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Silver Rule, Charles Murray, Localism, LEBANON, Mariana Mazzucato, UBI, REITS, I MADE A MISTAKE, Corruption, Peterson, IQ, Stefan Molyneux, Aquavit, Swedes | Twitter

I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals.
Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev.

@TalebWisdom “Complaints don’t deliver complaints, they mostly reveal your weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:49 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hint: The Golden Rule is NOT Lindy. See Isocrates’ rule.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:26 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Tonight’s Lecktshur at @LAUNYHQ, I present the problem of the Golden rule: intrusive, vs. Silver Rule. #Localism= Silver Rule, rejection of golden rule. #Lebanon Nobody should ever force you into something “because it is good for them”. Permalink 4:17 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@Mangan150 Big Food – the largest global food corporations – and what they make. They turn cheap sugar, seed oils, and refined grains into profit. A big impetus behind the vegan push. Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Nov 2019

@thegeforum Nassim Taleb says the hedge fund industry is the correct model for investment management… “dont tell me what you recommend… tell me what you own”. Hedge fund managers eat their own cooking! This from a man not accustomed to giving compliments! Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating *why* you had to say it. Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@novak_ma Few months ago I read Fooled by Randomness by @nntaleb and deleted my stock watch app from phone. I checked my stocks just once since then. Feels good. Permalink 9:20 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb BTW, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, just a little reminder that you are an impostor, a fake scholar, a fraud.   Permalink 7:46 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When as****les call you “arrogant”, you are on the right side of ethics.   Permalink 7:45 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Just found a mistake in my paper concerning the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition (as I had the wrong description): the testing metric is always thin tailed EVEN if the underlying variable is fat tailed. Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The incoherent fellow (an ethnic Druze chieftain claiming to be socialist) is a specimen of someone who lives in the wrong century & fails to understand #localism. Pple are more interested in electricity & public services than geopolitical incantations.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@Decafquest On people who are afraid of cameras by @nntaleb: Relevant today more than ever. Permalink 3:41 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “We learn the most from fools … yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:35 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Religious Fundamentalists (including atheist fundamentalists) aren’t just usually morbidly stupid; they can be detected by the total absence of any sense of humor.   Permalink 5:42 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Localism is the new … communism Permalink 3:28 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Voila. The informal title is “ Localism, Complexity, and busting the BS by IYIs ” Please let me know if you are joining.   Permalink 1:26 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@LAUNYHQ Join @nntaleb at #LAUNYHQ 5:30-7pm Thursday evening Nov 7 for a pop-up seminar on Localism and its Application to Lebanon – space is limited, first come first serve, register here   Permalink 12:32 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please indicate in this thread if you wish to come. Limited to people involved in the Lebanese situation. This is not about #Localism in general rather its application to Lebanon. (Swiss specialists welcome to join as CH is the model for multiethnic multireligious localism)   Permalink 7:02 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb NEW VERSION Principia Politica #Localism   Permalink 4:38 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Naive universalism attracts IYIs and self-righteous psychopaths   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:45 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I will present #LOCALISM with respect to #Lebanon next Thursday at 5:30 in New York (before I leave NY for the Republic of Amioun). An application of PRINCIPIA POLITICA   Venue to be confirmed #LebanonProtest Permalink 4:35 PM – 3 Nov 2019

@levelsio “For I have a single definition of success: you look in the mirror every evening, and wonder if you disappoint the person you were at 18, right before the age when people start getting corrupted by life. Let him or her be the only judge; not your reputation” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:57 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I can understand someone defending Iran against Salafis/Saudi Arabia. Never anyone -supporting Iran’s regime in the murders of Iraqi youths -supporting Iranian interference in the #Lebanonprotest, largely by youths FED UP w/their exploitation for geopolitics. #Localism Permalink 8:48 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12   Permalink 6:43 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@financequant To all at RWRI 12, travel safely. It was a pleasure to work with you. Permalink 6:19 PM – 2 Nov 2019

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb summarizing Wolfram’s Principle of Computational Equivalence at #RWRI Any two systems that display non-trivial behavior are just as sophisticated as each other in terms of range of computation (not speed or memory) Deep implications for IQ Permalink 2:15 PM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game @tarekmilleron American Airlines flight attendants stand up to Boeing CEO on 737 MAX   Permalink 11:17 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou Sh3aybiyé at #RWRI !   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:10 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Heinonmatti Hey, @VergilDen is here! Banking system moves from right to left in the network fig –> vulnerability to targeted attacks. [Hope he talks about fighting later.] #RWRI Permalink 8:38 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON A bit of empiricism French and UK voters send their “heroes” Churchill and De Gaulle home after the war. Same with Bush the elder after the successful Persian Gulf war. War arguments & “resistance” do not register during periods of peace. #LebanonProtests #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou “It’s unnatural to prepare” I agree 100%. Never prepared for a presentation while I was being told “you need to have notes”. If you need 10 pages of notes why should anyone listen to you? #RWRI Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE LIRA I hear that the Lira is trading at ~ 1675. No worries. A 10% deval. is nothing since the Lira commands much higher int rates than USD. [A holder of LIRA would still be profitable.] Even a 50% deval. would just cover the last few years of interest r differential. Permalink 5:46 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@RubenGao Don’t f*** with the tail! Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@arisroussinos Via Facebook, Oxi Day celebration by the Greek Orthodox community of Damascus, part of the Patriarchate of Antioch, among the last surviving Greeks of Syria Permalink 2:52 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@birdxi1988 A great day at #RWRI @nntaleb mentioned the link between Kelly Criterion and entropy as well as why tail fitting is more an art than a science! Permalink 3:57 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@Heinonmatti @nntaleb continues; you can rule out Gaussian distributions by observing one outlier, which would be ~impossible under the Gaussian, but much much more common under another distribution. Another way is to rule out based on physiological / biological bounds. #RWRI Permalink 2:06 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 An explanation for fat tails from feedback loops: “Abyssus abyssum invocat” תְּהוֹם-אֶל-תְּהוֹם קוֹרֵא Permalink 8:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4/n Problem of teleology: the French Gov. started explicitly an internet (Minital) and failed, what survived is the side effect of a military application. @MazzucatoM: Given the % of GDP by government, what % of innovation came from government? Didn’t gov displace private invt? Permalink 10:06 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/n @mazzucatoM claimed that by attending Princeton high school she attended a “state school”. Scale effect: it’s a school for the residents of the commune, equivalent in its functioning to a private school. Permalink 10:01 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/n Govt bureaucrats are not boring & lacking in innovative drive because they didn’t study strategy in business schools (i.e. because of their education) as claimed by @mazzucatoM, rather boring people tend to work for government. Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 1/n Just listened on way to #RWRI the @econtalker podcast with @mazzucatoM about the government role in innovation “investor of first resort”. Will comment further after I read the book, but found many flaws in reasoning by Mazzucato: Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:25 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI   Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI entropy Permalink 7:19 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 : Robert Frey ⁦@financequant⁩ showing how the “blind watchmaker” (see book by BS vendor @richarddawkins) is improper characterization of evolution and complex systems: a watch half built is jot a watch. Permalink 6:22 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity.” Permalink 5:12 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo At #RWRI, @nntaleb, @financequant and @normonics are fighting over the best definition of entropy… I don’t see why, given that the best definition is mine : a pseudo-metric of distortion, whose interpretation varies with its generator. Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo Live from #RWRI, @normonics speaking about networks. Permalink 11:47 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@coordinatedsync #RWRI Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The way political parties and militias self destruct. They can use weapons against ISIS and Israel, never against their own constituents. They are done. #لبنان__ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 5:23 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr Skin in the game also has an intrinsic moral appeal and aesthetic value: Real virtue isn’t cheap. And it turns out skin in one’s own game is a moral minimum; more admirable is skin in other people’s games—­altruism, or what he calls “soul in the game” Permalink 5:16 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr For Taleb, skin in the game is an expression of intellectual virtue. One isn’t actually thinking well if one doesn’t have some sense of accountability for the outcomes of one’s judgments. Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@NonMeek “Take all the risk you want but don’t f**k with the tail.” -@nntaleb That’s one central idea from yesterday’s #RWRI 12 starting session. BOOM Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@visualizevalue — @nntaleb Permalink 7:02 PM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ramses XII Riad Salameh now blaming the messenger for revealing the Ponzi he orchestrated. He is implicitly using the currency as a threat. Instability is preferable to fake Ponzi stability.   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@StartSocieties Excited for @nntaleb’s next book. Politics framed as a complex adaptive system totally changes political priorities. Let’s focus less on top down solutions, and more on building political systems that enable antifragile problem solving. #localism   Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 Permalink 5:18 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 To all #RWRI folks, wish I could be with you for my 6th visit…if nothing else to ask questions born from my confusion. Have fun! @nntaleb @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @VergilDen @Jed_Trott and the rest of the gang. Permalink 4:07 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes!   Permalink 11:14 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A kind of network, but not desirable (one dimensional), but beats standard statist hierarchies. Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Beirut Madinati now writing IN LEBANESE! Congrats! #Localism #LebanonProtests   Permalink 8:11 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same in Semitic languages: Heb עבודה = work, and עבד 3bd= to be a slave.   Permalink 7:20 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. It is just to clean up my feed for a dialogue with minimum sophistry. Permalink 6:21 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb coercion Permalink 5:59 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain complexity and spontaneous order, with the “leaderless” Lebanese protests which baffles intellectuals, journos, Arabists, & other ignorant idiots looking for agency. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests   Permalink 5:58 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Mr Ewan Birney @ewanbirney, sorry but you don’t understand the “quantitative trait” at all. @StuartJRitchie is, practically, analytically, a fraud who can fool someone who doesn’t know what correlation means.   Permalink 11:23 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@rationalwalk If UBI was referred to as a negative income tax, which it actually is, and if replaces rather than is additive to welfare, it would be a hugely popular idea across the political spectrum, except among the bureaucrats who’d be out of a job. So they’ll demagogue this to death. Permalink 11:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on STATISM My problem w/”socialists” is that they are statists & intrusive, not pro-welfare. I am for a negative tax (minimum income)= to $$ spent on welfare, saving spending on bureaucrats. But they refuse because they want to DIRECT how ppple spend $ & pay cronies. Permalink 11:03 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb CEMENT IN LEBANON. As in elsewhere, construction is a mafia business. Cement Imports are banned to benefit factories in Lebanon (that employ Syrian workers). Lebanese citizens pay TWICE the price for concrete. The margins are shared by the Kleptocrats. #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 10:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ἔλεγεν δὲ αὐτοῖς ὁ Ἰησοῦς ὅτι Οὐκ ἔστιν προφήτης ἄτιμος, εἰ μὴ ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ, καὶ ἐν τοῖς συγγενέσιν καὶ ἐν τῇ οἰκίᾳ αὐτοῦ. Mark, 6 Never never try anything beyond nudging.   Permalink 10:04 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb We have so many capable people in the diaspora or ex-diaspora. Based on his track record, I propose @DrFadloKhuri as a member of the next cabinet. Or someone along such a profile.   Permalink 7:32 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@PZalloua At the demonstrations today: “Lebanese Style” Permalink 6:48 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The point is that whatever is not worthless is psychology we already know from elsewhere. The issue: bad science is worse than no science.   Permalink 6:22 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@encrier improvised signs for today’s protest Permalink 5:17 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People who were previous ashamed of writing in Lebanese feel now empowered to do so! Even Nasrallah spoke in Lebanese. From chaos you get a new order. #ComplexSystems #Localism #BottomUp #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض   Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Over time for the sake of efficiency & owing to, say, preferential attachment, networks are pulled into the center, from unifom to power laws or maybe lognormal. The one of the left collapses. Centralized systems end up collapsing after pseudostability Explained in #TheBlackSwan Permalink 7:37 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@Cernovich Who are the five wisest living people today, in any country in the world? Permalink 4:34 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The problem with historical reporting is overestimation of agency: narratives require leaders so people are fooled by journos etc. about the exact process. Same overestimation of agency as the one in #fooledbyrandomness #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 2:45 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To the left, how both Nasrallah, his enemies, & journalists think Lebanese Politics should work. To the right is how the protesters proved it works. Complex systems generatee spontaneous order. Progress lies in having NO leaders. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests Permalink 1:33 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The central aspect about the Lebanese riots is that there is no leader. #Localism   Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Actually song in Lebanese #Localism   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@normonics @nntaleb look at the traction kanye talking about localism is getting. first, the self and mind, then the family, then the community, gardens, agriculture, etc. bottom up. local first. meme is sticking. Permalink 11:31 AM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntalebbot “What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have; it is what he or she is afraid of losing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 24 Oct 2019

@ronaldchagoury Sooooo well said – I’ve never been able to put my finger on it, and this is so spot on. The resentment class who rarely have skin in the game Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Nobody seems to be getting what I am saying: The assets of the ETFs should be dropping, no? Easy/tight money affects real estate, not just ETF. Permalink 9:28 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@VergilDen And then make changes to the educational system as NNT points out in Principia Politica   Permalink 8:43 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why the REITS are still rallying? Rates are net, net higher.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:40 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Women in #Lebanon   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Don’t miss @nntaleb tonight at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium at the Bern Dibner Library (5 MetroTech Center, Brooklyn, NY).   #NYUTandonMade @nyutandon   Permalink 7:36 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@mcclay_roman This page from you is framed and on the wall of my little container home. Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I do not wish to be considered for any official position in #Lebanon, so PLEASE remove my name. I prefer to help in other ways. This is the 3rd request. #LebanonProtests Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No, pple in Lebanon & elsewhere aren’t complaining abt “inequality”. The “inequality” is a claimm by the resentment class: journalists, academics (Pikety) & other losers. They want better conditions, governance, justice, accountability & skin in the game.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@paulportesi Missed this about a month ago. Very interesting data point. @nntaleb has mentioned how using ice for injuries has no scientific foundation if I remember correctly. Align to Nature.   Permalink 11:28 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics will lecktshur at #RWRI about complexity and multiscale properties of “tings”. He has 54 minutes plus 11 Q&A. Raphael, @financequant myself, & others will heckle him (we can stand heckling).   Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) With Modi also no tie (twice). Only exception: the US Senate. They refused to let me testify without a tie, so I borrowed one. Permalink 2:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals. Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev. Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb These low-intellect Western Arabists trying to force their 1001 night identity on us don’t know that “merci” came to Lebanon via Turkish, Armenian, & Farsi. The Edward Said “collonial” is Total BS: the French spend 2 decades on a military mandate. Permalink 1:36 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb What if the army went after the people? Not many options #lebanonprotest   Permalink 12:35 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A heuristic to pick out a fraudster in #Lebanon, helpful for the selection of new ministers: 1) Wears a tie (hence empty suit), & 2) Speaks on TV in Classical Arabic (a dead Semitic language, similar to shouting in Medieval Latin in the UK Parliament). Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy: the latest format and a #Lindy text Permalink 10:49 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@shreyansh_jain1 That’s a foolish statement. The fundamental problem of food supply is food wastage. So it’s a supply chain mgt problem. It’s the other way around here. Organic farming takes more space to patch the quantity of wasted food. You desperately need lessons from @nntaleb. Permalink 9:30 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb How the Lebanese State destroyed the economy [English subtitles, including the “Gabish”]   Permalink 9:25 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@PZalloua This is how revolutions are made: Lebanese style! Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: If my enemies knew me better, they would hate me even more. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Proud of my Archbishop! Vacuum is better than what we currently have. Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb, will present “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” as part of the NYU FRE Lecture Series this Thursday at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium. This event is open to the public. #NYUTandonMade Permalink 7:37 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 9- CORRECTION I MADE A MISTAKE Trusting Hariri’s claims of balanced budget. #Lebanon   Permalink 6:50 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@ShipSystem In Norway being a village local means so much for any job even over more qualified person from next village. Have u ever lived in Norway because ur tweet is 100% true. Maybe norwegians socialist on some aspects but super localist on most aspects. Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb BernieSanderistas are trying to promote a fake idea of “Nordic Socialism”. Nordics are 1)Yuugely localists (see #Antifragile on communes); they empowered local lang [Danish, Norwegian, Swedish] & don’t call them “dialects of Nordic”. 2) Are NOT socialists [Soc. failed in 70s] Permalink 5:47 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Fuck, no.   Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is Arabic. Write to me in Lebanese. Permalink 5:06 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders, stay out of this. You’re like a quack doctor who will kill the patient. The socialist (centralized statism) you are selling is what ruined Iraq, Syria, Egypt over the past 60 y. Lebn has little to do w/”Arab” Spring. Pple are fed up w/ kleptocracy/statism/Arabism   Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard .@HillaryClinton, your foreign policy was a disaster for our country and the world. It’s time for you to acknowledge the damage you have caused and step down from your throne.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:56 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR Option traders might recognize some sort of butterfly Permalink 2:25 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@Extrachelle An excellent book deserves a good LaTex bookmark #SITG @nntaleb Permalink 10:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain it to them?   Permalink 9:49 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ducavendish “the larger the central state, the more patronage.” Fucking brilliant. Still, people just don’t get it.   Permalink 7:13 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rest in peace, David Freedman. You were the first BS buster in statistics, and trained me to it.   Permalink 7:11 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ektrit For anybody with knowledge of actual history like Taleb, #LOCALISM is how the world functioned until mid 19th century, with the implementation of nation-states in Europe. As perspective, the current global setting is just 200 years young out of 6000 years of documented history.   Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb You have a moral duty to write in the language of the population. The French parliament does not use Latin. Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I refuse to use ARABIC, an elite COERCIVE language not spoken by the population. If you want me to write in anything, I use Levantine in the Lebanese version.   Permalink 6:57 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7- SOLUTIONS It would be nice to but some kleptocrats in jail, particularly that funds are traceable. This will happen. But it is PATRONAGE that needs to go. Let me repeat, PATRONAGE! This can ONLY happen via decentralization as the larger the cental state, the more patronage. Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 6- People are angry because: a-they share the debt burden w/no benefits b-the Leb State messes up everything it touches, except security c-unlike Maluf, kleptocrats do not deliver The need for religious “harmony” allowed a multi-sect “elite” to milk the system to the bone. Permalink 6:18 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 5- (Cont some clarity about #Lebanon) Corruption doesn’t necessarily kill economic activity (Brazil’s Paulo Maluf “steals but delivers”). Except that the way the Petit Segneurons operate is to use their franchise by imposing yuuuge red tape: No electicity, no garbage collection! Permalink 6:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4- The patronage system got out of control: government contracts grabbed by cronies, in a scheme orchestrated by people in/out of government, s.a. the Grand Segneura & many less visible Petit Segneurons populating ministries. Kleptocracy is traceable& illegal, not patronage! Permalink 6:02 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3- Meanwhile the Gov is that of a federation, which is good (via healthy sectarianism) but government service is simply PATRONAGE, for each sect to get the max from the system. A healthier federation is to do it according to geography, via municipal power. Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2- Luckily the Ponzi involves only 2 parties, Leb Gov (via Ramses XIII Salameh) & the banks. Hence easy non-inflationary cancellations w/clawbacks from those who made millions are possible. In the meanwhile Gov is taxing back the banks to cover secondary deficit, very smart move. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #LEBANON, in Summary 1- Leb government got involved in a Ponzi (facilitated by Ramses XIII, Riad Salameh) that sucks up all funds from the system. People have no incentive to put $ (say inheritance from a childless maternal aunt) in a business; get >10% interest from the bank. Permalink 5:46 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same with #Lebanon driving rules: except for speed, chaos is beneficial. Speed limits are necessary because of nonlinearity. From #Antifragile Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Waiting in line is not always efficient as it can cause traffic jams. At RWRI we recommend that people overcome these arbitrarily & unempirically derived English manners & avoid waiting in line at the buffet lunch.   Permalink 4:44 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@BLebnene On @reddit:   Permalink 3:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ofer_rubin After they fail those imbeciles NEVER forget to say “this wasn’t real Socialist”, f**king utopia drug dealers. Permalink 4:14 AM – 21 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No. Very naive topdownism. Every degree of complexity reduces odds of success by 1 order of magnitude @lebaneselingui1   Permalink 10:42 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@DarkoAlexandar Cuánto de esto aplica también acá en #chile   Permalink 10:25 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Riad Salamé, let me know when we can talk. We need to discuss the Ponzi you helped organize (and what the exact numbers are). There is no way citizens should inherit such a debt burden. Given that primary deficits are ~OK, you have some explanations to do. Permalink 9:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb KLEPTOCRACY: It is important to note that corruption is NOT necessarily in the government (often composed of transient ministers) but deep in the opaque administrations. Which is why decentralization makes things salient. Permalink 8:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People in #Lebanon are figuring out spontaneous crowdd order.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:41 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM in LEBANON Permalink 7:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7ada 3am ystghll 2sset l léj2in! Hiyyé l mshklé yallé 2abado 3layon!   Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@Zzeghedrane Diaspora, this is our contribution to the uprising! Fund the people to keep going! Water, food, snacks, masks, whatever they need. $20 can give water to 60 protesters! Please share!! #LebDiasporaProtests #LebDiasporaFunds #لبنان__ينتفض   Permalink 6:20 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Question is whether “Baabda vaut bien une messe”. (Henry IV converted to Catholicism to become King of France. He didn’t have a Greek Orthodox mother.) Beyond the joke, under the LOCALISM program, the president is a mere clerc, as in Switz. Lower rank than mayor of Amioun.   Permalink 4:56 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@semperfidem2004 Another excellent argument for #Brexit. Nothing at all “shows very easily” in the EU   Permalink 3:05 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Lebanese in Boston, Tomorrow, Sunday the 20th, starting at 4 PM in front of the Boston Public Library – Copley Square Protest with us! Bring your flags and signs! Spread the word to your Lebanese in Boston metro! #LebDiasporaProtests #لبنان_يثور #لبنان_ينتفض #يا_ثوار_الارض Permalink 6:18 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rioting Lebanese style   Permalink 5:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Petition to get the ball rolling on this with @nntaleb   Permalink 5:16 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@HachemYassin Admittedly this needs a lot of work on the ground. M people became accustomed to think they are entitled to things from the state, with the famous “wayniyye l dawle” cliche. dawle is there, but it is the problem,not the solution.sadly, protestors think the state shld provide jobs Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2) The current villains (Siniora, Berri, Basil) will, over time, look much more like villains, whether justified or not. Salamé will, of course, be dragged through the mud. #Lebanon PS- I spend a week per month there but missed events because of #RWRI 12 Permalink 4:02 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb RIOTING LESSON 101; When rioters win concessions from the governement, they ask for more. #Lebanon 1/n Permalink 12:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@dzviovich Concentration of wealth is an emergent property of a complex system such as the economy.   . It is also a property of rent seeking societies. The other emergent property, social mobility, will not show up. Picketty and friends seem to ignore this… Permalink 5:41 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Only in Lebanon.   Permalink 5:38 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@jadabdala a phoenician mediterranean saturday – Lebanon – le phénix renait de ses cendres Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a … Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Friends, a lecktshur open to the public next Thursday. But it will be mathematical, so non-quants please refrain. Based on my new book, Vol 1 of the TECHNICAL INCERTO.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:42 AM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For those not used to Twitter language (or aphorisms), “it’s not” should be translated into academic discourse unburdened with space constraints as “not necessarily so”. Permalink 9:05 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb One hitch: Donaldo’s letter is closer to that of the Sultan than to the response by the Cossacks. Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Donaldo’s letter to Erdogan will be remembered in international affairs as the 2019 version of the Cossaks letter to the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed IV. Permalink 6:22 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Infrastructure is commonly held to be a good thing. It’s not. It creates winner-take-all effects in communication.   Permalink 5:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Treating George W. Bush as an authority on peace and stability is similar to relying on a drunk driver (while drunk) as the expert on road safety.   Permalink 6:27 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 I held that something as absurd as the pseudo-Nobel in economics would end self-destructing. No point fighting it: it would collapse under the weight & monstrosity of the fraud. You can’t fool people forever. 2019 did the job. Permalink 6:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Sanctions work with countries like Turkey & China that depend on the West, not with Iran/Syria after 40 years of autarchy. The mere threat made the currency collapse. Permalink 5:31 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I am impressed. The economic weapon is a much, much more effective one than the military one. We are no longer in 1936. Trump got it.   Permalink 2:28 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@normonics All over the world, you see a common theme: Decentralization is a threat to the ruling classes.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fasted way to become poor is to socialize with the rich. Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Peterson is a charlatan.   Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@yaneerbaryam Antidepressants and other psych meds are personality change operations. Medicine/psychiatry/psychology are in a primitive state and do not understand context-individual complexity. Meds should be used only as a last resort. @MichaelSagnerMD @nntaleb See   Permalink 5:16 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Well oh well… Tulsi the most searched candidate in 49/50 states yesterday. Seems like #UnusualAmericans want to know more about her.   Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This guy is a fraud.   Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Oct 2019

@NonMeek This #Offshorecomic strip was done in collaboration with & inspired by @sean_a_mcclure‘s   Thanks for your brilliant inputs, Sean! #IQ #circularity cc: @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:57 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@Prof_BearB Nice piece. Brings to mind a point that I didn’t make in my book: if I (and @aaronclauset and @nntaleb + @DrCirillo) are right about the absence of decline and @tanishafazal is right about battle deaths, we’re actually *trying* to kill a lot *more* people today than we used to.   Permalink 8:03 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@ryanckulp everything by @nntaleb. each loop = 1% absorbed   Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb M7n vs Manyaké as described by @Confusezeus You call a number, ask for Joseph: – “Jozef Khouré hon?” – Wrong number. Call again, same thing. That’s “m7n”. Call 3rd time: Hi, I am Jozef Kouré. Did anyone call for me? That’s manyaké. Permalink 6:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The most untranslatable word I know: “M7n” in Lebanese. Unlike other untranslatable expressions, you cannot even easily describe what it is. Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Be stubborn   Permalink 3:29 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@sahouraxo A short little history of war propaganda: Vietnam 1964 – Gulf of Tonkin incident Gulf War 1990 – Incubator Babies Iraq War 2003 – Imaginary WMDs Libya 2011 – Nonexistent massacres in Benghazi #Syria 2019: Video from a Kentucky military show passed off as Syrian war footage   Permalink 5:43 PM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists (unless they have mental issues, in which case they become psychologists). And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:31 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists. And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:27 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Good news: > 100,000 lawsuits. Engaging in systematic iatrogenics is becoming very unprofitable. After Monsanto, J&J, now waiting for statins, seed oil, etc.   via @WSJ Permalink 10:26 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on How the Nazis (& predecessors) created a link with (some of) the Mediterranean populations, to manufacture a common “race” with former Barbarians and a continuum of civilization. Chapoutot, thanks to recommendation by @holland_tom Permalink 9:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Voila, there don’t seem to be many other f(x). Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Math QUIZ du jour. (Please refrain from commenting outside the exact topic.) Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@newtgingrich Why is the left so afraid of Tulsi Gabbard? I don’t understand the viciousness of the atatacks on her by the NY Times and others. Permalink 2:25 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Η ελληνική καταγωγή των Ρωμιών της Συρίας που σήμερα σφαγιάζονται από τους μουσουλμάνους   Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@jun78th Scale transformation is so important a concept – so much mismatch in scale between problem and solution often. When mismatch is minimal, life flows richly. I do hope you are able to (successfully) educate a new generation on scale transformation Permalink 7:11 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The cat is out of the bag. Antifragile is no longer in my control.   Permalink 6:47 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb He got it! Hyperlinks are distracting. This is not. #Lindy!   Permalink 6:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For COMMENTS Permalink 5:49 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In the PRINCIPIA I explain that people used to welcome individuals but reject groups qua groups (cf hospitality of Arab tribes for n<5 pple, hostility otherwise). They still do but are confused about it. “Racism” is not scale-free.   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Eveentually, this Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb When you ask people what restaurant they *would* like, they answer: comfortable, not too noisy, with room & no wait. Yet they wait in line to pak in tiny rooms with yuuge noise levels & the mobility of the Tokyo subway car. Same for books. Make them dense.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The inside: unfortunately one needs to break paragraphs manually Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb OK, smaller fonts in the margins. Note it is done in LaTeX @Firsou Permalink 3:57 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally the “Tufte style” is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile Permalink 3:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@bogdanosk Οι «Ρουμ» της Συρίας και του Λιβάνου ανήκουν στο (ελληνόφωνο ως το 1897) Ελληνορθόδοξο Πατριαρχείο Αντιοχείας. Έχουν ελληνική κληρονομιά που χρονολογείται από την ίδρυση της Αντιοχείας το 323 πΧ, καταγόμενοι από αρχαίους Μακεδόνες και βυζαντινούς Ρωμιούς.   Permalink 2:30 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any type of activity or business divorced from the direct filter of skin in the game, the great majority of people know the jargon, play the part, and are intimate with the cosmetic details, but are clueless about the subject.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:17 PM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game, Brussels Permalink 10:33 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@noedelafuentemd @nntaleb @RyanHoliday #stillnessisthekey Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Food can only be Lindy. And technology (Amazon) can reduce the distance between supplier and consumer. Permalink 8:05 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Referees should have skin in the game.   Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@FedericoPistono It is a special kind of satisfaction to receive the Incerto pentalogy by @nntaleb, in glorious deluxe hardcover, bought with fuck-you-money I made starting my own businesses from scratch, taking risks. Permalink 4:52 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Here   Permalink 5:03 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy My next book is in this format.   Permalink 4:58 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Mehdi_IR_DC My own reason for not liking psychology is that its point of departure is human arrogance. To understand human mind and to fix it! Religion on the other hand starts from the point of human humility, it has via negativa. Permalink 3:50 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Arch_Revival_ Before & After Hungarians replace ugly modernist building with a new build in the Classical tradition. A beautiful city is a better city. Budapest Permalink 3:39 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Debating… Molyneux? If someone offered you to debate an animal in the zoo, you will be equally offended. Permalink 8:39 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@satyakatla Have chanced upon a #DataScientist lecturing, who has no idea about probability and stating that distribution is drifting from the assumption, hence wrong prediction. What he doesn’t get is it is wrong distribution to start with. @nntaleb succinctly mentioned this here: Permalink 7:46 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Finaly for the identity Gov. Debt = Asset you need the asset to have the same value as if determined by the real market under selection pressures. Permalink 4:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@walid970721 I just found this tweet by Ken Roth from 2018 that shows what a moron he is. Of course the majority of the refugees are going to be Sunni when they form the majority of the population. Claiming that it’s proof of ethnic cleansing is idiotic. #Syria   Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Plus or minus the usual typos. Permalink 2:16 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Asking @sapinker to talk about … tail risk?   Permalink 2:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@briteless You will never get the f*** you money* by winning arguments. (Advice to a young adult who wants to become personally free, financially independent, and freely pursue his interests). – @nntaleb   Permalink 12:31 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Quiz du Jour, Romanian Mathematical Magazine. [Flight to Brussels] Permalink 4:35 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally there is something of interest here: group IQ != average member IQ. Complex systems are about interactions. Failure of mean field. Permalink 4:25 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@stephen_wolfram Even after 35+ years the simplest cellular automata are full of new things to discover… Noticed in a livestream yesterday: rule 73 has randomness in its left- or right-of-center column, but with 3:2 white:black   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:49 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb NEVER read anything written by journalists, just look at prices! Correct: “Stocks dropped less than a Mean Deviation because of very slight order imbalances caused by a tiny minority; a small number of unidentified motivated investors adjusting their holdings.” #MinorityRule Permalink 10:27 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FINAL. Thanks everyone for the help. Permalink 5:32 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Shawarma is not from Turkish but (Eastern) Aramaic, as the Turkish itself (çevirme) originates from the Eastern Syriac Sha-warma, where there is a shift “b” to “w”. “Barma” means to rotate, just as in “gyro” and “rotisserie”. @turlevnon Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THIRD VERSION Large Kafkaian centralization units such as Whitehall, Brussels, etc. “Elite” undergraduate education Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Tis is probabilistic, so the idea is that 3-7 out of 10 items will be gone. Permalink 3:43 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@financequant The trend to relentless centralization will collapse (after much suffering). This has happened in the small with many ex-socialist countries. Consider Sweden which restored a market economy and decentralized its social programs; e.g., school vouchers.   Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@Dark_Realist   Permalink 1:49 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2nd version Permalink 1:08 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FOR COMMENTS Friends, was asked to “predict” what would happen by the end of the decade. Used Lindy. Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Why under convexity you don’t need to be a “good” forecaster. Permalink 5:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Convexity is often missed in: + finance (gamma, model error) + evolutionary biology (mean-field) cc:@yaneerbaryam (Even those who support group selection s.a. Wilson accept the non-convexity math). + forecasting (verbalistic Tetlockism) + behavioral econ (failure of mean-field)   Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The market is like a large movie theater with a small door. And the best way to detect a sucker is to see if his focus is on the size of the theater rather than that of the door.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@davidgraeber remember any Turkish invasion of Rojava will be a NATO invasion of Rojava. Any genocide they carry out will be NATO genocide   Permalink 2:55 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@Kitsune808 Echos of Taleb multiplying… @nntaleb   Permalink 12:53 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@ektrit There is study of Theology/Church History by studying the Church Fathers and There is study of Theology/Church History by understanding that Church Fathers were in the 0.1% of Educated Elite. So, all theological conflict was among the top 0.1%. Night and Day approach. Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Oct 2019

@DellAnnaLuca THE DYNAMICS OF THE ANTIFRAGILE (thread) Where does the ability of the antifragile to benefit from volatility come from? Can this ability be increased? What policies increase it, and which decrease it? 1/N Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@VergilDen When charlatans, BS artists, and imbeciles try to team up against @nntaleb   Permalink 7:46 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Further, the identity in Debt = Money an entity called “we” owes to an entity called “ourselves” fails ergocity. #ergodicityeconomics @ole_b_peters Permalink 6:23 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “You know you have influence when people start noticing your absence more than the presence of others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes   Permalink 3:24 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@birdxi1988 At first glance,it seems that ergodicity transformation is same as log utility but with a fancy name. This just shows you why they are so different   Permalink 10:48 AM – 5 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS you should not live with: coercion of identity by the state or some IYI.   Permalink 2:54 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes! Doing something that is boring, unnatural, and devoid of organic stimulus is not (necessarily) virtue. It is meant to train people to become good bureaucrats and other slaves.   Permalink 2:52 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/ +Need for *adult supervision* (international) of Salameh & others, no need to replace right away. Permalink 9:21 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/ + Government cannot control the corruption, located is in the “deep” ministries. Changing minister is of no help. +Nonpolitical decentralization only solution. +Central state great at managing sectarian tensions …but incapable of dealing with economic life; it’s a burden Permalink 9:20 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE FINANCIAL SITUATION, INTERVIEW Recorded for LBCI (Thu 9:30 PM). + There ~no primary deficit, so no risk of big collapse. Debt is circular Bank-State. + People are so scared that ANY reduction of uncertainty (via moratorium) would be yuugely beneficial Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In real estate you make money buying the overpriced and selling when extraoverpriced. Avoid the “affordable” crap.   Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Any sucker who buys “Bullshit Claire”’s version of anything or argument about any topic is blocked for intellectual deficiency. Gabish?   Permalink 7:10 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4 hours dinner conversation with @rorysutherland and Rohan @Silva in a Pakistani restaurant in London (2 bottles of wine, but no Negroni). You must buy two copies of Rory’s book, in case one is stolen, lost, damaged (by the rain), or self-destructs. Permalink 3:03 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb So conforming to his status of fake scholar, @charlesmurray promotes a thread by *Claire-the-hysterical basketcase* without any of them knowing what I actually said. Note: Anyone who ever cites Charles Murray on anything becomes a fake scholar.   Permalink 9:28 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@GultekinBurce Small Probability, High Impact Payoffs: The horizontal line can be the payoff over time, or cross-sectional over many simultaneous trials. Full article:   by @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:04 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@STrosterud Yes. Nothing like Taleb accusing the Swedes directly for their Nobel shenanigans Makes both my Norwegian, and Finnish side smile Permalink 11:42 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@paulportesi And the evidence comes later. @nntaleb   Permalink 7:12 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I meant they changed room to the largest one based on registrations. Permalink 7:04 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Volante team. Volante is a publisher in Stockholm. Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room.   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room.   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@AntonioBlaGra While Taleb’s Real World Risk Institute #RWRI was not one of the organizations I reseached, I realize now that it certainly presents the three characteristics of the Internet Culture: open knowledge, decentralization, and reputation based in what you do.   Permalink 3:10 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Except that the Nobel Prize of Literature has the remarkable ability to pick non #Lindy authors too embedded in their time: For France, Sully Prudhomme, Fréderic Mistral,Roger Martin du Gard,Romain Rolland, Anatole France,…   Permalink 2:34 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And desertions, and typhus, and the mud. And he kept losing horses throughout. Permalink 1:32 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon is a prime example of *winning almost all battles but losing the war*. Permalink 1:15 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The single biggest hit was the Pyrrhic victory of Borodino (if we can call it a “victory”). Permalink 1:01 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 12:05 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox churches are even more beautiful!   Permalink 12:02 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon was also the grandmaster of fake news, doctoring up his “bulletins”, misreporting his casualties and those of the enemies, even when he was the winner. Permalink 11:55 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb He simply lost 2/3 of his troops to the Russians and the Cossacks. Permalink 11:51 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb MYTH DU JOUR Napoleon was not that great invincible general who was defeated by the Russian winter, nonmilitary circumstances. His Grande Armée had lost 2/3 of its soldiers before the first frost. Also remember that he (twice) deserted his own army. Permalink 11:46 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Never include in your company name “Forever”, “Long Term (Capital)”, or “Amaranth (Capital)” (flower that never dies).   Permalink 11:37 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@Marcellenassif Ideal morning coffee mug Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the case of @michaelshermer it was not that I block idiots; it was that I block charlatans, @Monsantobuster   Permalink 7:24 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Looks like you got the idea backwards. Permalink 7:22 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@VolanteForlag Finally in Sweden: @nntaleb! Today we are looking forward to a great day in Gothenburg at #bokmässan. Miss that? Tomorrow he will lecture in Stockholm. Tickets here:   @bokmassanGbg @medborgarskolan ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:03 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Aquavit is so strong the Swedes have to drink beer with it. Permalink 11:53 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Giving a lecktschur on Stockholm Monday Sept 30 in the evening to introduce the Swedish edition of Skin in the Game.   Meanwhile aquavit.   Permalink 10:12 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@bkzafar Since no one would believe me otherwise. Got seated next to one of my favourite authors on the train from Stockholm. Welcome to Gothenburg @nntaleb :) Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Explanations: 1- Lebanese banks are NOT lending to businesses, but to the government to service the debt… to the same banks. That’s what I called “circularity”. 2- Merchants now realize that an IOU from another merchant is safer than $ in the “bank”. Salameh needs to go. Permalink 2:05 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 3 + Traditional Lebanese politics along ethnoreligious lines are put on hold (now, money talks). Parties are deemed equally incompetent. Old system of *state employement as political patronage* goes out via attrition. + Real decentralization. Permalink 1:50 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 2 The system fixes itself + People realize that banks returns are not risk-free; Any income generating project than lend to the “circularity”. + Increase in governance from sudden transparent + Noninvestors take a haircut from past gains. Permalink 1:34 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION + The primary budget is about balanced; pressure is from debt servicing. + Higher rates drain the economy as real investment returns pale compared to bank deposits *in US $*, leading to a circularity Gov-Banks-Depositors. Let the system fix itself! Permalink 1:25 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (Continuing the thread)   Permalink 12:58 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 16 That rationality is about ideas, & beliefs (or religion) can be “irrational”. No. Rationality is about action. There is no axiomatic framework for rationality that includes beliefs. It is what you do. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 12:41 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@NupurJoshii I love how Nassim Taleb writes his books! There’s a summary to each section and each chapter.. There’s chapter notes . There’s a guide to the book. There’s hilarity and brilliance all at the same time. I mean. It’s wonderful ! Permalink 11:53 PM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Now first statement by Quilletebecile Young @toadmeisster: “IQ is a better predictor of socioeconomic status than parental socioeconomic status” is plain BS. IQ does not predict income/wealth (close to R^2=0, with cheating they get <.04). Permalink 10:42 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And By the way, Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister, we now have the same raw longitudinal data as the ones used by these studies. Permalink 10:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister you can now go find ALLLLLL the “studies” you want, the effective R^2 IQ tests to economic condition is ~0. Keep trying you and your Neo-Eugenist friends. Permalink 10:21 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb As an Orthodox, today was the second most important day for me (after my baptism). The highest ranking person in Orthodoxy, His Holiness Bartholomeos 1 Patriarch of Constantinople, gave me his blessing & a small gift. It was on a plane out of Constantinopolis. Permalink 10:05 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Mr Young’s own data shows an R^2 of .04 for IQ-Income. He is talking abt socioeconomic condition. Where is the 80% heritability? Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Quillette people make up numbers. This does not show “80% heritability”. Toby Young is a fraud.   Permalink 8:09 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid The “State of the art in SS Fcing” is a review paper for lay readers clarifying what we know, what we are not sure and what we don’t know about the field plus what has been achieved lately The paper is part of the M4 Special Issue of the I. J. of Forecasting @robjhyndman @fotpetr Permalink 4:59 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In fact IQ is 0% correlated to socioeconomic status, Mr Young @toadmeister Fraudster.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Plomin estimates IQ *testing* is 50% heritable, itself weakly correlated to performance. Plus testing is also 80% correlated to other tests. I estimated R^2 of 0% for socio-economic performance. @toadmeister is a quack reciting some Quillette invented mantra. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese (not Lebanese Armenian) manti (shish barak) is cooked in goat milk yoghurt with Med herbs (laban immo) and left to marinate for a bit. Permalink 4:08 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This idiot Toby Young by saying IQ is 80% heritable is not even representing the literature which (falsely) claims a maximum of 50% @toadmeister   Permalink 3:47 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb + sur les bords + pauvre con (h/t @firsou), very different from petit con + fofolle + bancal + bon chic bon genre + pour ta gouverne + foiré Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Noticed that in Tatarstan & Kazakhstan they stuff their manti with horse meat, and, mostly, horse fat; the yoghurt is made from mare’s milk. Permalink 3:27 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Which confirms my theory that Quillette is managed by a collection of low-intellect, low-skilled BS vendors, using poorly warmed up pseudoscience to promote a eugenics agenda and, of course, incapable of hiding it.   Permalink 2:58 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Manti (Istanbul): the ancestor of ravioli. Except, of course, better. Permalink 2:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Democrats: If you are using information from the whistleblower, you MUST ask for Assange’s exoneration. #Coherence Permalink 11:19 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TMFStoffel “Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling” *THIS* more than anything else, is the thing that — once you see it — you can’t un-see. It’s not just Rand. It seems like scale is something that we *ALL* struggle with. But once we see it, it changes everything.   Permalink 8:01 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile   Permalink 6:34 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Ofer just answered the central point: we are not really talking about selfishness, but symmetry. So long as do you not transfer risks to others, you are honorable. You are even more honorable when you take the risks of others.   5/n Permalink 11:55 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (cont) + plouc + de souche + marche a coté de ses pompes + petit con (the “petit” is central) Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This said there are a lot of words in French I know that have no (potent) equivalent in English which come to me in Fr: + vivotter + glander + minable + tête à baffe Permalink 10:41 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This does’nt make “selfishness” honorable. Nature has no junk: it recycles & makes fertilizers out of animal & human waste. Likewise society recycles somewhat selfish pursuits as fertilizer. So we should not be glorify selfishness, no more than we do w/excreta. 4/n Permalink 10:08 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling. In that sense I prefer people to focus Mandeville who inspired Adam Smith’s “it’s not the benevolence of the butcher…” A good society is one that via scale transformation makes a virtuous collective out of somewhat selfish individuals. 3/n Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb a hero who serves the collective (expected return is negative as 999/1000 will fail) and there is no such thing as a “failed” entrepreneur; I subscribe to virtue ethics and Christian morality which makes some of her stances repugnant to me both as a Christian & a Classic-ist. 2/n Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I do share a lot of readers with Ayn Rand and there are some commonalities: 1) To do good, focus on your own business, 2) Bureaucrats are evil, etc. But there are yuuuge differences. I do not believe that individuals should be “selfish”, I do believe that the entrepreneur is 1/n Permalink 9:56 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Should be illegal!   Permalink 9:46 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@zmpng Breaking a 24h fast with squid ink paella. Does @nntaleb approve? Permalink 9:11 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The point is not about Trump but the system. I can easily understand why someone can hate Trump. But changing the rules under asymmetries effectively destroys the system. Permalink 5:49 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb My take: Collusion between two parties needs to emanate from an explicit transaction or a well defined offer, not something vague in a conversation. It should be subjected to the same standards as contractual obligations. Otherwise everything can be interpreted as collusion. Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Bottarga with rosé. Permalink 3:29 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@MarkAmesExiled “The Houthis were only nominally Iran’s surrogates, but they were also our quiet partners against al-Qaeda.” Uncanny how often we try to wipe out Al Qaeda’s enemies   Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or is this Ukraine thingy a pathological delusion? Read the transcript.   Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Blunder duJour: Was telling someone on the phone in French “you gave me invaluable advice” (abt food, of course), came out as literal translation “un avis sans valeur” which means “an opinion of no value” & realized after hanging up. Wonder if I will ever get more food tips. Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapouri, Med version Permalink 1:30 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@rperezmarco “When the scientist points at research the imbecile examines the number of papers” (you can quote me for this one).   Permalink 2:50 AM – 24 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Actions > words. One of the best rules I know. Permalink 11:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

NNT Brazil, Russia 2019 | Youtube

Published on Sep 6, 2019
Nassim Taleb: “O Brasil é o país do futuro. Não precisa de boas pessoas, mas de um bom sistema.”
NNT audio only:


Published on Aug 26, 2019

The WorldSkills Conference 2019 started at important debate between Nassim Taleb and Dmitry Peskov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation on Digital and Technological Development and Director of the department «Young Professionals» of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives. The experts discussed about the risk-engineering and its benefits for creating better management tools and and building a strong competitive economy.
NNT audio only:


Evolutionary Biologists, Ayn Rand, Dawkins, Quilettebeciles, Nate Silver, Mosquitos, Bolton, Pinker, Nudgeboy, Pencilwits, Brasil | Twitter


Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference.

Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence (Hattip Dave Lull)

@nntaleb We had DNA evidence that the ancient Egyptian ruling class came from the North. Socks-with-scandals places them somewhere around what is now Central Germany.   Permalink 2:55 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) People have no problem getting Nietzsche, Le Bon, & other’s point that crowds composed of sane individuals can go crazy. It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals. Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) These simple comments by the 2 fellows destroy +5 decades of evolutionary psychology/biology, etc. I mean really shatter current methods. Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Please do not respond to my claim that “(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb” by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or “he says everybody but me is dumb”. Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc. You will then see the gravity.   Permalink 1:46 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Actually this is a chapter in #SkinintheGame Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Do not mess with him.   Permalink 10:33 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I would tell him that he should feel lucky. Compare these to the worst possible nightmare: an association with Ayn Rand.   Permalink 10:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@MuserMarco His argument is basicallly that because of nonlinear effects the macro (group) cannot be explained by the micro (individual). A group is not just a bunch of individuals. Or in other words, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Permalink 8:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Caro Bret, This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs. Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 7:51 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Cheese Galettes with halloumi & kashkaval made by Syrians from Raqqa (Beirut highway). Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@ProBucks_ “naive interventionism” proving detrimental in yet another complex system with long lasting unintended effects. @nntaleb   Permalink 10:36 PM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The art and science of drinking with Russians. Permalink 11:09 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vitello tonnato with squid ink. #OnlyinMoscow Permalink 8:12 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@GeorgeJNasr #Pedophrasty: Argument involving #Children to prop up a rationalization, & make opponents look like assholes. Nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the #news.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Why is it wrong to be a “group selectionist”, @BretWeinstein ? You do not have to defend yourself ag. the BS vendor @sapinker. The 2 journalists Pinker & Dawkins have been barking/bullshitting w/o showing flaws in Nowak, Wilson et al. #Multiscale & aggregation. @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 5:07 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapuri Permalink 4:04 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don’t know it. Permalink 12:11 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty is spreading   Permalink 12:00 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb водка Permalink 1:35 PM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great John Gray explains that Christianity is, basically, secular humanism.   Permalink 9:15 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dawkins, as exected, another fake scholar.   Permalink 7:47 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@RickyDelFuego Next phase begins when the kids start reading @nntaleb and realize the reason no one listens to the “educated” is because someone who collected $100,000 in debt to get a PhD in “empathy as communication” or whatever isn’t worth listening to.   Permalink 7:14 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid   Permalink 4:12 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@PaulSkallas ”If your private life conflicts with your intellectual opinion, it cancels your intellectual ideas, not your private life.” Permalink 5:53 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And “psychologist”.   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@GuillermoBurr The results are so aberrant and childish that they remind me of Dr Malcolm in the movie Jurasic Park. When he is informed that all dinosaurs are female and that they cannot breed, he answers: life will find a way (sic) Permalink 4:46 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@Vasilis48814362 When I finished black swan, I felt good, but also in panic because I could not believe for once someone was right on pretty much everything. The smear articles online only worsened this panic.   Permalink 4:27 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@holland_tom One is a work of Protestant theology. And one is by me!   Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “it is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most convincing evidence that the psychology of happiness is total BS is to meet “happiness” “expert” psychologists in person.   Permalink 9:31 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@normonics looks like I’ve been using “moron” where I should have been using “imbecile” Nassim gets it right again Permalink 7:41 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@RobRastapop Of all writings I love only that which is written in blood. Nietzsche Not everything that happens, happens for a reason. But everything that survives, survives for a reason. @nntaleb Permalink 6:04 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism means skin in the game and personal accountability @nntaleb   Permalink 5:36 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@AssalehAmer The Bed of Procrustes,   Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A #Lindy drink. So is its (mild) hangover. Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@john_f_hamer “Just as dyed hair makes old men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb Permalink 4:12 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@themintmag “Every time I have questioned these methods I have been abruptly countered with: “they have the Nobel”, which I have found impossible to argue with.” – @nntaleb Hence the need for the #NotTheNobel. Econ is not a science. Vote for a fresh thinker today!   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “What they call philosophy I call literature; what they call literature I call journalism; what they call journalism I call gossip; and what they call gossip I call (generously) voyeurism.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2:13 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@sean_a_mcclure Many lack the scientific literacy needed to understand the IQ debate. I wrote this conceptual article to help those ill-equipped to form an educated opinion on a massively important topic.   @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik #science #psychology ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nabilshadman @nntaleb said “Learning is rooted in repetition and convexity, meaning that the reading of a single text twice is more profitable than reading two different texts once.” Permalink 11:00 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@birdxi1988 Jus realize this is extremely important. Not only in psychology but also in finance. This debunked various kinds of CAPM related regression. Eg, Fama–MacBeth regression(for risk premium). Same situation as here: return(fat tail) is regressed over beta(thin). E(R^2) is zero!   Permalink 10:18 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the Negroni’s 100th anniversary. (in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere. Permalink 8:53 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@willianadamczyk “Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsability”. @nntaleb , 2012 Permalink 8:02 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@kudra_1 “Pedophrasty,” coined by @nntaleb: Using children to “prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children.”   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@JYuter I’m old enough to remember when people called for civility when someone died (and that’s assuming it’s true)   Permalink 4:18 PM – 17 Sep 2019

@garyruskin U.S. Right to Know investigates big food and agrichemical companies. We expose what they want to hide. We stand up for our right to know what’s in our food. Please contribute today:   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@venksaiyan Something @nntaleb has been saying for long. Theory often follows Invention.   Permalink 1:25 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@sjourdan This new edition of #incerto is beautiful. @nntaleb rocks. Permalink 10:21 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@exergiovanni I thought religion was irrational. Thanks to professor @nntaleb I changed my mind diametrically. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is not an “error”: this is genetics. Higher dimensions are really unpredictable. Permalink 3:25 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “I am never bothered by normal people; it is the bull***tter in the intellectual profession who bothers me.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:33 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to not realize that so many “noble” pursuits (academia, service, anything where one is paid with “honors”) are zero-sum. And wealth pursuits, outside of rent seeking, aren’t zero-sum.   Permalink 12:42 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Joey Automata: you need the Quilettebeciles to keep posting complaints about you, not the reverse. Keep irritating them, don’t reply TO them.   Permalink 9:55 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are other errors… the person who put the cheat sheet together is not familiar with probability. Permalink 8:17 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “thinking like Nate Silver” part is a red flag.   Permalink 8:13 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vegan is Halal, not the opposite. Much more asymmetric that you think.   Permalink 6:50 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@sustain05 Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@_benoux_ For those who still don’t get it. Let’s use an another example: @nntaleb published an excellent book, “SKIN IN THE GAME”. A figurative title consolidates a background in probability & statistics. He didn’t name it “Enlightened Reason & Science of Risks in Humanism” (Pinker-like). Permalink 5:36 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile Permalink 4:38 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is the only compliment that counts, not that I actually agree with the designation “ash*” as a proxy for uncompromizing.   Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we need 3 more applicants for women scholarships for RWRI 12 in New York Oct 24.   Permalink 9:29 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@BLebnene L fasel l 20 min kteb Le Petit Prince bil Libnene bil 7arfen l 3arabe wil Letiine! Tarjamit @HsenAndil الفصل ال20 من كتاب Le Petit Prince باللبناني بالحرفين العربي واللاتيني!   Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@zkortbawy باللبناني”خَلّيك هَون Khallik Hawn” = “إبقى هنا Ibka Houna” بالعربي #بتحكي_لبناني_كتوب_لبناني @BLebnene Permalink 2:13 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sample   Permalink 2:48 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Northern Lebanese, from Zgharta.   Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@DrMichaelBonner For flexibility and clarity: Greek; For precision: a tie between Latin and Arabic; For sound: a tie between Syriac and Persian; For rhythm: Arabic; For intricacy: Sanskrit; For interesting texts: Greek, Aramaic, Syriac, and Armenian. For sheer mental exertion: Hieroglyphic!   Permalink 1:13 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This guy is good. And he knows his stuff.   Permalink 12:03 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, Bill Gates doesn’t get that neomania works with software with reversible errors, not with complex systems.   Permalink 9:18 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@Jaffer22915438 FWIW: Tulsi Gabbard had more traffic to her website during the Dem debate than any day since the last debate. Permalink 8:30 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@wrathofgnon We know that modern grains are far less nutritious than ancient grains. Turns out even our great-grand parents ate vegetables that were many times as nutritious as what we are eating today.   Permalink 8:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, “unforeseen outcomes”. When will IYIs learn that we don’t understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism? Permalink 6:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A reminder that neuroscience, psychology, etc. are NOT reliable, not citable, not useable for anything other than tenure & academic rent seeking.   Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 12:47 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR R^2 is expected to be 0 but in small samples it shows much higher value, here .98. Small is anything <10^8. (cont) Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man   Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:41 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Didn’t we put this, @normonics, in our Precautionary Principle paper? Where did it go? Permalink 11:20 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb You can’t industrialize, commoditize, & scale knowledge without destroying it at is core. Scholarship is fundamentally an artisanal-style pursuit. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@Contrepoints Face au terrorisme, les #neoconservateurs pensent pouvoir utiliser l’hégémonie politique, militaire et diplomatique pour façonner un monde à leur convenance. Pour @nntaleb, ils font trois erreurs constantes que @FredericMasCP nous explique. #Bolton #Trump   Permalink 11:06 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From experience, I haven’t seen erudites inside academia (few exceptions). By erudition, I mean solid knowledge (ancient languages, history, mathematics, literature-but-not-literary-theories) & naturally exclude knowledge of crap & theories written since 1924 in social “science”.   Permalink 10:17 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The association “juzur lubnan” is doing great environmental work; but it is named using loan words from Arabic. Should be renamed “Shlush Lebnén”. #Localism #StandAgainstArabImperialism Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Neomania in #Antifragile   Permalink 8:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “naturalistic fallacy” is not a fallacy outside the moral domain. Gabish? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I am scared of living in a society that doesn’t find it obvious that things perfected by nature over millions of years are scientifically speaking, safer than things made by some “scientists” in a lab. [Corrected] Statistically, the “large n” of nature makes it > scientific.   Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb No bureaucrats in peace discussions without some adult supervision. PRINCIPIA POLITICA   #Blackswanman   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:12 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb NEgotiation. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This was predictive: Black Swan Man tells Trump to have NO bureaucrat involved in ANY peace negociation. No bureaucrat in anything other than record keeping/clerical stuff.   Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man   Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:51 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@TheBobber Plant-based burgers may be “safe” but they are loaded with crap that Your Grandmother would not recognize and you would be wise (and healthier) to heed the advice of @nntaleb and avoid them.   Permalink 11:39 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The only honest scientific approach to a system as large and complex as the “climate” is one of acknowledging uncertainty, and proceeding with precaution   Permalink 6:13 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The incessant interventionism of @BillGates and his ilk is enabled by the pathological certainty generated by scientism   Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@city_affairs “The intellectual yet idiot is subscribed to the New Yorker” @nntaleb   Permalink 6:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@oskarth @nntaleb Squid ink in Venesia Permalink 5:53 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3rd is the Charm. This continues Cirillo & Taleb (2016, 2019), Clauset (2018) showing Pinker @sapinker statement on decline of wars is total BS. @BillGates shd read the scientific literature before peddling Pinker’s flawed journalistic book.   Permalink 5:06 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Good news: Jon Entine and the Genetics Literary Project are designed to intimidate and smear GMO skeptics. They kept spread articles on yours truly.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@financequant Got a big laugh in my class this afternoon. “In most sciences if reality and the model don’t match, then the model is deemed wrong. In economics that’s taken as evidence that there is something wrong with reality.” Thing is, I wasn’t trying to be funny. Permalink 5:24 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Excellent news. 40 years of sanctions… Enough unnecessary tensions. Had bureaucrats been involved, the 30 year war would have lasted 300 years.   Permalink 1:55 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Il faudrait le traduire en francais.   Permalink 1:32 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb France is listening to the idea that IQ is largely a fraud.   Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A French essayist watched me during a twitter fight. Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In Brazil met a fellow who plants trees for paper; claimed the 000s trees he planted yuuugely help the environment. STATIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book they cut a tree. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book, they plant a tree for 5-15 years. Use paper! Similar to ergodicity. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Since @davidgraeber is a target of Quilletbeciles, here is some information about their intellectual standards.   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I celebrate a certain class of events (Bolton’s demise, Pinker’s new BS) by drinking Советское шампанское, the only think left from the Soviet Union that still makes sense. Or rather, by taking a few celebratory sips then switching to vodka, arak, pastis.   Permalink 4:41 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In one word, you get Steven Pinker @sapinker and the Mickey Mouse version of Western thought. Never read anything about the enlightenment by anyone (1) insufficiently trained in Greek/Latin, (2) not familiar w/medieval thought, (3) not familiar with theology (comes with (2))   Permalink 1:37 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Another reminder that @charlesmurray is a fake scholar, without even going into his Bell Curve.   Permalink 1:15 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There goes my diet! Forgot about this plan to have champaign on the day Bolton is out.   Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb That’s the NYT. Trump not looking for regime change in Iran. Permalink 11:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Thank you.   Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Transitivity of correlation abused. An #Offshorecomic strip idea sparked by @nntaleb #correlation #IQ #transitivity #SocialSciences For more visit   Buy my here   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb IQ does not PREDICT career success. Now that I have the data, found the R^2 close to 0. Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: Better presented in a Log Log Plot. 15-25 dimensions exceed the computational capacity of the planet. DNA has 000s dimensions. Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@satyakatla What contrasts Taleb frm information theorists (ITs), IMHO, is that he does math mystical, finds physical significance, which I don’t see amongst my wireless (who does mechanically) and IT folks. I’ve had learned more math just by following Taleb than any coursework I had taken. Permalink 5:42 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Rates do not reflect probability but expectation: “recessions” can take many values. This is BS. Will add to the paper on the flaws in binarizing forecasts (cc:@spyrosmakrid )   Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: it always shows up. Here I illustrate it with norms. Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don’t work, etc. Permalink 5:16 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@QuintusCurtius Great thread. See @nntaleb rip into this historically-inaccurate, agenda-driven depiction of St. Augustine, who was of either Punic (i.e., Phoenician) or Berber ancestry.   Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 22 years of fighting for that simple point, everyone understands except social scientists, GMO shills, and ignorant risk peddlers . 22 years: How many fraudsters such as nudgeboy @r_thaler or Phil-the-rat Tetlock @PTetlock should we go through before we get that point? Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From 1997   Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Voila The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3 Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Added the tutorial on norms to the book (Chapter 3) to show what happens with higher moments of distributions. Permalink 5:13 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb David Blaine just tore a deck of cards in half —a real deck. Permalink 3:00 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of pencilwits didn’t get that it does not mean people always do things for money; it just means that those who are doing somthing “not for the money” don’t go out of their way to inform you of that fact. Blocked a bunch. Permalink 2:50 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb When someone says “I am not doing it for the money” he (she) is doing it only for the money. Permalink 9:54 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@QustnEverything Over 10 years since the last recession—this is a reason to be cautious; not complacent. From @nntaleb “The Black Swan” Permalink 9:30 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most humiliating moment: had (a long) dinner afterwards with the 3 cousins who spoke no English. Tried babbling in Portuguese, with help from a few Negronis, two caipirinhas &, of course, wine. At the end one of them complimented me: “how come you speak Spanish?” Permalink 1:44 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Because μεράκι I see as “soul in the game”   Permalink 3:51 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Is there a connection between the Greek μεράκι , the Lebanese mara2, (meaning enjoying some activity for its own sake, not the Arabic مرق meaning chicken broth), and the Turkish Meraklı? If so, where is the root coming from? Permalink 12:48 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@EmersonSpartz It’s pure laziness to think procrastination is caused by laziness. “Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.” -@nntaleb Permalink 10:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dunya guzeli   Permalink 7:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference. Permalink 6:03 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@apas .@nntaleb-like vignette. Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@NavariniLorenzo Italian ambassador to Austria, Sergio Barbanti, is citing @nntaleb’s Black Swan for opening a seminar on diplomat Nigra in Vienna! I guess that the lindy effect is, slowly, working Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@DrGeneCallahan Over-optimizations: Sterilized kitchens Avoidance of all possible allergens with kids Weight machines that isolate a muscle Work schedules with no slack Economies with no downturns @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness from the 70s to the late 90s, NY was not good-but-crap, rather crap-but-great. Permalink 8:08 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@thackerpd 1 5 Switching gears: Brief lecture on how #Monsanto tracks and works to counter reporters such as @sfoucart @stephanehorel @tristanwaleckx @gaellombart Document shows #Monsanto strategy w/ help from PR firm @PublicisGroupe to counter #MonsantoPapers   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the “CRAP BUT GOOD” category, there is an expression about Paolo Maluf: “Maluf steals but delivers” as he kept being reelected in spite of accusations of corruption. Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI.   Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Keep trying, blind idiots.   Permalink 4:12 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Don’t judge a city by bureaucratic criteria like traffic jams, cleanliness, safety, etc., but by something deeper in the soul of the place. Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom.” (“NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good”) Permalink 3:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of (tasty) meat in the Republica Federativa do Brasil. Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Churrasco Brasileiro Permalink 9:23 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Correction: Sao Paolo is pronounced like the French “saon”. Permalink 6:28 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sao Paulo Don’t be fooled by the orthography. “Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”. Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sidley Austin did nothing “illegal”. But smearing, targeting, mobbing, and lying are UNETHICAL practices. Unacceptable! Boycott/Blacklist Sidley Austin.   Permalink 3:31 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@adrianaleboss @BLebnene Permalink 10:28 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@JoshHochschild This price is back.   Permalink 7:50 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Mangan150 Why is Vegetable Oil in EVERYTHING? | The History and Corruption Behind Processed Oils   Permalink 5:17 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you have been employed by someone (Trump, Hillary, or Joey The Knife) as a personal assistant, it is yuugely unethical for you to ever divulge what you saw or heard in that capacity. (Except, of course, if you are subpoenaed, witnessed murder, were asked to commit a crime…) Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@ishirubi It’s September now. Usually, habitually I still buy notebooks and pens for myself. This year it’s different. Grabbed the book for a second round, reading preface, chills chills chills. Looks like I forgot a lot since January. Here we go! #rereadincerto #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 12:59 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Prof_BearB Following in the footsteps of Cirillo and Taleb (2016) and Clauset (2018), I hasten to note :-) Thank you, and thanks for the shout-out!   Permalink 12:39 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If these finance “academics” could predict they would not be academics. The only thing they know is how to become academics.   Permalink 6:49 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 2:54 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you lose money, it can be bad luck. It you blow up, it is certainly incompetence. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 2:39 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. If you lose money, it can be bad luck. If you blow up, it is never bad luck.   Permalink 2:32 AM – 4 Sep 2019

Pedophrasty, BS Detection, IQ, White Supremacy, Weightlifting, Data Scientists, Behavioral Economics, SUNSTEIN, @TulsiGabbard, Plomin, Kazan, Matheux, Harari, Gelman, Quilletebeciles, Argentina

The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the “diversity” operators Medium

@nntaleb A sample of the fights between instructors   Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Scholarships are open for the Oct 28 session, RWRI 12   PS @VergilDen is an instructor.   Permalink 10:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@NClibbens @nntaleb Cost and time estimates overrun. Where I have I read about that problem? #incerto   Permalink 10:07 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@thousandairefx @nntaleb Rent seekers!   Permalink 9:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@vvv_ilya A few months ago I’ve been traveling to CH considering the opening of a Swiss company. At the airport, I started reading Skin in the Game by @nntaleb and in a few mins met Mr. Taleb! Why I’m telling this story now? Because I just got YouHodler SA registered! It was a sign Permalink 8:09 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@GuruAnaerobic Tony Blair is a psychopath. He’s a psychopath with no shame. He’s a psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy, lying, psychopath with no shame and no morals.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 25 years of Calabrese lessons, ~ 15 lessons a year. Permalink 6:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@noemie_issan J’adore quand @nntaleb insulte en français. Cela ne manque pas de sel “Con fini” est une de mes insules preferées, avec “imbécile heureux”   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great news from this is that Malaysia is a Sunni majority country. Extremely encouraging.   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Can “Yes” in Lebanese (mbala) is come from the Yes in Persian (بله) than the negation in Semitic: (“بلا”=”without”)? Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SITG is not just disincentives but, centrally, FILTERING. It bankrupts incompetent pple and remove them from the system so they stop harming others.   Permalink 8:37 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Extreme Value Theory: How Pareto=> Fréchet, a simple demonstration. Permalink 7:20 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile it is all probabilistic so far. The Anatolian hypothesis is just much stronger. Permalink 5:50 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 15 That Indo European languages were born in the Eurasian Pontic-Caspian steppes/Northern Caucasus. Much higher possibility they were born in East-Med, Anatolia. Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 4) The theory is that Aramaic entered Egypt with the Persians who used it as a lingua franca. But there were numerous pockets of Aramaic-writing Jews (hence other Levantines/Anatolians). But the DNA story makes everything else fragile! Permalink 4:17 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) Something for master historical detective @Safaitic to help us with. Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) Also further coincidences: that the DNA of the mummies is turning out to be Levantine/Anatolian, not Egyptian. And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian. Permalink 3:47 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Things I learned this year: There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic. I was wondering why Egyptian say “mayya” for water & other Levantinisms. Permalink 3:16 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (“Zamat bi-risho” mush jéyé min rishé bass mnil seryéné “bi raso”, “rish”=ras.) Permalink 10:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Zamatna. Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@rorysutherland The reason this ergodicity thing is useful to marketers is that it explains why they often feel lonely: the managerial-financial aggregated snapshot view of a business lies at 90-degrees to the customer’s experience of a business over time.   Permalink 1:55 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Second version Permalink 1:51 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@vtchakarova The DNC would rather lose than nominate Tulsi Gabbard. ‘Gabbard actually has skin-in-the-game. She fought for — and earned — everything she’s achieved.’ cc @nntaleb #SITG #TulsiGabbard   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is there a nonBS education outside of STEM, say in the humanities? Yes, classical languages + Heb/Aramaic/Ar/Sanscrit. French used to select on skills in Latin, not just because of access to texts. It’s because to be really good at Latin one must have read of lot of #Lindy stuff. Permalink 2:26 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected finally. Thanks friends for the detection! Permalink 1:22 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Most influential story, heard when I was a beginning trader: Big trader M runs into a junior in the bathroom. M:”Whatyoudoing today?” “Just bought this bond, Broker A recommended it” M kept shouting “But he’s a f** broker, a f** broker” & fired the trader while in the bathroom. Permalink 12:40 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The #1 skill set is BS detection. Jaffer @Jaffer22915438 fughodaboudit because it is very, very natural to him.   Permalink 12:09 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another 2 mistakes: limits ->0 not 1. Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Oops. I changed symbols from \eta to \epsilon when I turned the page. Corrected Permalink 11:36 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Probability du jour: Why you can’t use regression with fat tails. Showing the biases in psychobullshit studies, among others. Added a section to my next book. For error correction. Permalink 11:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@TerrenceMaldick Reading indiscriminately > everything. Best @nntaleb advice ever is: fuck school, just go to a library and “freestyle read” to ur heart’s content. Why? Because reading pre-ordained books makes u only enjoy reading a LITTLE. Freestyle reading teaches u to LOVE reading. Amen Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Autocrat meant, initially, free.   Permalink 2:47 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb New section in book: Thin Tails + Fat Tails = Fat Tails, no matter the ratios in the mixing. Permalink 2:31 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Typo: they are power law distributed low exponent <2. It is easy to find massaging in the data. Permalink 1:37 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@NealPortenza @nntaleb of all the things you’ve taught me (fat tails, barbell distribution, risk etc), the one thing I remain most grateful for? Squid ink. Allora… Permalink 12:52 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@ggalexsava Permalink 11:57 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man The accuracy of a forecast is measured only in profits. #blackswanman #theblackswanman @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @HillaryClinton #forecasterrors #elections Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Apprenticeship: law was not really a university thing. You learn working with doers. #Skininthegame Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Rossy CDG. Permalink 4:55 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In matters of politics (and love), “never” means “soon”.   Permalink 4:33 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Squared residuals reveal the Winsorizing. They are a power low but someone did something funny to the data. Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@Raddish27 @nntaleb jealous much? #Croatia #ink #Vrbosca Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Aug 2019

@BLebnene W hode kamen al3aab kruute bil Libnene: Le3beh 3a Krouteh, Zello ma T2ello, Min El Ghoul (ssuwar min Multiverse, Hamra). Permalink 8:15 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Here we go again. The replication crisis is now hitting IQ studies… Used the same approach as I did with fakescholar @sapinker, under recommendation by @yaneerbaryam: first use THEIR own data, then proceed to uncovering theoretical flaws. Permalink 1:28 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I find it EXTREMELY racist and offensive to group all non Northern Europeans, or people from non EU members as a single group of “minorities”, where one can substitute for another.   Permalink 11:43 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mystery solved. They “manufactured” IQ scores in the NLS79, from “correlation”. Data invalid, only acceptable one is WLS. Permalink 10:57 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who (thankfully) don’t know what Jesuitic casuistry is, see below. (BTW my father and grandfather were educated by Jesuits; it has been my dream —for years — to find a Jesuit casuist for a good Twitter fight). Permalink 1:51 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Send me a photo?” There was a time my childhood, when Jesuit priests had 1) erudition, 2) scholarship, 3) knew science &, most of all, 4) When they engaged in *jesuit* casuistry, they were VASTLY more refined in argument: simply, they weren’t THAT easy to catch. Permalink 1:38 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Fake! St Augustine was a Med. He looked no different from any Sicilian or Maltese. Africa meant “Southern (West) Med”.   Permalink 11:56 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Finally, the IQ question is far, far too simple! Someone incompetent massaged the data at some National Bureau in Washington & psychologists have been using it because it is more favorable to the IQ case. The NLS data is fake. See the blue, compared to Gaussian & Orange (WLS) Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Wiki explains Mutual Information more accurately. Key: it works under NONLINEARITIES. And it is additive. And it is concrete in a betting sense. And it is … ergodic! (Enters the Kelly criterion). Permalink 7:16 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@thackerpd Exclusive: #Monsanto used former top DOJ official involved in Epstein deal to quash felony case by @adamzagorin & @schwellenbach via @YahooNews   #Monsanto just can’t stay out of the news. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:08 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb >150 million “Europeans” are Meds. Meds are a different group.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The term “white supremacy” is a terrible misnomer; 1) white is indicative of purity not color & 2) does not map to what is called “white” (Caucasian/Western Eurasian) or light skinned (many Asians are light skinned), only to NorthWestern Europe. Best term as replacement: Permalink 4:25 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Also, from Zakorsky’s data, turns out that I was correct (in spite of blog posts by incompetent “data scientists”): Correlation is much lower for higher income. Actually not existent. Permalink 4:03 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@arrington “If your anger decreases with time, you did injustice; if it increases you suffered injustice” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:26 PM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Now entropy methods, Mutual Information, i.e. “how much does someone’s IQ tell you about his/her wealth or income?” or “how much more can you bet on Wealth knowing IQ or vice versa). Answer: “zero”. Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb On the NY-Continent flight, only 6-7 h.: people eat dinner, then 4 hours later, are served breakfast “so they get strength”. You even have to request explicitly that they do NOT wake you up for breakfast. Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile   Permalink 3:32 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In real weightlifting (no-machines), you largely work out your neural system. It requires yuuuge concentration to push a piece of metal over your head. & it is exhilarating, like a street fight. Low-intensity “routines” on gym treadmills dull your mind, turn you into an academic Permalink 2:30 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am intolerant of BS vendors, even when they are right. And always tolerant of scholars, even when they are wrong. Permalink 1:35 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at the NLS used by Zagorsky, thanks to Beyon Miloyan. Data is invalid, though results similar to ones from WLS. IQ is truncated, income is cooked up. People in Finance learn how to ferret out statistical cooking in <9 minutes of examination. Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And the jacknife shows my data is clean. Permalink 4:01 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And minutes later, Donaldo got into negotiation mode!   Permalink 3:20 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@ahshoja Is @realDonaldTrump getting advice from @nntaleb or reading @nntalebbot?   Permalink 1:15 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@NonMeek .@otrasenda_AC @trishankkarthik @nntaleb @Vasilis48814362 Finally found the time to finish what I promised: “Oliver & Trishank vs Skinny IYI Zombies [#ZIYI].” My interpretation I hope you like it. Permalink 9:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 9:36 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The best so far! Incentives for peace not tawk!   Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS #peace #Vienna #Iran #Hayek #Popper #Freud Permalink 7:16 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kamén la nfham 3a ba3dan: manna jéyin la n7ké bi shi illa l-lgha. Ma fi 3ila2a bi shghlé l téné (w ktbé).   Permalink 6:12 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Now thanks to raw data, I am uncovering something >> more sinister in IQ research. When the slope is + but R^2 is terrible they only show the slope. When R^2 is high but the slope is ~0, they show R^2. When both are bad, they truncate the data, which increases R^2. Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont)   Permalink 5:22 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just to confirm, the thread by a few IQ “data scientists” (who don’t understand R^2) nitpicking my piece is BS. All noise.   Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who think behavioral economics has been “helpful” (outside consulting fees), some news.   Permalink 3:49 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb To express the trade-off from iatrogenics in a simple heuristic: Take no medicine that does not make you live longer. #antifragile Permalink 3:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Status is zero-sum game. Money is not in free economies.   Permalink 12:46 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@MulusewGerb Our 3rd Scientific colloquium titled ‘Antifragile and health care system in Ethiopia’ will be held in October. The idea is based on seminal work of @nntaleb and our speaker will b @MillaAugestine. @Elias_Yesuf @LegeseDadi @ateklu72 #missitnot #antifragile #robustness Permalink 11:47 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Tabula rasa. Let us say someone zapped all books and papers published since 1900 in psychology. Everything. Would it carry the smallest negative impact on your life? Permalink 3:50 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Today’s blog -> Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids:   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb SUNSTEIN, my model for the IYI, w/the rigor of an artichoke. Master BS busting applied statistician Andrew Gelman has been dunking on him. At the bottom, Sunstein believes research in psychology should be like a business franchise, to defend by all means.   Permalink 12:30 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3)Jewish Aramaic:ambiguous שהד or הדס but no apparent link witness = martyr as in Greek. So must be a Christian tradition; supicion that Greek => Christian Aramaic, not reverse. Now entered Arabic شهيد via Syriac. Note “Kornet L Sawda” is corruption of Kornet Shhodé. Permalink 12:21 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “the best horses lose when they compete with slower ones, and win against better rivals.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) Same in Christian Aramaic: Shhoda=witness and martyr, from the Greek version. Looking for the Jewish/Babylonian Aramaic use.   Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Retranslated; “For the Egyptians, no one illiterate can be a witness”.   Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The statements: + > 95% of lethal diseases have a genetic etiology. + > 95% of deaths from disease are environmental. are not incompatible. @PZalloua explained that real world #SITG disciplines (Medicine) don’t take the works of “evolutionary”/DNA (pple a la Plomin) v. seriously. Permalink 10:24 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids:   #math #mathchat Permalink 8:08 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb At the geneticist @PZalloua’s place in Marounistan. Not a single Byzantine church in the entire zone! Rumophobic but gorgeous scenery. Permalink 6:10 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Fundamental Tail Asymmetry: an illustration using the drop in MERVAL, of how you can accept, never really reject fat tails unless you have some physical law bounding deviations. Adding to the book. [It is Popperian falsification applied to inference] Permalink 3:55 PM – 24 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Usually, when I go after BS vendors on Twitter, they gain followers. Not here. Need a new BS-vending target both as public service & to make my journey between the republics of Tatarstan & Northern Phoenicia more entertaining. Any suggestion?   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Aug 2019

@GaricMoran 1000 PHD’s in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD’s in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates! Permalink 5:13 PM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox church next to a mosque in Kazan’s Kremlin. Permalink 9:48 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb They are still looking for holes in my IQ is nonsense argument.   Permalink 8:34 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connections imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer. ” PRINCIPIA POLITICA   Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@bulat_abdrkhmnv @nntaleb посетил Казань и @WorldSkillsKZN и поделился своим видением взгляда в будущее Permalink 12:57 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@TimurShagivalee Wealth comes from technical skills, not from universities Благосостояние происходит из технических навыков, а не из университетов @nntaleb #WorldSkillsKazan2019 100%! Permalink 12:14 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Olympiads of techné (vs epistemé): no BS real world skills vs college w/humanities lecktshurers. Permalink 11:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb News from Kazan: Russians are opening a new university with an expiration date based on comment in #Antifragile. Starts in 2020, ends in 2035. May restart then under a new adaptive program. #worldskills   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard “As president I’ll end the failed war on drugs, legalize marijuana, end cash bail, and ban private prisons and bring about real criminal justice reform. I’ll crack down on the overreaching intel agencies and big tech monopolies who threaten our civil liberties and free speech.” Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb By policy, if my BS detector makes me go after someone very hard, it is BECAUSE I know his/her work. For instance, I read everything from Pinker. Psychs are idiots. It is almost never the reverse. Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at Plomin’s work. 1-Knows 0 abt correlation (misses on linearity, transitivity, etc.) 2-Knows 0 abt error propagation & dimensionality, basically multivariate probability. 3-Grossly overestimates heredity (via pairwise twin studies) 4-Doesn’t get IQ score !=intelligence   Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@JoostvanderLeij You measure xG for 10K players, then count their goals scored. 2000 of them are dead. Dead players score 0 on xG and 0 on goals. The rest have the xG uncorrelated to the goals. What is the spurious correlation xG/goals? Answer: 37% Adapted from @nntaleb   Permalink 1:23 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. Permalink 9:36 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@financequant Anyone who had attended the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI seminar led by @nntaleb et al. would already know this. The detailed example we give is a simple discrete recursion that reproduces the fractal structure of the human lung. 1/2   Permalink 3:18 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People aren’t getting my point. Nothing to do with causation. Correlation requires linearity, does’nt allow subsampling and is very nonlinear.   Permalink 9:31 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@RandPaul IT SHOULD BE GETTING AUDITED @realDonaldTrump!   Permalink 8:28 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am getting tired of pple lecturing me on “Italian” expressions. “Gabish” is to capisci what “gabagool” is to capicola, and “avangool” to … Permalink 8:23 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@Marvin_3 This has nothing to do with causation. Can you please stop making @nntaleb points for him, sounding like a PARROT.   Permalink 6:39 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore. The article has been generalized by eugenists to genetics & heritability. All it can scientifically confirm is the trivial notion that some people are betters than others given same practice in a specific environment. You can’t get to DNA without yuuuge BS.   Permalink 5:30 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is the fundamental metrics that social scientists don’t seem to get but talk abt like PARROTS. What is correlation? It’s the average of 2 normalized variables MULTIPLIED by one another. In some NARROW circumstances it expresses a statistical association. Which ones? Permalink 5:20 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous BS. Very dangerous. Permalink 4:33 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb India, please stay away from Cass Sunstein. He is the person behind my original IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) article.   Permalink 4:15 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@EricRyderMorgan Didn’t expect to find trail running advocacy in Antifragile @nntaleb !   Permalink 8:03 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 3:06 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Friends, this is the first draft of my forward for Cippola’s Basic Laws of Stupidity. For comments. Thanks. Permalink 2:51 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Edit: 1830. Permalink 12:11 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A Must! + Arithmetic didn’t initially develop for scientists, but for traders/accountants + Before 1930 Mathematics was about the real world. Then it got concerned with abstraction + Texts hide experiments in math leading to theorems. Ramanujan did experimental math. Even Euler.   Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb Permalink 9:31 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2030s?   Permalink 8:51 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I spent my life hearing economists telling me “nothing new; we know about convexity”; then they write an rquation missing the fact that a function of an average can’t be an average of functions. Same with fat tails.   Permalink 8:20 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@buchmanster Oh cool another picture of a young @nntaleb from when he traded chicken futures   Permalink 8:01 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@ara_anderson Today’s @mathonco research in progress is a double act from @mathoncbro @StroblMAR on The (anti-)fragility of adaptive therapy! Work inspired by @nntaleb – at Vincent A. Stabile Research Building Permalink 7:15 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I went after Fannie-Mae in 2003   Permalink 5:52 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) I am much stronger than I was at 26. I know a lot more than I did at 26, after eliminating news, only #Lindy books. I speak more languages than I did at 26. I am more independent than I was at 26. but, mostly I made so many mistakes I have more scars than I had at 26. Permalink 5:50 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANTIFRAGILE   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:54 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Secrets of longevity: bad birth records. Les secrets des 5 régions championnes de la longévité   Permalink 2:46 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Taleb #yoga Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Long time ago, an option trader without facial hair, deadlifts & a twitter account. Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Simple 1D problem. Assume 25 siblings have a genetic predisposition to Type 2 diabetes. In a hunter gatherer envir, they will show no correlations w/r to diseases. Move them to Kansas city => high correlation, hence “genetic determinism”. Now think how this blows up in higher D. Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (For the stickler:) matheux= “matheux mais pas mathematicien” Permalink 10:56 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nabilshadman Plausible scenario in jobs without skin in the game. @nntaleb would probably agree. Permalink 7:44 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Twin studies vastly overestimate heredity: they yield different results from field studies. Reason: they fail to get 2nd order effects & complex interactions, dominant under convexity. Plomin’s studies for IQ are even worse; yuuge flaws mathematically.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:59 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Scholar with #skininthegame   Permalink 5:40 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb *going into more and more abstract objects.* Permalink 7:25 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3/ Real mathematicians are obsessed with abstraction, going into more and more abstract. “Matheux” like contact and feedback with the concrete. During the Soviet era, mathematicians were forced to prove *some* connection to things, how they were helping the building of the USSR Permalink 7:00 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@VergilDen “Bullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI Permalink 2:54 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 2:48 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Make sure you read this twice. Explain the charlatanism in Plomin’s book. Some pple have know for years that higher dimensions cancel predictability (curse of dim). Now they are finally figuring it out in genetics and neuroscience.   Permalink 2:47 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2/ I learned from a long career in math finance to never hire mathematicians (PhD in math) to solve math problems or toy with actual equations. You get a better payoff with a “matheux” who studied (undergrad) electrical engineering in India, Russia, Lebanon, or Brazil. Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 1/ The French have a distinction mathematician vs. “matheux”. + The mathematicia(e)n is like someone who composes music; doesn’t have to perform, be good w/instruments. Invents math. + The matheux is someone who plays an instrument; can be a virtuoso but doesn’t compose music. Permalink 1:45 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Real World Risk Institute We’re opening full and partial scholarships for #RWRI 12. October 28 in NYC.   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: governance declines with scale. Some places more than others. The dream of a “strong nation” that plays geopolitics instead of focusing on law, to facilitate services & commerce is a Baathist disease. Permalink 7:06 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I block anyone who cites Harari as a reference for anything. Worse than Pinker. Gabish? Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR If you introduce unbiased noise in birth records, (keeping average life expectancy the same), you yuuuugely increase the number of fake centenarians. Why? Because the tail doesn’t care about the average as much as the imprecision!   Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Michael Gove is correct. I was told that the movie is an excellent subtitute for the book.   Permalink 5:47 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos I’m starting to empathise with @nntaleb in the vicious way he goes after people. Fuck niceties. The people who think fake meat will just get invented sans consequences are either naive ideologues or sociopaths who think it’s fun to tamper with this billions old ecosystem.   Permalink 5:20 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb P-Hacking and the distribution of p-values, a 3 year old result still not understood by social “scientists”.   Permalink 4:24 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Please stop the “correlation is not causation” mantra. It’s worse: correlation is not correlation.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We’re at 162,648! Let’s surprise Tulsi when she gets back from National Guard active duty on August 26 by reaching 170,000! Let’s show her how much grassroots support there truly is for her and for her message of peace and prosperity for all! —TeamTulsi #TULSI2020 Permalink 4:51 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 3:54 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity. Permalink 3:43 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many have sent me this tweet; here is my answer. Remember transfats? And another 0000s of these “obviously” safe thingies? I am really scared to live in a society in which people take @sapinker seriously. On anything. That’s all I have to say. Permalink 3:34 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@engler_j What a lovely and accurate summary of my work! by @nntaleb Permalink 2:27 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My Principia Politica is not out yet. Yet its terminology is having some impact! Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb This is what people don’t get: smaller states don’t have minorities and majority rules eradicating them. Too much 19th century thinking. Actually France wanted Germany to be fragmented in 1945; they thought a Federation would be “weak”.   Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@DrGeneCallahan The Mule: Clint Eastwood becomes cartel’s top drug deliverer by following haphazard schedule. But new guy takes over and makes him follow exact route and timetable. Immediately caught! Over-optimization leads to disaster! @nntaleb Permalink 6:36 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Dr. Sagner @MichaelSagnerMD and I are finalizing a paper on Uncertainty in Medicine, illustrated by the following two studies on treating mild HBP: One showing benefits and the other harm and a third discovering 396 medical reversals. How can lay people can deal with uncertainty? Permalink 6:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Only #Localism works.   Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ireland, Czeck Rep., Slovakia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Cyprus… People get along better as neighbors than as roommates. Time for Syrians to understand the large Nation-State with “grandeur” & prestige has failed them, destroyed minorities. Small is beautiful. Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, incompetence wins over conspiracy. Always assume incompetence first. (There still may be some conspiracy.)   Permalink 4:48 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Syria should understand the notion of cutting the cancer & consider some partition East/West (currently taboo). You cannot spend the next decades taking then retaking Jihadi areas. ما حدا قسم و ندم! @EHSANI22   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars.   Permalink 4:50 PM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And ignore statements about “math geniuses with High IQ”. 1- how many high IQ can do math? 2- Ramanujan, Groethendieck, Mandelbrot were horrrrrrrible at standardized tests… has a mystical link to math… Permalink 8:34 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Reread and you will find it. Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A metric that ONLY detects “below average” will show 80% correlation with performance. (corrected typos) Permalink 7:51 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@vtchakarova ‘Skin in the Game’ and ‘Fooled by Randomness’ by @nntaleb in Sofia, Bulgaria. Permalink 7:50 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A clearer presentation showing how a metric for disease can falsely masquerade as a metric for performance because “correlation” is not appropriate (and should NEVER be used) under nonlinearity. Something the Quillettebeciles don’t get. Permalink 7:39 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@garyruskin #Monsanto acts like it has a lot to hide. It had a 20-page #PR plan on how to “minimize impact of” and “minimize media coverage and publicity of” @careygillam’s book Whitewash, about Monsanto, #glyphosate and #Roundup.   Permalink 3:01 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I’ve blocked trolls on both sides.   Permalink 2:39 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Charles Murray is considered a Galileo of the racisticists, someone who provides scientific truths. He is just an intellectual fraud. These mistakes are on a SINGLE page in his book.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:56 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman is the #1 BS buster in social science.   Permalink 12:03 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Review on Amazon. If you are going to be a BS vendor, make sure to not combine it with “race realism” and eugenics.   Permalink 9:47 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@RyanHoliday “You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.” Nassim Taleb Permalink 8:00 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You are wasting time arguing about universal computation/Touring machines with the Quilletebeciles neonazis who interpretet as a blank slate argument. The Quilettebeciles don’t even get that you may bolster their argument since in practice there is a yuuge diff betw processors! Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore journos: they can’t property scale moves, put them in perspective. The SP500 is still up >12% on the year. #SkinintheGame: Have to reveal I’ve been short HLF for more than a year. Fear of missing an opportunity, just in case Ackman turns out to be ultimately right. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@ArtOrthodox Dormition of the Theotokos #DormitionoftheTheotokos #JesusChrist #Theotokos #MotherofGod #Saints #byzantineorthodoxart #byzantine #icons #paintings #art #history #artwork #artworks Permalink 4:19 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@byzantinepower Aspirations of this account: – To extol the spiritual power of Orthodoxy & our ability to create Byz 2.0 Tendencies: – Venice bashing – HRE bashing – mocking idiots – foodpoasting Permalink 3:41 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@sf_LPSP You misunderstand and underestimate Taleb if you think this is any kind of outlierish or burdensome “axe to grind”, or even particularly personal. Taleb’s bread and butter- or rather olive oil- is lopping down logs of bullshit, and the axe is sharp for all comers. Permalink 4:09 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Very safe: I stopped in 2010 having dinners with social scientists.   Permalink 1:54 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) You can be fooled by people, and you can be fooled by fields. For instance I was fooled by behavioral economics… Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Why universality trumps IQ by @trishankkarthik   Permalink 10:57 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Classifying psychology as “science” reminds me of the Reagan Administration’s classification of Ketchup in school cafeterias as “vegetable”. We need to declassify. Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Asymmetry of BS detector: Friends, there have been many situations where I thought someone was solid, then realized I was mistaken as he turned out to be a bullshitter (e.g. NateS,PT,SP…) Can’t find reverse mistake: pple I thought were bullshitters but turned out to be solid. Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Anyone saying 17 sigmas about Argentina has a problem. Permalink 3:17 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos And basically read everything from @nntaleb – His sometimes excessive hostility toward obnoxious academia aside, it’s hard for me to disparage him as he reminds me of every fucking Greek uncle I loved. When that phenotype smells bullshit, they tend to be brutal…and hilarious. Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Dear @WolframResearch, what’s the symbol for the MERVAL? Trying to get data …for obvious reasons. Thanks! Permalink 1:51 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@gmax1mum Am I the only one that wants a full volume expansion of this section of Skin in the Game? @nntaleb Permalink 1:39 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You should prevent Classic Liberalism from being exploited by the eugenists-“race realists” using it from cover for the Sinister agenda, particularly when they use science. Expurgate. Be tough. Liberty doesn’t entail genetic ranking.   Permalink 9:32 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@Firefly_fan Evolution of “Incerto” by @nntaleb (image 1 and 2). Some “affective” anecdote: the smell of black & golden version is very appealling for my hedonic perspective. It seems alive Permalink 9:26 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Erudition is whatever is not academic in its acquisition and dispensation. In other words, lively, playful, useful, and nonnerdy.   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@ektrit Explaining how Christianity spread when 99.9% of people were illiterate, it comes to mind that Taleb @nntaleb cannot be understood unless Erudition is understood. Permalink 7:57 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What does a “(basic) law” mean in economics? Some “laws” seem to be empirical, others normative, some deduced from some arbitrary “principle”, a few pulled out of a hat. Permalink 7:06 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@thebigboulard Via Negativa et Antifragile appliqués à l’IT et à la Transformation digitale   via @lemagit @philipducellier @nntaleb Permalink 2:55 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Things are spiraling downward much, much faster than I thought. (This deleted tweet by Lehman Brothers was verified on Google cache; I thought it was a spoof). Next target? Some monstrous BS vending outfit I haven’t targeted yet. Permalink 6:28 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@normonics No. Life is not a game. A game has explicit rules, constraints, win-states. Life does not. At best, implicit ones, but even then not static, not a given. The IQ obsessed have mistaken their little contrived game world with big messy reality.   Permalink 4:01 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@MKM_Abdul Meanwhile, a Black Swan quietly landed on Argentina’s stock market with a 48% one-day drop.   Permalink 2:29 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila! Merci bien. Permalink 12:35 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla’s def. + stupid: someone who inflicts costs on others while not bringing benefits to himself/herself, even possibly incurring great costs. + bandit: inflicts costs on others but at some benefits to himself/herself. The stupid is vaaaaastly more dangerous than the bandit. Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb   (Je n’arrive pas a acheter l’article) Permalink 11:48 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are always some subtle differences between a book and the corresponding film, owing to the requirements of the medium.   Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words: Cipolla’s 2nd Law: there is a ratio \sigma of stupid people, in all professions/groups/periods. My Q: is it like econ. inequality, same ratio, but different people? If you came back in 10 y, \sigma has new people (i.e ergodic). Does the stupid survive in group? Permalink 10:22 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Writing a foreword to The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by Cippola: You always underestimate for any time/profession # of incompetent pple. Law: No matter how incompetent an editor is, there will be a pool of readers even more stupid who won’t notice. Q: is stupidity ergodic?   Permalink 9:56 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@DonkeyJawPosse Walking via ⁦@nntaleb⁩ Permalink 6:08 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You hit on something: collective intelligence (groups) is orthogonal to individual ones because of scale transformation. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@MarekADochnal @nntaleb never disappoints in fighting BS in its every living form. But even he isn’t iPhone-proof: see Murrat in his twit: the hybrid of Murray and Marshal Murat, King of Naples Permalink 4:21 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Murray also manages to BS about mathematics. A scholar! Permalink 3:50 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Methods of the loci. If you want to remember math stuff, carry a durable physical notebook with standard theorems/graphs. You will associate the equation with a physical page. Permalink 3:07 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There is a book by the Russian psychologist Luria about a prodigy who could remember tons. He mentally used maps 2D ->3D where each object to remember would be placed. When I look at a physical book in my library, I remember the contents! Even more when I hold it in my hands. Permalink 2:43 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Harder to remember stuff read on a screen. Needs 1 more dimension.   Permalink 2:23 AM – 12 Aug 2019

Murray, Psychology, Quillette, Jesuits, Monsanto, Peterson, Harris, Silver, IQ Eugenics, Wahabis, Tulsi, Lehmann | Twitter

@nntaleb Nordic supremacy or North Atlantic supremacy (i.e. Northen Europe). Not Western. They don’t have monopoly of the “West”.   Permalink 3:21 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Note: I do not disrespect psychologists because I don’t know their works. It is precisely BECAUSE I read their crap. Between 2002 and 2005½ I read >200 psychology books and took notes. (Here 3 books by Pinker @sapinker who claims I didn’t read his junk) Permalink 3:18 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t that the Quillette pple are very, very incompetent. The problem is that the fans and followers are also very, very stupid.   Permalink 7:35 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many claims are so viciously false… Babylonians, Chinese, and Indians had explicit logical systems. Permalink 5:52 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb عيد مبارك Permalink 5:40 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I will definitely pay @joelwatsonfish to nitpick my manuscripts for mistakes (fellow has been trying to take revenge for Quillette). Payoff is yuuge if 1 in 10 of his mistakes turns out to actually be mistake.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Eid Mubarak to all. Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire. Constantinople continued the Roman empire. Same usurpation with the EU.   Permalink 2:12 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Whether the list was drawn by geography or ethnity, 15-18 mistakes. Murray is as ignorant in the humanities as he is in statistics. Permalink 2:04 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My father once told me: “Never antagonize Jesuits; their erudition is so wide and so deep they know things you’ll never suspect they know.” Permalink 11:42 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb More mistakes (total 18): Zeno of Elea was from Campania, S. of Naples. I am embarrassed I did not detect it at first reading. Permalink 11:30 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Further, a classical Greek would be furious to become part of this “West” to give a pedigree to Mountebank Murray’s ancestors & justify their “genetics” theories. Greeks were Meds, first and last and closer to Persia/Mesopotamia where the action was. Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Averroes, like Maimonides was born in Cordoba. Try to call him “Spanish”, Westerner! Some elementary mistakes anyone with intellect would detect: Philo Judaeus ‘The Jew” would be… Greek? Permalink 11:17 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I debated Murrat and noted that for a “historian” he was woefully lacking in erudition. His definition of the “West” = whatever became successful. He didn’t read r Greek & misunderstood Herodotus. Was told to take it easy on him bec. “libertarian”   Permalink 11:00 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mountebank race monger Charles Murray @charlesmurray has a list of “Human Accomplishments” by “Westerners” He has 15 mistakes on a single page! Tertullian was Berber Saadia was Bagdadi/Egyptian AlKindi was Arabian Poseidonius was Syrian Mani was Persian Porphyrius Phoenician Permalink 10:49 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I prefer the company of people who make me smile to those who make me laugh. Permalink 9:12 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK. Conspiracy perhaps. But never never underestimate incompetence. Permalink 7:14 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Never assume conspiracy when the vastly more obvious explanation should be incompetence.   Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The “Harvard Prof” has, statistically, < 25% chance of being right (less since Harvard profs higher % chronically wrong). A practice that survived millennia across populations that themselves survived has >.999 of being safe. Nature is robust statistically. #Lindy #Antifragile   Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@Monsantobuster Quillette promotes “IQ-denial=science denial”, “refusal of scientific racism=refusal of science”. Like Monsanto w/glyphosate=science Claire Lehman herself said her mission is to defend inherited genetic differences in intelligence all the while denying they are into RACISM. Permalink 3:23 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People loooooove the idea of BS busting. Until they find out that they are the ones being busted. Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie I’m super excited about the results in this paper – they solved a problem that drew me into finance in the late 1990s. Can’t wait to play around the results over the next few weeks.   Permalink 12:36 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Posted on ArXiv the paper on tail option pricing & shopping for a journal.   6th Journal pub in 2019! PS- Peer-review of technical work is often necessary but never sufficient (can be a cover for psych BS). It is not necessary if the proof is in the doc. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. ” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s campaign against U.S. Right to Know: key themes and documents via @USRightToKnow   Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@NonMeek “Monsanto paid Google to promote search results for “Monsanto Glyphosate Carey Gillam” that criticized her work.” This is disturbing. Permalink 5:51 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Revealed: how Monsanto’s ‘intelligence center’ targeted journalists and activists [SUCH AS YOURS TRULY]   Permalink 5:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@Yazanator Joe Norman is doing amazing work with Nassim Taleb exposing the racist @Quillette agenda of fraudulent IQ superiority in different races and eugenics. Give the guy a follow, he also talks a lot about Complexity Science which is interesting.   Permalink 4:23 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PDF is (and will remain) freely available, @xtsop.   Permalink 4:05 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I myself lie about my age. For 20 years I have been using 1924 as a birthdate with journalists, people who don’t know how to mind their own business, and on social media. I shd be a centenarian before finishing the 2nd Technical Volume.   Permalink 7:38 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Connecting the INCERTO to various research traditions Permalink 4:00 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What I found disgusting about Peterson is that he made yuuuge $$$ from charity from kids who made much much less than he did. Like TV evangelists of the old days. Then I blocked him. Is Claire “Lehman Brothers” still shouting that she is not into a neoNazi eugenics agenda?   Permalink 2:59 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@GuillPaquet You might be stacking sats but we at @BullBitcoin_ are stacking @nntaleb’s #Incerto Head of investments : @francispouliot_ Permalink 2:13 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I apologize. It was the Swiss. Permalink 10:58 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila, the Germans like combative rigor vs BS.   Permalink 9:42 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Don’t read; reread.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaign against yours truly (1500 letters to the university plus all manner of negative comments on social media).   Permalink 4:49 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@pauld198 that was a big mistake – you should have followed NNT’s advice ” don’t talk science with non-scientists” Permalink 10:41 PM – 6 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In my book Dynamic Hedging I show arbitrage bounds for correlations, a tutorial. We knew correlations were not transitive but the bounds were arbitrages. Permalink 11:17 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Terry Tao has a nice (but very technical write-up) on the transitivity of correlation.   Permalink 11:13 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ. Here is another statistical error by IQ-Eugenists. Show the magnitude of the error (bounds on correlation) Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb RWRI has evolved into a scalable BS busting operation. All you need to do in life and business is spot BS; the rest takes care of itself.   Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another example of why you cannot use statistical formulas without knowing probability. Majority of neuroscience papers miscalculate significance. Permalink 7:59 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s …   via @YouTube Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My IQ piece: “To do well in life one needs to think independently. And one has to be a lunatic (or a psychologist) to believe that a standardized test will reveal independent thinking.” Edgar Morin (born Nahum) is a smart fellow.   Permalink 6:18 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@DaveGulimlim “My idea of the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.” Permalink 11:58 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I’ve never had a problem with people who disagree with me, contradict me or find mistakes. I just cannnnnnnnnnnot take BS. Yuuuuge allergy to BS.   Permalink 3:44 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You know charlatan Sam Harris is lying because superstitious Eastern Mediterraneans never pass the salt (I am aggressively superstitious). Plus he offered to “bury the hatchet” and wrote this when I told him to f*** off. Permalink 8:01 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@sean_a_mcclure Permalink 7:35 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I need to buy mosquito repellent spray; but I am naturally a repellent to IYIs. They feel they are choking in my presence as I produced fumes only they can detect. 3 minutes and they are gone. Just consider the reaction of BSvendor Sam Harris Permalink 6:46 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@VergilDen If Taleb calls you out on Twitter, best to meet with him privately to understand his position, lest you create a record on Twitter of your ignorance. Taleb knows the position of his opponents better than his opponents. Permalink 6:34 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those in interested in my fight with Nate Silver, a sequel –except that it got more technical.   Permalink 3:57 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The story with Nate Silver has another episode. Aubrey Clayton wrote to the journal in defense of Silver claiming flaws with my election paper.   And I respond in the journal.   Permalink 2:16 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb We stopped responding when Lehman used the Blank Slate which is a straw man (almost noboby believes in the Blank Slate). Quillette’s followers might be as stupid as the editors (they are) & cheered; but it is the defense by Lehman that confirmed the sinister racial agenda! Permalink 1:40 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Geneticists (this smart fellow) seem on same side of the IQ debate. But they miss a potent functional argument x-not- f(x). IQ could be as heritable as height. But the function of IQ, f(x), performance, is 1 correlation^2 removed (& is small). Yuuge!   Permalink 1:29 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@financequant Trees protected against wind tend to fall over prematurely. Thus, trees gain from such disorder and stress. We need a good name for this. Anti-fragile, perhaps? @nntaleb   Permalink 11:12 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Hell is to care about it.   Permalink 10:06 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Correction: maximum .12 of the Variance according to THEIR OWN research (the heritability metric, Falconer’s “h-square” is hard to map to standard variance). For me, because of adjustments, still <.02 Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #goldfinger #universalexports #cliffhanger Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Today I received the royalty statement of “Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You” (it is a book about uncertainty and the role of luck) and remembered when Nassim visited us at INSEAD to help us promote the book. It is ten years since then and we all look so young. @nntaleb Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@normonics What this says is that on the most charitable read, the VAST MAJORITY of the phenomena in question are left unexplained, while the narratives being spun would have you believe we have a clear picture as to what is going on with “intelligence” and “heritability of intelligence”   Permalink 5:05 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The IQ Eugenics “debate” is over, using psych’s own results. Best correlation psychs report IQ-performance (milit)=.5 (explains 25% of variance w/o my own adjustments). Heritability of IQ scores, again 25% of var. So for THEM genetics explains .06 of variance in BEST. for me:<.02   Permalink 4:03 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Food debasement (identical to currencies) Non-artisanal corporations w/MBA managers start substituting products progressively that imperceptibly worsen the product, until blowup. You start w/lemonade, then sell what passes for lemonade. Same as bankers hiding risk for a bonus. Permalink 3:44 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@RaniaKhalek The hostility on display from the anchor in this interview shows that they hate Tulsi Gabbard no matter what she says, and they hate her for her foreign policy views that antagonize against war   Permalink 2:34 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I mean sunflower oil not corn oil in France Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that, except for sushi bars, one cannot eat out without inspecting the kitchen. Even “olive oil” is often debased, like a currency, with seed oil. We need a “seed oil detector” very badly. Permalink 2:02 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just came back from East Med where one can escape seed oil. Avoiding France: + France: heavily marketing corn oil as “healthy” solution. Now invading French cooking replacing butter/lard. Air France’s olive oil is 66% corn oil! + Belgium: Fries no longer w/tallow, but seed oil.   Permalink 1:52 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “If you want people to buy a book, tell them it is overrated”. Bed of Procrustes Permalink 5:11 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@john_santin Just reading the book now, so let’s see if I’ve got this right . . . Fragile = Complaining about enemies Robust = Not having enemies Antifragile = Having enemies that complain about you Did I get it? What am I missing if not? Permalink 5:01 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant The MSM is troubled. CNN averages an audience of ~700K. This number is beaten by a fair number #youtube accounts (I’m talking about those with serious content.) which are produced by tiny staffs. There are over 2M people paying to support content providers on Patreon. 1/2 Permalink 4:12 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant If the Democrats put up Tulsi Gabbard for president they would win the White House. I would certainly vote for her. Alas, they will put up someone like Warren or, much worse, Sanders and commit political suicide. Forcing me again to vote for some third party candidate again. Permalink 1:41 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We were all lied to. We were told that Saddam had WMD, was working w/ Al Qaeda & that this posed a threat to the American people. But not only have we not gone after Al Qaeda, they are stronger than they were on 9/11 #TULSI2020 #DemDebate   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:18 AM – 1 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words if as @stuartjrichie claims IQ tests correlate at .8, you have a quite large uncertainty about your own IQ hence you should propagate to the performance. The overall correlation is not unconditional. Permalink 9:32 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So psychologist @stuartjrichie writes a book on IQ. In it he reveals that your own IQ tests correlate at .8— every time you take the test. He didn’t realize the need to discount accordingly correlations IQ-performance by devastating amounts. Psychology is astrology. Permalink 8:57 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@RandPaul I’m headed to the floor soon to speak on this budget “deal.” You would think in an era of renewed trillion-dollar budgets, in an era of $22 trillion debts, you would think SOMEONE in this body or in this town would make a deal to CUT spending. Watch here:   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb One lesson to everyone about #Antifragile and not just to “racemonger Claire” @clairlemon: Never claim to be antifragile and play victim. Never. Gabish?   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@CliffordAsness I’m in the minority I think, but out of so much great work I think this is one of ⁦@nntaleb⁩’s most subtle and important. Perfectly describes the social media veto given to a tiny minority. And subtly one of biggest threats to liberty.   Permalink 5:27 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@hedging_reality Love the fact that @nntaleb clearly thinks for himself (understatement) and could not care any f*cking less wether one agrees with or approves of his positions, thoughts, or facts.   Permalink 9:57 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fucking moron it’s not a fight: it’s watching her do self-flagellation, which gets painful once it starts eliciting commiseration. Permalink 8:50 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction.” – Nassim Taleb #progress Permalink 7:58 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@AaronAllisonCPA Celebrating my birthday with a little present to myself… Incerto, deluxe edition. Beautiful. @nntaleb Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fundamental Risk Asymmetry: “No that’s too risky” & “I don’t know” are effectively the same statement. (see #Antifragile). Why? Because if I don’t know whether the plane/the food/the technology is safe or not, I don’t ride in it. Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb She is so clueless and stressed out you need to take it easy on her.   Permalink 9:30 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster People who still have doubt that @clairlemon is into what Feynman calls “cargo cult”, the name for “scientism”. Prof Taleb is right you need to go to school finish your degrees and study something.   Permalink 8:59 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #fightthefed #goldfinger Permalink 6:03 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No   Permalink 4:38 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Heraklius wasted energy on the Persians his victory was Pyrrhic. It weakened him.   Permalink 2:19 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At least two Roman emperors were either killed or captured by the Persians on that 700 year long Persian war. Who is the second?   Permalink 2:04 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At the request on Quillette followers I took an IQ test. Guess my score: Permalink 1:00 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Not counting Cyrus’ invasion of Babylon and the Levant: he defeated the Babylonians freed the Jews and brought them back home. Permalink 12:51 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The Iranian waged a 800 year war ag Romans. The Iranian frontier bankrupted Byzantium and led to the Arab invasion. Same with the Ottomans. Border stayed firm. The mistake everyone makes is to underestimate how stubborn Persia is   Permalink 12:22 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is turning out to be a farce. For @clairlemon correlation and estimation theory should be outside mathematics. Off to meet @spyrosmakrid in Athens to tawk about the M5 competition.   Permalink 9:42 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Turned out these ladies are in the business of ML for sending SP500 trading orders to a hedge fund either in Italy or in Texas.   Permalink 7:26 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster What Claire Lehman, dropout from a Masters in Forensic Psychology calls “garbled nonsense” of Prof. Taleb is called in some circles: MATHEMATICS.   Permalink 7:23 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Peterson a bon vivant? Part of the reason I blocked Peterson is because of his dullness.   Permalink 7:11 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I block/mute people when I have no more use for them, nothing to learn from their arguments: Jordan Peterson, Impostor Molyneux, Mountebank Charles Murray, RacePromoter @clairlemon Not Sailer, Cochran, etc. Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Actually worse than I claimed.   Permalink 10:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes the book I use for entropy   Permalink 9:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The owners of my favorite squid ink place, Kelly’s in Beirut, said they refuse to serve squid ink out of season. Other restaurants have it frozen from the winter. Permalink 9:14 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Meta-IQ test: you are given a sequence: 2, 4, 8, 16, … what is the next item? Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Taking 3 semesters off from teaching at NYU, officially to use freed time to “study Greek-Latin-Aramaic”. Will return in the Spring of 2021 with a course of informational entropy. Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@aldertrack In Greek κ will be pronounced like a G when it follows a ν, so Θα πάω στην Καλαμάτα is pronounced as Tha pao steen Galamata Permalink 7:13 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The discussion with Quillette and “Race Supremacy Claire” @clairlemon has ended with this.   Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@UntergrundmannG Taleb has an updated post up at medium that takes care of most of this. You could take the time to weigh that in against this all over again. And if you come back here in a few days, I may have a post up about how this is a trivial misunderstanding of NNT’s case. Quantitatively. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Was getting hate tweets from Quillette clients at a rate of 1 per min, many using racial epithets to claim that @clairlemon is not into neoNazi agenda. Slowed down to about 10/min. Next, w/@normonics, preparing a formal technical paper (complex systems) abt the IQ fraud. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correctio: predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli. Permalink 6:29 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Ol_Wall There’s a difference between something having a genetic component and proving / publishing based on it. Of course there’s a genetic component to behaviour!! That doesn’t mean we can reliably know what that is – or should publish those shaky claims. Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Extrrrrrremely impressed with the sophistication of these machine-learning researchers in the Sunni enclave of Tripoli, Lebanon. They know the problems with distance metrics inside out. They are working to produce entropy maps. Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@EbbcMunich Our session last Tuesday was a great workshop based on Antifragile by @nntaleb For more info see   Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So Quillette’s IQ “scientific” racism is more scientific than the Nazi’s racism/racial superiority theories?   Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Is @clairlemon still denying that her Quillete project is into a neo-Nazi “scientific” racism (“race realism”) agenda? Permalink 5:08 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@scmarco69 Cf cet article technique de Taleb:   qui démontre que toute utilisation du QI dans le monde réel est à peu près vouée à l’échec. Permalink 4:49 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Extrachelle Food of the Gods, literally.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Intelligence is WAY too important and essential for what it means to be human to cede to the low-dimensional Pinker-style quillette IQ pseudointellectuals Permalink 6:04 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@normonics Why is @nntaleb calling @Quillette promotion of race science via IQ a neo-nazi agenda? Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No.   Permalink 10:47 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb He is hired. His thread explains much of my position on IQ research. Add that 1) I don’t deny heritability of *something* in non-feedback linear environments, 2) Higher dimensions are not tractable (curse of dimensionality) & #Quilletteidiots don’t get it   Permalink 10:32 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@HenryJOncology #skininthegame @nntaleb tells a more important issue: no one except #patients benefit from using hard endpoints that result in trial failure. Everyone else benefits with a positive result in USA. Perverse incentives to create bad trials with weak endpoints. @VincentRK   Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@EricTopol He’s my new friend! Thanks @JpMikhaiel for your perceptive take, especially for bringing in @nntaleb’s important work. And kudos @kevinmd for hosting a site that gives medical students the chance to get their views out   Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DaveGulimlim Reading Antifragile by @nntaleb tonight. I’m about to reach halfway and the insights are staggering. This might be one of the most influential books for me this year. “I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.” href=””> 7:35 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I have always fought those who accuse others Nazism & eugenics. So far I’ve made one single accusation of neo-Nazi agenda: @clairlemon & the broad @Quillette crowd, for their closet promotion of pseudoscientific ideas about IQ, race, etc., under cover of defense of free-speech.   Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Perhaps before lecturing people about “understanding reality”, Ms. Lehmann should make some effort in getting schooling in elementary statistics.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@ReadTrying The problem with Taleb isnt that he’s an asshole. He is an asshole. The problem with Taleb is that he’s an asshole and he’s right. Permalink 6:09 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap I’ve been getting nonstop from Quilette followers. 5:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DA_Stockman Tulsi Gabbard’s Suit Against Google Is A Double Plus Good   Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Answer @SamuelGWalters. For all x>0. Now the left side? 3:57 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb How many fucking times do I have to repeat that I have public tutorial lectures on probability?   Permalink 3:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Math Problem du jour: Can you make the right side tighter?   Permalink 3:26 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I said Greek not just Orthodox because of a cluster of inherited Byzantine stuff: the architecture (the dome is Byzantine), the prayer (initial Greek prayer included prostration), etc. Permalink 2:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb To continue the thread. Lehman is a fraud, & not smart enough to be caught.   Permalink 2:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Nationalists, falsely accused of racism, hold “all children are equal but each under obligation to give preference to their own” @Quilette’s full neo-Nazi approach: “these people are genetically inferior; let us find the science ( and fake defense of free speech) to back it up” Permalink 1:56 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb A nonvote for the official democrat will effectively be a half-vote for Trump. Gabish? Permalink 1:28 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those who doubt the Greek Orthodox origin of the female veil (Iranian style)… Church in Amioun. 12:36 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb My speculation that there will be a growing closet Trump support in the far left is getting more and more confirmation.   Permalink 3:00 PM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes I know I am rude by calling IQ people imbeciles (which they are). But they are classifying entire populations as idiots. People who already have enough problems. I am going to upset the “Fake free-speech” @Quillette crowd & “Klueeeeless Claire” @clairlemon a bit more. Permalink 9:36 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb BTّW for those who want to see my thingy with IQ, here is the paper, heading towards the half a million readers.   Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Klueless Claire” Lehman, @clairlemon you are so kluuuuless abt Popper/falsification it’s not even funny. Statistical claims in psych are not testable in the Popperian sense, & if they are, can be easily falsified by showing the metric is uninformative.   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Also impossible to teach charlatans that “handwaving” means exactly what THEY do for a living. @clairlemon should stop Quillette, and take a study sabbatical (5-10 years) to do some elementary statistics, data science, etc., before uttering such verbiage.   Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Impossible to teach charlatans the very notion that SCIENCE=RIGOR, little else.   Permalink 4:44 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@oskarth Spotted in Taiwan in traditional Chinese! Works for asymmetrical one arm overhead presses too. 4:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Friends, any idea how to make @wolfram Mathematica data synchronous? One single missing date makes comparisons very hard. 4:14 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those into some math, here is why social scientists don’t seem to know what correlation means.   Permalink 3:53 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Finally submitted to journal my paper showing psychological research on forecasting is largely fiction. (Includes @Ptetlock’s superforekast not even mentioned in paper)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:46 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I am not discounting heredity. But the research extending it to such matters as “intelligence” is largely fraud.   Permalink 3:37 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Behavioral genetics is largely an intellectual fraud. Resisting promoting them, @clairlemon, even if you like their message.   Permalink 3:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@trishankkarthik First impressions on the @SS_strength seminar: There are a lot of similarities between @CoachRippetoe and @nntaleb: they both say what they like fearlessly, do not suffer BS gladly (can tell by passionate anger), and are funny as hell while delivering powerful truths Permalink 9:24 PM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Philological coincidences, 1 In French, crier is to shout, in English (primarily) to shed tears. In Lebanese, 3ayyet is to shout, in Egyptian 3ayyat is to shed tears. Permalink 3:50 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Lamma 7ada bi 2llak lbet beytak, bi2akkidlak inno hayda mush baytak. Permalink 3:40 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principal benefit of Mathematica, as @financequant figured out, is that everything is precisely defined. Mathematical papers often have shortcuts or fuzzy definitions (particularly when dealing with vectors and matrices); @Wolfram Mathematica has to be exact. Permalink 2:44 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We respond to Clayton’s comment on my paper in defense of “Klueless Nate” Silver. Permalink 1:23 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The problem is not babbling journalists. The problem is that the entire intelligentsia has been saying the same crap. Commentary on the events of the Trump presidency provide the best test of mental faculties.   Permalink 4:13 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb James @drjamesdinic is figuring out something central. What do ALL elements of this list have in common? These are ULTRA MODERN, not #Lindy. Worse than sugar: seed oils touted as “healthy”(olive/avoc./cocon. oils are not seed oils). And seed oils are everywhere in restaurants.   Permalink 3:59 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@CarstenBKK Here is @nntaleb et. al. take on climate change. I can’t phrase it any better:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principle of revelation of preferences (#skininthegame) is what people do, where people go, how they vote with their feet, not what’s published some paper with pictures.   Permalink 1:56 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@lhamtil Whenever people suggest my sector & industry analysis is tired, I refer them to this passage by @nntaleb Permalink 1:18 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Breaking: Tulsi sues Google for interference and manipulation!   Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard 2/3 – #Google controls 88% of internet search in the US — giving it control over our access to information. Google’s arbitrary suspension of the account of a presidential candidate should be of concern to all Americans.   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard TULSI2020: In the hours following the 1st debate, while millions of Americans searched for info about Tulsi, Google suspended her search ad account w/o explanation. It is vital to our democracy that big tech companies can’t affect the outcome of elections   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@paulportesi Thread by @nntaleb: “1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who hasr a living. 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school pr []”   Permalink 7:10 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Invent a probability distribution that’s neither thin nor fat tailed. [Jetlag in Northern Phoenicia] Permalink 4:07 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) I asked Ridley for tail risk analysis for GMO crops. He showed a few statistically lame papers showing “benefits”, and some scientism. And if there is no tail risk analysis it’s because GMO peddlers do not even know what tail risk means.   Permalink 3:11 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Drove to Ehden from the coast. Tallied the names of villages on the way. Not only there was NOT a single village with Arab name, but there were: +Balamand (Belmont, Crusader) +Rushdebbin (Roche des Pins, Crusader) +Kousba (my mother’s) (Cuspa, Roman) Stop the Arabist fraud. Permalink 2:57 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Boris Johnson’s position on GMOs/biotech which effectively centralize and delocalize crops (puts nature in the hands of technocorps) is opposite to his position on Brexit which effectively localist & against socioeconomic centralization (puts Britain in the hands of technocrats)! Permalink 2:50 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@davidsarac I am getting to appreciate how highly educated people are the most dangerous thing on the planet. In a same way how excess of order produces evil, too much exposure to academic environment produces retardation of mental faculties @normonics @nntaleb @GreenRupertRead   Permalink 12:12 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@Petepicasso10 Intellectuals yet idiots like @nntaleb would say.   Permalink 7:49 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ron Paul & @DanielLMcAdams are my filter in the middle of the noise.   Permalink 1:40 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correction: I meant I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than agree with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? Permalink 11:38 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is certain that Ms @RaniaKhalek has no notion of what a fallacy means. The problem isn’t convincing her & other intellectual rejects in her group, but making people with brains are aware of these fraudulent slogans thrown at them.   Permalink 9:34 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Started to ship   Permalink 6:57 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@ggreenwald It’s also bizarre to watch House Democrats constantly herald Mueller’s career as one of great “moral rectitude.” Does this little episode just not count at all? Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish?   Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mistakes: In Lebanese, l not el; 3arabiyyé not siyyara. But good effort. Permalink 2:03 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mathematica is addictive and makes math addictive.   Permalink 2:01 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman’s discussion with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about sexism, racism and retrospective bigoteering in the U.S. Declaration of Independence   Permalink 2:24 PM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We are clearly winning. The geopolitical state can no longer control the language. Bottom up wins in the age of social media.   Permalink 10:05 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If someone acts like a shill, odds are he/she is a shill. (Dan Gardner busted)   Permalink 4:40 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb CNN, the designation “congresswoman of color” is itself racist. Permalink 7:23 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) Never trust a journalist unless she’s your mother.   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) Thomas “the Chin” Friedman…   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Virtue is the difference between what you do in public and what you do in private. Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I finally got that Bolton doesn’t exist as an advisor; he is at best a negotiation tool. He is just someone who barks very loud and incoherently so Trump can make a deal, if possible.   Permalink 12:51 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Done with the paper on forecasting, debunking the BS by “Phil the rat” Tetlock @ptetlock. Addresses some problems with @robinhanson and his claims about prediction markets.   Permalink 12:18 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #goldfinger Permalink 7:24 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You don’t need mathematics to be rigorous; you can achieve formalism w/legal documents, where everything is precisely defined. Contracts & codes from Theodosius to Cambaceres→elimination of VERBALISM from documents. I learned that w/financial term sheets. Everything is mapped. Permalink 6:19 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Verbalism, a general definition. Does it supercede all other “fallacies” in critical thinking made in intellectual discourse? Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@jimmy_wales Is there a way to get back to the old twitter interface? Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “You may eventually forgive and befriend someone who harmed you, never someone who bored you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:11 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Pharma is better at invending diseases for its existing treatments, than treatments for existing diseases” Bed of Procrustes   Permalink 1:49 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event? Wittgenstein’s Ruler   Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You can only disagree with people who are wrong, not those who are “not even wrong”. When you engage a charlatan (as with @snowded for the above derivations) he represents your debunking his fallacies for a “disagreement”. Permalink 7:51 AM – 21 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:07 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Doesn’t look like your regular IT professional. At 73.   Permalink 5:21 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@financequant Sigh… If it NEVER works then why?   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This has been on for 5 years, @Adam_Bat   Permalink 11:22 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:10 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb God made mathematics so you can tell me where I am wrong; the fragility of a derivation is transparent for all to see. Formalism allows the slightest nonsense to show. Some econs/psychs produce obscure equations to hide nonsense. They get caught: you can debunk using math! Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, This is my precise definitions for Fragility, Robustness, & Antifragility. The paper is here. This will be part of the 2nd vol of the Technical Incerto (Includes #Lindy) called: “Fragility Risk and Convexity”. (link:  )   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:14 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Science is not about authority, consensus, and verbalisms, but proofs and derivations. Permalink 3:42 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Snowden, I said it before: you are a handwaving bullshitter. Show us some mathematical formalism if you can or shut the fuck up. Permalink 3:37 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I meant squatting closer to your max: when you are in the lower position. Permalink 2:07 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It’s there. Just a small suggestion: perhaps you should read the book before lecktschuring its author. Permalink 1:21 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) This is exactly why academic tests select for those nerdy enough be motivated during the test; no translation to mental powers in real life. 2) @CoachRippetoe reports the same “panic” while deadlifting close to your max: you need to stand up, failure is no option.   Permalink 12:02 PM – 19 Jul 2019