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Danish Mask Study, Thanksgiving, Cut The Knot

Difference between two binomial random variables (the Danish Mask Study)

Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of False Positives: the Flaws in the Danish Mask Study

Maestro Bogomolny
Foreword for Cut the Knot: Probability Riddles by Alexander B.


Nassim Taleb Interview with Massimo Sideri (2020)
•Nov 15, 2020


Discussion with Yaneer Bar-Yam on the Danish Study on Face Masks
•Premiered Nov 24, 2020

Onassis, Localism, Testing, R0, Ioannidis, Walking, Dawkins, HERESIES, Borat = racist, Masks

Well, Twitter changed their code again and broke my scraper and it’s taking me a long time to find an alternative. Thing is, the reason I started collecting NNT’s tweets was because he initially was in the habit of deleting them every few months, which he has apparently stopped doing. Anyway, let’s have a look at what NNT’s been up to since mid September… Let me guess… math, and squid ink.

Expected Shortfall Estimation for Apparently Infinite-Mean Models of Operational Risk

. 2020 Oct 20
doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008 [Epub ahead of print]


Religion, Violence, Tolerance & Progress: Nothing to do with Theology

Corporations: the world of work in the new normal (20 OCT) V.O. | #enlightED Streamed live on Oct 20, 2020


How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach- Discussion with Dhruv Madeka Oct 9, 2020

Fake Regression by psychologists Premiered Oct 2, 2020

‘Black Swan’ Investor Nassim Taleb on Covid Misconceptions, Fed Policy, Inflation Sep 22, 2020

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ou la vertu de l’incertitude


Saudi Arabia, IQ, U.S. Academia, David Graeber, TRUE WEALTH, Harari, Nate Silver,@BallouxFrancois, #RWRI 14 | Twitter

Taleb, le penseur qui va changer votre vie (pdf)

We discuss 1) the errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics, why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks, 2) how evidence based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks, 3) the risks of morbidity must be accounted for 4) how the dangers of vaccines do not scale.

@nntaleb What’s the betting market for Saudi Arabia before Nov 1? Permalink 2020-09-11 21:58:13

@nntaleb Beirut Airport. 100% go through PCR testing before entering, on top of the need to produce a 72h test. I believe that overactive testing (even if high error rate) + masks + constraining superspreaders effectively allow you to keep functioning. Cheaper than lockdowns. Permalink 2020-09-11 19:50:11

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew then). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:44:41

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew than). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:41:40

@nntaleb Fuck, no. This is fake credentials to het benefits. Permalink 2020-09-11 17:40:19

@nntaleb En route to the Phoenician coast. I am told that this may prevent jet lag. Permalink 2020-09-11 14:54:44

@nntaleb 2/ Yes, nitpickers & other idiots, such a filter will fail to select people who got recently infected. But the point is not abt individuals, but the system. All you need is the growth rate to collapse. Fewer pple infected ➜ fewer pple infected ➜ Fewer Permalink 2020-09-11 09:53:28

@nntaleb CHROMOCLASSIFICATION is absurd, infused with political motivations & exploited by groups leeching on the historical suffering of a certain group. Instead use “historically disfavored groups”. Americans from Indian origin have the highest income, shd be excluded. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:44:56

@nntaleb On a transatlantic flight: every passenger & crew member must be COVID negative (w/72h test validity). Overactive testing is the solution. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:38:21

@nntaleb Ahla!!!! Permalink 2020-09-11 00:49:48

@nntaleb Ahla! Min wén hiyyé? Permalink 2020-09-10 21:15:48

@nntaleb This also confirms. But I initially got 1/48 analytically Permalink 2020-09-10 14:17:50

@nntaleb 1/42 Permalink 2020-09-09 20:17:26

@nntaleb Excellent! Permalink 2020-09-09 17:33:27

@nntaleb Something like an amuse-gueule Permalink 2020-09-09 15:34:59

@nntaleb The first Livias were Swedish and/or Swiss Permalink 2020-09-09 12:43:49

@nntaleb Qual è il tuo personaggio preferito in “Commissario Montalbano”? Permalink 2020-09-08 19:55:22

@nntaleb I like it that John Clesse likes my books. But I like it much much better that he both likes my books and hates Pinker’s. Permalink 2020-09-08 18:56:14

@nntaleb Doesn’t mean infinite mean deviation. Only that the 2nd moment is undefined. Can explain next #RWRI Permalink 2020-09-08 18:53:38

@nntaleb How many people on the *true* left disagree with this? Permalink 2020-09-08 12:24:50

@nntaleb All #Ponzi schemers enter a phase of denial. #RiadPonzi Permalink 2020-09-08 12:23:19

@nntaleb Too much diversity among doctors. Permalink 2020-09-08 12:07:53

@nntaleb Another interesting thing: Tower of Babel is migdal Babel in Heb. Same as “Majdl l 3a2oura” or مجدل عنجر @Marcellenassif @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-08 11:59:01

@nntaleb 13 ½ years after The Black Swan someone formally investigated my statement about the tail difference between SCALABLE (authors) and NONSCALABLE (dentist, prostitute) occupations. Permalink 2020-09-08 11:36:36

@nntaleb Swimming distance. Me too. Permalink 2020-09-07 18:45:33

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL CONFUSION DU JOUR: TOWER (πύργος) A Is the Homeric Greek πύργος origin for برج burj, (itself perhaps from Urartian) via Syriac ܦܘܪܓܳܘܣ or ܒܘܪܓܐ or is there a common root? [BrgiBorges, Borgia] B What is the connection to a) appearance b) divination [See below] Permalink 2020-09-07 18:40:21

@nntaleb Are you in Cyprus now? Permalink 2020-09-07 18:04:34

@nntaleb Block trolls. Permalink 2020-09-07 16:39:18

@nntaleb CLueless Permalink 2020-09-07 16:24:48

@nntaleb Summary thread. A forecast MUST account for its own error. Since small probabilities are convex, uncertainty raises them. Nate Silver & Phil the Rat🐁 @PTetlock didn’t get that ALL methods end up converging to the same price (Tetlock🐁 never understood the Brier Score). Permalink 2020-09-07 15:27:20

@nntaleb L tarjamé taba3 Google Permalink 2020-09-07 15:16:58

@nntaleb Friends, do we have data on COVID infection rates for flight attendants & others from exposures in airplanes? Thanks. Permalink 2020-09-07 11:15:53

@nntaleb We have plenty, in Greek and Latin. Permalink 2020-09-06 20:09:45

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, populations are not defined by nations. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-09-06 19:50:23

@nntaleb Jaydeh hiyyé modernista te3rib! Mni7a bleghghetna! Permalink 2020-09-06 19:23:51

@nntaleb Lebnen: Men l Ponzi lal Te3dir (Antifragility) by @BLebnene Permalink 2020-09-06 19:21:42

@nntaleb Much of the problems of modernity is taking religion literally and science metaphorically, rather than the reverse. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:47:21

@nntaleb “We” changes over time intergenerationally. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:43:39

@nntaleb 2) thread Permalink 2020-09-06 16:31:06

@nntaleb A Phoenician revival in Sicily when AUB trained-inspired Orientalistidiots-Arabista-mononculturistic fascists & halfrained thinktank losers are trying to repress it in #Lebanon as a “sectarian” thing. Permalink 2020-09-06 16:30:26

@nntaleb RWRI slides Permalink 2020-09-06 13:58:42

@nntaleb If you are going for squid ink, Beirut is better. If you are going for Data Science, another story. Permalink 2020-09-06 13:35:36

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink 2020-09-06 13:34:50

@nntaleb Try the $49.95 worldwide guaranteed price at the Scribe store @zachobront Permalink 2020-09-06 12:37:19

@nntaleb Squid ink in Cyprus is indeed one of the best. But Beirut’s squid ink is better. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:34:10

@nntaleb Bent’s reply. Never engage in a large scale project without looking at his work on overruns. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:28:58

@nntaleb Today’s tools used by IQ mongers such as the mountebank @charlesmurray (of the bell curve) have the same statistical validity as Le Bon’s cranium theories. And academics swallowed it. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:27:30

@nntaleb In a lectshur presenting AF Permalink 2020-09-06 12:22:42

@nntaleb God created IQ psychologists and economists such as @GarettJones so we can teach classes on their mistakes & teach how to not be fooled by data. #RWRI PS- National IQ is a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:59:16

@nntaleb You must make lemonade out of every lemon. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:44:43

@nntaleb 2ri 3an Wittgenstein’s Private Language Argument katabo Saul Kripke. Permalink 2020-09-05 22:25:29

@nntaleb I want to help! Permalink 2020-09-05 21:57:42

@nntaleb Not with a good risk management system Permalink 2020-09-05 20:32:42

@nntaleb No, the first is the right one. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:29:46

@nntaleb Not quite true: It had to be a synonym in Classical Arabic at the time of Mutanabbi, as shown in his famous poem against the then ruler of Egypt. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:27:48

@nntaleb Farayya. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:23:28

@nntaleb Friends, does Jan 11-22 work for #RWRI 15? Permalink 2020-09-05 19:05:40

@nntaleb Harry has an exemption. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:57:11

@nntaleb Also it was in jest. Paganism does not have a definition. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:43:33

@nntaleb Thanks Bent!!! Permalink 2020-09-05 17:15:34

@nntaleb Not yet Permalink 2020-09-05 16:32:04

@nntaleb South Italy is East Med: same culture same people Permalink 2020-09-05 16:29:34

@nntaleb If you don’t like truth, fuck off. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:20:51

@nntaleb Do you realize that Spanish will soon be banned? Permalink 2020-09-05 16:16:35

@nntaleb I admire his Gadness but he lives in the wrong place. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:15:18

@nntaleb Why I bailed out of U.S. academia. Anyone who is still in it by choice is a moron & those trapped there for lack of other options are total losers. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:14:34

@nntaleb New York bagels are better. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:06:43

@nntaleb Went fast (unless there is a typo) Permalink 2020-09-05 14:53:27

@nntaleb Saturday morning relaxation in memory of @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2020-09-05 14:41:43

@nntaleb 3)#Lebanon #LebanonProtests #Bisridam Permalink 2020-09-05 13:52:30

@nntaleb Bent @BentFlyvbjerg, can you show us a simple graph of cost overruns for dam projects? You will be helping debunk the @Gebran_Bassil “helping the poor” narrative. Ignoring other tail risks… (Bent is THE world’s foremost specialist on megaprojects cost) Permalink 2020-09-05 13:42:21

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-09-05 13:21:45

@nntaleb The World Bank fragilista IYIs do not have a good track record in understanding the cost-benefit tradeoffs of such projects. The Besri Dam represents a yuuuuge irreversible environmental blight w/no tangible benefit, mis-marketed & misrepresented as “helping the poor”. Permalink 2020-09-05 12:23:58

@nntaleb You bet Permalink 2020-09-04 22:37:24

@nntaleb High variance != fat tails. Tails risks are no different from what they were before. Perception is a bit higher . Permalink 2020-09-04 20:40:08

@nntaleb You are a vile, despicable person, @Frances_Coppola. David Graeber’s body is still warm & he is defenseless. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-04 18:38:48

@nntaleb Blocked the idiot. Permalink 2020-09-04 15:18:28

@nntaleb COVID Risk Conversation with @yaneerbaryam. At the end I explain to Yaneer that my background is much nicer; he should add books or, better, hang cooking instruments behind him to make it more jovial. Permalink 2020-09-04 14:35:47

@nntaleb Alternative, if the typo is 1 Permalink 2020-09-04 14:08:10

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-04 13:22:54

@nntaleb The entire point of Antifragile is that we do not make decisions based on probability but a combination that ALWAYS includes payoffs. In that sense proba <<< time expectation [ergodic] So tried to Lindify by reversing the damage done by frauds, usually psychologists (Tetlocks). Permalink 2020-09-04 12:05:18

@nntaleb Morning workout. Please avoid special functions. Permalink 2020-09-04 11:03:37

@nntaleb Not necessary, implied for I not for II Permalink 2020-09-04 10:12:45

@nntaleb Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb via @YouTube Permalink 2020-09-04 01:28:09

@nntaleb 8 ½ years after #Antifragile. Not bad. Permalink 2020-09-04 00:12:30

@nntaleb La methode Salafi a cause des deites semites! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:28:51

@nntaleb Tshrin msh October! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:26:18

@nntaleb Fété7? Wéyn? Permalink 2020-09-03 19:57:35

@nntaleb Sleep well! I manage now between 7 ½ and 9 ½ Permalink 2020-09-03 17:57:26

@nntaleb Bataille Royale bil jazal. بس شوي هدّوا يا شباب في بروتوكول ! Permalink 2020-09-03 17:44:07

@nntaleb انا كمان ما بمبسط بهيدا الحرف Permalink 2020-09-03 17:42:15

@nntaleb David Graeber He was a real intellectual; very real: not one fake cell in his brain, not one fake bone in his body. He thought independently. He was monstrouly original. He had intellectual courage. The world seems much much smaller today than before Sep 2. David, RIP Permalink 2020-09-03 17:20:12

@nntaleb 3esh miyyé w sntein! Permalink 2020-09-03 15:45:23

@nntaleb Wrong also about many other things… Permalink 2020-09-03 14:59:16

@nntaleb How much does it sell for? Permalink 2020-09-03 14:58:43

@nntaleb Maybe “promoted” would fix? Permalink 2020-09-03 11:30:04

@nntaleb Hi, maybe some day but too hard to put together. Permalink 2020-09-03 11:23:00

@nntaleb Bear @Prof_BearB is a diplomatic & polite fellow saying what I have been saying in my own way (that is, less politely): that @sapinker is, scientifically speaking, a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-03 10:33:28

@nntaleb The red is… bottarga? Permalink 2020-09-02 21:31:08

@nntaleb Did you @STEPHENPUNWASI intentionally reverse the meaning of the tweets by @ndehouche ? Permalink 2020-09-02 20:43:55

@nntaleb Minute 9 he explains how it was modeled after Law School of Beirut @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-02 19:56:04

@nntaleb The part Jewish… it was not too differentiated at the time. Anyway I read somewhere that the Talmud was an imitation of the Beirut disputatio method (given that the Jews wanted no Roman law, yet wanted to emulate). Will find source & revert. Permalink 2020-09-02 19:49:00

@nntaleb Harari was created so that psycholophasters like @sapinker seem intelligent. Permalink 2020-09-02 17:13:52

@nntaleb Why Severus Alexander? Permalink 2020-09-02 17:06:06

@nntaleb Actually this picture in Lebanon is close (a winery in the Batroun district). Permalink 2020-09-02 16:47:31

@nntaleb Yes, the preparation requires it! Permalink 2020-09-02 16:38:00

@nntaleb They would use a technology, medical treatment, squid ink recipe, or scientific result conceived by someone considered morally repugnant. But they will “cancel” an actor/politician/mediaperson/ standard academic. Let it sink in that some pple are both superfluous & v. dependent Permalink 2020-09-02 16:00:00

@nntaleb هيدا محتال فنّاص كمّل عليه Permalink 2020-09-02 13:23:47

@nntaleb Squares. Don’t work with infinite kurtosis. Permalink 2020-09-02 12:50:46

@nntaleb Preparation for my trip next week, my own “return to the Med”. Permalink 2020-09-02 12:36:06

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-09-01 21:29:54

@nntaleb Isaac Levy, RIP Permalink 2020-09-01 21:02:45

@nntaleb Clearly, @dvoshart is a fraud, beyond his lack of scholarship & technical knowledge. I leave it to Maghrebi people to debunk his representation of their heritage & his exploitation of African people to make a political point. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:15:39

@nntaleb Somewhat messy; may have a mistake. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:10:55

@nntaleb A bit messy but here Permalink 2020-09-01 19:09:41

@nntaleb C’est pas le sujet du livre. Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:50

@nntaleb Where was that? Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:17

@nntaleb Ils ont massacré le titre Permalink 2020-09-01 16:49:03

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-01 14:53:44

@nntaleb Imbecile, it means it is vulnerable to the smallest disruption. Permalink 2020-09-01 14:41:55

@nntaleb The pandemic is not “unprecedented”. What is unprecedented is: FRAGILITY + PANDEMIC Our economic system has never been more fragile, more stretched, more vulnerable to small disruptions. @octonion Permalink 2020-09-01 14:37:44

@nntaleb Staged or real? Permalink 2020-09-01 13:50:25

@nntaleb For those of us locked-in because of the rain. Permalink 2020-09-01 13:27:24

@nntaleb Mine were GrecoPhoenicians Permalink 2020-08-31 20:49:21

@nntaleb Some job openings. A Greek-Orthodox Lebanese can’t be 1) president, 2) prime minister, 3) speaker of parliament, 4) governor of the central bank, 5) head of the military. Permalink 2020-08-31 20:00:37

@nntaleb Fat Tony: “Hating Trump and voting for Biden aren’t the same ting” * * Ting means “thing” in dialectal Fat Tonyism. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:52:20

@nntaleb Distinction without a difference. BS. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:45:41

@nntaleb BTW for people listening to this ignorant photoshoot Voshart, this is a period representation. Here my pics from the original at the Met. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:43:16

@nntaleb Voshart, nobody cares about your opinion on matters of scholarship. Maybe about food, photos, etc. But not anything related to scholarships/AI/statistical inference/rigor. I do not care to win an argument against you. Just letting pple know you are a fraud. Enjoy taking photos. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:22:35

@nntaleb Time to revisit (for entertainment) the Nate Silver Ignorance of Probability given that “Kolanovic Says Trump Re-Election Odds Soaring, Prompting Nate Silver To Melt Down On Twitter | Zero Hedge” More papers on how to predict elections under uncertainty Permalink 2020-08-31 19:14:59

@nntaleb Often make mistakes in that direction. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:07:55

@nntaleb TRADERS LORE: life is about the increment. When one takes a hit, suffers a personal/collective setback, must not look back. Losers look back. Look ONLY ahead &, when back in the saddle, you’ll get encouraged, even thrilled by the slope/improvement (1st derivative). Stock vs Flow. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:43:56

@nntaleb Warning abt the Roman Emperor pictures. @dvoshart is a photographer; clueless about AI, conditional updating, genetics, etc. In other words, pretty much a fraud. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:30:30

@nntaleb @dvoshart is a fraud. KNows nothing about AI or conditional updating. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:29:07

@nntaleb Yes, but for other reasons than “rights”. Because there are more effective alternatives. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:59:54

@nntaleb (Pseudo)libertarian minds have the intellectual nuances & logical refinement of somewhere betw. the unicellular amoeba & invertebrate sea slugs. And of course no notion of scaling of collective risks/dynamics & iatrogenics. In short: what I usually refer to as “idiots”. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:58:20

@nntaleb Oui mais c’est la réaction après! Permalink 2020-08-31 16:44:45

@nntaleb Any idea how many centimeters? Permalink 2020-08-31 15:04:56

@nntaleb 🙏 for your safety. Permalink 2020-08-31 15:02:29

@nntaleb Il m’a répondu qu’il n’y avait pas de RV. Alors qu’il m’avait envoyé l’adresse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:59:59

@nntaleb Il n’a meme pas annulé. Je me pointe chez lui, on me repond qu’il est au Maroc. Meme pas d’excuse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:40:01

@nntaleb 8 pages au total. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:39:23

@nntaleb L’article intégral (mais il ne faut pas dire au Point que je partage…) Permalink 2020-08-31 13:37:32

@nntaleb Elle etait presente. Il m’a posé un lapin une fois a Paris. L’année suivante je le vois a Saint Paul de Vence avec Arielle. Il essaye de me parler, je lui demande de ne pas me deranger. Une année apres les employés de l’hotel en parlent encore. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:01:26

@nntaleb Or the “g” where they talk about “manifold” Permalink 2020-08-31 12:03:14

@nntaleb J’ai eu une histoire avec BHL. Tres amusante. Apres mon café. Permalink 2020-08-31 11:47:44

@nntaleb Great Solution! Permalink 2020-08-30 15:21:20

@nntaleb La photo n’est pas très … Permalink 2020-08-30 10:54:21

@nntaleb The main problem with statistics is statisticians. Permalink 2020-08-29 16:48:51

@nntaleb The ArcSin law (Feller) Permalink 2020-08-29 16:23:44

@nntaleb Morning therapy [ROMANIAN MATHEMATICAL MAGAZINE] Permalink 2020-08-29 11:43:03

@nntaleb BS. Less than 3% but the reverse is true: Arabians with a Levantine origin. Permalink 2020-08-29 11:16:57

@nntaleb American Universities are going to be totally controlled by Robestpierristas (by the minority rule). I mean, totally, as there is no visible countermechanism. Sorry for the innocent funders of their endowments. Permalink 2020-08-29 00:07:43

@nntaleb Wait a week or so. Permalink 2020-08-28 23:55:40

@nntaleb 2) Kamal Salibi was literally a fiction writer (as patently shown in his theory of the origin of Moses). THe Marib dam population is another fiction. Any scholar citing him for anything historical is effectively a fraud. cc:@PZalloua We are debunking that crap with min effort Permalink 2020-08-28 23:54:50

@nntaleb This is TOTAL BS 95% population is local. The Maronites RELIGION came from near Apamea, the POPULATION is local. Sunnis is Lebanon have ~NO Peninsular origin. And the Druze are loca, and, if anything Anatolians. If there is a “foreign origin”, it is Anatolian for ALL >3000 y ago. Permalink 2020-08-28 22:08:12

@nntaleb Are you Erythrean? Permalink 2020-08-28 21:44:29

@nntaleb Twitter conversations can help develop an idea. Permalink 2020-08-28 21:39:28

@nntaleb You forget @normonics and an unnamed person (as yet) in government. Permalink 2020-08-28 14:48:34

@nntaleb Je vais m’y mettre alors. Permalink 2020-08-28 11:08:12

@nntaleb I know Hebrew Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:40

@nntaleb Please explain. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:19

@nntaleb The Gulf despises “Shamis” (Levantines) and they consider us pretenders & a highly impure race, so their form of antisemitism is directed towards Levantines. Jews don’t bother them as much. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:14:39

@nntaleb Yes the thing is about lithurgy, not culture. Ezra told me how he wrote in Judeo-Arabic, his father’s script. I could speak to him for 24 hours without noticing. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:10:57

@nntaleb Zilkha. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:05:18

@nntaleb Sephardic is not Mizrahi, as you well know! I remember Ezra Zilha insisting obsessively that he was not Separdic. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:03:54

@nntaleb Yes here it is. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:02:06

@nntaleb That’s not at all what he is saying. To the contrary. Permalink 2020-08-27 22:51:39

@nntaleb Meds not just Mizrahis. Also Alexandrians. They had duty free shops in NY and Paris, no? Permalink 2020-08-27 22:28:52

@nntaleb Almost right. The Farhis were political advisors… Permalink 2020-08-27 21:55:03

@nntaleb Not reliable in a train station with transit Permalink 2020-08-27 21:52:17

@nntaleb 3) The idea of the Brier Score is that you need to be *precise* hence minimize the error rate. Under maximal uncertaity it becomes betting at ½. Same with entropy. This is our response to Silver’s agent: Permalink 2020-08-27 20:07:43

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-27 19:54:10

@nntaleb In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:41:49

@nntaleb 4th paper abt my problem w/Nate Silver & that idiot @PTetlock over election forecasting. It’s (perhaps) refining my methodology & that of @DhruvMadeka Basically: Predictions must have #skininthegame hence MUST be subjected to arbitrage boundaries. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:39:41

@nntaleb 2/ Google Translate iza bit na22é shubit2ul ma fi ytrjem w l 3alam hon bidi3o shwayy. Baddak tékhedon w tjibon shwayy. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:28:21

@nntaleb Tweet deleted! Permalink 2020-08-27 19:24:50

@nntaleb This is an excellent intuition. Permalink 2020-08-27 18:09:53

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:48:32

@nntaleb You can condition mobility on that. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:32:28

@nntaleb Looks like the END. (If true, & you do not need that good a rate of false negative). Our circle saw the Covid problem when all these “expert” idiots where blind, failed to see the dynamics. Now we see the resolution when they are stuck in the past. Testing was the solution. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:30:33

@nntaleb Nothing racist. Damascus Jews are a distinct cutural group with merchant habits because they were traditionally excluded from the military. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:22:27

@nntaleb The end of the tunnel. So life can resume. (If this is true). And, I am certain, more such tests are on the way. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:05:21

@nntaleb Only 20-30 million people speak Koranic Arabic and none as a native language. Out of 1.5 bil. Permalink 2020-08-27 16:54:38

@nntaleb Look: Islam & Judaism kept the original language. Christianity did until Vatican 2 (or 1). Permalink 2020-08-27 16:37:45

@nntaleb Could be someone from Tyre as an author. They wrote in Greek. Permalink 2020-08-27 15:36:01

@nntaleb شي حمصي عم بردلون ياها Permalink 2020-08-27 15:21:18

@nntaleb Huwwé 7msé Permalink 2020-08-27 15:19:02

@nntaleb @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-08-27 11:29:47

@nntaleb ANCIENT PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: SIDONIANS There is an antology of jokes (Philogelos) compiled in the Hellenistic period. The butt of jokes are Sidonians who represent foolishness (something not attested elsewhere). Some of the jokes are remarkably modern. Permalink 2020-08-27 11:20:07

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-27 02:40:04

@nntaleb I meant a cut of the profits Permalink 2020-08-27 02:28:39

@nntaleb Aleppo was on the silk road. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:15:20

@nntaleb A Syrian joke: Put three persons from Aleppo in the same room; they will create a commodities market. Put three people from Damascus & they will form a political party. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:11:21

@nntaleb I was only employed for 7 ½ years in total, but in 1987 as a trader we had a cut and the job instability of entrepreneurs. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:08:45

@nntaleb “We don’t do Jobs” In 1989, a bunch of young Aleppo Jews arrived in NY, the last to leave Syria. A friend of mine went to greet them & offer help in securing employment: “We don’t do jobs” They started selling shoes in Harlem & the Bronx. 30 y later they all have yuuge mansions. Permalink 2020-08-27 01:30:46

@nntaleb Which joke? Permalink 2020-08-27 00:46:21

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-08-26 23:45:07

@nntaleb The skew decreased for those using Black Scholes. But most traders used their own intuitive pricing in the pits. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:53:51

@nntaleb Not really. There was a skew before for OTM. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:20:15

@nntaleb Hi John (if I may) It is explained much much better here Ciao, N Permalink 2020-08-26 20:38:24

@nntaleb En corse? @diankarlu Permalink 2020-08-26 19:27:34

@nntaleb Must be a station for travelers pple out of town Permalink 2020-08-26 18:07:14

@nntaleb Possible but more likely bad birth records Permalink 2020-08-26 17:45:51

@nntaleb Your harmless insult would have more value if you showed your identity (#Skininthegame). As such it is solely an expression of being a loser. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:35:45

@nntaleb Posting the errata for STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. The PDF will update next week. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:32:33

@nntaleb You can disagree without pathologizing him for being Jewish. The Thawra has NOTHING to gain from it. NOTHING. Grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:27:19

@nntaleb It is usually the real losers who play naked cowardly bigotry against a defenseless super-minority (Jewish). If you had any self respect, you would be showing your name. Try to be useful to the Thawra, grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:25:15

@nntaleb In #SkinintheGame I was shocked to see Italians eating at MacDonalds in the Milan train station: it’s abt lowering the variance, trading quality for certainty & reliability. It’s the same reason you hire employees: for their predictability/reliable mediocrity, never for quality. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:02:02

@nntaleb Has ALSO been tested by time. Permalink 2020-08-26 15:03:30

@nntaleb In Principia Politica: Permalink 2020-08-26 15:01:14

@nntaleb This is BULLSHIT. The term antisemite means targeting Jews specifically. You should be ashamed as it is a huge embarassment for the Thawra. Permalink 2020-08-26 11:53:12

@nntaleb Yes but I like to be free. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:56:48

@nntaleb I was approached for the board. I don’t do boards. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:45:01

@nntaleb Antisemitism is bad for Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:43:31

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class. Permalink 2020-08-25 21:02:48


@nntaleb Make a list of quacks and put him on it. It’s easy. Permalink 2020-08-25 19:06:18

@nntaleb Another signal. They add up. Wear a mask. via @business Permalink 2020-08-25 18:01:27

@nntaleb 1 year! Permalink 2020-08-25 17:44:55

@nntaleb Why the fuck does his background have anything to do with anything? This is SHAMEFUL. Delete your tweet. Permalink 2020-08-25 17:40:44

@nntaleb Waiting for the findings by @stan_yurin and the Shill Buster for the amusement. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:57:55

@nntaleb No, still the first. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:23:20

@nntaleb SILENT RISK, Vol 2 of the Technical Incerto Once you get the title right, the book writes itself. Permalink 2020-08-25 14:44:54

@nntaleb Yes otherwise you would have no MDs Permalink 2020-08-25 13:34:35

@nntaleb You are both right. A weak argument becomes a fallacy when used out of context. As with that FrancoOxford idiot & @BallouxFrancois Permalink 2020-08-25 13:11:48

@nntaleb “I am a professorrr at Oxford HENCE I understand RISK Hence I decide who does and doesn’t understand RISK”. Straight character out of #Antifragile, @JBerestycki is like one of those nuns lecturing street prostitutes on sexual positions & how to scam clients. #ExpertProblem #IYI Permalink 2020-08-25 12:16:29

@nntaleb 2/ And of course I do not mandate lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:11:07

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, read Hayek. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:03:15

@nntaleb This is shoddy journalism: the authors insists that Falwell was a Trump supporter. If someone who violates a moral rule loves watching Mickey House, Mickey Mouse now has a partial agency of the moral violation. [Journos violate this rule on both sides, as with Epstein.] Permalink 2020-08-24 22:59:30

@nntaleb Thanks Gary for helping him. Chap 3 is nontechnical Permalink 2020-08-24 21:18:00

@nntaleb There is no “real world risk”. It is risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 21:00:09

@nntaleb Or risk. This fucking idiot Julien Berestycki can make NO statement about risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 20:40:55

@nntaleb Equal weighted and rebalanced? Or rebalanced once? Permalink 2020-08-24 18:44:50

@nntaleb No, può sorgere con me. Mangio sempre trippa e la do agli ospiti. Permalink 2020-08-24 18:43:43

@nntaleb Block. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:56:41

@nntaleb So long as it is comprehensive, no. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:46:29

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-24 17:44:51

@nntaleb Thanks! Can you show us the clusters? Permalink 2020-08-24 17:39:55

@nntaleb A summary of my IQ piece. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:14:53

@nntaleb Download the PDF and print it Permalink 2020-08-24 16:28:54

@nntaleb Explain what you mean. Permalink 2020-08-24 14:10:35

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STAT CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping.… And remember the PDF is Free!… Permalink 2020-08-24 14:02:14

@nntaleb Baalbeck = Heliopolos, so very credible. Permalink 2020-08-24 13:51:01

@nntaleb Sorry but I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-08-24 12:58:08

@nntaleb This is not a “wall of shame” made by anyone I know. This is a Wall of Fame promoted by the anti-mask-virus-is-a-hoax industry, with a message to support their tweets. Gabish? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:57:38

@nntaleb You are not getting what fat tails mean here. It is the spread in the environment/disruption cascades Permalink 2020-08-24 12:42:14

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean by cannot invoke any credible mechanism? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:37:12

@nntaleb Neither Ioannidis nor Levitt (nor even clueless Balloux) are directly involved but there is a group of active astroturfers for the mask-denying-virus-is-a-hoax agenda. As w/Monsanto, could be traced to PR firm. Suspicion: someone w/investments in airlines/hospitality funding. Permalink 2020-08-24 12:29:40

@nntaleb If your prior is thin tails your posterior becomes fat tails after one single observation Permalink 2020-08-24 11:04:23

@nntaleb I will start a dialogue as follows (frm your site you seem trustworthy) We’re not saying this is worse than anything. Pls read our debate w/Ioannidis(a gntlman). Please comment honestly; I will not be upset if unlike Belloux you point at *precise* flaws. Permalink 2020-08-24 01:49:16

@nntaleb Mr Househ, I can engage you outside this conversation if you wish. Permalink 2020-08-24 01:22:43

@nntaleb Why didn’t you come to the last day of RWRI? Permalink 2020-08-24 01:19:34

@nntaleb @gabrielpeyre Permalink 2020-08-24 01:17:13

@nntaleb Beware statements like “it does not depend on the law of the entries”. Convergence is super-slow, only works at infinity. I show example in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, but with Fat tails (free PDF). Permalink 2020-08-24 01:13:09

@nntaleb Here is the hall of “experts”: 3-4 down out of 12 (includ. civilized debate w/Ioannidis), but others would be scraping the bottom of the pot. These “experts” are being used for backup by the politicized no-mask-virus-is-a-hoax mob (see from @BallouxFrancois’s feed). Permalink 2020-08-24 00:05:26

@nntaleb My friend, stamp tax in the UK made houses rich owing to CFDs (Contracts for differences). Permalink 2020-08-23 23:31:57

@nntaleb Mni7a Permalink 2020-08-23 21:21:58

@nntaleb Not related. Shammas is from an old pagan practice (Shams) means acolyte for both Christians and Mizrahi Jews Permalink 2020-08-23 21:17:35

@nntaleb When someone declares “I will not devote more time to this”, it is a guarantee he will spend more time on it. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:16:14

@nntaleb I mean garbiyo Permalink 2020-08-23 21:10:30

@nntaleb Plural? Permalink 2020-08-23 21:09:27

@nntaleb Yes, indeed. But I wonder why in Syriac North is Gharbiyo. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:05:10

@nntaleb Yes my interest is in EXONAMES given by the conquerrors as a geographic position w/reference to them. Sham is an exoname (relates to someone south of you). Maghreb is one. Anatolia is one. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:51:25

@nntaleb OK, OK, I made a mistake: there are some Dimashqi, but much much fewer than Shami. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:46:54

@nntaleb I meant in the vernaculars Permalink 2020-08-23 20:41:31

@nntaleb Yes that’s what I was looking for. @QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 20:36:49

@nntaleb No. Mikdash vs Mshkan. Easy for us to get (maskan). Permalink 2020-08-23 20:35:25

@nntaleb Relax, MSM. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:33:17

@nntaleb I was wondering when the name stopped and when it resumed. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:32:02

@nntaleb Was that name given during Nahda? Permalink 2020-08-23 20:07:37

@nntaleb Elia Capitolina. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:06:28

@nntaleb Or the Syriac, I don’t know if ܕܰܪܡܣܘܩܳܝܐ was used before Nahda. @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 20:02:08

@nntaleb After Nahda. cc:@QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 19:51:01

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The name Dimashq دمشق was almost never used in Ar. for 1200 y before Orientalists, but exoname “AlSham” الشام (“the North”). For Ottomans “Şam Sancağı” Hint: There are family names “Shami”, no “Dimashqi”. Same for Jerusalem: اورشليم was القدس.(=>Qudsi) Permalink 2020-08-23 19:48:10

@nntaleb Was in 2018 Permalink 2020-08-23 17:27:13

@nntaleb Lessons from the errors of @BallouxFrancois 1- RISKS: for 1 indiv. is the real of medicine/biology. Risk for a collective is statistical modeling. For >10^6, Extreme Value Theory. 2- ACTION: For indiv it is abt health. For collective, it is all about connectivity. Permalink 2020-08-23 17:07:28

@nntaleb That was March 11 Permalink 2020-08-23 16:22:39

@nntaleb In Berytus restaurants, Mazaher Permalink 2020-08-23 16:15:38

@nntaleb Yes he does not know how to calculate risk. Not at all. He conflates individual and aggregate. I saw numerous errors before yesterday. Totally clueless. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:59:36

@nntaleb “Please stop; please stop!”… “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t yet know what he is getting into. This is just the prologue. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:38:23

@nntaleb 4/ Please be careful about the “Sweden argument”. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:18:37

@nntaleb 3/ FALSE DICHOTOMIES: Economy vs virus. Most bus failures come from risk aversion. Nonlinearity: hosp capacity gets overhelmed. We are progressively learning abt the disease: BUY TIME, w/treatments improving, perhaps vaccine. Most effective: masks+superspreaders for now Permalink 2020-08-23 14:48:56

@nntaleb 2 Permalink 2020-08-23 14:40:08

@nntaleb Balloux has NO idea how to calculate risk, but not my point here: he give fodder to a crowd of crackpots. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:28:50

@nntaleb 2/MYTHS BY CRANKS a- “Masks are not effective” (using “sounds scientific” biology argument) b- Measures carry economic costs: no, it’s the VIRUS that’s costly [See debate w/Ioannidis]. c- “Death numbers are low” w/o realizing it is BECAUSE of measures. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:25:43

@nntaleb Friends, there is a mob of “COVID is not serious” (even hoax) politicized attack dogs w/no notion of science nor interest in it who tag to the very few play-the-system risk-clueless academics like @BallouxFrancois carrying THE msg that fits them. Any other compromised academic? Permalink 2020-08-23 14:03:59

@nntaleb Marsa= port en Phenicien Permalink 2020-08-23 13:40:57

@nntaleb Try Amioun outdoor cafés. I work there all the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:14:42

@nntaleb I fail to understand why all your cartoons make me morose and serious when I joke 99.999999% of the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:12:13

@nntaleb @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 13:09:59

@nntaleb L’accento siciliano è vicino all’arabo: p diventa b, o diventa u, c diventa g-q Permalink 2020-08-23 13:04:44

@nntaleb Cavendish, Wolfram. You need independence. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:01:29

@nntaleb Barli sicilianu? Permalink 2020-08-23 12:57:35

@nntaleb 10 – 12 episodi, per imparare il siciliano Permalink 2020-08-23 12:55:57

@nntaleb No. Permalink 2020-08-23 12:48:33

@nntaleb Il commissario Montalbano beve il caffè del mattino Permalink 2020-08-23 12:47:43

@nntaleb Now a ref for the genre (don’t quite agree w/Raoult rather w/his style) Raoult: “He is a kind of Nassim Taleb of infectious disease. He is brilliant, doesn’t feign false humility, & claims rather persuasively that he’s indifferent to many of his critics.” Permalink 2020-08-23 12:29:52

@nntaleb Same. It is never fun unless it is all together. Noticed t you were also MD. We had 2 of them. Permalink 2020-08-23 11:56:15

@nntaleb No but same thing for prof Permalink 2020-08-23 01:30:20

@nntaleb Very illustrative of power laws: at #RWRI we observed an 80/20 rule: we were ~ 100 & 20 people contributed to >80% of the discussions. Permalink 2020-08-23 00:12:23

@nntaleb Why? Permalink 2020-08-22 22:14:51

@nntaleb That “wouldn’t happen” Permalink 2020-08-22 21:04:47

@nntaleb Balloux, if there was a flaw in the paper Mr Curtis would have made a PRECISE point, as I did with you, not some vague comment about the presentation. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:58:47

@nntaleb Dave Curtis, imbecile, 1- Stat/math journals do not have impact factors comparable to medicine (there are 100 times more bullshitting doctors like you than statisticians). IJF is among the top. 2- Explain why I should care about what epidemiologists think? Permalink 2020-08-22 19:42:52

@nntaleb So why the fuck are you imparting statements I did not make? And opinions I DO NOT HAVE? OF COURSE known situation warrants a lower level of precaution (less uncertainty) and more targeted mitigation, no lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:17:12

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not about precaution but this idiot Francois ignorant about basic risk comparisons. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:12:08

@nntaleb 2) Many misunderstood. If I block you it does not mean I am upset, only that I don’t like noise on my TL. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:37:37

@nntaleb This it turned out is part of a bunch of shills from the Monsanto days against our GMO paper. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:36:43

@nntaleb You don’t know Wittgenstein’s ruler. Can’t read as I’ve blocked that troll. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:57:28

@nntaleb Needless to say my solution is the least elegant here! Permalink 2020-08-22 14:40:17

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-22 14:35:57

@nntaleb Post #RWRI relaxation. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:05:52

@nntaleb He is not blocked. You’re the idiot. Ha. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:34:49

@nntaleb To figure out if someone is an idiot, call him an idiot and check if he gets upset. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:25:56

@nntaleb The take home is everything is convex from 0 up to a point. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:14:23

@nntaleb Risk is not his job, obviously. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:02:56

@nntaleb May get concave somewhere, not here & depends how you scale. Log[yield]= \alpha Log[size] so yield =size^\alpha here >1 hence convex at least within range, up till the Taylor limit. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:01:25

@nntaleb سلامتك! Permalink 2020-08-22 01:51:36

@nntaleb Impressive! Permalink 2020-08-22 00:56:18

@nntaleb Compare to last year’s numbers… Permalink 2020-08-21 23:19:22

@nntaleb Your interlocutor was blocked for trolling. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:18:24

@nntaleb 5) And I DO NOT advocate lockdowns (except “in extremis”), rather controlling superspreaders, hyperactive testing, border control & forcing face masks. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:08:49

@nntaleb I see Boldrin on my thread whom I blocked for charlatanism. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:59:20

@nntaleb 4) When I call pple idiots, they have earned it, BSF (“BS-Frankie @BallouxFrancois). For every location, relative changes in Covid fatalities proved > 100 time higher than relative Δ road deaths. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:44:15

@nntaleb 3) Even without fat tails “BS-Frankie” @BallouxFrancois is failing elemtary statistics (Sat 101): comparing 2 variables with different variances (one very low, other very very high). Permalink 2020-08-21 22:06:26

@nntaleb 2) The other thing this marshmallowbrained “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t get is that the #of people who died from COVID accounts for mitigation & risk control measures. It’s like saying: we don’t need security checks since planes aren’t crashing. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:53:20

@nntaleb It is remarkable that you have idiots like this “Prof” @BallouxFrancois who conflate additive risks with multiplicative ones (fat tailed), a mistake your grandmother wouldn’t make. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:27:23

@nntaleb Education w/low tolerance for boring things. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:25:31

@nntaleb Yes < 1/4 could be an inequality. Being conservative with a square law. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:58:06

@nntaleb BEIRUT EXPLOSION at #RWRI: all abt CONCENTRATION & CONVEXITY It has nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with anything except concentration/scaling & 1/n rule of harm: If the Chernobyl plant was ½ the size, damage would be ~1/4. See #Antifragile #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-21 20:51:32

@nntaleb I keep repeating in the INCERTO: take stressors in the middle, be paranoid in the TAILS. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:46:11

@nntaleb 3 times distilled. Permalink 2020-08-21 19:24:26

@nntaleb It is actually finite mean because boundedness. But remote. ANd LLN is slow. Permalink 2020-08-21 14:41:24

@nntaleb If data can be explained by BOTH fat tails & thin tails, then it must be fat tailed. This is the Masquerade Problem: there is a hierarchy of distributions. Note: Every Power law can be explained ex post by a sum of Poissons. But a Poisson cannot be explained by a PL. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-21 14:21:39

@nntaleb Non car si on leve 400 livres la pression arterielle va a 30/15 donc on est SUR qu’il n’y pas de rupture possible. Comme un test de stress. Permalink 2020-08-21 12:44:18

@nntaleb Where is Musar? Permalink 2020-08-21 00:09:22

@nntaleb Wine. We want to see. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:58:49

@nntaleb 135… but watch out! the weights are loose. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:57:15

@nntaleb To sleep well: hedge all your tail exposures. #RWRI + hide nothing from your enemies + pay all your taxes, show the IRS all your income mother of all tail risks) + be uncancellable + back up all your data + have some gold (and/or BTC) but not too much … Permalink 2020-08-20 20:56:09

@nntaleb How high ? Permalink 2020-08-20 20:39:58

@nntaleb Indeed. Most asymptomatic people have “something wrong” in their MRI. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:32:51

@nntaleb It means that one may have centrist opinions on balance, but not be systematically in the center for EVERY issue. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:08:13

@nntaleb I fixed my own by lifting weight progressively Permalink 2020-08-20 14:45:08

@nntaleb Can you go bullshit elsewhere, please? Permalink 2020-08-20 11:09:55

@nntaleb You sleep better when you have tail risk hedges. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-20 11:01:17

@nntaleb and to thank @rperezmarco and @joe_shipman ! Permalink 2020-08-20 02:00:22

@nntaleb Forgot to thank you. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:59:34

@nntaleb I also run mine with water. Cleans the filter. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:43:04

#RWRI, Michael Levitt, Pinker, Kucharski, JACOBINISM, Diab | Twitter

COVID-19 brought socialism to America – Nassim Taleb | SophieCo. Visionaries
The COVID-19 pandemic came as an external shock, almost unprecedented. How can we navigate the uncertainty of the post-pandemic future? We talked to the author of bestselling books ‘The Black Swan’, ‘Antifragile’, and ‘Skin in the Game’, risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

@nntaleb 4/ PS- The argument that someone has a Nobel (particularly in an unrelated field) is EXACTLY the bad side of ad hominem. Permalink 2020-08-19 15:40:35

@nntaleb 3/ True humility (“humbleness”), Mr Levitt, @MLevitt_NP2013, is not in bowing to the “Nobel privilege”; it lies in understanding that we live in a world lacking certainties & acting accordingly, not risking lives via charlatanic claims. Permalink 2020-08-19 11:06:21

@nntaleb 2/ @MLevitt_NP2013 is offended that thanks to his Nobel privilege in… chemistry we shd bow to him for his ignorance in Extreme Value Th & probabilistic risk analysis. This is what we called the #CarpenterFallacy PS: Levitt forecast Israel <=10 deaths Permalink 2020-08-19 10:01:59

@nntaleb It is in there. The Koura is the southernmost part. Permalink 2020-08-19 09:46:14

@nntaleb Explains the culture of the Koura valley south of Antioch. Permalink 2020-08-19 02:50:39

@nntaleb Your seats reserved for the next RWRI. Permalink 2020-08-19 01:05:01

@nntaleb Back in stock. And link for the free PDF. If you want to save money, feel free to download & print. Permalink 2020-08-19 01:03:41

@nntaleb Blood pressure also rises Permalink 2020-08-18 21:56:44

@nntaleb We used to have physical fights before Zoom Permalink 2020-08-18 21:11:44

@nntaleb No, one needs to let others speak. Permalink 2020-08-18 17:31:20

@nntaleb Unreadable… Permalink 2020-08-18 16:49:35

@nntaleb Steve Wolfram. Permalink 2020-08-18 11:47:53

@nntaleb Bad quality! @zachobront Permalink 2020-08-18 11:10:49

@nntaleb End of book Permalink 2020-08-17 14:46:18

@nntaleb Jaffer is Palestinian. If he openly says that he will vote for Trump, you can expect many people classified on the left to do so, but covertly. Pardoning Snowden will draw many voters wary of the “deep state”. Permalink 2020-08-17 02:08:56

@nntaleb 2/ Can someone give an intuitive proof of the law of iterated expectations? Words only, no math. Permalink 2020-08-17 01:17:15

@nntaleb This reminds me of the statement “the probability is now 100%. But it could change.” Permalink 2020-08-16 23:19:06

@nntaleb How can you get in? US citizens are banned. Permalink 2020-08-16 23:17:48

@nntaleb Wrong heuristic/definition of wrgodicity Permalink 2020-08-16 20:37:08

@nntaleb Actually a lot of farmers from Asia Minor. Google it. Permalink 2020-08-16 20:18:32

@nntaleb If this works, outperforms any quarantine! More so if false negatives correlate to contagiousness. Permalink 2020-08-16 19:55:55

@nntaleb No… Permalink 2020-08-16 18:12:02

@nntaleb Scribes in Egypt Permalink 2020-08-16 14:12:03

@nntaleb To understand scaling in politics/economics/culture: Mediterraneans (olive oil pple) have traditionally done best in groups & organizations of size n. Creating large orgs/states= Procrustean bed. Discuss. Permalink 2020-08-16 13:39:56

@nntaleb Explain why it is the same word in Greek. Explain why it is relevant to my aphorism. Or shut the fuck up. Permalink 2020-08-16 13:30:15

@nntaleb We need a federal system. Last ditch solution. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:57:04

@nntaleb Nor did Pinker answer why he states Richardson’s analysis backward. Never corrected. Nor does he explain how an undefined (or infinite) mean can drop. #BSVendor Permalink 2020-08-16 12:44:25

@nntaleb The reason I said “dishonest” is because of other subsequent statistical analyses (like Clauset below) confirming our point: Pinker DID NOT answer them. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:41:30

@nntaleb A bunch of nitpickers making a historical distinction between “democracy” and “republic” irrelevant to the aphorism –like all nitpickers, fundamentally ignorant. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:16:11

@nntaleb My explanation. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:10:34

@nntaleb Interarrival time for large wars is 50-150 years, with mean deviation very high. Means he is talking noise. Permalink 2020-08-16 02:14:50

@nntaleb {1,1,1,0,0,0} and {1,0,1,0,1,0} have a ⅓ correlation. At the limit of n large, the CDF of a Bivariate normal in the positive quadrant for both variables. We can ignore the variance at root{n} because of symmetry. Permalink 2020-08-16 01:53:58

@nntaleb More evidence that 1) @sapinker is ignorant of statistics, 2) is dishonest about it. [Such reasoning (not the unethical part) is called the “Pinker Problem” in Stat Consequences of Fat Tails] Permalink 2020-08-16 01:50:44

@nntaleb My solution above is exact: 1/4 +\frac{ArcSin(⅓)} {2\pi} Permalink 2020-08-16 01:40:07

@nntaleb My solution is LOCALISM. Regional autonomy. No central state can work in Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-16 01:37:57

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-16 01:36:00

@nntaleb New formatting for Principia Politica (similar to Stat Cons FT). Now I wonder if it should not be in the Technical Incerto rather than the Incerto. It is not written in an essay language, but a more formal document. Permalink 2020-08-15 21:16:18

@nntaleb Excess death are ALREADY >200K over similar pasr periods (reported death rate <= true death rate, to do stats properly). And that’s not the fucking point: he would be wrong even if he got the number right. You don’t make claims of n=1 in high variance. Can’t you get the point? Permalink 2020-08-15 19:02:23

@nntaleb Democracy: representation by a very narrow selection of people whose principal attributes & skills are that they are very, very good at being elected. Permalink 2020-08-15 18:36:43

@nntaleb You are mistaking the necessary for the sufficient Permalink 2020-08-15 18:27:38

@nntaleb 1- I never take any advice from someone I didn’t ask for advice. [Rephrased] Permalink 2020-08-15 18:26:55

@nntaleb There are other tests of moments, or use of EVT that can confirm. Permalink 2020-08-15 18:03:23

@nntaleb Marshmallowbrain, death rates are already higher than 170k Permalink 2020-08-15 17:59:50

@nntaleb Why does anyone take Michael Levitt seriously? It’s not that his predictions are wrong (they are), but worse: it is unrigorous to engage in single point predictions (n=1) in a high variance &/or Fat Tailed environment. Permalink 2020-08-15 16:56:57

@nntaleb No idea. Unblocked. Permalink 2020-08-15 16:19:03

@nntaleb Per le distribuzioni normale e lognormale l’incertezza aumenta con l’ “orizzonte” temporale. Per le code grasse, l’incertezza è sempre massima! Permalink 2020-08-15 15:56:44

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, I am not removing people who disagree, rather trolls and people who engage in sophistry. Like you. Permalink 2020-08-15 15:39:36

@nntaleb Journos fail to get that Shiites can BOTH worship Nasrallah & want him OUT of daily government. How? The French & Brits both worshiped & voted out De Gaulle & Churchill resp. after the war. The French called De Gaulle back for the Algerian war. Permalink 2020-08-15 15:28:37

@nntaleb The problem with #RWRI is that 20% of attendees are return students, #growing every time, so we may converge to a 100% repeat. Permalink 2020-08-15 11:50:44

@nntaleb Jean, not true. N W Levant (Galilee to Antioch+ Damascus) has ~no Peninsular genetics (all Med-Anatolian) Bt Syria has tons in SE Saudi Arabia has 13% Levantine-Anatolian genetics which may have confused some, But no need for a Levantine nation-state: as w/Scandinavia. Permalink 2020-08-15 11:46:35

@nntaleb “Considered” is not a metric (revelation of preferences). How many did? More than other months? Permalink 2020-08-15 01:40:19

@nntaleb I just showed that our grandmothers know more probability theory and risk management than @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein. Permalink 2020-08-15 01:19:36

@nntaleb Essaye par SCRIBE pour $50. Aussi on doit deplacer lundi. 2e session marche? Permalink 2020-08-15 01:17:10

@nntaleb He added “Gabish” to the intellectual tradition Permalink 2020-08-15 01:03:41

@nntaleb Sorry! Permalink 2020-08-14 21:53:54

@nntaleb You are welcome to barge in any time. Permalink 2020-08-14 21:41:09

@nntaleb RWRI Permalink 2020-08-14 15:02:36

@nntaleb GDP is off Permalink 2020-08-14 11:23:21

@nntaleb This is mostly because Kucharski is a “peer-review” poseur does not understand fat tails & their consequences. Epidemiologists are stuck in a citation ring. See our discussion with Ioannidis. Permalink 2020-08-14 11:17:50

@nntaleb New grind Permalink 2020-08-14 11:11:46

@nntaleb Excellent service you are getting, namesake. The big boss is taking care of this. Permalink 2020-08-13 20:39:45

@nntaleb Sir Karl usually wears open neck sweaters. Permalink 2020-08-13 18:14:19

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-13 17:33:37

@nntaleb Covid models Optional #RWRI session with Diego Zviovich Permalink 2020-08-13 17:31:56

@nntaleb @dzviovich Permalink 2020-08-13 14:57:23

@nntaleb Not kidding. The publisher-facilitator makes a yuuuuge difference when you go for maximum quality, no compromise. Physical books are objects, not disposable items. @zachobront Permalink 2020-08-13 12:13:54

@nntaleb I told you so Permalink 2020-08-13 12:11:59

@nntaleb It is all in the olive smell and the paper quality. Permalink 2020-08-13 12:08:44

@nntaleb Friends, the book is back in stock on AMZN and below. We still guarantee the $49.95 for worldwide shipping. But I have a question: why the f*** are so many people interested in a technical book? Because of the colors? the olive smell? Permalink 2020-08-13 11:58:59

@nntaleb JACOBINISM Friends, in French Jacobinisms maps exactly to my nightmare: a centralized nation-state w/IYIs running it, coupled with a monolithic national identity (anti-localism, anti-minorities, anti-multiculturalism). What would be the corresponding English term? Permalink 2020-08-13 10:53:16

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile I spent ⅓ of my time in Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-13 10:44:29

@nntaleb Same as in Western Aramaic? Permalink 2020-08-12 23:48:37

@nntaleb In other words, better say “I don’t know” then “I now know” than say “I know”, then “I didn’t know”. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-12 14:42:38

@nntaleb RWRI 14 Online #RWRI 15 instructors, 12 in the room. Permalink 2020-08-12 14:29:18

@nntaleb “You exist in full if and only if your conversation (or writings) can not be easily reconstructed with clips from other conversations. “ Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-08-12 12:03:12

@nntaleb Ounce of precaution vs pound of cure Our precautionary approach to COVID has been to become progressively less worried as we got additional information. The WHO, newsidiots, & bureaucrats did exact opposite: acted more worried as they received more information. #RWRI #RWRI14 Permalink 2020-08-12 12:00:49

@nntaleb Med doors Permalink 2020-08-12 00:14:11

@nntaleb No comparison. Not close. Permalink 2020-08-11 21:41:15

@nntaleb Fucking idiot get your comparisons right. My readers do not barge into my living room or troll my other readers. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:50:22

@nntaleb He does not know what totalitarian means. A feed is a private property. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:22:00

@nntaleb There is nothing wrong with the “joke”. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:21:10

@nntaleb Done Permalink 2020-08-11 19:23:02

@nntaleb Diab is not evil, just v. naive. The myth is that ministers control ministries. Insiders (decades) can resist their control. The only cure is: Augean stable/smashing bureaucracies, & decentralization. Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. #localism Permalink 2020-08-11 12:15:37

@nntaleb It did not hit this moron @DavidDaoud that the fellow is not speaking Arabic but Levantine. Permalink 2020-08-11 10:24:54

@nntaleb Almost: All models are wrong, many are useful, some are deadly. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:43:51

@nntaleb There are scholarships. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:38:26

@nntaleb This time the ratio is much much higher. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:37:41

@nntaleb Slavic from where? Permalink 2020-08-10 16:47:55

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-10 10:34:30

@nntaleb Used to be Ba7r l Rum Permalink 2020-08-10 09:27:59

@nntaleb I can unblock Permalink 2020-08-09 22:28:00

@nntaleb Same. Permalink 2020-08-09 21:37:51

@nntaleb DIFFERENT VARIETIES OF PEACE Peace between Israelis & Palestinians cannot happen from the top (a la Oslo). Peace between Israel & Hezbollah/Iran can easily happen from the top because the tension is from the top. Permalink 2020-08-09 20:30:59

@nntaleb Some bitter imbecile I’ve blocked. Permalink 2020-08-09 20:27:09

@nntaleb Levantines in Mexico are fish in water. Permalink 2020-08-09 19:46:00

@nntaleb Nothing to do with Phoenicianism. Levant is part of Anatolia, a cluster Turkey-Armenia-Cyprus-Greece, our brothers in food, dance, genetic, etc. Permalink 2020-08-09 19:39:24

@nntaleb Spain is Med as hell Permalink 2020-08-09 18:49:43

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Mediterranean Again #MakeLebanonMediterraneanAgain And for our other Med brothers in the Levant #MakeTheLevantMediterraneanAgain Permalink 2020-08-09 18:09:07

@nntaleb No, no, no, please! Real reviews are of the type you just did: spontaneously and linked to YOUR understanding. Please continue the way you started. Permalink 2020-08-09 17:58:14

@nntaleb Triple imbecile you are not getting the point and it has NOTHING to do with books on probability. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 16:54:46

@nntaleb My first book review by a real user. Permalink 2020-08-09 16:52:45

@nntaleb Moving on is not geographic, idiot. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:34:25

@nntaleb No, fuck that. Probability. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:17:44

@nntaleb Family, imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:16:44

@nntaleb You don’t get the notion of neutrality? The judge should be one of the parties? Permalink 2020-08-09 14:15:30

@nntaleb You seem clueless. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:57:36

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:52:54

@nntaleb Yes government is using it to prevent riots but still can’t compare numbers. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:52:14

@nntaleb No double blind study. We need volunteers. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:48:31

@nntaleb UN Security Council: We require an independent investigation – Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-08-09 13:47:05

@nntaleb Good ideas about rent seeking. But he is no scholar. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:40:48

@nntaleb Family name? Can look up Permalink 2020-08-09 13:19:14

@nntaleb Blood disease markers match NW Greece. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:16:26

@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability (uses Gaussian metrics outside domain). All papers are flawed. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:54:40

@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:53:55

@nntaleb Many Maronites are Armenians, All Sunnis are of Rum origin. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:52:17

@nntaleb We had Russia before 1917. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:32:42

@nntaleb We the Rum do not consider ourselves “Greek” (a nation-state modern invention in the 1800s) but Romaics (Byzantine), closer to “Hellenistic”. That is, East Romans, un point c’est tout. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:31:43

@nntaleb Most Rum in the Koura are actually Macedonian in origin; Those in N Syria are Anatolian-Aegean Greeks. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:29:55

@nntaleb Please read the paper before rehashing platitudes. It is not our point. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:17:29

@nntaleb Science is not about naive “evidence”; science is about properties, some of which can be revealed by evidence. Our paper in the debate with Ioannidis. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:07:28

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 11:30:47

@nntaleb No, and not >= but strict equality. = 1 is an exponential (memoriless) Permalink 2020-08-09 11:02:57

@nntaleb INTELLECTUAL VERBALISMS Ms. Saad assumes that if people are fed up w/corruption, it *necessarily* comes from geopolitics, a US-concocted plot and neo-colonialism. No, Iranian influence is a native thing, not interventionism at all. Note: BTW, Iran is bankrupt. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:51:45

@nntaleb There is no “evidence” a spear through the skull represents significant danger, since I never saw a “peer-reviewed” paper to that effect. #EvidenceBasedBS #WearAMaskForTheSakeofOthers Permalink 2020-08-09 10:46:49

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-09 10:40:44

@nntaleb I block for bullshitting. You want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-08-09 10:39:08

@nntaleb My father found that (Ruffiè and Taleb, 1964) from rare blood diseases. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:35:35

@nntaleb \frac{1}{a} E(X | X>=a) >1 Permalink 2020-08-09 10:34:39

@nntaleb Comes partly from S. Italians and Etruscans being Anatolian, same as Canaanites. They came from the same place. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:28:44

@nntaleb Can’t compare because the latter number is a function of precaution. Permalink 2020-08-09 09:52:25

@nntaleb Kurtosis ~3 Permalink 2020-08-09 01:36:18

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-09 01:09:03

@nntaleb Grandfather MP voted for Bachir. Permalink 2020-08-09 00:30:13

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-09 00:20:48

@nntaleb You know it’s a fraud: not by looking at the merchant, but just by looking at the customers. Permalink 2020-08-09 00:18:15

@nntaleb Localism Permalink 2020-08-08 23:22:43

@nntaleb Where did I say that ? Permalink 2020-08-08 22:22:49

@nntaleb Bullshitting != making mistakes Permalink 2020-08-08 21:56:00

@nntaleb I spent ⅓ of the time there. Go lecture someone else. Permalink 2020-08-08 21:43:22

@nntaleb I never block people who make mistakes, @kareem_carr. Permalink 2020-08-08 21:18:23

@nntaleb Not quite Permalink 2020-08-08 21:05:07

@nntaleb Give me a week for the new organization. Might be the Lebanese Red Cross. Thanks. Permalink 2020-08-08 20:30:52

@nntaleb Dist of #of runs, not max (yet) Permalink 2020-08-08 20:29:48

@nntaleb OK, Let me up the stakes, @octonion What is the distribution of the number of runs? (a run is an uninterrupted succession of H or T). This will allow us to get the exact expected maximum run. Ours was still a numerical hudge. (math to clear up my mind owing to #Lebanon ) Permalink 2020-08-08 19:41:50

@nntaleb Mediterraneans. Permalink 2020-08-08 19:27:36

@nntaleb Of course, send it back to where you bought it. Permalink 2020-08-08 19:26:56

@nntaleb WTF? Lebanese ≠ “Arab” Permalink 2020-08-08 19:13:17

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-08 18:49:37

@nntaleb Bravo! Permalink 2020-08-08 18:47:08

@nntaleb Thank you Twitter. The tweet👇generated >$30K (excluding my contribution). Will repeat in a few days with another organization (#diversification). Permalink 2020-08-08 18:08:24

@nntaleb Necessary and Sufficient. #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-08 18:01:33

@nntaleb Immediate elections. But better to be slow in cleaning shops [corruption] because of the French Revolution. The more you delay the worse the cleanup gets. Permalink 2020-08-08 17:35:37

@nntaleb Mabruk! Permalink 2020-08-08 17:26:41

@nntaleb Nothing in history that moved fast EVER worked. Transitions work. #Burke Permalink 2020-08-08 17:08:34

@nntaleb Cheers, [signed] XXX Permalink 2020-08-08 17:03:47

@nntaleb Idiots. Permalink 2020-08-08 16:43:34

@nntaleb This info by @halimshebaya is NOT false info. Many officials from corrupt regimes buy properties via LLC in the US. #MarwanPonzi Kheireddine is a beneficial owner of the LLC. People who bankrupt their banks can’t be smart. #MarwanPonzi was unable to hide his identity. Permalink 2020-08-08 16:26:22

@nntaleb x^2+1/x^2+2=5 (x+1/x)=sqrt(5) x=(\sqrt(5) \pm 1)½ Permalink 2020-08-08 14:10:47

@nntaleb There is a story about *some* “top” epidemiologists not understanding masks (nor epidemiology, nor convexity, nor life, nor much else). Wear a mask for the sake of others. Permalink 2020-08-08 13:02:05

@nntaleb Salemtak! Permalink 2020-08-08 11:55:49

@nntaleb This @mar1_k must first explain. Then eventually pay for this. Unlike with Madoff, all Lebanese Ponzi participants are still at large. “If you see fraud and don’t shout fraud you are a fraud.” Permalink 2020-08-08 11:33:43

@nntaleb Best to cancel and reorder on link above. Permalink 2020-08-08 11:18:22

@nntaleb No, Self-remade. Permalink 2020-08-08 10:57:15

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:26:17

@nntaleb Localism, I keep saying. You don’t replace a government that harms you with more government. Self-organization and bottom up government. Take things into your own hands. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:23:47

@nntaleb Excellent detection of the contradiction. I use revenge in my personal life, when it is a deterrent, but not in my collective-political one when things are settled. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:21:58

@nntaleb John Gray’s recommendation Permalink 2020-08-07 21:42:38

@nntaleb I block idiots. The only colonialism in Lebanon is 500 y of Ottoman, in which minorities learned to thrive (#Antifragile) (Fr spent 20 y as a LON mandate). “Past injustices fuel present injustices and focusing on those isn’t a weakness.” Some idiot looking for problem. Permalink 2020-08-07 19:33:55

@nntaleb Byzantine. Permalink 2020-08-07 19:27:15

@nntaleb Can someone dig Bo Winegard’s income? I bet you it is less than a blue collar person. cc:@Monsantobuster Permalink 2020-08-07 18:51:29

@nntaleb W inté wein 3éyesh? Permalink 2020-08-07 18:29:20

@nntaleb Into min 7aret l faw2a? Permalink 2020-08-07 18:09:53

@nntaleb 3indé 7ada ma3 Fresh $$$bi Bairut W kamén bb3at Bitcoin la 3alam. Permalink 2020-08-07 17:18:23

@nntaleb Too much sun Permalink 2020-08-07 17:12:36

@nntaleb Confirmed. Permalink 2020-08-07 17:11:01

@nntaleb Finally found source; added it to references. Permalink 2020-08-07 16:34:04

@nntaleb I have been giving direct to people hurt in #Lebanon, no intermediary. But for those w/o the network, I verified this group (I know some of the people involved very well; they are volunteers) and (#SKinInTheGame) will give also them $$to match some of your donations. Permalink 2020-08-07 16:24:42

@nntaleb I am not interested in people liking me. I am interested in people READING me. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:05:47

@nntaleb 2) Most of these colonial studies are built around retrospective acrimony as an industry by itself, by rent-seeking academics. Move on. Life is not zero sum. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:03:23

@nntaleb The more you get stuck in the past at past historical slights, the worse your progress. Move on; getting rich is the best revenge. In 1982 Assad (père) & warlord Frangié blew up our house in Amioun. I got rich & we built a bigger one. My way of saying F***k you. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:00:14

@nntaleb Prayers.🙏 Permalink 2020-08-07 13:51:16

@nntaleb Can’t you read a tweet? Reread above. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:40:42

@nntaleb Yes, non top-down Permalink 2020-08-07 13:36:58

@nntaleb Amazon recommending me to buy my own book. The book should be back in stock on AMZN next week. Meanwhile there is stock here: for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95.… Remember the PDF is Free Permalink 2020-08-07 13:35:21

@nntaleb Sub-imbecile, DNA of Lebanese (Muslims and Christians) is close to Imperial Romans. Sub-imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:29:31

@nntaleb Let’s be open to both interpretations. The Orthodox were sympathetic to the Ottomans, but we were not allowed to have bells in our churches. Catherine changed that. I think that the problems started as vicious circles of nationalism after the Greek independence wars. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:08:56

@nntaleb Idiots who recite post-colonial studies don’t get it that the Ottomans spent 500 years in Lebanon, the French military came as a League of Nations Mandate for ~22 years. French “influence”, if anything, decreased (Arabism + American University). Permalink 2020-08-07 12:16:56

@nntaleb Block conspiracy theorists. Permalink 2020-08-07 12:10:49

@nntaleb Salemtkon. Weyn kinto lamma saret? Permalink 2020-08-07 12:00:45

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:58:59

@nntaleb Theories by nuance-blind idiots. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:47:51

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:46:40

@nntaleb Localism Permalink 2020-08-07 11:40:26

@nntaleb Hi, we discontinued as the quality is of Book Depository is sub par. It is Print on Demand You can return it if you wish and order from the US the real one. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:38:30

@nntaleb I block idiots Permalink 2020-08-06 23:44:20

@nntaleb Apple cash is free! Permalink 2020-08-06 21:07:01

@nntaleb Can you help get a direct wire for larger $$? No fees, unlike Paypal, etc. Permalink 2020-08-06 20:32:25

@nntaleb Now, the real problemo. What is the distribution of the mean run? Permalink 2020-08-06 20:06:00

@nntaleb Bingo. The problem is the grievance industry. Permalink 2020-08-06 20:04:14

@nntaleb Do they go into fresh $$accounts? Permalink 2020-08-06 19:49:40

@nntaleb Blocked Permalink 2020-08-06 16:57:05

@nntaleb 2) Of the 3 million Gauls in what is now France, 1 million were killed, 1 million enslaved. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:56:55

@nntaleb STATUTES OF LIMITATION The French-Algerian war was 60 years ago. Unless you consider it settled, you are opening up to endless boomerangs of grief. For the Gauls were invaded & exterminated by Julius Cesar 2000 y ago. Should they ask Rome for reparation? Move on. Look ahead. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:50:09

@nntaleb No, just block. I did. Ostrakon. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:40:02

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff? Permalink 2020-08-06 16:36:34

@nntaleb I blocked him. Despicable man. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:01:24

@nntaleb CONSPIRACY THEORIES/FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS I explained in FBR how journos tend to always assign causes to random market moves. I stopped reading newspapers early on in my career. It is the exact same mechanism that makes us see conspiracies in place of accidents. Permalink 2020-08-06 14:51:38

@nntaleb OK, blocked. All conspiracy theories are blocked. Permalink 2020-08-06 14:41:39

@nntaleb Salemetkon Permalink 2020-08-06 14:25:34

@nntaleb Macron, we owe you. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:59:53

@nntaleb Fucking idiot show me the genetic evidence. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:51:19

@nntaleb Yves Smith is doing the job no journalist does anymore. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:35:29

@nntaleb My bedroom in Beirut (in the family place). Permalink 2020-08-06 13:29:16

@nntaleb Made in London from descriptions Permalink 2020-08-06 12:14:13

@nntaleb You seem to be on the wrong footing. You can’t seek peace by fighting a faction. They are the ones you need to deal with. Permalink 2020-08-06 12:09:10

@nntaleb I guess the debate about the “value” of tail risk hedging has ended. Permalink 2020-08-06 12:00:16

@nntaleb Good Permalink 2020-08-06 11:33:40

@nntaleb Good. But will take a while to thaw the ice. Permalink 2020-08-06 11:28:14

@nntaleb My question is: who died and how? Permalink 2020-08-06 00:19:05

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-05 23:52:54

@nntaleb My endorsement for his next book: “Gad Saad has more intellectual courage than many entire departments.” Permalink 2020-08-05 23:49:32

@nntaleb His Gadness has so much intellectual courage that I would never betray him. Permalink 2020-08-05 23:44:49

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has to do with food & sophistication Permalink 2020-08-05 23:02:11

@nntaleb Skin in the game. He is going to Lebanon tomorrow, after sending troops. No empty talk. Permalink 2020-08-05 22:45:34

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-05 22:34:35

@nntaleb This approach is critical and explains the parsimonious character of Extreme Value Theory: to figure out if a sequence is random, instead of counting heads and tails, start by looking at the maxima. See how much it diverges from 8. Permalink 2020-08-05 22:02:16

@nntaleb The formula would be to integrate ^250/mean assuming the distribution of the mean. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:13:40

@nntaleb No, a fudge. The 125 is a fudge. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:09:55

@nntaleb Waiting for more such studies. Morbidity seems to affect mild cases, as presumed in our debate with Ioannidis (Taleb Bar Yam, Cirillo, 2020, IJF). You need to account for morbidity, not just fatality, rates. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:01:59

@nntaleb Is there a BTC => Fresh dollars market? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-05 17:12:53

@nntaleb Fresh $$account Permalink 2020-08-05 16:02:42

@nntaleb 2/Some people on the thread are recommending NGOs. I tend to go direct, avoid professionals. Someone I know. And if you pick an organization, take one with volunteers, no professional staff. Permalink 2020-08-05 15:01:11

@nntaleb Nobody needs your prayers. Permalink 2020-08-05 14:54:24

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Stop the BS & the statements. Find pple in your circle who lost their home & offer $$to rebuild. Talk is cheap. Don’t call with words, call with $$. Now. PS- I block everyone engaging in conspiracy theories under such a tragedy. Permalink 2020-08-05 14:51:50

Manhattan, Ioannidis, NUCLEAR, Sunstein, FRAUD!!!!!, Thaler, Omar Sharif, Tetlock, Pinker, IQ, Playboy, BOOK PUBLISHING, Hagia Sophia | Twitter

Published on Jul 27, 2020
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
For transcript and links related to today’s episode:

The Masks Masquerade

Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility

Face Masks May be Necessary and Sufficient to Stop Covid-19
An entrepreneur’s perspective on Nassim Taleb’s conclusions about face masks

Podcast Notes: The Pandemic, Power of Masks, Levels of Risk and More | Nassim Nicholas Taleb on EconTalk

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)
Published on Feb 18, 2020
We explain the Kelly criterion and illustrate why “risk aversion” in Behavioral Finance is Micky Mouse(™) Science.

TLDR: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic A summary of the July 27, 2020 episode of EconTalk.

On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables (pdf)

@nntaleb Fireworks or ammunitions from the initial sparks. Stop the conspiracy theories, for Baal’s sake. No plane. Permalink 2020-08-04 16:38:01

@nntaleb Manhattan is dead & unflaneurable. Astoria Queens is more flaneurable: less pretentious & has much better Greek food, 30% blue collar customers instead of constipated book executives & philistines who read Harari. Even flaneuring can adapt well. Permalink 2020-08-04 14:33:56

@nntaleb Nikos Phililogos Permalink 2020-08-04 14:21:32

@nntaleb Scribe Permalink 2020-08-04 14:20:21

@nntaleb “Arabic”? WTF? Permalink 2020-08-04 14:19:29

@nntaleb Nobody noticed it is the Saint Petersburgh problem? Power law, if uncapped, with infinite mean. There is a Feller theorem about time to cross the origin following a Cauchy Permalink 2020-08-04 13:56:33

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 2020-08-04 13:29:12

@nntaleb You can easily copy one line, no? Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:53

@nntaleb Typo: m=250/2 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:37

@nntaleb And if you cheat (“verify”) by using Monte Carlo you get the same. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:25:29

@nntaleb My solution: 8.3 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:23:16

@nntaleb Not “Greek” olive oil. Lebanese olive oil from the Koura valley, so only ½ Greek. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:03:21

@nntaleb Not quite, my friend. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:27:22

@nntaleb Ok, Ok, Quiz What is the expected longest run generated by a random 250 coin tosses. A run is defined as n heads or n tails. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:24:14

@nntaleb Actually, no. People mistake length of runs for average of runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:25:44

@nntaleb Thanks Zhuo. Visibly your hand one does not have long runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:03:08

@nntaleb Using a Markov chain to estimate the expected number of runs. The number of runs of 7 must bet ~2 Permalink 2020-08-03 18:59:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you go give advice to someone else? Permalink 2020-08-03 14:17:33

@nntaleb III A wise decision is one that is sound both prospectively and retrospectively, in both foresight and hindsight. Our best definition of #Precaution Permalink 2020-08-03 13:52:37

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-03 13:32:00

@nntaleb Our debate with Ioannidis,II Plus why “forecasting” and “evidence based” are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb HOW TO HANDLE A PANDEMIC Our debate with John Ioannidis. Plus why naive single point “forecasting” and “evidence based” methods are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb You should detect by eyeballing. Permalink 2020-08-03 10:20:31

@nntaleb פה بالعبراني Permalink 2020-08-03 02:30:13

@nntaleb How many hours for $300? Permalink 2020-08-02 23:59:43

@nntaleb This is not quite a PL. Zifplots are insufficient. You need EVT to prove it. Would love to replicate. Permalink 2020-08-02 20:58:51

@nntaleb BM did not like this Permalink 2020-08-02 20:53:38

@nntaleb The sandpile story is controversial & supposedly Bak did not have a proof… Permalink 2020-08-02 19:57:42

@nntaleb Blocked the imbecile. He is just a photographer. Permalink 2020-08-02 19:13:37

@nntaleb I have an inside story of Mandelbrot on Per Bak Permalink 2020-08-02 18:44:27

@nntaleb SYSTEMIC RISK: non-diversifiable. You can in principle break-up into n reactors to get the needed risk diversification/prevent Chernobyl from being too large. Permalink 2020-08-02 18:13:10

@nntaleb Systemic = 1 block. Nuclear is in a diff category (non subexponential) Permalink 2020-08-02 16:57:52

@nntaleb In Principia Politica, there is a rule: No institution without an expiration date. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:45:37

@nntaleb Voshart you imbecile this is how you get coloring, by comparison. An confirmed by genetics: Lybians looked no different from other Mediterraneans. You are an imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:42:59

@nntaleb He seems clueless about genetics. He is just a photographer using cultural notions. Many fail to get that Southern Mediterraneans are Western Eurasians (the Europe/Africa distinction is not accurate). Permalink 2020-08-02 15:39:28

@nntaleb Voshart, are you a geneticist? Permalink 2020-08-02 15:38:04

@nntaleb Went away recently Permalink 2020-08-02 13:36:59

@nntaleb Aspetta mi, vengo subito prima che la lasagna si raffreddi Permalink 2020-08-02 13:32:06

@nntaleb I will make it very simple for you: I am picking what method I like not the one you like and you can go fuck off. Simple enough? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:28:29

@nntaleb Dove? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:20:27

@nntaleb I am not saying NUCLEAR is not dangerous. It is in a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:35

@nntaleb I am not saying it is not dangerous. Just a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:05

@nntaleb NUCLEAR I NEVER said that nuclear energy was safe. I said that it does not fall under the Precautionary Principle as there is ~no systemic risk. Nuclear accidents are additive not multiplicative (unlike GMOs & viruses). The risk (for small reactors) remains local not systemic. Permalink 2020-08-02 11:27:10

@nntaleb Then why education? Now shd I get pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:40:26

@nntaleb Hi there Where did you get it from? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:28:24

@nntaleb Learning to cook from fresh dough. Mystery: Why did Sicily discontinue growing sumac? Permalink 2020-08-01 21:09:43

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff and find yourself a hobby with “utility” before you lecture us? Permalink 2020-08-01 20:28:39

@nntaleb My shoulder bans me from deadlifting… Permalink 2020-08-01 19:16:26

@nntaleb Thanks! What’s best of the 4 options? Pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:15:56

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-01 19:12:46

@nntaleb Can you do these rooms in business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:04:54

@nntaleb Charlie can students spontaneously create rooms? Permalink 2020-08-01 14:15:45

@nntaleb Mistake. This is NOT the inquisition. There were trials and sentences were delivered by a (lay) court. This is more like the period of terror during the French Revolution. Soon education will be ONLY delivered by special apolitical institutions like coding camps. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:51:02

@nntaleb We don’t care about costs. We need to be able to create breakout rooms. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:29:14

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-08-01 11:22:23

@nntaleb 80-100 Permalink 2020-08-01 11:20:05

@nntaleb I blame the NYT first. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:19:00

@nntaleb Please do not involve geopolitics, China-US or some conspiracy in a software discussion. The question is precise Zoom for Business of for Education. Do not compare to other methods. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:15:39

@nntaleb This is the Inquisition Permalink 2020-08-01 11:10:51

@nntaleb But a university affiliation is becoming a liability. All downside, no upside. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:08:22

@nntaleb Friends, for #RWRI 14, do you prefer Zoom for Business or Zoom for Education? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-01 10:45:33

@nntaleb No comment for now. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:28:39

@nntaleb That’s another matter. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:24:45

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-01 02:18:08

@nntaleb Without verification… Anyone getting anywhere close to a US university is a moron. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:14:31

@nntaleb Ovadiah Permalink 2020-07-31 18:21:00

@nntaleb Hi Scott You are missing the CENTRAL point: 1) is fragile what does not like volatility everything concave is fragile And reverse: antifragile = convex between a and b. Permalink 2020-07-31 15:42:14

@nntaleb 5) METASTATIC BUREAUCRACIES If you want an illustration, here is one. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:55:15

@nntaleb 4) CREDENTIALIZATION And note how Tedros mentions Harvard to credentialize Sunstein, which wipes out his defects and ignorance of probability. Repeat after me: Delenda WHO est. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:11:30

@nntaleb Nassim, he is a professor in a business school. Intellectual fraud is for them business as usual. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:01:04

@nntaleb 3) The Collection of bureaucrats *who meet* for a living and failed to get the risks of the pandemic early on when WE warned, costs us TRILLIONS. Now what do they do? They ADD more bureaucrats like that fraud Sunstein. Institutions learn via bankruptcy. WHO must be DEFUNDED. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:49:22

@nntaleb 2) Do not forget that @CassSunstein made it irrational to worry about the risks of the pandemic in February! WHO must be closed. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:17:56

@nntaleb FRAUD!!!!! If there is a reason to shut down the WHO, here it is. Cass Sunstein is the poster child of pseudo-empiricism. He failed to get pandemics early on and missed on the difference between additive & multiplicative risks. FRAUD! Permalink 2020-07-31 13:15:18

@nntaleb No to the Bisri Dam project. It is economically a scam, and environmentally a DISASTER. Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-07-31 12:52:38

@nntaleb You can return it to them and order here Permalink 2020-07-31 12:01:14

@nntaleb Can you return it and reorder from this? Permalink 2020-07-31 12:00:50

@nntaleb Where did you get yours? Permalink 2020-07-31 11:59:22

@nntaleb Here Permalink 2020-07-31 11:50:54

@nntaleb Yes, I was wondering. My SP02 is 98 when active, 94 when inactive and I thought there was a problem but realized there was none as the problem is the other way around. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:32:05

@nntaleb Hi, Who did you buy it from? We stopped the Book Depository. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:29:02

@nntaleb Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-07-31 11:23:40

@nntaleb Levantine ethics… Permalink 2020-07-30 23:01:08

@nntaleb Fucking moron what does my argument have anything to do with how conservatives behave? Permalink 2020-07-30 21:47:26

@nntaleb On citation rings Permalink 2020-07-30 21:31:44

@nntaleb Yes, I am a staunch advocate of masks (even when it was unpopular). But anyone gloating on the web about the death of Herman Cain is: + shabby + unprincipled + sordid + despicable De mortuis nihil nisi bonum Permalink 2020-07-30 19:53:21

@nntaleb Time to make this a nontechnical chapter in the new book, Vol2 of the Technical Incerto. How you will go bust on a favorable bet. Or why among other things @R_Thaler is a fraud. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp) Permalink 2020-07-30 19:39:10

@nntaleb Interesting warning signs of Alzheimer: He stopped playing bridge ~15 years before he was diagnosed with Alzheimer. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:56:58

@nntaleb The point is that I show in my book evidence that economics is just a citation ring. “Prestige” is just a scam. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:37:23

@nntaleb The idea is: Get data. Derive kernel distribution at bandwidth 1 Get MI[1] Derive kernel dist at finer bandwidth Get M[2] You see convergence as gains are smaller and smaller except for \infty Permalink 2020-07-30 17:15:11

@nntaleb No, there is small effect, so long as you do not use points but distributions. You need perfect relationship = infinity. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:07:05

@nntaleb The difference between continuous (differential) entropy and discrete does not extend to MI. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:49:54

@nntaleb This is an imbecilic interpretation. Sorry I block for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:45:38

@nntaleb Something everybody knows Permalink 2020-07-30 16:10:49

@nntaleb The idea is “is it more useful than temperature”? Permalink 2020-07-30 15:53:22

@nntaleb You’ll never grasp voting patterns & political positions of millennials unless you recognize that a new graduate in about anything theoretical (Bachelor, Master even PhD) earns less than a slightly trained plumber, truck driver, or a carpenter. Reflect & see why Univ. going bust. Permalink 2020-07-30 14:00:49

@nntaleb Many other approaches. Thanks, friends. Permalink 2020-07-30 13:44:54

@nntaleb True Permalink 2020-07-30 12:38:16

@nntaleb He was Levantine. Greek Orthodox. Permalink 2020-07-30 12:18:27

@nntaleb One approach Permalink 2020-07-30 12:09:57

@nntaleb This plus coffee helps you to wake up. [Reminder: non-math related cute comment = block] Permalink 2020-07-30 11:53:13

@nntaleb Genetics show the mummies were Levantine Permalink 2020-07-30 11:04:26

@nntaleb Can detect disease not health Permalink 2020-07-30 10:32:51

@nntaleb FACT DU JOUR Omar Sharif (born Michel Dimitri Shalhoub), an actor with brains: + Elite bridge player + Fluent >5 languages + OK in Greek (like many Alexandrians) + Degree in mathematics + Did not socialize w/actors (except. romance w/actresses) Permalink 2020-07-30 10:31:30

@nntaleb So far I haven’t called anyone a fraud who didn’t turn out to be a fraud. Permalink 2020-07-30 10:10:53

@nntaleb Many people, including some doctors, don’t seem to get what a filter means. Permalink 2020-07-30 02:13:35

@nntaleb Did anyone think SPO2 as instant (5 seconds) filter for Covid-19? Isn’t there more signal than with temperature? Permalink 2020-07-30 00:46:39

@nntaleb The debate with John Ioannidis On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables, with @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Latest version Permalink 2020-07-29 22:08:33

@nntaleb I revise the book every time you read it. Permalink 2020-07-29 21:42:57

@nntaleb ? no idea. Permalink 2020-07-29 20:22:39

@nntaleb Was looking for your address to mail you the book. Permalink 2020-07-29 18:52:20

@nntaleb Pour commence, Argth la Arg tangente hyperbolic, la reciproque de la tanh n’est pas ½ Log… Permalink 2020-07-29 15:22:01

@nntaleb Cet apres-midi. Permalink 2020-07-29 15:12:09

@nntaleb ECONTALK with @EconTalker via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-29 15:08:19

@nntaleb Imbecilic remark. What does democracy have to do with your own house? Democracy is about voter participation not letting people troll your private feed. Permalink 2020-07-29 14:22:04

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-29 12:59:52

@nntaleb You need to de-discretize your calcs. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:49:24

@nntaleb More “complicated” in statistical domains. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:29:01

@nntaleb And >2 m people visiting and commuting daily Permalink 2020-07-29 12:06:21

@nntaleb For every person you block, you get 10 new followers. Why? Because the quality of your thread improves markedly; comments are worth reading. Protect your thread. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:43:45

@nntaleb In cities, indeed. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:34:38

@nntaleb Διόρθωση: Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο της *ελληνικής γλώσσας* στο Zoom (Current level: Koiné) Σας ευχαριστώ όλους Permalink 2020-07-29 00:13:37

@nntaleb DM please. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-29 00:04:54

@nntaleb Could be 2 separate problems. The old must not pass on charges… Permalink 2020-07-28 22:28:42

@nntaleb Great Summary Permalink 2020-07-28 22:04:09

@nntaleb For a citation, I had to get a copy of @PTetlock’s (🐁”Phil the rat”) *Superforecasting* & it is worse than I thought, from his work. [Co-author is a shill/lobbyist paid by large corporations to play down their “risk”] It has major, major mistakes & flaws. What to do? Permalink 2020-07-28 21:21:25

@nntaleb I peer review ALL my work one way or another. Permalink 2020-07-28 21:11:34

@nntaleb Additive & multiplicative Risks should never be compared to one another. Multiplicative => fat tails. We have limited the precautionary principle ONLY to multiplicative risks: + Pandemics (only 72 in history) + Genetic modifications spread in nature Permalink 2020-07-28 21:09:00

@nntaleb The way it works: readers read what a reliable friend recommends, etc. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:32:49

@nntaleb Hi there Can you return it back to them? Further instructions to follow. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:16:34

@nntaleb My experience since “Skin in The Game” is to leave it to social media: genuine readers commenting for potential genuine readers. No more critics who filter & decide what *lesser* readers should like or avoid. My books are not sent to the media & “intellectuals”. F*** them. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:58:41

@nntaleb Mush me2lé! Mshwé! W iza me2lé bzeit zeitun msh mazolla (bi fakkru atyab bil mazolla) Permalink 2020-07-28 19:45:06

@nntaleb I block for sophistry. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:25:42

@nntaleb Shipping next week. But if in a rush, cancel and get this immediately. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:02:52

@nntaleb Plugged out (injury) so just low weights. Permalink 2020-07-28 18:41:18

@nntaleb On it Permalink 2020-07-28 18:36:36

@nntaleb Once in a while, the reverse helps. Permalink 2020-07-28 17:47:14

@nntaleb How strong are both of you now? Permalink 2020-07-28 16:45:36

@nntaleb I tried 5 sets of 10, doing math btw sets. Permalink 2020-07-28 16:21:56

@nntaleb Takes a week to know the benefits Permalink 2020-07-28 15:34:21

@nntaleb Separate day Permalink 2020-07-28 15:33:12

@nntaleb Also 5 sets of 10 presses Permalink 2020-07-28 15:28:43

@nntaleb Did you try the 5 sets of 10 deadlifts? Permalink 2020-07-28 15:24:31

@nntaleb Necessary Permalink 2020-07-28 14:21:16

@nntaleb My problem with him. Permalink 2020-07-28 12:18:41

@nntaleb This was promoted in my feed. These ideas that are supposed to help your life destroy it. If a book can be summarized it’s not a book; if you get something in 15 minutes it is not worth getting. Permalink 2020-07-28 11:54:26

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Where? Permalink 2020-07-28 11:44:27

@nntaleb of ours Permalink 2020-07-28 03:02:05

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Not at all. The argument is about convexity. Permalink 2020-07-28 02:00:55

@nntaleb Haha Campaign started in March. Permalink 2020-07-28 01:46:08

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, being “right” means agreeing with you? Permalink 2020-07-27 23:49:26

@nntaleb You are clueless. Permalink 2020-07-27 23:41:43

@nntaleb Attitude? What “attitude”? Permalink 2020-07-27 20:39:36

@nntaleb Will restock up next week or but meanwhile try @zachobront’s link. Permalink 2020-07-27 20:26:38

@nntaleb OK, émtin? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:59:54

@nntaleb Leish ma bte3zemné ana? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:54:55

@nntaleb A reminder from PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-27 19:09:08

@nntaleb Your statement is MORONIC. As you get more information & granularity you target your measures tfor costs and efficacy Permalink 2020-07-27 18:37:52

@nntaleb I wonder why the cancel culture does not go after the chain of retractions instead of innocent idiots like @sapinker Permalink 2020-07-27 18:08:09

@nntaleb “National IQ” is practically an academic fraud. But the fact it went for so long is quite shocking. Permalink 2020-07-27 18:01:20

@nntaleb @ndehouche Permalink 2020-07-27 17:53:16

@nntaleb Squares Permalink 2020-07-27 17:21:25

@nntaleb Reread our paper. Explained there. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:58:28

@nntaleb We have answered that with our degree of fattailedness of certain class of events >>> all others, hence it is not frivilous and generalized worry. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:52:25

@nntaleb I block idiot. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:41:29

@nntaleb NOTHING to do with Regime switching. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:20:21

@nntaleb Was it Amazon or Scribe? Permalink 2020-07-27 14:19:20

@nntaleb I blocked him. I block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-27 13:09:58

@nntaleb It is not the same problem and this is not a highshool problem. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:43:40

@nntaleb Assuming it is an error… Thanks! will investigate. I am always worried when no errors are revealed. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:21:01

@nntaleb The distribution is Uniform below 1. Very very strange. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:16:28

@nntaleb The distribution is uniform below 1 ! Permalink 2020-07-27 12:15:37

@nntaleb Great counterintuitive result in probability. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:10:50

@nntaleb The article is for scientists not for politically driven imbeciles like you. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:13:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-27 02:06:15

@nntaleb Cancel and use our link. Ships immediately. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:04:47

@nntaleb And it feels different: you pull from the nape of the neck Permalink 2020-07-27 02:01:04

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-27 01:59:20

@nntaleb É. Koyné ba3ref shwayy. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:19:36

@nntaleb Here it is more, as it is 90% of the 10 max Permalink 2020-07-27 01:18:04

@nntaleb Grazie. Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:11:40

@nntaleb Also, for variery, tried 10 reps deadlift, 5 times today, and the same with presses yesterday. Feels great, like a sprint. Watched elevated hearbeat and saw it crash. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:08:19

@nntaleb That’s the work equivalent of intermittent fasting. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:05:18

@nntaleb No comparison. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:03:45

@nntaleb Much simpler to cut calories. I reach ketosis eating pasta when I do OMAD. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:02:34

@nntaleb Haven’t practiced in 40 years! Permalink 2020-07-26 21:53:21

@nntaleb Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:51:44

@nntaleb Babbler, not speaker. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:49:50

@nntaleb Αγαπητοί φίλοι και φίλες, Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο στο Zoom Permalink 2020-07-26 21:45:10

@nntaleb Link? Permalink 2020-07-26 21:19:54

@nntaleb He never understood convexity. But cities are Lindy by virtue of location. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:17:40

@nntaleb Traders Permalink 2020-07-26 21:15:09

@nntaleb Cities when not monstrously large. Size is bad. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:49:29

@nntaleb In French, same thing. “Valeurs propres”. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:44:20

@nntaleb CITIES ARE FRAGILE Flaneured around NYC for a day. I spent 2/3 of my life in the area. Saaaaaaaad. Idiots claiming cities “more efficient” don’t realize the concavity/fragility to shocks. See #Antifragile: Rome went from 2.2M to few 100K & took >1500 years to come back. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:06:55

@nntaleb The conductor of the USJ (Jesuit Univ.) chorus in Beirut is a Lebanese woman (I assume Muslim from her name). Permalink 2020-07-26 19:30:44

@nntaleb The rarest (and most valuable) thing on this planet: a clear mind. Permalink 2020-07-26 16:59:15

@nntaleb After a lull, research is undergoing a back-migration to the land of grape leaves, thyme, and olive oil: the Republics of the Eastern Mediterranean. Thanks @polemitis for these ambitious projects; more to come. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:28:03

@nntaleb False negatives are a function of contageousness. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:18:39

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-26 14:03:50

@nntaleb Another misunderstood convexity: frequent testing beats precision. A solution is STARING at us. “Evidence based” idiots can’t easily get it because, as with MASKS, they can’t understand cheap alternatives. Permalink 2020-07-26 12:01:04

@nntaleb Cristo in Italiano e Francese (Montecristo, Monte Cristo) Permalink 2020-07-26 10:37:25

@nntaleb Fi PDF? Permalink 2020-07-25 20:31:05

@nntaleb My friend, not the squid ink sauce. Colored pasta. Permalink 2020-07-25 19:03:46

@nntaleb COVID: A central ethical point: intergenerational liability. Like many central points, goes to the footnote. Permalink 2020-07-25 15:38:11

@nntaleb I avoided mentioning Shiism because it is not clear to me. But for Alawis, it is. Permalink 2020-07-25 14:54:30

@nntaleb Imbecile White != Nordic Permalink 2020-07-25 14:41:41

@nntaleb A gracious and very scientific debate with Ioannidis et al., @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo We add: 1- How individual risks do not map to collective risks. 2- The False Dichotomy economy/disease mitigation. For comments (submitting today) Permalink 2020-07-25 12:14:08

@nntaleb 2) Some religions allow “Taqiyya”, i.e. concealing one’s creed or modifying it to the outside: Gnostic religions, Alevis, Alawis, Druze. Never Sunni Islam or Greek Orthodoxy. Religious history becomes muddled. Early East-Med Christians would rather die than deny their religion. Permalink 2020-07-25 11:44:32

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-07-25 11:38:36

@nntaleb No. DNA has not changed. Permalink 2020-07-25 10:59:20

@nntaleb Was invited to debate him. Permalink 2020-07-25 01:07:30

@nntaleb Taqiyya! Permalink 2020-07-24 22:53:31

@nntaleb The Marranos were nonChristians who upon the inquisition faked Christianity to aboid persecution. Academic Marranos fake it to avoid being cancelled. Some SJW Marranos will secretly vote Trump. Permalink 2020-07-24 22:47:10

@nntaleb Wrong, it is linear Permalink 2020-07-24 21:47:28

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 20:10:08

@nntaleb Yes, it looks much more elegant in CDF Permalink 2020-07-24 19:37:00

@nntaleb We are debating Ioannidis, thanks to @pierrepinson and @spyrosmakrid Our final answer to him was just completed, to post soon. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:34:53

@nntaleb Not the same thing. I was looking for the density, not the CDF. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:29:14

@nntaleb They should cut the “arabic”, to TUnision, Algerian, etc. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:26:28

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-07-24 17:19:59

@nntaleb Yes, sums of Beta distributed B[1/n,1], with a trick. for n=2, pi/4, verifying the general formula. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:16:53

@nntaleb @PZalloua and I will join the U. (soon). We will force them to change the titles: The Prince in Italian, The Republic in Greek, all in the ORIGINAL language. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:08:36

@nntaleb Right I misread X instead of X^n. It is one transformation before. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:03:18

@nntaleb CORRECTION: S^n-1 in numerator Permalink 2020-07-24 13:43:15

@nntaleb Application Permalink 2020-07-24 13:42:35

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 13:39:33

@nntaleb Lyom! Min jéyé? Permalink 2020-07-24 13:13:58

@nntaleb Yes, imbeciles. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:54:20

@nntaleb Voila. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:53:14

@nntaleb INEQUALITY DU JOUR This one is easy enough for morning coffee. Helps start the weekend. [Non-math commentators, please do not pollute the thread] Permalink 2020-07-24 12:15:18

@nntaleb His wife is native Syrian speaking from Turkey. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:28:59

@nntaleb Doesn’t look Lebanese at all. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:15:48

@nntaleb It was never inside the article Permalink 2020-07-23 22:35:48

@nntaleb OK Permalink 2020-07-23 22:28:40

@nntaleb I can put you there. Give me a picture. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:27:26

@nntaleb A Dutcgg photographer clueless about population genetics. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:20:21

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-23 22:17:31

@nntaleb He was Med that’s not Middle Eastern Permalink 2020-07-23 22:16:10

@nntaleb Insufferable… with some… Permalink 2020-07-23 21:47:29

@nntaleb Completamente Permalink 2020-07-23 16:04:50

@nntaleb Which author? Permalink 2020-07-23 11:56:46

@nntaleb And remember the PDF is Free… Permalink 2020-07-23 01:38:29

@nntaleb Unwavering in friendship, unwavery in enmity. Permalink 2020-07-23 01:36:00

@nntaleb Struck a deal Permalink 2020-07-22 16:12:18

@nntaleb That people who asked your type of question should NOT read the book. Permalink 2020-07-22 16:01:13

@nntaleb I was irked at the framing by the NYT Permalink 2020-07-22 15:54:08

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping [Next 2 weeks]. And remember the PDF is Free Permalink 2020-07-22 15:53:09

@nntaleb Yes, the outcome & her end “position” is not the question. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:48:15

@nntaleb Actually worse: he was bad to OLD slaves. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:23:05

@nntaleb “Synchronous belief” Permalink 2020-07-22 14:20:40

@nntaleb I like “Mediterranean Studies” or Ancient World Studies since the pillars were Babylon + Egypt Permalink 2020-07-22 14:03:33

@nntaleb Excellent. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:56:20

@nntaleb There is another one, but yours is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:35:47

@nntaleb I saw a commentary on Deuteronomy. There is another one by Rashi but still deciphering. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:24:31

@nntaleb No, imbecile. She was bigottering IN THE article, even if she did not cancel him. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:18:29

@nntaleb 4) Midrash Sefre. Rabbi Yossi HaGalili: אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:14:51

@nntaleb אמר רבי יוסי הגלילי, וכי תעלה על דעתך, שאדם הולך אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:08:44

@nntaleb There is something YOU are not getting, aside from your defective anachronistic reasoning: the NYT DOES NOT publish stuff outside very very narrow parameters (I have 5 Op-Eds there). Permalink 2020-07-22 12:41:17

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:37:20

@nntaleb Thanks but when did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:11:21

@nntaleb They filter Op-Eds, do refuse mine systematically. I published 5 Op-Eds there in the past when the opinion was lined up to theirs. My point isn’t the opinion but the very idea of having to debate canceling a past figure. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:53:53

@nntaleb 3) The Wahabis destroyed ancient ruins in Saudi Arabia (including Islamic ones) to “prevent” idolatry. Soon we will be bulldozing ruins built by slaves (Great Pyramid/Coliseum), then structures built by labor w/o medical benefits, then those by nonvegetarian architects. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:38:10

@nntaleb (Yes I know the NYT ends up “opposed” to the idea of “cancelling Aristotle”, but the mere fact that they suggest the possibility …) Permalink 2020-07-22 11:22:31

@nntaleb 2/ By retrospective bigotteering, they will end up canceling ALL their ancestors, 99.9% of the contents of libraries and any institution older than 5 years will eventually end up canceling itself. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:17:01

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:09:01

@nntaleb Any reference? Permalink 2020-07-22 11:06:37

@nntaleb The NYT suggests cancelling Aristotle. This is retrospective bigotteering; it implies moral values DO NOT evolve. People need to be judged with respect to the morals OF THEIR OWN TIME. (But we can be harsh w/Napoleon who reinstated slavery.) Permalink 2020-07-22 10:53:05

@nntaleb Bingo, Nassim. Saudi/Gulf people despise Levantines and Maghrebis, consider them “impure”. Permalink 2020-07-22 10:36:24

@nntaleb OK same ting Permalink 2020-07-22 00:58:07

@nntaleb Squid ink. A lot of squid ink. Permalink 2020-07-22 00:22:47

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-21 23:58:43

@nntaleb Disagree. CI says roughly you cannot build a function to project over n steps without n-1, and n-1 without n-2. Non analytic, no derivatives, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 23:32:20

@nntaleb TeXpad Permalink 2020-07-21 23:06:26

@nntaleb Alla yer7ama. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:33:18

@nntaleb Tell them Nice try. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:06:58

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi might manage to escape justice for a while, but… where is he going to go? Nice to see one’s villains in a cage, from which they can’t get out. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:30:05

@nntaleb Something tells me that the risk is dose-related, so fewer deaths in the summer, mistakenly attributed to the unavoidable mutation. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:01:20

@nntaleb No cream. Just foam from the beans. Permalink 2020-07-21 19:19:40

@nntaleb The olive smell is intentional. This is the first probability book ever sold in Med grocery stores and luxury olive oil stores. Permalink 2020-07-21 18:46:55

@nntaleb You have the knack of posting videos of me with 20 kg more. Permalink 2020-07-21 17:21:07

@nntaleb Don’t worry if the Lebanese judiciary is frozen. The FT is on the job. This is today. Not a good day to be #RiadPonzi via @financialtimes Permalink 2020-07-21 16:54:51

@nntaleb It is all starting now for Lebanese Central Bank Governor #RiadPonzi; we had to wait 10 m after I exposed him at USJ. He tried (& failed) to smear me (but hurt some of my friends) Being #vindictive, I manifest my elation watching the predicted fall of a villain & personal enemy. Permalink 2020-07-21 16:44:19

@nntaleb I don’t think so. Here is the PDF Permalink 2020-07-21 16:04:54

@nntaleb NY Permalink 2020-07-21 16:01:53

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-21 14:58:17

@nntaleb We have a note on country IQ to write. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:53:37

@nntaleb THINGS I LEARNED IN 2020 @rorysutherland told me that working outside, in a garden or in a park doesn’t feel like work. So long as it is outside. Works! Trying it for stuff that is *work* & requires colossal effort: s.a. reading emails from NJ, comments from referees, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:37:23

@nntaleb We knew “nudge” (Thaler and Sunstein) relies on a buch of severe errors in probability. It is actually worse: vastly non-empirical claims. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:04:21

@nntaleb Must be Lebanese, Tiyan is Semitic (Tyan = bird in Lebanese, Tuyyoyo = Arab in Syriac) and not found in French. Plus look at the picture Permalink 2020-07-21 12:56:07

@nntaleb I block imbeciles. Sorry. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:27:28

@nntaleb The same people who worry about “costs” of mitigating the pandemic spend trillions on weaponry “for insurance”. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:15:20

@nntaleb Not segregated in the modern sense. Town vs country, educated vs uneducated. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:09:09

@nntaleb Same tools same coffee grind. Never forget cold water after every sip, the East-Med way. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:05:47

@nntaleb @ndehouche can give you lists, St Augustine being the most known Permalink 2020-07-21 11:31:40

@nntaleb How much $$do they charge? Permalink 2020-07-21 11:03:20

@nntaleb How much is Amz UK? Could be OK Permalink 2020-07-21 10:57:49

@nntaleb Indeed the only podcasts I do is with @EconTalker as, over time, I learned refined economic reasoning from him & developed arguments over a 13 y conversation. Permalink 2020-07-21 10:53:56

@nntaleb Vivi in italia? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:07:54

@nntaleb In 2 or 3 days there will be a link to ship to Europe at minimal additional cost. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:05:48

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:04:54

@nntaleb Grazie. Impari qualcosa ogni giorno. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:02:53

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:57:48

@nntaleb Which is what I asked @Normonic, no? Or is it different when it is not a price, where you use the plural? In Fr it is “combien” for both Permalink 2020-07-21 00:56:37

@nntaleb In a store how you say “how much”? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:50:54

@nntaleb When you ask for a price, you say “quanto” or “quanti”? Curious Permalink 2020-07-21 00:32:52

@nntaleb You are debating someone I’ve blocked for serious defects in thinking. So keep that in mind when you get spurious arguments about what is or what is not “native”. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:29:33

@nntaleb You mean Central Med. Sicily = Central Med Permalink 2020-07-21 00:22:58

@nntaleb Quanto? 35? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:18:46

@nntaleb That’s the narrative used against Palestinians and used by the French to keep Algeria. Permalink 2020-07-20 22:51:32

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-20 21:38:58

@nntaleb We had 6x capacity, 2 y waiting list. Permalink 2020-07-20 21:22:27

@nntaleb 3indak nbid w Nero di Sepia. Shu baddo l wa7ad gheir shi? Permalink 2020-07-20 20:47:30

@nntaleb 3inna RWRI Permalink 2020-07-20 20:44:06

@nntaleb Mush kll l wa2t blebnén: 3 shor bil sené Permalink 2020-07-20 20:36:05

@nntaleb Fuck, no. The Levant only 2. Different culture/origins/history. Permalink 2020-07-20 20:03:46

@nntaleb WTF do you mean “finally”? Permalink 2020-07-20 19:49:57

@nntaleb If the thing is linear y1=a x, y2=b x, it is the integral of the absolute difference Abs[(b-a) x]. If same sign, =(b-a)(x2^2-x1^2)/2, otherwise pick {x1,x2,x3} and use absolute. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:46:59

@nntaleb False dichotomy: it is an error to ignore that the pandemic itself has economic costs and make a trade-off between health and economics. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:26:50

@nntaleb OK OK libya Permalink 2020-07-20 18:31:03

@nntaleb Lybia and Tunisia had Arabic J1e coming in noncoastal areas because nomads could handle the conditions, similar to Arabis. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:29:21

@nntaleb Most in the North did until the 1600s speak a version of it. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:27:41

@nntaleb Baddna zoom @Decafquest Permalink 2020-07-20 18:26:11

@nntaleb Straw man? leb dialect is treated as a “lahja” and descendant of Dus7a Permalink 2020-07-20 18:20:23

@nntaleb Easier to implement. Lebanese and Western Syrian. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:19:20

@nntaleb Konfirmed. Only Tunisia has Peninsular gene flow. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:17:39

@nntaleb heik 3am bi sir Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:33

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:02

@nntaleb Ktir burokratiyyé honik. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:41:58

@nntaleb Hi Not recommended. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:40:21

@nntaleb Some historical facts: Algerians (particularly in coastal cities) spoke Latin for CENTURIES before the French learned it & bastardized it into what is now their language. Make the #SouthMed great again! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:39:04

@nntaleb Evidence: 1 min ago Permalink 2020-07-20 16:46:49

@nntaleb Crap. Permalink 2020-07-20 16:45:29

@nntaleb There is no teleological “forward”. There is one condition: very small steps locally (with occasional large payoffs). Permalink 2020-07-20 16:05:39

@nntaleb Interestingly Rimbaud worked for a Lebanese dealer César Tiyyan Permalink 2020-07-20 14:48:03

@nntaleb The difference betw Classical Arabic and Levantine is stark here. Proves one can reach yuuuuuuuuuge linguistic prowess in Lebanese. This poetry that is never taught in school, repressed by the Arabists & the “left” that aims to destroys nonelite/local languages. @Firsou 1/n Permalink 2020-07-20 14:47:22

@nntaleb Not the point: reverse engineering produces compounding errors under dimensionality. Permalink 2020-07-20 14:20:56

@nntaleb Ana tlmizak! Permalink 2020-07-20 13:58:02

@nntaleb Below 70 Permalink 2020-07-20 13:32:16

@nntaleb My explanation why those discussing genetics of intelligence don’t understand basic multivariate statistics. Also applies to the BS claims by @sapinker. Permalink 2020-07-20 13:04:29

@nntaleb Leish hal akl khara? Mshklét l balad 2yura mtlak. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:59:40

@nntaleb Ana mush mtl Twayné W 2asir, 3ndé 3ilé2at ma3 l kll w ma3 l mashri2iyyé… bass msh ma3 l Salafiyyé wl 3urubiyyé Permalink 2020-07-20 12:51:33

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:13:54

@nntaleb Ma be2ra illa bil mashr2é (Levantine) Permalink 2020-07-20 11:45:06

@nntaleb Here is what he got confused with Permalink 2020-07-20 11:43:33

@nntaleb There is an “i” too many Permalink 2020-07-20 11:39:00

@nntaleb Ana baddé lézém lé2é jém3a 3a zaw2é bté3zmné. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:36:38

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:33:16

@nntaleb Fi byetrko, fi byeb2o, fi byejo! Ba3d ma @PZalloua 2arrar yb2a bi baladna bhal fatra lse3bé, mfakkar ana erja3, la intemé la jém3a bi Lebnén la 2awwé l ma3nawiyyét (w 3allém l tlémiz Data Science). Permalink 2020-07-20 11:29:26

@nntaleb Salibi was a fraud, I block people who promote frauds. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:02:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-20 11:00:54

@nntaleb In old Arabic, Ajami عجمي meant Persian or foreigner, as there was an expression: “al 3rbu wal 3ajamu”. Seemingly same in Osmali. Permalink 2020-07-20 00:22:20

@nntaleb It seems to me from what little Osmali I can make out, that Acemoglu is “son of the Persian”, Acemi+Oglu Permalink 2020-07-20 00:02:23

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-19 23:09:39

@nntaleb Yes in text explain that the collective is AF at the expense of individual restaurants. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:08:06

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 23:04:12

@nntaleb Never thought that. Restaurants have ALWAYS been fragile. The quality benefits from bankruptcies. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:03:44

@nntaleb I live there 3 mo/year … Permalink 2020-07-19 22:55:58

@nntaleb 2eltello Permalink 2020-07-19 22:40:37

@nntaleb Heik 2elello la 7sein mbére7. Permalink 2020-07-19 22:30:03

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order? Permalink 2020-07-19 21:01:42

@nntaleb @PZalloua is writing one. A real one Permalink 2020-07-19 18:46:41

@nntaleb He knows Classical Arabic but his native language is Levantine, 75% of a language away from Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-19 18:45:24

@nntaleb nitpicking: claim not claims Permalink 2020-07-19 17:21:17

@nntaleb nitpicking: speack IN French Permalink 2020-07-19 17:20:44

@nntaleb GODEL DU JOUR Someone hearing me speak french, – Ah you speak French [in French] Me [in French]: Not at all I am faking it (“je fais semblant”) – Sorry I mistakenly thought you spoke Fr Me [in French]: Everyone makes mistakes. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:15:18

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-19 17:09:25

@nntaleb Yes I blocked for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:01:30

@nntaleb The claims that I blocked Saifedean Ammous based on private communication is a lie. I blocked him on the basis of dangerously crankish and conspiratorial public feed. I block all lunatics. Gabish? Permalink 2020-07-19 16:51:29

@nntaleb Leish ya Bourashid ma btktob bil 7 mtlna la nefham bsr3a? Permalink 2020-07-19 13:19:54

@nntaleb Free PDF Permalink 2020-07-19 12:08:57

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 6 Footnotes. a) PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE The quality of hardcover books released now is so bad, as it publishers knew nobody would care about the book after 2 years. b) Few publishers are in for the 3rd wave: Penguin (UK), Knopf, etc. Why? It’s a small market! Permalink 2020-07-19 12:06:06

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 5 So, need to avoid “launches” to avoid the promiscuous 1st wave buyers. My books will not be launched/distributed, just to avoid the buyer who *buys books* rather than someone who wants the specific topic. I started my own publishing for StConsFTails. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:52:01

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 4 I am only interested in the 3rd wave (FBR, INCERTO-1, is ~20 y old); I am in a different business. I shd avoid the First Wave buyer, who doesn’t count long term. They rely on book reviewers (not time), e.g. that BSVendor @EasterbrookG for the NYT. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 3 Most Publishers make $from the First Wave, with increasingly lower quality paper that degrades w/time. Their staff isn’t even equipped for the 3rd Wave as no credits/promotions beyond the first/2nd year when the book is attributed to a specific editor Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 2 Then they move on to the next book & books go to low margin paperback & eventually die. 2nd Wave: Few books survive, only if they have #Lindy attributes, & or if some academic conversation props them up. Third Wave: One in 1,000 -10,000 makes it. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 1 First Wave: Fashion buyers, the class of people who systematically buy NEW “idea books”. The entire book industry organized to sell to them. Books must be “in the conversation”. The hardcover sales is where the $$$are made. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is what I am saying. Tribes and national statism are not the same thing. See PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-19 11:26:03

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 11:01:04

@nntaleb The dark story of the “enlightenment”. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:00:11

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-19 10:56:22

@nntaleb Just ordered. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-19 02:24:50

@nntaleb Ktir 2awiyyé Permalink 2020-07-19 00:16:01

@nntaleb Thanks Mansour! mt3addar it is, from Hydra AND, mysteriously, from an old Semitic tale about a donkey that grows heads when you cut one off. [Practically all Greek myth have a more ancient Aegyptian or Semitic counterpart] Te3dir تِعدير = antifragilty Permalink 2020-07-18 20:49:25

@nntaleb mt3addar! the right meaning. Permalink 2020-07-18 20:20:01

@nntaleb How about متلدن from تلدين, annealing? Permalink 2020-07-18 20:09:31

@nntaleb مش كافي Permalink 2020-07-18 20:07:09

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-18 20:01:59

@nntaleb 3am nt2arrab! Permalink 2020-07-18 19:58:50

@nntaleb לָֹא, יעני תחססנ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:52:22

@nntaleb In Hebrew was Anti shabir אנטי שביר Permalink 2020-07-18 19:49:41

@nntaleb robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:48:12

@nntaleb يعني اكل دعك… و تحسن Permalink 2020-07-18 19:46:36

@nntaleb منيحا هيده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:45:19

@nntaleb لئ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:44:19

@nntaleb متخبط ؟ كلمه جديده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:43:10

@nntaleb No no no Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:45

@nntaleb No no no ماكن= robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:27

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DISCUSSION Looking for a term close to Antifragile in Levantine (not necessarily Antifragile) for a translation of the article with @HsenAndil and @Zzeghedrane. It does not have to be literal Permalink 2020-07-18 19:19:12

@nntaleb Yes, you are right. This was not published… I didn’t recognize my words as I usually polish before putting in a book. Permalink 2020-07-18 18:37:01

@nntaleb I NEVER wrote this Permalink 2020-07-18 17:16:51

@nntaleb If you want. If so, pls add + ergodicity + IQ + GMO(s) + Brier Permalink 2020-07-18 17:13:48

@nntaleb The Khazar theory is but, was some BS by a political journalist. Permalink 2020-07-18 17:06:55

@nntaleb Hold off might get something better Permalink 2020-07-18 13:52:44

@nntaleb But can’t get the distinct Koura smell. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:45:01

@nntaleb I speculate that, aside from the dimensionality problem, e-books cannot produce odors, so I guess no olive oil. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:43:20

@nntaleb How much is shipping? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:37:47

@nntaleb Yes, of course, many historians are rigorous; which part of “usually” was not clear? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:35:19

@nntaleb We changed supplier. New one delivers immediately. You can cancel and reorder. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:33:50

@nntaleb “Orders” Permalink 2020-07-18 13:31:38

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:20:35

@nntaleb No, Aleppo: many look like him there. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:41:11

@nntaleb Cannot resist. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:31:40

@nntaleb 2) This is a “mamluk nobleman from Aleppo”. Explain how one could be BOTH slave and nobleman except in a structure similar to Mafia made man. Historians are usually not very bright; their classifications are absurd & they don’t have the guts or intellect to question them. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:25:48

@nntaleb Ingram the distributor is incompetent. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:13:57

@nntaleb No fucking imbecile, this is IN COMPARISON to other populations. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:12:41

@nntaleb HISTORICAL MUSING of the day: MAFIA & MAMELUKS The Mameluks were military “slaves” (oft. Chris. born) who were paradoxically the ruling class. How? Same w/MADE MEN in the Mafia. Once in you can’t get out. You are both owned by the mafia & part owner. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:10:50

@nntaleb Jaffer, block nitpickers. This has nothing to do with the gender of the predator. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:22:56

@nntaleb He is OK but no scholar. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:57

@nntaleb The biggest BS in discourse is claiming “people are self-interested and *rational*”. No. It is not so “rational” at the individual level; it is rational at the group level to wear mask under multiplicative risks because YOU are part of the multiplication. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:02

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 23:17:38

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? This is giving moral support to 000s of youth. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:03:20

@nntaleb Fuck, no. I’ve never seen an economist do real world statistics right. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:00:50

@nntaleb The precedent has begun. Detenuring is easy: close depts. Rent-seeking at the expense of middle class parents eventually has an end. Detenured professors in social science are unskilled labor outside citation rings. You can’t use an economist for gardening or moving furniture. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:45:09

@nntaleb The Indicator function gives you Pi. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:37:05

@nntaleb You represent the East Med. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:59:34

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 18:49:57

@nntaleb This is heroic. 1) Zalloua stays in Lebanon to be honorable/not a deserter. 2) Joins the univ. of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch (even better). 3) We are starting the EAST MED DATA SCIENCE CENTER. 4) Balamand is a 12 C Crusader outpost (Belmont), 6 km from Amioun. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:44:18

@nntaleb Siesta. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:16:46

@nntaleb Genetically, Meds are not made for the sun. 6000-3000 years is not enough. Their skin wrinkles. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:05:56

@nntaleb Why do I despise nitpickers? Tautology in LOGIC is a statement that is true by necessity. Do you mind if I block you? Don’t be offended. It is simple discipline: I managed in my life and in my Twitter feed to get rid of nitpickers. Permalink 2020-07-17 16:58:18

@nntaleb Fox News will some day discover that thing commonly known as tautology. #FoxNews Permalink 2020-07-17 16:10:23

@nntaleb Not always and not for everyone. Money cured my desire for luxuries. Permalink 2020-07-17 15:48:45

@nntaleb Siesta Permalink 2020-07-17 15:22:25

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-17 14:55:50

@nntaleb That fund? Permalink 2020-07-17 14:54:54

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-17 13:41:41

@nntaleb Vero Permalink 2020-07-17 13:37:44

@nntaleb @tomsmith585 Permalink 2020-07-17 13:33:05

@nntaleb I know it’s comedy. Problem is many don’t Permalink 2020-07-17 13:09:18

@nntaleb Weyn l Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-17 13:04:18

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME! Absense of sense of humor is a marker of a total inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, maxbitcoiners, Salafis, Protestant zealots, NYTcopyeditors, CancelCulturistas & others w/seriously defective intellects. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:55:45

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME thing! Absense of humor is a sign of inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, Salafis, zealots, etc. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:44:52

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people who write nonsense. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:38:45

@nntaleb Thanks to lax law enforcement in some U.S. cities these strategies might be actually used to promote mask use– a step up from social shaming. Permalink 2020-07-17 11:10:11

@nntaleb Any function of it. Permalink 2020-07-17 10:48:45

@nntaleb Why? This is both true and not racist at all since NonGaussian. Permalink 2020-07-17 01:45:50

@nntaleb And the highest title was “second teacher”, as nobody could reach the level of Aristotle. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:30:22

@nntaleb There were tonnnnnnnnns of Greek speaking people in the Khalifate (my ancestors and all educated pple in the coastal Levant). But Arabic language thinkers worshiped Aristotle but relied on “the interpreter” who wrote in Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:27:52

@nntaleb حلوة يريت استعملتها لما كتبت انتيهشاش Permalink 2020-07-16 22:12:17

@nntaleb Culinarily, America is now a Med colony. Permalink 2020-07-16 19:13:03

@nntaleb Having a lot of Twitter followers… not necessarily Permalink 2020-07-16 18:32:34

@nntaleb “Israeli style”? You mean Lebanese. Permalink 2020-07-16 18:29:43

@nntaleb You said Arabic doesn’t work Permalink 2020-07-16 18:28:53

@nntaleb As usual, they went to Alexandria … then. Athens was a relic. Permalink 2020-07-16 17:16:38

@nntaleb There is a yuuuuuuge Byzantine production repressed by Euro scholars because of Gibbons and the bad press of the enlightenment. Will find Mavroudi’s lecture. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:34:17

@nntaleb Reinvention; read reintroduction into the consciousness but since 3rd C BC Alexandria was the true Greek center. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:17:45

@nntaleb For 1800 years few Greeks discussed Athens. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:09:38

@nntaleb Which is why Hagia Sophia hurts. Greek is Hellenistic, not Classical; Nordics who reinvented a “Greek identity” w/Greek gods on coffeeshop takeout mugs never get it. Nor do Levantines brainwashed by Arab fascism. Athens is a German Disneyland-style reinvention in the early 19C. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:59:40

@nntaleb New York Suburbs. In normal times, this parking lot for commuters to NYC would be full. Sometimes all it takes is one single image to be hit with reality. I am still in disbelief. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:53:13

@nntaleb Maybe they use past record as prior Permalink 2020-07-16 13:33:27

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-16 11:37:30

@nntaleb Mabruk. Weyn? Permalink 2020-07-16 11:23:20

@nntaleb COVID is an economic stress test: the fragile is being destroyed (universities, airlines); the robust will thrive. It’s mostly an intellectual stress test; destroying fake probability: non-EVT epidemiology, naive”evidence based”(Ioannidis), BS vendors (@PTetlock🐁, Sunstein)… Permalink 2020-07-16 10:48:16

@nntaleb When Turkish was written with Arabic characters, they respected the sounds: “c” was “g”, etc. Permalink 2020-07-16 10:14:51

@nntaleb Palestinians from Galilee, particularly Christians, have the same genetics as Greeks and Southern Italians. Are Greeks “brown”? If so, is Aristotle “brown”? How did you get a theology degree being that stupid? Permalink 2020-07-16 01:21:29

@nntaleb Yes they took over and it was more like made men in the mafia: you are now a property of the mafia while being part owner. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:02:26

@nntaleb It’s going to get better. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:01:26

@nntaleb Never Beirut. It was largely migration into, unlike Tyre. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:45:21

@nntaleb Actually Med genetics! Permalink 2020-07-15 21:35:31

@nntaleb With help from Scribe Media @TuckerMax @zachobront Permalink 2020-07-15 21:22:50

@nntaleb Liguria is Med as hell Permalink 2020-07-15 21:19:27

@nntaleb No child sacrifice is fake news. They just buried dead children together. Greeks have plenty of aged persons in statues. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:15:13

@nntaleb Yes and the Jesuits messed it up with casuistry and use of equivocation. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:30:31

@nntaleb Look at the wrinkles! Permalink 2020-07-15 20:25:11

@nntaleb ALL Roman soldiers were free men, no? Same with Arabs. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:24:47

@nntaleb “Meds try to look older; more prestige…” True Trying to do a portrait for the French Incerto. Will look 24 years older and 24 lbs heavier. Why? this is not a diet/life coaching book. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:22:54

@nntaleb White lie. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:18:00

@nntaleb Lying (outside of white lies) is a sin, except when some busybody asks you something personal that’s none of their business or not relevant to the discussion. You are then morally obligated to confuse them. When journos ask me for my DoB, I always give Mandelbrot’s, 1924. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:14:41

@nntaleb Soon Permalink 2020-07-15 19:35:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-15 19:08:18

@nntaleb You can approve it is a different distributor, in stock. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:06:49

@nntaleb Actually it is in from another distributor. So you can wait for old order to be fulfilled or cancel and reorder, but for US only. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:05:40

@nntaleb Could it be Mori? Permalink 2020-07-15 18:59:22

@nntaleb Hi, when did you order? Thanks Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:33

@nntaleb I picked the MOST expensive paper I could find, full color. This is an artisanal book, where I wrote, typeset, formatted. Did the entire thing. Feels like #SoulInTheGame Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:09

@nntaleb Actually, the Naples version is a pun since “muori” is a town nearby. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:28:05

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:47

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:34

@nntaleb Soon you will see more evidence with my notes on the text. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:13:19

@nntaleb Je lis Frédéric Dard pour la langue. Pas d’académie, pas de controle. Permalink 2020-07-15 16:59:28

@nntaleb But those you can’t study for them Permalink 2020-07-15 16:47:29

@nntaleb If you must study for an exam, you will never really know the subject matter. Permalink 2020-07-15 15:49:30

@nntaleb Grant, you can get the class at TJ Max for $6 a pair! Permalink 2020-07-15 13:55:27

@nntaleb “Qui m’ont échappé”, cher compatriote grecophénicien. Permalink 2020-07-15 13:54:33