Skip to content

TECHNICAL INCERTO, Dawkins, Haass, Friedman, Zakaria, Alexander Bogomolny, GMOs, Ron Paul, Soccer | Twitter

@financequant “I believe that we should read only those books that wound and stab us. If a book we are reading does not rouse us with a blow to the head, then why read it? A book must be the axe for the frozen sea inside us.”–Franz Kafka Permalink 2:43 PM – 20 Jul 2018

@NebojsaMalic You BOMBED Montenegro in 1999 as commander of NATO, you nitwit.   Permalink 10:43 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This time on ….phenomenology! The cartoonist is good but doesn’t get that weightlifters are NOT thin in the waist.   Permalink 6:57 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Since I am typesetting, we have aesthetic questions. Is the format I use for my own books OK? Or fixing the Maestro’s own original fonts?   Please let me know. Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) (Ppple involved: @MarcosCarreira @gcfr20 @mikeandallie @octonion @SvetlanaBogom13 ) My feeling is: we do not need to complete many tutorial appendices since these are standard: pple find them on the web just as they did to solve pblms. (for instance I don’t use one for mine) Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) BOGOMOLNY FRIDAY SYMPOSIUM Alex left us 13 days ago. I have the PDF of the @CutTheKnotMath’s book Probability Riddles; working on completing it posthumously. Need comments on these sections (pics).   @republicofmath @ProbFact @octonion @erugli ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yarmouk is where the Byzantines lost the battle to the Arabs 13C ago. The new Byzantium has some work to do.   Permalink 8:43 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He came to talk population genetics/probability. I took him to the gym instead and forced him to deadlift. He had never done it before. He is very confused about the visit.   Permalink 3:51 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Never ever criticize anyone (say a politician) for doing something that you would be silent about if someone else did it. You would be insulting your audience, insulting truth, insulting the medium you are using, insulting ethics. Permalink 11:38 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved…   Permalink 11:03 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yes the seeds of skin in the game in 2002: never read anything on doing by nondoers.   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So the TECHNICAL INCERTO is online: VOL1- The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails   VOL2- Convexity, Risk, and Fragility (in progress)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:01 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Congrats to @BakhtadzeMamuka for becoming Prime Minister of Georgia, and indeed, let Georgia, the root of Europe and the Mediterranean (i.e. Western Eurasia), become part of modern-day Europe via cultural and economic integration.   Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb My point is: That highly unrigorous science journalist @RichardDawkins can say “Listen I would like to preserve my culture” without insulting other people’s aesthetics. Permalink 5:35 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Note: This is not for my benefit but a public service warning –since I will never set foot there. (Nor was I financially hurt since I was the guest at a business dinner.) Permalink 7:08 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I spent my childhood in the Christian neighborhood in Beirut listening to both the bells (older churches than Dawkins’) and the muezzin in the distance. It taught me that tolerance is when you get that: The Other likes the aesthetics of his rituals as much as you do yours.   Permalink 6:54 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Is it against NYC law to refuse to serve tap water? (Some pple have a rule to never drink nonlocal water) Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Nusr-Et in NY. Never ever again. They don’t even serve local tap water. Overrrrrrrrrrpriced. Permalink 4:21 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@JeanMessiha En Algérie, des femmes bravent l’obscurantisme avec la modernité du bikini ; en France, des femmes bravent la modernité avec l’obscurantisme du burkini…   Permalink 11:51 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This is hilarious. Every time someone (of the type to live with their mother at age 52) tells me that “Trump is dumb”…   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@DaxThoughts Nothing makes me (1) feel worse about myself (2) want to learn a ton of information NOW, Than reading @nntaleb’s papers It’s an extremely humbling process. Permalink 4:18 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And they are still not getting why this “evidence” is pseudoscience.   Permalink 4:12 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The thread explains why most of the papers with “empirical evidence” using “correlations” and “p-values” are BS. Actually, in some fields, almost all papers are BS but you need to look deep into the statistics. The p-value hacking paper:   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2018

@CeddChad Courtesans and Fishcakes opened my eyes to Med culture and how we Northerners are so different. Yours has been the only reference I have ever seen to it. Permalink 11:34 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Journos thrive on wars and tensions (like the press magnate in the Bond movie who fomented wars to sell papers) (Asymmetric payoff: they don’t bear the costs, particularly if harm is in foreign countries) Regular citizens don’t care about geopolitics.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And prosperity is best achieved by preventing bureaucrats from interfering with things they will never understand. Permalink 9:50 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that the job of the government is to deliver Peace and Prosperity. Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@marcus_minus Espèce de charlatan incompétent… je vous invite à lire @nntaleb avant de dire de tels conneries. Et dire que nous avons des cancres comme vs pour parler de transhumanisme, d’OGM et d’investissement d’avenir. #charlatan Permalink 7:00 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Based on the reactions, the definition of a “dictator with divergent values” is someone who does not buy weapons from U.S. based arms manufacturers. Permalink 8:06 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@daniel_bilar Pre-asymptotics & fat tails: Operational & heuristic metrics to compare n-summed independent vars under all distributions w finite first moment by @nntaleb   [“how much data one needs to make meaningful statements”, ‘speed’ of the law of large numbers] ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:39 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 This is getting ridiculous. What a day. Share values ? I didn’t see you complaining when he sword danced in #Saudi   Permalink 3:59 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It took 5 volumes to get the main point: “The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty about what one should do about it.” Permalink 1:53 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One is allowed to reveal the low IQ of these pseudo-experts s.a. @RichardHaass, @tomfriedman or @FareedZakaria is because, while clueless abt complex interactions & basic properties, they feel empowered to lecture others on what to do. They shd driving Ubers not more. Permalink 12:01 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Actually excellent partying as preliminary preparation to the theorezing. Permalink 11:49 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The main problem that plague GMO idiots is that they don’t get that 1) interractions in an environment are not predictable 2) that they NEED to be predicted (no organism is isolated)   Permalink 11:07 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Surprised?   Permalink 10:23 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Promoting the ideas of Jane Jacobs (and her books) on organic urbanism —with Minister @HardeepSPuri in charge of building tens of millions of homes in the next 5 years. Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb To have a real “deep state” you need the intelligence of a Professor Moriarty or the craftiness of a Colbert. Not a collection of hand-to-mouth bureaucrats. Gabish? Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One lesson from recent militarism: 1- There may exist ~a “deep state”, but it isn’t organized, rather a spontaneous league of useful idiots 2- The most representative is that *low-IQ BS Vendor*, @RichardHaass, so you can see it’s composed of real losers   Permalink 6:16 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Like Saudi Arabia.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends; now the question is whether to use Roman or “Arabic” (Indian) numerals. Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@Jaffer22915438 One last tweet before I do something more useful. Flashback to when right wingnuts called Reagan a “Useful Idiot” for meeting with Soviet Union…today, Democrats assuming posture:   Permalink 4:19 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Needs to be random. Like IRS audits.   Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Make sure your income does not depend on your reputation. 2) Find 4-5 perpetrators and hound them for the rest of their life. Particularly 4 years later when they expect it the least. 3) Let others see what you are doing to the few smearers. Example   Permalink 12:53 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In the past, the weapons industry would have right wing warmongers shill for them & perpetuate states of bellicosity. They got smarter. They now enlist shills who managed to label themselves on the “left”. Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) And no, @elonmusk/@Tesla are not fully antifragile: they depends on shareholders, which is the reason smear campaigns are active. They are directed at the shareholders. But they can show evidence of smear campaign (there is) using my Tesla/NonTesla test. Permalink 7:55 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The principle in Fooled by Randomness is that we react to 1st order; we are manipulated into seeing events separated from statistical context. For instance: my discipline every time I hear Trump did smthing cruel (e.g. children) to check if NonTrump did same. (Obama did). Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Thread: @ElonMusk, victim of a smear campaign. + @Tesla car catches fire. Nobody reports on >150K yearly nonTesla cars fires? + Musk took public $, not great (returned). How about OTHER companies that got pub. $$? + Musk “is a billionaire”. How abt other billionaires?   Permalink 7:46 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb cc:@HardeepSPuri   Permalink 7:15 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 6) Diplomats and politicians with no SITG cause more trouble than they solve with things like Israel/Palestine and Syria. Taleb thinks that people with SITG care more about having good food, drink, and weather at their family parties than geopolitics or grand principles: no SITG Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 1) Recently finished @nntaleb’s Skin in the Game. Like others (@naval) who have had their worldviews shifted by Taleb’s writings on probability, randomness, and society in general, SITG changed how I think about numerous parts of the economy and society. Some takeaways: Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 14 problems coming from the misunderstanding of fat tails by professional statisticians/quants/economists etc. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One of the last pictures of Maestro, birdwatching (courtesy: his niece). Permalink 6:18 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb SUMMARY OF THE BOOK A statistician: Of course we understand fat tails. The author: No you don’t. Permalink 2:42 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INTERDICTS A passage in The Black Swan about how grandmother elephants have authority… A senator is literally an aged person… Permalink 10:34 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking pple who nitpick aphorisms as if they were literal scientific claims; some call them “gross generalization”; some even complain that there is no backup… Since I’ve been doing it, the quality of my feed/discussions improved considerably. #ViaNegativa   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So for the nomenclatura, ageism is not bigotry (check w/intellectual fraudster @NickCohen4). Aside from selective bigoteering, they haven’t yet discovered that respect for the elder if shared by practically every civilization (Meds, Semites, Chinese,…) for #LindyEffect   Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters This problem dedicated to the Memory of our friend Alexander Bogomolny. @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb What identity activists & the Stalinist pol police are doing to us is making us see someone as “person from race/gender/orientation (X,Y,Z)” instead of just seeing “Joe”, “Wang”or “Cunégonde”. Nothing short of alienation. #AbstractUniversalism is the arch-enemy of humanism. Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Jul 2018

@Mehdi_IR_DC It’s so funny to see “progressive” ppl being offended by Trump “disrespecting” the Queen; the very person who believes she is superior than the rest cuz of her blood. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The “Black” Kazars the “Northern” Kazars? Avoid confusion. For discussion: @peterfrankopan @GhassanDahhan   Permalink 10:14 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Question: Is there a reason I did not lose followers? Is the process still going? Permalink 6:40 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For Christmas, a formal edition of the INCERTO (gold leaf etc.). Now 5 volumes. Now working on the (so far) 2 volumes of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. Permalink 6:11 AM – 12 Jul 2018

@nntaleb While the business of historians is faithful description of the past, @peterfrankopan specializes in faithful descriptions of the future.   Permalink 1:44 PM – 11 Jul 2018

@RonPaul *Special Announcement* Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) To Speak At Ron Paul Institute Conference 2018!! Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@SS_strength “My understanding of this concept has improved, thanks to my friend Nassim Nicholas Taleb, so I thought I’d share it with you.”   Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Oh my Baal! Chased my Monsanto!   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@black_swan_man Page 5… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture #grassfed Permalink 8:53 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it. Permalink 5:45 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@mikeandallie (2/4) It is memorable not just for being a good problem but also for illustrating the amazing interaction between Bogomolny and Nassim Taleb. Taleb’s approach always got to the heart of the puzzle quickly and showed me how to share seemingly very advanced problems with kids. Permalink 4:37 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@ClintEhrlich 1st time one reads @nntaleb: Geez, this guy is a dick. So f-ing arrogant! 2nd time: Ok, he’s right. But why does he have to be so rude about it? 3rd time: Taleb is a true gentleman. He makes all the right enemies.   Permalink 5:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Something abt Maestro Bogomolny’s @CutTheKnotMath mathematical purity I can now reveal. He had a hearing pblm (0% in ear, ~ in oth.) not remediable using aids. He left academia as he couldn’t communicate. He did math for math, not as a career. He wanted his site to make no $. Permalink 3:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@Steveonomics My favorite LinkedIn comment regarding @SouthwestAir banning peanuts. @nntaleb Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Whole Book in PRogress   Permalink 2:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb LIMIT DISTRIBUTIONS, a Tutorial (Chapter in the Technical INCERTO) Permalink 2:15 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@TheLikevillePod @nntaleb talks with the @TheLikevillePod about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, how intellectual-yet-idiots get us into trouble, and much else.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Excellent response. Doers and Risk Takers >>>Tawkers. Period. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 10:46 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In Russian, competitor is конкурент (as in French “concurrent”, Italian “concorrente” cc: @mathieuhelie ), a co-runner. There is no implication of antagonism. You need a “concurrent” because you do not engage in a race against yourself. Permalink 8:25 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@anandk_00 1st time one reads Taleb: it sounds true. 2nd time: one starts being aware of the concepts in operation in ones life, and in general, the world. 3rd time: one wonders how did he/she not get the beauty in the 1st reading itself. Permalink 7:43 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@ThomasSowell “There is much discussion of the haves and the have-nots, but very little discussion of the doers and the do-nots, those who contribute and those who merely take.” Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters @CutTheKnotMath Alexander, I know that you are up there in heaven and I hear there is a wifi connection set up there. So you should be able to tweet your #Math problems to us. We’re getting desperate down here. @nntaleb Permalink 4:13 PM – 9 Jul 2018

@diomavro I can honestly say I’ve learned more about probability and recursion from Alexander than the accumulation of all my university classes.   Permalink 5:45 AM – 9 Jul 2018

@GWeynerowski @Likeville hits it out of the park again. This is another fascinating, entertaining conversation led by @john_f_hamer that will make you see the world anew. And as for you, @nntaleb, quit blowing my mind!   Permalink 4:55 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb If someone wants a ride w/me, pls mention. I am leaving from Westchester. Permalink 2:18 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb From the family: All meet at Floral Park Cemetery at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow 7/9/2018, 104 Deans Rhode Hall Road, Monmouth Junction, NJ 08852. Tel 732-297-2336. Then ” everyone is welcome in our house afterwards […], East Brunswick, NJ” Permalink 2:15 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 6) The Anachronistic Fallacy, 2 You cannot flow today’s rules of morality backward in time & judge people THEN based on rules developed later. Morality comes from customs (mores). No law should be retroactive, something the bigoteers don’t get. Permalink 9:56 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Had the fellow applied this formidable cunning & astuteness to business he would have been montrously successful.   Permalink 8:51 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Soccer is fundamentally a high variance game.   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 5) THE ANACHRONISTIC FALLACY Injustice was done in the past with invasions, etc. But justice cannot operate without STATUTES of LIMITATIONS: we can’t invoke the Pilgrims, w/o going back to Bronze Age migrations. Arguments abt who did what >100 y ago are necessarily invalid. Permalink 5:32 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) Immigration requires sacrifice and skin in the game. Permalink 5:15 AM – 2 Jul 2018

Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams | Medium


Definition: Argument involving children to prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children: nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the reporting. Often done with the aid of pictures.

Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams

Ergodicity, Immigration, Nudgers, Monsanto, Gold, Blue, Pedophrasty, Pinker, Harris | Twitter

@nntaleb Ergodicity part 2!   Permalink 2:12 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He got ergodicity.   Permalink 2:08 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Of course.   Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war. & as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place. So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The discussion is not about the invention of calculus, but about Leibnitz, the last of the real polymaths (although he didn’t lift weights), and how mathematics is something that one can pick-up later in life. Gabish? Permalink 5:48 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) OK, OK, my Indian friends. Rediscovered calculus. Works now? Permalink 7:33 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Leibniz was a legal philosopher who at the age of 26 decided to learn math, then (co)invented calculus.   Permalink 7:26 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up. Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions. Permalink 7:22 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@normonics It’s not just pol sci people. The idea that the scale of a system is relevant to its behavior is OBVIOUS; yet almost never accounted for.   Permalink 3:10 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb What intellectuals don’t get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY: OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame Gabish? Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@Jeff_Fine Questions? Permalink 1:03 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn’t work. For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn’t exist. Permalink 12:59 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) This illusion that one can work with abstract ideas WITHOUT embedding them is the reason “intellectuals” don’t get skin in the game. (thread w @ClaireBerlinski ) Permalink 9:44 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is some type of common reasoning defect shared by people in political “science”: they don’t get scaling “Democracy” is not scalable. They don’t understand my insults: it’s not about ideas but in what environments ideas can be practically executed #ComplexSystems   Permalink 9:42 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@Baloo1987 An article written by a toxicologist working for #Monsanto is then handed to regulators who then simply copy-pasted it into the EU regulatory review. The definition a revolving door. Unbelievable! #CIJsummer #MonsantoPapers Permalink 6:02 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Functional Equation   #FigureThat #math #algebra ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:43 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Hope @freakonometrics can comment, as a follow-up to our debate with @DrCirillo as to whether statisticians have considered such consequence of fattailedness. All comments, whether positive or negative, are welcome.   Permalink 2:53 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Congress set up non-profits to raise $ for @NIH & @CDCGov. They illegally hid info about their corporate donors. Meanwhile, US health experienced its worst decline in a century. Now they’re lying about it. Time for #skininthegame.   cc: @nntaleb Permalink 2:41 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fraud Alert: QUORA ask Statisticians what they think of my work and get Unethical Mandari Narayan @neurostats to comment on anecdotes from Incerto, WITHOUT considering technical work. The fraud by Mandari Narayan sits for 3 y on the web. Comment on this!   Permalink 2:07 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The initial results of the M4 Competition can be found/downloaded in   The ranking of the first half of methods can be seen below ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:46 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never been more excited to attend a conference! @NECSI’s #ICCS2018   Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other counterintuitive aspect is that EVEN if Country X won EVERY past game, injecting a tiny bit of randomness into the system can make its probability of winning drop below, say, 10%. A tiny bit of randomness percolates quickly across the branches of the tree. Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is a set of probabilities that can give Germany 25% of winning without 100% probability of being in the semi-finals: that CONDITIONAL on making the semi-finals probability increases. However, the opposite holds: the higher up, the MORE 1/n. Gabish? Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Et cela continue   Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria). The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final. Don’t listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability. Permalink 5:07 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Discovered something: negative kurtosis and negative kappa. Some distributions are thinner-tailed than the Gaussian (needs to be bimodal) Permalink 4:56 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, thanks to the crowd-corrections @spyrosmakrid gave me a stay of execution. I got an extension. Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Les françaises et français commencent a aimer mon livre “Jouer sa peau”. Ils en ont marre de leur fonctionnaires. Permalink 4:47 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Naturally it debunks some of the “nudgers” s.a. @r_thaler showing they don’t understand fat tails & probability. Permalink 4:00 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, I was told in no uncertain terms by the editors & @spyrosmakrid that I get severely punished if I don’t meet the deadline for this paper (today). Please help find errors.   (cont) ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:59 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@StoolPoop I like that @nntaleb isnt left or right but rather local over global. I imagine he respects the harassing of pols in public. “Keep them close enough to kick them” Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn’t be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can’t people think in 1 ½ order effects?   Permalink 9:44 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 The idea to eat a plant-based diet is based on 2 mistakes. 1. Blaming meat for what ultra-processed foods did. 2. Blaming cholesterol for what insulin resistance did. Permalink 9:31 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To prove to Spyros I am really working on it, here is the paper in progress. Friends can help with typos.   Permalink 8:06 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is meta-Skin in the Game   Permalink 3:24 PM – 26 Jun 2018

@LucasVitorinoS3 ‘Homens fracos agem para satisfazer suas necessidades, homens fortes agem para cumprir seus deveres’ – @nntaleb Permalink 10:58 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@normonics If you’re concerned about what we’re doing to the climate by exposing it to a large amount of a non-novel agent You should be MUCH MORE concerned about GMO agr, as we are exposing ecosystems globally to massive amount of novel agents — including living ones that can replicate! Permalink 9:31 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Essay: Monsanto’s ghostwriting and strong-arming threaten sound science—and society   Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The heuristic is, simply, production of a commodity / volatility, signal/noise and you can see how much additional discovery/supply matters. Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand that @JustinWolfers is just another academic living on charity; but surprised to discover that @neelkashkari is head of a Fed and doesn’t realize that existing gold stock is monstrous in relation to production. Who put him there? Permalink 5:26 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Quant Finance researchers meet Medicine Quants today: Permalink 3:36 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Antigragility: my lecktchur in 2 hours   Permalink 12:52 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These idiots have never traded gold and seen forward contracts sold by producers. Permalink 12:46 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In fact unlike with money supply, gold miners are distributed and in competition. Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These 2 clueeeeeeeeless economists have no idea that the competitive mahket values gold in the ground as an asset with optionality. I mean clueeeeless. @JustinWolfers is particularly ignorant of everything.   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@d_a_n Some things don’t scale. Consider how you react to a car blocking the road. Small community – I get out, say hi, ask if help is needed, chat happily for 30 mins City – I hoot, swear, call the cops, maybe resort to road rage (thanks to @nntaleb for the insight) Permalink 9:30 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As I said the English “commoners” accept their GENETIC inferiority to the aristocracy but these hypocrites go on talking about political correctness with other commoners. Disgusting.   Permalink 9:26 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Background and solution Permalink 7:38 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@catoletters Robert Mueller was the biggest obstacle for Sept. 11 families who wanted to sue Saudi Arabia   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Syrian Christianity, something 1300 years of Arab rule didn’t do; Remember Christianity was born there, the NT was in the Greek of Antioch.   Permalink 6:16 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mini-Lecture (5 min) today at BBQ (Bloomberg Quant Seminar) in Honor of Rabbi “Tony” Glickman, 1950-2018. “Life is Long Gamma” @DaliaGlickman Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb BTW to understand what is called “GMO”, see this   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:10 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A Canadian brewer, @SteamWhistle is being harrassed by shills for listing “GMO free” on its beer. Turned out it is illegal in Canada to say “GMO free” (without some disclaimer): who wrote that law?   Permalink 3:44 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@jj_mllr New Blogpost: How two tweets about a simple coin toss experiment by @drob and @nntaleb can cause an academic existential crisis: Coin Tosses, Markov Chains, and an Existential Crisis.   Permalink 2:40 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after 6 ½ years, someone found a mistake in Antifragile. Will correct ASAP. The ancients had a color for blue. All references on that are wrong.   Permalink 3:13 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Prove that limit Gamma[n,n]/Gamma[n]=½ as n->infinity Permalink 2:36 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Accidentally stumbling on a helpful identity on a Sunday morning… Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Big Ag using financially insecure journos/”sci communicators” to sell: GMO/Glyphosate = science HENCE technosalvation (pedophrasty: only they can help “starving children” ) Anecdote = “evidence based” Bezos got that better food distribution >>technoBS   Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@NicuMihalache #skininthegame, the book by @nntaleb starts gently and rather predictably for those familiar with the Incerto series (and his Medium articles  ) then it takes you for a series of spins so that you want to tweet every other paragraph Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb MONSANTO Charlatan Watch: ask BS vendor @mark_lynas to produce systematic safety studies. Also ask him why he is in favor of both GMOs and Glyphosate (except that GMOs are an excuse to >3x pesticides & fry your soil). Charlatan!   via @WSJ Permalink 4:54 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@HypPioneer @nntaleb weighs in scam artists exploiting children to get what they want politically (open borders, war, etc.):   Permalink 4:35 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ralph Nader Asks Former First Ladies: Why No “Heartfelt Concern for Tens of Thousands of Children Killed or Seriously Maimed” by Their Husbands’ Wars? –   via @commondreams Permalink 3:18 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb All East Med citizens are nervously waiting for the selection of the new Byzantine Emperor. Permalink 3:42 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@thomas_quinlan Today’s word of the day: pedophrasty — the use of pictures of suffering children to advance an agenda.   This story via @zerohedge but term coined by the brilliant @nntaleb, here:   Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Let me dispell some mistakes. Do not conflate farniente with laziness. In the Med, idleness is never a virtue unless the person gets rich or does great things while exercizing it. That’s the difference with other cultures both further North and further South. Gabish? Permalink 12:06 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@ErwanLeCorre Ethically-evolved sports will avoid micro-agressions, turn sports fields into safe spaces. Next progress: kill the social-construct which is “competency.” The ultimate step: competition is elitist and inherently discriminatory. No more losers: EVERYONE WINS. Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Visually. We can also count the triangles Permalink 10:15 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@_benoux_ Exactly! I also like the clear distinction of @nntaleb on Sophrosyne (σωφροσύνη) vs. Rationality based on “graphs”, “facts” and “evidence”, all based on current state. Current state – one day – will collapse. It’s hybris to act on the presumption of immortality. Permalink 10:04 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor. Permalink 5:54 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Laura, but Naples for me is not monuments for tourists, but 1) narrow streets with laudry hanging from the window, 2) a f*** you attitude that permeates the place, 3) A (tiny) remaining Greek-Orthodox minority… Permalink 5:49 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, fughotaboud Genova, better choice than Venice. You need to find a place WITHOUT Goethe-inspired visiting Northerners who don’t know what sitting at a terrace doing absolutely nothing means. These include de-Mediterranized Northern Italians. Permalink 4:01 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It always depends on the terrace. And I prefer Naples or Palermo.   Permalink 3:50 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@GuyMorant Attention manipulation. Le génial essayiste Nassim Taleb partage un cas troublant d’utilisation d’une photo d’enfant pour court-circuiter la réflexion. “Pédophrastie”, retenez ce terme.   Permalink 10:54 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember that just as surgeons don’t look like surgeons strong men don’t look like athletes in ancient Greek sculptures. Permalink 2:44 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Which is why it was necessary to coin the term “pedophrasty”.   Permalink 1:45 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 1:17 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It continues… Mistake: he didn’t realize that people who really lift weights (instead of using machines) don’t have a thin waist. (cont)   Permalink 1:16 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. Permalink 12:37 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Never speak ill of the dead. But one can stay silent about him if he CAUSED deaths. If he advocated the Iraq War/WMD nonsense, then without REPENTANCE, another regime change/war, one must stay silent. For extreme cases: damnatio memoriae יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ Permalink 8:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People here aren’t getting the aberration: +Book written in US; author in US; publisher in US; readers (of US edition) in US. +Printed in China <=> Chinese censorship. +Publishers & Authors find this NORMAL. This is one side of Globalism Globalists need to explain. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Note that my problem with Chinese printers was resolved amicably (they accepted) but I am SHOCKED that no other author had the guts to stand up to the weirdness Chinese censorship of a US book by a US author.   Permalink 6:34 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If BS Vendor Pinker’s @sapinker’s book was a scientific paper, it would have been retracted. Pinker has not answered question w/@DrCirillo : Why is he making Richardson say something OPPOSITE to what he said? All his “evidence” reposes on that. Permalink 5:31 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@Zilvera1 Brilliant van @nntaleb over salafisme.The bureaucrats and representatives of the“elites” (Van Aartsen) are fooled by the label. They treat Salafism as just a religion –with its houses of “worship” — when in fact it is just an intolerant political system.   Permalink 5:10 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@market_fox An example of why “doctors should not look like doctors” @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:13 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To summarize thread above, rationality is not about “beliefs” but actions, #SkinInTheGame. It is not scientific to evaluate raw “beliefs”. Gabish? Permalink 2:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@z3nblack Sometimes I find @nntaleb is standing against an army on his own. Then again, I realize these battles are not fought with guns or swords. One can project the power (& refinement) of their mind against the many, & the numbers *against* don’t matter. Interesting times to be alive.   Permalink 2:39 PM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with Charlatan @SamHarrisOrg is that he talks about “rationality” without even remotely knowing what it means. Charlatan.   Permalink 11:56 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@TMFStoffel This excerpt from @JohnCarreyrou’s Bad Blood shows Elizabeth Holmes carrying out a version of @nntaleb’s *Pedophastry* Dubious claims of a heinous act that are a smokescreen and weaken claims of real victims   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Christianity is not *only* 2000 y old. It is a mutation of >4K y of Mediterranean-Anatolian creeds, mysteries, and mythologies. And its structure dates from the early Roman republic. Atheism has no #Lindy to build on, continue and progress from.   Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@ggreenwald Is there any benefit or value at all in inquiring why these sorts of abuses generated so little attention and anger pre-2017, or should we just go ahead and ignore that question? See also:   Permalink 5:19 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan. 1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect. 2 Imposture “neuroscientist” when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*?   Permalink 4:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Haha!   Permalink 3:38 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get that Christianity is about church!= state   Permalink 3:24 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Arabism and the bigoteering by Arabists.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:13 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish. 2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 3:10 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams”   Permalink 1:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@rbarilla Maybe you still don’t “get” it. Without a proper vocabulary to describe unethical behavior, people cannot easily call out charlatans who exhibit such behavior. Given all of Taleb’s work, charlatans can now more easily be called out, including ourselves. Permalink 11:18 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams”   Permalink 12:26 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here is the text by Peter Henry Fonda   Permalink 9:23 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember the principle that we shd ignore actors’ own words, only listen to them when they mindlessly recite words written by pple with higher capacities of reasoning, when they impersonate much worthier humans. For the Romans, actors were the lowest form of human life.   Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The paper with the initial results of the M4 Competition (with a small typo) can be found in the link   It can be also found in Science Direct shortly in the link   Good reading and apologies for the short delay. @robjhyndman Permalink 7:25 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A false accusation of rape has the side effect of inducing skepticism, causing genuine accusations to be taken less seriously. You are also harming the true victims. Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A light sentence is not sufficient. Under Hammurabi’s code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator.   via @nypost Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Research by salaried laborers is becoming a rent-seeking citation ring consisting of large scale imitative rituals, with a decreasing number of results, an increasing cluelessness of participants, and a multiplication of useless rules. Permalink 5:45 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The antifragility from fragility equation!   Permalink 5:43 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@rma_adler @nntaleb Fantastic book, now my favorite gym shirt (self-designed). Best… Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@ektrit Factual persecution of Christians now enshrined in Canadian Law.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman discussing the replication crisis: “There are 1 million scientific publications per year. Do we have one million scientific discoveries per year?” Permalink 3:57 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My new policy is to respond to 10% of offenses, but hit > 10x harder. Better than responding to half the offenses, but hitting the victim twice harder. Exception is when I want to kill time in airports.   Permalink 1:29 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb With the statistical vigilante, the great Andrew Gelman and Joshua Miller @jben0 Permalink 12:54 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@sahouraxo The war criminal who oversaw the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children, separating them from their families forever, now wants us to believe that he suddenly cares about children.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Work with @spyrosmakrid on weather/climate   Permalink 5:37 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Excellent news! Now if someone labels you as “Islamophobe” for opposing Salafinazism, you can sue. But try to squeeze more, a lot more out of them.   Permalink 4:10 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@drjohnm @EJSMD has called the #COI of clinicians being employed one of the greatest COIs. < As @nntaleb wrote about, if you want to own someone, employ them. Recently heard in the doctor’s lounge: “Shh. they are listening.” Said in jest but…   Permalink 3:51 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This idiot @matt_blackwell is a pol “scientist” doing “statistics” & didn’t get that news isn’t spreading because a minor actress is complaining abt her car being burned, but because @Tesla. Would the news spread if it were one of the other 180K? #IYI   Permalink 3:43 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) There is this myth of “long run” data is thin tailed because of aggregation and “Central Limit”. A lot of BS. Just like “democracy”, “populism”, “racism”,”enlightenment”, the term “Central Limit” is uttered by parrots clueless of what they are talking about. Permalink 3:14 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) There are tests to see how Central Limit works: Summing data (say weekly returns) should produce thinner tails. Not the case. Permalink 3:07 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Nice example of #SkinInTheGame   Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Page 2, luckily there is no picture of me this time.   Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Thanks Shant. I am tired of people who come to my twitter account, dedicated to BS busting, expecting to hear some feel-good motivational sh*t. Permalink 7:46 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Milke Lawler @mikeandallie has done a grrrrrrrreat job explaining the Central Limit BS to his children. Preasymtotic behavior is CENTRAL.   Permalink 6:30 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is the kind of JUNK that has destroyed firms, social science/economics. CLT works at various speeds under fat tailed distributions.   cc:@spyrosmakrid   Permalink 6:24 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you are trained/selected to think in Static terms. Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a counterintuive property, an illustration of why you need to use DYNAMIC thinking into things that are dynamic, not STATIC. (cont)   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 2 types of pple: Those who think in STATICS, those who think in DYNAMICS. Problem w/”intellectuals” & other idiots like @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein who become policymakers is that they can’t think in 2nd steps. Schools mismeasure intelligence w/low dimensional tests. Permalink 3:31 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule: the more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say anti-racism, anti-sexism), the more they will be used as a cover for unethical actions. Moral: remove all diversity rules for the sake of diversity.   Permalink 2:33 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@AllonMessenberg My father always said: “If you go to work every day, you have no time to make money!” Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@MisterNuance Zakaria is a textbook example of what @nntaleb warns about: a fake “expert” who pays no price for being wrong.   Permalink 11:09 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 150K-200K car fires per annum. You take one event & an emotional statement of an actress & turn it into a statement about the safety of @Tesla. And this is 2018. I am blocking any commentator who doesn’t get it. In this and other similar situations. Finito. Permalink 8:08 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath … a counterintuitive property of coin-tossing: If Alice tosses a coin until she sees a head followed by a tail, and Bob tosses a coin until he sees two heads in a row, then on average, Alice will require four tosses while Bob will require six tosses …   Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Proper approach: count the rate of these things for @Tesla, compare to other auto-makers, & adjust by other safety statistics. I can’t believe that 18 years after Fooled by Randomness this type of bulls**t is still rampant. Another rule: Never listen to actors except on acting.   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2-a) Every time I return from the W. Med it hits me there is *something* intense & sophisticated that’s different in the E. Med (i.e.,+Armenia/Georgia), reported since Byzantium. Turned out: The SILK ROAD & that Persian thingy Convinced @PZalloua to read @peterfrankopan’s book. Permalink 2:46 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is no argument in favor of pedophrasty that is not pedophrastic. (Circularity).   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) One only criterion for (material) success: not having a schedule. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Barbara @chicaderock, please read books BY Seneca, who was the real thing (a doer), not something ON Seneca by some library rat with a modern perspective. They will miss something essential.   Permalink 12:05 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Moronic @hardsci, just 1 and we know which one it is.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that any argument (such as the one now used for illegal immigration) that is supported by pictures/narratives of children is called PEDOPHRASTY. Actually, use of children should weaken an argument. Permalink 6:48 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes Permalink 4:13 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The carpenter fallacy: do you hire a carpenter to understand the odds of a sequence at the roulette table? Or a probabilist? Moral: the more advanced a nondeterministic science the more it becomes the domain of the applied probabilist. Genetics is a probabilty problem. Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) The geneticist Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia, with Mount Lebanon in the background. THREAD: on the carpenter fallacy in genetics to follow. Permalink 2:08 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@ThePradosh When you are halfway through #JackDaniels & start to read work by @nntaleb, you realize what #Millennials are truly are. #bedofprocrustes Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Convexity in Medicine: How Pharma cheats with the “evidence” (aside from P-hacking) cc:@MichaelSagnerMD Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Just a reminder that Noah Smith @Noahpinion is a a pure BS Vendor before you read him on anything related to anything (s.a. Theranos & Skin in the Game). Gabish?   Permalink 10:00 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The best surprise: a brand new gym in a converted mansion that belonged to a cousin of mine… Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2/2 There are high demands to perform, indeed!   Permalink 6:16 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK. I found a local gym with barbells & a squat rack. Rushing there.   Permalink 6:14 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We should de-anonymizing the “peer-review” process: referees can be harmfully stupid or vicious w/o accountability. This idiot tried to reject paper w/@DrCirillo because he couldn’t translate that 4 page 8½ by 11 compressed 1-spaced =12 pages double-sp 6½ by 9. #SkinintheGame Permalink 4:26 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Further, the same applies to “arm” and “hand”. Permalink 2:37 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The plot thickens: In Greek leg and foot are also πόδι, In Farsi both پا, but there is a more marked difference in Romance languages (gamba/piede) although pes in Latin can mean both. Permalink 2:31 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Like Phoenician, Aramaic, & Hebrew, the Lebanese lang. still uses the same word (ijr, rgl) for foot and leg in spite of 170 years of (failed) Arabization (foot in Arabic is قدم).   Permalink 12:48 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@oneraindrop A complex system has failed to act as expected by its designers, but has instead exhibites behavior that no one expected it to exhibit Permalink 7:17 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@thyagjs An important point from the SITG book by @nntaleb For those who do things, it is harder to talk about what they do. Reality doesn’t care about tawk. It is full of pauses and hesitations. Clear, non-hesitant speech is the domain of non-doers. Permalink 6:36 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 Here’s the most famous nutritionist in America, Walter Willett of Harvard, defending the use of seed oils, saying that new data that says they’re unhealthy isn’t relevant. Good example of why I no longer listen to these people.   Permalink 5:56 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb On the main difference between East Med and West Med (except for Provence) called here “milk of lions”. Permalink 9:35 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot separate the Med diet from frequency. 1-FASTING Greeks were vegan 210 days. 2-Meat was eaten at festivals, in Yuge quantities, mostly FAT 3-Breakfast is a recent invention 4-“Dinner”=mostly mezze 5-Byphasic sleep 6-Hill/stairs climbing all the time 7-No seed oil Permalink 8:56 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Main lesson from the retraction (NEJM paper on Med diet): + Medicine is mostly (nonstandard) statistics + Medicine is abt convex dose-response NO expertise in biology/medicine will make up for it. PS- My paper on frequency/convexity in medicine was accepted. #Antifragile   Permalink 8:29 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In Northern Phoenicia for the Weekend. Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, the real story is that @KarlreMarks was caught plagiarizing, then reacted exactly like a real plagiarist: he followed the maximally dishonorable route, digging then digging more. Permalink 2:53 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A new argument   Permalink 2:23 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite. Permalink 1:41 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here it is   Permalink 12:02 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@sergioschloros This expression is recorded by in Homer “The proper meaning of ἀνανεύειν is to express dissent or refusal by throwing back the head, opposed to “κατανεύειν”, the corresponding gesture of assent or permission by nodding and bowing the head”   Permalink 10:36 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb “τσου” as the Mediterranean “no”: A sound like “ts” (sucked lip) , coupled with a single nod, meaning “NO” (& a certain familiarity with the interlocutor). J2 Haplogroup countries: Phoenicia, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Sicily, Calabria, Western Syria. Any other? Permalink 10:30 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I thought I was the only one to call low IQ tawkers low IQ tawkers.   Permalink 8:19 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@financequant Wow! Opioids turned out to be addictive. Something we thought known for millennia but was, in fact, cleverly hidden by Big Pharma, probably in collusion with the FDA.   Permalink 7:59 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@primalpoly This @Harvard president’s email to alumni defends discrimination against Asian applicants, in the name of promoting ‘diversity’. How will this read in 20 years?   Permalink 6:08 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, “no” in Maltese, Sicilian, Lebanese, and various other Med languages is “tsk” Permalink 3:18 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only in Sicily. The same hotel is famous both for housing R. Wagner when he finished Parsifal and for hosting a decisive mafia convention — in addition to being a preferred spot for various improvised and less improvised “meetings”. Permalink 12:55 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #LindyEffect   Permalink 2:07 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L3ayno zghiré ma bi kabbér, L3ayno kbiré ma bi zaghgher. Permalink 2:00 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L zghir ma bi kabbérak w l kbir ma bi zaghghrak. Permalink 11:15 AM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Taxi driver to Malta’s airport: Where are you flying to? Me: Palermo. Driver: vacation? Me: No. Meeting. Silence the rest of the journey. Permalink 1:49 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Interesting. Because it is true.   Permalink 12:21 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Returnless Risk? Permalink 8:28 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 6) To understand the Romans, essential Meds, who shunned doing things themselves but praised builders: “Caesar pontem fecit” means Ceasar *had a bridge built* (by others), not “built a bridge” as usually translated. Tr. into French would be “a fait bâtir un pont” not “a bâti”. Permalink 12:45 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Strange absence of Arabian genes (Nabatean, North & South), though possible flow from Maghrebis. Some Phoenician/Anatolian/Greek. Will increase sample & look at more sophisticated maps but still. Permalink 2:47 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The main difference is gh is pronounced 3, h with a bar=7, q = 2, x=sh … My only mistery: how did barra/juwwa get to them from Aramaic? Unless @safaitic is right and the Arabs who took the Maghreb spoke a branch of safaitic Permalink 1:08 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb He seems to be playing the agency problem of bureaucrats. People w/#SkinInTheGame are more interested in their fridge than remote (or even less remote) geopolitics & willing to settle w/peace as the default preference. Governments & bureaucrats have exact opposite preferences.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@JSuchJ “True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.” Great life insight from @nntaleb foreword to Ed Thorp’s A Man for All Markets Permalink 4:10 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Amos Tversky, the research partner of Kahneman, remarked that he “merely studied in a systematic way things about behaviour that were already known to advertisers and used-car salesmen”. #Lindy Evil nudgeboys Thaler-Sunstein do the exact opposite.   Permalink 3:53 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Now the mystery: there were a lot of Maltese-Lebanese trading families in Leb: +Abella, Sabella, Mamo, Camilleri, Aquilina, Borg (Borji), Mcallef +SALIBA in both (my mother’s original last name is Ghosn Saliba, not Ghosn) Phoenician practice to trade w/cousins across Med ? Permalink 1:55 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mr President, we shall start the invasion at 1400 hours.   Permalink 4:19 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@trishankkarthik Once you come to #RWRI, you will never see the world the same way again @financequant @nntaleb   Permalink 2:28 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@normonics I like to say: GMO is like everyone in the world crossing the street together at the same time Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 5) Another reason there large entities don’t work in the Med, causing a scale problem: you cannot be alpha if you are not free & self-employed (or the boss), an employee of Goldman Sachs is of a lower status than a local doctor. Permalink 11:22 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can tell Maltese is a bit more Arabic than Lebanese: ecclesiatical & nonArabic Semitic terms are often from Latin/Italian whereas Leb uses Aramaic (Ġesù not Yasu3, Eva not 7awwa…) Means Maltese didn’t have these words in their corpus, which must have been Siculo-Arabic. Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) For instance to be Med you need to both disrespect hard work and respect success, exactly the opposite of the “work ethics” & the worship of labor in the non-necessarily Prostestant North. Permalink 9:44 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@Safaitic @nntaleb is on point. Stories of a grand Yemeni-Arab exodus following the collapse of the Marib dam are simply mythology. In no other field are legends taken at such face value. The term “Arab” and “Arabic” were appropriated and reimagined by Islamic-period writers to refer(cont. Permalink 3:00 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge: Pinning Beginning (i.e., past) and End (i.e., present) and looking at probabilities of what could have happened in between is very, very useful in GENETICS and LINGUISTICS. Even if you don’t have the exact proba, you get the structure. My solution here. Permalink 2:11 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Which means the 2aysi( qaysi)-Yamani fights could be infighting, a division that mimics the Byzantine Green-Blue one –the Druze are almost entirely Anatolian, genetically closest to Kurds.–Yaman_rivalry   Permalink 1:41 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is (in history textbooks) a story of Peninsular tribes settling into Lebanon (largely from Yemen). But genetics don’t show it: the Yemen story is a fabrication. Now @Safaitic is hinting that these tribes were from the Southern Levant. This can explain linguistic puzzles.   Permalink 1:33 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The French have tried to become Meds for 2000 years. They can’t: except for spots, Germanics speaking a Latin language. Permalink 2:45 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Point is; if you’re not Med, you’ll never understand the Mediterranean. You can spend 31 y in Oxford reading “classics”, all that sh*t, & still understand nothing about the Mediterranean. Now, if you’re not Med, the closest you’ll ever get is via squid ink & Moustaki. Salve. Permalink 2:40 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Malta Permalink 12:58 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@cindyturlevnon كل استاذ مدرسة بعيّط ع تلميذ و بيجبرو يقول نعم غلطان وبيكون عم يمارس تعنيف لغوي. نحنا بطور لڤنن رح نوزّع مناشير توعية للمدارس عن الالفاظ السريانية بلغتنا اللبنانية، كمان مندعي كل بي و ام ما يستخفوا بالإرث الكبير يلي اخدناه من السرياني لغة جدودنا. #TurLevnon Permalink 9:40 AM – 8 Jun 2018

Espen Haug, Krugman, Monsanto, @DylanRatigan, Localism, #RWRI 8, TECHNICAL INCERTO, Powerful Yet Slaves | Twitter

@spyrosmakrid 1/ The M4 Competition, ended on 31/5, was an Open one, with its most important objective: “to learn to improve f/cing accuracy and advance the field”, in contrast to “horse race” ones, as those organized by Kaggle, aimed at finding winners in a black box. The M4’s findings follow Permalink 1:25 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge! The best kind of practical problems.   Permalink 12:58 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Maltese is a language invented by a Levantine who read a lot of Italian novels.   Permalink 12:22 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Flaneuring bil Lébnéné = “shmm hawa” or, better, “re5iya”, or “2awwas 3ind rabbna” (about men of leisure).   Permalink 12:04 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fl-ajruplan lejn Malta fl-aħħar Permalink 11:21 PM – 7 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only if negatively correlated with another exposure of higher expected value in absolute terms. In other words, pay for insurance.   Permalink 1:37 AM – 7 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Espen is now doing work in physics. Veteran option traders have a no-nonsense approach to probability.   Permalink 6:13 PM – 6 Jun 2018

@EGHaug Out flaneuring with @nntaleb in Oslo, long bright days, and always some bright interesting insight from NNT on probabilities and life… Permalink 8:15 AM – 6 Jun 2018

@AlgoSlayer Oldie, but a goodie. Featuring @nntaleb Permalink 8:04 AM – 6 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Please. Please.   Permalink 9:16 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Unpublished 2nd volume of Dynamic Hedging Permalink 6:35 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ma bi 7ékkak illa difrak = Your finger, and only your finger, can scratch your itch. [Liberal translation: finger in place of nail] Permalink 4:03 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM explained in Lebanese: Ma bi 7ékkak illa difrak Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Krugman used his bully pulpit to take a cheap shot at @charlesmurray he deemed lower in the social science hierarchy. Murray isn’t my ideal intellecktshual, but @paulkrugman as a BS vendor is no judge of rigor, science, business, finance, ideas, erudition, or anything.   Permalink 5:26 PM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto figured out that calling a group “Academic Reviews” or “Literacy Project” they could promote their junk w/suckers believing the groups are actually “pro-science” -like dictatorships that call themselves “democratic republic” These agents will pay for destroyed careers.   Permalink 12:57 PM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4 hours left, 6k votes so far.   Permalink 10:45 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Should have been for a weekend. A problem from the 2005 AMC   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:18 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For years I have been shouting “Delenda Monsanto” to whoever could listen. Looks like my wishes may be finally coming true. Another delenda: Saudi Barbaria Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Bayer is ditching the Monsanto name. Predictably, a liability: the most evil firm in history. Now will they also ditch the Monsanto practices: + intimidation of scientists + smear campaigns + lobbying + infiltration of the FDA + promotion of scientism w/jounos “pro-science” etc.   Permalink 4:07 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@raktagulikaa Wow, had no idea of this history in connection with the “olive oil vs butter” and “Europeans borrowing civilization” comments of @nntaleb   Permalink 12:27 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We know, empirically, that @paulkrugman’s opinion is useless taken at face value –practically abt everything. But can he be useful as “reverse indicator”, like traders so bad yet so nonrandom that colleagues imitate them in reverse (i,e. go short if they are bullsish, etc.) ? Permalink 2:49 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My friend @DylanRatigan is running for elections as Democrat, but he has strong localist tendencies. To show that left-right is less meaningful.   Permalink 2:35 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is not tawk, but Skin in the Game. With @financequant and other members, we trained so far 400 people at less than ½ the tuition for executive education, w/30% scholarships, and our lecktchurs had 4-5 instructors present because it was so much fun.   Permalink 2:15 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My experiment with the 8 cycles of #RWRI proved that, presently > 82% of university costs are to cover metastatic bureaucracies & lobbying real estate developers. In other words you can cut edyukashion costs from $50K to $9K with NO effect. Universities are committing suicide.   Permalink 2:00 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@_pierreblanc The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding, or better at explaining than doing. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life @nntaleb @GaryMarcus #futureofwork Permalink 12:37 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Lahol yallé baddon yshufo kif lMalté 2arib 3an lghat Sémiyyé (2ul “Sémé” msh “3arabé”). Lézém nmshé warahon. #Localism   via @YouTube Permalink 10:24 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A nice Cretan metaproblem for the morning coffee. Is a liar also necessarily a liar about being a liar? Is a liar who tells you that he is a liar a liar?   Permalink 6:13 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR. If 50% of the work is done by 1% of the people, prove that 80% of the work will be done by 20% of the people, assuming scalability.   Permalink 5:48 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) The Phoenicians were the localists of history, maneuvering across dominant empires by paying for mafia protection. Centralistas are so programmed to think anachronistically in nation-states that they spread the incoherent thesis by @josephinequinn that they didn’t exist. Permalink 4:22 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Those who say it is better not to mess with genetics may be right   Permalink 4:18 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb That’s the reason to practice mathematics on a daily basis, especially when you write books & articles. Not because math is directly useful in life, but just to avoid turning into something like @sapinker   Permalink 3:38 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@RubenGao “Not everything that happes happens for a reason. But everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:20 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@SBakerMD President of Australian Medical Association want Netflix to remove Keto friendly film “Magic Pill” Stupid or Corrupt?? Cast your votes now! Permalink 4:25 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #RWRI 8 THE SELF REFERENCE PROBLEM OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS A Quiz based on a rule offered by @Sarasewda, cc:@normonics @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:44 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The naive political “scientists” (& other BS vendors) think superficially, in labels. They want the U.S. to not be a colony of Britain, but want Britain to be a colony of Brussels, & Nebraska to be a colony of Washington, D.C. They don’t get centralization . Permalink 10:20 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People not trained in modern science are programmed to thing in terms of “left” & “right”, still trapped in a stone-age discourse. They miss on the property of scaling: effect is not invariant to size of autonomous unit. #localism #minorityrule   Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@Sarasewda My biggest takeaway. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us. Life looks different now #RWRI #Rule22 @trishankkarthik @nntaleb   Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The opposite of fascism isn’t a democratic form of socialism; it’s localism. Permalink 9:27 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The generalized birthday paradox from a @CutTheKnotMath problem Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #RWRI Trivia: the best skills in applied probability are found in quant finance. Discovered that Nick Patterson the wiz kid mathematician of genetics worked at Renaissance when @financequant was a partner there.   Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: a lot of NY   Permalink 6:04 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8 Answered @Shuwen22973519 Q abt error by geneticist @mt_genes trolling in support of some UK classicist w/o understanding the notion of JOINT distributions: if “Most Likely” (max p) subclades map to autosomal cluster, via ~k-mean, then necessarily indicative of origin.   Permalink 6:02 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) Accepting that some people (“past victims”) should be treated differently in matters of “racism” implies: accepting to have discounted (or waved) penalties for past victims of theft when they themselves commit theft. So many logical inconsistencies in these arguments! Permalink 5:29 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@Learn_lebanese naqqé ḥarf lal ح bel leğğa l’lebanneniyé. #LL Permalink 4:16 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: high Sharpe ratios are predictive of huge blowups. The more stable the return, the more likely the blowup. Volatile funds lose money; but not as much as nonvolatile ones. Permalink 11:45 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: Lecktchurer talking about how intellectulas yet idiots nudgeboys @r_thaler @CassSunstein increase risk in the system Permalink 9:13 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Looking forward to seeing you all at ICCS 2018! @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @swimdaily @normonics @trishankkarthik @stephen_wolfram @barabasi @ednapasher @cesifoti @C4computation   Permalink 8:00 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc. Permalink 5:05 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It is RACIST to penalize someone from race A saying something abt someone from race B, but not someone from race B saying something abt someone from race A. It is worse than racist: it breaks societal symmetry. The same applies to gender. Permalink 4:55 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand why some writers (Balzac) were obsessed with printing. Marx was right about the alienation (which he eventually helped increase). Artisans minimize the distance between labor and fruits of labor. Permalink 4:45 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I wrote in SITG abt artisans seeing their full product, unlike factory workers laboring on a portion of it. There is an immense satisfaction writing a book while controling 100% of the aesthetics,on the final format, as it will look *exactly* on the page. It makes it artisanal. Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, The Vol 1 of theTECHNICAL INCERTO, “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Technical Papers and Commentary” will come out this year (color), thanks to @TuckerMax who manages my STEM ACADEMIC PUBLISHING (contract signed). Writing math on final format is like painting. Permalink 3:40 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@garyruskin Professor Leemon McHenry’s McHenry’s full paper on the #MonsantoPapers:   And his letter to publisher @tandfonline, regarding his paper on the #MonsantoPapers, and its apparent double standard in publishing   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:01 PM – 31 May 2018

@DataSciFact New post: Six sigma events Riffing on a line from @nntaleb   Permalink 12:46 PM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb I am going on a linguistic trip. Alone, just to tawk & listen to the local language to get inspiration for the Lebanese neo-Phoenician writing system. Permalink 12:29 PM – 31 May 2018

@GuruAnaerobic ‘These findings suggest that during ageing, mitochondria lose the ability to produce energy during maximal efforts bt not when the energetic demand is lower.’ G. Anaerobic – “aging is diminishing tails; retain the ability to generate/withstand extremes”   Permalink 8:23 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb “Nice guy” (“asshole”) is a compliment (insult) when uttered by family member (charlatans). Permalink 7:30 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Ana raye7 3a Malta la et3allam kif byektbo leghton el-Samiyyé e bi 3isho ka Europiyyé b-légha mitl tab3iitna. Permalink 6:18 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Friends, where in Malta should one stay? Permalink 5:36 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Some optimist on the Greco-Turkish fraternity, once they get it that they may have the same lineage.   Permalink 6:58 PM – 30 May 2018

@Shuwen22973519 I just uploaded ‘Oinops pontos.docx’ to @academia!   Permalink 6:57 PM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb The success of twitter lies in twitter fights. (An idea of @normonics ) Permalink 5:16 PM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb “If p=np I don’t want to be alive” @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:35 PM – 30 May 2018

@trishankkarthik @financequant: A model does not describe its own limitations and risks. @nntaleb #RWRI (I may have butchered it a bit, but you get the idea) Permalink 1:04 PM – 30 May 2018

@hagaetc I never imagined that my idols @nntaleb and @kanyewest would pride my wall in one single picture, but then again black swans do occur – scoopdidypoop! Permalink 12:15 PM – 30 May 2018

@john_f_hamer “Religion isn’t so much about telling man that there is one God as about preventing man from thinking that he is God.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb @BarbaraRKay @ahaspel @TheJosephRosen Permalink 11:19 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb Thanking @_swanson for the recommendation. Permalink 11:02 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb Italian publisher is in town. Permalink 10:23 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb We are now talking about GMO idiots who don’t get CA.   Permalink 7:10 AM – 30 May 2018

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb Rule 110 is universal Permalink 6:58 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb μα μπα3ρεφ… μιμκεν μπασ λεζεμ νγαυυερ καμμ σηαγλε   Permalink 4:24 AM – 30 May 2018

@EJSMD Recall, when Public Health initiatives fail, they can fail in spectacular fashion. —low fat diet & obesity crisis —chronic pain Rx & opioid crisis —#EHR, metrics & MD burnout Central health planners need #skininthegame @nntaleb @afrakt @aaronecarroll   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:15 AM – 30 May 2018

@LIHF_Living Finished this last night.. Before reading @nntaleb I thought I was alone and going insane. After reading, I was comforted by the fact that there are at least 2 nutters in the world that think alike, and a namesake at that! Permalink 11:08 PM – 29 May 2018

@nntaleb You can control people. You can’t control information. People are upset over the ban, much, much more than the arrest. The more you stifle information, the louder it gets. #Antifragile   Permalink 4:42 AM – 29 May 2018

@nntaleb Fi shi ismo AERAL INFLUENCE: lamma legtein byen7eko 7add ba3don, bisouro byeshbaho naghmet ba3don: lfrensewé 3indo l “r” mitl el Ilmané, l3ibrani mitl l Ilmané. L bayruté mitl l Tilyéné naghméto (wl Yunéné): lamma ne7ké Tiliyéné ma 3inna lahjé awiyyé. Permalink 3:56 AM – 29 May 2018

@ole_b_peters What can I say? Thank you for spreading the word, @nntaleb. I’m fully aware it sounds unbelievable, and I suppose that’s why economics journals haven’t yet published it. Our approach right now: demonstrate scientific superiority of the alternative formalism.   Permalink 10:57 AM – 28 May 2018

Sunstein, Stephens, Christian Trinity, Russians, Dodd Frank, Pompeo, Klueless Massimo, Hagia Sophia | Twitter

@trishankkarthik “In general, we have a lot of uncertainty about the world, but we have very little uncertainty about what to do.” — Another classic from @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 9:02 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb Mafik téktob el lughat el Europiyyé bil7arf el 3arabé. L Atrak jarrabo l7arf llatiné zabatét ma3on la2nno fi ktir kilmét Europiyyé 3indon, mitl 3inna. Permalink 8:05 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb The traditional mission of the journalist is to 1) be independent, 2) fight power on behalf of citizens. We are getting, with very few exceptions, cowards who worry about their reputation & are afraid to fight the monoculture. Permalink 4:49 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb Ahamm shi bil legha ma ma3rwf min weyn jéyé bas na3rwf weyn banna nekhda! Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb The great Andrew Gelman @StatModeling catches the chronic nudgeboy @CassSunstein in an explosion of BS   Permalink 3:25 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb Hiyyé lfikra hon latéfhamo ma 3am ni7ké 3arabé bass legha a3ta2 minna ktir.   Permalink 2:53 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb Don’t have the courage. It’s all about courage.   Permalink 6:06 PM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb Ma zabatét abl ma3 sa3id 3a2l, halla2 rej3ét lfikra tettabba2, ma3 1) el-social media w 2) mawt mashru3 l 3urubé bi Lebnén (w Suriyya’l gharbiyyé). Wa2ta halla2. “An idea whose time has come”. Permalink 5:11 PM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb This BS Vendor @BretStephensNYT is so mean & stupid that it makes the case for @elonmusk’s project to force journos to have skin in the game.   Permalink 10:57 AM – 27 May 2018

@AndrewNoymer Rachel Carson lead us to reckoning with DDT, a component of the first “green revolution”. I hope the day of reckoning is coming for glyphosate, neonicotinoids, etc., and the agricultural GMOs that drive their demand.   Permalink 10:19 AM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb Lfar2 béyn l legha wl lahjé hiyyé bass l kitébé. Ktubo bil lebnéné/Neo-Ken3ané/Neo-Fini2é. Ma tste7o min leghét jdudkon! Ma tste7o! Ana la7 tarjém kitbé 3al Néo-Ken3ané. Permalink 8:59 AM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb Turned out, I was invited, but the invitation was in my unopened mail folder. Maybe I should start reading my mail.   Permalink 6:09 AM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb To summarize the central problem addressed in my technical book. Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 May 2018

@DrK_W1984 3/3…and I’m hopeful it provides a way to understand and encourage religious/ atheist tolerance. #Skininthegame Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 May 2018

@RJMourinha “Don’t waste time trying to get an A because you’re not going to remember all that shit.” @nntaleb speaks with @tylercowen for @cowenconvos (via @farnamstreet)   Permalink 4:05 AM – 27 May 2018

@KarinLitzcke Speaking of this amazing interview, in it, @nntaleb also clarifies the nature of the tensions underlying a pesky, long-standing and ongoing series of conflicts: Permalink 2:27 PM – 26 May 2018

@KarinLitzcke In this wide-ranging interview, @nntaleb explains in a single paragraph what armchair academic critics of @jordanbpeterson miss about why he connects w public & they don’t:   Permalink 2:12 PM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb This seems to be a good summary for those of us who lost interest.   Permalink 10:16 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb From Silent Risk Permalink 7:59 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb Something they also don’t get about impatience: survivorship bias. Delaying gratification means also taking much, much more hidden risks (“a bird in the hand”). In human nature vs psychologists, ignore psychologists. See Silent Risk.   Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb “If you want people to buy a book tell them it’s overrated” [Bed of Procrustes] “Buy houses they call overpriced; read books called overrated; invest in markets called irrational; do things you enjoy that they can’t explain.”   Permalink 7:12 AM – 26 May 2018

@lee_alley You know, I’ve read innumerable philosophers, theologians, religious people, authors, for years & no one has gotten the Christian trinity in a one-er as succinctly as ex-trader & something-or-the-other guru @nntaleb   3 sentences to distill 3 Moltmann books! Permalink 5:54 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb Watch out: I block nitpickers, particularly those who nitpick aphorisms. Gabish? Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb (No, the point is that complaining is what losers do.) Permalink 3:51 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb You want your enemies to complain about you. The more they complain, the better. Permalink 3:44 AM – 26 May 2018

@BrankoMilan And I doubt very much self-reported trust indicators (which these studies use) because I think it is only _behavior_ of people which matters not what people say they believe. (Not original; @nntaleb makes the same point.) Permalink 1:49 PM – 25 May 2018

@nntaleb 1) Pinker doesn’t understand statistical significance, bul**ts about it when caught. 2) Science = statistically significant. Gabish?   Permalink 7:40 AM – 25 May 2018

@nntaleb Russian Keto: pork fat, unapologetic. Helps with both keto and drinking. Permalink 11:32 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb A little bit of background on why you need to learn to get drunk with Russians   Permalink 11:29 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb Getting drunk with Russians! Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb Paper was accepted by a journal. I accidentally submitted it in place of another file and just got the report. Permalink 8:36 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb Saint Petersburgh, today   Permalink 8:09 AM – 24 May 2018

@IgnacioYbanez @nntaleb insiste en la fragilidad de las cosas, pero también en la repetición de las cosas. Ahora las tablets han sustituido a los ordenadores que sustituyeron a los libros, pero las tablets nos recuerdan las tablas que utilizaban los antiguos @SPIEF Permalink 6:05 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb Riskiere deine Haut oder schweig   via @nzz Permalink 3:11 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb I am game! Under the condition that the public is never anonymous. Skin in the game all the way. Permalink 4:30 PM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb Yuuuuuuge conversation with @tylercowen (but photos don’t show recent 8lbs weight loss!)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:35 PM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb Fi ktir ktir amtél bil-lébnéné ghayra.   Permalink 3:05 PM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb лучший музей в мире Permalink 5:36 AM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb Bye Bye Dodd Frank, good riddance: pages & pages of regulations, nothing about skin in the game. Skin in the game >> all other regulations. Permalink 4:49 AM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb And another truth: linguists use circular definitions. Not science.   Permalink 12:41 AM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb The great truth: in countries whose official language is “Arabic”, Arabic is a 3rd language (except for Peninsula, v. religious pple & scholars): people are triglossic: easier to read/write in English/Turkish/French than in Arabic. Time for countries to use their own language. Permalink 12:22 AM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb Two GMO campaigners smearing me turned out to be abusers/spouse beaters. I don’t find it ethical to use it against them & their opinions. Likewise if a scientist has crazy ideas on race w/which I disagree, I would excoriate him, but never deny his other contributions. Gabish?   Permalink 9:19 AM – 22 May 2018

@nntaleb Aside from klueless Massimo’s usual unrigorous utterances: car mechanics, dentists, & plumbers are checked by users, can’t BS for a living (#skininthegame), BOTH at the level of individual & profession. Philosophers are checked by one another, hence citation ring & BS vending.   Permalink 7:27 AM – 22 May 2018

@nntaleb BUREAUCRAT-WARMONGER CLASS WITHOUT SKIN IN THE GAME Mr Pompeo, these ignorant & agressive actions to “promote peace security” have been promoting instability. Bureaucrats like you never learn from past mistakes, are not subjected to evolutionary selection.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 22 May 2018

@jaolavebo As reiterated in @nntaleb literature… Landmark lawsuit claims Monsanto hid cancer danger of weedkiller for decades   Permalink 3:40 AM – 22 May 2018

@nntaleb Bone marrow Permalink 5:19 PM – 21 May 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule, most “regrets” after one is caught’s aren’t regrets about having committed the action, but regrets about having been caught. Apologies count only when they are spontaneous, coming out of deep principles. Otherwise they are just an expression of submission. Permalink 3:09 PM – 21 May 2018

@ThomasSieckmann @nntaleb is this Fat Tony’s car?   Permalink 3:07 PM – 21 May 2018

@nntaleb You need to buy a copy of @davidgraeber’s “Bul***t Jobs”, about jobs that, if they didn’t exist, wouldn’t have to be invented. But there are b***t professions that can be eliminated w/o harm (& w/gains) Which is the most “b***t” profession? Permalink 9:45 AM – 20 May 2018

@nntaleb Reviews that get it are starting to come ‘Skin in the Game’: A Political Treatise for Liberty that Turns the Golden Rule Upside-Down | Arnold Kling   via @feeonline Permalink 8:55 AM – 20 May 2018

@nntaleb Complication w/o insight: Taking gloves off in my new technical but antiacademic book: uncensored thanks to pub house w @TuckerMax. Emergence of ProbabilityTwitter w/ @HarryDCrane, @ole_b_peters RealWldRisk co-founder @financequant & others fighting for clarity over nonsense. Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 May 2018

@KourdaN As a government employee, I have to say that I hate everything I am reading in SITG, mostly because it is painfully true. Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 May 2018

@nntaleb Nerds posting about Skin in the Game: “… but he is very, very rude to academics” do not realize that it actually makes people more interested in the book. Permalink 6:55 AM – 20 May 2018

@Castello_F Los aforismos de @nntaleb   Permalink 3:35 AM – 20 May 2018

@carlcarrie Excellent empirical paper co-authored by forecasting luminary Makridakis (@spyrosmakrid) on Machine Learning prediction – results suggest #ml is still in its infancy with lower relative performance to statistical & naive methods but with great potential   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:32 PM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb By contrast I went 2x on a group offsite w/the Swedish King (who is not considered part of the royal thingy in Europe), to discuss the Precautionary Pple. He flew economy w/us, then took a chartered bus. No instruction list. Permalink 4:26 PM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb I was invited for “tea” with a certain member of that royal family. I was handed instructions on how to behave, what to say, how to address him, who eats 1st, meaning to signal at all times that I was inferior. I found it unbearable & humiliating, broke the rules. But still. Permalink 4:14 PM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb I have some trouble figuring out the Brits: they are maximally politically correct & progressive in small things, yet accept to be (nominally) mere subjects of a hereditary royal family. They practically worship their present & future monarch. Permalink 3:28 PM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb The advantage of writing on your own terms: you can fully control the aesthetics. Writing in Latex resembles painting. New model: publishing under “STEM ACADEMIC PRESS”, an outfit for peer-reviewed texts, w/the business aspect controlled by @TuckerMax’s firm. Permalink 12:41 PM – 19 May 2018

@CMikaelThompson True; @nntaleb gives best explanation of Christological debates in early centuries of the Church.   Permalink 10:38 AM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb Closing in. Slowly. Like a detective story.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:02 AM – 19 May 2018

@ICCS2018 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Real World Risk Institute) has been confirmed as a speaker for #ICCS2018 @nntaleb #complexity #risk #SpeakerSeries Permalink 8:00 AM – 19 May 2018

@MargoWatroba Still on @nntaleb kick – it will be a while till I move on. One of my favorite quotes… “If you have more than one reason to do something (choose a doctor or veterinarian, hire a gardener or an employee, marry a person, go on a trip), just don’t do it.(…)” Permalink 9:03 PM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 5:09 PM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb The genetic prehistory of the Greater Caucasus   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb From Skin In the Game   Permalink 11:36 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb So if you like the NYT’s advocacy because it fits your orientation, you will give them a free pass for now. But you will overcompensate & distrust them heavily once they diverge ever so slightly from your views. Advocacy is not robust for a newspaper. Permalink 10:17 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb By explicitly choosing a “mission” & advocacy rather than sticking to journalism, the NYT & others have lost their only asset: public trust.   Permalink 9:50 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb Our precautionary principle explained: how to worry ONLY about systemic fat-tails.   Permalink 8:28 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb Michael Bonner’s review (he is a classical scholar). Permalink 6:02 AM – 18 May 2018

@john_f_hamer “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matter are those who’ve never had real world experience.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 11:17 PM – 17 May 2018

@SamuelGWalters Suppose that g:R -> R is a continuous function on the reals such that g(2x) = 2g(x) for all x. Does it follow that g(3x) = 3g(x) for all x? #math Permalink 8:16 PM – 17 May 2018

@DrMichaelBonner BREAKING NEWS! A draft offprint of my review of @nntaleb’s “Skin in the Game” to appear soon in The Dorchester Review (@DorchesterRev). I always try to take an unusual route into a topic. So I began here w/ the wisdom texts of the Akkadian Empire…   Permalink 6:27 PM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb The PDF will be available for free. Hard cover in color at about $20-30. Permalink 9:39 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb INCERTO’S TECHNICAL COMPANION, Vol 1 is almost complete. Only a matter of fixing the aesthetics, figuring out how to publish. Permalink 8:40 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb Given that @mpigliucci keeps spreading his article, here is the response.   Permalink 7:34 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb 4) In Mount Lebanon, Maronites & Shiites used to share a (Jewish) Neder (ندر, נדר), a pledge: if one child survives a threatening disease, the family performs some rituals or name child according to the other religion, sometimes even convert.   Permalink 6:49 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb 3) Differentiation of religions is new, caused by communication, exploding w/internet. Doura Europos: same room doubled as temple/synagogue/church. It had human representations. Pple could be all 3, or combination. Religion was much more local than global, pre-Saudi Barbaria. Permalink 6:38 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb 2) Some remnants of gnostic religions: Alevis, Alawis, Druze, etc. still maintain the Pagan practice of substituting religions: each individual can syncretize when in a Christian or Muslim environment. Permalink 6:32 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb 1) Problem w/modern monotheism (including a Protestant heresy called atheism) is the increased integrality, the “either/or”: you can’t be ⅓ Jewish, ⅓ Sunni, ⅓ Prostestant & rotate betw rituals. You can take pre-packaged syncretism: Cath/Orthodoxy/Shias but still indivisible. Permalink 6:24 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb Cuisine MAPS to culture, shows a difference betw “East Med” & “Middle East”. Stop mixing the 2: EAST MED (Turkey, Greece, Levant): olive oil, organo/basil/other herbs, wine, bread, hummus, squid ink, semi-f*** you attitude MIDDLE EAST (Arabia, Iraq, etc.): rarely the above.   Permalink 3:33 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb Friends, how can one consolidate this tweetstorm with all answers? Thanks   Permalink 3:26 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb An interesting result from a problem from @cuttheknot. Permalink 5:46 PM – 16 May 2018

@GreenRupertRead BREAKING: The upper house votes by 294 to 244 to preserve the E.U. environmental principles (incl the Precautionary Principle), to legally back animal sentience, and to have a genuinely strong environmental watchdog. >Result!< (Please RT) Permalink 9:24 AM – 16 May 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Amoeba’s survival   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 8:58 AM – 16 May 2018

@ektrit Correct. European Historiography is still suffering the invention of the word “Byzantine” and its application retroactively of the previous 15 centuries from the 19th and 20th century for political purposes. We owe to Taleb @nntaleb that discovery in general. Permalink 3:31 AM – 16 May 2018

@ektrit Absolutely believable. I endorse this article.   Permalink 12:41 AM – 16 May 2018

@nntaleb The worst possible thing you can teach someone is standard statistics without the mathematics of probability to rederive estimators. You end up with all the problems of fooled by randomness: few realize that p values are often BS.   Permalink 2:05 PM – 15 May 2018

@trishankkarthik This is the most interesting Twitter thread I’ve read all week. You have no idea how much I’ve learned about the colour blue this week.   Permalink 7:34 AM – 15 May 2018

@nntaleb The Levantine word for “dark” (for skin, shades of color, etc.) is ghami2 is the same as “deep” (diff from Arabic), from Semitic root עָמוֹק. The werb ghammi2 = to go deep underwater or underground. ghame2 غامق becomes عميق (3amiq) in Arabic. Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 May 2018

@nntaleb REVISED OK, OK, needs to be a closed form fuction, with a closed form inverse. Permalink 5:44 AM – 14 May 2018

@nntaleb @EGHaug and I showed how Financial economists were destroying knowledge as we had a far more sophisticated option trading heuristics (that deal with fat tails) before the standardized bad Gaussian statistics of Black Scholes.   Permalink 5:07 AM – 14 May 2018

@nntaleb BREAKING THE CHAIN OF TRANSMISSION In the past people in finance used to learn rich heuristics from elders who picked up from elders, etc. These days they learn from an ignorant B School professor who learned from books. The same with medicine.   Permalink 2:46 AM – 14 May 2018

@nntaleb Math Explorations: Looking for all members of the class of unbounded monotone increasing concave functions. cc:@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 May 2018

@ektrit Or being Taleb @nntaleb   Permalink 4:59 AM – 13 May 2018

@nntaleb To illustrate that the “health benefits” of the Mediterranean diet aren’t in the diet: people spend their lives climbing stairs and doing intermittent fasts. Permalink 3:47 AM – 13 May 2018

@nntaleb The health benefits of the “Mediterranean diet” aren’t in the food: people spend their lives climbing stairs and steep hills. Permalink 3:45 AM – 13 May 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with @Twhittermarsh is that Greeks had a very primitive color vocabulary to generate reliable spectral conclusions. No color blue until late. Look at family names: in Levant Aswad/Asmar/Ash2ar, or in France Lenoir, Lebrun, Leblanc, Leblond, etc. Permalink 2:10 AM – 13 May 2018

@nntaleb Attention GMO idiots, “scientism” promoters, & Monsantoists: side effects show up late. There is a methodology to figure out if something has a potentially bad systemic effect. There are zillions of way to deal with nature without messing it up. See   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:03 AM – 13 May 2018

@normonics Localism. Localism is not superior due to first-order benefits The contrary, Localism is often superior because it is only in local environments that one has the opportunity to detect and respond to n-order effects Permalink 2:03 PM – 12 May 2018

@CutTheKnotMath An Inequality with Two Variables from Awesome Math   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 7:52 AM – 12 May 2018

@Rhiju Hey @livemint , not sure if @nntaleb would agree with you depicting ‘Skin in the Game’ as a men’s fashion item in today’s frontpage. Permalink 1:45 AM – 12 May 2018

@nntaleb Belated posting of the NYU Tandon class party (students and former students). Permalink 10:13 AM – 11 May 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese loan words from Turkish, often Persan, Italian or French (Arabists & postcolonial low-IQ types don’t realize many French words came via Turkish) Professions ending with -ji: bustaji, kindarji. Sofra Oda Dukkan Trabzin Franco-Venitian: Nimra Balkon Assenseur Coiffeur Permalink 11:47 PM – 10 May 2018

@nntaleb What happens when you ovelay the autosomal on the J2 haplogroup? Gives us an idea of East Med. Like a detective story. (Very very preliminary). Permalink 1:28 PM – 10 May 2018

@nntaleb The busiest museum section I’ve ever visited Permalink 4:48 AM – 10 May 2018

@normonics Centralized, Industrialized Agriculture as epitomized in GMO industry is truly truly top-down-soviet-harvard-style-fragility Something libertarian-minded folks need to understand. # 8,9   Permalink 8:58 PM – 9 May 2018

@TropicalMBA Forget giving your opinion of @nntaleb ‘s newest book (  ), simply report how many times you’ve read it. (2, and counting…) #skininthegame Permalink 11:21 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb Given what we starting to know about ancient DNA thanks to Reich, @iosif_lazaridis & colleagues, we should start downgrading these verbose, confused, accounts & fabrications by classicists & historians. Greeks then were very, very similar to Greeks (& Western Turks) today   Permalink 9:49 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb The classical world is Western Asia/ Mediterranean. Little to do with “Europe” except for an anachronistic narrative. Permalink 6:13 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 6:11 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 6:10 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb I am standing next to the Bosphorus. The other side is Asia. So if the BBC wanted to do a Mary Beard style historical film, shd they cat pple from Stockholm for this side & pple from Tokyo on the other? “Europe” is a miscategory. Western Eurasia-Med is the proper ecology. Permalink 6:09 AM – 9 May 2018

@DA_Stockman Iran Wants War—You Can Tell By How Close They Put Their Country To Washington’s Military Bases!   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:31 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb Only bad news on pilgrimage to Hagia Sophia: 8 columns of porphyry — red marble —taken from the temple of Jupiter in Baalbeck Lebanon. Permalink 5:25 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb You claim you came for the history; the real reason is the loukums: Permalink 3:10 AM – 9 May 2018

@Lekapenos Exactly! The concept of Europe is a byproduct of the Classical world which was not limited to Europe ffs under any definition ffs   Permalink 9:14 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb Val Giddings @prometheusgreen is documented to be a true evil Monsanto shill. We detected the shoddiness when he poured standard negative comments about our Precautionary paper w/o having read it. Paid to spread msg: “pesticides=science” and smear scientists. Despicable!   Permalink 8:17 AM – 8 May 2018

@elalterego01 Monsanto’s WMD is showing it’s longterm effects in humans   , thank you @nntaleb for uncover this people Permalink 7:49 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese elections: 6 women elected, 2 Christian, 4 Muslim Permalink 7:45 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb Only 5 lbs! Permalink 7:06 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb Merhaba, Kalamar mürekkebini burada (İstanbul’da) iyi bir lokantada nerede bulabilirim? Teşekkürler Permalink 7:03 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb I lost weight.   Permalink 11:37 PM – 7 May 2018

@zeinshami11 When @nntaleb first started hating the NYT Permalink 10:12 AM – 7 May 2018

@nntaleb No, overeducated knuckleheads: If you can’t solve the problem, don’t take tail risks on it. WTF is it so hard to get?   Permalink 7:19 AM – 7 May 2018

@nntaleb The nickname for the city Permalink 3:24 AM – 7 May 2018

@nntaleb Dünya güzeli Permalink 3:16 AM – 7 May 2018

@nntaleb 5) The contrast for Wells was betw Michelangelo & the cuckoo clock. Next step: we can contrast grand design (French “enlightenment”) vs something small that works: cuckoo clocks. Permalink 2:51 PM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb 4) CH Cuckoo Clock vs French Terror, starting with: “In CH, they had brotherly love, they had 500y of democracy & peace – and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.” (O.Welles) Next level: universalism vs fractal particularism. Big ideas vs practical ones. Permalink 2:41 PM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb There are no successful and unsuccessful people. A few ones are just trying to be someone else. Permalink 12:28 PM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb And another one, written by a professional   Permalink 10:49 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb 3) is there or has there been any country where power is as distributed as CH? (Consider size of political sub-unit). Permalink 9:36 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, meant CH Permalink 8:09 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Friends, a CHF discussion thread. 1) Is Switzerland the only modern state that was entirely built from the bottom up? What are the main differences with pre-Bismark Germany other than CHF never had a Bismark? Did Napoleon actually DE-Centralize CHF? Permalink 8:06 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Look at this emergence of a lognormal, turning into power law (in progress) Permalink 7:24 AM – 6 May 2018

@dougvk ‘modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility’ – @nntaleb Permalink 7:05 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Another one, written by a professional   Permalink 6:28 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Had lunch w/a student of Marc Kac. Kac & Von Neumann were driving to the airport. VN who was driving fughot to stop at a light. A fierce cop pulled them over. Cop: Where are you going like this? VN: Istanbul The cop, confused, let them off VN: See, it pays to say the truth! Permalink 2:56 PM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb Remarkably, it is still a Mandelbrot set.   Permalink 2:16 PM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule, whenever your intuition conflicts with that of an economist, bet on your intuition. Economists are reverse indicators: they are ~always wrong. Permalink 7:13 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb In the process I am discovering that, because of the vowels é and o that don’t exist in Arabic, the Latin (actually Phoenician) script is vastly more effective! We need to set standards that match what pple use on social media. Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb Translating the Bed of Procrustes into Neo-Phoenician/Canaanite. For comments Permalink 6:36 AM – 5 May 2018

@Megadogyourmom4 Permalink 4:49 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 4:48 AM – 5 May 2018

@RUGBY_STR_COACH When @Physical_Prep & @RUGBY_STR_COACH meet in argentina to discuss #skininthegame, to deadlift and eat red meat. It can only mean #flanneuringaroundtheworld. Respect to the godfather @nntaleb Permalink 4:14 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb The evidence…   Permalink 4:09 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb There is no known instance of an [PUT NAME HERE: Italian, etc.] calling themselves an [PUT NAME HERE: Italian, etc.], particularly if their literature isn’t extant. In fact such a claim abt Phoenicians (Canaanites) is false: see thread.   Permalink 4:07 AM – 5 May 2018

@TMFStoffel Never seen the bulk of @nntaleb’s work summed up so cleanly   Permalink 7:00 PM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb Now the “organic” book reviews are coming by the load (now that, 3 months later, the press can no longer review the book). Organic book review: written by someone genuinely interested in the topic, not some hack.   Permalink 2:19 PM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb Every time you give up on Trump, something surprising happens.   Permalink 11:17 AM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb Why did @republicofmath get so upset over this? Permalink 11:12 AM – 4 May 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Let them be integers too Permalink 11:06 AM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb #FF Instead of enrolling in a boring math or probability class, follow MathTwitter, particularly Maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 7:35 AM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb I treat my friends as temporary pre-enemies, my enemies as temporary pre-friends, and my post-friends as permanent enemies. Permalink 7:18 AM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb And, by the way, this is our GMO page   Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb Fraud: This low-intellect journo, @MJGerson, devoid of scientific reasoning, claims to speaking in the name of *Science* and arbitrate what is pro or anti-science. Good news: idiots like him bring attention to GMOs: tell someone “nothing to worry about” & see how he reacts.   Permalink 5:59 PM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 5:00 PM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb No, no, no. The “empirical distribution is NOT empirical. See   Permalink 1:48 PM – 3 May 2018

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic with a dash of @nntaleb wisdom sprinkled on top. #academia For more visit   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb On #WorldPressFreedomDay let us stand in solidarity with the journalists murdered, tortured, and imprisoned by the Trump administration. Permalink 9:51 AM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb We didn’t break the mafia by reasoning w/its members. Remember: you’ll never break special intrsts, lobbies, journalistic monoculturists & academic rent seekers by convincing them, but 1) by exposing them, 2) working on their customers. Accountability, put Skin in their game. Permalink 5:59 AM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb Closing in even more. How spoken Lebanese is closer to Syriac in structure. Nerd linguists Arabists s.a. @PhDniX or @lameensouag 1) aren’t even fluent in spoken Lebanese or Syriac (#skininthegame) 2) nor able to understand orthogonality to get it.   Permalink 4:27 AM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb 3) Herodian etc. Are Arabists stupid? Most certainly. Permalink 3:30 PM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb 2) Berytus was called Laodicea in Phoenice. We had the 2 provinces Phoenicia Maritima /Phoenicia Libanensis Zaharias Permalink 3:29 PM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb (cont) To see why social scientists are dangerous & make you do the opposite, look at this BS.   Permalink 2:44 PM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Added a section to explain that Goldman Sachs survived for 149 years by explicitly avoiding SOME tail risks and taking a lot of other risks. Permalink 2:43 PM – 2 May 2018

@animeshs Sometimes you come across lines that carry so much truth in such less words, that you can’t help but wish put them on a frame! Here is one such from #skininthegame from @nntaleb Permalink 11:10 AM – 2 May 2018

@tlhote « Le rôle de la Presse est de représenter les citoyens face au pouvoir et non pas d’exercer le pouvoir sur les citoyens. La Presse ne joue plus ce rôle. Twitter permet à des citoyens comme moi d’aller contre les pouvoirs. » Et Macron veut contrôler la parole française sur le Web   Permalink 9:24 AM – 2 May 2018

@Musa_alGharbi @nntaleb Ta-Nehisi Coates’ work empowers academics, media types, social elites to revel in a “dystopian fantasy world under the pretense of ‘keeping it real’ — and get all the perks of religious fundamentalism without ever putting any #skininthegame” :   Permalink 8:35 AM – 2 May 2018

@trishankkarthik Also, funny how journos defend “freedom of information” when it’s revenge porn targeting weak college girls, but not… speech.   Permalink 6:50 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, Social Media allows me to make reviewers accountable by exposing the READING COMPREHENSION problems for some reviewers. Reviews come and go, errors by reviewers stay.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:09 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Role of the Press: Represent citizens agst power, not exercize power over citizens. Press lost the role. Twitter allows CITIZENS like me to go against powers: Big Ag (Monsanto) Militarism & Saudi lobbies Social science/Academia BS Bankers & The Press!   Permalink 5:48 AM – 2 May 2018

@spyrosmakrid I am organizing a big competition (  ) with 100,000 to determine the relative accuracy of ML versus stat methods. If you do not believe the current paper wait until the end of May Permalink 5:38 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb More and more details showing Charlatan Lynas (@mark_lynas) to be a shoddy character –from his reaction to any threat to the agri-chemical interests and his techniques to smear people & scientists.   Permalink 5:35 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Footnote in SKIN IN THE GAME, on how the Press will self-destruct because it is acting against its own public. Permalink 5:26 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Take-away from the Gawker episode: Most of the press sided w/Gawker vs citizens; citizens sided ag. Gawker. Severe agency problem: Press working against citizens! Agency Principle: doctor shd never side w/interests of his profession when they conflict w/those of patients. Permalink 5:18 AM – 2 May 2018

@jordantpine As someone who has often compared hundreds of product *surveys* to product *sales,* I can testify that this axiom from @nntaleb’s #skininthegame is unquestionably true. Permalink 5:20 PM – 1 May 2018

@SeloSlav @nntaleb’s growing popularity online, especially on Twitter, can be partially explained by the fact that he effectively channels the “esprit de NEET” at a God-tier level.   Permalink 4:41 PM – 1 May 2018

@naval Twitter is television for intellectuals. Permalink 9:19 PM – 30 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is skin in the game   Permalink 10:28 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@MimeticValue He that writeth in blood and proverbs doth not want to be read, but learnt by heart. – Nietzsche If there’s one book from the past 50 years I wish to memorize by heart, it’s The Bed of Procrustes by @nntaleb.   Permalink 8:35 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The East Med Project is developing: My Hobby w/@PZalloua   Permalink 7:22 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This summarizes my entire message. Reflects what every risk taker with skin in the game will tell you. The exact opposite of the logic of BS vendors such as intrusive nudgeboys @R_Thaler, @CassSunstein & other klueless academic rent seekers. cc:@ole_b_peters Permalink 6:26 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@drjohnm Doctors not yet signed on as employees, please read Book 4 (Wolves Amoung Dogs) in @nntaleb Skin in the Game. It’s damning. Helps explain burnout. Cc @RogueRad Permalink 5:52 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@thackerpd Weedkiller found in granola and crackers, internal FDA emails show by @careygillam   Someone needs to explain to Tamar Haspel and her editors at @WaPoFood that this is what real journalism looks like. You use documents and interview toxicology experts. Permalink 5:44 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@normonics “the internal documents obtained by the Guardian show the FDA has had trouble finding any food that does not carry traces of the pesticide [glyphosate]”   Permalink 5:32 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The picture is horrible. But OK interview.   via @Esquire Permalink 4:48 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@nksky Money has very little to do with you being rich. Important aspect in your life but not the only one. @nntaleb via @maharasiya Permalink 8:20 PM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Have enemies; but make sure that they think about you much, much more than you think about them. Permalink 4:10 PM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb It is also the North blindly copying the Mediterranean (olive oil, wine, civilization…)   Permalink 1:33 PM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A draft of my lecture at Darwin College, Cambridge summarizing all my ideas on Fat Tails without mathematics.   For comments. cc:@ole_b_peters ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:18 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@WeAreLebanon The colors of sunset in #Beirut By @migeal101 #WeAreLebanon Permalink 10:59 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Baddna n7ella: Kif bnéktob l-lebnéné (l-Ken3ané jdid)? El 8 amma gh? (ana bfaddél l gh lan khafféf l-nimràt) El š amma sh? (ana bfaddél l sh lan khafféf l-tén2it) Ba3d fi 2enna el “x” mush mista3mlé. Bin 7itta 3al 3, amma kh, amma 7? Badda jalsé!   Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The point, @jordanbpeterson isn’t Syria or nonSyria, it is a general rule: Avoid using twitter influence to spread material about something you know little or nothing about & can cause harm, such as Syria or systemic tail risks of genetic manipulations.   Permalink 7:15 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@Rainmaker1973 Graphical concept of the definition of sine and cosine   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb #SundayMorning Permalink 4:35 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) I do not derive my income from some philantropy or Paltreon where I have to act inspirational & suck up to a crowd of followers cutting me a charity check. I derive my income from financial & business activites in the real world. I don’t owe nothing to nobody. Permalink 7:04 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The imbecile doesn’t get that 1) My judgment of pple has NOTHING to do with whether they like my book 2) Social life, where relationships are nurtured, is for PRIVATE citizens, nothing to do with intellectual life bound to rigor/truth 3) Follow inspirational charlatans not me   Permalink 6:31 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@ektrit Retweeting this to explain Taleb @nntaleb again, seeing the tweet against Jordan Peterson, but I’m sure only few will understand FREE THINKING.   Permalink 5:59 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Time to upset the Arabists & linguists:   Permalink 5:53 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The wisdom of Salomon: he had to rule between two women both claiming to be the mother of an infant. By offering to split the child in half, he figured out who was the mother: she was the one who cared the most. She had more #SkinintheGame cc: @asymmetricinfo   Permalink 5:35 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I was told (but could not verify) that Syrian exports >30% higher than before the war. Factories are busy. If true, people are making things out of necessity. Overcompensation: the reverse of the Saudi disease. The press shows you pictures of war zones, not the rest.   Permalink 5:03 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@pravind_paul @nntaleb ‘s idea of neomania and how architects with no skin in the game design buildings they would never live in, and instead choose classical structures as their residence of choice   Permalink 1:30 AM – 28 Apr 2018