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Catching Up | Twitter

Apologies, just going to put this here. Catching up a month and a half of NNT’s tweets.  I’ve heard from a few people who are locked out of Twitter at work that this has been useful. Back in the day when I started saving NNT’s tweets he was known to delete them at random and start again. Since he’s stopped doing that, this is sort of redundent but it forces me to pop in and see what he’s up to, and to collect relevant videos and publications.  I started this blog shortly after reading Fooled By Randomness. NNT was hardly known at the time and I felt his ideas were interesting and useful and that they could make a difference in the world. Well this many years later and the blog is more or less a habit as NNT has certainly made a name for himself. And his ideas are known and valued far and wide.

@nntaleb Might be outside EVT. Will look. Permalink 2020-07-14 22:48:33+00:00

@nntaleb I am doing an interview. Not yet decided with whom. Permalink 2020-07-14 22:48:10+00:00

@nntaleb You were a subject under the fake name citizen; the reverse is better. Permalink 2020-07-14 21:19:31+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ Am I the only one who sees similarities betw the cancel culture & France’s reign of terror, the use of empty slogans to indirectly promote the exact opposite of what is claimed (i.e., “diversity” ideas to promote “Northern-Euro (bleached) supremacy”), etc. ? Permalink 2020-07-14 19:49:05+00:00

@nntaleb Block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:44:41+00:00

@nntaleb I even reduced the burden when I discovered the effect of masks. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:09:51+00:00

@nntaleb Today July 14, some think they are celebrating “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” Not quite In fact they are celebrating verbalism & fake slogans: the move from UK-style constitutional monarchy to mob rule, reign of terror, arbitrary executions,…, then 70y of ABSOLUTE autocracy. Permalink 2020-07-14 19:08:35+00:00

@nntaleb Look up Ito’s lemma / stochastic process Permalink 2020-07-14 15:26:52+00:00

@nntaleb No, no Permalink 2020-07-14 15:07:06+00:00

@nntaleb Nobody has been working on formalizing Lindy. This is the next paper. Permalink 2020-07-14 15:01:15+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! What should I get? Permalink 2020-07-14 00:50:50+00:00

@nntaleb Will this work? Permalink 2020-07-14 00:46:09+00:00

@nntaleb He probably meant أخطبوط from χταπόδι Permalink 2020-07-13 22:18:26+00:00

@nntaleb A thread around my paper on p-values and p-value hacking, now a chapter in Stat Cons Fat Tails. Permalink 2020-07-13 22:16:20+00:00

@nntaleb Meanwhile Razib you are not paying attention to our correction to standard PCAs. Permalink 2020-07-13 20:17:55+00:00

@nntaleb @PZalloua We know the migration. Permalink 2020-07-13 20:10:19+00:00

@nntaleb I do not understand what you are looking for. Probability for an average to exceed the median is circular (under normal approximation mean converges to median). Permalink 2020-07-13 14:11:28+00:00

@nntaleb I agree here but by 2nd order effects I mean under nonlinearities which is an entirely different thingy. Permalink 2020-07-13 14:10:10+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-13 14:02:28+00:00

@nntaleb One mechanism Permalink 2020-07-13 13:26:55+00:00

@nntaleb Literary Persian is Indo-European with the majority of the vocabulary Semitic, 60% & higher for legal/medical texts, just as English is a nonRomance language with a high ratio of latin vocabulary. Same for Turkish w/ high ratio of Persian & Semitic vocabulary. Permalink 2020-07-13 12:09:21+00:00

@nntaleb Of course. Permalink 2020-07-13 10:59:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Masks Masquerade: Permalink 2020-07-13 10:59:29+00:00

@nntaleb Make lemon out of lemonade. Permalink 2020-07-13 10:28:38+00:00

@nntaleb https://biblehub.com/hebrew/5908.htm Permalink 2020-07-13 02:45:23+00:00

@nntaleb It exists in ancient Hebrew Permalink 2020-07-13 02:44:13+00:00

@nntaleb Mistake: العنكبوت شبكتها should be العنكبوت شبكته since it appears to be masculine. Permalink 2020-07-13 02:19:38+00:00

@nntaleb He was not eating alone, then. At least not initially. I made a mistake. Permalink 2020-07-13 02:15:54+00:00

@nntaleb Erdogan’s recitation: We have three language groups… Literary Turkish was Persian and Literaty Persian was Semitic (borrowed from both Aramaic & Classical Arabic). لنترجم علمشرقي: “بقصر القيصر بتشدالعنكبوت شبكتها و البومة بتصيح تحت قبة أفراسياب Permalink 2020-07-13 02:14:50+00:00

@nntaleb Apologies never count when they are driven by fear or self-interest; they count only when they are voluntary, spontaneous, and self-motivated. Permalink 2020-07-12 21:18:58+00:00

@nntaleb Apologies never count when they are driven by self-interest; they count only when they are voluntary, spontaneous, and self-motivated. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/506975-tech-ceo-caught-on-video-yelling-at-asian-american-family#.Xwt87zxp8aw.twitter Permalink 2020-07-12 21:16:14+00:00

@nntaleb That was my thought. He was soooooo lucky neither you nor I were there. Permalink 2020-07-12 21:08:08+00:00

@nntaleb And @JoshHochschild although he is Catholic. Permalink 2020-07-12 13:49:26+00:00

@nntaleb Or, easier, reduce the central state whenever possible. Central State employment in Lebanon is largely patronage (“zelm”). It’s the case in all the Med (Italy for example). Permalink 2020-07-11 20:20:16+00:00

@nntaleb Along with @ektrit of course Permalink 2020-07-11 20:15:10+00:00

@nntaleb Last time I checked there were no caravan routes in Leb Permalink 2020-07-11 20:02:39+00:00

@nntaleb What does this have to do with anything? Permalink 2020-07-11 19:36:55+00:00

@nntaleb Among the few who got the theology part: @DrMichaelBonner Permalink 2020-07-11 19:34:32+00:00

@nntaleb There are ads claiming I will be giving a masterclass somewhere online. I give no masterclasses. Permalink 2020-07-11 18:52:08+00:00

@nntaleb Another one @EGKhoury Permalink 2020-07-11 17:35:17+00:00

@nntaleb Yes you cut in 2 compensating halves, as with Principal Values Permalink 2020-07-11 17:20:15+00:00

@nntaleb Basically only solution I can find without going through the complex domain Permalink 2020-07-11 17:03:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes wiki! I tried to create another one with Ceiling and Floor Permalink 2020-07-11 16:21:58+00:00

@nntaleb You need the aesthetics of Latex Permalink 2020-07-11 14:23:47+00:00

@nntaleb I did not write this, but I almost thought I did. The Nation state killed Mediterranean cosmopolitanism. Some in #Antifragile Permalink 2020-07-11 14:21:41+00:00

@nntaleb Because you are promoting PLAGIARISM, which is STOLEN WORK Permalink 2020-07-11 12:09:37+00:00

@nntaleb Except for Uber ratings! Permalink 2020-07-11 11:55:54+00:00

@nntaleb And of course the absurdity of a newspaper that publishes in French for a Christian elite opposing the formalization of local language on grounds of political correctness! Who the fuck are you fooling? Permalink 2020-07-11 11:55:26+00:00

@nntaleb Yes assumed Permalink 2020-07-11 11:26:52+00:00

@nntaleb Nigel Warburton, though is highly unethical. Permalink 2020-07-11 11:14:24+00:00

@nntaleb CORRECTIONS, one by author of the problem, second (inequality becomes equality) thanks to @mcs1870 Permalink 2020-07-11 10:47:46+00:00

@nntaleb Uber rating is central. The rest is just window dressing. Permalink 2020-07-11 10:29:34+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking Liar The piece has NOTHING to do with “Phoenicianism” but origin of spoken language. It explicitly says it does not descend from “Phoenician” Fucking liar. Permalink 2020-07-11 10:16:18+00:00

@nntaleb How about 60yo Deads 400? Permalink 2020-07-10 21:59:29+00:00

@nntaleb Yes you need to bounce within 1-2Y, or we are doomed. Permalink 2020-07-10 21:58:12+00:00

@nntaleb To illustrate how stable the alpha is for pandemics, here are computations taking each time randomly only 40% of the observations. You get the same with the stock market, wars, etc. https://twitter.com/Heinonmatti/status/1281618547823849482 Permalink 2020-07-10 21:11:33+00:00

@nntaleb Actually good ham (Iberico, Serrano, etc.) is 100% from VEGETARIAN pigs. Permalink 2020-07-10 20:59:22+00:00

@nntaleb Triple imbecile, is my article causing their poverty or preventing their exit from it? Imbecile. Permalink 2020-07-10 20:32:16+00:00

@nntaleb Not in the book but you need an energy constraint to get the Gaussian. Permalink 2020-07-10 18:07:26+00:00

@nntaleb Language is WHERE power laws were really discovered (George Zipf). Mandelbrot did his thesis on information theory… rediscovering the effect. Permalink 2020-07-10 18:02:25+00:00

@nntaleb Tatiana, “Middle Eastern country” is a severe misdescription. Mediterranean is more accurate. Permalink 2020-07-10 17:07:27+00:00

@nntaleb By now, dolarization works. Permalink 2020-07-10 15:41:16+00:00

@nntaleb For journalists and imbeciles like you, yes. Permalink 2020-07-10 14:04:25+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, but explained the necessary education is high school/technical skills. Not university Permalink 2020-07-10 14:02:26+00:00

@nntaleb Wait and you will get one closer to you. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:23:38+00:00

@nntaleb Me, president of Lebanon? It is like asking a fighter pilot to drive an Uber. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:07:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Iranian educational system is impressive. Permalink 2020-07-10 13:04:19+00:00

@nntaleb You make sooooooooooooooooooooo little sense. In what agricultural place does the majority of the people own agricultural land? Permalink 2020-07-10 13:01:20+00:00

@nntaleb Ignore ergodic here. It is just fat tailed. Permalink 2020-07-10 12:16:19+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile it is called MATH and if you don’t know what you are talking about do your homework or STAY OUT of math. Permalink 2020-07-10 12:15:56+00:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? Permalink 2020-07-10 12:01:20+00:00

@nntaleb It has been FREE on the web for 12 months. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:41:34+00:00

@nntaleb Stat conse of fat tails is 100% ANALYTICAL Permalink 2020-07-10 11:39:23+00:00

@nntaleb You must be a total idiot since my points are clear enough for the author of the cited article to get it perfectly. Total idiot. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:38:51+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck no. It is all decentralized, private, or via religious institutions. Permalink 2020-07-10 11:34:21+00:00

@nntaleb Finally people in decision science are GETTING OUR POINT, starting to move away from naive “evidence based” empiricism, realizing that many psycholophasters such as @CassSunstein and @PTetlock are using fortune cookie tools. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13669877.2020.1772346 Permalink 2020-07-10 10:56:06+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite. Educational levels are lower. Permalink 2020-07-10 10:49:31+00:00

@nntaleb I just published Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility Permalink 2020-07-10 10:36:40+00:00

@nntaleb Zoom dinners work! Ask @trishankkarthik to put you on the list Permalink 2020-07-09 23:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb I remember Pierre Gemayyel transcribed as Bayyar Jamil Permalink 2020-07-09 22:31:50+00:00

@nntaleb I see. For I have actually added to ergodicity in 2009 for the 2nd edition. Permalink 2020-07-09 19:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb W sanfirlo 3al sanfiryél Permalink 2020-07-09 19:03:52+00:00

@nntaleb These were not ADDED. They were there from the beginning. Permalink 2020-07-09 18:58:41+00:00

@nntaleb OK, but then please don’t read anything by Anita Brookner. Permalink 2020-07-09 17:08:09+00:00

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo. Permalink 2020-07-09 17:00:10+00:00

@nntaleb But I fast usually instead of eating alone. Forces you to socialize. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:57:52+00:00

@nntaleb Yes for me it’s sushi Permalink 2020-07-09 16:57:18+00:00

@nntaleb Qui mange seul meurt seul. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:37:48+00:00

@nntaleb I keep saying: don’t expect too many human traits from people who eat dinner alone. Permalink 2020-07-09 16:14:36+00:00

@nntaleb They keep them for 2000 years Permalink 2020-07-09 15:46:04+00:00

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink 2020-07-09 15:45:26+00:00

@nntaleb Actually Jaffer is half Greek Permalink 2020-07-09 14:50:20+00:00

@nntaleb No he doesn’t or doesn’t understand. Strawman that misses scaling. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:26:51+00:00

@nntaleb OK OK. Tlabt w7dé. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:25:05+00:00

@nntaleb ASYMMETRY Someone wants to interview my “enemies”. Tried to make a list: I cannot find one who knows MY work. But I know THEIR works. Alas, *almost* all my enemies are people angry because I am going after them(“BS BUSTING CRUSADE), not because they don’t like my work. Permalink 2020-07-09 14:11:11+00:00

@nntaleb Which grinder should I get. Permalink 2020-07-09 13:28:39+00:00

@nntaleb Will this work? Permalink 2020-07-09 12:50:14+00:00

@nntaleb Comme si c’était du sport! Permalink 2020-07-08 22:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Sartre also had the decency to write to the Nobel committee asking for his name to be removed from consideration. His refusal was not an ex post free option. Permalink 2020-07-08 19:48:58+00:00

@nntaleb The minute you have an affiliation, you are no longer to be trusted with your opinion. The patron saint of intellectuals Jean-Paul Sartre declined the Nobel Prize in Lit because did not want to be “institutionalised”. His opinions would reflect on the Nobel & vice versa. Permalink 2020-07-08 19:45:50+00:00

@nntaleb Also PREASYMPTOTICS, the topic of STAT CONS OF FAT TAILS Permalink 2020-07-08 17:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb Forgot that I discussed ergodicity in The Black Swan! Second edition, 2009. cc:@ole_b_peters Permalink 2020-07-08 17:18:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes the identity becomes an inequality. Permalink 2020-07-08 16:14:43+00:00

@nntaleb The wine cooler Permalink 2020-07-08 16:13:40+00:00

@nntaleb Power law is always for the tails, as x->+-\infty Permalink 2020-07-08 15:42:35+00:00

@nntaleb It is ~~ or + O(f(x))^5 Permalink 2020-07-08 02:02:11+00:00

@nntaleb You do not want to be “cancelled” by 1) Your barber 2) Your butcher 3) The owner of your favorite restaurant The rest can go f*** themselves. #BeingIndependent Permalink 2020-07-08 01:58:34+00:00

@nntaleb It is Arcsin[h], which is log[h + Sqrt[1 + h^2]] Permalink 2020-07-08 01:52:26+00:00

@nntaleb Reminder: You do not become free by becoming prominent. You will be canceled if you stray from the monoculture. As in Kundera’s *Joke*, they will find something you said somewhere that you don’t even remember. Your public “apologies” will make you look even more vulnerable. Permalink 2020-07-07 21:55:48+00:00

@nntaleb I mean PPP is a fraud and I agree with @PeterSchiff Permalink 2020-07-07 21:13:03+00:00

@nntaleb Fraud, again. Permalink 2020-07-07 20:38:28+00:00

@nntaleb Shipped July 12 latest Permalink 2020-07-07 19:27:57+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck that! This is what I do Permalink 2020-07-07 19:15:30+00:00

@nntaleb Computer, both LateX and Mathematica Permalink 2020-07-07 19:07:07+00:00

@nntaleb Must be f’>1 Permalink 2020-07-07 18:53:05+00:00

@nntaleb Typo Permalink 2020-07-07 18:49:53+00:00

@nntaleb It is always embarrassing to fail to solve something when one’s picture is on it. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:47:03+00:00

@nntaleb In case it rains. [Note that all non-math related commentators will be blocked] Permalink 2020-07-07 18:24:51+00:00

@nntaleb IMBECILE it’s the virus that’s sabotaging the economy. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:13:57+00:00

@nntaleb He claimed he should meet patients and shake hands, mingle with them. Permalink 2020-07-07 18:13:20+00:00

@nntaleb The best approach is to eyeball the “Karamata point”. You can recognize it when you see it. No other approach works as well. @Heinonmatti Permalink 2020-07-07 16:58:24+00:00

@nntaleb Early virus denial got Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro so far. A few left… Permalink 2020-07-07 16:38:23+00:00

@nntaleb Keep Scott Adams outside matters with any quantitative/scientific or logical dimension. Permalink 2020-07-07 16:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb The draughtsperson used a Disraeli novel. Permalink 2020-07-07 13:57:21+00:00

@nntaleb It was drawn from description Permalink 2020-07-07 13:54:22+00:00

@nntaleb Mazel tov Permalink 2020-07-07 12:04:48+00:00

@nntaleb This is called “opinion against interest”. Permalink 2020-07-07 11:14:42+00:00

@nntaleb The great Mandelbrot, during his naturalization exams. Examiner: “how many stripes…” M: “what is a stripe? The white or the red”? I had EXACTLY the same reaction. What people call “stripe” is cultural, has tacit foundations. Permalink 2020-07-07 01:17:00+00:00

@nntaleb Evidence that people pay for the Chanel brand to impress their neighbors, not for the underlying quality. It is all about buying certification, not knowledge. Permalink 2020-07-06 23:36:08+00:00

@nntaleb Or mathematicians! Permalink 2020-07-06 23:34:23+00:00

@nntaleb IQ is not NorthernEuro-centric or anthropocentric (i.e., representing a type of intelligence for a certain environment). No. It is just NERD-CENTRIC. It is also part of a sinister racial/eugenist program. Permalink 2020-07-06 20:47:38+00:00

@nntaleb Institutes based on the ideas of (dead) anti-rent seekers are populated with employees who use the institute for rent seeking. Nonprofit organizations should have an expiration date. https://twitter.com/PatFitzgerald23/status/1280217058677084160 Permalink 2020-07-06 20:27:49+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-07-06 18:06:32+00:00

@nntaleb Where is the list? There must be others. Permalink 2020-07-06 18:00:55+00:00

@nntaleb Reason 1 – Real estate developers Reason 2- Professors … Permalink 2020-07-06 17:51:48+00:00

@nntaleb I support Pinker. Yes, he’s a BS operator posing as a scientist. Yes he is clueless abt genetics. Yes, he has no erudition yet writes abt the enlightment. But they’re not going after him for this. If they get him they can get ANYONE who depends on the system. #LeavePinkerAlone Permalink 2020-07-06 15:28:03+00:00

@nntaleb Did you get a copy? Permalink 2020-07-06 14:52:00+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks Atrin! Here is the summary graph, with legend on right: Permalink 2020-07-06 11:36:32+00:00

@nntaleb A reminder that #deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later (fellow was 41, died after 3 m). How many? NO IDEA. Too much uncertainty. Furthermore media statistics & numbers do not seem to focus on morbidity. Permalink 2020-07-06 11:14:37+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! It is NOT symmetric, goes mostly in one direction. Permalink 2020-07-06 11:07:17+00:00

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness applied to regression slopes. Random points ALWAYS produce a slope. Permalink 2020-07-06 10:46:54+00:00

@nntaleb Olympic lifts! Permalink 2020-07-06 10:09:27+00:00

@nntaleb Projects that “brew” grow best! Indeed we need to revisit. Permalink 2020-07-06 10:01:30+00:00

@nntaleb Bravo! Do you know how much caffeine there in the output of a small Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-06 09:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb I am glad this prick is not in Lebanon. Where I am spending more and more time. Permalink 2020-07-06 02:51:39+00:00

@nntaleb Hi, thanks Let me see if @yaneerbaryam can be interested Permalink 2020-07-06 02:22:46+00:00

@nntaleb He has a series of such posts. I looked at his CV in disbelief: “prestigious” publications in econ journals which tell you economics MUST BE a citation ring. I can understand BS Vendors like @PTetlock publishing in psych journals. But this is economics, a bit more quantitative. Permalink 2020-07-06 02:07:56+00:00

@nntaleb Incompetence so, so extreme can only be dealt with by counting it as pure fraud. Permalink 2020-07-06 01:44:26+00:00

@nntaleb You can always tell. Permalink 2020-07-05 22:27:56+00:00

@nntaleb Probably late Bronze age, then remember name was Baal, then temples of Bacchus and Jupiter. Permalink 2020-07-05 19:50:30+00:00

@nntaleb Hint: name is Baal Permalink 2020-07-05 19:31:48+00:00

@nntaleb Baalbeck 2020 Live! In the most impressive Graeco-Roman temple left. https://youtu.be/KQ0k8UE651E via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-05 19:18:18+00:00

@nntaleb Sunday Math du Jour in memory of @CutTheKnotMath I build in the days of Alexander Bogomolny a program to “cheat” with proofs of inequalities. Here it is Permalink 2020-07-05 17:36:31+00:00

@nntaleb If “straightforward” please present straightforward solution or you get blocked. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-05 13:08:30+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, tighter bound! Permalink 2020-07-05 13:02:42+00:00

@nntaleb The Llave is uneven: some packets foam, others don’t. And the Illi for Mokka doesn’t foam. Is it from the degradation/loss of oil ? Permalink 2020-07-05 11:58:10+00:00

@nntaleb Not hard, but I guess there is a hint that I should post. Permalink 2020-07-05 10:02:15+00:00

@nntaleb I’ve never met a rich nitpicker. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:40:04+00:00

@nntaleb Your alpha is wrong. Eliminate values to the left and redo. It is not close to the points on the right. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:10:48+00:00

@nntaleb Was told by doctas they got the hang of immunosuppressants etc. Permalink 2020-07-04 22:03:25+00:00

@nntaleb Not yet. Permalink 2020-07-04 21:37:12+00:00

@nntaleb These answers are an intelligence test Permalink 2020-07-04 21:36:35+00:00

@nntaleb Happy birthday America. Today was born the first modern state democracy and (still) by far the most robust one! Permalink 2020-07-04 21:30:21+00:00

@nntaleb Also Nice to see my arguments circulating: simple powerful points that appear obvious once you hear them. ” a quick twitter thought, if IQ was highest Northern Europe as usually claimed why has N. Europe remained so primitive compared to other places for most of history?” Permalink 2020-07-04 21:24:01+00:00

@nntaleb The book has a bio. Permalink 2020-07-04 20:16:18+00:00

@nntaleb Except for @GrantSSC training videos are mostly trainers theorizing to the camera, sometimes 95% of the time. Not good for people with short attention spans (like myself). With Grant, you see short videos of movement. Permalink 2020-07-04 18:41:27+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ You can complain that Youtube should not cancel him as it should be open to all. But DO NOT claim that someone is repressing “science”. There is no science. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:47:53+00:00

@nntaleb Charlatan @StefanMolyneux promoted quackeries as scientific facts (incl country IQ) to >1 million YouTube subscribers. Includes episode abt me. His Youtube was cancelled. Don’t tell me it was about science. There is no “science”. It’s about hate. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:42:19+00:00

@nntaleb Charlatan @StefanMolyneux promoted quackeries as scientific facts (incl country IQ) to >1 million YouTube subscribers. Includes episode abt me. His Youtube was cancelled. Don’t tell me it was about science. There is no “science”. It’s about hate. Permalink 2020-07-04 17:38:24+00:00

@nntaleb They normalized. Ha! Permalink 2020-07-04 17:20:34+00:00

@nntaleb I meant @PTetlock Permalink 2020-07-04 16:25:49+00:00

@nntaleb Has nothing to do with shame/no shame. Has to do with binarization of people into groups. We Meds may want to be multiculturals because WE cross many cultures. Nobody shd be able to stop us. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:24:07+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. But it is prevalent in universities & state policies. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:17:02+00:00

@nntaleb Then why does Arabism cling to a monolithic identity? It is pure fascism. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:12:02+00:00

@nntaleb Here are the levels of understanding of probability. Many people discuss probability without knowing what it means: someone like @Ptelock comes at bottom. Permalink 2020-07-04 16:11:02+00:00

@nntaleb Great. Plomin makes a critical mistake nobody noticed: 1) transitivity and 2) noise (he himself wrote that you correlation at .8 with your own scores). Permalink 2020-07-04 16:07:56+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:01:26+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:01:01+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-04 15:00:38+00:00

@nntaleb My point is that you cannot do “science” without knowing & rigorously applying statistics & you cannot do statistics without knowing & rigorously applying mathematical statistics & you cannot do mathematical statistics without knowing & rigorously applying probability theory. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:35:55+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked a lot of responders repeating “look at empirical evidence” or “this is science” used by mountebanks such as @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, and ignorant psychologists. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:24:56+00:00

@nntaleb Do Average not Total. Also as a discipline use n>10K since it is a free option This you can do analytically, simple binomial. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:21:52+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Permalink 2020-07-04 14:18:55+00:00

@nntaleb There is a sinister racist-eugenist program tying intelligence to race, meant to degrade populations, with policy implications on welfare, immigration, & more sinister matters. The country IQ is fake news, entirely concocted. AND IT IS CONTINUING! Permalink 2020-07-04 14:15:23+00:00

@nntaleb Localism means focusing on water and electricity rather than geopolitics and Iran/Saudi Arabia, etc. Permalink 2020-07-03 21:28:21+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-03 20:09:18+00:00

@nntaleb Actually loglogplot gives…worse. Permalink 2020-07-03 19:44:39+00:00

@nntaleb You mean with math? Permalink 2020-07-03 18:38:08+00:00

@nntaleb Losing weight has its disadvantages! On texhné-epistemé by Big time Tommy https://youtu.be/WnPXkbpqlIk via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-03 18:31:16+00:00

@nntaleb The cook for RWRI Permalink 2020-07-03 18:24:40+00:00

@nntaleb I block conspiracy theorists. Sorry nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-03 15:23:30+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile! Permalink 2020-07-03 15:22:15+00:00

@nntaleb 1/n Attention #LebanonProtests The US ambassador may be a great person with great intentions but it is not a good idea to associate the protests w/a foreign entity & GEOPOLITICS. This WILL make the problem geopolitical w/East-West tensions when it is entirely local. #Localism Permalink 2020-07-03 11:44:09+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck the French. They got the sophistication in the Levant/Med during the Crusades: sorbet from Tripoli, scalions from Ashkelon, sauces with herbs from the Levant/Mediterranean. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:55:45+00:00

@nntaleb foreword Permalink 2020-07-03 10:53:14+00:00

@nntaleb I thought it came from Safaitic… mayy etc. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:35:26+00:00

@nntaleb Have you see this? It spread a lot. Permalink 2020-07-03 10:16:34+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, please help correct this foreward. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-03 10:12:07+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-03 09:31:06+00:00

@nntaleb It is so much easier to do it online. Many more people can participate who could not afford a trip to NY Permalink 2020-07-03 09:25:58+00:00

@nntaleb 2) French descends from Latin. LEvantine DOES NOT descend from Fus7a. Semitic languages are more diffuse. Permalink 2020-07-03 09:23:57+00:00

@nntaleb 1) In PRINCIPIA POLITICA I give examples of Arab fascism: just imposing an identity on someone is fascism. Why is it OK to be a BAsque/Catalan separatist but not a localist in Leb? The left is very sympathetic to this. Permalink 2020-07-03 09:23:17+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Extremely sorry for the inconvenience. Permalink 2020-07-03 00:42:21+00:00

@nntaleb It s the same music, Words@change Permalink 2020-07-02 21:48:32+00:00

@nntaleb Nor did her father… Permalink 2020-07-02 20:07:57+00:00

@nntaleb ETHICS: never look for studies as backup for argument, derive arguments from studies. You get caught. Crackpots are so desperate to show that masks don’t work that they link to any study: turns out nonpeer-reviewed, never cited in 4 y, in a nonjournal but industry magazine. Permalink 2020-07-02 20:03:00+00:00

@nntaleb For our seminar we can hire instructors offshore now that we are online. Permalink 2020-07-02 19:47:05+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need a visa to work remote… and more and more people are doing so. Permalink 2020-07-02 19:33:36+00:00

@nntaleb Avoid socialites; never befriend rich & famous people who mosly socialize with rich & famous people. Permalink 2020-07-02 17:14:52+00:00

@nntaleb …particularly squid ink! Permalink 2020-07-02 16:33:51+00:00

@nntaleb I do not think much of #DominicCummings (@yaneerbaryam & I wrote he gets complexity backwards). But the impostor’s @PTetlock’s “superforecasters” is far worse: a vast deception –similar to screening for rectal cancer using the Department of Motor Vehicles’ standing eye exam. Permalink 2020-07-02 16:33:02+00:00

@nntaleb Bought! Permalink 2020-07-02 15:49:42+00:00

@nntaleb It is not statistically significant. Why? Fat Tails. Permalink 2020-07-02 15:29:48+00:00

@nntaleb Michael Levitt is banking on his Nobel in… chemistry to apply Ord differential Equa on a stochastic time series! By DEFINITION a stochastic time series is NOWHERE DIFFERENTIABLE (except via smoothing function, which is circular). This crackpot caters to RightWing conspiracies https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1277278261979090945 Permalink 2020-07-02 15:24:22+00:00

@nntaleb It is crap outside London, Paris, NY, Brooklyn… But very good in these cities. Permalink 2020-07-02 15:08:48+00:00

@nntaleb This one is good: explains an aspect of skin in the game: revelation of preferences. Permalink 2020-07-02 13:43:59+00:00

@nntaleb If you want to be a bit disturbed: if Socrates lived today he would look much more like this guy than a nerdy philosophy professor checking student grades & academic rank who happens to lecture on Socrates. https://youtu.be/6VWD5ZMMp1U via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-02 13:32:18+00:00

@nntaleb No connection, just interest. Permalink 2020-07-02 12:51:02+00:00

@nntaleb Bert, visit Beirut when I am there. Permalink 2020-07-02 12:40:56+00:00

@nntaleb Mediterraneo orientale, non lo so esattamente Permalink 2020-07-02 11:57:55+00:00

@nntaleb …and the highest resolution, of course, is Aleppo’s. Permalink 2020-07-02 11:53:27+00:00

@nntaleb Scenarios are TOTAL BS under thick tails! Permalink 2020-07-02 11:22:57+00:00

@nntaleb Trying to explain the difference between Greek, Turkish, and Lebanese food. They’re all similar but Lebanese food is higher resolution. Permalink 2020-07-02 11:16:41+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-02 10:29:20+00:00

@nntaleb If Permalink 2020-07-02 02:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?kn=Peter+Brown%27s+%22The+World+of+Late+Antiquity%2C%22&kn=Peter+Brown%27s+%22The+World+of+Late+Antiquity%2C%22&sortby=17&cm_sp=inline-_-kn-_-search Permalink 2020-07-02 01:45:25+00:00

@nntaleb Harry is a card carrying member of our Mask Wearing- BS Buster Probability Brigade. MW-BSBPB, formerly BSBPB Permalink 2020-07-02 01:44:36+00:00

@nntaleb 1 min Permalink 2020-07-02 00:32:00+00:00

@nntaleb Nice travel suitcase. Very nice. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:30:39+00:00

@nntaleb I have an extra copy of the real thing somewhere. You must return to Amazon. Was printed by a robot. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:09:20+00:00

@nntaleb Not a subset. Conditional probability. Permalink 2020-07-02 00:03:08+00:00

@nntaleb Then tried dried pasta. Worked beautifully. Permalink 2020-07-01 23:06:40+00:00

@nntaleb I tried pasta. Best ingredients, so went for fresh pasta. Failed miserably with fresh pasta: was not aldente, rather the reverse. Wonder why dried pasta is better than fresh. Permalink 2020-07-01 23:00:17+00:00

@nntaleb THIS IS A SCAM. Do not send $$Dear @YouTube This is a SCAM. I have been reporting for 24 hours. They are impersonating me. Even sent my passport screenshot to show it was not my channel. I know of 20 people who reported. Why is @Youtube so slow in reacting? Permalink 2020-07-01 22:15:20+00:00

@nntaleb Scam alert! Not me Permalink 2020-07-01 21:57:59+00:00

@nntaleb If you like my oeuvre you should hate nitpicking. Permalink 2020-07-01 19:16:20+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-01 18:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Friends of Maestro @CutTheKnotMath, RIP I am writing an intro to the book on Probability riddles, please share anecdotes if you have one. Permalink 2020-07-01 18:11:37+00:00

@nntaleb Speaking a language is NOT speeches & declamations but conversation. For 500 years Europe used Latin without speaking it. Mafhum? Permalink 2020-07-01 17:35:22+00:00

@nntaleb (Ignoring the false positives/false negatives as too small an effect here) Permalink 2020-07-01 17:12:16+00:00

@nntaleb ANSWER (FRAMEWORK): We can use this very simple approach for conditional probability: if those who tested have more positives in them. So much less than 1%, with some information we can get closer. Permalink 2020-07-01 17:09:04+00:00

@nntaleb QUESTION If ~1% of people tested in NY test positive, assuming nonrandom testing, what is the proportion of people infected? Permalink 2020-07-01 16:26:25+00:00

@nntaleb In Lebanon it used to be Christians who loved Classical Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-01 16:17:31+00:00

@nntaleb It is actually (partly) here in our debate with Ioannidis. I would not debate @Ptetlock Permalink 2020-07-01 15:48:54+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-01 15:39:10+00:00

@nntaleb What kind of nonsense is this? Because I debunk bullshitters everyone is not a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:38:38+00:00

@nntaleb Tetlock is an academic fraud. A total academic fraud. More, later. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:27:38+00:00

@nntaleb Why is Arabic the world’s most difficult language to learn?(“fus7a” & “modern literary arabic”) Simply because it is NOT spoken. And @Safaitic & @PhDniX showed was NEVER spoken as such. It’s a COMPLICATED literary construction by poets/scholars. Local languages are EASY. Permalink 2020-07-01 15:24:33+00:00

@nntaleb Yes but my objective is to be a human, which includes some strength, not to become strong. Molto differente Permalink 2020-06-30 19:59:03+00:00

@nntaleb One week… We sold out the first printing! Permalink 2020-06-30 19:36:56+00:00

@nntaleb Merci Permalink 2020-06-30 19:31:57+00:00

@nntaleb Neither, in Jan. Quarantine/Reduced mobility. Permalink 2020-06-30 19:28:50+00:00

@nntaleb Two ways to look at it. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:54:52+00:00

@nntaleb FRAUD ALERT Permalink 2020-06-30 18:42:28+00:00

@nntaleb No, it is not (1.01)^365 since I used Log[deaths date t]-Log[deaths date t-1] so my growth rate is the exponential one. Hece Exp[365/100]. Look at code above. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:34:09+00:00

@nntaleb They are not @nntaleb’s ideas. Permalink 2020-06-30 18:31:30+00:00

@nntaleb Here is my code Permalink 2020-06-30 18:12:47+00:00

@nntaleb Actually the graph is using true exponential growth, so Exp[365/100] Permalink 2020-06-30 17:47:15+00:00

@nntaleb COVID-19 Just a reminder that something that keeps growing at 1% a day gets multiplied by 38 in one year. Permalink 2020-06-30 17:35:44+00:00

@nntaleb Doesn’t count unless you start from the floor. Permalink 2020-06-30 15:37:16+00:00

@nntaleb No its speed is preasymptotic and distribution specific Permalink 2020-06-30 12:55:06+00:00

@nntaleb There is no depth. Simply, LLN Permalink 2020-06-30 12:27:38+00:00

@nntaleb Il faut attendre un peu. J’ai un format. A suivre Permalink 2020-06-30 12:14:32+00:00

@nntaleb Lorenzo there is not much more in the book. All about LLN Permalink 2020-06-30 12:06:20+00:00

@nntaleb On devrait collaborer sur le “country IQ”. J’ai vu vos commentaires. Permalink 2020-06-30 11:15:24+00:00

@nntaleb I made mistakes in that direction. Never the other. Permalink 2020-06-30 11:11:48+00:00

@nntaleb No no no, not what i am saying! Centralism is function dependent. Benoux is in bad faith. Permalink 2020-06-29 20:15:08+00:00

@nntaleb Akademik? Permalink 2020-06-29 19:00:07+00:00

@nntaleb More interesting is the plural of تبع. We say تبعولي In Zahlé they say تبعيني The plural for تاع is تاعولي @QifaNabki Permalink 2020-06-29 17:24:20+00:00

@nntaleb Sel-fulfillment is PRECISELY what it is not. BS term in the “success” literature. Permalink 2020-06-29 17:04:31+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! If origin is just متاع why do people in East Beirut and North say تبع for the same thing? In Amioun we use تبع for تاع and متاعين for former semi-serfs (before 1860 those who wer subjects of a feudal lord) Permalink 2020-06-29 16:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb No no no no. Use loglogplot (Zipf plot) Permalink 2020-06-29 16:10:05+00:00

@nntaleb Linguam. Lungua = rwéya Permalink 2020-06-29 15:33:39+00:00

@nntaleb Pierre dove hai imparato l’italiano? Permalink 2020-06-29 15:28:45+00:00

@nntaleb Va bene in italiano? “L’assenza di prove non è una prova di assenza” Permalink 2020-06-29 15:14:56+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots, Mr Hazel. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-29 14:40:45+00:00

@nntaleb Karoun is Armenian, my friend. Permalink 2020-06-29 13:55:42+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-29 13:54:11+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need a lot of data for Lindy. just prove it is a power law. 5 points suffice! Permalink 2020-06-29 13:52:21+00:00

@nntaleb A person stopped cycling when his odometer ceased to function, waiting for a replacement. He felt his cycling “did not count”. This explains the difference between an academic & a real scholar. Permalink 2020-06-29 13:41:49+00:00

@nntaleb Lindy does not mean alpha = 2 Permalink 2020-06-29 13:33:11+00:00

@nntaleb All, depends on structure. Megacorps are borderline Permalink 2020-06-29 13:02:08+00:00

@nntaleb Am I the first to notice that she has a remarkable lung capacity to shout and scream but none for a surgical mask? Permalink 2020-06-29 12:39:28+00:00

@nntaleb These are specific villages under Maronite feudal lords Permalink 2020-06-29 12:34:17+00:00

@nntaleb In Amioun we use Tab3ak and Mte3in to describe people from poor villages. Permalink 2020-06-29 12:25:59+00:00

@nntaleb ذو Permalink 2020-06-29 11:44:00+00:00

@nntaleb Weyn inta? Fransa؟ Permalink 2020-06-29 11:16:32+00:00

@nntaleb Why is it that in Achrafieh it is تبعك? Different root? Permalink 2020-06-29 11:14:32+00:00

@nntaleb Lebanon. Going there but must be tested twice. 4 days after arrival. Permalink 2020-06-29 11:08:51+00:00

@nntaleb I did not block Benoux because he is bullshitter (he is). I blocked him because he is in BAD FAITH. Gabish? @jbarrpartarr Permalink 2020-06-29 10:58:07+00:00

@nntaleb In Egyptian becomes بتاعك . Just wondering abt ancient forms. Permalink 2020-06-29 10:44:54+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL RIDDLE DU JOUR In Maltese & South Med (& Beirut’s Basta), yours is Tiegħek, تاعك but there is no obvious Semitic root. Hebrew is שלך and Arabic is clumsy خاصة بك Can it be that تبعك => تابع لك comes from it? Coincidence w/ the Latin “tua”! What is the @safaitic? Permalink 2020-06-29 10:43:52+00:00

@nntaleb Advice: buy something already built. Lots of unexpected problems. Sallmé khebzek lal khebbéz wlaw akal nesso! Permalink 2020-06-29 01:53:01+00:00

@nntaleb Noura is very very good. Maybe the colors in the picture. Permalink 2020-06-29 01:29:45+00:00

@nntaleb Oh no! Permalink 2020-06-29 00:29:36+00:00

@nntaleb É. Min l Ashrafié. M2abil mat3am Al Mayyas min ma jeddé eja senet 1923. Permalink 2020-06-28 23:36:43+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, being practically from Beirut (3rd generation, though officially from Ancestral Amioun), I can spot the quality of hummus from a picture. Let’s see. Permalink 2020-06-28 23:01:07+00:00

@nntaleb You are realllllly looking for trouble. There are secrets & tricks that are NOT in the recipe books. Permalink 2020-06-28 20:53:35+00:00

@nntaleb Yes when the ship is drowning you need to sit down and worry about geopolitics. It is people saying such crap that are the cause of the disaster. Permalink 2020-06-28 18:21:53+00:00

@nntaleb Guru! Are you 59 now? Permalink 2020-06-28 18:03:21+00:00

@nntaleb Do you see ME taking instructions from some slow-thinking wage-slave bureaucrat? Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-06-28 18:00:21+00:00

@nntaleb 3) Why keep Global Politics for later. [Chapter in SITG] Permalink 2020-06-28 17:58:37+00:00

@nntaleb You read too much global politics propaganda. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:55:56+00:00

@nntaleb In principle, any municipality is a private co-op group. Making it one single owner can be a problem. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:54:39+00:00

@nntaleb False dichotomy. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:24:09+00:00

@nntaleb 2) The idiots at the US State Dept should also stay out of finance. The incompetent US ambassador in #Lebanon made statements supporting #RiadPonzi the most dangerous central banker in history. This is economically and ethically unacceptable, Ambassador shd keep mouth shut. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:23:19+00:00

@nntaleb Re: US Ambassador in #Lebanon, ftntes -Severe problems require coordination & harmony, & the U.S. State Dept is playing GEOPOLITICS at the wrong time -USSD employees are mostly dangerously clueless #IYI interventionistas who see the world ONLY in terms of Geopolitics #localism Permalink 2020-06-28 17:19:49+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ For books you reread, read both text and footnotes. Permalink 2020-06-28 17:18:05+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-28 17:06:45+00:00

@nntaleb For popular books, read the text, not the footnotes. For scholarly books, read the footnotes, not the text. For social science books, read neither text nor footnote. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:43:57+00:00

@nntaleb What do you mean? That one should answer this? The paper answers it but one needs to know distributions. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:38:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, strangely. Grant, my basement floor is slightly uneven (house built in 1928). Makes one side heavier. Any problem? Permalink 2020-06-28 16:32:35+00:00

@nntaleb You will note that our answer to Ioannidis is… in a footnote. The rest is on how to deal with pandemics. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:30:28+00:00

@nntaleb They have > life expectancy, INCLUDING suicide. Permalink 2020-06-28 16:24:32+00:00

@nntaleb Spyros don’t be modest. We all learn from you! Permalink 2020-06-28 16:19:09+00:00

@nntaleb Debate with Ioannidis is live! Scientific papers are in, after the initial blog posts. https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-vs-taleb/ with @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo Thanks @pierrepinson & @spyrosmakrid ! Permalink 2020-06-28 16:16:12+00:00

@nntaleb OK, OK, Monday Permalink 2020-06-28 01:52:00+00:00

@nntaleb One of their olive oil suppliers told me it was the most reliable brand in America. In tests they were among the 4/~30 who did not cheat with their claims of extra virgin. Permalink 2020-06-27 23:35:47+00:00

@nntaleb The Mask Wearing BS Busting Probability Brigade has 1) Classico Tiramisu, and 2) White Tiramisu. In quantities! Permalink 2020-06-27 23:17:13+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot this is NOT what I am saying. Permalink 2020-06-27 20:53:34+00:00

@nntaleb All these “distances” are WRONG because of endogamy. I am redoing techniques for distance… See paper Permalink 2020-06-27 20:50:15+00:00

@nntaleb IQ follow up Trying to explain the difference between racism, homophily, and xenophobia in Principia Politica. The most destructively racists of all are IQ/evolutionary psychologists (often “centrists”) trying to put abilities in genetic boxes (the covert eugenist program). Permalink 2020-06-27 20:24:20+00:00

@nntaleb The most reliable! 100% of my cooking. Permalink 2020-06-27 19:05:04+00:00

@nntaleb Academics try to pass for scholars. Very very few are. Dentists, plumbers, grocers, or elephant trainers try to pass for dentists, plumbers, grocers, or elephant trainers, respectively. Almost all are. #Skininthegame Permalink 2020-06-27 18:51:32+00:00

@nntaleb Psychologists & pple who deal with IQ bullshit their way w/categories. I am 1- not lonely (exact opposite, fucking idiot) 2- hostile only to those who mess with me or my weaker friends. But then, verryyyyyyyy hostile 3- veryyyyy arrogant w/the arrogant. More than you think. Permalink 2020-06-27 18:25:53+00:00

@nntaleb Temperature in the center not edges. Permalink 2020-06-27 17:18:23+00:00

@nntaleb THanks Hugo. Problem solved! It foams every time. Permalink 2020-06-27 17:08:18+00:00

@nntaleb This map is fraud. Block the imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-27 13:18:03+00:00

@nntaleb Human accomplishment is gerrymandering: All are Meds not former Barbarians Permalink 2020-06-27 13:13:49+00:00

@nntaleb Stop the masquerade, your honor @JustinWelby “To pass for a Jew or a Nabatean [“Arabes”], a Roman had to pierce his ears or get circumcized, but to pass for a Gaul he needed to put chalk on his face…” [rephrased] Petronius, Satiricon It is Northern Europeans who were outsiders Permalink 2020-06-27 12:21:38+00:00

@nntaleb Yes many of these things are BS. Haplo are real. Permalink 2020-06-27 11:59:59+00:00

@nntaleb “Centrist” is also a nice formulation that gives cover to Eugenists — evolutionary psychogists and IQ classifiers trying to put not just people but populations into an IQ-based Apartheid. Permalink 2020-06-27 10:40:08+00:00

@nntaleb With all due respects, you honor @JustinWelby (Archbishop of Canterburry), stop producing racist BS. Permalink 2020-06-27 10:16:55+00:00

@nntaleb The Archbishop of Canterburry needs some fact checking: The Christ was not different from Greco-Romans. https://link.medium.com/C67bNgJpw7 Permalink 2020-06-27 10:13:13+00:00

@nntaleb When people define themselves as “centrists”, it is often because they are afraid for their reputation. People with integrity define themselves as “it depends on the issue”. Permalink 2020-06-26 22:47:19+00:00

@nntaleb How do you say scapellamente a destra in Lebanese? Permalink 2020-06-26 22:14:02+00:00

@nntaleb Venice has its Sarcelles: Mestre. Permalink 2020-06-26 21:25:35+00:00

@nntaleb Unfair I lost 12 lbs! Permalink 2020-06-26 20:26:59+00:00

@nntaleb In cauda probatio Permalink 2020-06-26 20:12:56+00:00

@nntaleb DEBATE WITH IOANNIDIS It took me 20 years to clearly formulate the idea that distributional evidence IS the strongest evidence, above naive observational evidence. cc:@PrecPrinciple @RupertRead Permalink 2020-06-26 20:04:05+00:00

@nntaleb Maybe someone from Koura as we say “mwayy” for mayy, Ipwad for Ipad, etc. [Koura shift] Permalink 2020-06-26 19:55:08+00:00

@nntaleb Margarita ante porcos Permalink 2020-06-26 18:59:52+00:00

@nntaleb Using logic with an antagonist is like eating a bison steak with a tea spoon. Permalink 2020-06-26 17:47:07+00:00

@nntaleb Mar7aba Buthayné. Tlabté skolarship la #RWRI? Permalink 2020-06-26 16:50:28+00:00

@nntaleb When was the last time you were in Lebanon? Permalink 2020-06-26 16:48:57+00:00

@nntaleb BULLSHIT Permalink 2020-06-26 15:41:48+00:00

@nntaleb The fragmented & “failed” states in Italy during their mess, CORRUPTION, INSTABILITY, wars,produced: Michelangelo,Brunelleschi, Pico d Mirandola, Machiavelli, Da Vinci, Galileo, SP Basilica, Doges Palace, Sistine C,Palestrina, Monteverdi, Cimabue, Bocaggio, Petrarch… #Lebanon Permalink 2020-06-26 15:40:26+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot you don’t need a qualifier before posting something I said. Why are you hedging yourself? Permalink 2020-06-26 13:58:39+00:00

@nntaleb I mean what is to come. Permalink 2020-06-26 00:27:58+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. The standards of living are much better IF you have a steady income. Even the safety. It is just geopolitics… Permalink 2020-06-25 23:49:44+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed, more surprising. Permalink 2020-06-25 23:46:51+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked him because he is a bullshitter and I have some allergy. Here he proved to be an insensitive racist. Permalink 2020-06-25 23:12:59+00:00

@nntaleb The essence of #BLM is that African Americans are mistreated, & that imbecile Mark Manson trying to gerrymander with other origins is insulting (BTW the census classifies all Mediterraneans as white). This is vicious. It is about a community that continues to suffer. Permalink 2020-06-25 22:56:32+00:00

@nntaleb That sub-imbecile Mark Manson should not decide on people’s race and POC is an insulting designation. Permalink 2020-06-25 22:45:36+00:00

@nntaleb Starting in 8 minutes. Permalink 2020-06-25 21:22:38+00:00

@nntaleb It was it the Talmud אין הקדוש ברוך הוא מכה את ישראל אלא אם כן בורא להם רפואה תחילה Permalink 2020-06-25 19:11:53+00:00

@nntaleb הקדים רפואה למכה Permalink 2020-06-25 19:05:25+00:00

@nntaleb Fake news from Dwaihi Permalink 2020-06-25 19:04:14+00:00

@nntaleb @dailyjobs_lb Permalink 2020-06-25 18:58:23+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-25 18:44:11+00:00

@nntaleb The wise @davidboxenhorn once said: The Lord gives you the remedy first, then the disease Works permits frozen? No problemo: companies are now geared for remote work, can hire someone overseas & keep her/him in their parent’s basement #Indians, #Lebanese don’t need to emigrate Permalink 2020-06-25 18:40:43+00:00

@nntaleb My NY stove is different, a bit high. It is not foaming as well as the one down South. Too high a flame and it is black. Too low, same story. Solution, Maestro Ugo? Permalink 2020-06-25 18:20:32+00:00

@nntaleb The same NYT published crap abt why one should not react, even psycho-pathologized worriers. We got a lot of flack for our Jan 26 piece. Same w/2008 crisis: published a hit piece on me by that fraud Joe Nocera @opinion_joe then flipped & said we shd have see warning signs. Permalink 2020-06-25 17:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb He was never banned. I just gave him a hard time because of his name. Permalink 2020-06-25 15:14:29+00:00

@nntaleb You were amply discussed @alexandersquats @trishankkarthik @VergilDen Permalink 2020-06-25 14:54:35+00:00

@nntaleb مطعم Permalink 2020-06-25 14:54:06+00:00

@nntaleb The error: We NEVER play Russian Roulette with collective risks. Only with individual risks. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #ScaleTransformation Permalink 2020-06-25 14:35:58+00:00

@nntaleb Voila your answer Permalink 2020-06-25 14:01:35+00:00

@nntaleb New York [Meeting of the Mask Wearing BS Busting Probability Brigade, MW-BSBPB, formerly BSBPB] Permalink 2020-06-25 12:52:28+00:00

@nntaleb You are using a Brikka, not this. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:48:25+00:00

@nntaleb Found it. Replied. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:47:22+00:00

@nntaleb What are you using? Permalink 2020-06-25 12:43:03+00:00

@nntaleb I meant there was no email from you or any Cypriot national in my inbox. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:42:38+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t understand that COVID probabilities scale up because of contagion. Permalink 2020-06-25 12:08:29+00:00

@nntaleb No email Permalink 2020-06-25 11:35:54+00:00

@nntaleb I am not following the fight but I love fights! Permalink 2020-06-25 10:45:31+00:00

@nntaleb When I was a trader, “he’s a nice guy” meant “he’s an idiot”. Permalink 2020-06-24 22:06:00+00:00

@nntaleb You guys never heard me speak when I cross madfun. Automatically 100% kouroné, cursing 90% of the sentences. 7sen met my mother. Permalink 2020-06-24 22:04:54+00:00

@nntaleb Haybe bitballesh bi “mawta mawtek ya seyyed” Permalink 2020-06-24 21:56:59+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-24 21:51:22+00:00

@nntaleb In Amioun pple insult one another to be friendly, Bil m7abbé. You tell someone “y2abbrak mawték” or “yel3an abul khala2ak” a= “welcome”. Telling someone “we have better kebbe” is not an insult, but a sign of humorous respect. I wonder if it is common elsewhere. @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-06-24 21:42:55+00:00

@nntaleb And we are known to have the WORSE sense of humor of all the Levant. Permalink 2020-06-24 21:38:34+00:00

@nntaleb Amioun is better. Better olives, higher mountains, nicer accent, better kebbe. Permalink 2020-06-24 21:35:25+00:00

@nntaleb This fellow figured out what almost (perhaps all) psychologists of probability got wrong (why I call “superforecasters” a masquerade). Permalink 2020-06-24 21:32:53+00:00

@nntaleb Usurpation! Olives = Koura. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:59:30+00:00

@nntaleb Never called you a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:52:49+00:00

@nntaleb No need to respond to such stupidity. He did not get our idea. There are ONLY 72 pandemics >1000 people in recorded history. We are using conditional distribution. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:52:11+00:00

@nntaleb Something is hitting soon re:Armenia and migrations. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:45:43+00:00

@nntaleb They don’t do it for a living. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:45:03+00:00

@nntaleb There are other people I will not expose as bullshitters because I broke bread with them. With Tetlock (Phil the Rat🐁@PTetlock) I waited for him to violate certain golden rules of trust before exposing him. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:38:33+00:00

@nntaleb Fukuyama is a triple bullshitter. Graeber is not. I may not like his research but he is not a BS vendor. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:32:47+00:00

@nntaleb Can you use LateX ? Spreads faster on Twitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:29:13+00:00

@nntaleb I never call him a bullshitter. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:17:57+00:00

@nntaleb 22-26% proportion of blue/green eyes. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:17:33+00:00

@nntaleb Is there such a thing as an erasable tatoo? Permalink 2020-06-24 19:14:57+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, I am looking to find someone I’ve called a bullshitter who did not eventually turn out to be one. Permalink 2020-06-24 19:13:54+00:00

@nntaleb The rule is people who get tatoos can no longer translate the Incerto. No dispensation was given so far. Permalink 2020-06-24 18:56:13+00:00

@nntaleb My 2nd copy of your book is on the way Permalink 2020-06-24 18:08:33+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:48:35+00:00

@nntaleb Psychologist commenting on the IQ piece: “(…) but the correlation…” Me: “Define correlation” Psychologist: “…” (silence) Permalink 2020-06-24 15:26:46+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, he should not diss & pathologize IQ and heritability sceptics. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:22:51+00:00

@nntaleb Not about him but this “denialism” crap IS a cover for both racism & centralization. Permalink 2020-06-24 15:15:26+00:00

@nntaleb Les disputes avec Douady sont en français. Permalink 2020-06-24 14:11:30+00:00

@nntaleb Racism exists AND is promoted by these IQ fucks. No need to be soft on BOTH racism AND pseudoscience. Gabish? Permalink 2020-06-24 14:10:24+00:00

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-06-24 13:17:11+00:00

@nntaleb It is actually a function of correlation, no need for Gaussian to compute MI. Permalink 2020-06-24 13:13:45+00:00

@nntaleb I have the code. Will post in 2 h. Permalink 2020-06-24 13:12:32+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-24 12:50:32+00:00

@nntaleb The fundamental mistake is transitivity of correlation. Plus others of course. Permalink 2020-06-24 11:56:12+00:00

@nntaleb I am not condemning him, condemning the “IQ denial” stance. Permalink 2020-06-24 11:33:24+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-24 10:28:15+00:00

@nntaleb There is an economist who does the stuff, based at George Mason U. I engaged. Total idiot, can’t remember his name. Permalink 2020-06-24 10:07:10+00:00

@nntaleb This imbecile just showed how info on IQ is manufactured from left tail. IN SPITE OF CHERRYPICKED EXAMPLE +IQ self-correlate at .8: you have ~1 STD difference w/yourself. +Death ∆ betw top brackets=.2, obviously average has no impact. My point! Permalink 2020-06-24 10:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb Derida mon cher… Permalink 2020-06-23 23:41:14+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots Permalink 2020-06-23 21:20:27+00:00

@nntaleb My stance on IQ has NOTHING to do with my origins (which rightwing crackpots s.a.@kentaronline don’t know): country IQ is, as I said a fraud: it was NEVER measured (& if it were, you’d have some v. serious surprises). I keep getting these msgs since my IQ piece by RW crackpots Permalink 2020-06-23 20:55:09+00:00

@nntaleb Human nature cannot change. Our structures must. Permalink 2020-06-23 19:51:24+00:00

@nntaleb I managed to tell France Culture (French ratio) that (unlike their scientists), their intellectuals were BS operators (and have been at least since Julien Benda’s Trahison des Clercs, ~95 y ago). It is equivalent to insulting Catholicism standing in the Vatican in 1933. Permalink 2020-06-23 19:22:35+00:00

@nntaleb Higher level, my friend. Permalink 2020-06-23 18:27:53+00:00

@nntaleb Something is, but not captured by their metrics. Permalink 2020-06-23 18:20:51+00:00

@nntaleb Here is my IQ piece. Permalink 2020-06-23 16:23:00+00:00

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile, Plomin’s data OVERSTATES heritability. Your tabula rasa argument does not apply. Permalink 2020-06-23 16:08:38+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed IQ is sinister pseudoscience, so calling someone an “IQ denier” or “heritability denier” is insulting the entier process of science. Evolutionary Psychologists are frausters in a citation ring. Permalink 2020-06-23 15:44:56+00:00

@nntaleb Great! Thanks Permalink 2020-06-23 15:35:37+00:00

@nntaleb Gene he does not know about a certain computer scientist who lost his job in computer science while NOT writing about computer science. Permalink 2020-06-23 15:23:12+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-23 15:13:25+00:00

@nntaleb These programs principally support Fed employees (such as Daly) in their future job prospects on Wall Street which rewards people who comply thanks to the revolving door. Permalink 2020-06-23 14:06:17+00:00

@nntaleb New stove, in NY. Not working as well. Can we recap? 1) Should the flame be higher or lower? 2) Should I increase at the end? Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-23 14:04:31+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! The institution is not free. I am. Permalink 2020-06-23 14:02:44+00:00

@nntaleb He was not free before becoming famous. And he is the true exception. Permalink 2020-06-23 13:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, there is NO discipline that allows one to write freely even within the least political subjects. Permalink 2020-06-23 13:38:20+00:00

@nntaleb J’explique les choses en français (enfin j’essaye), 17 minutes de conversation. Permalink 2020-06-23 12:39:00+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Sorry. Permalink 2020-06-23 12:11:58+00:00

@nntaleb Explain to me why I shd give a fuck about how I “look” to you. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:47:55+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people for sophistry. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:44:35+00:00

@nntaleb ACADEMIC “FREEDOM” The illusion held for so long by academics that one can be both free & on a salary is finally crashing. Worse, something J-P Sartre figured out: you cannot be both free & attached to an institution. Any institution. A truck driver is freer than any academic. Permalink 2020-06-23 11:28:46+00:00

@nntaleb This is excellent. From you? Permalink 2020-06-23 03:34:37+00:00

@nntaleb Claire, by now you should realize that I have no more use for you, neither for the good nor for the bad. No use at all. Permalink 2020-06-23 02:02:35+00:00

@nntaleb OK redid with Imam Permalink 2020-06-23 01:38:28+00:00

@nntaleb Ponit enim personam amici cum induit iudicis [Cicero]” والله ما ترك لي الحق من صاحب” [Imam Ali] Permalink 2020-06-23 01:38:09+00:00

@nntaleb I mean the protocol Permalink 2020-06-23 01:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb How should I write it? Permalink 2020-06-23 01:33:57+00:00

@nntaleb Mtl l siyese l yunéné: “disown your friends when you reach office”. Permalink 2020-06-23 01:26:26+00:00

@nntaleb كيف بتترجما علغتنا؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 01:10:53+00:00

@nntaleb La2, ghayron. Permalink 2020-06-23 01:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb نهج البلاغة؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 00:56:20+00:00

@nntaleb The 2 of you are supposed to be fighting, as a good thing for #RWRI Permalink 2020-06-23 00:37:51+00:00

@nntaleb The Byzantine-Sassanite war of 602-620. We need @DrMichaelBonner to get its importance. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:36:49+00:00

@nntaleb وين هيدا؟ من النهج؟ Permalink 2020-06-23 00:33:23+00:00

@nntaleb They LIKE militarism Permalink 2020-06-23 00:27:13+00:00

@nntaleb Nothing yet. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:26:40+00:00

@nntaleb I never defended HCQ; my point was that the studies “debunking” were flawed and IN THE ABSENCE of further information, take what has the track recort of toxicity. Permalink 2020-06-23 00:25:54+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ So I am hated by Libertarians over masks/Silver Rule, Socialists for fractal Liberty, Democrats (US) for interventionism/paternalism, Republicans (US) for militarism, Both for corporatism, eugenists for IQ debunking, Arabist fascists for Mediterranean localism, by Statists… Permalink 2020-06-23 00:21:03+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-22 23:08:07+00:00

@nntaleb Hahahahahaha Permalink 2020-06-22 23:06:44+00:00

@nntaleb This is tooooooootal nonsense. It is dishonest to play race with such matters, and even more dishonest to lie about it. Caucasian (“white”) ≠ “European” as per EU membership. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4 Permalink 2020-06-22 21:19:23+00:00

@nntaleb (BTW my experience is that Keto strips measure principally hydration, which causes a lot of noise. Useless.) Permalink 2020-06-22 20:23:55+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a yuuuuuuuuge war! Brought Zoroastrianism/Nestorianism to the Levant, later Maronitism/Shiism indirectly. Khosroe-van = Kesserwan in Lebanon Permalink 2020-06-22 19:34:19+00:00

@nntaleb Keto sticks measure water more than Keto! Permalink 2020-06-22 19:31:36+00:00

@nntaleb I took shortcuts. Permalink 2020-06-22 19:24:49+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, a Keto Question Humans keep ar. 2500 cal in “carbs” stored in muscles & liver. So does one enter ketosis by fasting 24h (assuming 2500 cal/day expenditure)? If so, shouldn’t one remain subsequently in ketosis regardless of food composition if <2500 consumed afterwards? Permalink 2020-06-22 19:23:58+00:00

@nntaleb No Sci Fi, never liked it. Except for HG Wells, of course. Permalink 2020-06-22 17:27:24+00:00

@nntaleb Separate floor Permalink 2020-06-22 17:20:54+00:00

@nntaleb After nearly 4 months, the emotion of being reunited with my (nontechnical) library. Permalink 2020-06-22 17:11:50+00:00

@nntaleb Which is why we need precise terms for that crap. Permalink 2020-06-22 16:58:38+00:00

@nntaleb The worst is: what to do when it comes from “white” people? Chromoclassification is a problem. Permalink 2020-06-22 16:50:46+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a HE; he changed his picture. Permalink 2020-06-22 14:17:30+00:00

@nntaleb I mean here is the technical Permalink 2020-06-22 12:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb And of course this came AFTER I debunked the sinister programs. 1) BS with IQ metrics https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 2) Less technical commentary Permalink 2020-06-22 12:51:53+00:00

@nntaleb It is not the defense of free expression but the COVER of free expression that I am pointing out. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:36:58+00:00

@nntaleb Indeed. Arabs were themselves trying to NOT be Persianized. Baghdad was Persian speaking and Arabs brought more Arabic speakers, ironically the Mizrahi Jews, who were up to 50% of the population of Baghdad. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:15:18+00:00

@nntaleb MLK’s program was civil rights (which he NEVER hid) and of course requiring free speech. Others claim their program free speech but in fact theirs is a sinister Eugenics agenda. Permalink 2020-06-22 12:03:15+00:00

@nntaleb How about when you walk? Permalink 2020-06-22 02:04:45+00:00

@nntaleb Who she? Permalink 2020-06-21 21:14:17+00:00

@nntaleb Xenophobia, discrimination, etc. Permalink 2020-06-21 18:34:06+00:00

@nntaleb Not necessarily. You can hate a group precisely because you think they are successful –antisemitism Permalink 2020-06-21 18:08:16+00:00

@nntaleb In other words: “I don’t want your group around” is xenophobia. “Your group has inferior mental abilities” is something else. Permalink 2020-06-21 18:01:54+00:00

@nntaleb I separate the 2 in Principia Politica. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:56:06+00:00

@nntaleb One is xenophobia, one is the degradation in the human hierarchy. Not same. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:54:55+00:00

@nntaleb It is never really racism against the “prestige” group. But I agree some groups are losing the prestige status. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:43:01+00:00

@nntaleb How long you’ve used it? Permalink 2020-06-21 17:31:04+00:00

@nntaleb Another route from @SrinivasR1729’s : You can use the generating function of the inverse binomial coefficients and prove == Pi. Permalink 2020-06-21 17:21:51+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a HE. He just changed picture. Permalink 2020-06-21 14:36:23+00:00

@nntaleb As a matter of fact central states discouraged the use of masks for the first 3 months Permalink 2020-06-21 14:21:58+00:00

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t event get what “white means” and who’s in and out of it. Permalink 2020-06-21 14:12:19+00:00

@nntaleb Mazola is poison. Total poison. I spent 4 months without eating in restaurants. Only butter and olive oil. Never felt stronger (max lifts), lost 12 lbs. Permalink 2020-06-21 13:47:44+00:00

@nntaleb 1) I explain in #SkinintheGame scale transformations: Bitcoin is a good idea but almost all bitcoiners are total idiots, can’t get nuances beyond fortune cookies. 2) My idea is (fractal) State is needed ONLY for systemic tail risks, not messing w/daily life. Same as medicines. Permalink 2020-06-21 13:16:29+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not chauvinism: just to let you know that the “prestige” for Northern European is a recent phenomenon & that they have NOTHING to do with Greco-Roman civilization from which they claim descent. They have no claims to supremacy, so chill out and respect others. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:45:54+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of Nilotic civilizations plus Aethiopia. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:42:55+00:00

@nntaleb GS correlates does not determine scholarship. Peterson is a quack. Permalink 2020-06-21 12:25:39+00:00

@nntaleb Makes it worse: statism Permalink 2020-06-21 11:56:23+00:00

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it Permalink 2020-06-21 11:36:14+00:00

@nntaleb Charles Murray their lord is not a scholar. Not one of them is a scholar. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:30:14+00:00

@nntaleb Not one here is a scholar. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:29:16+00:00

@nntaleb The IQ story: not most, but ALL of these “researchers” and “statisticians” are statistically ignorant. These psychologists don’t even know what metrics s.a. correlation mean. Science is science. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:21:40+00:00

@nntaleb In 1900 the Aleppo region was richer than most places today in the EU. It was the wealthiest area of the Roman Empire (providing 4-5 emperors, 5 popes, etc.) All it took is the Baath centralized state to destroy it. They still don’t get it. Discussion in #Antifragile Permalink 2020-06-21 11:16:07+00:00

@nntaleb Almost ALL those who claim to be fighting for “free speech” are fighting to promote sinister racial ideas. That’s the case w/ IQ-race “research”, race “realism”, Quillette/ @charlesmurray/@clairlemon KKK’s David Duke has a “Free Speech Press” w/books on “Jewish Supremacism”. Permalink 2020-06-21 11:10:31+00:00

@nntaleb The problem is the alternative brings Cass Sunstein types back to the white house. Permalink 2020-06-21 01:27:46+00:00

@nntaleb It is one thing to have young leaderless protesters spreading viruses locally. But here the chief executive of the US is organizing the mother of all REDISTRIBUTION of germs across the country… And then they complain about the “economic costs” of “fighting” the pandemic. Permalink 2020-06-21 01:14:46+00:00

@nntaleb (That’s what people used to tell his parents. Some things don’t cross generations.) Permalink 2020-06-21 00:54:57+00:00

@nntaleb You still get comments like these. Do they think I will turn the other cheek? Permalink 2020-06-21 00:32:38+00:00

@nntaleb This is commonly known as a “superspreader event”. (Although perhaps 2-10% of people have masks) Permalink 2020-06-21 00:14:15+00:00

@nntaleb Destroyed by centralization Permalink 2020-06-20 23:40:00+00:00

@nntaleb Yes mostly from one obervation on the right. Permalink 2020-06-20 19:59:57+00:00

@nntaleb Code Permalink 2020-06-20 19:40:46+00:00

@nntaleb It is the histogram Permalink 2020-06-20 19:39:26+00:00

@nntaleb “If?” Permalink 2020-06-20 19:35:07+00:00

@nntaleb How UNCERTAINTY about the exponential growth rate translates into higher expected fatalities. Permalink 2020-06-20 19:30:08+00:00

@nntaleb Never trust someone who puts ethical in their titles. Permalink 2020-06-20 18:45:09+00:00

@nntaleb Never Lebanon. I met Zilkha who said: I was dispossessed in Egypt, Iraq, and Syria. Never Leb. Permalink 2020-06-20 17:23:02+00:00

@nntaleb Kll l bil 3arabé. Kamm wa7ad? Permalink 2020-06-20 17:00:22+00:00

@nntaleb COME PREVISTO In our papers, @DrCirillo and I have made sure our results are resistant to lies. We actually treated all historians as liars via bootstraps –yet no change for the tail exponents for wars and pandemics. Permalink 2020-06-20 16:57:49+00:00

@nntaleb Wassil 3 a NY Permalink 2020-06-20 16:50:02+00:00

@nntaleb Guess which one is an academic? Permalink 2020-06-20 16:41:59+00:00

@nntaleb Phi (Golden ratio). The proof is via tricks Permalink 2020-06-20 16:27:44+00:00

@nntaleb I had that idiot on mute. Berenson has the logical clarity of an oil spill. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:52:27+00:00

@nntaleb M, I have an idea for you. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:37:35+00:00

@nntaleb Meshia7o Permalink 2020-06-20 13:24:21+00:00

@nntaleb Wait 5 years. Permalink 2020-06-20 13:22:35+00:00

@nntaleb Be patient Pietro Permalink 2020-06-20 12:45:25+00:00

@nntaleb Being the judge. Permalink 2020-06-20 12:44:34+00:00

@nntaleb You must have the discipline to seek revenge and deliver punishment when you don’t really feel like it anymore; and do it purely out of a sense of duty, acting as a sentencing judge rather than a plaintif. Permalink 2020-06-20 02:23:44+00:00

@nntaleb Ahla bil tayfé ya Theodosius Permalink 2020-06-20 02:16:49+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-20 01:06:38+00:00

@nntaleb 4/n This is similar to aversion to plane crashes. A tiny risk of crash, orders of magnitude smaller than death from COVID, causes enough people to avoid flying in the 737 max to make it unprofitable. Governments follow. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:56:11+00:00

@nntaleb 3/n Pea-brained pseudo-libertarians (PBPL) attribute the loss of economic activity to the “lockdown” brought by “government”, not to the virus Few who are neither brain-dead nor PBPL wd voluntarily go expose themselves to viruses. Risk aversion is responsible for economic effects Permalink 2020-06-20 00:38:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2/n I am not saying 1) here is the authority of Hayek, or 2) Hayek was a “true” libertarian. I am just fed up with sociopaths with reduced brain functions citing Hayek to justify their crackpot theories about the pandemic. Period. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:32:03+00:00

@nntaleb HAYEK vs PSEUDOLIBERTARIANS For those invoking “libertarianism” in front of natural calamities, some news for you: Hayek explicitly gives a role to the “state”: protection against violence, epidemics, and natural disasters. Namely; TAIL RISKS. He understood uncertainty/tails. Permalink 2020-06-20 00:03:22+00:00

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-06-19 23:34:19+00:00

@nntaleb Isn’t that Monte Carlo with smart sampling? Permalink 2020-06-19 22:37:16+00:00

@nntaleb بأيا لغا؟ بلشامي؟ Permalink 2020-06-19 21:44:30+00:00

@nntaleb How about this? https://www.amazon.com/CARE-Natural-Sponge-Cloths-Count/dp/B0078DQXQC/ref=sr_1_12?dchild=1&keywords=sponges+extra+thin&qid=1592602856&sr=8-12 Permalink 2020-06-19 21:42:30+00:00

@nntaleb I do 3-5x, but @GrantSSC has a theory that 10x deadlift once in a while helps break out of plateaus. Permalink 2020-06-19 20:27:14+00:00

@nntaleb What’s the official SS dogma on gloves, @GrantSSC ? Permalink 2020-06-19 19:57:59+00:00

@nntaleb Weightlifting questions. Friends, how do you deal with hand calluses for high reps? The pain starts after 8 reps regardless of weight. + Chalk: no effect for high reps, helpful at low reps/high load. + Straps: using them= cheating as they prevent the wrist from getting stronger. Permalink 2020-06-19 19:47:00+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-19 19:37:04+00:00

@nntaleb In Aramaic! Permalink 2020-06-19 19:29:31+00:00

@nntaleb E nato ad Alessandria Permalink 2020-06-19 18:54:33+00:00

@nntaleb I did not make a big deal to protect him. But now things are different. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:51:43+00:00

@nntaleb Come Umberto E. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:48:09+00:00

@nntaleb Institutions evolve to be taken over by rent-seekers. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:40:12+00:00

@nntaleb Not “leftist”. Soviet. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:38:06+00:00

@nntaleb So “sectarianism” means nonBaathist. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:29:44+00:00

@nntaleb Antifragile = bottom up sectarianism that clashes with the centralized Baath program. It targets directly the Baath centralization in a chapter. The person in question is some type of Baathist-fascist, etc. Yet in charge of the philosophy dept. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:28:43+00:00

@nntaleb By https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=2HaZQbAAAAAJ&hl=en Permalink 2020-06-19 18:20:02+00:00

@nntaleb AUB is the ONLY place on the planet, in 41 languages, where my work has been banned. Permalink 2020-06-19 18:14:41+00:00

@nntaleb An incident of the sort at NYU would cause a complete riot. The fact that they exploit labor AND deprive them of freedom is a serious problem. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:44:11+00:00

@nntaleb Wael, listen to Ma7mud, if you like AUB. They banned my book in the philosophy department –yes, banned. Tells you something about the culture of the institution. We will know more later; but first let help it survive. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:38:25+00:00

@nntaleb In CH they pay taxes mostly locally. Here we send the bulk to DC. Permalink 2020-06-19 17:17:44+00:00

@nntaleb These FUNDS are Federal from taxes they paid. Permalink 2020-06-19 16:42:32+00:00

@nntaleb Coercion of the smaller units & forcing them to conform to the central command is a Soviet thing. Counties, towns, individuals should be free to set their own rules. Permalink 2020-06-19 16:28:58+00:00

@nntaleb For a long time, until the early 20th C, Byzantines took the attitude “neither East nor West” or “both East or West”, or, even better “East and West are a construction outside our interests”. Permalink 2020-06-19 13:27:35+00:00

@nntaleb I read the passage when he was *riding* high (literally). Permalink 2020-06-19 13:04:41+00:00

@nntaleb The Byzantines were considered part of the East (in France, “les orientaux”). Same with Gibbon who was allergic to “Asian” mores and love of luxury . Example: Bertrand Russell’s History of Western Philosophy: Permalink 2020-06-19 12:31:28+00:00

@nntaleb The Roman army rule: action removes fear. Permalink 2020-06-19 12:13:13+00:00

@nntaleb Maria Mavroudi’s lecture For those not familiar w/her work: Byzantium got bad press during the enlightenment because 1)Christian, 2)Autocracy, 3)For Western Bleached Barbarian (WBB, my term) supremacism, “Rome”=German Holy R Empire Intellectual contributions dismissed by the WBB Permalink 2020-06-19 12:08:02+00:00

@nntaleb There are “Libertarians” (sociopaths looking for cover) and true Libertarians. Permalink 2020-06-19 11:18:11+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile, breathing multiplicative germs are not aggression? Permalink 2020-06-19 01:24:47+00:00

@nntaleb Better with the syrup. Permalink 2020-06-19 01:17:30+00:00

@nntaleb MASKS Libertarians are behaving like abused stepchildren with premature insomnia, bad school reports,& the moral clarity of house termites. It’s not because SOME states are requiring masks that they MUST be bad. States also ban murder. Should homicide be an assertion of freedom? Permalink 2020-06-19 01:16:08+00:00

@nntaleb They also banned murder. Imbecile! Permalink 2020-06-19 00:09:17+00:00

@nntaleb You have the understanding of a parrot overdosing on bad vodka. Get off Twitter. Nobody mentioned any government. This is called ethics. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-19 00:06:42+00:00

@nntaleb A7ikar preceded Aesop with his fables. Permalink 2020-06-18 23:22:51+00:00

@nntaleb A few years behind my tweet! Got to find it! Permalink 2020-06-18 23:18:00+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-06-18 22:30:04+00:00

@nntaleb Remember that by NOT wearing a mask you will contribute to someone else’s death AND will hurt the economy. Permalink 2020-06-18 22:05:28+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite; localism has worked best under some Imperial supervision (Roman empire, Hapsburgs, etc.) Permalink 2020-06-18 20:54:19+00:00

@nntaleb Is this in favor or against some adult supervision, say from the IMF (or something similar)? Permalink 2020-06-18 18:16:08+00:00

@nntaleb Koura? Permalink 2020-06-18 16:50:06+00:00

@nntaleb A sad feature of these campus events is that academics like @robinhanson, @hsu_steve or others, with the intellectual solidity of a bag of marshmallow marinated for weeks in Lebanese grape vinegar, are now free-speech victims rather than just nonsolid authors. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:44:31+00:00

@nntaleb 2) NOT SAYING the world has Fat Tails. That, we have known for a while. Saying TOOLS of analysis & THEORIES are INCOMPATIBLE w/Fat Tails. They become totally uninformative. Example: Building a portfolio on “correlation” and “St deviation” or making inf “regression” is BS. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:24:25+00:00

@nntaleb No I am saying the TOOLS of analysis are uninformative. Permalink 2020-06-18 16:21:03+00:00

@nntaleb The less polite abstract of my talk next Thursday: It is not 99% of modern finance that is practically, mathematically, & scientifically BS. It is 100%. The ENTIRE foundations are made for thin tails. From my next book. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-06-18 16:10:54+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo, not from Syriac Permalink 2020-06-18 13:08:42+00:00

@nntaleb The exception that confirm the rule: monopolistic situations and market shortages. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:52:15+00:00

@nntaleb Hard to understand why people are so blind to the difference between necessary and sufficient. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:43:22+00:00

@nntaleb To be free, you must be the customer. Permalink 2020-06-18 12:25:20+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get the paper, nor the NAP. Permalink 2020-06-18 11:29:24+00:00

@nntaleb Must be kelime, no? Permalink 2020-06-17 22:23:08+00:00

@nntaleb Unlikely Permalink 2020-06-17 20:48:37+00:00

@nntaleb Very, very unlikely. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:41:03+00:00

@nntaleb That’s babylonian @EdmondShami Permalink 2020-06-17 20:27:40+00:00

@nntaleb OK OK Found the root for kalam كلام To teach, lecture. Stange coincidence with pen Permalink 2020-06-17 20:26:43+00:00

@nntaleb It is pronounced “yuuuge” but written “huuuge”. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:19:26+00:00

@nntaleb كلام قلم 2 different roots. one is “word” the other is kalamos. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:18:54+00:00

@nntaleb Not for kalaam. it is a kaf ك not ق Permalink 2020-06-17 20:09:45+00:00

@nntaleb Made same mistake. قلم comes from kalamos. Kalaam (with a k) not sure.Will look. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:07:35+00:00

@nntaleb Strangly, daftar (notebook) comes from deftero in Greek. Permalink 2020-06-17 20:06:05+00:00

@nntaleb Great book Permalink 2020-06-17 17:15:05+00:00

@nntaleb “Predictions are self-fulling or self canceling” You can’t judge forecasts that lead to action because of the forecast (say caution). Can’t believe these IYS not seeing it. Permalink 2020-06-17 17:03:28+00:00

@nntaleb UBERSTATISTICIAN ANDREW GELMAN: (Some) forecasting for COVID-19 has failed: a discussion of Taleb and Ioannidis et al. « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/06/17/some-forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed-a-discussion-of-taleb-and-ioannidis-et-al/#.Xuo_8FKD5KA.twitter Permalink 2020-06-17 16:08:51+00:00

@nntaleb C’e un’espressione italiana vicino al l’antico proverbio greco: “Consiglio di vecchio e aiuto di giovane” Permalink 2020-06-17 14:11:38+00:00

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-06-17 14:02:01+00:00

@nntaleb No need for theorem. Absence of mean is absence of mean. Permalink 2020-06-17 14:00:54+00:00

@nntaleb Modern Greek (attempt) Δύναμη από νέους Συμβουλές από ηλικιωμένους Permalink 2020-06-17 13:45:11+00:00

@nntaleb Strength from the young Advice from the old Permalink 2020-06-17 13:44:22+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-17 13:26:15+00:00

@nntaleb Νεοις μεν εργα, βουλας δε γεραιτεροις [Corpus paroemiographorum graecorum] Permalink 2020-06-17 13:21:02+00:00

@nntaleb ΝΕΟΙΣ ΜΕΝ ΕΡΓΑ , ΒΟΥΛΑΣ ΔΕ ΓΕΡΑΙΤΕΡΟΙΣ Permalink 2020-06-17 13:19:44+00:00

@nntaleb No branch of traditional conservatism includes creeps like @AnnCoulter. Must be a new reverse-Burkean one. Permalink 2020-06-17 12:07:29+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, it requires a huuuge amount of heroism, physical courage, moral compass, gratitude, Christian values, and not least, classical virtues, to betray intergenerational commitments, sacrifice the weakest, and commit geronticide [that is, the genocide of the elderly]. Permalink 2020-06-17 11:04:59+00:00

@nntaleb Greatest historical irony. Permalink 2020-06-17 02:05:37+00:00

@nntaleb Dear Raj, I am sorry for your loss. Permalink 2020-06-17 00:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-17 00:12:06+00:00

@nntaleb To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 2020-06-16 22:19:47+00:00

@nntaleb I used wisdom for nature. Permalink 2020-06-16 22:02:37+00:00

@nntaleb Another lesson: opportunity cost requires a handle on the first moment. How can someone be so clueless, Mr PhD? Permalink 2020-06-16 21:22:30+00:00

@nntaleb How does selection bias and EVT connect to opportunity cost? Permalink 2020-06-16 21:19:41+00:00

@nntaleb Ortmann Permalink 2020-06-16 20:26:49+00:00

@nntaleb Orgman, Phd, explain to us how to do extreme value analysis without extreme values. Permalink 2020-06-16 20:24:06+00:00

@nntaleb I used “Nature” Permalink 2020-06-16 20:14:36+00:00

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 2020-06-16 20:08:40+00:00

@nntaleb You can’t teach pigs to fly, Bert. Permalink 2020-06-16 19:57:13+00:00

@nntaleb It is not Ioannides but this economist did not catch it. Permalink 2020-06-16 19:25:53+00:00

@nntaleb One needs to be really, really, really ignorant about statistics (plus an economist) to buy that the entire set of tail events is “selection bias” (this is the standard EVT approach and REMOVING would be selection bias) @DrCirillo Permalink 2020-06-16 19:16:41+00:00

@nntaleb Odds it came from a jar. No squid with it? Permalink 2020-06-16 18:49:05+00:00

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-06-16 18:31:23+00:00

@nntaleb I was in Palermo EXACTLY a year ago. Naples is more intense. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:30:23+00:00

@nntaleb Palermo is too Phoenician. Taormina is the Greek side. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:22:36+00:00

@nntaleb We only hear about “imperfect” crimes. “Perfect crimes” will never be discovered –by definition. Permalink 2020-06-16 17:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo! Permalink 2020-06-16 16:14:11+00:00

@nntaleb I DO address his points, Nir. Permalink 2020-06-16 16:05:26+00:00

@nntaleb DEBATE W IOANNIDIS Some asked to discuss @PTetlock’s forecasting. I answered Ioannidis because I think he is wrong. Unlike Ioannidis, Phil the rat🐁 Tetlock is *not even* wrong. He is a despicable BS Vendor who misrepresents the “collaboration” w/me. Permalink 2020-06-16 15:40:01+00:00

@nntaleb No, Oliver. You don’t block people for not understanding something. We all make mistakes all the time. You block people for intellectual dishonesty, which is very, very, very different. cc:@bmiloy Permalink 2020-06-16 15:28:57+00:00

@nntaleb I am careful about propaganda. Both sides in the conflict BS you. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:56:58+00:00

@nntaleb That’s a local authority. Very different. And compatible with subsidiarity. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:55:45+00:00

@nntaleb You do not seem to realize what’s going on. There is no “movement” but there is an organization, #RWRI whch is nothing bt continuous fights betw. instructors openly disagreeing (2 of whom mut blocked on Twitter), not counting when @Jaffer22915438 comes in to harass us. Permalink 2020-06-16 14:13:57+00:00

@nntaleb If via negative were universal it would be via positiva, no? Permalink 2020-06-16 13:48:16+00:00

@nntaleb What’s wrong with an autonomous zone? Permalink 2020-06-16 13:40:04+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Both taking OR rejecting lumps from a “movement” are unrigorous. My only request is to avoid falling in the exact opposite trap, namely the genetic fallacy that if it is associated with X then it MUST be wrong. Some things are wrong with Complexity. Permalink 2020-06-16 13:33:17+00:00

@nntaleb The only award is time. The very notion of award goes against the collective iterative process called science. Permalink 2020-06-16 13:15:03+00:00

@nntaleb 3a 2bel l alf Permalink 2020-06-16 13:10:34+00:00

@nntaleb So @hvairinhos unless you answer the above questions in a rational and responsible way, sorry but you will be blocked. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:54:21+00:00

@nntaleb PS- I blocked your friend Benoux NOT for disagreeing but for DISTORTING what I and some other people were saying. (For instance nobody is against “specialists”, only untested macroBS citation rings with aggregate variables that are fat tailed.) Never tolerate dishonesty. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:43:59+00:00

@nntaleb And you think it is the government that is the cause of that or people’s reactions? Permalink 2020-06-16 12:35:39+00:00

@nntaleb Yes. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:13:26+00:00

@nntaleb Finally, the ideas in the Incerto are about handling uncertainty at the individual and systemic level. They are not about LOCALISM but incl a footnote on how things behave differently at different SCALES. Realize the Prec. Principle is PRECISELY for when localism fails. Permalink 2020-06-16 12:04:39+00:00

@nntaleb 1- Population was much much smaller than today (still small) 2- Gov was small, represented at the time <10% of GDP Permalink 2020-06-16 11:57:28+00:00

@nntaleb The homunculus theory prevailed for a long time by people who wanted human to have a centralized brain. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:43:52+00:00

@nntaleb The other problem is that WE humans are fragile by design and rely on reproduction/evolution for guidance under uncertainty. WE individuals are not a society. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:24:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes that’s my point: subsidiarity. Bottom up does not mean everything is at the bottom. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:22:52+00:00

@nntaleb Saying “a lot of things are centralized” means there is no single command/control center. The point is that there is no central genetic code interpretation. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:22:02+00:00

@nntaleb An ant colony is a case in point: there is NO command and control function. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:16:51+00:00

@nntaleb + Nothing in your body is centralized. + Localism means subsidiarity NOT breaking apart everything into small pieces. Please answer if you disagree. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:16:00+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-06-16 11:14:14+00:00

@nntaleb Do you agree with the following? + Centralization DOES produce fat tails. + Circuit breakers DO stabilize systems. + Nothing in natural systems is centralized. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:12:24+00:00

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, someone communicating with HIS investors is not MARKETING. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-06-16 11:01:09+00:00

@nntaleb The idiot thinks that it is the funds not the journalists that write the headlines, a theory promoted by the uber-charlatan Lopez de Prado. Permalink 2020-06-16 10:57:30+00:00

@nntaleb No, it is only moral anachronism if it did THEN conflict with the moral of its day. Permalink 2020-06-16 10:47:37+00:00

@nntaleb This is unrigorous, nonsense Permalink 2020-06-16 02:32:04+00:00

@nntaleb Fed up w/lumping of beliefs: If you hate deficits, you must hate masks If you like bitcoin, COVID’s fatality rate must be low If you hate taxes, HQC has potential but geronticide is OK If IQ testing is a fraud, then moral anachronism/removing statues I am fed up w all of you. Permalink 2020-06-16 02:28:03+00:00

@nntaleb I had frothy coffee Permalink 2020-06-16 01:23:02+00:00

@nntaleb Ma preference etait pour l’immortalité. Mais bon… Permalink 2020-06-15 21:45:46+00:00

@nntaleb 3attari2 Permalink 2020-06-15 21:41:35+00:00

@nntaleb It took 5 weeks to get here from France… The complete works (The Czech was translated by Kundera). Now the question: where to start. Most of Kundera’s books are hypnotic. This is literature. Permalink 2020-06-15 21:40:42+00:00

@nntaleb No, bullshitter. And you claim to be an academic? Permalink 2020-06-15 18:31:09+00:00

@nntaleb Isn’t this called socialism? Permalink 2020-06-15 18:04:47+00:00

@nntaleb They were tests. Permalink 2020-06-15 16:33:43+00:00

@nntaleb “Show me the man and I will find you the crime”. When you have potential enemies, AND you are not free (like Carlos Ghosn), be paranoid. Permalink 2020-06-15 14:52:26+00:00

@nntaleb Tarjamé 3al tari2 Permalink 2020-06-15 14:41:50+00:00

@nntaleb The other problem people don’t get is that acting EARLY saves $$$and the economy. We proved it Jan 26. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:56:25+00:00

@nntaleb You seem to believe that the disease does not carry economic costs. This is a false dichotomy. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:32:49+00:00

@nntaleb People who apologize publicly are not sorry for having done something wrong. They are mostly sorry for having being caught. Never apologize publicly. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:26:04+00:00

@nntaleb This is not a good analogy. Sweden had not much difference in economic costs from Norway, with 11 times deaths per capita. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:15:32+00:00

@nntaleb A remarkable elegance of reasoning and expression, particularly in his summary: “La ta7dif bi ma la ta3rif” Basically, don’t be fooled by randomness. Permalink 2020-06-15 13:05:02+00:00

@nntaleb You are conflating costs of the pandemic AND costs of dealing with the pandemic. It is the pandemic that has economics costs! Permalink 2020-06-15 12:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb This is even more interesting: he who finds a coincidence: “kalam bghayr 3ilm” Permalink 2020-06-15 12:43:48+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Interesting :القَبَس: الشُّعْلة من النار. => derive strength from. Permalink 2020-06-15 12:34:39+00:00

@nntaleb How can someone be as clueless as you yet operate as postdoc? Do they have some type of reading comprehension tests? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:19:59+00:00

@nntaleb And would you translate the Hadith: “saving one’s people from astrology is saving them from sorcery”? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:18:16+00:00

@nntaleb Kazzibu is “distrust” or trear like a liar, no? Permalink 2020-06-15 12:11:21+00:00

@nntaleb Leggere e molto facile. Parlare e facile, ma non troppo. Scrivere bene (con precisione) e troppo difficile. Permalink 2020-06-15 11:54:20+00:00

@nntaleb Yes it is not Hadith (hence (~) above) but a potent aphorism that effectively translates the accepted Hadith (below it). “Predictions are false even when true” “Predictions are either coincidental or false” كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا كذب المنجمون ولو صدفوا Permalink 2020-06-15 11:46:21+00:00

@nntaleb I blocked this incoherent sub-imbecile SignorErnesto. It is like talking to a drunk parrot. Permalink 2020-06-15 11:35:55+00:00

@nntaleb Imparare dai migliori Permalink 2020-06-15 11:01:53+00:00

@nntaleb Mai troppo! Permalink 2020-06-15 10:59:19+00:00

@nntaleb la prima tazza del giorno. Permalink 2020-06-15 10:48:11+00:00

@nntaleb He summarizes the discussion Permalink 2020-06-15 10:26:17+00:00

@nntaleb Exactly. It’s a citation ring. Permalink 2020-06-15 01:31:40+00:00

@nntaleb Blocked him Sweden had yuuuge self-quarantines yet has 11 times the death rate of Norway. Nothing to do with tails. Permalink 2020-06-15 01:31:10+00:00

@nntaleb I was diplomatic! Permalink 2020-06-15 01:19:27+00:00

@nntaleb A more usual form would be: أريد أن أراه بعيني Permalink 2020-06-15 00:28:08+00:00

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots are locked in a permanent state, i.e. remain “evidence based” idiots no matter what events bring, or what reasoning is supplied to them. Working with @yaneerbaryam on the “evidence based” BS. cc:@BallouxFrancois Permalink 2020-06-15 00:19:53+00:00

@nntaleb Smells of Google Translate. You should make some mistakes, cher ami. Permalink 2020-06-15 00:07:25+00:00

@nntaleb Arabic 2 different meanings مسخره مسحره One means a joke, the other means related to magic. Permalink 2020-06-14 23:40:52+00:00

@nntaleb William, time to block the idiot. I had him on mute. Permalink 2020-06-14 23:24:08+00:00

@nntaleb NonGabish Did you need astrological clearance from the Sanhedrin for the RSHOT? Permalink 2020-06-14 21:49:39+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, it has been attributed to many many people including the infamous Fouché. Permalink 2020-06-14 21:06:09+00:00

@nntaleb It is universally accepted that the Hadith is: من اقتبس شعبة من النجوم فقد اقتبس شعبة من السحر زاد ما زاد which conveys the same meaning. Permalink 2020-06-14 20:47:17+00:00

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-06-14 20:33:17+00:00

@nntaleb The Bible Code redux Permalink 2020-06-14 20:29:27+00:00

@nntaleb Yes it is contested hence the (~). But the hadith version below is the correct one. Permalink 2020-06-14 20:19:26+00:00

@nntaleb THEOLOGICAL QUESTION Looking for TALMUDIC version: Waged a war on forecasting (vs building things error proof/convex, not #Fragile) There is a (~) Hadith كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا* (distrust astrologers even when correct) *من اقتبس شعبة من النجوم فقد اقتبس شعبة من السحر زاد ما زاد Permalink 2020-06-14 20:12:54+00:00

@nntaleb For those who don’t get why I used “Masquerade”: it comes from “mask”. Permalink 2020-06-14 19:59:50+00:00

@nntaleb Si, erre moscia. Permalink 2020-06-14 19:25:15+00:00

@nntaleb On single point forecasts for fat tailed variables [Debate with Ioannidis] Permalink 2020-06-14 19:23:07+00:00

@nntaleb Yes in Milan they have the “ladgha” Permalink 2020-06-14 19:22:34+00:00

@nntaleb The accent is iiiiiiiiiiiitalian as hell. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:55:58+00:00

@nntaleb Yes but sloooooooooooooow convergence Permalink 2020-06-14 17:52:54+00:00

@nntaleb Will contact you once I get there and I get my shipment. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:51:31+00:00

@nntaleb “Impossible n’est pas francais” (translation: impossible is not a word) Permalink 2020-06-14 17:09:22+00:00

@nntaleb Greek included Rum like me from the Millet classification. Many were Rums. Permalink 2020-06-14 17:08:28+00:00

@nntaleb I will be in NY next week. Come get your copy. Where are you? Permalink 2020-06-14 17:07:03+00:00

@nntaleb Toi aussi tu parles francais? Permalink 2020-06-14 17:04:27+00:00

@nntaleb Donc pas d’ancetres Mendes? Permalink 2020-06-14 16:59:35+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I went to my textbook and was relieved to see I was careful to define convexity and what I used here as “convexity argument” i.e. benefits from dispersion. Some people call that “Jensen gap”. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:50:14+00:00

@nntaleb Tu parles francais, Ugo? Permalink 2020-06-14 16:45:01+00:00

@nntaleb Just hit my own record too. Caffe pomeridiano, con un bicchiere di aqua fredda e un po di cioccolato nero amaro. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:41:06+00:00

@nntaleb The debate with Ioannidis has just started. Permalink 2020-06-14 16:22:15+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile you didn’t get it. Permalink 2020-06-14 15:03:18+00:00

@nntaleb Please do not be offended but I block people for idiotic comments. I am really sorry. Permalink 2020-06-14 14:01:05+00:00

@nntaleb Not as good as yesterday but still good! Trick: use the spoon to nudge the valve! Permalink 2020-06-14 13:55:53+00:00

@nntaleb You bet Permalink 2020-06-14 13:16:23+00:00

@nntaleb With oil prices under $45, people in the Levant start to self-identify as Eastern Mediterraneans. With oil prices below $22, they self-identifiy as Mediterraneans. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:44:07+00:00

@nntaleb I wear masks inside and visors outside in parks and ventilated areas. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:39:45+00:00

@nntaleb Actually it is even < than p^2 because the conditional p for the noninfected person is even lower. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:34:54+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an idiot. Drinking alcohol brings no systemic risk. Permalink 2020-06-14 12:31:21+00:00

@nntaleb I just published The Masks Masquerade Permalink 2020-06-14 12:18:27+00:00

@nntaleb Je ne comprend pas. Permalink 2020-06-14 10:19:51+00:00

@nntaleb It is late in Napoli! Permalink 2020-06-14 00:46:36+00:00

@nntaleb We can create a symposium on life expectancy that is memoriless where death are 100% due to accident/malfunctioning not senility. This seems to be close to the case with sharks/turtles. 400y or 120 y is not too different. Permalink 2020-06-14 00:12:01+00:00

@nntaleb Exists neither in the North nor in Beirut nor in Kesserwan. Nor on TV. Nor in Northern Syria. So must be in some area I have never visited. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:36:31+00:00

@nntaleb Never heard these. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:29:02+00:00

@nntaleb OK, replace for now with “gains from dispersion” or “gains from JE”, and see if that so-called “abuse of language” makes sense. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:28:18+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks. This is just starting. There is a bit to come. Permalink 2020-06-13 21:14:15+00:00

@nntaleb Again, fuzzy definitions. For some, regular variation class. For others anything subexponential. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:46:50+00:00

@nntaleb To discuss in Napoli. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:42:01+00:00

@nntaleb Finance; whatever benefits from jensen’s inequality. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:36:45+00:00

@nntaleb I see we are using different lingo. For me,”convex” is long dispersion. For you it is the shape of the function with respect to a parameter in an optimization thingy. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:29:33+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I am conditioning on the left side (minimum increment) =1. Permalink 2020-06-13 20:20:11+00:00

@nntaleb Variance is diff from mean, so minimal when equally spaced, no? Permalink 2020-06-13 19:58:16+00:00

@nntaleb Variance. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:44:37+00:00

@nntaleb Dear @mcs1870 is the convexity idea clear? Variance increases when you have dispersion, and minimal when equally spaced. When you think like option traders, you view everything in terms of convexity. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:36:40+00:00

@nntaleb Hormesis is a special case. A convex payoff is antifragile but not hormetic. Permalink 2020-06-13 19:28:38+00:00

@nntaleb Voila @joe_shipman Permalink 2020-06-13 18:54:50+00:00

@nntaleb How I explain it Permalink 2020-06-13 18:53:46+00:00

@nntaleb Ciao Carlo. Shipman @joe_shipman and @m_j_wiener solved it very simply showing that the minimum of the ratio lhs/rhs is reached for equal gaps. I will post when I come back, both simple and more complicated routes. Permalink 2020-06-13 18:26:22+00:00

@nntaleb Ho visto il film ieri. Molto divertente. Permalink 2020-06-13 17:15:14+00:00

@nntaleb (typo, was square). We can actually end up with tighter bounds. Permalink 2020-06-13 15:29:34+00:00

@nntaleb Oui! Permalink 2020-06-13 15:28:58+00:00

@nntaleb I agree. But you need to link/show the min is reached when separation is minimum on rhs, and max of min on lfs. Permalink 2020-06-13 15:16:03+00:00

@nntaleb Hint: we have the maximum of the minimum distance between points in relation to the variance. Other hint. Best route: use convexity of the right hand side. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:52:51+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-13 14:49:28+00:00

@nntaleb He is. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:10:26+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo. Permalink 2020-06-13 14:08:14+00:00

@nntaleb There is a chance this may be entertaining. [Note: I apologize but authors of non-math related comments will be blocked.] Permalink 2020-06-13 13:56:35+00:00

@nntaleb It’s a type I process (variations are from Mediocristan). To use it to justify direct genetic modification is clueless. Permalink 2020-06-13 13:43:31+00:00

@nntaleb Hence the Homsi joke: “Iza 7zeret kam fi 7abbé bi Idé b3tik yéhon tnaynaton”. Permalink 2020-06-13 12:51:28+00:00

@nntaleb Beiruti uses idein, never dayyet. Must be a mountain thing (common in Zahlé) Permalink 2020-06-13 12:49:08+00:00

@nntaleb OK, looking at things that are > dual: Byout, wled, 3arabiyyet, as7ab, etc. are always plural (byoutak, wledak…) regardless if n=2 or >2 Permalink 2020-06-13 12:45:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Wonder about Safaitic (@Safaitic) cc:@HsenAndil @PhDniX Permalink 2020-06-13 12:41:51+00:00

@nntaleb Plural (baydat) Permalink 2020-06-13 12:40:27+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY PUZZLE DUJOUR Hebrew, Phoenician, Akkadian,& Arabic have dual, not Aramaic-Syriac Hebr/Phncian focus on body parts (2 eyes, legs, etc.), dual atrophies elsewhere, but Lebanese has dual ONLY OUTSIDE body parts: Ideik, 3yunak, shféfék, ejreik are pl. Friends, any idea? Permalink 2020-06-13 12:32:13+00:00

@nntaleb These languages (like Akkadian and Heb) focus on body parts, and have tended to atrophy outside. Ironically we only use it outside body parts: 3yunik not 3ayntaynik, shféfék, not shftaynik, ejreik not ejrtaynak. Worth a PHILO PUZZLE du jour Permalink 2020-06-13 12:17:05+00:00

@nntaleb The Lebanese don’t often use dual: ideik, ejreik, etc. are plural not dual. “irfa3 yadaik => shil idék”. Permalink 2020-06-13 12:06:37+00:00

@nntaleb I would settle for squid ink Permalink 2020-06-13 12:02:25+00:00

@nntaleb Actually in Heb Egypt is Mitzraim, meaning “the two Misr”, because they have 2 kingdoms. Phoenician had dual. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb Today is a good day. Un buon auspicio. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:25:33+00:00

@nntaleb Because you are private I cannot retweet. Permalink 2020-06-13 11:05:45+00:00

@nntaleb 1 month with 2 days STD Permalink 2020-06-13 07:44:39+00:00

@nntaleb You are good. Very good. Permalink 2020-06-13 01:21:21+00:00

@nntaleb Hihi. Only 1 length. Ciao. Permalink 2020-06-13 01:17:39+00:00

@nntaleb Grazie! Permalink 2020-06-12 22:05:00+00:00

@nntaleb Yes I want to formalize! Permalink 2020-06-12 17:56:35+00:00

@nntaleb Masks change the ranking Permalink 2020-06-12 17:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb My first answer when a someone (particularly a journalist) tries to play rhetorical tricks/compound questions around a statistical/technical point they do not understand is: IGNORE. When they keep going, my second answer: Permalink 2020-06-12 17:27:58+00:00

@nntaleb #localism Permalink 2020-06-12 16:37:44+00:00

@nntaleb Facile: le plus elegant, digne, et bien dans sa peau. Permalink 2020-06-12 16:30:29+00:00

@nntaleb Je cherche mon arriere grand-pere. Permalink 2020-06-12 15:33:56+00:00

@nntaleb Superdeadlifts! Permalink 2020-06-12 15:08:33+00:00

@nntaleb straps? Permalink 2020-06-12 15:06:50+00:00

@nntaleb Hitchens, fuckoff. Permalink 2020-06-12 14:57:52+00:00

@nntaleb Chebychev’s inequality: for all r.v. with finite second moment: P(X> a)< V[x]/a^2 Permalink 2020-06-12 14:23:11+00:00

@nntaleb Relax: he’s not apparently a shill, just a troll I blocked. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:59:48+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-12 13:50:46+00:00

@nntaleb This fellow is getting it. My paper is unpublished and the exact result is absent from the literature. But social media is verifying my central result. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:49:21+00:00

@nntaleb This is a FIRST ROUND. Both Ioannidis and myself wrote blind comments. I will know what he wrote along with the rest of the world. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:38:44+00:00

@nntaleb You will find out. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:34:09+00:00

@nntaleb The scientific debate with John Ioannidis will be posted this weekend. Permalink 2020-06-12 13:32:12+00:00

@nntaleb 2) As a general rule: entropy based methods are much more adapted to information *by design*. Unlike with correlation & other BS, what you see with your naked eye will map to the metric! PS- Most geneticists use metrics they have NO clue about. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:33:32+00:00

@nntaleb PCA maps distort genetic distance betw populations: they separate Greeks from Turks (magnifying endogamy) & are exploited politically by rightwing nuts & EuroSupremacists Yet it’s IMPOSSIBLE to figure out Greek from W Turk w/the naked eye Our correction: shows them much closer Permalink 2020-06-12 12:27:37+00:00

@nntaleb Bureaucrats can’t get it in their head that masks & constraining superspreader locations are a much much cheaper, less disruptive, & more effective way to solve the problem. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:06:01+00:00

@nntaleb Bi Amioun, Feta mush 7allumé ma3 l battikh. Byez3alo l 3alam. Permalink 2020-06-12 12:01:56+00:00

@nntaleb Came FROM the book. FU money was not common before, only on Wall St. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:59:37+00:00

@nntaleb I am Byzantine. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:55:33+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t want to give out all your secrets! Permalink 2020-06-12 11:34:33+00:00

@nntaleb My 5 max rep drops after 2 months of cessation, but not the 1 max. Permalink 2020-06-12 11:27:44+00:00

@nntaleb La Llave Permalink 2020-06-12 11:20:41+00:00

@nntaleb You mean having a resentful halfwit accusing you of cherrypicking? Permalink 2020-06-12 11:18:52+00:00

@nntaleb Oggi Questa matina Permalink 2020-06-12 11:02:48+00:00

@nntaleb Why this drop in DL? Permalink 2020-06-12 02:04:19+00:00

@nntaleb Troppo intelettuale, no? Permalink 2020-06-12 00:47:27+00:00

@nntaleb F u money does not exist. Most people turn money obsessed once they have it. Permalink 2020-06-12 00:45:08+00:00

@nntaleb A non-intellecktshual movie in Italian Permalink 2020-06-12 00:30:12+00:00

@nntaleb Amici, sto cercando un altro film italiano divertente (per migliorare il mio italiano). Voglio qualcosa di divertente, non intellettuale. Permalink 2020-06-11 23:33:28+00:00

@nntaleb This is really 0, below 10^-6. Works for Gaussian. I ran billions for Fat Tails and did numerical integration. Permalink 2020-06-11 23:27:24+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-11 22:32:07+00:00

@nntaleb G, ask Ugo Permalink 2020-06-11 19:41:28+00:00

@nntaleb Final! Thanks for the help. Never use single point estimates for pandemics. [On fortune cookie science] Permalink 2020-06-11 19:34:25+00:00

@nntaleb Arabs had huge respect for the Rum (Greco-Romans, Romaics), solid but mild respect for the Fars (Pars Persians), denigration for the “Franj” and people to the South of them. Permalink 2020-06-11 18:32:48+00:00

@nntaleb Ana 12 lb. La7 yfta7 Spadaro Permalink 2020-06-11 18:26:20+00:00

@nntaleb The comparison is between thintails & fattails Permalink 2020-06-11 17:55:02+00:00

@nntaleb TRUE WEALTH Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Muscle strength Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Good digestive functions No meeting rooms Periodic surprises Foamy coffee Crusty bread Ability to nap Access to a hammock Permalink 2020-06-11 17:50:23+00:00

@nntaleb This is common in both Arabic & Latin literature. Permalink 2020-06-11 17:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb Possible but only for some parameters. Permalink 2020-06-11 16:59:08+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an idiot Permalink 2020-06-11 16:54:15+00:00

@nntaleb “White” is not a genetic designation so much as it is about rank, power & connects to purity: white + somethingelse = somethingelse. Never chromocategorize. Permalink 2020-06-11 16:06:49+00:00

@nntaleb The World Through a Magnifying Glass: The High-Pass Filter Hypothesis for Autism Spectrum Disorders Permalink 2020-06-11 15:54:55+00:00

@nntaleb The one on context Permalink 2020-06-11 15:51:40+00:00

@nntaleb Just bought your book Permalink 2020-06-11 15:41:44+00:00

@nntaleb Getting better at it Permalink 2020-06-11 14:49:11+00:00

@nntaleb Never use single point estimates for pandemics. [On fortune cookie science] (Corrected) Permalink 2020-06-11 14:47:02+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, please comment/help find mistakes Never use single point estimates for pandemics. https://youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&t=1s Permalink 2020-06-11 14:33:22+00:00

@nntaleb Tutti. 8 ½, Satiricon, Roma, Amarcord… Permalink 2020-06-11 10:23:29+00:00

@nntaleb Steroids Permalink 2020-06-11 01:51:45+00:00

@nntaleb Glad someone figured out all the tricks from the book. Permalink 2020-06-10 22:32:47+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-10 21:59:35+00:00

@nntaleb He turned 65 Permalink 2020-06-10 21:57:04+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks @zeynep for fighting for masks.👆 Permalink 2020-06-10 20:35:10+00:00

@nntaleb Solo in italiano Permalink 2020-06-10 18:19:32+00:00

@nntaleb LETTERATURA “DEL GIORNO” – Perché non scrivi più libri? – Sono uscito troppo spesso la sera. Roma ti fa perdere molto tempo. [La ragione per cui io vivo in periferia o in campagna] Permalink 2020-06-10 17:37:01+00:00

@nntaleb This said, we NEED to work on a local language stripped of Nahda influences, and reestablish our deep Mediterranean culture –we are the most Easterners of the West, the most Westerners of the East. But let’s stay scholarly in the invocation of historical facts. Permalink 2020-06-10 17:12:31+00:00

@nntaleb Actually, incorrect. The widespread use of Arabic fus7a in place of local dialects came with that “nahda” and the Maronite church was part of the process. 2: Syriac theology was introdiced by anti-Greek Nestorians during the Sassanian invasion. Fact: it is E. Aramaic not W. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:44:26+00:00

@nntaleb We learned from you. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:22:27+00:00

@nntaleb Not the point. Without scholarship, rigor & critical mind one cannot have a historical discussion. Once a person violates that they cease to exist for me as debaters. When it comes to scholarly matters I have high standards and I am free to be that way. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:21:50+00:00

@nntaleb It is a false generalization to claim that because dentists are experts, THEREFORE macroeconomists must be experts. We have been fighting charlatans since the dawn of civilization. Permalink 2020-06-10 16:14:43+00:00

@nntaleb No no no. We in the West are more authentic. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:26:08+00:00

@nntaleb 3) The Mamelouks spoke either a Turkic language or from the Caucasus (Georgian) for recruits. You are very very ignorant. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:25:29+00:00

@nntaleb You really know absolutely NO history. 1) Aramaic came as lingua franca to the Levant WITH THE SWORD when the Persians used it as state language. It is not native to Canaan. 2) Occupation does not necessarily come with a language. The Romans brought Greek for instance. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:22:17+00:00

@nntaleb The common enemy of all East Med brothers and sisters is ketchup on grape leaves. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:08:18+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks Marko! Permalink 2020-06-10 15:05:15+00:00

@nntaleb This is historical meandering. Arabic did not come with the sword, it was a later influence. And I see no reason why one foreign language should be more adapted to a Phoenician past than another. Permalink 2020-06-10 15:04:40+00:00

@nntaleb Cycling, skying Permalink 2020-06-10 14:46:48+00:00

@nntaleb These ARE superspreaders Permalink 2020-06-10 14:22:28+00:00

@nntaleb Before weightlifting Permalink 2020-06-10 14:20:59+00:00

@nntaleb Good point. Syriac is Eastern Aramaic, a lithurgical language. If anything it would be a mixture of Galilean Aramaic (Ma3lula) with old Canaanite substrates. Permalink 2020-06-10 14:09:31+00:00

@nntaleb WEAR A MASK The Salon results. Tutorial answer. Permalink 2020-06-10 13:54:13+00:00

@nntaleb Ignoring cross contagion, assuming one single exposure by client to single source (stylist) Permalink 2020-06-10 13:42:52+00:00

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (Masks) Permalink 2020-06-10 11:33:57+00:00

@nntaleb This is NOT a data point. It is a huge statistical signal. Wear masks. And require that others do so. Permalink 2020-06-10 01:31:27+00:00

@nntaleb This is NOT a data point. It is a huge statistical signal. Permalink 2020-06-10 01:28:33+00:00

@nntaleb L’ histoire d’Alexandrie n’a RIEN A VOIR avec le sujet des savafides. Je bloque les intrusions d’habitude. Permalink 2020-06-10 00:08:09+00:00

@nntaleb I hide hors sujet posts Permalink 2020-06-09 23:26:43+00:00

@nntaleb C’est hors-sujet. Permalink 2020-06-09 23:26:04+00:00

@nntaleb What does this have anything to do with anything? Permalink 2020-06-09 23:20:32+00:00

@nntaleb cc:@Mehdi_IR_DC Permalink 2020-06-09 21:03:46+00:00

@nntaleb To make things more complicated, Shah Ismail was the great-grandson of Emperor Alexios IV Komnenos. cc:@DrMichaelBonner Permalink 2020-06-09 20:43:17+00:00

@nntaleb Must be convex if close to minimum dose. Permalink 2020-06-09 20:30:27+00:00

@nntaleb Mnil dikken bi ATL Permalink 2020-06-09 20:29:35+00:00

@nntaleb Real science does not look scientific, surgeons can look more like butchers than actors playing surgeons, literature doesn’t look literary, projects don’t look like business plans, psychs are impostors & mathematics is precisely abt going to the simplest representation. Permalink 2020-06-09 20:28:50+00:00

@nntaleb B basal Permalink 2020-06-09 19:40:54+00:00

@nntaleb Precaution. Additional. Permalink 2020-06-09 19:37:45+00:00

@nntaleb Mexico? Permalink 2020-06-09 19:34:38+00:00

@nntaleb Btkabbar amma shhm Permalink 2020-06-09 19:16:44+00:00

@nntaleb Just tried. Perfect! Permalink 2020-06-09 19:15:08+00:00

@nntaleb Increased or decreased? Permalink 2020-06-09 18:42:15+00:00

@nntaleb How much more caffeine than a simple expresso? Permalink 2020-06-09 15:42:11+00:00

@nntaleb None but 2 plane rides Permalink 2020-06-09 13:45:24+00:00

@nntaleb Being tested for COVID today. If clear, will partake. Permalink 2020-06-09 12:25:39+00:00

@nntaleb Me too Permalink 2020-06-09 12:07:26+00:00

@nntaleb David figured out what economists did not: all metrics linked to a fat-tailed variable (say variance) will me MUCH MORE fat tailed. Permalink 2020-06-08 23:52:32+00:00

@nntaleb 1)You need to add the fats, 8 calories per gram. No meat is 100% fat free. 2) Water noise + digestive variation in the body may drown the signal. 1½ lbs a daily noise for 1 lb a week deficit! Wait > 10 days. Permalink 2020-06-08 19:00:53+00:00

@nntaleb Actually Most powerful Permalink 2020-06-08 14:56:01+00:00

@nntaleb Helps a lot. But depends on psalm. Psalm 104 has “gadalta meod” meaning G(Lord) is greatest (sounds familiar no?) works best. Permalink 2020-06-08 14:48:49+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-08 14:24:58+00:00

@nntaleb More coffee is better? More water? Permalink 2020-06-08 13:08:03+00:00

@nntaleb The very notion of “probability neglect” was shown to be BS in a paper made a chapter in my book (free PDF). Psychologists have NO CLUE about fat tails. https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/1544508050 Permalink 2020-06-08 11:56:40+00:00

@nntaleb Ugo, a problemo questa matina. When the coffee can is fresh, it foams. A few days later it stops foaming. Is it normal or maybe something else? Permalink 2020-06-08 11:54:11+00:00

@nntaleb Actually this is the best time for both us and NZ. Your evening. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:18:22+00:00

@nntaleb Matt, you must talk to Zack. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:08:52+00:00

@nntaleb Simon, Meds are good at blocking idiots. Permalink 2020-06-08 02:06:31+00:00

@nntaleb I know I followed him and am very impressed. Permalink 2020-06-08 01:22:55+00:00

@nntaleb Are you Persian? Azeri? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:35:20+00:00

@nntaleb The only person on @Delta who had no masks was a flight attendant on ATL-CMH DL 3014 on June 6, 2020. Return was OK. @Delta can you explain why you do not enforce the rule on your own staff? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:23:09+00:00

@nntaleb Do you enforce mandatory masks? Permalink 2020-06-08 00:18:05+00:00

@nntaleb I flew Delta today. Much more professional. Permalink 2020-06-08 00:12:00+00:00

@nntaleb No, Paphos in Cyprus. Permalink 2020-06-07 23:51:24+00:00

@nntaleb Kif mbayyan wara l mask? Permalink 2020-06-07 23:50:45+00:00

@nntaleb (They were liking our comments) Permalink 2020-06-07 23:05:55+00:00

@nntaleb Looks like @Yachting_Greece may help us… Can you do Paphos-Mykonos? How long does it take? Permalink 2020-06-07 23:05:36+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-07 22:28:49+00:00

@nntaleb The Med is wayyyyy too small for us. Doing Athens-Mykonos in July because I don’t want to fly. Otherwise in Leb most of July. Permalink 2020-06-07 22:26:23+00:00

@nntaleb Tarapia tapioco come se fosse antani. Permalink 2020-06-07 21:13:26+00:00

@nntaleb Same, Beirut, Athens, then ferry. Permalink 2020-06-07 21:09:51+00:00

@nntaleb La versione in italiano … e originale? voicevover? Permalink 2020-06-07 20:55:21+00:00

@nntaleb Fabrizio flaneur ha suggerito nel 2016 Permalink 2020-06-07 20:48:37+00:00

@nntaleb No, e stato sorpreso Permalink 2020-06-07 20:48:02+00:00

@nntaleb Si, Fabrizio! Permalink 2020-06-07 20:45:28+00:00

@nntaleb Supercazzola in inglese: Permalink 2020-06-07 20:38:50+00:00

@nntaleb To Europe? From NY? If so, Me too we should study airlines protocols/density. Permalink 2020-06-07 20:25:48+00:00

@nntaleb Oxygen is sooo overrated. Permalink 2020-06-07 20:21:32+00:00

@nntaleb You are missing the convexity of probability to viral exposure. Permalink 2020-06-07 19:59:45+00:00

@nntaleb Where you going? Permalink 2020-06-07 19:47:51+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, higher order effects fall off at p^2n Permalink 2020-06-07 19:00:18+00:00

@nntaleb R0 ahd include the wffect that every incremental interaction has a lower infection rate because others might have infected them, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:59:01+00:00

@nntaleb Then R0 –>number of people you encounter Permalink 2020-06-07 18:22:25+00:00

@nntaleb Great! If we were in the concave zone then R0 would be astronomical, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:21:39+00:00

@nntaleb Already in the R0, no? Permalink 2020-06-07 18:17:18+00:00

@nntaleb Must be convex. Permalink 2020-06-07 18:07:22+00:00

@nntaleb (plane is almost empty, so 2 surgical) Permalink 2020-06-07 18:06:27+00:00

@nntaleb You don’t need to know what it is. Permalink 2020-06-07 18:05:20+00:00

@nntaleb On Planes: I wear 2 masks plus goggles (plus N95 when there is a crowd). [Now] Permalink 2020-06-07 18:02:17+00:00

@nntaleb That would make the drop even better because it becomes p p_1, p_1

Permalink 2020-06-07 17:54:27+00:00

@nntaleb Inté l malfonito Permalink 2020-06-07 17:52:11+00:00

@nntaleb Does not change the story because they are both <=1. Please think before tweeting. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:49:53+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, can someone check my logic Re: Masks? Any error? If so Masks could SOLVE the pandemic. I have been saying Masks are NECESSARY since Feb, didn’t realize they could be SUFFICIENT! Permalink 2020-06-07 17:47:28+00:00

@nntaleb In fact not even secular. Locals decide. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:25:37+00:00

@nntaleb All across fractally. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:16:07+00:00

@nntaleb Most likely same culture all across Canaan. Ignore political matters, this is the historian’s error. Permalink 2020-06-07 17:15:42+00:00

@nntaleb Mnil Trké, @Marcellenassif ? Permalink 2020-06-07 16:58:15+00:00

@nntaleb No nation has uniformity. Except for its elites. Permalink 2020-06-07 16:52:56+00:00

@nntaleb Decentralized secular Permalink 2020-06-07 16:40:35+00:00

@nntaleb Which #RWRI did you attend, Jack? Permalink 2020-06-07 14:53:36+00:00

@nntaleb Again, we mistook the lower bound for the total effect. This is just starting; we don’t know the track record. Permalink 2020-06-07 14:37:29+00:00

@nntaleb Slippers are no no no. I even get my shoes shined before my Zoom lectures. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:52:12+00:00

@nntaleb 6- SUMMARY: @Safaitic is looking inscriptions in various scripts to replicate period pronunciation, & grammar rather than literary sources. Busts the theory that local Semitic dialects descend from “Classical Arabic”, fabricated later by scholars. NEXT: Do same for Aramaic. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:48:44+00:00

@nntaleb His Gadness and I think alike in numerous things. Permalink 2020-06-07 13:37:45+00:00

@nntaleb No no no no! Permalink 2020-06-07 13:37:00+00:00

@nntaleb SOUL IN THE GAME In Visconti’s movies, when a box was meant to have diamonds, he made sure to put real ones, even when the box remained openened. Never lecture/meet on Zoom unless you dress top to bottom as in real life. And avoid fortune cookie science. #AntiBSVending Permalink 2020-06-07 13:09:28+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of BS in linguistics, as @Safaitic showed and discussed, especially in classifications. Permalink 2020-06-07 11:43:03+00:00

@nntaleb In Kura we pronounce mwayy, in Beirut mayy Permalink 2020-06-07 11:23:52+00:00

@nntaleb Mushroombrain, masks have no side effects (we’ve been using them for millennia). Permalink 2020-06-07 10:45:21+00:00

@nntaleb Las Vegas is a superspreader hub: crowds redistribute germs across the country, with maximal efficiency. Crowds in less connected cities keep germs largely local. Permalink 2020-06-07 03:12:00+00:00

@nntaleb Quel ramdam Permalink 2020-06-07 01:18:49+00:00

@nntaleb Oui, plus qu’un chouaia. Permalink 2020-06-07 00:25:31+00:00

@nntaleb Made @Decafquest sorry he did not fly from Beirut for his interview. You see how much I flew for 2 minutes? 300 miles per minute. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:42:59+00:00

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean “not a new notion”? I block idiots. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:38:50+00:00

@nntaleb The PDF https://www.academia.edu/43189829/Al-Jallad._2020._The_Damascus_Psalm_Fragment_Middle_Arabic_and_the_Legacy_of_Old_Ḥigāzī_w._a_contribution_by_R._Vollandt And the hard copy https://www.isdistribution.com/BookDetail.aspx?aId=140594 Permalink 2020-06-06 23:38:03+00:00

@nntaleb As a kid Permalink 2020-06-06 23:26:21+00:00

@nntaleb We are talking about ONE DOMAIN, $$$or professional, not individual safety. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:24:08+00:00

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM ON SAFAITIC, 5 My conversation with Maestro Al-Jallad. I didn’t use no Zoom & #skininthegame paid proper respect by going 631 miles to meet him for a walk in the forest. Permalink 2020-06-06 23:21:25+00:00

@nntaleb Bingo. Hence the “stay” Permalink 2020-06-06 23:04:54+00:00

@nntaleb Just read an interview by his son… he did not like his father. That is not … Permalink 2020-06-06 22:43:06+00:00

@nntaleb Vous connaissez Joseph Balsamo? L’aventurier sicilien derriere le personnage n’est autre que Cagliostro Permalink 2020-06-06 22:37:08+00:00

@nntaleb A lot of both. Working hard will certainly make you prosperous. To be & stay a billionaire you need both skills and luck. Permalink 2020-06-06 21:43:38+00:00

@nntaleb Shukran is not Lebanese. Permalink 2020-06-06 19:43:25+00:00

@nntaleb Je ne lis plus rien en traduction– presque. Permalink 2020-06-06 19:42:41+00:00

@nntaleb Pleiade Permalink 2020-06-06 19:40:59+00:00

@nntaleb Review Amzn https://www.amazon.com/review/ROV37CI7SRQ3N/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0140449264 Permalink 2020-06-06 18:42:44+00:00

@nntaleb He should have stopped earlier. Permalink 2020-06-06 17:19:03+00:00

@nntaleb Pensano di aver “failed” Permalink 2020-06-06 17:18:21+00:00

@nntaleb Wait, wait. more versions to come. Permalink 2020-06-06 14:22:11+00:00

@nntaleb Yes that’s why he invested there. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:57:05+00:00

@nntaleb Beirut Permalink 2020-06-06 13:53:38+00:00

@nntaleb Which part of the “no matter how rich” you didn’t get? Permalink 2020-06-06 13:49:19+00:00

@nntaleb Fuck that. I write on my own terms. See references in book (referenced) Permalink 2020-06-06 13:45:31+00:00

@nntaleb It snows in Lebanon, sometimes 80% of the country is covered. Only a small strip is coastal. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:43:47+00:00

@nntaleb I a dit cela pour se donner des lettres de nobless car Celine etait considere comme litteraire. Il est de loin meilleur prosateur. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:39:36+00:00

@nntaleb would be nice if you could … follow the thread before responding Permalink 2020-06-06 13:35:42+00:00

@nntaleb No, why don’t you fuckoff? Permalink 2020-06-06 13:26:25+00:00

@nntaleb EVIDENCE BASED SCIENCE IS NOT SCIENCE Clearer version, with examples. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:24:23+00:00

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-06 13:10:53+00:00

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-06-06 13:09:38+00:00

@nntaleb Not quite. Some feel poorer. That’s my point. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:59:13+00:00

@nntaleb No, but same school. BTW de Botton was an Egyptian Jew; Alexandrian Greeks-Italians-GrecoSyrians-Jews, etc. are the most sophisticated people I have ever met. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:58:19+00:00

@nntaleb An old school European financier told me long time ago: “Those who feel they succeeded in finance write novels or talk mostly about art, culture, politics, or their hobbies; those who failed, no matter how rich, are still talking (or writing) only about finance & markets. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:54:41+00:00

@nntaleb No mushroombrain I explain that naive falsificationism is incompatible with nondeterministic (statistical) approaches but asymmetry is CENTRAL in ranking evidence and classes of distribution. See reference (my stat book) before bullshitting. Permalink 2020-06-06 12:36:03+00:00

@nntaleb From airport, first (short) flight. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:24:03+00:00

@nntaleb Voila, Adam Permalink 2020-06-06 11:23:08+00:00

@nntaleb 4- I will be meeting Maestro Al-Jallad @safaitic for a walk this PM so please supply with questions. Will also supply a synthesis. P.S. The best French prose writer and one who writes the way people REALLY spoke (“argot”) before TV destroyed the local language: Frédéric Dard. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:13:28+00:00

@nntaleb Yes error it is p^2 not 1-p^2 and R_0 severely reduced yes BECAUSE it is linear to p^2 not p. But there is the convexity of p to viral load where the gravy lies Thanks. Permalink 2020-06-06 11:07:08+00:00

@nntaleb Yes, thanks; did you see the part before in convexity of p to viral load? Permalink 2020-06-06 10:50:03+00:00

@nntaleb Ghassan in my cousin 4th degree remote. Permalink 2020-06-06 00:10:52+00:00

@nntaleb Non capish at all. Even less. Permalink 2020-06-05 21:06:27+00:00

@nntaleb How did you guess? Permalink 2020-06-05 21:05:52+00:00

@nntaleb Frankopan has culture. He knows what to look for. Permalink 2020-06-05 21:05:39+00:00

@nntaleb Replace policy with risk management/decision making. Permalink 2020-06-05 20:56:05+00:00

@nntaleb Do you have proofs it doesn’t save lives? Permalink 2020-06-05 20:21:24+00:00

@nntaleb You’re confabulating. I am not saying that. Permalink 2020-06-05 19:40:13+00:00

@nntaleb Non capish Permalink 2020-06-05 19:39:14+00:00

@nntaleb I don’t know yet @PZalloua Permalink 2020-06-05 19:24:38+00:00

@nntaleb So fucking what? Permalink 2020-06-05 19:15:45+00:00

@nntaleb You will witness that my part of Lebanon is vastly more historical, more Mediterranean, richer in history that Pierre’s, 14 miles away. Permalink 2020-06-05 19:00:13+00:00

@nntaleb Missing page Permalink 2020-06-05 18:23:17+00:00

@nntaleb EVIDENCE BASED SCIENCE IS NOT SCIENCE Paper in Progress, for comments. Permalink 2020-06-05 18:20:53+00:00

@nntaleb I learned that when you open the can, you get foam very easily. Then it stops 3-5 days later. Permalink 2020-06-05 18:18:37+00:00

@nntaleb http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/nntbio.htm Permalink 2020-06-05 18:04:07+00:00

@nntaleb Reversals of signs are not statistically important; it is the magnitude of the variations. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:24:42+00:00

@nntaleb Well known for time series. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:09:59+00:00

@nntaleb Before blocking idiots. Permalink 2020-06-05 16:08:26+00:00

@nntaleb Asynchronous correlations Permalink 2020-06-05 16:06:28+00:00

@nntaleb People may like a word –aesthetics Permalink 2020-06-05 14:39:59+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-05 14:38:00+00:00

@nntaleb hahaha! Permalink 2020-06-05 14:18:30+00:00

@nntaleb James, block idiots. Nobody has NITPICKED numbers except media. Permalink 2020-06-05 13:55:27+00:00

@nntaleb 3- He got it. Bottom up linguistics vs top down. Permalink 2020-06-05 13:03:33+00:00

@nntaleb 2- Either, in 8th C Levantine Greek (and possibly Romaic “Rum” Greek), β was pronounced “b” or Arabic ب was pronounced “v”. Unless it was a convention that switched “v” to “ف”. Permalink 2020-06-05 12:29:02+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY SYMPOSIUM AR THIS The genius of Maestro Al-Jallad @Safaitic: he gets that if Future pple want to know how today’s people speak, shd not look at academic books but FB conversations & foreign script MY Q. 1-Discovering “Rab” is lunar not solar (ελ ραβ) not ερραβ. True? Permalink 2020-06-05 12:25:42+00:00

@nntaleb All I have to say is that I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-06-05 12:14:34+00:00

@nntaleb My limit is 30 seconds but with Maestro Al Jallad different story Permalink 2020-06-05 12:10:44+00:00

@nntaleb If so, write to the firms where you want to invest discuss with them. Twitter is not the place. Permalink 2020-06-05 02:59:18+00:00

@nntaleb I am blocked by both these idiots. Permalink 2020-06-05 02:11:09+00:00

@nntaleb I assume that people share data with regulators, investors, and potential investors under mega qualification rules. Not with Twitter trolls. Gabish? Permalink 2020-06-05 02:06:24+00:00

@nntaleb You can never convince BS vendors. But you may get some entertainment getting them angry. Permalink 2020-06-05 01:40:08+00:00

@nntaleb Ma in francese… volio imperare la lingua di Dante e Berlusconi Permalink 2020-06-05 01:31:54+00:00

@nntaleb Hilarious! 2 BS vendors I’ve busted, @lopezdeprado & Phil🐁@Ptetlock (unrelated fields) became friends, joined forces &… are both losing it. Big time. They are now at the stage where they are now frantically trying to throw the kitchen sink at yours truly. https://twitter.com/Tyler_Rongione/status/1268694621741293568 Permalink 2020-06-05 01:18:59+00:00

@nntaleb Victory! Corporations cannot ALWAYS buy science. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:51:44+00:00

@nntaleb Even their account closing page is messed up. Does not respond Permalink 2020-06-04 18:48:49+00:00

@nntaleb It is not set-up for people who want to use it for transactions? Permalink 2020-06-04 18:46:46+00:00

@nntaleb Too late. Closing account. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:30:03+00:00

@nntaleb I closed the @coinbase account (opened a few months ago). Like Must, they answered me (blue check) when I complained but ignore the regular person. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:22:46+00:00

@nntaleb Do they charge for wiring from Bank? Permalink 2020-06-04 18:18:15+00:00

@nntaleb Yes my reaction was because I am switching to another provider. Permalink 2020-06-04 18:14:16+00:00

@nntaleb RWRI is 40 h Permalink 2020-06-04 18:02:34+00:00

@nntaleb I never offend His Gadness. Permalink 2020-06-04 17:56:22+00:00

@nntaleb @coinbase What is going on with you? Why don’t you respond to errors? Permalink 2020-06-04 17:50:55+00:00

@nntaleb He is exempt. Talking about the probability D/T literature. Permalink 2020-06-04 17:38:23+00:00

@nntaleb Read the book . Explains ranking Permalink 2020-06-04 16:46:54+00:00

@nntaleb More formal Permalink 2020-06-04 16:25:04+00:00

@nntaleb This is actually #RWRI Permalink 2020-06-04 14:45:19+00:00

@nntaleb tazzine Permalink 2020-06-04 14:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb Ma questa tazzina non e Lindy. In plastica non vetro. Sono a la ricerca de tassine di vetro. Permalink 2020-06-04 14:27:56+00:00

@nntaleb Bronze age Permalink 2020-06-04 14:12:16+00:00

@nntaleb Hayda l lower bound. Ana jéyé heik heik. Permalink 2020-06-04 13:44:56+00:00

@nntaleb La prossima volta non dimenticarmi. Quatordici persone ma non io? Permalink 2020-06-04 13:35:56+00:00

@nntaleb You forgot your devoted friend! Permalink 2020-06-04 13:30:45+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-06-04 13:26:36+00:00

@nntaleb No Permalink 2020-06-04 13:12:42+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, for discussion To expand with @yaneerbaryam and @DrCirillo cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 2020-06-04 13:10:40+00:00

@nntaleb Both Balkan and North Levantine cultures come from Anatolia (dress, music, dance, food even outside Med areas) Permalink 2020-06-04 13:09:37+00:00

@nntaleb Anatolia Permalink 2020-06-04 13:08:26+00:00

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-06-04 13:07:37+00:00

@nntaleb Not in printable form. All uni and technical presses ban the availability of final PDF in a way that allows the physical replication of the book. Which is why I elected to start my own publishing firm. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:53:03+00:00

@nntaleb There should be another version for that size. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:44:25+00:00

@nntaleb Unfair I lost weight since! Permalink 2020-06-04 11:43:53+00:00

@nntaleb Which discussion? With whom? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:29:05+00:00

@nntaleb Should be 6 by 9 Permalink 2020-06-04 11:28:17+00:00

@nntaleb Everything East-Med (includes S. Italy) comes originally from the triangle Zagros-Anatolia-Southern Caucasus (Georgia-Armenia-Iran-Central Anatolia). Permalink 2020-06-04 11:21:43+00:00

@nntaleb Iki-bir Permalink 2020-06-04 11:18:36+00:00

@nntaleb I guess I am one of the first authors who helps people to legally pirat their books. The US version starts to ship later this month. Permalink 2020-06-04 11:16:42+00:00

@nntaleb How much did it cost to print in BRL? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:15:02+00:00

@nntaleb Some “besh” is Turkish, no? Permalink 2020-06-04 11:08:01+00:00

@nntaleb La traduzione in inglese e ancora piu … Permalink 2020-06-04 11:06:37+00:00

@nntaleb In Amici miei? Permalink 2020-06-04 10:44:54+00:00

@nntaleb Supercazzola (scappellamento a destra) Permalink 2020-06-04 10:38:24+00:00

@nntaleb W Petro Trad Permalink 2020-06-03 22:35:18+00:00

@nntaleb Choukrane is not in Lebanese. Permalink 2020-06-03 22:12:52+00:00

@nntaleb But the fact that it has an Arabic name doesn’t contradict the other fact that there is practically no Arab ancestry in the Peninsula. Permalink 2020-06-03 20:19:17+00:00

@nntaleb Arabic, the “al” is not present in Phoenician. Permalink 2020-06-03 20:12:48+00:00

@nntaleb Silvi my ethics ban me from front running and hoarding. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:20:49+00:00

@nntaleb Bru7 knt kill shahr jm3a. Halla2 nater la yfta7o l matarat. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:20:16+00:00

@nntaleb Msh shaghlté. Ma b7bb l ejtimé3at! Permalink 2020-06-03 19:11:47+00:00

@nntaleb Great! Another mistake debunked. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:10:30+00:00

@nntaleb Ha! Natrikék! Permalink 2020-06-03 19:09:07+00:00

@nntaleb Generalizing the particular Permalink 2020-06-03 19:07:37+00:00

@nntaleb Lal 7all bil Lebnén baddkon ra2is wizara sinné immo maruniyyé marto shi3iyyé min emm armaniyyé… …Ye3né wa7ad rum ortodox. Permalink 2020-06-03 19:03:44+00:00

@nntaleb I ordered La LLave. Will see. Permalink 2020-06-03 18:54:17+00:00

@nntaleb OK, ordered @tabacco_y_rhum Permalink 2020-06-03 18:25:57+00:00

@nntaleb Friends, could this grinder work? Permalink 2020-06-03 18:16:06+00:00

@nntaleb qareb means gets closer. Permalink 2020-06-03 16:46:19+00:00

@nntaleb 3rd moment must be finite Permalink 2020-06-03 15:29:22+00:00

@nntaleb “The word” not the words. Permalink 2020-06-03 15:14:30+00:00

@nntaleb No. BE is not for fat tails Permalink 2020-06-03 15:11:25+00:00

@nntaleb Bl lebnene natra mnatra! Permalink 2020-06-03 15:04:45+00:00

@nntaleb Good job. Many “statisticians” have no clue about The Law of Large Number LLN …subject of my Technical Inverto. Some know what happens when n=1 or n= infinity, not for n= 34 or 671… Cancels much of the tools in social science. Permalink 2020-06-03 14:58:47+00:00

@nntaleb Mais avec la paix avec le Liban bien sur! Permalink 2020-06-03 13:32:32+00:00

@nntaleb Ha shana aba… Permalink 2020-06-03 13:24:30+00:00

@nntaleb bférégh l sabr Permalink 2020-06-03 12:30:20+00:00

@nntaleb Un grand honneur! Permalink 2020-06-03 12:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb Yes al gharb = “the West” Permalink 2020-06-02 22:59:23+00:00

@nntaleb Sorry missed Permalink 2020-06-02 22:54:52+00:00

@nntaleb You forgot the “if”. Permalink 2020-06-02 22:41:13+00:00

@nntaleb 8:30 am in the US? I am curious Permalink 2020-06-02 18:31:22+00:00

@nntaleb Efkharisto poly! Permalink 2020-06-02 18:18:19+00:00

@nntaleb 4) The older generation must not justify its “utility” to the younger one. They earned it. CIVILIZATION: Athenians granted old mules who worked hard a privileged and “honorable” retirement, free to roam with a pension at public expense. That’s the reverse of Geronticide. Permalink 2020-06-02 18:03:20+00:00

@nntaleb RWRI 14, Aug 10-21, online #RWRI can’t teach you to make money (nobody really can). But we can show you how to survive/not blowup. #RWRI won’t teach you probability (you don’t really need it). But we can teach you #BSbusting of Levels 0-3. #BSbusting! http://realworldrisk.com Permalink 2020-06-02 17:31:19+00:00

@nntaleb Not the point! They have earned their retirement and they are allowed to not be despoiled of their dividend. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:58:18+00:00

@nntaleb 3)Do not disrupt the Silver rule: don’t treat the older generation the way you don’t want the next generation to treat you. Civilization and group moral rectitude started with the Silver and Golden rules. Geronticide is morally repulsive; only accepted in nouveau-riche societies. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:21:28+00:00

@nntaleb 2) Societies types: one for which a life is a life, another where life is some actuarial number. Watch the ravages economics has done to modern societies: comes with scientism, pseudoutilitarianism, pseudocost-benefit analysis & … moral decay. As in Dostoyevski’s Crocodile. Permalink 2020-06-02 16:04:47+00:00

@nntaleb This is spurious. If someone kills someone else BY NEGLIGENCE, should the penalty be age dependent? It is permissible to kill the old? Permalink 2020-06-02 14:11:59+00:00

@nntaleb They statistically *would* can also apply to murder. Permalink 2020-06-02 14:10:08+00:00

@nntaleb LOGICAL INCONSISTENCY DU JOUR Someone said “if an old person dies of COVID, it’s not a big deal because they could have died of someone else”. To be consistent, you must accept: “If a someone kills an old person, it’s not a big deal because they could have died of someone else”. Permalink 2020-06-02 13:55:00+00:00

@nntaleb Turkish sofra Permalink 2020-06-02 13:04:51+00:00

@nntaleb It would be طويله not طاوله Permalink 2020-06-02 12:50:05+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile; the point is because Rabbis were ALSO doctors. Permalink 2020-06-02 12:38:53+00:00

@nntaleb Not Arabic Permalink 2020-06-02 12:32:19+00:00

@nntaleb The French colloquial uses for country “bled” from the Arabic بلد , “cleb” or “clebard” for dog from كلب, but the official language bowdlerises such influences. New DuJour’: “To whistle” in Lebanese “sawfar” is from the Byzantine Greek σφυρίζω Permalink 2020-06-02 12:18:49+00:00

@nntaleb We call this trbayzé! Permalink 2020-06-02 11:59:20+00:00

@nntaleb Trké Permalink 2020-06-02 11:53:21+00:00

@nntaleb There were no planes… But we used it for planes Permalink 2020-06-02 11:48:28+00:00

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL IRONIES DU JOUR +Spaniards use the Arabic word for table, mesa, مائدة, while Lebanese use “tawlé” from Italian tavola & Egyptians use “tarabeza” frm Greek Τραπέζι. + French (slang) use the Arabic “toubib” طبيب, when Lebanese use “hakim” linked to Hebrew “rabbi” חכם Permalink 2020-06-02 11:47:06+00:00

@nntaleb Used to say néwlun, from the Greek nevlon. Permalink 2020-06-02 11:39:32+00:00

@nntaleb Per l’ultima volta? Permalink 2020-06-02 11:35:12+00:00

@nntaleb Our paper explained on @physorg_com Permalink 2020-06-02 11:08:12+00:00

@nntaleb Racism is the use of the law of large numbers (and scaling) in the opposite direction, by attributing presumed population traits to single individuals. Permalink 2020-06-02 10:49:38+00:00

@nntaleb The fellow @octonion knows his stuff (probabilist, certified nonBSVendor). Similar to data from Northern Italia (adjusted for obesity, etc.). That is almost a lower bound as we can have fatalities from people infected 2 months ago. Permalink 2020-06-02 00:17:54+00:00

@nntaleb Lamb? Permalink 2020-06-01 22:35:58+00:00

@nntaleb SECOND PRINTING now freely available PDF Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications Permalink 2020-06-01 22:35:31+00:00

@nntaleb Any idea about the Indo-European or other origin? Permalink 2020-06-01 22:31:28+00:00

@nntaleb I am very imperfect. Permalink 2020-06-01 17:42:00+00:00

@nntaleb (A boring dispute w/academics; ignore) Thanks @HietanenPaavo for sending this. Turns out @PTetlock🐁 is lying, claiming I made a private dispute public. There was NO private dispute; he just started a public harrassment campaign (“the 🐁”). Paavo linked https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40nntaleb%20%40ptetlock%20until%3A2016-12-31%20since%3A2000-12-31&src=typed_query&f=live Permalink 2020-06-01 16:16:23+00:00

@nntaleb Shahada is the same as the Syriac “7ad Aloho” Permalink 2020-06-01 16:06:48+00:00

@nntaleb No this is the study used to discredit Raoult Permalink 2020-06-01 14:09:48+00:00

@nntaleb A reminder that 1) Science is hard, 2) Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability. Permalink 2020-06-01 14:04:34+00:00

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-06-01 13:49:25+00:00

@nntaleb Philologist friends, Is the root for מופת in anyway linked to muppistu in Akkadian? If not, what is the Semitic (or non-Semitic) root? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1265823241240825863 Permalink 2020-06-01 13:13:59+00:00

@nntaleb Wrong etymlgy. Malachite = green Permalink 2020-06-01 02:30:24+00:00

@nntaleb My full time professional specialty is squid ink. The rest are hobbies. Permalink 2020-06-01 02:24:05+00:00

@nntaleb Independence means never supporting a person, only select policies. Permalink 2020-06-01 01:16:09+00:00

@nntaleb I would have blocked this imbecile, Joan (mistook him for a scientist). But it would eliminate the discussion. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:13:07+00:00

@nntaleb I publicly said I would never vote for Trump, on CNBC. This is a smear campaign. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:06:53+00:00

@nntaleb That’s Germany. L’Italie commence a Naples. Permalink 2020-06-01 00:03:29+00:00

@nntaleb Mon ami, we were fighting with them ALL ALONG (@yaneerbaryam , @DrCirillo) because they could not handle absence of evidence which is stronger under fat tails. Permalink 2020-05-31 23:58:59+00:00

@nntaleb 130/70 Permalink 2020-05-31 22:55:07+00:00

@nntaleb Imbecile, no. Permalink 2020-05-31 22:53:14+00:00

@nntaleb He does not get that we said that EPIDEMIOLOGY is useful as a field of study but they proved unable to deal with policy recommendations when it comes to tail risk. It is like being a doctor and missing most of medicine. Permalink 2020-05-31 21:40:10+00:00

@nntaleb Un ancetre commun aux Menasce et Cattaui? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:50:50+00:00

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile: I am offering PRECISE solutions. It is just that charlatans don’t like them. https://twitter.com/GavinChait/status/1267182088396177414 Permalink 2020-05-31 20:45:04+00:00

@nntaleb René Cattaui est aussi ton ancetre? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:38:38+00:00

@nntaleb Je vais donc passer par Turin! Je serai a Milan en novembre. Permalink 2020-05-31 20:28:10+00:00

@nntaleb L’ accento e meta francese meta ebraico Permalink 2020-05-31 20:27:04+00:00

@nntaleb Hai vissuto a Roma, no? Genitori diplomatici? Permalink 2020-05-31 20:21:53+00:00

@nntaleb Tu connais l’expression! Permalink 2020-05-31 20:20:25+00:00

@nntaleb Ron, je parlais de ton grand-oncle Permalink 2020-05-31 19:54:39+00:00

@nntaleb Batroun? Permalink 2020-05-31 19:38:29+00:00

@nntaleb 2/ Things that went intellectually bankrupt over the pandemics & will hardly recover: Epidemiology Fortune cookie (positive) “evidence” base science Bureaucratic topdown structures: WHO, CDC, UK Group Rent seeking academia can no longer be financed. Universities will crumble. Permalink 2020-05-31 18:59:05+00:00

@nntaleb I mio turno Permalink 2020-05-31 18:43:58+00:00

@nntaleb How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades. Permalink 2020-05-31 18:30:45+00:00

@nntaleb Aretas is Hareth Permalink 2020-05-31 18:12:13+00:00

@nntaleb Lying down it’s always lower Permalink 2020-05-31 16:34:59+00:00

@nntaleb I will take them back; guaranteed Permalink 2020-05-31 16:34:05+00:00

@nntaleb Liguria? Permalink 2020-05-31 13:40:26+00:00

@nntaleb Benefits of Quarantine: No restaurants: no seed oil, no bad grains. + More time to bust BS Vendors, read novels. + Weight loss 12lbs, resting heart rate 49 BPM. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:32:53+00:00

@nntaleb Pope Francis : Stop the destruction of a historical and cultural site in Nahr El-Kalb, Lebanon! – Sign the Petition! http://chng.it/wyBSz2Nb via @Change Permalink 2020-05-31 13:28:59+00:00

@nntaleb It also depends on the music, as you will see. It is very sensitive. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:13:41+00:00

@nntaleb That’s how it is spelled in Atlanta, GA. Permalink 2020-05-31 13:00:27+00:00

@nntaleb Added to the book a comment on “evidence based” scientism https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-05-31 12:34:21+00:00

@nntaleb You need music in the background. Permalink 2020-05-31 12:12:40+00:00

@nntaleb Kept getting injuries from cleans. Do them with lower weights. I only get injured when I listen to advice, or watch a video. I never get injured when I follow my intuition or take tiny “nudges”. Permalink 2020-05-31 10:28:02+00:00

@nntaleb Look at the reactions to the warnings in Jan. We had a barrage of idiots many of whom deleted their tweets. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:44:48+00:00

@nntaleb Hoy! Permalink 2020-05-31 00:39:56+00:00

@nntaleb You’re an honest person, Jaffer. Argumentative, but honest. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:19:06+00:00

@nntaleb You are talking to an imbecile, Ofer. Permalink 2020-05-31 00:12:28+00:00

@nntaleb Whivh one? Permalink 2020-05-31 00:11:55+00:00

Peer-Review, Revenge, Tetlock , Mandelbrot, Asness, BS Vendors, Science | Twitter

On 6/1/20 Twitter retired ‘old twitter’ and broke my amateurish code that scraped NNT’s tweets. Working on a new version.


Tail risk of contagious diseases

@nntaleb (A boring dispute w/academics; ignore) Thanks @HietanenPaavo for sending this. Turns out @PTetlock is lying, claiming I made a private dispute public. There was NO private dispute; he just started a public harrassment campaign (“the “). Paavo linked https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40nntaleb%20%40ptetlock%20until%3A2016-12-31%20since%3A2000-12-31&src=typed_query&f=live   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Y32H5JgT3w”>  pic.twitter.com/Y32H5JgT3w Permalink 9:16 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@threadreaderapp Hi, here is your unroll: @nntaleb: MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249296844712218624.html   Talk to you soon. Permalink 8:58 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb A reminder that 1) Science is hard, 2) Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine.html?smid=tw-share   Permalink 7:04 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb Philologist friends, Is the root for מופת in anyway linked to muppistu in Akkadian? If not, what is the Semitic (or non-Semitic) root? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1265823241240825863   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KADXlrKfTW”>  pic.twitter.com/KADXlrKfTW Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb My full time professional specialty is squid ink. The rest are hobbies. https://twitter.com/reiyashi/status/1265265022328078337   Permalink 7:24 PM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile: I am offering PRECISE solutions. It is just that charlatans don’t like them. https://twitter.com/GavinChait/status/1267182088396177414   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PRpEnjp1OO”>  pic.twitter.com/PRpEnjp1OO Permalink 1:45 PM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Things that went intellectually bankrupt over the pandemics & will hardly recover: Epidemiology Fortune cookie (positive) “evidence” base science Bureaucratic topdown structures: WHO, CDC, UK Group Rent seeking academia can no longer be financed. Universities will crumble. Permalink 11:59 AM – 31 May 2020

@DrCirillo Ottimo italiano, Nassim. Bravo. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1267164936049917952   Permalink 11:49 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades. Permalink 11:30 AM – 31 May 2020

@DrCirillo Qui, se interessa, parlo del rischio di coda nelle pandemie, sulla base del recente lavoro con @nntaleb. (the video is in Italian) https://youtu.be/KF24MTJC3Uw   Permalink 11:19 AM – 31 May 2020

@paolarebeiz Results of Thawra petitions and protests to UNESCO. UNESCO is working on halting the contruction site!!! thank you all for your support! #UnescoKnowsWhatsRight #SaveNahrElKalb https://www.facebook.com/103993277992995/posts/117670636625259/   https://whc.unesco.org/en/news/2116   Permalink 7:48 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Benefits of Quarantine: No restaurants: no seed oil, no bad grains. + More time to bust BS Vendors, read novels. + Weight loss 12lbs, resting heart rate 49 BPM. pic.twitter.com/EtignGJFkn Permalink 6:32 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Pope Francis : Stop the destruction of a historical and cultural site in Nahr El-Kalb, Lebanon! – Sign the Petition! http://chng.it/wyBSz2Nb   via @Change Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Added to the book a comment on “evidence based” scientism https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UR13i0yq0B”>  pic.twitter.com/UR13i0yq0B Permalink 5:34 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Look at the reactions to the warnings in Jan. We had a barrage of idiots many of whom deleted their tweets. https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1266888997864865798   Permalink 5:44 PM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Takes very little effort to clean up as very few people cause most of the damage. However the strategy if to automate blocking of groups/friends as trolls operate in hordes. Very similar to viruse #FatTails. (Note that the same applies to BS vendors. Not many, but overactive) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1266794257324609536   Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb “Restaurants are concave. Limited upside, larger downside (like short volatility). Mega-fragile to events and circumstances; nonportable and illiquid”. https://twitter.com/blackswan969/status/1266788766766829574   Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) You all get organized, fight between one another (but no more blocking), etc. I will take care of the publishing (nonprofit). Permalink 10:14 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/Yz8O5JHGRJ Permalink 8:29 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb The point is that Fat Tonys and grandmothers don’t make the mistakes of those levels 0-3. Permalink 7:59 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we need to start a group to work on Lebanese (Levantine) language travel books for visitors diaspora. They usually go study Arabic taught by IYIs & can’t communicate. Published on Amzn @HsenAndil @Marcellenassif @turlevnon @Decafquest @Zzeghedrane @Extrachelle etc. pic.twitter.com/bPdt80DOWU Permalink 7:58 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb The BS Vendors in probability. For those who don’t get my logic, here is a rank of knowledge in probability with level 0 Phil the rat @PTetlock and level 5 “Russian” probabilists. Unless one is Level 4, errors in probability can be harmful. pic.twitter.com/dvpKV56XMJ Permalink 6:39 AM – 30 May 2020

@ektrit @nntaleb @Extrachelle @GregorySMcMuray @Eleni_Co @Marcellenassif @byzantinepower https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1266656918128537601   Permalink 2:09 AM – 30 May 2020

@jdceulaer Ik schreef ook een essay over de catastrofe die corona heet, na lectuur van ⁦@nntaleb⁩ en gesprekken met ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ en ⁦@bslagter⁩. Over Zwarte Zwanen, Russische roulette en het mondmaskerdrama. https://www.demorgen.be/a-be3e8e41   Permalink 9:59 PM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb 100% of 200 worker test positive. Isn’t it a problem with a test that produces too many false positives? #Witgensteinsruler https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/every-single-worker-has-covid-at-one-u-s-farm-on-eve-of-harvest   via @business Permalink 5:21 PM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Bringing Risk Parity into this. It is a footnote since the entire apparatus of Modern Finance is busted. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JH6MGAskqB”>  pic.twitter.com/JH6MGAskqB Permalink 11:57 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Follow the least boring/most entertaining path. Nobody ever learned a new language from nerds. Twitter helps. Follow someone without translation. Or, better, fight with her/him to break the boredom. https://twitter.com/andradedanielbr/status/1266436642035978240   Permalink 11:39 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntalebbot “You can tell how uninteresting a person is by asking him whom he finds interesting.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:31 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Should I block @Mangan150 for defective logic & promoting harm? pic.twitter.com/mLBC9Jf7a6 Permalink 8:43 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb If you like them, wish them prosperity. If you dislike them, wish them extreme wealth. Permalink 8:39 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb I signed the petition letter to the IMF re:situation in Lebanon and invite you to join https://www.petitions.net/supporting_the_letter_of_the_lebanese_people_to_the_imf   Permalink 6:02 AM – 29 May 2020

@ComTradGuru 8 years later, this article remains one of our favorite portraits of Maestro @nntaleb (by @carolecadwalla) https://www.theguardian.com/books/2012/nov/24/nassim-taleb-antifragile-finance-interview   Permalink 12:38 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Un Decameron bilingue (italiano-spagnolo)! Per migliorare le due lingue. Sto cercando di piu! pic.twitter.com/noq9UACaR6 Permalink 6:41 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb For acceptance, we require a SINGLE paragraph bio. No fluff, etc. For scholarship, can be 1 ½ paragraphs. Permalink 12:55 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb RWRI 14: Will be online, but stretched over 2 weeks. August 10-21 weekdays 8:30-12 noon EST (3:30-7 PM Damascus time, 2:30-6 PM Palermo time) We accept bitcoins. No more 2 days, all 10 days. We offer 20-40% scholarships. 11 Instructors (list TBA) http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 12:54 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors unite So Phil the rat @PTetlock enters a debate in a subject he knows NOTHING about, in a situation beyond his understanding (I was attacked by Asness who blew a fuse, not the opposite for saying the Ilmanen study was BS). Simply…because I busted him as a BS vendor pic.twitter.com/4qWhG2LdPK Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Lopez de Prado does not stop at academic credentials. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1266027198571569152?s=20   Permalink 8:32 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Evidence that at least 21,198 persons on Twitter do not understand meta-problems. #Russell #LiarParadox #Epimenedes #Godel https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1265610817271001088   Permalink 7:43 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb @fotpetr Permalink 4:15 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Looks like there is BEFORE and AFTER with @lopezdeprado after I blocked him for inflation of credentials (few citations to support a “most read” claim) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1264169363596365825   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/N8h9FEBaG0″>  pic.twitter.com/N8h9FEBaG0 Permalink 7:13 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Clearer pic.twitter.com/tIFInJ7ppD Permalink 6:58 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY PUZZLE Friends, help. @bmiloy is interested in meaning of מוֹפְתִ֗ים. Turns out 2 strange things 1) Why is מֹפְתִ֤ים also spelled מוֹפְתִ֗ים ? 2) The Hb Mofti מוֹפְתִי (exemplary) comes from the root מפְתִ (kotel), Why is MFTI مفتي with root FT’ فتا ? Permalink 6:52 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb If you EVER catch me discuss a book I haven’t read, I shut my Twitter acct & leave public life. (Exceptions: excerpts Das Kapital, Smith’s TMS, AlFarabi) (PS. I despise pple who discuss my ideas w/o having read my books.) Below: Read Pinker & other crap https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160676871622860800?s=20   Permalink 3:02 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb It seems to be a paradox because r has a finite mean but X has an infinite mean. cc: @spyrosmakrid @fotpetr Permalink 2:12 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Comment on the Cirillo and Taleb (2020) “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases”: the rate of growth of fatalities may be predictable but, by what seems to be a paradox (it’s not), the quantity of fatalities is NOT. pic.twitter.com/ls5PrDKsGt Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb For our French friends who requested a conversation on Ellipticality: with Raphael Douady. https://youtu.be/4kJQAXugOaY   Permalink 10:08 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Glad to see people recreating stuff in my book. https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1265666753503408129   Permalink 8:33 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to get it!! But I picked #AQR among all other representatives of the Flawed Mod. Finance because they keep publishing unrigorous crap about tail hedging & Ilmanen is verbalistic. (Sorry I can’t stand fools. #Rigor in reasoning). https://twitter.com/ElCordobez1/status/1265595687313510401?s=20   Permalink 5:07 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Do polls work, that is, correctly represent preferences? Permalink 4:48 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Ellipticality (Technical) (My Probability Mooc) https://youtu.be/9oIpb4zYxt4   via @YouTube Permalink 12:52 PM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM on ELLIPTICALITY and how it cancels diversification https://youtu.be/9oIpb4zYxt4   Permalink 11:45 AM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb The points presented by @CliffordAsness are far from technical. (BTW I am not blocking him so he can rebut as he wishes). https://twitter.com/Balkanmasturb8r/status/1265289087482814465?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jZyb4wfSgO”>  pic.twitter.com/jZyb4wfSgO Permalink 10:25 AM – 26 May 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | #Tailhedge-deniers go | inspiration sparked by @nntaleb & @moritzheiden Help me pay my bills. Please! https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Zd7tHKYYxp”>  pic.twitter.com/Zd7tHKYYxp Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM ON RISK PARITY Friends, in the wake of the road-rage by the lunatic of #AQR, @CliffordAsness, I will post short tutorial videos explaining the BS in theories of diversification. I will answer Qs here. Thread is v. technical. Nonscientific commentators will be blocked pic.twitter.com/H9EOlNeZEh Permalink 7:04 AM – 26 May 2020

@reiyashi one man on his journey pic.twitter.com/b1NWXtY4wW Permalink 5:54 AM – 26 May 2020

@mikeandallie 3/3 Following that not-so-great project I took a stab at explaining some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas on the sensitivity of virus models to inputs that, happily, are finally starting to get more attention today. Here’s that twitter thread: https://twitter.com/i/status/1264316544915472387   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 May 2020

@yaneerbaryam Four month anniversary still reads true @nntaleb @normonics #coronavirus https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1221500132337819650   Permalink 4:39 AM – 26 May 2020

@GrahamAMcLeod V happy to see this new Nature Physics paper by Nassim Taleb – one of the few ppl to break consensus and warn of Coronavirus dangers as early as Jan 2020 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x   https://twitter.com/GadSaad/status/1264958279467368448   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rkxvr8SihO”>  pic.twitter.com/rkxvr8SihO Permalink 4:35 PM – 25 May 2020

@Covid19Digest “What @nntaleb understood, and what public health officials in places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam understood, was that there was an asymmetry between overreacting and under-reacting.” https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1257004898610302977   Permalink 3:20 PM – 25 May 2020

@TalebWisdom “Never hire an academic unless his function is to partake of the rituals of writing papers or taking exams.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 May 2020

@HarrisonSearles @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb imagined that possibility in January. https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1264911846466826241   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb https://youtu.be/ggrW6qi0qZQ   Permalink 11:59 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb I sorely discovered from the Monsanto days that @reason was a shill house totally unreliable. It is in fact damaging to the liberty & localist movements. You must block everyone who writes there. https://twitter.com/octonion/status/1264976757201031170   Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb It is not about a long life Non ut diu vivamus curandum est sed ut satis (Seneca) https://twitter.com/LIHF_Living/status/1264972992561524738   Permalink 11:05 AM – 25 May 2020

@octonion Even if every single person in New York City had already been infected, 0.3% of New York City would be about 24000, and New York City had already passed that in excess deaths by the end of April. In other words, this is complete nonsense. https://twitter.com/Ubercapper/status/1264941329026514945   Permalink 10:48 AM – 25 May 2020

@EricTopol The video of @DrCirillo and @nntaleb on this fat-tails paper, the tails-wags-the-dog and its important implications https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr0YIcp-zi0&feature=youtu.be   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EsC2HbsH7y”>  pic.twitter.com/EsC2HbsH7y Permalink 8:22 AM – 25 May 2020

@EricTopol The fat-tail phenomenon of pandemics, dating back to 429 BC and including #COVID19, is vital to recognize but tail-risk is largely ignored in current epidemiological models @DrCirillo @nntaleb @NaturePhysics ★ very perceptive work https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x   @tudelft ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KRiswLWjJ1″>  pic.twitter.com/KRiswLWjJ1 Permalink 8:14 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb 11 AM Brooklyn std time (5 PM Palermo, 6 PM Aleppo) we discuss our paper on pandemics in Nature Physics. We +comment on verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords w/o understanding probability s.a. BS vendor @PTetlock+show error w/Ioannidis +propose basic probability training. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1264595200472682498   Permalink 6:52 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb So @clairlemon barges & takes sides in into a conflict she knows nothing about, in a professional subject she knows nothing about, with a lunatic (@cliffordasness) the content of whose rants she understands nothing, simply because: YOURS TRULY is a party in the conflict. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1264707437807824896   Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb Let me rephrase Would an online tuition of 60% of physical for executive education be Permalink 6:18 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Let me rephrase Would an online tuition of 60% of physical for executive education be Permalink 6:18 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Lung ventilators in Antifragile (2012). I later discussed in a scientific paper. Doctors don’t get convexity. https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMuray/status/1264659956374147073   Permalink 2:41 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb I cannot live in societies that spend trillions on nuclear weapons yet are incapable of delivering COVID testing to their populations. The world’s pseudosophistication & misallocation of resources have been increasing… pic.twitter.com/9hBjwnRbqg Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb What are online fees for executive programs as % of the physical? Permalink 11:57 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb The date: most likely August Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we will be doing #RWRI 14 online. To accommodate people overseas it will be 2 weeks (10 days) 8-12 am EST (2-6 PM in Agrigento, Sicily). We still need to work out details and learn to use Zoom. Meanwhile women scholarships are open. Please check http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb One thing worse than being blamed for the wrong reason: being praised for the wrong reason. Permalink 11:25 AM – 24 May 2020

@Jasak98 “Al Zaytouni” restaurant in North-Lebanon Using Syriac and Garshouni in their menu. pic.twitter.com/kRU5cA4ueT Permalink 11:01 AM – 24 May 2020

@DrCirillo An informal conversation with @nntaleb. Tomorrow, Monday 25, at 5pm (CET), in sync with the paper becoming openly available. https://youtu.be/sr0YIcp-zi0   Permalink 9:32 AM – 24 May 2020

@Decafquest Oh look, @paugasol is readinh @nntaleb’s SITG https://twitter.com/paugasol/status/1264382050611523584   Permalink 5:27 AM – 24 May 2020

@HarryDCrane Part of understanding statistics is understanding when a single data point indicates more than just an anecdote, and also when a full analysis of a large dataset is nothing more than an anecdote. https://twitter.com/vakeraj/status/1264271405878779904   Permalink 7:38 PM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb 3eid Mbarak to those who celebrate! Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Excellent solution https://twitter.com/hvairinhos/status/1264234518397046785?s=20   Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Adding to book: Foundation of Risk Parity is, officially: 1) finite and KNOWN variance 2) ellipticality. Problem: variance is not projectable since kurtosis is patently infinite. No ellipticallity since infinite higher order moments. Also problem of preasymptotic behavior. pic.twitter.com/OyDY4YPh6B Permalink 7:44 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Forgot to reference the lunatic of #AQR, @CliffordAsness Permalink 7:02 AM – 23 May 2020

@HarryDCrane Soon to be accompanied by the inaugural “No BS Probability Conference” 1-day event (online) hosted by @researchersone and possibly other sponsors. Permalink 6:59 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, 1st printing is pre-sold out so I can correct mistakes in MS for a quick 2nd printing that shd hit 10 d later. Comments welcome! https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   The discussion w/the lunatic of #AQR is my point that their entire analytic apparatus is incompatible with fat tails. Permalink 6:52 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb No, I am NOT a polymath. I abhore the notion of polymaths. I have a single field: PROBABILITY/RISK/UNCERTAINTY and it happens to be at the core of many fields. Philology & literature are hobbies, not professional contributions. https://twitter.com/DiegoMoldesGonz/status/1264172162283376641   Permalink 5:59 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb No, I did not block Marcos López de Prado @lopezdeprado because of his comments. I had blocked him weeks ago when I saw these claims in his bio. pic.twitter.com/5qLIngpTRx Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Same for exponent. Seems impossible to solve the composition analytically. pic.twitter.com/AAGSF4sUXk Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb CHEATING: By simulation the base is ½ and converges quickly. We cannot use traditional methods because the “generator” function f has a second argument in it, here p. pic.twitter.com/ZpT4qTVRoL Permalink 4:58 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb If you describe an early precautionary reaction as conscious panic, it confuses your detractors… https://twitter.com/HCSArmstrong/status/1263986779671183360   Permalink 5:21 PM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb This may take 5 min or part of the weekend. (please no comments by non-math amateurs). pic.twitter.com/gtWGD8oOOw Permalink 11:59 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Thread. When someone says “you’re panicking” say “Yes, what’s wrong with such a risk management approach?” When someone says “you’re an asshole”, answer “yes, what’s wrong being asshole with the arrogant”, etc. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1263881991814098946   Permalink 10:42 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 5/n Mandelbrot has a monstrous scientific erudition & a yuuge curiosity. He knew arcane math stuff only autodidacts know. But he respected erudition much more than scientific rank, based on his fascinations with polyglot characters like Jean de Menasce. https://twitter.com/ArieHaziza/status/1263874558802698241?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vLSvtwErMa”>  pic.twitter.com/vLSvtwErMa Permalink 10:02 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Did Pinker do another “empirical” analysis to figure out if those who believe in the afterlife have a statitically significant shorter life expectancy? No. You never never miss with Pinker. Wherever he ventures, he manages to produce BS. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1263463995870269440   Permalink 9:42 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I am not used to psychiatricize people; first time I do it as Asness (henceforth “The Lunatic of AQR”) stupidly went into such claims. Permalink 9:34 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb NARCISSISTIC RAGE: HOW ASNESS BLEW A FUSE One shd resist making psychiatric claims, excepty for situations where 100% self evident. Busted #AQR: 1) Fails to deliver claims, 2) Uses pseudoscientific analytics not for fat tails. =>Asness goes nuts. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/narcissistic-rage   https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263823559329288192   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JFCILVjOre”>  pic.twitter.com/JFCILVjOre Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 4/n The great Mandelbrot was 100% uncompromising. But he suffered because he cared abt honors & academic status; he depended on a certain establishment. So I learned from him to do opposite 1) be 100% independent, 2) Do theorems & proofs (which, being intuitive, he hated). Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 3/n Mandelbrot’s contempt for Fama prompted to ignore story in book but it is revived by the connection to the *AQR lunatic* the disgusting @CliffordAsness Fat tails invalidate the tools of finance and Fama is indeed by his own admission unscientific. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1544508050/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i21   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/n Fama’s reasons was that Fat Tails were “incompatible with the tools in social science”. It’s like using the map of Tokyo in Mexico because “here is a map”. I actually wrote to Fama & got same HORRENDOUS answer. Mandelbrot saw Fama never understood the CONSEQUENCES of tails. pic.twitter.com/7R5ojL3X4Y Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 1/n The great Mandelbrot despised Fama whom he found both clueless & dishonorable. Fama was a French major & M supervised his thesis; they applied the Levy-Stable Distribution for markets (mistake since it’s a limit not met preasymtotically). Then Fama turned on M to use MPT. Permalink 5:20 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Grazie amici! L’autore piu suggerito qui e Calvino; e il piu facile da leggere? Leggere la letteratura in una lingua straniera e molto difficile; qual e il libro piu semplice di Calvino? Permalink 4:35 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb We need some help from philologists (including maestros @Safaitic & @PhDniX) about the strange verb دمغ for “killing by damaging one’s head”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263664298900979712   Permalink 4:19 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Here we go, @sapinker will never disappoint. You bust his BS in one field, he appears in another. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1263463995870269440   Permalink 8:14 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Google finally discovering that Lebanese is not Arabic. pic.twitter.com/o9JkbtrTgq Permalink 2:27 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb نحنا منئول بلكورة ” الغايب عزرو معوا” https://twitter.com/HsenAndil/status/1263557433470967808   Permalink 2:17 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 13) The book STAT CONS OF FAT TAILS is freely available in PDF here (easier to read than ArXiv). https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 2:11 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Com’e Eco in italiano? Facile? Permalink 1:39 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Amici italiani, Sto cercando un romanzo facile da leggere in italiano. Sono stato sorpreso di scoprire che la Moravia è molto più ricca e difficile da leggere rispetto, per esempio, a Machiavelli. Qual è il più semplice? Che ne dite di? Barico? Di Lampedusa? Schiaschia? Altri? Permalink 1:29 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb (Note: I am not connected to @TalebWisdom). Robb’s book, it is safe to say, is still on my mind 13 years later! https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1263177133461028864   Permalink 10:10 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 12) Taking stock: AQR pans general tail hedging as a loser’s game. Universa’s risk mitigated portfolio life to date (and BEFORE 2020) outperforms SPX—by slashing risk. AQR portfolios, …, not so much. MPT is smoke and mirrors, topic of my new book. https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/1544508050   Permalink 7:21 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 11) Next time, @CliffordAsness someone tries to have lunch with you to discuss risk parity & things, do not blow him away unceremoniously claiming you don’t eat his food. It would have avoided you the embarrassment of these genuine but highly unscientific outbursts. Permalink 7:19 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb The responses of Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness too this thread have been vastly… nontechnical. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263102555565023233?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dRcROHacVM”>  pic.twitter.com/dRcROHacVM Permalink 5:01 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 10) The responses by @CliffordAsness to this thread have been vastly …nontechnical. pic.twitter.com/1gWESuSBJQ Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb #Lindy! That’s the way to do science without the rentseekingacademiconasalary gaming the system. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1263189643492757506   Permalink 4:16 AM – 21 May 2020

@enzolamberti Buongiorno @hugowiz , did you have your @NonMeek #brikka coffee yet? pic.twitter.com/dwdFekaZMP Permalink 12:32 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 9) For the general public watching the road rage of Mr Asness who misreplied to my last post: The claims by AQR is: tail risk is not needed by funds because there are ways to do it better. As we are finding out: the performance of AQR doesn’t show it. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263283331862495232?s=20   Permalink 6:56 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb The entire point is by that by cricitizing a tail risk mitigation via OTM options one would expect AQR’s risk mitigation to be better. It’s not and that’s the story. (I also insist that there is was never a PERSONAL mention of Cliff Aness, just AQR.) https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263266366343327748?s=20   Permalink 6:23 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 7/n Perhaps Mr Asness can show us empiricists, with the benefit of hindsight, which fund he wants us to pick to get the relative performance. PS- I have no interest in Asness, not even AQR, but they can’t get away w/nonsensical claims abt tail risk. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263266354909626369?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/txJQrm9aQU”>  pic.twitter.com/txJQrm9aQU Permalink 6:05 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 6/n Perhaps Mr Asness should show us which of his funds we should look at, and since his answer has a psychiatry dimension, we turn to some psychiatry. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263252874794086400?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SJ2USJ1pcL”>  pic.twitter.com/SJ2USJ1pcL Permalink 5:27 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 5/n #AQR Make AQR aware that OTM options have >> fatter tails than underlying (+ one-tailed), hence hidden moment are substantial. Similar to floods. “Empirical” simulations are not predictive in the naive intrapolative way. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263222080323162113?s=20   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR What You See and Don’t See: Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution. The said “empirical” distribution hides stuff! Where is the hidden moment for n observations? Intuition of the results of paper below https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.05894.pdf   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64WDwef5jKI   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 4/n #AQR Ilmanen the bullshitter (& the AQR team) among other things don’t seem to get that tail payoff != probability x payoff under fat tails. You need to include payoffs not part of this, and g(x) is convex (option payoffs by convexity are MUCH MORE FAT TAILED than underlying) pic.twitter.com/7skOHLO6sJ Permalink 1:45 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 3/n Antti Ilmanen claims tails must be expensive from lottery tickets (but excludes 1987 crash); doesn’t get basics: Stat 102 does’t cover when assumptions are violated (Gauss-Markov, etc.) Fails to get Bayes’ rule. Note: while RISK PARITY is ~unique, tail hedges vary hugely. pic.twitter.com/8HrZ4QkOnj Permalink 1:27 PM – 20 May 2020

@john_f_hamer “Trust those who trust you and distrust those who are suspicious of others.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2nd edition) @nntaleb Permalink 12:40 PM – 20 May 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Yes! Although I had heard it before, I only got the consequences of it when I read your book and played around with simulations. It bogles my mind how much misunderstanding comes from not replicating everything in statistics. Thank you for saying it aloud! Permalink 9:37 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/n (#AQR) Meanwhile Universa hedged portf outperformed SP while AQR crap and RISK PARITY junk underperformed. I cannot believe that AQR will issue claims from hypotheticals. Further they are mired in the probability distributions & metrics that have been amply debunked. Permalink 6:46 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 1/n AQR issued 2 flawed reports saying tail risk hedging doesn’t work (in theory), options are “expensive” Yet they did not reveal that 1) Their OWN risk premia strategies lost money. 2) Their other public crap underperforms the MKT. Insult to clients & the REAL WORLD. Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Explaining with minimal complexity the non-ellipticality of probability distributions when the correlation is unstable. Explains the failures of RISK PARITY, some BS invention that sells to gullible clients innocent of probability. pic.twitter.com/Iv3hxQJZB4 Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb FRAGILITY, OVEROPTIMIZATION & COVID No, it’s not the lockdown that’s breaking NYC! Restaurants & hotels are so stretched (mostly rent) that they go bust after a 8-18% drop in rev/occupancy. Same w/theaters,museums. Real estate must adjust (distancing) #Convexity #Nonlinear Permalink 5:42 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb This is central. https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1262833575251939328   Permalink 12:53 PM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 3b/ Weightlifting from @CoachRippetoe & @GrantSSC, exercise/health from @GuruAnaerobic Levantine language from @HsenAndil, @Marcellenassif, @turlevnon & others And here and there from friends on Twitter Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 3a/ You can learn yuuuuugely from Twitter while playing. I learned Inequalities frm Maestro Bogomolny (RIP) & the FB Romanians Semitic philology frm @Safaitic & @PhDniX Latin frm @ArmandDAngour Computational math frm @WolframResearch History frm @holland_tom @DrMichaelBonner Permalink 11:52 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb Voila, plus or minus a calculation error. pic.twitter.com/R9NlSF9igk Permalink 11:19 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ #RWRI proved that experienced people are uniquely capable of teaching a real world subject: doctor trains doctor, nurse trains nurse (& doctor), risk takers train young risk takers (not some nerd), accountant train budding accountants, thief trains thief, prostitute trains… Permalink 10:42 AM – 19 May 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 63: Something for those interested in Greek linguistics: misspellings shed light on contemporary pronunciation. This Greek text accompanies a Safaitic inscription of a man named Maṭr of the lineage of ṣabāḥ (صباح). But look how the tribal name is spelled. pic.twitter.com/CuGYUzX04f Permalink 5:12 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) To visualize the intricacy, see my comments #RWRI on negative prices via arbitrage/squeezes. @johncarlosbaez Permalink 10:02 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb We use negative probabilities in quant finance since probability is just a KERNEL inside an integral, rarely a “real thing” outside of binary payoffs. So long as *no arbitrage* is satisfied. Only thing that matters is (by scaling) ∫densities=1. Similar to negative prices in oil. https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1262053722336620545   Permalink 10:00 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb 1) The taste of (cold) revenge is by far the most underrated human experience. Not for cowards. Not be good for society except when revenge does not lead to more revenge. 2) Written ~170 y ago. I’ve never read more limpid more recent page turner. #Lindy = #ergodic seller! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1258853603554574336   Permalink 8:58 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb By “find love” I meant “find love (in different categories of varying expected duration)”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1261317028993957888   Permalink 8:22 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb I like the peer-review system. It is necessary, but never sufficient. Also depends what you call “peers”. Peer-review of decision science papers in psychology is worthless. Permalink 8:12 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb THE DEATH OF ACADEMIA: peer-review creates citation rings of high ignorance. The epidemiological models developed by @stephen_wolfram, his son, & @dzviovich in 1 or 2 afternoons were light years ahead of models by academia w/zillions of “peer reviewed” crap. As to finance… pic.twitter.com/aExX51TEe0 Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb The Monsanto days are back: $$ buy science! https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/stanford-coronavirus-neeleman-ioannidis-whistleblower   Permalink 5:00 PM – 15 May 2020

@dvassallo I’m from Malta (left 10yrs ago), and when people ask me how’s work culture in the US, this is what’s different. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1005515603019554818   Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 May 2020

@nntaleb The main function of a conference is to get a job, find love, corner potential customers during parties, or get a subsidized (or tax efficient) vacation. Content is merely a side effect. Online conferences need something else. Permalink 8:26 AM – 15 May 2020

@HietanenPaavo 2 I’d assume this is partially of what Prof @nntaleb means when he says “Govts don’t shut down economy, people do” Fins export business is worth 92 billion euros (article above) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1254072995628408832   Permalink 1:05 AM – 15 May 2020

@nntaleb This is how Umberto Eco’s library looked. pic.twitter.com/NmriwamUjg Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb Glad @RaminNasibov corrected. Umberto Eco’s library was 1) light, 2) modern w/white shelves (based on Ikea’s Billy), 3) comfortable and inviting. You felt like wanting to spend every Sunday afternoon there. This is dark, musty, uncomfortable, and … has too many books. https://twitter.com/RaminNasibov/status/1260951032886149121   Permalink 11:33 AM – 14 May 2020

@birdxi1988 The simulation shows that even with R0<1, an epidemic may still be thriving somewhere in the country. I think ⁦@nntaleb⁩ mentioned this in January,as an average,R0 is biased downward because the outbreaks have fat tail due to “super-spreader“ events. https://www.santafe.edu/news-center/news/transmission-t-024-cristopher-moore-on-the-heavy-tail-of-outbreaks   Permalink 10:01 AM – 14 May 2020

LOCALISM, “libertarians”, ADAPTATION, Justin Amash, @Reason, Marshmallowbrained Psychopaths, Ioannidis

Never use single point estimates for pandemics 5/13/20

@Monsantobuster Prof Taleb @PTetlock does not know what a probability distribution means. pic.twitter.com/YAXNpVst4s Permalink 8:10 AM – 14 May 2020

@bohemianGunjan “Panic is good only if you panic early, and as a trader the first thing you learn is to panic early”. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb. @nntaleb Amazing talk, thanks @MFBALA, @AyeshaFaridi1 pic.twitter.com/oVkA9hj0SL Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb Removed the black board https://twitter.com/MFBALA/status/1260861161354002433   Permalink 4:17 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb Ready in front of my blackboard ! #Voyage2020 https://twitter.com/pvsubramanyam/status/1260875407441760257   Permalink 4:05 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1260719597126324228?s=20   Permalink 5:26 PM – 13 May 2020

@mikeandallie Sharing ideas from @nntaleb ‘s “never use point estimates for pandemics” video with kids https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2020/05/13/sharing-ideas-from-nassim-talebs-point-estimate-for-pandemics-video-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 4:08 PM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb What I mean by LOCALISM. Linked to subsidiarity: you leave to HIGHER collective structures things that cannot be done by the individual, under constraints of liberty. We need govt where we can’t sue (systemic harm: viruses, GMOs, invasions). Govt is the systemic risk mgr. Permalink 1:35 PM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Never use single point estimates for pandemics https://youtu.be/_ZLrZc9NPVw   via @YouTube Permalink 1:27 PM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Voila https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 10:07 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb For pandemics if the average exists, about ~95-99.9% of observations would fall BELOW the average. Aside from the slow workings of the law of large numbers. Should I explain this in a short video? Permalink 5:24 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo forthcoming in Nature Physics later this week explaining the point, @mattwridley. Tail exponent <1, even possibly <½ means NEVER issue a single point forecast and NEVER present an average. pic.twitter.com/51GNm1cr5t Permalink 5:16 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb ERRORS 101 Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts. These errors are promoted by the Idiot of Pennsylvania, Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock. https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1259898818017058818   Permalink 4:49 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Why you should NEVER have awards in academia. https://twitter.com/GowagsKyle/status/1260530857821028352   Permalink 4:29 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb No, @RaminNasibov that’s not Umberto Eco’s library. His library is below. https://twitter.com/RaminNasibov/status/1260142681495306240   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/bWbltHFv9S”>  pic.twitter.com/bWbltHFv9S Permalink 4:20 AM – 13 May 2020

@nntaleb Post dinner, lockdown. pic.twitter.com/xRLGE5CFe9 Permalink 6:18 PM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb Note the response to masks. Some people are “libertarians” because of a mental defect, a combination of severe inhibition of logical faculties coupled with sociopathic behaviors. Others like @justinamash are genuinely multiscale localists. pic.twitter.com/IMQE2e6yiO Permalink 6:15 PM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb Point isn’t even reopening. It is the preponderance of people without masks in stores! https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1260372488955060225   Permalink 6:09 PM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb Here is my adaptation: work with a *real* blackboard on zoom. Just finished a discussion with @fotpetr and @spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/fotpetr/status/1260229030873268227?s=20   Permalink 8:35 AM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb Lebanon fared exceedinly well, <10 fatalities per million compared to > 500 per million in hot spots (& growing). https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1260125696417918977   Permalink 2:47 AM – 12 May 2020

@nntaleb 3) Personal resets: I have been eating in restaurants 10 times a week… Hard to adapt to new environment because home eating can ~ food quality w/best ingredients but will never replace the exhilaration of an ambient crowd… Maybe they will reset & start garden restaurants! Permalink 4:01 PM – 11 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) Many small professional resets: learned to lecture on Zoom. Learned to set up a blackboard behind me for illustrations. Of course could start a business along these lines. Universities are going out of business & there is something to grab as they are too incompetent to adapt. Permalink 3:56 PM – 11 May 2020

@nntaleb ADAPTATION Do a total reset professionally, economically, personally. Treat this thing as if it were here to stay & make sure you can do with it. If it goes away, it will be a bonus but remember that the shadow of the following one will be progressively built into the system. Permalink 3:24 PM – 11 May 2020

@nntaleb And this for the sooooooo misunderstood law of large numbers https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1253408590833963008?s=20   Permalink 11:25 AM – 11 May 2020

@nntaleb This is excellent. He is simulating from my book STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. Advice to @DavidSalazarVir : increase n for large samples, to see the Mediocristan case go flat like a dinner table or the intellect of an economist. https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1254843961153187842   Permalink 11:15 AM – 11 May 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Some numbers to back what @nntaleb has been saying for months: the economy tanking is in large measure a bottom-up process. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1259435094764183552   Permalink 9:03 PM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb There we go, an intelligent version of libertarianism! https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/1259561994547605505   Permalink 1:00 PM – 10 May 2020

@BuddyCA64525731 Wonderful @nntaleb venn diagram on the right way to formalize and teach probability and risk. @macroarb @zoeharcombe https://twitter.com/zoeharcombe/status/1259447505747619840   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TJrUKCNTZF”>  pic.twitter.com/TJrUKCNTZF Permalink 8:54 AM – 10 May 2020

@DrSamPappas “Inflammation is the most frequent affection and the one showing the most number of varieties ..“ Galen of Pergamon ⁦@_Tom_Pappas⁩ ⁦@amyriolo⁩ @nntaleb⁩ Ancient Mediterranean wisdom already knew about #CytokineStorm Permalink 8:36 AM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb Seond hint. I guess we’re done. pic.twitter.com/2i4mwWp0AG Permalink 8:06 AM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb If you want to drive a fool to insolvency, lend her or him some money. Permalink 7:44 AM – 10 May 2020

@MarcosCarreira Before affirming that children are “immune” and can be exposed to risky environments, remember that: (1) Many problems will not be diagnosed due to the avoidance of hospitals, doctors (2) Saying something never happens can be disproved by a single example (see attached) @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1255941572908244996   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/waXtJl6Igm”>  pic.twitter.com/waXtJl6Igm Permalink 6:17 AM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb Bottom up vs top down. The photo is BEFORE my weight loss. Very unfair. https://twitter.com/zoeharcombe/status/1259447505747619840   Permalink 5:20 AM – 10 May 2020

@nntaleb נותנה ואינו יודע למי נותנה, נוטלה ואינו יודע ממי נוטלה. נותנה ואינו יודע למי נותנה, לאפוקי מדמר עוקבא… https://twitter.com/ofer_rubin/status/1259255171986665473?s=20   Permalink 5:13 PM – 9 May 2020

@nntaleb Make your failings public; keep your virtues secret. Permalink 1:04 PM – 9 May 2020

@nntaleb Libertarianism reposes on the nonagression principle, which COMMANDS mask-wearing under the SILVER RULE. Permalink 8:32 AM – 9 May 2020

@nntaleb If you are a nonimbecile Libertarian, or localist, you want collective action to arise bottom up in a decentralized way. This is EXACTLY what is happening! Responses are largely local abt everywhere. #NonImbecileLibertarianism #NonPsychopathicLibertarianism #Localism https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1258931279317405696   Permalink 8:26 AM – 9 May 2020

@nntaleb I am in Atlanta where restrts have been ALLOWED to open. The ones I know are closed. Nice to blame local governments. It was bottom up. Clearly, most of these “libertarians” are not just geronticidal sociopaths but defective in reasoning & empirical awareness. Permalink 6:59 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Indeed, a faux debate https://twitter.com/Covid19Digest/status/1258936747699965953?s=20   Permalink 6:53 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Lockdowns (largely)followed individual behavior rather than the reverse. Except for teenagers who carry a tiny economic role. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1258897844771028993   Permalink 6:26 PM – 8 May 2020

@yaneerbaryam Why is the Batshit Crazy idea of Herd Immunity still with us? 1/4 Permalink 2:16 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb The other problem is attending a lecture on Zoom tires you much more than one in the physical world. You need to focus with some intensity all the time, can’t get cues otherwise. Permalink 1:20 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Having been separated from my library & reading on an Ipad, it is w/yuuge relief (after 463 pages) to finally get the real thing! Digital is useful for some things, but one remembers much, much better what one touches, views in 3D, and smells. It’s like exiting a 2D prison. pic.twitter.com/sKxGxOJy2E Permalink 1:17 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Publishers are indeed confused by my approach. Never separate words from aesthetics. This format is Lindy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1208317781634113536?s=20   https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1258832399409876993   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/T8KE4d5VeB”>  pic.twitter.com/T8KE4d5VeB Permalink 12:02 PM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Hint pic.twitter.com/otSFzfIUPr Permalink 10:08 AM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb You know when it starts. Never when it ends… https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1258775700829601792   Permalink 8:10 AM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb Something to start the weekend with. Courtesy Dan Sitaru. pic.twitter.com/PGLvK4TGTK Permalink 7:57 AM – 8 May 2020

@nntaleb “HEAVY BOX” : weighs 9 lbs. I wonder if I can add a volume without messing up the physical package. [PS –enjoy the Prosecco @ozwegian] https://twitter.com/ozwegian/status/1258473140084248577   Permalink 3:10 PM – 7 May 2020

@normonics Yaneer has been tireless in tackling this pandemic. This makes me sick to my stomach https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1258474980129546242   Permalink 12:20 PM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb Never, never complain about your enemies. Only losers complain. Drive them to complain about you. Permalink 12:01 PM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb Bi Masr byektbo bil Masré. Ma 3ndon 3e2dé! 7atta fi Wikipedia bil Masré! https://arz.wikipedia.org/wiki/  الصفحه_الرئيسيه https://twitter.com/Ghonim/status/1225534329679380481   Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb Excellent question! Just as correlation/covariance do not properly measure informational distance, standard deviation/variance do not measure the degree of uncertainty. More effective is entropy and conditional entropy for downside. —- I ANSWER ALL LEGIT TECHNICAL QUESTIONS https://twitter.com/bitpharma/status/1258413098588934146   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VtquYba4Vr”>  pic.twitter.com/VtquYba4Vr Permalink 9:00 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb South of Avignon is the Med France but Provencal is closer to Italian Permalink 7:21 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb The French are Germanics who think they are Mediterraneans and speak a Latin language with a German accent. Permalink 7:16 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb Solid statistical inference lies in destroying BS with a single but powerful data point. Disconfirmatory empiricism. https://twitter.com/joe_shipman/status/1258251049971875840?s=20   Permalink 3:17 AM – 7 May 2020

@nntaleb I get v. angry when I read crap by “Johny Evidence” Ioannidis who still doesn’t get multiplicative processes w/α<1 need to be cut in the egg. This is the city where I’ve resided ~2/3 of my life. So far 75% of the people dying are dying of COVID, not counting future morbidity. pic.twitter.com/ng5cxGEBlE Permalink 4:01 PM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb Traduttore Traditore! Dumas in Cte de Montecristo: “condemned for 5 m to Italian cuisine, one of the WORST in the world”. While waiting for the mailed hard copy, was trying to read it online in Italian: “una delle piu MEDIOCRI cucine del mondo” #Cheating but Italian >> French Permalink 3:23 PM – 6 May 2020

@trishankkarthik This is why we need more people to get the #RWRI mindset @nntaleb @financequant U.S. military busy spending trillions on offense rather than than worrying about practical risks like this virus that will easily throw them off in the homeland Permalink 3:15 PM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories Just as victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. “Intelligent” people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump #TheBlackSwan pic.twitter.com/OZ3ALN6AnV Permalink 1:27 PM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb Mr Meng, It’s the naive hedging strategies that lead to underfunding. Not the effective ones. Just a quick reminder. (Mr Meng is Chief Investment Officer of CalPERS) https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/coronavirus-side-effect-calpers-drops-to-60-funded/   Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb 1) I don’t write for magazines (except short comment every 5-7 years) 2) @Reason is penetrated by exMonsanto shills/corporate interests 3) Intellectual caliber is low, dominated by sub-naive empiricists 4) I have many more readers than @Reason Ideas here: https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/JustHereToShare/status/1258102534465413120   Permalink 12:13 PM – 6 May 2020

@viziandrei “Contrary to orthodox belief, success is not being on top of a hierarchy. Success is standing outside all hierarchies.” — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/2NTpoCTMPO Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb We need to figure out which “libertarians” are really localists without the right language, and get them on board. #localism https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1258042758780125184   Permalink 9:15 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb So far (stopping because there is no rain) pic.twitter.com/E4Xev3ocBC Permalink 5:17 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb (As usual please do not pollute the math threads with nonmath comments. I had to block a few people to clean up the thread. Thank you for your understanding.) Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb In case it rains today pic.twitter.com/gom8RW9Qv7 Permalink 4:23 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb Indeed, this is the essence of #localism! https://twitter.com/FitzroyMotor/status/1257968997041127424   Permalink 3:50 AM – 6 May 2020

@nntaleb I read Spencer’s stuff as I started learning about genetics. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1257687089132343296   Permalink 4:17 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Details pic.twitter.com/ynv4GBZR8o Permalink 3:48 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb 4) “Libertarians” are also incoherent: they deny stores the right to require masks & constrain their freedom yet ask for freedom… Nothing to do with libertarianism: rather a collection of marshmallowbrained psychopaths and misfits taking their hatred of humanity too far. Permalink 12:39 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Here @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/hez1PydBHF Permalink 12:20 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Other than pic.twitter.com/lzgr1mVQda Permalink 12:12 PM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Afternoon workout https://twitter.com/SrinivasR1729/status/1257667717986844672   Permalink 11:57 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb I’ve been fooled by individuals. Never by ideas. #Libertarians #Psychologists Permalink 10:06 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb So Dr Faust, MD & MS, plus some Harvard thingy, is proposing a FAUSTIAN bargain that he does not understand. Permalink 7:53 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb It is the same first order pseudo-libertarianism that asked to remove airport security checks on grounds that there was no terrorists on planes anymore. Permalink 5:43 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb This dangerous imbecile is attributing job losses to deaths, as if it were govnts (not the virus) who caused the losses , & as if measures did not reduce fatalities (cockpit locked door paradox in #TheBlackSwan). Aside from the odious approach to a “trade-off”. Shameful & stupid. https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1257379261016616960   Permalink 5:20 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb 3) “LIBERTARIAN” is meaningless a designation if you live under silver rules and laws. Localism is the only way to make what is called LIBERTARIANISM stand on its feet. Permalink 4:27 AM – 5 May 2020

@Jaffer22915438 This is fantastic! In language that I can even understand. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1257625992627138561   Permalink 4:15 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) PRINCIPIA POLITICA shows the effects of scale/localism. Systemic harm has no tort laws (you can’t sue a virus) so you MUST use the Precautionary Principle. Many libertarians are just cranks & sociopaths. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 4:04 AM – 5 May 2020

@nntaleb Being flooded by first-order (scale-blind) “libertarians” (of the no masks, “freedom” to infect others variety), arguing that reactions to the virus (but not the virus) will cause hunger & famine. Since when have these selfish sociopathic “libertarians” been concerned w/famine? Permalink 3:53 AM – 5 May 2020

@Alvarus_lat Ne tituli legi possint apud Zoom https://twitter.com/benjcartlidge/status/1257278773046718464   Permalink 5:02 AM – 4 May 2020

@bessbell Send this thread to any idiot fucker who posts an Instagram at the beach or a crowded park. Tell them my dad says see you later. Permalink 3:25 PM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb Why you don’t manage tails using an “average” or a “forecast” but how much uncertainty there is in the system. My derivations pic.twitter.com/iDHhelODw1 Permalink 2:46 PM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb My point summarized by an engineer, someone in the real world. https://twitter.com/perepescador/status/1249137866602696704?s=20   Permalink 2:38 PM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb The thrill of writing when you do it ON YOUR OWN TERMS. Stop the minute it requires the smallest effort. Painters are said to enjoy painting, writers “having written”. Painters are free & ~all writers write on someone else’s terms. I don’t write reports, emails >240 ch, etc. https://twitter.com/kazivana/status/1257035761247031299   Permalink 1:56 PM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb Here is a simple detail https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1248980856531812354?s=20   Permalink 9:03 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb There is ZERO rigor with Ioannidis. ZERO probabilistic reasoning & risk management rigor. He doesn’t even known what an exponential means. ZERO. https://www.wired.com/story/prophet-of-scientific-rigor-and-a-covid-contrarian/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=wired&utm_social-type=earned   via @wired Permalink 8:34 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb Like the spaghetti-minded Phil-the-rat @Ptetlock, there are still some pple around who are not getting skin in the game. To repeat: it is not just an incentive-disincentive problem but a FILTER –a filtering mechanism that helps remove harmful idiots. https://twitter.com/SaintSal/status/1256919393591857152   Permalink 5:18 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb Excellent idea. You want freedom to infect others; now pay for it. None of the people in parks enjoying their “freedom” should have any priority over and displace other sick people in hospitals. https://twitter.com/uuilly/status/1256800553062916096   Permalink 4:59 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb 3) The pisteuo pbm is the reason first-order atheists a la Dawkins & religious people talk past one another: simply religious beliefs never claimed to be epistemic that is, belief in the scientific sense. You need to remove verbalism & labels to understand what something means. Permalink 4:44 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ In Semitic lang., “Amen” means “trust”, not epistemic belief, so professions of faith state trust. The Syriac credo is “mhayminan 7ad aloho” = “WE TRUST only one god”. (not “I” since; is no Nicene creed for non Greek-Orthodox/Cath) Doxa in Christian Aramaic/Syriac is tshba7. pic.twitter.com/VLTM6j7Fbo Permalink 4:39 AM – 3 May 2020

@nntaleb This is the “pisteuo” Πιστεύο pblm. Credere does not mean epistemic belief, but trust, which I defined as “pisteic”, a kind of doxastic committment . From the Nicene credo: “Πιστεύομεν εἰς ἕνα Θεὸν” In Engligh, “belief” ~beloved. Note: δόξα = belief, gift, & glorification. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1256900841954578442   Permalink 4:07 AM – 3 May 2020

@morethanmySLE WATCH: Frontline health care workers in North Carolina stand-down protesters. This is AMAZING. BRAVE. And SAD that as hard as they have worked to SAVE lives, they have to CONVINCE people to stay home to protect these protesters from spreading #COVID__19 pic.twitter.com/RuzaOpRF9L Permalink 9:11 PM – 2 May 2020

@nntaleb Used the same chalk for this and weightlifting (the bar is next to the board). Punishment for distraction while lifting: injury. Mild, but serious punishment. pic.twitter.com/jwIA5hJeMC Permalink 9:32 AM – 2 May 2020

@ektrit Risk vs Ruin are two different things. From Skin in the game by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/hXRApNmnY1 Permalink 6:29 AM – 2 May 2020

@ektrit Risks involving tail risk, meaning risk which can cause collapse, must be avoided at any cost. From Skin in the game by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HECvdVsEPa Permalink 6:15 AM – 2 May 2020

@nntaleb MATH DU JOUR Stumbled upon an inequality but can’t prove it formally yet. Can’t find it in the literature. I’ts a generalization of x y/(x+y)^2<= 1/4 (Non math commentators & trolls will be blocked) pic.twitter.com/noka1PHrvc Permalink 5:47 PM – 1 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ It is like an inverse problem vs problem. If you reverse engineer a dish based on ingredients you have at home, rather than decide on a given dish, for which the restaurant must carry at all times ALL ingredients (with no leeway), the mechanism is vastly more efficient. Permalink 5:58 AM – 1 May 2020

@nntaleb Deux poids, deux mesures? https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1255824103099039745   Permalink 5:51 AM – 1 May 2020

@nntaleb QUESTION Given that 1) people stopped going to restaurants, 2) they kept eating, & 3) farmers are dumping produce, dairy, meat owing to a surplus nobody wants, could it be that restaurants, (because of their need to maintain variety & excess quantities) waste a looot of food? Permalink 5:39 AM – 1 May 2020

@JensWilhelm2 @nntaleb this is the best explanation of your 2 people-2 filters theory up to now! https://twitter.com/PHLPublicHealth/status/1255941752164401153   Permalink 12:20 AM – 1 May 2020

@nntaleb As expected, the Texas sharpshooting style ex post change of initial target. Now let’s look at the implications. https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1255835517511483394   Permalink 6:49 PM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/2 Weightlifting Discussion du jour: Clean-Press Part 2: which one is safer/easier for heavy weights, + Power clean + Muscle clean PS- Thanks Maestro Grant @GrantSSC for answers to 1). Permalink 2:23 PM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Weightlifting Discussion du jour: Clean-Press If *x* is the weight that you can press from a rack for 5 reps, how many reps should you be able to do if you clean the bar first, for the exact same weight *x*. 5? 3? 2? cc:@GrantSSC Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We don’t see counts of morbidities from Covid. Reports seem focused on deaths. We need more rigorous accounts/estimates of damage to lungs, brains, heart, repro system,etc., ACROSS age groups. We have no clear idea if “permanent” but can see the risks from earliest infections. Permalink 12:26 PM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The problem in the US is that proportion of overweight (or, to be polite, “exceedingly well fed”) & metabolically challenged pple; the chief vulnerability for Covid. That makes any comparison or mortality rates between the US and Europe unrigorous. Permalink 7:30 AM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bingo! You never congratulate anyone for winning at the Russian roulette. https://twitter.com/alexandrionascu/status/1255863340800319493?s=20   Permalink 7:22 AM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb DYNAMIC vs STATIC While the wisdom of a tail-risk decision under asymmetries is not to be decided after, comparative numbers for Sweden are much worse. Sweden’s numbers are growing at ~50-150 a day, Norway’s 1-5. So expect the ratios to soon be 4000-6000 vs 220-250 for Norway. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161   Permalink 6:58 AM – 30 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Looks like this is coming out in a genetics journal (as part of a larger study). Finally introduced rigor in the measurement of Genetic distances. Correlation/Covariance do not reflect distances, ENTROPY does. https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7NyMSSC727″>  pic.twitter.com/7NyMSSC727 Permalink 6:43 PM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Tweets like that made me discover @justinamash. He seems to be a threat. Much more on that, later. https://twitter.com/PamKeithFL/status/1255619460288962560   Permalink 6:37 PM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Interesting. Alberta Investment Management Corp blew up EXACTLY in the way described in Chapter 3, “better convex than right”. https://twitter.com/premiamgmt/status/1255572797293621249   Permalink 12:47 PM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Actually, started already. pic.twitter.com/BRrfkdKDGv Permalink 10:53 AM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Free America now… from psychopaths! pic.twitter.com/jm9TKY4HTo Permalink 6:14 AM – 29 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Underestimation of deaths from COVID. This is an interesting demonstration of the difference between thin/fat tails. NonCovid deaths follow a thin-tailed distribution w/Chernoff bounds & v. low variance. So it is v easy to extract the near exact difference. #StatMethodology pic.twitter.com/PqXZjtb1OR Permalink 4:04 AM – 29 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie 1/2 I’ve been meaning to get to this paper for a few days but only found the time tonight. As usual Nassim gets to the point right away and the result presented in the introduction is fascinating – see paper below for full details and the next tweet for the result in the intro. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1253358169214107648   Permalink 4:08 PM – 28 Apr 2020

@normonics fucking idiot. https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1255193968809250823   Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Conditions for PHASE 1 reopening: + Mandatory masks in public + Tests + No superspreaders: subways, urologists conferences, etc. + Monitoring of passengers + Economists & psychologists stay locked-up at in permanent quarantine. Basically what we should have done in late January. Permalink 1:00 PM – 28 Apr 2020

@dottorpax Un mio lavoro con @nntaleb sul rischio di coda delle pandemie uscirà nei prossimi giorni su Nature Physics. Sarà accessibile a tutti, e posterò presto il link qui sotto. Il messaggio? Meglio non scherzare con certe cose, evitando i modellini giocattolo che si vedono in giro. Permalink 11:39 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Removal of skin in the game. https://twitter.com/WallStCynic/status/1255126652050378761   Permalink 10:37 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Tarde velle nolenlis est, Governor Cuomo. Permalink 9:42 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Wishes”. Andrew Cuomo “whishes he blew the bugle on the virus in January. cc: @normonics @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/VOaVVZadG3 Permalink 8:49 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@stevesong Need to apply @nntaleb’s rule. Any corporation receiving a bailout should have executive remuneration adjusted to match that of a senior gov’t bureaucrat. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1255026523855376386   Permalink 5:47 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is the first step in the dismantlement of citation rings. https://twitter.com/gfresh84173971/status/1255015591611686914?s=20   Permalink 5:25 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@renegruner1 When you haven`t heard of NNT. @nntaleb #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/bWZ9xmkkrV Permalink 5:04 AM – 28 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Universities: If this continues, expect tenured faculty to get serious pay cuts & to finally have to justify their existence & the USEFULNESS of their so-called “research”. Permalink 5:16 PM – 27 Apr 2020

@nntaleb There is this illusion that the economy is harmed by the reaction to the virus rather than by the virus. In fact, if anything, it is harmed by the lack of EARLY reaction to the virus. Permalink 8:54 AM – 27 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Stop the bullshit. Sweden did HORRIBLE compared to Norway Denmark Finland. Japan is an easily closed Island. Use comparable levels of connectedness. Permalink 8:28 AM – 27 Apr 2020

@nntaleb BS spotting du jour. Throughout history, we’ve ben quarantining “healthy” and “unhealthy” people. For the very reason that we only know ex post whether they are healthy or not. https://twitter.com/merlynwood/status/1254469140061892608   Permalink 8:12 AM – 27 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This was (before my weight loss) a conversation with @Confusezeus at the Fletcher School of Diplomacy in 2015. @MilenaRodban who was in the audience was told that the faculty (political science empty suits) complained that “it was not academic”. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1249445673117900800   Permalink 6:28 PM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Thread on errors in growth of pandemics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1254132648185921537?s=20   Permalink 6:17 PM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb A reasoning mistake by Johnny Evidence https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1248980856531812354   Permalink 6:15 PM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Never tell people something if they know if already and they know that you know that they know it. Permalink 10:26 AM – 26 Apr 2020

@MasaSkiba Some things never change. pic.twitter.com/AwIpZz7kq6 Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb An interesting twist: until 1860, my ancestors specialized in shipping merchandise between the Ottoman Levant and Marseilles. Permalink 8:20 AM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb How did the #Lindy crowd miss this? https://twitter.com/StearnsLab/status/1254170977103044608   Permalink 8:15 AM – 26 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “I love models,” he adds. “I do a lot of mathematical modeling myself.” No you don’t, “Johny evidence” Ioannidis. Science” is not about asymmetry in decisions: we didn’t wait for scientific evidence to know not to jump from a cliff. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176   via @WSJ Permalink 5:40 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Of course psychologists and pseudoempiricists are the first to promote danger. They were the ones who said Jan 26 that worrying about the virus was paranoia, cost us trillions so far. They don’t get multiplicative risk. Here is Phil the rat @PTetlock https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1254182701864714241?s=20   Permalink 4:02 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb These imbeciles really want to subject us to another virus. Why is why genetic modification of things that MULTIPLY fall under the (nonnaive) precautionary principle. Recall Mao’s policy to eliminate sparrows caused 50 mil to die of famine. #UnintendedConsequences https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/1254160786148200459   Permalink 3:18 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb And the converse: if X is Pareto then r is exponential (\alpha). cc:@DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/6DR5MRbnik Permalink 3:14 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Using a double exponential (Laplace) we get a power law to the right (naturally not the the left) pic.twitter.com/fLi6UbeowS Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Note you can use a double exponential (Laplace) Permalink 2:42 PM – 25 Apr 2020

Ioannidis, Tetlock, Summers, Masks, Oil, Russian Roulette, Astrology


From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben | Youtube
Published on Apr 24, 2020
+ Why the crisiss was not a Black Swan.
+ Masks compound (even if primitive)
+ Convexity Ben misleads with his “hedges”

Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (pdf 4/18/2020)

(Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine (pdf 7/31/2018)

The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System | NewYorker

As Taleb told me, “The great danger has always been too much connectivity.” Proliferating global networks, both physical and virtual, inevitably incorporate more fat-tail risks into a more interdependent and “fragile” system: not only risks such as pathogens but also computer viruses, or the hacking of information networks, or reckless budgetary management by financial institutions or state governments, or spectacular acts of terror. Any negative event along these lines can create a rolling, widening collapse—a true black swan—in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid.

Taleb: The Only Man Who Has A Clue | NakedCapitalism

Tutorial: Simple trick to see the effect of power laws | Youtube
Published on Apr 19, 2020
A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution becomes noise.
Once you establish that a variable is in the power law class, some necessary consequences come out.
To debunk that history is dominated by tail events, you must show it does not follow a power law.

@nntaleb So we can infer that the rate of growth is NOT Gaussian, must be in the borderline subexponential class. r can be negative of course. Permalink 12:54 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/5lATAOUZr7 Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Math Du Jour: What is the Distribution of Pandemics if the rate of growth follows an exponential distribution with mean 1/\lambda? Explains very simply the result with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/1StNQ7XFim Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap dichotomy you hear, as if 1) letting the virus run wild would not kill the economy 2) It is the government that is closing the economy, not pple A segment of libertarians/conservatives have a reasoning defect as they think in binary & static labels. https://twitter.com/RECusack/status/1254071852890284032   Permalink 8:41 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb So far, by substitution pic.twitter.com/MpMGzmY8Be Permalink 8:24 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a mathematical problem, only for those into math. I block cute comments that are not helpful & distract the readers. Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine workout pic.twitter.com/AC2B4T6m4V Permalink 6:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Larry Summers, advisor? Aside from his hideous track record, Summers was fiercely AGAINST putting skin in the game of decision makers. He even managed to transform my claim that it was “necessary” into “sufficient” & argued on that basis. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b14zbkx4h89y1b/larry-summers-and-nassim-taleb-go-mano-a-mano   Permalink 4:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Foreseen by @barabasi https://twitter.com/pauld198/status/1253838892597309440   Permalink 2:35 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@urcum62 Angela Merkel truly understands the Covid dynamics and the Math behind it. She also understands the diffucilties associated with low probabilities. #AngelaMerkel https://twitter.com/benjalvarez1/status/1250563198081740800   Permalink 5:37 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Looks like the govmt is hiring Kroll to investigate #RiadPonzi’s books. Kroll specializes in FRAUD, tracking transfers, etc. Permalink 12:29 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add this to the list https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1222573660952842240?s=20   Permalink 10:22 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Lebanon: #RiadPonzi Salameh is the most destructive central banker in history. He managed to stick to power for ~30 y through 10 governmnets. He is now trying to make it political. No, it is not because Hezb hates him that he is suddenly competent, honest, & principled. #Lebanon Permalink 10:11 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From the Convexity of Masks to Convexity Ben https://youtu.be/L5DCWU6heKI   via @YouTube Permalink 8:23 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/24/coronavirus-systemic-risks-black-swan-squawk-box.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar   Permalink 7:39 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The point is not whether it works or not (it may); it is just irresponsible to gamble with citizens under such opacity. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1253678040305094660   Permalink 6:53 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@hjluks Sarcopenia should be a four-lettered word … If you’re over 40 it’s happening as you read this :-( . So much badness comes from a lack of muscle mass. So much goodness comes from improving your muscle mass. https://www.howardluksmd.com/sports-medicine/muscle-mass-strength-and-longevity/   Permalink 6:32 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@Monsantobuster Best summary, Prof @nntaleb https://twitter.com/okohonen/status/1253607153857974274   Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@vibinbaburajan [Thread] Nassim Taleb’s 17 best one-line wisdom. @nntalebbot @nntaleb @TalebWisdom 1. The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary. Permalink 2:24 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo. https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1252519056403501057   Permalink 5:40 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Trying to get my head around fat-tails by studying @nntaleb’s latest technical book. Replicated some plots in #rstats #tidyverse https://david-salazar.github.io/2020/04/17/fat-vs-thin-does-lln-work/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NFuuQVhcXg”>  pic.twitter.com/NFuuQVhcXg Permalink 12:41 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I was expecting the #Lindy activists to dig out mask-wearing practices in history. For instance, the Tuareg berber tribes: men wore masks. pic.twitter.com/frToQRC8Hv Permalink 10:53 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Emanuel Derman (who knows something about probability) exposing the dangerous BS by Phil the Rat @PTetlock –whose knowledge of probability is way too primitive. https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/1252958006695911424   Permalink 9:26 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases” using Extreme Value Theory. Advice by non EVT-trained epidemiologists concerning COVID-19th tail risks is no different from advice by a carpenter concerning complex odds at roulette tables. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08658.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/FxQ5Jr9tJO”>  pic.twitter.com/FxQ5Jr9tJO Permalink 9:20 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From my dispute w/ #NoConvexityBen Meng from CALPERS (currently) largest fund on planet PRINCIPLE: Thou Shalt Not compare convex payoffs (w/ tiny downside) to linear ones (w/yuuge downside). More Basic: Thou Shalt Not Call speculative trades “hedges”. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-questions-calpers-ben-mengs-competence-and-honesty-in-defending-missed-1-billion-hedge-gain-taleb-estimates-calpers-net-loss-on-mengs-alternative-mitigation-over-two-years-at-19-billi.html   Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The safest policy is to act as if we had NO idea about the consequences of this. https://twitter.com/robkhenderson/status/1252724074335424519   Permalink 2:41 PM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are interested in masks & testing. Not in geopolitics (except on the weekend). Not in spending trillions on nuclear weapons when we can’t even get N95 masks. https://link.medium.com/fmROiAGnS5   Permalink 10:59 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1250996337530867718?s=20   Permalink 10:34 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Gambling by governments is irresponsible, even if the result turns out to be favorable. Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Our security = testing incoming passengers at JFK, not where trillions were spent: building yuuuge capabilities against very weak nations. Where are the tests? Where are the masks? Spending trillions (literally) because governments don’t understand the real sources of risk. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252932181447630848   Permalink 8:41 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paulina N is correct to emphasize the death toll. But it will be much higher as you must integrate future deaths at rate. Also missing morbidity: % of survivors end up with permanent lung & other damage. Finally, even if Sw ends up ahead (it won’t), the move is not responsible. https://twitter.com/paulinaneuding/status/1252494869559476224   Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Reduced connectivity Masks Culturally, precaution is respected https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/1252812420357083137   Permalink 4:29 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bachelier was right. https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/1252918341364256768   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pamW1RqDK4″>  pic.twitter.com/pamW1RqDK4 Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New hobby thanks to lockdown: Olympic lifts https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1252758824689242112   Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom Here is one of my favorite @nntaleb quotes: “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.” Permalink 1:37 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Joe is good. Very good. Should we start calling him “Sherlock Shipman”? https://twitter.com/joe_shipman/status/1252668127495806977   Permalink 3:39 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LINDY Quarantine & restriction of mobility are Lindy; they are present in the old testament & in Islam: “If you’re away, & disease breaks out, you stay there. If home, you stay home.” https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1252443190499717121   Permalink 2:19 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@DrAmithaMD Waited for this… such a good analysis on whether #COVID19 was a rare event (it was, but we ignored the signs). “The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System” @nntaleb https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker&utm_social-type=earned   via @NewYorker @bavishai Permalink 12:09 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman STATISTICAL INFERENCE PUZZLE @nntaleb Is “2 false positives in 401 trials” consistent with “50 false positives in 3300 trials”? What is a good null hypothesis, and what is the p-value? Permalink 8:05 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Actually slight modification to the great results by “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis. You don’t need Jensen to prove the inequality pic.twitter.com/AbQI9rbcDQ Permalink 6:51 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The Trump Administration is suspending immigration owing to the Corovirus pandemic after discovering the interesting epidemiological property that (documented) immigrants are highly infectious, but tourists & business visitors are not. Permalink 6:48 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Another grave error in the “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis & friends paper, not too dissimilar to Simpson’s paradox, (also spotted by @gian_rinaldi, private communication): They don’t get the convexity of divisions. If a result doesn’t make sense & comes from nerds, it is wrong. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1252549640714665984   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/afMaSqvF0Y”>  pic.twitter.com/afMaSqvF0Y Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@ishirubi Ok I can go rest in peace now: pic.twitter.com/cYAIlQsLFF Permalink 3:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) This is from Dynamic Hedging (1997), with a discussion of fungibility and first deliverable contract. pic.twitter.com/BTDXA6Bc7k Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Oil: The basis is out of whack because of storage. It is like being stuck in traffic in a Bentley, and no possibility of leaving it so you need to pay someone to take it from you. Permalink 12:30 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@paulanawfal من كم شهر رحت لأحضر ندوة ل @nntaleb بالجامعة اليسوعية وما كان في وسعى مبارح حضرت الإعادة وهيدا المقطع هو المفضل الي بالندوة #RamsusRiad pic.twitter.com/00vLBPkT4w Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Every #RWRI we discuss the situation how *oil above ground* (hence the front oil future) can sqeeze suckers and have a negative value because it can be impossible to store during a glut and impossible to abandon because of EPA. Negative optionality from liability. https://twitter.com/business/status/1252298699792883713   Permalink 11:56 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #protectyourpension #CalPERS #tailrisk #tailhedge https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/press-ferrets-out-more-falsehoods-by-calpers-cio-ben-meng-evidence-of-poor-leadership-in-giving-up-1-billion-hedge-payday.html   https://www.wsj.com/articles/calpers-unwound-hedges-just-before-marchs-epic-stock-selloff-11587211200   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/J3rUY6vc60″>  pic.twitter.com/J3rUY6vc60 Permalink 9:51 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2015: When people ask me to talk about RISK, I talk about epidemics. Not ISIS, not journalistic BS. [I lost weight and increased by Max DL by 100 lbs since] https://youtu.be/DDdBTaLjGIo   via @YouTube Permalink 9:08 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Sorry, I meant he doesn’t get that car accidents are not multiplicative. IOANNIDIS: Here we have someone doing probability & lecturing people on probability errors who like this ignorant Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock has never heard of Chernoff bounds. Permalink 7:54 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis, in his argumentation, reasoning, and demeanor reminds me of what we call “a pre-blown up trader”. He doesn’t get (among other things) that driving 9 to 415 miles is not multiplicative and CONTAGIOUS. https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1249941253887844352   Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a statistical signal abt HQN to ADDRESS even if Zelenko, like Raoult, doesn’t look like Dr. Could be: samples of large “anecdotes” are biased, or NY & Marseilles hide the dead. Note that the media DOES NOT require a double blind for Gilead. Explain the dual standards. https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1252180245760937996   Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@balajis Just-the-flu journalists failed across the board. That includes Fox, and the NYT reporter now denouncing Fox. pic.twitter.com/tnSaw7LWOG Permalink 3:16 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Compare the richest countries, such as Sweden, making a “tradoff” (which is not even a tradeoff anyway) compared to much poorer places in the East Med, India, or China that wouldn’t even remotely consider a Faustian bargain. Shame. Wealth brings moral degeneracy. Permalink 2:25 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb GERONTICIDE is the sign of moral decay. Indian official explained only “rich” countries make a tradeoff betw lives & “economy” (assuming they are separable). The argument of “lockdown costing lives” is bunk: in the poor country, India, ~nobody starved. The richer, the worse!!! Permalink 1:30 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to understand stuff. It took a pandemic for that. I never never dreamed that my Russian Roulette argument would be expressed by those against whom I have used it over the past 2 decades. pic.twitter.com/Xih2Vse1Ft Permalink 10:57 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution is NOISE. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhTHG3QmVwM&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 10:04 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo on the Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases. Explains our attitude towards the disease; why epidemiological models are largely NOISE. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rats will also be liars. “Phil the rat” @PTetlock is misrepresenting the reason I call him a rat. It is for spending years trying to publicly discredit our concern for tail payoff, ergodicity w/o a slightest clue abt the statistical implication of power laws, even probability. Permalink 7:06 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Solution. This friend of mine found the trick. If there is (cc) on Youtube you can see both the subtitles in the original language and the transcript in English. pic.twitter.com/ZhHkwO8D0z Permalink 4:19 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add: the IYI was wrong on masks, mobility, multiplicative risks, etc. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1251827685841608704   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Alternative explanations are 1) ouzo (what we call in the Levant “the milk of lions”), 2) Orthodoxy: Unlike Spain, Greece celebrates Easter on the correct calendar, 3) Greek coffee (a.k.a. Turkish). Otherwise quite convincing. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1251704323035344896   Permalink 3:20 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@SrinivasR1729 Go down deep enough into anything and you will find mathematics. pic.twitter.com/EUP0mV41u6 Permalink 12:12 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/JeE1psGJKF Permalink 4:56 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Learned to cook linguini with squid ink. Who needs restaurants when you have 1) internet access, 2) good olive oil, 3) really fresh garlic & parsley, 4) fresh tomatoes, 5) good white wine, 6) salt, etc. pic.twitter.com/JDDogjGEF7 Permalink 4:53 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Currently people testing positive (or presumptive positive) are sent home to infect their families. Where is the outrage? There should be other options so that families will be safe. Every community, state and country, should have a “Safe Family” program. Permalink 4:23 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, this friend of mine wants to watch a Greek movie with both Greek and English subtitles. Netflix can do it in other languages, not Greek (he is based in the US). Is there a way to do it? Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Χριστός Ανέστη ! Permalink 11:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@artemon Seems like a great case of absence of evidence being treated like evidence of absence, plus violating the precautionary principle. Thank you @nntaleb for teaching me to see these clearly. https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/no-need-to-wipe-down-food-packaging-during-coronavirus-pandemic-fda-says/amp/   Permalink 10:35 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nobody realized that for Lebanon, Greece, Cyprus, & Marseilles, the real reason of the low rate of Corona infections/fatalities is the arak/ouzo/pastis. Experiments show you need to drink it during & before every meal for it to be effective. And try the purest you can find. pic.twitter.com/XQzIIs0L4N Permalink 8:48 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bravo #Lebanon. Early paranoia pays! pic.twitter.com/CU5yP416tf Permalink 4:47 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb What is behind, among others, the moniker “Phil the rat” @PTetlock. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1250994645041131522   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@berndschiffer And also @nntaleb ‘s “new kind of ingratitude” comes to mind. “Who is more valuable, the politician who avoids a war or the one who starts a new one (and is lucky enough to win)?” #COVID19Aus #COVID pic.twitter.com/UXLn1kAOMs Permalink 3:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@uair01 Nice picture of extremistan versus mediocristan mortality and why ” Covid is different: @nntaleb @trishankkarthik https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1251113801384185858   Permalink 7:40 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@stevenstrogatz Yes, @nntaleb practices what he preaches. On the day we met, he walked me around New York for seven hours and enjoyed a plate of pasta with squid ink. https://twitter.com/humankarp/status/1248240881666347008   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DhhphvMtrp”>  pic.twitter.com/DhhphvMtrp Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Drowning in swimming pools is extremely contagious and multiplicative. https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1250975504401760256   Permalink 4:19 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb HITS THE SPOT: “What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists & virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisons and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about.” https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html   Permalink 5:23 PM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb OK, OK. Thanks @yvessmith https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html   Permalink 11:57 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: In Judeo-Arabic Baghdad seems to be spelled בגדד not בעדד(with a gimmel not a ghayn) (unlike more historical غزة-> עזה or Gomorrah עֲמֹרָה not גמֹרָה from transliteration Γομορραν) (pharyngeal [ʕ] not epiglottal [ʢ.) When was the غ lost in Hebrew? Permalink 10:50 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Why you cannot use epidemiological models with point estimates when variables are stochastic. An illustration. You end up with a crazy distribution of outcomes, get fooled. This is our problem with the UK “model”. pic.twitter.com/yBk1AygMwN Permalink 9:36 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is potentially yuuuuge. Do not miss. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1250088423450435588   Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I don’t know if he (and those liking the graph) realize that an R-squared of .15 means, if you look at it generously, that almost all the variance is for random reasons, something like ~98% (conventional) or (entropy) >99.9%. @salilstatistics https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821828891250688   Permalink 4:52 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@Jac5Connor Nassim asks an important question: Do masks cause earthquakes? I bet this is why the WHO took so long to recommend them. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249760833967656961   Permalink 1:14 PM – 13 Apr 2020

@gernelle «Une catégorie de personnes ne cesse d’augmenter(…) plus douées pour expliquer que pour comprendre. Ou plus douées pour expliquer que pour faire.” ⁦@nntaleb⁩ cité par ⁦@sebastienlefol⁩ dans un édito percutant #covid ⁦@LePoint⁩ https://www.lepoint.fr/tiny/1-2371181   Permalink 11:40 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Just explained in a lecture that risk management and “science” are not the same thing. Risk is about asymmetries. With .1% error rate, few flight attendants would be alive. pic.twitter.com/mTZMi4YKaK Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Do not conflate doing science and being nice and polite to scientists. Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, another robust question to get the convexity. How many people contracted COVID while wearing surgical masks? How many w/N95? How many with cowboy scarves? (Assume for now homogeneity. We are looking for convexity, not measurement). Permalink 7:13 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We have a hint: @dzviovich just sent me something useful: comparison of US vs CZ w/a single sign. difference: edict to wear maks. We know masks work (from other combined statistical signals). Now let’s back up the convexity of probability of infection to particle concentration. pic.twitter.com/H2KNgiptX5 Permalink 7:06 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We need to get the probability of getting sick at different concentration of droplets. We could probably back it up (or get a handle on the convexity) from country data (Czech republic). Intuition: reduction of 70% of particles is yuuuge: home masks should work. Plus if 2-way! pic.twitter.com/Fd4nQ8Pxmr Permalink 6:53 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb There is something about “ceteris paribus” (everything else being constant) for a marginal property that commentators are not getting. Permalink 5:36 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@spwells An excerpt from my interview with @VanceCrowe discussing why the Coronavirus pandemic isn’t a black swan event. @nntaleb https://youtu.be/wjUp6EKEI7k   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/emiTijIbp4″>  pic.twitter.com/emiTijIbp4 Permalink 5:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The answer is by @Physical_Prep which maps to the 2/3 scaling exponent found by Geoffrey West. It depends on your level of course as you can see. https://twitter.com/Physical_Prep/status/1249478047478276100?s=20   Permalink 4:45 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb WEIGHTLIFTING Friends, for every additional 10lbs of say deadlift how many additional pounds of muscle mass would be gained? Approximately of course. Permalink 3:07 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I’ve lost weight since. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1249445673117900800   Permalink 2:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@normonics John Conway lost to coronavirus. That is terrible news. Conway’s game of life is something I always show at #RWRI. NEVER fails to make the floating lightbulbs above everyone’s heads spark on. RIP https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1249439501585453056   Permalink 1:54 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday! And, to those on the non-Orthodox calendar, Happy Easter! Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That’s for an individual. If everyone wore *VERY BAD* masks, I guess the number of deaths would drop by a yuuuge factor, maybe 90%. Why? p is probability of infection, look at 1-p^n because everyone is reducing. For 2 pple masks act a 2-way filter, 1-p^2. Yuuge. Permalink 4:44 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The proof is in https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/I7ibmge5EY”>  pic.twitter.com/I7ibmge5EY Permalink 4:30 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to viruses by 30% thanks to an “imperfect” mask does not mean reducing risk of contracting the disease by just 30%. By convexity, it must be more than 30%, can even be 95%. Permalink 4:22 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Treading *absence of evidence* as *evidence of absence* is a form of overoptimization. Permalink 3:52 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman https://www.npr.org/2020/04/10/830348837/covid-19-patients-given-unproven-drug-in-texas-nursing-home-garnering-criticism   This is an very evil article. It may not be apparent at first why I make such a serious charge. But I stand by it. It is viciously slanted with sophistical language and manipulative presentation, even though the truth can be discerned anyway. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb and… the NYT and science journos and ignorant “evidence based” epidemiologists who can’t read absence of evidence got us here. Don’t blame mayors who shut down cities, blame misinformation about masks and mobility. Blame the New York Times. Permalink 6:49 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb It’s not the reaction that wrecked the economy. It’s the LACK of INITIAL reaction that wrecked the economy. Proper border controls on Jan 26, plus masks & tests & we’d be fine now. The @CDC, @WHO, UK Gov helped spread disinformation. After 3 m, still no masks & tests!!! Permalink 6:38 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Correction: Does Big Pharma own the media? Permalink 3:22 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chloroquine: Does Big Pharma owns the media? + Studies are said to be “not rigorous” when it comes to Chloroquine in spite of robust statistical signal + Studies w/less rigor and significance are promoted when it comes to drugs by Gilead Note: Chl was OTC, costs 1 Euro a pack. pic.twitter.com/UU2URRxWNV Permalink 3:19 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Managed to sneak in 2 footnotes for my new book related to COVID before the printing starts. https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/1544508050/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=taleb+tails&qid=1586634894&sr=8-1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/9XRe6AxUsg”>  pic.twitter.com/9XRe6AxUsg Permalink 12:57 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best therapy; lowers our anxiety and helps organize our minds while facing mild uncertainty. Aesthetic and harmless; unlike economics and social “science”. Discussed in #FooledbyRandomness https://twitter.com/viggiereggae/status/1249038310405701632   Permalink 11:34 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@birdxi1988 This is how @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam and @normonics ‘s Precautionary Principle destroys the evidence-based practices. In January, they specifically warned that the estimated R0 would be biased downwards. Guess what, CDC says that R0 appears to be 5.7 vs. 2.2-2.7 previously thought! pic.twitter.com/xP9BOb4Jl3 Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@davidsarac What Nassim Nicholas Taleb is showing us by his persistent rudeness is that things one is ready to be rude about are worthy of understanding too In terms of evolutionary dynamics, it is a cry of the bird warning other birds predator is approaching Permalink 10:54 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb More elegant. It is hard to live on a planet where the most cited person in epidemiology, John Ioannidis, doesn’t understand exponential, hence multiplication. Yet he tries to make policy. pic.twitter.com/iZadn4eaUK Permalink 8:57 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Wrong. Levantine coast had 5 additional Greek areas. Plus Berytus and Baalbeck spoke mainly Latin owing to Law school and Roman resettlements. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1248733254838075392   Permalink 7:43 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis does not get that model uncertainty WORSENS possible outcomes under exponential growth & should lead to MORE reaction. Dangerous ignorance. Here is a derivation from Jensen’s ineq. pic.twitter.com/XGUtqlR2py Permalink 7:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@pierrewaters Localism & mafia: news the @nntaleb crew will like: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents   Permalink 5:28 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:18 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@mikeharrisNY Their logic and yours is wrong. Because doors sometimes fail to stop thieves, does it mean we should not have doors? Is this what is proposed? Can someone be so dump? Apparently, yes. Permalink 1:59 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rightwing sociopathic quacks like @BjornLomborg: are ALWAYS on the wrong side of things precautionary, (including climate). Saying “no worse than the flu” was ignorant 3 months ago; saying it after data from the past few weeks is outright malfeasance. @Twitter blocks fakenews. https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1248666930313134083   Permalink 4:02 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From @RupertRead: states that Precautionary Principle applies ONLY to specific multiplicative things/power law call with alpha<2 Beware misinformaiton by frauds such as the rat @PTetlock & shill @Dgardner making it look like undirected paranoia (Martians invading the planet). pic.twitter.com/yDKmdBOebW Permalink 12:15 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Very encouraging to see young Lebanese from all backgrounds attacking the shill #MarcelGhanem for making an antisemitic remark. Things have changed! https://twitter.com/firasmaksad/status/1248638888970727426   Permalink 11:53 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Everyone must see!!! https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1248234206582300673   Permalink 11:23 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@BrankoMilan Indeed, after every seasonal flu, NYC does mass graves… How can people write such easily contradicted things is beyond me to understand. https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1248666930313134083   Permalink 10:42 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Many solutions, mostly @SrinivasR1729 This tidies the whole “ting”. pic.twitter.com/bV6N71TcZj Permalink 10:40 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@eassily Hah ! @nntaleb and @byzantinepower would appreciate this pic.twitter.com/3U68wb9hXp Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Weekend distraction. By @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/IStnXBEU2H Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best part about this is that I can walk in the park without being asked for a selfie (or an autograph) by a graduate student in computer science at the local university. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1246091194557509632   Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Yes, office transmission is much much much more controlled than cross-geographical superspreaders. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1248339170810044417   Permalink 1:01 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, real heroes. And criminal neglect by risk-blind “evidence based” bureaucrats. And, friends, in the meanwhile, wear a mask. Again, than you all the Dr Chowdhurys. https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/1248236912298676224   Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Serious business (weight trainining): Friends (@GrantSSC & others), how long, after a *true* 5RM or 1RM deadlift (meaning you can’t redo it right away), does it take to recover at 100% and redo it? 20 minutes? 4 hours? 3 days? Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Fat tails. Reduce superspreaders. https://twitter.com/pauld198/status/1243322026166636545   Permalink 9:01 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@cdipaola62 @Judgenap thoughts on prospect of class action lawsuits against hospitals/health systems? Will the nurse’s unions put pressure on in other ways? Interested in your opinion. @nntaleb @CalNurses @MassNurses https://twitter.com/ppe4medics/status/1248220605092179970   Permalink 5:25 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Most “evidence based” IYIs use statistical tools they don’t understand AND are deprived of the logical faculties of grandmothers, which explains the explosive blunders of @WHO, “science” journos, @CassSunstein, @R_Thaler, idiots like @PTetlock the rat, etc. https://twitter.com/Amellal1490/status/1248211351232753664   Permalink 5:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb FAT TAIL PROPERTY 90-98% of the diffusion can be reduced by limiting superspreaders & forcing masks: + Subways/buses + Conferences (especially involving psychologists/behavioral economists) + Planes + Elevators + Bars with bad Negronis + Indoor restaurants/cafés Rest is normal. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1248046032119713795   Permalink 5:42 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Statistically, you should see much more of this. The system imposes some #Skininthegame: those who inflict risks on others are subjected themselves to the same risks. As with Boris. Sad. https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/pastor-who-criticized-coronavirus-mass-hysteria-dies-from-illness/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons   via @nypost Permalink 1:45 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@mncube This is how @nntaleb trades https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1247933676874334208   Permalink 11:17 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb And Mr @david_perell if you need ancestry for my version of “skin in the game”, you don’t go up to Steve Jobs. Try harder and deeper into history: Hammurabi, >3750 years ago. Permalink 11:15 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice try, @david_perell He is using the term “skin in the game” as incentive not as risk asymmetry (be responsible for the harm you do). Try again. https://twitter.com/david_perell/status/1247922133784612864   Permalink 11:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR February in Chr Aramaic is Shbat,ܫܒܳܛ, “blows” from ” רוח נשבת” (the wind blows, original Accadian Šabātu) hence “windy month”. (Others were ~Babylonian gods). Remarkably the French Revolution renamed “Ventôse” (windy month) the span from Feb ~19-March 19. Permalink 6:58 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Adding to the prior retweet to say that Nassim’s 2019 paper linked below plus the recent work of @ole_b_peters and @alex_adamou on ergodicity economics have been hugely influential to me not just in thinking about option pricing, but thinking about long-dated risk generally. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1247875980619898880   Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb You did not need recent events to get that the mean-variance based methods, along with RISK PARITY used in finance (by many funds) are a fraud. I explained the details in #TheBlackSwan See paper how we (my friends & I) price options under power laws. https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mHYZk0W0ok”>  pic.twitter.com/mHYZk0W0ok Permalink 6:16 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In a hospital if you are dealing with patients. But in social life you don’t have the exposure and, critically, BOTH have masks. https://twitter.com/ndehouche/status/1247561146829160453?s=20   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry. Never bail out without clawback. https://twitter.com/premnsikka/status/1247646108144320513   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I revealed it at the USJ lecture last November, from data from (among others) Toufic Gaspard (live on national TV). #RiadPonzi then launched a smear campaign. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU&t=3960s   https://twitter.com/loubnanouna1/status/1247840083631394817   Permalink 4:04 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@GMWatch Powerful condemnation of the UK govt’s failure to follow the #PrecautionaryPrinciple over #COVID19 — by UEA professor @RupertRead, who together with @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @normonics & others, has for months repeatedly been demanding precautionary action to save lives. https://twitter.com/RupertRead/status/1247600027712647168   Permalink 3:41 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3)Other fallacy is by the *tradeoff idiots* who don’t get: a) even if governments did nothing, airplanes & restaurants would be bust by now as # pple are doing bottom-up quarantines b)hospitals would be overwhelmed c)millions of young sick (many w/permanent damage) d)+uncertainty Permalink 5:45 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) I meant don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want *your children* to treat you! Actually the “triage” (sacrificing the old) is a new European thing introduced in Italy; Roman society worshiped & protected the elders. Same with Eastern societies. (Senatus=Sheikh=elder). Permalink 5:17 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Aside from the pathetic modeling behind the “herd immunity”: it is morally repulsive. Civilization RESIDES in the enforcement of intergenerational golden (actuallly, silver rules): don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want them to treat you! From #SkinInTheGame #Incerto pic.twitter.com/fzB2W5kWpE Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@spwells Spread of the Olive Tree in the Mediterranean Basin ⁦@PZalloua⁩ ⁦@nntaleb⁩ https://vividmaps.com/olive-tree-in-the-mediterranean-bassin/   Permalink 11:25 AM – 7 Apr 2020

Sue, @WHO, NYT, LOCALISM, Chloroquine, Asymmetry, Masks, Branson, @CassSunstein, Superforecasters, De Blasio

The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon)

Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You
(With Mark Spitznagel)

Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their own stock (so the CEO gets optionality), instead of building a rainy day buffer? Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favoring the fool and the rent-seeker.

Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist

 

@nntaleb Flooded by journo/TV/podcts to talk abt #BlackSwan My business is research/writing, not conversing w/ bullshitters; they shd read my books… & tweets! Harari has a staff of 12 handling stuff. Me: staff of 0, but email robot deletes interview requests not from friends. Gabish? Permalink 10:12 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The legal system will fix the problem. Sue owners (private equity funds) & managers for knowingly endangering your life. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1247561089233158146   Permalink 9:44 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs … Permalink 9:17 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb As I said, the problem we face is “science” journalism. A real problem. #AbsenceofEvidenceisNotEvidenceofAbsenceParticularlyUnderRiskAsymmetries https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1247506964046843905?s=20   Permalink 8:05 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Something tells me the quarantine might last longer than planned. pic.twitter.com/FGJNOKgYA8 Permalink 4:50 AM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Levantine is not Arabic Permalink 7:08 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I can provide some training if you need, @NAChristakis. God (or evolution) invented curse words for a reason. https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1247338300706361345   Permalink 6:55 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Idiots! Scientism kills pple’s innate reasoning abilities & survival instinct You don’t wear a mask jus because you have evidence that transmission is airborne. You wear a mask because YOU DON’T KNOW whether transmission is airborne. #Asymmetry. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/   Permalink 6:22 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Il faut arrêter de me casser les pieds! Marseille, en anglais, s’écrit avec un s. Permalink 3:18 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@PaulSkallas he ended up deleting the tweet pic.twitter.com/LEbF4jI7bB Permalink 1:36 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I wrote this for Mike’s children for them to understand statistical significance, something Bloomberg, Forbes, NYT journalists are not getting yet spreading confusion. So unless they cook their numbers in Marseilles, there is preliminary significance. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1246809237050871810?s=20   Permalink 12:43 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@ejajo Written in 2016, happening now: “They can thus cause monstrous iatrogenics[1] without even feeling a shade of a guilt, because they are convinced that they mean well and that they can be thus justified to ignore the deep effect on reality.” [1] Harm done by the healer. #IYI Permalink 12:33 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Not surprising given my analysis of the Marseilles data (see tweet w/the Mathematica file). The question is how large the effect. Also why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? OK, he’s the most cited virologist who talks on TV like a TV healer; doesn’t help. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/491358-cuomo-use-of-antimalarial-drug-in-new-york-hospitals-anecdotally?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true   Permalink 12:21 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@BiruniKhorasan According to all accounts, Ibn Sina did not suffer fools. The more I read about him, the more he reminds me of @nntaleb If Ibn Sina lived in 2020 and had an encounter with a fool on Twitter, he would first call him “idiot” and then block him. 100% positive. Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I a preparing an elementary thread on what risk management means and how “evidence based” is often endangering people. Permalink 10:39 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In by forthcoming book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails pic.twitter.com/F7ECEhiwzB Permalink 10:26 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The IYI has a copy of The Black Swan on his shelves but mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence. (article from 3 ½ years ago) https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   Permalink 9:36 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots such as Ioannidis not getting absence of evidence vs evidence of absence in the risk domain. https://youtu.be/FUgHKX0clhU   via @YouTube Permalink 8:19 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That NYT? +Ran articles about irrationality of worrying about the pandemic +Opposed the travel ban +Now blaming the administration for not having stiffer travel ban https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1246776199805898752   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/czrGEeI6Lu”>  pic.twitter.com/czrGEeI6Lu Permalink 7:25 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Criminally stupid. https://twitter.com/Dhruvapandey/status/1247092388033490944   Permalink 4:15 AM – 6 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Evidence based” means that she recommended in her Forbes column in late February that people wear no masks. Yes, NO masks. Because absence of evidence is not evidence based. It is hard to share the planet with such dangerous people. https://twitter.com/tarahaelle/status/1246939663086075906   Permalink 4:31 PM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Good news from Lebanon. This is the cabinet meeting in early March (when Boris & Trump had their full mugs exposed). They acted quickly. They have <20 death (~4.5 mil) 100 times less than than NY. Acting quickly pays. And wear your fucking mask! pic.twitter.com/5Ngit7ByMC Permalink 11:10 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Now, either @raoult_didier’s treatment (chloroquine) is incontrovertibly effective or, + More people are dead than claimed (in Marseilles the dead have been actively voting since the Fr. revolution) + He treats pple who don’t need treatment + Something in the water/confounder Permalink 10:51 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) Genetics & misunderstanding of dimensionality https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   Permalink 9:54 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The work in progress is here. Not yet the curse of dimensionality. 1) Correlation https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Fooled_by_Correlation_Common_Misinterpretations_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 9:53 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Once we are done with the epidemiological models, we will show why polygenic scores produce spurious results like these & why this claim is PURE noise. Hint: curse of dimensionality, paper to come. PS–genetics is a mess. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1246759506325000193   Permalink 8:52 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Mike Lawler (@mikeandallie) should make his kids derive the significance of the Raoult chloroquine results, a trivial illustration –something that seems to escape medical commentators. pic.twitter.com/IUeVtw57ff Permalink 7:37 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@DrSamPappas Excellent map @ByzantinFR of genetic lineages and overlap of civilizations @_Tom_Pappas @amyriolo @MikeEmanuelFox of Eastern Mediterranean regions as inspired by a tweet from @nntaleb summer 2019 https://twitter.com/ByzantinFR/status/1138442256741031938   Permalink 7:02 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I am amazed that an error that eludes “evidence based” “scientists”, nonprobabilist statisticians, Pinker-style naive empiricists… is explained very simply by Mike to his kids. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1246785515258511360   Permalink 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Explaining an important statistical idea in @nntaleb ‘s “What you see and what you don’t see” paper to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2020/04/05/sharing-a-neat-statistical-result-from-one-of-nassim-talebs-papers-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:03 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Department of hindsight: the NYT is now blaming mobility. Yet they were publishing crap saying it was not rational to panic when Yaneer, Joe, and I were advocating what looked like an “overreaction”. https://nyti.ms/3bUTtQn   Permalink 5:26 AM – 5 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No soft allowed; hint: you can prove the limit though using special functions. (Please note that I have been blocking those posting snide remarks; this is ONLY for those into these things.) Permalink 6:38 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine Workout pic.twitter.com/OhvzMh32XW Permalink 5:55 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam BMJ published a paper with a basic simple error and incorrect conclusions. I submitted a note but didn’t retract yet. Link to the paper and comment attached. @nntaleb https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sFZj3KWfie”>  pic.twitter.com/sFZj3KWfie Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NickyWill100 @nntaleb’s Grandmother knew that you dummies. https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1246551885621923841   Permalink 2:36 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@NAChristakis People who are dying of COVID19 will need first-rate palliative (hospice) care. This is going to be especially the case for people who are denied ventilators or who are taken off of them (i.e., who are “extubated”). Let’s talk about this painful and poignant fact. 1/ Permalink 2:24 PM – 4 Apr 2020

@tony_zy This @Forbes article on Feb.29, when the virus was quietly spreading, still haunts me today. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/02/29/no-you-do-not-need-face-masks-for-coronavirus-they-might-increase-your-infection-risk/#24bbfdb1676c   Permalink 6:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@HsenAndil She3er Malte 3an l Malte cc: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvpBReQ0MP Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1246331981270593536   Permalink 4:45 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb With (some) corrections pic.twitter.com/psXN7loNHl Permalink 4:28 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This 2 page paper should put the nail in the coffin of “evidence based” science and risk management. Any comments? Posting on ArXiv & looking for a journal as it is a new result in Extreme Value Theory. pic.twitter.com/dAKW7ZVjwx Permalink 3:50 AM – 4 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The most important aspect of fasting is that you feel deep undirected gratitude when you break the fast.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:02 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice summary. https://twitter.com/PoornimaL/status/1246209695745966080   Permalink 4:23 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, on the EXPECTED Maximum (i.e. average maximum), not the Maximum expected. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Be careful. The problem with work related conversations on web apps during this period is that, unlike water cooler schmoozes, everything you say can be recorded for life. Permalink 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM The higher you go the more incompetence/reckelessness (with small exceptions). If this virus ever teaches anything, it is localism. You Your family Your town Your region/county/state Federal Gov: CDC The UN/@WHO Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Surprised? No. Jobless claims has ALWAYS been power law distributed. These idiotic macroeconomists never realized it. As I said in The Black Swan econometricians are charlatans, & will STAY charlatans. My new book SCFT explains in details. pic.twitter.com/OX0IWbgzQU Permalink 7:15 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. Under such fatness of tails for pandemics, policy is made off the expected maximum, not from scenarios devoid of error terms. Just like flood policy in the low countries. See Paper with @DrCirillo https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6   Permalink 5:12 AM – 3 Apr 2020

@johnepattison I mean this sincerely, not snarkily: Smart people I follow here — @nntaleb and @chrismartenson — have been saying for weeks that everyone should be wearing masks. What else are those people saying that we should act on NOW rather waiting until later? Permalink 4:10 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@aPosteriorChain It is now clear that someone at @WHO has a dying wish to be called an imbecile by @nntaleb, this is the only possible explanation pic.twitter.com/PjikwoAcxA Permalink 3:30 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Albert-Laszlo @barabasi was waaaaaaay ahead in determining tail events consistent w/statistics described *ahead* of time –such as cascading failures leading to power outages. I recall the power failure in NY in 2003. You must take him seriously. #PrecautionaryPrinciple https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/1245520814881091584   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vsQSvsT3M3″>  pic.twitter.com/vsQSvsT3M3 Permalink 2:42 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “There is something common to modern “liberal” and Sunni-Salafi education: They teach students answers rather than how to ask questions.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 1:27 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Remember the talk about herd immunity, or letting young people get sick and work? Stopping it fast is the only way. https://twitter.com/barabasi/status/1245520814881091584   Permalink 12:47 PM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The general public is more creative than bureaucrats. https://twitter.com/PLATOheraclitus/status/1245753847362072577?s=20   Permalink 9:44 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb IYI bureaucrats opposed to masks used (bogus) arguments abt the protection of the wearer (“not perfect”, etc.) They didn’t think that since it ALSO prevents (more effectively) ASYMPTOMATIC sick pple from spreading it, there wd be yuuge systemic effect. PS: @WHO is a fraud. Permalink 9:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@allisonpearson Of all the cruel things, the inability to rush to comfort the dying, or to comfort the bereaved after a loved one has died, may be the cruellest. #coronavirus Permalink 9:26 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@swani741 Please get on the case of this bc Pharma & their allies in corporate media are going to do everything in their power to discredit this cheap & widely available drug & anyone being honest about it. . https://www.cbsnews.com/news/merck-created-hit-list-to-destroy-neutralize-or-discredit-dissenting-doctors/   Permalink 8:59 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, an obvious test w/asymmetric signal: How many pple treated for rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, or malaria by a *certain* dosage of chloroquine or hydrochquine have been under ventilation for corona vs rest of local population? Answer wld be a v. strong statistical signal. Permalink 8:05 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@CharlestonArchi After the plague, I hope that @nntaleb will do to charlatanism in academic architecture what he has done to IQ, psychology, social sciences, etc. It would be a joy to watch it unfold here on Twitter. This glorious exchange is from 2018: pic.twitter.com/Cc3SQ4mDQh Permalink 5:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Il revient beaucoup, beaucoup moins cher de fermer ses frontières que de fermer ses: magasins, usines, écoles, bureaux, bordels, restaurants, cafés, stades, salles de dance, facs, glaciers, musées, écoles de ping-pong… https://twitter.com/RomainVallee/status/1245087352961335311   Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb “Govt policy (when dealing with floods or pandemics) is dictated by the expected maxima of the distribution of harm, rather than the mean.” “Evidence-based” methods naively work with the expected mean, not the extremes. (paper agst BS “forecasting”) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4Il3bwOdaF”>  pic.twitter.com/4Il3bwOdaF Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@vtchakarova Yes, more or less. You take the #RWRI pill – you end up in Incerto-land, and Taleb shows you how deep the rabbit hole goes! I am launching our first Vienna #RWRI virtual meeting with the other two RWRI alumni @Arquitect3 and @MrFels this weekend. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/lucklepper/status/1245638289270296577   Permalink 2:14 AM – 2 Apr 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors will BS vend. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1245334867178655745   Permalink 5:04 PM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New version of our paper on the tails of pandemics w/@DrCirillo With a key sentence to understand why epidemiological models become noise –as well as other attempts to forecast outcomes. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cw07iCOyOt”>  pic.twitter.com/Cw07iCOyOt Permalink 10:17 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Follow the money: Many people like @Kevinfolta and this charlatan @dgardner (phil the rat Tetlock’s @Ptetlock coauthor) are directly (or indirectly) paid to say that the Precautionary Principle is crap. https://twitter.com/HomegrownJoan/status/1245355452646506496   Permalink 7:24 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 5) This article makes me shiver, reminds me of the Monsanto days: pharma can BUY science. https://twitter.com/momotchiii/status/1245341089969713152?s=20   Permalink 6:29 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 4) Again the question is WHY did @WHO try to AVOID testing something yet claim “data is sparce”. You test PRECISELY because data is sparce! https://twitter.com/aknappjr/status/1245337709897322496?s=20   Permalink 6:21 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) Now we still DON’T KNOW YET if chloroquine helps, but owing to an asymmetry I would pick it over nothing any minute. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Even in St Georges Hospital in Lebanon they get stuff like this. In NY and Italy, doctors are ignoring “official” guidelines & applying the Raoult therapy early on. Note: Raoult knows his stuff about patients/treatment, not the dynamics of epidemics. pic.twitter.com/V8sTAdXugz Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@nntaleb SUSPICIOUS: + Why the WHO bias against masks & Chloroquine? Latter used by doctors in NY, Italy (combination) in early stages. + Why the smear campaign ag. Raoult? He is the most cited viologist + Recall statistical BS in Forbes/Bloomberg + Pharma shut down a factory in France pic.twitter.com/5O9DD2x36N Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@VergilDen It’s during these times of crisis that it’s good to remind yourself of those simpler days. For me, the time when Taleb and I sampled all the goodness that is Italy. I will always savor those days like one does a fine lemoncello. Gindon! https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1112642427192393729   Permalink 4:11 AM – 1 Apr 2020

@Samuel_NET @nntaleb has been saying this all along. WHO was wrong. https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1244993914962051072   Permalink 8:01 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@RomainVallee 21/02 dans LePoint. Nassim Taleb conseillant à la France de fermer immédiatement ses frontières . https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1230878610023731202?s=21   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1230878610023731202   Permalink 1:35 PM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb People can MAKE their own mask. Do not insult the public’s intelligence. https://twitter.com/RinaldoDaCosta/status/1245034220470362113?s=20   Permalink 10:17 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 850,000 now https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1231770358753173505   Permalink 10:04 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Surgeon General should be sued. We will have plenty of time to bring these dangerous idiots to account. https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/1244957027585134592   Permalink 10:02 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@Allvvaro Absolutely loving them while in quarantine. I don’t know why I waited so long to start reading them, but it feels like de f****** right time now. Gracias @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ll0WJ2jged Permalink 9:51 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Serge Galam too; he is angry, very angry https://www.liberation.fr/debats/2020/03/24/masques-mais-de-qui-se-moque-t-on_1782908   via @libe Permalink 8:40 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry: error FROM NOT wearing masks is vastly costlier than the error FROM wearing masks. This would be elementary for grandmothers (decision makers under uncertainty) but something about the @WHO & the @CDCgov w/”evidence based” BS is suspiciously blind to such a notion! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1244975847855054850   Permalink 6:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now I am not saying that masks work there, rather that owing to an asymmetry you MUST wear one. Decision-making in real life is based on asymmetries. That’s the entire message of the Incerto! Permalink 6:12 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is the strongest statistical association I’ve seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. PS-Don’t get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask in N95 https://twitter.com/Jonn__Mc/status/1244957684820070402   Permalink 5:05 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Make your own mask, but be careful. It is more effective than nothing, but not as much as an N95. Never leave home without it. PS: the @WHO is a fraud. https://nyti.ms/3bBlyw4   Permalink 4:54 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan https://youtu.be/Tb2pXXUSzmI   via @YouTube Permalink 4:16 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein What is with you? Why don’t you say it: it’s a prisoner’s dilemma because you and the rest of our leadership failed. Your failure means that we the public should take care of our medical heroes by not buying scarce masks while you do whatever it is you do all day with WHO & CDC. https://twitter.com/surgeon_general/status/1244744427735781377   Permalink 1:25 AM – 31 Mar 2020

@iulian_v7 Attended full RWRI twice. It paid off on multiple levels. Here’s one: my portfolio performance during this crisis vs. S&P500. So, RWRI & @nntaleb books are a great investment. Will go there for the 3rd time for sure, and 4th, 5th… pic.twitter.com/bTSvNQm56M Permalink 5:54 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The @WHO shd be renamed WDO (World Disease Organization): had they not existed many lives would have been spared. Friends are smelling conspiracy in WHO’s claims (“evidence based”conflation of absence of evidence for evidence). No, it’s only incompetence. Criminal incompetence. Permalink 5:31 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Everybody comments on my ideas, nobody seems to care that I’ve lost weight (in spite of quarantine)! https://twitter.com/chasechandler/status/1244661425148133380   Permalink 3:51 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @BloombergTV @ErikSchatzker #tailrisk #insurance #keepyourhouse https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/taleb-says-it-s-too-late-for-tail-risk-hedging-slams-stimulus   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DKfmtN7uYZ”>  pic.twitter.com/DKfmtN7uYZ Permalink 2:53 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is spin: WHO is a very incompetent org. Prevented masks & were 5 steps behind. Can’t get risk asymmetry! Stat ignorant WHO now trying to do complicated “science” & degrading simple chloroquine in spite of of huge signal, using “dble blind” buzzwords. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments?fbclid=IwAR31YwxhsKm4zHtCC6RazpsqCVrAMO_mY3UUre_iyd7hiuF0_YklhwvH1NE#   Permalink 12:08 PM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The PDF version is free and available here. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 10:27 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The book is finally on Amazon. Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemolog… https://www.amazon.com/dp/1544508050/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_3PIGEb0XVZ6ZE   via @amazon Permalink 10:21 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@Stephen89756302 @nntaleb on a personal note, thanks: I was in Singapore when they had 14 cases, UK when they had 1, wore masks in public, didn’t check a bag, ate in hotel, self-isolation on return to US. Saw the power of your model, listened, took action for self and others. Bless you. Permalink 10:19 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@EricRWeinstein Can we get a list of the officials, leaders, institutions & spokespeople who are consciously lying about “masks not being effective in the general population” to hide their own failure to stock masks, and thus pushing our health care professionals in front of this viral train? Permalink 10:07 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA models Models count # people dead and # people infected. They miss a central point: 1)~10-20% of those who get it are spending time in HELL yet w/o qualifying for hospitalization as they don’t need a ventilator. 2) We don’t know the long term reduction in LE from sequels! Permalink 6:15 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNG VENTILATORS & INTERMITTENCE Where varying the intensity saves lives: my paper in mathematical medicine “Convex Responses in Medicine” showing the effects of intermittence were well documented w/ventilators (Jensen’s Inequ.). Also in #Antifragile. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZjjOB0F5vO”>  pic.twitter.com/ZjjOB0F5vO Permalink 5:50 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@TommyCaillat 6ème relecture de L’Incerto en cours. Ce confinement est une aubaine si on en prends l’avantage. Lisez. Faites de l’exercise. Prenez le soleil. Mangez correctement. Pas d’excuses. @nntaleb @Mangan150 pic.twitter.com/7XE3KBGgBC Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Factoid of the day: The Montgomerys have the (Phoenician) J2 haplogroup (J2a1-Y22056 (aka Z40262)). @felhagehistoire https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/montgomery/about/background   https://twitter.com/Normandy_Post/status/1244576461882822657   Permalink 5:34 AM – 30 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 This is what @nntaleb calls the Ludic Fallacy. These guys either did experiments in the class room or in their minds. What they are saying are FAR from the reality. At least from my experience in China, NOBODY had this false feeling of protection while wearing the masks. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/c0uQCdksPv Permalink 7:31 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@jeitoapp Who the fuck needs a scientific paper to know that wearing a mask is better than not wearing one during a global pandemic? Is the world dumber than what I thought? https://twitter.com/jcastros/status/1244350023690747908   Permalink 1:37 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Don Bosco Ioannis Damakenos (John of Damascus) Imam Ali Socrates Thomas Aquinas https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1244342447276281856   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2020

@NonMeek When you’re right, you’re right. https://twitter.com/iridiumideas/status/1244322903685910529   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kb12JxR71b”>  pic.twitter.com/Kb12JxR71b Permalink 11:29 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t do interviews anymore (not my job). But newspapers narrate the twitter feed. Works. https://www.rt.com/uk/484430-taleb-let-branson-virgin-airline-go-bust/   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Mask tutorial courtesy of @who https://twitter.com/ghosh121/status/1244266295060647938   Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Just to piss off @WHO #NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/SZpAiyjX3y Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ask for 5, settle for 3 (but don’t tell anyone yet!) https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1244095809592926208   Permalink 6:51 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Mayor of Amioun: on the other side of the Med, very diplomatic. pic.twitter.com/AJ6M9rsq5E Permalink 6:42 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism! https://twitter.com/MarinaStavrou9/status/1244161012833583104   Permalink 6:32 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters Different countries are at different stages in the pandemic, and under different levels of stress currently. That allows a little bit of load sharing. Germany responded early, e.g. the labs prepared for mass testing in January when the virus was sequenced in China. Permalink 4:27 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In the absence of further information, there is no downside to such strategy. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1244118720932446211   Permalink 4:15 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@sarah_cone ⁦@nntaleb⁩ has been saying this for only a few decades at least. https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/27/economic-efficiency-resilience-coronavirus/?outputType=amp   Permalink 2:23 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@MarinaStavrou9 I need to watch this again.. I need Italian Mayors to sort you ALL out the world needs Italian Mayors to sort the world out not passionless journos & clueless academics.. pic.twitter.com/yk7MES3KLG Permalink 12:14 AM – 29 Mar 2020

@Gh0xuLZHXdi3LEf Μένουμε σπίτι. pic.twitter.com/Wdeeh7478e Permalink 6:57 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@naval WHO isn’t going to warn you. CDC isn’t going to test you. FDA isn’t going to cure you. FEMA isn’t going to feed you. Save yourself. Permalink 2:54 PM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@ElegantiaeArbit That feel when @nntaleb and co have been issuing better, more accurate, more consistent advice for several months than the CDC, WHO, et cetera https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841   Permalink 11:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Die Corona-Pandemie ist kein schwarzer Schwan: Warum 2020 nach Nassim Nicholas Taleb nicht mit 2008 zu vergleichen ist https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/kein-schwarzer-schwan-nassim-taleb-ueber-die-corona-pandemie-ld.1548877?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=Twitter   via @NZZ Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@amconmag Comparative advantage, the philosophical basis of free trade, works, if by “works” you mean “maximizes efficiency at the expense of redundancy and anti-fragility.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-didnt-we-test-our-trades-antifragility-before-covid-19/   Permalink 9:45 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With Branson the problem is compounded: + He is a tax refugee: he lives in the BVI & since UK has no worldwide taxation, pays no taxes. Yets wants the UK taxpayer’s backstop. + He walks around virtue-faking with TED/Davos crowd. Let him go bust. Planes will fly w/new owners! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1243657604234166275   Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism doesn’t mean total anarchy for communes to do what they want. It is fractal (multiscale), but w/maximal control at the bottom. Localism allows central government to impose interzones lockdowns, but towns can shut themselves if they wish (Italian cities during plague). https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1243896621265498114   Permalink 7:24 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The worst in the hall of shame is @CassSunstein who represents all that’s evil in the IYIs: he pathologizes cautious people by finding some… disorder He wanted the Obama admin to manipulate pple away from their caution against GMOs by hiding labels. https://twitter.com/AriSchulman/status/1243502730200653826?s=20   Permalink 7:15 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@Nlitsardopoulos The point of NNT is that of scale and acceleration. E.g the time it took a boat to get from Crimea to Genoa in 14th century, compared to the time it took an airplane to get from London to New York. Permalink 6:39 AM – 28 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ordered masks on Amazon 2 weeks ago. The seller decided to not charge me. Will send money to rescue efforts as it is unfair for me to benefit from my media presence, particularly that it relates to the corona hedging. pic.twitter.com/TYmWOR8XGs Permalink 4:07 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is largely for the sake of these airlines that governments did not stop traffic from China. Now taxpayers need to bail them out, spending trillions. Penny wise, Trillions of dollars foolish. pic.twitter.com/3xj5mrlDgc Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I immediately smelled a rat with 10 Downing when I was told their chief advisor was using, liking, or doing something with @PTetlock’s “Superforecasters”. I realized he must be a BS vendor/IYI. Turned out he was. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 12:39 PM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “Life is long gamma”, RIP Anthony Glickman https://twitter.com/DaliaGlickman/status/1243596854799077381   Permalink 10:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It is common for people like Fauci to know their stuff, but to not understand risk of events. Same with epidemiologists as we saw. The carpenter fallacy: to get an ideas about probabilities of tail sequences at roulette, hire a probabilist not a carpenter. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/CathyYoung63/status/1243471230809800706   Permalink 10:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Meds & Anatolians refer to themselves via patronymic up to one generation (ides,akis,ian,ben,etc.), like N. Europeans (sson), but some strange villages go matronymic: Jean de Florette (Provence)… Or Kousba, Lebanon: my name there is “Nassim Minerva”, driver:”Michel Rosa”, etc. Permalink 10:13 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@jamesaknight Fair play to them – Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and Chris Whitty have clearly read this tweet and delivered… #skininthegame https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238455607717486592   Permalink 9:33 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@churchesuncut Corporations have figured out that politicians are cheaper to buy than insurance #nnt Permalink 9:30 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/2QFx3uiL94   Permalink 9:21 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb An interesting regularity. Greeks refer to name and place of origin, even in Levant (Athenadoros of Berytus, Lukianos of Emesa,… , Shmokron of Alexandria) S Semitic speakers refer to their ancestors: Jehoshua bn X bn X bn X bn David… As in the Bible you get long genealogy! https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1243558074356563975   Permalink 8:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@RepThomasMassie (10/11) This stimulus should go straight to the people rather than being funneled through banks and corporations like this bill is doing. Permalink 8:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 13: How many generations of your family can you count back? This #Safaitic inscription contains a genealogy of 20 generations. Assuming a generation = 20 years, this author knew the names of his ancestors going back 400 years! A thread on his lineage. pic.twitter.com/sCsEgWI4OR Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@normonics Libertarians dont get liberty It’s not about doing whatever the f you want despite how it impacts others It’s doing whatever the f you want CONDITIONAL on not harming others https://twitter.com/FreeStateNH/status/1243386499657154560   Permalink 8:10 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR Blocking idiots on Twitter after telling them “I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots” “Sorry, I block idiots, nothing personal” is not a violation of Twitter’s terms of service (& the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany). pic.twitter.com/kXRnwFkrES Permalink 6:27 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Before weightlifting, or course. https://twitter.com/MasaSkiba/status/1243265676158160896   Permalink 5:57 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few people know that Boris Johnson is Turkish on his paternal side: his grandfather Osman Kemal became “Wilfred Johnson”. Hence most likely the East Med J2 haplogroup… https://twitter.com/EastMedMonitor/status/1243521365958934530   Permalink 5:56 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb It was NOT a 30 sigma. Anyone using sigma in economics is a fraud. pic.twitter.com/P4eKmf1dsX Permalink 5:50 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, if after that jobless claims number anyone still uses macroeconomic tools w/”variance” “standard deviation”, “kurtosis” etc. should be arrested. I said in The Black Swan & next textbook (Chap 3) that economists are frauds. This is the PROOF before the last move. pic.twitter.com/Q3o6SwPbk9 Permalink 5:48 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect (both from me and from our common friend in the South East) https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1243241516740407296   Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@FattestFatTony Fat Tony don’t believe much in conspiracy theories. Why? The “geniuses” at the top have proven time and time again they’re too stupid to pull anyting that elaborate off… https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@AviSolomon8 @chrislhayes @bruces The Greeks have not forgotten the lessons of history… pic.twitter.com/FjKqUtSQa7 Permalink 3:07 AM – 27 Mar 2020

@MasaSkiba “You cannot hedge the risk of epidemics, unless you stop airplanes from flying.” @nntaleb May 19, 2010. pic.twitter.com/LRq1UTCA8k Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friendship and enmity are both path dependent. Former friends (rats) are permanent enemies & former enemies are permanent friends. “I treat my friends as temporary pre-enemies, my enemies as temporary pre-friends, & my post-friends as permanent enemies.” Bed of Procrustes Permalink 12:04 PM – 26 Mar 2020

@PZalloua We need to know how the virus is spreading in the community and who is more likely to spread it? The more we know the better we can prevent @yaneerbaryam @nntaleb @normonics pic.twitter.com/Sm35nQxk1x Permalink 8:32 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Gods watch over our BSBPB (BS Busting Probabilist Brigade, includes the anti-naive-probabilism school of @HarryDCrane, the ergodic one of @ole_b_peters, and many more): Flawed paper by nudge IYI @CassSunstein had 107 dowloads in 6 months (Compared to 10K-100K for us). pic.twitter.com/ee4obXhV1f Permalink 7:01 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/2QFx3uiL94   Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Friends, my twitter feed has become a Real World Twitter Institute (nod to Nassim). Decided to chronicle this entrepreneurial journey in crisis distribution filling a supply gap. Yes, we make money but challenges pop up daily. Permalink 4:51 AM – 26 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I just published Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You https://link.medium.com/3h53P88H94   Permalink 5:16 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@normonics pic.twitter.com/Wgi8nG23A3 Permalink 5:13 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Forbes’ @tarahaelle wrote “showed no significant difference in outcomes between those who received the drug & those who received usual care.” In other words: “showed no significant difference in outcomes FOR THOSE WHO DID NOT NEED IT” since those they are discussing were CURED Permalink 4:59 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Let me explain why Forbes’s @tarahaelle & Bloomberg’s @Business are making a statistical fraud concerning chloroquine: + You NEVER look for people who healed on their own on BOTH sides: 14 pple who recovered w/& 14 pple w/o Cloroquine tell you NOTHING about the drug. Fraudsters https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242788451986128899   Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@IvanBlecic @nntaleb, @yaneerbaryam & the gang won this debate. There’s an expression in Italian: “la merda viene a galla”. Fascinating the sheer SPEED w/ which BS has been detected in the last 2 months. Wld’ve taken years (if ever), dismantled one after another, in nifty 3-days instalments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242794290746703874   Permalink 1:26 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is Fake News, Statistically. Forbes should remove https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/03/25/chloroquine-use-for-covid-19-shows-no-benefit-in-first-small-but-limited-controlled-trial/#323249324c86   Permalink 1:12 PM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates. https://twitter.com/predragbrajovic/status/1242860576742821889   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Localism du Jour Many Italian towns survived the Plague by closing their gates. https://twitter.com/PredragBrajovic/status/1242860576742821889   Permalink 10:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@phl43 pic.twitter.com/d2Ihcvc2Pt Permalink 9:59 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY & ASYMMETRY Let me make my point clear. Does Chloroquine work? I am not sure. But…if infected & very sick, would I take Chloroquine? 100% Yes. In the right dosage: it has been around for decades & we know its side effect & drug interactions. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242788451986128899   Permalink 9:35 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel If I had to read just two paragraphs of @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb’s op-ed in the UK, this would be it. But you have an extra two minutes, so you should read the whole thing: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jUlsZjjV0O”>  pic.twitter.com/jUlsZjjV0O Permalink 9:14 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@drjamesdinic 500 patients in northern Italy are starting to breathe thanks to hacked scuba gear, modified with 3D printers. #COVIDー19 solutions! https://www.google.com/amp/s/dgiluz.wordpress.com/2020/03/23/its-working/amp/   @joerogan Permalink 8:02 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine wants to lecture live on social media while writing equations on a classroom blackboard. Any tripod with remote ctrl (for Iphone 11) that you recommend? Permalink 8:01 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-17   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ @DrCirillo & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I’ve seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-17   Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@TaroniAndrea When all this is over, @nntaleb will still be an asshole. But he will also still have been right. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242794290746703874   Permalink 6:33 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) In other words: Compare # of people who don’t recover but received Chloroquine to # people who don’t recover and receive nothing. Bloomberg should not be spreading this dangerous BS! Permalink 5:46 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t | Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statistical flaw in the conclusion: That study says almost NOTHING about Chloroquine. The comparison now is conditioned on BOTH being cured. You need cases without spontaneous recovery, such as Reault’s. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study   via @business Permalink 5:20 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@Jaffer22915438 1/ Do you realize how f*cked up this system is to have someone like me up-fronting millions of dollars to bring masks into the US. 3 weeks ago, I did not know an N95 mask from a dust mask. Not a saint, please. We will make money, but the system is dysfunctional. Permalink 4:17 AM – 25 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Statesman. https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242479407031296000   Permalink 12:56 PM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb With @DrCirillo. Forgot to thank @BertZwart1 Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases: Clearly a steep power law. You need vigilance. Complicated epidemiological models are like studies of forks and knives on the Titanic. https://www.academia.edu/42307438/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases   via @academia Permalink 10:08 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Respect https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1242469195410894849   Permalink 9:59 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beats the NY library… pic.twitter.com/MEgjh3uCbs Permalink 8:44 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 A beautiful application of the shadow mean method on pandemics ( It allows you to derive the expected value when the fat tailed distribution is bounded, in this case, by human population on earth ). I was impressed by this method when @nntaleb and @DrCirillo discussed it at #rwri https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1242443727366479874   Permalink 8:27 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And trading, of course. Permalink 8:11 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Math, Twitter, and weightlifting. Same time. Thanks, @GrantSSC for help. pic.twitter.com/DdBk31H6yo Permalink 7:52 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Our fat tails paper shd limit these models for entertainment only pic.twitter.com/ZVIZYPkmPy Permalink 7:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is a preview of the paper with @DrCirillo: contagious pandemics are fat tailed. Anyone using epidemiological model is like someone counting spoons on the Titanic. pic.twitter.com/HvJfJWL6zJ Permalink 6:30 AM – 24 Mar 2020

@nntaleb makeshift… Was not a pun but a genuine typo. Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grant @GrantSSC is starting to make lemon out of lemonade, like @Jaffer22915438: delivering makeshit weightlifting equipment to people stuck at home. https://twitter.com/bmiloy/status/1242250956705681408   Permalink 6:01 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson from a long experience with model blowups:@neil_ferguson, if you need a model w/”thousands of lines”, this is not a model useable for real world risk & decisions–rather something with the FRAGILITY of a house built with matches to impress some tenure committee. https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713   Permalink 4:43 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb localism at its best https://twitter.com/AndrewCesare/status/1242174265547468803   Permalink 2:04 PM – 23 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Do you know how to sew? Make masks for hospitals, nursing homes, rehab facilities, or yourself. Here is information how. Spread the word https://necsi.edu/sewing-masks   Permalink 9:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANCIENT LANGUAGES DU JOUR Karshum(Kirsh), pum (temm/famm), 3inum, appum(aff, anf), uznum (udn, dayné) are preserved. Interesting: birkum BRK=> RKB (rekbé), tikkum maybe ta2m (to cover neck?) and most interesting: puridum => fard (single) https://twitter.com/mynemosyne54/status/1242061284704690177   Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One small problem. It is currently in the nation state of Turkey. https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1242010478693490688   Permalink 8:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I don’t lift. I just hoard plates as a hobby. https://twitter.com/hoody_pl/status/1242100556883165186?s=20   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bought more plates, just in case. pic.twitter.com/LLuiUuzNX1 Permalink 7:33 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Now this correlation is a correlation. Remove points and it stays the same. It may tell us however, that richer countries tend to test more, or that people travel much more into and out of richer countries. Check a network graph. https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1241850312203415552   Permalink 5:12 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@mynemosyne54 Body parts in Akkadian pic.twitter.com/9OxNApddOk Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@cdipaola62 WHO finally has “data” Universal Precautions for Respiratory/Droplet borne viruses has been warranted since outbreak When uncertain—>act with Precaution ⁦@endCOVID ⁦@nntaleb⁩ ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ ⁦@normonics⁩ ⁦@TuckerCarlson⁩ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html   Permalink 1:41 AM – 23 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Too late, De Blasio. You need to be one step ahead, not three steps behind. https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/1241885799525875712   Permalink 5:59 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@birdxi1988 We need to “overreact” to fight the virus, this doesn’t look like that @trishankkarthik @normonics @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1241860593751113732   Permalink 5:33 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@LorenzoWVilla Do you want to try this one? For (a,b,c) real and positive pic.twitter.com/1nUUz3jvu2 Permalink 2:37 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something standard Libertarians don’t get (but localists get very well): liberty & threats to others don’t scale the way they think they do. Libertarians need to translate threats to individuals into threats to the collective without naive linear scaling. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239243622916259841   Permalink 2:36 PM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb To relax during the quarantine https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1241300006939713537   Permalink 11:06 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/YWc5xAt7rc Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 6) Saying “it is nobody’s fault” hence let’s help corps is vicious: risk management=cash to face eventualities WITHOUT knowing what they WILL BE: we have 2 kidneys SO we don’t have to predict how they one will be harmed. Except that a pandemic is NOT a Black Swan. (INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/YWc5xAt7rc Permalink 10:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | Evidence-based science | inspired by @nntaleb Support my work https://gumroad.com/offshorecomic   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240641133820207104   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240714702281306117   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JggQip7c4x”>  pic.twitter.com/JggQip7c4x Permalink 9:56 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Commentary: “Few solid” I meant “a few solid” (i.e. sufficient to show Harry doesn’t just publish to gain status). Soon we will see the end of pseudo-credentalization/academic poseur. Permalink 9:01 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb THE END OF CITATION RINGS Harry Crane, probabilist (mathematical stat),knows his shit. Few solid publications, 350 citations. David Spiegelhalter,”statistician” 100s of pubs, Member of prestigious societies, 111,000 citations. Watch Harry take Spiegelhalter to the cleaners. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1241748419879763968   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5p2qyRTnRD”>  pic.twitter.com/5p2qyRTnRD Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. pic.twitter.com/lH9N1dur58 Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) CEOs of bailed out companies must disburse PAST bonuses. Facing the GBRT (Generalized Bob Rubin Trade) where someone has a free option. pic.twitter.com/lH9N1dur58 Permalink 8:31 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This result is very robust. Paper posted soon. As probabilist @BertZwart1 (specialist in Extreme Value Theory) observes, this is the result of parameter stochasticity in the SIR model. Making parameters deterministic is what was incompetent in the UK government model. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1241451807907491845   Permalink 7:47 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I was actually teasing them. A more “elegant” tweet would have been: “It says a lot about them, but also something about you”. Permalink 6:49 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) The shareholder should not never end up being rewarded for lack of hedging/insurance. He/she should go first. https://twitter.com/nikola_sock/status/1241704778671013888?s=20   Permalink 5:45 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb When your archenemies give you praise, it says something about them, but also a lot about you. https://twitter.com/hlithskjolf/status/1241672103931326464   Permalink 5:43 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I’ve learned from a long life that someone close to you with a gun can be controlled if you are trained; worry about someone with a knife. https://twitter.com/digvijoy_c/status/1241550485762592769   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) Airlines/Boeing are lobbying for bailouts, which they will get. How about the small corner restaurant? The independent tour guide? The personal trainer? The prostitute? The barber? The hotdog vendor living from tourists near the Met Museum? Last time (2008) they were ignored. Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA: pic.twitter.com/2WPkzAcjxA Permalink 5:21 AM – 22 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explain to me why we should spent taxpayer money to bailout companies (airlines) who spent their cash buying their own stock so the CEO gets optionality, instead of having a crisis buffer. We should bail out individuals based on needs, not corporations. #Moralhazard Permalink 6:21 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Many people stock up on pasta. Others on toilet papers. Some go for wine. And some people stock up on Olympic weight plates. pic.twitter.com/bJq3KsQmch Permalink 5:33 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thankful to @SamHarrisOrg. The problemo is too big to worry about personal enmities. https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg/status/1239267580755365888   Permalink 5:26 PM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ In other words, these people MUST have something in common that makes them susceptible to the virus: 4 is too yuuuge to be dismissed as a coincidence. (Conditional probabilities are low for healthy and young, so a few draws are <10^-4). Hidden comorbidity is too explanatory. Permalink 12:55 PM – 21 Mar 2020