Monthly Archives: August 2015

GMOs , Joseph Traub, Emanuel Derman | Twitter

Got the GMO renormalization result in closed form: Renorm(n):=1-(1-p)^{4^n}… was too obvious.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 29, 2015
RIP Joseph Traub. In 1996, at a conference, I used his name tag. Someone:”Thought Traub is older”. R:”I eat healthy”

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 29, 2015
With @EmanuelDerman before our lectures making snide comments trying to confuse the speaker while looking serious.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 27, 2015

‘Very tough’ for Fed to normalize: Taleb | CNBC

The Federal Reserve faces a “very tough” task in normalizing monetary policy, as it has limited tools at its disposal after years of near-zero interest rates, academic and writer Nassim Taleb said Friday.
“The Fed is like a huge army with very sophisticated equipment and no ammunition,” he said in a CNBC “Power Lunch” interview.
“They inherited that big machine without weapons. They realize that interest rates at zero is not something normal. And there’s no evidence that zero interest rates is better than 3 percent. But how to get to that normal level is going to be a very, very tough task for them,” the author of “The Black Swan” said.

Source: ‘Very tough’ for Fed to normalize: Taleb

A ‘Black Swan’ Fund Made $1 Billion This Week | WSJ

Universa Hedge Fund, a famous ‘Black Swan’ fund, made more than $1 billion in profits in one week amid volatility.

The recent market rout caught some star Wall Street traders by surprise. But not a hedge-fund firm affiliated with “The Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, which gained more than $1 billion on a strategy that seeks to profit from extreme events in financial markets.

Universa Investments LP was up roughly 20% on Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter, a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed more than 1,000 points in its largest intraday point decline. The blue-chip index finished down 588 points on the day.

The fund’s returns for the year climbed to roughly 20% through earlier this week, this person said. Universa holds positions designed to protect about $6 billion in client assets, according to people familiar with the firm.

“This is just the beginning,” said Universa founder Mark Spitznagel, referring to the market volatility this week. His longtime collaborator, Mr. Taleb, who advises Universa, is a professor at New York University and is known for his pessimistic forecasts on the global economy.

Source: A ‘Black Swan’ Fund Made $1 Billion This Week

The only noteworthy correction I made in the 1900 pages of the INCERTO

The only noteworthy correction I made in the 1900 pages of the INCERTO, written over 18 years, which should come out as single unit:
“To Benoit Mandelbrot, a Greek among Romans” [The Black Swan, 2007]
“To Benoit Mandelbrot, a Roman among Greeks”

As I came to realize that the Romans were noBS FatTonies; they resented grand theories and favored prudent and progressive tinkering. Much of what they built, from constitution, to Roman law, to bridges, to low income housing, to their literature, to their imperial administration (still around in the structure of the Catholic church), have survived 2000 years.

Nothing else of substance was changed.

via: Facebook