Skip to content

Murray, Psychology, Quillette, Jesuits, Monsanto, Peterson, Harris, Silver, IQ Eugenics, Wahabis, Tulsi, Lehmann | Twitter

@nntaleb Nordic supremacy or North Atlantic supremacy (i.e. Northen Europe). Not Western. They don’t have monopoly of the “West”.   Permalink 3:21 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Note: I do not disrespect psychologists because I don’t know their works. It is precisely BECAUSE I read their crap. Between 2002 and 2005½ I read >200 psychology books and took notes. (Here 3 books by Pinker @sapinker who claims I didn’t read his junk) Permalink 3:18 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t that the Quillette pple are very, very incompetent. The problem is that the fans and followers are also very, very stupid.   Permalink 7:35 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many claims are so viciously false… Babylonians, Chinese, and Indians had explicit logical systems. Permalink 5:52 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb عيد مبارك Permalink 5:40 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I will definitely pay @joelwatsonfish to nitpick my manuscripts for mistakes (fellow has been trying to take revenge for Quillette). Payoff is yuuge if 1 in 10 of his mistakes turns out to actually be mistake.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Eid Mubarak to all. Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire. Constantinople continued the Roman empire. Same usurpation with the EU.   Permalink 2:12 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Whether the list was drawn by geography or ethnity, 15-18 mistakes. Murray is as ignorant in the humanities as he is in statistics. Permalink 2:04 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My father once told me: “Never antagonize Jesuits; their erudition is so wide and so deep they know things you’ll never suspect they know.” Permalink 11:42 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb More mistakes (total 18): Zeno of Elea was from Campania, S. of Naples. I am embarrassed I did not detect it at first reading. Permalink 11:30 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Further, a classical Greek would be furious to become part of this “West” to give a pedigree to Mountebank Murray’s ancestors & justify their “genetics” theories. Greeks were Meds, first and last and closer to Persia/Mesopotamia where the action was. Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Averroes, like Maimonides was born in Cordoba. Try to call him “Spanish”, Westerner! Some elementary mistakes anyone with intellect would detect: Philo Judaeus ‘The Jew” would be… Greek? Permalink 11:17 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I debated Murrat and noted that for a “historian” he was woefully lacking in erudition. His definition of the “West” = whatever became successful. He didn’t read r Greek & misunderstood Herodotus. Was told to take it easy on him bec. “libertarian”   Permalink 11:00 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mountebank race monger Charles Murray @charlesmurray has a list of “Human Accomplishments” by “Westerners” He has 15 mistakes on a single page! Tertullian was Berber Saadia was Bagdadi/Egyptian AlKindi was Arabian Poseidonius was Syrian Mani was Persian Porphyrius Phoenician Permalink 10:49 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I prefer the company of people who make me smile to those who make me laugh. Permalink 9:12 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK. Conspiracy perhaps. But never never underestimate incompetence. Permalink 7:14 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Never assume conspiracy when the vastly more obvious explanation should be incompetence.   Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The “Harvard Prof” has, statistically, < 25% chance of being right (less since Harvard profs higher % chronically wrong). A practice that survived millennia across populations that themselves survived has >.999 of being safe. Nature is robust statistically. #Lindy #Antifragile   Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@Monsantobuster Quillette promotes “IQ-denial=science denial”, “refusal of scientific racism=refusal of science”. Like Monsanto w/glyphosate=science Claire Lehman herself said her mission is to defend inherited genetic differences in intelligence all the while denying they are into RACISM. Permalink 3:23 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People loooooove the idea of BS busting. Until they find out that they are the ones being busted. Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie I’m super excited about the results in this paper – they solved a problem that drew me into finance in the late 1990s. Can’t wait to play around the results over the next few weeks.   Permalink 12:36 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Posted on ArXiv the paper on tail option pricing & shopping for a journal.   6th Journal pub in 2019! PS- Peer-review of technical work is often necessary but never sufficient (can be a cover for psych BS). It is not necessary if the proof is in the doc. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. ” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s campaign against U.S. Right to Know: key themes and documents via @USRightToKnow   Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@NonMeek “Monsanto paid Google to promote search results for “Monsanto Glyphosate Carey Gillam” that criticized her work.” This is disturbing. Permalink 5:51 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Revealed: how Monsanto’s ‘intelligence center’ targeted journalists and activists [SUCH AS YOURS TRULY]   Permalink 5:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@Yazanator Joe Norman is doing amazing work with Nassim Taleb exposing the racist @Quillette agenda of fraudulent IQ superiority in different races and eugenics. Give the guy a follow, he also talks a lot about Complexity Science which is interesting.   Permalink 4:23 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PDF is (and will remain) freely available, @xtsop.   Permalink 4:05 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I myself lie about my age. For 20 years I have been using 1924 as a birthdate with journalists, people who don’t know how to mind their own business, and on social media. I shd be a centenarian before finishing the 2nd Technical Volume.   Permalink 7:38 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Connecting the INCERTO to various research traditions Permalink 4:00 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What I found disgusting about Peterson is that he made yuuuge $$$ from charity from kids who made much much less than he did. Like TV evangelists of the old days. Then I blocked him. Is Claire “Lehman Brothers” still shouting that she is not into a neoNazi eugenics agenda?   Permalink 2:59 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@GuillPaquet You might be stacking sats but we at @BullBitcoin_ are stacking @nntaleb’s #Incerto Head of investments : @francispouliot_ Permalink 2:13 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I apologize. It was the Swiss. Permalink 10:58 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila, the Germans like combative rigor vs BS.   Permalink 9:42 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Don’t read; reread.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaign against yours truly (1500 letters to the university plus all manner of negative comments on social media).   Permalink 4:49 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@pauld198 that was a big mistake – you should have followed NNT’s advice ” don’t talk science with non-scientists” Permalink 10:41 PM – 6 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In my book Dynamic Hedging I show arbitrage bounds for correlations, a tutorial. We knew correlations were not transitive but the bounds were arbitrages. Permalink 11:17 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Terry Tao has a nice (but very technical write-up) on the transitivity of correlation.   Permalink 11:13 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ. Here is another statistical error by IQ-Eugenists. Show the magnitude of the error (bounds on correlation) Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb RWRI has evolved into a scalable BS busting operation. All you need to do in life and business is spot BS; the rest takes care of itself.   Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another example of why you cannot use statistical formulas without knowing probability. Majority of neuroscience papers miscalculate significance. Permalink 7:59 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s …   via @YouTube Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My IQ piece: “To do well in life one needs to think independently. And one has to be a lunatic (or a psychologist) to believe that a standardized test will reveal independent thinking.” Edgar Morin (born Nahum) is a smart fellow.   Permalink 6:18 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@DaveGulimlim “My idea of the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.” Permalink 11:58 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I’ve never had a problem with people who disagree with me, contradict me or find mistakes. I just cannnnnnnnnnnot take BS. Yuuuuge allergy to BS.   Permalink 3:44 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You know charlatan Sam Harris is lying because superstitious Eastern Mediterraneans never pass the salt (I am aggressively superstitious). Plus he offered to “bury the hatchet” and wrote this when I told him to f*** off. Permalink 8:01 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@sean_a_mcclure Permalink 7:35 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I need to buy mosquito repellent spray; but I am naturally a repellent to IYIs. They feel they are choking in my presence as I produced fumes only they can detect. 3 minutes and they are gone. Just consider the reaction of BSvendor Sam Harris Permalink 6:46 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@VergilDen If Taleb calls you out on Twitter, best to meet with him privately to understand his position, lest you create a record on Twitter of your ignorance. Taleb knows the position of his opponents better than his opponents. Permalink 6:34 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those in interested in my fight with Nate Silver, a sequel –except that it got more technical.   Permalink 3:57 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The story with Nate Silver has another episode. Aubrey Clayton wrote to the journal in defense of Silver claiming flaws with my election paper.   And I respond in the journal.   Permalink 2:16 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb We stopped responding when Lehman used the Blank Slate which is a straw man (almost noboby believes in the Blank Slate). Quillette’s followers might be as stupid as the editors (they are) & cheered; but it is the defense by Lehman that confirmed the sinister racial agenda! Permalink 1:40 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Geneticists (this smart fellow) seem on same side of the IQ debate. But they miss a potent functional argument x-not- f(x). IQ could be as heritable as height. But the function of IQ, f(x), performance, is 1 correlation^2 removed (& is small). Yuuge!   Permalink 1:29 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@financequant Trees protected against wind tend to fall over prematurely. Thus, trees gain from such disorder and stress. We need a good name for this. Anti-fragile, perhaps? @nntaleb   Permalink 11:12 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Hell is to care about it.   Permalink 10:06 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Correction: maximum .12 of the Variance according to THEIR OWN research (the heritability metric, Falconer’s “h-square” is hard to map to standard variance). For me, because of adjustments, still <.02 Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #goldfinger #universalexports #cliffhanger Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Today I received the royalty statement of “Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You” (it is a book about uncertainty and the role of luck) and remembered when Nassim visited us at INSEAD to help us promote the book. It is ten years since then and we all look so young. @nntaleb Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@normonics What this says is that on the most charitable read, the VAST MAJORITY of the phenomena in question are left unexplained, while the narratives being spun would have you believe we have a clear picture as to what is going on with “intelligence” and “heritability of intelligence”   Permalink 5:05 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The IQ Eugenics “debate” is over, using psych’s own results. Best correlation psychs report IQ-performance (milit)=.5 (explains 25% of variance w/o my own adjustments). Heritability of IQ scores, again 25% of var. So for THEM genetics explains .06 of variance in BEST. for me:<.02   Permalink 4:03 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Food debasement (identical to currencies) Non-artisanal corporations w/MBA managers start substituting products progressively that imperceptibly worsen the product, until blowup. You start w/lemonade, then sell what passes for lemonade. Same as bankers hiding risk for a bonus. Permalink 3:44 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@RaniaKhalek The hostility on display from the anchor in this interview shows that they hate Tulsi Gabbard no matter what she says, and they hate her for her foreign policy views that antagonize against war   Permalink 2:34 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I mean sunflower oil not corn oil in France Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that, except for sushi bars, one cannot eat out without inspecting the kitchen. Even “olive oil” is often debased, like a currency, with seed oil. We need a “seed oil detector” very badly. Permalink 2:02 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just came back from East Med where one can escape seed oil. Avoiding France: + France: heavily marketing corn oil as “healthy” solution. Now invading French cooking replacing butter/lard. Air France’s olive oil is 66% corn oil! + Belgium: Fries no longer w/tallow, but seed oil.   Permalink 1:52 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “If you want people to buy a book, tell them it is overrated”. Bed of Procrustes Permalink 5:11 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@john_santin Just reading the book now, so let’s see if I’ve got this right . . . Fragile = Complaining about enemies Robust = Not having enemies Antifragile = Having enemies that complain about you Did I get it? What am I missing if not? Permalink 5:01 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant The MSM is troubled. CNN averages an audience of ~700K. This number is beaten by a fair number #youtube accounts (I’m talking about those with serious content.) which are produced by tiny staffs. There are over 2M people paying to support content providers on Patreon. 1/2 Permalink 4:12 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant If the Democrats put up Tulsi Gabbard for president they would win the White House. I would certainly vote for her. Alas, they will put up someone like Warren or, much worse, Sanders and commit political suicide. Forcing me again to vote for some third party candidate again. Permalink 1:41 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We were all lied to. We were told that Saddam had WMD, was working w/ Al Qaeda & that this posed a threat to the American people. But not only have we not gone after Al Qaeda, they are stronger than they were on 9/11 #TULSI2020 #DemDebate   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:18 AM – 1 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words if as @stuartjrichie claims IQ tests correlate at .8, you have a quite large uncertainty about your own IQ hence you should propagate to the performance. The overall correlation is not unconditional. Permalink 9:32 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So psychologist @stuartjrichie writes a book on IQ. In it he reveals that your own IQ tests correlate at .8— every time you take the test. He didn’t realize the need to discount accordingly correlations IQ-performance by devastating amounts. Psychology is astrology. Permalink 8:57 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@RandPaul I’m headed to the floor soon to speak on this budget “deal.” You would think in an era of renewed trillion-dollar budgets, in an era of $22 trillion debts, you would think SOMEONE in this body or in this town would make a deal to CUT spending. Watch here:   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb One lesson to everyone about #Antifragile and not just to “racemonger Claire” @clairlemon: Never claim to be antifragile and play victim. Never. Gabish?   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@CliffordAsness I’m in the minority I think, but out of so much great work I think this is one of ⁦@nntaleb⁩’s most subtle and important. Perfectly describes the social media veto given to a tiny minority. And subtly one of biggest threats to liberty.   Permalink 5:27 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@hedging_reality Love the fact that @nntaleb clearly thinks for himself (understatement) and could not care any f*cking less wether one agrees with or approves of his positions, thoughts, or facts.   Permalink 9:57 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fucking moron it’s not a fight: it’s watching her do self-flagellation, which gets painful once it starts eliciting commiseration. Permalink 8:50 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction.” – Nassim Taleb #progress Permalink 7:58 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@AaronAllisonCPA Celebrating my birthday with a little present to myself… Incerto, deluxe edition. Beautiful. @nntaleb Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fundamental Risk Asymmetry: “No that’s too risky” & “I don’t know” are effectively the same statement. (see #Antifragile). Why? Because if I don’t know whether the plane/the food/the technology is safe or not, I don’t ride in it. Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb She is so clueless and stressed out you need to take it easy on her.   Permalink 9:30 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster People who still have doubt that @clairlemon is into what Feynman calls “cargo cult”, the name for “scientism”. Prof Taleb is right you need to go to school finish your degrees and study something.   Permalink 8:59 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #fightthefed #goldfinger Permalink 6:03 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No   Permalink 4:38 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Heraklius wasted energy on the Persians his victory was Pyrrhic. It weakened him.   Permalink 2:19 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At least two Roman emperors were either killed or captured by the Persians on that 700 year long Persian war. Who is the second?   Permalink 2:04 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At the request on Quillette followers I took an IQ test. Guess my score: Permalink 1:00 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Not counting Cyrus’ invasion of Babylon and the Levant: he defeated the Babylonians freed the Jews and brought them back home. Permalink 12:51 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The Iranian waged a 800 year war ag Romans. The Iranian frontier bankrupted Byzantium and led to the Arab invasion. Same with the Ottomans. Border stayed firm. The mistake everyone makes is to underestimate how stubborn Persia is   Permalink 12:22 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is turning out to be a farce. For @clairlemon correlation and estimation theory should be outside mathematics. Off to meet @spyrosmakrid in Athens to tawk about the M5 competition.   Permalink 9:42 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Turned out these ladies are in the business of ML for sending SP500 trading orders to a hedge fund either in Italy or in Texas.   Permalink 7:26 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster What Claire Lehman, dropout from a Masters in Forensic Psychology calls “garbled nonsense” of Prof. Taleb is called in some circles: MATHEMATICS.   Permalink 7:23 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Peterson a bon vivant? Part of the reason I blocked Peterson is because of his dullness.   Permalink 7:11 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I block/mute people when I have no more use for them, nothing to learn from their arguments: Jordan Peterson, Impostor Molyneux, Mountebank Charles Murray, RacePromoter @clairlemon Not Sailer, Cochran, etc. Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Actually worse than I claimed.   Permalink 10:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes the book I use for entropy   Permalink 9:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The owners of my favorite squid ink place, Kelly’s in Beirut, said they refuse to serve squid ink out of season. Other restaurants have it frozen from the winter. Permalink 9:14 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Meta-IQ test: you are given a sequence: 2, 4, 8, 16, … what is the next item? Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Taking 3 semesters off from teaching at NYU, officially to use freed time to “study Greek-Latin-Aramaic”. Will return in the Spring of 2021 with a course of informational entropy. Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@aldertrack In Greek κ will be pronounced like a G when it follows a ν, so Θα πάω στην Καλαμάτα is pronounced as Tha pao steen Galamata Permalink 7:13 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The discussion with Quillette and “Race Supremacy Claire” @clairlemon has ended with this.   Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@UntergrundmannG Taleb has an updated post up at medium that takes care of most of this. You could take the time to weigh that in against this all over again. And if you come back here in a few days, I may have a post up about how this is a trivial misunderstanding of NNT’s case. Quantitatively. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Was getting hate tweets from Quillette clients at a rate of 1 per min, many using racial epithets to claim that @clairlemon is not into neoNazi agenda. Slowed down to about 10/min. Next, w/@normonics, preparing a formal technical paper (complex systems) abt the IQ fraud. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correctio: predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli. Permalink 6:29 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Ol_Wall There’s a difference between something having a genetic component and proving / publishing based on it. Of course there’s a genetic component to behaviour!! That doesn’t mean we can reliably know what that is – or should publish those shaky claims. Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Extrrrrrremely impressed with the sophistication of these machine-learning researchers in the Sunni enclave of Tripoli, Lebanon. They know the problems with distance metrics inside out. They are working to produce entropy maps. Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@EbbcMunich Our session last Tuesday was a great workshop based on Antifragile by @nntaleb For more info see   Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So Quillette’s IQ “scientific” racism is more scientific than the Nazi’s racism/racial superiority theories?   Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Is @clairlemon still denying that her Quillete project is into a neo-Nazi “scientific” racism (“race realism”) agenda? Permalink 5:08 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@scmarco69 Cf cet article technique de Taleb:   qui démontre que toute utilisation du QI dans le monde réel est à peu près vouée à l’échec. Permalink 4:49 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Extrachelle Food of the Gods, literally.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Intelligence is WAY too important and essential for what it means to be human to cede to the low-dimensional Pinker-style quillette IQ pseudointellectuals Permalink 6:04 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@normonics Why is @nntaleb calling @Quillette promotion of race science via IQ a neo-nazi agenda? Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No.   Permalink 10:47 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb He is hired. His thread explains much of my position on IQ research. Add that 1) I don’t deny heritability of *something* in non-feedback linear environments, 2) Higher dimensions are not tractable (curse of dimensionality) & #Quilletteidiots don’t get it   Permalink 10:32 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@HenryJOncology #skininthegame @nntaleb tells a more important issue: no one except #patients benefit from using hard endpoints that result in trial failure. Everyone else benefits with a positive result in USA. Perverse incentives to create bad trials with weak endpoints. @VincentRK   Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@EricTopol He’s my new friend! Thanks @JpMikhaiel for your perceptive take, especially for bringing in @nntaleb’s important work. And kudos @kevinmd for hosting a site that gives medical students the chance to get their views out   Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DaveGulimlim Reading Antifragile by @nntaleb tonight. I’m about to reach halfway and the insights are staggering. This might be one of the most influential books for me this year. “I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.” href=””> 7:35 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I have always fought those who accuse others Nazism & eugenics. So far I’ve made one single accusation of neo-Nazi agenda: @clairlemon & the broad @Quillette crowd, for their closet promotion of pseudoscientific ideas about IQ, race, etc., under cover of defense of free-speech.   Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Perhaps before lecturing people about “understanding reality”, Ms. Lehmann should make some effort in getting schooling in elementary statistics.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@ReadTrying The problem with Taleb isnt that he’s an asshole. He is an asshole. The problem with Taleb is that he’s an asshole and he’s right. Permalink 6:09 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap I’ve been getting nonstop from Quilette followers. 5:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DA_Stockman Tulsi Gabbard’s Suit Against Google Is A Double Plus Good   Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Answer @SamuelGWalters. For all x>0. Now the left side? 3:57 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb How many fucking times do I have to repeat that I have public tutorial lectures on probability?   Permalink 3:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Math Problem du jour: Can you make the right side tighter?   Permalink 3:26 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I said Greek not just Orthodox because of a cluster of inherited Byzantine stuff: the architecture (the dome is Byzantine), the prayer (initial Greek prayer included prostration), etc. Permalink 2:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb To continue the thread. Lehman is a fraud, & not smart enough to be caught.   Permalink 2:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Nationalists, falsely accused of racism, hold “all children are equal but each under obligation to give preference to their own” @Quilette’s full neo-Nazi approach: “these people are genetically inferior; let us find the science ( and fake defense of free speech) to back it up” Permalink 1:56 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb A nonvote for the official democrat will effectively be a half-vote for Trump. Gabish? Permalink 1:28 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those who doubt the Greek Orthodox origin of the female veil (Iranian style)… Church in Amioun. 12:36 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb My speculation that there will be a growing closet Trump support in the far left is getting more and more confirmation.   Permalink 3:00 PM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes I know I am rude by calling IQ people imbeciles (which they are). But they are classifying entire populations as idiots. People who already have enough problems. I am going to upset the “Fake free-speech” @Quillette crowd & “Klueeeeless Claire” @clairlemon a bit more. Permalink 9:36 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb BTّW for those who want to see my thingy with IQ, here is the paper, heading towards the half a million readers.   Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Klueless Claire” Lehman, @clairlemon you are so kluuuuless abt Popper/falsification it’s not even funny. Statistical claims in psych are not testable in the Popperian sense, & if they are, can be easily falsified by showing the metric is uninformative.   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Also impossible to teach charlatans that “handwaving” means exactly what THEY do for a living. @clairlemon should stop Quillette, and take a study sabbatical (5-10 years) to do some elementary statistics, data science, etc., before uttering such verbiage.   Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Impossible to teach charlatans the very notion that SCIENCE=RIGOR, little else.   Permalink 4:44 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@oskarth Spotted in Taiwan in traditional Chinese! Works for asymmetrical one arm overhead presses too. 4:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Friends, any idea how to make @wolfram Mathematica data synchronous? One single missing date makes comparisons very hard. 4:14 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those into some math, here is why social scientists don’t seem to know what correlation means.   Permalink 3:53 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Finally submitted to journal my paper showing psychological research on forecasting is largely fiction. (Includes @Ptetlock’s superforekast not even mentioned in paper)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:46 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I am not discounting heredity. But the research extending it to such matters as “intelligence” is largely fraud.   Permalink 3:37 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Behavioral genetics is largely an intellectual fraud. Resisting promoting them, @clairlemon, even if you like their message.   Permalink 3:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@trishankkarthik First impressions on the @SS_strength seminar: There are a lot of similarities between @CoachRippetoe and @nntaleb: they both say what they like fearlessly, do not suffer BS gladly (can tell by passionate anger), and are funny as hell while delivering powerful truths Permalink 9:24 PM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Philological coincidences, 1 In French, crier is to shout, in English (primarily) to shed tears. In Lebanese, 3ayyet is to shout, in Egyptian 3ayyat is to shed tears. Permalink 3:50 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Lamma 7ada bi 2llak lbet beytak, bi2akkidlak inno hayda mush baytak. Permalink 3:40 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principal benefit of Mathematica, as @financequant figured out, is that everything is precisely defined. Mathematical papers often have shortcuts or fuzzy definitions (particularly when dealing with vectors and matrices); @Wolfram Mathematica has to be exact. Permalink 2:44 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We respond to Clayton’s comment on my paper in defense of “Klueless Nate” Silver. Permalink 1:23 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The problem is not babbling journalists. The problem is that the entire intelligentsia has been saying the same crap. Commentary on the events of the Trump presidency provide the best test of mental faculties.   Permalink 4:13 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb James @drjamesdinic is figuring out something central. What do ALL elements of this list have in common? These are ULTRA MODERN, not #Lindy. Worse than sugar: seed oils touted as “healthy”(olive/avoc./cocon. oils are not seed oils). And seed oils are everywhere in restaurants.   Permalink 3:59 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@CarstenBKK Here is @nntaleb et. al. take on climate change. I can’t phrase it any better:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principle of revelation of preferences (#skininthegame) is what people do, where people go, how they vote with their feet, not what’s published some paper with pictures.   Permalink 1:56 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@lhamtil Whenever people suggest my sector & industry analysis is tired, I refer them to this passage by @nntaleb Permalink 1:18 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Breaking: Tulsi sues Google for interference and manipulation!   Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard 2/3 – #Google controls 88% of internet search in the US — giving it control over our access to information. Google’s arbitrary suspension of the account of a presidential candidate should be of concern to all Americans.   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard TULSI2020: In the hours following the 1st debate, while millions of Americans searched for info about Tulsi, Google suspended her search ad account w/o explanation. It is vital to our democracy that big tech companies can’t affect the outcome of elections   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@paulportesi Thread by @nntaleb: “1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who hasr a living. 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school pr []”   Permalink 7:10 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Invent a probability distribution that’s neither thin nor fat tailed. [Jetlag in Northern Phoenicia] Permalink 4:07 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) I asked Ridley for tail risk analysis for GMO crops. He showed a few statistically lame papers showing “benefits”, and some scientism. And if there is no tail risk analysis it’s because GMO peddlers do not even know what tail risk means.   Permalink 3:11 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Drove to Ehden from the coast. Tallied the names of villages on the way. Not only there was NOT a single village with Arab name, but there were: +Balamand (Belmont, Crusader) +Rushdebbin (Roche des Pins, Crusader) +Kousba (my mother’s) (Cuspa, Roman) Stop the Arabist fraud. Permalink 2:57 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Boris Johnson’s position on GMOs/biotech which effectively centralize and delocalize crops (puts nature in the hands of technocorps) is opposite to his position on Brexit which effectively localist & against socioeconomic centralization (puts Britain in the hands of technocrats)! Permalink 2:50 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@davidsarac I am getting to appreciate how highly educated people are the most dangerous thing on the planet. In a same way how excess of order produces evil, too much exposure to academic environment produces retardation of mental faculties @normonics @nntaleb @GreenRupertRead   Permalink 12:12 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@Petepicasso10 Intellectuals yet idiots like @nntaleb would say.   Permalink 7:49 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ron Paul & @DanielLMcAdams are my filter in the middle of the noise.   Permalink 1:40 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correction: I meant I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than agree with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? Permalink 11:38 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is certain that Ms @RaniaKhalek has no notion of what a fallacy means. The problem isn’t convincing her & other intellectual rejects in her group, but making people with brains are aware of these fraudulent slogans thrown at them.   Permalink 9:34 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Started to ship   Permalink 6:57 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@ggreenwald It’s also bizarre to watch House Democrats constantly herald Mueller’s career as one of great “moral rectitude.” Does this little episode just not count at all? Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish?   Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mistakes: In Lebanese, l not el; 3arabiyyé not siyyara. But good effort. Permalink 2:03 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mathematica is addictive and makes math addictive.   Permalink 2:01 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman’s discussion with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about sexism, racism and retrospective bigoteering in the U.S. Declaration of Independence   Permalink 2:24 PM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We are clearly winning. The geopolitical state can no longer control the language. Bottom up wins in the age of social media.   Permalink 10:05 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If someone acts like a shill, odds are he/she is a shill. (Dan Gardner busted)   Permalink 4:40 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb CNN, the designation “congresswoman of color” is itself racist. Permalink 7:23 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) Never trust a journalist unless she’s your mother.   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) Thomas “the Chin” Friedman…   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Virtue is the difference between what you do in public and what you do in private. Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I finally got that Bolton doesn’t exist as an advisor; he is at best a negotiation tool. He is just someone who barks very loud and incoherently so Trump can make a deal, if possible.   Permalink 12:51 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Done with the paper on forecasting, debunking the BS by “Phil the rat” Tetlock @ptetlock. Addresses some problems with @robinhanson and his claims about prediction markets.   Permalink 12:18 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #goldfinger Permalink 7:24 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You don’t need mathematics to be rigorous; you can achieve formalism w/legal documents, where everything is precisely defined. Contracts & codes from Theodosius to Cambaceres→elimination of VERBALISM from documents. I learned that w/financial term sheets. Everything is mapped. Permalink 6:19 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Verbalism, a general definition. Does it supercede all other “fallacies” in critical thinking made in intellectual discourse? Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@jimmy_wales Is there a way to get back to the old twitter interface? Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “You may eventually forgive and befriend someone who harmed you, never someone who bored you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:11 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Pharma is better at invending diseases for its existing treatments, than treatments for existing diseases” Bed of Procrustes   Permalink 1:49 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event? Wittgenstein’s Ruler   Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You can only disagree with people who are wrong, not those who are “not even wrong”. When you engage a charlatan (as with @snowded for the above derivations) he represents your debunking his fallacies for a “disagreement”. Permalink 7:51 AM – 21 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:07 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Doesn’t look like your regular IT professional. At 73.   Permalink 5:21 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@financequant Sigh… If it NEVER works then why?   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This has been on for 5 years, @Adam_Bat   Permalink 11:22 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:10 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb God made mathematics so you can tell me where I am wrong; the fragility of a derivation is transparent for all to see. Formalism allows the slightest nonsense to show. Some econs/psychs produce obscure equations to hide nonsense. They get caught: you can debunk using math! Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, This is my precise definitions for Fragility, Robustness, & Antifragility. The paper is here. This will be part of the 2nd vol of the Technical Incerto (Includes #Lindy) called: “Fragility Risk and Convexity”. (link:  )   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:14 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Science is not about authority, consensus, and verbalisms, but proofs and derivations. Permalink 3:42 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Snowden, I said it before: you are a handwaving bullshitter. Show us some mathematical formalism if you can or shut the fuck up. Permalink 3:37 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I meant squatting closer to your max: when you are in the lower position. Permalink 2:07 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It’s there. Just a small suggestion: perhaps you should read the book before lecktschuring its author. Permalink 1:21 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) This is exactly why academic tests select for those nerdy enough be motivated during the test; no translation to mental powers in real life. 2) @CoachRippetoe reports the same “panic” while deadlifting close to your max: you need to stand up, failure is no option.   Permalink 12:02 PM – 19 Jul 2019

Pinker, Old Twitter, Epstein, @AlanDersh, LTCM, Option Pricing, GENETICS, Nudging, Eddie Hall, #Corporatism, IQ, Dawkins, #RWRI, Psychologists, Principia Politica, @TulsiGabbard | Twitter

@nntaleb Ms @Rania_Masri I wonder if they subjected you to some middle-school elementary reasoning test before you became “professor”? The Lebanese ministry is NOT preventing foreigners taking jobs that the Lebanese don’t wants to perform. @RaniaKhalek   Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there are 7 severe logical fallacies in your response (I mean severe, severe defects in reasoning). Can you find at least one? Give it a try.   Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4 Competition ended the long forecasting winter A description of the M4, its major findings/conclusions and detail Tables are available in   Preparations for the M5 that will use high frequency/hierarchical data have started, scientific advisor NN Taleb ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:54 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Oppa!   Permalink 5:57 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn I have disagreed @nntaleb in the past for being too harsh with Pinker, because it seemed to me that Pinker was wrong but not dishonest. I have now revised my opinion Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn An ethical person does not regret telling the truth in a court of law, even when a bad person benefits from it. This is so important that it’s one of the Ten Commandments Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn I read Pinker’s letter of defense (linked) and was disgusted. Not because he did a favor for a friend, and not because contributed to Epstein’s defense, but because he now regrets it   Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, please go to the UN in NY and shout blames at Iran, Russia, Belarus, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, China, Turkey, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, France, Panama, Romania, Thailand, CH, HK, Malaysia, Mexico, Colombia, Liberia, Ethiopia… for discrimination against foreigners. Permalink 4:55 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government.   Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government.   Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@QuintusCurtius The Roman dictator Sulla composed his own epitaph, which was: “No friend ever served me, and no enemy ever wronged me, whom I have not repaid in full.” There is a reason why he was called Sulla Felix, or Sulla the Happy. Permalink 10:21 PM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Twitter, @twitter, the new Twitter is horrible. Please give us back the old one. Permalink 4:17 PM – 18 Jul 2019

@mikeandallie (1/5 ish) I missed this tweet yesterday, but thankfully it showed up in my feed today thanks to a retweet from @financequant . The topic of the paper is the question a options trader friend asked me for help on 20+ years ago. It is amazingly cool to see the problem solved.   Permalink 10:28 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Intellectual fraud.   Permalink 9:56 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Good news about the American justice system. It corrects itself. Epstein gamed it before with his part time “prison” sentence, something the poor could not afford. He used detectives to (legally) expose the private lives of his witnesses. 000s of offenders cannot afford bail.   Permalink 9:05 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Improved (the LTCM blow up story) Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb BTW, this was explained 20 years ago in Fooled By Randomness but few got the exact point then. People are surprised to discover that the Incerto has a mathematical backbone. Permalink 6:59 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY OF PROBABILITY Asymmetry of inference: How to reject the Gaussian in favor of a power law. Easier than you think. From a Quiz posted here. Added to my new book   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@TheBillfish Mr. Taleb is 100% right. Execs at publicly traded companies are the equivalent of Communist Party Members, blindly and ruthlessly, doing what they are told to protect their station in life. So few add any value at all, and even fewer bring any innovation.   Permalink 5:16 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb روحي و روحك يا روحي روحين بروح ان راحت روحك يا روحي روحي بتروح Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 6:45 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Practically, any CEO who “rose through the ranks” is competent at being an actor. No exception. Entrepreneur or nothing.   Permalink 6:35 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Anyone who does not distinguish between wealth generation via risk taking and rent-seeking will be blocked here. CEOs are rent seekers –so are B-School types. Innovators and entrepreneurs are risk-takers. Small business owners are risk-takers. We need risk takers. #Skininthegame Permalink 6:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb And year after year the rich are different. #ergodocity   Permalink 5:12 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 3) Solution and methodology Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) SIMILAR PROBLEM: Someone tells you he saw a human 3 meter tall. What is the probability of the person being delusional (and no such thing as a 3m human) vs the probability of the person being sane and indeed there is a 3m human. Wittgenstein’s ruler, again, but in math form. Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You can inverse the prior to a breakeven point. Permalink 1:11 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Let’s revisit the QUIZ more formally (I am adding it to my next book).   Permalink 12:51 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I can curse on Twitter but never on the page and never never inside my library(ies), simple separation holy/profane. You need separations holy/profane. #Lindy   Permalink 12:39 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Talking skin in the game: the above pricing is what I have done heuristically, not formally, all my career in option trading. Every single person who held that “tails are expensive” have blown up (LTCM, Niederhoffer, bankers and other idiots) We just formalized & made public. Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Great day, finished the paper on option pricing under power laws. Mother of all results. Shows how tails are underpriced, EVEN now, how theories that tails are “expensive” are by sub-imbeciles. PLEASE TRY TO DEBUNK PAPER (but politely).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:18 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb To understand non-interventionism and skin in the game in international affairs, and what it has to do with multiscale localism   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntalebbot “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Your political opinion has no value if you don’t try to act closer to a judge than to an advocate. Your political opinion has no value if you are an unconditional supporter or detractor of a president. Gabish?   Permalink 11:10 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@CliffordAsness Nassim wouldn’t block me. He doesn’t block you for being wrong, which I might often be, but for being dishonest. Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@DanielLMcAdams If I were the neocons I’d resign in protest!! Time to go, boys!   Permalink 10:45 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The ancient Mediterranean : before monotheism, people changed and exchanged rites and gods as we do with ethnic food.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:16 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@encrier Today is the feast day of Saint Marina the Monk, or Marinos, a Lebanese saint and Patron Saint of Amiun in Northern Phoenicia (@nntaleb). She is venerated by Roman Catholics, Greek Orthodox, Maronites and Copts. May her story be an inspiration to those who read it. Permalink 1:12 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb But of course the map has mistakes. There were Phoenician colonies in Provence (Ramatuelle= רמת אל, possibly Marseilles ), Ionia (Miletus). Also note the Punic settlements in the South Med all the way to Spain, a route taken by the “Arabic” language, picked up for similarity Permalink 2:07 PM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Interesting for those of us who are both.   Permalink 1:00 PM – 16 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society; the empiricist an imbecile-proof one, or even better, a rationalist-proof one.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:20 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It does not mean you can’t criticize a system; it means you can’t go after the very foundations of the system that got you there –the Godel-Popper rule. Some minorities have minority rules.—————————   Permalink 8:14 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Friends, any questions not covered in Principia Politica?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #yoga Permalink 7:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Even in Technical Schools, administrators have degrees in “Education” hence indocrination & propaganda. These “education experts” are taking over universities & largely responsible for the rise in costs. Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ideas of expropriation are present among educators as they are prone to social envy. They frequent the rich & feel “I am smart why I am not rich” yet have NO hope of making it on their own. It is therefore natural they indoctrinate our children.   Permalink 5:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Before listening to Omar & Tlaib, consider than their parents chose to find REFUGE in the US, not another country. It’s a nonrandom choice. Illegals are crossing borders in ONE direction. I myself came to America because of its properties. Preserving them is my duty. Permalink 5:01 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Society is being destroyed by schools and college teachers. Your children are indocrinated by people who are doing what they are doing because of their limited intellect and practical skills. And the costs TO YOU of such indocrination are ballooning.   Permalink 5:20 PM – 15 Jul 2019

@RandPaul Proud that @realDonaldTrump and I argued with you against endless wars! @POTUS made it clear to all of us at the table, we are getting out of the Middle East quagmire. We’ve been there too long. Time to bring our troops home.   Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb MATH PROBLEM DU JOUR In honor of Alexander B. who passed a year ago last week by @SamuelGWalters cc:@SvetlanaBogom13   Permalink 9:42 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@Jeffrey_the2nd “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” @nntaleb Permalink 9:17 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) Steven Pinker misrepresented his meeting with me. I merely exchanged email & trivialities. There was NO technical discussion. So you can take with grain of salt what he says abt #epstein. Besides never diss pple who hosted you (dinner, plane). Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@MarkDice YouTube just demonetized my video about my trip to the White House! It was approved last night, and then as soon as it was published, it was demonetized. Really @TeamYouTube? C’mon. What a joke. Permalink 7:13 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@LebaneseAlefBet ܒܬܰܥܪܶܦ݂ ܬܶܩܪܐ ܗܰܝܕܰܐ ܠ ܟ݂ܰܛ؟ Bta3ref teqra hayda l 5at? ܐ ܒ ܓ ܕ #ܐܬ Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I am nearly certain she is vegetarian, maybe even vegan.   via @thedailybeast Permalink 5:46 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never never compromise. Say it the way it is. Permalink 3:51 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No. It’s not by arguing with “kindness & care” that you break academic mafias, criminal organizations, impostors (psychologists) & lobbying groups. It is by exposing them, making their lives miserable & targeting their audience. Never never argue with a paid BS vendor. Gabish?   Permalink 2:33 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Unlike correlation, Mutual Information scales to noise. Shows how correlation of .63 is half the information of .795! Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb As to language: stop the intellectual fraud.—————————   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Some philology: Ehden does not come from Paradise or Gan Eden with a (ע), but from Adon (same root as Adonis). Permalink 10:19 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Food is Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Traditional dress in Lebanon is East Med/Balkan not “Arab” Music in Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Genetics in Leb are East Med not “Arab” Language in Leb is NOT mutually understandable w/Class “Arabic” When will this Arabist fraud stop? Permalink 9:53 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Practically, your excellency @EUAmbLebanon, NO village in Lebanon has an Arabic name. Ehden is from Aramaic. So are ALL other villages in the North, with the exception of a few Greco-Roman names. Let’s stop this Arabism fraud.   Permalink 9:32 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@bmiloy We were observing the overlap between #RWRI crowd and @SS_strength crowd. I got to SS via @nntaleb; Grant got to Antifragile via @CoachRippetoe. The cultures attract: no-nonsense and no tolerance for BS. Permalink 4:43 PM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is the very definition of anachronistic bigoteering, a violation of the code of political expression, in Principia Politica. Soon we will ban every document written between the emergence of writing in Sumer and the Obama presidency as tainded with “prejudice”.   Permalink 12:42 PM – 13 Jul 2019

@SteveLaudig @nntaleb   Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Something to thicken the plot for @Safaitic: Did Semitic languages go to Ethiopia from Eurasia/the Levant? Ethiopia is clearly a back migration, and a recent one! Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@otrasenda_AC Thank you Maestro, since you started with the IQ debunking I stop using correlación, now using Mutual Information. I’ve been suspecting that correlation had a lot of issues but you out it Crystal clear Permalink 9:45 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Not how markets work. If the stock price surged on the news, it means the price (which had been pricing-in the information way before the announcement) was embedding the expectation of a more severe fine.   Permalink 8:24 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Separate people into 2 categories: prostitutes vs. those who do things for love, like Maestro B. did math for love. Academics are mostly prostitutes working for rank, metrics, prestige, etc. Or playing the system a la @sapinker — @MarcosCarreira helped & wrote an epilogue. Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb GENETICS (PROBABILITY) DU JOUR Points that appear equidistant in PCAs the way they are presented should not be! It you translate into Mutual information, you get a different story. A correlation of .5 is a lot closer to .4 than it is to .6 ! Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@EastMedMonitor Nice one answering NeoOttoman false education…. I wonder what % of “Turks” in Turkey has originated from the Mongol invaders? The rest are islamized Christian population! Do the Turks dare to check if their “history” is substantiated by genetics science?@nntaleb any comments?   Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@EastMedMonitor My comment is not to prove anything nationalistic but to say that the people wish good neibourhood relations,peace and stability and basically we are one race genetically in #EastMed .Prejudice,religion and false education turns one against the other Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Maestro B. lived for math, in a nonacademic way. He had a hearing problem & left academia to do math. Luckily he was close to finishing the book compiling the twitter probability riddles. The book is now finished; to be published thanks to @WolframResearch Pict 2 w before. Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb A YEAR WITHOUT MAESTRO ALEXANDER B. One Saturday morning, last July when I opened Twitter to engage Maestro Alexander Bogomolny, @CutTheKnotMath, I received a DM from his son saying he was no longer with us. Maestro had built a yuuugely motivated community around his math. Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never complain about your enemies. You can insult them, anger them, expose them, but never whine about them. Push them to complain about you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@spyrosmakrid Is there a better way to predict the next economic downturn? (see  ) By looking at the behavior of business cycles the answer is no   see also Graph So the best alternative is to accept it   @nntaleb @mikeharrisNY ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:37 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@oldmanjingles And @nntaleb is twitter’s, and the world’s, most overrated. don’t @ me. Permalink 5:28 PM – 12 Jul 2019

@iosif_lazaridis A misrepresentation of our Haak, Lazaridis et al. (2015) study @SmithsonianMag “They particularly latched onto two studies from 2015 which claimed to show … that predatory bands of young men from the Yamnaya culture of the Eurasian steppe swept…”   Permalink 4:24 PM – 12 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:59 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@normonics As @nntaleb has articulated, the existence of localism is related to the identification of what it is that in fact persists. This is related to Whitehead’s fallacy of misplaced concreteness: we confuse the administrative with the actual A town persists longer than a nation. Permalink 10:31 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@CaseyBHead A huge systemic risk that almost no one talks about, except @nntaleb. Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Thanks.   Permalink 8:43 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I’ve done numerous podcasts w/@EconTalker: each one is about a specific point; you try to go as deep as possible. It’s not about the person but the narrowly defined subject matter. Permalink 7:19 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Although I agree with libertarians on many points, the rich (Epstein) should never have an advantage w/ JUSTICE over a poorer (or weaker) person. Epstein used $$ to hire detectives & bully his victims & the prosecutors. Hence the Acosta deal. Legally. Permalink 6:35 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@ninconanco21 These yutzes need to read @nntaleb. Augustine was half Berber, who are Mediterraneans, not Arabs and not black Africans.   Permalink 6:18 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those not getting it: he inflicted worse than a double injury, a compound one. The girls were victims of abuse & subsequently the targets of a smear campaign. Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The most loathsome thing abt Epstein: he had detectives probe the lives of the girls who accused him, & reveal embarrassing stories in court. Girls were too scared to testify. This may explain Acosta’s deal. @AlanDersh, as his lawyeer, you must have known about these tactics. Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is a mistake to think that science has anything to do with scientists. Science is a mechanism. See SCALE TRANSFORMATION in my new treatise PRINCIPIA POLITICA   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:20 PM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Closed to podcasts; except for those with @EconTalker because it can be two-way Socratic. I learned a lot from him. & his audience is v. sophisticated. If your idea doesn’t grow from the conversation it becomes downright marketing. & painful conversation. TV lasts only 3 minutes. Permalink 10:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No   Permalink 9:40 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Some people are starting to get from the paper above why psychologists are charlatans   Permalink 9:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@MohajerSia @nntaleb I’ve learned more from reading the Incerto 2X this year than I have from wasting a good portion of my life in formal education. You probably won’t see this tweet but the Incerto helped me learn new ways/tools to better understand my life and the world around me. Permalink 9:07 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb New Draft (related to IQ testing): Common Misapplications and Misinterpretations of Correlation in Social “Science”   via @academia Permalink 8:24 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Updated my next technical book (Technical Incerto, Vol1). Will soooooon be done.   via @academia Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@MarcGoldich “Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience.” @nntaleb   Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@CTrivalle « La modernité nous inflige un châtiment double : vieillir beau- coup plus tôt et mourir beaucoup plus tard. » (@nntaleb ) Permalink 9:36 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard The #1 responsibility our president has is as Commander in Chief. As a soldier for more than 16 years who has deployed twice to the Middle East, I will be ready to be Commander in Chief on day one, and I won’t be listening to the chicken hawks clamoring for more war. #Tulsi2020 Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY & GENETIC MAPS The distance between points needs to be scaled differently from correlation methods: covariances do not map to informational distances. We need to redo genetic maps from scratch! @PZalloua Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Salafi sheikh in France is banning French students from studying non-Sharia law as “paganism”. Clearly, EU ketchupbrains, Salafism is not a “religion” but an absorbing law. EU ketchupbrains were fighting “terrorism” when that stuff has been funded by Saudi Barbaria/Qatar.   Permalink 2:45 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The smart thing Trump could do is dump him.   Permalink 7:04 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink with @auerswald Permalink 5:49 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Guru @GuruAnaerobic has a theory that what makes life easy for predators is that there are suckers who walk around with “Sucker” written on their forehead. Below: both the speaker and the audience.   Permalink 12:19 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Laibson at a lecture explained how pple are irrational & need nudging: “this is a great investment strategy guaranteed to make money. Yet people don’t invest much, they need nudge”. Didn’t hit him that citizens can detect that such strategy may be a sucker trap for Harvard profs. Permalink 11:45 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Nudging is the most sinister activity whereby IYIs (who can’t find a coconut on a coconut island) manipulate citizens. Much more sinister than outright state control because you don’t know feel the manipulation. People like Laibson and Thaler need to be exposed.   Permalink 11:35 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: You can’t fool entropy measures. Mutual information is nonzero for “uncorrelated” fat tails simply because they are uncorrelated but not independent! Also pulls the MI for a Student cc:@ArthurB Permalink 7:27 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Deutsche Bank, a summary: The Robert Rubin Trade. Banking is about hiding tail risks and the accumulation of tail exposures. Claims that it is “safe”. Society pays for the blowups. Permalink 4:40 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@BiankaB12 One of the more valuable lessons I’ve learned in school is that degrees without erudition are not worth the paper they were printed on. Later in life, @nntaleb confirmed this axiom, and his work helped change the course of my life in a lot of ways.   Permalink 4:15 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Random order   Permalink 4:13 PM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Epstein claims his activity is “Managing money for people with net worth > 1 bil”. DUBIOUS. Family office not an easy business; very unprofitable, people underpaid: billionaires have zillions of financiers watching their money. Plus the customer base is narrow. Permalink 1:57 PM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I once drove Mandelbrot to Epstein’s mansion in NY. Had never heard of him & nobody else knew him yet Epstein was a publicity hog. Warned M. maybe laundering or mafia, not finance, shd avoid him. There are financiers who leave no footprint but those never have public life.   Permalink 11:28 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Those who believe that “statistically the least educated vote Conservative.” means “the most intelligent” need some real world education.   Permalink 10:18 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY yawmiyyé Min wén jéyé klmét “tfingé”? Ma 3am lé2é masdara. Permalink 6:33 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Interventionistas (Iraq, Lybia, Syria) such as Thomas Friedman (@tomfriedman @NYT), thanks to industrial scale, have each caused more deaths than any artisanal serial killer.   Permalink 6:21 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@john_f_hamer A CELEBRATION OF WHAT WORKS: A conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, and why stated beliefs habitually fail to reveal underlying preferences.   @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:09 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Here is are probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Here is my probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO   Permalink 3:51 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is mostly noise. But read the “correlation” buzzwords BS to see how “Phd” pple don’t know how to think.   Permalink 4:53 PM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally, the country IQ for Lebanon is total fraud. It was designed by a fraudulent group [see tweets]. Even proxies don’t compute, since math education level is higher than Western Europe. Permalink 9:47 AM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Bed of Procrustes, 2nd ed. Permalink 5:56 AM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Determination   Permalink 6:24 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb IQ testing is like making cars compete in a racetrack, and use it to make claims about their ability to cross a dense forest (with unpaved roads) such as the Amazon. Permalink 5:07 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Crossing my fingers. I have some Champagne ready for the day when Bolton is out.   Permalink 1:50 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright. Permalink 8:28 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So Thanks to Maestro @ArmandDAngour we can surmise that people at the hippodrome of Tyre, Lebanon, were shouting “Eλα!” centuries before the very notion of “ya alla” and monotheism could have reached them. @Jonassibony Permalink 5:47 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ma 7ada min jdudak 7kyo lfs7a, la bin 2arib, w la min b3id. Permalink 5:40 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM,1 Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. Ministries & agencies aren’t run by ministers & transitory figureheads, but by a “deep local microstate” of civil servants who have been there for decades & “own” the inside. Worse: EPA was run by Monsanto, FAA by Boeing. Permalink 5:02 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb In today’s ultra-differentiated ecosystem, being a PROBABILIST is a valuable specialization. It’s all applied nonstandard statistics.   Permalink 2:21 PM – 5 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard 94,379 unique donors! Keep spreading the word and RT to share with friends. Become a debate donor and help bring our voice to the 3rd debates!   Permalink 12:40 PM – 5 Jul 2019

@MatthiasGalvin If there’s one thing I’ve learned from @nntaleb it’s that understanding probability theory is yuuuuuugely more useful than understanding tools of statistics Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@BryanAccra “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:08 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@yvespatte “It is vastly more respectable to come to politics rich than come out of it rich” “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connection imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer” – @nntaleb “Principia Politica”   Permalink 1:30 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@nntaleb More details from real world (finance) applications. Genetics data are Gaussian, making the transformation more robust. Permalink 4:17 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The Romanian Orthodox Church ows me 2 (re)conversions, at least.   Permalink 1:23 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@QuincyMckall @nntaleb explains this better I can   Permalink 1:08 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Shermer, fucking fabricator, you are trying to divert from the fact that the review is about ANOTHER book, skin in the game, which was done in Skeptic AFTER I exposed you as a charlatan. It is an ethical violation to use a journal to settle scores. An ethical violation. Permalink 8:48 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@LebaneseAlefBet Stop Abusing the Lebanese Language, in Lebanese we say LEBNÉNIYÉ not LEBNÉNIYÍN.   Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Trying genetic maps: they are misinterpreted. “Linear correlation” is nonlinear to information. But a trick for rescaling works when data is Gaussian. cc @ArthurB Permalink 7:19 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Il dormire fa come il mangiare (Qui dort dine) Dig deep and all these sayings are Med and #lindy   Permalink 7:16 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Eddie Hall @eddiehallWSM who deadlifted >1000lbs lost weight! Apparently without too much effort. Easier to go from strong and fat to strong and fit than from skinny (or skinny fat) to fit. Permalink 5:57 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem with academics is that they really think that nonacademics find them more intelligent than themselves.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:36 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@Sweetvinny1 Harris and Pinker make monstrous errors and Taleb catches them red handed (with documentation, you know, math, that don’t lie) and they attack his personality not his rebuttal and you support it, you fucking half wit. Permalink 4:01 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@Rhiju “boring is the only very bad thing for a book.” – @nntaleb (You can read this one a hundred times & discover something new everytime)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:55 PM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Hammurabi’s code: false accusers are to be treated as if they committed the violation themselves. #skininthegame #symmetry   Permalink 4:29 PM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Having lunch with a vegan fellow. He challenged me: produce solid research and he would change his mind. Solution: asked him to follow @Mangan150 for 40 days as well as the conversation around his posts. Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The larger the corporation, the more likely it will try to screw citizens. Your local butcher, barber, grocer, and baker aren’t in the business of lobbying/manipulating science. Monsanto, Weapons makers, Pharma live off coersion, manipulation of science, & propaganda #Corporatism Permalink 8:28 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) Monoculture & linguistic formalism cannot be maintained without state coersion. 2nd French Nobel in Literature was to Frederic Mistral who wrote in Provencal. The process started by Jules Ferry managed to get it extinct. Micronationalism (Catalan, Basque) is just localism Permalink 7:13 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fascism is an absorbing identity: Napoleonic killing all local languages/cultures; Italian unification, Franco, Ataturk. Worst is “Arabism”. + Monoculture + Centralized state + State defined “identity” via “educated elite” + Nonfractal   @QifaNabki Permalink 5:15 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Michael Shermer you published a review of #SkinInTheGame in YOUR journal AFTER I exposed you of a charlatan/intellectual fraud. It is unethical: you should reveal that you are using your journal for such purposes. UNETHICAL. Gabish?   Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, after all this procratination time to finish the work on the formalization of the #Lindy effect Permalink 5:28 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Shermer doesn’t get that when someone is called charlatan, & it is true, best strategy for @michaelshermer is to stay quiet. People may then scrutinize his “empiricism” & MY claims. & Using one’s journal for personal retaliation is an ethical violation.   Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@fractalharry Ce moment magique de Twitter où une personne like mon tweet et c’est mon auteur favori @nntaleb auquel j’étais très exactement en train de penser en ecrivant ce même tweet ! (Cf notion de iatrogénie notamment expliquée dans Antifragile.) Permalink 12:38 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The journalist Pinker @sapinker, while posing for an arbiter of statistical truths, mistakes data for anecdotes and anecdotes for data. Nobody illustrates pseudo-empiricism better than him & that other charlatan @michaelshermer Anecdotes vs statistical significance   Permalink 12:13 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Answer with Monte Carlo to illustrate Permalink 11:16 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If the Iliad survived, it is precisely because it is not summarizable. #Lindy   Permalink 10:49 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ThomasJefferson #liberty #independenceday #GOAT Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@TheDefenderA My reading choices have changed drastically since reading Incerto. Books by doers (unless it’s a novel, and isn’t a New Age fable i.e. Coelho). Via negtiva – no books by career professors or journalists (w very limited exceptions). Any philosophy – Lindy. Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Political discussions violate rigor/ethics. No matter how much you hate Trump, never blame him for stuff for which you didn’t blame others. The code of ethics is in PRINCIPIA POLITICA   Permalink 7:54 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@jadabdala Touristification of minds on the way from Athens to Berytus. In the photos – Tourist 1 – Tourist 2 (Coelho, plz no) – Me (fuck you tourists) Permalink 5:20 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) The entropy/information theory approach to correlation is mutual information, similar to Kelly criterion: How much can I bet on the value of Y knowing X? If Y certain (ρ=1), infinite. If ρ=½, tiny. All IQ psychology is worthless. Permalink 4:36 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@hhlahoud It’s amazing how many words we say, are Syriac in origin! Example: ِدِيرْ=ܕܝܪ =direct بال= ܒܳܐܠܳ = mind زَلمي= ܙܰܠܳܡܳܐ= a fellow Lebanese: ! ديرْ بالك من ها الزَلمي Arabic: ! كن حذراً من هذا الشخص English: Beware of this fellow! Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb DataScience 101 #RWRI showed how elementary but nonlinear concepts like “correlation” are poorly understood by pros. One needs to translate ρ into information. See how ρ= ½ is much closer to 0 than to a ρ=1. Yuuge diff betw .9 & .99 Psychologists cluelss for 50 years. 1/n Permalink 4:32 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb On second thoughts, yuuuuuuuuge caution is needed. There is no foreign “revolution” that Soros did not like… So I wonder about this policy. Plus some individuals can be suspect… So guarded optimism.   Permalink 3:05 PM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn.   Permalink 12:22 PM – 1 Jul 2019

@DanielLMcAdams Excellent analytical point.   Permalink 11:19 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ on IQ interpretation I wish some IQ psychologist could walk away from the verbalism BS and answer it. Permalink 11:08 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Trump Meets Kim In North Korea – Why Are The Democrats Hysterical? – today on the Liberty Report:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:28 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So as Maestro @ArmandDAngour has shown Έλα! has been present in Greek 1200 years before the language now called Arabic reached the Med. The distinction “ya alla” and “yalla” is obvious from noncorrelated usage.   Permalink 3:46 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Who needs an IQ test when you can detect someone’s coherence, intellectual depth, and ability to reason without circularity in… a single tweet?   Permalink 3:01 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@matthewglickman Please retweet to help #findmaxchung highschooler missing now for 12 days   Permalink 5:51 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Sign me up! Noninterventionism >>> everything else @tparsi   Permalink 1:43 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People don’t get that a publisher in NY selling books written in NY to readers in NY but printing in China needs to obey Chinese censorship. Most annoying is that publishers and authors were wimps: I was the ONLY one to stand up.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Here is my piece on the circularity of tests among other problems: testing is good for testtakers   Permalink 11:04 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Ther’s a serious mathematical mistake in the podcast. If you give more time to the tortoises you will still get a bell curve. The top 10% will have a different composition, fewer hares. You can’t get 20% in the top 10%: the bell curve is normalized. Otherwise @gladwell is right.   Permalink 10:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Globalization Permalink 9:49 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@Jaffer22915438 1) Real World Business & Marketing: What follows is a Tweetstorm that are real life lessons learned the hard way. This is a mini real world entrepreneurial guide. I included links to blog posts when appropriate. Inspired by RWRI & @nntaleb Permalink 8:44 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Wilson justifiably called @RichardDawkins a “journalist”. Dawkins doesn’t understand complicated probabilistic processes. But he is good at bullshitting & swaying the public.   Permalink 4:09 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@PabloinSilence Lo recomiendo de @nntaleb, muy en línea ( Principios 1, 3 y 10):   La fraternidad no tanto como un elemento de una terna sino como una escala necesaria en la organización política. Uno de los errores sería asumir q las políticas son “libres de escala”. Permalink 2:43 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@alxpr1c3 same as Nassim’s “it’s ok to confuse a stone for a bear; not a bear for a stone.”   Permalink 1:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@digvijoy_c   people who get localism and decentralization just seek it everywhere . #homeschool Permalink 7:45 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@JamesMarsh79 Modern Science Could Hit Roundup Maker Monsanto Where It Hurts – Bloomberg   Permalink 5:38 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Only 1% of people in desk professions understand their subject matter. But 99% of prostitutes understand prostitution. #RWRI 11 (#ExpertProblem) Permalink 2:03 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@KVdP_vliegt On my way back home from #RWRI reading @rorysutherland great book Alchemy and just read below quote. It re-iterates @nntaleb point that it is always rational to be paranoic. Permalink 12:58 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin I wanna thank all the people I met at #RWRI: @nntaleb for making it happen. @Mehdi_IR_DC & @chasechandler for their time. Special thanks to @trishankkarthik for always challenging/embarrassing me and to @famadeo for saving me face All others on and off twitter that I forgot. Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Philology du jour (more): Yalla! in Lebanese (let’s go!, come!) comes from Έλα! Permalink 9:48 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 14 That funding causes innovation. False. Innovation brings funding. Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@JackConnorWoo Still buzzing from #RWRI. Can’t describe in words how intellectually satisfying this course is, nor how good it feels to be around such smart people like @normonics @NiloufarKhavari @diomavro and of course the incredible @nntaleb. But I’m going to try, blog post (coming soon). Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The Lebanese Tshbi7 (shabba7) تشبيح comes from the Canaanite/Phoenician שבח, to praise, glorify (teshba7to moryo in Syriac= Praise the Lord). Its current meaning is “produce hot air” or “pontification with extreme exaggeration”. Permalink 6:03 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@amconmag “At the end of the Cold War, we were the lone superpower. Who forfeited our preeminence? Who bled us of 7,000 U.S. lives and $6 trillion in endless wars? Who got us into this Cold War II? Was all this the doing of those damnable isolationists again?”   Permalink 5:30 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@mdvex Corporatism is not capitalism. The true cost hasn’t been paid yet. Corporatism is politically postponed bankruptcy. Permalink 2:19 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@caitoz The Forever War Is So Normalized That Opposing It Is “Isolationism” “Under our current Orwellian doublespeak paradigm where forever war is the new normal, the opposite of war is no longer peace, but isolationism.” #war #peace #TulsiGabbard   Permalink 6:33 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@YoungSandboxer Unbelievable week #RWRI. Couldn’t recommend more Met intellektual hero of many years @nntaleb, as well as @trishankkarthik & others passionate about complexity + risk So much new knowledge—but the funny thing is, I am even more curious about this stuff than before the class! Permalink 4:12 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik And now, organically-developed heuristics from #RWRI attendees Let’s look at some old ones: “The world is more fat-tailed than you think.” Permalink 1:09 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@diomavro @nntaleb @trishankkarthik, say we should be concave to passwords. And hackers can’t take riskless pictures. #RWRI. Permalink 12:38 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lunch #RWRI Permalink 9:59 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin “If you wanna start Data Science from scratch, start with Information Theory.” -Nassim Taleb @nntaleb #rwri #datascience Permalink 9:08 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Machine learning Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Aerospace Permalink 6:31 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@diomavro @trishankkarthik trying to convince us that his bald head is more elegant than Russels axioms. #RWRI Permalink 11:10 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik “A probability distribution cannot tell you if the realization belongs to it.” Permalink 9:24 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb tawking about how the Masquerade problem (you can reject but not prove something is a Gaussian) is related to Gödelian self-reference… #RWRI Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@Jaffer22915438 I wrote a blog post on the plane based on a question Nassim asked me at #RWRI . I will proof tomorrow snd post. Topic? Facebook fraud. Stay tuned Permalink 12:48 PM – 26 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Rule 110 (by @stephen_wolfram) discussed by @financequant #RWRI Permalink 8:41 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@diomavro Raphael interrupting @normonics, and @nntaleb trolling him #RWRI Permalink 7:26 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Furthermore, such a program should also compensate those who did not borrow. And charge the universities and real estate developers for the costs of the bailout. #Skininthegame   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@paulanawfal Merely two days have passed and I have already learned so much. Let’s see what the next three days shall hold @nntaleb #rwri_11 Permalink 6:01 PM – 25 Jun 2019

@sergesapiens 4m post #RWRI10. If you accept @nntaleb maths anchored in the real world, put your skin in the #RWRI game! As much as you think you’ve got it, you‘ll learn some more and you’ll root yourself deeper in the moat with immediate benefits. Permalink 4:14 AM – 25 Jun 2019

@phl43 In 2008, Science published a paper which found that conservatives had a stronger physiological response to threat (which has since been cited more than 500 times), then more recently desk-rejected a failed replication with a sample size 4 times as large   Permalink 1:34 PM – 24 Jun 2019

@PaulSkallas I remember when I attended. You leave drained. Beat up. The benefits come later. Parts of it stick with you.   Permalink 1:29 PM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lunch Permalink 10:01 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI in new location, RWRI-11 Permalink 9:11 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Hawks are low-intellect, low-experience, low-skills people; if laid off, unusable in real-life, not even to wash you car. The absence of the #skininthegame filtering degrades decision-making.   Permalink 2:55 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb So, far, thanks to twitter, the definition is improving. Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, please tear apart my definition of verbalism. Permalink 7:40 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb FOR DISCUSSION, some definitions: Xenophobia ⧣ racism, even if it correlates. Xenophobia has gradations from indirect (homophilia/love for your family) to direct (state borders). Racism=considering that some races have, genetically, INFERIOR intellectual or moral attributes. Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: Skin in the Game is not, as Nudgeboy Thaler @R_Thaler & that picklebrain @CFCamerer say, an incentive that makes you perform better. It is, simply, a filter that operates on the collective.   Permalink 3:17 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@maxmarotti Important discovery at Amioun #Lebanon by LEB-ITA archeological team coordinated by Universita’ Udine @uniud & funded by @ItalyMFA . Amioun now proven an inhabited city since early bronze age , 3300 BC . @nntaleb @ItalyinLebanon Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@LieraMarco The dignity of a Mediterranean man selling his crops in Southern Italy. For centuries these people have taken care of themselves regardless of economic “growth” 1/2 ⁦@nntaleb⁩ Permalink 3:56 PM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb An example of retrospective bigoteering: flowing today’s standards backward in time, and not realizing it.   Permalink 9:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@Neanderthoughts Yes, making explicit the criteria for exposing hidden assumptions in “verbalism” is essential for minimizing political insanity. Especially now with inflammatory social media. Permalink 7:36 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For some obscure reason Italian archeologists are interested in Amioun my ancestral village! Progetto Archeologico Libano Settentrionale (PALiS/ NoLeP)   via @YouTube Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto is here! Very heavy, you can use for exercise. Permalink 5:56 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Nobody understand what “racism” & “xenophobia” mean. Everything is SCALE dependent. Arab tribes slaughter groups > (say) 5, welcome groups <5 with yuuge hospitality. Get rid of verbalism in Principia (next book). Avoid Pol Sci/Journo BS.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:47 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@diomavro Alright its takeoff time! Going to NY to attend #RWRI for 5 days! Excited to meet @nntaleb in person. Talebs books helped me embrace my Mediterranean attitude and put me back on the Orthodox trail. Hopefully will also get to meet some of the crew I’ve been stalking. Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) From experiene, I can’t find any (nonweight bearing) exercise that makes you go all out and raises the heart rate as much as running uphill (on a mild hill). And it is exhilarating. Permalink 5:08 PM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb TOPIC FOR DISCUSSION: Run a mile in mildly hilly terrain at least once a week, as fast as you can. Make sure you run completely out of breath on the local top of the hill. Do not run an inch more. Never slowly. Discuss. @GuruAnaerobic @VergilDen Permalink 5:01 PM – 21 Jun 2019

@Wayland_J_Blue @nntaleb you preach statistics in Homeric language. You helped me to understand that what the ancients lacked in sophistry, they had in wisdom 77 fold Permalink 10:40 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@willchamberlain Bush administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Iraq War Obama administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Libyan intervention And they have the chutzpah to critique Trump for CALLING OFF an Iran strike? Lunatics Permalink 7:06 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People with skin in the game are fundamentally localist. Empty suits in DC are not. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Some clarity: DEFENSE is when you defend your country at, or near, your borders. Not when you fight people several time zones away. Find another name for this “DEFENSE” spending. Permalink 3:04 PM – 20 Jun 2019

@antemachina “La modélisation ne peut pas être illimitée, car quelle que soit la vitesse et l’architecture de traitement de données d’un ordinateur, l’augmentation des dimensions à paramétrer excède assez vite toute possibilité de calcul.” Sur l’IA. Personne ne va retweeter ce message. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I will the local Orthodox priest…   Permalink 11:29 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Social scientists use correlation not knowing what it means. Then they say they are “empirical”. Permalink 11:24 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb All psychology is effectively useless. A correlation of .35, even when not circular, reduces uncertainty by 0 adjusting the noise & error propagation.   Permalink 11:13 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists are spreading a post “debunking my empirical claims” saying “but there is correlation”. They aren’t smart enough to get my claim that data has “correlation”. But It’s meaningless, circular, noisy, nonadditive & under nonlinearitiees, fails.   Permalink 11:07 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@yaneerbaryam How can we prevent ethnic violence? Instead of forcing people to move so that they are mixed or separated, introducing well-defined boundaries that allow for more local autonomy can enable peaceful coexistence. #WorldRefugeeDay   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:33 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@manukankani One of the best explanation on socialism and capitalism in one minute by @naval cc: @nntaleb Permalink 1:14 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@Mangan150 Strange how following mainstream health advice like eating plant-based, using seed oils, avoiding the sun, and taking a statin will turn you into a shell of a human being. Can that be a coincidence? Permalink 6:54 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “Never argue with people in private (you will not convince them); argue in public to convince others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 3:39 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Seed oil is not #Lindy. As with transfats idiots are still using it as “healthy alternative”, particularly in France. Even in Belgium they use it as replacement for tallow. Same mistake twice!   Permalink 3:36 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@drjasonfung An Anti-Aging Pill? Think Twice   Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The best training you can offer yourself is detecting circularity. It teaches you to think not just forward in 2nd, 3rd steps, but backward in minus 1st, 2nd steps, etc. Modernity is full of circularities (education, citation rings, journalism, classifications, IQ, psychology…) Permalink 6:00 AM – 19 Jun 2019

@EHSANI22 This book catalogues how a significant part of spoken Arabic in #Aleppo #Syria is originally Assyrian / Aramaic This also covers many the small towns and villages including Afrin , Manbej, Shougour and Ma’ara (All are Assyrian / Aramaic words) The total list is astounding Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I am honored to be on the U.S. watchlist.   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Most frequent comments when I run into someone: 1) Are you “working on” another book? No, it’s all one book. All Merged. And it’s not work 2) You look thinner in person than in pictures 3) You seem much, much less of an asshole than in your Twitter feed Permalink 5:03 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists there are frauds. This is the type of work they do. They just show the resulting plot line. Permalink 4:59 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Weeks away from shipping Incerto (5-volume Hardcover Box Set)   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb FORECASTING SHOULD BE IN REAL LIFE Foreword for the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition. We are now working on the M5 competition which should be the mother of all forecasting checks! Permalink 3:36 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb In other words, if you took 2 IQ tests there will be a variation. Such variation is BIGGER than the one you’d get from the effect ! (Not counting the circularity that good test takers tend to get degrees so they get some jobs without necessarily performing better). FRAUD Permalink 3:12 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The article is a (naive) fraud. They show a line, not a cloud of points so we don’t see the variance & the gaming. But these idiots (psychologists) proved the following: if in spite of the circularity, the diff betw 55 and 130 is so small for the variance, IQ is just hot air.   Permalink 1:52 PM – 17 Jun 2019

@SeyyAli_Mirzaei #Proud to speak @googlecloud on the importance of being #AntiFragile (@nntaleb) learning/growing from chaos at @gcdcislamabad @TensorFlow @googledevs. Thrilled & inspired to see more #women in #Tech space in #Pakistan. T-shirt reads: “Less gender roles, more paratha rolls!”   Permalink 10:46 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@gbponz Rep. Tulsi Gabbard opposes impeachment and dislikes identity politics. And she’s running for president, writes @mtracey   di @WSJ @nntaleb Permalink 6:19 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Incerto so far is 2000 pages long. It is the summary. I doubt there is a shorter summary of the Incerto than the Incerto. Permalink 4:27 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb There’s no such thing as “scientific evidence showing safety” but somethg called “failure to reject” at some significance which was NEVER done for GMOs as Monsanto spent more energy smearing critics than testing. Journalists are carriers of charlatanism.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:22 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This crap was promoted into my feed. If a book can be summarized, it’s not a book but a magazine article; don’t read it and don’t read its summary.   Permalink 11:42 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Syrians in Lebanon: no advice without skin in the game.   Permalink 5:15 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@LieraMarco You don’t need a psychologist to save a guy who wants to commit sucide. A truck driver is much more effective. @nntaleb   Permalink 5:12 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@spectatorindex Oldest cities in the world. 1. Jericho, Palestinian Ter. 2. Byblos, Lebanon 3. Aleppo, Syria 4. Damascus, Syria 5. Susa, Iran 6. Faiyum, Egypt 7. Sidon, Lebanon 8. Plovdiv, Bulgaria 9. Gaziantep, Turkey 10. Beirut, Lebanon (Telegraph) Longer list:   Permalink 3:56 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese government is always accused of racism by first order bigoteers (with no SITG) whenever they discuss the case of Syrian refugees (close to 20–30% of the population), then put on the defensive having to explain “they are not racist, but”.   Permalink 2:49 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Large governments are weapon merchants: UK, US, France, Russia. Foreign “policy” is dictated by weapons manufacturers. The press (@tomfriedman , @BretStephensNYT) are just marketing agents, something effective under the name “democracy”. Which is why we need @TulsiGabbard Permalink 2:07 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@datenverstehen @nntaleb apparently localism is on the rise in UK Permalink 8:01 AM – 15 Jun 2019

Bill Gates, Psychologists, Academics, Baalbeck, Revenge, Amsterdam , Quillette, Pinker, Napoleon, Kashkari, Bayer | Twitter

@nntaleb We should move the bulk of civil servants to Alaska.   Permalink 6:55 AM – 15 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 3:10 PM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Thanks to @NonMeek, an explanation of the point. Permalink 1:56 PM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I managed to fool 6000 people yesterday.   Permalink 8:05 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Even more think that psychology is scientific.   Permalink 8:03 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) Elsewhere, I discuss the same point within ergodicity. Worrying about homicide & terrorism is extremely rational. Same with GMOs. Permalink 6:45 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Beware naive empiricism funded by @BillGates. An insult to risk and probability. Permalink 6:29 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Arabs took locals as slaves. They use same word for “slave” ( عبد) and “subsaharan African” … even in classical poetry! (هجاء كافور) The pseudoliberal propaganda works well… for now. Permalink 5:04 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb (Except it misses that Ethiopia uses Amharic not Arabic) Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This is a better map showing the severity of Arab colonialism in Africa. Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb When you look at the national languages of Africa as colonialism, you can see that it is split into French, English, and Arabic colonialism (plus residues s.a. Portuguese). For the “liberals” in academia, IYIs, & BS vendors a la Edward Said, Arabic isn’t colonialism.   Permalink 4:04 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The price of fighting with more than one state without clear offers to settle: all your enemies become natural friends. The coalition: Russia-China-Iran so far created by these imbecile saber-rattling neo-cons Next, naturally, Turkey Even Israel is flirting with China.   Permalink 3:41 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb So far 100% of the psychologists I have examined appear to be clueless about the meaning of something as elementary as correlation. It is all helped by that idiot @primalpoly supplying papers with “evidence” for the noncircularity of “IQ”.   Permalink 3:32 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Figured out why 99% of academics have to be misfit, 3rd rate intellectually, by construction. You observe, say in probabilistic matters, yuuge inconsistencies. When you point it out to them, they require a “reference”. OK: write the fucking “reference”.   Permalink 3:07 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Yuuge vindication for Ole Peters @ole_b_peters and people who doubt psycholophasters of “utility”.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:03 AM – 13 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, a question. Do verbal surveys (in the form of multiple answers) work? Permalink 7:55 AM – 13 Jun 2019

@nntaleb He forgot French: “clebs” or “clébard”   Permalink 5:46 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@lizzie363 THIS IS WHY CASH IS SO IMPORTANT!! Economists singing the praises of a cashless society are actually arguing for authoritarianism!!!   Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb My video explaining why @BillGates should do more thinking, less naive empiricism a la Pinker.   Permalink 4:15 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “Another marker for charlatans: they don’t voice opinions that can get them in trouble.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:59 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Here is the approach showing the relatedness of Levantines with Persans and Anatolians vs Arabs. Four Population Tests. Permalink 3:18 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb You cannot shill without being eventually discovered. Thank you Monsanto papers & the U.S. legal system. Permalink 3:15 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb David Ropeik @dropeik is one of the Monsanto shills who went after our precautionary principle.   Permalink 3:13 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 4) The Bill Gates who follows his instinct & grandmother’s paranoia is smarter that the @BillGates who tries to use statistics a la Pinker and reads stuff written by psycholophasters.   Permalink 1:23 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 3) Deeper discussions with proofs here.   Permalink 1:04 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb My solution Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) Never compare risks with fat tails to regular ones. The law of large numbers works differently. Plus ergodicity. We survived hundreds of millions of risks thanks to paranoia. We don’t need to be lectured by pseudostatisticians. @BillGates Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 1) Actually people’s fears line up to tail risks much better than naive empiricists. This is monstrously ignorant a la Steven Pinker.   Permalink 12:49 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (Air travel recreation). Acrtually the bound is tighter. Prove it is >= 27. Permalink 11:53 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@black_swan_man Part 3 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #riskmitigation #longgamma #squeezer Permalink 11:21 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lebanese are much more related to Iranians than to “Arabs”. Some people may hate the news.   Permalink 6:59 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:08 PM – 10 Jun 2019

@ronportnoir @nntaleb This Chomsky quote about cockroaches reminds me of what you say about psychiatry.   Permalink 2:50 PM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Turks and Greeks should be made aware of this. And the Lebanese, of course. [Note this is by country borders: Southern Italy and Northern Iran should be blue]   Permalink 9:34 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The monks may be confused linguistically, but the views are breathtaking… Note the monastery (red roof top) on the right, hugging the slope, impenetrable, out of the reach of the Ottomans & other invaders. Permalink 4:53 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Surprise: entirely home farmed mushrooms, mozzarella, vegetables for a pizza joint in Byblos & Amioun. (“Una Pizza”) Permalink 4:43 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb “Chemphobia”: while the term was coined by industry shills, is entirely rational. Scientifically so. Some chemicals are safe but we never really know before the #LindyEffect takes its course. Elementary statistical significance. Very elementary.   Permalink 4:25 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “If someone is making an effort to ignore you, he is not ignoring you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:11 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This thread a summary of PRINCIPIA POLITICA.   Permalink 12:03 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2- Added section on xenophobia/discrimimation at some scale, not others.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:06 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb IF levels of lipids are ~ in 2 pop., but not *something else*, AND there are yuuge CVD differences, then the something else is necessary for CVD, perhaps in conjunction with lipids, which requires a joint probability distribution. Precautionarily, avoid that *something else*. Permalink 10:10 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Statistically, by exclusion, we are zooming in on a different story for CVD: it supports the 1-2 meals a day, feast/fasting ancient heuristics & traditions. Minimize exposure time to insulin, especially under Med genetics. @Mangan150   Permalink 9:54 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@Juan_indaliano @nntaleb this genetic research on southern Spaniards seems to support your “languages travel; genes less so” assertion.   Permalink 11:18 AM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb “Linear” correlation is a misnomer: it does indeed measure a linear relationship between variables, BUT it is nonlinear.   Permalink 10:15 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Answer: .87! See equation 13. Permalink 10:07 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb SUNDAY QUIZ For a correlation number between X and Y, what is the “half point” correlation between 0 and 1, that is, the correlation for which you have half the uncertainty about X if you observed Y ( or vice-versa) compared to not having observed Y? Permalink 9:50 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) SJL (#SocialJusticeLunatics), grievance studies windbags and other imbeciles may dominate the universities, but… they are underepresented in the jury system. This and the Monsanto destruction should restore our faith in the system.   Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 1) In America, we may have universities run by SJL (#SocialJusticeLunatics), we may have bad government, controled by lobbyists, but we have a well functioning legal system. If someone tries to mess w/you and your small business, call a lawyer.   Permalink 11:35 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Yuuuuuge mystery   Permalink 9:46 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 9:28 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Baalbeck contains these gigantic stones, 1650 tons! It dwarfs pretty much anything I’ve seen elsewhere in the ancient world, makes the acropolis look like a Las Vegas version. Permalink 9:27 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb And the road through Mt Lebanon cuts through walls of snow. Permalink 7:03 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Baalbeck, behind the temple of Dionysos with archeologist @DrWissam and @PZalloua No Graeco-Roman ruin comes close in size. Permalink 5:10 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@DegenRolf Everything that psychologists have told us about the detection of deception may just be a big fat lie.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:09 PM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, Correction: I granted on twitter the Persian language rights because I can’t transact. Permalink 8:17 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin Honored & Happy to announce that I will attend (as a learner) #RWRI this June 24th on a very generous scholarship by @nntaleb. Thank you Ostedhna! Now back to reading, programming and sharpening my math and probability. @trishank see you in NY! #risk #sitg #math #proba Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The highest honor: a pirated trnslation of Skin in the Game in Persian.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Convent Mar Antonios Qozachia ܩܘܙܚܝܐ: Boasting the first printing press in the “Arab world” in 1610, except that the press was in… Aramaic (Syriac)! Arabists are imbeciles. (Note the red color in the books) Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Ergodicity rephrased by @naval   Permalink 11:19 PM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb footnote: The Latin alphabet is ALSO Phoenician. Permalink 10:37 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, my PRINCIPIA POLITICA for comments   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:56 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@rorysutherland A lot of this is debatable. Unless you are a journalist – ie one of the hand-loom operators of the 21st Century – in which case it chimes with your own dismal experience. Instrumental inequality has never been lower. Take out property and education and everything is cheaper.   Permalink 1:39 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For those who celebrate, Happy Eid! Permalink 1:32 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 13 A correlation of 50% reduces uncertainty by 6-13% not more. Meaning psychology is a citation ring/political agenda. Permalink 11:54 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@chemblette   Time to ban rent-seeking? What kind of value can this former politician create for society in his newfound capacity? @nntaleb @FrazerAnderson Permalink 9:46 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Erratum: economist -> social scientist (mainly psychologists)   Permalink 12:08 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For psychologists who are not blind, a correlation of 3/4 is visually much closer to 0 than to 1. That’s the logic of the scaling. My metrics look at the total surface (in the square) divided by the one inside the circle (sort of). Permalink 10:46 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “People tend to whisper when they say the truth and raise their voice when they lie.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:09 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@hugowiz «… it seems to me that people flood their stories with numbers and graphs in the absence of solid or logical arguments.» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #data #risk img. @thefredyjacob Permalink 6:19 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People starting to write Lebanese in Lebanon… Permalink 6:13 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@black_swan_man Part 2 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #crash #robots #CTA #fooledbyrandomness Permalink 5:37 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Revenge is a moral obligation.   Permalink 10:18 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb RESCALING CORRELATION to its own informational importance Permalink 9:13 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@RobRastapop Yes. Funny how most don’t get this. 1. True Revenge is not petty. 2. Revenge is not about justice. It’s about preempting future injustice. Permalink 5:12 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb These are the two ways you should interpret correlation. The third method, entropy based mutual information gives similar results. Permalink 11:58 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 12 “Europe” is not a real continent (at best the daughter of a Phoenician king). Its definition is political, now affected by a religious separation. If “Europe” were to be rationally defined, it should start in the Zagros/Caucasus. Permalink 11:45 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Time spent on revenge is never wasted. Permalink 11:00 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People have a hard time with via negativa. But your grandmother gets that you get to truth by removing the crap.   Permalink 9:16 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Question: What is the difference between my function \phi[\rho,k] and Var[X|Y]? Yuuge differences, as \phi takes into account the fact that E[X|Y]=\rho Y (simplifying for normalized variables) which loses tractability in the tails. Both stories makes psychologists look v. bad. Permalink 9:03 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb TUTORIAL: Where we show what correlation means under VERY standard Gaussian assumptions (breaks down under fat tails). You need a correlation of .87 to reduce half the uncertainty! Permalink 10:31 PM – 3 Jun 2019

@NicuMihalache @nntaleb surprise, surprise …   Permalink 11:09 AM – 3 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Refined the metric on the way back to Phoenica. We are interested in the range around K. How much does correlation(X,Y) reduce your uncertainty about Y given X? Permalink 8:50 AM – 3 Jun 2019

@dwnhogendoorn @nntaleb Napoleon eroded SITG Permalink 11:32 PM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Part II to come. Flaneuring in Amsterdam with a notebook and… cannot resist doing probability. Permalink 2:59 AM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A correlation of .5 (assuming it is rigorously obtained) carries practically NO information for the tails, cannot explain OUTPERFORMANCE. (Or why psychologists are toooooooootal idiots). #Scienceishard Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Thank you twitter Macedonian origin FOR THE PLANT.   Permalink 7:51 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I mildly disagree with my two erudite friends @turlevnon & Hareth. Many, many Italian and French terms came via 1) Sabir (the maritime Lingua Franca), and 2) Turkish.   Permalink 7:17 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@nntaleb SATURDAY PHILOLOGICAL SPECULATIONS Parsley in Greek Μαϊντανός, N.Macedonian “magdonos”, Levantine ba2dunés, Kurdish “bekdenus”, Turkish “maydanoz”. Yet it is most prevalent in the N. Levant (taboulé). What is, if any, the Semitic correspondent? Is it Macedonian in origin? Permalink 7:12 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “The first one who uses “but”, has lost the argument.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:50 PM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb What the fuck does causality have to do with this? Permalink 9:34 PM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Yes, is Quillete about freedom of speech or support for a certain type of “science”.   Permalink 7:34 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb 8 (Final)- Napoleon Carrying a 4lb 870-page UK hardcover book across airports and cafés made me enjoy it better. Something @rorysutherland can understand. You don’t know what you really like until you actually try it. Was not expecting to prefer the heaviest possible version! Permalink 7:17 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Here is my “why correlation is not usually correlation”, another problem that the one in the original post.   Permalink 6:56 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Suspicion @Quillette/@clairlemon aren’t abt freedom of speech but cover for agenda: I’m AGAINST muzzling @NoahCarl90 w/program abt “cognitive differences” for “groups” (euphemism for racism) BUT find him a charlatan They’re upset about “charlatan” NOT happy w/support for freedom   Permalink 6:41 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb The verbal explanation.   Permalink 6:23 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Part 2 of the paper; why entropy methods are vastly more robust.   Permalink 6:15 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Nothing to do with “causation”, I will block anyone who brings down the subject to that mantra. Correlation does not imply correlation. Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Why almost all social scientists are clueeeeeeless about what correlation means. Permalink 5:59 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb The Greco-Phoenician research fraternity GPRF: with @spyrosmakrid and Cypriots at the Univ. of Nicosia. Permalink 5:32 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Neurobiology is the most effective of pseudosciences because something derived in a lab fools you into thinking it’s hard science. Luckily we can tell it as it has the statistical rigor of S. Pinker crossed with the Marx Brothers.   Permalink 5:09 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb After requests to have predictions of “sign” for random variables, settled w/@spyrosmakrid for tracking of buy/sell P/L (one in real life does not buy or sell “signs” but buys something at a price, and sells at another price). The compromise should please @mikeharrisNY Permalink 2:29 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Unless you ignore them, of course. Permalink 1:49 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb You’ll end up resembling your worst enemies. Permalink 1:46 AM – 31 May 2019

@mdvex None of the successful people I know take notes.   Permalink 11:19 PM – 30 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you want to teach someone a real skill, teach him how to fail. He will never learn it in school.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:48 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb The gym at the Republic of Amioun in Northern Phoenicia. The church in the bakground (circle) is where 8 of my ancestors have been resting for 2 centuries. The rest are in another church to the right. Permalink 1:51 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb Fixed a few typos Permalink 1:21 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 7-Napoleon He had a strong Italian accent but then almost every provincial French person had an accent. People in Burgundy rolled the “r”s. His biographers are using today’s norms retrospectively. 8- Napoleon III was not related to him, DNA shows. Someone cheated. Permalink 8:33 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb My nightmare, SCIENTISM promoted by @clairlemon et al: +Genes determine something <=> We know which genes +Traits are heritable <=> performance is heritable +Simple domains (running) = high dim complex domains +Mean = extrema (no minority rule) Permalink 5:57 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 6- Napoleon His central flaw: viewed the world (including socioeconomic life) as a top-down streamlined military structure. Could not grasp selforganization and complexity. Permalink 4:29 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 5- Napoleon Post Russia, he was no longer Napoleon. “Napoleon did something completely out of character. He vacillated”. Permalink 3:29 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb I stand against the termination of @NoahCarl90, for a simple reason: he is a charlatan. + He is a technically unsophisticated race obsessed “researcher” with a SINISTER agenda, + His research is so unrigorous it needs to be published so people can LAUGH at his project.   Permalink 1:54 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb Discussion with Spyros: why for fat tailed variables we need to use Mean Deviation NOT standard deviation, even when variance is finite. Permalink 1:24 AM – 30 May 2019

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #crash #Sikh #Nihang #Gatka Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb My experience of IQ psychologists is that they are very dumb to do science & probability, yet never realize how dumb they are because they only talk to dumb psychologists. Yet they want to be arbiters of intelligence & PUT DOWN entire races & groups. Like this @GarettJones   Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 May 2019

@NonMeek “There is no significant #correlation (or any robust statistical association) between #IQ and hard measures such as wealth.” -@nntaleb …and here’s the comic strip to accompany that Permalink 10:46 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb General Scholarships are open for RWRI 11 June 24-28 (Real World Risk Institute)   Permalink 6:18 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb Mystery? Permalink 3:40 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, please help w/design for the @spyrosmakrid M5 competition. 1)Choise of variables 2) (more important) WHAT to forecast. X after 5 days, 1m, Min(X), Max(X), Max(X-Y). Important for decisions to get Min & uncertainty since “never cross a river 4 feet deep on average” Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb 4- Napoleon Although the author tries to avoid spoilers when progressing through the ~45 battles, there is no suspense in the book: outcome is known. If something in Paris is named after it, (Jena, Austerlitz, Rivoli, Wagram, Castiglione), Napoleon won. Otherwise, he lost. Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Happiness is not defined by how people say they “feel” but by what they do. (Revelation of preferences) #Skininthegame @rorysutherland   Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink; Cypriot squid ink. Permalink 11:41 AM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Taleb = φιλόλογος (Philologos ) Permalink 7:19 AM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Σήμερα είμαι στη Λευκωσία με τον @spyrosmakrid για να συζητήσουμε τον διαγωνισμό M5 Competition. Permalink 9:19 PM – 27 May 2019

@VergilDen “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average” The Black Swan, Taleb   Permalink 9:56 AM – 27 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “Sometimes people ask you a question with their eyes begging you to not tell them the truth.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- My instinct tells me that most of these “correlations” used by psychologists become very weak associations if one uses more rigorous entropy methods. Permalink 6:07 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb One sub-explanation. The other is nonlinearity: nonlinear correlation means .5 is almost 0.   Permalink 6:02 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb 1- Once you look into these correlations, you see that below .8 they can be meaningless.   Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 May 2019

@NilsPetersen80 @nntaleb inspiring speech. Trials and error are “our” successstory. Could listen for hours.   Permalink 3:38 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb Do not conflate nationalism and decentralization. Both voters and politicians can be fooled by labels. Permalink 2:31 AM – 27 May 2019

@dwnhogendoorn There’s a clear self-affinity between autophagy and a regenerative urban waste disposal. Looking for good, category crossing resources on autophagy.   Permalink 12:38 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb Borges’ post in @bill_easterly   Permalink 6:30 AM – 26 May 2019

@nntaleb Words and languages are created by people with #Skininthegame: farmers, hunters, traders, prostitutes, carpenters, dancers, & builders. Not by linguists, academics, scribes, bureaucrats, librarians, grammarians, & other acroparasites. [Inspired by Borges & @bill_easterly] Permalink 11:48 PM – 25 May 2019

@Mangan150 Some people objected when I said that the establishment doesn’t want you healthy, saying that it’s not a conspiracy – though I didn’t say it was. But the actions of Facebook in deleting a low-carb group, likely at the behest of Big Food, make it look like – what? Permalink 5:05 PM – 25 May 2019

@PaulSkallas “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb   Permalink 2:16 PM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Although, after a wet lunch Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Mykonos: a destination for people who have way too many trees at home AND want to go to the beach. Permalink 5:19 AM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Mykonos: reminiscent of the Lebanese deforestation of 1917 during the Ottoman blocade. Permalink 1:43 AM – 25 May 2019

@semacks “It is always suspicious when a person’s ideas line up perfectly to a specified party….” I only wish this didn’t describe 90%+ of people who comment on public policy   Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 May 2019

@dougalpollux   #antifragility Permalink 7:22 AM – 24 May 2019

@nntaleb Closer Permalink 10:26 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- I do not hide that I am writing a political code. My own. No explanations, no arguments. No attempts at convincing. Take it or leave it. Permalink 2:34 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb 2- People have a hard time shedding their legal system. Napoleon lost; his code stayed, even spread to countries Napoleon never invaded! (Rather, the code of Cambaceres). Lesson: write a tight, coherent code. We are codifying the #PrecautionaryPrinciple Make it indispensable. Permalink 1:42 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb THREAD 1-Christianity couldn’t spread like Islam into Central Asia, Africa. It offered no law for traders. Rome (&Berytus) had the law. So Christianity stayed limited to around the Roman empire. The Savafids could not convert out w/o losing the legal system. So they adapted. Permalink 1:35 PM – 23 May 2019

@BrankoMilan Trump (so far) likes to talk military, but not to use it–which is a major improvement upon W and most likely upon what Hillary would have done.   Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 May 2019

@RalphNader Still waiting. -R   Permalink 7:50 AM – 23 May 2019

@TMFStoffel It’s funny how once people have skin in the game, virtue signaling ceases and true colors shine through. @nntaleb   Permalink 7:45 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb Northern Phoenicia: the best gym in the world in my ancestral village. Convinced the owners to try teaching ⁦@SS_strength⁩ ⁦cc:@CoachRippetoe⁩ Permalink 7:32 AM – 23 May 2019

@OndPr Toute la campagne des européennes du Rassemblement National peut se resumer à un seul mot: Localisme. Au RN on s’inspire des idées de @nntaleb.   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb We need to put an upper limit for RWRI returns.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 23 May 2019

@TalebWisdom Thursday Wisdom: “If someone’s insults’ bother you; it is evidence that you respect him.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb It doesn’t mean banning free speech, but banning nonpublic contact with elected officials and government decision makers. All discussions between paid advocates and goverment pple should be made public AND easily accessible. Permalink 6:14 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb Unpaid advocacy is NOT professional lobbying. Permalink 5:46 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)? Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Permalink 5:39 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)? Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Permalink 5:39 PM – 22 May 2019

@apgox No. As @nntaleb wrote, “When I don’t have skin in the game, I am usually dumb”. For example, if I took out contents insurance, I’d probably be less vigilant to secure my property. If I took out robot replacement insurance, I’d probably be more prone to being replaced by robots. Permalink 4:34 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb Liver is #Lindy. Not so much muscle meat.   Permalink 10:53 PM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- Napoleon + Ate his meals in 10 min. He was also rushed in other activities where it is not recommended + Liked to “punish infrequently, but severely”. Reminds me to deliver & continue my ~4Y long dumping on that despicable @Noahpinion   Permalink 9:58 PM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, if anyone is interested to help with a fundraiser for @TulsiGabbard next July in Westchester county, NY, please notify here. We need to help put her on the map before the arms merchants get to her. Permalink 9:26 AM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb Mongolian here is written in Syriac   Permalink 3:21 PM – 20 May 2019

@nntaleb “No rumor is true until officially denied.”   Permalink 10:37 AM – 20 May 2019

@ole_b_peters Expected utility theory tries to compute the future psychological consequences of the actions of your clones in parallel universes. Ergodicity economics tries to compute the future physical consequences of the actions of your younger self. What’s more relevant to you? Permalink 4:38 AM – 20 May 2019

@nntaleb Translation: a famous “businessman” from Naples offered French president Macron to “solve a problem” (or remove a “pebble from his shoes”), an offer Macron could not refuse.   Permalink 3:58 PM – 19 May 2019

@Morunoyo Rise Above Mount Lebanon 1/5 Permalink 8:51 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb Nationalism, the nation state, and Arabism destroyed the best, most sophisticated, most learned, most open-minded city in the Mediterranean. #localism #DeMediterraniation   Permalink 5:32 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 11 “Arab” science wasn’t Arab, but Persian (Avicenna, Biruni, AlKhawarizmi (Algorithm), etc.), Syriac, Chaldean, from long traditions that preceded the Arab invasion. They just wrote in Arabic; Newton wrote in Latin but isn’t called “Italian”. Permalink 4:52 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb Obama and Geithner gave banks the largest bonuses in 2010. Acroparasite Geithner later got a $$$ job with the industry. This has nothing to do with capitalism. I want Geithner in JAIL.   Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy   Permalink 1:02 PM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb When you sell options, treat the possible as likely. When you buy them, treat the likely as merely possible.   Permalink 11:34 AM – 18 May 2019

@rj7050 According to Taleb, ‘means’ of two distributions cannot be compared if one has fatter tails. In my experience of money management, I have not met a single investor who understands that, but money managers understand that and sell crap.@nntaleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb When you hedge, treat the possible as likely. When you speculate, treat the likely as merely possible. Permalink 9:35 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Nice Surprise Incerto now in 41 languages… Just signed the ARMENIAN contract. Permalink 7:04 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Please mark my words. Neil Kashkari @neelkashkari is a DANGEROUS imbecile.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Bayer’s Shady PR Firms: FleishmanHillard and Ketchum via @USRightToKnow   Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 May 2019

@BenjaminNorton This propaganda is embarrassingly bad. Neo-McCarthyite hacks are implying anti-war candidate @TulsiGabbard is a Kremlin shill. Their “evidence”? Donations from renowned scholar Stephen F. Cohen and from a US peace activist who doesn’t want war with Russia   Permalink 1:09 PM – 17 May 2019

@sahouraxo Why isn’t this bombshell story about #Syria’s #Douma front page news worldwide? Because it destroys the false narrative of the corporate press—the very same media now manufacturing lies for the latest regime change wars planned for #Iran and #Venezuela.   Permalink 11:25 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb FRIDAY INTERESTING MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb Bloomberg Interview N N Taleb May 2019   via @YouTube Permalink 9:25 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb IMBECILES w/low comprehension abilities. It’s NOT saying entrepreneurs are “braver than troops”, only that in ALL fields risk takers need to be treated w/ respect by nonrisk takers who leech on them. Clearly there are degrees of risk taking. IMBECILES   Permalink 8:26 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb When people call you intelligent it is almost always because they agree with you. Otherwise, they would call you arrogant. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb Just posted a new paper Option Pricing Under Power Laws: A Robust Heuristic   via @academia Permalink 7:48 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb The problem of self employment Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb “No probability without ergodicity”.   Permalink 7:07 AM – 16 May 2019

@TulsiGabbard Trump promised to get the US out of “stupid wars.” But now he and John Bolton are on the brink of launching us into a very stupid and costly war with Iran. Join me in sending a strong message to President Trump: The US must NOT go to war with Iran. #TULSI2020 Permalink 6:01 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY FRIDAY:The Mother of all Fat Tails: the log Pareto distribution Prompted by a discussion with @financequant It is not discussed in textbooks/web but easy to rederive. Permalink 4:25 AM – 16 May 2019

@normonics The #PrecautionaryPrinciple is necessary to save us from dangerous idiots with “good intentions”   Permalink 4:20 PM – 15 May 2019

Wolfram, Thaler, Monsanto, Gabbard, Localism, SALARYPEOPLE, Acroparasite, RENT SEEKERS | Twitter

1) Never insult fallen entrepreneurs
2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game

— ThinkerView (@Thinker_View) May 1, 2019

@nntaleb Typos and explained the inequality Permalink 11:20 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb A familiar argument   Permalink 10:10 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb QUESTION This friend of mine is writing a blurb for Stephen Wolfram. Wolfram is a genius but that’s the least uncommon of his attributes. Are there other successful living scientists who are so fully independent that they do everything on their own terms? Permalink 9:38 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb One possible approach Permalink 5:34 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR. Since my name is on it, I am obligated to solve. Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb NUDGE SINISTER: How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous Verbalism. A project that will end up putting Nudgevillain @R_Thaler in his place. Filling in the math progressively. Permalink 5:16 AM – 15 May 2019

@nntaleb Note that Fleishman Hillard boasts “balancing 80% of interactions on Twitter”, which includes …this feed. Permalink 4:41 AM – 15 May 2019

@EnlivenmentNow See this thread for details on this clear attempt by French intelligence services to intimidate journalists revealing information about links between France and Saudi Arabia. Seems to follow on intelligence agreement between the 2 countries   CC: @nntaleb Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 May 2019

@mikeharrisNY Another interview of @nntaleb that must become mandatory course material in business schools. I will write something based on it from past experience about friends that lost nearly everything in previous market turmoil periods while the #IYI look at longer-term charts. $SPX   Permalink 12:55 PM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb It appears that the Nudgevillain Richard Thaler @r_thaler blocked @blackswanman.   Permalink 10:24 AM – 14 May 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @paulkrugman @R_Thaler #IYIs #expertproblem Permalink 6:49 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb INTERVIEW WITH ERIK SCHATZKER 1) Do not insult fallen entrepreneurs 2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game 3) The imperative of tail risk hedging 4) Make money at your job, not in the markets   Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Fleishman Hillard is under French government investigation in the Monsanto Roundup affair for having a “hit list” of people to discredit and smear. I was on their US list. My response to them. If you work for a lobbying firm, get out. Your job is unethical. Permalink 5:19 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Imagine if we locked up warmongers… This is why I am supporting @TulsiGabbard even if I disagree with here socio-economic orientation. Just via negativa: avoidance of war is of yuuuuuuuuuuge benefits.   Permalink 5:11 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the comments. The intro to @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition is complete. Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 May 2019

@GeertNoels Roundup is harmful for the environment and for your stock price… #monsanto #Bayer #Roundup @nntaleb Permalink 3:46 AM – 14 May 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto lost another case. I would love the chance to tear apart their epidemiological claims. Permalink 2:19 PM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Never complain about people, no matter how justified. Just drive them to complain about you. Permalink 1:33 PM – 13 May 2019

@financequant What can I say but that everyone needs to take this advice seriously. If it makes you uncomfortable or if you can’t seem to accept it, then you must consider that those feelings may arise precisely because you have exposed yourself to unacceptable levels of tail risk.   Permalink 1:19 PM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 8:37 AM – 13 May 2019

@black_swan_man   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @wef #Davos #IYIs ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:54 AM – 13 May 2019

@spyrosmakrid Thanks Nassim for your great Introduction. The Special Issue of the INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING devoted exclusively to the M4 Competition will be available in digital form in the middle of June and in printed form at the end of the summer. @nntaleb   Permalink 6:15 AM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Intro to @spyrosmakrid M4 competition Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 May 2019

@MaxAbrahms The US has a history of escalating against adversaries based on pretenses that turned out false. Pay attention to allegations of Iranian belligerence that are short on detail & walked back. This is one of the most critical functions of media it won’t do.   Permalink 2:41 AM – 13 May 2019

@nntaleb Plus add the ?000,000 dead foreigners… Yet nobody addressed the source of Wahabism that spread AFTER 2001 thanks to the US support across madrassahs. Or Obama’s support to AlQaeda in Syria. Etc., etc.   Permalink 3:00 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 10 (not 9) Permalink 2:46 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That IQ tests measure “intelligence”. They mostly measure 1) obedience, 2) the unintelligence of IQ psychologists/psychometricians.   Permalink 1:41 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 9 + That GMO (Genetic Modification) is “scientific”, that it is just “accelerated breeding”. It is scientism & not in the same class as breeding.   Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 8 + That Modern Portfolio Theory (Markowitz) is imperfect. It is not imperfect, it is wrong, in the sense that you are better off not using it than using it.   Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 May 2019

@john_f_hamer The opposite of a networker: a person who’s habitually nice to people who won’t be useful to him in the future. Permalink 7:11 AM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb If you need to post a screenshot to back-up your tweet (or aphorism), you’ve already lost the argument. Permalink 5:01 AM – 12 May 2019

@nntaleb This makes sense!   Permalink 4:20 PM – 11 May 2019

@jadabdala Heights of Canaan – Ehden under. Ampi, Chekka, Tripolis and the Mediterranean on the horizon. Bcharreh & Qodisha valley on my left. Arados on my right. Baal above. Permalink 8:22 AM – 11 May 2019

@nntaleb Ρωμιός εγώ γεννήθηκα, Ρωμιός θέμα να πεθάνω Permalink 5:12 AM – 11 May 2019

@nntaleb A rebirth of Hellenic identity among the North Syrian/North Lebanon “Rums” (My tribe). Permalink 5:11 AM – 11 May 2019

@normonics All things considered, wild release GMO poses much vaster uncertainty and therefore risk than does increase of CO2 Not to trivialize the latter, just a reasonable assessment given the additional complexity when the released agents are novel and historyless living organisms Permalink 6:06 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb Weapon makers used to rely on the naturally militaristic right for shilling. They got smarter and figured out it’s more effective to use the so-called “center-left” such as the NYT, CNN, the despicable Thomas Friedman, and the democratic party. Why is why we NEED @TulsiGabbard ! Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb To explain LOCALISM: On August 6, 1806, the Holy Roman Empire was abolished. Goethe noted that day that the people staying in the same inn as him were far more interested in the quarrel between their coachman and the innkeeper than in its demise. #Lindy Permalink 1:13 PM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb 2-Napoleon wrote (dictated) 10-30 letters a day; he was maximally into micromanagement. While emperor, on the campaign before Austerlitz, he wrote to the governor of Genoa asking him to stop taking his mistress to the opera because of a prostitution record. Yet he did think big! Permalink 11:31 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb This is to express my warm support to @TulsiGabbard as a noble democratic candidate and the bestfor Peace. Only she has the guts to stand up against the sinister militaristic lobby! #Tulsi2020 #SALT2019   Permalink 10:16 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/ while Mandeville, Smith, and complexity theory have shown that a good system is one that, by scale transformation, turns individual vice, biases, and quirks into collective virtue. Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb What socialists, academics, neocons, and other idiots share is the belief that it is the intentions, and not so much the results, that matter. Permalink 7:52 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb The Book Jacket Description   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 May 2019

@nntaleb J’ai été fiché par Fleishman Hillard.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 10 May 2019

@EconTalker My new animated video on how economists and journalists have distorted the evidence on growth and how it treats the poor and the middle class:   Permalink 2:54 PM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb For every successful entrepreneur you hear about on TV, there are 999 failed one eating canned sardines for dinner. Permalink 10:05 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 7) Probabilistically risk takers earn LESS than salarypeople, particularly when you consider CEOs as nonrisktakers acroparasites. Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb The Marxisto-Leftophrasts IYIs have lived under the narrative that employees are weak pple exploited by employers. Now we have robots, some made by robots. Why do they complain about the absence of exploitation? Permalink 7:02 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb 6) Socialists managed to drill in people’s heads the illusion that the money that pays for services is ultimately generated in Mars, that the industrial revolution was a British government project, & that … schoolteachers know anything about anything.   Permalink 6:09 AM – 9 May 2019

@nntaleb Where did the money come from? Transfers from Mars? We need to find a cure for financial illiteracy.   Permalink 5:57 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 5) Show me how a salaryperson can lose net money. Negative salary?   Permalink 4:43 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 4) With civil servants, what you see is what is there. With entrepreneurs, what you see is the subset of successful ones, not the entire cohort, which includes a huge majority of failures. Yet we need this risk-taking. Permalink 4:37 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 3) The CEO of the company is not the entrepreneur w/skin in the game, but often some acroparasite actor milking the system. Permalink 4:03 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb 2) And remember that it is risk takers and the mechanism of risk-taking that pulled more than a billion people out of poverty, not the design of some NGOer, civil servant, or some other acroparasite on a steady salary. Gabish? Permalink 3:03 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb A short quiz in memory of Alexander Bogomolny @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink 2:46 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb If there were no entrepreneurs and risk takers … (I am getting idiots commenting on salaries without thinking in higher order terms.) Permalink 1:58 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb ATTENTION SALARYPEOPLE Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income. Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb. Permalink 1:31 PM – 8 May 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio #OceanX #allweather #riskparity #riskyparity Permalink 12:09 PM – 8 May 2019

@nntaleb You don’t show on your tax return the losses of others. [Should I lose patience with NYT-induced financial illiteracy? ]   Permalink 11:06 AM – 8 May 2019

@PaulMMCooper Breathtaking aerial photography of the Roman ruins of Baalbek in Lebanon, by @rami_rizk. Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb This is to show @spyrosmakrid How someone’s small miscalibration in probability translate into miscalibration in forecasting the corresponding deviation. Something Phil-the-Rat Tetlock @Ptetlock has been trying to hide. Permalink 6:00 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb Medicine is for the very ill, never the healthy. In #Antifragile, there is the assertion that there has been practically NOTHING made by humans to “improve” on nature or help with shortcuts that did not end up harming with UNSEEN side effects. #HiddenRisk   Permalink 4:37 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb In Antifragile…   Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 May 2019

@nntaleb Getting close to finishing my paper for the very patient @spyrosmakrid showing why the “prediction” and “superforecaster” theories (@PTetlock-style) business is BS (but in polite words).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:48 AM – 7 May 2019

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb recommends buying six copies of this book, just in case you need to bribe someone   Permalink 3:07 PM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb Today is my 14th and last lecktshur for 2019. Back next Feb. Permalink 1:08 PM – 6 May 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic is yet again about #IQ for this I put the blame on @nntaleb, who sparked off my current “obsession” This strip was also inspired by @normonics and @paulportesi [defining intelligence, 1 of 2] For more visit   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 May 2019

@GregorySMcMurry People used to accept this up until recently   Permalink 7:22 AM – 6 May 2019

@antifragi7 If you wanna learn more about this idiotic fragilista read @nntaleb ‘s Antifragile.   Permalink 6:47 AM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb If you let people think that you’re a total a**hole, you’ll never have to be one. Permalink 4:14 AM – 6 May 2019

@nntaleb BYZANTINE REAL HISTORY: Debunking Myths about the Arab Invasion of the Levant[0]=68.ARCSTgFrFlpkQnvfzyoA6NGRetEXm_bbubp_ihAOyIpmLEBW_k3Y2OqmIXhLckOhy6gvNxJUEqtX7skC75VjIs6fsTsDSjShkxtkvWzn4BEg8kSAAzXs_oYORlvY9GdBNZQnjxQP-9Imzm5faVzED474SEjhpkgltYPhRom4_rkHctURNVWJg8KAo-xERehaaZrZfisnzirgxdKLE4nzXpKLEDPa0ALUeyJQItAXJVGF19PduJ7hIsmj9rR4cYbg89KpIHi7IC2h6qOIHbFQbp9P49w1GN04ukvSIjMIBSEmNGNIiPq-GKZ_MfVSlGOiLb7shVuiEtR4UyaVWCuKA0o&__tn__=-R   Permalink 2:55 PM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 12:22 PM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/ It is much easier for a criminal to fake being an honest person than for an honest person to fake being a criminal. Likewise it is easier for a fat-tailed distribution to fake being thin tailed than for a thin-tailed distributions to fake being fat tailed. Permalink 10:29 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb EXCELLENT QUESTION FROM A READER Permalink 10:25 AM – 5 May 2019

@_benoux_ Nice! Κρατοπαράσιτον. Κρατοπαρασιτικόν. Κρατοπαρασιτικός. Looks so natural it feels it already exists in greek. Permalink 9:55 AM – 5 May 2019

@AnarContrarian “The story of the nation-State is that of the concentration and magnification of human errors. Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility” -@nntaleb Permalink 9:37 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Fundamentally, the word shd be about parasites without #skininthegame Permalink 8:53 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Which is why tipping is dynamic not static!   Permalink 8:39 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb OK, July 30: Incerto Box Set   via @amazon Permalink 8:18 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb Parasitism is the clearest @JoshHochschild. We can alter it or find synonyms. We need @_benoux_’s Hellenicism. Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 May 2019

@bpaf was thinking about that passage the other day as it extends in the prophetic footnote cfr   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:24 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb We need a Graeco-Roman sounding name for “rent seeking” and “rent seekers”; something that one does not have to translate into French as “rent seeking” can be ambiguous.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 5 May 2019

@nntaleb 2/2 Being hated by the rentseeker is equivalent to being loved by the righteous. (A confirmation (here @WGoetzmann) I am doing something right.) Permalink 12:49 PM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb Actually, I can be mean. Very mean. With some. But angry? Rarely. 1/2   Permalink 12:44 PM – 4 May 2019

@jstarklefkowitz “In the classroom the ruler measures the table in the real world the table measures the ruler”. Sans skin in the game, critics opinions only tell you about the critics themselves never about the thing they are criticizing. Permalink 11:50 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb NAPOLEON THREAD, seen w/modern eyes. 1-Napoleon & the English talked past one another. Napoleon liked glory, administration, image, ideas, top-down nations, top-down code. The English liked commerce & wd have left him alone if he didn’t heavily tax their good for pass through. Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb 3) Easy to deconvert someone from State worship via Martin Luther’s argument that “God & clergy are different “tings””. Show them that bureaucrats-cronies-nudgeboys-virtue merchants & “State” aren’t the same “ting” & “the State is among us”. Keep the State distributed! #Localism Permalink 5:59 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t inequality, it’s RENT SEEKERS without skin in the game.   Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 May 2019

@nntaleb RENT SEEKERS We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers. Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it. #GiletJaunes Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 May 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Joe Rogan!!! I am also hopping on the Tulsi train. I thought I would never vote again… but she will save lives and not surround herself with neocon assholes.   Permalink 1:28 AM – 4 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #symmetry Permalink 12:43 AM – 4 May 2019

@mark_terlesky I’m a fmr journo. Hold a “MJ” fr UC Berkeley. I recently made @nntaleb ‘s above quote the lead pic to my alumnus profile. Hope I don’t get dis-owned by Cal’s SOJ. If I do, fine. I went on to making lots of $ in the law, HR, small biz, & on @Nadex. Thx @nntaleb for all you do!   Permalink 6:41 PM – 3 May 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 2 May 2019

@awells10000 Unequivocally my absolute favorite graphic. Of all time. EVER. Brilliance by @dhavalpanchal @nntaleb @financequant #realworldrisk #bonds #longvol #convexity Permalink 3:33 PM – 2 May 2019

@FattestFatTony Not knowin crapola is better than knowin alotta crapola… Permalink 3:25 PM – 2 May 2019

@TulsiGabbard Neocons/Neolibs & MSM all sing from the same songsheet: War war war!!! Trump never gets positive media unless he’s threatening war/carrying out military action. Today, Venezuela. Tomorrow, Iran? Cuba? Who’s next? No wonder NK won’t give up their nukes.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:00 AM – 2 May 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Fat Tony nails it again… with plenty of characters to spare   Permalink 2:45 AM – 2 May 2019

@nntaleb Great news: @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition replicates real life by evaluating Abs[forecast-out of sample realization], not probabilities in {0,1}. Replicates accuracy in getting real life payoffs. Will revise as there is verbalistic “forecasting” (a la @Ptetlock) and M4 price. Permalink 3:31 PM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb “If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more” [Bed of Procrustes]   Permalink 1:24 PM – 1 May 2019

@JeanDmello Most of us are non-violent, only because we are outsourcing our violence. Permalink 11:39 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Bayer’s stock is not higher on the news. The market knows the EPA is full of balloney; it is aware that Monsanto wrote too many EPA memos.   Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@Wolfram_Alpha Let’s kick off our anniversary with some cake! Can you figure this out? RT and reply with your answer. #WolframAlpha10 Permalink 10:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb The ability to read the Economist is the reason some people get poor. “The ability to digest milk may explain how Europe got rich”… The Economist Permalink 8:51 AM – 1 May 2019

@Thinker_View Permalink 8:30 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the resurrection with some #skininthegame   Permalink 6:19 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb MISSPECIFYING HAYEK: Prediction markets are not commercial markets. Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 May 2019

@justinowings A case study in unintended consequences with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects: 1950s: Killing mosquitoes in Borneo solved malaria problem but led to typhoid and collapsing roofs—by killing roaches, lizards, and cats, which helped caterpillars and rats.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:54 AM – 1 May 2019

@Thinker_View On vous aime ! Merci ! Permalink 4:49 AM – 1 May 2019

@nntaleb Presenting the paper in 5 min at the NY quant seminar and need a new title… Permalink 3:52 PM – 30 Apr 2019

@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”?   Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@ladyinmedicine Remember when twitter suspended my account for saying “the MB is a terrorist organization”?   Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@Jonassibony #Protosemitic *ḥimār ‘donkey’ #Akkadian imēru , #Ugaritic ḥimāru #Phoenician ḥmūr #Hebrew #Samaritan ‘émur ࠇࠌࠅࠓ #Tiberian ḥămōr חֲמוֹר #Aramaic #Syriac ḥmārā ܚܡܵܪܵܐ #Jewish ḥămārā חֲמָרָא #Arabic ḥimār حِمار #Sabaic ḥmr #asemiticwordaday Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Syrian refugees at ~ 25% of the pop. in Lebanon. Syria is now SAFE. But the US State Dept’s Satterfield opposes their repatriation as “it would legitimize Assad”. IYI Satterfield shd take some in his house. Shd Lebanese pay the price for HIS bone w/Assad? #SkinintheGame #Ethics Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Apr 2019

@digvijoy_c A concept @nntaleb dedicated his life to.   Permalink 9:47 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which title is better? A +One Does Not Eat Forecasts B +Where are the Great Forecasters’ Yachts? Permalink 7:04 PM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Now after the lamentations, the Great Doxology, bilingual by chanted by Greeks and Lebanese.   Permalink 8:14 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@NonMeek It’s so insightful that I had to draw a rare [for me] Sunday comic strip about it. Hopefully it does your piece justice … can’t help you with the math though ;-) (0, 1) ≠ (-∞, ∞), #LudicFallacy Permalink 8:06 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@kivil Ancient wisdom resonates with @nntaleb   Permalink 7:51 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 7 +That you need to be a good “forecaster” to perform well. In fact you may NEED to be a bad forecaster to survive, get rich, etc. +Probability is a nonseparable kernel inside an integral. Most of the psych lit is BS   Permalink 5:47 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 6 + Lebanese is a standalone Semitic language; it and Arabic are separate languages, not mutually understandable, no matter how much the “Arabistas” try to smoke you with pseudoscientific claims.   Permalink 5:34 AM – 29 Apr 2019

@LeesSebastian “Administrators everywhere on the planet, in all businesses and pursuits, and at all times in history, have been the plague.” – @nntaleb Re-reading SITG – This quote is fucking awesome, and rings very very true. Permalink 2:55 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Hanaia is Aramaic for “Abdallah” or “Ovadia” or “Theophilus” or “Amadeus”, no?   Permalink 1:50 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid   via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb FRIENDS, the first draft for comments. “One Does Not Eat Forecasts”: On the Difference between Forecasting and Real Life Payoffs @spyrosmakrid   via @academia Permalink 12:49 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE GOOD NEWS OF MACHINE LEARNING: How we can replace the verbalistic “prediction” (or, worse “belief”) with a more rigorous payoff function and how ReLu or call options can express ALL nonlinear payoffs (universal approximation theorem) Permalink 12:24 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@RichardHanania The university is now an institution run by and for administrators Permalink 12:05 PM – 28 Apr 2019

@aaronjmate 1/ If YouTube were to recommend your show, it’d be recommending the leading purveyor of now debunked Trump-Russia conspiracy theories, falsehoods & innuendo of the last 2+ years. Here’s a sample: Permalink 10:23 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How to commit statistical BS-vending and not realize it. Please keep journos out of “slopes” and “trends” (as well as other things) (The slope is a random variable with high variance)   Permalink 8:09 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 4:33 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@amaltaash (34/35) General Two gems from @nntaleb: -Never compare thin-tailed variables with fat-tailed ones: e.g. # of ppl dying in their bathtubs vs killed by terrorists per year. -IQ is a filter at the low end, to help figure out if someone has a learning/thinking disability. That’s it Permalink 2:12 AM – 28 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Guru, this is exactly my point about Fake News. Bottom up fake news is better than authoritarian top down fake news… Permalink 2:57 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile how Orthodox Christians in North Syria celebrate the resurrection:   Permalink 2:32 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SECOND DISCLAIMER: The victim was arrested at 16, beheaded at 21. Permalink 2:22 PM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And Saudi Barbaria beheaded a total of 37 people, one of whom was crucified. Permalink 10:54 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb DISCLAIMER: It appears that the picture comes from a different execution (perhaps ISIS, another Wahabi group). But Saudi Barbaria effectively executed a 16 y.o. Shiite by beheading. Permalink 10:06 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb A Shiite 16-Year-Old   Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Χριστός ἀνέστη! Permalink 6:35 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some have serious reading comprehension. The point is not that Obama did nothing scandalous. The point is that he was NOT caught or the media did not make a big deal. (Sorry, but I block idiots to avoid degrading the discussion. Nothing personal). Permalink 6:32 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama had no scandal, behaved w/dignity & extreme decorum. But -Increased centralization, bureaucratism, faught federalism -Crony capitalism, bankers > $$ than 2006 -Intrusive state w/evil nudgeboys Sunstein/Thaler, IYIs -Blew up Lybia, Syria, exterminated Syrian Christians…   Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb A book is summarizable degree n when the 2nd, 3rd,…, up the nth reading reveal things you did not get at the first reading. (A book is summarizable degree 0 when the first reading reveals nothing you didn’t get by not reading.) Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Apr 2019

@nntaleb AXION ESTIN! Good Friday Chants in Graeco-Arabic, the 3 Stasis. At 7:44 the Generation chant that ancestors have been reciting for almost 2 millennia, promising to pass on to the next generation.   via @YouTube Permalink 1:18 PM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb (Today is Orthodox Good Friday) Another Greco-Arabic chant from Lebanon   Permalink 11:27 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Megali Paraskevi in Greco-Arabic. Fairuz- Η ζωή εν τάφω   via @YouTube Permalink 10:17 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Which also explains why Mr @WGoetzman (a “finance” professor) has a severe technical flaw in almost all of his work involving tails & investor “belief”. Among other problems of course.   Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Bastiat #SeenAndUnseen Permalink 6:56 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@thackerpd .@Reuters editor @williamsmjw says he stands behind Kelland’s reporting, as does “Ethics Editor” @AlixFreedman This is a joke. @duffwilson @AmandaBecker @aterkel @cgseife @charlesornstein @CharlesPPierce @sfoucart @jackshafer @mlcalderone   Permalink 6:25 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie A happy accident this morning as @nntaleb shares a paper on the exact topic I’m staring at my screen thinking about. Permalink 6:08 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb You don’t see much of the snow from Beirut itself, you need to be >½ mile away from the Phoenician coast. Permalink 5:57 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Renamed the paper: “One Cannot Eat Forecasts”. New version. Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Religio as counter to superstitio   Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Apr 2019

@jeitoapp Bar in London that won “just about every award going” closes less than 1 year after. Where did I hear this before? #SkinInTheGame @nntaleb Permalink 10:49 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Circular reasoning is still reasoning. The inherent circularity of #IQ scores captured in a cartoon strip and a @nntaleb tweet [IQ correlates, part 3 of x]. #psychology #psychometrics Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Scientific papers should be written like car manuals. No prose, just precision. Showing psychologists have NO IDEA about “overestimation” of tail probabilities, (technical version of my lecktshur at the great @spyrosmakrid’s M4 competition). Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Beirut seen from the water. The Phoenician coast below Mount Lebanon. Permalink 8:26 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 Proves @nntaleb point. Large caps skewed to downside and small to the upside   Permalink 8:11 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our precautionary principle tried to show this possibility to GMO idiots who believe that science=scientism.   Permalink 4:24 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No kidding?   Permalink 1:37 AM – 25 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No butter! Permalink 5:45 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Two more days of Orthodox lent: vegan. Antonio Spadaro does wonders with the basic ingredients. Permalink 5:44 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@TarekMilleron Muilenburg’s denial of fault is hollow. Would he put his family on the “old” #737max, with randomly-selected 737-rated commercial pilots, bust off the relevant angle-of-attack sensor and take off? Repeat x10? No #skininthegame yet he subjected passengers and crew to that risk. Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@normonics This is enlightening. In fat-tailed domain conditional expectation is greater than conditional threshold K this drags one’s exposure even further into the tails, breaking the simplistic assumptions that provide pseudo-sophistication of recipe-users   Permalink 12:08 PM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb For example: why we humans do NOT overestimate small probabilities as stated in most cases. Permalink 5:49 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb What to study in college? What doesn’t bore you. (but the waist is still too thin)   Permalink 5:48 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #college #guidance #counselor Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@TheBondFreak @nntaleb, seems she’s getting it right.   Permalink 5:28 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists and Probability Why there is no “overestimation” of small probabilities (in most cases) and psychologists misunderstood the real distributions. PARANOIA pays! Permalink 5:05 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@InvestorSwedish @nntaleb thanks a million for your Incerto series! It’s been great for questioning much that I’ve previously been taking for granted – for investing, and life in general, too. Here’s my humble contribution to your paradigm-challenging series:   via @YouTube Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delenda Saudi Barbaria   Permalink 3:33 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@focusontheb This is one of @nntaleb’s points that seems hard for a lot of people (me too!) to grasp: if something works, it can’t really be considered dumb. “Oh Mike! You misspelled that word!” “Oh Mike! How do you get so much engagement?” Same person Permalink 2:38 AM – 24 Apr 2019

@Steve_Sailer In the Current Year, do any lectures on “Whiteness” not consist of racist hate speech? Perhaps the keynote address at a convention of laundry detergent chemists? @wmarybeard   Permalink 3:47 PM – 23 Apr 2019

Tetlock, Payoffs, Urbanism, Arbitrage, Estonia, IQ, LOCALISM, Assange, Psychology, Christakis, Belgrade, Nate Silver, Pinker, @AOC , Peterson | Twitter

@nntaleb 15 years ago, I went into psychology trying to figure out how humans misunderstand probability. All I figured out is how psychologists don’t understand probability. Permalink 9:39 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Our great ally…   Permalink 9:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More precise & accurate representation of the mistake; fixed typos. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaner @ptetlock’s (Phil the rat) mistake. [more precise] Science is hard Risk is hard. Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exact Distribution of different types of payoffs & their conflation in the verbalistic psychology literature. [ref to my bone with @Ptetlock and the forecasting gurus who live on a salary (nonprofit)] Permalink 6:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #reputation Permalink 12:15 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 4/4 understanding @nntaleb ‘s recent paper here is also critically important to understanding what can go wrong when you approximate financial markets with brownian motion:   Permalink 12:06 PM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Markers of aging: 1- You stop learning something new 2- You talk too much about aging 3- The things you forget aren’t the things you should be forgetting Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why I call @Ptetlock a rat. He SIGNED on this paper then renegged & stabbed me in the back WITHOUT even contacting me (to get forecasting contracts). Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Can someone ask @michaelshermer to explain the equations he is commenting on? Twitter is not generous with BS vendors.   Permalink 9:43 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am Christian. I live 11 miles from Salafis. I have skin in the game. And I tell you in past 10y Shiites paid a horrible price. Same during Ottoman era. Permalink 7:22 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Actually… Shiites! They paid the heaviest price. Salafis have been butchering them without much outcry.   Permalink 6:28 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@normonics To @nntaleb’s point: you can only learn from an academic how to be an academic Instead of conveying embodied knowhow from a place of deep understanding, an academic will formulate answers to “essay questions” and “explain his reasoning” in order to keep his GPA up   Permalink 6:01 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo: the integration is over any subset of A. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb At the center of my problem with Phil “the rat” Tetlock @Ptetlock is only a matter of…elementary calculus upon which EVERYTHING in his “forecasting” work is built. Elementary. Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@TalebQuotes Decline starts with the replacement of dreams with memories and ends with the replacement of memories with other memories. Permalink 10:42 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you define yourself as “localist”, nobody frames you in the “partisan” box; both the “left” & the “right” take you for one of them. The only people in favor of centralization are lobbyists, bureaucrats, & DC parasites. Yet the world is centralizing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:31 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Where I show situations (very common in real life) where you NEED to be a poor forecaster to do well in life and business, and vice versa. [Long proofs] (with Some comments on the “scholarship” of the dishonorable Phil “the rat” Tetlock @PTetlock) Permalink 3:44 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@sustain05 “Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today.” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:52 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@GOATProfessor Seeing Holy Week tweets about Jesus being persecuted by “White patriarchy” of the Roman Empire. That is false history and this piece from @nntaleb shows the problematic nature of that claim.   Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday for those who celebrate it today. Permalink 5:13 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb We should have a plan to eliminate Google.   Permalink 2:23 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@kpchand07 I would urge you to read about IQ as it is a discredited and pseudo-science technique. Many “studies” checking country level IQ’s use “proxy” tests to establish IQ. IQ itself is information-less. @nntaleb has written in this area:   Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE CARPENTER FALLACY In our Precautionary Paper we warn against using “experts” in biology to get tail risks of GMOs, even if they aren’t shills: just as a carpenter is not the one to use to compute probabilities of tail payoffs at a roulette table.   Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our current system (urbanism) is incapable of learning from its mistakes.   Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No! Rationality is more rigorous than shallow @R_Thaler BS   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Lébnéné (In Lebanese): Iza shéra3t l fehmén ana brba7 Iza shéra3t l finnas huwwé byerba7   Permalink 4:30 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@bWestenra “There is no such thing as ‘rationality’ of a belief, there is rationality of action.” – @nntaleb, via @rorysutherland 6/12 Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@dianadarke #NotreDame #Architecture #Europe #Syria Acknowledging Europe’s debt to earlier cultures – via a recent interview with @TheNationalUAE   Permalink 2:21 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 3:54 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is more technically, a RE-conversion. At least, the way converts themselves present it. And ironically it may be the result of and reaction to Wahabisms.   Permalink 7:03 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem of these Middleburry idiots is that by attacking and muzzling @CharlesMurray they made a hero out of a mountebank (and, as far as his report of my encounter with him, a bald-faced fabricator).   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama, many of the destroyed Syrian churches and monuments PRECEDE Notre Dame.   Permalink 2:32 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Arbitrage boundary Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@GregorySMcMurry According to the De Broglie–Bohm theory   Black Swan Man is correct. Any information that we could possibly obtain from the past wouldn’t help us because there are nonlocal hidden variables uniting our present & the past into one totality   Permalink 1:37 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Better have these just OK, plus friends/family, plus ability to sleep well, than be a hot shot, billionaire, or King. @VerginDen has is right.   Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Estonia.   Permalink 6:43 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #blackswanmobile #timetravel #flaneuring #AmorFati Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@ThomasGrava La vraie différence en politique n’est pas une gradation “droite” vs “gauche” mais plutôt “Grecque” vs “Romaine”. “Grecque” préférant la théorie à la pratique. “Romaine” préférant la pratique à la théorie. (Théorie de la ‘Décentralisation Fractale’ @nntaleb) Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Alas…   Permalink 8:13 AM – 17 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Ship of Theseus.   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY DU JOUR The information content of your tweet is a (very) nonlinear function of the probability a subject NOT being discussed, or the language used not being bland & common. Same for conversation. Same for everything. Especially business. Permalink 6:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #money Permalink 4:42 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 5 They don’t tell you that you are more likely + to learn a foreign language in a bar than in a classroom + to learn mathematics while trading than doing homework + that schoolteachers are a great model of what not to become when you grow up Permalink 2:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am surprised it is taking so long before someone finds in Hugo’s novel Notre Dame de Paris (The Hunchback of ND) a sentence that vaguely predicts yesterday’s fire. Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@FattestFatTony The pencil necks dont understand, @nntaleb is what the Jamaicans call a #Shotta… Likkle man, nah test nah #Shotta…   Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@StillmanMD Doctors aren’t just #fooledbyrandomness, they’re taken for a ride by lying #BigPharma! @normonics @nntaleb @trishankkarthik @FattestFatTony   Permalink 11:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 4 That debt helps growth & “innovation” (promoted by bankers) + Neither the Industrial Revolution (Brittain) nor the technological one (Silicon Valley) were financed by debt. + Debt is for wars, crony capitalism, bailing out friendly companies. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@EthanHBellamy Love this from @nntaleb. I’m the Chairman Mao of parenting. Permalink 8:03 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SCHOLARSHIPS FOR WOMEN ————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator.   Permalink 7:09 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In general, when people selfstyle themselves “entrepreneur”, “polymath”, or something of the sort, they’re not. Real entrepreneurs calls themselves “restaurant chain CEO”, “Ski equipment manufacturer”, “kidney imaging importer”… Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty,   Permalink 4:46 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@tripoli187 So what are you trying to imply? That northern euros can lay claim to Mediterranean & near eastern civilisations of ancient antiquity, when culturally & racially they were not the same people & played no role? Permalink 12:14 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@normonics “A paper should be written like a car manual not a f#*$in chapter in a romance novel” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:53 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Learning about #IQ by turning @nntaleb teachings into cartoons. Simplifying to under 50 words without losing any content is hard. I hope I nailed it [IQ correlates, part 1 of x]. #science #psychology Permalink 11:41 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Never pathologize (bounded) failure. Pathologize the refusal to try. Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t get that in real life one is not paid in frequency but in dollars. Fail frequently, stay convex. Learn to fail.   Permalink 11:09 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) Phil the Rat Tetlock @ptetlock would probability spread “criticism” by fortune tellers if he found any. Here is how fake the article is.   Permalink 9:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1) Academia is suicidal. In order to discredit me “Phil the rat” @Ptetlock (“repeatedly stab a friend in the back Phil tetlock”) spreads a linkbait written by a phantom “mathematician”, which he didn’t read (he didn’t realize there is NO fat tails in the discussion). Permalink 9:28 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point is that people who f***ck with you online don’t dare to do so offline. Permalink 9:22 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why is it that people are surprised to NOT find an ogre when they run into me offline? Permalink 9:15 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:10 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@holland_tom “#Naples is the most mysterious city in Europe, the only city of the ancient world which didn’t perish like Troy, Nineveh or Babylon. It’s the only city in the world which didn’t drown in the huge shipwreck of ancient civilization. Naples is a Pompei which was never buried.” Permalink 7:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 This is what @nntaleb has been saying   Permalink 6:42 PM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typos Permalink 8:57 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb MATHEMATICAL FINANCE DU JOUR A robust method for tail option pricing. Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@n_santama Last week, we had the great luck of visiting Baalbek/Heliopolis (Greek for “Sun City”), a city inhabited uninterruptedly for 8-9000 years! It is built in the Bekaa valley, between the (still snowy) spectacular Eastern & Western Mountain ranges of Lebanon 1/9… #Baalbek #Lebanon Permalink 1:08 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@MccluskyMark Super cool outcome of @nntaleb’s #rwri is the fun connections it’s led to, from complexity scientists like @normonics, rebel authors like @GuruAnaerobic, nocturnal philosophers like @trishankkarthik, market decoders like @mikeharrisNY and global oil magnates like @SeloSlav. Permalink 12:37 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And in Lucky Luke (a French cartoon), Averell Dalton is the most stupid. Permalink 9:19 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@AhsanDeliri I was wondering why @nntaleb is under so much noisy baseless attacks. Then it hit me. He studies the root of all fields in life. Risk under uncertainty. His works touch on medicine, politics, economics, business, health, nutrition, entrepreneurship, information theory. Permalink 8:39 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb INVERSE QUIZ DU JOUR Is there a mistake of exposition? Or it is my derivation that is wrong. Permalink 5:21 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated, implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@paulportesi Is it just me or is there an inordinate amount of noise directed at @nntaleb. It seems like record levels. Coming from every direction. He must be doing something right and striking a nerve. He’s agitating the enemy. Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@inlukka Light green shows the natural boundaries of the union. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ozmudurvekili dear mr taleb the newly elected secular mayor of izmir wants to establish a mediterranean union pls rt & show support   Permalink 11:29 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ggreenwald The only 2 times I can remember establishment liberals like @HillaryClinton and @SenSchumer uniting with and cheering Trump Admin is when (a) he bombed Syria and (b) they indicted Assange (Schumer also cheered moving embassy to Jerusalem). That says a lot about their values. Permalink 9:25 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The Ancient Egyptians represented females as light skinned, males as dark. Simply, sun exposure. [Met in NY] In 19tn C. Damascus, women were never exposed to the sun, with shielded inner gardens. To “stay white and avoid aging” (“la tdalla bayda w ma tja33éd”) Permalink 7:05 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 13) The National IQ/Skills regression. This charlatan, the researcher @GarettJones wants us to believe in *race=intelligence* but is not intelligent enough to hide from us the data points. You can draw a line of any slope into this. (cc:@EconTalker) Permalink 7:00 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@Brilliant_Ads True story Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@NateAFischer For years I’d seen @PeterRex do things that defied conventional wisdom but produced extraordinary results. In Antifragile @nntaleb helped me understand the rationale behind these actions.   Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 12) My latest details in the busting of “correlation” IQ-something. I noted that when I saw the graphs book by mountebank @CharlesMurray IQ is uninformative under nonlinearity. Permalink 5:48 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And if you need to refer to race, use the 3 ROBUST geographical designations: Caucasian (i.e. Western Eurasian), Subsaharan, East Asian, (not more than 4). “White” is indicative of purity, not race. Permalink 5:13 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The first time we used “ergodic” in connection with the Precautionary Principle was in an unpublished paper with Aaron Brown in 2013. Before we knew of @ole_b_peters. But we didn’t formulate the math then. Earlier, presented in Fooled by Randomness. cc:@yaneerbaryam @normonics Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb By “Nordicist” I mean Northern European supremacists. Permalink 4:40 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Don’t use “White Supremacist”. Use Nordicist. Please.   Permalink 4:34 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 11) David Becker is the source of the study: quite alarming handwaving with clueless statistics. In later papers they use “proxies” to obtain IQ. The author of the article is @JamesPsychol James Thompson, a nonacademic psychologic with SINISTER obsessions. Permalink 3:32 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is good news: people learning to take ergodicity into account for dynamics !!! Permalink 3:11 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Re: Roger Scruton. Why I no longer do interviews with UK journalists. Nobody should.   Permalink 6:16 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@Firsou This is the thinnest building in Beirut, Al-Ba3sa aka “The Grudge”. It’s two feet wide at minimum and was built by one brother who wanted to obstruct another’s view of the sea. Is there a place for building out of spite in the eternal way @normonics ? Permalink 4:18 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 10) One can raise IQ points by 2 STF just by training, so it can’t be genetic. PS- I’ve been getting 1000s of such messages since I’ve posted the IQ piece by Nordist supremacist trolls. Incidentally, my “co-ethnics” score high on the test. Permalink 12:22 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM One person to a life partner:”I deal w/ mundane matters: where to live, what to eat, where to educate the children, etc. You focus on centrally important ones: geopolitical relations, tensions w/Russia, future of technology…” Let the State do the *important* things… Permalink 11:16 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@ddelruss People need to stop with IQ – NNT has already very publicly shown why it should not be used.   Permalink 9:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 9) I am gently asking @zerohedge to retract that piece. Now. Permalink 7:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 6) Fail to get that growth is not driven by AVERAGE but by EXTREMES that depend on variance 7) Even if effect is as claimed, it is drowned into variance to make it usuable as immigration policy. 8) It is IMMORAL to emprison people in fake boxes!!! My PIECE   Permalink 7:15 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) ALL of these studies fail to account for cultural aspects of testing. 3) Main researcher @GarettJones doesn’t know what NOISE means. 4) Similar previous “research” did same for Irish, Southern Slavs, etc. who have now caught w/rest 5) A few data points can flip IQ/Performance! Permalink 7:12 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: 1/n @ZeroHedge published a post on “country IQ” meant to justify that some races are “genetically inferior”, hence bound to remain poor because of genetic defects. 1) The article was written by a charlatan, James Thompson using shoddy statistics (see my Medium piece)   Permalink 7:08 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@DineshDSouza Think of all the stuff we wouldn’t know without Assange. He was our media when we had no media to speak of. And we still don’t! Give the man a medal @wikileaks Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS ——————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator.   Permalink 5:47 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@derek_j_morris Confirmed it myself Permalink 5:42 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The interesting thing is that it took one single @Wolfram Mathematica command to prove *by theorem* that the 2000K article in @NautilusMag is fraudulent and the author an impostor. One single command.   Permalink 5:29 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb N7na zghar, w b3yun l a3adé kbar Hinné khashab 7awr, n7na lalkhashab minshar W7yét Zamzam wTiiba w l nabé l mkhtar Ma bnebné l deir illa min 7ajar 3akkar!   Permalink 4:01 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Today, they made Jullian Assange a martyr. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Study something old but not visibly useful (classics), something modern and useful (accounting, coding), never something new and not visibly useful. Permalink 8:25 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@42cohen @nntaleb Exactly. I’ve repeatedly tutored students who were struggling and, simply by updating their “software” and creating real-world motivation, achieved psychometrically implausible results. Huge variance above 100 IQ renders it useless + dangerous.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:11 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem with the IQ-race quacks like @StefanMolyneux is that their talking points are designed to deal w/humanities schoolteachers. So a quack with the intellect of a guacamole dip like Molyneux who can’t tell a correlation from a fountain pen is a spokesman for “science”. Permalink 4:09 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Mediterranean cultures actually have tall shaming. “homo lungus raro sapiens”, “tawil habil”, “Troppo lungo non fu mai buono”, “Uomo lungo, testa corta” etc. See Reich (2018) @Steve_Sailer The closer to old settled societies, the more tall shaming. Reverse in roaming hunters   Permalink 2:40 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The beauty of physics is that it can rigorously predict things nobody has seen before, before the emergence of any empirical evidence. Compare to fraudulent fields like psychology that overfit from naive “empirical evidence” to predict nothing.   Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Aramé kif ולי עמ נגאררב נכתב בלחרפ לאראמאי שו ביתלע מננא לשעלאי? Permalink 12:53 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Jarrabét éktob Llébnéné bl 3arabé. Ma 3am tmshé! Bl Latiné a7san bktir.   Permalink 12:43 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb هاللء ازا كتبنا بلحرف هيدا بيمشي امما ما بيمشي؟ كيف بنكتوب لé؟ ولo/ou? Permalink 12:32 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Finally!!!   Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@DrCirillo A little preview of the forthcoming paper on “violence” with @nntaleb. Permalink 10:41 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Excited to get the book of @NAChristakis as I am trying to go deeper into the notion of fractal (multiscale) localism & see what’s wrong w/my thesis: It isn’t individuals vs societies but fractal gradations, each w/specific dynamics, (contra the selfish gene philosophastering) Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2019 Things to do list!   Permalink 6:57 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer   via @academia Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating why you had to say it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:50 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@LieraMarco L’asimmetria nel trasferimento di rischi nella medicina. “Mi stai prescrivendo le statine perché mi fa bene o perché vuoi evitare che i miei eredi ti facciano causa?” E altri esempi. Problema molto americano e (ancora) poco italiano.   Permalink 4:48 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@normonics Both globalism AND nationalism are monolithic *absorbing* identities, smoothing over and homogenizing where there ought to be rich variety   Permalink 4:12 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@RandPaul A balanced federal budget isn’t a pie-in-the-sky dream or empty rhetoric. Once again, I am introducing a concrete plan that is achievable. Learn more here:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:50 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@MilenaRodban My fellow Americans, the tax preparation industry and its powerful lobby are abominations that continue to wield undue influence over our lives. We must unite against it.   Permalink 6:59 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@KendraSirak I’m getting excited for our session #AncientDNAinServiceofArchaeology to be held at #SAA2019. Looking forward to seeing many of our colleagues from both archaeology and genetics on Friday (4/12) from 1-5pm in 110 Galisteo (session 253) @JakobSedig Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@thackerpd Province gave $720K to fired chief medical officer Eilish Cleary   Radio-Canada took Health Department to court to make severance information public “When fired, Cleary was studying #glyphosate, a controversial herbicide used extensively in New Brunswick” Permalink 6:12 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@Monsantobuster Taleb’s is a peer-reviewed published paper. If it was “wrong”, why didn’t pseudomathematician Clayton (who has NO publications) write to journal? It is shameful that academics spread this smear campaign by Nate Silver ag. Taleb Paper here:   @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@ektrit I owe it to Taleb @nntaleb to understand that ethno-orthodoxy is basically Single God Paganism, you know, Christ helps only my people, not yours.   Permalink 4:57 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Paganism is decentralized theology.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:52 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The asymmetry comes from the fact that someone very very incompetent will be incompetent at everything. Someone competent at something may be domain specific. That raises correlation IQ-performance between .12 and .4 Permalink 6:48 PM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Did you read my paper, Mr Caroll to decide whether he knows anything about it? Permalink 11:23 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Tony, a year later. (Fellow trader Anthony Glickman, aka rabbi Ozer Glickman). “Life is long gamma”, he said.   Permalink 10:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid Nassim’s originality and insights always surprises me even when he makes a simple comment for a medical paper. @nntaleb   Permalink 10:02 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risks, a comment invited by @spyrosmakrid Permalink 8:56 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Visibly, people are now getting my point.   Permalink 7:22 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Humanities degrees are very valuable (w/o ideological professors), provided it is complemented with real world apprenticeships (accounting, etc.) . It is degrees in psychology and social “science” full of theories that are not just worthless but work in reverse.   Permalink 5:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IQ not even useful for clinical cases:∃ targeted tsts. A Serbian doctor who works w/dementia/Alzheimer reached out to say my IQ post was circulating in his circles (& psychologists hate it): Doctors use dementia-specific cues; nothing to do with IQ.   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More general case, the proportion Permalink 4:08 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point of adding dead people to your sample is to show the effect of the asymmetry: 1) it you hit someone on the head w/a hammer, he will be bad at everything (hence correlation), 2) there is no reverse equivalent. So IQ effects come from borderline clinical people. GAbish? Permalink 3:04 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@MacDBollinger Mr Taleb @nntaleb I must recommend you and your followers to watch Youtubechannel Swedish Investors excellent graphic summary of your books. Fantastik work! @InvestorSwedish   Permalink 2:31 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaned up on the plane home between twitter arguments. Permalink 4:30 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some analytics on the ride home from #LibertyCon19: IQ #RacePeddlersIgnorantofProbabilitySuchAsTheQuackPeterson don’t get the effect of the equivalent of adding dead people to your sample. Permalink 3:38 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ If you include 20% dead people in IQ tests, what will the minimum correlation IQ/performance be if the rest is random? #nonlinearity Permalink 12:45 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delta’s olive oil is olive oil. Air France’s is 65% seed oil. When you hire “managers” w/o the filtering of SITG, they cut corners (Boeing, Air France, paper quality for publishers) and save pennies. But the manager improved “profitability”. Like short tail options for a tick. Permalink 12:25 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 2/2 This passage, from Taleb’s The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tales especially comes to mind. I think 10 years ago I would have read and just moved on, now I’m finally starting to better understand the way of thinking this passage describes Permalink 8:56 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 1/2. I’m rereading When Genius Failed – probably for the 30th time – because I like to understand decision making under stress. As I read it this time I have a better understanding of how much I’ve learned from @nntaleb in the last decade Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is exactly what I presented at #LibertyCon19: Liberty applies to all scales. No entity (s.a. what this idiot is advocating) should ever impose a national identity on your group, regardless of whether you’re wrong abt your own history (& we’re not).   Permalink 7:57 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed modernity is stripping some people of their dignity.   Permalink 12:37 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed, Steve Stuart-Williams is a charlatan. He knows it because he keeps posting unrigorous cherrypicked IQ propaganda. These techniques are NOT predictive. Permalink 3:39 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@NachoOliveras Indeed. The presenter mentioned round-up (gliphosate) and GMOs as an example of anti-science scaremongers in his punchline. Just remember @nntaleb heuristic for any shill conflating the two on a public platform, works as magic!   Permalink 1:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@vacimovic Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb & Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan – lecture and conversation in Belgrade. #LibertyCon19 Permalink 12:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@pietercleppe .@nntaleb at #LibertyCon19 Belgrade: In its well-known cartoon, The @NewYorker conflates economists and bureaucrats with real experts, pilots, who have “skin in the game” Permalink 8:26 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@d_pavlovic Belgrade: @nntaleb and @BrankoMilan discuss risk, skin in the game, and income inequality. Permalink 8:24 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My cousin @GeorgeJNasr started a #Flaneuring hashtag. It should have strict rules: NOTHING TOURISTIC. A flaneur is the reverse tourist. See touristification in #Antifragile.   Permalink 6:29 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Debating @BrankoMilan in about 1 ½ hours   Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Tail Option Pricing Under Fat Tails — A deceivingly simple but yuuuuugely robust model. Where we show that the methods used to claim that “tail options are expensive” are highly unrigorous. Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. I have been debating Branko who holds DIAMETRICALLY opposed opinions because he is a scholar. Probability is technical and Silver is not a scholar. One does not debate BS vendors. Permalink 5:21 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Belgrade is full of charm & a great flaneuring city. Perfect size (`1m), some parts are renovated, others look like they have been forgotten by history, which makes them mysterious, real, and at times, gripping. Food is ⅓ Ottoman, People look 3/8 Ottoman Marvelous Permalink 3:47 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Thread by Dhruv who is the other researcher who got the same result I did. Unlike Bullshit Nate, he doesn’t have 3 mil twitter followers. Jut ~ 50. His paper is on the thread. He is more polite than me with Bullshit Nate, but same result. @EconTalker   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb @BrankoMilan’s school windows have mesh and lattices. Permalink 2:53 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Branko’s elementary school in the background. I observed that it looked like a jail. He wasn’t thrilled with my comment. Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ما جادلت عالمًا إلا غلبته, وما جادلت جاهلًا إلا غلبني Permalink 8:19 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@lkcashin Watching Bayer stock tumble is a thing of beauty. Monsanto is a cancer upon the earth. Biodiversity suffers in every region Monsanto stretches its dirty tentacles and GMF’s are an environmental time-bomb in the making. @nntaleb #fuckmonsanto #goorganic #Cancer #gm Permalink 7:50 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bullshit Nate, you can fool your audience, not professionals.   Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4-Competition using 100,000 series, comparing 61 F/cing methods was followed by the M4 F/cing Conference in NYC where its findings were presented Now a special issue of IJF with 33 papers on all aspects of M4 from top academics and practitioners from big tech firms @fotpetr Permalink 6:36 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb J2b haplogroup epicenter is Serbia. Permalink 6:34 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How Silver thinks he can bullshit us. Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Ase, I have attended 4 RWRI and discovered that most of the people that go understand AF “up to a point”… And get lost in theory. Practical AF needs to be a topic… obviously associated with complexity and risk. other topics: AI, entrepreneurship; localism, etc. Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Bureaucracy is a construction designed to maximize the distance between a decision-maker and the risks of the decision.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Mandelbrot #fractals #chaos Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 3 The “law of large numbers” almost never works for socioeconomic variables. See Chapters 6-8.   Permalink 8:58 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@GMWatch New Brunswick’s chief medical officer was working on a study on #glyphosate when she was suddenly put on leave and then fired. Dr. Cleary had already said that she and her staff concurred with the IARC finding that glyphosate was a probable carcinogen   Permalink 7:46 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Adriatic squid ink (risotto) Permalink 6:37 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My lectshur will be on localism and convexity. My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality.   Permalink 3:35 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19 Permalink 3:31 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@NeilNRockville I just got through that section of Antifragile, and it blew my mind that he predicted it so closely, then I looked back at it in retrospect and it was clear why it was so predictable… Permalink 5:45 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM: Why tribal links are important for survival & fail w/abstract universalism: you’d rather love your child w/intensity 1 & save her from drowning > love 1000 strangers each w/intensity .001 ALL Nonlinearities lead to convex effects #antifragility   Permalink 4:58 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 2 Semitic & Indo European languages appear to BOTH emerge from the same area in the Caucasus-Zagros-Anatolia, owing to proximity of agricultural vocabulary & similar original pop. genetics. Current linguistic categories are unrigorous. @Safaitic Permalink 3:21 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 1 That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables. It is very rarely so. Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict linearity… and its interpretation is nonlinear: 90% correlation >>> 80%. Permalink 3:17 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@kiwiandroiddev This article calls to mind @nntaleb’s Antifragile: “Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens – usually.”   Permalink 12:44 AM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Damn good. Permalink 11:03 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@holland_tom Huge thanks to @nntaleb for his kind words… #Dominion   Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And, BTW, the only enterprise that did fail more than “secular Arabism ” under a centralized state over the past century is perhaps the attempt to make a collection of pigs sing the Latin version of Te Deum in a syncronized way in a Gothic Cathedral. But not sure. Permalink 4:19 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb OVERT CLUELESSNESS These croissants are bought for ~$.40 to $.80. The markup comes from the monopoly given to the concession. @AOC is the logical empiricist’s nightmare.   Permalink 3:27 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb High time to make my decision public.   Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb There is no depth in Peterson. A modicum of insight wrapped in marketing BS, unrigorous psycholophastering (IQ, Big 5, 5 humors) masquerading as scholarship. In short, a quack.   Permalink 8:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Booked a table!   Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb These dumb fucks at @metmuseum were trying to illustrate their theories of “Middle East identity” showing a Hellenistic sarcophagus from Sidon with… Greek inscriptions on it. Permalink 5:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Since ~1100 BC Phoenicians (then “Lebanese”) have been the MOST MEDITERRANEAN of pples: look at food/behavior/looks. But since 1860 some low-Intellect Westerners (Arabists & founders of AUB, etc.) have decided de-Mediterraneanize (initially de-Ottomanize) to satisfy “identity” Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@trishankkarthik Everyone should drop what they’re doing, and read this paper right now Sometimes doctors have independently discovered special applications of this idea (e.g., ventilation machine), but it surprises me that they haven’t tried applying the same idea more generally (e.g., cancer)   Permalink 5:36 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 5:32 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1 /2 That is the idea of statistical distribution of harm #Antifragility /second order effects in Medicine.   Permalink 5:31 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IDENTITY MONGERS “Art and Identity in the Ancient Middle East” at @metmuseum: Edward Said-style identity mongers proceed to destroy the notion of cosmopolitan localism/Mediterraneanism of the Phoenicians. It shows the horrors of non-localist Nationalism. 1/n Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@VergilDen On this April 1st morning I’m reminded of that time years ago when @nntaleb & I were in Italy and we deadlifted, rented a Black Swan Lambo & tore up Rome. Then we drove up the coast to meet Umberto Eco at his Villa. We perused his antilibrary & ate squid ink pasta. Good times. Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@Gore_Burnelli One of the habits I’ve acquired from reading @nntaleb’s books is to always be skeptical whenever an academic declares a working system to be “backwards”, “medieval”. See for example Robert Sapolsky’s take on the American criminal justice system @ 23:18   Permalink 5:07 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:23 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher. Permalink 12:39 PM – 30 Mar 2019