Monthly Archives: August 2016

We Don’t Know What We Are Talking About When We talk about Religion | Medium

We Don’t Know What We Are Talking About When We talk about Religion

People rarely mean the same thing when they say “religion”, nor do they realize that they don’t mean the same thing. For early Jews and Muslims, religion was law. Din means law in Hebrew and religion in Arabic. For early Jews, religion was also tribal; for early Muslims, it was universal. For the Romans, religion was social events, rituals, and festivals –the word religio was a counter to superstitio, and while present in the Roman zeitgeist had no equivalent concept in the Greek-Byzantine East. Law was procedurally and mechanically its own thing, and early Christianity, thanks to Saint Augustine, stayed relatively away from the law, and, later, remembering its foundations, had an uneasy relation with it. For instance, even during the Inquisition, a lay court handled the sentencing

Bsharreh, Titus Livius, Salafis, Dumb Enemies | Twitter

@CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Permalink 8:41 AM – 27 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Speculationdujour: Is Levant/Canaan Semitic by language not population? (Turkey mostly Turkic by language nt origin) Permalink 7:16 AM – 27 Aug 2016

@GhassanDahhan @nntaleb yes; no. Let’s apply this to Saudi Arabia: to act ethically is to act illegally. To act legally is to act unethically. Permalink 10:19 AM – 26 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bien sur!   Permalink 8:15 AM – 26 Aug 2016

@DrCirillo Extremes and Risks in Higher Dimensions Leiden, Sept. 12-16   with @nntaleb, L. de Haan, J. Huesler and many more… Permalink 3:48 AM – 26 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Adding: unethical here is also harmful to society. Permalink 3:33 PM – 25 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If someone is doing something legal but very unethical, is it ethical to stop him by doing something illegal? Is it ethical to not stop him? Permalink 2:49 PM – 25 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This guy is good.   Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published “We Don’t Know What We Are Talking About When We talk about Religion”   Permalink 9:55 AM – 25 Aug 2016

@nntaleb My favorite village in North Leb Bsharreh. Mispelled Bsharri in Arabic as Arabic doesn’t have the “eh” sound.   Permalink 7:13 AM – 25 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Modernity turned Olympic athletes into Roman gladiators, captives. The Greek ideal was to never do activities that reduce one’s humanity. Permalink 7:27 AM – 24 Aug 2016

@kissingsky “What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have; it is what he or she are afraid of losing” @nntaleb Permalink 6:24 AM – 24 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Expanding into a chapter: Nassim Taleb Slams The World’s “Intellectual-Yet-Idiot” Class | Zero Hedge   Permalink 1:08 PM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2) But they started diminishing the role of women before Islam, by killing (not tophet-style) female newborn. Permalink 1:06 PM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pre-Islamic Arabia very likely to be matriarchal: The 3 chief deities, Manat, Al-Lat & Al-Uzza were female.   Permalink 1:05 PM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Much of Semitic dietary laws kept people from socializing outside group. @5n20_Blackbirds Permalink 12:34 PM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rule: Never plagiarize in 2016 w/o an internet search. (@mattstat)   Permalink 11:10 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Anger is privilege for the strong, duty for the righteous, and self-harm for the weak. Permalink 7:05 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I am citing Titus Livius, & you are bringing… Hannity? Watch out: You are one of the few economists I haven’t blocked. @ModeledBehavior Permalink 6:54 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Anger is not for the weak, the vain, the scheming, the fake, and the insecure. “Vana est sine viribus ira” Permalink 6:51 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Anger/outrage have a purpose: use them to act! Ira quae tegitur nocet:Contained anger harms,Seneca. Also: Courroux est vain sans forte mains Permalink 6:48 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@SYRIAC_MARONITE #كلّ_يوم_ضيعة #أميون Permalink 6:33 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Wrong. Emotions might harm sometimes, but authenticity is what makes us humans: Living humans, not dead bureaucrats.   Permalink 6:36 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/For Dionysian/extatic cults in AsiaMinor/Levant:see Tmpl of Bacchus in Baalbeck. RESIDUE: Sufis & others (Gnostics) partook of sim cults. Permalink 6:14 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indeed in #SkinintheGame we show it cannot be literal; requires equivalence. What if a one eyed blinds someone?   Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Speculation: Islam “discouraged” alcohol as fence ag. paganism linked to Bacchic ( Iobacchi) & Dionysian societies prevalent in Asia Minor. Permalink 6:00 AM – 23 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A nightmare.   Permalink 5:00 PM – 22 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Reuploaded ‘Stochastic Tail Exponent For Asymmetric Power Laws’   Permalink 1:32 PM – 22 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The path to mediocrity is paved with platitudes.   Permalink 12:19 PM – 22 Aug 2016

@MSResConsulting I think you would enjoy this, Permalink 8:12 AM – 22 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Published draft of Stochastic Tail Exponent For Asymmetric Power Laws. Looking for errors.   Permalink 5:09 AM – 22 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published “How To Legally Own Another Person”   Permalink 1:44 PM – 21 Aug 2016

@sustain05 Happy Birthday @RonPaul ! Thank you ! Permalink 6:12 PM – 20 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (This was a comment about the counters to the Minority Rule)   Permalink 2:02 PM – 20 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Christians refused to eat sacrificial meat in reaction ag. pagans; Al Akhtal’s reaction ag. Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 Aug 2016

@joshua_landis Civilians: How each side sought to exploit them. More smart reporting by @EHSANI22   Permalink 12:38 PM – 20 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Armenians, a founding pillar of the Lebanese society   via @dailystarleb Permalink 5:01 AM – 20 Aug 2016

@nntaleb We are discussing rebels not rulers. “martyr” for “martyr”. Kapish? @rizikaoikonomik Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Aug 2016

@nntaleb On the difference betw Christian & Salafi “martyrs”. Christians did not attack their pagan enemies. Delenda Permalink 4:28 AM – 20 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If you want squid ink, make Sicilian friends. Good stuff not on the market. To make Sicilian friends you need the right attitude. @clennox Permalink 3:08 AM – 20 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Squid ink. Friday, of Permalink 5:16 PM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Salafis have the nerve to argue about “discrimination” in the West.   Permalink 9:49 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb People I block:”you are bigger than this” when having a pol disagreement (here neocon), guileful despicable approach   Permalink 9:48 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Real World Risk Institue, 3rd Ed. of the Certificate, New York, Oct 3-7. We give scholarships to those who need them   Permalink 6:55 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb For a Shiite reason supercedes tradition, for a Wahabi only tradition counts, “reason” does not exist; Iran is modernizing not Saudi Arabia. Permalink 6:13 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This is REAL squid ink Beiruti style. 5200 years of squid ink tinkering. @humblegrape @dipiqib Permalink 5:39 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2) Authentic squid ink is runny, served w/the squid itself, ironically less tasky than the bottled one. @humblegrape @dipiqib @ModernStoic00 Permalink 5:35 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1) The viscosity of the ink (& use of calamari) shows that it comes from a bottle, flavored w/ dry fish.@humblegrape @dipiqib @ModernStoic00 Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A dumb enemy will harm himself, which is very dangerous to both of you.   Permalink 5:22 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Dumb enemies are a problem as they can be very hard to predict. Permalink 4:56 AM – 19 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Proud of wrecking the lives of teenage girls? of turning journalism into voyeurism? Gooood riddance! #SkinintheGame.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Bien voila! Sorry for the shift. @freakonometrics Permalink 12:43 PM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Close! Can do double gamma or, simply piecewise gamma! Calibration can lower peak! @ValuabilityNY Permalink 12:26 PM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Quiz du jour: Guess the distribution.   Permalink 9:51 AM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb For a finite variance Student T, convergences … @ProbFact We can get explicit dist for Permalink 9:46 AM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb We treat people who go to Vegas to “predict” cards as victims of mental disorder; not those who predict elections !   Permalink 8:54 AM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb and BTW Hayek was trained in law and politics. Permalink 8:13 AM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I speculate that nothing smart, useful, or just nonlethal ever came out of an “economist” (i.e. trained to be one).   Permalink 8:12 AM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ It is a category mistake to compare a Catholic nun to a Jihadi. One is religion, the other is LAW. Kapish? Permalink 6:09 AM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb False equivalence. Catholicism separates church/state; Salafism is a criminal all-encompassing political mvt.Kapish? Permalink 6:03 AM – 18 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Economists are like soldiers selected and trained for only rituals and parades. But they are very good with rituals and parades. Permalink 9:21 AM – 17 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Those who say “I feel sorry for you” mean “I feel envy”. Those who really feel sorry for you don’t say anything. Permalink 6:06 AM – 17 Aug 2016

@nntaleb . @SanguineEmpiric Moralists discuss mores (moeurs) not morals. Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I don’t play basketball. But I will need to start: someone wrote “Antifragile Basketball” in Italian.à-sportiva/dp/8860284694   Permalink 5:47 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@CaesarIpse Some times we are not even able to teach birds how to fly @nntaleb   Permalink 5:03 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Math du jour: (for my book with @DrCirillo) uncovered oddity of Levy-Stable distribution around alpha Permalink 1:37 PM – 16 Aug 2016

The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority

Full article here: The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority

In promoting genetically modified food via all manner of lobbying, purchasing of congressmen, and overt scientific propaganda (with smear campaigns against such persons as yours truly), the big agricultural companies foolishly believed that all they needed was to win the majority. No, you idiots. As I said, your snap “scientific” judgment is too naive in these type of decisions. Consider that transgenic-GMO eaters will eat nonGMOs, but not the reverse. So it may suffice to have a tiny, say no more than five percent of evenly spatially distributed population of non-genetically modified eaters for the entire population to have to eat non-GMO food. How? Say you have a corporate event, a wedding, or a lavish party to celebrate the fall of the Saudi Arabian regime, the bankruptcy of the rent-seeking investment bank Goldman Sachs, or the public reviling of Ray Kotcher, chairman of Ketchum the public relation firm that smears scientists and scientific whistleblowers on behalf of big corporations. Do you need to send a questionnaire asking people if they eat or don’t eat transgenic GMOs and reserve special meals accordingly? No. You just select everything non-GMO, provided the price difference is not consequential. And the price difference appears to be small enough to be negligible as (perishable) food costs in America are largely, about up to eighty or ninety percent, determined by distribution and storage, not the cost at the agricultural level. And as organic food (and designations such as “natural”) is in higher demand, from the minority rule, distribution costs decrease and the minority rule ends up accelerating in its effect.

Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016

Full speech here: Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016

Greed and fear are teachers. I was like people with addictions who have a below average intelligence but were capable of the most ingenious tricks to procure their drugs. When there was risk on the line, suddenly a second brain in me manifested itself and these theorems became interesting. When there is fire, you will run faster than in any competition. Then I became dumb again when there was no real action. Furthermore, as a trader the mathematics we used was adapted to our problem, like a glove, unlike academics with a theory looking for some application. Applying math to practical problems was another business altogether; it meant a deep understanding of the problem before putting the equations on it. So I found getting a doctorate after 12 years in quantitative finance much, much easier than getting simpler degrees.

Pinker, Stewart Brand, Charlatans, Syria, Godel-Popper, Erdogan, Mathematica, Elections | Twitter

@nntaleb Pinker like charlatans talks to the press but no technical work.@sapinker is a BS artist. Permalink 12:56 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pinker has about every attribute of the charlatan. Nothing short of a charlatan.   Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Steady “Arabization” of Syria, away from its rich Syro-Greco-Aramaic heritage via schooling; shd reverse after Saudi bankruptcy. Permalink 12:46 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1)The tension in Syria has antecedent:1000 y tension SyroPhoenician Graeco-Roman v/s desert Arabs; cities vs Permalink 12:33 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Have I ever been subtle with my opinions? @JRLV_Inc Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The elephant may misbehave on the occasion (particularly during hormonal episodes) but he is not a predator. Permalink 10:16 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Stewart Brand, you are not a scientist, you are a shrill and a charlatan. @stewartbrand @dawallach @berggruenInst   Permalink 10:05 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Refine your mind, avoiding BS, journos,& statistical noise to the point that a logical flaw/nonsense sound like a jarring note in a concert. Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is NOT Pascal’s wager! @carlosortegap   Permalink 9:01 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rule: No brain surgery for aheadache if painkiller (or a night’s sleep) can do. #GMOs: a risky unscientific scam.   Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A paper to present to @DrCirillo at his conference in Leiden. With Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (intellectuals yet idiots) in UK condem screening of Salafis but ignore bullying/murder of apostates/hate speech   Permalink 12:51 PM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Plautus: “Eru’meus elephanti corio circumtentust” My master has the *skin of an elephant* @bradd_libby Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Elephant. My favorite animal: takes no crap, gives no crap, harms no-one but when one tries to harm it, never forgets. Permalink 11:18 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Guess (an animal)   Permalink 11:03 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb All books have animals now in UK Permalink 10:31 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thing for squid Ink went too far. Publisher asked “what animal on the cover of Antifragile?” I said “squid!”. Permalink 10:06 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Tolerance (intellectual): Pagan Gr-Roman>Christian(Orth)~Muslim (Shiite)~Secular> Protestant>Christian (Cath)>Atheist>Muslim (Salafi). True? Permalink 9:56 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Looks like my obsession with squid ink is backfiring, trivializing the philter via mainstream commercialization.   Permalink 9:11 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual yet idiot) @billkristol w/peers blew up Iraq & Lybia. No apologies, no learning, no #Skininthegame   Permalink 8:51 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@GhassanDahhan A message from an Algerian woman who was put on a Salafi death-list: No tolerance for the intolerants! (@nntaleb) Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016”   Permalink 6:07 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Friends, does anyone know this book? “On Monotheistic Violence” Permalink 4:48 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Much of what we hear on Syria is propaganda by PR firms/Arab journos. For our paper saw War accounts oft unreliable.   Permalink 11:59 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Student Permalink 5:30 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority”   Permalink 5:29 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Godel-Popper rule: No freedom to the enemies of freedom No rights to the enemies of rights No democracy to the enemies of democracy Kapish? Permalink 4:01 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Car ahead of me with SQUIDINK license plate. Trying to make contact, get recipes, restaurant names … Permalink 3:41 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@alancliddell @nntaleb Calvin and Muad’ Permalink 3:15 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Salafis in France have the nerve to use French freedom of dress to block antiburkini laws.   Permalink 3:14 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ In 1818, the Ottomans beheaded Wahabi boss Ibn Saud, forcing him to listen to music (banned by Wahabis).   Permalink 2:21 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters.   Permalink 11:12 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I am allergic to the term”contrarian”. Assumes a contrary opinion on everything, the opposite of critical thinking. Kapish? @AlanInterface Permalink 10:06 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pre-1918, 2 centers of Islam: Istanbul v/s Wahabis. West (UK) supported Wahabi revolt. If Erdogan brings back Istanbul, much, much better! Permalink 7:29 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thou Shalt Not use Publick Service to Collect Speaking Fees. (Skin in the Game) Permalink 7:05 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Small differences in sigma/errors blow up a 6-sigma by a huge “yuge” amount @D0YouEvenSplash Permalink 6:32 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Here shows comparisons of convavity between n-iterated logthms and power functions Permalink 5:20 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Even if IQ is measurable, tail IQ would not be beyond the category “very high”. (Variance in extremes, Vega/delta)   Permalink 3:24 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jeff Holman, the incompetent risk manager who went after Antifragile is now w/ @SentientDAI in “intelligent”systems   Permalink 5:33 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@MarkVirag Wow this is good   what @nntaleb would call “no skin in the game” Permalink 2:53 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Sunk cost fallacy is only fallacy for specific series of independent bets. @rorysutherland @alexvgeorgiev @TriversRobert @jasonacollins Permalink 5:18 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Boris IV, let’s end the cold war and focus on the Wahabi cancer.   Permalink 5:16 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb These pple, like 538, are not getting that a poll is an *estimator*, hence tracking error pulls it towards 50%. @tomgg @zhaep @neilchriss Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Math du jour: nesting functions for iterated logarithms, the perfect concave but unbounded Permalink 4:56 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Olympics: Greek ideal of ἀρετή, at human scale. Circus: exploitation of deformities, unscaled Current Olympics: exploitation of deformities! Permalink 3:23 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pierre de Jean Olivi, 13th Century.   Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Block someone logically defective w/low-self esteem & you have an overactive hater for life: cheapest possible advertising money can buy. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I wish someone could spot an error in the paper. Getting worried as presenting it in 3 weeks!   Permalink 3:30 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@Trader_Moe Taleb has shown it takes only a tiny intransigent minority to rule larger culture:   Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb OK, now <3%. [correcting # of Protestants in France rose in past 2 decades] Permalink 6:25 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs, vol 2. @Roman_Latkovic Permalink 6:20 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Never imagined that, in 2016, people selfdefined on the “left” would be in favor of repression, cronyism, lobbies, elitism, &… Salafism ! Permalink 4:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Overconfidence:”I lost money because of my excessive confidence”,Erasmus citing Theognis, Epicharmus Permalink 3:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ most erudite men of all time   4th is Cath   Permalink 2:30 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb FactTduJour: 3 out of the 4 most erudite Frenchmen in history: Casaubon, Scaliger, & Bayle were Protestant. Protestants today<1% of France. Permalink 2:17 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Weightlifting is not for thin people. Overoptimized for weight, hence fragile! @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 2:13 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Psychological findings that are nonBS have to be #LindyEffect compatible Permalink 1:58 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Saudi approach: hire a PR firm to “improve their image” rather than just evolve Like Monsanto Anyone interested in perception will go bust Permalink 3:59 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I would stop actually later, at the French Moralists (La Rochefoucault…). See Elster for catalogue. @rorysutherland Permalink 3:47 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The bet: if psychological finding is NOT in the classics <Montaigne, it is not real. Cog disson was in Aesop. #LindyEffect @rorysutherland Permalink 3:43 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Notes on one of Elster’s books. He is the MAIN social science thinker; gets Lindy Effect @avermeule Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Yemen, unlike Saudi Barbaria & Syrian “rebels”, does not have a PR firm in DC. Journos are told what is important.   Permalink 2:56 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indeed, Eastern Aramaic used as “husband.” <= fertility! @alexshd @funtime_bobby Permalink 2:46 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Baal like Adon (=>Adonis) interpreted as “Lord” in Canaanite. Baal Mammon, Baalat Gebala… “Baal shem tov” = Lord w/ gd name @holland_tom Permalink 2:35 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@CCavafy When they saw Patroklos dead —so brave and strong, so young— the horses of Achilles began to weep. Permalink 6:20 AM – 12 Dec 2014

@CCavafy Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey. Without her you would not have set out. She has nothing left to give you now. Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Dec 2015

@nntaleb The New Fourth Estate is Wikileaks. You don’t mess with the New Fourth Estate. The Old Fourth Estate, no problem.   Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The sicarii were into political assassination, not harming children. @iMetaldog @ayhanusa Permalink 7:17 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The ones on Paganism-to-Christianity I REread is Robert Lane Fox   and Peter Brown’s   @tcoe13 Permalink 6:18 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Another account of early paganism-Christianity:   @tcoe13 Permalink 4:38 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Derivations of how to make and update election forecasts without BS. Trying @WolframResearch new release Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I always block people for Sophistry. Simple allergy. Let me know when a devout Orthodox blows up a bus full of infidel children. @ayhanusa Permalink 3:02 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Salafis preach in schools (incl. in Europe) that Shiites, atheists, pagans, classicists, (often) Christians/Jews are infidel deviants. Permalink 2:37 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb It is NOT racism to discriminate against people dressed according to a sect that discriminates against “infidels”, that is, you. Permalink 2:29 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@lhfang Mike Morrell, CIA director who endorsed Hillary, is literally paid by a Hillary consulting firm for weapons makers   Permalink 6:50 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The “no arbitrage” equality forces the error on binary to ->0 which matchers Brier in discrete 1shots @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlock Permalink 1:26 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This is the rigorous proof on way to make time estimates @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster Permalink 1:23 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Literalism: Few pagans believed in the myths. R L Fox see also Veyne (Skin in the game) Permalink 5:15 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@DrCirillo Experts (?) who rely on PIT estimates to forecast things they do not understand, and @nntaleb debunking them. Priceless and funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has nothing to do with race but dressing like members of a violently intolerant subsect: Salafism @artaphernes Permalink 3:18 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb There is a .00001 correlation between what I said and this headline. Headline editors …   Permalink 2:59 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If you lower false positives, you cause more risks (false negative). Sorry, pol correct pple, but risk is risk.   Permalink 1:42 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris is an energy neutral Permalink 1:30 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Levantine: ana/inté/inté/hu/hi/nihna/into(n)/into(n)/hinné/hinné. Note é @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:51 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The basics: nun used in NW Semitic as in Levantine. @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby Permalink 12:45 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Levantine has the same verb forms as Aramaic   @candela3paz @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb No, Levantine is from older source than Arabic   @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:05 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Great news: Arabic writing is starting to vanish from Christian areas in Lebanon. A cop had “POLICE” on his Permalink 10:37 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb You are NOT getting that your Brier is a Norm L2 distance minimizer. Stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. @PTetlock Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Completely wrrrong. The norm L-2 distance is MINIMIZED by lowering estimator variance, Hence my method Permalink 7:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless! Permalink 7:24 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris: a school named after a high school dropout; rebellious poem on the wall. Did they notice the contradiction? Permalink 3:16 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jet Lag: Proved that mean rises for ALL power laws when alpha stochastic, discussion w @financequant, Permalink 1:10 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) More Permalink 12:34 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to Permalink 12:26 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea Permalink 12:23 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A volatile spot makes the binary⇩↑ .50 (4m expiration) to ↓vol of binary (metaprobability) @Chris_arnade. Kapish?   Permalink 2:06 PM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The child of jet lag: how uncertainty makes violence worse, supplement to paper w @DrCirillo (with errors…) Permalink 12:24 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes) Permalink 3:12 PM – 6 Aug 2016