@nntaleb This friend of mine extends great thanks to @GrantSSC and other twitterlifters for helping with this. pic.twitter.com/1OUiy8l51aPermalink 6:53 AM – 21 Mar 2020
@TMFStoffel By the end of Mar, entire country will be on lockdown. Hope it doesn’t take that long If we had listened to @yaneerbaryam, @normonics, and @nntaleb when they issued their warning (Jan 26th, I believe), this wouldn’t be necessary. IF we have guts to do it, recovery starts May 1 pic.twitter.com/eMD0hjZX2LPermalink 7:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020
@yaneerbaryam Third conversation with @nntaleb about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is systemic risk / what not to do when a truck is headed your way https://youtu.be/FUgHKX0clhU Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020
@nntaleb typo: “instead of” contating you. Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Spyros is both an admirable man & a genuine scholar. — When you disagree with @spyrosmakrid, as a friend, you solve it w/Ouzo personally, never in public. Unlike Phil the rat @PTetlock who mocks you on the web before contacting you. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1241071337986277376 Permalink 11:42 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@spyrosmakrid Nobody can doubt that the world will now spend tens of trillions to fight the coronavirus while spending would have been minimal in Jan, not to mention all the lives that would have been saved and the trillions of stock market losses avoided. I must admit I was wrong. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1241020475930705920 Permalink 11:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@nntaleb This friend of mine in Atlanta is looking for a barbell to buy for immediate delivery. Permalink 10:36 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Central aspect of the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE at the systemic level: it applies to a very narrow set of conditions, centrally: FAT TAILS from multiplicative effects, w/o circuit breakers. The problem w dangerous BS vendors like @SaPinker/@PTetlock is their half training. 1 /n Permalink 10:28 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@nntaleb My paper on tail option pricing (revealing the equations at UNIVERSA) is under revision by a journal. What happened is not an “outlier” But anyone who after today still says “tail options are expensive” deserves to be put in a sanatorium. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1159545366330642434 Permalink 9:19 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@nntaleb The Ioannidis problem: these pseudoempirical idiots don’t get that INSURANCE is cheaper than catastrophe, which is why under convexity you act early, quickly, and … CHEAPLY. We now spent 2 Trillion when it could have been minimal on Jan 26. https://twitter.com/BenMcCrea24/status/1241018591060856834?s=20 Permalink 8:15 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@jeremias_bosch Right, now this is it. I hated you for so long and now I come back to you @nntaleb like a child that has filled all the oil lamps in the house with water and lived in darkness, out of his own stupidity. Keep on giving them what they deserve. Never stop, never! Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@nntaleb CONVEXITY OF ECONOMIC EFFECTS FROM PANDEMICS Why the economic costs from pandemics can still grow exponentially even when infection rates slow down. We live in an overoptimized world. pic.twitter.com/L7d8jTQRvOPermalink 6:21 AM – 20 Mar 2020
@jsferjou Bravo @philippejuvin Les médecins «officiels» qui ont décidé il y a qques semaines q les tests (54€ pièce) étaient inutiles ne veulent ni se déjuger ni «engraisser les labos» (témoignage recueilli sous couvert d’anonymat) Contrairement aux masques il n’y a pourtant pas pénurie https://twitter.com/jwaintraub/status/1240717907182616577 Permalink 3:18 PM – 19 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Fucking idiot my whole point is the asymmetry: how to behave with things we can’t predict. Permalink 12:11 PM – 19 Mar 2020
@nntaleb My own review is “Ioannidis mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence /recommends to buy insurance AFTER the harm when we now have evidence”. Risk requires asymmetric evidence. Harry Crane has a longer review https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-10 Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 Mar 2020
@JackDav88 I cannot speak for Taleb, but his basic point was the Ioannidis is treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. That’s enough to bring the entire argument down. If you are still arguing for only “data-driven” approaches under uncertainty there is nothing else I can say. Permalink 11:53 AM – 19 Mar 2020
@nntaleb 2/ Another friend lost his job in the service industry. He immediately found the substitute (what gains from quarantine) & is thriving. He asked to not release the exact industry (for now) so local people don’t take the biz away from him. Permalink 11:33 AM – 19 Mar 2020
@nntalebbot “It is a very recent disease to mistake the unobserved for the nonexistent; but some are plagued with the worse disease of mistaking the unobserved for the unobservable.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Mar 2020
@nntaleb MAKE LEMONADE OUT OF LEMONS! Yuuuge hero is @Jaffer22915438: given a shortage of hand sanitizers so he went looking for idle factories, found one, got the products & is now shipping 18,000 units/day. Think how instead of hunkering down you can get aggressive. #Antifragile 1/n https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1239643066333609984 Permalink 9:23 AM – 19 Mar 2020
@joe_shipman MATH PUZZLE FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT @nntaleb He is too busy saving countries from listening to credentialed morons. You cut a circular disk of paper radially to make wedges to be taped into conical paper cups. To maximize total volume you do 2 cups; what should the angles be? Permalink 7:51 AM – 17 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Same with insurance models. Loss from hurricanes aren’t what you think are losses from hurricanes, even if your estimate of the intensity is correct. Why? Because the costs of the material goes up nonlinearly owing to (conditional) excess demand. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Something UK modelers (idiots) did not get with hospitalization that we traders and modelers in nonlinearities have know since (1997): The market is a large movie theater with a small door. Same for hospital capacity. Gabish? Permalink 5:29 PM – 16 Mar 2020
@nntaleb UK Nerds: In 2008, The B of England was managing risk w the “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model” which assumed no banks, NO TAILS & no crises. They got insulted when I called it a fraud. Epidemiologists have similar flaws. No tails from model error. No perturbations. https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032 Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Mar 2020
@nntaleb So we spend >700bn on imaginary risks from listening to IYI geopoliticians & journos when in fact the true enemy is a virus you pick up doing high five with the bartender. Time to fire the Foreign Affairs/Think Tank establishment, close political “science”depts & reset. Reset. Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2020
@nntaleb I laughed so hard people I drank the wrong way & started coughing which scared everyone around me! The “BS Busting” operation seeking to eradicate statistical BS. pic.twitter.com/xnOUKZOdTkPermalink 10:09 AM – 16 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Just a reminder that “Risk Parity” is a scam. Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Mar 2020
@nntaleb The scoop: @realDonaldTrump’s staff relied on OUR memo from Jan 26 (@normonics & @yaneerbaryam), which gave solid grounds to ignore “academic” naive forecasting models estimating low impact from the China virus. #PrecautionaryPrinciple https://twitter.com/ProfMJCleveland/status/1239399258689806336 Permalink 9:14 AM – 16 Mar 2020
@nntaleb The place where: Ramses II, Nebuchadnezzar, Esarhaddon, Caracalla, Napoleon III, etc. left commemorative Stellae. Preserve Nahrl Kalb! Help protect the site from real-estate fraudsters. https://twitter.com/byzance11/status/1238864209636659202 Permalink 6:44 AM – 16 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Marks my words: 1) @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein will go down as open dangers to society, 2) Thaler’s models have already been debunked so if he is ever remembered, he will be remembered for his fake research. https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/1239284574909165568 Permalink 1:28 PM – 15 Mar 2020
@nntaleb So the methodology (with heuristics we can even teach at #RWRI) is figuring out potential model impact from simple nonlinearity. Alas, many epi models turn into pure hogwash. Nice representation, but unreliable for decision making. pic.twitter.com/hJlgAMqWVIPermalink 1:22 PM – 15 Mar 2020
@TalebWisdom “You are free in inverse proportion to the number of people to whom you can’t say “fuck you”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:06 PM – 15 Mar 2020
@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. A #RWRI Sunday strip with @nntaleb & @financequant & Raphael Douady. This strip is included in my newest mini-book Nr. 3 available here: https://gum.co/IJgDY Previous buyers will get a free update per e-mail ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1ZYkbSkHUf”> pic.twitter.com/1ZYkbSkHUf Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Mar 2020
@nntaleb *My profession=finding holes in models by IYIs I selected SIMPLEST SIR modelto check sensitivity to parametrization/convexity to error, common w/3 nonlinear ODEs. Every refinement to nonlinearM creates EXPLOSION of errors,curseofdimensionality (Yan & Chowellfor improvements) pic.twitter.com/NvDmy9Qy1kPermalink 8:18 AM – 15 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Here is my code, in case I made mistakes. It’s from the elementary SIR differential equations. pic.twitter.com/RUfrTNSSszPermalink 7:02 AM – 15 Mar 2020
@nntaleb UK Policy is a speculative lunacy. Playing with the toy standard epidemiological SIR model. We have no idea how model parameters cause a yuuuge variation in ourcomes. We don’t even know the central parameters/whether stochastic. Try to add perturbations for “herd immunity”. pic.twitter.com/fTJ7pWRlaTPermalink 5:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020
@wael_atallah Thank God there is still some sense in the world! Chocolate Hummus not selling despite the panic. pic.twitter.com/2vQzOJXTVuPermalink 1:07 PM – 14 Mar 2020
@nntaleb UK Herd Immunity & ANTIFRAGILITY What drove me bananas is some imbecile who said “it was an antifragile strategy”. NOTHING can be antifragile unless you remove the left tail. I go bananas when people cite me backwards. Permalink 10:42 AM – 14 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Joe Norman, @yaneerbaryam & I did not “react” on Jan 26 with out paper. We had been preparing for the statement since the poor understanding of Ebola’s tail risk. This is from Nov 2018. pic.twitter.com/YnG903XBTVPermalink 10:08 AM – 14 Mar 2020
@nntaleb I am a risk analyst & probability modeler. Not a virologist. I assumed reinfection possible because of lack of evidence. But if virologists (like this UK a @TheCrisk) state that reinfection is common for other Coronaviruses (this one has too short a life), then CASE CLOSED. pic.twitter.com/MW6kHPTc27Permalink 9:56 AM – 14 Mar 2020
@nntaleb UK’s “herd immunity” risk-blind strategy hinges on unempirical psycholophasters’ theory abt “crisis fatigue” & “nudging” BS. Assumes 1) no reinfection 2) hospitals will not be overwhelmed (w secondary deaths), 3) disease must return 4) no vaccine is coming Total IYI Lunacy. Permalink 9:33 AM – 14 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Apparently there is ستر in Arabic could be cover but so uncommon that I wonder where it is used. Permalink 2:24 PM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb (Proverbs 27.12) Note the Lebanese “setra” from נסתר (apparently not in Arabic); unless we find an Aramaic equivalen it would be Phoenician. Permalink 2:05 PM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb יב ערום ראה רעה נסתר פתאים עברו נענשו In Lebanese (literal): L 3aa2l lamma yshuf l khatar baddo l stra, L basit bkammel wbyékela In Lebanese (saying) Alf jabén w la alla yer7amo. #PrecautionaryPrinciple Permalink 1:53 PM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Only way to counter the fools at 10 Downing is for team w/@yaneerbaryam & @normonics : 1-Pressure US gov to block travel from UK 2-Issue guidelines for UK citizens to protect themselves from both corona & the gov of Boris-the-dupe @BorisJohnson 3- Show errors in epi studies Permalink 9:48 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb About everybody seems to be working under the hypothesis that those who recover from the virus are permanently in the SAME condition as those who never got it. Permalink 7:10 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb SKIN IN THE GAME All those in the UK who are in favor of the “herd immunity” BS should self-infect with the virus. Includes ALL decision-makers, science advisors and “Boris no Precaution”. Now. #SkinintheGame is about filtering those with systemic danger out of the system. Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@neilchriss Of course I prefer 90% doors locked to no doors locked. I also prefer Russian roulette with one bullet vs two. Justifying a bad alternative by presenting worse ones is precisely why most people suck at risk. Permalink 6:07 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb If you don’t like my style, go follow the Washington Post. Never lecture someone on her or his style! pic.twitter.com/C7od3zVZH3Permalink 5:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb 5) Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. Permalink 5:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238421868778004480 Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@Premysl_The_Man Over 1000 volunteers for http://endcoronavirus.org will fight this. Lower connectivity, now! @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb 4) On Jan 26 when ~1000 infected people we issued our warning on how to handle the pandemic: take no chances, stay ahead of it. Precautionary measures based on symmetry of errors. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208?s=20 Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb 3) You don’t board a plane w/safety w/p-value of .05 (likely to be miscomputed). If they used their “scientific” approach to risk management no pilot would be alive today. Risk require much more reliability than “evidence based” methods which are backward-looking & flawed. Permalink 4:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb UK NUDGE UNIT 1) Just as before the crisis of 2008-9 I was shouting that economic “experts” were no experts, we will sorely discover that behavioral “experts” are even more unreliable. 2) Even psychs admit behavioral papers replicate <½, that is the reliability of astrology. Permalink 4:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020
@nntaleb h/t @sothisispietro Permalink 6:49 PM – 12 Mar 2020
@okeyego The point of panic is to prevent the virus from spreading in the first place, imbecile, not to help those already infected with surviving. Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020
@normonics Dear @GovChrisSununu Please see my letter below as well the note we wrote in January that drove the travel restrictions that have bought us time. I submitted this letter on your website as well so you have my contact info there. Please don’t hesitate. Best, Joe pic.twitter.com/YQsEC83kXtPermalink 8:52 AM – 12 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Remember that the US is not a Republic but (still) a Federation. The president can control foreign access, but not what happens in the States/communes. Some States such as NY are ahead of the game; they even ordered their own testing kits. Others so so. #Localism Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020
@nntaleb 2) Psychologists themselves own that >55% of their results don’t replicate. I’ve shown that 100% of what they do in fat tailed domains is exactly backward. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Mar 2020
@nntaleb SOLUTION: market expects +/- 11.3% swing. This is a classic confusion because operators don’t understand what “volatility” means. Just as psychologists who deal with “correlation” and p-values don’t know what these metrics mean. pic.twitter.com/pLqoArwyh6Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020
@nntaleb OK, Trump woke up. He understood that the solution is acting NOW in reducing connectivity. 30 days travel ban from Europe is perfect. Let the states ban public transportation/close all gatherings for 30 days. Permalink 6:20 PM – 11 Mar 2020
@nntaleb What psychologists like this dangerous fellow @vaughanbell call “evidence” is something that fails 55-60% of the time, and has a p~ .05. With a p~.05 no pilot/flight attendant would be alive. Permalink 6:10 PM – 11 Mar 2020
@nntaleb CORONA TRICKS Friends pls add suggestions No fasting >20h No bread (can’t disinfect) unless you bake it yslf No sushi/raw meat No intense exercise. DL 80% max, at risk of detraining No public transp., no valet parking No Thaler/Nudge Unit No bars; if you must No nonalchlc bev Permalink 2:18 PM – 11 Mar 2020
@nntaleb ATTENTION Friends in the UK Beware the recommendations of the “Nudge Unit” and “evidence based” BS. They are more risk creators than mitigators. Learn from Korea, Singapore. In the US, Governor Cuomo is doing the right thing. This is the outline of my paper “nudge sinister”. pic.twitter.com/vtciWmMBaTPermalink 12:56 PM – 11 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Kluuuuuuelessly dangerous. The fellow @vaughanbell is a psychologist. Invokes “evidence based”: you need “evidence” of a crash before putting your seat belt on. The U.K. is doomed by government listening to “tenured” psychologists and nudge operators, like Thaler & other idiots. https://twitter.com/vaughanbell/status/1237743124107100163 Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Fucking IMBECILE, this was never presented as a “prediction” but as a warning about the fragility of SOME systems as they globalize. Permalink 1:22 PM – 10 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Lesson: Those who panicked early don’t have to panic today. Permalink 11:01 AM – 9 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Explaining “Black Swans” and their connection to Fat Tails in new technical book. pic.twitter.com/SuaW8JZjm7Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Mar 2020
@paulportesi You just haven’t seen the other side of the distribution. @nntaleb This quote has always stuck with me. Its elegance and power. I never forgot it. Well… We are seeing the other side of the distribution. Permalink 7:13 PM – 8 Mar 2020
@nntaleb The great Cato-the-wise, Cato Sapiens, Cato Censorius, or (in Staten Island, Cato-no-nonsense) would be turning in his grave & characteristically seething with anger at the misuse of his name by that imbecilic institute. PS-As we explained,deaths *lag* infections because…time https://twitter.com/CatoInstitute/status/1236720095205957634 Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Mar 2020
@nntaleb (No, nothing chemical. They are spraying Greek-Orthodox holy water.) Permalink 9:29 AM – 8 Mar 2020
@nntaleb The gym in Amioun (my ancestral village). Yet no virus in the area. Maybe the precautionary mindset in the genes (or, perhaps from the local olive oil). I guess I should go there. pic.twitter.com/R6m9ZuMEfaPermalink 9:20 AM – 8 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Solution. Joe Shipman tried (and failed) to ruin my weekend. (deleted previous owing to typos ) pic.twitter.com/Q3tFAeSjr5Permalink 8:06 AM – 8 Mar 2020
@nntaleb Beware Journalistic Fallacies Italy is NOT “risking” the economy to fight the virus. It is lowering the risk for the economy by fighting the virus. If the coronavirus proved something, it is that the half-learned (journalist, psychologist) is the greatest danger for mankind. pic.twitter.com/tIhXsIZRpbPermalink 7:15 AM – 8 Mar 2020
@Untiroalaire What pisses IYIs off is realizing how untaggable @nntaleb is, while their whole lives have revolved around labelling others. Aim for untaggability. Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2020
@koushikp Unfortunately despite all your efforts, many haven’t understood the concept of limiting factor. The capacity of the healthcare system isn’t unlimited. So the mortality rate isn’t a linear number as being spewed out across many IYIs across the internet. Permalink 6:41 PM – 7 Mar 2020
I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals.
Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev.
@TalebWisdom “Complaints don’t deliver complaints, they mostly reveal your weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:49 AM – 7 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Tonight’s Lecktshur at @LAUNYHQ, I present the problem of the Golden rule: intrusive, vs. Silver Rule. #Localism= Silver Rule, rejection of golden rule. #Lebanon Nobody should ever force you into something “because it is good for them”. pic.twitter.com/gkIpz0ivOkPermalink 4:17 AM – 7 Nov 2019
@Mangan150 Big Food – the largest global food corporations – and what they make. They turn cheap sugar, seed oils, and refined grains into profit. A big impetus behind the vegan push. pic.twitter.com/36OpQRzNFlPermalink 1:26 PM – 6 Nov 2019
@thegeforum Nassim Taleb says the hedge fund industry is the correct model for investment management… “dont tell me what you recommend… tell me what you own”. Hedge fund managers eat their own cooking! This from a man not accustomed to giving compliments! pic.twitter.com/0XWhr32TiZPermalink 10:18 AM – 6 Nov 2019
@nntaleb When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating *why* you had to say it. Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Nov 2019
@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/stalingrad_poor/status/1191740023265091584 Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019
@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Stalingrad_Poor/status/1191740023265091584 Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019
@novak_ma Few months ago I read Fooled by Randomness by @nntaleb and deleted my stock watch app from phone. I checked my stocks just once since then. Feels good. Permalink 9:20 AM – 5 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Just found a mistake in my paper concerning the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition (as I had the wrong description): the testing metric is always thin tailed EVEN if the underlying variable is fat tailed. pic.twitter.com/VOwRRgWDUZPermalink 6:40 AM – 5 Nov 2019
@nntaleb The incoherent fellow (an ethnic Druze chieftain claiming to be socialist) is a specimen of someone who lives in the wrong century & fails to understand #localism. Pple are more interested in electricity & public services than geopolitical incantations. https://twitter.com/walidjoumblatt/status/1191665339945361410 Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Nov 2019
@Decafquest On people who are afraid of cameras by @nntaleb: Relevant today more than ever. pic.twitter.com/647tMUjhmoPermalink 3:41 AM – 5 Nov 2019
@TalebWisdom “We learn the most from fools … yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:35 PM – 4 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Please indicate in this thread if you wish to come. Limited to people involved in the Lebanese situation. This is not about #Localism in general rather its application to Lebanon. (Swiss specialists welcome to join as CH is the model for multiethnic multireligious localism) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1191152050471677953 Permalink 7:02 AM – 4 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Friends, I will present #LOCALISM with respect to #Lebanon next Thursday at 5:30 in New York (before I leave NY for the Republic of Amioun). An application of PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica Venue to be confirmed #LebanonProtest Permalink 4:35 PM – 3 Nov 2019
@levelsio “For I have a single definition of success: you look in the mirror every evening, and wonder if you disappoint the person you were at 18, right before the age when people start getting corrupted by life. Let him or her be the only judge; not your reputation” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:57 AM – 3 Nov 2019
@nntaleb I can understand someone defending Iran against Salafis/Saudi Arabia. Never anyone -supporting Iran’s regime in the murders of Iraqi youths -supporting Iranian interference in the #Lebanonprotest, largely by youths FED UP w/their exploitation for geopolitics. #Localism Permalink 8:48 AM – 3 Nov 2019
@financequant To all at RWRI 12, travel safely. It was a pleasure to work with you. Permalink 6:19 PM – 2 Nov 2019
@trishankkarthik @nntaleb summarizing Wolfram’s Principle of Computational Equivalence at #RWRI Any two systems that display non-trivial behavior are just as sophisticated as each other in terms of range of computation (not speed or memory) Deep implications for IQ pic.twitter.com/hK9RZizT1DPermalink 2:15 PM – 1 Nov 2019
@nntaleb Skin in the Game @tarekmilleron American Airlines flight attendants stand up to Boeing CEO on 737 MAX https://reut.rs/2qcPPz6 Permalink 11:17 AM – 1 Nov 2019
@Heinonmatti Hey, @VergilDen is here! Banking system moves from right to left in the network fig –> vulnerability to targeted attacks. [Hope he talks about fighting later.] #RWRI pic.twitter.com/4Q1NvpvtLzPermalink 8:38 AM – 1 Nov 2019
@nntaleb LEBANON A bit of empiricism French and UK voters send their “heroes” Churchill and De Gaulle home after the war. Same with Bush the elder after the successful Persian Gulf war. War arguments & “resistance” do not register during periods of peace. #LebanonProtests #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Nov 2019
@Firsou “It’s unnatural to prepare” I agree 100%. Never prepared for a presentation while I was being told “you need to have notes”. If you need 10 pages of notes why should anyone listen to you? #RWRI Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Nov 2019
@nntaleb LEBANESE LIRA I hear that the Lira is trading at ~ 1675. No worries. A 10% deval. is nothing since the Lira commands much higher int rates than USD. [A holder of LIRA would still be profitable.] Even a 50% deval. would just cover the last few years of interest r differential. Permalink 5:46 AM – 1 Nov 2019
@arisroussinos Via Facebook, Oxi Day celebration by the Greek Orthodox community of Damascus, part of the Patriarchate of Antioch, among the last surviving Greeks of Syria pic.twitter.com/BpvGRoIG2VPermalink 2:52 AM – 1 Nov 2019
@birdxi1988 A great day at #RWRI @nntaleb mentioned the link between Kelly Criterion and entropy as well as why tail fitting is more an art than a science! pic.twitter.com/4S1CD5ptxIPermalink 3:57 PM – 31 Oct 2019
@Heinonmatti @nntaleb continues; you can rule out Gaussian distributions by observing one outlier, which would be ~impossible under the Gaussian, but much much more common under another distribution. Another way is to rule out based on physiological / biological bounds. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/UsZFsVHgQdPermalink 2:06 PM – 31 Oct 2019
@nntaleb #RWRI 12 An explanation for fat tails from feedback loops: “Abyssus abyssum invocat” תְּהוֹם-אֶל-תְּהוֹם קוֹרֵא Permalink 8:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019
@TalebWisdom “Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 4/n Problem of teleology: the French Gov. started explicitly an internet (Minital) and failed, what survived is the side effect of a military application. @MazzucatoM: Given the % of GDP by government, what % of innovation came from government? Didn’t gov displace private invt? Permalink 10:06 AM – 30 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 3/n @mazzucatoM claimed that by attending Princeton high school she attended a “state school”. Scale effect: it’s a school for the residents of the commune, equivalent in its functioning to a private school. Permalink 10:01 AM – 30 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 2/n Govt bureaucrats are not boring & lacking in innovative drive because they didn’t study strategy in business schools (i.e. because of their education) as claimed by @mazzucatoM, rather boring people tend to work for government. Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 1/n Just listened on way to #RWRI the @econtalker podcast with @mazzucatoM about the government role in innovation “investor of first resort”. Will comment further after I read the book, but found many flaws in reasoning by Mazzucato: Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Oct 2019
@TalebWisdom “Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:25 AM – 30 Oct 2019
@nntaleb #RWRI 12 : Robert Frey @financequant showing how the “blind watchmaker” (see book by BS vendor @richarddawkins) is improper characterization of evolution and complex systems: a watch half built is jot a watch. pic.twitter.com/iW8rn5XuImPermalink 6:22 AM – 30 Oct 2019
@TalebWisdom “The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity.” Permalink 5:12 PM – 29 Oct 2019
@DrCirillo At #RWRI, @nntaleb, @financequant and @normonics are fighting over the best definition of entropy… I don’t see why, given that the best definition is mine : a pseudo-metric of distortion, whose interpretation varies with its generator. Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Oct 2019
@nntaleb The way political parties and militias self destruct. They can use weapons against ISIS and Israel, never against their own constituents. They are done. #لبنان__ينتفض #LebanonProtests pic.twitter.com/hXWWArIwCQPermalink 5:23 AM – 29 Oct 2019
@aliciaparr Skin in the game also has an intrinsic moral appeal and aesthetic value: Real virtue isn’t cheap. And it turns out skin in one’s own game is a moral minimum; more admirable is skin in other people’s games—altruism, or what he calls “soul in the game” Permalink 5:16 AM – 29 Oct 2019
@aliciaparr For Taleb, skin in the game is an expression of intellectual virtue. One isn’t actually thinking well if one doesn’t have some sense of accountability for the outcomes of one’s judgments. Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Oct 2019
@NonMeek “Take all the risk you want but don’t f**k with the tail.” -@nntaleb That’s one central idea from yesterday’s #RWRI 12 starting session. BOOM Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Oct 2019
@StartSocieties Excited for @nntaleb’s next book. Politics framed as a complex adaptive system totally changes political priorities. Let’s focus less on top down solutions, and more on building political systems that enable antifragile problem solving. #localism https://buff.ly/2MQMr5w Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Oct 2019
@Jaffer22915438 To all #RWRI folks, wish I could be with you for my 6th visit…if nothing else to ask questions born from my confusion. Have fun! @nntaleb @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @VergilDen @Jed_Trott and the rest of the gang. Permalink 4:07 AM – 28 Oct 2019
@nntaleb A kind of network, but not desirable (one dimensional), but beats standard statist hierarchies. pic.twitter.com/XKhytgCC2iPermalink 9:23 AM – 27 Oct 2019
@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. It is just to clean up my feed for a dialogue with minimum sophistry. Permalink 6:21 AM – 27 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Trying to explain complexity and spontaneous order, with the “leaderless” Lebanese protests which baffles intellectuals, journos, Arabists, & other ignorant idiots looking for agency. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests https://twitter.com/Limportant_fr/status/1188364771504115712 Permalink 5:58 AM – 27 Oct 2019
@rationalwalk If UBI was referred to as a negative income tax, which it actually is, and if replaces rather than is additive to welfare, it would be a hugely popular idea across the political spectrum, except among the bureaucrats who’d be out of a job. So they’ll demagogue this to death. Permalink 11:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019
@nntaleb THREAD on STATISM My problem w/”socialists” is that they are statists & intrusive, not pro-welfare. I am for a negative tax (minimum income)= to $$ spent on welfare, saving spending on bureaucrats. But they refuse because they want to DIRECT how ppple spend $ & pay cronies. Permalink 11:03 AM – 26 Oct 2019
@nntaleb CEMENT IN LEBANON. As in elsewhere, construction is a mafia business. Cement Imports are banned to benefit factories in Lebanon (that employ Syrian workers). Lebanese citizens pay TWICE the price for concrete. The margins are shared by the Kleptocrats. #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 10:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019
@nntaleb We have so many capable people in the diaspora or ex-diaspora. Based on his track record, I propose @DrFadloKhuri as a member of the next cabinet. Or someone along such a profile. https://twitter.com/AUB_Lebanon/status/1187702093374803968 Permalink 7:32 AM – 26 Oct 2019
@nntaleb People who were previous ashamed of writing in Lebanese feel now empowered to do so! Even Nasrallah spoke in Lebanese. From chaos you get a new order. #ComplexSystems #Localism #BottomUp #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض https://twitter.com/Marcellenassif/status/1188053343253479425 Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Over time for the sake of efficiency & owing to, say, preferential attachment, networks are pulled into the center, from unifom to power laws or maybe lognormal. The one of the left collapses. Centralized systems end up collapsing after pseudostability Explained in #TheBlackSwan Permalink 7:37 PM – 25 Oct 2019
@Cernovich Who are the five wisest living people today, in any country in the world? Permalink 4:34 PM – 25 Oct 2019
@nntaleb The problem with historical reporting is overestimation of agency: narratives require leaders so people are fooled by journos etc. about the exact process. Same overestimation of agency as the one in #fooledbyrandomness #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 2:45 PM – 25 Oct 2019
@nntaleb To the left, how both Nasrallah, his enemies, & journalists think Lebanese Politics should work. To the right is how the protesters proved it works. Complex systems generatee spontaneous order. Progress lies in having NO leaders. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests pic.twitter.com/BBSy7tY91VPermalink 1:33 PM – 25 Oct 2019
@normonics @nntaleb look at the traction kanye talking about localism is getting. first, the self and mind, then the family, then the community, gardens, agriculture, etc. bottom up. local first. meme is sticking. Permalink 11:31 AM – 25 Oct 2019
@nntalebbot “What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have; it is what he or she is afraid of losing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 24 Oct 2019
@ronaldchagoury Sooooo well said – I’ve never been able to put my finger on it, and this is so spot on. The resentment class who rarely have skin in the game Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Nobody seems to be getting what I am saying: The assets of the ETFs should be dropping, no? Easy/tight money affects real estate, not just ETF. Permalink 9:28 AM – 24 Oct 2019
@mcclay_roman This page from you is framed and on the wall of my little container home. pic.twitter.com/nFCEujPQeoPermalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019
@nntaleb I do not wish to be considered for any official position in #Lebanon, so PLEASE remove my name. I prefer to help in other ways. This is the 3rd request. #LebanonProtests pic.twitter.com/xVMUqiB47sPermalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019
@nntaleb No, pple in Lebanon & elsewhere aren’t complaining abt “inequality”. The “inequality” is a claimm by the resentment class: journalists, academics (Pikety) & other losers. They want better conditions, governance, justice, accountability & skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 4:17 AM – 24 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Joe @normonics will lecktshur at #RWRI about complexity and multiscale properties of “tings”. He has 54 minutes plus 11 Q&A. Raphael, @financequant myself, & others will heckle him (we can stand heckling). https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1187068911986118661 Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019
@nntaleb (cont) With Modi also no tie (twice). Only exception: the US Senate. They refused to let me testify without a tie, so I borrowed one. pic.twitter.com/bycwHwwFsTPermalink 2:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019
@nntaleb I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals. Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev. pic.twitter.com/QV2R1BKDs9Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Oct 2019
@nntaleb These low-intellect Western Arabists trying to force their 1001 night identity on us don’t know that “merci” came to Lebanon via Turkish, Armenian, & Farsi. The Edward Said “collonial” is Total BS: the French spend 2 decades on a military mandate. pic.twitter.com/hT1JeZkR5nPermalink 1:36 PM – 23 Oct 2019
@nntaleb A heuristic to pick out a fraudster in #Lebanon, helpful for the selection of new ministers: 1) Wears a tie (hence empty suit), & 2) Speaks on TV in Classical Arabic (a dead Semitic language, similar to shouting in Medieval Latin in the UK Parliament). Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Oct 2019
@shreyansh_jain1 That’s a foolish statement. The fundamental problem of food supply is food wastage. So it’s a supply chain mgt problem. It’s the other way around here. Organic farming takes more space to patch the quantity of wasted food. You desperately need lessons from @nntaleb. Permalink 9:30 AM – 23 Oct 2019
@NYUFRE Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb, will present “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” as part of the NYU FRE Lecture Series this Thursday at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium. This event is open to the public. #NYUTandonMade Permalink 7:37 AM – 23 Oct 2019
@ShipSystem In Norway being a village local means so much for any job even over more qualified person from next village. Have u ever lived in Norway because ur tweet is 100% true. Maybe norwegians socialist on some aspects but super localist on most aspects. Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Oct 2019
@nntaleb BernieSanderistas are trying to promote a fake idea of “Nordic Socialism”. Nordics are 1)Yuugely localists (see #Antifragile on communes); they empowered local lang [Danish, Norwegian, Swedish] & don’t call them “dialects of Nordic”. 2) Are NOT socialists [Soc. failed in 70s] Permalink 5:47 AM – 23 Oct 2019
@nntaleb This is Arabic. Write to me in Lebanese. Permalink 5:06 AM – 23 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Bernie Sanders, stay out of this. You’re like a quack doctor who will kill the patient. The socialist (centralized statism) you are selling is what ruined Iraq, Syria, Egypt over the past 60 y. Lebn has little to do w/”Arab” Spring. Pple are fed up w/ kleptocracy/statism/Arabism https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1186762286507220994 Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Oct 2019
@ektrit For anybody with knowledge of actual history like Taleb, #LOCALISM is how the world functioned until mid 19th century, with the implementation of nation-states in Europe. As perspective, the current global setting is just 200 years young out of 6000 years of documented history. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1186634471887527937 Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb You have a moral duty to write in the language of the population. The French parliament does not use Latin. Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 7- SOLUTIONS It would be nice to but some kleptocrats in jail, particularly that funds are traceable. This will happen. But it is PATRONAGE that needs to go. Let me repeat, PATRONAGE! This can ONLY happen via decentralization as the larger the cental state, the more patronage. Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 6- People are angry because: a-they share the debt burden w/no benefits b-the Leb State messes up everything it touches, except security c-unlike Maluf, kleptocrats do not deliver The need for religious “harmony” allowed a multi-sect “elite” to milk the system to the bone. Permalink 6:18 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 5- (Cont some clarity about #Lebanon) Corruption doesn’t necessarily kill economic activity (Brazil’s Paulo Maluf “steals but delivers”). Except that the way the Petit Segneurons operate is to use their franchise by imposing yuuuge red tape: No electicity, no garbage collection! Permalink 6:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 4- The patronage system got out of control: government contracts grabbed by cronies, in a scheme orchestrated by people in/out of government, s.a. the Grand Segneura & many less visible Petit Segneurons populating ministries. Kleptocracy is traceable& illegal, not patronage! Permalink 6:02 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 3- Meanwhile the Gov is that of a federation, which is good (via healthy sectarianism) but government service is simply PATRONAGE, for each sect to get the max from the system. A healthier federation is to do it according to geography, via municipal power. Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 2- Luckily the Ponzi involves only 2 parties, Leb Gov (via Ramses XIII Salameh) & the banks. Hence easy non-inflationary cancellations w/clawbacks from those who made millions are possible. In the meanwhile Gov is taxing back the banks to cover secondary deficit, very smart move. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb #LEBANON, in Summary 1- Leb government got involved in a Ponzi (facilitated by Ramses XIII, Riad Salameh) that sucks up all funds from the system. People have no incentive to put $ (say inheritance from a childless maternal aunt) in a business; get >10% interest from the bank. Permalink 5:46 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Same with #Lebanon driving rules: except for speed, chaos is beneficial. Speed limits are necessary because of nonlinearity. From #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/mIp166DxZQPermalink 5:26 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Waiting in line is not always efficient as it can cause traffic jams. At RWRI we recommend that people overcome these arbitrarily & unempirically derived English manners & avoid waiting in line at the buffet lunch. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1186551994892206080 Permalink 4:44 AM – 22 Oct 2019
@ofer_rubin After they fail those imbeciles NEVER forget to say “this wasn’t real Socialist”, f**king utopia drug dealers. Permalink 4:14 AM – 21 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Riad Salamé, let me know when we can talk. We need to discuss the Ponzi you helped organize (and what the exact numbers are). There is no way citizens should inherit such a debt burden. Given that primary deficits are ~OK, you have some explanations to do. pic.twitter.com/Wr9NJhyAUjPermalink 9:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019
@nntaleb KLEPTOCRACY: It is important to note that corruption is NOT necessarily in the government (often composed of transient ministers) but deep in the opaque administrations. Which is why decentralization makes things salient. Permalink 8:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019
@Zzeghedrane Diaspora, this is our contribution to the uprising! Fund the people to keep going! Water, food, snacks, masks, whatever they need. $20 can give water to 60 protesters! Please share!! #LebDiasporaProtests #LebDiasporaFunds #لبنان__ينتفض https://www.gofundme.com/f/1sdqrcksqo?utm_medium=social Permalink 6:20 AM – 20 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Question is whether “Baabda vaut bien une messe”. (Henry IV converted to Catholicism to become King of France. He didn’t have a Greek Orthodox mother.) Beyond the joke, under the LOCALISM program, the president is a mere clerc, as in Switz. Lower rank than mayor of Amioun. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1185492162470916097 Permalink 4:56 AM – 20 Oct 2019
@AdibChristian Lebanese in Boston, Tomorrow, Sunday the 20th, starting at 4 PM in front of the Boston Public Library – Copley Square Protest with us! Bring your flags and signs! Spread the word to your Lebanese in Boston metro! #LebDiasporaProtests #لبنان_يثور #لبنان_ينتفض #يا_ثوار_الارض pic.twitter.com/QM9HoudTGxPermalink 6:18 PM – 19 Oct 2019
@HachemYassin Admittedly this needs a lot of work on the ground. M people became accustomed to think they are entitled to things from the state, with the famous “wayniyye l dawle” cliche. dawle is there, but it is the problem,not the solution.sadly, protestors think the state shld provide jobs Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 2) The current villains (Siniora, Berri, Basil) will, over time, look much more like villains, whether justified or not. Salamé will, of course, be dragged through the mud. #Lebanon PS- I spend a week per month there but missed events because of #RWRI 12 Permalink 4:02 PM – 19 Oct 2019
@nntaleb RIOTING LESSON 101; When rioters win concessions from the governement, they ask for more. #Lebanon 1/n Permalink 12:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019
@dzviovich Concentration of wealth is an emergent property of a complex system such as the economy. https://bit.ly/2oVYyFs . It is also a property of rent seeking societies. The other emergent property, social mobility, will not show up. Picketty and friends seem to ignore this… Permalink 5:41 AM – 19 Oct 2019
@jadabdala a phoenician mediterranean saturday – Lebanon – le phénix renait de ses cendres pic.twitter.com/5zQ6yCQVMHPermalink 4:34 AM – 19 Oct 2019
@TulsiGabbard Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a … Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Oct 2019
@nntaleb For those not used to Twitter language (or aphorisms), “it’s not” should be translated into academic discourse unburdened with space constraints as “not necessarily so”. Permalink 9:05 AM – 17 Oct 2019
@nntaleb One hitch: Donaldo’s letter is closer to that of the Sultan than to the response by the Cossacks. Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Donaldo’s letter to Erdogan will be remembered in international affairs as the 2019 version of the Cossaks letter to the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed IV. pic.twitter.com/qzA4jLZgP5Permalink 6:22 AM – 17 Oct 2019
@nntaleb In 2008 I held that something as absurd as the pseudo-Nobel in economics would end self-destructing. No point fighting it: it would collapse under the weight & monstrosity of the fraud. You can’t fool people forever. 2019 did the job. Permalink 6:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Sanctions work with countries like Turkey & China that depend on the West, not with Iran/Syria after 40 years of autarchy. The mere threat made the currency collapse. Permalink 5:31 PM – 16 Oct 2019
@nntaleb The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fasted way to become poor is to socialize with the rich. Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2019
@yaneerbaryam Antidepressants and other psych meds are personality change operations. Medicine/psychiatry/psychology are in a primitive state and do not understand context-individual complexity. Meds should be used only as a last resort. @MichaelSagnerMD @nntaleb See https://amazon.com/Psychologys-Ghosts-Crisis-Profession-Back/dp/0300178689 Permalink 5:16 AM – 16 Oct 2019
@Prof_BearB Nice piece. Brings to mind a point that I didn’t make in my book: if I (and @aaronclauset and @nntaleb + @DrCirillo) are right about the absence of decline and @tanishafazal is right about battle deaths, we’re actually *trying* to kill a lot *more* people today than we used to. https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1184116033872891904 Permalink 8:03 AM – 15 Oct 2019
@nntaleb M7n vs Manyaké as described by @Confusezeus You call a number, ask for Joseph: – “Jozef Khouré hon?” – Wrong number. Call again, same thing. That’s “m7n”. Call 3rd time: Hi, I am Jozef Kouré. Did anyone call for me? That’s manyaké. Permalink 6:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019
@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The most untranslatable word I know: “M7n” in Lebanese. Unlike other untranslatable expressions, you cannot even easily describe what it is. Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Oct 2019
@sahouraxo A short little history of war propaganda: Vietnam 1964 – Gulf of Tonkin incident Gulf War 1990 – Incubator Babies Iraq War 2003 – Imaginary WMDs Libya 2011 – Nonexistent massacres in Benghazi #Syria 2019: Video from a Kentucky military show passed off as Syrian war footage https://twitter.com/gizmodo/status/1183773245163687936 Permalink 5:43 PM – 14 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists (unless they have mental issues, in which case they become psychologists). And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:31 AM – 14 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists. And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:27 AM – 14 Oct 2019
@nntaleb THREAD on How the Nazis (& predecessors) created a link with (some of) the Mediterranean populations, to manufacture a common “race” with former Barbarians and a continuum of civilization. Chapoutot, thanks to recommendation by @holland_tom pic.twitter.com/KEdcKrbFHbPermalink 9:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019
@newtgingrich Why is the left so afraid of Tulsi Gabbard? I don’t understand the viciousness of the atatacks on her by the NY Times and others. Permalink 2:25 AM – 14 Oct 2019
@jun78th Scale transformation is so important a concept – so much mismatch in scale between problem and solution often. When mismatch is minimal, life flows richly. I do hope you are able to (successfully) educate a new generation on scale transformation Permalink 7:11 AM – 13 Oct 2019
@nntaleb In the PRINCIPIA I explain that people used to welcome individuals but reject groups qua groups (cf hospitality of Arab tribes for n<5 pple, hostility otherwise). They still do but are confused about it. “Racism” is not scale-free. https://twitter.com/teddyjwhitman/status/1183362653022048256 Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Oct 2019
@nntaleb When you ask people what restaurant they *would* like, they answer: comfortable, not too noisy, with room & no wait. Yet they wait in line to pak in tiny rooms with yuuge noise levels & the mobility of the Tokyo subway car. Same for books. Make them dense. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1183336137391108096?s=20 Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Incidentally the “Tufte style” is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile Permalink 3:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019
@TalebWisdom “In any type of activity or business divorced from the direct filter of skin in the game, the great majority of people know the jargon, play the part, and are intimate with the cosmetic details, but are clueless about the subject.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:17 PM – 10 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Food can only be Lindy. And technology (Amazon) can reduce the distance between supplier and consumer. pic.twitter.com/X1WO7RU4D0Permalink 8:05 AM – 10 Oct 2019
@FedericoPistono It is a special kind of satisfaction to receive the Incerto pentalogy by @nntaleb, in glorious deluxe hardcover, bought with fuck-you-money I made starting my own businesses from scratch, taking risks. pic.twitter.com/RkHIOVmSTuPermalink 4:52 AM – 10 Oct 2019
@Mehdi_IR_DC My own reason for not liking psychology is that its point of departure is human arrogance. To understand human mind and to fix it! Religion on the other hand starts from the point of human humility, it has via negativa. Permalink 3:50 PM – 9 Oct 2019
@Arch_Revival_ Before & After Hungarians replace ugly modernist building with a new build in the Classical tradition. A beautiful city is a better city. Budapest pic.twitter.com/TPiRSli9o6Permalink 3:39 PM – 9 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Debating… Molyneux? If someone offered you to debate an animal in the zoo, you will be equally offended. Permalink 8:39 AM – 9 Oct 2019
@satyakatla Have chanced upon a #DataScientist lecturing, who has no idea about probability and stating that distribution is drifting from the assumption, hence wrong prediction. What he doesn’t get is it is wrong distribution to start with. @nntaleb succinctly mentioned this here: pic.twitter.com/aSVtmEAFmvPermalink 7:46 AM – 9 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Finaly for the identity Gov. Debt = Asset you need the asset to have the same value as if determined by the real market under selection pressures. Permalink 4:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019
@walid970721 I just found this tweet by Ken Roth from 2018 that shows what a moron he is. Of course the majority of the refugees are going to be Sunni when they form the majority of the population. Claiming that it’s proof of ethnic cleansing is idiotic. #Syria https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/1013454626694234112 Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Oct 2019
@briteless You will never get the f*** you money* by winning arguments. (Advice to a young adult who wants to become personally free, financially independent, and freely pursue his interests). – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/AfrikaKesho/status/1181267585511370753 Permalink 12:31 AM – 9 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Incidentally there is something of interest here: group IQ != average member IQ. Complex systems are about interactions. Failure of mean field. Permalink 4:25 PM – 8 Oct 2019
@nntaleb NEVER read anything written by journalists, just look at prices! Correct: “Stocks dropped less than a Mean Deviation because of very slight order imbalances caused by a tiny minority; a small number of unidentified motivated investors adjusting their holdings.” #MinorityRule pic.twitter.com/Xz3TOQtlY8Permalink 10:27 AM – 8 Oct 2019
@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Shawarma is not from Turkish but (Eastern) Aramaic, as the Turkish itself (çevirme) originates from the Eastern Syriac Sha-warma, where there is a shift “b” to “w”. “Barma” means to rotate, just as in “gyro” and “rotisserie”. @turlevnon Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Oct 2019
@nntaleb THIRD VERSION Large Kafkaian centralization units such as Whitehall, Brussels, etc. “Elite” undergraduate education pic.twitter.com/jmakcYOcRgPermalink 4:11 AM – 8 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Tis is probabilistic, so the idea is that 3-7 out of 10 items will be gone. Permalink 3:43 AM – 8 Oct 2019
@financequant The trend to relentless centralization will collapse (after much suffering). This has happened in the small with many ex-socialist countries. Consider Sweden which restored a market economy and decentralized its social programs; e.g., school vouchers. http://bit.ly/2ARDBhq Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Oct 2019
@nntaleb FOR COMMENTS Friends, was asked to “predict” what would happen by the end of the decade. Used Lindy. pic.twitter.com/xCqtBIPZ2TPermalink 1:01 PM – 7 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Convexity is often missed in: + finance (gamma, model error) + evolutionary biology (mean-field) cc:@yaneerbaryam (Even those who support group selection s.a. Wilson accept the non-convexity math). + forecasting (verbalistic Tetlockism) + behavioral econ (failure of mean-field) https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1080800546813034499 Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 Oct 2019
@TalebWisdom “The market is like a large movie theater with a small door. And the best way to detect a sucker is to see if his focus is on the size of the theater rather than that of the door.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019
@ektrit There is study of Theology/Church History by studying the Church Fathers and There is study of Theology/Church History by understanding that Church Fathers were in the 0.1% of Educated Elite. So, all theological conflict was among the top 0.1%. Night and Day approach. Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Oct 2019
@DellAnnaLuca THE DYNAMICS OF THE ANTIFRAGILE (thread) Where does the ability of the antifragile to benefit from volatility come from? Can this ability be increased? What policies increase it, and which decrease it? 1/N Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Further, the identity in Debt = Money an entity called “we” owes to an entity called “ourselves” fails ergocity. #ergodicityeconomics @ole_b_peters Permalink 6:23 AM – 6 Oct 2019
@nntaleb Yes! Doing something that is boring, unnatural, and devoid of organic stimulus is not (necessarily) virtue. It is meant to train people to become good bureaucrats and other slaves. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1179505096335474691 Permalink 2:52 AM – 3 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 3/ +Need for *adult supervision* (international) of Salameh & others, no need to replace right away. Permalink 9:21 AM – 2 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 2/ + Government cannot control the corruption, located is in the “deep” ministries. Changing minister is of no help. +Nonpolitical decentralization only solution. +Central state great at managing sectarian tensions …but incapable of dealing with economic life; it’s a burden Permalink 9:20 AM – 2 Oct 2019
@nntaleb LEBANESE FINANCIAL SITUATION, INTERVIEW Recorded for LBCI (Thu 9:30 PM). + There ~no primary deficit, so no risk of big collapse. Debt is circular Bank-State. + People are so scared that ANY reduction of uncertainty (via moratorium) would be yuugely beneficial Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Oct 2019
@nntaleb 4 hours dinner conversation with @rorysutherland and Rohan @Silva in a Pakistani restaurant in London (2 bottles of wine, but no Negroni). You must buy two copies of Rory’s book, in case one is stolen, lost, damaged (by the rain), or self-destructs. pic.twitter.com/Xa5WFOGCNtPermalink 3:03 AM – 2 Oct 2019
@nntaleb So conforming to his status of fake scholar, @charlesmurray promotes a thread by *Claire-the-hysterical basketcase* without any of them knowing what I actually said. Note: Anyone who ever cites Charles Murray on anything becomes a fake scholar. https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/1178784796891238400?s=21 Permalink 9:28 AM – 1 Oct 2019
@STrosterud Yes. Nothing like Taleb accusing the Swedes directly for their Nobel shenanigans Makes both my Norwegian, and Finnish side smile pic.twitter.com/P1ybneyIgFPermalink 11:42 AM – 30 Sep 2019
@AntonioBlaGra While Taleb’s Real World Risk Institute #RWRI was not one of the organizations I reseached, I realize now that it certainly presents the three characteristics of the Internet Culture: open knowledge, decentralization, and reputation based in what you do. https://realworldrisk.com/ Permalink 3:10 AM – 30 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Except that the Nobel Prize of Literature has the remarkable ability to pick non #Lindy authors too embedded in their time: For France, Sully Prudhomme, Fréderic Mistral,Roger Martin du Gard,Romain Rolland, Anatole France,… https://twitter.com/thomasjbevan1/status/1178602114290982912 Permalink 2:34 AM – 30 Sep 2019
@nntaleb And desertions, and typhus, and the mud. And he kept losing horses throughout. Permalink 1:32 AM – 30 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Napoleon is a prime example of *winning almost all battles but losing the war*. Permalink 1:15 AM – 30 Sep 2019
@nntaleb The single biggest hit was the Pyrrhic victory of Borodino (if we can call it a “victory”). Permalink 1:01 AM – 30 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Napoleon was also the grandmaster of fake news, doctoring up his “bulletins”, misreporting his casualties and those of the enemies, even when he was the winner. Permalink 11:55 PM – 29 Sep 2019
@nntaleb He simply lost 2/3 of his troops to the Russians and the Cossacks. Permalink 11:51 PM – 29 Sep 2019
@nntaleb MYTH DU JOUR Napoleon was not that great invincible general who was defeated by the Russian winter, nonmilitary circumstances. His Grande Armée had lost 2/3 of its soldiers before the first frost. Also remember that he (twice) deserted his own army. Permalink 11:46 PM – 29 Sep 2019
@bkzafar Since no one would believe me otherwise. Got seated next to one of my favourite authors on the train from Stockholm. Welcome to Gothenburg @nntaleb :) pic.twitter.com/NipSN268MrPermalink 6:44 AM – 28 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Explanations: 1- Lebanese banks are NOT lending to businesses, but to the government to service the debt… to the same banks. That’s what I called “circularity”. 2- Merchants now realize that an IOU from another merchant is safer than $ in the “bank”. Salameh needs to go. Permalink 2:05 AM – 28 Sep 2019
@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 3 + Traditional Lebanese politics along ethnoreligious lines are put on hold (now, money talks). Parties are deemed equally incompetent. Old system of *state employement as political patronage* goes out via attrition. + Real decentralization. Permalink 1:50 AM – 28 Sep 2019
@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 2 The system fixes itself + People realize that banks returns are not risk-free; Any income generating project than lend to the “circularity”. + Increase in governance from sudden transparent + Noninvestors take a haircut from past gains. Permalink 1:34 AM – 28 Sep 2019
@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION + The primary budget is about balanced; pressure is from debt servicing. + Higher rates drain the economy as real investment returns pale compared to bank deposits *in US $*, leading to a circularity Gov-Banks-Depositors. Let the system fix itself! Permalink 1:25 AM – 28 Sep 2019
@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 16 That rationality is about ideas, & beliefs (or religion) can be “irrational”. No. Rationality is about action. There is no axiomatic framework for rationality that includes beliefs. It is what you do. #SkinintheGame https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a Permalink 12:41 AM – 28 Sep 2019
@NupurJoshii I love how Nassim Taleb writes his books! There’s a summary to each section and each chapter.. There’s chapter notes . There’s a guide to the book. There’s hilarity and brilliance all at the same time. I mean. It’s wonderful ! Permalink 11:53 PM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Now first statement by Quilletebecile Young @toadmeisster: “IQ is a better predictor of socioeconomic status than parental socioeconomic status” is plain BS. IQ does not predict income/wealth (close to R^2=0, with cheating they get <.04). Permalink 10:42 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb And By the way, Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister, we now have the same raw longitudinal data as the ones used by these studies. Permalink 10:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister you can now go find ALLLLLL the “studies” you want, the effective R^2 IQ tests to economic condition is ~0. Keep trying you and your Neo-Eugenist friends. Permalink 10:21 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb As an Orthodox, today was the second most important day for me (after my baptism). The highest ranking person in Orthodoxy, His Holiness Bartholomeos 1 Patriarch of Constantinople, gave me his blessing & a small gift. It was on a plane out of Constantinopolis. pic.twitter.com/qVAeY9jl5fPermalink 10:05 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Mr Young’s own data shows an R^2 of .04 for IQ-Income. He is talking abt socioeconomic condition. Where is the 80% heritability? Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@spyrosmakrid The “State of the art in SS Fcing” is a review paper for lay readers clarifying what we know, what we are not sure and what we don’t know about the field plus what has been achieved lately The paper is part of the M4 Special Issue of the I. J. of Forecasting @robjhyndman @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/4XjFL2LF6tPermalink 4:59 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Plomin estimates IQ *testing* is 50% heritable, itself weakly correlated to performance. Plus testing is also 80% correlated to other tests. I estimated R^2 of 0% for socio-economic performance. @toadmeister is a quack reciting some Quillette invented mantra. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb The Lebanese (not Lebanese Armenian) manti (shish barak) is cooked in goat milk yoghurt with Med herbs (laban immo) and left to marinate for a bit. Permalink 4:08 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb + sur les bords + pauvre con (h/t @firsou), very different from petit con + fofolle + bancal + bon chic bon genre + pour ta gouverne + foiré Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Noticed that in Tatarstan & Kazakhstan they stuff their manti with horse meat, and, mostly, horse fat; the yoghurt is made from mare’s milk. Permalink 3:27 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Which confirms my theory that Quillette is managed by a collection of low-intellect, low-skilled BS vendors, using poorly warmed up pseudoscience to promote a eugenics agenda and, of course, incapable of hiding it. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177351195503026176 Permalink 2:58 AM – 27 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Democrats: If you are using information from the whistleblower, you MUST ask for Assange’s exoneration. #Coherence Permalink 11:19 PM – 26 Sep 2019
@TMFStoffel “Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling” *THIS* more than anything else, is the thing that — once you see it — you can’t un-see. It’s not just Rand. It seems like scale is something that we *ALL* struggle with. But once we see it, it changes everything. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1177267073409605634 Permalink 8:01 PM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Ofer just answered the central point: we are not really talking about selfishness, but symmetry. So long as do you not transfer risks to others, you are honorable. You are even more honorable when you take the risks of others. https://twitter.com/ofer_rubin/status/1177294276302127105?s=20 5/n Permalink 11:55 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb (cont) + plouc + de souche + marche a coté de ses pompes + petit con (the “petit” is central) Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb This said there are a lot of words in French I know that have no (potent) equivalent in English which come to me in Fr: + vivotter + glander + minable + tête à baffe Permalink 10:41 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb This does’nt make “selfishness” honorable. Nature has no junk: it recycles & makes fertilizers out of animal & human waste. Likewise society recycles somewhat selfish pursuits as fertilizer. So we should not be glorify selfishness, no more than we do w/excreta. 4/n Permalink 10:08 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb And Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling. In that sense I prefer people to focus Mandeville who inspired Adam Smith’s “it’s not the benevolence of the butcher…” A good society is one that via scale transformation makes a virtuous collective out of somewhat selfish individuals. 3/n Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb a hero who serves the collective (expected return is negative as 999/1000 will fail) and there is no such thing as a “failed” entrepreneur; I subscribe to virtue ethics and Christian morality which makes some of her stances repugnant to me both as a Christian & a Classic-ist. 2/n Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb I do share a lot of readers with Ayn Rand and there are some commonalities: 1) To do good, focus on your own business, 2) Bureaucrats are evil, etc. But there are yuuuge differences. I do not believe that individuals should be “selfish”, I do believe that the entrepreneur is 1/n Permalink 9:56 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb The point is not about Trump but the system. I can easily understand why someone can hate Trump. But changing the rules under asymmetries effectively destroys the system. Permalink 5:49 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb My take: Collusion between two parties needs to emanate from an explicit transaction or a well defined offer, not something vague in a conversation. It should be subjected to the same standards as contractual obligations. Otherwise everything can be interpreted as collusion. Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Sep 2019
@nntaleb Blunder duJour: Was telling someone on the phone in French “you gave me invaluable advice” (abt food, of course), came out as literal translation “un avis sans valeur” which means “an opinion of no value” & realized after hanging up. Wonder if I will ever get more food tips. Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 Sep 2019
