## NNT Brazil, Russia 2019 | Youtube

Published on Sep 6, 2019
Nassim Taleb: “O Brasil é o país do futuro. Não precisa de boas pessoas, mas de um bom sistema.”
NNT audio only:

Published on Aug 26, 2019

The WorldSkills Conference 2019 started at important debate between Nassim Taleb and Dmitry Peskov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation on Digital and Technological Development and Director of the department «Young Professionals» of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives. The experts discussed about the risk-engineering and its benefits for creating better management tools and and building a strong competitive economy.
NNT audio only:

## Evolutionary Biologists, Ayn Rand, Dawkins, Quilettebeciles, Nate Silver, Mosquitos, Bolton, Pinker, Nudgeboy, Pencilwits, Brasil | Twitter

Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference.

Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence (Hattip Dave Lull)

@nntaleb We had DNA evidence that the ancient Egyptian ruling class came from the North. Socks-with-scandals places them somewhere around what is now Central Germany. https://twitter.com/rabihalameddine/status/1176247307341164544   Permalink 2:55 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) People have no problem getting Nietzsche, Le Bon, & other’s point that crowds composed of sane individuals can go crazy. It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals. Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) These simple comments by the 2 fellows destroy +5 decades of evolutionary psychology/biology, etc. I mean really shatter current methods. pic.twitter.com/Q6Opzp6XFF Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Please do not respond to my claim that “(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb” by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or “he says everybody but me is dumb”. Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc. You will then see the gravity. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1176190670433857536   Permalink 1:46 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Actually this is a chapter in #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/reC9hrJ8VD Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Do not mess with him. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1175888089367162880   Permalink 10:33 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I would tell him that he should feel lucky. Compare these to the worst possible nightmare: an association with Ayn Rand. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1176107964656234497   Permalink 10:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@MuserMarco His argument is basicallly that because of nonlinear effects the macro (group) cannot be explained by the micro (individual). A group is not just a bunch of individuals. Or in other words, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Permalink 8:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Caro Bret, This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs. Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 7:51 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Cheese Galettes with halloumi & kashkaval made by Syrians from Raqqa (Beirut highway). pic.twitter.com/HrwRVoEW0r Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@ProBucks_ “naive interventionism” proving detrimental in yet another complex system with long lasting unintended effects. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1175636181515718656   Permalink 10:36 PM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The art and science of drinking with Russians. pic.twitter.com/GIF8al4S8K Permalink 11:09 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vitello tonnato with squid ink. #OnlyinMoscow pic.twitter.com/EWz9zI60Sf Permalink 8:12 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@GeorgeJNasr #Pedophrasty: Argument involving #Children to prop up a rationalization, & make opponents look like assholes. Nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the #news. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B”>  pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Why is it wrong to be a “group selectionist”, @BretWeinstein ? You do not have to defend yourself ag. the BS vendor @sapinker. The 2 journalists Pinker & Dawkins have been barking/bullshitting w/o showing flaws in Nowak, Wilson et al. #Multiscale & aggregation. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1175592010662567936   Permalink 5:07 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don’t know it. Permalink 12:11 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great John Gray explains that Christianity is, basically, secular humanism. https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1174383075419197441   Permalink 9:15 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dawkins, as exected, another fake scholar. https://twitter.com/gheathwhyte/status/1175081067943997440   Permalink 7:47 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@RickyDelFuego Next phase begins when the kids start reading @nntaleb and realize the reason no one listens to the “educated” is because someone who collected $100,000 in debt to get a PhD in “empathy as communication” or whatever isn’t worth listening to. https://twitter.com/nicgaston/status/1175302556324651009 Permalink 7:14 AM – 21 Sep 2019 @spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1170627288947470336 https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1166321418432339969 Permalink 4:12 AM – 21 Sep 2019 @PaulSkallas ”If your private life conflicts with your intellectual opinion, it cancels your intellectual ideas, not your private life.” Permalink 5:53 PM – 20 Sep 2019 @nntaleb And “psychologist”. https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1175190661538226177 Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Sep 2019 @GuillermoBurr The results are so aberrant and childish that they remind me of Dr Malcolm in the movie Jurasic Park. When he is informed that all dinosaurs are female and that they cannot breed, he answers: life will find a way (sic) Permalink 4:46 PM – 20 Sep 2019 @Vasilis48814362 When I finished black swan, I felt good, but also in panic because I could not believe for once someone was right on pretty much everything. The smear articles online only worsened this panic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1175185309073625093 Permalink 4:27 PM – 20 Sep 2019 @holland_tom One is a work of Protestant theology. And one is by me! https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1175053970613706753?s=20 Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 Sep 2019 @nntalebbot “it is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @nntaleb The most convincing evidence that the psychology of happiness is total BS is to meet “happiness” “expert” psychologists in person. https://twitter.com/alexandersquats/status/1174719753283178496 Permalink 9:31 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @normonics looks like I’ve been using “moron” where I should have been using “imbecile” Nassim gets it right again Permalink 7:41 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @RobRastapop Of all writings I love only that which is written in blood. Nietzsche Not everything that happens, happens for a reason. But everything that survives, survives for a reason. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/M4l1VIZitz Permalink 6:04 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @fpingham Fractal localism means skin in the game and personal accountability @nntaleb https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/999927177259892738 Permalink 5:36 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @AssalehAmer The Bed of Procrustes, https://twitter.com/king4judge/status/1174507514358095873 Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @nntaleb A #Lindy drink. So is its (mild) hangover. Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @john_f_hamer “Just as dyed hair makes old men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0bJDJ3rLtS Permalink 4:12 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @themintmag “Every time I have questioned these methods I have been abruptly countered with: “they have the Nobel”, which I have found impossible to argue with.” – @nntaleb Hence the need for the #NotTheNobel. Econ is not a science. Vote for a fresh thinker today! https://lght.ly/g1dmja9 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO”> pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO Permalink 3:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @TalebWisdom “What they call philosophy I call literature; what they call literature I call journalism; what they call journalism I call gossip; and what they call gossip I call (generously) voyeurism.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2:13 AM – 19 Sep 2019 @sean_a_mcclure Many lack the scientific literacy needed to understand the IQ debate. I wrote this conceptual article to help those ill-equipped to form an educated opinion on a massively important topic. https://bit.ly/2m0JtAM @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik #science #psychology ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS”> pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Sep 2019 @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0sfzemUBsL Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Sep 2019 @nabilshadman @nntaleb said “Learning is rooted in repetition and convexity, meaning that the reading of a single text twice is more profitable than reading two different texts once.” Permalink 11:00 AM – 18 Sep 2019 @birdxi1988 Jus realize this is extremely important. Not only in psychology but also in finance. This debunked various kinds of CAPM related regression. Eg, Fama–MacBeth regression(for risk premium). Same situation as here: return(fat tail) is regressed over beta(thin). E(R^2) is zero! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1174231033514008576 Permalink 10:18 AM – 18 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Celebrating the Negroni’s 100th anniversary. (in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/GIf8rimtNf Permalink 8:53 AM – 18 Sep 2019 @willianadamczyk “Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsability”. @nntaleb , 2012 Permalink 8:02 AM – 18 Sep 2019 @kudra_1 “Pedophrasty,” coined by @nntaleb: Using children to “prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children.” https://twitter.com/jenniferm_q/status/1174308373526929408 Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Sep 2019 @JYuter I’m old enough to remember when people called for civility when someone died (and that’s assuming it’s true) https://twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1174098732905881601 Permalink 4:18 PM – 17 Sep 2019 @garyruskin U.S. Right to Know investigates big food and agrichemical companies. We expose what they want to hide. We stand up for our right to know what’s in our food. Please contribute today: https://www.patreon.com/usrtk Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Sep 2019 @venksaiyan Something @nntaleb has been saying for long. Theory often follows Invention. https://twitter.com/davidlayden/status/1173712393312059393 Permalink 1:25 AM – 17 Sep 2019 @sjourdan This new edition of #incerto is beautiful. @nntaleb rocks. pic.twitter.com/wTaZ16iHZh Permalink 10:21 PM – 16 Sep 2019 @exergiovanni I thought religion was irrational. Thanks to professor @nntaleb I changed my mind diametrically. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Sep 2019 @nntaleb This is not an “error”: this is genetics. Higher dimensions are really unpredictable. pic.twitter.com/1CqvZokuiz Permalink 3:25 PM – 16 Sep 2019 @TalebWisdom “I am never bothered by normal people; it is the bull***tter in the intellectual profession who bothers me.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:33 PM – 16 Sep 2019 @nntaleb People are brainwashed to not realize that so many “noble” pursuits (academia, service, anything where one is paid with “honors”) are zero-sum. And wealth pursuits, outside of rent seeking, aren’t zero-sum. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1173561683870179328 Permalink 12:42 PM – 16 Sep 2019 @nntalebbot “The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Joey Automata: you need the Quilettebeciles to keep posting complaints about you, not the reverse. Keep irritating them, don’t reply TO them. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1173195884236087296 Permalink 9:55 AM – 16 Sep 2019 @nntaleb There are other errors… the person who put the cheat sheet together is not familiar with probability. Permalink 8:17 AM – 16 Sep 2019 @nntaleb The “thinking like Nate Silver” part is a red flag. https://twitter.com/KirkDBorne/status/1173511271544586240 Permalink 8:13 AM – 16 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Vegan is Halal, not the opposite. Much more asymmetric that you think. https://twitter.com/naniiyer/status/1173567520860704769 Permalink 6:50 AM – 16 Sep 2019 @sustain05 pic.twitter.com/Np6mErhFuW Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 Sep 2019 @_benoux_ For those who still don’t get it. Let’s use an another example: @nntaleb published an excellent book, “SKIN IN THE GAME”. A figurative title consolidates a background in probability & statistics. He didn’t name it “Enlightened Reason & Science of Risks in Humanism” (Pinker-like). Permalink 5:36 AM – 16 Sep 2019 @TalebWisdom “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile Permalink 4:38 AM – 16 Sep 2019 @nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019 @nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019 @nntaleb This is the only compliment that counts, not that I actually agree with the designation “ash*” as a proxy for uncompromizing. https://twitter.com/squidbidness/status/1173310545748848641 Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Friends, we need 3 more applicants for women scholarships for RWRI 12 in New York Oct 24. http://www.realworldrisk.com Permalink 9:29 AM – 15 Sep 2019 @BLebnene L fasel l 20 min kteb Le Petit Prince bil Libnene bil 7arfen l 3arabe wil Letiine! Tarjamit @HsenAndil الفصل ال20 من كتاب Le Petit Prince باللبناني بالحرفين العربي واللاتيني! https://medium.com/bel-lebneene/l-fasel-l-20-l-miir-zzghiir-f58995d8d080 Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Sep 2019 @zkortbawy باللبناني”خَلّيك هَون Khallik Hawn” = “إبقى هنا Ibka Houna” بالعربي #بتحكي_لبناني_كتوب_لبناني @BLebnene Permalink 2:13 AM – 15 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Sample https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLQ0ryLOWik&feature=share Permalink 2:48 PM – 14 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Northern Lebanese, from Zgharta. https://twitter.com/manwithahammer/status/1172969296189894661 Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Sep 2019 @DrMichaelBonner For flexibility and clarity: Greek; For precision: a tie between Latin and Arabic; For sound: a tie between Syriac and Persian; For rhythm: Arabic; For intricacy: Sanskrit; For interesting texts: Greek, Aramaic, Syriac, and Armenian. For sheer mental exertion: Hieroglyphic! https://twitter.com/Bfklin/status/1172964937741869057 Permalink 1:13 PM – 14 Sep 2019 @nntaleb This guy is good. And he knows his stuff. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1172845055289245696 Permalink 12:03 PM – 14 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Of course, Bill Gates doesn’t get that neomania works with software with reversible errors, not with complex systems. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1172904846787301377?s=20 Permalink 9:18 AM – 14 Sep 2019 @Jaffer22915438 FWIW: Tulsi Gabbard had more traffic to her website during the Dem debate than any day since the last debate. Permalink 8:30 AM – 14 Sep 2019 @wrathofgnon We know that modern grains are far less nutritious than ancient grains. Turns out even our great-grand parents ate vegetables that were many times as nutritious as what we are eating today. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1172843628898578433 Permalink 8:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, “unforeseen outcomes”. When will IYIs learn that we don’t understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism? pic.twitter.com/YOAZcvKKav Permalink 6:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019 @nntaleb A reminder that neuroscience, psychology, etc. are NOT reliable, not citable, not useable for anything other than tenure & academic rent seeking. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/ Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/myKY0meoT6 Permalink 12:47 PM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR R^2 is expected to be 0 but in small samples it shows much higher value, here .98. Small is anything <10^8. (cont) pic.twitter.com/3EDMSvpbEB Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Sep 2019 @black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x”> pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x Permalink 12:41 PM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Didn’t we put this, @normonics, in our Precautionary Principle paper? Where did it go? pic.twitter.com/aQ1zF0Peki Permalink 11:20 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb You can’t industrialize, commoditize, & scale knowledge without destroying it at is core. Scholarship is fundamentally an artisanal-style pursuit. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @Contrepoints Face au terrorisme, les #neoconservateurs pensent pouvoir utiliser l’hégémonie politique, militaire et diplomatique pour façonner un monde à leur convenance. Pour @nntaleb, ils font trois erreurs constantes que @FredericMasCP nous explique. #Bolton #Trump https://www.contrepoints.org/2019/09/12/353340-donald-trump-limoge-john-bolton-un-revers-pour-les-neoconservateurs Permalink 11:06 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb From experience, I haven’t seen erudites inside academia (few exceptions). By erudition, I mean solid knowledge (ancient languages, history, mathematics, literature-but-not-literary-theories) & naturally exclude knowledge of crap & theories written since 1924 in social “science”. https://twitter.com/T_Libo/status/1172555372982390785 Permalink 10:17 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb The association “juzur lubnan” is doing great environmental work; but it is named using loan words from Arabic. Should be renamed “Shlush Lebnén”. #Localism #StandAgainstArabImperialism Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Neomania in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/berensjoshua/status/1172531835454152705 Permalink 8:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb The “naturalistic fallacy” is not a fallacy outside the moral domain. Gabish? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb I am scared of living in a society that doesn’t find it obvious that things perfected by nature over millions of years are scientifically speaking, safer than things made by some “scientists” in a lab. [Corrected] Statistically, the “large n” of nature makes it > scientific. https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/1139279122516054018 Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb No bureaucrats in peace discussions without some adult supervision. PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica #Blackswanman http://blackswanman.com/#lg=1&slide=41 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ”> pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ Permalink 5:12 AM – 13 Sep 2019 @nntaleb NEgotiation. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Sep 2019 @nntaleb This was predictive: Black Swan Man tells Trump to have NO bureaucrat involved in ANY peace negociation. No bureaucrat in anything other than record keeping/clerical stuff. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864 Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 Sep 2019 @black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT”> pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT Permalink 12:51 PM – 12 Sep 2019 @TheBobber Plant-based burgers may be “safe” but they are loaded with crap that Your Grandmother would not recognize and you would be wise (and healthier) to heed the advice of @nntaleb and avoid them. https://twitter.com/GastroHistory/status/1172214307636932608 Permalink 11:39 AM – 12 Sep 2019 @normonics The only honest scientific approach to a system as large and complex as the “climate” is one of acknowledging uncertainty, and proceeding with precaution https://fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf Permalink 6:13 AM – 12 Sep 2019 @normonics The incessant interventionism of @BillGates and his ilk is enabled by the pathological certainty generated by scientism https://twitter.com/argumentwinner/status/1171979948342546432 Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Sep 2019 @city_affairs “The intellectual yet idiot is subscribed to the New Yorker” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/DanielleRyanJ/status/1172109337738862592 Permalink 6:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019 @oskarth @nntaleb Squid ink in Venesia pic.twitter.com/93o0fEx5Ae Permalink 5:53 AM – 12 Sep 2019 @nntaleb 3rd is the Charm. This continues Cirillo & Taleb (2016, 2019), Clauset (2018) showing Pinker @sapinker statement on decline of wars is total BS. @BillGates shd read the scientific literature before peddling Pinker’s flawed journalistic book. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1171960638882467845 Permalink 5:06 AM – 12 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Good news: Jon Entine and the Genetics Literary Project are designed to intimidate and smear GMO skeptics. They kept spread articles on yours truly. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1172111865616490496 Permalink 5:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019 @financequant Got a big laugh in my class this afternoon. “In most sciences if reality and the model don’t match, then the model is deemed wrong. In economics that’s taken as evidence that there is something wrong with reality.” Thing is, I wasn’t trying to be funny. Permalink 5:24 PM – 11 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Excellent news. 40 years of sanctions… Enough unnecessary tensions. Had bureaucrats been involved, the 30 year war would have lasted 300 years. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1171812365576409088 Permalink 1:55 PM – 11 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Il faudrait le traduire en francais. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 1:32 PM – 11 Sep 2019 @nntaleb France is listening to the idea that IQ is largely a fraud. https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1171826033294741505 Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Sep 2019 @nntaleb A French essayist watched me during a twitter fight. pic.twitter.com/SAFf1rdMeO Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Sep 2019 @nntaleb In Brazil met a fellow who plants trees for paper; claimed the 000s trees he planted yuuugely help the environment. STATIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book they cut a tree. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book, they plant a tree for 5-15 years. Use paper! Similar to ergodicity. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Since @davidgraeber is a target of Quilletbeciles, here is some information about their intellectual standards. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1171507313045209088.html Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Sep 2019 @nntaleb I celebrate a certain class of events (Bolton’s demise, Pinker’s new BS) by drinking Советское шампанское, the only think left from the Soviet Union that still makes sense. Or rather, by taking a few celebratory sips then switching to vodka, arak, pastis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetskoye_Shampanskoye https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1171511489871536132 Permalink 4:41 PM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb In one word, you get Steven Pinker @sapinker and the Mickey Mouse version of Western thought. Never read anything about the enlightenment by anyone (1) insufficiently trained in Greek/Latin, (2) not familiar w/medieval thought, (3) not familiar with theology (comes with (2)) https://twitter.com/_benoux_/status/1171520517586636802 Permalink 1:37 PM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Another reminder that @charlesmurray is a fake scholar, without even going into his Bell Curve. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640 Permalink 1:15 PM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb There goes my diet! Forgot about this plan to have champaign on the day Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/Bardiaexe/status/1171490805283901440?s=20 Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb That’s the NYT. Trump not looking for regime change in Iran. pic.twitter.com/8HwaHJsI7d Permalink 11:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Thank you. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1171452881729228802 Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @NonMeek Transitivity of correlation abused. An #Offshorecomic strip idea sparked by @nntaleb #correlation #IQ #transitivity #SocialSciences For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE Buy my here https://buff.ly/2NQzbjY ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup”> pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb IQ does not PREDICT career success. Now that I have the data, found the R^2 close to 0. pic.twitter.com/NmZiaK22xN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: Better presented in a Log Log Plot. 15-25 dimensions exceed the computational capacity of the planet. DNA has 000s dimensions. pic.twitter.com/UpK4TW1Dkm Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @satyakatla What contrasts Taleb frm information theorists (ITs), IMHO, is that he does math mystical, finds physical significance, which I don’t see amongst my wireless (who does mechanically) and IT folks. I’ve had learned more math just by following Taleb than any coursework I had taken. Permalink 5:42 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Rates do not reflect probability but expectation: “recessions” can take many values. This is BS. Will add to the paper on the flaws in binarizing forecasts (cc:@spyrosmakrid ) https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1171392223595905024 Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: it always shows up. Here I illustrate it with norms. Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don’t work, etc. pic.twitter.com/DAR8M4bTFv Permalink 5:16 AM – 10 Sep 2019 @QuintusCurtius Great thread. See @nntaleb rip into this historically-inaccurate, agenda-driven depiction of St. Augustine, who was of either Punic (i.e., Phoenician) or Berber ancestry. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1166786776259878912 Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Sep 2019 @nntaleb 22 years of fighting for that simple point, everyone understands except social scientists, GMO shills, and ignorant risk peddlers . 22 years: How many fraudsters such as nudgeboy @r_thaler or Phil-the-rat Tetlock @PTetlock should we go through before we get that point? Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Sep 2019 @nntaleb From 1997 https://twitter.com/JerryCap/status/1171051074775654401 Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Voila The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3 pic.twitter.com/kY2A3MoFkI Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Added the tutorial on norms to the book (Chapter 3) to show what happens with higher moments of distributions. pic.twitter.com/yvxQaalInx Permalink 5:13 PM – 8 Sep 2019 @nntaleb David Blaine just tore a deck of cards in half —a real deck. pic.twitter.com/JL97MMuiY3 Permalink 3:00 PM – 8 Sep 2019 @nntaleb A lot of pencilwits didn’t get that it does not mean people always do things for money; it just means that those who are doing somthing “not for the money” don’t go out of their way to inform you of that fact. Blocked a bunch. Permalink 2:50 PM – 8 Sep 2019 @nntaleb When someone says “I am not doing it for the money” he (she) is doing it only for the money. Permalink 9:54 AM – 8 Sep 2019 @QustnEverything Over 10 years since the last recession—this is a reason to be cautious; not complacent. From @nntaleb “The Black Swan” pic.twitter.com/Kr86v3xZJC Permalink 9:30 AM – 8 Sep 2019 @nntaleb The most humiliating moment: had (a long) dinner afterwards with the 3 cousins who spoke no English. Tried babbling in Portuguese, with help from a few Negronis, two caipirinhas &, of course, wine. At the end one of them complimented me: “how come you speak Spanish?” Permalink 1:44 AM – 8 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Because μεράκι I see as “soul in the game” https://twitter.com/GreekEtymology/status/1170467531955609605?s=20 Permalink 3:51 PM – 7 Sep 2019 @nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Is there a connection between the Greek μεράκι , the Lebanese mara2, (meaning enjoying some activity for its own sake, not the Arabic مرق meaning chicken broth), and the Turkish Meraklı? If so, where is the root coming from? Permalink 12:48 PM – 7 Sep 2019 @EmersonSpartz It’s pure laziness to think procrastination is caused by laziness. “Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.” -@nntaleb Permalink 10:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Dunya guzeli https://twitter.com/ahmadzada_ulkar/status/1170239184029782017 Permalink 7:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference. pic.twitter.com/VgwkbXBZ9v Permalink 6:03 PM – 6 Sep 2019 @apas .@nntaleb-like vignette. pic.twitter.com/LOtKNASgk6 Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2019 @NavariniLorenzo Italian ambassador to Austria, Sergio Barbanti, is citing @nntaleb’s Black Swan for opening a seminar on diplomat Nigra in Vienna! I guess that the lindy effect is, slowly, working pic.twitter.com/7yUTE0zfQJ Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 Sep 2019 @DrGeneCallahan Over-optimizations: Sterilized kitchens Avoidance of all possible allergens with kids Weight machines that isolate a muscle Work schedules with no slack Economies with no downturns @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 6 Sep 2019 @nntaleb In all fairness from the 70s to the late 90s, NY was not good-but-crap, rather crap-but-great. Permalink 8:08 AM – 6 Sep 2019 @thackerpd 1 5 Switching gears: Brief lecture on how #Monsanto tracks and works to counter reporters such as @sfoucart @stephanehorel @tristanwaleckx @gaellombart Document shows #Monsanto strategy w/ help from PR firm @PublicisGroupe to counter #MonsantoPapers https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6382792-Monsanto-Response-to-LeMonde.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3″> pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3 Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019 @nntaleb In the “CRAP BUT GOOD” category, there is an expression about Paolo Maluf: “Maluf steals but delivers” as he kept being reelected in spite of accusations of corruption. Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI. https://twitter.com/JacopoBambino/status/1169927189128777728?s=20 Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Keep trying, blind idiots. https://twitter.com/techreview/status/1169921428969480192 Permalink 4:12 AM – 6 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Don’t judge a city by bureaucratic criteria like traffic jams, cleanliness, safety, etc., but by something deeper in the soul of the place. Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom.” (“NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good”) Permalink 3:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019 @nntaleb A lot of (tasty) meat in the Republica Federativa do Brasil. pic.twitter.com/eDBlIoLfg3 Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Churrasco Brasileiro pic.twitter.com/jhwLDIMiWv Permalink 9:23 AM – 5 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Correction: Sao Paolo is pronounced like the French “saon”. Permalink 6:28 AM – 5 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Sao Paulo Don’t be fooled by the orthography. “Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”. pic.twitter.com/iC48aBofAr Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Sidley Austin did nothing “illegal”. But smearing, targeting, mobbing, and lying are UNETHICAL practices. Unacceptable! Boycott/Blacklist Sidley Austin. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1169556720089214976 Permalink 3:31 AM – 5 Sep 2019 @adrianaleboss @BLebnene pic.twitter.com/H5mLTHRH6i Permalink 10:28 PM – 4 Sep 2019 @JoshHochschild This price is back. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156891266220773377 Permalink 7:50 PM – 4 Sep 2019 @Mangan150 Why is Vegetable Oil in EVERYTHING? | The History and Corruption Behind Processed Oils https://youtu.be/OGLwGOvvWeg Permalink 5:17 PM – 4 Sep 2019 @nntaleb If you have been employed by someone (Trump, Hillary, or Joey The Knife) as a personal assistant, it is yuugely unethical for you to ever divulge what you saw or heard in that capacity. (Except, of course, if you are subpoenaed, witnessed murder, were asked to commit a crime…) Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Sep 2019 @ishirubi It’s September now. Usually, habitually I still buy notebooks and pens for myself. This year it’s different. Grabbed the book for a second round, reading preface, chills chills chills. Looks like I forgot a lot since January. Here we go! #rereadincerto #FooledbyRandomness pic.twitter.com/6sGwFyqXZE Permalink 12:59 PM – 4 Sep 2019 @Prof_BearB Following in the footsteps of Cirillo and Taleb (2016) and Clauset (2018), I hasten to note :-) Thank you, and thanks for the shout-out! https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1169333423380541443 Permalink 12:39 PM – 4 Sep 2019 @nntaleb If these finance “academics” could predict they would not be academics. The only thing they know is how to become academics. https://twitter.com/financialtimes/status/1169227337449312257 Permalink 6:49 AM – 4 Sep 2019 @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/BjRG2tVnuO Permalink 2:54 AM – 4 Sep 2019 @nntaleb If you lose money, it can be bad luck. It you blow up, it is certainly incompetence. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 2:39 AM – 4 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Exactly. If you lose money, it can be bad luck. If you blow up, it is never bad luck. https://twitter.com/mightykaos41/status/1169061510339014656 Permalink 2:32 AM – 4 Sep 2019 ## Pedophrasty, BS Detection, IQ, White Supremacy, Weightlifting, Data Scientists, Behavioral Economics, SUNSTEIN, @TulsiGabbard, Plomin, Kazan, Matheux, Harari, Gelman, Quilletebeciles, Argentina @nntaleb A sample of the fights between instructors https://twitter.com/diomavro/status/1143888289763647488?s=21 Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Scholarships are open for the Oct 28 session, RWRI 12 http://Www.realworldrisk.com PS @VergilDen is an instructor. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/784063189457797120 Permalink 10:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @NClibbens @nntaleb Cost and time estimates overrun. Where I have I read about that problem? #incerto https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1168853263900467200 Permalink 10:07 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @thousandairefx @nntaleb Rent seekers! https://twitter.com/JakeVeigelMD/status/1168918972055609344 Permalink 9:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @vvv_ilya A few months ago I’ve been traveling to CH considering the opening of a Swiss company. At the airport, I started reading Skin in the Game by @nntaleb and in a few mins met Mr. Taleb! Why I’m telling this story now? Because I just got YouHodler SA registered! It was a sign pic.twitter.com/THuxzDcmyx Permalink 8:09 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @GuruAnaerobic Tony Blair is a psychopath. He’s a psychopath with no shame. He’s a psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy, lying, psychopath with no shame and no morals. https://twitter.com/JonnyGeller/status/1168543086756188160 Permalink 7:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @nntaleb 25 years of Calabrese lessons, ~ 15 lessons a year. pic.twitter.com/fTVZ6JyS9u Permalink 6:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Pedophrasty https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/JB_Goldstein/status/1168846225342435330 Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @noemie_issan J’adore quand @nntaleb insulte en français. Cela ne manque pas de sel “Con fini” est une de mes insules preferées, avec “imbécile heureux” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1168845474406785035 Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @nntaleb The great news from this is that Malaysia is a Sunni majority country. Extremely encouraging. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1168052854638206976 Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Can “Yes” in Lebanese (mbala) is come from the Yes in Persian (بله) than the negation in Semitic: (“بلا”=”without”)? Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb SITG is not just disincentives but, centrally, FILTERING. It bankrupts incompetent pple and remove them from the system so they stop harming others. https://twitter.com/BzhClair/status/1168541504710893568 Permalink 8:37 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Extreme Value Theory: How Pareto=> Fréchet, a simple demonstration. pic.twitter.com/zrkkykzL1z Permalink 7:20 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Meanwhile it is all probabilistic so far. The Anatolian hypothesis is just much stronger. pic.twitter.com/3scUh6NXln Permalink 5:50 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 15 That Indo European languages were born in the Eurasian Pontic-Caspian steppes/Northern Caucasus. Much higher possibility they were born in East-Med, Anatolia. pic.twitter.com/avls6ZtvNS Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb 4) The theory is that Aramaic entered Egypt with the Persians who used it as a lingua franca. But there were numerous pockets of Aramaic-writing Jews (hence other Levantines/Anatolians). But the DNA story makes everything else fragile! Permalink 4:17 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb 3) Something for master historical detective @Safaitic to help us with. Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb 2) Also further coincidences: that the DNA of the mummies is turning out to be Levantine/Anatolian, not Egyptian. And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian. Permalink 3:47 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Things I learned this year: There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic. I was wondering why Egyptian say “mayya” for water & other Levantinisms. pic.twitter.com/XYYcvIzaAD Permalink 3:16 AM – 2 Sep 2019 @nntaleb (“Zamat bi-risho” mush jéyé min rishé bass mnil seryéné “bi raso”, “rish”=ras.) Permalink 10:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Zamatna. Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Sep 2019 @rorysutherland The reason this ergodicity thing is useful to marketers is that it explains why they often feel lonely: the managerial-financial aggregated snapshot view of a business lies at 90-degrees to the customer’s experience of a business over time. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1167775571268554752 Permalink 1:55 AM – 1 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Second version pic.twitter.com/G6JZ6DaGKF Permalink 1:51 AM – 1 Sep 2019 @vtchakarova The DNC would rather lose than nominate Tulsi Gabbard. ‘Gabbard actually has skin-in-the-game. She fought for — and earned — everything she’s achieved.’ cc @nntaleb #SITG #TulsiGabbard https://spectator.us/dnc-lose-nominate-tulsi-gabbard/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW”> pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW Permalink 1:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Is there a nonBS education outside of STEM, say in the humanities? Yes, classical languages + Heb/Aramaic/Ar/Sanscrit. French used to select on skills in Latin, not just because of access to texts. It’s because to be really good at Latin one must have read of lot of #Lindy stuff. Permalink 2:26 PM – 31 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Corrected finally. Thanks friends for the detection! pic.twitter.com/syjpKhIc02 Permalink 1:22 PM – 31 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Most influential story, heard when I was a beginning trader: Big trader M runs into a junior in the bathroom. M:”Whatyoudoing today?” “Just bought this bond, Broker A recommended it” M kept shouting “But he’s a f** broker, a f** broker” & fired the trader while in the bathroom. Permalink 12:40 PM – 31 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The #1 skill set is BS detection. Jaffer @Jaffer22915438 fughodaboudit because it is very, very natural to him. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1167119565106614280 Permalink 12:09 PM – 31 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Another 2 mistakes: limits ->0 not 1. Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Oops. I changed symbols from \eta to \epsilon when I turned the page. Corrected pic.twitter.com/NFCepkfFbU Permalink 11:36 AM – 31 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Probability du jour: Why you can’t use regression with fat tails. Showing the biases in psychobullshit studies, among others. Added a section to my next book. For error correction. pic.twitter.com/T54cUxjj6v Permalink 11:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019 @TerrenceMaldick Reading indiscriminately > everything. Best @nntaleb advice ever is: fuck school, just go to a library and “freestyle read” to ur heart’s content. Why? Because reading pre-ordained books makes u only enjoy reading a LITTLE. Freestyle reading teaches u to LOVE reading. Amen Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Autocrat meant, initially, free. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1167726291430326272 Permalink 2:47 AM – 31 Aug 2019 @nntaleb New section in book: Thin Tails + Fat Tails = Fat Tails, no matter the ratios in the mixing. pic.twitter.com/S3YutONHJs Permalink 2:31 PM – 30 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Typo: they are power law distributed low exponent <2. It is easy to find massaging in the data. Permalink 1:37 PM – 30 Aug 2019 @NealPortenza @nntaleb of all the things you’ve taught me (fat tails, barbell distribution, risk etc), the one thing I remain most grateful for? Squid ink. Allora… pic.twitter.com/kfejEs7k7l Permalink 12:52 PM – 30 Aug 2019 @ggalexsava pic.twitter.com/z2FOmcOda9 Permalink 11:57 AM – 30 Aug 2019 @black_swan_man The accuracy of a forecast is measured only in profits. #blackswanman #theblackswanman @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @HillaryClinton #forecasterrors #elections pic.twitter.com/4xiVxiiHOC Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Apprenticeship: law was not really a university thing. You learn working with doers. #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/nhLa0fa6ie Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Rossy CDG. pic.twitter.com/GFTlqAVA3t Permalink 4:55 AM – 30 Aug 2019 @nntaleb In matters of politics (and love), “never” means “soon”. https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1167384624554749952 Permalink 4:33 AM – 30 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The Squared residuals reveal the Winsorizing. They are a power low but someone did something funny to the data. pic.twitter.com/cShdc0KfSD Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Aug 2019 @Raddish27 @nntaleb jealous much? #Croatia #ink #Vrbosca pic.twitter.com/OQ2TOogfrQ Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Aug 2019 @BLebnene W hode kamen al3aab kruute bil Libnene: Le3beh 3a Krouteh, Zello ma T2ello, Min El Ghoul (ssuwar min Multiverse, Hamra). pic.twitter.com/GxbCpj3Bnd Permalink 8:15 AM – 29 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Here we go again. The replication crisis is now hitting IQ studies… Used the same approach as I did with fakescholar @sapinker, under recommendation by @yaneerbaryam: first use THEIR own data, then proceed to uncovering theoretical flaws. pic.twitter.com/kQQ3EwFcxh Permalink 1:28 AM – 29 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I find it EXTREMELY racist and offensive to group all non Northern Europeans, or people from non EU members as a single group of “minorities”, where one can substitute for another. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575 Permalink 11:43 PM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Mystery solved. They “manufactured” IQ scores in the NLS79, from “correlation”. Data invalid, only acceptable one is WLS. pic.twitter.com/IrQz0Dtc3B Permalink 10:57 PM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb For those who (thankfully) don’t know what Jesuitic casuistry is, see below. (BTW my father and grandfather were educated by Jesuits; it has been my dream —for years — to find a Jesuit casuist for a good Twitter fight). pic.twitter.com/HCVSE4eM41 Permalink 1:51 PM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb “Send me a photo?” There was a time my childhood, when Jesuit priests had 1) erudition, 2) scholarship, 3) knew science &, most of all, 4) When they engaged in *jesuit* casuistry, they were VASTLY more refined in argument: simply, they weren’t THAT easy to catch. Permalink 1:38 PM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Fake! St Augustine was a Med. He looked no different from any Sicilian or Maltese. Africa meant “Southern (West) Med”. https://twitter.com/JamesMartinSJ/status/1166701067595407361 Permalink 11:56 AM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Finally, the IQ question is far, far too simple! Someone incompetent massaged the data at some National Bureau in Washington & psychologists have been using it because it is more favorable to the IQ case. The NLS data is fake. See the blue, compared to Gaussian & Orange (WLS) pic.twitter.com/tVvZ4O9EFD Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Wiki explains Mutual Information more accurately. Key: it works under NONLINEARITIES. And it is additive. And it is concrete in a betting sense. And it is … ergodic! (Enters the Kelly criterion). pic.twitter.com/mDTYxHlG4F Permalink 7:16 AM – 28 Aug 2019 @thackerpd Exclusive: #Monsanto used former top DOJ official involved in Epstein deal to quash felony case by @adamzagorin & @schwellenbach via @YahooNews https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-monsanto-used-former-doj-lawyer-involved-in-epstein-case-to-quash-felony-charges-090028623.html #Monsanto just can’t stay out of the news. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA”> pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA Permalink 6:08 AM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb >150 million “Europeans” are Meds. Meds are a different group. https://twitter.com/Philosophy_Net/status/1166677480305909760?s=20 Permalink 4:51 AM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The term “white supremacy” is a terrible misnomer; 1) white is indicative of purity not color & 2) does not map to what is called “white” (Caucasian/Western Eurasian) or light skinned (many Asians are light skinned), only to NorthWestern Europe. Best term as replacement: Permalink 4:25 AM – 28 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Also, from Zakorsky’s data, turns out that I was correct (in spite of blog posts by incompetent “data scientists”): Correlation is much lower for higher income. Actually not existent. pic.twitter.com/USGKIQHcDY Permalink 4:03 AM – 28 Aug 2019 @arrington “If your anger decreases with time, you did injustice; if it increases you suffered injustice” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:26 PM – 27 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Now entropy methods, Mutual Information, i.e. “how much does someone’s IQ tell you about his/her wealth or income?” or “how much more can you bet on Wealth knowing IQ or vice versa). Answer: “zero”. pic.twitter.com/aw5JeeDoXq Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Aug 2019 @nntaleb On the NY-Continent flight, only 6-7 h.: people eat dinner, then 4 hours later, are served breakfast “so they get strength”. You even have to request explicitly that they do NOT wake you up for breakfast. Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Aug 2019 @nntaleb #Antifragile https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1166093473910415360 Permalink 3:32 AM – 27 Aug 2019 @nntaleb In real weightlifting (no-machines), you largely work out your neural system. It requires yuuuge concentration to push a piece of metal over your head. & it is exhilarating, like a street fight. Low-intensity “routines” on gym treadmills dull your mind, turn you into an academic Permalink 2:30 AM – 27 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I am intolerant of BS vendors, even when they are right. And always tolerant of scholars, even when they are wrong. Permalink 1:35 AM – 27 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Looked at the NLS used by Zagorsky, thanks to Beyon Miloyan. Data is invalid, though results similar to ones from WLS. IQ is truncated, income is cooked up. People in Finance learn how to ferret out statistical cooking in <9 minutes of examination. pic.twitter.com/oRAYJM616p Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Aug 2019 @nntaleb And the jacknife shows my data is clean. pic.twitter.com/dScs8mKiat Permalink 4:01 PM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb And minutes later, Donaldo got into negotiation mode! https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1166007859064266755?s=20 Permalink 3:20 PM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019 @ahshoja Is @realDonaldTrump getting advice from @nntaleb or reading @nntalebbot? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864?s=21 Permalink 1:15 PM – 26 Aug 2019 @NonMeek .@otrasenda_AC @trishankkarthik @nntaleb @Vasilis48814362 Finally found the time to finish what I promised: “Oliver & Trishank vs Skinny IYI Zombies [#ZIYI].” My interpretation I hope you like it. pic.twitter.com/6ymiRNUxuG Permalink 9:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @TalebWisdom “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 9:36 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The best so far! Incentives for peace not tawk! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864 Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS #peace #Vienna #Iran #Hayek #Popper #Freud pic.twitter.com/E7WPHX4S83 Permalink 7:16 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Kamén la nfham 3a ba3dan: manna jéyin la n7ké bi shi illa l-lgha. Ma fi 3ila2a bi shghlé l téné (w ktbé). https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1165875395666874369 Permalink 6:12 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb (cont) Now thanks to raw data, I am uncovering something >> more sinister in IQ research. When the slope is + but R^2 is terrible they only show the slope. When R^2 is high but the slope is ~0, they show R^2. When both are bad, they truncate the data, which increases R^2. Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb (cont) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1165945723587895297?s=20 Permalink 5:22 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Just to confirm, the thread by a few IQ “data scientists” (who don’t understand R^2) nitpicking my piece is BS. All noise. https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1165925167798710272?s=20 Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb For those who think behavioral economics has been “helpful” (outside consulting fees), some news. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400?s=20 Permalink 3:49 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb To express the trade-off from iatrogenics in a simple heuristic: Take no medicine that does not make you live longer. #antifragile Permalink 3:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Status is zero-sum game. Money is not in free economies. https://twitter.com/naval/status/1165834035601362945 Permalink 12:46 AM – 26 Aug 2019 @MulusewGerb Our 3rd Scientific colloquium titled ‘Antifragile and health care system in Ethiopia’ will be held in October. The idea is based on seminal work of @nntaleb and our speaker will b @MillaAugestine. @Elias_Yesuf @LegeseDadi @ateklu72 #missitnot #antifragile #robustness Permalink 11:47 PM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Tabula rasa. Let us say someone zapped all books and papers published since 1900 in psychology. Everything. Would it carry the smallest negative impact on your life? Permalink 3:50 PM – 25 Aug 2019 @mikeandallie Today’s blog -> Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/ #math #mathchat Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntaleb SUNSTEIN, my model for the IYI, w/the rigor of an artichoke. Master BS busting applied statistician Andrew Gelman has been dunking on him. At the bottom, Sunstein believes research in psychology should be like a business franchise, to defend by all means. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/08/24/more-on-why-cass-sunstein-should-be-thanking-not-smearing-people-who-ask-for-replications/ Permalink 12:30 PM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntaleb 3)Jewish Aramaic:ambiguous שהד or הדס but no apparent link witness = martyr as in Greek. So must be a Christian tradition; supicion that Greek => Christian Aramaic, not reverse. Now entered Arabic شهيد via Syriac. Note “Kornet L Sawda” is corruption of Kornet Shhodé. pic.twitter.com/EDx7Opjx3b Permalink 12:21 PM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntalebbot “the best horses lose when they compete with slower ones, and win against better rivals.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntaleb 2) Same in Christian Aramaic: Shhoda=witness and martyr, from the Greek version. Looking for the Jewish/Babylonian Aramaic use. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1165690600504659970?s=20 Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Retranslated; “For the Egyptians, no one illiterate can be a witness”. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1165687785790926848 Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The statements: + > 95% of lethal diseases have a genetic etiology. + > 95% of deaths from disease are environmental. are not incompatible. @PZalloua explained that real world #SITG disciplines (Medicine) don’t take the works of “evolutionary”/DNA (pple a la Plomin) v. seriously. Permalink 10:24 AM – 25 Aug 2019 @mikeandallie Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/ #math #mathchat Permalink 8:08 AM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntaleb At the geneticist @PZalloua’s place in Marounistan. Not a single Byzantine church in the entire zone! Rumophobic but gorgeous scenery. pic.twitter.com/1peIVF9mzA Permalink 6:10 AM – 25 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The Fundamental Tail Asymmetry: an illustration using the drop in MERVAL, of how you can accept, never really reject fat tails unless you have some physical law bounding deviations. Adding to the book. [It is Popperian falsification applied to inference] pic.twitter.com/9vB1fTYrjL Permalink 3:55 PM – 24 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Usually, when I go after BS vendors on Twitter, they gain followers. Not here. Need a new BS-vending target both as public service & to make my journey between the republics of Tatarstan & Northern Phoenicia more entertaining. Any suggestion? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1165002900155850753 Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Aug 2019 @GaricMoran 1000 PHD’s in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD’s in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates! Permalink 5:13 PM – 23 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Orthodox church next to a mosque in Kazan’s Kremlin. pic.twitter.com/m5pY6CAo6e Permalink 9:48 AM – 23 Aug 2019 @nntaleb They are still looking for holes in my IQ is nonsense argument. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 8:34 AM – 23 Aug 2019 @nntaleb “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connections imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer. ” PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/evankirstel/status/1164575263293956096 Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2019 @bulat_abdrkhmnv @nntaleb посетил Казань и @WorldSkillsKZN и поделился своим видением взгляда в будущее pic.twitter.com/03i5qkkR5g Permalink 12:57 AM – 23 Aug 2019 @TimurShagivalee Wealth comes from technical skills, not from universities Благосостояние происходит из технических навыков, а не из университетов @nntaleb #WorldSkillsKazan2019 100%! pic.twitter.com/BybvnJDRMG Permalink 12:14 AM – 23 Aug 2019 @nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 22 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Olympiads of techné (vs epistemé): no BS real world skills vs college w/humanities lecktshurers. pic.twitter.com/TvKrafX5PH Permalink 11:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019 @nntaleb News from Kazan: Russians are opening a new university with an expiration date based on comment in #Antifragile. Starts in 2020, ends in 2035. May restart then under a new adaptive program. #worldskills https://2035.university Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Aug 2019 @TulsiGabbard “As president I’ll end the failed war on drugs, legalize marijuana, end cash bail, and ban private prisons and bring about real criminal justice reform. I’ll crack down on the overreaching intel agencies and big tech monopolies who threaten our civil liberties and free speech.” pic.twitter.com/oDMVxbmFbJ Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Aug 2019 @nntaleb By policy, if my BS detector makes me go after someone very hard, it is BECAUSE I know his/her work. For instance, I read everything from Pinker. Psychs are idiots. It is almost never the reverse. pic.twitter.com/Mt3glSucVO Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Looked at Plomin’s work. 1-Knows 0 abt correlation (misses on linearity, transitivity, etc.) 2-Knows 0 abt error propagation & dimensionality, basically multivariate probability. 3-Grossly overestimates heredity (via pairwise twin studies) 4-Doesn’t get IQ score !=intelligence https://twitter.com/WiringTheBrain/status/1164438700891213824 Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Aug 2019 @JoostvanderLeij You measure xG for 10K players, then count their goals scored. 2000 of them are dead. Dead players score 0 on xG and 0 on goals. The rest have the xG uncorrelated to the goals. What is the spurious correlation xG/goals? Answer: 37% Adapted from @nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ Permalink 1:23 AM – 22 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. Permalink 9:36 PM – 21 Aug 2019 @financequant Anyone who had attended the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI seminar led by @nntaleb et al. would already know this. The detailed example we give is a simple discrete recursion that reproduces the fractal structure of the human lung. 1/2 https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1164288469545316353 Permalink 3:18 PM – 21 Aug 2019 @nntaleb People aren’t getting my point. Nothing to do with causation. Correlation requires linearity, does’nt allow subsampling and is very nonlinear. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ Permalink 9:31 AM – 21 Aug 2019 @RandPaul IT SHOULD BE GETTING AUDITED @realDonaldTrump! https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164174364994080768 Permalink 8:28 AM – 21 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I am getting tired of pple lecturing me on “Italian” expressions. “Gabish” is to capisci what “gabagool” is to capicola, and “avangool” to … Permalink 8:23 AM – 21 Aug 2019 @Marvin_3 This has nothing to do with causation. Can you please stop making @nntaleb points for him, sounding like a PARROT. https://www.dropbox.com/s/18pjy7gmz0hl6q7/Correlation.pdf?dl=0 Permalink 6:39 AM – 21 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Ignore. The article has been generalized by eugenists to genetics & heritability. All it can scientifically confirm is the trivial notion that some people are betters than others given same practice in a specific environment. You can’t get to DNA without yuuuge BS. https://twitter.com/mcowartlaw/status/1164148720109268992 Permalink 5:30 AM – 21 Aug 2019 @nntaleb It is the fundamental metrics that social scientists don’t seem to get but talk abt like PARROTS. What is correlation? It’s the average of 2 normalized variables MULTIPLIED by one another. In some NARROW circumstances it expresses a statistical association. Which ones? Permalink 5:20 AM – 21 Aug 2019 @nntaleb How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous BS. Very dangerous. pic.twitter.com/nEXvAudTj1 Permalink 4:33 AM – 21 Aug 2019 @nntaleb India, please stay away from Cass Sunstein. He is the person behind my original IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) article. https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577 https://twitter.com/BMGFIndia/status/1164109205600526338 Permalink 4:15 AM – 21 Aug 2019 @EricRyderMorgan Didn’t expect to find trail running advocacy in Antifragile @nntaleb ! https://twitter.com/Choosing2Thrive/status/1164009447964008449 Permalink 8:03 PM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/vRBlp3Jua3 Permalink 3:06 PM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Friends, this is the first draft of my forward for Cippola’s Basic Laws of Stupidity. For comments. Thanks. pic.twitter.com/1QtL00EtoB Permalink 2:51 PM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Edit: 1830. Permalink 12:11 PM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb A Must! + Arithmetic didn’t initially develop for scientists, but for traders/accountants + Before 1930 Mathematics was about the real world. Then it got concerned with abstraction + Texts hide experiments in math leading to theorems. Ramanujan did experimental math. Even Euler. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1159131413511311361 Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb Permalink 9:31 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb 2030s? https://twitter.com/Decafquest/status/1163558762575273984 Permalink 8:51 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I spent my life hearing economists telling me “nothing new; we know about convexity”; then they write an rquation missing the fact that a function of an average can’t be an average of functions. Same with fat tails. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1163832062220148736 Permalink 8:20 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @buchmanster Oh cool another picture of a young @nntaleb from when he traded chicken futures https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1163551872457805825 Permalink 8:01 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @ara_anderson Today’s @mathonco research in progress is a double act from @mathoncbro @StroblMAR on The (anti-)fragility of adaptive therapy! Work inspired by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FPbAbhy7FE – at Vincent A. Stabile Research Building Permalink 7:15 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I went after Fannie-Mae in 2003 https://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/07/business/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html Permalink 5:52 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb (cont) I am much stronger than I was at 26. I know a lot more than I did at 26, after eliminating news, only #Lindy books. I speak more languages than I did at 26. I am more independent than I was at 26. but, mostly I made so many mistakes I have more scars than I had at 26. pic.twitter.com/kw1sraiM8p Permalink 5:50 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb ANTIFRAGILE https://www.parcodellavaldorcia.com/calendar-event/forme-nel-verde-2019-antifragile-inaugurazione-27-luglio/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S”> pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S Permalink 4:54 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Secrets of longevity: bad birth records. Les secrets des 5 régions championnes de la longévité https://w.lpnt.fr/2330574t Permalink 2:46 AM – 20 Aug 2019 @TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Taleb #yoga Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Long time ago, an option trader without facial hair, deadlifts & a twitter account. pic.twitter.com/T49rJLK0GT Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Simple 1D problem. Assume 25 siblings have a genetic predisposition to Type 2 diabetes. In a hunter gatherer envir, they will show no correlations w/r to diseases. Move them to Kansas city => high correlation, hence “genetic determinism”. Now think how this blows up in higher D. Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Aug 2019 @nntaleb (For the stickler:) matheux= “matheux mais pas mathematicien” Permalink 10:56 AM – 19 Aug 2019 @nabilshadman Plausible scenario in jobs without skin in the game. @nntaleb would probably agree. pic.twitter.com/jVKmVbcxMh Permalink 7:44 AM – 19 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Twin studies vastly overestimate heredity: they yield different results from field studies. Reason: they fail to get 2nd order effects & complex interactions, dominant under convexity. Plomin’s studies for IQ are even worse; yuuge flaws mathematically. https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-great-dna-data-deficit/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM”> pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM Permalink 5:59 AM – 19 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Scholar with #skininthegame https://twitter.com/moudhy/status/1163104799665139718 Permalink 5:40 AM – 19 Aug 2019 @nntaleb *going into more and more abstract objects.* Permalink 7:25 PM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb 3/ Real mathematicians are obsessed with abstraction, going into more and more abstract. “Matheux” like contact and feedback with the concrete. During the Soviet era, mathematicians were forced to prove *some* connection to things, how they were helping the building of the USSR Permalink 7:00 PM – 18 Aug 2019 @VergilDen “Bullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI Permalink 2:54 PM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075785890935513088?s=20 Permalink 2:48 PM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Make sure you read this twice. Explain the charlatanism in Plomin’s book. Some pple have know for years that higher dimensions cancel predictability (curse of dim). Now they are finally figuring it out in genetics and neuroscience. https://www.quantamagazine.org/new-turmoil-over-predicting-the-effects-of-genes-20190423/ Permalink 2:47 PM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb 2/ I learned from a long career in math finance to never hire mathematicians (PhD in math) to solve math problems or toy with actual equations. You get a better payoff with a “matheux” who studied (undergrad) electrical engineering in India, Russia, Lebanon, or Brazil. Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb 1/ The French have a distinction mathematician vs. “matheux”. + The mathematicia(e)n is like someone who composes music; doesn’t have to perform, be good w/instruments. Invents math. + The matheux is someone who plays an instrument; can be a virtuoso but doesn’t compose music. Permalink 1:45 PM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Real World Risk Institute We’re opening full and partial scholarships for #RWRI 12. October 28 in NYC. http://www.RealWorldRisk.com https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1163150438121824256 Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb For those who don’t get it: governance declines with scale. Some places more than others. The dream of a “strong nation” that plays geopolitics instead of focusing on law, to facilitate services & commerce is a Baathist disease. Permalink 7:06 AM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I block anyone who cites Harari as a reference for anything. Worse than Pinker. Gabish? Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR If you introduce unbiased noise in birth records, (keeping average life expectancy the same), you yuuuugely increase the number of fake centenarians. Why? Because the tail doesn’t care about the average as much as the imprecision! https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1 Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Michael Gove is correct. I was told that the movie is an excellent subtitute for the book. https://twitter.com/thinkdefence/status/1163065296745353222 Permalink 5:47 AM – 18 Aug 2019 @OtisManousakos I’m starting to empathise with @nntaleb in the vicious way he goes after people. Fuck niceties. The people who think fake meat will just get invented sans consequences are either naive ideologues or sociopaths who think it’s fun to tamper with this billions old ecosystem. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162857527358476289 Permalink 5:20 AM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb P-Hacking and the distribution of p-values, a 3 year old result still not understood by social “scientists”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0 Permalink 4:24 AM – 18 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Please stop the “correlation is not causation” mantra. It’s worse: correlation is not correlation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=60s Permalink 4:03 AM – 18 Aug 2019 @TulsiGabbard We’re at 162,648! Let’s surprise Tulsi when she gets back from National Guard active duty on August 26 by reaching 170,000! Let’s show her how much grassroots support there truly is for her and for her message of peace and prosperity for all! —TeamTulsi #TULSI2020 Permalink 4:51 PM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/3326461/88078?stw=2 Permalink 3:54 PM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity. Permalink 3:43 PM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb So many have sent me this tweet; here is my answer. Remember transfats? And another 0000s of these “obviously” safe thingies? I am really scared to live in a society in which people take @sapinker seriously. On anything. That’s all I have to say. pic.twitter.com/PBEs5vMVz6 Permalink 3:34 PM – 17 Aug 2019 @engler_j What a lovely and accurate summary of my work! by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IU6seSTtJa Permalink 2:27 PM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb My Principia Politica is not out yet. Yet its terminology is having some impact! pic.twitter.com/GMxlIGzxAl Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb This is what people don’t get: smaller states don’t have minorities and majority rules eradicating them. Too much 19th century thinking. Actually France wanted Germany to be fragmented in 1945; they thought a Federation would be “weak”. https://twitter.com/BaalTheGreat/status/1162703300141244416?s=20 Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Aug 2019 @DrGeneCallahan The Mule: Clint Eastwood becomes cartel’s top drug deliverer by following haphazard schedule. But new guy takes over and makes him follow exact route and timetable. Immediately caught! Over-optimization leads to disaster! @nntaleb Permalink 6:36 AM – 17 Aug 2019 @spyrosmakrid Dr. Sagner @MichaelSagnerMD and I are finalizing a paper on Uncertainty in Medicine, illustrated by the following two studies on treating mild HBP: One showing benefits and the other harm and a third discovering 396 medical reversals. How can lay people can deal with uncertainty? pic.twitter.com/QfwJpOSY25 Permalink 6:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Only #Localism works. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Ireland, Czeck Rep., Slovakia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Cyprus… People get along better as neighbors than as roommates. Time for Syrians to understand the large Nation-State with “grandeur” & prestige has failed them, destroyed minorities. Small is beautiful. Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb OK, incompetence wins over conspiracy. Always assume incompetence first. (There still may be some conspiracy.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/epstein-died-of-suicide-by-hanging-medical-examiner-says?srnd=premium Permalink 4:48 AM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Syria should understand the notion of cutting the cancer & consider some partition East/West (currently taboo). You cannot spend the next decades taking then retaking Jihadi areas. ما حدا قسم و ندم! @EHSANI22 https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/1162588630654869505 Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2019 @nntaleb When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1162213923673657351 Permalink 4:50 PM – 16 Aug 2019 @nntalebbot “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Aug 2019 @nntaleb And ignore statements about “math geniuses with High IQ”. 1- how many high IQ can do math? 2- Ramanujan, Groethendieck, Mandelbrot were horrrrrrrible at standardized tests… has a mystical link to math… Permalink 8:34 AM – 16 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Reread and you will find it. Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Aug 2019 @nntaleb A metric that ONLY detects “below average” will show 80% correlation with performance. (corrected typos) pic.twitter.com/5N0K0mCDpP Permalink 7:51 AM – 16 Aug 2019 @vtchakarova ‘Skin in the Game’ and ‘Fooled by Randomness’ by @nntaleb in Sofia, Bulgaria. pic.twitter.com/TKrYmnGtWq Permalink 7:50 AM – 16 Aug 2019 @nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A clearer presentation showing how a metric for disease can falsely masquerade as a metric for performance because “correlation” is not appropriate (and should NEVER be used) under nonlinearity. Something the Quillettebeciles don’t get. pic.twitter.com/whcdbdcO2M Permalink 7:39 AM – 16 Aug 2019 @garyruskin #Monsanto acts like it has a lot to hide. It had a 20-page #PR plan on how to “minimize impact of” and “minimize media coverage and publicity of” @careygillam’s book Whitewash, about Monsanto, #glyphosate and #Roundup. http://bit.ly/2Kz7oko Permalink 3:01 PM – 15 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Meanwhile I’ve blocked trolls on both sides. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1162112002271170560 Permalink 2:39 PM – 15 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Charles Murray is considered a Galileo of the racisticists, someone who provides scientific truths. He is just an intellectual fraud. These mistakes are on a SINGLE page in his book. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS”> pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS Permalink 1:56 PM – 15 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Andrew Gelman is the #1 BS buster in social science. https://twitter.com/Marvin_3/status/1162074581554872321 Permalink 12:03 PM – 15 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Review on Amazon. If you are going to be a BS vendor, make sure to not combine it with “race realism” and eugenics. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X Permalink 9:47 AM – 15 Aug 2019 @RyanHoliday “You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.” Nassim Taleb Permalink 8:00 AM – 15 Aug 2019 @nntaleb You are wasting time arguing about universal computation/Touring machines with the Quilletebeciles neonazis who interpretet as a blank slate argument. The Quilettebeciles don’t even get that you may bolster their argument since in practice there is a yuuge diff betw processors! Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Ignore journos: they can’t property scale moves, put them in perspective. The SP500 is still up >12% on the year. #SkinintheGame: Have to reveal I’ve been short HLF for more than a year. Fear of missing an opportunity, just in case Ackman turns out to be ultimately right. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Aug 2019 @ArtOrthodox Dormition of the Theotokos #DormitionoftheTheotokos #JesusChrist #Theotokos #MotherofGod #Saints #byzantineorthodoxart #byzantine #icons #paintings #art #history #artwork #artworks pic.twitter.com/4npa1czwc7 Permalink 4:19 AM – 15 Aug 2019 @byzantinepower Aspirations of this account: – To extol the spiritual power of Orthodoxy & our ability to create Byz 2.0 Tendencies: – Venice bashing – HRE bashing – mocking idiots – foodpoasting Permalink 3:41 AM – 15 Aug 2019 @nntalebbot “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 14 Aug 2019 @sf_LPSP You misunderstand and underestimate Taleb if you think this is any kind of outlierish or burdensome “axe to grind”, or even particularly personal. Taleb’s bread and butter- or rather olive oil- is lopping down logs of bullshit, and the axe is sharp for all comers. Permalink 4:09 PM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Very safe: I stopped in 2010 having dinners with social scientists. https://twitter.com/profmarkreed/status/1161638008837279745 Permalink 1:54 PM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb 2) You can be fooled by people, and you can be fooled by fields. For instance I was fooled by behavioral economics… pic.twitter.com/Fuh5od8bjB Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Why universality trumps IQ by @trishankkarthik https://link.medium.com/qi3xFAYD4Y Permalink 10:57 AM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Classifying psychology as “science” reminds me of the Reagan Administration’s classification of Ketchup in school cafeterias as “vegetable”. We need to declassify. Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Asymmetry of BS detector: Friends, there have been many situations where I thought someone was solid, then realized I was mistaken as he turned out to be a bullshitter (e.g. NateS,PT,SP…) Can’t find reverse mistake: pple I thought were bullshitters but turned out to be solid. Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”> pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”> pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Anyone saying 17 sigmas about Argentina has a problem. pic.twitter.com/n8EryQDePU Permalink 3:17 AM – 14 Aug 2019 @OtisManousakos And basically read everything from @nntaleb – His sometimes excessive hostility toward obnoxious academia aside, it’s hard for me to disparage him as he reminds me of every fucking Greek uncle I loved. When that phenotype smells bullshit, they tend to be brutal…and hilarious. Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Dear @WolframResearch, what’s the symbol for the MERVAL? Trying to get data …for obvious reasons. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/XqCpKfLkkR Permalink 1:51 PM – 13 Aug 2019 @gmax1mum Am I the only one that wants a full volume expansion of this section of Skin in the Game? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Gg9LjHi9NS Permalink 1:39 PM – 13 Aug 2019 @nntaleb You should prevent Classic Liberalism from being exploited by the eugenists-“race realists” using it from cover for the Sinister agenda, particularly when they use science. Expurgate. Be tough. Liberty doesn’t entail genetic ranking. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1161283291137368064 Permalink 9:32 AM – 13 Aug 2019 @Firefly_fan Evolution of “Incerto” by @nntaleb (image 1 and 2). Some “affective” anecdote: the smell of black & golden version is very appealling for my hedonic perspective. It seems alive pic.twitter.com/pEB4vwMDTv Permalink 9:26 AM – 13 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Erudition is whatever is not academic in its acquisition and dispensation. In other words, lively, playful, useful, and nonnerdy. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1161290791991611392 Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Aug 2019 @ektrit Explaining how Christianity spread when 99.9% of people were illiterate, it comes to mind that Taleb @nntaleb cannot be understood unless Erudition is understood. Permalink 7:57 AM – 13 Aug 2019 @nntaleb What does a “(basic) law” mean in economics? Some “laws” seem to be empirical, others normative, some deduced from some arbitrary “principle”, a few pulled out of a hat. Permalink 7:06 AM – 13 Aug 2019 @thebigboulard Via Negativa et Antifragile appliqués à l’IT et à la Transformation digitale http://bit.ly/31KGMD1 via @lemagit @philipducellier @nntaleb Permalink 2:55 AM – 13 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Things are spiraling downward much, much faster than I thought. (This deleted tweet by Lehman Brothers was verified on Google cache; I thought it was a spoof). Next target? Some monstrous BS vending outfit I haven’t targeted yet. pic.twitter.com/OpWkJWAfeX Permalink 6:28 PM – 12 Aug 2019 @normonics No. Life is not a game. A game has explicit rules, constraints, win-states. Life does not. At best, implicit ones, but even then not static, not a given. The IQ obsessed have mistaken their little contrived game world with big messy reality. https://twitter.com/garettjones/status/1161047922793828352 Permalink 4:01 PM – 12 Aug 2019 @MKM_Abdul Meanwhile, a Black Swan quietly landed on Argentina’s stock market with a 48% one-day drop. https://twitter.com/business/status/1161010919008288769 Permalink 2:29 PM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Voila! Merci bien. pic.twitter.com/FpJv1WWhE9 Permalink 12:35 PM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Cipolla’s def. + stupid: someone who inflicts costs on others while not bringing benefits to himself/herself, even possibly incurring great costs. + bandit: inflicts costs on others but at some benefits to himself/herself. The stupid is vaaaaastly more dangerous than the bandit. Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/economie/les-etats-unis-doivent-adapter-leur-dispositif-antitrust-aux-geants-d-internet-20190811 (Je n’arrive pas a acheter l’article) Permalink 11:48 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb There are always some subtle differences between a book and the corresponding film, owing to the requirements of the medium. https://twitter.com/IMAO_/status/1160658967825178624 Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb In other words: Cipolla’s 2nd Law: there is a ratio \sigma of stupid people, in all professions/groups/periods. My Q: is it like econ. inequality, same ratio, but different people? If you came back in 10 y, \sigma has new people (i.e ergodic). Does the stupid survive in group? Permalink 10:22 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Cipolla Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Writing a foreword to The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by Cippola: You always underestimate for any time/profession # of incompetent pple. Law: No matter how incompetent an editor is, there will be a pool of readers even more stupid who won’t notice. Q: is stupidity ergodic? https://twitter.com/sobu_18/status/1160946236767264768 Permalink 9:56 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @DonkeyJawPosse Walking via ⁦@nntaleb⁩ pic.twitter.com/dB5VuKgx9n Permalink 6:08 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb You hit on something: collective intelligence (groups) is orthogonal to individual ones because of scale transformation. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @MarekADochnal @nntaleb never disappoints in fighting BS in its every living form. But even he isn’t iPhone-proof: see Murrat in his twit: the hybrid of Murray and Marshal Murat, King of Naples Permalink 4:21 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Murray also manages to BS about mathematics. A scholar! pic.twitter.com/loJG4ctyym Permalink 3:50 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Methods of the loci. If you want to remember math stuff, carry a durable physical notebook with standard theorems/graphs. You will associate the equation with a physical page. Permalink 3:07 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb There is a book by the Russian psychologist Luria about a prodigy who could remember tons. He mentally used maps 2D ->3D where each object to remember would be placed. When I look at a physical book in my library, I remember the contents! Even more when I hold it in my hands. Permalink 2:43 AM – 12 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Harder to remember stuff read on a screen. Needs 1 more dimension. https://twitter.com/jangold_/status/1160836414797492224 Permalink 2:23 AM – 12 Aug 2019 ## Murray, Psychology, Quillette, Jesuits, Monsanto, Peterson, Harris, Silver, IQ Eugenics, Wahabis, Tulsi, Lehmann | Twitter @nntaleb Nordic supremacy or North Atlantic supremacy (i.e. Northen Europe). Not Western. They don’t have monopoly of the “West”. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1160600695072010241 Permalink 3:21 PM – 11 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Note: I do not disrespect psychologists because I don’t know their works. It is precisely BECAUSE I read their crap. Between 2002 and 2005½ I read >200 psychology books and took notes. (Here 3 books by Pinker @sapinker who claims I didn’t read his junk) pic.twitter.com/EH1VNTZgU4 Permalink 3:18 PM – 11 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The problem isn’t that the Quillette pple are very, very incompetent. The problem is that the fans and followers are also very, very stupid. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160558238309462016 Permalink 7:35 AM – 11 Aug 2019 @nntaleb So many claims are so viciously false… Babylonians, Chinese, and Indians had explicit logical systems. pic.twitter.com/68WMKDjOzz Permalink 5:52 AM – 11 Aug 2019 @nntaleb عيد مبارك Permalink 5:40 AM – 11 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I will definitely pay @joelwatsonfish to nitpick my manuscripts for mistakes (fellow has been trying to take revenge for Quillette). Payoff is yuuge if 1 in 10 of his mistakes turns out to actually be mistake. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ https://twitter.com/joelwatsonfish/status/1159941673591459841 Permalink 5:25 AM – 11 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Eid Mubarak to all. Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire. Constantinople continued the Roman empire. Same usurpation with the EU. https://twitter.com/byzbastard/status/1160273117337587713?s=21 Permalink 2:12 PM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Whether the list was drawn by geography or ethnity, 15-18 mistakes. Murray is as ignorant in the humanities as he is in statistics. Permalink 2:04 PM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb My father once told me: “Never antagonize Jesuits; their erudition is so wide and so deep they know things you’ll never suspect they know.” Permalink 11:42 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb More mistakes (total 18): Zeno of Elea was from Campania, S. of Naples. I am embarrassed I did not detect it at first reading. Permalink 11:30 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Further, a classical Greek would be furious to become part of this “West” to give a pedigree to Mountebank Murray’s ancestors & justify their “genetics” theories. Greeks were Meds, first and last and closer to Persia/Mesopotamia where the action was. Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Averroes, like Maimonides was born in Cordoba. Try to call him “Spanish”, Westerner! Some elementary mistakes anyone with intellect would detect: Philo Judaeus ‘The Jew” would be… Greek? Permalink 11:17 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I debated Murrat and noted that for a “historian” he was woefully lacking in erudition. His definition of the “West” = whatever became successful. He didn’t read r Greek & misunderstood Herodotus. Was told to take it easy on him bec. “libertarian” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079549079099768832?s=20 Permalink 11:00 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Mountebank race monger Charles Murray @charlesmurray has a list of “Human Accomplishments” by “Westerners” He has 15 mistakes on a single page! Tertullian was Berber Saadia was Bagdadi/Egyptian AlKindi was Arabian Poseidonius was Syrian Mani was Persian Porphyrius Phoenician pic.twitter.com/rSisK6SeQ4 Permalink 10:49 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I prefer the company of people who make me smile to those who make me laugh. Permalink 9:12 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb OK, OK. Conspiracy perhaps. But never never underestimate incompetence. Permalink 7:14 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Never assume conspiracy when the vastly more obvious explanation should be incompetence. https://twitter.com/BrittPettibone/status/1160182637862014976 Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The “Harvard Prof” has, statistically, < 25% chance of being right (less since Harvard profs higher % chronically wrong). A practice that survived millennia across populations that themselves survived has >.999 of being safe. Nature is robust statistically. #Lindy #Antifragile https://twitter.com/neorevolt/status/1160163806451916807 Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @Monsantobuster Quillette promotes “IQ-denial=science denial”, “refusal of scientific racism=refusal of science”. Like Monsanto w/glyphosate=science Claire Lehman herself said her mission is to defend inherited genetic differences in intelligence all the while denying they are into RACISM. pic.twitter.com/IcwDrMb9n4 Permalink 3:23 AM – 10 Aug 2019 @nntaleb People loooooove the idea of BS busting. Until they find out that they are the ones being busted. Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Aug 2019 @mikeandallie I’m super excited about the results in this paper – they solved a problem that drew me into finance in the late 1990s. Can’t wait to play around the results over the next few weeks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1159545366330642434 Permalink 12:36 PM – 8 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Posted on ArXiv the paper on tail option pricing & shopping for a journal. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.02347 6th Journal pub in 2019! PS- Peer-review of technical work is often necessary but never sufficient (can be a cover for psych BS). It is not necessary if the proof is in the doc. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8Cm0Bqf8MI”> pic.twitter.com/8Cm0Bqf8MI Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Aug 2019 @TalebWisdom “2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. ” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Monsanto’s campaign against U.S. Right to Know: key themes and documents via @USRightToKnow https://usrtk.org/our-investigations/monsanto-usrtk-foia/ Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019 @TalebWisdom “Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Aug 2019 @NonMeek “Monsanto paid Google to promote search results for “Monsanto Glyphosate Carey Gillam” that criticized her work.” This is disturbing. Permalink 5:51 AM – 8 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Revealed: how Monsanto’s ‘intelligence center’ targeted journalists and activists [SUCH AS YOURS TRULY] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/07/monsanto-fusion-center-journalists-roundup-neil-young?CMP=share_btn_tw Permalink 5:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019 @Yazanator Joe Norman is doing amazing work with Nassim Taleb exposing the racist @Quillette agenda of fraudulent IQ superiority in different races and eugenics. Give the guy a follow, he also talks a lot about Complexity Science which is interesting. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1159412318775730178 Permalink 4:23 AM – 8 Aug 2019 @nntaleb PDF is (and will remain) freely available, @xtsop. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ https://twitter.com/xtsop/status/1159416035541487616 Permalink 4:05 AM – 8 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I myself lie about my age. For 20 years I have been using 1924 as a birthdate with journalists, people who don’t know how to mind their own business, and on social media. I shd be a centenarian before finishing the 2nd Technical Volume. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1159074479194066944 Permalink 7:38 PM – 7 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Connecting the INCERTO to various research traditions pic.twitter.com/NTlUSEn9pj Permalink 4:00 PM – 7 Aug 2019 @nntaleb What I found disgusting about Peterson is that he made yuuuge $$from charity from kids who made much much less than he did. Like TV evangelists of the old days. Then I blocked him. Is Claire “Lehman Brothers” still shouting that she is not into a neoNazi eugenics agenda? https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1159214975887519746 Permalink 2:59 PM – 7 Aug 2019 @GuillPaquet You might be stacking sats but we at @BullBitcoin_ are stacking @nntaleb’s #Incerto Head of investments : @francispouliot_ pic.twitter.com/eNtXSUG4c6 Permalink 2:13 PM – 7 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I apologize. It was the Swiss. Permalink 10:58 AM – 7 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Voila, the Germans like combative rigor vs BS. https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/ist-der-intelligenzquotient-ein-pseudowissenschaftlicher-schwindel-nassim-taleb-geht-auf-konfrontation-mit-steven-pinker-und-anderen-helden-des-dark-web-ld.1450747?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=Twitter Permalink 9:42 AM – 7 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Don’t read; reread. https://twitter.com/FlowPandito/status/1159039169211043843 Permalink 5:54 AM – 7 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaign against yours truly (1500 letters to the university plus all manner of negative comments on social media). https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1159067331315871744 Permalink 4:49 AM – 7 Aug 2019 @pauld198 that was a big mistake – you should have followed NNT’s advice ” don’t talk science with non-scientists” Permalink 10:41 PM – 6 Aug 2019 @nntaleb In my book Dynamic Hedging I show arbitrage bounds for correlations, a tutorial. We knew correlations were not transitive but the bounds were arbitrages. pic.twitter.com/ag59oBjRVs Permalink 11:17 AM – 4 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Terry Tao has a nice (but very technical write-up) on the transitivity of correlation. https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2014/06/05/when-is-correlation-transitive/ Permalink 11:13 AM – 4 Aug 2019 @nntaleb QUIZ. Here is another statistical error by IQ-Eugenists. Show the magnitude of the error (bounds on correlation) pic.twitter.com/uocognaol7 Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Aug 2019 @nntaleb RWRI has evolved into a scalable BS busting operation. All you need to do in life and business is spot BS; the rest takes care of itself. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1158007933717794818 Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Another example of why you cannot use statistical formulas without knowing probability. Majority of neuroscience papers miscalculate significance. pic.twitter.com/hJ0F9aoA5Y Permalink 7:59 AM – 4 Aug 2019 @nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s … https://youtu.be/k_lYeNuBTE8 via @YouTube Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Aug 2019 @nntaleb My IQ piece: “To do well in life one needs to think independently. And one has to be a lunatic (or a psychologist) to believe that a standardized test will reveal independent thinking.” Edgar Morin (born Nahum) is a smart fellow. https://twitter.com/edgarmorinparis/status/1157958405878951936 Permalink 6:18 AM – 4 Aug 2019 @DaveGulimlim “My idea of the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.” Permalink 11:58 PM – 3 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I’ve never had a problem with people who disagree with me, contradict me or find mistakes. I just cannnnnnnnnnnot take BS. Yuuuuge allergy to BS. https://twitter.com/bmiloy/status/1157769951412801536 Permalink 3:44 PM – 3 Aug 2019 @nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac). http://bethmardutho.org/mc/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um”> pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019 @nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac). http://bethmardutho.org/mc/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um”> pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019 @nntaleb You know charlatan Sam Harris is lying because superstitious Eastern Mediterraneans never pass the salt (I am aggressively superstitious). Plus he offered to “bury the hatchet” and wrote this when I told him to f*** off. Permalink 8:01 AM – 3 Aug 2019 @sean_a_mcclure pic.twitter.com/TFUTbC2szX Permalink 7:35 AM – 3 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I need to buy mosquito repellent spray; but I am naturally a repellent to IYIs. They feel they are choking in my presence as I produced fumes only they can detect. 3 minutes and they are gone. Just consider the reaction of BSvendor Sam Harris pic.twitter.com/RBLj8Rryjy Permalink 6:46 AM – 3 Aug 2019 @nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019 @nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019 @VergilDen If Taleb calls you out on Twitter, best to meet with him privately to understand his position, lest you create a record on Twitter of your ignorance. Taleb knows the position of his opponents better than his opponents. Permalink 6:34 PM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb For those in interested in my fight with Nate Silver, a sequel –except that it got more technical. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157399736980295680 Permalink 3:57 PM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The story with Nate Silver has another episode. Aubrey Clayton wrote to the journal in defense of Silver claiming flaws with my election paper. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.01576 And I respond in the journal. https://www.academia.edu/39998351/All_Roads_Lead_to_Quantitative_Finance_Response_to_Clayton_ Permalink 2:16 PM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb We stopped responding when Lehman used the Blank Slate which is a straw man (almost noboby believes in the Blank Slate). Quillette’s followers might be as stupid as the editors (they are) & cheered; but it is the defense by Lehman that confirmed the sinister racial agenda! pic.twitter.com/rtBVWCPF2l Permalink 1:40 PM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Geneticists (this smart fellow) seem on same side of the IQ debate. But they miss a potent functional argument x-not- f(x). IQ could be as heritable as height. But the function of IQ, f(x), performance, is 1 correlation^2 removed (& is small). Yuuge! https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1155065639624695808?s=20 Permalink 1:29 PM – 2 Aug 2019 @financequant Trees protected against wind tend to fall over prematurely. Thus, trees gain from such disorder and stress. We need a good name for this. Anti-fragile, perhaps? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1157351337639710721 Permalink 11:12 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Hell is to care about it. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1157150794099019778 Permalink 10:06 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Correction: maximum .12 of the Variance according to THEIR OWN research (the heritability metric, Falconer’s “h-square” is hard to map to standard variance). For me, because of adjustments, still <.02 Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #goldfinger #universalexports #cliffhanger pic.twitter.com/uiUO7UElzo Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @spyrosmakrid Today I received the royalty statement of “Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You” (it is a book about uncertainty and the role of luck) and remembered when Nassim visited us at INSEAD to help us promote the book. It is ten years since then and we all look so young. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/TPQtAmzfQ1 Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @normonics What this says is that on the most charitable read, the VAST MAJORITY of the phenomena in question are left unexplained, while the narratives being spun would have you believe we have a clear picture as to what is going on with “intelligence” and “heritability of intelligence” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157245410303447040 Permalink 5:05 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @TalebWisdom “A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The IQ Eugenics “debate” is over, using psych’s own results. Best correlation psychs report IQ-performance (milit)=.5 (explains 25% of variance w/o my own adjustments). Heritability of IQ scores, again 25% of var. So for THEM genetics explains .06 of variance in BEST. for me:<.02 https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1157206500135317504 Permalink 4:03 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Food debasement (identical to currencies) Non-artisanal corporations w/MBA managers start substituting products progressively that imperceptibly worsen the product, until blowup. You start w/lemonade, then sell what passes for lemonade. Same as bankers hiding risk for a bonus. Permalink 3:44 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @RaniaKhalek The hostility on display from the anchor in this interview shows that they hate Tulsi Gabbard no matter what she says, and they hate her for her foreign policy views that antagonize against war https://twitter.com/msnbc/status/1157016332828925952 Permalink 2:34 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb I mean sunflower oil not corn oil in France pic.twitter.com/3VU5sRMqxi Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb The problem is that, except for sushi bars, one cannot eat out without inspecting the kitchen. Even “olive oil” is often debased, like a currency, with seed oil. We need a “seed oil detector” very badly. Permalink 2:02 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb Just came back from East Med where one can escape seed oil. Avoiding France: + France: heavily marketing corn oil as “healthy” solution. Now invading French cooking replacing butter/lard. Air France’s olive oil is 66% corn oil! + Belgium: Fries no longer w/tallow, but seed oil. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157086891633758209 Permalink 1:52 AM – 2 Aug 2019 @nntaleb “If you want people to buy a book, tell them it is overrated”. Bed of Procrustes pic.twitter.com/3DgvC088M5 Permalink 5:11 PM – 1 Aug 2019 @john_santin Just reading the book now, so let’s see if I’ve got this right . . . Fragile = Complaining about enemies Robust = Not having enemies Antifragile = Having enemies that complain about you Did I get it? What am I missing if not? Permalink 5:01 PM – 1 Aug 2019 @financequant The MSM is troubled. CNN averages an audience of ~700K. This number is beaten by a fair number #youtube accounts (I’m talking about those with serious content.) which are produced by tiny staffs. There are over 2M people paying to support content providers on Patreon. 1/2 Permalink 4:12 PM – 1 Aug 2019 @financequant If the Democrats put up Tulsi Gabbard for president they would win the White House. I would certainly vote for her. Alas, they will put up someone like Warren or, much worse, Sanders and commit political suicide. Forcing me again to vote for some third party candidate again. Permalink 1:41 PM – 1 Aug 2019 @TulsiGabbard We were all lied to. We were told that Saddam had WMD, was working w/ Al Qaeda & that this posed a threat to the American people. But not only have we not gone after Al Qaeda, they are stronger than they were on 9/11 #TULSI2020 #DemDebate http://tulsi.to/stand-with-tulsi ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/XrYhNbt85i”> pic.twitter.com/XrYhNbt85i Permalink 12:18 AM – 1 Aug 2019 @nntaleb In other words if as @stuartjrichie claims IQ tests correlate at .8, you have a quite large uncertainty about your own IQ hence you should propagate to the performance. The overall correlation is not unconditional. Permalink 9:32 AM – 31 Jul 2019 @nntaleb So psychologist @stuartjrichie writes a book on IQ. In it he reveals that your own IQ tests correlate at .8— every time you take the test. He didn’t realize the need to discount accordingly correlations IQ-performance by devastating amounts. Psychology is astrology. Permalink 8:57 AM – 31 Jul 2019 @RandPaul I’m headed to the floor soon to speak on this budget “deal.” You would think in an era of renewed trillion-dollar budgets, in an era of 22 trillion debts, you would think SOMEONE in this body or in this town would make a deal to CUT spending. Watch here: https://www.c-span.org/congress/?chamber=senate Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019 @nntaleb One lesson to everyone about #Antifragile and not just to “racemonger Claire” @clairlemon: Never claim to be antifragile and play victim. Never. Gabish? https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156322427212722176 Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019 @CliffordAsness I’m in the minority I think, but out of so much great work I think this is one of ⁦@nntaleb⁩’s most subtle and important. Perfectly describes the social media veto given to a tiny minority. And subtly one of biggest threats to liberty. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 5:27 AM – 31 Jul 2019 @hedging_reality Love the fact that @nntaleb clearly thinks for himself (understatement) and could not care any f*cking less wether one agrees with or approves of his positions, thoughts, or facts. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156411907982667778 Permalink 9:57 PM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Fucking moron it’s not a fight: it’s watching her do self-flagellation, which gets painful once it starts eliciting commiseration. Permalink 8:50 PM – 30 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction.” – Nassim Taleb #progress Permalink 7:58 PM – 30 Jul 2019 @AaronAllisonCPA Celebrating my birthday with a little present to myself… Incerto, deluxe edition. Beautiful. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RhFINguYme Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Fundamental Risk Asymmetry: “No that’s too risky” & “I don’t know” are effectively the same statement. (see #Antifragile). Why? Because if I don’t know whether the plane/the food/the technology is safe or not, I don’t ride in it. pic.twitter.com/XSyMGkWE54 Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb She is so clueless and stressed out you need to take it easy on her. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1156232905192026112 Permalink 9:30 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @Monsantobuster People who still have doubt that @clairlemon is into what Feynman calls “cargo cult”, the name for “scientism”. Prof Taleb is right you need to go to school finish your degrees and study something. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156164287595012102 Permalink 8:59 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @black_swan_man Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #fightthefed #goldfinger pic.twitter.com/9al0XGT1zP Permalink 6:03 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb No https://twitter.com/ACCapitalist/status/1155943171374768128 Permalink 4:38 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Heraklius wasted energy on the Persians his victory was Pyrrhic. It weakened him. https://twitter.com/rcssmedasmith/status/1156130132953665537 Permalink 2:19 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb At least two Roman emperors were either killed or captured by the Persians on that 700 year long Persian war. Who is the second? https://twitter.com/manimanavi/status/1156125697078943744 Permalink 2:04 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb At the request on Quillette followers I took an IQ test. Guess my score: Permalink 1:00 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Not counting Cyrus’ invasion of Babylon and the Levant: he defeated the Babylonians freed the Jews and brought them back home. Permalink 12:51 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The Iranian waged a 800 year war ag Romans. The Iranian frontier bankrupted Byzantium and led to the Arab invasion. Same with the Ottomans. Border stayed firm. The mistake everyone makes is to underestimate how stubborn Persia is https://twitter.com/daniellmcadams/status/1155964776440184832 Permalink 12:22 AM – 30 Jul 2019 @nntaleb This is turning out to be a farce. For @clairlemon correlation and estimation theory should be outside mathematics. Off to meet @spyrosmakrid in Athens to tawk about the M5 competition. https://twitter.com/monsantobuster/status/1156061528757587968 Permalink 9:42 PM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Turned out these ladies are in the business of ML for sending SP500 trading orders to a hedge fund either in Italy or in Texas. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155823345193107456 Permalink 7:26 PM – 29 Jul 2019 @Monsantobuster What Claire Lehman, dropout from a Masters in Forensic Psychology calls “garbled nonsense” of Prof. Taleb is called in some circles: MATHEMATICS. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155955172448673793 Permalink 7:23 PM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Peterson a bon vivant? Part of the reason I blocked Peterson is because of his dullness. https://twitter.com/iozjrok/status/1155945094475739136 Permalink 7:11 PM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I block/mute people when I have no more use for them, nothing to learn from their arguments: Jordan Peterson, Impostor Molyneux, Mountebank Charles Murray, RacePromoter @clairlemon Not Sailer, Cochran, etc. Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Actually worse than I claimed. https://twitter.com/pzalloua/status/1155892239928832000 Permalink 10:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Yes the book I use for entropy https://books.google.com.lb/books/about/Elements_of_Information_Theory.html?id=VWq5GG6ycxMC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false Permalink 9:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The owners of my favorite squid ink place, Kelly’s in Beirut, said they refuse to serve squid ink out of season. Other restaurants have it frozen from the winter. pic.twitter.com/wUs88OJ3Ty Permalink 9:14 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @normonics Meta-IQ test: you are given a sequence: 2, 4, 8, 16, … what is the next item? Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Taking 3 semesters off from teaching at NYU, officially to use freed time to “study Greek-Latin-Aramaic”. Will return in the Spring of 2021 with a course of informational entropy. Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @aldertrack In Greek κ will be pronounced like a G when it follows a ν, so Θα πάω στην Καλαμάτα is pronounced as Tha pao steen Galamata Permalink 7:13 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The discussion with Quillette and “Race Supremacy Claire” @clairlemon has ended with this. https://twitter.com/oceanclub/status/1155781059797278725 Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @UntergrundmannG Taleb has an updated post up at medium that takes care of most of this. You could take the time to weigh that in against this all over again. And if you come back here in a few days, I may have a post up about how this is a trivial misunderstanding of NNT’s case. Quantitatively. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Was getting hate tweets from Quillette clients at a rate of 1 per min, many using racial epithets to claim that @clairlemon is not into neoNazi agenda. Slowed down to about 10/min. Next, w/@normonics, preparing a formal technical paper (complex systems) abt the IQ fraud. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Correctio: predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli. Permalink 6:29 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @Ol_Wall There’s a difference between something having a genetic component and proving / publishing based on it. Of course there’s a genetic component to behaviour!! That doesn’t mean we can reliably know what that is – or should publish those shaky claims. Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Extrrrrrremely impressed with the sophistication of these machine-learning researchers in the Sunni enclave of Tripoli, Lebanon. They know the problems with distance metrics inside out. They are working to produce entropy maps. pic.twitter.com/l25u9k1C2v Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @EbbcMunich Our session last Tuesday was a great workshop based on Antifragile by @nntaleb For more info see https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6559842939617456128 Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb So Quillette’s IQ “scientific” racism is more scientific than the Nazi’s racism/racial superiority theories? https://twitter.com/proclete/status/1155813118150422528?s=20 Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Is @clairlemon still denying that her Quillete project is into a neo-Nazi “scientific” racism (“race realism”) agenda? Permalink 5:08 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @scmarco69 Cf cet article technique de Taleb: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155735795325636609 qui démontre que toute utilisation du QI dans le monde réel est à peu près vouée à l’échec. Permalink 4:49 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @Extrachelle Food of the Gods, literally. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155751198785449984 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hoyfVstWKq”> pic.twitter.com/hoyfVstWKq Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Jul 2019 @normonics Intelligence is WAY too important and essential for what it means to be human to cede to the low-dimensional Pinker-style quillette IQ pseudointellectuals Permalink 6:04 PM – 28 Jul 2019 @normonics Why is @nntaleb calling @Quillette promotion of race science via IQ a neo-nazi agenda? Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb No. https://twitter.com/Jazzy_ggxx/status/1155534241372999680 Permalink 10:47 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb He is hired. His thread explains much of my position on IQ research. Add that 1) I don’t deny heritability of *something* in non-feedback linear environments, 2) Higher dimensions are not tractable (curse of dimensionality) & #Quilletteidiots don’t get it https://twitter.com/sean_a_mcclure/status/1155487369019232259?s=20 Permalink 10:32 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @HenryJOncology #skininthegame @nntaleb tells a more important issue: no one except #patients benefit from using hard endpoints that result in trial failure. Everyone else benefits with a positive result in USA. Perverse incentives to create bad trials with weak endpoints. @VincentRK https://twitter.com/HenryJOncology/status/1155525572271005697 Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @EricTopol He’s my new friend! Thanks @JpMikhaiel for your perceptive take, especially for bringing in @nntaleb’s important work. And kudos @kevinmd for hosting a site that gives medical students the chance to get their views out https://twitter.com/hipp0kratis/status/1155518666815000576 Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @DaveGulimlim Reading Antifragile by @nntaleb tonight. I’m about to reach halfway and the insights are staggering. This might be one of the most influential books for me this year. “I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.” https://twitter.com/DaveGulimlim/status/1155485670019747840/photo/1 href=” http://pic.twitter.com/7MtEosIItd pic.twitter.com/vjtmKyi3yb”> pic.twitter.com/7MtEosIItd pic.twitter.com/vjtmKyi3ybPermalink 7:35 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I have always fought those who accuse others Nazism & eugenics. So far I’ve made one single accusation of neo-Nazi agenda: @clairlemon & the broad @Quillette crowd, for their closet promotion of pseudoscientific ideas about IQ, race, etc., under cover of defense of free-speech. https://twitter.com/Ol_Wall/status/1155475727979970562 Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Perhaps before lecturing people about “understanding reality”, Ms. Lehmann should make some effort in getting schooling in elementary statistics. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155472268295725056?s=20 Permalink 6:48 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @ReadTrying The problem with Taleb isnt that he’s an asshole. He is an asshole. The problem with Taleb is that he’s an asshole and he’s right. Permalink 6:09 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb This is the kind of crap I’ve been getting nonstop from Quilette followers. pic.twitter.com/5js8w1xrooPermalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @DA_Stockman Tulsi Gabbard’s Suit Against Google Is A Double Plus Good https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/tulsi-gabbards-suit-against-google-is-a-double-plus-good/ Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Answer @SamuelGWalters. For all x>0. Now the left side? pic.twitter.com/repUnkL7pRPermalink 3:57 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb How many fucking times do I have to repeat that I have public tutorial lectures on probability? https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww https://twitter.com/raushan2020/status/1155425057663062016 Permalink 3:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Math Problem du jour: Can you make the right side tighter? https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1154611803323686913 Permalink 3:26 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I said Greek not just Orthodox because of a cluster of inherited Byzantine stuff: the architecture (the dome is Byzantine), the prayer (initial Greek prayer included prostration), etc. Permalink 2:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb To continue the thread. Lehman is a fraud, & not smart enough to be caught. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155404493867106304?s=20 Permalink 2:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Nationalists, falsely accused of racism, hold “all children are equal but each under obligation to give preference to their own” @Quilette’s full neo-Nazi approach: “these people are genetically inferior; let us find the science ( and fake defense of free speech) to back it up” Permalink 1:56 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb A nonvote for the official democrat will effectively be a half-vote for Trump. Gabish? Permalink 1:28 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb For those who doubt the Greek Orthodox origin of the female veil (Iranian style)… Church in Amioun. pic.twitter.com/M5LfM7mRlMPermalink 12:36 AM – 28 Jul 2019 @nntaleb My speculation that there will be a growing closet Trump support in the far left is getting more and more confirmation. https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/1155225067644542976 Permalink 3:00 PM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Yes I know I am rude by calling IQ people imbeciles (which they are). But they are classifying entire populations as idiots. People who already have enough problems. I am going to upset the “Fake free-speech” @Quillette crowd & “Klueeeeless Claire” @clairlemon a bit more. Permalink 9:36 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb BTّW for those who want to see my thingy with IQ, here is the paper, heading towards the half a million readers. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb “Klueless Claire” Lehman, @clairlemon you are so kluuuuless abt Popper/falsification it’s not even funny. Statistical claims in psych are not testable in the Popperian sense, & if they are, can be easily falsified by showing the metric is uninformative. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155084999328014336?s=20 Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Also impossible to teach charlatans that “handwaving” means exactly what THEY do for a living. @clairlemon should stop Quillette, and take a study sabbatical (5-10 years) to do some elementary statistics, data science, etc., before uttering such verbiage. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155078139585761281?s=20 Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Impossible to teach charlatans the very notion that SCIENCE=RIGOR, little else. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155078139585761281?s=20 Permalink 4:44 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @oskarth Spotted in Taiwan in traditional Chinese! Works for asymmetrical one arm overhead presses too. pic.twitter.com/m7G988cCVgPermalink 4:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Friends, any idea how to make @wolfram Mathematica data synchronous? One single missing date makes comparisons very hard. pic.twitter.com/3Zais8pSpAPermalink 4:14 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb For those into some math, here is why social scientists don’t seem to know what correlation means. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ Permalink 3:53 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Finally submitted to journal my paper showing psychological research on forecasting is largely fiction. (Includes @Ptetlock’s superforekast not even mentioned in paper) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cWgl3ZJP9K”> pic.twitter.com/cWgl3ZJP9K Permalink 3:46 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I am not discounting heredity. But the research extending it to such matters as “intelligence” is largely fraud. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155063096731480065?s=20 Permalink 3:37 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Behavioral genetics is largely an intellectual fraud. Resisting promoting them, @clairlemon, even if you like their message. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155043769370025984 Permalink 3:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019 @trishankkarthik First impressions on the @SS_strength seminar: There are a lot of similarities between @CoachRippetoe and @nntaleb: they both say what they like fearlessly, do not suffer BS gladly (can tell by passionate anger), and are funny as hell while delivering powerful truths Permalink 9:24 PM – 26 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Philological coincidences, 1 In French, crier is to shout, in English (primarily) to shed tears. In Lebanese, 3ayyet is to shout, in Egyptian 3ayyat is to shed tears. Permalink 3:50 AM – 26 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Lamma 7ada bi 2llak lbet beytak, bi2akkidlak inno hayda mush baytak. Permalink 3:40 AM – 26 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The principal benefit of Mathematica, as @financequant figured out, is that everything is precisely defined. Mathematical papers often have shortcuts or fuzzy definitions (particularly when dealing with vectors and matrices); @Wolfram Mathematica has to be exact. Permalink 2:44 AM – 26 Jul 2019 @nntaleb We respond to Clayton’s comment on my paper in defense of “Klueless Nate” Silver. pic.twitter.com/RkLg6L31kz Permalink 1:23 AM – 26 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The problem is not babbling journalists. The problem is that the entire intelligentsia has been saying the same crap. Commentary on the events of the Trump presidency provide the best test of mental faculties. https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1154086058918916097 Permalink 4:13 PM – 25 Jul 2019 @nntaleb James @drjamesdinic is figuring out something central. What do ALL elements of this list have in common? These are ULTRA MODERN, not #Lindy. Worse than sugar: seed oils touted as “healthy”(olive/avoc./cocon. oils are not seed oils). And seed oils are everywhere in restaurants. https://twitter.com/drjamesdinic/status/1154337958385917952 Permalink 3:59 PM – 25 Jul 2019 @CarstenBKK Here is @nntaleb et. al. take on climate change. I can’t phrase it any better: https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7nqiuU1S2i”> pic.twitter.com/7nqiuU1S2i Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The principle of revelation of preferences (#skininthegame) is what people do, where people go, how they vote with their feet, not what’s published some paper with pictures. https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1154460234842165249 Permalink 1:56 PM – 25 Jul 2019 @lhamtil Whenever people suggest my sector & industry analysis is tired, I refer them to this passage by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/YAiX3pywVn Permalink 1:18 PM – 25 Jul 2019 @Jaffer22915438 Breaking: Tulsi sues Google for interference and manipulation! https://www.tulsi2020.com/tulsi-vs-google?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=190725_bigtech Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @TulsiGabbard 2/3 – #Google controls 88% of internet search in the US — giving it control over our access to information. Google’s arbitrary suspension of the account of a presidential candidate should be of concern to all Americans. http://tulsi.to/tulsi-vs-google Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @TulsiGabbard TULSI2020: In the hours following the 1st debate, while millions of Americans searched for info about Tulsi, Google suspended her search ad account w/o explanation. It is vital to our democracy that big tech companies can’t affect the outcome of elections http://tulsi.to/tulsi-vs-google Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @paulportesi Thread by @nntaleb: “1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who hasr a living. 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school pr []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1093163028739248129.html Permalink 7:10 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Invent a probability distribution that’s neither thin nor fat tailed. [Jetlag in Northern Phoenicia] pic.twitter.com/7XMYmK1Pb1 Permalink 4:07 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 2) I asked Ridley for tail risk analysis for GMO crops. He showed a few statistically lame papers showing “benefits”, and some scientism. And if there is no tail risk analysis it’s because GMO peddlers do not even know what tail risk means. https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1154126020942991360?s=20 Permalink 3:11 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Drove to Ehden from the coast. Tallied the names of villages on the way. Not only there was NOT a single village with Arab name, but there were: +Balamand (Belmont, Crusader) +Rushdebbin (Roche des Pins, Crusader) +Kousba (my mother’s) (Cuspa, Roman) Stop the Arabist fraud. Permalink 2:57 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Boris Johnson’s position on GMOs/biotech which effectively centralize and delocalize crops (puts nature in the hands of technocorps) is opposite to his position on Brexit which effectively localist & against socioeconomic centralization (puts Britain in the hands of technocrats)! Permalink 2:50 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @davidsarac I am getting to appreciate how highly educated people are the most dangerous thing on the planet. In a same way how excess of order produces evil, too much exposure to academic environment produces retardation of mental faculties @normonics @nntaleb @GreenRupertRead https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1154126020942991360 Permalink 12:12 AM – 25 Jul 2019 @Petepicasso10 Intellectuals yet idiots like @nntaleb would say. https://twitter.com/Suffragentleman/status/1153727052601856003 Permalink 7:49 PM – 24 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Ron Paul & @DanielLMcAdams are my filter in the middle of the noise. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1154101196921212930 Permalink 1:40 PM – 24 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Correction: I meant I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than agree with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? Permalink 11:38 AM – 24 Jul 2019 @nntaleb It is certain that Ms @RaniaKhalek has no notion of what a fallacy means. The problem isn’t convincing her & other intellectual rejects in her group, but making people with brains are aware of these fraudulent slogans thrown at them. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1152234669783560192?s=20 Permalink 9:34 AM – 24 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Started to ship https://amzn.to/2XLMaTF https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1142416150254575617 Permalink 6:57 AM – 24 Jul 2019 @ggreenwald It’s also bizarre to watch House Democrats constantly herald Mueller’s career as one of great “moral rectitude.” Does this little episode just not count at all? pic.twitter.com/fTenOKlgbi Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? https://twitter.com/DavidRedelingh2/status/1154003900879527936 Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Mistakes: In Lebanese, l not el; 3arabiyyé not siyyara. But good effort. Permalink 2:03 AM – 24 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Mathematica is addictive and makes math addictive. https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1153766126855307265 Permalink 2:01 AM – 24 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Andrew Gelman’s discussion with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about sexism, racism and retrospective bigoteering in the U.S. Declaration of Independence https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/07/23/discussion-with-nassim-taleb-about-sexism-and-racism-in-the-declaration-of-independence/#.XTd6s5XxrMc.twitter Permalink 2:24 PM – 23 Jul 2019 @nntaleb We are clearly winning. The geopolitical state can no longer control the language. Bottom up wins in the age of social media. https://twitter.com/ChristoChammas/status/1153683744403992579 Permalink 10:05 AM – 23 Jul 2019 @nntaleb If someone acts like a shill, odds are he/she is a shill. (Dan Gardner busted) https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1153475301063745536 Permalink 4:40 AM – 23 Jul 2019 @nntaleb CNN, the designation “congresswoman of color” is itself racist. pic.twitter.com/TREH8dRRZt Permalink 7:23 PM – 22 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 2) Never trust a journalist unless she’s your mother. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1152195094398873602 Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 1) Thomas “the Chin” Friedman… https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1152195094398873602 Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Virtue is the difference between what you do in public and what you do in private. Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I finally got that Bolton doesn’t exist as an advisor; he is at best a negotiation tool. He is just someone who barks very loud and incoherently so Trump can make a deal, if possible. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1153390958798680065 Permalink 12:51 PM – 22 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Done with the paper on forecasting, debunking the BS by “Phil the rat” Tetlock @ptetlock. Addresses some problems with @robinhanson and his claims about prediction markets. https://www.academia.edu/38962327/On_the_Statistical_Differences_between_Binary_Forecasts_and_Real_World_Payoffs Permalink 12:18 PM – 22 Jul 2019 @black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #goldfinger pic.twitter.com/ZfNrAcQu7R Permalink 7:24 AM – 22 Jul 2019 @nntaleb You don’t need mathematics to be rigorous; you can achieve formalism w/legal documents, where everything is precisely defined. Contracts & codes from Theodosius to Cambaceres→elimination of VERBALISM from documents. I learned that w/financial term sheets. Everything is mapped. Permalink 6:19 AM – 22 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Verbalism, a general definition. Does it supercede all other “fallacies” in critical thinking made in intellectual discourse? pic.twitter.com/quMrzs9kji Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2019 @jimmy_wales Is there a way to get back to the old twitter interface? Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “You may eventually forgive and befriend someone who harmed you, never someone who bored you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:11 PM – 21 Jul 2019 @nntaleb “Pharma is better at invending diseases for its existing treatments, than treatments for existing diseases” Bed of Procrustes https://twitter.com/Firefly_fan/status/1153043992327675904 Permalink 1:49 PM – 21 Jul 2019 @nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event? Wittgenstein’s Ruler https://youtu.be/k_lYeNuBTE8 Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jul 2019 @nntaleb You can only disagree with people who are wrong, not those who are “not even wrong”. When you engage a charlatan (as with @snowded for the above derivations) he represents your debunking his fallacies for a “disagreement”. Permalink 7:51 AM – 21 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:07 PM – 20 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Doesn’t look like your regular IT professional. At 73. https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1152240931015462914 Permalink 5:21 PM – 20 Jul 2019 @financequant Sigh… If it NEVER works then why? https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1152687931183816714 Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 Jul 2019 @nntaleb This has been on for 5 years, @Adam_Bat https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww/videos https://twitter.com/Adam_Bat/status/1152643920339308545 Permalink 11:22 AM – 20 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:10 AM – 20 Jul 2019 @nntaleb God made mathematics so you can tell me where I am wrong; the fragility of a derivation is transparent for all to see. Formalism allows the slightest nonsense to show. Some econs/psychs produce obscure equations to hide nonsense. They get caught: you can debunk using math! Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Jul 2019 @nntaleb OK, OK, This is my precise definitions for Fragility, Robustness, & Antifragility. The paper is here. This will be part of the 2nd vol of the Technical Incerto (Includes #Lindy) called: “Fragility Risk and Convexity”. (link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0hhs/Fragility%20Taleb%20Douady%202012.pdf?dl=0 ) http://dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uVIugpXzen”> pic.twitter.com/uVIugpXzen Permalink 5:14 AM – 20 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Science is not about authority, consensus, and verbalisms, but proofs and derivations. Permalink 3:42 AM – 20 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Snowden, I said it before: you are a handwaving bullshitter. Show us some mathematical formalism if you can or shut the fuck up. Permalink 3:37 AM – 20 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I meant squatting closer to your max: when you are in the lower position. Permalink 2:07 PM – 19 Jul 2019 @nntaleb It’s there. Just a small suggestion: perhaps you should read the book before lecktschuring its author. Permalink 1:21 PM – 19 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 1) This is exactly why academic tests select for those nerdy enough be motivated during the test; no translation to mental powers in real life. 2) @CoachRippetoe reports the same “panic” while deadlifting close to your max: you need to stand up, failure is no option. https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1138205473889558528 Permalink 12:02 PM – 19 Jul 2019 ## Pinker, Old Twitter, Epstein, @AlanDersh, LTCM, Option Pricing, GENETICS, Nudging, Eddie Hall, #Corporatism, IQ, Dawkins, #RWRI, Psychologists, Principia Politica, @TulsiGabbard | Twitter @nntaleb Ms @Rania_Masri I wonder if they subjected you to some middle-school elementary reasoning test before you became “professor”? The Lebanese ministry is NOT preventing foreigners taking jobs that the Lebanese don’t wants to perform. @RaniaKhalek https://twitter.com/rania_masri/status/1152239325972783105?s=20 Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there are 7 severe logical fallacies in your response (I mean severe, severe defects in reasoning). Can you find at least one? Give it a try. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152226133976518658 Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @spyrosmakrid The M4 Competition ended the long forecasting winter A description of the M4, its major findings/conclusions and detail Tables are available in https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.014 Preparations for the M5 that will use high frequency/hierarchical data have started, scientific advisor NN Taleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ExyziTzJ2d”> pic.twitter.com/ExyziTzJ2d Permalink 6:54 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Oppa! https://twitter.com/creek_mudd/status/1152190401664704512 Permalink 5:57 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @davidboxenhorn I have disagreed @nntaleb in the past for being too harsh with Pinker, because it seemed to me that Pinker was wrong but not dishonest. I have now revised my opinion Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @davidboxenhorn An ethical person does not regret telling the truth in a court of law, even when a bad person benefits from it. This is so important that it’s one of the Ten Commandments Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @davidboxenhorn I read Pinker’s letter of defense (linked) and was disgusted. Not because he did a favor for a friend, and not because contributed to Epstein’s defense, but because he now regrets it https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2019/07/12/tarring-steve-pinker-and-others-with-jeffrey-epstein/ https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1150780000108457992 Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, please go to the UN in NY and shout blames at Iran, Russia, Belarus, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, China, Turkey, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, France, Panama, Romania, Thailand, CH, HK, Malaysia, Mexico, Colombia, Liberia, Ethiopia… for discrimination against foreigners. Permalink 4:55 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152174536118415360 Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152174536118415360 Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019 @QuintusCurtius The Roman dictator Sulla composed his own epitaph, which was: “No friend ever served me, and no enemy ever wronged me, whom I have not repaid in full.” There is a reason why he was called Sulla Felix, or Sulla the Happy. Permalink 10:21 PM – 18 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Twitter, @twitter, the new Twitter is horrible. Please give us back the old one. Permalink 4:17 PM – 18 Jul 2019 @mikeandallie (1/5 ish) I missed this tweet yesterday, but thankfully it showed up in my feed today thanks to a retweet from @financequant . The topic of the paper is the question a options trader friend asked me for help on 20+ years ago. It is amazingly cool to see the problem solved. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1151571849685454850 Permalink 10:28 AM – 18 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Intellectual fraud. https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1151617534845698049 Permalink 9:56 AM – 18 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Good news about the American justice system. It corrects itself. Epstein gamed it before with his part time “prison” sentence, something the poor could not afford. He used detectives to (legally) expose the private lives of his witnesses. 000s of offenders cannot afford bail. https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1151877502178123777 Permalink 9:05 AM – 18 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Improved (the LTCM blow up story) pic.twitter.com/l3K0ozQsu7 Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Jul 2019 @nntaleb BTW, this was explained 20 years ago in Fooled By Randomness but few got the exact point then. People are surprised to discover that the Incerto has a mathematical backbone. pic.twitter.com/hP4uVGjbeK Permalink 6:59 AM – 18 Jul 2019 @nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY OF PROBABILITY Asymmetry of inference: How to reject the Gaussian in favor of a power law. Easier than you think. From a Quiz posted here. Added to my new book https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0opH4pHgSa”> pic.twitter.com/0opH4pHgSa Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Jul 2019 @TheBillfish Mr. Taleb is 100% right. Execs at publicly traded companies are the equivalent of Communist Party Members, blindly and ruthlessly, doing what they are told to protect their station in life. So few add any value at all, and even fewer bring any innovation. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1151660033891024896 Permalink 5:16 AM – 18 Jul 2019 @nntaleb روحي و روحك يا روحي روحين بروح ان راحت روحك يا روحي روحي بتروح Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Jul 2019 @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jonboguth/status/1151665693890359297?s=20 Permalink 6:45 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Practically, any CEO who “rose through the ranks” is competent at being an actor. No exception. Entrepreneur or nothing. https://twitter.com/SOhimor/status/1151663542715723776?s=20 Permalink 6:35 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Anyone who does not distinguish between wealth generation via risk taking and rent-seeking will be blocked here. CEOs are rent seekers –so are B-School types. Innovators and entrepreneurs are risk-takers. Small business owners are risk-takers. We need risk takers. #Skininthegame Permalink 6:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb And year after year the rich are different. #ergodocity https://twitter.com/randpaul/status/1151534219027460097 Permalink 5:12 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 3) Solution and methodology pic.twitter.com/wmkNz6MeUR Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 2) SIMILAR PROBLEM: Someone tells you he saw a human 3 meter tall. What is the probability of the person being delusional (and no such thing as a 3m human) vs the probability of the person being sane and indeed there is a 3m human. Wittgenstein’s ruler, again, but in math form. Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb You can inverse the prior to a breakeven point. Permalink 1:11 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Let’s revisit the QUIZ more formally (I am adding it to my next book). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1003029601625485312 Permalink 12:51 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I can curse on Twitter but never on the page and never never inside my library(ies), simple separation holy/profane. You need separations holy/profane. #Lindy https://twitter.com/JT_ZLC/status/1151576128081006592 Permalink 12:39 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Talking skin in the game: the above pricing is what I have done heuristically, not formally, all my career in option trading. Every single person who held that “tails are expensive” have blown up (LTCM, Niederhoffer, bankers and other idiots) We just formalized & made public. Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Great day, finished the paper on option pricing under power laws. Mother of all results. Shows how tails are underpriced, EVEN now, how theories that tails are “expensive” are by sub-imbeciles. PLEASE TRY TO DEBUNK PAPER (but politely). https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pzzXmvRu9z”> pic.twitter.com/pzzXmvRu9z Permalink 12:18 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb To understand non-interventionism and skin in the game in international affairs, and what it has to do with multiscale localism https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Eg8vssypvI”> pic.twitter.com/Eg8vssypvI Permalink 12:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntalebbot “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Your political opinion has no value if you don’t try to act closer to a judge than to an advocate. Your political opinion has no value if you are an unconditional supporter or detractor of a president. Gabish? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica Permalink 11:10 AM – 17 Jul 2019 @CliffordAsness Nassim wouldn’t block me. He doesn’t block you for being wrong, which I might often be, but for being dishonest. Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Jul 2019 @DanielLMcAdams If I were the neocons I’d resign in protest!! Time to go, boys! https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/17/rand-paul-iran-talks-donald-trump-1418075 Permalink 10:45 AM – 17 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “The ancient Mediterranean : before monotheism, people changed and exchanged rites and gods as we do with ethnic food.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:16 AM – 17 Jul 2019 @encrier Today is the feast day of Saint Marina the Monk, or Marinos, a Lebanese saint and Patron Saint of Amiun in Northern Phoenicia (@nntaleb). She is venerated by Roman Catholics, Greek Orthodox, Maronites and Copts. May her story be an inspiration to those who read it. pic.twitter.com/JntHGmHep0 Permalink 1:12 AM – 17 Jul 2019 @nntaleb But of course the map has mistakes. There were Phoenician colonies in Provence (Ramatuelle= רמת אל, possibly Marseilles ), Ionia (Miletus). Also note the Punic settlements in the South Med all the way to Spain, a route taken by the “Arabic” language, picked up for similarity Permalink 2:07 PM – 16 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Interesting for those of us who are both. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1150824855329288192 Permalink 1:00 PM – 16 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society; the empiricist an imbecile-proof one, or even better, a rationalist-proof one.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:20 AM – 16 Jul 2019 @nntaleb It does not mean you can’t criticize a system; it means you can’t go after the very foundations of the system that got you there –the Godel-Popper rule. Some minorities have minority rules. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15?source=post_stats_page————————— Permalink 8:14 AM – 16 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Friends, any questions not covered in Principia Politica? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ixwVWivh8s”> pic.twitter.com/ixwVWivh8s Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #yoga Permalink 7:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Even in Technical Schools, administrators have degrees in “Education” hence indocrination & propaganda. These “education experts” are taking over universities & largely responsible for the rise in costs. Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Ideas of expropriation are present among educators as they are prone to social envy. They frequent the rich & feel “I am smart why I am not rich” yet have NO hope of making it on their own. It is therefore natural they indoctrinate our children. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 5:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Before listening to Omar & Tlaib, consider than their parents chose to find REFUGE in the US, not another country. It’s a nonrandom choice. Illegals are crossing borders in ONE direction. I myself came to America because of its properties. Preserving them is my duty. Permalink 5:01 AM – 16 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Society is being destroyed by schools and college teachers. Your children are indocrinated by people who are doing what they are doing because of their limited intellect and practical skills. And the costs TO YOU of such indocrination are ballooning. https://twitter.com/professorf/status/1150916425868910593 Permalink 5:20 PM – 15 Jul 2019 @RandPaul Proud that @realDonaldTrump and I argued with you against endless wars! @POTUS made it clear to all of us at the table, we are getting out of the Middle East quagmire. We’ve been there too long. Time to bring our troops home. https://twitter.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/1150542489549336576 Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Jul 2019 @nntaleb MATH PROBLEM DU JOUR In honor of Alexander B. who passed a year ago last week by @SamuelGWalters cc:@SvetlanaBogom13 https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1142642280387342336 Permalink 9:42 AM – 15 Jul 2019 @Jeffrey_the2nd “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” @nntaleb Permalink 9:17 AM – 15 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 1) Steven Pinker misrepresented his meeting with me. I merely exchanged email & trivialities. There was NO technical discussion. So you can take with grain of salt what he says abt #epstein. Besides never diss pple who hosted you (dinner, plane). pic.twitter.com/62fOjUyZRG Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2019 @MarkDice YouTube just demonetized my video about my trip to the White House! It was approved last night, and then as soon as it was published, it was demonetized. Really @TeamYouTube? C’mon. What a joke. pic.twitter.com/6pItapZt98 Permalink 7:13 AM – 15 Jul 2019 @LebaneseAlefBet ܒܬܰܥܪܶܦ݂ ܬܶܩܪܐ ܗܰܝܕܰܐ ܠ ܟ݂ܰܛ؟ Bta3ref teqra hayda l 5at? ܐ ܒ ܓ ܕ #ܐܬ Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I am nearly certain she is vegetarian, maybe even vegan. https://www.thedailybeast.com/lashana-lynch-will-play-first-female-007-in-new-james-bond-movie-report?source=twitter&via=desktop via @thedailybeast Permalink 5:46 PM – 14 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Never never compromise. Say it the way it is. Permalink 3:51 PM – 14 Jul 2019 @nntaleb No. It’s not by arguing with “kindness & care” that you break academic mafias, criminal organizations, impostors (psychologists) & lobbying groups. It is by exposing them, making their lives miserable & targeting their audience. Never never argue with a paid BS vendor. Gabish? https://twitter.com/learnfromerror/status/1150287002027397120 Permalink 2:33 PM – 14 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Unlike correlation, Mutual Information scales to noise. Shows how correlation of .63 is half the information of .795! pic.twitter.com/XJjHmhk9pQ Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Jul 2019 @nntaleb As to language: stop the intellectual fraud. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c?source=post_stats_page————————— Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Some philology: Ehden does not come from Paradise or Gan Eden with a (ע), but from Adon (same root as Adonis). pic.twitter.com/QrlP71tZ6q Permalink 10:19 AM – 14 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Food is Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Traditional dress in Lebanon is East Med/Balkan not “Arab” Music in Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Genetics in Leb are East Med not “Arab” Language in Leb is NOT mutually understandable w/Class “Arabic” When will this Arabist fraud stop? pic.twitter.com/GQeueGbOmv Permalink 9:53 AM – 14 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Practically, your excellency @EUAmbLebanon, NO village in Lebanon has an Arabic name. Ehden is from Aramaic. So are ALL other villages in the North, with the exception of a few Greco-Roman names. Let’s stop this Arabism fraud. https://twitter.com/EUAmbLebanon/status/1150315616735301632 Permalink 9:32 AM – 14 Jul 2019 @bmiloy We were observing the overlap between #RWRI crowd and @SS_strength crowd. I got to SS via @nntaleb; Grant got to Antifragile via @CoachRippetoe. The cultures attract: no-nonsense and no tolerance for BS. Permalink 4:43 PM – 13 Jul 2019 @nntaleb This is the very definition of anachronistic bigoteering, a violation of the code of political expression, in Principia Politica. Soon we will ban every document written between the emergence of writing in Sumer and the Obama presidency as tainded with “prejudice”. https://twitter.com/AyannaPressley/status/1146788737923407872 Permalink 12:42 PM – 13 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Something to thicken the plot for @Safaitic: Did Semitic languages go to Ethiopia from Eurasia/the Levant? Ethiopia is clearly a back migration, and a recent one! pic.twitter.com/VPZkLwcWan Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @otrasenda_AC Thank you Maestro, since you started with the IQ debunking I stop using correlación, now using Mutual Information. I’ve been suspecting that correlation had a lot of issues but you out it Crystal clear Permalink 9:45 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Not how markets work. If the stock price surged on the news, it means the price (which had been pricing-in the information way before the announcement) was embedding the expectation of a more severe fine. https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1149943366848843777 Permalink 8:24 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Separate people into 2 categories: prostitutes vs. those who do things for love, like Maestro B. did math for love. Academics are mostly prostitutes working for rank, metrics, prestige, etc. Or playing the system a la @sapinker — @MarcosCarreira helped & wrote an epilogue. Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @nntaleb GENETICS (PROBABILITY) DU JOUR Points that appear equidistant in PCAs the way they are presented should not be! It you translate into Mutual information, you get a different story. A correlation of .5 is a lot closer to .4 than it is to .6 ! pic.twitter.com/XKcDeujOdR Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @EastMedMonitor Nice one answering NeoOttoman false education…. I wonder what % of “Turks” in Turkey has originated from the Mongol invaders? The rest are islamized Christian population! Do the Turks dare to check if their “history” is substantiated by genetics science?@nntaleb any comments? https://twitter.com/pan_naxos/status/1149039774780579840 Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @EastMedMonitor My comment is not to prove anything nationalistic but to say that the people wish good neibourhood relations,peace and stability and basically we are one race genetically in #EastMed .Prejudice,religion and false education turns one against the other Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 2/ Maestro B. lived for math, in a nonacademic way. He had a hearing problem & left academia to do math. Luckily he was close to finishing the book compiling the twitter probability riddles. The book is now finished; to be published thanks to @WolframResearch Pict 2 w before. pic.twitter.com/VxmR5q2Dxg Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @nntaleb A YEAR WITHOUT MAESTRO ALEXANDER B. One Saturday morning, last July when I opened Twitter to engage Maestro Alexander Bogomolny, @CutTheKnotMath, I received a DM from his son saying he was no longer with us. Maestro had built a yuuugely motivated community around his math. Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Never complain about your enemies. You can insult them, anger them, expose them, but never whine about them. Push them to complain about you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @spyrosmakrid Is there a better way to predict the next economic downturn? (see https://fortune.com/2019/07/11/economic-downturn-prediction/ ) By looking at the behavior of business cycles the answer is no https://www.nber.org/cycles.html see also Graph So the best alternative is to accept it https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/why-forecasts-fail-what-to-do-instead/ @nntaleb @mikeharrisNY ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Whm28jd9oK”> pic.twitter.com/Whm28jd9oK Permalink 12:37 AM – 13 Jul 2019 @oldmanjingles And @nntaleb is twitter’s, and the world’s, most overrated. don’t @ me. Permalink 5:28 PM – 12 Jul 2019 @iosif_lazaridis A misrepresentation of our Haak, Lazaridis et al. (2015) study @SmithsonianMag “They particularly latched onto two studies from 2015 which claimed to show … that predatory bands of young men from the Yamnaya culture of the Eurasian steppe swept…” https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-ancient-dna-gets-politicized-180972639/ Permalink 4:24 PM – 12 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:59 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @normonics As @nntaleb has articulated, the existence of localism is related to the identification of what it is that in fact persists. This is related to Whitehead’s fallacy of misplaced concreteness: we confuse the administrative with the actual A town persists longer than a nation. Permalink 10:31 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @CaseyBHead A huge systemic risk that almost no one talks about, except @nntaleb. Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Thanks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1148774867791175680 Permalink 8:43 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I’ve done numerous podcasts w/@EconTalker: each one is about a specific point; you try to go as deep as possible. It’s not about the person but the narrowly defined subject matter. Permalink 7:19 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Although I agree with libertarians on many points, the rich (Epstein) should never have an advantage w/ JUSTICE over a poorer (or weaker) person. Epstein used$$ to hire detectives & bully his victims & the prosecutors. Hence the Acosta deal. Legally. Permalink 6:35 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @ninconanco21 These yutzes need to read @nntaleb. Augustine was half Berber, who are Mediterraneans, not Arabs and not black Africans. https://twitter.com/scottmgreer/status/1149668167674765312 Permalink 6:18 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @nntaleb For those not getting it: he inflicted worse than a double injury, a compound one. The girls were victims of abuse & subsequently the targets of a smear campaign. Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The most loathsome thing abt Epstein: he had detectives probe the lives of the girls who accused him, & reveal embarrassing stories in court. Girls were too scared to testify. This may explain Acosta’s deal. @AlanDersh, as his lawyeer, you must have known about these tactics. Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Jul 2019 @nntaleb It is a mistake to think that science has anything to do with scientists. Science is a mechanism. See SCALE TRANSFORMATION in my new treatise PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hor7fKldad”> pic.twitter.com/Hor7fKldad Permalink 1:20 PM – 11 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Closed to podcasts; except for those with @EconTalker because it can be two-way Socratic. I learned a lot from him. & his audience is v. sophisticated. If your idea doesn’t grow from the conversation it becomes downright marketing. & painful conversation. TV lasts only 3 minutes. Permalink 10:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019 @nntaleb No https://twitter.com/mrbenjohnstone/status/1149353521910878209 Permalink 9:40 AM – 11 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Some people are starting to get from the paper above why psychologists are charlatans https://twitter.com/eduardohorta/status/1102904900768489472?s=20 Permalink 9:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019 @MohajerSia @nntaleb I’ve learned more from reading the Incerto 2X this year than I have from wasting a good portion of my life in formal education. You probably won’t see this tweet but the Incerto helped me learn new ways/tools to better understand my life and the world around me. Permalink 9:07 AM – 11 Jul 2019 @nntaleb New Draft (related to IQ testing): Common Misapplications and Misinterpretations of Correlation in Social “Science” https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ via @academia Permalink 8:24 AM – 11 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Updated my next technical book (Technical Incerto, Vol1). Will soooooon be done. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ via @academia Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jul 2019 @MarcGoldich “Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience.” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/974280945388965888?s=21 https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1149223504652513281 Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Jul 2019 @CTrivalle « La modernité nous inflige un châtiment double : vieillir beau- coup plus tôt et mourir beaucoup plus tard. » (@nntaleb ) Permalink 9:36 AM – 10 Jul 2019 @TulsiGabbard The #1 responsibility our president has is as Commander in Chief. As a soldier for more than 16 years who has deployed twice to the Middle East, I will be ready to be Commander in Chief on day one, and I won’t be listening to the chicken hawks clamoring for more war. #Tulsi2020 pic.twitter.com/YLceDyg5XN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Jul 2019 @nntaleb ENTROPY & GENETIC MAPS The distance between points needs to be scaled differently from correlation methods: covariances do not map to informational distances. We need to redo genetic maps from scratch! @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/OIfNbG0Ka5 Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Salafi sheikh in France is banning French students from studying non-Sharia law as “paganism”. Clearly, EU ketchupbrains, Salafism is not a “religion” but an absorbing law. EU ketchupbrains were fighting “terrorism” when that stuff has been funded by Saudi Barbaria/Qatar. https://twitter.com/breakofmilv/status/1095053726249828357 Permalink 2:45 AM – 10 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The smart thing Trump could do is dump him. https://twitter.com/secretaryacosta/status/1148618148490481664 Permalink 7:04 PM – 9 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Squid ink with @auerswald pic.twitter.com/9PDx1nRAwJ Permalink 5:49 PM – 9 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Guru @GuruAnaerobic has a theory that what makes life easy for predators is that there are suckers who walk around with “Sucker” written on their forehead. Below: both the speaker and the audience. https://twitter.com/NESTInsight/status/1146736084413505536?s=20 Permalink 12:19 PM – 9 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Laibson at a lecture explained how pple are irrational & need nudging: “this is a great investment strategy guaranteed to make money. Yet people don’t invest much, they need nudge”. Didn’t hit him that citizens can detect that such strategy may be a sucker trap for Harvard profs. Permalink 11:45 AM – 9 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Nudging is the most sinister activity whereby IYIs (who can’t find a coconut on a coconut island) manipulate citizens. Much more sinister than outright state control because you don’t know feel the manipulation. People like Laibson and Thaler need to be exposed. https://twitter.com/NESTInsight/status/1146736084413505536 Permalink 11:35 AM – 9 Jul 2019 @nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: You can’t fool entropy measures. Mutual information is nonzero for “uncorrelated” fat tails simply because they are uncorrelated but not independent! Also pulls the MI for a Student cc:@ArthurB pic.twitter.com/5Z4NImxNF0 Permalink 7:27 AM – 9 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Deutsche Bank, a summary: The Robert Rubin Trade. Banking is about hiding tail risks and the accumulation of tail exposures. Claims that it is “safe”. Society pays for the blowups. pic.twitter.com/ob1e3PeeLG Permalink 4:40 AM – 9 Jul 2019 @BiankaB12 One of the more valuable lessons I’ve learned in school is that degrees without erudition are not worth the paper they were printed on. Later in life, @nntaleb confirmed this axiom, and his work helped change the course of my life in a lot of ways. https://medium.com/@BiankaB12/on-education-an-institutionalized-destruction-of-virtues-1ba7fd57e3f9 Permalink 4:15 AM – 9 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Random order https://twitter.com/junkiedragon/status/1148368675608682496 Permalink 4:13 PM – 8 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 2/ Epstein claims his activity is “Managing money for people with net worth > 1 bil”. DUBIOUS. Family office not an easy business; very unprofitable, people underpaid: billionaires have zillions of financiers watching their money. Plus the customer base is narrow. Permalink 1:57 PM – 8 Jul 2019 @nntaleb I once drove Mandelbrot to Epstein’s mansion in NY. Had never heard of him & nobody else knew him yet Epstein was a publicity hog. Warned M. maybe laundering or mafia, not finance, shd avoid him. There are financiers who leave no footprint but those never have public life. https://twitter.com/libertyblitz/status/1148290935148535808 Permalink 11:28 AM – 8 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Those who believe that “statistically the least educated vote Conservative.” means “the most intelligent” need some real world education. https://twitter.com/profamirattaran/status/1148268855413944323 Permalink 10:18 AM – 8 Jul 2019 @nntaleb PHILOLOGY yawmiyyé Min wén jéyé klmét “tfingé”? Ma 3am lé2é masdara. Permalink 6:33 AM – 8 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Interventionistas (Iraq, Lybia, Syria) such as Thomas Friedman (@tomfriedman @NYT), thanks to industrial scale, have each caused more deaths than any artisanal serial killer. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1148203732720672774 Permalink 6:21 AM – 8 Jul 2019 @john_f_hamer A CELEBRATION OF WHAT WORKS: A conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, and why stated beliefs habitually fail to reveal underlying preferences. https://apple.co/2GQWrY4 @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wp2rrXPYAR”> pic.twitter.com/Wp2rrXPYAR Permalink 5:09 AM – 8 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Here is are probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww/videos Permalink 4:03 AM – 8 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Here is my probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww https://twitter.com/Capeya1/status/1146239661079171072 Permalink 3:51 AM – 8 Jul 2019 @nntaleb This is mostly noise. But read the “correlation” buzzwords BS to see how “Phd” pple don’t know how to think. https://twitter.com/aedmans/status/1147494932183179264 Permalink 4:53 PM – 7 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Incidentally, the country IQ for Lebanon is total fraud. It was designed by a fraudulent group [see tweets]. Even proxies don’t compute, since math education level is higher than Western Europe. Permalink 9:47 AM – 7 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Bed of Procrustes, 2nd ed. Permalink 5:56 AM – 7 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Determination https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1147674538324267008 Permalink 6:24 PM – 6 Jul 2019 @nntaleb IQ testing is like making cars compete in a racetrack, and use it to make claims about their ability to cross a dense forest (with unpaved roads) such as the Amazon. Permalink 5:07 PM – 6 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Crossing my fingers. I have some Champagne ready for the day when Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/GarethPorter/status/1147606311326158850 Permalink 1:50 PM – 6 Jul 2019 @nntaleb If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright. Permalink 8:28 AM – 6 Jul 2019 @nntaleb So Thanks to Maestro @ArmandDAngour we can surmise that people at the hippodrome of Tyre, Lebanon, were shouting “Eλα!” centuries before the very notion of “ya alla” and monotheism could have reached them. @Jonassibony pic.twitter.com/A5TeCJI72E Permalink 5:47 AM – 6 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Ma 7ada min jdudak 7kyo lfs7a, la bin 2arib, w la min b3id. Permalink 5:40 AM – 6 Jul 2019 @nntaleb LOCALISM,1 Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. Ministries & agencies aren’t run by ministers & transitory figureheads, but by a “deep local microstate” of civil servants who have been there for decades & “own” the inside. Worse: EPA was run by Monsanto, FAA by Boeing. Permalink 5:02 AM – 6 Jul 2019 @nntaleb In today’s ultra-differentiated ecosystem, being a PROBABILIST is a valuable specialization. It’s all applied nonstandard statistics. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1005490626195017728 Permalink 2:21 PM – 5 Jul 2019 @TulsiGabbard 94,379 unique donors! Keep spreading the word and RT to share with friends. Become a debate donor and help bring our voice to the 3rd debates! http://tulsi.to/the-debates Permalink 12:40 PM – 5 Jul 2019 @MatthiasGalvin If there’s one thing I’ve learned from @nntaleb it’s that understanding probability theory is yuuuuuugely more useful than understanding tools of statistics Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Jul 2019 @BryanAccra “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:08 AM – 5 Jul 2019 @yvespatte “It is vastly more respectable to come to politics rich than come out of it rich” “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connection imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer” – @nntaleb “Principia Politica” https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/lesoirplus/status/1146823037209198598 Permalink 1:30 AM – 5 Jul 2019 @nntaleb More details from real world (finance) applications. Genetics data are Gaussian, making the transformation more robust. pic.twitter.com/FsiWBK28Xt Permalink 4:17 PM – 4 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The Romanian Orthodox Church ows me 2 (re)conversions, at least. https://twitter.com/t_wordy/status/1146873927391514625 Permalink 1:23 PM – 4 Jul 2019 @QuincyMckall @nntaleb explains this better I can https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1015276380416770048?s=19 Permalink 1:08 PM – 4 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Shermer, fucking fabricator, you are trying to divert from the fact that the review is about ANOTHER book, skin in the game, which was done in Skeptic AFTER I exposed you as a charlatan. It is an ethical violation to use a journal to settle scores. An ethical violation. Permalink 8:48 AM – 4 Jul 2019 @LebaneseAlefBet Stop Abusing the Lebanese Language, in Lebanese we say LEBNÉNIYÉ not LEBNÉNIYÍN. https://twitter.com/ChristelleNehm4/status/1145624918052225025 Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Trying genetic maps: they are misinterpreted. “Linear correlation” is nonlinear to information. But a trick for rescaling works when data is Gaussian. cc @ArthurB pic.twitter.com/LC9BhWVx8J Permalink 7:19 AM – 4 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Il dormire fa come il mangiare (Qui dort dine) Dig deep and all these sayings are Med and #lindy https://twitter.com/Spfannenschmidt/status/1146783770512625667 Permalink 7:16 AM – 4 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Eddie Hall @eddiehallWSM who deadlifted >1000lbs lost weight! Apparently without too much effort. Easier to go from strong and fat to strong and fit than from skinny (or skinny fat) to fit. pic.twitter.com/llQWq2oBwg Permalink 5:57 AM – 4 Jul 2019 @TalebWisdom “The problem with academics is that they really think that nonacademics find them more intelligent than themselves.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:36 AM – 4 Jul 2019 @Sweetvinny1 Harris and Pinker make monstrous errors and Taleb catches them red handed (with documentation, you know, math, that don’t lie) and they attack his personality not his rebuttal and you support it, you fucking half wit. Permalink 4:01 AM – 4 Jul 2019 @Rhiju “boring is the only very bad thing for a book.” – @nntaleb (You can read this one a hundred times & discover something new everytime) http://amzn.in/1rZ9iwx ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6fIVTL5ybV”> pic.twitter.com/6fIVTL5ybV Permalink 11:55 PM – 3 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Hammurabi’s code: false accusers are to be treated as if they committed the violation themselves. #skininthegame #symmetry https://twitter.com/assalehamer/status/1146557975844179968 Permalink 4:29 PM – 3 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Having lunch with a vegan fellow. He challenged me: produce solid research and he would change his mind. Solution: asked him to follow @Mangan150 for 40 days as well as the conversation around his posts. Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The larger the corporation, the more likely it will try to screw citizens. Your local butcher, barber, grocer, and baker aren’t in the business of lobbying/manipulating science. Monsanto, Weapons makers, Pharma live off coersion, manipulation of science, & propaganda #Corporatism Permalink 8:28 AM – 3 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 2) Monoculture & linguistic formalism cannot be maintained without state coersion. 2nd French Nobel in Literature was to Frederic Mistral who wrote in Provencal. The process started by Jules Ferry managed to get it extinct. Micronationalism (Catalan, Basque) is just localism Permalink 7:13 AM – 3 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Fascism is an absorbing identity: Napoleonic killing all local languages/cultures; Italian unification, Franco, Ataturk. Worst is “Arabism”. + Monoculture + Centralized state + State defined “identity” via “educated elite” + Nonfractal https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica @QifaNabki Permalink 5:15 AM – 3 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Michael Shermer you published a review of #SkinInTheGame in YOUR journal AFTER I exposed you of a charlatan/intellectual fraud. It is unethical: you should reveal that you are using your journal for such purposes. UNETHICAL. Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1146202975200784385?s=20 Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Jul 2019 @nntaleb OK, OK, after all this procratination time to finish the work on the formalization of the #Lindy effect pic.twitter.com/XTVQNvTtws Permalink 5:28 PM – 2 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Shermer doesn’t get that when someone is called charlatan, & it is true, best strategy for @michaelshermer is to stay quiet. People may then scrutinize his “empiricism” & MY claims. & Using one’s journal for personal retaliation is an ethical violation. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1146169906666151937?s=20 Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Jul 2019 @fractalharry Ce moment magique de Twitter où une personne like mon tweet et c’est mon auteur favori @nntaleb auquel j’étais très exactement en train de penser en ecrivant ce même tweet ! (Cf notion de iatrogénie notamment expliquée dans Antifragile.) pic.twitter.com/u9Vc08UC4j Permalink 12:38 PM – 2 Jul 2019 @nntaleb The journalist Pinker @sapinker, while posing for an arbiter of statistical truths, mistakes data for anecdotes and anecdotes for data. Nobody illustrates pseudo-empiricism better than him & that other charlatan @michaelshermer Anecdotes vs statistical significance https://twitter.com/LorenzoWVilla/status/1145815737925345280 Permalink 12:13 PM – 2 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Answer with Monte Carlo to illustrate pic.twitter.com/TTVWkZ7tdA Permalink 11:16 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @nntaleb If the Iliad survived, it is precisely because it is not summarizable. #Lindy https://twitter.com/shaarsh2/status/1146113480577208320 Permalink 10:49 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ThomasJefferson #liberty #independenceday #GOAT pic.twitter.com/KBD96ZnEy4 Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @TheDefenderA My reading choices have changed drastically since reading Incerto. Books by doers (unless it’s a novel, and isn’t a New Age fable i.e. Coelho). Via negtiva – no books by career professors or journalists (w very limited exceptions). Any philosophy – Lindy. Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Political discussions violate rigor/ethics. No matter how much you hate Trump, never blame him for stuff for which you didn’t blame others. The code of ethics is in PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/brandondarby/status/1146045973535309825 Permalink 7:54 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @jadabdala Touristification of minds on the way from Athens to Berytus. In the photos – Tourist 1 – Tourist 2 (Coelho, plz no) – Me (fuck you tourists) pic.twitter.com/YTLK2kxgYc Permalink 5:20 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @nntaleb 2) The entropy/information theory approach to correlation is mutual information, similar to Kelly criterion: How much can I bet on the value of Y knowing X? If Y certain (ρ=1), infinite. If ρ=½, tiny. All IQ psychology is worthless. Permalink 4:36 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @hhlahoud It’s amazing how many words we say, are Syriac in origin! Example: ِدِيرْ=ܕܝܪ =direct بال= ܒܳܐܠܳ = mind زَلمي= ܙܰܠܳܡܳܐ= a fellow Lebanese: ! ديرْ بالك من ها الزَلمي Arabic: ! كن حذراً من هذا الشخص English: Beware of this fellow! Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @nntaleb DataScience 101 #RWRI showed how elementary but nonlinear concepts like “correlation” are poorly understood by pros. One needs to translate ρ into information. See how ρ= ½ is much closer to 0 than to a ρ=1. Yuuge diff betw .9 & .99 Psychologists cluelss for 50 years. 1/n pic.twitter.com/pvnCKJrIwu Permalink 4:32 AM – 2 Jul 2019 @nntaleb On second thoughts, yuuuuuuuuge caution is needed. There is no foreign “revolution” that Soros did not like… So I wonder about this policy. Plus some individuals can be suspect… So guarded optimism. http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/july/01/shocker-charles-koch-and-george-soros-to-team-up-and-form-foreign-policy-institute/ Permalink 3:05 PM – 1 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1145768968168333312 Permalink 12:22 PM – 1 Jul 2019 @DanielLMcAdams Excellent analytical point. https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1145757977548402695 Permalink 11:19 AM – 1 Jul 2019 @nntaleb QUIZ on IQ interpretation I wish some IQ psychologist could walk away from the verbalism BS and answer it. pic.twitter.com/IOR6miRIN3 Permalink 11:08 AM – 1 Jul 2019 @RonPaulInstitut Trump Meets Kim In North Korea – Why Are The Democrats Hysterical? – today on the Liberty Report: http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/july/01/trump-meets-kim-in-north-korea-why-are-the-democrats-hysterical/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7Ce0rEOkxg”> pic.twitter.com/7Ce0rEOkxg Permalink 10:28 AM – 1 Jul 2019 @nntaleb So as Maestro @ArmandDAngour has shown Έλα! has been present in Greek 1200 years before the language now called Arabic reached the Med. The distinction “ya alla” and “yalla” is obvious from noncorrelated usage. https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/1145225927930068992 Permalink 3:46 AM – 1 Jul 2019 @nntaleb Who needs an IQ test when you can detect someone’s coherence, intellectual depth, and ability to reason without circularity in… a single tweet? https://twitter.com/DarrenJBeattie/status/1145529656931758084 Permalink 3:01 AM – 1 Jul 2019 @matthewglickman Please retweet to help #findmaxchung highschooler missing now for 12 days https://twitter.com/nypdmissing/status/1140954238748635136 Permalink 5:51 PM – 30 Jun 2019 @nntaleb Sign me up! Noninterventionism >>> everything else @tparsi https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1145410888612175872 Permalink 1:43 PM – 30 Jun 2019 @nntaleb People don’t get that a publisher in NY selling books written in NY to readers in NY but printing in China needs to obey Chinese censorship. Most annoying is that publishers and authors were wimps: I was the ONLY one to stand up. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book Permalink 1:01 PM – 30 Jun 2019 @nntaleb Here is my piece on the circularity of tests among other problems: testing is good for testtakers https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 11:04 AM – 30 Jun 2019 @nntaleb Ther’s a serious mathematical mistake in the podcast. If you give more time to the tortoises you will still get a bell curve. The top 10% will have a different composition, fewer hares. You can’t get 20% in the top 10%: the bell curve is normalized. Otherwise @gladwell is right. https://twitter.com/BigTimHerron/status/1145367373941215233 Permalink 10:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019 @nntaleb Globalization pic.twitter.com/ar0NsBX0Rg Permalink 9:49 AM – 30 Jun 2019 @Jaffer22915438 1) Real World Business & Marketing: What follows is a Tweetstorm that are real life lessons learned the hard way. This is a mini real world entrepreneurial guide. I included links to blog posts when appropriate. Inspired by RWRI & @nntaleb Permalink 8:44 AM – 30 Jun 2019 @nntaleb Wilson justifiably called @RichardDawkins a “journalist”. Dawkins doesn’t understand complicated probabilistic processes. But he is good at bullshitting & swaying the public. https://twitter.com/UtilaTheEcon/status/1145226870717177856 Permalink 4:09 AM – 30 Jun 2019 @PabloinSilence Lo recomiendo de @nntaleb, muy en línea ( Principios 1, 3 y 10): https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica La fraternidad no tanto como un elemento de una terna sino como una escala necesaria en la organización política. Uno de los errores sería asumir q las políticas son “libres de escala”. Permalink 2:43 AM – 30 Jun 2019 @alxpr1c3 same as Nassim’s “it’s ok to confuse a stone for a bear; not a bear for a stone.” https://twitter.com/KVdP_vliegt/status/1145058876326383617 Permalink 1:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019 @digvijoy_c https://news.bitcoin.com/why-bitcoiners-are-turning-to-unschooling-for-decentralized-education/ people who get localism and decentralization just seek it everywhere . #homeschool Permalink 7:45 PM – 29 Jun 2019 @JamesMarsh79 Modern Science Could Hit Roundup Maker Monsanto Where It Hurts – Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-28/modern-science-could-hit-roundup-maker-monsanto-where-it-hurts Permalink 5:38 PM – 29 Jun 2019 @nntaleb Only 1% of people in desk professions understand their subject matter. But 99% of prostitutes understand prostitution. #RWRI 11 (#ExpertProblem) Permalink 2:03 PM – 29 Jun 2019 @KVdP_vliegt On my way back home from #RWRI reading @rorysutherland great book Alchemy and just read below quote. It re-iterates @nntaleb point that it is always rational to be paranoic. pic.twitter.com/DQYvhuTVVL Permalink 12:58 PM – 29 Jun 2019 @imleslahdin I wanna thank all the people I met at #RWRI: @nntaleb for making it happen. @Mehdi_IR_DC & @chasechandler for their time. Special thanks to @trishankkarthik for always challenging/embarrassing me and to @famadeo for saving me face All others on and off twitter that I forgot. Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Jun 2019 @nntaleb Philology du jour (more): Yalla! in Lebanese (let’s go!, come!) comes from Έλα! Permalink 9:48 AM – 29 Jun 2019 @nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 14 That funding causes innovation. False. Innovation brings funding. Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Jun 2019 @JackConnorWoo Still buzzing from #RWRI. Can’t describe in words how intellectually satisfying this course is, nor how good it feels to be around such smart people like @normonics @NiloufarKhavari @diomavro and of course the incredible @nntaleb. But I’m going to try, blog post (coming soon). Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jun 2019 @nntaleb Philology du jour: The Lebanese Tshbi7 (shabba7) تشبيح comes from the Canaanite/Phoenician שבח, to praise, glorify (teshba7to moryo in Syriac= Praise the Lord). Its current meaning is “produce hot air” or “pontification with extreme exaggeration”. Permalink 6:03 AM – 29 Jun 2019 @amconmag “At the end of the Cold War, we were the lone superpower. Who forfeited our preeminence? Who bled us of 7,000 U.S. lives and$6 trillion in endless wars? Who got us into this Cold War II? Was all this the doing of those damnable isolationists again?” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/memo-to-trump-trade-bolton-for-tulsi/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@mdvex Corporatism is not capitalism. The true cost hasn’t been paid yet. Corporatism is politically postponed bankruptcy. Permalink 2:19 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@caitoz The Forever War Is So Normalized That Opposing It Is “Isolationism” “Under our current Orwellian doublespeak paradigm where forever war is the new normal, the opposite of war is no longer peace, but isolationism.” #war #peace #TulsiGabbard https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/the-forever-war-is-so-normalized-that-opposing-it-is-isolationism-8b4062aed18b   Permalink 6:33 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@YoungSandboxer Unbelievable week #RWRI. Couldn’t recommend more Met intellektual hero of many years @nntaleb, as well as @trishankkarthik & others passionate about complexity + risk So much new knowledge—but the funny thing is, I am even more curious about this stuff than before the class! Permalink 4:12 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik And now, organically-developed heuristics from #RWRI attendees Let’s look at some old ones: “The world is more fat-tailed than you think.” Permalink 1:09 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@diomavro @nntaleb @trishankkarthik, say we should be concave to passwords. And hackers can’t take riskless pictures. #RWRI. pic.twitter.com/FqK93jfjot Permalink 12:38 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin “If you wanna start Data Science from scratch, start with Information Theory.” -Nassim Taleb @nntaleb #rwri #datascience Permalink 9:08 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Machine learning pic.twitter.com/I70lrsBRnM Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Aerospace pic.twitter.com/tokAvk3lal Permalink 6:31 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@diomavro @trishankkarthik trying to convince us that his bald head is more elegant than Russels axioms. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/dUvEuuCc53 Permalink 11:10 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik “A probability distribution cannot tell you if the realization belongs to it.” Permalink 9:24 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb tawking about how the Masquerade problem (you can reject but not prove something is a Gaussian) is related to Gödelian self-reference… #RWRI Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@Jaffer22915438 I wrote a blog post on the plane based on a question Nassim asked me at #RWRI . I will proof tomorrow snd post. Topic? Facebook fraud. Stay tuned Permalink 12:48 PM – 26 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Rule 110 (by @stephen_wolfram) discussed by @financequant #RWRI pic.twitter.com/PfU4QatfPV Permalink 8:41 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@diomavro Raphael interrupting @normonics, and @nntaleb trolling him #RWRI pic.twitter.com/QlxYgorjq5 Permalink 7:26 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Furthermore, such a program should also compensate those who did not borrow. And charge the universities and real estate developers for the costs of the bailout. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1143585114968010752   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@paulanawfal Merely two days have passed and I have already learned so much. Let’s see what the next three days shall hold @nntaleb #rwri_11 pic.twitter.com/QEokhcFD0T Permalink 6:01 PM – 25 Jun 2019

@sergesapiens 4m post #RWRI10. If you accept @nntaleb maths anchored in the real world, put your skin in the #RWRI game! As much as you think you’ve got it, you‘ll learn some more and you’ll root yourself deeper in the moat with immediate benefits. Permalink 4:14 AM – 25 Jun 2019

@phl43 In 2008, Science published a paper which found that conservatives had a stronger physiological response to threat (which has since been cited more than 500 times), then more recently desk-rejected a failed replication with a sample size 4 times as large https://slate.com/technology/2019/06/science-replication-conservatives-liberals-reacting-to-threats.amp   Permalink 1:34 PM – 24 Jun 2019

@PaulSkallas I remember when I attended. You leave drained. Beat up. The benefits come later. Parts of it stick with you. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1143190040153153537   Permalink 1:29 PM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI in new location, RWRI-11 pic.twitter.com/whI5DOpZxJ Permalink 9:11 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Hawks are low-intellect, low-experience, low-skills people; if laid off, unusable in real-life, not even to wash you car. The absence of the #skininthegame filtering degrades decision-making. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1143011525684322305   Permalink 2:55 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb So, far, thanks to twitter, the definition is improving. pic.twitter.com/yfK6QKuoaY Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, please tear apart my definition of verbalism. pic.twitter.com/zvDhPcW78X Permalink 7:40 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb FOR DISCUSSION, some definitions: Xenophobia ⧣ racism, even if it correlates. Xenophobia has gradations from indirect (homophilia/love for your family) to direct (state borders). Racism=considering that some races have, genetically, INFERIOR intellectual or moral attributes. Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: Skin in the Game is not, as Nudgeboy Thaler @R_Thaler & that picklebrain @CFCamerer say, an incentive that makes you perform better. It is, simply, a filter that operates on the collective. https://twitter.com/ArthurB/status/1142719660812591104   Permalink 3:17 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@maxmarotti Important discovery at Amioun #Lebanon by LEB-ITA archeological team coordinated by Universita’ Udine @uniud & funded by @ItalyMFA . Amioun now proven an inhabited city since early bronze age , 3300 BC . @nntaleb @ItalyinLebanon pic.twitter.com/C5RQukAbXv Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@LieraMarco The dignity of a Mediterranean man selling his crops in Southern Italy. For centuries these people have taken care of themselves regardless of economic “growth” 1/2 ⁦@nntaleb⁩ pic.twitter.com/YgXP5O2LQc Permalink 3:56 PM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb An example of retrospective bigoteering: flowing today’s standards backward in time, and not realizing it. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1142431943352623104   Permalink 9:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@Neanderthoughts Yes, making explicit the criteria for exposing hidden assumptions in “verbalism” is essential for minimizing political insanity. Especially now with inflammatory social media. Permalink 7:36 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For some obscure reason Italian archeologists are interested in Amioun my ancestral village! Progetto Archeologico Libano Settentrionale (PALiS/ NoLeP) https://youtu.be/DecPfJbzWE4   via @YouTube Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto is here! Very heavy, you can use for exercise. pic.twitter.com/8kvZbUaMYI Permalink 5:56 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Nobody understand what “racism” & “xenophobia” mean. Everything is SCALE dependent. Arab tribes slaughter groups > (say) 5, welcome groups <5 with yuuge hospitality. Get rid of verbalism in Principia (next book). Avoid Pol Sci/Journo BS. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uAIzMDmJ7R”>  pic.twitter.com/uAIzMDmJ7R Permalink 5:47 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@diomavro Alright its takeoff time! Going to NY to attend #RWRI for 5 days! Excited to meet @nntaleb in person. Talebs books helped me embrace my Mediterranean attitude and put me back on the Orthodox trail. Hopefully will also get to meet some of the crew I’ve been stalking. Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) From experiene, I can’t find any (nonweight bearing) exercise that makes you go all out and raises the heart rate as much as running uphill (on a mild hill). And it is exhilarating. Permalink 5:08 PM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb TOPIC FOR DISCUSSION: Run a mile in mildly hilly terrain at least once a week, as fast as you can. Make sure you run completely out of breath on the local top of the hill. Do not run an inch more. Never slowly. Discuss. @GuruAnaerobic @VergilDen Permalink 5:01 PM – 21 Jun 2019

@Wayland_J_Blue @nntaleb you preach statistics in Homeric language. You helped me to understand that what the ancients lacked in sophistry, they had in wisdom 77 fold Permalink 10:40 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@willchamberlain Bush administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Iraq War Obama administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Libyan intervention And they have the chutzpah to critique Trump for CALLING OFF an Iran strike? Lunatics Permalink 7:06 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People with skin in the game are fundamentally localist. Empty suits in DC are not. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Some clarity: DEFENSE is when you defend your country at, or near, your borders. Not when you fight people several time zones away. Find another name for this “DEFENSE” spending. Permalink 3:04 PM – 20 Jun 2019

@antemachina “La modélisation ne peut pas être illimitée, car quelle que soit la vitesse et l’architecture de traitement de données d’un ordinateur, l’augmentation des dimensions à paramétrer excède assez vite toute possibilité de calcul.” Sur l’IA. Personne ne va retweeter ce message. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Social scientists use correlation not knowing what it means. Then they say they are “empirical”. pic.twitter.com/eKYodnjxxq Permalink 11:24 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb All psychology is effectively useless. A correlation of .35, even when not circular, reduces uncertainty by 0 adjusting the noise & error propagation. https://twitter.com/meistrephilipos/status/1141541837339090944   Permalink 11:13 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists are spreading a post “debunking my empirical claims” saying “but there is correlation”. They aren’t smart enough to get my claim that data has “correlation”. But It’s meaningless, circular, noisy, nonadditive & under nonlinearitiees, fails. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 11:07 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@yaneerbaryam How can we prevent ethnic violence? Instead of forcing people to move so that they are mixed or separated, introducing well-defined boundaries that allow for more local autonomy can enable peaceful coexistence. #WorldRefugeeDay https://necsi.edu/solving-ethnic-violence   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/noIZtUHvtJ”>  pic.twitter.com/noIZtUHvtJ Permalink 9:33 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@manukankani One of the best explanation on socialism and capitalism in one minute by @naval cc: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/LvFd5s3I1z Permalink 1:14 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@Mangan150 Strange how following mainstream health advice like eating plant-based, using seed oils, avoiding the sun, and taking a statin will turn you into a shell of a human being. Can that be a coincidence? Permalink 6:54 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “Never argue with people in private (you will not convince them); argue in public to convince others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 3:39 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Seed oil is not #Lindy. As with transfats idiots are still using it as “healthy alternative”, particularly in France. Even in Belgium they use it as replacement for tallow. Same mistake twice! https://twitter.com/blakeburris/status/1141404419231113216   Permalink 3:36 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@drjasonfung An Anti-Aging Pill? Think Twice https://nyti.ms/2FkqSq5   Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The best training you can offer yourself is detecting circularity. It teaches you to think not just forward in 2nd, 3rd steps, but backward in minus 1st, 2nd steps, etc. Modernity is full of circularities (education, citation rings, journalism, classifications, IQ, psychology…) Permalink 6:00 AM – 19 Jun 2019

@EHSANI22 This book catalogues how a significant part of spoken Arabic in #Aleppo #Syria is originally Assyrian / Aramaic This also covers many the small towns and villages including Afrin , Manbej, Shougour and Ma’ara (All are Assyrian / Aramaic words) The total list is astounding pic.twitter.com/AEbdafgq83 Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I am honored to be on the U.S. watchlist. https://twitter.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1140980698486120448   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Most frequent comments when I run into someone: 1) Are you “working on” another book? No, it’s all one book. All Merged. And it’s not work 2) You look thinner in person than in pictures 3) You seem much, much less of an asshole than in your Twitter feed Permalink 5:03 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists there are frauds. This is the type of work they do. They just show the resulting plot line. pic.twitter.com/3jqftuP116 Permalink 4:59 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Weeks away from shipping Incerto (5-volume Hardcover Box Set) https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_d1mcDbXQGB9AF   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb FORECASTING SHOULD BE IN REAL LIFE Foreword for the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition. We are now working on the M5 competition which should be the mother of all forecasting checks! pic.twitter.com/IGdS7U2iy3 Permalink 3:36 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb In other words, if you took 2 IQ tests there will be a variation. Such variation is BIGGER than the one you’d get from the effect ! (Not counting the circularity that good test takers tend to get degrees so they get some jobs without necessarily performing better). FRAUD Permalink 3:12 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The article is a (naive) fraud. They show a line, not a cloud of points so we don’t see the variance & the gaming. But these idiots (psychologists) proved the following: if in spite of the circularity, the diff betw 55 and 130 is so small for the variance, IQ is just hot air. https://twitter.com/ROBERTO_COLOM/status/1140707195161645056   Permalink 1:52 PM – 17 Jun 2019

@SeyyAli_Mirzaei #Proud to speak @googlecloud on the importance of being #AntiFragile (@nntaleb) learning/growing from chaos at @gcdcislamabad @TensorFlow @googledevs. Thrilled & inspired to see more #women in #Tech space in #Pakistan. T-shirt reads: “Less gender roles, more paratha rolls!” https://twitter.com/CynthiaDRitchie/status/1140671573277495296   Permalink 10:46 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@gbponz Rep. Tulsi Gabbard opposes impeachment and dislikes identity politics. And she’s running for president, writes @mtracey https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-hawaii-democrats-surprising-views-11560714036?shareToken=ste65d586625d3416b994206c9783a1b9c   di @WSJ @nntaleb Permalink 6:19 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Incerto so far is 2000 pages long. It is the summary. I doubt there is a shorter summary of the Incerto than the Incerto. Permalink 4:27 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb There’s no such thing as “scientific evidence showing safety” but somethg called “failure to reject” at some significance which was NEVER done for GMOs as Monsanto spent more energy smearing critics than testing. Journalists are carriers of charlatanism. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lhymv1sQdC”>  pic.twitter.com/lhymv1sQdC Permalink 2:22 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This crap was promoted into my feed. If a book can be summarized, it’s not a book but a magazine article; don’t read it and don’t read its summary. https://twitter.com/blinkist/status/1024238241585790976   Permalink 11:42 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Syrians in Lebanon: no advice without skin in the game. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1123192807429169154   Permalink 5:15 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@LieraMarco You don’t need a psychologist to save a guy who wants to commit sucide. A truck driver is much more effective. @nntaleb https://milano.corriere.it/19_giugno_16/gabriel-camionista-che-ha-salvato-ragazzo-cavalcavia-non-sono-eroe-0fd25fe0-8fb3-11e9-88d7-b66be71f5fe3.shtml   Permalink 5:12 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@spectatorindex Oldest cities in the world. 1. Jericho, Palestinian Ter. 2. Byblos, Lebanon 3. Aleppo, Syria 4. Damascus, Syria 5. Susa, Iran 6. Faiyum, Egypt 7. Sidon, Lebanon 8. Plovdiv, Bulgaria 9. Gaziantep, Turkey 10. Beirut, Lebanon (Telegraph) Longer list: https://www.instagram.com/p/ByxJ5aQD7CR/   Permalink 3:56 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese government is always accused of racism by first order bigoteers (with no SITG) whenever they discuss the case of Syrian refugees (close to 20–30% of the population), then put on the defensive having to explain “they are not racist, but”. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8?postPublishedType=repub   Permalink 2:49 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Large governments are weapon merchants: UK, US, France, Russia. Foreign “policy” is dictated by weapons manufacturers. The press (@tomfriedman , @BretStephensNYT) are just marketing agents, something effective under the name “democracy”. Which is why we need @TulsiGabbard Permalink 2:07 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@datenverstehen @nntaleb apparently localism is on the rise in UK Permalink 8:01 AM – 15 Jun 2019