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IQ, Pinker, Jordan Peterson, Statistics, FRACTAL LOCALISM, Psychology, Tetlock, Caplan, Edward Said, Peter Francopan, Julia Galef, Tulsi Gabbard | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books

@nntaleb N7na ldiaspora min faddél latiné. Bass l3alam juwwa bigakkro gheir shi la2annon t3awwado. Wkamén l Yiddish huwwé Ilmané maktub bil 7arf l 3brané nafsl abjadiyyé. Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/gRJ8QYIrxP Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 3am fakkér ista3mél l7arf l3arabé lal né0-kn3ané. Lésh? La2anno fina shwayy shwayy nbay3éd 3annon, mush fard ddarbé –ma3 inno l7arf l latiné a2rab 3a 7akiyna. Wma ninsa 2nno l7arf l3arabé asslo fini2é kamen! Shu ra2ykon? Permalink 2:24 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Orthodoxy reposes on the notion that a) G-d had to become man to suffer and have skin in the game and, more centrally for Orthodoxy, b) Man can become G-d via a merger called theosis BECAUSE G-d had skin in the game: Αὐτὸς γὰρ ἐνηνθρώπησεν, ἵνα ἡμεῖς θεοποιηθῶμεν Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@ektrit In Orthodox Theology, humans are higher than angels and higher than all other creatures of God, precisely because God had “skin in the game” by having One Person of the Holy Trinity, Christ, assuming a PERFECT human body. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1104141492627611655   Permalink 2:14 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Different mafia: without a sense of loyalty, honor and the ironclad committment to deliver on their promises. https://twitter.com/johnnysportcoat/status/1104140929978589189?s=21   Permalink 2:13 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally, someone who (along with @DrMichaelBonner ) understood Skin in the Game. It makes humans superior to gods. https://twitter.com/giles_fraser/status/1104005211155283968   Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Cosa Nostra American branch, that is. Permalink 11:21 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The mafia has effectively ended. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-metro-mob-boss-carmine-persico-dies-in-prison-20190307-story.html   Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@giles_fraser No one should be too big to fail. Not even God. ⁦@nntaleb⁩ Why God needs skin in the game – UnHerd https://unherd.com/2019/03/why-god-needs-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb …and I regretted it. It wasn’t paella at all, squid ink was dry… Permalink 3:53 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink paella in, of all places, Ralleigh-Durham. pic.twitter.com/DQK1DcwZeB Permalink 4:55 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb And it has nothing to do with the video. Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@RustedOak Every Thursday, @senatorbraun presides over the Senate for 3 hours. Today he explicitly requested his copy of #SkinInTheGame (by @nntaleb) to read while in the big chair. pic.twitter.com/xKctNRqLyh Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Put me on the record: Jordan Peterson @jordanbpeterson is a charlatan. https://twitter.com/nufflez/status/1103735657271345158   Permalink 12:33 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends In my book on Politics, Localism I answer questions. Anything to suggest here? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ”>  pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ Permalink 12:18 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I never never never use TED-style words such as “enrich lives”. Never. Fake quote https://twitter.com/gbutrous/status/1103582034654625793   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “The only time he forgot about his short height was when he asked his accountant to read out his bank statement, something which he did multiple times a day.” (on Ehud Laniado who just passed during vanity surgery) Permalink 2:48 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM pic.twitter.com/ogO0MC4Nmi Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@VaniPalomo Skin in the game (?) @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jfcarpio/status/1103142481665892352   Permalink 9:53 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Ended up publishing with an internet startup [2000 bubble!] that gave me ½ the royalties to accept my intransigence. Bookstores hardly carried their books. Without @Amazon you would have never heard of me. The internet startup went predictably bust. Got the rights back. Permalink 8:46 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Dear unpublished author: Took me 3 years to publish the book. Editors wanted to “improve” the style, remove parables/fictional char, add charts to make it “more professional”. ~99% of publishers said ~”this book will flop”…& gave reasons. I was stubborn and uncompromising. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103044166169300994   Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Intergenerational risk management https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103073842984034304   Permalink 3:30 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@LPNational Libertarians don’t pander, we support all freedoms, all of the time. pic.twitter.com/GR9IU4HPrZ Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness is apparently a bit Lindy. The book is 18 years old cc:@paulskalas http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RSMXMuiPf5 Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Region Plot to see where lhs-rhs is negative (next) pic.twitter.com/9BjW4uSRwn Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Every single fact in the NYT is true. Every bit of news is flase. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099232862090465281   Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@LIHF_Living All the reasons why you should never take #statins, summed up neatly in one paragraph. From AF by @nntaleb .. pic.twitter.com/sm5m4h8KED Permalink 9:32 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Small workout du jour Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine pic.twitter.com/5FIq6HiMku Permalink 8:54 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists playing with regression… https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1102973930191679500   Permalink 8:49 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Statistics is hard. Very hard. https://twitter.com/KetoAurelius/status/1101848406803312640   Permalink 6:48 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Bien sur http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 5:38 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@DellAnnaLuca The fact that (almost) all degrees have the same duration regardless of the complexity of the underlying field is the best evidence that education has been built around the universities’ needs, not the students’. Permalink 12:53 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@AndrewNoymer Born #OTD, 5 March 1938. David A. Freedman (d. 2008). A major figure in statistical science from the 1960s to the first decade of this century. And a wonderful PhD mentor to me. A major inspiration in my professional life. @philipbstark @nntaleb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_A._Freedman   Permalink 12:22 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Businessman: “Almost half my income comes from one client. I need to markedly increase my business”. Answer: “If you markedly increase your business, you will do well, but half your income will still come from one client. Another client”. #SelfSimilarity #PowerLaws Permalink 10:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@Jon__air They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns). – Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 7:43 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Two solutions so far, the second is more elegant. pic.twitter.com/KGL4vVyMre Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zy2TsepKCP Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mathematical pushups dujour (Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine) pic.twitter.com/90eOU5LQzU Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychology has cranks propagandists like @SteveStuWill who: + Keep posting seemingly junk statistics that fail under scrutiny (e.g. IQ doesn’t correlate to income >40K- even at low IQ!) + Keep posing as arbiters of “pseudoscience — while psychology is largely pseudoscience. https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1102432917714685952   Permalink 3:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:36 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Greeeeat news from Lebanon: these 5 women are the pilots for the Lebanese airline. (Though it is misnamed M-E Airlines rather than what it should be, East-Mediterranean Airlines or, best, “Med Air”). pic.twitter.com/2ju0rsUDeG Permalink 1:01 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends, how about this probability-driven definition of complex systems before delving into FRACTAL LOCALISM? @yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/X5qyOHop70 Permalink 11:59 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nickgillespie Yes! @RandPaul is voting against Trump’s emergency declaration. What about @SenMikeLee? @tedcruz? @marcorubio? @CoryGardner? @BenSasse? @PatToomey? This is YOUR moment to stand up for constitutional government. Principle over party! http://reason.com/blog/2019/03/03/rand-paul-will-vote-against-trump-emerge   @EricBoehm87 @reason Permalink 11:45 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The only way you can “convince” rentseekers [bankers/academicobureaucrats] is showing them that it is in their own INTERESTS to change their mind. When against their interests, make it painful for them by 1) convincing OTHERS, 2) continuously exposing, 3) humiliating them Permalink 7:23 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@SimonDeDeo There is no such thing as a un-biased test for pattern recognition ability. (Literally, and for the same reason that Komolgorov complexity is uncomputable.) IQ tests the ability to know what the academic bureaucrat test thinks a pattern is. https://twitter.com/RustedOak/status/1102220743671271427   Permalink 7:14 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am very dumb without #SkinintheGame Some people have an energy filter. pic.twitter.com/IqY74S9nvh Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A- As I keep saying there is too high variance in IQ tests FOR THE SAME person. To include it statistically it propagates the noise in other links IQ-real worls (already too noisy). B- @SimonDeDeo also finds elsewhere that you can RAISE non-nerdish people’s IQ by offering them $. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1101889756139540481   Permalink 4:08 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@amconmag Saudi and Emirati lobbyists really don’t want the war in Yemen to end: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/can-these-senators-prevail-over-uae-saudi-lobby-for-war/   Permalink 4:00 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Any bio of Seneca will be written by a library rat who writes biographies hence can’t get people of action. Just read Seneca. https://twitter.com/ckard001/status/1101940887893016576   Permalink 2:41 PM – 2 Mar 2019

@nntaleb We did not break the mafia by being “kind” and convincing. In the presence of rent seeking, you break by breaking. https://twitter.com/brainpicker/status/1101905770466234368   Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Mar 2019

@TulsiGabbard Tulsi talks truth on wars #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com/3ad7VJySZb Permalink 1:27 PM – 1 Mar 2019

@BarbarianCap surprised no one has cc:ed @nntaleb on this comment from a Med Turk finding out he is 80% Greek DNA https://twitter.com/CursedBalkanYT/status/1100117821420437504   Permalink 9:11 PM – 28 Feb 2019

@threadreaderapp Hello, the unroll you asked for: Thread by @BenjaminGJW: “THREAD: Understanding Fractal Localism. Coined by @nntaleb, Fractal Localism is a solution Taleb gives to rising complex []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1101173932919525382.html   Have a good day. Permalink 10:49 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@BenjaminGJW @nntaleb also asks questions more thoroughly in the article this thread is based on. If you’ve made it thus far, I recommend you read it, as it futher expands on this summary I have done. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 9:54 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@ggreenwald Does US media generally now acknowledge: * Michael Cohen was never in Prague; * Trump never directly told Cohen to lie to Congress; * Cohen has no knowledge of any blackmail material Kremlin has over Trump * Cohen knows of no collusion evidence Can we now agree on these facts? Permalink 4:18 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Mr Pinker, @sapinker, does revealing satires about my work except you from answering @DrCirillo and I on the technical flaws in your book & how you manage to misrepresent Richardson’s research? It is NOT going to go away. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1100775802952708097   Permalink 10:28 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@Marcellenassif Studying the conjugation of verb to Write (ktb) in Phoenician. Fascinating pic.twitter.com/Ix3iPhscOr Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “Imperceptibly, time introduces and establishes abuses in the best institutions.” Necker. Which justifies an expiration time for institutions. pic.twitter.com/eLNPaBGMsu Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Logically, since India has ~10 times the GDP of Pakistan, not counting the latter’s yuuuge financial difficulties, and, in the presence of nuclear capabilities, there should be no war. However… https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/1100658657765683200   Permalink 12:56 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:47 PM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb So I run away from CNN and their lunatic conspiracies and I am now having drinks with friends in Moscow… what! CNN! No place to hide. pic.twitter.com/ukylOCImcz Permalink 11:34 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@salilstatistics Taleb: “..pple like @SteveStuWill try to hoodwink you w ‘evidence’ ‘statistics’ & ‘genetics'” And he poorly use Pearson’s correlation (Table 1), even as he confesses normality is violated: “3.4.. statistic is overly sensitive when observed variables are non-normally distributed” Permalink 6:05 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And this shows why you can no longer say “correlation” as it has NO meaning under nonlinearities. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This thread explains HOW pple like Steve Stewart-Williams try to hoodwink you with “evidence”, “statistics”, and “genetics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1100149502500061185   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb East Med/Anatolia/Zagros/Georgia: those who eat the same share the same genes, even when languages differ. Istanbul airport pic.twitter.com/FpbKMgWPhu Permalink 2:33 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- For wages, IQ is often an entry hurdle (via proxies) and needs to be cleaned up for circularity. Yet…. above 60K there is NO correlation between wages and IQ! pic.twitter.com/kDqgtBySVe Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Zagorski 2007, she is citing. And that’s what it shows. “If you are not a total idiot, IQ does not correlate to how rich you will get” is a more appropriate title. Psychologists are both ignorants and frauds, not a good combination. pic.twitter.com/WNROEKbU4s Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No. This is IGNORANT. She is not citing the study but indirectly Zagorski 2017 “Do you have to be smart to be rich?” 1- It ignores noise (yuuuge here). For any practical purposes it is random. Next graph https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1099914389312794625   Permalink 1:30 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@Decafquest O the http://academia.edu   spams. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK”>  pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@hugowiz “In short, every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #quote #freedom #employees pic.twitter.com/xaggbhP14e Permalink 8:15 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A summary of the total result: How counterintuitively with p>½ one is off the hook. Note the distribution takes only even values for odd steps and vice versa. @bilayerguy pic.twitter.com/rq8RIamQ4Z Permalink 5:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have no idea what they are talking about when they discuss “time preferences”. Their “biases” come from not getting the math. Psych = BS. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/w3N4TC3eWn Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@JoshHochschild Anyone interested in: Subsidiarity Distributism Devolution Federalism Needs to read @nntaleb on “fractal localism”: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099952453011816450   Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Snow in Northern Phoenicia this morning. pic.twitter.com/nsFArLZw55 Permalink 4:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Pamphlet on Fractal Localism is developing online…. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 12:41 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Journalists like Nir Rosen should not be dictating norms to Syrians–they can’t get complexity, localism, interractions and drown in big words such as “inclusive”, “assimilation”,”racism”, etc. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1071383862134095874   Permalink 12:11 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MONTE CARLO verification. It works! Survival probability is indeed binary: Lindy above >½. pic.twitter.com/PftGdSEPsn Permalink 3:11 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:53 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is turning out that psychology is indeed the mother of all pseudosciences. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1099791858572713984   Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@cRRonycler For the nitpickers, mentally substitute ‘education’ with ‘education industry’, which is what Taleb means. Permalink 1:42 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Full of nonense: Nir Rosen recites BS by @josephinequinn abt “Phoenician Identity”, plots a racist Syrian identity vs the “inclusive” Arab identity from AUB 1860 historical fraud. Why isn’t a Mediterranean identity (for Syria-Turkey-Caucasus-Zagros) inclusive? He needs training. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1098222665272360960   Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb She does not get it. Education is NOT about learning math. Education is about employing tenured professors, administrators, fund raisers, and, most of all, enriching contractors. https://twitter.com/PardesSeleh/status/1098682386802532352   Permalink 7:11 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb That some detenured (or so) academic became a truck driver may indicate some political prejudice; but it certainly proves that some increasingly larger sections of academia are just unskilled labor. It also proves that BS vending cannot be easily done in the private sector. Permalink 3:30 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reverse. All real life risk takers worry about tails/ergodicity. Unlike academixs. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/davopp/status/1099621494299258880   Permalink 3:12 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The problem with fortune-cookie-brained @Ptetlock is insisting on spreading the wrong notion of #SKininthegame to fit his schtick: it is not about incentives. To repeat: it is a selection mechanism, filtering, something called Darwinian. @bryan_caplan https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1098604763707572225   Permalink 1:28 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/qMbEr7cmX2 Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Quick answer using the Normal Approximation which effectively captures long term behavior & limits: simply (unless I made an error somewhere), with a probability of success >½, you can move away from the barrier and never hit (Lindy). pic.twitter.com/cwexzi5Dge Permalink 4:14 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the game is, simply, filtering. https://twitter.com/sebpeekster/status/1099429467787808769   Permalink 2:36 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason this problem is beautiful because, while the answer can be instant (via handwaving), time to ruin is exactly the Lindy problem. Will post a Lindy solution. For the moment, look up the reflection principle (see Dynamic Heding) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflection_principle_(Wiener_process)   https://twitter.com/bilayerguy/status/1098926919402311680   Permalink 8:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@ektrit I owe to Taleb’s flaneuring for discovering that practical Orthodoxy had become just pagan style following of rituals. 25 years practising orthodox, trained by Athos monks and US missionaries, I noticed that only 5 years ago when I read Taleb. I was shocked. Permalink 8:18 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@cryptofun69 The Russian roulette and upside vs downside sounds straight from @nntaleb https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1099306171960303617   Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR / GEOMETRY You can express ALL nonlinear functions (for machine learning and other applications) using summs of call options, calibrated via the arc tangent of the slope. pic.twitter.com/PIvkyuwi4z Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@PhiloCrocodile Up to the age of 25, you read wholesale & in a mercenary way, to “acquire” a possession, to build a “literary culture”… After 25, you lose your hang-up and start re-reading –and it is precisely what you re-read that reveals your literary soul, what you like. – @nntaleb Permalink 1:58 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “With novelists, names and dates are wrong, the rest is true. With historians, names and dates are correct, the rest is false.” https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books   Permalink 1:01 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@dwnhogendoorn Remember: academics are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Feb 2019

@ArgaizR Just like IQ. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/mededpgh/status/1098964433882284032   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@nntaleb I despise Edward Said Permalink 1:34 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@oldlevantine Sounds like those who say “never mind that #EdwardSaid was a malignant charlatan,” that “his #Orientalism was a sordid work of fakeries, distortions, omissions and fabrications.. What matters is that he instigated a debate on the West’s pernicious renderings of the East.” Really? https://twitter.com/Jeff_Jacoby/status/1098763817776021506   Permalink 6:12 PM – 21 Feb 2019

@mikeandallie retweeting this so that I can come back to what I’m guessing will be a really interesting thread, and also because studying higher dimensional cubes is actually a really fun project for kids! https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1098663374412427264   Permalink 11:20 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Peter Francopan ⁦@peterfrankopan⁩ in the British Museum with his son. Peter can smell the silk roads across history. pic.twitter.com/qDIe5WoRfU Permalink 9:07 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can change the mind of someone who says “no”; never the minds of those who say nothing. Permalink 4:44 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@sergisoliva «Si el mundo se quedara sin fontaneros, los echaríamos de menos de inmediato. Pero si los presuntos expertos [burócratas, politólogos, etc.] desaparecieran, nadie les echaría de menos… salvo sus madres.» @nntaleb en @Papel_EM https://www.elmundo.es/papel/lideres/2019/02/21/5c6af6f721efa0fb378b46ea.html   @EdicionesPaidos Permalink 1:25 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@estimadapaloma «Si desaparecieran los expertos, sólo los echarían de menos sus madres». Nassim Nicholas Taleb [@nntaleb] entrevistado por @gonzalosuarez Vía @Elmundo #JugarselaPiel @EdicionesPaidos http://ow.ly/xv5v30nMqfg   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM”>  pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM Permalink 1:14 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Illuminated books are #Lindy. The main motivation to write a math book (and start a math publishing house to avoid writing on other people’s terms) is to do illuminated books! pic.twitter.com/AQtsb7xxrp Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 He is telling the truth in this case. Btw, I am not not have been a fan of Putin, but when you here the truth, acknowledge it. https://twitter.com/ml_maria_/status/1098180561275940866   Permalink 3:55 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/3K7q4gOUgz Permalink 3:17 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Being a good “forecaster” is meaningless in getting a good P/L. Where I show that 50 y of “expert calibration” research in psychology (decision th) is BS. Like most psychology (IQ< mental biases, Nudgeboy @Richard_Thaler’s work…) Followup on @juliagalef ‘s poll #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/8taEmcrWxM Permalink 3:12 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I learned that you can be interviewed by the New York Times for your obituary. This is thorough fact checking. pic.twitter.com/FBjn0TsXIG Permalink 7:40 AM – 19 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Was it Stefan Molyneux? Did he mention something about IQ? https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1097602461639081986   Permalink 5:52 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@garyruskin With #Monsanto and #Glyphosate on the Run, @AAAS Revokes Award to Scientists Whose Studies Led to Ban on Weedkiller in Sri Lanka and Other Countries. Via @CorpCrimeReport http://bit.ly/2X99r30   “Is corporate corruption eating at the heart of American science?” Permalink 12:20 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Οι ιδέες στο βιβλίο SKIN IN THE GAME εκφράζονται σε blurbs pic.twitter.com/2mtefX4egt Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Darb3shtar είναι ένα προάστιο του Amioun. Τα σταφύλια και το κρασί ανήκουν στο Amioun! Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Hayek #individuality #equality pic.twitter.com/j3YVRDKPMK Permalink 5:39 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@RalphNader See: The Democratic National Committee has voted down a ban on corporate PAC donations https://www.vox.com/2019/2/16/18226344/democratic-national-committee-corporate-pac-donations-tom-perez   via @voxdotcom Permalink 3:42 PM – 17 Feb 2019

@FattestFatTony “It’s much easier to macro BS than it is to micro BS.” -@nntaleb Translation: Ya can’t fool the neighborhood… #localism https://twitter.com/SusanGroff1/status/1097172965962051584   Permalink 8:43 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb @dottorpax gave me the idea that elite French cuisine was a top-down concept for the King, the court and the aristocracy; not so in Italy. https://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/1097162157102452736   Permalink 8:28 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, no, no, no, no !!! Economic decentralization ≠ military decentralization, something the Ottomans (and today’s Chinese) understood very, very well. Aleppo & Homs were 10 times richer (sic) than today (relative to Western Europe) before the Baath centralization policies. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1097126545049686016   Permalink 7:08 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Someone observed about #RWRI that it’s the only lecture she has attended with 3-6 instructors sitting upfront like a governing committee, in continuous disputation. I managed to get my points across by sending Raphael on fake emergencies to get him out of the room. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1097144536646762496   Permalink 6:57 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of “b**llshitter” isn’t someone called “truthful” but someone called “arrogant”. Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It seems that the sophistication of French cuisine arose from the need to mask the lack of freshness of the ingredients –much as perfume came from the need to compensate for bad hygiene. In contrast, Italian and East Med cuisines make salient the freshness of the ingredients. Permalink 5:03 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@GrayConnolly Tucker Carlson’s piece on America’s “war peddlers” is excellent https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-are-these-professional-war-peddlers-still-around-tucker-carlson-max-boot-bill-kristol/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb In the Bronx, if a restrnt has an Italian name (like Angelo’s, Carlo’s) odds it is operated by Albanians. Italian restrnts are likely to be called “Jim’s steakhouse”… Restrnts called “Lebanese” are owned by Syrians. Real Lebanese go by “Mediterranean” or “Phoenician” cuisine. Permalink 5:58 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hope this becomes a trend… A change in the narrative as the electorate doesn’t like war. https://twitter.com/da_stockman/status/1096924240215867392   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The future #RWRI location; the classroom has a direct view of the famous sidewalk where Paul Castellano was wacked by John Gotti’s operative Sammy The Bull. pic.twitter.com/b7o0ZcW47A Permalink 10:14 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My book puts some rigor behind the horrible @juliagalef flaw in rankings of “experts” based on “calibration” & thinking that one can get expectation error VIA probability error. Aside from the fact that, to add insult to injury, she put me in the sale list as @SamHarrisOrg . pic.twitter.com/0kAbEHd3wT Permalink 7:21 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The key is that estimation errors for probabilities are ALWAYS thin- tailed even for Fat-tailed variables. Those for expectation will be fat tailed for fat tailed variables. Which is why @juliagalef rankings of “experts” is an insult to both probability and the real world. Permalink 7:00 PM – 15 Feb 2019

@vtchakarova In life, you’re either the borrower or borrowee; the creditor or creditee; the f*cker or the f*ckee. Make sure that you’re not the f*ckee by being convex & eliminating the risk of ruin. – @nntaleb #RWRI 10, Day 5 Permalink 10:51 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri Finally convinced someone with #SkinInTheGame to buy #Bitcoin…socks. #RWRI 10. pic.twitter.com/MgKUyVXdmN Permalink 9:57 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@101010Lund If you can be squeezed, assume you will be. It’s only a matter of time. #RWRI Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@julioccneto “machine learning discovered that you can decompose a payoff with options of different strikes”. Spectacular brainstorming session with @nntaleb at #RWRI 10 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is “more likely to go up”, yet is very heavily short. Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter. Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space. Survival=calibration. Permalink 6:00 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BS vendor is BS vendor whether you agree or not “on this point” https://twitter.com/EmmettBeech/status/1096406989414879232   Permalink 5:56 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Today #RWRI 10, we discuss: How the “calibration” ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong 1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won’t survive, option traders can be right ~1% #ergodicity Permalink 5:55 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Correction: shd be “under absence of correlation” (uncorrelated vs independent) Permalink 5:47 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri You can’t trust regulation as post-retirement bureaucrats get highly paid jobs in the same industry who you helped while in Govt. @nntaleb #RWRI 10 #ImplicitBribe Permalink 1:25 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The message is that It is a very very bad idea to be both evil and stupid. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1096093772830658561   Permalink 10:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Ilhan Omar Smacks Down Elliott Abrams In Front Of Everybody http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/february/14/ilhan-omar-smacks-down-elliott-abrams-in-front-of-everybody/   Permalink 10:03 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 @normonics @nntaleb As I said, she is becoming more interesting and pay attention to who attacks her… https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1096094247336452103   Permalink 9:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@zerohedge Every Queens real estate broker right now pic.twitter.com/FYKZSe5WT2 Permalink 8:52 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb DAY 4 RWRI 10 Andrea Fontanari asking: Where is the tail? #RWRI pic.twitter.com/AJgj0NJ8b1 Permalink 6:28 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This is EXACTLY why we shd never conflate independence and zero correlation. Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@keithbensons Unless you were a sucker, but then recovered from being a sucker(iatrogenics), that’s an even yuuuuger edge. “Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825241185090428928   Permalink 5:55 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Not being a sucker is also a yuuuuuge edge. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1095830320543420417   Permalink 3:56 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Something I learned this morning: A joint fat-tailed distribution under independence is NOT a product of densities –to preserve ellipticality and “stability” of the Stable Distribution. pic.twitter.com/SBC9rvoFPV Permalink 3:50 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@normonics I never fail to regret spending time and energy engaging the “verbagiastic” (h/t @nntaleb for the term) Permalink 12:53 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI-10: A French mathematician trying to measure the tape using the room. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 12:15 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A fight erupted at RWRI-10. Raphael Douady measuring in “meters”. “This is America, we don’t use the f*** metric system”. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 11:08 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@sergesapiens #RWRI #10 with @nntaleb follows a power law: if you assume that the next day can’t get better you’re likely to be surprised! Permalink 10:38 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI 10 (day 3) Arié Haziza showing how convex costs of catastrophes are: there is a severe nonlinearity as you pay higher and higher prices for materials during reconstruction. Twice the severity => 2.5-4 times the economic costs. pic.twitter.com/xDDiyUl3M0 Permalink 8:42 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer, a comment on a paper by Maestro Spyros Makridakis @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/iaHPNHMri8 Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@mhuckabee1 New personal best today: 275 lbs deadlift x 3 reps. I’ll hit 300 soon. @nntaleb you inspired me! Permalink 4:36 PM – 12 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From “Lebanon” to “Phoenicia”… https://twitter.com/ptashny/status/1095401651840667649   Permalink 11:34 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@TheSuperbubble “commerce brings peace” — @nntaleb https://twitter.com/LarsSchall/status/1095292013321351168   Permalink 4:37 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@paulportesi Lindy. Physical books are engrained with the spirit of life when one holds them. Antilibrary too. @nntaleb 92 percent of students prefer print books, new study shows https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/print-textbooks-vs-ebooks_us_56ba4091e4b0b40245c4534e?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004   Permalink 4:38 PM – 11 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #IQ @charlesmurray #hayek pic.twitter.com/vfsFhq0Wxr Permalink 7:37 AM – 11 Feb 2019

@TheCalmPeople Quote of the day “my mood, my sadness my bouts of anxiety, are a second source of intelligence – perhaps even the first source.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb #Stress #ConflictManagement #AngerManagement #StressManagement #Happiness #MentalHealthMatters pic.twitter.com/Wf295oesYC Permalink 12:40 PM – 10 Feb 2019

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

Keynes, AOC, Bezos, Saudi Barbaria, Nat. Enquirer, Ghosn, IQ, alarm clocks, tawking, Peterson-Golden Rice, Lebanon, Nationalism, Pinker, Kelton,

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Imbecilic Keynesianisticists find *ad hoc* arguments to argue deficits don’t cause inflation. The focus is on “foreign debt”. There are tons of counteramples, including close to me the Lebanese devaluation (rate frm 3/$ -> 1500) that ruined my grandfather https://twitter.com/msilva12000/status/1094644393854844929   Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Industrious BS producing psychologists have been using correlation/regression for 100 years like parrots without trying to figure out what it means intuitively. They can’t even define it. Correlation (unlike mut information) is randomly subadditive or superadditive! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 8:19 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@NeutralTesla And Khashoggi died as the result of a fistfight. Saudi Arabia says has ‘nothing to do’ with Bezos-AMI dispute https://reut.rs/2GjiNnI   @nntaleb Permalink 8:16 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Announcement: Deborah Mayo @learnfromerror has a seminar on the philosophy of statistics. She also has a new book on the subject. Comments to come. pic.twitter.com/AXmhra36mu Permalink 8:12 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From POPPER to FAT TONY *BS detection*, *via negativa*, *not being a sucker*, & asymmetric epistemology are rarely accepted as modi operandi across disciplines. BS detection is the engine of 1) epistemology/science for Popper 2) theology for Orthodoxy 3) business for Fat Tony https://twitter.com/brentdsummers/status/1094561610964684801   Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb …and risk. Please do not give me Keynes as counterexample as he proved to be clueless about risk, but wasn’t as intellectually defective as today’s Keynesians. Permalink 4:29 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason social science calls itself a “science” is because of statistics. And their statistics are practically BS everywhere. I mean, really, everywhere. https://twitter.com/BeagleOnALeash/status/1094345432875089922   Permalink 1:58 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@keithbensons @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HPpx2IWVb8 Permalink 1:02 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Unpublished pictures are worth a lot more than published ones. #NationalEnquirer #UmbertoEcosLibrary Permalink 12:54 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR The phenomenon known as “regression to the mean” is largely a social science illusion. It requires a stable & *known* mean, constant standard deviation, a thin-tailed distribution, & homogeneous cohorts. Permalink 11:52 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is easiest to do the most when you have nothing to do. Permalink 10:09 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The maximum success is reached when you are never busy. https://twitter.com/extrachelle/status/1093857798612545538   Permalink 6:14 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@yzilber Gawker were saints Vs Nat Etq. Nate Enq are mafia Gawker were just crude thugs misbehaving Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What Occasio is saying on lobby funding is right, healthy, & perfectly compatible with libertarianism/localism. These distortions/hijacking of representation are the product of a centralized system. Let us make sure these ideas of sound governance are not marketed as “socialist”. https://twitter.com/JKCorden/status/1093634176845139968   Permalink 9:26 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas I don’t think Dunning Krueger is real or Lindy https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1093909071336562688   Permalink 8:48 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The most unsettling part of the @JeffBezos story is the very high possibility that Saudi Arabia is blackmailing the current U.S. president. Even in the case of Bezos, blackmailing on behalf of a foreign government has some legal consequences. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093845565333475329   Permalink 7:02 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man “You can’t eat Sharpe ratios.” @Bloomberg @ErikSchatzker https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1086321274522165248   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093515067600056320   Permalink 6:59 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” 2- I block idiots. Like immediately. Nothing personal. Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: Noah Smith @Noahpinion has a long history of commenting on papers & books he didn’t read. Yet how come such a fraud still exists? Only because he represents a certain socialist line? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1093863981478019072   Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MORAL OF THE STORY: – If Saudi Barbaria & the Nat. Enquirer can explicitly blackmail the richest person in the most powerful country, where does it leave the rest of us? – Remember we were saved from Gawker that was in the business of ruining the lives of college students. https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1093643321732464646   Permalink 4:14 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntalebbot “Regular minds find similarities in stories (and situations); finer minds detect differences.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@Safaitic I will be giving a lecture at ISAW ( http://isaw.nyu.edu/  ) on March 29-30 at a workshop on the Nessana Papyri. I imagine it will be open to the public so please join us and hear about the trilingual language situation of the town in the 6th c. CE. Permalink 12:10 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- (Ghosn) I know numerous billionaires; I’ve met many CEOs. Billionaires tend to live as if they were CEOs; CEOs tend to live as if they were billionaires. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Ghosn fell prey to the “show me the man, I will find you a crime”. Someone with enemies should be obsessive about creating a web a “plausible deniability” ahead of time. You need to stay at least one step ahead of your enemies, in France two steps, and in Japan, three. Permalink 9:38 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@NonMeek A good rule of thumb is to focus on what people do instead of what they say. #NOskininthegame = #BS pic.twitter.com/Qp3L9kb8WI Permalink 7:48 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM CARLOS GHOSN? (Thread) Ghosn is a very competent man but 1- One cannot behave like Henry Ford or Louis XIV if one is getting a salary/under corporate bondage. Worse: one is NEVER free when getting a salary. Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Universa’s Spitznagel on Fed Policy, Hedge Funds and Insuring Market Risk https://youtu.be/xiBjBkXBHLw   via @YouTube Permalink 6:21 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-06/nietsche-optimizing-risk-and-embracing-disasters   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @zerohedge #Nietzsche #AmorFati ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J”>  pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J Permalink 6:17 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The IQ thingy by psychologists/BS vendors is drawing me back to the problem of non-elipticality of distributions. Correlation is much harder to work with than you think. (from my next book) pic.twitter.com/k2R1Z86dHd Permalink 1:54 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any positive advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. (corrected to fix the meta-problem). Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Finally figured out. “IQ” doesn’t test for intelligence; rather how likely a person is likely to become a state-solution loving socialist. Permalink 11:01 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@normonics genetics is good for sorting out history, as @nntaleb is doing, but is terrible for making predictions or describing how macroscopic behaviors and properties unfold from genetics, given our current knowledge and abilities. Permalink 8:44 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@thackerpd Nina Federoff is the former President of AAAS. She is now an advisor to a law firm that lobbies for the agrochemical industry and a critic of #GMO reporting “Flacking for GMOs: How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media—and Discourages Criticism” https://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/   Permalink 7:57 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Those who aren’t in it for the money won’t tell you that they aren’t in it for the money. Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school professor. Permalink 7:15 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who has to work for a living. Permalink 7:03 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2nd Lecture at Tandon on probability, showed how under some conditions (conservation) Max Entropy leads to the Gaussian. Adding the derivations to my book. pic.twitter.com/I6y85F8Bsi Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hayda tzwir térikhé. L-lbnénéné (w l mashr2é/néoKn3ané) lghétna l2mm. Permalink 4:55 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb An indicator of freedom and bondage: how often did you have to use an alarm clock this month? Permalink 4:52 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@LindyEffect Erasmus pic.twitter.com/x98fdqwYyZ Permalink 6:41 PM – 5 Feb 2019

@sentantiq Tonight Dani Bostick will be live tweeting the State of the Union Address in Latin. Look out for @danibostick and the hashtag #LatinSOTU https://sententiaeantiquae.com/2019/02/05/the-state-of-our-union-in-latin/   Permalink 8:58 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@normonics Quick GMO complexity lesson: A central challenge in complexity studies is understanding how microscopic properties and behaviors flow upwards in scale and produce macroscopic behaviors It turns out this is a VERY hard problem Permalink 8:47 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Removed the Abstract (it was a teaser before submission to a journal)… Will repost in a few. Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My contribution to the problem is here https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085879808624607232   Permalink 5:22 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@MaxAbrahms New report adds even more evidence that American weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gone to Al Qaeda and its friends in Yemen. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/02/middleeast/yemen-lost-us-arms/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is dishonest to claim that the rich of yesterday are the same as those of today. Ergodicity https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 8:37 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@EconTalker This is dishonest. Not the same people in those groups every year. Your picture and your tweet make it seem otherwise. It’s not a zero-sum game and every serious economist knows it. You should too. https://medium.com/@russroberts/do-the-rich-capture-all-the-gains-from-economic-growth-c96d93101f9c   https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1092397923009204224   Permalink 8:19 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: RATIONALITY John 1،1:Ἐν ἀρχῇ ἦν ὁ λόγος, mistransl. “in the beginning was the verb” shd بع “First, there is reasoning”. The Peshita, uses “Béréshit (for beginning, shd be “principally”) MLL for verb =”abilitlity to speak” λόγος= منطق= מלל NOT كلمة #Lindy pic.twitter.com/8Tc9CLXHWO Permalink 6:12 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@zerohedge The term “neoliberal warmongers” is thus born https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1092245449304612869   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 I thought that correlation was a bad measure because super-additive [relu/sigmoids] rho[a+b]>rho[a]+rho[b]. Turns out it is also sub-additive [exponential]. In other words, there are very very very narrow conditions where one can safely use correlation. Permalink 6:32 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And of course Patrick Moore whose dangerous, dishonest (& exploitative) arguments psychologist @jordanbPeterson was diffusing is a well identified shill for glyphosate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovKw6YjqSfM   Permalink 3:31 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The point is not if someone is right or wrong. It is if someone is a bullshitter, tawking about stuff he doesn’t know nothing about or giving you verbalistic arguments that sound good. He will be a bullshitter EVEN if he later turns out to be right. https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1092138559283384320   Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When you are, say, a physicist, you don’t argue abt quantum mechanics w/an astrologer for the sake of “listening to all sides”. I just block people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom I DO NOT want to have an exchange because you DO NOT learn/advance from bullshit. Gabish? Permalink 11:05 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Actually it is not just virtue signaling but Peterson’s DISGUSTING use of appeal to pity or some FAKE humanitarianism “because blindness” to justify selling speculative options in place of less lucrative more robust ones. Similar to pedophrasty. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 10:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb OUR PRECAUTIONARY PPLE WITH RESPECT TO GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@olivierglinec Avez vous lu cela: https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/nicolas-hulot-monsanto-a-demande-a-une-officine-belge-de-soccuper-de-ma-reputation-3850433   Permalink 10:02 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb There are antecedents https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1092119956597235717   Permalink 9:58 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I block @JordanbPeterson for violation of intellectual integrity/virtue signaling. pic.twitter.com/8HDRPXmtdZ Permalink 9:48 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb These tweets explain that if you have a nonlinear function, say IQ vs performance, then “correlation” is tooooootally meaningless mathematically, & multidimensional “factors” are even worse. This is of some relevance for machine learning with the ReLu function. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1091820909281923073   Permalink 8:18 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb ANSWER: found a counterexample f(x)=Exp[x]. Overall correlation is always lower (up to ~40%) than that of any subsample! MORAL: Use psychometrics/psychology books for winter fuel as many citizens have difficulties with their heating bills. pic.twitter.com/FctDnzdLT1 Permalink 6:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/xAcAhnGg8R Permalink 2:11 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE INEQUALITY DU JOUR pic.twitter.com/vaCY0gAlnV Permalink 2:09 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Palestinians are dominated by J1 pic.twitter.com/AlxfmkVmPQ Permalink 10:53 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When people makes public apologies and acts of contrition, they are mostly sorry that they were caught. Permalink 6:31 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@Monsantobuster Falkenstein spent 21 years smearing Taleb with lies and strawman. Is he so stupid as not to realize he can get caught? http://fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34″>  pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34 Permalink 5:02 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lamma tfshal ma7ada byid3amak mitl ahl blédak w lamma tnja7 ma7ada byi7sadak w bkhazwék fik mitl ibn baladak Permalink 7:04 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@SituationO Lebanon’s new government has 4 female ministers: – @rayaelhassan ,(Interior), Future Movement – @violetteksafadi ,(Woman affairs), Future Movement – @may_chidiac ,(Administrative reform), Lebanese Forces – @NadaBoustani ,(Energy), Free Patriotic Movement Congrats! pic.twitter.com/3PahUeWcX8 Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What is working in Lebanon is that it doesn’t have two factions, but at least three. Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@yaneerbaryam Switzerland is a country of peace, stability & prosperity. Our analysis shows that peace doesn’t depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well-defined topographical & political boundaries separating groups @arutherfordium @GardMurray @future_andi https://necsi-global.org/good-fences-the-importance-of-setting-boundaries-for-peaceful-coexistence/?rq=switzerland   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM”>  pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 4 women in Lebanese government. The rest is details. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1091414421732249601   Permalink 12:09 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Fractal Localism pic.twitter.com/kY2zjrzDLD Permalink 12:02 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BARBARIAN SUPREMACISM From now on, you can call “White” supremacists BARBARIAN SUPREMACISTS Northrn Europe does not have a monopoly on Caucasian. (Note I permanently blocked @RazibKhan as he could not substantiate what “flaws” he claimed in our GMO risk paper, hence his watch) pic.twitter.com/zdX8rsH5U3 Permalink 9:15 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more. #BedofProcrustes https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1091288735721967616   Permalink 8:02 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can easily have a nation-state with 2, even 4 languages (Belgium, Switzerland), but you can’t easily have a nation-state with 2 religions. #Localism Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@booksoftitans The Bed of Procrustes by @nntaleb just $2.99 on @AmazonKindle and @AppleBooks today – https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms-ebook/dp/B004C43F9S   – https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/the-bed-of-procrustes/id420518445   Permalink 7:28 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- In other words, there exist a system where you can be a Maronite/Shiite/Armenian nationalist without imposing your preferences on others, and without others imposing their preferences on you. It’s localism. Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It was PRECISELY the removal of multiculturalism by Arabists that fucked it up. Permalink 6:06 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Nationalism is an idea that came about in the 19th C., messed up Greece/Turkey, destroyed Alexandria, Saloniki, Aleppo, Smyrna, Constantinople. French nationalism is absurd:Provencal localism is not. Now people are getting Fractal localism and City-states as a natural order. Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM/LEBANON Maronites are obsessed w/Lebanese Nationalism=Maronite homeland; don’t consider us the Rhum (Greek Orthodox) minority (~5%) as part of their ethnos: we are too Mediterraneanists/Universalists w/foreign allegiances. Hence a Swiss-style bottom-up Localism. https://twitter.com/sarkis_charles/status/1091241380268130304   Permalink 5:55 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Closed for RWRI-10. We gave 20 full and partial scholarships in total for RWRI-10. Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@oliviergay Same with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. On his interrogation on hiding non-existing WMD: “Western governments and their intelligence agencies had failed to realize that Saddam was more fearful of attack by Iran than by the US.” https://twitter.com/RidT/status/1077944842896982016   Permalink 5:07 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #9: https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1087681642599276545   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #1 https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1088339650333294594   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@ole_b_peters Very nice. This precise mathematical error is all over economics. Do something invalid with a limit or an infinity and claim whatever you want. When you point out such an error, you’re told economic theories don’t have to be mathematically correct, they just have to sound smart. https://twitter.com/Undercoverhist/status/1075912850269487104   Permalink 1:11 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas Imagine having this “genetic intelligence test” and not being rich https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1091038511233421313   Permalink 2:02 PM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT We have a 100% scholarship left for RWRI-10 for a woman, preferably Syrian or Venezuelan, or from a troubled part of the planet, preferably a doctoral student, preferably a nonpsychologist. NEED TO APPLY TODAY Feb 11-15, NY. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:37 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, psychometric measures best the extreme unintelligence of psychometricians. https://twitter.com/ThomasGrava/status/1091055576237395970   Permalink 11:32 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@fpontaza Chef @ArielTrodArgent had us for dinner last night and honored his Lebanese ancestry with his Lindy recipe for keppe crudo. You rarely get to experience something so great from so far away in Guatemala. We raised our glasses for @nntaleb! pic.twitter.com/9CjgNQ4pMM Permalink 11:24 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@AdibChristian Looking into using #GoogleAutoMLTranslation to create a translation engine that can process Lebnééné/NeoKanaané. Thoughts? @BLebnene https://cloud.google.com/translate/   Permalink 10:44 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5- Something about Persia that the Trump administration is clueless: Persia obsessed Greeks, Romans, Arabs, then Ottomans for the past 2400 years. Rome was broke frm the 700 y Persian wars. Unconquered in spite of short lived fake successes: Alexander, Herakles, Arabs, etc.. Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090986235223568384   Permalink 8:08 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- The Ottomans also used the Byzantine administration. They even brought the Levant back into “Rome”. They also protected Orthodoxy from Catholic “Europe”… for a while. Look at the map. https://twitter.com/hzkathulhu/status/1090988564886810625   Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Something @peterfrankopan got: Ottomans didn’t give a f*** abt “Rome” since Rome itself moved closer to the wealth, the silk road, & was now Constantinople. Before wealth from the Americas the West was an economic desert. Turks shared w/Romans & Byzantines the Persian obsession. Permalink 7:10 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Turks’ anger at the Russians was that Ivan IV took the title of Tsar, “Ceasar” when the Ottomans believed that, after Mehmed, THEY were the official successors of Caesar. https://twitter.com/EALTurner/status/1090975867583557632   Permalink 6:43 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb People forget that Soliman’s predecessor 130 years before, Bayazid, proclaimed himself Sultan-r-Rum (Roman Sultan), about a century before the fall of Constantinople. Another issue about “East-West”: the Byzantine church, until the 1800s, felt “East”, operated ~1000y under Islam. https://twitter.com/RenderuntoG/status/1090810150883971073   Permalink 6:00 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Article by @xriskology seems to find it generalized… https://www.salon.com/2019/01/26/steven-pinkers-fake-enlightenment-his-book-is-full-of-misleading-claims-and-false-assertions/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Note that our bone w/Pinker @sapinker is that his citations don’t match his statistical claims. He started with a conclusion, then tried to find data to confirm it. Here his central claim is bunk. Calling me bellicose/arrogant isn’t a scientific answer. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=670117070070069017069127022113081120031047031042055074081065126024120067069003090124049107118055103025009099127064108125084119028035061021010087093100074084092109046023010095001099096093092082102029123024102008084001102122009080080028117086117113021&EXT=pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25″>  pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25 Permalink 4:57 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gaussian case: a beautiful sqrt pi function a la Sirling. pic.twitter.com/VMsG0qfoeg Permalink 1:39 PM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exception: Mike B @MikeBloomberg… any other? Permalink 11:53 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A triangle inequality entailing partial correlation. pic.twitter.com/XlOivnHVbF Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/43G0ocDLcB Permalink 7:05 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A neat theorem about the asymmetry of correlation: if downside correlation is 100% and upside correlation is 0%, total correlation will show ~90%! Moral: 1) never use the word correlation under asymmetry 2) use psychometrics textbooks for winter fuel 3) close psych departments pic.twitter.com/sdOh3P5IRC Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@rationalwalk Nikki is now in the “private sector” where she will cash in on past favors, take down payments in future favors, and end up with a 8+ figure net worth from which to plot a return to “public service”. Rinse, repeat, path to riches and power. https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1090613317306122240   Permalink 6:59 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In a long career, I’ve (almost) never seen anyone get rich while employed (via bonuses/stock options, as w/bankers, CEOs, & rich slaves), & subsequently also make money on their own, in self employment. If you can’t make it on your own, it’s #rentseeking. Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Never ever call me a polymath. I am a probabilist. Nothing else. That’s sufficient. Please. Permalink 5:16 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@TrevMalley Nassim has a knack for getting to the real meat of the argument. These people may as well claim the Japanese as fellow whites if they’re going to use the achievements of the Ancient Mediterranean world as an argument for their grandeur Permalink 5:10 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Real squid ink smudges. pic.twitter.com/PBa0xZCgwX Permalink 4:59 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In other words, better say: “you mean Barbarian supremacists?” rather than imitate some SJW harangue. Permalink 4:52 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The way to deal with racists is to NEVER use moral arguments (they are insensitive to them). Just prove to them that their “race”… was comparatively sub-par for a very, very, very long time. Just like the current condition of “inferior” races. That, they can’t handle. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087763053515603968   Permalink 4:42 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@trishankkarthik Debate is for suckers Permalink 4:39 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Excited to find in my mailbox the book by @ErwanLeCorre from whom I’ve learned so much about natural fitness/#antifragility. pic.twitter.com/A57GM8yM9E Permalink 3:14 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong. Permalink 2:32 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@paulportesi Can somebody explain to me why the f*** should a utility company get bonuses? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1090352637478912002   Permalink 1:04 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am certain that over the past 5000 years, nobody has had to use an IQ test to choose between: surgeons, gardeners, physicists, hitmen, massage professionals, fortune tellers, spanish grammar specialists, or Swahili-to-Medieval Latin translators. https://twitter.com/fpingham/status/1090311581467058176   Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ WRAPUP These IQ psychologogs can’t answer my point abt elementary yet severe mathematical flaws w/the “IQ” measure. All I got is a downpour of BS from @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, @StuartJRitchie, @Ptetlock, the @Quillette boys “IQ”≠ Mental abilities https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=szXf0VLuQLg   Permalink 8:00 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild “another—doubtless very different—Boethius” @Hannah_Cristine totally got my review of @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/m33N7XjZ3Z Permalink 6:28 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@epigraphed Two people can be using the same word, meaning different things, yet continue the conversation, which is fine for coffee, but not when making decisions, particularly policy decisions affecting others. @nntaleb https://link.medium.com/yTtEwBiiJT   Permalink 3:25 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@LePoint Laetitia Strauch-Bonart – La bataille du QI Au grand dam de nombre d’experts, l’essayiste Nassim Nicholas Taleb remet en question la fiabilité et la pertinence des tests de quotient intellectuel >> http://bit.ly/2RUE5xX   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS”>  pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS Permalink 2:14 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@TheAnnaGat That is true. I showcase my communication and problem-solving skills by not having been blocked by @nntaleb (yet) even though I have responded to him. Permalink 12:53 PM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ is a scientific swindle –A brief explanation of the math https://youtu.be/szXf0VLuQLg   via @YouTube Permalink 7:50 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg #VolatilityMonster pic.twitter.com/zTJPea3WAi Permalink 6:05 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@ESFLiberty #LibertyCon19 is also featured on the newest edition of Journal des Libertés! Spot us on page 150! C’est très excité You can access the publication here http://bit.ly/2sQz9vl   Register now at http://LibertyCon.net  ! @SFL_France @lawrencewr @nntaleb @tomgpalmer ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886″>  pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886 Permalink 6:02 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@seltzer_c “Je suis pour le principe de subsidiarité qui me semble le plus efficace politiquement et économiquement. Politiquement, je suis localiste. L’individu ne doit être géré que par des gens qui vivent avec lui.” ⁦@nntaleb, ITW par ⁦@EugenieBastie⁩ http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 5:00 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- Another spuriousness in the neuroscience literature: Never trust any “evidence” from Neuroscience or psychobyllshutmetrics without redoing the math. We use as a standard Pinker’s deffender the charlatan @michaelshermer who pollutes intellectual life with pseudoempiricism. pic.twitter.com/CzLS41qVHa Permalink 4:39 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The answer and the Monte Carlo illustration shows how hard it is to explain that “randomness does not look random”. pic.twitter.com/ypPsnyJxNh Permalink 3:58 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ DU JOUR, around “Fooled by Randomness”. How to ferret out pseudo-empiricism (or where “empirical evidence is not empirical evidence”): What are the odds of getting a spurious “cancer cluster”? [FIRST CLASS TANDON TONIGHT] pic.twitter.com/pQnpeumSfz Permalink 3:34 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Ab alio expectes alteri quod feceris Permalink 7:24 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb GrecoLebanese proverb du jour: Lkalb mabi 3add khayyo (Caninas caninam non est -κυων κυνός ουχ απτεται) Permalink 7:06 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That psychobullshit: “psychometric intelligence” is not even intelligence, but some crappy number used 1) to employ psychologists, 2) put down some race. Permalink 6:18 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This is what nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_thaler never understood. Evolution is NOT an incentive but a FILTER. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1089675741288112128   Permalink 4:08 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/1WqDtJV4BM Permalink 12:50 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@financequant Effective tax rates across time: https://taxfoundation.org/taxes-rich-1950-not-high/   I am posting this not because I necessarily agree with all of the conclusions. The facts are that the proportion of income paid by the rich hasn’t changed as much as a naïve view of the tax rates would indicate. Permalink 11:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists don’t get PCAs under nonlinearity: if the factors correlate with any mental difficulties, the g will give the illusion of robustness WITHOUT being predictive OTS. It is easy to prove the g is a scientific swindle. ( I actually did) https://twitter.com/cfchabris/status/1089365903693762566   Permalink 11:26 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Vatican II reminds me a performance of Trovatore I attended in Chicago years ago. The singing was in English “for clarity”. I walked out 2 minutes into the opera. Conversely, Imagine the Beatles translated (and sung) into Slovenian. Permalink 11:00 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Taleb once tweeted when asked “If you had one thing to tell a child, what would it be?”. He replied “Time is smarter than you.” I like that. Permalink 9:22 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is capitalism that pulled billions out of poverty. Not vapid virtue signaling. Permalink 8:51 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In Fooled by Randomness: Vatican II destroyed Catholicism by translating the sacred into ordinary language. Meanwhile Judaism & Islam never debased the texts away from Hebrew and Arabic, resp. The current Bishop of Rome @Pontifex is continuing the destruction started in 1962. pic.twitter.com/gyvBHfv3Hx Permalink 8:13 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am so lucky 1) to be born in the Byzantine Orthodox Church, & 2) that we had a schism with the bishop of Rome in 1054. https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1089327127277621248   Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You can give a 99% probability that those who hate my style and find it arrogant are… psychologists or social scientists. https://twitter.com/andeanmckena/status/1089546744168415234   Permalink 7:38 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My black list doesn’t necessarily include people who have been to the Davos WEF. It includes those who have been to Davos more than once. Permalink 7:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The honest person isn’t the one who has never sinned. It’s the one who has never committed any sin more than once. Permalink 7:24 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Reading the excellent @peterfrankopan #thesilkroads and the more I read, the more I see proofs of something @nntaleb pointed out to me: it’s wealth that creates education, not the other way round. Primum vivere… pic.twitter.com/WHc3QQA9SW Permalink 6:10 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler: nerds use the ruler to measure the table; Fat Tonies (and real scientists) use the table to measure the ruler. https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1089258974501756928   Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My takeaway: people with inferior intelligence should refrain from engaging in smear campaigns. But, again, one needs to be of inferior intelligence to get into smear campaigns. Permalink 6:07 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Davos WEF tried & failed to smear me for calling them IAND (Int’l Association of Name Droppers): head of communication Adrian Monck @amonck kept claiming I don’t reference Popper in The Black Swan (Popper, referenced 53 times, has an entire chapter). https://twitter.com/GeorgeJNasr/status/962353415715246080   Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Kind of people that I block immediately as these type of fallacious questions destroy the debate. pic.twitter.com/o24gOqWRst Permalink 5:18 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@zinarosek As part of my legal work on the Genocide against Iraqi Christians, I have a list & files on neocon warcriminals who played key role in the Genocide. John Bolton & Elliott Abrams (laughing evilly in video) are both on the list. @POTUS’ admin has hired both. pic.twitter.com/9dAUHPgO1r Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOTE TO THE ALT-RIGHT: I got plenty of ethnic hatred by quack-Molyneux/Charles Murray’s crowd. I am not complaining, but for Baal’s sake, 1) I am Greek Orthodox (not Muslim) and… 2) Lebanon has no desert. It’s on the Med. So please remember: Lebanon has no desert. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/0rqo9De7Aj Permalink 5:11 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@NonMeek ”…70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the 2nd generation, and a whopping 90% by the third generation.” Shocking read for those who still believe there are safe asset classes. https://twitter.com/mebfaber/status/1088505078946787329   Permalink 12:14 AM – 25 Jan 2019

@Firsou Someone who takes no risks should not throw stones at people who have offloaded most of the initial risk to themselves. Entrepreneurs are heroes. Permalink 12:26 PM – 24 Jan 2019

@olivierglinec La bataille du QI dans le point aujourd’hui/IQ battle in the french paper Le Point pic.twitter.com/HuztqjXhIx Permalink 8:04 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@DrCirillo In studying war casualties and other historical data, you have to treat them as imprecise random observations. If you don’t, all your subsequent analyses will be flawed. cc @nntaleb Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@EugenieBastie Mon interview avec Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb ) iconoclaste et génial auteur du “Cygne noir” et d'”Antifragile” : «La modernité hait l’incertitude, elle ne voudrait que des bons élèves» http://premium.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 3:16 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Some work on this is being done by complexity physicist @yaneerbaryam . Yaneer can you tweetstorm? https://twitter.com/otrasenda_ac/status/1088204786908852225   Permalink 3:13 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@ryanpflynn This is what happens when Nerdified Public-Health Bureacrats come up w/ a “solution” to a nerdified problem. Go play outside. @nntaleb @Mangan150 https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1088163109133578240   Permalink 12:07 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@fermatslibrary A visual proof why 1+3+5+…+(2n-1)=n² = Permalink 5:45 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Studies of the handwriting of Mozart, Einstein, or Fat Tony are nothing but fetichism & reliquiae worship passing for scholarship —residual paganistic practices in a pseudo-atheist society. And state funded, of course. https://twitter.com/britishlibrary/status/1088063054716252160   Permalink 5:35 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that Beirut is starting to have the Miami look. You can’t travel anymore. pic.twitter.com/f87oDVsbyO Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Appendix to new book on why Black Scholes doesn’t work under power laws pic.twitter.com/3ghxFlQo33 Permalink 10:01 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gerrymandering based on later categories: There was Christendom, vs Land of Islam and we are using the most recent categorization. “Europe” has traditionally started with Christianity’s limit on the East & (North of the Med) Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087770487462203393   Permalink 9:59 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087708976261808129   Permalink 9:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Stop the fake news + historical gerymandering promoted by quack-quack Molyneux & Charles Murray: Before 1600 Northern “Europe” contributed to ~ nothing. Nazi “Aryans” appropriated the growth of the Med/S. W. Eurasia by making (Ancient) Greeks members of the same “race”. Quacks. pic.twitter.com/MB96KybY9V Permalink 9:24 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@Scale_Trust — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FNfhf5391v Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@iosif_lazaridis Sad that people have to waste their time for this: “20 of 49 statements presented to me for review on January 2 were incorrect, and 27 of the 36 statements presented to me for review on January 5 were incorrect.” Five Corrections to The New York Times https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/five-corrections-new-york-times   Permalink 6:30 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It happened. 2009. https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087705510432964613   Permalink 5:44 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb And of course hear that the President of China is talking about Black Swan without having to show up to the Davos meeting of the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers) https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1087638941984006150   Permalink 5:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@imleslahdin – You know what one should call a test that encourages poor statisticd hygiene? a “statistics deficit test” (SD test) instead of an “intelligent quotient test” – @lpachter Very interesting read if you have been following the @nntaleb IQ threads. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2018/06/04/low-iq-scores-predict-excellence-in-data-science/   Permalink 9:55 PM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Statistic for the Four Population Test https://www.academia.edu/38192150/Statistic_for_the_Four_Population_Test?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 11:50 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@pacha111 “During the collapse of the Sui Dynasty there was a bandit lord named Meng Haigong who had a special hatred for scholars and bureaucrats. Whenever he took a highborn captive he’d carefully *misquote* a Confucian classic in front of them. If they pointed out the error, they died” Permalink 8:27 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- Something unknown by *IQ idiots w/sinister theories* (s.a. @charlesmurray @primalpoly): NONLINEARITY. Variables that correlate only ½ the time show ρ >.855 (Gaussian case) but rises to ρ>.92 in absense of tapering of tail values. These are basic notions. Probability is hard. pic.twitter.com/8iQHo9cARm Permalink 5:28 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1- SIMPLEST CASE: Correlation with a constant will show a positive correlation. But there is a loooooooot worse. pic.twitter.com/DFhzYsLqp3 Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (this time, difficult) There are many known examples of fake independence: random variables X & Y can be more dependent than shown in correlation. (x & Y=x^x for instance) Can you find instances of X & Y that more correlated than dependent? Permalink 4:20 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “A half-man (or, rather, half-person) is not someone who does not have an opinion, just someone who does not take risks for it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Insight by @ArthurB about IQ as an inverse metric: Gifted pple exhibit skills-specific competence: geometry, drawing, algebra, patents, wealth, creations… The subset of [1) Losers who can’t do anything & 2) & scored high on IQ] will show their “IQ”. So IQ = adverse selection. Permalink 5:02 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@Iluvpizzayum I have a business. I hate rent-seekers. Permalink 12:34 AM – 20 Jan 2019

Mesopotamia, Miami, Migrations, Molyneux, PSYCHOLOGY, Monsanto, 2018, Wittgenstein’s Ruler, “IQ”, Pinker, One Tweetstorm, Mongolians, Charles Murray, Isaac Levi,

@spyrosmakrid USA TODAY Article Published Jan 18, 19 “Do you have High Blood Pressure (HBP)? It depends on which doctor you ask” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2019/01/18/high-blood-pressure-guidelines-american-heart-association-college-cardiology/2607407002/   AND which study you use (some saying HBP decreases life expectancy by 5 years others by couple of months) https://openheart.bmj.com/content/1/1/e000048   @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7rMRj5DDVO”>  pic.twitter.com/7rMRj5DDVO Permalink 8:18 AM – 19 Jan 2019

@Lipsie ( message to #Millennials ) Bae (s), “you want to help mankind, start a business” a.k.a stop taking long haul flights to have your photos taken with black kids suburbs of Nairobi. Yeet ? Now bounce xxx c/o @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 2:21 AM – 19 Jan 2019

@nntaleb (And no, I am not setting foot in South Beach. Not even for squid ink.) Permalink 4:02 PM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists, among other very serious defects, cherrypick data. https://twitter.com/jbenton/status/1085960543079419905   Permalink 2:46 PM – 18 Jan 2019

@l0bbelt In true Talebian tradition, I will block you because you are an idiot. Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@TimMcCoy5 I follow maths expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Here’s why – his on the record predictions in May 2016 pic.twitter.com/RJ0qALhSZ4 Permalink 10:19 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/8usJEXuHge Permalink 9:55 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@NonMeek Here’s the #Offshore IQ -collection in its entirety. I gather intelligence is mostly about not being stupid. This collection will help with that. [inspired by @nntaleb & #IQ-tweetstorm] pic.twitter.com/MuE271iWcv Permalink 7:56 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Miami (downtown): Something refreshing about a town devoid of any pretense of intellectualism. Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Basic analytical problems pervade psychology. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1086259582052286465   Permalink 7:24 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Look at things from probability… Remember Cramer & other dist of gaps between primes. pic.twitter.com/IndsleeIp6 Permalink 7:23 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Goes flat, then fools you with a jump. https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1083722706963582976   Permalink 4:51 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@Firsou The dietary data that they used to constitute the “Mediterranean Diet Pyramid”, that Willett considered “the optimal diet”, was collected in Crete during Lent, when no meat or dairy are consumed until Easter. They are basing their recommendations on pure BS @Mangan150 pic.twitter.com/IyhOPvL55V Permalink 12:24 PM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 That historical accounts of migrations are largely fiction: there have been little movement in S. W. Eurasia [Mediterranean + Anatolia] since the Bronze age. Ancient Greeks weren’t blond “Aryans”; looked like someone in Astoria. https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1085894427263070209   Permalink 6:56 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Precisely why Psychology is nonsense: you call their BS they claim that there is something wrong with you. [ Incidentally there is little new & true psychologists know that was not perfected by 1) thieves, 2) used car salesmen, 3)magicians. ] https://twitter.com/benrobbins/status/1085898485788856326   Permalink 6:05 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis (Clearly the statement by the quack-quack Molyneux that the population of Mesopotamia was “replaced” by peninsulars & other invaders doesn’t hold.) Permalink 5:26 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The entire problem with closing psychology departments: you need a place to put (talkative) neurotic people. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085635799209660416   Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My genetics (probability) paper. pic.twitter.com/IIte4sC2lK Permalink 4:41 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb μεράκι = soul in the game. Permalink 5:53 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Why statistician are way out of their depth w/BIG DATA: + To a statistician, there are single variables, scalars, vectors, and matrices, separate “tings” in various degrees of complication. + To a probabilist, a scalar is just a low dimensional matrix. All the same “ting”. Permalink 4:32 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Neaaaaaaat https://twitter.com/samuelgwalters/status/1085373506643156992   Permalink 2:51 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Salibi, genetics show, is largely fabrication. #science #rigor https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1085623558242426880   Permalink 2:39 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@pennedtweets And if I follow logically, we arrive back at bottom up localism. Beautiful. Though it’s daunting and deliberately demanding, it seems there’s much to nobly devote one’s life to in this space for the foreseeable future. Very exciting. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PSYCHOLOGY has contributed to nothing nonBS in its history (hence “IQ” shtick) -nothing real & unknown to grandmothers. PROBLEM: if we close psych depts in univ., would it be riskier since psychologists can cause WORSE damage in other jobs (drivers, pizza delivery, journalism)? Permalink 12:31 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@ArmandDAngour Whereas COMPERICLITY is having #skininthegame @nntaleb https://twitter.com/haggardhawks/status/1085503179528261633   Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@TheOppoMan @gillette It is immoral to claim virtue in order to make a buck! @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 6:09 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@VasMusca On IQ tests: “Take the sequence {1,2,3,4,x}. Only someone clueless about induction would answer 5 as if it were the only answer. And not only clueless, but obedient enough to want to think in a certain way.” Sad that they’re so used. – via @nntaleb: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:18 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@AutomaticEarth Debt Rattle January 16 2019 | EU approval of Roundup was based on docs straight out of Monsanto propaganda texts. Now Canada sees no risks in Roundup. We seriously risk losing this one. High time for new weapons. @nntaleb https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2019/01/debt-rattle-january-16-2019/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZLzTbKG5CO”>  pic.twitter.com/ZLzTbKG5CO Permalink 3:09 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@paulportesi The problem with modernity-abundance. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/YiddishProverbs/status/1085408117964312581   Permalink 10:23 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Yes – it has arrived. @ErwanLeCorre @MovNat pic.twitter.com/JYUmW2rx05 Permalink 4:08 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb As with GMOs & Pinker boy, I do not aim at changing the mind of bigots, IQ pple, psychologists, & pseudostatisticians. All I can do is expose them & change the mind of a certain intelligent audience. And it works. pic.twitter.com/iJcZfiIZ55 Permalink 12:38 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@alexandersquats This is textbook Lindy! https://twitter.com/Arch_Revival_/status/1085153000421756929   Permalink 10:30 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Which shows the circularity of IQ scores. Psychometrics is a scam, which shows in so many respects. pic.twitter.com/mIy3F9iVzf Permalink 10:19 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@FattestFatTony I ain’t “smart” enough to know what intelligence is, but I been around enough suckers to know what it ain’t. #ViaNegativa https://twitter.com/PersuasionRisng/status/1085206671612436480   Permalink 10:07 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Let’s start with an elementary QUIZ that the psychologists (& the mountebanks s.a. @charlesmurray) seem to be implicitly flunking. pic.twitter.com/KzxNoh8FTe Permalink 9:41 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@Gavelascos @nntaleb please tweet something about this pic.twitter.com/Ojorg97g8z Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@PersuasionRisng I’d point out that the top 25% of janitors score higher IQ than the bottom 25% of college professors. Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I’ve called people “imbeciles” for vastly more intelligent remarks. Permalink 7:17 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb CIRCULARITY If MDs and academics tend to have a “IQ” slightly informative (higher on a noisy average), it is largely because to get into schools you need to score on a test similar to “IQ”. Probability and statistics confuse the psychologist and other fools. https://twitter.com/jonathanwilson/status/1085190318662725632   Permalink 7:14 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s @ericsachsPhD was involved in getting “scientists” to sign studies ghostwritten by Monsanto. Documents show he gave marching orders to discredit our precautionary principle paper. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/Thibault_Lec/status/1085157467393327106   Permalink 5:32 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Sir Michael Atiyyah’s family and the Roman emperor Alexander Severus come from the same village in North Lebanon. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1084053084014370817   Permalink 2:05 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@normonics NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT @nature wtf is this pic.twitter.com/jq5IHukGY2 Permalink 1:35 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You cannot be more stupid than that. Monsanto (via its active shills) managed to make people believe SCIENCE = SCIENTISM Our paper(s) on precaution under dimensionality: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/antonioregalado/status/1084864808963444737   Permalink 12:11 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb These are the idiotic analogies to avoid: running speed is unidimensional in a fixed environment, intellect has yuuuuuuuge dimensionality in fast moving complex domains. Stop this race/attributes BS. https://twitter.com/darrenknewell/status/1084739524154912769   Permalink 7:42 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@oldlevantine Can’t wait!! The Thirty-Year Genocide: Turkey’s Destruction of Its Christian Minorities, 1… https://www.amazon.com/dp/067491645X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_lajpCb5ETACRM   via @amazon Permalink 5:37 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@Extrachelle Variant of the #Phoenician alphabet https://twitter.com/josh_lipson/status/1084629270436167680   Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb There was NO “substantive” correction to the IQ piece. Not even ONE single valid commentary by psychs. Asking Charles Murray for probabilistic points is no different from asking a Lower East Side astrologist to discuss relativistic quantum mechanics. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 3:30 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A friend, yesterday: ME “Long time. How are you doing?” HIM “Busy period. I have a lot to do. How about you?” ME “I am doing a lot, tons of things, because I have nothing to do.” https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1084592176925982720   Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@wtgowers James Watson (as in Crick &) has been stripped of certain honours at a NY lab thx to comments about race and intelligence. If you’re worried that he is simply stating uncomfortable truths, this great blog post should reassure you. https://gcbias.org/2018/03/14/polygenic-scores-and-tea-drinking/   Permalink 3:34 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@statwonk It’d be interesting to see this plotted by distance from where the IQ concept was invented. It’s probably just geographic distance between the test makers and takers. Permalink 3:29 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb C- Selects for obedient idiots who don’t get the problem of induction. (from a discussion with @paulboghossian ) pic.twitter.com/p2nGBhadMD Permalink 3:27 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb B- WHY THE ERROR RATE FOR ONE INDIVIDUAL IS YUUUGE pic.twitter.com/kinX6vxVNW Permalink 3:25 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Added 2 additional arguments in the IQ paper- A- WHY NATIONAL IQ IS A FRAUD https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sVoBz1WYvT”>  pic.twitter.com/sVoBz1WYvT Permalink 3:24 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists hope that I did not look at the literature. This, adjusted for padding, is astrology. pic.twitter.com/MsfLjCD0Qn Permalink 12:45 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb HEURISTIC: In any profession, when someone becomes rich and/or famous and starts socializing or attending organized gatherings w/the rich & famous & members of the IAND*, you can start counting the time until the big blowup. * International Association of Name Droppers Permalink 10:23 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@timjburrows @nntaleb has a lot to say about this. Averages quoted without variance, precision without confidence interval. List goes on. Worse, even if accompanying data were provided, majority of pop would be none the wiser. Permalink 10:11 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, what kind of magazine is Aeon? Thanks. Permalink 8:34 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 (cont, 2 ) Also learned that “PhD” researchers who BS about “IQ” (and RACE) don’t get that if IQ correlates to performance at 50% (the beeeeeesssst of cases), that it can only explain less than 16.7% of said performance. Idiots. Permalink 7:30 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 (cont) Also learned that “PhD” researchers who BS w/buzzwords don’t understand basic inference; the notion of variance. Worse, race idiots think that if a country has “IQ”=82 (assuming “IQ” is real), that ALL will have IQ=82. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082713050837336065   Permalink 7:26 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 Learned that psychologist involved in “IQ” fail to understand very basic notions they are using. Such as correlations. Not talking about higher dimensions “g”, nonlinear correlations, etc. Not talking abt quacks like Molyneux, but academic psychs. pic.twitter.com/aVQoCvh33H Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@Extrachelle They, all, deadlifted too. You can see it in their eyes. pic.twitter.com/YuXTSKK3vO Permalink 5:56 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Voila: a problem with PCAs that psychologists are not getting. Science is hard. #fooledbyrandomness https://twitter.com/Zusehrverkuerzt/status/1084388417474056192   Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- WHAT I LEARNED IN 2018 Learned from @Mangan150 that seed oil (Not #Lindy) is actually only tested in theory, & maybe be v. inflammatory. (Went nuts yesterday on Air France when I saw the smallprint for the “olive oil/balsamic” small bottle: 38% olive/37% sunflower.) Permalink 1:12 PM – 12 Jan 2019

@ClarkeMicah You don’t *use* the scientific method if you invent ailments and claim diagnoses on the basis of unfalsifiable subjective guesswork. https://twitter.com/nancydoylepsych/status/1084173391811276800   Permalink 11:55 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb What I learned in 2018: Learned from @Safaitic that written language often had nothing to do with spoken languages. The former later makes its way via the minority rule. It is conceivable that Jesus spoke a Galilean dialect not Aramaic, but used Aramaic for harangues. Permalink 7:51 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “left” is just as owned by weapon makers as the “right”. https://spectator.us/left-tulsi-gabbard/   Permalink 5:20 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb With @EmanuelDerman @jim_gatheral pic.twitter.com/yeLuVbRRij Permalink 3:45 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Sir Michael Atiyyah, British/GrecoPhoenician (Greek-Orthodox from North Lebanon), most decorated mathematician, charming man, RIP. Permalink 3:42 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I see some IQ “holes” in research. Please help if you are familiar with literature 1) Has anyone measured within individuals IQ test variance (you take the test, get different score) ? 2) Has anyone controlled for Chinese characters reading (as training for IQ tests)? Permalink 2:28 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Molyneux-Quack has same explanation for Mesopotamia that Nazis & Aryan supremacists gave for the decline of Modern Greeks: “They are different people” (illegal immigration +cousin marriages). Until came science; ancient DNA shows it’s just not true. https://twitter.com/mgpolitis/status/1084026383133741056   Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “cousin marriage” (CM) ad hoc to explain the degradation of Mesopotamia is crackpot: – Parsis, the MOST successful community ever (only~50k) encourage CM – Lebanese Greek Orth ban it, not Maronites & no differential in success – Was practice common earlier? (ergodicity) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082621586044264448   Permalink 1:09 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@Mangan150 The fakest of fake news. How anyone believes this is beyond me. Skipping breakfast even once a week might increase risk of type 2 diabetes https://abcn.ws/2AgRhTe   Permalink 7:32 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@EHSANI22 Genghis Khan valued Loyalty so highly that when when followers of his chief rival Jamukha handed him, rather than reward the men he had them all executed in front of the leader they had betrayed. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@FattestFatTony Looking for enemies is a suckers game but letting them find you is the oldest free marketing known to man… #Lindy Permalink 3:25 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@thackerpd 1/6 Emails shows #Monsanto orchestrated a behind the scenes retraction of Seralini’s paper on #GMOs. David Saltimiras w/ #Monsanto started “the last rites of Seralini” with an email to Sir Colin Berry. @NaomiOreskes @sejorg @TimothyAWise @industrydocs @sfoucart @fastlerner pic.twitter.com/cHnFBz9Jgu Permalink 4:55 AM – 11 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Pasquale, you are a professional probabilist and statistician. You are a scholar. Molyneux is a crank. Please do not engage him. Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychology. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1083354728023707648   Permalink 9:30 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@yaneerbaryam How can there be enough skin in the game to stop this? @nntaleb https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/former-ceo-pleads-guilty-to-fentanyl-spray-kickback-scheme/2019/01/09/f25d3cea-1452-11e9-ab79-30cd4f7926f2_story.html   Permalink 7:26 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #daoofcapital #SunTzu #TheArtofWar pic.twitter.com/dY9BogrsWo Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@thackerpd How did #Monsanto try to spin the carcinogenicity of #glyphosate and attack @IARCWHO? Documents show they hired a PR firm to plant op-eds targeting Washington Post & USA Today https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Benbrook-expert-report-November-2018.pdf   @NaomiOreskes @NaomiStarkman @TimothyAWise @industrydocs @sfoucart @fastlerner ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/A573FTfAr1″>  pic.twitter.com/A573FTfAr1 Permalink 4:54 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “Daf Yomi” or occasional Daf is the best way to learn …Eastern Aramaic. And there is no better way than to listen to a Syrian Rabbi such as rabbi David Mansour. https://twitter.com/JYuter/status/1083327159752671232   Permalink 3:41 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb After 4 days of diluvial rain from angry Zeus, Baal & other gods, stuck at home running Monte Carlo genetics simulations while eating stuffed grape leaves and busting IQ and race idiots on Twitter, finally the storm ended … and a lot of snow covering Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/0vWKtHNBDV Permalink 2:12 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb *Footnote: clearly I don’t insult not ALL psychologists, just those who put people & races in”idiot” IQ boxes or similar things…) Permalink 12:59 PM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists use “IQ” to politely put people & entire races in boxes with the label “idiots”, and stick them there for a lifetime. They ruin people’s careers and potentials. Politely. I call psychologists (& IQ mountebanks) idiots to their face. Not politely. Permalink 5:23 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This Q is the fraudulent type psychologists give you. You NEVER interview someone w/o some background credentials w/far more information than IQ, a measure made by low “I” psychologists. In the REAL WORLD there is something called a CV! https://twitter.com/rammbling/status/1082986472834138112   Permalink 5:13 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NEXT BS PSYCHOLOGY BUSTING project: Count how many of these “biases” are errors or we have the wrong model. E.g. “sunk cost” not an error if you use P/L as info from environment. Heuristic in #SkininTheGame: if not present in Erasmus, it doesn’t exist Remember Psych is BS #Lindy pic.twitter.com/Iv6eRtNLT4 Permalink 3:42 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb They designed my technical book cover How to Design a Great Book Cover by @TuckerMax https://link.medium.com/zhZGp7uSkT   Permalink 3:26 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Typo 16.67% pic.twitter.com/nau8cTHdy0 Permalink 2:39 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Version 2: turns out that the IQ story is vastly worse than I initially thought. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1eIasgDkqs”>  pic.twitter.com/1eIasgDkqs Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ FACTS The highest correlation IQ to “performance” (with yuuuge massaging) is .5 [not eliminating the resemblance between said performance and test] The pick up is only 13% Psychologists are kluuuueless about some basics. pic.twitter.com/ZOR9igEEDp Permalink 12:07 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (very very simple) IQ is said to correlate at .5 with performance. You hire an employee with above average IQ. What is the probability of above average performance? What is the probability if there were 0 correlation with performance? Assume Normal distr. Permalink 10:57 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb To understand Wittgenstein’s ruler: Any MEASURE of IQ or intellectual abilities or anything related to intellect that does not give #Molyneux a score in the bottom 8% of the population is patently a wrong measure. pic.twitter.com/gGtokyl2Fu Permalink 4:04 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@TeslaAircraft This is exactly @nntaleb’s dictatorship of the small minority (which I think is great in this case). We only stay at hotels with chargers, but people without EVs don’t care if the hotel has one or not. This phenomenon accelerates adoption. @elonmusk https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   https://twitter.com/thehoff525/status/1082328699737960449   Permalink 2:05 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is actually much worse when you consider that Meds were extensions of Caucasus/Persia/Anatolia; Greeks were much much ethnically closer to Persians, Assyrians & Phoenicians than to “Europeans” as the demarcation is fake. https://twitter.com/GhostVirusX/status/1082756180814979072   Permalink 1:54 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, if one of the variables is fat tailed… Always a problem when pple use mechanistic regressions without knowing probability. Further, THERE IS NO BASIS FOR NATIONAL IQ. Even if there were differences in averages, VARIANCE swamps the local information. Science is hard pic.twitter.com/viK5meA1yf Permalink 12:51 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Clint Eastwood w jeddé Saliba Skandar l mesh3ir by @jadabdala https://link.medium.com/gl2C152PjT   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Which brings us to a statistical Quiz. What is the distribution of the regression slope? @GarettJones I will be nice to you because you deadlift. But you need to understand the ERROR rate of a regression slope. Otherwise, NO regression. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/VKem5V6lWm Permalink 12:13 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb STATISTICAL BUSTING TRAINING 101 How many data points (sampled within the same data) do you need to add to change the slope from positive to negative? @GarettJones, this is no longer called a regression. This is called intellectual fraud. pic.twitter.com/PcjBqRVKKd Permalink 10:58 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Time to make public what we’ve been laughing quietly about. We figured out the salaries of some of the bitter IQ psychologists in this debate (public records from state U). They earn less than NY Uber drivers. https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1076933024439250945   Permalink 10:52 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “The four most influential moderns: Darwin, Marx, Freud, and (the productive) Einstein were scholars but not academics. It has always been hard to do genuine – and no perishable – work within institutions” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Serious question. Have you ever done a regression before? Permalink 10:14 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@The_Cyrenian THIS IS OFFICIALLY MY FAVOURITE TWEET OF ALL TIME. There is nothing more beautiful, nothing more satisfying, than seeing a real intellectual expose the fake-intellectual and closet-racist that is Stefan Molyneux. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082607889309683713   Permalink 10:13 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb COUNTRY IQ This may not give you much information (nonhomogeneous migration patterns) but it certainly tells you that “country IQ” and genetics is a scam. pic.twitter.com/JLqxqWF0Hu Permalink 9:11 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOW an intelligent question. Cultural changes, mostly accelerated in past 200 y. https://twitter.com/alanizBTC/status/1082630721779523586   Permalink 5:33 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1) No, it was not Ghengis Khan who sacked Baghdad but his grandson Holagho 2) That they killed all the locals is fiction (from balance X vs Y chr) 3) Only someone like PrimatebrainedMolyneux can believe 1)Asian IQ genetic superiority & 2) degradation in IQ from male replacement Permalink 5:18 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I do not debate charlatans. I EXPOSE them to others. Permalink 4:55 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This inbreading/cousin marriage theory is another crackpot by IQ-genes-race pple who NEED to find genetic (not cultural) degradation. First effect of inbreeding is systematic diseases. & you see MORE among Ashkenazis so stop the IQ link & crank-science. https://twitter.com/Titus_Pullo55/status/1082620263697661952   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Do you fucking think I am stupid enough to not check Babylonian genetics? Permalink 4:37 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame dictates not talking about an idea (such as #SkinintheGame) shallowly, w/o a deep investment, here is my recitation of Hammurabi’s code in ancient Babylonian (Akkadian) w/proper Semitic gutturals. Yes, I know enough Babylonian to argue Molyneux is a fraud in it. pic.twitter.com/CYCHTrhS1p Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Mesopotamia Invented Metallurgy, Agriculture, Writing, Sailing, theWheel, Chemisty, Pharma, Astronomy, LAW,(co)algebra, Algor, Calendar, Maps, Metrics… Maintained techno superiority for 4600/5000y of history. So fraudster @stefanmolyneux now arbiter of their inferior “IQ”. pic.twitter.com/uGxSiIlJ0q Permalink 4:00 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychology. https://twitter.com/chsommers/status/1082397016821501953   Permalink 2:03 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The ONLY test of intelligence that counts is to see if the person detects Wittgenstein’s ruler situations: 1) When you use a ruler to measure the table, you are also using the table to measure the ruler. 2) The more unexpected the measurement, the more you apply W’s ruler. Permalink 12:51 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild Nassim Taleb’s recent attack on psychology and IQ “science” emerged too late for me to work into this essay, but it could be easily incorporated. If his campaign surprised you, politically or intellectually, maybe this will help. https://www.firstthings.com/article/2019/02/taleb-the-philosopher   Permalink 4:29 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 6) But the grand doyen of Statistical BS Busting is the great @spyrosmakrid who started in the 1980s! He is the M in the M-competitions. He was 10y early figuring out the scam w/hypertension treatment. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1081434668476612608   Permalink 3:36 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5) BS Busting by probability people seems to have become a specialty. We now have an army! https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1082390431344852992   Permalink 3:20 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4) @HarryDCrane is making evidence a better place. LEARN FROM HIM. Remember that there is no scientific “evidence” w/o statistical significance. Meanwhile, I am focusing on the Fat Tails aspect as it mushrooms the problem of naive & pseudo-empiricism. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1082079005505916933   Permalink 2:34 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@Wurux @nntaleb https://twitter.com/UnwobblingPivot/status/1081632438663761920   Permalink 1:28 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb “European” is meaningless a genetic term. Western Eurasia is the correct one. Permalink 1:13 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb First meeting of the localist society for the promotion of the Neo-Canaanite language in a Starbucks near Byblos. Thank you everyone for the spontaneous gathering! pic.twitter.com/HlCrlSfxdi Permalink 8:57 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3) My problem is with charlatans such as @michaelshermer with their promotion of “empirical evidence” in the name of “science” –not aware of spurious correlations, exactly the opposite of statistical inference. They argue from “facts” based on above spuriousness. Permalink 8:42 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @AOC @ronpaul #paygo #paytoday #freelemonade pic.twitter.com/Fa6zGnRphY Permalink 5:33 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wrong to say 1300 y ago. Lebanon spent 500 y under Ottomans who maintained most aspects of Byzantine Empire. They kept ethnicities separate, under self administration (Millet system), so the Rum Millet (i.e. “Roman”) were same citizenship: Greece, Anatolia, Romania, East Med. Permalink 2:43 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@coryklippsten The last two weeks of his anti-IQ push have been primarily about ending the practice of using the tests for anything OTHER than its original purpose, which was to identify people with low intelligence. The correlation between IQ and success disappears above 100. Permalink 5:36 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@normonics This guy @sapinker did not address the critique of NNT because he probably does not understand it. But it is straightforward statistics: 1) interarrival times are too long to make any strong claims and 2) a stationary distribution with alpha implying NO MEAN best explain the data https://twitter.com/52_insights/status/1081910305477808128   Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here I explain. It’s not that correlation is not causation, but that correlation is not correlation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 4:15 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Let me give the most concentrated lecture about statistics/Data Science. Statistics is about avoiding the mistake below. The rest is (more or less complicated) footnotes. pic.twitter.com/xLYPE6pcAf Permalink 3:57 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness, she took communion there, which is beyond mere attendance. On paper, the Greek-Orthodox church technically bans us from taking communion in any other church. But the rule is not enforced and most people don’t know about it. Permalink 11:37 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Hilaaaarious! Exactly as predicted. Within HOURS. You can play a BS vendor like a violin. pic.twitter.com/vewi6O2igd Permalink 11:31 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@BLebnene Sorry for the back and forth. We have final settled for a meet up with @nntaleb tomorrow Monday, January 7, 2019. The meeting will be held in Jbeil (Byblos.) We will confirm the venue shortly; but it will be somewhere near the old souk. (New Yorker Cup for example) Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exaaaaaaaactly as predicted by previous 2 tweets in thread! Only half a day later. You block a psychologist or some similar small time BS vendor, they call you arrogant/egomaniac and will make all the mistakes in the book. Which BS vendor should I tick-off next? pic.twitter.com/O00CFDEbFo Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Salafis managed to get a Sunni Muslim Lebanese woman politician to apologize for attending church service, something that has been part of the fabric of Lebanese society. Result of Saudi funding of intolerance over the past 50y. Will happen in the West. pic.twitter.com/6hs5jhZ7K3 Permalink 10:20 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I think Pinker survives on statistical ignorance. Nothing else. https://twitter.com/jacyreese/status/1081950190972604416   Permalink 8:48 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@semacks In which Pinker completely ignores that @nntaleb published a paper that shatters the entire “violence is in decline” thesis and waves his hands about black swans more generally. Taleb’s paper actually covered the substance of Pinker’s argument: https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=851091091009083095089127115110075099034023058067019062072066004100009103081023097123034016097101060099003106115098003095116092026058012038004029004118103111073028059062024121067073124072085091092069010121104097107075021088001008095027011086119103085&EXT=pdf   https://twitter.com/52_insights/status/1081910305477808128   Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@Spfannenschmidt f(x) is not x Primary lesson from #RWRI Permalink 6:18 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why one needs an IQ test by some unintelligent rent-seeking psychologist to see if one is good at math when mathematical abilities are DIRECTLY and rapidly observable. https://twitter.com/zach_pinto/status/1081739672936693760   Permalink 6:14 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 debate told Mountebank @CharlesMurray that in France, Protestants & Jews were ~1% of population, had ~ share of Nobels & wealth. Are French Protestants a different race? Minorities everywhere fare disproportionately well. Disentangling genes from culture impossible. Permalink 5:00 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That fraud Molyneux made similar racist remarks linking me to the IQ of a presumed “ethnicity”. Alt-Right pple tend to suffer from clinically low levels of intelligence. Incidentally, for these cranks obsessing over race-IQ, East Med genetics haven’t changed since the Bronze age pic.twitter.com/qoSHaeRjJa Permalink 4:42 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Please don’t spread the information. Permalink 6:59 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It showed 84½ . Any problem with that? Permalink 6:47 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb When I went to finance, I discovered that those who *tawk* about money were the ones who didn’t have it, couldn’t make it, or wanted a lot more but couldn’t get it. Same problem with IQ. Those who insist on measuring IQ are … the most stupid. Permalink 6:17 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb His “country IQ” (U=used for racemongering) comes from education (test scores), which tends to FOLLOW not CAUSE devlpment Mr @GarettJones did you look at the dynamics? Countries like Korea/Switzerland had low literacy/education, got rich, THEN high education… see #Antifragile https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1081697009155768320   Permalink 5:55 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Income is not a measure of performance. But it is the LEAST nonsensical for analysis where things wash out. Plus I can use $5 to buy a meal. You cannot “eat” IQ points, SAT points, or vague academic notions such as prestige, rank, had picture taken with the Queen, etc. https://twitter.com/andrewronmo/status/1081714204090875904   Permalink 4:59 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Even when there is correlation between IQ and performance, it is SWAMPED by noise. Is it me or that psychologists have NO notion of noise? pic.twitter.com/pvENuD8oD8 Permalink 4:46 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Fat Tony Quotient = Intelligence Permalink 3:37 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb National average IQ is BS Permalink 3:27 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is called Intelligence. https://twitter.com/steveroh/status/1081691743576342528   Permalink 3:21 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ may correlate (noisily) to Income because of the circularity/employee effect. But it does not correlate to wealth. What’s in a name? “I” should be removed. PsycholobSers have the wrong definition of IQ. Permalink 3:20 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@NonMeek The first #Offshorecomic linked to @nntaleb’s [ https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39  ] ist fertig. Stay tuned for more. #IQ is for obedient losers [part 1 of x]. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sFnlgFVHHY”>  pic.twitter.com/sFnlgFVHHY Permalink 10:02 AM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb FRIDAY QUIZ (rephrased for clarity) pic.twitter.com/kSb9AnykLY Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb When someone refers to psychology “results” for backup, ask: what is the SINGLE significant result psychologists have discovered that is both correct and not well known (and used) by ancients, used car salespeople, magicians, & swindlers. Ignore psychologists. #Lindy. Permalink 9:53 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Founders of statistical “science” were mathematicians (probability). They understood the properties (& conditions) for tools they designed. But users of stats are clueless parrots blabbering words like “correlation”. NEVER teach statistics to those who don’t know probability. Permalink 6:11 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this fellow @DegenRolf that all these contradictions are telling us is that variance of results from the IQ measure increases with IQ. Not a good thing. Please explain it slowly to him. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1081118653737824256   Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Years ago I waged a war against “Value at Risk”, an equally bogus measurement; like IQ, had a bunch of nerds clinging to it because “we have nothing better”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=78&v=6QiiFSOrJhQ   Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Yes, indeed, systematically getting rid of people by blocking/muting. https://twitter.com/angiejchelala/status/1081169805355483137   Permalink 5:01 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That’s why social science failed to get convexity/#Antifragility (or something as elementary as Jensen’s Inequality). https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1080800546813034499   Permalink 4:54 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb First blunder of 2019: Bought a Medieval Byzantine bio of Saint Symeon the Theologian thinking it was Saint Symeon the Stylite στυλίτης. Took me a while to realize it. pic.twitter.com/A7JSjcZNsE Permalink 3:59 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@YiannisArch This is the dorkiest response I’ve ever read. All praise king Taleb @nntaleb. And welcome to all his new fans who are surprised to see *high IQ* academics unable to understand a via negativa argument. https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1080978692250034176   Permalink 2:02 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@mrraoofi @nntaleb has a talent in procuring enmity of charlatans and/or the ignorant. But I had never seen so much negative reaction to his previous works as to the present one about IQ. Everybody seems to be screaming and crying. Well-done sir! Permalink 10:51 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, can someone find in this promo by propagandist @SteveStuWill info: – How many of these 1% fared “well” compared to 2%, 3%, .1%, etc? – Variance for 1% compared to other brackets – Any HARD correlation (not words) s.a. $ income? Ευχαριστώ πολύ! https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1080856310063788032   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@FamedCelebrity I think the reason people get so angry over the IQ (test score) debate is akin to the heat in evolution arguments. That is, they are not interested in the subject matter per se, but in its supposed implications. Permalink 4:48 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have the illusion that I am writing this critique of IQ for them. No. Never argue theology w/a Salafi Sheikh. Psychologists are the losers in & out of campus. I am writing to expose the lack of rigor of these “metrics” to “intelligent” scientists & Fat Tonies. Permalink 2:40 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The best map fallacy in The Technical Incerto, Vol 2. Geoff Miller is clueless. pic.twitter.com/bs4oqMRTVp Permalink 2:22 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Replaced the thread with this article https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 1:39 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@AhsanDeliri I find it amusing to see that @nntaleb took down the IQ Industrial complex not by defining what it is, but simply highlighting what it isn’t. It isn’t science, or predictive. Stripped of all that, Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare. Permalink 1:30 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Hello @StuartJRitchie, can you answer the following? Feel free to ask the geniuses in psychometrics. IQ below 100 correlates at 90% with performance IQ above 100 correlates at 10% with performance What’s the correlation IQ to performance? Permalink 1:21 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/jA5Nhgn1Xn Permalink 9:40 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/eyBiiUhL5g Permalink 8:14 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb HINT: partial correlation includes a statement about the mean. (No psycholophaster-psychometrician saw something that elementary) pic.twitter.com/1zmoUX3ylD Permalink 8:11 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Assume to simplify that both IQ and performance are Gaussian. Permalink 5:22 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A Quiz for IQ “researchers”. Something elementary. pic.twitter.com/tqhdt9CDDU Permalink 5:04 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I don’t randomly call people “imbeciles” publicly. Only when they claim “someone doesn’t know what he is talking about ” when it turns out that they don’t know what THEY are talking abt. Singal is done. He got pretty much everything wrong, from conscientiousness to correlation pic.twitter.com/DsKZmpl3Ro Permalink 3:09 PM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 12- Year in Review Someone got my paper on forecasing and vs the “methods” of @NateSilver538. I will explain the paper in a Youtube minimooc. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 2:30 PM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb (To echo Haldane, one ounce of correct algebra is worth more than a century of verbalistic statisticopsycholophastering). https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can you go give unsollicited advice to someone else who care about your opinion? Permalink 7:25 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Need to add “not the same ting”, x vs f(x) https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1080451498067271680   Permalink 5:17 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Starting 2019 with a paper in … genetics I worked on while arguing with the IQ idiots. pic.twitter.com/PvZ90fu6Yu Permalink 4:58 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Just realized there is list of terms summarizing the INCERTO. Thanks! https://twitter.com/ArturoHerrero/status/1080439849491070976   Permalink 4:55 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@HectorIlias Cicero on IYIs and Romans vs Greeks. I’m enjoying the read a lot thanks to having read @nntaleb’s INCERTO before. pic.twitter.com/Kc9gGAgCP3 Permalink 4:00 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Still can’t get it. It DOES NOT “measure” abilities. https://twitter.com/miketranchina/status/1080277104774635520   Permalink 5:39 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I just published https://medium.com/@nntaleb/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NEVER talk about correlation 1) if you are a psychologist [they are klueless] 2) when there is nonlinearity such as IQ and performance. You can have 80% correlation with “performance” when it is 0 for positive performance, & high for negative. Compare to “SAT” and see the BS. pic.twitter.com/E7fQ9jL2iM Permalink 1:04 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb No. https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1080195496407388165   Permalink 12:57 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man Happy New Year! #blackswanman #theblackswanman #newyearsresolution #fightthefed #jiujitsu #daoofcapital #antifragile pic.twitter.com/0Bm9t7K1Ah Permalink 12:51 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Be-strayné (Happy New Year in Lebanese) Odds are, from its pronunciation, it came from *Estreine*, medieval French. As I cannot find it in Sabir and Med Lingua Franca, high probability it came from the Crusaders. @QifaNabki @PhDniX @Safaitic pic.twitter.com/LvoZEfObSl Permalink 7:23 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb No, “IQ” tests aren’t even close to what intelligence means, even excluding decision-making (wisdom). https://twitter.com/nietzsches_tash/status/1080085347680149505   Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Grateful for 2018. Graduated (again), grew my library and spent quality time thinking about risk taking. The peak has been the incredible #RWRI week, led by @nntaleb, #raphaeldouadi and @financequant. To all my RWRI friends, I wish you a year of convex optionalities Permalink 3:09 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Happy 2019 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you highly deserve but were too humble, too thoughtful, and too realistic to dare to wish for it. Permalink 5:40 PM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- Year in Review 2018: Started replying to intrusive, lenghty & boring emails in Italian, especially when the sender is not Italian. 2019: Will try Greek or Latin. Permalink 1:32 PM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I will be even more intransigent. Repeating thrice. Ciao https://twitter.com/jonhaidt/status/1079826085934714881   Permalink 11:47 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@vidythatte If you’re a fan of @nntaleb & his tweets (like me) here are his top tweets from 2018 https://www.tweet-rewind.com/nntaleb.html   Permalink 10:56 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can understand someone saying “listen, I love strangers but I am more comfortable w/my nationality, shared values” (homophily) or “neighbors get along better than rommates” (fractal localism). But making “others” genetically “inferior” using IQ “science” is quite sinister. Permalink 10:53 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL problem solved Bi-Strayné in Lebanese from: bi-Strenua or Strenia, Roman a goddess of the new year https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1079786887273959424   Permalink 9:14 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@paulportesi This is perfect. This is so funny. Nassim’s sense of humor is great. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079585825506115585   Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@Safaitic Thanks you! There is a consensus that by the 10th century the language of Arabic poetry (the qasidah) was far removed from virtually all vernaculars. Mutanabbi certainly composed in an Arabic with the vocalizations in your post but he probably didn’t grow up speaking that way. Permalink 6:42 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@NonMeek This year’s final #Offshorecomic. A tribute to the best Tweetstorm ever @nntaleb vs the journo. #IQ #success Happy new year, y’all! For more visit http://www.offshorecomic.com   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cE8Etk2XhX”>  pic.twitter.com/cE8Etk2XhX Permalink 6:05 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb F***king hypocrite; Molyneux @StefanMolyneux thinks he can manage to keep posting strings showing lower “IQ” for Africans + heritability of IQ, catering to a Nordist supremacist following… …yet claim this is not racist so he doesn’t get banned from social media. Hypocrite. pic.twitter.com/LajdHGUepl Permalink 5:44 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intelligent “current IQ” test is one that maximum number of successful pple (Gell-Mann, Feynman, Buffett, plumbers happy w/their lives, Musk, Umb. Eco) ace, & maximum number of unsucessful ones (bureaucrats, journalists, pple in jail) flunk, revised as environment changes. Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@rockwell_n2 I believe Taleb’s point is that we don’t understand the world well enough to define intelligence. What seemed intelligent in the year *blank* seemed incredibly unintelligent years later. Permalink 11:10 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain how the psycholophasters got the IQ of Goethe, Einstein? By retro-testing? And stats for IQ of math/physicists? Selfreporting bias? I don’t know one mathematician who knows his/her IQ. Only IQ of physicist we know is Feynman’s (126 as he fluncked Mensa). Permalink 7:29 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb That was what I tried to convey to that hawker-mountebank Charles Murray @charlesmurray when he wrote his gerrymandering book on how the “West” was great, redefining West as whatever has been recently successful. Permalink 5:25 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb THE SUMMARY “”IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shuffleE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, whi []” #SkininTheGame #Lindy #antifragile #FooledbyRandomness https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1076845397795065856.html   Permalink 4:48 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I find these comparisons by @StefanMolyneux insensitive, silly, and failing basic introspective recursion. Someone from Babylon/Ancient Egypt/The Med/China could have, at some point, made similar comparisons entailing Northern Europeans. Then look what happened after 1600. pic.twitter.com/LJbUCqNwo2 Permalink 4:41 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2018 – thanks to @nntaleb – was a an amazing limit related to both probability and calculus: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2018/06/27/a-fascinating-limit-to-share-with-both-calculus-and-probability-students/  . #math #mathchat Permalink 3:09 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Some overlap with the RWRI program –but much more technical. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 2:23 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An association for losers (of the Birkensock footwear category) whose major skill is scoring on a particular test. https://twitter.com/Connectitecture/status/1079501400281935872   Permalink 2:21 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY du JOUR A question for Maestro @Safaitic: how much of the diacriticals are original to Mutanabbi? Do you accept the idea that poets used a parallel language to the spoken one? https://twitter.com/almotanabby/status/1079489259814506497   Permalink 1:49 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Was it Tversky who said that all they were trying to do is formalize the corpus of used car salespeople. What shd replicate in psychology is what tricksters, illusionists, marketers, advertising pple, jilted lovers & crooks have known forever. #Lindy @ole_b_peters @stanley223 https://twitter.com/Stanley223/status/1079489173621481472   Permalink 1:40 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 32- WRAPPING UP – I said psychology was BS because something wrong between 50-100% of the time is the very definition of bul***st (a lie is wrong ~100%). – Selection of traits “tested” by IQ require predictability of future environment. – Will put everything in short article. Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- Year in Review One Tweetstorm countered close to a century of intelligence metrification (“IQ”) by nerds, & thousands of psychologists (& eugenists) who use probabilistic equations without knowing what is behind… One single Tweetstorm. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079239238053490688   Permalink 7:32 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I never made that point. Never linked “IQ” (which I didn’t consider a “measure”) to evolution. I blocked Razib Khan @razibkhan because he claimed there were “flaws” in our GMO risk arguments but could not produce any. https://twitter.com/fitchett_adam/status/1079375852079669249   Permalink 7:24 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@MorrisseyHelena I’m all for more localism and devolved powers to regions & counties. And they are lovely flags! ⁦@Telegraph⁩ pic.twitter.com/zxPcAlgpXo Permalink 4:04 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@imleslahdin I paraphrased everything in Python (using google colaboratory). I might have misunderstood though (I tinkered a lot). Please correct if there is any mistake it’s an open notebook as a github gist (you can edit and run). https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/gist/Nydhal/2bb2831b3713dade324af65a3aabb88a   Permalink 9:06 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 31- Technical point: why the PCA behind the “g” is tooooooootally BS when correlation is not constant. Their math is entertainemnet. And indeed psycholophasters DON’T get it. This is the shape of the proof, more details to fill in. pic.twitter.com/MnLxxB1kMN Permalink 8:54 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why the “g” is BS as correlation is not constant pic.twitter.com/5rs5lFVyku Permalink 8:50 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why I am blocking @sentientist Because of course if you disagree with psychology there is something wrong with you. pic.twitter.com/eW1lsL0v6s Permalink 4:03 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What @cshalizi intuited is in the variation of the PCA for a different realization; this is vastly worse. The PCA version of this https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Severe problem w/psychologists. Deary doesn’t know how PCAs work (elementary misunderstanding of probability). But if you don’t agree with their metric there is something wrong with YOU. Popper called psychs charlatans. When you disagree, there’s something in your childhood… https://twitter.com/sentientist/status/1079107954027057152   Permalink 2:13 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is an example of what the brilliant Cosma @cshalizi intuited behing the failure of “g”. And the SAT is DIRECTLY covered by IQ tests from overlap. A low IQ “correlates” with low SAT, but a low SAT doesn’t “correlate” with low IQ. Now do that with other measures covered by IQ https://twitter.com/IdentityWithin/status/1079120246693416960   Permalink 2:02 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb DATA SCIENCE TRICK DU JOUR: How to make a random covariance/correl matrix that is positive definite? pic.twitter.com/rU4n0LBuij Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@normonics People who have learned to think in the RWRI @nntaleb style have uncommon clarity around systemic risk. It is not “difficult”, but generally requires a complete cognitive re-frame. Most unwilling or unable due to prior commitments of identity. Natural for @GuruAnaerobic https://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/1078779929670619137   Permalink 6:15 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A vector of unknown dimensions. If we knew the dimensions we would be able to predict the future. (Popper/Hayek) https://twitter.com/srini_sateesh/status/1079016017672585218   Permalink 6:13 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- Year in Review People stopped giving me the wrong awards, honoris causa, etc., awards by BS vendors to resumé-building BS vendors (asinus asimum fricat). Here is the real thing. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1053256560758218752   Permalink 4:39 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@amconmag Trump “must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trump-scores-breaks-generals-50-year-war-record-syria-mattis-dunford/   Permalink 4:30 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am allergic to verbalistic Pinker-style talk abt something like “correlation”, “variance” w/o knowing what it REALLY means. Hence EVERY statistical concept needs to be rederived ab ovo. With IQ, 1000s of psychologist so far seem to NOT understand their own statistics! https://twitter.com/blackorwa/status/1078972980997341184   Permalink 4:25 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb How PCAs degrade under Fat Tails. I share code for everything in book. Since then function Random[ ] became RandomVariate[Distribution,{c,r}] pic.twitter.com/ngH1GEMKCG Permalink 3:37 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb They use a vertical form of Nestorian Syriac. pic.twitter.com/8rKA128bwn Permalink 6:07 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mongolians write in the Nestorian alphabet, still today. https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1078822762343469056   Permalink 5:32 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I asked a specific question Mr @rjhaier, whether where tweets 17,18, 27, 29, 30, 7, 6, to select a few, correpond to “recycled” old anti-intelligence research, Charlatans talk: “we are aware of the shortcomings”… or “do you have better to offer?” https://twitter.com/rjhaier/status/1078699552515866626   Permalink 3:36 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Preparing for a new fall course at NYU @nyutandon called “Data science, Fragility, & Extremes”, Mondays 6-8 PM. About 50% is from my new technical book, 50% themes within Data science. pic.twitter.com/rZ1fd2l9JT Permalink 7:58 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- Year in Review (cont) To be ethical in 2019, do each of the following repeatedly. a- Invite someone who has no friends to lunch b- Make a rent-seeking BS vendor uncomfortable (if you can, really uncomfortable) c- Help someone in needs of funds but is not asking for help Permalink 6:13 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Mr Haier,@rjhaier, “intelligence researcher” Explain where tweets 17,18, 27, 29, 30, 7, 6, to select a few, correpond to “recycled” old anti-intelligence research, if you can of course. https://twitter.com/rjhaier/status/1078339660303163392   Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@MDiPaolaMD Nothing tests real world ambiguous situations with no perfect answer except real world ambiguous situations with no perfect answer Permalink 4:10 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merci Editions Belles Lettres @BellesLettresEd pour ce dictionnaires de françois médiéval! Beaucoup plus riche que le français moderne … et le secret de Fréderic Dard. le dictionnaire est fait…par Takeshi Matsumura, de l’université de… Tokyo. pic.twitter.com/GAw7Ztr4b1 Permalink 3:36 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 30- Traders get it right away: hypothetical P/L from “simulated” strategies don’t count. Performance=actual. “IQ”: What goes in people’s head or reaction to a screen image doesn’t exist (except via negativa). And correlations in psych papers don’t count. https://twitter.com/emcilveen/status/1078475464522563585   Permalink 6:30 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Performance Real world performance https://twitter.com/ramonarobot/status/1078451554129080320   Permalink 4:47 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb IQ shd penalize some perceptional errors. IQ should accommodate perception of nonlinearity to aggregate payoffs: @yaneerbaryam picked it up right away “the mean-field error”, he said. But simplest problem is that measurements are cooked and terms like “correlation” don’t apply. https://twitter.com/davidboxenhorn/status/1078429267472646144   Permalink 3:20 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@HarryDCrane Major misunderstanding of statistics/p-values by scientists & statisticians: even if individuals control error rate exactly and correctly, we’d still have replication crisis. Cliff notes: RSS (.005 proposal) makes no sense, won’t work Long version: see https://youtu.be/vk9H246GrNQ?t=744   https://twitter.com/dougvk/status/1078353813642317824   Permalink 1:18 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1078279012068327424   Permalink 1:15 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 29- A counter by a proponent of IQ w/what “g” offers best: explains ~½ the variance w.r. to academics. No “science” shd boast a measure that fails ~50%! Worse: counting circularity, hacking, the measure shd be wrong ~ 80% of the time! This is … fraud! https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022440518301031?via%3Dihub   Permalink 1:11 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@Stefano6412 Il latino e’ una lingua spietata con chi cerca di vendere aria fritta. Permalink 11:55 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@dittoaway Sorry but that is not how IQ testing works. Trial and error won’t work because you aren’t told the correct answer. Permalink 9:11 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 29- Note Charles Murray, @charlesmurray, is responding to these with series of ad hominem attacks (I mean really ad hominem). I will retaliate by sticking to the science. Permalink 8:33 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Charles Murray, you shd at least have the decency to index the person you are trying to slander: And this is the background about your friend Harris. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967892546461556737   Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 28-CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY A flaw in the attempts to identify “intelligence” genes. You can get monogenic traits, not polygenic (note: additive monogenic used in animal breeding is NOT polygenic). The problem to some extent affect the “g” in IQ studies as it is multifactorial. pic.twitter.com/87weAlkplt Permalink 8:01 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #YellowVests #localism #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/IFU6wXcdx8 Permalink 5:18 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Isaac Levi, philosopher and probabilist, intellectual giant, RIP Few people in the past 2000 years went as deep into probability as you did. It was greatest luck to have met you. Ad vitam aeternam. pic.twitter.com/2iuU6jAuiC Permalink 4:56 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Machine Learning and Fat Tails Transcribed my M4 lecktchur @spyrosmakrid: the new nonlinear regression more effective than the old one pic.twitter.com/9JYQEzwqal Permalink 1:19 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As Karl Popper said about psychoanalysis they always come up for an explanation for failure, then ad-hoc the crap out of it. Or blame you for not knowing psychology or having narcissistic tendencies or problems with your mother. Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can always leave psychology and get a real job. Permalink 12:42 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 27- Technical note I omitted: If IQ is Gaussian *by construction* & if performance is fat tailed, then either correlation betw IQ & performance doesn’t exist or is uninformational. It will show a finite number *in sample* but doesn’t exist statistically. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 11:56 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 26- I mute/block all pple comparing IQ to a physical measure s.a. height of basketball players. IQ as presented is NOT a measure. Reminiscent of risk charlatans insisting on selling “value at risk” & RiskMetrics saying “it’s the best measure”. Metrics need to have properties. Permalink 10:29 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an asymmetry that indicates most people who believe in IQ as a measure have a low IQ’ (some “real” intelligence metric). https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1077991832741601280   Permalink 10:22 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@ddelruss Ethically (per Taleb) observing a wrong and doing nothing is to perpetuate it (I forget which book, probably SITG). So when we observe misuse of metrics, broken models, dishonest arguments, etc, we are obligated to identify them. It’s ethics, not emotion – he’s not miffed. Permalink 8:12 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 25- For IQ idiots too slow: -If a 70 IQ is certain to fail but a 150 IQ has a significant probability of NOT succeeding, the ASYMMETRY has SEVERE statistical conseq. & “correlation” is BS term. -If variance is lower at some states & higher at others,”Bell Curve” is an illusion. Permalink 7:14 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan Man told you, Donaldo, that if you own the stock market on the way up, you will also own it on the way down. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1050766705667047426   Permalink 6:21 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I deleted my tweets ag. @davidgraeber (the only tweets I’ve deleted in past years since autodelete). I wanted to convey a strong message, prevent arbitrary petitions (having myself been the victim of a Monsanto initiated petition), not weaken him. Permalink 4:41 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 24- Note 2: “IQ selects for pattern recognition, essential for functioning in modern society”. Unfiltered pattern recognition makes you #FooledbyRandomness, to overnarrate, see false positives. Economics PhDs blow up in business. “IQ” good for @davidgraeber’s “BS jobs” Permalink 4:29 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nickpahountis pic.twitter.com/4bRHfCjgsv Permalink 3:53 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@GhassanDahhan IQ tests are very similar to how psychologists measure “intelligence” of dogs. This is based on their obedience to humans and how fast they follow instructions. Therefore border collies are seen as the “smartest”, while in fact they’re the most servile IYI’s of all dogs. Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 23- Note 1: Why is Intelligence = (long term) survival? Because convexity, missed by IQ tests. You want to make those mistakes with small consequences NOT those with large ones. Academics ~ always focus on frequency of error not magnitude. Too Gaussianized. See #antifragile Permalink 7:51 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@warehouseninja read https://opinion.inquirer.net/118414/blame-passing   and was quickly reminded of @nntaleb’s #SITG “the government would keep tabs on economists’ inflation and economic growth forecasts next year to make them accountable for their projections, which consumers and businesses use in making decisions.” Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 22- This tweet storm irritated many: 1) Charlatans with something to sell: without IQ & other *testing* psychologists have little to sell society; there is a vested interest in hacking/massaging the stats & defending the products. 2) Pple who want some races to be inferior. Permalink 7:00 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If you look at my p-haking above all the numbers by the fellow are upper bound -add category selection & the story is grim. Discount the story by >½. “If IQ isn’t a valid concept, no concept in psychology is valid.” Sorry but psychology is largely bust. https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1057962295999885312   Permalink 3:30 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 20- This Tweet storm has NO psychological references: simply, the field is bust. So far ~ 50% of the research DOES NOT replicate, & papers that do have weaker effect. Not counting poor transfer to reality. How P values often fraudulent: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Same for g factor Permalink 1:36 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@HarryDCrane The best/only place to learn prob/stat is “on the street”. Concepts that are second nature in the wild become convoluted in the classroom (p-value, confidence level). https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1077611993526194176   Permalink 9:55 AM – 25 Dec 2018

IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle | Medium

Background : “IQ” is a stale test meant to measure mental capacity but in fact mostly measures extreme unintelligence (learning difficulties), as well as, to a lesser extent, a form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects. It is via negativa not via positiva. It is meant to select exam-takers, paper shufflers, obedient IYIs (intellectuals yet idiots), ill adapted for “real life”. The test is poorly thought out mathematically (a severe flaw in correlation under fat tails), and seemed to be promoted by…

IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle

Intelligence , Charlatans, IQ, Meditation, HYPERTENSION, Lindy, NYT, globalist/localist, Macron, Micron | Twitter

@nntaleb 19- A general problem w/social “scientists” & IQ idiots: they can intuit the very terms they are using. Verbalism; they have a skin-deep statistical education & can’t translate something as trivial as “correlation” or “explained variance” into meaning, esp. under nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com/4fUQuRvf1c Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@normonics It is clearly a point of identity for many. Exposing this and other fragilities as early and decisively as possible is the major project of those interested in an Antifragile world. https://twitter.com/ahsandeliri/status/1077483995057680384   Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb John, refreshing to have a physicist. The rule of thumb: if a metric explains less than 1- x% of the variance, it is not a metric. In physics the x can be as low as 10^14. In engineering, often <10^5. In psychology often >75% of the variations come from variance. Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@AhsanDeliri It seems IQ is a special sacred cow. The minute @nntaleb decided to really investigate what it is, how it’s measured, what it implies, what it leaves out, how it’s implications are inflated, all the knives came out. Permalink 12:39 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #happyholidays #safetynet pic.twitter.com/AhrXI0MPZ7 Permalink 3:24 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Peterson I said psycho”metrics is about a nonlinear pseudometric that shows mostly how dumb someone is. Try another question & make it “intelligent”. Permalink 3:15 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@BDSixsmith According to Lebanese festive traditions, Nassim St Nicholas Taleb visits your house at midnight, eats the bowl of squid ink pasta that you left for him and leaves free weights and copies of Montaigne’s Essays for your children. pic.twitter.com/YAGRhg8r6e Permalink 1:58 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Utterly confused. The Peninsulars hate Turkey even more than they hate Infidels. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1077296606809079808   Permalink 12:27 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 18- (continuing graph). So far none of the IQ-psycholophasters seem to grasp that local correlation is never correlation is the commonly understood sense. So when they say “IQ works well between 70 and 130” it means: “IQ works well between 0 and ~85, maybe”. pic.twitter.com/IAkkDP9hBm Permalink 11:44 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “So it appears that the church founders really wanted Christ to have skin in the game; he did actually suffer on the cross, sacrifice himself, and experience death.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #MerryChristmas #books #quote #Christ pic.twitter.com/MGa2UrYIR5 Permalink 8:53 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merry Christmas my friends! pic.twitter.com/xCCQxbGJuT Permalink 7:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 17- A graph that shows the synthesis of my opinion on IQ and the “reseasrch” results about it. pic.twitter.com/xZZFn4xNJB Permalink 6:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 16- So Far: “IQ” isn’t a measure of “intelligence” but “unintelligence”; it loses its precision as you move away from 70 (left tail). Where it’s most hyped (*some* jobs) it predicts ~15- 63% of the time, ~10% if you demassage data. It it were a physical test, wd be rejected. Permalink 4:56 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@TricksterDoesIt Taleb, I’m not sure I accept your stated correlation. Many of these studies have massaged the data. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4557354/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/v08eLsktTI”>  pic.twitter.com/v08eLsktTI Permalink 9:04 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (hint). pic.twitter.com/ml3X1xkKFf Permalink 8:48 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 15-” IQ” is most predictive of performance in military training, w/correlation~.5, (which is circular since hiring isn’t random). QUIZ: translate the correlation into percentage of the time IQ provides a correct answer there. Permalink 7:46 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 14- Any measure of “intelligence” w/o convexity is sterile. https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility   Permalink 1:59 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 13- For a measure to be a measure it needs to be: + UNIQUE + MONOTONIC or, at least + TRANSITIVE Hence IQ is not a measure, but something for psycholophasters to BS about. Permalink 12:02 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 12- If someone came up w/a NUMERICAL “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or oth physical qty, you ‘d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it & it will become an official measure. That’s what happened to “IQ”. Permalink 11:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- A robust use of “IQ” is for low scores for special needs pple. But then practically ANY measure would work to detect problem & improvement. Or no measure: just a conversation #Lindy. But then psycholophasters are using it like cholesterol, transferring from tails to body. Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- #SkininTheGame shows that the only robust measure of “rationality” & “intelligence” is survival, avoidance of ruin/left tail/absorbing barrier, (ergodicity). Nothing that does not account for ability to survive counts as a measure of “intelligence”– just philosophaster BS. Permalink 10:39 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@JSuchJ Interested in the ideas and books written by Nassim Taleb @nntaleb ? In this long podcast we discuss them (in Spanish) with @TorrasLuis (another RWRI alumni), @_PabloMB, @ValueInvestingS and @The_Godas https://www.academiadeinversion.com/nassim-taleb-luis-torras-juan-such-pablo-martinez-bernal-value-investing-fm/   Permalink 10:35 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- It is PRECISELY as a quant that I doubt “IQ”. I’ve spent 34 years working w/”High IQ” quants. I’ve rarely seen them survive, not blow up on tail events. Those high IQ who have survived like @financequant /Renaissance happen to be yuuugely street smart https://twitter.com/TellYourSonThis/status/1076866246270828544   Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- IQ is an academic-contrived notion. And the problem is that in academia there is no difference between academia and the real world; in the real world there is. Which explains why @primalpoly (while an honest resesrcher) can’t see where we are coming from. Permalink 8:38 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”. Remember the 1998 blowups. Permalink 8:19 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@DrBeauHightower Ever been to a Mensa meeting? Bunch of old dudes wearing sandals and socks that spend their time playing board games and chastising the world for chasing material goals. Nihilism plus backgammon. Permalink 8:17 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- If you take a Popperian-Hayekian view on intelligence, then you would realize that to measure it you would need to know the SKILLS needed in the ecology, which is again a fallacy of intellectual hubris. David Sloan Wilson joined the debate. https://twitter.com/David_S_Wilson/status/1076869012250918912   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Seems like Taleb only cares about stuff that matters IN THE REAL WORLD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- If you renamed IQ , from “Intelligent Quotient” to FQ “Functionary Quotient” or SQ “Salaryperson Quotient”, then some of the stuff will be true. It measures best the ability to be a good slave. IYIs want to build a top-down world where IYIs have the edge. Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If many millionaires have IQs around100, & 58 y.o. back office clercs at Goldman Sachs or elsewhere an IQ of 155 (true example), clearly the measurement is less informative than claimed. https://twitter.com/gorucker/status/1076847699100606464   Permalink 6:48 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Look at the hordes with “high IQ” (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion. Yuuge survivorship bias. 37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998! Permalink 6:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation. Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones. pic.twitter.com/Cs8LlNPgEO Permalink 6:25 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs. 1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John) Permalink 6:22 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@librairiefrance RT @hugowiz: “Ce serait plus simple, d’un point de vue théologique, si Dieu était Dieu et Jésus un homme comme n’importe quel autre prophète, ansi que l’islam le voit, ou que le judaïsme voit Abraham.” Jouer sa peau @nntaleb @BellesLettresEd #JoyeuxNoel pic.twitter.com/UTg9ECZdqR Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Psychologists teaching you abt “intelligence” is like choirboys teaching you racketeering, turtles teaching you flying, or nuns teaching you how to rob a bank. Remember they live off charitable contributions or, worse, state support. #Skininthegame Permalink 12:33 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb OK, having played cop with @davidgraeber now I can safely support him in *some* of his missions. Permalink 12:13 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) Correspondence with Maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath : mathematics and humor. Maestro, Rest in Peace. https://twitter.com/search?q=%20%40cuttheknotmath%20%40nntaleb&src=typd   Permalink 10:55 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) The passing of @CutTheKnotMath: every Saturday morning I feel his absence, as my routine was to solve one of his puzzles. He was generous, patient, & committed to mathematics done right. We’ll finish his “Probability Riddles” book. @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb @StuartJRitchie Permalink 9:14 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lesson 1 : Never attack someone publicly unless you know what they know about your work. (Asymmetry) Lesson 2: Never mess with nonpsychologists/real people if you are just a psychologist. Fellow @stuartjrichie didn’t see that I am basing mistakes from HIS own book on IQ . https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1076473626189357058   Permalink 8:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@ShehabiFares The so called “Syrian revolution” in one picture..! pic.twitter.com/7z6JbpsBYL Permalink 7:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Takes correlation of existing pple in profession w/IQ (even assuming no bias & stats were replicable). Now take a cohort of “high IQ” pple and correlation with a category called “failure”. What does it show? pic.twitter.com/Xv6P1gcSDg Permalink 6:53 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The real non-datamined (i.e. w/potential cherrypicking) IQ study is the Terman study. Shows “geniuses” fare no better (or only slightly better, there was a debate) than socioeconomic peers. Epi-style studies in Medicine are now rejected (85% don’t replicate). Only cohort. Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@normonics There is a deep satisfaction in exposing shills — you are fighting for the common good. And it is effective. For instance, our bottom up exposure of @kevinfolta led to the point where even other shills have disassociated from him — no one is buying his toxic lies any longer https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1076288473051656192   Permalink 5:01 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Did you know, a jump from 1 meter makes your legs stronger, a jump from 100 meters kills you. A nation of 8m is NO THE SAME as a nation of 300m. SCALE MATTERS. You can not scale communism (small scale, family), hard to copy Swissness AT SCALE/maybe impossible. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/dinapomeranz/status/1076059083856322560   Permalink 4:51 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams US Institute of “Peace” – pushes war, as it always has. We are forced to pay millions for a war-making “peace” institute. Orwell shits on us. https://twitter.com/USIP/status/1076315137185906688   Permalink 10:08 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Make sure you 1) spread the list or, better, 2) help expose shills For instance this effort helped us get @henryimiller who wrote fake scientific articles & smear scientists in Forbes & @ProSyn lose his job there & at the @HooverInst For the sake of trust in science! https://twitter.com/USRightToKnow/status/1076272623078854656   Permalink 5:29 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LINDY: we get the following: Survival rate improves past a stage: once you’ve survived long enough, time works for you even if not power law. This comes straight out of an absorbing barrier model. Note that absorbing barrier is necessary since death/survival are discrete events pic.twitter.com/1kRK6Btt3t Permalink 12:44 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@Aaragorn004 as @nntaleb said surgeons shouldn’t look like surgeons! https://twitter.com/mathematicsprof/status/1075776839530930181   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1076131927919345665   Permalink 9:19 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb So the Persians celebrate #Yalda night while the Levant celebrate sol invictus the predecessor of Christmas at about the same time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sol_Invictus   یلدا مبارک https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1076140113007206401   Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Year in Review (cont) Monsanto is no longer. Bayer that bought Monsanto lost >$40 billion in cap. The idea that GMO = “science” & Glyphosate = “safe” is going bust as no longer propped up by the propaganda machine. With the death of Monsanto, victory for science. pic.twitter.com/HxqVFuKXCr Permalink 7:05 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6) An aspect of the @davidgraeber affair: is partaking of a lynch mob (in the form of approach in thread) morally acceptable, meaning it is only bad if one is the initiator? This is the classical problem of diffusion of responsibility: is is OK if OTHERS are doing it too? Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@EdmondShami Man, the way @nntaleb cracks down on academics is one of the most awesome things ever haha pic.twitter.com/9MLFhhLxul Permalink 4:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Most problems in the world are perpetuated by bureaucrats (ignorant of complex systems) with no #skininthegame “trying to help”. Put the State Department on sabbatical & see how peace will organically erupt. Also the past was more peaceful than claimed. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 4:07 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can easily understand that someone can hate Donald Trump. But hating Trump more than loving peace is not a morally defensible position. Permalink 3:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@trishankkarthik “Abstinence much easier than moderation.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:25 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@phl43 I’d pay to see the faces of antiwar leftists in the 1970’s if they were told that 40 years later the Left, including many of their older selves, would be lamenting the resignation of a warmongering general. https://twitter.com/elianayjohnson/status/1075892750808158208   Permalink 3:45 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Trump ends illegal war in Syria. Trump may end 17 year losing battle in Afghanistan. Mattis: You’re not defending America. Well boo hoo hoo, Mattis. This is what America voted for. https://twitter.com/Elizabeth_McLau/status/1075881565216010246   Permalink 3:02 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@Ian56789 “Zuckerberg Must Resign”: Facebook Lets Corporations Read, Delete Your Messages https://theantimedia.com/facebook-let-corporations-read-delete-messages/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hq9iuKXGTS”>  pic.twitter.com/Hq9iuKXGTS Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review (cont) 4- Published 7 papers in journals mostly single author, main one is https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   on speed of Law of Large Numbers 5- Figured out to avoid seed oil, called “healthy”. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6pwzeuQZBu”>  pic.twitter.com/6pwzeuQZBu Permalink 10:51 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@normonics These fucking people are sick Book a plane ticket and go fight ISIS yourself https://twitter.com/davidafrench/status/1075595073734230021   Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- My take on the Curse of Dimensionality. We’ve known about it for >30 years yet some idiotic geneticists keep doing multi-genes studies (especially the GMO types). People in computer science are vastly more aware. Also see “computational irreducibility” by Wolfram. pic.twitter.com/i6LDLri6Pb Permalink 8:11 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Here’s the guy who actually took a trip to Syria with McCain and Lindsey Graham and successfully pushed for the US to ARM TERRORISTS to overthrow the Syrian government. If I were Little Marco I would STHU about Syria because blood of thousands is on his hands. https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1075465661923631109   Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Attempts by some to identify “intelligence genes” reveals statistical incompetence: for monogenic traits/mutations we can identify genes, for > there is a CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY meaning we need a yuuuuge sample of >10^30 people to have an idea about multivariate properties. Permalink 7:57 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- The problem with “liberals” tagging to someone an identity/race/category to minoritify is that it makes race salient so you end up particularizing the general. Humans have zillions of dimensions & it gets absorbed into a category. Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4- Aside from LLN, idiots make claims abt the distribution of maxima from individuals. As I wrote in TBS, if all terrorists were Sunni Salafis, only ~ 0.0001 of Sunni Salafis are terrorists meaning you are wasting statistical time discriminating ag single individuals. Permalink 6:53 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My forth book in March (Vol 1, Techn Incerto) shows how little mechanistic statisticians undertand the law of large numbers (LLN). Some claims can only be made for large aggregates. The LLN requires muuuuuuuch more than they think. https://twitter.com/pirpirikos/status/1075762047269273600   Permalink 6:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075762184892887041   Permalink 6:38 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@BrankoMilan For a change Trump does something reasonable: reduce killings by withdrawing US forces (at least he says so) from Syria and “internationalist rule-based liberals” attack him because they want….a war. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nitingoyal An amazing thread on stats and how statistical ignorance leads to over medication. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1074283575288033280   Permalink 6:29 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- What people don’t get about “race” ≠ or “heritability” of traits: even it these were true & not fabrications, they wd be dominated by IDIOSYNCRATIC differences. If pple from Mars had an “IQ” lower than earth by 5%, w/variance you wouldn’t see it in ANY 2-paired individuals. Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5) @davidgraeber might not have been at the initiation of the lynch mob, just an active promoter of it (which, ethically, makes no difference). Permalink 5:47 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@unherd @nntaleb’s 2013 demolition of false certainties is the perfect book to re-read in an era of noise and confusion, writes @peterfranklin_ https://unherd.com/2018/12/why-antifragile-is-the-perfect-read-for-todays-turmoil/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) and there is a meta-vagueness; @davidgraeber then accuses those who debunk him like @QuilletteM as belonging to “alt-right” Permalink 5:25 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The approach for rounding up an academic lynch mob used by @davidgraeber 1) vageness of accusation 2) the accusation, while vague, has an association with a precise sinister past (appeal to emotion) 3) wording leaves no possibility for scientific/critical scrutiny Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MonaresTI I also had the privilege of being a student at the #RWRI. I learned a lot about statistics in real life. A doctor must ensure the safety of the least ill patient and never take away an opportunity to the one that is most in danger. SKIN IN THE GAME Permalink 4:37 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Important to remember: 1) guidelines for bloodpressure change frequently. More than 83 million adults would be recommended for high blood pressuretreatment under the new (2018) system compared to 72 million under the prior recommendations. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1074283575288033280   Permalink 2:50 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@golchhaJ Came across the French word ‘glander’ / ‘glandouiller’ through @nntaleb : “It means “to idle”, though not “to be in a state of idleness” (it is an active verb). Gandouiller denotes enjoyment. [It] is what children without soccer moms do when they are out of school.” Permalink 1:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IlitbtgNWz Permalink 5:27 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- There is a category of bubblegumheads (say @jaketapper ) who not only overgeneralize but misgeneralize on top: say turning the pullout in Eastern Syria as a US vs Putin. Quite insulting for the citizens there with #skininthegame Permalink 2:04 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/l0nu2kQcIG Permalink 1:37 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There has been an epidemic of generalizing every tiny individual & particular conflict in life into something large & systemic, tied to “exploitation”, “race”, “gender”, “colonialism”, & ancestral “privilege”. Same pple view the world top-down & see benefits in centralization. Permalink 1:35 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Germany’s most important journal Der Spiegel says top journalist faked stories for years. @nntaleb https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/top-der-spiegel-journalist-resigns-over-fake-interviews?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review 2018 vs plan 1- Was more intransigeant 2- Went to Malta after yeaaaaars of trying 3- pic.twitter.com/2HGVscWm0S Permalink 7:22 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@Marcellenassif Sample of a Lebanese Christmas Eve ;) Featuring the FAMILY pic.twitter.com/k3sglqsfUL Permalink 6:17 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When two “experts” diagree, consider the possibility at least one of them is not an expert. https://twitter.com/tarik_a/status/1075387357224992768   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My definition: 1- Something is locally Antifragile with respect to a variable x (that is in a range, for x ∊ [L, H]) if and only if it has a locally convex response to such variable (i.e. f(x+∆x)+f(x-∆x)> 2 f(x) for all x ∊ [L, H]). [GAMMA APPROACH] 2- [VEGA APPROACH] Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, thank you Twitter @jack for protecting us from “state actors” from Saudi Arabia trying to dig information about us. In my case Saudi Arabia can easily get information about me, they don’t need hackers. This was sent yesterday to pple targeted by the “state actors”. pic.twitter.com/08v2Xr3MmG Permalink 2:58 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “Saudi Arabia Is Going Bankrupt” Taleb Exclaims After Seeing Kingdom’s Latest Budget | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-18/saudi-arabia-going-bankrupt-taleb-exclaims-after-seeing-kingdoms-latest-budget   Permalink 5:21 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@Barnes_Law In depth technical analysis explains how Silver’s forecasts “feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis” applying double standards to measuring his on modeling. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 4:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Arabia is going to go bankrupt. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1075065883792470017   Permalink 2:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@ole_b_peters Let’s never think of utility as a currency. Currency conversion is linear, whereas the whole point of utility is its non-linearity. If we think utility is a currency, i.e. linear, we’ll miss its reference-point dependence and start believing in prospect theory. Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@Lipsie What FRACTAL LOCALISM looks like in the realm of vegetables. Tweet sponsored by @nntaleb & @VeggiesAreNoIdiots pic.twitter.com/nycm7s6Sae Permalink 6:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM & SCALABILITY Compare: Greek Cyprus to Greece (in spite of the former’s yuuuge problems since 1974) Singapore to China (and or Malaysia) Dubai to what is called “Saudi” Arabia Switzerland to Germany Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “Gli amministratori sono una maledizione da sempre – in ogni angolo del pianeta, in qualsiasi business o attività e in tutte le epoche storiche.” Rischiare grosso @nntaleb @ilSaggiatoreEd #libro #citazione #business pic.twitter.com/dyg2e2wIL6 Permalink 4:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My side of the story clearly presented. As the saying goes, an ounce of algebra clears a ton of BS, even when the BS comes from someone with >3 million twitter followers. https://twitter.com/isaacfab00/status/1074721180660056064   Permalink 7:13 PM – 17 Dec 2018

@isaacfab00 My attempt to demystify the @nntaleb vs @NateSilver538 twitter war. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 9:41 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Nation-State is an agricultural concept made by a ruler to control & better own his peasants. It is highly inimical to the Mediterranean mind. The Polis is a more adapted unit. Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony “It takes 1,000 IQ points to out wit an aggressive tinkerer” -@nntaleb Rule of thumb (#Heurstic) never trust someone who has a weird obsession with “IQ”. They’re a sucker, someone who tinks (slowly) they understand the world but dont… https://twitter.com/StefanMolyneux/status/1074219829798699008   Permalink 5:44 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb III- The US was created to be bottom up, with the Federal Gov taking a residue of spending. But when pple spend (abstract) money that is not theirs, a disproportionate amount of fat grows, & we now have yuuuge money spent on nonsense. Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb II- From the idea that communism works only on a small scale (if it ever works)=> Taxation, as in Switzerland should be bottom up. You pay in proportion to where you can SEE the money spent. 1st to the commune; Commune pays the leftover to the county, county to … to federation Permalink 3:51 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Great thread illuminating the FRACTAL LOCALISM project. 1) Communism works on a very small scale. 2) But the flip is that it has only worked with a community that is highly homogeneous (originating from Eastern Europe) and monstrously sub-ethnocentric. https://twitter.com/KaiGehring1/status/1074586553215840256   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@Extrachelle Retweeting this again bcz it’s my favourite 2018 tweet so far. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1073197627745992704   Permalink 1:59 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “… il promotore più attendibile di un prodotto è il cliente.” Rischiare grosso di @nntaleb ed. @ilSaggiatoreEd Come puoi vedere, ho acquistato il libro ;-) (11 ottobre 2018) pic.twitter.com/IOWVOzWC21 Permalink 11:57 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/n4qXhvj3gi Permalink 7:01 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I view both globalists and nationalists as the same crap: a reduction in dimensionality, a destruction of the variegated intermediate fractal layers between individual and humanity. Both aim at monoculture. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1042047309478014976   Permalink 3:32 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As you lower \mu you can see the Lindy zone and the nonlindy area. Collapse is crossing the orange line. X axis is years. pic.twitter.com/NuoM61GvMe Permalink 3:07 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism is NOT nationalism. https://twitter.com/laurentozon/status/1074254016488574977   Permalink 1:37 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Lindy https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1074386673696456704   Permalink 1:31 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Harry is a doctor and a RWRI alumni. https://twitter.com/HarryhongHong/status/1074321136761036800   Permalink 7:19 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Live Love #Jounieh! Joy to the world By @joe.sokhn #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/oKEVwo2kUz Permalink 7:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@kimberlitepipe1 “English ‘manners’ were imposed on the middle class as a way of domesticating them, along with instilling in them the fear of breaking rules and violating social norms.” @nntaleb It took me 30+ yrs to realize this and make a change. Still difficult at times, woof woof woof. Permalink 6:51 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Ancestral architecture: no Euclidian geometry, high dimensionality. Even pyramids when close show rich micro-patters (Met in NYC). Today’s architecture is “smooth”, Eucledian, & of low dimensionality. I am most comfortable in a forest, a cave, or a Gaudi bldg. pic.twitter.com/fCTy4H8I7N Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Doctors are statistically naive & their statisticians are imbeciles; they have a hard time understanding non-linear dose-response so they binarize. And pharma takes them for a ride by bucketting numbers (mildly ill + very ill produces an illusion of risk for mildly ill). pic.twitter.com/1ZRZnUCJNx Permalink 5:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb HYPERTENSION In #Antifragile: Pharma needs to medicate the mildly “sick” (hypertensive) as 1) these live long 2) >100 more midly “sick” ppl than very sick, so more profitable to “cure” the healthy Pharma reclassifies the “sick” to get clients. But relation HBP-risk is nonlinear! pic.twitter.com/1x0X9oIzxu Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@ektrit As Taleb @nntaleb says, Modern Architects design to impress other Modern Architects. https://twitter.com/archpng/status/1074254067860471808   Permalink 4:21 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@laurentozon L’arnaque c’est de confondre localisme et protectionnisme national. Lorsque vous êtes à Nice vous êtes plus proche de Gêne que de Brest, Saint-Jean-de-Luz ou Lille. MLP est centralisatrice et sa gestion du RN le démontre depuis des années. https://twitter.com/mlp_officiel/status/1066981705129623552   Permalink 2:44 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon That’s how the sun rises in #Beirut! Good morning everyone! Have a nice Sunday By @mahdifad #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/Z5Z1ICPiZC Permalink 11:25 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Being dumb and #Antifragile has worked out pretty well for me… https://twitter.com/bintsouria/status/1073984901114937346   Permalink 2:53 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Lindy is not a powerlaw but surely has local such behavior for first say 2000-10000 years. Good enough for me. A yuuge result. pic.twitter.com/2dLkdwW2Cl Permalink 1:30 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is not ART you can optionally observe in a gallery, but places and neighborhoods WE live in. We have skin in the game and the architect doesn’t. Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an additional problem with architects and modernity: reduction in the fractal dimensions of our world. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 4:37 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The problem is architects building structures to impress other architects –but plumbers don’t act on impressing other plumbers. Any activity where agents impress peers (architects, academia) rather than satisfying the needs constituents ends up rotting. #SkininTheGame https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1073918095645908992   Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb New mathematics for the Lindy Effect, expressed as absorbing barrier (extinction barrier). This is the INTUITION of the method. Yuuuge results once we use Girsanov to include drift, or switch to geometric Brownian motion. #Lindy @financequant pic.twitter.com/OXMrClJMS5 Permalink 4:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Classical mistake by historians and philologists treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. (Lond discussion in #TheBlackSwan) https://twitter.com/Jorrit_Kelder/status/1073548679859048448   Permalink 3:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb M4 is a SYSTEMATIC test of machine learning techniques, not some cherry picked concoction in an “evidence based” “data science” paper. There is NO other systematic test of predictability than @spyrosmakrid’s “M” competitions. On to M5. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1073897208834113537   Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (Journalistic) noise is to signal what a cancer cell is to a healthy one. Permalink 3:08 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@NECSI It is the degree of opacity and uncertainty in a system, as well as asymmetry in effect, rather than specific model predictions, that should drive the precautionary measures. Push a complex system too far and it will not come back. pic.twitter.com/KTPDM6uaBR Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Dec 2018

@john_f_hamer “It takes a lot of skills to be virtuous without being boring.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am plagiarizing @HarryDCrane for my own course next spring, particularly the last sections on Antifragile. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1073079657212321792   Permalink 5:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The main point from the M4 competition is not that traditional stats > machine learning, but that BOTH have a horrible record; we cannot use forecasting for any RISKY exposure. Hence a protocol for precaution in specific domains. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1072502840407527425   Permalink 5:17 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wrote 4 Op- Eds in the NYT so this is not a matter of access. I just despise them. Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What we calls different conservatism is militarism. Kristop has the intellectual rigor and clarity of thought of a poorly boiled cauliflower. https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1073538845671604225   Permalink 4:53 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Remember that the NYT, while promoting platitudinous & vague notions such as “integrity”, “truth”, etc. was behind the Iraq war, regime change, and other monstrosities. The NYT is a cover for warmongers & managed to convert the pseudo-left to militarism. Permalink 3:55 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/TalebQuotes/status/1073485426105577472   Permalink 3:47 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When someone announces, self-referentially, “I have integrity and virtue”, look for the fraud. If NYT wanted to show *virtue* they shd say: “We take RISK for the Truth, even if uncomfortable to us & causes us to be ostracized by the MONOCULTURE/Weapon makers” No virtue w/o Risk pic.twitter.com/TWXqk68NJl Permalink 3:38 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Science is about observables; decisions, risk, life, profits and wisdom are about unobservables. Permalink 3:32 PM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Correction: Feb 11-15 Permalink 9:10 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@DrMichaelBonner Ousia, hypostasis, prosopon, etc. are often used interchangeably, and cannot be translated sensibly into other languages. Permalink 8:46 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My piece on the Lebanese language. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 7:21 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Cancelled my subscription to @LOrientLeJour, not bec they refused to publish my skeptical article on language, but for the INCOHERENCE of their management who claimed to be “balanced” by only publishing Arabists. MTV has no trouble w/the argument. https://www.facebook.com/adamadamo.fun/videos/vb.1532186683714370/742671102768879/?type=2&theater   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/x2kqK7VXy0″>  pic.twitter.com/x2kqK7VXy0 Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) For a nationalist others are like “nonelephant animals”. For a localist others are cousins; some are brothers. Permalink 4:56 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3) Both nationalism & abstract universalism cause blowups. Kantian Universalism is flawed: It you treat all children equally for Christmas, you will neglect your own. Just as you are obligated to give preference to your children, others are obligated to do so with their own… Permalink 4:54 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2) The danger of Nationalism is an absorption of values: lives of others don’t count: Both H & W Bush counted only U.S. soldiers. For Salafis, lives of infidels don’t count. For a localist everyone counts, but your obligation to family members is greater. Permalink 4:51 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb NATIONALISM: there is an individual, then nation, little above. Causes Wars: outside lives don’t exist. FRACTAL LOCALISM: individual ⊂ various tribes (family, friends…) ⊂ tribes ⊂ … Humanity. NEVER exclusive: One (me) can ⊂ Greek & Lebanese tribes+US +Mediterraneism. Permalink 4:47 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@Apocalypticaly @nntaleb might find this to be funny. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1073182406390079488   Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb We are opening scholarships for RWRI (Real World Risk Institute) Feb 10-14 2019 in NYC http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The saying that it takes much more energy to displace than install falsehood is itself a falsehood 1) Sticky “falsehoods” are beneficial or useful for survival (placebo, superstition) 2) Falsehood can only persist if #Lindy 3) Nonhelpful falsehoods tend to collapse very quicky Permalink 11:45 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture pic.twitter.com/prTzKd2MwM Permalink 9:07 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@moshejoshua For anyone who has read @nntaleb already knows, this statement to be the harbinger and start of the end. pic.twitter.com/GqrXYZWTX0 Permalink 4:39 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Let me be clear about intolerance against intolerance. The rule is that People (say Salafis) whose platform is EXPLICITLY denying democracy (or free speech) should not use democracy (or free speech) to reach political power. Permalink 1:46 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Nightmare! Someone citing me in EXACTLY opposite of the meaning: Being “intolerant against intolerance” does NOT mean tagging people as fascist or somethinist SO you can muzzle them. @davidgraeber’s tactic is tagging people w/o due process, witches to be hunted. https://twitter.com/kellydanc/status/1072576042030764034   Permalink 1:39 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@Stefano_Peron And conclusion: when u have heavy tails and low signal noise ratio, convexity and layering exposition is better then forecast!@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1072547892576116737   Permalink 10:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb With ⁦Isabella and @Stefano_Peron⁩, RWRI alumni who came from Italy (Treviso) to attend the ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ M4 Conference. pic.twitter.com/VhR103kc8w Permalink 9:45 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The NKS by @stephen_wolfram is #Lindy Thoughts by “scientists” like Dyson who dismissed it (without reading it) aren’t Lindy. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1072521638745391107   Permalink 8:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Econometrics has been a total disaster. pic.twitter.com/Bf8AAPksRb Permalink 6:53 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Spyros ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ : the most accurate machine learning method is worse than the worst standard “statistical” one. pic.twitter.com/oo3stEBoTy Permalink 6:46 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Where @davidgraeber is slowly learning that if you use a lynch mob against someone (under argument using freedom of expression), someone may turn a lynch mob against you (under same freedom of expression). #symmetry https://twitter.com/davidgraeber/status/1072210837283225600   Permalink 3:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can’t predict business success, but you can predict business failure: someone who writes lengthy and frequent emails. Permalink 3:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I confirm. Harry’s undergrad class >>> so-called social scientists. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1072266082210201604   Permalink 3:53 PM – 10 Dec 2018

@polemitis “I have been wrong about most things most of my life…tell me something I don’t know… the key is to have a convex distribution to returns when I am right vs I am wrong” – @nntaleb #m4conference @Uni_of_Nicosia @nyutandon Permalink 7:25 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Scott Armstrong is 81. I will remember to scrutinize what he eats at lunch/dinner. pic.twitter.com/nuEvfbwW1j Permalink 6:35 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am supposed to be an unpleasant. https://twitter.com/batteryhorse/status/1072134680563122176   Permalink 6:32 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@LBMaronites R.I.P to the great Lebanese poet Maurice Awad. He devoted his life to modernizing poetry in the Lebanese language & even translated the Bible to the Lebanese language. He was nominated to a Nobel Prize in 2015. A true treasure from our country! pic.twitter.com/QeGaJMmMYt Permalink 1:36 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@tonyblaitz And why did France spearhead the war against Ghaddafi in Libya? Why is France solidly behind Paul Biya and Cameroon in their quest to exterminate the people of the English-Speaking Southern Cameroon? Permalink 12:05 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb President Micron, You don’t want other countries to interfere in the affairs of France And/or sypport the #YellowVestProtests rebels. Why did France support the jihadi headcutters in Syria? Please explain, President Micron. Permalink 6:14 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Not good https://twitter.com/karenattiah/status/1071474783978700800   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Latest by @PZalloua of the Lebanon-East Med Population Genetics Project. Ancient DNA of Phoenician remains indicates discontinuity in the settlement history of Ibiza http://disq.us/t/397a0bd   Permalink 2:35 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NonMeek Here’s a tailored comic strip for your upcoming M4 -lecture in NY. This ought to capture the gist of it [intensity > frequency]. #fattails pic.twitter.com/HeKUQzoBxG Permalink 1:49 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NicolasTabardel You seem to still be using the left/right paradigm, when the debate has shifted to another dimension (globalist/localist). Permalink 12:21 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Χρόνια Πολλά ! https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1071358737607200768   Permalink 4:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Yellow vests. Some surprisingly excellent demands: – Banning Lobbies (8) – Smaller Banks (5) – Banning MONOCULTURE, GMOs, Glyphosate (20) – Anti Foreign Interventionism (22) – Pol. Diversity of Media (15) – Frexit (9) Some questionable ones (3, 2) . #GiletsJaunes #YellowVests pic.twitter.com/Jjwy16xpWK Permalink 3:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Fractal Localism https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1070994836705239041   @digvijoy_c Permalink 5:43 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Ending the poll earlier because more answers can come in, but only suckers wait for answers. Future Taleb had the most votes but Big Ron is the winner. pic.twitter.com/ERFL0S8Nrs Permalink 5:19 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Political Clarity under Complexity, & fractal localism. pic.twitter.com/5VPUTVrqaS Permalink 4:39 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is a CENTRAL result: you don’t get peace forcing pple to hold hands & sing Kumbaya by the campfire. You get peace via fractal LOCALISM. The usual idiotic AUB-style pseudoleft in Lebanon call “sectarian”(pejorative) anyone who believes in such Swiss-style localism. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/890007166991482881   Permalink 4:21 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb For about two decades, journos, like vultures, have been showing up whenever someone (even when patently lunatic) claims finding a “flaw” in my work. Maybe I shd use a fake account and start posting these. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/brianga11agher/status/1063542512114171904   Permalink 4:03 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Rex Tillerson was not a neocon. @SecPompeo is a neocon. And a liar. Case closed on the president. He’s not teachable. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1071132880368132096   Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intuitive way to see the BS by @PTetlock who doesn’t get the notion of forecasting shd be in payoff space except in very narrow domains. pic.twitter.com/kPeCKYjK3n Permalink 11:55 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@catoletters Meet the Crony Senators Who Took Saudi Money | The American Conservative https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/meet-the-senators-who-took-saudi-money/   via @amconmag Permalink 10:22 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why Macron was doomed the minute he gave an inch to the yellow vests. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/947496509926453251   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The fancy 5 volume INCERTO set to come out in 2019. https://www.amazon.com/Incerto-Deluxe-Randomness-Procrustes-Antifragile/dp/198481981X/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1544196473&sr=8-2&keywords=incerto   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xWtMBGC8gZ”>  pic.twitter.com/xWtMBGC8gZ Permalink 7:30 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@spyrosmakrid My talk at the M4 Forecasting Conference http://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   elaborates on the two major challenges facing the field (see below), in addition to discussing “The findings of the M4 Competition and their implications and how the participating methods can be applied”. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/64UODewnPa”>  pic.twitter.com/64UODewnPa Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Current bibles: The Bible, Wealth of Nations, Das Kapital, Works by Aquinas, Montaigne, etc. They fail editorial criteria. Editors don’t understand books, Academics don’t get scholarship. Why? @rorysutherland : employees’ objective is minimizing blame in case of failure. Permalink 3:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- How to make a survey work by via negativa. To assess if a book will survive, find an academic/someone who plays the system. If they say “well organized”, “well written”, or “original”, odds are the book flops. If they say “messy”, “whimsical”, the book will outlive him/her. Permalink 2:26 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Ignore surveys. Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line. Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait. Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 2:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018