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Tetlock, Payoffs, Urbanism, Arbitrage, Estonia, IQ, LOCALISM, Assange, Psychology, Christakis, Belgrade, Nate Silver, Pinker, @AOC , Peterson | Twitter

@nntaleb 15 years ago, I went into psychology trying to figure out how humans misunderstand probability. All I figured out is how psychologists don’t understand probability. Permalink 9:39 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Our great ally… https://twitter.com/marwa__osman/status/1120712087255252993   Permalink 9:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More precise & accurate representation of the mistake; fixed typos. pic.twitter.com/Z2lqshFo3y Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaner @ptetlock’s (Phil the rat) mistake. [more precise] Science is hard Risk is hard. pic.twitter.com/Z3VYClErdD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exact Distribution of different types of payoffs & their conflation in the verbalistic psychology literature. [ref to my bone with @Ptetlock and the forecasting gurus who live on a salary (nonprofit)] pic.twitter.com/7LH5Xz9VWi Permalink 6:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #reputation Permalink 12:15 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 4/4 understanding @nntaleb ‘s recent paper here is also critically important to understanding what can go wrong when you approximate financial markets with brownian motion: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1117456873605742592   Permalink 12:06 PM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Markers of aging: 1- You stop learning something new 2- You talk too much about aging 3- The things you forget aren’t the things you should be forgetting Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why I call @Ptetlock a rat. He SIGNED on this paper then renegged & stabbed me in the back WITHOUT even contacting me (to get forecasting contracts). pic.twitter.com/qxnjM8yKVT Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Can someone ask @michaelshermer to explain the equations he is commenting on? Twitter is not generous with BS vendors. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1120363967358963714   Permalink 9:43 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am Christian. I live 11 miles from Salafis. I have skin in the game. And I tell you in past 10y Shiites paid a horrible price. Same during Ottoman era. Permalink 7:22 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Actually… Shiites! They paid the heaviest price. Salafis have been butchering them without much outcry. https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1120162013857161218   Permalink 6:28 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@normonics To @nntaleb’s point: you can only learn from an academic how to be an academic Instead of conveying embodied knowhow from a place of deep understanding, an academic will formulate answers to “essay questions” and “explain his reasoning” in order to keep his GPA up https://twitter.com/hostageklller/status/1119367322379202562   Permalink 6:01 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo: the integration is over any subset of A. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb At the center of my problem with Phil “the rat” Tetlock @Ptetlock is only a matter of…elementary calculus upon which EVERYTHING in his “forecasting” work is built. Elementary. pic.twitter.com/Dn67PIPOz4 Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@TalebQuotes Decline starts with the replacement of dreams with memories and ends with the replacement of memories with other memories. Permalink 10:42 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you define yourself as “localist”, nobody frames you in the “partisan” box; both the “left” & the “right” take you for one of them. The only people in favor of centralization are lobbyists, bureaucrats, & DC parasites. Yet the world is centralizing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:31 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Where I show situations (very common in real life) where you NEED to be a poor forecaster to do well in life and business, and vice versa. [Long proofs] (with Some comments on the “scholarship” of the dishonorable Phil “the rat” Tetlock @PTetlock) pic.twitter.com/4Qhnclxlwt Permalink 3:44 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@sustain05 “Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today.” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb pic.twitter.com/zPSyBz6Fz7 Permalink 1:52 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@GOATProfessor Seeing Holy Week tweets about Jesus being persecuted by “White patriarchy” of the Roman Empire. That is false history and this piece from @nntaleb shows the problematic nature of that claim. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday for those who celebrate it today. Permalink 5:13 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb We should have a plan to eliminate Google. https://twitter.com/business/status/1119831495529594882   Permalink 2:23 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@kpchand07 I would urge you to read about IQ as it is a discredited and pseudo-science technique. Many “studies” checking country level IQ’s use “proxy” tests to establish IQ. IQ itself is information-less. @nntaleb has written in this area: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE CARPENTER FALLACY In our Precautionary Paper we warn against using “experts” in biology to get tail risks of GMOs, even if they aren’t shills: just as a carpenter is not the one to use to compute probabilities of tail payoffs at a roulette table. https://twitter.com/Benjami47068297/status/1119594805422624768   Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our current system (urbanism) is incapable of learning from its mistakes. https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp/antifragile-urbanism-skin-in-the-game-and-building-what-works/   Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No! Rationality is more rigorous than shallow @R_Thaler BS https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Lébnéné (In Lebanese): Iza shéra3t l fehmén ana brba7 Iza shéra3t l finnas huwwé byerba7 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114185871841026049   Permalink 4:30 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@bWestenra “There is no such thing as ‘rationality’ of a belief, there is rationality of action.” – @nntaleb, via @rorysutherland 6/12 Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@dianadarke #NotreDame #Architecture #Europe #Syria Acknowledging Europe’s debt to earlier cultures – via a recent interview with @TheNationalUAE https://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/qalb-loze-inside-the-syrian-church-that-influenced-notre-dame-s-architecture-1.851385   Permalink 2:21 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 3:54 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is more technically, a RE-conversion. At least, the way converts themselves present it. And ironically it may be the result of and reaction to Wahabisms. https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Muslims-convert-to-Christianity-in-Syrian-town-once-besieged-by-ISIS-587021   Permalink 7:03 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem of these Middleburry idiots is that by attacking and muzzling @CharlesMurray they made a hero out of a mountebank (and, as far as his report of my encounter with him, a bald-faced fabricator). https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1118995502408671234   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama, many of the destroyed Syrian churches and monuments PRECEDE Notre Dame. https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1118945629517099009   Permalink 2:32 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Arbitrage boundary pic.twitter.com/dsJGLqqxaE Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@GregorySMcMurry According to the De Broglie–Bohm theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Broglie%E2%80%93Bohm_theory   Black Swan Man is correct. Any information that we could possibly obtain from the past wouldn’t help us because there are nonlocal hidden variables uniting our present & the past into one totality https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1118861754015080449   Permalink 1:37 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Better have these just OK, plus friends/family, plus ability to sleep well, than be a hot shot, billionaire, or King. @VerginDen has is right. https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1118868537706205186   Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Estonia. https://twitter.com/graafik/status/1118832590432215041   Permalink 6:43 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #blackswanmobile #timetravel #flaneuring #AmorFati pic.twitter.com/bVNkdyV05s Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@ThomasGrava La vraie différence en politique n’est pas une gradation “droite” vs “gauche” mais plutôt “Grecque” vs “Romaine”. “Grecque” préférant la théorie à la pratique. “Romaine” préférant la pratique à la théorie. (Théorie de la ‘Décentralisation Fractale’ @nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/HL8VbFTiRE Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Alas… https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1118503155581407232   Permalink 8:13 AM – 17 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Ship of Theseus. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1118349975606325248   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY DU JOUR The information content of your tweet is a (very) nonlinear function of the probability a subject NOT being discussed, or the language used not being bland & common. Same for conversation. Same for everything. Especially business. pic.twitter.com/2dYRqWnbJk Permalink 6:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #money Permalink 4:42 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 5 They don’t tell you that you are more likely + to learn a foreign language in a bar than in a classroom + to learn mathematics while trading than doing homework + that schoolteachers are a great model of what not to become when you grow up Permalink 2:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am surprised it is taking so long before someone finds in Hugo’s novel Notre Dame de Paris (The Hunchback of ND) a sentence that vaguely predicts yesterday’s fire. Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@FattestFatTony The pencil necks dont understand, @nntaleb is what the Jamaicans call a #Shotta… Likkle man, nah test nah #Shotta… https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1118226014113607681   Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@StillmanMD Doctors aren’t just #fooledbyrandomness, they’re taken for a ride by lying #BigPharma! @normonics @nntaleb @trishankkarthik @FattestFatTony https://twitter.com/JAMAInternalMed/status/1118167592710103043   Permalink 11:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 4 That debt helps growth & “innovation” (promoted by bankers) + Neither the Industrial Revolution (Brittain) nor the technological one (Silicon Valley) were financed by debt. + Debt is for wars, crony capitalism, bailing out friendly companies. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@EthanHBellamy Love this from @nntaleb. I’m the Chairman Mao of parenting. pic.twitter.com/O5HeNnQVan Permalink 8:03 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SCHOLARSHIPS FOR WOMEN ————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 7:09 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In general, when people selfstyle themselves “entrepreneur”, “polymath”, or something of the sort, they’re not. Real entrepreneurs calls themselves “restaurant chain CEO”, “Ski equipment manufacturer”, “kidney imaging importer”… Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty, https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Politics_and_Ethics_under_Uncertainty   https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/1118117227285426176   Permalink 4:46 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@tripoli187 So what are you trying to imply? That northern euros can lay claim to Mediterranean & near eastern civilisations of ancient antiquity, when culturally & racially they were not the same people & played no role? Permalink 12:14 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@normonics “A paper should be written like a car manual not a f#*$in chapter in a romance novel” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:53 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Learning about #IQ by turning @nntaleb teachings into cartoons. Simplifying to under 50 words without losing any content is hard. I hope I nailed it [IQ correlates, part 1 of x]. #science #psychology pic.twitter.com/ZuubQI8YIX Permalink 11:41 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Never pathologize (bounded) failure. Pathologize the refusal to try. Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t get that in real life one is not paid in frequency but in dollars. Fail frequently, stay convex. Learn to fail. https://twitter.com/michaelskolnik/status/1117788896321048577   Permalink 11:09 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) Phil the Rat Tetlock @ptetlock would probability spread “criticism” by fortune tellers if he found any. Here is how fake the article is. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116317447307526148   Permalink 9:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1) Academia is suicidal. In order to discredit me “Phil the rat” @Ptetlock (“repeatedly stab a friend in the back Phil tetlock”) spreads a linkbait written by a phantom “mathematician”, which he didn’t read (he didn’t realize there is NO fat tails in the discussion). pic.twitter.com/jLLQi7FkH0 Permalink 9:28 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point is that people who f***ck with you online don’t dare to do so offline. Permalink 9:22 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why is it that people are surprised to NOT find an ogre when they run into me offline? pic.twitter.com/9f6uTUXJ0d Permalink 9:15 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:10 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@holland_tom “#Naples is the most mysterious city in Europe, the only city of the ancient world which didn’t perish like Troy, Nineveh or Babylon. It’s the only city in the world which didn’t drown in the huge shipwreck of ancient civilization. Naples is a Pompei which was never buried.” Permalink 7:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 This is what @nntaleb has been saying https://twitter.com/humanprogress/status/1117600681219772416   Permalink 6:42 PM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/5KkDwNJPDS Permalink 8:57 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb MATHEMATICAL FINANCE DU JOUR A robust method for tail option pricing. pic.twitter.com/5LqIcg6Lth Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@n_santama Last week, we had the great luck of visiting Baalbek/Heliopolis (Greek for “Sun City”), a city inhabited uninterruptedly for 8-9000 years! It is built in the Bekaa valley, between the (still snowy) spectacular Eastern & Western Mountain ranges of Lebanon 1/9… #Baalbek #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Bm4KiN90M2 Permalink 1:08 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@MccluskyMark Super cool outcome of @nntaleb’s #rwri is the fun connections it’s led to, from complexity scientists like @normonics, rebel authors like @GuruAnaerobic, nocturnal philosophers like @trishankkarthik, market decoders like @mikeharrisNY and global oil magnates like @SeloSlav. pic.twitter.com/Cw8hsfvV9J Permalink 12:37 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And in Lucky Luke (a French cartoon), Averell Dalton is the most stupid. pic.twitter.com/zlzFUvpkj8 Permalink 9:19 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@AhsanDeliri I was wondering why @nntaleb is under so much noisy baseless attacks. Then it hit me. He studies the root of all fields in life. Risk under uncertainty. His works touch on medicine, politics, economics, business, health, nutrition, entrepreneurship, information theory. Permalink 8:39 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo pic.twitter.com/9wv47TkMGS Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb INVERSE QUIZ DU JOUR Is there a mistake of exposition? Or it is my derivation that is wrong. pic.twitter.com/FmoTKLq7NI Permalink 5:21 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated, implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@paulportesi Is it just me or is there an inordinate amount of noise directed at @nntaleb. It seems like record levels. Coming from every direction. He must be doing something right and striking a nerve. He’s agitating the enemy. Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@inlukka Light green shows the natural boundaries of the union. pic.twitter.com/7Qpk3KwuVE Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ozmudurvekili dear mr taleb the newly elected secular mayor of izmir wants to establish a mediterranean union pls rt & show support https://twitter.com/izmirbld/status/1115903326636445698   Permalink 11:29 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ggreenwald The only 2 times I can remember establishment liberals like @HillaryClinton and @SenSchumer uniting with and cheering Trump Admin is when (a) he bombed Syria and (b) they indicted Assange (Schumer also cheered moving embassy to Jerusalem). That says a lot about their values. Permalink 9:25 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The Ancient Egyptians represented females as light skinned, males as dark. Simply, sun exposure. [Met in NY] In 19tn C. Damascus, women were never exposed to the sun, with shielded inner gardens. To “stay white and avoid aging” (“la tdalla bayda w ma tja33éd”) pic.twitter.com/UDrBPgbXr8 Permalink 7:05 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 13) The National IQ/Skills regression. This charlatan, the researcher @GarettJones wants us to believe in *race=intelligence* but is not intelligent enough to hide from us the data points. You can draw a line of any slope into this. (cc:@EconTalker) pic.twitter.com/JuB9pl9wp1 Permalink 7:00 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@Brilliant_Ads True story pic.twitter.com/kkI1V2so4p Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@NateAFischer For years I’d seen @PeterRex do things that defied conventional wisdom but produced extraordinary results. In Antifragile @nntaleb helped me understand the rationale behind these actions. https://twitter.com/peterrex/status/1116399308750725121   Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 12) My latest details in the busting of “correlation” IQ-something. I noted that when I saw the graphs book by mountebank @CharlesMurray IQ is uninformative under nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/VbeyCPbyTG Permalink 5:48 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And if you need to refer to race, use the 3 ROBUST geographical designations: Caucasian (i.e. Western Eurasian), Subsaharan, East Asian, (not more than 4). “White” is indicative of purity, not race. Permalink 5:13 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The first time we used “ergodic” in connection with the Precautionary Principle was in an unpublished paper with Aaron Brown in 2013. Before we knew of @ole_b_peters. But we didn’t formulate the math then. Earlier, presented in Fooled by Randomness. cc:@yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/cnBjxX8T04 Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb By “Nordicist” I mean Northern European supremacists. Permalink 4:40 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Don’t use “White Supremacist”. Use Nordicist. Please. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:34 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 11) David Becker is the source of the study: quite alarming handwaving with clueless statistics. In later papers they use “proxies” to obtain IQ. The author of the article is @JamesPsychol James Thompson, a nonacademic psychologic with SINISTER obsessions. pic.twitter.com/Nu9w5Kj0Zr Permalink 3:32 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is good news: people learning to take ergodicity into account for dynamics !!! pic.twitter.com/MP5G4138Iv Permalink 3:11 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Re: Roger Scruton. Why I no longer do interviews with UK journalists. Nobody should. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 6:16 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@Firsou This is the thinnest building in Beirut, Al-Ba3sa aka “The Grudge”. It’s two feet wide at minimum and was built by one brother who wanted to obstruct another’s view of the sea. Is there a place for building out of spite in the eternal way @normonics ? pic.twitter.com/Ltgk5l0K9L Permalink 4:18 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 10) One can raise IQ points by 2 STF just by training, so it can’t be genetic. PS- I’ve been getting 1000s of such messages since I’ve posted the IQ piece by Nordist supremacist trolls. Incidentally, my “co-ethnics” score high on the test. pic.twitter.com/o6VWleKybQ Permalink 12:22 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM One person to a life partner:”I deal w/ mundane matters: where to live, what to eat, where to educate the children, etc. You focus on centrally important ones: geopolitical relations, tensions w/Russia, future of technology…” Let the State do the *important* things… Permalink 11:16 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@ddelruss People need to stop with IQ – NNT has already very publicly shown why it should not be used. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116342266195476481   Permalink 9:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 9) I am gently asking @zerohedge to retract that piece. Now. Permalink 7:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 6) Fail to get that growth is not driven by AVERAGE but by EXTREMES that depend on variance 7) Even if effect is as claimed, it is drowned into variance to make it usuable as immigration policy. 8) It is IMMORAL to emprison people in fake boxes!!! My PIECE https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 7:15 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) ALL of these studies fail to account for cultural aspects of testing. 3) Main researcher @GarettJones doesn’t know what NOISE means. 4) Similar previous “research” did same for Irish, Southern Slavs, etc. who have now caught w/rest 5) A few data points can flip IQ/Performance! Permalink 7:12 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: 1/n @ZeroHedge published a post on “country IQ” meant to justify that some races are “genetically inferior”, hence bound to remain poor because of genetic defects. 1) The article was written by a charlatan, James Thompson using shoddy statistics (see my Medium piece) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116074860449619968   Permalink 7:08 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@DineshDSouza Think of all the stuff we wouldn’t know without Assange. He was our media when we had no media to speak of. And we still don’t! Give the man a medal @wikileaks Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS ——————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 5:47 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@derek_j_morris Confirmed it myself pic.twitter.com/R5lZKLzzcT Permalink 5:42 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The interesting thing is that it took one single @Wolfram Mathematica command to prove *by theorem* that the 2000K article in @NautilusMag is fraudulent and the author an impostor. One single command. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115684446081040386   Permalink 5:29 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb N7na zghar, w b3yun l a3adé kbar Hinné khashab 7awr, n7na lalkhashab minshar W7yét Zamzam wTiiba w l nabé l mkhtar Ma bnebné l deir illa min 7ajar 3akkar! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116093721597050880   Permalink 4:01 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Today, they made Jullian Assange a martyr. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Study something old but not visibly useful (classics), something modern and useful (accounting, coding), never something new and not visibly useful. Permalink 8:25 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@42cohen @nntaleb Exactly. I’ve repeatedly tutored students who were struggling and, simply by updating their “software” and creating real-world motivation, achieved psychometrically implausible results. Huge variance above 100 IQ renders it useless + dangerous. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU”>  pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU Permalink 7:11 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem with the IQ-race quacks like @StefanMolyneux is that their talking points are designed to deal w/humanities schoolteachers. So a quack with the intellect of a guacamole dip like Molyneux who can’t tell a correlation from a fountain pen is a spokesman for “science”. pic.twitter.com/ZT5NIzRnkZ Permalink 4:09 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Mediterranean cultures actually have tall shaming. “homo lungus raro sapiens”, “tawil habil”, “Troppo lungo non fu mai buono”, “Uomo lungo, testa corta” etc. See Reich (2018) @Steve_Sailer The closer to old settled societies, the more tall shaming. Reverse in roaming hunters https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1116090455706333184   Permalink 2:40 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The beauty of physics is that it can rigorously predict things nobody has seen before, before the emergence of any empirical evidence. Compare to fraudulent fields like psychology that overfit from naive “empirical evidence” to predict nothing. https://twitter.com/NSF/status/1115964620186030080   Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Aramé kif ולי עמ נגאררב נכתב בלחרפ לאראמאי שו ביתלע מננא לשעלאי? Permalink 12:53 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Jarrabét éktob Llébnéné bl 3arabé. Ma 3am tmshé! Bl Latiné a7san bktir. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116061453235228673   Permalink 12:43 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb هاللء ازا كتبنا بلحرف هيدا بيمشي امما ما بيمشي؟ كيف بنكتوب لé؟ ولo/ou? Permalink 12:32 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Finally!!! https://twitter.com/eastmedmonitor/status/1116031424967204865   Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@DrCirillo A little preview of the forthcoming paper on “violence” with @nntaleb. pic.twitter.com/5dGLRHAPiN Permalink 10:41 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Excited to get the book of @NAChristakis as I am trying to go deeper into the notion of fractal (multiscale) localism & see what’s wrong w/my thesis: It isn’t individuals vs societies but fractal gradations, each w/specific dynamics, (contra the selfish gene philosophastering) pic.twitter.com/gbTxHrOKpu Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2019 Things to do list! https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/1115968097121259521   Permalink 6:57 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer https://www.academia.edu/38762815/Medicine_and_Risk_Transfer?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating why you had to say it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:50 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@LieraMarco L’asimmetria nel trasferimento di rischi nella medicina. “Mi stai prescrivendo le statine perché mi fa bene o perché vuoi evitare che i miei eredi ti facciano causa?” E altri esempi. Problema molto americano e (ancora) poco italiano. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432   Permalink 4:48 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/eD1X3qQMU6 Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@normonics Both globalism AND nationalism are monolithic *absorbing* identities, smoothing over and homogenizing where there ought to be rich variety https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 4:12 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@RandPaul A balanced federal budget isn’t a pie-in-the-sky dream or empty rhetoric. Once again, I am introducing a concrete plan that is achievable. Learn more here: https://www.paul.senate.gov/news/dr-rand%C2%A0paul-introduces-%E2%80%98pennies-plan%E2%80%99-balanced-budget   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b”>  pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b Permalink 7:50 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@MilenaRodban My fellow Americans, the tax preparation industry and its powerful lobby are abominations that continue to wield undue influence over our lives. We must unite against it. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/congress-is-about-to-ban-the-government-from-offering-free-online-tax-filing/   Permalink 6:59 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@KendraSirak I’m getting excited for our session #AncientDNAinServiceofArchaeology to be held at #SAA2019. Looking forward to seeing many of our colleagues from both archaeology and genetics on Friday (4/12) from 1-5pm in 110 Galisteo (session 253) @JakobSedig pic.twitter.com/vQdbVgTj4U Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@thackerpd Province gave $720K to fired chief medical officer Eilish Cleary https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/eilish-cleary-health-settlement-1.4191543   Radio-Canada took Health Department to court to make severance information public “When fired, Cleary was studying #glyphosate, a controversial herbicide used extensively in New Brunswick” Permalink 6:12 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@Monsantobuster Taleb’s is a peer-reviewed published paper. If it was “wrong”, why didn’t pseudomathematician Clayton (who has NO publications) write to journal? It is shameful that academics spread this smear campaign by Nate Silver ag. Taleb Paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@ektrit I owe it to Taleb @nntaleb to understand that ethno-orthodoxy is basically Single God Paganism, you know, Christ helps only my people, not yours. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1115583251458985984   Permalink 4:57 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Paganism is decentralized theology.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:52 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The asymmetry comes from the fact that someone very very incompetent will be incompetent at everything. Someone competent at something may be domain specific. That raises correlation IQ-performance between .12 and .4 Permalink 6:48 PM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Did you read my paper, Mr Caroll to decide whether he knows anything about it? Permalink 11:23 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Tony, a year later. (Fellow trader Anthony Glickman, aka rabbi Ozer Glickman). “Life is long gamma”, he said. https://twitter.com/markric41763223/status/1115302776307896321   Permalink 10:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid Nassim’s originality and insights always surprises me even when he makes a simple comment for a medical paper. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432   Permalink 10:02 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risks, a comment invited by @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/VJRvfup5aS Permalink 8:56 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Visibly, people are now getting my point. https://twitter.com/crimsonceo/status/1115238408690053122   Permalink 7:22 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Humanities degrees are very valuable (w/o ideological professors), provided it is complemented with real world apprenticeships (accounting, etc.) . It is degrees in psychology and social “science” full of theories that are not just worthless but work in reverse. https://twitter.com/greekhistorypod/status/1114966071746994178   Permalink 5:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IQ not even useful for clinical cases:∃ targeted tsts. A Serbian doctor who works w/dementia/Alzheimer reached out to say my IQ post was circulating in his circles (& psychologists hate it): Doctors use dementia-specific cues; nothing to do with IQ. https://twitter.com/KourdaN/status/1115209819449974784   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More general case, the proportion pic.twitter.com/K1rT6KBmpy Permalink 4:08 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point of adding dead people to your sample is to show the effect of the asymmetry: 1) it you hit someone on the head w/a hammer, he will be bad at everything (hence correlation), 2) there is no reverse equivalent. So IQ effects come from borderline clinical people. GAbish? Permalink 3:04 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@MacDBollinger Mr Taleb @nntaleb I must recommend you and your followers to watch Youtubechannel Swedish Investors excellent graphic summary of your books. Fantastik work! @InvestorSwedish https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEesADB0Jk0&list=PLI84Sf0aDgaw-Wy93jPAw4gcNxzNwpP9s&index=3   Permalink 2:31 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaned up on the plane home between twitter arguments. pic.twitter.com/ROQpNofqyU Permalink 4:30 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some analytics on the ride home from #LibertyCon19: IQ #RacePeddlersIgnorantofProbabilitySuchAsTheQuackPeterson don’t get the effect of the equivalent of adding dead people to your sample. pic.twitter.com/vWIq5rCPQn Permalink 3:38 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ If you include 20% dead people in IQ tests, what will the minimum correlation IQ/performance be if the rest is random? #nonlinearity Permalink 12:45 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delta’s olive oil is olive oil. Air France’s is 65% seed oil. When you hire “managers” w/o the filtering of SITG, they cut corners (Boeing, Air France, paper quality for publishers) and save pennies. But the manager improved “profitability”. Like short tail options for a tick. pic.twitter.com/zPtnR1gSJD Permalink 12:25 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 2/2 This passage, from Taleb’s The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tales especially comes to mind. I think 10 years ago I would have read and just moved on, now I’m finally starting to better understand the way of thinking this passage describes pic.twitter.com/BMI1N3ROmG Permalink 8:56 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 1/2. I’m rereading When Genius Failed – probably for the 30th time – because I like to understand decision making under stress. As I read it this time I have a better understanding of how much I’ve learned from @nntaleb in the last decade pic.twitter.com/uAsNhRpxt3 Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is exactly what I presented at #LibertyCon19: Liberty applies to all scales. No entity (s.a. what this idiot is advocating) should ever impose a national identity on your group, regardless of whether you’re wrong abt your own history (& we’re not). https://twitter.com/7ossain1/status/1114814847672377351   Permalink 7:57 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed modernity is stripping some people of their dignity. https://twitter.com/pravind_paul/status/1114771835508277250   Permalink 12:37 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed, Steve Stuart-Williams is a charlatan. He knows it because he keeps posting unrigorous cherrypicked IQ propaganda. These techniques are NOT predictive. pic.twitter.com/7j70nPUiOQ Permalink 3:39 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@NachoOliveras Indeed. The presenter mentioned round-up (gliphosate) and GMOs as an example of anti-science scaremongers in his punchline. Just remember @nntaleb heuristic for any shill conflating the two on a public platform, works as magic! https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1114170782979174401?s=19   Permalink 1:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@vacimovic Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb & Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan – lecture and conversation in Belgrade. #LibertyCon19 pic.twitter.com/CmHUR0KbAe Permalink 12:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@pietercleppe .@nntaleb at #LibertyCon19 Belgrade: In its well-known cartoon, The @NewYorker conflates economists and bureaucrats with real experts, pilots, who have “skin in the game” pic.twitter.com/dMAbl23rWK Permalink 8:26 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@d_pavlovic Belgrade: @nntaleb and @BrankoMilan discuss risk, skin in the game, and income inequality. pic.twitter.com/cBhQlfI04q Permalink 8:24 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My cousin @GeorgeJNasr started a #Flaneuring hashtag. It should have strict rules: NOTHING TOURISTIC. A flaneur is the reverse tourist. See touristification in #Antifragile. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114298575394103296   Permalink 6:29 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Debating @BrankoMilan in about 1 ½ hours https://twitter.com/petitemilica/status/1113809022447247360   Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Tail Option Pricing Under Fat Tails — A deceivingly simple but yuuuuugely robust model. Where we show that the methods used to claim that “tail options are expensive” are highly unrigorous. pic.twitter.com/QMn3qdc7Tv Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. I have been debating Branko who holds DIAMETRICALLY opposed opinions because he is a scholar. Probability is technical and Silver is not a scholar. One does not debate BS vendors. Permalink 5:21 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Belgrade is full of charm & a great flaneuring city. Perfect size (`1m), some parts are renovated, others look like they have been forgotten by history, which makes them mysterious, real, and at times, gripping. Food is ⅓ Ottoman, People look 3/8 Ottoman Marvelous pic.twitter.com/xzI3BXVpSx Permalink 3:47 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Thread by Dhruv who is the other researcher who got the same result I did. Unlike Bullshit Nate, he doesn’t have 3 mil twitter followers. Jut ~ 50. His paper is on the thread. He is more polite than me with Bullshit Nate, but same result. @EconTalker https://twitter.com/DhruvMadeka/status/1114252281636098049   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb @BrankoMilan’s school windows have mesh and lattices. Permalink 2:53 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Branko’s elementary school in the background. I observed that it looked like a jail. He wasn’t thrilled with my comment. pic.twitter.com/CYxRgWUWo5 Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ما جادلت عالمًا إلا غلبته, وما جادلت جاهلًا إلا غلبني Permalink 8:19 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@lkcashin Watching Bayer stock tumble is a thing of beauty. Monsanto is a cancer upon the earth. Biodiversity suffers in every region Monsanto stretches its dirty tentacles and GMF’s are an environmental time-bomb in the making. @nntaleb #fuckmonsanto #goorganic #Cancer #gm Permalink 7:50 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bullshit Nate, you can fool your audience, not professionals. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4-Competition using 100,000 series, comparing 61 F/cing methods was followed by the M4 F/cing Conference in NYC where its findings were presented Now a special issue of IJF with 33 papers on all aspects of M4 from top academics and practitioners from big tech firms @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/QcihLtbaq3 Permalink 6:36 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb J2b haplogroup epicenter is Serbia. pic.twitter.com/BeADCT4mN2 Permalink 6:34 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How Silver thinks he can bullshit us. pic.twitter.com/DJcAj9vKRL Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Ase, I have attended 4 RWRI and discovered that most of the people that go understand AF “up to a point”… And get lost in theory. Practical AF needs to be a topic… obviously associated with complexity and risk. other topics: AI, entrepreneurship; localism, etc. Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Bureaucracy is a construction designed to maximize the distance between a decision-maker and the risks of the decision.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Mandelbrot #fractals #chaos pic.twitter.com/nSLnoWesJn Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 3 The “law of large numbers” almost never works for socioeconomic variables. See Chapters 6-8. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 8:58 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@GMWatch New Brunswick’s chief medical officer was working on a study on #glyphosate when she was suddenly put on leave and then fired. Dr. Cleary had already said that she and her staff concurred with the IARC finding that glyphosate was a probable carcinogen https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/archive/2015/16587-dr-eilish-cleary-is-fired-while-studying-glyphosate   https://twitter.com/GMWatch/status/1113691587232579586   Permalink 7:46 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Adriatic squid ink (risotto) pic.twitter.com/ynX3ltI0Lp Permalink 6:37 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My lectshur will be on localism and convexity. My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 3:35 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19 Permalink 3:31 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@NeilNRockville I just got through that section of Antifragile, and it blew my mind that he predicted it so closely, then I looked back at it in retrospect and it was clear why it was so predictable… Permalink 5:45 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM: Why tribal links are important for survival & fail w/abstract universalism: you’d rather love your child w/intensity 1 & save her from drowning > love 1000 strangers each w/intensity .001 ALL Nonlinearities lead to convex effects #antifragility https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 4:58 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 2 Semitic & Indo European languages appear to BOTH emerge from the same area in the Caucasus-Zagros-Anatolia, owing to proximity of agricultural vocabulary & similar original pop. genetics. Current linguistic categories are unrigorous. @Safaitic Permalink 3:21 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 1 That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables. It is very rarely so. Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict linearity… and its interpretation is nonlinear: 90% correlation >>> 80%. pic.twitter.com/9fCv0f6YXJ Permalink 3:17 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@kiwiandroiddev This article calls to mind @nntaleb’s Antifragile: “Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens – usually.” https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/a-lack-of-redundancies-on-737-max-system-has-baffled-even-those-who-worked-on-the-jet/   Permalink 12:44 AM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Damn good. pic.twitter.com/QD0rF32l7z Permalink 11:03 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@holland_tom Huge thanks to @nntaleb for his kind words… #Dominion https://twitter.com/LaraHeimert/status/1113104190014984194   Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And, BTW, the only enterprise that did fail more than “secular Arabism ” under a centralized state over the past century is perhaps the attempt to make a collection of pigs sing the Latin version of Te Deum in a syncronized way in a Gothic Cathedral. But not sure. Permalink 4:19 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb OVERT CLUELESSNESS These croissants are bought for ~$.40 to $.80. The markup comes from the monopoly given to the concession. @AOC is the logical empiricist’s nightmare. https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1112739837822582784   Permalink 3:27 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb High time to make my decision public. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1112715864850128898   Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb There is no depth in Peterson. A modicum of insight wrapped in marketing BS, unrigorous psycholophastering (IQ, Big 5, 5 humors) masquerading as scholarship. In short, a quack. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1112741408979353601   Permalink 8:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Booked a table! https://twitter.com/Toni_Bader93/status/1109188645955792897   Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb These dumb fucks at @metmuseum were trying to illustrate their theories of “Middle East identity” showing a Hellenistic sarcophagus from Sidon with… Greek inscriptions on it. Permalink 5:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Since ~1100 BC Phoenicians (then “Lebanese”) have been the MOST MEDITERRANEAN of pples: look at food/behavior/looks. But since 1860 some low-Intellect Westerners (Arabists & founders of AUB, etc.) have decided de-Mediterraneanize (initially de-Ottomanize) to satisfy “identity” Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@trishankkarthik Everyone should drop what they’re doing, and read this paper right now Sometimes doctors have independently discovered special applications of this idea (e.g., ventilation machine), but it surprises me that they haven’t tried applying the same idea more generally (e.g., cancer) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1112694075084472320   Permalink 5:36 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tQimRV7n5M Permalink 5:32 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1 /2 That is the idea of statistical distribution of harm #Antifragility /second order effects in Medicine. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1112528982807904256   Permalink 5:31 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IDENTITY MONGERS “Art and Identity in the Ancient Middle East” at @metmuseum: Edward Said-style identity mongers proceed to destroy the notion of cosmopolitan localism/Mediterraneanism of the Phoenicians. It shows the horrors of non-localist Nationalism. 1/n pic.twitter.com/AT4U1TW0zK Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@VergilDen On this April 1st morning I’m reminded of that time years ago when @nntaleb & I were in Italy and we deadlifted, rented a Black Swan Lambo & tore up Rome. Then we drove up the coast to meet Umberto Eco at his Villa. We perused his antilibrary & ate squid ink pasta. Good times. pic.twitter.com/SRwykqA3Fb Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@Gore_Burnelli One of the habits I’ve acquired from reading @nntaleb’s books is to always be skeptical whenever an academic declares a working system to be “backwards”, “medieval”. See for example Robert Sapolsky’s take on the American criminal justice system @ 23:18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61tChpN3lhY#t=23m18   Permalink 5:07 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:23 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher. Permalink 12:39 PM – 30 Mar 2019

Entropy, Monsanto, Mutual Information, “European”, Localism, Correlation, Leaving NY, IQ, Pinker, DUNNING-K | Twitter

@paulportesi Seriously I f****** love waking up to this. Entropy methods better than correlation in nonlinearities. F****** brilliant. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1111966227503689728   Permalink 5:54 AM – 30 Mar 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Just to show the vast superiority of Entropy methods such as Mutual Information over correlation, and to show how correlation breaks down under nonlinearity, consider high Mutual information but “zero correlation” in the case of a straddle: pic.twitter.com/U6VLXFohkF Permalink 5:19 AM – 30 Mar 2019

@vonkronstadt https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728562580583796737   Permalink 3:02 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@Gordon48814362 “Wittgenstein argues, among other things, that superficial grammatical similarities in the forms of both religious and factual statements mislead us into believing that they are fundamentally identical states of “belief.”” This is @nntaleb ‘s point, protestants got it mixed up Permalink 2:22 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@CaseyBHead Americans lost confidence in political parties, public schools, courts, organized labor, banks, big business, media and other institutions because they didn’t change with society. We need to create robust, decentralized, voluntary institutions. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1111606150900912128   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @mises @WarrenBuffett #Greenspan @jaegerlecoultre #MarxBrothers #Moonraker pic.twitter.com/KTUE9ktc0l Permalink 11:20 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@thackerpd Roundup Trial: Monsanto Used Fake Data to Win Over Regulators https://www.courthousenews.com/roundup-trial-monsanto-used-fake-data-to-win-over-regulators/   #Monsanto planted an employee at a lab to fake data Planned an attack on @IARCWHO Exploited ties at the @EPA ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/FTFSGQXQUq”>  pic.twitter.com/FTFSGQXQUq Permalink 5:43 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Institutions tend to work at their beginning. So does centralization. Then rotting starts. Permalink 5:28 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:33 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This is the free copy of the paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   Permalink 2:21 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FINALLY PUBLISHED How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for f… https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018301535   Permalink 1:22 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FINALLY PUBLISHED How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for f… https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018301535   Permalink 1:22 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Question about convention in @WolframResearch’s Mathematica with the dot product vs multiplication. What is standard for X .Transpose [Y] vs X Y ? @SwedeWhite pic.twitter.com/5kUX71o2CS Permalink 10:41 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 100% of Survival is reliability. — CNN is committing suicide. Even its partisans, those who cheer its slant on the news, will rapidly scorn it. #Lindy Permalink 9:58 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism @nntaleb @normonics ? https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1111152928725753857   Permalink 6:54 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb No Monsanto shill & people who engage in vile smear campaigns against scientists skeptical of GMOs/Glyphosate should remain unaccountable. Gabish? @EconTalker https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1110960948527927297   Permalink 4:30 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto… https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_6OcNCbWCC13TJ   via @amazon Permalink 3:56 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Antonio Spadaro, friend for 8 years, squid ink Grand Maestro. pic.twitter.com/ZPsglOkP34 Permalink 5:19 PM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Antonio Spadaro of New Rochelle (and Sicily) , (very) proud of his squid ink risotto! pic.twitter.com/QBhJBSecPB Permalink 4:58 PM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The next contagion of costly virtue signaling. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-26/hedge-fund-returns-300-million-saudi-investments-over-khashoggi-killing   Permalink 10:12 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To be precise, Hagia Sophia’s “original” state is, technically, a church (actually, a Cathedral). https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1110840663183183872   Permalink 7:53 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@ggreenwald The entire purpose of this 8,000-wrod @NewYorker profile was to depict me as being mentally unwell – psychologically damaged and full of rage and resentment – as the explanation for why I refused to stop questioning the undeniable truth of collusion https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/09/03/glenn-greenwald-the-bane-of-their-resistance   Permalink 7:52 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@PZalloua It is here!!! https://twitter.com/phoenicianinst/status/1110914446065651713   Permalink 7:43 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@mythoughtfood Proof that science is an über slow process. ” For centuries, scholars have argued over his account because there was no archaeological evidence that such ships ever existed. ” Now the ship exists. Classic case of absence of evidence confused with evidence of absence @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Jamie_Woodward_/status/1107254598169968640   Permalink 5:01 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@CTBnutrition @nntaleb thank you for standing up to these crooks and inspiring others to do so as well. pic.twitter.com/vCchT69n8W Permalink 6:12 PM – 26 Mar 2019

@davidsarac Curiosity which leads to tinkering brings forward emergence & transformation. Creativity which obsesses about novelty results in social degeneration Curiosity is underrated in current day and age, while creativity is severely overrated. pic.twitter.com/k5qjWwoOln Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A Byzantine health station in North Lebanon. Two of my ancestors come from there. https://twitter.com/XNaheereX/status/1110567881866207232   Permalink 8:47 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb @felhagehistoire Permalink 8:46 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A Historian showing the link between the French revolution & lack of skin in the game on the part of aristocrats, who owe their initial status to the fact that they need to take risk w/their lives for others. There is something annoying in status without risk and #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/2X9ATrD6sl Permalink 8:42 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mutual information sheds light on why low correlations are meaningless. Things are now clearer and clearer. pic.twitter.com/3ioccAWOIJ Permalink 7:41 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@GreenFuzz24 Answer to global problems and uncertainty is the total opposite: fractal localism. See: @nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 7:40 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BEAUTIFUL DISCOVERY Unlike correlation, Mutual Information (cross entropy) is additive. On that, later. Permalink 4:50 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@Cernovich He was the head of the CIA. That’s what I take away most from the Russian collusion hoax. The power they have over human lives. How many people did Brennan have tortured based on his intel? These are evil people. https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/ex-cia-director-john-brennan-admits-he-may-have-had-bad-information-regarding-president-trump-and-russia   Permalink 4:03 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@ektrit https://twitter.com/halaljew/status/1110226314202677248?s=19   Permalink 1:21 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Confused by Correlation? https://youtu.be/p76bQlnVuBM   Permalink 1:35 PM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Paul Krugman @paulkrugman remains the best argument for the suspension of the “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”. https://twitter.com/greta/status/1110126131557085185   Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@ektrit Current concept of “European” was conceived in the 19th century meaning “Not Muslim”, or “Not Turk”, that is why Europe is being handled as a separate “continent”, while not being an actual continent. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1110132957359099907   Permalink 5:40 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Stephennie Mulder @stephenniem is another one who falls for the trap of Northern European Supremacism & Med denigration under cover of “diversity” https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:40 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb My entire book Fooled by Randomness was that the modern interpretation of “Intelligence” (as reflected in IQ tests/school grades) seems to favor those prone to be *fooled by false patterns* over those who can intellectually grasp the notion of randomness/absence of information. https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1110128220265836545   Permalink 4:13 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “European” is a modern term, not a genetic term. “Western Eurasian” is the genetic zone, which largely contradicts her point. Why are ideological historians so ignorant? https://twitter.com/stephenniem/status/1109795282806542336   Permalink 3:54 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Not #Lindy. https://twitter.com/lukeharding1968/status/936577757676494854   Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@ggreenwald Turning on Mueller and impugning his integrity and competence is the inevitable outcome – it’s the only play the Trump/Russia devotees have – and here’s the start: https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1109934811236306944   Permalink 4:47 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@lebanonpics Lebanon Houses pic.twitter.com/TZGqhovFkJ Permalink 12:11 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb When people get rich, they start follow the constructed preferences by the marketing industry, get hoodwinked into complicated lives… then, if they are lucky, give up. https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   Permalink 7:28 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb If you explicitly understand what you *really* like, you have a yuuuge advantage in life. γνῶθι σεαυτόν Permalink 7:22 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb People don’t know their preferences: they think they like large houses, but prefer to huddle in small spaces over large empty silent rooms. Never ask pple what they “like”, watch what they do. #Skininthegame https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-growing-problem-in-real-estate-too-many-too-big-houses-11553181782?shareToken=st3ef00990e5c44084b72a3fc0bc599e11   via @WSJ Permalink 7:16 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – “any person psychopathologizing another, particularly when there is political divergence.” – Serial nitpickers – Lobbyists – Pple who answer “stick to your discipline” instead of counterargument – Someone abusing language w/”racist”, “nazi”, etc. Permalink 6:11 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – people who don’t get that tweets and aphorisms don’t need hedging – people with cute remarks on math problems – people who give unsolicited advice – people who make logical mistakes – people who represent Monsanto/Saudi Barbaria Permalink 6:10 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” – people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom [@nntaleb] DO[es] NOT want to have an exchange because you DO[es] NOT learn/advance from bullshit. – sophistry Permalink 6:08 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt Without further ado, a list of blockable offenses according to @nntaleb (who once blocked me, forcing me to create a new account (don’t block me bro)) Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=%40nntaleb%20block&src=typd&lang=en   – idiots – people who discuss @nntaleb’s tone – anyone who mentions dunning-kruger in his feed Permalink 6:07 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@JordiLlatzer You NEVER are able to change just one square on a Rubik cube. That’s how complex systems work. That is how life works. Permalink 11:29 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/LouisLebbos/status/1018912920221241354   Permalink 10:11 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@nntaleb For Power law, it is … worse. 2 Quadrants will have a negative correlation! pic.twitter.com/H8JTcEjNIz Permalink 10:01 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@Jaffer22915438 I will never stay silent about our government’s and MSM’s lust for war and will call out every pinhead jackass who lie to bring death & destruction abroad. if you have a few minutes, read Taibbi’s latest: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/iraq-war-media-fail-matt-taibbi-812230/amp/?__twitter_impression=true   Permalink 4:31 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@NathanH48069967 As @nntaleb maintains: we need localism. “. . . you can’t fool the neighborhood. . .” “. . built a massive . . structure that . . James Howard Kunstler would later liken to a “Darth Vader building”. .” Southern Poverty Law Center https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-reckoning-of-morris-dees-and-the-southern-poverty-law-center   Permalink 8:44 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb An illustration of my point that “Psychology is a self-referential publishing ring”. https://twitter.com/EPoe187/status/1109074623407288320   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Please explain “correlation”. Now. Permalink 6:37 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The first casualy of the metric is the “Sortino ratio” used in finance. pic.twitter.com/S8fOTTwW0R Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists like @EPoe187 are *genuinely* convinced that theirs is a science, and that their measurements are like those in physics. https://twitter.com/EPoe187/status/1108706958507458560   Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mike @mikeharrisNY explains it better than anyone else. https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1108837935699382277   Permalink 2:47 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb From those wondering who is the Dan from Prague, he is the one who gave me the most effective blurb ever written on the back of a book. pic.twitter.com/qtXtYWuEYG Permalink 2:44 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I got the intuition in 1 D, from variance. pic.twitter.com/rAavGRIhdT Permalink 2:38 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@mikeharrisNY The way I see it: due to intricate properties of corr function, sub-sample corr cannot be inferred from sample corr when those sub-samples are not random but refer to specific ranges. Applies to IQ-income corr. Applies to finance and has fooled portfolio managers. Major discovery Permalink 2:08 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally found Dan from Prague. https://twitter.com/maircomm/status/1108811863431749632   Permalink 12:28 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@garyruskin Fired Quebec scientist blew the whistle on #pesticide lobby influence. Via @NatObserver @ottawacarl http://bit.ly/2FhU6F8   “the union said he was trying to alert his superiors about attempts by industry to suppress publicly-funded science on the health effects of pesticides.” Permalink 10:20 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This is a Monte Carlo code for replication to prove I am not hallucinating pic.twitter.com/G8L0JRYi4R Permalink 8:07 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Look here: I break up a quadrant into 4 subquadrants. Correlation keeps getting lower. Reason: correlation is convex. pic.twitter.com/GgskQcsyna Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/7VpTPlGpXe Permalink 7:11 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@355BC326BC The Greek Orthodox Cathedral of Saint George, the Mother-Cathedral of the Orthodox community in the city of Beirut, Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/athsZg0YDR Permalink 9:25 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Correlation is Weird: all non random subsamples will yield a correlation below the total one. pic.twitter.com/ZBplIjnmuX Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@rorysutherland Cheap talk versus skin in the game! https://twitter.com/CravenPartners/status/1108459626373279744   Permalink 1:14 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb @SClarkeWriter Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Cyprus = Lebanon without the egos. https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1108077355594104832   Permalink 4:17 PM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto spent $$$ insulting science by transforming it into propaganda, smearing scientists & pple like yours truly who were skeptical of their risk management. Bayer had the brilliant idea of buying Monsanto. From here on, the process is unstoppable! https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1108134186236272640   Permalink 3:59 PM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb #Mars2019 pic.twitter.com/ShEvg2YtTP Permalink 10:36 AM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb ” Yém7é ésmo w Zkro” is an ancient Mediterranean practice יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ The equivalent is “damnatio memoriae” for the Romans. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1107970750454091776   Permalink 5:22 AM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb My review of Stephen Clarke’s book on the French Revolution. https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Stephen+Clarke+%28author%29&ref=cm_cr_srp_d_pdt_bl_sr   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5zKA0m3ZFd”>  pic.twitter.com/5zKA0m3ZFd Permalink 5:37 PM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb So correlation, even under nonlinearities, has a strict narrow meaning. When correlation is 80% it will be insignificant in 2 quadrants (.02), and .57 in others. Even something taken for granted s.a. correlation is hard. pic.twitter.com/wJ3XhrWljN Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb You can see through the BS by having a single plot “IQ” vs “Age at death” with a VERY large sample (general population) without control schmontrol and all the discussions. THEN do you do analytics. Permalink 7:59 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Analytic Solution is Done. We can see Correlation is sub and superadditive pending on Quadrant. And what happens with different Quadrant Correlations. pic.twitter.com/dWhGt24LKU Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Where I discover that the common Levantine name”Fares” or “Phares” does not mean “horserider” but comes from Φαρές, the Syrian-Greek transliteration of the Hebrew “Perez” or “Peretz” פרץ son of Judah. @WalidPhares pic.twitter.com/QmjgleMQkD Permalink 7:01 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Scott Adams blocked a bunch of people (including me) over the remark. It is hard for laymen to be told: “Sutor, ne ultra crepidam” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1100446659379638272   Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Can Mr @JoshuaGrubbsPhD, PhD show us the error terms of his graph? Just an honest plot with all the data points will suffice. Thank you. https://twitter.com/JoshuaGrubbsPhD/status/1107079163146657792   Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@financequant I don’t always know how to succeed, but I know how to survive–and I sure as hell am not ready to give up. Permalink 1:25 PM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In my manifesto I discuss a SCALE TRANSFORMATION: A group of assholes pursuing asshole interests under the rule of law produces a virtuous society; A group of moralizing utopianists trying to make society virtuous produce …hell. Adding complexity to Mandeville/Smith. Permalink 10:40 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb For those into envy politics who plan on taxing the rich as sitting duck, remember the properties of power laws: between ½ & 2% of taxpayers paid up to 50% of state taxes. At the margin, the departure of 5-10 people can bankrupt a state! IYIs think in statics not dynamics. pic.twitter.com/NPvJbxPXvI Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am not fully leaving NY yet, just using it as a “secondary” residence for now (I spent less than 4-5 months there anyway). Just to make sure these socialist lunatics don’t surprise me with some expropriation. Permalink 9:30 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Received the incredibly well made book by ⁦@drjasonfung⁩ and ⁦@drjamesdinic⁩. They use the potent designation “nonfood items”. I wonder how many nutritional studies would still hold their conclusions if we removed “nonfoods” from the tests. Science is hard. pic.twitter.com/toI9UiRPyT Permalink 9:21 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@Monsantobuster GMO arguments by shills. cc:@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/t50VmSP1mz Permalink 6:45 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb NY will soon learn that only way you can enforce socialism is by closing borders and keeping people trapped inside (Cuba, Soviet bloc). People vote with their feet: a mechanism by which organic systems enforce selection. Permalink 5:42 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I just got a thingy in Atlanta to move away from these suicidal lunatics in NY. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-16/class-warfare-tax-absentee-nyc-property-owners-met-strong-opposition   Permalink 3:39 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The word “Wine” <- vinum <- οίνος (->vin, vino, etc.) comes from the Phoenician יין (Yayn). Affaire closed. #Lindy. Permalink 3:27 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BEWARE THE “JUST SO” It was always assumed that civilization began with agriculture. Gobekli Tepe, though, was built 500 years before its people built their first farms. https://allthatsinteresting.com/gobekli-tepe?utm_source=pubexchange_twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=pubx_ancient_origins   Permalink 1:15 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Clearer: Shows the quadrant-dependent nature of correlation (and its su-additivity) EVEN in the absence of nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com/kW2EMj4spn Permalink 10:00 AM – 16 Mar 2019

@mrraoofi After so many years using the word “IQ” instead of “intelligence” or “cleverness”, many people have difficulty understanding the point @nntaleb makes about the swindle which is IQ. You say: IQ, they hear: intelligence or mental capacity,…. Permalink 1:09 AM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A simple Monte Carlo showing how correlation is NOT ADDITIVE; sums of quadrant correlations do nto match the aggregate. Analytical solution done but needs trimming. @apgox pic.twitter.com/Yea2IHssvZ Permalink 6:53 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FOOLED BY CORRELATION: even when rho=0, we see positive correlation in the double negative quadrants. Without even adding nonlinearities. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/qcRQNvZb8Z Permalink 2:36 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FOr the nth time, it is not that IQ does not measure social skills/wisdom, etc. It DOES NOT MEASURE MENTAL CAPACITY. Gabish? https://twitter.com/JM_Irishitaly/status/1106634471808397316   Permalink 12:15 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb More background info https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 12:13 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Same story for income. Above average income there is NO correlation. A “low IQ” person as likely to get a higher income. pic.twitter.com/SlMgwgWuoc Permalink 12:00 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The IQ situation even worse. Found that here is no correlation IQ- income/wealth at highers levels EVEN FOR LOW IQ. Hence the math used for “g” fails. Psycholophasters do not seem to know what correlations mean under nonlinearity. And, BTW @jordanbPeterson is a quack. pic.twitter.com/BCN3Z1JMYt Permalink 11:56 AM – 15 Mar 2019

@hugowiz «They are also prone to mistake the ensemble for the linear aggregation of its components—that is, they think that our understanding of single individuals allows us to understand crowds and markets …» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #IYI #Intellectuals pic.twitter.com/Dkk8RWALM1 Permalink 8:19 AM – 15 Mar 2019

@IlhanMN The Saudi royal family has literally helped fund Al Qaeda. This is the debate no one wants to have but needs to be had. Saudi accountability is long overdue. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/world/middleeast/24saudi.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share   https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1105903411579572227   Permalink 12:09 PM – 14 Mar 2019

@RandPaul Jailed Saudi female activists have been subjected to torture, beatings, electric shocks, and sexual abuse. Don’t sell arms to barbarians! https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/saudi-female-activists-finally-get-a-day-in-court-they-deserve-freedom/2019/03/13/0bcf1990-45a5-11e9-90f0-0ccfeec87a61_story.html   Permalink 11:24 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics means NO to corporatocracy. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1106224344995381249   Permalink 9:41 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb If there is someone spreading statistical illiteracy & naive empiricism, it is @sapinker. Statistics is hard. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1106171241499508744   Permalink 6:47 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Universa meeting in Miami. pic.twitter.com/642WWbYEfK Permalink 4:17 PM – 13 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Why “good” forecasters go bust and how the literature in psych on decision theory is at least 2000 years behind pic.twitter.com/7aj0hrqBT9 Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Yes, when said wage is low. Ironically you are freest at low income; much much more than when in the middle class. https://twitter.com/dkhozem/status/1105612154097594368   Permalink 5:11 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Final typos removed pic.twitter.com/06QAO55PLK Permalink 3:36 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Formal proof pic.twitter.com/FPTPhHaHN3 Permalink 3:04 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Applying it to the Lognormal pic.twitter.com/UsrYpcF8NX Permalink 2:39 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fus7a is largely a fabricated language used by poets to impress poets. @Safaitic is by far the most insightful linguist I’ve ever encountered. https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1105570076932087808   Permalink 1:47 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb DUNNING-K From now on, I block anyone mentioning Dunning-Kruger in my feed. 1) It doesn’t really exist (bad science by psycholophasters), 2) it doesn’t really apply in most cases where mentioned. Gabish? Permalink 12:09 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Hint: as volatility rises, because the distribution is bounded to the left, the probability of exceeding any level goes to 0, with the mass a Dirac at 0. The point is that all the expectation is owed to a single low probability tail event. pic.twitter.com/0y0M1bhFDK Permalink 12:00 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A bureaucrat is judged by other bureaucrats. That’s the root of the problem. Permalink 11:47 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@tedcruz First time I’ve ever retweeted @ewarren But she’s right—Big Tech has way too much power to silence Free Speech. They shouldn’t be censoring Warren, or anybody else. A serious threat to our democracy. https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1105256905058979841   Permalink 10:40 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In the past, scholars who were not financially independent were directly funded by Maecenas —rich patrons. Today they are funded by bureaucrats. #Skininthegame Permalink 10:12 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ du jour pic.twitter.com/kM1CkZnNzz Permalink 8:37 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In #Antifragile: Making pilots rely on automation… pic.twitter.com/iYfy7o316r Permalink 7:50 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@Firsou He gets it. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1105468569800839169   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Looks like in spite of all of the arguments, psychologists s.a. @NickWolfinger and his BS vending econ friends @ATabarrok et al. do not know what correlation means, how it works under nonlinarities, etc. They are not even at par to understand the insults. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1105300436540522496   Permalink 6:03 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Indeed someone in the Administration is heeding the practical suggestions associated with #Skininthegame. Trump’s Budget: pic.twitter.com/bctISMWwK2 Permalink 5:21 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The passage in #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/WFD1lNVmje Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Mar 2019

@holland_tom “A God who didn’t really suffer on the cross would be like magician who performed an illusion” – @nntaleb on the implications of the docetist Christ having no skin in the game. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1105154307568095233   Permalink 11:25 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I meant The LAW OF MEDIUM NUMBERS Permalink 10:40 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I should have named the article: THE LAWS OF MIDDLE NUMBERS Since it shows how the law of large numbers works before the limit. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   Permalink 10:35 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@DrMichaelBonner If anyone want to read my review of #SkinintheGame, it’s here: https://www.academia.edu/36659057/Aphorisms_from_Antique_Lands   Permalink 10:11 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In #Antifragile, you need strong evidence to override nature’s reaction. Nobody could back up why we ice injuries. Nobody, https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1105109687538802688   Permalink 9:23 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@RustedOak The President’s budget was released today. Page 2 mentions colleges having #SkinInTheGame and student loan Risk Sharing just like @purduemitch has preached for years, @nntaleb for decades. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/budget-fy2020.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dy4oceNceX”>  pic.twitter.com/dy4oceNceX Permalink 8:50 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@CantHardyWait Here @nntaleb captures why he doesn’t have an assistant. “You want maximum free time, not maximum activity” pic.twitter.com/GW3wNwmg5w Permalink 5:35 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Lawla l3arabé baddo ymshé kén alla3 min zamén. W-halla2 ma3 social media ma 3ad fi majél la2anno lss7f 3am tmut. Permalink 4:10 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This money belongs to the taxpayers. Public office is not an investment strategy. https://twitter.com/epsilontheory/status/1104847045087641600   Permalink 4:06 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This money belongs to the taxpayers. Public office is not an investment strategy. https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1104847045087641600   Permalink 4:06 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A bit a background about my twitter fights, as lying on a hammock becomes excruciatingly boring after 4-6 min. pic.twitter.com/urd3mhHRaM Permalink 6:55 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @WarrenBuffett #buffettman #marginofsafety #tailrisk #lifejacket pic.twitter.com/C95mRn4Cvu Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Using an unreliable measure s.a. IQ on grounds that that’s “what best we got” and “science” proceeds that way” (it doesn’t) is accepting self labelled “bullshit” as scientific statements. And this Bullshit is a technical term in philosophy: the disrespect for Truth. Permalink 5:54 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Not my point. My point is that IQ doesn’t even measure that part of intelligence it is supposed to measure. Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2tana3t. Khalas! Case closed. https://twitter.com/encrier/status/1104389426233384962   Baddna nmshé ma3 l wé2e3 Permalink 5:28 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BTW this is the latest version on IQ https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:18 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@PaulSkallas https://twitter.com/DIsaac8/status/979874998289547264?s=19   Permalink 5:00 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am waiting for the dust to settle on the IQ and “g” thingy to address something called the Big Five and the “factor analysis”. It does make astrology look like an academic discipline. Permalink 4:57 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Philosophia ancilla theologiae Permalink 4:07 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@seyyedreza Ezekiel’s Tomb is located between Najaf and Karbala, Shia Islam’s holiest sites. Not only did Jews and Muslims worship side by side; their practices influenced each other. Scholars argue that Jewish practices at the tomb are based on Shia ziyara rituals. https://ajammc.com/2019/03/03/ezekiels-tomb-jewish-iraq-muslim/   Permalink 1:05 PM – 9 Mar 2019

IQ, Pinker, Jordan Peterson, Statistics, FRACTAL LOCALISM, Psychology, Tetlock, Caplan, Edward Said, Peter Francopan, Julia Galef, Tulsi Gabbard | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books

@nntaleb N7na ldiaspora min faddél latiné. Bass l3alam juwwa bigakkro gheir shi la2annon t3awwado. Wkamén l Yiddish huwwé Ilmané maktub bil 7arf l 3brané nafsl abjadiyyé. Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/gRJ8QYIrxP Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 3am fakkér ista3mél l7arf l3arabé lal né0-kn3ané. Lésh? La2anno fina shwayy shwayy nbay3éd 3annon, mush fard ddarbé –ma3 inno l7arf l latiné a2rab 3a 7akiyna. Wma ninsa 2nno l7arf l3arabé asslo fini2é kamen! Shu ra2ykon? Permalink 2:24 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Orthodoxy reposes on the notion that a) G-d had to become man to suffer and have skin in the game and, more centrally for Orthodoxy, b) Man can become G-d via a merger called theosis BECAUSE G-d had skin in the game: Αὐτὸς γὰρ ἐνηνθρώπησεν, ἵνα ἡμεῖς θεοποιηθῶμεν Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@ektrit In Orthodox Theology, humans are higher than angels and higher than all other creatures of God, precisely because God had “skin in the game” by having One Person of the Holy Trinity, Christ, assuming a PERFECT human body. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1104141492627611655   Permalink 2:14 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Different mafia: without a sense of loyalty, honor and the ironclad committment to deliver on their promises. https://twitter.com/johnnysportcoat/status/1104140929978589189?s=21   Permalink 2:13 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally, someone who (along with @DrMichaelBonner ) understood Skin in the Game. It makes humans superior to gods. https://twitter.com/giles_fraser/status/1104005211155283968   Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Cosa Nostra American branch, that is. Permalink 11:21 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The mafia has effectively ended. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-metro-mob-boss-carmine-persico-dies-in-prison-20190307-story.html   Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@giles_fraser No one should be too big to fail. Not even God. ⁦@nntaleb⁩ Why God needs skin in the game – UnHerd https://unherd.com/2019/03/why-god-needs-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb …and I regretted it. It wasn’t paella at all, squid ink was dry… Permalink 3:53 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink paella in, of all places, Ralleigh-Durham. pic.twitter.com/DQK1DcwZeB Permalink 4:55 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb And it has nothing to do with the video. Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@RustedOak Every Thursday, @senatorbraun presides over the Senate for 3 hours. Today he explicitly requested his copy of #SkinInTheGame (by @nntaleb) to read while in the big chair. pic.twitter.com/xKctNRqLyh Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Put me on the record: Jordan Peterson @jordanbpeterson is a charlatan. https://twitter.com/nufflez/status/1103735657271345158   Permalink 12:33 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends In my book on Politics, Localism I answer questions. Anything to suggest here? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ”>  pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ Permalink 12:18 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I never never never use TED-style words such as “enrich lives”. Never. Fake quote https://twitter.com/gbutrous/status/1103582034654625793   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “The only time he forgot about his short height was when he asked his accountant to read out his bank statement, something which he did multiple times a day.” (on Ehud Laniado who just passed during vanity surgery) Permalink 2:48 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM pic.twitter.com/ogO0MC4Nmi Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@VaniPalomo Skin in the game (?) @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jfcarpio/status/1103142481665892352   Permalink 9:53 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Ended up publishing with an internet startup [2000 bubble!] that gave me ½ the royalties to accept my intransigence. Bookstores hardly carried their books. Without @Amazon you would have never heard of me. The internet startup went predictably bust. Got the rights back. Permalink 8:46 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Dear unpublished author: Took me 3 years to publish the book. Editors wanted to “improve” the style, remove parables/fictional char, add charts to make it “more professional”. ~99% of publishers said ~”this book will flop”…& gave reasons. I was stubborn and uncompromising. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103044166169300994   Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Intergenerational risk management https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103073842984034304   Permalink 3:30 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@LPNational Libertarians don’t pander, we support all freedoms, all of the time. pic.twitter.com/GR9IU4HPrZ Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness is apparently a bit Lindy. The book is 18 years old cc:@paulskalas http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RSMXMuiPf5 Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Region Plot to see where lhs-rhs is negative (next) pic.twitter.com/9BjW4uSRwn Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Every single fact in the NYT is true. Every bit of news is flase. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099232862090465281   Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@LIHF_Living All the reasons why you should never take #statins, summed up neatly in one paragraph. From AF by @nntaleb .. pic.twitter.com/sm5m4h8KED Permalink 9:32 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Small workout du jour Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine pic.twitter.com/5FIq6HiMku Permalink 8:54 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists playing with regression… https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1102973930191679500   Permalink 8:49 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Statistics is hard. Very hard. https://twitter.com/KetoAurelius/status/1101848406803312640   Permalink 6:48 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Bien sur http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 5:38 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@DellAnnaLuca The fact that (almost) all degrees have the same duration regardless of the complexity of the underlying field is the best evidence that education has been built around the universities’ needs, not the students’. Permalink 12:53 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@AndrewNoymer Born #OTD, 5 March 1938. David A. Freedman (d. 2008). A major figure in statistical science from the 1960s to the first decade of this century. And a wonderful PhD mentor to me. A major inspiration in my professional life. @philipbstark @nntaleb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_A._Freedman   Permalink 12:22 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Businessman: “Almost half my income comes from one client. I need to markedly increase my business”. Answer: “If you markedly increase your business, you will do well, but half your income will still come from one client. Another client”. #SelfSimilarity #PowerLaws Permalink 10:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@Jon__air They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns). – Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 7:43 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Two solutions so far, the second is more elegant. pic.twitter.com/KGL4vVyMre Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zy2TsepKCP Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mathematical pushups dujour (Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine) pic.twitter.com/90eOU5LQzU Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychology has cranks propagandists like @SteveStuWill who: + Keep posting seemingly junk statistics that fail under scrutiny (e.g. IQ doesn’t correlate to income >40K- even at low IQ!) + Keep posing as arbiters of “pseudoscience — while psychology is largely pseudoscience. https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1102432917714685952   Permalink 3:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:36 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Greeeeat news from Lebanon: these 5 women are the pilots for the Lebanese airline. (Though it is misnamed M-E Airlines rather than what it should be, East-Mediterranean Airlines or, best, “Med Air”). pic.twitter.com/2ju0rsUDeG Permalink 1:01 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends, how about this probability-driven definition of complex systems before delving into FRACTAL LOCALISM? @yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/X5qyOHop70 Permalink 11:59 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nickgillespie Yes! @RandPaul is voting against Trump’s emergency declaration. What about @SenMikeLee? @tedcruz? @marcorubio? @CoryGardner? @BenSasse? @PatToomey? This is YOUR moment to stand up for constitutional government. Principle over party! http://reason.com/blog/2019/03/03/rand-paul-will-vote-against-trump-emerge   @EricBoehm87 @reason Permalink 11:45 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The only way you can “convince” rentseekers [bankers/academicobureaucrats] is showing them that it is in their own INTERESTS to change their mind. When against their interests, make it painful for them by 1) convincing OTHERS, 2) continuously exposing, 3) humiliating them Permalink 7:23 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@SimonDeDeo There is no such thing as a un-biased test for pattern recognition ability. (Literally, and for the same reason that Komolgorov complexity is uncomputable.) IQ tests the ability to know what the academic bureaucrat test thinks a pattern is. https://twitter.com/RustedOak/status/1102220743671271427   Permalink 7:14 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am very dumb without #SkinintheGame Some people have an energy filter. pic.twitter.com/IqY74S9nvh Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A- As I keep saying there is too high variance in IQ tests FOR THE SAME person. To include it statistically it propagates the noise in other links IQ-real worls (already too noisy). B- @SimonDeDeo also finds elsewhere that you can RAISE non-nerdish people’s IQ by offering them $. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1101889756139540481   Permalink 4:08 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@amconmag Saudi and Emirati lobbyists really don’t want the war in Yemen to end: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/can-these-senators-prevail-over-uae-saudi-lobby-for-war/   Permalink 4:00 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Any bio of Seneca will be written by a library rat who writes biographies hence can’t get people of action. Just read Seneca. https://twitter.com/ckard001/status/1101940887893016576   Permalink 2:41 PM – 2 Mar 2019

@nntaleb We did not break the mafia by being “kind” and convincing. In the presence of rent seeking, you break by breaking. https://twitter.com/brainpicker/status/1101905770466234368   Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Mar 2019

@TulsiGabbard Tulsi talks truth on wars #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com/3ad7VJySZb Permalink 1:27 PM – 1 Mar 2019

@BarbarianCap surprised no one has cc:ed @nntaleb on this comment from a Med Turk finding out he is 80% Greek DNA https://twitter.com/CursedBalkanYT/status/1100117821420437504   Permalink 9:11 PM – 28 Feb 2019

@threadreaderapp Hello, the unroll you asked for: Thread by @BenjaminGJW: “THREAD: Understanding Fractal Localism. Coined by @nntaleb, Fractal Localism is a solution Taleb gives to rising complex []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1101173932919525382.html   Have a good day. Permalink 10:49 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@BenjaminGJW @nntaleb also asks questions more thoroughly in the article this thread is based on. If you’ve made it thus far, I recommend you read it, as it futher expands on this summary I have done. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 9:54 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@ggreenwald Does US media generally now acknowledge: * Michael Cohen was never in Prague; * Trump never directly told Cohen to lie to Congress; * Cohen has no knowledge of any blackmail material Kremlin has over Trump * Cohen knows of no collusion evidence Can we now agree on these facts? Permalink 4:18 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Mr Pinker, @sapinker, does revealing satires about my work except you from answering @DrCirillo and I on the technical flaws in your book & how you manage to misrepresent Richardson’s research? It is NOT going to go away. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1100775802952708097   Permalink 10:28 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@Marcellenassif Studying the conjugation of verb to Write (ktb) in Phoenician. Fascinating pic.twitter.com/Ix3iPhscOr Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “Imperceptibly, time introduces and establishes abuses in the best institutions.” Necker. Which justifies an expiration time for institutions. pic.twitter.com/eLNPaBGMsu Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Logically, since India has ~10 times the GDP of Pakistan, not counting the latter’s yuuuge financial difficulties, and, in the presence of nuclear capabilities, there should be no war. However… https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/1100658657765683200   Permalink 12:56 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:47 PM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb So I run away from CNN and their lunatic conspiracies and I am now having drinks with friends in Moscow… what! CNN! No place to hide. pic.twitter.com/ukylOCImcz Permalink 11:34 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@salilstatistics Taleb: “..pple like @SteveStuWill try to hoodwink you w ‘evidence’ ‘statistics’ & ‘genetics'” And he poorly use Pearson’s correlation (Table 1), even as he confesses normality is violated: “3.4.. statistic is overly sensitive when observed variables are non-normally distributed” Permalink 6:05 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And this shows why you can no longer say “correlation” as it has NO meaning under nonlinearities. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This thread explains HOW pple like Steve Stewart-Williams try to hoodwink you with “evidence”, “statistics”, and “genetics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1100149502500061185   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb East Med/Anatolia/Zagros/Georgia: those who eat the same share the same genes, even when languages differ. Istanbul airport pic.twitter.com/FpbKMgWPhu Permalink 2:33 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- For wages, IQ is often an entry hurdle (via proxies) and needs to be cleaned up for circularity. Yet…. above 60K there is NO correlation between wages and IQ! pic.twitter.com/kDqgtBySVe Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Zagorski 2007, she is citing. And that’s what it shows. “If you are not a total idiot, IQ does not correlate to how rich you will get” is a more appropriate title. Psychologists are both ignorants and frauds, not a good combination. pic.twitter.com/WNROEKbU4s Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No. This is IGNORANT. She is not citing the study but indirectly Zagorski 2017 “Do you have to be smart to be rich?” 1- It ignores noise (yuuuge here). For any practical purposes it is random. Next graph https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1099914389312794625   Permalink 1:30 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@Decafquest O the http://academia.edu   spams. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK”>  pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@hugowiz “In short, every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #quote #freedom #employees pic.twitter.com/xaggbhP14e Permalink 8:15 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A summary of the total result: How counterintuitively with p>½ one is off the hook. Note the distribution takes only even values for odd steps and vice versa. @bilayerguy pic.twitter.com/rq8RIamQ4Z Permalink 5:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have no idea what they are talking about when they discuss “time preferences”. Their “biases” come from not getting the math. Psych = BS. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/w3N4TC3eWn Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@JoshHochschild Anyone interested in: Subsidiarity Distributism Devolution Federalism Needs to read @nntaleb on “fractal localism”: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099952453011816450   Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Snow in Northern Phoenicia this morning. pic.twitter.com/nsFArLZw55 Permalink 4:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Pamphlet on Fractal Localism is developing online…. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 12:41 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Journalists like Nir Rosen should not be dictating norms to Syrians–they can’t get complexity, localism, interractions and drown in big words such as “inclusive”, “assimilation”,”racism”, etc. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1071383862134095874   Permalink 12:11 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MONTE CARLO verification. It works! Survival probability is indeed binary: Lindy above >½. pic.twitter.com/PftGdSEPsn Permalink 3:11 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:53 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is turning out that psychology is indeed the mother of all pseudosciences. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1099791858572713984   Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@cRRonycler For the nitpickers, mentally substitute ‘education’ with ‘education industry’, which is what Taleb means. Permalink 1:42 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Full of nonense: Nir Rosen recites BS by @josephinequinn abt “Phoenician Identity”, plots a racist Syrian identity vs the “inclusive” Arab identity from AUB 1860 historical fraud. Why isn’t a Mediterranean identity (for Syria-Turkey-Caucasus-Zagros) inclusive? He needs training. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1098222665272360960   Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb She does not get it. Education is NOT about learning math. Education is about employing tenured professors, administrators, fund raisers, and, most of all, enriching contractors. https://twitter.com/PardesSeleh/status/1098682386802532352   Permalink 7:11 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb That some detenured (or so) academic became a truck driver may indicate some political prejudice; but it certainly proves that some increasingly larger sections of academia are just unskilled labor. It also proves that BS vending cannot be easily done in the private sector. Permalink 3:30 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reverse. All real life risk takers worry about tails/ergodicity. Unlike academixs. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/davopp/status/1099621494299258880   Permalink 3:12 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The problem with fortune-cookie-brained @Ptetlock is insisting on spreading the wrong notion of #SKininthegame to fit his schtick: it is not about incentives. To repeat: it is a selection mechanism, filtering, something called Darwinian. @bryan_caplan https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1098604763707572225   Permalink 1:28 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/qMbEr7cmX2 Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Quick answer using the Normal Approximation which effectively captures long term behavior & limits: simply (unless I made an error somewhere), with a probability of success >½, you can move away from the barrier and never hit (Lindy). pic.twitter.com/cwexzi5Dge Permalink 4:14 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the game is, simply, filtering. https://twitter.com/sebpeekster/status/1099429467787808769   Permalink 2:36 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason this problem is beautiful because, while the answer can be instant (via handwaving), time to ruin is exactly the Lindy problem. Will post a Lindy solution. For the moment, look up the reflection principle (see Dynamic Heding) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflection_principle_(Wiener_process)   https://twitter.com/bilayerguy/status/1098926919402311680   Permalink 8:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@ektrit I owe to Taleb’s flaneuring for discovering that practical Orthodoxy had become just pagan style following of rituals. 25 years practising orthodox, trained by Athos monks and US missionaries, I noticed that only 5 years ago when I read Taleb. I was shocked. Permalink 8:18 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@cryptofun69 The Russian roulette and upside vs downside sounds straight from @nntaleb https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1099306171960303617   Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR / GEOMETRY You can express ALL nonlinear functions (for machine learning and other applications) using summs of call options, calibrated via the arc tangent of the slope. pic.twitter.com/PIvkyuwi4z Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@PhiloCrocodile Up to the age of 25, you read wholesale & in a mercenary way, to “acquire” a possession, to build a “literary culture”… After 25, you lose your hang-up and start re-reading –and it is precisely what you re-read that reveals your literary soul, what you like. – @nntaleb Permalink 1:58 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “With novelists, names and dates are wrong, the rest is true. With historians, names and dates are correct, the rest is false.” https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books   Permalink 1:01 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@dwnhogendoorn Remember: academics are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Feb 2019

@ArgaizR Just like IQ. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/mededpgh/status/1098964433882284032   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@nntaleb I despise Edward Said Permalink 1:34 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@oldlevantine Sounds like those who say “never mind that #EdwardSaid was a malignant charlatan,” that “his #Orientalism was a sordid work of fakeries, distortions, omissions and fabrications.. What matters is that he instigated a debate on the West’s pernicious renderings of the East.” Really? https://twitter.com/Jeff_Jacoby/status/1098763817776021506   Permalink 6:12 PM – 21 Feb 2019

@mikeandallie retweeting this so that I can come back to what I’m guessing will be a really interesting thread, and also because studying higher dimensional cubes is actually a really fun project for kids! https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1098663374412427264   Permalink 11:20 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Peter Francopan ⁦@peterfrankopan⁩ in the British Museum with his son. Peter can smell the silk roads across history. pic.twitter.com/qDIe5WoRfU Permalink 9:07 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can change the mind of someone who says “no”; never the minds of those who say nothing. Permalink 4:44 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@sergisoliva «Si el mundo se quedara sin fontaneros, los echaríamos de menos de inmediato. Pero si los presuntos expertos [burócratas, politólogos, etc.] desaparecieran, nadie les echaría de menos… salvo sus madres.» @nntaleb en @Papel_EM https://www.elmundo.es/papel/lideres/2019/02/21/5c6af6f721efa0fb378b46ea.html   @EdicionesPaidos Permalink 1:25 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@estimadapaloma «Si desaparecieran los expertos, sólo los echarían de menos sus madres». Nassim Nicholas Taleb [@nntaleb] entrevistado por @gonzalosuarez Vía @Elmundo #JugarselaPiel @EdicionesPaidos http://ow.ly/xv5v30nMqfg   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM”>  pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM Permalink 1:14 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Illuminated books are #Lindy. The main motivation to write a math book (and start a math publishing house to avoid writing on other people’s terms) is to do illuminated books! pic.twitter.com/AQtsb7xxrp Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 He is telling the truth in this case. Btw, I am not not have been a fan of Putin, but when you here the truth, acknowledge it. https://twitter.com/ml_maria_/status/1098180561275940866   Permalink 3:55 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/3K7q4gOUgz Permalink 3:17 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Being a good “forecaster” is meaningless in getting a good P/L. Where I show that 50 y of “expert calibration” research in psychology (decision th) is BS. Like most psychology (IQ< mental biases, Nudgeboy @Richard_Thaler’s work…) Followup on @juliagalef ‘s poll #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/8taEmcrWxM Permalink 3:12 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I learned that you can be interviewed by the New York Times for your obituary. This is thorough fact checking. pic.twitter.com/FBjn0TsXIG Permalink 7:40 AM – 19 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Was it Stefan Molyneux? Did he mention something about IQ? https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1097602461639081986   Permalink 5:52 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@garyruskin With #Monsanto and #Glyphosate on the Run, @AAAS Revokes Award to Scientists Whose Studies Led to Ban on Weedkiller in Sri Lanka and Other Countries. Via @CorpCrimeReport http://bit.ly/2X99r30   “Is corporate corruption eating at the heart of American science?” Permalink 12:20 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Οι ιδέες στο βιβλίο SKIN IN THE GAME εκφράζονται σε blurbs pic.twitter.com/2mtefX4egt Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Darb3shtar είναι ένα προάστιο του Amioun. Τα σταφύλια και το κρασί ανήκουν στο Amioun! Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Hayek #individuality #equality pic.twitter.com/j3YVRDKPMK Permalink 5:39 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@RalphNader See: The Democratic National Committee has voted down a ban on corporate PAC donations https://www.vox.com/2019/2/16/18226344/democratic-national-committee-corporate-pac-donations-tom-perez   via @voxdotcom Permalink 3:42 PM – 17 Feb 2019

@FattestFatTony “It’s much easier to macro BS than it is to micro BS.” -@nntaleb Translation: Ya can’t fool the neighborhood… #localism https://twitter.com/SusanGroff1/status/1097172965962051584   Permalink 8:43 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb @dottorpax gave me the idea that elite French cuisine was a top-down concept for the King, the court and the aristocracy; not so in Italy. https://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/1097162157102452736   Permalink 8:28 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, no, no, no, no !!! Economic decentralization ≠ military decentralization, something the Ottomans (and today’s Chinese) understood very, very well. Aleppo & Homs were 10 times richer (sic) than today (relative to Western Europe) before the Baath centralization policies. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1097126545049686016   Permalink 7:08 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Someone observed about #RWRI that it’s the only lecture she has attended with 3-6 instructors sitting upfront like a governing committee, in continuous disputation. I managed to get my points across by sending Raphael on fake emergencies to get him out of the room. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1097144536646762496   Permalink 6:57 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of “b**llshitter” isn’t someone called “truthful” but someone called “arrogant”. Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It seems that the sophistication of French cuisine arose from the need to mask the lack of freshness of the ingredients –much as perfume came from the need to compensate for bad hygiene. In contrast, Italian and East Med cuisines make salient the freshness of the ingredients. Permalink 5:03 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@GrayConnolly Tucker Carlson’s piece on America’s “war peddlers” is excellent https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-are-these-professional-war-peddlers-still-around-tucker-carlson-max-boot-bill-kristol/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb In the Bronx, if a restrnt has an Italian name (like Angelo’s, Carlo’s) odds it is operated by Albanians. Italian restrnts are likely to be called “Jim’s steakhouse”… Restrnts called “Lebanese” are owned by Syrians. Real Lebanese go by “Mediterranean” or “Phoenician” cuisine. Permalink 5:58 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hope this becomes a trend… A change in the narrative as the electorate doesn’t like war. https://twitter.com/da_stockman/status/1096924240215867392   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The future #RWRI location; the classroom has a direct view of the famous sidewalk where Paul Castellano was wacked by John Gotti’s operative Sammy The Bull. pic.twitter.com/b7o0ZcW47A Permalink 10:14 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My book puts some rigor behind the horrible @juliagalef flaw in rankings of “experts” based on “calibration” & thinking that one can get expectation error VIA probability error. Aside from the fact that, to add insult to injury, she put me in the sale list as @SamHarrisOrg . pic.twitter.com/0kAbEHd3wT Permalink 7:21 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The key is that estimation errors for probabilities are ALWAYS thin- tailed even for Fat-tailed variables. Those for expectation will be fat tailed for fat tailed variables. Which is why @juliagalef rankings of “experts” is an insult to both probability and the real world. Permalink 7:00 PM – 15 Feb 2019

@vtchakarova In life, you’re either the borrower or borrowee; the creditor or creditee; the f*cker or the f*ckee. Make sure that you’re not the f*ckee by being convex & eliminating the risk of ruin. – @nntaleb #RWRI 10, Day 5 Permalink 10:51 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri Finally convinced someone with #SkinInTheGame to buy #Bitcoin…socks. #RWRI 10. pic.twitter.com/MgKUyVXdmN Permalink 9:57 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@101010Lund If you can be squeezed, assume you will be. It’s only a matter of time. #RWRI Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@julioccneto “machine learning discovered that you can decompose a payoff with options of different strikes”. Spectacular brainstorming session with @nntaleb at #RWRI 10 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is “more likely to go up”, yet is very heavily short. Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter. Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space. Survival=calibration. Permalink 6:00 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BS vendor is BS vendor whether you agree or not “on this point” https://twitter.com/EmmettBeech/status/1096406989414879232   Permalink 5:56 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Today #RWRI 10, we discuss: How the “calibration” ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong 1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won’t survive, option traders can be right ~1% #ergodicity Permalink 5:55 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Correction: shd be “under absence of correlation” (uncorrelated vs independent) Permalink 5:47 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri You can’t trust regulation as post-retirement bureaucrats get highly paid jobs in the same industry who you helped while in Govt. @nntaleb #RWRI 10 #ImplicitBribe Permalink 1:25 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The message is that It is a very very bad idea to be both evil and stupid. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1096093772830658561   Permalink 10:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Ilhan Omar Smacks Down Elliott Abrams In Front Of Everybody http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/february/14/ilhan-omar-smacks-down-elliott-abrams-in-front-of-everybody/   Permalink 10:03 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 @normonics @nntaleb As I said, she is becoming more interesting and pay attention to who attacks her… https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1096094247336452103   Permalink 9:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@zerohedge Every Queens real estate broker right now pic.twitter.com/FYKZSe5WT2 Permalink 8:52 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb DAY 4 RWRI 10 Andrea Fontanari asking: Where is the tail? #RWRI pic.twitter.com/AJgj0NJ8b1 Permalink 6:28 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This is EXACTLY why we shd never conflate independence and zero correlation. Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@keithbensons Unless you were a sucker, but then recovered from being a sucker(iatrogenics), that’s an even yuuuuger edge. “Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825241185090428928   Permalink 5:55 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Not being a sucker is also a yuuuuuge edge. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1095830320543420417   Permalink 3:56 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Something I learned this morning: A joint fat-tailed distribution under independence is NOT a product of densities –to preserve ellipticality and “stability” of the Stable Distribution. pic.twitter.com/SBC9rvoFPV Permalink 3:50 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@normonics I never fail to regret spending time and energy engaging the “verbagiastic” (h/t @nntaleb for the term) Permalink 12:53 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI-10: A French mathematician trying to measure the tape using the room. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 12:15 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A fight erupted at RWRI-10. Raphael Douady measuring in “meters”. “This is America, we don’t use the f*** metric system”. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 11:08 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@sergesapiens #RWRI #10 with @nntaleb follows a power law: if you assume that the next day can’t get better you’re likely to be surprised! Permalink 10:38 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI 10 (day 3) Arié Haziza showing how convex costs of catastrophes are: there is a severe nonlinearity as you pay higher and higher prices for materials during reconstruction. Twice the severity => 2.5-4 times the economic costs. pic.twitter.com/xDDiyUl3M0 Permalink 8:42 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer, a comment on a paper by Maestro Spyros Makridakis @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/iaHPNHMri8 Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@mhuckabee1 New personal best today: 275 lbs deadlift x 3 reps. I’ll hit 300 soon. @nntaleb you inspired me! Permalink 4:36 PM – 12 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From “Lebanon” to “Phoenicia”… https://twitter.com/ptashny/status/1095401651840667649   Permalink 11:34 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@TheSuperbubble “commerce brings peace” — @nntaleb https://twitter.com/LarsSchall/status/1095292013321351168   Permalink 4:37 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@paulportesi Lindy. Physical books are engrained with the spirit of life when one holds them. Antilibrary too. @nntaleb 92 percent of students prefer print books, new study shows https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/print-textbooks-vs-ebooks_us_56ba4091e4b0b40245c4534e?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004   Permalink 4:38 PM – 11 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #IQ @charlesmurray #hayek pic.twitter.com/vfsFhq0Wxr Permalink 7:37 AM – 11 Feb 2019

@TheCalmPeople Quote of the day “my mood, my sadness my bouts of anxiety, are a second source of intelligence – perhaps even the first source.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb #Stress #ConflictManagement #AngerManagement #StressManagement #Happiness #MentalHealthMatters pic.twitter.com/Wf295oesYC Permalink 12:40 PM – 10 Feb 2019

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

Keynes, AOC, Bezos, Saudi Barbaria, Nat. Enquirer, Ghosn, IQ, alarm clocks, tawking, Peterson-Golden Rice, Lebanon, Nationalism, Pinker, Kelton,

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Imbecilic Keynesianisticists find *ad hoc* arguments to argue deficits don’t cause inflation. The focus is on “foreign debt”. There are tons of counteramples, including close to me the Lebanese devaluation (rate frm 3/$ -> 1500) that ruined my grandfather https://twitter.com/msilva12000/status/1094644393854844929   Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Industrious BS producing psychologists have been using correlation/regression for 100 years like parrots without trying to figure out what it means intuitively. They can’t even define it. Correlation (unlike mut information) is randomly subadditive or superadditive! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 8:19 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@NeutralTesla And Khashoggi died as the result of a fistfight. Saudi Arabia says has ‘nothing to do’ with Bezos-AMI dispute https://reut.rs/2GjiNnI   @nntaleb Permalink 8:16 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Announcement: Deborah Mayo @learnfromerror has a seminar on the philosophy of statistics. She also has a new book on the subject. Comments to come. pic.twitter.com/AXmhra36mu Permalink 8:12 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From POPPER to FAT TONY *BS detection*, *via negativa*, *not being a sucker*, & asymmetric epistemology are rarely accepted as modi operandi across disciplines. BS detection is the engine of 1) epistemology/science for Popper 2) theology for Orthodoxy 3) business for Fat Tony https://twitter.com/brentdsummers/status/1094561610964684801   Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb …and risk. Please do not give me Keynes as counterexample as he proved to be clueless about risk, but wasn’t as intellectually defective as today’s Keynesians. Permalink 4:29 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason social science calls itself a “science” is because of statistics. And their statistics are practically BS everywhere. I mean, really, everywhere. https://twitter.com/BeagleOnALeash/status/1094345432875089922   Permalink 1:58 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@keithbensons @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HPpx2IWVb8 Permalink 1:02 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Unpublished pictures are worth a lot more than published ones. #NationalEnquirer #UmbertoEcosLibrary Permalink 12:54 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR The phenomenon known as “regression to the mean” is largely a social science illusion. It requires a stable & *known* mean, constant standard deviation, a thin-tailed distribution, & homogeneous cohorts. Permalink 11:52 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is easiest to do the most when you have nothing to do. Permalink 10:09 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The maximum success is reached when you are never busy. https://twitter.com/extrachelle/status/1093857798612545538   Permalink 6:14 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@yzilber Gawker were saints Vs Nat Etq. Nate Enq are mafia Gawker were just crude thugs misbehaving Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What Occasio is saying on lobby funding is right, healthy, & perfectly compatible with libertarianism/localism. These distortions/hijacking of representation are the product of a centralized system. Let us make sure these ideas of sound governance are not marketed as “socialist”. https://twitter.com/JKCorden/status/1093634176845139968   Permalink 9:26 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas I don’t think Dunning Krueger is real or Lindy https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1093909071336562688   Permalink 8:48 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The most unsettling part of the @JeffBezos story is the very high possibility that Saudi Arabia is blackmailing the current U.S. president. Even in the case of Bezos, blackmailing on behalf of a foreign government has some legal consequences. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093845565333475329   Permalink 7:02 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man “You can’t eat Sharpe ratios.” @Bloomberg @ErikSchatzker https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1086321274522165248   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093515067600056320   Permalink 6:59 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” 2- I block idiots. Like immediately. Nothing personal. Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: Noah Smith @Noahpinion has a long history of commenting on papers & books he didn’t read. Yet how come such a fraud still exists? Only because he represents a certain socialist line? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1093863981478019072   Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MORAL OF THE STORY: – If Saudi Barbaria & the Nat. Enquirer can explicitly blackmail the richest person in the most powerful country, where does it leave the rest of us? – Remember we were saved from Gawker that was in the business of ruining the lives of college students. https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1093643321732464646   Permalink 4:14 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntalebbot “Regular minds find similarities in stories (and situations); finer minds detect differences.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@Safaitic I will be giving a lecture at ISAW ( http://isaw.nyu.edu/  ) on March 29-30 at a workshop on the Nessana Papyri. I imagine it will be open to the public so please join us and hear about the trilingual language situation of the town in the 6th c. CE. Permalink 12:10 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- (Ghosn) I know numerous billionaires; I’ve met many CEOs. Billionaires tend to live as if they were CEOs; CEOs tend to live as if they were billionaires. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Ghosn fell prey to the “show me the man, I will find you a crime”. Someone with enemies should be obsessive about creating a web a “plausible deniability” ahead of time. You need to stay at least one step ahead of your enemies, in France two steps, and in Japan, three. Permalink 9:38 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@NonMeek A good rule of thumb is to focus on what people do instead of what they say. #NOskininthegame = #BS pic.twitter.com/Qp3L9kb8WI Permalink 7:48 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM CARLOS GHOSN? (Thread) Ghosn is a very competent man but 1- One cannot behave like Henry Ford or Louis XIV if one is getting a salary/under corporate bondage. Worse: one is NEVER free when getting a salary. Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Universa’s Spitznagel on Fed Policy, Hedge Funds and Insuring Market Risk https://youtu.be/xiBjBkXBHLw   via @YouTube Permalink 6:21 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-06/nietsche-optimizing-risk-and-embracing-disasters   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @zerohedge #Nietzsche #AmorFati ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J”>  pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J Permalink 6:17 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The IQ thingy by psychologists/BS vendors is drawing me back to the problem of non-elipticality of distributions. Correlation is much harder to work with than you think. (from my next book) pic.twitter.com/k2R1Z86dHd Permalink 1:54 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any positive advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. (corrected to fix the meta-problem). Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Finally figured out. “IQ” doesn’t test for intelligence; rather how likely a person is likely to become a state-solution loving socialist. Permalink 11:01 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@normonics genetics is good for sorting out history, as @nntaleb is doing, but is terrible for making predictions or describing how macroscopic behaviors and properties unfold from genetics, given our current knowledge and abilities. Permalink 8:44 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@thackerpd Nina Federoff is the former President of AAAS. She is now an advisor to a law firm that lobbies for the agrochemical industry and a critic of #GMO reporting “Flacking for GMOs: How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media—and Discourages Criticism” https://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/   Permalink 7:57 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Those who aren’t in it for the money won’t tell you that they aren’t in it for the money. Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school professor. Permalink 7:15 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who has to work for a living. Permalink 7:03 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2nd Lecture at Tandon on probability, showed how under some conditions (conservation) Max Entropy leads to the Gaussian. Adding the derivations to my book. pic.twitter.com/I6y85F8Bsi Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hayda tzwir térikhé. L-lbnénéné (w l mashr2é/néoKn3ané) lghétna l2mm. Permalink 4:55 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb An indicator of freedom and bondage: how often did you have to use an alarm clock this month? Permalink 4:52 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@LindyEffect Erasmus pic.twitter.com/x98fdqwYyZ Permalink 6:41 PM – 5 Feb 2019

@sentantiq Tonight Dani Bostick will be live tweeting the State of the Union Address in Latin. Look out for @danibostick and the hashtag #LatinSOTU https://sententiaeantiquae.com/2019/02/05/the-state-of-our-union-in-latin/   Permalink 8:58 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@normonics Quick GMO complexity lesson: A central challenge in complexity studies is understanding how microscopic properties and behaviors flow upwards in scale and produce macroscopic behaviors It turns out this is a VERY hard problem Permalink 8:47 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Removed the Abstract (it was a teaser before submission to a journal)… Will repost in a few. Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My contribution to the problem is here https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085879808624607232   Permalink 5:22 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@MaxAbrahms New report adds even more evidence that American weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gone to Al Qaeda and its friends in Yemen. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/02/middleeast/yemen-lost-us-arms/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is dishonest to claim that the rich of yesterday are the same as those of today. Ergodicity https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 8:37 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@EconTalker This is dishonest. Not the same people in those groups every year. Your picture and your tweet make it seem otherwise. It’s not a zero-sum game and every serious economist knows it. You should too. https://medium.com/@russroberts/do-the-rich-capture-all-the-gains-from-economic-growth-c96d93101f9c   https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1092397923009204224   Permalink 8:19 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: RATIONALITY John 1،1:Ἐν ἀρχῇ ἦν ὁ λόγος, mistransl. “in the beginning was the verb” shd بع “First, there is reasoning”. The Peshita, uses “Béréshit (for beginning, shd be “principally”) MLL for verb =”abilitlity to speak” λόγος= منطق= מלל NOT كلمة #Lindy pic.twitter.com/8Tc9CLXHWO Permalink 6:12 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@zerohedge The term “neoliberal warmongers” is thus born https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1092245449304612869   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 I thought that correlation was a bad measure because super-additive [relu/sigmoids] rho[a+b]>rho[a]+rho[b]. Turns out it is also sub-additive [exponential]. In other words, there are very very very narrow conditions where one can safely use correlation. Permalink 6:32 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And of course Patrick Moore whose dangerous, dishonest (& exploitative) arguments psychologist @jordanbPeterson was diffusing is a well identified shill for glyphosate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovKw6YjqSfM   Permalink 3:31 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The point is not if someone is right or wrong. It is if someone is a bullshitter, tawking about stuff he doesn’t know nothing about or giving you verbalistic arguments that sound good. He will be a bullshitter EVEN if he later turns out to be right. https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1092138559283384320   Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When you are, say, a physicist, you don’t argue abt quantum mechanics w/an astrologer for the sake of “listening to all sides”. I just block people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom I DO NOT want to have an exchange because you DO NOT learn/advance from bullshit. Gabish? Permalink 11:05 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Actually it is not just virtue signaling but Peterson’s DISGUSTING use of appeal to pity or some FAKE humanitarianism “because blindness” to justify selling speculative options in place of less lucrative more robust ones. Similar to pedophrasty. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 10:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb OUR PRECAUTIONARY PPLE WITH RESPECT TO GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@olivierglinec Avez vous lu cela: https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/nicolas-hulot-monsanto-a-demande-a-une-officine-belge-de-soccuper-de-ma-reputation-3850433   Permalink 10:02 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb There are antecedents https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1092119956597235717   Permalink 9:58 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I block @JordanbPeterson for violation of intellectual integrity/virtue signaling. pic.twitter.com/8HDRPXmtdZ Permalink 9:48 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb These tweets explain that if you have a nonlinear function, say IQ vs performance, then “correlation” is tooooootally meaningless mathematically, & multidimensional “factors” are even worse. This is of some relevance for machine learning with the ReLu function. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1091820909281923073   Permalink 8:18 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb ANSWER: found a counterexample f(x)=Exp[x]. Overall correlation is always lower (up to ~40%) than that of any subsample! MORAL: Use psychometrics/psychology books for winter fuel as many citizens have difficulties with their heating bills. pic.twitter.com/FctDnzdLT1 Permalink 6:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/xAcAhnGg8R Permalink 2:11 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE INEQUALITY DU JOUR pic.twitter.com/vaCY0gAlnV Permalink 2:09 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Palestinians are dominated by J1 pic.twitter.com/AlxfmkVmPQ Permalink 10:53 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When people makes public apologies and acts of contrition, they are mostly sorry that they were caught. Permalink 6:31 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@Monsantobuster Falkenstein spent 21 years smearing Taleb with lies and strawman. Is he so stupid as not to realize he can get caught? http://fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34″>  pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34 Permalink 5:02 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lamma tfshal ma7ada byid3amak mitl ahl blédak w lamma tnja7 ma7ada byi7sadak w bkhazwék fik mitl ibn baladak Permalink 7:04 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@SituationO Lebanon’s new government has 4 female ministers: – @rayaelhassan ,(Interior), Future Movement – @violetteksafadi ,(Woman affairs), Future Movement – @may_chidiac ,(Administrative reform), Lebanese Forces – @NadaBoustani ,(Energy), Free Patriotic Movement Congrats! pic.twitter.com/3PahUeWcX8 Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What is working in Lebanon is that it doesn’t have two factions, but at least three. Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@yaneerbaryam Switzerland is a country of peace, stability & prosperity. Our analysis shows that peace doesn’t depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well-defined topographical & political boundaries separating groups @arutherfordium @GardMurray @future_andi https://necsi-global.org/good-fences-the-importance-of-setting-boundaries-for-peaceful-coexistence/?rq=switzerland   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM”>  pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 4 women in Lebanese government. The rest is details. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1091414421732249601   Permalink 12:09 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Fractal Localism pic.twitter.com/kY2zjrzDLD Permalink 12:02 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BARBARIAN SUPREMACISM From now on, you can call “White” supremacists BARBARIAN SUPREMACISTS Northrn Europe does not have a monopoly on Caucasian. (Note I permanently blocked @RazibKhan as he could not substantiate what “flaws” he claimed in our GMO risk paper, hence his watch) pic.twitter.com/zdX8rsH5U3 Permalink 9:15 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more. #BedofProcrustes https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1091288735721967616   Permalink 8:02 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can easily have a nation-state with 2, even 4 languages (Belgium, Switzerland), but you can’t easily have a nation-state with 2 religions. #Localism Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@booksoftitans The Bed of Procrustes by @nntaleb just $2.99 on @AmazonKindle and @AppleBooks today – https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms-ebook/dp/B004C43F9S   – https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/the-bed-of-procrustes/id420518445   Permalink 7:28 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- In other words, there exist a system where you can be a Maronite/Shiite/Armenian nationalist without imposing your preferences on others, and without others imposing their preferences on you. It’s localism. Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It was PRECISELY the removal of multiculturalism by Arabists that fucked it up. Permalink 6:06 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Nationalism is an idea that came about in the 19th C., messed up Greece/Turkey, destroyed Alexandria, Saloniki, Aleppo, Smyrna, Constantinople. French nationalism is absurd:Provencal localism is not. Now people are getting Fractal localism and City-states as a natural order. Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM/LEBANON Maronites are obsessed w/Lebanese Nationalism=Maronite homeland; don’t consider us the Rhum (Greek Orthodox) minority (~5%) as part of their ethnos: we are too Mediterraneanists/Universalists w/foreign allegiances. Hence a Swiss-style bottom-up Localism. https://twitter.com/sarkis_charles/status/1091241380268130304   Permalink 5:55 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Closed for RWRI-10. We gave 20 full and partial scholarships in total for RWRI-10. Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@oliviergay Same with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. On his interrogation on hiding non-existing WMD: “Western governments and their intelligence agencies had failed to realize that Saddam was more fearful of attack by Iran than by the US.” https://twitter.com/RidT/status/1077944842896982016   Permalink 5:07 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #9: https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1087681642599276545   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #1 https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1088339650333294594   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@ole_b_peters Very nice. This precise mathematical error is all over economics. Do something invalid with a limit or an infinity and claim whatever you want. When you point out such an error, you’re told economic theories don’t have to be mathematically correct, they just have to sound smart. https://twitter.com/Undercoverhist/status/1075912850269487104   Permalink 1:11 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas Imagine having this “genetic intelligence test” and not being rich https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1091038511233421313   Permalink 2:02 PM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT We have a 100% scholarship left for RWRI-10 for a woman, preferably Syrian or Venezuelan, or from a troubled part of the planet, preferably a doctoral student, preferably a nonpsychologist. NEED TO APPLY TODAY Feb 11-15, NY. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:37 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, psychometric measures best the extreme unintelligence of psychometricians. https://twitter.com/ThomasGrava/status/1091055576237395970   Permalink 11:32 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@fpontaza Chef @ArielTrodArgent had us for dinner last night and honored his Lebanese ancestry with his Lindy recipe for keppe crudo. You rarely get to experience something so great from so far away in Guatemala. We raised our glasses for @nntaleb! pic.twitter.com/9CjgNQ4pMM Permalink 11:24 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@AdibChristian Looking into using #GoogleAutoMLTranslation to create a translation engine that can process Lebnééné/NeoKanaané. Thoughts? @BLebnene https://cloud.google.com/translate/   Permalink 10:44 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5- Something about Persia that the Trump administration is clueless: Persia obsessed Greeks, Romans, Arabs, then Ottomans for the past 2400 years. Rome was broke frm the 700 y Persian wars. Unconquered in spite of short lived fake successes: Alexander, Herakles, Arabs, etc.. Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090986235223568384   Permalink 8:08 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- The Ottomans also used the Byzantine administration. They even brought the Levant back into “Rome”. They also protected Orthodoxy from Catholic “Europe”… for a while. Look at the map. https://twitter.com/hzkathulhu/status/1090988564886810625   Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Something @peterfrankopan got: Ottomans didn’t give a f*** abt “Rome” since Rome itself moved closer to the wealth, the silk road, & was now Constantinople. Before wealth from the Americas the West was an economic desert. Turks shared w/Romans & Byzantines the Persian obsession. Permalink 7:10 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Turks’ anger at the Russians was that Ivan IV took the title of Tsar, “Ceasar” when the Ottomans believed that, after Mehmed, THEY were the official successors of Caesar. https://twitter.com/EALTurner/status/1090975867583557632   Permalink 6:43 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb People forget that Soliman’s predecessor 130 years before, Bayazid, proclaimed himself Sultan-r-Rum (Roman Sultan), about a century before the fall of Constantinople. Another issue about “East-West”: the Byzantine church, until the 1800s, felt “East”, operated ~1000y under Islam. https://twitter.com/RenderuntoG/status/1090810150883971073   Permalink 6:00 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Article by @xriskology seems to find it generalized… https://www.salon.com/2019/01/26/steven-pinkers-fake-enlightenment-his-book-is-full-of-misleading-claims-and-false-assertions/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Note that our bone w/Pinker @sapinker is that his citations don’t match his statistical claims. He started with a conclusion, then tried to find data to confirm it. Here his central claim is bunk. Calling me bellicose/arrogant isn’t a scientific answer. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=670117070070069017069127022113081120031047031042055074081065126024120067069003090124049107118055103025009099127064108125084119028035061021010087093100074084092109046023010095001099096093092082102029123024102008084001102122009080080028117086117113021&EXT=pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25″>  pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25 Permalink 4:57 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gaussian case: a beautiful sqrt pi function a la Sirling. pic.twitter.com/VMsG0qfoeg Permalink 1:39 PM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exception: Mike B @MikeBloomberg… any other? Permalink 11:53 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A triangle inequality entailing partial correlation. pic.twitter.com/XlOivnHVbF Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/43G0ocDLcB Permalink 7:05 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A neat theorem about the asymmetry of correlation: if downside correlation is 100% and upside correlation is 0%, total correlation will show ~90%! Moral: 1) never use the word correlation under asymmetry 2) use psychometrics textbooks for winter fuel 3) close psych departments pic.twitter.com/sdOh3P5IRC Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@rationalwalk Nikki is now in the “private sector” where she will cash in on past favors, take down payments in future favors, and end up with a 8+ figure net worth from which to plot a return to “public service”. Rinse, repeat, path to riches and power. https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1090613317306122240   Permalink 6:59 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In a long career, I’ve (almost) never seen anyone get rich while employed (via bonuses/stock options, as w/bankers, CEOs, & rich slaves), & subsequently also make money on their own, in self employment. If you can’t make it on your own, it’s #rentseeking. Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Never ever call me a polymath. I am a probabilist. Nothing else. That’s sufficient. Please. Permalink 5:16 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@TrevMalley Nassim has a knack for getting to the real meat of the argument. These people may as well claim the Japanese as fellow whites if they’re going to use the achievements of the Ancient Mediterranean world as an argument for their grandeur Permalink 5:10 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Real squid ink smudges. pic.twitter.com/PBa0xZCgwX Permalink 4:59 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In other words, better say: “you mean Barbarian supremacists?” rather than imitate some SJW harangue. Permalink 4:52 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The way to deal with racists is to NEVER use moral arguments (they are insensitive to them). Just prove to them that their “race”… was comparatively sub-par for a very, very, very long time. Just like the current condition of “inferior” races. That, they can’t handle. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087763053515603968   Permalink 4:42 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@trishankkarthik Debate is for suckers Permalink 4:39 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Excited to find in my mailbox the book by @ErwanLeCorre from whom I’ve learned so much about natural fitness/#antifragility. pic.twitter.com/A57GM8yM9E Permalink 3:14 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong. Permalink 2:32 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@paulportesi Can somebody explain to me why the f*** should a utility company get bonuses? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1090352637478912002   Permalink 1:04 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am certain that over the past 5000 years, nobody has had to use an IQ test to choose between: surgeons, gardeners, physicists, hitmen, massage professionals, fortune tellers, spanish grammar specialists, or Swahili-to-Medieval Latin translators. https://twitter.com/fpingham/status/1090311581467058176   Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ WRAPUP These IQ psychologogs can’t answer my point abt elementary yet severe mathematical flaws w/the “IQ” measure. All I got is a downpour of BS from @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, @StuartJRitchie, @Ptetlock, the @Quillette boys “IQ”≠ Mental abilities https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=szXf0VLuQLg   Permalink 8:00 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild “another—doubtless very different—Boethius” @Hannah_Cristine totally got my review of @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/m33N7XjZ3Z Permalink 6:28 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@epigraphed Two people can be using the same word, meaning different things, yet continue the conversation, which is fine for coffee, but not when making decisions, particularly policy decisions affecting others. @nntaleb https://link.medium.com/yTtEwBiiJT   Permalink 3:25 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@LePoint Laetitia Strauch-Bonart – La bataille du QI Au grand dam de nombre d’experts, l’essayiste Nassim Nicholas Taleb remet en question la fiabilité et la pertinence des tests de quotient intellectuel >> http://bit.ly/2RUE5xX   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS”>  pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS Permalink 2:14 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@TheAnnaGat That is true. I showcase my communication and problem-solving skills by not having been blocked by @nntaleb (yet) even though I have responded to him. Permalink 12:53 PM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ is a scientific swindle –A brief explanation of the math https://youtu.be/szXf0VLuQLg   via @YouTube Permalink 7:50 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg #VolatilityMonster pic.twitter.com/zTJPea3WAi Permalink 6:05 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@ESFLiberty #LibertyCon19 is also featured on the newest edition of Journal des Libertés! Spot us on page 150! C’est très excité You can access the publication here http://bit.ly/2sQz9vl   Register now at http://LibertyCon.net  ! @SFL_France @lawrencewr @nntaleb @tomgpalmer ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886″>  pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886 Permalink 6:02 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@seltzer_c “Je suis pour le principe de subsidiarité qui me semble le plus efficace politiquement et économiquement. Politiquement, je suis localiste. L’individu ne doit être géré que par des gens qui vivent avec lui.” ⁦@nntaleb, ITW par ⁦@EugenieBastie⁩ http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 5:00 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- Another spuriousness in the neuroscience literature: Never trust any “evidence” from Neuroscience or psychobyllshutmetrics without redoing the math. We use as a standard Pinker’s deffender the charlatan @michaelshermer who pollutes intellectual life with pseudoempiricism. pic.twitter.com/CzLS41qVHa Permalink 4:39 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The answer and the Monte Carlo illustration shows how hard it is to explain that “randomness does not look random”. pic.twitter.com/ypPsnyJxNh Permalink 3:58 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ DU JOUR, around “Fooled by Randomness”. How to ferret out pseudo-empiricism (or where “empirical evidence is not empirical evidence”): What are the odds of getting a spurious “cancer cluster”? [FIRST CLASS TANDON TONIGHT] pic.twitter.com/pQnpeumSfz Permalink 3:34 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Ab alio expectes alteri quod feceris Permalink 7:24 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb GrecoLebanese proverb du jour: Lkalb mabi 3add khayyo (Caninas caninam non est -κυων κυνός ουχ απτεται) Permalink 7:06 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That psychobullshit: “psychometric intelligence” is not even intelligence, but some crappy number used 1) to employ psychologists, 2) put down some race. Permalink 6:18 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This is what nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_thaler never understood. Evolution is NOT an incentive but a FILTER. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1089675741288112128   Permalink 4:08 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/1WqDtJV4BM Permalink 12:50 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@financequant Effective tax rates across time: https://taxfoundation.org/taxes-rich-1950-not-high/   I am posting this not because I necessarily agree with all of the conclusions. The facts are that the proportion of income paid by the rich hasn’t changed as much as a naïve view of the tax rates would indicate. Permalink 11:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists don’t get PCAs under nonlinearity: if the factors correlate with any mental difficulties, the g will give the illusion of robustness WITHOUT being predictive OTS. It is easy to prove the g is a scientific swindle. ( I actually did) https://twitter.com/cfchabris/status/1089365903693762566   Permalink 11:26 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Vatican II reminds me a performance of Trovatore I attended in Chicago years ago. The singing was in English “for clarity”. I walked out 2 minutes into the opera. Conversely, Imagine the Beatles translated (and sung) into Slovenian. Permalink 11:00 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Taleb once tweeted when asked “If you had one thing to tell a child, what would it be?”. He replied “Time is smarter than you.” I like that. Permalink 9:22 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is capitalism that pulled billions out of poverty. Not vapid virtue signaling. Permalink 8:51 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In Fooled by Randomness: Vatican II destroyed Catholicism by translating the sacred into ordinary language. Meanwhile Judaism & Islam never debased the texts away from Hebrew and Arabic, resp. The current Bishop of Rome @Pontifex is continuing the destruction started in 1962. pic.twitter.com/gyvBHfv3Hx Permalink 8:13 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am so lucky 1) to be born in the Byzantine Orthodox Church, & 2) that we had a schism with the bishop of Rome in 1054. https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1089327127277621248   Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You can give a 99% probability that those who hate my style and find it arrogant are… psychologists or social scientists. https://twitter.com/andeanmckena/status/1089546744168415234   Permalink 7:38 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My black list doesn’t necessarily include people who have been to the Davos WEF. It includes those who have been to Davos more than once. Permalink 7:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The honest person isn’t the one who has never sinned. It’s the one who has never committed any sin more than once. Permalink 7:24 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Reading the excellent @peterfrankopan #thesilkroads and the more I read, the more I see proofs of something @nntaleb pointed out to me: it’s wealth that creates education, not the other way round. Primum vivere… pic.twitter.com/WHc3QQA9SW Permalink 6:10 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler: nerds use the ruler to measure the table; Fat Tonies (and real scientists) use the table to measure the ruler. https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1089258974501756928   Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My takeaway: people with inferior intelligence should refrain from engaging in smear campaigns. But, again, one needs to be of inferior intelligence to get into smear campaigns. Permalink 6:07 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Davos WEF tried & failed to smear me for calling them IAND (Int’l Association of Name Droppers): head of communication Adrian Monck @amonck kept claiming I don’t reference Popper in The Black Swan (Popper, referenced 53 times, has an entire chapter). https://twitter.com/GeorgeJNasr/status/962353415715246080   Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Kind of people that I block immediately as these type of fallacious questions destroy the debate. pic.twitter.com/o24gOqWRst Permalink 5:18 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@zinarosek As part of my legal work on the Genocide against Iraqi Christians, I have a list & files on neocon warcriminals who played key role in the Genocide. John Bolton & Elliott Abrams (laughing evilly in video) are both on the list. @POTUS’ admin has hired both. pic.twitter.com/9dAUHPgO1r Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOTE TO THE ALT-RIGHT: I got plenty of ethnic hatred by quack-Molyneux/Charles Murray’s crowd. I am not complaining, but for Baal’s sake, 1) I am Greek Orthodox (not Muslim) and… 2) Lebanon has no desert. It’s on the Med. So please remember: Lebanon has no desert. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/0rqo9De7Aj Permalink 5:11 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@NonMeek ”…70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the 2nd generation, and a whopping 90% by the third generation.” Shocking read for those who still believe there are safe asset classes. https://twitter.com/mebfaber/status/1088505078946787329   Permalink 12:14 AM – 25 Jan 2019

@Firsou Someone who takes no risks should not throw stones at people who have offloaded most of the initial risk to themselves. Entrepreneurs are heroes. Permalink 12:26 PM – 24 Jan 2019

@olivierglinec La bataille du QI dans le point aujourd’hui/IQ battle in the french paper Le Point pic.twitter.com/HuztqjXhIx Permalink 8:04 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@DrCirillo In studying war casualties and other historical data, you have to treat them as imprecise random observations. If you don’t, all your subsequent analyses will be flawed. cc @nntaleb Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@EugenieBastie Mon interview avec Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb ) iconoclaste et génial auteur du “Cygne noir” et d'”Antifragile” : «La modernité hait l’incertitude, elle ne voudrait que des bons élèves» http://premium.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 3:16 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Some work on this is being done by complexity physicist @yaneerbaryam . Yaneer can you tweetstorm? https://twitter.com/otrasenda_ac/status/1088204786908852225   Permalink 3:13 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@ryanpflynn This is what happens when Nerdified Public-Health Bureacrats come up w/ a “solution” to a nerdified problem. Go play outside. @nntaleb @Mangan150 https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1088163109133578240   Permalink 12:07 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@fermatslibrary A visual proof why 1+3+5+…+(2n-1)=n² = Permalink 5:45 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Studies of the handwriting of Mozart, Einstein, or Fat Tony are nothing but fetichism & reliquiae worship passing for scholarship —residual paganistic practices in a pseudo-atheist society. And state funded, of course. https://twitter.com/britishlibrary/status/1088063054716252160   Permalink 5:35 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that Beirut is starting to have the Miami look. You can’t travel anymore. pic.twitter.com/f87oDVsbyO Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Appendix to new book on why Black Scholes doesn’t work under power laws pic.twitter.com/3ghxFlQo33 Permalink 10:01 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gerrymandering based on later categories: There was Christendom, vs Land of Islam and we are using the most recent categorization. “Europe” has traditionally started with Christianity’s limit on the East & (North of the Med) Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087770487462203393   Permalink 9:59 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087708976261808129   Permalink 9:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Stop the fake news + historical gerymandering promoted by quack-quack Molyneux & Charles Murray: Before 1600 Northern “Europe” contributed to ~ nothing. Nazi “Aryans” appropriated the growth of the Med/S. W. Eurasia by making (Ancient) Greeks members of the same “race”. Quacks. pic.twitter.com/MB96KybY9V Permalink 9:24 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@Scale_Trust — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FNfhf5391v Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@iosif_lazaridis Sad that people have to waste their time for this: “20 of 49 statements presented to me for review on January 2 were incorrect, and 27 of the 36 statements presented to me for review on January 5 were incorrect.” Five Corrections to The New York Times https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/five-corrections-new-york-times   Permalink 6:30 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It happened. 2009. https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087705510432964613   Permalink 5:44 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb And of course hear that the President of China is talking about Black Swan without having to show up to the Davos meeting of the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers) https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1087638941984006150   Permalink 5:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@imleslahdin – You know what one should call a test that encourages poor statisticd hygiene? a “statistics deficit test” (SD test) instead of an “intelligent quotient test” – @lpachter Very interesting read if you have been following the @nntaleb IQ threads. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2018/06/04/low-iq-scores-predict-excellence-in-data-science/   Permalink 9:55 PM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Statistic for the Four Population Test https://www.academia.edu/38192150/Statistic_for_the_Four_Population_Test?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 11:50 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@pacha111 “During the collapse of the Sui Dynasty there was a bandit lord named Meng Haigong who had a special hatred for scholars and bureaucrats. Whenever he took a highborn captive he’d carefully *misquote* a Confucian classic in front of them. If they pointed out the error, they died” Permalink 8:27 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- Something unknown by *IQ idiots w/sinister theories* (s.a. @charlesmurray @primalpoly): NONLINEARITY. Variables that correlate only ½ the time show ρ >.855 (Gaussian case) but rises to ρ>.92 in absense of tapering of tail values. These are basic notions. Probability is hard. pic.twitter.com/8iQHo9cARm Permalink 5:28 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1- SIMPLEST CASE: Correlation with a constant will show a positive correlation. But there is a loooooooot worse. pic.twitter.com/DFhzYsLqp3 Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (this time, difficult) There are many known examples of fake independence: random variables X & Y can be more dependent than shown in correlation. (x & Y=x^x for instance) Can you find instances of X & Y that more correlated than dependent? Permalink 4:20 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “A half-man (or, rather, half-person) is not someone who does not have an opinion, just someone who does not take risks for it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Insight by @ArthurB about IQ as an inverse metric: Gifted pple exhibit skills-specific competence: geometry, drawing, algebra, patents, wealth, creations… The subset of [1) Losers who can’t do anything & 2) & scored high on IQ] will show their “IQ”. So IQ = adverse selection. Permalink 5:02 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@Iluvpizzayum I have a business. I hate rent-seekers. Permalink 12:34 AM – 20 Jan 2019

Mesopotamia, Miami, Migrations, Molyneux, PSYCHOLOGY, Monsanto, 2018, Wittgenstein’s Ruler, “IQ”, Pinker, One Tweetstorm, Mongolians, Charles Murray, Isaac Levi,

@spyrosmakrid USA TODAY Article Published Jan 18, 19 “Do you have High Blood Pressure (HBP)? It depends on which doctor you ask” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2019/01/18/high-blood-pressure-guidelines-american-heart-association-college-cardiology/2607407002/   AND which study you use (some saying HBP decreases life expectancy by 5 years others by couple of months) https://openheart.bmj.com/content/1/1/e000048   @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7rMRj5DDVO”>  pic.twitter.com/7rMRj5DDVO Permalink 8:18 AM – 19 Jan 2019

@Lipsie ( message to #Millennials ) Bae (s), “you want to help mankind, start a business” a.k.a stop taking long haul flights to have your photos taken with black kids suburbs of Nairobi. Yeet ? Now bounce xxx c/o @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 2:21 AM – 19 Jan 2019

@nntaleb (And no, I am not setting foot in South Beach. Not even for squid ink.) Permalink 4:02 PM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists, among other very serious defects, cherrypick data. https://twitter.com/jbenton/status/1085960543079419905   Permalink 2:46 PM – 18 Jan 2019

@l0bbelt In true Talebian tradition, I will block you because you are an idiot. Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@TimMcCoy5 I follow maths expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Here’s why – his on the record predictions in May 2016 pic.twitter.com/RJ0qALhSZ4 Permalink 10:19 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/8usJEXuHge Permalink 9:55 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@NonMeek Here’s the #Offshore IQ -collection in its entirety. I gather intelligence is mostly about not being stupid. This collection will help with that. [inspired by @nntaleb & #IQ-tweetstorm] pic.twitter.com/MuE271iWcv Permalink 7:56 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Miami (downtown): Something refreshing about a town devoid of any pretense of intellectualism. Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Basic analytical problems pervade psychology. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1086259582052286465   Permalink 7:24 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Look at things from probability… Remember Cramer & other dist of gaps between primes. pic.twitter.com/IndsleeIp6 Permalink 7:23 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Goes flat, then fools you with a jump. https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1083722706963582976   Permalink 4:51 AM – 18 Jan 2019

@Firsou The dietary data that they used to constitute the “Mediterranean Diet Pyramid”, that Willett considered “the optimal diet”, was collected in Crete during Lent, when no meat or dairy are consumed until Easter. They are basing their recommendations on pure BS @Mangan150 pic.twitter.com/IyhOPvL55V Permalink 12:24 PM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 That historical accounts of migrations are largely fiction: there have been little movement in S. W. Eurasia [Mediterranean + Anatolia] since the Bronze age. Ancient Greeks weren’t blond “Aryans”; looked like someone in Astoria. https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1085894427263070209   Permalink 6:56 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Precisely why Psychology is nonsense: you call their BS they claim that there is something wrong with you. [ Incidentally there is little new & true psychologists know that was not perfected by 1) thieves, 2) used car salesmen, 3)magicians. ] https://twitter.com/benrobbins/status/1085898485788856326   Permalink 6:05 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis (Clearly the statement by the quack-quack Molyneux that the population of Mesopotamia was “replaced” by peninsulars & other invaders doesn’t hold.) Permalink 5:26 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The entire problem with closing psychology departments: you need a place to put (talkative) neurotic people. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085635799209660416   Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My genetics (probability) paper. pic.twitter.com/IIte4sC2lK Permalink 4:41 AM – 17 Jan 2019

@nntaleb μεράκι = soul in the game. Permalink 5:53 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Why statistician are way out of their depth w/BIG DATA: + To a statistician, there are single variables, scalars, vectors, and matrices, separate “tings” in various degrees of complication. + To a probabilist, a scalar is just a low dimensional matrix. All the same “ting”. Permalink 4:32 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Neaaaaaaat https://twitter.com/samuelgwalters/status/1085373506643156992   Permalink 2:51 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Salibi, genetics show, is largely fabrication. #science #rigor https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1085623558242426880   Permalink 2:39 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@pennedtweets And if I follow logically, we arrive back at bottom up localism. Beautiful. Though it’s daunting and deliberately demanding, it seems there’s much to nobly devote one’s life to in this space for the foreseeable future. Very exciting. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PSYCHOLOGY has contributed to nothing nonBS in its history (hence “IQ” shtick) -nothing real & unknown to grandmothers. PROBLEM: if we close psych depts in univ., would it be riskier since psychologists can cause WORSE damage in other jobs (drivers, pizza delivery, journalism)? Permalink 12:31 PM – 16 Jan 2019

@ArmandDAngour Whereas COMPERICLITY is having #skininthegame @nntaleb https://twitter.com/haggardhawks/status/1085503179528261633   Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@TheOppoMan @gillette It is immoral to claim virtue in order to make a buck! @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 6:09 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@VasMusca On IQ tests: “Take the sequence {1,2,3,4,x}. Only someone clueless about induction would answer 5 as if it were the only answer. And not only clueless, but obedient enough to want to think in a certain way.” Sad that they’re so used. – via @nntaleb: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:18 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@AutomaticEarth Debt Rattle January 16 2019 | EU approval of Roundup was based on docs straight out of Monsanto propaganda texts. Now Canada sees no risks in Roundup. We seriously risk losing this one. High time for new weapons. @nntaleb https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2019/01/debt-rattle-january-16-2019/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZLzTbKG5CO”>  pic.twitter.com/ZLzTbKG5CO Permalink 3:09 AM – 16 Jan 2019

@paulportesi The problem with modernity-abundance. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/YiddishProverbs/status/1085408117964312581   Permalink 10:23 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Yes – it has arrived. @ErwanLeCorre @MovNat pic.twitter.com/JYUmW2rx05 Permalink 4:08 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb As with GMOs & Pinker boy, I do not aim at changing the mind of bigots, IQ pple, psychologists, & pseudostatisticians. All I can do is expose them & change the mind of a certain intelligent audience. And it works. pic.twitter.com/iJcZfiIZ55 Permalink 12:38 PM – 15 Jan 2019

@alexandersquats This is textbook Lindy! https://twitter.com/Arch_Revival_/status/1085153000421756929   Permalink 10:30 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Which shows the circularity of IQ scores. Psychometrics is a scam, which shows in so many respects. pic.twitter.com/mIy3F9iVzf Permalink 10:19 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@FattestFatTony I ain’t “smart” enough to know what intelligence is, but I been around enough suckers to know what it ain’t. #ViaNegativa https://twitter.com/PersuasionRisng/status/1085206671612436480   Permalink 10:07 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Let’s start with an elementary QUIZ that the psychologists (& the mountebanks s.a. @charlesmurray) seem to be implicitly flunking. pic.twitter.com/KzxNoh8FTe Permalink 9:41 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@Gavelascos @nntaleb please tweet something about this pic.twitter.com/Ojorg97g8z Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@PersuasionRisng I’d point out that the top 25% of janitors score higher IQ than the bottom 25% of college professors. Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I’ve called people “imbeciles” for vastly more intelligent remarks. Permalink 7:17 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb CIRCULARITY If MDs and academics tend to have a “IQ” slightly informative (higher on a noisy average), it is largely because to get into schools you need to score on a test similar to “IQ”. Probability and statistics confuse the psychologist and other fools. https://twitter.com/jonathanwilson/status/1085190318662725632   Permalink 7:14 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s @ericsachsPhD was involved in getting “scientists” to sign studies ghostwritten by Monsanto. Documents show he gave marching orders to discredit our precautionary principle paper. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/Thibault_Lec/status/1085157467393327106   Permalink 5:32 AM – 15 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Sir Michael Atiyyah’s family and the Roman emperor Alexander Severus come from the same village in North Lebanon. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1084053084014370817   Permalink 2:05 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@normonics NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT @nature wtf is this pic.twitter.com/jq5IHukGY2 Permalink 1:35 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You cannot be more stupid than that. Monsanto (via its active shills) managed to make people believe SCIENCE = SCIENTISM Our paper(s) on precaution under dimensionality: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/antonioregalado/status/1084864808963444737   Permalink 12:11 PM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb These are the idiotic analogies to avoid: running speed is unidimensional in a fixed environment, intellect has yuuuuuuuge dimensionality in fast moving complex domains. Stop this race/attributes BS. https://twitter.com/darrenknewell/status/1084739524154912769   Permalink 7:42 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@oldlevantine Can’t wait!! The Thirty-Year Genocide: Turkey’s Destruction of Its Christian Minorities, 1… https://www.amazon.com/dp/067491645X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_lajpCb5ETACRM   via @amazon Permalink 5:37 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@Extrachelle Variant of the #Phoenician alphabet https://twitter.com/josh_lipson/status/1084629270436167680   Permalink 4:39 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb There was NO “substantive” correction to the IQ piece. Not even ONE single valid commentary by psychs. Asking Charles Murray for probabilistic points is no different from asking a Lower East Side astrologist to discuss relativistic quantum mechanics. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 3:30 AM – 14 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A friend, yesterday: ME “Long time. How are you doing?” HIM “Busy period. I have a lot to do. How about you?” ME “I am doing a lot, tons of things, because I have nothing to do.” https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1084592176925982720   Permalink 3:48 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@wtgowers James Watson (as in Crick &) has been stripped of certain honours at a NY lab thx to comments about race and intelligence. If you’re worried that he is simply stating uncomfortable truths, this great blog post should reassure you. https://gcbias.org/2018/03/14/polygenic-scores-and-tea-drinking/   Permalink 3:34 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@statwonk It’d be interesting to see this plotted by distance from where the IQ concept was invented. It’s probably just geographic distance between the test makers and takers. Permalink 3:29 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb C- Selects for obedient idiots who don’t get the problem of induction. (from a discussion with @paulboghossian ) pic.twitter.com/p2nGBhadMD Permalink 3:27 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb B- WHY THE ERROR RATE FOR ONE INDIVIDUAL IS YUUUGE pic.twitter.com/kinX6vxVNW Permalink 3:25 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Added 2 additional arguments in the IQ paper- A- WHY NATIONAL IQ IS A FRAUD https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sVoBz1WYvT”>  pic.twitter.com/sVoBz1WYvT Permalink 3:24 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists hope that I did not look at the literature. This, adjusted for padding, is astrology. pic.twitter.com/MsfLjCD0Qn Permalink 12:45 PM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb HEURISTIC: In any profession, when someone becomes rich and/or famous and starts socializing or attending organized gatherings w/the rich & famous & members of the IAND*, you can start counting the time until the big blowup. * International Association of Name Droppers Permalink 10:23 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@timjburrows @nntaleb has a lot to say about this. Averages quoted without variance, precision without confidence interval. List goes on. Worse, even if accompanying data were provided, majority of pop would be none the wiser. Permalink 10:11 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, what kind of magazine is Aeon? Thanks. Permalink 8:34 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 (cont, 2 ) Also learned that “PhD” researchers who BS about “IQ” (and RACE) don’t get that if IQ correlates to performance at 50% (the beeeeeesssst of cases), that it can only explain less than 16.7% of said performance. Idiots. Permalink 7:30 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 (cont) Also learned that “PhD” researchers who BS w/buzzwords don’t understand basic inference; the notion of variance. Worse, race idiots think that if a country has “IQ”=82 (assuming “IQ” is real), that ALL will have IQ=82. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082713050837336065   Permalink 7:26 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018 Learned that psychologist involved in “IQ” fail to understand very basic notions they are using. Such as correlations. Not talking about higher dimensions “g”, nonlinear correlations, etc. Not talking abt quacks like Molyneux, but academic psychs. pic.twitter.com/aVQoCvh33H Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@Extrachelle They, all, deadlifted too. You can see it in their eyes. pic.twitter.com/YuXTSKK3vO Permalink 5:56 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Voila: a problem with PCAs that psychologists are not getting. Science is hard. #fooledbyrandomness https://twitter.com/Zusehrverkuerzt/status/1084388417474056192   Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- WHAT I LEARNED IN 2018 Learned from @Mangan150 that seed oil (Not #Lindy) is actually only tested in theory, & maybe be v. inflammatory. (Went nuts yesterday on Air France when I saw the smallprint for the “olive oil/balsamic” small bottle: 38% olive/37% sunflower.) Permalink 1:12 PM – 12 Jan 2019

@ClarkeMicah You don’t *use* the scientific method if you invent ailments and claim diagnoses on the basis of unfalsifiable subjective guesswork. https://twitter.com/nancydoylepsych/status/1084173391811276800   Permalink 11:55 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb What I learned in 2018: Learned from @Safaitic that written language often had nothing to do with spoken languages. The former later makes its way via the minority rule. It is conceivable that Jesus spoke a Galilean dialect not Aramaic, but used Aramaic for harangues. Permalink 7:51 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “left” is just as owned by weapon makers as the “right”. https://spectator.us/left-tulsi-gabbard/   Permalink 5:20 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb With @EmanuelDerman @jim_gatheral pic.twitter.com/yeLuVbRRij Permalink 3:45 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Sir Michael Atiyyah, British/GrecoPhoenician (Greek-Orthodox from North Lebanon), most decorated mathematician, charming man, RIP. Permalink 3:42 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I see some IQ “holes” in research. Please help if you are familiar with literature 1) Has anyone measured within individuals IQ test variance (you take the test, get different score) ? 2) Has anyone controlled for Chinese characters reading (as training for IQ tests)? Permalink 2:28 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Molyneux-Quack has same explanation for Mesopotamia that Nazis & Aryan supremacists gave for the decline of Modern Greeks: “They are different people” (illegal immigration +cousin marriages). Until came science; ancient DNA shows it’s just not true. https://twitter.com/mgpolitis/status/1084026383133741056   Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “cousin marriage” (CM) ad hoc to explain the degradation of Mesopotamia is crackpot: – Parsis, the MOST successful community ever (only~50k) encourage CM – Lebanese Greek Orth ban it, not Maronites & no differential in success – Was practice common earlier? (ergodicity) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082621586044264448   Permalink 1:09 AM – 12 Jan 2019

@Mangan150 The fakest of fake news. How anyone believes this is beyond me. Skipping breakfast even once a week might increase risk of type 2 diabetes https://abcn.ws/2AgRhTe   Permalink 7:32 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@EHSANI22 Genghis Khan valued Loyalty so highly that when when followers of his chief rival Jamukha handed him, rather than reward the men he had them all executed in front of the leader they had betrayed. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@FattestFatTony Looking for enemies is a suckers game but letting them find you is the oldest free marketing known to man… #Lindy Permalink 3:25 PM – 11 Jan 2019

@thackerpd 1/6 Emails shows #Monsanto orchestrated a behind the scenes retraction of Seralini’s paper on #GMOs. David Saltimiras w/ #Monsanto started “the last rites of Seralini” with an email to Sir Colin Berry. @NaomiOreskes @sejorg @TimothyAWise @industrydocs @sfoucart @fastlerner pic.twitter.com/cHnFBz9Jgu Permalink 4:55 AM – 11 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Pasquale, you are a professional probabilist and statistician. You are a scholar. Molyneux is a crank. Please do not engage him. Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychology. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1083354728023707648   Permalink 9:30 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@yaneerbaryam How can there be enough skin in the game to stop this? @nntaleb https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/former-ceo-pleads-guilty-to-fentanyl-spray-kickback-scheme/2019/01/09/f25d3cea-1452-11e9-ab79-30cd4f7926f2_story.html   Permalink 7:26 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #daoofcapital #SunTzu #TheArtofWar pic.twitter.com/dY9BogrsWo Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@thackerpd How did #Monsanto try to spin the carcinogenicity of #glyphosate and attack @IARCWHO? Documents show they hired a PR firm to plant op-eds targeting Washington Post & USA Today https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Benbrook-expert-report-November-2018.pdf   @NaomiOreskes @NaomiStarkman @TimothyAWise @industrydocs @sfoucart @fastlerner ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/A573FTfAr1″>  pic.twitter.com/A573FTfAr1 Permalink 4:54 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The “Daf Yomi” or occasional Daf is the best way to learn …Eastern Aramaic. And there is no better way than to listen to a Syrian Rabbi such as rabbi David Mansour. https://twitter.com/JYuter/status/1083327159752671232   Permalink 3:41 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb After 4 days of diluvial rain from angry Zeus, Baal & other gods, stuck at home running Monte Carlo genetics simulations while eating stuffed grape leaves and busting IQ and race idiots on Twitter, finally the storm ended … and a lot of snow covering Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/0vWKtHNBDV Permalink 2:12 AM – 10 Jan 2019

@nntaleb *Footnote: clearly I don’t insult not ALL psychologists, just those who put people & races in”idiot” IQ boxes or similar things…) Permalink 12:59 PM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists use “IQ” to politely put people & entire races in boxes with the label “idiots”, and stick them there for a lifetime. They ruin people’s careers and potentials. Politely. I call psychologists (& IQ mountebanks) idiots to their face. Not politely. Permalink 5:23 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This Q is the fraudulent type psychologists give you. You NEVER interview someone w/o some background credentials w/far more information than IQ, a measure made by low “I” psychologists. In the REAL WORLD there is something called a CV! https://twitter.com/rammbling/status/1082986472834138112   Permalink 5:13 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NEXT BS PSYCHOLOGY BUSTING project: Count how many of these “biases” are errors or we have the wrong model. E.g. “sunk cost” not an error if you use P/L as info from environment. Heuristic in #SkininTheGame: if not present in Erasmus, it doesn’t exist Remember Psych is BS #Lindy pic.twitter.com/Iv6eRtNLT4 Permalink 3:42 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb They designed my technical book cover How to Design a Great Book Cover by @TuckerMax https://link.medium.com/zhZGp7uSkT   Permalink 3:26 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Typo 16.67% pic.twitter.com/nau8cTHdy0 Permalink 2:39 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Version 2: turns out that the IQ story is vastly worse than I initially thought. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1eIasgDkqs”>  pic.twitter.com/1eIasgDkqs Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ FACTS The highest correlation IQ to “performance” (with yuuuge massaging) is .5 [not eliminating the resemblance between said performance and test] The pick up is only 13% Psychologists are kluuuueless about some basics. pic.twitter.com/ZOR9igEEDp Permalink 12:07 AM – 9 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (very very simple) IQ is said to correlate at .5 with performance. You hire an employee with above average IQ. What is the probability of above average performance? What is the probability if there were 0 correlation with performance? Assume Normal distr. Permalink 10:57 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb To understand Wittgenstein’s ruler: Any MEASURE of IQ or intellectual abilities or anything related to intellect that does not give #Molyneux a score in the bottom 8% of the population is patently a wrong measure. pic.twitter.com/gGtokyl2Fu Permalink 4:04 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@TeslaAircraft This is exactly @nntaleb’s dictatorship of the small minority (which I think is great in this case). We only stay at hotels with chargers, but people without EVs don’t care if the hotel has one or not. This phenomenon accelerates adoption. @elonmusk https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   https://twitter.com/thehoff525/status/1082328699737960449   Permalink 2:05 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is actually much worse when you consider that Meds were extensions of Caucasus/Persia/Anatolia; Greeks were much much ethnically closer to Persians, Assyrians & Phoenicians than to “Europeans” as the demarcation is fake. https://twitter.com/GhostVirusX/status/1082756180814979072   Permalink 1:54 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, if one of the variables is fat tailed… Always a problem when pple use mechanistic regressions without knowing probability. Further, THERE IS NO BASIS FOR NATIONAL IQ. Even if there were differences in averages, VARIANCE swamps the local information. Science is hard pic.twitter.com/viK5meA1yf Permalink 12:51 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Clint Eastwood w jeddé Saliba Skandar l mesh3ir by @jadabdala https://link.medium.com/gl2C152PjT   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Which brings us to a statistical Quiz. What is the distribution of the regression slope? @GarettJones I will be nice to you because you deadlift. But you need to understand the ERROR rate of a regression slope. Otherwise, NO regression. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/VKem5V6lWm Permalink 12:13 PM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb STATISTICAL BUSTING TRAINING 101 How many data points (sampled within the same data) do you need to add to change the slope from positive to negative? @GarettJones, this is no longer called a regression. This is called intellectual fraud. pic.twitter.com/PcjBqRVKKd Permalink 10:58 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Time to make public what we’ve been laughing quietly about. We figured out the salaries of some of the bitter IQ psychologists in this debate (public records from state U). They earn less than NY Uber drivers. https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1076933024439250945   Permalink 10:52 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “The four most influential moderns: Darwin, Marx, Freud, and (the productive) Einstein were scholars but not academics. It has always been hard to do genuine – and no perishable – work within institutions” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Serious question. Have you ever done a regression before? Permalink 10:14 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@The_Cyrenian THIS IS OFFICIALLY MY FAVOURITE TWEET OF ALL TIME. There is nothing more beautiful, nothing more satisfying, than seeing a real intellectual expose the fake-intellectual and closet-racist that is Stefan Molyneux. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082607889309683713   Permalink 10:13 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb COUNTRY IQ This may not give you much information (nonhomogeneous migration patterns) but it certainly tells you that “country IQ” and genetics is a scam. pic.twitter.com/JLqxqWF0Hu Permalink 9:11 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOW an intelligent question. Cultural changes, mostly accelerated in past 200 y. https://twitter.com/alanizBTC/status/1082630721779523586   Permalink 5:33 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1) No, it was not Ghengis Khan who sacked Baghdad but his grandson Holagho 2) That they killed all the locals is fiction (from balance X vs Y chr) 3) Only someone like PrimatebrainedMolyneux can believe 1)Asian IQ genetic superiority & 2) degradation in IQ from male replacement Permalink 5:18 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I do not debate charlatans. I EXPOSE them to others. Permalink 4:55 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This inbreading/cousin marriage theory is another crackpot by IQ-genes-race pple who NEED to find genetic (not cultural) degradation. First effect of inbreeding is systematic diseases. & you see MORE among Ashkenazis so stop the IQ link & crank-science. https://twitter.com/Titus_Pullo55/status/1082620263697661952   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Do you fucking think I am stupid enough to not check Babylonian genetics? Permalink 4:37 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame dictates not talking about an idea (such as #SkinintheGame) shallowly, w/o a deep investment, here is my recitation of Hammurabi’s code in ancient Babylonian (Akkadian) w/proper Semitic gutturals. Yes, I know enough Babylonian to argue Molyneux is a fraud in it. pic.twitter.com/CYCHTrhS1p Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Mesopotamia Invented Metallurgy, Agriculture, Writing, Sailing, theWheel, Chemisty, Pharma, Astronomy, LAW,(co)algebra, Algor, Calendar, Maps, Metrics… Maintained techno superiority for 4600/5000y of history. So fraudster @stefanmolyneux now arbiter of their inferior “IQ”. pic.twitter.com/uGxSiIlJ0q Permalink 4:00 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychology. https://twitter.com/chsommers/status/1082397016821501953   Permalink 2:03 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The ONLY test of intelligence that counts is to see if the person detects Wittgenstein’s ruler situations: 1) When you use a ruler to measure the table, you are also using the table to measure the ruler. 2) The more unexpected the measurement, the more you apply W’s ruler. Permalink 12:51 AM – 8 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild Nassim Taleb’s recent attack on psychology and IQ “science” emerged too late for me to work into this essay, but it could be easily incorporated. If his campaign surprised you, politically or intellectually, maybe this will help. https://www.firstthings.com/article/2019/02/taleb-the-philosopher   Permalink 4:29 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 6) But the grand doyen of Statistical BS Busting is the great @spyrosmakrid who started in the 1980s! He is the M in the M-competitions. He was 10y early figuring out the scam w/hypertension treatment. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1081434668476612608   Permalink 3:36 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5) BS Busting by probability people seems to have become a specialty. We now have an army! https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1082390431344852992   Permalink 3:20 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4) @HarryDCrane is making evidence a better place. LEARN FROM HIM. Remember that there is no scientific “evidence” w/o statistical significance. Meanwhile, I am focusing on the Fat Tails aspect as it mushrooms the problem of naive & pseudo-empiricism. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1082079005505916933   Permalink 2:34 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@Wurux @nntaleb https://twitter.com/UnwobblingPivot/status/1081632438663761920   Permalink 1:28 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb “European” is meaningless a genetic term. Western Eurasia is the correct one. Permalink 1:13 PM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb First meeting of the localist society for the promotion of the Neo-Canaanite language in a Starbucks near Byblos. Thank you everyone for the spontaneous gathering! pic.twitter.com/HlCrlSfxdi Permalink 8:57 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3) My problem is with charlatans such as @michaelshermer with their promotion of “empirical evidence” in the name of “science” –not aware of spurious correlations, exactly the opposite of statistical inference. They argue from “facts” based on above spuriousness. Permalink 8:42 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @AOC @ronpaul #paygo #paytoday #freelemonade pic.twitter.com/Fa6zGnRphY Permalink 5:33 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wrong to say 1300 y ago. Lebanon spent 500 y under Ottomans who maintained most aspects of Byzantine Empire. They kept ethnicities separate, under self administration (Millet system), so the Rum Millet (i.e. “Roman”) were same citizenship: Greece, Anatolia, Romania, East Med. Permalink 2:43 AM – 7 Jan 2019

@coryklippsten The last two weeks of his anti-IQ push have been primarily about ending the practice of using the tests for anything OTHER than its original purpose, which was to identify people with low intelligence. The correlation between IQ and success disappears above 100. Permalink 5:36 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@normonics This guy @sapinker did not address the critique of NNT because he probably does not understand it. But it is straightforward statistics: 1) interarrival times are too long to make any strong claims and 2) a stationary distribution with alpha implying NO MEAN best explain the data https://twitter.com/52_insights/status/1081910305477808128   Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here I explain. It’s not that correlation is not causation, but that correlation is not correlation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 4:15 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Let me give the most concentrated lecture about statistics/Data Science. Statistics is about avoiding the mistake below. The rest is (more or less complicated) footnotes. pic.twitter.com/xLYPE6pcAf Permalink 3:57 PM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness, she took communion there, which is beyond mere attendance. On paper, the Greek-Orthodox church technically bans us from taking communion in any other church. But the rule is not enforced and most people don’t know about it. Permalink 11:37 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Hilaaaarious! Exactly as predicted. Within HOURS. You can play a BS vendor like a violin. pic.twitter.com/vewi6O2igd Permalink 11:31 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@BLebnene Sorry for the back and forth. We have final settled for a meet up with @nntaleb tomorrow Monday, January 7, 2019. The meeting will be held in Jbeil (Byblos.) We will confirm the venue shortly; but it will be somewhere near the old souk. (New Yorker Cup for example) Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exaaaaaaaactly as predicted by previous 2 tweets in thread! Only half a day later. You block a psychologist or some similar small time BS vendor, they call you arrogant/egomaniac and will make all the mistakes in the book. Which BS vendor should I tick-off next? pic.twitter.com/O00CFDEbFo Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Salafis managed to get a Sunni Muslim Lebanese woman politician to apologize for attending church service, something that has been part of the fabric of Lebanese society. Result of Saudi funding of intolerance over the past 50y. Will happen in the West. pic.twitter.com/6hs5jhZ7K3 Permalink 10:20 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I think Pinker survives on statistical ignorance. Nothing else. https://twitter.com/jacyreese/status/1081950190972604416   Permalink 8:48 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@semacks In which Pinker completely ignores that @nntaleb published a paper that shatters the entire “violence is in decline” thesis and waves his hands about black swans more generally. Taleb’s paper actually covered the substance of Pinker’s argument: https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=851091091009083095089127115110075099034023058067019062072066004100009103081023097123034016097101060099003106115098003095116092026058012038004029004118103111073028059062024121067073124072085091092069010121104097107075021088001008095027011086119103085&EXT=pdf   https://twitter.com/52_insights/status/1081910305477808128   Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@Spfannenschmidt f(x) is not x Primary lesson from #RWRI Permalink 6:18 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why one needs an IQ test by some unintelligent rent-seeking psychologist to see if one is good at math when mathematical abilities are DIRECTLY and rapidly observable. https://twitter.com/zach_pinto/status/1081739672936693760   Permalink 6:14 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 debate told Mountebank @CharlesMurray that in France, Protestants & Jews were ~1% of population, had ~ share of Nobels & wealth. Are French Protestants a different race? Minorities everywhere fare disproportionately well. Disentangling genes from culture impossible. Permalink 5:00 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That fraud Molyneux made similar racist remarks linking me to the IQ of a presumed “ethnicity”. Alt-Right pple tend to suffer from clinically low levels of intelligence. Incidentally, for these cranks obsessing over race-IQ, East Med genetics haven’t changed since the Bronze age pic.twitter.com/qoSHaeRjJa Permalink 4:42 AM – 6 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Please don’t spread the information. Permalink 6:59 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It showed 84½ . Any problem with that? Permalink 6:47 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb When I went to finance, I discovered that those who *tawk* about money were the ones who didn’t have it, couldn’t make it, or wanted a lot more but couldn’t get it. Same problem with IQ. Those who insist on measuring IQ are … the most stupid. Permalink 6:17 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb His “country IQ” (U=used for racemongering) comes from education (test scores), which tends to FOLLOW not CAUSE devlpment Mr @GarettJones did you look at the dynamics? Countries like Korea/Switzerland had low literacy/education, got rich, THEN high education… see #Antifragile https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1081697009155768320   Permalink 5:55 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Income is not a measure of performance. But it is the LEAST nonsensical for analysis where things wash out. Plus I can use $5 to buy a meal. You cannot “eat” IQ points, SAT points, or vague academic notions such as prestige, rank, had picture taken with the Queen, etc. https://twitter.com/andrewronmo/status/1081714204090875904   Permalink 4:59 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Even when there is correlation between IQ and performance, it is SWAMPED by noise. Is it me or that psychologists have NO notion of noise? pic.twitter.com/pvENuD8oD8 Permalink 4:46 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Fat Tony Quotient = Intelligence Permalink 3:37 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb National average IQ is BS Permalink 3:27 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is called Intelligence. https://twitter.com/steveroh/status/1081691743576342528   Permalink 3:21 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ may correlate (noisily) to Income because of the circularity/employee effect. But it does not correlate to wealth. What’s in a name? “I” should be removed. PsycholobSers have the wrong definition of IQ. Permalink 3:20 PM – 5 Jan 2019

@NonMeek The first #Offshorecomic linked to @nntaleb’s [ https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39  ] ist fertig. Stay tuned for more. #IQ is for obedient losers [part 1 of x]. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sFnlgFVHHY”>  pic.twitter.com/sFnlgFVHHY Permalink 10:02 AM – 5 Jan 2019

@nntaleb FRIDAY QUIZ (rephrased for clarity) pic.twitter.com/kSb9AnykLY Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb When someone refers to psychology “results” for backup, ask: what is the SINGLE significant result psychologists have discovered that is both correct and not well known (and used) by ancients, used car salespeople, magicians, & swindlers. Ignore psychologists. #Lindy. Permalink 9:53 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Founders of statistical “science” were mathematicians (probability). They understood the properties (& conditions) for tools they designed. But users of stats are clueless parrots blabbering words like “correlation”. NEVER teach statistics to those who don’t know probability. Permalink 6:11 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this fellow @DegenRolf that all these contradictions are telling us is that variance of results from the IQ measure increases with IQ. Not a good thing. Please explain it slowly to him. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1081118653737824256   Permalink 5:33 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Years ago I waged a war against “Value at Risk”, an equally bogus measurement; like IQ, had a bunch of nerds clinging to it because “we have nothing better”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=78&v=6QiiFSOrJhQ   Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Yes, indeed, systematically getting rid of people by blocking/muting. https://twitter.com/angiejchelala/status/1081169805355483137   Permalink 5:01 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That’s why social science failed to get convexity/#Antifragility (or something as elementary as Jensen’s Inequality). https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1080800546813034499   Permalink 4:54 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@nntaleb First blunder of 2019: Bought a Medieval Byzantine bio of Saint Symeon the Theologian thinking it was Saint Symeon the Stylite στυλίτης. Took me a while to realize it. pic.twitter.com/A7JSjcZNsE Permalink 3:59 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@YiannisArch This is the dorkiest response I’ve ever read. All praise king Taleb @nntaleb. And welcome to all his new fans who are surprised to see *high IQ* academics unable to understand a via negativa argument. https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1080978692250034176   Permalink 2:02 AM – 4 Jan 2019

@mrraoofi @nntaleb has a talent in procuring enmity of charlatans and/or the ignorant. But I had never seen so much negative reaction to his previous works as to the present one about IQ. Everybody seems to be screaming and crying. Well-done sir! Permalink 10:51 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Friends, can someone find in this promo by propagandist @SteveStuWill info: – How many of these 1% fared “well” compared to 2%, 3%, .1%, etc? – Variance for 1% compared to other brackets – Any HARD correlation (not words) s.a. $ income? Ευχαριστώ πολύ! https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1080856310063788032   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@FamedCelebrity I think the reason people get so angry over the IQ (test score) debate is akin to the heat in evolution arguments. That is, they are not interested in the subject matter per se, but in its supposed implications. Permalink 4:48 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have the illusion that I am writing this critique of IQ for them. No. Never argue theology w/a Salafi Sheikh. Psychologists are the losers in & out of campus. I am writing to expose the lack of rigor of these “metrics” to “intelligent” scientists & Fat Tonies. Permalink 2:40 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The best map fallacy in The Technical Incerto, Vol 2. Geoff Miller is clueless. pic.twitter.com/bs4oqMRTVp Permalink 2:22 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Replaced the thread with this article https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 1:39 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@AhsanDeliri I find it amusing to see that @nntaleb took down the IQ Industrial complex not by defining what it is, but simply highlighting what it isn’t. It isn’t science, or predictive. Stripped of all that, Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare. Permalink 1:30 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Hello @StuartJRitchie, can you answer the following? Feel free to ask the geniuses in psychometrics. IQ below 100 correlates at 90% with performance IQ above 100 correlates at 10% with performance What’s the correlation IQ to performance? Permalink 1:21 PM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/jA5Nhgn1Xn Permalink 9:40 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/eyBiiUhL5g Permalink 8:14 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb HINT: partial correlation includes a statement about the mean. (No psycholophaster-psychometrician saw something that elementary) pic.twitter.com/1zmoUX3ylD Permalink 8:11 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Assume to simplify that both IQ and performance are Gaussian. Permalink 5:22 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A Quiz for IQ “researchers”. Something elementary. pic.twitter.com/tqhdt9CDDU Permalink 5:04 AM – 3 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I don’t randomly call people “imbeciles” publicly. Only when they claim “someone doesn’t know what he is talking about ” when it turns out that they don’t know what THEY are talking abt. Singal is done. He got pretty much everything wrong, from conscientiousness to correlation pic.twitter.com/DsKZmpl3Ro Permalink 3:09 PM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 12- Year in Review Someone got my paper on forecasing and vs the “methods” of @NateSilver538. I will explain the paper in a Youtube minimooc. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 2:30 PM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb (To echo Haldane, one ounce of correct algebra is worth more than a century of verbalistic statisticopsycholophastering). https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Can you go give unsollicited advice to someone else who care about your opinion? Permalink 7:25 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Need to add “not the same ting”, x vs f(x) https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1080451498067271680   Permalink 5:17 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Starting 2019 with a paper in … genetics I worked on while arguing with the IQ idiots. pic.twitter.com/PvZ90fu6Yu Permalink 4:58 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Just realized there is list of terms summarizing the INCERTO. Thanks! https://twitter.com/ArturoHerrero/status/1080439849491070976   Permalink 4:55 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@HectorIlias Cicero on IYIs and Romans vs Greeks. I’m enjoying the read a lot thanks to having read @nntaleb’s INCERTO before. pic.twitter.com/Kc9gGAgCP3 Permalink 4:00 AM – 2 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Still can’t get it. It DOES NOT “measure” abilities. https://twitter.com/miketranchina/status/1080277104774635520   Permalink 5:39 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I just published https://medium.com/@nntaleb/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NEVER talk about correlation 1) if you are a psychologist [they are klueless] 2) when there is nonlinearity such as IQ and performance. You can have 80% correlation with “performance” when it is 0 for positive performance, & high for negative. Compare to “SAT” and see the BS. pic.twitter.com/E7fQ9jL2iM Permalink 1:04 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb No. https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1080195496407388165   Permalink 12:57 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man Happy New Year! #blackswanman #theblackswanman #newyearsresolution #fightthefed #jiujitsu #daoofcapital #antifragile pic.twitter.com/0Bm9t7K1Ah Permalink 12:51 PM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Be-strayné (Happy New Year in Lebanese) Odds are, from its pronunciation, it came from *Estreine*, medieval French. As I cannot find it in Sabir and Med Lingua Franca, high probability it came from the Crusaders. @QifaNabki @PhDniX @Safaitic pic.twitter.com/LvoZEfObSl Permalink 7:23 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb No, “IQ” tests aren’t even close to what intelligence means, even excluding decision-making (wisdom). https://twitter.com/nietzsches_tash/status/1080085347680149505   Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Grateful for 2018. Graduated (again), grew my library and spent quality time thinking about risk taking. The peak has been the incredible #RWRI week, led by @nntaleb, #raphaeldouadi and @financequant. To all my RWRI friends, I wish you a year of convex optionalities Permalink 3:09 AM – 1 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Happy 2019 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you highly deserve but were too humble, too thoughtful, and too realistic to dare to wish for it. Permalink 5:40 PM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- Year in Review 2018: Started replying to intrusive, lenghty & boring emails in Italian, especially when the sender is not Italian. 2019: Will try Greek or Latin. Permalink 1:32 PM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I will be even more intransigent. Repeating thrice. Ciao https://twitter.com/jonhaidt/status/1079826085934714881   Permalink 11:47 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@vidythatte If you’re a fan of @nntaleb & his tweets (like me) here are his top tweets from 2018 https://www.tweet-rewind.com/nntaleb.html   Permalink 10:56 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can understand someone saying “listen, I love strangers but I am more comfortable w/my nationality, shared values” (homophily) or “neighbors get along better than rommates” (fractal localism). But making “others” genetically “inferior” using IQ “science” is quite sinister. Permalink 10:53 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL problem solved Bi-Strayné in Lebanese from: bi-Strenua or Strenia, Roman a goddess of the new year https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1079786887273959424   Permalink 9:14 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@paulportesi This is perfect. This is so funny. Nassim’s sense of humor is great. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079585825506115585   Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@Safaitic Thanks you! There is a consensus that by the 10th century the language of Arabic poetry (the qasidah) was far removed from virtually all vernaculars. Mutanabbi certainly composed in an Arabic with the vocalizations in your post but he probably didn’t grow up speaking that way. Permalink 6:42 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@NonMeek This year’s final #Offshorecomic. A tribute to the best Tweetstorm ever @nntaleb vs the journo. #IQ #success Happy new year, y’all! For more visit http://www.offshorecomic.com   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cE8Etk2XhX”>  pic.twitter.com/cE8Etk2XhX Permalink 6:05 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb F***king hypocrite; Molyneux @StefanMolyneux thinks he can manage to keep posting strings showing lower “IQ” for Africans + heritability of IQ, catering to a Nordist supremacist following… …yet claim this is not racist so he doesn’t get banned from social media. Hypocrite. pic.twitter.com/LajdHGUepl Permalink 5:44 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intelligent “current IQ” test is one that maximum number of successful pple (Gell-Mann, Feynman, Buffett, plumbers happy w/their lives, Musk, Umb. Eco) ace, & maximum number of unsucessful ones (bureaucrats, journalists, pple in jail) flunk, revised as environment changes. Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Dec 2018

@rockwell_n2 I believe Taleb’s point is that we don’t understand the world well enough to define intelligence. What seemed intelligent in the year *blank* seemed incredibly unintelligent years later. Permalink 11:10 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain how the psycholophasters got the IQ of Goethe, Einstein? By retro-testing? And stats for IQ of math/physicists? Selfreporting bias? I don’t know one mathematician who knows his/her IQ. Only IQ of physicist we know is Feynman’s (126 as he fluncked Mensa). Permalink 7:29 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb That was what I tried to convey to that hawker-mountebank Charles Murray @charlesmurray when he wrote his gerrymandering book on how the “West” was great, redefining West as whatever has been recently successful. Permalink 5:25 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb THE SUMMARY “”IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shuffleE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, whi []” #SkininTheGame #Lindy #antifragile #FooledbyRandomness https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1076845397795065856.html   Permalink 4:48 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I find these comparisons by @StefanMolyneux insensitive, silly, and failing basic introspective recursion. Someone from Babylon/Ancient Egypt/The Med/China could have, at some point, made similar comparisons entailing Northern Europeans. Then look what happened after 1600. pic.twitter.com/LJbUCqNwo2 Permalink 4:41 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2018 – thanks to @nntaleb – was a an amazing limit related to both probability and calculus: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2018/06/27/a-fascinating-limit-to-share-with-both-calculus-and-probability-students/  . #math #mathchat Permalink 3:09 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Some overlap with the RWRI program –but much more technical. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 2:23 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An association for losers (of the Birkensock footwear category) whose major skill is scoring on a particular test. https://twitter.com/Connectitecture/status/1079501400281935872   Permalink 2:21 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY du JOUR A question for Maestro @Safaitic: how much of the diacriticals are original to Mutanabbi? Do you accept the idea that poets used a parallel language to the spoken one? https://twitter.com/almotanabby/status/1079489259814506497   Permalink 1:49 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Was it Tversky who said that all they were trying to do is formalize the corpus of used car salespeople. What shd replicate in psychology is what tricksters, illusionists, marketers, advertising pple, jilted lovers & crooks have known forever. #Lindy @ole_b_peters @stanley223 https://twitter.com/Stanley223/status/1079489173621481472   Permalink 1:40 PM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 32- WRAPPING UP – I said psychology was BS because something wrong between 50-100% of the time is the very definition of bul***st (a lie is wrong ~100%). – Selection of traits “tested” by IQ require predictability of future environment. – Will put everything in short article. Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- Year in Review One Tweetstorm countered close to a century of intelligence metrification (“IQ”) by nerds, & thousands of psychologists (& eugenists) who use probabilistic equations without knowing what is behind… One single Tweetstorm. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079239238053490688   Permalink 7:32 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I never made that point. Never linked “IQ” (which I didn’t consider a “measure”) to evolution. I blocked Razib Khan @razibkhan because he claimed there were “flaws” in our GMO risk arguments but could not produce any. https://twitter.com/fitchett_adam/status/1079375852079669249   Permalink 7:24 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@MorrisseyHelena I’m all for more localism and devolved powers to regions & counties. And they are lovely flags! ⁦@Telegraph⁩ pic.twitter.com/zxPcAlgpXo Permalink 4:04 AM – 30 Dec 2018

@imleslahdin I paraphrased everything in Python (using google colaboratory). I might have misunderstood though (I tinkered a lot). Please correct if there is any mistake it’s an open notebook as a github gist (you can edit and run). https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/gist/Nydhal/2bb2831b3713dade324af65a3aabb88a   Permalink 9:06 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 31- Technical point: why the PCA behind the “g” is tooooooootally BS when correlation is not constant. Their math is entertainemnet. And indeed psycholophasters DON’T get it. This is the shape of the proof, more details to fill in. pic.twitter.com/MnLxxB1kMN Permalink 8:54 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why the “g” is BS as correlation is not constant pic.twitter.com/5rs5lFVyku Permalink 8:50 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why I am blocking @sentientist Because of course if you disagree with psychology there is something wrong with you. pic.twitter.com/eW1lsL0v6s Permalink 4:03 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What @cshalizi intuited is in the variation of the PCA for a different realization; this is vastly worse. The PCA version of this https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Severe problem w/psychologists. Deary doesn’t know how PCAs work (elementary misunderstanding of probability). But if you don’t agree with their metric there is something wrong with YOU. Popper called psychs charlatans. When you disagree, there’s something in your childhood… https://twitter.com/sentientist/status/1079107954027057152   Permalink 2:13 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is an example of what the brilliant Cosma @cshalizi intuited behing the failure of “g”. And the SAT is DIRECTLY covered by IQ tests from overlap. A low IQ “correlates” with low SAT, but a low SAT doesn’t “correlate” with low IQ. Now do that with other measures covered by IQ https://twitter.com/IdentityWithin/status/1079120246693416960   Permalink 2:02 PM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb DATA SCIENCE TRICK DU JOUR: How to make a random covariance/correl matrix that is positive definite? pic.twitter.com/rU4n0LBuij Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@normonics People who have learned to think in the RWRI @nntaleb style have uncommon clarity around systemic risk. It is not “difficult”, but generally requires a complete cognitive re-frame. Most unwilling or unable due to prior commitments of identity. Natural for @GuruAnaerobic https://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/1078779929670619137   Permalink 6:15 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A vector of unknown dimensions. If we knew the dimensions we would be able to predict the future. (Popper/Hayek) https://twitter.com/srini_sateesh/status/1079016017672585218   Permalink 6:13 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- Year in Review People stopped giving me the wrong awards, honoris causa, etc., awards by BS vendors to resumé-building BS vendors (asinus asimum fricat). Here is the real thing. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1053256560758218752   Permalink 4:39 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@amconmag Trump “must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture.” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trump-scores-breaks-generals-50-year-war-record-syria-mattis-dunford/   Permalink 4:30 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am allergic to verbalistic Pinker-style talk abt something like “correlation”, “variance” w/o knowing what it REALLY means. Hence EVERY statistical concept needs to be rederived ab ovo. With IQ, 1000s of psychologist so far seem to NOT understand their own statistics! https://twitter.com/blackorwa/status/1078972980997341184   Permalink 4:25 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb How PCAs degrade under Fat Tails. I share code for everything in book. Since then function Random[ ] became RandomVariate[Distribution,{c,r}] pic.twitter.com/ngH1GEMKCG Permalink 3:37 AM – 29 Dec 2018

@nntaleb They use a vertical form of Nestorian Syriac. pic.twitter.com/8rKA128bwn Permalink 6:07 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mongolians write in the Nestorian alphabet, still today. https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1078822762343469056   Permalink 5:32 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I asked a specific question Mr @rjhaier, whether where tweets 17,18, 27, 29, 30, 7, 6, to select a few, correpond to “recycled” old anti-intelligence research, Charlatans talk: “we are aware of the shortcomings”… or “do you have better to offer?” https://twitter.com/rjhaier/status/1078699552515866626   Permalink 3:36 PM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Preparing for a new fall course at NYU @nyutandon called “Data science, Fragility, & Extremes”, Mondays 6-8 PM. About 50% is from my new technical book, 50% themes within Data science. pic.twitter.com/rZ1fd2l9JT Permalink 7:58 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- Year in Review (cont) To be ethical in 2019, do each of the following repeatedly. a- Invite someone who has no friends to lunch b- Make a rent-seeking BS vendor uncomfortable (if you can, really uncomfortable) c- Help someone in needs of funds but is not asking for help Permalink 6:13 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Mr Haier,@rjhaier, “intelligence researcher” Explain where tweets 17,18, 27, 29, 30, 7, 6, to select a few, correpond to “recycled” old anti-intelligence research, if you can of course. https://twitter.com/rjhaier/status/1078339660303163392   Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@MDiPaolaMD Nothing tests real world ambiguous situations with no perfect answer except real world ambiguous situations with no perfect answer Permalink 4:10 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merci Editions Belles Lettres @BellesLettresEd pour ce dictionnaires de françois médiéval! Beaucoup plus riche que le français moderne … et le secret de Fréderic Dard. le dictionnaire est fait…par Takeshi Matsumura, de l’université de… Tokyo. pic.twitter.com/GAw7Ztr4b1 Permalink 3:36 AM – 28 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 30- Traders get it right away: hypothetical P/L from “simulated” strategies don’t count. Performance=actual. “IQ”: What goes in people’s head or reaction to a screen image doesn’t exist (except via negativa). And correlations in psych papers don’t count. https://twitter.com/emcilveen/status/1078475464522563585   Permalink 6:30 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Performance Real world performance https://twitter.com/ramonarobot/status/1078451554129080320   Permalink 4:47 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb IQ shd penalize some perceptional errors. IQ should accommodate perception of nonlinearity to aggregate payoffs: @yaneerbaryam picked it up right away “the mean-field error”, he said. But simplest problem is that measurements are cooked and terms like “correlation” don’t apply. https://twitter.com/davidboxenhorn/status/1078429267472646144   Permalink 3:20 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@HarryDCrane Major misunderstanding of statistics/p-values by scientists & statisticians: even if individuals control error rate exactly and correctly, we’d still have replication crisis. Cliff notes: RSS (.005 proposal) makes no sense, won’t work Long version: see https://youtu.be/vk9H246GrNQ?t=744   https://twitter.com/dougvk/status/1078353813642317824   Permalink 1:18 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1078279012068327424   Permalink 1:15 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 29- A counter by a proponent of IQ w/what “g” offers best: explains ~½ the variance w.r. to academics. No “science” shd boast a measure that fails ~50%! Worse: counting circularity, hacking, the measure shd be wrong ~ 80% of the time! This is … fraud! https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022440518301031?via%3Dihub   Permalink 1:11 PM – 27 Dec 2018

@Stefano6412 Il latino e’ una lingua spietata con chi cerca di vendere aria fritta. Permalink 11:55 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@dittoaway Sorry but that is not how IQ testing works. Trial and error won’t work because you aren’t told the correct answer. Permalink 9:11 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 29- Note Charles Murray, @charlesmurray, is responding to these with series of ad hominem attacks (I mean really ad hominem). I will retaliate by sticking to the science. Permalink 8:33 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Charles Murray, you shd at least have the decency to index the person you are trying to slander: And this is the background about your friend Harris. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967892546461556737   Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 28-CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY A flaw in the attempts to identify “intelligence” genes. You can get monogenic traits, not polygenic (note: additive monogenic used in animal breeding is NOT polygenic). The problem to some extent affect the “g” in IQ studies as it is multifactorial. pic.twitter.com/87weAlkplt Permalink 8:01 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #YellowVests #localism #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/IFU6wXcdx8 Permalink 5:18 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Isaac Levi, philosopher and probabilist, intellectual giant, RIP Few people in the past 2000 years went as deep into probability as you did. It was greatest luck to have met you. Ad vitam aeternam. pic.twitter.com/2iuU6jAuiC Permalink 4:56 AM – 27 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Machine Learning and Fat Tails Transcribed my M4 lecktchur @spyrosmakrid: the new nonlinear regression more effective than the old one pic.twitter.com/9JYQEzwqal Permalink 1:19 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As Karl Popper said about psychoanalysis they always come up for an explanation for failure, then ad-hoc the crap out of it. Or blame you for not knowing psychology or having narcissistic tendencies or problems with your mother. Permalink 12:56 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can always leave psychology and get a real job. Permalink 12:42 PM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 27- Technical note I omitted: If IQ is Gaussian *by construction* & if performance is fat tailed, then either correlation betw IQ & performance doesn’t exist or is uninformational. It will show a finite number *in sample* but doesn’t exist statistically. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 11:56 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 26- I mute/block all pple comparing IQ to a physical measure s.a. height of basketball players. IQ as presented is NOT a measure. Reminiscent of risk charlatans insisting on selling “value at risk” & RiskMetrics saying “it’s the best measure”. Metrics need to have properties. Permalink 10:29 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an asymmetry that indicates most people who believe in IQ as a measure have a low IQ’ (some “real” intelligence metric). https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1077991832741601280   Permalink 10:22 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@ddelruss Ethically (per Taleb) observing a wrong and doing nothing is to perpetuate it (I forget which book, probably SITG). So when we observe misuse of metrics, broken models, dishonest arguments, etc, we are obligated to identify them. It’s ethics, not emotion – he’s not miffed. Permalink 8:12 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 25- For IQ idiots too slow: -If a 70 IQ is certain to fail but a 150 IQ has a significant probability of NOT succeeding, the ASYMMETRY has SEVERE statistical conseq. & “correlation” is BS term. -If variance is lower at some states & higher at others,”Bell Curve” is an illusion. Permalink 7:14 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan Man told you, Donaldo, that if you own the stock market on the way up, you will also own it on the way down. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1050766705667047426   Permalink 6:21 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I deleted my tweets ag. @davidgraeber (the only tweets I’ve deleted in past years since autodelete). I wanted to convey a strong message, prevent arbitrary petitions (having myself been the victim of a Monsanto initiated petition), not weaken him. Permalink 4:41 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 24- Note 2: “IQ selects for pattern recognition, essential for functioning in modern society”. Unfiltered pattern recognition makes you #FooledbyRandomness, to overnarrate, see false positives. Economics PhDs blow up in business. “IQ” good for @davidgraeber’s “BS jobs” Permalink 4:29 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nickpahountis pic.twitter.com/4bRHfCjgsv Permalink 3:53 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@GhassanDahhan IQ tests are very similar to how psychologists measure “intelligence” of dogs. This is based on their obedience to humans and how fast they follow instructions. Therefore border collies are seen as the “smartest”, while in fact they’re the most servile IYI’s of all dogs. Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 23- Note 1: Why is Intelligence = (long term) survival? Because convexity, missed by IQ tests. You want to make those mistakes with small consequences NOT those with large ones. Academics ~ always focus on frequency of error not magnitude. Too Gaussianized. See #antifragile Permalink 7:51 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@warehouseninja read https://opinion.inquirer.net/118414/blame-passing   and was quickly reminded of @nntaleb’s #SITG “the government would keep tabs on economists’ inflation and economic growth forecasts next year to make them accountable for their projections, which consumers and businesses use in making decisions.” Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 22- This tweet storm irritated many: 1) Charlatans with something to sell: without IQ & other *testing* psychologists have little to sell society; there is a vested interest in hacking/massaging the stats & defending the products. 2) Pple who want some races to be inferior. Permalink 7:00 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If you look at my p-haking above all the numbers by the fellow are upper bound -add category selection & the story is grim. Discount the story by >½. “If IQ isn’t a valid concept, no concept in psychology is valid.” Sorry but psychology is largely bust. https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1057962295999885312   Permalink 3:30 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 20- This Tweet storm has NO psychological references: simply, the field is bust. So far ~ 50% of the research DOES NOT replicate, & papers that do have weaker effect. Not counting poor transfer to reality. How P values often fraudulent: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Same for g factor Permalink 1:36 PM – 25 Dec 2018

@HarryDCrane The best/only place to learn prob/stat is “on the street”. Concepts that are second nature in the wild become convoluted in the classroom (p-value, confidence level). https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1077611993526194176   Permalink 9:55 AM – 25 Dec 2018