Category Archives: Twitter

Pinker, Stewart Brand, Charlatans, Syria, Godel-Popper, Erdogan, Mathematica, Elections | Twitter

@nntaleb Pinker like charlatans talks to the press but no technical work.@sapinker is a BS artist. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say pic.twitter.com/50YrAt70kR Permalink 12:56 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pinker has about every attribute of the charlatan. Nothing short of a charlatan. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/765546814384799744 Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Steady “Arabization” of Syria, away from its rich Syro-Greco-Aramaic heritage via schooling; shd reverse after Saudi bankruptcy. Permalink 12:46 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1)The tension in Syria has antecedent:1000 y tension SyroPhoenician Graeco-Roman v/s desert Arabs; cities vs desert.pic.twitter.com/jMvid2I2a3 Permalink 12:33 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Have I ever been subtle with my opinions? @JRLV_Inc Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The elephant may misbehave on the occasion (particularly during hormonal episodes) but he is not a predator. Permalink 10:16 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Stewart Brand, you are not a scientist, you are a shrill and a charlatan. @stewartbrand @dawallach @berggruenInst http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 10:05 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Refine your mind, avoiding BS, journos,& statistical noise to the point that a logical flaw/nonsense sound like a jarring note in a concert. Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is NOT Pascal’s wager! @carlosortegap http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 9:01 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rule: No brain surgery for aheadache if painkiller (or a night’s sleep) can do. #GMOs: a risky unscientific scam.https://twitter.com/michaelpollan/status/765248478851239936 Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A paper to present to @DrCirillo at his conference in Leiden. With mistakes.pic.twitter.com/O3aA8AvR02 Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (intellectuals yet idiots) in UK condem screening of Salafis but ignore bullying/murder of apostates/hate speechhttps://twitter.com/Iram_Ramzan/status/765261728204587008 Permalink 12:51 PM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Plautus: “Eru’meus elephanti corio circumtentust” My master has the *skin of an elephant* @bradd_libby Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Elephant. My favorite animal: takes no crap, gives no crap, harms no-one but when one tries to harm it, never forgets. Permalink 11:18 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Guess (an animal)https://twitter.com/oinkbaamoo/status/765245086619828224 Permalink 11:03 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb All books have animals now in UK @JamesNamorpic.twitter.com/j6LMapwKyN Permalink 10:31 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thing for squid Ink went too far. Publisher asked “what animal on the cover of Antifragile?” I said “squid!”. Close.pic.twitter.com/bOYrhrwO2X Permalink 10:06 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Tolerance (intellectual): Pagan Gr-Roman>Christian(Orth)~Muslim (Shiite)~Secular> Protestant>Christian (Cath)>Atheist>Muslim (Salafi). True? Permalink 9:56 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Looks like my obsession with squid ink is backfiring, trivializing the philter via mainstream commercialization.https://twitter.com/o_liveco/status/765216026820837380 Permalink 9:11 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual yet idiot) @billkristol w/peers blew up Iraq & Lybia. No apologies, no learning, no #Skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/765154912548294656 Permalink 8:51 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@GhassanDahhan A message from an Algerian woman who was put on a Salafi death-list: No tolerance for the intolerants! (@nntaleb)pic.twitter.com/Zqq2sYZ23l Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016”https://medium.com/@nntaled/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.bfhrwes8k Permalink 6:07 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Friends, does anyone know this book? “On Monotheistic Violence”.pic.twitter.com/qjxNZTQtoA Permalink 4:48 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Much of what we hear on Syria is propaganda by PR firms/Arab journos. For our paper saw War accounts oft unreliable.https://storify.com/MoonofA/how-the-aleppo-hospitals Permalink 11:59 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Student days.pic.twitter.com/9c4qbugqlJ Permalink 5:30 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority”https://medium.com/@nntaled/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.cq32okfgf Permalink 5:29 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Godel-Popper rule: No freedom to the enemies of freedom No rights to the enemies of rights No democracy to the enemies of democracy Kapish? Permalink 4:01 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Car ahead of me with SQUIDINK license plate. Trying to make contact, get recipes, restaurant names …pic.twitter.com/40UHd6ypEj Permalink 3:41 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@alancliddell @nntaleb Calvin and Muad’Dib:pic.twitter.com/QeutuwekaR Permalink 3:15 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Salafis in France have the nerve to use French freedom of dress to block antiburkini laws.http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2016/08/13/le-tribunal-administratif-valide-l-arrete-municipal-bannissant-le-burkini-a-cannes_4982397_3224.html Permalink 3:14 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ In 1818, the Ottomans beheaded Wahabi boss Ibn Saud, forcing him to listen to music (banned by Wahabis). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_bin_Saud Permalink 2:21 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154053650028375 Permalink 11:12 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I am allergic to the term”contrarian”. Assumes a contrary opinion on everything, the opposite of critical thinking. Kapish? @AlanInterface Permalink 10:06 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pre-1918, 2 centers of Islam: Istanbul v/s Wahabis. West (UK) supported Wahabi revolt. If Erdogan brings back Istanbul, much, much better! Permalink 7:29 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thou Shalt Not use Publick Service to Collect Speaking Fees. (Skin in the Game)pic.twitter.com/X35gMq2dc0 Permalink 7:05 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Small differences in sigma/errors blow up a 6-sigma by a huge “yuge” amount @D0YouEvenSplash @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/nPeL4uNMwN Permalink 6:32 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Here shows comparisons of convavity between n-iterated logthms and power functions @5upercrabpic.twitter.com/KBPdshFodr Permalink 5:20 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Even if IQ is measurable, tail IQ would not be beyond the category “very high”. (Variance in extremes, Vega/delta)https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/760688453218660352 Permalink 3:24 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jeff Holman, the incompetent risk manager who went after Antifragile is now w/ @SentientDAI in “intelligent”systems https://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.2524.pdf Permalink 5:33 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@MarkVirag Wow this is good http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-global-elites-forsake-their-countrymen-1470959258 what @nntaleb would call “no skin in the game”pic.twitter.com/Rrg2kOfLdx Permalink 2:53 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Sunk cost fallacy is only fallacy for specific series of independent bets. @rorysutherland @alexvgeorgiev @TriversRobert @jasonacollins Permalink 5:18 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Boris IV, let’s end the cold war and focus on the Wahabi cancer.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/764070804296314880 Permalink 5:16 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb These pple, like 538, are not getting that a poll is an *estimator*, hence tracking error pulls it towards 50%. @tomgg @zhaep @neilchriss Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Math du jour: nesting functions for iterated logarithms, the perfect concave but unbounded function.pic.twitter.com/ohPgT4Zuzs Permalink 4:56 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Olympics: Greek ideal of ἀρετή, at human scale. Circus: exploitation of deformities, unscaled Current Olympics: exploitation of deformities! Permalink 3:23 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pierre de Jean Olivi, 13th Century.https://twitter.com/RichardMoorhead/status/764000633431076865 Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Block someone logically defective w/low-self esteem & you have an overactive hater for life: cheapest possible advertising money can buy. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I wish someone could spot an error in the paper. Getting worried as presenting it in 3 weeks!https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/763790101310738432 Permalink 3:30 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@Trader_Moe Taleb has shown it takes only a tiny intransigent minority to rule larger culture: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf https://twitter.com/WatchSharia/status/763648926889177088 Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb OK, now <3%. [correcting # of Protestants in France rose in past 2 decades] Permalink 6:25 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs, vol 2. @Roman_Latkovic Permalink 6:20 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Never imagined that, in 2016, people selfdefined on the “left” would be in favor of repression, cronyism, lobbies, elitism, &… Salafism ! Permalink 4:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Overconfidence:”I lost money because of my excessive confidence”,Erasmus citing Theognis, Epicharmus @rorysutherlandpic.twitter.com/c5vjFqVrRH Permalink 3:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ most erudite men of all time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Justus_Scaliger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Casaubon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Bayle 4th is Cath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Daniel_Huet Permalink 2:30 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb FactTduJour: 3 out of the 4 most erudite Frenchmen in history: Casaubon, Scaliger, & Bayle were Protestant. Protestants today<1% of France. Permalink 2:17 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Weightlifting is not for thin people. Overoptimized for weight, hence fragile! @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 2:13 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Psychological findings that are nonBS have to be #LindyEffect compatible http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm @rorysutherlandpic.twitter.com/tXNAqF4Tpe Permalink 1:58 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Saudi approach: hire a PR firm to “improve their image” rather than just evolve Like Monsanto Anyone interested in perception will go bust Permalink 3:59 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I would stop actually later, at the French Moralists (La Rochefoucault…). See Elster for catalogue. @rorysutherland Permalink 3:47 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The bet: if psychological finding is NOT in the classics <Montaigne, it is not real. Cog disson was in Aesop. #LindyEffect @rorysutherland Permalink 3:43 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Notes on one of Elster’s books. He is the MAIN social science thinker; gets Lindy Effect @avermeule @biillybpic.twitter.com/KMYP3kNCz8 Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Yemen, unlike Saudi Barbaria & Syrian “rebels”, does not have a PR firm in DC. Journos are told what is important.https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/763484556167118848 Permalink 2:56 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indeed, Eastern Aramaic used as “husband.” <= fertility! @alexshd @funtime_bobby @holland_tompic.twitter.com/oPqOa1NYlb Permalink 2:46 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Baal like Adon (=>Adonis) interpreted as “Lord” in Canaanite. Baal Mammon, Baalat Gebala… “Baal shem tov” = Lord w/ gd name @holland_tom Permalink 2:35 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@CCavafy When they saw Patroklos dead —so brave and strong, so young— the horses of Achilles began to weep. Permalink 6:20 AM – 12 Dec 2014

@CCavafy Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey. Without her you would not have set out. She has nothing left to give you now. Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Dec 2015

@nntaleb The New Fourth Estate is Wikileaks. You don’t mess with the New Fourth Estate. The Old Fourth Estate, no problem.https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/763380671796678656 Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The sicarii were into political assassination, not harming children. @iMetaldog @ayhanusa Permalink 7:17 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The ones on Paganism-to-Christianity I REread is Robert Lane Fox https://www.amazon.com/PAGANS-CHRISTIANS-Robin-Lane-Fox/dp/0394554957/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470834898&sr=1-3&keywords=robin+lane+fox and Peter Brown’s https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393958035/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 @tcoe13 Permalink 6:18 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Another account of early paganism-Christianity: https://www.amazon.com/Conflict-Religions-Early-Roman-Empire-ebook/dp/B007K0QKWK/ref=la_B001K8IPNU_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470828969&sr=1-2#nav-subnav @tcoe13 Permalink 4:38 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Derivations of how to make and update election forecasts without BS. Trying @WolframResearch new release Mathematicapic.twitter.com/VSLtigZqz3 Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I always block people for Sophistry. Simple allergy. Let me know when a devout Orthodox blows up a bus full of infidel children. @ayhanusa Permalink 3:02 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Salafis preach in schools (incl. in Europe) that Shiites, atheists, pagans, classicists, (often) Christians/Jews are infidel deviants. Permalink 2:37 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb It is NOT racism to discriminate against people dressed according to a sect that discriminates against “infidels”, that is, you. Permalink 2:29 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@lhfang Mike Morrell, CIA director who endorsed Hillary, is literally paid by a Hillary consulting firm for weapons makershttp://interc.pt/1mrWtdg Permalink 6:50 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The “no arbitrage” equality forces the error on binary to ->0 which matchers Brier in discrete 1shots @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlock Permalink 1:26 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This is the rigorous proof on way to make time estimates @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/rC3MgfGXDO Permalink 1:23 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Literalism: Few pagans believed in the myths. R L Fox see also Veyne (Skin in the game)pic.twitter.com/HHnJcSkUH4 Permalink 5:15 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@DrCirillo Experts (?) who rely on PIT estimates to forecast things they do not understand, and @nntaleb debunking them. Priceless and funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has nothing to do with race but dressing like members of a violently intolerant subsect: Salafism @artaphernes Permalink 3:18 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb There is a .00001 correlation between what I said and this headline. Headline editors …https://twitter.com/yahoofinance/status/762641774707937280 Permalink 2:59 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If you lower false positives, you cause more risks (false negative). Sorry, pol correct pple, but risk is risk.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/762925184688988160 Permalink 1:42 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris is an energy neutral city.pic.twitter.com/7Vnmnv6xR2 Permalink 1:30 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Levantine: ana/inté/inté/hu/hi/nihna/into(n)/into(n)/hinné/hinné. Note é @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:51 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The basics: nun used in NW Semitic as in Levantine. @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlestickspic.twitter.com/5of2FME8SO Permalink 12:45 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Levantine has the same verb forms as Aramaic http://arshama.classics.ox.ac.uk/downloads/Aramaic%20Skeleton%20Grammar%2004%20(Strong%20Verb).pdf @candela3paz @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb No, Levantine is from older source than Arabic http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:05 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Great news: Arabic writing is starting to vanish from Christian areas in Lebanon. A cop had “POLICE” on his shirt.pic.twitter.com/mrYa5w0t3d Permalink 10:37 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb You are NOT getting that your Brier is a Norm L2 distance minimizer. Stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. @PTetlock Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Completely wrrrong. The norm L-2 distance is MINIMIZED by lowering estimator variance, Hence my method @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/8kKzVn8pCX Permalink 7:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless!pic.twitter.com/zUfnNTnji6 Permalink 7:24 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris: a school named after a high school dropout; rebellious poem on the wall. Did they notice the contradiction?pic.twitter.com/dD2sRoHWLR Permalink 3:16 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jet Lag: Proved that mean rises for ALL power laws when alpha stochastic, discussion w @financequant, @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/M8dGwDmWLh Permalink 1:10 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) More expamplespic.twitter.com/LtUKpQrJ3V Permalink 12:34 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to elections.pic.twitter.com/gbq1pqtkEJ Permalink 12:26 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/0mXzIuw17l Permalink 12:23 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A volatile spot makes the binary⇩↑ .50 (4m expiration) to ↓vol of binary (metaprobability) @Chris_arnade. Kapish?https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/762376801209425920 Permalink 2:06 PM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The child of jet lag: how uncertainty makes violence worse, supplement to paper w @DrCirillo (with errors…)pic.twitter.com/aPvl6Dvxcp Permalink 12:24 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes)pic.twitter.com/LghTxDRN3b Permalink 3:12 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@FiveThirtyEight, Salafis Jihadists, Amioun, Piketty, Averroes, Kadisha Valley, The Right | Twitter

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@nntaleb Bingo! Option traders get it! When probabilities are stochastic, they become ~.50. And they don’t move fast!https://twitter.com/VlanciPictures/status/762036480466415617 Permalink 2:25 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish? (metaprobability). Permalink 2:13 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it. Permalink 2:11 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability. Permalink 2:09 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Cont “This thing we call religion” https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154031983368375 pic.twitter.com/kvFnQKeYdd Permalink 1:29 PM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (To hide truth is to hide gold) la vérité est cachee au fond du puits Σιγάν την αλήθειαν χρυσόν εστι θάπτεινhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/761981751656849408 Permalink 11:57 AM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bon on recommence: Le grand ne rappetisse pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink 1:05 AM – 6 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Infallible way to catch Salafis Jihadists at a checkpoint: ask them to crack a joke.Salafis, by definition, are devoid of any sense of humor Permalink 11:51 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In French it works well @ArmandDAngour : Le grand ne rappetit pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink 3:26 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The small will never make you feel great; the great will never make you fee small. ( الزغير ما بكبٌر والكبير ما بزغٌر) Better translation Permalink 3:09 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The small can’t see greatness; the great doesn’t know smallness. ( الزغير ما بكبٌر والكبير ما بزغٌر)https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/761679663001468929 Permalink 3:02 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Ez z’3ir ma bi kabber w l’kbir ma mi za’3’3er. Permalink 2:45 PM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To assume that academic economists are “experts” on anything requires total empirical blindness. @yoramdw @JustinWolfers Permalink 8:28 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (Skin in the Game) Permalink 8:23 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This IYI (Intellectual yet Idiot) doesn’t realize absence of academic economists is a very positive thing.#realworldhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/761536433756798976 Permalink 8:22 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A pilgrimage to my great-gr-gr-gr-gr-grandfather’s house in Amiounpic.twitter.com/sD9XZkOuYD Permalink 7:01 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Proper statistical causation: Take a cohort of readers & PREVENT some randomly selected from reading. Kapish? @amsterdamtrader @Silva Permalink 5:36 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rohan, the NYT idiots (IYI) got it backward. Those who live longer necessarily have a longer functioning intellectual/visual ability @Silva Permalink 5:15 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In distributed environments: Militias >>armies, commandos >>tanks Groups(Hayekian) >>Soviet & farmers >> Monsanto!https://twitter.com/MKM_Abdul/status/761409231304077312 Permalink 3:10 AM – 5 Aug 2016

@nntaleb As to the Gini, fugedaboudit. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/GINI-1.pdf @NessimAitKacimi Permalink 3:03 PM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Piketty more than challenged: in addition his measure of inequality is flawed @NessimAitKacimipic.twitter.com/Kw2yuN09CH Permalink 2:55 PM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The problem w Mainstream Media: unlike book authors, journos are mostly worried about the opinions of other journos, not those of readers. Permalink 2:20 AM – 4 Aug 2016

@G_Exercitus How can @zerohedge be more professional than MSM? @joshua_landis @MaxAbrahms @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/761079273704665089 Permalink 1:03 AM – 4 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Factdujour: Averroes (IbnRushd) was unpublished in Arabic bef 1859, while 100s of eds in Latin! [The grrrreat Renan]pic.twitter.com/MVyHxN1hXB Permalink 4:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI don’t get techné-epistemé: scientist making statements abt practical matters is not like a plumber on plumbing.https://twitter.com/AcademicsSay/status/760969384106029057 Permalink 3:46 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Mala grammatica non vitiat chartam @dottorpax Permalink 3:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If I ran for office, I’d avoid public statements that don’t entail personal risks in making them. Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Max knows his stuff.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/760850229029539840 Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Kadisha Valley near Ehden, 19 km from Amioun (and 20 degrees F cooler).pic.twitter.com/i99s0M4PaC Permalink 7:05 AM – 3 Aug 2016

@nntaleb We don’t know what we talk about when we say “Religion”. Salafis (& most atheists) take religion literally.pic.twitter.com/I1ZhUT3ye6 Permalink 8:26 AM – 2 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indians left to starve in Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/assaadrazzouk/status/760130259119443968 Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2) So have some imagination and do not rule out a two-way mess in Europe.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/760139675713634304 Permalink 8:48 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb As a child,I never imagined that Sunni girls wd trade miniskirts for hijab & boys would blow themselves up to get on GoogleNews. #BlackSwan Permalink 8:46 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@lukasnaugle “You can’t have 1) voting rights, 2) social media, and 3) patronizing elite at once…” @nntaleb Permalink 5:22 AM – 1 Aug 2016

@nntaleb My prediction, particularly for Europe. Eventually, violence never stays 1-way. (@zerohedge )pic.twitter.com/ELbVMmQrIb Permalink 6:36 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Finally, results for the preasymptotics of semi-fat tailed & fat tailed distributions for @DrCirillo’s conferencepic.twitter.com/b7POA4952o Permalink 4:39 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Enough mass to do a …coup in Germany?https://twitter.com/MilenaRodban/status/759879379220475904 Permalink 3:48 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@joshua_landis As the Saudis Covered Up Abuses in Yemen, America Stood Byhttp://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/saudi-arabia-yemen-russia-syria-foreign-policy-united-nations-blackmail-214124 Permalink 12:58 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Localismhttps://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/759779327428923392 Permalink 12:11 PM – 31 Jul 2016

@ideallyspace @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ISqpg2kgN6 Permalink 3:43 AM – 31 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Right wants one $ one vote. The IYI (intellectual yet idiot) Left wants one degree one vote. The rest of us want one person one vote. Permalink 1:46 PM – 30 Jul 2016

Horace, Frauds, SaudiBarbaria, Syria, Salafi, Jihadis, Monsanto, Mr Bradford, Gulenists, Turkey, Drezner | Twitter

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@nntaleb Horace translated by Fat Tony: “Those you meet on the way up, you will also meet on the way down.” @ArmandDAngour @TijlDeconynck Permalink 9:56 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This Epistle is Gold. @ArmandDAngourpic.twitter.com/tslgg8xuWs Permalink 9:39 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Federal Reserve: Stultorum incurata pudor malus ulcera celat [Horace] The fool through excess modesty hides his wound instead of healing it. Permalink 9:15 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/You don’t become economist by accident but genetic mutation: low curiosity/erudition, inability to be bored by boring stuff, colorlessness Permalink 8:37 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Who would you avoid in a street fight? A young economist who looks like an economist A 75 y.o. who deadlift >405 lbs Permalink 8:07 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Incorporating 3ashura in Skin in the Game: “qorban” @ban_kanj @faleflixpic.twitter.com/EGjszWuo24 Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Friends are easy I need interesting enemies. @Spfannenschmidt Permalink 5:33 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Pesticide (herbicide, insecticide,etc.) is systematically giving nature antibiotics followed by chemotherapy, & claim “no evidence” of harm. Permalink 5:30 AM – 30 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ok, more squid ink (it’s Friday)pic.twitter.com/UPsch6QjGr Permalink 6:20 PM – 29 Jul 2016

@Trader_Moe Only Taleb can uncover the connection btwn GMO & Soviet utopianism–both the product of idiot intellectuals.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/759080918392901632 Permalink 11:50 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb One should call IYI people just what they are: Intellectuals Yet Idiots. @AdamThierer @hbkazemi33 @calestouspic.twitter.com/ciiTgLio2l Permalink 10:39 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb السرج المدهّب ما بيعمل من الحمار حصانhttps://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/759068152546390016 Permalink 10:34 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Barba no facit philosophumhttps://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/759068152546390016 Permalink 10:05 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony on Michael Bloomberg: “The man has never been self-owned; he is one of those who get more dependent as they get richer”. Permalink 9:13 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ When you have skin in the game, boring things like checking the safety of the aircraft cease to be boring. @nntaleb Permalink 9:03 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Exactly the point!!!https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/759046438743527426 Permalink 8:33 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nothing can be both boring and truly important. Permalink 8:21 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that Islamic contract law contains terms that are > Latin than Greek; Latin was used in Beirut School of Law. @Nb1769 @ByzantJustice Permalink 7:54 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For fellow funded by Saudi$, investigate U.S.Wahabi preacher Joe Bradford. Hides under Xtian name @joebradfordnet @sylvainlp @GhassanDahhan Permalink 5:50 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paula, check this (3eli not Eliahu) for similarities. (The sect after death of sons). Hidden religion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eli_(biblical_figure) @schmittpaula Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The French are starting to grow a mini-brain. But take the idea to its logical consequence: Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/GhassanDahhan/status/758994334033195010 Permalink 5:21 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Low tech solutions (unlike GMOs) have no side effects! How ‘Ugly’ Fruits and Vegetables Can Help Solve World Hungerhttp://on.natgeo.com/1Wemto5 Permalink 4:20 AM – 29 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My review of Wolfram’s book https://www.amazon.com/review/R13FZJNTCNN34Q/ref=cm_cr_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=1579550037 Permalink 5:14 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Twitter friends, anyone knows of a Cat Bond ETF? Thanks. Permalink 2:48 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Religious Texts are never precise enough–which explains longevity. “The devil can quote the scriptures for his own case” @candela3paz Permalink 2:06 PM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The frauds I am currently exposing: +GMOs +Salafism/SaudiBarbaria +Fallacies by IYI class: Pinker, economists, etc. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Severe error to look at texts; observe social/political behavior. Shiites act like Westerners (Catholicism of 50s) @schmittpaula @mtpollack Permalink 7:55 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) The error by West to classify Salafis as “religion”( #SaudiBarbaria propaganda); shd be criminalized as genocidal political movement. Permalink 7:49 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The regulation of the cults by the state was proposed by Plato in Laws. Nobody cared for 800 y. Salafism an old ideapic.twitter.com/RXoezTkpzS Permalink 7:31 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb More probable that the source had a genetic mutation than the proba being unconditionally low. @John1ODea Permalink 7:00 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Intellectual life is infected w/ignorant BS vendors s.a. @michaelshermer who called Pinker’s book “well documented”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/758648675203776513 Permalink 6:21 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Armenians of Aleppo among the Christians and minorities extreminated in Syria.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/724705703059972096 Permalink 6:06 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont): Where Pinker is “not even wrong”: HIS data do not match HIS statements. BS Vending. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say pic.twitter.com/63PAfnw6LC Permalink 6:01 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Collecting comments on draft paper on decline of violence (Why Pinker’s thesis is *not even wrong* to be science).https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say Permalink 5:06 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To perpetuate a lie, you must whisper it, not shout it. Permalink 4:35 AM – 28 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Explain your logical flaw: of course they have missiles pointed at us SINCE we are not allies. @spencer_chen Permalink 3:53 PM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Iocus Russicae: Si Donaldus ascendit, Hilaria perdiderit Permalink 10:45 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “My friend”: 1) politicians: anybody, 2) pple: friend 2) namedropper: a hotshot, 2) mafia: another member, 3) me: I forgot his first name. Permalink 10:04 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@TheBrowser “Always apologise, except when you have done something wrong” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:17 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Someone explain in clear logical terms why the US has an alliance w/Saudi Barbaria, but refuses one with Russia on grounds of “democracy”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (Version 2, longer) People don’t know what they are talking about when they say “religion”.pic.twitter.com/JX4G9OWL9G Permalink 6:12 AM – 27 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Hope Sanchuniathon (in Levantine,Atallah) could exist somewhere in the Syriac stacks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanchuniathon Permalink 6:40 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Was asked w/my anti-Salafi activism to worry about safety. Wahabis can’t do targeted killing. Too low IQ. Only 87 y.o.s & random children. Permalink 4:36 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@DavidBCollum And Hillary’s bribes from sovereign states are not attempts to influence the election?https://twitter.com/Slate/status/758075479458979840 Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Just like cancer stop it before the multiplicative effect. Too late otherwise.https://twitter.com/hanscees/status/758060298947424256 Permalink 3:25 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Typo: I meant “by opposition to “superstitio Permalink 2:14 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (Cont) No term for religion in Greek (just cults) & in latin it meant superstitio (fear of gods). 3rd reading!pic.twitter.com/qIUV3DaJiz Permalink 2:02 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Unlike in France, there are only two types of Jihadis in Lebanon. Those who are incarcerated, & those who have been …liquidated. Permalink 12:43 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb About to spend a few days in France & Lebanon. In France my risk detector is always on alert. Never in Lebanon. Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb NEVER engage Salafis&Co online. Expose then block them. The Jesuits, uberrethoricians, failed to convert a single 1.https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/757981820898140160 Permalink 11:24 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Closer to transfats! @trishankkarthik @calestous Permalink 10:33 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Conditional on act of terrorism, what’s the probability of person being Salafi? 99.9% P[A|B] not P[B|A]. Now I can block you. @SaraAssaf Permalink 9:03 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb >99.9% of targeted Euro/US civilians in past 18y by Salafi/Wahabis yet some try equivalence w/Shiism. crypto #ISIS sympathizers @SaraAssaf Permalink 8:47 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A 60 year program of top-down secularization in Syria& Mesopotamia & 100Y in Turkey has led to worsening. @British_Aladdin @AlMesopotamian Permalink 8:40 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Basically the minority rule doesn’t harm in mixed populations. @yaneerbaryam has shown effects of cantons. @British_Aladdin @AlMesopotamian Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paradoxically, in places like Syria where they are native, I would give them their own municipalities, & isolate the rest. @British_Aladdin Permalink 8:31 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem is also “measured” & fake-scholars Qatar-Wahabi funded propagandists s.a. Shadi Hamid @shadihamid invading think tanks s.a Brookings Permalink 8:16 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont)Godel-Popper argument: Tolerating the intolerant leads to collapse http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf To do with Salafis? Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb OK, this is the flaneurmobilepic.twitter.com/yLgh4ADsOM Permalink 7:17 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Should I show a picture of my car the flaneurmobile, Yes/No? @WriterPb Permalink 7:00 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Monsanto Shill Juma produces a perfect illustration of a severe IYI reasoning error @Calestous @trishankkarthikpic.twitter.com/B3efJC9i07 Permalink 6:55 AM – 26 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In 2010, closed Twitter acct to focus on Antifragile. Worked! Reopened 11/2012 to punish BS reviewers For SITG shd I Permalink 1:17 PM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Excellent! Convexity effects contradict mean-field/naive evol.@yaneerbaryam @gwaconstable @Plektix @Corina_tarnitapic.twitter.com/J3jfHOuSW0 Permalink 10:58 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Look at the metaproba! Same BS as Jay Ulfedler’s @dtchimp “mathematical model”. @philipbstark @johndurantpic.twitter.com/5pHyJyLLVw Permalink 10:11 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Which probabilities are decidable? Which ones are balloney? @philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurantpic.twitter.com/Gdy8L0wjL1 Permalink 9:54 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafism: Imagine religion having intolerant beliefs about the State; the State having intolerant beliefs about religion, together. @fpoling Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Sorry, pal, but the Sultans had Qanun laws that were of Byzantine origin & separate from Sharia. @Nb1769 Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The idea is: to be “decidable”, error on probability < error on exp. payoff @philipbstark @ReekRend @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurant Permalink 8:51 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@republicofmath I like this message from @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ZzdBxxWyPv Permalink 7:44 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Probability” following the path of maestros Freedman and Stark @philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurantpic.twitter.com/NTTjyOGNaL Permalink 7:06 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2) so the ignorance is not just with Christianity; it is to the point that Salafizers talk about Shiite thought without the slightest grasp Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) My experience w/Salafi and Co: could not find one w/erudition outside Islamic studies; they get lost in “meta” discussions of religion. Permalink 6:17 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@philipbstark @PhillipsPasha @mtracey @johndurant @nntaleb Point is “chance Trump wins” meaningless. See https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/Preprints/611.pdf re earthquake probability Permalink 1:22 AM – 25 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Meaning absurd to direct “Islamophobia” at Shiites when they act differently. Shd be Salafiphobia. Kapish? @TheBobber Permalink 11:08 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For those of you on a hot summer day want to stroll on a beach, this is the way to do it. Takes some training.https://youtu.be/eTm0X93l8vk Permalink 10:44 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No”discussion” w/Salafis & Co: the Jesuits tried for 400 y & Jesuits couldn’t convert *a single one* you won’t change his mind on twitter. Permalink 10:07 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Anyone has some backgrounds on Brookings boy Shadi Hamid @shadihamid? Something smells funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Monotheistic (Abrahamic) religions are by definition exclusive hence intolerant; unless they recycle pagan creeds.https://twitter.com/primeargument/status/757240531462127616 Permalink 8:51 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is not a zen proverb but an antisemitic qoranic verse. @DPrabhata Permalink 8:13 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Islamists think their “expertise” allows debating me on religion, as if memorizing multiplication tables made one a mathematician. Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Act most probabilistitic inequalities are missing from Ineq books. Wiki has a great list to compile from. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_inequalities#Probability_theory_and_statistics @alxpr1c3 Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Christian Aramaic (Syriac) separates church from law by using the Greek *nomos* in place of the Aramaic “Din”.pic.twitter.com/VCcdcKa6aO Permalink 5:58 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic meaning of “Din”: all of it = *law*. Remarkably Christian Aramaic uses Nomos for law:separation church/statepic.twitter.com/4uEdKvKcqA Permalink 5:52 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Original meaning of “Religion” in Arabic “Din” = law. Hard to explain “secular but religious” to a Salafi.pic.twitter.com/hWpOu9xau5 Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Malta they write a similar language to Shami in latin alphabet. It works! Permalink 5:58 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb So Mr Bradford you have been getting money from Saudi Sources. I have no more use for you. @joebradfordnet Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Bradford are you financed by Saudi Arabia, yes/no @joebradfordnet Permalink 3:55 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Bradford 1) Is your Salafi preaching financed in any way by Saudi Arabia? 2) Were you born or converted? @joebradfordnet Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ahman Al-Shathry you keep anwering w/incomprehensible tirades. Are you Salafi/Wahabi, Yes/No? @Abunass3r Permalink 2:11 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Is is Yes or No? Just one word in English. @Abunass3r Permalink 2:02 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Ahmad Al-shathry, can you give a straight answer: Yes/No are you a Salafi/Wahabi? @Abunass3r Permalink 1:58 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr. AlSlathry @Abunass3r are you a Salafi/Wahabi, Yes/No?https://twitter.com/Abunass3r/status/756938621379371008 Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No worship without Skin in the Game. The Gods don’t like Cheap Tawk.pic.twitter.com/0DUQ7EWuIJ Permalink 1:24 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is meant to show random violence is only Salafis, not Shiite, Sufi or Sunni-secular. @Streitapfel Permalink 12:26 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Le me rephrase: How many Protestant, Shiites, Sufis, that is, nonSalafis have blown up random people in Europe in 2016? @bollywig @raggedtag Permalink 12:22 PM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In 2010 summarized The Black Swan in 2nd ed. as few were getting it & talked without knowing what it was about…https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/756903331474309120 Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How many Buddhists murder for ‘religion” ?@bollywig @raggedtag Permalink 10:36 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb #Turkey: the press is confused; the purge isn’t against securalists but Gulenists, another type of Islamists. Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb What is unacademic abt Leibnitz: he was incapable of working on subjects w/o big substance; even when commissioned to do historical work. Permalink 8:23 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb La7azt ma3 murasalete inno el3alam ahyanlon yista3mlo el-latini [cognitive effort] @CatnissEvercute @Priapus_D Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala le’3a Ma fi le’3a bala adab – Hayde ‘3altet Antun s3ade Sha3bna bye7ke sheme biyektob/biye2ra Inglisi msh 3arabe @Priapus_D Permalink 5:23 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala legha. Hayde ghaltet Antun S3adeh. @Priapus_D Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You cannot talk about antifragile anecdotes without link to the necessary central link to convexity.https://www.academia.edu/26660005/_Anti_Fragility_and_Convex_Responses_in_Medicine Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Economist rediscovering Antifragile …and poorly.https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/756802988648361984 Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 7ada bi3alle2 3a tarjemte?pic.twitter.com/6bVgAmRyaQ Permalink 4:43 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Bil Shami ma3 el 7arf el latinepic.twitter.com/ezHefPzTSJ Permalink 4:19 AM – 23 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Meaning 100% iatrogenics. Think of a pilot who randomly pilots a plane. 100% crash. @Blacklabellogic Permalink 4:38 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 100% for thhttps://twitter.com/blacklabellogic/status/756632506783375360 Permalink 4:32 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb An evening (pre-squid) ink with the indispensable Tom Holland @holland_tompic.twitter.com/ZhI39WPKLy Permalink 4:28 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Malta yok” Fughedaboudit in Turkish, “there is no such thing as Malta”, used in the Levant, partic. my grandparents’ generation. Permalink 3:33 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Mr Tashdemir,you mean they did not brutalize Antifragile? @tasdemirm Permalink 12:43 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb They likely brutalized the newly published Turkish version of *Antifragile*; we can test if it gets stronger.https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/status/756410873955090432 Permalink 12:35 PM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Trump’s nomination proves a rule: *The most flawed of risk takers is more real than the most qualified deadfish.* Find another risk taker! Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Three meanings of SHRB in Aramaic. Third is to spread. @menlebenpic.twitter.com/d8w69lmFdR Permalink 11:08 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Discovered Sharbel is not Sharb El = Story of God but Glow of God. @menlebenpic.twitter.com/pNQi1Ld7oz Permalink 11:03 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Answered my own question & derived the Mills ratio for Pearson class of distributions. [could be typos]http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1864278/inverse-mills-ratio-for-non-normal-distributions/1867758#1867758 Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For Fat Tony f*** you money is working a job with downtime room meditation & , s a security guard & doing science on the side @alanklement Permalink 8:38 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The case for f*** you money before doing scienxe.https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/756489176007180288 Permalink 8:14 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@forsaken911 Sadly, the 9/11 victims and survivors need a PR machine. Saudi Arabia’s PR machine… http://interc.pt/29Q1uaj by @lhfang Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Then they should learn to keep their mouth shut. Good discipline when you don’t intend to do anything. @hbkazemi33 @FedericaMog Permalink 6:43 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No communiqué by empty suits does anything unless accompanied w/sanctions. Not threats, actions. Doesn’t have to be military. @F1Ruaraidh Permalink 6:16 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Talk talk talk. IYI bureaucrats. Better keep silent UNLESS you do something (like Puting, Erdogan). Kapish?https://twitter.com/FedericaMog/status/756174592608272384 Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that this scene dates 3 years *after* Fat Tony’s advice in Antifragile. Permalink 5:42 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The main advice Fat Tony will give you: from the position of f*** you money (John Goodman in The Gambler)https://youtu.be/xdfeXqHFmPI Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Jul 2016

@yaneerbaryam A brief note: Why Silver was tripped up on Trumppic.twitter.com/nwejso8GUG Permalink 7:04 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note that brko/brkto is corrupted in Levantine: rikbo/rikbto. @menleben @holland_tom Permalink 7:30 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Concluding the Daniel Drezner: @dandrezner is poster boy of the IYI class:totally clueless & no accountability #SITGhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/746879505659207680 Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Note afo (face) we use “afa” back [wesh = face] @menleben Permalink 7:24 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb رجعت حليمة لعادتا القديمة! @ArmandDAngour Permalink 6:12 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@ArmandDAngour @nntaleb nice! Cf. Horace (Epist.1.X.24)’naturam expelles furca, tamen usque recurret’, expel nature with a pitchfork, it will always return Permalink 5:58 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Syriachttps://twitter.com/menleben/status/756111974811959297 Permalink 6:03 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Chassez le naturel il revient au gallop. Permalink 5:46 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Likewise when I block someone for trolling, I automatically block all his followers.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/755865542460837888 Permalink 5:05 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Turkey: Failure of secularization from the top (so for Syria and Iraq). Iran: the reverse? Permalink 4:22 AM – 21 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I never compromise, never with ethics. @zayn_300 @farnamstreet Permalink 4:42 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@lukasnaugle “When conflicted between two choices, take neither.” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/TinN9udF0u Permalink 1:17 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No type 2 error: Congress of 1934,minority of 1288 delegates voted anonymously ag Staln. He killed almot all of 1288pic.twitter.com/AM6MYeJqoF Permalink 1:42 PM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A heuristic method to price American Options, part of my deck of unpublished results @EmanuelDerman @iMetaldogpic.twitter.com/F8Epc6p5F1 Permalink 11:11 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Gave a partial answer with proof for Inverse Mills Ratio. Now need to generalize to ALL dist.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/1864278/88078?stw=2 Permalink 10:56 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 5) Ramanujan’s m.o: intuition + endless trial-and-error. Computers don’t give direct intuition, but accelerate trials, feeding intuition. Permalink 9:29 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Do you think pandits know more? #IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiots) @davidharsanyi @Trader_Moe Permalink 8:59 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 4/Mathematica is bringing back the Babylonian way of doing math. What if Ramanujan had Mathematica? @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/oPelrRXaNg Permalink 8:57 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To evaluate the truthfulness of a statement requires statements of higher universality/abstraction. No “evidence” without probability theory Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Venetians were Franj but also Banadiqa (bunduqia), means also bastard or mixed parentage. Bandouq means shrewd.@FullTiltonic @holland_tom Permalink 5:57 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Arabic Med is Ba7r Er- Rum so: Rumi= Mediterranean Christian Franji= Northern European Sqalibi= Slav Farisi= Persian @holland_tom Permalink 5:35 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Coalition is *also* killing civilians in Syria. Why don’t we call Hollande a butcher? Because no Qatari PR firm?pic.twitter.com/EsHjLL7sCw Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Delenda Monsanto est.pic.twitter.com/x0lDhvBnr8 Permalink 4:14 PM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Agamemnon entering battle in state of madness. In the Iliad, both sides, Hector & Achilles are heroes.pic.twitter.com/awDPXD9Zgc Permalink 1:19 PM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb And here the wrath of Recep, not counting the death penaltyhttps://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/755416999451320320 Permalink 10:07 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb To listen to the Wrath of Achilles son of Peleus against Agammemnon son of Atrides in Attic Greekhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F7ZBqptugI Permalink 9:59 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Three thousand years ago, in the same location, the wrath of Achilleos … Μῆνιν ἄειδε, θεά, Πηληιάδεω Ἀχιλῆοςpic.twitter.com/weLBURfVLH Permalink 9:56 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Unsure: Some are ethnically Greek, most are mixed Phoenician-Greek-Ghassanids; same blood as Cypriots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiochian_Greek_Christians @tri_moreta Permalink 8:40 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb [Silver rule/Ethics] I am a minority (Greek Orthdx) & as such I don’t support Erdogan. If I were Sunni, would I support him? I can’t answer. Permalink 7:49 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The war agnst ISIS showed that an airforce is almost only useful against enemy with an airforce. Even less for coups. #Turkey @yaneerbaryam Permalink 6:41 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A probability question (for those into probability)http://math.stackexchange.com/q/1864278/88078?stw=2 Permalink 6:31 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It takes a diamond to cut a diamond @EmanuelDerman @carmi797 Permalink 6:07 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Italiano du jour: “chiodo schiaccia chiodo” @EmanuelDerman Permalink 5:05 AM – 19 Jul 2016

@RachelsNews All hands on deck ! please sign and RThttps://twitter.com/vtrighttoknow/status/755145245755580416 Permalink 7:58 PM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Policy pple @dandrezner et al. don’t realize “BS” isn’t expression of disagreement, but contempt, as w/astrologists.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/755051465719283712 Permalink 3:22 PM – 18 Jul 2016

@TalebBot We tend to define “rude” less by the words used (what is said) than by the status of the recipient (to whom it is addressed). Permalink 2:33 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Working with the nastiest of all probability distributions: Pearson family IV. Science is never closed.pic.twitter.com/GYSN5XVOot Permalink 11:52 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No, people are sensitive when they feel an ever so slight loss of privilege because of ethnicity, as in Leb/Syria. @LudWitt @joshua_landis Permalink 11:27 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For those interested in knowing why I am allergic to pol science BS entailing probabilitypic.twitter.com/YOOqh8ndlF Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb These are NOT generalizations. Disproportional power brings instability. Kapish? Only decentralization works. @joshua_landis @LudWitt Permalink 11:12 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Cycle: IRAQ: Sunni opprss Shias=>2004,Shias oprss Sunnis=>ISIS SYRIA: Sunni oprss Alawis=>Alws oprss Sunnis=>war.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/755091776738766851 Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Silver rule: I ask myself: if I were Sunni, what would make me a Salafi? 1) humiliation 2) intrusion 3) patronizing IYI. All these soluble. Permalink 8:42 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb That is not repentance. If Drezner were repentant, he would not be spewing geopolitical BS w/o #SITG. Kapish? @EmilArchambault @dandrezner Permalink 8:11 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb BS vendor Dan Drezner @dandrezner promoted Iraq war & still unrepentant. To protect society (#SITG) such pple shd Permalink 7:47 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The principle لك دينك و لي دينيhttps://twitter.com/HyperDupont/status/755036362198360064 Permalink 7:04 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 3) Hence proposed local autonomy for Islamists to be as Islamists as they want *in* their neighborhood, decentralization; they shd Amishify Permalink 6:19 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2) My impression talking to Islamists is that feel misunderstood by IYI bureaucrats, want to be left autonomous. Brcrts,talk to them. #SITG Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) When ISIS was still occupying parts of Tripoli, spent a day (hiding my accent) there, talking to sympathizers.pic.twitter.com/sITCpMvamY Permalink 6:09 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb One thing about Erdogan: those who like him *love* him. Like Brexiters, Islamists are those tired of the 100y patronizing secular IYI class Permalink 5:35 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Sultan played the situation like a violin Turkey government seemed to have list of arrests prepared http://reut.rs/2a4GKwA via @Reuters Permalink 5:27 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb When “short” treasuries, I had MY money on the line.Daniel Drezner the sickening man called Iraq war &paid no price for the dead @dandrezner Permalink 4:49 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@bee_starship You rock for RT this @rob_swire my family is Iraqi Shia and we cop so much crap. Know the difference people ️https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/753940487829086209 Permalink 3:50 AM – 18 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For the amnesiacs: in 1826 Mahmud II incited the Janissaries to revolt, to terminate them (execute & imprison them).pic.twitter.com/RSowGdkA9T Permalink 6:51 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Drezner boy: not possible to explain to bullshit vendors what is and what is not bullshit, what’s rigorous &what’s crap. Kapish? @dandrezner Permalink 3:06 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The only other explanation is that the F16 pilots were economists/social scientists, all show no go.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/754750077311352833 Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is very, very strange: 2 rebel F16s had a lock on Erdogan’s plane but didn’t fire! Yet they bombed Parliament.https://twitter.com/ziadaboujamra/status/754730470001283073 Permalink 11:50 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Which (almost) ends a month-long tweet storm for the n-summed lognormal! It works!pic.twitter.com/SkRQb94yhg Permalink 8:09 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Respect! @Pete_Spence Permalink 7:56 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb كان لازم سعيد عقل يسميا “اللغة الشامية” مش بس اللبنانية و يتعلم السريايا http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm https://twitter.com/menleben/status/754682479051673600 Permalink 7:30 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Corrected1 Life is trial and error. @wolframpic.twitter.com/7KraMtcHPs Permalink 6:58 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Warning: there may be a problem in conversion table t2: “n” shd be inside not outside moments. @wolframpic.twitter.com/jZYlXx4ehs Permalink 6:37 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Student T is much much more civilized than the Lognormal @hbkazemi33pic.twitter.com/UetGm5tXf7 Permalink 6:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Paper: “preasymptotics of sums of random variables in the subexponential class”, first presented at @DrCirillo’s conference @John1ODea Permalink 6:15 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Et voila! The Lognormal is very very stubborn but the solution was simple: here it gave-in thanks to @wolframpic.twitter.com/5lv269XEB1 Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Sums of “weird” r. variables that converge slowly [LogNormal] can be ONLY be treated preasymptotically as Pearson IVpic.twitter.com/W4YpdHlAR2 Permalink 5:58 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A remark: Jay Ulfedler’s @dtchimp “mathematical model” to predict exudes, smells, reeks, of bullshit.https://twitter.com/dtchimp/status/754621708812902400 Permalink 5:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Leibnitz who (co)invented calculus knew only basic math bef. age of 26. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Wilhelm_Leibniz @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/1gfKJkXqYZ Permalink 4:32 AM – 17 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The weird thing about #Turkey: pro-democracy pple worldwide against coup; all Salafis pro-Isis pro-Jihad worldwide also cheering. NonKapish! Permalink 4:06 PM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Chap 1: In a dialogue with Fat Tony, he asks me: – Why did you kill me? – Just business, your FatToniness. Only bizness, nothing personal. Permalink 1:28 PM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb They want to hide something. Or they look like they are hiding something. And insult the intelligence of the publichttps://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/754388911921790976 Permalink 11:58 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Yesterday tried to work on SkinInTheGame. But Nice in the AM 28 Pages in PM Turkey in Eve. Only wrote chapter title: “Republic of Tawk”. Permalink 10:55 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The great sucker problem: blame the people in Soviet Russia for not being up to par, do not blame the regime.https://twitter.com/Sanelino/status/754330440056659968 Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The moral: When doing a coup in 2016 anywhere on the planet, fughedaboud local TV, occupy Twitter and Facebook headquarters in San Francisco Permalink 7:47 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb These EU empty suits just tawk. Words words words they never had a real job & think their job is a real job.https://twitter.com/eevriviades/status/754287863680929792 Permalink 5:28 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@TalebBot Most mistakes get worse when you try to correct them. Permalink 8:33 PM – 14 Jul 2016

@TalebBot The main reason to go to school is to learn *how not* to think like a professor. Permalink 8:33 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@TalebBot It is a very powerful manipulation to let others win the small battles. Permalink 2:33 AM – 16 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Articles with words but no information have sentences s.a.”but whoever comes out on top, democracy is sure to lose”https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/754121094844612608 Permalink 6:31 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Spreading this warning. This is common with the Syrian war.https://twitter.com/ekrispin/status/754085153778139137 Permalink 4:23 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@karimbitar The correct Lenin quote is: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”https://twitter.com/gerardaraud/status/754047290583683072 Permalink 1:45 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb On my list of things to crumble: + Saudi Barbaria [STARTED] + Bureaucristan/econ “elites” IYIs [STARTED] + Monsantohttps://twitter.com/LongShortTrader/status/754030858596646912 Permalink 12:23 PM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My impression reading the #28pages is that had the info been public, we would have heard calls to invade Saudi Barbaria instead of Iraq. Permalink 11:44 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How about those who love *either* logic or *both* mathematics *and* deadlifting?https://twitter.com/thatsoftwareguy/status/754010345551847425 Permalink 11:00 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I deleted the tweet about Paris torture because the info was denied by the “Procureur General.”(chief prosecutor) Permalink 10:49 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How PsychoBS Hedgehog-fox fails: @Ptetlock “Pilot of the plane is hedgehog he is too focused on preventing crash”.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/691647327178719233 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb People don’t know what they are talking about when they say “religion”.pic.twitter.com/dLdL6FTYnr Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The danger of Salafism is in its treatment of religion as LAW & political system. Violence is the result.https://twitter.com/yzilber/status/753942564428976128 Permalink 6:24 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Designation “Islam” is absurd; there are 3 religions. -Shia -Sunni secular, Ottoman, Sufi, urban… -Salafi/Wahabi (ISIS, Saudi Barbaria) Permalink 6:13 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb As predicted from minority rule: GMOs going extinct, sales contracting. Paying Farmers to Go Organic Inhttp://nyti.ms/29HXafa Permalink 6:05 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem is religions are not banned. If Nazism is banned, Salafism/Wahabism must be banned. Shut down Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/swensn/status/753933839521558528 Permalink 5:48 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Anyone proGMOs on “scientific” grounds is 50y behind,ignorant of complexity, or just stupid https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/photos/a.10150109720973375.279515.13012333374/10153978116453375/?type=3&theater pic.twitter.com/GFLabc93af Permalink 5:43 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@Konstant_V @nntaleb next time anyone asks why #Nice happened I will show him this:http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/15/saudi-funded-mosque-opened-nice-two-weeks-attack/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social Permalink 5:36 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafi Mosques are the root. Since 2001 the idiotic West let Saudi “allies” keep spreading Salafism. Destroy Riad.https://twitter.com/hbkazemi33/status/753920423557992448 Permalink 4:56 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Revisiting Popper’s (Goedel’s) paradox: Why Salafis should be confined just for being Salafis. Delenda Saudi Arabia.pic.twitter.com/aqCmLxet5c Permalink 4:50 AM – 15 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Salafi is Salafi is Salafi, no nuance. Salafi is inherently violent terrorism. Those who promote Salafism are guiltyhttps://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/753780246055268352 Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Jul 2016

GMOs, Monsanto, Ramanujan, Philip Tetlock, Max Abrahms, Golden Rice, Blair, Preasymtotics, John Gray, Brexit

Leave a reply

@EcoWatch #Obama Expected to Sign Industry-Backed #GMO Label Bill Into Law http://rbl.ms/29FKHvt @nongmoreport @foodandwater @OrganicConsumer @EWG Permalink 8:45 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@mjd1735 @ziadaboujamra @nntaleb @herrlichmann @AmbJohnBolton @zbig @SonyKapoor @EliLake @ishaantharoor Probability Question:pic.twitter.com/fniXcZysLF Permalink 4:41 PM – 14 Jul 2016

@yaneerbaryam Regulatory capture overriding Vermont GMO labeling bill: Why Activists Are Unhappy With New GMO Labeling Legislationhttp://ti.me/2adnKLH Permalink 12:32 PM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Moving stuff to http://Academia.edu The Skin In The Game Heuristic for Protection Against Tail Eventshttps://www.academia.edu/26989481/The_Skin_In_The_Game_Heuristic_for_Protection_Against_Tail_Events?s=t Permalink 11:55 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@rahul_goa @nntaleb @vivakermani @normonics @yaneerbaryam Have annotated your image to show the ‘fundamental difference’ riskpic.twitter.com/wMDBbvEhKX Permalink 8:48 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto pulled no stop trying to discredit me: 1000 mails to Univ (!),>1000 shill posts. Nada. F***you money works.https://twitter.com/KenMcCarthy/status/753583908508278784 Permalink 6:44 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Compare shrinking sales of Monsanto GMOs to organic. Explains the HUGE lobby effort/shilling for GMOs.pic.twitter.com/wYdLcDhezw Permalink 6:10 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb GMO issue is ignorance of the properties of complex systems/fattails (Monsanto’s 107 Nobels, 80y.o. are 50 y behind)https://twitter.com/trisweb/status/753574340168388608 Permalink 6:04 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Some new proofs for preasymptotic behavior of exponential distribution and subexponential class.pic.twitter.com/F57u7IWH2J Permalink 5:43 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For an idea of what’s expected frm technology/”growth” biz, look at AMZN vs MON. GMOs are in decline,organic growingpic.twitter.com/5oUyERBzav Permalink 4:53 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Good news re GMOs: I’ve never seen a real technology SHRINK yet survive, in spite of intense lobbying/shilling. Why Monsanto needs buyer. Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Bottom:Monsanto is a sick company,sales <2010,hence active GMO shilling w/Henry I Miller etc http://usrtk.org/hall-of-shame/why-you-cant-trust-henry-miller-on-gmos/ pic.twitter.com/cl6iDsZEBG Permalink 4:32 AM – 14 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Point: except for Mishnah Torah Maimonides wrote his major work in Arabic aiming at Islamic/Abrahamic readers @yzilber @HannahHedgehog Permalink 7:10 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb If OBD- Y… Or explicit Abd-Allah is so common in Semitic & preIslamic cultures it has to hark back to OVD-EL @amaatouq @kaplanfat Permalink 7:06 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Also Abdallah was translated into latin as Amadeus and Gr as Theophilos @amaatouq @kaplanfat Permalink 6:51 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb .@amaatouq @kaplanfat I read Islamic commentaries of Dalat al Ha2rin (perplexed) he was allowed to make pronouncements on Islamic law. Permalink 6:43 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Abdallah is a pre-Islamic name. Evidence is easy: guess.https://twitter.com/kaplanfat/status/753398371390545920 Permalink 6:21 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Abdallah was common among Iraqi Jews it is Obadiah @HannahHedgehog Permalink 6:10 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Was surprised to see Ibn Abdallah in Maimonides name http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Maimonides Permalink 5:30 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Maimonides name is Ibn Abdallah. Permalink 5:25 PM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The tiniest accolade from a classicist & erudite like @ArmandDAngour is worth >>> any compliment/prize/praisebyjourno etc. Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The strategy for meal-debates is to order mezze style so you can eat other’s food (frog legs) as they are fighting.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/752307005331742720 Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1) Do not read books on time management/MBAbullshit 2) Do nothing that bores you & stop before something gets dullhttps://twitter.com/pdanielcabral/status/753195514376564737 Permalink 5:05 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb And sources for dabbaq in Arabic are scant; suspected Syriac origin http://www.baheth.info/all.jsp?term= دبقpic.twitter.com/4rFAEEA5f1 Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Extension: dabba2, “sticky fingers” prob. comes from same root DBS, with corruption of SH =>Aleph Permalink 4:48 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Syrup itself in English, like “sorbet” coming probably from “SRB” to drink (Shurba) [an iced fruit cocoction] @ArmandDAngour Permalink 4:45 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In other words DBS= glue, applies to both syrup and honey @ArmandDAngour Permalink 4:44 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Levantine roots du jour: 3asal=honey from Arabic 3asal, debs=syrup from Aramaic honey & syrup. (in Heb honey=DBSH)pic.twitter.com/gNeNVxFdbA Permalink 4:43 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How GMOs are a fundamentally different process than other modifications, no track record. @normonics @yaneerbaryampic.twitter.com/9mo914nEan Permalink 4:07 AM – 13 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Continued: “For Ramanujan proofs were some strange European custom…”pic.twitter.com/k6PR0JE5Bk Permalink 6:30 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Great book; Ramanujan is a “mathematical tinkerer” vs Hardy who worked from rulebook. Invites tinkering on Mathematica @stephen_wolfram Permalink 6:20 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Excellent! Only read on mathematicians by insiders.”Math=Youth”disappears when adjtd by life expect @stephen_wolframpic.twitter.com/52AzjK5asR Permalink 6:11 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The dialogue worked as when we switched to the solution, everyone was in agreement:decentralization @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus @yaneerbaryam Permalink 5:54 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For the record, for personal ethics, I do not comment abt @PTetlock’s works, etc; I only respond to psychobullshit about my own work. Permalink 3:10 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Here is paper, MrTetlock stop your psyshoBS show where explicit before Peters/Gell-mann https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/752832543158833156 Permalink 2:58 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Stop the bullshit: These are NOT counterexamples. Show me a SINGLE social paper that accounts for time prob problem.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/752832543158833156 Permalink 2:55 PM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nice convergence of ideas on decentralization! Dialogue works! @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus @yaneerbaryam Permalink 8:44 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Evidence that @Confusezeus is getting Salafi funding!https://twitter.com/habibahamid/status/752874960780230656 Permalink 7:52 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Cambridge Debate @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus @yaneerbaryampic.twitter.com/UPnQtnkZvr Permalink 7:42 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I am witnessing a bitter fight between @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus over ISIS/IRGC on a cafe terrace in Cambridge with @yaneerbaryam laughing. Permalink 7:35 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@MaxAbrahms @nntaleb @Confusezeus Apologists want people to think ISIS is defensive, not predatory. But ISIS wants to strike every country in the world. Permalink 5:44 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb ISIS apologists are never explicit; they say” ISIS is bad.. but” & offer some comparison @Confusezeus @MaxAbrahms Permalink 5:13 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Outside of Kelly criterion (still implicit) finance profs make ergodicity mistake. @yzilber @PTetlock @LionsWatson @pale_blue_dot__ Permalink 5:09 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb ISIS apologists keep pouding “comparative” arguments (Crusades, IRGC, Pilgrims, Assad) –typically as here, lame. @Confusezeus @MaxAbrahms Permalink 5:08 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb This is to debunk the BS: ALL social science/decision theory is missing the point. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-05-12/nassim-taleb-on-the-importance-of-probability @PTetlock Permalink 4:45 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The point is that you cannot naively use probability for gambles @ardalby @PTetlock Permalink 4:44 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb And here is our revision to reflect Peters & Gell-Mann https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf @a_random_otter @PTetlock Permalink 4:43 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Not at all. First result (Other than ours) was shown in Gell-Mann Peters https://publishing.aip.org/publishing/journal-highlights/exploring-gambles-reveals-foundational-difficulty-behind-economic @a_random_otter @PTetlock Permalink 4:40 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Show ONE paper in social science identifying ergodicity. ONE. @PTetlock Permalink 4:34 AM – 12 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The #DNDL category is just a fuzzy marker. But deadlifting is a state of mind.https://twitter.com/MDiPaolaMD/status/752653334293647360 Permalink 6:14 PM – 11 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Séralini case is an interesting way to learn about smear campaign. Meanwhile we are finishing the PP paper.https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/752523326036250624 Permalink 3:12 PM – 11 Jul 2016

@caitlinrgreen Thanet, Tanit & the Phoenicians: Names, Archaeology & Pre-Roman Trading Settlements in Kent? http://www.caitlingreen.org/2015/04/thanet-tanit-and-the-phoenicians.html pic.twitter.com/Npezp0bx9f Permalink 2:17 AM – 21 Apr 2015

@nntaleb Never argue with people in private (you will not convince them); argue in public to convince others. Permalink 10:31 AM – 11 Jul 2016

@MohsenGTW @Confusezeus does IRGC consider Sunnis apostates or enslave people? Do you read Persian? Do you have a brain? @nntaleb @MaxAbrahms Permalink 6:42 AM – 11 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Max’s argument: whatever detractors call a “Shia threat” is 100% local. Salafis have global aims (NY, Paris…) @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus Permalink 6:40 AM – 11 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nadim is v. open to both discussions & frog legs. 2 more trips to Boston Max & I will change his position @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus Permalink 5:42 AM – 11 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nadim, a Christian Lebanese & Saudi Barbaria apologist, has the Stockholm syndrome common to many Lebs in policy. @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus Permalink 6:30 PM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb So far Nadim has not been able to bring any logical or empirical argument against Max. I am just eating frog legs. @MaxAbrahms @Confusezeus Permalink 6:24 PM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb With @MaxAbrahms in a heated debate with Nadim Shehadi @Confusezeus who sides with Saudi Barbaria. (Frog legs)pic.twitter.com/5mJLrTOS0P Permalink 6:02 PM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb With @MaxAbrahms in a heated debate with Nadim Shehadi @Confusezeus who sides with Saudi Barbaria. (Frog legs)pic.twitter.com/woFBtaorE1 Permalink 6:02 PM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Finally, instead of driving to Boston, forgot about time, and proved the Lognormal convergence theorems!pic.twitter.com/rcGlVOpPZ1 Permalink 7:15 AM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Try the Inequalities cheat cheat @neilchriss http://www.lkozma.net/inequalities_cheat_sheet/ineq.pdf Permalink 4:18 AM – 10 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Inverse Touring Test: The more you can be computerized, the less human you are.https://twitter.com/juliaclavien/status/751534001156984834 Permalink 3:55 AM – 10 Jul 2016

@kylef 500kg deadlift. Eddie Hall trying to Make Britain Great Againhttps://youtu.be/T9Y4o_BqC0A Permalink 5:27 PM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Semiticology dujour: Semitic lang,unlike most Indo-Euro, have “day” (YWM) for 24 h &different “day” for the diurnal.pic.twitter.com/n8Mrdm9Vpc Permalink 7:00 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Define “nitpicking”https://twitter.com/Marina_the_Th/status/751772227532619776 Permalink 6:44 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb A “nice person” is someone principally nice to those he/she doesn’t need to be nice to. #DailyEthics #Shillary Permalink 6:36 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb At the core, with EU, people conflated 1) coordination of common (local) interests with 2) subjugation to a central authority Permalink 4:58 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb More on Influences of Semitic roots in Egyptian language; pre-Islamic pre-Arabic https://books.google.com/books?id=GkcABAAAQBAJ&pg=PA540&dq=tlb+semitic&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjq7qCtp-bNAhUEcz4KHZo8A-sQ6AEISDAI#v=onepage&q&f=false @lameensouag Permalink 4:50 AM – 9 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Hawn http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm https://twitter.com/mhmalek/status/751525386589237248 Permalink 2:49 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Sakker shebbak w’ttala3 la barra” Levantine &~Aramaic. “Iqful el nafizah wa inthur ilal 5arij” Arabic. Rquires a mental defect to not see. Permalink 12:29 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The plot thickens. As***le. [2 words] “Bu5sh Tizo” Levantine “Bu5sh Tizo” Aramaic “Thaqb Iliatihi” Arabicpic.twitter.com/JJ2ZJzEhhe Permalink 12:20 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Zammar 3a l’kou3” Levantine “Zammar 3a l’kou3” Aramaic “Inshud 3al mun3atif” Arabic One has to be blind to not seepic.twitter.com/d8HiWiQwmN Permalink 12:11 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Public sector work should not be an investment strategy. @AustinGreenpic.twitter.com/fVqdqYp3Xv Permalink 12:08 PM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Single most potent arg. agst Centralized EU bureaucratistan: will be eventually owned by Goldman Sacks & Monsanto.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/751481083309486080 Permalink 11:36 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It reeks of something all across. Read the paper [ASSUMING YOU TRUST RESULTS], read my p-value paper, let’s talk. @ryanbriggs Permalink 8:38 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The problem of Golden rice is side effects on system. Never take risks you don’t understand if you can do as well w/those you do. @raphaels7 Permalink 8:09 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Hahahaha! “β-Carotene in Golden Rice is as good as β-carotene in oil at providing vitamin A to children” RETRACTED http://retractionwatch.com/2015/07/30/golden-rice-paper-pulled-after-judge-rules-for-journal/ Permalink 7:41 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile & ALL socsci misses ergodicity/tails https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf @LionsWatson @pale_blue_dot__ @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/yP65WqHtLB Permalink 5:35 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Adding tutorials to lectures: Probability & Integral Transforms. Sense the shape of the distribution from its dual.pic.twitter.com/cqaLizQKwT Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 62 out of 63 finance/econ academics who traded engaged in tail selling strategies (a la LTCM )>> practitioners. @pale_blue_dot__ @PTetlock Permalink 4:07 AM – 8 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) post has been read by 1.6 mil across social media. Bypass established IYI media!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/746879505659207680 Permalink 4:13 PM – 7 Jul 2016

@PaleoPhil @catsdad101 @nntaleb “Some people invoke “the naturalistic fallacy,” a philosophical concept that is limited to the moral domain.” -NNT 2014 Permalink 3:06 PM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Next week in Boston w/@yaneerbaryam revising PP, adding computational complexity /NP. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html pic.twitter.com/NZJndoarIS Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Someone wrote a more polite critique of that ignorant #neiltyson idea of Rationalia.http://bit.ly/29baqdS Permalink 12:13 PM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The InverseExpert is part of SKIN IN THE GAME. The problem is that, without SITG, inverse experts dominate.https://twitter.com/billpowers1970/status/751106877396746240 Permalink 10:34 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Food Corp. (incl. Evil Monsanto) are scared of the minority rule. But they’ve lost anyway. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/751063380081905664 Permalink 10:32 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Expert: knows stuff NonExpert: me on Turkish grammar InverseExpert: Do oppositel; Brusselcrats, Sunstein,Stiglitz,Thaler,Merton,Scholes,etc. Permalink 10:27 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Those who think Levantine is a “dialect”of Arabic don’t know Aramaic/Semitic lang http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm @HouariBdz @abisinello @LinaArabii Permalink 9:50 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb عيد فطر مبارك. ينعاد عليكم بدوام الصحة و العافية. Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@abisinello Lebanese risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb vs Garry Kasparov on military interventions in the Middle East.pic.twitter.com/SNSxSC7dt1 Permalink 1:57 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Another explanation of Scale Dependent Properties: Some may believe *armies create wars* but nobody sane believes *police create robberies*. Permalink 8:20 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb “Scientism of the idiot” (GMO #neiltyson): belief that one should replace a natural hand with an artificial one to satisfy “sc. progress” Permalink 7:31 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Pinker’s book relies on a lot of words that hide absence of a CENTRAL detail. @DrCirillo @JonathanWaxman1pic.twitter.com/lOLqybUVjA Permalink 6:23 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Statistical science (via prob theo) sets naturally the limits of statistical science. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1691165&download=yes @psybertron @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 5:51 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Problem with Pinker boy is that he made statistical claims without knowing what he is talking about. @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 5:44 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb All cheap tawk. Blair should be forced to live the rest of his life in Bagdad/Mosul, or Raqqah. #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/TheGreenParty/status/750642762203009024 Permalink 5:42 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb What are the odds that someone expressing distress at the “choice” w/ the two presidential candidates (who will vote) would vote Trump? Permalink 5:40 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Economics/philosopy prof does not count as “proper job”. Actually, reverse. Kapish? @miamoisio @JonathanWaxman1 @_Foolosophy_ @Nigel_Farage Permalink 5:33 AM – 7 Jul 2016

@food_democracy These brave Senators stood w/ the American public over backroom deals to label GMOs! http://bit.ly/29p69Ra #Heroespic.twitter.com/DN8Badw8wA Permalink 7:16 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Delenda est Monsanto; […] Ceterum, censeo … Delenda Monsanto esthttps://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/750802613071863809 Permalink 2:37 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb When I saw @Nigel_Farage telling the empty suits in Brussels “none of you had a proper job”, I knew he had been a trader. Turned out he was. Permalink 2:19 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Similarly: Nobody should ever hold office unless he/she had a “proper job” (outside politics/tawking) for at least 10 years and 3 months. Permalink 2:13 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb With funding cuts as w/fall of Soviet Union, academics are laid off. What will an academic economist be used for? Permalink 12:23 PM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Q: How many of the IYI who think Brexit is “irrational” + Thought Iraq was a good idea + Think GMOs are safe, “science” not scientism Permalink 10:52 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb So you think you understand enough of the workings of the world to pronounce pro-Brexit as “stupid”? I hold the exact opposite. @ianbremmer Permalink 10:27 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb How to purify academic research from BS, remove the ritualistic game, make it real. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153956847823375 pic.twitter.com/GAYiDrRmZn Permalink 7:19 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Son grand theme est le déclin de l’universitaire médiéval au profit de l’intellectuel humaniste. @OHSAISONS @AlexDroite Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb For researchers, a day job should be mandatory: Patent clerc Lensmaker Rentier Country priest Postman Mafia operative Trader @AlexDroite Permalink 4:54 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In Academia, abt everyone, individually,knows 99% of research are substance-free ritualistic BS but,collectively,behaves as if it weren’t so Permalink 4:51 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Le Goff despised academia; praised research by nonteachers. @AlexDroitepic.twitter.com/aQm9rMlcxD Permalink 4:36 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Uploaded ‘The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do The Data Really Say’ [debunking Pinker BS]http://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say Permalink 4:31 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@jeorgen Taleb keeps bringing down the modernist project. The high priests of scientism (not real science) need to be exposedhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/750488970425954304 Permalink 1:44 AM – 6 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The answer is: no.https://twitter.com/bonnicit/status/750518265043161088 Permalink 7:52 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I worked 21y full-time in a highly stressful job, researched, studied & wrote 3 books at night. I have NO sympathy for entitlement-academia. Permalink 6:26 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Brilliant, citable: “a set of fixed rituals around grant proposals” Saifedean Ammous @saifedean Permalink 6:20 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb If you have to be told how to do research, don’t do research. @BeOpsguy Permalink 6:06 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The results that came from industry yet misappropriated by academic PR machine “lecturing birds how to fly”.pic.twitter.com/DiDe3FaSig Permalink 5:38 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The main result of Borel was published in obscure “Palermo math circle” “Rendiconti del Circolo Matematico di Palermo” @neilchriss Permalink 5:30 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@_jmgomez_ @pasku1 I prefer the other one from @nntaleb,”Academia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love;the surface but,to the nonsucker,not…” Permalink 5:14 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@habibh Lebanese Entrepreneurs Are Coming Home, and Bringing Billions http://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/lebanese-entrepreneurs-are-coming-home-and-bringing-billions/70407#.V3ufGzir2jQ.twitter via @ozy Permalink 4:51 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb No. 2 chapters in #Antifragile. Academ produced << than industry/freelance in spite of resources; good PR machine.https://twitter.com/albertop78/status/750451396877615105 Permalink 3:20 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I know a few people who published several hundred papers without saying anything. Academia shd focus on education; decommoditize research. Permalink 1:32 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You “need” academia to do research about as much as you “need” a tractor to tour New York City.pic.twitter.com/1c5plbZhcO Permalink 12:46 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Ad Hominem is legit if the record links to the opinion (SITG). Don’t ask a blown up trader to evaluate tail risk.https://twitter.com/InjuredThales/status/750402931719958528 Permalink 12:05 PM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The only reason we don’t see the difficulties of the Lognormal is because finance pple work w/daily sig=.005-.01; things blow up at sig >1. Permalink 10:43 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Joining Academia to do research is like joining the mafia to learn Italian. Permalink 9:16 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@FrankQuattrone Says the man who once indicted me over a 23-word email that encouraged my team to save subpoenaed documentshttps://twitter.com/recode/status/750349802269990912 Permalink 8:31 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It IS ad hominem: Nobelled supporting GMOs w/sole backup their “credibility”, not derivations. Hence EXPERTISE is fair game @ademarcisnegro Permalink 8:51 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Nobel laureate GMO promoter presided over firm that lost billions http://www.gmwatch.org/news/latest-news/17091-nobel-laureate-who-signed-letter-promoting-gmos-presided-over-firm-that-lost-billions Permalink 8:19 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@tparsi Stunning piece on how Saudi/Qatari funded mosques are spreading Salafism and secterianism in Swedish (!) suburbs… http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/longread/utanforskapet-inifran/har-i-orebro-vill-jag-rycka-tag-i-barnen-och-saga-ingen-mer-ska-till-paradiset/ Permalink 10:09 PM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Lognormal is hardest of distributions in preasymtotics: sums behave erratically; no MGF/CHF. Back to stand up desk.pic.twitter.com/qByDXtg2xk Permalink 6:50 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The last step in the 3000 year Semitic convergence to pure, abstract, obsessive & uncompromising monotheism.https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/750282289519538176 Permalink 6:17 AM – 5 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison, warmonger WikiLeaks Releases Over 1,000 Clinton Iraq War Emails – Breitbarthttp://bit.ly/29hg7rC Permalink 6:52 PM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb QUESTION 1:What are the animals that don’t appear to age & what is their life expectancy? QUESTION 2:Are there human organs that don’t age? Permalink 1:07 PM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb ANSWER: Life expect. wld be, at 0,50,100, 1000 ~1/p ( p is fatal accident rate). (But human race wd go extinct, as no evol. if env. changes) Permalink 12:10 PM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Capicoli pronounced “Gabagool” @pwalnuts1156 @CGasparino @EmanuelDerman @mndl_nyc Permalink 7:20 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, “criticism” is something specific (e.g. “Theorem x is wrong”) or backed-up not drunken BS spouted in a bar. @PieterDuboisFI Permalink 7:17 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Sicilian is so different from Tuscan that for a long time Cavour thought that Sicilians were still speaking Arabic. @EmanuelDerman Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 1/2 Not “Italian”: Sicilian & Calabrese (“Kalabez”), don’t pronounce the last vowel a la Tuscan. Also “Gabish”. @EmanuelDerman @mndl_nyc Permalink 7:09 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb People think in sub-log scale. For the crowds, 350 billion and 350 millions aren’t too different. @diomavro @vaLondon @kateantiquity Permalink 6:32 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb There is a minority of trolls on the web (<1% trolling 95%). Shut them down & life gets much much better http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html @mndl_nyc Permalink 6:25 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You are not Kapishing the problem. There are disagreements, & there is trolling. Latter is unconditional to content. @mndl_nyc Permalink 6:23 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb You need to shut down EU (made in linear 50s-70s) & rebuild a la CHF in accordance w/logic of complex systems. @kateantiquity @James_Raynard Permalink 6:19 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Methodology with twitter: Typical troll by BS-vendors (doesn’t show *where* wrong). Block him and ALL his followers.pic.twitter.com/5qG0cKgECR Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Don’t look for proximate cause: You can’t have 1)voting rights, 2)social media, and 3)patronizing elite at once @kateantiquity Permalink 5:22 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb P-VALUES: Added a paper on http://Academia.edu : why p-values are BS/cannot be used for risk analyses.https://www.academia.edu/26704758/The_Meta-Distribution_of_Standard_P-Values Permalink 5:15 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The Great John Gray on Brexit:pic.twitter.com/M1vTHrxYxT Permalink 4:57 AM – 4 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I thought I did with Antifragile and this paper https://www.academia.edu/26660005/_Anti_Fragility_and_Convex_Responses_in_Medicine https://twitter.com/KDHabibi/status/749726795931521028 Permalink 4:31 PM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The view of a complex system from a complex system science vantage point is different. Learn fron @yaneerbaryam !https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/749711891300220928 Permalink 2:24 PM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb QUIZ du jour: If humans didn’t age, how long would they live? What would their life expectancy be at 100 compared to that at 50? Permalink 11:44 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb In SILENT RISK:Anyone who utters expr. “Knightian Risk” or distinguishes betw “risk” & “uncertainty” is incompetent:pic.twitter.com/9OYfeaBis2 Permalink 10:36 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Changing SILENT RISK from 1 column book size to 2 columns 8 1/2 by 1.pic.twitter.com/wvKQnw9L5F Permalink 9:59 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@GhassanDahhan Sure! Just like those jihadis from France, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, The Netherlands, Luxembourg & Finland.https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/749102157543026692 Permalink 9:22 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Wittgenstein. He is the one who understood why religious beliefs should not be analyzed. @hamandcheese @ChrisSpoke @Chris_arnade Permalink 9:12 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Even more weirdness on the part of the Lognormalpic.twitter.com/Tv1qXTQgoi Permalink 7:47 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Single account is easiest…But some people are annoyed by heavy math, others love it. Everyone loves beating on @JustinWolfers @mjd1735 Permalink 7:34 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Another way to check the weird fat-tailedness of the Lognormal.pic.twitter.com/ZaGsczMyq8 Permalink 7:30 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Twitter activities: + Busting BS vendors + Fighting evil firms (eg Monsanto) + Philology + Math/prob + Squid ink Permalink 7:09 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb NYU human resources, dean, secretary, everyone was swamped with emails. @mjd1735 @carolhoernlein @AndreaSaltelli @philipbstark Permalink 7:00 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Same Monsanto’s PR firm as the 107 Nobels send>1500 emails to NYU pathologizing my GMO stance @carolhoernlein @AndreaSaltelli @philipbstark Permalink 6:57 AM – 3 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Squid ink with wine from Puglia, the crypto-Byzantine region of Italy. @joe54stpic.twitter.com/LcgMsyv2do Permalink 5:50 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The imbecile didn’t read proof that PROBABILISTIC cost/benefit fails under systemic ruin. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf https://twitter.com/FabiusMaximus01/status/749354418647080960 Permalink 2:32 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Another one who doesn’t deadlift.https://twitter.com/rgncny/status/748906900738244608 Permalink 2:10 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Thing I learned today: Lognormal with high sigma (>=4) behaves in convergence ~ like Cauchy, slow for v. large sums.pic.twitter.com/jaWM1gnrgZ Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Zaki is also Aramaic (“Bass” interesting bec. from Persian=>Hindi) All Expression Zaki Bass 7mar Aramaic. @Jaguitapic.twitter.com/eVPwQDHsAi Permalink 1:40 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual yet Idiot) from Levantine “Zaki bass 7mar” (“bass” is Aramaic from Md. Pers.);corresponds to Mod. Hebrew חמור נושא ספרים Permalink 12:15 PM – 2 Jul 2016

@tparsi This image by Saudi embassy needs to include data on the number of Salafi terrorists Saudi has funded & created…https://twitter.com/SaudiEmbassyUSA/status/748512242627411968 Permalink 11:48 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I’d take any minute the decision of an imbecile over that of an educated imbecile.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/749259342617214976 Permalink 8:29 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb My belief: “tawkers” are a bunch of nerds ignorant of complexity of systems, can’t find a coconut in Coconut island.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/749208168081784832 Permalink 8:12 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@DrCirillo If you kill variability, you kill selection. If you kill selection, you kill the markets. Permalink 6:05 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler: Either “talkers”are smart & voters are indeed stupid, or Voters are smart & tawkers are stupidhttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/749206679577911296 Permalink 4:48 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Our GMO discussion: The Precautionary Principle page http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html pic.twitter.com/EXphyFiBlT Permalink 4:44 AM – 2 Jul 2016

@SPWinterstein @nntaleb this boils down the problem in “John hit the ball” language that even I can understand. Elegant and true.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/749041745661403136 Permalink 7:36 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The #Brexit rebellion against “experts”: it is easier to macrobullshit than microbullshit. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153947005293375 pic.twitter.com/XeJ6l7hHzK Permalink 5:47 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Trying http://Academia.edu (Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicinehttps://www.academia.edu/26660005/_Anti_Fragility_and_Convex_Responses_in_Medicine?s=t Permalink 5:10 PM – 1 Jul 2016

GMOs, Brexit, Brussels Elite, ANTIFRAGILE, Overregulation, Syria, NonStable Power Laws, Kasperov, Life Expectancy, YouGov, IYI | Twitter

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@nntaleb The average signatory’s Nobel y: 1997. Av. age at prize:~62. These are in their 80s, many 30-50y behind cutting edgehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748939971583741955 Permalink 3:33 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@food_democracy Breaking Let Freedom Ring! Vermont’s 1st in the Nation GMO Labeling bill has just gone into effect! Thanks Vermont!pic.twitter.com/KFnMWo1u1i Permalink 9:04 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Syrian rebels call themselves Mujaheddin. Stop the BS, call them by what they are. And learn Arabic.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/748988061426544640 Permalink 2:55 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Not always. Only if economist/journo AND BS vendor like @Noahpinionhttps://twitter.com/rneppalli/status/748971060641533953 Permalink 1:20 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@brunoboni Nero di seppia con bottarga #nerodiseppia @nntalebpic.twitter.com/RLkRCqMiKw Permalink 11:28 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 107 Nobel winners ag Golden Rice, aged pple who did their work before complexity theory… https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153946452908375 pic.twitter.com/6Ic2z7nJg2 Permalink 11:02 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It was not Elinor Ostrom who said “give us our fishing waters back”;it was Nigel Farrage. Time for bureaucrats to learn complexity/localism Permalink 10:20 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Philip as the UberStatistician & a fierless leader you should join us in an expanded project on GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html @philipbstark Permalink 9:42 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I will never discuss a friend in public no matter the situation. Only in private. Even with ex- friends @philipbstark Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The EU, something built 1950s-style, without understanding of complex systems.http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/685286/EU-referendum-Brexit-Black-Swan-Nassim-Taleb-Brussels-elite?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+daily-express-news-showbiz+%28Daily+Express+%3A%3A+News+%2F+Showbiz+Feed%29 Permalink 6:45 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Find the inconsistency, or how “average” probability isn’t a robust construct. [Quiz abt empty suit @JustinWolfers]pic.twitter.com/dd2dYsJu4Y Permalink 6:09 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Noboby noticed: only “Nobel” of 107 who “knows” abt risk is Robert Merton who blew up w/ LTCM “1 in trillion” risk.https://twitter.com/BioSRP/status/748858953937846273 Permalink 6:01 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Announcement: RWRI-3 Real World Risk fall workshop date has been changed to Oct 3-7 [We found great quarters in NYC] http://realworldrisk.com Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb Jensen’s inequality and sensitivity to variance in plantshttps://twitter.com/CurrentBiology/status/748604696739340288 Permalink 5:05 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Thought they were desperate to add a nobel in literature but…they added Robert Merton, Mr LTCM. Guaranteed Blowup!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748525227852849153 Permalink 4:53 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Donald Trump via trial and error looking for what people want. Know your customer rule.http://cnb.cx/29bzpMM Permalink 2:11 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voters tired of an elite that can’t find coconuts on Coconut Islandhttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000530650 Permalink 2:06 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Indeed: variance helps them! @Chris_arnade Permalink 2:02 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Alternative Test: what’s is the probability that @JustinWolfers a representayive member of the IYI class deadlifts? Permalink 8:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The only empirical association between Risk/Safety & Nobel Prize is LTCM. Try again, hire a more informed PR firm.https://twitter.com/MichaelRStrain/status/748319864595439616 Permalink 7:34 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Turned out Pinker’s words & references do not match. Asking him for backup, not words. 800 page thesis … no backuppic.twitter.com/kKRb0U6fwk Permalink 7:11 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Impressive: saw that Silver Rule (#Skininthegame) ⇔decision-making under incompleteness. He is MD &Deadlifts>600lbs!https://twitter.com/MDiPaolaMD/status/748493696052629504 Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Nassim Taleb Slams The World’s “Intellectual-Yet-Idiot” Class | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-26/nassim-taleb-slams-worlds-intellectual-yet-idiot-class Permalink 5:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 3 millennia of *wisdom=action under incomplete information* from King Solomon to Popper to Simon undid by that idiothttps://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/748157273789300736 Permalink 4:57 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finally completed my ANTIFRAGILE application to Medicine. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf Permalink 4:52 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Phil forgot 1 Nobel prize for literature. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748471063521169408 Permalink 4:51 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@hamlet911 If you can piss off econs, IYIs, academia and most of the twitterverse – all at the same time, you are pretty much right. Kudos @nntaleb Permalink 6:37 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb “If a tractor used on a farm has a windshield, its wipers must have a speed of 25 cycles per minute.” Brussels…pic.twitter.com/a8Ywc63eka Permalink 6:49 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The envious will perceive you as always arrogant.https://twitter.com/ban_kanj/status/748328386343354368 Permalink 6:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Overregulation by EU:length of a banana, volume per toilet flush, speed of agricultural tractor’s windshield wipers https://www.contribuables.org/2014/05/europe-trop-de-normes-pas-assez-de-liberte/ Permalink 6:28 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It takes 16 times longer to incorporate and run a bizness in Milan than Londra @Twitpiero Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Move a German to Paris or a French person to Frkfrt. No way. Both would move to LDN.https://twitter.com/fartelengelbert/status/748252528685518848 Permalink 1:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Another, #NonfakeRationalia, w/no BS vendors like Tyson: based on orthodox statistics & presence-absence of evidencehttps://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/748157273789300736 Permalink 1:18 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From my experience, London is attractive for banks as it has labor laws similar to US/pool of talent. Paris and Frankfurt tried & failed. Permalink 1:14 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Economist @JustinWolfers strikes me as the type w/no math, no erudition & no skin-in-the game. Does he deadlift? Permalink 12:11 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@mikeharrisNY @nntaleb @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Chart updated. Woa.#brexit looks like a non-event. Thanks prof.pic.twitter.com/3tA9d4wOyK Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb #skininthegame: Unless one has P/L it is hard to assess the “significance” of a move. Journos/Tawkers can’t get it!https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/748203429843996673 Permalink 10:19 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb GBP/USD 1year deviation is within significance band: nothing reflects such “gravity” of an event. Kapish? @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Permalink 10:13 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb UK stocks up from #Brexit vote. Ignore any word written by a journo except for street crime reporters.pic.twitter.com/GO55oGidAM Permalink 9:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From reading his work, Mr Wolfers has *some* challenges with probability theory. More, later. @jimmyybill @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A more advanced class is based on my book SILENT RISK and the papers here http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BTW this is my syllabus for the introductory class (7 lectures) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Lecture%20Syllabus.pdf Permalink 6:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb My first lecture: this is the clueless way to look at data. Histograms don’t give information for fattails.https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/747839522965098496 Permalink 6:37 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb No, the Pound move was not a Black Swan, & not a statistical outlier.pic.twitter.com/7mwey4GGRi Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Simplicity and skin in the game: Those who tawk propose more complicated models than those who do. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/nassim-taleb-on-simplicity-and-skin-in-the-game-cm642323 Permalink 2:20 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule in action http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf https://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/747898686852608001 Permalink 2:06 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb European Union, definition: Something designed by someone who doesn’t understand complex systems. Permalink 9:10 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@GMWatch URGENT: Act Now to Save #GMO Labeling, Before It’s Too Late! https://action.organicconsumers.org/o/50865/p/dia/action3/common/public/?action_KEY=18302&track=moFRN&tag=FRN#sthash.aPx1sX5D.dpuf pic.twitter.com/QtRvlAPqcB Permalink 8:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does not deadlift. (@MDiPaolaMD)https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/747616032928464900 Permalink 8:55 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@BogeJan @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam Balkanisation is failed centralization. Helvetization is successful decentralization Permalink 7:07 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People say “Balkanization”, why not”Helvetization”? @yaneerbaryam has ideas for Syria http://necsi.edu/research/social/peace_PLoS_f.pdf https://twitter.com/aNatureTech/status/747790776353067010 Permalink 6:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Stop bloodshe! Only solution for Syria is partition. Fences make better neighbors. Or strong decentralization.https://twitter.com/bitgit/status/747781027502915584 Permalink 6:22 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb An illustration of the ludic fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludic_fallacy (People who derive reputation/authority from games…)pic.twitter.com/CvnuQGm4qd Permalink 6:11 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Before theorizing abt Assad, have skin in the game & live w/rebels. Those you support would behead you @Kasparov63http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36637378 Permalink 5:51 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I have to *write* the paper! @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 3:48 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Grandmaster Marco Avellaneda @MAvellaneda55 is giving a flash talk in 15 min. He was last seen in Mexico. Permalink 3:05 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@KeaneBhatt Protesters of US ‘inaction’ in Syria should re-read two paragraphs, written in present-tense http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/world/middleeast/cia-arms-for-syrian-rebels-supplied-black-market-officials-say.html pic.twitter.com/D7YVMYKCCW Permalink 12:44 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I have seen the two @silva and @stevehiltonx tease one another: Interesting pair.http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/if-rohan-silva-can-hug-brexit-campaigner-steve-hilton-theres-hope-for-us-all-a3281781.html Permalink 2:03 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb New Version of today’s flash talk: Behavior of Sums of NonStable Power Laws. Convergence < Sqrt[log(log(n))) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BBGJune2016.pptx.pdf Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You should go live in Lybia when making comments like these. I live 20 m from Syria & don’t need Black-Swan blind neocons BS @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Even more bullshit. In real life, as in chess, a move has consequence and you study consequences before moving. Kapish? @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You are spouting neocon Bullshit, theorizing from afar. I was not happy with Gadafi/Saddam, but I am less happy with AlQaeda @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:03 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You want to turn Syria (hence Lebanon) into Iraq/Lybia just to spite Putin? Kill minorities for “geopolitical” BS?https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/747440635381092353 Permalink 7:48 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Presenting a flash talk tonite: Behavior of Sum of NonStable Power Laws http://go.bloomberg.com/promo/invite/bloomberg-quant-seminar-series-5/ My paper: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BBGJune2016.pptx.pdf Permalink 6:23 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@vtrighttoknow Thank you @SenSanders. We need more leaders like you!https://twitter.com/CFSTrueFood/status/746421448340811776 Permalink 6:26 PM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy. Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@GadSaad There you go. NNT forgot to mention that the Leave voters will all “xenophobic, hateful, illiterate racists.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/747116746843295744 Permalink 10:20 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb When people vote the way of the IYI elite, it is “democracy”. Otherwise it is misguided, irrational, swayed by populism & lack of education. Permalink 10:18 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb These imbeciles pathologizing people who did not vote the way the IYI (Intellectual-Yet-Idiots) elite wants them to. https://twitter.com/healthpsycenter/status/747100256001630208 Permalink 9:28 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finance based medicinehttps://twitter.com/HeatherM211/status/745562147715874816 Permalink 3:33 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The IYI class: Intellectual-Yet-Idiot Doesn’t deadlift & is scared that #Brexit started a revolution by the unwashedpic.twitter.com/26YykU2kx0 Permalink 6:35 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Intellectual Yet Idiot; Semierudite Bureaucrat;Normative;Pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand.https://twitter.com/mapale77/status/746865636211556352 Permalink 5:46 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 4 y ago, I resolved to do math >90m/day. I stuck to it, diligently, except for Jun 24, 2016 w/news of stage 1 of anti-IYI revolution #Brexit Permalink 5:37 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@lukasnaugle “Friendship that ends was never one; there was at least one sucker in it.” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/uVZVA6bs1h Permalink 5:28 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb To understand conditional life expect, see Social Security Admin: total expect increases with age. #rigorisneeded https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html Permalink 5:09 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Also YouGov’s numbers about the youth mean turnout bias: the main info is youth don’t care.https://twitter.com/mylifemysay/status/746740337331343360 Permalink 9:52 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where the term “Intellectual Yet Imbecile” is born to describe a journo-bureaucrat – read a lot but not enough. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153932393103375 Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile: problem of some IYT intellectual-yet-imbecile in Brussels trying to make measures”rational” #Brexitpic.twitter.com/UUKnslcl6T Permalink 9:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@republicofmath My take on @nntaleb: just because we have skewed data doesn’t mean we should engage in skewed thinkingpic.twitter.com/ZzpQ0WnIFA Permalink 8:34 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Math: E[X|X>K2] >=E[X|X>K1] for all K2>K1 @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 8:18 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Under ANY unimodal distribution, life expectancy increases BY MORE than 1 year for every surviving year. @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink 8:13 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb If uncond. life expectancy is 80 & you are already 80, your life expectancy is ~+9 y. If you are 100, it is ~+2y @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Life expectancy (remaining years to live) increases with age. @EloyGamaS @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 8:05 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 simply if your life expectancy is 89 and you are 95, they thing you have -7 years to go! YouGov is ridiculously incompetent. Permalink 8:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BSduJour: YouGov is incompetent in polling & missed Brexit by 6 pts; here:confused life expectancy w/conditional exphttps://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/746115846624403457 Permalink 8:03 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Antikirilganlik! Güzel bir sürpriz Türkçe bulmak için. Ve güzel bir yol Türkçe kelimeleri öğrenmek için.pic.twitter.com/YbU64GYXN3 Permalink 5:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic from #RWRI: have cash in bills on you or in in a stash next to you.https://twitter.com/dermot_lyons/status/746519787694489600 Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I asked: “Who are your natural partners, people from India or those from Poland?” Brexit is giving us an answer.https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/746665738014986240 Permalink 4:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People listen to “intellectual class” abt Brexit but for 70 y they’ve been wrong on anything: Stalinism, Maoism, Freudianism,Urban planning Permalink 11:54 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to think that Levantine derives from Arabic. Some influence, that’s all. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm @alielyassir Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb At the lunch table #riskmathics in Mexico City, 4/9 persons were of Lebanese origin. Permalink 8:49 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In one word: pollers are incompetent -and those who pay attention even more so. It is a bias-variance problem.https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/746366393226977284 Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It seems impossible for people to talk about markets w/o BS unless one is a trader/investor, with #skininthegame .https://twitter.com/harris4491/status/746350655418281984 Permalink 7:37 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb So the GBP is about were it was in February. Too many people talk about markets …pic.twitter.com/8OS505NhA3 Permalink 7:28 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@SenSanders I am going to do everything I can to defeat this GMO labeling legislation, which preempts Vermont’s law.http://1.usa.gov/28QN4pQ Permalink 2:17 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From 2012; NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: ‘The European Union Is A Horrible, Stupid Project’http://read.bi/RiSRHT Permalink 4:26 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Today, the United States have acquired 4 new shadow states: England, London (sic), Wales, and possibly Scotland. Permalink 4:20 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Brookings needs to be… diminished, purged, and debullshitvendorified @MaxAbrahms Permalink 9:58 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Whatever legal disclaimer: I own gold in some forms. Permalink 9:56 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Gold! In any form. Permalink 9:52 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Brexit results after a lot of Mexican wine.pic.twitter.com/l4GA2UsWYv Permalink 8:10 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voila the problem on airplane solved by the master in higher dimensions!https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/745963733093015552 Permalink 2:42 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@ProbFact “Modernity corresponds to the systematic extraction of humans from their randomness-laden ecology.” — @nntaleb http://bit.ly/28UC0ea Permalink 9:45 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BTW I am long some GBP so I can talk about markets tonite to satistfy #Skininthegame @will_moriarty Permalink 9:36 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does it include control by Norwegian universities that *during the same period* did not take a cut? #causalityishardhttps://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/739852044010434560 Permalink 9:34 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In Mexico,debate w/Rob Engel & Ed Altman on Brexit effects.There no scheduled volatility, Prices SCORN ideas/clichéspic.twitter.com/NnW7YRWYcK Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@ScottAdamsSays @AG2Pearl @fireclan55 If you understood business, you’d know counting the failures is a fool’s analysis. I have about 30, and I’m rich. Permalink 6:35 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Also note that the semi-intellectual empty suits tend to engage in entry-level scientism with promotion of GMOshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793 Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You are not getting expert pbm. Grandmother’s jdgmnt doesn’t mean she is a Dr, only how to trust a doctor and for what gravity. @trombosit Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is by any metric a charlatan. The fact that bureaucrats don’t like him doesn’t make him scientific. @NickdeCusa Permalink 4:26 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Reminder: the crowds are now rebelling against empty suits & “intellectuals” https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153658794008375 pic.twitter.com/wdCTVcfNWT Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@MAvellaneda55 Made it to Mexico with @nntaleb discussing probability #brexit & #mathematics. On to #riskmathics conference!pic.twitter.com/ZxZz5pDUIe Permalink 1:21 PM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Yes! If th ~ Uniform[0,Pi], Tan[th]~ Cauchy & if radius from center random, still Cauchy as Sum of Cauchy = Cauchy @asknbid @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Quiz given by @MAvellaneda55. A drunk person throws balls randomly in all directions. What is the proba distrib of the distance betw balls? Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Betting odds are demonstrably similar to option implied probabilities, except unhedgeable (no underlying).https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/745659184956465152 Permalink 9:53 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb On plane Prof Marco @MAvellaneda55 agrees with derivations showing betting 1/x has tail. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/LongShot.nb.pdf Permalink 9:42 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@lukasnaugle “If you know, in the morning, what your day looks like with any precision, you are a little bit dead…” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/xTPzcjImNf Permalink 5:28 PM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Marco my math mentor/th advisor for 22.5 years adjusting probabilities for Dutch Book effect. Neat!https://twitter.com/mavellaneda55/status/745591147251240960 Permalink 5:19 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 In other words Egyptian scribes had been using Semitic languages, incl Aramaic as lingua franca for 2000 years before the Arab invasion. Permalink 4:46 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Egyptian use of Semitic lang. predates the Achaemenid inv, The Amarna letters were in Akkadian.( Aramaic in Egypt dialect.) Permalink 4:45 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I can’t see any backing to the idea: Brexit => Economy will tank It’s by the same economists who wouldn’t find sand in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 2:24 PM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where I explain that “large” projects rarely start as “large” projects, but fractally grown https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153701042473375 Permalink 5:23 AM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voila! Organic funding is the way: VCs are about cosmetic businesses to sell to the greater fool.https://twitter.com/stephenfleming/status/745225288720711681 Permalink 5:03 AM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A general question. Is is true that tears in rotator cuff “never” fully self repair? Lit is not clear on that; @cdipaola62 @DataScienceDork Permalink 3:13 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@StopponiMario @nntaleb in Italy the change is happening bottom-up as you said, cities independent from central gov as Renaissancepic.twitter.com/d7ihNEAvBL Permalink 2:53 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb For comments, my first scientific article in Medicine; on Convex responses and Antifragility. Almost done. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf Permalink 1:21 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Birth of superstate: Frederick Forsyth on how UNELECTED Brussels bureaucrats SEIZED powerhttp://shr.gs/GNd7LlN Permalink 1:16 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb No, I do not lecture in Saudi Arabia, & those lecturing there are academics-for-purchase.pic.twitter.com/7IV46YGVFx Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It is easy to find out the Monsanto shills: people who defend BOTH glyphosate and GMOs & attack glysphokeptics.https://twitter.com/philipbstark/status/744858609671090177 Permalink 4:47 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Read the NYTimes after long time (jetlag): can detect that newsmedia are afraid of their readers. When I write I don’t care abt readers. Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Byzantine mass in a small church in my ancestral village: Greco-Arabic @byzantinepowerpic.twitter.com/BYRNQ0lqQz Permalink 2:59 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Our paper on violence translated for nonstatisticians http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/violencenobelsymposium.pdf @QuarrelAU Permalink 8:25 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The Nobel Symposium: 3 full days. We stopped discussing Pinker’s thesis as dismissed after 1st session.pic.twitter.com/03m9mUyNQq Permalink 8:06 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic root for Levantine du jour: Shl7 شلح comes from SHLH: undress, now fleece (-> Tshli7, Shla7 tyebak…)pic.twitter.com/zsICwu92WQ Permalink 3:05 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trying to explain the Mediterranean temperament to Slavs: Meds know how to have fun without necessarily getting drunk. Permalink 11:33 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In their private lives, some people seek union, others seek frequent intersection. Permalink 4:54 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Here it is https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf https://twitter.com/DataScienceDork/status/743991476594610176 Permalink 2:28 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb .@PeterCorless @EHSANI22 We have evidence that many of these civilians were killed by Islamists, pictures financed by Saudi PR firms. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Jun 2016

@EHSANI22 When you read think tankers arguing for removing Assad by force or bombing syria, ask them who funds their operations and salaries. Permalink 7:33 AM – 17 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The only way one can measure intertemporal inequality is within SAME cohort. Brookings ignorant BSvendors.https://twitter.com/EconTalker/status/743476144813522944 Permalink 9:23 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb History is periods of peace punctuated by war rather than periods of war puctuated by peace. (Bergen Symposium) Permalink 5:58 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Wrong! P of .05 values don’t work… https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf https://twitter.com/AcademicsSay/status/743413767904559104 Permalink 5:22 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Western Norway: mountainous, craggy, pristine, like Switzerland without the Swiss. Presenting paper on violence.pic.twitter.com/qMJiLB8AVN Permalink 6:23 PM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t put his name on steaks for the money, rather for the ego. @AdamB1438 @John_Hempton @realmarkcuban Permalink 7:17 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Area for the exception. Thrilling to visualize inequalities in higher dimensions. @alxpr1c3 @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/gCgvAVZ0mk Permalink 7:16 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Talking class paternalists don’t get it: Only way to hurt Trump is to show him crying while reading Anna Kareninahttps://twitter.com/naomiaklein/status/742746821718618112 Permalink 5:06 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Comments like these by the “intellectual class” will get TheDonaldo elected.https://twitter.com/naomiaklein/status/742746821718618112 Permalink 5:27 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb How many years of consecutive “peace” in a random Poisson process? Methodology. @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/jxY77d4ost Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finalmente, 4 years after antifragile, the discourse is improving!https://twitter.com/emanuelderman/status/742723822378438656 Permalink 12:11 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Most humans either harm or are harmed by words. The rest is a small minority. Permalink 12:05 PM – 14 Jun 2016

The Black Swan Report

Keeping Tabs on Nassim Taleb and the Highly Improbable.

Category Archives: Twitter

Pinker, Stewart Brand, Charlatans, Syria, Godel-Popper, Erdogan, Mathematica, Elections | Twitter

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