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LOCALISM, “libertarians”, ADAPTATION, Justin Amash, @Reason, Marshmallowbrained Psychopaths, Ioannidis

Never use single point estimates for pandemics 5/13/20

@Monsantobuster Prof Taleb @PTetlock does not know what a probability distribution means. pic.twitter.com/YAXNpVst4s Permalink 8:10 AM – 14 May 2020

@bohemianGunjan “Panic is good only if you panic early, and as a trader the first thing you learn is to panic early”. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb. @nntaleb Amazing talk, thanks @MFBALA, @AyeshaFaridi1 pic.twitter.com/oVkA9hj0SL Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb Removed the black board https://twitter.com/MFBALA/status/1260861161354002433   Permalink 4:17 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb Ready in front of my blackboard ! #Voyage2020 https://twitter.com/pvsubramanyam/status/1260875407441760257   Permalink 4:05 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1260719597126324228?s=20   Permalink 5:26 PM – 13 May 2020

@mikeandallie Sharing ideas from @nntaleb ‘s “never use point estimates for pandemics” video with kids https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2020/05/13/sharing-ideas-from-nassim-talebs-point-estimate-for-pandemics-video-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 4:08 PM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb What I mean by LOCALISM. Linked to subsidiarity: you leave to HIGHER collective structures things that cannot be done by the individual, under constraints of liberty. We need govt where we can’t sue (systemic harm: viruses, GMOs, invasions). Govt is the systemic risk mgr. Permalink 1:35 PM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Never use single point estimates for pandemics https://youtu.be/_ZLrZc9NPVw   via @YouTube Permalink 1:27 PM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Voila https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 10:07 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb For pandemics if the average exists, about ~95-99.9% of observations would fall BELOW the average. Aside from the slow workings of the law of large numbers. Should I explain this in a short video? Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo forthcoming in Nature Physics later this week explaining the point, @mattwridley. Tail exponent <1, even possibly <½ means NEVER issue a single point forecast and NEVER present an average. pic.twitter.com/51GNm1cr5t Permalink 5:16 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb ERRORS 101 Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts. These errors are promoted by the Idiot of Pennsylvania, Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock. https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1259898818017058818   Permalink 4:49 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Why you should NEVER have awards in academia. https://twitter.com/GowagsKyle/status/1260530857821028352   Permalink 4:29 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb No, @RaminNasibov that’s not Umberto Eco’s library. His library is below. https://twitter.com/RaminNasibov/status/1260142681495306240   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/bWbltHFv9S”>  pic.twitter.com/bWbltHFv9S Permalink 4:20 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Post dinner, lockdown. pic.twitter.com/xRLGE5CFe9 Permalink 6:18 PM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb Note the response to masks. Some people are “libertarians” because of a mental defect, a combination of severe inhibition of logical faculties coupled with sociopathic behaviors. Others like @justinamash are genuinely multiscale localists. pic.twitter.com/IMQE2e6yiO Permalink 6:15 PM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb Point isn’t even reopening. It is the preponderance of people without masks in stores! https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1260372488955060225   Permalink 6:09 PM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb Here is my adaptation: work with a *real* blackboard on zoom. Just finished a discussion with @fotpetr and @spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/fotpetr/status/1260229030873268227?s=20   Permalink 8:35 AM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb Lebanon fared exceedinly well, <10 fatalities per million compared to > 500 per million in hot spots (& growing). https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1260125696417918977   Permalink 2:47 AM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb 3) Personal resets: I have been eating in restaurants 10 times a week… Hard to adapt to new environment because home eating can ~ food quality w/best ingredients but will never replace the exhilaration of an ambient crowd… Maybe they will reset & start garden restaurants! Permalink 4:01 PM – 11 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) Many small professional resets: learned to lecture on Zoom. Learned to set up a blackboard behind me for illustrations. Of course could start a business along these lines. Universities are going out of business & there is something to grab as they are too incompetent to adapt. Permalink 3:56 PM – 11 May 2020

@nntaleb ADAPTATION Do a total reset professionally, economically, personally. Treat this thing as if it were here to stay & make sure you can do with it. If it goes away, it will be a bonus but remember that the shadow of the following one will be progressively built into the system. Permalink 3:24 PM – 11 May 2020

@nntaleb And this for the sooooooo misunderstood law of large numbers https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1253408590833963008?s=20   Permalink 11:25 AM – 11 May 2020

@nntaleb This is excellent. He is simulating from my book STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. Advice to @DavidSalazarVir : increase n for large samples, to see the Mediocristan case go flat like a dinner table or the intellect of an economist. https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1254843961153187842   Permalink 11:15 AM – 11 May 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Some numbers to back what @nntaleb has been saying for months: the economy tanking is in large measure a bottom-up process. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1259435094764183552   Permalink 9:03 PM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb There we go, an intelligent version of libertarianism! https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/1259561994547605505   Permalink 1:00 PM – 10 May 2020

@BuddyCA64525731 Wonderful @nntaleb venn diagram on the right way to formalize and teach probability and risk. @macroarb @zoeharcombe https://twitter.com/zoeharcombe/status/1259447505747619840   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TJrUKCNTZF”>  pic.twitter.com/TJrUKCNTZF Permalink 8:54 AM – 10 May 2020

@DrSamPappas “Inflammation is the most frequent affection and the one showing the most number of varieties ..“ Galen of Pergamon ⁦@_Tom_Pappas⁩ ⁦@amyriolo⁩ @nntaleb⁩ Ancient Mediterranean wisdom already knew about #CytokineStorm Permalink 8:36 AM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb Seond hint. I guess we’re done. pic.twitter.com/2i4mwWp0AG Permalink 8:06 AM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb If you want to drive a fool to insolvency, lend her or him some money. Permalink 7:44 AM – 10 May 2020

@MarcosCarreira Before affirming that children are “immune” and can be exposed to risky environments, remember that: (1) Many problems will not be diagnosed due to the avoidance of hospitals, doctors (2) Saying something never happens can be disproved by a single example (see attached) @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1255941572908244996   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/waXtJl6Igm”>  pic.twitter.com/waXtJl6Igm Permalink 6:17 AM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb Bottom up vs top down. The photo is BEFORE my weight loss. Very unfair. https://twitter.com/zoeharcombe/status/1259447505747619840   Permalink 5:20 AM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb נותנה ואינו יודע למי נותנה, נוטלה ואינו יודע ממי נוטלה. נותנה ואינו יודע למי נותנה, לאפוקי מדמר עוקבא… https://twitter.com/ofer_rubin/status/1259255171986665473?s=20   Permalink 5:13 PM – 9 May 2020

@nntaleb Make your failings public; keep your virtues secret. Permalink 1:04 PM – 9 May 2020

@nntaleb Libertarianism reposes on the nonagression principle, which COMMANDS mask-wearing under the SILVER RULE. Permalink 8:32 AM – 9 May 2020

@nntaleb If you are a nonimbecile Libertarian, or localist, you want collective action to arise bottom up in a decentralized way. This is EXACTLY what is happening! Responses are largely local abt everywhere. #NonImbecileLibertarianism #NonPsychopathicLibertarianism #Localism https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1258931279317405696   Permalink 8:26 AM – 9 May 2020

@nntaleb I am in Atlanta where restrts have been ALLOWED to open. The ones I know are closed. Nice to blame local governments. It was bottom up. Clearly, most of these “libertarians” are not just geronticidal sociopaths but defective in reasoning & empirical awareness. Permalink 6:59 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Indeed, a faux debate https://twitter.com/Covid19Digest/status/1258936747699965953?s=20   Permalink 6:53 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Lockdowns (largely)followed individual behavior rather than the reverse. Except for teenagers who carry a tiny economic role. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1258897844771028993   Permalink 6:26 PM – 8 May 2020

@yaneerbaryam Why is the Batshit Crazy idea of Herd Immunity still with us? 1/4 Permalink 2:16 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb The other problem is attending a lecture on Zoom tires you much more than one in the physical world. You need to focus with some intensity all the time, can’t get cues otherwise. Permalink 1:20 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Having been separated from my library & reading on an Ipad, it is w/yuuge relief (after 463 pages) to finally get the real thing! Digital is useful for some things, but one remembers much, much better what one touches, views in 3D, and smells. It’s like exiting a 2D prison. pic.twitter.com/sKxGxOJy2E Permalink 1:17 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Publishers are indeed confused by my approach. Never separate words from aesthetics. This format is Lindy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1208317781634113536?s=20   https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1258832399409876993   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/T8KE4d5VeB”>  pic.twitter.com/T8KE4d5VeB Permalink 12:02 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Hint pic.twitter.com/otSFzfIUPr Permalink 10:08 AM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb You know when it starts. Never when it ends… https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1258775700829601792   Permalink 8:10 AM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Something to start the weekend with. Courtesy Dan Sitaru. pic.twitter.com/PGLvK4TGTK Permalink 7:57 AM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb “HEAVY BOX” : weighs 9 lbs. I wonder if I can add a volume without messing up the physical package. [PS –enjoy the Prosecco @ozwegian] https://twitter.com/ozwegian/status/1258473140084248577   Permalink 3:10 PM – 7 May 2020

@normonics Yaneer has been tireless in tackling this pandemic. This makes me sick to my stomach https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1258474980129546242   Permalink 12:20 PM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb Never, never complain about your enemies. Only losers complain. Drive them to complain about you. Permalink 12:01 PM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb Bi Masr byektbo bil Masré. Ma 3ndon 3e2dé! 7atta fi Wikipedia bil Masré! https://arz.wikipedia.org/wiki/  الصفحه_الرئيسيه https://twitter.com/Ghonim/status/1225534329679380481   Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb Excellent question! Just as correlation/covariance do not properly measure informational distance, standard deviation/variance do not measure the degree of uncertainty. More effective is entropy and conditional entropy for downside. —- I ANSWER ALL LEGIT TECHNICAL QUESTIONS https://twitter.com/bitpharma/status/1258413098588934146   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VtquYba4Vr”>  pic.twitter.com/VtquYba4Vr Permalink 9:00 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb South of Avignon is the Med France but Provencal is closer to Italian Permalink 7:21 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb The French are Germanics who think they are Mediterraneans and speak a Latin language with a German accent. Permalink 7:16 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb Solid statistical inference lies in destroying BS with a single but powerful data point. Disconfirmatory empiricism. https://twitter.com/joe_shipman/status/1258251049971875840?s=20   Permalink 3:17 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb I get v. angry when I read crap by “Johny Evidence” Ioannidis who still doesn’t get multiplicative processes w/α<1 need to be cut in the egg. This is the city where I’ve resided ~2/3 of my life. So far 75% of the people dying are dying of COVID, not counting future morbidity. pic.twitter.com/ng5cxGEBlE Permalink 4:01 PM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb Traduttore Traditore! Dumas in Cte de Montecristo: “condemned for 5 m to Italian cuisine, one of the WORST in the world”. While waiting for the mailed hard copy, was trying to read it online in Italian: “una delle piu MEDIOCRI cucine del mondo” #Cheating but Italian >> French Permalink 3:23 PM – 6 May 2020

@trishankkarthik This is why we need more people to get the #RWRI mindset @nntaleb @financequant U.S. military busy spending trillions on offense rather than than worrying about practical risks like this virus that will easily throw them off in the homeland Permalink 3:15 PM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories Just as victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. “Intelligent” people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump #TheBlackSwan pic.twitter.com/OZ3ALN6AnV Permalink 1:27 PM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb Mr Meng, It’s the naive hedging strategies that lead to underfunding. Not the effective ones. Just a quick reminder. (Mr Meng is Chief Investment Officer of CalPERS) https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/coronavirus-side-effect-calpers-drops-to-60-funded/   Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb 1) I don’t write for magazines (except short comment every 5-7 years) 2) @Reason is penetrated by exMonsanto shills/corporate interests 3) Intellectual caliber is low, dominated by sub-naive empiricists 4) I have many more readers than @Reason Ideas here: https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/JustHereToShare/status/1258102534465413120   Permalink 12:13 PM – 6 May 2020

@viziandrei “Contrary to orthodox belief, success is not being on top of a hierarchy. Success is standing outside all hierarchies.” — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/2NTpoCTMPO Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb We need to figure out which “libertarians” are really localists without the right language, and get them on board. #localism https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1258042758780125184   Permalink 9:15 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb So far (stopping because there is no rain) pic.twitter.com/E4Xev3ocBC Permalink 5:17 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb (As usual please do not pollute the math threads with nonmath comments. I had to block a few people to clean up the thread. Thank you for your understanding.) Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb In case it rains today pic.twitter.com/gom8RW9Qv7 Permalink 4:23 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb Indeed, this is the essence of #localism! https://twitter.com/FitzroyMotor/status/1257968997041127424   Permalink 3:50 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb I read Spencer’s stuff as I started learning about genetics. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1257687089132343296   Permalink 4:17 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Details pic.twitter.com/ynv4GBZR8o Permalink 3:48 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb 4) “Libertarians” are also incoherent: they deny stores the right to require masks & constrain their freedom yet ask for freedom… Nothing to do with libertarianism: rather a collection of marshmallowbrained psychopaths and misfits taking their hatred of humanity too far. Permalink 12:39 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Here @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/hez1PydBHF Permalink 12:20 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Other than pic.twitter.com/lzgr1mVQda Permalink 12:12 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Afternoon workout https://twitter.com/SrinivasR1729/status/1257667717986844672   Permalink 11:57 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb I’ve been fooled by individuals. Never by ideas. #Libertarians #Psychologists Permalink 10:06 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb So Dr Faust, MD & MS, plus some Harvard thingy, is proposing a FAUSTIAN bargain that he does not understand. Permalink 7:53 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb It is the same first order pseudo-libertarianism that asked to remove airport security checks on grounds that there was no terrorists on planes anymore. Permalink 5:43 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb This dangerous imbecile is attributing job losses to deaths, as if it were govnts (not the virus) who caused the losses , & as if measures did not reduce fatalities (cockpit locked door paradox in #TheBlackSwan). Aside from the odious approach to a “trade-off”. Shameful & stupid. https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1257379261016616960   Permalink 5:20 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb 3) “LIBERTARIAN” is meaningless a designation if you live under silver rules and laws. Localism is the only way to make what is called LIBERTARIANISM stand on its feet. Permalink 4:27 AM – 5 May 2020

@Jaffer22915438 This is fantastic! In language that I can even understand. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1257625992627138561   Permalink 4:15 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) PRINCIPIA POLITICA shows the effects of scale/localism. Systemic harm has no tort laws (you can’t sue a virus) so you MUST use the Precautionary Principle. Many libertarians are just cranks & sociopaths. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 4:04 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Being flooded by first-order (scale-blind) “libertarians” (of the no masks, “freedom” to infect others variety), arguing that reactions to the virus (but not the virus) will cause hunger & famine. Since when have these selfish sociopathic “libertarians” been concerned w/famine? Permalink 3:53 AM – 5 May 2020

@Alvarus_lat Ne tituli legi possint apud Zoom https://twitter.com/benjcartlidge/status/1257278773046718464   Permalink 5:02 AM – 4 May 2020

@bessbell Send this thread to any idiot fucker who posts an Instagram at the beach or a crowded park. Tell them my dad says see you later. Permalink 3:25 PM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb Why you don’t manage tails using an “average” or a “forecast” but how much uncertainty there is in the system. My derivations pic.twitter.com/iDHhelODw1 Permalink 2:46 PM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb My point summarized by an engineer, someone in the real world. https://twitter.com/perepescador/status/1249137866602696704?s=20   Permalink 2:38 PM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb The thrill of writing when you do it ON YOUR OWN TERMS. Stop the minute it requires the smallest effort. Painters are said to enjoy painting, writers “having written”. Painters are free & ~all writers write on someone else’s terms. I don’t write reports, emails >240 ch, etc. https://twitter.com/kazivana/status/1257035761247031299   Permalink 1:56 PM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb Here is a simple detail https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1248980856531812354?s=20   Permalink 9:03 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb There is ZERO rigor with Ioannidis. ZERO probabilistic reasoning & risk management rigor. He doesn’t even known what an exponential means. ZERO. https://www.wired.com/story/prophet-of-scientific-rigor-and-a-covid-contrarian/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=wired&utm_social-type=earned   via @wired Permalink 8:34 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb Like the spaghetti-minded Phil-the-rat @Ptetlock, there are still some pple around who are not getting skin in the game. To repeat: it is not just an incentive-disincentive problem but a FILTER –a filtering mechanism that helps remove harmful idiots. https://twitter.com/SaintSal/status/1256919393591857152   Permalink 5:18 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb Excellent idea. You want freedom to infect others; now pay for it. None of the people in parks enjoying their “freedom” should have any priority over and displace other sick people in hospitals. https://twitter.com/uuilly/status/1256800553062916096   Permalink 4:59 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb 3) The pisteuo pbm is the reason first-order atheists a la Dawkins & religious people talk past one another: simply religious beliefs never claimed to be epistemic that is, belief in the scientific sense. You need to remove verbalism & labels to understand what something means. Permalink 4:44 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ In Semitic lang., “Amen” means “trust”, not epistemic belief, so professions of faith state trust. The Syriac credo is “mhayminan 7ad aloho” = “WE TRUST only one god”. (not “I” since; is no Nicene creed for non Greek-Orthodox/Cath) Doxa in Christian Aramaic/Syriac is tshba7. pic.twitter.com/VLTM6j7Fbo Permalink 4:39 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb This is the “pisteuo” Πιστεύο pblm. Credere does not mean epistemic belief, but trust, which I defined as “pisteic”, a kind of doxastic committment . From the Nicene credo: “Πιστεύομεν εἰς ἕνα Θεὸν” In Engligh, “belief” ~beloved. Note: δόξα = belief, gift, & glorification. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1256900841954578442   Permalink 4:07 AM – 3 May 2020

@morethanmySLE WATCH: Frontline health care workers in North Carolina stand-down protesters. This is AMAZING. BRAVE. And SAD that as hard as they have worked to SAVE lives, they have to CONVINCE people to stay home to protect these protesters from spreading #COVID__19 pic.twitter.com/RuzaOpRF9L Permalink 9:11 PM – 2 May 2020

@nntaleb Used the same chalk for this and weightlifting (the bar is next to the board). Punishment for distraction while lifting: injury. Mild, but serious punishment. pic.twitter.com/jwIA5hJeMC Permalink 9:32 AM – 2 May 2020

@ektrit Risk vs Ruin are two different things. From Skin in the game by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/hXRApNmnY1 Permalink 6:29 AM – 2 May 2020

@ektrit Risks involving tail risk, meaning risk which can cause collapse, must be avoided at any cost. From Skin in the game by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HECvdVsEPa Permalink 6:15 AM – 2 May 2020

@nntaleb MATH DU JOUR Stumbled upon an inequality but can’t prove it formally yet. Can’t find it in the literature. I’ts a generalization of x y/(x+y)^2<= 1/4 (Non math commentators & trolls will be blocked) pic.twitter.com/noka1PHrvc Permalink 5:47 PM – 1 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ It is like an inverse problem vs problem. If you reverse engineer a dish based on ingredients you have at home, rather than decide on a given dish, for which the restaurant must carry at all times ALL ingredients (with no leeway), the mechanism is vastly more efficient. Permalink 5:58 AM – 1 May 2020

@nntaleb Deux poids, deux mesures? https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1255824103099039745   Permalink 5:51 AM – 1 May 2020

@nntaleb QUESTION Given that 1) people stopped going to restaurants, 2) they kept eating, & 3) farmers are dumping produce, dairy, meat owing to a surplus nobody wants, could it be that restaurants, (because of their need to maintain variety & excess quantities) waste a looot of food? Permalink 5:39 AM – 1 May 2020

@JensWilhelm2 @nntaleb this is the best explanation of your 2 people-2 filters theory up to now! https://twitter.com/PHLPublicHealth/status/1255941752164401153   Permalink 12:20 AM – 1 May 2020

@nntaleb As expected, the Texas sharpshooting style ex post change of initial target. Now let’s look at the implications. https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1255835517511483394   Permalink 6:49 PM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/2 Weightlifting Discussion du jour: Clean-Press Part 2: which one is safer/easier for heavy weights, + Power clean + Muscle clean PS- Thanks Maestro Grant @GrantSSC for answers to 1). Permalink 2:23 PM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Weightlifting Discussion du jour: Clean-Press If *x* is the weight that you can press from a rack for 5 reps, how many reps should you be able to do if you clean the bar first, for the exact same weight *x*. 5? 3? 2? cc:@GrantSSC Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We don’t see counts of morbidities from Covid. Reports seem focused on deaths. We need more rigorous accounts/estimates of damage to lungs, brains, heart, repro system,etc., ACROSS age groups. We have no clear idea if “permanent” but can see the risks from earliest infections. Permalink 12:26 PM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The problem in the US is that proportion of overweight (or, to be polite, “exceedingly well fed”) & metabolically challenged pple; the chief vulnerability for Covid. That makes any comparison or mortality rates between the US and Europe unrigorous. Permalink 7:30 AM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bingo! You never congratulate anyone for winning at the Russian roulette. https://twitter.com/alexandrionascu/status/1255863340800319493?s=20   Permalink 7:22 AM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb DYNAMIC vs STATIC While the wisdom of a tail-risk decision under asymmetries is not to be decided after, comparative numbers for Sweden are much worse. Sweden’s numbers are growing at ~50-150 a day, Norway’s 1-5. So expect the ratios to soon be 4000-6000 vs 220-250 for Norway. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161   Permalink 6:58 AM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Looks like this is coming out in a genetics journal (as part of a larger study). Finally introduced rigor in the measurement of Genetic distances. Correlation/Covariance do not reflect distances, ENTROPY does. https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7NyMSSC727″>  pic.twitter.com/7NyMSSC727 Permalink 6:43 PM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Tweets like that made me discover @justinamash. He seems to be a threat. Much more on that, later. https://twitter.com/PamKeithFL/status/1255619460288962560   Permalink 6:37 PM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Interesting. Alberta Investment Management Corp blew up EXACTLY in the way described in Chapter 3, “better convex than right”. https://twitter.com/premiamgmt/status/1255572797293621249   Permalink 12:47 PM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Actually, started already. pic.twitter.com/BRrfkdKDGv Permalink 10:53 AM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Free America now… from psychopaths! pic.twitter.com/jm9TKY4HTo Permalink 6:14 AM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Underestimation of deaths from COVID. This is an interesting demonstration of the difference between thin/fat tails. NonCovid deaths follow a thin-tailed distribution w/Chernoff bounds & v. low variance. So it is v easy to extract the near exact difference. #StatMethodology pic.twitter.com/PqXZjtb1OR Permalink 4:04 AM – 29 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie 1/2 I’ve been meaning to get to this paper for a few days but only found the time tonight. As usual Nassim gets to the point right away and the result presented in the introduction is fascinating – see paper below for full details and the next tweet for the result in the intro. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1253358169214107648   Permalink 4:08 PM – 28 Apr 2020

@normonics fucking idiot. https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1255193968809250823   Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Conditions for PHASE 1 reopening: + Mandatory masks in public + Tests + No superspreaders: subways, urologists conferences, etc. + Monitoring of passengers + Economists & psychologists stay locked-up at in permanent quarantine. Basically what we should have done in late January. Permalink 1:00 PM – 28 Apr 2020

@dottorpax Un mio lavoro con @nntaleb sul rischio di coda delle pandemie uscirà nei prossimi giorni su Nature Physics. Sarà accessibile a tutti, e posterò presto il link qui sotto. Il messaggio? Meglio non scherzare con certe cose, evitando i modellini giocattolo che si vedono in giro. Permalink 11:39 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Removal of skin in the game. https://twitter.com/WallStCynic/status/1255126652050378761   Permalink 10:37 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Tarde velle nolenlis est, Governor Cuomo. Permalink 9:42 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Wishes”. Andrew Cuomo “whishes he blew the bugle on the virus in January. cc: @normonics @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/VOaVVZadG3 Permalink 8:49 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@stevesong Need to apply @nntaleb’s rule. Any corporation receiving a bailout should have executive remuneration adjusted to match that of a senior gov’t bureaucrat. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1255026523855376386   Permalink 5:47 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is the first step in the dismantlement of citation rings. https://twitter.com/gfresh84173971/status/1255015591611686914?s=20   Permalink 5:25 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@renegruner1 When you haven`t heard of NNT. @nntaleb #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/bWZ9xmkkrV Permalink 5:04 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Universities: If this continues, expect tenured faculty to get serious pay cuts & to finally have to justify their existence & the USEFULNESS of their so-called “research”. Permalink 5:16 PM – 27 Apr 2020

@nntaleb There is this illusion that the economy is harmed by the reaction to the virus rather than by the virus. In fact, if anything, it is harmed by the lack of EARLY reaction to the virus. Permalink 8:54 AM – 27 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Stop the bullshit. Sweden did HORRIBLE compared to Norway Denmark Finland. Japan is an easily closed Island. Use comparable levels of connectedness. Permalink 8:28 AM – 27 Apr 2020

@nntaleb BS spotting du jour. Throughout history, we’ve ben quarantining “healthy” and “unhealthy” people. For the very reason that we only know ex post whether they are healthy or not. https://twitter.com/merlynwood/status/1254469140061892608   Permalink 8:12 AM – 27 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This was (before my weight loss) a conversation with @Confusezeus at the Fletcher School of Diplomacy in 2015. @MilenaRodban who was in the audience was told that the faculty (political science empty suits) complained that “it was not academic”. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1249445673117900800   Permalink 6:28 PM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Thread on errors in growth of pandemics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1254132648185921537?s=20   Permalink 6:17 PM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb A reasoning mistake by Johnny Evidence https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1248980856531812354   Permalink 6:15 PM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Never tell people something if they know if already and they know that you know that they know it. Permalink 10:26 AM – 26 Apr 2020

@MasaSkiba Some things never change. pic.twitter.com/AwIpZz7kq6 Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb An interesting twist: until 1860, my ancestors specialized in shipping merchandise between the Ottoman Levant and Marseilles. Permalink 8:20 AM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb How did the #Lindy crowd miss this? https://twitter.com/StearnsLab/status/1254170977103044608   Permalink 8:15 AM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “I love models,” he adds. “I do a lot of mathematical modeling myself.” No you don’t, “Johny evidence” Ioannidis. Science” is not about asymmetry in decisions: we didn’t wait for scientific evidence to know not to jump from a cliff. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176   via @WSJ Permalink 5:40 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Of course psychologists and pseudoempiricists are the first to promote danger. They were the ones who said Jan 26 that worrying about the virus was paranoia, cost us trillions so far. They don’t get multiplicative risk. Here is Phil the rat @PTetlock https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1254182701864714241?s=20   Permalink 4:02 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb These imbeciles really want to subject us to another virus. Why is why genetic modification of things that MULTIPLY fall under the (nonnaive) precautionary principle. Recall Mao’s policy to eliminate sparrows caused 50 mil to die of famine. #UnintendedConsequences https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/1254160786148200459   Permalink 3:18 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb And the converse: if X is Pareto then r is exponential (\alpha). cc:@DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/6DR5MRbnik Permalink 3:14 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Using a double exponential (Laplace) we get a power law to the right (naturally not the the left) pic.twitter.com/fLi6UbeowS Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Note you can use a double exponential (Laplace) Permalink 2:42 PM – 25 Apr 2020

Ioannidis, Tetlock, Summers, Masks, Oil, Russian Roulette, Astrology


From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben | Youtube
Published on Apr 24, 2020
+ Why the crisiss was not a Black Swan.
+ Masks compound (even if primitive)
+ Convexity Ben misleads with his “hedges”

Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (pdf 4/18/2020)

(Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine (pdf 7/31/2018)

The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System | NewYorker

As Taleb told me, “The great danger has always been too much connectivity.” Proliferating global networks, both physical and virtual, inevitably incorporate more fat-tail risks into a more interdependent and “fragile” system: not only risks such as pathogens but also computer viruses, or the hacking of information networks, or reckless budgetary management by financial institutions or state governments, or spectacular acts of terror. Any negative event along these lines can create a rolling, widening collapse—a true black swan—in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid.

Taleb: The Only Man Who Has A Clue | NakedCapitalism

Tutorial: Simple trick to see the effect of power laws | Youtube
Published on Apr 19, 2020
A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution becomes noise.
Once you establish that a variable is in the power law class, some necessary consequences come out.
To debunk that history is dominated by tail events, you must show it does not follow a power law.

@nntaleb So we can infer that the rate of growth is NOT Gaussian, must be in the borderline subexponential class. r can be negative of course. Permalink 12:54 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/5lATAOUZr7 Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Math Du Jour: What is the Distribution of Pandemics if the rate of growth follows an exponential distribution with mean 1/\lambda? Explains very simply the result with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/1StNQ7XFim Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap dichotomy you hear, as if 1) letting the virus run wild would not kill the economy 2) It is the government that is closing the economy, not pple A segment of libertarians/conservatives have a reasoning defect as they think in binary & static labels. https://twitter.com/RECusack/status/1254071852890284032   Permalink 8:41 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb So far, by substitution pic.twitter.com/MpMGzmY8Be Permalink 8:24 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a mathematical problem, only for those into math. I block cute comments that are not helpful & distract the readers. Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine workout pic.twitter.com/AC2B4T6m4V Permalink 6:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Larry Summers, advisor? Aside from his hideous track record, Summers was fiercely AGAINST putting skin in the game of decision makers. He even managed to transform my claim that it was “necessary” into “sufficient” & argued on that basis. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b14zbkx4h89y1b/larry-summers-and-nassim-taleb-go-mano-a-mano   Permalink 4:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Foreseen by @barabasi https://twitter.com/pauld198/status/1253838892597309440   Permalink 2:35 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@urcum62 Angela Merkel truly understands the Covid dynamics and the Math behind it. She also understands the diffucilties associated with low probabilities. #AngelaMerkel https://twitter.com/benjalvarez1/status/1250563198081740800   Permalink 5:37 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Looks like the govmt is hiring Kroll to investigate #RiadPonzi’s books. Kroll specializes in FRAUD, tracking transfers, etc. Permalink 12:29 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add this to the list https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1222573660952842240?s=20   Permalink 10:22 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Lebanon: #RiadPonzi Salameh is the most destructive central banker in history. He managed to stick to power for ~30 y through 10 governmnets. He is now trying to make it political. No, it is not because Hezb hates him that he is suddenly competent, honest, & principled. #Lebanon Permalink 10:11 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From the Convexity of Masks to Convexity Ben https://youtu.be/L5DCWU6heKI   via @YouTube Permalink 8:23 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/24/coronavirus-systemic-risks-black-swan-squawk-box.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar   Permalink 7:39 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The point is not whether it works or not (it may); it is just irresponsible to gamble with citizens under such opacity. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1253678040305094660   Permalink 6:53 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@hjluks Sarcopenia should be a four-lettered word … If you’re over 40 it’s happening as you read this :-( . So much badness comes from a lack of muscle mass. So much goodness comes from improving your muscle mass. https://www.howardluksmd.com/sports-medicine/muscle-mass-strength-and-longevity/   Permalink 6:32 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@Monsantobuster Best summary, Prof @nntaleb https://twitter.com/okohonen/status/1253607153857974274   Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@vibinbaburajan [Thread] Nassim Taleb’s 17 best one-line wisdom. @nntalebbot @nntaleb @TalebWisdom 1. The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary. Permalink 2:24 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo. https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1252519056403501057   Permalink 5:40 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Trying to get my head around fat-tails by studying @nntaleb’s latest technical book. Replicated some plots in #rstats #tidyverse https://david-salazar.github.io/2020/04/17/fat-vs-thin-does-lln-work/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NFuuQVhcXg”>  pic.twitter.com/NFuuQVhcXg Permalink 12:41 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I was expecting the #Lindy activists to dig out mask-wearing practices in history. For instance, the Tuareg berber tribes: men wore masks. pic.twitter.com/frToQRC8Hv Permalink 10:53 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Emanuel Derman (who knows something about probability) exposing the dangerous BS by Phil the Rat @PTetlock –whose knowledge of probability is way too primitive. https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/1252958006695911424   Permalink 9:26 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases” using Extreme Value Theory. Advice by non EVT-trained epidemiologists concerning COVID-19th tail risks is no different from advice by a carpenter concerning complex odds at roulette tables. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08658.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/FxQ5Jr9tJO”>  pic.twitter.com/FxQ5Jr9tJO Permalink 9:20 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From my dispute w/ #NoConvexityBen Meng from CALPERS (currently) largest fund on planet PRINCIPLE: Thou Shalt Not compare convex payoffs (w/ tiny downside) to linear ones (w/yuuge downside). More Basic: Thou Shalt Not Call speculative trades “hedges”. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-questions-calpers-ben-mengs-competence-and-honesty-in-defending-missed-1-billion-hedge-gain-taleb-estimates-calpers-net-loss-on-mengs-alternative-mitigation-over-two-years-at-19-billi.html   Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The safest policy is to act as if we had NO idea about the consequences of this. https://twitter.com/robkhenderson/status/1252724074335424519   Permalink 2:41 PM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are interested in masks & testing. Not in geopolitics (except on the weekend). Not in spending trillions on nuclear weapons when we can’t even get N95 masks. https://link.medium.com/fmROiAGnS5   Permalink 10:59 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1250996337530867718?s=20   Permalink 10:34 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Gambling by governments is irresponsible, even if the result turns out to be favorable. Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Our security = testing incoming passengers at JFK, not where trillions were spent: building yuuuge capabilities against very weak nations. Where are the tests? Where are the masks? Spending trillions (literally) because governments don’t understand the real sources of risk. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252932181447630848   Permalink 8:41 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paulina N is correct to emphasize the death toll. But it will be much higher as you must integrate future deaths at rate. Also missing morbidity: % of survivors end up with permanent lung & other damage. Finally, even if Sw ends up ahead (it won’t), the move is not responsible. https://twitter.com/paulinaneuding/status/1252494869559476224   Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Reduced connectivity Masks Culturally, precaution is respected https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/1252812420357083137   Permalink 4:29 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bachelier was right. https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/1252918341364256768   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pamW1RqDK4″>  pic.twitter.com/pamW1RqDK4 Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New hobby thanks to lockdown: Olympic lifts https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1252758824689242112   Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom Here is one of my favorite @nntaleb quotes: “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.” Permalink 1:37 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Joe is good. Very good. Should we start calling him “Sherlock Shipman”? https://twitter.com/joe_shipman/status/1252668127495806977   Permalink 3:39 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LINDY Quarantine & restriction of mobility are Lindy; they are present in the old testament & in Islam: “If you’re away, & disease breaks out, you stay there. If home, you stay home.” https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1252443190499717121   Permalink 2:19 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@DrAmithaMD Waited for this… such a good analysis on whether #COVID19 was a rare event (it was, but we ignored the signs). “The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System” @nntaleb https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker&utm_social-type=earned   via @NewYorker @bavishai Permalink 12:09 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman STATISTICAL INFERENCE PUZZLE @nntaleb Is “2 false positives in 401 trials” consistent with “50 false positives in 3300 trials”? What is a good null hypothesis, and what is the p-value? Permalink 8:05 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Actually slight modification to the great results by “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis. You don’t need Jensen to prove the inequality pic.twitter.com/AbQI9rbcDQ Permalink 6:51 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The Trump Administration is suspending immigration owing to the Corovirus pandemic after discovering the interesting epidemiological property that (documented) immigrants are highly infectious, but tourists & business visitors are not. Permalink 6:48 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Another grave error in the “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis & friends paper, not too dissimilar to Simpson’s paradox, (also spotted by @gian_rinaldi, private communication): They don’t get the convexity of divisions. If a result doesn’t make sense & comes from nerds, it is wrong. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1252549640714665984   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/afMaSqvF0Y”>  pic.twitter.com/afMaSqvF0Y Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@ishirubi Ok I can go rest in peace now: pic.twitter.com/cYAIlQsLFF Permalink 3:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) This is from Dynamic Hedging (1997), with a discussion of fungibility and first deliverable contract. pic.twitter.com/BTDXA6Bc7k Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Oil: The basis is out of whack because of storage. It is like being stuck in traffic in a Bentley, and no possibility of leaving it so you need to pay someone to take it from you. Permalink 12:30 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@paulanawfal من كم شهر رحت لأحضر ندوة ل @nntaleb بالجامعة اليسوعية وما كان في وسعى مبارح حضرت الإعادة وهيدا المقطع هو المفضل الي بالندوة #RamsusRiad pic.twitter.com/00vLBPkT4w Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Every #RWRI we discuss the situation how *oil above ground* (hence the front oil future) can sqeeze suckers and have a negative value because it can be impossible to store during a glut and impossible to abandon because of EPA. Negative optionality from liability. https://twitter.com/business/status/1252298699792883713   Permalink 11:56 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #protectyourpension #CalPERS #tailrisk #tailhedge https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/press-ferrets-out-more-falsehoods-by-calpers-cio-ben-meng-evidence-of-poor-leadership-in-giving-up-1-billion-hedge-payday.html   https://www.wsj.com/articles/calpers-unwound-hedges-just-before-marchs-epic-stock-selloff-11587211200   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/J3rUY6vc60″>  pic.twitter.com/J3rUY6vc60 Permalink 9:51 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2015: When people ask me to talk about RISK, I talk about epidemics. Not ISIS, not journalistic BS. [I lost weight and increased by Max DL by 100 lbs since] https://youtu.be/DDdBTaLjGIo   via @YouTube Permalink 9:08 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Sorry, I meant he doesn’t get that car accidents are not multiplicative. IOANNIDIS: Here we have someone doing probability & lecturing people on probability errors who like this ignorant Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock has never heard of Chernoff bounds. Permalink 7:54 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis, in his argumentation, reasoning, and demeanor reminds me of what we call “a pre-blown up trader”. He doesn’t get (among other things) that driving 9 to 415 miles is not multiplicative and CONTAGIOUS. https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1249941253887844352   Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a statistical signal abt HQN to ADDRESS even if Zelenko, like Raoult, doesn’t look like Dr. Could be: samples of large “anecdotes” are biased, or NY & Marseilles hide the dead. Note that the media DOES NOT require a double blind for Gilead. Explain the dual standards. https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1252180245760937996   Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@balajis Just-the-flu journalists failed across the board. That includes Fox, and the NYT reporter now denouncing Fox. pic.twitter.com/tnSaw7LWOG Permalink 3:16 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Compare the richest countries, such as Sweden, making a “tradoff” (which is not even a tradeoff anyway) compared to much poorer places in the East Med, India, or China that wouldn’t even remotely consider a Faustian bargain. Shame. Wealth brings moral degeneracy. Permalink 2:25 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb GERONTICIDE is the sign of moral decay. Indian official explained only “rich” countries make a tradeoff betw lives & “economy” (assuming they are separable). The argument of “lockdown costing lives” is bunk: in the poor country, India, ~nobody starved. The richer, the worse!!! Permalink 1:30 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to understand stuff. It took a pandemic for that. I never never dreamed that my Russian Roulette argument would be expressed by those against whom I have used it over the past 2 decades. pic.twitter.com/Xih2Vse1Ft Permalink 10:57 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution is NOISE. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhTHG3QmVwM&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 10:04 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo on the Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases. Explains our attitude towards the disease; why epidemiological models are largely NOISE. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rats will also be liars. “Phil the rat” @PTetlock is misrepresenting the reason I call him a rat. It is for spending years trying to publicly discredit our concern for tail payoff, ergodicity w/o a slightest clue abt the statistical implication of power laws, even probability. Permalink 7:06 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Solution. This friend of mine found the trick. If there is (cc) on Youtube you can see both the subtitles in the original language and the transcript in English. pic.twitter.com/ZhHkwO8D0z Permalink 4:19 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add: the IYI was wrong on masks, mobility, multiplicative risks, etc. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1251827685841608704   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Alternative explanations are 1) ouzo (what we call in the Levant “the milk of lions”), 2) Orthodoxy: Unlike Spain, Greece celebrates Easter on the correct calendar, 3) Greek coffee (a.k.a. Turkish). Otherwise quite convincing. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1251704323035344896   Permalink 3:20 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@SrinivasR1729 Go down deep enough into anything and you will find mathematics. pic.twitter.com/EUP0mV41u6 Permalink 12:12 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/JeE1psGJKF Permalink 4:56 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Learned to cook linguini with squid ink. Who needs restaurants when you have 1) internet access, 2) good olive oil, 3) really fresh garlic & parsley, 4) fresh tomatoes, 5) good white wine, 6) salt, etc. pic.twitter.com/JDDogjGEF7 Permalink 4:53 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Currently people testing positive (or presumptive positive) are sent home to infect their families. Where is the outrage? There should be other options so that families will be safe. Every community, state and country, should have a “Safe Family” program. Permalink 4:23 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, this friend of mine wants to watch a Greek movie with both Greek and English subtitles. Netflix can do it in other languages, not Greek (he is based in the US). Is there a way to do it? Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Χριστός Ανέστη ! Permalink 11:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@artemon Seems like a great case of absence of evidence being treated like evidence of absence, plus violating the precautionary principle. Thank you @nntaleb for teaching me to see these clearly. https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/no-need-to-wipe-down-food-packaging-during-coronavirus-pandemic-fda-says/amp/   Permalink 10:35 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nobody realized that for Lebanon, Greece, Cyprus, & Marseilles, the real reason of the low rate of Corona infections/fatalities is the arak/ouzo/pastis. Experiments show you need to drink it during & before every meal for it to be effective. And try the purest you can find. pic.twitter.com/XQzIIs0L4N Permalink 8:48 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bravo #Lebanon. Early paranoia pays! pic.twitter.com/CU5yP416tf Permalink 4:47 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb What is behind, among others, the moniker “Phil the rat” @PTetlock. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1250994645041131522   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@berndschiffer And also @nntaleb ‘s “new kind of ingratitude” comes to mind. “Who is more valuable, the politician who avoids a war or the one who starts a new one (and is lucky enough to win)?” #COVID19Aus #COVID pic.twitter.com/UXLn1kAOMs Permalink 3:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@uair01 Nice picture of extremistan versus mediocristan mortality and why ” Covid is different: @nntaleb @trishankkarthik https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1251113801384185858   Permalink 7:40 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@stevenstrogatz Yes, @nntaleb practices what he preaches. On the day we met, he walked me around New York for seven hours and enjoyed a plate of pasta with squid ink. https://twitter.com/humankarp/status/1248240881666347008   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DhhphvMtrp”>  pic.twitter.com/DhhphvMtrp Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Drowning in swimming pools is extremely contagious and multiplicative. https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1250975504401760256   Permalink 4:19 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb HITS THE SPOT: “What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists & virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisons and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about.” https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html   Permalink 5:23 PM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb OK, OK. Thanks @yvessmith https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html   Permalink 11:57 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: In Judeo-Arabic Baghdad seems to be spelled בגדד not בעדד(with a gimmel not a ghayn) (unlike more historical غزة-> עזה or Gomorrah עֲמֹרָה not גמֹרָה from transliteration Γομορραν) (pharyngeal [ʕ] not epiglottal [ʢ.) When was the غ lost in Hebrew? Permalink 10:50 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Why you cannot use epidemiological models with point estimates when variables are stochastic. An illustration. You end up with a crazy distribution of outcomes, get fooled. This is our problem with the UK “model”. pic.twitter.com/yBk1AygMwN Permalink 9:36 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is potentially yuuuuge. Do not miss. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1250088423450435588   Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I don’t know if he (and those liking the graph) realize that an R-squared of .15 means, if you look at it generously, that almost all the variance is for random reasons, something like ~98% (conventional) or (entropy) >99.9%. @salilstatistics https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821828891250688   Permalink 4:52 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@Jac5Connor Nassim asks an important question: Do masks cause earthquakes? I bet this is why the WHO took so long to recommend them. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249760833967656961   Permalink 1:14 PM – 13 Apr 2020

@gernelle «Une catégorie de personnes ne cesse d’augmenter(…) plus douées pour expliquer que pour comprendre. Ou plus douées pour expliquer que pour faire.” ⁦@nntaleb⁩ cité par ⁦@sebastienlefol⁩ dans un édito percutant #covid ⁦@LePoint⁩ https://www.lepoint.fr/tiny/1-2371181   Permalink 11:40 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Just explained in a lecture that risk management and “science” are not the same thing. Risk is about asymmetries. With .1% error rate, few flight attendants would be alive. pic.twitter.com/mTZMi4YKaK Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Do not conflate doing science and being nice and polite to scientists. Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, another robust question to get the convexity. How many people contracted COVID while wearing surgical masks? How many w/N95? How many with cowboy scarves? (Assume for now homogeneity. We are looking for convexity, not measurement). Permalink 7:13 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We have a hint: @dzviovich just sent me something useful: comparison of US vs CZ w/a single sign. difference: edict to wear maks. We know masks work (from other combined statistical signals). Now let’s back up the convexity of probability of infection to particle concentration. pic.twitter.com/H2KNgiptX5 Permalink 7:06 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We need to get the probability of getting sick at different concentration of droplets. We could probably back it up (or get a handle on the convexity) from country data (Czech republic). Intuition: reduction of 70% of particles is yuuuge: home masks should work. Plus if 2-way! pic.twitter.com/Fd4nQ8Pxmr Permalink 6:53 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb There is something about “ceteris paribus” (everything else being constant) for a marginal property that commentators are not getting. Permalink 5:36 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@spwells An excerpt from my interview with @VanceCrowe discussing why the Coronavirus pandemic isn’t a black swan event. @nntaleb https://youtu.be/wjUp6EKEI7k   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/emiTijIbp4″>  pic.twitter.com/emiTijIbp4 Permalink 5:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The answer is by @Physical_Prep which maps to the 2/3 scaling exponent found by Geoffrey West. It depends on your level of course as you can see. https://twitter.com/Physical_Prep/status/1249478047478276100?s=20   Permalink 4:45 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb WEIGHTLIFTING Friends, for every additional 10lbs of say deadlift how many additional pounds of muscle mass would be gained? Approximately of course. Permalink 3:07 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I’ve lost weight since. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1249445673117900800   Permalink 2:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@normonics John Conway lost to coronavirus. That is terrible news. Conway’s game of life is something I always show at #RWRI. NEVER fails to make the floating lightbulbs above everyone’s heads spark on. RIP https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1249439501585453056   Permalink 1:54 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday! And, to those on the non-Orthodox calendar, Happy Easter! Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That’s for an individual. If everyone wore *VERY BAD* masks, I guess the number of deaths would drop by a yuuuge factor, maybe 90%. Why? p is probability of infection, look at 1-p^n because everyone is reducing. For 2 pple masks act a 2-way filter, 1-p^2. Yuuge. Permalink 4:44 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The proof is in https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/I7ibmge5EY”>  pic.twitter.com/I7ibmge5EY Permalink 4:30 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to viruses by 30% thanks to an “imperfect” mask does not mean reducing risk of contracting the disease by just 30%. By convexity, it must be more than 30%, can even be 95%. Permalink 4:22 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Treading *absence of evidence* as *evidence of absence* is a form of overoptimization. Permalink 3:52 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman https://www.npr.org/2020/04/10/830348837/covid-19-patients-given-unproven-drug-in-texas-nursing-home-garnering-criticism   This is an very evil article. It may not be apparent at first why I make such a serious charge. But I stand by it. It is viciously slanted with sophistical language and manipulative presentation, even though the truth can be discerned anyway. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb and… the NYT and science journos and ignorant “evidence based” epidemiologists who can’t read absence of evidence got us here. Don’t blame mayors who shut down cities, blame misinformation about masks and mobility. Blame the New York Times. Permalink 6:49 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb It’s not the reaction that wrecked the economy. It’s the LACK of INITIAL reaction that wrecked the economy. Proper border controls on Jan 26, plus masks & tests & we’d be fine now. The @CDC, @WHO, UK Gov helped spread disinformation. After 3 m, still no masks & tests!!! Permalink 6:38 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Correction: Does Big Pharma own the media? Permalink 3:22 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chloroquine: Does Big Pharma owns the media? + Studies are said to be “not rigorous” when it comes to Chloroquine in spite of robust statistical signal + Studies w/less rigor and significance are promoted when it comes to drugs by Gilead Note: Chl was OTC, costs 1 Euro a pack. pic.twitter.com/UU2URRxWNV Permalink 3:19 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Managed to sneak in 2 footnotes for my new book related to COVID before the printing starts. https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/1544508050/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=taleb+tails&qid=1586634894&sr=8-1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/9XRe6AxUsg”>  pic.twitter.com/9XRe6AxUsg Permalink 12:57 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best therapy; lowers our anxiety and helps organize our minds while facing mild uncertainty. Aesthetic and harmless; unlike economics and social “science”. Discussed in #FooledbyRandomness https://twitter.com/viggiereggae/status/1249038310405701632   Permalink 11:34 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@birdxi1988 This is how @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam and @normonics ‘s Precautionary Principle destroys the evidence-based practices. In January, they specifically warned that the estimated R0 would be biased downwards. Guess what, CDC says that R0 appears to be 5.7 vs. 2.2-2.7 previously thought! pic.twitter.com/xP9BOb4Jl3 Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@davidsarac What Nassim Nicholas Taleb is showing us by his persistent rudeness is that things one is ready to be rude about are worthy of understanding too In terms of evolutionary dynamics, it is a cry of the bird warning other birds predator is approaching Permalink 10:54 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb More elegant. It is hard to live on a planet where the most cited person in epidemiology, John Ioannidis, doesn’t understand exponential, hence multiplication. Yet he tries to make policy. pic.twitter.com/iZadn4eaUK Permalink 8:57 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Wrong. Levantine coast had 5 additional Greek areas. Plus Berytus and Baalbeck spoke mainly Latin owing to Law school and Roman resettlements. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1248733254838075392   Permalink 7:43 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis does not get that model uncertainty WORSENS possible outcomes under exponential growth & should lead to MORE reaction. Dangerous ignorance. Here is a derivation from Jensen’s ineq. pic.twitter.com/XGUtqlR2py Permalink 7:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@pierrewaters Localism & mafia: news the @nntaleb crew will like: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents   Permalink 5:28 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:18 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@mikeharrisNY Their logic and yours is wrong. Because doors sometimes fail to stop thieves, does it mean we should not have doors? Is this what is proposed? Can someone be so dump? Apparently, yes. Permalink 1:59 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rightwing sociopathic quacks like @BjornLomborg: are ALWAYS on the wrong side of things precautionary, (including climate). Saying “no worse than the flu” was ignorant 3 months ago; saying it after data from the past few weeks is outright malfeasance. @Twitter blocks fakenews. https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1248666930313134083   Permalink 4:02 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From @RupertRead: states that Precautionary Principle applies ONLY to specific multiplicative things/power law call with alpha<2 Beware misinformaiton by frauds such as the rat @PTetlock & shill @Dgardner making it look like undirected paranoia (Martians invading the planet). pic.twitter.com/yDKmdBOebW Permalink 12:15 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Very encouraging to see young Lebanese from all backgrounds attacking the shill #MarcelGhanem for making an antisemitic remark. Things have changed! https://twitter.com/firasmaksad/status/1248638888970727426   Permalink 11:53 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Everyone must see!!! https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1248234206582300673   Permalink 11:23 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@BrankoMilan Indeed, after every seasonal flu, NYC does mass graves… How can people write such easily contradicted things is beyond me to understand. https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1248666930313134083   Permalink 10:42 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Many solutions, mostly @SrinivasR1729 This tidies the whole “ting”. pic.twitter.com/bV6N71TcZj Permalink 10:40 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@eassily Hah ! @nntaleb and @byzantinepower would appreciate this pic.twitter.com/3U68wb9hXp Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Weekend distraction. By @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/IStnXBEU2H Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best part about this is that I can walk in the park without being asked for a selfie (or an autograph) by a graduate student in computer science at the local university. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1246091194557509632   Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Yes, office transmission is much much much more controlled than cross-geographical superspreaders. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1248339170810044417   Permalink 1:01 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, real heroes. And criminal neglect by risk-blind “evidence based” bureaucrats. And, friends, in the meanwhile, wear a mask. Again, than you all the Dr Chowdhurys. https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/1248236912298676224   Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Serious business (weight trainining): Friends (@GrantSSC & others), how long, after a *true* 5RM or 1RM deadlift (meaning you can’t redo it right away), does it take to recover at 100% and redo it? 20 minutes? 4 hours? 3 days? Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Fat tails. Reduce superspreaders. https://twitter.com/pauld198/status/1243322026166636545   Permalink 9:01 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@cdipaola62 @Judgenap thoughts on prospect of class action lawsuits against hospitals/health systems? Will the nurse’s unions put pressure on in other ways? Interested in your opinion. @nntaleb @CalNurses @MassNurses https://twitter.com/ppe4medics/status/1248220605092179970   Permalink 5:25 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Most “evidence based” IYIs use statistical tools they don’t understand AND are deprived of the logical faculties of grandmothers, which explains the explosive blunders of @WHO, “science” journos, @CassSunstein, @R_Thaler, idiots like @PTetlock the rat, etc. https://twitter.com/Amellal1490/status/1248211351232753664   Permalink 5:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb FAT TAIL PROPERTY 90-98% of the diffusion can be reduced by limiting superspreaders & forcing masks: + Subways/buses + Conferences (especially involving psychologists/behavioral economists) + Planes + Elevators + Bars with bad Negronis + Indoor restaurants/cafés Rest is normal. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1248046032119713795   Permalink 5:42 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Statistically, you should see much more of this. The system imposes some #Skininthegame: those who inflict risks on others are subjected themselves to the same risks. As with Boris. Sad. https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/pastor-who-criticized-coronavirus-mass-hysteria-dies-from-illness/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons   via @nypost Permalink 1:45 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@mncube This is how @nntaleb trades https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1247933676874334208   Permalink 11:17 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb And Mr @david_perell if you need ancestry for my version of “skin in the game”, you don’t go up to Steve Jobs. Try harder and deeper into history: Hammurabi, >3750 years ago. Permalink 11:15 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice try, @david_perell He is using the term “skin in the game” as incentive not as risk asymmetry (be responsible for the harm you do). Try again. https://twitter.com/david_perell/status/1247922133784612864   Permalink 11:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR February in Chr Aramaic is Shbat,ܫܒܳܛ, “blows” from ” רוח נשבת” (the wind blows, original Accadian Šabātu) hence “windy month”. (Others were ~Babylonian gods). Remarkably the French Revolution renamed “Ventôse” (windy month) the span from Feb ~19-March 19. Permalink 6:58 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Adding to the prior retweet to say that Nassim’s 2019 paper linked below plus the recent work of @ole_b_peters and @alex_adamou on ergodicity economics have been hugely influential to me not just in thinking about option pricing, but thinking about long-dated risk generally. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1247875980619898880   Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb You did not need recent events to get that the mean-variance based methods, along with RISK PARITY used in finance (by many funds) are a fraud. I explained the details in #TheBlackSwan See paper how we (my friends & I) price options under power laws. https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mHYZk0W0ok”>  pic.twitter.com/mHYZk0W0ok Permalink 6:16 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In a hospital if you are dealing with patients. But in social life you don’t have the exposure and, critically, BOTH have masks. https://twitter.com/ndehouche/status/1247561146829160453?s=20   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry. Never bail out without clawback. https://twitter.com/premnsikka/status/1247646108144320513   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I revealed it at the USJ lecture last November, from data from (among others) Toufic Gaspard (live on national TV). #RiadPonzi then launched a smear campaign. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU&t=3960s   https://twitter.com/loubnanouna1/status/1247840083631394817   Permalink 4:04 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@GMWatch Powerful condemnation of the UK govt’s failure to follow the #PrecautionaryPrinciple over #COVID19 — by UEA professor @RupertRead, who together with @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @normonics & others, has for months repeatedly been demanding precautionary action to save lives. https://twitter.com/RupertRead/status/1247600027712647168   Permalink 3:41 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3)Other fallacy is by the *tradeoff idiots* who don’t get: a) even if governments did nothing, airplanes & restaurants would be bust by now as # pple are doing bottom-up quarantines b)hospitals would be overwhelmed c)millions of young sick (many w/permanent damage) d)+uncertainty Permalink 5:45 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) I meant don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want *your children* to treat you! Actually the “triage” (sacrificing the old) is a new European thing introduced in Italy; Roman society worshiped & protected the elders. Same with Eastern societies. (Senatus=Sheikh=elder). Permalink 5:17 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Aside from the pathetic modeling behind the “herd immunity”: it is morally repulsive. Civilization RESIDES in the enforcement of intergenerational golden (actuallly, silver rules): don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want them to treat you! From #SkinInTheGame #Incerto pic.twitter.com/fzB2W5kWpE Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@spwells Spread of the Olive Tree in the Mediterranean Basin ⁦@PZalloua⁩ ⁦@nntaleb⁩ https://vividmaps.com/olive-tree-in-the-mediterranean-bassin/   Permalink 11:25 AM – 7 Apr 2020

Sue, @WHO, NYT, LOCALISM, Chloroquine, Asymmetry, Masks, Branson, @CassSunstein, Superforecasters, De Blasio

The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon)

Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You
(With Mark Spitznagel)

Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their own stock (so the CEO gets optionality), instead of building a rainy day buffer? Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favoring the fool and the rent-seeker.

Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist

 

@nntaleb Flooded by journo/TV/podcts to talk abt #BlackSwan My business is research/writing, not conversing w/ bullshitters; they shd read my books… & tweets! Harari has a staff of 12 handling stuff. Me: staff of 0, but email robot deletes interview requests not from friends. Gabish? Permalink 10:12 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The legal system will fix the problem. Sue owners (private equity funds) & managers for knowingly endangering your life. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1247561089233158146   Permalink 9:44 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb As I said, the problem we face is “science” journalism. A real problem. #AbsenceofEvidenceisNotEvidenceofAbsenceParticularlyUnderRiskAsymmetries https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1247506964046843905?s=20   Permalink 8:05 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Something tells me the quarantine might last longer than planned. pic.twitter.com/FGJNOKgYA8 Permalink 4:50 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Levantine is not Arabic Permalink 7:08 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I can provide some training if you need, @NAChristakis. God (or evolution) invented curse words for a reason. https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1247338300706361345   Permalink 6:55 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Idiots! Scientism kills pple’s innate reasoning abilities & survival instinct You don’t wear a mask jus because you have evidence that transmission is airborne. You wear a mask because YOU DON’T KNOW whether transmission is airborne. #Asymmetry. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/   Permalink 6:22 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Il faut arrêter de me casser les pieds! Marseille, en anglais, s’écrit avec un s. Permalink 3:18 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@PaulSkallas he ended up deleting the tweet pic.twitter.com/LEbF4jI7bB Permalink 1:36 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I wrote this for Mike’s children for them to understand statistical significance, something Bloomberg, Forbes, NYT journalists are not getting yet spreading confusion. So unless they cook their numbers in Marseilles, there is preliminary significance. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1246809237050871810?s=20   Permalink 12:43 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@ejajo Written in 2016, happening now: “They can thus cause monstrous iatrogenics[1] without even feeling a shade of a guilt, because they are convinced that they mean well and that they can be thus justified to ignore the deep effect on reality.” [1] Harm done by the healer. #IYI Permalink 12:33 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Not surprising given my analysis of the Marseilles data (see tweet w/the Mathematica file). The question is how large the effect. Also why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? OK, he’s the most cited virologist who talks on TV like a TV healer; doesn’t help. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/491358-cuomo-use-of-antimalarial-drug-in-new-york-hospitals-anecdotally?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true   Permalink 12:21 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@BiruniKhorasan According to all accounts, Ibn Sina did not suffer fools. The more I read about him, the more he reminds me of @nntaleb If Ibn Sina lived in 2020 and had an encounter with a fool on Twitter, he would first call him “idiot” and then block him. 100% positive. Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I a preparing an elementary thread on what risk management means and how “evidence based” is often endangering people. Permalink 10:39 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In by forthcoming book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails pic.twitter.com/F7ECEhiwzB Permalink 10:26 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The IYI has a copy of The Black Swan on his shelves but mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence. (article from 3 ½ years ago) https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   Permalink 9:36 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots such as Ioannidis not getting absence of evidence vs evidence of absence in the risk domain. https://youtu.be/FUgHKX0clhU   via @YouTube Permalink 8:19 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That NYT? +Ran articles about irrationality of worrying about the pandemic +Opposed the travel ban +Now blaming the administration for not having stiffer travel ban https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1246776199805898752   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/czrGEeI6Lu”>  pic.twitter.com/czrGEeI6Lu Permalink 7:25 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Criminally stupid. https://twitter.com/Dhruvapandey/status/1247092388033490944   Permalink 4:15 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Evidence based” means that she recommended in her Forbes column in late February that people wear no masks. Yes, NO masks. Because absence of evidence is not evidence based. It is hard to share the planet with such dangerous people. https://twitter.com/tarahaelle/status/1246939663086075906   Permalink 4:31 PM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Good news from Lebanon. This is the cabinet meeting in early March (when Boris & Trump had their full mugs exposed). They acted quickly. They have <20 death (~4.5 mil) 100 times less than than NY. Acting quickly pays. And wear your fucking mask! pic.twitter.com/5Ngit7ByMC Permalink 11:10 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Now, either @raoult_didier’s treatment (chloroquine) is incontrovertibly effective or, + More people are dead than claimed (in Marseilles the dead have been actively voting since the Fr. revolution) + He treats pple who don’t need treatment + Something in the water/confounder Permalink 10:51 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) Genetics & misunderstanding of dimensionality https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   Permalink 9:54 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The work in progress is here. Not yet the curse of dimensionality. 1) Correlation https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Fooled_by_Correlation_Common_Misinterpretations_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 9:53 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Once we are done with the epidemiological models, we will show why polygenic scores produce spurious results like these & why this claim is PURE noise. Hint: curse of dimensionality, paper to come. PS–genetics is a mess. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1246759506325000193   Permalink 8:52 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Mike Lawler (@mikeandallie) should make his kids derive the significance of the Raoult chloroquine results, a trivial illustration –something that seems to escape medical commentators. pic.twitter.com/IUeVtw57ff Permalink 7:37 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@DrSamPappas Excellent map @ByzantinFR of genetic lineages and overlap of civilizations @_Tom_Pappas @amyriolo @MikeEmanuelFox of Eastern Mediterranean regions as inspired by a tweet from @nntaleb summer 2019 https://twitter.com/ByzantinFR/status/1138442256741031938   Permalink 7:02 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I am amazed that an error that eludes “evidence based” “scientists”, nonprobabilist statisticians, Pinker-style naive empiricists… is explained very simply by Mike to his kids. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1246785515258511360   Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Explaining an important statistical idea in @nntaleb ‘s “What you see and what you don’t see” paper to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2020/04/05/sharing-a-neat-statistical-result-from-one-of-nassim-talebs-papers-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:03 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Department of hindsight: the NYT is now blaming mobility. Yet they were publishing crap saying it was not rational to panic when Yaneer, Joe, and I were advocating what looked like an “overreaction”. https://nyti.ms/3bUTtQn   Permalink 5:26 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No soft allowed; hint: you can prove the limit though using special functions. (Please note that I have been blocking those posting snide remarks; this is ONLY for those into these things.) Permalink 6:38 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine Workout pic.twitter.com/OhvzMh32XW Permalink 5:55 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam BMJ published a paper with a basic simple error and incorrect conclusions. I submitted a note but didn’t retract yet. Link to the paper and comment attached. @nntaleb https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sFZj3KWfie”>  pic.twitter.com/sFZj3KWfie Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NickyWill100 @nntaleb’s Grandmother knew that you dummies. https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1246551885621923841   Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NAChristakis People who are dying of COVID19 will need first-rate palliative (hospice) care. This is going to be especially the case for people who are denied ventilators or who are taken off of them (i.e., who are “extubated”). Let’s talk about this painful and poignant fact. 1/ Permalink 2:24 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@tony_zy This @Forbes article on Feb.29, when the virus was quietly spreading, still haunts me today. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/02/29/no-you-do-not-need-face-masks-for-coronavirus-they-might-increase-your-infection-risk/#24bbfdb1676c   Permalink 6:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@HsenAndil She3er Malte 3an l Malte cc: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvpBReQ0MP Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1246331981270593536   Permalink 4:45 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb With (some) corrections pic.twitter.com/psXN7loNHl Permalink 4:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This 2 page paper should put the nail in the coffin of “evidence based” science and risk management. Any comments? Posting on ArXiv & looking for a journal as it is a new result in Extreme Value Theory. pic.twitter.com/dAKW7ZVjwx Permalink 3:50 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The most important aspect of fasting is that you feel deep undirected gratitude when you break the fast.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:02 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice summary. https://twitter.com/PoornimaL/status/1246209695745966080   Permalink 4:23 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, on the EXPECTED Maximum (i.e. average maximum), not the Maximum expected. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Be careful. The problem with work related conversations on web apps during this period is that, unlike water cooler schmoozes, everything you say can be recorded for life. Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM The higher you go the more incompetence/reckelessness (with small exceptions). If this virus ever teaches anything, it is localism. You Your family Your town Your region/county/state Federal Gov: CDC The UN/@WHO Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Surprised? No. Jobless claims has ALWAYS been power law distributed. These idiotic macroeconomists never realized it. As I said in The Black Swan econometricians are charlatans, & will STAY charlatans. My new book SCFT explains in details. pic.twitter.com/OX0IWbgzQU Permalink 7:15 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. Under such fatness of tails for pandemics, policy is made off the expected maximum, not from scenarios devoid of error terms. Just like flood policy in the low countries. See Paper with @DrCirillo https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6   Permalink 5:12 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@johnepattison I mean this sincerely, not snarkily: Smart people I follow here — @nntaleb and @chrismartenson — have been saying for weeks that everyone should be wearing masks. What else are those people saying that we should act on NOW rather waiting until later? Permalink 4:10 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@aPosteriorChain It is now clear that someone at @WHO has a dying wish to be called an imbecile by @nntaleb, this is the only possible explanation pic.twitter.com/PjikwoAcxA Permalink 3:30 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Albert-Laszlo @barabasi was waaaaaaay ahead in determining tail events consistent w/statistics described *ahead* of time –such as cascading failures leading to power outages. I recall the power failure in NY in 2003. You must take him seriously. #PrecautionaryPrinciple https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/1245520814881091584   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vsQSvsT3M3″>  pic.twitter.com/vsQSvsT3M3 Permalink 2:42 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “There is something common to modern “liberal” and Sunni-Salafi education: They teach students answers rather than how to ask questions.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 1:27 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Remember the talk about herd immunity, or letting young people get sick and work? Stopping it fast is the only way. https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/1245520814881091584   Permalink 12:47 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The general public is more creative than bureaucrats. https://twitter.com/PLATOheraclitus/status/1245753847362072577?s=20   Permalink 9:44 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb IYI bureaucrats opposed to masks used (bogus) arguments abt the protection of the wearer (“not perfect”, etc.) They didn’t think that since it ALSO prevents (more effectively) ASYMPTOMATIC sick pple from spreading it, there wd be yuuge systemic effect. PS: @WHO is a fraud. Permalink 9:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@allisonpearson Of all the cruel things, the inability to rush to comfort the dying, or to comfort the bereaved after a loved one has died, may be the cruellest. #coronavirus Permalink 9:26 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@swani741 Please get on the case of this bc Pharma & their allies in corporate media are going to do everything in their power to discredit this cheap & widely available drug & anyone being honest about it. . https://www.cbsnews.com/news/merck-created-hit-list-to-destroy-neutralize-or-discredit-dissenting-doctors/   Permalink 8:59 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, an obvious test w/asymmetric signal: How many pple treated for rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, or malaria by a *certain* dosage of chloroquine or hydrochquine have been under ventilation for corona vs rest of local population? Answer wld be a v. strong statistical signal. Permalink 8:05 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@CharlestonArchi After the plague, I hope that @nntaleb will do to charlatanism in academic architecture what he has done to IQ, psychology, social sciences, etc. It would be a joy to watch it unfold here on Twitter. This glorious exchange is from 2018: pic.twitter.com/Cc3SQ4mDQh Permalink 5:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Il revient beaucoup, beaucoup moins cher de fermer ses frontières que de fermer ses: magasins, usines, écoles, bureaux, bordels, restaurants, cafés, stades, salles de dance, facs, glaciers, musées, écoles de ping-pong… https://twitter.com/RomainVallee/status/1245087352961335311   Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Govt policy (when dealing with floods or pandemics) is dictated by the expected maxima of the distribution of harm, rather than the mean.” “Evidence-based” methods naively work with the expected mean, not the extremes. (paper agst BS “forecasting”) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4Il3bwOdaF”>  pic.twitter.com/4Il3bwOdaF Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@vtchakarova Yes, more or less. You take the #RWRI pill – you end up in Incerto-land, and Taleb shows you how deep the rabbit hole goes! I am launching our first Vienna #RWRI virtual meeting with the other two RWRI alumni @Arquitect3 and @MrFels this weekend. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/lucklepper/status/1245638289270296577   Permalink 2:14 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors will BS vend. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1245334867178655745   Permalink 5:04 PM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New version of our paper on the tails of pandemics w/@DrCirillo With a key sentence to understand why epidemiological models become noise –as well as other attempts to forecast outcomes. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cw07iCOyOt”>  pic.twitter.com/Cw07iCOyOt Permalink 10:17 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Follow the money: Many people like @Kevinfolta and this charlatan @dgardner (phil the rat Tetlock’s @Ptetlock coauthor) are directly (or indirectly) paid to say that the Precautionary Principle is crap. https://twitter.com/HomegrownJoan/status/1245355452646506496   Permalink 7:24 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 5) This article makes me shiver, reminds me of the Monsanto days: pharma can BUY science. https://twitter.com/momotchiii/status/1245341089969713152?s=20   Permalink 6:29 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 4) Again the question is WHY did @WHO try to AVOID testing something yet claim “data is sparce”. You test PRECISELY because data is sparce! https://twitter.com/aknappjr/status/1245337709897322496?s=20   Permalink 6:21 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Now we still DON’T KNOW YET if chloroquine helps, but owing to an asymmetry I would pick it over nothing any minute. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Even in St Georges Hospital in Lebanon they get stuff like this. In NY and Italy, doctors are ignoring “official” guidelines & applying the Raoult therapy early on. Note: Raoult knows his stuff about patients/treatment, not the dynamics of epidemics. pic.twitter.com/V8sTAdXugz Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb SUSPICIOUS: + Why the WHO bias against masks & Chloroquine? Latter used by doctors in NY, Italy (combination) in early stages. + Why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? He is the most cited viologist + Recall statistical BS in Forbes/Bloomberg + Pharma shut down a factory in France pic.twitter.com/5O9DD2x36N Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@VergilDen It’s during these times of crisis that it’s good to remind yourself of those simpler days. For me, the time when Taleb and I sampled all the goodness that is Italy. I will always savor those days like one does a fine lemoncello. Gindon! https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1112642427192393729   Permalink 4:11 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@Samuel_NET @nntaleb has been saying this all along. WHO was wrong. https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1244993914962051072   Permalink 8:01 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@RomainVallee 21/02 dans LePoint. Nassim Taleb conseillant à la France de fermer immédiatement ses frontières . https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1230878610023731202?s=21   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1230878610023731202   Permalink 1:35 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb People can MAKE their own mask. Do not insult the public’s intelligence. https://twitter.com/RinaldoDaCosta/status/1245034220470362113?s=20   Permalink 10:17 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 850,000 now https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1231770358753173505   Permalink 10:04 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Surgeon General should be sued. We will have plenty of time to bring these dangerous idiots to account. https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/1244957027585134592   Permalink 10:02 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@Allvvaro Absolutely loving them while in quarantine. I don’t know why I waited so long to start reading them, but it feels like de f****** right time now. Gracias @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ll0WJ2jged Permalink 9:51 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Serge Galam too; he is angry, very angry https://www.liberation.fr/debats/2020/03/24/masques-mais-de-qui-se-moque-t-on_1782908   via @libe Permalink 8:40 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry: error FROM NOT wearing masks is vastly costlier than the error FROM wearing masks. This would be elementary for grandmothers (decision makers under uncertainty) but something about the @WHO & the @CDCgov w/”evidence based” BS is suspiciously blind to such a notion! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1244975847855054850   Permalink 6:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now I am not saying that masks work there, rather that owing to an asymmetry you MUST wear one. Decision-making in real life is based on asymmetries. That’s the entire message of the Incerto! Permalink 6:12 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is the strongest statistical association I’ve seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don’t get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95 https://twitter.com/Jonn__Mc/status/1244957684820070402   Permalink 5:05 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Make your own mask, but be careful. It is more effective than nothing, but not as much as an N95. Never leave home without it. PS: the @WHO is a fraud. https://nyti.ms/3bBlyw4   Permalink 4:54 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan https://youtu.be/Tb2pXXUSzmI   via @YouTube Permalink 4:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein What is with you? Why don’t you say it: it’s a prisoner’s dilemma because you and the rest of our leadership failed. Your failure means that we the public should take care of our medical heroes by not buying scarce masks while you do whatever it is you do all day with WHO & CDC. https://twitter.com/surgeon_general/status/1244744427735781377   Permalink 1:25 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@iulian_v7 Attended full RWRI twice. It paid off on multiple levels. Here’s one: my portfolio performance during this crisis vs. S&P500. So, RWRI & @nntaleb books are a great investment. Will go there for the 3rd time for sure, and 4th, 5th… pic.twitter.com/bTSvNQm56M Permalink 5:54 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The @WHO shd be renamed WDO (World Disease Organization): had they not existed many lives would have been spared. Friends are smelling conspiracy in WHO’s claims (“evidence based”conflation of absence of evidence for evidence). No, it’s only incompetence. Criminal incompetence. Permalink 5:31 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Everybody comments on my ideas, nobody seems to care that I’ve lost weight (in spite of quarantine)! https://twitter.com/chasechandler/status/1244661425148133380   Permalink 3:51 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @BloombergTV @ErikSchatzker #tailrisk #insurance #keepyourhouse https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/taleb-says-it-s-too-late-for-tail-risk-hedging-slams-stimulus   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DKfmtN7uYZ”>  pic.twitter.com/DKfmtN7uYZ Permalink 2:53 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is spin: WHO is a very incompetent org. Prevented masks & were 5 steps behind. Can’t get risk asymmetry! Stat ignorant WHO now trying to do complicated “science” & degrading simple chloroquine in spite of of huge signal, using “dble blind” buzzwords. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR31YwxhsKm4zHtCC6RazpsqCVrAMO_mY3UUre_iyd7hiuF0_YklhwvH1NE#   Permalink 12:08 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The PDF version is free and available here. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 10:27 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The book is finally on Amazon. Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemolog… https://www.amazon.com/dp/1544508050/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_3PIGEb0XVZ6ZE   via @amazon Permalink 10:21 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@Stephen89756302 @nntaleb on a personal note, thanks: I was in Singapore when they had 14 cases, UK when they had 1, wore masks in public, didn’t check a bag, ate in hotel, self-isolation on return to US. Saw the power of your model, listened, took action for self and others. Bless you. Permalink 10:19 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein Can we get a list of the officials, leaders, institutions & spokespeople who are consciously lying about “masks not being effective in the general population” to hide their own failure to stock masks, and thus pushing our health care professionals in front of this viral train? Permalink 10:07 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA models Models count # people dead and # people infected. They miss a central point: 1)~10-20% of those who get it are spending time in HELL yet w/o qualifying for hospitalization as they don’t need a ventilator. 2) We don’t know the long term reduction in LE from sequels! Permalink 6:15 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNG VENTILATORS & INTERMITTENCE Where varying the intensity saves lives: my paper in mathematical medicine “Convex Responses in Medicine” showing the effects of intermittence were well documented w/ventilators (Jensen’s Inequ.). Also in #Antifragile. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZjjOB0F5vO”>  pic.twitter.com/ZjjOB0F5vO Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@TommyCaillat 6ème relecture de L’Incerto en cours. Ce confinement est une aubaine si on en prends l’avantage. Lisez. Faites de l’exercise. Prenez le soleil. Mangez correctement. Pas d’excuses. @nntaleb @Mangan150 pic.twitter.com/7XE3KBGgBC Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Factoid of the day: The Montgomerys have the (Phoenician) J2 haplogroup (J2a1-Y22056 (aka Z40262)). @felhagehistoire https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/montgomery/about/background   https://twitter.com/Normandy_Post/status/1244576461882822657   Permalink 5:34 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 This is what @nntaleb calls the Ludic Fallacy. These guys either did experiments in the class room or in their minds. What they are saying are FAR from the reality. At least from my experience in China, NOBODY had this false feeling of protection while wearing the masks. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/c0uQCdksPv Permalink 7:31 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@jeitoapp Who the fuck needs a scientific paper to know that wearing a mask is better than not wearing one during a global pandemic? Is the world dumber than what I thought? https://twitter.com/jcastros/status/1244350023690747908   Permalink 1:37 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Don Bosco Ioannis Damakenos (John of Damascus) Imam Ali Socrates Thomas Aquinas https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1244342447276281856   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@NonMeek When you’re right, you’re right. https://twitter.com/iridiumideas/status/1244322903685910529   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kb12JxR71b”>  pic.twitter.com/Kb12JxR71b Permalink 11:29 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t do interviews anymore (not my job). But newspapers narrate the twitter feed. Works. https://www.rt.com/uk/484430-taleb-let-branson-virgin-airline-go-bust/   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Mask tutorial courtesy of @who https://twitter.com/ghosh121/status/1244266295060647938   Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Just to piss off @WHO #NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/SZpAiyjX3y Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ask for 5, settle for 3 (but don’t tell anyone yet!) https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1244095809592926208   Permalink 6:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Mayor of Amioun: on the other side of the Med, very diplomatic. pic.twitter.com/AJ6M9rsq5E Permalink 6:42 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism! https://twitter.com/MarinaStavrou9/status/1244161012833583104   Permalink 6:32 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters Different countries are at different stages in the pandemic, and under different levels of stress currently. That allows a little bit of load sharing. Germany responded early, e.g. the labs prepared for mass testing in January when the virus was sequenced in China. Permalink 4:27 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In the absence of further information, there is no downside to such strategy. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1244118720932446211   Permalink 4:15 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@sarah_cone ⁦@nntaleb⁩ has been saying this for only a few decades at least. https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/27/economic-efficiency-resilience-coronavirus/?outputType=amp   Permalink 2:23 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@MarinaStavrou9 I need to watch this again.. I need Italian Mayors to sort you ALL out the world needs Italian Mayors to sort the world out not passionless journos & clueless academics.. pic.twitter.com/yk7MES3KLG Permalink 12:14 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@Gh0xuLZHXdi3LEf Μένουμε σπίτι. pic.twitter.com/Wdeeh7478e Permalink 6:57 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@naval WHO isn’t going to warn you. CDC isn’t going to test you. FDA isn’t going to cure you. FEMA isn’t going to feed you. Save yourself. Permalink 2:54 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Nicholas Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/kein-schwarzer-schwan-nassim-taleb-ueber-die-corona-pandemie-ld.1548877?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=Twitter   via @NZZ Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@amconmag Comparative advantage, the philosophical basis of free trade, works, if by “works” you mean “maximizes efficiency at the expense of redundancy and anti-fragility.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-didnt-we-test-our-trades-antifragility-before-covid-19/   Permalink 9:45 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With Branson the problem is compounded: + He is a tax refugee: he lives in the BVI & since UK has no worldwide taxation, pays no taxes. Yets wants the UK taxpayer’s backstop. + He walks around virtue-faking with TED/Davos crowd. Let him go bust. Planes will fly w/new owners! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1243657604234166275   Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism doesn’t mean total anarchy for communes to do what they want. It is fractal (multiscale), but w/maximal control at the bottom. Localism allows central government to impose interzones lockdowns, but towns can shut themselves if they wish (Italian cities during plague). https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1243896621265498114   Permalink 7:24 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The worst in the hall of shame is @CassSunstein who represents all that’s evil in the IYIs: he pathologizes cautious people by finding some… disorder He wanted the Obama admin to manipulate pple away from their caution against GMOs by hiding labels. https://twitter.com/AriSchulman/status/1243502730200653826?s=20   Permalink 7:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@Nlitsardopoulos The point of NNT is that of scale and acceleration. E.g the time it took a boat to get from Crimea to Genoa in 14th century, compared to the time it took an airplane to get from London to New York. Permalink 6:39 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ordered masks on Amazon 2 weeks ago. The seller decided to not charge me. Will send money to rescue efforts as it is unfair for me to benefit from my media presence, particularly that it relates to the corona hedging. pic.twitter.com/TYmWOR8XGs Permalink 4:07 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is largely for the sake of these airlines that governments did not stop traffic from China. Now taxpayers need to bail them out, spending trillions. Penny wise, Trillions of dollars foolish. pic.twitter.com/3xj5mrlDgc Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I immediately smelled a rat with 10 Downing when I was told their chief advisor was using, liking, or doing something with @PTetlock’s “Superforecasters”. I realized he must be a BS vendor/IYI. Turned out he was. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 12:39 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “Life is long gamma”, RIP Anthony Glickman https://twitter.com/DaliaGlickman/status/1243596854799077381   Permalink 10:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is common for people like Fauci to know their stuff, but to not understand risk of events. Same with epidemiologists as we saw. The carpenter fallacy: to get an ideas about probabilities of tail sequences at roulette, hire a probabilist not a carpenter. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/CathyYoung63/status/1243471230809800706   Permalink 10:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Meds & Anatolians refer to themselves via patronymic up to one generation (ides,akis,ian,ben,etc.), like N. Europeans (sson), but some strange villages go matronymic: Jean de Florette (Provence)… Or Kousba, Lebanon: my name there is “Nassim Minerva”, driver:”Michel Rosa”, etc. Permalink 10:13 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@jamesaknight Fair play to them – Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and Chris Whitty have clearly read this tweet and delivered… #skininthegame https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238455607717486592   Permalink 9:33 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@churchesuncut Corporations have figured out that politicians are cheaper to buy than insurance #nnt Permalink 9:30 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/2QFx3uiL94   Permalink 9:21 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb An interesting regularity. Greeks refer to name and place of origin, even in Levant (Athenadoros of Berytus, Lukianos of Emesa,… , Shmokron of Alexandria) S Semitic speakers refer to their ancestors: Jehoshua bn X bn X bn X bn David… As in the Bible you get long genealogy! https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1243558074356563975   Permalink 8:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@RepThomasMassie (10/11) This stimulus should go straight to the people rather than being funneled through banks and corporations like this bill is doing. Permalink 8:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 13: How many generations of your family can you count back? This #Safaitic inscription contains a genealogy of 20 generations. Assuming a generation = 20 years, this author knew the names of his ancestors going back 400 years! A thread on his lineage. pic.twitter.com/sCsEgWI4OR Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@normonics Libertarians dont get liberty It’s not about doing whatever the f you want despite how it impacts others It’s doing whatever the f you want CONDITIONAL on not harming others https://twitter.com/FreeStateNH/status/1243386499657154560   Permalink 8:10 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR Blocking idiots on Twitter after telling them “I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots, nothing personal” is not a violation of Twitter’s terms of service (& the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany). pic.twitter.com/kXRnwFkrES Permalink 6:27 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Before weightlifting, or course. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1243265676158160896   Permalink 5:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few people know that Boris Johnson is Turkish on his paternal side: his grandfather Osman Kemal became “Wilfred Johnson”. Hence most likely the East Med J2 haplogroup… https://twitter.com/EastMedMonitor/status/1243521365958934530   Permalink 5:56 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It was NOT a 30 sigma. Anyone using sigma in economics is a fraud. pic.twitter.com/P4eKmf1dsX Permalink 5:50 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, if after that jobless claims number anyone still uses macroeconomic tools w/”variance” “standard deviation”, “kurtosis” etc. should be arrested. I said in The Black Swan & next textbook (Chap 3) that economists are frauds. This is the PROOF before the last move. pic.twitter.com/Q3o6SwPbk9 Permalink 5:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect (both from me and from our common friend in the South East) https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1243241516740407296   Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Fat Tony don’t believe much in conspiracy theories. Why? The “geniuses” at the top have proven time and time again they’re too stupid to pull anyting that elaborate off… https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@AviSolomon8 @chrislhayes @bruces The Greeks have not forgotten the lessons of history… pic.twitter.com/FjKqUtSQa7 Permalink 3:07 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@MasaSkiba “You cannot hedge the risk of epidemics, unless you stop airplanes from flying.” @nntaleb May 19, 2010. pic.twitter.com/LRq1UTCA8k Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friendship and enmity are both path dependent. Former friends (rats) are permanent enemies & former enemies are permanent friends. “I treat my friends as temporary pre-enemies, my enemies as temporary pre-friends, & my post-friends as permanent enemies.” Bed of Procrustes Permalink 12:04 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@PZalloua We need to know how the virus is spreading in the community and who is more likely to spread it? The more we know the better we can prevent @yaneerbaryam @nntaleb @normonics pic.twitter.com/Sm35nQxk1x Permalink 8:32 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Gods watch over our BSBPB (BS Busting Probabilist Brigade, includes the anti-naive-probabilism school of @HarryDCrane, the ergodic one of @ole_b_peters, and many more): Flawed paper by nudge IYI @CassSunstein had 107 dowloads in 6 months (Compared to 10K-100K for us). pic.twitter.com/ee4obXhV1f Permalink 7:01 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/2QFx3uiL94   Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Friends, my twitter feed has become a Real World Twitter Institute (nod to Nassim). Decided to chronicle this entrepreneurial journey in crisis distribution filling a supply gap. Yes, we make money but challenges pop up daily. Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I just published Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/3h53P88H94   Permalink 5:16 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@normonics pic.twitter.com/Wgi8nG23A3 Permalink 5:13 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Forbes’ @tarahaelle wrote “showed no significant difference in outcomes between those who received the drug & those who received usual care.” In other words: “showed no significant difference in outcomes FOR THOSE WHO DID NOT NEED IT” since those they are discussing were CURED Permalink 4:59 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Let me explain why Forbes’s @tarahaelle & Bloomberg’s @Business are making a statistical fraud concerning chloroquine: + You NEVER look for people who healed on their own on BOTH sides: 14 pple who recovered w/& 14 pple w/o Cloroquine tell you NOTHING about the drug. Fraudsters https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242788451986128899   Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@IvanBlecic @nntaleb, @yaneerbaryam & the gang won this debate. There’s an expression in Italian: “la merda viene a galla”. Fascinating the sheer SPEED w/ which BS has been detected in the last 2 months. Wld’ve taken years (if ever), dismantled one after another, in nifty 3-days instalments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242794290746703874   Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is Fake News, Statistically. Forbes should remove https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/03/25/chloroquine-use-for-covid-19-shows-no-benefit-in-first-small-but-limited-controlled-trial/#323249324c86   Permalink 1:12 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates. https://twitter.com/predragbrajovic/status/1242860576742821889   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates. https://twitter.com/PredragBrajovic/status/1242860576742821889   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@phl43 pic.twitter.com/d2Ihcvc2Pt Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY & ASYMMETRY Let me make my point clear. Does Chloroquine work? I am not sure. But…if infected & very sick, would I take Chloroquine? 100% Yes. In the right dosage: it has been around for decades & we know its side effect & drug interactions. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242788451986128899   Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel If I had to read just two paragraphs of @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb’s op-ed in the UK, this would be it. But you have an extra two minutes, so you should read the whole thing: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jUlsZjjV0O”>  pic.twitter.com/jUlsZjjV0O Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@drjamesdinic 500 patients in northern Italy are starting to breathe thanks to hacked scuba gear, modified with 3D printers. #COVIDー19 solutions! https://www.google.com/amp/s/dgiluz.wordpress.com/2020/03/23/its-working/amp/   @joerogan Permalink 8:02 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine wants to lecture live on social media while writing equations on a classroom blackboard. Any tripod with remote ctrl (for Iphone 11) that you recommend? Permalink 8:01 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-17   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-17   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TaroniAndrea When all this is over, @nntaleb will still be an asshole. But he will also still have been right. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242794290746703874   Permalink 6:33 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) In other words: Compare # of people who don’t recover but received Chloroquine to # people who don’t recover and receive nothing. Bloomberg should not be spreading this dangerous BS! Permalink 5:46 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t | Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statistical flaw in the conclusion: That study says almost NOTHING about Chloroquine. The comparison now is conditioned on BOTH being cured. You need cases without spontaneous recovery, such as Reault’s. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study   via @business Permalink 5:20 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Do you realize how f*cked up this system is to have someone like me up-fronting millions of dollars to bring masks into the US. 3 weeks ago, I did not know an N95 mask from a dust mask. Not a saint, please. We will make money, but the system is dysfunctional. Permalink 4:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statesman. https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242479407031296000   Permalink 12:56 PM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With @DrCirillo. Forgot to thank @BertZwart1 Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases: Clearly a steep power law. You need vigilance. Complicated epidemiological models are like studies of forks and knives on the Titanic. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   via @academia Permalink 10:08 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1242469195410894849   Permalink 9:59 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beats the NY library… pic.twitter.com/MEgjh3uCbs Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 A beautiful application of the shadow mean method on pandemics ( It allows you to derive the expected value when the fat tailed distribution is bounded, in this case, by human population on earth ). I was impressed by this method when @nntaleb and @DrCirillo discussed it at #rwri https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242443727366479874   Permalink 8:27 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And trading, of course. Permalink 8:11 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Math, Twitter, and weightlifting. Same time. Thanks, @GrantSSC for help. pic.twitter.com/DdBk31H6yo Permalink 7:52 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Our fat tails paper shd limit these models for entertainment only pic.twitter.com/ZVIZYPkmPy Permalink 7:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is a preview of the paper with @DrCirillo: contagious pandemics are fat tailed. Anyone using epidemiological model is like someone counting spoons on the Titanic. pic.twitter.com/HvJfJWL6zJ Permalink 6:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb makeshift… Was not a pun but a genuine typo. Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grant @GrantSSC is starting to make lemon out of lemonade, like @Jaffer22915438: delivering makeshit weightlifting equipment to people stuck at home. https://twitter.com/bmiloy/status/1242250956705681408   Permalink 6:01 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson from a long experience with model blowups:@neil_ferguson, if you need a model w/”thousands of lines”, this is not a model useable for real world risk & decisions–rather something with the FRAGILITY of a house built with matches to impress some tenure committee. https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713   Permalink 4:43 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb localism at its best https://twitter.com/AndrewCesare/status/1242174265547468803   Permalink 2:04 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Do you know how to sew? Make masks for hospitals, nursing homes, rehab facilities, or yourself. Here is information how. Spread the word https://necsi.edu/sewing-masks   Permalink 9:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANCIENT LANGUAGES DU JOUR Karshum(Kirsh), pum (temm/famm), 3inum, appum(aff, anf), uznum (udn, dayné) are preserved. Interesting: birkum BRK=> RKB (rekbé), tikkum maybe ta2m (to cover neck?) and most interesting: puridum => fard (single) https://twitter.com/mynemosyne54/status/1242061284704690177   Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One small problem. It is currently in the nation state of Turkey. https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1242010478693490688   Permalink 8:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t lift. I just hoard plates as a hobby. https://twitter.com/hoody_pl/status/1242100556883165186?s=20   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bought more plates, just in case. pic.twitter.com/LLuiUuzNX1 Permalink 7:33 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now this correlation is a correlation. Remove points and it stays the same. It may tell us however, that richer countries tend to test more, or that people travel much more into and out of richer countries. Check a network graph. https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1241850312203415552   Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@mynemosyne54 Body parts in Akkadian pic.twitter.com/9OxNApddOk Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@cdipaola62 WHO finally has “data” Universal Precautions for Respiratory/Droplet borne viruses has been warranted since outbreak When uncertain—>act with Precaution ⁦@endCOVID ⁦@nntaleb⁩ ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ ⁦@normonics⁩ ⁦@TuckerCarlson⁩ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html   Permalink 1:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Too late, De Blasio. You need to be one step ahead, not three steps behind. https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/1241885799525875712   Permalink 5:59 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 We need to “overreact” to fight the virus, this doesn’t look like that @trishankkarthik @normonics @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1241860593751113732   Permalink 5:33 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@LorenzoWVilla Do you want to try this one? For (a,b,c) real and positive pic.twitter.com/1nUUz3jvu2 Permalink 2:37 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something standard Libertarians don’t get (but localists get very well): liberty & threats to others don’t scale the way they think they do. Libertarians need to translate threats to individuals into threats to the collective without naive linear scaling. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239243622916259841   Permalink 2:36 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb To relax during the quarantine https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1241300006939713537   Permalink 11:06 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/YWc5xAt7rc Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/YWc5xAt7rc Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | Evidence-based science | inspired by @nntaleb Support my work https://gumroad.com/offshorecomic   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240641133820207104   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240714702281306117   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JggQip7c4x”>  pic.twitter.com/JggQip7c4x Permalink 9:56 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Commentary: “Few solid” I meant “a few solid” (i.e. sufficient to show Harry doesn’t just publish to gain status). Soon we will see the end of pseudo-credentalization/academic poseur. Permalink 9:01 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb THE END OF CITATION RINGS Harry Crane, probabilist (mathematical stat),knows his shit. Few solid publications, 350 citations. David Spiegelhalter,”statistician” 100s of pubs, Member of prestigious societies, 111,000 citations. Watch Harry take Spiegelhalter to the cleaners. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1241748419879763968   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5p2qyRTnRD”>  pic.twitter.com/5p2qyRTnRD Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. pic.twitter.com/lH9N1dur58 Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. pic.twitter.com/lH9N1dur58 Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This result is very robust. Paper posted soon. As probabilist @BertZwart1 (specialist in Extreme Value Theory) observes, this is the result of parameter stochasticity in the SIR model. Making parameters deterministic is what was incompetent in the UK government model. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1241451807907491845   Permalink 7:47 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I was actually teasing them. A more “elegant” tweet would have been: “It says a lot about them, but also something about you”. Permalink 6:49 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) The shareholder should not never end up being rewarded for lack of hedging/insurance. He/she should go first. https://twitter.com/nikola_sock/status/1241704778671013888?s=20   Permalink 5:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb When your archenemies give you praise, it says something about them, but also a lot about you. https://twitter.com/hlithskjolf/status/1241672103931326464   Permalink 5:43 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I’ve learned from a long life that someone close to you with a gun can be controlled if you are trained; worry about someone with a knife. https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1241550485762592769   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) Airlines/Boeing are lobbying for bailouts, which they will get. How about the small corner restaurant? The independent tour guide? The personal trainer? The prostitute? The barber? The hotdog vendor living from tourists near the Met Museum? Last time (2008) they were ignored. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA: pic.twitter.com/2WPkzAcjxA Permalink 5:21 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explain to me why we should spent taxpayer money to bailout companies (airlines) who spent their cash buying their own stock so the CEO gets optionality, instead of having a crisis buffer. We should bail out individuals based on needs, not corporations. #Moralhazard Permalink 6:21 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Many people stock up on pasta. Others on toilet papers. Some go for wine. And some people stock up on Olympic weight plates. pic.twitter.com/bJq3KsQmch Permalink 5:33 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thankful to @SamHarrisOrg. The problemo is too big to worry about personal enmities. https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg/status/1239267580755365888   Permalink 5:26 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ In other words, these people MUST have something in common that makes them susceptible to the virus: 4 is too yuuuge to be dismissed as a coincidence. (Conditional probabilities are low for healthy and young, so a few draws are <10^-4). Hidden comorbidity is too explanatory. Permalink 12:55 PM – 21 Mar 2020

The UK’s Coronavirus Policy / Corporate Socialism

The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t  (The Guardian)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam
Wed 25 Mar 2020

Our research did not use any complicated model with a vast number of variables, no more than someone watching an avalanche heading in their direction calls for complicated statistical models to see if they need to get out of the way.

Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You (Medium)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb with Mark Spitznagel
Mar 25, 2020

Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their own stock (so the CEO gets optionality), instead of building a rainy day buffer? Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favoring the fool and the rent-seeker.

 

#Moralhazard, @SamHarrisOrg, @PTetlock, Ioannidis, India, UBI, @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein, LUNACY IN THE UK,

Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens–Coronavirus: A Note (pdf)
T H E  T E C H N I C A L  I N C E R T O  C O L L E C T I O N (460 pg pdf)
Ethics of Precaution: Individual and Systemic Risk (Sign up to download pdf)
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…”(Sign up to download pdf)

@nntaleb We need a hall of shame in this thread. These people got us here owing to the lack of preparation. Murderous idiots! https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1241355290852786181   Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine extends great thanks to ⁦@GrantSSC⁩ and other twitterlifters for helping with this. pic.twitter.com/1OUiy8l51a Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Jaffer of course. Make lemons https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1240735924029403136   Permalink 9:01 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@HarryDCrane Cost how many lives? https://twitter.com/subhash_kak/status/1241199430151389184   Permalink 8:17 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel By the end of Mar, entire country will be on lockdown. Hope it doesn’t take that long If we had listened to @yaneerbaryam, @normonics, and @nntaleb when they issued their warning (Jan 26th, I believe), this wouldn’t be necessary. IF we have guts to do it, recovery starts May 1 pic.twitter.com/eMD0hjZX2L Permalink 7:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There is a suspicion that STAT NEWS which published the Ioannidis article is an Industry shill. It published Henry I. Miller AFTER he was caught working for Monsanto for which he was fired from Stanford and his columns were removed from Forbes. https://usrtk.org/our-investigations/open-letter-to-stat-its-time-for-strong-clear-coi-disclosure-policies/   Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Some days I have hordes after me. Some large event happens, and I can do no wrong. Then a quiet period… https://twitter.com/YourCareerflex/status/1241157783954829315   Permalink 5:29 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Third conversation with @nntaleb about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is systemic risk / what not to do when a truck is headed your way https://youtu.be/FUgHKX0clhU   Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb typo: “instead of” contating you. Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Spyros is both an admirable man & a genuine scholar. — When you disagree with @spyrosmakrid, as a friend, you solve it w/Ouzo personally, never in public. Unlike Phil the rat @PTetlock who mocks you on the web before contacting you. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1241071337986277376   Permalink 11:42 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@spyrosmakrid Nobody can doubt that the world will now spend tens of trillions to fight the coronavirus while spending would have been minimal in Jan, not to mention all the lives that would have been saved and the trillions of stock market losses avoided. I must admit I was wrong. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1241020475930705920   Permalink 11:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine in Atlanta is looking for a barbell to buy for immediate delivery. Permalink 10:36 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Central aspect of the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE at the systemic level: it applies to a very narrow set of conditions, centrally: FAT TAILS from multiplicative effects, w/o circuit breakers. The problem w dangerous BS vendors like @SaPinker/@PTetlock is their half training. 1 /n Permalink 10:28 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My paper on tail option pricing (revealing the equations at UNIVERSA) is under revision by a journal. What happened is not an “outlier” But anyone who after today still says “tail options are expensive” deserves to be put in a sanatorium. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1159545366330642434   Permalink 9:19 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Ioannidis problem: these pseudoempirical idiots don’t get that INSURANCE is cheaper than catastrophe, which is why under convexity you act early, quickly, and … CHEAPLY. We now spent 2 Trillion when it could have been minimal on Jan 26. https://twitter.com/BenMcCrea24/status/1241018591060856834?s=20   Permalink 8:15 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jeremias_bosch Right, now this is it. I hated you for so long and now I come back to you @nntaleb like a child that has filled all the oil lamps in the house with water and lived in darkness, out of his own stupidity. Keep on giving them what they deserve. Never stop, never! Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why my forthcoming textbook has a defect in reasoning named after him: the “Pinker problem”, or pseudo-empiricism with systemic variables or fat-tailed domains. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1241003952935768064   Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CONVEXITY OF ECONOMIC EFFECTS FROM PANDEMICS Why the economic costs from pandemics can still grow exponentially even when infection rates slow down. We live in an overoptimized world. pic.twitter.com/L7d8jTQRvO Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK government is borderline psychopathic. Or maybe not borderline. (If true.) https://twitter.com/DRileyamusing/status/1240923403919515648   Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jsferjou Bravo @philippejuvin Les médecins «officiels» qui ont décidé il y a qques semaines q les tests (54€ pièce) étaient inutiles ne veulent ni se déjuger ni «engraisser les labos» (témoignage recueilli sous couvert d’anonymat) Contrairement aux masques il n’y a pourtant pas pénurie https://twitter.com/jwaintraub/status/1240717907182616577   Permalink 3:18 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The intuition of what @wtgowers likes about Yaneer’s article is that you’d rather see islands of concentrated infections (pink) & safer areas than evenly distributed. Simply islands have lower concentration than continents/circuit breakers. @dzviovich can you show the automata? https://twitter.com/wtgowers/status/1240688178454867968   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/k8XnrfZc7b”>  pic.twitter.com/k8XnrfZc7b Permalink 1:07 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking idiot my whole point is the asymmetry: how to behave with things we can’t predict. Permalink 12:11 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My own review is “Ioannidis mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence /recommends to buy insurance AFTER the harm when we now have evidence”. Risk requires asymmetric evidence. Harry Crane has a longer review https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-10   Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@JackDav88 I cannot speak for Taleb, but his basic point was the Ioannidis is treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. That’s enough to bring the entire argument down. If you are still arguing for only “data-driven” approaches under uncertainty there is nothing else I can say. Permalink 11:53 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The problem with the Ioannidis article is that it is retweeted by every imbecile in sight as it gives cover to their beliefs. https://twitter.com/Thomas1774Paine/status/1240646790279499778   Permalink 11:51 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Another friend lost his job in the service industry. He immediately found the substitute (what gains from quarantine) & is thriving. He asked to not release the exact industry (for now) so local people don’t take the biz away from him. Permalink 11:33 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntalebbot “It is a very recent disease to mistake the unobserved for the nonexistent; but some are plagued with the worse disease of mistaking the unobserved for the unobservable.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@Firefly_fan @nntaleb commenting John “clueless” Ioannidis: https://twitter.com/OddLittleOrange/status/1239971216468762629   NAILS IT. Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The paper is here. It blew up on Academia https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-13   Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb MAKE LEMONADE OUT OF LEMONS! Yuuuge hero is @Jaffer22915438: given a shortage of hand sanitizers so he went looking for idle factories, found one, got the products & is now shipping 18,000 units/day. Think how instead of hunkering down you can get aggressive. #Antifragile 1/n https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1239643066333609984   Permalink 9:23 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam .@nntaleb and I discuss superspreaders, lockdowns and how to stop the outbreak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LX_bqMQfWlw&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 7:10 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ioannidis got the reasoning completely BACKWARD. I mean reallllllly backward. In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method. That’s the message of the INCERTO. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jO6uQWRJ7e”>  pic.twitter.com/jO6uQWRJ7e Permalink 10:29 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Irresponsible claim. Possible but v. v. highly uncertain. One needs to be blind to make such a strong claim while posting this graph. Just look at the points. https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1239646311328120833   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb A review of Ferguson et al., paper using the U.K. standard model for virus risks, w/@yaneerbaryam Paper underestimates the benefits of a LOCKDOWN. As we saw, SIR-type models fail to capture granularity and difference between individuals and AGGREGATES. https://www.academia.edu/42242357/Review_of_Ferguson_et_al_Impact_of_non-pharmaceutical_interventions…_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y0KglubInQ”>  pic.twitter.com/y0KglubInQ Permalink 8:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@joe_shipman MATH PUZZLE FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT @nntaleb He is too busy saving countries from listening to credentialed morons. You cut a circular disk of paper radially to make wedges to be taped into conical paper cups. To maximize total volume you do 2 cups; what should the angles be? Permalink 7:51 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Same with insurance models. Loss from hurricanes aren’t what you think are losses from hurricanes, even if your estimate of the intensity is correct. Why? Because the costs of the material goes up nonlinearly owing to (conditional) excess demand. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am the ONLY one who is impolite and crass. Others are polite and well behaved (except that Joe is learning to be rude) https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1239597221827485699   Permalink 5:34 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something UK modelers (idiots) did not get with hospitalization that we traders and modelers in nonlinearities have know since (1997): The market is a large movie theater with a small door. Same for hospital capacity. Gabish? Permalink 5:29 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Nerds: In 2008, The B of England was managing risk w the “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model” which assumed no banks, NO TAILS & no crises. They got insulted when I called it a fraud. Epidemiologists have similar flaws. No tails from model error. No perturbations. https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032   Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bravo. https://twitter.com/BillNeelyNBC/status/1239669547331878915   Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So we spend >700bn on imaginary risks from listening to IYI geopoliticians & journos when in fact the true enemy is a virus you pick up doing high five with the bartender. Time to fire the Foreign Affairs/Think Tank establishment, close political “science”depts & reset. Reset. Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I laughed so hard people I drank the wrong way & started coughing which scared everyone around me! The “BS Busting” operation seeking to eradicate statistical BS. pic.twitter.com/xnOUKZOdTk Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just a reminder that “Risk Parity” is a scam. Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The scoop: @realDonaldTrump’s staff relied on OUR memo from Jan 26 (@normonics & @yaneerbaryam), which gave solid grounds to ignore “academic” naive forecasting models estimating low impact from the China virus. #PrecautionaryPrinciple https://twitter.com/ProfMJCleveland/status/1239399258689806336   Permalink 9:14 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb That was 2010. https://twitter.com/elimane/status/1239553070310338563   Permalink 7:30 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The place where: Ramses II, Nebuchadnezzar, Esarhaddon, Caracalla, Napoleon III, etc. left commemorative Stellae. Preserve Nahrl Kalb! Help protect the site from real-estate fraudsters. https://twitter.com/byzance11/status/1238864209636659202   Permalink 6:44 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Long walks. 18000 steps yesterday https://twitter.com/ban_kanj/status/1239275546896470022   Permalink 1:40 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Marks my words: 1) @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein will go down as open dangers to society, 2) Thaler’s models have already been debunked so if he is ever remembered, he will be remembered for his fake research. https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/1239284574909165568   Permalink 1:28 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So the methodology (with heuristics we can even teach at #RWRI) is figuring out potential model impact from simple nonlinearity. Alas, many epi models turn into pure hogwash. Nice representation, but unreliable for decision making. pic.twitter.com/hJlgAMqWVI Permalink 1:22 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “You are free in inverse proportion to the number of people to whom you can’t say “fuck you”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:06 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why you are harming others by not “overreacting” https://www.academia.edu/42223846/Ethics_of_Precaution_Individual_and_Systemic_Risk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sojDM03Oia”>  pic.twitter.com/sojDM03Oia Permalink 10:34 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Us vs @sapinker and “evidence based” pseudo-empiricism. From a #RWRI attendant https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1239215510723706880   Permalink 8:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. A #RWRI Sunday strip with @nntaleb & @financequant & Raphael Douady. This strip is included in my newest mini-book Nr. 3 available here: https://gum.co/IJgDY   Previous buyers will get a free update per e-mail ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1ZYkbSkHUf”>  pic.twitter.com/1ZYkbSkHUf Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb *My profession=finding holes in models by IYIs I selected SIMPLEST SIR modelto check sensitivity to parametrization/convexity to error, common w/3 nonlinear ODEs. Every refinement to nonlinearM creates EXPLOSION of errors,curseofdimensionality (Yan & Chowellfor improvements) pic.twitter.com/NvDmy9Qy1k Permalink 8:18 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Here is my code, in case I made mistakes. It’s from the elementary SIR differential equations. pic.twitter.com/RUfrTNSSsz Permalink 7:02 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Policy is a speculative lunacy. Playing with the toy standard epidemiological SIR model. We have no idea how model parameters cause a yuuuge variation in ourcomes. We don’t even know the central parameters/whether stochastic. Try to add perturbations for “herd immunity”. pic.twitter.com/fTJ7pWRlaT Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@wael_atallah Thank God there is still some sense in the world! Chocolate Hummus not selling despite the panic. pic.twitter.com/2vQzOJXTVu Permalink 1:07 PM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Herd Immunity & ANTIFRAGILITY What drove me bananas is some imbecile who said “it was an antifragile strategy”. NOTHING can be antifragile unless you remove the left tail. I go bananas when people cite me backwards. Permalink 10:42 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Done! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238507124495396874   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NDZVDRggnC”>  pic.twitter.com/NDZVDRggnC Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #zerohedge #notasafehaven #riskyparity @RayDalio https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bridgewaters-macro-fund-crashes-20-amid-historic-turmoil   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/I5sDdlpZD5″>  pic.twitter.com/I5sDdlpZD5 Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Joe Norman, @yaneerbaryam & I did not “react” on Jan 26 with out paper. We had been preparing for the statement since the poor understanding of Ebola’s tail risk. This is from Nov 2018. pic.twitter.com/YnG903XBTV Permalink 10:08 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am a risk analyst & probability modeler. Not a virologist. I assumed reinfection possible because of lack of evidence. But if virologists (like this UK a @TheCrisk) state that reinfection is common for other Coronaviruses (this one has too short a life), then CASE CLOSED. pic.twitter.com/MW6kHPTc27 Permalink 9:56 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK’s “herd immunity” risk-blind strategy hinges on unempirical psycholophasters’ theory abt “crisis fatigue” & “nudging” BS. Assumes 1) no reinfection 2) hospitals will not be overwhelmed (w secondary deaths), 3) disease must return 4) no vaccine is coming Total IYI Lunacy. Permalink 9:33 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam How to stop an outbreak (and why China won’t have to reimpose restrictions) Squares represent individuals: grey susceptible; yellow latent; red infected and contagious; black deceased or recovered; and light blue are isolated. 1/2 https://necsi.edu/beyond-contact-tracing   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/H19cxDDhpn”>  pic.twitter.com/H19cxDDhpn Permalink 4:43 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There MUST be laws barring economists from doing regressions, just as there are laws preventing fortune tellers from giving medical advice. @DrCirillo https://twitter.com/kuhnmo/status/1238421190903042049   Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And obviously in Aramaic: Syriac and Mishnaic pic.twitter.com/M2itdDU7C2 Permalink 2:29 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Apparently there is ستر in Arabic could be cover but so uncommon that I wonder where it is used. Permalink 2:24 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (Proverbs 27.12) Note the Lebanese “setra” from נסתר (apparently not in Arabic); unless we find an Aramaic equivalen it would be Phoenician. Permalink 2:05 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb יב ערום ראה רעה נסתר פתאים עברו נענשו In Lebanese (literal): L 3aa2l lamma yshuf l khatar baddo l stra, L basit bkammel wbyékela In Lebanese (saying) Alf jabén w la alla yer7amo. #PrecautionaryPrinciple Permalink 1:53 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNACY IN THE UK Very clear on “herd immunity” assuming immunity is reached, no permanent damage, and NO VARIANCE for the parameters. https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us-133583utton   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nSnQ88cdTH”>  pic.twitter.com/nSnQ88cdTH Permalink 12:36 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Only way to counter the fools at 10 Downing is for team w/@yaneerbaryam & @normonics : 1-Pressure US gov to block travel from UK 2-Issue guidelines for UK citizens to protect themselves from both corona & the gov of Boris-the-dupe @BorisJohnson 3- Show errors in epi studies Permalink 9:48 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Full book is here https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1238489377006915589   Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The hardest thing to absorb for a “well educated” IYI is: absence of evidence ≢ evidence of absence https://twitter.com/shoughtonjr/status/1238468313249746945?s=20   Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb About everybody seems to be working under the hypothesis that those who recover from the virus are permanently in the SAME condition as those who never got it. Permalink 7:10 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SKIN IN THE GAME All those in the UK who are in favor of the “herd immunity” BS should self-infect with the virus. Includes ALL decision-makers, science advisors and “Boris no Precaution”. Now. #SkinintheGame is about filtering those with systemic danger out of the system. Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@neilchriss Of course I prefer 90% doors locked to no doors locked. I also prefer Russian roulette with one bullet vs two. Justifying a bad alternative by presenting worse ones is precisely why most people suck at risk. Permalink 6:07 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/MTayyabAhmed/status/1238438782032121858?s=20   Permalink 5:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If you don’t like my style, go follow the Washington Post. Never lecture someone on her or his style! pic.twitter.com/C7od3zVZH3 Permalink 5:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. Permalink 5:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238421868778004480   Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 41 langues. https://twitter.com/BellesLettresEd/status/1238434444459102208   Permalink 5:00 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@Premysl_The_Man Over 1000 volunteers for http://endcoronavirus.org   will fight this. Lower connectivity, now! @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) On Jan 26 when ~1000 infected people we issued our warning on how to handle the pandemic: take no chances, stay ahead of it. Precautionary measures based on symmetry of errors. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208?s=20   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) You don’t board a plane w/safety w/p-value of .05 (likely to be miscomputed). If they used their “scientific” approach to risk management no pilot would be alive today. Risk require much more reliability than “evidence based” methods which are backward-looking & flawed. Permalink 4:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK NUDGE UNIT 1) Just as before the crisis of 2008-9 I was shouting that economic “experts” were no experts, we will sorely discover that behavioral “experts” are even more unreliable. 2) Even psychs admit behavioral papers replicate <½, that is the reliability of astrology. Permalink 4:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb h/t @sothisispietro Permalink 6:49 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually, it is not obvious. Medication might be accelerating their problems. https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1238259635095834626   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/gwzRVXuHRg”>  pic.twitter.com/gwzRVXuHRg Permalink 6:18 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “Automation makes otherwise pleasant activities turn into “work”.” – Nassim Taleb #automation #robotics Permalink 5:41 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The thick paper pic.twitter.com/VLDtexYoFl Permalink 11:08 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friends, the PDF for the Technical Incerto (expected >2 volumes) will be free. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Two options: (Note Amazon may list with big discount) Permalink 10:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@GuruAnaerobic Mayoral hopeful @RoryStewartUK has been retweeting @nntaleb https://twitter.com/OliDugmore/status/1238092742770733056   Permalink 10:24 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@okeyego The point of panic is to prevent the virus from spreading in the first place, imbecile, not to help those already infected with surviving. Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@normonics Dear @GovChrisSununu Please see my letter below as well the note we wrote in January that drove the travel restrictions that have bought us time. I submitted this letter on your website as well so you have my contact info there. Please don’t hesitate. Best, Joe pic.twitter.com/YQsEC83kXt Permalink 8:52 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Remember that the US is not a Republic but (still) a Federation. The president can control foreign access, but not what happens in the States/communes. Some States such as NY are ahead of the game; they even ordered their own testing kits. Others so so. #Localism Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Psychologists themselves own that >55% of their results don’t replicate. I’ve shown that 100% of what they do in fat tailed domains is exactly backward. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb REMINDER: Psychologists as a collective are probability-ignorant BS vendors publishing unrigorous crap. Just a reminder. https://twitter.com/INSEAD/status/1238095034773393410   Permalink 6:48 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Donaldo: If you own the mahhket on the way up, you will also own it on the way down. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1050766705667047426   Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SOLUTION: market expects +/- 11.3% swing. This is a classic confusion because operators don’t understand what “volatility” means. Just as psychologists who deal with “correlation” and p-values don’t know what these metrics mean. pic.twitter.com/pLqoArwyh6 Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Correct the yuuge error. Hint: in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tail, but won’t tell you where. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   https://twitter.com/EddyElfenbein/status/1237037101184581636   Permalink 7:24 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Point is: all we need to do is slow down the growth, CUT THE TAIL–we can’t eliminate it. Unfair to favor the UK but simpler to execute. The virus is already here so the idea is to let it expire. Our proposal of Jan 26. infections were <1% of today’s https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8bJofwmMWr”>  pic.twitter.com/8bJofwmMWr Permalink 7:01 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Trump woke up. He understood that the solution is acting NOW in reducing connectivity. 30 days travel ban from Europe is perfect. Let the states ban public transportation/close all gatherings for 30 days. Permalink 6:20 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb What psychologists like this dangerous fellow @vaughanbell call “evidence” is something that fails 55-60% of the time, and has a p~ .05. With a p~.05 no pilot/flight attendant would be alive. Permalink 6:10 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Someone shd ban psychologists from talking probability. New book counters idiots ignorant of Risk & Extreme Value Theory who talk about “evidence”. Soon in hard copy. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   https://twitter.com/vaughanbell/status/1237791294954635267?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PFfiBnZG7c”>  pic.twitter.com/PFfiBnZG7c Permalink 5:49 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA TRICKS Friends pls add suggestions No fasting >20h No bread (can’t disinfect) unless you bake it yslf No sushi/raw meat No intense exercise. DL 80% max, at risk of detraining No public transp., no valet parking No Thaler/Nudge Unit No bars; if you must No nonalchlc bev Permalink 2:18 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ATTENTION Friends in the UK Beware the recommendations of the “Nudge Unit” and “evidence based” BS. They are more risk creators than mitigators. Learn from Korea, Singapore. In the US, Governor Cuomo is doing the right thing. This is the outline of my paper “nudge sinister”. pic.twitter.com/vtciWmMBaT Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The “nudge unit” & “evidence based” will wreck the U.K. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1237789942950105088?s=20   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Kluuuuuuelessly dangerous. The fellow @vaughanbell is a psychologist. Invokes “evidence based”: you need “evidence” of a crash before putting your seat belt on. The U.K. is doomed by government listening to “tenured” psychologists and nudge operators, like Thaler & other idiots. https://twitter.com/vaughanbell/status/1237743124107100163   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking IMBECILE, this was never presented as a “prediction” but as a warning about the fragility of SOME systems as they globalize. Permalink 1:22 PM – 10 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson: Those who panicked early don’t have to panic today. Permalink 11:01 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explaining “Black Swans” and their connection to Fat Tails in new technical book. pic.twitter.com/SuaW8JZjm7 Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Oh no! https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1237027356314869761   Permalink 8:16 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those who need help reading pic.twitter.com/Vx0H5d3ZeW Permalink 7:38 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@mikeharrisNY As this wise man @nntaleb has said #ES_F $SPX pic.twitter.com/PdIzYi7ngj Permalink 6:51 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@paulportesi You just haven’t seen the other side of the distribution. @nntaleb This quote has always stuck with me. Its elegance and power. I never forgot it. Well… We are seeing the other side of the distribution. Permalink 7:13 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb How to Panic If You Must: discussion with @yaneerbaryam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2Kga5HeAqk&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 5:17 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BTW, from The Black Swan, in 2007. pic.twitter.com/IdbFjunEg1 Permalink 1:21 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The great Cato-the-wise, Cato Sapiens, Cato Censorius, or (in Staten Island, Cato-no-nonsense) would be turning in his grave & characteristically seething with anger at the misuse of his name by that imbecilic institute. PS-As we explained,deaths *lag* infections because…time https://twitter.com/CatoInstitute/status/1236720095205957634   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@pierre_fraser Le #coronavirus et les erreurs journalistiques Dans un tweet dont seul @nntaleb a le secret, ce dernier à souligné que « L’Italie ne met pas à risque son économie pour combattre le virus, mais que […] » https://pierrefraser.com/2020/03/08/attention-aux-erreurs-journalistiques-versus-le-coronavirus/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OHEkPuzt86″>  pic.twitter.com/OHEkPuzt86 Permalink 12:02 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And of course the payment was not made. In spite of pressure by #RiadPonzi & the banksters. Good news. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1228712310404980736   Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@trishankkarthik More reasons not to venerate the cult of the youth: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1029699401260781568?s=21   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1029699401260781568   Permalink 9:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (No, nothing chemical. They are spraying Greek-Orthodox holy water.) Permalink 9:29 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The gym in Amioun (my ancestral village). Yet no virus in the area. Maybe the precautionary mindset in the genes (or, perhaps from the local olive oil). I guess I should go there. pic.twitter.com/R6m9ZuMEfa Permalink 9:20 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Solution. Joe Shipman tried (and failed) to ruin my weekend. (deleted previous owing to typos ) pic.twitter.com/Q3tFAeSjr5 Permalink 8:06 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Footnote: I framed the Tennis Problem as if it were the COVFEFE riddle. pic.twitter.com/YyY7lXVR01 Permalink 7:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beware Journalistic Fallacies Italy is NOT “risking” the economy to fight the virus. It is lowering the risk for the economy by fighting the virus. If the coronavirus proved something, it is that the half-learned (journalist, psychologist) is the greatest danger for mankind. pic.twitter.com/tIhXsIZRpb Permalink 7:15 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@Untiroalaire What pisses IYIs off is realizing how untaggable @nntaleb is, while their whole lives have revolved around labelling others. Aim for untaggability. Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@koushikp Unfortunately despite all your efforts, many haven’t understood the concept of limiting factor. The capacity of the healthcare system isn’t unlimited. So the mortality rate isn’t a linear number as being spewed out across many IYIs across the internet. Permalink 6:41 PM – 7 Mar 2020