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NN Taleb & Naval Ravikant | LA Blockchain Conference

10/13 Updated to include entire conversation.
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LOCALISM, Identity Politics, Banksy, Kashoggi, Berlin, Crying In Public, Boulder, Reputation, Popper, Minority Rule, Kasparov, Pinker, Ketogenesis | Twitter

@highnoontide This perfectly explains why @nntaleb once suggested Nobel Prize in Economics be banned. https://twitter.com/j_lovering/status/1049283173866192896   Permalink 9:33 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ethical Inquiries and Discussions pic.twitter.com/dC4Fscoiuv Permalink 8:36 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@spyrosmakrid 2/ People who consumed a diet high in meat and dairy had a 22% decreased risk of heart attack and a 25% decreased risk of early death (28 Aug. 18) https://www.escardio.org/The-ESC/Press-Office/Press-releases/Components-of-heart-healthy-diet-may-differ-from-what-was-previously-thought   #Forecasting #Diet ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UaahWBBj0i”>  pic.twitter.com/UaahWBBj0i Permalink 6:11 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic All this misses the point about SCALE, a la @nntaleb – “LOCALISM: At Fed level, libertarian; state, Republican; local, Democrat; family/friends, socialist”. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1048946544551100416   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb If you want someone to read ALL your tweets, block him or her. Permalink 2:12 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Deleted tweets are more informational than regular ones. https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1049039025821155328   Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Just lecktured the Hackers Congress (Prague) via Skype that distorts my face. https://twitter.com/austinmcraig/status/1048981750045528064   Permalink 1:57 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Banksy provides a perfect illustration of the potency of *via negativa*. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/1048635864585310208   Permalink 8:44 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb So it is easy to eliminate Kashoggi because he has no tribal links, people who would seek revenge. https://twitter.com/ZJoureir/status/1048934611299045376   Permalink 7:31 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb ABSTRACT UNIVERSALISMS AND PSEUDOIDENTITIES 1) People conflate differences between groups and difference between individuals. 2) Identity politics leads to stereotyping, no different from racial profiling. pic.twitter.com/CbUVmCrZbn Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In Turkish, Kaşıkçı means spoon maker. Permalink 6:53 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An uninteresting twist to the Khashoggi story is that Khashoggi is not a Saudi Arab, but a Turkish-Syrian name. Permalink 6:39 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #antifragile #tesla #blackswanmobile pic.twitter.com/VOAcJ6Q5xf Permalink 6:31 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ethics pic.twitter.com/vkSUEHZv7H Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that people engage shills thinking their arguments will change their minds. You see it with Monsanto shills, with agents of Saudi Barbaria, etc. Permalink 3:57 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@acommonlawyer I’m with @nntaleb on this: income post-public office should not exceed that available in public office. Otherwise, post-office income for previous incumbents ≈ implicit bribe for current incumbent; “stay on our good side and we’ll make you rich when you’re done being president”. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1048874388874022912   Permalink 3:01 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@HsenAndil I started recently translating Le Petit Prince into Lebanese. This is still a first draft, in terms of the script/orthography, and the translation itself (wording). Feedback from natives would be highly appreciated. Here’s a link to the first chapter: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erV9jAtNdys82F2hy1LAB43BmSW-DK6x/view?usp=sharing   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/T4rwjDfWwy”>  pic.twitter.com/T4rwjDfWwy Permalink 1:46 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb How you can tell a Saudi government shill, even without tracking his funding. Some idiots engage him. https://twitter.com/aliShihabi/status/1048684171072327681   Permalink 4:55 PM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Solution with probabilistic approach pic.twitter.com/hKDYjfc5Xc Permalink 6:07 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Note that there is no such thing as a “thinker” who is not a FREE (that is independent) thinker. Gabish? https://twitter.com/sirchappyquiddi/status/1048532476157677568   Permalink 4:22 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A partisan’s (or an ideologue’s) assessment of a situation doesn’t depend on the situation. Permalink 4:01 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Note: I systematically block people with cute remarks on math problems. Permalink 4:34 PM – 5 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A math problem a la @CutTheKnotMath for the weekend. Courtesy Dan Sitaru, the Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/F6HdFanbgM Permalink 3:39 PM – 5 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @Mises #humanaction #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/gx0bCzIGF8 Permalink 7:43 AM – 5 Oct 2018

@marciadabliu “Specifically, Brazil and Argentina often use more than 4.5 kilograms of glyphosate per hectare – three times as much as when GM soya was introduced some 20 years ago.” https://twitter.com/testbiotech/status/1047904942097412097   Permalink 2:16 AM – 5 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, and idiots in labels. Permalink 9:48 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, and idiots in labels. Permalink 9:48 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Too many people think in labels. Permalink 12:50 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is a prime example the genetic fallacy. The internet was founded as a military application. Please avoid sloppy thinking. https://twitter.com/Yehesz/status/1047808343530565634   Permalink 4:25 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The value of a degree is in its RELIABILITY: when ill in a foreign country you can bet the MD has minimal competence. Like a driver’s license. HUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE degrees offer no reliability. If you don’t know what you get, degrees are worthless. The market punishes BS Permalink 12:29 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The value of a degree is in its RELIABILITY: when ill in a foreign country you can bet the MD has minimal competence. Like a driver’s license. HUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE degrees offer no reliability. If you don’t know what you get, degrees are worthless. The market punishes BS Permalink 12:29 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb (Madrid) Permalink 1:50 PM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Madeid (a brief stop) pic.twitter.com/DxGqa8n3gk Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Please note that I only do book lecktchurs when the book is out in the language, even then. I don’t do book lecktchurs for a living. I prefer technical lectchurs on probability. Permalink 10:13 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Nietzsche #antifragile pic.twitter.com/4ShhS0mDAQ Permalink 9:27 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@asymmetricinfo 1) Almost everyone seems to be missing that this was tax arbitrage, not tax evasion. He was converting estate taxed money into income-taxed income. The size of the net benefit is somewhat uncertain because the conversion lost the benefits of tax deferral until death. Permalink 8:06 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb To understand decentralization/localism. + DC : much higher real estate/hotels prices than most large cities in the US. + Berlin: much cheaper real estate/hotels prices than most large cities in Germany. https://twitter.com/Evansrahal/status/1047476596112801792   Permalink 6:40 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Optimisation -> Fragility ‘I won Olympic Gold but can’t climb stairs’ – Amy Williams, 36 https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/winter-sports/45714174   Permalink 2:11 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ich bin ein Berliner. https://twitter.com/kungler/status/1047162090815991813   Permalink 9:23 PM – 2 Oct 2018

@kungler Los geht’s mit @nntaleb #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/vauhTwYwIU Permalink 9:31 AM – 2 Oct 2018

@nntaleb No human is more Mediterranean in demeanor, temperament & appearance than Irene Pappas. https://twitter.com/pascal_dorian/status/1044177867784032256   Permalink 5:00 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Page 17 (2 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #gfc #cbot #popper #mises #nietzsche #gnomesofzurich #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/LQ1HJyaDSL Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Page 16 (1 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #gfc #cbot #popper #mises #nietzsche #gnomesofzurich #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/HsKuETuCX9 Permalink 1:15 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@dannyhakim Prominent academic journal issues correction conceding that that “Monsanto Co. didn’t fully disclose its involvement” in articles declaring glyphosate safe. Raises latest questions of transparency in pesticide research. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/monsanto-s-role-in-roundup-safety-study-is-corrected-by-journal   Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Presented the new book to charlatans. The reaction (yellow) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Vq72bUo9JT”>  pic.twitter.com/Vq72bUo9JT Permalink 3:41 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb After the Macbook MacOS patch, even slower. @WolframResearch pic.twitter.com/hd1Ekt3h23 Permalink 2:54 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Last night I dreamed that I was given The job at the Federal Reserve. I walked in and announced that 1) every economist with an academic origin would be laid off, 2) every statistician who used “variance” in a research paper would be immediately terminated. Permalink 2:25 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@ggreenwald I always genuinely wonder: are DC foreign policy elites like @SamanthaJPower so inebriated with American Exceptionalism that they really believe it’s different when they do it, or do they know it’s the same but cynically view everyone as dupes? Probably differs for each offender. Permalink 11:39 AM – 30 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Duesseldorf The German Publisher put me in a hotel with a fully functional bathtub on the balcony. If these things don’t make you a traditionalist, I don’t know what will. pic.twitter.com/MuvfG17jRy Permalink 6:49 AM – 30 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://mobile.twitter.com/robkopacz/status/1046133861225246721   Permalink 1:49 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The only person who showed spine inthe episode was Lindsey Graham. I hate him. He is a neocon. He is an interventionist. But he showed spine. Permalink 12:44 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb This is not a job interview for auditor in chief at the local utility company. This is a lifetime apptmnt as a justice in the Supreme Court. It entails tough decisions. Very tough decisions. Gabish? Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1046106181683556354   Permalink 11:45 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1046106181683556354   Permalink 11:45 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-syria/syria-foreign-minister-tells-u-n-country-is-ready-for-refugee-return-idUSKCN1M90IA   Permalink 11:09 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The point is that it is not a good idea for a journalist to abet fraudulent information, particularly that I an vindictive enouth to make their lives miserable for decades. Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Answer: A 4 leg version of Jensen’s inequality. pic.twitter.com/DonVIDZtMB Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Joe Wiesenthal, @TheStalwart why are you spreading fake student evaluations by the anonymous @quantian1? Unethical. Permalink 4:04 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Lshghl bekassel l kifr. In praise of idleness. https://twitter.com/blebnene/status/1045947259937050625   Permalink 2:40 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1045927760277966848   Permalink 12:58 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Some Saturday morning Math in the style of @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/nrf10gZST3 Permalink 12:02 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) Not to mention that the employer of @rmslim is the @Middleeastinst paid by Persian Gulf states to promote Salafism & help destroy minorities & localists in Syria. In other words @rmslim is a PAID propagandist for evil Salafi states and some idiots unknowlingly engage her. Permalink 11:46 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The problem of Near East conflicts is that those with skin in the game have been sacrified for the sake of the principles of those with no skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 11:40 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) Someone sitting in the comfort of a think tank office (with a fridge full of yoghurt drinks) dictating what aid people on the ground in Syria should receive in order to satisfy her grand principles. #SkinintheGame. https://twitter.com/rmslim/status/1045922250015330304   Permalink 11:39 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@rorysutherland From @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CpJ1T0nUqF Permalink 1:36 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Some of the commentators (#idiots) here don’t get that the two statements: 1) believing that K is a victim and 2) believing that K is weaker than expected are compatible. Gabish? Permalink 10:06 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) I had to coin a word for someone flowing moral values backward in time, 25 centuries: RETROACTIVE BIGOTEERING. https://twitter.com/ProfSimonton/status/1045505514988138496   Permalink 9:34 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The only thing a college teacher of classics can reliably teach you is to become a college teacher of classics. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/923848138493956096   Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) One thing we know: Professors of Spartan history (like this bloke) are no Spartans. The heroes of history were not virtue-signaling library rats. The last person to learn classical values from is career “classicists”. You learn about doers from doers. https://twitter.com/ProfSimonton/status/1045504047879356417   Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/773574603205730305   Permalink 8:02 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Crying in public because you saw atrocities and feel sorry for someone else is fine; crying in public because you feel sorry for yourself (& implore others to feel sorry for you) is the greatest marker of weakeness. Permalink 7:18 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb SYMMETRY A soldier was accused of stealing someone’s food and eating it. The commander offered the following Solomonic deal. They kill the soldier and look into his stomach. If there is no food as described by the accuser, the accuser is put to death. Permalink 3:22 PM – 27 Sep 2018

@The_Cyrenian Every major UK newspaper also had “irrefutable evidence” that Iraq had “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, too. A million people died because of that lie. The propaganda, bloodlust and war-mongering of you and your Atlantic Council masters never ends, it seems. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1045189449770881024   Permalink 11:05 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Does anyone have an idea of government funding for economic “research”? Grants to universities, etc. Permalink 7:57 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nicolas_sommet The Spirit Level has been cited ≈10K times (≈700 times in 2018). The book is straightforward: It uses cross-sectional data to show negative effects of #IncomeInequality on health. The problem: It does NOT hold up to scrutiny. Thread pic.twitter.com/WWueTIeQN7 Permalink 7:12 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this moron that 1) progress = substituting what works RELIABLY better to what doesn’t work as well, 2) too fast a rate of evolution cancels out past gains. https://twitter.com/BorisMozer/status/1045307515452477440   Permalink 6:59 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@ggreenwald Left unaddressed in this deeply moving tweet: why didn’t Obama admin “cut off aid” to the Saudis as it destroyed Yemen? More to the point, why did you feed Saudis with arms & intel to help them do it? Perhaps because you have “no concern for loss of life”? https://twitter.com/SamanthaJPower/status/1045077050409848832   Permalink 4:20 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb OK, many roads… pic.twitter.com/RruU6HwY0j Permalink 7:33 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb MATH DU JOUR For those who survived the morning riddle, a yuugely interesting one. [Please avoid cute nonmath remarks: someone blocks all authors of polluting remarks on my MathTwitter feed and I cannot do anything about it]. pic.twitter.com/JmOJu74Y1c Permalink 6:57 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci produces BS about anything in sight, can he know anything about operational stoicism? https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 2:18 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Note: ALL authors of snide remarks on MathTwitter get automatically blocked. I can’t unblock and can’t stop it. Sorry for the inconvenience. Permalink 10:44 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My approach pic.twitter.com/I0DMdhJWgl Permalink 10:38 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The IYI class & the conviction by these sub-idiots that they are unconditionally smarter than practitioners. Why Stiglitz still unaware he helped wreck FNMAe and Venezuela. “He [Volker] is the best central banker ever…” “Is he smart like us?”, Stiglitz asked Rogoff. pic.twitter.com/UhbGJ98CQI Permalink 10:20 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb @Jonassibony can help with the Semitic root of 3ta pic.twitter.com/WzFrLO7t7D Permalink 9:17 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone arabized Michael Atiyah’s father’s name from Atiyyé in Lebanese to the Arabic Atiyah, when he converted from Greek Orthodox to to Protestant. The idea of Arabism is to kill localism in all its forms. https://twitter.com/EricJagr68/status/1044951476584501248   Permalink 7:12 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The reason we don’t use chalk was initially linked to the asbestos problem. Bring back the chalkboard. You can also use the chalk when deadlifting. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1044950108129947648   Permalink 7:06 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb A math morning riddle to distract ourselves from Atiyah’s proof. Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/3NOgE1RBTJ Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@naval Talking live with @nntaleb at @goBLOCKCON on Oct 11. We’ll cover my favorite book of 2018, Skin in the Game, and weave in some crypto. https://www.goblockcon.com/   Permalink 1:53 PM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Institutions don’t like scandals. They are weak. It suffices to have someone STUBBORN like me keep pounding them to fire someone. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972152554556657664   Permalink 11:17 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Excellent News! Henry I. Miller is no longer at the Hoover Institution. Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Kevin Folta (of the Monsanto connection) partook of the smear campaign against anti-Monsanto activist @RachelsNews when she was 15. Let us all applaud Rachel’s courage (she is now 18). https://globalnews.ca/news/2414720/documents-reveal-canadian-teenager-the-target-of-gmo-lobby/   https://twitter.com/RachelsNews/status/1044639812844539904   Permalink 10:36 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I do not give up. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/960317570300735488   Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The best test to figure out if people s.a. Mark Lynas or Tamar Haspel are shills: they support BOTH GMOs and Glyphosate –both of which benefit Monsanto. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1044560980758462465   Permalink 7:28 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@_erratica There are designations, like “economist”, “prostitute”, or “consultant”, for which additional characterization doesn’t add information. N N Taleb @nntaleb The Bed of Procrustes. ~ Permalink 10:14 PM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 4) “My understanding is: the LEFT stands against exploitation & coersion of the weak. The chief exploitation of the public isn’t corporations that go bust; it’s the permanence of rent-seeking fake experts such as Krugman, Bernanke & the neocons who inflict risks on others.” Permalink 3:16 PM – 24 Sep 2018

@ektrit Talebism @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Edourdoo/status/1044272191863427072   Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I found “chantage moral” in French which works in some contexts. Permalink 10:12 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR How do you translate ”Bi rabbe7 jmilé” from Leb? Genuinely failed. Permalink 9:58 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@garyruskin When companies bury evidence of harm and pollute the scientific literature with ghostwriting, as the Monsanto Papers show, why should consumers trust them? https://trib.in/2xzELgf   @GregTrotterTrib Background on the #MonsantoPapers: http://bit.ly/2mJSyvq   Permalink 9:50 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@jessefelder In 2006, Nobel Prize–winning economist Joseph Stiglitz praised the economic policies of Hugo Chávez. The Venezuelan president ran one of the “leftist governments” in Latin America that were unfairly “castigated for being populist.” https://www.city-journal.org/joseph-stiglitz-venezuela-16181.html   ht @DiMartinoBooth Permalink 9:32 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb What do we know about David Rothschild @DavMicRot ? He is incompetent in his own subject matter, statistics and pol forecasting. https://twitter.com/davmicrot/status/1043971493334536192   Permalink 9:19 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) Many are actually IN FAVOR of having “pundits” inflict risks on others with impunity”: those are members of the bureaucratic state. Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of “risk analysis” (debate in Las Vegas). https://twitter.com/fullnelson69/status/1044214702505697284   Permalink 6:31 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) These “leftists” even agreed that”: The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators) Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries Permalink 6:15 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message: + Localism, bottom-up + Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies + No enterprise without #Skininthegame + No abstract scale-free universalism A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist “left” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1043980243843743744   Permalink 5:41 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Localism and Skin in the Game. Boulder pic.twitter.com/9lFtLw28vE Permalink 2:47 PM – 23 Sep 2018

@VergilDen 18 yrs of winnings wipped out in one day. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1043888981354647553   Permalink 8:58 AM – 23 Sep 2018

@nntaleb People don’t learn. Skin in the game has the attribute of removing bad drivers from the system. Systems learn by removing. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1043814843814490113   Permalink 4:19 AM – 23 Sep 2018

@nntaleb So it looks concave (over the long run) 5 reps outperforms the combinations… Permalink 3:50 PM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The problem with performance metrics. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/mehdi_ir_dc/status/1043518161826525184   Permalink 8:17 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The idea is to see on which side of Jensen’s inequality: (locally) convex or concave? pic.twitter.com/XkX0qLQIcl Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Nothing more exhilarating than the press! Just the mental energy required to push the metal over your head. Now let f(.) be the benefit & x the # of reps; ignoring injury risks: f(1)+f(9) > (<) 2 f(5) ? i.e., 2 sets of 5 better or worse than 1 RM + 9 RM? Explain pic.twitter.com/Qi5exdub2e Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb This was written 21 years ago: “professionals” mistaking probability for expectation. From Fooled by Randomness pic.twitter.com/kwzbT2KWLF Permalink 5:49 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: Where the 3-4 Population Tests (left) are the analog to what we know in econometrics as GRANGER CAUSALITY (right) [ignore wikipedia, see scholarpedia below] http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Granger_causality   Meaning we can use cross-entropy metrics! cc: @iosif_lazaridis @PZalloua ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cuDcw7kl96″>  pic.twitter.com/cuDcw7kl96 Permalink 4:36 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Which explains why nobody interested in finance should ever follow twitter finance. https://twitter.com/StockCats/status/1043122635926896645   Permalink 4:18 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@wrathofgnon A perfectly medieval aphorism from @nntaleb. One of my favorites. From the book The Bed Of Procrustes. pic.twitter.com/KNlIWZq6BX Permalink 12:21 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb For the hot hand trust the experienced or the real mathematical probabilist. Not the semi-knowlegeable psycholophaster. Half scientists a la @r_thaler are b***tters. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964657750881046528?s=21   Permalink 4:17 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Unapologetic style… https://twitter.com/BiankaB12/status/1043216606594326529   Permalink 1:03 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Refusing the filter of “experience” is negating evolution. We didn’t make it through zillion of years without helpful statistical intuitions. Permalink 12:18 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb It turned out that the “evidence” showing no hot hand in sports is a fiction. Experience trumps pseudostatistics used by social scientists. https://twitter.com/chrisjkuntz/status/1043200573783396352   Permalink 11:13 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@black_swan_man Page 15 (2 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #HumanAction @Mises #nudge #Keynesian #IYIs @R_Thaler @paulkrugman pic.twitter.com/1i4AFYBcFT Permalink 6:05 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@black_swan_man Page 14 (1 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #HumanAction @Mises #nudge #Keynesian #IYIs @R_Thaler @paulkrugman pic.twitter.com/wRNB6vCWvY Permalink 6:03 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb New Title, book almost done. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sSCAxhGDNS”>  pic.twitter.com/sSCAxhGDNS Permalink 2:13 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Market Is “Sandbagging Us” – Mark Spitznagel Sees “Deeper & Deeper” Crashes Ahead | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-18/market-sandbagging-us-mark-spitznagel-sees-deeper-deeper-crashes-ahead   Permalink 10:44 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If you need your reputation more than I need mine, I own you. Otherwise you own me. Permalink 10:02 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb In BS vending by tagging some pseudoscientific psychological explanation to a wrong empirical fact, nobody beats Pinker. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1042784921398456320   Permalink 9:42 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Comparing the old Macbook pro (left) to the new one (right) using @WolframResearch’s Mathematica. Looks like the new one is SLOWER for Monte Carlo simulations. pic.twitter.com/cn3i22NXQi Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb How evil firms use mobs https://www.globalresearch.ca/monsanto-accused-of-hiring-army-of-trolls-to-silence-online-dissent-court-papers/5588396   Permalink 6:40 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) Note that evil corporations use social media to bully critics. Monsanto’s smear campaign against scientists is based on internet mobs organized by @KetchumPR. Permalink 6:12 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If social media scares you, change profession. Now. You can no longer be a scholar or scientist if you don’t have f*** you money or f*** you attitude. Otherwise you’re at the mercy of mob lynching. Ian Buruma abt pple “not convicted by the judiciary but by social media”: pic.twitter.com/sfl7QOb0K9 Permalink 5:57 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Three slides that summarize the problems with risk. https://twitter.com/mZargham/status/1022110281001050112   Permalink 3:16 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My greatest fear is to have someone who just as Soros who got Popper’s Open Society exactly backwards & funded an “Open Society Inst.” for a Platonic bureaucrat-led #skininthegame-free monoculture, starts an *Incerto Institute* promoting Kantian scale-free Universalism. Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Which is the reason I hate interviews; they try to force you to reduce a book to a fortune cookie-compatible expression. https://twitter.com/daviduvaydov/status/1042463961826947075   Permalink 1:47 PM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Minority rule https://twitter.com/justinraimondo/status/1042427028094382080   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Minority rule https://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/1042427028094382080   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid The major finding of the paper The forecasting accuracy of the best ML method was lower than the worst of Stat ones while half the ML methods were less accurate than a random walk was contrary to the beliefs of the Neural Networks journal that rejected it using a false reason pic.twitter.com/hpItW4OaKL Permalink 5:25 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The reason you can’t trust the press is PRECISELY because they give you the illusion of truth by getting the facts right. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb People in Lebanon used to rely on timber for heating/cooking (& tax payment to the Ottomans). Fossil fuel allowed the greening across places. It is bad (side effects), but one should NEVER represent a partial picture like this shoddy sensationalist @FranckGenauseau Permalink 4:43 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) Cedar story is missing the success of new growth across the mountain. 2) @FranckGenauze has never heard of cherry picking/sensationalism/sucker alarmism. pic.twitter.com/iL1mnw7Y0i Permalink 4:37 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Pictures of Leb in 1900 vs today. Clear reforestation. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1028613123157237760   Permalink 4:09 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb MISREPRESENTATION of STATISTICAL PICTURE Journos @FranckGenauzeauare clueless & cherrypicking. Lebanon is currently greening, >150,000 additional Cedar trees at higher level plus rising treeline. The planet is undergoing yuuge reforestation. This demoralizes environmentalists https://twitter.com/FranckGenauzeau/status/1042357182023520256   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@ilSaggiatoreEd Le letture del Ministro #Tria? ‘Skin in the game’ di @nntaleb, dall’undici ottobre in libreria grazie al vostro editore preferito. pic.twitter.com/4saQ9lUBTd Permalink 2:09 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@alexisevdox Great Psychology Today article on #AI and #MachineLearning. If it improves as a result of being faced with and solving problems, it’s #antifragile. Love how @nntaleb’s brilliant concept has invaded the lexicon. https://pos.li/2aferk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1QzirulIgq”>  pic.twitter.com/1QzirulIgq Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Math Problem du Jour. Courtesy: Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/iiKnwv0sxc Permalink 2:55 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I meant these principles https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1038934453974790144   Permalink 2:25 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PS I am not a libertarian but a localist, i.e. libertarian for higher levels of central government. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1042047309478014976   Permalink 2:22 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1rst stage when I read Hayek. 2nd stage when I read “Nudge” by @CassSunstein & @R_thaler & saw it was pseudoscience in industrial scale & something had to be done about the class of people I later coined “IYIS” (Intellectuals Yet Idiots). 3rd stage w/the Syrian war https://twitter.com/LPNational/status/1042145030406844416   Permalink 2:03 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@mistermircea Actually @nntaleb spells it out in Ch. 17 of Antifragile “The minute I was bored with a book or subject I moved to another one […] The trick is to be bored with a specific book, rather than the act of reading. Avoidance of boredom is the only worthy mode of action.” Permalink 11:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/ClYmMzeuX7 Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The division in politics can be summarized as between + Embedded, complexity-minded, multiscale/fractal localists (politics as an ecology/complex adaptive system) + Abstract one-dimensional universalists & monoculturalists (politics as a top-down engineering project) Permalink 6:46 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Note: When Arabo-Sunni-Islamists want to smear the LOCALISTS & minorities who want bottom-up self-determination, s.a. Christians, Shiites & oth minorities they use tags such as “right wing”, “sectarian”, “fascist”, etc. (Look at behavior of low-IQ fraud-propagandist @shadihamid) Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Friends, here is a program for denesting radicals using @WolframResearch’s Mathematica. It doesn’t work here but should in simpler cases. http://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/980264   Permalink 5:23 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The first vol of the INCERTO, Fooled by Randomness, was written ~20 years ago. https://twitter.com/aleksndr_a/status/1041960260846665728   Permalink 3:54 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@ejames_c Hilarious and good: the scent of bad psychology. https://putanumonit.com/2018/09/07/the-scent-of-bad-psychology/   (My favourite bit is probably the one with Nicholas Nassem Taleb’s Grandma). Permalink 7:12 PM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Again, I have NOTHING against chess players. Some have done great things (Nick Patterson, cc: @iosif_lazaridis), many traders, etc. But I have pbm allowing someone who is JUST a chess player to both fail elementary reasoning & use chess for credibility. https://twitter.com/BurntOutCase/status/1041693505326866433   Permalink 7:31 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr @Kasparov63 fails logical thinking/meta at many levels. He derives his “expertise” & fame not from intellectual contribution or risk wizardry, but from moving w/ B&W pieces. So we are entitled to wonder abt transferability of such knowledge to risk. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041528325037064192   Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@normonics If we abolish the electoral college We should also abolish the union 50 free states to manage their own business I say keep the electoral college, a beautiful piece of complex systems engineering enabling multiscale federalism Permalink 5:29 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Nicky the robot from Nicosia. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1041657820523978753   Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Lunch in Northern Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/dqiExl3rpD Permalink 4:11 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 @nntaleb Mr. Kasparov, unlike you Dr. Taleb is a man of integrity. Assad’s father actually blew up his home in one war years ago. But Taleb has principles and knows that these jihadist mercenaries from all over are ruining the area. Permalink 3:02 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr Gary Kasparov, @Kasparov63, I am currently in North Lebanon as I am writing these lines. Would you agree to come LIVE here if Assad is removed? Yes/No please. I am really fed up with bullshitters who don’t pay a price to the consequences of their actions. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041533709369991168   Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The only way you can be ethical & famous is if you use your reach to expose frauds in society that are *not* (yet) considered frauds & put your reputation at risk. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/naval/status/1041513555961438208   Permalink 1:22 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb As to numerical tricks pic.twitter.com/xLWf4VzMyu Permalink 12:58 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Bernanke mistook the risks accumulation that lead to the crisis for the “great moderation”, in other words got it backward. Anyone who takes him seriously has an mental problem. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1041384873989222400   Permalink 12:01 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Chabris has @cfchabris a study showing the memory of chess players being local to the game. Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Any systematic study? Permalink 3:54 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what’s the real life performance of chess players? How do they fare in, say science and business? Permalink 3:51 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb muzzled Permalink 12:26 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb To answer the usual idiot bringing up Popper https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037273239347703808   Permalink 11:45 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I thought chess players would think in more than one step. Before arguing whether “fascists” should be museled, How do you know if someone is “fascist” if you don’t let him express his opinions? …Or the best way to exercise fascism is to call people fascists to shut them up. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041376634446782467   Permalink 11:38 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb OK, there is a theorem for the proof of convergence. Herschfelds Convergence Theorem http://mathworld.wolfram.com/HerschfeldsConvergenceTheorem.html   Permalink 10:59 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@doshijatin 2/5 done ? Permalink 10:55 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1041301771556212737   Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb SUNDAY MATH RIDDLE, courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/x5ZGSxUMkD Permalink 4:32 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION The *phenomenology* of aging as at least partly from the asymmetry of 1) stuff you put into your body (risk of harm> risk of improvement), 2) the nonlinearity of its dose-response (large vs hormetic small dose). (This is 2 ½ years of meth) #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/6d17dO3osw Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Sep 2018

@Imamofpeace Some journalists lie even more than politicians. pic.twitter.com/J2Q2R15ICy Permalink 9:51 PM – 14 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen? My report *then*, to the Obama commission. All these talkers are still clueless about the reasons. https://www.academia.edu/37409070/Why_Did_The_Crisis_of_2008_Happen   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SXP8t3iaMo”>  pic.twitter.com/SXP8t3iaMo Permalink 2:44 AM – 14 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia for some araq and kebbe. pic.twitter.com/tK0b0gB4Hn Permalink 9:50 AM – 13 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Wrong. The Levant coastal areas spoke Greek not Aramaic. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1040190108782215170   Permalink 4:41 AM – 13 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Delenda MONSANTO. Thank you markets. Let the death spiral start. Bayer is down 30% over the past couple of months. There are >8000 lawsuits coming. Never ever build your business messing with science & smearing scientists. It all comes out. Monsanto shills are unprotected. pic.twitter.com/U00l6c2d1j Permalink 5:43 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3/ Friends, it is thrilling to see a group of rigorous & active Twitter pple correct a journalist on grounds of reason & rationality. The same happened when the Clev Clinic deleted some unempirical medical claims https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037518226278834177   Our crowd is swelling! Thanks @Twitter! Permalink 3:50 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb KETO DISCUSSION Ketogenesis doesn’t require low-carb consumption. Just infrequent feeding, and not too infrequent at that. Just skip breakfast. (Discussion around Antifragility and Convexity in Medicine) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   cc:@drjasonfung @MichaelSagnerMD @GuruAnaerobic ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sClNDVOb3c”>  pic.twitter.com/sClNDVOb3c Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb And the fool still doesn’t get that people insure the EFFECT not the CAUSE. Why is probability/risk so hard for journalists? https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1039946929214566403   Permalink 12:14 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The fact that ~½ taxes are paid by the 1% shd make anyone with ½ brain realize that there is a great deal of redistribution. In fact economists are just rent-seeking parasites w/no economic contribution and it is THEIR relatively high low-risk income that shd be redistributed Permalink 9:13 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb More evidence that economists don’t understand 1) humans, 2) redistribution & its side effects, 3) lack of envy on the part of noneconomists 4) much of anything else https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/1039326885136744449   Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb More Popper on the IYIs, the nudgers, the Platonic “experts”. Even gun control… pic.twitter.com/mt1XbtL9CZ Permalink 5:37 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The biggest irony is that what Soros calls his “Open Society” activity is about as un-Popperian as it gets. Permalink 4:45 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Karl Popper, in his Open Society, describes to a “T” the crowd of unelected patronizing “experts” who want to run the lives of people and call those who oppose them “populists”. Beautiful Plato vs Socrates passage. pic.twitter.com/gaTfAnSvZA Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I wonder how much money people have wasted paying for news & BS by journalists. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1039823401790189569   Permalink 3:51 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb You can even compute the time to COVFEFE, @QifaNabki https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/937035937485348865   Permalink 6:29 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Actually can be 31 characters and my answer is if you have only 30 and necessarily start with a letter. Permalink 6:21 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Elias, @QifaNabki the literary name is trigintuple or triacontad (30-tuple) in a 140 sized multiset, which should be (if you don’t start with a space) quite sizeable. pic.twitter.com/hhWmvaZ1cE Permalink 6:19 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Exercise in combinatorics. 1t step, use the English alphabet, 26 letters + space, ?,!,@,&, for a total of 30. 140 characters. Treat lower and upper case as equivalent. Second step, Markov Chain. add a ( under the condition that it closes before a period and that it closes. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1039674231380946944   Permalink 6:03 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principle 11: No public institution or agency should be created without an expiration date. pic.twitter.com/xlVD1RrYvD Permalink 4:13 PM – 11 Sep 2018

Jesse Norman, Hong Kong, Politics Under Complexity, Horrified, The New Yorker, McCain, Free Speech | Twitter

@nntaleb “Qui veut noyer son chien l’accuse de la rage”. Permalink 8:46 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb When a dominant, functionally monopolist technology company removes post by XYZ claiming it “removed posts by XYZ a Fascist/Conspiracy-Theorist/Misogynist”, read: It *labeled* XYZ a “Fascist/Conspiracy Theorist/Misogynist” so it could silence him/her. #Stalinist old trick. Permalink 8:16 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb On my long trip from HK to Northern Phoenician, reading Jesse Norman’s new book, promising read after his excccccccccccellent bio of Burke! Adam Smith: Father of Economics by Jesse Norman https://www.amazon.com/dp/0465061974/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_WK9LBb9SMVRMM   via @amazon Permalink 8:07 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Honk Kong: a city-state made by traders for traders. Permalink 7:05 PM – 10 Sep 2018

@NathanielATL Reading The Bed of Procrustes. From now on I’ll tell all my friends that @nntaleb is overrated. Will be fun to see who picks up on it. pic.twitter.com/am28f3qR2C Permalink 9:19 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@RonPaul Why Are We Siding With al-Qaeda? http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2018/september/10/why-are-we-siding-with-al-qaeda/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8Xa7ZbpKon”>  pic.twitter.com/8Xa7ZbpKon Permalink 6:16 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@wikileaks Hillary Clinton email: Israeli intelligence says collapse of Syria will spark a Sunni-Shiite war that will benefit #Israel https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/12172#efmBbqBf9   #Syria #Iran ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cdmw20bfAs”>  pic.twitter.com/cdmw20bfAs Permalink 5:37 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@OfficialSethu I’ve read this 5 times and each time it appears to make more sense than the last time. ‘Localising’ Principle 4 would be tricky. Mainly because politicians have etched themselves, and thereby their ‘theory>practice’ philosophy into EVERYTHING. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1038934453974790144   Permalink 5:27 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principles of Politics under Complexity (Thread) pic.twitter.com/VszqPkjFdQ Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb : What you’ve been saying for well over a decade, Nassim! https://twitter.com/erikbryn/status/1038761815784808449   Permalink 1:05 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@ptavega Good to know that amazon’s algo learned what is “non talebian” @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/VKZp4RXN3B Permalink 12:18 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid OECD published “Scenarios for the world economy to 2060” http://www.oecd.org/eco/growth/scenarios-for-the-world-economy-to-2060.htm#main_findings   What is the value of these scenarios given the uncertainty over a time span of over 40 years and the possibility of SINGULARITY occuring during this period Really NO learning http://oecdinsights.org/2014/02/12/how-accurate-are-oecd-forecasts/   Permalink 8:11 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Liberals seem to hate Assange as well as establishment Republicans. #FreeAssange https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/12307023966240768   Permalink 4:26 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@emiliodib Voici un projet de dictionnaire lexical français-libanais, ouvert d’accès et collaboratif : http://leliban.fr/francais-libanais/   C’est l’effet subsidiaire d’une prochaine publication en ces deux langues. Il contient actuellement ~5500 mots parmi les plus courants. Permalink 1:06 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@nntaleb (corrected and expanded) pic.twitter.com/nwRqyFJuwD Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb @yhazony Permalink 6:08 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principle 5 can be seen here: http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/SchellingsModelOfResidentialSegregation/   Permalink 6:00 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Politics under Complex Systems pic.twitter.com/QWRdDdCFhL Permalink 5:40 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation. Permalink 9:25 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan man is doing Extreme Value Theory! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1038074023949881344   Permalink 9:20 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Looking for an integral https://math.stackexchange.com/q/2908634/88078?stw=2   Permalink 6:44 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@Imamofpeace Syrian school before and after defeating ISIS. Beautiful. pic.twitter.com/cE94lQnUJq Permalink 8:14 PM – 6 Sep 2018

@LetsWorkHappy If you, like many other ppl, wished our podcast interview between @GadSaad & Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb was longer — check out their in-depth convo on The Saad Truth https://buff.ly/2wQ5TGi   Permalink 9:13 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb By Hammurabi’s symmetry, people issuing false accusations should be treated as if they committed the offense themselves. For instance, this @Xeni’s accusation of “death camps” should lead to @Xeni being treated as if she advocated death camps. Gabish? Permalink 6:56 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 The crowd sourcing of anti-BS is something fundamentally new. All you need is a critical number of dedicated folks with the knowledge base to apply that knowledge. The “experts” (or Elites) are extremely threatened by this bottom up approach. Permalink 5:54 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb A simple picture that explains the area ACL Anatolia-Caucasus-Levant as one single historical group, and as a separate category. cc:@PZalloua pic.twitter.com/bwRPX9obsg Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Cleveland Clinic deleted the statement. There is a statistical rigor police on twitter; you could fool the NYT or the NewYorker but can’t BS on Twitter with impunity. Thank you friends members of the Anti-BS vending brigade. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037302790001967110   Permalink 6:49 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Cleveland Clinic deleted the statement. There is a statistical rigor police on twitter; you could fool the NYT or the NewYorker but can’t BS on Twitter with impunity. Thank you friends members of the Anti-BS vending brigade. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037302790001967110   Permalink 6:49 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I meant he or she. Permalink 3:19 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb We can assert that the “insider” who wrote the NYT Op Ed, assuming he exists, is a neocon. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1037463717607301120   Permalink 3:14 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2- “Modernity’s double punishment is to make both age prematurely and live longer”. Bed of Procustes Permalink 1:54 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb AGING Thread. We are the first society in which being an elder is not indicative of superior fitness. We are also one of the very few societies in which being an elder does not bring a higher social status. Permalink 1:16 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb When Latin was dropped by the Catholic church, while other Abrahamic religions retained holy tongues, Catholicism collapsed -perhaps independently. Meanwhile, pple in fastest growing religion pray in classical Arabic a tongue <20% understand & < 4% speak. in #FooledbyRandomness pic.twitter.com/IZXbzNVcbE Permalink 5:10 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb These clinics need some adult supervision — I mean some statistical supervision. The claim below is about as bogus as it gets. https://twitter.com/clevelandclinic/status/1037285208964227072   Permalink 4:33 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb These clinics need some adult supervision — I mean some statistical supervision. The claim below is about as bogus as it gets. https://twitter.com/clevelandclinic/status/1037285208964227072   Permalink 4:33 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Never invoke Popper’s argument against intolerance when you tag people as “Nazis”,”fascist”, or “somethingist” in order to be intolerant against them. Never. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037130329742557185   Permalink 2:36 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Total nonsense: the idea in #SkinIntheGame about the Popper-Godel metaproblem: those whose platform is against democracy should not be allowed to get there using democracy …much like Salafis in Europe. Shd not be an argument to exclude pple you demonize as “Nazis”. Gabish? https://twitter.com/morgancox_uk/status/1037124185447981056   Permalink 5:08 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@Mike2McNeil pic.twitter.com/NUM2i0qzw0 Permalink 2:25 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@Cernovich John McCain was a butcher and warmonger with infamous temper tantrums and fits of rage. Look at how his legacy is being rewritten. He’s magically a human rights activist and elder statesman. As @nntaleb observed (paraphrased), “If the news is fake, imagine how bad history is.” Permalink 2:21 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Horrified. Almost nothing studied in sociology will hold when students reach the age of 30. Everything in Latin will stay. Greek government, what are you destroying? https://twitter.com/LuisBun/status/1037078515533979649   Permalink 1:55 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Hello @CreateSpace, why was Roger Makhlouf’s @lebaneselingui1 Lebanese-English dictionary banned and removed from @amazon ? He was told he violated “terms of service”. Which terms of service? https://www.amazon.com/Lebanese-English-Lexicon/dp/1718086202   Permalink 9:49 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Devitt is an impressive mind. But there is something abt an 80 year old philosopher dressed like a teenager. By the #LindyEffect there is some type of gravitas, dignitas, and decorum that comes with the offices of philosophers, magistrates, bishops, doctors, & scholars. https://twitter.com/StathisPsillos/status/1036990281604837377   Permalink 8:45 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I will give a video lecktchur. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1036975922233204736   Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The best thing The NewYorker did to Bannon is disinvite him. Much better than debating him as he can’t lose that debate. Information is #Antifragile. pic.twitter.com/oZK9IgV3SP Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb And the smear with “death camp” narrative migh be actually debunked (along with the ethics of @Xeni) should one hear from Bannon expressing his own ideas. https://twitter.com/xeni/status/1036963792381456384   Permalink 6:41 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb TheNewYorker disinviting Bannon means the following: 1- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they vary from those as presented by the media, or 2- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they surprise people as less dangerous than what they expected. Permalink 6:38 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@urtatses OPEN INSCRIPTIONS! 10th NOVEMBER, Basque C. Discussing @nntaleb ideas w/ @GuruAnaerobic, @jacoporomei, @Ekaitzsaies… Interested DM me https://twitter.com/Ekaitzsaies/status/1024724342989639681   Permalink 5:22 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb ANSWER: It is a marker of fattailedness. Distributions in the Subexponential class don’t have exponential moments. pic.twitter.com/9zp7h1tQQy Permalink 5:11 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@oldlevantine Thank you @nntaleb @Decafquest #EyalZisser #BatYeor https://www.amazon.com/Lebanons-Jewish-Community-Fragments-Arrested/dp/3319996665/ref=sr_1_6?ie=UTF8&qid=1536061696&sr=8-6&keywords=franck+salameh   Permalink 4:53 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid An equally important problem to new medical findings invalidating previous ones https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1035875459119173632   are serious mistakes and the underestimation of uncertainty in the diagnostic process (See Forecasting, uncertainty and risk in medical “SCIENCE”) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207017301346   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Z1I3meYENW”>  pic.twitter.com/Z1I3meYENW Permalink 1:16 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr Erickson you are ignorant. Dangerously clueeeless https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4?source=linkShare-f138bf5466fe-1536013559   Permalink 3:28 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@kri_tiker „They [newspapers] lie with right facts; a novelist says the truth with wrong facts“ — @nntaleb #quoteoftheday Permalink 3:02 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Figure out what this absence of moment generating function is the marker of & why? Quite central. @ProbFact https://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/1036709206450163714   Permalink 3:02 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@KafkasCastle1 @nntaleb convexity & optionality epitomised in one building https://twitter.com/Arch_Revival_/status/1036712184905183232   Permalink 2:34 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Pagan holiday of Christmas may actually originate from Northern Syria, the area betw Emesa and Heliopolis-Baalbeck (Sol Invictus), brought to Rome w/Domna, around where the Obama-McCain-Qaeda rebels are making these statements. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sol_Invictus   @EHSANI22 Permalink 1:16 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@RudyHavenstein I love that @nntaleb especially goes after my two main pet peeves: the chickenhawk think-tank neocon warmonger brigade, and the IYI inbred econ-cult, and all their bankster-shill fanboys. Plus he calls out Saudi Barbaria, which I call ‘ISIS with a monarchy.’ https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1011972847718154243   Permalink 11:26 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I played the game “will reproduce/not reproduce” below (on psychological & social science “findings” published in Science/Natchur that turn out to be BS. Got 95% right using the simple metric: would it make sense to grandmother? Try it. #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/voysnoop/status/1036544389487755264   Permalink 8:35 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb #LudicFallacy Permalink 8:27 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Fini la gauche et la droite ? Et si le nouveau clivage de nos vies politiques se faisait entre Grecs et Ro… http://po.st/EP2nVl   via @po_st Permalink 3:45 PM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I am tired hearing my anti-war, anti-interventionism, libertarian-localist & liberal-but-anti-pseudoliberal friends voicing dissent at the deification of Senator McCain. The bottom line is that 1) he is gone & 2) there is no *prominent* obsessive warmonger replacement. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@ScaleStartup one does NOT have to *support* trump in order to be against authoritarian-vietue-signalling-socialism It is not a binary question, despite what kasparov et al leftists would have you believe Permalink 7:37 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is very well trained in Stalinist methods: pathologize, punish then criminalize dissent. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1035981917055840259   Permalink 7:09 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb + IF ONLY those scientific results that are NOT offensive to certain activist groups get published, “published” science will collapse into propaganda w/o any participant noticing + PLOS has played a dirty rule in past w/GMOs, withdrawing Op-Ed under pressure from Monsanto shills https://twitter.com/meade6487/status/1035619756831920132   Permalink 7:02 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@NewEricHoffer This falls in line with a lot of points by @nntaleb . The art is better when people do have a day job. https://twitter.com/clairewillett/status/1035987745271758848   Permalink 5:55 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@scsclassics A petition has been started to ask Kindle Direct and CreateSpace to continue supporting publishing in the Latin language. https://www.thepetitionsite.com/499/013/403/dont-drop-latin-books-from-createspace-now-sold-to-kindle-direct/  ” target=”_blank”> https://www.thepetitionsite.com/499/013/403/dont-drop-latin-books-from-createspace-now-sold-to-kindle-direct/    https://www.thepetitionsite.com/499/013/403/dont-drop-latin-books-from-createspace-now-sold-to-kindle-direct/  ” target=”_blank”> https://www.thepetitionsite.com/499/013/403/dont-drop-latin-books-from-createspace-now-sold-to-kindle-direct/    Permalink 6:58 PM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Logic: IF tenure causes civil servants to be subpar (from adverse selection) AND without tenure civil service becomes political patronage for the ruling party, THEN the only solution is: the MINIMUM nmbr of gov employees, reserved for tasks that can’t be subcontracted. Gabish? Permalink 8:18 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@mikeandallie This is a nice sum problem and also a nice min / max calculus problem to share with students. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1035870135498752000   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The French are Germanics who speak a Germanic language using Latin words. Permalink 7:50 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Once govt hires a person, it is short optionality. It is stuck with the bad person, when the good one might be able to get a job elsewhere. It is just like adverse selection in insurance. It is a YUUUUUGE cost: We pay for it. Govs employees shd be AS FIREABLE as other citizens. Permalink 7:16 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My solution pic.twitter.com/fqr2aZbiUp Permalink 6:29 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid Further to my Tweet “NOT ONLY CAUSALITIES BUT ALSO ASSOCIATIONS ARE HARD IN SOCIAL SCIENCES” a new study of 220,000 adults found that eating well above recommended portions of cheese and meat reduces the risk of death and heart attacks. What medical “SCIENCE” will tell us next! pic.twitter.com/9j4WKyKRp8 Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Saturday Bogomolny Memorial Riddle @CutTheKnotMath. (BMR) This one is light. (thanks Dan Sitaru Romanian Mathematical Magazine) pic.twitter.com/3levVBYpUI Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Those who get skin in the game really get it. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1035697778305974274   Permalink 6:21 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb When comparing salaries of government workers, consider that they have a much, much lower risk of unemployment and layoff than the rest of the population. This employment guarantee is a yuuuge hidden compensation. https://twitter.com/derekahunter/status/1035605006563598337   Permalink 6:10 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@NonGMOProject These simple tips will ensure your child goes back to school with a lunch they love, made from ingredients you can feel good about. https://livingnongmo.org/2018/08/27/non-gmo-lunchbox/   Permalink 6:05 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@maxkeiser The bloated corpse of David Bowie seen dancing with children. https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1035315260322967552   Permalink 2:27 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@mbalter Recommend two things: A @MotherJones expose that’s a little dated but revealing, and discovery docs from the #Roundup suit showing #Monsanto has funded them. They practically beg for the money. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/10/american-council-science-health-leaked-documents-fundraising/   and https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/ACSH-email.pdf   Permalink 2:19 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Science progresses from funeral to funeral (of rentseeking academics). Peace progresses from funeral to funeral (of warmongers). Permalink 6:07 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb No math was used (in the modern sense), just heuristics. #Antifragile, Books 4 be 5. https://twitter.com/romanhistory1/status/1034747655044378630   Permalink 4:11 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The point is that nudgeboy Thaler and other entertainers are translating something static (choice betwen 2 lotteries in state-space) into something dynamic (local policy in sequential betting). Static properties have no meaning in the real world. Permalink 4:10 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@HarryDCrane http://RESEARCHERS.ONE  ” target=”_blank”> http://RESEARCHERS.ONE    publishing platform No paywalls No editorial board No accept/reject Autonomous (author-driven) pre-pub peer review Post-pub peer review http://RESEARCHERS.ONE  ” target=”_blank”> http://RESEARCHERS.ONE   : entrusting scholarship to scholars Follow @researchersone ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/z7xFozsECN”>  pic.twitter.com/z7xFozsECN Permalink 6:50 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb In contrast when you use a gamma distr (thinner tails than lognormal) one gets a power law… strange. pic.twitter.com/odHMYmwL4H Permalink 3:26 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Proof du jour … (May have a mistake somewhere). pic.twitter.com/2JFrPhVWqd Permalink 1:38 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This fellow gets it. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1035161447121256449   Permalink 7:12 AM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What works on a small scale almost NEVER expands to large scale. https://twitter.com/atDavidHoffman/status/1034883233605996545   Permalink 4:04 AM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Coincidentally… What he means by “Greek” literature is … things for intellectuals. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1034835323384197120   Permalink 3:10 PM – 29 Aug 2018

REPLICATION CRISIS, Gabish, Monsanto, Donaldo, Saudi Barbaria, slaves, Nudge, trees, waiters | Twitter

@nntaleb Coincidentally… What he means by “Greek” literature is … things for intellectuals. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1034835323384197120   Permalink 3:10 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) People don’t realize the more severe problem is not absence of replication, rather the reduction of EFFECT for those that replicated. If you lower effect by ½, the odds of being observed in REAL LIFE decreases nonlinearly. From 2 sigmas to 1 sigma, down by 86%. Permalink 12:50 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@broketrout Just seeing this book title gave me nightmares.. pic.twitter.com/sNuLpVem2Q Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Academics think in very low-resolution digital while humans see things in analog. Permalink 12:18 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@originalgibby Replication of findings in @sciencemagazine and @nature slightly better than a coin flip. Once again @nntaleb is correct. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/08/27/researchers-replicate-just-13-of-21-social-science-experiments-published-in-top-journals/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bb6f15ba4889   Permalink 11:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The REPLICATION CRISIS a VINDICATION for citizens SICK & TIRED of the Harvards w/a sense of entitlement treating practitioners as immature pple lost without their “science” when it is STATISTICALLY shown Harvards are no better than Ms Bré, fortune teller. pic.twitter.com/TJAZ41AAbT Permalink 8:18 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude. Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by…. 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted. pic.twitter.com/xK2rVp8AL6 Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) We now have to face the fact that what is called “social science” and “evidence based” is scientifically shown to be equivalent to “bullshit vending”. Except less elegant, of course. Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1034130885711417345   Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald 1/ In the wake of the @NewYorker profile, several people recommended I look at the ugly 2003 hit piece that magazine did on Chomsky (on the even of the Iraq War) & 2008 attack on Naomi Klein after “Shock Doctrine.” It is striking how they use the same expel-from-mainstream script pic.twitter.com/rr1BKBa5JJ Permalink 5:55 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What happens to post-Monsanto shills? Predictably, they will do #shameless propaganda elsewhere. “Glyphosate Mark” @mark_lynas seems to have reconverted to promotion of… AlQaeda, helping propagandist @Charles_Lister do #pedophrasty w/fake pictures of dead children in Syria. Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking nitpickers on “Gabish”. “Gabish” is to “Capisce” what “Gabagool” is to “Capicola”, what “Brozhut” is to “Prosciuto”, what “Avangool” is to [YOU FIGURE IT OUT]… Gabish? Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Free speech is something unconditional BY DEFINITION, not something reserved to what your ears enjoy hearing. Gabish? Permalink 7:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get what a utility means. Permalink 6:58 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If someone told me 10 years ago that 1) The White House would be fighting CENSORSHIP by the media (not the other way around, while 2) The media accuses the White House of fascism, I would have called an ambulance. https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/protect-free-speech-digital-public-square-0   Permalink 6:13 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The label “left” is a better disguise for the war machine/weapon makers. Hence the militaristic pseudo-left sills … https://twitter.com/brankomilan/status/1034296370155466753   Permalink 2:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Iosif @iosif_lazaridis is part of a group that is revolutionizing history/archeology, putting them on FIRM scientific grounds, using potent statistics/combinatorics. Yes, indeed we can tell population migrations with a 10^-10 error rate. Thank you, Iosif & ignore journos. https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1034509740729098242   Permalink 12:11 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Propaganda Times (formerly kn0wn as NYT) article misses that those who can’t do can’t do for a reason, an epistemological reason: they often know the wrong things. So we make pple who know the wrong things teach the wrong things for the sake of “pedagogy”. This is fraud. Permalink 11:42 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Traditionally those “communicators” good at explaining are the charlatans, BS Vendors… https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 10:19 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The NYT vs #SkinInTheGame. It is very dangerous to favor those good at explaining but not understanding over people good at understanding but not explaining. pic.twitter.com/k6IIt6Btvp Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I can vouch from Skin in THAT Game. https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/1034476469483970561   Permalink 9:25 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nonvegetarian nongymmachines nonmillennial nonjournalists nonwhitecollarsalarymen nonactors weightlifters have wide waists. Gabish? #Lindy pic.twitter.com/bqvRFXYBO3 Permalink 7:34 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Someone needs to explain to the illustrator of @black_swan_man that nonvegetarian non-teenage non-gym-machines weightlifters have wide waists. (next tweet) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1034193426126909441   Permalink 7:30 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb will like this: Eugenio Montale’s via negativa. https://twitter.com/FPanunzi/status/1034436182271246336   Permalink 6:49 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Actually most of it was done on Dec 31, 1999, about the best books of the 20th C. Things change… Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Either Jaffer needs an alibi to be in NY or we are doing something right @financequant https://twitter.com/jaffer22915438/status/1034163318511071233   Permalink 4:05 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This was lifted from comments I made 10 years ago about 20th C novels. Of course the real thing (Dostoyevski) will be missing… Permalink 3:30 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books   Permalink 2:53 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid NOT ONLY CAUSALITIES BUT ALSO ASSOCIATIONS ARE HARD IN SOCIAL SCIENCES Ioannidis author of “Why Most Published Research Finding (in medicine) Are False” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16060722   just published a paper https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2698337   showing that the nutritional field need radical reform. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVnSHTEfrM”>  pic.twitter.com/qVnSHTEfrM Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal. Permalink 5:32 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn’t even have a variance, steep power law. pic.twitter.com/jdofe7ERRJ Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law. #SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology… or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin… https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1033393663450259459   Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Wars… https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1033735711441092608   Permalink 3:07 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 5) What inspired the Greek/Roman metaphor is the incident when Cato expelled Greek philosophers & rhetors from Rome. Cato was fiercely anti-BS… (from Fooled by Randomness) pic.twitter.com/lfB2br1XgO Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) Discussion of “Roman” vs “Greek” in #Antifragile based on optionality, which is of course NOT LITERAL & unconditional but a general metaphor: In general, Romans were conscious of 2nd order effects all across, despised theory, tawkers, & vapid philosophising. pic.twitter.com/56sO6o7Nwd Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today. #Antifragile: how academics lie abt role of theory: they WRITE history. pic.twitter.com/ZedV2lneL8 Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1)PSYCHO-BS In #Antifragile: I was convinced that the theory that money does *not* bring happiness (beyond a level) was bogus in spite of the “evidence”: psychologists of happiness like $$ & Lindy effect. Turned out that research was psycho-BS, doesn’t replicate #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/84kvvoMrtS Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams The “antiwar” opposition to the war machine. And no one will admit that we are a one-party state… https://twitter.com/timand2037/status/1033565189814112256   Permalink 9:07 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BTW, Byzantines were diehard Roman. Greek was just a language. Permalink 2:49 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The real difference in politics isn’t the “right” vs “left” gradation but rather “Greek” vs “Roman”. + Greek = puts theory above practice + Roman= puts practice above theory Be Roman. Now. Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Using factorials (simpler) pic.twitter.com/fj2r70bPCH Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Steps on how Stirling was used for solution pic.twitter.com/adIh0e8HP3 Permalink 10:21 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb OK, Saturday workout in remembrance of @CutTheKnotMath but not sure Maestro was crazy about gamma functions. cc: @SvetlanaBogom13 pic.twitter.com/mgZvKpHhgS Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb In the absence of @CutTheKnotMath, a Saturday morning workout he would have liked (from Dan Sitaru). pic.twitter.com/dSVv2jH6V5 Permalink 5:32 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/MWD0SCAJME Permalink 5:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb εἶπεν δέ Ἀμὴν λέγω ὑμῖν ὅτι οὐδεὶς προφήτης δεκτός ἐστιν ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ. https://twitter.com/faleflix/status/1033086428442488833   Permalink 4:38 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Thanks @RonPaul. You are a real world superhero. In the Black Swan Man comic, what should your super powers be? https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1033074963568357376   Permalink 1:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan man fighting central banksters and the enemies of Satoshi. …but can someone explain to the cartoonist weightlifters have wider waists? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1033004379962580992   Permalink 8:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb New Title: The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails becomes Real-World Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails pic.twitter.com/eHe6svaha2 Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@ban_kanj No, this isn’t the Amalfi coast.. it’s Southern Lebanon #Naquoura #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/7XqDXMdT9k Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto has commonalities w/Theranos & Madoff, court papers show Made claims from SAFETY studies they NEVER did Lobbied, bullied regulators by infiltrating the system Owned “science” journalists & “rational” crowd Smear campaigns ag scientists (yours truly), ruining careers https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1032633507003158528   Permalink 6:19 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The good news: Forbes & Project Syndicate fired Monsanto shill @henryimiller & removed all past articles. But I cannot believe some journos like Tamar Haspel known to be colluding with Monsanto are still writing in newspapers like @washingtonpost https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1032962224820834306   Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams How sick that Obama decided to let crazed, head-chopping jihadists loose on these good Christian people. And how sad that Trump is too blind to see what’s really going on in Syria. There will be hell to pay for the murder of these innocents. Literally. https://twitter.com/iraqschristians/status/1032746441104674817   Permalink 6:15 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@MccluskyMark People seem to get it, even if their spelling is a little phunny. pic.twitter.com/2LGriWAfOK Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@restoration_x Taleb has discussed and developed Pareto a great deal. Perhaps it is no coincidence that they even ook remarkably similar. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964450061164965888?s=19   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/isefixKgyQ”>  pic.twitter.com/isefixKgyQ Permalink 1:11 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a society where people complain about lawyers than one in which they don’t. https://twitter.com/societalruin/status/1032638737073598464   Permalink 7:52 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) For instance Monsanto’s Eric Sachs @ericsachsPhD who was behind the smear campaign against us & others (collusion with fake journo @keithkloor & Co), retired after the merger. But I will make sure he & others pay some stiff penalty at some point in the rest of their lives. Permalink 7:48 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) From what I understand about mergers, former Monsanto executives can be easily sued by Bayer for stuff they did not disclose or for past malpractice. And I am certain Bayer wasn’t aware of the stuff revealed by court papers. Permalink 7:39 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The beginning of the end… https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1032632886627721216   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Enfin, la France… https://journal.lepoint.fr/comment-vous-n-avez-pas-encore-lu-taleb-2244655   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xajDMhBge2″>  pic.twitter.com/xajDMhBge2 Permalink 5:58 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Solution pic.twitter.com/UpJQs9Jbw1 Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That was quick. The idea of #skininthegame made it to Homeland Security… https://twitter.com/CodeDotGov/status/1025158440522534912   Permalink 5:13 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@maalaukong I still can’t believe I had the gut to train barbell when no doctors and people around me would advise me do that. But I read Antifragile -and after lifting for months I am fine now still thank you Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Morning Quiz. From Dan Sitaru/Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/kSk0ceHTxr Permalink 4:45 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Helenus: on the difference between engineering and reverse engineering. History is HARDER than it seems. pic.twitter.com/tmcfnwqtaz Permalink 2:51 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The story of Helenus @MarkAnthonySPQR as an illustration of the difference between forward and backward equation https://twitter.com/MarkAnthonySPQR/status/1032360191449346048   Permalink 2:49 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Really important work on reporting and citation bias effects on treatment for depression. And there is more not included. ht @nilskappelmann @nntaleb https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/psychological-medicine/article/cumulative-effect-of-reporting-and-citation-biases-on-the-apparent-efficacy-of-treatments-the-case-of-depression/71D73CADE32C0D3D996DABEA3FCDBF57#fndtn-information   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tMOD00CvTZ”>  pic.twitter.com/tMOD00CvTZ Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stefan Gasic @NonMeek summarizes my new book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails (Technical Incerto, Vol 1) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/TECHNICAL_INCERTO_VOL_1_THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/RB7ZwdFPKL”>  pic.twitter.com/RB7ZwdFPKL Permalink 8:28 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Bitte schön. Otherwise okay? pic.twitter.com/Z0FKDX8I3s Permalink 8:13 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) Something tactical that Netanyahu is starting to get but Donaldo (& predecessors) never figured out: if you HELP the population w/something practical, makes it more favorable to you. Netanyahu is offering Iranians solutions for their water problems… https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb As a matter of fact sanctions in Iran (by removing market forces) benefit the rent-seeking circles close to the regime, and hurt those they purport to save from said regime… Something about the lack of mental clarity on the part of bureaucrats. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Maybe… but one thing for sure; @mikeduncan has shown solid evidence of shoddy & unreliable intellectual behavior. And history requires intellectual integrity. https://twitter.com/mikeduncan/status/1031821137003601920   Permalink 5:27 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, sanctions have worked only ONCE in history: S. Africa (even then, unsure). They punish the weak in populations: Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Iran … those you yourself identify as victims of regimes. They thwart commerce that brings peace. Highly unrigorous DC IYI thinking. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1032235948946411523   Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Eh, ma3ak 7a22: https://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI   Permalink 4:14 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Reminds me of a certain book… https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1031959292683804673   Permalink 1:43 PM – 21 Aug 2018

@InsperLiber A partir da análise da obra de Nassim Taleb, Ariel Bozza aborda o delicado problema das minorias intolerantes. Link na bio! #taleb #economia #política #filosofia #ensaio #minorityrule #eleicoes2018 #religião #liberdade #liderança pic.twitter.com/K4UBXd08D6 Permalink 8:51 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now the news is that they may not have beheaded her “YET”. No difference. Permalink 8:13 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@Mat_Heart “Ceterum censeo saudi barbariam esse delendam.” Talebus Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Interesting how Saudi shills think they can make you can believe one furthers US security interests by beheading Shiite women who complain abt gov. treatment. From experience w/Monsanto & Saudi Barbatian shills, e.g. @dietwaldclaus: it’s the last resort job for the total loser. pic.twitter.com/A72dJHXefl Permalink 7:07 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria, not Saudi Arabia. Delenda Saudi Barbaria. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1031894836784316420   Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The style… pic.twitter.com/O08Fba1m8l Permalink 4:18 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I just bought San-Antonio, tome 8 : Bravo, docteur Béru ! ; Viva Bertaga ! ; Un éléphant ça trompe ; Faut… @AbeBooks https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=22650467109&cm_ven=Twitter&cm_cat=TYShare&cm_pla=link&cm_ite=TYShare   Permalink 4:02 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@OZmandia @TuckerGoodrich and @gillespi Have been shouting from the rooftops the dangers of Seed Oils for yonks! Maybe @nntaleb comment will bring it home: https://breaknutrition.com/omega-6-fatty-acids-alternative-hypothesis-diseases-civilization/   SEED OILS ARE A SCAM ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/whTSNtQufd”>  pic.twitter.com/whTSNtQufd Permalink 4:05 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It is also BIGOTRY to replace male privilege by the female one. https://twitter.com/CHSommers/status/1031598245024342017   Permalink 12:17 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) This plus the arrival of the “J” later in the Bronze age explains why the Levant has a mitocondrial DNA much closer to Northern Europe: Lebanon closer to France than to Cyprus. pic.twitter.com/TseQESh6v8 Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Which vindicates the theory that 1) Ashkenazis’ light eyes don’t not come from “Khazars” or as per some other half-baked theory, but from the original population 2) the 20% light eyes found in Lebanon/North Syria don’t come from crusaders, but are largely indigenous https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1031602205869133824   Permalink 11:39 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If and only If the Markov Chain is ergodic. cc:@yaneerbaryam @ole_b_peters https://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/1031606215179157504   Permalink 11:28 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Influent BS vendors lose their influence the minute they close their mouth or put their pen to rest. Just a tiny bit of silence and they are gone. Permalink 10:38 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb But you only get the tail for a function by avoiding sigmoidal transformations https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/976107986736181249   Permalink 8:09 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My favorite @NonMeek cartoon by far: “The difference between absence of evidence and evidence of absence is at least 50 IQ points” https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1014559700137009152   Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Polygenic predictors have a humongous error rate. https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1031188182849732609   Permalink 6:47 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Add to the category: ‘LIFE CHANGING OPPORTUNITY’ https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1031524764215648256   Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The next uncovered scam will be seed oil, particularly corn oil, which has been passing for “healthy” w/o evidence nor time tested uses, nor any direct evidence it is healthier than butter. Instead of high carb/low carb, consider: w/ or w/o seed oil, grains … cc: @Mangan150 Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 500 years, @KenDBerryMD, but good enough. https://twitter.com/KenDBerryMD/status/1031525228021784577   Permalink 6:01 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships (by @financequant & myself) are available for the 9th program Oct 22-26, in NY. We have been giving on average 5 women scholarships & 5 general ones. http://www.realworldrisk.com   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/987695856060174336   Permalink 5:54 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is what @spyrosmakrid seems to be telling us: #ML doesn’t get the tails because nobody can get the tails from past data. https://twitter.com/yjoshi/status/1031491335394607104   Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Eisen has been supporting Monsanto & the GMO BS. Worse: Plos-1 withdrew an Op-Ed by @thackerpd under pressure from Monsanto. Permalink 3:58 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Trishank @trishankkarthik summarized the tawk in a series of tweets: just note that I prefaced (par.) “as a scholar I don’t want to a good speaker, good speakers are usually charlatans” https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1030844991470489600   Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I mean Corneille Permalink 1:23 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My lecktchur on #skininthegame: No guts no glory, no risk no victory, adapted from Racine: ” A vaincre sans péril on triomphe sans gloire”, itself adapted from Seneca: Ignominiam iudicat gladiator cum inferiore componi et scit eum sine gloria uinci qui sine periculo uincitur… pic.twitter.com/tyzG8dSoc6 Permalink 1:01 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Two heuristics for nonergodicity @nntaleb @ole_b_peters https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1031216346095386624   Permalink 9:30 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Traditionally, learned pple & erudites have voiced contempt for the half-read or semi-learned, such as journo @JonahNRO, never for the non-read person of action. Semi-learned pple s.a. Goldberg resemble cars with two wheels missing. You are much better off walking. https://twitter.com/JonahNRO/status/1031157357991092224   Permalink 8:32 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Skin in the game in Lebanese proverbs: bil 7ikam l-Lébnéniyyé: + Ma bi7ékkak illa difrak + S2al mjarréb wla tes2al 7akim + Ghaltét l-shater 2alf ghalta (shater hown = “khabir”) + Kill shi rkhis ghalé + Iza ma kébrét ma-zéghrét (nonlinearity) Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Here is @Michael_Spagat, @sapinker’s support, pestering us for data in order to find “flaws”… doesn’t understand the stochasticity of sample correlation, which inspired this talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&frags=pl%2Cwn   Permalink 5:53 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) There is something green about “quant” @Michael_Spagat and this paper (cont) https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1029092945088131072   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Addition https://twitter.com/ionlyshort/status/1031131593748959232   Permalink 4:56 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nice to meet twitter friends in person https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1030878532891815936   Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of antiwar people in DC… pic.twitter.com/uzXh7vIvUF Permalink 10:17 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb at #RonPaul! pic.twitter.com/xc1MfQvoxJ Permalink 8:52 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald Almost 100,000 people re-tweeted @JohnBrennan moronically & recklessly accusing Trump of *treason* for his Helsinki press conference, only for him now to casually admit it wasn’t & deny he said it. Brennan is a pathological liar, a torture advocate, a killer & a #Resistance icon: https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1030842945333805056   Permalink 8:49 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia9 @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb (I don’t like to see my own books in ky library) Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Unfortunately, in my own house, I can’t display my own books… https://twitter.com/larsgrossmith/status/1030502501089390592   Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally! The Black Swan man is about Bitcoin. (still that waist is that of a dance instructor) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1030414802928263168   Permalink 7:52 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Dynamics of Complex Systems pages 131-2: Time histories of stochastic dynamical systems (Surprise: they are equivalent to equilibrium ensembles, but unusual ones). pic.twitter.com/lASoDK0LmO Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Bayer: investors coming out of denial, slowly realizing that GMOs are the scam of the century. pic.twitter.com/z4eQHBGFR6 Permalink 3:47 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid ML METHODS AND FORECASTING Two interesting reports discuss AI/ML and their relevance to real life problems https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/why-we-need-to-think-differently-about-ai?utm_medium=email&utm_source=topic+optin&utm_campaign=awareness&utm_content=20180813+ai+nl&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpZME5EWmxOV1UwTURKbSIsInQiOiJ0cnRsZkgrdzBsZk93dkpSXC9ZWXdNendLQVRQQzQzRXp2OEsxbkFBOUZCVnpKdkdGK3h3UUNteTE1aE5OQWdxcEJqUVJ1c3MzeUV1SHFzM3ZxOEVPM21VOG5RRFlrcXNTZzdDSTNJVytYcUFcL2c0YXVVVStnK1pSZGtydGxNdzlvIn0%3D   https://www.stateof.ai/   These reports confirm our papers about the poor performance of ML models http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018300785   Permalink 1:03 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb While Monsanto can lobby in DC, bully, soft-bribe & manipulate regulators, and intimidate & smears scientists (like yours truly), Bayer as a foreign-owned corporation can’t easily do so. Bayer lost ~20% since the Monsanto trial (another 4% today). pic.twitter.com/JqLLX7L8Gg Permalink 12:47 PM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If, in some wealthy communities, you run into people who look like cousins, it is more probable that they use the same plastic surgeon. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Some mathematics behind the simulation. pic.twitter.com/6CHV2V8hD5 Permalink 10:17 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mathematical Finance Du Jour. Where I show how a power law mimics stochastic volatility. pic.twitter.com/h4GjdYlsHW Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@RobertKennedyJr Wow! #Monsanto loses another court case over its widely used weed killer. #MonsantoTrial https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Monsanto-loses-another-court-case-over-its-widely-13159459.php   Permalink 9:06 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Does someone have data on the longevity of airline pilots (jet engine). We have data for flight attendants & radiation therapists, but pilots have 1) lower load, 2) aren’t allowed to take sleeping pills. cc:@Mangan150 @GuruAnaerobic @MichaelSagnerMD https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1011244554622676992   Permalink 7:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb During Roman times, children’s educators were usually slaves. Nothing has changed. The principal thing a slave can teach children is how to not be free and make the best of it. In other words, how to think like a slave. Gabish? https://twitter.com/MatthewAckerman/status/1030083875756814336   Permalink 6:34 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Getting ready to go to the city with the highest density of rent seekers, to deliver a lecktchur on hidden rent seeking & the effect on systemic risk. Will also talk about regulatory recapture: Monsanto owns the EPA/FDA but NOT the court system; how common law is robust. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1022942029184163841   Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb There is something irremediably sad at an atheist’s funeral. Permalink 5:13 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And no, most humans do NOT want to be liberated from monotonous tasks, except for (parts of) the weekend. Most want the soothing predictability of a schedule, even those who call themselves “adventurers”. Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Routine is effortless. Most humans, alas, prefer to expend physical, never intellectual energy. Creating requires much, much more effort. https://twitter.com/jackdcowling/status/1030058263193300993   Permalink 4:55 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The boss: Antonio. pic.twitter.com/TzSBNrRoZV Permalink 5:07 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid Ink, finally. California looks Mediterranean, ma non è la cosa reale. Nova York looks nonMed, but it’s just an accident of geography. pic.twitter.com/6ZV8h18Xqt Permalink 5:01 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@The_Cyrenian While the ignorant masses were busy watching Obama dance on Ellen and crack jokes on Jimmy Fallon, my fellow Syrian Christians and I were suffering at the hands of #Obama and #Hillary’s genocidal foreign-policy: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/world/middleeast/syria-isis-assyrian-christians.html   Permalink 1:42 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The counter coup-d’etat is completed. https://www.rt.com/usa/436054-trump-revokes-cia-brennan-clearance/   Permalink 1:25 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Any work you do in the comfort of a routine risks being taken over by a robot. Permalink 12:30 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The answer to Maestro Bogomolny who has time to critique it in Heaven: Finally found the probabilistic interpretation: the Cantelli bound. pic.twitter.com/5iFOE4yuiO Permalink 10:44 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole, nobody ever broke a mafia & rent-seeking clubs by being “generous and kind”! Nudgeboys Thaler & Sunstein feel entitled to manipulate citizens, increasing tail risk! Sunstein wants to prevent citizens from knowing if food has GMOs When you go, go for the jugular! Permalink 10:13 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@DrMichaelBonner I owe all my academic success to the squat and the deadlift: https://twitter.com/FrontiersIn/status/1006064896453349376   Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’m out of here. pic.twitter.com/jTGwJ95HEt Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity. Permalink 5:00 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Computational irreducibility: by @stephen_wolfram , explains why the consequences of some stuff like GMOs cannot be understood the way Monsanto claims… https://twitter.com/complexity_labs/status/1029110374937911296   Permalink 9:13 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And (aggressively) vegetarian. Permalink 8:21 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb San Francisco: tatooed millennials with the wrong type of attitude problem, overcrowding in overpriced tenements. Permalink 7:44 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@Decafquest “As for scholars, I respect their labour and have drawn great benefits from it, but the fact is that at the banquet of philosophy they are neither the cooks nor the gourmets but the waiters that run between the two.” – Bryan Magee #skininthegame #philosophy #academia Permalink 2:27 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@GMWatch Corruption of science by the agrochemical industry: #Monsanto flooded scientific journals with ghostwritten articles https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/latest-news/18408-the-monsanto-papers-poisoning-the-scientific-well   New peer-reviewed source details Monsanto’s deceptive activities ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/W6QaY06ZdB”>  pic.twitter.com/W6QaY06ZdB Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb At the core of what pple are not getting (from @ole_b_peters expl.) is that making $110 vs losing $100 with 50% probability is not a state-space issue, but part of a sequential procedure dynamically repeated over time, with required edge (here $5) changing as one makes or loses. Permalink 5:41 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR “mni7” in Lebanese, meaning “fine”, does not seem to come from the Arabic المَنْحُ: العطاء (grant), rather from from the Aramaic “peaceful”,”content”, Heb מָנוֹחַ (unless I am mistaken, cc:@Jonassibony ) pic.twitter.com/cGqIxhSpAn Permalink 11:30 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The powerful thing about this inequality is that, for finite samples Xs= {X_1, X_2,…,X_n}, w/average m, n odd (for small samples) and Xi copies of X drawn from ANY probability distribution in R, not even IID, E((Xs-m)^2)>Median(Xs)^2, even if all moments of X are infinite! Permalink 7:23 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally started a math “blog”. There are incomplete problems by @CutTheKnotMath. cc:@SvetlanaBogom13, @gcfr20, @mikeandallie, @long, @octonion, etc. https://fattailsandotherissues.wordpress.com/2018/08/13/maestro-bogomolnys-last-quiz/   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Where some aspects of the point are fleshed out https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 4:32 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why Nudge and Behavioral Economics are PseudoScience, a summary pic.twitter.com/oMkd1IMQq4 Permalink 4:28 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole Peters quietly informing nudgeboy @R_Thaler that his understanding of his own subject matter (probabilistic decision making) is highly deficient. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1028916116507246593   Permalink 4:08 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mr @teppofelin, one never debates a bulls***ter. Permalink 4:50 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@primalpoly We’re recruiting subjects aged 18+ for a psychology study on religious art. It’s an online survey that takes about 45 minutes. It includes ratings and memory tests for about 90 religious images. If interested, please go to https://esurvey.unm.edu/opinio/s?s=93060   Permalink 4:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb About 6 y ago, a B-School prof, @teppofelin, BS vendor type, couldn’t get #Antifragile & was nasty about it. He was teaching “entrepreneurship” while being on a salary. Academics don’t notice these things. Permalink 4:00 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You are more likely to change your mind from a bad argument from someone on your initial side than a good argument from someone on the other side. Permalink 2:28 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@Lentejitas These are some of @nntaleb’s Black Swans ;-) Have a good night! pic.twitter.com/PBhoPBkwl9 Permalink 1:29 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb For some reason B-School Profs (living on charities) think they are smarter (less “irrational”) than real world risk takers when they are clueless about the math (ergodicity+fat tails). Flaws by finance prof (@WGoetzmann) who think TBS is an “airport book” pic.twitter.com/ilxSy4GqEx Permalink 12:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Next step: Business Schools; ban teaching by nonpractitioners. https://twitter.com/doshijatin/status/1028689718140174336   Permalink 11:20 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@EdLatimore “Ironically, by being beggars, they had the equivalent of ‘f*** you money’, which we can more easily get by being at the lowest rung than by joining the income-dependent classes.” @nntaleb, Skin in The Game Permalink 8:30 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Posted TECHNICAL INCERTO, VOL 1: THE STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS (~300 pages) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/TECHNICAL_INCERTO_VOL_1_THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS?s=t   via @academia Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Our planet has many more trees than 35 years ago! Looks like people notice deforestation, but not reforestation. Media & UN reports by self serving bureaucrats who want to “solve” your problems. ALWAYS get stuff by systematic analysis, NEVER piecemeal observations. pic.twitter.com/6a8uEj7iPM Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Localism ≠ Nationalism @nntaleb L maxalliye ≠ l çawmiyye https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1002949896209600512   Permalink 2:39 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@KenDBerryMD Retweet if you think we need Nassim Taleb to help us straighten out medical/nutrition research!!! Permalink 6:43 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I am very rude to *high status* people who are rude to waiters/waitresses. Usually twice as rude. Sometimes three times, just to make sure. You cannot believe how many pple on the “left” are rude to waiters, as they feel their “mission” insulates them from humans #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/MsBlaireWhite/status/1027976344569704448   Permalink 12:15 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Çahammiyet l kitébé bel lebnéné, video la Nassim Taleb: #lebanese #lebnene https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI   Permalink 10:58 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 10… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ludicfallacy #antifragile #infinitegames #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/vIMigj3S05 Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That’s next https://twitter.com/ocrashad/status/1028323587092930560?s=21   Permalink 10:07 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/gmwatch/status/1028316002415792128?s=21   Permalink 10:05 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@M_Gauche “We define “rude” less by the words used than by the status of the recipient.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:21 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You lower *regulatory recapture* by having fewer regulations (as w/medication: only when the court/tort system doesn’t help). Put skin into the game of corporations. ( Pple hearing my shouts when the news hit wondered what soccer game I was following) https://twitter.com/WaqasHaque411/status/1028266120648843264   Permalink 6:42 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@JohnMinehan1 Which is Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s point . . . . https://twitter.com/2peterharris/status/1028235466036969472   Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@Decafquest ma2al zghir katabto 3an 2este3mel l lebnene ka legha maktoobe. Shu ra2yak? @nntaleb #lebanese #lebanon #lebnene https://medium.com/@mahmoud.rasmi/bel-lebnene-5cc091b0c9fc   Permalink 4:12 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This nightmare “Chased by Monsanto” (from @black_swan_man) is over. Now time for payback. I mean find the *individuals* involved. pic.twitter.com/cAQPK3KEN0 Permalink 3:20 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Sweet victory…. It is particularly powerful that the legal system (torts) protects citizens, while regulators are in collusion w/industry: the EPA/FDA let Monsanto ghostwrite their rules. Regulators are bribed by industry as they get hired later as payback. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 5:55 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb They didn’t just lose a case. They lost another 100. Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU. Permalink 3:29 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb CHAMPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGNE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Monsanto lost the trial. It is not about Glyphosate. It’s that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay! https://twitter.com/careygillam/status/1028039905471950849   Permalink 3:26 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@OpenSecretsDC OpenSecrets searchable ‘Foreign Lobby Watch’ database makes it easier than ever to browse through disclosures related to foreign influence in the US: http://crp.org/faraw   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/B2dLWFBz6t”>  pic.twitter.com/B2dLWFBz6t Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@PenguinVerlag In welcher Welt leben wir – was meint ihr? @nntaleb verrät uns seine Sicht in »Das Risiko und sein Preis«. Ab 27.08. erhältlich: http://bit.ly/DasRisikoundseinPreis   #SkinintheGame ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HoHIHr28uq”>  pic.twitter.com/HoHIHr28uq Permalink 6:17 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@alessabocchi Can someone check if the NYT has recently taken any funds from Saudi Arabia? https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1027585342029918213   Permalink 1:41 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@georgemacgill Today I Learnt: WITTGENSTEIN’S RULER Don’t just use your beliefs to measure reality, but also use reality to measure your beliefs. If the IDIOT keeps getting it right, it might not be them who is the idiot @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zQPHIH2Oc3 Permalink 12:38 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What Saudi Barbaria is doing to Canada is simple signaling: to show other states what’s in store if they criticize their human rights. The problem of course … Permalink 11:37 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You may use his Lebanese dictionary and write in social media script (3al 3adé). My opinion is that an Ataturk style precise top-down alphabet is not necessary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI&t=3s&frags=pl%2Cwn   Permalink 11:06 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@holland_tom I remember in the summer of 2014 the eyes of the world being so fixed on Gaza – where, brutal though the conflict was, no genocide was remotely being attempted – that it pretty much ignored Sinjar, where the Yazidis were absolutely the targets of genocide. https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1027438325769101319   Permalink 9:47 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So effectively, thanks to Roger Makhluf, Lebanese ceased to be a dialect on Aug 8, 2018. Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@UnSubtleDesi [Archives] Economists bullshit for a living : ⁦@nntaleb⁩ gives Kaushik Basu a lesson on ‘Skin in the Game’ http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/economists-bullshit-for-a-living-nn-taleb-gives-kaushik-basu-a-lesson-on-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 8:29 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally, A Lebanese-English dictionary/Lexicon. 630 pages! (Arabists won’t like it) https://www.amazon.com/Lebanese-English-Lexicon-Rojee-Makluuf-ebook/dp/B07G9PJTQ2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1533825238&sr=8-1&keywords=Rojee+makluuf&dpID=31gqiw2AeiL&preST=_SY445_QL70_&dpSrc=srch   Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@baielala “Almost all those caught making a logical fallacy interpret it as a ‘disagreement’.” – @nntaleb https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIODdHYl95d1dWNE0/edit   Permalink 7:25 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system. Permalink 5:34 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The NYT needs to sell more and more subscriptions to stay in the same place. Concave growth. (The rise in stock price was largely due to the maahket’s.) Indeed, this is a dying business. Unethical journalism doesn’t pay. pic.twitter.com/n0a50DQ0LP Permalink 4:14 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Financial Maahkets aren’t fooled by the NYT “growth” story: + Close to saturation for digital subscriptions ~(40% from crossword puzzles!), now < logarithmic. + Rev. growth is not good. Ain’t a tech company! + The “Anti-Trump” strategy deligitimizes long term. https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1027181710419607558   Permalink 3:31 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Here’s my contribution to this thread. As a cartoonist my main challenge is to simplify any issue as much as possible without losing any of the meaning. I hope I succeeded in that with this comic strip. #LifeExpectancy #Math pic.twitter.com/aut5o1o46k Permalink 3:21 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do. https://twitter.com/scottlucas_ea/status/1027304494680432641   Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do. https://twitter.com/ScottLucas_EA/status/1027304494680432641   Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@nntaleb When your company is public you become the slave/depend on the opinion of the most clueless but vocal journalist, say @BretStephensNYT. No matter how rich, you never have f*** you money. Go private; f*** them. https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1026912973120462848   Permalink 9:06 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The point as presented 20 year ago in Fooled by Randomness. pic.twitter.com/kEupc0Emn0 Permalink 1:10 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the offending statement. It is not whether the number is true or false, it is that the REASONING is false. pic.twitter.com/AXRb2kA9pg Permalink 12:31 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The correct (evolutionary) way to see what happens is: +Life expectancy while reaching full (socially accepted) reproductive age, i.e. ~15-25. Which will be much higher: In the previous example it would be 67. So childhood mortality removed 27 years of “average” life exp! Permalink 12:14 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Simply, if 40% died in childbirth (or very young, which is about historical number), 50% died at 60, and 10% died at 92, the “average” life expectation would be ~40. Childhood mortalily hugely skews the average. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Thread of pple on twitter who understand statistics (and the notion of average) much much better than the @nytimes : life expectancy = 40 means a lot of infant mortality, not that people didn’t live long. Please, please, please avoid the NY Times. Please. https://twitter.com/owenezell/status/1026789999629484033   Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3500 years of Phoenician wine pic.twitter.com/U2ZMQY3wsm Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now a disclaimer: one greatgrandmother and one great great grandmother are from Douma. (Douma is Greek Orthodox/Melkite) Permalink 4:52 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The surrounding gorges. Douma’s advantage is that it is out of the way and on the local top of a mountain; no ski no nonsense. pic.twitter.com/2937ddCftZ Permalink 4:24 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Tomb ~ 600 (priest of the goddess of health) pic.twitter.com/GKFFVviKHA Permalink 3:28 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Douma, most beautiful village both architecturally and scenically. Former Byzantine health spot. Church built in 1610. pic.twitter.com/DvMve2Gj7v Permalink 3:23 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out the main beneficiaries of fossil fuel were the trees: people used to log for cooking/heating. At least until now. Permalink 11:26 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Even if one accepts risk aversion, it doesn’t work the way nudgeboy @R_Thaler thinks it does. pic.twitter.com/Swdu4yUnV9 Permalink 11:16 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The vicious thing in @josephinequinn’s Vox article is that she doesn’t flatly deny that Phoenicians existed; she just packages her anachronistic argument (absence of passport & flag-style national “identity”) to make you believe that they never existed. Shoddy. Permalink 2:31 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb More than 5,500 years https://twitter.com/richmcgaha/status/1026547483462139904   Permalink 12:57 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cartoonist understands my language ( “myopic bureaucrat imbeciles” ) but doesn’t get that a thin waist is not for weightlifters. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1026297804648525826   Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@sidpathak92 What a Saudi govt handle tweeted before deleting. But sure it is the Persians who are the enemy. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/i7VCgqeWfU Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@RogerCremades How do #rigidity traps work in #socio-#ecological #systems? Amazingly, this comics explains it with pristine clarity. I congratulate @black_swan_man & @nntaleb. More on rigidity traps, the #adaptivecycle, risks, insurance and climate change here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0044-2.epdf?author_access_token=ba94udDKN3bSyWKsBb_MotRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PqLfoL8EXoMy7UUI3hBF7YmO2O68NxhD7gHhYj07eiUujlnPShfbXLDBBFLWmtEilUAjHdpztO6tX-E8oMp4VMjRrrbhToNEIA4yRz0mpXcg%3D%3D   https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1026297804648525826   Permalink 7:11 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@thackerpd Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as Invasive Species http://www.aiscience.org/journal/paperInfo/jepsd?paperId=3925   You’ll never see any #GMO promoting journalist discuss this paper, because the only thing they yammer about is “#GMO products are safe to consume, so end of story.” Permalink 5:24 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis happen? This is from my testimony, what Obama’s bureaucrats did not want to report. (Also I withdrew the paper from a journal owing to stupid comments by referee, republished elsewhere) pic.twitter.com/kB6gWX7De5 Permalink 12:39 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out, @realDavidGal has shown, “Risk Aversion” is a fiction. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/why-the-most-important-idea-in-behavioral-decision-making-is-a-fallacy/?sf194849524=1   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/901472828310114304   Permalink 12:26 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@ziadaboujamra @nntaleb The view from Dhour El Choueir yesterday. Green indeed! pic.twitter.com/UpWvZA1YbS Permalink 11:10 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 9… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #yellowstoneeffect #wildfire #endthefed #daoofcapital #antifragile pic.twitter.com/sB6VKLR3Q2 Permalink 7:43 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@SamuelGWalters Alexander Bogomolny liked inequalities, so here is one on his behalf. (I came across it while doing estimate calculations.) @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math #FunFact pic.twitter.com/sICzlqaXwS Permalink 1:53 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of docs written in Phoenician were lost, but a lot of Phoenicians wrote in lingua franca later (Greek) as was the norm in Levant after 3nd Century BC, same as Indians writing in English now. Does it make Josephus count as non Jewish? Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Lack of skin in the game. (Photo taken before heavy deadlifting phase) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nassim-taleb-no-one-who-caused-the-crisis-paid-any-price-vbj2lzc6d   Permalink 12:24 PM – 5 Aug 2018

NYT, Osteocalcin, Lebanon, Reforestation, Bayesianistas | Twitter

On the Shadow Moments of Apparently Infinite-Mean Phenomena Authors Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Pasquale Cirillo

@nntaleb The idea of #skininthegame is that nobody shd cause risk to others without impunity. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1026113430376337408   Permalink 9:36 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BS vending @josephinequinn is spreading theory that “Phoenicians didn’t exist”(loved by Arabists) on anachronistic acct of absence of national identity/self-designator (No Ph. integrated centralized rule). The Neanderthals never existed by same analysis. Same for Elephants… Permalink 9:29 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid This is the updated Outline of the paper “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art”. I would like to thank all those who send me comments and suggestions for improvements. I hope I have incorporated them correctly, given the constrain of not having > than 4 bullet points pic.twitter.com/wbIVSfQSHU Permalink 7:59 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam The Precautionary Principle is considered by Court of Justice of the EU as an anchor of European Law in ruling that affects use of CRISPR genetic modification https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8f60f1b4-447f-435b-a3fc-5a2e2539a4d3   @normonics @nntaleb @rupertread @PrecPrinciple Permalink 5:23 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@brian_trollz You harassed a man who had nothing to do with Bitcoin, based on nothing but what could only be interpreted as “evidence” in the mind of a deranged stalker, and you enjoyed being supported in that? Good to know. Permalink 6:15 PM – 4 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid I am working on part of a paper on “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art” to be part of the Special Issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on the M4 Competition.. Any comments, suggestions, differences, objections will be welcomed. pic.twitter.com/iWXY365hI5 Permalink 10:10 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the upper portion of the Qadisha (pronounced here “2odisha”) valley today. You can see the rising tree-line from reforestation. pic.twitter.com/s8I0ch94R4 Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The mountain had been terraced to farm staples (mostly wheat) & trees were of no use (except for fruit bearing ones). Unseen positive side effect of Ottoman Christian Millets inheritance laws. Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@normonics “risk denialists” is a better term. I’m going to go with that Better reveals their standing as ideologues https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1025744525841653760   Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This forest in Northern Lebanon (7adat) is owed to the fact that it was agrigultural land & the owners died w/the Titanic. Nobody could get the right papers to farm. pic.twitter.com/TPHvfzcKwB Permalink 4:37 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@EHSANI22 With all mixed reactions to @RaniaKhalek article below, it’s important to stay focused on the subject of reconciliation as a policy tool compared to the national land top down approach of Geneva that was pushed by a number of policy makers at the time. Small is beautiful @nntaleb https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1025386863618605056   Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Aug 2018

@primalpoly BTW, I don’t want the @NYTimesPR to fire Jeong. Demanding a firing implies some faith that a company could rediscover its ethical compass. Rather, I’m supporting a consumer boycott of a moribund newspaper that’s proven itself wickedly prejudiced & hopelessly partisan. Permalink 11:52 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It’s not like when the NYT condoned/caused the Iraq invasion out of ignorance / arrogance. This is a blatant violation of fundamental ethics. Permalink 7:50 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Never compromise on fundamental ethics. Never. Be honorable and never read anything in the @nytimes Permalink 7:16 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With left to right @PZalloua, Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, & Hiram Corm (son of Charles Corm) at the Charles Corm foundation. pic.twitter.com/UXd9FGIdtP Permalink 6:29 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@Once_there_was_ https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   A great provoking read by @nntaleb especially in current climate. Will always remember @nytimes apology letter. Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Too disgusted to talk to the @nytimes pic.twitter.com/MtwmRr2Yaz Permalink 2:27 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stability is owed to the following: Christians believe Lebanon is the first stop in the West (Europa was Phoenician); Sunnis believe Lebanon is the last stop in the East; Shiites (now) believe Lebanon is just Lebanon. Permalink 2:18 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@NickSzabo4 The more San Francisco code censors this topic, the more I’m going to retweet the many great censored tweets on it. The New York Times has with no remorse hired a pathological racist and sexist fuck to edit and write on technology and the people who have or are building it. https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1025240297876451333   Permalink 11:23 PM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I guess the NYT didn’t “fact check” historical pictures https://twitter.com/decafquest/status/1024516715567300608?s=21   Permalink 6:27 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The Shouf mountains this morning: much greener than in 1900. pic.twitter.com/VRMfD6HrnK Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistics is not being fooled by randomness, not reading coffee cups and neo-astrology. If you don’t get it, then you get blocked. Permalink 2:07 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I won’t say what it is; the mother of all paleo food in an Armenian-Aleppo rstrnt in Central Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/g24zupcrbJ Permalink 12:32 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@Ekaitzsaies ANNOUNCEMENT: On the 10th of October we are going to organise a meet-up in Orio (Basque Country) to talk about @nntaleb ´s ideas. Permalink 11:31 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So far in 2018, 6 peer-reviewed papers, 2 with @DrCirillo, 4 as single author. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1024670339484344320   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Menu written in Lebanez pic.twitter.com/fDaN0bhrje Permalink 4:24 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With the archeologist and Phoenicologist Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, who turned out to be the father of twitter friend ⁦@BoustanyMazen⁩ (and son of mega-erudite Fouad Ephrem) pic.twitter.com/DHylfAOmwx Permalink 4:14 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) We know that osteocalcin restores muscle endurance. Muscles strength are less investigated. Again fughedabout mechanisms, take phenomenology: @CoachRippetoe reports that only heavy weight bearing exercises you do standing up count. pic.twitter.com/KPJCxDm8xU Permalink 1:04 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The bone also regulates memory and mental functions via osteocalcin (Karsenty). SPECULATION: can healthier bones for overweight pple explain the all-cause-mortality effect? POLICY: just follow the phenomenology that healthy pplw have healthy bones and ignore mechanisms? Permalink 12:47 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Antifragile on health of bones: bones are part of the endocrine system, not some engineering structure. You don’t improve your bone with exercise machine. @Mangan150 attributes the fertility crisis to correlative (Om 6), not causative (osteopenia) #Complexity #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/rPWu2JLqg6 Permalink 12:44 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria controls the monoculture narrative. https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1024013693946933249   Permalink 11:06 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And avoid the fossil fuel propaganda: the greening does not come from CO2 but rather from irrigation… correlates to GDP. Permalink 8:03 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So another BEFORE-AFTER, Deir l 2amar 1900-2018 pic.twitter.com/xmsrFETVjx Permalink 6:39 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Took this picture yesterday in Kfar7azir coming from the Med. The hill was completely barren during my childhood. And this is a picture of Deir el 2amar in ~1900 pic.twitter.com/DhZuZjoxmw Permalink 6:31 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The problem with low-skilled intellektshuals and journos s.a. @robGmacfarlane and the “brilliant” @ABarnardNYT is that they think they understand technical things & impose fortune cookie thinking on Leb ecology or the Syrian war. BS Vendors https://twitter.com/RobGMacfarlane/status/1022362765963550720   Permalink 6:24 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@SvetlanaBogom13 Flying up high and still in earthly colors. Alexander’s photo from his last winter on this plain@CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/yb66KaOrTf Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/ysV1mk5Mmp Permalink 4:20 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Geoff and Vince have a powerful view of the naturalistic preferences of city dwellers. https://twitter.com/geoffreydgraham/status/1024060970715566080   Permalink 4:35 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) In other words, we have to live with the fact that some languages may not have hierarchical family trees. Permalink 3:28 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Even Greenberg’s broader classification of branches is, scientifically speaking, grossly pulled out of a hat. (We are seeing some laterality uncovered by @Safaitic, which means ignore “dialects” as “branches” for now and focus on something structural). Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) @iosif_lazaridis mentioned how older, “just so” taxonomies turned out to not map to the trees made *on the fly* before phylogenetics (sequncng) My bone is tagging Levantine as *branch of*Arabic as proposed by @PhDniX and @lameensouag rather than, the reverse or *laterality* pic.twitter.com/n5N21QE6n3 Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) The point I stressed is that, unlike genetics that is based on hard science, we should ignore traditional linguistics with its”on the fly” classifications, particularly the horribly sorry state of Semitic linguistics. https://twitter.com/PZalloua/status/1022301220113920001   Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Current Lebanon has been mysteriously internally stable (now for three decades) partly because every single ethnoreligious group is now a minority (Christians, Shiites, Sunnis, etc.) There is neither minority nor majority rule (Tocqueville’s dream). @PZalloua Permalink 2:40 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Defending @elonmusk … but still the waist is thin. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1023956974252240896   Permalink 8:46 AM – 30 Jul 2018

@DavidBCollum Seems to me that Stephen Hadley, Ratheon director, should be investigated, if appropriate, tried for treason, and, if guilty, hung from the neck until dead… https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-28/robert-fisk-i-traced-missile-casings-syria-back-their-original-sellers   Permalink 8:21 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On the way. https://twitter.com/ban_kanj/status/1023570127902523392   Permalink 2:08 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 Do any Roman/Greek Experts in epigraphy know what this says ? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/s9y87OVP1l Permalink 12:54 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For nitpickers what I call Northern Phoenicia is North of Byblos. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/391SUDxJQz Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On my way to Northern Phoenicia. This is the first plane trip in years without the company of math quizzes by Maestro @CutTheKnotMath Alexander Bogomolny left us three weeks ago. Permalink 7:58 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@J_MaestreVidal As a researcher that usually resort on forecasting solutions, I have drawn countless times on the @spyrosmakrid time series collections. Today I had the opportunity to deal with the M4 dataset. Veredict: they did it again! Brilliant work, as always #MachineLearning #AI #forecast pic.twitter.com/sJ9wZWZXKD Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Just as we coined “pedophrasty” as a term to indicate the use of salient images of children by charlatans to sell their fakes (it suspends criticism), we need a term for the squalid argument “for the poor” to sell such crap as GMOs. Penophrasty? Ptochophrasty? Latin better? https://twitter.com/calebwatney/status/1023292528924282881   Permalink 4:59 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@foodtechhacker Nature represents approximately NP strong solutions. We don’t get this. We need to accept it. But if we did, we’d have to reject nearly everything that makes up our economy. If you don’t understand NP, read here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem   @nntaleb @SeloSlav Permalink 5:25 PM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Cedar trees may have a problem, but in an ecology some species will always be maladapted in a changing environment and others will thrive. Permalink 10:42 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The NYT article by @ABarnardNYT (characteristically) misrepresents the environmental situation in Lebanon & might discourage the overactive Lebanese evironmentalists. There has been a significant reforestation of the place. (Thread) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1014165996083580931   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Fat Tailed Random Matrices (TECHNICAL INCERTO, Vol 1) https://www.dropbox.com/s/bq2lhmoo9v686ap/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%201.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nUkeH73PgY”>  pic.twitter.com/nUkeH73PgY Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@psi_theta “Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” — @nntaleb An unreliable/dumb source gives more information about itself than the information it forwards. Permalink 4:01 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@CCavafy C.P. Cavafy, “According to the Formulas of Ancient Greco–Syrian Magicians”, translated by @DMendelsohn1960 #poetry #Greece pic.twitter.com/gnyEqw2wBU Permalink 3:50 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A point that this ignorant Matti Ilmanen @milmanen didn’t get. Permalink 5:32 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@RonPaul Come see Nassim Nicholas Taleb and many other GREAT speakers at my Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s “Media & War” conference on August 18th in Washington, DC! More info and tickets: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/rpi-peace-and-prosperity-2018-media-war-tickets-46590140364   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jUsbpm0pvo”>  pic.twitter.com/jUsbpm0pvo Permalink 1:29 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This said, I also insisted on the role of priors in (some) medical decisions to manage false positives/negatives. Permalink 9:48 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Found a Tesla supercharger on Boston-NY near artisanal burger rstrnt (keto-friendly) that serves espresso. Nice break for twitter fights with Bayesianistas. pic.twitter.com/kUqkvGbJWA Permalink 9:39 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@cdipaola62 I think Taleb actually said, “F—k Bayes.” Which made a lot more sense to me than some of the equations…glad he was there to interpret for me. Permalink 9:20 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The idea behing “Bayesian” approaches is that if 2 pple have different priors, they will eventually converge to the same estimation, via updating. A “wrong” prior is therefore OK. Under fat tails, if you have the wrong prior, you never get there. (Taleb & Pilpel, 2004) Gabish? https://twitter.com/davidsarac/status/1022643234160357376   Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@kavehdaneshvar Not every day you get so much complexity in one place! @nntaleb #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/r6Hwf20DuQ Permalink 6:41 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@djpardis Risk, fat tails, and precaution workshop at #ICCS2018 “Longevity comes from a volatile heartbeat” —@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Zqhn84JpqC Permalink 6:01 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@nntaleb His gadness ⁦@GadSaad⁩ in the workshop. pic.twitter.com/mcZZxiXcvX Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Alexander the Great makes @realDonaldTrump look like Mother Teresa.” Permalink 1:16 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Free advice: the lunch crowd has decided that the next @black_swan_man comic should have incompetent supervillain @R_Thaler who tries to nudge @nntaleb into trouble @normonics Permalink 9:40 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Nonlinearity in travel time, like @nntaleb said in Antifragile #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/RuqlB27Ozg Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@HardeepSPuri Also took time out to meet my friend, the famous author of several critically acclaimed bestsellers @nntaleb I have always enjoyed our intellectually stimulating discussions. This one was after a long time & first since I became a Minister. (3/3) pic.twitter.com/waDQOkVTBN Permalink 4:28 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@PZalloua Discussing Levantine genetics, and the spread of the Semitic language with L. Lazaridis, D. Reich and NN Taleb over a Mediterranean meal! @nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis pic.twitter.com/F7kpUCXyHU Permalink 7:02 PM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Almost there… https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1022113434828189696   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@LetsWorkHappy Learning more about fat tails from @nntaleb at #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/ihRaT6t2wM Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@mZargham .@nntaleb — tearing apart ‘scientific’ concepts built based on empirically invalid mathematical assumptions. starting over with more realistic mathematical assumptions to derive new principles. #ICCS2018 justifying my decisions to favor product based dynamic decision policies! pic.twitter.com/qhMkkrxl3k Permalink 6:50 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@RhysLindmark 3/1 @nntaleb begins his talk with this overview: “What happens when you look at risk *dynamically* not *statically*?” #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@DTFinegood .@nntaleb “p values are not scientific”. #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/mFPFv3S5HV Permalink 6:28 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/4fzFByyz7U Permalink 6:06 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@EdmondAwad Twitter coming to real life at #ICCS18 @nntaleb @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane pic.twitter.com/kY5NN65Zwq Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD with the crew @nntaleb @PZalloua @trishankkarthik in Boston pic.twitter.com/Kmb6N4gaQC Permalink 6:04 PM – 24 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Respect for the firefighters and #PrayForGreece Permalink 7:06 AM – 24 Jul 2018

@Ekaitzsaies Hi @GuruAnaerobic ! Mr @urtatses and I had our first meeting this afternoon to start organizing a meet-up in the Basque Country to talk about @nntaleb ‘s ideas this November. Classroom Barbells First 2 speakers (him & I) Are you joining us? Anyone else? pic.twitter.com/Tpe2s7nALT Permalink 11:22 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends, for the paperback edition, we are looking for comments on Skin in the Game from people with Skin in the Game (not reviewers), that is actually users. If you have a comment, please give us your first name and city of residence. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/6vj1mbNNJT Permalink 9:15 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad and @PZalloua at #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/iP7KtiXzGm Permalink 7:42 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@MimeticValue #ExistentialRisk #EffectiveAltruism #TemporalEmpathy pic.twitter.com/5b35BihdAf Permalink 3:22 PM – 22 Jul 2018