Tag Archives: Monsanto

Murray, Psychology, Quillette, Jesuits, Monsanto, Peterson, Harris, Silver, IQ Eugenics, Wahabis, Tulsi, Lehmann | Twitter

@nntaleb Nordic supremacy or North Atlantic supremacy (i.e. Northen Europe). Not Western. They don’t have monopoly of the “West”. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1160600695072010241   Permalink 3:21 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Note: I do not disrespect psychologists because I don’t know their works. It is precisely BECAUSE I read their crap. Between 2002 and 2005½ I read >200 psychology books and took notes. (Here 3 books by Pinker @sapinker who claims I didn’t read his junk) pic.twitter.com/EH1VNTZgU4 Permalink 3:18 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t that the Quillette pple are very, very incompetent. The problem is that the fans and followers are also very, very stupid. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160558238309462016   Permalink 7:35 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many claims are so viciously false… Babylonians, Chinese, and Indians had explicit logical systems. pic.twitter.com/68WMKDjOzz Permalink 5:52 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb عيد مبارك Permalink 5:40 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I will definitely pay @joelwatsonfish to nitpick my manuscripts for mistakes (fellow has been trying to take revenge for Quillette). Payoff is yuuge if 1 in 10 of his mistakes turns out to actually be mistake. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   https://twitter.com/joelwatsonfish/status/1159941673591459841   Permalink 5:25 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Eid Mubarak to all. Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire. Constantinople continued the Roman empire. Same usurpation with the EU. https://twitter.com/byzbastard/status/1160273117337587713?s=21   Permalink 2:12 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Whether the list was drawn by geography or ethnity, 15-18 mistakes. Murray is as ignorant in the humanities as he is in statistics. Permalink 2:04 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My father once told me: “Never antagonize Jesuits; their erudition is so wide and so deep they know things you’ll never suspect they know.” Permalink 11:42 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb More mistakes (total 18): Zeno of Elea was from Campania, S. of Naples. I am embarrassed I did not detect it at first reading. Permalink 11:30 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Further, a classical Greek would be furious to become part of this “West” to give a pedigree to Mountebank Murray’s ancestors & justify their “genetics” theories. Greeks were Meds, first and last and closer to Persia/Mesopotamia where the action was. Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Averroes, like Maimonides was born in Cordoba. Try to call him “Spanish”, Westerner! Some elementary mistakes anyone with intellect would detect: Philo Judaeus ‘The Jew” would be… Greek? Permalink 11:17 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I debated Murrat and noted that for a “historian” he was woefully lacking in erudition. His definition of the “West” = whatever became successful. He didn’t read r Greek & misunderstood Herodotus. Was told to take it easy on him bec. “libertarian” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079549079099768832?s=20   Permalink 11:00 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mountebank race monger Charles Murray @charlesmurray has a list of “Human Accomplishments” by “Westerners” He has 15 mistakes on a single page! Tertullian was Berber Saadia was Bagdadi/Egyptian AlKindi was Arabian Poseidonius was Syrian Mani was Persian Porphyrius Phoenician pic.twitter.com/rSisK6SeQ4 Permalink 10:49 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I prefer the company of people who make me smile to those who make me laugh. Permalink 9:12 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK. Conspiracy perhaps. But never never underestimate incompetence. Permalink 7:14 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Never assume conspiracy when the vastly more obvious explanation should be incompetence. https://twitter.com/BrittPettibone/status/1160182637862014976   Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The “Harvard Prof” has, statistically, < 25% chance of being right (less since Harvard profs higher % chronically wrong). A practice that survived millennia across populations that themselves survived has >.999 of being safe. Nature is robust statistically. #Lindy #Antifragile https://twitter.com/neorevolt/status/1160163806451916807   Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@Monsantobuster Quillette promotes “IQ-denial=science denial”, “refusal of scientific racism=refusal of science”. Like Monsanto w/glyphosate=science Claire Lehman herself said her mission is to defend inherited genetic differences in intelligence all the while denying they are into RACISM. pic.twitter.com/IcwDrMb9n4 Permalink 3:23 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People loooooove the idea of BS busting. Until they find out that they are the ones being busted. Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie I’m super excited about the results in this paper – they solved a problem that drew me into finance in the late 1990s. Can’t wait to play around the results over the next few weeks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1159545366330642434   Permalink 12:36 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Posted on ArXiv the paper on tail option pricing & shopping for a journal. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.02347   6th Journal pub in 2019! PS- Peer-review of technical work is often necessary but never sufficient (can be a cover for psych BS). It is not necessary if the proof is in the doc. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8Cm0Bqf8MI”>  pic.twitter.com/8Cm0Bqf8MI Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. ” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s campaign against U.S. Right to Know: key themes and documents via @USRightToKnow https://usrtk.org/our-investigations/monsanto-usrtk-foia/   Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@NonMeek “Monsanto paid Google to promote search results for “Monsanto Glyphosate Carey Gillam” that criticized her work.” This is disturbing. Permalink 5:51 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Revealed: how Monsanto’s ‘intelligence center’ targeted journalists and activists [SUCH AS YOURS TRULY] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/07/monsanto-fusion-center-journalists-roundup-neil-young?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 5:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@Yazanator Joe Norman is doing amazing work with Nassim Taleb exposing the racist @Quillette agenda of fraudulent IQ superiority in different races and eugenics. Give the guy a follow, he also talks a lot about Complexity Science which is interesting. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1159412318775730178   Permalink 4:23 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PDF is (and will remain) freely available, @xtsop. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   https://twitter.com/xtsop/status/1159416035541487616   Permalink 4:05 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I myself lie about my age. For 20 years I have been using 1924 as a birthdate with journalists, people who don’t know how to mind their own business, and on social media. I shd be a centenarian before finishing the 2nd Technical Volume. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1159074479194066944   Permalink 7:38 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Connecting the INCERTO to various research traditions pic.twitter.com/NTlUSEn9pj Permalink 4:00 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What I found disgusting about Peterson is that he made yuuuge $$$ from charity from kids who made much much less than he did. Like TV evangelists of the old days. Then I blocked him. Is Claire “Lehman Brothers” still shouting that she is not into a neoNazi eugenics agenda? https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1159214975887519746   Permalink 2:59 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@GuillPaquet You might be stacking sats but we at @BullBitcoin_ are stacking @nntaleb’s #Incerto Head of investments : @francispouliot_ pic.twitter.com/eNtXSUG4c6 Permalink 2:13 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I apologize. It was the Swiss. Permalink 10:58 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila, the Germans like combative rigor vs BS. https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/ist-der-intelligenzquotient-ein-pseudowissenschaftlicher-schwindel-nassim-taleb-geht-auf-konfrontation-mit-steven-pinker-und-anderen-helden-des-dark-web-ld.1450747?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=Twitter   Permalink 9:42 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Don’t read; reread. https://twitter.com/FlowPandito/status/1159039169211043843   Permalink 5:54 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaign against yours truly (1500 letters to the university plus all manner of negative comments on social media). https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1159067331315871744   Permalink 4:49 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@pauld198 that was a big mistake – you should have followed NNT’s advice ” don’t talk science with non-scientists” Permalink 10:41 PM – 6 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In my book Dynamic Hedging I show arbitrage bounds for correlations, a tutorial. We knew correlations were not transitive but the bounds were arbitrages. pic.twitter.com/ag59oBjRVs Permalink 11:17 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Terry Tao has a nice (but very technical write-up) on the transitivity of correlation. https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2014/06/05/when-is-correlation-transitive/   Permalink 11:13 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ. Here is another statistical error by IQ-Eugenists. Show the magnitude of the error (bounds on correlation) pic.twitter.com/uocognaol7 Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb RWRI has evolved into a scalable BS busting operation. All you need to do in life and business is spot BS; the rest takes care of itself. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1158007933717794818   Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another example of why you cannot use statistical formulas without knowing probability. Majority of neuroscience papers miscalculate significance. pic.twitter.com/hJ0F9aoA5Y Permalink 7:59 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s … https://youtu.be/k_lYeNuBTE8   via @YouTube Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My IQ piece: “To do well in life one needs to think independently. And one has to be a lunatic (or a psychologist) to believe that a standardized test will reveal independent thinking.” Edgar Morin (born Nahum) is a smart fellow. https://twitter.com/edgarmorinparis/status/1157958405878951936   Permalink 6:18 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@DaveGulimlim “My idea of the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.” Permalink 11:58 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I’ve never had a problem with people who disagree with me, contradict me or find mistakes. I just cannnnnnnnnnnot take BS. Yuuuuge allergy to BS. https://twitter.com/bmiloy/status/1157769951412801536   Permalink 3:44 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac). http://bethmardutho.org/mc/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um”>  pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac). http://bethmardutho.org/mc/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um”>  pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You know charlatan Sam Harris is lying because superstitious Eastern Mediterraneans never pass the salt (I am aggressively superstitious). Plus he offered to “bury the hatchet” and wrote this when I told him to f*** off. Permalink 8:01 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@sean_a_mcclure pic.twitter.com/TFUTbC2szX Permalink 7:35 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I need to buy mosquito repellent spray; but I am naturally a repellent to IYIs. They feel they are choking in my presence as I produced fumes only they can detect. 3 minutes and they are gone. Just consider the reaction of BSvendor Sam Harris pic.twitter.com/RBLj8Rryjy Permalink 6:46 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@VergilDen If Taleb calls you out on Twitter, best to meet with him privately to understand his position, lest you create a record on Twitter of your ignorance. Taleb knows the position of his opponents better than his opponents. Permalink 6:34 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those in interested in my fight with Nate Silver, a sequel –except that it got more technical. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157399736980295680   Permalink 3:57 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The story with Nate Silver has another episode. Aubrey Clayton wrote to the journal in defense of Silver claiming flaws with my election paper. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.01576   And I respond in the journal. https://www.academia.edu/39998351/All_Roads_Lead_to_Quantitative_Finance_Response_to_Clayton_   Permalink 2:16 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb We stopped responding when Lehman used the Blank Slate which is a straw man (almost noboby believes in the Blank Slate). Quillette’s followers might be as stupid as the editors (they are) & cheered; but it is the defense by Lehman that confirmed the sinister racial agenda! pic.twitter.com/rtBVWCPF2l Permalink 1:40 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Geneticists (this smart fellow) seem on same side of the IQ debate. But they miss a potent functional argument x-not- f(x). IQ could be as heritable as height. But the function of IQ, f(x), performance, is 1 correlation^2 removed (& is small). Yuuge! https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1155065639624695808?s=20   Permalink 1:29 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@financequant Trees protected against wind tend to fall over prematurely. Thus, trees gain from such disorder and stress. We need a good name for this. Anti-fragile, perhaps? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1157351337639710721   Permalink 11:12 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Hell is to care about it. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1157150794099019778   Permalink 10:06 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Correction: maximum .12 of the Variance according to THEIR OWN research (the heritability metric, Falconer’s “h-square” is hard to map to standard variance). For me, because of adjustments, still <.02 Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #goldfinger #universalexports #cliffhanger pic.twitter.com/uiUO7UElzo Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Today I received the royalty statement of “Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You” (it is a book about uncertainty and the role of luck) and remembered when Nassim visited us at INSEAD to help us promote the book. It is ten years since then and we all look so young. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/TPQtAmzfQ1 Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@normonics What this says is that on the most charitable read, the VAST MAJORITY of the phenomena in question are left unexplained, while the narratives being spun would have you believe we have a clear picture as to what is going on with “intelligence” and “heritability of intelligence” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157245410303447040   Permalink 5:05 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The IQ Eugenics “debate” is over, using psych’s own results. Best correlation psychs report IQ-performance (milit)=.5 (explains 25% of variance w/o my own adjustments). Heritability of IQ scores, again 25% of var. So for THEM genetics explains .06 of variance in BEST. for me:<.02 https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1157206500135317504   Permalink 4:03 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Food debasement (identical to currencies) Non-artisanal corporations w/MBA managers start substituting products progressively that imperceptibly worsen the product, until blowup. You start w/lemonade, then sell what passes for lemonade. Same as bankers hiding risk for a bonus. Permalink 3:44 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@RaniaKhalek The hostility on display from the anchor in this interview shows that they hate Tulsi Gabbard no matter what she says, and they hate her for her foreign policy views that antagonize against war https://twitter.com/msnbc/status/1157016332828925952   Permalink 2:34 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I mean sunflower oil not corn oil in France pic.twitter.com/3VU5sRMqxi Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that, except for sushi bars, one cannot eat out without inspecting the kitchen. Even “olive oil” is often debased, like a currency, with seed oil. We need a “seed oil detector” very badly. Permalink 2:02 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just came back from East Med where one can escape seed oil. Avoiding France: + France: heavily marketing corn oil as “healthy” solution. Now invading French cooking replacing butter/lard. Air France’s olive oil is 66% corn oil! + Belgium: Fries no longer w/tallow, but seed oil. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157086891633758209   Permalink 1:52 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “If you want people to buy a book, tell them it is overrated”. Bed of Procrustes pic.twitter.com/3DgvC088M5 Permalink 5:11 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@john_santin Just reading the book now, so let’s see if I’ve got this right . . . Fragile = Complaining about enemies Robust = Not having enemies Antifragile = Having enemies that complain about you Did I get it? What am I missing if not? Permalink 5:01 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant The MSM is troubled. CNN averages an audience of ~700K. This number is beaten by a fair number #youtube accounts (I’m talking about those with serious content.) which are produced by tiny staffs. There are over 2M people paying to support content providers on Patreon. 1/2 Permalink 4:12 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant If the Democrats put up Tulsi Gabbard for president they would win the White House. I would certainly vote for her. Alas, they will put up someone like Warren or, much worse, Sanders and commit political suicide. Forcing me again to vote for some third party candidate again. Permalink 1:41 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We were all lied to. We were told that Saddam had WMD, was working w/ Al Qaeda & that this posed a threat to the American people. But not only have we not gone after Al Qaeda, they are stronger than they were on 9/11 #TULSI2020 #DemDebate http://tulsi.to/stand-with-tulsi   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/XrYhNbt85i”>  pic.twitter.com/XrYhNbt85i Permalink 12:18 AM – 1 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words if as @stuartjrichie claims IQ tests correlate at .8, you have a quite large uncertainty about your own IQ hence you should propagate to the performance. The overall correlation is not unconditional. Permalink 9:32 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So psychologist @stuartjrichie writes a book on IQ. In it he reveals that your own IQ tests correlate at .8— every time you take the test. He didn’t realize the need to discount accordingly correlations IQ-performance by devastating amounts. Psychology is astrology. Permalink 8:57 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@RandPaul I’m headed to the floor soon to speak on this budget “deal.” You would think in an era of renewed trillion-dollar budgets, in an era of $22 trillion debts, you would think SOMEONE in this body or in this town would make a deal to CUT spending. Watch here: https://www.c-span.org/congress/?chamber=senate   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb One lesson to everyone about #Antifragile and not just to “racemonger Claire” @clairlemon: Never claim to be antifragile and play victim. Never. Gabish? https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156322427212722176   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@CliffordAsness I’m in the minority I think, but out of so much great work I think this is one of ⁦@nntaleb⁩’s most subtle and important. Perfectly describes the social media veto given to a tiny minority. And subtly one of biggest threats to liberty. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 5:27 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@hedging_reality Love the fact that @nntaleb clearly thinks for himself (understatement) and could not care any f*cking less wether one agrees with or approves of his positions, thoughts, or facts. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156411907982667778   Permalink 9:57 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fucking moron it’s not a fight: it’s watching her do self-flagellation, which gets painful once it starts eliciting commiseration. Permalink 8:50 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction.” – Nassim Taleb #progress Permalink 7:58 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@AaronAllisonCPA Celebrating my birthday with a little present to myself… Incerto, deluxe edition. Beautiful. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RhFINguYme Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fundamental Risk Asymmetry: “No that’s too risky” & “I don’t know” are effectively the same statement. (see #Antifragile). Why? Because if I don’t know whether the plane/the food/the technology is safe or not, I don’t ride in it. pic.twitter.com/XSyMGkWE54 Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb She is so clueless and stressed out you need to take it easy on her. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1156232905192026112   Permalink 9:30 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster People who still have doubt that @clairlemon is into what Feynman calls “cargo cult”, the name for “scientism”. Prof Taleb is right you need to go to school finish your degrees and study something. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156164287595012102   Permalink 8:59 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #fightthefed #goldfinger pic.twitter.com/9al0XGT1zP Permalink 6:03 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/ACCapitalist/status/1155943171374768128   Permalink 4:38 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Heraklius wasted energy on the Persians his victory was Pyrrhic. It weakened him. https://twitter.com/rcssmedasmith/status/1156130132953665537   Permalink 2:19 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At least two Roman emperors were either killed or captured by the Persians on that 700 year long Persian war. Who is the second? https://twitter.com/manimanavi/status/1156125697078943744   Permalink 2:04 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At the request on Quillette followers I took an IQ test. Guess my score: Permalink 1:00 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Not counting Cyrus’ invasion of Babylon and the Levant: he defeated the Babylonians freed the Jews and brought them back home. Permalink 12:51 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The Iranian waged a 800 year war ag Romans. The Iranian frontier bankrupted Byzantium and led to the Arab invasion. Same with the Ottomans. Border stayed firm. The mistake everyone makes is to underestimate how stubborn Persia is https://twitter.com/daniellmcadams/status/1155964776440184832   Permalink 12:22 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is turning out to be a farce. For @clairlemon correlation and estimation theory should be outside mathematics. Off to meet @spyrosmakrid in Athens to tawk about the M5 competition. https://twitter.com/monsantobuster/status/1156061528757587968   Permalink 9:42 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Turned out these ladies are in the business of ML for sending SP500 trading orders to a hedge fund either in Italy or in Texas. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155823345193107456   Permalink 7:26 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster What Claire Lehman, dropout from a Masters in Forensic Psychology calls “garbled nonsense” of Prof. Taleb is called in some circles: MATHEMATICS. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155955172448673793   Permalink 7:23 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Peterson a bon vivant? Part of the reason I blocked Peterson is because of his dullness. https://twitter.com/iozjrok/status/1155945094475739136   Permalink 7:11 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I block/mute people when I have no more use for them, nothing to learn from their arguments: Jordan Peterson, Impostor Molyneux, Mountebank Charles Murray, RacePromoter @clairlemon Not Sailer, Cochran, etc. Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Actually worse than I claimed. https://twitter.com/pzalloua/status/1155892239928832000   Permalink 10:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes the book I use for entropy https://books.google.com.lb/books/about/Elements_of_Information_Theory.html?id=VWq5GG6ycxMC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false   Permalink 9:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The owners of my favorite squid ink place, Kelly’s in Beirut, said they refuse to serve squid ink out of season. Other restaurants have it frozen from the winter. pic.twitter.com/wUs88OJ3Ty Permalink 9:14 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Meta-IQ test: you are given a sequence: 2, 4, 8, 16, … what is the next item? Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Taking 3 semesters off from teaching at NYU, officially to use freed time to “study Greek-Latin-Aramaic”. Will return in the Spring of 2021 with a course of informational entropy. Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@aldertrack In Greek κ will be pronounced like a G when it follows a ν, so Θα πάω στην Καλαμάτα is pronounced as Tha pao steen Galamata Permalink 7:13 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The discussion with Quillette and “Race Supremacy Claire” @clairlemon has ended with this. https://twitter.com/oceanclub/status/1155781059797278725   Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@UntergrundmannG Taleb has an updated post up at medium that takes care of most of this. You could take the time to weigh that in against this all over again. And if you come back here in a few days, I may have a post up about how this is a trivial misunderstanding of NNT’s case. Quantitatively. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Was getting hate tweets from Quillette clients at a rate of 1 per min, many using racial epithets to claim that @clairlemon is not into neoNazi agenda. Slowed down to about 10/min. Next, w/@normonics, preparing a formal technical paper (complex systems) abt the IQ fraud. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correctio: predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli. Permalink 6:29 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Ol_Wall There’s a difference between something having a genetic component and proving / publishing based on it. Of course there’s a genetic component to behaviour!! That doesn’t mean we can reliably know what that is – or should publish those shaky claims. Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Extrrrrrremely impressed with the sophistication of these machine-learning researchers in the Sunni enclave of Tripoli, Lebanon. They know the problems with distance metrics inside out. They are working to produce entropy maps. pic.twitter.com/l25u9k1C2v Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@EbbcMunich Our session last Tuesday was a great workshop based on Antifragile by @nntaleb For more info see https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6559842939617456128   Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So Quillette’s IQ “scientific” racism is more scientific than the Nazi’s racism/racial superiority theories? https://twitter.com/proclete/status/1155813118150422528?s=20   Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Is @clairlemon still denying that her Quillete project is into a neo-Nazi “scientific” racism (“race realism”) agenda? Permalink 5:08 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@scmarco69 Cf cet article technique de Taleb: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155735795325636609   qui démontre que toute utilisation du QI dans le monde réel est à peu près vouée à l’échec. Permalink 4:49 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Extrachelle Food of the Gods, literally. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155751198785449984   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hoyfVstWKq”>  pic.twitter.com/hoyfVstWKq Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Intelligence is WAY too important and essential for what it means to be human to cede to the low-dimensional Pinker-style quillette IQ pseudointellectuals Permalink 6:04 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@normonics Why is @nntaleb calling @Quillette promotion of race science via IQ a neo-nazi agenda? Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No. https://twitter.com/Jazzy_ggxx/status/1155534241372999680   Permalink 10:47 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb He is hired. His thread explains much of my position on IQ research. Add that 1) I don’t deny heritability of *something* in non-feedback linear environments, 2) Higher dimensions are not tractable (curse of dimensionality) & #Quilletteidiots don’t get it https://twitter.com/sean_a_mcclure/status/1155487369019232259?s=20   Permalink 10:32 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@HenryJOncology #skininthegame @nntaleb tells a more important issue: no one except #patients benefit from using hard endpoints that result in trial failure. Everyone else benefits with a positive result in USA. Perverse incentives to create bad trials with weak endpoints. @VincentRK https://twitter.com/HenryJOncology/status/1155525572271005697   Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@EricTopol He’s my new friend! Thanks @JpMikhaiel for your perceptive take, especially for bringing in @nntaleb’s important work. And kudos @kevinmd for hosting a site that gives medical students the chance to get their views out https://twitter.com/hipp0kratis/status/1155518666815000576   Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DaveGulimlim Reading Antifragile by @nntaleb tonight. I’m about to reach halfway and the insights are staggering. This might be one of the most influential books for me this year. “I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.” https://twitter.com/DaveGulimlim/status/1155485670019747840/photo/1 href=” http://pic.twitter.com/7MtEosIItd  pic.twitter.com/vjtmKyi3yb”> pic.twitter.com/7MtEosIItd pic.twitter.com/vjtmKyi3ybPermalink 7:35 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I have always fought those who accuse others Nazism & eugenics. So far I’ve made one single accusation of neo-Nazi agenda: @clairlemon & the broad @Quillette crowd, for their closet promotion of pseudoscientific ideas about IQ, race, etc., under cover of defense of free-speech. https://twitter.com/Ol_Wall/status/1155475727979970562   Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Perhaps before lecturing people about “understanding reality”, Ms. Lehmann should make some effort in getting schooling in elementary statistics. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155472268295725056?s=20   Permalink 6:48 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@ReadTrying The problem with Taleb isnt that he’s an asshole. He is an asshole. The problem with Taleb is that he’s an asshole and he’s right. Permalink 6:09 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap I’ve been getting nonstop from Quilette followers. pic.twitter.com/5js8w1xrooPermalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DA_Stockman Tulsi Gabbard’s Suit Against Google Is A Double Plus Good https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/tulsi-gabbards-suit-against-google-is-a-double-plus-good/   Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Answer @SamuelGWalters. For all x>0. Now the left side? pic.twitter.com/repUnkL7pRPermalink 3:57 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb How many fucking times do I have to repeat that I have public tutorial lectures on probability? https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww   https://twitter.com/raushan2020/status/1155425057663062016   Permalink 3:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Math Problem du jour: Can you make the right side tighter? https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1154611803323686913   Permalink 3:26 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I said Greek not just Orthodox because of a cluster of inherited Byzantine stuff: the architecture (the dome is Byzantine), the prayer (initial Greek prayer included prostration), etc. Permalink 2:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb To continue the thread. Lehman is a fraud, & not smart enough to be caught. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155404493867106304?s=20   Permalink 2:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Nationalists, falsely accused of racism, hold “all children are equal but each under obligation to give preference to their own” @Quilette’s full neo-Nazi approach: “these people are genetically inferior; let us find the science ( and fake defense of free speech) to back it up” Permalink 1:56 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb A nonvote for the official democrat will effectively be a half-vote for Trump. Gabish? Permalink 1:28 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those who doubt the Greek Orthodox origin of the female veil (Iranian style)… Church in Amioun. pic.twitter.com/M5LfM7mRlMPermalink 12:36 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb My speculation that there will be a growing closet Trump support in the far left is getting more and more confirmation. https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/1155225067644542976   Permalink 3:00 PM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes I know I am rude by calling IQ people imbeciles (which they are). But they are classifying entire populations as idiots. People who already have enough problems. I am going to upset the “Fake free-speech” @Quillette crowd & “Klueeeeless Claire” @clairlemon a bit more. Permalink 9:36 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb BTّW for those who want to see my thingy with IQ, here is the paper, heading towards the half a million readers. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Klueless Claire” Lehman, @clairlemon you are so kluuuuless abt Popper/falsification it’s not even funny. Statistical claims in psych are not testable in the Popperian sense, & if they are, can be easily falsified by showing the metric is uninformative. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155084999328014336?s=20   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Also impossible to teach charlatans that “handwaving” means exactly what THEY do for a living. @clairlemon should stop Quillette, and take a study sabbatical (5-10 years) to do some elementary statistics, data science, etc., before uttering such verbiage. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155078139585761281?s=20   Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Impossible to teach charlatans the very notion that SCIENCE=RIGOR, little else. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155078139585761281?s=20   Permalink 4:44 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@oskarth Spotted in Taiwan in traditional Chinese! Works for asymmetrical one arm overhead presses too. pic.twitter.com/m7G988cCVgPermalink 4:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Friends, any idea how to make @wolfram Mathematica data synchronous? One single missing date makes comparisons very hard. pic.twitter.com/3Zais8pSpAPermalink 4:14 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those into some math, here is why social scientists don’t seem to know what correlation means. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 3:53 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Finally submitted to journal my paper showing psychological research on forecasting is largely fiction. (Includes @Ptetlock’s superforekast not even mentioned in paper) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cWgl3ZJP9K”>  pic.twitter.com/cWgl3ZJP9K Permalink 3:46 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I am not discounting heredity. But the research extending it to such matters as “intelligence” is largely fraud. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155063096731480065?s=20   Permalink 3:37 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Behavioral genetics is largely an intellectual fraud. Resisting promoting them, @clairlemon, even if you like their message. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155043769370025984   Permalink 3:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@trishankkarthik First impressions on the @SS_strength seminar: There are a lot of similarities between @CoachRippetoe and @nntaleb: they both say what they like fearlessly, do not suffer BS gladly (can tell by passionate anger), and are funny as hell while delivering powerful truths Permalink 9:24 PM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Philological coincidences, 1 In French, crier is to shout, in English (primarily) to shed tears. In Lebanese, 3ayyet is to shout, in Egyptian 3ayyat is to shed tears. Permalink 3:50 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Lamma 7ada bi 2llak lbet beytak, bi2akkidlak inno hayda mush baytak. Permalink 3:40 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principal benefit of Mathematica, as @financequant figured out, is that everything is precisely defined. Mathematical papers often have shortcuts or fuzzy definitions (particularly when dealing with vectors and matrices); @Wolfram Mathematica has to be exact. Permalink 2:44 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We respond to Clayton’s comment on my paper in defense of “Klueless Nate” Silver. pic.twitter.com/RkLg6L31kz Permalink 1:23 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The problem is not babbling journalists. The problem is that the entire intelligentsia has been saying the same crap. Commentary on the events of the Trump presidency provide the best test of mental faculties. https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1154086058918916097   Permalink 4:13 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb James @drjamesdinic is figuring out something central. What do ALL elements of this list have in common? These are ULTRA MODERN, not #Lindy. Worse than sugar: seed oils touted as “healthy”(olive/avoc./cocon. oils are not seed oils). And seed oils are everywhere in restaurants. https://twitter.com/drjamesdinic/status/1154337958385917952   Permalink 3:59 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@CarstenBKK Here is @nntaleb et. al. take on climate change. I can’t phrase it any better: https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7nqiuU1S2i”>  pic.twitter.com/7nqiuU1S2i Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principle of revelation of preferences (#skininthegame) is what people do, where people go, how they vote with their feet, not what’s published some paper with pictures. https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1154460234842165249   Permalink 1:56 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@lhamtil Whenever people suggest my sector & industry analysis is tired, I refer them to this passage by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/YAiX3pywVn Permalink 1:18 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Breaking: Tulsi sues Google for interference and manipulation! https://www.tulsi2020.com/tulsi-vs-google?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=190725_bigtech   Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard 2/3 – #Google controls 88% of internet search in the US — giving it control over our access to information. Google’s arbitrary suspension of the account of a presidential candidate should be of concern to all Americans. http://tulsi.to/tulsi-vs-google   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard TULSI2020: In the hours following the 1st debate, while millions of Americans searched for info about Tulsi, Google suspended her search ad account w/o explanation. It is vital to our democracy that big tech companies can’t affect the outcome of elections http://tulsi.to/tulsi-vs-google   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@paulportesi Thread by @nntaleb: “1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who hasr a living. 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school pr []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1093163028739248129.html   Permalink 7:10 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Invent a probability distribution that’s neither thin nor fat tailed. [Jetlag in Northern Phoenicia] pic.twitter.com/7XMYmK1Pb1 Permalink 4:07 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) I asked Ridley for tail risk analysis for GMO crops. He showed a few statistically lame papers showing “benefits”, and some scientism. And if there is no tail risk analysis it’s because GMO peddlers do not even know what tail risk means. https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1154126020942991360?s=20   Permalink 3:11 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Drove to Ehden from the coast. Tallied the names of villages on the way. Not only there was NOT a single village with Arab name, but there were: +Balamand (Belmont, Crusader) +Rushdebbin (Roche des Pins, Crusader) +Kousba (my mother’s) (Cuspa, Roman) Stop the Arabist fraud. Permalink 2:57 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Boris Johnson’s position on GMOs/biotech which effectively centralize and delocalize crops (puts nature in the hands of technocorps) is opposite to his position on Brexit which effectively localist & against socioeconomic centralization (puts Britain in the hands of technocrats)! Permalink 2:50 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@davidsarac I am getting to appreciate how highly educated people are the most dangerous thing on the planet. In a same way how excess of order produces evil, too much exposure to academic environment produces retardation of mental faculties @normonics @nntaleb @GreenRupertRead https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1154126020942991360   Permalink 12:12 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@Petepicasso10 Intellectuals yet idiots like @nntaleb would say. https://twitter.com/Suffragentleman/status/1153727052601856003   Permalink 7:49 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ron Paul & @DanielLMcAdams are my filter in the middle of the noise. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1154101196921212930   Permalink 1:40 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correction: I meant I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than agree with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? Permalink 11:38 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is certain that Ms @RaniaKhalek has no notion of what a fallacy means. The problem isn’t convincing her & other intellectual rejects in her group, but making people with brains are aware of these fraudulent slogans thrown at them. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1152234669783560192?s=20   Permalink 9:34 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Started to ship https://amzn.to/2XLMaTF   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1142416150254575617   Permalink 6:57 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@ggreenwald It’s also bizarre to watch House Democrats constantly herald Mueller’s career as one of great “moral rectitude.” Does this little episode just not count at all? pic.twitter.com/fTenOKlgbi Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? https://twitter.com/DavidRedelingh2/status/1154003900879527936   Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mistakes: In Lebanese, l not el; 3arabiyyé not siyyara. But good effort. Permalink 2:03 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mathematica is addictive and makes math addictive. https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1153766126855307265   Permalink 2:01 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman’s discussion with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about sexism, racism and retrospective bigoteering in the U.S. Declaration of Independence https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/07/23/discussion-with-nassim-taleb-about-sexism-and-racism-in-the-declaration-of-independence/#.XTd6s5XxrMc.twitter   Permalink 2:24 PM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We are clearly winning. The geopolitical state can no longer control the language. Bottom up wins in the age of social media. https://twitter.com/ChristoChammas/status/1153683744403992579   Permalink 10:05 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If someone acts like a shill, odds are he/she is a shill. (Dan Gardner busted) https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1153475301063745536   Permalink 4:40 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb CNN, the designation “congresswoman of color” is itself racist. pic.twitter.com/TREH8dRRZt Permalink 7:23 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) Never trust a journalist unless she’s your mother. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1152195094398873602   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) Thomas “the Chin” Friedman… https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1152195094398873602   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Virtue is the difference between what you do in public and what you do in private. Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I finally got that Bolton doesn’t exist as an advisor; he is at best a negotiation tool. He is just someone who barks very loud and incoherently so Trump can make a deal, if possible. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1153390958798680065   Permalink 12:51 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Done with the paper on forecasting, debunking the BS by “Phil the rat” Tetlock @ptetlock. Addresses some problems with @robinhanson and his claims about prediction markets. https://www.academia.edu/38962327/On_the_Statistical_Differences_between_Binary_Forecasts_and_Real_World_Payoffs   Permalink 12:18 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #goldfinger pic.twitter.com/ZfNrAcQu7R Permalink 7:24 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You don’t need mathematics to be rigorous; you can achieve formalism w/legal documents, where everything is precisely defined. Contracts & codes from Theodosius to Cambaceres→elimination of VERBALISM from documents. I learned that w/financial term sheets. Everything is mapped. Permalink 6:19 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Verbalism, a general definition. Does it supercede all other “fallacies” in critical thinking made in intellectual discourse? pic.twitter.com/quMrzs9kji Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@jimmy_wales Is there a way to get back to the old twitter interface? Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “You may eventually forgive and befriend someone who harmed you, never someone who bored you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:11 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Pharma is better at invending diseases for its existing treatments, than treatments for existing diseases” Bed of Procrustes https://twitter.com/Firefly_fan/status/1153043992327675904   Permalink 1:49 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event? Wittgenstein’s Ruler https://youtu.be/k_lYeNuBTE8   Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You can only disagree with people who are wrong, not those who are “not even wrong”. When you engage a charlatan (as with @snowded for the above derivations) he represents your debunking his fallacies for a “disagreement”. Permalink 7:51 AM – 21 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:07 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Doesn’t look like your regular IT professional. At 73. https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1152240931015462914   Permalink 5:21 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@financequant Sigh… If it NEVER works then why? https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1152687931183816714   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This has been on for 5 years, @Adam_Bat https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww/videos   https://twitter.com/Adam_Bat/status/1152643920339308545   Permalink 11:22 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:10 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb God made mathematics so you can tell me where I am wrong; the fragility of a derivation is transparent for all to see. Formalism allows the slightest nonsense to show. Some econs/psychs produce obscure equations to hide nonsense. They get caught: you can debunk using math! Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, This is my precise definitions for Fragility, Robustness, & Antifragility. The paper is here. This will be part of the 2nd vol of the Technical Incerto (Includes #Lindy) called: “Fragility Risk and Convexity”. (link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0hhs/Fragility%20Taleb%20Douady%202012.pdf?dl=0  ) http://dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uVIugpXzen”>  pic.twitter.com/uVIugpXzen Permalink 5:14 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Science is not about authority, consensus, and verbalisms, but proofs and derivations. Permalink 3:42 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Snowden, I said it before: you are a handwaving bullshitter. Show us some mathematical formalism if you can or shut the fuck up. Permalink 3:37 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I meant squatting closer to your max: when you are in the lower position. Permalink 2:07 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It’s there. Just a small suggestion: perhaps you should read the book before lecktschuring its author. Permalink 1:21 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) This is exactly why academic tests select for those nerdy enough be motivated during the test; no translation to mental powers in real life. 2) @CoachRippetoe reports the same “panic” while deadlifting close to your max: you need to stand up, failure is no option. https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1138205473889558528   Permalink 12:02 PM – 19 Jul 2019

Wolfram, Thaler, Monsanto, Gabbard, Localism, SALARYPEOPLE, Acroparasite, RENT SEEKERS | Twitter

1) Never insult fallen entrepreneurs
2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game

— ThinkerView (@Thinker_View) May 1, 2019

@nntaleb Typos and explained the inequality pic.twitter.com/uMIqGjehWd Permalink 11:20 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb A familiar argument https://twitter.com/noamchomskyt/status/1128700073611792384   Permalink 10:10 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb QUESTION This friend of mine is writing a blurb for Stephen Wolfram. Wolfram is a genius but that’s the least uncommon of his attributes. Are there other successful living scientists who are so fully independent that they do everything on their own terms? Permalink 9:38 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb One possible approach pic.twitter.com/R5xZTiObNY Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR. Since my name is on it, I am obligated to solve. pic.twitter.com/EKNkppK3fO Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb NUDGE SINISTER: How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous Verbalism. A project that will end up putting Nudgevillain @R_Thaler in his place. Filling in the math progressively. pic.twitter.com/zhJcYOyrZj Permalink 5:16 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb Note that Fleishman Hillard boasts “balancing 80% of interactions on Twitter”, which includes …this feed. pic.twitter.com/aQjr7PkH4w Permalink 4:41 AM – 15 May 2019

@EnlivenmentNow See this thread for details on this clear attempt by French intelligence services to intimidate journalists revealing information about links between France and Saudi Arabia. Seems to follow on intelligence agreement between the 2 countries https://twitter.com/oliviertesquet/status/1128351519907176450   CC: @nntaleb Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 May 2019

@mikeharrisNY Another interview of @nntaleb that must become mandatory course material in business schools. I will write something based on it from past experience about friends that lost nearly everything in previous market turmoil periods while the #IYI look at longer-term charts. $SPX https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1128289415871258625   Permalink 12:55 PM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb It appears that the Nudgevillain Richard Thaler @r_thaler blocked @blackswanman. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1128296265178124289   Permalink 10:24 AM – 14 May 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @paulkrugman @R_Thaler #IYIs #expertproblem pic.twitter.com/VifnmTYDeg Permalink 6:49 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb INTERVIEW WITH ERIK SCHATZKER 1) Do not insult fallen entrepreneurs 2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game 3) The imperative of tail risk hedging 4) Make money at your job, not in the markets https://youtu.be/4OfnsOT1ys8   Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Fleishman Hillard is under French government investigation in the Monsanto Roundup affair for having a “hit list” of people to discredit and smear. I was on their US list. My response to them. If you work for a lobbying firm, get out. Your job is unethical. pic.twitter.com/KqPdokNfTJ Permalink 5:19 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Imagine if we locked up warmongers… This is why I am supporting @TulsiGabbard even if I disagree with here socio-economic orientation. Just via negativa: avoidance of war is of yuuuuuuuuuuge benefits. https://twitter.com/EricSchmittNYT/status/1128086354708107264   Permalink 5:11 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the comments. The intro to @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition is complete. pic.twitter.com/TTDthRXCTd Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 May 2019

@GeertNoels Roundup is harmful for the environment and for your stock price… #monsanto #Bayer #Roundup @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/XCkEYjLsh7 Permalink 3:46 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto lost another case. I would love the chance to tear apart their epidemiological claims. pic.twitter.com/1Dml305mLX Permalink 2:19 PM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Never complain about people, no matter how justified. Just drive them to complain about you. Permalink 1:33 PM – 13 May 2019

@financequant What can I say but that everyone needs to take this advice seriously. If it makes you uncomfortable or if you can’t seem to accept it, then you must consider that those feelings may arise precisely because you have exposed yourself to unacceptable levels of tail risk. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1127960959576940548   Permalink 1:19 PM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-05-09/taleb-says-fed-should-do-minimum-harm-and-expresses-his-concerns-about-deficits-video   Permalink 8:37 AM – 13 May 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-05-09/taleb-says-fed-should-do-minimum-harm-and-expresses-his-concerns-about-deficits-video   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @wef #Davos #IYIs ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cfv9JnxkLo”>  pic.twitter.com/Cfv9JnxkLo Permalink 6:54 AM – 13 May 2019

@spyrosmakrid Thanks Nassim for your great Introduction. The Special Issue of the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING devoted exclusively to the M4 Competition will be available in digital form in the middle of June and in printed form at the end of the summer. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1127912576543875072   Permalink 6:15 AM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Intro to @spyrosmakrid M4 competition pic.twitter.com/gdOzYzoCdO Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 May 2019

@MaxAbrahms The US has a history of escalating against adversaries based on pretenses that turned out false. Pay attention to allegations of Iranian belligerence that are short on detail & walked back. This is one of the most critical functions of media it won’t do. https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/12/middleeast/uae-cargo-ship-sabotage-intl/index.html   Permalink 2:41 AM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Plus add the ?000,000 dead foreigners… Yet nobody addressed the source of Wahabism that spread AFTER 2001 thanks to the US support across madrassahs. Or Obama’s support to AlQaeda in Syria. Etc., etc. https://twitter.com/johncatsjr/status/1127692084021010434   Permalink 3:00 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 10 (not 9) Permalink 2:46 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That IQ tests measure “intelligence”. They mostly measure 1) obedience, 2) the unintelligence of IQ psychologists/psychometricians. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 1:41 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That GMO (Genetic Modification) is “scientific”, that it is just “accelerated breeding”. It is scientism & not in the same class as breeding. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 8 + That Modern Portfolio Theory (Markowitz) is imperfect. It is not imperfect, it is wrong, in the sense that you are better off not using it than using it. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 May 2019

@john_f_hamer The opposite of a networker: a person who’s habitually nice to people who won’t be useful to him in the future. Permalink 7:11 AM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb If you need to post a screenshot to back-up your tweet (or aphorism), you’ve already lost the argument. Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb This makes sense! https://twitter.com/fareedzakaria/status/1126163836665511936   Permalink 4:20 PM – 11 May 2019

@jadabdala Heights of Canaan – Ehden under. Ampi, Chekka, Tripolis and the Mediterranean on the horizon. Bcharreh & Qodisha valley on my left. Arados on my right. Baal above. pic.twitter.com/eMPvWa09lt Permalink 8:22 AM – 11 May 2019

@nntaleb Ρωμιός εγώ γεννήθηκα, Ρωμιός θέμα να πεθάνω Permalink 5:12 AM – 11 May 2019

@nntaleb A rebirth of Hellenic identity among the North Syrian/North Lebanon “Rums” (My tribe). pic.twitter.com/HBTe3iGYxy Permalink 5:11 AM – 11 May 2019

@normonics All things considered, wild release GMO poses much vaster uncertainty and therefore risk than does increase of CO2 Not to trivialize the latter, just a reasonable assessment given the additional complexity when the released agents are novel and historyless living organisms Permalink 6:06 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb To explain LOCALISM: On August 6, 1806, the Holy Roman Empire was abolished. Goethe noted that day that the people staying in the same inn as him were far more interested in the quarrel between their coachman and the innkeeper than in its demise. #Lindy Permalink 1:13 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb 2-Napoleon wrote (dictated) 10-30 letters a day; he was maximally into micromanagement. While emperor, on the campaign before Austerlitz, he wrote to the governor of Genoa asking him to stop taking his mistress to the opera because of a prostitution record. Yet he did think big! Permalink 11:31 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb This is to express my warm support to @TulsiGabbard as a noble democratic candidate and the bestfor Peace. Only she has the guts to stand up against the sinister militaristic lobby! #Tulsi2020 #SALT2019 https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1125746099900141569   Permalink 10:16 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/ while Mandeville, Smith, and complexity theory have shown that a good system is one that, by scale transformation, turns individual vice, biases, and quirks into collective virtue. Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb What socialists, academics, neocons, and other idiots share is the belief that it is the intentions, and not so much the results, that matter. Permalink 7:52 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb The Book Jacket Description https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fjDBYfOvVT”>  pic.twitter.com/fjDBYfOvVT Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb J’ai été fiché par Fleishman Hillard. https://twitter.com/20hfrance2/status/1126555600501059584   Permalink 5:25 AM – 10 May 2019

@EconTalker My new animated video on how economists and journalists have distorted the evidence on growth and how it treats the poor and the middle class: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_i8Tq032JQ   Permalink 2:54 PM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb For every successful entrepreneur you hear about on TV, there are 999 failed one eating canned sardines for dinner. Permalink 10:05 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb The Marxisto-Leftophrasts IYIs have lived under the narrative that employees are weak pple exploited by employers. Now we have robots, some made by robots. Why do they complain about the absence of exploitation? Permalink 7:02 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 6) Socialists managed to drill in people’s heads the illusion that the money that pays for services is ultimately generated in Mars, that the industrial revolution was a British government project, & that … schoolteachers know anything about anything. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1126290004223750144   Permalink 6:09 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb Where did the money come from? Transfers from Mars? We need to find a cure for financial illiteracy. https://twitter.com/sailorupper/status/1126289023478136834   Permalink 5:57 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 5) Show me how a salaryperson can lose net money. Negative salary? https://twitter.com/CryptoPsyop/status/1126232433467301890   Permalink 4:43 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 4) With civil servants, what you see is what is there. With entrepreneurs, what you see is the subset of successful ones, not the entire cohort, which includes a huge majority of failures. Yet we need this risk-taking. Permalink 4:37 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 3) The CEO of the company is not the entrepreneur w/skin in the game, but often some acroparasite actor milking the system. Permalink 4:03 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 2) And remember that it is risk takers and the mechanism of risk-taking that pulled more than a billion people out of poverty, not the design of some NGOer, civil servant, or some other acroparasite on a steady salary. Gabish? Permalink 3:03 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb A short quiz in memory of Alexander Bogomolny @SvetlanaBogom13 pic.twitter.com/L3XCdurmq5 Permalink 2:46 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb If there were no entrepreneurs and risk takers … (I am getting idiots commenting on salaries without thinking in higher order terms.) Permalink 1:58 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb ATTENTION SALARYPEOPLE Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income. Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb. Permalink 1:31 PM – 8 May 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio #OceanX #allweather #riskparity #riskyparity pic.twitter.com/r7BZUNiWVY Permalink 12:09 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb You don’t show on your tax return the losses of others. [Should I lose patience with NYT-induced financial illiteracy? ] https://twitter.com/aledussaillant/status/1126182246459875330   Permalink 11:06 AM – 8 May 2019

@PaulMMCooper Breathtaking aerial photography of the Roman ruins of Baalbek in Lebanon, by @rami_rizk. pic.twitter.com/LarhOPXaaK Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb This is to show @spyrosmakrid How someone’s small miscalibration in probability translate into miscalibration in forecasting the corresponding deviation. Something Phil-the-Rat Tetlock @Ptetlock has been trying to hide. pic.twitter.com/TiMcN77qpk Permalink 6:00 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb Medicine is for the very ill, never the healthy. In #Antifragile, there is the assertion that there has been practically NOTHING made by humans to “improve” on nature or help with shortcuts that did not end up harming with UNSEEN side effects. #HiddenRisk https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1125725279090032640   Permalink 4:37 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb In Antifragile… https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1125647039365148672   Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb Getting close to finishing my paper for the very patient @spyrosmakrid showing why the “prediction” and “superforecaster” theories (@PTetlock-style) business is BS (but in polite words). https://www.academia.edu/38962327/On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/CNxSLCc0tI”>  pic.twitter.com/CNxSLCc0tI Permalink 3:48 AM – 7 May 2019

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb recommends buying six copies of this book, just in case you need to bribe someone https://www.amazon.com/Elements-Information-Theory-Telecommunications-Processing/dp/0471241954   Permalink 3:07 PM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb Today is my 14th and last lecktshur for 2019. Back next Feb. pic.twitter.com/aTUb9ksEpu Permalink 1:08 PM – 6 May 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic is yet again about #IQ for this I put the blame on @nntaleb, who sparked off my current “obsession” This strip was also inspired by @normonics and @paulportesi [defining intelligence, 1 of 2] For more visit http://www.offshorecomic.com   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SjgFWfuMFb”>  pic.twitter.com/SjgFWfuMFb Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 May 2019

@GregorySMcMurry People used to accept this up until recently https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1125301469488517120   Permalink 7:22 AM – 6 May 2019

@antifragi7 If you wanna learn more about this idiotic fragilista read @nntaleb ‘s Antifragile. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile   https://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1125370104521330688   Permalink 6:47 AM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb If you let people think that you’re a total a**hole, you’ll never have to be one. Permalink 4:14 AM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb BYZANTINE REAL HISTORY: Debunking Myths about the Arab Invasion of the Levant https://www.facebook.com/ByzantineRealHistory/posts/835964876782564?__xts__[0]=68.ARCSTgFrFlpkQnvfzyoA6NGRetEXm_bbubp_ihAOyIpmLEBW_k3Y2OqmIXhLckOhy6gvNxJUEqtX7skC75VjIs6fsTsDSjShkxtkvWzn4BEg8kSAAzXs_oYORlvY9GdBNZQnjxQP-9Imzm5faVzED474SEjhpkgltYPhRom4_rkHctURNVWJg8KAo-xERehaaZrZfisnzirgxdKLE4nzXpKLEDPa0ALUeyJQItAXJVGF19PduJ7hIsmj9rR4cYbg89KpIHi7IC2h6qOIHbFQbp9P49w1GN04ukvSIjMIBSEmNGNIiPq-GKZ_MfVSlGOiLb7shVuiEtR4UyaVWCuKA0o&__tn__=-R   Permalink 2:55 PM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/horrdorr/status/1125116447305265152   Permalink 12:22 PM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/ It is much easier for a criminal to fake being an honest person than for an honest person to fake being a criminal. Likewise it is easier for a fat-tailed distribution to fake being thin tailed than for a thin-tailed distributions to fake being fat tailed. Permalink 10:29 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb EXCELLENT QUESTION FROM A READER pic.twitter.com/lECfkVeABM Permalink 10:25 AM – 5 May 2019

@_benoux_ Nice! Κρατοπαράσιτον. Κρατοπαρασιτικόν. Κρατοπαρασιτικός. Looks so natural it feels it already exists in greek. Permalink 9:55 AM – 5 May 2019

@AnarContrarian “The story of the nation-State is that of the concentration and magnification of human errors. Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility” -@nntaleb Permalink 9:37 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Fundamentally, the word shd be about parasites without #skininthegame Permalink 8:53 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Which is why tipping is dynamic not static! https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1124765420106473472   Permalink 8:39 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb OK, July 30: Incerto Box Set https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_H6VZCb19XZK37   via @amazon Permalink 8:18 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Parasitism is the clearest @JoshHochschild. We can alter it or find synonyms. We need @_benoux_’s Hellenicism. Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 May 2019

@bpaf was thinking about that passage the other day as it extends in the prophetic footnote cfr https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114184010551496705   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Y10aJgH6Cm”>  pic.twitter.com/Y10aJgH6Cm Permalink 5:24 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb We need a Graeco-Roman sounding name for “rent seeking” and “rent seekers”; something that one does not have to translate into French as “rent seeking” can be ambiguous. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1014119297835257857?s=21   Permalink 4:51 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/2 Being hated by the rentseeker is equivalent to being loved by the righteous. (A confirmation (here @WGoetzmann) I am doing something right.) pic.twitter.com/xukzi93vi0 Permalink 12:49 PM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb Actually, I can be mean. Very mean. With some. But angry? Rarely. 1/2 https://twitter.com/ryanstephens/status/1124740868488015874   Permalink 12:44 PM – 4 May 2019

@jstarklefkowitz “In the classroom the ruler measures the table in the real world the table measures the ruler”. Sans skin in the game, critics opinions only tell you about the critics themselves never about the thing they are criticizing. Permalink 11:50 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb NAPOLEON THREAD, seen w/modern eyes. 1-Napoleon & the English talked past one another. Napoleon liked glory, administration, image, ideas, top-down nations, top-down code. The English liked commerce & wd have left him alone if he didn’t heavily tax their good for pass through. pic.twitter.com/kYHE6ybzrS Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb 3) Easy to deconvert someone from State worship via Martin Luther’s argument that “God & clergy are different “tings””. Show them that bureaucrats-cronies-nudgeboys-virtue merchants & “State” aren’t the same “ting” & “the State is among us”. Keep the State distributed! #Localism pic.twitter.com/lmgVMXYQY7 Permalink 5:59 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t inequality, it’s RENT SEEKERS without skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb RENT SEEKERS We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers. Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it. #GiletJaunes Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 May 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Joe Rogan!!! I am also hopping on the Tulsi train. I thought I would never vote again… but she will save lives and not surround herself with neocon assholes. https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1124353541953474560   Permalink 1:28 AM – 4 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #symmetry Permalink 12:43 AM – 4 May 2019

@mark_terlesky I’m a fmr journo. Hold a “MJ” fr UC Berkeley. I recently made @nntaleb ‘s above quote the lead pic to my alumnus profile. Hope I don’t get dis-owned by Cal’s SOJ. If I do, fine. I went on to making lots of $ in the law, HR, small biz, & on @Nadex. Thx @nntaleb for all you do! https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1122704840659013639   Permalink 6:41 PM – 3 May 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 2 May 2019

@awells10000 Unequivocally my absolute favorite graphic. Of all time. EVER. Brilliance by @dhavalpanchal @nntaleb @financequant #realworldrisk #bonds #longvol #convexity pic.twitter.com/T67LdksQHA Permalink 3:33 PM – 2 May 2019

@FattestFatTony Not knowin crapola is better than knowin alotta crapola… Permalink 3:25 PM – 2 May 2019

@TulsiGabbard Neocons/Neolibs & MSM all sing from the same songsheet: War war war!!! Trump never gets positive media unless he’s threatening war/carrying out military action. Today, Venezuela. Tomorrow, Iran? Cuba? Who’s next? No wonder NK won’t give up their nukes. https://tulsi.to/support   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/K4zAIk5WhN”>  pic.twitter.com/K4zAIk5WhN Permalink 5:00 AM – 2 May 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Fat Tony nails it again… with plenty of characters to spare https://twitter.com/fattestfattony/status/1123753823254847493   Permalink 2:45 AM – 2 May 2019

@nntaleb Great news: @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition replicates real life by evaluating Abs[forecast-out of sample realization], not probabilities in {0,1}. Replicates accuracy in getting real life payoffs. Will revise as there is verbalistic “forecasting” (a la @Ptetlock) and M4 price. Permalink 3:31 PM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb “If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more” [Bed of Procrustes] https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1123683202525216768   Permalink 1:24 PM – 1 May 2019

@JeanDmello Most of us are non-violent, only because we are outsourcing our violence. Permalink 11:39 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Bayer’s stock is not higher on the news. The market knows the EPA is full of balloney; it is aware that Monsanto wrote too many EPA memos. https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1123593364467793920   Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@Wolfram_Alpha Let’s kick off our anniversary with some cake! Can you figure this out? RT and reply with your answer. #WolframAlpha10 pic.twitter.com/fegGhj4kwL Permalink 10:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb The ability to read the Economist is the reason some people get poor. “The ability to digest milk may explain how Europe got rich”… The Economist pic.twitter.com/PAOn52rRHi Permalink 8:51 AM – 1 May 2019

@Thinker_View pic.twitter.com/DmGkrVLH6n Permalink 8:30 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the resurrection with some #skininthegame https://twitter.com/kritikopoulos/status/1123488943905955845   Permalink 6:19 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb MISSPECIFYING HAYEK: Prediction markets are not commercial markets. pic.twitter.com/Fq6Ns2psbO Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@justinowings A case study in unintended consequences with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects: 1950s: Killing mosquitoes in Borneo solved malaria problem but led to typhoid and collapsing roofs—by killing roaches, lizards, and cats, which helped caterpillars and rats. https://m.sfgate.com/homeandgarden/article/Take-a-lesson-from-Borneo-go-easy-on-the-bug-2546186.php   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ViIwztIRHz”>  pic.twitter.com/ViIwztIRHz Permalink 5:54 AM – 1 May 2019

@Thinker_View On vous aime ! Merci ! pic.twitter.com/Yxtkeso5cO Permalink 4:49 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Presenting the paper in 5 min at the NY quant seminar and need a new title… pic.twitter.com/orR4nq8YgO Permalink 3:52 PM – 30 Apr 2019

@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”? https://twitter.com/imamofpeace/status/1123228044947120128   Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”? https://twitter.com/imamofpeace/status/1123228044947120128   Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@Jonassibony #Protosemitic *ḥimār ‘donkey’ #Akkadian imēru , #Ugaritic ḥimāru #Phoenician ḥmūr #Hebrew #Samaritan ‘émur ࠇࠌࠅࠓ #Tiberian ḥămōr חֲמוֹר #Aramaic #Syriac ḥmārā ܚܡܵܪܵܐ #Jewish ḥămārā חֲמָרָא #Arabic ḥimār حِمار #Sabaic ḥmr #asemiticwordaday Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Syrian refugees at ~ 25% of the pop. in Lebanon. Syria is now SAFE. But the US State Dept’s Satterfield opposes their repatriation as “it would legitimize Assad”. IYI Satterfield shd take some in his house. Shd Lebanese pay the price for HIS bone w/Assad? #SkinintheGame #Ethics pic.twitter.com/mwlramce34 Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@digvijoy_c A concept @nntaleb dedicated his life to. https://twitter.com/then_there_was/status/1122542048689524742   Permalink 9:47 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Now after the lamentations, the Great Doxology, bilingual by chanted by Greeks and Lebanese. https://youtu.be/COwJtmZ6z8Q   Permalink 8:14 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@NonMeek It’s so insightful that I had to draw a rare [for me] Sunday comic strip about it. Hopefully it does your piece justice … can’t help you with the math though ;-) (0, 1) ≠ (-∞, ∞), #LudicFallacy pic.twitter.com/lHwwTF6oOg Permalink 8:06 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@kivil Ancient wisdom resonates with @nntaleb https://twitter.com/UnwobblingPivot/status/1122874664634785794   Permalink 7:51 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 7 +That you need to be a good “forecaster” to perform well. In fact you may NEED to be a bad forecaster to survive, get rich, etc. +Probability is a nonseparable kernel inside an integral. Most of the psych lit is BS https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share   Permalink 5:47 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 6 + Lebanese is a standalone Semitic language; it and Arabic are separate languages, not mutually understandable, no matter how much the “Arabistas” try to smoke you with pseudoscientific claims. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 5:34 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@LeesSebastian “Administrators everywhere on the planet, in all businesses and pursuits, and at all times in history, have been the plague.” – @nntaleb Re-reading SITG – This quote is fucking awesome, and rings very very true. Permalink 2:55 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Hanaia is Aramaic for “Abdallah” or “Ovadia” or “Theophilus” or “Amadeus”, no? https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1122577518320467969   Permalink 1:50 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid https://www.academia.edu/38962327/_One_Does_Not_Eat_Forecasts_On_the_Difference_between_Forecasting_and_Real_Life_Payoffs?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE GOOD NEWS OF MACHINE LEARNING: How we can replace the verbalistic “prediction” (or, worse “belief”) with a more rigorous payoff function and how ReLu or call options can express ALL nonlinear payoffs (universal approximation theorem) pic.twitter.com/Pw6PkVVP3F Permalink 12:24 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@RichardHanania The university is now an institution run by and for administrators pic.twitter.com/KxYfStgFTy Permalink 12:05 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@aaronjmate 1/ If YouTube were to recommend your show, it’d be recommending the leading purveyor of now debunked Trump-Russia conspiracy theories, falsehoods & innuendo of the last 2+ years. Here’s a sample: Permalink 10:23 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How to commit statistical BS-vending and not realize it. Please keep journos out of “slopes” and “trends” (as well as other things) (The slope is a random variable with high variance) https://twitter.com/ritholtz/status/1122441842719481857   Permalink 8:09 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 4:33 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@amaltaash (34/35) General Two gems from @nntaleb: -Never compare thin-tailed variables with fat-tailed ones: e.g. # of ppl dying in their bathtubs vs killed by terrorists per year. -IQ is a filter at the low end, to help figure out if someone has a learning/thinking disability. That’s it Permalink 2:12 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Guru, this is exactly my point about Fake News. Bottom up fake news is better than authoritarian top down fake news… Permalink 2:57 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile how Orthodox Christians in North Syria celebrate the resurrection: https://youtu.be/Z1aQKTqVpeY   Permalink 2:32 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SECOND DISCLAIMER: The victim was arrested at 16, beheaded at 21. Permalink 2:22 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And Saudi Barbaria beheaded a total of 37 people, one of whom was crucified. Permalink 10:54 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb DISCLAIMER: It appears that the picture comes from a different execution (perhaps ISIS, another Wahabi group). But Saudi Barbaria effectively executed a 16 y.o. Shiite by beheading. Permalink 10:06 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb A Shiite 16-Year-Old https://twitter.com/RonPaulInstitut/status/1122177096456048641   Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Χριστός ἀνέστη! Permalink 6:35 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some have serious reading comprehension. The point is not that Obama did nothing scandalous. The point is that he was NOT caught or the media did not make a big deal. (Sorry, but I block idiots to avoid degrading the discussion. Nothing personal). Permalink 6:32 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama had no scandal, behaved w/dignity & extreme decorum. But -Increased centralization, bureaucratism, faught federalism -Crony capitalism, bankers > $$ than 2006 -Intrusive state w/evil nudgeboys Sunstein/Thaler, IYIs -Blew up Lybia, Syria, exterminated Syrian Christians… https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1113523235503706112   Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb A book is summarizable degree n when the 2nd, 3rd,…, up the nth reading reveal things you did not get at the first reading. (A book is summarizable degree 0 when the first reading reveals nothing you didn’t get by not reading.) Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb AXION ESTIN! Good Friday Chants in Graeco-Arabic, the 3 Stasis. At 7:44 the Generation chant that ancestors have been reciting for almost 2 millennia, promising to pass on to the next generation. https://youtu.be/6QWhBaQ25Kk   via @YouTube Permalink 1:18 PM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb (Today is Orthodox Good Friday) Another Greco-Arabic chant from Lebanon https://youtu.be/_-EB6g5pIbA   Permalink 11:27 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Megali Paraskevi in Greco-Arabic. Fairuz- Η ζωή εν τάφω https://youtu.be/xiE-biR9USU   via @YouTube Permalink 10:17 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which also explains why Mr @WGoetzman (a “finance” professor) has a severe technical flaw in almost all of his work involving tails & investor “belief”. Among other problems of course. https://twitter.com/WGoetzmann/status/730379452169867264   Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Bastiat #SeenAndUnseen pic.twitter.com/KxSzxJfAvI Permalink 6:56 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@thackerpd .@Reuters editor @williamsmjw says he stands behind Kelland’s reporting, as does “Ethics Editor” @AlixFreedman This is a joke. @duffwilson @AmandaBecker @aterkel @cgseife @charlesornstein @CharlesPPierce @sfoucart @jackshafer @mlcalderone https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1121766540372791296   Permalink 6:25 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie A happy accident this morning as @nntaleb shares a paper on the exact topic I’m staring at my screen thinking about. pic.twitter.com/OYM6NReNCx Permalink 6:08 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb You don’t see much of the snow from Beirut itself, you need to be >½ mile away from the Phoenician coast. Permalink 5:57 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/id9nVTVQm9 Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Renamed the paper: “One Cannot Eat Forecasts”. New version. pic.twitter.com/BLRxp3Wzsv Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Religio as counter to superstitio https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Apr 2019

@jeitoapp Bar in London that won “just about every award going” closes less than 1 year after. Where did I hear this before? #SkinInTheGame @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9KERqJSnCV Permalink 10:49 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Circular reasoning is still reasoning. The inherent circularity of #IQ scores captured in a cartoon strip and a @nntaleb tweet [IQ correlates, part 3 of x]. #psychology #psychometrics pic.twitter.com/EelH5YSidV Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Scientific papers should be written like car manuals. No prose, just precision. Showing psychologists have NO IDEA about “overestimation” of tail probabilities, (technical version of my lecktshur at the great @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition). pic.twitter.com/DXUbsMTV4F Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Beirut seen from the water. The Phoenician coast below Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/S7YAGWqpsF Permalink 8:26 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 Proves @nntaleb point. Large caps skewed to downside and small to the upside https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1121395240257097728   Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our precautionary principle tried to show this possibility to GMO idiots who believe that science=scientism. https://twitter.com/nature/status/1121227592475000832   Permalink 4:24 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No kidding? https://twitter.com/nature/status/1121227592475000832   Permalink 1:37 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No butter! Permalink 5:45 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Two more days of Orthodox lent: vegan. Antonio Spadaro does wonders with the basic ingredients. pic.twitter.com/QYs4MPD282 Permalink 5:44 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@TarekMilleron Muilenburg’s denial of fault is hollow. Would he put his family on the “old” #737max, with randomly-selected 737-rated commercial pilots, bust off the relevant angle-of-attack sensor and take off? Repeat x10? No #skininthegame yet he subjected passengers and crew to that risk. Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@normonics This is enlightening. In fat-tailed domain conditional expectation is greater than conditional threshold K this drags one’s exposure even further into the tails, breaking the simplistic assumptions that provide pseudo-sophistication of recipe-users https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1121033494623334400   Permalink 12:08 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb For example: why we humans do NOT overestimate small probabilities as stated in most cases. pic.twitter.com/Z2ScOIajt0 Permalink 5:49 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb What to study in college? What doesn’t bore you. (but the waist is still too thin) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1121029802792714240   Permalink 5:48 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #college #guidance #counselor pic.twitter.com/6QVhXWpFaj Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@TheBondFreak @nntaleb, seems she’s getting it right. https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1121025866501279744   Permalink 5:28 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists and Probability Why there is no “overestimation” of small probabilities (in most cases) and psychologists misunderstood the real distributions. PARANOIA pays! pic.twitter.com/ZyZ2eMIp2i Permalink 5:05 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@InvestorSwedish @nntaleb thanks a million for your Incerto series! It’s been great for questioning much that I’ve previously been taking for granted – for investing, and life in general, too. Here’s my humble contribution to your paradigm-challenging series: https://youtu.be/Av7kpPJqac0   via @YouTube Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delenda Saudi Barbaria https://twitter.com/marwa__osman/status/1120871400263356417   Permalink 3:33 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@focusontheb This is one of @nntaleb’s points that seems hard for a lot of people (me too!) to grasp: if something works, it can’t really be considered dumb. “Oh Mike! You misspelled that word!” “Oh Mike! How do you get so much engagement?” Same person Permalink 2:38 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@Steve_Sailer In the Current Year, do any lectures on “Whiteness” not consist of racist hate speech? Perhaps the keynote address at a convention of laundry detergent chemists? @wmarybeard https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/1112309521702178817   Permalink 3:47 PM – 23 Apr 2019

Entropy, Monsanto, Mutual Information, “European”, Localism, Correlation, Leaving NY, IQ, Pinker, DUNNING-K | Twitter

@paulportesi Seriously I f****** love waking up to this. Entropy methods better than correlation in nonlinearities. F****** brilliant. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1111966227503689728   Permalink 5:54 AM – 30 Mar 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Just to show the vast superiority of Entropy methods such as Mutual Information over correlation, and to show how correlation breaks down under nonlinearity, consider high Mutual information but “zero correlation” in the case of a straddle: pic.twitter.com/U6VLXFohkF Permalink 5:19 AM – 30 Mar 2019

@vonkronstadt https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728562580583796737   Permalink 3:02 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@Gordon48814362 “Wittgenstein argues, among other things, that superficial grammatical similarities in the forms of both religious and factual statements mislead us into believing that they are fundamentally identical states of “belief.”” This is @nntaleb ‘s point, protestants got it mixed up Permalink 2:22 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@CaseyBHead Americans lost confidence in political parties, public schools, courts, organized labor, banks, big business, media and other institutions because they didn’t change with society. We need to create robust, decentralized, voluntary institutions. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1111606150900912128   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @mises @WarrenBuffett #Greenspan @jaegerlecoultre #MarxBrothers #Moonraker pic.twitter.com/KTUE9ktc0l Permalink 11:20 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@thackerpd Roundup Trial: Monsanto Used Fake Data to Win Over Regulators https://www.courthousenews.com/roundup-trial-monsanto-used-fake-data-to-win-over-regulators/   #Monsanto planted an employee at a lab to fake data Planned an attack on @IARCWHO Exploited ties at the @EPA ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/FTFSGQXQUq”>  pic.twitter.com/FTFSGQXQUq Permalink 5:43 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Institutions tend to work at their beginning. So does centralization. Then rotting starts. Permalink 5:28 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:33 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This is the free copy of the paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   Permalink 2:21 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FINALLY PUBLISHED How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for f… https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018301535   Permalink 1:22 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FINALLY PUBLISHED How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for f… https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018301535   Permalink 1:22 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Question about convention in @WolframResearch’s Mathematica with the dot product vs multiplication. What is standard for X .Transpose [Y] vs X Y ? @SwedeWhite pic.twitter.com/5kUX71o2CS Permalink 10:41 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 100% of Survival is reliability. — CNN is committing suicide. Even its partisans, those who cheer its slant on the news, will rapidly scorn it. #Lindy Permalink 9:58 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism @nntaleb @normonics ? https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1111152928725753857   Permalink 6:54 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb No Monsanto shill & people who engage in vile smear campaigns against scientists skeptical of GMOs/Glyphosate should remain unaccountable. Gabish? @EconTalker https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1110960948527927297   Permalink 4:30 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto… https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_6OcNCbWCC13TJ   via @amazon Permalink 3:56 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Antonio Spadaro, friend for 8 years, squid ink Grand Maestro. pic.twitter.com/ZPsglOkP34 Permalink 5:19 PM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Antonio Spadaro of New Rochelle (and Sicily) , (very) proud of his squid ink risotto! pic.twitter.com/QBhJBSecPB Permalink 4:58 PM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The next contagion of costly virtue signaling. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-26/hedge-fund-returns-300-million-saudi-investments-over-khashoggi-killing   Permalink 10:12 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To be precise, Hagia Sophia’s “original” state is, technically, a church (actually, a Cathedral). https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1110840663183183872   Permalink 7:53 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@ggreenwald The entire purpose of this 8,000-wrod @NewYorker profile was to depict me as being mentally unwell – psychologically damaged and full of rage and resentment – as the explanation for why I refused to stop questioning the undeniable truth of collusion https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/09/03/glenn-greenwald-the-bane-of-their-resistance   Permalink 7:52 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@PZalloua It is here!!! https://twitter.com/phoenicianinst/status/1110914446065651713   Permalink 7:43 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@mythoughtfood Proof that science is an über slow process. ” For centuries, scholars have argued over his account because there was no archaeological evidence that such ships ever existed. ” Now the ship exists. Classic case of absence of evidence confused with evidence of absence @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Jamie_Woodward_/status/1107254598169968640   Permalink 5:01 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@CTBnutrition @nntaleb thank you for standing up to these crooks and inspiring others to do so as well. pic.twitter.com/vCchT69n8W Permalink 6:12 PM – 26 Mar 2019

@davidsarac Curiosity which leads to tinkering brings forward emergence & transformation. Creativity which obsesses about novelty results in social degeneration Curiosity is underrated in current day and age, while creativity is severely overrated. pic.twitter.com/k5qjWwoOln Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A Byzantine health station in North Lebanon. Two of my ancestors come from there. https://twitter.com/XNaheereX/status/1110567881866207232   Permalink 8:47 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb @felhagehistoire Permalink 8:46 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A Historian showing the link between the French revolution & lack of skin in the game on the part of aristocrats, who owe their initial status to the fact that they need to take risk w/their lives for others. There is something annoying in status without risk and #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/2X9ATrD6sl Permalink 8:42 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mutual information sheds light on why low correlations are meaningless. Things are now clearer and clearer. pic.twitter.com/3ioccAWOIJ Permalink 7:41 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@GreenFuzz24 Answer to global problems and uncertainty is the total opposite: fractal localism. See: @nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 7:40 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BEAUTIFUL DISCOVERY Unlike correlation, Mutual Information (cross entropy) is additive. On that, later. Permalink 4:50 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@Cernovich He was the head of the CIA. That’s what I take away most from the Russian collusion hoax. The power they have over human lives. How many people did Brennan have tortured based on his intel? These are evil people. https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/ex-cia-director-john-brennan-admits-he-may-have-had-bad-information-regarding-president-trump-and-russia   Permalink 4:03 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@ektrit https://twitter.com/halaljew/status/1110226314202677248?s=19   Permalink 1:21 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Confused by Correlation? https://youtu.be/p76bQlnVuBM   Permalink 1:35 PM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Paul Krugman @paulkrugman remains the best argument for the suspension of the “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”. https://twitter.com/greta/status/1110126131557085185   Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@ektrit Current concept of “European” was conceived in the 19th century meaning “Not Muslim”, or “Not Turk”, that is why Europe is being handled as a separate “continent”, while not being an actual continent. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1110132957359099907   Permalink 5:40 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Stephennie Mulder @stephenniem is another one who falls for the trap of Northern European Supremacism & Med denigration under cover of “diversity” https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:40 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb My entire book Fooled by Randomness was that the modern interpretation of “Intelligence” (as reflected in IQ tests/school grades) seems to favor those prone to be *fooled by false patterns* over those who can intellectually grasp the notion of randomness/absence of information. https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1110128220265836545   Permalink 4:13 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “European” is a modern term, not a genetic term. “Western Eurasian” is the genetic zone, which largely contradicts her point. Why are ideological historians so ignorant? https://twitter.com/stephenniem/status/1109795282806542336   Permalink 3:54 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Not #Lindy. https://twitter.com/lukeharding1968/status/936577757676494854   Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@ggreenwald Turning on Mueller and impugning his integrity and competence is the inevitable outcome – it’s the only play the Trump/Russia devotees have – and here’s the start: https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1109934811236306944   Permalink 4:47 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@lebanonpics Lebanon Houses pic.twitter.com/TZGqhovFkJ Permalink 12:11 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb When people get rich, they start follow the constructed preferences by the marketing industry, get hoodwinked into complicated lives… then, if they are lucky, give up. https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   Permalink 7:28 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb If you explicitly understand what you *really* like, you have a yuuuge advantage in life. γνῶθι σεαυτόν Permalink 7:22 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb People don’t know their preferences: they think they like large houses, but prefer to huddle in small spaces over large empty silent rooms. Never ask pple what they “like”, watch what they do. #Skininthegame https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-growing-problem-in-real-estate-too-many-too-big-houses-11553181782?shareToken=st3ef00990e5c44084b72a3fc0bc599e11   via @WSJ Permalink 7:16 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – “any person psychopathologizing another, particularly when there is political divergence.” – Serial nitpickers – Lobbyists – Pple who answer “stick to your discipline” instead of counterargument – Someone abusing language w/”racist”, “nazi”, etc. Permalink 6:11 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – people who don’t get that tweets and aphorisms don’t need hedging – people with cute remarks on math problems – people who give unsolicited advice – people who make logical mistakes – people who represent Monsanto/Saudi Barbaria Permalink 6:10 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” – people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom [@nntaleb] DO[es] NOT want to have an exchange because you DO[es] NOT learn/advance from bullshit. – sophistry Permalink 6:08 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt Without further ado, a list of blockable offenses according to @nntaleb (who once blocked me, forcing me to create a new account (don’t block me bro)) Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=%40nntaleb%20block&src=typd&lang=en   – idiots – people who discuss @nntaleb’s tone – anyone who mentions dunning-kruger in his feed Permalink 6:07 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@JordiLlatzer You NEVER are able to change just one square on a Rubik cube. That’s how complex systems work. That is how life works. Permalink 11:29 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/LouisLebbos/status/1018912920221241354   Permalink 10:11 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@nntaleb For Power law, it is … worse. 2 Quadrants will have a negative correlation! pic.twitter.com/H8JTcEjNIz Permalink 10:01 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@Jaffer22915438 I will never stay silent about our government’s and MSM’s lust for war and will call out every pinhead jackass who lie to bring death & destruction abroad. if you have a few minutes, read Taibbi’s latest: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/iraq-war-media-fail-matt-taibbi-812230/amp/?__twitter_impression=true   Permalink 4:31 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@NathanH48069967 As @nntaleb maintains: we need localism. “. . . you can’t fool the neighborhood. . .” “. . built a massive . . structure that . . James Howard Kunstler would later liken to a “Darth Vader building”. .” Southern Poverty Law Center https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-reckoning-of-morris-dees-and-the-southern-poverty-law-center   Permalink 8:44 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb An illustration of my point that “Psychology is a self-referential publishing ring”. https://twitter.com/EPoe187/status/1109074623407288320   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Please explain “correlation”. Now. Permalink 6:37 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The first casualy of the metric is the “Sortino ratio” used in finance. pic.twitter.com/S8fOTTwW0R Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists like @EPoe187 are *genuinely* convinced that theirs is a science, and that their measurements are like those in physics. https://twitter.com/EPoe187/status/1108706958507458560   Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mike @mikeharrisNY explains it better than anyone else. https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1108837935699382277   Permalink 2:47 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb From those wondering who is the Dan from Prague, he is the one who gave me the most effective blurb ever written on the back of a book. pic.twitter.com/qtXtYWuEYG Permalink 2:44 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I got the intuition in 1 D, from variance. pic.twitter.com/rAavGRIhdT Permalink 2:38 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@mikeharrisNY The way I see it: due to intricate properties of corr function, sub-sample corr cannot be inferred from sample corr when those sub-samples are not random but refer to specific ranges. Applies to IQ-income corr. Applies to finance and has fooled portfolio managers. Major discovery Permalink 2:08 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally found Dan from Prague. https://twitter.com/maircomm/status/1108811863431749632   Permalink 12:28 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@garyruskin Fired Quebec scientist blew the whistle on #pesticide lobby influence. Via @NatObserver @ottawacarl http://bit.ly/2FhU6F8   “the union said he was trying to alert his superiors about attempts by industry to suppress publicly-funded science on the health effects of pesticides.” Permalink 10:20 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This is a Monte Carlo code for replication to prove I am not hallucinating pic.twitter.com/G8L0JRYi4R Permalink 8:07 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Look here: I break up a quadrant into 4 subquadrants. Correlation keeps getting lower. Reason: correlation is convex. pic.twitter.com/GgskQcsyna Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/7VpTPlGpXe Permalink 7:11 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@355BC326BC The Greek Orthodox Cathedral of Saint George, the Mother-Cathedral of the Orthodox community in the city of Beirut, Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/athsZg0YDR Permalink 9:25 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Correlation is Weird: all non random subsamples will yield a correlation below the total one. pic.twitter.com/ZBplIjnmuX Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@rorysutherland Cheap talk versus skin in the game! https://twitter.com/CravenPartners/status/1108459626373279744   Permalink 1:14 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb @SClarkeWriter Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Cyprus = Lebanon without the egos. https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1108077355594104832   Permalink 4:17 PM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto spent $$$ insulting science by transforming it into propaganda, smearing scientists & pple like yours truly who were skeptical of their risk management. Bayer had the brilliant idea of buying Monsanto. From here on, the process is unstoppable! https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1108134186236272640   Permalink 3:59 PM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb #Mars2019 pic.twitter.com/ShEvg2YtTP Permalink 10:36 AM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb ” Yém7é ésmo w Zkro” is an ancient Mediterranean practice יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ The equivalent is “damnatio memoriae” for the Romans. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1107970750454091776   Permalink 5:22 AM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb My review of Stephen Clarke’s book on the French Revolution. https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Stephen+Clarke+%28author%29&ref=cm_cr_srp_d_pdt_bl_sr   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5zKA0m3ZFd”>  pic.twitter.com/5zKA0m3ZFd Permalink 5:37 PM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb So correlation, even under nonlinearities, has a strict narrow meaning. When correlation is 80% it will be insignificant in 2 quadrants (.02), and .57 in others. Even something taken for granted s.a. correlation is hard. pic.twitter.com/wJ3XhrWljN Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb You can see through the BS by having a single plot “IQ” vs “Age at death” with a VERY large sample (general population) without control schmontrol and all the discussions. THEN do you do analytics. Permalink 7:59 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Analytic Solution is Done. We can see Correlation is sub and superadditive pending on Quadrant. And what happens with different Quadrant Correlations. pic.twitter.com/dWhGt24LKU Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Where I discover that the common Levantine name”Fares” or “Phares” does not mean “horserider” but comes from Φαρές, the Syrian-Greek transliteration of the Hebrew “Perez” or “Peretz” פרץ son of Judah. @WalidPhares pic.twitter.com/QmjgleMQkD Permalink 7:01 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Scott Adams blocked a bunch of people (including me) over the remark. It is hard for laymen to be told: “Sutor, ne ultra crepidam” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1100446659379638272   Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Can Mr @JoshuaGrubbsPhD, PhD show us the error terms of his graph? Just an honest plot with all the data points will suffice. Thank you. https://twitter.com/JoshuaGrubbsPhD/status/1107079163146657792   Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@financequant I don’t always know how to succeed, but I know how to survive–and I sure as hell am not ready to give up. Permalink 1:25 PM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In my manifesto I discuss a SCALE TRANSFORMATION: A group of assholes pursuing asshole interests under the rule of law produces a virtuous society; A group of moralizing utopianists trying to make society virtuous produce …hell. Adding complexity to Mandeville/Smith. Permalink 10:40 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb For those into envy politics who plan on taxing the rich as sitting duck, remember the properties of power laws: between ½ & 2% of taxpayers paid up to 50% of state taxes. At the margin, the departure of 5-10 people can bankrupt a state! IYIs think in statics not dynamics. pic.twitter.com/NPvJbxPXvI Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am not fully leaving NY yet, just using it as a “secondary” residence for now (I spent less than 4-5 months there anyway). Just to make sure these socialist lunatics don’t surprise me with some expropriation. Permalink 9:30 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Received the incredibly well made book by ⁦@drjasonfung⁩ and ⁦@drjamesdinic⁩. They use the potent designation “nonfood items”. I wonder how many nutritional studies would still hold their conclusions if we removed “nonfoods” from the tests. Science is hard. pic.twitter.com/toI9UiRPyT Permalink 9:21 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@Monsantobuster GMO arguments by shills. cc:@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/t50VmSP1mz Permalink 6:45 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb NY will soon learn that only way you can enforce socialism is by closing borders and keeping people trapped inside (Cuba, Soviet bloc). People vote with their feet: a mechanism by which organic systems enforce selection. Permalink 5:42 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I just got a thingy in Atlanta to move away from these suicidal lunatics in NY. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-16/class-warfare-tax-absentee-nyc-property-owners-met-strong-opposition   Permalink 3:39 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The word “Wine” <- vinum <- οίνος (->vin, vino, etc.) comes from the Phoenician יין (Yayn). Affaire closed. #Lindy. Permalink 3:27 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BEWARE THE “JUST SO” It was always assumed that civilization began with agriculture. Gobekli Tepe, though, was built 500 years before its people built their first farms. https://allthatsinteresting.com/gobekli-tepe?utm_source=pubexchange_twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=pubx_ancient_origins   Permalink 1:15 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Clearer: Shows the quadrant-dependent nature of correlation (and its su-additivity) EVEN in the absence of nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com/kW2EMj4spn Permalink 10:00 AM – 16 Mar 2019

@mrraoofi After so many years using the word “IQ” instead of “intelligence” or “cleverness”, many people have difficulty understanding the point @nntaleb makes about the swindle which is IQ. You say: IQ, they hear: intelligence or mental capacity,…. Permalink 1:09 AM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A simple Monte Carlo showing how correlation is NOT ADDITIVE; sums of quadrant correlations do nto match the aggregate. Analytical solution done but needs trimming. @apgox pic.twitter.com/Yea2IHssvZ Permalink 6:53 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FOOLED BY CORRELATION: even when rho=0, we see positive correlation in the double negative quadrants. Without even adding nonlinearities. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/qcRQNvZb8Z Permalink 2:36 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FOr the nth time, it is not that IQ does not measure social skills/wisdom, etc. It DOES NOT MEASURE MENTAL CAPACITY. Gabish? https://twitter.com/JM_Irishitaly/status/1106634471808397316   Permalink 12:15 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb More background info https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 12:13 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Same story for income. Above average income there is NO correlation. A “low IQ” person as likely to get a higher income. pic.twitter.com/SlMgwgWuoc Permalink 12:00 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The IQ situation even worse. Found that here is no correlation IQ- income/wealth at highers levels EVEN FOR LOW IQ. Hence the math used for “g” fails. Psycholophasters do not seem to know what correlations mean under nonlinearity. And, BTW @jordanbPeterson is a quack. pic.twitter.com/BCN3Z1JMYt Permalink 11:56 AM – 15 Mar 2019

@hugowiz «They are also prone to mistake the ensemble for the linear aggregation of its components—that is, they think that our understanding of single individuals allows us to understand crowds and markets …» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #IYI #Intellectuals pic.twitter.com/Dkk8RWALM1 Permalink 8:19 AM – 15 Mar 2019

@IlhanMN The Saudi royal family has literally helped fund Al Qaeda. This is the debate no one wants to have but needs to be had. Saudi accountability is long overdue. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/world/middleeast/24saudi.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share   https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1105903411579572227   Permalink 12:09 PM – 14 Mar 2019

@RandPaul Jailed Saudi female activists have been subjected to torture, beatings, electric shocks, and sexual abuse. Don’t sell arms to barbarians! https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/saudi-female-activists-finally-get-a-day-in-court-they-deserve-freedom/2019/03/13/0bcf1990-45a5-11e9-90f0-0ccfeec87a61_story.html   Permalink 11:24 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics means NO to corporatocracy. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1106224344995381249   Permalink 9:41 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb If there is someone spreading statistical illiteracy & naive empiricism, it is @sapinker. Statistics is hard. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1106171241499508744   Permalink 6:47 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Universa meeting in Miami. pic.twitter.com/642WWbYEfK Permalink 4:17 PM – 13 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Why “good” forecasters go bust and how the literature in psych on decision theory is at least 2000 years behind pic.twitter.com/7aj0hrqBT9 Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Yes, when said wage is low. Ironically you are freest at low income; much much more than when in the middle class. https://twitter.com/dkhozem/status/1105612154097594368   Permalink 5:11 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Final typos removed pic.twitter.com/06QAO55PLK Permalink 3:36 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Formal proof pic.twitter.com/FPTPhHaHN3 Permalink 3:04 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Applying it to the Lognormal pic.twitter.com/UsrYpcF8NX Permalink 2:39 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fus7a is largely a fabricated language used by poets to impress poets. @Safaitic is by far the most insightful linguist I’ve ever encountered. https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1105570076932087808   Permalink 1:47 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb DUNNING-K From now on, I block anyone mentioning Dunning-Kruger in my feed. 1) It doesn’t really exist (bad science by psycholophasters), 2) it doesn’t really apply in most cases where mentioned. Gabish? Permalink 12:09 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Hint: as volatility rises, because the distribution is bounded to the left, the probability of exceeding any level goes to 0, with the mass a Dirac at 0. The point is that all the expectation is owed to a single low probability tail event. pic.twitter.com/0y0M1bhFDK Permalink 12:00 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A bureaucrat is judged by other bureaucrats. That’s the root of the problem. Permalink 11:47 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@tedcruz First time I’ve ever retweeted @ewarren But she’s right—Big Tech has way too much power to silence Free Speech. They shouldn’t be censoring Warren, or anybody else. A serious threat to our democracy. https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1105256905058979841   Permalink 10:40 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In the past, scholars who were not financially independent were directly funded by Maecenas —rich patrons. Today they are funded by bureaucrats. #Skininthegame Permalink 10:12 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ du jour pic.twitter.com/kM1CkZnNzz Permalink 8:37 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In #Antifragile: Making pilots rely on automation… pic.twitter.com/iYfy7o316r Permalink 7:50 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@Firsou He gets it. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1105468569800839169   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Looks like in spite of all of the arguments, psychologists s.a. @NickWolfinger and his BS vending econ friends @ATabarrok et al. do not know what correlation means, how it works under nonlinarities, etc. They are not even at par to understand the insults. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1105300436540522496   Permalink 6:03 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Indeed someone in the Administration is heeding the practical suggestions associated with #Skininthegame. Trump’s Budget: pic.twitter.com/bctISMWwK2 Permalink 5:21 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The passage in #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/WFD1lNVmje Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Mar 2019

@holland_tom “A God who didn’t really suffer on the cross would be like magician who performed an illusion” – @nntaleb on the implications of the docetist Christ having no skin in the game. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1105154307568095233   Permalink 11:25 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I meant The LAW OF MEDIUM NUMBERS Permalink 10:40 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I should have named the article: THE LAWS OF MIDDLE NUMBERS Since it shows how the law of large numbers works before the limit. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   Permalink 10:35 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@DrMichaelBonner If anyone want to read my review of #SkinintheGame, it’s here: https://www.academia.edu/36659057/Aphorisms_from_Antique_Lands   Permalink 10:11 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In #Antifragile, you need strong evidence to override nature’s reaction. Nobody could back up why we ice injuries. Nobody, https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1105109687538802688   Permalink 9:23 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@RustedOak The President’s budget was released today. Page 2 mentions colleges having #SkinInTheGame and student loan Risk Sharing just like @purduemitch has preached for years, @nntaleb for decades. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/budget-fy2020.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dy4oceNceX”>  pic.twitter.com/dy4oceNceX Permalink 8:50 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@CantHardyWait Here @nntaleb captures why he doesn’t have an assistant. “You want maximum free time, not maximum activity” pic.twitter.com/GW3wNwmg5w Permalink 5:35 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Lawla l3arabé baddo ymshé kén alla3 min zamén. W-halla2 ma3 social media ma 3ad fi majél la2anno lss7f 3am tmut. Permalink 4:10 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This money belongs to the taxpayers. Public office is not an investment strategy. https://twitter.com/epsilontheory/status/1104847045087641600   Permalink 4:06 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This money belongs to the taxpayers. Public office is not an investment strategy. https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1104847045087641600   Permalink 4:06 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A bit a background about my twitter fights, as lying on a hammock becomes excruciatingly boring after 4-6 min. pic.twitter.com/urd3mhHRaM Permalink 6:55 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @WarrenBuffett #buffettman #marginofsafety #tailrisk #lifejacket pic.twitter.com/C95mRn4Cvu Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Using an unreliable measure s.a. IQ on grounds that that’s “what best we got” and “science” proceeds that way” (it doesn’t) is accepting self labelled “bullshit” as scientific statements. And this Bullshit is a technical term in philosophy: the disrespect for Truth. Permalink 5:54 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Not my point. My point is that IQ doesn’t even measure that part of intelligence it is supposed to measure. Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2tana3t. Khalas! Case closed. https://twitter.com/encrier/status/1104389426233384962   Baddna nmshé ma3 l wé2e3 Permalink 5:28 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BTW this is the latest version on IQ https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:18 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@PaulSkallas https://twitter.com/DIsaac8/status/979874998289547264?s=19   Permalink 5:00 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am waiting for the dust to settle on the IQ and “g” thingy to address something called the Big Five and the “factor analysis”. It does make astrology look like an academic discipline. Permalink 4:57 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Philosophia ancilla theologiae Permalink 4:07 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@seyyedreza Ezekiel’s Tomb is located between Najaf and Karbala, Shia Islam’s holiest sites. Not only did Jews and Muslims worship side by side; their practices influenced each other. Scholars argue that Jewish practices at the tomb are based on Shia ziyara rituals. https://ajammc.com/2019/03/03/ezekiels-tomb-jewish-iraq-muslim/   Permalink 1:05 PM – 9 Mar 2019

Mesopotamia, Miami, Migrations, Molyneux, PSYCHOLOGY, Monsanto, 2018, Wittgenstein’s Ruler, “IQ”, Pinker, One Tweetstorm, Mongolians, Charles Murray, Isaac Levi,

@spyrosmakrid USA TODAY Article Published Jan 18, 19 “Do you have High Blood Pressure (HBP)? It depends on which doctor you ask” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2019/01/18/high-blood-pressure-guidelines-american-heart-association-college-cardiology/2607407002/   AND which study you use (some saying HBP decreases life expectancy by 5 years others by couple of months) https://openheart.bmj.com/content/1/1/e000048   @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7rMRj5DDVO”>  pic.twitter.com/7rMRj5DDVO Permalink 8:18 AM – 19 Jan 2019

@Lipsie ( message to #Millennials ) Bae (s), “you want to help mankind, start a business” a.k.a stop taking long haul flights to have your photos taken with black kids suburbs of Nairobi. Yeet ? Now bounce xxx c/o @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 2:21 AM – 19 Jan 2019

@nntaleb (And no, I am not setting foot in South Beach. Not even for squid ink.) Permalink 4:02 PM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists, among other very serious defects, cherrypick data. https://twitter.com/jbenton/status/1085960543079419905   Permalink 2:46 PM – 18 Jan 2019

@l0bbelt In true Talebian tradition, I will block you because you are an idiot. Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@TimMcCoy5 I follow maths expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Here’s why – his on the record predictions in May 2016 pic.twitter.com/RJ0qALhSZ4 Permalink 10:19 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/8usJEXuHge Permalink 9:55 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@NonMeek Here’s the #Offshore IQ -collection in its entirety. I gather intelligence is mostly about not being stupid. This collection will help with that. [inspired by @nntaleb & #IQ-tweetstorm] pic.twitter.com/MuE271iWcv Permalink 7:56 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Miami (downtown): Something refreshing about a town devoid of any pretense of intellectualism. Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Basic analytical problems pervade psychology. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1086259582052286465   Permalink 7:24 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Look at things from probability… Remember Cramer & other dist of gaps between primes. pic.twitter.com/IndsleeIp6 Permalink 7:23 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Goes flat, then fools you with a jump. https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1083722706963582976   Permalink 4:51 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@Firsou The dietary data that they used to constitute the “Mediterranean Diet Pyramid”, that Willett considered “the optimal diet”, was collected in Crete during Lent, when no meat or dairy are consumed until Easter. They are basing their recommendations on pure BS @Mangan150 pic.twitter.com/IyhOPvL55V Permalink 12:24 PM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 That historical accounts of migrations are largely fiction: there have been little movement in S. W. Eurasia [Mediterranean + Anatolia] since the Bronze age. Ancient Greeks weren’t blond “Aryans”; looked like someone in Astoria. https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1085894427263070209   Permalink 6:56 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Precisely why Psychology is nonsense: you call their BS they claim that there is something wrong with you. [ Incidentally there is little new & true psychologists know that was not perfected by 1) thieves, 2) used car salesmen, 3)magicians. ] https://twitter.com/benrobbins/status/1085898485788856326   Permalink 6:05 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis (Clearly the statement by the quack-quack Molyneux that the population of Mesopotamia was “replaced” by peninsulars & other invaders doesn’t hold.) Permalink 5:26 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The entire problem with closing psychology departments: you need a place to put (talkative) neurotic people. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085635799209660416   Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My genetics (probability) paper. pic.twitter.com/IIte4sC2lK Permalink 4:41 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb μεράκι = soul in the game. Permalink 5:53 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Why statistician are way out of their depth w/BIG DATA: + To a statistician, there are single variables, scalars, vectors, and matrices, separate “tings” in various degrees of complication. + To a probabilist, a scalar is just a low dimensional matrix. All the same “ting”. Permalink 4:32 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Neaaaaaaat https://twitter.com/samuelgwalters/status/1085373506643156992   Permalink 2:51 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Salibi, genetics show, is largely fabrication. #science #rigor https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1085623558242426880   Permalink 2:39 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@pennedtweets And if I follow logically, we arrive back at bottom up localism. Beautiful. Though it’s daunting and deliberately demanding, it seems there’s much to nobly devote one’s life to in this space for the foreseeable future. Very exciting. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PSYCHOLOGY has contributed to nothing nonBS in its history (hence “IQ” shtick) -nothing real & unknown to grandmothers. PROBLEM: if we close psych depts in univ., would it be riskier since psychologists can cause WORSE damage in other jobs (drivers, pizza delivery, journalism)? Permalink 12:31 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@ArmandDAngour Whereas COMPERICLITY is having #skininthegame @nntaleb https://twitter.com/haggardhawks/status/1085503179528261633   Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@TheOppoMan @gillette It is immoral to claim virtue in order to make a buck! @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 6:09 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@VasMusca On IQ tests: “Take the sequence {1,2,3,4,x}. Only someone clueless about induction would answer 5 as if it were the only answer. And not only clueless, but obedient enough to want to think in a certain way.” Sad that they’re so used. – via @nntaleb: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:18 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@AutomaticEarth Debt Rattle January 16 2019 | EU approval of Roundup was based on docs straight out of Monsanto propaganda texts. Now Canada sees no risks in Roundup. We seriously risk losing this one. High time for new weapons. @nntaleb https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2019/01/debt-rattle-january-16-2019/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZLzTbKG5CO”>  pic.twitter.com/ZLzTbKG5CO Permalink 3:09 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@paulportesi The problem with modernity-abundance. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/YiddishProverbs/status/1085408117964312581   Permalink 10:23 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Yes – it has arrived. @ErwanLeCorre @MovNat pic.twitter.com/JYUmW2rx05 Permalink 4:08 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb As with GMOs & Pinker boy, I do not aim at changing the mind of bigots, IQ pple, psychologists, & pseudostatisticians. All I can do is expose them & change the mind of a certain intelligent audience. And it works. pic.twitter.com/iJcZfiIZ55 Permalink 12:38 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@alexandersquats This is textbook Lindy! https://twitter.com/Arch_Revival_/status/1085153000421756929   Permalink 10:30 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Which shows the circularity of IQ scores. Psychometrics is a scam, which shows in so many respects. pic.twitter.com/mIy3F9iVzf Permalink 10:19 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@FattestFatTony I ain’t “smart” enough to know what intelligence is, but I been around enough suckers to know what it ain’t. #ViaNegativa https://twitter.com/PersuasionRisng/status/1085206671612436480   Permalink 10:07 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Let’s start with an elementary QUIZ that the psychologists (& the mountebanks s.a. @charlesmurray) seem to be implicitly flunking. pic.twitter.com/KzxNoh8FTe Permalink 9:41 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@Gavelascos @nntaleb please tweet something about this pic.twitter.com/Ojorg97g8z Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@PersuasionRisng I’d point out that the top 25% of janitors score higher IQ than the bottom 25% of college professors. Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I’ve called people “imbeciles” for vastly more intelligent remarks. Permalink 7:17 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb CIRCULARITY If MDs and academics tend to have a “IQ” slightly informative (higher on a noisy average), it is largely because to get into schools you need to score on a test similar to “IQ”. Probability and statistics confuse the psychologist and other fools. https://twitter.com/jonathanwilson/status/1085190318662725632   Permalink 7:14 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s @ericsachsPhD was involved in getting “scientists” to sign studies ghostwritten by Monsanto. Documents show he gave marching orders to discredit our precautionary principle paper. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/Thibault_Lec/status/1085157467393327106   Permalink 5:32 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Sir Michael Atiyyah’s family and the Roman emperor Alexander Severus come from the same village in North Lebanon. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1084053084014370817   Permalink 2:05 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@normonics NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT @nature wtf is this pic.twitter.com/jq5IHukGY2 Permalink 1:35 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You cannot be more stupid than that. Monsanto (via its active shills) managed to make people believe SCIENCE = SCIENTISM Our paper(s) on precaution under dimensionality: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/antonioregalado/status/1084864808963444737   Permalink 12:11 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb These are the idiotic analogies to avoid: running speed is unidimensional in a fixed environment, intellect has yuuuuuuuge dimensionality in fast moving complex domains. Stop this race/attributes BS. https://twitter.com/darrenknewell/status/1084739524154912769   Permalink 7:42 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@oldlevantine Can’t wait!! The Thirty-Year Genocide: Turkey’s Destruction of Its Christian Minorities, 1… https://www.amazon.com/dp/067491645X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_lajpCb5ETACRM   via @amazon Permalink 5:37 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@Extrachelle Variant of the #Phoenician alphabet https://twitter.com/josh_lipson/status/1084629270436167680   Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb There was NO “substantive” correction to the IQ piece. Not even ONE single valid commentary by psychs. Asking Charles Murray for probabilistic points is no different from asking a Lower East Side astrologist to discuss relativistic quantum mechanics. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 3:30 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A friend, yesterday: ME “Long time. How are you doing?” HIM “Busy period. I have a lot to do. How about you?” ME “I am doing a lot, tons of things, because I have nothing to do.” https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1084592176925982720   Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@wtgowers James Watson (as in Crick &) has been stripped of certain honours at a NY lab thx to comments about race and intelligence. If you’re worried that he is simply stating uncomfortable truths, this great blog post should reassure you. https://gcbias.org/2018/03/14/polygenic-scores-and-tea-drinking/   Permalink 3:34 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@statwonk It’d be interesting to see this plotted by distance from where the IQ concept was invented. It’s probably just geographic distance between the test makers and takers. Permalink 3:29 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb C- Selects for obedient idiots who don’t get the problem of induction. (from a discussion with @paulboghossian ) pic.twitter.com/p2nGBhadMD Permalink 3:27 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb B- WHY THE ERROR RATE FOR ONE INDIVIDUAL IS YUUUGE pic.twitter.com/kinX6vxVNW Permalink 3:25 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Added 2 additional arguments in the IQ paper- A- WHY NATIONAL IQ IS A FRAUD https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sVoBz1WYvT”>  pic.twitter.com/sVoBz1WYvT Permalink 3:24 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists hope that I did not look at the literature. This, adjusted for padding, is astrology. pic.twitter.com/MsfLjCD0Qn Permalink 12:45 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb HEURISTIC: In any profession, when someone becomes rich and/or famous and starts socializing or attending organized gatherings w/the rich & famous & members of the IAND*, you can start counting the time until the big blowup. * International Association of Name Droppers Permalink 10:23 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@timjburrows @nntaleb has a lot to say about this. Averages quoted without variance, precision without confidence interval. List goes on. Worse, even if accompanying data were provided, majority of pop would be none the wiser. Permalink 10:11 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, what kind of magazine is Aeon? Thanks. Permalink 8:34 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 (cont, 2 ) Also learned that “PhD” researchers who BS about “IQ” (and RACE) don’t get that if IQ correlates to performance at 50% (the beeeeeesssst of cases), that it can only explain less than 16.7% of said performance. Idiots. Permalink 7:30 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 (cont) Also learned that “PhD” researchers who BS w/buzzwords don’t understand basic inference; the notion of variance. Worse, race idiots think that if a country has “IQ”=82 (assuming “IQ” is real), that ALL will have IQ=82. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082713050837336065   Permalink 7:26 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 Learned that psychologist involved in “IQ” fail to understand very basic notions they are using. Such as correlations. Not talking about higher dimensions “g”, nonlinear correlations, etc. Not talking abt quacks like Molyneux, but academic psychs. pic.twitter.com/aVQoCvh33H Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@Extrachelle They, all, deadlifted too. You can see it in their eyes. pic.twitter.com/YuXTSKK3vO Permalink 5:56 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Voila: a problem with PCAs that psychologists are not getting. Science is hard. #fooledbyrandomness https://twitter.com/Zusehrverkuerzt/status/1084388417474056192   Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- WHAT I LEARNED IN 2018 Learned from @Mangan150 that seed oil (Not #Lindy) is actually only tested in theory, & maybe be v. inflammatory. (Went nuts yesterday on Air France when I saw the smallprint for the “olive oil/balsamic” small bottle: 38% olive/37% sunflower.) Permalink 1:12 PM – 12 Jan 2019

@ClarkeMicah You don’t *use* the scientific method if you invent ailments and claim diagnoses on the basis of unfalsifiable subjective guesswork. https://twitter.com/nancydoylepsych/status/1084173391811276800   Permalink 11:55 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb What I learned in 2018: Learned from @Safaitic that written language often had nothing to do with spoken languages. The former later makes its way via the minority rule. It is conceivable that Jesus spoke a Galilean dialect not Aramaic, but used Aramaic for harangues. Permalink 7:51 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “left” is just as owned by weapon makers as the “right”. https://spectator.us/left-tulsi-gabbard/   Permalink 5:20 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb With @EmanuelDerman @jim_gatheral pic.twitter.com/yeLuVbRRij Permalink 3:45 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Sir Michael Atiyyah, British/GrecoPhoenician (Greek-Orthodox from North Lebanon), most decorated mathematician, charming man, RIP. Permalink 3:42 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I see some IQ “holes” in research. Please help if you are familiar with literature 1) Has anyone measured within individuals IQ test variance (you take the test, get different score) ? 2) Has anyone controlled for Chinese characters reading (as training for IQ tests)? Permalink 2:28 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Molyneux-Quack has same explanation for Mesopotamia that Nazis & Aryan supremacists gave for the decline of Modern Greeks: “They are different people” (illegal immigration +cousin marriages). Until came science; ancient DNA shows it’s just not true. https://twitter.com/mgpolitis/status/1084026383133741056   Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “cousin marriage” (CM) ad hoc to explain the degradation of Mesopotamia is crackpot: – Parsis, the MOST successful community ever (only~50k) encourage CM – Lebanese Greek Orth ban it, not Maronites & no differential in success – Was practice common earlier? (ergodicity) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082621586044264448   Permalink 1:09 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@Mangan150 The fakest of fake news. How anyone believes this is beyond me. Skipping breakfast even once a week might increase risk of type 2 diabetes https://abcn.ws/2AgRhTe   Permalink 7:32 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@EHSANI22 Genghis Khan valued Loyalty so highly that when when followers of his chief rival Jamukha handed him, rather than reward the men he had them all executed in front of the leader they had betrayed. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@FattestFatTony Looking for enemies is a suckers game but letting them find you is the oldest free marketing known to man… #Lindy Permalink 3:25 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@thackerpd 1/6 Emails shows #Monsanto orchestrated a behind the scenes retraction of Seralini’s paper on #GMOs. David Saltimiras w/ #Monsanto started “the last rites of Seralini” with an email to Sir Colin Berry. @NaomiOreskes @sejorg @TimothyAWise @industrydocs @sfoucart @fastlerner pic.twitter.com/cHnFBz9Jgu Permalink 4:55 AM – 11 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Pasquale, you are a professional probabilist and statistician. You are a scholar. Molyneux is a crank. Please do not engage him. Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychology. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1083354728023707648   Permalink 9:30 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@yaneerbaryam How can there be enough skin in the game to stop this? @nntaleb https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/former-ceo-pleads-guilty-to-fentanyl-spray-kickback-scheme/2019/01/09/f25d3cea-1452-11e9-ab79-30cd4f7926f2_story.html   Permalink 7:26 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #daoofcapital #SunTzu #TheArtofWar pic.twitter.com/dY9BogrsWo Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@thackerpd How did #Monsanto try to spin the carcinogenicity of #glyphosate and attack @IARCWHO? Documents show they hired a PR firm to plant op-eds targeting Washington Post & USA Today https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Benbrook-expert-report-November-2018.pdf   @NaomiOreskes @NaomiStarkman @TimothyAWise @industrydocs @sfoucart @fastlerner ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/A573FTfAr1″>  pic.twitter.com/A573FTfAr1 Permalink 4:54 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “Daf Yomi” or occasional Daf is the best way to learn …Eastern Aramaic. And there is no better way than to listen to a Syrian Rabbi such as rabbi David Mansour. https://twitter.com/JYuter/status/1083327159752671232   Permalink 3:41 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb After 4 days of diluvial rain from angry Zeus, Baal & other gods, stuck at home running Monte Carlo genetics simulations while eating stuffed grape leaves and busting IQ and race idiots on Twitter, finally the storm ended … and a lot of snow covering Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/0vWKtHNBDV Permalink 2:12 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb *Footnote: clearly I don’t insult not ALL psychologists, just those who put people & races in”idiot” IQ boxes or similar things…) Permalink 12:59 PM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists use “IQ” to politely put people & entire races in boxes with the label “idiots”, and stick them there for a lifetime. They ruin people’s careers and potentials. Politely. I call psychologists (& IQ mountebanks) idiots to their face. Not politely. Permalink 5:23 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This Q is the fraudulent type psychologists give you. You NEVER interview someone w/o some background credentials w/far more information than IQ, a measure made by low “I” psychologists. In the REAL WORLD there is something called a CV! https://twitter.com/rammbling/status/1082986472834138112   Permalink 5:13 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NEXT BS PSYCHOLOGY BUSTING project: Count how many of these “biases” are errors or we have the wrong model. E.g. “sunk cost” not an error if you use P/L as info from environment. Heuristic in #SkininTheGame: if not present in Erasmus, it doesn’t exist Remember Psych is BS #Lindy pic.twitter.com/Iv6eRtNLT4 Permalink 3:42 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb They designed my technical book cover How to Design a Great Book Cover by @TuckerMax https://link.medium.com/zhZGp7uSkT   Permalink 3:26 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Typo 16.67% pic.twitter.com/nau8cTHdy0 Permalink 2:39 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Version 2: turns out that the IQ story is vastly worse than I initially thought. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1eIasgDkqs”>  pic.twitter.com/1eIasgDkqs Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ FACTS The highest correlation IQ to “performance” (with yuuuge massaging) is .5 [not eliminating the resemblance between said performance and test] The pick up is only 13% Psychologists are kluuuueless about some basics. pic.twitter.com/ZOR9igEEDp Permalink 12:07 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (very very simple) IQ is said to correlate at .5 with performance. You hire an employee with above average IQ. What is the probability of above average performance? What is the probability if there were 0 correlation with performance? Assume Normal distr. Permalink 10:57 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb To understand Wittgenstein’s ruler: Any MEASURE of IQ or intellectual abilities or anything related to intellect that does not give #Molyneux a score in the bottom 8% of the population is patently a wrong measure. pic.twitter.com/gGtokyl2Fu Permalink 4:04 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@TeslaAircraft This is exactly @nntaleb’s dictatorship of the small minority (which I think is great in this case). We only stay at hotels with chargers, but people without EVs don’t care if the hotel has one or not. This phenomenon accelerates adoption. @elonmusk https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   https://twitter.com/thehoff525/status/1082328699737960449   Permalink 2:05 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is actually much worse when you consider that Meds were extensions of Caucasus/Persia/Anatolia; Greeks were much much ethnically closer to Persians, Assyrians & Phoenicians than to “Europeans” as the demarcation is fake. https://twitter.com/GhostVirusX/status/1082756180814979072   Permalink 1:54 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, if one of the variables is fat tailed… Always a problem when pple use mechanistic regressions without knowing probability. Further, THERE IS NO BASIS FOR NATIONAL IQ. Even if there were differences in averages, VARIANCE swamps the local information. Science is hard pic.twitter.com/viK5meA1yf Permalink 12:51 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Clint Eastwood w jeddé Saliba Skandar l mesh3ir by @jadabdala https://link.medium.com/gl2C152PjT   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Which brings us to a statistical Quiz. What is the distribution of the regression slope? @GarettJones I will be nice to you because you deadlift. But you need to understand the ERROR rate of a regression slope. Otherwise, NO regression. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/VKem5V6lWm Permalink 12:13 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb STATISTICAL BUSTING TRAINING 101 How many data points (sampled within the same data) do you need to add to change the slope from positive to negative? @GarettJones, this is no longer called a regression. This is called intellectual fraud. pic.twitter.com/PcjBqRVKKd Permalink 10:58 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Time to make public what we’ve been laughing quietly about. We figured out the salaries of some of the bitter IQ psychologists in this debate (public records from state U). They earn less than NY Uber drivers. https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1076933024439250945   Permalink 10:52 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “The four most influential moderns: Darwin, Marx, Freud, and (the productive) Einstein were scholars but not academics. It has always been hard to do genuine – and no perishable – work within institutions” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Serious question. Have you ever done a regression before? Permalink 10:14 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@The_Cyrenian THIS IS OFFICIALLY MY FAVOURITE TWEET OF ALL TIME. There is nothing more beautiful, nothing more satisfying, than seeing a real intellectual expose the fake-intellectual and closet-racist that is Stefan Molyneux. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082607889309683713   Permalink 10:13 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb COUNTRY IQ This may not give you much information (nonhomogeneous migration patterns) but it certainly tells you that “country IQ” and genetics is a scam. pic.twitter.com/JLqxqWF0Hu Permalink 9:11 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOW an intelligent question. Cultural changes, mostly accelerated in past 200 y. https://twitter.com/alanizBTC/status/1082630721779523586   Permalink 5:33 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1) No, it was not Ghengis Khan who sacked Baghdad but his grandson Holagho 2) That they killed all the locals is fiction (from balance X vs Y chr) 3) Only someone like PrimatebrainedMolyneux can believe 1)Asian IQ genetic superiority & 2) degradation in IQ from male replacement Permalink 5:18 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I do not debate charlatans. I EXPOSE them to others. Permalink 4:55 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This inbreading/cousin marriage theory is another crackpot by IQ-genes-race pple who NEED to find genetic (not cultural) degradation. First effect of inbreeding is systematic diseases. & you see MORE among Ashkenazis so stop the IQ link & crank-science. https://twitter.com/Titus_Pullo55/status/1082620263697661952   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Do you fucking think I am stupid enough to not check Babylonian genetics? Permalink 4:37 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame dictates not talking about an idea (such as #SkinintheGame) shallowly, w/o a deep investment, here is my recitation of Hammurabi’s code in ancient Babylonian (Akkadian) w/proper Semitic gutturals. Yes, I know enough Babylonian to argue Molyneux is a fraud in it. pic.twitter.com/CYCHTrhS1p Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Mesopotamia Invented Metallurgy, Agriculture, Writing, Sailing, theWheel, Chemisty, Pharma, Astronomy, LAW,(co)algebra, Algor, Calendar, Maps, Metrics… Maintained techno superiority for 4600/5000y of history. So fraudster @stefanmolyneux now arbiter of their inferior “IQ”. pic.twitter.com/uGxSiIlJ0q Permalink 4:00 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychology. https://twitter.com/chsommers/status/1082397016821501953   Permalink 2:03 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The ONLY test of intelligence that counts is to see if the person detects Wittgenstein’s ruler situations: 1) When you use a ruler to measure the table, you are also using the table to measure the ruler. 2) The more unexpected the measurement, the more you apply W’s ruler. Permalink 12:51 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild Nassim Taleb’s recent attack on psychology and IQ “science” emerged too late for me to work into this essay, but it could be easily incorporated. If his campaign surprised you, politically or intellectually, maybe this will help. https://www.firstthings.com/article/2019/02/taleb-the-philosopher   Permalink 4:29 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 6) But the grand doyen of Statistical BS Busting is the great @spyrosmakrid who started in the 1980s! He is the M in the M-competitions. He was 10y early figuring out the scam w/hypertension treatment. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1081434668476612608   Permalink 3:36 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5) BS Busting by probability people seems to have become a specialty. We now have an army! https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1082390431344852992   Permalink 3:20 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4) @HarryDCrane is making evidence a better place. LEARN FROM HIM. Remember that there is no scientific “evidence” w/o statistical significance. Meanwhile, I am focusing on the Fat Tails aspect as it mushrooms the problem of naive & pseudo-empiricism. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1082079005505916933   Permalink 2:34 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@Wurux @nntaleb https://twitter.com/UnwobblingPivot/status/1081632438663761920   Permalink 1:28 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb “European” is meaningless a genetic term. Western Eurasia is the correct one. Permalink 1:13 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb First meeting of the localist society for the promotion of the Neo-Canaanite language in a Starbucks near Byblos. Thank you everyone for the spontaneous gathering! pic.twitter.com/HlCrlSfxdi Permalink 8:57 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3) My problem is with charlatans such as @michaelshermer with their promotion of “empirical evidence” in the name of “science” –not aware of spurious correlations, exactly the opposite of statistical inference. They argue from “facts” based on above spuriousness. Permalink 8:42 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @AOC @ronpaul #paygo #paytoday #freelemonade pic.twitter.com/Fa6zGnRphY Permalink 5:33 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wrong to say 1300 y ago. Lebanon spent 500 y under Ottomans who maintained most aspects of Byzantine Empire. They kept ethnicities separate, under self administration (Millet system), so the Rum Millet (i.e. “Roman”) were same citizenship: Greece, Anatolia, Romania, East Med. Permalink 2:43 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@coryklippsten The last two weeks of his anti-IQ push have been primarily about ending the practice of using the tests for anything OTHER than its original purpose, which was to identify people with low intelligence. The correlation between IQ and success disappears above 100. Permalink 5:36 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@normonics This guy @sapinker did not address the critique of NNT because he probably does not understand it. But it is straightforward statistics: 1) interarrival times are too long to make any strong claims and 2) a stationary distribution with alpha implying NO MEAN best explain the data https://twitter.com/52_insights/status/1081910305477808128   Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here I explain. It’s not that correlation is not causation, but that correlation is not correlation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 4:15 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Let me give the most concentrated lecture about statistics/Data Science. Statistics is about avoiding the mistake below. The rest is (more or less complicated) footnotes. pic.twitter.com/xLYPE6pcAf Permalink 3:57 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness, she took communion there, which is beyond mere attendance. On paper, the Greek-Orthodox church technically bans us from taking communion in any other church. But the rule is not enforced and most people don’t know about it. Permalink 11:37 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Hilaaaarious! Exactly as predicted. Within HOURS. You can play a BS vendor like a violin. pic.twitter.com/vewi6O2igd Permalink 11:31 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@BLebnene Sorry for the back and forth. We have final settled for a meet up with @nntaleb tomorrow Monday, January 7, 2019. The meeting will be held in Jbeil (Byblos.) We will confirm the venue shortly; but it will be somewhere near the old souk. (New Yorker Cup for example) Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exaaaaaaaactly as predicted by previous 2 tweets in thread! Only half a day later. You block a psychologist or some similar small time BS vendor, they call you arrogant/egomaniac and will make all the mistakes in the book. Which BS vendor should I tick-off next? pic.twitter.com/O00CFDEbFo Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Salafis managed to get a Sunni Muslim Lebanese woman politician to apologize for attending church service, something that has been part of the fabric of Lebanese society. Result of Saudi funding of intolerance over the past 50y. Will happen in the West. pic.twitter.com/6hs5jhZ7K3 Permalink 10:20 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I think Pinker survives on statistical ignorance. Nothing else. https://twitter.com/jacyreese/status/1081950190972604416   Permalink 8:48 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@semacks In which Pinker completely ignores that @nntaleb published a paper that shatters the entire “violence is in decline” thesis and waves his hands about black swans more generally. Taleb’s paper actually covered the substance of Pinker’s argument: https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=851091091009083095089127115110075099034023058067019062072066004100009103081023097123034016097101060099003106115098003095116092026058012038004029004118103111073028059062024121067073124072085091092069010121104097107075021088001008095027011086119103085&EXT=pdf   https://twitter.com/52_insights/status/1081910305477808128   Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@Spfannenschmidt f(x) is not x Primary lesson from #RWRI Permalink 6:18 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why one needs an IQ test by some unintelligent rent-seeking psychologist to see if one is good at math when mathematical abilities are DIRECTLY and rapidly observable. https://twitter.com/zach_pinto/status/1081739672936693760   Permalink 6:14 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 debate told Mountebank @CharlesMurray that in France, Protestants & Jews were ~1% of population, had ~ share of Nobels & wealth. Are French Protestants a different race? Minorities everywhere fare disproportionately well. Disentangling genes from culture impossible. Permalink 5:00 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That fraud Molyneux made similar racist remarks linking me to the IQ of a presumed “ethnicity”. Alt-Right pple tend to suffer from clinically low levels of intelligence. Incidentally, for these cranks obsessing over race-IQ, East Med genetics haven’t changed since the Bronze age pic.twitter.com/qoSHaeRjJa Permalink 4:42 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Please don’t spread the information. Permalink 6:59 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It showed 84½ . Any problem with that? Permalink 6:47 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb When I went to finance, I discovered that those who *tawk* about money were the ones who didn’t have it, couldn’t make it, or wanted a lot more but couldn’t get it. Same problem with IQ. Those who insist on measuring IQ are … the most stupid. Permalink 6:17 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb His “country IQ” (U=used for racemongering) comes from education (test scores), which tends to FOLLOW not CAUSE devlpment Mr @GarettJones did you look at the dynamics? Countries like Korea/Switzerland had low literacy/education, got rich, THEN high education… see #Antifragile https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1081697009155768320   Permalink 5:55 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Income is not a measure of performance. But it is the LEAST nonsensical for analysis where things wash out. Plus I can use $5 to buy a meal. You cannot “eat” IQ points, SAT points, or vague academic notions such as prestige, rank, had picture taken with the Queen, etc. https://twitter.com/andrewronmo/status/1081714204090875904   Permalink 4:59 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Even when there is correlation between IQ and performance, it is SWAMPED by noise. Is it me or that psychologists have NO notion of noise? pic.twitter.com/pvENuD8oD8 Permalink 4:46 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Fat Tony Quotient = Intelligence Permalink 3:37 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb National average IQ is BS Permalink 3:27 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is called Intelligence. https://twitter.com/steveroh/status/1081691743576342528   Permalink 3:21 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ may correlate (noisily) to Income because of the circularity/employee effect. But it does not correlate to wealth. What’s in a name? “I” should be removed. PsycholobSers have the wrong definition of IQ. Permalink 3:20 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@NonMeek The first #Offshorecomic linked to @nntaleb’s [ https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39  ] ist fertig. Stay tuned for more. #IQ is for obedient losers [part 1 of x]. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sFnlgFVHHY”>  pic.twitter.com/sFnlgFVHHY Permalink 10:02 AM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb FRIDAY QUIZ (rephrased for clarity) pic.twitter.com/kSb9AnykLY Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb When someone refers to psychology “results” for backup, ask: what is the SINGLE significant result psychologists have discovered that is both correct and not well known (and used) by ancients, used car salespeople, magicians, & swindlers. Ignore psychologists. #Lindy. Permalink 9:53 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Founders of statistical “science” were mathematicians (probability). They understood the properties (& conditions) for tools they designed. But users of stats are clueless parrots blabbering words like “correlation”. NEVER teach statistics to those who don’t know probability. Permalink 6:11 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this fellow @DegenRolf that all these contradictions are telling us is that variance of results from the IQ measure increases with IQ. Not a good thing. Please explain it slowly to him. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1081118653737824256   Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Years ago I waged a war against “Value at Risk”, an equally bogus measurement; like IQ, had a bunch of nerds clinging to it because “we have nothing better”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=78&v=6QiiFSOrJhQ   Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Yes, indeed, systematically getting rid of people by blocking/muting. https://twitter.com/angiejchelala/status/1081169805355483137   Permalink 5:01 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That’s why social science failed to get convexity/#Antifragility (or something as elementary as Jensen’s Inequality). https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1080800546813034499   Permalink 4:54 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb First blunder of 2019: Bought a Medieval Byzantine bio of Saint Symeon the Theologian thinking it was Saint Symeon the Stylite στυλίτης. Took me a while to realize it. pic.twitter.com/A7JSjcZNsE Permalink 3:59 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@YiannisArch This is the dorkiest response I’ve ever read. All praise king Taleb @nntaleb. And welcome to all his new fans who are surprised to see *high IQ* academics unable to understand a via negativa argument. https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1080978692250034176   Permalink 2:02 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@mrraoofi @nntaleb has a talent in procuring enmity of charlatans and/or the ignorant. But I had never seen so much negative reaction to his previous works as to the present one about IQ. Everybody seems to be screaming and crying. Well-done sir! Permalink 10:51 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, can someone find in this promo by propagandist @SteveStuWill info: – How many of these 1% fared “well” compared to 2%, 3%, .1%, etc? – Variance for 1% compared to other brackets – Any HARD correlation (not words) s.a. $ income? Ευχαριστώ πολύ! https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1080856310063788032   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@FamedCelebrity I think the reason people get so angry over the IQ (test score) debate is akin to the heat in evolution arguments. That is, they are not interested in the subject matter per se, but in its supposed implications. Permalink 4:48 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have the illusion that I am writing this critique of IQ for them. No. Never argue theology w/a Salafi Sheikh. Psychologists are the losers in & out of campus. I am writing to expose the lack of rigor of these “metrics” to “intelligent” scientists & Fat Tonies. Permalink 2:40 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The best map fallacy in The Technical Incerto, Vol 2. Geoff Miller is clueless. pic.twitter.com/bs4oqMRTVp Permalink 2:22 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Replaced the thread with this article https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 1:39 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@AhsanDeliri I find it amusing to see that @nntaleb took down the IQ Industrial complex not by defining what it is, but simply highlighting what it isn’t. It isn’t science, or predictive. Stripped of all that, Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare. Permalink 1:30 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Hello @StuartJRitchie, can you answer the following? Feel free to ask the geniuses in psychometrics. IQ below 100 correlates at 90% with performance IQ above 100 correlates at 10% with performance What’s the correlation IQ to performance? Permalink 1:21 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/jA5Nhgn1Xn Permalink 9:40 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/eyBiiUhL5g Permalink 8:14 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb HINT: partial correlation includes a statement about the mean. (No psycholophaster-psychometrician saw something that elementary) pic.twitter.com/1zmoUX3ylD Permalink 8:11 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Assume to simplify that both IQ and performance are Gaussian. Permalink 5:22 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A Quiz for IQ “researchers”. Something elementary. pic.twitter.com/tqhdt9CDDU Permalink 5:04 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I don’t randomly call people “imbeciles” publicly. Only when they claim “someone doesn’t know what he is talking about ” when it turns out that they don’t know what THEY are talking abt. Singal is done. He got pretty much everything wrong, from conscientiousness to correlation pic.twitter.com/DsKZmpl3Ro Permalink 3:09 PM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 12- Year in Review Someone got my paper on forecasing and vs the “methods” of @NateSilver538. I will explain the paper in a Youtube minimooc. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 2:30 PM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb (To echo Haldane, one ounce of correct algebra is worth more than a century of verbalistic statisticopsycholophastering). https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can you go give unsollicited advice to someone else who care about your opinion? Permalink 7:25 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Need to add “not the same ting”, x vs f(x) https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1080451498067271680   Permalink 5:17 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Starting 2019 with a paper in … genetics I worked on while arguing with the IQ idiots. pic.twitter.com/PvZ90fu6Yu Permalink 4:58 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Just realized there is list of terms summarizing the INCERTO. Thanks! https://twitter.com/ArturoHerrero/status/1080439849491070976   Permalink 4:55 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@HectorIlias Cicero on IYIs and Romans vs Greeks. I’m enjoying the read a lot thanks to having read @nntaleb’s INCERTO before. pic.twitter.com/Kc9gGAgCP3 Permalink 4:00 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Still can’t get it. It DOES NOT “measure” abilities. https://twitter.com/miketranchina/status/1080277104774635520   Permalink 5:39 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I just published https://medium.com/@nntaleb/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NEVER talk about correlation 1) if you are a psychologist [they are klueless] 2) when there is nonlinearity such as IQ and performance. You can have 80% correlation with “performance” when it is 0 for positive performance, & high for negative. Compare to “SAT” and see the BS. pic.twitter.com/E7fQ9jL2iM Permalink 1:04 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb No. https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1080195496407388165   Permalink 12:57 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man Happy New Year! #blackswanman #theblackswanman #newyearsresolution #fightthefed #jiujitsu #daoofcapital #antifragile pic.twitter.com/0Bm9t7K1Ah Permalink 12:51 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Be-strayné (Happy New Year in Lebanese) Odds are, from its pronunciation, it came from *Estreine*, medieval French. As I cannot find it in Sabir and Med Lingua Franca, high probability it came from the Crusaders. @QifaNabki @PhDniX @Safaitic pic.twitter.com/LvoZEfObSl Permalink 7:23 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb No, “IQ” tests aren’t even close to what intelligence means, even excluding decision-making (wisdom). https://twitter.com/nietzsches_tash/status/1080085347680149505   Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Grateful for 2018. Graduated (again), grew my library and spent quality time thinking about risk taking. The peak has been the incredible #RWRI week, led by @nntaleb, #raphaeldouadi and @financequant. To all my RWRI friends, I wish you a year of convex optionalities Permalink 3:09 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Happy 2019 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you highly deserve but were too humble, too thoughtful, and too realistic to dare to wish for it. Permalink 5:40 PM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- Year in Review 2018: Started replying to intrusive, lenghty & boring emails in Italian, especially when the sender is not Italian. 2019: Will try Greek or Latin. Permalink 1:32 PM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I will be even more intransigent. Repeating thrice. Ciao https://twitter.com/jonhaidt/status/1079826085934714881   Permalink 11:47 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@vidythatte If you’re a fan of @nntaleb & his tweets (like me) here are his top tweets from 2018 https://www.tweet-rewind.com/nntaleb.html   Permalink 10:56 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can understand someone saying “listen, I love strangers but I am more comfortable w/my nationality, shared values” (homophily) or “neighbors get along better than rommates” (fractal localism). But making “others” genetically “inferior” using IQ “science” is quite sinister. Permalink 10:53 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL problem solved Bi-Strayné in Lebanese from: bi-Strenua or Strenia, Roman a goddess of the new year https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1079786887273959424   Permalink 9:14 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@paulportesi This is perfect. This is so funny. Nassim’s sense of humor is great. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079585825506115585   Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@Safaitic Thanks you! There is a consensus that by the 10th century the language of Arabic poetry (the qasidah) was far removed from virtually all vernaculars. Mutanabbi certainly composed in an Arabic with the vocalizations in your post but he probably didn’t grow up speaking that way. Permalink 6:42 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@NonMeek This year’s final #Offshorecomic. A tribute to the best Tweetstorm ever @nntaleb vs the journo. #IQ #success Happy new year, y’all! For more visit http://www.offshorecomic.com   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cE8Etk2XhX”>  pic.twitter.com/cE8Etk2XhX Permalink 6:05 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb F***king hypocrite; Molyneux @StefanMolyneux thinks he can manage to keep posting strings showing lower “IQ” for Africans + heritability of IQ, catering to a Nordist supremacist following… …yet claim this is not racist so he doesn’t get banned from social media. Hypocrite. pic.twitter.com/LajdHGUepl Permalink 5:44 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intelligent “current IQ” test is one that maximum number of successful pple (Gell-Mann, Feynman, Buffett, plumbers happy w/their lives, Musk, Umb. Eco) ace, & maximum number of unsucessful ones (bureaucrats, journalists, pple in jail) flunk, revised as environment changes. Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@rockwell_n2 I believe Taleb’s point is that we don’t understand the world well enough to define intelligence. What seemed intelligent in the year *blank* seemed incredibly unintelligent years later. Permalink 11:10 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain how the psycholophasters got the IQ of Goethe, Einstein? By retro-testing? And stats for IQ of math/physicists? Selfreporting bias? I don’t know one mathematician who knows his/her IQ. Only IQ of physicist we know is Feynman’s (126 as he fluncked Mensa). Permalink 7:29 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb That was what I tried to convey to that hawker-mountebank Charles Murray @charlesmurray when he wrote his gerrymandering book on how the “West” was great, redefining West as whatever has been recently successful. Permalink 5:25 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb THE SUMMARY “”IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shuffleE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, whi []” #SkininTheGame #Lindy #antifragile #FooledbyRandomness https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1076845397795065856.html   Permalink 4:48 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I find these comparisons by @StefanMolyneux insensitive, silly, and failing basic introspective recursion. Someone from Babylon/Ancient Egypt/The Med/China could have, at some point, made similar comparisons entailing Northern Europeans. Then look what happened after 1600. pic.twitter.com/LJbUCqNwo2 Permalink 4:41 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2018 – thanks to @nntaleb – was a an amazing limit related to both probability and calculus: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2018/06/27/a-fascinating-limit-to-share-with-both-calculus-and-probability-students/  . #math #mathchat Permalink 3:09 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Some overlap with the RWRI program –but much more technical. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 2:23 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An association for losers (of the Birkensock footwear category) whose major skill is scoring on a particular test. https://twitter.com/Connectitecture/status/1079501400281935872   Permalink 2:21 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY du JOUR A question for Maestro @Safaitic: how much of the diacriticals are original to Mutanabbi? Do you accept the idea that poets used a parallel language to the spoken one? https://twitter.com/almotanabby/status/1079489259814506497   Permalink 1:49 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Was it Tversky who said that all they were trying to do is formalize the corpus of used car salespeople. What shd replicate in psychology is what tricksters, illusionists, marketers, advertising pple, jilted lovers & crooks have known forever. #Lindy @ole_b_peters @stanley223 https://twitter.com/Stanley223/status/1079489173621481472   Permalink 1:40 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 32- WRAPPING UP – I said psychology was BS because something wrong between 50-100% of the time is the very definition of bul***st (a lie is wrong ~100%). – Selection of traits “tested” by IQ require predictability of future environment. – Will put everything in short article. Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- Year in Review One Tweetstorm countered close to a century of intelligence metrification (“IQ”) by nerds, & thousands of psychologists (& eugenists) who use probabilistic equations without knowing what is behind… One single Tweetstorm. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079239238053490688   Permalink 7:32 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I never made that point. Never linked “IQ” (which I didn’t consider a “measure”) to evolution. I blocked Razib Khan @razibkhan because he claimed there were “flaws” in our GMO risk arguments but could not produce any. https://twitter.com/fitchett_adam/status/1079375852079669249   Permalink 7:24 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@MorrisseyHelena I’m all for more localism and devolved powers to regions & counties. And they are lovely flags! ⁦@Telegraph⁩ pic.twitter.com/zxPcAlgpXo Permalink 4:04 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@imleslahdin I paraphrased everything in Python (using google colaboratory). I might have misunderstood though (I tinkered a lot). Please correct if there is any mistake it’s an open notebook as a github gist (you can edit and run). https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/gist/Nydhal/2bb2831b3713dade324af65a3aabb88a   Permalink 9:06 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 31- Technical point: why the PCA behind the “g” is tooooooootally BS when correlation is not constant. Their math is entertainemnet. And indeed psycholophasters DON’T get it. This is the shape of the proof, more details to fill in. pic.twitter.com/MnLxxB1kMN Permalink 8:54 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why the “g” is BS as correlation is not constant pic.twitter.com/5rs5lFVyku Permalink 8:50 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why I am blocking @sentientist Because of course if you disagree with psychology there is something wrong with you. pic.twitter.com/eW1lsL0v6s Permalink 4:03 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What @cshalizi intuited is in the variation of the PCA for a different realization; this is vastly worse. The PCA version of this https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Severe problem w/psychologists. Deary doesn’t know how PCAs work (elementary misunderstanding of probability). But if you don’t agree with their metric there is something wrong with YOU. Popper called psychs charlatans. When you disagree, there’s something in your childhood… https://twitter.com/sentientist/status/1079107954027057152   Permalink 2:13 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is an example of what the brilliant Cosma @cshalizi intuited behing the failure of “g”. And the SAT is DIRECTLY covered by IQ tests from overlap. A low IQ “correlates” with low SAT, but a low SAT doesn’t “correlate” with low IQ. Now do that with other measures covered by IQ https://twitter.com/IdentityWithin/status/1079120246693416960   Permalink 2:02 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb DATA SCIENCE TRICK DU JOUR: How to make a random covariance/correl matrix that is positive definite? pic.twitter.com/rU4n0LBuij Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@normonics People who have learned to think in the RWRI @nntaleb style have uncommon clarity around systemic risk. It is not “difficult”, but generally requires a complete cognitive re-frame. Most unwilling or unable due to prior commitments of identity. Natural for @GuruAnaerobic https://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/1078779929670619137   Permalink 6:15 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A vector of unknown dimensions. If we knew the dimensions we would be able to predict the future. (Popper/Hayek) https://twitter.com/srini_sateesh/status/1079016017672585218   Permalink 6:13 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- Year in Review People stopped giving me the wrong awards, honoris causa, etc., awards by BS vendors to resumé-building BS vendors (asinus asimum fricat). Here is the real thing. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1053256560758218752   Permalink 4:39 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@amconmag Trump “must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trump-scores-breaks-generals-50-year-war-record-syria-mattis-dunford/   Permalink 4:30 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am allergic to verbalistic Pinker-style talk abt something like “correlation”, “variance” w/o knowing what it REALLY means. Hence EVERY statistical concept needs to be rederived ab ovo. With IQ, 1000s of psychologist so far seem to NOT understand their own statistics! https://twitter.com/blackorwa/status/1078972980997341184   Permalink 4:25 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb How PCAs degrade under Fat Tails. I share code for everything in book. Since then function Random[ ] became RandomVariate[Distribution,{c,r}] pic.twitter.com/ngH1GEMKCG Permalink 3:37 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb They use a vertical form of Nestorian Syriac. pic.twitter.com/8rKA128bwn Permalink 6:07 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mongolians write in the Nestorian alphabet, still today. https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1078822762343469056   Permalink 5:32 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I asked a specific question Mr @rjhaier, whether where tweets 17,18, 27, 29, 30, 7, 6, to select a few, correpond to “recycled” old anti-intelligence research, Charlatans talk: “we are aware of the shortcomings”… or “do you have better to offer?” https://twitter.com/rjhaier/status/1078699552515866626   Permalink 3:36 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Preparing for a new fall course at NYU @nyutandon called “Data science, Fragility, & Extremes”, Mondays 6-8 PM. About 50% is from my new technical book, 50% themes within Data science. pic.twitter.com/rZ1fd2l9JT Permalink 7:58 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- Year in Review (cont) To be ethical in 2019, do each of the following repeatedly. a- Invite someone who has no friends to lunch b- Make a rent-seeking BS vendor uncomfortable (if you can, really uncomfortable) c- Help someone in needs of funds but is not asking for help Permalink 6:13 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Mr Haier,@rjhaier, “intelligence researcher” Explain where tweets 17,18, 27, 29, 30, 7, 6, to select a few, correpond to “recycled” old anti-intelligence research, if you can of course. https://twitter.com/rjhaier/status/1078339660303163392   Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@MDiPaolaMD Nothing tests real world ambiguous situations with no perfect answer except real world ambiguous situations with no perfect answer Permalink 4:10 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merci Editions Belles Lettres @BellesLettresEd pour ce dictionnaires de françois médiéval! Beaucoup plus riche que le français moderne … et le secret de Fréderic Dard. le dictionnaire est fait…par Takeshi Matsumura, de l’université de… Tokyo. pic.twitter.com/GAw7Ztr4b1 Permalink 3:36 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 30- Traders get it right away: hypothetical P/L from “simulated” strategies don’t count. Performance=actual. “IQ”: What goes in people’s head or reaction to a screen image doesn’t exist (except via negativa). And correlations in psych papers don’t count. https://twitter.com/emcilveen/status/1078475464522563585   Permalink 6:30 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Performance Real world performance https://twitter.com/ramonarobot/status/1078451554129080320   Permalink 4:47 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb IQ shd penalize some perceptional errors. IQ should accommodate perception of nonlinearity to aggregate payoffs: @yaneerbaryam picked it up right away “the mean-field error”, he said. But simplest problem is that measurements are cooked and terms like “correlation” don’t apply. https://twitter.com/davidboxenhorn/status/1078429267472646144   Permalink 3:20 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@HarryDCrane Major misunderstanding of statistics/p-values by scientists & statisticians: even if individuals control error rate exactly and correctly, we’d still have replication crisis. Cliff notes: RSS (.005 proposal) makes no sense, won’t work Long version: see https://youtu.be/vk9H246GrNQ?t=744   https://twitter.com/dougvk/status/1078353813642317824   Permalink 1:18 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1078279012068327424   Permalink 1:15 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 29- A counter by a proponent of IQ w/what “g” offers best: explains ~½ the variance w.r. to academics. No “science” shd boast a measure that fails ~50%! Worse: counting circularity, hacking, the measure shd be wrong ~ 80% of the time! This is … fraud! https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022440518301031?via%3Dihub   Permalink 1:11 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@Stefano6412 Il latino e’ una lingua spietata con chi cerca di vendere aria fritta. Permalink 11:55 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@dittoaway Sorry but that is not how IQ testing works. Trial and error won’t work because you aren’t told the correct answer. Permalink 9:11 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 29- Note Charles Murray, @charlesmurray, is responding to these with series of ad hominem attacks (I mean really ad hominem). I will retaliate by sticking to the science. Permalink 8:33 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Charles Murray, you shd at least have the decency to index the person you are trying to slander: And this is the background about your friend Harris. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967892546461556737   Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 28-CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY A flaw in the attempts to identify “intelligence” genes. You can get monogenic traits, not polygenic (note: additive monogenic used in animal breeding is NOT polygenic). The problem to some extent affect the “g” in IQ studies as it is multifactorial. pic.twitter.com/87weAlkplt Permalink 8:01 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #YellowVests #localism #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/IFU6wXcdx8 Permalink 5:18 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Isaac Levi, philosopher and probabilist, intellectual giant, RIP Few people in the past 2000 years went as deep into probability as you did. It was greatest luck to have met you. Ad vitam aeternam. pic.twitter.com/2iuU6jAuiC Permalink 4:56 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Machine Learning and Fat Tails Transcribed my M4 lecktchur @spyrosmakrid: the new nonlinear regression more effective than the old one pic.twitter.com/9JYQEzwqal Permalink 1:19 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As Karl Popper said about psychoanalysis they always come up for an explanation for failure, then ad-hoc the crap out of it. Or blame you for not knowing psychology or having narcissistic tendencies or problems with your mother. Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can always leave psychology and get a real job. Permalink 12:42 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 27- Technical note I omitted: If IQ is Gaussian *by construction* & if performance is fat tailed, then either correlation betw IQ & performance doesn’t exist or is uninformational. It will show a finite number *in sample* but doesn’t exist statistically. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 11:56 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 26- I mute/block all pple comparing IQ to a physical measure s.a. height of basketball players. IQ as presented is NOT a measure. Reminiscent of risk charlatans insisting on selling “value at risk” & RiskMetrics saying “it’s the best measure”. Metrics need to have properties. Permalink 10:29 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an asymmetry that indicates most people who believe in IQ as a measure have a low IQ’ (some “real” intelligence metric). https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1077991832741601280   Permalink 10:22 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@ddelruss Ethically (per Taleb) observing a wrong and doing nothing is to perpetuate it (I forget which book, probably SITG). So when we observe misuse of metrics, broken models, dishonest arguments, etc, we are obligated to identify them. It’s ethics, not emotion – he’s not miffed. Permalink 8:12 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 25- For IQ idiots too slow: -If a 70 IQ is certain to fail but a 150 IQ has a significant probability of NOT succeeding, the ASYMMETRY has SEVERE statistical conseq. & “correlation” is BS term. -If variance is lower at some states & higher at others,”Bell Curve” is an illusion. Permalink 7:14 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan Man told you, Donaldo, that if you own the stock market on the way up, you will also own it on the way down. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1050766705667047426   Permalink 6:21 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I deleted my tweets ag. @davidgraeber (the only tweets I’ve deleted in past years since autodelete). I wanted to convey a strong message, prevent arbitrary petitions (having myself been the victim of a Monsanto initiated petition), not weaken him. Permalink 4:41 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 24- Note 2: “IQ selects for pattern recognition, essential for functioning in modern society”. Unfiltered pattern recognition makes you #FooledbyRandomness, to overnarrate, see false positives. Economics PhDs blow up in business. “IQ” good for @davidgraeber’s “BS jobs” Permalink 4:29 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nickpahountis pic.twitter.com/4bRHfCjgsv Permalink 3:53 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@GhassanDahhan IQ tests are very similar to how psychologists measure “intelligence” of dogs. This is based on their obedience to humans and how fast they follow instructions. Therefore border collies are seen as the “smartest”, while in fact they’re the most servile IYI’s of all dogs. Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 23- Note 1: Why is Intelligence = (long term) survival? Because convexity, missed by IQ tests. You want to make those mistakes with small consequences NOT those with large ones. Academics ~ always focus on frequency of error not magnitude. Too Gaussianized. See #antifragile Permalink 7:51 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@warehouseninja read https://opinion.inquirer.net/118414/blame-passing   and was quickly reminded of @nntaleb’s #SITG “the government would keep tabs on economists’ inflation and economic growth forecasts next year to make them accountable for their projections, which consumers and businesses use in making decisions.” Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 22- This tweet storm irritated many: 1) Charlatans with something to sell: without IQ & other *testing* psychologists have little to sell society; there is a vested interest in hacking/massaging the stats & defending the products. 2) Pple who want some races to be inferior. Permalink 7:00 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If you look at my p-haking above all the numbers by the fellow are upper bound -add category selection & the story is grim. Discount the story by >½. “If IQ isn’t a valid concept, no concept in psychology is valid.” Sorry but psychology is largely bust. https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1057962295999885312   Permalink 3:30 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 20- This Tweet storm has NO psychological references: simply, the field is bust. So far ~ 50% of the research DOES NOT replicate, & papers that do have weaker effect. Not counting poor transfer to reality. How P values often fraudulent: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Same for g factor Permalink 1:36 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@HarryDCrane The best/only place to learn prob/stat is “on the street”. Concepts that are second nature in the wild become convoluted in the classroom (p-value, confidence level). https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1077611993526194176   Permalink 9:55 AM – 25 Dec 2018

Monsanto, McKinsey, Shihabi, Saudi Barbaria, Pedophrasty, Haley, Frum, GMOs | Twitter

Yesterday I received the @Wolfram Award (for computational mathematics). It’s not an award. It’s an accreditation: a statement by the smartest person I know about (@stephen_Wolfram) certifying: “As far as I can see, for computational probability, N N Taleb is not an idiot”.

@ngriffin360 Life is.. #longgamma #antifragile @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/rhErBRtxQ3 Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ya LebTwitter Shu bit7ébbo nsammé l lgha taba3na? @oldlevantine @Extrachelle @HsenAndil @PZalloua @961Aleh @lebaneselingui1 @BLebnene @turlevnon Permalink 6:50 PM – 22 Oct 2018

@RobertKennedyJr Momentous news on #Monsanto appeal! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/22/monsanto-cancer-roundup-weedkiller-judge-denies-appeal   Permalink 5:25 PM – 22 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Real World Risk #9. 55 pple. Lunch break. pic.twitter.com/2GhOaMdNJn Permalink 10:18 AM – 22 Oct 2018

@yhazony What I learned from this: There’s a morality that attends the study and dissemination of ideas. A professionalism, if you like. You don’t shoot your mouth off when you don’t know what you are talking about. You don’t write essays and give speeches about books you haven’t read. /4 Permalink 5:28 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese Language books in process. https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1054102008360247298   Permalink 2:24 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Many people make the mistake of engaging shills with arguments. Never take at face value what a paid shill like that despicable @aliShihabi says. Gabish? Permalink 12:40 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic A big reason why normal pple like @nntaleb is that he calls out the experts & ivory tower intelligentsia. The sort of people who call the normal person ‘populist’, ‘pseudoscientific’,etc. NNT turns the tables (with proof, maths & superior thought). He PROVES they r pseudo-experts https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1054017843136749574   Permalink 10:53 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For the record, Mr @aliShihabi, Saudi Gov. lobbyist, fully aware of my vocal criticism, has tried to infiltrate a restaurant dinner party I was giving, supposedly to “talk to me”. I never talk to shills. I cannot be bribed by shills. I am uncompromising: I despise shills. Permalink 9:42 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@Ashu_2017 As expected, Saudi govt was keeping a close tab on critics. Impossible not to marvel at the courage of @nntaleb for his frequent attacks on the Saudi state. #Khashoggi https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/us/politics/saudi-image-campaign-twitter.html   Permalink 8:45 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@Joyce_Karam Oh, McKinsey is “horrified” that its 9 page report to #Saudi naming dissidents was used to go after dissidents: https://twitter.com/McKinsey/status/1053838356826808320   Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@aClassicLiberal Sweden has higher wealth inequality than the US, @nntaleb explains it in “Inequality and Skin in the Game”: “Any form of control of the wealth process–typically instigated by bureaucrats –tended to lock people with privileges in their state of entitlement” http://bit.ly/2Jd2reY   Permalink 7:43 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Most people who complain about inequality are those rich, but narcissistic and envious of the strata above them: “I Joseph S, am smart, but why is he richer?” Chapter in Skin in the Game: https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is typical @JosephEStiglitz probability-blind BS: inequality in the US measured STATICALLY is higher than Eu. Completely misses on the DYNAMICS, and on the mismeasurement of inequality under Fat Tails. See #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/sciam/status/1053000745459638277   Permalink 6:38 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@SituationO In the memory of massacre of Aishiyeh(Maronite town in #Lebanon )that took place Between 19th to 21st of October 1976 More than 70 Christians(7 under the age of 16) were killed & one was burned alive by PLO Fatah &Saika. The village was depopulated & used as PLO base of operation Permalink 6:33 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words, @McKinsey effectively DID help Saudi Arabia track dissidents. Despicable. pic.twitter.com/aAdJ6v5nsQ Permalink 6:04 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My 2015 accusation: Since Sep 11 we encouraged an “ally” to groom Salafi terrorists and spread intolerance while fighting terrorism in the wrong place. https://www.politico.eu/article/the-saudi-wahhabis-are-the-real-foe-islamic-terrorists-salafi-violence/   Permalink 5:59 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Bigoteering: Christians banned from areas/highways; identifying dress code for Saudis; tortures journos; ethnic cleanses Syria; beheads atheists/apostates/critics/LBGT; treats women/Asian workers like cattle …then send Twitter agents to mark critics as “racist”. @jack Permalink 5:39 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@gcfr20 A probability problem for recreation (cc @nntaleb, @CutTheKnotMath, @_eylem_99) pic.twitter.com/b5RCR5Fh4j Permalink 5:54 PM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This Saudi shill is transforming the abominable crime by Saudi Barbaria into a U.S. domestic affair. Despicable man. https://twitter.com/alishihabi/status/1053688547667046400   Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This Saudi shill is transforming the abominable crime by Saudi Barbaria into a U.S. domestic affair. Despicable man. https://twitter.com/aliShihabi/status/1053688547667046400   Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb One possible route for the solution. pic.twitter.com/E6ncDPDyPY Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@AshokaHolla #UnitedStates with an economy of $20Tr financially need not pander to a rogue nation for a meagre annual $32 billion bilateral trade. @ianbremmer @nntaleb https://twitter.com/AshokaHolla/status/1053611434708553728   Permalink 4:40 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saturday Morning Math Exercise: in remembrance of our friend @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/WGwbZQju6g Permalink 4:36 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb After 17 days of denial, the Saudis accept their role in the death of the journalist, saying “it was just an argument that got physical”. After 17 years, the Saudis will accept their role in 9/11, saying “it was just a flying lesson that went wrong”. https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1053482545797578752   Permalink 8:17 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The Saudi affair can lead to a (positive) minority rule effect: an intransigeant minority boycotting Saudi Barbaria & shaming those who do can rule. Anyone remotely associated with Saudi Barbaria will be punished. Hope to see the minority rule at work! https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 7:14 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In “Skin in the Game”, I state that there is no group that violates morality rules and symmetry (fundamental ethics) as much as the neocons. Permalink 5:30 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mr Krugman @paulkrugman has been effectively wrong on everything (markets, bitcoin, technology, trade, GDP, FX, elections, history…): the real world is not something he has ever managed to grasp. So, predictably, he now supports the neocons (Iraq, Lybia, Syria, etc.) https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1053274998742441985   Permalink 5:21 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb How did you know? Please don’t tell anyone. Permalink 5:15 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Details: pic.twitter.com/jM80A8bUaY Permalink 3:14 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Yesterday I received the @Wolfram Award (for computational mathematics). It’s not an award. It’s an accreditation: a statement by the smartest person I know about (@stephen_Wolfram) certifying: “As far as I can see, for computational probability, N N Taleb is not an idiot”. pic.twitter.com/IcM3gMw14G Permalink 5:08 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@GenEngNetwork In order to save #glyphosate, the Monsanto corp has undertaken an effort to destroy the UN cancer agency IARC, by any means possible. Here is the part one of an investigation from Le Monde. Stéphane Horel, Stéphane Foucart #monsantopapers #glyphosate https://www.ehn.org/monsanto-glyphosate-cancer-smear-campaign-2509710888.html   Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb I don’t understand the symbolism of the rooftop yet but I will be there anyway. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1053220609331748864   Permalink 4:23 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #theblackswanman #blackswanman #Nietzsche #Halloween pic.twitter.com/7fh1FIdqZZ Permalink 2:42 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@SwedeWhite Watching @nntaleb tinker with probability w/ @WolframResearch Mathematica at #WolframTechConference—so cool pic.twitter.com/0rbxrDOo8m Permalink 1:05 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb At any rate I will start my lecture with: Delenda Saudi Barbaria pic.twitter.com/JvAICZU9Ok Permalink 12:39 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@DavidVStewart As I reflect on Roman history and the work of @nntaleb , I realize that what made the great generals great was not some special knowledge of strategy, but the ability to exploit opportunities, optionality, and keep asymmetry in their favor. Permalink 11:46 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In about one hour I am slated to lecture on “how to tinker with probability using Mathematica.” Should I use the platform to discuss Saudi Barbaria instead? What should I talk about? Permalink 11:46 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb EMPIRICAL RIGOR Will all due respect to @NickKristof, BS vendor @jk_rowling, Kashoggi was a defender of HIS OWN free speech, not that of others. K supported the beheading of Nimr, the Shiite cleric who dared to speak up. Disclosure: I met Khashoggi in Riyadh in 2011. pic.twitter.com/LYTM8vrnk4 Permalink 6:40 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Whenever Saudi Barbaria has a problem, they spend more money on spin and propaganda. https://twitter.com/Saudi_Source/status/1051666466540531712   Permalink 4:44 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb “A single journalist is a tragedy; ten thousand Yemenis is a statistic”. Joseph Stalin, 1949 Permalink 4:16 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Now we are making progress. If I entered the Saudi consulate and beat up one of the prediabetic sheikhs, would the NY police intervene? So if they can call the police on me( by (“authorizing”), not the reverse, there is an asymmetry. Permalink 2:01 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb So, in other words, if the Saudis had guillotines in their consulates to streamline future processes, it’s no problem? Permalink 1:49 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Say I showed up at the Saudi Consulate in New York to get a visa to vacation in one of their fabulous resorts, & they hacked me to pieces. Assume there is no evidence I am a US. citiizen. Would the New York police need to ask Saudi Barbaria for permission to investigate? Permalink 1:35 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Stop the shills! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-10-17/ex-amb-indyk-says-u-s-must-keep-saudis-on-positive-agenda-video   Permalink 1:13 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb On my way to the conference! @WolframResearch https://twitter.com/WolframResearch/status/1052629643302490112   Permalink 12:07 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There will be an inexpensive paperback version later in 2019-2020. The vol 1 of the Technical Incerto sh be out in 2-3 months (color, hardback, my own design), subsidized. Permalink 10:20 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is the hardcover (much more expensive than the paperback), coming out in March 2019. Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Last version of the next Box Set. Aesthetics count. Which is why I write in LaTeX. pic.twitter.com/skCXDpOaMA Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My problem with Saudi Barbaria is not domestic. They can have the regime they want. It is that the country is dangerous to the rest of the world: + support for terrorism/911, + spread of Wahabi doctrine, + ethnic cleansing in Syria, + propaganda, infl over U.S. policy etc. https://twitter.com/tsneaux/status/1052560904049623040   Permalink 7:30 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Upregulation, overcompensation. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/aopsnews/status/1052310223082393601   Permalink 3:01 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb CASCADES Saudi Barbaria will give us an illustration of a standard cascade: Barbaria can retaliate against a single company or a country (as they tried w/Canada); but cannot do so against the rest of the world. Cascades are the standard readjustment for complex systems. Permalink 2:16 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb I will give lecktchur by video sometimes during the program. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1050019558067716098   Permalink 1:46 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@AmLyceum Penn Station, a tragedy in four parts: pic.twitter.com/EXySqHCvd0 Permalink 10:13 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb King Kong on Broadway? I have to improvise! pic.twitter.com/TxWDcDZWuC Permalink 9:46 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Philosophy of Probability: How we can link the speed of convergence of the law of large numbers to the problem of induction. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   cc: @HarryDCrane @paulboghossian ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VxNhOqY7eA”>  pic.twitter.com/VxNhOqY7eA Permalink 4:54 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, please call the king of Saudi Barbaria again for his second version of the story. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1051814214212485120?s=21   Permalink 6:20 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@alwyn_lau Re-reading @nntaleb’s “Anti-Fragile”. Now I know why I have an innate suspicion towards: a) fit-bits/activity trackers b) after-school tuition which fill up a child’s week c) packaged vacations d) KPIs’ e) systematic theology pic.twitter.com/IJ1PHqQdbo Permalink 6:10 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words (Fat Tony’s), don’t cross a river that’s on average 4 feet deep. https://twitter.com/necsi/status/1051883954603782145   Permalink 3:29 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words (Fat Tony’s), don’t cross a river that’s on average 4 feet deep. https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/1051883954603782145   Permalink 3:29 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Well, @Paul_Salem: A shameless shill for the UAE (hence Saudi Barbaria). Foreign affairs people start with an idealistic views of the world; they try to become scholars. Then life happens and they realize they are unskilled labor; so they get corrupted to the bone. https://twitter.com/MiddleEastInst/status/1051933221288595463   Permalink 2:46 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words, Saudi Barbaria is saying: “We didn’t mean to kill him; we just tortured him to death” Permalink 1:58 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@James_McGinniss Love @nntaleb on CC (1:22:00): “there’s a high probability the [IPCC models] are full of crap and there’s also a probability their opponents are… but the more uncertainty there is in a system the less you want to pollute, bc you don’t know what’s going on”. Limit our downside https://twitter.com/naval/status/1051578799098195969   Permalink 1:55 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb To say it in the language of the Saudi Barbaria: عذر اقبح من ذنب (An excuse that is more hideous than the crime) https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1051928133249712128   Permalink 1:52 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@NECSI The more nonlinearity in the response, the less informational the average. Within the day, you do not need to consume the same amount water every minute, but at the scale of the day, you want maximal evenness. @nntaleb @NECSI #Complexity Permalink 10:14 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@__anoop @nntaleb says ‘anyone who is capable of writing a business plan, you dont want to invest with them’ – and this is the reason why I like Taleb. He’s an honorable man. Why? He said it to a VC (@naval) on stage at a blockchain conf. That takes guts and more than that conviction Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Unless they are fables or fable-like (Borges, Calvino), short stories are hard to remember. Permalink 6:40 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@adolfont “Anything that smacks of competition destroys knowledge.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://bit.ly/2pV8b46   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZUipjh3KPf”>  pic.twitter.com/ZUipjh3KPf Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Make sure the Secretary of State has a well-functioning Apple Watch. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1051814214212485120   Permalink 5:42 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Short stories are mostly read by people who want to write short stories. Permalink 4:10 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 3- Now if the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria makes a deal w/Iran to retaliate against the West, guess what would happen: Iranians will just take their oil, via a Shiite insurrection. Reason: oil reserves are in the Shiite section & indigenous are treated like sub-dhimmis. Permalink 5:54 PM – 14 Oct 2018

@schmittpaula “The most consequential and destructive 9/11 truther conspiracy was that Saddam was behind 9/11”. https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/1051508445701173249   Permalink 9:38 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Rischiare Grosso (Introduction to Skin in the Game in Italian) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOcQojM9VPM&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 9:17 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The Palestinian “leadership” has never missed an opportunity to harm their own. Practically never. https://twitter.com/KhaledAbuToameh/status/1051455437319606275   Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb …and said journalist is a Muslim Brotherhood activist, in favor of the ethnic cleansing of Syria, the Yemen war, & other Jihadisms. His falling out w/the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria (a.k.a MBS) is infighting similar to the Castellammarese War betw. mafia families. Gabish? Permalink 7:12 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A Yuuuge agency problem in journalism: they care abt journalists far more than other pple. + Saudi Barbaria does Sept 11, blows up & ethnically cleanses Syria, Salafizes countries, wrecks Yemen. Nobody cares. + Saudi Barbaria suspected of killing one journalist, total deluge. Permalink 5:50 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Genetically and culturally fake category. Chromoidentities. pic.twitter.com/SoLmuCxRwo Permalink 5:17 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@Sugarsteroni What We Learned from Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Naval Ravikant https://buff.ly/2pSWc7a   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BBd6uqIX5B”>  pic.twitter.com/BBd6uqIX5B Permalink 5:15 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@jnaanarthi @naval Here’s audio extract with noise removed https://soundcloud.com/user-515868246/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-naval-ravikant-chat   Permalink 2:01 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@notiveri Da Gesù a Donald Trump, perché non si può vivere senza rischiare: Nei momenti storici di crisi emerge na necessità di rischiare. Per andare oltre le regole consolidate, che del resto non valgono più nulla. L’elogio del rischio di Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2018/10/14/da-gesu-a-donald-trump-perche-non-si-puo-vivere-senza-rischiare/39737/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nepyQ0VLcY”>  pic.twitter.com/nepyQ0VLcY Permalink 9:04 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@Sri_Rad15 Was there. Those Golden words “F-bayes” https://twitter.com/Sri_Rad15/status/1033410957861683201   Permalink 5:49 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Most plausible explanation is that they wanted to take him to Saudi Barbaria. Permalink 4:35 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: 1- My comment in new book: You can ONLY use Bayesian updating under reliable priors and reliably CONVERGING probabilities. 2- Efron’s outstanding summary. pic.twitter.com/KK8UQ74hKM Permalink 3:02 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The approach to the murder of the journo by Saudi Barbaria (if details are true) illustrates the conflation the sophisticated w/what looks sophisticated. The most sophisticated approach wd have been to use a cheap hitman on a motorcycle. Saudis acted like academic economists. Permalink 12:13 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Recall my Twitter fight with Rothkopf. Thank you Twitter; we can now expose frauds very early. https://twitter.com/aaschapiro/status/1050599529563615232   Permalink 11:10 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Probability… not Pinker’s thing. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1047946091637948417   Permalink 10:15 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbarian shills. One thing is certain: they’re not good at it. https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/1026416994827075585   Permalink 9:53 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There is a yuuuugely sublte point about the minority rule that @Naval got: If it’s stable, it comes from the minority rule. Why? Simply majority rules produce fluctuations with slight variations of majority. https://twitter.com/dawnmnewton/status/1050448770666717184   Permalink 9:21 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@CasciottaGian Caro @nntaleb Come vedi l’impegno nella lettura ce lo metto . Grazie a @ilSaggiatoreEd @lucaformenton Ottimo Cupellaro sin dalle prime pagine. Non era facile. #skininthegame #rischiaregrosso pic.twitter.com/XplbiA48kD Permalink 9:16 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@JeanMessiha La haine de soi du gauchiste obéit a une règle immuable: plus la cause lui est étrangère plus il se mobilisera et vice-versa. Il soutiendra donc Rohingyas, Ouïgours, Yazidis…mais JAMAIS de Chrétiens, ni d’Orient ni d’ailleurs. Horreur, ils font trop penser aux Cathos français ! Permalink 8:14 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb (Blocking works well: I used to get 15-20 “cute” remarks for the Math quizzes, now I just get 2 or 3). You reduce 95% of the noise just by blocking .1% of the followers. Permalink 6:57 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The long route, unlike @laptopman4 pic.twitter.com/Qhi7jlI47l Permalink 6:44 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Hint pic.twitter.com/S15lBVNjL2 Permalink 6:37 PM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2 out of 3 so far seem very close. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/934225604228116480   Permalink 10:11 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Meetings are metastatic. Permalink 9:19 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@NonMeek @nntaleb Here’s a handy comic strip for your next encounter with prominent mathematical finance professors. [ https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_  ] ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zCNrhGFpcU”>  pic.twitter.com/zCNrhGFpcU Permalink 9:15 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A simple riddle, courtesy the Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/Ba47RfEUE2 Permalink 8:18 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/15/business/dealbook/stock-surge-presents-risks-for-the-trump-administration.html   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8w3ZhyxkXB”>  pic.twitter.com/8w3ZhyxkXB Permalink 8:14 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A reliable predictor of future insuccess: if someone writes long (and frequent) emails. Permalink 6:30 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Honorable people punish. https://twitter.com/getfactual/status/873205174696890369   Permalink 4:36 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There was no fire during the firechat. https://twitter.com/AdamPWeiss/status/1050452941474131969   Permalink 4:30 PM – 11 Oct 2018

@drjasonfung 3 cases of type 2 diabetes reversal with fasting – http://casereports.bmj.com/content/2018/bcr-2017-221854.full   @nntaleb would appreciate how this fits with Via Negativa, and also why these paradigm shifts don’t come out of academia Permalink 12:47 PM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Annahar an Arabist and Arabophiliastic paper published a blank issue today. I don’t know if it was intentional, but there was suddenly more substance in it than usual. https://twitter.com/decafquest/status/1050415681446010880   Permalink 9:03 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@ShipSystem Most who never lived in Belgium misses to understand the Belgian mentality that they are hyper localists. Even the Flemish dont want to be part of the NL and Walloon dont want to be French & they all dont care for central gov/nation. They are localists. ping @nntaleb @ektrit Permalink 6:36 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@EamonnK Went to the dentist yesterday. Had to get X-Rays taken. First time (after reading ‘Antifragile’) I ever thought wow! These x rays are good for me!! #Antifragile #Antifragility @nntaleb @Antifragilista7 pic.twitter.com/qqyrgrqym9 Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Chi non risica non rosica. Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Se il titolo sembra diverso da quello degli Stati Uniti, è perché lo volevo. “Rischiare grosso” è meglio in italiano in quanto insiste sul rischio. @ilSaggiatoreEd Post scriptum : Vuoi che faccia un breve Youtube in italiano? https://twitter.com/hugowiz/status/1050350614612455424   Permalink 6:25 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@WeAreLebanon Foggy sky over #DhourChoueir By @amal_h86 #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/p5Fk5loZGC Permalink 4:20 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@ilSaggiatoreEd «A una minoranza intransigente (di un certo tipo) che si metta in gioco […] basterà raggiungere diciamo il tre o quattro per cento della popolazione totale per costringere quest’ultima a adeguarsi alle sue preferenze.» #RischiareGrosso Da oggi http://ow.ly/vrly30m2NBQ   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lETXsxaLon”>  pic.twitter.com/lETXsxaLon Permalink 3:00 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Plane ride to LA. Took the engineering route, not the mathematician’s. pic.twitter.com/1HwyUutwcA Permalink 12:48 PM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb TEchnical Black Swan Problem pic.twitter.com/GmcEV30DFn Permalink 12:23 PM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There’s a *statistical* near-certainty that Nate Silver doesn’t understand probability. Actually, there is a certainty. cc:@EllieAsksWhy https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1047882643528974336   Permalink 9:07 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@ericozkan1 Color? And how about the gilded frame? Sam (Harris) does not get the gilded frame…I’ve only used that for Newton. pic.twitter.com/mk6hDKVzfi Permalink 7:02 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #popper #theblackswan #falsification #problemofinduction pic.twitter.com/k88DHkdkFH Permalink 6:46 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Some have severe problems of reading comprehension (witness logically-challenged journo @TheStalwart). Labeling people is not “thinking” in labels: thinking is a thought process, labeling is the shortcut result of a thought process. Think. Gabish? https://twitter.com/MalthusJohn/status/1049995096807145472   Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb MATH PROBLEM DU JOUR (EASY): pic.twitter.com/GVz3araMFc Permalink 2:27 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik You may remember this brave guy from a few months ago After reading @nntaleb, he used deadlifts to recover from lung surgery despite scary warnings to the contrary from his doctors If he can do it, so can you Now get out there and start lifting https://twitter.com/maalaukong/status/1049897517515718656   Permalink 11:06 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@stan_yurin This clueless text generator have won the econ nobel, enough said. https://twitter.com/stan_yurin/status/986610320457256960   Permalink 8:16 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@producerdrummer “Friends, remember that: Unless you build a habit of making money on your own, standalone, you will find yourself, at some point, depending on the whims of someone else who will run your life. When it’s too late.” @nntaleb Permalink 5:47 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink And tripes pic.twitter.com/j8kDBoVXpb Permalink 5:01 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Here is the “chaos” predicted by this young “genius” if Assad re-takes Syria from jihadists: Christians celebrating the Feast of the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary last month for the first time in the restored cathedral – blown up by this think-tanker’s “freedom fighters”! pic.twitter.com/LqjG6bP9Ew Permalink 4:22 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For those confused, this is what pedophrasty means. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@BrianTHeligman 13. Special thanks to @normonics and @nntaleb for their excellent climate letter that really helped to clarify my framing of all this. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf   Permalink 9:13 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The idiotic @thestalwart: 1) Does not distinguish between THINKING IN labels and EXPRESSING IN labels (say in condensing a tweet). 2) Retweets “behind your back” with pic not so I don’t see it. Learn defects from journos. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1049681886761639936   Permalink 8:46 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The replacement of psychopathic pedophrastic low-IQ maximally neocon ambassador by someone who can potentially be a neocon is excellent news. https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/1049678995476877312   Permalink 8:22 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You are also told the same in post-revolutionary America. Just avoid MSM. https://twitter.com/Mehdi_IR_DC/status/1049679843900710912   Permalink 8:17 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Christmas came early. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1049671372962783234   Permalink 7:55 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, but I block idiots. There is something about extreme stupidity that makes it unethical in its harm the public. Please do not take it personally. Nothing personal, but I just block idiots. Permalink 5:09 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2) Why are journos such as @davidfrum sooooooooooooo clueless about rent seeking? pic.twitter.com/bxhWV0ptcz Permalink 4:56 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 1) It is a shame that journos don’t get that money made thanks to office is defrauding the taxpayer. https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1049627625046626304   Permalink 4:55 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@GMOFreeUSA Gerber has begun to make non-GMO claims on some of their products, without independent verification. That’s not good enough. BOYCOTT GERBER until they remove GMOs and get Non-GMO Project Verified. SIGN THE PETITION: http://tinyurl.com/jd997ka   READ: http://www.gmwatch.org/news/latest-news/16297-do-gm-soybean-plants-accumulate-formaldehyde   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/o1QMTs4kb1″>  pic.twitter.com/o1QMTs4kb1 Permalink 6:07 PM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Do I strike you as someone who would set foot in Harvard Square? Permalink 4:48 PM – 8 Oct 2018