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Taleb the Philosopher |

By this point, Taleb has come to view all three works as composing a unified project, which he calls Incerto, about “decision making under uncertainty.” The central idea of Antifragile is that risk, volatility, or turbulence is in many cases not to be feared and avoided, but desired and sought. Taleb claims to have identified a new concept: Whereas fragile things are harmed by shocks, and robust things are resilient or unharmed, what is antifragile actually benefits from shocks. A related concept and characteristic Talebism: What is “Lindy” is likely to survive a long time because it has already survived a long time—named after a ­Manhattan restaurant where actors observed the phenomenon in ­Broadway runs.
Hattip Dave Lull

Tetlock, Propagandists, Lebanon, #IndiaEconomicConclave, Villages, Pinker, TENURE, J’ACCUSE, #RiadPonzi, Bret Weinstein, #Localism, GMOs, Arabists, Aramco, Lebanon

On the Statistical Differences between BinaryForecasts and Real World Payoffs (pdf)
The Beirut Banyan EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon (audio, Soundcloud)

@nntaleb BS Busting Showing how ~50 years of psychologists/decisiontheoristas claims that people “irrationally” “overestimate tails” are unrigorous; how being a “good forecaster” means nothing,etc. Some (e.g. Phil the rat @PTetlock) won’t like it Full version at   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:25 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Mediocre minds are outraged by small insults but passive, subdued, and silent in front of very large ones. ” – From Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 4:31 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) I had a bit of a lucky start to my day today seeing this thread. Nassim’s solution – though a solution in a tweet! – is a terrific lesson for calculus students as it is a fantastic use of both the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and also infinite series.   Permalink 3:27 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2:16 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb MATH PUZZLE DU JOUR. For my trip back from India. Permalink 3:09 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Modern dialects called “Arabic” do not descend from “Classical Arabic”, but both they and Fus7a share a common parent; Fus7a appears to be larely manufactured by a bunch of scholars. It is like mistaking your cousin for your grandfather.   Permalink 3:01 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This is, scientifically, fraud. I mean, really fraud.   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Kids get that Antifragile = Convexity. Social scientists can’t get it.   Permalink 11:18 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb He did not get skin in the game. It is filtering. So many people discuss ideas from books they haven’t read. — h/t @imleslahdin   Permalink 9:06 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@marco_m_alves Localism is not “peace on earth” as it creates much more “inconvenient’ day to day (corruption is more visible, disputes are direct, etc). But it’s the trade-off for avoiding system-wide collapse. Permalink 11:17 PM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Granted!   Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb My former student is correct to bring me into line. Propagandists are unconditional in their support, never nuanced, even with the most eggregious actions. And thet are eventually caught. Like now.   Permalink 8:45 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE EAST-MED PHILOLOGY “Spice”, μπαχαρικό (Bahariko) in Greek, بهارات (Bharat) in Levantine (not so much in Classical Ar), and baharat in Turkish originate from the old name for India: Bharat. Simply, the Med had no spices, only herbs. Permalink 8:37 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@yzilber Confusion can help learning   @nntaleb will like this study (2012) Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The way to do it.   Permalink 5:50 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb How to rescale distances on PCA maps for genetics. @WolframResearch Mathematica Code with verification Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will give it a second look.   Permalink 2:30 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@CCavafy “But most incomparable / of all, Antioch boasts that she’s a city / that’s been Greek since Ancient times” – C.P. Cavafy, “Greek Since Ancient Times”, translated by @DAMendelsohnNYC #poetry #cavafy #Greece Permalink 5:05 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:04 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam New paper “An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and its Applications”–“assumes only a high school mathematical and scientific background, so that it may be accessible to … anyone who is interested in systems and society”   Permalink 4:45 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #bureaucracy Permalink 8:50 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb These pseudo-analysts don’t get it. The majority of French & British voters had a yuuuugely favorable opinion about De Gaulle & Churchill respectively but still voted them out of office right after the war ended.   Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you hear “X is incompetent in spite of “elite” education”, you should interpret as “X is incompetent *because* of “elite” education” (Wittgenstein’s Ruler)   Permalink 4:16 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@Nvdwaa Rereading antifragile, my 1st encounter with @nntaleb after about 4years. Discovering depth I missed/ didn’t appreciate 1st time around. Amazing, life-changing stuff. Permalink 9:07 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie [correcting bad link] Exploring Markov chains and Martingales with kids – a project inspired by @gregeganSF @nntaleb and @octonion   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:50 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb His wife left him.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Bad way to visualize information, in the absence of scaling/size. If Rome/Papal States, Istanbul, Beirut were countries, They too… The web teaches people to become fools a la social scientists.   Permalink 5:01 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Brutal honesty and intolerance to BS brings new friends.   Permalink 4:24 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Decorators design to impress other decorators. In the MEA lounge, the electric plugs are out of reach, low on the ground, with the cover opening upwards ; impossible to plug the charger unless you lie on the floor. @skyteam please tell these idiots. #SkinintheGame Permalink 2:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@DavidGibbons “Every plane crash makes the next one less likely, every bank crash makes the next one more likely.” From Antifragile. Maybe my favorite @nntaleb quote – certainly a most important insight. We have built antifragile things but banking is not one of them. Permalink 1:12 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@LieraMarco Will he ever invite real people (i.e. plumbers, taxi drivers, accountants, etc.) to speak at the @wef in Davos? @nntaleb   Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@ETNOWlive Tell us what is the #Nifty return this decade in the comments section and get a chance to win a signed copy of the latest books by @MarkMobiusReal, @SadhguruJV, and @nntaleb. #IndiaEconomicConclave #IEC #quiz #IEC2019 Permalink 12:29 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Liars announce that they are saying the “truth”, without anyone asking them; shills claim they are promoting it. (Remember that “Pravda”, the Soviet organ, meant “truth”) Permalink 2:27 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Auditing Mathematica’s conventions Permalink 2:07 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Which explains why there cannot be such a thing as a global village: you build stronger bonds by meeting one person 5 times than by meeting 5 persons once. Permalink 1:06 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 2) Do you live in a village? Simple trick: how many familiar faces do you encounter daily in your surroundings? Permalink 12:14 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Karagoz/Karakoz in Lebanese   Permalink 12:04 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I never live in cities. Only villages. #localism   Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Another person I thought was revealing truths turns out to be a shill. Disgusting.   Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Turns out that what I called the “Karamata point” and the “Karamata Constant”, while obvious, didn’t have a name. Was told Kara-mata was “black eyed” in Ottoman Greek (Kara black in Turkish, Matis eyes in Turko-Greek) Permalink 5:23 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Presented 3 short papers. Turns out this result (and 2 others) are unknown. Permalink 5:18 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile The ‘slow earthquakes’ that we cannot feel may help protect against the devastating ones   Permalink 5:02 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (3/3) I learned these ideas thanks to @nntaleb and @octonion when they were discussing another famous “word” problem – the COVFEFE problem in 2017:   Permalink 3:31 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Eindhoven Workshop on Heavy Tails, with the usual suspects   Permalink 2:53 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@LaurentMartinez Sometimes you’re so obnoxious that I’m really considering muting you. But you so don’t give a f**** and are so uncompromising with (mostly) insufferable a-holes, that I have to admit it makes you a rare and valuable occurrence in this world. Permalink 1:47 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Pinker is not aware that he is promoting my own work: one of the books is plagiarism of the ##Incerto   Permalink 1:34 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Disagreement: #Lindy requires nonperishability but not all nonperishable is #lindy (nonperishable can be memoryless, with constant expected remaining life). Lindy = power law NonPerishable usually exponential. @ProfSteveFuller Here formalizing Lindy   Permalink 12:20 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Trying to define RIGOROUSLY what is and what is not Racism in PRINCIPIA, away from the verbalistic. Some surprising results. For comments Permalink 12:12 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The saying “lniqua numquam regna perpetuo manent” gives me hope. #Lindy #LebanonProtests #IraqiProtests, etc. Permalink 11:33 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb TENURE IS A TRAP After 30 y tenure in a pseudoscience w/citation ring (socialscience),pple can’t do anything in the real world Unskilled Labor! If Universities can’t take away your tenure, they can make your life miserable,as w/bigot @erasmuse. Like the brother in #Antifragile   Permalink 3:34 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “There is no more unmistakable sign of failure than that of a middle-aged man boasting of his successes in college.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:24 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Probability Proof Du Jour From the “Competitive Mathematics” FB page Permalink 2:04 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb More confusion: Mathematica has two techniques. Dot product for normalized vectors is same as covariance (hence 3 and 1 are same). Which method is used? Permalink 1:37 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Note that I blocked people who polluted the thread Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, some help. I have a question about conventions with PCA maps. Permalink 9:38 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@imleslahdin Why I’m excited about Technical Incerto. Understanding tails & “shadow moments” is crucial in when your algorithm relies on randomness, which is the BEST way we have for the hardest problems ever (NP-problems). I’m not even talking about big data & ML/AI (go to #RWRI for that).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:10 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Learned that just as the Latin hard “c” becomes a soft affricate /t͡ʃ/ in Italian (Ciao), in S Mesopotamian dialect ك becomes تش Other shifts:ق hard g in Muslim (vs Jewish/Christian) Bagdadi (qeltu vs gilit group)& ء in Levant   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:53 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JT_ZLC I am suggesting a minor change to the front cover. Permalink 6:39 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Almost. The statistical version of the asymmetry: to confirm safety (trader didn’t blowup), n =1000 could be insufficient, to disconfirm safety, n=1 (trader blewup) is sufficient. My technical version of the asymmetry is by examining the Law of Large Numbers under fat tails.   Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JonathanShedler This is why “evidence based therapy” research always seems to involve treatments most people don’t want and most practitioners don’t practice. Research designed to impress journal reviewers and grant reviewers, not provide what patients need.   Permalink 3:22 PM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb J’ACCUSE Depositors in #LEBANON being stiffed! 1-Payment to Eurobond holders, NOT to depositors, & Not enough $$ for fuel imports 2-Depositors should OWN the banks since default! 3- #RiadPonzi is in denial, must be replaced/supervised Must suspend CEDRE! @Jad_Ghosn @EHSANI22 Permalink 7:51 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS, Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Technical Incerto, I) is done. My 7th book.   Should be available in hard copy first Q 2020 ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:46 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Med Again!   Permalink 4:18 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The eugenics crowd has been after since the when I showed the IQ thingy to be a fraud. You can tell at the reactions of a bunch of people.   Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Time to do my “told you so”. You guys are 1 year too late. @Clairlemon et al are nothing but a cover for eugenics.   Permalink 2:08 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The true left gets it. Democrats are getting Donaldo relected.   Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The nightmare   Permalink 10:14 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Thread on Ergodicity & @ole_b_peters work 1) If you optimize on multiperiod payoffs you avoid an absorbing state(0), because multiplicative. ANY such optimization will avoid absorption, not just LOG 2) Growth is a nice summary parameter. 3) Avoiding absorption does same. Permalink 6:48 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb [For those who don’t get it: the point is that some friends are worse than enemies] Permalink 4:54 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Friends, the M5 competition (@spyrosmakrid ) is about inventory prediction using ML or other. I suggested predicting maxima & minima on top of the usual. While extrema are useful in trading (“never cross a river that’s on ave 4f deep”), are they with inventories? Permalink 4:37 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@bmiloy Attending one of these exposes and clears a lot of BS from your thinking. You think you understood the Incerto, maybe even read it a few times, and then you attend and discover that you were missing something essential.   Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see: The hidden moments for a probability distribution. The Lucretius problem in #TheBlackSwan. (Turns out explicit result below is new.) Inspired by a mistake made by that idiot @WGoetzmann (who sees #TheBlackSwan as an “airport book”) . Permalink 3:03 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we gave in. Thanks to @Firsou we have a new #RWRI website   Permalink 1:25 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Clive James, RIP My notes on his book *Cultural Amnesia* Permalink 12:28 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb With friends like me you are guaranteed to never need a single enemy.   Permalink 10:27 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@aleksndr_r “A book review can be far more descriptive of the reviewer than the book itself.” —@nntaleb That you can learn as much about the source of information as its object is one of the most helpful principles I’ve come across recently. Permalink 9:39 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@CIELivestock1 Raffael Zanoli @UnivPoliMarche tells @iSAGE_H2020 #sheep industry mtg in #Wetherby of @nntaleb concept of #antifragility. Beyond #resilience, resulting from challenges in the environment making you more #robust to future challenges. Applies in #farming AND #marketing! Permalink 9:25 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi has reigned over 7 prime ministers, 4 presidents, a dozen finance ministers. If a single person is the perpetrator, it is him. He is the cancer. PS Riad, your “friends”’s smear campaign against me is equivalent to draining the Mediterranean with a teaspoon.   Permalink 6:57 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will be involved in this project with a formal status as “friend”. Hopefully expand it to “The Great East-Med (Graeco-Phoenician) BS-debunking School of Statistics”.   Permalink 4:45 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you encounter Pinker style careerism, remember the following. A book (or a work of scholarship) is something that is read 25 years after publication. What happens in the 25 years doesn’t count. The rest is a combination of noise, promotion, hype & resumé building. #Lindy Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@spyrosmakrid At the Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia we have founded the MOFC (The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center). Its purpose to Advance the Theory and Practice of Forecasting through competitions, conferences, publications and forecasting courses. @polemitis Permalink 1:59 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@BDufournet My wife and I had the same idea for Christmas for each other… @nntaleb’s masterpiece in the deluxe edition! Received today. A very nice present. Permalink 2:53 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb By free I mean morally free, free to be ethical   Permalink 1:58 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Yes! James Scott! Permalink 7:49 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you ask the facilitator of a Ponzi scheme to fix the Ponzi. Salame needs adult supervision.   Permalink 7:04 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 1) The judgment of the free is the only one that counts. The rest has some element of propaganda. 2) Very, very few people are free. 3) In general, the more prominent the person, the less free. The janitor is freer than the politician/CEO. 4) Purity requires freedom. Permalink 6:36 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@OrtolanMagazine This is insanely fucked up and people aren’t talking about it enough at all #crispr #china #gmo @nntaleb   Permalink 5:48 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Aside from BS Vendor extraordinaire @saPinker misrepresenting his own claims (see other posts), @DrCirillo & I have shown that interarrival times betw. large wars >100 y hence 1) his claim on post WW2 is statistical noise 2) he doesn’t get what statistical noise means #BSVendor   Permalink 5:12 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY of PROBABILITY Latest with @DrCirillo now on ArXiv   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:09 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:23 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What drinking with @EmanuelDerman looks like. And that’s before the drift into Spinoza. #OnlyinNewYork Permalink 4:18 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Wealth Inequality Among Snails   Permalink 1:26 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb FAT TONYISM More effective & less risky to improve food distribution than produce GMOs/GoldenRice (food costs=60-94% distrib/decay), but not to *scientism*merchants It costs millions to make train rides more pleasant, billions to make trains just a bit faster, but not to… Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@Prof_BearB I think someone proposed it.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 6:19 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon   via @YouTube Permalink 5:55 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The bullshitter still doesn’t get that BOTH claims have been debunked plus his shoddy statistical claims!   Permalink 1:54 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@DrCirillo Another sophistry. As usual. Given that what he claimed has been shown not to hold, he tries to change his claim ex post. Verba volant, scripta manent.   Permalink 1:32 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The end of Behavioral Economics   Permalink 12:06 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@sean_a_mcclure The general public gets swept up in the labeling of others as “anti-science” without understanding how science actually works. The willing and able are now stepping forward to call BS and set the record straight. I can’t think of a better service to society. #science   Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Statistics is a BS detector, not a BS generator.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit   Offshore books   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:13 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The president, cabinet, central bankers & bankers should be locked 24/7 in a war room/control center discussing options & working hard instead of engaging in courtesy meetings & focusing on shooting messengers.   Permalink 8:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@Firefly_fan Do you know Nassim that every smear campaign (the one that you suffer too) of Monsanto et al about Golden Rice is based (ENTIRELY) on a fallacy?   Table 1. “Misleading Summaries” subgroup “Absence of evidence as evidence of absence”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The author of the article on golden rice used by @sapinker was running a bank that blew up spectacularly; asking him for advice on tail risk is like putting a drunk driver (while drunk) to monitor road safety.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Sorry, error: I carelessly mistook @mona_harb_ (who tried -and failed— to dump on me) for @mona_fawaz. Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics I didbn’t even catch that this is via @quillette. of course. They know the best genes for humans to have AND know the best genes for plants to have eugenics quillette.   Permalink 4:37 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics Same language as last time, copied off a PR sheet I guess Soulless @sapinker Steven Pinker again smears those scientific doubt and reasonable concern for risk, uses the image of dying children to push his agenda   Permalink 4:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Localism implies opposition to US interventionism in world affairs (Syrian “rebels”, Saudi Barbaria-Yemen, etc.) It does not mean supporting interventionism by OTHER regimes. Most shills & low-intellect propagandists promote false dichotomies:”if not green, it must be pink”. Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Although activist @mona_fawaz has tried to dump on me (& got ran over),I MUST fight for her against the smear campaign by fascist propagandists that she’s a “foreign agent” #localists want to run their own lives, not be trapped into US-Iran-Israel-SA globalism #Skininthegame Permalink 3:59 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you ask what pple in #Lebanon want: basic amenities, jobs, education, clean water, transportation, power, etc. #Localism. Not geopolitics US-Iran-Israel-SaudiArabia. Fascists Khalek et al are shilling ag a technocratic government on grounds that it won’t globalize. Permalink 3:26 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RISK MANAGEMENT 101 we teach students: What @sapinker says is 1) wrong, 2) dangerous, 3) unrigorous & primitive *scientism*, with probability approaching 1.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:09 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam The idea that Golden Rice is a useful or necessary solution to nutrition problems does not recognize many alternatives and does not include an understanding of risk. This is a terribly misguided and unscientific frame of reference. @nntaleb   Permalink 7:50 PM – 1 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) Sharing some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas about probability distributions with kids   #math #mathchat Permalink 9:07 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @dan_azzi Permalink 7:37 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @JadChaaban is also a target of the smear campaign. I can hire someone to identify the source. After the Monsanto episode we got to know exactly how these are done. Also easy to sue people involved in the story in NY or LDN if they cover up for losses.   Permalink 6:55 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@digvijoy_c Someone wrote: “Dear Mr Taleb, I like your work but I feel compelled to give you a piece of advice. An intellectual like you would greatly gain in influence if he avoided using foul language.” Answer: “Fuck off.” From @nntaleb facebook page. Holiday season gold from Nassim. Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Also there are mechanisms to sue Global Finance magazine for giving awards to #RiadPonzi, give naive investors & savers a false feeling of security. Also we need @petelx60 to help us investigate how @LebAmUniv gave him an award (before his days). Permalink 5:50 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Signs both #RiadPonzi & Bankers Assoc. hired 2 PR firms to whitewash their image/smear critics including @dan_azz, @Nasser_Saidi. Not successful in the West (nobody is stupid) but # circulating videos in Lebanon. Some shills: @jassemajaka cc:@Jad_Ghosn #lebanonprotest Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb At the “meeting”, #RiadPonzi exhibited a lack of financial proficiency. He said “We issued CDs at 6%, they are now at 20%, so we have profits.” Imagine a CEO saying: we issued bonds/stocks, their value collapsed, we make yuuge profits if we bought them back 50% lower! Permalink 4:57 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RETROSPECTIVE BIGOTEERING 1) no law is retrospective 2) you cannot blame people of a violation of a moral rule (or law) if they could not be possibly aware of such a rule, if such rule came AFTER their actions. This is similar to the retrospective distortion in #TheBlackSwan. Permalink 4:35 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Scale analysis is not mine, elaborated by many many scientists. My contribution is the link between nonlinearity of response, scale, stability and, mostly, the probabilistic implications.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 5:37 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:08 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb An instance of retrospective bigoteering. Soon he will go after The Hamurabi code.   Permalink 3:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Most people scientists, academics, journalists & other BS vendorss write, talk about, & make claims about what they know. My specialty (Incerto & Technical Incerto) is to show what we don’t know. I stand current approaches to knowledge on their head.   Permalink 1:09 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Corrected. @birdxi1988 Permalink 12:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I am wrong Permalink 9:48 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb New picture. Need to change every decade. Permalink 8:54 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb They reposted the conversation without the edits.   Permalink 8:49 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see:The hidden moments for a probability distribution. What we called shadow mean in paper with @DrCirillo Permalink 7:25 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb By depositors I mean small depositors who put their life savings in the hands of #RiadPonzi Permalink 12:37 PM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I boycott @LOrientLeJour but Triangle have been extremely good at exposing the Ponzi scheme   Permalink 10:21 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@idrissaberkane Il y a des gens qui sont prêts à se créer six comptes pour troller @nntaleb mais vraiment twitter est devenu complètement fou Permalink 8:27 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Le @dr_l_alexandre est un charlatan. Aucune etude genetique sérieuse sur le sujet. Du bidon. Voir   Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is the classical question: “Where are the Customer’s Yachts?” Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A meeting in the Presidential Palace includes a representation of the banking sector. Where are the representatives of depositors? Where? Where? #LebanonProtests @Jad_Ghosn @dan_azzi Permalink 6:05 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb India Economic Conclave Dec 16-17   Permalink 2:57 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Immense gratitude for this country, its people, its system. Permalink 3:09 PM – 28 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – @nntaleb   Permalink 11:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@vtchakarova I use the occasion of #HappyThanksgiving to extent my special gratitude and big thanks to @nntaleb for giving me the unique chance to be part of his amazing #RWRI family this year and to grow immensely as a human and as a spirit! #SITG Permalink 10:39 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A mistake I made. My specialty is nonlinearity of responses. Complex systems have scaling issues from nonlinear responses.   Permalink 10:08 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The precautionary principle.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit   Offshore books   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I solved the quandary: I drink only American wine for Thanksgiving. Yet I want something Lebanese. Compromise: American wine made by Diaspora Lebanese. Permalink 7:59 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb As with IQ “regressions”, all it takes is one single point to change the story. #FooledbyRandomness   Permalink 6:04 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@BitcoinDu Find out more about bitcoin in Lebanon at   Permalink 5:35 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@beirut_banyan We’re joined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb for Episode 81 of The Beirut Banyan, and we discuss the October 17 Revolution and Lebanon’s modern history within the context of complex systems and local structures. Soundcloud:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lebanese Bitcoiners Show How to Talk About Crypto At Thanksgiving   via @coindesk Permalink 3:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The evolution of the reputation of #RiadPonzi   Permalink 3:18 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Never mess with other people’s sacred values. Never.   Permalink 2:15 PM – 27 Nov 2019

@B4DGETT This time of year, reminded of @nntaleb’s illustrative Thanksgiving turkey problem. Permalink 11:36 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@georges_ebel “never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep” illustrated @nntaleb Permalink 7:59 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Buy Lebanese products. They need your dollars. Find a store near you. Permalink 6:15 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@prakashperuvamb He is a role model precisely because of that . Speaks his mind, doesn’t mince word or tolerate crap, and what he says almost always makes abundant sense … Not ur politically correct ninny nanny type @nntaleb Permalink 5:27 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Chapter on Extreme Value Theory with some results Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@MarkMulvey My favorite @nntaleb quote, because most people treat math as a means to an end but he treats it like an artisan or musician: as an means to experience.   Permalink 7:14 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I cannot stand phonies, despicable people like @BretWeinstein who act on bad faith. DESPICABLE!   Permalink 2:43 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@dzviovich Wealth Gap is an emergent property of complex systems where agents interact. If system is not hijacked by rent seekers social mobility will follow as market preferences evolve. A very simple economy model will show these properties in action   Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:21 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fucking coward: I want to see you try to insult other religions as you did with Christianity & people holding Christian beliefs. Coward and phony! Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Attributing the #Iranprotests to fuel prices is similar to attributing the #LebaneseProtests to a tax on WhatsApp. #Verbalism Permalink 8:24 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@normonics Anyone want to place bets how long it takes @BretWeinstein to apologize for telling Christians to shut up about their beliefs?   Permalink 7:02 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Probability Discovery Du Jour: the invisible tail for a power law distribution doesn’t depent on its parametrization. A closed form derivation of thee “invisible tail”. Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@af_rd_ @BrankoMilan citing the Antifragile work by @nntaleb. Didn’t need more incentives. But it happens to be an interesting read indeed – ‘Antifragile states and global cities’   @ips_journal Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hezb now experiencing peacetime dilemmas: 1) cannot side with the protests without upsetting Iran 2) cannot use missiles against its own citizens, so militiary power is useless 3) cannot control hooligans harassing demonstrators 4) cannot afford to lose Shiite/Christian support   Permalink 12:36 PM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Bible in Lebanese/”NeoCannanite”.   Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain extreme value theory: The Fréchet is surprising simple to rederive. Permalink 4:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@gabrielacunac Brillantemente expresado por @nntaleb Permalink 3:52 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Summary of my point   Permalink 3:17 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The war on the Christian religion by @BretWeinstein shows ignorance of revelation of preferences, a repeat of what the charlatan Harris is spreading. Religion is NOT epistemic, but functional, precautionary, and #LINDY.   Permalink 3:00 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A lunatic… Dangerous… I thought the social planner was a closed problem.   Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Again it is one position to say: “I wish to be with people from my tribe”, it is another one to claim: “I don’t want these people around BECAUSE they are genetically inferior”. This @erasmuse is in that second category which is FAR more dangerous. Permalink 1:13 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Taleb is arrogant. Find out why. Attend #RWRI   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:01 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Taleb #ethics Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb More precise cross-correlations, bounds for transitivity in the Technical Incerto   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:40 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have scholarships open for Lebanese women, plus Iran, Bolivia, Catalonia, HK, etc. Permalink 4:37 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have 5 scholarships open for Lebanese women. Permalink 4:29 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI   Permalink 4:09 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dan Azzi is invited to get the RWRI certificate. Unlike Harvard degrees, it is not taught by professors, empty suits and bullshitters, but by people/real scientists with skin in the game.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 2) Contrary to what idiots-who-think-in-slogans spread at the tim, Proudhon was not against private property. His central idea is the domination of the state. He was fundamentally someone against the coercion of individuals.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:28 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 1) The first #localist is Proudhon. He was both anarchist & federalist, understood the link between distributed power and centralization. “Anarchy is order without power”. He got ran over by Marxists IYIs who fell for Marx’s nonsensical handwaving “scientific” approaches. Permalink 2:14 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Complex systems #Localism   Permalink 3:52 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Eric Rasmusen did produce all manner of personal abuse when my piece on IQ, heritability, etc. came out –I was wondering why, since his statistical comments were random. Turns out the fellow has indeed neo-nazi beliefs and tendencies.   Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The full Triangle paper is here   Permalink 10:31 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@paulportesi Debt and leverage have a @nntaleb dose-response sigmoid characteristics. Simply said, debt and leveraged is similar to drugs. It can be convex initially but will eventually reach an upper limit where it becomes concave an exponentially harmful. Permalink 10:09 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I expect plenty of factories to be built once #RiadPonzi and his policies are terminated. It took 3 years for Egypt and Turkey to build yuuuge reserves after their devaluation. I will make sure Riad Salameh is remembered as the MOST HARMFUL person in the history of #Lebanon. Permalink 6:46 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Some PR machinery is still trying to make people buy the argument that doubting GMOs is anti-science. In fact it is bullshit like this nonscientist journos such as @kittypurrzog that IS anti-science.   Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I am optimistic that once the Ponzi stops, we will have a yuuuuuge boom in #Lebanon. Permalink 6:06 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After my USJ talk on #RiadPonzi & Localism a few “economists” went on MTV to explain I was nonsensical & “arrogant”, it was not a Ponzi, Lebanon is different, etc. Triangle explains where it is a Ponzi: + Use new deposits to pay interest to existing depositors rather than invest! Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Civis Romanus sum The Republic of Koura in Lebanon (Capital Amioun) is closset to Cyprus & Crete.   Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our paper in the philosophy of probability, with @DrCirillo Permalink 4:48 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Note I refuse honors and rank & when introduced as a speaker, I allow only one piece of information: Uber ratings of >4.9 Excellent bullet points for my lecktshur on #Localism at LAU New York.   Permalink 2:38 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The best predictor of a collapse or blow-up => smooth returns” [part 2/2] / co-author @Firsou / inspired by @nntaleb’s #RWRI For more visit   Offshore books   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@DominikWeil Following his activities in Lebanon closely – if his ideas on #localism and #decentralization of power structures can be implemented there… – provides hope & tailwind for other localist movements around the globe #freecityfrankfurt   Permalink 7:58 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The only way one can short it without basis risk is if it lists on the NYSE AND has high volume. Plans to list in the US were cancelled.   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascists anf antilocalists are easily pushed to produce incoherence   Permalink 5:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My approach is not to convince the person but expose publicly his defects in reasoning.   Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascist @asadabukhalil wrote the only commentary on my talk on #Localism below The fascist denies local ancestral Lebanese poetry (Zajal) as a literary form. The unmistakable stamp of fascism all across. Particularly in the denial of the notion of scale.   Permalink 4:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Start tagging Arabists as “facists” nemesis of #Localism They COERCE you into an “identity” Destroy diversity & force a Medieval language w/purity Stamp out Mediterranean culture in Lebanon, & its character as cultural crossroad Example: antilocalist fascist @asadabukhalil Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@marciadabliu .not that these people would be interested but it seems @nntaleb has demolished the concept of IQ measuring let alone that intelligence could ever be inherited.   and yes, ooops some many ethical issues involved Permalink 3:15 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb People in Lebanon are not yet used to see a person entirely free who doesn’t give a fuck about his reputation. Permalink 2:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He made the mistake of pathologizing someone, which to me is a yuuuge intellectual violation. He will pay for it for the rest of his life as I find it egregious: that’s what the Soviets did with dissent. Never pathologize. Permalink 2:07 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is NOT squid ink. Just colored pasta. @adam_sajdak   Permalink 1:57 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or it is quite strange when someone keeps insulting you online, but not in person when they unexpectly meet you in the physical world? In other words talk is cheap online, but costly in real life. #Skininthegame   Permalink 2:12 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics We live in a novel age, no doubt But you have to be blind to believe it is “absolutely” novel Most of what is relevant to us is not new but very old indeed, easy to take for granted I suppose And, what should one “blindly follow”, Bret? The latest trend?   Permalink 1:13 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb From the remarks of the mob @RaniaKhalek is sending my way, there is an ELEMENTARY defect of reasoning both with her & the mob. One can be AGAINST US interventionism yet AGAINST repressive theocracy & AGAINST the massacre of young protesters in Iraq & Iran. Fehménin? Permalink 10:34 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Finishing a paper in philosophy of probability with @DrCirillo Permalink 10:15 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics .@TulsiGabbard expressed the need for local-first and regional-based agriculture model last night This is common sense from every perspective *except* for large scale factory-style industrial agriculture corporations and their lobby. Thank you, Tulsi. Permalink 8:47 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Outside an ancestral environment (or a small village), you cannot be both ethical and striving for people to like you. Permalink 8:42 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb OK, confirmed statistically. 100% of @RaniaKhalek posts are propaganda. There is NO information in the posts of the propagandists, since all you see is cherrypicked. Her “journalism” career is done.   Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@Boswall_Jacob For all depositors at #Lebanese banks, @Li_Haqqi and @nizarghanem have created a Facebook campaign to ensure that small and medium account holders don’t foot the bill of the #economic crisis. #لبنان It’s called #لن_ندفع_الثمن – find your bank here:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I removed from The Black Swan these comment because, at the time, I was stupid enough to listen to editors. “A White Swan not taking place is a Black Swan.” “You look at counterexamples for the usual, verification for the unusual”.   Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb MODERNISM Before the formation of the Greek Nation-State & Nordic historical manufacturing, Greek “identity” was not built ar. Classical Greece,but Greek Orthodoxy Greek Restaurants, now called “Olympic”, Acropolis, wd have been “Agios Nikolaos”, “Ag. Dimitrios”, “Aya Pelagia” Permalink 3:56 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@jbaksht I bought Incerto, can’t wait to reread all of them. Thanks @nntaleb   Permalink 3:55 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dabké Anatolian in origin. East Med imprint. Naples was Neapolis a Greek settlement.   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Life is boring if your online detractors freeze in terror when they run into you in the physical world. I saw a nondeadlifting stranger in a state of yuuge terror as I passed by his table, as if he ran into the Loch Ness Monster. Could be from photo the Arabo-fascist @joeyayoub   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:48 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I told an assembly of prominent farts in Lebanon, the local establishment: I don’t care about you f*cks, so long as your children are reading the INCERTO. And they are. Permalink 8:19 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon wanted power & glory. He liked flashy victories. Cambaceres who *wrote* the Napoleonic code liked influence. Napoleon lost everything but most of the world uses the Cambareces code dubbed “code Napoléon”. The world is run according to C. Gabish?   Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I respect those who seek influence; never those who seek power. Permalink 7:48 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@JamesMarsh79 i think this proves Nassim’s point about size. Permalink 7:33 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb Lebanon: From Ponzi to Localism   Permalink 7:24 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After defending her (benefits of the doubt), I am now nearly certain that @RaniaKhalek is an Iranian regime shill. The Regime is massacring hundreds of youths in Iraq & Iran. It is unpardonable. A shill is always UNCONDITIONALLY on one side of an issue.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@Zzeghedrane Localism taking place and shape strongly on the ground instead of in theory Cc: @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The foundation of the 1/n heuristic is that the law of large numbers cannot be invoked.   Permalink 5:12 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb In other words we get an exponential out of a power law. Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Interesting (and shocking) result. The “missing tail” for a power law follows a thin-tailed distribution. Permalink 2:22 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC MYSTERIOUS PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Seems that qariba قارب (small boat) doesn’t come from קָרוֹב قرب, proximity (to coast) but from the Byzantine Greek καράβι (pl.l καράβια) [same root as”crab”] Could the Byz. Greek originate from the Semitic קָרוֹב via Syrian Greek? Permalink 2:03 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb It feels the riots are more likely to succeed in Iran because: 1- Trump did not claim direct credit 2- Little news coverage 3- It feels like it is about time, I mean about time Permalink 12:35 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@HietanenPaavo More shenanigans by Finnish #Antifragile team w/ @LIHF_Living @STrosterud @Heinonmatti. Discussing hunting, Finnish localism and how more @nntaleb’s localism should be planted to Finnish political soil Permalink 11:25 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi These estimates were close. Got new information, the alpha coefficient is stable. Permalink 9:08 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@VqVoice Our new article is about making good software architecture for hearables, ergodicity, and just a little about Scorsese’s awesome film Casino (with special thanks to @nntaleb and #RWRI ) #technology #startup #softwaredevelopment   Permalink 7:51 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@BrendanJHammer Taking my daily @nntaleb – he nails it here on the proxy wars of couples. #BedOfProcrustes Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I detect that our movement is killing the old Libertarian and anarchist factions. #Localism   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@normonics   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 6:20 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Case closed   Permalink 7:49 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@RickKLN Rediscovered my faith years ago when you blocked me on FB. A Christian that didn’t discuss both sides, and could dismiss questions as BS changed my life. One of these years I will attend #RWRI and say thanks in person. Diplomacy is NOT more effective. BS busting is. Permalink 2:18 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A Sheikh in the Beqaa is saying “we can deliver Switzerland of the East” in 20 days. We do not need the central state.   Permalink 2:07 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese are still shocked by my “in your face” blunt, totally unapologetic, uncompromising, no-BS, “he’s incompetent”/”you’re an idiot” approach, esp when I address IYI “specialists” I threw someone w/unsollicited advice “diplomacy is more effective” out of my house. Permalink 2:06 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Very rough statistical estimatess. Wished the banks told us more. Good news for the small depositor Permalink 1:25 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Key part in PRINCIPIA is that the demarcation left-right has been redrawn by real science, along the lines STATIST-LOCALIST-MINARCHIST When I gave my tawk in Boulder, was told US most localists self-defined as “left”.Super-localist= Libertarian, etc. I prefer the IDIOT-NONIDIOT   Permalink 1:23 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I think the haircut can be milder 200k-1 mil, since the bulk is from accounts>1 mil Permalink 1:12 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb There is a problem w/: Short Aramco Long Oil contracts which maturity? Aramco =~ perpetual maturity The front contracts can be much, much more volatile than the back and decorrelate during squeezes. Discussed in one of the #RWRI   Permalink 11:39 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Solved half Permalink 4:29 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ (Statistical sleuthing) We know that +1% of accts in #Lebanon own 50% of total, $170 bil +accts <$200K represent $20 bil in total (rough numbers) Assume Pareto distr. How many accounts have > 200K, 1 mil, 10 mil ? What’s the weekly drain from 1000$ withdrawal per acct? Permalink 4:09 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@Firsou Anyone in Lebanon that advocates indebting the country in a similar manner should be treated with extreme suspicion.   Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I saw no such posters. My point is that the only way to satisfy Salafis is to give them their own communes. Unless you recommend “killing them all”.   Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism A crowd starts clapping from one single trigger. Revolutions (1848, #LebanonProtest, Iran, Iraq, Chile, H-K, Barcelona) spread spontaneously, “leaderless”, bec. complex systems work by 1 heuristic: once you find the trigger, you get power law behavior. Hard to reverse. Permalink 2:10 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He said “Tripolis is 10% Salafi, mostly in one neighborhood, & there is no alcohol in the whole place out of fear. You need to either increase the subdivisions or force the sectarians into a secular system that will turn them into terrorists out of resentment.” Permalink 1:50 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism at its best!!! Intoxicated by what is happening in Tripolis (Troblos) Tens of simultaneous ORDERLY discussion groups on constitutional, legal, economic matters Shocked to hear someone telling me “Tripoli shd not be one municipality ” because “minority rules”! Permalink 12:57 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Albert Kostanian proposing the equitable haircut proposed on his program: spare small accounts <200K, have a progressive haircut.×270/euqLRKy2IEHnjwzB.mp4?tag=10   Permalink 12:47 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@soonaorlater ‘Bitcoin removes [government] from the transaction…They’re trying to ‘ban bitcoin’ because they’re afraid of it. It’s important for us [the Lebanese] from now on to learn about crypto. Our collective intelligence is greater than the state’s’ – @nntaleb   Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A rioter was explaining the Silver Rule: “Mitl ma bit3omil btet3omal” Permalink 10:03 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Troblos (Tripolis) The epicenter of the Revolution. Permalink 9:56 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@rebeccacollard “From Tehran to Beirut, one revolution that won’t die” Lebanese chanting in support of Iran protests tonight. #LebanonProtests #IranProtests #iran #لبنان_ينتقض Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb II- Also as a bonus you “earn” the country risk since Aramco is located in the Shiite area with an oppressed minority who rightfully believe oil is theirs. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@PZalloua At z Lecture on Localism, Beirut USJ @nntaleb over-filled Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I want to be sued for the defamation of #RiadPonzi   Permalink 6:25 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Pareto 80/20 Estimated share of deposits. I suggest NO HAIRCUT except for acc >500K-1m & progressive beyond. Permalink 5:11 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GEORGIA as a model for #Lebanon MOST successful post-Soviet state. -Fired the entire police dept. Over 7 month w/o law enforcement, crime dropped by 60% (they claim) -Anti-corruption gov : most in their 20s, PM 32. 0 tolerance,$20 bribe=>7y jail #كلن_يعني_كلن @fadyasly Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This tweet puts to rest all possible theories of “Aounist tendencies” on my part. I am intransigent & INDEPENDENT. Always, everywhere, w/ no political loyalties even if I am buddies w/@Gebran_Bassil A judge has no friends. There are NO exceptions. #كلن_يعني_كلن #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Full paper (2nd revision) is here   Permalink 3:47 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Typo: (“incl Gold” shd be “excl. Gold”), but P/L (actual negative bleed) must me much > $5 bn. Ref: Toufic Gaspard’s note. Permalink 5:53 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My talk tomorrow. Riad’s Ponzi has been depleting reserves at a yuuuuge rate & borrowing to preserve a harmful “peg”. BDL has liabilities >$86 bil costing huge carry and assets <$40bil (incl. gold) earning <1%. On top of the fiscal deficit Riad’s Ponzi is costing>$5 bil/year   Permalink 5:32 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Revised the paper on the misfitness of binary predictions in real life (and the nonsense in many psychological claims) @spyrosmakrid Permalink 4:35 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our (non naive) precautionary principle page.   Permalink 2:27 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb You cannot possibly give Aoun the benefit of the doubt. He is, besides, talking to citizens as if they were his SUBJECTS, or a general’s subordinates.   Permalink 2:23 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@normonics There are moments where I almost feel pity on a guy like this But invariably they re-reveal themselves Steven Brainiac Pinker: “If you don’t recite my corporate propaganda you are a mindless killer” What a f**ing piece of trash.   Permalink 9:35 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Aoun seems to see the protests as some transitory annoyance –he appears to be irritated by the messenger. Permalink 7:34 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Optionality and the Intellectual Life: In Gratitude for the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI 12   Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Indeed I listened to his interview. That’s what he said. And, what is worse, what he meant. Permalink 6:09 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb President Michel Aoun You said that those who don’t like the government should emigrate. I am doing the exact reverse. I left 43 years ago. I am now in transit to Beirut, just to make sure YOU emigrate. #LebanonProtests cc:@Gebran_Bassil #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb FORMAL INVITATION. First come first served Permalink 1:27 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Anatomy of a state Ponzi. These are largely accumulated phantom interest earnings. Salameh killed the Lebanese economy. Scammer!!!   Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lesson from Riad Salameh’s incompetence: No central banker should ever try to print money in a foreign currency. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@otrasenda_AC Who else started to DL because reading @nntaleb ? i did   Permalink 11:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Owing to the responses, USJ will be using a different amphitheater >500 pple; a new announcement will be posted tomorrow. [Also note that your twitter response is not a reservation but a market assessment; it is still first come first served] Permalink 9:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@PaulSkallas Here’s some Libanius Permalink 7:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lghtak hiyyé l bt7ké ma3 immak. Msh lghét l sa7ra lb3idé. #Localism #Lma7alliyé Permalink 4:53 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please make sure to confirm attendance. Permalink 3:31 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My lecture, Friday 6 PM “From Ponzi to Localism” USJ School of Medicine Please confirm on Twitter so we can predict attendance. LANGUAGE: Lebanese Permalink 1:46 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Yes, formalized here see my paper on Antifragility in medicine   Permalink 7:22 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@Stefano_Peron kernel Mutual information in cluster matrix. Tnx to @financequant @nntaleb Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb WE MUST STOP SALAMEH NOW! #RiadPonzi Salameh MUST suspend payments on the Eurobond & declare a moratorium. This is outright theft from Lebanese citizens. Send to your friends! Will discuss further on Friday evening 6PM in Beirut #lebanonprotest #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@MauriceMassaad I work in a Leb co. that manufactures steel shelving solutions. 10 y ago we started exporting to difficult countries in Europe, Africa, ME. I personally spent 4 y trying to convince a French company to join us … with success! Now we are not able to deliver. Thank you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you are scared, it is impossible to hide it, no matter how hard you try. Permalink 4:19 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb CURRENT TWITTER ACTIVISM +#Localism & anti geopolitical BS vendors/Arabist fascism), & #lebanonprotest +#RiadPonzi +Pseudostatistics, esp. #Quilletbeciles/Neonazis/Eugenists w IQ claims & other #Alt-Right #Nordicists +#Nudge Finished: #Monsanto, #SaudiBarbaria, #Econometrics Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We don’t have to avoid imports, but the local industry became …just banks. I want #RiadPonzi to pay for it. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh’s Ponzi killed the Lebanese economy: small businesses, anything that could provide exports or mitigate imports has been crowded out. #RiadPonzi #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:50 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh is criminally incompetent. And, of course, a liar. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@OddmundGrotte Skin In The Game: Family/Owner-Operated Companies Perform Better?   Permalink 2:04 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, looking for a Madoff expert to figure out how they finally allocated the losses. #Ponzi #LebanonProtests #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:40 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Wisdom isn’t about understanding things (& people); it is knowing what they can do to you.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #wisdom Permalink 1:10 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Good news that Western newspapers are not reporting on #LebanonProtests. Why? Journos only get geopolitics & this is (still) a localist anti-geopolitical revolt. Trick by BS vendors (eg @tomfriedman) who understand nothing is make things geopolitical. (See #TheBlackSwan) Permalink 12:05 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@justinowings What’s lost in the climate debate? Pushing models and trusting experts _undermines_ the argument for caution. Alternative argument: Set the science aside. Lean on decision making under uncertainty—something everyone understands. “We have only one planet.” So don’t f**k it up.   Permalink 7:35 AM – 10 Nov 2019

@Lekapenos 1) I’m going to continue ridiculing the “muh steppe” quasi-Nordicists here: “The genetic basis of a number of physical features of the Yamnaya people were ascertained by the ancient DNA studies conducted by Haak et al. (2015), Wilde et al. (2014) and Mathieson et al. (2015): Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Nov 2019

Silver Rule, Charles Murray, Localism, LEBANON, Mariana Mazzucato, UBI, REITS, I MADE A MISTAKE, Corruption, Peterson, IQ, Stefan Molyneux, Aquavit, Swedes | Twitter

I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals.
Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev.

@TalebWisdom “Complaints don’t deliver complaints, they mostly reveal your weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:49 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hint: The Golden Rule is NOT Lindy. See Isocrates’ rule.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:26 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Tonight’s Lecktshur at @LAUNYHQ, I present the problem of the Golden rule: intrusive, vs. Silver Rule. #Localism= Silver Rule, rejection of golden rule. #Lebanon Nobody should ever force you into something “because it is good for them”. Permalink 4:17 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@Mangan150 Big Food – the largest global food corporations – and what they make. They turn cheap sugar, seed oils, and refined grains into profit. A big impetus behind the vegan push. Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Nov 2019

@thegeforum Nassim Taleb says the hedge fund industry is the correct model for investment management… “dont tell me what you recommend… tell me what you own”. Hedge fund managers eat their own cooking! This from a man not accustomed to giving compliments! Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating *why* you had to say it. Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@novak_ma Few months ago I read Fooled by Randomness by @nntaleb and deleted my stock watch app from phone. I checked my stocks just once since then. Feels good. Permalink 9:20 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb BTW, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, just a little reminder that you are an impostor, a fake scholar, a fraud.   Permalink 7:46 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When as****les call you “arrogant”, you are on the right side of ethics.   Permalink 7:45 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Just found a mistake in my paper concerning the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition (as I had the wrong description): the testing metric is always thin tailed EVEN if the underlying variable is fat tailed. Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The incoherent fellow (an ethnic Druze chieftain claiming to be socialist) is a specimen of someone who lives in the wrong century & fails to understand #localism. Pple are more interested in electricity & public services than geopolitical incantations.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@Decafquest On people who are afraid of cameras by @nntaleb: Relevant today more than ever. Permalink 3:41 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “We learn the most from fools … yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:35 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Religious Fundamentalists (including atheist fundamentalists) aren’t just usually morbidly stupid; they can be detected by the total absence of any sense of humor.   Permalink 5:42 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Localism is the new … communism Permalink 3:28 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Voila. The informal title is “ Localism, Complexity, and busting the BS by IYIs ” Please let me know if you are joining.   Permalink 1:26 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@LAUNYHQ Join @nntaleb at #LAUNYHQ 5:30-7pm Thursday evening Nov 7 for a pop-up seminar on Localism and its Application to Lebanon – space is limited, first come first serve, register here   Permalink 12:32 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please indicate in this thread if you wish to come. Limited to people involved in the Lebanese situation. This is not about #Localism in general rather its application to Lebanon. (Swiss specialists welcome to join as CH is the model for multiethnic multireligious localism)   Permalink 7:02 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb NEW VERSION Principia Politica #Localism   Permalink 4:38 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Naive universalism attracts IYIs and self-righteous psychopaths   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:45 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I will present #LOCALISM with respect to #Lebanon next Thursday at 5:30 in New York (before I leave NY for the Republic of Amioun). An application of PRINCIPIA POLITICA   Venue to be confirmed #LebanonProtest Permalink 4:35 PM – 3 Nov 2019

@levelsio “For I have a single definition of success: you look in the mirror every evening, and wonder if you disappoint the person you were at 18, right before the age when people start getting corrupted by life. Let him or her be the only judge; not your reputation” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:57 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I can understand someone defending Iran against Salafis/Saudi Arabia. Never anyone -supporting Iran’s regime in the murders of Iraqi youths -supporting Iranian interference in the #Lebanonprotest, largely by youths FED UP w/their exploitation for geopolitics. #Localism Permalink 8:48 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12   Permalink 6:43 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@financequant To all at RWRI 12, travel safely. It was a pleasure to work with you. Permalink 6:19 PM – 2 Nov 2019

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb summarizing Wolfram’s Principle of Computational Equivalence at #RWRI Any two systems that display non-trivial behavior are just as sophisticated as each other in terms of range of computation (not speed or memory) Deep implications for IQ Permalink 2:15 PM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game @tarekmilleron American Airlines flight attendants stand up to Boeing CEO on 737 MAX   Permalink 11:17 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou Sh3aybiyé at #RWRI !   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:10 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Heinonmatti Hey, @VergilDen is here! Banking system moves from right to left in the network fig –> vulnerability to targeted attacks. [Hope he talks about fighting later.] #RWRI Permalink 8:38 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON A bit of empiricism French and UK voters send their “heroes” Churchill and De Gaulle home after the war. Same with Bush the elder after the successful Persian Gulf war. War arguments & “resistance” do not register during periods of peace. #LebanonProtests #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou “It’s unnatural to prepare” I agree 100%. Never prepared for a presentation while I was being told “you need to have notes”. If you need 10 pages of notes why should anyone listen to you? #RWRI Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE LIRA I hear that the Lira is trading at ~ 1675. No worries. A 10% deval. is nothing since the Lira commands much higher int rates than USD. [A holder of LIRA would still be profitable.] Even a 50% deval. would just cover the last few years of interest r differential. Permalink 5:46 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@RubenGao Don’t f*** with the tail! Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@arisroussinos Via Facebook, Oxi Day celebration by the Greek Orthodox community of Damascus, part of the Patriarchate of Antioch, among the last surviving Greeks of Syria Permalink 2:52 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@birdxi1988 A great day at #RWRI @nntaleb mentioned the link between Kelly Criterion and entropy as well as why tail fitting is more an art than a science! Permalink 3:57 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@Heinonmatti @nntaleb continues; you can rule out Gaussian distributions by observing one outlier, which would be ~impossible under the Gaussian, but much much more common under another distribution. Another way is to rule out based on physiological / biological bounds. #RWRI Permalink 2:06 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 An explanation for fat tails from feedback loops: “Abyssus abyssum invocat” תְּהוֹם-אֶל-תְּהוֹם קוֹרֵא Permalink 8:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4/n Problem of teleology: the French Gov. started explicitly an internet (Minital) and failed, what survived is the side effect of a military application. @MazzucatoM: Given the % of GDP by government, what % of innovation came from government? Didn’t gov displace private invt? Permalink 10:06 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/n @mazzucatoM claimed that by attending Princeton high school she attended a “state school”. Scale effect: it’s a school for the residents of the commune, equivalent in its functioning to a private school. Permalink 10:01 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/n Govt bureaucrats are not boring & lacking in innovative drive because they didn’t study strategy in business schools (i.e. because of their education) as claimed by @mazzucatoM, rather boring people tend to work for government. Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 1/n Just listened on way to #RWRI the @econtalker podcast with @mazzucatoM about the government role in innovation “investor of first resort”. Will comment further after I read the book, but found many flaws in reasoning by Mazzucato: Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:25 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI   Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI entropy Permalink 7:19 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 : Robert Frey ⁦@financequant⁩ showing how the “blind watchmaker” (see book by BS vendor @richarddawkins) is improper characterization of evolution and complex systems: a watch half built is jot a watch. Permalink 6:22 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity.” Permalink 5:12 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo At #RWRI, @nntaleb, @financequant and @normonics are fighting over the best definition of entropy… I don’t see why, given that the best definition is mine : a pseudo-metric of distortion, whose interpretation varies with its generator. Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo Live from #RWRI, @normonics speaking about networks. Permalink 11:47 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@coordinatedsync #RWRI Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The way political parties and militias self destruct. They can use weapons against ISIS and Israel, never against their own constituents. They are done. #لبنان__ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 5:23 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr Skin in the game also has an intrinsic moral appeal and aesthetic value: Real virtue isn’t cheap. And it turns out skin in one’s own game is a moral minimum; more admirable is skin in other people’s games—­altruism, or what he calls “soul in the game” Permalink 5:16 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr For Taleb, skin in the game is an expression of intellectual virtue. One isn’t actually thinking well if one doesn’t have some sense of accountability for the outcomes of one’s judgments. Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@NonMeek “Take all the risk you want but don’t f**k with the tail.” -@nntaleb That’s one central idea from yesterday’s #RWRI 12 starting session. BOOM Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@visualizevalue — @nntaleb Permalink 7:02 PM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ramses XII Riad Salameh now blaming the messenger for revealing the Ponzi he orchestrated. He is implicitly using the currency as a threat. Instability is preferable to fake Ponzi stability.   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@StartSocieties Excited for @nntaleb’s next book. Politics framed as a complex adaptive system totally changes political priorities. Let’s focus less on top down solutions, and more on building political systems that enable antifragile problem solving. #localism   Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 Permalink 5:18 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 To all #RWRI folks, wish I could be with you for my 6th visit…if nothing else to ask questions born from my confusion. Have fun! @nntaleb @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @VergilDen @Jed_Trott and the rest of the gang. Permalink 4:07 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes!   Permalink 11:14 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A kind of network, but not desirable (one dimensional), but beats standard statist hierarchies. Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Beirut Madinati now writing IN LEBANESE! Congrats! #Localism #LebanonProtests   Permalink 8:11 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same in Semitic languages: Heb עבודה = work, and עבד 3bd= to be a slave.   Permalink 7:20 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. It is just to clean up my feed for a dialogue with minimum sophistry. Permalink 6:21 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb coercion Permalink 5:59 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain complexity and spontaneous order, with the “leaderless” Lebanese protests which baffles intellectuals, journos, Arabists, & other ignorant idiots looking for agency. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests   Permalink 5:58 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Mr Ewan Birney @ewanbirney, sorry but you don’t understand the “quantitative trait” at all. @StuartJRitchie is, practically, analytically, a fraud who can fool someone who doesn’t know what correlation means.   Permalink 11:23 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@rationalwalk If UBI was referred to as a negative income tax, which it actually is, and if replaces rather than is additive to welfare, it would be a hugely popular idea across the political spectrum, except among the bureaucrats who’d be out of a job. So they’ll demagogue this to death. Permalink 11:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on STATISM My problem w/”socialists” is that they are statists & intrusive, not pro-welfare. I am for a negative tax (minimum income)= to $$ spent on welfare, saving spending on bureaucrats. But they refuse because they want to DIRECT how ppple spend $ & pay cronies. Permalink 11:03 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb CEMENT IN LEBANON. As in elsewhere, construction is a mafia business. Cement Imports are banned to benefit factories in Lebanon (that employ Syrian workers). Lebanese citizens pay TWICE the price for concrete. The margins are shared by the Kleptocrats. #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 10:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ἔλεγεν δὲ αὐτοῖς ὁ Ἰησοῦς ὅτι Οὐκ ἔστιν προφήτης ἄτιμος, εἰ μὴ ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ, καὶ ἐν τοῖς συγγενέσιν καὶ ἐν τῇ οἰκίᾳ αὐτοῦ. Mark, 6 Never never try anything beyond nudging.   Permalink 10:04 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb We have so many capable people in the diaspora or ex-diaspora. Based on his track record, I propose @DrFadloKhuri as a member of the next cabinet. Or someone along such a profile.   Permalink 7:32 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@PZalloua At the demonstrations today: “Lebanese Style” Permalink 6:48 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The point is that whatever is not worthless is psychology we already know from elsewhere. The issue: bad science is worse than no science.   Permalink 6:22 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@encrier improvised signs for today’s protest Permalink 5:17 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People who were previous ashamed of writing in Lebanese feel now empowered to do so! Even Nasrallah spoke in Lebanese. From chaos you get a new order. #ComplexSystems #Localism #BottomUp #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض   Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Over time for the sake of efficiency & owing to, say, preferential attachment, networks are pulled into the center, from unifom to power laws or maybe lognormal. The one of the left collapses. Centralized systems end up collapsing after pseudostability Explained in #TheBlackSwan Permalink 7:37 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@Cernovich Who are the five wisest living people today, in any country in the world? Permalink 4:34 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The problem with historical reporting is overestimation of agency: narratives require leaders so people are fooled by journos etc. about the exact process. Same overestimation of agency as the one in #fooledbyrandomness #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 2:45 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To the left, how both Nasrallah, his enemies, & journalists think Lebanese Politics should work. To the right is how the protesters proved it works. Complex systems generatee spontaneous order. Progress lies in having NO leaders. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests Permalink 1:33 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The central aspect about the Lebanese riots is that there is no leader. #Localism   Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Actually song in Lebanese #Localism   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@normonics @nntaleb look at the traction kanye talking about localism is getting. first, the self and mind, then the family, then the community, gardens, agriculture, etc. bottom up. local first. meme is sticking. Permalink 11:31 AM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntalebbot “What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have; it is what he or she is afraid of losing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 24 Oct 2019

@ronaldchagoury Sooooo well said – I’ve never been able to put my finger on it, and this is so spot on. The resentment class who rarely have skin in the game Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Nobody seems to be getting what I am saying: The assets of the ETFs should be dropping, no? Easy/tight money affects real estate, not just ETF. Permalink 9:28 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@VergilDen And then make changes to the educational system as NNT points out in Principia Politica   Permalink 8:43 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why the REITS are still rallying? Rates are net, net higher.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:40 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Women in #Lebanon   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Don’t miss @nntaleb tonight at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium at the Bern Dibner Library (5 MetroTech Center, Brooklyn, NY).   #NYUTandonMade @nyutandon   Permalink 7:36 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@mcclay_roman This page from you is framed and on the wall of my little container home. Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I do not wish to be considered for any official position in #Lebanon, so PLEASE remove my name. I prefer to help in other ways. This is the 3rd request. #LebanonProtests Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No, pple in Lebanon & elsewhere aren’t complaining abt “inequality”. The “inequality” is a claimm by the resentment class: journalists, academics (Pikety) & other losers. They want better conditions, governance, justice, accountability & skin in the game.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@paulportesi Missed this about a month ago. Very interesting data point. @nntaleb has mentioned how using ice for injuries has no scientific foundation if I remember correctly. Align to Nature.   Permalink 11:28 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics will lecktshur at #RWRI about complexity and multiscale properties of “tings”. He has 54 minutes plus 11 Q&A. Raphael, @financequant myself, & others will heckle him (we can stand heckling).   Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) With Modi also no tie (twice). Only exception: the US Senate. They refused to let me testify without a tie, so I borrowed one. Permalink 2:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals. Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev. Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb These low-intellect Western Arabists trying to force their 1001 night identity on us don’t know that “merci” came to Lebanon via Turkish, Armenian, & Farsi. The Edward Said “collonial” is Total BS: the French spend 2 decades on a military mandate. Permalink 1:36 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb What if the army went after the people? Not many options #lebanonprotest   Permalink 12:35 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A heuristic to pick out a fraudster in #Lebanon, helpful for the selection of new ministers: 1) Wears a tie (hence empty suit), & 2) Speaks on TV in Classical Arabic (a dead Semitic language, similar to shouting in Medieval Latin in the UK Parliament). Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy: the latest format and a #Lindy text Permalink 10:49 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@shreyansh_jain1 That’s a foolish statement. The fundamental problem of food supply is food wastage. So it’s a supply chain mgt problem. It’s the other way around here. Organic farming takes more space to patch the quantity of wasted food. You desperately need lessons from @nntaleb. Permalink 9:30 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb How the Lebanese State destroyed the economy [English subtitles, including the “Gabish”]   Permalink 9:25 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@PZalloua This is how revolutions are made: Lebanese style! Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: If my enemies knew me better, they would hate me even more. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Proud of my Archbishop! Vacuum is better than what we currently have. Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb, will present “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” as part of the NYU FRE Lecture Series this Thursday at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium. This event is open to the public. #NYUTandonMade Permalink 7:37 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 9- CORRECTION I MADE A MISTAKE Trusting Hariri’s claims of balanced budget. #Lebanon   Permalink 6:50 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@ShipSystem In Norway being a village local means so much for any job even over more qualified person from next village. Have u ever lived in Norway because ur tweet is 100% true. Maybe norwegians socialist on some aspects but super localist on most aspects. Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb BernieSanderistas are trying to promote a fake idea of “Nordic Socialism”. Nordics are 1)Yuugely localists (see #Antifragile on communes); they empowered local lang [Danish, Norwegian, Swedish] & don’t call them “dialects of Nordic”. 2) Are NOT socialists [Soc. failed in 70s] Permalink 5:47 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Fuck, no.   Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is Arabic. Write to me in Lebanese. Permalink 5:06 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders, stay out of this. You’re like a quack doctor who will kill the patient. The socialist (centralized statism) you are selling is what ruined Iraq, Syria, Egypt over the past 60 y. Lebn has little to do w/”Arab” Spring. Pple are fed up w/ kleptocracy/statism/Arabism   Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard .@HillaryClinton, your foreign policy was a disaster for our country and the world. It’s time for you to acknowledge the damage you have caused and step down from your throne.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:56 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR Option traders might recognize some sort of butterfly Permalink 2:25 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@Extrachelle An excellent book deserves a good LaTex bookmark #SITG @nntaleb Permalink 10:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain it to them?   Permalink 9:49 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ducavendish “the larger the central state, the more patronage.” Fucking brilliant. Still, people just don’t get it.   Permalink 7:13 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rest in peace, David Freedman. You were the first BS buster in statistics, and trained me to it.   Permalink 7:11 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ektrit For anybody with knowledge of actual history like Taleb, #LOCALISM is how the world functioned until mid 19th century, with the implementation of nation-states in Europe. As perspective, the current global setting is just 200 years young out of 6000 years of documented history.   Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb You have a moral duty to write in the language of the population. The French parliament does not use Latin. Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I refuse to use ARABIC, an elite COERCIVE language not spoken by the population. If you want me to write in anything, I use Levantine in the Lebanese version.   Permalink 6:57 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7- SOLUTIONS It would be nice to but some kleptocrats in jail, particularly that funds are traceable. This will happen. But it is PATRONAGE that needs to go. Let me repeat, PATRONAGE! This can ONLY happen via decentralization as the larger the cental state, the more patronage. Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 6- People are angry because: a-they share the debt burden w/no benefits b-the Leb State messes up everything it touches, except security c-unlike Maluf, kleptocrats do not deliver The need for religious “harmony” allowed a multi-sect “elite” to milk the system to the bone. Permalink 6:18 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 5- (Cont some clarity about #Lebanon) Corruption doesn’t necessarily kill economic activity (Brazil’s Paulo Maluf “steals but delivers”). Except that the way the Petit Segneurons operate is to use their franchise by imposing yuuuge red tape: No electicity, no garbage collection! Permalink 6:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4- The patronage system got out of control: government contracts grabbed by cronies, in a scheme orchestrated by people in/out of government, s.a. the Grand Segneura & many less visible Petit Segneurons populating ministries. Kleptocracy is traceable& illegal, not patronage! Permalink 6:02 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3- Meanwhile the Gov is that of a federation, which is good (via healthy sectarianism) but government service is simply PATRONAGE, for each sect to get the max from the system. A healthier federation is to do it according to geography, via municipal power. Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2- Luckily the Ponzi involves only 2 parties, Leb Gov (via Ramses XIII Salameh) & the banks. Hence easy non-inflationary cancellations w/clawbacks from those who made millions are possible. In the meanwhile Gov is taxing back the banks to cover secondary deficit, very smart move. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #LEBANON, in Summary 1- Leb government got involved in a Ponzi (facilitated by Ramses XIII, Riad Salameh) that sucks up all funds from the system. People have no incentive to put $ (say inheritance from a childless maternal aunt) in a business; get >10% interest from the bank. Permalink 5:46 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same with #Lebanon driving rules: except for speed, chaos is beneficial. Speed limits are necessary because of nonlinearity. From #Antifragile Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Waiting in line is not always efficient as it can cause traffic jams. At RWRI we recommend that people overcome these arbitrarily & unempirically derived English manners & avoid waiting in line at the buffet lunch.   Permalink 4:44 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@BLebnene On @reddit:   Permalink 3:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ofer_rubin After they fail those imbeciles NEVER forget to say “this wasn’t real Socialist”, f**king utopia drug dealers. Permalink 4:14 AM – 21 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No. Very naive topdownism. Every degree of complexity reduces odds of success by 1 order of magnitude @lebaneselingui1   Permalink 10:42 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@DarkoAlexandar Cuánto de esto aplica también acá en #chile   Permalink 10:25 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Riad Salamé, let me know when we can talk. We need to discuss the Ponzi you helped organize (and what the exact numbers are). There is no way citizens should inherit such a debt burden. Given that primary deficits are ~OK, you have some explanations to do. Permalink 9:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb KLEPTOCRACY: It is important to note that corruption is NOT necessarily in the government (often composed of transient ministers) but deep in the opaque administrations. Which is why decentralization makes things salient. Permalink 8:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People in #Lebanon are figuring out spontaneous crowdd order.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:41 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM in LEBANON Permalink 7:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7ada 3am ystghll 2sset l léj2in! Hiyyé l mshklé yallé 2abado 3layon!   Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@Zzeghedrane Diaspora, this is our contribution to the uprising! Fund the people to keep going! Water, food, snacks, masks, whatever they need. $20 can give water to 60 protesters! Please share!! #LebDiasporaProtests #LebDiasporaFunds #لبنان__ينتفض   Permalink 6:20 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Question is whether “Baabda vaut bien une messe”. (Henry IV converted to Catholicism to become King of France. He didn’t have a Greek Orthodox mother.) Beyond the joke, under the LOCALISM program, the president is a mere clerc, as in Switz. Lower rank than mayor of Amioun.   Permalink 4:56 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@semperfidem2004 Another excellent argument for #Brexit. Nothing at all “shows very easily” in the EU   Permalink 3:05 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Lebanese in Boston, Tomorrow, Sunday the 20th, starting at 4 PM in front of the Boston Public Library – Copley Square Protest with us! Bring your flags and signs! Spread the word to your Lebanese in Boston metro! #LebDiasporaProtests #لبنان_يثور #لبنان_ينتفض #يا_ثوار_الارض Permalink 6:18 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rioting Lebanese style   Permalink 5:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Petition to get the ball rolling on this with @nntaleb   Permalink 5:16 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@HachemYassin Admittedly this needs a lot of work on the ground. M people became accustomed to think they are entitled to things from the state, with the famous “wayniyye l dawle” cliche. dawle is there, but it is the problem,not the solution.sadly, protestors think the state shld provide jobs Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2) The current villains (Siniora, Berri, Basil) will, over time, look much more like villains, whether justified or not. Salamé will, of course, be dragged through the mud. #Lebanon PS- I spend a week per month there but missed events because of #RWRI 12 Permalink 4:02 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb RIOTING LESSON 101; When rioters win concessions from the governement, they ask for more. #Lebanon 1/n Permalink 12:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@dzviovich Concentration of wealth is an emergent property of a complex system such as the economy.   . It is also a property of rent seeking societies. The other emergent property, social mobility, will not show up. Picketty and friends seem to ignore this… Permalink 5:41 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Only in Lebanon.   Permalink 5:38 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@jadabdala a phoenician mediterranean saturday – Lebanon – le phénix renait de ses cendres Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a … Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Friends, a lecktshur open to the public next Thursday. But it will be mathematical, so non-quants please refrain. Based on my new book, Vol 1 of the TECHNICAL INCERTO.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:42 AM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For those not used to Twitter language (or aphorisms), “it’s not” should be translated into academic discourse unburdened with space constraints as “not necessarily so”. Permalink 9:05 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb One hitch: Donaldo’s letter is closer to that of the Sultan than to the response by the Cossacks. Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Donaldo’s letter to Erdogan will be remembered in international affairs as the 2019 version of the Cossaks letter to the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed IV. Permalink 6:22 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Infrastructure is commonly held to be a good thing. It’s not. It creates winner-take-all effects in communication.   Permalink 5:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Treating George W. Bush as an authority on peace and stability is similar to relying on a drunk driver (while drunk) as the expert on road safety.   Permalink 6:27 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 I held that something as absurd as the pseudo-Nobel in economics would end self-destructing. No point fighting it: it would collapse under the weight & monstrosity of the fraud. You can’t fool people forever. 2019 did the job. Permalink 6:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Sanctions work with countries like Turkey & China that depend on the West, not with Iran/Syria after 40 years of autarchy. The mere threat made the currency collapse. Permalink 5:31 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I am impressed. The economic weapon is a much, much more effective one than the military one. We are no longer in 1936. Trump got it.   Permalink 2:28 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@normonics All over the world, you see a common theme: Decentralization is a threat to the ruling classes.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fasted way to become poor is to socialize with the rich. Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Peterson is a charlatan.   Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@yaneerbaryam Antidepressants and other psych meds are personality change operations. Medicine/psychiatry/psychology are in a primitive state and do not understand context-individual complexity. Meds should be used only as a last resort. @MichaelSagnerMD @nntaleb See   Permalink 5:16 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Well oh well… Tulsi the most searched candidate in 49/50 states yesterday. Seems like #UnusualAmericans want to know more about her.   Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This guy is a fraud.   Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Oct 2019

@NonMeek This #Offshorecomic strip was done in collaboration with & inspired by @sean_a_mcclure‘s   Thanks for your brilliant inputs, Sean! #IQ #circularity cc: @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:57 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@Prof_BearB Nice piece. Brings to mind a point that I didn’t make in my book: if I (and @aaronclauset and @nntaleb + @DrCirillo) are right about the absence of decline and @tanishafazal is right about battle deaths, we’re actually *trying* to kill a lot *more* people today than we used to.   Permalink 8:03 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@ryanckulp everything by @nntaleb. each loop = 1% absorbed   Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb M7n vs Manyaké as described by @Confusezeus You call a number, ask for Joseph: – “Jozef Khouré hon?” – Wrong number. Call again, same thing. That’s “m7n”. Call 3rd time: Hi, I am Jozef Kouré. Did anyone call for me? That’s manyaké. Permalink 6:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The most untranslatable word I know: “M7n” in Lebanese. Unlike other untranslatable expressions, you cannot even easily describe what it is. Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Be stubborn   Permalink 3:29 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@sahouraxo A short little history of war propaganda: Vietnam 1964 – Gulf of Tonkin incident Gulf War 1990 – Incubator Babies Iraq War 2003 – Imaginary WMDs Libya 2011 – Nonexistent massacres in Benghazi #Syria 2019: Video from a Kentucky military show passed off as Syrian war footage   Permalink 5:43 PM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists (unless they have mental issues, in which case they become psychologists). And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:31 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists. And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:27 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Good news: > 100,000 lawsuits. Engaging in systematic iatrogenics is becoming very unprofitable. After Monsanto, J&J, now waiting for statins, seed oil, etc.   via @WSJ Permalink 10:26 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on How the Nazis (& predecessors) created a link with (some of) the Mediterranean populations, to manufacture a common “race” with former Barbarians and a continuum of civilization. Chapoutot, thanks to recommendation by @holland_tom Permalink 9:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Voila, there don’t seem to be many other f(x). Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Math QUIZ du jour. (Please refrain from commenting outside the exact topic.) Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@newtgingrich Why is the left so afraid of Tulsi Gabbard? I don’t understand the viciousness of the atatacks on her by the NY Times and others. Permalink 2:25 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Η ελληνική καταγωγή των Ρωμιών της Συρίας που σήμερα σφαγιάζονται από τους μουσουλμάνους   Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@jun78th Scale transformation is so important a concept – so much mismatch in scale between problem and solution often. When mismatch is minimal, life flows richly. I do hope you are able to (successfully) educate a new generation on scale transformation Permalink 7:11 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The cat is out of the bag. Antifragile is no longer in my control.   Permalink 6:47 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb He got it! Hyperlinks are distracting. This is not. #Lindy!   Permalink 6:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For COMMENTS Permalink 5:49 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In the PRINCIPIA I explain that people used to welcome individuals but reject groups qua groups (cf hospitality of Arab tribes for n<5 pple, hostility otherwise). They still do but are confused about it. “Racism” is not scale-free.   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Eveentually, this Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb When you ask people what restaurant they *would* like, they answer: comfortable, not too noisy, with room & no wait. Yet they wait in line to pak in tiny rooms with yuuge noise levels & the mobility of the Tokyo subway car. Same for books. Make them dense.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The inside: unfortunately one needs to break paragraphs manually Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb OK, smaller fonts in the margins. Note it is done in LaTeX @Firsou Permalink 3:57 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally the “Tufte style” is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile Permalink 3:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@bogdanosk Οι «Ρουμ» της Συρίας και του Λιβάνου ανήκουν στο (ελληνόφωνο ως το 1897) Ελληνορθόδοξο Πατριαρχείο Αντιοχείας. Έχουν ελληνική κληρονομιά που χρονολογείται από την ίδρυση της Αντιοχείας το 323 πΧ, καταγόμενοι από αρχαίους Μακεδόνες και βυζαντινούς Ρωμιούς.   Permalink 2:30 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any type of activity or business divorced from the direct filter of skin in the game, the great majority of people know the jargon, play the part, and are intimate with the cosmetic details, but are clueless about the subject.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:17 PM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game, Brussels Permalink 10:33 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@noedelafuentemd @nntaleb @RyanHoliday #stillnessisthekey Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Food can only be Lindy. And technology (Amazon) can reduce the distance between supplier and consumer. Permalink 8:05 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Referees should have skin in the game.   Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@FedericoPistono It is a special kind of satisfaction to receive the Incerto pentalogy by @nntaleb, in glorious deluxe hardcover, bought with fuck-you-money I made starting my own businesses from scratch, taking risks. Permalink 4:52 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Here   Permalink 5:03 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy My next book is in this format.   Permalink 4:58 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Mehdi_IR_DC My own reason for not liking psychology is that its point of departure is human arrogance. To understand human mind and to fix it! Religion on the other hand starts from the point of human humility, it has via negativa. Permalink 3:50 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Arch_Revival_ Before & After Hungarians replace ugly modernist building with a new build in the Classical tradition. A beautiful city is a better city. Budapest Permalink 3:39 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Debating… Molyneux? If someone offered you to debate an animal in the zoo, you will be equally offended. Permalink 8:39 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@satyakatla Have chanced upon a #DataScientist lecturing, who has no idea about probability and stating that distribution is drifting from the assumption, hence wrong prediction. What he doesn’t get is it is wrong distribution to start with. @nntaleb succinctly mentioned this here: Permalink 7:46 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Finaly for the identity Gov. Debt = Asset you need the asset to have the same value as if determined by the real market under selection pressures. Permalink 4:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@walid970721 I just found this tweet by Ken Roth from 2018 that shows what a moron he is. Of course the majority of the refugees are going to be Sunni when they form the majority of the population. Claiming that it’s proof of ethnic cleansing is idiotic. #Syria   Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Plus or minus the usual typos. Permalink 2:16 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Asking @sapinker to talk about … tail risk?   Permalink 2:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@briteless You will never get the f*** you money* by winning arguments. (Advice to a young adult who wants to become personally free, financially independent, and freely pursue his interests). – @nntaleb   Permalink 12:31 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Quiz du Jour, Romanian Mathematical Magazine. [Flight to Brussels] Permalink 4:35 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally there is something of interest here: group IQ != average member IQ. Complex systems are about interactions. Failure of mean field. Permalink 4:25 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@stephen_wolfram Even after 35+ years the simplest cellular automata are full of new things to discover… Noticed in a livestream yesterday: rule 73 has randomness in its left- or right-of-center column, but with 3:2 white:black   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:49 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb NEVER read anything written by journalists, just look at prices! Correct: “Stocks dropped less than a Mean Deviation because of very slight order imbalances caused by a tiny minority; a small number of unidentified motivated investors adjusting their holdings.” #MinorityRule Permalink 10:27 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FINAL. Thanks everyone for the help. Permalink 5:32 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Shawarma is not from Turkish but (Eastern) Aramaic, as the Turkish itself (çevirme) originates from the Eastern Syriac Sha-warma, where there is a shift “b” to “w”. “Barma” means to rotate, just as in “gyro” and “rotisserie”. @turlevnon Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THIRD VERSION Large Kafkaian centralization units such as Whitehall, Brussels, etc. “Elite” undergraduate education Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Tis is probabilistic, so the idea is that 3-7 out of 10 items will be gone. Permalink 3:43 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@financequant The trend to relentless centralization will collapse (after much suffering). This has happened in the small with many ex-socialist countries. Consider Sweden which restored a market economy and decentralized its social programs; e.g., school vouchers.   Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@Dark_Realist   Permalink 1:49 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2nd version Permalink 1:08 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FOR COMMENTS Friends, was asked to “predict” what would happen by the end of the decade. Used Lindy. Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Why under convexity you don’t need to be a “good” forecaster. Permalink 5:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Convexity is often missed in: + finance (gamma, model error) + evolutionary biology (mean-field) cc:@yaneerbaryam (Even those who support group selection s.a. Wilson accept the non-convexity math). + forecasting (verbalistic Tetlockism) + behavioral econ (failure of mean-field)   Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The market is like a large movie theater with a small door. And the best way to detect a sucker is to see if his focus is on the size of the theater rather than that of the door.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@davidgraeber remember any Turkish invasion of Rojava will be a NATO invasion of Rojava. Any genocide they carry out will be NATO genocide   Permalink 2:55 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@Kitsune808 Echos of Taleb multiplying… @nntaleb   Permalink 12:53 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@ektrit There is study of Theology/Church History by studying the Church Fathers and There is study of Theology/Church History by understanding that Church Fathers were in the 0.1% of Educated Elite. So, all theological conflict was among the top 0.1%. Night and Day approach. Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Oct 2019

@DellAnnaLuca THE DYNAMICS OF THE ANTIFRAGILE (thread) Where does the ability of the antifragile to benefit from volatility come from? Can this ability be increased? What policies increase it, and which decrease it? 1/N Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@VergilDen When charlatans, BS artists, and imbeciles try to team up against @nntaleb   Permalink 7:46 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Further, the identity in Debt = Money an entity called “we” owes to an entity called “ourselves” fails ergocity. #ergodicityeconomics @ole_b_peters Permalink 6:23 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “You know you have influence when people start noticing your absence more than the presence of others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes   Permalink 3:24 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@birdxi1988 At first glance,it seems that ergodicity transformation is same as log utility but with a fancy name. This just shows you why they are so different   Permalink 10:48 AM – 5 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS you should not live with: coercion of identity by the state or some IYI.   Permalink 2:54 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes! Doing something that is boring, unnatural, and devoid of organic stimulus is not (necessarily) virtue. It is meant to train people to become good bureaucrats and other slaves.   Permalink 2:52 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/ +Need for *adult supervision* (international) of Salameh & others, no need to replace right away. Permalink 9:21 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/ + Government cannot control the corruption, located is in the “deep” ministries. Changing minister is of no help. +Nonpolitical decentralization only solution. +Central state great at managing sectarian tensions …but incapable of dealing with economic life; it’s a burden Permalink 9:20 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE FINANCIAL SITUATION, INTERVIEW Recorded for LBCI (Thu 9:30 PM). + There ~no primary deficit, so no risk of big collapse. Debt is circular Bank-State. + People are so scared that ANY reduction of uncertainty (via moratorium) would be yuugely beneficial Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In real estate you make money buying the overpriced and selling when extraoverpriced. Avoid the “affordable” crap.   Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Any sucker who buys “Bullshit Claire”’s version of anything or argument about any topic is blocked for intellectual deficiency. Gabish?   Permalink 7:10 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4 hours dinner conversation with @rorysutherland and Rohan @Silva in a Pakistani restaurant in London (2 bottles of wine, but no Negroni). You must buy two copies of Rory’s book, in case one is stolen, lost, damaged (by the rain), or self-destructs. Permalink 3:03 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb So conforming to his status of fake scholar, @charlesmurray promotes a thread by *Claire-the-hysterical basketcase* without any of them knowing what I actually said. Note: Anyone who ever cites Charles Murray on anything becomes a fake scholar.   Permalink 9:28 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@GultekinBurce Small Probability, High Impact Payoffs: The horizontal line can be the payoff over time, or cross-sectional over many simultaneous trials. Full article:   by @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:04 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@STrosterud Yes. Nothing like Taleb accusing the Swedes directly for their Nobel shenanigans Makes both my Norwegian, and Finnish side smile Permalink 11:42 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@paulportesi And the evidence comes later. @nntaleb   Permalink 7:12 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I meant they changed room to the largest one based on registrations. Permalink 7:04 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Volante team. Volante is a publisher in Stockholm. Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room.   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room.   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@AntonioBlaGra While Taleb’s Real World Risk Institute #RWRI was not one of the organizations I reseached, I realize now that it certainly presents the three characteristics of the Internet Culture: open knowledge, decentralization, and reputation based in what you do.   Permalink 3:10 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Except that the Nobel Prize of Literature has the remarkable ability to pick non #Lindy authors too embedded in their time: For France, Sully Prudhomme, Fréderic Mistral,Roger Martin du Gard,Romain Rolland, Anatole France,…   Permalink 2:34 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And desertions, and typhus, and the mud. And he kept losing horses throughout. Permalink 1:32 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon is a prime example of *winning almost all battles but losing the war*. Permalink 1:15 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The single biggest hit was the Pyrrhic victory of Borodino (if we can call it a “victory”). Permalink 1:01 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 12:05 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox churches are even more beautiful!   Permalink 12:02 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon was also the grandmaster of fake news, doctoring up his “bulletins”, misreporting his casualties and those of the enemies, even when he was the winner. Permalink 11:55 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb He simply lost 2/3 of his troops to the Russians and the Cossacks. Permalink 11:51 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb MYTH DU JOUR Napoleon was not that great invincible general who was defeated by the Russian winter, nonmilitary circumstances. His Grande Armée had lost 2/3 of its soldiers before the first frost. Also remember that he (twice) deserted his own army. Permalink 11:46 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Never include in your company name “Forever”, “Long Term (Capital)”, or “Amaranth (Capital)” (flower that never dies).   Permalink 11:37 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@Marcellenassif Ideal morning coffee mug Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the case of @michaelshermer it was not that I block idiots; it was that I block charlatans, @Monsantobuster   Permalink 7:24 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Looks like you got the idea backwards. Permalink 7:22 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@VolanteForlag Finally in Sweden: @nntaleb! Today we are looking forward to a great day in Gothenburg at #bokmässan. Miss that? Tomorrow he will lecture in Stockholm. Tickets here:   @bokmassanGbg @medborgarskolan ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:03 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Aquavit is so strong the Swedes have to drink beer with it. Permalink 11:53 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Giving a lecktschur on Stockholm Monday Sept 30 in the evening to introduce the Swedish edition of Skin in the Game.   Meanwhile aquavit.   Permalink 10:12 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@bkzafar Since no one would believe me otherwise. Got seated next to one of my favourite authors on the train from Stockholm. Welcome to Gothenburg @nntaleb :) Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Explanations: 1- Lebanese banks are NOT lending to businesses, but to the government to service the debt… to the same banks. That’s what I called “circularity”. 2- Merchants now realize that an IOU from another merchant is safer than $ in the “bank”. Salameh needs to go. Permalink 2:05 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 3 + Traditional Lebanese politics along ethnoreligious lines are put on hold (now, money talks). Parties are deemed equally incompetent. Old system of *state employement as political patronage* goes out via attrition. + Real decentralization. Permalink 1:50 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 2 The system fixes itself + People realize that banks returns are not risk-free; Any income generating project than lend to the “circularity”. + Increase in governance from sudden transparent + Noninvestors take a haircut from past gains. Permalink 1:34 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION + The primary budget is about balanced; pressure is from debt servicing. + Higher rates drain the economy as real investment returns pale compared to bank deposits *in US $*, leading to a circularity Gov-Banks-Depositors. Let the system fix itself! Permalink 1:25 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (Continuing the thread)   Permalink 12:58 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 16 That rationality is about ideas, & beliefs (or religion) can be “irrational”. No. Rationality is about action. There is no axiomatic framework for rationality that includes beliefs. It is what you do. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 12:41 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@NupurJoshii I love how Nassim Taleb writes his books! There’s a summary to each section and each chapter.. There’s chapter notes . There’s a guide to the book. There’s hilarity and brilliance all at the same time. I mean. It’s wonderful ! Permalink 11:53 PM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Now first statement by Quilletebecile Young @toadmeisster: “IQ is a better predictor of socioeconomic status than parental socioeconomic status” is plain BS. IQ does not predict income/wealth (close to R^2=0, with cheating they get <.04). Permalink 10:42 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And By the way, Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister, we now have the same raw longitudinal data as the ones used by these studies. Permalink 10:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister you can now go find ALLLLLL the “studies” you want, the effective R^2 IQ tests to economic condition is ~0. Keep trying you and your Neo-Eugenist friends. Permalink 10:21 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb As an Orthodox, today was the second most important day for me (after my baptism). The highest ranking person in Orthodoxy, His Holiness Bartholomeos 1 Patriarch of Constantinople, gave me his blessing & a small gift. It was on a plane out of Constantinopolis. Permalink 10:05 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Mr Young’s own data shows an R^2 of .04 for IQ-Income. He is talking abt socioeconomic condition. Where is the 80% heritability? Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Quillette people make up numbers. This does not show “80% heritability”. Toby Young is a fraud.   Permalink 8:09 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid The “State of the art in SS Fcing” is a review paper for lay readers clarifying what we know, what we are not sure and what we don’t know about the field plus what has been achieved lately The paper is part of the M4 Special Issue of the I. J. of Forecasting @robjhyndman @fotpetr Permalink 4:59 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In fact IQ is 0% correlated to socioeconomic status, Mr Young @toadmeister Fraudster.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Plomin estimates IQ *testing* is 50% heritable, itself weakly correlated to performance. Plus testing is also 80% correlated to other tests. I estimated R^2 of 0% for socio-economic performance. @toadmeister is a quack reciting some Quillette invented mantra. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese (not Lebanese Armenian) manti (shish barak) is cooked in goat milk yoghurt with Med herbs (laban immo) and left to marinate for a bit. Permalink 4:08 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This idiot Toby Young by saying IQ is 80% heritable is not even representing the literature which (falsely) claims a maximum of 50% @toadmeister   Permalink 3:47 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb + sur les bords + pauvre con (h/t @firsou), very different from petit con + fofolle + bancal + bon chic bon genre + pour ta gouverne + foiré Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Noticed that in Tatarstan & Kazakhstan they stuff their manti with horse meat, and, mostly, horse fat; the yoghurt is made from mare’s milk. Permalink 3:27 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Which confirms my theory that Quillette is managed by a collection of low-intellect, low-skilled BS vendors, using poorly warmed up pseudoscience to promote a eugenics agenda and, of course, incapable of hiding it.   Permalink 2:58 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Manti (Istanbul): the ancestor of ravioli. Except, of course, better. Permalink 2:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Democrats: If you are using information from the whistleblower, you MUST ask for Assange’s exoneration. #Coherence Permalink 11:19 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TMFStoffel “Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling” *THIS* more than anything else, is the thing that — once you see it — you can’t un-see. It’s not just Rand. It seems like scale is something that we *ALL* struggle with. But once we see it, it changes everything.   Permalink 8:01 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile   Permalink 6:34 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Ofer just answered the central point: we are not really talking about selfishness, but symmetry. So long as do you not transfer risks to others, you are honorable. You are even more honorable when you take the risks of others.   5/n Permalink 11:55 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (cont) + plouc + de souche + marche a coté de ses pompes + petit con (the “petit” is central) Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This said there are a lot of words in French I know that have no (potent) equivalent in English which come to me in Fr: + vivotter + glander + minable + tête à baffe Permalink 10:41 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This does’nt make “selfishness” honorable. Nature has no junk: it recycles & makes fertilizers out of animal & human waste. Likewise society recycles somewhat selfish pursuits as fertilizer. So we should not be glorify selfishness, no more than we do w/excreta. 4/n Permalink 10:08 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling. In that sense I prefer people to focus Mandeville who inspired Adam Smith’s “it’s not the benevolence of the butcher…” A good society is one that via scale transformation makes a virtuous collective out of somewhat selfish individuals. 3/n Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb a hero who serves the collective (expected return is negative as 999/1000 will fail) and there is no such thing as a “failed” entrepreneur; I subscribe to virtue ethics and Christian morality which makes some of her stances repugnant to me both as a Christian & a Classic-ist. 2/n Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I do share a lot of readers with Ayn Rand and there are some commonalities: 1) To do good, focus on your own business, 2) Bureaucrats are evil, etc. But there are yuuuge differences. I do not believe that individuals should be “selfish”, I do believe that the entrepreneur is 1/n Permalink 9:56 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Should be illegal!   Permalink 9:46 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@zmpng Breaking a 24h fast with squid ink paella. Does @nntaleb approve? Permalink 9:11 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The point is not about Trump but the system. I can easily understand why someone can hate Trump. But changing the rules under asymmetries effectively destroys the system. Permalink 5:49 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb My take: Collusion between two parties needs to emanate from an explicit transaction or a well defined offer, not something vague in a conversation. It should be subjected to the same standards as contractual obligations. Otherwise everything can be interpreted as collusion. Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Bottarga with rosé. Permalink 3:29 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@MarkAmesExiled “The Houthis were only nominally Iran’s surrogates, but they were also our quiet partners against al-Qaeda.” Uncanny how often we try to wipe out Al Qaeda’s enemies   Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or is this Ukraine thingy a pathological delusion? Read the transcript.   Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Blunder duJour: Was telling someone on the phone in French “you gave me invaluable advice” (abt food, of course), came out as literal translation “un avis sans valeur” which means “an opinion of no value” & realized after hanging up. Wonder if I will ever get more food tips. Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapouri, Med version Permalink 1:30 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@rperezmarco “When the scientist points at research the imbecile examines the number of papers” (you can quote me for this one).   Permalink 2:50 AM – 24 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Actions > words. One of the best rules I know. Permalink 11:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

NNT Brazil, Russia 2019 | Youtube

Published on Sep 6, 2019
Nassim Taleb: “O Brasil é o país do futuro. Não precisa de boas pessoas, mas de um bom sistema.”
NNT audio only:


Published on Aug 26, 2019

The WorldSkills Conference 2019 started at important debate between Nassim Taleb and Dmitry Peskov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation on Digital and Technological Development and Director of the department «Young Professionals» of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives. The experts discussed about the risk-engineering and its benefits for creating better management tools and and building a strong competitive economy.
NNT audio only:


Evolutionary Biologists, Ayn Rand, Dawkins, Quilettebeciles, Nate Silver, Mosquitos, Bolton, Pinker, Nudgeboy, Pencilwits, Brasil | Twitter


Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference.

Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence (Hattip Dave Lull)

@nntaleb We had DNA evidence that the ancient Egyptian ruling class came from the North. Socks-with-scandals places them somewhere around what is now Central Germany.   Permalink 2:55 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) People have no problem getting Nietzsche, Le Bon, & other’s point that crowds composed of sane individuals can go crazy. It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals. Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) These simple comments by the 2 fellows destroy +5 decades of evolutionary psychology/biology, etc. I mean really shatter current methods. Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Please do not respond to my claim that “(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb” by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or “he says everybody but me is dumb”. Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc. You will then see the gravity.   Permalink 1:46 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Actually this is a chapter in #SkinintheGame Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Do not mess with him.   Permalink 10:33 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I would tell him that he should feel lucky. Compare these to the worst possible nightmare: an association with Ayn Rand.   Permalink 10:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@MuserMarco His argument is basicallly that because of nonlinear effects the macro (group) cannot be explained by the micro (individual). A group is not just a bunch of individuals. Or in other words, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Permalink 8:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Caro Bret, This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs. Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 7:51 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Cheese Galettes with halloumi & kashkaval made by Syrians from Raqqa (Beirut highway). Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@ProBucks_ “naive interventionism” proving detrimental in yet another complex system with long lasting unintended effects. @nntaleb   Permalink 10:36 PM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The art and science of drinking with Russians. Permalink 11:09 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vitello tonnato with squid ink. #OnlyinMoscow Permalink 8:12 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@GeorgeJNasr #Pedophrasty: Argument involving #Children to prop up a rationalization, & make opponents look like assholes. Nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the #news.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Why is it wrong to be a “group selectionist”, @BretWeinstein ? You do not have to defend yourself ag. the BS vendor @sapinker. The 2 journalists Pinker & Dawkins have been barking/bullshitting w/o showing flaws in Nowak, Wilson et al. #Multiscale & aggregation. @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 5:07 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapuri Permalink 4:04 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don’t know it. Permalink 12:11 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty is spreading   Permalink 12:00 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb водка Permalink 1:35 PM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great John Gray explains that Christianity is, basically, secular humanism.   Permalink 9:15 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dawkins, as exected, another fake scholar.   Permalink 7:47 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@RickyDelFuego Next phase begins when the kids start reading @nntaleb and realize the reason no one listens to the “educated” is because someone who collected $100,000 in debt to get a PhD in “empathy as communication” or whatever isn’t worth listening to.   Permalink 7:14 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid   Permalink 4:12 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@PaulSkallas ”If your private life conflicts with your intellectual opinion, it cancels your intellectual ideas, not your private life.” Permalink 5:53 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And “psychologist”.   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@GuillermoBurr The results are so aberrant and childish that they remind me of Dr Malcolm in the movie Jurasic Park. When he is informed that all dinosaurs are female and that they cannot breed, he answers: life will find a way (sic) Permalink 4:46 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@Vasilis48814362 When I finished black swan, I felt good, but also in panic because I could not believe for once someone was right on pretty much everything. The smear articles online only worsened this panic.   Permalink 4:27 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@holland_tom One is a work of Protestant theology. And one is by me!   Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “it is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most convincing evidence that the psychology of happiness is total BS is to meet “happiness” “expert” psychologists in person.   Permalink 9:31 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@normonics looks like I’ve been using “moron” where I should have been using “imbecile” Nassim gets it right again Permalink 7:41 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@RobRastapop Of all writings I love only that which is written in blood. Nietzsche Not everything that happens, happens for a reason. But everything that survives, survives for a reason. @nntaleb Permalink 6:04 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism means skin in the game and personal accountability @nntaleb   Permalink 5:36 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@AssalehAmer The Bed of Procrustes,   Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A #Lindy drink. So is its (mild) hangover. Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@john_f_hamer “Just as dyed hair makes old men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb Permalink 4:12 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@themintmag “Every time I have questioned these methods I have been abruptly countered with: “they have the Nobel”, which I have found impossible to argue with.” – @nntaleb Hence the need for the #NotTheNobel. Econ is not a science. Vote for a fresh thinker today!   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “What they call philosophy I call literature; what they call literature I call journalism; what they call journalism I call gossip; and what they call gossip I call (generously) voyeurism.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2:13 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@sean_a_mcclure Many lack the scientific literacy needed to understand the IQ debate. I wrote this conceptual article to help those ill-equipped to form an educated opinion on a massively important topic.   @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik #science #psychology ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nabilshadman @nntaleb said “Learning is rooted in repetition and convexity, meaning that the reading of a single text twice is more profitable than reading two different texts once.” Permalink 11:00 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@birdxi1988 Jus realize this is extremely important. Not only in psychology but also in finance. This debunked various kinds of CAPM related regression. Eg, Fama–MacBeth regression(for risk premium). Same situation as here: return(fat tail) is regressed over beta(thin). E(R^2) is zero!   Permalink 10:18 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the Negroni’s 100th anniversary. (in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere. Permalink 8:53 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@willianadamczyk “Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsability”. @nntaleb , 2012 Permalink 8:02 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@kudra_1 “Pedophrasty,” coined by @nntaleb: Using children to “prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children.”   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@JYuter I’m old enough to remember when people called for civility when someone died (and that’s assuming it’s true)   Permalink 4:18 PM – 17 Sep 2019

@garyruskin U.S. Right to Know investigates big food and agrichemical companies. We expose what they want to hide. We stand up for our right to know what’s in our food. Please contribute today:   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@venksaiyan Something @nntaleb has been saying for long. Theory often follows Invention.   Permalink 1:25 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@sjourdan This new edition of #incerto is beautiful. @nntaleb rocks. Permalink 10:21 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@exergiovanni I thought religion was irrational. Thanks to professor @nntaleb I changed my mind diametrically. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is not an “error”: this is genetics. Higher dimensions are really unpredictable. Permalink 3:25 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “I am never bothered by normal people; it is the bull***tter in the intellectual profession who bothers me.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:33 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to not realize that so many “noble” pursuits (academia, service, anything where one is paid with “honors”) are zero-sum. And wealth pursuits, outside of rent seeking, aren’t zero-sum.   Permalink 12:42 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Joey Automata: you need the Quilettebeciles to keep posting complaints about you, not the reverse. Keep irritating them, don’t reply TO them.   Permalink 9:55 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are other errors… the person who put the cheat sheet together is not familiar with probability. Permalink 8:17 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “thinking like Nate Silver” part is a red flag.   Permalink 8:13 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vegan is Halal, not the opposite. Much more asymmetric that you think.   Permalink 6:50 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@sustain05 Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@_benoux_ For those who still don’t get it. Let’s use an another example: @nntaleb published an excellent book, “SKIN IN THE GAME”. A figurative title consolidates a background in probability & statistics. He didn’t name it “Enlightened Reason & Science of Risks in Humanism” (Pinker-like). Permalink 5:36 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile Permalink 4:38 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is the only compliment that counts, not that I actually agree with the designation “ash*” as a proxy for uncompromizing.   Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we need 3 more applicants for women scholarships for RWRI 12 in New York Oct 24.   Permalink 9:29 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@BLebnene L fasel l 20 min kteb Le Petit Prince bil Libnene bil 7arfen l 3arabe wil Letiine! Tarjamit @HsenAndil الفصل ال20 من كتاب Le Petit Prince باللبناني بالحرفين العربي واللاتيني!   Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@zkortbawy باللبناني”خَلّيك هَون Khallik Hawn” = “إبقى هنا Ibka Houna” بالعربي #بتحكي_لبناني_كتوب_لبناني @BLebnene Permalink 2:13 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sample   Permalink 2:48 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Northern Lebanese, from Zgharta.   Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@DrMichaelBonner For flexibility and clarity: Greek; For precision: a tie between Latin and Arabic; For sound: a tie between Syriac and Persian; For rhythm: Arabic; For intricacy: Sanskrit; For interesting texts: Greek, Aramaic, Syriac, and Armenian. For sheer mental exertion: Hieroglyphic!   Permalink 1:13 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This guy is good. And he knows his stuff.   Permalink 12:03 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, Bill Gates doesn’t get that neomania works with software with reversible errors, not with complex systems.   Permalink 9:18 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@Jaffer22915438 FWIW: Tulsi Gabbard had more traffic to her website during the Dem debate than any day since the last debate. Permalink 8:30 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@wrathofgnon We know that modern grains are far less nutritious than ancient grains. Turns out even our great-grand parents ate vegetables that were many times as nutritious as what we are eating today.   Permalink 8:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, “unforeseen outcomes”. When will IYIs learn that we don’t understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism? Permalink 6:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A reminder that neuroscience, psychology, etc. are NOT reliable, not citable, not useable for anything other than tenure & academic rent seeking.   Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 12:47 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR R^2 is expected to be 0 but in small samples it shows much higher value, here .98. Small is anything <10^8. (cont) Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man   Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:41 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Didn’t we put this, @normonics, in our Precautionary Principle paper? Where did it go? Permalink 11:20 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb You can’t industrialize, commoditize, & scale knowledge without destroying it at is core. Scholarship is fundamentally an artisanal-style pursuit. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@Contrepoints Face au terrorisme, les #neoconservateurs pensent pouvoir utiliser l’hégémonie politique, militaire et diplomatique pour façonner un monde à leur convenance. Pour @nntaleb, ils font trois erreurs constantes que @FredericMasCP nous explique. #Bolton #Trump   Permalink 11:06 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From experience, I haven’t seen erudites inside academia (few exceptions). By erudition, I mean solid knowledge (ancient languages, history, mathematics, literature-but-not-literary-theories) & naturally exclude knowledge of crap & theories written since 1924 in social “science”.   Permalink 10:17 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The association “juzur lubnan” is doing great environmental work; but it is named using loan words from Arabic. Should be renamed “Shlush Lebnén”. #Localism #StandAgainstArabImperialism Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Neomania in #Antifragile   Permalink 8:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “naturalistic fallacy” is not a fallacy outside the moral domain. Gabish? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I am scared of living in a society that doesn’t find it obvious that things perfected by nature over millions of years are scientifically speaking, safer than things made by some “scientists” in a lab. [Corrected] Statistically, the “large n” of nature makes it > scientific.   Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb No bureaucrats in peace discussions without some adult supervision. PRINCIPIA POLITICA   #Blackswanman   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:12 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb NEgotiation. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This was predictive: Black Swan Man tells Trump to have NO bureaucrat involved in ANY peace negociation. No bureaucrat in anything other than record keeping/clerical stuff.   Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man   Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:51 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@TheBobber Plant-based burgers may be “safe” but they are loaded with crap that Your Grandmother would not recognize and you would be wise (and healthier) to heed the advice of @nntaleb and avoid them.   Permalink 11:39 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The only honest scientific approach to a system as large and complex as the “climate” is one of acknowledging uncertainty, and proceeding with precaution   Permalink 6:13 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The incessant interventionism of @BillGates and his ilk is enabled by the pathological certainty generated by scientism   Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@city_affairs “The intellectual yet idiot is subscribed to the New Yorker” @nntaleb   Permalink 6:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@oskarth @nntaleb Squid ink in Venesia Permalink 5:53 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3rd is the Charm. This continues Cirillo & Taleb (2016, 2019), Clauset (2018) showing Pinker @sapinker statement on decline of wars is total BS. @BillGates shd read the scientific literature before peddling Pinker’s flawed journalistic book.   Permalink 5:06 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Good news: Jon Entine and the Genetics Literary Project are designed to intimidate and smear GMO skeptics. They kept spread articles on yours truly.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@financequant Got a big laugh in my class this afternoon. “In most sciences if reality and the model don’t match, then the model is deemed wrong. In economics that’s taken as evidence that there is something wrong with reality.” Thing is, I wasn’t trying to be funny. Permalink 5:24 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Excellent news. 40 years of sanctions… Enough unnecessary tensions. Had bureaucrats been involved, the 30 year war would have lasted 300 years.   Permalink 1:55 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Il faudrait le traduire en francais.   Permalink 1:32 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb France is listening to the idea that IQ is largely a fraud.   Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A French essayist watched me during a twitter fight. Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In Brazil met a fellow who plants trees for paper; claimed the 000s trees he planted yuuugely help the environment. STATIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book they cut a tree. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book, they plant a tree for 5-15 years. Use paper! Similar to ergodicity. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Since @davidgraeber is a target of Quilletbeciles, here is some information about their intellectual standards.   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I celebrate a certain class of events (Bolton’s demise, Pinker’s new BS) by drinking Советское шампанское, the only think left from the Soviet Union that still makes sense. Or rather, by taking a few celebratory sips then switching to vodka, arak, pastis.   Permalink 4:41 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In one word, you get Steven Pinker @sapinker and the Mickey Mouse version of Western thought. Never read anything about the enlightenment by anyone (1) insufficiently trained in Greek/Latin, (2) not familiar w/medieval thought, (3) not familiar with theology (comes with (2))   Permalink 1:37 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Another reminder that @charlesmurray is a fake scholar, without even going into his Bell Curve.   Permalink 1:15 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There goes my diet! Forgot about this plan to have champaign on the day Bolton is out.   Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb That’s the NYT. Trump not looking for regime change in Iran. Permalink 11:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Thank you.   Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Transitivity of correlation abused. An #Offshorecomic strip idea sparked by @nntaleb #correlation #IQ #transitivity #SocialSciences For more visit   Buy my here   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb IQ does not PREDICT career success. Now that I have the data, found the R^2 close to 0. Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: Better presented in a Log Log Plot. 15-25 dimensions exceed the computational capacity of the planet. DNA has 000s dimensions. Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@satyakatla What contrasts Taleb frm information theorists (ITs), IMHO, is that he does math mystical, finds physical significance, which I don’t see amongst my wireless (who does mechanically) and IT folks. I’ve had learned more math just by following Taleb than any coursework I had taken. Permalink 5:42 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Rates do not reflect probability but expectation: “recessions” can take many values. This is BS. Will add to the paper on the flaws in binarizing forecasts (cc:@spyrosmakrid )   Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: it always shows up. Here I illustrate it with norms. Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don’t work, etc. Permalink 5:16 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@QuintusCurtius Great thread. See @nntaleb rip into this historically-inaccurate, agenda-driven depiction of St. Augustine, who was of either Punic (i.e., Phoenician) or Berber ancestry.   Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 22 years of fighting for that simple point, everyone understands except social scientists, GMO shills, and ignorant risk peddlers . 22 years: How many fraudsters such as nudgeboy @r_thaler or Phil-the-rat Tetlock @PTetlock should we go through before we get that point? Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From 1997   Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Voila The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3 Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Added the tutorial on norms to the book (Chapter 3) to show what happens with higher moments of distributions. Permalink 5:13 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb David Blaine just tore a deck of cards in half —a real deck. Permalink 3:00 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of pencilwits didn’t get that it does not mean people always do things for money; it just means that those who are doing somthing “not for the money” don’t go out of their way to inform you of that fact. Blocked a bunch. Permalink 2:50 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb When someone says “I am not doing it for the money” he (she) is doing it only for the money. Permalink 9:54 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@QustnEverything Over 10 years since the last recession—this is a reason to be cautious; not complacent. From @nntaleb “The Black Swan” Permalink 9:30 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most humiliating moment: had (a long) dinner afterwards with the 3 cousins who spoke no English. Tried babbling in Portuguese, with help from a few Negronis, two caipirinhas &, of course, wine. At the end one of them complimented me: “how come you speak Spanish?” Permalink 1:44 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Because μεράκι I see as “soul in the game”   Permalink 3:51 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Is there a connection between the Greek μεράκι , the Lebanese mara2, (meaning enjoying some activity for its own sake, not the Arabic مرق meaning chicken broth), and the Turkish Meraklı? If so, where is the root coming from? Permalink 12:48 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@EmersonSpartz It’s pure laziness to think procrastination is caused by laziness. “Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.” -@nntaleb Permalink 10:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dunya guzeli   Permalink 7:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference. Permalink 6:03 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@apas .@nntaleb-like vignette. Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@NavariniLorenzo Italian ambassador to Austria, Sergio Barbanti, is citing @nntaleb’s Black Swan for opening a seminar on diplomat Nigra in Vienna! I guess that the lindy effect is, slowly, working Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@DrGeneCallahan Over-optimizations: Sterilized kitchens Avoidance of all possible allergens with kids Weight machines that isolate a muscle Work schedules with no slack Economies with no downturns @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness from the 70s to the late 90s, NY was not good-but-crap, rather crap-but-great. Permalink 8:08 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@thackerpd 1 5 Switching gears: Brief lecture on how #Monsanto tracks and works to counter reporters such as @sfoucart @stephanehorel @tristanwaleckx @gaellombart Document shows #Monsanto strategy w/ help from PR firm @PublicisGroupe to counter #MonsantoPapers   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the “CRAP BUT GOOD” category, there is an expression about Paolo Maluf: “Maluf steals but delivers” as he kept being reelected in spite of accusations of corruption. Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI.   Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Keep trying, blind idiots.   Permalink 4:12 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Don’t judge a city by bureaucratic criteria like traffic jams, cleanliness, safety, etc., but by something deeper in the soul of the place. Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom.” (“NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good”) Permalink 3:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of (tasty) meat in the Republica Federativa do Brasil. Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Churrasco Brasileiro Permalink 9:23 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Correction: Sao Paolo is pronounced like the French “saon”. Permalink 6:28 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sao Paulo Don’t be fooled by the orthography. “Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”. Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sidley Austin did nothing “illegal”. But smearing, targeting, mobbing, and lying are UNETHICAL practices. Unacceptable! Boycott/Blacklist Sidley Austin.   Permalink 3:31 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@adrianaleboss @BLebnene Permalink 10:28 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@JoshHochschild This price is back.   Permalink 7:50 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Mangan150 Why is Vegetable Oil in EVERYTHING? | The History and Corruption Behind Processed Oils   Permalink 5:17 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you have been employed by someone (Trump, Hillary, or Joey The Knife) as a personal assistant, it is yuugely unethical for you to ever divulge what you saw or heard in that capacity. (Except, of course, if you are subpoenaed, witnessed murder, were asked to commit a crime…) Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@ishirubi It’s September now. Usually, habitually I still buy notebooks and pens for myself. This year it’s different. Grabbed the book for a second round, reading preface, chills chills chills. Looks like I forgot a lot since January. Here we go! #rereadincerto #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 12:59 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Prof_BearB Following in the footsteps of Cirillo and Taleb (2016) and Clauset (2018), I hasten to note :-) Thank you, and thanks for the shout-out!   Permalink 12:39 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If these finance “academics” could predict they would not be academics. The only thing they know is how to become academics.   Permalink 6:49 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 2:54 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you lose money, it can be bad luck. It you blow up, it is certainly incompetence. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 2:39 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. If you lose money, it can be bad luck. If you blow up, it is never bad luck.   Permalink 2:32 AM – 4 Sep 2019