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Saudi Arabia, IQ, U.S. Academia, David Graeber, TRUE WEALTH, Harari, Nate Silver,@BallouxFrancois, #RWRI 14 | Twitter

Taleb, le penseur qui va changer votre vie (pdf)

We discuss 1) the errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics, why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks, 2) how evidence based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks, 3) the risks of morbidity must be accounted for 4) how the dangers of vaccines do not scale.

@nntaleb What’s the betting market for Saudi Arabia before Nov 1? Permalink 2020-09-11 21:58:13

@nntaleb Beirut Airport. 100% go through PCR testing before entering, on top of the need to produce a 72h test. I believe that overactive testing (even if high error rate) + masks + constraining superspreaders effectively allow you to keep functioning. Cheaper than lockdowns. Permalink 2020-09-11 19:50:11

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew then). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:44:41

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew than). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:41:40

@nntaleb Fuck, no. This is fake credentials to het benefits. Permalink 2020-09-11 17:40:19

@nntaleb En route to the Phoenician coast. I am told that this may prevent jet lag. Permalink 2020-09-11 14:54:44

@nntaleb 2/ Yes, nitpickers & other idiots, such a filter will fail to select people who got recently infected. But the point is not abt individuals, but the system. All you need is the growth rate to collapse. Fewer pple infected ➜ fewer pple infected ➜ Fewer Permalink 2020-09-11 09:53:28

@nntaleb CHROMOCLASSIFICATION is absurd, infused with political motivations & exploited by groups leeching on the historical suffering of a certain group. Instead use “historically disfavored groups”. Americans from Indian origin have the highest income, shd be excluded. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:44:56

@nntaleb On a transatlantic flight: every passenger & crew member must be COVID negative (w/72h test validity). Overactive testing is the solution. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:38:21

@nntaleb Ahla!!!! Permalink 2020-09-11 00:49:48

@nntaleb Ahla! Min wén hiyyé? Permalink 2020-09-10 21:15:48

@nntaleb This also confirms. But I initially got 1/48 analytically Permalink 2020-09-10 14:17:50

@nntaleb 1/42 Permalink 2020-09-09 20:17:26

@nntaleb Excellent! Permalink 2020-09-09 17:33:27

@nntaleb Something like an amuse-gueule Permalink 2020-09-09 15:34:59

@nntaleb The first Livias were Swedish and/or Swiss Permalink 2020-09-09 12:43:49

@nntaleb Qual è il tuo personaggio preferito in “Commissario Montalbano”? Permalink 2020-09-08 19:55:22

@nntaleb I like it that John Clesse likes my books. But I like it much much better that he both likes my books and hates Pinker’s. Permalink 2020-09-08 18:56:14

@nntaleb Doesn’t mean infinite mean deviation. Only that the 2nd moment is undefined. Can explain next #RWRI Permalink 2020-09-08 18:53:38

@nntaleb How many people on the *true* left disagree with this? Permalink 2020-09-08 12:24:50

@nntaleb All #Ponzi schemers enter a phase of denial. #RiadPonzi Permalink 2020-09-08 12:23:19

@nntaleb Too much diversity among doctors. Permalink 2020-09-08 12:07:53

@nntaleb Another interesting thing: Tower of Babel is migdal Babel in Heb. Same as “Majdl l 3a2oura” or مجدل عنجر @Marcellenassif @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-08 11:59:01

@nntaleb 13 ½ years after The Black Swan someone formally investigated my statement about the tail difference between SCALABLE (authors) and NONSCALABLE (dentist, prostitute) occupations. Permalink 2020-09-08 11:36:36

@nntaleb Swimming distance. Me too. Permalink 2020-09-07 18:45:33

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL CONFUSION DU JOUR: TOWER (πύργος) A Is the Homeric Greek πύργος origin for برج burj, (itself perhaps from Urartian) via Syriac ܦܘܪܓܳܘܣ or ܒܘܪܓܐ or is there a common root? [BrgiBorges, Borgia] B What is the connection to a) appearance b) divination [See below] Permalink 2020-09-07 18:40:21

@nntaleb Are you in Cyprus now? Permalink 2020-09-07 18:04:34

@nntaleb Block trolls. Permalink 2020-09-07 16:39:18

@nntaleb CLueless Permalink 2020-09-07 16:24:48

@nntaleb Summary thread. A forecast MUST account for its own error. Since small probabilities are convex, uncertainty raises them. Nate Silver & Phil the Rat🐁 @PTetlock didn’t get that ALL methods end up converging to the same price (Tetlock🐁 never understood the Brier Score). Permalink 2020-09-07 15:27:20

@nntaleb L tarjamé taba3 Google Permalink 2020-09-07 15:16:58

@nntaleb Friends, do we have data on COVID infection rates for flight attendants & others from exposures in airplanes? Thanks. Permalink 2020-09-07 11:15:53

@nntaleb We have plenty, in Greek and Latin. Permalink 2020-09-06 20:09:45

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, populations are not defined by nations. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-09-06 19:50:23

@nntaleb Jaydeh hiyyé modernista te3rib! Mni7a bleghghetna! Permalink 2020-09-06 19:23:51

@nntaleb Lebnen: Men l Ponzi lal Te3dir (Antifragility) by @BLebnene Permalink 2020-09-06 19:21:42

@nntaleb Much of the problems of modernity is taking religion literally and science metaphorically, rather than the reverse. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:47:21

@nntaleb “We” changes over time intergenerationally. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:43:39

@nntaleb 2) thread Permalink 2020-09-06 16:31:06

@nntaleb A Phoenician revival in Sicily when AUB trained-inspired Orientalistidiots-Arabista-mononculturistic fascists & halfrained thinktank losers are trying to repress it in #Lebanon as a “sectarian” thing. Permalink 2020-09-06 16:30:26

@nntaleb RWRI slides Permalink 2020-09-06 13:58:42

@nntaleb If you are going for squid ink, Beirut is better. If you are going for Data Science, another story. Permalink 2020-09-06 13:35:36

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink 2020-09-06 13:34:50

@nntaleb Try the $49.95 worldwide guaranteed price at the Scribe store @zachobront Permalink 2020-09-06 12:37:19

@nntaleb Squid ink in Cyprus is indeed one of the best. But Beirut’s squid ink is better. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:34:10

@nntaleb Bent’s reply. Never engage in a large scale project without looking at his work on overruns. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:28:58

@nntaleb Today’s tools used by IQ mongers such as the mountebank @charlesmurray (of the bell curve) have the same statistical validity as Le Bon’s cranium theories. And academics swallowed it. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:27:30

@nntaleb In a lectshur presenting AF Permalink 2020-09-06 12:22:42

@nntaleb God created IQ psychologists and economists such as @GarettJones so we can teach classes on their mistakes & teach how to not be fooled by data. #RWRI PS- National IQ is a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:59:16

@nntaleb You must make lemonade out of every lemon. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:44:43

@nntaleb 2ri 3an Wittgenstein’s Private Language Argument katabo Saul Kripke. Permalink 2020-09-05 22:25:29

@nntaleb I want to help! Permalink 2020-09-05 21:57:42

@nntaleb Not with a good risk management system Permalink 2020-09-05 20:32:42

@nntaleb No, the first is the right one. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:29:46

@nntaleb Not quite true: It had to be a synonym in Classical Arabic at the time of Mutanabbi, as shown in his famous poem against the then ruler of Egypt. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:27:48

@nntaleb Farayya. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:23:28

@nntaleb Friends, does Jan 11-22 work for #RWRI 15? Permalink 2020-09-05 19:05:40

@nntaleb Harry has an exemption. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:57:11

@nntaleb Also it was in jest. Paganism does not have a definition. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:43:33

@nntaleb Thanks Bent!!! Permalink 2020-09-05 17:15:34

@nntaleb Not yet Permalink 2020-09-05 16:32:04

@nntaleb South Italy is East Med: same culture same people Permalink 2020-09-05 16:29:34

@nntaleb If you don’t like truth, fuck off. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:20:51

@nntaleb Do you realize that Spanish will soon be banned? Permalink 2020-09-05 16:16:35

@nntaleb I admire his Gadness but he lives in the wrong place. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:15:18

@nntaleb Why I bailed out of U.S. academia. Anyone who is still in it by choice is a moron & those trapped there for lack of other options are total losers. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:14:34

@nntaleb New York bagels are better. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:06:43

@nntaleb Went fast (unless there is a typo) Permalink 2020-09-05 14:53:27

@nntaleb Saturday morning relaxation in memory of @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2020-09-05 14:41:43

@nntaleb 3)#Lebanon #LebanonProtests #Bisridam Permalink 2020-09-05 13:52:30

@nntaleb Bent @BentFlyvbjerg, can you show us a simple graph of cost overruns for dam projects? You will be helping debunk the @Gebran_Bassil “helping the poor” narrative. Ignoring other tail risks… (Bent is THE world’s foremost specialist on megaprojects cost) Permalink 2020-09-05 13:42:21

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-09-05 13:21:45

@nntaleb The World Bank fragilista IYIs do not have a good track record in understanding the cost-benefit tradeoffs of such projects. The Besri Dam represents a yuuuuge irreversible environmental blight w/no tangible benefit, mis-marketed & misrepresented as “helping the poor”. Permalink 2020-09-05 12:23:58

@nntaleb You bet Permalink 2020-09-04 22:37:24

@nntaleb High variance != fat tails. Tails risks are no different from what they were before. Perception is a bit higher . Permalink 2020-09-04 20:40:08

@nntaleb You are a vile, despicable person, @Frances_Coppola. David Graeber’s body is still warm & he is defenseless. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-04 18:38:48

@nntaleb Blocked the idiot. Permalink 2020-09-04 15:18:28

@nntaleb COVID Risk Conversation with @yaneerbaryam. At the end I explain to Yaneer that my background is much nicer; he should add books or, better, hang cooking instruments behind him to make it more jovial. Permalink 2020-09-04 14:35:47

@nntaleb Alternative, if the typo is 1 Permalink 2020-09-04 14:08:10

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-04 13:22:54

@nntaleb The entire point of Antifragile is that we do not make decisions based on probability but a combination that ALWAYS includes payoffs. In that sense proba <<< time expectation [ergodic] So tried to Lindify by reversing the damage done by frauds, usually psychologists (Tetlocks). Permalink 2020-09-04 12:05:18

@nntaleb Morning workout. Please avoid special functions. Permalink 2020-09-04 11:03:37

@nntaleb Not necessary, implied for I not for II Permalink 2020-09-04 10:12:45

@nntaleb Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb via @YouTube Permalink 2020-09-04 01:28:09

@nntaleb 8 ½ years after #Antifragile. Not bad. Permalink 2020-09-04 00:12:30

@nntaleb La methode Salafi a cause des deites semites! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:28:51

@nntaleb Tshrin msh October! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:26:18

@nntaleb Fété7? Wéyn? Permalink 2020-09-03 19:57:35

@nntaleb Sleep well! I manage now between 7 ½ and 9 ½ Permalink 2020-09-03 17:57:26

@nntaleb Bataille Royale bil jazal. بس شوي هدّوا يا شباب في بروتوكول ! Permalink 2020-09-03 17:44:07

@nntaleb انا كمان ما بمبسط بهيدا الحرف Permalink 2020-09-03 17:42:15

@nntaleb David Graeber He was a real intellectual; very real: not one fake cell in his brain, not one fake bone in his body. He thought independently. He was monstrouly original. He had intellectual courage. The world seems much much smaller today than before Sep 2. David, RIP Permalink 2020-09-03 17:20:12

@nntaleb 3esh miyyé w sntein! Permalink 2020-09-03 15:45:23

@nntaleb Wrong also about many other things… Permalink 2020-09-03 14:59:16

@nntaleb How much does it sell for? Permalink 2020-09-03 14:58:43

@nntaleb Maybe “promoted” would fix? Permalink 2020-09-03 11:30:04

@nntaleb Hi, maybe some day but too hard to put together. Permalink 2020-09-03 11:23:00

@nntaleb Bear @Prof_BearB is a diplomatic & polite fellow saying what I have been saying in my own way (that is, less politely): that @sapinker is, scientifically speaking, a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-03 10:33:28

@nntaleb The red is… bottarga? Permalink 2020-09-02 21:31:08

@nntaleb Did you @STEPHENPUNWASI intentionally reverse the meaning of the tweets by @ndehouche ? Permalink 2020-09-02 20:43:55

@nntaleb Minute 9 he explains how it was modeled after Law School of Beirut @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-02 19:56:04

@nntaleb The part Jewish… it was not too differentiated at the time. Anyway I read somewhere that the Talmud was an imitation of the Beirut disputatio method (given that the Jews wanted no Roman law, yet wanted to emulate). Will find source & revert. Permalink 2020-09-02 19:49:00

@nntaleb Harari was created so that psycholophasters like @sapinker seem intelligent. Permalink 2020-09-02 17:13:52

@nntaleb Why Severus Alexander? Permalink 2020-09-02 17:06:06

@nntaleb Actually this picture in Lebanon is close (a winery in the Batroun district). Permalink 2020-09-02 16:47:31

@nntaleb Yes, the preparation requires it! Permalink 2020-09-02 16:38:00

@nntaleb They would use a technology, medical treatment, squid ink recipe, or scientific result conceived by someone considered morally repugnant. But they will “cancel” an actor/politician/mediaperson/ standard academic. Let it sink in that some pple are both superfluous & v. dependent Permalink 2020-09-02 16:00:00

@nntaleb هيدا محتال فنّاص كمّل عليه Permalink 2020-09-02 13:23:47

@nntaleb Squares. Don’t work with infinite kurtosis. Permalink 2020-09-02 12:50:46

@nntaleb Preparation for my trip next week, my own “return to the Med”. Permalink 2020-09-02 12:36:06

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-09-01 21:29:54

@nntaleb Isaac Levy, RIP Permalink 2020-09-01 21:02:45

@nntaleb Clearly, @dvoshart is a fraud, beyond his lack of scholarship & technical knowledge. I leave it to Maghrebi people to debunk his representation of their heritage & his exploitation of African people to make a political point. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:15:39

@nntaleb Somewhat messy; may have a mistake. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:10:55

@nntaleb A bit messy but here Permalink 2020-09-01 19:09:41

@nntaleb C’est pas le sujet du livre. Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:50

@nntaleb Where was that? Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:17

@nntaleb Ils ont massacré le titre Permalink 2020-09-01 16:49:03

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-01 14:53:44

@nntaleb Imbecile, it means it is vulnerable to the smallest disruption. Permalink 2020-09-01 14:41:55

@nntaleb The pandemic is not “unprecedented”. What is unprecedented is: FRAGILITY + PANDEMIC Our economic system has never been more fragile, more stretched, more vulnerable to small disruptions. @octonion Permalink 2020-09-01 14:37:44

@nntaleb Staged or real? Permalink 2020-09-01 13:50:25

@nntaleb For those of us locked-in because of the rain. Permalink 2020-09-01 13:27:24

@nntaleb Mine were GrecoPhoenicians Permalink 2020-08-31 20:49:21

@nntaleb Some job openings. A Greek-Orthodox Lebanese can’t be 1) president, 2) prime minister, 3) speaker of parliament, 4) governor of the central bank, 5) head of the military. Permalink 2020-08-31 20:00:37

@nntaleb Fat Tony: “Hating Trump and voting for Biden aren’t the same ting” * * Ting means “thing” in dialectal Fat Tonyism. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:52:20

@nntaleb Distinction without a difference. BS. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:45:41

@nntaleb BTW for people listening to this ignorant photoshoot Voshart, this is a period representation. Here my pics from the original at the Met. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:43:16

@nntaleb Voshart, nobody cares about your opinion on matters of scholarship. Maybe about food, photos, etc. But not anything related to scholarships/AI/statistical inference/rigor. I do not care to win an argument against you. Just letting pple know you are a fraud. Enjoy taking photos. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:22:35

@nntaleb Time to revisit (for entertainment) the Nate Silver Ignorance of Probability given that “Kolanovic Says Trump Re-Election Odds Soaring, Prompting Nate Silver To Melt Down On Twitter | Zero Hedge” More papers on how to predict elections under uncertainty Permalink 2020-08-31 19:14:59

@nntaleb Often make mistakes in that direction. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:07:55

@nntaleb TRADERS LORE: life is about the increment. When one takes a hit, suffers a personal/collective setback, must not look back. Losers look back. Look ONLY ahead &, when back in the saddle, you’ll get encouraged, even thrilled by the slope/improvement (1st derivative). Stock vs Flow. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:43:56

@nntaleb Warning abt the Roman Emperor pictures. @dvoshart is a photographer; clueless about AI, conditional updating, genetics, etc. In other words, pretty much a fraud. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:30:30

@nntaleb @dvoshart is a fraud. KNows nothing about AI or conditional updating. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:29:07

@nntaleb Yes, but for other reasons than “rights”. Because there are more effective alternatives. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:59:54

@nntaleb (Pseudo)libertarian minds have the intellectual nuances & logical refinement of somewhere betw. the unicellular amoeba & invertebrate sea slugs. And of course no notion of scaling of collective risks/dynamics & iatrogenics. In short: what I usually refer to as “idiots”. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:58:20

@nntaleb Oui mais c’est la réaction après! Permalink 2020-08-31 16:44:45

@nntaleb Any idea how many centimeters? Permalink 2020-08-31 15:04:56

@nntaleb 🙏 for your safety. Permalink 2020-08-31 15:02:29

@nntaleb Il m’a répondu qu’il n’y avait pas de RV. Alors qu’il m’avait envoyé l’adresse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:59:59

@nntaleb Il n’a meme pas annulé. Je me pointe chez lui, on me repond qu’il est au Maroc. Meme pas d’excuse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:40:01

@nntaleb 8 pages au total. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:39:23

@nntaleb L’article intégral (mais il ne faut pas dire au Point que je partage…) Permalink 2020-08-31 13:37:32

@nntaleb Elle etait presente. Il m’a posé un lapin une fois a Paris. L’année suivante je le vois a Saint Paul de Vence avec Arielle. Il essaye de me parler, je lui demande de ne pas me deranger. Une année apres les employés de l’hotel en parlent encore. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:01:26

@nntaleb Or the “g” where they talk about “manifold” Permalink 2020-08-31 12:03:14

@nntaleb J’ai eu une histoire avec BHL. Tres amusante. Apres mon café. Permalink 2020-08-31 11:47:44

@nntaleb Great Solution! Permalink 2020-08-30 15:21:20

@nntaleb La photo n’est pas très … Permalink 2020-08-30 10:54:21

@nntaleb The main problem with statistics is statisticians. Permalink 2020-08-29 16:48:51

@nntaleb The ArcSin law (Feller) Permalink 2020-08-29 16:23:44

@nntaleb Morning therapy [ROMANIAN MATHEMATICAL MAGAZINE] Permalink 2020-08-29 11:43:03

@nntaleb BS. Less than 3% but the reverse is true: Arabians with a Levantine origin. Permalink 2020-08-29 11:16:57

@nntaleb American Universities are going to be totally controlled by Robestpierristas (by the minority rule). I mean, totally, as there is no visible countermechanism. Sorry for the innocent funders of their endowments. Permalink 2020-08-29 00:07:43

@nntaleb Wait a week or so. Permalink 2020-08-28 23:55:40

@nntaleb 2) Kamal Salibi was literally a fiction writer (as patently shown in his theory of the origin of Moses). THe Marib dam population is another fiction. Any scholar citing him for anything historical is effectively a fraud. cc:@PZalloua We are debunking that crap with min effort Permalink 2020-08-28 23:54:50

@nntaleb This is TOTAL BS 95% population is local. The Maronites RELIGION came from near Apamea, the POPULATION is local. Sunnis is Lebanon have ~NO Peninsular origin. And the Druze are loca, and, if anything Anatolians. If there is a “foreign origin”, it is Anatolian for ALL >3000 y ago. Permalink 2020-08-28 22:08:12

@nntaleb Are you Erythrean? Permalink 2020-08-28 21:44:29

@nntaleb Twitter conversations can help develop an idea. Permalink 2020-08-28 21:39:28

@nntaleb You forget @normonics and an unnamed person (as yet) in government. Permalink 2020-08-28 14:48:34

@nntaleb Je vais m’y mettre alors. Permalink 2020-08-28 11:08:12

@nntaleb I know Hebrew Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:40

@nntaleb Please explain. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:19

@nntaleb The Gulf despises “Shamis” (Levantines) and they consider us pretenders & a highly impure race, so their form of antisemitism is directed towards Levantines. Jews don’t bother them as much. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:14:39

@nntaleb Yes the thing is about lithurgy, not culture. Ezra told me how he wrote in Judeo-Arabic, his father’s script. I could speak to him for 24 hours without noticing. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:10:57

@nntaleb Zilkha. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:05:18

@nntaleb Sephardic is not Mizrahi, as you well know! I remember Ezra Zilha insisting obsessively that he was not Separdic. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:03:54

@nntaleb Yes here it is. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:02:06

@nntaleb That’s not at all what he is saying. To the contrary. Permalink 2020-08-27 22:51:39

@nntaleb Meds not just Mizrahis. Also Alexandrians. They had duty free shops in NY and Paris, no? Permalink 2020-08-27 22:28:52

@nntaleb Almost right. The Farhis were political advisors… Permalink 2020-08-27 21:55:03

@nntaleb Not reliable in a train station with transit Permalink 2020-08-27 21:52:17

@nntaleb 3) The idea of the Brier Score is that you need to be *precise* hence minimize the error rate. Under maximal uncertaity it becomes betting at ½. Same with entropy. This is our response to Silver’s agent: Permalink 2020-08-27 20:07:43

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-27 19:54:10

@nntaleb In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:41:49

@nntaleb 4th paper abt my problem w/Nate Silver & that idiot @PTetlock over election forecasting. It’s (perhaps) refining my methodology & that of @DhruvMadeka Basically: Predictions must have #skininthegame hence MUST be subjected to arbitrage boundaries. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:39:41

@nntaleb 2/ Google Translate iza bit na22é shubit2ul ma fi ytrjem w l 3alam hon bidi3o shwayy. Baddak tékhedon w tjibon shwayy. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:28:21

@nntaleb Tweet deleted! Permalink 2020-08-27 19:24:50

@nntaleb This is an excellent intuition. Permalink 2020-08-27 18:09:53

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:48:32

@nntaleb You can condition mobility on that. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:32:28

@nntaleb Looks like the END. (If true, & you do not need that good a rate of false negative). Our circle saw the Covid problem when all these “expert” idiots where blind, failed to see the dynamics. Now we see the resolution when they are stuck in the past. Testing was the solution. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:30:33

@nntaleb Nothing racist. Damascus Jews are a distinct cutural group with merchant habits because they were traditionally excluded from the military. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:22:27

@nntaleb The end of the tunnel. So life can resume. (If this is true). And, I am certain, more such tests are on the way. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:05:21

@nntaleb Only 20-30 million people speak Koranic Arabic and none as a native language. Out of 1.5 bil. Permalink 2020-08-27 16:54:38

@nntaleb Look: Islam & Judaism kept the original language. Christianity did until Vatican 2 (or 1). Permalink 2020-08-27 16:37:45

@nntaleb Could be someone from Tyre as an author. They wrote in Greek. Permalink 2020-08-27 15:36:01

@nntaleb شي حمصي عم بردلون ياها Permalink 2020-08-27 15:21:18

@nntaleb Huwwé 7msé Permalink 2020-08-27 15:19:02

@nntaleb @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-08-27 11:29:47

@nntaleb ANCIENT PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: SIDONIANS There is an antology of jokes (Philogelos) compiled in the Hellenistic period. The butt of jokes are Sidonians who represent foolishness (something not attested elsewhere). Some of the jokes are remarkably modern. Permalink 2020-08-27 11:20:07

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-27 02:40:04

@nntaleb I meant a cut of the profits Permalink 2020-08-27 02:28:39

@nntaleb Aleppo was on the silk road. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:15:20

@nntaleb A Syrian joke: Put three persons from Aleppo in the same room; they will create a commodities market. Put three people from Damascus & they will form a political party. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:11:21

@nntaleb I was only employed for 7 ½ years in total, but in 1987 as a trader we had a cut and the job instability of entrepreneurs. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:08:45

@nntaleb “We don’t do Jobs” In 1989, a bunch of young Aleppo Jews arrived in NY, the last to leave Syria. A friend of mine went to greet them & offer help in securing employment: “We don’t do jobs” They started selling shoes in Harlem & the Bronx. 30 y later they all have yuuge mansions. Permalink 2020-08-27 01:30:46

@nntaleb Which joke? Permalink 2020-08-27 00:46:21

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-08-26 23:45:07

@nntaleb The skew decreased for those using Black Scholes. But most traders used their own intuitive pricing in the pits. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:53:51

@nntaleb Not really. There was a skew before for OTM. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:20:15

@nntaleb Hi John (if I may) It is explained much much better here Ciao, N Permalink 2020-08-26 20:38:24

@nntaleb En corse? @diankarlu Permalink 2020-08-26 19:27:34

@nntaleb Must be a station for travelers pple out of town Permalink 2020-08-26 18:07:14

@nntaleb Possible but more likely bad birth records Permalink 2020-08-26 17:45:51

@nntaleb Your harmless insult would have more value if you showed your identity (#Skininthegame). As such it is solely an expression of being a loser. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:35:45

@nntaleb Posting the errata for STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. The PDF will update next week. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:32:33

@nntaleb You can disagree without pathologizing him for being Jewish. The Thawra has NOTHING to gain from it. NOTHING. Grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:27:19

@nntaleb It is usually the real losers who play naked cowardly bigotry against a defenseless super-minority (Jewish). If you had any self respect, you would be showing your name. Try to be useful to the Thawra, grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:25:15

@nntaleb In #SkinintheGame I was shocked to see Italians eating at MacDonalds in the Milan train station: it’s abt lowering the variance, trading quality for certainty & reliability. It’s the same reason you hire employees: for their predictability/reliable mediocrity, never for quality. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:02:02

@nntaleb Has ALSO been tested by time. Permalink 2020-08-26 15:03:30

@nntaleb In Principia Politica: Permalink 2020-08-26 15:01:14

@nntaleb This is BULLSHIT. The term antisemite means targeting Jews specifically. You should be ashamed as it is a huge embarassment for the Thawra. Permalink 2020-08-26 11:53:12

@nntaleb Yes but I like to be free. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:56:48

@nntaleb I was approached for the board. I don’t do boards. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:45:01

@nntaleb Antisemitism is bad for Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:43:31

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class. Permalink 2020-08-25 21:02:48


@nntaleb Make a list of quacks and put him on it. It’s easy. Permalink 2020-08-25 19:06:18

@nntaleb Another signal. They add up. Wear a mask. via @business Permalink 2020-08-25 18:01:27

@nntaleb 1 year! Permalink 2020-08-25 17:44:55

@nntaleb Why the fuck does his background have anything to do with anything? This is SHAMEFUL. Delete your tweet. Permalink 2020-08-25 17:40:44

@nntaleb Waiting for the findings by @stan_yurin and the Shill Buster for the amusement. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:57:55

@nntaleb No, still the first. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:23:20

@nntaleb SILENT RISK, Vol 2 of the Technical Incerto Once you get the title right, the book writes itself. Permalink 2020-08-25 14:44:54

@nntaleb Yes otherwise you would have no MDs Permalink 2020-08-25 13:34:35

@nntaleb You are both right. A weak argument becomes a fallacy when used out of context. As with that FrancoOxford idiot & @BallouxFrancois Permalink 2020-08-25 13:11:48

@nntaleb “I am a professorrr at Oxford HENCE I understand RISK Hence I decide who does and doesn’t understand RISK”. Straight character out of #Antifragile, @JBerestycki is like one of those nuns lecturing street prostitutes on sexual positions & how to scam clients. #ExpertProblem #IYI Permalink 2020-08-25 12:16:29

@nntaleb 2/ And of course I do not mandate lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:11:07

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, read Hayek. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:03:15

@nntaleb This is shoddy journalism: the authors insists that Falwell was a Trump supporter. If someone who violates a moral rule loves watching Mickey House, Mickey Mouse now has a partial agency of the moral violation. [Journos violate this rule on both sides, as with Epstein.] Permalink 2020-08-24 22:59:30

@nntaleb Thanks Gary for helping him. Chap 3 is nontechnical Permalink 2020-08-24 21:18:00

@nntaleb There is no “real world risk”. It is risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 21:00:09

@nntaleb Or risk. This fucking idiot Julien Berestycki can make NO statement about risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 20:40:55

@nntaleb Equal weighted and rebalanced? Or rebalanced once? Permalink 2020-08-24 18:44:50

@nntaleb No, può sorgere con me. Mangio sempre trippa e la do agli ospiti. Permalink 2020-08-24 18:43:43

@nntaleb Block. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:56:41

@nntaleb So long as it is comprehensive, no. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:46:29

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-24 17:44:51

@nntaleb Thanks! Can you show us the clusters? Permalink 2020-08-24 17:39:55

@nntaleb A summary of my IQ piece. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:14:53

@nntaleb Download the PDF and print it Permalink 2020-08-24 16:28:54

@nntaleb Explain what you mean. Permalink 2020-08-24 14:10:35

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STAT CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping.… And remember the PDF is Free!… Permalink 2020-08-24 14:02:14

@nntaleb Baalbeck = Heliopolos, so very credible. Permalink 2020-08-24 13:51:01

@nntaleb Sorry but I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-08-24 12:58:08

@nntaleb This is not a “wall of shame” made by anyone I know. This is a Wall of Fame promoted by the anti-mask-virus-is-a-hoax industry, with a message to support their tweets. Gabish? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:57:38

@nntaleb You are not getting what fat tails mean here. It is the spread in the environment/disruption cascades Permalink 2020-08-24 12:42:14

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean by cannot invoke any credible mechanism? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:37:12

@nntaleb Neither Ioannidis nor Levitt (nor even clueless Balloux) are directly involved but there is a group of active astroturfers for the mask-denying-virus-is-a-hoax agenda. As w/Monsanto, could be traced to PR firm. Suspicion: someone w/investments in airlines/hospitality funding. Permalink 2020-08-24 12:29:40

@nntaleb If your prior is thin tails your posterior becomes fat tails after one single observation Permalink 2020-08-24 11:04:23

@nntaleb I will start a dialogue as follows (frm your site you seem trustworthy) We’re not saying this is worse than anything. Pls read our debate w/Ioannidis(a gntlman). Please comment honestly; I will not be upset if unlike Belloux you point at *precise* flaws. Permalink 2020-08-24 01:49:16

@nntaleb Mr Househ, I can engage you outside this conversation if you wish. Permalink 2020-08-24 01:22:43

@nntaleb Why didn’t you come to the last day of RWRI? Permalink 2020-08-24 01:19:34

@nntaleb @gabrielpeyre Permalink 2020-08-24 01:17:13

@nntaleb Beware statements like “it does not depend on the law of the entries”. Convergence is super-slow, only works at infinity. I show example in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, but with Fat tails (free PDF). Permalink 2020-08-24 01:13:09

@nntaleb Here is the hall of “experts”: 3-4 down out of 12 (includ. civilized debate w/Ioannidis), but others would be scraping the bottom of the pot. These “experts” are being used for backup by the politicized no-mask-virus-is-a-hoax mob (see from @BallouxFrancois’s feed). Permalink 2020-08-24 00:05:26

@nntaleb My friend, stamp tax in the UK made houses rich owing to CFDs (Contracts for differences). Permalink 2020-08-23 23:31:57

@nntaleb Mni7a Permalink 2020-08-23 21:21:58

@nntaleb Not related. Shammas is from an old pagan practice (Shams) means acolyte for both Christians and Mizrahi Jews Permalink 2020-08-23 21:17:35

@nntaleb When someone declares “I will not devote more time to this”, it is a guarantee he will spend more time on it. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:16:14

@nntaleb I mean garbiyo Permalink 2020-08-23 21:10:30

@nntaleb Plural? Permalink 2020-08-23 21:09:27

@nntaleb Yes, indeed. But I wonder why in Syriac North is Gharbiyo. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:05:10

@nntaleb Yes my interest is in EXONAMES given by the conquerrors as a geographic position w/reference to them. Sham is an exoname (relates to someone south of you). Maghreb is one. Anatolia is one. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:51:25

@nntaleb OK, OK, I made a mistake: there are some Dimashqi, but much much fewer than Shami. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:46:54

@nntaleb I meant in the vernaculars Permalink 2020-08-23 20:41:31

@nntaleb Yes that’s what I was looking for. @QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 20:36:49

@nntaleb No. Mikdash vs Mshkan. Easy for us to get (maskan). Permalink 2020-08-23 20:35:25

@nntaleb Relax, MSM. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:33:17

@nntaleb I was wondering when the name stopped and when it resumed. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:32:02

@nntaleb Was that name given during Nahda? Permalink 2020-08-23 20:07:37

@nntaleb Elia Capitolina. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:06:28

@nntaleb Or the Syriac, I don’t know if ܕܰܪܡܣܘܩܳܝܐ was used before Nahda. @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 20:02:08

@nntaleb After Nahda. cc:@QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 19:51:01

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The name Dimashq دمشق was almost never used in Ar. for 1200 y before Orientalists, but exoname “AlSham” الشام (“the North”). For Ottomans “Şam Sancağı” Hint: There are family names “Shami”, no “Dimashqi”. Same for Jerusalem: اورشليم was القدس.(=>Qudsi) Permalink 2020-08-23 19:48:10

@nntaleb Was in 2018 Permalink 2020-08-23 17:27:13

@nntaleb Lessons from the errors of @BallouxFrancois 1- RISKS: for 1 indiv. is the real of medicine/biology. Risk for a collective is statistical modeling. For >10^6, Extreme Value Theory. 2- ACTION: For indiv it is abt health. For collective, it is all about connectivity. Permalink 2020-08-23 17:07:28

@nntaleb That was March 11 Permalink 2020-08-23 16:22:39

@nntaleb In Berytus restaurants, Mazaher Permalink 2020-08-23 16:15:38

@nntaleb Yes he does not know how to calculate risk. Not at all. He conflates individual and aggregate. I saw numerous errors before yesterday. Totally clueless. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:59:36

@nntaleb “Please stop; please stop!”… “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t yet know what he is getting into. This is just the prologue. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:38:23

@nntaleb 4/ Please be careful about the “Sweden argument”. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:18:37

@nntaleb 3/ FALSE DICHOTOMIES: Economy vs virus. Most bus failures come from risk aversion. Nonlinearity: hosp capacity gets overhelmed. We are progressively learning abt the disease: BUY TIME, w/treatments improving, perhaps vaccine. Most effective: masks+superspreaders for now Permalink 2020-08-23 14:48:56

@nntaleb 2 Permalink 2020-08-23 14:40:08

@nntaleb Balloux has NO idea how to calculate risk, but not my point here: he give fodder to a crowd of crackpots. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:28:50

@nntaleb 2/MYTHS BY CRANKS a- “Masks are not effective” (using “sounds scientific” biology argument) b- Measures carry economic costs: no, it’s the VIRUS that’s costly [See debate w/Ioannidis]. c- “Death numbers are low” w/o realizing it is BECAUSE of measures. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:25:43

@nntaleb Friends, there is a mob of “COVID is not serious” (even hoax) politicized attack dogs w/no notion of science nor interest in it who tag to the very few play-the-system risk-clueless academics like @BallouxFrancois carrying THE msg that fits them. Any other compromised academic? Permalink 2020-08-23 14:03:59

@nntaleb Marsa= port en Phenicien Permalink 2020-08-23 13:40:57

@nntaleb Try Amioun outdoor cafés. I work there all the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:14:42

@nntaleb I fail to understand why all your cartoons make me morose and serious when I joke 99.999999% of the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:12:13

@nntaleb @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 13:09:59

@nntaleb L’accento siciliano è vicino all’arabo: p diventa b, o diventa u, c diventa g-q Permalink 2020-08-23 13:04:44

@nntaleb Cavendish, Wolfram. You need independence. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:01:29

@nntaleb Barli sicilianu? Permalink 2020-08-23 12:57:35

@nntaleb 10 – 12 episodi, per imparare il siciliano Permalink 2020-08-23 12:55:57

@nntaleb No. Permalink 2020-08-23 12:48:33

@nntaleb Il commissario Montalbano beve il caffè del mattino Permalink 2020-08-23 12:47:43

@nntaleb Now a ref for the genre (don’t quite agree w/Raoult rather w/his style) Raoult: “He is a kind of Nassim Taleb of infectious disease. He is brilliant, doesn’t feign false humility, & claims rather persuasively that he’s indifferent to many of his critics.” Permalink 2020-08-23 12:29:52

@nntaleb Same. It is never fun unless it is all together. Noticed t you were also MD. We had 2 of them. Permalink 2020-08-23 11:56:15

@nntaleb No but same thing for prof Permalink 2020-08-23 01:30:20

@nntaleb Very illustrative of power laws: at #RWRI we observed an 80/20 rule: we were ~ 100 & 20 people contributed to >80% of the discussions. Permalink 2020-08-23 00:12:23

@nntaleb Why? Permalink 2020-08-22 22:14:51

@nntaleb That “wouldn’t happen” Permalink 2020-08-22 21:04:47

@nntaleb Balloux, if there was a flaw in the paper Mr Curtis would have made a PRECISE point, as I did with you, not some vague comment about the presentation. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:58:47

@nntaleb Dave Curtis, imbecile, 1- Stat/math journals do not have impact factors comparable to medicine (there are 100 times more bullshitting doctors like you than statisticians). IJF is among the top. 2- Explain why I should care about what epidemiologists think? Permalink 2020-08-22 19:42:52

@nntaleb So why the fuck are you imparting statements I did not make? And opinions I DO NOT HAVE? OF COURSE known situation warrants a lower level of precaution (less uncertainty) and more targeted mitigation, no lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:17:12

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not about precaution but this idiot Francois ignorant about basic risk comparisons. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:12:08

@nntaleb 2) Many misunderstood. If I block you it does not mean I am upset, only that I don’t like noise on my TL. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:37:37

@nntaleb This it turned out is part of a bunch of shills from the Monsanto days against our GMO paper. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:36:43

@nntaleb You don’t know Wittgenstein’s ruler. Can’t read as I’ve blocked that troll. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:57:28

@nntaleb Needless to say my solution is the least elegant here! Permalink 2020-08-22 14:40:17

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-22 14:35:57

@nntaleb Post #RWRI relaxation. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:05:52

@nntaleb He is not blocked. You’re the idiot. Ha. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:34:49

@nntaleb To figure out if someone is an idiot, call him an idiot and check if he gets upset. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:25:56

@nntaleb The take home is everything is convex from 0 up to a point. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:14:23

@nntaleb Risk is not his job, obviously. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:02:56

@nntaleb May get concave somewhere, not here & depends how you scale. Log[yield]= \alpha Log[size] so yield =size^\alpha here >1 hence convex at least within range, up till the Taylor limit. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:01:25

@nntaleb سلامتك! Permalink 2020-08-22 01:51:36

@nntaleb Impressive! Permalink 2020-08-22 00:56:18

@nntaleb Compare to last year’s numbers… Permalink 2020-08-21 23:19:22

@nntaleb Your interlocutor was blocked for trolling. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:18:24

@nntaleb 5) And I DO NOT advocate lockdowns (except “in extremis”), rather controlling superspreaders, hyperactive testing, border control & forcing face masks. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:08:49

@nntaleb I see Boldrin on my thread whom I blocked for charlatanism. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:59:20

@nntaleb 4) When I call pple idiots, they have earned it, BSF (“BS-Frankie @BallouxFrancois). For every location, relative changes in Covid fatalities proved > 100 time higher than relative Δ road deaths. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:44:15

@nntaleb 3) Even without fat tails “BS-Frankie” @BallouxFrancois is failing elemtary statistics (Sat 101): comparing 2 variables with different variances (one very low, other very very high). Permalink 2020-08-21 22:06:26

@nntaleb 2) The other thing this marshmallowbrained “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t get is that the #of people who died from COVID accounts for mitigation & risk control measures. It’s like saying: we don’t need security checks since planes aren’t crashing. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:53:20

@nntaleb It is remarkable that you have idiots like this “Prof” @BallouxFrancois who conflate additive risks with multiplicative ones (fat tailed), a mistake your grandmother wouldn’t make. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:27:23

@nntaleb Education w/low tolerance for boring things. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:25:31

@nntaleb Yes < 1/4 could be an inequality. Being conservative with a square law. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:58:06

@nntaleb BEIRUT EXPLOSION at #RWRI: all abt CONCENTRATION & CONVEXITY It has nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with anything except concentration/scaling & 1/n rule of harm: If the Chernobyl plant was ½ the size, damage would be ~1/4. See #Antifragile #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-21 20:51:32

@nntaleb I keep repeating in the INCERTO: take stressors in the middle, be paranoid in the TAILS. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:46:11

@nntaleb 3 times distilled. Permalink 2020-08-21 19:24:26

@nntaleb It is actually finite mean because boundedness. But remote. ANd LLN is slow. Permalink 2020-08-21 14:41:24

@nntaleb If data can be explained by BOTH fat tails & thin tails, then it must be fat tailed. This is the Masquerade Problem: there is a hierarchy of distributions. Note: Every Power law can be explained ex post by a sum of Poissons. But a Poisson cannot be explained by a PL. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-21 14:21:39

@nntaleb Non car si on leve 400 livres la pression arterielle va a 30/15 donc on est SUR qu’il n’y pas de rupture possible. Comme un test de stress. Permalink 2020-08-21 12:44:18

@nntaleb Where is Musar? Permalink 2020-08-21 00:09:22

@nntaleb Wine. We want to see. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:58:49

@nntaleb 135… but watch out! the weights are loose. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:57:15

@nntaleb To sleep well: hedge all your tail exposures. #RWRI + hide nothing from your enemies + pay all your taxes, show the IRS all your income mother of all tail risks) + be uncancellable + back up all your data + have some gold (and/or BTC) but not too much … Permalink 2020-08-20 20:56:09

@nntaleb How high ? Permalink 2020-08-20 20:39:58

@nntaleb Indeed. Most asymptomatic people have “something wrong” in their MRI. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:32:51

@nntaleb It means that one may have centrist opinions on balance, but not be systematically in the center for EVERY issue. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:08:13

@nntaleb I fixed my own by lifting weight progressively Permalink 2020-08-20 14:45:08

@nntaleb Can you go bullshit elsewhere, please? Permalink 2020-08-20 11:09:55

@nntaleb You sleep better when you have tail risk hedges. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-20 11:01:17

@nntaleb and to thank @rperezmarco and @joe_shipman ! Permalink 2020-08-20 02:00:22

@nntaleb Forgot to thank you. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:59:34

@nntaleb I also run mine with water. Cleans the filter. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:43:04

#RWRI, Michael Levitt, Pinker, Kucharski, JACOBINISM, Diab | Twitter

COVID-19 brought socialism to America – Nassim Taleb | SophieCo. Visionaries
The COVID-19 pandemic came as an external shock, almost unprecedented. How can we navigate the uncertainty of the post-pandemic future? We talked to the author of bestselling books ‘The Black Swan’, ‘Antifragile’, and ‘Skin in the Game’, risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

@nntaleb 4/ PS- The argument that someone has a Nobel (particularly in an unrelated field) is EXACTLY the bad side of ad hominem. Permalink 2020-08-19 15:40:35

@nntaleb 3/ True humility (“humbleness”), Mr Levitt, @MLevitt_NP2013, is not in bowing to the “Nobel privilege”; it lies in understanding that we live in a world lacking certainties & acting accordingly, not risking lives via charlatanic claims. Permalink 2020-08-19 11:06:21

@nntaleb 2/ @MLevitt_NP2013 is offended that thanks to his Nobel privilege in… chemistry we shd bow to him for his ignorance in Extreme Value Th & probabilistic risk analysis. This is what we called the #CarpenterFallacy PS: Levitt forecast Israel <=10 deaths Permalink 2020-08-19 10:01:59

@nntaleb It is in there. The Koura is the southernmost part. Permalink 2020-08-19 09:46:14

@nntaleb Explains the culture of the Koura valley south of Antioch. Permalink 2020-08-19 02:50:39

@nntaleb Your seats reserved for the next RWRI. Permalink 2020-08-19 01:05:01

@nntaleb Back in stock. And link for the free PDF. If you want to save money, feel free to download & print. Permalink 2020-08-19 01:03:41

@nntaleb Blood pressure also rises Permalink 2020-08-18 21:56:44

@nntaleb We used to have physical fights before Zoom Permalink 2020-08-18 21:11:44

@nntaleb No, one needs to let others speak. Permalink 2020-08-18 17:31:20

@nntaleb Unreadable… Permalink 2020-08-18 16:49:35

@nntaleb Steve Wolfram. Permalink 2020-08-18 11:47:53

@nntaleb Bad quality! @zachobront Permalink 2020-08-18 11:10:49

@nntaleb End of book Permalink 2020-08-17 14:46:18

@nntaleb Jaffer is Palestinian. If he openly says that he will vote for Trump, you can expect many people classified on the left to do so, but covertly. Pardoning Snowden will draw many voters wary of the “deep state”. Permalink 2020-08-17 02:08:56

@nntaleb 2/ Can someone give an intuitive proof of the law of iterated expectations? Words only, no math. Permalink 2020-08-17 01:17:15

@nntaleb This reminds me of the statement “the probability is now 100%. But it could change.” Permalink 2020-08-16 23:19:06

@nntaleb How can you get in? US citizens are banned. Permalink 2020-08-16 23:17:48

@nntaleb Wrong heuristic/definition of wrgodicity Permalink 2020-08-16 20:37:08

@nntaleb Actually a lot of farmers from Asia Minor. Google it. Permalink 2020-08-16 20:18:32

@nntaleb If this works, outperforms any quarantine! More so if false negatives correlate to contagiousness. Permalink 2020-08-16 19:55:55

@nntaleb No… Permalink 2020-08-16 18:12:02

@nntaleb Scribes in Egypt Permalink 2020-08-16 14:12:03

@nntaleb To understand scaling in politics/economics/culture: Mediterraneans (olive oil pple) have traditionally done best in groups & organizations of size n. Creating large orgs/states= Procrustean bed. Discuss. Permalink 2020-08-16 13:39:56

@nntaleb Explain why it is the same word in Greek. Explain why it is relevant to my aphorism. Or shut the fuck up. Permalink 2020-08-16 13:30:15

@nntaleb We need a federal system. Last ditch solution. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:57:04

@nntaleb Nor did Pinker answer why he states Richardson’s analysis backward. Never corrected. Nor does he explain how an undefined (or infinite) mean can drop. #BSVendor Permalink 2020-08-16 12:44:25

@nntaleb The reason I said “dishonest” is because of other subsequent statistical analyses (like Clauset below) confirming our point: Pinker DID NOT answer them. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:41:30

@nntaleb A bunch of nitpickers making a historical distinction between “democracy” and “republic” irrelevant to the aphorism –like all nitpickers, fundamentally ignorant. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:16:11

@nntaleb My explanation. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:10:34

@nntaleb Interarrival time for large wars is 50-150 years, with mean deviation very high. Means he is talking noise. Permalink 2020-08-16 02:14:50

@nntaleb {1,1,1,0,0,0} and {1,0,1,0,1,0} have a ⅓ correlation. At the limit of n large, the CDF of a Bivariate normal in the positive quadrant for both variables. We can ignore the variance at root{n} because of symmetry. Permalink 2020-08-16 01:53:58

@nntaleb More evidence that 1) @sapinker is ignorant of statistics, 2) is dishonest about it. [Such reasoning (not the unethical part) is called the “Pinker Problem” in Stat Consequences of Fat Tails] Permalink 2020-08-16 01:50:44

@nntaleb My solution above is exact: 1/4 +\frac{ArcSin(⅓)} {2\pi} Permalink 2020-08-16 01:40:07

@nntaleb My solution is LOCALISM. Regional autonomy. No central state can work in Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-16 01:37:57

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-16 01:36:00

@nntaleb New formatting for Principia Politica (similar to Stat Cons FT). Now I wonder if it should not be in the Technical Incerto rather than the Incerto. It is not written in an essay language, but a more formal document. Permalink 2020-08-15 21:16:18

@nntaleb Excess death are ALREADY >200K over similar pasr periods (reported death rate <= true death rate, to do stats properly). And that’s not the fucking point: he would be wrong even if he got the number right. You don’t make claims of n=1 in high variance. Can’t you get the point? Permalink 2020-08-15 19:02:23

@nntaleb Democracy: representation by a very narrow selection of people whose principal attributes & skills are that they are very, very good at being elected. Permalink 2020-08-15 18:36:43

@nntaleb You are mistaking the necessary for the sufficient Permalink 2020-08-15 18:27:38

@nntaleb 1- I never take any advice from someone I didn’t ask for advice. [Rephrased] Permalink 2020-08-15 18:26:55

@nntaleb There are other tests of moments, or use of EVT that can confirm. Permalink 2020-08-15 18:03:23

@nntaleb Marshmallowbrain, death rates are already higher than 170k Permalink 2020-08-15 17:59:50

@nntaleb Why does anyone take Michael Levitt seriously? It’s not that his predictions are wrong (they are), but worse: it is unrigorous to engage in single point predictions (n=1) in a high variance &/or Fat Tailed environment. Permalink 2020-08-15 16:56:57

@nntaleb No idea. Unblocked. Permalink 2020-08-15 16:19:03

@nntaleb Per le distribuzioni normale e lognormale l’incertezza aumenta con l’ “orizzonte” temporale. Per le code grasse, l’incertezza è sempre massima! Permalink 2020-08-15 15:56:44

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, I am not removing people who disagree, rather trolls and people who engage in sophistry. Like you. Permalink 2020-08-15 15:39:36

@nntaleb Journos fail to get that Shiites can BOTH worship Nasrallah & want him OUT of daily government. How? The French & Brits both worshiped & voted out De Gaulle & Churchill resp. after the war. The French called De Gaulle back for the Algerian war. Permalink 2020-08-15 15:28:37

@nntaleb The problem with #RWRI is that 20% of attendees are return students, #growing every time, so we may converge to a 100% repeat. Permalink 2020-08-15 11:50:44

@nntaleb Jean, not true. N W Levant (Galilee to Antioch+ Damascus) has ~no Peninsular genetics (all Med-Anatolian) Bt Syria has tons in SE Saudi Arabia has 13% Levantine-Anatolian genetics which may have confused some, But no need for a Levantine nation-state: as w/Scandinavia. Permalink 2020-08-15 11:46:35

@nntaleb “Considered” is not a metric (revelation of preferences). How many did? More than other months? Permalink 2020-08-15 01:40:19

@nntaleb I just showed that our grandmothers know more probability theory and risk management than @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein. Permalink 2020-08-15 01:19:36

@nntaleb Essaye par SCRIBE pour $50. Aussi on doit deplacer lundi. 2e session marche? Permalink 2020-08-15 01:17:10

@nntaleb He added “Gabish” to the intellectual tradition Permalink 2020-08-15 01:03:41

@nntaleb Sorry! Permalink 2020-08-14 21:53:54

@nntaleb You are welcome to barge in any time. Permalink 2020-08-14 21:41:09

@nntaleb RWRI Permalink 2020-08-14 15:02:36

@nntaleb GDP is off Permalink 2020-08-14 11:23:21

@nntaleb This is mostly because Kucharski is a “peer-review” poseur does not understand fat tails & their consequences. Epidemiologists are stuck in a citation ring. See our discussion with Ioannidis. Permalink 2020-08-14 11:17:50

@nntaleb New grind Permalink 2020-08-14 11:11:46

@nntaleb Excellent service you are getting, namesake. The big boss is taking care of this. Permalink 2020-08-13 20:39:45

@nntaleb Sir Karl usually wears open neck sweaters. Permalink 2020-08-13 18:14:19

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-13 17:33:37

@nntaleb Covid models Optional #RWRI session with Diego Zviovich Permalink 2020-08-13 17:31:56

@nntaleb @dzviovich Permalink 2020-08-13 14:57:23

@nntaleb Not kidding. The publisher-facilitator makes a yuuuuge difference when you go for maximum quality, no compromise. Physical books are objects, not disposable items. @zachobront Permalink 2020-08-13 12:13:54

@nntaleb I told you so Permalink 2020-08-13 12:11:59

@nntaleb It is all in the olive smell and the paper quality. Permalink 2020-08-13 12:08:44

@nntaleb Friends, the book is back in stock on AMZN and below. We still guarantee the $49.95 for worldwide shipping. But I have a question: why the f*** are so many people interested in a technical book? Because of the colors? the olive smell? Permalink 2020-08-13 11:58:59

@nntaleb JACOBINISM Friends, in French Jacobinisms maps exactly to my nightmare: a centralized nation-state w/IYIs running it, coupled with a monolithic national identity (anti-localism, anti-minorities, anti-multiculturalism). What would be the corresponding English term? Permalink 2020-08-13 10:53:16

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile I spent ⅓ of my time in Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-13 10:44:29

@nntaleb Same as in Western Aramaic? Permalink 2020-08-12 23:48:37

@nntaleb In other words, better say “I don’t know” then “I now know” than say “I know”, then “I didn’t know”. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-12 14:42:38

@nntaleb RWRI 14 Online #RWRI 15 instructors, 12 in the room. Permalink 2020-08-12 14:29:18

@nntaleb “You exist in full if and only if your conversation (or writings) can not be easily reconstructed with clips from other conversations. “ Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-08-12 12:03:12

@nntaleb Ounce of precaution vs pound of cure Our precautionary approach to COVID has been to become progressively less worried as we got additional information. The WHO, newsidiots, & bureaucrats did exact opposite: acted more worried as they received more information. #RWRI #RWRI14 Permalink 2020-08-12 12:00:49

@nntaleb Med doors Permalink 2020-08-12 00:14:11

@nntaleb No comparison. Not close. Permalink 2020-08-11 21:41:15

@nntaleb Fucking idiot get your comparisons right. My readers do not barge into my living room or troll my other readers. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:50:22

@nntaleb He does not know what totalitarian means. A feed is a private property. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:22:00

@nntaleb There is nothing wrong with the “joke”. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:21:10

@nntaleb Done Permalink 2020-08-11 19:23:02

@nntaleb Diab is not evil, just v. naive. The myth is that ministers control ministries. Insiders (decades) can resist their control. The only cure is: Augean stable/smashing bureaucracies, & decentralization. Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. #localism Permalink 2020-08-11 12:15:37

@nntaleb It did not hit this moron @DavidDaoud that the fellow is not speaking Arabic but Levantine. Permalink 2020-08-11 10:24:54

@nntaleb Almost: All models are wrong, many are useful, some are deadly. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:43:51

@nntaleb There are scholarships. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:38:26

@nntaleb This time the ratio is much much higher. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:37:41

@nntaleb Slavic from where? Permalink 2020-08-10 16:47:55

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-10 10:34:30

@nntaleb Used to be Ba7r l Rum Permalink 2020-08-10 09:27:59

@nntaleb I can unblock Permalink 2020-08-09 22:28:00

@nntaleb Same. Permalink 2020-08-09 21:37:51

@nntaleb DIFFERENT VARIETIES OF PEACE Peace between Israelis & Palestinians cannot happen from the top (a la Oslo). Peace between Israel & Hezbollah/Iran can easily happen from the top because the tension is from the top. Permalink 2020-08-09 20:30:59

@nntaleb Some bitter imbecile I’ve blocked. Permalink 2020-08-09 20:27:09

@nntaleb Levantines in Mexico are fish in water. Permalink 2020-08-09 19:46:00

@nntaleb Nothing to do with Phoenicianism. Levant is part of Anatolia, a cluster Turkey-Armenia-Cyprus-Greece, our brothers in food, dance, genetic, etc. Permalink 2020-08-09 19:39:24

@nntaleb Spain is Med as hell Permalink 2020-08-09 18:49:43

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Mediterranean Again #MakeLebanonMediterraneanAgain And for our other Med brothers in the Levant #MakeTheLevantMediterraneanAgain Permalink 2020-08-09 18:09:07

@nntaleb No, no, no, please! Real reviews are of the type you just did: spontaneously and linked to YOUR understanding. Please continue the way you started. Permalink 2020-08-09 17:58:14

@nntaleb Triple imbecile you are not getting the point and it has NOTHING to do with books on probability. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 16:54:46

@nntaleb My first book review by a real user. Permalink 2020-08-09 16:52:45

@nntaleb Moving on is not geographic, idiot. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:34:25

@nntaleb No, fuck that. Probability. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:17:44

@nntaleb Family, imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:16:44

@nntaleb You don’t get the notion of neutrality? The judge should be one of the parties? Permalink 2020-08-09 14:15:30

@nntaleb You seem clueless. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:57:36

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:52:54

@nntaleb Yes government is using it to prevent riots but still can’t compare numbers. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:52:14

@nntaleb No double blind study. We need volunteers. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:48:31

@nntaleb UN Security Council: We require an independent investigation – Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-08-09 13:47:05

@nntaleb Good ideas about rent seeking. But he is no scholar. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:40:48

@nntaleb Family name? Can look up Permalink 2020-08-09 13:19:14

@nntaleb Blood disease markers match NW Greece. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:16:26

@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability (uses Gaussian metrics outside domain). All papers are flawed. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:54:40

@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:53:55

@nntaleb Many Maronites are Armenians, All Sunnis are of Rum origin. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:52:17

@nntaleb We had Russia before 1917. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:32:42

@nntaleb We the Rum do not consider ourselves “Greek” (a nation-state modern invention in the 1800s) but Romaics (Byzantine), closer to “Hellenistic”. That is, East Romans, un point c’est tout. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:31:43

@nntaleb Most Rum in the Koura are actually Macedonian in origin; Those in N Syria are Anatolian-Aegean Greeks. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:29:55

@nntaleb Please read the paper before rehashing platitudes. It is not our point. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:17:29

@nntaleb Science is not about naive “evidence”; science is about properties, some of which can be revealed by evidence. Our paper in the debate with Ioannidis. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:07:28

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 11:30:47

@nntaleb No, and not >= but strict equality. = 1 is an exponential (memoriless) Permalink 2020-08-09 11:02:57

@nntaleb INTELLECTUAL VERBALISMS Ms. Saad assumes that if people are fed up w/corruption, it *necessarily* comes from geopolitics, a US-concocted plot and neo-colonialism. No, Iranian influence is a native thing, not interventionism at all. Note: BTW, Iran is bankrupt. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:51:45

@nntaleb There is no “evidence” a spear through the skull represents significant danger, since I never saw a “peer-reviewed” paper to that effect. #EvidenceBasedBS #WearAMaskForTheSakeofOthers Permalink 2020-08-09 10:46:49

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-09 10:40:44

@nntaleb I block for bullshitting. You want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-08-09 10:39:08

@nntaleb My father found that (Ruffiè and Taleb, 1964) from rare blood diseases. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:35:35

@nntaleb \frac{1}{a} E(X | X>=a) >1 Permalink 2020-08-09 10:34:39

@nntaleb Comes partly from S. Italians and Etruscans being Anatolian, same as Canaanites. They came from the same place. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:28:44

@nntaleb Can’t compare because the latter number is a function of precaution. Permalink 2020-08-09 09:52:25

@nntaleb Kurtosis ~3 Permalink 2020-08-09 01:36:18

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-09 01:09:03

@nntaleb Grandfather MP voted for Bachir. Permalink 2020-08-09 00:30:13

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-09 00:20:48

@nntaleb You know it’s a fraud: not by looking at the merchant, but just by looking at the customers. Permalink 2020-08-09 00:18:15

@nntaleb Localism Permalink 2020-08-08 23:22:43

@nntaleb Where did I say that ? Permalink 2020-08-08 22:22:49

@nntaleb Bullshitting != making mistakes Permalink 2020-08-08 21:56:00

@nntaleb I spent ⅓ of the time there. Go lecture someone else. Permalink 2020-08-08 21:43:22

@nntaleb I never block people who make mistakes, @kareem_carr. Permalink 2020-08-08 21:18:23

@nntaleb Not quite Permalink 2020-08-08 21:05:07

@nntaleb Give me a week for the new organization. Might be the Lebanese Red Cross. Thanks. Permalink 2020-08-08 20:30:52

@nntaleb Dist of #of runs, not max (yet) Permalink 2020-08-08 20:29:48

@nntaleb OK, Let me up the stakes, @octonion What is the distribution of the number of runs? (a run is an uninterrupted succession of H or T). This will allow us to get the exact expected maximum run. Ours was still a numerical hudge. (math to clear up my mind owing to #Lebanon ) Permalink 2020-08-08 19:41:50

@nntaleb Mediterraneans. Permalink 2020-08-08 19:27:36

@nntaleb Of course, send it back to where you bought it. Permalink 2020-08-08 19:26:56

@nntaleb WTF? Lebanese ≠ “Arab” Permalink 2020-08-08 19:13:17

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-08 18:49:37

@nntaleb Bravo! Permalink 2020-08-08 18:47:08

@nntaleb Thank you Twitter. The tweet👇generated >$30K (excluding my contribution). Will repeat in a few days with another organization (#diversification). Permalink 2020-08-08 18:08:24

@nntaleb Necessary and Sufficient. #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-08 18:01:33

@nntaleb Immediate elections. But better to be slow in cleaning shops [corruption] because of the French Revolution. The more you delay the worse the cleanup gets. Permalink 2020-08-08 17:35:37

@nntaleb Mabruk! Permalink 2020-08-08 17:26:41

@nntaleb Nothing in history that moved fast EVER worked. Transitions work. #Burke Permalink 2020-08-08 17:08:34

@nntaleb Cheers, [signed] XXX Permalink 2020-08-08 17:03:47

@nntaleb Idiots. Permalink 2020-08-08 16:43:34

@nntaleb This info by @halimshebaya is NOT false info. Many officials from corrupt regimes buy properties via LLC in the US. #MarwanPonzi Kheireddine is a beneficial owner of the LLC. People who bankrupt their banks can’t be smart. #MarwanPonzi was unable to hide his identity. Permalink 2020-08-08 16:26:22

@nntaleb x^2+1/x^2+2=5 (x+1/x)=sqrt(5) x=(\sqrt(5) \pm 1)½ Permalink 2020-08-08 14:10:47

@nntaleb There is a story about *some* “top” epidemiologists not understanding masks (nor epidemiology, nor convexity, nor life, nor much else). Wear a mask for the sake of others. Permalink 2020-08-08 13:02:05

@nntaleb Salemtak! Permalink 2020-08-08 11:55:49

@nntaleb This @mar1_k must first explain. Then eventually pay for this. Unlike with Madoff, all Lebanese Ponzi participants are still at large. “If you see fraud and don’t shout fraud you are a fraud.” Permalink 2020-08-08 11:33:43

@nntaleb Best to cancel and reorder on link above. Permalink 2020-08-08 11:18:22

@nntaleb No, Self-remade. Permalink 2020-08-08 10:57:15

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:26:17

@nntaleb Localism, I keep saying. You don’t replace a government that harms you with more government. Self-organization and bottom up government. Take things into your own hands. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:23:47

@nntaleb Excellent detection of the contradiction. I use revenge in my personal life, when it is a deterrent, but not in my collective-political one when things are settled. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:21:58

@nntaleb John Gray’s recommendation Permalink 2020-08-07 21:42:38

@nntaleb I block idiots. The only colonialism in Lebanon is 500 y of Ottoman, in which minorities learned to thrive (#Antifragile) (Fr spent 20 y as a LON mandate). “Past injustices fuel present injustices and focusing on those isn’t a weakness.” Some idiot looking for problem. Permalink 2020-08-07 19:33:55

@nntaleb Byzantine. Permalink 2020-08-07 19:27:15

@nntaleb Can someone dig Bo Winegard’s income? I bet you it is less than a blue collar person. cc:@Monsantobuster Permalink 2020-08-07 18:51:29

@nntaleb W inté wein 3éyesh? Permalink 2020-08-07 18:29:20

@nntaleb Into min 7aret l faw2a? Permalink 2020-08-07 18:09:53

@nntaleb 3indé 7ada ma3 Fresh $$$bi Bairut W kamén bb3at Bitcoin la 3alam. Permalink 2020-08-07 17:18:23

@nntaleb Too much sun Permalink 2020-08-07 17:12:36

@nntaleb Confirmed. Permalink 2020-08-07 17:11:01

@nntaleb Finally found source; added it to references. Permalink 2020-08-07 16:34:04

@nntaleb I have been giving direct to people hurt in #Lebanon, no intermediary. But for those w/o the network, I verified this group (I know some of the people involved very well; they are volunteers) and (#SKinInTheGame) will give also them $$to match some of your donations. Permalink 2020-08-07 16:24:42

@nntaleb I am not interested in people liking me. I am interested in people READING me. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:05:47

@nntaleb 2) Most of these colonial studies are built around retrospective acrimony as an industry by itself, by rent-seeking academics. Move on. Life is not zero sum. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:03:23

@nntaleb The more you get stuck in the past at past historical slights, the worse your progress. Move on; getting rich is the best revenge. In 1982 Assad (père) & warlord Frangié blew up our house in Amioun. I got rich & we built a bigger one. My way of saying F***k you. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:00:14

@nntaleb Prayers.🙏 Permalink 2020-08-07 13:51:16

@nntaleb Can’t you read a tweet? Reread above. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:40:42

@nntaleb Yes, non top-down Permalink 2020-08-07 13:36:58

@nntaleb Amazon recommending me to buy my own book. The book should be back in stock on AMZN next week. Meanwhile there is stock here: for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95.… Remember the PDF is Free Permalink 2020-08-07 13:35:21

@nntaleb Sub-imbecile, DNA of Lebanese (Muslims and Christians) is close to Imperial Romans. Sub-imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:29:31

@nntaleb Let’s be open to both interpretations. The Orthodox were sympathetic to the Ottomans, but we were not allowed to have bells in our churches. Catherine changed that. I think that the problems started as vicious circles of nationalism after the Greek independence wars. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:08:56

@nntaleb Idiots who recite post-colonial studies don’t get it that the Ottomans spent 500 years in Lebanon, the French military came as a League of Nations Mandate for ~22 years. French “influence”, if anything, decreased (Arabism + American University). Permalink 2020-08-07 12:16:56

@nntaleb Block conspiracy theorists. Permalink 2020-08-07 12:10:49

@nntaleb Salemtkon. Weyn kinto lamma saret? Permalink 2020-08-07 12:00:45

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:58:59

@nntaleb Theories by nuance-blind idiots. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:47:51

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:46:40

@nntaleb Localism Permalink 2020-08-07 11:40:26

@nntaleb Hi, we discontinued as the quality is of Book Depository is sub par. It is Print on Demand You can return it if you wish and order from the US the real one. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:38:30

@nntaleb I block idiots Permalink 2020-08-06 23:44:20

@nntaleb Apple cash is free! Permalink 2020-08-06 21:07:01

@nntaleb Can you help get a direct wire for larger $$? No fees, unlike Paypal, etc. Permalink 2020-08-06 20:32:25

@nntaleb Now, the real problemo. What is the distribution of the mean run? Permalink 2020-08-06 20:06:00

@nntaleb Bingo. The problem is the grievance industry. Permalink 2020-08-06 20:04:14

@nntaleb Do they go into fresh $$accounts? Permalink 2020-08-06 19:49:40

@nntaleb Blocked Permalink 2020-08-06 16:57:05

@nntaleb 2) Of the 3 million Gauls in what is now France, 1 million were killed, 1 million enslaved. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:56:55

@nntaleb STATUTES OF LIMITATION The French-Algerian war was 60 years ago. Unless you consider it settled, you are opening up to endless boomerangs of grief. For the Gauls were invaded & exterminated by Julius Cesar 2000 y ago. Should they ask Rome for reparation? Move on. Look ahead. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:50:09

@nntaleb No, just block. I did. Ostrakon. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:40:02

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff? Permalink 2020-08-06 16:36:34

@nntaleb I blocked him. Despicable man. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:01:24

@nntaleb CONSPIRACY THEORIES/FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS I explained in FBR how journos tend to always assign causes to random market moves. I stopped reading newspapers early on in my career. It is the exact same mechanism that makes us see conspiracies in place of accidents. Permalink 2020-08-06 14:51:38

@nntaleb OK, blocked. All conspiracy theories are blocked. Permalink 2020-08-06 14:41:39

@nntaleb Salemetkon Permalink 2020-08-06 14:25:34

@nntaleb Macron, we owe you. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:59:53

@nntaleb Fucking idiot show me the genetic evidence. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:51:19

@nntaleb Yves Smith is doing the job no journalist does anymore. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:35:29

@nntaleb My bedroom in Beirut (in the family place). Permalink 2020-08-06 13:29:16

@nntaleb Made in London from descriptions Permalink 2020-08-06 12:14:13

@nntaleb You seem to be on the wrong footing. You can’t seek peace by fighting a faction. They are the ones you need to deal with. Permalink 2020-08-06 12:09:10

@nntaleb I guess the debate about the “value” of tail risk hedging has ended. Permalink 2020-08-06 12:00:16

@nntaleb Good Permalink 2020-08-06 11:33:40

@nntaleb Good. But will take a while to thaw the ice. Permalink 2020-08-06 11:28:14

@nntaleb My question is: who died and how? Permalink 2020-08-06 00:19:05

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-05 23:52:54

@nntaleb My endorsement for his next book: “Gad Saad has more intellectual courage than many entire departments.” Permalink 2020-08-05 23:49:32

@nntaleb His Gadness has so much intellectual courage that I would never betray him. Permalink 2020-08-05 23:44:49

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has to do with food & sophistication Permalink 2020-08-05 23:02:11

@nntaleb Skin in the game. He is going to Lebanon tomorrow, after sending troops. No empty talk. Permalink 2020-08-05 22:45:34

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-05 22:34:35

@nntaleb This approach is critical and explains the parsimonious character of Extreme Value Theory: to figure out if a sequence is random, instead of counting heads and tails, start by looking at the maxima. See how much it diverges from 8. Permalink 2020-08-05 22:02:16

@nntaleb The formula would be to integrate ^250/mean assuming the distribution of the mean. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:13:40

@nntaleb No, a fudge. The 125 is a fudge. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:09:55

@nntaleb Waiting for more such studies. Morbidity seems to affect mild cases, as presumed in our debate with Ioannidis (Taleb Bar Yam, Cirillo, 2020, IJF). You need to account for morbidity, not just fatality, rates. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:01:59

@nntaleb Is there a BTC => Fresh dollars market? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-05 17:12:53

@nntaleb Fresh $$account Permalink 2020-08-05 16:02:42

@nntaleb 2/Some people on the thread are recommending NGOs. I tend to go direct, avoid professionals. Someone I know. And if you pick an organization, take one with volunteers, no professional staff. Permalink 2020-08-05 15:01:11

@nntaleb Nobody needs your prayers. Permalink 2020-08-05 14:54:24

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Stop the BS & the statements. Find pple in your circle who lost their home & offer $$to rebuild. Talk is cheap. Don’t call with words, call with $$. Now. PS- I block everyone engaging in conspiracy theories under such a tragedy. Permalink 2020-08-05 14:51:50

Manhattan, Ioannidis, NUCLEAR, Sunstein, FRAUD!!!!!, Thaler, Omar Sharif, Tetlock, Pinker, IQ, Playboy, BOOK PUBLISHING, Hagia Sophia | Twitter

Published on Jul 27, 2020
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
For transcript and links related to today’s episode:

The Masks Masquerade

Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility

Face Masks May be Necessary and Sufficient to Stop Covid-19
An entrepreneur’s perspective on Nassim Taleb’s conclusions about face masks

Podcast Notes: The Pandemic, Power of Masks, Levels of Risk and More | Nassim Nicholas Taleb on EconTalk

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)
Published on Feb 18, 2020
We explain the Kelly criterion and illustrate why “risk aversion” in Behavioral Finance is Micky Mouse(™) Science.

TLDR: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic A summary of the July 27, 2020 episode of EconTalk.

On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables (pdf)

@nntaleb Fireworks or ammunitions from the initial sparks. Stop the conspiracy theories, for Baal’s sake. No plane. Permalink 2020-08-04 16:38:01

@nntaleb Manhattan is dead & unflaneurable. Astoria Queens is more flaneurable: less pretentious & has much better Greek food, 30% blue collar customers instead of constipated book executives & philistines who read Harari. Even flaneuring can adapt well. Permalink 2020-08-04 14:33:56

@nntaleb Nikos Phililogos Permalink 2020-08-04 14:21:32

@nntaleb Scribe Permalink 2020-08-04 14:20:21

@nntaleb “Arabic”? WTF? Permalink 2020-08-04 14:19:29

@nntaleb Nobody noticed it is the Saint Petersburgh problem? Power law, if uncapped, with infinite mean. There is a Feller theorem about time to cross the origin following a Cauchy Permalink 2020-08-04 13:56:33

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 2020-08-04 13:29:12

@nntaleb You can easily copy one line, no? Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:53

@nntaleb Typo: m=250/2 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:37

@nntaleb And if you cheat (“verify”) by using Monte Carlo you get the same. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:25:29

@nntaleb My solution: 8.3 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:23:16

@nntaleb Not “Greek” olive oil. Lebanese olive oil from the Koura valley, so only ½ Greek. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:03:21

@nntaleb Not quite, my friend. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:27:22

@nntaleb Ok, Ok, Quiz What is the expected longest run generated by a random 250 coin tosses. A run is defined as n heads or n tails. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:24:14

@nntaleb Actually, no. People mistake length of runs for average of runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:25:44

@nntaleb Thanks Zhuo. Visibly your hand one does not have long runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:03:08

@nntaleb Using a Markov chain to estimate the expected number of runs. The number of runs of 7 must bet ~2 Permalink 2020-08-03 18:59:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you go give advice to someone else? Permalink 2020-08-03 14:17:33

@nntaleb III A wise decision is one that is sound both prospectively and retrospectively, in both foresight and hindsight. Our best definition of #Precaution Permalink 2020-08-03 13:52:37

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-03 13:32:00

@nntaleb Our debate with Ioannidis,II Plus why “forecasting” and “evidence based” are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb HOW TO HANDLE A PANDEMIC Our debate with John Ioannidis. Plus why naive single point “forecasting” and “evidence based” methods are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb You should detect by eyeballing. Permalink 2020-08-03 10:20:31

@nntaleb פה بالعبراني Permalink 2020-08-03 02:30:13

@nntaleb How many hours for $300? Permalink 2020-08-02 23:59:43

@nntaleb This is not quite a PL. Zifplots are insufficient. You need EVT to prove it. Would love to replicate. Permalink 2020-08-02 20:58:51

@nntaleb BM did not like this Permalink 2020-08-02 20:53:38

@nntaleb The sandpile story is controversial & supposedly Bak did not have a proof… Permalink 2020-08-02 19:57:42

@nntaleb Blocked the imbecile. He is just a photographer. Permalink 2020-08-02 19:13:37

@nntaleb I have an inside story of Mandelbrot on Per Bak Permalink 2020-08-02 18:44:27

@nntaleb SYSTEMIC RISK: non-diversifiable. You can in principle break-up into n reactors to get the needed risk diversification/prevent Chernobyl from being too large. Permalink 2020-08-02 18:13:10

@nntaleb Systemic = 1 block. Nuclear is in a diff category (non subexponential) Permalink 2020-08-02 16:57:52

@nntaleb In Principia Politica, there is a rule: No institution without an expiration date. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:45:37

@nntaleb Voshart you imbecile this is how you get coloring, by comparison. An confirmed by genetics: Lybians looked no different from other Mediterraneans. You are an imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:42:59

@nntaleb He seems clueless about genetics. He is just a photographer using cultural notions. Many fail to get that Southern Mediterraneans are Western Eurasians (the Europe/Africa distinction is not accurate). Permalink 2020-08-02 15:39:28

@nntaleb Voshart, are you a geneticist? Permalink 2020-08-02 15:38:04

@nntaleb Went away recently Permalink 2020-08-02 13:36:59

@nntaleb Aspetta mi, vengo subito prima che la lasagna si raffreddi Permalink 2020-08-02 13:32:06

@nntaleb I will make it very simple for you: I am picking what method I like not the one you like and you can go fuck off. Simple enough? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:28:29

@nntaleb Dove? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:20:27

@nntaleb I am not saying NUCLEAR is not dangerous. It is in a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:35

@nntaleb I am not saying it is not dangerous. Just a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:05

@nntaleb NUCLEAR I NEVER said that nuclear energy was safe. I said that it does not fall under the Precautionary Principle as there is ~no systemic risk. Nuclear accidents are additive not multiplicative (unlike GMOs & viruses). The risk (for small reactors) remains local not systemic. Permalink 2020-08-02 11:27:10

@nntaleb Then why education? Now shd I get pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:40:26

@nntaleb Hi there Where did you get it from? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:28:24

@nntaleb Learning to cook from fresh dough. Mystery: Why did Sicily discontinue growing sumac? Permalink 2020-08-01 21:09:43

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff and find yourself a hobby with “utility” before you lecture us? Permalink 2020-08-01 20:28:39

@nntaleb My shoulder bans me from deadlifting… Permalink 2020-08-01 19:16:26

@nntaleb Thanks! What’s best of the 4 options? Pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:15:56

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-01 19:12:46

@nntaleb Can you do these rooms in business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:04:54

@nntaleb Charlie can students spontaneously create rooms? Permalink 2020-08-01 14:15:45

@nntaleb Mistake. This is NOT the inquisition. There were trials and sentences were delivered by a (lay) court. This is more like the period of terror during the French Revolution. Soon education will be ONLY delivered by special apolitical institutions like coding camps. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:51:02

@nntaleb We don’t care about costs. We need to be able to create breakout rooms. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:29:14

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-08-01 11:22:23

@nntaleb 80-100 Permalink 2020-08-01 11:20:05

@nntaleb I blame the NYT first. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:19:00

@nntaleb Please do not involve geopolitics, China-US or some conspiracy in a software discussion. The question is precise Zoom for Business of for Education. Do not compare to other methods. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:15:39

@nntaleb This is the Inquisition Permalink 2020-08-01 11:10:51

@nntaleb But a university affiliation is becoming a liability. All downside, no upside. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:08:22

@nntaleb Friends, for #RWRI 14, do you prefer Zoom for Business or Zoom for Education? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-01 10:45:33

@nntaleb No comment for now. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:28:39

@nntaleb That’s another matter. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:24:45

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-01 02:18:08

@nntaleb Without verification… Anyone getting anywhere close to a US university is a moron. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:14:31

@nntaleb Ovadiah Permalink 2020-07-31 18:21:00

@nntaleb Hi Scott You are missing the CENTRAL point: 1) is fragile what does not like volatility everything concave is fragile And reverse: antifragile = convex between a and b. Permalink 2020-07-31 15:42:14

@nntaleb 5) METASTATIC BUREAUCRACIES If you want an illustration, here is one. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:55:15

@nntaleb 4) CREDENTIALIZATION And note how Tedros mentions Harvard to credentialize Sunstein, which wipes out his defects and ignorance of probability. Repeat after me: Delenda WHO est. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:11:30

@nntaleb Nassim, he is a professor in a business school. Intellectual fraud is for them business as usual. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:01:04

@nntaleb 3) The Collection of bureaucrats *who meet* for a living and failed to get the risks of the pandemic early on when WE warned, costs us TRILLIONS. Now what do they do? They ADD more bureaucrats like that fraud Sunstein. Institutions learn via bankruptcy. WHO must be DEFUNDED. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:49:22

@nntaleb 2) Do not forget that @CassSunstein made it irrational to worry about the risks of the pandemic in February! WHO must be closed. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:17:56

@nntaleb FRAUD!!!!! If there is a reason to shut down the WHO, here it is. Cass Sunstein is the poster child of pseudo-empiricism. He failed to get pandemics early on and missed on the difference between additive & multiplicative risks. FRAUD! Permalink 2020-07-31 13:15:18

@nntaleb No to the Bisri Dam project. It is economically a scam, and environmentally a DISASTER. Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-07-31 12:52:38

@nntaleb You can return it to them and order here Permalink 2020-07-31 12:01:14

@nntaleb Can you return it and reorder from this? Permalink 2020-07-31 12:00:50

@nntaleb Where did you get yours? Permalink 2020-07-31 11:59:22

@nntaleb Here Permalink 2020-07-31 11:50:54

@nntaleb Yes, I was wondering. My SP02 is 98 when active, 94 when inactive and I thought there was a problem but realized there was none as the problem is the other way around. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:32:05

@nntaleb Hi, Who did you buy it from? We stopped the Book Depository. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:29:02

@nntaleb Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-07-31 11:23:40

@nntaleb Levantine ethics… Permalink 2020-07-30 23:01:08

@nntaleb Fucking moron what does my argument have anything to do with how conservatives behave? Permalink 2020-07-30 21:47:26

@nntaleb On citation rings Permalink 2020-07-30 21:31:44

@nntaleb Yes, I am a staunch advocate of masks (even when it was unpopular). But anyone gloating on the web about the death of Herman Cain is: + shabby + unprincipled + sordid + despicable De mortuis nihil nisi bonum Permalink 2020-07-30 19:53:21

@nntaleb Time to make this a nontechnical chapter in the new book, Vol2 of the Technical Incerto. How you will go bust on a favorable bet. Or why among other things @R_Thaler is a fraud. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp) Permalink 2020-07-30 19:39:10

@nntaleb Interesting warning signs of Alzheimer: He stopped playing bridge ~15 years before he was diagnosed with Alzheimer. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:56:58

@nntaleb The point is that I show in my book evidence that economics is just a citation ring. “Prestige” is just a scam. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:37:23

@nntaleb The idea is: Get data. Derive kernel distribution at bandwidth 1 Get MI[1] Derive kernel dist at finer bandwidth Get M[2] You see convergence as gains are smaller and smaller except for \infty Permalink 2020-07-30 17:15:11

@nntaleb No, there is small effect, so long as you do not use points but distributions. You need perfect relationship = infinity. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:07:05

@nntaleb The difference between continuous (differential) entropy and discrete does not extend to MI. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:49:54

@nntaleb This is an imbecilic interpretation. Sorry I block for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:45:38

@nntaleb Something everybody knows Permalink 2020-07-30 16:10:49

@nntaleb The idea is “is it more useful than temperature”? Permalink 2020-07-30 15:53:22

@nntaleb You’ll never grasp voting patterns & political positions of millennials unless you recognize that a new graduate in about anything theoretical (Bachelor, Master even PhD) earns less than a slightly trained plumber, truck driver, or a carpenter. Reflect & see why Univ. going bust. Permalink 2020-07-30 14:00:49

@nntaleb Many other approaches. Thanks, friends. Permalink 2020-07-30 13:44:54

@nntaleb True Permalink 2020-07-30 12:38:16

@nntaleb He was Levantine. Greek Orthodox. Permalink 2020-07-30 12:18:27

@nntaleb One approach Permalink 2020-07-30 12:09:57

@nntaleb This plus coffee helps you to wake up. [Reminder: non-math related cute comment = block] Permalink 2020-07-30 11:53:13

@nntaleb Genetics show the mummies were Levantine Permalink 2020-07-30 11:04:26

@nntaleb Can detect disease not health Permalink 2020-07-30 10:32:51

@nntaleb FACT DU JOUR Omar Sharif (born Michel Dimitri Shalhoub), an actor with brains: + Elite bridge player + Fluent >5 languages + OK in Greek (like many Alexandrians) + Degree in mathematics + Did not socialize w/actors (except. romance w/actresses) Permalink 2020-07-30 10:31:30

@nntaleb So far I haven’t called anyone a fraud who didn’t turn out to be a fraud. Permalink 2020-07-30 10:10:53

@nntaleb Many people, including some doctors, don’t seem to get what a filter means. Permalink 2020-07-30 02:13:35

@nntaleb Did anyone think SPO2 as instant (5 seconds) filter for Covid-19? Isn’t there more signal than with temperature? Permalink 2020-07-30 00:46:39

@nntaleb The debate with John Ioannidis On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables, with @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Latest version Permalink 2020-07-29 22:08:33

@nntaleb I revise the book every time you read it. Permalink 2020-07-29 21:42:57

@nntaleb ? no idea. Permalink 2020-07-29 20:22:39

@nntaleb Was looking for your address to mail you the book. Permalink 2020-07-29 18:52:20

@nntaleb Pour commence, Argth la Arg tangente hyperbolic, la reciproque de la tanh n’est pas ½ Log… Permalink 2020-07-29 15:22:01

@nntaleb Cet apres-midi. Permalink 2020-07-29 15:12:09

@nntaleb ECONTALK with @EconTalker via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-29 15:08:19

@nntaleb Imbecilic remark. What does democracy have to do with your own house? Democracy is about voter participation not letting people troll your private feed. Permalink 2020-07-29 14:22:04

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-29 12:59:52

@nntaleb You need to de-discretize your calcs. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:49:24

@nntaleb More “complicated” in statistical domains. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:29:01

@nntaleb And >2 m people visiting and commuting daily Permalink 2020-07-29 12:06:21

@nntaleb For every person you block, you get 10 new followers. Why? Because the quality of your thread improves markedly; comments are worth reading. Protect your thread. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:43:45

@nntaleb In cities, indeed. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:34:38

@nntaleb Διόρθωση: Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο της *ελληνικής γλώσσας* στο Zoom (Current level: Koiné) Σας ευχαριστώ όλους Permalink 2020-07-29 00:13:37

@nntaleb DM please. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-29 00:04:54

@nntaleb Could be 2 separate problems. The old must not pass on charges… Permalink 2020-07-28 22:28:42

@nntaleb Great Summary Permalink 2020-07-28 22:04:09

@nntaleb For a citation, I had to get a copy of @PTetlock’s (🐁”Phil the rat”) *Superforecasting* & it is worse than I thought, from his work. [Co-author is a shill/lobbyist paid by large corporations to play down their “risk”] It has major, major mistakes & flaws. What to do? Permalink 2020-07-28 21:21:25

@nntaleb I peer review ALL my work one way or another. Permalink 2020-07-28 21:11:34

@nntaleb Additive & multiplicative Risks should never be compared to one another. Multiplicative => fat tails. We have limited the precautionary principle ONLY to multiplicative risks: + Pandemics (only 72 in history) + Genetic modifications spread in nature Permalink 2020-07-28 21:09:00

@nntaleb The way it works: readers read what a reliable friend recommends, etc. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:32:49

@nntaleb Hi there Can you return it back to them? Further instructions to follow. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:16:34

@nntaleb My experience since “Skin in The Game” is to leave it to social media: genuine readers commenting for potential genuine readers. No more critics who filter & decide what *lesser* readers should like or avoid. My books are not sent to the media & “intellectuals”. F*** them. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:58:41

@nntaleb Mush me2lé! Mshwé! W iza me2lé bzeit zeitun msh mazolla (bi fakkru atyab bil mazolla) Permalink 2020-07-28 19:45:06

@nntaleb I block for sophistry. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:25:42

@nntaleb Shipping next week. But if in a rush, cancel and get this immediately. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:02:52

@nntaleb Plugged out (injury) so just low weights. Permalink 2020-07-28 18:41:18

@nntaleb On it Permalink 2020-07-28 18:36:36

@nntaleb Once in a while, the reverse helps. Permalink 2020-07-28 17:47:14

@nntaleb How strong are both of you now? Permalink 2020-07-28 16:45:36

@nntaleb I tried 5 sets of 10, doing math btw sets. Permalink 2020-07-28 16:21:56

@nntaleb Takes a week to know the benefits Permalink 2020-07-28 15:34:21

@nntaleb Separate day Permalink 2020-07-28 15:33:12

@nntaleb Also 5 sets of 10 presses Permalink 2020-07-28 15:28:43

@nntaleb Did you try the 5 sets of 10 deadlifts? Permalink 2020-07-28 15:24:31

@nntaleb Necessary Permalink 2020-07-28 14:21:16

@nntaleb My problem with him. Permalink 2020-07-28 12:18:41

@nntaleb This was promoted in my feed. These ideas that are supposed to help your life destroy it. If a book can be summarized it’s not a book; if you get something in 15 minutes it is not worth getting. Permalink 2020-07-28 11:54:26

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Where? Permalink 2020-07-28 11:44:27

@nntaleb of ours Permalink 2020-07-28 03:02:05

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Not at all. The argument is about convexity. Permalink 2020-07-28 02:00:55

@nntaleb Haha Campaign started in March. Permalink 2020-07-28 01:46:08

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, being “right” means agreeing with you? Permalink 2020-07-27 23:49:26

@nntaleb You are clueless. Permalink 2020-07-27 23:41:43

@nntaleb Attitude? What “attitude”? Permalink 2020-07-27 20:39:36

@nntaleb Will restock up next week or but meanwhile try @zachobront’s link. Permalink 2020-07-27 20:26:38

@nntaleb OK, émtin? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:59:54

@nntaleb Leish ma bte3zemné ana? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:54:55

@nntaleb A reminder from PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-27 19:09:08

@nntaleb Your statement is MORONIC. As you get more information & granularity you target your measures tfor costs and efficacy Permalink 2020-07-27 18:37:52

@nntaleb I wonder why the cancel culture does not go after the chain of retractions instead of innocent idiots like @sapinker Permalink 2020-07-27 18:08:09

@nntaleb “National IQ” is practically an academic fraud. But the fact it went for so long is quite shocking. Permalink 2020-07-27 18:01:20

@nntaleb @ndehouche Permalink 2020-07-27 17:53:16

@nntaleb Squares Permalink 2020-07-27 17:21:25

@nntaleb Reread our paper. Explained there. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:58:28

@nntaleb We have answered that with our degree of fattailedness of certain class of events >>> all others, hence it is not frivilous and generalized worry. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:52:25

@nntaleb I block idiot. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:41:29

@nntaleb NOTHING to do with Regime switching. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:20:21

@nntaleb Was it Amazon or Scribe? Permalink 2020-07-27 14:19:20

@nntaleb I blocked him. I block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-27 13:09:58

@nntaleb It is not the same problem and this is not a highshool problem. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:43:40

@nntaleb Assuming it is an error… Thanks! will investigate. I am always worried when no errors are revealed. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:21:01

@nntaleb The distribution is Uniform below 1. Very very strange. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:16:28

@nntaleb The distribution is uniform below 1 ! Permalink 2020-07-27 12:15:37

@nntaleb Great counterintuitive result in probability. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:10:50

@nntaleb The article is for scientists not for politically driven imbeciles like you. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:13:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-27 02:06:15

@nntaleb Cancel and use our link. Ships immediately. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:04:47

@nntaleb And it feels different: you pull from the nape of the neck Permalink 2020-07-27 02:01:04

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-27 01:59:20

@nntaleb É. Koyné ba3ref shwayy. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:19:36

@nntaleb Here it is more, as it is 90% of the 10 max Permalink 2020-07-27 01:18:04

@nntaleb Grazie. Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:11:40

@nntaleb Also, for variery, tried 10 reps deadlift, 5 times today, and the same with presses yesterday. Feels great, like a sprint. Watched elevated hearbeat and saw it crash. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:08:19

@nntaleb That’s the work equivalent of intermittent fasting. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:05:18

@nntaleb No comparison. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:03:45

@nntaleb Much simpler to cut calories. I reach ketosis eating pasta when I do OMAD. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:02:34

@nntaleb Haven’t practiced in 40 years! Permalink 2020-07-26 21:53:21

@nntaleb Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:51:44

@nntaleb Babbler, not speaker. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:49:50

@nntaleb Αγαπητοί φίλοι και φίλες, Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο στο Zoom Permalink 2020-07-26 21:45:10

@nntaleb Link? Permalink 2020-07-26 21:19:54

@nntaleb He never understood convexity. But cities are Lindy by virtue of location. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:17:40

@nntaleb Traders Permalink 2020-07-26 21:15:09

@nntaleb Cities when not monstrously large. Size is bad. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:49:29

@nntaleb In French, same thing. “Valeurs propres”. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:44:20

@nntaleb CITIES ARE FRAGILE Flaneured around NYC for a day. I spent 2/3 of my life in the area. Saaaaaaaad. Idiots claiming cities “more efficient” don’t realize the concavity/fragility to shocks. See #Antifragile: Rome went from 2.2M to few 100K & took >1500 years to come back. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:06:55

@nntaleb The conductor of the USJ (Jesuit Univ.) chorus in Beirut is a Lebanese woman (I assume Muslim from her name). Permalink 2020-07-26 19:30:44

@nntaleb The rarest (and most valuable) thing on this planet: a clear mind. Permalink 2020-07-26 16:59:15

@nntaleb After a lull, research is undergoing a back-migration to the land of grape leaves, thyme, and olive oil: the Republics of the Eastern Mediterranean. Thanks @polemitis for these ambitious projects; more to come. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:28:03

@nntaleb False negatives are a function of contageousness. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:18:39

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-26 14:03:50

@nntaleb Another misunderstood convexity: frequent testing beats precision. A solution is STARING at us. “Evidence based” idiots can’t easily get it because, as with MASKS, they can’t understand cheap alternatives. Permalink 2020-07-26 12:01:04

@nntaleb Cristo in Italiano e Francese (Montecristo, Monte Cristo) Permalink 2020-07-26 10:37:25

@nntaleb Fi PDF? Permalink 2020-07-25 20:31:05

@nntaleb My friend, not the squid ink sauce. Colored pasta. Permalink 2020-07-25 19:03:46

@nntaleb COVID: A central ethical point: intergenerational liability. Like many central points, goes to the footnote. Permalink 2020-07-25 15:38:11

@nntaleb I avoided mentioning Shiism because it is not clear to me. But for Alawis, it is. Permalink 2020-07-25 14:54:30

@nntaleb Imbecile White != Nordic Permalink 2020-07-25 14:41:41

@nntaleb A gracious and very scientific debate with Ioannidis et al., @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo We add: 1- How individual risks do not map to collective risks. 2- The False Dichotomy economy/disease mitigation. For comments (submitting today) Permalink 2020-07-25 12:14:08

@nntaleb 2) Some religions allow “Taqiyya”, i.e. concealing one’s creed or modifying it to the outside: Gnostic religions, Alevis, Alawis, Druze. Never Sunni Islam or Greek Orthodoxy. Religious history becomes muddled. Early East-Med Christians would rather die than deny their religion. Permalink 2020-07-25 11:44:32

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-07-25 11:38:36

@nntaleb No. DNA has not changed. Permalink 2020-07-25 10:59:20

@nntaleb Was invited to debate him. Permalink 2020-07-25 01:07:30

@nntaleb Taqiyya! Permalink 2020-07-24 22:53:31

@nntaleb The Marranos were nonChristians who upon the inquisition faked Christianity to aboid persecution. Academic Marranos fake it to avoid being cancelled. Some SJW Marranos will secretly vote Trump. Permalink 2020-07-24 22:47:10

@nntaleb Wrong, it is linear Permalink 2020-07-24 21:47:28

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 20:10:08

@nntaleb Yes, it looks much more elegant in CDF Permalink 2020-07-24 19:37:00

@nntaleb We are debating Ioannidis, thanks to @pierrepinson and @spyrosmakrid Our final answer to him was just completed, to post soon. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:34:53

@nntaleb Not the same thing. I was looking for the density, not the CDF. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:29:14

@nntaleb They should cut the “arabic”, to TUnision, Algerian, etc. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:26:28

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-07-24 17:19:59

@nntaleb Yes, sums of Beta distributed B[1/n,1], with a trick. for n=2, pi/4, verifying the general formula. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:16:53

@nntaleb @PZalloua and I will join the U. (soon). We will force them to change the titles: The Prince in Italian, The Republic in Greek, all in the ORIGINAL language. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:08:36

@nntaleb Right I misread X instead of X^n. It is one transformation before. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:03:18

@nntaleb CORRECTION: S^n-1 in numerator Permalink 2020-07-24 13:43:15

@nntaleb Application Permalink 2020-07-24 13:42:35

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 13:39:33

@nntaleb Lyom! Min jéyé? Permalink 2020-07-24 13:13:58

@nntaleb Yes, imbeciles. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:54:20

@nntaleb Voila. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:53:14

@nntaleb INEQUALITY DU JOUR This one is easy enough for morning coffee. Helps start the weekend. [Non-math commentators, please do not pollute the thread] Permalink 2020-07-24 12:15:18

@nntaleb His wife is native Syrian speaking from Turkey. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:28:59

@nntaleb Doesn’t look Lebanese at all. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:15:48

@nntaleb It was never inside the article Permalink 2020-07-23 22:35:48

@nntaleb OK Permalink 2020-07-23 22:28:40

@nntaleb I can put you there. Give me a picture. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:27:26

@nntaleb A Dutcgg photographer clueless about population genetics. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:20:21

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-23 22:17:31

@nntaleb He was Med that’s not Middle Eastern Permalink 2020-07-23 22:16:10

@nntaleb Insufferable… with some… Permalink 2020-07-23 21:47:29

@nntaleb Completamente Permalink 2020-07-23 16:04:50

@nntaleb Which author? Permalink 2020-07-23 11:56:46

@nntaleb And remember the PDF is Free… Permalink 2020-07-23 01:38:29

@nntaleb Unwavering in friendship, unwavery in enmity. Permalink 2020-07-23 01:36:00

@nntaleb Struck a deal Permalink 2020-07-22 16:12:18

@nntaleb That people who asked your type of question should NOT read the book. Permalink 2020-07-22 16:01:13

@nntaleb I was irked at the framing by the NYT Permalink 2020-07-22 15:54:08

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping [Next 2 weeks]. And remember the PDF is Free Permalink 2020-07-22 15:53:09

@nntaleb Yes, the outcome & her end “position” is not the question. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:48:15

@nntaleb Actually worse: he was bad to OLD slaves. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:23:05

@nntaleb “Synchronous belief” Permalink 2020-07-22 14:20:40

@nntaleb I like “Mediterranean Studies” or Ancient World Studies since the pillars were Babylon + Egypt Permalink 2020-07-22 14:03:33

@nntaleb Excellent. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:56:20

@nntaleb There is another one, but yours is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:35:47

@nntaleb I saw a commentary on Deuteronomy. There is another one by Rashi but still deciphering. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:24:31

@nntaleb No, imbecile. She was bigottering IN THE article, even if she did not cancel him. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:18:29

@nntaleb 4) Midrash Sefre. Rabbi Yossi HaGalili: אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:14:51

@nntaleb אמר רבי יוסי הגלילי, וכי תעלה על דעתך, שאדם הולך אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:08:44

@nntaleb There is something YOU are not getting, aside from your defective anachronistic reasoning: the NYT DOES NOT publish stuff outside very very narrow parameters (I have 5 Op-Eds there). Permalink 2020-07-22 12:41:17

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:37:20

@nntaleb Thanks but when did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:11:21

@nntaleb They filter Op-Eds, do refuse mine systematically. I published 5 Op-Eds there in the past when the opinion was lined up to theirs. My point isn’t the opinion but the very idea of having to debate canceling a past figure. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:53:53

@nntaleb 3) The Wahabis destroyed ancient ruins in Saudi Arabia (including Islamic ones) to “prevent” idolatry. Soon we will be bulldozing ruins built by slaves (Great Pyramid/Coliseum), then structures built by labor w/o medical benefits, then those by nonvegetarian architects. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:38:10

@nntaleb (Yes I know the NYT ends up “opposed” to the idea of “cancelling Aristotle”, but the mere fact that they suggest the possibility …) Permalink 2020-07-22 11:22:31

@nntaleb 2/ By retrospective bigotteering, they will end up canceling ALL their ancestors, 99.9% of the contents of libraries and any institution older than 5 years will eventually end up canceling itself. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:17:01

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:09:01

@nntaleb Any reference? Permalink 2020-07-22 11:06:37

@nntaleb The NYT suggests cancelling Aristotle. This is retrospective bigotteering; it implies moral values DO NOT evolve. People need to be judged with respect to the morals OF THEIR OWN TIME. (But we can be harsh w/Napoleon who reinstated slavery.) Permalink 2020-07-22 10:53:05

@nntaleb Bingo, Nassim. Saudi/Gulf people despise Levantines and Maghrebis, consider them “impure”. Permalink 2020-07-22 10:36:24

@nntaleb OK same ting Permalink 2020-07-22 00:58:07

@nntaleb Squid ink. A lot of squid ink. Permalink 2020-07-22 00:22:47

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-21 23:58:43

@nntaleb Disagree. CI says roughly you cannot build a function to project over n steps without n-1, and n-1 without n-2. Non analytic, no derivatives, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 23:32:20

@nntaleb TeXpad Permalink 2020-07-21 23:06:26

@nntaleb Alla yer7ama. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:33:18

@nntaleb Tell them Nice try. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:06:58

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi might manage to escape justice for a while, but… where is he going to go? Nice to see one’s villains in a cage, from which they can’t get out. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:30:05

@nntaleb Something tells me that the risk is dose-related, so fewer deaths in the summer, mistakenly attributed to the unavoidable mutation. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:01:20

@nntaleb No cream. Just foam from the beans. Permalink 2020-07-21 19:19:40

@nntaleb The olive smell is intentional. This is the first probability book ever sold in Med grocery stores and luxury olive oil stores. Permalink 2020-07-21 18:46:55

@nntaleb You have the knack of posting videos of me with 20 kg more. Permalink 2020-07-21 17:21:07

@nntaleb Don’t worry if the Lebanese judiciary is frozen. The FT is on the job. This is today. Not a good day to be #RiadPonzi via @financialtimes Permalink 2020-07-21 16:54:51

@nntaleb It is all starting now for Lebanese Central Bank Governor #RiadPonzi; we had to wait 10 m after I exposed him at USJ. He tried (& failed) to smear me (but hurt some of my friends) Being #vindictive, I manifest my elation watching the predicted fall of a villain & personal enemy. Permalink 2020-07-21 16:44:19

@nntaleb I don’t think so. Here is the PDF Permalink 2020-07-21 16:04:54

@nntaleb NY Permalink 2020-07-21 16:01:53

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-21 14:58:17

@nntaleb We have a note on country IQ to write. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:53:37

@nntaleb THINGS I LEARNED IN 2020 @rorysutherland told me that working outside, in a garden or in a park doesn’t feel like work. So long as it is outside. Works! Trying it for stuff that is *work* & requires colossal effort: s.a. reading emails from NJ, comments from referees, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:37:23

@nntaleb We knew “nudge” (Thaler and Sunstein) relies on a buch of severe errors in probability. It is actually worse: vastly non-empirical claims. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:04:21

@nntaleb Must be Lebanese, Tiyan is Semitic (Tyan = bird in Lebanese, Tuyyoyo = Arab in Syriac) and not found in French. Plus look at the picture Permalink 2020-07-21 12:56:07

@nntaleb I block imbeciles. Sorry. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:27:28

@nntaleb The same people who worry about “costs” of mitigating the pandemic spend trillions on weaponry “for insurance”. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:15:20

@nntaleb Not segregated in the modern sense. Town vs country, educated vs uneducated. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:09:09

@nntaleb Same tools same coffee grind. Never forget cold water after every sip, the East-Med way. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:05:47

@nntaleb @ndehouche can give you lists, St Augustine being the most known Permalink 2020-07-21 11:31:40

@nntaleb How much $$do they charge? Permalink 2020-07-21 11:03:20

@nntaleb How much is Amz UK? Could be OK Permalink 2020-07-21 10:57:49

@nntaleb Indeed the only podcasts I do is with @EconTalker as, over time, I learned refined economic reasoning from him & developed arguments over a 13 y conversation. Permalink 2020-07-21 10:53:56

@nntaleb Vivi in italia? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:07:54

@nntaleb In 2 or 3 days there will be a link to ship to Europe at minimal additional cost. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:05:48

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:04:54

@nntaleb Grazie. Impari qualcosa ogni giorno. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:02:53

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:57:48

@nntaleb Which is what I asked @Normonic, no? Or is it different when it is not a price, where you use the plural? In Fr it is “combien” for both Permalink 2020-07-21 00:56:37

@nntaleb In a store how you say “how much”? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:50:54

@nntaleb When you ask for a price, you say “quanto” or “quanti”? Curious Permalink 2020-07-21 00:32:52

@nntaleb You are debating someone I’ve blocked for serious defects in thinking. So keep that in mind when you get spurious arguments about what is or what is not “native”. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:29:33

@nntaleb You mean Central Med. Sicily = Central Med Permalink 2020-07-21 00:22:58

@nntaleb Quanto? 35? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:18:46

@nntaleb That’s the narrative used against Palestinians and used by the French to keep Algeria. Permalink 2020-07-20 22:51:32

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-20 21:38:58

@nntaleb We had 6x capacity, 2 y waiting list. Permalink 2020-07-20 21:22:27

@nntaleb 3indak nbid w Nero di Sepia. Shu baddo l wa7ad gheir shi? Permalink 2020-07-20 20:47:30

@nntaleb 3inna RWRI Permalink 2020-07-20 20:44:06

@nntaleb Mush kll l wa2t blebnén: 3 shor bil sené Permalink 2020-07-20 20:36:05

@nntaleb Fuck, no. The Levant only 2. Different culture/origins/history. Permalink 2020-07-20 20:03:46

@nntaleb WTF do you mean “finally”? Permalink 2020-07-20 19:49:57

@nntaleb If the thing is linear y1=a x, y2=b x, it is the integral of the absolute difference Abs[(b-a) x]. If same sign, =(b-a)(x2^2-x1^2)/2, otherwise pick {x1,x2,x3} and use absolute. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:46:59

@nntaleb False dichotomy: it is an error to ignore that the pandemic itself has economic costs and make a trade-off between health and economics. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:26:50

@nntaleb OK OK libya Permalink 2020-07-20 18:31:03

@nntaleb Lybia and Tunisia had Arabic J1e coming in noncoastal areas because nomads could handle the conditions, similar to Arabis. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:29:21

@nntaleb Most in the North did until the 1600s speak a version of it. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:27:41

@nntaleb Baddna zoom @Decafquest Permalink 2020-07-20 18:26:11

@nntaleb Straw man? leb dialect is treated as a “lahja” and descendant of Dus7a Permalink 2020-07-20 18:20:23

@nntaleb Easier to implement. Lebanese and Western Syrian. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:19:20

@nntaleb Konfirmed. Only Tunisia has Peninsular gene flow. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:17:39

@nntaleb heik 3am bi sir Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:33

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:02

@nntaleb Ktir burokratiyyé honik. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:41:58

@nntaleb Hi Not recommended. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:40:21

@nntaleb Some historical facts: Algerians (particularly in coastal cities) spoke Latin for CENTURIES before the French learned it & bastardized it into what is now their language. Make the #SouthMed great again! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:39:04

@nntaleb Evidence: 1 min ago Permalink 2020-07-20 16:46:49

@nntaleb Crap. Permalink 2020-07-20 16:45:29

@nntaleb There is no teleological “forward”. There is one condition: very small steps locally (with occasional large payoffs). Permalink 2020-07-20 16:05:39

@nntaleb Interestingly Rimbaud worked for a Lebanese dealer César Tiyyan Permalink 2020-07-20 14:48:03

@nntaleb The difference betw Classical Arabic and Levantine is stark here. Proves one can reach yuuuuuuuuuge linguistic prowess in Lebanese. This poetry that is never taught in school, repressed by the Arabists & the “left” that aims to destroys nonelite/local languages. @Firsou 1/n Permalink 2020-07-20 14:47:22

@nntaleb Not the point: reverse engineering produces compounding errors under dimensionality. Permalink 2020-07-20 14:20:56

@nntaleb Ana tlmizak! Permalink 2020-07-20 13:58:02

@nntaleb Below 70 Permalink 2020-07-20 13:32:16

@nntaleb My explanation why those discussing genetics of intelligence don’t understand basic multivariate statistics. Also applies to the BS claims by @sapinker. Permalink 2020-07-20 13:04:29

@nntaleb Leish hal akl khara? Mshklét l balad 2yura mtlak. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:59:40

@nntaleb Ana mush mtl Twayné W 2asir, 3ndé 3ilé2at ma3 l kll w ma3 l mashri2iyyé… bass msh ma3 l Salafiyyé wl 3urubiyyé Permalink 2020-07-20 12:51:33

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:13:54

@nntaleb Ma be2ra illa bil mashr2é (Levantine) Permalink 2020-07-20 11:45:06

@nntaleb Here is what he got confused with Permalink 2020-07-20 11:43:33

@nntaleb There is an “i” too many Permalink 2020-07-20 11:39:00

@nntaleb Ana baddé lézém lé2é jém3a 3a zaw2é bté3zmné. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:36:38

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:33:16

@nntaleb Fi byetrko, fi byeb2o, fi byejo! Ba3d ma @PZalloua 2arrar yb2a bi baladna bhal fatra lse3bé, mfakkar ana erja3, la intemé la jém3a bi Lebnén la 2awwé l ma3nawiyyét (w 3allém l tlémiz Data Science). Permalink 2020-07-20 11:29:26

@nntaleb Salibi was a fraud, I block people who promote frauds. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:02:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-20 11:00:54

@nntaleb In old Arabic, Ajami عجمي meant Persian or foreigner, as there was an expression: “al 3rbu wal 3ajamu”. Seemingly same in Osmali. Permalink 2020-07-20 00:22:20

@nntaleb It seems to me from what little Osmali I can make out, that Acemoglu is “son of the Persian”, Acemi+Oglu Permalink 2020-07-20 00:02:23

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-19 23:09:39

@nntaleb Yes in text explain that the collective is AF at the expense of individual restaurants. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:08:06

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 23:04:12

@nntaleb Never thought that. Restaurants have ALWAYS been fragile. The quality benefits from bankruptcies. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:03:44

@nntaleb I live there 3 mo/year … Permalink 2020-07-19 22:55:58

@nntaleb 2eltello Permalink 2020-07-19 22:40:37

@nntaleb Heik 2elello la 7sein mbére7. Permalink 2020-07-19 22:30:03

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order? Permalink 2020-07-19 21:01:42

@nntaleb @PZalloua is writing one. A real one Permalink 2020-07-19 18:46:41

@nntaleb He knows Classical Arabic but his native language is Levantine, 75% of a language away from Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-19 18:45:24

@nntaleb nitpicking: claim not claims Permalink 2020-07-19 17:21:17

@nntaleb nitpicking: speack IN French Permalink 2020-07-19 17:20:44

@nntaleb GODEL DU JOUR Someone hearing me speak french, – Ah you speak French [in French] Me [in French]: Not at all I am faking it (“je fais semblant”) – Sorry I mistakenly thought you spoke Fr Me [in French]: Everyone makes mistakes. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:15:18

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-19 17:09:25

@nntaleb Yes I blocked for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:01:30

@nntaleb The claims that I blocked Saifedean Ammous based on private communication is a lie. I blocked him on the basis of dangerously crankish and conspiratorial public feed. I block all lunatics. Gabish? Permalink 2020-07-19 16:51:29

@nntaleb Leish ya Bourashid ma btktob bil 7 mtlna la nefham bsr3a? Permalink 2020-07-19 13:19:54

@nntaleb Free PDF Permalink 2020-07-19 12:08:57

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 6 Footnotes. a) PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE The quality of hardcover books released now is so bad, as it publishers knew nobody would care about the book after 2 years. b) Few publishers are in for the 3rd wave: Penguin (UK), Knopf, etc. Why? It’s a small market! Permalink 2020-07-19 12:06:06

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 5 So, need to avoid “launches” to avoid the promiscuous 1st wave buyers. My books will not be launched/distributed, just to avoid the buyer who *buys books* rather than someone who wants the specific topic. I started my own publishing for StConsFTails. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:52:01

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 4 I am only interested in the 3rd wave (FBR, INCERTO-1, is ~20 y old); I am in a different business. I shd avoid the First Wave buyer, who doesn’t count long term. They rely on book reviewers (not time), e.g. that BSVendor @EasterbrookG for the NYT. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 3 Most Publishers make $from the First Wave, with increasingly lower quality paper that degrades w/time. Their staff isn’t even equipped for the 3rd Wave as no credits/promotions beyond the first/2nd year when the book is attributed to a specific editor Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 2 Then they move on to the next book & books go to low margin paperback & eventually die. 2nd Wave: Few books survive, only if they have #Lindy attributes, & or if some academic conversation props them up. Third Wave: One in 1,000 -10,000 makes it. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 1 First Wave: Fashion buyers, the class of people who systematically buy NEW “idea books”. The entire book industry organized to sell to them. Books must be “in the conversation”. The hardcover sales is where the $$$are made. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is what I am saying. Tribes and national statism are not the same thing. See PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-19 11:26:03

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 11:01:04

@nntaleb The dark story of the “enlightenment”. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:00:11

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-19 10:56:22

@nntaleb Just ordered. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-19 02:24:50

@nntaleb Ktir 2awiyyé Permalink 2020-07-19 00:16:01

@nntaleb Thanks Mansour! mt3addar it is, from Hydra AND, mysteriously, from an old Semitic tale about a donkey that grows heads when you cut one off. [Practically all Greek myth have a more ancient Aegyptian or Semitic counterpart] Te3dir تِعدير = antifragilty Permalink 2020-07-18 20:49:25

@nntaleb mt3addar! the right meaning. Permalink 2020-07-18 20:20:01

@nntaleb How about متلدن from تلدين, annealing? Permalink 2020-07-18 20:09:31

@nntaleb مش كافي Permalink 2020-07-18 20:07:09

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-18 20:01:59

@nntaleb 3am nt2arrab! Permalink 2020-07-18 19:58:50

@nntaleb לָֹא, יעני תחססנ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:52:22

@nntaleb In Hebrew was Anti shabir אנטי שביר Permalink 2020-07-18 19:49:41

@nntaleb robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:48:12

@nntaleb يعني اكل دعك… و تحسن Permalink 2020-07-18 19:46:36

@nntaleb منيحا هيده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:45:19

@nntaleb لئ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:44:19

@nntaleb متخبط ؟ كلمه جديده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:43:10

@nntaleb No no no Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:45

@nntaleb No no no ماكن= robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:27

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DISCUSSION Looking for a term close to Antifragile in Levantine (not necessarily Antifragile) for a translation of the article with @HsenAndil and @Zzeghedrane. It does not have to be literal Permalink 2020-07-18 19:19:12

@nntaleb Yes, you are right. This was not published… I didn’t recognize my words as I usually polish before putting in a book. Permalink 2020-07-18 18:37:01

@nntaleb I NEVER wrote this Permalink 2020-07-18 17:16:51

@nntaleb If you want. If so, pls add + ergodicity + IQ + GMO(s) + Brier Permalink 2020-07-18 17:13:48

@nntaleb The Khazar theory is but, was some BS by a political journalist. Permalink 2020-07-18 17:06:55

@nntaleb Hold off might get something better Permalink 2020-07-18 13:52:44

@nntaleb But can’t get the distinct Koura smell. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:45:01

@nntaleb I speculate that, aside from the dimensionality problem, e-books cannot produce odors, so I guess no olive oil. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:43:20

@nntaleb How much is shipping? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:37:47

@nntaleb Yes, of course, many historians are rigorous; which part of “usually” was not clear? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:35:19

@nntaleb We changed supplier. New one delivers immediately. You can cancel and reorder. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:33:50

@nntaleb “Orders” Permalink 2020-07-18 13:31:38

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:20:35

@nntaleb No, Aleppo: many look like him there. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:41:11

@nntaleb Cannot resist. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:31:40

@nntaleb 2) This is a “mamluk nobleman from Aleppo”. Explain how one could be BOTH slave and nobleman except in a structure similar to Mafia made man. Historians are usually not very bright; their classifications are absurd & they don’t have the guts or intellect to question them. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:25:48

@nntaleb Ingram the distributor is incompetent. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:13:57

@nntaleb No fucking imbecile, this is IN COMPARISON to other populations. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:12:41

@nntaleb HISTORICAL MUSING of the day: MAFIA & MAMELUKS The Mameluks were military “slaves” (oft. Chris. born) who were paradoxically the ruling class. How? Same w/MADE MEN in the Mafia. Once in you can’t get out. You are both owned by the mafia & part owner. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:10:50

@nntaleb Jaffer, block nitpickers. This has nothing to do with the gender of the predator. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:22:56

@nntaleb He is OK but no scholar. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:57

@nntaleb The biggest BS in discourse is claiming “people are self-interested and *rational*”. No. It is not so “rational” at the individual level; it is rational at the group level to wear mask under multiplicative risks because YOU are part of the multiplication. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:02

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 23:17:38

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? This is giving moral support to 000s of youth. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:03:20

@nntaleb Fuck, no. I’ve never seen an economist do real world statistics right. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:00:50

@nntaleb The precedent has begun. Detenuring is easy: close depts. Rent-seeking at the expense of middle class parents eventually has an end. Detenured professors in social science are unskilled labor outside citation rings. You can’t use an economist for gardening or moving furniture. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:45:09

@nntaleb The Indicator function gives you Pi. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:37:05

@nntaleb You represent the East Med. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:59:34

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 18:49:57

@nntaleb This is heroic. 1) Zalloua stays in Lebanon to be honorable/not a deserter. 2) Joins the univ. of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch (even better). 3) We are starting the EAST MED DATA SCIENCE CENTER. 4) Balamand is a 12 C Crusader outpost (Belmont), 6 km from Amioun. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:44:18

@nntaleb Siesta. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:16:46

@nntaleb Genetically, Meds are not made for the sun. 6000-3000 years is not enough. Their skin wrinkles. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:05:56

@nntaleb Why do I despise nitpickers? Tautology in LOGIC is a statement that is true by necessity. Do you mind if I block you? Don’t be offended. It is simple discipline: I managed in my life and in my Twitter feed to get rid of nitpickers. Permalink 2020-07-17 16:58:18

@nntaleb Fox News will some day discover that thing commonly known as tautology. #FoxNews Permalink 2020-07-17 16:10:23

@nntaleb Not always and not for everyone. Money cured my desire for luxuries. Permalink 2020-07-17 15:48:45

@nntaleb Siesta Permalink 2020-07-17 15:22:25

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-17 14:55:50

@nntaleb That fund? Permalink 2020-07-17 14:54:54

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-17 13:41:41

@nntaleb Vero Permalink 2020-07-17 13:37:44

@nntaleb @tomsmith585 Permalink 2020-07-17 13:33:05

@nntaleb I know it’s comedy. Problem is many don’t Permalink 2020-07-17 13:09:18

@nntaleb Weyn l Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-17 13:04:18

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME! Absense of sense of humor is a marker of a total inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, maxbitcoiners, Salafis, Protestant zealots, NYTcopyeditors, CancelCulturistas & others w/seriously defective intellects. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:55:45

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME thing! Absense of humor is a sign of inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, Salafis, zealots, etc. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:44:52

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people who write nonsense. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:38:45

@nntaleb Thanks to lax law enforcement in some U.S. cities these strategies might be actually used to promote mask use– a step up from social shaming. Permalink 2020-07-17 11:10:11

@nntaleb Any function of it. Permalink 2020-07-17 10:48:45

@nntaleb Why? This is both true and not racist at all since NonGaussian. Permalink 2020-07-17 01:45:50

@nntaleb And the highest title was “second teacher”, as nobody could reach the level of Aristotle. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:30:22

@nntaleb There were tonnnnnnnnns of Greek speaking people in the Khalifate (my ancestors and all educated pple in the coastal Levant). But Arabic language thinkers worshiped Aristotle but relied on “the interpreter” who wrote in Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:27:52

@nntaleb حلوة يريت استعملتها لما كتبت انتيهشاش Permalink 2020-07-16 22:12:17

@nntaleb Culinarily, America is now a Med colony. Permalink 2020-07-16 19:13:03

@nntaleb Having a lot of Twitter followers… not necessarily Permalink 2020-07-16 18:32:34

@nntaleb “Israeli style”? You mean Lebanese. Permalink 2020-07-16 18:29:43

@nntaleb You said Arabic doesn’t work Permalink 2020-07-16 18:28:53

@nntaleb As usual, they went to Alexandria … then. Athens was a relic. Permalink 2020-07-16 17:16:38

@nntaleb There is a yuuuuuuge Byzantine production repressed by Euro scholars because of Gibbons and the bad press of the enlightenment. Will find Mavroudi’s lecture. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:34:17

@nntaleb Reinvention; read reintroduction into the consciousness but since 3rd C BC Alexandria was the true Greek center. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:17:45

@nntaleb For 1800 years few Greeks discussed Athens. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:09:38

@nntaleb Which is why Hagia Sophia hurts. Greek is Hellenistic, not Classical; Nordics who reinvented a “Greek identity” w/Greek gods on coffeeshop takeout mugs never get it. Nor do Levantines brainwashed by Arab fascism. Athens is a German Disneyland-style reinvention in the early 19C. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:59:40

@nntaleb New York Suburbs. In normal times, this parking lot for commuters to NYC would be full. Sometimes all it takes is one single image to be hit with reality. I am still in disbelief. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:53:13

@nntaleb Maybe they use past record as prior Permalink 2020-07-16 13:33:27

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-16 11:37:30

@nntaleb Mabruk. Weyn? Permalink 2020-07-16 11:23:20

@nntaleb COVID is an economic stress test: the fragile is being destroyed (universities, airlines); the robust will thrive. It’s mostly an intellectual stress test; destroying fake probability: non-EVT epidemiology, naive”evidence based”(Ioannidis), BS vendors (@PTetlock🐁, Sunstein)… Permalink 2020-07-16 10:48:16

@nntaleb When Turkish was written with Arabic characters, they respected the sounds: “c” was “g”, etc. Permalink 2020-07-16 10:14:51

@nntaleb Palestinians from Galilee, particularly Christians, have the same genetics as Greeks and Southern Italians. Are Greeks “brown”? If so, is Aristotle “brown”? How did you get a theology degree being that stupid? Permalink 2020-07-16 01:21:29

@nntaleb Yes they took over and it was more like made men in the mafia: you are now a property of the mafia while being part owner. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:02:26

@nntaleb It’s going to get better. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:01:26

@nntaleb Never Beirut. It was largely migration into, unlike Tyre. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:45:21

@nntaleb Actually Med genetics! Permalink 2020-07-15 21:35:31

@nntaleb With help from Scribe Media @TuckerMax @zachobront Permalink 2020-07-15 21:22:50

@nntaleb Liguria is Med as hell Permalink 2020-07-15 21:19:27

@nntaleb No child sacrifice is fake news. They just buried dead children together. Greeks have plenty of aged persons in statues. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:15:13

@nntaleb Yes and the Jesuits messed it up with casuistry and use of equivocation. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:30:31

@nntaleb Look at the wrinkles! Permalink 2020-07-15 20:25:11

@nntaleb ALL Roman soldiers were free men, no? Same with Arabs. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:24:47

@nntaleb “Meds try to look older; more prestige…” True Trying to do a portrait for the French Incerto. Will look 24 years older and 24 lbs heavier. Why? this is not a diet/life coaching book. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:22:54

@nntaleb White lie. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:18:00

@nntaleb Lying (outside of white lies) is a sin, except when some busybody asks you something personal that’s none of their business or not relevant to the discussion. You are then morally obligated to confuse them. When journos ask me for my DoB, I always give Mandelbrot’s, 1924. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:14:41

@nntaleb Soon Permalink 2020-07-15 19:35:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-15 19:08:18

@nntaleb You can approve it is a different distributor, in stock. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:06:49

@nntaleb Actually it is in from another distributor. So you can wait for old order to be fulfilled or cancel and reorder, but for US only. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:05:40

@nntaleb Could it be Mori? Permalink 2020-07-15 18:59:22

@nntaleb Hi, when did you order? Thanks Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:33

@nntaleb I picked the MOST expensive paper I could find, full color. This is an artisanal book, where I wrote, typeset, formatted. Did the entire thing. Feels like #SoulInTheGame Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:09

@nntaleb Actually, the Naples version is a pun since “muori” is a town nearby. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:28:05

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:47

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:34

@nntaleb Soon you will see more evidence with my notes on the text. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:13:19

@nntaleb Je lis Frédéric Dard pour la langue. Pas d’académie, pas de controle. Permalink 2020-07-15 16:59:28

@nntaleb But those you can’t study for them Permalink 2020-07-15 16:47:29

@nntaleb If you must study for an exam, you will never really know the subject matter. Permalink 2020-07-15 15:49:30

@nntaleb Grant, you can get the class at TJ Max for $6 a pair! Permalink 2020-07-15 13:55:27

@nntaleb “Qui m’ont échappé”, cher compatriote grecophénicien. Permalink 2020-07-15 13:54:33

Catching Up | Twitter

Apologies, just going to put this here. Catching up a month and a half of NNT’s tweets.  I’ve heard from a few people who are locked out of Twitter at work that this has been useful. Back in the day when I started saving NNT’s tweets he was known to delete them at random and start again. Since he’s stopped doing that, this is sort of redundent but it forces me to pop in and see what he’s up to, and to collect relevant videos and publications.  I started this blog shortly after reading Fooled By Randomness. NNT was hardly known at the time and I felt his ideas were interesting and useful and that they could make a difference in the world. Well this many years later and the blog is more or less a habit as NNT has certainly made a name for himself. And his ideas are known and valued far and wide.

@nntaleb Might be outside EVT. Will look. Permalink 2020-07-14 22:48:33+00:00

@nntaleb I am doing an interview. Not yet decided with whom. Permalink 2020-07-14 22:48:10+00:00

@nntaleb You were a subject under the fake name citizen; the reverse is better. Permalink 2020-07-14 21:19:31+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ Am I the only one who sees similarities betw the cancel culture & France’s reign of terror, the use of empty slogans to indirectly promote the exact opposite of what is claimed (i.e., “diversity” ideas to promote “Northern-Euro (bleached) supremacy”), etc. ? Permalink 2020-07-14 19:49:05+00:00

@nntaleb Block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:44:41+00:00

@nntaleb I even reduced the burden when I discovered the effect of masks. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:09:51+00:00

@nntaleb Today July 14, some think they are celebrating “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” Not quite In fact they are celebrating verbalism & fake slogans: the move from UK-style constitutional monarchy to mob rule, reign of terror, arbitrary executions,…, then 70y of ABSOLUTE autocracy. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:08:35+00:00

@nntaleb Look up Ito’s lemma / stochastic process Permalink 2020-07-14 15:26:52+00:00

@nntaleb No, no Permalink 2020-07-14 15:07:06+00:00

@nntaleb Nobody has been working on formalizing Lindy. This is the next paper. Permalink 2020-07-14 15:01:15+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! What should I get? Permalink 2020-07-14 00:50:50+00:00

@nntaleb Will this work? Permalink 2020-07-14 00:46:09+00:00

@nntaleb He probably meant أخطبوط from χταπόδι Permalink 2020-07-13 22:18:26+00:00

@nntaleb A thread around my paper on p-values and p-value hacking, now a chapter in Stat Cons Fat Tails. Permalink 2020-07-13 22:16:20+00:00

@nntaleb Meanwhile Razib you are not paying attention to our correction to standard PCAs. Permalink 2020-07-13 20:17:55+00:00

@nntaleb @PZalloua We know the migration. Permalink 2020-07-13 20:10:19+00:00

@nntaleb I do not understand what you are looking for. Probability for an average to exceed the median is circular (under normal approximation mean converges to median). Permalink 2020-07-13 14:11:28+00:00

@nntaleb I agree here but by 2nd order effects I mean under nonlinearities which is an entirely different thingy. Permalink 2020-07-13 14:10:10+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-13 14:02:28+00:00

@nntaleb One mechanism Permalink 2020-07-13 13:26:55+00:00

@nntaleb Literary Persian is Indo-European with the majority of the vocabulary Semitic, 60% & higher for legal/medical texts, just as English is a nonRomance language with a high ratio of latin vocabulary. Same for Turkish w/ high ratio of Persian & Semitic vocabulary. Permalink 2020-07-13 12:09:21+00:00

@nntaleb Of course. Permalink 2020-07-13 10:59:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Masks Masquerade: Permalink 2020-07-13 10:59:29+00:00

@nntaleb Make lemon out of lemonade. Permalink 2020-07-13 10:28:38+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-13 02:45:23+00:00

@nntaleb It exists in ancient Hebrew Permalink 2020-07-13 02:44:13+00:00

@nntaleb Mistake: العنكبوت شبكتها should be العنكبوت شبكته since it appears to be masculine. Permalink 2020-07-13 02:19:38+00:00

@nntaleb He was not eating alone, then. At least not initially. I made a mistake. Permalink 2020-07-13 02:15:54+00:00

@nntaleb Erdogan’s recitation: We have three language groups… Literary Turkish was Persian and Literaty Persian was Semitic (borrowed from both Aramaic & Classical Arabic). لنترجم علمشرقي: “بقصر القيصر بتشدالعنكبوت شبكتها و البومة بتصيح تحت قبة أفراسياب Permalink 2020-07-13 02:14:50+00:00

@nntaleb Apologies never count when they are driven by fear or self-interest; they count only when they are voluntary, spontaneous, and self-motivated. Permalink 2020-07-12 21:18:58+00:00

@nntaleb Apologies never count when they are driven by self-interest; they count only when they are voluntary, spontaneous, and self-motivated. Permalink 2020-07-12 21:16:14+00:00

@nntaleb That was my thought. He was soooooo lucky neither you nor I were there. Permalink 2020-07-12 21:08:08+00:00

@nntaleb And @JoshHochschild although he is Catholic. Permalink 2020-07-12 13:49:26+00:00

@nntaleb Or, easier, reduce the central state whenever possible. Central State employment in Lebanon is largely patronage (“zelm”). It’s the case in all the Med (Italy for example). Permalink 2020-07-11 20:20:16+00:00

@nntaleb Along with @ektrit of course Permalink 2020-07-11 20:15:10+00:00

@nntaleb Last time I checked there were no caravan routes in Leb Permalink 2020-07-11 20:02:39+00:00

@nntaleb What does this have to do with anything? Permalink 2020-07-11 19:36:55+00:00

@nntaleb Among the few who got the theology part: @DrMichaelBonner Permalink 2020-07-11 19:34:32+00:00

@nntaleb There are ads claiming I will be giving a masterclass somewhere online. I give no masterclasses. Permalink 2020-07-11 18:52:08+00:00

@nntaleb Another one @EGKhoury Permalink 2020-07-11 17:35:17+00:00

@nntaleb Yes you cut in 2 compensating halves, as with Principal Values Permalink 2020-07-11 17:20:15+00:00

@nntaleb Basically only solution I can find without going through the complex domain Permalink 2020-07-11 17:03:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes wiki! I tried to create another one with Ceiling and Floor Permalink 2020-07-11 16:21:58+00:00

@nntaleb You need the aesthetics of Latex Permalink 2020-07-11 14:23:47+00:00

@nntaleb I did not write this, but I almost thought I did. The Nation state killed Mediterranean cosmopolitanism. Some in #Antifragile Permalink 2020-07-11 14:21:41+00:00

@nntaleb Because you are promoting PLAGIARISM, which is STOLEN WORK Permalink 2020-07-11 12:09:37+00:00

@nntaleb Except for Uber ratings! Permalink 2020-07-11 11:55:54+00:00

@nntaleb And of course the absurdity of a newspaper that publishes in French for a Christian elite opposing the formalization of local language on grounds of political correctness! Who the fuck are you fooling? Permalink 2020-07-11 11:55:26+00:00

@nntaleb Yes assumed Permalink 2020-07-11 11:26:52+00:00

@nntaleb Nigel Warburton, though is highly unethical. Permalink 2020-07-11 11:14:24+00:00

@nntaleb CORRECTIONS, one by author of the problem, second (inequality becomes equality) thanks to @mcs1870 Permalink 2020-07-11 10:47:46+00:00

@nntaleb Uber rating is central. The rest is just window dressing. Permalink 2020-07-11 10:29:34+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking Liar The piece has NOTHING to do with “Phoenicianism” but origin of spoken language. It explicitly says it does not descend from “Phoenician” Fucking liar. Permalink 2020-07-11 10:16:18+00:00

@nntaleb How about 60yo Deads 400? Permalink 2020-07-10 21:59:29+00:00

@nntaleb Yes you need to bounce within 1-2Y, or we are doomed. Permalink 2020-07-10 21:58:12+00:00

@nntaleb To illustrate how stable the alpha is for pandemics, here are computations taking each time randomly only 40% of the observations. You get the same with the stock market, wars, etc. Permalink 2020-07-10 21:11:33+00:00

@nntaleb Actually good ham (Iberico, Serrano, etc.) is 100% from VEGETARIAN pigs. Permalink 2020-07-10 20:59:22+00:00

@nntaleb Triple imbecile, is my article causing their poverty or preventing their exit from it? Imbecile. Permalink 2020-07-10 20:32:16+00:00

@nntaleb Not in the book but you need an energy constraint to get the Gaussian. Permalink 2020-07-10 18:07:26+00:00

@nntaleb Language is WHERE power laws were really discovered (George Zipf). Mandelbrot did his thesis on information theory… rediscovering the effect. Permalink 2020-07-10 18:02:25+00:00

@nntaleb Tatiana, “Middle Eastern country” is a severe misdescription. Mediterranean is more accurate. Permalink 2020-07-10 17:07:27+00:00

@nntaleb By now, dolarization works. Permalink 2020-07-10 15:41:16+00:00

@nntaleb For journalists and imbeciles like you, yes. Permalink 2020-07-10 14:04:25+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, but explained the necessary education is high school/technical skills. Not university Permalink 2020-07-10 14:02:26+00:00

@nntaleb Wait and you will get one closer to you. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:23:38+00:00

@nntaleb Me, president of Lebanon? It is like asking a fighter pilot to drive an Uber. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:07:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Iranian educational system is impressive. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:04:19+00:00

@nntaleb You make sooooooooooooooooooooo little sense. In what agricultural place does the majority of the people own agricultural land? Permalink 2020-07-10 13:01:20+00:00

@nntaleb Ignore ergodic here. It is just fat tailed. Permalink 2020-07-10 12:16:19+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile it is called MATH and if you don’t know what you are talking about do your homework or STAY OUT of math. Permalink 2020-07-10 12:15:56+00:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? Permalink 2020-07-10 12:01:20+00:00

@nntaleb It has been FREE on the web for 12 months. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:41:34+00:00

@nntaleb Stat conse of fat tails is 100% ANALYTICAL Permalink 2020-07-10 11:39:23+00:00

@nntaleb You must be a total idiot since my points are clear enough for the author of the cited article to get it perfectly. Total idiot. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:38:51+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck no. It is all decentralized, private, or via religious institutions. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:34:21+00:00

@nntaleb Finally people in decision science are GETTING OUR POINT, starting to move away from naive “evidence based” empiricism, realizing that many psycholophasters such as @CassSunstein and @PTetlock are using fortune cookie tools. Permalink 2020-07-10 10:56:06+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite. Educational levels are lower. Permalink 2020-07-10 10:49:31+00:00

@nntaleb I just published Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility Permalink 2020-07-10 10:36:40+00:00

@nntaleb Zoom dinners work! Ask @trishankkarthik to put you on the list Permalink 2020-07-09 23:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb I remember Pierre Gemayyel transcribed as Bayyar Jamil Permalink 2020-07-09 22:31:50+00:00

@nntaleb I see. For I have actually added to ergodicity in 2009 for the 2nd edition. Permalink 2020-07-09 19:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb W sanfirlo 3al sanfiryél Permalink 2020-07-09 19:03:52+00:00

@nntaleb These were not ADDED. They were there from the beginning. Permalink 2020-07-09 18:58:41+00:00

@nntaleb OK, but then please don’t read anything by Anita Brookner. Permalink 2020-07-09 17:08:09+00:00

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo. Permalink 2020-07-09 17:00:10+00:00

@nntaleb But I fast usually instead of eating alone. Forces you to socialize. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:57:52+00:00

@nntaleb Yes for me it’s sushi Permalink 2020-07-09 16:57:18+00:00

@nntaleb Qui mange seul meurt seul. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:37:48+00:00

@nntaleb I keep saying: don’t expect too many human traits from people who eat dinner alone. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:14:36+00:00

@nntaleb They keep them for 2000 years Permalink 2020-07-09 15:46:04+00:00

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink 2020-07-09 15:45:26+00:00

@nntaleb Actually Jaffer is half Greek Permalink 2020-07-09 14:50:20+00:00

@nntaleb No he doesn’t or doesn’t understand. Strawman that misses scaling. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:26:51+00:00

@nntaleb OK OK. Tlabt w7dé. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:25:05+00:00

@nntaleb ASYMMETRY Someone wants to interview my “enemies”. Tried to make a list: I cannot find one who knows MY work. But I know THEIR works. Alas, *almost* all my enemies are people angry because I am going after them(“BS BUSTING CRUSADE), not because they don’t like my work. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:11:11+00:00

@nntaleb Which grinder should I get. Permalink 2020-07-09 13:28:39+00:00

@nntaleb Will this work? Permalink 2020-07-09 12:50:14+00:00

@nntaleb Comme si c’était du sport! Permalink 2020-07-08 22:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Sartre also had the decency to write to the Nobel committee asking for his name to be removed from consideration. His refusal was not an ex post free option. Permalink 2020-07-08 19:48:58+00:00

@nntaleb The minute you have an affiliation, you are no longer to be trusted with your opinion. The patron saint of intellectuals Jean-Paul Sartre declined the Nobel Prize in Lit because did not want to be “institutionalised”. His opinions would reflect on the Nobel & vice versa. Permalink 2020-07-08 19:45:50+00:00

@nntaleb Also PREASYMPTOTICS, the topic of STAT CONS OF FAT TAILS Permalink 2020-07-08 17:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb Forgot that I discussed ergodicity in The Black Swan! Second edition, 2009. cc:@ole_b_peters Permalink 2020-07-08 17:18:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes the identity becomes an inequality. Permalink 2020-07-08 16:14:43+00:00

@nntaleb The wine cooler Permalink 2020-07-08 16:13:40+00:00

@nntaleb Power law is always for the tails, as x->+-\infty Permalink 2020-07-08 15:42:35+00:00

@nntaleb It is ~~ or + O(f(x))^5 Permalink 2020-07-08 02:02:11+00:00

@nntaleb You do not want to be “cancelled” by 1) Your barber 2) Your butcher 3) The owner of your favorite restaurant The rest can go f*** themselves. #BeingIndependent Permalink 2020-07-08 01:58:34+00:00

@nntaleb It is Arcsin[h], which is log[h + Sqrt[1 + h^2]] Permalink 2020-07-08 01:52:26+00:00

@nntaleb Reminder: You do not become free by becoming prominent. You will be canceled if you stray from the monoculture. As in Kundera’s *Joke*, they will find something you said somewhere that you don’t even remember. Your public “apologies” will make you look even more vulnerable. Permalink 2020-07-07 21:55:48+00:00

@nntaleb I mean PPP is a fraud and I agree with @PeterSchiff Permalink 2020-07-07 21:13:03+00:00

@nntaleb Fraud, again. Permalink 2020-07-07 20:38:28+00:00

@nntaleb Shipped July 12 latest Permalink 2020-07-07 19:27:57+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck that! This is what I do Permalink 2020-07-07 19:15:30+00:00

@nntaleb Computer, both LateX and Mathematica Permalink 2020-07-07 19:07:07+00:00

@nntaleb Must be f’>1 Permalink 2020-07-07 18:53:05+00:00

@nntaleb Typo Permalink 2020-07-07 18:49:53+00:00

@nntaleb It is always embarrassing to fail to solve something when one’s picture is on it. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:47:03+00:00

@nntaleb In case it rains. [Note that all non-math related commentators will be blocked] Permalink 2020-07-07 18:24:51+00:00

@nntaleb IMBECILE it’s the virus that’s sabotaging the economy. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:13:57+00:00

@nntaleb He claimed he should meet patients and shake hands, mingle with them. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:13:20+00:00

@nntaleb The best approach is to eyeball the “Karamata point”. You can recognize it when you see it. No other approach works as well. @Heinonmatti Permalink 2020-07-07 16:58:24+00:00

@nntaleb Early virus denial got Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro so far. A few left… Permalink 2020-07-07 16:38:23+00:00

@nntaleb Keep Scott Adams outside matters with any quantitative/scientific or logical dimension. Permalink 2020-07-07 16:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb The draughtsperson used a Disraeli novel. Permalink 2020-07-07 13:57:21+00:00

@nntaleb It was drawn from description Permalink 2020-07-07 13:54:22+00:00

@nntaleb Mazel tov Permalink 2020-07-07 12:04:48+00:00

@nntaleb This is called “opinion against interest”. Permalink 2020-07-07 11:14:42+00:00

@nntaleb The great Mandelbrot, during his naturalization exams. Examiner: “how many stripes…” M: “what is a stripe? The white or the red”? I had EXACTLY the same reaction. What people call “stripe” is cultural, has tacit foundations. Permalink 2020-07-07 01:17:00+00:00

@nntaleb Evidence that people pay for the Chanel brand to impress their neighbors, not for the underlying quality. It is all about buying certification, not knowledge. Permalink 2020-07-06 23:36:08+00:00

@nntaleb Or mathematicians! Permalink 2020-07-06 23:34:23+00:00

@nntaleb IQ is not NorthernEuro-centric or anthropocentric (i.e., representing a type of intelligence for a certain environment). No. It is just NERD-CENTRIC. It is also part of a sinister racial/eugenist program. Permalink 2020-07-06 20:47:38+00:00

@nntaleb Institutes based on the ideas of (dead) anti-rent seekers are populated with employees who use the institute for rent seeking. Nonprofit organizations should have an expiration date. Permalink 2020-07-06 20:27:49+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-07-06 18:06:32+00:00

@nntaleb Where is the list? There must be others. Permalink 2020-07-06 18:00:55+00:00

@nntaleb Reason 1 – Real estate developers Reason 2- Professors … Permalink 2020-07-06 17:51:48+00:00

@nntaleb I support Pinker. Yes, he’s a BS operator posing as a scientist. Yes he is clueless abt genetics. Yes, he has no erudition yet writes abt the enlightment. But they’re not going after him for this. If they get him they can get ANYONE who depends on the system. #LeavePinkerAlone Permalink 2020-07-06 15:28:03+00:00

@nntaleb Did you get a copy? Permalink 2020-07-06 14:52:00+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks Atrin! Here is the summary graph, with legend on right: Permalink 2020-07-06 11:36:32+00:00

@nntaleb A reminder that #deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later (fellow was 41, died after 3 m). How many? NO IDEA. Too much uncertainty. Furthermore media statistics & numbers do not seem to focus on morbidity. Permalink 2020-07-06 11:14:37+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! It is NOT symmetric, goes mostly in one direction. Permalink 2020-07-06 11:07:17+00:00

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness applied to regression slopes. Random points ALWAYS produce a slope. Permalink 2020-07-06 10:46:54+00:00

@nntaleb Olympic lifts! Permalink 2020-07-06 10:09:27+00:00

@nntaleb Projects that “brew” grow best! Indeed we need to revisit. Permalink 2020-07-06 10:01:30+00:00

@nntaleb Bravo! Do you know how much caffeine there in the output of a small Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-06 09:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb I am glad this prick is not in Lebanon. Where I am spending more and more time. Permalink 2020-07-06 02:51:39+00:00

@nntaleb Hi, thanks Let me see if @yaneerbaryam can be interested Permalink 2020-07-06 02:22:46+00:00

@nntaleb He has a series of such posts. I looked at his CV in disbelief: “prestigious” publications in econ journals which tell you economics MUST BE a citation ring. I can understand BS Vendors like @PTetlock publishing in psych journals. But this is economics, a bit more quantitative. Permalink 2020-07-06 02:07:56+00:00

@nntaleb Incompetence so, so extreme can only be dealt with by counting it as pure fraud. Permalink 2020-07-06 01:44:26+00:00

@nntaleb You can always tell. Permalink 2020-07-05 22:27:56+00:00

@nntaleb Probably late Bronze age, then remember name was Baal, then temples of Bacchus and Jupiter. Permalink 2020-07-05 19:50:30+00:00

@nntaleb Hint: name is Baal Permalink 2020-07-05 19:31:48+00:00

@nntaleb Baalbeck 2020 Live! In the most impressive Graeco-Roman temple left. via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-05 19:18:18+00:00

@nntaleb Sunday Math du Jour in memory of @CutTheKnotMath I build in the days of Alexander Bogomolny a program to “cheat” with proofs of inequalities. Here it is Permalink 2020-07-05 17:36:31+00:00

@nntaleb If “straightforward” please present straightforward solution or you get blocked. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-05 13:08:30+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, tighter bound! Permalink 2020-07-05 13:02:42+00:00

@nntaleb The Llave is uneven: some packets foam, others don’t. And the Illi for Mokka doesn’t foam. Is it from the degradation/loss of oil ? Permalink 2020-07-05 11:58:10+00:00

@nntaleb Not hard, but I guess there is a hint that I should post. Permalink 2020-07-05 10:02:15+00:00

@nntaleb I’ve never met a rich nitpicker. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:40:04+00:00

@nntaleb Your alpha is wrong. Eliminate values to the left and redo. It is not close to the points on the right. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:10:48+00:00

@nntaleb Was told by doctas they got the hang of immunosuppressants etc. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:03:25+00:00

@nntaleb Not yet. Permalink 2020-07-04 21:37:12+00:00

@nntaleb These answers are an intelligence test Permalink 2020-07-04 21:36:35+00:00

@nntaleb Happy birthday America. Today was born the first modern state democracy and (still) by far the most robust one! Permalink 2020-07-04 21:30:21+00:00

@nntaleb Also Nice to see my arguments circulating: simple powerful points that appear obvious once you hear them. ” a quick twitter thought, if IQ was highest Northern Europe as usually claimed why has N. Europe remained so primitive compared to other places for most of history?” Permalink 2020-07-04 21:24:01+00:00

@nntaleb The book has a bio. Permalink 2020-07-04 20:16:18+00:00

@nntaleb Except for @GrantSSC training videos are mostly trainers theorizing to the camera, sometimes 95% of the time. Not good for people with short attention spans (like myself). With Grant, you see short videos of movement. Permalink 2020-07-04 18:41:27+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ You can complain that Youtube should not cancel him as it should be open to all. But DO NOT claim that someone is repressing “science”. There is no science. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:47:53+00:00

@nntaleb Charlatan @StefanMolyneux promoted quackeries as scientific facts (incl country IQ) to >1 million YouTube subscribers. Includes episode abt me. His Youtube was cancelled. Don’t tell me it was about science. There is no “science”. It’s about hate. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:42:19+00:00

@nntaleb Charlatan @StefanMolyneux promoted quackeries as scientific facts (incl country IQ) to >1 million YouTube subscribers. Includes episode abt me. His Youtube was cancelled. Don’t tell me it was about science. There is no “science”. It’s about hate. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:38:24+00:00

@nntaleb They normalized. Ha! Permalink 2020-07-04 17:20:34+00:00

@nntaleb I meant @PTetlock Permalink 2020-07-04 16:25:49+00:00

@nntaleb Has nothing to do with shame/no shame. Has to do with binarization of people into groups. We Meds may want to be multiculturals because WE cross many cultures. Nobody shd be able to stop us. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:24:07+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. But it is prevalent in universities & state policies. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:17:02+00:00

@nntaleb Then why does Arabism cling to a monolithic identity? It is pure fascism. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:12:02+00:00

@nntaleb Here are the levels of understanding of probability. Many people discuss probability without knowing what it means: someone like @Ptelock comes at bottom. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:11:02+00:00

@nntaleb Great. Plomin makes a critical mistake nobody noticed: 1) transitivity and 2) noise (he himself wrote that you correlation at .8 with your own scores). Permalink 2020-07-04 16:07:56+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:01:26+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:01:01+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:00:38+00:00

@nntaleb My point is that you cannot do “science” without knowing & rigorously applying statistics & you cannot do statistics without knowing & rigorously applying mathematical statistics & you cannot do mathematical statistics without knowing & rigorously applying probability theory. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:35:55+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked a lot of responders repeating “look at empirical evidence” or “this is science” used by mountebanks such as @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, and ignorant psychologists. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:24:56+00:00

@nntaleb Do Average not Total. Also as a discipline use n>10K since it is a free option This you can do analytically, simple binomial. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:21:52+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:18:55+00:00

@nntaleb There is a sinister racist-eugenist program tying intelligence to race, meant to degrade populations, with policy implications on welfare, immigration, & more sinister matters. The country IQ is fake news, entirely concocted. AND IT IS CONTINUING! Permalink 2020-07-04 14:15:23+00:00

@nntaleb Localism means focusing on water and electricity rather than geopolitics and Iran/Saudi Arabia, etc. Permalink 2020-07-03 21:28:21+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-03 20:09:18+00:00

@nntaleb Actually loglogplot gives…worse. Permalink 2020-07-03 19:44:39+00:00

@nntaleb You mean with math? Permalink 2020-07-03 18:38:08+00:00

@nntaleb Losing weight has its disadvantages! On texhné-epistemé by Big time Tommy via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-03 18:31:16+00:00

@nntaleb The cook for RWRI Permalink 2020-07-03 18:24:40+00:00

@nntaleb I block conspiracy theorists. Sorry nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-03 15:23:30+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile! Permalink 2020-07-03 15:22:15+00:00

@nntaleb 1/n Attention #LebanonProtests The US ambassador may be a great person with great intentions but it is not a good idea to associate the protests w/a foreign entity & GEOPOLITICS. This WILL make the problem geopolitical w/East-West tensions when it is entirely local. #Localism Permalink 2020-07-03 11:44:09+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck the French. They got the sophistication in the Levant/Med during the Crusades: sorbet from Tripoli, scalions from Ashkelon, sauces with herbs from the Levant/Mediterranean. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:55:45+00:00

@nntaleb foreword Permalink 2020-07-03 10:53:14+00:00

@nntaleb I thought it came from Safaitic… mayy etc. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:35:26+00:00

@nntaleb Have you see this? It spread a lot. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:16:34+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, please help correct this foreward. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-03 10:12:07+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-03 09:31:06+00:00

@nntaleb It is so much easier to do it online. Many more people can participate who could not afford a trip to NY Permalink 2020-07-03 09:25:58+00:00

@nntaleb 2) French descends from Latin. LEvantine DOES NOT descend from Fus7a. Semitic languages are more diffuse. Permalink 2020-07-03 09:23:57+00:00

@nntaleb 1) In PRINCIPIA POLITICA I give examples of Arab fascism: just imposing an identity on someone is fascism. Why is it OK to be a BAsque/Catalan separatist but not a localist in Leb? The left is very sympathetic to this. Permalink 2020-07-03 09:23:17+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Extremely sorry for the inconvenience. Permalink 2020-07-03 00:42:21+00:00

@nntaleb It s the same music, Words@change Permalink 2020-07-02 21:48:32+00:00

@nntaleb Nor did her father… Permalink 2020-07-02 20:07:57+00:00

@nntaleb ETHICS: never look for studies as backup for argument, derive arguments from studies. You get caught. Crackpots are so desperate to show that masks don’t work that they link to any study: turns out nonpeer-reviewed, never cited in 4 y, in a nonjournal but industry magazine. Permalink 2020-07-02 20:03:00+00:00

@nntaleb For our seminar we can hire instructors offshore now that we are online. Permalink 2020-07-02 19:47:05+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need a visa to work remote… and more and more people are doing so. Permalink 2020-07-02 19:33:36+00:00

@nntaleb Avoid socialites; never befriend rich & famous people who mosly socialize with rich & famous people. Permalink 2020-07-02 17:14:52+00:00

@nntaleb …particularly squid ink! Permalink 2020-07-02 16:33:51+00:00

@nntaleb I do not think much of #DominicCummings (@yaneerbaryam & I wrote he gets complexity backwards). But the impostor’s @PTetlock’s “superforecasters” is far worse: a vast deception –similar to screening for rectal cancer using the Department of Motor Vehicles’ standing eye exam. Permalink 2020-07-02 16:33:02+00:00

@nntaleb Bought! Permalink 2020-07-02 15:49:42+00:00

@nntaleb It is not statistically significant. Why? Fat Tails. Permalink 2020-07-02 15:29:48+00:00

@nntaleb Michael Levitt is banking on his Nobel in… chemistry to apply Ord differential Equa on a stochastic time series! By DEFINITION a stochastic time series is NOWHERE DIFFERENTIABLE (except via smoothing function, which is circular). This crackpot caters to RightWing conspiracies Permalink 2020-07-02 15:24:22+00:00

@nntaleb It is crap outside London, Paris, NY, Brooklyn… But very good in these cities. Permalink 2020-07-02 15:08:48+00:00

@nntaleb This one is good: explains an aspect of skin in the game: revelation of preferences. Permalink 2020-07-02 13:43:59+00:00

@nntaleb If you want to be a bit disturbed: if Socrates lived today he would look much more like this guy than a nerdy philosophy professor checking student grades & academic rank who happens to lecture on Socrates. via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-02 13:32:18+00:00

@nntaleb No connection, just interest. Permalink 2020-07-02 12:51:02+00:00

@nntaleb Bert, visit Beirut when I am there. Permalink 2020-07-02 12:40:56+00:00

@nntaleb Mediterraneo orientale, non lo so esattamente Permalink 2020-07-02 11:57:55+00:00

@nntaleb …and the highest resolution, of course, is Aleppo’s. Permalink 2020-07-02 11:53:27+00:00

@nntaleb Scenarios are TOTAL BS under thick tails! Permalink 2020-07-02 11:22:57+00:00

@nntaleb Trying to explain the difference between Greek, Turkish, and Lebanese food. They’re all similar but Lebanese food is higher resolution. Permalink 2020-07-02 11:16:41+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-02 10:29:20+00:00

@nntaleb If Permalink 2020-07-02 02:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-02 01:45:25+00:00

@nntaleb Harry is a card carrying member of our Mask Wearing- BS Buster Probability Brigade. MW-BSBPB, formerly BSBPB Permalink 2020-07-02 01:44:36+00:00

@nntaleb 1 min Permalink 2020-07-02 00:32:00+00:00

@nntaleb Nice travel suitcase. Very nice. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:30:39+00:00

@nntaleb I have an extra copy of the real thing somewhere. You must return to Amazon. Was printed by a robot. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:09:20+00:00

@nntaleb Not a subset. Conditional probability. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:03:08+00:00

@nntaleb Then tried dried pasta. Worked beautifully. Permalink 2020-07-01 23:06:40+00:00

@nntaleb I tried pasta. Best ingredients, so went for fresh pasta. Failed miserably with fresh pasta: was not aldente, rather the reverse. Wonder why dried pasta is better than fresh. Permalink 2020-07-01 23:00:17+00:00

@nntaleb THIS IS A SCAM. Do not send $$Dear @YouTube This is a SCAM. I have been reporting for 24 hours. They are impersonating me. Even sent my passport screenshot to show it was not my channel. I know of 20 people who reported. Why is @Youtube so slow in reacting? Permalink 2020-07-01 22:15:20+00:00

@nntaleb Scam alert! Not me Permalink 2020-07-01 21:57:59+00:00

@nntaleb If you like my oeuvre you should hate nitpicking. Permalink 2020-07-01 19:16:20+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-01 18:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Friends of Maestro @CutTheKnotMath, RIP I am writing an intro to the book on Probability riddles, please share anecdotes if you have one. Permalink 2020-07-01 18:11:37+00:00

@nntaleb Speaking a language is NOT speeches & declamations but conversation. For 500 years Europe used Latin without speaking it. Mafhum? Permalink 2020-07-01 17:35:22+00:00

@nntaleb (Ignoring the false positives/false negatives as too small an effect here) Permalink 2020-07-01 17:12:16+00:00

@nntaleb ANSWER (FRAMEWORK): We can use this very simple approach for conditional probability: if those who tested have more positives in them. So much less than 1%, with some information we can get closer. Permalink 2020-07-01 17:09:04+00:00

@nntaleb QUESTION If ~1% of people tested in NY test positive, assuming nonrandom testing, what is the proportion of people infected? Permalink 2020-07-01 16:26:25+00:00

@nntaleb In Lebanon it used to be Christians who loved Classical Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-01 16:17:31+00:00

@nntaleb It is actually (partly) here in our debate with Ioannidis. I would not debate @Ptetlock Permalink 2020-07-01 15:48:54+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-01 15:39:10+00:00

@nntaleb What kind of nonsense is this? Because I debunk bullshitters everyone is not a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:38:38+00:00

@nntaleb Tetlock is an academic fraud. A total academic fraud. More, later. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:27:38+00:00

@nntaleb Why is Arabic the world’s most difficult language to learn?(“fus7a” & “modern literary arabic”) Simply because it is NOT spoken. And @Safaitic & @PhDniX showed was NEVER spoken as such. It’s a COMPLICATED literary construction by poets/scholars. Local languages are EASY. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:24:33+00:00

@nntaleb Yes but my objective is to be a human, which includes some strength, not to become strong. Molto differente Permalink 2020-06-30 19:59:03+00:00

@nntaleb One week… We sold out the first printing! Permalink 2020-06-30 19:36:56+00:00

@nntaleb Merci Permalink 2020-06-30 19:31:57+00:00

@nntaleb Neither, in Jan. Quarantine/Reduced mobility. Permalink 2020-06-30 19:28:50+00:00

@nntaleb Two ways to look at it. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:54:52+00:00

@nntaleb FRAUD ALERT Permalink 2020-06-30 18:42:28+00:00

@nntaleb No, it is not (1.01)^365 since I used Log[deaths date t]-Log[deaths date t-1] so my growth rate is the exponential one. Hece Exp[365/100]. Look at code above. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:34:09+00:00

@nntaleb They are not @nntaleb’s ideas. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:31:30+00:00

@nntaleb Here is my code Permalink 2020-06-30 18:12:47+00:00

@nntaleb Actually the graph is using true exponential growth, so Exp[365/100] Permalink 2020-06-30 17:47:15+00:00

@nntaleb COVID-19 Just a reminder that something that keeps growing at 1% a day gets multiplied by 38 in one year. Permalink 2020-06-30 17:35:44+00:00

@nntaleb Doesn’t count unless you start from the floor. Permalink 2020-06-30 15:37:16+00:00

@nntaleb No its speed is preasymptotic and distribution specific Permalink 2020-06-30 12:55:06+00:00

@nntaleb There is no depth. Simply, LLN Permalink 2020-06-30 12:27:38+00:00

@nntaleb Il faut attendre un peu. J’ai un format. A suivre Permalink 2020-06-30 12:14:32+00:00

@nntaleb Lorenzo there is not much more in the book. All about LLN Permalink 2020-06-30 12:06:20+00:00

@nntaleb On devrait collaborer sur le “country IQ”. J’ai vu vos commentaires. Permalink 2020-06-30 11:15:24+00:00

@nntaleb I made mistakes in that direction. Never the other. Permalink 2020-06-30 11:11:48+00:00

@nntaleb No no no, not what i am saying! Centralism is function dependent. Benoux is in bad faith. Permalink 2020-06-29 20:15:08+00:00

@nntaleb Akademik? Permalink 2020-06-29 19:00:07+00:00

@nntaleb More interesting is the plural of تبع. We say تبعولي In Zahlé they say تبعيني The plural for تاع is تاعولي @QifaNabki Permalink 2020-06-29 17:24:20+00:00

@nntaleb Sel-fulfillment is PRECISELY what it is not. BS term in the “success” literature. Permalink 2020-06-29 17:04:31+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! If origin is just متاع why do people in East Beirut and North say تبع for the same thing? In Amioun we use تبع for تاع and متاعين for former semi-serfs (before 1860 those who wer subjects of a feudal lord) Permalink 2020-06-29 16:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb No no no no. Use loglogplot (Zipf plot) Permalink 2020-06-29 16:10:05+00:00

@nntaleb Linguam. Lungua = rwéya Permalink 2020-06-29 15:33:39+00:00

@nntaleb Pierre dove hai imparato l’italiano? Permalink 2020-06-29 15:28:45+00:00

@nntaleb Va bene in italiano? “L’assenza di prove non è una prova di assenza” Permalink 2020-06-29 15:14:56+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots, Mr Hazel. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-29 14:40:45+00:00

@nntaleb Karoun is Armenian, my friend. Permalink 2020-06-29 13:55:42+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-29 13:54:11+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need a lot of data for Lindy. just prove it is a power law. 5 points suffice! Permalink 2020-06-29 13:52:21+00:00

@nntaleb A person stopped cycling when his odometer ceased to function, waiting for a replacement. He felt his cycling “did not count”. This explains the difference between an academic & a real scholar. Permalink 2020-06-29 13:41:49+00:00

@nntaleb Lindy does not mean alpha = 2 Permalink 2020-06-29 13:33:11+00:00

@nntaleb All, depends on structure. Megacorps are borderline Permalink 2020-06-29 13:02:08+00:00

@nntaleb Am I the first to notice that she has a remarkable lung capacity to shout and scream but none for a surgical mask? Permalink 2020-06-29 12:39:28+00:00

@nntaleb These are specific villages under Maronite feudal lords Permalink 2020-06-29 12:34:17+00:00

@nntaleb In Amioun we use Tab3ak and Mte3in to describe people from poor villages. Permalink 2020-06-29 12:25:59+00:00

@nntaleb ذو Permalink 2020-06-29 11:44:00+00:00

@nntaleb Weyn inta? Fransa؟ Permalink 2020-06-29 11:16:32+00:00

@nntaleb Why is it that in Achrafieh it is تبعك? Different root? Permalink 2020-06-29 11:14:32+00:00

@nntaleb Lebanon. Going there but must be tested twice. 4 days after arrival. Permalink 2020-06-29 11:08:51+00:00

@nntaleb I did not block Benoux because he is bullshitter (he is). I blocked him because he is in BAD FAITH. Gabish? @jbarrpartarr Permalink 2020-06-29 10:58:07+00:00

@nntaleb In Egyptian becomes بتاعك . Just wondering abt ancient forms. Permalink 2020-06-29 10:44:54+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL RIDDLE DU JOUR In Maltese & South Med (& Beirut’s Basta), yours is Tiegħek, تاعك but there is no obvious Semitic root. Hebrew is שלך and Arabic is clumsy خاصة بك Can it be that تبعك => تابع لك comes from it? Coincidence w/ the Latin “tua”! What is the @safaitic? Permalink 2020-06-29 10:43:52+00:00

@nntaleb Advice: buy something already built. Lots of unexpected problems. Sallmé khebzek lal khebbéz wlaw akal nesso! Permalink 2020-06-29 01:53:01+00:00

@nntaleb Noura is very very good. Maybe the colors in the picture. Permalink 2020-06-29 01:29:45+00:00

@nntaleb Oh no! Permalink 2020-06-29 00:29:36+00:00

@nntaleb É. Min l Ashrafié. M2abil mat3am Al Mayyas min ma jeddé eja senet 1923. Permalink 2020-06-28 23:36:43+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, being practically from Beirut (3rd generation, though officially from Ancestral Amioun), I can spot the quality of hummus from a picture. Let’s see. Permalink 2020-06-28 23:01:07+00:00

@nntaleb You are realllllly looking for trouble. There are secrets & tricks that are NOT in the recipe books. Permalink 2020-06-28 20:53:35+00:00

@nntaleb Yes when the ship is drowning you need to sit down and worry about geopolitics. It is people saying such crap that are the cause of the disaster. Permalink 2020-06-28 18:21:53+00:00

@nntaleb Guru! Are you 59 now? Permalink 2020-06-28 18:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb Do you see ME taking instructions from some slow-thinking wage-slave bureaucrat? Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-06-28 18:00:21+00:00

@nntaleb 3) Why keep Global Politics for later. [Chapter in SITG] Permalink 2020-06-28 17:58:37+00:00

@nntaleb You read too much global politics propaganda. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:55:56+00:00

@nntaleb In principle, any municipality is a private co-op group. Making it one single owner can be a problem. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:54:39+00:00

@nntaleb False dichotomy. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:24:09+00:00

@nntaleb 2) The idiots at the US State Dept should also stay out of finance. The incompetent US ambassador in #Lebanon made statements supporting #RiadPonzi the most dangerous central banker in history. This is economically and ethically unacceptable, Ambassador shd keep mouth shut. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:23:19+00:00

@nntaleb Re: US Ambassador in #Lebanon, ftntes -Severe problems require coordination & harmony, & the U.S. State Dept is playing GEOPOLITICS at the wrong time -USSD employees are mostly dangerously clueless #IYI interventionistas who see the world ONLY in terms of Geopolitics #localism Permalink 2020-06-28 17:19:49+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ For books you reread, read both text and footnotes. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:18:05+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-28 17:06:45+00:00

@nntaleb For popular books, read the text, not the footnotes. For scholarly books, read the footnotes, not the text. For social science books, read neither text nor footnote. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:43:57+00:00

@nntaleb What do you mean? That one should answer this? The paper answers it but one needs to know distributions. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:38:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, strangely. Grant, my basement floor is slightly uneven (house built in 1928). Makes one side heavier. Any problem? Permalink 2020-06-28 16:32:35+00:00

@nntaleb You will note that our answer to Ioannidis is… in a footnote. The rest is on how to deal with pandemics. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:30:28+00:00

@nntaleb They have > life expectancy, INCLUDING suicide. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:24:32+00:00

@nntaleb Spyros don’t be modest. We all learn from you! Permalink 2020-06-28 16:19:09+00:00

@nntaleb Debate with Ioannidis is live! Scientific papers are in, after the initial blog posts. with @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo Thanks @pierrepinson & @spyrosmakrid ! Permalink 2020-06-28 16:16:12+00:00

@nntaleb OK, OK, Monday Permalink 2020-06-28 01:52:00+00:00

@nntaleb One of their olive oil suppliers told me it was the most reliable brand in America. In tests they were among the 4/~30 who did not cheat with their claims of extra virgin. Permalink 2020-06-27 23:35:47+00:00

@nntaleb The Mask Wearing BS Busting Probability Brigade has 1) Classico Tiramisu, and 2) White Tiramisu. In quantities! Permalink 2020-06-27 23:17:13+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot this is NOT what I am saying. Permalink 2020-06-27 20:53:34+00:00

@nntaleb All these “distances” are WRONG because of endogamy. I am redoing techniques for distance… See paper Permalink 2020-06-27 20:50:15+00:00

@nntaleb IQ follow up Trying to explain the difference between racism, homophily, and xenophobia in Principia Politica. The most destructively racists of all are IQ/evolutionary psychologists (often “centrists”) trying to put abilities in genetic boxes (the covert eugenist program). Permalink 2020-06-27 20:24:20+00:00

@nntaleb The most reliable! 100% of my cooking. Permalink 2020-06-27 19:05:04+00:00

@nntaleb Academics try to pass for scholars. Very very few are. Dentists, plumbers, grocers, or elephant trainers try to pass for dentists, plumbers, grocers, or elephant trainers, respectively. Almost all are. #Skininthegame Permalink 2020-06-27 18:51:32+00:00

@nntaleb Psychologists & pple who deal with IQ bullshit their way w/categories. I am 1- not lonely (exact opposite, fucking idiot) 2- hostile only to those who mess with me or my weaker friends. But then, verryyyyyyyy hostile 3- veryyyyy arrogant w/the arrogant. More than you think. Permalink 2020-06-27 18:25:53+00:00

@nntaleb Temperature in the center not edges. Permalink 2020-06-27 17:18:23+00:00

@nntaleb THanks Hugo. Problem solved! It foams every time. Permalink 2020-06-27 17:08:18+00:00

@nntaleb This map is fraud. Block the imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-27 13:18:03+00:00

@nntaleb Human accomplishment is gerrymandering: All are Meds not former Barbarians Permalink 2020-06-27 13:13:49+00:00

@nntaleb Stop the masquerade, your honor @JustinWelby “To pass for a Jew or a Nabatean [“Arabes”], a Roman had to pierce his ears or get circumcized, but to pass for a Gaul he needed to put chalk on his face…” [rephrased] Petronius, Satiricon It is Northern Europeans who were outsiders Permalink 2020-06-27 12:21:38+00:00

@nntaleb Yes many of these things are BS. Haplo are real. Permalink 2020-06-27 11:59:59+00:00

@nntaleb “Centrist” is also a nice formulation that gives cover to Eugenists — evolutionary psychogists and IQ classifiers trying to put not just people but populations into an IQ-based Apartheid. Permalink 2020-06-27 10:40:08+00:00

@nntaleb With all due respects, you honor @JustinWelby (Archbishop of Canterburry), stop producing racist BS. Permalink 2020-06-27 10:16:55+00:00

@nntaleb The Archbishop of Canterburry needs some fact checking: The Christ was not different from Greco-Romans. Permalink 2020-06-27 10:13:13+00:00

@nntaleb When people define themselves as “centrists”, it is often because they are afraid for their reputation. People with integrity define themselves as “it depends on the issue”. Permalink 2020-06-26 22:47:19+00:00

@nntaleb How do you say scapellamente a destra in Lebanese? Permalink 2020-06-26 22:14:02+00:00

@nntaleb Venice has its Sarcelles: Mestre. Permalink 2020-06-26 21:25:35+00:00

@nntaleb Unfair I lost 12 lbs! Permalink 2020-06-26 20:26:59+00:00

@nntaleb In cauda probatio Permalink 2020-06-26 20:12:56+00:00

@nntaleb DEBATE WITH IOANNIDIS It took me 20 years to clearly formulate the idea that distributional evidence IS the strongest evidence, above naive observational evidence. cc:@PrecPrinciple @RupertRead Permalink 2020-06-26 20:04:05+00:00

@nntaleb Maybe someone from Koura as we say “mwayy” for mayy, Ipwad for Ipad, etc. [Koura shift] Permalink 2020-06-26 19:55:08+00:00

@nntaleb Margarita ante porcos Permalink 2020-06-26 18:59:52+00:00

@nntaleb Using logic with an antagonist is like eating a bison steak with a tea spoon. Permalink 2020-06-26 17:47:07+00:00

@nntaleb Mar7aba Buthayné. Tlabté skolarship la #RWRI? Permalink 2020-06-26 16:50:28+00:00

@nntaleb When was the last time you were in Lebanon? Permalink 2020-06-26 16:48:57+00:00

@nntaleb BULLSHIT Permalink 2020-06-26 15:41:48+00:00

@nntaleb The fragmented & “failed” states in Italy during their mess, CORRUPTION, INSTABILITY, wars,produced: Michelangelo,Brunelleschi, Pico d Mirandola, Machiavelli, Da Vinci, Galileo, SP Basilica, Doges Palace, Sistine C,Palestrina, Monteverdi, Cimabue, Bocaggio, Petrarch… #Lebanon Permalink 2020-06-26 15:40:26+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot you don’t need a qualifier before posting something I said. Why are you hedging yourself? Permalink 2020-06-26 13:58:39+00:00

@nntaleb I mean what is to come. Permalink 2020-06-26 00:27:58+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. The standards of living are much better IF you have a steady income. Even the safety. It is just geopolitics… Permalink 2020-06-25 23:49:44+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed, more surprising. Permalink 2020-06-25 23:46:51+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked him because he is a bullshitter and I have some allergy. Here he proved to be an insensitive racist. Permalink 2020-06-25 23:12:59+00:00

@nntaleb The essence of #BLM is that African Americans are mistreated, & that imbecile Mark Manson trying to gerrymander with other origins is insulting (BTW the census classifies all Mediterraneans as white). This is vicious. It is about a community that continues to suffer. Permalink 2020-06-25 22:56:32+00:00

@nntaleb That sub-imbecile Mark Manson should not decide on people’s race and POC is an insulting designation. Permalink 2020-06-25 22:45:36+00:00

@nntaleb Starting in 8 minutes. Permalink 2020-06-25 21:22:38+00:00

@nntaleb It was it the Talmud אין הקדוש ברוך הוא מכה את ישראל אלא אם כן בורא להם רפואה תחילה Permalink 2020-06-25 19:11:53+00:00

@nntaleb הקדים רפואה למכה Permalink 2020-06-25 19:05:25+00:00

@nntaleb Fake news from Dwaihi Permalink 2020-06-25 19:04:14+00:00

@nntaleb @dailyjobs_lb Permalink 2020-06-25 18:58:23+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-25 18:44:11+00:00

@nntaleb The wise @davidboxenhorn once said: The Lord gives you the remedy first, then the disease Works permits frozen? No problemo: companies are now geared for remote work, can hire someone overseas & keep her/him in their parent’s basement #Indians, #Lebanese don’t need to emigrate Permalink 2020-06-25 18:40:43+00:00

@nntaleb My NY stove is different, a bit high. It is not foaming as well as the one down South. Too high a flame and it is black. Too low, same story. Solution, Maestro Ugo? Permalink 2020-06-25 18:20:32+00:00

@nntaleb The same NYT published crap abt why one should not react, even psycho-pathologized worriers. We got a lot of flack for our Jan 26 piece. Same w/2008 crisis: published a hit piece on me by that fraud Joe Nocera @opinion_joe then flipped & said we shd have see warning signs. Permalink 2020-06-25 17:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb He was never banned. I just gave him a hard time because of his name. Permalink 2020-06-25 15:14:29+00:00

@nntaleb You were amply discussed @alexandersquats @trishankkarthik @VergilDen Permalink 2020-06-25 14:54:35+00:00

@nntaleb مطعم Permalink 2020-06-25 14:54:06+00:00

@nntaleb The error: We NEVER play Russian Roulette with collective risks. Only with individual risks. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #ScaleTransformation Permalink 2020-06-25 14:35:58+00:00

@nntaleb Voila your answer Permalink 2020-06-25 14:01:35+00:00

@nntaleb New York [Meeting of the Mask Wearing BS Busting Probability Brigade, MW-BSBPB, formerly BSBPB] Permalink 2020-06-25 12:52:28+00:00

@nntaleb You are using a Brikka, not this. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:48:25+00:00

@nntaleb Found it. Replied. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:47:22+00:00

@nntaleb What are you using? Permalink 2020-06-25 12:43:03+00:00

@nntaleb I meant there was no email from you or any Cypriot national in my inbox. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:42:38+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t understand that COVID probabilities scale up because of contagion. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:08:29+00:00

@nntaleb No email Permalink 2020-06-25 11:35:54+00:00

@nntaleb I am not following the fight but I love fights! Permalink 2020-06-25 10:45:31+00:00

@nntaleb When I was a trader, “he’s a nice guy” meant “he’s an idiot”. Permalink 2020-06-24 22:06:00+00:00

@nntaleb You guys never heard me speak when I cross madfun. Automatically 100% kouroné, cursing 90% of the sentences. 7sen met my mother. Permalink 2020-06-24 22:04:54+00:00

@nntaleb Haybe bitballesh bi “mawta mawtek ya seyyed” Permalink 2020-06-24 21:56:59+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-24 21:51:22+00:00

@nntaleb In Amioun pple insult one another to be friendly, Bil m7abbé. You tell someone “y2abbrak mawték” or “yel3an abul khala2ak” a= “welcome”. Telling someone “we have better kebbe” is not an insult, but a sign of humorous respect. I wonder if it is common elsewhere. @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-06-24 21:42:55+00:00

@nntaleb And we are known to have the WORSE sense of humor of all the Levant. Permalink 2020-06-24 21:38:34+00:00

@nntaleb Amioun is better. Better olives, higher mountains, nicer accent, better kebbe. Permalink 2020-06-24 21:35:25+00:00

@nntaleb This fellow figured out what almost (perhaps all) psychologists of probability got wrong (why I call “superforecasters” a masquerade). Permalink 2020-06-24 21:32:53+00:00

@nntaleb Usurpation! Olives = Koura. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:59:30+00:00

@nntaleb Never called you a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:52:49+00:00

@nntaleb No need to respond to such stupidity. He did not get our idea. There are ONLY 72 pandemics >1000 people in recorded history. We are using conditional distribution. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:52:11+00:00

@nntaleb Something is hitting soon re:Armenia and migrations. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:45:43+00:00

@nntaleb They don’t do it for a living. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:45:03+00:00

@nntaleb There are other people I will not expose as bullshitters because I broke bread with them. With Tetlock (Phil the Rat🐁@PTetlock) I waited for him to violate certain golden rules of trust before exposing him. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:38:33+00:00

@nntaleb Fukuyama is a triple bullshitter. Graeber is not. I may not like his research but he is not a BS vendor. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:32:47+00:00

@nntaleb Can you use LateX ? Spreads faster on Twitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:29:13+00:00

@nntaleb I never call him a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:17:57+00:00

@nntaleb 22-26% proportion of blue/green eyes. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:17:33+00:00

@nntaleb Is there such a thing as an erasable tatoo? Permalink 2020-06-24 19:14:57+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, I am looking to find someone I’ve called a bullshitter who did not eventually turn out to be one. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:13:54+00:00

@nntaleb The rule is people who get tatoos can no longer translate the Incerto. No dispensation was given so far. Permalink 2020-06-24 18:56:13+00:00

@nntaleb My 2nd copy of your book is on the way Permalink 2020-06-24 18:08:33+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:48:35+00:00

@nntaleb Psychologist commenting on the IQ piece: “(…) but the correlation…” Me: “Define correlation” Psychologist: “…” (silence) Permalink 2020-06-24 15:26:46+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, he should not diss & pathologize IQ and heritability sceptics. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:22:51+00:00

@nntaleb Not about him but this “denialism” crap IS a cover for both racism & centralization. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:15:26+00:00

@nntaleb Les disputes avec Douady sont en français. Permalink 2020-06-24 14:11:30+00:00

@nntaleb Racism exists AND is promoted by these IQ fucks. No need to be soft on BOTH racism AND pseudoscience. Gabish? Permalink 2020-06-24 14:10:24+00:00

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-06-24 13:17:11+00:00

@nntaleb It is actually a function of correlation, no need for Gaussian to compute MI. Permalink 2020-06-24 13:13:45+00:00

@nntaleb I have the code. Will post in 2 h. Permalink 2020-06-24 13:12:32+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-24 12:50:32+00:00

@nntaleb The fundamental mistake is transitivity of correlation. Plus others of course. Permalink 2020-06-24 11:56:12+00:00

@nntaleb I am not condemning him, condemning the “IQ denial” stance. Permalink 2020-06-24 11:33:24+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-24 10:28:15+00:00

@nntaleb There is an economist who does the stuff, based at George Mason U. I engaged. Total idiot, can’t remember his name. Permalink 2020-06-24 10:07:10+00:00

@nntaleb This imbecile just showed how info on IQ is manufactured from left tail. IN SPITE OF CHERRYPICKED EXAMPLE +IQ self-correlate at .8: you have ~1 STD difference w/yourself. +Death ∆ betw top brackets=.2, obviously average has no impact. My point! Permalink 2020-06-24 10:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb Derida mon cher… Permalink 2020-06-23 23:41:14+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots Permalink 2020-06-23 21:20:27+00:00

@nntaleb My stance on IQ has NOTHING to do with my origins (which rightwing crackpots s.a.@kentaronline don’t know): country IQ is, as I said a fraud: it was NEVER measured (& if it were, you’d have some v. serious surprises). I keep getting these msgs since my IQ piece by RW crackpots Permalink 2020-06-23 20:55:09+00:00

@nntaleb Human nature cannot change. Our structures must. Permalink 2020-06-23 19:51:24+00:00

@nntaleb I managed to tell France Culture (French ratio) that (unlike their scientists), their intellectuals were BS operators (and have been at least since Julien Benda’s Trahison des Clercs, ~95 y ago). It is equivalent to insulting Catholicism standing in the Vatican in 1933. Permalink 2020-06-23 19:22:35+00:00

@nntaleb Higher level, my friend. Permalink 2020-06-23 18:27:53+00:00

@nntaleb Something is, but not captured by their metrics. Permalink 2020-06-23 18:20:51+00:00

@nntaleb Here is my IQ piece. Permalink 2020-06-23 16:23:00+00:00

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile, Plomin’s data OVERSTATES heritability. Your tabula rasa argument does not apply. Permalink 2020-06-23 16:08:38+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed IQ is sinister pseudoscience, so calling someone an “IQ denier” or “heritability denier” is insulting the entier process of science. Evolutionary Psychologists are frausters in a citation ring. Permalink 2020-06-23 15:44:56+00:00

@nntaleb Great! Thanks Permalink 2020-06-23 15:35:37+00:00

@nntaleb Gene he does not know about a certain computer scientist who lost his job in computer science while NOT writing about computer science. Permalink 2020-06-23 15:23:12+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-23 15:13:25+00:00

@nntaleb These programs principally support Fed employees (such as Daly) in their future job prospects on Wall Street which rewards people who comply thanks to the revolving door. Permalink 2020-06-23 14:06:17+00:00

@nntaleb New stove, in NY. Not working as well. Can we recap? 1) Should the flame be higher or lower? 2) Should I increase at the end? Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-23 14:04:31+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! The institution is not free. I am. Permalink 2020-06-23 14:02:44+00:00

@nntaleb He was not free before becoming famous. And he is the true exception. Permalink 2020-06-23 13:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, there is NO discipline that allows one to write freely even within the least political subjects. Permalink 2020-06-23 13:38:20+00:00

@nntaleb J’explique les choses en français (enfin j’essaye), 17 minutes de conversation. Permalink 2020-06-23 12:39:00+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Sorry. Permalink 2020-06-23 12:11:58+00:00

@nntaleb Explain to me why I shd give a fuck about how I “look” to you. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:47:55+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people for sophistry. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:44:35+00:00

@nntaleb ACADEMIC “FREEDOM” The illusion held for so long by academics that one can be both free & on a salary is finally crashing. Worse, something J-P Sartre figured out: you cannot be both free & attached to an institution. Any institution. A truck driver is freer than any academic. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:28:46+00:00

@nntaleb This is excellent. From you? Permalink 2020-06-23 03:34:37+00:00

@nntaleb Claire, by now you should realize that I have no more use for you, neither for the good nor for the bad. No use at all. Permalink 2020-06-23 02:02:35+00:00

@nntaleb OK redid with Imam Permalink 2020-06-23 01:38:28+00:00

@nntaleb Ponit enim personam amici cum induit iudicis [Cicero]” والله ما ترك لي الحق من صاحب” [Imam Ali] Permalink 2020-06-23 01:38:09+00:00

@nntaleb I mean the protocol Permalink 2020-06-23 01:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb How should I write it? Permalink 2020-06-23 01:33:57+00:00

@nntaleb Mtl l siyese l yunéné: “disown your friends when you reach office”. Permalink 2020-06-23 01:26:26+00:00

@nntaleb كيف بتترجما علغتنا؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 01:10:53+00:00

@nntaleb La2, ghayron. Permalink 2020-06-23 01:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb نهج البلاغة؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 00:56:20+00:00

@nntaleb The 2 of you are supposed to be fighting, as a good thing for #RWRI Permalink 2020-06-23 00:37:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Byzantine-Sassanite war of 602-620. We need @DrMichaelBonner to get its importance. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:36:49+00:00

@nntaleb وين هيدا؟ من النهج؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 00:33:23+00:00

@nntaleb They LIKE militarism Permalink 2020-06-23 00:27:13+00:00

@nntaleb Nothing yet. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:26:40+00:00

@nntaleb I never defended HCQ; my point was that the studies “debunking” were flawed and IN THE ABSENCE of further information, take what has the track recort of toxicity. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:25:54+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ So I am hated by Libertarians over masks/Silver Rule, Socialists for fractal Liberty, Democrats (US) for interventionism/paternalism, Republicans (US) for militarism, Both for corporatism, eugenists for IQ debunking, Arabist fascists for Mediterranean localism, by Statists… Permalink 2020-06-23 00:21:03+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-22 23:08:07+00:00

@nntaleb Hahahahahaha Permalink 2020-06-22 23:06:44+00:00

@nntaleb This is tooooooootal nonsense. It is dishonest to play race with such matters, and even more dishonest to lie about it. Caucasian (“white”) ≠ “European” as per EU membership. Permalink 2020-06-22 21:19:23+00:00

@nntaleb (BTW my experience is that Keto strips measure principally hydration, which causes a lot of noise. Useless.) Permalink 2020-06-22 20:23:55+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a yuuuuuuuuge war! Brought Zoroastrianism/Nestorianism to the Levant, later Maronitism/Shiism indirectly. Khosroe-van = Kesserwan in Lebanon Permalink 2020-06-22 19:34:19+00:00

@nntaleb Keto sticks measure water more than Keto! Permalink 2020-06-22 19:31:36+00:00

@nntaleb I took shortcuts. Permalink 2020-06-22 19:24:49+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, a Keto Question Humans keep ar. 2500 cal in “carbs” stored in muscles & liver. So does one enter ketosis by fasting 24h (assuming 2500 cal/day expenditure)? If so, shouldn’t one remain subsequently in ketosis regardless of food composition if <2500 consumed afterwards? Permalink 2020-06-22 19:23:58+00:00

@nntaleb No Sci Fi, never liked it. Except for HG Wells, of course. Permalink 2020-06-22 17:27:24+00:00

@nntaleb Separate floor Permalink 2020-06-22 17:20:54+00:00

@nntaleb After nearly 4 months, the emotion of being reunited with my (nontechnical) library. Permalink 2020-06-22 17:11:50+00:00

@nntaleb Which is why we need precise terms for that crap. Permalink 2020-06-22 16:58:38+00:00

@nntaleb The worst is: what to do when it comes from “white” people? Chromoclassification is a problem. Permalink 2020-06-22 16:50:46+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a HE; he changed his picture. Permalink 2020-06-22 14:17:30+00:00

@nntaleb I mean here is the technical Permalink 2020-06-22 12:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb And of course this came AFTER I debunked the sinister programs. 1) BS with IQ metrics 2) Less technical commentary Permalink 2020-06-22 12:51:53+00:00

@nntaleb It is not the defense of free expression but the COVER of free expression that I am pointing out. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:36:58+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. Arabs were themselves trying to NOT be Persianized. Baghdad was Persian speaking and Arabs brought more Arabic speakers, ironically the Mizrahi Jews, who were up to 50% of the population of Baghdad. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:15:18+00:00

@nntaleb MLK’s program was civil rights (which he NEVER hid) and of course requiring free speech. Others claim their program free speech but in fact theirs is a sinister Eugenics agenda. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:03:15+00:00

@nntaleb How about when you walk? Permalink 2020-06-22 02:04:45+00:00

@nntaleb Who she? Permalink 2020-06-21 21:14:17+00:00

@nntaleb Xenophobia, discrimination, etc. Permalink 2020-06-21 18:34:06+00:00

@nntaleb Not necessarily. You can hate a group precisely because you think they are successful –antisemitism Permalink 2020-06-21 18:08:16+00:00

@nntaleb In other words: “I don’t want your group around” is xenophobia. “Your group has inferior mental abilities” is something else. Permalink 2020-06-21 18:01:54+00:00

@nntaleb I separate the 2 in Principia Politica. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:56:06+00:00

@nntaleb One is xenophobia, one is the degradation in the human hierarchy. Not same. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:54:55+00:00

@nntaleb It is never really racism against the “prestige” group. But I agree some groups are losing the prestige status. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:43:01+00:00

@nntaleb How long you’ve used it? Permalink 2020-06-21 17:31:04+00:00

@nntaleb Another route from @SrinivasR1729’s : You can use the generating function of the inverse binomial coefficients and prove == Pi. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:21:51+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a HE. He just changed picture. Permalink 2020-06-21 14:36:23+00:00

@nntaleb As a matter of fact central states discouraged the use of masks for the first 3 months Permalink 2020-06-21 14:21:58+00:00

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t event get what “white means” and who’s in and out of it. Permalink 2020-06-21 14:12:19+00:00

@nntaleb Mazola is poison. Total poison. I spent 4 months without eating in restaurants. Only butter and olive oil. Never felt stronger (max lifts), lost 12 lbs. Permalink 2020-06-21 13:47:44+00:00

@nntaleb 1) I explain in #SkinintheGame scale transformations: Bitcoin is a good idea but almost all bitcoiners are total idiots, can’t get nuances beyond fortune cookies. 2) My idea is (fractal) State is needed ONLY for systemic tail risks, not messing w/daily life. Same as medicines. Permalink 2020-06-21 13:16:29+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not chauvinism: just to let you know that the “prestige” for Northern European is a recent phenomenon & that they have NOTHING to do with Greco-Roman civilization from which they claim descent. They have no claims to supremacy, so chill out and respect others. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:45:54+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of Nilotic civilizations plus Aethiopia. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:42:55+00:00

@nntaleb GS correlates does not determine scholarship. Peterson is a quack. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:25:39+00:00

@nntaleb Makes it worse: statism Permalink 2020-06-21 11:56:23+00:00

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it Permalink 2020-06-21 11:36:14+00:00

@nntaleb Charles Murray their lord is not a scholar. Not one of them is a scholar. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:30:14+00:00

@nntaleb Not one here is a scholar. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:29:16+00:00

@nntaleb The IQ story: not most, but ALL of these “researchers” and “statisticians” are statistically ignorant. These psychologists don’t even know what metrics s.a. correlation mean. Science is science. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:21:40+00:00

@nntaleb In 1900 the Aleppo region was richer than most places today in the EU. It was the wealthiest area of the Roman Empire (providing 4-5 emperors, 5 popes, etc.) All it took is the Baath centralized state to destroy it. They still don’t get it. Discussion in #Antifragile Permalink 2020-06-21 11:16:07+00:00

@nntaleb Almost ALL those who claim to be fighting for “free speech” are fighting to promote sinister racial ideas. That’s the case w/ IQ-race “research”, race “realism”, Quillette/ @charlesmurray/@clairlemon KKK’s David Duke has a “Free Speech Press” w/books on “Jewish Supremacism”. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:10:31+00:00

@nntaleb The problem is the alternative brings Cass Sunstein types back to the white house. Permalink 2020-06-21 01:27:46+00:00

@nntaleb It is one thing to have young leaderless protesters spreading viruses locally. But here the chief executive of the US is organizing the mother of all REDISTRIBUTION of germs across the country… And then they complain about the “economic costs” of “fighting” the pandemic. Permalink 2020-06-21 01:14:46+00:00

@nntaleb (That’s what people used to tell his parents. Some things don’t cross generations.) Permalink 2020-06-21 00:54:57+00:00

@nntaleb You still get comments like these. Do they think I will turn the other cheek? Permalink 2020-06-21 00:32:38+00:00

@nntaleb This is commonly known as a “superspreader event”. (Although perhaps 2-10% of people have masks) Permalink 2020-06-21 00:14:15+00:00

@nntaleb Destroyed by centralization Permalink 2020-06-20 23:40:00+00:00

@nntaleb Yes mostly from one obervation on the right. Permalink 2020-06-20 19:59:57+00:00

@nntaleb Code Permalink 2020-06-20 19:40:46+00:00

@nntaleb It is the histogram Permalink 2020-06-20 19:39:26+00:00

@nntaleb “If?” Permalink 2020-06-20 19:35:07+00:00

@nntaleb How UNCERTAINTY about the exponential growth rate translates into higher expected fatalities. Permalink 2020-06-20 19:30:08+00:00

@nntaleb Never trust someone who puts ethical in their titles. Permalink 2020-06-20 18:45:09+00:00

@nntaleb Never Lebanon. I met Zilkha who said: I was dispossessed in Egypt, Iraq, and Syria. Never Leb. Permalink 2020-06-20 17:23:02+00:00

@nntaleb Kll l bil 3arabé. Kamm wa7ad? Permalink 2020-06-20 17:00:22+00:00

@nntaleb COME PREVISTO In our papers, @DrCirillo and I have made sure our results are resistant to lies. We actually treated all historians as liars via bootstraps –yet no change for the tail exponents for wars and pandemics. Permalink 2020-06-20 16:57:49+00:00

@nntaleb Wassil 3 a NY Permalink 2020-06-20 16:50:02+00:00

@nntaleb Guess which one is an academic? Permalink 2020-06-20 16:41:59+00:00

@nntaleb Phi (Golden ratio). The proof is via tricks Permalink 2020-06-20 16:27:44+00:00

@nntaleb I had that idiot on mute. Berenson has the logical clarity of an oil spill. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:52:27+00:00

@nntaleb M, I have an idea for you. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:37:35+00:00

@nntaleb Meshia7o Permalink 2020-06-20 13:24:21+00:00

@nntaleb Wait 5 years. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:22:35+00:00

@nntaleb Be patient Pietro Permalink 2020-06-20 12:45:25+00:00

@nntaleb Being the judge. Permalink 2020-06-20 12:44:34+00:00

@nntaleb You must have the discipline to seek revenge and deliver punishment when you don’t really feel like it anymore; and do it purely out of a sense of duty, acting as a sentencing judge rather than a plaintif. Permalink 2020-06-20 02:23:44+00:00

@nntaleb Ahla bil tayfé ya Theodosius Permalink 2020-06-20 02:16:49+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-20 01:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb 4/n This is similar to aversion to plane crashes. A tiny risk of crash, orders of magnitude smaller than death from COVID, causes enough people to avoid flying in the 737 max to make it unprofitable. Governments follow. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:56:11+00:00

@nntaleb 3/n Pea-brained pseudo-libertarians (PBPL) attribute the loss of economic activity to the “lockdown” brought by “government”, not to the virus Few who are neither brain-dead nor PBPL wd voluntarily go expose themselves to viruses. Risk aversion is responsible for economic effects Permalink 2020-06-20 00:38:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2/n I am not saying 1) here is the authority of Hayek, or 2) Hayek was a “true” libertarian. I am just fed up with sociopaths with reduced brain functions citing Hayek to justify their crackpot theories about the pandemic. Period. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:32:03+00:00

@nntaleb HAYEK vs PSEUDOLIBERTARIANS For those invoking “libertarianism” in front of natural calamities, some news for you: Hayek explicitly gives a role to the “state”: protection against violence, epidemics, and natural disasters. Namely; TAIL RISKS. He understood uncertainty/tails. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:03:22+00:00

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-06-19 23:34:19+00:00

@nntaleb Isn’t that Monte Carlo with smart sampling? Permalink 2020-06-19 22:37:16+00:00

@nntaleb بأيا لغا؟ بلشامي؟ Permalink 2020-06-19 21:44:30+00:00

@nntaleb How about this? Permalink 2020-06-19 21:42:30+00:00

@nntaleb I do 3-5x, but @GrantSSC has a theory that 10x deadlift once in a while helps break out of plateaus. Permalink 2020-06-19 20:27:14+00:00

@nntaleb What’s the official SS dogma on gloves, @GrantSSC ? Permalink 2020-06-19 19:57:59+00:00

@nntaleb Weightlifting questions. Friends, how do you deal with hand calluses for high reps? The pain starts after 8 reps regardless of weight. + Chalk: no effect for high reps, helpful at low reps/high load. + Straps: using them= cheating as they prevent the wrist from getting stronger. Permalink 2020-06-19 19:47:00+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-19 19:37:04+00:00

@nntaleb In Aramaic! Permalink 2020-06-19 19:29:31+00:00

@nntaleb E nato ad Alessandria Permalink 2020-06-19 18:54:33+00:00

@nntaleb I did not make a big deal to protect him. But now things are different. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:51:43+00:00

@nntaleb Come Umberto E. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:48:09+00:00

@nntaleb Institutions evolve to be taken over by rent-seekers. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:40:12+00:00

@nntaleb Not “leftist”. Soviet. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:38:06+00:00

@nntaleb So “sectarianism” means nonBaathist. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:29:44+00:00

@nntaleb Antifragile = bottom up sectarianism that clashes with the centralized Baath program. It targets directly the Baath centralization in a chapter. The person in question is some type of Baathist-fascist, etc. Yet in charge of the philosophy dept. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:28:43+00:00

@nntaleb By Permalink 2020-06-19 18:20:02+00:00

@nntaleb AUB is the ONLY place on the planet, in 41 languages, where my work has been banned. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:14:41+00:00

@nntaleb An incident of the sort at NYU would cause a complete riot. The fact that they exploit labor AND deprive them of freedom is a serious problem. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:44:11+00:00

@nntaleb Wael, listen to Ma7mud, if you like AUB. They banned my book in the philosophy department –yes, banned. Tells you something about the culture of the institution. We will know more later; but first let help it survive. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:38:25+00:00

@nntaleb In CH they pay taxes mostly locally. Here we send the bulk to DC. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:17:44+00:00

@nntaleb These FUNDS are Federal from taxes they paid. Permalink 2020-06-19 16:42:32+00:00

@nntaleb Coercion of the smaller units & forcing them to conform to the central command is a Soviet thing. Counties, towns, individuals should be free to set their own rules. Permalink 2020-06-19 16:28:58+00:00

@nntaleb For a long time, until the early 20th C, Byzantines took the attitude “neither East nor West” or “both East or West”, or, even better “East and West are a construction outside our interests”. Permalink 2020-06-19 13:27:35+00:00

@nntaleb I read the passage when he was *riding* high (literally). Permalink 2020-06-19 13:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb The Byzantines were considered part of the East (in France, “les orientaux”). Same with Gibbon who was allergic to “Asian” mores and love of luxury . Example: Bertrand Russell’s History of Western Philosophy: Permalink 2020-06-19 12:31:28+00:00

@nntaleb The Roman army rule: action removes fear. Permalink 2020-06-19 12:13:13+00:00

@nntaleb Maria Mavroudi’s lecture For those not familiar w/her work: Byzantium got bad press during the enlightenment because 1)Christian, 2)Autocracy, 3)For Western Bleached Barbarian (WBB, my term) supremacism, “Rome”=German Holy R Empire Intellectual contributions dismissed by the WBB Permalink 2020-06-19 12:08:02+00:00

@nntaleb There are “Libertarians” (sociopaths looking for cover) and true Libertarians. Permalink 2020-06-19 11:18:11+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile, breathing multiplicative germs are not aggression? Permalink 2020-06-19 01:24:47+00:00

@nntaleb Better with the syrup. Permalink 2020-06-19 01:17:30+00:00

@nntaleb MASKS Libertarians are behaving like abused stepchildren with premature insomnia, bad school reports,& the moral clarity of house termites. It’s not because SOME states are requiring masks that they MUST be bad. States also ban murder. Should homicide be an assertion of freedom? Permalink 2020-06-19 01:16:08+00:00

@nntaleb They also banned murder. Imbecile! Permalink 2020-06-19 00:09:17+00:00

@nntaleb You have the understanding of a parrot overdosing on bad vodka. Get off Twitter. Nobody mentioned any government. This is called ethics. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-19 00:06:42+00:00

@nntaleb A7ikar preceded Aesop with his fables. Permalink 2020-06-18 23:22:51+00:00

@nntaleb A few years behind my tweet! Got to find it! Permalink 2020-06-18 23:18:00+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-06-18 22:30:04+00:00

@nntaleb Remember that by NOT wearing a mask you will contribute to someone else’s death AND will hurt the economy. Permalink 2020-06-18 22:05:28+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite; localism has worked best under some Imperial supervision (Roman empire, Hapsburgs, etc.) Permalink 2020-06-18 20:54:19+00:00

@nntaleb Is this in favor or against some adult supervision, say from the IMF (or something similar)? Permalink 2020-06-18 18:16:08+00:00

@nntaleb Koura? Permalink 2020-06-18 16:50:06+00:00

@nntaleb A sad feature of these campus events is that academics like @robinhanson, @hsu_steve or others, with the intellectual solidity of a bag of marshmallow marinated for weeks in Lebanese grape vinegar, are now free-speech victims rather than just nonsolid authors. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:44:31+00:00

@nntaleb 2) NOT SAYING the world has Fat Tails. That, we have known for a while. Saying TOOLS of analysis & THEORIES are INCOMPATIBLE w/Fat Tails. They become totally uninformative. Example: Building a portfolio on “correlation” and “St deviation” or making inf “regression” is BS. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:24:25+00:00

@nntaleb No I am saying the TOOLS of analysis are uninformative. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:21:03+00:00

@nntaleb The less polite abstract of my talk next Thursday: It is not 99% of modern finance that is practically, mathematically, & scientifically BS. It is 100%. The ENTIRE foundations are made for thin tails. From my next book. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:10:54+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo, not from Syriac Permalink 2020-06-18 13:08:42+00:00

@nntaleb The exception that confirm the rule: monopolistic situations and market shortages. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:52:15+00:00

@nntaleb Hard to understand why people are so blind to the difference between necessary and sufficient. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:43:22+00:00

@nntaleb To be free, you must be the customer. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:25:20+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get the paper, nor the NAP. Permalink 2020-06-18 11:29:24+00:00

@nntaleb Must be kelime, no? Permalink 2020-06-17 22:23:08+00:00

@nntaleb Unlikely Permalink 2020-06-17 20:48:37+00:00

@nntaleb Very, very unlikely. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:41:03+00:00

@nntaleb That’s babylonian @EdmondShami Permalink 2020-06-17 20:27:40+00:00

@nntaleb OK OK Found the root for kalam كلام To teach, lecture. Stange coincidence with pen Permalink 2020-06-17 20:26:43+00:00

@nntaleb It is pronounced “yuuuge” but written “huuuge”. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:19:26+00:00

@nntaleb كلام قلم 2 different roots. one is “word” the other is kalamos. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:18:54+00:00

@nntaleb Not for kalaam. it is a kaf ك not ق Permalink 2020-06-17 20:09:45+00:00

@nntaleb Made same mistake. قلم comes from kalamos. Kalaam (with a k) not sure.Will look. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:07:35+00:00

@nntaleb Strangly, daftar (notebook) comes from deftero in Greek. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:06:05+00:00

@nntaleb Great book Permalink 2020-06-17 17:15:05+00:00

@nntaleb “Predictions are self-fulling or self canceling” You can’t judge forecasts that lead to action because of the forecast (say caution). Can’t believe these IYS not seeing it. Permalink 2020-06-17 17:03:28+00:00

@nntaleb UBERSTATISTICIAN ANDREW GELMAN: (Some) forecasting for COVID-19 has failed: a discussion of Taleb and Ioannidis et al. « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science Permalink 2020-06-17 16:08:51+00:00

@nntaleb C’e un’espressione italiana vicino al l’antico proverbio greco: “Consiglio di vecchio e aiuto di giovane” Permalink 2020-06-17 14:11:38+00:00

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-06-17 14:02:01+00:00

@nntaleb No need for theorem. Absence of mean is absence of mean. Permalink 2020-06-17 14:00:54+00:00

@nntaleb Modern Greek (attempt) Δύναμη από νέους Συμβουλές από ηλικιωμένους Permalink 2020-06-17 13:45:11+00:00

@nntaleb Strength from the young Advice from the old Permalink 2020-06-17 13:44:22+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-17 13:26:15+00:00

@nntaleb Νεοις μεν εργα, βουλας δε γεραιτεροις [Corpus paroemiographorum graecorum] Permalink 2020-06-17 13:21:02+00:00

@nntaleb ΝΕΟΙΣ ΜΕΝ ΕΡΓΑ , ΒΟΥΛΑΣ ΔΕ ΓΕΡΑΙΤΕΡΟΙΣ Permalink 2020-06-17 13:19:44+00:00

@nntaleb No branch of traditional conservatism includes creeps like @AnnCoulter. Must be a new reverse-Burkean one. Permalink 2020-06-17 12:07:29+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, it requires a huuuge amount of heroism, physical courage, moral compass, gratitude, Christian values, and not least, classical virtues, to betray intergenerational commitments, sacrifice the weakest, and commit geronticide [that is, the genocide of the elderly]. Permalink 2020-06-17 11:04:59+00:00

@nntaleb Greatest historical irony. Permalink 2020-06-17 02:05:37+00:00

@nntaleb Dear Raj, I am sorry for your loss. Permalink 2020-06-17 00:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-17 00:12:06+00:00

@nntaleb To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 2020-06-16 22:19:47+00:00

@nntaleb I used wisdom for nature. Permalink 2020-06-16 22:02:37+00:00

@nntaleb Another lesson: opportunity cost requires a handle on the first moment. How can someone be so clueless, Mr PhD? Permalink 2020-06-16 21:22:30+00:00

@nntaleb How does selection bias and EVT connect to opportunity cost? Permalink 2020-06-16 21:19:41+00:00

@nntaleb Ortmann Permalink 2020-06-16 20:26:49+00:00

@nntaleb Orgman, Phd, explain to us how to do extreme value analysis without extreme values. Permalink 2020-06-16 20:24:06+00:00

@nntaleb I used “Nature” Permalink 2020-06-16 20:14:36+00:00

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 2020-06-16 20:08:40+00:00

@nntaleb You can’t teach pigs to fly, Bert. Permalink 2020-06-16 19:57:13+00:00

@nntaleb It is not Ioannides but this economist did not catch it. Permalink 2020-06-16 19:25:53+00:00

@nntaleb One needs to be really, really, really ignorant about statistics (plus an economist) to buy that the entire set of tail events is “selection bias” (this is the standard EVT approach and REMOVING would be selection bias) @DrCirillo Permalink 2020-06-16 19:16:41+00:00

@nntaleb Odds it came from a jar. No squid with it? Permalink 2020-06-16 18:49:05+00:00

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-06-16 18:31:23+00:00

@nntaleb I was in Palermo EXACTLY a year ago. Naples is more intense. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:30:23+00:00

@nntaleb Palermo is too Phoenician. Taormina is the Greek side. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:22:36+00:00

@nntaleb We only hear about “imperfect” crimes. “Perfect crimes” will never be discovered –by definition. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo! Permalink 2020-06-16 16:14:11+00:00

@nntaleb I DO address his points, Nir. Permalink 2020-06-16 16:05:26+00:00

@nntaleb DEBATE W IOANNIDIS Some asked to discuss @PTetlock’s forecasting. I answered Ioannidis because I think he is wrong. Unlike Ioannidis, Phil the rat🐁 Tetlock is *not even* wrong. He is a despicable BS Vendor who misrepresents the “collaboration” w/me. Permalink 2020-06-16 15:40:01+00:00

@nntaleb No, Oliver. You don’t block people for not understanding something. We all make mistakes all the time. You block people for intellectual dishonesty, which is very, very, very different. cc:@bmiloy Permalink 2020-06-16 15:28:57+00:00

@nntaleb I am careful about propaganda. Both sides in the conflict BS you. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:56:58+00:00

@nntaleb That’s a local authority. Very different. And compatible with subsidiarity. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:55:45+00:00

@nntaleb You do not seem to realize what’s going on. There is no “movement” but there is an organization, #RWRI whch is nothing bt continuous fights betw. instructors openly disagreeing (2 of whom mut blocked on Twitter), not counting when @Jaffer22915438 comes in to harass us. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:13:57+00:00

@nntaleb If via negative were universal it would be via positiva, no? Permalink 2020-06-16 13:48:16+00:00

@nntaleb What’s wrong with an autonomous zone? Permalink 2020-06-16 13:40:04+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Both taking OR rejecting lumps from a “movement” are unrigorous. My only request is to avoid falling in the exact opposite trap, namely the genetic fallacy that if it is associated with X then it MUST be wrong. Some things are wrong with Complexity. Permalink 2020-06-16 13:33:17+00:00

@nntaleb The only award is time. The very notion of award goes against the collective iterative process called science. Permalink 2020-06-16 13:15:03+00:00

@nntaleb 3a 2bel l alf Permalink 2020-06-16 13:10:34+00:00

@nntaleb So @hvairinhos unless you answer the above questions in a rational and responsible way, sorry but you will be blocked. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:54:21+00:00

@nntaleb PS- I blocked your friend Benoux NOT for disagreeing but for DISTORTING what I and some other people were saying. (For instance nobody is against “specialists”, only untested macroBS citation rings with aggregate variables that are fat tailed.) Never tolerate dishonesty. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:43:59+00:00

@nntaleb And you think it is the government that is the cause of that or people’s reactions? Permalink 2020-06-16 12:35:39+00:00

@nntaleb Yes. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:13:26+00:00

@nntaleb Finally, the ideas in the Incerto are about handling uncertainty at the individual and systemic level. They are not about LOCALISM but incl a footnote on how things behave differently at different SCALES. Realize the Prec. Principle is PRECISELY for when localism fails. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:04:39+00:00

@nntaleb 1- Population was much much smaller than today (still small) 2- Gov was small, represented at the time <10% of GDP Permalink 2020-06-16 11:57:28+00:00

@nntaleb The homunculus theory prevailed for a long time by people who wanted human to have a centralized brain. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:43:52+00:00

@nntaleb The other problem is that WE humans are fragile by design and rely on reproduction/evolution for guidance under uncertainty. WE individuals are not a society. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:24:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes that’s my point: subsidiarity. Bottom up does not mean everything is at the bottom. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:22:52+00:00

@nntaleb Saying “a lot of things are centralized” means there is no single command/control center. The point is that there is no central genetic code interpretation. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:22:02+00:00

@nntaleb An ant colony is a case in point: there is NO command and control function. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:16:51+00:00

@nntaleb + Nothing in your body is centralized. + Localism means subsidiarity NOT breaking apart everything into small pieces. Please answer if you disagree. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:16:00+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-06-16 11:14:14+00:00

@nntaleb Do you agree with the following? + Centralization DOES produce fat tails. + Circuit breakers DO stabilize systems. + Nothing in natural systems is centralized. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:12:24+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, someone communicating with HIS investors is not MARKETING. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:01:09+00:00

@nntaleb The idiot thinks that it is the funds not the journalists that write the headlines, a theory promoted by the uber-charlatan Lopez de Prado. Permalink 2020-06-16 10:57:30+00:00

@nntaleb No, it is only moral anachronism if it did THEN conflict with the moral of its day. Permalink 2020-06-16 10:47:37+00:00

@nntaleb This is unrigorous, nonsense Permalink 2020-06-16 02:32:04+00:00

@nntaleb Fed up w/lumping of beliefs: If you hate deficits, you must hate masks If you like bitcoin, COVID’s fatality rate must be low If you hate taxes, HQC has potential but geronticide is OK If IQ testing is a fraud, then moral anachronism/removing statues I am fed up w all of you. Permalink 2020-06-16 02:28:03+00:00

@nntaleb I had frothy coffee Permalink 2020-06-16 01:23:02+00:00

@nntaleb Ma preference etait pour l’immortalité. Mais bon… Permalink 2020-06-15 21:45:46+00:00

@nntaleb 3attari2 Permalink 2020-06-15 21:41:35+00:00

@nntaleb It took 5 weeks to get here from France… The complete works (The Czech was translated by Kundera). Now the question: where to start. Most of Kundera’s books are hypnotic. This is literature. Permalink 2020-06-15 21:40:42+00:00

@nntaleb No, bullshitter. And you claim to be an academic? Permalink 2020-06-15 18:31:09+00:00

@nntaleb Isn’t this called socialism? Permalink 2020-06-15 18:04:47+00:00

@nntaleb They were tests. Permalink 2020-06-15 16:33:43+00:00

@nntaleb “Show me the man and I will find you the crime”. When you have potential enemies, AND you are not free (like Carlos Ghosn), be paranoid. Permalink 2020-06-15 14:52:26+00:00

@nntaleb Tarjamé 3al tari2 Permalink 2020-06-15 14:41:50+00:00

@nntaleb The other problem people don’t get is that acting EARLY saves $$$and the economy. We proved it Jan 26. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:56:25+00:00

@nntaleb You seem to believe that the disease does not carry economic costs. This is a false dichotomy. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:32:49+00:00

@nntaleb People who apologize publicly are not sorry for having done something wrong. They are mostly sorry for having being caught. Never apologize publicly. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:26:04+00:00

@nntaleb This is not a good analogy. Sweden had not much difference in economic costs from Norway, with 11 times deaths per capita. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:15:32+00:00

@nntaleb A remarkable elegance of reasoning and expression, particularly in his summary: “La ta7dif bi ma la ta3rif” Basically, don’t be fooled by randomness. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:05:02+00:00

@nntaleb You are conflating costs of the pandemic AND costs of dealing with the pandemic. It is the pandemic that has economics costs! Permalink 2020-06-15 12:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb This is even more interesting: he who finds a coincidence: “kalam bghayr 3ilm” Permalink 2020-06-15 12:43:48+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Interesting :القَبَس: الشُّعْلة من النار. => derive strength from. Permalink 2020-06-15 12:34:39+00:00

@nntaleb How can someone be as clueless as you yet operate as postdoc? Do they have some type of reading comprehension tests? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:19:59+00:00

@nntaleb And would you translate the Hadith: “saving one’s people from astrology is saving them from sorcery”? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:18:16+00:00

@nntaleb Kazzibu is “distrust” or trear like a liar, no? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:11:21+00:00

@nntaleb Leggere e molto facile. Parlare e facile, ma non troppo. Scrivere bene (con precisione) e troppo difficile. Permalink 2020-06-15 11:54:20+00:00

@nntaleb Yes it is not Hadith (hence (~) above) but a potent aphorism that effectively translates the accepted Hadith (below it). “Predictions are false even when true” “Predictions are either coincidental or false” كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا كذب المنجمون ولو صدفوا Permalink 2020-06-15 11:46:21+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked this incoherent sub-imbecile SignorErnesto. It is like talking to a drunk parrot. Permalink 2020-06-15 11:35:55+00:00

@nntaleb Imparare dai migliori Permalink 2020-06-15 11:01:53+00:00

@nntaleb Mai troppo! Permalink 2020-06-15 10:59:19+00:00

@nntaleb la prima tazza del giorno. Permalink 2020-06-15 10:48:11+00:00

@nntaleb He summarizes the discussion Permalink 2020-06-15 10:26:17+00:00

@nntaleb Exactly. It’s a citation ring. Permalink 2020-06-15 01:31:40+00:00

@nntaleb Blocked him Sweden had yuuuge self-quarantines yet has 11 times the death rate of Norway. Nothing to do with tails. Permalink 2020-06-15 01:31:10+00:00

@nntaleb I was diplomatic! Permalink 2020-06-15 01:19:27+00:00

@nntaleb A more usual form would be: أريد أن أراه بعيني Permalink 2020-06-15 00:28:08+00:00

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots are locked in a permanent state, i.e. remain “evidence based” idiots no matter what events bring, or what reasoning is supplied to them. Working with @yaneerbaryam on the “evidence based” BS. cc:@BallouxFrancois Permalink 2020-06-15 00:19:53+00:00

@nntaleb Smells of Google Translate. You should make some mistakes, cher ami. Permalink 2020-06-15 00:07:25+00:00

@nntaleb Arabic 2 different meanings مسخره مسحره One means a joke, the other means related to magic. Permalink 2020-06-14 23:40:52+00:00

@nntaleb William, time to block the idiot. I had him on mute. Permalink 2020-06-14 23:24:08+00:00

@nntaleb NonGabish Did you need astrological clearance from the Sanhedrin for the RSHOT? Permalink 2020-06-14 21:49:39+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, it has been attributed to many many people including the infamous Fouché. Permalink 2020-06-14 21:06:09+00:00

@nntaleb It is universally accepted that the Hadith is: من اقتبس شعبة من النجوم فقد اقتبس شعبة من السحر زاد ما زاد which conveys the same meaning. Permalink 2020-06-14 20:47:17+00:00

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-06-14 20:33:17+00:00

@nntaleb The Bible Code redux Permalink 2020-06-14 20:29:27+00:00

@nntaleb Yes it is contested hence the (~). But the hadith version below is the correct one. Permalink 2020-06-14 20:19:26+00:00

@nntaleb THEOLOGICAL QUESTION Looking for TALMUDIC version: Waged a war on forecasting (vs building things error proof/convex, not #Fragile) There is a (~) Hadith كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا* (distrust astrologers even when correct) *من اقتبس شعبة من النجوم فقد اقتبس شعبة من السحر زاد ما زاد Permalink 2020-06-14 20:12:54+00:00

@nntaleb For those who don’t get why I used “Masquerade”: it comes from “mask”. Permalink 2020-06-14 19:59:50+00:00

@nntaleb Si, erre moscia. Permalink 2020-06-14 19:25:15+00:00

@nntaleb On single point forecasts for fat tailed variables [Debate with Ioannidis] Permalink 2020-06-14 19:23:07+00:00

@nntaleb Yes in Milan they have the “ladgha” Permalink 2020-06-14 19:22:34+00:00

@nntaleb The accent is iiiiiiiiiiiitalian as hell. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:55:58+00:00

@nntaleb Yes but sloooooooooooooow convergence Permalink 2020-06-14 17:52:54+00:00

@nntaleb Will contact you once I get there and I get my shipment. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:51:31+00:00

@nntaleb “Impossible n’est pas francais” (translation: impossible is not a word) Permalink 2020-06-14 17:09:22+00:00

@nntaleb Greek included Rum like me from the Millet classification. Many were Rums. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:08:28+00:00

@nntaleb I will be in NY next week. Come get your copy. Where are you? Permalink 2020-06-14 17:07:03+00:00

@nntaleb Toi aussi tu parles francais? Permalink 2020-06-14 17:04:27+00:00

@nntaleb Donc pas d’ancetres Mendes? Permalink 2020-06-14 16:59:35+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I went to my textbook and was relieved to see I was careful to define convexity and what I used here as “convexity argument” i.e. benefits from dispersion. Some people call that “Jensen gap”. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:50:14+00:00

@nntaleb Tu parles francais, Ugo? Permalink 2020-06-14 16:45:01+00:00

@nntaleb Just hit my own record too. Caffe pomeridiano, con un bicchiere di aqua fredda e un po di cioccolato nero amaro. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:41:06+00:00

@nntaleb The debate with Ioannidis has just started. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:22:15+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile you didn’t get it. Permalink 2020-06-14 15:03:18+00:00

@nntaleb Please do not be offended but I block people for idiotic comments. I am really sorry. Permalink 2020-06-14 14:01:05+00:00

@nntaleb Not as good as yesterday but still good! Trick: use the spoon to nudge the valve! Permalink 2020-06-14 13:55:53+00:00

@nntaleb You bet Permalink 2020-06-14 13:16:23+00:00

@nntaleb With oil prices under $45, people in the Levant start to self-identify as Eastern Mediterraneans. With oil prices below $22, they self-identifiy as Mediterraneans. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:44:07+00:00

@nntaleb I wear masks inside and visors outside in parks and ventilated areas. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:39:45+00:00

@nntaleb Actually it is even < than p^2 because the conditional p for the noninfected person is even lower. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:34:54+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an idiot. Drinking alcohol brings no systemic risk. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:31:21+00:00

@nntaleb I just published The Masks Masquerade Permalink 2020-06-14 12:18:27+00:00

@nntaleb Je ne comprend pas. Permalink 2020-06-14 10:19:51+00:00

@nntaleb It is late in Napoli! Permalink 2020-06-14 00:46:36+00:00

@nntaleb We can create a symposium on life expectancy that is memoriless where death are 100% due to accident/malfunctioning not senility. This seems to be close to the case with sharks/turtles. 400y or 120 y is not too different. Permalink 2020-06-14 00:12:01+00:00

@nntaleb Exists neither in the North nor in Beirut nor in Kesserwan. Nor on TV. Nor in Northern Syria. So must be in some area I have never visited. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:36:31+00:00

@nntaleb Never heard these. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:29:02+00:00

@nntaleb OK, replace for now with “gains from dispersion” or “gains from JE”, and see if that so-called “abuse of language” makes sense. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:28:18+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks. This is just starting. There is a bit to come. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:14:15+00:00

@nntaleb Again, fuzzy definitions. For some, regular variation class. For others anything subexponential. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:46:50+00:00

@nntaleb To discuss in Napoli. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:42:01+00:00

@nntaleb Finance; whatever benefits from jensen’s inequality. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:36:45+00:00

@nntaleb I see we are using different lingo. For me,”convex” is long dispersion. For you it is the shape of the function with respect to a parameter in an optimization thingy. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:29:33+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I am conditioning on the left side (minimum increment) =1. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:20:11+00:00

@nntaleb Variance is diff from mean, so minimal when equally spaced, no? Permalink 2020-06-13 19:58:16+00:00

@nntaleb Variance. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:44:37+00:00

@nntaleb Dear @mcs1870 is the convexity idea clear? Variance increases when you have dispersion, and minimal when equally spaced. When you think like option traders, you view everything in terms of convexity. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:36:40+00:00

@nntaleb Hormesis is a special case. A convex payoff is antifragile but not hormetic. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:28:38+00:00

@nntaleb Voila @joe_shipman Permalink 2020-06-13 18:54:50+00:00

@nntaleb How I explain it Permalink 2020-06-13 18:53:46+00:00

@nntaleb Ciao Carlo. Shipman @joe_shipman and @m_j_wiener solved it very simply showing that the minimum of the ratio lhs/rhs is reached for equal gaps. I will post when I come back, both simple and more complicated routes. Permalink 2020-06-13 18:26:22+00:00

@nntaleb Ho visto il film ieri. Molto divertente. Permalink 2020-06-13 17:15:14+00:00

@nntaleb (typo, was square). We can actually end up with tighter bounds. Permalink 2020-06-13 15:29:34+00:00

@nntaleb Oui! Permalink 2020-06-13 15:28:58+00:00

@nntaleb I agree. But you need to link/show the min is reached when separation is minimum on rhs, and max of min on lfs. Permalink 2020-06-13 15:16:03+00:00

@nntaleb Hint: we have the maximum of the minimum distance between points in relation to the variance. Other hint. Best route: use convexity of the right hand side. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:52:51+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-13 14:49:28+00:00

@nntaleb He is. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:10:26+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:08:14+00:00

@nntaleb There is a chance this may be entertaining. [Note: I apologize but authors of non-math related comments will be blocked.] Permalink 2020-06-13 13:56:35+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a type I process (variations are from Mediocristan). To use it to justify direct genetic modification is clueless. Permalink 2020-06-13 13:43:31+00:00

@nntaleb Hence the Homsi joke: “Iza 7zeret kam fi 7abbé bi Idé b3tik yéhon tnaynaton”. Permalink 2020-06-13 12:51:28+00:00

@nntaleb Beiruti uses idein, never dayyet. Must be a mountain thing (common in Zahlé) Permalink 2020-06-13 12:49:08+00:00

@nntaleb OK, looking at things that are > dual: Byout, wled, 3arabiyyet, as7ab, etc. are always plural (byoutak, wledak…) regardless if n=2 or >2 Permalink 2020-06-13 12:45:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Wonder about Safaitic (@Safaitic) cc:@HsenAndil @PhDniX Permalink 2020-06-13 12:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Plural (baydat) Permalink 2020-06-13 12:40:27+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY PUZZLE DUJOUR Hebrew, Phoenician, Akkadian,& Arabic have dual, not Aramaic-Syriac Hebr/Phncian focus on body parts (2 eyes, legs, etc.), dual atrophies elsewhere, but Lebanese has dual ONLY OUTSIDE body parts: Ideik, 3yunak, shféfék, ejreik are pl. Friends, any idea? Permalink 2020-06-13 12:32:13+00:00

@nntaleb These languages (like Akkadian and Heb) focus on body parts, and have tended to atrophy outside. Ironically we only use it outside body parts: 3yunik not 3ayntaynik, shféfék, not shftaynik, ejreik not ejrtaynak. Worth a PHILO PUZZLE du jour Permalink 2020-06-13 12:17:05+00:00

@nntaleb The Lebanese don’t often use dual: ideik, ejreik, etc. are plural not dual. “irfa3 yadaik => shil idék”. Permalink 2020-06-13 12:06:37+00:00

@nntaleb I would settle for squid ink Permalink 2020-06-13 12:02:25+00:00

@nntaleb Actually in Heb Egypt is Mitzraim, meaning “the two Misr”, because they have 2 kingdoms. Phoenician had dual. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb Today is a good day. Un buon auspicio. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:25:33+00:00

@nntaleb Because you are private I cannot retweet. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:05:45+00:00

@nntaleb 1 month with 2 days STD Permalink 2020-06-13 07:44:39+00:00

@nntaleb You are good. Very good. Permalink 2020-06-13 01:21:21+00:00

@nntaleb Hihi. Only 1 length. Ciao. Permalink 2020-06-13 01:17:39+00:00

@nntaleb Grazie! Permalink 2020-06-12 22:05:00+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I want to formalize! Permalink 2020-06-12 17:56:35+00:00

@nntaleb Masks change the ranking Permalink 2020-06-12 17:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb My first answer when a someone (particularly a journalist) tries to play rhetorical tricks/compound questions around a statistical/technical point they do not understand is: IGNORE. When they keep going, my second answer: Permalink 2020-06-12 17:27:58+00:00

@nntaleb #localism Permalink 2020-06-12 16:37:44+00:00

@nntaleb Facile: le plus elegant, digne, et bien dans sa peau. Permalink 2020-06-12 16:30:29+00:00

@nntaleb Je cherche mon arriere grand-pere. Permalink 2020-06-12 15:33:56+00:00

@nntaleb Superdeadlifts! Permalink 2020-06-12 15:08:33+00:00

@nntaleb straps? Permalink 2020-06-12 15:06:50+00:00

@nntaleb Hitchens, fuckoff. Permalink 2020-06-12 14:57:52+00:00

@nntaleb Chebychev’s inequality: for all r.v. with finite second moment: P(X> a)< V[x]/a^2 Permalink 2020-06-12 14:23:11+00:00

@nntaleb Relax: he’s not apparently a shill, just a troll I blocked. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:59:48+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-12 13:50:46+00:00

@nntaleb This fellow is getting it. My paper is unpublished and the exact result is absent from the literature. But social media is verifying my central result. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:49:21+00:00

@nntaleb This is a FIRST ROUND. Both Ioannidis and myself wrote blind comments. I will know what he wrote along with the rest of the world. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:38:44+00:00

@nntaleb You will find out. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:34:09+00:00

@nntaleb The scientific debate with John Ioannidis will be posted this weekend. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:32:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2) As a general rule: entropy based methods are much more adapted to information *by design*. Unlike with correlation & other BS, what you see with your naked eye will map to the metric! PS- Most geneticists use metrics they have NO clue about. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:33:32+00:00

@nntaleb PCA maps distort genetic distance betw populations: they separate Greeks from Turks (magnifying endogamy) & are exploited politically by rightwing nuts & EuroSupremacists Yet it’s IMPOSSIBLE to figure out Greek from W Turk w/the naked eye Our correction: shows them much closer Permalink 2020-06-12 12:27:37+00:00

@nntaleb Bureaucrats can’t get it in their head that masks & constraining superspreader locations are a much much cheaper, less disruptive, & more effective way to solve the problem. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:06:01+00:00

@nntaleb Bi Amioun, Feta mush 7allumé ma3 l battikh. Byez3alo l 3alam. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:01:56+00:00

@nntaleb Came FROM the book. FU money was not common before, only on Wall St. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:59:37+00:00

@nntaleb I am Byzantine. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:55:33+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t want to give out all your secrets! Permalink 2020-06-12 11:34:33+00:00

@nntaleb My 5 max rep drops after 2 months of cessation, but not the 1 max. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:27:44+00:00

@nntaleb La Llave Permalink 2020-06-12 11:20:41+00:00

@nntaleb You mean having a resentful halfwit accusing you of cherrypicking? Permalink 2020-06-12 11:18:52+00:00

@nntaleb Oggi Questa matina Permalink 2020-06-12 11:02:48+00:00

@nntaleb Why this drop in DL? Permalink 2020-06-12 02:04:19+00:00

@nntaleb Troppo intelettuale, no? Permalink 2020-06-12 00:47:27+00:00

@nntaleb F u money does not exist. Most people turn money obsessed once they have it. Permalink 2020-06-12 00:45:08+00:00

@nntaleb A non-intellecktshual movie in Italian Permalink 2020-06-12 00:30:12+00:00

@nntaleb Amici, sto cercando un altro film italiano divertente (per migliorare il mio italiano). Voglio qualcosa di divertente, non intellettuale. Permalink 2020-06-11 23:33:28+00:00

@nntaleb This is really 0, below 10^-6. Works for Gaussian. I ran billions for Fat Tails and did numerical integration. Permalink 2020-06-11 23:27:24+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-11 22:32:07+00:00

@nntaleb G, ask Ugo Permalink 2020-06-11 19:41:28+00:00

@nntaleb Final! Thanks for the help. Never use single point estimates for pandemics. [On fortune cookie science] Permalink 2020-06-11 19:34:25+00:00

@nntaleb Arabs had huge respect for the Rum (Greco-Romans, Romaics), solid but mild respect for the Fars (Pars Persians), denigration for the “Franj” and people to the South of them. Permalink 2020-06-11 18:32:48+00:00

@nntaleb Ana 12 lb. La7 yfta7 Spadaro Permalink 2020-06-11 18:26:20+00:00

@nntaleb The comparison is between thintails & fattails Permalink 2020-06-11 17:55:02+00:00

@nntaleb TRUE WEALTH Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Muscle strength Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Good digestive functions No meeting rooms Periodic surprises Foamy coffee Crusty bread Ability to nap Access to a hammock Permalink 2020-06-11 17:50:23+00:00

@nntaleb This is common in both Arabic & Latin literature. Permalink 2020-06-11 17:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb Possible but only for some parameters. Permalink 2020-06-11 16:59:08+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an idiot Permalink 2020-06-11 16:54:15+00:00

@nntaleb “White” is not a genetic designation so much as it is about rank, power & connects to purity: white + somethingelse = somethingelse. Never chromocategorize. Permalink 2020-06-11 16:06:49+00:00

@nntaleb The World Through a Magnifying Glass: The High-Pass Filter Hypothesis for Autism Spectrum Disorders Permalink 2020-06-11 15:54:55+00:00

@nntaleb The one on context Permalink 2020-06-11 15:51:40+00:00

@nntaleb Just bought your book Permalink 2020-06-11 15:41:44+00:00

@nntaleb Getting better at it Permalink 2020-06-11 14:49:11+00:00

@nntaleb Never use single point estimates for pandemics. [On fortune cookie science] (Corrected) Permalink 2020-06-11 14:47:02+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, please comment/help find mistakes Never use single point estimates for pandemics. Permalink 2020-06-11 14:33:22+00:00

@nntaleb Tutti. 8 ½, Satiricon, Roma, Amarcord… Permalink 2020-06-11 10:23:29+00:00

@nntaleb Steroids Permalink 2020-06-11 01:51:45+00:00

@nntaleb Glad someone figured out all the tricks from the book. Permalink 2020-06-10 22:32:47+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-10 21:59:35+00:00

@nntaleb He turned 65 Permalink 2020-06-10 21:57:04+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks @zeynep for fighting for masks.👆 Permalink 2020-06-10 20:35:10+00:00

@nntaleb Solo in italiano Permalink 2020-06-10 18:19:32+00:00

@nntaleb LETTERATURA “DEL GIORNO” – Perché non scrivi più libri? – Sono uscito troppo spesso la sera. Roma ti fa perdere molto tempo. [La ragione per cui io vivo in periferia o in campagna] Permalink 2020-06-10 17:37:01+00:00

@nntaleb This said, we NEED to work on a local language stripped of Nahda influences, and reestablish our deep Mediterranean culture –we are the most Easterners of the West, the most Westerners of the East. But let’s stay scholarly in the invocation of historical facts. Permalink 2020-06-10 17:12:31+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, incorrect. The widespread use of Arabic fus7a in place of local dialects came with that “nahda” and the Maronite church was part of the process. 2: Syriac theology was introdiced by anti-Greek Nestorians during the Sassanian invasion. Fact: it is E. Aramaic not W. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:44:26+00:00

@nntaleb We learned from you. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:22:27+00:00

@nntaleb Not the point. Without scholarship, rigor & critical mind one cannot have a historical discussion. Once a person violates that they cease to exist for me as debaters. When it comes to scholarly matters I have high standards and I am free to be that way. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:21:50+00:00

@nntaleb It is a false generalization to claim that because dentists are experts, THEREFORE macroeconomists must be experts. We have been fighting charlatans since the dawn of civilization. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:14:43+00:00

@nntaleb No no no. We in the West are more authentic. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:26:08+00:00

@nntaleb 3) The Mamelouks spoke either a Turkic language or from the Caucasus (Georgian) for recruits. You are very very ignorant. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:25:29+00:00

@nntaleb You really know absolutely NO history. 1) Aramaic came as lingua franca to the Levant WITH THE SWORD when the Persians used it as state language. It is not native to Canaan. 2) Occupation does not necessarily come with a language. The Romans brought Greek for instance. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:22:17+00:00

@nntaleb The common enemy of all East Med brothers and sisters is ketchup on grape leaves. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:08:18+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks Marko! Permalink 2020-06-10 15:05:15+00:00

@nntaleb This is historical meandering. Arabic did not come with the sword, it was a later influence. And I see no reason why one foreign language should be more adapted to a Phoenician past than another. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:04:40+00:00

@nntaleb Cycling, skying Permalink 2020-06-10 14:46:48+00:00

@nntaleb These ARE superspreaders Permalink 2020-06-10 14:22:28+00:00

@nntaleb Before weightlifting Permalink 2020-06-10 14:20:59+00:00

@nntaleb Good point. Syriac is Eastern Aramaic, a lithurgical language. If anything it would be a mixture of Galilean Aramaic (Ma3lula) with old Canaanite substrates. Permalink 2020-06-10 14:09:31+00:00

@nntaleb WEAR A MASK The Salon results. Tutorial answer. Permalink 2020-06-10 13:54:13+00:00

@nntaleb Ignoring cross contagion, assuming one single exposure by client to single source (stylist) Permalink 2020-06-10 13:42:52+00:00

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (Masks) Permalink 2020-06-10 11:33:57+00:00

@nntaleb This is NOT a data point. It is a huge statistical signal. Wear masks. And require that others do so. Permalink 2020-06-10 01:31:27+00:00

@nntaleb This is NOT a data point. It is a huge statistical signal. Permalink 2020-06-10 01:28:33+00:00

@nntaleb L’ histoire d’Alexandrie n’a RIEN A VOIR avec le sujet des savafides. Je bloque les intrusions d’habitude. Permalink 2020-06-10 00:08:09+00:00

@nntaleb I hide hors sujet posts Permalink 2020-06-09 23:26:43+00:00

@nntaleb C’est hors-sujet. Permalink 2020-06-09 23:26:04+00:00

@nntaleb What does this have anything to do with anything? Permalink 2020-06-09 23:20:32+00:00

@nntaleb cc:@Mehdi_IR_DC Permalink 2020-06-09 21:03:46+00:00

@nntaleb To make things more complicated, Shah Ismail was the great-grandson of Emperor Alexios IV Komnenos. cc:@DrMichaelBonner Permalink 2020-06-09 20:43:17+00:00

@nntaleb Must be convex if close to minimum dose. Permalink 2020-06-09 20:30:27+00:00

@nntaleb Mnil dikken bi ATL Permalink 2020-06-09 20:29:35+00:00

@nntaleb Real science does not look scientific, surgeons can look more like butchers than actors playing surgeons, literature doesn’t look literary, projects don’t look like business plans, psychs are impostors & mathematics is precisely abt going to the simplest representation. Permalink 2020-06-09 20:28:50+00:00

@nntaleb B basal Permalink 2020-06-09 19:40:54+00:00

@nntaleb Precaution. Additional. Permalink 2020-06-09 19:37:45+00:00

@nntaleb Mexico? Permalink 2020-06-09 19:34:38+00:00

@nntaleb Btkabbar amma shhm Permalink 2020-06-09 19:16:44+00:00

@nntaleb Just tried. Perfect! Permalink 2020-06-09 19:15:08+00:00

@nntaleb Increased or decreased? Permalink 2020-06-09 18:42:15+00:00

@nntaleb How much more caffeine than a simple expresso? Permalink 2020-06-09 15:42:11+00:00

@nntaleb None but 2 plane rides Permalink 2020-06-09 13:45:24+00:00

@nntaleb Being tested for COVID today. If clear, will partake. Permalink 2020-06-09 12:25:39+00:00

@nntaleb Me too Permalink 2020-06-09 12:07:26+00:00

@nntaleb David figured out what economists did not: all metrics linked to a fat-tailed variable (say variance) will me MUCH MORE fat tailed. Permalink 2020-06-08 23:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb 1)You need to add the fats, 8 calories per gram. No meat is 100% fat free. 2) Water noise + digestive variation in the body may drown the signal. 1½ lbs a daily noise for 1 lb a week deficit! Wait > 10 days. Permalink 2020-06-08 19:00:53+00:00

@nntaleb Actually Most powerful Permalink 2020-06-08 14:56:01+00:00

@nntaleb Helps a lot. But depends on psalm. Psalm 104 has “gadalta meod” meaning G(Lord) is greatest (sounds familiar no?) works best. Permalink 2020-06-08 14:48:49+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-08 14:24:58+00:00

@nntaleb More coffee is better? More water? Permalink 2020-06-08 13:08:03+00:00

@nntaleb The very notion of “probability neglect” was shown to be BS in a paper made a chapter in my book (free PDF). Psychologists have NO CLUE about fat tails. Permalink 2020-06-08 11:56:40+00:00

@nntaleb Ugo, a problemo questa matina. When the coffee can is fresh, it foams. A few days later it stops foaming. Is it normal or maybe something else? Permalink 2020-06-08 11:54:11+00:00

@nntaleb Actually this is the best time for both us and NZ. Your evening. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Matt, you must talk to Zack. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:08:52+00:00

@nntaleb Simon, Meds are good at blocking idiots. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:06:31+00:00

@nntaleb I know I followed him and am very impressed. Permalink 2020-06-08 01:22:55+00:00

@nntaleb Are you Persian? Azeri? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:35:20+00:00

@nntaleb The only person on @Delta who had no masks was a flight attendant on ATL-CMH DL 3014 on June 6, 2020. Return was OK. @Delta can you explain why you do not enforce the rule on your own staff? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:23:09+00:00

@nntaleb Do you enforce mandatory masks? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:18:05+00:00

@nntaleb I flew Delta today. Much more professional. Permalink 2020-06-08 00:12:00+00:00

@nntaleb No, Paphos in Cyprus. Permalink 2020-06-07 23:51:24+00:00

@nntaleb Kif mbayyan wara l mask? Permalink 2020-06-07 23:50:45+00:00

@nntaleb (They were liking our comments) Permalink 2020-06-07 23:05:55+00:00

@nntaleb Looks like @Yachting_Greece may help us… Can you do Paphos-Mykonos? How long does it take? Permalink 2020-06-07 23:05:36+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-07 22:28:49+00:00

@nntaleb The Med is wayyyyy too small for us. Doing Athens-Mykonos in July because I don’t want to fly. Otherwise in Leb most of July. Permalink 2020-06-07 22:26:23+00:00

@nntaleb Tarapia tapioco come se fosse antani. Permalink 2020-06-07 21:13:26+00:00

@nntaleb Same, Beirut, Athens, then ferry. Permalink 2020-06-07 21:09:51+00:00

@nntaleb La versione in italiano … e originale? voicevover? Permalink 2020-06-07 20:55:21+00:00

@nntaleb Fabrizio flaneur ha suggerito nel 2016 Permalink 2020-06-07 20:48:37+00:00

@nntaleb No, e stato sorpreso Permalink 2020-06-07 20:48:02+00:00

@nntaleb Si, Fabrizio! Permalink 2020-06-07 20:45:28+00:00

@nntaleb Supercazzola in inglese: Permalink 2020-06-07 20:38:50+00:00

@nntaleb To Europe? From NY? If so, Me too we should study airlines protocols/density. Permalink 2020-06-07 20:25:48+00:00

@nntaleb Oxygen is sooo overrated. Permalink 2020-06-07 20:21:32+00:00

@nntaleb You are missing the convexity of probability to viral exposure. Permalink 2020-06-07 19:59:45+00:00

@nntaleb Where you going? Permalink 2020-06-07 19:47:51+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, higher order effects fall off at p^2n Permalink 2020-06-07 19:00:18+00:00

@nntaleb R0 ahd include the wffect that every incremental interaction has a lower infection rate because others might have infected them, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:59:01+00:00

@nntaleb Then R0 –>number of people you encounter Permalink 2020-06-07 18:22:25+00:00

@nntaleb Great! If we were in the concave zone then R0 would be astronomical, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:21:39+00:00

@nntaleb Already in the R0, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:17:18+00:00

@nntaleb Must be convex. Permalink 2020-06-07 18:07:22+00:00

@nntaleb (plane is almost empty, so 2 surgical) Permalink 2020-06-07 18:06:27+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need to know what it is. Permalink 2020-06-07 18:05:20+00:00

@nntaleb On Planes: I wear 2 masks plus goggles (plus N95 when there is a crowd). [Now] Permalink 2020-06-07 18:02:17+00:00

@nntaleb That would make the drop even better because it becomes p p_1, p_1

Permalink 2020-06-07 17:54:27+00:00

@nntaleb Inté l malfonito Permalink 2020-06-07 17:52:11+00:00

@nntaleb Does not change the story because they are both <=1. Please think before tweeting. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:49:53+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, can someone check my logic Re: Masks? Any error? If so Masks could SOLVE the pandemic. I have been saying Masks are NECESSARY since Feb, didn’t realize they could be SUFFICIENT! Permalink 2020-06-07 17:47:28+00:00

@nntaleb In fact not even secular. Locals decide. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:25:37+00:00

@nntaleb All across fractally. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:16:07+00:00

@nntaleb Most likely same culture all across Canaan. Ignore political matters, this is the historian’s error. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:15:42+00:00

@nntaleb Mnil Trké, @Marcellenassif ? Permalink 2020-06-07 16:58:15+00:00

@nntaleb No nation has uniformity. Except for its elites. Permalink 2020-06-07 16:52:56+00:00

@nntaleb Decentralized secular Permalink 2020-06-07 16:40:35+00:00

@nntaleb Which #RWRI did you attend, Jack? Permalink 2020-06-07 14:53:36+00:00

@nntaleb Again, we mistook the lower bound for the total effect. This is just starting; we don’t know the track record. Permalink 2020-06-07 14:37:29+00:00

@nntaleb Slippers are no no no. I even get my shoes shined before my Zoom lectures. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:52:12+00:00

@nntaleb 6- SUMMARY: @Safaitic is looking inscriptions in various scripts to replicate period pronunciation, & grammar rather than literary sources. Busts the theory that local Semitic dialects descend from “Classical Arabic”, fabricated later by scholars. NEXT: Do same for Aramaic. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:48:44+00:00

@nntaleb His Gadness and I think alike in numerous things. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:37:45+00:00

@nntaleb No no no no! Permalink 2020-06-07 13:37:00+00:00

@nntaleb SOUL IN THE GAME In Visconti’s movies, when a box was meant to have diamonds, he made sure to put real ones, even when the box remained openened. Never lecture/meet on Zoom unless you dress top to bottom as in real life. And avoid fortune cookie science. #AntiBSVending Permalink 2020-06-07 13:09:28+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of BS in linguistics, as @Safaitic showed and discussed, especially in classifications. Permalink 2020-06-07 11:43:03+00:00

@nntaleb In Kura we pronounce mwayy, in Beirut mayy Permalink 2020-06-07 11:23:52+00:00

@nntaleb Mushroombrain, masks have no side effects (we’ve been using them for millennia). Permalink 2020-06-07 10:45:21+00:00

@nntaleb Las Vegas is a superspreader hub: crowds redistribute germs across the country, with maximal efficiency. Crowds in less connected cities keep germs largely local. Permalink 2020-06-07 03:12:00+00:00

@nntaleb Quel ramdam Permalink 2020-06-07 01:18:49+00:00

@nntaleb Oui, plus qu’un chouaia. Permalink 2020-06-07 00:25:31+00:00

@nntaleb Made @Decafquest sorry he did not fly from Beirut for his interview. You see how much I flew for 2 minutes? 300 miles per minute. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:42:59+00:00

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean “not a new notion”? I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:38:50+00:00

@nntaleb The PDFḤigāzī_w._a_contribution_by_R._Vollandt And the hard copy Permalink 2020-06-06 23:38:03+00:00

@nntaleb As a kid Permalink 2020-06-06 23:26:21+00:00

@nntaleb We are talking about ONE DOMAIN, $$$or professional, not individual safety. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:24:08+00:00

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM ON SAFAITIC, 5 My conversation with Maestro Al-Jallad. I didn’t use no Zoom & #skininthegame paid proper respect by going 631 miles to meet him for a walk in the forest. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:21:25+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo. Hence the “stay” Permalink 2020-06-06 23:04:54+00:00

@nntaleb Just read an interview by his son… he did not like his father. That is not … Permalink 2020-06-06 22:43:06+00:00

@nntaleb Vous connaissez Joseph Balsamo? L’aventurier sicilien derriere le personnage n’est autre que Cagliostro Permalink 2020-06-06 22:37:08+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of both. Working hard will certainly make you prosperous. To be & stay a billionaire you need both skills and luck. Permalink 2020-06-06 21:43:38+00:00

@nntaleb Shukran is not Lebanese. Permalink 2020-06-06 19:43:25+00:00

@nntaleb Je ne lis plus rien en traduction– presque. Permalink 2020-06-06 19:42:41+00:00

@nntaleb Pleiade Permalink 2020-06-06 19:40:59+00:00

@nntaleb Review Amzn Permalink 2020-06-06 18:42:44+00:00

@nntaleb He should have stopped earlier. Permalink 2020-06-06 17:19:03+00:00

@nntaleb Pensano di aver “failed” Permalink 2020-06-06 17:18:21+00:00

@nntaleb Wait, wait. more versions to come. Permalink 2020-06-06 14:22:11+00:00

@nntaleb Yes that’s why he invested there. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:57:05+00:00

@nntaleb Beirut Permalink 2020-06-06 13:53:38+00:00

@nntaleb Which part of the “no matter how rich” you didn’t get? Permalink 2020-06-06 13:49:19+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck that. I write on my own terms. See references in book (referenced) Permalink 2020-06-06 13:45:31+00:00

@nntaleb It snows in Lebanon, sometimes 80% of the country is covered. Only a small strip is coastal. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:43:47+00:00

@nntaleb I a dit cela pour se donner des lettres de nobless car Celine etait considere comme litteraire. Il est de loin meilleur prosateur. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:39:36+00:00

@nntaleb would be nice if you could … follow the thread before responding Permalink 2020-06-06 13:35:42+00:00

@nntaleb No, why don’t you fuckoff? Permalink 2020-06-06 13:26:25+00:00

@nntaleb EVIDENCE BASED SCIENCE IS NOT SCIENCE Clearer version, with examples. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:24:23+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:10:53+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-06 13:09:38+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite. Some feel poorer. That’s my point. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:59:13+00:00

@nntaleb No, but same school. BTW de Botton was an Egyptian Jew; Alexandrian Greeks-Italians-GrecoSyrians-Jews, etc. are the most sophisticated people I have ever met. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:58:19+00:00

@nntaleb An old school European financier told me long time ago: “Those who feel they succeeded in finance write novels or talk mostly about art, culture, politics, or their hobbies; those who failed, no matter how rich, are still talking (or writing) only about finance & markets. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:54:41+00:00

@nntaleb No mushroombrain I explain that naive falsificationism is incompatible with nondeterministic (statistical) approaches but asymmetry is CENTRAL in ranking evidence and classes of distribution. See reference (my stat book) before bullshitting. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:36:03+00:00

@nntaleb From airport, first (short) flight. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:24:03+00:00

@nntaleb Voila, Adam Permalink 2020-06-06 11:23:08+00:00

@nntaleb 4- I will be meeting Maestro Al-Jallad @safaitic for a walk this PM so please supply with questions. Will also supply a synthesis. P.S. The best French prose writer and one who writes the way people REALLY spoke (“argot”) before TV destroyed the local language: Frédéric Dard. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:13:28+00:00

@nntaleb Yes error it is p^2 not 1-p^2 and R_0 severely reduced yes BECAUSE it is linear to p^2 not p. But there is the convexity of p to viral load where the gravy lies Thanks. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:07:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, thanks; did you see the part before in convexity of p to viral load? Permalink 2020-06-06 10:50:03+00:00

@nntaleb Ghassan in my cousin 4th degree remote. Permalink 2020-06-06 00:10:52+00:00

@nntaleb Non capish at all. Even less. Permalink 2020-06-05 21:06:27+00:00

@nntaleb How did you guess? Permalink 2020-06-05 21:05:52+00:00

@nntaleb Frankopan has culture. He knows what to look for. Permalink 2020-06-05 21:05:39+00:00

@nntaleb Replace policy with risk management/decision making. Permalink 2020-06-05 20:56:05+00:00

@nntaleb Do you have proofs it doesn’t save lives? Permalink 2020-06-05 20:21:24+00:00

@nntaleb You’re confabulating. I am not saying that. Permalink 2020-06-05 19:40:13+00:00

@nntaleb Non capish Permalink 2020-06-05 19:39:14+00:00

@nntaleb I don’t know yet @PZalloua Permalink 2020-06-05 19:24:38+00:00

@nntaleb So fucking what? Permalink 2020-06-05 19:15:45+00:00

@nntaleb You will witness that my part of Lebanon is vastly more historical, more Mediterranean, richer in history that Pierre’s, 14 miles away. Permalink 2020-06-05 19:00:13+00:00

@nntaleb Missing page Permalink 2020-06-05 18:23:17+00:00

@nntaleb EVIDENCE BASED SCIENCE IS NOT SCIENCE Paper in Progress, for comments. Permalink 2020-06-05 18:20:53+00:00

@nntaleb I learned that when you open the can, you get foam very easily. Then it stops 3-5 days later. Permalink 2020-06-05 18:18:37+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-05 18:04:07+00:00

@nntaleb Reversals of signs are not statistically important; it is the magnitude of the variations. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:24:42+00:00

@nntaleb Well known for time series. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:09:59+00:00

@nntaleb Before blocking idiots. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:08:26+00:00

@nntaleb Asynchronous correlations Permalink 2020-06-05 16:06:28+00:00

@nntaleb People may like a word –aesthetics Permalink 2020-06-05 14:39:59+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-05 14:38:00+00:00

@nntaleb hahaha! Permalink 2020-06-05 14:18:30+00:00

@nntaleb James, block idiots. Nobody has NITPICKED numbers except media. Permalink 2020-06-05 13:55:27+00:00

@nntaleb 3- He got it. Bottom up linguistics vs top down. Permalink 2020-06-05 13:03:33+00:00

@nntaleb 2- Either, in 8th C Levantine Greek (and possibly Romaic “Rum” Greek), β was pronounced “b” or Arabic ب was pronounced “v”. Unless it was a convention that switched “v” to “ف”. Permalink 2020-06-05 12:29:02+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY SYMPOSIUM AR THIS The genius of Maestro Al-Jallad @Safaitic: he gets that if Future pple want to know how today’s people speak, shd not look at academic books but FB conversations & foreign script MY Q. 1-Discovering “Rab” is lunar not solar (ελ ραβ) not ερραβ. True? Permalink 2020-06-05 12:25:42+00:00

@nntaleb All I have to say is that I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-05 12:14:34+00:00

@nntaleb My limit is 30 seconds but with Maestro Al Jallad different story Permalink 2020-06-05 12:10:44+00:00

@nntaleb If so, write to the firms where you want to invest discuss with them. Twitter is not the place. Permalink 2020-06-05 02:59:18+00:00

@nntaleb I am blocked by both these idiots. Permalink 2020-06-05 02:11:09+00:00

@nntaleb I assume that people share data with regulators, investors, and potential investors under mega qualification rules. Not with Twitter trolls. Gabish? Permalink 2020-06-05 02:06:24+00:00

@nntaleb You can never convince BS vendors. But you may get some entertainment getting them angry. Permalink 2020-06-05 01:40:08+00:00

@nntaleb Ma in francese… volio imperare la lingua di Dante e Berlusconi Permalink 2020-06-05 01:31:54+00:00

@nntaleb Hilarious! 2 BS vendors I’ve busted, @lopezdeprado & Phil🐁@Ptetlock (unrelated fields) became friends, joined forces &… are both losing it. Big time. They are now at the stage where they are now frantically trying to throw the kitchen sink at yours truly. Permalink 2020-06-05 01:18:59+00:00

@nntaleb Victory! Corporations cannot ALWAYS buy science. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:51:44+00:00

@nntaleb Even their account closing page is messed up. Does not respond Permalink 2020-06-04 18:48:49+00:00

@nntaleb It is not set-up for people who want to use it for transactions? Permalink 2020-06-04 18:46:46+00:00

@nntaleb Too late. Closing account. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:30:03+00:00

@nntaleb I closed the @coinbase account (opened a few months ago). Like Must, they answered me (blue check) when I complained but ignore the regular person. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:22:46+00:00

@nntaleb Do they charge for wiring from Bank? Permalink 2020-06-04 18:18:15+00:00

@nntaleb Yes my reaction was because I am switching to another provider. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:14:16+00:00

@nntaleb RWRI is 40 h Permalink 2020-06-04 18:02:34+00:00

@nntaleb I never offend His Gadness. Permalink 2020-06-04 17:56:22+00:00

@nntaleb @coinbase What is going on with you? Why don’t you respond to errors? Permalink 2020-06-04 17:50:55+00:00

@nntaleb He is exempt. Talking about the probability D/T literature. Permalink 2020-06-04 17:38:23+00:00

@nntaleb Read the book . Explains ranking Permalink 2020-06-04 16:46:54+00:00

@nntaleb More formal Permalink 2020-06-04 16:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb This is actually #RWRI Permalink 2020-06-04 14:45:19+00:00

@nntaleb tazzine Permalink 2020-06-04 14:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb Ma questa tazzina non e Lindy. In plastica non vetro. Sono a la ricerca de tassine di vetro. Permalink 2020-06-04 14:27:56+00:00

@nntaleb Bronze age Permalink 2020-06-04 14:12:16+00:00

@nntaleb Hayda l lower bound. Ana jéyé heik heik. Permalink 2020-06-04 13:44:56+00:00

@nntaleb La prossima volta non dimenticarmi. Quatordici persone ma non io? Permalink 2020-06-04 13:35:56+00:00

@nntaleb You forgot your devoted friend! Permalink 2020-06-04 13:30:45+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-06-04 13:26:36+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-04 13:12:42+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, for discussion To expand with @yaneerbaryam and @DrCirillo cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 2020-06-04 13:10:40+00:00

@nntaleb Both Balkan and North Levantine cultures come from Anatolia (dress, music, dance, food even outside Med areas) Permalink 2020-06-04 13:09:37+00:00

@nntaleb Anatolia Permalink 2020-06-04 13:08:26+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-06-04 13:07:37+00:00

@nntaleb Not in printable form. All uni and technical presses ban the availability of final PDF in a way that allows the physical replication of the book. Which is why I elected to start my own publishing firm. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:53:03+00:00

@nntaleb There should be another version for that size. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:44:25+00:00

@nntaleb Unfair I lost weight since! Permalink 2020-06-04 11:43:53+00:00

@nntaleb Which discussion? With whom? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:29:05+00:00

@nntaleb Should be 6 by 9 Permalink 2020-06-04 11:28:17+00:00

@nntaleb Everything East-Med (includes S. Italy) comes originally from the triangle Zagros-Anatolia-Southern Caucasus (Georgia-Armenia-Iran-Central Anatolia). Permalink 2020-06-04 11:21:43+00:00

@nntaleb Iki-bir Permalink 2020-06-04 11:18:36+00:00

@nntaleb I guess I am one of the first authors who helps people to legally pirat their books. The US version starts to ship later this month. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:16:42+00:00

@nntaleb How much did it cost to print in BRL? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:15:02+00:00

@nntaleb Some “besh” is Turkish, no? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:08:01+00:00

@nntaleb La traduzione in inglese e ancora piu … Permalink 2020-06-04 11:06:37+00:00

@nntaleb In Amici miei? Permalink 2020-06-04 10:44:54+00:00

@nntaleb Supercazzola (scappellamento a destra) Permalink 2020-06-04 10:38:24+00:00

@nntaleb W Petro Trad Permalink 2020-06-03 22:35:18+00:00

@nntaleb Choukrane is not in Lebanese. Permalink 2020-06-03 22:12:52+00:00

@nntaleb But the fact that it has an Arabic name doesn’t contradict the other fact that there is practically no Arab ancestry in the Peninsula. Permalink 2020-06-03 20:19:17+00:00

@nntaleb Arabic, the “al” is not present in Phoenician. Permalink 2020-06-03 20:12:48+00:00

@nntaleb Silvi my ethics ban me from front running and hoarding. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:20:49+00:00

@nntaleb Bru7 knt kill shahr jm3a. Halla2 nater la yfta7o l matarat. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:20:16+00:00

@nntaleb Msh shaghlté. Ma b7bb l ejtimé3at! Permalink 2020-06-03 19:11:47+00:00

@nntaleb Great! Another mistake debunked. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:10:30+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! Natrikék! Permalink 2020-06-03 19:09:07+00:00

@nntaleb Generalizing the particular Permalink 2020-06-03 19:07:37+00:00

@nntaleb Lal 7all bil Lebnén baddkon ra2is wizara sinné immo maruniyyé marto shi3iyyé min emm armaniyyé… …Ye3né wa7ad rum ortodox. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:03:44+00:00

@nntaleb I ordered La LLave. Will see. Permalink 2020-06-03 18:54:17+00:00

@nntaleb OK, ordered @tabacco_y_rhum Permalink 2020-06-03 18:25:57+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, could this grinder work? Permalink 2020-06-03 18:16:06+00:00

@nntaleb qareb means gets closer. Permalink 2020-06-03 16:46:19+00:00

@nntaleb 3rd moment must be finite Permalink 2020-06-03 15:29:22+00:00

@nntaleb “The word” not the words. Permalink 2020-06-03 15:14:30+00:00

@nntaleb No. BE is not for fat tails Permalink 2020-06-03 15:11:25+00:00

@nntaleb Bl lebnene natra mnatra! Permalink 2020-06-03 15:04:45+00:00

@nntaleb Good job. Many “statisticians” have no clue about The Law of Large Number LLN …subject of my Technical Inverto. Some know what happens when n=1 or n= infinity, not for n= 34 or 671… Cancels much of the tools in social science. Permalink 2020-06-03 14:58:47+00:00

@nntaleb Mais avec la paix avec le Liban bien sur! Permalink 2020-06-03 13:32:32+00:00

@nntaleb Ha shana aba… Permalink 2020-06-03 13:24:30+00:00

@nntaleb bférégh l sabr Permalink 2020-06-03 12:30:20+00:00

@nntaleb Un grand honneur! Permalink 2020-06-03 12:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes al gharb = “the West” Permalink 2020-06-02 22:59:23+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry missed Permalink 2020-06-02 22:54:52+00:00

@nntaleb You forgot the “if”. Permalink 2020-06-02 22:41:13+00:00

@nntaleb 8:30 am in the US? I am curious Permalink 2020-06-02 18:31:22+00:00

@nntaleb Efkharisto poly! Permalink 2020-06-02 18:18:19+00:00

@nntaleb 4) The older generation must not justify its “utility” to the younger one. They earned it. CIVILIZATION: Athenians granted old mules who worked hard a privileged and “honorable” retirement, free to roam with a pension at public expense. That’s the reverse of Geronticide. Permalink 2020-06-02 18:03:20+00:00

@nntaleb RWRI 14, Aug 10-21, online #RWRI can’t teach you to make money (nobody really can). But we can show you how to survive/not blowup. #RWRI won’t teach you probability (you don’t really need it). But we can teach you #BSbusting of Levels 0-3. #BSbusting! Permalink 2020-06-02 17:31:19+00:00

@nntaleb Not the point! They have earned their retirement and they are allowed to not be despoiled of their dividend. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:58:18+00:00

@nntaleb 3)Do not disrupt the Silver rule: don’t treat the older generation the way you don’t want the next generation to treat you. Civilization and group moral rectitude started with the Silver and Golden rules. Geronticide is morally repulsive; only accepted in nouveau-riche societies. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:21:28+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Societies types: one for which a life is a life, another where life is some actuarial number. Watch the ravages economics has done to modern societies: comes with scientism, pseudoutilitarianism, pseudocost-benefit analysis & … moral decay. As in Dostoyevski’s Crocodile. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:04:47+00:00

@nntaleb This is spurious. If someone kills someone else BY NEGLIGENCE, should the penalty be age dependent? It is permissible to kill the old? Permalink 2020-06-02 14:11:59+00:00

@nntaleb They statistically *would* can also apply to murder. Permalink 2020-06-02 14:10:08+00:00

@nntaleb LOGICAL INCONSISTENCY DU JOUR Someone said “if an old person dies of COVID, it’s not a big deal because they could have died of someone else”. To be consistent, you must accept: “If a someone kills an old person, it’s not a big deal because they could have died of someone else”. Permalink 2020-06-02 13:55:00+00:00

@nntaleb Turkish sofra Permalink 2020-06-02 13:04:51+00:00

@nntaleb It would be طويله not طاوله Permalink 2020-06-02 12:50:05+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile; the point is because Rabbis were ALSO doctors. Permalink 2020-06-02 12:38:53+00:00

@nntaleb Not Arabic Permalink 2020-06-02 12:32:19+00:00

@nntaleb The French colloquial uses for country “bled” from the Arabic بلد , “cleb” or “clebard” for dog from كلب, but the official language bowdlerises such influences. New DuJour’: “To whistle” in Lebanese “sawfar” is from the Byzantine Greek σφυρίζω Permalink 2020-06-02 12:18:49+00:00

@nntaleb We call this trbayzé! Permalink 2020-06-02 11:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb Trké Permalink 2020-06-02 11:53:21+00:00

@nntaleb There were no planes… But we used it for planes Permalink 2020-06-02 11:48:28+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL IRONIES DU JOUR +Spaniards use the Arabic word for table, mesa, مائدة, while Lebanese use “tawlé” from Italian tavola & Egyptians use “tarabeza” frm Greek Τραπέζι. + French (slang) use the Arabic “toubib” طبيب, when Lebanese use “hakim” linked to Hebrew “rabbi” חכם Permalink 2020-06-02 11:47:06+00:00

@nntaleb Used to say néwlun, from the Greek nevlon. Permalink 2020-06-02 11:39:32+00:00

@nntaleb Per l’ultima volta? Permalink 2020-06-02 11:35:12+00:00

@nntaleb Our paper explained on @physorg_com Permalink 2020-06-02 11:08:12+00:00

@nntaleb Racism is the use of the law of large numbers (and scaling) in the opposite direction, by attributing presumed population traits to single individuals. Permalink 2020-06-02 10:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb The fellow @octonion knows his stuff (probabilist, certified nonBSVendor). Similar to data from Northern Italia (adjusted for obesity, etc.). That is almost a lower bound as we can have fatalities from people infected 2 months ago. Permalink 2020-06-02 00:17:54+00:00

@nntaleb Lamb? Permalink 2020-06-01 22:35:58+00:00

@nntaleb SECOND PRINTING now freely available PDF Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications Permalink 2020-06-01 22:35:31+00:00

@nntaleb Any idea about the Indo-European or other origin? Permalink 2020-06-01 22:31:28+00:00

@nntaleb I am very imperfect. Permalink 2020-06-01 17:42:00+00:00

@nntaleb (A boring dispute w/academics; ignore) Thanks @HietanenPaavo for sending this. Turns out @PTetlock🐁 is lying, claiming I made a private dispute public. There was NO private dispute; he just started a public harrassment campaign (“the 🐁”). Paavo linked Permalink 2020-06-01 16:16:23+00:00

@nntaleb Shahada is the same as the Syriac “7ad Aloho” Permalink 2020-06-01 16:06:48+00:00

@nntaleb No this is the study used to discredit Raoult Permalink 2020-06-01 14:09:48+00:00

@nntaleb A reminder that 1) Science is hard, 2) Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability. Permalink 2020-06-01 14:04:34+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-01 13:49:25+00:00

@nntaleb Philologist friends, Is the root for מופת in anyway linked to muppistu in Akkadian? If not, what is the Semitic (or non-Semitic) root? Permalink 2020-06-01 13:13:59+00:00

@nntaleb Wrong etymlgy. Malachite = green Permalink 2020-06-01 02:30:24+00:00

@nntaleb My full time professional specialty is squid ink. The rest are hobbies. Permalink 2020-06-01 02:24:05+00:00

@nntaleb Independence means never supporting a person, only select policies. Permalink 2020-06-01 01:16:09+00:00

@nntaleb I would have blocked this imbecile, Joan (mistook him for a scientist). But it would eliminate the discussion. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:13:07+00:00

@nntaleb I publicly said I would never vote for Trump, on CNBC. This is a smear campaign. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:06:53+00:00

@nntaleb That’s Germany. L’Italie commence a Naples. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:03:29+00:00

@nntaleb Mon ami, we were fighting with them ALL ALONG (@yaneerbaryam , @DrCirillo) because they could not handle absence of evidence which is stronger under fat tails. Permalink 2020-05-31 23:58:59+00:00

@nntaleb 130/70 Permalink 2020-05-31 22:55:07+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile, no. Permalink 2020-05-31 22:53:14+00:00

@nntaleb He does not get that we said that EPIDEMIOLOGY is useful as a field of study but they proved unable to deal with policy recommendations when it comes to tail risk. It is like being a doctor and missing most of medicine. Permalink 2020-05-31 21:40:10+00:00

@nntaleb Un ancetre commun aux Menasce et Cattaui? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:50:50+00:00

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile: I am offering PRECISE solutions. It is just that charlatans don’t like them. Permalink 2020-05-31 20:45:04+00:00

@nntaleb René Cattaui est aussi ton ancetre? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:38:38+00:00

@nntaleb Je vais donc passer par Turin! Je serai a Milan en novembre. Permalink 2020-05-31 20:28:10+00:00

@nntaleb L’ accento e meta francese meta ebraico Permalink 2020-05-31 20:27:04+00:00

@nntaleb Hai vissuto a Roma, no? Genitori diplomatici? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:21:53+00:00

@nntaleb Tu connais l’expression! Permalink 2020-05-31 20:20:25+00:00

@nntaleb Ron, je parlais de ton grand-oncle Permalink 2020-05-31 19:54:39+00:00

@nntaleb Batroun? Permalink 2020-05-31 19:38:29+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ Things that went intellectually bankrupt over the pandemics & will hardly recover: Epidemiology Fortune cookie (positive) “evidence” base science Bureaucratic topdown structures: WHO, CDC, UK Group Rent seeking academia can no longer be financed. Universities will crumble. Permalink 2020-05-31 18:59:05+00:00

@nntaleb I mio turno Permalink 2020-05-31 18:43:58+00:00

@nntaleb How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades. Permalink 2020-05-31 18:30:45+00:00

@nntaleb Aretas is Hareth Permalink 2020-05-31 18:12:13+00:00

@nntaleb Lying down it’s always lower Permalink 2020-05-31 16:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb I will take them back; guaranteed Permalink 2020-05-31 16:34:05+00:00

@nntaleb Liguria? Permalink 2020-05-31 13:40:26+00:00

@nntaleb Benefits of Quarantine: No restaurants: no seed oil, no bad grains. + More time to bust BS Vendors, read novels. + Weight loss 12lbs, resting heart rate 49 BPM. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:32:53+00:00

@nntaleb Pope Francis : Stop the destruction of a historical and cultural site in Nahr El-Kalb, Lebanon! – Sign the Petition! via @Change Permalink 2020-05-31 13:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb It also depends on the music, as you will see. It is very sensitive. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:13:41+00:00

@nntaleb That’s how it is spelled in Atlanta, GA. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:00:27+00:00

@nntaleb Added to the book a comment on “evidence based” scientism Permalink 2020-05-31 12:34:21+00:00

@nntaleb You need music in the background. Permalink 2020-05-31 12:12:40+00:00

@nntaleb Kept getting injuries from cleans. Do them with lower weights. I only get injured when I listen to advice, or watch a video. I never get injured when I follow my intuition or take tiny “nudges”. Permalink 2020-05-31 10:28:02+00:00

@nntaleb Look at the reactions to the warnings in Jan. We had a barrage of idiots many of whom deleted their tweets. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:44:48+00:00

@nntaleb Hoy! Permalink 2020-05-31 00:39:56+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an honest person, Jaffer. Argumentative, but honest. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:19:06+00:00

@nntaleb You are talking to an imbecile, Ofer. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:12:28+00:00

@nntaleb Whivh one? Permalink 2020-05-31 00:11:55+00:00

Peer-Review, Revenge, Tetlock , Mandelbrot, Asness, BS Vendors, Science | Twitter

On 6/1/20 Twitter retired ‘old twitter’ and broke my amateurish code that scraped NNT’s tweets. Working on a new version.

Tail risk of contagious diseases

@nntaleb (A boring dispute w/academics; ignore) Thanks @HietanenPaavo for sending this. Turns out @PTetlock is lying, claiming I made a private dispute public. There was NO private dispute; he just started a public harrassment campaign (“the “). Paavo linked   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:16 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@threadreaderapp Hi, here is your unroll: @nntaleb: MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to   Talk to you soon. Permalink 8:58 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb A reminder that 1) Science is hard, 2) Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability.   Permalink 7:04 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb Philologist friends, Is the root for מופת in anyway linked to muppistu in Akkadian? If not, what is the Semitic (or non-Semitic) root?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb My full time professional specialty is squid ink. The rest are hobbies.   Permalink 7:24 PM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile: I am offering PRECISE solutions. It is just that charlatans don’t like them.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:45 PM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Things that went intellectually bankrupt over the pandemics & will hardly recover: Epidemiology Fortune cookie (positive) “evidence” base science Bureaucratic topdown structures: WHO, CDC, UK Group Rent seeking academia can no longer be financed. Universities will crumble. Permalink 11:59 AM – 31 May 2020

@DrCirillo Ottimo italiano, Nassim. Bravo.   Permalink 11:49 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades. Permalink 11:30 AM – 31 May 2020

@DrCirillo Qui, se interessa, parlo del rischio di coda nelle pandemie, sulla base del recente lavoro con @nntaleb. (the video is in Italian)   Permalink 11:19 AM – 31 May 2020

@paolarebeiz Results of Thawra petitions and protests to UNESCO. UNESCO is working on halting the contruction site!!! thank you all for your support! #UnescoKnowsWhatsRight #SaveNahrElKalb   Permalink 7:48 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Benefits of Quarantine: No restaurants: no seed oil, no bad grains. + More time to bust BS Vendors, read novels. + Weight loss 12lbs, resting heart rate 49 BPM. Permalink 6:32 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Pope Francis : Stop the destruction of a historical and cultural site in Nahr El-Kalb, Lebanon! – Sign the Petition!   via @Change Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Added to the book a comment on “evidence based” scientism   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:34 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Look at the reactions to the warnings in Jan. We had a barrage of idiots many of whom deleted their tweets.   Permalink 5:44 PM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Takes very little effort to clean up as very few people cause most of the damage. However the strategy if to automate blocking of groups/friends as trolls operate in hordes. Very similar to viruse #FatTails. (Note that the same applies to BS vendors. Not many, but overactive)   Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb “Restaurants are concave. Limited upside, larger downside (like short volatility). Mega-fragile to events and circumstances; nonportable and illiquid”.   Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) You all get organized, fight between one another (but no more blocking), etc. I will take care of the publishing (nonprofit). Permalink 10:14 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 8:29 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb The point is that Fat Tonys and grandmothers don’t make the mistakes of those levels 0-3. Permalink 7:59 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we need to start a group to work on Lebanese (Levantine) language travel books for visitors diaspora. They usually go study Arabic taught by IYIs & can’t communicate. Published on Amzn @HsenAndil @Marcellenassif @turlevnon @Decafquest @Zzeghedrane @Extrachelle etc. Permalink 7:58 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb The BS Vendors in probability. For those who don’t get my logic, here is a rank of knowledge in probability with level 0 Phil the rat @PTetlock and level 5 “Russian” probabilists. Unless one is Level 4, errors in probability can be harmful. Permalink 6:39 AM – 30 May 2020

@ektrit @nntaleb @Extrachelle @GregorySMcMuray @Eleni_Co @Marcellenassif @byzantinepower   Permalink 2:09 AM – 30 May 2020

@jdceulaer Ik schreef ook een essay over de catastrofe die corona heet, na lectuur van ⁦@nntaleb⁩ en gesprekken met ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ en ⁦@bslagter⁩. Over Zwarte Zwanen, Russische roulette en het mondmaskerdrama.   Permalink 9:59 PM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb 100% of 200 worker test positive. Isn’t it a problem with a test that produces too many false positives? #Witgensteinsruler   via @business Permalink 5:21 PM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Bringing Risk Parity into this. It is a footnote since the entire apparatus of Modern Finance is busted.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:57 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Follow the least boring/most entertaining path. Nobody ever learned a new language from nerds. Twitter helps. Follow someone without translation. Or, better, fight with her/him to break the boredom.   Permalink 11:39 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntalebbot “You can tell how uninteresting a person is by asking him whom he finds interesting.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:31 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Should I block @Mangan150 for defective logic & promoting harm? Permalink 8:43 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb If you like them, wish them prosperity. If you dislike them, wish them extreme wealth. Permalink 8:39 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb I signed the petition letter to the IMF re:situation in Lebanon and invite you to join   Permalink 6:02 AM – 29 May 2020

@ComTradGuru 8 years later, this article remains one of our favorite portraits of Maestro @nntaleb (by @carolecadwalla)   Permalink 12:38 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Un Decameron bilingue (italiano-spagnolo)! Per migliorare le due lingue. Sto cercando di piu! Permalink 6:41 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb For acceptance, we require a SINGLE paragraph bio. No fluff, etc. For scholarship, can be 1 ½ paragraphs. Permalink 12:55 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb RWRI 14: Will be online, but stretched over 2 weeks. August 10-21 weekdays 8:30-12 noon EST (3:30-7 PM Damascus time, 2:30-6 PM Palermo time) We accept bitcoins. No more 2 days, all 10 days. We offer 20-40% scholarships. 11 Instructors (list TBA)   Permalink 12:54 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors unite So Phil the rat @PTetlock enters a debate in a subject he knows NOTHING about, in a situation beyond his understanding (I was attacked by Asness who blew a fuse, not the opposite for saying the Ilmanen study was BS). Simply…because I busted him as a BS vendor Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Lopez de Prado does not stop at academic credentials.   Permalink 8:32 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Evidence that at least 21,198 persons on Twitter do not understand meta-problems. #Russell #LiarParadox #Epimenedes #Godel   Permalink 7:43 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb @fotpetr Permalink 4:15 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Looks like there is BEFORE and AFTER with @lopezdeprado after I blocked him for inflation of credentials (few citations to support a “most read” claim)   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 7:13 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Clearer Permalink 6:58 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY PUZZLE Friends, help. @bmiloy is interested in meaning of מוֹפְתִ֗ים. Turns out 2 strange things 1) Why is מֹפְתִ֤ים also spelled מוֹפְתִ֗ים ? 2) The Hb Mofti מוֹפְתִי (exemplary) comes from the root מפְתִ (kotel), Why is MFTI مفتي with root FT’ فتا ? Permalink 6:52 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb If you EVER catch me discuss a book I haven’t read, I shut my Twitter acct & leave public life. (Exceptions: excerpts Das Kapital, Smith’s TMS, AlFarabi) (PS. I despise pple who discuss my ideas w/o having read my books.) Below: Read Pinker & other crap   Permalink 3:02 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb It seems to be a paradox because r has a finite mean but X has an infinite mean. cc: @spyrosmakrid @fotpetr Permalink 2:12 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Comment on the Cirillo and Taleb (2020) “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases”: the rate of growth of fatalities may be predictable but, by what seems to be a paradox (it’s not), the quantity of fatalities is NOT. Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb For our French friends who requested a conversation on Ellipticality: with Raphael Douady.   Permalink 10:08 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Glad to see people recreating stuff in my book.   Permalink 8:33 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to get it!! But I picked #AQR among all other representatives of the Flawed Mod. Finance because they keep publishing unrigorous crap about tail hedging & Ilmanen is verbalistic. (Sorry I can’t stand fools. #Rigor in reasoning).   Permalink 5:07 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Do polls work, that is, correctly represent preferences? Permalink 4:48 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Ellipticality (Technical) (My Probability Mooc)   via @YouTube Permalink 12:52 PM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM on ELLIPTICALITY and how it cancels diversification   Permalink 11:45 AM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb The points presented by @CliffordAsness are far from technical. (BTW I am not blocking him so he can rebut as he wishes).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:25 AM – 26 May 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | #Tailhedge-deniers go | inspiration sparked by @nntaleb & @moritzheiden Help me pay my bills. Please!   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM ON RISK PARITY Friends, in the wake of the road-rage by the lunatic of #AQR, @CliffordAsness, I will post short tutorial videos explaining the BS in theories of diversification. I will answer Qs here. Thread is v. technical. Nonscientific commentators will be blocked Permalink 7:04 AM – 26 May 2020

@reiyashi one man on his journey Permalink 5:54 AM – 26 May 2020

@mikeandallie 3/3 Following that not-so-great project I took a stab at explaining some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas on the sensitivity of virus models to inputs that, happily, are finally starting to get more attention today. Here’s that twitter thread:   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 May 2020

@yaneerbaryam Four month anniversary still reads true @nntaleb @normonics #coronavirus   Permalink 4:39 AM – 26 May 2020

@GrahamAMcLeod V happy to see this new Nature Physics paper by Nassim Taleb – one of the few ppl to break consensus and warn of Coronavirus dangers as early as Jan 2020   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:35 PM – 25 May 2020

@Covid19Digest “What @nntaleb understood, and what public health officials in places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam understood, was that there was an asymmetry between overreacting and under-reacting.”   Permalink 3:20 PM – 25 May 2020

@TalebWisdom “Never hire an academic unless his function is to partake of the rituals of writing papers or taking exams.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 May 2020

@HarrisonSearles @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb imagined that possibility in January.   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 11:59 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb I sorely discovered from the Monsanto days that @reason was a shill house totally unreliable. It is in fact damaging to the liberty & localist movements. You must block everyone who writes there.   Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb It is not about a long life Non ut diu vivamus curandum est sed ut satis (Seneca)   Permalink 11:05 AM – 25 May 2020

@octonion Even if every single person in New York City had already been infected, 0.3% of New York City would be about 24000, and New York City had already passed that in excess deaths by the end of April. In other words, this is complete nonsense.   Permalink 10:48 AM – 25 May 2020

@EricTopol The video of @DrCirillo and @nntaleb on this fat-tails paper, the tails-wags-the-dog and its important implications   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:22 AM – 25 May 2020

@EricTopol The fat-tail phenomenon of pandemics, dating back to 429 BC and including #COVID19, is vital to recognize but tail-risk is largely ignored in current epidemiological models @DrCirillo @nntaleb @NaturePhysics ★ very perceptive work   @tudelft ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 8:14 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb 11 AM Brooklyn std time (5 PM Palermo, 6 PM Aleppo) we discuss our paper on pandemics in Nature Physics. We +comment on verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords w/o understanding probability s.a. BS vendor @PTetlock+show error w/Ioannidis +propose basic probability training.   Permalink 6:52 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb So @clairlemon barges & takes sides in into a conflict she knows nothing about, in a professional subject she knows nothing about, with a lunatic (@cliffordasness) the content of whose rants she understands nothing, simply because: YOURS TRULY is a party in the conflict.   Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb Let me rephrase Would an online tuition of 60% of physical for executive education be Permalink 6:18 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Let me rephrase Would an online tuition of 60% of physical for executive education be Permalink 6:18 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Lung ventilators in Antifragile (2012). I later discussed in a scientific paper. Doctors don’t get convexity.   Permalink 2:41 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb I cannot live in societies that spend trillions on nuclear weapons yet are incapable of delivering COVID testing to their populations. The world’s pseudosophistication & misallocation of resources have been increasing… Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb What are online fees for executive programs as % of the physical? Permalink 11:57 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb The date: most likely August Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we will be doing #RWRI 14 online. To accommodate people overseas it will be 2 weeks (10 days) 8-12 am EST (2-6 PM in Agrigento, Sicily). We still need to work out details and learn to use Zoom. Meanwhile women scholarships are open. Please check   Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb One thing worse than being blamed for the wrong reason: being praised for the wrong reason. Permalink 11:25 AM – 24 May 2020

@Jasak98 “Al Zaytouni” restaurant in North-Lebanon Using Syriac and Garshouni in their menu. Permalink 11:01 AM – 24 May 2020

@DrCirillo An informal conversation with @nntaleb. Tomorrow, Monday 25, at 5pm (CET), in sync with the paper becoming openly available.   Permalink 9:32 AM – 24 May 2020

@Decafquest Oh look, @paugasol is readinh @nntaleb’s SITG   Permalink 5:27 AM – 24 May 2020

@HarryDCrane Part of understanding statistics is understanding when a single data point indicates more than just an anecdote, and also when a full analysis of a large dataset is nothing more than an anecdote.   Permalink 7:38 PM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb 3eid Mbarak to those who celebrate! Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Excellent solution   Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Adding to book: Foundation of Risk Parity is, officially: 1) finite and KNOWN variance 2) ellipticality. Problem: variance is not projectable since kurtosis is patently infinite. No ellipticallity since infinite higher order moments. Also problem of preasymptotic behavior. Permalink 7:44 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Forgot to reference the lunatic of #AQR, @CliffordAsness Permalink 7:02 AM – 23 May 2020

@HarryDCrane Soon to be accompanied by the inaugural “No BS Probability Conference” 1-day event (online) hosted by @researchersone and possibly other sponsors. Permalink 6:59 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, 1st printing is pre-sold out so I can correct mistakes in MS for a quick 2nd printing that shd hit 10 d later. Comments welcome!   The discussion w/the lunatic of #AQR is my point that their entire analytic apparatus is incompatible with fat tails. Permalink 6:52 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb No, I am NOT a polymath. I abhore the notion of polymaths. I have a single field: PROBABILITY/RISK/UNCERTAINTY and it happens to be at the core of many fields. Philology & literature are hobbies, not professional contributions.   Permalink 5:59 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb No, I did not block Marcos López de Prado @lopezdeprado because of his comments. I had blocked him weeks ago when I saw these claims in his bio. Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Same for exponent. Seems impossible to solve the composition analytically. Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb CHEATING: By simulation the base is ½ and converges quickly. We cannot use traditional methods because the “generator” function f has a second argument in it, here p. Permalink 4:58 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb If you describe an early precautionary reaction as conscious panic, it confuses your detractors…   Permalink 5:21 PM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb This may take 5 min or part of the weekend. (please no comments by non-math amateurs). Permalink 11:59 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Thread. When someone says “you’re panicking” say “Yes, what’s wrong with such a risk management approach?” When someone says “you’re an asshole”, answer “yes, what’s wrong being asshole with the arrogant”, etc.   Permalink 10:42 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 5/n Mandelbrot has a monstrous scientific erudition & a yuuge curiosity. He knew arcane math stuff only autodidacts know. But he respected erudition much more than scientific rank, based on his fascinations with polyglot characters like Jean de Menasce.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:02 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Did Pinker do another “empirical” analysis to figure out if those who believe in the afterlife have a statitically significant shorter life expectancy? No. You never never miss with Pinker. Wherever he ventures, he manages to produce BS.   Permalink 9:42 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I am not used to psychiatricize people; first time I do it as Asness (henceforth “The Lunatic of AQR”) stupidly went into such claims. Permalink 9:34 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb NARCISSISTIC RAGE: HOW ASNESS BLEW A FUSE One shd resist making psychiatric claims, excepty for situations where 100% self evident. Busted #AQR: 1) Fails to deliver claims, 2) Uses pseudoscientific analytics not for fat tails. =>Asness goes nuts.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 4/n The great Mandelbrot was 100% uncompromising. But he suffered because he cared abt honors & academic status; he depended on a certain establishment. So I learned from him to do opposite 1) be 100% independent, 2) Do theorems & proofs (which, being intuitive, he hated). Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 3/n Mandelbrot’s contempt for Fama prompted to ignore story in book but it is revived by the connection to the *AQR lunatic* the disgusting @CliffordAsness Fat tails invalidate the tools of finance and Fama is indeed by his own admission unscientific.   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/n Fama’s reasons was that Fat Tails were “incompatible with the tools in social science”. It’s like using the map of Tokyo in Mexico because “here is a map”. I actually wrote to Fama & got same HORRENDOUS answer. Mandelbrot saw Fama never understood the CONSEQUENCES of tails. Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 1/n The great Mandelbrot despised Fama whom he found both clueless & dishonorable. Fama was a French major & M supervised his thesis; they applied the Levy-Stable Distribution for markets (mistake since it’s a limit not met preasymtotically). Then Fama turned on M to use MPT. Permalink 5:20 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Grazie amici! L’autore piu suggerito qui e Calvino; e il piu facile da leggere? Leggere la letteratura in una lingua straniera e molto difficile; qual e il libro piu semplice di Calvino? Permalink 4:35 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb We need some help from philologists (including maestros @Safaitic & @PhDniX) about the strange verb دمغ for “killing by damaging one’s head”.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Here we go, @sapinker will never disappoint. You bust his BS in one field, he appears in another.   Permalink 8:14 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Google finally discovering that Lebanese is not Arabic. Permalink 2:27 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb نحنا منئول بلكورة ” الغايب عزرو معوا”   Permalink 2:17 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 13) The book STAT CONS OF FAT TAILS is freely available in PDF here (easier to read than ArXiv).   Permalink 2:11 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Com’e Eco in italiano? Facile? Permalink 1:39 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Amici italiani, Sto cercando un romanzo facile da leggere in italiano. Sono stato sorpreso di scoprire che la Moravia è molto più ricca e difficile da leggere rispetto, per esempio, a Machiavelli. Qual è il più semplice? Che ne dite di? Barico? Di Lampedusa? Schiaschia? Altri? Permalink 1:29 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb (Note: I am not connected to @TalebWisdom). Robb’s book, it is safe to say, is still on my mind 13 years later!   Permalink 10:10 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 12) Taking stock: AQR pans general tail hedging as a loser’s game. Universa’s risk mitigated portfolio life to date (and BEFORE 2020) outperforms SPX—by slashing risk. AQR portfolios, …, not so much. MPT is smoke and mirrors, topic of my new book.   Permalink 7:21 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 11) Next time, @CliffordAsness someone tries to have lunch with you to discuss risk parity & things, do not blow him away unceremoniously claiming you don’t eat his food. It would have avoided you the embarrassment of these genuine but highly unscientific outbursts. Permalink 7:19 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb The responses of Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness too this thread have been vastly… nontechnical.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:01 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 10) The responses by @CliffordAsness to this thread have been vastly …nontechnical. Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb #Lindy! That’s the way to do science without the rentseekingacademiconasalary gaming the system.   Permalink 4:16 AM – 21 May 2020

@enzolamberti Buongiorno @hugowiz , did you have your @NonMeek #brikka coffee yet? Permalink 12:32 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 9) For the general public watching the road rage of Mr Asness who misreplied to my last post: The claims by AQR is: tail risk is not needed by funds because there are ways to do it better. As we are finding out: the performance of AQR doesn’t show it.   Permalink 6:56 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb The entire point is by that by cricitizing a tail risk mitigation via OTM options one would expect AQR’s risk mitigation to be better. It’s not and that’s the story. (I also insist that there is was never a PERSONAL mention of Cliff Aness, just AQR.)   Permalink 6:23 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 7/n Perhaps Mr Asness can show us empiricists, with the benefit of hindsight, which fund he wants us to pick to get the relative performance. PS- I have no interest in Asness, not even AQR, but they can’t get away w/nonsensical claims abt tail risk.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:05 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 6/n Perhaps Mr Asness should show us which of his funds we should look at, and since his answer has a psychiatry dimension, we turn to some psychiatry.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:27 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 5/n #AQR Make AQR aware that OTM options have >> fatter tails than underlying (+ one-tailed), hence hidden moment are substantial. Similar to floods. “Empirical” simulations are not predictive in the naive intrapolative way.   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR What You See and Don’t See: Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution. The said “empirical” distribution hides stuff! Where is the hidden moment for n observations? Intuition of the results of paper below   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 4/n #AQR Ilmanen the bullshitter (& the AQR team) among other things don’t seem to get that tail payoff != probability x payoff under fat tails. You need to include payoffs not part of this, and g(x) is convex (option payoffs by convexity are MUCH MORE FAT TAILED than underlying) Permalink 1:45 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 3/n Antti Ilmanen claims tails must be expensive from lottery tickets (but excludes 1987 crash); doesn’t get basics: Stat 102 does’t cover when assumptions are violated (Gauss-Markov, etc.) Fails to get Bayes’ rule. Note: while RISK PARITY is ~unique, tail hedges vary hugely. Permalink 1:27 PM – 20 May 2020

@john_f_hamer “Trust those who trust you and distrust those who are suspicious of others.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2nd edition) @nntaleb Permalink 12:40 PM – 20 May 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Yes! Although I had heard it before, I only got the consequences of it when I read your book and played around with simulations. It bogles my mind how much misunderstanding comes from not replicating everything in statistics. Thank you for saying it aloud! Permalink 9:37 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/n (#AQR) Meanwhile Universa hedged portf outperformed SP while AQR crap and RISK PARITY junk underperformed. I cannot believe that AQR will issue claims from hypotheticals. Further they are mired in the probability distributions & metrics that have been amply debunked. Permalink 6:46 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 1/n AQR issued 2 flawed reports saying tail risk hedging doesn’t work (in theory), options are “expensive” Yet they did not reveal that 1) Their OWN risk premia strategies lost money. 2) Their other public crap underperforms the MKT. Insult to clients & the REAL WORLD. Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Explaining with minimal complexity the non-ellipticality of probability distributions when the correlation is unstable. Explains the failures of RISK PARITY, some BS invention that sells to gullible clients innocent of probability. Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb FRAGILITY, OVEROPTIMIZATION & COVID No, it’s not the lockdown that’s breaking NYC! Restaurants & hotels are so stretched (mostly rent) that they go bust after a 8-18% drop in rev/occupancy. Same w/theaters,museums. Real estate must adjust (distancing) #Convexity #Nonlinear Permalink 5:42 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb This is central.   Permalink 12:53 PM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 3b/ Weightlifting from @CoachRippetoe & @GrantSSC, exercise/health from @GuruAnaerobic Levantine language from @HsenAndil, @Marcellenassif, @turlevnon & others And here and there from friends on Twitter Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 3a/ You can learn yuuuuugely from Twitter while playing. I learned Inequalities frm Maestro Bogomolny (RIP) & the FB Romanians Semitic philology frm @Safaitic & @PhDniX Latin frm @ArmandDAngour Computational math frm @WolframResearch History frm @holland_tom @DrMichaelBonner Permalink 11:52 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb Voila, plus or minus a calculation error. Permalink 11:19 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ #RWRI proved that experienced people are uniquely capable of teaching a real world subject: doctor trains doctor, nurse trains nurse (& doctor), risk takers train young risk takers (not some nerd), accountant train budding accountants, thief trains thief, prostitute trains… Permalink 10:42 AM – 19 May 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 63: Something for those interested in Greek linguistics: misspellings shed light on contemporary pronunciation. This Greek text accompanies a Safaitic inscription of a man named Maṭr of the lineage of ṣabāḥ (صباح). But look how the tribal name is spelled. Permalink 5:12 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) To visualize the intricacy, see my comments #RWRI on negative prices via arbitrage/squeezes. @johncarlosbaez Permalink 10:02 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb We use negative probabilities in quant finance since probability is just a KERNEL inside an integral, rarely a “real thing” outside of binary payoffs. So long as *no arbitrage* is satisfied. Only thing that matters is (by scaling) ∫densities=1. Similar to negative prices in oil.   Permalink 10:00 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb 1) The taste of (cold) revenge is by far the most underrated human experience. Not for cowards. Not be good for society except when revenge does not lead to more revenge. 2) Written ~170 y ago. I’ve never read more limpid more recent page turner. #Lindy = #ergodic seller!   Permalink 8:58 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb By “find love” I meant “find love (in different categories of varying expected duration)”.   Permalink 8:22 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb I like the peer-review system. It is necessary, but never sufficient. Also depends what you call “peers”. Peer-review of decision science papers in psychology is worthless. Permalink 8:12 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb THE DEATH OF ACADEMIA: peer-review creates citation rings of high ignorance. The epidemiological models developed by @stephen_wolfram, his son, & @dzviovich in 1 or 2 afternoons were light years ahead of models by academia w/zillions of “peer reviewed” crap. As to finance… Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb The Monsanto days are back: $$ buy science!   Permalink 5:00 PM – 15 May 2020

@dvassallo I’m from Malta (left 10yrs ago), and when people ask me how’s work culture in the US, this is what’s different.   Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 May 2020

@nntaleb The main function of a conference is to get a job, find love, corner potential customers during parties, or get a subsidized (or tax efficient) vacation. Content is merely a side effect. Online conferences need something else. Permalink 8:26 AM – 15 May 2020

@HietanenPaavo 2 I’d assume this is partially of what Prof @nntaleb means when he says “Govts don’t shut down economy, people do” Fins export business is worth 92 billion euros (article above)   Permalink 1:05 AM – 15 May 2020

@nntaleb This is how Umberto Eco’s library looked. Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb Glad @RaminNasibov corrected. Umberto Eco’s library was 1) light, 2) modern w/white shelves (based on Ikea’s Billy), 3) comfortable and inviting. You felt like wanting to spend every Sunday afternoon there. This is dark, musty, uncomfortable, and … has too many books.   Permalink 11:33 AM – 14 May 2020

@birdxi1988 The simulation shows that even with R0<1, an epidemic may still be thriving somewhere in the country. I think ⁦@nntaleb⁩ mentioned this in January,as an average,R0 is biased downward because the outbreaks have fat tail due to “super-spreader“ events.   Permalink 10:01 AM – 14 May 2020