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Economists, Paris, Moscow, Deadlifting, Tetlock, Ghosn, Tesla, Dubai/UAE, Optionsellers, Regulators, Khashoggi | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “you should study risk taking, not risk management”

@naniiyer @nntaleb Research is catching up to what you have always said https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/well/move/even-a-little-weight-training-may-cut-the-risk-of-heart-attack-and-stroke.html?smid=fb-nytimes   Permalink 3:20 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Rory lexktchring. Employees try to minimize blame. #skininthegame Note the socks. pic.twitter.com/yHtCSs9lOe Permalink 1:59 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can raise the lettrine but not done in ancient Mss. pic.twitter.com/w8HkMKuU4S Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #TariffMan @POTUS @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/MGDyg5wKUo Permalink 11:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The point is that economists and psychologists, just like astrologers and fortune tellers shd NEVER be pit in the same category as real scientists and thinkers. Gabish? https://twitter.com/rafael_060_/status/1070355057554714625   Permalink 8:36 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Colors are Lindy. In the musée de Cluny. pic.twitter.com/CoSOi7MFJb Permalink 8:30 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Sveriges riksbank officially denies appointing the “Nobel” in economics, deflecting the “IYI” accusation, shifting the blame to (the economists in) the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. But his magesty told me personally it was “not a Nobel, but a Swedish Riksbank prize” pic.twitter.com/LSD8i3roaX Permalink 7:47 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if the Lettrine format at the beginning of chapters works for the new book. pic.twitter.com/62pTH5wfv2 Permalink 6:44 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lindy https://twitter.com/JoshHochschild/status/1070016645769375744   Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@JulianKirby No #pseudos here..straight talking from @nntaleb to a packed house at #RiskMinds this morning..#skininthegame pic.twitter.com/PvOBNX5QzQ Permalink 12:27 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@ErikSchatzker Question for @black_swan_man: Is Tariff Man friend or foe? cc @nntaleb Permalink 11:24 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@JoshHochschild Example from Cajetan’s commentary on St. Thomas’s Summa Theologiae. pic.twitter.com/7H85uoLT7e Permalink 10:07 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I found the drift in meaning: “covetous” in Hebrew means “praiseworthy” in other Semitic languages. Permalink 10:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Philological Mystery du Jour: The root 7MD for לא תחמוד in the 10 Cmdmts doesn’t seem to match the meaning of the Arabic (حمد, with names like 7amid, M7mud, etc). And in Syriac texts the 10th C is ܠܐ ܬܪܓ Are they the same root? Thanks for the help. @Jonassibony @PhDniX Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The tradition of presenting a cental text surrounded by commentary is not limited to (post Rashi) Talmudic. Below + Erasmus, ~ 1515 (In Praise of Folly) + Talmud, 1482, Guadalajara, + Eramus, @BellesLettresEd, 2018 bilingual edition Figured out how to do it in LaTeX. #Lindy pic.twitter.com/obyOCOaZrl Permalink 8:56 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ DO ML METHODS AND EXPLANATORY VARIABLES IMPROVE FORECASTING ACCURACY ABOVE THAT OF PURE TIME SERIES MODELS? THE EVIDENCE IS NOT CLEAR! Permalink 7:46 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Paris is quiet this morning. The side effect of the riots: hotel employees are very, very humble. Permalink 1:42 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/JH1PlURgrc Permalink 1:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Moscow bookstore https://twitter.com/khazbi_budunov/status/1069473028856311813   Permalink 12:09 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@thomasjbevan1 ‘He is assessed by other professors, not readers. Zero skin in the game.’ I’m sure @nntaleb would agree. Academia seems to be largely a job scheme from what I can tell. Digging holes to fill them back up again https://twitter.com/meditative_man/status/1067607889529860096   Permalink 7:12 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@GareBearTheFair I swear to God @nntaleb is a Bible translator for secularists, and nobody knows it Permalink 5:23 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A Math problem with tricks. pic.twitter.com/Y7LHUPE4Vg Permalink 3:07 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Members of Congress and other rent seekers should NOT have a taxpayer subsidized/sponsored/arranged health plan. They should get one on their own. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/ocasio2018/status/1069007012044918785   Permalink 1:34 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@paulportesi @nntaleb. Taking Nassim’s idea of buildings are designed by architects to impress other architects. Calculus book writtern by math teachers are meant to impress committees or orther math teachers; not for students or practitioners. https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1069321585591492610   Permalink 12:42 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@MKM_Abdul My takeaway from The Incerto by @nntaleb is that most biases are optical illusions that appear when human behavior is viewed from a risk perspective and completely disappear when viewed from a ruin perspective. https://twitter.com/doctorxr/status/1065327150834819073   Permalink 2:46 AM – 2 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from cloudy #Beirut By @nadimbouhabib #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/AD8l4D6gGt Permalink 11:32 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Make sure you don’t compromise your ethics like @paul_salem for oil $$$, because some a***hole like me will never leave you alone for the rest of your life (again, Minority Rule). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1051952580195221504   Permalink 10:49 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@sangai_ To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things (say risk your life or career or reputation for a just cause,or live up to your word,etc) N N Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 9:29 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Something worth discussing: you can’t measure @salilstatistics the role of the x% by using standard estimators; rather from powerlaw tails. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.1791.pdf   https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1069052765870178305   Permalink 9:26 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Deadlifting is the best training for flipping cars. Just make sure you 1) prevent back injury w/the valsava maneuver, 2) use gloves to get a better grip of the side of the car,3) after deadlifting the car quicky change hand position for an explosive push,4) synchronize w/friends. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1068976373870424065   Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Just to make sure you know the @MiddleEastInst is a lobbying firm for the UAE with a mission of regime change/Salafi support/promote war in Yemen. But it is not classified as a lobby firm, but disguized as a “research” firm. Shd be classified as lobbyist https://theintercept.com/2017/08/09/gulf-government-gave-secret-20-million-gift-to-d-c-think-tank/   Permalink 10:21 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Social science means inventing a certain brand of human we can understand.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:55 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb These are false claims. Chips were traditionally fried in beef tallow, duck fat, and/or olive oil. Not in SEED oil that we now know is inflammatory. Not Lindy. @Mangan150 has been producing ample evidence that seed oil marketed as “healthy” is not healthy. pic.twitter.com/RYbXf37e9t Permalink 9:52 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Better to own up to who you tend to envy. Umberto Eco, a man of yuuge erudition. His library, Milan. pic.twitter.com/rVT1sLzja1 Permalink 9:32 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@History_Twerp I often wonder how Westerners and Levantines alike feel when it’s mentioned that Beirut was once a bastion of Greek learning and Roman law. I never get an answer. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mulukhiyyé, kebbé, & french fries in olive oil with visiting ⁦@HsenAndil⁩ and ⁦@Decafquest⁩ in Northern Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/tGSC47KnPq Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb It is much harder to conceal one’s envy than to detect that of others. Permalink 2:46 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony What #IYI’s fail to understand is the more ya nerdify simple tings the more normal people tune ya out… Permalink 9:14 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #tesla #blackswanmobile pic.twitter.com/HV96bwUtzv Permalink 8:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Lecture on spurious correlation/hacking https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=8s   Permalink 1:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Department of using Statistics to BS: or how @paulkrugman promotes Fooled by Randomness. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1068108794838831106   Permalink 1:23 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at M4 (thread) explains why such statements by @PTetlock (and his work) on forecasting are total BS and how they worsen with fat tailedness. pic.twitter.com/F7SrwXYc4w Permalink 8:32 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Except for that hitch they were great forecasters https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1068284498872336384   Permalink 8:30 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@brianalmon The classic intellectual-yet-idiot (as @nntaleb calls them). Physicists can tell you exactly where Mars will be on a particular day a hundred years from now, but “climate scientists” have been making inaccurate predictions for decades. https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/1067986658899877888   Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@beaves_dad Wait a minute! I thought the Left were the peacemakers and the Right were the warmongerers. This doesn’t make sense. Chuck Schumer should be protesting, not Rand Paul. Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@RandPaul ICYMI: Yesterday I joined @CNN to discuss Saudi Arabia and the war in Yemen. Yesterday was a big day. The Senate woke up. The Senate said we aren’t going to keep turning a blind eye to Saudi Arabia abuses or their war in Yemen. pic.twitter.com/Tf6WkdzzYl Permalink 6:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Was asked if the INCERTO was Lindy. Fooled by Randomness, oldest of the INCERTO, is ~19 y old, & steady. This is US weekly sales (excludes UK, foreign). Same pattern in UK, Italy, Russia, etc. Younger books show same pattern. Almost all bestsellers show exponential decline. pic.twitter.com/euonj51LRb Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that stupid people (the IYI, Intellectuals Yet Idiots) are much, much more dangerous to mankind than evil people. Thanks @enzolamberti for the beautiful pamphlet by Carlo Cipolla. pic.twitter.com/75ci7l5PTv Permalink 2:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So, correction: original post shd be .01 of the people not .01% of the pple, as corrected in the 2nd tutorial. Permalink 2:20 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb What the data w @Drcirillo might be showing is vastly worse than expected: people may have a constant level of belligerence, but more and more destructive weapons. WW1 and WW2 are not outliers. (PS We got more analyses from recent data). https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1068072976455819265   Permalink 2:03 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Cleaned up the Pareto Tutorial pic.twitter.com/hySfuzf5mL Permalink 12:53 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Next time you hear someone in the defense industry claiming to help “defend” you & yours against foreign threats, call their BS. Their business is to kill people for money. They have a vested interest in wars. And they own the Foreign Policy “establishment”. https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/1067800784241401856   Permalink 3:14 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Carlos Ghosn was ambushed like an amateur. https://twitter.com/gsdc1/status/1067907924931039232   Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at the conference Dec 10-11 in NY will be exactly why statements like this one by @PTetlock are total BS. Why forecasting without #SkinintheGame is nonsense, how to be rich you need to be a “bad” forecaster. https://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   @spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1067770888056123393   Permalink 9:50 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Tutorial: Many seem interested in the “Pareto” attributes. Here is a short tutorial. pic.twitter.com/yV3R2xICT4 Permalink 8:01 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@AhsanDeliri When you confuse Newtonian mechanics and chaos theory. It’s easy to conflate problem sets. https://twitter.com/scottlinnen/status/1067156975488827392   Permalink 11:00 PM – 26 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what I am looking is for the JOINT distribution of Low heart rate AND high BP; that is, the RARE combination, not comments on either conditions considered separately. For the two conditions appear to be inversely correlated. Thanks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1064898068720615424   Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man Patron Saint Daniel Bernoulli (1 of 2) #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ergodicity pic.twitter.com/vKR99YdWfz Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Medical Puzzle: Wonder about the clinical significance of: + Low resting heart beart rate <60 + High arterial blood pressure 140/85 Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb People have the illusion that Med = Sea. No, Med = Mountains. Gabish? https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1064881210030206976   Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid Nassim Nicholas Taleb keynote at the M4 Forecasting Conference (New York City December 10/11) will be on “Forecasting and Uncertainty:The Challenge of Fat Tailedness” and after popular requests he will also talk about “Tail risks and why he thinks they are worse now than in 2007” pic.twitter.com/ZqntPkUrWx Permalink 5:41 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- Centralized political systems cannot be truly “democratic” https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1064771248264081408   Permalink 2:39 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yoga schmoga. Try strolling. Or napping. #Lindy https://twitter.com/joerogan/status/1064645547095728131   Permalink 5:41 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Back to Riyadh, hoping the Saudi mob doesn’t get all excited again. Permalink 2:57 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5) Hard to prevent idiots from polluting the discource: It is private enterprise that pulled hundreds of millions, if not a billion, out of poverty, not NGOs, not socialism, not redistributive expropriation, and not his beatitude the @Pontifex. pic.twitter.com/UoWJcURHJR Permalink 3:00 AM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4) We are tired of people who want to “do good” the easy way: by destroying the world while collecting a salary. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/904744034673061888   Permalink 12:44 PM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3) I am afraid that the only places that will be functional in ten years are small states that tasted socialism hence vaccinated (& are small enough for scaling), e.g. Georgia, Croatia, Hungary, Czech R, Slovenia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Baltic states, … Permalink 11:13 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2) Those who cause disasters judge themselves by the intentions not by the outcome. ( Socialists will blow us up.) + “First, do no harm” (primum non nocere): the most robust way for the world to get better. + No virtue without courage… https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Alas people have done more harm while trying to “do good” and trying to “improve” the world than by trying to pursue their selfish aims while leaving others alone. Silver rule>> Messianism #vianegativa (Orthodox theology) #naiveinterventionism #virtuesignaling https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1063771232129101824   Permalink 9:26 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t realize he must dump the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria; this support will eventually be his Russian campaign. Permalink 1:45 PM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb SHOCKING! These people http://Optionsellers.com   who blew up were citing me and The Black Swan to propose … selling TAIL options. Unbelievable. Exactly the opposite of what I write. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/XBDoRs0Jya”>  pic.twitter.com/XBDoRs0Jya Permalink 12:41 PM – 17 Nov 2018

NNT Skin In The Game | Talks at Google

Published on Nov 8, 2018
American essayist, scholar and former trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whose work focuses on problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty, discusses his latest book “Skin in the Game”.
Nassim explores the notion that ‘skin in the game’ is necessary for fairness, commercial efficiency, and risk management, and key to making sense of the world at large.

Saudi Barbaria, Saudi Regime, Milan, Nate Silver | Twitter

Nassim Taleb & Naval Ravikant at BlockCon 2018 – Transcript | Michael Malo

@nntaleb Almost 6,000 votes. 54% – 46% https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1063475218038079488   Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Well, looks like investors in http://Optionsellers.com   are liable for more losses than they put in. Also the argument 76% options expire worthless by the 2 charlatans. With Niederhoffer the losses were up to 400% of funds; Refco hid the additional losses in fake accounting. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NZ5Hm89yah”>  pic.twitter.com/NZ5Hm89yah Permalink 9:02 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The megafragility of the country currently known as Saudi Arabia: it is short monstrous amounts of out of the money puts on oil. Just imagine the devastation if oil hits $45, $30, $20, …$10. https://twitter.com/umeshranglani/status/1063701959922745345   Permalink 4:11 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb (I mean tail option selling. You can sell volatility in the body and buy the tails with finite losses, locally concave globally convex. Butterflies plus strangles/Christmas trees.) Permalink 2:21 AM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb No option seller survives … Selling is nonergodic. https://twitter.com/umeshranglani/status/1063701959922745345   Permalink 11:56 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A toast to the future Republic(s) of Najd, Hijaz, and Sharqiyya!!! https://www.wsj.com/articles/cia-concludes-saudi-journalist-was-killed-on-the-crown-princes-order-1542412388   via @WSJ Permalink 4:08 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb This is dishonorable, even for criminal organizations. Saudi regime executes pple following orders. Now no more witness… This break a mafia honor rule. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1063484345535492096   From now on, “Saudi Regime” in place of “Saudi Barbaria” owing to decent pple in Najd/Hijaz/Eastern Permalink 2:31 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So Mr @aubreyclayton, calling a paper “garbage” and posing for a hotshot in probability is nice but your interpretation is … garbage. Read, think, then react. pic.twitter.com/WctHNjwUfA Permalink 1:25 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Mr @aubreyclayton, you didn’t read the paper, do the math. See the note eliminating your confusion. The convergence would then be at 10/90, as the upper bound is the poll. The pull to 50% is because people make 90% odds off polls at .52%. https://twitter.com/aubreyclayton/status/1063538489126465536   Permalink 1:19 PM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My developing heuristic is that a respectable calorie-neutral Flaneuring requires: + In Milan/Bologna/Turin, >18,000 steps (w/desert), + In Rome/Naples/Palermo, >15000 + In New York, > 14,000 + in Tokyo, > 5,000 (portions are small!) pic.twitter.com/kyX6OpifmZ Permalink 9:34 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@amconmag “Paul noted that Saudi Arabia’s role in the Middle East was overall a destructive one. Riyadh, he noted, has spent $100 billion exporting extreme Wahabbist Islam to places as far away as Indonesia and funding madrassas that teach hatred” in other nations. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/rand-paul-saudi-arabia-is-number-one-at-spreading-terror-yemen-iran-russia/   Permalink 9:00 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So this week, while flaneuring in Italy, I was twitter mobbed by + Saudi twitter bots & trolls, & +Klueless Nate’s (@NateSilver538) followers (he has 3 Mil). Silver is nervous for his reputation (losses $6m annually). Who is more stupid? Permalink 8:53 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ketchum in court documents (the Monsanto papers) https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/919748359564312577   Permalink 8:24 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pedophrasty: use of children in the Ketchum signature. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 8:23 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaigns on behalf of Monsanto. Including yours truly. They asked me for a lecture for a yuuuge banking convention. Note the virtue signaling in the signature. pic.twitter.com/177LW5jayG Permalink 8:19 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Comparative study of: 1) Sea urchins (spaghetti) 2) Bottarga (tagliolini) pic.twitter.com/n4PZf89Cub Permalink 4:53 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pandemics are fat tailed (usually) https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 3:42 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yes but bacteria can be more lethal. Permalink 2:20 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Get ready for the next one. Either antibiotic resistant made in hospitals or something multiplicative that travels on British Air … Cc: @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/philipcball/status/1063362984586723328   Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Why is Nate Silver @NateSilver538 misrepresenting my book? in bad faith? https://twitter.com/darius1296/status/1063198970808283136?s=21   Permalink 2:48 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My Milanese friends who also “have friends” making sure it is a “low risk experience”… pic.twitter.com/Wdbu41XXhq Permalink 2:36 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@Valentin_Decker > Pourquoi le conflit israélo-palestinien dure t-il depuis aussi longtemps ? > Pourquoi le Pape est-il en réalité un athée ? > Pourquoi la minorité intolérante l’emporte sur la majorité flexible ? Mon résumé de l’excellent “Jouer sa peau” de @nntaleb : https://valentindecker.com/lectures/jouer-sa-peau-nassim-taleb/   Permalink 1:36 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Costoletta alla Milanese con tartufo bianco & cassoeula pic.twitter.com/K6NctuJpVt Permalink 1:07 PM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb NO MORE FAT TAILS @DrCirillo prevailed upon me to rename Fat Tails “Thick Tails” because Thich Tails is more general than Fat Tails. In some circles Fat Tails mean Power Laws Gaussian->Thick Tails> Subexponential ~Heavy Tails>Fat Tails. pic.twitter.com/igtLFveCEi Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Butthurt Klueless Nate @NateSilver538 lost his marbles in his road rage. Writes I haven’t written a new book since 2001 while insulting me using 2 concepts “IYI” & “skin in the game” that are… from my 2018 book. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062782704159256576   BTW, I still have skin in the game Permalink 9:16 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb But… I am not angry, to the contrary. Just trying to get some entertainment. https://twitter.com/RousselRuthanne/status/1063109687413882881   Permalink 8:43 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3- To summarize, aging is Lindy; what is novel is aging for the non-elite. If anyone can live long, there is no signaling. (BTW you learn more from @holland_tom’s tweets than from uni lecktchurs). https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/918463935011057665   Permalink 8:32 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb In other words, it is quite shabby for @NAteSilver to boast his 2016 performance and hide this: https://twitter.com/RealFacelessMan/status/1062871402133413888   Gabish? Permalink 8:14 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Mr @rZadek, @henryimiller has been fired from Forbes, Project Syndicate and (perhaps thanks to me), the Hoover Institution because it was discovered that Monsanto ghostwrites his articles. Gabish? https://twitter.com/rzadek/status/1063096326433341440   Permalink 7:50 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb In a nutshell, what Klueless Nate @NateSilver538 doesn’t get is the PRINCIPLE that it is not ONE forecast that matters for track record, but ALL the forecasts made per election. That principle we’ve known since De Finetti; I adapted it to continuous time & derived properties. Permalink 7:24 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@tparsi Senator @RandPaul does not hold back. Points out that it is Saudi Arabia and not Iran that is spreading the radicalized version of Islam that has attacked America and radicalized and destabilized much of the Islamic world. Wins him applause at #TAC_Con. Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- Some memory “loss” w/age may be efficient filtering. You get better at predicting what you need to remember. Don’t immediately assume senescence. But bad bones/osteopenia weaken memory in animal models (Karsenti). Most moderns have sick bones at 50. Do heavy weightlifting! Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 1- Retirement is not Lindy as previous generations had a short aging window. Your knowlege is maximal when close to death. Age used to correlate with survival skills, genetic fitness, physical strength, and wisdom. No longer. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1063056382906122240   Permalink 5:18 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Il Saggiatore, publishing house in Milan. pic.twitter.com/dtNJUhAyjJ Permalink 2:38 AM – 15 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A note on serial correlation and the 4 population test pic.twitter.com/nvP9GBGx9V Permalink 8:55 PM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Ossobuco a la Milanese pic.twitter.com/H655lLIsfb Permalink 1:14 PM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Italians lie about Milan. They are instructed to say it is ugly so tourists leave them alone. Milan is so secretive it took half of a dozen visits to figure out the place. Permalink 11:20 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- The Saudi Mob figured out where I am hiding in Riyadh! Procedures to expel me (If I am very lucky)… https://twitter.com/0zzil_/status/1062731824227647490   Permalink 7:46 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb No, klueless Nate @NateSilver538 Forecasting elections isn’t Nate Silver’s thing. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062542399027793920   Permalink 7:43 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Phoenicia-East Med Research Project has started. pic.twitter.com/CXzXV2njDO Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Where I discover that: + Saudis don’t have a public sense of humor; can’t possibly conceive that someone can pull a prank. + You can even let them know it is a prank; they’ll take the rest seriously. + They are incapable of harming anyone outside their consulates, even then. Permalink 4:12 AM – 14 Nov 2018

@drdrasko Brilliant. @nntaleb “Skin in the game: you tend to know a lot of stuff that you wouldn’t guess you need to know from the outside. That’s why machine learning is successful because it has no idea what is outside.” https://twitter.com/googletalks/status/1062459392971415552   Permalink 2:37 PM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- While Saudi mobs kept spouting all manner of epithets (mainly racial), the most mysterious insult for Saudis appears to be “frm the suburbs” “”The barbarian is at the shoe of the master in the suburb O brother of the winter we are out owl of poverty” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1062303526053920769   Permalink 1:24 PM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The story is HILAAAAAAAAAARIOUS. Some of my tweets during the Kashoggi period showed for location Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Someone discovered them yesterday and a total frenzy ensued, with people searching for me there (they still are), and MBS’s electronic army throwing insults. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1062022037416357888   Permalink 10:27 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb When I hear people wondering why I am “qualified” ag “experts” for risks of GMOs, Semitic philology, & ancient UK population. Just as roulette is a branch of probability, not carpentry, genetics & linguistics are minor branches of applied probability. Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1061793657228013568   Permalink 6:16 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The British philosopher Austin said in a tawk that although a double negative in English implies a positive meaning, there is no language in which a double positive implies a negative. Sydney Morgenbesser responded: “Yeah, yeah.” https://twitter.com/QuikQuak/status/1062336636535689217   Permalink 5:53 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I just realized that Milan isn’t Mediterranean, that is *butter not olive oil* (according to the Gallic Wars); perhaps it would be anathema to consume seppia there. Osso buco would be preferable. Permalink 5:23 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yeah, yeah, yeah… https://www.wsj.com/articles/khashoggi-tape-doesnt-implicate-saudi-prince-says-john-bolton-1542113090   via @WSJ Permalink 5:18 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Someone like NNT putting himself on the line with Monsanto, Saudi Arabia and others doing nothing and just cheering him on; Cheering for the military while you sit safely at home watching football… Permalink 4:48 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@Complexity_Labs pic.twitter.com/Zj1RrIXgt5 Permalink 4:08 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Friends, time for something serious. What is the best squid ink restaurant (nero di seppia) in Milan? Thanks! Permalink 3:49 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Saudis are still not catching me… But they are producing mysterious insults worth examining in a comparative literature class. Most insist “they don’t care about me” (an insult), some claim I am a Shiite in disguize and I am “from the suburbs” (an insult). pic.twitter.com/8SHcPKBDGu Permalink 3:17 AM – 13 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My new correspondents/ pen pals. https://twitter.com/davesthomson/status/1062096201560993792   Permalink 1:42 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Pple believe in a historical trend agst social conservatism. No: history is punctuated w/spontaneous emergence of puritanism. Holding a baloon under water: From Roman mores to Victorian prudishness, pre-Islamic Arabia,1970s Iran, & 1960s Maghreb to … ISIS. Next…France. Permalink 1:40 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They are reaaaaaaaaaally annoyed. https://twitter.com/sahli_reem/status/1062090493213982720   Permalink 1:12 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And the usual (flattering) death threats. https://twitter.com/Mohamed20048262/status/1062085176484859904   Permalink 12:54 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/Yarimatahari/status/1062082319111077888   Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The reasons the Saudis haven’t been able to catch me (so far): https://twitter.com/FattestFatTony/status/1062075946587570177   Permalink 12:21 PM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They are reaaaallllly looking for me in Riyadh. Many Saudi have alerted the authorities. I may be subjected to beheading… https://twitter.com/theproudsaudi1/status/1062007083422416896   Permalink 11:43 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb HILARIOUS The Saudis are after me thinking I am in Saudi Arabia! https://twitter.com/fa_alshehrii/status/1062009057484009473   Permalink 8:39 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@JonathanWaxman1 @nntaleb I think you will like this. Exposing shills who hide in ‘Think Tanks’ by forcing them to declare in which games they actually have skin. https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1061744315012128768   Permalink 1:05 AM – 12 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Improved on the paper pic.twitter.com/iDkcp9LS4N Permalink 5:31 PM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The sucker problem is to think that those for whom you feel compassion would also feel compassion for those weaker and more afflicted than they are. Permalink 1:36 PM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The checks go to administrators, tenured faculty, and real estate developers. (Universities exploit adjucts & grad students.) Give your money to starving adjuncts. https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/1061431560010940416   Permalink 8:10 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The best summary of my central idea. https://twitter.com/rj7050/status/1061425555097161730   Permalink 1:37 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@Ekaitzsaies The Basque Meet-Up for discussing @nntaleb ‘s ideas was one of the most inspiring experiences thanks to everyone that took part in it. Maestro Taleb you should join us next time! @GuruAnaerobic @jacoporomei @urtatses pic.twitter.com/fpntYdTycg Permalink 1:06 AM – 11 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Astrology is Lindy; it reincarnated as economics/social science. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1061411581475610626   Permalink 5:20 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A pol. science education from 50 y ago (Corm’s) teaches EXACTLY backwards: nation-state, centralization, size, Arabization, etc. “Balkanization” is meant to be bad. These pple have never heard of Switzerland/subsidiarity. Will cancel/not renew my subscription to @LOrientLeJour https://twitter.com/LOrientLeJour/status/1061237966989938688   Permalink 4:46 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Time to pick the format for both the book and the logo of the new STEM Academic publishing house. pic.twitter.com/2s8fajuEV3 Permalink 3:44 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Indeed Anatolia https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1061360811535405056   Permalink 12:54 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb That’s Anatolia for you. https://twitter.com/lecths/status/1061349668880310273   Permalink 12:46 PM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I think I got it right plus or minus n^p I am now a co-author on a technical paper in genetics. pic.twitter.com/Cztd4k3IIO Permalink 7:06 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb “Making sense and being right are not the same ting” (sic) — Fat Tony #skininthegame https://twitter.com/shouvanikc/status/1061259246409519104   Permalink 6:47 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A Twelver Shiite friend attending service at Saint Nicholas’ Greek Orthodox Cathedral in Beirut, pointed out at the 12 apostles and calmly said: “you too”. pic.twitter.com/NMwGpQWuBj Permalink 6:46 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@fpenido Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb @paulkrugman and @elonmusk The main difference between a BS vendor (Krugman) and a doer (Musk) is that a doer, necessarily, has scars. #IntelectualYetIdiot https://twitter.com/leandroruschel/status/1061243652163452930   Permalink 5:32 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@BLebnene adonish nka7ash/nsha7at mnl yoga via @jadabdala check it out and retweet! w l 5ér la 2eddém #lebanese #lebanon #lebneene cc: @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jadabdala/status/1061241508219797504   Permalink 5:00 AM – 10 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Why the best surgeons might look like butchers. pic.twitter.com/p1UbKDjGbl Permalink 10:20 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Everyone seems to be making the mistake of ergodicity: The rich of 2015 are NOT necessarily those of 2000. In the U.S. 85% of the rich were not so in earlier periods. These static analyses by economists and psychologists are BS. I noted that only pple w #Skininthegame get it. https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1058853678512259074   Permalink 9:37 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Used to be seductive & thrilling for thinkers to counter the then repressive Church dogma, w/the appeal of forbidden fruit. It’s starting to be more seductive to counter the currently repressive PC dogma than conform. University monokultchurists are too stupid to realize it. Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My first technical foray into genetics. Encountered the 4-population test, deriving the “estimation error”. pic.twitter.com/n959cJcxXn Permalink 5:49 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The camera adds 12.6 pounds. Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Skin in the Game” | Talks at Google https://youtu.be/uv6KLbkvua8   via @YouTube Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Nov 2018

@ProbFact Inferring where data came from based on tail probabilities https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2018/07/17/attribution/   Permalink 1:15 PM – 8 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And odds it came via Syriac pic.twitter.com/VTj4CVsZSg Permalink 9:59 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: Borj ( برج ) [TOWER] comes from Πύργος itself from the Urartian Burgana (unless it came directly from Burgama. Permalink 9:56 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Deadlifting trains you to lift heavy objects, not so much to ski hard slopes. Permalink 8:13 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So to clarify, the statement is: “You learn disproportionally more from tails of distributions than you do from their center.” Gabish? Permalink 8:12 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@PithyThought I’m often simultaneously annoyed by your aura of arrogance and impressed by the clarity of your reasoning. Permalink 7:29 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Not my point @yaneerbaryam. My point is that if you want to practice skiing, you learn disproportionally more from hard runs (tail events) than from slopes for beginner. Just as you gain more from lifting extremes (from convexity) than regular weights. Revise that stuff. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1060205836595855360   Permalink 7:21 PM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 8- Pple forget that history is thousands of years and give you salient anecdotes that effectively dilute when seen locally (as per year or lifetime) Always funny to see pple like @AdamRutherford lecture people on pseudoscience then miss elementary things from high school math. Permalink 10:03 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 7- The above thread shows why journos are BS vendors, even with a PhD. cc:@AdamRutherford https://twitter.com/AdamRutherford/status/1060101363621879808   Permalink 9:27 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- This argument explains why historians talking about migration rates in the middle ages > .00005 are wrong (that is close to zero; today’s rates are yuuuge by comparison). A tiny rate of migration multiplies… pic.twitter.com/az2B0AwMOZ Permalink 9:20 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- This argument explains why historians talking about migration rates in the middle ages > .00005 are wrong (that is close to zero; today’s rates are yuuuge by comparison). A tiny rate of migration multiplies… pic.twitter.com/az2B0AwMOZ Permalink 9:20 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb En politique, comme en amour Ni jamais, ni toujours. (In politics as in love, never say never, never say forever). A huge surprise. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1060193577861595136   Permalink 9:05 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ Announcing the M4 Forecasting Conference to be held on December 10/11 in New York. The Conference will elaborate on the findings of M4 Competition that will be discussed and elaborated by prominent speakers from leading business firms and top universities (See Day 1 program). pic.twitter.com/yjSIt2qkK4 Permalink 6:34 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@mathtick I think this discussion is lost in semantics and politics … I think @nntaleb is not saying small migration in 1000 years, instead saying a low rate of migration PER GENERATION PER PERSON hence the sustained genetic diversity *across* regions. Please correct if I’m wrong. Permalink 2:46 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5- What the globalist idiots don’t realize is that migration is as counterintuitive as compound interest. Had we had a migration rate similar to what we have today over 5-10 C, there would be no differenciation between populations. Very similar to entropy. pic.twitter.com/nZWoS02S9k Permalink 12:41 AM – 7 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- Historians, anecdote-gatherers, and other entertainers are way behind; genetic evidence is like paternity tests. The last 5 years brought a yuuuge overhaul of beliefs. https://twitter.com/patrick_wyman/status/1060066901873745925?s=21   Permalink 11:59 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3- Tiny rates of migration such as .5% per century can lead to big cumulative effects such as Subsaharan gene flow into Egypt … Permalink 11:44 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2- Even places that underwent yuuuuuge ethnocultural changes such as Turkey show little gene flow. Turkey has tiny Turkic genes. Historians are clueless about migrations. Permalink 11:34 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb There were no migrations in the Middle ages except towards empty steppes. #genetics #scholarshipwithoutBSishardIknow https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1059516283916558336   Permalink 8:42 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@SamParkerSenate Believe it or not, this was my campaign slogan & theme earlier this year : Make American Government Local Again. #MAGLA pic.twitter.com/1rz9Ovgp05 Permalink 2:43 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Skin in the game https://twitter.com/GKCdaily/status/1059929363334991874   Permalink 2:35 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@EvanMcM About 5 years ago, I was incensed by reading @nntaleb ‘s suggestion that one can be ‘“over-informed”, that newspapers were useless. Now, I think perhaps he didn’t convey this point strongly enough. Permalink 1:45 PM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb French fries cooked in extra virgin local olive oil. Beware seed oil. (Northern Phoenicia) . cc: @Mangan150 (corrected earlier typo) pic.twitter.com/kXN8G2pv8h Permalink 10:54 AM – 6 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump’s attitude to Iran: EITHER + Trump is a businessman not interested in situations rotting & permanent 40y tensions, trying to get a better deal than Obama. He is just bargaining. OR + Trump is serving the neocon agenda plus that of some other states. Permalink 2:56 PM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump’s attitude to Iran: EITHER + Trump is a businessman not interested in situations rotting & permanent 40y tensions, trying to get a better deal than Obama. He is just bargaining. OR + Trump is serving the neocon agenda plus that of some other states. Permalink 2:56 PM – 5 Nov 2018

@baumhedlund #BaumHedlundLaw Attorneys Discuss Monsanto Roundup Litigation at UCLA Law Event https://www.baumhedlundlaw.com/11-18-bhag-roundup-litigation-ucla/   Permalink 2:08 PM – 5 Nov 2018

@shikhar394 Nero: “Signore Ingeniere Tony, some of these tie-wearers are very rich, even richer than you.” Tony: “Nero, you sucker. Don’t be fooled by money. These are just numbers. Being self-owned is a state of mind.” @nntaleb #antifragile Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Choice? Narcissism of small differences… pic.twitter.com/xS9ByzmJOB Permalink 6:09 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/2985525/88078?stw=2   Permalink 1:36 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/2985525/88078?stw=2   Permalink 1:36 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 12- If you have to “defend” your relationship with the Saudis… https://twitter.com/RTGBusiness/status/1059369028123275264   Permalink 1:00 AM – 5 Nov 2018

@iosif_lazaridis Max entropy prediction is no prediction. https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/414759-nate-silver-says-dems-could-retake-house-or-not-both-extremely   Permalink 5:46 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Footnotes: 1) An interesting point: you can also use the maximum entropy approach to get the same result as my election paper/problem with Klueless Nate. 2) The interesting part of the ArXiv paper isn’t elections, but binary martingales. This can be applied to other processes. pic.twitter.com/4pRDSrtLCV Permalink 3:48 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@serb_superb Gems like this from @nntaleb are part of the reason I’m on twitter. Peterson would need 15 minutes of a podcast to convey the same information. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009740238053412864   Permalink 3:38 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5- FOR THE RECORD I am not translating @DineshDSouza’s point that it was 50-50: I ALSO understood ~50-50 DIRECTLY from Silver’s “extremely” in the linked “The Hill”. Gabish? Permalink 3:15 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4- Things are actually worse: that @NateSilver538 doesn’t get that if BOTH X & Non-X are “extremely possible = Probability converging to 50-50 is EXACTLY my problem w/his misunderstanding of probability in forecasting, & point of my paper. Gabish? https://twitter.com/coachglove/status/1059217783886503937   Permalink 3:04 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb When someone says are event and its opposite are extremely possible I infer either 1) 50/50 or 2) the predictor is shamelessly hedging, in other words, BS. Permalink 2:18 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb (cont) which explain why @DineshDSouza is right: you don’t change a forecast from 80% to 50% under uncertainty. Second time klueless Nate Silver makes a mistake. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/CD5FEhVMVf”>  pic.twitter.com/CD5FEhVMVf Permalink 1:56 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Nate Silver just proved a second election in a row he doesn’t know “how math works”. (cont) https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059149034693316608   Permalink 1:53 PM – 4 Nov 2018

@kalltvatten Reading “skin in the game” by @nntaleb and this section is just hilarious because I went on a date with a IYI (intellectual yet idiot) who did INDEED have The black swan on his shelf pic.twitter.com/X6OnloHSky Permalink 4:58 AM – 4 Nov 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tZqDIBJxdH Permalink 11:12 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Typo, 1940-2018 Permalink 11:07 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Most robust definition of the fraudster/charlatan: Someone who 1) claims to be what he’s not, or 2) misrepresents what he can deliver. @davidboxenhorn Permalink 12:04 AM – 3 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Economists’ only empirically verified expertise is selling themselves to the (paying) public as “experts”. https://twitter.com/VidStimac/status/1058415675457392640   Permalink 11:02 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Socialism, def: a political system where decisions are made by people with advanced degrees in social “science”. Permalink 10:00 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb They used a very incompetent translator. https://twitter.com/ksamofaen/status/1058457578978586627   Permalink 3:08 PM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Nicolas Ghosn, MP, 1940-1988 (my uncle, mother’s brother) pic.twitter.com/MHN0R9Cpp4 Permalink 10:45 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 11- Elon Musk, finally. https://twitter.com/AmbuyaJohn/status/1058413418665967617   Permalink 10:42 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb A society is as advanced as its treatment of its weak, its handicapped and incapacitated. Permalink 10:13 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The Monsanto shill Keith Kloor @keithkloor was also part of the smear campaign by Monsanto against yours truly. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1058343215886004225   Permalink 6:28 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@joshua_landis “Throughout Yemen’s three-and-a-half-year civil war, the Emiratis have been as brutal and reckless as the Saudis….” – by @DefPriorities & Richard Sokolsky https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/10/30/other-murderous-gulf-pub-77606?utm_source=carnegieshare   Permalink 6:07 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid An excellent description of our PLOS ONE paper ( https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889  ) finding that the most accurate ML method was less accurate than the least accurate statistical one. @teatchthemachine https://twitter.com/TeachTheMachine/status/1057333666202832896   Permalink 12:45 AM – 2 Nov 2018

@HinduLiberty Indians got diabetes in 20th century because they * stopped eating lots of ghee * stopped using healthy oils like coconut * stopped fasting on sacred days like ekadashi * started eating lots of sugary stuff * started using unhealthy oils https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1058006677847506945?s=19   Permalink 5:02 PM – 1 Nov 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Here’s @EverydayRD threatening @CrossFit gyms for telling clients not to drink soda. Same dietitian Coke & the Kellen Company pay to defend soda. Kellen does Coke & Pepsi propaganda (the CCC) & promotes laws that would make CrossFit’s affiliates illegal (CREP). More coming … https://twitter.com/EverydayRD/status/1057970570946523136   Permalink 6:24 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb You are not what you eat; you are what what you eat eats. 1st order vegetarians — cows, Californians, history majors 2nd order vegetarians — eat only 1st order vegetarians: (some) Semitic religions (w/only gras fed chicken), lions … Nonvegetarians: eat porc, crustaceous … Permalink 6:16 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb How about letting people research your life in dusty archives… Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Cutting an olive tree in the Ancient World was punishable bu death. https://twitter.com/bbassem7/status/1057772976353947649   Permalink 4:34 AM – 1 Nov 2018

@nntaleb And PR efforts are thwarted… You can’t buy a politician for 14k no more. @Jaffer22915438 https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1057656897489252353?s=21   Permalink 5:38 PM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The @black_swan_man sent Halloween masks to a collection of people (includes a bust of Seneca sitting in a museum) pic.twitter.com/9z4x2h4Swn Permalink 11:11 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Life imitates art. @nntaleb @BloombergTV https://twitter.com/ErikSchatzker/status/1057668193953767425   Permalink 9:23 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@ErikSchatzker I’m trying to make sense of this http://blackswanman.com  . Especially the appearance I make on p. 19. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wv1be50pmU”>  pic.twitter.com/Wv1be50pmU Permalink 6:54 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You can RETROSPECTIVELY measure the *real-IQ* of a blabbering intellectual from his/her historical grap of: – Bitcoin – Tesla – Trump – GMOs etc. Permalink 4:58 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 9- Saudi Arabia boycotted by high profile athletes. https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1057585661920862210   Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2018

@zerohedge Taleb: Those Idiots Who Emphatically Told Me “He Will Last 3 Months At Best” https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-30/taleb-those-idiots-who-emphatically-told-me-he-will-last-3-months-best   Permalink 1:25 PM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding. Permalink 6:05 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb If you want to lecktshur, do not act as if you are giving a lecktshur. Those slick, glib, and smooth are charlatans, or, worse, TED speakers. You are not an actor. As Seneca wrote, philosophers shd not act like mountebanks, *perform* on the stage. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1055648535876722688   Permalink 4:39 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An illustration of how little journalists & “intellectuals” understand the world: their predictions of events related to Trump’s presidency. How many people I didn’t know were idiots have emphatically told me “he will last 3 months at best”… https://twitter.com/Fuctupmind/status/1056971162566250496   Permalink 3:41 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@ektrit Another reminder that being “christian” in Greece and East Europe means “NOT muslim”, nothing to do with Christ’s resurrection and Theosis. It is negative identity coming from the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire. https://twitter.com/ekathimerini/status/1057216561931534336   Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Oct 2018

@nntaleb They had recently requested asylum in the US. (Sorry to cite the NYT) https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/29/nyregion/sisters-dead-river-saudi-arabia.html   Permalink 6:18 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You cannot make this up. Two dissident sisters who fled Saudi Barbaria are found dead in … NY. And the Saudi Consulate is now involved in … helping. https://twitter.com/KSAconsulateNY/status/1056737353522397184   Permalink 6:10 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Since Semitic Philology is open today, where is the connection between KNOSSOS and KNS? Were the Minoan place-names Semitic? Permalink 2:06 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@catoletters MSNBC and Daily Beast feature UAE lobbyist David Rothkopf with no disclosure: a scandalous media-wide practice https://interc.pt/2q6OS7U   by @ggreenwald Permalink 12:35 PM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 8- Indeed the train has left the (first) station. https://twitter.com/fritzsternjr/status/1056956961902784513   Permalink 11:43 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@XFaure Poke @nntaleb . Seems like people are rediscovering antifragility | When one New Zealand school tossed its playground rules and let students risk injury, the results were surprising http://nationalpost.com/wcm/d33f1216-bc3b-40e6-abc5-f278792a3717   via @nationalpost Permalink 8:00 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Haven’t tried to solve this, but can’t resist posting it. pic.twitter.com/XJsC8zs0UM Permalink 7:15 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 7- Booing in sports… A trend is forming. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1056908115369697286   Permalink 7:14 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Explained in #Antifragile why top-down “globalization” a la Krugman increases risks. Monstrously increases risks. Ricardian comparative advantage blows up under model error. Economists know practically nothing about risk. pic.twitter.com/pqBlSOIimS Permalink 6:10 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An explanation of the mistake (confusing a synagogue for a church): in Medieval Arabic, it’s the same word; synagogue is masculine, Kniss; church is feminine Knissa. Same root as Knesseth (Israeli parliament), KNS=to gather. https://twitter.com/milenarodban/status/1056711569495728135   Permalink 5:22 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @bloomberg pic.twitter.com/FPS9Km7Th5 Permalink 4:46 AM – 29 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Read stuff in translation, but it’s more honest to work w/bilingual versions: Montaigne is now even translated from Medieval to Modern French (which was a no-no in my childhood). The more organic the language, the more it changes. Arabic & Syriac are same across millennia. Permalink 3:11 PM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Never take cooking advice from a waiter. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/923848138493956096   Permalink 11:48 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Remember that Seneca was a trader. Train for all kind of hits you can take. Above all don’t read sh*t about Seneca by nerd/academics & other nonrisk takers. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1056511292658331648   Permalink 10:29 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A possible solution pic.twitter.com/NOs9XfSJyE Permalink 10:27 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Another amuse-mind for Sunday PM. pic.twitter.com/MJqbrFEBmk Permalink 9:31 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #stoics #Seneca #Halloween pic.twitter.com/UL0SoMqS7q Permalink 4:41 AM – 28 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 6- The trend is your friend. h/t @amrojasmendoza https://twitter.com/ajoykelly/status/1054806048765329408   Permalink 6:20 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@AlanDersh The impulse to seek partisan advantage from a tragedy like the Tree of Life shooting seems as irresistible as it is irresponsible. Permalink 5:46 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 5- The trend of negative benefits for doing business with Saudi Barbaria is firming up (i.e. the negative signaling costs of doing business exceed the benefits). https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/187283-181027-macron-merkel-back-europe-coordination-on-arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia   Permalink 2:39 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Statins: Benefit overstated – Harm covered up Pesticides: Benefit overstated – Harm covered up Smoking: Harm covered up Grains: Benefits overstated – harm denied Margarine: Benefit overstated – worse than butter Depressants: Benefit overstated – Harm denied What else currently? Permalink 2:31 PM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My attempt pic.twitter.com/JTsLJ3URNx Permalink 8:41 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Seemingly these “idiots who think in labels” don’t understand the aphorism, that is, don’t get the difference between *expressing* with the use of labels and *thinking* in labels. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1048072471063220224   Permalink 7:18 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saturday morning math in memory of @CutTheKnotMath (courtesy the Romanian Math Magazine) pic.twitter.com/g3oJNWOd6y Permalink 6:25 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@mintotsai “Soul In The Game” Taleb (@nntaleb) explains how one person like an Elon Musk (@elonmusk) can transform entire industries. pic.twitter.com/C4q6lMAnDn Permalink 6:13 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@peter_sarris The first English translation of the Novels of the Emperor Justinian based on the original Greek – and the first historical and legal commentary in any language – the perfect X Mas present for the discerning Byzantinist… pic.twitter.com/sEBD4NXVd8 Permalink 3:11 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@spyrosmakrid The Five Major Objectives of the M4 Forecasting Conference: New York CIty, December 10 and 11 http://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   For information about the comparisons of ML and Stat forecasting methods for the M3 Competition https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   for the M4 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018300785   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/I74LnHOOUI”>  pic.twitter.com/I74LnHOOUI Permalink 1:16 AM – 27 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 4- https://twitter.com/occuworld/status/1055944966357299200?s=21   Permalink 3:13 PM – 26 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/Z70czTb8Lj Permalink 6:33 AM – 26 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 3- A possible trend https://twitter.com/decmanagement/status/1055704125613240321   Permalink 4:31 AM – 26 Oct 2018

@davidboxenhorn One small step towards @nntaleb’s recommendations. It should be a lifetime ban, but it’s progress http://time.com/4652703/president-trump-lobbying-ban   Permalink 11:18 PM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2- Already started: a witch hunt of those doing business with Saudi Barbaria. https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1055582317685760001   Permalink 4:55 PM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ergodicity, again. Skin in the Game explain why dynamic things should NEVER be looked at statically. https://twitter.com/EconTalker/status/1055239759776374784   Permalink 3:16 AM – 25 Oct 2018

@davidboxenhorn Green Tea: good for you Green Tea Capsules: bad for you Scale matters. https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-45971416   Permalink 1:57 AM – 25 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria will be doomed when shunning it becomes a form of virtue signaling. Permalink 4:03 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Introducing REWRI instructors to squid ink! Looking for the reactions… pic.twitter.com/RMLj9p84O3 Permalink 3:46 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Pol Principles under complexity The project is growing pic.twitter.com/t5iWwz4jlV Permalink 1:43 PM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Will be doing a lecktshur by Skype. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1055122682956656640   Permalink 11:11 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb made an important technical point: the Italians even stole the word for wine from the Phoenicians! Permalink 9:06 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik The technical definition of fat tails, guys pic.twitter.com/xvNIR5MlUS Permalink 8:28 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Gabrial Mathy you are a fraud. Knightian risks are dealt with via metaprobability. I AM FED UP WITH ECONOMISTS MAKING FALSE CLAIMS ABOUT MY WORK. pic.twitter.com/KUkRjOwNKE Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Yuuuuuuuuuge punishment. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1055077847390437376   Permalink 5:51 AM – 24 Oct 2018

@ngriffin360 Life is.. #longgamma #antifragile @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/rhErBRtxQ3 Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ya LebTwitter Shu bit7ébbo nsammé l lgha taba3na? @oldlevantine @Extrachelle @HsenAndil @PZalloua @961Aleh @lebaneselingui1 @BLebnene @turlevnon Permalink 6:50 PM – 22 Oct 2018

Taleb Says World Is More Fragile Today Than in 2007 | Bloomberg

Published on Oct 31, 2018
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, scientific advisor at Universa Investments, discusses the factors causing global fragility, hidden liabilities in global markets, and what he sees as safe trades in the current market. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Markets.”

Monsanto, McKinsey, Shihabi, Saudi Barbaria, Pedophrasty, Haley, Frum, GMOs | Twitter

Yesterday I received the @Wolfram Award (for computational mathematics). It’s not an award. It’s an accreditation: a statement by the smartest person I know about (@stephen_Wolfram) certifying: “As far as I can see, for computational probability, N N Taleb is not an idiot”.

@ngriffin360 Life is.. #longgamma #antifragile @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/rhErBRtxQ3 Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ya LebTwitter Shu bit7ébbo nsammé l lgha taba3na? @oldlevantine @Extrachelle @HsenAndil @PZalloua @961Aleh @lebaneselingui1 @BLebnene @turlevnon Permalink 6:50 PM – 22 Oct 2018

@RobertKennedyJr Momentous news on #Monsanto appeal! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/22/monsanto-cancer-roundup-weedkiller-judge-denies-appeal   Permalink 5:25 PM – 22 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Real World Risk #9. 55 pple. Lunch break. pic.twitter.com/2GhOaMdNJn Permalink 10:18 AM – 22 Oct 2018

@yhazony What I learned from this: There’s a morality that attends the study and dissemination of ideas. A professionalism, if you like. You don’t shoot your mouth off when you don’t know what you are talking about. You don’t write essays and give speeches about books you haven’t read. /4 Permalink 5:28 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese Language books in process. https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1054102008360247298   Permalink 2:24 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Many people make the mistake of engaging shills with arguments. Never take at face value what a paid shill like that despicable @aliShihabi says. Gabish? Permalink 12:40 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic A big reason why normal pple like @nntaleb is that he calls out the experts & ivory tower intelligentsia. The sort of people who call the normal person ‘populist’, ‘pseudoscientific’,etc. NNT turns the tables (with proof, maths & superior thought). He PROVES they r pseudo-experts https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1054017843136749574   Permalink 10:53 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For the record, Mr @aliShihabi, Saudi Gov. lobbyist, fully aware of my vocal criticism, has tried to infiltrate a restaurant dinner party I was giving, supposedly to “talk to me”. I never talk to shills. I cannot be bribed by shills. I am uncompromising: I despise shills. Permalink 9:42 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@Ashu_2017 As expected, Saudi govt was keeping a close tab on critics. Impossible not to marvel at the courage of @nntaleb for his frequent attacks on the Saudi state. #Khashoggi https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/us/politics/saudi-image-campaign-twitter.html   Permalink 8:45 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@Joyce_Karam Oh, McKinsey is “horrified” that its 9 page report to #Saudi naming dissidents was used to go after dissidents: https://twitter.com/McKinsey/status/1053838356826808320   Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@aClassicLiberal Sweden has higher wealth inequality than the US, @nntaleb explains it in “Inequality and Skin in the Game”: “Any form of control of the wealth process–typically instigated by bureaucrats –tended to lock people with privileges in their state of entitlement” http://bit.ly/2Jd2reY   Permalink 7:43 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Most people who complain about inequality are those rich, but narcissistic and envious of the strata above them: “I Joseph S, am smart, but why is he richer?” Chapter in Skin in the Game: https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is typical @JosephEStiglitz probability-blind BS: inequality in the US measured STATICALLY is higher than Eu. Completely misses on the DYNAMICS, and on the mismeasurement of inequality under Fat Tails. See #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/sciam/status/1053000745459638277   Permalink 6:38 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@SituationO In the memory of massacre of Aishiyeh(Maronite town in #Lebanon )that took place Between 19th to 21st of October 1976 More than 70 Christians(7 under the age of 16) were killed & one was burned alive by PLO Fatah &Saika. The village was depopulated & used as PLO base of operation Permalink 6:33 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words, @McKinsey effectively DID help Saudi Arabia track dissidents. Despicable. pic.twitter.com/aAdJ6v5nsQ Permalink 6:04 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My 2015 accusation: Since Sep 11 we encouraged an “ally” to groom Salafi terrorists and spread intolerance while fighting terrorism in the wrong place. https://www.politico.eu/article/the-saudi-wahhabis-are-the-real-foe-islamic-terrorists-salafi-violence/   Permalink 5:59 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Bigoteering: Christians banned from areas/highways; identifying dress code for Saudis; tortures journos; ethnic cleanses Syria; beheads atheists/apostates/critics/LBGT; treats women/Asian workers like cattle …then send Twitter agents to mark critics as “racist”. @jack Permalink 5:39 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@gcfr20 A probability problem for recreation (cc @nntaleb, @CutTheKnotMath, @_eylem_99) pic.twitter.com/b5RCR5Fh4j Permalink 5:54 PM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This Saudi shill is transforming the abominable crime by Saudi Barbaria into a U.S. domestic affair. Despicable man. https://twitter.com/alishihabi/status/1053688547667046400   Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This Saudi shill is transforming the abominable crime by Saudi Barbaria into a U.S. domestic affair. Despicable man. https://twitter.com/aliShihabi/status/1053688547667046400   Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb One possible route for the solution. pic.twitter.com/E6ncDPDyPY Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@AshokaHolla #UnitedStates with an economy of $20Tr financially need not pander to a rogue nation for a meagre annual $32 billion bilateral trade. @ianbremmer @nntaleb https://twitter.com/AshokaHolla/status/1053611434708553728   Permalink 4:40 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saturday Morning Math Exercise: in remembrance of our friend @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/WGwbZQju6g Permalink 4:36 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb After 17 days of denial, the Saudis accept their role in the death of the journalist, saying “it was just an argument that got physical”. After 17 years, the Saudis will accept their role in 9/11, saying “it was just a flying lesson that went wrong”. https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1053482545797578752   Permalink 8:17 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The Saudi affair can lead to a (positive) minority rule effect: an intransigeant minority boycotting Saudi Barbaria & shaming those who do can rule. Anyone remotely associated with Saudi Barbaria will be punished. Hope to see the minority rule at work! https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 7:14 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In “Skin in the Game”, I state that there is no group that violates morality rules and symmetry (fundamental ethics) as much as the neocons. Permalink 5:30 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mr Krugman @paulkrugman has been effectively wrong on everything (markets, bitcoin, technology, trade, GDP, FX, elections, history…): the real world is not something he has ever managed to grasp. So, predictably, he now supports the neocons (Iraq, Lybia, Syria, etc.) https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1053274998742441985   Permalink 5:21 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb How did you know? Please don’t tell anyone. Permalink 5:15 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Details: pic.twitter.com/jM80A8bUaY Permalink 3:14 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Yesterday I received the @Wolfram Award (for computational mathematics). It’s not an award. It’s an accreditation: a statement by the smartest person I know about (@stephen_Wolfram) certifying: “As far as I can see, for computational probability, N N Taleb is not an idiot”. pic.twitter.com/IcM3gMw14G Permalink 5:08 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@GenEngNetwork In order to save #glyphosate, the Monsanto corp has undertaken an effort to destroy the UN cancer agency IARC, by any means possible. Here is the part one of an investigation from Le Monde. Stéphane Horel, Stéphane Foucart #monsantopapers #glyphosate https://www.ehn.org/monsanto-glyphosate-cancer-smear-campaign-2509710888.html   Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb I don’t understand the symbolism of the rooftop yet but I will be there anyway. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1053220609331748864   Permalink 4:23 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #theblackswanman #blackswanman #Nietzsche #Halloween pic.twitter.com/7fh1FIdqZZ Permalink 2:42 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@SwedeWhite Watching @nntaleb tinker with probability w/ @WolframResearch Mathematica at #WolframTechConference—so cool pic.twitter.com/0rbxrDOo8m Permalink 1:05 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb At any rate I will start my lecture with: Delenda Saudi Barbaria pic.twitter.com/JvAICZU9Ok Permalink 12:39 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@DavidVStewart As I reflect on Roman history and the work of @nntaleb , I realize that what made the great generals great was not some special knowledge of strategy, but the ability to exploit opportunities, optionality, and keep asymmetry in their favor. Permalink 11:46 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In about one hour I am slated to lecture on “how to tinker with probability using Mathematica.” Should I use the platform to discuss Saudi Barbaria instead? What should I talk about? Permalink 11:46 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb EMPIRICAL RIGOR Will all due respect to @NickKristof, BS vendor @jk_rowling, Kashoggi was a defender of HIS OWN free speech, not that of others. K supported the beheading of Nimr, the Shiite cleric who dared to speak up. Disclosure: I met Khashoggi in Riyadh in 2011. pic.twitter.com/LYTM8vrnk4 Permalink 6:40 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Whenever Saudi Barbaria has a problem, they spend more money on spin and propaganda. https://twitter.com/Saudi_Source/status/1051666466540531712   Permalink 4:44 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb “A single journalist is a tragedy; ten thousand Yemenis is a statistic”. Joseph Stalin, 1949 Permalink 4:16 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Now we are making progress. If I entered the Saudi consulate and beat up one of the prediabetic sheikhs, would the NY police intervene? So if they can call the police on me( by (“authorizing”), not the reverse, there is an asymmetry. Permalink 2:01 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb So, in other words, if the Saudis had guillotines in their consulates to streamline future processes, it’s no problem? Permalink 1:49 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Say I showed up at the Saudi Consulate in New York to get a visa to vacation in one of their fabulous resorts, & they hacked me to pieces. Assume there is no evidence I am a US. citiizen. Would the New York police need to ask Saudi Barbaria for permission to investigate? Permalink 1:35 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Stop the shills! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-10-17/ex-amb-indyk-says-u-s-must-keep-saudis-on-positive-agenda-video   Permalink 1:13 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb On my way to the conference! @WolframResearch https://twitter.com/WolframResearch/status/1052629643302490112   Permalink 12:07 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There will be an inexpensive paperback version later in 2019-2020. The vol 1 of the Technical Incerto sh be out in 2-3 months (color, hardback, my own design), subsidized. Permalink 10:20 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is the hardcover (much more expensive than the paperback), coming out in March 2019. Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Last version of the next Box Set. Aesthetics count. Which is why I write in LaTeX. pic.twitter.com/skCXDpOaMA Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My problem with Saudi Barbaria is not domestic. They can have the regime they want. It is that the country is dangerous to the rest of the world: + support for terrorism/911, + spread of Wahabi doctrine, + ethnic cleansing in Syria, + propaganda, infl over U.S. policy etc. https://twitter.com/tsneaux/status/1052560904049623040   Permalink 7:30 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Upregulation, overcompensation. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/aopsnews/status/1052310223082393601   Permalink 3:01 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb CASCADES Saudi Barbaria will give us an illustration of a standard cascade: Barbaria can retaliate against a single company or a country (as they tried w/Canada); but cannot do so against the rest of the world. Cascades are the standard readjustment for complex systems. Permalink 2:16 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb I will give lecktchur by video sometimes during the program. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1050019558067716098   Permalink 1:46 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@AmLyceum Penn Station, a tragedy in four parts: pic.twitter.com/EXySqHCvd0 Permalink 10:13 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb King Kong on Broadway? I have to improvise! pic.twitter.com/TxWDcDZWuC Permalink 9:46 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Philosophy of Probability: How we can link the speed of convergence of the law of large numbers to the problem of induction. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   cc: @HarryDCrane @paulboghossian ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VxNhOqY7eA”>  pic.twitter.com/VxNhOqY7eA Permalink 4:54 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, please call the king of Saudi Barbaria again for his second version of the story. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1051814214212485120?s=21   Permalink 6:20 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@alwyn_lau Re-reading @nntaleb’s “Anti-Fragile”. Now I know why I have an innate suspicion towards: a) fit-bits/activity trackers b) after-school tuition which fill up a child’s week c) packaged vacations d) KPIs’ e) systematic theology pic.twitter.com/IJ1PHqQdbo Permalink 6:10 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words (Fat Tony’s), don’t cross a river that’s on average 4 feet deep. https://twitter.com/necsi/status/1051883954603782145   Permalink 3:29 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words (Fat Tony’s), don’t cross a river that’s on average 4 feet deep. https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/1051883954603782145   Permalink 3:29 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Well, @Paul_Salem: A shameless shill for the UAE (hence Saudi Barbaria). Foreign affairs people start with an idealistic views of the world; they try to become scholars. Then life happens and they realize they are unskilled labor; so they get corrupted to the bone. https://twitter.com/MiddleEastInst/status/1051933221288595463   Permalink 2:46 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words, Saudi Barbaria is saying: “We didn’t mean to kill him; we just tortured him to death” Permalink 1:58 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@James_McGinniss Love @nntaleb on CC (1:22:00): “there’s a high probability the [IPCC models] are full of crap and there’s also a probability their opponents are… but the more uncertainty there is in a system the less you want to pollute, bc you don’t know what’s going on”. Limit our downside https://twitter.com/naval/status/1051578799098195969   Permalink 1:55 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb To say it in the language of the Saudi Barbaria: عذر اقبح من ذنب (An excuse that is more hideous than the crime) https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1051928133249712128   Permalink 1:52 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@NECSI The more nonlinearity in the response, the less informational the average. Within the day, you do not need to consume the same amount water every minute, but at the scale of the day, you want maximal evenness. @nntaleb @NECSI #Complexity Permalink 10:14 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@__anoop @nntaleb says ‘anyone who is capable of writing a business plan, you dont want to invest with them’ – and this is the reason why I like Taleb. He’s an honorable man. Why? He said it to a VC (@naval) on stage at a blockchain conf. That takes guts and more than that conviction Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Unless they are fables or fable-like (Borges, Calvino), short stories are hard to remember. Permalink 6:40 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@adolfont “Anything that smacks of competition destroys knowledge.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://bit.ly/2pV8b46   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZUipjh3KPf”>  pic.twitter.com/ZUipjh3KPf Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Make sure the Secretary of State has a well-functioning Apple Watch. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1051814214212485120   Permalink 5:42 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Short stories are mostly read by people who want to write short stories. Permalink 4:10 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 3- Now if the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria makes a deal w/Iran to retaliate against the West, guess what would happen: Iranians will just take their oil, via a Shiite insurrection. Reason: oil reserves are in the Shiite section & indigenous are treated like sub-dhimmis. Permalink 5:54 PM – 14 Oct 2018

@schmittpaula “The most consequential and destructive 9/11 truther conspiracy was that Saddam was behind 9/11”. https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/1051508445701173249   Permalink 9:38 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Rischiare Grosso (Introduction to Skin in the Game in Italian) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOcQojM9VPM&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 9:17 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The Palestinian “leadership” has never missed an opportunity to harm their own. Practically never. https://twitter.com/KhaledAbuToameh/status/1051455437319606275   Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb …and said journalist is a Muslim Brotherhood activist, in favor of the ethnic cleansing of Syria, the Yemen war, & other Jihadisms. His falling out w/the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria (a.k.a MBS) is infighting similar to the Castellammarese War betw. mafia families. Gabish? Permalink 7:12 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A Yuuuge agency problem in journalism: they care abt journalists far more than other pple. + Saudi Barbaria does Sept 11, blows up & ethnically cleanses Syria, Salafizes countries, wrecks Yemen. Nobody cares. + Saudi Barbaria suspected of killing one journalist, total deluge. Permalink 5:50 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Genetically and culturally fake category. Chromoidentities. pic.twitter.com/SoLmuCxRwo Permalink 5:17 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@Sugarsteroni What We Learned from Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Naval Ravikant https://buff.ly/2pSWc7a   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BBd6uqIX5B”>  pic.twitter.com/BBd6uqIX5B Permalink 5:15 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@jnaanarthi @naval Here’s audio extract with noise removed https://soundcloud.com/user-515868246/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-naval-ravikant-chat   Permalink 2:01 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@notiveri Da Gesù a Donald Trump, perché non si può vivere senza rischiare: Nei momenti storici di crisi emerge na necessità di rischiare. Per andare oltre le regole consolidate, che del resto non valgono più nulla. L’elogio del rischio di Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2018/10/14/da-gesu-a-donald-trump-perche-non-si-puo-vivere-senza-rischiare/39737/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nepyQ0VLcY”>  pic.twitter.com/nepyQ0VLcY Permalink 9:04 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@Sri_Rad15 Was there. Those Golden words “F-bayes” https://twitter.com/Sri_Rad15/status/1033410957861683201   Permalink 5:49 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Most plausible explanation is that they wanted to take him to Saudi Barbaria. Permalink 4:35 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: 1- My comment in new book: You can ONLY use Bayesian updating under reliable priors and reliably CONVERGING probabilities. 2- Efron’s outstanding summary. pic.twitter.com/KK8UQ74hKM Permalink 3:02 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The approach to the murder of the journo by Saudi Barbaria (if details are true) illustrates the conflation the sophisticated w/what looks sophisticated. The most sophisticated approach wd have been to use a cheap hitman on a motorcycle. Saudis acted like academic economists. Permalink 12:13 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Recall my Twitter fight with Rothkopf. Thank you Twitter; we can now expose frauds very early. https://twitter.com/aaschapiro/status/1050599529563615232   Permalink 11:10 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Probability… not Pinker’s thing. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1047946091637948417   Permalink 10:15 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbarian shills. One thing is certain: they’re not good at it. https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/1026416994827075585   Permalink 9:53 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There is a yuuuugely sublte point about the minority rule that @Naval got: If it’s stable, it comes from the minority rule. Why? Simply majority rules produce fluctuations with slight variations of majority. https://twitter.com/dawnmnewton/status/1050448770666717184   Permalink 9:21 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@CasciottaGian Caro @nntaleb Come vedi l’impegno nella lettura ce lo metto . Grazie a @ilSaggiatoreEd @lucaformenton Ottimo Cupellaro sin dalle prime pagine. Non era facile. #skininthegame #rischiaregrosso pic.twitter.com/XplbiA48kD Permalink 9:16 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@JeanMessiha La haine de soi du gauchiste obéit a une règle immuable: plus la cause lui est étrangère plus il se mobilisera et vice-versa. Il soutiendra donc Rohingyas, Ouïgours, Yazidis…mais JAMAIS de Chrétiens, ni d’Orient ni d’ailleurs. Horreur, ils font trop penser aux Cathos français ! Permalink 8:14 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb (Blocking works well: I used to get 15-20 “cute” remarks for the Math quizzes, now I just get 2 or 3). You reduce 95% of the noise just by blocking .1% of the followers. Permalink 6:57 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The long route, unlike @laptopman4 pic.twitter.com/Qhi7jlI47l Permalink 6:44 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Hint pic.twitter.com/S15lBVNjL2 Permalink 6:37 PM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2 out of 3 so far seem very close. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/934225604228116480   Permalink 10:11 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Meetings are metastatic. Permalink 9:19 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@NonMeek @nntaleb Here’s a handy comic strip for your next encounter with prominent mathematical finance professors. [ https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_  ] ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zCNrhGFpcU”>  pic.twitter.com/zCNrhGFpcU Permalink 9:15 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A simple riddle, courtesy the Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/Ba47RfEUE2 Permalink 8:18 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/15/business/dealbook/stock-surge-presents-risks-for-the-trump-administration.html   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8w3ZhyxkXB”>  pic.twitter.com/8w3ZhyxkXB Permalink 8:14 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A reliable predictor of future insuccess: if someone writes long (and frequent) emails. Permalink 6:30 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Honorable people punish. https://twitter.com/getfactual/status/873205174696890369   Permalink 4:36 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There was no fire during the firechat. https://twitter.com/AdamPWeiss/status/1050452941474131969   Permalink 4:30 PM – 11 Oct 2018

@drjasonfung 3 cases of type 2 diabetes reversal with fasting – http://casereports.bmj.com/content/2018/bcr-2017-221854.full   @nntaleb would appreciate how this fits with Via Negativa, and also why these paradigm shifts don’t come out of academia Permalink 12:47 PM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Annahar an Arabist and Arabophiliastic paper published a blank issue today. I don’t know if it was intentional, but there was suddenly more substance in it than usual. https://twitter.com/decafquest/status/1050415681446010880   Permalink 9:03 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@ShipSystem Most who never lived in Belgium misses to understand the Belgian mentality that they are hyper localists. Even the Flemish dont want to be part of the NL and Walloon dont want to be French & they all dont care for central gov/nation. They are localists. ping @nntaleb @ektrit Permalink 6:36 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@EamonnK Went to the dentist yesterday. Had to get X-Rays taken. First time (after reading ‘Antifragile’) I ever thought wow! These x rays are good for me!! #Antifragile #Antifragility @nntaleb @Antifragilista7 pic.twitter.com/qqyrgrqym9 Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Chi non risica non rosica. Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Se il titolo sembra diverso da quello degli Stati Uniti, è perché lo volevo. “Rischiare grosso” è meglio in italiano in quanto insiste sul rischio. @ilSaggiatoreEd Post scriptum : Vuoi che faccia un breve Youtube in italiano? https://twitter.com/hugowiz/status/1050350614612455424   Permalink 6:25 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@WeAreLebanon Foggy sky over #DhourChoueir By @amal_h86 #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/p5Fk5loZGC Permalink 4:20 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@ilSaggiatoreEd «A una minoranza intransigente (di un certo tipo) che si metta in gioco […] basterà raggiungere diciamo il tre o quattro per cento della popolazione totale per costringere quest’ultima a adeguarsi alle sue preferenze.» #RischiareGrosso Da oggi http://ow.ly/vrly30m2NBQ   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lETXsxaLon”>  pic.twitter.com/lETXsxaLon Permalink 3:00 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Plane ride to LA. Took the engineering route, not the mathematician’s. pic.twitter.com/1HwyUutwcA Permalink 12:48 PM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb TEchnical Black Swan Problem pic.twitter.com/GmcEV30DFn Permalink 12:23 PM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There’s a *statistical* near-certainty that Nate Silver doesn’t understand probability. Actually, there is a certainty. cc:@EllieAsksWhy https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1047882643528974336   Permalink 9:07 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@ericozkan1 Color? And how about the gilded frame? Sam (Harris) does not get the gilded frame…I’ve only used that for Newton. pic.twitter.com/mk6hDKVzfi Permalink 7:02 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #popper #theblackswan #falsification #problemofinduction pic.twitter.com/k88DHkdkFH Permalink 6:46 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Some have severe problems of reading comprehension (witness logically-challenged journo @TheStalwart). Labeling people is not “thinking” in labels: thinking is a thought process, labeling is the shortcut result of a thought process. Think. Gabish? https://twitter.com/MalthusJohn/status/1049995096807145472   Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb MATH PROBLEM DU JOUR (EASY): pic.twitter.com/GVz3araMFc Permalink 2:27 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik You may remember this brave guy from a few months ago After reading @nntaleb, he used deadlifts to recover from lung surgery despite scary warnings to the contrary from his doctors If he can do it, so can you Now get out there and start lifting https://twitter.com/maalaukong/status/1049897517515718656   Permalink 11:06 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@stan_yurin This clueless text generator have won the econ nobel, enough said. https://twitter.com/stan_yurin/status/986610320457256960   Permalink 8:16 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@producerdrummer “Friends, remember that: Unless you build a habit of making money on your own, standalone, you will find yourself, at some point, depending on the whims of someone else who will run your life. When it’s too late.” @nntaleb Permalink 5:47 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink And tripes pic.twitter.com/j8kDBoVXpb Permalink 5:01 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Here is the “chaos” predicted by this young “genius” if Assad re-takes Syria from jihadists: Christians celebrating the Feast of the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary last month for the first time in the restored cathedral – blown up by this think-tanker’s “freedom fighters”! pic.twitter.com/LqjG6bP9Ew Permalink 4:22 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For those confused, this is what pedophrasty means. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@BrianTHeligman 13. Special thanks to @normonics and @nntaleb for their excellent climate letter that really helped to clarify my framing of all this. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf   Permalink 9:13 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The idiotic @thestalwart: 1) Does not distinguish between THINKING IN labels and EXPRESSING IN labels (say in condensing a tweet). 2) Retweets “behind your back” with pic not so I don’t see it. Learn defects from journos. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1049681886761639936   Permalink 8:46 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The replacement of psychopathic pedophrastic low-IQ maximally neocon ambassador by someone who can potentially be a neocon is excellent news. https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/1049678995476877312   Permalink 8:22 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You are also told the same in post-revolutionary America. Just avoid MSM. https://twitter.com/Mehdi_IR_DC/status/1049679843900710912   Permalink 8:17 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Christmas came early. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1049671372962783234   Permalink 7:55 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, but I block idiots. There is something about extreme stupidity that makes it unethical in its harm the public. Please do not take it personally. Nothing personal, but I just block idiots. Permalink 5:09 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2) Why are journos such as @davidfrum sooooooooooooo clueless about rent seeking? pic.twitter.com/bxhWV0ptcz Permalink 4:56 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 1) It is a shame that journos don’t get that money made thanks to office is defrauding the taxpayer. https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1049627625046626304   Permalink 4:55 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@GMOFreeUSA Gerber has begun to make non-GMO claims on some of their products, without independent verification. That’s not good enough. BOYCOTT GERBER until they remove GMOs and get Non-GMO Project Verified. SIGN THE PETITION: http://tinyurl.com/jd997ka   READ: http://www.gmwatch.org/news/latest-news/16297-do-gm-soybean-plants-accumulate-formaldehyde   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/o1QMTs4kb1″>  pic.twitter.com/o1QMTs4kb1 Permalink 6:07 PM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Do I strike you as someone who would set foot in Harvard Square? Permalink 4:48 PM – 8 Oct 2018