Monthly Archives: September 2018

Jesse Norman, Hong Kong, Politics Under Complexity, Horrified, The New Yorker, McCain, Free Speech | Twitter

@nntaleb “Qui veut noyer son chien l’accuse de la rage”. Permalink 8:46 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb When a dominant, functionally monopolist technology company removes post by XYZ claiming it “removed posts by XYZ a Fascist/Conspiracy-Theorist/Misogynist”, read: It *labeled* XYZ a “Fascist/Conspiracy Theorist/Misogynist” so it could silence him/her. #Stalinist old trick. Permalink 8:16 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb On my long trip from HK to Northern Phoenician, reading Jesse Norman’s new book, promising read after his excccccccccccellent bio of Burke! Adam Smith: Father of Economics by Jesse Norman   via @amazon Permalink 8:07 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Honk Kong: a city-state made by traders for traders. Permalink 7:05 PM – 10 Sep 2018

@NathanielATL Reading The Bed of Procrustes. From now on I’ll tell all my friends that @nntaleb is overrated. Will be fun to see who picks up on it. Permalink 9:19 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@RonPaul Why Are We Siding With al-Qaeda?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:16 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@wikileaks Hillary Clinton email: Israeli intelligence says collapse of Syria will spark a Sunni-Shiite war that will benefit #Israel   #Syria #Iran ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:37 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@OfficialSethu I’ve read this 5 times and each time it appears to make more sense than the last time. ‘Localising’ Principle 4 would be tricky. Mainly because politicians have etched themselves, and thereby their ‘theory>practice’ philosophy into EVERYTHING.   Permalink 5:27 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principles of Politics under Complexity (Thread) Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb : What you’ve been saying for well over a decade, Nassim!   Permalink 1:05 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@ptavega Good to know that amazon’s algo learned what is “non talebian” @nntaleb Permalink 12:18 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid OECD published “Scenarios for the world economy to 2060”   What is the value of these scenarios given the uncertainty over a time span of over 40 years and the possibility of SINGULARITY occuring during this period Really NO learning   Permalink 8:11 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Liberals seem to hate Assange as well as establishment Republicans. #FreeAssange   Permalink 4:26 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@emiliodib Voici un projet de dictionnaire lexical français-libanais, ouvert d’accès et collaboratif :   C’est l’effet subsidiaire d’une prochaine publication en ces deux langues. Il contient actuellement ~5500 mots parmi les plus courants. Permalink 1:06 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@nntaleb (corrected and expanded) Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb @yhazony Permalink 6:08 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principle 5 can be seen here:   Permalink 6:00 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Politics under Complex Systems Permalink 5:40 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation. Permalink 9:25 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan man is doing Extreme Value Theory!   Permalink 9:20 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Looking for an integral   Permalink 6:44 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@Imamofpeace Syrian school before and after defeating ISIS. Beautiful. Permalink 8:14 PM – 6 Sep 2018

@LetsWorkHappy If you, like many other ppl, wished our podcast interview between @GadSaad & Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb was longer — check out their in-depth convo on The Saad Truth   Permalink 9:13 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb By Hammurabi’s symmetry, people issuing false accusations should be treated as if they committed the offense themselves. For instance, this @Xeni’s accusation of “death camps” should lead to @Xeni being treated as if she advocated death camps. Gabish? Permalink 6:56 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 The crowd sourcing of anti-BS is something fundamentally new. All you need is a critical number of dedicated folks with the knowledge base to apply that knowledge. The “experts” (or Elites) are extremely threatened by this bottom up approach. Permalink 5:54 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb A simple picture that explains the area ACL Anatolia-Caucasus-Levant as one single historical group, and as a separate category. cc:@PZalloua Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Cleveland Clinic deleted the statement. There is a statistical rigor police on twitter; you could fool the NYT or the NewYorker but can’t BS on Twitter with impunity. Thank you friends members of the Anti-BS vending brigade.   Permalink 6:49 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Cleveland Clinic deleted the statement. There is a statistical rigor police on twitter; you could fool the NYT or the NewYorker but can’t BS on Twitter with impunity. Thank you friends members of the Anti-BS vending brigade.   Permalink 6:49 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I meant he or she. Permalink 3:19 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb We can assert that the “insider” who wrote the NYT Op Ed, assuming he exists, is a neocon.   Permalink 3:14 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2- “Modernity’s double punishment is to make both age prematurely and live longer”. Bed of Procustes Permalink 1:54 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb AGING Thread. We are the first society in which being an elder is not indicative of superior fitness. We are also one of the very few societies in which being an elder does not bring a higher social status. Permalink 1:16 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb When Latin was dropped by the Catholic church, while other Abrahamic religions retained holy tongues, Catholicism collapsed -perhaps independently. Meanwhile, pple in fastest growing religion pray in classical Arabic a tongue <20% understand & < 4% speak. in #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 5:10 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb These clinics need some adult supervision — I mean some statistical supervision. The claim below is about as bogus as it gets.   Permalink 4:33 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb These clinics need some adult supervision — I mean some statistical supervision. The claim below is about as bogus as it gets.   Permalink 4:33 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Never invoke Popper’s argument against intolerance when you tag people as “Nazis”,”fascist”, or “somethingist” in order to be intolerant against them. Never.   Permalink 2:36 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Total nonsense: the idea in #SkinIntheGame about the Popper-Godel metaproblem: those whose platform is against democracy should not be allowed to get there using democracy …much like Salafis in Europe. Shd not be an argument to exclude pple you demonize as “Nazis”. Gabish?   Permalink 5:08 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@Mike2McNeil Permalink 2:25 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@Cernovich John McCain was a butcher and warmonger with infamous temper tantrums and fits of rage. Look at how his legacy is being rewritten. He’s magically a human rights activist and elder statesman. As @nntaleb observed (paraphrased), “If the news is fake, imagine how bad history is.” Permalink 2:21 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Horrified. Almost nothing studied in sociology will hold when students reach the age of 30. Everything in Latin will stay. Greek government, what are you destroying?   Permalink 1:55 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Hello @CreateSpace, why was Roger Makhlouf’s @lebaneselingui1 Lebanese-English dictionary banned and removed from @amazon ? He was told he violated “terms of service”. Which terms of service?   Permalink 9:49 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Devitt is an impressive mind. But there is something abt an 80 year old philosopher dressed like a teenager. By the #LindyEffect there is some type of gravitas, dignitas, and decorum that comes with the offices of philosophers, magistrates, bishops, doctors, & scholars.   Permalink 8:45 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I will give a video lecktchur.   Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The best thing The NewYorker did to Bannon is disinvite him. Much better than debating him as he can’t lose that debate. Information is #Antifragile. Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb And the smear with “death camp” narrative migh be actually debunked (along with the ethics of @Xeni) should one hear from Bannon expressing his own ideas.   Permalink 6:41 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb TheNewYorker disinviting Bannon means the following: 1- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they vary from those as presented by the media, or 2- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they surprise people as less dangerous than what they expected. Permalink 6:38 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@urtatses OPEN INSCRIPTIONS! 10th NOVEMBER, Basque C. Discussing @nntaleb ideas w/ @GuruAnaerobic, @jacoporomei, @Ekaitzsaies… Interested DM me   Permalink 5:22 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb ANSWER: It is a marker of fattailedness. Distributions in the Subexponential class don’t have exponential moments. Permalink 5:11 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@oldlevantine Thank you @nntaleb @Decafquest #EyalZisser #BatYeor   Permalink 4:53 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid An equally important problem to new medical findings invalidating previous ones   are serious mistakes and the underestimation of uncertainty in the diagnostic process (See Forecasting, uncertainty and risk in medical “SCIENCE”)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:16 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr Erickson you are ignorant. Dangerously clueeeless   Permalink 3:28 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@kri_tiker „They [newspapers] lie with right facts; a novelist says the truth with wrong facts“ — @nntaleb #quoteoftheday Permalink 3:02 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Figure out what this absence of moment generating function is the marker of & why? Quite central. @ProbFact   Permalink 3:02 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@KafkasCastle1 @nntaleb convexity & optionality epitomised in one building   Permalink 2:34 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Pagan holiday of Christmas may actually originate from Northern Syria, the area betw Emesa and Heliopolis-Baalbeck (Sol Invictus), brought to Rome w/Domna, around where the Obama-McCain-Qaeda rebels are making these statements.   @EHSANI22 Permalink 1:16 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@RudyHavenstein I love that @nntaleb especially goes after my two main pet peeves: the chickenhawk think-tank neocon warmonger brigade, and the IYI inbred econ-cult, and all their bankster-shill fanboys. Plus he calls out Saudi Barbaria, which I call ‘ISIS with a monarchy.’   Permalink 11:26 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I played the game “will reproduce/not reproduce” below (on psychological & social science “findings” published in Science/Natchur that turn out to be BS. Got 95% right using the simple metric: would it make sense to grandmother? Try it. #LindyEffect   Permalink 8:35 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb #LudicFallacy Permalink 8:27 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Fini la gauche et la droite ? Et si le nouveau clivage de nos vies politiques se faisait entre Grecs et Ro…   via @po_st Permalink 3:45 PM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I am tired hearing my anti-war, anti-interventionism, libertarian-localist & liberal-but-anti-pseudoliberal friends voicing dissent at the deification of Senator McCain. The bottom line is that 1) he is gone & 2) there is no *prominent* obsessive warmonger replacement. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@ScaleStartup one does NOT have to *support* trump in order to be against authoritarian-vietue-signalling-socialism It is not a binary question, despite what kasparov et al leftists would have you believe Permalink 7:37 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is very well trained in Stalinist methods: pathologize, punish then criminalize dissent.   Permalink 7:09 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb + IF ONLY those scientific results that are NOT offensive to certain activist groups get published, “published” science will collapse into propaganda w/o any participant noticing + PLOS has played a dirty rule in past w/GMOs, withdrawing Op-Ed under pressure from Monsanto shills   Permalink 7:02 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@NewEricHoffer This falls in line with a lot of points by @nntaleb . The art is better when people do have a day job.   Permalink 5:55 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@scsclassics A petition has been started to ask Kindle Direct and CreateSpace to continue supporting publishing in the Latin language.  ” target=”_blank”>  ” target=”_blank”>    Permalink 6:58 PM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Logic: IF tenure causes civil servants to be subpar (from adverse selection) AND without tenure civil service becomes political patronage for the ruling party, THEN the only solution is: the MINIMUM nmbr of gov employees, reserved for tasks that can’t be subcontracted. Gabish? Permalink 8:18 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@mikeandallie This is a nice sum problem and also a nice min / max calculus problem to share with students.   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The French are Germanics who speak a Germanic language using Latin words. Permalink 7:50 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Once govt hires a person, it is short optionality. It is stuck with the bad person, when the good one might be able to get a job elsewhere. It is just like adverse selection in insurance. It is a YUUUUUGE cost: We pay for it. Govs employees shd be AS FIREABLE as other citizens. Permalink 7:16 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My solution Permalink 6:29 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid Further to my Tweet “NOT ONLY CAUSALITIES BUT ALSO ASSOCIATIONS ARE HARD IN SOCIAL SCIENCES” a new study of 220,000 adults found that eating well above recommended portions of cheese and meat reduces the risk of death and heart attacks. What medical “SCIENCE” will tell us next! Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Saturday Bogomolny Memorial Riddle @CutTheKnotMath. (BMR) This one is light. (thanks Dan Sitaru Romanian Mathematical Magazine) Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Those who get skin in the game really get it.   Permalink 6:21 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb When comparing salaries of government workers, consider that they have a much, much lower risk of unemployment and layoff than the rest of the population. This employment guarantee is a yuuuge hidden compensation.   Permalink 6:10 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@NonGMOProject These simple tips will ensure your child goes back to school with a lunch they love, made from ingredients you can feel good about.   Permalink 6:05 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@maxkeiser The bloated corpse of David Bowie seen dancing with children.   Permalink 2:27 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@mbalter Recommend two things: A @MotherJones expose that’s a little dated but revealing, and discovery docs from the #Roundup suit showing #Monsanto has funded them. They practically beg for the money.   and   Permalink 2:19 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Science progresses from funeral to funeral (of rentseeking academics). Peace progresses from funeral to funeral (of warmongers). Permalink 6:07 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb No math was used (in the modern sense), just heuristics. #Antifragile, Books 4 be 5.   Permalink 4:11 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The point is that nudgeboy Thaler and other entertainers are translating something static (choice betwen 2 lotteries in state-space) into something dynamic (local policy in sequential betting). Static properties have no meaning in the real world. Permalink 4:10 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@HarryDCrane http://RESEARCHERS.ONE  ” target=”_blank”> http://RESEARCHERS.ONE    publishing platform No paywalls No editorial board No accept/reject Autonomous (author-driven) pre-pub peer review Post-pub peer review http://RESEARCHERS.ONE  ” target=”_blank”> http://RESEARCHERS.ONE   : entrusting scholarship to scholars Follow @researchersone ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:50 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb In contrast when you use a gamma distr (thinner tails than lognormal) one gets a power law… strange. Permalink 3:26 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Proof du jour … (May have a mistake somewhere). Permalink 1:38 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This fellow gets it.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What works on a small scale almost NEVER expands to large scale.   Permalink 4:04 AM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Coincidentally… What he means by “Greek” literature is … things for intellectuals.   Permalink 3:10 PM – 29 Aug 2018