Tag Archives: Lebanon

Tetlock, Propagandists, Lebanon, #IndiaEconomicConclave, Villages, Pinker, TENURE, J’ACCUSE, #RiadPonzi, Bret Weinstein, #Localism, GMOs, Arabists, Aramco, Lebanon

On the Statistical Differences between BinaryForecasts and Real World Payoffs (pdf)
The Beirut Banyan EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon (audio, Soundcloud)

@nntaleb BS Busting Showing how ~50 years of psychologists/decisiontheoristas claims that people “irrationally” “overestimate tails” are unrigorous; how being a “good forecaster” means nothing,etc. Some (e.g. Phil the rat @PTetlock) won’t like it Full version at https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/STDMM5E1fT”>  pic.twitter.com/STDMM5E1fT Permalink 6:25 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Mediocre minds are outraged by small insults but passive, subdued, and silent in front of very large ones. ” – From Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 4:31 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) I had a bit of a lucky start to my day today seeing this thread. Nassim’s solution – though a solution in a tweet! – is a terrific lesson for calculus students as it is a fantastic use of both the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and also infinite series. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1207621312006574081   Permalink 3:27 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/LeBjHvSS0y Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/8LkjS7O7oZ Permalink 2:16 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb MATH PUZZLE DU JOUR. For my trip back from India. pic.twitter.com/s9StRGpDZ3 Permalink 3:09 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Modern dialects called “Arabic” do not descend from “Classical Arabic”, but both they and Fus7a share a common parent; Fus7a appears to be larely manufactured by a bunch of scholars. It is like mistaking your cousin for your grandfather. https://twitter.com/PhDniX/status/1207431607369502721   Permalink 3:01 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This is, scientifically, fraud. I mean, really fraud. https://twitter.com/WDavidHill/status/1206518159873851394   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Kids get that Antifragile = Convexity. Social scientists can’t get it. https://twitter.com/MamanLunettes/status/1207378173106806786   Permalink 11:18 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb He did not get skin in the game. It is filtering. So many people discuss ideas from books they haven’t read. — h/t @imleslahdin https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1207319434957918209   Permalink 9:06 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@marco_m_alves Localism is not “peace on earth” as it creates much more “inconvenient’ day to day (corruption is more visible, disputes are direct, etc). But it’s the trade-off for avoiding system-wide collapse. Permalink 11:17 PM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Granted! https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1207011658884960258   Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb My former student is correct to bring me into line. Propagandists are unconditional in their support, never nuanced, even with the most eggregious actions. And thet are eventually caught. Like now. https://twitter.com/Mo_Hrmz/status/1206972693737857024   Permalink 8:45 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE EAST-MED PHILOLOGY “Spice”, μπαχαρικό (Bahariko) in Greek, بهارات (Bharat) in Levantine (not so much in Classical Ar), and baharat in Turkish originate from the old name for India: Bharat. Simply, the Med had no spices, only herbs. Permalink 8:37 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@yzilber Confusion can help learning https://news.nd.edu/news/confusion-can-be-beneficial-for-learning-study/   @nntaleb will like this study (2012) Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The way to do it. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/12/15/lebanon-tax-strike-wedeman-pkg-vpx.cnn?fbclid=IwAR1kyuv87g2pke9Y17GSvXyAdRINMPBKAKzmqxoO2stzjUi8dyoxS5iHIyA   Permalink 5:50 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb How to rescale distances on PCA maps for genetics. @WolframResearch Mathematica Code with verification pic.twitter.com/cVfRKS0Y9Y Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will give it a second look. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1206713742030860288   Permalink 2:30 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@CCavafy “But most incomparable / of all, Antioch boasts that she’s a city / that’s been Greek since Ancient times” – C.P. Cavafy, “Greek Since Ancient Times”, translated by @DAMendelsohnNYC #poetry #cavafy #Greece pic.twitter.com/8kuwmOY8ww Permalink 5:05 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:04 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam New paper “An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and its Applications”–“assumes only a high school mathematical and scientific background, so that it may be accessible to … anyone who is interested in systems and society” https://necsi.edu/an-introduction-to-complex-systems-science-and-its-applications   Permalink 4:45 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #bureaucracy Permalink 8:50 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb These pseudo-analysts don’t get it. The majority of French & British voters had a yuuuugely favorable opinion about De Gaulle & Churchill respectively but still voted them out of office right after the war ended. https://twitter.com/mashabani/status/1203316176740327427   Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you hear “X is incompetent in spite of “elite” education”, you should interpret as “X is incompetent *because* of “elite” education” (Wittgenstein’s Ruler) https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/1206181699765309441   Permalink 4:16 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@Nvdwaa Rereading antifragile, my 1st encounter with @nntaleb after about 4years. Discovering depth I missed/ didn’t appreciate 1st time around. Amazing, life-changing stuff. pic.twitter.com/BVzeRvhXSC Permalink 9:07 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie [correcting bad link] Exploring Markov chains and Martingales with kids – a project inspired by @gregeganSF @nntaleb and @octonion https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/12/14/33355/   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:50 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb His wife left him. https://twitter.com/geoffdporter/status/1205848006089695233   Permalink 5:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Bad way to visualize information, in the absence of scaling/size. If Rome/Papal States, Istanbul, Beirut were countries, They too… The web teaches people to become fools a la social scientists. https://twitter.com/arcgreek/status/1205500038706802691   Permalink 5:01 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Brutal honesty and intolerance to BS brings new friends. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1205616820612292608   Permalink 4:24 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Decorators design to impress other decorators. In the MEA lounge, the electric plugs are out of reach, low on the ground, with the cover opening upwards ; impossible to plug the charger unless you lie on the floor. @skyteam please tell these idiots. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/mBlfV1TyZo Permalink 2:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@DavidGibbons “Every plane crash makes the next one less likely, every bank crash makes the next one more likely.” From Antifragile. Maybe my favorite @nntaleb quote – certainly a most important insight. We have built antifragile things but banking is not one of them. Permalink 1:12 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@LieraMarco Will he ever invite real people (i.e. plumbers, taxi drivers, accountants, etc.) to speak at the @wef in Davos? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1205099302676291585   Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@ETNOWlive Tell us what is the #Nifty return this decade in the comments section and get a chance to win a signed copy of the latest books by @MarkMobiusReal, @SadhguruJV, and @nntaleb. #IndiaEconomicConclave #IEC #quiz #IEC2019 pic.twitter.com/AOKkXnSqpn Permalink 12:29 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Liars announce that they are saying the “truth”, without anyone asking them; shills claim they are promoting it. (Remember that “Pravda”, the Soviet organ, meant “truth”) pic.twitter.com/irpjNgra7g Permalink 2:27 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Auditing Mathematica’s conventions pic.twitter.com/5Qfdh2olcg Permalink 2:07 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Which explains why there cannot be such a thing as a global village: you build stronger bonds by meeting one person 5 times than by meeting 5 persons once. pic.twitter.com/7zO4MQwyUl Permalink 1:06 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 2) Do you live in a village? Simple trick: how many familiar faces do you encounter daily in your surroundings? Permalink 12:14 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Karagoz/Karakoz in Lebanese https://twitter.com/KBBlack_/status/1204834468822949888   Permalink 12:04 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I never live in cities. Only villages. #localism https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1204675247879929856   Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Another person I thought was revealing truths turns out to be a shill. Disgusting. https://twitter.com/veravanhorne/status/1204771551511547905   Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Turns out that what I called the “Karamata point” and the “Karamata Constant”, while obvious, didn’t have a name. Was told Kara-mata was “black eyed” in Ottoman Greek (Kara black in Turkish, Matis eyes in Turko-Greek) pic.twitter.com/Y0s26R7It0 Permalink 5:23 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Presented 3 short papers. Turns out this result (and 2 others) are unknown. pic.twitter.com/KrZOzlxfWr Permalink 5:18 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile The ‘slow earthquakes’ that we cannot feel may help protect against the devastating ones https://phys.org/news/2019-12-earthquakes-devastating.html   Permalink 5:02 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (3/3) I learned these ideas thanks to @nntaleb and @octonion when they were discussing another famous “word” problem – the COVFEFE problem in 2017: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/the-most-interesting-piece-of-math-i-learned-in-2017-the-covfefe-problem/   Permalink 3:31 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Eindhoven Workshop on Heavy Tails, with the usual suspects https://www.eurandom.tue.nl/event/workshop-heavy-tails-2/   Permalink 2:53 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@LaurentMartinez Sometimes you’re so obnoxious that I’m really considering muting you. But you so don’t give a f**** and are so uncompromising with (mostly) insufferable a-holes, that I have to admit it makes you a rare and valuable occurrence in this world. Permalink 1:47 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Pinker is not aware that he is promoting my own work: one of the books is plagiarism of the ##Incerto https://fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1204127384817033216   Permalink 1:34 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Disagreement: #Lindy requires nonperishability but not all nonperishable is #lindy (nonperishable can be memoryless, with constant expected remaining life). Lindy = power law NonPerishable usually exponential. @ProfSteveFuller Here formalizing Lindy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1146214203574968322?s=20   https://twitter.com/ProfSteveFuller/status/1199595280565440512   Permalink 12:20 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Trying to define RIGOROUSLY what is and what is not Racism in PRINCIPIA, away from the verbalistic. Some surprising results. For comments pic.twitter.com/qTNU63hPW5 Permalink 12:12 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The saying “lniqua numquam regna perpetuo manent” gives me hope. #Lindy #LebanonProtests #IraqiProtests, etc. Permalink 11:33 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb TENURE IS A TRAP After 30 y tenure in a pseudoscience w/citation ring (socialscience),pple can’t do anything in the real world Unskilled Labor! If Universities can’t take away your tenure, they can make your life miserable,as w/bigot @erasmuse. Like the brother in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1198329665078857729   Permalink 3:34 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “There is no more unmistakable sign of failure than that of a middle-aged man boasting of his successes in college.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:24 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Probability Proof Du Jour From the “Competitive Mathematics” FB page pic.twitter.com/gqI3BPTE7q Permalink 2:04 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb More confusion: Mathematica has two techniques. Dot product for normalized vectors is same as covariance (hence 3 and 1 are same). Which method is used? pic.twitter.com/R9ZulSWR8C Permalink 1:37 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Note that I blocked people who polluted the thread Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, some help. I have a question about conventions with PCA maps. pic.twitter.com/8KxAbkkDwa Permalink 9:38 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@imleslahdin Why I’m excited about Technical Incerto. Understanding tails & “shadow moments” is crucial in when your algorithm relies on randomness, which is the BEST way we have for the hardest problems ever (NP-problems). I’m not even talking about big data & ML/AI (go to #RWRI for that). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1203294669117022208   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kEA0VxgxRf”>  pic.twitter.com/kEA0VxgxRf Permalink 9:10 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Learned that just as the Latin hard “c” becomes a soft affricate /t͡ʃ/ in Italian (Ciao), in S Mesopotamian dialect ك becomes تش Other shifts:ق hard g in Muslim (vs Jewish/Christian) Bagdadi (qeltu vs gilit group)& ء in Levant https://www.instagram.com/tv/B5pvFhjHbZL/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DR0BlbACVt”>  pic.twitter.com/DR0BlbACVt Permalink 6:53 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JT_ZLC I am suggesting a minor change to the front cover. pic.twitter.com/93hzaGcN7g Permalink 6:39 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Almost. The statistical version of the asymmetry: to confirm safety (trader didn’t blowup), n =1000 could be insufficient, to disconfirm safety, n=1 (trader blewup) is sufficient. My technical version of the asymmetry is by examining the Law of Large Numbers under fat tails. https://twitter.com/sunnyrekhi/status/1203505476958220290   Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JonathanShedler This is why “evidence based therapy” research always seems to involve treatments most people don’t want and most practitioners don’t practice. Research designed to impress journal reviewers and grant reviewers, not provide what patients need. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1203128659806171138   Permalink 3:22 PM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb J’ACCUSE Depositors in #LEBANON being stiffed! 1-Payment to Eurobond holders, NOT to depositors, & Not enough $$ for fuel imports 2-Depositors should OWN the banks since default! 3- #RiadPonzi is in denial, must be replaced/supervised Must suspend CEDRE! @Jad_Ghosn @EHSANI22 Permalink 7:51 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS, Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Technical Incerto, I) is done. My 7th book. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Should be available in hard copy first Q 2020 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/J8cioGrEw8″>  pic.twitter.com/J8cioGrEw8 Permalink 4:46 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Med Again! https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1203280222642221057   Permalink 4:18 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The eugenics crowd has been after since the when I showed the IQ thingy to be a fraud. You can tell at the reactions of a bunch of people. https://link.medium.com/ehxNGI2Zc2   Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Time to do my “told you so”. You guys are 1 year too late. @Clairlemon et al are nothing but a cover for eugenics. https://twitter.com/rvawonk/status/1202719842605903872   Permalink 2:08 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The true left gets it. Democrats are getting Donaldo relected. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1202977556292624386   Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The nightmare https://twitter.com/brianabeythomas/status/1202964879067336709   Permalink 10:14 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Thread on Ergodicity & @ole_b_peters work 1) If you optimize on multiperiod payoffs you avoid an absorbing state(0), because multiplicative. ANY such optimization will avoid absorption, not just LOG 2) Growth is a nice summary parameter. 3) Avoiding absorption does same. Permalink 6:48 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb [For those who don’t get it: the point is that some friends are worse than enemies] Permalink 4:54 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Friends, the M5 competition (@spyrosmakrid ) is about inventory prediction using ML or other. I suggested predicting maxima & minima on top of the usual. While extrema are useful in trading (“never cross a river that’s on ave 4f deep”), are they with inventories? Permalink 4:37 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@bmiloy Attending one of these exposes and clears a lot of BS from your thinking. You think you understood the Incerto, maybe even read it a few times, and then you attend and discover that you were missing something essential. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1202700539886260246   Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see: The hidden moments for a probability distribution. The Lucretius problem in #TheBlackSwan. (Turns out explicit result below is new.) Inspired by a mistake made by that idiot @WGoetzmann (who sees #TheBlackSwan as an “airport book”) . pic.twitter.com/IRU9nlgkNa Permalink 3:03 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we gave in. Thanks to @Firsou we have a new #RWRI website http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 1:25 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Clive James, RIP My notes on his book *Cultural Amnesia* pic.twitter.com/Z8dcT5RjSy Permalink 12:28 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb With friends like me you are guaranteed to never need a single enemy. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1202574156971331585   Permalink 10:27 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@aleksndr_r “A book review can be far more descriptive of the reviewer than the book itself.” —@nntaleb That you can learn as much about the source of information as its object is one of the most helpful principles I’ve come across recently. Permalink 9:39 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@CIELivestock1 Raffael Zanoli @UnivPoliMarche tells @iSAGE_H2020 #sheep industry mtg in #Wetherby of @nntaleb concept of #antifragility. Beyond #resilience, resulting from challenges in the environment making you more #robust to future challenges. Applies in #farming AND #marketing! pic.twitter.com/HuSPXRRO3v Permalink 9:25 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi has reigned over 7 prime ministers, 4 presidents, a dozen finance ministers. If a single person is the perpetrator, it is him. He is the cancer. PS Riad, your “friends”’s smear campaign against me is equivalent to draining the Mediterranean with a teaspoon. https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1202594727444520966   Permalink 6:57 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will be involved in this project with a formal status as “friend”. Hopefully expand it to “The Great East-Med (Graeco-Phoenician) BS-debunking School of Statistics”. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1202527792027574273   Permalink 4:45 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you encounter Pinker style careerism, remember the following. A book (or a work of scholarship) is something that is read 25 years after publication. What happens in the 25 years doesn’t count. The rest is a combination of noise, promotion, hype & resumé building. #Lindy Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@spyrosmakrid At the Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia we have founded the MOFC (The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center). Its purpose to Advance the Theory and Practice of Forecasting through competitions, conferences, publications and forecasting courses. @polemitis pic.twitter.com/zBGMuGK8D2 Permalink 1:59 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@BDufournet My wife and I had the same idea for Christmas for each other… @nntaleb’s masterpiece in the deluxe edition! Received today. A very nice present. pic.twitter.com/44yvVZFWcU Permalink 2:53 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb By free I mean morally free, free to be ethical https://medium.com/incerto/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb   Permalink 1:58 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Yes! James Scott! Permalink 7:49 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you ask the facilitator of a Ponzi scheme to fix the Ponzi. Salame needs adult supervision. https://twitter.com/adibchristian/status/1202233307729018880   Permalink 7:04 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 1) The judgment of the free is the only one that counts. The rest has some element of propaganda. 2) Very, very few people are free. 3) In general, the more prominent the person, the less free. The janitor is freer than the politician/CEO. 4) Purity requires freedom. Permalink 6:36 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@OrtolanMagazine This is insanely fucked up and people aren’t talking about it enough at all #crispr #china #gmo @nntaleb https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/dec/04/china-gene-edited-baby-experiment-may-have-created-unintended-mutations   Permalink 5:48 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Aside from BS Vendor extraordinaire @saPinker misrepresenting his own claims (see other posts), @DrCirillo & I have shown that interarrival times betw. large wars >100 y hence 1) his claim on post WW2 is statistical noise 2) he doesn’t get what statistical noise means #BSVendor https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 5:12 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY of PROBABILITY Latest with @DrCirillo now on ArXiv https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.00277.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/84RBISEmiz”>  pic.twitter.com/84RBISEmiz Permalink 4:09 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:23 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What drinking with @EmanuelDerman looks like. And that’s before the drift into Spinoza. #OnlyinNewYork pic.twitter.com/bvLLy9P5fh Permalink 4:18 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Wealth Inequality Among Snails https://www.improbable.com/2019/10/02/wealth-inequality-among-snails/   Permalink 1:26 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb FAT TONYISM More effective & less risky to improve food distribution than produce GMOs/GoldenRice (food costs=60-94% distrib/decay), but not to *scientism*merchants It costs millions to make train rides more pleasant, billions to make trains just a bit faster, but not to… Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@Prof_BearB I think someone proposed it. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iE4zEmoon1″>  pic.twitter.com/iE4zEmoon1 Permalink 6:19 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon https://youtu.be/sGcyA0yB4nY   via @YouTube Permalink 5:55 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The bullshitter still doesn’t get that BOTH claims have been debunked plus his shoddy statistical claims! https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 1:54 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@DrCirillo Another sophistry. As usual. Given that what he claimed has been shown not to hold, he tries to change his claim ex post. Verba volant, scripta manent. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 1:32 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The end of Behavioral Economics https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1201547183079772160   Permalink 12:06 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@sean_a_mcclure The general public gets swept up in the labeling of others as “anti-science” without understanding how science actually works. The willing and able are now stepping forward to call BS and set the record straight. I can’t think of a better service to society. #science https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1201458485961117698   Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Statistics is a BS detector, not a BS generator.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Yii889CrUQ”>  pic.twitter.com/Yii889CrUQ Permalink 9:13 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The president, cabinet, central bankers & bankers should be locked 24/7 in a war room/control center discussing options & working hard instead of engaging in courtesy meetings & focusing on shooting messengers. http://www.dailystar.com.lb//News/Lebanon-News/2019/Dec-02/496664-aoun-calls-for-prosecution-of-those-who-spread-bad-publicity-about-national-currency.ashx#.XeU7R5tCwxM.twitter   Permalink 8:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@Firefly_fan Do you know Nassim that every smear campaign (the one that you suffer too) of Monsanto et al about Golden Rice is based (ENTIRELY) on a fallacy? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6760066/pdf/12992_2019_Article_495.pdf   Table 1. “Misleading Summaries” subgroup “Absence of evidence as evidence of absence”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The author of the article on golden rice used by @sapinker was running a bank that blew up spectacularly; asking him for advice on tail risk is like putting a drunk driver (while drunk) to monitor road safety. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1201504177286983685?s=20   Permalink 6:48 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Sorry, error: I carelessly mistook @mona_harb_ (who tried -and failed— to dump on me) for @mona_fawaz. Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics I didbn’t even catch that this is via @quillette. of course. They know the best genes for humans to have AND know the best genes for plants to have eugenics quillette. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   Permalink 4:37 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics Same language as last time, copied off a PR sheet I guess Soulless @sapinker Steven Pinker again smears those scientific doubt and reasonable concern for risk, uses the image of dying children to push his agenda https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   Permalink 4:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Localism implies opposition to US interventionism in world affairs (Syrian “rebels”, Saudi Barbaria-Yemen, etc.) It does not mean supporting interventionism by OTHER regimes. Most shills & low-intellect propagandists promote false dichotomies:”if not green, it must be pink”. Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Although activist @mona_fawaz has tried to dump on me (& got ran over),I MUST fight for her against the smear campaign by fascist propagandists that she’s a “foreign agent” #localists want to run their own lives, not be trapped into US-Iran-Israel-SA globalism #Skininthegame Permalink 3:59 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you ask what pple in #Lebanon want: basic amenities, jobs, education, clean water, transportation, power, etc. #Localism. Not geopolitics US-Iran-Israel-SaudiArabia. Fascists Khalek et al are shilling ag a technocratic government on grounds that it won’t globalize. Permalink 3:26 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RISK MANAGEMENT 101 we teach students: What @sapinker says is 1) wrong, 2) dangerous, 3) unrigorous & primitive *scientism*, with probability approaching 1. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/gb53Lao2u3″>  pic.twitter.com/gb53Lao2u3 Permalink 3:09 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam The idea that Golden Rice is a useful or necessary solution to nutrition problems does not recognize many alternatives and does not include an understanding of risk. This is a terribly misguided and unscientific frame of reference. @nntaleb https://necsi.edu/precautionary-principle   Permalink 7:50 PM – 1 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) Sharing some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas about probability distributions with kids https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/12/01/sharing-some-of-nassim-talebs-ideas-about-probability-distributions-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 9:07 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @dan_azzi Permalink 7:37 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @JadChaaban is also a target of the smear campaign. I can hire someone to identify the source. After the Monsanto episode we got to know exactly how these are done. Also easy to sue people involved in the story in NY or LDN if they cover up for losses. https://twitter.com/JadChaaban/status/1200863656843661313?s=20   Permalink 6:55 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@digvijoy_c Someone wrote: “Dear Mr Taleb, I like your work but I feel compelled to give you a piece of advice. An intellectual like you would greatly gain in influence if he avoided using foul language.” Answer: “Fuck off.” From @nntaleb facebook page. Holiday season gold from Nassim. Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Also there are mechanisms to sue Global Finance magazine for giving awards to #RiadPonzi, give naive investors & savers a false feeling of security. Also we need @petelx60 to help us investigate how @LebAmUniv gave him an award (before his days). Permalink 5:50 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Signs both #RiadPonzi & Bankers Assoc. hired 2 PR firms to whitewash their image/smear critics including @dan_azz, @Nasser_Saidi. Not successful in the West (nobody is stupid) but # circulating videos in Lebanon. Some shills: @jassemajaka cc:@Jad_Ghosn #lebanonprotest Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb At the “meeting”, #RiadPonzi exhibited a lack of financial proficiency. He said “We issued CDs at 6%, they are now at 20%, so we have profits.” Imagine a CEO saying: we issued bonds/stocks, their value collapsed, we make yuuge profits if we bought them back 50% lower! Permalink 4:57 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RETROSPECTIVE BIGOTEERING 1) no law is retrospective 2) you cannot blame people of a violation of a moral rule (or law) if they could not be possibly aware of such a rule, if such rule came AFTER their actions. This is similar to the retrospective distortion in #TheBlackSwan. Permalink 4:35 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Scale analysis is not mine, elaborated by many many scientists. My contribution is the link between nonlinearity of response, scale, stability and, mostly, the probabilistic implications. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1201115448529563648   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/MHDcn8tLex Permalink 5:37 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:08 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb An instance of retrospective bigoteering. Soon he will go after The Hamurabi code. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/inertialobservr/status/1200642160648835072   Permalink 3:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Most people scientists, academics, journalists & other BS vendorss write, talk about, & make claims about what they know. My specialty (Incerto & Technical Incerto) is to show what we don’t know. I stand current approaches to knowledge on their head. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1200798073884233728   Permalink 1:09 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Corrected. @birdxi1988 pic.twitter.com/HJ96ZBuUvX Permalink 12:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I am wrong Permalink 9:48 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb New picture. Need to change every decade. Permalink 8:54 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb They reposted the conversation without the edits. https://twitter.com/beirut_banyan/status/1200038885125951490   Permalink 8:49 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see:The hidden moments for a probability distribution. What we called shadow mean in paper with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/rnRBU9YwKn Permalink 7:25 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb By depositors I mean small depositors who put their life savings in the hands of #RiadPonzi Permalink 12:37 PM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I boycott @LOrientLeJour but Triangle have been extremely good at exposing the Ponzi scheme https://twitter.com/think_triangle/status/1200334111820460032   Permalink 10:21 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@idrissaberkane Il y a des gens qui sont prêts à se créer six comptes pour troller @nntaleb mais vraiment twitter est devenu complètement fou pic.twitter.com/Bd6R3KvnKE Permalink 8:27 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Le @dr_l_alexandre est un charlatan. Aucune etude genetique sérieuse sur le sujet. Du bidon. Voir https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/Ripamontialbert/status/1200129226269233152   Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is the classical question: “Where are the Customer’s Yachts?” Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A meeting in the Presidential Palace includes a representation of the banking sector. Where are the representatives of depositors? Where? Where? #LebanonProtests @Jad_Ghosn @dan_azzi pic.twitter.com/M3MvlXCGRT Permalink 6:05 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb India Economic Conclave Dec 16-17 https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1200350486441811968   Permalink 2:57 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Immense gratitude for this country, its people, its system. Permalink 3:09 PM – 28 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – @nntaleb https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 11:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@vtchakarova I use the occasion of #HappyThanksgiving to extent my special gratitude and big thanks to @nntaleb for giving me the unique chance to be part of his amazing #RWRI family this year and to grow immensely as a human and as a spirit! #SITG Permalink 10:39 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A mistake I made. My specialty is nonlinearity of responses. Complex systems have scaling issues from nonlinear responses. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1200048576900018178   Permalink 10:08 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The precautionary principle.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit http://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books http://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PLe4nprr56″>  pic.twitter.com/PLe4nprr56 Permalink 9:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I solved the quandary: I drink only American wine for Thanksgiving. Yet I want something Lebanese. Compromise: American wine made by Diaspora Lebanese. pic.twitter.com/7OPxpti5sV Permalink 7:59 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb As with IQ “regressions”, all it takes is one single point to change the story. #FooledbyRandomness https://twitter.com/crispakarati/status/1200025405354328065   Permalink 6:04 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@BitcoinDu Find out more about bitcoin in Lebanon at http://BitcoinDuliban.org   Permalink 5:35 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@beirut_banyan We’re joined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb for Episode 81 of The Beirut Banyan, and we discuss the October 17 Revolution and Lebanon’s modern history within the context of complex systems and local structures. Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/thebeirutbanyan/episode-81-nassim-nicholas-taleb-local-structures-for-lebanon   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/My8F6fGN8Y”>  pic.twitter.com/My8F6fGN8Y Permalink 5:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lebanese Bitcoiners Show How to Talk About Crypto At Thanksgiving https://www.coindesk.com/lebanese-bitcoiners-show-how-to-talk-about-crypto-at-thanksgiving   via @coindesk Permalink 3:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The evolution of the reputation of #RiadPonzi https://twitter.com/lukassustala/status/1199949608669106177   Permalink 3:18 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Never mess with other people’s sacred values. Never. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1199458779521331201   Permalink 2:15 PM – 27 Nov 2019

@B4DGETT This time of year, reminded of @nntaleb’s illustrative Thanksgiving turkey problem. pic.twitter.com/EZKxD1AA0f Permalink 11:36 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@georges_ebel “never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep” illustrated @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/hQRQqoOooy Permalink 7:59 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Buy Lebanese products. They need your dollars. Find a store near you. pic.twitter.com/5z6QnBtbS7 Permalink 6:15 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@prakashperuvamb He is a role model precisely because of that . Speaks his mind, doesn’t mince word or tolerate crap, and what he says almost always makes abundant sense … Not ur politically correct ninny nanny type @nntaleb Permalink 5:27 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Chapter on Extreme Value Theory with some results pic.twitter.com/h1XRMTbDxi Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@MarkMulvey My favorite @nntaleb quote, because most people treat math as a means to an end but he treats it like an artisan or musician: as an means to experience. https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1199470412465348608   Permalink 7:14 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I cannot stand phonies, despicable people like @BretWeinstein who act on bad faith. DESPICABLE! https://twitter.com/gallenperry/status/1199450736825917441?s=20   Permalink 2:43 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@dzviovich Wealth Gap is an emergent property of complex systems where agents interact. If system is not hijacked by rent seekers social mobility will follow as market preferences evolve. A very simple economy model will show these properties in action https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1810873   Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:21 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fucking coward: I want to see you try to insult other religions as you did with Christianity & people holding Christian beliefs. Coward and phony! Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Attributing the #Iranprotests to fuel prices is similar to attributing the #LebaneseProtests to a tax on WhatsApp. #Verbalism pic.twitter.com/vskpcNAYOS Permalink 8:24 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@normonics Anyone want to place bets how long it takes @BretWeinstein to apologize for telling Christians to shut up about their beliefs? https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1199189516105314305   Permalink 7:02 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Probability Discovery Du Jour: the invisible tail for a power law distribution doesn’t depent on its parametrization. A closed form derivation of thee “invisible tail”. pic.twitter.com/u1OlFLP75m Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@af_rd_ @BrankoMilan citing the Antifragile work by @nntaleb. Didn’t need more incentives. But it happens to be an interesting read indeed – ‘Antifragile states and global cities’ http://bit.ly/2OJz3zX   @ips_journal Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hezb now experiencing peacetime dilemmas: 1) cannot side with the protests without upsetting Iran 2) cannot use missiles against its own citizens, so militiary power is useless 3) cannot control hooligans harassing demonstrators 4) cannot afford to lose Shiite/Christian support https://twitter.com/hmalla72/status/1199023240380895234   Permalink 12:36 PM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Bible in Lebanese/”NeoCannanite”. https://twitter.com/zaqariyya/status/1198979549045886977   Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1198957709313368064?s=20   Permalink 5:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain extreme value theory: The Fréchet is surprising simple to rederive. pic.twitter.com/9RnRTk84Av Permalink 4:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@gabrielacunac Brillantemente expresado por @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/PDcY6klRgy Permalink 3:52 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Summary of my point https://twitter.com/RomanCabanac/status/1198923387764183041?s=20   Permalink 3:17 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The war on the Christian religion by @BretWeinstein shows ignorance of revelation of preferences, a repeat of what the charlatan Harris is spreading. Religion is NOT epistemic, but functional, precautionary, and #LINDY. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 3:00 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A lunatic… Dangerous… I thought the social planner was a closed problem. https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1198650802107113474   Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Again it is one position to say: “I wish to be with people from my tribe”, it is another one to claim: “I don’t want these people around BECAUSE they are genetically inferior”. This @erasmuse is in that second category which is FAR more dangerous. Permalink 1:13 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. pic.twitter.com/bkOqncjRPs Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. pic.twitter.com/bkOqncjRPs Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Taleb is arrogant. Find out why. Attend #RWRI https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1198574349990715392   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8VDS4FJ8Mq”>  pic.twitter.com/8VDS4FJ8Mq Permalink 1:01 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Taleb #ethics Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb More precise cross-correlations, bounds for transitivity in the Technical Incerto https://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/1196473782191476749   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yWvkoKNC1l”>  pic.twitter.com/yWvkoKNC1l Permalink 4:40 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have scholarships open for Lebanese women, plus Iran, Bolivia, Catalonia, HK, etc. Permalink 4:37 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have 5 scholarships open for Lebanese women. Permalink 4:29 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 4:09 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dan Azzi is invited to get the RWRI certificate. Unlike Harvard degrees, it is not taught by professors, empty suits and bullshitters, but by people/real scientists with skin in the game. https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1197660414663909377   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VJMhme2kRI”>  pic.twitter.com/VJMhme2kRI Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 2) Contrary to what idiots-who-think-in-slogans spread at the tim, Proudhon was not against private property. His central idea is the domination of the state. He was fundamentally someone against the coercion of individuals. https://twitter.com/BzhClair/status/1198547693972246528?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3vfDHLiRZR”>  pic.twitter.com/3vfDHLiRZR Permalink 2:28 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 1) The first #localist is Proudhon. He was both anarchist & federalist, understood the link between distributed power and centralization. “Anarchy is order without power”. He got ran over by Marxists IYIs who fell for Marx’s nonsensical handwaving “scientific” approaches. pic.twitter.com/dnh1mboOe1 Permalink 2:14 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Complex systems #Localism https://twitter.com/justinowings/status/1198072930812530688   Permalink 3:52 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Eric Rasmusen did produce all manner of personal abuse when my piece on IQ, heritability, etc. came out –I was wondering why, since his statistical comments were random. Turns out the fellow has indeed neo-nazi beliefs and tendencies. https://twitter.com/erasmuse/status/1196917954711080961   Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The full Triangle paper is here http://www.thinktriangle.net/extend-and-pretend-lebanons-financial-house-of-cards-2/   Permalink 10:31 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@paulportesi Debt and leverage have a @nntaleb dose-response sigmoid characteristics. Simply said, debt and leveraged is similar to drugs. It can be convex initially but will eventually reach an upper limit where it becomes concave an exponentially harmful. Permalink 10:09 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I expect plenty of factories to be built once #RiadPonzi and his policies are terminated. It took 3 years for Egypt and Turkey to build yuuuge reserves after their devaluation. I will make sure Riad Salameh is remembered as the MOST HARMFUL person in the history of #Lebanon. Permalink 6:46 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Some PR machinery is still trying to make people buy the argument that doubting GMOs is anti-science. In fact it is bullshit like this nonscientist journos such as @kittypurrzog that IS anti-science. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/kittypurrzog/status/1197942231358832641   Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I am optimistic that once the Ponzi stops, we will have a yuuuuuge boom in #Lebanon. Permalink 6:06 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After my USJ talk on #RiadPonzi & Localism a few “economists” went on MTV to explain I was nonsensical & “arrogant”, it was not a Ponzi, Lebanon is different, etc. Triangle explains where it is a Ponzi: + Use new deposits to pay interest to existing depositors rather than invest! pic.twitter.com/0LtlAZsOTb Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Civis Romanus sum The Republic of Koura in Lebanon (Capital Amioun) is closset to Cyprus & Crete. https://twitter.com/andrewidy/status/1198010880824369152   Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our paper in the philosophy of probability, with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/hc4gyy2qXQ Permalink 4:48 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Note I refuse honors and rank & when introduced as a speaker, I allow only one piece of information: Uber ratings of >4.9 Excellent bullet points for my lecktshur on #Localism at LAU New York. https://twitter.com/JacobGnther1/status/1198149271196983296   Permalink 2:38 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The best predictor of a collapse or blow-up => smooth returns” [part 2/2] / co-author @Firsou / inspired by @nntaleb’s #RWRI For more visit http://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books http://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5BkxugmfTw”>  pic.twitter.com/5BkxugmfTw Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@DominikWeil Following his activities in Lebanon closely – if his ideas on #localism and #decentralization of power structures can be implemented there… – provides hope & tailwind for other localist movements around the globe #freecityfrankfurt https://mobile.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1196790333000077312   Permalink 7:58 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The only way one can short it without basis risk is if it lists on the NYSE AND has high volume. Plans to list in the US were cancelled. https://twitter.com/eddyaccu/status/1197891192471588864   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascists anf antilocalists are easily pushed to produce incoherence https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197870058514665472?s=20   Permalink 5:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My approach is not to convince the person but expose publicly his defects in reasoning. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197864991912796160?s=20   Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascist @asadabukhalil wrote the only commentary on my talk on #Localism below The fascist denies local ancestral Lebanese poetry (Zajal) as a literary form. The unmistakable stamp of fascism all across. Particularly in the denial of the notion of scale. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww?view_as=subscriber   Permalink 4:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Start tagging Arabists as “facists” nemesis of #Localism They COERCE you into an “identity” Destroy diversity & force a Medieval language w/purity Stamp out Mediterranean culture in Lebanon, & its character as cultural crossroad Example: antilocalist fascist @asadabukhalil Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@marciadabliu .not that these people would be interested but it seems @nntaleb has demolished the concept of IQ measuring let alone that intelligence could ever be inherited. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   and yes, ooops some many ethical issues involved Permalink 3:15 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb People in Lebanon are not yet used to see a person entirely free who doesn’t give a fuck about his reputation. Permalink 2:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He made the mistake of pathologizing someone, which to me is a yuuuge intellectual violation. He will pay for it for the rest of his life as I find it egregious: that’s what the Soviets did with dissent. Never pathologize. Permalink 2:07 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is NOT squid ink. Just colored pasta. @adam_sajdak https://twitter.com/adam_sajdak/status/1197676208907018241   Permalink 1:57 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or it is quite strange when someone keeps insulting you online, but not in person when they unexpectly meet you in the physical world? In other words talk is cheap online, but costly in real life. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197255332864647168   Permalink 2:12 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics We live in a novel age, no doubt But you have to be blind to believe it is “absolutely” novel Most of what is relevant to us is not new but very old indeed, easy to take for granted I suppose And, what should one “blindly follow”, Bret? The latest trend? https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1197576604563562499   Permalink 1:13 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb From the remarks of the mob @RaniaKhalek is sending my way, there is an ELEMENTARY defect of reasoning both with her & the mob. One can be AGAINST US interventionism yet AGAINST repressive theocracy & AGAINST the massacre of young protesters in Iraq & Iran. Fehménin? Permalink 10:34 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Finishing a paper in philosophy of probability with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/TofruImYBO Permalink 10:15 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics .@TulsiGabbard expressed the need for local-first and regional-based agriculture model last night This is common sense from every perspective *except* for large scale factory-style industrial agriculture corporations and their lobby. Thank you, Tulsi. Permalink 8:47 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Outside an ancestral environment (or a small village), you cannot be both ethical and striving for people to like you. Permalink 8:42 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb OK, confirmed statistically. 100% of @RaniaKhalek posts are propaganda. There is NO information in the posts of the propagandists, since all you see is cherrypicked. Her “journalism” career is done. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1197412341874339840?s=20   Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@Boswall_Jacob For all depositors at #Lebanese banks, @Li_Haqqi and @nizarghanem have created a Facebook campaign to ensure that small and medium account holders don’t foot the bill of the #economic crisis. #لبنان It’s called #لن_ندفع_الثمن – find your bank here: https://www.facebook.com/LiHaqqi/photos/a.759628340890167/1276672349185761/?type=3&theater   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lR6eggnVUM”>  pic.twitter.com/lR6eggnVUM Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I removed from The Black Swan these comment because, at the time, I was stupid enough to listen to editors. “A White Swan not taking place is a Black Swan.” “You look at counterexamples for the usual, verification for the unusual”. https://twitter.com/Heinonmatti/status/1197502130799677440   Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb MODERNISM Before the formation of the Greek Nation-State & Nordic historical manufacturing, Greek “identity” was not built ar. Classical Greece,but Greek Orthodoxy Greek Restaurants, now called “Olympic”, Acropolis, wd have been “Agios Nikolaos”, “Ag. Dimitrios”, “Aya Pelagia” Permalink 3:56 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@jbaksht I bought Incerto, can’t wait to reread all of them. Thanks @nntaleb https://twitter.com/kpaxs/status/1197240014880563202   Permalink 3:55 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dabké Anatolian in origin. East Med imprint. Naples was Neapolis a Greek settlement. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1197281616936067072   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Life is boring if your online detractors freeze in terror when they run into you in the physical world. I saw a nondeadlifting stranger in a state of yuuge terror as I passed by his table, as if he ran into the Loch Ness Monster. Could be from photo the Arabo-fascist @joeyayoub https://twitter.com/Decafquest/status/1195762604796502025   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dUCilXhM0e”>  pic.twitter.com/dUCilXhM0e Permalink 12:48 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I told an assembly of prominent farts in Lebanon, the local establishment: I don’t care about you f*cks, so long as your children are reading the INCERTO. And they are. Permalink 8:19 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon wanted power & glory. He liked flashy victories. Cambaceres who *wrote* the Napoleonic code liked influence. Napoleon lost everything but most of the world uses the Cambareces code dubbed “code Napoléon”. The world is run according to C. Gabish? https://twitter.com/prateekkul/status/1197184716815978497?s=20   Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I respect those who seek influence; never those who seek power. Permalink 7:48 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@JamesMarsh79 i think this proves Nassim’s point about size. pic.twitter.com/fCuYrzuXkv Permalink 7:33 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb Lebanon: From Ponzi to Localism https://youtu.be/53uW9Xd_JRU   Permalink 7:24 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After defending her (benefits of the doubt), I am now nearly certain that @RaniaKhalek is an Iranian regime shill. The Regime is massacring hundreds of youths in Iraq & Iran. It is unpardonable. A shill is always UNCONDITIONALLY on one side of an issue. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1197125109963776001   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ddbxESnPpu”>  pic.twitter.com/ddbxESnPpu Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@Zzeghedrane Localism taking place and shape strongly on the ground instead of in theory Cc: @nntaleb https://twitter.com/kassimchahrour/status/1197079385012133889   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KJseJ0J4ZV”>  pic.twitter.com/KJseJ0J4ZV Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The foundation of the 1/n heuristic is that the law of large numbers cannot be invoked. https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1196957373438578688   Permalink 5:12 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb In other words we get an exponential out of a power law. Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Interesting (and shocking) result. The “missing tail” for a power law follows a thin-tailed distribution. pic.twitter.com/Uh2RR8ikzF Permalink 2:22 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC MYSTERIOUS PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Seems that qariba قارب (small boat) doesn’t come from קָרוֹב قرب, proximity (to coast) but from the Byzantine Greek καράβι (pl.l καράβια) [same root as”crab”] Could the Byz. Greek originate from the Semitic קָרוֹב via Syrian Greek? Permalink 2:03 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb It feels the riots are more likely to succeed in Iran because: 1- Trump did not claim direct credit 2- Little news coverage 3- It feels like it is about time, I mean about time Permalink 12:35 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@HietanenPaavo More shenanigans by Finnish #Antifragile team w/ @LIHF_Living @STrosterud @Heinonmatti. Discussing hunting, Finnish localism and how more @nntaleb’s localism should be planted to Finnish political soil pic.twitter.com/Vywx3JgEne Permalink 11:25 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi These estimates were close. Got new information, the alpha coefficient is stable. pic.twitter.com/hsgpzkZuOY Permalink 9:08 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@VqVoice Our new article is about making good software architecture for hearables, ergodicity, and just a little about Scorsese’s awesome film Casino (with special thanks to @nntaleb and #RWRI ) #technology #startup #softwaredevelopment https://medium.com/the-science-of-conversation/the-casino-problem-and-hearable-software-architecture-5de2730a42ec?source=friends_link&sk=233bfb8ca47514fb669804146b05eba9   Permalink 7:51 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@BrendanJHammer Taking my daily @nntaleb – he nails it here on the proxy wars of couples. #BedOfProcrustes pic.twitter.com/S8VYxYqWBX Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I detect that our movement is killing the old Libertarian and anarchist factions. #Localism https://twitter.com/jed_trott/status/1196791845671653376   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@normonics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1196790333000077312   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hnp4YKByVy”>  pic.twitter.com/hnp4YKByVy Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/mhaffar/status/1196794602994487296   Permalink 6:20 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Case closed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-18/aramco-failure-to-win-foreign-investors-makes-ipo-a-local-event?srnd=premium-middle-east   Permalink 7:49 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@RickKLN Rediscovered my faith years ago when you blocked me on FB. A Christian that didn’t discuss both sides, and could dismiss questions as BS changed my life. One of these years I will attend #RWRI and say thanks in person. Diplomacy is NOT more effective. BS busting is. Permalink 2:18 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A Sheikh in the Beqaa is saying “we can deliver Switzerland of the East” in 20 days. We do not need the central state. https://twitter.com/HsenAndil/status/1196367753436946432   Permalink 2:07 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese are still shocked by my “in your face” blunt, totally unapologetic, uncompromising, no-BS, “he’s incompetent”/”you’re an idiot” approach, esp when I address IYI “specialists” I threw someone w/unsollicited advice “diplomacy is more effective” out of my house. Permalink 2:06 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Very rough statistical estimatess. Wished the banks told us more. Good news for the small depositor pic.twitter.com/WKp6ptnO9J Permalink 1:25 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Key part in PRINCIPIA is that the demarcation left-right has been redrawn by real science, along the lines STATIST-LOCALIST-MINARCHIST When I gave my tawk in Boulder, was told US most localists self-defined as “left”.Super-localist= Libertarian, etc. I prefer the IDIOT-NONIDIOT https://twitter.com/laurentozon/status/1196347126466396162   Permalink 1:23 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I think the haircut can be milder 200k-1 mil, since the bulk is from accounts>1 mil Permalink 1:12 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb There is a problem w/: Short Aramco Long Oil contracts which maturity? Aramco =~ perpetual maturity The front contracts can be much, much more volatile than the back and decorrelate during squeezes. Discussed in one of the #RWRI https://twitter.com/mazen_barbir/status/1196292503743401985?s=20   Permalink 11:39 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Solved half pic.twitter.com/BAJ2Hg9oZv Permalink 4:29 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ (Statistical sleuthing) We know that +1% of accts in #Lebanon own 50% of total, $170 bil +accts <$200K represent $20 bil in total (rough numbers) Assume Pareto distr. How many accounts have > 200K, 1 mil, 10 mil ? What’s the weekly drain from 1000$ withdrawal per acct? Permalink 4:09 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@Firsou Anyone in Lebanon that advocates indebting the country in a similar manner should be treated with extreme suspicion. https://www.africanstand.com/business/china-to-take-over-kenyas-main-port-over-unpaid-huge-chinese-loan/   Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I saw no such posters. My point is that the only way to satisfy Salafis is to give them their own communes. Unless you recommend “killing them all”. https://twitter.com/AliSalaam_DTI/status/1196190174906068993   Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism A crowd starts clapping from one single trigger. Revolutions (1848, #LebanonProtest, Iran, Iraq, Chile, H-K, Barcelona) spread spontaneously, “leaderless”, bec. complex systems work by 1 heuristic: once you find the trigger, you get power law behavior. Hard to reverse. Permalink 2:10 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He said “Tripolis is 10% Salafi, mostly in one neighborhood, & there is no alcohol in the whole place out of fear. You need to either increase the subdivisions or force the sectarians into a secular system that will turn them into terrorists out of resentment.” Permalink 1:50 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism at its best!!! Intoxicated by what is happening in Tripolis (Troblos) Tens of simultaneous ORDERLY discussion groups on constitutional, legal, economic matters Shocked to hear someone telling me “Tripoli shd not be one municipality ” because “minority rules”! pic.twitter.com/kw6Ns9RPmP Permalink 12:57 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Albert Kostanian proposing the equitable haircut proposed on his program: spare small accounts <200K, have a progressive haircut. https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1195895226080120832/pu/vid/480×270/euqLRKy2IEHnjwzB.mp4?tag=10   https://twitter.com/AlbertKostanian/status/1195999663071121410   Permalink 12:47 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@soonaorlater ‘Bitcoin removes [government] from the transaction…They’re trying to ‘ban bitcoin’ because they’re afraid of it. It’s important for us [the Lebanese] from now on to learn about crypto. Our collective intelligence is greater than the state’s’ – @nntaleb https://open.tube/videos/watch/f5813d6f-96d2-4e95-b3b3-a7c6a51abd7f   Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A rioter was explaining the Silver Rule: “Mitl ma bit3omil btet3omal” Permalink 10:03 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Troblos (Tripolis) The epicenter of the Revolution. pic.twitter.com/BFauyzR9CF Permalink 9:56 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@rebeccacollard “From Tehran to Beirut, one revolution that won’t die” Lebanese chanting in support of Iran protests tonight. #LebanonProtests #IranProtests #iran #لبنان_ينتقض pic.twitter.com/V9QydyrU9A Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb II- Also as a bonus you “earn” the country risk since Aramco is located in the Shiite area with an oppressed minority who rightfully believe oil is theirs. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@PZalloua At z Lecture on Localism, Beirut USJ @nntaleb over-filled pic.twitter.com/LADSCuupyj Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I want to be sued for the defamation of #RiadPonzi https://twitter.com/aya_majzoub/status/1194563388266823680   Permalink 6:25 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Pareto 80/20 Estimated share of deposits. I suggest NO HAIRCUT except for acc >500K-1m & progressive beyond. pic.twitter.com/JZxgt5Z8HB Permalink 5:11 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GEORGIA as a model for #Lebanon MOST successful post-Soviet state. -Fired the entire police dept. Over 7 month w/o law enforcement, crime dropped by 60% (they claim) -Anti-corruption gov : most in their 20s, PM 32. 0 tolerance,$20 bribe=>7y jail #كلن_يعني_كلن @fadyasly Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This tweet puts to rest all possible theories of “Aounist tendencies” on my part. I am intransigent & INDEPENDENT. Always, everywhere, w/ no political loyalties even if I am buddies w/@Gebran_Bassil A judge has no friends. There are NO exceptions. #كلن_يعني_كلن #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Full paper (2nd revision) is here https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.11162   Permalink 3:47 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Typo: (“incl Gold” shd be “excl. Gold”), but P/L (actual negative bleed) must me much > $5 bn. Ref: Toufic Gaspard’s note. pic.twitter.com/Ip0a0US4BP Permalink 5:53 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My talk tomorrow. Riad’s Ponzi has been depleting reserves at a yuuuuge rate & borrowing to preserve a harmful “peg”. BDL has liabilities >$86 bil costing huge carry and assets <$40bil (incl. gold) earning <1%. On top of the fiscal deficit Riad’s Ponzi is costing>$5 bil/year https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1194968612940996608   Permalink 5:32 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Revised the paper on the misfitness of binary predictions in real life (and the nonsense in many psychological claims) @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/owoC1TWEjV Permalink 4:35 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our (non naive) precautionary principle page. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 2:27 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb You cannot possibly give Aoun the benefit of the doubt. He is, besides, talking to citizens as if they were his SUBJECTS, or a general’s subordinates. https://twitter.com/Fadi_Ramadan/status/1194740505713807360?s=20   Permalink 2:23 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@normonics There are moments where I almost feel pity on a guy like this But invariably they re-reveal themselves Steven Brainiac Pinker: “If you don’t recite my corporate propaganda you are a mindless killer” What a f**ing piece of trash. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1194449088185454592   Permalink 9:35 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Aoun seems to see the protests as some transitory annoyance –he appears to be irritated by the messenger. Permalink 7:34 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Optionality and the Intellectual Life: In Gratitude for the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI 12 https://www.frontporchrepublic.com/2019/11/optionality-and-the-intellectual-life-in-gratitude-for-the-real-world-risk-institute/   Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Indeed I listened to his interview. That’s what he said. And, what is worse, what he meant. Permalink 6:09 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb President Michel Aoun You said that those who don’t like the government should emigrate. I am doing the exact reverse. I left 43 years ago. I am now in transit to Beirut, just to make sure YOU emigrate. #LebanonProtests cc:@Gebran_Bassil #لبنان_ينتفض pic.twitter.com/yM2vZybypr Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb FORMAL INVITATION. First come first served pic.twitter.com/gNmMthVM5A Permalink 1:27 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Anatomy of a state Ponzi. These are largely accumulated phantom interest earnings. Salameh killed the Lebanese economy. Scammer!!! https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1191790897387769856   Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lesson from Riad Salameh’s incompetence: No central banker should ever try to print money in a foreign currency. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@otrasenda_AC Who else started to DL because reading @nntaleb ? i did https://twitter.com/AntonioSerbia/status/1194295926938095619   Permalink 11:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Owing to the responses, USJ will be using a different amphitheater >500 pple; a new announcement will be posted tomorrow. [Also note that your twitter response is not a reservation but a market assessment; it is still first come first served] Permalink 9:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@PaulSkallas Here’s some Libanius pic.twitter.com/2rQFRZsxeE Permalink 7:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lghtak hiyyé l bt7ké ma3 immak. Msh lghét l sa7ra lb3idé. #Localism #Lma7alliyé Permalink 4:53 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please make sure to confirm attendance. pic.twitter.com/PCB2KoXbsD Permalink 3:31 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My lecture, Friday 6 PM “From Ponzi to Localism” USJ School of Medicine Please confirm on Twitter so we can predict attendance. LANGUAGE: Lebanese pic.twitter.com/aFdVZYf5BX Permalink 1:46 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Yes, formalized here see my paper on Antifragility in medicine https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   https://twitter.com/npandey25/status/1193902978693881857   Permalink 7:22 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@Stefano_Peron kernel Mutual information in cluster matrix. Tnx to @financequant @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9TrhAhdNVR Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb WE MUST STOP SALAMEH NOW! #RiadPonzi Salameh MUST suspend payments on the Eurobond & declare a moratorium. This is outright theft from Lebanese citizens. Send to your friends! Will discuss further on Friday evening 6PM in Beirut #lebanonprotest #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@MauriceMassaad I work in a Leb co. that manufactures steel shelving solutions. 10 y ago we started exporting to difficult countries in Europe, Africa, ME. I personally spent 4 y trying to convince a French company to join us … with success! Now we are not able to deliver. Thank you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you are scared, it is impossible to hide it, no matter how hard you try. Permalink 4:19 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb CURRENT TWITTER ACTIVISM +#Localism & anti geopolitical BS vendors/Arabist fascism), & #lebanonprotest +#RiadPonzi +Pseudostatistics, esp. #Quilletbeciles/Neonazis/Eugenists w IQ claims & other #Alt-Right #Nordicists +#Nudge Finished: #Monsanto, #SaudiBarbaria, #Econometrics Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We don’t have to avoid imports, but the local industry became …just banks. I want #RiadPonzi to pay for it. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh’s Ponzi killed the Lebanese economy: small businesses, anything that could provide exports or mitigate imports has been crowded out. #RiadPonzi #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:50 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh is criminally incompetent. And, of course, a liar. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests https://twitter.com/DailyStarLeb/status/1193854637788545024   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@OddmundGrotte Skin In The Game: Family/Owner-Operated Companies Perform Better? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4303077-skin-game-family-owner-operated-companies-perform-better   Permalink 2:04 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, looking for a Madoff expert to figure out how they finally allocated the losses. #Ponzi #LebanonProtests #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:40 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Wisdom isn’t about understanding things (& people); it is knowing what they can do to you.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #wisdom Permalink 1:10 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Good news that Western newspapers are not reporting on #LebanonProtests. Why? Journos only get geopolitics & this is (still) a localist anti-geopolitical revolt. Trick by BS vendors (eg @tomfriedman) who understand nothing is make things geopolitical. (See #TheBlackSwan) Permalink 12:05 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@justinowings What’s lost in the climate debate? Pushing models and trusting experts _undermines_ the argument for caution. Alternative argument: Set the science aside. Lean on decision making under uncertainty—something everyone understands. “We have only one planet.” So don’t f**k it up. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370   Permalink 7:35 AM – 10 Nov 2019

@Lekapenos 1) I’m going to continue ridiculing the “muh steppe” quasi-Nordicists here: “The genetic basis of a number of physical features of the Yamnaya people were ascertained by the ancient DNA studies conducted by Haak et al. (2015), Wilde et al. (2014) and Mathieson et al. (2015): Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Nov 2019

Silver Rule, Charles Murray, Localism, LEBANON, Mariana Mazzucato, UBI, REITS, I MADE A MISTAKE, Corruption, Peterson, IQ, Stefan Molyneux, Aquavit, Swedes | Twitter

I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals.
Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev.

@TalebWisdom “Complaints don’t deliver complaints, they mostly reveal your weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:49 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hint: The Golden Rule is NOT Lindy. See Isocrates’ rule. https://twitter.com/fpingham/status/1192417188113764352?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Phku3tSBjz”>  pic.twitter.com/Phku3tSBjz Permalink 4:26 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Tonight’s Lecktshur at @LAUNYHQ, I present the problem of the Golden rule: intrusive, vs. Silver Rule. #Localism= Silver Rule, rejection of golden rule. #Lebanon Nobody should ever force you into something “because it is good for them”. pic.twitter.com/gkIpz0ivOk Permalink 4:17 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@Mangan150 Big Food – the largest global food corporations – and what they make. They turn cheap sugar, seed oils, and refined grains into profit. A big impetus behind the vegan push. pic.twitter.com/36OpQRzNFl Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Nov 2019

@thegeforum Nassim Taleb says the hedge fund industry is the correct model for investment management… “dont tell me what you recommend… tell me what you own”. Hedge fund managers eat their own cooking! This from a man not accustomed to giving compliments! pic.twitter.com/0XWhr32TiZ Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating *why* you had to say it. Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/stalingrad_poor/status/1191740023265091584   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Stalingrad_Poor/status/1191740023265091584   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@novak_ma Few months ago I read Fooled by Randomness by @nntaleb and deleted my stock watch app from phone. I checked my stocks just once since then. Feels good. Permalink 9:20 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb BTW, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, just a little reminder that you are an impostor, a fake scholar, a fraud. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640   Permalink 7:46 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When as****les call you “arrogant”, you are on the right side of ethics. https://twitter.com/fadesingh/status/1191740272704573440   Permalink 7:45 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Just found a mistake in my paper concerning the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition (as I had the wrong description): the testing metric is always thin tailed EVEN if the underlying variable is fat tailed. pic.twitter.com/VOwRRgWDUZ Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The incoherent fellow (an ethnic Druze chieftain claiming to be socialist) is a specimen of someone who lives in the wrong century & fails to understand #localism. Pple are more interested in electricity & public services than geopolitical incantations. https://twitter.com/walidjoumblatt/status/1191665339945361410   Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@Decafquest On people who are afraid of cameras by @nntaleb: Relevant today more than ever. pic.twitter.com/647tMUjhmo Permalink 3:41 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “We learn the most from fools … yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:35 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Religious Fundamentalists (including atheist fundamentalists) aren’t just usually morbidly stupid; they can be detected by the total absence of any sense of humor. https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/1191487729407873026   Permalink 5:42 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Localism is the new … communism Permalink 3:28 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Voila. The informal title is “ Localism, Complexity, and busting the BS by IYIs ” Please let me know if you are joining. https://twitter.com/launyhq/status/1191453179629715456?s=21   Permalink 1:26 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@LAUNYHQ Join @nntaleb at #LAUNYHQ 5:30-7pm Thursday evening Nov 7 for a pop-up seminar on Localism and its Application to Lebanon – space is limited, first come first serve, register here https://www.eventbrite.com/e/localism-and-its-application-to-lebanon-tickets-80078479889   Permalink 12:32 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please indicate in this thread if you wish to come. Limited to people involved in the Lebanese situation. This is not about #Localism in general rather its application to Lebanon. (Swiss specialists welcome to join as CH is the model for multiethnic multireligious localism) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1191152050471677953   Permalink 7:02 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb NEW VERSION Principia Politica #Localism https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 4:38 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Naive universalism attracts IYIs and self-righteous psychopaths https://twitter.com/yhazony/status/1191165326249070594   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/98JaV4R7vH”>  pic.twitter.com/98JaV4R7vH Permalink 3:45 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I will present #LOCALISM with respect to #Lebanon next Thursday at 5:30 in New York (before I leave NY for the Republic of Amioun). An application of PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Venue to be confirmed #LebanonProtest Permalink 4:35 PM – 3 Nov 2019

@levelsio “For I have a single definition of success: you look in the mirror every evening, and wonder if you disappoint the person you were at 18, right before the age when people start getting corrupted by life. Let him or her be the only judge; not your reputation” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:57 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I can understand someone defending Iran against Salafis/Saudi Arabia. Never anyone -supporting Iran’s regime in the murders of Iraqi youths -supporting Iranian interference in the #Lebanonprotest, largely by youths FED UP w/their exploitation for geopolitics. #Localism Permalink 8:48 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1190426291515908098   Permalink 6:43 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@financequant To all at RWRI 12, travel safely. It was a pleasure to work with you. Permalink 6:19 PM – 2 Nov 2019

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb summarizing Wolfram’s Principle of Computational Equivalence at #RWRI Any two systems that display non-trivial behavior are just as sophisticated as each other in terms of range of computation (not speed or memory) Deep implications for IQ pic.twitter.com/hK9RZizT1D Permalink 2:15 PM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game @tarekmilleron American Airlines flight attendants stand up to Boeing CEO on 737 MAX https://reut.rs/2qcPPz6   Permalink 11:17 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou Sh3aybiyé at #RWRI ! https://twitter.com/firsou/status/1157585257073430529?s=21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/l36yXHk69X”>  pic.twitter.com/l36yXHk69X Permalink 10:10 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Heinonmatti Hey, @VergilDen is here! Banking system moves from right to left in the network fig –> vulnerability to targeted attacks. [Hope he talks about fighting later.] #RWRI pic.twitter.com/4Q1NvpvtLz Permalink 8:38 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON A bit of empiricism French and UK voters send their “heroes” Churchill and De Gaulle home after the war. Same with Bush the elder after the successful Persian Gulf war. War arguments & “resistance” do not register during periods of peace. #LebanonProtests #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou “It’s unnatural to prepare” I agree 100%. Never prepared for a presentation while I was being told “you need to have notes”. If you need 10 pages of notes why should anyone listen to you? #RWRI Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE LIRA I hear that the Lira is trading at ~ 1675. No worries. A 10% deval. is nothing since the Lira commands much higher int rates than USD. [A holder of LIRA would still be profitable.] Even a 50% deval. would just cover the last few years of interest r differential. Permalink 5:46 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@RubenGao Don’t f*** with the tail! pic.twitter.com/HGw2rBpriO Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@arisroussinos Via Facebook, Oxi Day celebration by the Greek Orthodox community of Damascus, part of the Patriarchate of Antioch, among the last surviving Greeks of Syria pic.twitter.com/BpvGRoIG2V Permalink 2:52 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@birdxi1988 A great day at #RWRI @nntaleb mentioned the link between Kelly Criterion and entropy as well as why tail fitting is more an art than a science! pic.twitter.com/4S1CD5ptxI Permalink 3:57 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@Heinonmatti @nntaleb continues; you can rule out Gaussian distributions by observing one outlier, which would be ~impossible under the Gaussian, but much much more common under another distribution. Another way is to rule out based on physiological / biological bounds. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/UsZFsVHgQd Permalink 2:06 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 An explanation for fat tails from feedback loops: “Abyssus abyssum invocat” תְּהוֹם-אֶל-תְּהוֹם קוֹרֵא Permalink 8:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1189905740825288705   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1189906294725120000   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1189879515511754753   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4/n Problem of teleology: the French Gov. started explicitly an internet (Minital) and failed, what survived is the side effect of a military application. @MazzucatoM: Given the % of GDP by government, what % of innovation came from government? Didn’t gov displace private invt? Permalink 10:06 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/n @mazzucatoM claimed that by attending Princeton high school she attended a “state school”. Scale effect: it’s a school for the residents of the commune, equivalent in its functioning to a private school. Permalink 10:01 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/n Govt bureaucrats are not boring & lacking in innovative drive because they didn’t study strategy in business schools (i.e. because of their education) as claimed by @mazzucatoM, rather boring people tend to work for government. Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 1/n Just listened on way to #RWRI the @econtalker podcast with @mazzucatoM about the government role in innovation “investor of first resort”. Will comment further after I read the book, but found many flaws in reasoning by Mazzucato: Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:25 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/gordo_68/status/1189549437821095936   Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI entropy pic.twitter.com/Hco7vTWOco Permalink 7:19 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 : Robert Frey ⁦@financequant⁩ showing how the “blind watchmaker” (see book by BS vendor @richarddawkins) is improper characterization of evolution and complex systems: a watch half built is jot a watch. pic.twitter.com/iW8rn5XuIm Permalink 6:22 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity.” Permalink 5:12 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo At #RWRI, @nntaleb, @financequant and @normonics are fighting over the best definition of entropy… I don’t see why, given that the best definition is mine : a pseudo-metric of distortion, whose interpretation varies with its generator. Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo Live from #RWRI, @normonics speaking about networks. pic.twitter.com/5Y1jtmVaWq Permalink 11:47 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@coordinatedsync #RWRI pic.twitter.com/wKmsJBVBjG Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The way political parties and militias self destruct. They can use weapons against ISIS and Israel, never against their own constituents. They are done. #لبنان__ينتفض #LebanonProtests pic.twitter.com/hXWWArIwCQ Permalink 5:23 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr Skin in the game also has an intrinsic moral appeal and aesthetic value: Real virtue isn’t cheap. And it turns out skin in one’s own game is a moral minimum; more admirable is skin in other people’s games—­altruism, or what he calls “soul in the game” Permalink 5:16 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr For Taleb, skin in the game is an expression of intellectual virtue. One isn’t actually thinking well if one doesn’t have some sense of accountability for the outcomes of one’s judgments. Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@NonMeek “Take all the risk you want but don’t f**k with the tail.” -@nntaleb That’s one central idea from yesterday’s #RWRI 12 starting session. BOOM Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@visualizevalue — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CJQRGHBkM9 Permalink 7:02 PM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ramses XII Riad Salameh now blaming the messenger for revealing the Ponzi he orchestrated. He is implicitly using the currency as a threat. Instability is preferable to fake Ponzi stability. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/10/28/beirut-lebanon-protests-riad-salame-becky-anderson-ctw-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@StartSocieties Excited for @nntaleb’s next book. Politics framed as a complex adaptive system totally changes political priorities. Let’s focus less on top down solutions, and more on building political systems that enable antifragile problem solving. #localism https://buff.ly/2MQMr5w   Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 pic.twitter.com/aSrEOiRb5V Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 pic.twitter.com/o0rMJZCTb9 Permalink 5:18 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 To all #RWRI folks, wish I could be with you for my 6th visit…if nothing else to ask questions born from my confusion. Have fun! @nntaleb @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @VergilDen @Jed_Trott and the rest of the gang. Permalink 4:07 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes! https://twitter.com/HabibSHaddad/status/1188513669388349440   Permalink 11:14 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1188496796110209029?s=20   Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A kind of network, but not desirable (one dimensional), but beats standard statist hierarchies. pic.twitter.com/XKhytgCC2i Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Beirut Madinati now writing IN LEBANESE! Congrats! #Localism #LebanonProtests https://twitter.com/BeirutMadinati/status/1188469504910774277   Permalink 8:11 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same in Semitic languages: Heb עבודה = work, and עבד 3bd= to be a slave. https://twitter.com/GreekEtymology/status/1188080169292046337   Permalink 7:20 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. It is just to clean up my feed for a dialogue with minimum sophistry. Permalink 6:21 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb coercion Permalink 5:59 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain complexity and spontaneous order, with the “leaderless” Lebanese protests which baffles intellectuals, journos, Arabists, & other ignorant idiots looking for agency. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests https://twitter.com/Limportant_fr/status/1188364771504115712   Permalink 5:58 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Mr Ewan Birney @ewanbirney, sorry but you don’t understand the “quantitative trait” at all. @StuartJRitchie is, practically, analytically, a fraud who can fool someone who doesn’t know what correlation means. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1187712684751511552   Permalink 11:23 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@rationalwalk If UBI was referred to as a negative income tax, which it actually is, and if replaces rather than is additive to welfare, it would be a hugely popular idea across the political spectrum, except among the bureaucrats who’d be out of a job. So they’ll demagogue this to death. Permalink 11:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on STATISM My problem w/”socialists” is that they are statists & intrusive, not pro-welfare. I am for a negative tax (minimum income)= to $$ spent on welfare, saving spending on bureaucrats. But they refuse because they want to DIRECT how ppple spend $ & pay cronies. Permalink 11:03 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb CEMENT IN LEBANON. As in elsewhere, construction is a mafia business. Cement Imports are banned to benefit factories in Lebanon (that employ Syrian workers). Lebanese citizens pay TWICE the price for concrete. The margins are shared by the Kleptocrats. #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 10:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ἔλεγεν δὲ αὐτοῖς ὁ Ἰησοῦς ὅτι Οὐκ ἔστιν προφήτης ἄτιμος, εἰ μὴ ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ, καὶ ἐν τοῖς συγγενέσιν καὶ ἐν τῇ οἰκίᾳ αὐτοῦ. Mark, 6 Never never try anything beyond nudging. https://twitter.com/Crimson28481571/status/1188138692034154498   Permalink 10:04 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb We have so many capable people in the diaspora or ex-diaspora. Based on his track record, I propose @DrFadloKhuri as a member of the next cabinet. Or someone along such a profile. https://twitter.com/AUB_Lebanon/status/1187702093374803968   Permalink 7:32 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@PZalloua At the demonstrations today: “Lebanese Style” pic.twitter.com/w3EnHkGKca Permalink 6:48 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The point is that whatever is not worthless is psychology we already know from elsewhere. The issue: bad science is worse than no science. https://twitter.com/just_1_singh/status/1188082946772619264   Permalink 6:22 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@encrier improvised signs for today’s protest pic.twitter.com/V0uW0QgoMD Permalink 5:17 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People who were previous ashamed of writing in Lebanese feel now empowered to do so! Even Nasrallah spoke in Lebanese. From chaos you get a new order. #ComplexSystems #Localism #BottomUp #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض https://twitter.com/Marcellenassif/status/1188053343253479425   Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Over time for the sake of efficiency & owing to, say, preferential attachment, networks are pulled into the center, from unifom to power laws or maybe lognormal. The one of the left collapses. Centralized systems end up collapsing after pseudostability Explained in #TheBlackSwan Permalink 7:37 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@Cernovich Who are the five wisest living people today, in any country in the world? Permalink 4:34 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The problem with historical reporting is overestimation of agency: narratives require leaders so people are fooled by journos etc. about the exact process. Same overestimation of agency as the one in #fooledbyrandomness #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 2:45 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To the left, how both Nasrallah, his enemies, & journalists think Lebanese Politics should work. To the right is how the protesters proved it works. Complex systems generatee spontaneous order. Progress lies in having NO leaders. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests pic.twitter.com/BBSy7tY91V Permalink 1:33 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The central aspect about the Lebanese riots is that there is no leader. #Localism https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185929047441842177   Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Actually song in Lebanese #Localism https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1187797354268844032   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@normonics @nntaleb look at the traction kanye talking about localism is getting. first, the self and mind, then the family, then the community, gardens, agriculture, etc. bottom up. local first. meme is sticking. Permalink 11:31 AM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntalebbot “What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have; it is what he or she is afraid of losing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 24 Oct 2019

@ronaldchagoury Sooooo well said – I’ve never been able to put my finger on it, and this is so spot on. The resentment class who rarely have skin in the game Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Nobody seems to be getting what I am saying: The assets of the ETFs should be dropping, no? Easy/tight money affects real estate, not just ETF. Permalink 9:28 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@VergilDen And then make changes to the educational system as NNT points out in Principia Politica https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1187393313894273024   Permalink 8:43 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why the REITS are still rallying? Rates are net, net higher. https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1187388458471440384   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8DcX4jkjJS”>  pic.twitter.com/8DcX4jkjJS Permalink 8:40 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Women in #Lebanon https://twitter.com/marcellenassif/status/1187361618541326336   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Don’t miss @nntaleb tonight at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium at the Bern Dibner Library (5 MetroTech Center, Brooklyn, NY). https://bit.ly/2Pe4cNO   #NYUTandonMade @nyutandon https://twitter.com/NYUFRE/status/1187015193294987267   Permalink 7:36 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@mcclay_roman This page from you is framed and on the wall of my little container home. pic.twitter.com/nFCEujPQeo Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I do not wish to be considered for any official position in #Lebanon, so PLEASE remove my name. I prefer to help in other ways. This is the 3rd request. #LebanonProtests pic.twitter.com/xVMUqiB47s Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No, pple in Lebanon & elsewhere aren’t complaining abt “inequality”. The “inequality” is a claimm by the resentment class: journalists, academics (Pikety) & other losers. They want better conditions, governance, justice, accountability & skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 4:17 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@paulportesi Missed this about a month ago. Very interesting data point. @nntaleb has mentioned how using ice for injuries has no scientific foundation if I remember correctly. Align to Nature. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/25/well/move/weights-muscles-cold-ice-bath-weightlifting-exercise-recovery.html   Permalink 11:28 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics will lecktshur at #RWRI about complexity and multiscale properties of “tings”. He has 54 minutes plus 11 Q&A. Raphael, @financequant myself, & others will heckle him (we can stand heckling). https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1187068911986118661   Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) With Modi also no tie (twice). Only exception: the US Senate. They refused to let me testify without a tie, so I borrowed one. pic.twitter.com/bycwHwwFsT Permalink 2:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals. Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev. pic.twitter.com/QV2R1BKDs9 Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb These low-intellect Western Arabists trying to force their 1001 night identity on us don’t know that “merci” came to Lebanon via Turkish, Armenian, & Farsi. The Edward Said “collonial” is Total BS: the French spend 2 decades on a military mandate. pic.twitter.com/hT1JeZkR5n Permalink 1:36 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb What if the army went after the people? Not many options #lebanonprotest https://twitter.com/danifromic/status/1187081376077619200   Permalink 12:35 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A heuristic to pick out a fraudster in #Lebanon, helpful for the selection of new ministers: 1) Wears a tie (hence empty suit), & 2) Speaks on TV in Classical Arabic (a dead Semitic language, similar to shouting in Medieval Latin in the UK Parliament). Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy: the latest format and a #Lindy text pic.twitter.com/algPBvUhdW Permalink 10:49 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@shreyansh_jain1 That’s a foolish statement. The fundamental problem of food supply is food wastage. So it’s a supply chain mgt problem. It’s the other way around here. Organic farming takes more space to patch the quantity of wasted food. You desperately need lessons from @nntaleb. Permalink 9:30 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb How the Lebanese State destroyed the economy [English subtitles, including the “Gabish”] https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1186693565872824321?s=20   Permalink 9:25 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@PZalloua This is how revolutions are made: Lebanese style! pic.twitter.com/aheiKcxIyb Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: If my enemies knew me better, they would hate me even more. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Proud of my Archbishop! Vacuum is better than what we currently have. pic.twitter.com/fuWaGwSBZw Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb, will present “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” as part of the NYU FRE Lecture Series this Thursday at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium. This event is open to the public. #NYUTandonMade Permalink 7:37 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 9- CORRECTION I MADE A MISTAKE Trusting Hariri’s claims of balanced budget. #Lebanon https://www.facebook.com/557151507/posts/10157358489701508?sfns=mo   Permalink 6:50 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@ShipSystem In Norway being a village local means so much for any job even over more qualified person from next village. Have u ever lived in Norway because ur tweet is 100% true. Maybe norwegians socialist on some aspects but super localist on most aspects. Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb BernieSanderistas are trying to promote a fake idea of “Nordic Socialism”. Nordics are 1)Yuugely localists (see #Antifragile on communes); they empowered local lang [Danish, Norwegian, Swedish] & don’t call them “dialects of Nordic”. 2) Are NOT socialists [Soc. failed in 70s] Permalink 5:47 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Fuck, no. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is Arabic. Write to me in Lebanese. Permalink 5:06 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders, stay out of this. You’re like a quack doctor who will kill the patient. The socialist (centralized statism) you are selling is what ruined Iraq, Syria, Egypt over the past 60 y. Lebn has little to do w/”Arab” Spring. Pple are fed up w/ kleptocracy/statism/Arabism https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1186762286507220994   Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard .@HillaryClinton, your foreign policy was a disaster for our country and the world. It’s time for you to acknowledge the damage you have caused and step down from your throne. http://tulsi.to/hillarys-disaster   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/h2fl7ox0Rv”>  pic.twitter.com/h2fl7ox0Rv Permalink 2:56 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR Option traders might recognize some sort of butterfly pic.twitter.com/ca7Y9ZtJxh Permalink 2:25 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@Extrachelle An excellent book deserves a good LaTex bookmark #SITG @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Hz9LxvkmA6 Permalink 10:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain it to them? https://twitter.com/Humanityfirster/status/1186678737862975488   Permalink 9:49 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ducavendish “the larger the central state, the more patronage.” Fucking brilliant. Still, people just don’t get it. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1186633663506780162   Permalink 7:13 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rest in peace, David Freedman. You were the first BS buster in statistics, and trained me to it. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1186642155110043649   Permalink 7:11 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ektrit For anybody with knowledge of actual history like Taleb, #LOCALISM is how the world functioned until mid 19th century, with the implementation of nation-states in Europe. As perspective, the current global setting is just 200 years young out of 6000 years of documented history. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1186634471887527937   Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb You have a moral duty to write in the language of the population. The French parliament does not use Latin. Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I refuse to use ARABIC, an elite COERCIVE language not spoken by the population. If you want me to write in anything, I use Levantine in the Lebanese version. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 6:57 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7- SOLUTIONS It would be nice to but some kleptocrats in jail, particularly that funds are traceable. This will happen. But it is PATRONAGE that needs to go. Let me repeat, PATRONAGE! This can ONLY happen via decentralization as the larger the cental state, the more patronage. Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 6- People are angry because: a-they share the debt burden w/no benefits b-the Leb State messes up everything it touches, except security c-unlike Maluf, kleptocrats do not deliver The need for religious “harmony” allowed a multi-sect “elite” to milk the system to the bone. Permalink 6:18 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 5- (Cont some clarity about #Lebanon) Corruption doesn’t necessarily kill economic activity (Brazil’s Paulo Maluf “steals but delivers”). Except that the way the Petit Segneurons operate is to use their franchise by imposing yuuuge red tape: No electicity, no garbage collection! Permalink 6:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4- The patronage system got out of control: government contracts grabbed by cronies, in a scheme orchestrated by people in/out of government, s.a. the Grand Segneura & many less visible Petit Segneurons populating ministries. Kleptocracy is traceable& illegal, not patronage! Permalink 6:02 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3- Meanwhile the Gov is that of a federation, which is good (via healthy sectarianism) but government service is simply PATRONAGE, for each sect to get the max from the system. A healthier federation is to do it according to geography, via municipal power. Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2- Luckily the Ponzi involves only 2 parties, Leb Gov (via Ramses XIII Salameh) & the banks. Hence easy non-inflationary cancellations w/clawbacks from those who made millions are possible. In the meanwhile Gov is taxing back the banks to cover secondary deficit, very smart move. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #LEBANON, in Summary 1- Leb government got involved in a Ponzi (facilitated by Ramses XIII, Riad Salameh) that sucks up all funds from the system. People have no incentive to put $ (say inheritance from a childless maternal aunt) in a business; get >10% interest from the bank. Permalink 5:46 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same with #Lebanon driving rules: except for speed, chaos is beneficial. Speed limits are necessary because of nonlinearity. From #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/mIp166DxZQ Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Waiting in line is not always efficient as it can cause traffic jams. At RWRI we recommend that people overcome these arbitrarily & unempirically derived English manners & avoid waiting in line at the buffet lunch. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1186551994892206080   Permalink 4:44 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@BLebnene On @reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/dleyvl/technocracy_wont_solve_our_problems_we_need_a/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share   Permalink 3:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ofer_rubin After they fail those imbeciles NEVER forget to say “this wasn’t real Socialist”, f**king utopia drug dealers. Permalink 4:14 AM – 21 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No. Very naive topdownism. Every degree of complexity reduces odds of success by 1 order of magnitude @lebaneselingui1 https://twitter.com/lebaneselingui1/status/1185972215382249476   Permalink 10:42 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@DarkoAlexandar Cuánto de esto aplica también acá en #chile https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185928446062542848   Permalink 10:25 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Riad Salamé, let me know when we can talk. We need to discuss the Ponzi you helped organize (and what the exact numbers are). There is no way citizens should inherit such a debt burden. Given that primary deficits are ~OK, you have some explanations to do. pic.twitter.com/Wr9NJhyAUj Permalink 9:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb KLEPTOCRACY: It is important to note that corruption is NOT necessarily in the government (often composed of transient ministers) but deep in the opaque administrations. Which is why decentralization makes things salient. Permalink 8:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People in #Lebanon are figuring out spontaneous crowdd order. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hTNC0olXIw”>  pic.twitter.com/hTNC0olXIw Permalink 7:41 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM in LEBANON pic.twitter.com/Bym65b0st4 Permalink 7:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7ada 3am ystghll 2sset l léj2in! Hiyyé l mshklé yallé 2abado 3layon! https://twitter.com/XXVlllV/status/1185898997564751873   Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@Zzeghedrane Diaspora, this is our contribution to the uprising! Fund the people to keep going! Water, food, snacks, masks, whatever they need. $20 can give water to 60 protesters! Please share!! #LebDiasporaProtests #LebDiasporaFunds #لبنان__ينتفض https://www.gofundme.com/f/1sdqrcksqo?utm_medium=social   Permalink 6:20 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Question is whether “Baabda vaut bien une messe”. (Henry IV converted to Catholicism to become King of France. He didn’t have a Greek Orthodox mother.) Beyond the joke, under the LOCALISM program, the president is a mere clerc, as in Switz. Lower rank than mayor of Amioun. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1185492162470916097   Permalink 4:56 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@semperfidem2004 Another excellent argument for #Brexit. Nothing at all “shows very easily” in the EU https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185513868921049088   Permalink 3:05 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Lebanese in Boston, Tomorrow, Sunday the 20th, starting at 4 PM in front of the Boston Public Library – Copley Square Protest with us! Bring your flags and signs! Spread the word to your Lebanese in Boston metro! #LebDiasporaProtests #لبنان_يثور #لبنان_ينتفض #يا_ثوار_الارض pic.twitter.com/QM9HoudTGx Permalink 6:18 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rioting Lebanese style https://twitter.com/nxbeeel/status/1185611015842607104   Permalink 5:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Petition to get the ball rolling on this with @nntaleb https://twitter.com/hachemyassin/status/1185707172476456960   Permalink 5:16 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@HachemYassin Admittedly this needs a lot of work on the ground. M people became accustomed to think they are entitled to things from the state, with the famous “wayniyye l dawle” cliche. dawle is there, but it is the problem,not the solution.sadly, protestors think the state shld provide jobs Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2) The current villains (Siniora, Berri, Basil) will, over time, look much more like villains, whether justified or not. Salamé will, of course, be dragged through the mud. #Lebanon PS- I spend a week per month there but missed events because of #RWRI 12 Permalink 4:02 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb RIOTING LESSON 101; When rioters win concessions from the governement, they ask for more. #Lebanon 1/n Permalink 12:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@dzviovich Concentration of wealth is an emergent property of a complex system such as the economy. https://bit.ly/2oVYyFs   . It is also a property of rent seeking societies. The other emergent property, social mobility, will not show up. Picketty and friends seem to ignore this… Permalink 5:41 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Only in Lebanon. https://twitter.com/melodielaggaffe/status/1185528761426599936   Permalink 5:38 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@jadabdala a phoenician mediterranean saturday – Lebanon – le phénix renait de ses cendres pic.twitter.com/5zQ6yCQVMH Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a … Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Friends, a lecktshur open to the public next Thursday. But it will be mathematical, so non-quants please refrain. Based on my new book, Vol 1 of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yhp3OdC62H”>  pic.twitter.com/yhp3OdC62H Permalink 6:42 AM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For those not used to Twitter language (or aphorisms), “it’s not” should be translated into academic discourse unburdened with space constraints as “not necessarily so”. Permalink 9:05 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb One hitch: Donaldo’s letter is closer to that of the Sultan than to the response by the Cossacks. Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Donaldo’s letter to Erdogan will be remembered in international affairs as the 2019 version of the Cossaks letter to the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed IV. pic.twitter.com/qzA4jLZgP5 Permalink 6:22 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Infrastructure is commonly held to be a good thing. It’s not. It creates winner-take-all effects in communication. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1184692165345267712   Permalink 5:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Treating George W. Bush as an authority on peace and stability is similar to relying on a drunk driver (while drunk) as the expert on road safety. https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1184611576378265600   Permalink 6:27 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 I held that something as absurd as the pseudo-Nobel in economics would end self-destructing. No point fighting it: it would collapse under the weight & monstrosity of the fraud. You can’t fool people forever. 2019 did the job. Permalink 6:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Sanctions work with countries like Turkey & China that depend on the West, not with Iran/Syria after 40 years of autarchy. The mere threat made the currency collapse. Permalink 5:31 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I am impressed. The economic weapon is a much, much more effective one than the military one. We are no longer in 1936. Trump got it. https://twitter.com/DaniFromIC/status/1184575524389163008   Permalink 2:28 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@normonics All over the world, you see a common theme: Decentralization is a threat to the ruling classes. https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/1184558211988447232   Permalink 1:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fasted way to become poor is to socialize with the rich. Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Peterson is a charlatan. https://twitter.com/MZAntonius/status/1184320883285995521   Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@yaneerbaryam Antidepressants and other psych meds are personality change operations. Medicine/psychiatry/psychology are in a primitive state and do not understand context-individual complexity. Meds should be used only as a last resort. @MichaelSagnerMD @nntaleb See https://amazon.com/Psychologys-Ghosts-Crisis-Profession-Back/dp/0300178689   Permalink 5:16 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Well oh well… Tulsi the most searched candidate in 49/50 states yesterday. Seems like #UnusualAmericans want to know more about her. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1184324191119724544   Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This guy is a fraud. https://twitter.com/ascendantpower/status/1184105213675921410   Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Oct 2019

@NonMeek This #Offshorecomic strip was done in collaboration with & inspired by @sean_a_mcclure‘s https://medium.com/@seanaaron100/intelligence-complexity-and-the-failed-science-of-iq-4fb17ce3f12   Thanks for your brilliant inputs, Sean! #IQ #circularity cc: @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Li0lnvP0eb”>  pic.twitter.com/Li0lnvP0eb Permalink 10:57 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@Prof_BearB Nice piece. Brings to mind a point that I didn’t make in my book: if I (and @aaronclauset and @nntaleb + @DrCirillo) are right about the absence of decline and @tanishafazal is right about battle deaths, we’re actually *trying* to kill a lot *more* people today than we used to. https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1184116033872891904   Permalink 8:03 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@ryanckulp everything by @nntaleb. each loop = 1% absorbed https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg/status/1183792839299235840   Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb M7n vs Manyaké as described by @Confusezeus You call a number, ask for Joseph: – “Jozef Khouré hon?” – Wrong number. Call again, same thing. That’s “m7n”. Call 3rd time: Hi, I am Jozef Kouré. Did anyone call for me? That’s manyaké. Permalink 6:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The most untranslatable word I know: “M7n” in Lebanese. Unlike other untranslatable expressions, you cannot even easily describe what it is. Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Be stubborn https://twitter.com/Seananocoistin/status/1184038568966144001   Permalink 3:29 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@sahouraxo A short little history of war propaganda: Vietnam 1964 – Gulf of Tonkin incident Gulf War 1990 – Incubator Babies Iraq War 2003 – Imaginary WMDs Libya 2011 – Nonexistent massacres in Benghazi #Syria 2019: Video from a Kentucky military show passed off as Syrian war footage https://twitter.com/gizmodo/status/1183773245163687936   Permalink 5:43 PM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists (unless they have mental issues, in which case they become psychologists). And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:31 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists. And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:27 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Good news: > 100,000 lawsuits. Engaging in systematic iatrogenics is becoming very unprofitable. After Monsanto, J&J, now waiting for statins, seed oil, etc. https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-legal-challenges-mount-11571055242?shareToken=st588f2ec699f14312a493edf4bde4220b   via @WSJ Permalink 10:26 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on How the Nazis (& predecessors) created a link with (some of) the Mediterranean populations, to manufacture a common “race” with former Barbarians and a continuum of civilization. Chapoutot, thanks to recommendation by @holland_tom pic.twitter.com/KEdcKrbFHb Permalink 9:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Voila, there don’t seem to be many other f(x). pic.twitter.com/G9u0CU21Ns Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Math QUIZ du jour. (Please refrain from commenting outside the exact topic.) pic.twitter.com/jsQuIsC7GS Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@newtgingrich Why is the left so afraid of Tulsi Gabbard? I don’t understand the viciousness of the atatacks on her by the NY Times and others. Permalink 2:25 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Η ελληνική καταγωγή των Ρωμιών της Συρίας που σήμερα σφαγιάζονται από τους μουσουλμάνους https://meaculpa.gr/apopsis/33837-i-elliniki-katagogi-ton-romion-tis-surias-pou-simera-sfagiazontai-apo-tous-mousoulmanous   Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@jun78th Scale transformation is so important a concept – so much mismatch in scale between problem and solution often. When mismatch is minimal, life flows richly. I do hope you are able to (successfully) educate a new generation on scale transformation Permalink 7:11 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The cat is out of the bag. Antifragile is no longer in my control. https://twitter.com/IvanBlecic/status/1183378277278388224   Permalink 6:47 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb He got it! Hyperlinks are distracting. This is not. #Lindy! https://twitter.com/davidboxenhorn/status/1183260484121833472?s=20   Permalink 6:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For COMMENTS pic.twitter.com/eTMMitpVsP Permalink 5:49 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In the PRINCIPIA I explain that people used to welcome individuals but reject groups qua groups (cf hospitality of Arab tribes for n<5 pple, hostility otherwise). They still do but are confused about it. “Racism” is not scale-free. https://twitter.com/teddyjwhitman/status/1183362653022048256   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Eveentually, this pic.twitter.com/1FxmBnhTRg Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb When you ask people what restaurant they *would* like, they answer: comfortable, not too noisy, with room & no wait. Yet they wait in line to pak in tiny rooms with yuuge noise levels & the mobility of the Tokyo subway car. Same for books. Make them dense. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1183336137391108096?s=20   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/rbN8SyBFQq Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The inside: unfortunately one needs to break paragraphs manually pic.twitter.com/CHhlc5rXTR Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb OK, smaller fonts in the margins. Note it is done in LaTeX @Firsou pic.twitter.com/ilN7fNdb6u Permalink 3:57 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally the “Tufte style” is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile Permalink 3:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@bogdanosk Οι «Ρουμ» της Συρίας και του Λιβάνου ανήκουν στο (ελληνόφωνο ως το 1897) Ελληνορθόδοξο Πατριαρχείο Αντιοχείας. Έχουν ελληνική κληρονομιά που χρονολογείται από την ίδρυση της Αντιοχείας το 323 πΧ, καταγόμενοι από αρχαίους Μακεδόνες και βυζαντινούς Ρωμιούς. https://meaculpa.gr/apopsis/33837-i-elliniki-katagogi-ton-romion-tis-surias-pou-simera-sfagiazontai-apo-tous-mousoulmanous   Permalink 2:30 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any type of activity or business divorced from the direct filter of skin in the game, the great majority of people know the jargon, play the part, and are intimate with the cosmetic details, but are clueless about the subject.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:17 PM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game, Brussels pic.twitter.com/Ri9mkMwPm6 Permalink 10:33 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@noedelafuentemd @nntaleb @RyanHoliday #stillnessisthekey pic.twitter.com/7featfQoJY Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Food can only be Lindy. And technology (Amazon) can reduce the distance between supplier and consumer. pic.twitter.com/X1WO7RU4D0 Permalink 8:05 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/visithmml/status/1181721190714527747?s=21   Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Referees should have skin in the game. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1182262130566938624   Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@FedericoPistono It is a special kind of satisfaction to receive the Incerto pentalogy by @nntaleb, in glorious deluxe hardcover, bought with fuck-you-money I made starting my own businesses from scratch, taking risks. pic.twitter.com/RkHIOVmSTu Permalink 4:52 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Here https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 5:03 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy My next book is in this format. https://twitter.com/erik_kwakkel/status/1181962553628483584   Permalink 4:58 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Mehdi_IR_DC My own reason for not liking psychology is that its point of departure is human arrogance. To understand human mind and to fix it! Religion on the other hand starts from the point of human humility, it has via negativa. Permalink 3:50 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Arch_Revival_ Before & After Hungarians replace ugly modernist building with a new build in the Classical tradition. A beautiful city is a better city. Budapest pic.twitter.com/TPiRSli9o6 Permalink 3:39 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Debating… Molyneux? If someone offered you to debate an animal in the zoo, you will be equally offended. Permalink 8:39 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@satyakatla Have chanced upon a #DataScientist lecturing, who has no idea about probability and stating that distribution is drifting from the assumption, hence wrong prediction. What he doesn’t get is it is wrong distribution to start with. @nntaleb succinctly mentioned this here: pic.twitter.com/aSVtmEAFmv Permalink 7:46 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Finaly for the identity Gov. Debt = Asset you need the asset to have the same value as if determined by the real market under selection pressures. Permalink 4:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@walid970721 I just found this tweet by Ken Roth from 2018 that shows what a moron he is. Of course the majority of the refugees are going to be Sunni when they form the majority of the population. Claiming that it’s proof of ethnic cleansing is idiotic. #Syria https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/1013454626694234112   Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Plus or minus the usual typos. pic.twitter.com/qGyuGLFpNQ Permalink 2:16 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Asking @sapinker to talk about … tail risk? https://twitter.com/phil_papa/status/1181854183487606784   Permalink 2:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@briteless You will never get the f*** you money* by winning arguments. (Advice to a young adult who wants to become personally free, financially independent, and freely pursue his interests). – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/AfrikaKesho/status/1181267585511370753   Permalink 12:31 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Quiz du Jour, Romanian Mathematical Magazine. [Flight to Brussels] pic.twitter.com/AWKuYjJeHQ Permalink 4:35 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally there is something of interest here: group IQ != average member IQ. Complex systems are about interactions. Failure of mean field. Permalink 4:25 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@stephen_wolfram Even after 35+ years the simplest cellular automata are full of new things to discover… Noticed in a livestream yesterday: rule 73 has randomness in its left- or right-of-center column, but with 3:2 white:black https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/s.wolfram/Published/Rule73.nb   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sp4d4RWZ8g”>  pic.twitter.com/sp4d4RWZ8g Permalink 3:49 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb NEVER read anything written by journalists, just look at prices! Correct: “Stocks dropped less than a Mean Deviation because of very slight order imbalances caused by a tiny minority; a small number of unidentified motivated investors adjusting their holdings.” #MinorityRule pic.twitter.com/Xz3TOQtlY8 Permalink 10:27 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FINAL. Thanks everyone for the help. pic.twitter.com/vDI9g9e5TK Permalink 5:32 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Shawarma is not from Turkish but (Eastern) Aramaic, as the Turkish itself (çevirme) originates from the Eastern Syriac Sha-warma, where there is a shift “b” to “w”. “Barma” means to rotate, just as in “gyro” and “rotisserie”. @turlevnon Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THIRD VERSION Large Kafkaian centralization units such as Whitehall, Brussels, etc. “Elite” undergraduate education pic.twitter.com/jmakcYOcRg Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Tis is probabilistic, so the idea is that 3-7 out of 10 items will be gone. Permalink 3:43 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@financequant The trend to relentless centralization will collapse (after much suffering). This has happened in the small with many ex-socialist countries. Consider Sweden which restored a market economy and decentralized its social programs; e.g., school vouchers. http://bit.ly/2ARDBhq   Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@Dark_Realist https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400?s=19   Permalink 1:49 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2nd version pic.twitter.com/aUuCaAKOZS Permalink 1:08 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FOR COMMENTS Friends, was asked to “predict” what would happen by the end of the decade. Used Lindy. pic.twitter.com/xCqtBIPZ2T Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Why under convexity you don’t need to be a “good” forecaster. pic.twitter.com/7ckH9FA0W6 Permalink 5:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Convexity is often missed in: + finance (gamma, model error) + evolutionary biology (mean-field) cc:@yaneerbaryam (Even those who support group selection s.a. Wilson accept the non-convexity math). + forecasting (verbalistic Tetlockism) + behavioral econ (failure of mean-field) https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1080800546813034499   Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The market is like a large movie theater with a small door. And the best way to detect a sucker is to see if his focus is on the size of the theater rather than that of the door.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@davidgraeber remember any Turkish invasion of Rojava will be a NATO invasion of Rojava. Any genocide they carry out will be NATO genocide https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/americas-kurdish-allies-syria-turkey-nato   Permalink 2:55 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@Kitsune808 Echos of Taleb multiplying… @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jtepper2/status/1180784381570486272   Permalink 12:53 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@ektrit There is study of Theology/Church History by studying the Church Fathers and There is study of Theology/Church History by understanding that Church Fathers were in the 0.1% of Educated Elite. So, all theological conflict was among the top 0.1%. Night and Day approach. Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Oct 2019

@DellAnnaLuca THE DYNAMICS OF THE ANTIFRAGILE (thread) Where does the ability of the antifragile to benefit from volatility come from? Can this ability be increased? What policies increase it, and which decrease it? 1/N Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@VergilDen When charlatans, BS artists, and imbeciles try to team up against @nntaleb https://twitter.com/newcuiture/status/1180855329468424192   Permalink 7:46 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Further, the identity in Debt = Money an entity called “we” owes to an entity called “ourselves” fails ergocity. #ergodicityeconomics @ole_b_peters Permalink 6:23 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “You know you have influence when people start noticing your absence more than the presence of others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 3:24 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@birdxi1988 At first glance,it seems that ergodicity transformation is same as log utility but with a fancy name. This just shows you why they are so different https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1180431542096666624   Permalink 10:48 AM – 5 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS you should not live with: coercion of identity by the state or some IYI. https://twitter.com/LebAmUniv/status/1179690962756526081   Permalink 2:54 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes! Doing something that is boring, unnatural, and devoid of organic stimulus is not (necessarily) virtue. It is meant to train people to become good bureaucrats and other slaves. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1179505096335474691   Permalink 2:52 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/ +Need for *adult supervision* (international) of Salameh & others, no need to replace right away. Permalink 9:21 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/ + Government cannot control the corruption, located is in the “deep” ministries. Changing minister is of no help. +Nonpolitical decentralization only solution. +Central state great at managing sectarian tensions …but incapable of dealing with economic life; it’s a burden Permalink 9:20 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE FINANCIAL SITUATION, INTERVIEW Recorded for LBCI (Thu 9:30 PM). + There ~no primary deficit, so no risk of big collapse. Debt is circular Bank-State. + People are so scared that ANY reduction of uncertainty (via moratorium) would be yuugely beneficial Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In real estate you make money buying the overpriced and selling when extraoverpriced. Avoid the “affordable” crap. https://twitter.com/ibrahimwarde/status/1179397774162481152   Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Any sucker who buys “Bullshit Claire”’s version of anything or argument about any topic is blocked for intellectual deficiency. Gabish? https://twitter.com/patrissimo/status/1179392526551322626   Permalink 7:10 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4 hours dinner conversation with @rorysutherland and Rohan @Silva in a Pakistani restaurant in London (2 bottles of wine, but no Negroni). You must buy two copies of Rory’s book, in case one is stolen, lost, damaged (by the rain), or self-destructs. pic.twitter.com/Xa5WFOGCNt Permalink 3:03 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb So conforming to his status of fake scholar, @charlesmurray promotes a thread by *Claire-the-hysterical basketcase* without any of them knowing what I actually said. Note: Anyone who ever cites Charles Murray on anything becomes a fake scholar. https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/1178784796891238400?s=21   Permalink 9:28 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@GultekinBurce Small Probability, High Impact Payoffs: The horizontal line can be the payoff over time, or cross-sectional over many simultaneous trials. Full article: https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility   by @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/F4o8X5IQ1M”>  pic.twitter.com/F4o8X5IQ1M Permalink 1:04 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@STrosterud Yes. Nothing like Taleb accusing the Swedes directly for their Nobel shenanigans Makes both my Norwegian, and Finnish side smile pic.twitter.com/P1ybneyIgF Permalink 11:42 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@paulportesi And the evidence comes later. @nntaleb https://news.yahoo.com/moneywatch-cvs-pulls-zantac-similar-133851787.html   Permalink 7:12 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I meant they changed room to the largest one based on registrations. Permalink 7:04 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Volante team. Volante is a publisher in Stockholm. pic.twitter.com/2VpDfhrlBR Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room. https://twitter.com/volanteforlag/status/1178218694234820609   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room. https://twitter.com/VolanteForlag/status/1178218694234820609   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@AntonioBlaGra While Taleb’s Real World Risk Institute #RWRI was not one of the organizations I reseached, I realize now that it certainly presents the three characteristics of the Internet Culture: open knowledge, decentralization, and reputation based in what you do. https://realworldrisk.com/   Permalink 3:10 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Except that the Nobel Prize of Literature has the remarkable ability to pick non #Lindy authors too embedded in their time: For France, Sully Prudhomme, Fréderic Mistral,Roger Martin du Gard,Romain Rolland, Anatole France,… https://twitter.com/thomasjbevan1/status/1178602114290982912   Permalink 2:34 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And desertions, and typhus, and the mud. And he kept losing horses throughout. Permalink 1:32 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon is a prime example of *winning almost all battles but losing the war*. Permalink 1:15 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The single biggest hit was the Pyrrhic victory of Borodino (if we can call it a “victory”). Permalink 1:01 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/chasewpatterson/status/1178563602497691648?s=21   Permalink 12:05 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox churches are even more beautiful! https://twitter.com/xxvlllv/status/1178336300325380103   Permalink 12:02 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon was also the grandmaster of fake news, doctoring up his “bulletins”, misreporting his casualties and those of the enemies, even when he was the winner. Permalink 11:55 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb He simply lost 2/3 of his troops to the Russians and the Cossacks. Permalink 11:51 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb MYTH DU JOUR Napoleon was not that great invincible general who was defeated by the Russian winter, nonmilitary circumstances. His Grande Armée had lost 2/3 of its soldiers before the first frost. Also remember that he (twice) deserted his own army. Permalink 11:46 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Never include in your company name “Forever”, “Long Term (Capital)”, or “Amaranth (Capital)” (flower that never dies). https://twitter.com/LieraMarco/status/1178558793707245568   Permalink 11:37 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@Marcellenassif Ideal morning coffee mug pic.twitter.com/nvpNdVi3Kb Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the case of @michaelshermer it was not that I block idiots; it was that I block charlatans, @Monsantobuster https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1178312535822479361   Permalink 7:24 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Looks like you got the idea backwards. pic.twitter.com/iSNHZJuJSq Permalink 7:22 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@VolanteForlag Finally in Sweden: @nntaleb! Today we are looking forward to a great day in Gothenburg at #bokmässan. Miss that? Tomorrow he will lecture in Stockholm. Tickets here: https://www.medborgarskolan.se/arrangemang-sok/skin-in-the-game-forelasning-med-nassim-taleb-1176833/   @bokmassanGbg @medborgarskolan ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zVG2IrEEcZ”>  pic.twitter.com/zVG2IrEEcZ Permalink 1:03 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Aquavit is so strong the Swedes have to drink beer with it. pic.twitter.com/jZaJyxieL3 Permalink 11:53 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Giving a lecktschur on Stockholm Monday Sept 30 in the evening to introduce the Swedish edition of Skin in the Game. https://www.medborgarskolan.se/arrangemang-sok/skin-in-the-game-forelasning-med-nassim-taleb-1176833/   Meanwhile aquavit. https://twitter.com/bkzafar/status/1177942090082377729   Permalink 10:12 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@bkzafar Since no one would believe me otherwise. Got seated next to one of my favourite authors on the train from Stockholm. Welcome to Gothenburg @nntaleb :) pic.twitter.com/NipSN268Mr Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Explanations: 1- Lebanese banks are NOT lending to businesses, but to the government to service the debt… to the same banks. That’s what I called “circularity”. 2- Merchants now realize that an IOU from another merchant is safer than $ in the “bank”. Salameh needs to go. Permalink 2:05 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 3 + Traditional Lebanese politics along ethnoreligious lines are put on hold (now, money talks). Parties are deemed equally incompetent. Old system of *state employement as political patronage* goes out via attrition. + Real decentralization. Permalink 1:50 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 2 The system fixes itself + People realize that banks returns are not risk-free; Any income generating project than lend to the “circularity”. + Increase in governance from sudden transparent + Noninvestors take a haircut from past gains. Permalink 1:34 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION + The primary budget is about balanced; pressure is from debt servicing. + Higher rates drain the economy as real investment returns pale compared to bank deposits *in US $*, leading to a circularity Gov-Banks-Depositors. Let the system fix itself! Permalink 1:25 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (Continuing the thread) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1177850770252845058?s=20   Permalink 12:58 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 16 That rationality is about ideas, & beliefs (or religion) can be “irrational”. No. Rationality is about action. There is no axiomatic framework for rationality that includes beliefs. It is what you do. #SkinintheGame https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 12:41 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@NupurJoshii I love how Nassim Taleb writes his books! There’s a summary to each section and each chapter.. There’s chapter notes . There’s a guide to the book. There’s hilarity and brilliance all at the same time. I mean. It’s wonderful ! Permalink 11:53 PM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Now first statement by Quilletebecile Young @toadmeisster: “IQ is a better predictor of socioeconomic status than parental socioeconomic status” is plain BS. IQ does not predict income/wealth (close to R^2=0, with cheating they get <.04). Permalink 10:42 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And By the way, Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister, we now have the same raw longitudinal data as the ones used by these studies. Permalink 10:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister you can now go find ALLLLLL the “studies” you want, the effective R^2 IQ tests to economic condition is ~0. Keep trying you and your Neo-Eugenist friends. Permalink 10:21 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb As an Orthodox, today was the second most important day for me (after my baptism). The highest ranking person in Orthodoxy, His Holiness Bartholomeos 1 Patriarch of Constantinople, gave me his blessing & a small gift. It was on a plane out of Constantinopolis. pic.twitter.com/qVAeY9jl5f Permalink 10:05 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Mr Young’s own data shows an R^2 of .04 for IQ-Income. He is talking abt socioeconomic condition. Where is the 80% heritability? Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Quillette people make up numbers. This does not show “80% heritability”. Toby Young is a fraud. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177583074202308610?s=21   Permalink 8:09 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid The “State of the art in SS Fcing” is a review paper for lay readers clarifying what we know, what we are not sure and what we don’t know about the field plus what has been achieved lately The paper is part of the M4 Special Issue of the I. J. of Forecasting @robjhyndman @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/4XjFL2LF6t Permalink 4:59 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In fact IQ is 0% correlated to socioeconomic status, Mr Young @toadmeister Fraudster. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1172597583174414336?s=20   Permalink 4:51 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Plomin estimates IQ *testing* is 50% heritable, itself weakly correlated to performance. Plus testing is also 80% correlated to other tests. I estimated R^2 of 0% for socio-economic performance. @toadmeister is a quack reciting some Quillette invented mantra. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese (not Lebanese Armenian) manti (shish barak) is cooked in goat milk yoghurt with Med herbs (laban immo) and left to marinate for a bit. Permalink 4:08 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This idiot Toby Young by saying IQ is 80% heritable is not even representing the literature which (falsely) claims a maximum of 50% @toadmeister https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177351195503026176?s=20   Permalink 3:47 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb + sur les bords + pauvre con (h/t @firsou), very different from petit con + fofolle + bancal + bon chic bon genre + pour ta gouverne + foiré Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Noticed that in Tatarstan & Kazakhstan they stuff their manti with horse meat, and, mostly, horse fat; the yoghurt is made from mare’s milk. Permalink 3:27 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Which confirms my theory that Quillette is managed by a collection of low-intellect, low-skilled BS vendors, using poorly warmed up pseudoscience to promote a eugenics agenda and, of course, incapable of hiding it. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177351195503026176   Permalink 2:58 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Manti (Istanbul): the ancestor of ravioli. Except, of course, better. pic.twitter.com/1NtTDfNpP9 Permalink 2:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Democrats: If you are using information from the whistleblower, you MUST ask for Assange’s exoneration. #Coherence Permalink 11:19 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TMFStoffel “Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling” *THIS* more than anything else, is the thing that — once you see it — you can’t un-see. It’s not just Rand. It seems like scale is something that we *ALL* struggle with. But once we see it, it changes everything. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1177267073409605634   Permalink 8:01 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile https://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Disorder-Incerto/dp/0812979680/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&linkCode=ll1&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 6:34 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Ofer just answered the central point: we are not really talking about selfishness, but symmetry. So long as do you not transfer risks to others, you are honorable. You are even more honorable when you take the risks of others. https://twitter.com/ofer_rubin/status/1177294276302127105?s=20   5/n Permalink 11:55 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (cont) + plouc + de souche + marche a coté de ses pompes + petit con (the “petit” is central) Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This said there are a lot of words in French I know that have no (potent) equivalent in English which come to me in Fr: + vivotter + glander + minable + tête à baffe Permalink 10:41 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This does’nt make “selfishness” honorable. Nature has no junk: it recycles & makes fertilizers out of animal & human waste. Likewise society recycles somewhat selfish pursuits as fertilizer. So we should not be glorify selfishness, no more than we do w/excreta. 4/n Permalink 10:08 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling. In that sense I prefer people to focus Mandeville who inspired Adam Smith’s “it’s not the benevolence of the butcher…” A good society is one that via scale transformation makes a virtuous collective out of somewhat selfish individuals. 3/n Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb a hero who serves the collective (expected return is negative as 999/1000 will fail) and there is no such thing as a “failed” entrepreneur; I subscribe to virtue ethics and Christian morality which makes some of her stances repugnant to me both as a Christian & a Classic-ist. 2/n Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I do share a lot of readers with Ayn Rand and there are some commonalities: 1) To do good, focus on your own business, 2) Bureaucrats are evil, etc. But there are yuuuge differences. I do not believe that individuals should be “selfish”, I do believe that the entrepreneur is 1/n Permalink 9:56 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Should be illegal! https://twitter.com/chemblette/status/1177260448347054086   Permalink 9:46 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@zmpng Breaking a 24h fast with squid ink paella. Does @nntaleb approve? pic.twitter.com/Ctj76IX7A5 Permalink 9:11 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The point is not about Trump but the system. I can easily understand why someone can hate Trump. But changing the rules under asymmetries effectively destroys the system. Permalink 5:49 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb My take: Collusion between two parties needs to emanate from an explicit transaction or a well defined offer, not something vague in a conversation. It should be subjected to the same standards as contractual obligations. Otherwise everything can be interpreted as collusion. Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Bottarga with rosé. pic.twitter.com/rPgg3cuI8J Permalink 3:29 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@MarkAmesExiled “The Houthis were only nominally Iran’s surrogates, but they were also our quiet partners against al-Qaeda.” Uncanny how often we try to wipe out Al Qaeda’s enemies https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-military-officials-who-knew-saudi-arabia-would-fail/   Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or is this Ukraine thingy a pathological delusion? Read the transcript. https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1176910531338199040   Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Blunder duJour: Was telling someone on the phone in French “you gave me invaluable advice” (abt food, of course), came out as literal translation “un avis sans valeur” which means “an opinion of no value” & realized after hanging up. Wonder if I will ever get more food tips. Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapouri, Med version pic.twitter.com/UcDxCp5WDC Permalink 1:30 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@rperezmarco “When the scientist points at research the imbecile examines the number of papers” (you can quote me for this one). https://twitter.com/HigherGeometer/status/1176404487272980482   Permalink 2:50 AM – 24 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Actions > words. One of the best rules I know. pic.twitter.com/Z9if9Sy2BT Permalink 11:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

Keynes, AOC, Bezos, Saudi Barbaria, Nat. Enquirer, Ghosn, IQ, alarm clocks, tawking, Peterson-Golden Rice, Lebanon, Nationalism, Pinker, Kelton,

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Imbecilic Keynesianisticists find *ad hoc* arguments to argue deficits don’t cause inflation. The focus is on “foreign debt”. There are tons of counteramples, including close to me the Lebanese devaluation (rate frm 3/$ -> 1500) that ruined my grandfather https://twitter.com/msilva12000/status/1094644393854844929   Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Industrious BS producing psychologists have been using correlation/regression for 100 years like parrots without trying to figure out what it means intuitively. They can’t even define it. Correlation (unlike mut information) is randomly subadditive or superadditive! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 8:19 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@NeutralTesla And Khashoggi died as the result of a fistfight. Saudi Arabia says has ‘nothing to do’ with Bezos-AMI dispute https://reut.rs/2GjiNnI   @nntaleb Permalink 8:16 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Announcement: Deborah Mayo @learnfromerror has a seminar on the philosophy of statistics. She also has a new book on the subject. Comments to come. pic.twitter.com/AXmhra36mu Permalink 8:12 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From POPPER to FAT TONY *BS detection*, *via negativa*, *not being a sucker*, & asymmetric epistemology are rarely accepted as modi operandi across disciplines. BS detection is the engine of 1) epistemology/science for Popper 2) theology for Orthodoxy 3) business for Fat Tony https://twitter.com/brentdsummers/status/1094561610964684801   Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb …and risk. Please do not give me Keynes as counterexample as he proved to be clueless about risk, but wasn’t as intellectually defective as today’s Keynesians. Permalink 4:29 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason social science calls itself a “science” is because of statistics. And their statistics are practically BS everywhere. I mean, really, everywhere. https://twitter.com/BeagleOnALeash/status/1094345432875089922   Permalink 1:58 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@keithbensons @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HPpx2IWVb8 Permalink 1:02 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Unpublished pictures are worth a lot more than published ones. #NationalEnquirer #UmbertoEcosLibrary Permalink 12:54 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR The phenomenon known as “regression to the mean” is largely a social science illusion. It requires a stable & *known* mean, constant standard deviation, a thin-tailed distribution, & homogeneous cohorts. Permalink 11:52 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is easiest to do the most when you have nothing to do. Permalink 10:09 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The maximum success is reached when you are never busy. https://twitter.com/extrachelle/status/1093857798612545538   Permalink 6:14 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@yzilber Gawker were saints Vs Nat Etq. Nate Enq are mafia Gawker were just crude thugs misbehaving Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What Occasio is saying on lobby funding is right, healthy, & perfectly compatible with libertarianism/localism. These distortions/hijacking of representation are the product of a centralized system. Let us make sure these ideas of sound governance are not marketed as “socialist”. https://twitter.com/JKCorden/status/1093634176845139968   Permalink 9:26 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas I don’t think Dunning Krueger is real or Lindy https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1093909071336562688   Permalink 8:48 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The most unsettling part of the @JeffBezos story is the very high possibility that Saudi Arabia is blackmailing the current U.S. president. Even in the case of Bezos, blackmailing on behalf of a foreign government has some legal consequences. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093845565333475329   Permalink 7:02 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man “You can’t eat Sharpe ratios.” @Bloomberg @ErikSchatzker https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1086321274522165248   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093515067600056320   Permalink 6:59 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” 2- I block idiots. Like immediately. Nothing personal. Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: Noah Smith @Noahpinion has a long history of commenting on papers & books he didn’t read. Yet how come such a fraud still exists? Only because he represents a certain socialist line? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1093863981478019072   Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MORAL OF THE STORY: – If Saudi Barbaria & the Nat. Enquirer can explicitly blackmail the richest person in the most powerful country, where does it leave the rest of us? – Remember we were saved from Gawker that was in the business of ruining the lives of college students. https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1093643321732464646   Permalink 4:14 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntalebbot “Regular minds find similarities in stories (and situations); finer minds detect differences.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@Safaitic I will be giving a lecture at ISAW ( http://isaw.nyu.edu/  ) on March 29-30 at a workshop on the Nessana Papyri. I imagine it will be open to the public so please join us and hear about the trilingual language situation of the town in the 6th c. CE. Permalink 12:10 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- (Ghosn) I know numerous billionaires; I’ve met many CEOs. Billionaires tend to live as if they were CEOs; CEOs tend to live as if they were billionaires. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Ghosn fell prey to the “show me the man, I will find you a crime”. Someone with enemies should be obsessive about creating a web a “plausible deniability” ahead of time. You need to stay at least one step ahead of your enemies, in France two steps, and in Japan, three. Permalink 9:38 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@NonMeek A good rule of thumb is to focus on what people do instead of what they say. #NOskininthegame = #BS pic.twitter.com/Qp3L9kb8WI Permalink 7:48 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM CARLOS GHOSN? (Thread) Ghosn is a very competent man but 1- One cannot behave like Henry Ford or Louis XIV if one is getting a salary/under corporate bondage. Worse: one is NEVER free when getting a salary. Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Universa’s Spitznagel on Fed Policy, Hedge Funds and Insuring Market Risk https://youtu.be/xiBjBkXBHLw   via @YouTube Permalink 6:21 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-06/nietsche-optimizing-risk-and-embracing-disasters   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @zerohedge #Nietzsche #AmorFati ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J”>  pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J Permalink 6:17 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The IQ thingy by psychologists/BS vendors is drawing me back to the problem of non-elipticality of distributions. Correlation is much harder to work with than you think. (from my next book) pic.twitter.com/k2R1Z86dHd Permalink 1:54 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any positive advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. (corrected to fix the meta-problem). Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Finally figured out. “IQ” doesn’t test for intelligence; rather how likely a person is likely to become a state-solution loving socialist. Permalink 11:01 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@normonics genetics is good for sorting out history, as @nntaleb is doing, but is terrible for making predictions or describing how macroscopic behaviors and properties unfold from genetics, given our current knowledge and abilities. Permalink 8:44 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@thackerpd Nina Federoff is the former President of AAAS. She is now an advisor to a law firm that lobbies for the agrochemical industry and a critic of #GMO reporting “Flacking for GMOs: How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media—and Discourages Criticism” https://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/   Permalink 7:57 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Those who aren’t in it for the money won’t tell you that they aren’t in it for the money. Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school professor. Permalink 7:15 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who has to work for a living. Permalink 7:03 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2nd Lecture at Tandon on probability, showed how under some conditions (conservation) Max Entropy leads to the Gaussian. Adding the derivations to my book. pic.twitter.com/I6y85F8Bsi Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hayda tzwir térikhé. L-lbnénéné (w l mashr2é/néoKn3ané) lghétna l2mm. Permalink 4:55 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb An indicator of freedom and bondage: how often did you have to use an alarm clock this month? Permalink 4:52 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@LindyEffect Erasmus pic.twitter.com/x98fdqwYyZ Permalink 6:41 PM – 5 Feb 2019

@sentantiq Tonight Dani Bostick will be live tweeting the State of the Union Address in Latin. Look out for @danibostick and the hashtag #LatinSOTU https://sententiaeantiquae.com/2019/02/05/the-state-of-our-union-in-latin/   Permalink 8:58 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@normonics Quick GMO complexity lesson: A central challenge in complexity studies is understanding how microscopic properties and behaviors flow upwards in scale and produce macroscopic behaviors It turns out this is a VERY hard problem Permalink 8:47 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Removed the Abstract (it was a teaser before submission to a journal)… Will repost in a few. Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My contribution to the problem is here https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085879808624607232   Permalink 5:22 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@MaxAbrahms New report adds even more evidence that American weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gone to Al Qaeda and its friends in Yemen. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/02/middleeast/yemen-lost-us-arms/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is dishonest to claim that the rich of yesterday are the same as those of today. Ergodicity https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 8:37 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@EconTalker This is dishonest. Not the same people in those groups every year. Your picture and your tweet make it seem otherwise. It’s not a zero-sum game and every serious economist knows it. You should too. https://medium.com/@russroberts/do-the-rich-capture-all-the-gains-from-economic-growth-c96d93101f9c   https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1092397923009204224   Permalink 8:19 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: RATIONALITY John 1،1:Ἐν ἀρχῇ ἦν ὁ λόγος, mistransl. “in the beginning was the verb” shd بع “First, there is reasoning”. The Peshita, uses “Béréshit (for beginning, shd be “principally”) MLL for verb =”abilitlity to speak” λόγος= منطق= מלל NOT كلمة #Lindy pic.twitter.com/8Tc9CLXHWO Permalink 6:12 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@zerohedge The term “neoliberal warmongers” is thus born https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1092245449304612869   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 I thought that correlation was a bad measure because super-additive [relu/sigmoids] rho[a+b]>rho[a]+rho[b]. Turns out it is also sub-additive [exponential]. In other words, there are very very very narrow conditions where one can safely use correlation. Permalink 6:32 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And of course Patrick Moore whose dangerous, dishonest (& exploitative) arguments psychologist @jordanbPeterson was diffusing is a well identified shill for glyphosate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovKw6YjqSfM   Permalink 3:31 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The point is not if someone is right or wrong. It is if someone is a bullshitter, tawking about stuff he doesn’t know nothing about or giving you verbalistic arguments that sound good. He will be a bullshitter EVEN if he later turns out to be right. https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1092138559283384320   Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When you are, say, a physicist, you don’t argue abt quantum mechanics w/an astrologer for the sake of “listening to all sides”. I just block people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom I DO NOT want to have an exchange because you DO NOT learn/advance from bullshit. Gabish? Permalink 11:05 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Actually it is not just virtue signaling but Peterson’s DISGUSTING use of appeal to pity or some FAKE humanitarianism “because blindness” to justify selling speculative options in place of less lucrative more robust ones. Similar to pedophrasty. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 10:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb OUR PRECAUTIONARY PPLE WITH RESPECT TO GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@olivierglinec Avez vous lu cela: https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/nicolas-hulot-monsanto-a-demande-a-une-officine-belge-de-soccuper-de-ma-reputation-3850433   Permalink 10:02 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb There are antecedents https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1092119956597235717   Permalink 9:58 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I block @JordanbPeterson for violation of intellectual integrity/virtue signaling. pic.twitter.com/8HDRPXmtdZ Permalink 9:48 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb These tweets explain that if you have a nonlinear function, say IQ vs performance, then “correlation” is tooooootally meaningless mathematically, & multidimensional “factors” are even worse. This is of some relevance for machine learning with the ReLu function. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1091820909281923073   Permalink 8:18 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb ANSWER: found a counterexample f(x)=Exp[x]. Overall correlation is always lower (up to ~40%) than that of any subsample! MORAL: Use psychometrics/psychology books for winter fuel as many citizens have difficulties with their heating bills. pic.twitter.com/FctDnzdLT1 Permalink 6:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/xAcAhnGg8R Permalink 2:11 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE INEQUALITY DU JOUR pic.twitter.com/vaCY0gAlnV Permalink 2:09 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Palestinians are dominated by J1 pic.twitter.com/AlxfmkVmPQ Permalink 10:53 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When people makes public apologies and acts of contrition, they are mostly sorry that they were caught. Permalink 6:31 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@Monsantobuster Falkenstein spent 21 years smearing Taleb with lies and strawman. Is he so stupid as not to realize he can get caught? http://fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34″>  pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34 Permalink 5:02 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lamma tfshal ma7ada byid3amak mitl ahl blédak w lamma tnja7 ma7ada byi7sadak w bkhazwék fik mitl ibn baladak Permalink 7:04 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@SituationO Lebanon’s new government has 4 female ministers: – @rayaelhassan ,(Interior), Future Movement – @violetteksafadi ,(Woman affairs), Future Movement – @may_chidiac ,(Administrative reform), Lebanese Forces – @NadaBoustani ,(Energy), Free Patriotic Movement Congrats! pic.twitter.com/3PahUeWcX8 Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What is working in Lebanon is that it doesn’t have two factions, but at least three. Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@yaneerbaryam Switzerland is a country of peace, stability & prosperity. Our analysis shows that peace doesn’t depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well-defined topographical & political boundaries separating groups @arutherfordium @GardMurray @future_andi https://necsi-global.org/good-fences-the-importance-of-setting-boundaries-for-peaceful-coexistence/?rq=switzerland   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM”>  pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 4 women in Lebanese government. The rest is details. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1091414421732249601   Permalink 12:09 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Fractal Localism pic.twitter.com/kY2zjrzDLD Permalink 12:02 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BARBARIAN SUPREMACISM From now on, you can call “White” supremacists BARBARIAN SUPREMACISTS Northrn Europe does not have a monopoly on Caucasian. (Note I permanently blocked @RazibKhan as he could not substantiate what “flaws” he claimed in our GMO risk paper, hence his watch) pic.twitter.com/zdX8rsH5U3 Permalink 9:15 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more. #BedofProcrustes https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1091288735721967616   Permalink 8:02 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can easily have a nation-state with 2, even 4 languages (Belgium, Switzerland), but you can’t easily have a nation-state with 2 religions. #Localism Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@booksoftitans The Bed of Procrustes by @nntaleb just $2.99 on @AmazonKindle and @AppleBooks today – https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms-ebook/dp/B004C43F9S   – https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/the-bed-of-procrustes/id420518445   Permalink 7:28 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- In other words, there exist a system where you can be a Maronite/Shiite/Armenian nationalist without imposing your preferences on others, and without others imposing their preferences on you. It’s localism. Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It was PRECISELY the removal of multiculturalism by Arabists that fucked it up. Permalink 6:06 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Nationalism is an idea that came about in the 19th C., messed up Greece/Turkey, destroyed Alexandria, Saloniki, Aleppo, Smyrna, Constantinople. French nationalism is absurd:Provencal localism is not. Now people are getting Fractal localism and City-states as a natural order. Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM/LEBANON Maronites are obsessed w/Lebanese Nationalism=Maronite homeland; don’t consider us the Rhum (Greek Orthodox) minority (~5%) as part of their ethnos: we are too Mediterraneanists/Universalists w/foreign allegiances. Hence a Swiss-style bottom-up Localism. https://twitter.com/sarkis_charles/status/1091241380268130304   Permalink 5:55 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Closed for RWRI-10. We gave 20 full and partial scholarships in total for RWRI-10. Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@oliviergay Same with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. On his interrogation on hiding non-existing WMD: “Western governments and their intelligence agencies had failed to realize that Saddam was more fearful of attack by Iran than by the US.” https://twitter.com/RidT/status/1077944842896982016   Permalink 5:07 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #9: https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1087681642599276545   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #1 https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1088339650333294594   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@ole_b_peters Very nice. This precise mathematical error is all over economics. Do something invalid with a limit or an infinity and claim whatever you want. When you point out such an error, you’re told economic theories don’t have to be mathematically correct, they just have to sound smart. https://twitter.com/Undercoverhist/status/1075912850269487104   Permalink 1:11 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas Imagine having this “genetic intelligence test” and not being rich https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1091038511233421313   Permalink 2:02 PM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT We have a 100% scholarship left for RWRI-10 for a woman, preferably Syrian or Venezuelan, or from a troubled part of the planet, preferably a doctoral student, preferably a nonpsychologist. NEED TO APPLY TODAY Feb 11-15, NY. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:37 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, psychometric measures best the extreme unintelligence of psychometricians. https://twitter.com/ThomasGrava/status/1091055576237395970   Permalink 11:32 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@fpontaza Chef @ArielTrodArgent had us for dinner last night and honored his Lebanese ancestry with his Lindy recipe for keppe crudo. You rarely get to experience something so great from so far away in Guatemala. We raised our glasses for @nntaleb! pic.twitter.com/9CjgNQ4pMM Permalink 11:24 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@AdibChristian Looking into using #GoogleAutoMLTranslation to create a translation engine that can process Lebnééné/NeoKanaané. Thoughts? @BLebnene https://cloud.google.com/translate/   Permalink 10:44 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5- Something about Persia that the Trump administration is clueless: Persia obsessed Greeks, Romans, Arabs, then Ottomans for the past 2400 years. Rome was broke frm the 700 y Persian wars. Unconquered in spite of short lived fake successes: Alexander, Herakles, Arabs, etc.. Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090986235223568384   Permalink 8:08 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- The Ottomans also used the Byzantine administration. They even brought the Levant back into “Rome”. They also protected Orthodoxy from Catholic “Europe”… for a while. Look at the map. https://twitter.com/hzkathulhu/status/1090988564886810625   Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Something @peterfrankopan got: Ottomans didn’t give a f*** abt “Rome” since Rome itself moved closer to the wealth, the silk road, & was now Constantinople. Before wealth from the Americas the West was an economic desert. Turks shared w/Romans & Byzantines the Persian obsession. Permalink 7:10 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Turks’ anger at the Russians was that Ivan IV took the title of Tsar, “Ceasar” when the Ottomans believed that, after Mehmed, THEY were the official successors of Caesar. https://twitter.com/EALTurner/status/1090975867583557632   Permalink 6:43 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb People forget that Soliman’s predecessor 130 years before, Bayazid, proclaimed himself Sultan-r-Rum (Roman Sultan), about a century before the fall of Constantinople. Another issue about “East-West”: the Byzantine church, until the 1800s, felt “East”, operated ~1000y under Islam. https://twitter.com/RenderuntoG/status/1090810150883971073   Permalink 6:00 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Article by @xriskology seems to find it generalized… https://www.salon.com/2019/01/26/steven-pinkers-fake-enlightenment-his-book-is-full-of-misleading-claims-and-false-assertions/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Note that our bone w/Pinker @sapinker is that his citations don’t match his statistical claims. He started with a conclusion, then tried to find data to confirm it. Here his central claim is bunk. Calling me bellicose/arrogant isn’t a scientific answer. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=670117070070069017069127022113081120031047031042055074081065126024120067069003090124049107118055103025009099127064108125084119028035061021010087093100074084092109046023010095001099096093092082102029123024102008084001102122009080080028117086117113021&EXT=pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25″>  pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25 Permalink 4:57 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gaussian case: a beautiful sqrt pi function a la Sirling. pic.twitter.com/VMsG0qfoeg Permalink 1:39 PM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exception: Mike B @MikeBloomberg… any other? Permalink 11:53 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A triangle inequality entailing partial correlation. pic.twitter.com/XlOivnHVbF Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/43G0ocDLcB Permalink 7:05 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A neat theorem about the asymmetry of correlation: if downside correlation is 100% and upside correlation is 0%, total correlation will show ~90%! Moral: 1) never use the word correlation under asymmetry 2) use psychometrics textbooks for winter fuel 3) close psych departments pic.twitter.com/sdOh3P5IRC Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@rationalwalk Nikki is now in the “private sector” where she will cash in on past favors, take down payments in future favors, and end up with a 8+ figure net worth from which to plot a return to “public service”. Rinse, repeat, path to riches and power. https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1090613317306122240   Permalink 6:59 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In a long career, I’ve (almost) never seen anyone get rich while employed (via bonuses/stock options, as w/bankers, CEOs, & rich slaves), & subsequently also make money on their own, in self employment. If you can’t make it on your own, it’s #rentseeking. Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Never ever call me a polymath. I am a probabilist. Nothing else. That’s sufficient. Please. Permalink 5:16 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@TrevMalley Nassim has a knack for getting to the real meat of the argument. These people may as well claim the Japanese as fellow whites if they’re going to use the achievements of the Ancient Mediterranean world as an argument for their grandeur Permalink 5:10 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Real squid ink smudges. pic.twitter.com/PBa0xZCgwX Permalink 4:59 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In other words, better say: “you mean Barbarian supremacists?” rather than imitate some SJW harangue. Permalink 4:52 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The way to deal with racists is to NEVER use moral arguments (they are insensitive to them). Just prove to them that their “race”… was comparatively sub-par for a very, very, very long time. Just like the current condition of “inferior” races. That, they can’t handle. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087763053515603968   Permalink 4:42 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@trishankkarthik Debate is for suckers Permalink 4:39 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Excited to find in my mailbox the book by @ErwanLeCorre from whom I’ve learned so much about natural fitness/#antifragility. pic.twitter.com/A57GM8yM9E Permalink 3:14 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong. Permalink 2:32 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@paulportesi Can somebody explain to me why the f*** should a utility company get bonuses? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1090352637478912002   Permalink 1:04 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am certain that over the past 5000 years, nobody has had to use an IQ test to choose between: surgeons, gardeners, physicists, hitmen, massage professionals, fortune tellers, spanish grammar specialists, or Swahili-to-Medieval Latin translators. https://twitter.com/fpingham/status/1090311581467058176   Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ WRAPUP These IQ psychologogs can’t answer my point abt elementary yet severe mathematical flaws w/the “IQ” measure. All I got is a downpour of BS from @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, @StuartJRitchie, @Ptetlock, the @Quillette boys “IQ”≠ Mental abilities https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=szXf0VLuQLg   Permalink 8:00 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild “another—doubtless very different—Boethius” @Hannah_Cristine totally got my review of @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/m33N7XjZ3Z Permalink 6:28 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@epigraphed Two people can be using the same word, meaning different things, yet continue the conversation, which is fine for coffee, but not when making decisions, particularly policy decisions affecting others. @nntaleb https://link.medium.com/yTtEwBiiJT   Permalink 3:25 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@LePoint Laetitia Strauch-Bonart – La bataille du QI Au grand dam de nombre d’experts, l’essayiste Nassim Nicholas Taleb remet en question la fiabilité et la pertinence des tests de quotient intellectuel >> http://bit.ly/2RUE5xX   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS”>  pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS Permalink 2:14 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@TheAnnaGat That is true. I showcase my communication and problem-solving skills by not having been blocked by @nntaleb (yet) even though I have responded to him. Permalink 12:53 PM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ is a scientific swindle –A brief explanation of the math https://youtu.be/szXf0VLuQLg   via @YouTube Permalink 7:50 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg #VolatilityMonster pic.twitter.com/zTJPea3WAi Permalink 6:05 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@ESFLiberty #LibertyCon19 is also featured on the newest edition of Journal des Libertés! Spot us on page 150! C’est très excité You can access the publication here http://bit.ly/2sQz9vl   Register now at http://LibertyCon.net  ! @SFL_France @lawrencewr @nntaleb @tomgpalmer ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886″>  pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886 Permalink 6:02 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@seltzer_c “Je suis pour le principe de subsidiarité qui me semble le plus efficace politiquement et économiquement. Politiquement, je suis localiste. L’individu ne doit être géré que par des gens qui vivent avec lui.” ⁦@nntaleb, ITW par ⁦@EugenieBastie⁩ http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 5:00 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- Another spuriousness in the neuroscience literature: Never trust any “evidence” from Neuroscience or psychobyllshutmetrics without redoing the math. We use as a standard Pinker’s deffender the charlatan @michaelshermer who pollutes intellectual life with pseudoempiricism. pic.twitter.com/CzLS41qVHa Permalink 4:39 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The answer and the Monte Carlo illustration shows how hard it is to explain that “randomness does not look random”. pic.twitter.com/ypPsnyJxNh Permalink 3:58 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ DU JOUR, around “Fooled by Randomness”. How to ferret out pseudo-empiricism (or where “empirical evidence is not empirical evidence”): What are the odds of getting a spurious “cancer cluster”? [FIRST CLASS TANDON TONIGHT] pic.twitter.com/pQnpeumSfz Permalink 3:34 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Ab alio expectes alteri quod feceris Permalink 7:24 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb GrecoLebanese proverb du jour: Lkalb mabi 3add khayyo (Caninas caninam non est -κυων κυνός ουχ απτεται) Permalink 7:06 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That psychobullshit: “psychometric intelligence” is not even intelligence, but some crappy number used 1) to employ psychologists, 2) put down some race. Permalink 6:18 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This is what nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_thaler never understood. Evolution is NOT an incentive but a FILTER. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1089675741288112128   Permalink 4:08 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/1WqDtJV4BM Permalink 12:50 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@financequant Effective tax rates across time: https://taxfoundation.org/taxes-rich-1950-not-high/   I am posting this not because I necessarily agree with all of the conclusions. The facts are that the proportion of income paid by the rich hasn’t changed as much as a naïve view of the tax rates would indicate. Permalink 11:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists don’t get PCAs under nonlinearity: if the factors correlate with any mental difficulties, the g will give the illusion of robustness WITHOUT being predictive OTS. It is easy to prove the g is a scientific swindle. ( I actually did) https://twitter.com/cfchabris/status/1089365903693762566   Permalink 11:26 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Vatican II reminds me a performance of Trovatore I attended in Chicago years ago. The singing was in English “for clarity”. I walked out 2 minutes into the opera. Conversely, Imagine the Beatles translated (and sung) into Slovenian. Permalink 11:00 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Taleb once tweeted when asked “If you had one thing to tell a child, what would it be?”. He replied “Time is smarter than you.” I like that. Permalink 9:22 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is capitalism that pulled billions out of poverty. Not vapid virtue signaling. Permalink 8:51 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In Fooled by Randomness: Vatican II destroyed Catholicism by translating the sacred into ordinary language. Meanwhile Judaism & Islam never debased the texts away from Hebrew and Arabic, resp. The current Bishop of Rome @Pontifex is continuing the destruction started in 1962. pic.twitter.com/gyvBHfv3Hx Permalink 8:13 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am so lucky 1) to be born in the Byzantine Orthodox Church, & 2) that we had a schism with the bishop of Rome in 1054. https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1089327127277621248   Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You can give a 99% probability that those who hate my style and find it arrogant are… psychologists or social scientists. https://twitter.com/andeanmckena/status/1089546744168415234   Permalink 7:38 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My black list doesn’t necessarily include people who have been to the Davos WEF. It includes those who have been to Davos more than once. Permalink 7:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The honest person isn’t the one who has never sinned. It’s the one who has never committed any sin more than once. Permalink 7:24 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Reading the excellent @peterfrankopan #thesilkroads and the more I read, the more I see proofs of something @nntaleb pointed out to me: it’s wealth that creates education, not the other way round. Primum vivere… pic.twitter.com/WHc3QQA9SW Permalink 6:10 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler: nerds use the ruler to measure the table; Fat Tonies (and real scientists) use the table to measure the ruler. https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1089258974501756928   Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My takeaway: people with inferior intelligence should refrain from engaging in smear campaigns. But, again, one needs to be of inferior intelligence to get into smear campaigns. Permalink 6:07 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Davos WEF tried & failed to smear me for calling them IAND (Int’l Association of Name Droppers): head of communication Adrian Monck @amonck kept claiming I don’t reference Popper in The Black Swan (Popper, referenced 53 times, has an entire chapter). https://twitter.com/GeorgeJNasr/status/962353415715246080   Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Kind of people that I block immediately as these type of fallacious questions destroy the debate. pic.twitter.com/o24gOqWRst Permalink 5:18 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@zinarosek As part of my legal work on the Genocide against Iraqi Christians, I have a list & files on neocon warcriminals who played key role in the Genocide. John Bolton & Elliott Abrams (laughing evilly in video) are both on the list. @POTUS’ admin has hired both. pic.twitter.com/9dAUHPgO1r Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOTE TO THE ALT-RIGHT: I got plenty of ethnic hatred by quack-Molyneux/Charles Murray’s crowd. I am not complaining, but for Baal’s sake, 1) I am Greek Orthodox (not Muslim) and… 2) Lebanon has no desert. It’s on the Med. So please remember: Lebanon has no desert. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/0rqo9De7Aj Permalink 5:11 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@NonMeek ”…70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the 2nd generation, and a whopping 90% by the third generation.” Shocking read for those who still believe there are safe asset classes. https://twitter.com/mebfaber/status/1088505078946787329   Permalink 12:14 AM – 25 Jan 2019

@Firsou Someone who takes no risks should not throw stones at people who have offloaded most of the initial risk to themselves. Entrepreneurs are heroes. Permalink 12:26 PM – 24 Jan 2019

@olivierglinec La bataille du QI dans le point aujourd’hui/IQ battle in the french paper Le Point pic.twitter.com/HuztqjXhIx Permalink 8:04 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@DrCirillo In studying war casualties and other historical data, you have to treat them as imprecise random observations. If you don’t, all your subsequent analyses will be flawed. cc @nntaleb Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@EugenieBastie Mon interview avec Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb ) iconoclaste et génial auteur du “Cygne noir” et d'”Antifragile” : «La modernité hait l’incertitude, elle ne voudrait que des bons élèves» http://premium.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 3:16 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Some work on this is being done by complexity physicist @yaneerbaryam . Yaneer can you tweetstorm? https://twitter.com/otrasenda_ac/status/1088204786908852225   Permalink 3:13 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@ryanpflynn This is what happens when Nerdified Public-Health Bureacrats come up w/ a “solution” to a nerdified problem. Go play outside. @nntaleb @Mangan150 https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1088163109133578240   Permalink 12:07 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@fermatslibrary A visual proof why 1+3+5+…+(2n-1)=n² = Permalink 5:45 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Studies of the handwriting of Mozart, Einstein, or Fat Tony are nothing but fetichism & reliquiae worship passing for scholarship —residual paganistic practices in a pseudo-atheist society. And state funded, of course. https://twitter.com/britishlibrary/status/1088063054716252160   Permalink 5:35 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that Beirut is starting to have the Miami look. You can’t travel anymore. pic.twitter.com/f87oDVsbyO Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Appendix to new book on why Black Scholes doesn’t work under power laws pic.twitter.com/3ghxFlQo33 Permalink 10:01 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gerrymandering based on later categories: There was Christendom, vs Land of Islam and we are using the most recent categorization. “Europe” has traditionally started with Christianity’s limit on the East & (North of the Med) Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087770487462203393   Permalink 9:59 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087708976261808129   Permalink 9:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Stop the fake news + historical gerymandering promoted by quack-quack Molyneux & Charles Murray: Before 1600 Northern “Europe” contributed to ~ nothing. Nazi “Aryans” appropriated the growth of the Med/S. W. Eurasia by making (Ancient) Greeks members of the same “race”. Quacks. pic.twitter.com/MB96KybY9V Permalink 9:24 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@Scale_Trust — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FNfhf5391v Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@iosif_lazaridis Sad that people have to waste their time for this: “20 of 49 statements presented to me for review on January 2 were incorrect, and 27 of the 36 statements presented to me for review on January 5 were incorrect.” Five Corrections to The New York Times https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/five-corrections-new-york-times   Permalink 6:30 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It happened. 2009. https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087705510432964613   Permalink 5:44 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb And of course hear that the President of China is talking about Black Swan without having to show up to the Davos meeting of the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers) https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1087638941984006150   Permalink 5:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@imleslahdin – You know what one should call a test that encourages poor statisticd hygiene? a “statistics deficit test” (SD test) instead of an “intelligent quotient test” – @lpachter Very interesting read if you have been following the @nntaleb IQ threads. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2018/06/04/low-iq-scores-predict-excellence-in-data-science/   Permalink 9:55 PM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Statistic for the Four Population Test https://www.academia.edu/38192150/Statistic_for_the_Four_Population_Test?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 11:50 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@pacha111 “During the collapse of the Sui Dynasty there was a bandit lord named Meng Haigong who had a special hatred for scholars and bureaucrats. Whenever he took a highborn captive he’d carefully *misquote* a Confucian classic in front of them. If they pointed out the error, they died” Permalink 8:27 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- Something unknown by *IQ idiots w/sinister theories* (s.a. @charlesmurray @primalpoly): NONLINEARITY. Variables that correlate only ½ the time show ρ >.855 (Gaussian case) but rises to ρ>.92 in absense of tapering of tail values. These are basic notions. Probability is hard. pic.twitter.com/8iQHo9cARm Permalink 5:28 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1- SIMPLEST CASE: Correlation with a constant will show a positive correlation. But there is a loooooooot worse. pic.twitter.com/DFhzYsLqp3 Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (this time, difficult) There are many known examples of fake independence: random variables X & Y can be more dependent than shown in correlation. (x & Y=x^x for instance) Can you find instances of X & Y that more correlated than dependent? Permalink 4:20 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “A half-man (or, rather, half-person) is not someone who does not have an opinion, just someone who does not take risks for it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Insight by @ArthurB about IQ as an inverse metric: Gifted pple exhibit skills-specific competence: geometry, drawing, algebra, patents, wealth, creations… The subset of [1) Losers who can’t do anything & 2) & scored high on IQ] will show their “IQ”. So IQ = adverse selection. Permalink 5:02 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@Iluvpizzayum I have a business. I hate rent-seekers. Permalink 12:34 AM – 20 Jan 2019

NYT, Osteocalcin, Lebanon, Reforestation, Bayesianistas | Twitter

On the Shadow Moments of Apparently Infinite-Mean Phenomena Authors Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Pasquale Cirillo

@nntaleb The idea of #skininthegame is that nobody shd cause risk to others without impunity. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1026113430376337408   Permalink 9:36 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BS vending @josephinequinn is spreading theory that “Phoenicians didn’t exist”(loved by Arabists) on anachronistic acct of absence of national identity/self-designator (No Ph. integrated centralized rule). The Neanderthals never existed by same analysis. Same for Elephants… Permalink 9:29 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid This is the updated Outline of the paper “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art”. I would like to thank all those who send me comments and suggestions for improvements. I hope I have incorporated them correctly, given the constrain of not having > than 4 bullet points pic.twitter.com/wbIVSfQSHU Permalink 7:59 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam The Precautionary Principle is considered by Court of Justice of the EU as an anchor of European Law in ruling that affects use of CRISPR genetic modification https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8f60f1b4-447f-435b-a3fc-5a2e2539a4d3   @normonics @nntaleb @rupertread @PrecPrinciple Permalink 5:23 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@brian_trollz You harassed a man who had nothing to do with Bitcoin, based on nothing but what could only be interpreted as “evidence” in the mind of a deranged stalker, and you enjoyed being supported in that? Good to know. Permalink 6:15 PM – 4 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid I am working on part of a paper on “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art” to be part of the Special Issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on the M4 Competition.. Any comments, suggestions, differences, objections will be welcomed. pic.twitter.com/iWXY365hI5 Permalink 10:10 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the upper portion of the Qadisha (pronounced here “2odisha”) valley today. You can see the rising tree-line from reforestation. pic.twitter.com/s8I0ch94R4 Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The mountain had been terraced to farm staples (mostly wheat) & trees were of no use (except for fruit bearing ones). Unseen positive side effect of Ottoman Christian Millets inheritance laws. Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@normonics “risk denialists” is a better term. I’m going to go with that Better reveals their standing as ideologues https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1025744525841653760   Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This forest in Northern Lebanon (7adat) is owed to the fact that it was agrigultural land & the owners died w/the Titanic. Nobody could get the right papers to farm. pic.twitter.com/TPHvfzcKwB Permalink 4:37 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@EHSANI22 With all mixed reactions to @RaniaKhalek article below, it’s important to stay focused on the subject of reconciliation as a policy tool compared to the national land top down approach of Geneva that was pushed by a number of policy makers at the time. Small is beautiful @nntaleb https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1025386863618605056   Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Aug 2018

@primalpoly BTW, I don’t want the @NYTimesPR to fire Jeong. Demanding a firing implies some faith that a company could rediscover its ethical compass. Rather, I’m supporting a consumer boycott of a moribund newspaper that’s proven itself wickedly prejudiced & hopelessly partisan. Permalink 11:52 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It’s not like when the NYT condoned/caused the Iraq invasion out of ignorance / arrogance. This is a blatant violation of fundamental ethics. Permalink 7:50 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Never compromise on fundamental ethics. Never. Be honorable and never read anything in the @nytimes Permalink 7:16 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With left to right @PZalloua, Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, & Hiram Corm (son of Charles Corm) at the Charles Corm foundation. pic.twitter.com/UXd9FGIdtP Permalink 6:29 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@Once_there_was_ https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   A great provoking read by @nntaleb especially in current climate. Will always remember @nytimes apology letter. Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Too disgusted to talk to the @nytimes pic.twitter.com/MtwmRr2Yaz Permalink 2:27 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stability is owed to the following: Christians believe Lebanon is the first stop in the West (Europa was Phoenician); Sunnis believe Lebanon is the last stop in the East; Shiites (now) believe Lebanon is just Lebanon. Permalink 2:18 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@NickSzabo4 The more San Francisco code censors this topic, the more I’m going to retweet the many great censored tweets on it. The New York Times has with no remorse hired a pathological racist and sexist fuck to edit and write on technology and the people who have or are building it. https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1025240297876451333   Permalink 11:23 PM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I guess the NYT didn’t “fact check” historical pictures https://twitter.com/decafquest/status/1024516715567300608?s=21   Permalink 6:27 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The Shouf mountains this morning: much greener than in 1900. pic.twitter.com/VRMfD6HrnK Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistics is not being fooled by randomness, not reading coffee cups and neo-astrology. If you don’t get it, then you get blocked. Permalink 2:07 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I won’t say what it is; the mother of all paleo food in an Armenian-Aleppo rstrnt in Central Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/g24zupcrbJ Permalink 12:32 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@Ekaitzsaies ANNOUNCEMENT: On the 10th of October we are going to organise a meet-up in Orio (Basque Country) to talk about @nntaleb ´s ideas. Permalink 11:31 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So far in 2018, 6 peer-reviewed papers, 2 with @DrCirillo, 4 as single author. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1024670339484344320   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Menu written in Lebanez pic.twitter.com/fDaN0bhrje Permalink 4:24 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With the archeologist and Phoenicologist Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, who turned out to be the father of twitter friend ⁦@BoustanyMazen⁩ (and son of mega-erudite Fouad Ephrem) pic.twitter.com/DHylfAOmwx Permalink 4:14 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) We know that osteocalcin restores muscle endurance. Muscles strength are less investigated. Again fughedabout mechanisms, take phenomenology: @CoachRippetoe reports that only heavy weight bearing exercises you do standing up count. pic.twitter.com/KPJCxDm8xU Permalink 1:04 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The bone also regulates memory and mental functions via osteocalcin (Karsenty). SPECULATION: can healthier bones for overweight pple explain the all-cause-mortality effect? POLICY: just follow the phenomenology that healthy pplw have healthy bones and ignore mechanisms? Permalink 12:47 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Antifragile on health of bones: bones are part of the endocrine system, not some engineering structure. You don’t improve your bone with exercise machine. @Mangan150 attributes the fertility crisis to correlative (Om 6), not causative (osteopenia) #Complexity #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/rPWu2JLqg6 Permalink 12:44 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria controls the monoculture narrative. https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1024013693946933249   Permalink 11:06 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And avoid the fossil fuel propaganda: the greening does not come from CO2 but rather from irrigation… correlates to GDP. Permalink 8:03 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So another BEFORE-AFTER, Deir l 2amar 1900-2018 pic.twitter.com/xmsrFETVjx Permalink 6:39 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Took this picture yesterday in Kfar7azir coming from the Med. The hill was completely barren during my childhood. And this is a picture of Deir el 2amar in ~1900 pic.twitter.com/DhZuZjoxmw Permalink 6:31 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The problem with low-skilled intellektshuals and journos s.a. @robGmacfarlane and the “brilliant” @ABarnardNYT is that they think they understand technical things & impose fortune cookie thinking on Leb ecology or the Syrian war. BS Vendors https://twitter.com/RobGMacfarlane/status/1022362765963550720   Permalink 6:24 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@SvetlanaBogom13 Flying up high and still in earthly colors. Alexander’s photo from his last winter on this plain@CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/yb66KaOrTf Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/ysV1mk5Mmp Permalink 4:20 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Geoff and Vince have a powerful view of the naturalistic preferences of city dwellers. https://twitter.com/geoffreydgraham/status/1024060970715566080   Permalink 4:35 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) In other words, we have to live with the fact that some languages may not have hierarchical family trees. Permalink 3:28 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Even Greenberg’s broader classification of branches is, scientifically speaking, grossly pulled out of a hat. (We are seeing some laterality uncovered by @Safaitic, which means ignore “dialects” as “branches” for now and focus on something structural). Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) @iosif_lazaridis mentioned how older, “just so” taxonomies turned out to not map to the trees made *on the fly* before phylogenetics (sequncng) My bone is tagging Levantine as *branch of*Arabic as proposed by @PhDniX and @lameensouag rather than, the reverse or *laterality* pic.twitter.com/n5N21QE6n3 Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) The point I stressed is that, unlike genetics that is based on hard science, we should ignore traditional linguistics with its”on the fly” classifications, particularly the horribly sorry state of Semitic linguistics. https://twitter.com/PZalloua/status/1022301220113920001   Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Current Lebanon has been mysteriously internally stable (now for three decades) partly because every single ethnoreligious group is now a minority (Christians, Shiites, Sunnis, etc.) There is neither minority nor majority rule (Tocqueville’s dream). @PZalloua Permalink 2:40 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Defending @elonmusk … but still the waist is thin. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1023956974252240896   Permalink 8:46 AM – 30 Jul 2018

@DavidBCollum Seems to me that Stephen Hadley, Ratheon director, should be investigated, if appropriate, tried for treason, and, if guilty, hung from the neck until dead… https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-28/robert-fisk-i-traced-missile-casings-syria-back-their-original-sellers   Permalink 8:21 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On the way. https://twitter.com/ban_kanj/status/1023570127902523392   Permalink 2:08 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 Do any Roman/Greek Experts in epigraphy know what this says ? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/s9y87OVP1l Permalink 12:54 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For nitpickers what I call Northern Phoenicia is North of Byblos. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/391SUDxJQz Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On my way to Northern Phoenicia. This is the first plane trip in years without the company of math quizzes by Maestro @CutTheKnotMath Alexander Bogomolny left us three weeks ago. Permalink 7:58 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@J_MaestreVidal As a researcher that usually resort on forecasting solutions, I have drawn countless times on the @spyrosmakrid time series collections. Today I had the opportunity to deal with the M4 dataset. Veredict: they did it again! Brilliant work, as always #MachineLearning #AI #forecast pic.twitter.com/sJ9wZWZXKD Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Just as we coined “pedophrasty” as a term to indicate the use of salient images of children by charlatans to sell their fakes (it suspends criticism), we need a term for the squalid argument “for the poor” to sell such crap as GMOs. Penophrasty? Ptochophrasty? Latin better? https://twitter.com/calebwatney/status/1023292528924282881   Permalink 4:59 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@foodtechhacker Nature represents approximately NP strong solutions. We don’t get this. We need to accept it. But if we did, we’d have to reject nearly everything that makes up our economy. If you don’t understand NP, read here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem   @nntaleb @SeloSlav Permalink 5:25 PM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Cedar trees may have a problem, but in an ecology some species will always be maladapted in a changing environment and others will thrive. Permalink 10:42 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The NYT article by @ABarnardNYT (characteristically) misrepresents the environmental situation in Lebanon & might discourage the overactive Lebanese evironmentalists. There has been a significant reforestation of the place. (Thread) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1014165996083580931   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Fat Tailed Random Matrices (TECHNICAL INCERTO, Vol 1) https://www.dropbox.com/s/bq2lhmoo9v686ap/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%201.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nUkeH73PgY”>  pic.twitter.com/nUkeH73PgY Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@psi_theta “Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” — @nntaleb An unreliable/dumb source gives more information about itself than the information it forwards. Permalink 4:01 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@CCavafy C.P. Cavafy, “According to the Formulas of Ancient Greco–Syrian Magicians”, translated by @DMendelsohn1960 #poetry #Greece pic.twitter.com/gnyEqw2wBU Permalink 3:50 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A point that this ignorant Matti Ilmanen @milmanen didn’t get. Permalink 5:32 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@RonPaul Come see Nassim Nicholas Taleb and many other GREAT speakers at my Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s “Media & War” conference on August 18th in Washington, DC! More info and tickets: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/rpi-peace-and-prosperity-2018-media-war-tickets-46590140364   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jUsbpm0pvo”>  pic.twitter.com/jUsbpm0pvo Permalink 1:29 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This said, I also insisted on the role of priors in (some) medical decisions to manage false positives/negatives. Permalink 9:48 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Found a Tesla supercharger on Boston-NY near artisanal burger rstrnt (keto-friendly) that serves espresso. Nice break for twitter fights with Bayesianistas. pic.twitter.com/kUqkvGbJWA Permalink 9:39 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@cdipaola62 I think Taleb actually said, “F—k Bayes.” Which made a lot more sense to me than some of the equations…glad he was there to interpret for me. Permalink 9:20 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The idea behing “Bayesian” approaches is that if 2 pple have different priors, they will eventually converge to the same estimation, via updating. A “wrong” prior is therefore OK. Under fat tails, if you have the wrong prior, you never get there. (Taleb & Pilpel, 2004) Gabish? https://twitter.com/davidsarac/status/1022643234160357376   Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@kavehdaneshvar Not every day you get so much complexity in one place! @nntaleb #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/r6Hwf20DuQ Permalink 6:41 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@djpardis Risk, fat tails, and precaution workshop at #ICCS2018 “Longevity comes from a volatile heartbeat” —@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Zqhn84JpqC Permalink 6:01 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@nntaleb His gadness ⁦@GadSaad⁩ in the workshop. pic.twitter.com/mcZZxiXcvX Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Alexander the Great makes @realDonaldTrump look like Mother Teresa.” Permalink 1:16 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Free advice: the lunch crowd has decided that the next @black_swan_man comic should have incompetent supervillain @R_Thaler who tries to nudge @nntaleb into trouble @normonics Permalink 9:40 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Nonlinearity in travel time, like @nntaleb said in Antifragile #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/RuqlB27Ozg Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@HardeepSPuri Also took time out to meet my friend, the famous author of several critically acclaimed bestsellers @nntaleb I have always enjoyed our intellectually stimulating discussions. This one was after a long time & first since I became a Minister. (3/3) pic.twitter.com/waDQOkVTBN Permalink 4:28 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@PZalloua Discussing Levantine genetics, and the spread of the Semitic language with L. Lazaridis, D. Reich and NN Taleb over a Mediterranean meal! @nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis pic.twitter.com/F7kpUCXyHU Permalink 7:02 PM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Almost there… https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1022113434828189696   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@LetsWorkHappy Learning more about fat tails from @nntaleb at #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/ihRaT6t2wM Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@mZargham .@nntaleb — tearing apart ‘scientific’ concepts built based on empirically invalid mathematical assumptions. starting over with more realistic mathematical assumptions to derive new principles. #ICCS2018 justifying my decisions to favor product based dynamic decision policies! pic.twitter.com/qhMkkrxl3k Permalink 6:50 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@RhysLindmark 3/1 @nntaleb begins his talk with this overview: “What happens when you look at risk *dynamically* not *statically*?” #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@DTFinegood .@nntaleb “p values are not scientific”. #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/mFPFv3S5HV Permalink 6:28 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/4fzFByyz7U Permalink 6:06 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@EdmondAwad Twitter coming to real life at #ICCS18 @nntaleb @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane pic.twitter.com/kY5NN65Zwq Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD with the crew @nntaleb @PZalloua @trishankkarthik in Boston pic.twitter.com/Kmb6N4gaQC Permalink 6:04 PM – 24 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Respect for the firefighters and #PrayForGreece Permalink 7:06 AM – 24 Jul 2018

@Ekaitzsaies Hi @GuruAnaerobic ! Mr @urtatses and I had our first meeting this afternoon to start organizing a meet-up in the Basque Country to talk about @nntaleb ‘s ideas this November. Classroom Barbells First 2 speakers (him & I) Are you joining us? Anyone else? pic.twitter.com/Tpe2s7nALT Permalink 11:22 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends, for the paperback edition, we are looking for comments on Skin in the Game from people with Skin in the Game (not reviewers), that is actually users. If you have a comment, please give us your first name and city of residence. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/6vj1mbNNJT Permalink 9:15 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad and @PZalloua at #ICCS2018 pic.twitter.com/iP7KtiXzGm Permalink 7:42 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@MimeticValue #ExistentialRisk #EffectiveAltruism #TemporalEmpathy pic.twitter.com/5b35BihdAf Permalink 3:22 PM – 22 Jul 2018

Psychology, Noah Smith, Kapish?, Saudi Barbaria, Bernie, Ottomans, Yugo, Lebanon | Twitter

@MaxAbrahms The problem isn’t that Hillary makes foreign policy mistakes, but that she makes the same mistake over & over again:https://twitter.com/capreble/status/723849697245442048   Permalink 5:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بمالطه بيكتبوا لغه ساميه بالحرف اللاتيني @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 11:47 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb La2. Sa3iid 3akl kan ma7sour billebnene. Ana bilshami (ye3n3 el suriyye w se2er el mashre2 bima biyon el daffe elgharbiyye.) @ZJoureir Permalink 11:11 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/ mitlma el telyene ballash bi-Dante 3eyzin 7ada yektub adab bil-shami. Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb El3uroube wellgha el3arabiyye killa tezwir tari5e. El-shami ligha lawa7da bte2rab el-3arabe wel-arame, 3ayzin niktub kitub fiya latballesh. Permalink 10:55 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Kurzweil is not dangerous at all: the fool will give a test case of failure to outsmart opaque & complex systems.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/723909943796076546   Permalink 9:32 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fake kebbe: made out of a vegan paste (w/fennel) for Orthodox lent.pic.twitter.com/FWeAiJfTF8 Permalink 3:10 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Pleased to see the Arabic script phased out in Lebanon, mostly Christian areas. Next: replace Arabic by #Levantinepic.twitter.com/VGGkHiYGvI Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Apr 2016

@Peepsqueak Turns out Scientific American is a Monsanto shill! http://huff.to/1Sp5mNQ   |@nntaleb rt @PhonkArtpic.twitter.com/430C40CmKN Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mediterranean mezze (tapas) with local araq ouzo Beirut style. The Mediterranean is about small plates.pic.twitter.com/5a6UymSzLQ Permalink 11:17 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Letting the media monitor itself & influence policy is letting those at the bottom in both streetsmarts & schoolsmarts run the world. Permalink 1:57 AM – 21 Apr 2016

@Hayder_alKhoei From Pakistan to Mali, Saudi-financed madrasas have popped up and cultivate religious extremism & terrorism http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/21/opinion/obama-in-saudi-arabia-exporter-of-oil-and-bigotry.html   #pt Permalink 10:29 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Information is like a *swelling* balloon. It grows with time.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722591957030076416   Permalink 11:19 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Answer: If s[x]>0 for {x:F>1/2} => \int is >0. Background:The grrrreat M. Gell-Mann said work with prob outside [0,1]. It is just a weight! Permalink 5:23 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Said to be the Aramaic used by Egyptian admins. Countries didn’t switch to Ar. immed.;adapted Aramaic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/718927788925804544   @HanySonbaty Permalink 5:17 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Achemenid Aramaic in Egypt (“Imperial Aramaic”) @HanySonbatypic.twitter.com/9gqjcsu42y Permalink 5:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Egypt spoke some Aramaic for ~1200 years before the Arab invasion. @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:50 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now the core of the problem (still jetlagged!)pic.twitter.com/wbD8nXQZgB Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@adnanhobalah #syria @asadabukhalil @PierreABISAAB مش لازم نضل تاركينون يسرحوا و يمرحوا مدعي الخبره الاكيديميه ببلاد الشامhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/722835760160706561   Permalink 4:06 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, first is true, second is false, but reveals an important inequality.pic.twitter.com/bQ3ZizKQ86 Permalink 4:25 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Aramean came to Egypt before Arabic (“mayya”, etc.) via the Persian invasion. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @HanySonbaty Permalink 4:16 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Removed more typos (jet lag). Proved first one, second TK.pic.twitter.com/GwKiSBSPrS Permalink 4:11 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Deleted tweets with typos and added conditions.pic.twitter.com/4FSKZCdf6n Permalink 3:58 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 7akiyna a2rab 3al-Arame minel 3arabehttps://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/722916556334714880   Permalink 3:42 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Antifragility and scale.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/710513143387185152   Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I got tipped off when @janinedigi (innocently) tweeted atrocities by Assad that were pictures of children in Lybia.https://twitter.com/JacksonDiehl/status/722829299657494528   Permalink 11:12 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: When a ME think tank defines itself as “nonpartisan”, it is funded by Saudi Barbari/other Wahabi states.pic.twitter.com/IxQ2Tqp3eT Permalink 10:14 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am just conveying what everyone who doesn’t have a Phd in bullshittology called pol sci knows.https://twitter.com/raheeln/status/722823972035936256   Permalink 10:07 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Lebanon sipping arak & heard something to got me enraged at think thanks. How Saudi Arabia captured Washingtonhttp://www.vox.com/2016/3/21/11275354/saudi-arabia-gulf-washington?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=feature%3Atop&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter   Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Debunking some spin about the Syrian warhttp://www.joshualandis.com/blog/presidents-al-assads-first-speech-an-insiders-account/   Permalink 9:05 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic. For a vacation place that’s not spoiled, not corrupt: no ski slopes, & no beaches. Permalink 7:21 AM – 20 Apr 2016

@nntaleb To keep a balloon under water, you need to spend more & more energy.The DC lobbyist for Saudi Arabia can’t stop thishttp://nypost.com/2016/04/17/how-us-covered-up-saudi-role-in-911/   Permalink 6:05 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@DavidBCollum Lindsey Graham admits he’s a complete idiot/wuss/Saudi protectorhttps://twitter.com/thehill/status/722564703055167488   Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Someone saying “ethics is good for success” is missing the entire point of ethics. Permalink 9:10 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Saudi prince arrested in Leb for drug smugling. Saudis blackmailed Leb to release him. Leb said no, pull your $$.US will have same pride. Permalink 12:21 AM – 19 Apr 2016

@nntaleb US says Saudi government has nothing to do w 9/11; only “members” of Saudi establ/Royal family that…run the placehttps://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/722251489494700032   Permalink 10:31 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I am on my way to Beirut one of the very few places where Saudi Barbaria cannot reach me. Permalink 2:51 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is biggggg! They are progressively losing the state of denial that Saudi Arabia WAS indeed funding Jihadists.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/722172847351848961   Permalink 2:28 PM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb DEBATE: Ethical to give a women-only scholarship for the risk certificate? http://realworldrisk.com   @stevenstrogatz Permalink 9:39 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The EU developed into a tool for the bureaucratic class and lobbyists, hence as such will blow up. @hughhopper Permalink 9:30 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) The point is that if the Treasury needs junk math to convince you to stay, they did not find real aguments against it. @hughhopper Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @tomstafford, again I asked you for a SINGLE counterample of a psych paper that got my Th. 1. One single will do.https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008   Permalink 9:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Observe in my expurgating the system of BS-operator @Noahpinion how ethics follow the tenacious minority rule http://fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   Permalink 8:04 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb one reaction to the black swan piece http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-18/one-trader-finally-loses-it   Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did write that book. It is called Antifragile.https://twitter.com/EngineerDiet/status/722068382800035842   Permalink 7:27 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb “Even without fat tails” is like saying “assume you remove one’s head”. @noise_random @rorysutherland @CravenPartners @Gerald_Ashley Permalink 7:18 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Why the UK Treasury equations are, mathematically, BS:in Silent Risk @CravenPartners @rorysutherland @Gerald_Ashleypic.twitter.com/WoJrOH3lCi Permalink 6:11 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Page to protect pple from Noah Smith @noahpinion BS operator and troll wBloomberg megaphone http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html  pic.twitter.com/6kaEwla8l6 Permalink 5:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Another oddity: the Ottomans until 1800s preserved Orthodoxy (deal w/Patriarch): Populations under them were Orth (Serbia vs Croatia) Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Machiavelli boasts of “bloodless wars”: knights had tough armor so were more like bar fights! technology=murder @alexapostolides Permalink 3:48 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My thesis director was a woman and there were 2 woman mathematicians on my committee. @stevenstrogatz Permalink 3:46 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nation State: Pre-unification of Italy battles were frequent but small e.g. Anghiari (~900 v.), Molinella (~600). WW1: 650,000 Italians died Permalink 3:33 AM – 18 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nero di Seppia. Last time before Orthodox Easter.pic.twitter.com/pLvxxQCQtk Permalink 4:57 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not true. Not twice the intensity. More like … 10 times (part for those who are offensive to the general public).https://twitter.com/pauld1981/status/721810180162203648   Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We need to prevent Bloomberg from becoming a trolling platform https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/noah2.pdf   @davidjshipley @noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TnlXHbHFxW Permalink 3:24 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is the recent rigorous examination of the Christians under Umayads: Not so rosy. https://oi.uchicago.edu/research/publications/lamine/lamine-1-christians-and-others-umayyad-state   @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We know know that the Dhimi status was periodically rescinded, particularly under the abbasides @BewilderedCopt @beshymike Permalink 12:50 PM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Syria will have the same cyle as post Habsgurg Eastern Eur: after merger, Yugo back into more homogeneous states.https://twitter.com/sodronen/status/721760131743150081   Permalink 11:03 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A simple point in the article that explains why @Noahpinion failed his academic career.pic.twitter.com/7tINfCUHxi Permalink 10:54 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Historical rigor => comparing mores year by year: compare Ottomans 1480 to Europe 1480 (inquisition). Kapish? @drubald Permalink 10:36 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Irony of history:the more the Ottomans got Westernized,w/West structures/laws,the more they killed Christians @lilbabykeffiyeh @candela3paz Permalink 10:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In 1800s “The Mohammedan Wrld” was represented by a Greek FM.1980s:Egypt did not grant a Copt, Boutros-Ghali the rank of minister @beshymike Permalink 10:16 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Oddities of history: a Greek, Caratheodory Efendi (father of the mathematician) representing “the Mohamedan world”pic.twitter.com/awhReWggG2 Permalink 9:58 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Ottomans weren’t likeable; but Arabs were vastly more intolerant of Christians than the Ottomans. @beshymike @iShabi7a Permalink 9:47 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I vote for half of Bernie, for foreign policy.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/721733402714615808   Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Partly but remember Ottomans welcomed Sephardic Jews (Tessaloniki) & had Greek prime ministers. Not all black and white @lilbabykeffiyeh Permalink 9:11 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The very idea of Turkey as “nationality” was absent bef. Greek indep 1820 (even then, subjects), dev. after German and Italian unifications, Permalink 8:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You mean do NOT put probabilistic rigor into decision theory? @tomstafford Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Nobody is saying Ottomans were social workers. But they tolerated minorities so long as there was $, unlike Turkish nationalists. @airdummer Permalink 8:19 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb In Antifragile I discuss switch from imperial and tolerant Ottoman Empire to ethnic Turkish nationalism of late 19th Century with massacres. Permalink 8:12 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It Christian minorities have survived in the Levant, it is thanks to policies of the Ottoman empire. Reversal started with nation-states. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Russia has nuclear weapons. The US has nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has a large royal family with prediabetes. @Alea_ Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb And the Saudis already have a lot of gold,and Euro-based investments. They don’t have to sell $600 bn. And real estate…@sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Those who sell “precious” metals will receive … $$ it is a myth that money “leaves”, only price pressure @sanatanabhasha Permalink 5:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Lakens your paper is a verbose handwaving looping soup;I require rigorous mathematical presentation. @lakens @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 5:21 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@LaplaceHomeBoi @AdrianSterry @nntaleb @RudyHavenstein I propose the ‘NNT-value’. This measure the power of propagating bullsh*t until @nntaleb catch you Permalink 4:31 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith @Noahpinion will resign from Bloomberg. He cannot use it a troll-platform @TonySandos @AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein Permalink 3:37 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I could find a SINGLE book or paper in the psych of decisions that gets the point of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  https://twitter.com/tomstafford/status/721621901089579008   Permalink 3:34 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Show a single COUNTEREXAMPLE of a psychology paper that does not violate the theorem 1. @jlmcht Permalink 3:33 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@AdrianSterry @RudyHavenstein @nntaleb NNT responds to assholes .0001% of the time, it’s just that instead of telling them to f*** off,he destroys them Permalink 2:35 AM – 17 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The other accounting pbm w/Saudi Arabia: by the time they start selling their reserves, now only $600b will be reduced by $300 bn Permalink 7:30 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Finally getting a compliment about Saudi Arabia.https://twitter.com/LongShortTrader/status/721525231173636096   Permalink 7:28 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Never hit the Obama administration, threatened by Saudi Arabia’s divestment, to ask: where will you put your $750bn? In Kuwaiti Dinars? Permalink 7:23 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Where we get more coherence from the Daily News than the “intellectual” NYT.https://twitter.com/GEsfandiari/status/721513453383524352   Permalink 7:10 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith were you”resigned” from Stony Brook for inability to do research or did you depart on your own? Was Bloomberg informed? @Noahpinion Permalink 6:07 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Added more to paper showing equity premium puzzle is miscalculated, an extension of Th 1. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf  .pic.twitter.com/iZQuxGEpzV Permalink 3:42 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Democracy Shmemocracy, vague and gamable constructs. What matters is governance, absence of an agency problem, absence of rent seeking. Permalink 3:06 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s amazing is how little Americans seem to care about Saudi involvement in 9/11, except for the widows https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/721451629644529664  . Permalink 2:37 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith so you wrote a critique of Karthik Arthreya’s book w/o having read it? “On the disgusting side” @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/UvSyrigQPU Permalink 2:12 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@Buy_Hold_Drink @nntaleb deals smackdown to @Noahpinion over shotty reporting. If reporters question the people, who questions the reporters? NN, that’s who Permalink 1:19 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith are there other books you’ve written abt w/o having read & if so, which ones? Or do you want someone else to reveal? @Noahpinion Permalink 1:11 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Noah Smith’s credibility is now gone (more TK) but by stopping at Bloomberg I would be letting down authors victimized by media. @Noahpinion Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Apr 2016

@DFSalbatross @nntaleb there is nothing i enjoy more than seeing you go after people like this. of all applications of your philos, ethics most important Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So, Mr Smith, if someone asks you to mispresent something, and you complied, it ceases to be a misrepresentation? @Noahpinion Permalink 11:48 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Journos feel ENTITLED to write anything they can spin about you. Try to make them accountable & they freak out.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721392300446711808   Permalink 10:42 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb So you mean the dean encouraged you to hide you were no longer prof. to gain credibility as columnist, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 10:39 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I have the means, the audience & the will, I am morally obligated to vindicate authors terrorized by the press & make it accountable Permalink 10:10 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith, “a year leave?”. Your dean said in Jan: “he is not with us” & “he is not coming back”. Was he lying?https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721087624333492225   Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb OK, OK. Saints can be dangerous. So I prefer Saint Ron Paul to Saint Bernie though they have similar foreign policy.https://twitter.com/DoubleEagle49/status/721365398357020673   Permalink 8:52 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Not abt wrong but about being ETHICAL & fixing erroneous statements. Press is accountable. Kapish?@PaulThomasiii @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 8:43 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Breach of Journ Ethics by Bloomberg View & @Noahpinion; staff refusal to correct @davidjshipley cc:@MikeBloombergpic.twitter.com/kcDiYCud3c Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb An author *knows* if someone has read his/her book or bullshitting. In the case of Noah Smith it is blatant. @BenGoldN @Noahpinion Permalink 7:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@zerohedge @nntaleb he wrote a bunch of comments about ZH without actually having read any of it Permalink 6:20 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb They catching up to the fact that Noah Smith @noahpinion has written comments on The Black Swan without reading it.https://twitter.com/opento/status/721326705185570816   Permalink 6:19 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Try to mentally construct someone with the integrity of Bernie Sanders but with your political opinions. He raises standards! @saifedean Permalink 6:14 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Here is an explicit distribution of P-Hacking, as well as problems with power. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532v3   @JPdeRuiter @Neuro_Skeptic Permalink 6:13 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Sainthood: financially & personally uncorruptible, pure moral integrity. He can be right, or wrong, can’t be bought.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721317569446178816   Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders has all the attributes of a secular saint. Regardless of the effects of his policies, he brings sainthood to public service. Permalink 5:41 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith tried to use his “academic” status to impart a scholarly credibility to his article. Scholarly he is not. @foxyforecaster @Noahpinion Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Fighting terrorism while protecting perpetrators: The Obama admin compromises moral values: ever happened before?pic.twitter.com/byoc7bebB4 Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Apr 2016

@nachkari @LongShortTrader @nntaleb Noah is a partisan hack masking as an econ. He comes off as the archetypal econ that Nassim rails against Permalink 9:03 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Now a harder question, Mr Smith. Did you READ The Black Swan? Yes/No. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:39 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But you should certaily be fired by any decent outfit for misrepresenting my ideas in The Black Swan in an article. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If you say thay you are teaching at Stony Brook, there is no problem and I withdraw. Are you a professor there, Yes/No? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:25 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Back to the original question: why are you claiming to be at Stony Brook when you are not there? Why aren’t you answering? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It is only criminal to lie under oath or under some circumstances. Try to consult with legal before more bullshitting here. @Noahpinion Permalink 8:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb If I ceased to teach at NYU I would not find it ethical to claim that I am a professor at NYU, no matter the title. @DreadCrash @Noahpinion Permalink 8:11 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I did not use “criminal”: your actual activity does not match your claims. Why? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:07 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Stop putting words in my mouth. You claim to be assistant prof at Stony Brook. When was the last time you taught there? @Noahpinion Permalink 8:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb That’s what fraudsters and bullshitters say when they are caught.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721103376767852544   Permalink 7:48 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb But… I am living well. I am just allergic to fraud & fraudsters. @WLTSchirano @Noahpinion Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This is big: an implicit admission of involvement by Saudi Barbaria, or role of members of the royal family.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/721167105211564032   Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Scheduled for an interview w/Bloomberg TV. But from editors’ behavior @noahpinion I feel moral disgust. What to do? Permalink 7:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@TradeScylla Let’s show a little love for @nntaleb. A blogger lied and he didn’t let it go. If only #politics worked like this.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/721052151498338304   Permalink 6:36 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My theory was that someone like Noah Smith who writes BS will have many other instances of BS, hence …https://twitter.com/blightersort/status/721112619327819778   Permalink 4:13 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another liar: ceux qui se ressemblent s’assemblent. https://twitter.com/amonck/status/721102923879620608   Permalink 3:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You have ALL the attributes of an intellectual fraudster. @Noahpinion @arosaen Permalink 3:31 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2) And MISREPRESENTING is not an idea problem but a CHARACTER problem. Kapish? @Noahpinion Permalink 3:24 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 1) Point is not that Smith @noahpinion is wrong but that he actively MISREPRESENTS my work. & this is the 4th time. Msrprsntng is UNETHICAL Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I do not think that there is a single academic on the planet who does not notice his “citation” thing.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/721088725929762816   Permalink 3:19 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith @noahpinion:agrees w/passage(bt makes me say opposite) His editor @JamesGreiff”Smith sees things differently”pic.twitter.com/UEP4MRfSaj Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Liekwise when people are caught making a logical fallacy, they call it a “disagreement”.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/721086028564471813   Permalink 2:26 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith you willingly spread this mistake on citation count. Yours was 0, not 5,483. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/TQlD4c69tL Permalink 2:21 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Black Swan about “overestimation”.It’s in CHARACTER for Noah smith to MISREPRESENT. @davidjshipley @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/pIcSM8Xdqu Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because I’ve seen Mr Smith committing other misrepresentations. It is his CHARACTER. @davidjshipley @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:27 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Just ask the subject: Mr. Noah Smith have you been lying for 5 months about academic position? @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:14 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The dishonest part is MISREPRESENTING the idea. It is a matter of CHARACTER nothing to do with idea. @jon4fish @Noahpinion Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Call the University. I just verified with another member of the department, was told the same. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 1:01 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Smith SHOULD HAVE changed his CV Bloomberg bio. @foxyforecaster @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Was informed in December that Noah Smith was no longer at U since he wasn’t fit for research. @arosaen @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:55 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Further one does not have to write a rebuttal to Noah Smith when it was ALREADY in the book. Have some ethics. @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:44 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb We can confirm that Noah Smith has been LYING about his position at Stony Brook. Does Bloomberg condone such BS? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:42 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr Bloomberg, @MikeBloomberg, is it Bloomberg policy to allow journos writing about books they haven’t read? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:32 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr Smith have you read T Black Swan before commenting? Is it Bloomberg policy to have journos randomize comments? @davidjshipley @Noahpinion Permalink 12:29 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Since Mr Noah Smith I gather you haven’t been at Stony B. since at least Dec, why do you misrepresent position? @Noahpinion @davidjshipley Permalink 12:18 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Once again, Mr Smith, are you currently at Stony Brook Yes/No? @Noahpinion @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 Permalink 12:06 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb David Shipley @davidjshipley is the editor of Bloomberg View. Who was involved in editing/factchecking @noahpinion?https://twitter.com/LucasWilk/status/721050679729647616   Permalink 12:05 PM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Another point: Is Noah Smith hiding that he was thrown out of academia? It is compatible with his behavior @SpeakingBee @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:51 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Actually given that it was in The Black Swan Noah Smith violated journalistic ethics misrepresenting the idea &book. @mjd1735 @Noahpinion Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Bob Shiller is v. honest, just showing since paper is being used. As to Pinker, I tried & tried convincing him privately before going public Permalink 9:43 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mr @noahpinion,was told your academic career was cut short at Stony Brook. Why does you keep in bio? Am I wrong? @Kurtosis_ @InjuredThales Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb For those who ask: Bloomberg article abt Black Swans has same flaws as the Pinker article on war. Except worse.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720989442194960384   Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/324801689053962241   Bruno attributed this phrase to you Permalink 8:11 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Shiller paper is flawed. 1) wrong estimator 2) Bad tail prob https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/ppArXiv2.pdf   @InjuredThales @Noahpinionpic.twitter.com/QbwATMYrh3 Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Astrology does not influence policy makers, but BS psychology a la Sunstein does! https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/720951206860992513   Permalink 6:58 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb As the 5b fine shows, the main difference between Goldman Sachs & other criminal organizations is, simply, better & more connected lawyers. Permalink 6:28 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You look at astrologers as a field of BS,I look at psychology as same but w/arrogance @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman Permalink 5:25 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Psychology is so bullshit that it takes outsiders to debunk @Research_Tim @Firefly_fan @CoyneoftheRealm @ja_furman https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153769251858375   Permalink 5:14 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb This response illustrates the resistance against anything but a 7th C language –& of course 7th century thinking.https://twitter.com/Quran_Chart/status/720773858316267521   Permalink 5:10 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mistranslation: “Atabeg Zanki God has mercy upon him) shd be “the late Atabeg Zanki”, رحمه الله = ref to departed @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:36 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The Penguin translator is a BS operator: 60-70 in the original becomes 80. #bewarelazytranslators @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhan Permalink 4:31 AM – 15 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Minority rule: Yunan a Christian confronted 70 robbers; intimidated them t safe passage. @Hamadalna @GhassanDahhanpic.twitter.com/UlZTKBZIJh Permalink 4:29 AM – 15 Apr 2016