Tag Archives: Antifragile

GMOs, Brexit, Brussels Elite, ANTIFRAGILE, Overregulation, Syria, NonStable Power Laws, Kasperov, Life Expectancy, YouGov, IYI | Twitter

@nntaleb The average signatory’s Nobel y: 1997. Av. age at prize:~62. These are in their 80s, many 30-50y behind cutting edgehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748939971583741955   Permalink 3:33 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@food_democracy Breaking Let Freedom Ring! Vermont’s 1st in the Nation GMO Labeling bill has just gone into effect! Thanks Vermont!pic.twitter.com/KFnMWo1u1i Permalink 9:04 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Syrian rebels call themselves Mujaheddin. Stop the BS, call them by what they are. And learn Arabic.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/748988061426544640   Permalink 2:55 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Not always. Only if economist/journo AND BS vendor like @Noahpinionhttps://twitter.com/rneppalli/status/748971060641533953   Permalink 1:20 PM – 1 Jul 2016

@brunoboni Nero di seppia con bottarga #nerodiseppia @nntalebpic.twitter.com/RLkRCqMiKw Permalink 11:28 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb 107 Nobel winners ag Golden Rice, aged pple who did their work before complexity theory… https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153946452908375  pic.twitter.com/6Ic2z7nJg2 Permalink 11:02 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb It was not Elinor Ostrom who said “give us our fishing waters back”;it was Nigel Farrage. Time for bureaucrats to learn complexity/localism Permalink 10:20 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Philip as the UberStatistician & a fierless leader you should join us in an expanded project on GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   @philipbstark Permalink 9:42 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb I will never discuss a friend in public no matter the situation. Only in private. Even with ex- friends @philipbstark Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb The EU, something built 1950s-style, without understanding of complex systems.http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/685286/EU-referendum-Brexit-Black-Swan-Nassim-Taleb-Brussels-elite?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+daily-express-news-showbiz+%28Daily+Express+%3A%3A+News+%2F+Showbiz+Feed%29   Permalink 6:45 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Find the inconsistency, or how “average” probability isn’t a robust construct. [Quiz abt empty suit @JustinWolfers]pic.twitter.com/dd2dYsJu4Y Permalink 6:09 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Noboby noticed: only “Nobel” of 107 who “knows” abt risk is Robert Merton who blew up w/ LTCM “1 in trillion” risk.https://twitter.com/BioSRP/status/748858953937846273   Permalink 6:01 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Announcement: RWRI-3 Real World Risk fall workshop date has been changed to Oct 3-7 [We found great quarters in NYC] http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb Jensen’s inequality and sensitivity to variance in plantshttps://twitter.com/CurrentBiology/status/748604696739340288   Permalink 5:05 AM – 1 Jul 2016

@nntaleb Thought they were desperate to add a nobel in literature but…they added Robert Merton, Mr LTCM. Guaranteed Blowup!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748525227852849153   Permalink 4:53 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Donald Trump via trial and error looking for what people want. Know your customer rule.http://cnb.cx/29bzpMM   Permalink 2:11 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voters tired of an elite that can’t find coconuts on Coconut Islandhttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000530650   Permalink 2:06 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Indeed: variance helps them! @Chris_arnade Permalink 2:02 PM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Alternative Test: what’s is the probability that @JustinWolfers a representayive member of the IYI class deadlifts? Permalink 8:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The only empirical association between Risk/Safety & Nobel Prize is LTCM. Try again, hire a more informed PR firm.https://twitter.com/MichaelRStrain/status/748319864595439616   Permalink 7:34 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Turned out Pinker’s words & references do not match. Asking him for backup, not words. 800 page thesis … no backuppic.twitter.com/kKRb0U6fwk Permalink 7:11 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Impressive: saw that Silver Rule (#Skininthegame) ⇔decision-making under incompleteness. He is MD &Deadlifts>600lbs!https://twitter.com/MDiPaolaMD/status/748493696052629504   Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Nassim Taleb Slams The World’s “Intellectual-Yet-Idiot” Class | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-26/nassim-taleb-slams-worlds-intellectual-yet-idiot-class   Permalink 5:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 3 millennia of *wisdom=action under incomplete information* from King Solomon to Popper to Simon undid by that idiothttps://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/748157273789300736   Permalink 4:57 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finally completed my ANTIFRAGILE application to Medicine. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf   Permalink 4:52 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Phil forgot 1 Nobel prize for literature. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/748471063521169408   Permalink 4:51 AM – 30 Jun 2016

@hamlet911 If you can piss off econs, IYIs, academia and most of the twitterverse – all at the same time, you are pretty much right. Kudos @nntaleb Permalink 6:37 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb “If a tractor used on a farm has a windshield, its wipers must have a speed of 25 cycles per minute.” Brussels…pic.twitter.com/a8Ywc63eka Permalink 6:49 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The envious will perceive you as always arrogant.https://twitter.com/ban_kanj/status/748328386343354368   Permalink 6:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Overregulation by EU:length of a banana, volume per toilet flush, speed of agricultural tractor’s windshield wipers https://www.contribuables.org/2014/05/europe-trop-de-normes-pas-assez-de-liberte/   Permalink 6:28 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It takes 16 times longer to incorporate and run a bizness in Milan than Londra @Twitpiero Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Move a German to Paris or a French person to Frkfrt. No way. Both would move to LDN.https://twitter.com/fartelengelbert/status/748252528685518848   Permalink 1:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Another, #NonfakeRationalia, w/no BS vendors like Tyson: based on orthodox statistics & presence-absence of evidencehttps://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/748157273789300736   Permalink 1:18 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From my experience, London is attractive for banks as it has labor laws similar to US/pool of talent. Paris and Frankfurt tried & failed. Permalink 1:14 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Economist @JustinWolfers strikes me as the type w/no math, no erudition & no skin-in-the game. Does he deadlift? Permalink 12:11 PM – 29 Jun 2016

@mikeharrisNY @nntaleb @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Chart updated. Woa.#brexit looks like a non-event. Thanks prof.pic.twitter.com/3tA9d4wOyK Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb #skininthegame: Unless one has P/L it is hard to assess the “significance” of a move. Journos/Tawkers can’t get it!https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/748203429843996673   Permalink 10:19 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb GBP/USD 1year deviation is within significance band: nothing reflects such “gravity” of an event. Kapish? @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Permalink 10:13 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb UK stocks up from #Brexit vote. Ignore any word written by a journo except for street crime reporters.pic.twitter.com/GO55oGidAM Permalink 9:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From reading his work, Mr Wolfers has *some* challenges with probability theory. More, later. @jimmyybill @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A more advanced class is based on my book SILENT RISK and the papers here http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BTW this is my syllabus for the introductory class (7 lectures) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Lecture%20Syllabus.pdf   Permalink 6:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb My first lecture: this is the clueless way to look at data. Histograms don’t give information for fattails.https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/747839522965098496   Permalink 6:37 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb No, the Pound move was not a Black Swan, & not a statistical outlier.pic.twitter.com/7mwey4GGRi Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Simplicity and skin in the game: Those who tawk propose more complicated models than those who do. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/nassim-taleb-on-simplicity-and-skin-in-the-game-cm642323   Permalink 2:20 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule in action http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf  https://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/747898686852608001   Permalink 2:06 PM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb European Union, definition: Something designed by someone who doesn’t understand complex systems. Permalink 9:10 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@GMWatch URGENT: Act Now to Save #GMO Labeling, Before It’s Too Late! https://action.organicconsumers.org/o/50865/p/dia/action3/common/public/?action_KEY=18302&track=moFRN&tag=FRN#sthash.aPx1sX5D.dpuf  pic.twitter.com/QtRvlAPqcB Permalink 8:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does not deadlift. (@MDiPaolaMD)https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/747616032928464900   Permalink 8:55 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@BogeJan @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam Balkanisation is failed centralization. Helvetization is successful decentralization Permalink 7:07 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People say “Balkanization”, why not”Helvetization”? @yaneerbaryam has ideas for Syria http://necsi.edu/research/social/peace_PLoS_f.pdf  https://twitter.com/aNatureTech/status/747790776353067010   Permalink 6:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Stop bloodshe! Only solution for Syria is partition. Fences make better neighbors. Or strong decentralization.https://twitter.com/bitgit/status/747781027502915584   Permalink 6:22 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb An illustration of the ludic fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludic_fallacy   (People who derive reputation/authority from games…)pic.twitter.com/CvnuQGm4qd Permalink 6:11 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Before theorizing abt Assad, have skin in the game & live w/rebels. Those you support would behead you @Kasparov63http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36637378   Permalink 5:51 AM – 28 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I have to *write* the paper! @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 3:48 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Grandmaster Marco Avellaneda @MAvellaneda55 is giving a flash talk in 15 min. He was last seen in Mexico. Permalink 3:05 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@KeaneBhatt Protesters of US ‘inaction’ in Syria should re-read two paragraphs, written in present-tense http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/world/middleeast/cia-arms-for-syrian-rebels-supplied-black-market-officials-say.html  pic.twitter.com/D7YVMYKCCW Permalink 12:44 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I have seen the two @silva and @stevehiltonx tease one another: Interesting pair.http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/if-rohan-silva-can-hug-brexit-campaigner-steve-hilton-theres-hope-for-us-all-a3281781.html   Permalink 2:03 PM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb New Version of today’s flash talk: Behavior of Sums of NonStable Power Laws. Convergence < Sqrt[log(log(n))) https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BBGJune2016.pptx.pdf   Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You should go live in Lybia when making comments like these. I live 20 m from Syria & don’t need Black-Swan blind neocons BS @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Even more bullshit. In real life, as in chess, a move has consequence and you study consequences before moving. Kapish? @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You are spouting neocon Bullshit, theorizing from afar. I was not happy with Gadafi/Saddam, but I am less happy with AlQaeda @Kasparov63 Permalink 8:03 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You want to turn Syria (hence Lebanon) into Iraq/Lybia just to spite Putin? Kill minorities for “geopolitical” BS?https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/747440635381092353   Permalink 7:48 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Presenting a flash talk tonite: Behavior of Sum of NonStable Power Laws http://go.bloomberg.com/promo/invite/bloomberg-quant-seminar-series-5/   My paper: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/BBGJune2016.pptx.pdf   Permalink 6:23 AM – 27 Jun 2016

@vtrighttoknow Thank you @SenSanders. We need more leaders like you!https://twitter.com/CFSTrueFood/status/746421448340811776   Permalink 6:26 PM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy. Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@GadSaad There you go. NNT forgot to mention that the Leave voters will all “xenophobic, hateful, illiterate racists.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/747116746843295744   Permalink 10:20 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb When people vote the way of the IYI elite, it is “democracy”. Otherwise it is misguided, irrational, swayed by populism & lack of education. Permalink 10:18 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb These imbeciles pathologizing people who did not vote the way the IYI (Intellectual-Yet-Idiots) elite wants them to. https://twitter.com/healthpsycenter/status/747100256001630208   Permalink 9:28 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finance based medicinehttps://twitter.com/HeatherM211/status/745562147715874816   Permalink 3:33 AM – 26 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The IYI class: Intellectual-Yet-Idiot Doesn’t deadlift & is scared that #Brexit started a revolution by the unwashedpic.twitter.com/26YykU2kx0 Permalink 6:35 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Intellectual Yet Idiot; Semierudite Bureaucrat;Normative;Pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand.https://twitter.com/mapale77/status/746865636211556352   Permalink 5:46 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 4 y ago, I resolved to do math >90m/day. I stuck to it, diligently, except for Jun 24, 2016 w/news of stage 1 of anti-IYI revolution #Brexit Permalink 5:37 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@lukasnaugle “Friendship that ends was never one; there was at least one sucker in it.” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/uVZVA6bs1h Permalink 5:28 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb To understand conditional life expect, see Social Security Admin: total expect increases with age. #rigorisneeded https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html   Permalink 5:09 PM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Also YouGov’s numbers about the youth mean turnout bias: the main info is youth don’t care.https://twitter.com/mylifemysay/status/746740337331343360   Permalink 9:52 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where the term “Intellectual Yet Imbecile” is born to describe a journo-bureaucrat – read a lot but not enough. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153932393103375   Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile: problem of some IYT intellectual-yet-imbecile in Brussels trying to make measures”rational” #Brexitpic.twitter.com/UUKnslcl6T Permalink 9:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@republicofmath My take on @nntaleb: just because we have skewed data doesn’t mean we should engage in skewed thinkingpic.twitter.com/ZzpQ0WnIFA Permalink 8:34 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Math: E[X|X>K2] >=E[X|X>K1] for all K2>K1 @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 8:18 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Under ANY unimodal distribution, life expectancy increases BY MORE than 1 year for every surviving year. @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink 8:13 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb If uncond. life expectancy is 80 & you are already 80, your life expectancy is ~+9 y. If you are 100, it is ~+2y @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Life expectancy (remaining years to live) increases with age. @EloyGamaS @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 8:05 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 simply if your life expectancy is 89 and you are 95, they thing you have -7 years to go! YouGov is ridiculously incompetent. Permalink 8:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BSduJour: YouGov is incompetent in polling & missed Brexit by 6 pts; here:confused life expectancy w/conditional exphttps://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/746115846624403457   Permalink 8:03 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Antikirilganlik! Güzel bir sürpriz Türkçe bulmak için. Ve güzel bir yol Türkçe kelimeleri öğrenmek için.pic.twitter.com/YbU64GYXN3 Permalink 5:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic from #RWRI: have cash in bills on you or in in a stash next to you.https://twitter.com/dermot_lyons/status/746519787694489600   Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I asked: “Who are your natural partners, people from India or those from Poland?” Brexit is giving us an answer.https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/746665738014986240   Permalink 4:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People listen to “intellectual class” abt Brexit but for 70 y they’ve been wrong on anything: Stalinism, Maoism, Freudianism,Urban planning Permalink 11:54 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to think that Levantine derives from Arabic. Some influence, that’s all. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @alielyassir Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb At the lunch table #riskmathics in Mexico City, 4/9 persons were of Lebanese origin. Permalink 8:49 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In one word: pollers are incompetent -and those who pay attention even more so. It is a bias-variance problem.https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/746366393226977284   Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It seems impossible for people to talk about markets w/o BS unless one is a trader/investor, with #skininthegame .https://twitter.com/harris4491/status/746350655418281984   Permalink 7:37 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb So the GBP is about were it was in February. Too many people talk about markets …pic.twitter.com/8OS505NhA3 Permalink 7:28 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@SenSanders I am going to do everything I can to defeat this GMO labeling legislation, which preempts Vermont’s law.http://1.usa.gov/28QN4pQ   Permalink 2:17 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb From 2012; NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: ‘The European Union Is A Horrible, Stupid Project’http://read.bi/RiSRHT   Permalink 4:26 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Today, the United States have acquired 4 new shadow states: England, London (sic), Wales, and possibly Scotland. Permalink 4:20 AM – 24 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Brookings needs to be… diminished, purged, and debullshitvendorified @MaxAbrahms Permalink 9:58 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Whatever legal disclaimer: I own gold in some forms. Permalink 9:56 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Gold! In any form. Permalink 9:52 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Brexit results after a lot of Mexican wine.pic.twitter.com/l4GA2UsWYv Permalink 8:10 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voila the problem on airplane solved by the master in higher dimensions!https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/745963733093015552   Permalink 2:42 PM – 23 Jun 2016

@ProbFact “Modernity corresponds to the systematic extraction of humans from their randomness-laden ecology.” — @nntaleb http://bit.ly/28UC0ea   Permalink 9:45 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb BTW I am long some GBP so I can talk about markets tonite to satistfy #Skininthegame @will_moriarty Permalink 9:36 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Does it include control by Norwegian universities that *during the same period* did not take a cut? #causalityishardhttps://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/739852044010434560   Permalink 9:34 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In Mexico,debate w/Rob Engel & Ed Altman on Brexit effects.There no scheduled volatility, Prices SCORN ideas/clichéspic.twitter.com/NnW7YRWYcK Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@ScottAdamsSays @AG2Pearl @fireclan55 If you understood business, you’d know counting the failures is a fool’s analysis. I have about 30, and I’m rich. Permalink 6:35 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Also note that the semi-intellectual empty suits tend to engage in entry-level scientism with promotion of GMOshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/715862574059937793   Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb You are not getting expert pbm. Grandmother’s jdgmnt doesn’t mean she is a Dr, only how to trust a doctor and for what gravity. @trombosit Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is by any metric a charlatan. The fact that bureaucrats don’t like him doesn’t make him scientific. @NickdeCusa Permalink 4:26 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Reminder: the crowds are now rebelling against empty suits & “intellectuals” https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153658794008375  pic.twitter.com/wdCTVcfNWT Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 Jun 2016

@MAvellaneda55 Made it to Mexico with @nntaleb discussing probability #brexit & #mathematics. On to #riskmathics conference!pic.twitter.com/ZxZz5pDUIe Permalink 1:21 PM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Yes! If th ~ Uniform[0,Pi], Tan[th]~ Cauchy & if radius from center random, still Cauchy as Sum of Cauchy = Cauchy @asknbid @MAvellaneda55 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Quiz given by @MAvellaneda55. A drunk person throws balls randomly in all directions. What is the proba distrib of the distance betw balls? Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Betting odds are demonstrably similar to option implied probabilities, except unhedgeable (no underlying).https://twitter.com/MAvellaneda55/status/745659184956465152   Permalink 9:53 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb On plane Prof Marco @MAvellaneda55 agrees with derivations showing betting 1/x has tail. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/LongShot.nb.pdf   Permalink 9:42 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@lukasnaugle “If you know, in the morning, what your day looks like with any precision, you are a little bit dead…” @nntalebpic.twitter.com/xTPzcjImNf Permalink 5:28 PM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Marco my math mentor/th advisor for 22.5 years adjusting probabilities for Dutch Book effect. Neat!https://twitter.com/mavellaneda55/status/745591147251240960   Permalink 5:19 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 In other words Egyptian scribes had been using Semitic languages, incl Aramaic as lingua franca for 2000 years before the Arab invasion. Permalink 4:46 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Egyptian use of Semitic lang. predates the Achaemenid inv, The Amarna letters were in Akkadian.( Aramaic in Egypt dialect.) Permalink 4:45 AM – 22 Jun 2016

@nntaleb I can’t see any backing to the idea: Brexit => Economy will tank It’s by the same economists who wouldn’t find sand in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 2:24 PM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Where I explain that “large” projects rarely start as “large” projects, but fractally grown https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153701042473375   Permalink 5:23 AM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Voila! Organic funding is the way: VCs are about cosmetic businesses to sell to the greater fool.https://twitter.com/stephenfleming/status/745225288720711681   Permalink 5:03 AM – 21 Jun 2016

@nntaleb A general question. Is is true that tears in rotator cuff “never” fully self repair? Lit is not clear on that; @cdipaola62 @DataScienceDork Permalink 3:13 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@StopponiMario @nntaleb in Italy the change is happening bottom-up as you said, cities independent from central gov as Renaissancepic.twitter.com/d7ihNEAvBL Permalink 2:53 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb For comments, my first scientific article in Medicine; on Convex responses and Antifragility. Almost done. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/medicine.pdf   Permalink 1:21 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Birth of superstate: Frederick Forsyth on how UNELECTED Brussels bureaucrats SEIZED powerhttp://shr.gs/GNd7LlN   Permalink 1:16 PM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb No, I do not lecture in Saudi Arabia, & those lecturing there are academics-for-purchase.pic.twitter.com/7IV46YGVFx Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb It is easy to find out the Monsanto shills: people who defend BOTH glyphosate and GMOs & attack glysphokeptics.https://twitter.com/philipbstark/status/744858609671090177   Permalink 4:47 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Read the NYTimes after long time (jetlag): can detect that newsmedia are afraid of their readers. When I write I don’t care abt readers. Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Byzantine mass in a small church in my ancestral village: Greco-Arabic @byzantinepowerpic.twitter.com/BYRNQ0lqQz Permalink 2:59 AM – 20 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Our paper on violence translated for nonstatisticians http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/violencenobelsymposium.pdf   @QuarrelAU Permalink 8:25 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The Nobel Symposium: 3 full days. We stopped discussing Pinker’s thesis as dismissed after 1st session.pic.twitter.com/03m9mUyNQq Permalink 8:06 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic root for Levantine du jour: Shl7 شلح comes from SHLH: undress, now fleece (-> Tshli7, Shla7 tyebak…)pic.twitter.com/zsICwu92WQ Permalink 3:05 AM – 19 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trying to explain the Mediterranean temperament to Slavs: Meds know how to have fun without necessarily getting drunk. Permalink 11:33 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb In their private lives, some people seek union, others seek frequent intersection. Permalink 4:54 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Here it is https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf  https://twitter.com/DataScienceDork/status/743991476594610176   Permalink 2:28 AM – 18 Jun 2016

@nntaleb .@PeterCorless @EHSANI22 We have evidence that many of these civilians were killed by Islamists, pictures financed by Saudi PR firms. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Jun 2016

@EHSANI22 When you read think tankers arguing for removing Assad by force or bombing syria, ask them who funds their operations and salaries. Permalink 7:33 AM – 17 Jun 2016

@nntaleb The only way one can measure intertemporal inequality is within SAME cohort. Brookings ignorant BSvendors.https://twitter.com/EconTalker/status/743476144813522944   Permalink 9:23 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb History is periods of peace punctuated by war rather than periods of war puctuated by peace. (Bergen Symposium) Permalink 5:58 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Wrong! P of .05 values don’t work… https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf  https://twitter.com/AcademicsSay/status/743413767904559104   Permalink 5:22 AM – 16 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Western Norway: mountainous, craggy, pristine, like Switzerland without the Swiss. Presenting paper on violence.pic.twitter.com/qMJiLB8AVN Permalink 6:23 PM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t put his name on steaks for the money, rather for the ego. @AdamB1438 @John_Hempton @realmarkcuban Permalink 7:17 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Area for the exception. Thrilling to visualize inequalities in higher dimensions. @alxpr1c3 @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/gCgvAVZ0mk Permalink 7:16 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Talking class paternalists don’t get it: Only way to hurt Trump is to show him crying while reading Anna Kareninahttps://twitter.com/naomiaklein/status/742746821718618112   Permalink 5:06 AM – 15 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Comments like these by the “intellectual class” will get TheDonaldo elected.https://twitter.com/naomiaklein/status/742746821718618112   Permalink 5:27 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb How many years of consecutive “peace” in a random Poisson process? Methodology. @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/jxY77d4ost Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Finalmente, 4 years after antifragile, the discourse is improving!https://twitter.com/emanuelderman/status/742723822378438656   Permalink 12:11 PM – 14 Jun 2016

@nntaleb Most humans either harm or are harmed by words. The rest is a small minority. Permalink 12:05 PM – 14 Jun 2016

Convex Optionality, Fat Tails, Antifragile, Math Puzzle, GMOs, Risk Minds, Smear Campaigns, Eggplant






Let me rephrase the point of Antifragile (via Facebook) and put some clarity in the discussions. The idea is to be chance, “risk”, and uncertainty loving where chance, “risk” and uncertainty are beneficial, and risk averse in domains with ruin problems.

The ancients understood how both courage and prudence were virtues, and how there was no incompatibility between the two –simply they didn’t apply to the same domain. (More on that, soon).

The “verbalistic” takes over rather quickly. Many people don’t nuance risk properly, especially when educated: they conflate it with variations and think that *exposure to ruin* and *risk taking* belong to the same category. They are not the same animal. Concave is not convex, fragile is not antifragile; fat tails are not thin tails, etc.

What I just wrote seems trivial, but if you take a look at the not yet dismissed “scholarly” but in fact verbalistic and verbose literature (Cass Susstein-style, particularly about “nudging”), it seems largely resting on ill-defined terms and conflated concepts. We keep seeing bigwigs conflating Ebola with falling from ladders, GMOs with agriculture, etc., leading to misdefinition of rationality.

Just a brief stop for some clarity. Have a nice weekend.


People can only be social friends if (via Facebook) they don’t ty to outsmart one another. Indeed, the classical art of conversation is to avoid any imbalance as in Baldassare Castiglione’s Book of the Courtier: people need to be equal, at least for the purpose of the conversation, otherwise it fails. It has to be hierarchy free and equal in contribution. You’d rather have dinner with your friends than with your professor, unless of course your professor understands “the art” of the conversation.

Indeed, one can generalize and define a community as a space within which many rules of competition and hierarchy are lifted, where the collective prevails over one’s interest. Of course there will be tension with the outside, but that’s another discussion. This idea of competition lifted within a group or a tribe was the idea of the late Elenor Ostrom.






This is brilliant! (via Facebook)
I swallow my reluctance to TED and TEDx to show this wonderful message on how fake grassroots are built on social media and…how easy it is to spot!

In this eye-opening talk, veteran investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson shows how astroturf, or…






Friends, Ralph Nader called me recently (via Facebook) to warn me that I was going to be subjected to a smear campaign by Monsanto and friends, throwing anything they can to undermine my credibility, “throwing everything except the kitchen sink”. They care so much about their business there is nothing they wouldn’t throw at me. Nothing. He, himself, was subjected to a nasty smear campaign by GM fifty years ago.

Fughedabout the “victim” business. And it is not about enemies building you up, that’s not the point. There a *real thrill* feeling that you are risking something for your ideas. The more risk, the more skin-in-the-game, the more thrill.

The more they attack you, the more skin-in-the-game, the more you feel honorable. I cannot describe the sentiment: all I can say is that it is the exact opposite of shame.


Thanks all for the help, (via Facebook) the persistence, and the unwavering fight against BS vending. Looks like our precautionary principle paper was used as back-up for the decision by the supreme court of the Philippines against GMOs.

People get rigorous arguments; trying to repress truth and logic is like trying to keep a balloon under water, or Fat Tony away from the fridge.

Looks like a combination of persistence and … f*** you money (which I repeat is is not about money but the moral attitude towards bullying authorities) works.


The Philippines Supreme Court permanently halted the field testing for genetically modified eggplant, Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis), upholding the decision of the Court…

ANTIFRAGILE 2016 – the 3rd International Workshop on Computational Antifragility and Antifragile Engineering

May 23-26, 2016, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid in Madrid, Spain

The main topics of the workshop include, but are not limited to:

  • Conceptual frameworks for antifragile systems, ambients, and behaviours;
  • Dependability, resilience, and antifragile requirements and open issues;
  • Design principles, models, and techniques for realizing antifragile systems and behaviours;
  • Frameworks and techniques enabling resilient and antifragile applications;
  • Discussion and analysis if antifragile applications;
  • Antifragile human-machine interaction;
  • End-to-end approaches towards antifragile services;
  • Autonomic antifragile behaviours;
  • Middleware architectures and mechanisms for resilience and antifragility;
  • Theoretical foundation of resilient and antifragile behaviours;
  • Formal modeling of resilience and antifragility;
  • Programming language support for resilience and antifragility;
  • Machine learning as a foundation of resilient and antifragile architectures;
  • Antifragility and resiliency against malicious attacks;
  • Antifragility and the Cloud;
  • Service Level Agreements for Antifragility;
  • Verification and validation of resilience and antifragility;
  • Antifragile and resilient services;
  • Safety and security issues with reference to systems able to self-evolve their identity.