Tag Archives: SSRN

S. Arabia, Hariri, SSRN, Copyeditors, Catalans, Monsanto | Twitter

@nntaleb Hariri’s resignation: idiots in Saudi Arabia and the U.S. admin are geopolitizing the Lebanese conflict.https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 3:19 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb No difference of opinion shd EVER allow spreading fake memes. But no difference of opinion shd EVER lead to call for censorship. pic.twitter.com/pM66gWRkuM Permalink 1:10 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb There is something nonrandom about seemingly unconnected events in the past 36 hours in Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/Saudi_Gazette/status/927272465398673409   Permalink 1:01 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@u_vakalate @nntaleb #Lindyhttps://twitter.com/JPdeRuiter/status/926845583691780096   Permalink 12:50 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Being nice in a non-BS way. pic.twitter.com/lZtiYK3ycQ Permalink 5:13 AM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb When one suddenly realizes the pun is in … Persian.https://twitter.com/SabbaghManar/status/927099168786669569   Permalink 3:49 AM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb S. Arabia: Could be pre-emptive purge. Could be abortive putsch. Could be just acceleration of reform. Still early for pronouncements.https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/926930506826035200   Permalink 3:09 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) For the Holy Roman Empire was never Roman: Byzantium was. Nor was it ever Holy. Nor was it an Empire. Permalink 1:34 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 1) N. Europe’s usurpation of Ancient Western Civilization (Med) was started w/the Holy Roman Empire usurpation of the Roman Empire. Permalink 1:33 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink with @MichaelSagnerMD pic.twitter.com/by4McV1eaW Permalink 11:11 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@GhassanDahhan Never understood why Liberals like to see an Islamic Reformation. It’s already here: it’s called Salafism. Permalink 9:10 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb You can see the Lindy effect: of the 100 authors that made it ~70 y later, I think ~16% had the Nobel. Permalink 9:00 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Correction. Note that Hariri is a BANKRUPT Saudi lackey living partly in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 6:05 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that Hariri is a Saudi lackey living partly in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 5:58 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Practical consequence on BigData BS: Divide a state into 16 counties: 17% probability of 1 county RANDOMLY having 6 times the state average. Permalink 5:51 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The shortest (but not necessarily best) answer, using combinatorics. cc:@erugli pic.twitter.com/sj2CK8TXnK Permalink 5:07 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@mikeandallie Sharing @nntaleb ‘s dart probability problem with kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/11/04/sharing-nassim-talebs-dart-probability-problem-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 4:43 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 98 1/8 (Ulysses) Permalink 12:19 PM – 3 Nov 2017

@JackBMontgomery After France orders cross removal, Hungarians ask: “Is everyone entitled to religious freedom except Christians?”http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/11/03/hungary-religious-freedom-christians-france-cross-pope-statue/   Permalink 8:39 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@nntaleb OK, literary books. Permalink 8:00 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Le Monde’s 100 novels of the 20th C. (actually, good list, average ~ 50 y after pub). How many have you read? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Monde%27s_100_Books_of_the_Century   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/96FJ4fHiL1″>  pic.twitter.com/96FJ4fHiL1 Permalink 7:55 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@PoliticalShort Hillary last week: I didn’t know anything about the dossier until after it was published Hillary this week: Damn right I paid for dossier! pic.twitter.com/e9K29jWu1t Permalink 3:05 PM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem becomes very, very simple if you reformulate it. That’s the point of the exercise. Permalink 6:31 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ: How randomness should almost never look random. (spurious cancer cluster in Fooled by Randomness) @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/1Svrn0IB69 Permalink 3:50 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ: How randomness should almost never look random. (spurious cancer cluster in Fooled by Randomness) @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/1Svrn0IB69 Permalink 3:50 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@QuantWolfLine At some point the word “liberal” got hijacked…classical liberalism was free markets, freedom of speech, strength of individual liberty, freedom of religion…”neo-liberalism” is completely opposite beholden to collectivism, more power to centralized state, etc. Quite distorted Permalink 6:25 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@ntferris Yes, Arabism is just a secular form of Islam. We are Rum, the Romans Permalink 1:18 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Here is my page on arXiV. For now, of course. Will me adding all papers in a few days. https://arxiv.org/a/taleb_n_1.html   Permalink 1:06 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Closed. No more SSRN. pic.twitter.com/kKEA1SQWDW Permalink 12:52 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@DavidDiGiovanni Love when someone tries to refute a popular intuition with statistics and then someone who actually understands statistics calls BShttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/925767998182494214   Permalink 12:39 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words, what Brenner can’t get, is that the other car on the highway is not trying to kill you. False comparisons. Sad! Permalink 11:03 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People don’t discriminate on ethnicity/class as much as on looks/ attractiveness. Are diversitymongers focusing on wrong attributes? Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb For those slow in getting it, terrorism is game-theoretic, terrorists get the signal to attack if you reduce vigilance, unlike health. Permalink 10:39 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Why we should NEVER compare terrorism to hear attacks. Gabish?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 10:09 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb How to use statistics to produce BS. Total BS. 1)Terrorism is fat-tailed 2) Terrorism is low BECAUSE we fight it.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/925765918814277632   Permalink 9:54 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb There is practically nothing liberal among liberals http://www.thecollegefix.com/post/38465/   via @collegefix Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@ccz1 @nntaleb made me aware of this rule of thumb. the less we know the name of the government leader, the more free is that countryhttps://twitter.com/HofSwitzerland/status/925622194608267264   Permalink 5:04 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Aramaic (bilingual) du jourhttps://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/925412399343128581   Permalink 5:03 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The skin in the game symmetry does more for social justice than all the communist BS taken together. pic.twitter.com/UJ1nAjkpPa Permalink 1:03 PM – 31 Oct 2017

@paulportesi @nntaleb As you state Nassim, “The evidence come later”. U.S. moves to revoke that soy protein protects the hearthttps://reut.rs/2ltN4Xa   Permalink 6:21 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Why correlation is not …correlationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 5:57 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Big data schmig data pic.twitter.com/mhwr7INCB5 Permalink 5:56 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb My class lecture tonite. Why PCAs are not PCAs: noise. Marcenko-Pastur for tin-tails, Monte Carlo for Fat Tails.https://twitter.com/strifenjustice/status/925344164245622784   Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Nitwit, I do not write SCIENTIFIC papers on Medium. Permalink 3:55 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Science should be science. pic.twitter.com/ZH8Xsylfgk Permalink 3:54 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb I am closing my account with SSRN. My papers will be on ArXiv. pic.twitter.com/JUHBSGSv1z Permalink 3:45 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@NAChristakis This is what rule of law looks like. Liberal professor who I’m sure has no love of DT (& neither do I), makes this argument. #respect 1/https://twitter.com/profronsullivan/status/925047026362011648   Permalink 10:34 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@gbponz if @nntaleb were to be chairman of UK’s FSA, an A4 sheet would contain all necessary rules. double spaced. Permalink 10:14 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Further, wrongly accusing someone of “discrimination” is as odious as discrimination itself. @RogueRad Permalink 8:47 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb decision without asymmetry science without skepticism Permalink 8:40 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb #Asymmetry Permalink 7:59 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Sexism, racism, & other forms of discrimination are odious Some don’t get that discrimination in the opposite direction is equally odious Permalink 7:53 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK. The book is done. pic.twitter.com/y5QjbIkEAM Permalink 5:24 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@normonics In the not distant future, GMO peddlers will be widely regarded the way cigarette peddlers are pic.twitter.com/Lx7zF8SCEC Permalink 5:18 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb I have no trouble paying, it is just the paperwork. Permalink 4:41 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Practically EVERYTHING MSM told us about the Syrian war was bull***t. Bull***t manipulated by Qatar/Saudi Arabia.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-28/shocking-viral-interview-qatar-confesses-secrets-behind-syrian-war   Permalink 4:06 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Friends, looking for a public domain picture of Eddie Hall weightlifting. Thanks in advance! pic.twitter.com/9iKQ7Fg7AY Permalink 3:47 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@sazohaib would love to recommend my son INCERTO as Bible to face real life. @nntaleb real thanks and love!! pic.twitter.com/5UTf307BF3 Permalink 1:45 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Coin Tossing Contest https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Probability/CoinTossingContest.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/C3RMurlrFZ”>  pic.twitter.com/C3RMurlrFZ Permalink 11:18 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Quiz du jour as a general solution to A B’s quiz. pic.twitter.com/2ULmK1AnXY Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@DrKassandraPari Fine principle And it’s prominently enshrined in Art 1 + 3 pic.twitter.com/jEVkuJsGHN Permalink 9:51 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Hammurabi’s code: He who falsely accuses someone of a crime is to be penaliized as if he committed it himself Applies to all: right,left,… Permalink 7:31 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Maybe it is not for you. You should go read someone else. Or the @NewYorker Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Give a text to a copy editor. He will make 3 changes per page. Accept,then give to another editor. You still get 3 changes per page,& so on.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/924239022460952576   Permalink 5:41 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb There are not two different issues. Never contradict your political stance w/your personal behavior. That’s the idea of #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/WilliamBerkson/status/899325238160371721   Permalink 2:25 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@MarkDice Hey @Jack, please explain the rationale for suspending Roger Stone, but not Keith Olbermann. — Signed, every conservative on Twitter. pic.twitter.com/i4JhSO5aD0 Permalink 7:25 PM – 28 Oct 2017

@garyruskin “It’s a situation that is so catastrophic and appalling,” farmer says about the use of #Monsanto’s #dicamba producthttp://nbcnews.to/2zWwwKN   Permalink 10:27 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb IRS bureaucrats harm citizens. They pay a fine, not paid by bureaucrats, but by the government, that is, citizens. #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/924312377310498818   Permalink 9:36 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@jeitoapp The Lindy Effect exists precisely to discount short term luck Permalink 9:23 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb By definition, what works cannot be irrational. #lindy, #skininthegame Permalink 9:19 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@justinno Beginning @nntaleb’s Bed of Procrustes, first two aphorisms get right to why/skin in the game. (Will read more when 2yo gives book back) pic.twitter.com/CyY8Ciwgyb Permalink 5:39 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Classify Iranians as “Asians”,then you MUST classify ½ classics as “Asians”:Lydians, Bithynians,Ponthians, Cilicians, ~all church founders Permalink 5:09 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb How to deal with copyeditors. The more nitpicking a copyeditor, the more likely he is to miss an important mistake. pic.twitter.com/mFLM2mYnrs Permalink 4:38 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb How many of the people retweeting this actally have courage? 1 in 100? 1 in 1000?https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/923892383837691904   Permalink 5:04 PM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb “Mr T, I like your work but you call too many pple fraudsters” Me: “There are many fraudsters” Permalink 4:47 PM – 27 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probabilities in powers of 2 pic.twitter.com/2H4qU3uExS Permalink 11:19 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@darwinemkt & only ppl who put their careers on the line, like @jordanbpeterson & @GadSaad do, can claim to having #skininthegame 2/2 Permalink 9:21 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb You need to realize that the only thing a career academic can really teach you is how to be a career academic. Gabish? Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Sutor, ne ultra crepidamhttps://twitter.com/dbwharto/status/923855377774542849   Permalink 3:18 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb There is NEVER (narrow) evidence of Black Swans before event By Hitchen’s logic, someone who never died = immortal, as no evidence of death. Permalink 3:16 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb The heroes of history were not virtue-signaling library rats. You can’t learn classical values from career “classicists”. (just added) pic.twitter.com/Ex31CPs2ZW Permalink 2:45 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@s3og6e .@nntaleb next book >Skin in the Game< is coming out Feb 27. I can’t wait to read it. His announcement on FB. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/photos/a.10150109720973375.279515.13012333374/10155335114528375/?type=3&theater   Permalink 2:32 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Relying on Hitchens on matters of evidence (& limits of it) is no different from relying on a random flight attendant for fixing a rocket.https://twitter.com/CollinMaessen/status/923172172935454720   Permalink 2:51 PM – 26 Oct 2017

@RonPaulInstitut US Allows Saudi Arabia To Plant Wahhabi Seed In Raqqa Rubble http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/october/26/us-allows-saudi-arabia-to-plant-wahhabi-seed-in-raqqa-rubble/   Permalink 1:49 PM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Twitter involuntarily helped Donaldo get elected. This is just to appease the conspirationistas.https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/923580101870145536   Permalink 9:08 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Balls of Two Colors https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoColorBalls.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0bxggxgtev”>  pic.twitter.com/0bxggxgtev Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 7:07 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Added to the Logic of Risk Taking: https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ezaD1fqHcg”>  pic.twitter.com/ezaD1fqHcg Permalink 7:07 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Some only find expression as part of mob shaming, when SAFE to do so, & in the bargain, think that they are displaying virtue. Not virtue. Permalink 6:13 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb A modern novel for the Byzantine Ambassador representing the Ottomans as continuation @byzantinepower pic.twitter.com/RRvSChcnFA Permalink 4:02 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Great move. The UN is a machine made to serve its bureaucrats & the journo monoculture.https://twitter.com/VP/status/923323794671927296   Permalink 2:10 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Isocrates Silver Rule: Treat weaker states the way you would like stronger states to treat you. Apply to Calalunya. #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/sxoLRcecBr Permalink 1:32 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule.https://twitter.com/psychoschmitt/status/923304892864909312   Permalink 5:04 PM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Rough Volatility Process (using a Voltera roughness coefficient) pic.twitter.com/640gGEu8cT Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Not moral to tell the Catalans whether they shd be independent, unless you let them decide on your own sovereignty #skininthegame #symmetry Permalink 10:36 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@JulianAssange Democrats spent the last 11 months building a neo-mccarthyite monster. The GOP has now saddled it to run them down. Entirely predictable. Permalink 9:27 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@euronewsfr Happening contre le #glyphosate à Bruxelles #nocomment pic.twitter.com/idaBDxzfT7 Permalink 7:25 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Scholarships open for Real World Risk Certificate Nov 13-17 http://realworldrisk.com/pictorial_view_of_the_program_by_dhaval   Note that we are 100% uncensored. No thought police. Permalink 7:16 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@alwyn_lau Thanks to @twilliamok for treating me to the best squid ink pasta in Spore! @nntaleb will probably love it too pic.twitter.com/COcsfkqKAE Permalink 6:13 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@garyruskin #Monsanto Faces Blowback Over Cancer Cover-Up http://bit.ly/2i2dA5a   Via @philipbethge @DerSPIEGEL #MonsantoPapers #glyphosate Permalink 5:56 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@SimonDeDeo I’ve written before on the bad stats in election prediction; pleased to see this new preprint from @nntaleb https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.06351   Permalink 4:43 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@charles_dandolo Voilà qui devrait intéresser @nntalebhttps://lesbelleslettresblog.com/2017/10/24/le-monde-syriaque-une-histoire-meconnue-dans-un-ouvrage-a-nul-autre-pareil/   Permalink 2:15 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability à la Tristram Shandy #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/vxoKMPLzkW Permalink 7:35 AM – 20 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Given the probability, Find the sample space https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/SameSexProblem.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZYCsBPUWCj”>  pic.twitter.com/ZYCsBPUWCj Permalink 2:29 PM – 19 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Rothschild, @davmicrot, unlike @AlanDersh is rather clueless about his own profession: election forecastinghttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/919188024457560069   Permalink 2:41 AM – 19 Oct 2017

@ShipSystem This is the full interview (22min, youtube) https://youtu.be/C49cf9PPJfg   Absolutely worth it Permalink 8:39 AM – 18 Oct 2017

@AlanDersh My commitment to free speech doesn’t depend on who is president.https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/920635614898393093   Permalink 7:48 AM – 18 Oct 2017

@AStratelates That’s why we should follow the @nntaleb method of finding psychological properties described by the ancients that are validated by moderns.https://twitter.com/AStratelates/status/920491312587202561   Permalink 8:27 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@nntaleb One can write books on options & pass for “expert” w/o realizing pple don’t hold positions for 8 y; they change daily. BS vendor.https://twitter.com/Framework_Erik/status/905094892220801024   Permalink 5:45 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Arabic, Aramaic/Hebr. shd have noticed there is NO aleph (always separate); only resembrance is to Aram. Shin => Russian Шhttps://twitter.com/stephenniem/status/919897479356862464   Permalink 3:16 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@naderamin The issue is that it’s not ok to say that North Africans look “black” Permalink 2:48 PM – 16 Oct 2017

@mikeharrisNY This is worth watching. @nntaleb reveals how famous traders can be destroyed in a single day.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-10-16/nassim-taleb-on-his-black-monday-positions-video   Permalink 1:58 PM – 16 Oct 2017

@NennaAltiora Meds r useful 4 nordic supremacists to either claim or use as tokens if they come from the wrong side of the Med,replaceable by any ‘ethnic’ Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@babolix Getting echoes of @nntaleb ‘s spat with historians from John Grays latest column in the New Statesman: https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2017/10/forgetfulness-dangers-modern-culture-wages-war-its-own-past   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/bd6j6tFD3r”>  pic.twitter.com/bd6j6tFD3r Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@BloombergTV The Black Monday crash was 30 years ago this week. “Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb recounts the experience https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-10-16/black-monday-at-30-wall-street-remembers-the-1987-stock-market-crash?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DKvvA1x1kc”>  pic.twitter.com/DKvvA1x1kc Permalink 7:16 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@GeorgeJNasr …Levantines, Semites, Africans… We all still exist in spite pseudo historians in the West . kudos2 Nassim 4giving us back our voice Permalink 5:42 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb For details, this is what Prof Beard did not like. Will her mob harrass Medium now?https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:23 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Dear Prof. Beard, I am aware of your attempts (direct & via an overactive mob) at constraining my rights of expression. The answer is no. Permalink 2:52 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 4) Saw BS accounts of Lebanese war from journos talking to other journos at a bar in Beirut now into history books.https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd   Permalink 7:38 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 3) => fraudsters like a low-IQ Swede who read books abt Levant determining what MY ethno-national identity shd be.https://twitter.com/bjoernstritzel/status/895269115165892608   Permalink 7:29 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 2) The mechanism is historian cite historian cite historian, with a weird chain, as Indians say Salma told Sabrina. All over hist of wars. Permalink 7:17 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Just in case you want more example that historians are bullshitters.https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/919611139012644869   Permalink 7:10 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Querry: Is Ketchum involved in executing the “Let Nothing Go” program by Monsanto (which targeted me & failed)?https://www.rt.com/usa/386858-monsanto-hired-trolls-court/   Permalink 6:53 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@primalpoly Why can’t students stand free speech? They were raised to be frangible. We need #antifragile parenting & schools. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/14/opinion/sunday/millennials-freedom-fear.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1DlONhMSF8″>  pic.twitter.com/1DlONhMSF8 Permalink 6:13 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 1/ Many aggressive pseudolibs have smthg highly politically incorrect hidden in them. -Weinstein demeans women -Mary Beard is deeply racist Permalink 5:37 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Fixed typo, shd be >=71 not >1 Tightened equation pic.twitter.com/Wij05N1Iqc Permalink 4:52 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An inequality with integrals and constraints https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/InequalityWithIntegrals.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qGuLtMrkkd”>  pic.twitter.com/qGuLtMrkkd Permalink 3:16 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb So stage works best when it is set by design to be v. different from life. Not, like Hollywood, trying to make life an imitation of itself. Permalink 9:50 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Theater works best when actors wear masks, signifying the actor’s idiosyncracies are supplanted by those of the character. Permalink 9:12 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Now is CNN aware that misogynist Michael Weiss violates the moral and ethical rules that CNN itself claims having? Permalink 8:48 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb So not only do actors not look like other citizens, they don’t behave like other citizens & movies misrepresent lives of citizens. All fake! Permalink 8:43 AM – 15 Oct 2017

A bit technical, but the paper on measure of concentration under fat tails…

A bit technical, but the paper on measure of concentration under fat tails –just finished — also mentions Pinker’s mistakes in “The Better Angel”, but dismissing Pinker’s thesis and conclusions from microscopic sample for fat tails doesn’t require more than one single sentence. We had to add two theorems so people don’t counter us with the use of unrigorous arguments and “opinions” a la Pinker & journalistic social scientists.

On the Biases and Variability in the Estimation of Concentration Using Bracketed Quantile…In fat-tailed domains, sample measures of top centile contributions to the total concentration are biased, unstable estimators extremely sensitive to sample …

via A bit technical, but the paper on measure of… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Four Points Beginner Risk Managers Should Learn from Jeff Holman’s Mistakes in the Discussion of Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb :: SSRN

Four Points Beginner Risk Managers Should Learn from Jeff Holman’s Mistakes in the Discussion of Antifragile

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
New York University; Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne – Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne (CES)
December 16, 2013

Using Jeff Holman’s comments in Quantitative Finance to illustrate 4 critical errors students should learn to avoid: 1) Mistaking tails (4th moment) for volatility (2nd moment), 2) Missing Jensen’s Inequality, 3) Analyzing the hedging wihout the underlying, 4) The necessity of a numeraire in finance.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 5

via Four Points Beginner Risk Managers Should Learn from Jeff Holman’s Mistakes in the Discussion of Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb :: SSRN.

Mathematical Definition, Mapping, and Detection of (Anti)Fragility by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Raphael Douady :: SSRN

We provide a mathematical definition of fragility and antifragility as negative or positive sensitivity to a semi-measure of dispersion and volatility (a variant of negative or positive “vega”) and examine the link to nonlinear effects. We integrate model error (and biases) into the fragile or antifragile context. Unlike risk, which is linked to psychological notions such as subjective preferences (hence cannot apply to a coffee cup) we offer a measure that is universal and concerns any object that has a probability distribution (whether such distribution is known or, critically, unknown).

We propose a detection of fragility, robustness, and antifragility using a single “fast-and-frugal”, model-free, probability free heuristic that also picks up exposure to model error. The heuristic lends itself to immediate implementation, and uncovers hidden risks related to company size, forecasting problems, and bank tail exposures (it explains the forecasting biases). While simple to implement, it outperforms stress testing and other such methods such as Value-at-Risk.

via Mathematical Definition, Mapping, and Detection of (Anti)Fragility by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Raphael Douady :: SSRN.

On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research | SSRN


On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

NYU-Poly; Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne – Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne (CES)

Philip E. Tetlock

University of California, Berkeley – Organizational Behavior & Industrial Relations Group; University of Pennsylvania – Management Department

June 25, 2013


There are serious differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yes/no type of payoff, the “binaries”, and those that have varying payoffs, which we call the “vanilla”. Real world exposures tend to belong to the vanilla category, and are poorly captured by binaries. Vanilla exposures are sensitive to Black Swan effects, model errors, and prediction problems, while the binaries are largely immune to them. The binaries are mathematically tractable, while the vanilla are much less so. Hedging vanilla exposures with binary bets can be disastrous — and because of the human tendency to engage in attribute substitution when confronted by difficult questions, decision-makers and researchers often confuse the vanilla for the binary.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 7

Keywords: Predictions, Risk, Decision, Judgment and Decision Making, Fat Tails

working papers series

via On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Philip E. Tetlock :: SSRN.