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Saudi Arabia, IQ, U.S. Academia, David Graeber, TRUE WEALTH, Harari, Nate Silver,@BallouxFrancois, #RWRI 14 | Twitter

Taleb, le penseur qui va changer votre vie (pdf)

We discuss 1) the errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics, why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks, 2) how evidence based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks, 3) the risks of morbidity must be accounted for 4) how the dangers of vaccines do not scale.

@nntaleb What’s the betting market for Saudi Arabia before Nov 1? Permalink 2020-09-11 21:58:13

@nntaleb Beirut Airport. 100% go through PCR testing before entering, on top of the need to produce a 72h test. I believe that overactive testing (even if high error rate) + masks + constraining superspreaders effectively allow you to keep functioning. Cheaper than lockdowns. Permalink 2020-09-11 19:50:11

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew then). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:44:41

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew than). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:41:40

@nntaleb Fuck, no. This is fake credentials to het benefits. Permalink 2020-09-11 17:40:19

@nntaleb En route to the Phoenician coast. I am told that this may prevent jet lag. Permalink 2020-09-11 14:54:44

@nntaleb 2/ Yes, nitpickers & other idiots, such a filter will fail to select people who got recently infected. But the point is not abt individuals, but the system. All you need is the growth rate to collapse. Fewer pple infected ➜ fewer pple infected ➜ Fewer Permalink 2020-09-11 09:53:28

@nntaleb CHROMOCLASSIFICATION is absurd, infused with political motivations & exploited by groups leeching on the historical suffering of a certain group. Instead use “historically disfavored groups”. Americans from Indian origin have the highest income, shd be excluded. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:44:56

@nntaleb On a transatlantic flight: every passenger & crew member must be COVID negative (w/72h test validity). Overactive testing is the solution. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:38:21

@nntaleb Ahla!!!! Permalink 2020-09-11 00:49:48

@nntaleb Ahla! Min wén hiyyé? Permalink 2020-09-10 21:15:48

@nntaleb This also confirms. But I initially got 1/48 analytically Permalink 2020-09-10 14:17:50

@nntaleb 1/42 Permalink 2020-09-09 20:17:26

@nntaleb Excellent! Permalink 2020-09-09 17:33:27

@nntaleb Something like an amuse-gueule Permalink 2020-09-09 15:34:59

@nntaleb The first Livias were Swedish and/or Swiss Permalink 2020-09-09 12:43:49

@nntaleb Qual è il tuo personaggio preferito in “Commissario Montalbano”? Permalink 2020-09-08 19:55:22

@nntaleb I like it that John Clesse likes my books. But I like it much much better that he both likes my books and hates Pinker’s. Permalink 2020-09-08 18:56:14

@nntaleb Doesn’t mean infinite mean deviation. Only that the 2nd moment is undefined. Can explain next #RWRI Permalink 2020-09-08 18:53:38

@nntaleb How many people on the *true* left disagree with this? Permalink 2020-09-08 12:24:50

@nntaleb All #Ponzi schemers enter a phase of denial. #RiadPonzi Permalink 2020-09-08 12:23:19

@nntaleb Too much diversity among doctors. Permalink 2020-09-08 12:07:53

@nntaleb Another interesting thing: Tower of Babel is migdal Babel in Heb. Same as “Majdl l 3a2oura” or مجدل عنجر @Marcellenassif @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-08 11:59:01

@nntaleb 13 ½ years after The Black Swan someone formally investigated my statement about the tail difference between SCALABLE (authors) and NONSCALABLE (dentist, prostitute) occupations. Permalink 2020-09-08 11:36:36

@nntaleb Swimming distance. Me too. Permalink 2020-09-07 18:45:33

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL CONFUSION DU JOUR: TOWER (πύργος) A Is the Homeric Greek πύργος origin for برج burj, (itself perhaps from Urartian) via Syriac ܦܘܪܓܳܘܣ or ܒܘܪܓܐ or is there a common root? [BrgiBorges, Borgia] B What is the connection to a) appearance b) divination [See below] Permalink 2020-09-07 18:40:21

@nntaleb Are you in Cyprus now? Permalink 2020-09-07 18:04:34

@nntaleb Block trolls. Permalink 2020-09-07 16:39:18

@nntaleb CLueless Permalink 2020-09-07 16:24:48

@nntaleb Summary thread. A forecast MUST account for its own error. Since small probabilities are convex, uncertainty raises them. Nate Silver & Phil the Rat🐁 @PTetlock didn’t get that ALL methods end up converging to the same price (Tetlock🐁 never understood the Brier Score). Permalink 2020-09-07 15:27:20

@nntaleb L tarjamé taba3 Google Permalink 2020-09-07 15:16:58

@nntaleb Friends, do we have data on COVID infection rates for flight attendants & others from exposures in airplanes? Thanks. Permalink 2020-09-07 11:15:53

@nntaleb We have plenty, in Greek and Latin. Permalink 2020-09-06 20:09:45

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, populations are not defined by nations. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-09-06 19:50:23

@nntaleb Jaydeh hiyyé modernista te3rib! Mni7a bleghghetna! Permalink 2020-09-06 19:23:51

@nntaleb Lebnen: Men l Ponzi lal Te3dir (Antifragility) by @BLebnene Permalink 2020-09-06 19:21:42

@nntaleb Much of the problems of modernity is taking religion literally and science metaphorically, rather than the reverse. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:47:21

@nntaleb “We” changes over time intergenerationally. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:43:39

@nntaleb 2) thread Permalink 2020-09-06 16:31:06

@nntaleb A Phoenician revival in Sicily when AUB trained-inspired Orientalistidiots-Arabista-mononculturistic fascists & halfrained thinktank losers are trying to repress it in #Lebanon as a “sectarian” thing. Permalink 2020-09-06 16:30:26

@nntaleb RWRI slides Permalink 2020-09-06 13:58:42

@nntaleb If you are going for squid ink, Beirut is better. If you are going for Data Science, another story. Permalink 2020-09-06 13:35:36

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink 2020-09-06 13:34:50

@nntaleb Try the $49.95 worldwide guaranteed price at the Scribe store @zachobront Permalink 2020-09-06 12:37:19

@nntaleb Squid ink in Cyprus is indeed one of the best. But Beirut’s squid ink is better. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:34:10

@nntaleb Bent’s reply. Never engage in a large scale project without looking at his work on overruns. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:28:58

@nntaleb Today’s tools used by IQ mongers such as the mountebank @charlesmurray (of the bell curve) have the same statistical validity as Le Bon’s cranium theories. And academics swallowed it. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:27:30

@nntaleb In a lectshur presenting AF Permalink 2020-09-06 12:22:42

@nntaleb God created IQ psychologists and economists such as @GarettJones so we can teach classes on their mistakes & teach how to not be fooled by data. #RWRI PS- National IQ is a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:59:16

@nntaleb You must make lemonade out of every lemon. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:44:43

@nntaleb 2ri 3an Wittgenstein’s Private Language Argument katabo Saul Kripke. Permalink 2020-09-05 22:25:29

@nntaleb I want to help! Permalink 2020-09-05 21:57:42

@nntaleb Not with a good risk management system Permalink 2020-09-05 20:32:42

@nntaleb No, the first is the right one. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:29:46

@nntaleb Not quite true: It had to be a synonym in Classical Arabic at the time of Mutanabbi, as shown in his famous poem against the then ruler of Egypt. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:27:48

@nntaleb Farayya. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:23:28

@nntaleb Friends, does Jan 11-22 work for #RWRI 15? Permalink 2020-09-05 19:05:40

@nntaleb Harry has an exemption. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:57:11

@nntaleb Also it was in jest. Paganism does not have a definition. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:43:33

@nntaleb Thanks Bent!!! Permalink 2020-09-05 17:15:34

@nntaleb Not yet Permalink 2020-09-05 16:32:04

@nntaleb South Italy is East Med: same culture same people Permalink 2020-09-05 16:29:34

@nntaleb If you don’t like truth, fuck off. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:20:51

@nntaleb Do you realize that Spanish will soon be banned? Permalink 2020-09-05 16:16:35

@nntaleb I admire his Gadness but he lives in the wrong place. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:15:18

@nntaleb Why I bailed out of U.S. academia. Anyone who is still in it by choice is a moron & those trapped there for lack of other options are total losers. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:14:34

@nntaleb New York bagels are better. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:06:43

@nntaleb Went fast (unless there is a typo) Permalink 2020-09-05 14:53:27

@nntaleb Saturday morning relaxation in memory of @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2020-09-05 14:41:43

@nntaleb 3)#Lebanon #LebanonProtests #Bisridam Permalink 2020-09-05 13:52:30

@nntaleb Bent @BentFlyvbjerg, can you show us a simple graph of cost overruns for dam projects? You will be helping debunk the @Gebran_Bassil “helping the poor” narrative. Ignoring other tail risks… (Bent is THE world’s foremost specialist on megaprojects cost) Permalink 2020-09-05 13:42:21

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-09-05 13:21:45

@nntaleb The World Bank fragilista IYIs do not have a good track record in understanding the cost-benefit tradeoffs of such projects. The Besri Dam represents a yuuuuge irreversible environmental blight w/no tangible benefit, mis-marketed & misrepresented as “helping the poor”. Permalink 2020-09-05 12:23:58

@nntaleb You bet Permalink 2020-09-04 22:37:24

@nntaleb High variance != fat tails. Tails risks are no different from what they were before. Perception is a bit higher . Permalink 2020-09-04 20:40:08

@nntaleb You are a vile, despicable person, @Frances_Coppola. David Graeber’s body is still warm & he is defenseless. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-04 18:38:48

@nntaleb Blocked the idiot. Permalink 2020-09-04 15:18:28

@nntaleb COVID Risk Conversation with @yaneerbaryam. At the end I explain to Yaneer that my background is much nicer; he should add books or, better, hang cooking instruments behind him to make it more jovial. Permalink 2020-09-04 14:35:47

@nntaleb Alternative, if the typo is 1 Permalink 2020-09-04 14:08:10

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-04 13:22:54

@nntaleb The entire point of Antifragile is that we do not make decisions based on probability but a combination that ALWAYS includes payoffs. In that sense proba <<< time expectation [ergodic] So tried to Lindify by reversing the damage done by frauds, usually psychologists (Tetlocks). Permalink 2020-09-04 12:05:18

@nntaleb Morning workout. Please avoid special functions. Permalink 2020-09-04 11:03:37

@nntaleb Not necessary, implied for I not for II Permalink 2020-09-04 10:12:45

@nntaleb Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb via @YouTube Permalink 2020-09-04 01:28:09

@nntaleb 8 ½ years after #Antifragile. Not bad. Permalink 2020-09-04 00:12:30

@nntaleb La methode Salafi a cause des deites semites! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:28:51

@nntaleb Tshrin msh October! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:26:18

@nntaleb Fété7? Wéyn? Permalink 2020-09-03 19:57:35

@nntaleb Sleep well! I manage now between 7 ½ and 9 ½ Permalink 2020-09-03 17:57:26

@nntaleb Bataille Royale bil jazal. بس شوي هدّوا يا شباب في بروتوكول ! Permalink 2020-09-03 17:44:07

@nntaleb انا كمان ما بمبسط بهيدا الحرف Permalink 2020-09-03 17:42:15

@nntaleb David Graeber He was a real intellectual; very real: not one fake cell in his brain, not one fake bone in his body. He thought independently. He was monstrouly original. He had intellectual courage. The world seems much much smaller today than before Sep 2. David, RIP Permalink 2020-09-03 17:20:12

@nntaleb 3esh miyyé w sntein! Permalink 2020-09-03 15:45:23

@nntaleb Wrong also about many other things… Permalink 2020-09-03 14:59:16

@nntaleb How much does it sell for? Permalink 2020-09-03 14:58:43

@nntaleb Maybe “promoted” would fix? Permalink 2020-09-03 11:30:04

@nntaleb Hi, maybe some day but too hard to put together. Permalink 2020-09-03 11:23:00

@nntaleb Bear @Prof_BearB is a diplomatic & polite fellow saying what I have been saying in my own way (that is, less politely): that @sapinker is, scientifically speaking, a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-03 10:33:28

@nntaleb The red is… bottarga? Permalink 2020-09-02 21:31:08

@nntaleb Did you @STEPHENPUNWASI intentionally reverse the meaning of the tweets by @ndehouche ? Permalink 2020-09-02 20:43:55

@nntaleb Minute 9 he explains how it was modeled after Law School of Beirut @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-02 19:56:04

@nntaleb The part Jewish… it was not too differentiated at the time. Anyway I read somewhere that the Talmud was an imitation of the Beirut disputatio method (given that the Jews wanted no Roman law, yet wanted to emulate). Will find source & revert. Permalink 2020-09-02 19:49:00

@nntaleb Harari was created so that psycholophasters like @sapinker seem intelligent. Permalink 2020-09-02 17:13:52

@nntaleb Why Severus Alexander? Permalink 2020-09-02 17:06:06

@nntaleb Actually this picture in Lebanon is close (a winery in the Batroun district). Permalink 2020-09-02 16:47:31

@nntaleb Yes, the preparation requires it! Permalink 2020-09-02 16:38:00

@nntaleb They would use a technology, medical treatment, squid ink recipe, or scientific result conceived by someone considered morally repugnant. But they will “cancel” an actor/politician/mediaperson/ standard academic. Let it sink in that some pple are both superfluous & v. dependent Permalink 2020-09-02 16:00:00

@nntaleb هيدا محتال فنّاص كمّل عليه Permalink 2020-09-02 13:23:47

@nntaleb Squares. Don’t work with infinite kurtosis. Permalink 2020-09-02 12:50:46

@nntaleb Preparation for my trip next week, my own “return to the Med”. Permalink 2020-09-02 12:36:06

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-09-01 21:29:54

@nntaleb Isaac Levy, RIP Permalink 2020-09-01 21:02:45

@nntaleb Clearly, @dvoshart is a fraud, beyond his lack of scholarship & technical knowledge. I leave it to Maghrebi people to debunk his representation of their heritage & his exploitation of African people to make a political point. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:15:39

@nntaleb Somewhat messy; may have a mistake. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:10:55

@nntaleb A bit messy but here Permalink 2020-09-01 19:09:41

@nntaleb C’est pas le sujet du livre. Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:50

@nntaleb Where was that? Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:17

@nntaleb Ils ont massacré le titre Permalink 2020-09-01 16:49:03

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-01 14:53:44

@nntaleb Imbecile, it means it is vulnerable to the smallest disruption. Permalink 2020-09-01 14:41:55

@nntaleb The pandemic is not “unprecedented”. What is unprecedented is: FRAGILITY + PANDEMIC Our economic system has never been more fragile, more stretched, more vulnerable to small disruptions. @octonion Permalink 2020-09-01 14:37:44

@nntaleb Staged or real? Permalink 2020-09-01 13:50:25

@nntaleb For those of us locked-in because of the rain. Permalink 2020-09-01 13:27:24

@nntaleb Mine were GrecoPhoenicians Permalink 2020-08-31 20:49:21

@nntaleb Some job openings. A Greek-Orthodox Lebanese can’t be 1) president, 2) prime minister, 3) speaker of parliament, 4) governor of the central bank, 5) head of the military. Permalink 2020-08-31 20:00:37

@nntaleb Fat Tony: “Hating Trump and voting for Biden aren’t the same ting” * * Ting means “thing” in dialectal Fat Tonyism. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:52:20

@nntaleb Distinction without a difference. BS. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:45:41

@nntaleb BTW for people listening to this ignorant photoshoot Voshart, this is a period representation. Here my pics from the original at the Met. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:43:16

@nntaleb Voshart, nobody cares about your opinion on matters of scholarship. Maybe about food, photos, etc. But not anything related to scholarships/AI/statistical inference/rigor. I do not care to win an argument against you. Just letting pple know you are a fraud. Enjoy taking photos. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:22:35

@nntaleb Time to revisit (for entertainment) the Nate Silver Ignorance of Probability given that “Kolanovic Says Trump Re-Election Odds Soaring, Prompting Nate Silver To Melt Down On Twitter | Zero Hedge” More papers on how to predict elections under uncertainty Permalink 2020-08-31 19:14:59

@nntaleb Often make mistakes in that direction. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:07:55

@nntaleb TRADERS LORE: life is about the increment. When one takes a hit, suffers a personal/collective setback, must not look back. Losers look back. Look ONLY ahead &, when back in the saddle, you’ll get encouraged, even thrilled by the slope/improvement (1st derivative). Stock vs Flow. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:43:56

@nntaleb Warning abt the Roman Emperor pictures. @dvoshart is a photographer; clueless about AI, conditional updating, genetics, etc. In other words, pretty much a fraud. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:30:30

@nntaleb @dvoshart is a fraud. KNows nothing about AI or conditional updating. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:29:07

@nntaleb Yes, but for other reasons than “rights”. Because there are more effective alternatives. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:59:54

@nntaleb (Pseudo)libertarian minds have the intellectual nuances & logical refinement of somewhere betw. the unicellular amoeba & invertebrate sea slugs. And of course no notion of scaling of collective risks/dynamics & iatrogenics. In short: what I usually refer to as “idiots”. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:58:20

@nntaleb Oui mais c’est la réaction après! Permalink 2020-08-31 16:44:45

@nntaleb Any idea how many centimeters? Permalink 2020-08-31 15:04:56

@nntaleb 🙏 for your safety. Permalink 2020-08-31 15:02:29

@nntaleb Il m’a répondu qu’il n’y avait pas de RV. Alors qu’il m’avait envoyé l’adresse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:59:59

@nntaleb Il n’a meme pas annulé. Je me pointe chez lui, on me repond qu’il est au Maroc. Meme pas d’excuse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:40:01

@nntaleb 8 pages au total. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:39:23

@nntaleb L’article intégral (mais il ne faut pas dire au Point que je partage…) Permalink 2020-08-31 13:37:32

@nntaleb Elle etait presente. Il m’a posé un lapin une fois a Paris. L’année suivante je le vois a Saint Paul de Vence avec Arielle. Il essaye de me parler, je lui demande de ne pas me deranger. Une année apres les employés de l’hotel en parlent encore. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:01:26

@nntaleb Or the “g” where they talk about “manifold” Permalink 2020-08-31 12:03:14

@nntaleb J’ai eu une histoire avec BHL. Tres amusante. Apres mon café. Permalink 2020-08-31 11:47:44

@nntaleb Great Solution! Permalink 2020-08-30 15:21:20

@nntaleb La photo n’est pas très … Permalink 2020-08-30 10:54:21

@nntaleb The main problem with statistics is statisticians. Permalink 2020-08-29 16:48:51

@nntaleb The ArcSin law (Feller) Permalink 2020-08-29 16:23:44

@nntaleb Morning therapy [ROMANIAN MATHEMATICAL MAGAZINE] Permalink 2020-08-29 11:43:03

@nntaleb BS. Less than 3% but the reverse is true: Arabians with a Levantine origin. Permalink 2020-08-29 11:16:57

@nntaleb American Universities are going to be totally controlled by Robestpierristas (by the minority rule). I mean, totally, as there is no visible countermechanism. Sorry for the innocent funders of their endowments. Permalink 2020-08-29 00:07:43

@nntaleb Wait a week or so. Permalink 2020-08-28 23:55:40

@nntaleb 2) Kamal Salibi was literally a fiction writer (as patently shown in his theory of the origin of Moses). THe Marib dam population is another fiction. Any scholar citing him for anything historical is effectively a fraud. cc:@PZalloua We are debunking that crap with min effort Permalink 2020-08-28 23:54:50

@nntaleb This is TOTAL BS 95% population is local. The Maronites RELIGION came from near Apamea, the POPULATION is local. Sunnis is Lebanon have ~NO Peninsular origin. And the Druze are loca, and, if anything Anatolians. If there is a “foreign origin”, it is Anatolian for ALL >3000 y ago. Permalink 2020-08-28 22:08:12

@nntaleb Are you Erythrean? Permalink 2020-08-28 21:44:29

@nntaleb Twitter conversations can help develop an idea. Permalink 2020-08-28 21:39:28

@nntaleb You forget @normonics and an unnamed person (as yet) in government. Permalink 2020-08-28 14:48:34

@nntaleb Je vais m’y mettre alors. Permalink 2020-08-28 11:08:12

@nntaleb I know Hebrew Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:40

@nntaleb Please explain. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:19

@nntaleb The Gulf despises “Shamis” (Levantines) and they consider us pretenders & a highly impure race, so their form of antisemitism is directed towards Levantines. Jews don’t bother them as much. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:14:39

@nntaleb Yes the thing is about lithurgy, not culture. Ezra told me how he wrote in Judeo-Arabic, his father’s script. I could speak to him for 24 hours without noticing. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:10:57

@nntaleb Zilkha. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:05:18

@nntaleb Sephardic is not Mizrahi, as you well know! I remember Ezra Zilha insisting obsessively that he was not Separdic. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:03:54

@nntaleb Yes here it is. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:02:06

@nntaleb That’s not at all what he is saying. To the contrary. Permalink 2020-08-27 22:51:39

@nntaleb Meds not just Mizrahis. Also Alexandrians. They had duty free shops in NY and Paris, no? Permalink 2020-08-27 22:28:52

@nntaleb Almost right. The Farhis were political advisors… Permalink 2020-08-27 21:55:03

@nntaleb Not reliable in a train station with transit Permalink 2020-08-27 21:52:17

@nntaleb 3) The idea of the Brier Score is that you need to be *precise* hence minimize the error rate. Under maximal uncertaity it becomes betting at ½. Same with entropy. This is our response to Silver’s agent: Permalink 2020-08-27 20:07:43

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-27 19:54:10

@nntaleb In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:41:49

@nntaleb 4th paper abt my problem w/Nate Silver & that idiot @PTetlock over election forecasting. It’s (perhaps) refining my methodology & that of @DhruvMadeka Basically: Predictions must have #skininthegame hence MUST be subjected to arbitrage boundaries. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:39:41

@nntaleb 2/ Google Translate iza bit na22é shubit2ul ma fi ytrjem w l 3alam hon bidi3o shwayy. Baddak tékhedon w tjibon shwayy. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:28:21

@nntaleb Tweet deleted! Permalink 2020-08-27 19:24:50

@nntaleb This is an excellent intuition. Permalink 2020-08-27 18:09:53

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:48:32

@nntaleb You can condition mobility on that. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:32:28

@nntaleb Looks like the END. (If true, & you do not need that good a rate of false negative). Our circle saw the Covid problem when all these “expert” idiots where blind, failed to see the dynamics. Now we see the resolution when they are stuck in the past. Testing was the solution. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:30:33

@nntaleb Nothing racist. Damascus Jews are a distinct cutural group with merchant habits because they were traditionally excluded from the military. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:22:27

@nntaleb The end of the tunnel. So life can resume. (If this is true). And, I am certain, more such tests are on the way. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:05:21

@nntaleb Only 20-30 million people speak Koranic Arabic and none as a native language. Out of 1.5 bil. Permalink 2020-08-27 16:54:38

@nntaleb Look: Islam & Judaism kept the original language. Christianity did until Vatican 2 (or 1). Permalink 2020-08-27 16:37:45

@nntaleb Could be someone from Tyre as an author. They wrote in Greek. Permalink 2020-08-27 15:36:01

@nntaleb شي حمصي عم بردلون ياها Permalink 2020-08-27 15:21:18

@nntaleb Huwwé 7msé Permalink 2020-08-27 15:19:02

@nntaleb @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-08-27 11:29:47

@nntaleb ANCIENT PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: SIDONIANS There is an antology of jokes (Philogelos) compiled in the Hellenistic period. The butt of jokes are Sidonians who represent foolishness (something not attested elsewhere). Some of the jokes are remarkably modern. Permalink 2020-08-27 11:20:07

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-27 02:40:04

@nntaleb I meant a cut of the profits Permalink 2020-08-27 02:28:39

@nntaleb Aleppo was on the silk road. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:15:20

@nntaleb A Syrian joke: Put three persons from Aleppo in the same room; they will create a commodities market. Put three people from Damascus & they will form a political party. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:11:21

@nntaleb I was only employed for 7 ½ years in total, but in 1987 as a trader we had a cut and the job instability of entrepreneurs. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:08:45

@nntaleb “We don’t do Jobs” In 1989, a bunch of young Aleppo Jews arrived in NY, the last to leave Syria. A friend of mine went to greet them & offer help in securing employment: “We don’t do jobs” They started selling shoes in Harlem & the Bronx. 30 y later they all have yuuge mansions. Permalink 2020-08-27 01:30:46

@nntaleb Which joke? Permalink 2020-08-27 00:46:21

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-08-26 23:45:07

@nntaleb The skew decreased for those using Black Scholes. But most traders used their own intuitive pricing in the pits. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:53:51

@nntaleb Not really. There was a skew before for OTM. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:20:15

@nntaleb Hi John (if I may) It is explained much much better here Ciao, N Permalink 2020-08-26 20:38:24

@nntaleb En corse? @diankarlu Permalink 2020-08-26 19:27:34

@nntaleb Must be a station for travelers pple out of town Permalink 2020-08-26 18:07:14

@nntaleb Possible but more likely bad birth records Permalink 2020-08-26 17:45:51

@nntaleb Your harmless insult would have more value if you showed your identity (#Skininthegame). As such it is solely an expression of being a loser. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:35:45

@nntaleb Posting the errata for STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. The PDF will update next week. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:32:33

@nntaleb You can disagree without pathologizing him for being Jewish. The Thawra has NOTHING to gain from it. NOTHING. Grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:27:19

@nntaleb It is usually the real losers who play naked cowardly bigotry against a defenseless super-minority (Jewish). If you had any self respect, you would be showing your name. Try to be useful to the Thawra, grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:25:15

@nntaleb In #SkinintheGame I was shocked to see Italians eating at MacDonalds in the Milan train station: it’s abt lowering the variance, trading quality for certainty & reliability. It’s the same reason you hire employees: for their predictability/reliable mediocrity, never for quality. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:02:02

@nntaleb Has ALSO been tested by time. Permalink 2020-08-26 15:03:30

@nntaleb In Principia Politica: Permalink 2020-08-26 15:01:14

@nntaleb This is BULLSHIT. The term antisemite means targeting Jews specifically. You should be ashamed as it is a huge embarassment for the Thawra. Permalink 2020-08-26 11:53:12

@nntaleb Yes but I like to be free. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:56:48

@nntaleb I was approached for the board. I don’t do boards. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:45:01

@nntaleb Antisemitism is bad for Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:43:31

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class. Permalink 2020-08-25 21:02:48


@nntaleb Make a list of quacks and put him on it. It’s easy. Permalink 2020-08-25 19:06:18

@nntaleb Another signal. They add up. Wear a mask. via @business Permalink 2020-08-25 18:01:27

@nntaleb 1 year! Permalink 2020-08-25 17:44:55

@nntaleb Why the fuck does his background have anything to do with anything? This is SHAMEFUL. Delete your tweet. Permalink 2020-08-25 17:40:44

@nntaleb Waiting for the findings by @stan_yurin and the Shill Buster for the amusement. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:57:55

@nntaleb No, still the first. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:23:20

@nntaleb SILENT RISK, Vol 2 of the Technical Incerto Once you get the title right, the book writes itself. Permalink 2020-08-25 14:44:54

@nntaleb Yes otherwise you would have no MDs Permalink 2020-08-25 13:34:35

@nntaleb You are both right. A weak argument becomes a fallacy when used out of context. As with that FrancoOxford idiot & @BallouxFrancois Permalink 2020-08-25 13:11:48

@nntaleb “I am a professorrr at Oxford HENCE I understand RISK Hence I decide who does and doesn’t understand RISK”. Straight character out of #Antifragile, @JBerestycki is like one of those nuns lecturing street prostitutes on sexual positions & how to scam clients. #ExpertProblem #IYI Permalink 2020-08-25 12:16:29

@nntaleb 2/ And of course I do not mandate lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:11:07

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, read Hayek. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:03:15

@nntaleb This is shoddy journalism: the authors insists that Falwell was a Trump supporter. If someone who violates a moral rule loves watching Mickey House, Mickey Mouse now has a partial agency of the moral violation. [Journos violate this rule on both sides, as with Epstein.] Permalink 2020-08-24 22:59:30

@nntaleb Thanks Gary for helping him. Chap 3 is nontechnical Permalink 2020-08-24 21:18:00

@nntaleb There is no “real world risk”. It is risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 21:00:09

@nntaleb Or risk. This fucking idiot Julien Berestycki can make NO statement about risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 20:40:55

@nntaleb Equal weighted and rebalanced? Or rebalanced once? Permalink 2020-08-24 18:44:50

@nntaleb No, può sorgere con me. Mangio sempre trippa e la do agli ospiti. Permalink 2020-08-24 18:43:43

@nntaleb Block. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:56:41

@nntaleb So long as it is comprehensive, no. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:46:29

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-24 17:44:51

@nntaleb Thanks! Can you show us the clusters? Permalink 2020-08-24 17:39:55

@nntaleb A summary of my IQ piece. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:14:53

@nntaleb Download the PDF and print it Permalink 2020-08-24 16:28:54

@nntaleb Explain what you mean. Permalink 2020-08-24 14:10:35

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STAT CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping.… And remember the PDF is Free!… Permalink 2020-08-24 14:02:14

@nntaleb Baalbeck = Heliopolos, so very credible. Permalink 2020-08-24 13:51:01

@nntaleb Sorry but I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-08-24 12:58:08

@nntaleb This is not a “wall of shame” made by anyone I know. This is a Wall of Fame promoted by the anti-mask-virus-is-a-hoax industry, with a message to support their tweets. Gabish? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:57:38

@nntaleb You are not getting what fat tails mean here. It is the spread in the environment/disruption cascades Permalink 2020-08-24 12:42:14

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean by cannot invoke any credible mechanism? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:37:12

@nntaleb Neither Ioannidis nor Levitt (nor even clueless Balloux) are directly involved but there is a group of active astroturfers for the mask-denying-virus-is-a-hoax agenda. As w/Monsanto, could be traced to PR firm. Suspicion: someone w/investments in airlines/hospitality funding. Permalink 2020-08-24 12:29:40

@nntaleb If your prior is thin tails your posterior becomes fat tails after one single observation Permalink 2020-08-24 11:04:23

@nntaleb I will start a dialogue as follows (frm your site you seem trustworthy) We’re not saying this is worse than anything. Pls read our debate w/Ioannidis(a gntlman). Please comment honestly; I will not be upset if unlike Belloux you point at *precise* flaws. Permalink 2020-08-24 01:49:16

@nntaleb Mr Househ, I can engage you outside this conversation if you wish. Permalink 2020-08-24 01:22:43

@nntaleb Why didn’t you come to the last day of RWRI? Permalink 2020-08-24 01:19:34

@nntaleb @gabrielpeyre Permalink 2020-08-24 01:17:13

@nntaleb Beware statements like “it does not depend on the law of the entries”. Convergence is super-slow, only works at infinity. I show example in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, but with Fat tails (free PDF). Permalink 2020-08-24 01:13:09

@nntaleb Here is the hall of “experts”: 3-4 down out of 12 (includ. civilized debate w/Ioannidis), but others would be scraping the bottom of the pot. These “experts” are being used for backup by the politicized no-mask-virus-is-a-hoax mob (see from @BallouxFrancois’s feed). Permalink 2020-08-24 00:05:26

@nntaleb My friend, stamp tax in the UK made houses rich owing to CFDs (Contracts for differences). Permalink 2020-08-23 23:31:57

@nntaleb Mni7a Permalink 2020-08-23 21:21:58

@nntaleb Not related. Shammas is from an old pagan practice (Shams) means acolyte for both Christians and Mizrahi Jews Permalink 2020-08-23 21:17:35

@nntaleb When someone declares “I will not devote more time to this”, it is a guarantee he will spend more time on it. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:16:14

@nntaleb I mean garbiyo Permalink 2020-08-23 21:10:30

@nntaleb Plural? Permalink 2020-08-23 21:09:27

@nntaleb Yes, indeed. But I wonder why in Syriac North is Gharbiyo. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:05:10

@nntaleb Yes my interest is in EXONAMES given by the conquerrors as a geographic position w/reference to them. Sham is an exoname (relates to someone south of you). Maghreb is one. Anatolia is one. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:51:25

@nntaleb OK, OK, I made a mistake: there are some Dimashqi, but much much fewer than Shami. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:46:54

@nntaleb I meant in the vernaculars Permalink 2020-08-23 20:41:31

@nntaleb Yes that’s what I was looking for. @QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 20:36:49

@nntaleb No. Mikdash vs Mshkan. Easy for us to get (maskan). Permalink 2020-08-23 20:35:25

@nntaleb Relax, MSM. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:33:17

@nntaleb I was wondering when the name stopped and when it resumed. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:32:02

@nntaleb Was that name given during Nahda? Permalink 2020-08-23 20:07:37

@nntaleb Elia Capitolina. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:06:28

@nntaleb Or the Syriac, I don’t know if ܕܰܪܡܣܘܩܳܝܐ was used before Nahda. @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 20:02:08

@nntaleb After Nahda. cc:@QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 19:51:01

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The name Dimashq دمشق was almost never used in Ar. for 1200 y before Orientalists, but exoname “AlSham” الشام (“the North”). For Ottomans “Şam Sancağı” Hint: There are family names “Shami”, no “Dimashqi”. Same for Jerusalem: اورشليم was القدس.(=>Qudsi) Permalink 2020-08-23 19:48:10

@nntaleb Was in 2018 Permalink 2020-08-23 17:27:13

@nntaleb Lessons from the errors of @BallouxFrancois 1- RISKS: for 1 indiv. is the real of medicine/biology. Risk for a collective is statistical modeling. For >10^6, Extreme Value Theory. 2- ACTION: For indiv it is abt health. For collective, it is all about connectivity. Permalink 2020-08-23 17:07:28

@nntaleb That was March 11 Permalink 2020-08-23 16:22:39

@nntaleb In Berytus restaurants, Mazaher Permalink 2020-08-23 16:15:38

@nntaleb Yes he does not know how to calculate risk. Not at all. He conflates individual and aggregate. I saw numerous errors before yesterday. Totally clueless. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:59:36

@nntaleb “Please stop; please stop!”… “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t yet know what he is getting into. This is just the prologue. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:38:23

@nntaleb 4/ Please be careful about the “Sweden argument”. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:18:37

@nntaleb 3/ FALSE DICHOTOMIES: Economy vs virus. Most bus failures come from risk aversion. Nonlinearity: hosp capacity gets overhelmed. We are progressively learning abt the disease: BUY TIME, w/treatments improving, perhaps vaccine. Most effective: masks+superspreaders for now Permalink 2020-08-23 14:48:56

@nntaleb 2 Permalink 2020-08-23 14:40:08

@nntaleb Balloux has NO idea how to calculate risk, but not my point here: he give fodder to a crowd of crackpots. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:28:50

@nntaleb 2/MYTHS BY CRANKS a- “Masks are not effective” (using “sounds scientific” biology argument) b- Measures carry economic costs: no, it’s the VIRUS that’s costly [See debate w/Ioannidis]. c- “Death numbers are low” w/o realizing it is BECAUSE of measures. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:25:43

@nntaleb Friends, there is a mob of “COVID is not serious” (even hoax) politicized attack dogs w/no notion of science nor interest in it who tag to the very few play-the-system risk-clueless academics like @BallouxFrancois carrying THE msg that fits them. Any other compromised academic? Permalink 2020-08-23 14:03:59

@nntaleb Marsa= port en Phenicien Permalink 2020-08-23 13:40:57

@nntaleb Try Amioun outdoor cafés. I work there all the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:14:42

@nntaleb I fail to understand why all your cartoons make me morose and serious when I joke 99.999999% of the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:12:13

@nntaleb @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 13:09:59

@nntaleb L’accento siciliano è vicino all’arabo: p diventa b, o diventa u, c diventa g-q Permalink 2020-08-23 13:04:44

@nntaleb Cavendish, Wolfram. You need independence. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:01:29

@nntaleb Barli sicilianu? Permalink 2020-08-23 12:57:35

@nntaleb 10 – 12 episodi, per imparare il siciliano Permalink 2020-08-23 12:55:57

@nntaleb No. Permalink 2020-08-23 12:48:33

@nntaleb Il commissario Montalbano beve il caffè del mattino Permalink 2020-08-23 12:47:43

@nntaleb Now a ref for the genre (don’t quite agree w/Raoult rather w/his style) Raoult: “He is a kind of Nassim Taleb of infectious disease. He is brilliant, doesn’t feign false humility, & claims rather persuasively that he’s indifferent to many of his critics.” Permalink 2020-08-23 12:29:52

@nntaleb Same. It is never fun unless it is all together. Noticed t you were also MD. We had 2 of them. Permalink 2020-08-23 11:56:15

@nntaleb No but same thing for prof Permalink 2020-08-23 01:30:20

@nntaleb Very illustrative of power laws: at #RWRI we observed an 80/20 rule: we were ~ 100 & 20 people contributed to >80% of the discussions. Permalink 2020-08-23 00:12:23

@nntaleb Why? Permalink 2020-08-22 22:14:51

@nntaleb That “wouldn’t happen” Permalink 2020-08-22 21:04:47

@nntaleb Balloux, if there was a flaw in the paper Mr Curtis would have made a PRECISE point, as I did with you, not some vague comment about the presentation. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:58:47

@nntaleb Dave Curtis, imbecile, 1- Stat/math journals do not have impact factors comparable to medicine (there are 100 times more bullshitting doctors like you than statisticians). IJF is among the top. 2- Explain why I should care about what epidemiologists think? Permalink 2020-08-22 19:42:52

@nntaleb So why the fuck are you imparting statements I did not make? And opinions I DO NOT HAVE? OF COURSE known situation warrants a lower level of precaution (less uncertainty) and more targeted mitigation, no lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:17:12

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not about precaution but this idiot Francois ignorant about basic risk comparisons. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:12:08

@nntaleb 2) Many misunderstood. If I block you it does not mean I am upset, only that I don’t like noise on my TL. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:37:37

@nntaleb This it turned out is part of a bunch of shills from the Monsanto days against our GMO paper. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:36:43

@nntaleb You don’t know Wittgenstein’s ruler. Can’t read as I’ve blocked that troll. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:57:28

@nntaleb Needless to say my solution is the least elegant here! Permalink 2020-08-22 14:40:17

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-22 14:35:57

@nntaleb Post #RWRI relaxation. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:05:52

@nntaleb He is not blocked. You’re the idiot. Ha. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:34:49

@nntaleb To figure out if someone is an idiot, call him an idiot and check if he gets upset. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:25:56

@nntaleb The take home is everything is convex from 0 up to a point. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:14:23

@nntaleb Risk is not his job, obviously. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:02:56

@nntaleb May get concave somewhere, not here & depends how you scale. Log[yield]= \alpha Log[size] so yield =size^\alpha here >1 hence convex at least within range, up till the Taylor limit. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:01:25

@nntaleb سلامتك! Permalink 2020-08-22 01:51:36

@nntaleb Impressive! Permalink 2020-08-22 00:56:18

@nntaleb Compare to last year’s numbers… Permalink 2020-08-21 23:19:22

@nntaleb Your interlocutor was blocked for trolling. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:18:24

@nntaleb 5) And I DO NOT advocate lockdowns (except “in extremis”), rather controlling superspreaders, hyperactive testing, border control & forcing face masks. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:08:49

@nntaleb I see Boldrin on my thread whom I blocked for charlatanism. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:59:20

@nntaleb 4) When I call pple idiots, they have earned it, BSF (“BS-Frankie @BallouxFrancois). For every location, relative changes in Covid fatalities proved > 100 time higher than relative Δ road deaths. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:44:15

@nntaleb 3) Even without fat tails “BS-Frankie” @BallouxFrancois is failing elemtary statistics (Sat 101): comparing 2 variables with different variances (one very low, other very very high). Permalink 2020-08-21 22:06:26

@nntaleb 2) The other thing this marshmallowbrained “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t get is that the #of people who died from COVID accounts for mitigation & risk control measures. It’s like saying: we don’t need security checks since planes aren’t crashing. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:53:20

@nntaleb It is remarkable that you have idiots like this “Prof” @BallouxFrancois who conflate additive risks with multiplicative ones (fat tailed), a mistake your grandmother wouldn’t make. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:27:23

@nntaleb Education w/low tolerance for boring things. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:25:31

@nntaleb Yes < 1/4 could be an inequality. Being conservative with a square law. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:58:06

@nntaleb BEIRUT EXPLOSION at #RWRI: all abt CONCENTRATION & CONVEXITY It has nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with anything except concentration/scaling & 1/n rule of harm: If the Chernobyl plant was ½ the size, damage would be ~1/4. See #Antifragile #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-21 20:51:32

@nntaleb I keep repeating in the INCERTO: take stressors in the middle, be paranoid in the TAILS. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:46:11

@nntaleb 3 times distilled. Permalink 2020-08-21 19:24:26

@nntaleb It is actually finite mean because boundedness. But remote. ANd LLN is slow. Permalink 2020-08-21 14:41:24

@nntaleb If data can be explained by BOTH fat tails & thin tails, then it must be fat tailed. This is the Masquerade Problem: there is a hierarchy of distributions. Note: Every Power law can be explained ex post by a sum of Poissons. But a Poisson cannot be explained by a PL. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-21 14:21:39

@nntaleb Non car si on leve 400 livres la pression arterielle va a 30/15 donc on est SUR qu’il n’y pas de rupture possible. Comme un test de stress. Permalink 2020-08-21 12:44:18

@nntaleb Where is Musar? Permalink 2020-08-21 00:09:22

@nntaleb Wine. We want to see. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:58:49

@nntaleb 135… but watch out! the weights are loose. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:57:15

@nntaleb To sleep well: hedge all your tail exposures. #RWRI + hide nothing from your enemies + pay all your taxes, show the IRS all your income mother of all tail risks) + be uncancellable + back up all your data + have some gold (and/or BTC) but not too much … Permalink 2020-08-20 20:56:09

@nntaleb How high ? Permalink 2020-08-20 20:39:58

@nntaleb Indeed. Most asymptomatic people have “something wrong” in their MRI. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:32:51

@nntaleb It means that one may have centrist opinions on balance, but not be systematically in the center for EVERY issue. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:08:13

@nntaleb I fixed my own by lifting weight progressively Permalink 2020-08-20 14:45:08

@nntaleb Can you go bullshit elsewhere, please? Permalink 2020-08-20 11:09:55

@nntaleb You sleep better when you have tail risk hedges. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-20 11:01:17

@nntaleb and to thank @rperezmarco and @joe_shipman ! Permalink 2020-08-20 02:00:22

@nntaleb Forgot to thank you. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:59:34

@nntaleb I also run mine with water. Cleans the filter. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:43:04

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