Tag Archives: precautionary principle

Benthem, Precautionary Principle, Monopoly, Bayer, Monsanto, Junk Statistics, Wolfers, Piffle | Twitter

@cfshoo You should be much more ashamed of things you didn’t say than you are of things you said. –Nassim Talebpic.twitter.com/I6tGmbbY4u Permalink 3:01 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Easier to get a job in trading/quant/risk if you are a cook than economist. Economists are for networking, gov/nonprofit nonRealWorld. Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Oil is stored solar energy; it is like a battery. The idea is to minimize storage. #RoyalColloquium2016 Permalink 2:51 AM – 25 May 2016

@EmanuelDerman More cleaning up. Lawrence Durrell on economics.pic.twitter.com/wgRRgviI7j Permalink 12:17 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Bentham and the notion of utility see by Marx. @SanguineEmpiricpic.twitter.com/FgAfkBZf1K Permalink 11:40 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Three intense days on the Precautionary Principle near Stockholmpic.twitter.com/xPwrQl3pkJ Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb If you want to convince the other side that you won the argument, you have no argument. Permalink 2:26 PM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 4/4 From a long experience observing mergers, management of 1 of the companies is usually outsed; 1 side cashes out. So Agency Problem. Permalink 7:43 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 3/3: Re: Bayer-Monsanto: we have known robustly since 1986 that mergers create negative returns, largely a game by CEOs for own benefit. Permalink 7:41 AM – 23 May 2016

@CAM_SMlTH @nntaleb a good example of this at the moment with Australian supermarkets/dairy farmers and #milkmohttp://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/20/20/31/australian-shoppers-rally-behind-struggling-dairy-farmers-as-supermarkets-sell-out-of-milk   Permalink 7:24 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Greater monopoly is typically suicide for corporations. @CAM_SMlTH Permalink 6:58 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb My betes noires: + MONSANTO – gone ? + SAUDI BARBARIA – on the way + HILLARY MONSANTO-MALMAISON + Economic Departments + GOLDMAN SACHS – Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Bayer, as far as I know, doesn’t engage in as vicious smear campaigns against scientists as Monsanto does. Permalink 6:27 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb So Monsanto is now dead. Bayer for all its ills cannot possibly be as unethical as Monsanto. Good riddance. Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Historia du jour: Many Caliphs were half-Greek (Al-Wathiq, Al-Muntasir, Al-Mu3tadid) and Al-Muhtadi was 3/4 Greek.pic.twitter.com/k3JryrfHMe Permalink 5:49 PM – 22 May 2016

@Shinfu Madre mía la interpretación libre y mala que se hace a @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/TorrasLuis/status/734480441881833472   Permalink 1:46 PM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb So far the last example of interventionism with huge unwanted consequences…https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/734077065574637569   Permalink 9:12 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb My co-author & I have data showing that Hedge Funds who blew up in 2007-8 were ~ those w/lowest daily volatility/highest Sharpe. @Sevens_2 Permalink 8:37 AM – 22 May 2016

@Chris_Liss @nntaleb FYI – quoted your prior tweet in a piece I wrote:https://medium.com/@chris_liss/on-a-scale-of-1-10-one-being-presidents-dont-have-that-much-power-and-10-being-this-could-end-7016cfe03d0a#.j48yzhh9o   Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Mapping Antifragile/convexity for medical responses, as precisely and formally as possible https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf  pic.twitter.com/WS3PZqjy9L Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 When I hear “data driven” I smell mistaking absence for evidence for evidence of absence, a la Pinker.https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/734403700362481667   Permalink 8:27 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bill Gates is not a risk scientist & not a logician;”data driven” meaningless for complex systems/hidden risks w/Turkey Problems @JonHaidt Permalink 8:23 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is a dangerous charlatan. If you keep him on campus you shd also have fortune tellers & palm readers.https://twitter.com/jonhaidt/status/733614770637524993   Permalink 12:58 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Supreme rigor of the Russian school of probability: they dealt in inequalities not identities @philipbstarkpic.twitter.com/LubP6jkZUJ Permalink 2:30 PM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Clearly, Donaldo is not interventionist. Much of the rest, in foreign policy, becomes a detail.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/734066896794963968   Permalink 10:08 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Everything one does to hide intellectual dishonesty increases dishonesty. When caught lying, @amonck, confess. @Sartor1836 @WLTSchirano Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Liar Adrian Monck, when caught, kept changing the story “not in TBS”, “not in Chapter x”, “not on page x”, etc. @WLTSchirano @amonck Permalink 9:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb MD for “public engagement” @ Davos,Adrian Monck @amonck repeating “no ref to Popper” in T Black Swan. There are 53 mentions of Popper. Liar. Permalink 8:40 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb This tells you the author is a journo. @Confusezeuspic.twitter.com/E8v189RCxl Permalink 6:25 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: To become a mathematican 1- Work w/operators & functionals not just functions 2- in dual spaces 3- measure in proofs 4- what else? Permalink 5:31 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Same Joseph Stiglitz who said FNMAe had no chance of blowing up. Why we need to close econ departments & restart.https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/733871589536628736   Permalink 5:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb It is not just a single tweet that will get Mr Wolfers in trouble #nontrivial … @MadBurry @JustinWolfers @HillaryClinton @bill_easterly Permalink 4:58 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb In probability space, how tail eventsmore effective for threshold dependent outcomes #Medicine @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/zNy1YSAFNH Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb How variability can me more effective/more economical @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/s91lyXDYnP Permalink 4:29 AM – 21 May 2016

@wrathofgnon “Modernity: we created youth without heroism, age without wisdom, and life without grandeur.”— Nassim Nicholas Talebpic.twitter.com/pdFza8MpTi Permalink 5:26 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb …unless you are running for office. Permalink 2:17 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Rule: never immediately attribute to terrorism what can more easily be first explained by incompetence.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/733762983629840385   Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb The Incerto as a Multidisciplinary project in Probability: how to figure out that things link together.pic.twitter.com/KQ9eIn8pIN Permalink 12:34 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb For more technical explanation why retire Standard Deviation https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/standarddev.pdf  https://twitter.com/newsycombinator/status/733674236410265602   Permalink 11:21 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Formalizing #Antifragility in Medicine: Putting together stuff/making notation uniform for @markomankapic.twitter.com/h58PnG7BjY Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement “economics is abt making all of us better off” means “economics is abt making ALL economists [bureaucrats/empty suits] better off” Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mark you are tooooo much in a hurry. Interesting things take some time. @GuruAnaerobic @JustinWolfers Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb When someone @justinwolfers living frm charitable contributions judges the knowledge of businessmen #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/733477369852231680   Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers @JustinWolfers & I will soon have an entertaining (possibly one-sided) discussion of probability theory @theYoungerPitt Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Students saying “fat tails” instead of “cheese” at partypic.twitter.com/8pZjuWvYsP Permalink 3:34 PM – 19 May 2016

@nntaleb As predicted Donaldo having secured thenomination is now going for the left wing votes. Brilliant!https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/732893573365010432   Permalink 6:23 PM – 18 May 2016

@nntaleb This fellow, it now transpired, also works for Monsanto. Explains methods in (failed) smear campaign against me.http://nyti.ms/1wOx2Fq   Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 May 2016

@beachvetlbc Evidence is- there are NO HUMAN studies to support GMO safety claims & remaining animal studies don’t either @mindlessfunk @kevinfolta Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The full text is at http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/significance.pdf   @RodBerne Permalink 2:45 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A summary of our problem with the junk statistics of Pinker.pic.twitter.com/DJlsTVM8eQ Permalink 2:40 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb I am not a UK taxpayer, so I cannot ethically voice an opinion for which I pay no price if wrong. #SkinintheGamehttps://twitter.com/Sapere_vivere/status/732678594988740609   Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Looks like the Incerto is finally going to be ONE book (in one boxset)! Don’t tell my publisher I showed it!pic.twitter.com/F8S4fQW4es Permalink 2:00 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was 1) not Roman, 2) not Holy, and 3) not an Empire. @sevanslux Permalink 8:34 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Roman Empire is centrally a Mediterranean culture, structure, way of being, etc. “Europe” is a much later thingyhttps://twitter.com/CultureHouse/status/732593649704374276   Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A clearer point of #Antifragile @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/Yr3ltKbmAW Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers will soon discover that doing probability right is much much harder than it looks. @iMetaldog @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 May 2016

@ZbraPntedDonky @nntaleb @mpigliucci @PembertonT Whenever someone leads off “With I haven’t read the book but”, prepare for pretentious piffle. Permalink 4:57 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Pigliucci has the knee jerk reaction of the academic rat: dismiss w/o knowing. Not scholarly @ZbraPntedDonky @mpigliucci @PembertonT Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb It is in Diogenes Laertius (tons of references) https://www.google.com/#tbm=bks&hl=en&q=zeno+of+citium+maritime+loans+diogene+laertius   @mpigliucci strikes me as a rationalistic ignoramus @PembertonT Permalink 4:53 AM – 17 May 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb’s “Shillary vs The Donald” Cheat Sheethttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-16/nassim-talebs-shillary-vs-donald-cheat-sheet   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr @JustinWolfers do your papers on betting/long shots take account of these biases? Couldn’t find.Thank you.pic.twitter.com/Se3PPSPjQy Permalink 4:01 PM – 16 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb Will this (lazy way) become a 21st century way? Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb If you believe that crank Falkenstein, here is something for you http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   @z31r4m @Napoleonlegal Permalink 8:42 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Latin du Jour: Where I discover that “asinus asinum fricat” (donkey rubs donkey)translates to “Salma quotes Sabrina” https://twitter.com/BanPaidMedia   Permalink 6:46 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer ones. Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Used a one-tailed dist for x @HarryhongHong @markomankapic.twitter.com/uZkV4omqAg Permalink 4:49 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb How we transfer from dose response to probability space. Param a controls fatness of tails. @mjd1735 @markomankapic.twitter.com/xsUi5afFIu Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan. @hopps3 Permalink 4:46 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer @BoustanyMazen Permalink 3:39 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Comparing outcomes and foreign policy for Trump vs Hillary in a more rigorous waypic.twitter.com/ujwQS3iXmb Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 May 2016

@GuruAnaerobic @nntaleb Press hav just done this with Boris Johnson – “Boris has compared EU to Hitler!”. Yet this is what he said:pic.twitter.com/J3M2sNUvtD Permalink 1:02 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb We need @holland_tom: From Caesar to Herakles Rome had 7 full centuries of domination of Med, vs ~100 y as a Republic @JohnMinehan1 Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb So, Charlatan Noah @Noahpinion, sorry, but web won’t be a hospitable place for strawmanning/intellectual dishonesty.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731294077006848006   Permalink 10:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Tactic by journos: catch them committing straw man they gang up strawman more portraying you “thin skinned”, as this imbecile @TimOBrien Permalink 9:18 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb How Journos are marketing Trump.pic.twitter.com/kTqyX1GT1X Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb This summarizes how we can introduce a formal view of fragility in Medicine. Any comments? @markomankapic.twitter.com/3FLXaatSNj Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 3) If I had to pick the persons in power the most ignorant of complexity/interactions: Henry Kissinger & Hillary Clinton-Monsanto-Malmaison Permalink 8:22 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) I am not saying the US needs an emperor, I am saying the US to stay a true republic should be noninterventionist.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731684287355981824   Permalink 8:20 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fact du jour: Rome was the dominant empire & a republic for a short period, 3rd punic war to Rubicon ~90 years. Permalink 8:15 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Sorry. Blocking was done automatically when the PR firm Ketchum was harrassing me; all followers of blocked were autoblocked. @Chris_arnade Permalink 7:14 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Surviving traders can think clearly. Others I am never sure except when I see the math/formal reasoning. Skin in the game. @learnfromerror Permalink 6:30 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This guy has an admirable behavior: he hates my guts & I blocked him. He should be a trader if he isn’t one already.https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/731593316198846464   Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 May 2016

@AmuseChimp would @Noahpinion be as much of a bullshitter if duels still existed? Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Lost all respect for Petraeus: at SALT he said wem shd be forgiving w/SaudiBabaria re 9/11 as “an ally”. Bureaucrats are Morally Nauseating. Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb The point is not just the 28 pages linking to Saudi Barbaria, it is what has been taking place SINCE then.https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/731179284203769856   Permalink 5:09 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Retribution should be rare, but when you do it, go for the jugular.https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/731630974740631552   Permalink 5:04 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Five hours left to vote on how to deal with Charlatan Noah Smith @Noahpinionhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/731294077006848006   Permalink 12:44 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This is exactly what I meant. @markmadsen @swardleypic.twitter.com/haN8RMiOY5 Permalink 10:20 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works slowly in the real world: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/fattails.html   @urcum62 @financequantpic.twitter.com/7MYU9w52L5 Permalink 7:39 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works very slowly for finite variance infinite higher moments such as cubic @urcum62 @financequantpic.twitter.com/DbncpwkpUM Permalink 7:37 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb I never threated. I act first as with Charlatan @noahpinion then threaten when finished. @Fight_Whisperer Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb A generalized sigmoid curve for dose-response in Medicine. Has anyone seen such generalization in lit? @markomankapic.twitter.com/vq3KoT0r4p Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony rarely reacts but when he does so he makes up for it and never stops until the fellows goes into hiding @PaulSkallas @Noahpinion Permalink 6:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If Charlatan Noah Smith @noahpinion smears again http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   I should expose him with what multiplier? Permalink 6:24 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Balkanization works Balkanization stabilizes Balkanization reduces oppression of minorities @yaneerbaryam @WLTSchirano @joshua_landis Permalink 2:54 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Remember: Turks killed more minorities after their “Westernization” than pripr. Modernism. @davefobare @GrkStav @yaneerbaryam @joshua_landis Permalink 2:08 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Secularism failed in the Levant & Turkey. Best to do an @yaneerbaryam “better fences make better neighbors”. Decentralize! @joshua_landis Permalink 1:48 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If you smell what I smell there are 17 million Alevis in Turkey. Trad they conceal their faith. So expect more…https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/731219043240173569   Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: Do non-initially convex dose-response functions exist in nature? #Medicine #Antifragile @markomankapic.twitter.com/QcAqUkJqiz Permalink 12:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Second edition of The Bed of Procrustes @JohnDCookpic.twitter.com/FzDGAom67o Permalink 8:33 AM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Solution to the Gibrat vs Mandelbrot problem: When bounded, locally power laws have lognormal tails. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.06731.pdf   @financequant Permalink 7:28 AM – 13 May 2016

P Values, Deadlift, Precautionary Principle, Trump, Virtue, Kapish?

@nntaleb In high frequ quant finance we use >10^6 data points & nobody knows pvalue. Psychologists trying to get away with 10https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/717366620331618304   Permalink 7:02 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Normal humans can learn from Iraq and Lybia. Journalism became the last refuge for those with brain defects.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/717880860066856960   Permalink 6:56 PM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My Skin in the Game WIPhttps://twitter.com/evonomicsmag/status/717556674559668224   Permalink 4:03 AM – 6 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Por primera vez, texto en español [Bogota]https://twitter.com/luiscano/status/717442396473135104   Permalink 2:54 PM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To paraphrase Yogi Bera, 90% of deadlifting is mental; the other half is physical. Permalink 8:13 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Meanwhile a 80% power for a test and 5% p-value aren’t science.Pick a large n & fughedaoudit http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf  pic.twitter.com/SUMZ6zCBeA Permalink 8:01 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Instead of risking Max deadlift, easier to figure it out from max{lbs: 3 reps <=failure}. @Pete_Spence @georgepearkes Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb in lbs of course. Permalink 6:32 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What is the max deadlift for a noncompetitive flaneur like me (adj. by age group) that would be considered decent? Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2016

@esalazar_y There are only two people missing #Seneca and #FatTony @nntalebpic.twitter.com/aojYNa4QNk Permalink 6:37 PM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle Simplified: Started rewriting @yaneerbaryam @normonics @RupertReadpic.twitter.com/i12VkJn8WC Permalink 11:40 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@kupiako @nntaleb @DontFadeeMeBro And his father died in 1999 Permalink 7:28 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Main diff betw. Trump and Fat Tony: 1) His FatToniness doesn’t like publicity, 2) Fat Tony wouldn’t marry a model.https://twitter.com/UncleDario1/status/716995760181616641   Permalink 7:30 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Also Trump had 4 siblings. @DontFadeeMeBro Permalink 7:26 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I only trust people who don’t care about their reputation. Virtue ethics is about acts of virtue even if they come with negative reward. Permalink 7:25 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That is a myth about Trump’s inheritance. Work the numbers of cohort of others who have inherited.https://twitter.com/gweirydd/status/716993004096077824   Permalink 7:20 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal: Rediscovers scaling laws, how fragility increases with size.pic.twitter.com/55uXlT5XwD Permalink 7:15 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 305): Politicians sh**t scared of the press.pic.twitter.com/ZwM5grWlsV Permalink 7:11 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (pp. 282-283): How consultants & executives don’t hold a candle to someone w/ #SITGpic.twitter.com/24nofJ5AcN Permalink 7:08 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “To me, committees are what insecure people create in order to put off making hard decisions.” Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 281) Permalink 7:05 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My hobby is busting bullshitters @iandavidmorris, a la Feynman: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”https://twitter.com/Priapus_D/status/716972631925387264   Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The fellow did not break the truth: comments in prnthss which is NOT standard but NOT unethical. Kapish? @semperfidem2004 @iandavidmorris Permalink 3:04 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In real science it is not about whether the scientist has the right standards; it is about his THEORY. Kapish? @homophonous @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:19 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) which is why Lux.’s theory is a valid hunch; disproofs are unrigorous w/absence of evidence fallacies. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:08 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1/Every Arabic speaker who had to memorize poetry knows that pre-Islamic vocabulary is v. different from Q. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink 2:05 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@republicofmath MT @MathFour Engineers think equations approx reality. Physicists think reality approx equations. Mathematicians know equations are reality Permalink 11:31 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) So in spite of his solecism I find him closer to the SUBSTANCE of the subject matter than your elaborate nitpicking @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:40 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) As I said he knew enough Syriac to have detected the problem and confused Payne Smith for his daughter’s translation. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:38 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb His “sparkle” is in Payne. Check again. Attacking someone’s thesis on his etiquette is failing us: we care about the truth @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally, in my world (science, search for truth), scholarship is about SUBSTANCE, not trifles. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:16 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb What makes me doubt your scholarship is that the fact that you did not check if the language was from Payne, not his own. @iandavidmorris Permalink 12:15 PM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You are conflating breach of ethics & breach of the etiquette of a research milieu. By nitpicking, you reinforced his thesis.@iandavidmorris Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 If it weren’t for Obama, Shillary Clinton wd have transformed Damascus into an AlQaeda or ISIS Base. Keep her on the lecture circuit. Permalink 9:33 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to keep Shillary out of the White House. Whatever it takes, even if it means having a robot as president.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/716644245977899008   Permalink 9:24 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary: Anything that has an infinite (or “long”) shelf life (i.e. “sustainable”) falls under Precautionary Pple.pic.twitter.com/55pwCgaJM0 Permalink 6:55 AM – 3 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I think I got the p-hacking distribution & given no outcry by psych trolls it isn’t a “rediscovery”. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @learnfromerror Permalink 3:13 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody can explain why the neocons are buying that Saudi Barbaria is helping Syria to become democratic. Is neocon a result of brain damage? Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If all progress is innovation, all innovation is not progress. As a matter of fact, 99.9% of innovations fail. @sarah_cone @uistbhoy88 Permalink 9:39 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that hotshot architects try to impress other architects and we are left paying the price. #noskininthegame Permalink 7:52 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Rainy Saturday: density of the preimage of the power of test. Concavity of measure, mean is lower than orig powerpic.twitter.com/mKd3T2CyNR Permalink 7:49 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sadly, when a gentle, low-testosterone looking person promotes peace, he is much less convincing than a warrior-looking bully. Permalink 6:45 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that, unlike with fashion, music or cinema, fads leave a permanent scar. Permalink 4:59 AM – 2 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This summer I want to learn a new language. Which sequence is preferable? (Urdu as proxy for Hindi for script). Permalink 2:49 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Metadistribution: The dist of the pre-image of a power of a test. In other words, Power is as BS as P-Value.pic.twitter.com/xAGvyuqmjk Permalink 1:08 PM – 1 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms You know you’re a sectarian fraud when you say Assad must go for humanitarian reasons while cheering the Saudi-led carpet-bombing in Yemen. Permalink 2:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016

@nntaleb P-value is a stochastic measure. Stochastic measures are not measures. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pvalues.pdf   @dsquareddigest Permalink 11:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fixed! @SandrewFinancepic.twitter.com/fWj8wc5z5F Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Connecting the Precautionary PPle to Peters and Gell-Mann(2015); something MISSED by the idiots in decision theory.pic.twitter.com/sOplMWr1we Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We are reframing the MINI CERTIFICATE IN RISK TAKING as risk management is back office, risk taking is front office. http://realworldrisk.com/inaugural_program_comments   Permalink 8:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@garyruskin Then: #Monsanto hid the truth about PCBs http://bit.ly/1C6Gupx  . Now: Monsanto says “Roundup Is Not A Carcinogen” http://wbur.fm/1MZz35R   Permalink 6:12 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Summary of philosophical approach to the inverse problem (in Silent Risk).pic.twitter.com/Sw3BQt1kvW Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The precautionary principle papers: No, there is no *scientific* evidence “GMO” are safe http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  pic.twitter.com/d08P8gYtLr Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Apr 2016

GMO Alarmist Nassim Taleb Backs Out of Debate. I Refute Him Anyway | Reason.com


Biotech Crops and the Alleged Risk of Human Extinction

Taleb and his colleagues want to impose their supposedly non-naive version of the precautionary principle to forestall activities when “consequences can involve total irreversible ruin, such as the extinction of human beings or all life on the planet.” And GMOs, they feel, could result in “irreversible environmental and health damage” or cause “an irreversible termination of life at some scale, which could be planetwide.” Biotech crops, they claim, pose a systemic risk of global ecocide.

It is a trivially true statement that if some activity will eventually lead to total ruin, then total ruin, even if it takes a long time, will eventually follow that activity. Taleb and his colleagues just assume that producing and growing modern biotech crops is such an activity, then trivially predict a GMO apocalypse. There is a lot of hand-waving about the dangers of global connectivity and dose response relationships that may be relevant to the workings of financial markets, but they provide no justification for their assumption of biotech disaster. Unwarranted dire assumptions in; unjustified devastating consequences out.

Source: GMO Alarmist Nassim Taleb Backs Out of Debate. I Refute Him Anyway. – Reason.com
HatTip Dave Lull


The anti-GMO crowd got very excited that a pro-GMO activist who just graduated with a math PhD “attacked” our paper. It is the first comment by a “mathematician” which seems to be a big deal. Let us discuss here. Please ignore the technical in my answer.

via: Facebook

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Precautionary Principle and Genetically Modified Organisms | EconTalk

Russ Roberts
Hosted by Russ Roberts

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Antifragile, Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about a recent co-authored paper on the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and the use of the Precautionary Principle. Taleb contrasts harm with ruin and explains how the differences imply different rules of behavior when dealing with the risk of each. Taleb argues that when considering the riskiness of GMOs, the right understanding of statistics is more valuable than expertise in biology or genetics. The central issue that pervades the conversation is how to cope with a small non-negligible risk of catastrophe.

Time: 1:07:37
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Precautionary Principle and Genetically Modified Organisms | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty.