Published on Jul 27, 2020
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
For transcript and links related to today’s episode: https://www.econtalk.org/nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-the-pandemic/

The Masks Masquerade

Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility

Face Masks May be Necessary and Sufficient to Stop Covid-19
An entrepreneur’s perspective on Nassim Taleb’s conclusions about face masks

Podcast Notes: The Pandemic, Power of Masks, Levels of Risk and More | Nassim Nicholas Taleb on EconTalk

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)
Published on Feb 18, 2020
We explain the Kelly criterion and illustrate why “risk aversion” in Behavioral Finance is Micky Mouse(™) Science.

TLDR: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic A summary of the July 27, 2020 episode of EconTalk.

On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables (pdf)

@nntaleb Fireworks or ammunitions from the initial sparks. Stop the conspiracy theories, for Baal’s sake. No plane. Permalink 2020-08-04 16:38:01

@nntaleb Manhattan is dead & unflaneurable. Astoria Queens is more flaneurable: less pretentious & has much better Greek food, 30% blue collar customers instead of constipated book executives & philistines who read Harari. Even flaneuring can adapt well. Permalink 2020-08-04 14:33:56

@nntaleb Nikos Phililogos Permalink 2020-08-04 14:21:32

@nntaleb Scribe Permalink 2020-08-04 14:20:21

@nntaleb “Arabic”? WTF? Permalink 2020-08-04 14:19:29

@nntaleb Nobody noticed it is the Saint Petersburgh problem? Power law, if uncapped, with infinite mean. There is a Feller theorem about time to cross the origin following a Cauchy Permalink 2020-08-04 13:56:33

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 2020-08-04 13:29:12

@nntaleb You can easily copy one line, no? Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:53

@nntaleb Typo: m=250/2 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:37

@nntaleb And if you cheat (“verify”) by using Monte Carlo you get the same. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:25:29

@nntaleb My solution: 8.3 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:23:16

@nntaleb Not “Greek” olive oil. Lebanese olive oil from the Koura valley, so only ½ Greek. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:03:21

@nntaleb Not quite, my friend. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:27:22

@nntaleb Ok, Ok, Quiz What is the expected longest run generated by a random 250 coin tosses. A run is defined as n heads or n tails. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:24:14

@nntaleb Actually, no. People mistake length of runs for average of runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:25:44

@nntaleb Thanks Zhuo. Visibly your hand one does not have long runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:03:08

@nntaleb Using a Markov chain to estimate the expected number of runs. The number of runs of 7 must bet ~2 Permalink 2020-08-03 18:59:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you go give advice to someone else? Permalink 2020-08-03 14:17:33

@nntaleb III A wise decision is one that is sound both prospectively and retrospectively, in both foresight and hindsight. Our best definition of #Precaution Permalink 2020-08-03 13:52:37

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-03 13:32:00

@nntaleb Our debate with Ioannidis,II Plus why “forecasting” and “evidence based” are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb HOW TO HANDLE A PANDEMIC Our debate with John Ioannidis. Plus why naive single point “forecasting” and “evidence based” methods are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb You should detect by eyeballing. Permalink 2020-08-03 10:20:31

@nntaleb פה بالعبراني Permalink 2020-08-03 02:30:13

@nntaleb How many hours for $300? Permalink 2020-08-02 23:59:43

@nntaleb This is not quite a PL. Zifplots are insufficient. You need EVT to prove it. Would love to replicate. Permalink 2020-08-02 20:58:51

@nntaleb BM did not like this http://www.chialvo.net/Curso/UBACurso/DIA3/Papers/SOC1.pdf Permalink 2020-08-02 20:53:38

@nntaleb The sandpile story is controversial & supposedly Bak did not have a proof… Permalink 2020-08-02 19:57:42

@nntaleb Blocked the imbecile. He is just a photographer. Permalink 2020-08-02 19:13:37

@nntaleb I have an inside story of Mandelbrot on Per Bak Permalink 2020-08-02 18:44:27

@nntaleb SYSTEMIC RISK: non-diversifiable. You can in principle break-up into n reactors to get the needed risk diversification/prevent Chernobyl from being too large. Permalink 2020-08-02 18:13:10

@nntaleb Systemic = 1 block. Nuclear is in a diff category (non subexponential) Permalink 2020-08-02 16:57:52

@nntaleb In Principia Politica, there is a rule: No institution without an expiration date. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:45:37

@nntaleb Voshart you imbecile this is how you get coloring, by comparison. An confirmed by genetics: Lybians looked no different from other Mediterraneans. You are an imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:42:59

@nntaleb He seems clueless about genetics. He is just a photographer using cultural notions. Many fail to get that Southern Mediterraneans are Western Eurasians (the Europe/Africa distinction is not accurate). Permalink 2020-08-02 15:39:28

@nntaleb Voshart, are you a geneticist? Permalink 2020-08-02 15:38:04

@nntaleb Went away recently Permalink 2020-08-02 13:36:59

@nntaleb Aspetta mi, vengo subito prima che la lasagna si raffreddi Permalink 2020-08-02 13:32:06

@nntaleb I will make it very simple for you: I am picking what method I like not the one you like and you can go fuck off. Simple enough? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:28:29

@nntaleb Dove? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:20:27

@nntaleb I am not saying NUCLEAR is not dangerous. It is in a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:35

@nntaleb I am not saying it is not dangerous. Just a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:05

@nntaleb NUCLEAR I NEVER said that nuclear energy was safe. I said that it does not fall under the Precautionary Principle as there is ~no systemic risk. Nuclear accidents are additive not multiplicative (unlike GMOs & viruses). The risk (for small reactors) remains local not systemic. Permalink 2020-08-02 11:27:10

@nntaleb Then why education? Now shd I get pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:40:26

@nntaleb Hi there Where did you get it from? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:28:24

@nntaleb Learning to cook from fresh dough. Mystery: Why did Sicily discontinue growing sumac? Permalink 2020-08-01 21:09:43

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff and find yourself a hobby with “utility” before you lecture us? Permalink 2020-08-01 20:28:39

@nntaleb My shoulder bans me from deadlifting… Permalink 2020-08-01 19:16:26

@nntaleb Thanks! What’s best of the 4 options? Pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:15:56

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-01 19:12:46

@nntaleb Can you do these rooms in business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:04:54

@nntaleb Charlie can students spontaneously create rooms? Permalink 2020-08-01 14:15:45

@nntaleb Mistake. This is NOT the inquisition. There were trials and sentences were delivered by a (lay) court. This is more like the period of terror during the French Revolution. Soon education will be ONLY delivered by special apolitical institutions like coding camps. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:51:02

@nntaleb We don’t care about costs. We need to be able to create breakout rooms. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:29:14

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-08-01 11:22:23

@nntaleb 80-100 Permalink 2020-08-01 11:20:05

@nntaleb I blame the NYT first. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:19:00

@nntaleb Please do not involve geopolitics, China-US or some conspiracy in a software discussion. The question is precise Zoom for Business of for Education. Do not compare to other methods. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:15:39

@nntaleb This is the Inquisition Permalink 2020-08-01 11:10:51

@nntaleb But a university affiliation is becoming a liability. All downside, no upside. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:08:22

@nntaleb Friends, for #RWRI 14, do you prefer Zoom for Business or Zoom for Education? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-01 10:45:33

@nntaleb No comment for now. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:28:39

@nntaleb That’s another matter. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:24:45

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-01 02:18:08

@nntaleb Without verification… Anyone getting anywhere close to a US university is a moron. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:14:31

@nntaleb Ovadiah Permalink 2020-07-31 18:21:00

@nntaleb Hi Scott You are missing the CENTRAL point: 1) is fragile what does not like volatility everything concave is fragile And reverse: antifragile = convex between a and b. Permalink 2020-07-31 15:42:14

@nntaleb 5) METASTATIC BUREAUCRACIES If you want an illustration, here is one. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:55:15

@nntaleb 4) CREDENTIALIZATION And note how Tedros mentions Harvard to credentialize Sunstein, which wipes out his defects and ignorance of probability. https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1288951939334574080?s=20 Repeat after me: Delenda WHO est. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:11:30

@nntaleb Nassim, he is a professor in a business school. Intellectual fraud is for them business as usual. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:01:04

@nntaleb 3) The Collection of bureaucrats *who meet* for a living and failed to get the risks of the pandemic early on when WE warned, costs us TRILLIONS. Now what do they do? They ADD more bureaucrats like that fraud Sunstein. Institutions learn via bankruptcy. WHO must be DEFUNDED. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:49:22

@nntaleb 2) Do not forget that @CassSunstein made it irrational to worry about the risks of the pandemic in February! WHO must be closed. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:17:56

@nntaleb FRAUD!!!!! If there is a reason to shut down the WHO, here it is. Cass Sunstein is the poster child of pseudo-empiricism. He failed to get pandemics early on and missed on the difference between additive & multiplicative risks. FRAUD! Permalink 2020-07-31 13:15:18

@nntaleb No to the Bisri Dam project. It is economically a scam, and environmentally a DISASTER. Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-07-31 12:52:38

@nntaleb You can return it to them and order here Permalink 2020-07-31 12:01:14

@nntaleb Can you return it and reorder from this? Permalink 2020-07-31 12:00:50

@nntaleb Where did you get yours? Permalink 2020-07-31 11:59:22

@nntaleb Here Permalink 2020-07-31 11:50:54

@nntaleb Yes, I was wondering. My SP02 is 98 when active, 94 when inactive and I thought there was a problem but realized there was none as the problem is the other way around. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:32:05

@nntaleb Hi, Who did you buy it from? We stopped the Book Depository. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:29:02

@nntaleb Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-07-31 11:23:40

@nntaleb Levantine ethics… Permalink 2020-07-30 23:01:08

@nntaleb Fucking moron what does my argument have anything to do with how conservatives behave? Permalink 2020-07-30 21:47:26

@nntaleb On citation rings Permalink 2020-07-30 21:31:44

@nntaleb Yes, I am a staunch advocate of masks (even when it was unpopular). But anyone gloating on the web about the death of Herman Cain is: + shabby + unprincipled + sordid + despicable De mortuis nihil nisi bonum Permalink 2020-07-30 19:53:21

@nntaleb Time to make this a nontechnical chapter in the new book, Vol2 of the Technical Incerto. How you will go bust on a favorable bet. Or why among other things @R_Thaler is a fraud. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp) Permalink 2020-07-30 19:39:10

@nntaleb Interesting warning signs of Alzheimer: He stopped playing bridge ~15 years before he was diagnosed with Alzheimer. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:56:58

@nntaleb The point is that I show in my book evidence that economics is just a citation ring. “Prestige” is just a scam. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:37:23

@nntaleb The idea is: Get data. Derive kernel distribution at bandwidth 1 Get MI[1] Derive kernel dist at finer bandwidth Get M[2] You see convergence as gains are smaller and smaller except for \infty Permalink 2020-07-30 17:15:11

@nntaleb No, there is small effect, so long as you do not use points but distributions. You need perfect relationship = infinity. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:07:05

@nntaleb The difference between continuous (differential) entropy and discrete does not extend to MI. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:49:54

@nntaleb This is an imbecilic interpretation. Sorry I block for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:45:38

@nntaleb Something everybody knows Permalink 2020-07-30 16:10:49

@nntaleb The idea is “is it more useful than temperature”? Permalink 2020-07-30 15:53:22

@nntaleb You’ll never grasp voting patterns & political positions of millennials unless you recognize that a new graduate in about anything theoretical (Bachelor, Master even PhD) earns less than a slightly trained plumber, truck driver, or a carpenter. Reflect & see why Univ. going bust. Permalink 2020-07-30 14:00:49

@nntaleb Many other approaches. Thanks, friends. Permalink 2020-07-30 13:44:54

@nntaleb True Permalink 2020-07-30 12:38:16

@nntaleb He was Levantine. Greek Orthodox. Permalink 2020-07-30 12:18:27

@nntaleb One approach Permalink 2020-07-30 12:09:57

@nntaleb This plus coffee helps you to wake up. [Reminder: non-math related cute comment = block] Permalink 2020-07-30 11:53:13

@nntaleb Genetics show the mummies were Levantine Permalink 2020-07-30 11:04:26

@nntaleb Can detect disease not health Permalink 2020-07-30 10:32:51

@nntaleb FACT DU JOUR Omar Sharif (born Michel Dimitri Shalhoub), an actor with brains: + Elite bridge player + Fluent >5 languages + OK in Greek (like many Alexandrians) + Degree in mathematics + Did not socialize w/actors (except. romance w/actresses) Permalink 2020-07-30 10:31:30

@nntaleb So far I haven’t called anyone a fraud who didn’t turn out to be a fraud. Permalink 2020-07-30 10:10:53

@nntaleb Many people, including some doctors, don’t seem to get what a filter means. https://twitter.com/aashiq/status/1288643170058764289?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-30 02:13:35

@nntaleb Did anyone think SPO2 as instant (5 seconds) filter for Covid-19? Isn’t there more signal than with temperature? Permalink 2020-07-30 00:46:39

@nntaleb The debate with John Ioannidis On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables, with @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Latest version Permalink 2020-07-29 22:08:33

@nntaleb I revise the book every time you read it. Permalink 2020-07-29 21:42:57

@nntaleb ? no idea. Permalink 2020-07-29 20:22:39

@nntaleb Was looking for your address to mail you the book. Permalink 2020-07-29 18:52:20

@nntaleb Pour commence, Argth la Arg tangente hyperbolic, la reciproque de la tanh n’est pas ½ Log… Permalink 2020-07-29 15:22:01

@nntaleb Cet apres-midi. Permalink 2020-07-29 15:12:09

@nntaleb ECONTALK with @EconTalker https://youtu.be/CyOsUbK8PiE via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-29 15:08:19

@nntaleb Imbecilic remark. What does democracy have to do with your own house? Democracy is about voter participation not letting people troll your private feed. Permalink 2020-07-29 14:22:04

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ndehouche/status/1288347895993753600 Permalink 2020-07-29 12:59:52

@nntaleb You need to de-discretize your calcs. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:49:24

@nntaleb More “complicated” in statistical domains. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:29:01

@nntaleb And >2 m people visiting and commuting daily Permalink 2020-07-29 12:06:21

@nntaleb For every person you block, you get 10 new followers. Why? Because the quality of your thread improves markedly; comments are worth reading. Protect your thread. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:43:45

@nntaleb In cities, indeed. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:34:38

@nntaleb Διόρθωση: Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο της *ελληνικής γλώσσας* στο Zoom (Current level: Koiné) Σας ευχαριστώ όλους Permalink 2020-07-29 00:13:37

@nntaleb DM please. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-29 00:04:54

@nntaleb Could be 2 separate problems. The old must not pass on charges… Permalink 2020-07-28 22:28:42

@nntaleb Great Summary Permalink 2020-07-28 22:04:09

@nntaleb For a citation, I had to get a copy of @PTetlock’s (🐁”Phil the rat”) *Superforecasting* & it is worse than I thought, from his work. [Co-author is a shill/lobbyist paid by large corporations to play down their “risk”] It has major, major mistakes & flaws. What to do? Permalink 2020-07-28 21:21:25

@nntaleb I peer review ALL my work one way or another. Permalink 2020-07-28 21:11:34

@nntaleb Additive & multiplicative Risks should never be compared to one another. Multiplicative => fat tails. We have limited the precautionary principle ONLY to multiplicative risks: + Pandemics (only 72 in history) + Genetic modifications spread in nature Permalink 2020-07-28 21:09:00

@nntaleb The way it works: readers read what a reliable friend recommends, etc. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:32:49

@nntaleb Hi there Can you return it back to them? Further instructions to follow. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:16:34

@nntaleb My experience since “Skin in The Game” is to leave it to social media: genuine readers commenting for potential genuine readers. No more critics who filter & decide what *lesser* readers should like or avoid. My books are not sent to the media & “intellectuals”. F*** them. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:58:41

@nntaleb Mush me2lé! Mshwé! W iza me2lé bzeit zeitun msh mazolla (bi fakkru atyab bil mazolla) Permalink 2020-07-28 19:45:06

@nntaleb I block for sophistry. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:25:42

@nntaleb Shipping next week. But if in a rush, cancel and get this immediately. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:02:52

@nntaleb Plugged out (injury) so just low weights. Permalink 2020-07-28 18:41:18

@nntaleb On it Permalink 2020-07-28 18:36:36

@nntaleb Once in a while, the reverse helps. Permalink 2020-07-28 17:47:14

@nntaleb How strong are both of you now? Permalink 2020-07-28 16:45:36

@nntaleb I tried 5 sets of 10, doing math btw sets. Permalink 2020-07-28 16:21:56

@nntaleb Takes a week to know the benefits Permalink 2020-07-28 15:34:21

@nntaleb Separate day Permalink 2020-07-28 15:33:12

@nntaleb Also 5 sets of 10 presses Permalink 2020-07-28 15:28:43

@nntaleb Did you try the 5 sets of 10 deadlifts? Permalink 2020-07-28 15:24:31

@nntaleb Necessary Permalink 2020-07-28 14:21:16

@nntaleb My problem with him. Permalink 2020-07-28 12:18:41

@nntaleb This was promoted in my feed. These ideas that are supposed to help your life destroy it. If a book can be summarized it’s not a book; if you get something in 15 minutes it is not worth getting. Permalink 2020-07-28 11:54:26

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Where? Permalink 2020-07-28 11:44:27

@nntaleb of ours Permalink 2020-07-28 03:02:05

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Not at all. The argument is about convexity. Permalink 2020-07-28 02:00:55

@nntaleb Haha Campaign started in March. Permalink 2020-07-28 01:46:08

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, being “right” means agreeing with you? Permalink 2020-07-27 23:49:26

@nntaleb You are clueless. Permalink 2020-07-27 23:41:43

@nntaleb Attitude? What “attitude”? Permalink 2020-07-27 20:39:36

@nntaleb Will restock up next week or but meanwhile try @zachobront’s link. Permalink 2020-07-27 20:26:38

@nntaleb OK, émtin? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:59:54

@nntaleb Leish ma bte3zemné ana? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:54:55

@nntaleb A reminder from PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-27 19:09:08

@nntaleb Your statement is MORONIC. As you get more information & granularity you target your measures tfor costs and efficacy Permalink 2020-07-27 18:37:52

@nntaleb I wonder why the cancel culture does not go after the chain of retractions instead of innocent idiots like @sapinker Permalink 2020-07-27 18:08:09

@nntaleb “National IQ” is practically an academic fraud. But the fact it went for so long is quite shocking. Permalink 2020-07-27 18:01:20

@nntaleb @ndehouche Permalink 2020-07-27 17:53:16

@nntaleb Squares Permalink 2020-07-27 17:21:25

@nntaleb Reread our paper. Explained there. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:58:28

@nntaleb We have answered that with our degree of fattailedness of certain class of events >>> all others, hence it is not frivilous and generalized worry. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:52:25

@nntaleb I block idiot. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:41:29

@nntaleb NOTHING to do with Regime switching. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:20:21

@nntaleb Was it Amazon or Scribe? Permalink 2020-07-27 14:19:20

@nntaleb I blocked him. I block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-27 13:09:58

@nntaleb It is not the same problem and this is not a highshool problem. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:43:40

@nntaleb Assuming it is an error… Thanks! will investigate. I am always worried when no errors are revealed. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:21:01

@nntaleb The distribution is Uniform below 1. Very very strange. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:16:28

@nntaleb The distribution is uniform below 1 ! Permalink 2020-07-27 12:15:37

@nntaleb Great counterintuitive result in probability. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:10:50

@nntaleb The article is for scientists not for politically driven imbeciles like you. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:13:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-27 02:06:15

@nntaleb Cancel and use our link. Ships immediately. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:04:47

@nntaleb And it feels different: you pull from the nape of the neck Permalink 2020-07-27 02:01:04

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-27 01:59:20

@nntaleb É. Koyné ba3ref shwayy. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:19:36

@nntaleb Here it is more, as it is 90% of the 10 max Permalink 2020-07-27 01:18:04

@nntaleb Grazie. Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:11:40

@nntaleb Also, for variery, tried 10 reps deadlift, 5 times today, and the same with presses yesterday. Feels great, like a sprint. Watched elevated hearbeat and saw it crash. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:08:19

@nntaleb That’s the work equivalent of intermittent fasting. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:05:18

@nntaleb No comparison. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:03:45

@nntaleb Much simpler to cut calories. I reach ketosis eating pasta when I do OMAD. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:02:34

@nntaleb Haven’t practiced in 40 years! Permalink 2020-07-26 21:53:21

@nntaleb Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:51:44

@nntaleb Babbler, not speaker. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:49:50

@nntaleb Αγαπητοί φίλοι και φίλες, Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο στο Zoom Permalink 2020-07-26 21:45:10

@nntaleb Link? Permalink 2020-07-26 21:19:54

@nntaleb He never understood convexity. But cities are Lindy by virtue of location. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:17:40

@nntaleb Traders Permalink 2020-07-26 21:15:09

@nntaleb Cities when not monstrously large. Size is bad. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:49:29

@nntaleb In French, same thing. “Valeurs propres”. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:44:20

@nntaleb CITIES ARE FRAGILE Flaneured around NYC for a day. I spent 2/3 of my life in the area. Saaaaaaaad. Idiots claiming cities “more efficient” don’t realize the concavity/fragility to shocks. See #Antifragile: Rome went from 2.2M to few 100K & took >1500 years to come back. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:06:55

@nntaleb The conductor of the USJ (Jesuit Univ.) chorus in Beirut is a Lebanese woman (I assume Muslim from her name). https://twitter.com/USJLiban/status/1287462673551175680 Permalink 2020-07-26 19:30:44

@nntaleb The rarest (and most valuable) thing on this planet: a clear mind. Permalink 2020-07-26 16:59:15

@nntaleb After a lull, research is undergoing a back-migration to the land of grape leaves, thyme, and olive oil: the Republics of the Eastern Mediterranean. Thanks @polemitis for these ambitious projects; more to come. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:28:03

@nntaleb False negatives are a function of contageousness. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:18:39

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-26 14:03:50

@nntaleb Another misunderstood convexity: frequent testing beats precision. A solution is STARING at us. “Evidence based” idiots can’t easily get it because, as with MASKS, they can’t understand cheap alternatives. Permalink 2020-07-26 12:01:04

@nntaleb Cristo in Italiano e Francese (Montecristo, Monte Cristo) Permalink 2020-07-26 10:37:25

@nntaleb Fi PDF? Permalink 2020-07-25 20:31:05

@nntaleb My friend, not the squid ink sauce. Colored pasta. Permalink 2020-07-25 19:03:46

@nntaleb COVID: A central ethical point: intergenerational liability. Like many central points, goes to the footnote. Permalink 2020-07-25 15:38:11

@nntaleb I avoided mentioning Shiism because it is not clear to me. But for Alawis, it is. Permalink 2020-07-25 14:54:30

@nntaleb Imbecile White != Nordic Permalink 2020-07-25 14:41:41

@nntaleb A gracious and very scientific debate with Ioannidis et al., @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo We add: 1- How individual risks do not map to collective risks. 2- The False Dichotomy economy/disease mitigation. For comments (submitting today) Permalink 2020-07-25 12:14:08

@nntaleb 2) Some religions allow “Taqiyya”, i.e. concealing one’s creed or modifying it to the outside: Gnostic religions, Alevis, Alawis, Druze. Never Sunni Islam or Greek Orthodoxy. Religious history becomes muddled. Early East-Med Christians would rather die than deny their religion. Permalink 2020-07-25 11:44:32

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-07-25 11:38:36

@nntaleb No. DNA has not changed. Permalink 2020-07-25 10:59:20

@nntaleb Was invited to debate him. Permalink 2020-07-25 01:07:30

@nntaleb Taqiyya! Permalink 2020-07-24 22:53:31

@nntaleb The Marranos were nonChristians who upon the inquisition faked Christianity to aboid persecution. Academic Marranos fake it to avoid being cancelled. Some SJW Marranos will secretly vote Trump. Permalink 2020-07-24 22:47:10

@nntaleb Wrong, it is linear Permalink 2020-07-24 21:47:28

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 20:10:08

@nntaleb Yes, it looks much more elegant in CDF Permalink 2020-07-24 19:37:00

@nntaleb We are debating Ioannidis, thanks to @pierrepinson and @spyrosmakrid Our final answer to him was just completed, to post soon. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:34:53

@nntaleb Not the same thing. I was looking for the density, not the CDF. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:29:14

@nntaleb They should cut the “arabic”, to TUnision, Algerian, etc. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:26:28

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-07-24 17:19:59

@nntaleb Yes, sums of Beta distributed B[1/n,1], with a trick. for n=2, pi/4, verifying the general formula. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:16:53

@nntaleb @PZalloua and I will join the U. (soon). We will force them to change the titles: The Prince in Italian, The Republic in Greek, all in the ORIGINAL language. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:08:36

@nntaleb Right I misread X instead of X^n. It is one transformation before. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:03:18

@nntaleb CORRECTION: S^n-1 in numerator Permalink 2020-07-24 13:43:15

@nntaleb Application Permalink 2020-07-24 13:42:35

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 13:39:33

@nntaleb Lyom! Min jéyé? Permalink 2020-07-24 13:13:58

@nntaleb Yes, imbeciles. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:54:20

@nntaleb Voila. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:53:14

@nntaleb INEQUALITY DU JOUR This one is easy enough for morning coffee. Helps start the weekend. [Non-math commentators, please do not pollute the thread] Permalink 2020-07-24 12:15:18

@nntaleb His wife is native Syrian speaking from Turkey. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:28:59

@nntaleb Doesn’t look Lebanese at all. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:15:48

@nntaleb It was never inside the article Permalink 2020-07-23 22:35:48

@nntaleb OK Permalink 2020-07-23 22:28:40

@nntaleb I can put you there. Give me a picture. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:27:26

@nntaleb A Dutcgg photographer clueless about population genetics. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:20:21

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-23 22:17:31

@nntaleb He was Med that’s not Middle Eastern Permalink 2020-07-23 22:16:10

@nntaleb Insufferable… with some… Permalink 2020-07-23 21:47:29

@nntaleb Completamente Permalink 2020-07-23 16:04:50

@nntaleb Which author? Permalink 2020-07-23 11:56:46

@nntaleb And remember the PDF is Free https://researchers.one/article/2020-01-21… https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-23 01:38:29

@nntaleb Unwavering in friendship, unwavery in enmity. Permalink 2020-07-23 01:36:00

@nntaleb Struck a deal Permalink 2020-07-22 16:12:18

@nntaleb That people who asked your type of question should NOT read the book. Permalink 2020-07-22 16:01:13

@nntaleb I was irked at the framing by the NYT Permalink 2020-07-22 15:54:08

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping [Next 2 weeks]. https://thescribestore.com/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb And remember the PDF is Free https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-22 15:53:09

@nntaleb Yes, the outcome & her end “position” is not the question. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:48:15

@nntaleb Actually worse: he was bad to OLD slaves. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:23:05

@nntaleb “Synchronous belief” Permalink 2020-07-22 14:20:40

@nntaleb I like “Mediterranean Studies” or Ancient World Studies since the pillars were Babylon + Egypt Permalink 2020-07-22 14:03:33

@nntaleb Excellent. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:56:20

@nntaleb There is another one, but yours is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:35:47

@nntaleb I saw a commentary on Deuteronomy. There is another one by Rashi but still deciphering. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:24:31

@nntaleb No, imbecile. She was bigottering IN THE article, even if she did not cancel him. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:18:29

@nntaleb 4) Midrash Sefre. Rabbi Yossi HaGalili: אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:14:51

@nntaleb אמר רבי יוסי הגלילי, וכי תעלה על דעתך, שאדם הולך אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:08:44

@nntaleb There is something YOU are not getting, aside from your defective anachronistic reasoning: the NYT DOES NOT publish stuff outside very very narrow parameters (I have 5 Op-Eds there). Permalink 2020-07-22 12:41:17

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:37:20

@nntaleb Thanks but when did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:11:21

@nntaleb They filter Op-Eds, do refuse mine systematically. I published 5 Op-Eds there in the past when the opinion was lined up to theirs. My point isn’t the opinion but the very idea of having to debate canceling a past figure. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:53:53

@nntaleb 3) The Wahabis destroyed ancient ruins in Saudi Arabia (including Islamic ones) to “prevent” idolatry. Soon we will be bulldozing ruins built by slaves (Great Pyramid/Coliseum), then structures built by labor w/o medical benefits, then those by nonvegetarian architects. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:38:10

@nntaleb (Yes I know the NYT ends up “opposed” to the idea of “cancelling Aristotle”, but the mere fact that they suggest the possibility …) Permalink 2020-07-22 11:22:31

@nntaleb 2/ By retrospective bigotteering, they will end up canceling ALL their ancestors, 99.9% of the contents of libraries and any institution older than 5 years will eventually end up canceling itself. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:17:01

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:09:01

@nntaleb Any reference? Permalink 2020-07-22 11:06:37

@nntaleb The NYT suggests cancelling Aristotle. This is retrospective bigotteering; it implies moral values DO NOT evolve. People need to be judged with respect to the morals OF THEIR OWN TIME. (But we can be harsh w/Napoleon who reinstated slavery.) Permalink 2020-07-22 10:53:05

@nntaleb Bingo, Nassim. Saudi/Gulf people despise Levantines and Maghrebis, consider them “impure”. Permalink 2020-07-22 10:36:24

@nntaleb OK same ting Permalink 2020-07-22 00:58:07

@nntaleb Squid ink. A lot of squid ink. Permalink 2020-07-22 00:22:47

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-21 23:58:43

@nntaleb Disagree. CI says roughly you cannot build a function to project over n steps without n-1, and n-1 without n-2. Non analytic, no derivatives, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 23:32:20

@nntaleb TeXpad Permalink 2020-07-21 23:06:26

@nntaleb Alla yer7ama. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:33:18

@nntaleb Tell them Nice try. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:06:58

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi might manage to escape justice for a while, but… where is he going to go? Nice to see one’s villains in a cage, from which they can’t get out. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:30:05

@nntaleb Something tells me that the risk is dose-related, so fewer deaths in the summer, mistakenly attributed to the unavoidable mutation. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:01:20

@nntaleb No cream. Just foam from the beans. Permalink 2020-07-21 19:19:40

@nntaleb The olive smell is intentional. This is the first probability book ever sold in Med grocery stores and luxury olive oil stores. Permalink 2020-07-21 18:46:55

@nntaleb You have the knack of posting videos of me with 20 kg more. Permalink 2020-07-21 17:21:07

@nntaleb Don’t worry if the Lebanese judiciary is frozen. The FT is on the job. This is today. Not a good day to be #RiadPonzi https://www.ft.com/content/d2d63b9b-9669-4ec0-93e9-ed97cbeb9261 via @financialtimes Permalink 2020-07-21 16:54:51

@nntaleb It is all starting now for Lebanese Central Bank Governor #RiadPonzi; we had to wait 10 m after I exposed him at USJ. He tried (& failed) to smear me (but hurt some of my friends) Being #vindictive, I manifest my elation watching the predicted fall of a villain & personal enemy. Permalink 2020-07-21 16:44:19

@nntaleb I don’t think so. Here is the PDF Permalink 2020-07-21 16:04:54

@nntaleb NY Permalink 2020-07-21 16:01:53

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-21 14:58:17

@nntaleb We have a note on country IQ to write. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:53:37

@nntaleb THINGS I LEARNED IN 2020 @rorysutherland told me that working outside, in a garden or in a park doesn’t feel like work. So long as it is outside. Works! Trying it for stuff that is *work* & requires colossal effort: s.a. reading emails from NJ, comments from referees, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:37:23

@nntaleb We knew “nudge” (Thaler and Sunstein) relies on a buch of severe errors in probability. It is actually worse: vastly non-empirical claims. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:04:21

@nntaleb Must be Lebanese, Tiyan is Semitic (Tyan = bird in Lebanese, Tuyyoyo = Arab in Syriac) and not found in French. Plus look at the picture Permalink 2020-07-21 12:56:07

@nntaleb I block imbeciles. Sorry. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:27:28

@nntaleb The same people who worry about “costs” of mitigating the pandemic spend trillions on weaponry “for insurance”. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:15:20

@nntaleb Not segregated in the modern sense. Town vs country, educated vs uneducated. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:09:09

@nntaleb Same tools same coffee grind. Never forget cold water after every sip, the East-Med way. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:05:47

@nntaleb @ndehouche can give you lists, St Augustine being the most known Permalink 2020-07-21 11:31:40

@nntaleb How much $$do they charge? Permalink 2020-07-21 11:03:20

@nntaleb How much is Amz UK? Could be OK Permalink 2020-07-21 10:57:49

@nntaleb Indeed the only podcasts I do is with @EconTalker as, over time, I learned refined economic reasoning from him & developed arguments over a 13 y conversation. Permalink 2020-07-21 10:53:56

@nntaleb Vivi in italia? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:07:54

@nntaleb In 2 or 3 days there will be a link to ship to Europe at minimal additional cost. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:05:48

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:04:54

@nntaleb Grazie. Impari qualcosa ogni giorno. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:02:53

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:57:48

@nntaleb Which is what I asked @Normonic, no? Or is it different when it is not a price, where you use the plural? In Fr it is “combien” for both Permalink 2020-07-21 00:56:37

@nntaleb In a store how you say “how much”? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:50:54

@nntaleb When you ask for a price, you say “quanto” or “quanti”? Curious Permalink 2020-07-21 00:32:52

@nntaleb You are debating someone I’ve blocked for serious defects in thinking. So keep that in mind when you get spurious arguments about what is or what is not “native”. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:29:33

@nntaleb You mean Central Med. Sicily = Central Med Permalink 2020-07-21 00:22:58

@nntaleb Quanto? 35? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:18:46

@nntaleb That’s the narrative used against Palestinians and used by the French to keep Algeria. Permalink 2020-07-20 22:51:32

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-20 21:38:58

@nntaleb We had 6x capacity, 2 y waiting list. Permalink 2020-07-20 21:22:27

@nntaleb 3indak nbid w Nero di Sepia. Shu baddo l wa7ad gheir shi? Permalink 2020-07-20 20:47:30

@nntaleb 3inna RWRI Permalink 2020-07-20 20:44:06

@nntaleb Mush kll l wa2t blebnén: 3 shor bil sené Permalink 2020-07-20 20:36:05

@nntaleb Fuck, no. The Levant only 2. Different culture/origins/history. Permalink 2020-07-20 20:03:46

@nntaleb WTF do you mean “finally”? Permalink 2020-07-20 19:49:57

@nntaleb If the thing is linear y1=a x, y2=b x, it is the integral of the absolute difference Abs[(b-a) x]. If same sign, =(b-a)(x2^2-x1^2)/2, otherwise pick {x1,x2,x3} and use absolute. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:46:59

@nntaleb False dichotomy: it is an error to ignore that the pandemic itself has economic costs and make a trade-off between health and economics. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:26:50

@nntaleb OK OK libya Permalink 2020-07-20 18:31:03

@nntaleb Lybia and Tunisia had Arabic J1e coming in noncoastal areas because nomads could handle the conditions, similar to Arabis. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:29:21

@nntaleb Most in the North did until the 1600s speak a version of it. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:27:41

@nntaleb Baddna zoom @Decafquest Permalink 2020-07-20 18:26:11

@nntaleb Straw man? leb dialect is treated as a “lahja” and descendant of Dus7a Permalink 2020-07-20 18:20:23

@nntaleb Easier to implement. Lebanese and Western Syrian. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:19:20

@nntaleb Konfirmed. Only Tunisia has Peninsular gene flow. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:17:39

@nntaleb heik 3am bi sir Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:33

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:02

@nntaleb Ktir burokratiyyé honik. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:41:58

@nntaleb Hi Not recommended. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:40:21

@nntaleb Some historical facts: Algerians (particularly in coastal cities) spoke Latin for CENTURIES before the French learned it & bastardized it into what is now their language. Make the #SouthMed great again! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:39:04

@nntaleb Evidence: 1 min ago Permalink 2020-07-20 16:46:49

@nntaleb Crap. Permalink 2020-07-20 16:45:29

@nntaleb There is no teleological “forward”. There is one condition: very small steps locally (with occasional large payoffs). Permalink 2020-07-20 16:05:39

@nntaleb Interestingly Rimbaud worked for a Lebanese dealer César Tiyyan Permalink 2020-07-20 14:48:03

@nntaleb The difference betw Classical Arabic and Levantine is stark here. Proves one can reach yuuuuuuuuuge linguistic prowess in Lebanese. This poetry that is never taught in school, repressed by the Arabists & the “left” that aims to destroys nonelite/local languages. @Firsou 1/n Permalink 2020-07-20 14:47:22

@nntaleb Not the point: reverse engineering produces compounding errors under dimensionality. Permalink 2020-07-20 14:20:56

@nntaleb Ana tlmizak! Permalink 2020-07-20 13:58:02

@nntaleb Below 70 Permalink 2020-07-20 13:32:16

@nntaleb My explanation why those discussing genetics of intelligence don’t understand basic multivariate statistics. Also applies to the BS claims by @sapinker. Permalink 2020-07-20 13:04:29

@nntaleb Leish hal akl khara? Mshklét l balad 2yura mtlak. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:59:40

@nntaleb Ana mush mtl Twayné W 2asir, 3ndé 3ilé2at ma3 l kll w ma3 l mashri2iyyé… bass msh ma3 l Salafiyyé wl 3urubiyyé Permalink 2020-07-20 12:51:33

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:13:54

@nntaleb Ma be2ra illa bil mashr2é (Levantine) Permalink 2020-07-20 11:45:06

@nntaleb Here is what he got confused with Permalink 2020-07-20 11:43:33

@nntaleb There is an “i” too many Permalink 2020-07-20 11:39:00

@nntaleb Ana baddé lézém lé2é jém3a 3a zaw2é bté3zmné. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:36:38

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:33:16

@nntaleb Fi byetrko, fi byeb2o, fi byejo! Ba3d ma @PZalloua 2arrar yb2a bi baladna bhal fatra lse3bé, mfakkar ana erja3, la intemé la jém3a bi Lebnén la 2awwé l ma3nawiyyét (w 3allém l tlémiz Data Science). Permalink 2020-07-20 11:29:26

@nntaleb Salibi was a fraud, I block people who promote frauds. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:02:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-20 11:00:54

@nntaleb In old Arabic, Ajami عجمي meant Persian or foreigner, as there was an expression: “al 3rbu wal 3ajamu”. Seemingly same in Osmali. Permalink 2020-07-20 00:22:20

@nntaleb It seems to me from what little Osmali I can make out, that Acemoglu is “son of the Persian”, Acemi+Oglu Permalink 2020-07-20 00:02:23

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-19 23:09:39

@nntaleb Yes in text explain that the collective is AF at the expense of individual restaurants. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:08:06

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 23:04:12

@nntaleb Never thought that. Restaurants have ALWAYS been fragile. The quality benefits from bankruptcies. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:03:44

@nntaleb I live there 3 mo/year … Permalink 2020-07-19 22:55:58

@nntaleb 2eltello Permalink 2020-07-19 22:40:37

@nntaleb Heik 2elello la 7sein mbére7. Permalink 2020-07-19 22:30:03

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order? Permalink 2020-07-19 21:01:42

@nntaleb @PZalloua is writing one. A real one Permalink 2020-07-19 18:46:41

@nntaleb He knows Classical Arabic but his native language is Levantine, 75% of a language away from Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-19 18:45:24

@nntaleb nitpicking: claim not claims Permalink 2020-07-19 17:21:17

@nntaleb nitpicking: speack IN French Permalink 2020-07-19 17:20:44

@nntaleb GODEL DU JOUR Someone hearing me speak french, – Ah you speak French [in French] Me [in French]: Not at all I am faking it (“je fais semblant”) – Sorry I mistakenly thought you spoke Fr Me [in French]: Everyone makes mistakes. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:15:18

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-19 17:09:25

@nntaleb Yes I blocked for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:01:30

@nntaleb The claims that I blocked Saifedean Ammous based on private communication is a lie. I blocked him on the basis of dangerously crankish and conspiratorial public feed. I block all lunatics. Gabish? Permalink 2020-07-19 16:51:29

@nntaleb Leish ya Bourashid ma btktob bil 7 mtlna la nefham bsr3a? Permalink 2020-07-19 13:19:54

@nntaleb Free PDF Permalink 2020-07-19 12:08:57

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 6 Footnotes. a) PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE The quality of hardcover books released now is so bad, as it publishers knew nobody would care about the book after 2 years. b) Few publishers are in for the 3rd wave: Penguin (UK), Knopf, etc. Why? It’s a small market! Permalink 2020-07-19 12:06:06

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 5 So, need to avoid “launches” to avoid the promiscuous 1st wave buyers. My books will not be launched/distributed, just to avoid the buyer who *buys books* rather than someone who wants the specific topic. I started my own publishing for StConsFTails. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:52:01

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 4 I am only interested in the 3rd wave (FBR, INCERTO-1, is ~20 y old); I am in a different business. I shd avoid the First Wave buyer, who doesn’t count long term. They rely on book reviewers (not time), e.g. that BSVendor @EasterbrookG for the NYT. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 3 Most Publishers make $from the First Wave, with increasingly lower quality paper that degrades w/time. Their staff isn’t even equipped for the 3rd Wave as no credits/promotions beyond the first/2nd year when the book is attributed to a specific editor Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 2 Then they move on to the next book & books go to low margin paperback & eventually die. 2nd Wave: Few books survive, only if they have #Lindy attributes, & or if some academic conversation props them up. Third Wave: One in 1,000 -10,000 makes it. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 1 First Wave: Fashion buyers, the class of people who systematically buy NEW “idea books”. The entire book industry organized to sell to them. Books must be “in the conversation”. The hardcover sales is where the $$$are made. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is what I am saying. Tribes and national statism are not the same thing. See PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-19 11:26:03

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 11:01:04

@nntaleb The dark story of the “enlightenment”. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:00:11

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-19 10:56:22

@nntaleb Just ordered. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-19 02:24:50

@nntaleb Ktir 2awiyyé Permalink 2020-07-19 00:16:01

@nntaleb Thanks Mansour! mt3addar it is, from Hydra AND, mysteriously, from an old Semitic tale about a donkey that grows heads when you cut one off. [Practically all Greek myth have a more ancient Aegyptian or Semitic counterpart] Te3dir تِعدير = antifragilty Permalink 2020-07-18 20:49:25

@nntaleb mt3addar! the right meaning. Permalink 2020-07-18 20:20:01

@nntaleb How about متلدن from تلدين, annealing? Permalink 2020-07-18 20:09:31

@nntaleb مش كافي Permalink 2020-07-18 20:07:09

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-18 20:01:59

@nntaleb 3am nt2arrab! Permalink 2020-07-18 19:58:50

@nntaleb לָֹא, יעני תחססנ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:52:22

@nntaleb In Hebrew was Anti shabir אנטי שביר Permalink 2020-07-18 19:49:41

@nntaleb robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:48:12

@nntaleb يعني اكل دعك… و تحسن Permalink 2020-07-18 19:46:36

@nntaleb منيحا هيده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:45:19

@nntaleb لئ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:44:19

@nntaleb متخبط ؟ كلمه جديده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:43:10

@nntaleb No no no Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:45

@nntaleb No no no ماكن= robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:27

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DISCUSSION Looking for a term close to Antifragile in Levantine (not necessarily Antifragile) for a translation of the article with @HsenAndil and @Zzeghedrane. It does not have to be literal Permalink 2020-07-18 19:19:12

@nntaleb Yes, you are right. This was not published… I didn’t recognize my words as I usually polish before putting in a book. Permalink 2020-07-18 18:37:01

@nntaleb I NEVER wrote this Permalink 2020-07-18 17:16:51

@nntaleb If you want. If so, pls add + ergodicity + IQ + GMO(s) + Brier Permalink 2020-07-18 17:13:48

@nntaleb The Khazar theory is but, was some BS by a political journalist. Permalink 2020-07-18 17:06:55

@nntaleb Hold off might get something better Permalink 2020-07-18 13:52:44

@nntaleb But can’t get the distinct Koura smell. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:45:01

@nntaleb I speculate that, aside from the dimensionality problem, e-books cannot produce odors, so I guess no olive oil. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1284470642180587521 Permalink 2020-07-18 13:43:20

@nntaleb How much is shipping? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:37:47

@nntaleb Yes, of course, many historians are rigorous; which part of “usually” was not clear? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:35:19

@nntaleb We changed supplier. New one delivers immediately. You can cancel and reorder. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:33:50

@nntaleb “Orders” Permalink 2020-07-18 13:31:38

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:20:35

@nntaleb No, Aleppo: many look like him there. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:41:11

@nntaleb Cannot resist. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:31:40

@nntaleb 2) This is a “mamluk nobleman from Aleppo”. Explain how one could be BOTH slave and nobleman except in a structure similar to Mafia made man. Historians are usually not very bright; their classifications are absurd & they don’t have the guts or intellect to question them. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:25:48

@nntaleb Ingram the distributor is incompetent. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:13:57

@nntaleb No fucking imbecile, this is IN COMPARISON to other populations. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:12:41

@nntaleb HISTORICAL MUSING of the day: MAFIA & MAMELUKS The Mameluks were military “slaves” (oft. Chris. born) who were paradoxically the ruling class. How? Same w/MADE MEN in the Mafia. Once in you can’t get out. You are both owned by the mafia & part owner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamluk Permalink 2020-07-18 12:10:50

@nntaleb Jaffer, block nitpickers. This has nothing to do with the gender of the predator. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:22:56

@nntaleb He is OK but no scholar. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:57

@nntaleb The biggest BS in discourse is claiming “people are self-interested and *rational*”. No. It is not so “rational” at the individual level; it is rational at the group level to wear mask under multiplicative risks because YOU are part of the multiplication. https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1284190658060668928 Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:02

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 23:17:38

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? This is giving moral support to 000s of youth. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:03:20

@nntaleb Fuck, no. I’ve never seen an economist do real world statistics right. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:00:50

@nntaleb The precedent has begun. Detenuring is easy: close depts. Rent-seeking at the expense of middle class parents eventually has an end. Detenured professors in social science are unskilled labor outside citation rings. You can’t use an economist for gardening or moving furniture. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:45:09

@nntaleb The Indicator function gives you Pi. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:37:05

@nntaleb You represent the East Med. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:59:34

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 18:49:57

@nntaleb This is heroic. 1) Zalloua stays in Lebanon to be honorable/not a deserter. 2) Joins the univ. of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch (even better). 3) We are starting the EAST MED DATA SCIENCE CENTER. 4) Balamand is a 12 C Crusader outpost (Belmont), 6 km from Amioun. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:44:18

@nntaleb Siesta. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:16:46

@nntaleb Genetically, Meds are not made for the sun. 6000-3000 years is not enough. Their skin wrinkles. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:05:56

@nntaleb Why do I despise nitpickers? Tautology in LOGIC is a statement that is true by necessity. Do you mind if I block you? Don’t be offended. It is simple discipline: I managed in my life and in my Twitter feed to get rid of nitpickers. Permalink 2020-07-17 16:58:18

@nntaleb Fox News will some day discover that thing commonly known as tautology. https://fxn.ws/30oLmI2 #FoxNews Permalink 2020-07-17 16:10:23

@nntaleb Not always and not for everyone. Money cured my desire for luxuries. Permalink 2020-07-17 15:48:45

@nntaleb Siesta Permalink 2020-07-17 15:22:25

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-17 14:55:50

@nntaleb That fund? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march Permalink 2020-07-17 14:54:54

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-17 13:41:41

@nntaleb Vero Permalink 2020-07-17 13:37:44

@nntaleb @tomsmith585 https://link.medium.com/ZpadefF7b8 Permalink 2020-07-17 13:33:05

@nntaleb I know it’s comedy. Problem is many don’t Permalink 2020-07-17 13:09:18

@nntaleb Weyn l Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-17 13:04:18

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME! Absense of sense of humor is a marker of a total inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, maxbitcoiners, Salafis, Protestant zealots, NYTcopyeditors, CancelCulturistas & others w/seriously defective intellects. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:55:45

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME thing! Absense of humor is a sign of inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, Salafis, zealots, etc. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:44:52

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people who write nonsense. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:38:45

@nntaleb Thanks to lax law enforcement in some U.S. cities these strategies might be actually used to promote mask use– a step up from social shaming. Permalink 2020-07-17 11:10:11

@nntaleb Any function of it. Permalink 2020-07-17 10:48:45

@nntaleb Why? This is both true and not racist at all since NonGaussian. Permalink 2020-07-17 01:45:50

@nntaleb And the highest title was “second teacher”, as nobody could reach the level of Aristotle. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Farabi Permalink 2020-07-16 22:30:22

@nntaleb There were tonnnnnnnnns of Greek speaking people in the Khalifate (my ancestors and all educated pple in the coastal Levant). But Arabic language thinkers worshiped Aristotle but relied on “the interpreter” who wrote in Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:27:52

@nntaleb حلوة يريت استعملتها لما كتبت انتيهشاش Permalink 2020-07-16 22:12:17

@nntaleb Culinarily, America is now a Med colony. Permalink 2020-07-16 19:13:03

@nntaleb Having a lot of Twitter followers… not necessarily Permalink 2020-07-16 18:32:34

@nntaleb “Israeli style”? You mean Lebanese. Permalink 2020-07-16 18:29:43

@nntaleb You said Arabic doesn’t work Permalink 2020-07-16 18:28:53

@nntaleb As usual, they went to Alexandria … then. Athens was a relic. Permalink 2020-07-16 17:16:38

@nntaleb There is a yuuuuuuge Byzantine production repressed by Euro scholars because of Gibbons and the bad press of the enlightenment. Will find Mavroudi’s lecture. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:34:17

@nntaleb Reinvention; read reintroduction into the consciousness but since 3rd C BC Alexandria was the true Greek center. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:17:45

@nntaleb For 1800 years few Greeks discussed Athens. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:09:38

@nntaleb Which is why Hagia Sophia hurts. Greek is Hellenistic, not Classical; Nordics who reinvented a “Greek identity” w/Greek gods on coffeeshop takeout mugs never get it. Nor do Levantines brainwashed by Arab fascism. Athens is a German Disneyland-style reinvention in the early 19C. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:59:40

@nntaleb New York Suburbs. In normal times, this parking lot for commuters to NYC would be full. Sometimes all it takes is one single image to be hit with reality. I am still in disbelief. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:53:13

@nntaleb Maybe they use past record as prior Permalink 2020-07-16 13:33:27

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1267161610243710976?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-16 11:37:30

@nntaleb Mabruk. Weyn? Permalink 2020-07-16 11:23:20

@nntaleb COVID is an economic stress test: the fragile is being destroyed (universities, airlines); the robust will thrive. It’s mostly an intellectual stress test; destroying fake probability: non-EVT epidemiology, naive”evidence based”(Ioannidis), BS vendors (@PTetlock🐁, Sunstein)… Permalink 2020-07-16 10:48:16

@nntaleb When Turkish was written with Arabic characters, they respected the sounds: “c” was “g”, etc. Permalink 2020-07-16 10:14:51

@nntaleb Palestinians from Galilee, particularly Christians, have the same genetics as Greeks and Southern Italians. Are Greeks “brown”? If so, is Aristotle “brown”? How did you get a theology degree being that stupid? Permalink 2020-07-16 01:21:29

@nntaleb Yes they took over and it was more like made men in the mafia: you are now a property of the mafia while being part owner. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:02:26

@nntaleb It’s going to get better. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:01:26

@nntaleb Never Beirut. It was largely migration into, unlike Tyre. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:45:21

@nntaleb Actually Med genetics! Permalink 2020-07-15 21:35:31

@nntaleb With help from Scribe Media @TuckerMax @zachobront Permalink 2020-07-15 21:22:50

@nntaleb Liguria is Med as hell Permalink 2020-07-15 21:19:27

@nntaleb No child sacrifice is fake news. They just buried dead children together. Greeks have plenty of aged persons in statues. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:15:13

@nntaleb Yes and the Jesuits messed it up with casuistry and use of equivocation. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:30:31

@nntaleb Look at the wrinkles! Permalink 2020-07-15 20:25:11

@nntaleb ALL Roman soldiers were free men, no? Same with Arabs. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:24:47

@nntaleb “Meds try to look older; more prestige…” True Trying to do a portrait for the French Incerto. Will look 24 years older and 24 lbs heavier. Why? this is not a diet/life coaching book. https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMuray/status/1283496199300026371?s=20 Permalink 2020-07-15 20:22:54

@nntaleb White lie. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:18:00

@nntaleb Lying (outside of white lies) is a sin, except when some busybody asks you something personal that’s none of their business or not relevant to the discussion. You are then morally obligated to confuse them. When journos ask me for my DoB, I always give Mandelbrot’s, 1924. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:14:41

@nntaleb Soon Permalink 2020-07-15 19:35:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-15 19:08:18

@nntaleb You can approve it is a different distributor, in stock. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:06:49

@nntaleb Actually it is in from another distributor. So you can wait for old order to be fulfilled or cancel and reorder, but for US only. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:05:40

@nntaleb Could it be Mori? Permalink 2020-07-15 18:59:22

@nntaleb Hi, when did you order? Thanks Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:33

@nntaleb I picked the MOST expensive paper I could find, full color. This is an artisanal book, where I wrote, typeset, formatted. Did the entire thing. Feels like #SoulInTheGame Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:09

@nntaleb Actually, the Naples version is a pun since “muori” is a town nearby. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:28:05

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:47

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:34

@nntaleb Soon you will see more evidence with my notes on the text. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:13:19

@nntaleb Je lis Frédéric Dard pour la langue. Pas d’académie, pas de controle. Permalink 2020-07-15 16:59:28

@nntaleb But those you can’t study for them Permalink 2020-07-15 16:47:29

@nntaleb If you must study for an exam, you will never really know the subject matter. Permalink 2020-07-15 15:49:30

@nntaleb Grant, you can get the class at TJ Max for $6 a pair! Permalink 2020-07-15 13:55:27

@nntaleb “Qui m’ont échappé”, cher compatriote grecophénicien. Permalink 2020-07-15 13:54:33