Tag Archives: UBI

#Moralhazard, @SamHarrisOrg, @PTetlock, Ioannidis, India, UBI, @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein, LUNACY IN THE UK,

Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens–Coronavirus: A Note (pdf)
T H E  T E C H N I C A L  I N C E R T O  C O L L E C T I O N (460 pg pdf)
Ethics of Precaution: Individual and Systemic Risk (Sign up to download pdf)
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…”(Sign up to download pdf)

@nntaleb We need a hall of shame in this thread. These people got us here owing to the lack of preparation. Murderous idiots! https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1241355290852786181   Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine extends great thanks to ⁦@GrantSSC⁩ and other twitterlifters for helping with this. pic.twitter.com/1OUiy8l51a Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Jaffer of course. Make lemons https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1240735924029403136   Permalink 9:01 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@HarryDCrane Cost how many lives? https://twitter.com/subhash_kak/status/1241199430151389184   Permalink 8:17 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel By the end of Mar, entire country will be on lockdown. Hope it doesn’t take that long If we had listened to @yaneerbaryam, @normonics, and @nntaleb when they issued their warning (Jan 26th, I believe), this wouldn’t be necessary. IF we have guts to do it, recovery starts May 1 pic.twitter.com/eMD0hjZX2L Permalink 7:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There is a suspicion that STAT NEWS which published the Ioannidis article is an Industry shill. It published Henry I. Miller AFTER he was caught working for Monsanto for which he was fired from Stanford and his columns were removed from Forbes. https://usrtk.org/our-investigations/open-letter-to-stat-its-time-for-strong-clear-coi-disclosure-policies/   Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Some days I have hordes after me. Some large event happens, and I can do no wrong. Then a quiet period… https://twitter.com/YourCareerflex/status/1241157783954829315   Permalink 5:29 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Third conversation with @nntaleb about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is systemic risk / what not to do when a truck is headed your way https://youtu.be/FUgHKX0clhU   Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb typo: “instead of” contating you. Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Spyros is both an admirable man & a genuine scholar. — When you disagree with @spyrosmakrid, as a friend, you solve it w/Ouzo personally, never in public. Unlike Phil the rat @PTetlock who mocks you on the web before contacting you. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1241071337986277376   Permalink 11:42 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@spyrosmakrid Nobody can doubt that the world will now spend tens of trillions to fight the coronavirus while spending would have been minimal in Jan, not to mention all the lives that would have been saved and the trillions of stock market losses avoided. I must admit I was wrong. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1241020475930705920   Permalink 11:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine in Atlanta is looking for a barbell to buy for immediate delivery. Permalink 10:36 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Central aspect of the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE at the systemic level: it applies to a very narrow set of conditions, centrally: FAT TAILS from multiplicative effects, w/o circuit breakers. The problem w dangerous BS vendors like @SaPinker/@PTetlock is their half training. 1 /n Permalink 10:28 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My paper on tail option pricing (revealing the equations at UNIVERSA) is under revision by a journal. What happened is not an “outlier” But anyone who after today still says “tail options are expensive” deserves to be put in a sanatorium. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1159545366330642434   Permalink 9:19 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Ioannidis problem: these pseudoempirical idiots don’t get that INSURANCE is cheaper than catastrophe, which is why under convexity you act early, quickly, and … CHEAPLY. We now spent 2 Trillion when it could have been minimal on Jan 26. https://twitter.com/BenMcCrea24/status/1241018591060856834?s=20   Permalink 8:15 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jeremias_bosch Right, now this is it. I hated you for so long and now I come back to you @nntaleb like a child that has filled all the oil lamps in the house with water and lived in darkness, out of his own stupidity. Keep on giving them what they deserve. Never stop, never! Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why my forthcoming textbook has a defect in reasoning named after him: the “Pinker problem”, or pseudo-empiricism with systemic variables or fat-tailed domains. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1241003952935768064   Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CONVEXITY OF ECONOMIC EFFECTS FROM PANDEMICS Why the economic costs from pandemics can still grow exponentially even when infection rates slow down. We live in an overoptimized world. pic.twitter.com/L7d8jTQRvO Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK government is borderline psychopathic. Or maybe not borderline. (If true.) https://twitter.com/DRileyamusing/status/1240923403919515648   Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jsferjou Bravo @philippejuvin Les médecins «officiels» qui ont décidé il y a qques semaines q les tests (54€ pièce) étaient inutiles ne veulent ni se déjuger ni «engraisser les labos» (témoignage recueilli sous couvert d’anonymat) Contrairement aux masques il n’y a pourtant pas pénurie https://twitter.com/jwaintraub/status/1240717907182616577   Permalink 3:18 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The intuition of what @wtgowers likes about Yaneer’s article is that you’d rather see islands of concentrated infections (pink) & safer areas than evenly distributed. Simply islands have lower concentration than continents/circuit breakers. @dzviovich can you show the automata? https://twitter.com/wtgowers/status/1240688178454867968   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/k8XnrfZc7b”>  pic.twitter.com/k8XnrfZc7b Permalink 1:07 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking idiot my whole point is the asymmetry: how to behave with things we can’t predict. Permalink 12:11 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My own review is “Ioannidis mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence /recommends to buy insurance AFTER the harm when we now have evidence”. Risk requires asymmetric evidence. Harry Crane has a longer review https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-10   Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@JackDav88 I cannot speak for Taleb, but his basic point was the Ioannidis is treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. That’s enough to bring the entire argument down. If you are still arguing for only “data-driven” approaches under uncertainty there is nothing else I can say. Permalink 11:53 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The problem with the Ioannidis article is that it is retweeted by every imbecile in sight as it gives cover to their beliefs. https://twitter.com/Thomas1774Paine/status/1240646790279499778   Permalink 11:51 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Another friend lost his job in the service industry. He immediately found the substitute (what gains from quarantine) & is thriving. He asked to not release the exact industry (for now) so local people don’t take the biz away from him. Permalink 11:33 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntalebbot “It is a very recent disease to mistake the unobserved for the nonexistent; but some are plagued with the worse disease of mistaking the unobserved for the unobservable.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@Firefly_fan @nntaleb commenting John “clueless” Ioannidis: https://twitter.com/OddLittleOrange/status/1239971216468762629   NAILS IT. Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The paper is here. It blew up on Academia https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-03-13   Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb MAKE LEMONADE OUT OF LEMONS! Yuuuge hero is @Jaffer22915438: given a shortage of hand sanitizers so he went looking for idle factories, found one, got the products & is now shipping 18,000 units/day. Think how instead of hunkering down you can get aggressive. #Antifragile 1/n https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1239643066333609984   Permalink 9:23 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam .@nntaleb and I discuss superspreaders, lockdowns and how to stop the outbreak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LX_bqMQfWlw&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 7:10 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ioannidis got the reasoning completely BACKWARD. I mean reallllllly backward. In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method. That’s the message of the INCERTO. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jO6uQWRJ7e”>  pic.twitter.com/jO6uQWRJ7e Permalink 10:29 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Irresponsible claim. Possible but v. v. highly uncertain. One needs to be blind to make such a strong claim while posting this graph. Just look at the points. https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1239646311328120833   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb A review of Ferguson et al., paper using the U.K. standard model for virus risks, w/@yaneerbaryam Paper underestimates the benefits of a LOCKDOWN. As we saw, SIR-type models fail to capture granularity and difference between individuals and AGGREGATES. https://www.academia.edu/42242357/Review_of_Ferguson_et_al_Impact_of_non-pharmaceutical_interventions…_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y0KglubInQ”>  pic.twitter.com/y0KglubInQ Permalink 8:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@joe_shipman MATH PUZZLE FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT @nntaleb He is too busy saving countries from listening to credentialed morons. You cut a circular disk of paper radially to make wedges to be taped into conical paper cups. To maximize total volume you do 2 cups; what should the angles be? Permalink 7:51 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Same with insurance models. Loss from hurricanes aren’t what you think are losses from hurricanes, even if your estimate of the intensity is correct. Why? Because the costs of the material goes up nonlinearly owing to (conditional) excess demand. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am the ONLY one who is impolite and crass. Others are polite and well behaved (except that Joe is learning to be rude) https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1239597221827485699   Permalink 5:34 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something UK modelers (idiots) did not get with hospitalization that we traders and modelers in nonlinearities have know since (1997): The market is a large movie theater with a small door. Same for hospital capacity. Gabish? Permalink 5:29 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Nerds: In 2008, The B of England was managing risk w the “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model” which assumed no banks, NO TAILS & no crises. They got insulted when I called it a fraud. Epidemiologists have similar flaws. No tails from model error. No perturbations. https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032   Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bravo. https://twitter.com/BillNeelyNBC/status/1239669547331878915   Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So we spend >700bn on imaginary risks from listening to IYI geopoliticians & journos when in fact the true enemy is a virus you pick up doing high five with the bartender. Time to fire the Foreign Affairs/Think Tank establishment, close political “science”depts & reset. Reset. Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I laughed so hard people I drank the wrong way & started coughing which scared everyone around me! The “BS Busting” operation seeking to eradicate statistical BS. pic.twitter.com/xnOUKZOdTk Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just a reminder that “Risk Parity” is a scam. Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The scoop: @realDonaldTrump’s staff relied on OUR memo from Jan 26 (@normonics & @yaneerbaryam), which gave solid grounds to ignore “academic” naive forecasting models estimating low impact from the China virus. #PrecautionaryPrinciple https://twitter.com/ProfMJCleveland/status/1239399258689806336   Permalink 9:14 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb That was 2010. https://twitter.com/elimane/status/1239553070310338563   Permalink 7:30 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The place where: Ramses II, Nebuchadnezzar, Esarhaddon, Caracalla, Napoleon III, etc. left commemorative Stellae. Preserve Nahrl Kalb! Help protect the site from real-estate fraudsters. https://twitter.com/byzance11/status/1238864209636659202   Permalink 6:44 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Long walks. 18000 steps yesterday https://twitter.com/ban_kanj/status/1239275546896470022   Permalink 1:40 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Marks my words: 1) @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein will go down as open dangers to society, 2) Thaler’s models have already been debunked so if he is ever remembered, he will be remembered for his fake research. https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/1239284574909165568   Permalink 1:28 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So the methodology (with heuristics we can even teach at #RWRI) is figuring out potential model impact from simple nonlinearity. Alas, many epi models turn into pure hogwash. Nice representation, but unreliable for decision making. pic.twitter.com/hJlgAMqWVI Permalink 1:22 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “You are free in inverse proportion to the number of people to whom you can’t say “fuck you”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:06 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why you are harming others by not “overreacting” https://www.academia.edu/42223846/Ethics_of_Precaution_Individual_and_Systemic_Risk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sojDM03Oia”>  pic.twitter.com/sojDM03Oia Permalink 10:34 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Us vs @sapinker and “evidence based” pseudo-empiricism. From a #RWRI attendant https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1239215510723706880   Permalink 8:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. A #RWRI Sunday strip with @nntaleb & @financequant & Raphael Douady. This strip is included in my newest mini-book Nr. 3 available here: https://gum.co/IJgDY   Previous buyers will get a free update per e-mail ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1ZYkbSkHUf”>  pic.twitter.com/1ZYkbSkHUf Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb *My profession=finding holes in models by IYIs I selected SIMPLEST SIR modelto check sensitivity to parametrization/convexity to error, common w/3 nonlinear ODEs. Every refinement to nonlinearM creates EXPLOSION of errors,curseofdimensionality (Yan & Chowellfor improvements) pic.twitter.com/NvDmy9Qy1k Permalink 8:18 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Here is my code, in case I made mistakes. It’s from the elementary SIR differential equations. pic.twitter.com/RUfrTNSSsz Permalink 7:02 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Policy is a speculative lunacy. Playing with the toy standard epidemiological SIR model. We have no idea how model parameters cause a yuuuge variation in ourcomes. We don’t even know the central parameters/whether stochastic. Try to add perturbations for “herd immunity”. pic.twitter.com/fTJ7pWRlaT Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@wael_atallah Thank God there is still some sense in the world! Chocolate Hummus not selling despite the panic. pic.twitter.com/2vQzOJXTVu Permalink 1:07 PM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Herd Immunity & ANTIFRAGILITY What drove me bananas is some imbecile who said “it was an antifragile strategy”. NOTHING can be antifragile unless you remove the left tail. I go bananas when people cite me backwards. Permalink 10:42 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Done! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238507124495396874   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NDZVDRggnC”>  pic.twitter.com/NDZVDRggnC Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #zerohedge #notasafehaven #riskyparity @RayDalio https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bridgewaters-macro-fund-crashes-20-amid-historic-turmoil   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/I5sDdlpZD5″>  pic.twitter.com/I5sDdlpZD5 Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Joe Norman, @yaneerbaryam & I did not “react” on Jan 26 with out paper. We had been preparing for the statement since the poor understanding of Ebola’s tail risk. This is from Nov 2018. pic.twitter.com/YnG903XBTV Permalink 10:08 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am a risk analyst & probability modeler. Not a virologist. I assumed reinfection possible because of lack of evidence. But if virologists (like this UK a @TheCrisk) state that reinfection is common for other Coronaviruses (this one has too short a life), then CASE CLOSED. pic.twitter.com/MW6kHPTc27 Permalink 9:56 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK’s “herd immunity” risk-blind strategy hinges on unempirical psycholophasters’ theory abt “crisis fatigue” & “nudging” BS. Assumes 1) no reinfection 2) hospitals will not be overwhelmed (w secondary deaths), 3) disease must return 4) no vaccine is coming Total IYI Lunacy. Permalink 9:33 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam How to stop an outbreak (and why China won’t have to reimpose restrictions) Squares represent individuals: grey susceptible; yellow latent; red infected and contagious; black deceased or recovered; and light blue are isolated. 1/2 https://necsi.edu/beyond-contact-tracing   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/H19cxDDhpn”>  pic.twitter.com/H19cxDDhpn Permalink 4:43 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There MUST be laws barring economists from doing regressions, just as there are laws preventing fortune tellers from giving medical advice. @DrCirillo https://twitter.com/kuhnmo/status/1238421190903042049   Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And obviously in Aramaic: Syriac and Mishnaic pic.twitter.com/M2itdDU7C2 Permalink 2:29 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Apparently there is ستر in Arabic could be cover but so uncommon that I wonder where it is used. Permalink 2:24 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (Proverbs 27.12) Note the Lebanese “setra” from נסתר (apparently not in Arabic); unless we find an Aramaic equivalen it would be Phoenician. Permalink 2:05 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb יב ערום ראה רעה נסתר פתאים עברו נענשו In Lebanese (literal): L 3aa2l lamma yshuf l khatar baddo l stra, L basit bkammel wbyékela In Lebanese (saying) Alf jabén w la alla yer7amo. #PrecautionaryPrinciple Permalink 1:53 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNACY IN THE UK Very clear on “herd immunity” assuming immunity is reached, no permanent damage, and NO VARIANCE for the parameters. https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us-133583utton   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nSnQ88cdTH”>  pic.twitter.com/nSnQ88cdTH Permalink 12:36 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Only way to counter the fools at 10 Downing is for team w/@yaneerbaryam & @normonics : 1-Pressure US gov to block travel from UK 2-Issue guidelines for UK citizens to protect themselves from both corona & the gov of Boris-the-dupe @BorisJohnson 3- Show errors in epi studies Permalink 9:48 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Full book is here https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1238489377006915589   Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The hardest thing to absorb for a “well educated” IYI is: absence of evidence ≢ evidence of absence https://twitter.com/shoughtonjr/status/1238468313249746945?s=20   Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb About everybody seems to be working under the hypothesis that those who recover from the virus are permanently in the SAME condition as those who never got it. Permalink 7:10 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SKIN IN THE GAME All those in the UK who are in favor of the “herd immunity” BS should self-infect with the virus. Includes ALL decision-makers, science advisors and “Boris no Precaution”. Now. #SkinintheGame is about filtering those with systemic danger out of the system. Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@neilchriss Of course I prefer 90% doors locked to no doors locked. I also prefer Russian roulette with one bullet vs two. Justifying a bad alternative by presenting worse ones is precisely why most people suck at risk. Permalink 6:07 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/MTayyabAhmed/status/1238438782032121858?s=20   Permalink 5:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If you don’t like my style, go follow the Washington Post. Never lecture someone on her or his style! pic.twitter.com/C7od3zVZH3 Permalink 5:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. Permalink 5:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238421868778004480   Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 41 langues. https://twitter.com/BellesLettresEd/status/1238434444459102208   Permalink 5:00 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@Premysl_The_Man Over 1000 volunteers for http://endcoronavirus.org   will fight this. Lower connectivity, now! @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) On Jan 26 when ~1000 infected people we issued our warning on how to handle the pandemic: take no chances, stay ahead of it. Precautionary measures based on symmetry of errors. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208?s=20   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) You don’t board a plane w/safety w/p-value of .05 (likely to be miscomputed). If they used their “scientific” approach to risk management no pilot would be alive today. Risk require much more reliability than “evidence based” methods which are backward-looking & flawed. Permalink 4:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK NUDGE UNIT 1) Just as before the crisis of 2008-9 I was shouting that economic “experts” were no experts, we will sorely discover that behavioral “experts” are even more unreliable. 2) Even psychs admit behavioral papers replicate <½, that is the reliability of astrology. Permalink 4:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb h/t @sothisispietro Permalink 6:49 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually, it is not obvious. Medication might be accelerating their problems. https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1238259635095834626   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/gwzRVXuHRg”>  pic.twitter.com/gwzRVXuHRg Permalink 6:18 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “Automation makes otherwise pleasant activities turn into “work”.” – Nassim Taleb #automation #robotics Permalink 5:41 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The thick paper pic.twitter.com/VLDtexYoFl Permalink 11:08 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friends, the PDF for the Technical Incerto (expected >2 volumes) will be free. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Two options: (Note Amazon may list with big discount) Permalink 10:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@GuruAnaerobic Mayoral hopeful @RoryStewartUK has been retweeting @nntaleb https://twitter.com/OliDugmore/status/1238092742770733056   Permalink 10:24 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@okeyego The point of panic is to prevent the virus from spreading in the first place, imbecile, not to help those already infected with surviving. Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@normonics Dear @GovChrisSununu Please see my letter below as well the note we wrote in January that drove the travel restrictions that have bought us time. I submitted this letter on your website as well so you have my contact info there. Please don’t hesitate. Best, Joe pic.twitter.com/YQsEC83kXt Permalink 8:52 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Remember that the US is not a Republic but (still) a Federation. The president can control foreign access, but not what happens in the States/communes. Some States such as NY are ahead of the game; they even ordered their own testing kits. Others so so. #Localism Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Psychologists themselves own that >55% of their results don’t replicate. I’ve shown that 100% of what they do in fat tailed domains is exactly backward. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb REMINDER: Psychologists as a collective are probability-ignorant BS vendors publishing unrigorous crap. Just a reminder. https://twitter.com/INSEAD/status/1238095034773393410   Permalink 6:48 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Donaldo: If you own the mahhket on the way up, you will also own it on the way down. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1050766705667047426   Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SOLUTION: market expects +/- 11.3% swing. This is a classic confusion because operators don’t understand what “volatility” means. Just as psychologists who deal with “correlation” and p-values don’t know what these metrics mean. pic.twitter.com/pLqoArwyh6 Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Correct the yuuge error. Hint: in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tail, but won’t tell you where. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   https://twitter.com/EddyElfenbein/status/1237037101184581636   Permalink 7:24 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Point is: all we need to do is slow down the growth, CUT THE TAIL–we can’t eliminate it. Unfair to favor the UK but simpler to execute. The virus is already here so the idea is to let it expire. Our proposal of Jan 26. infections were <1% of today’s https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8bJofwmMWr”>  pic.twitter.com/8bJofwmMWr Permalink 7:01 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Trump woke up. He understood that the solution is acting NOW in reducing connectivity. 30 days travel ban from Europe is perfect. Let the states ban public transportation/close all gatherings for 30 days. Permalink 6:20 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb What psychologists like this dangerous fellow @vaughanbell call “evidence” is something that fails 55-60% of the time, and has a p~ .05. With a p~.05 no pilot/flight attendant would be alive. Permalink 6:10 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Someone shd ban psychologists from talking probability. New book counters idiots ignorant of Risk & Extreme Value Theory who talk about “evidence”. Soon in hard copy. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   https://twitter.com/vaughanbell/status/1237791294954635267?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PFfiBnZG7c”>  pic.twitter.com/PFfiBnZG7c Permalink 5:49 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA TRICKS Friends pls add suggestions No fasting >20h No bread (can’t disinfect) unless you bake it yslf No sushi/raw meat No intense exercise. DL 80% max, at risk of detraining No public transp., no valet parking No Thaler/Nudge Unit No bars; if you must No nonalchlc bev Permalink 2:18 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ATTENTION Friends in the UK Beware the recommendations of the “Nudge Unit” and “evidence based” BS. They are more risk creators than mitigators. Learn from Korea, Singapore. In the US, Governor Cuomo is doing the right thing. This is the outline of my paper “nudge sinister”. pic.twitter.com/vtciWmMBaT Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The “nudge unit” & “evidence based” will wreck the U.K. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1237789942950105088?s=20   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Kluuuuuuelessly dangerous. The fellow @vaughanbell is a psychologist. Invokes “evidence based”: you need “evidence” of a crash before putting your seat belt on. The U.K. is doomed by government listening to “tenured” psychologists and nudge operators, like Thaler & other idiots. https://twitter.com/vaughanbell/status/1237743124107100163   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking IMBECILE, this was never presented as a “prediction” but as a warning about the fragility of SOME systems as they globalize. Permalink 1:22 PM – 10 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson: Those who panicked early don’t have to panic today. Permalink 11:01 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explaining “Black Swans” and their connection to Fat Tails in new technical book. pic.twitter.com/SuaW8JZjm7 Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Oh no! https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1237027356314869761   Permalink 8:16 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those who need help reading pic.twitter.com/Vx0H5d3ZeW Permalink 7:38 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@mikeharrisNY As this wise man @nntaleb has said #ES_F $SPX pic.twitter.com/PdIzYi7ngj Permalink 6:51 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@paulportesi You just haven’t seen the other side of the distribution. @nntaleb This quote has always stuck with me. Its elegance and power. I never forgot it. Well… We are seeing the other side of the distribution. Permalink 7:13 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb How to Panic If You Must: discussion with @yaneerbaryam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2Kga5HeAqk&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 5:17 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BTW, from The Black Swan, in 2007. pic.twitter.com/IdbFjunEg1 Permalink 1:21 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The great Cato-the-wise, Cato Sapiens, Cato Censorius, or (in Staten Island, Cato-no-nonsense) would be turning in his grave & characteristically seething with anger at the misuse of his name by that imbecilic institute. PS-As we explained,deaths *lag* infections because…time https://twitter.com/CatoInstitute/status/1236720095205957634   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@pierre_fraser Le #coronavirus et les erreurs journalistiques Dans un tweet dont seul @nntaleb a le secret, ce dernier à souligné que « L’Italie ne met pas à risque son économie pour combattre le virus, mais que […] » https://pierrefraser.com/2020/03/08/attention-aux-erreurs-journalistiques-versus-le-coronavirus/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OHEkPuzt86″>  pic.twitter.com/OHEkPuzt86 Permalink 12:02 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And of course the payment was not made. In spite of pressure by #RiadPonzi & the banksters. Good news. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1228712310404980736   Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@trishankkarthik More reasons not to venerate the cult of the youth: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1029699401260781568?s=21   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1029699401260781568   Permalink 9:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (No, nothing chemical. They are spraying Greek-Orthodox holy water.) Permalink 9:29 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The gym in Amioun (my ancestral village). Yet no virus in the area. Maybe the precautionary mindset in the genes (or, perhaps from the local olive oil). I guess I should go there. pic.twitter.com/R6m9ZuMEfa Permalink 9:20 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Solution. Joe Shipman tried (and failed) to ruin my weekend. (deleted previous owing to typos ) pic.twitter.com/Q3tFAeSjr5 Permalink 8:06 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Footnote: I framed the Tennis Problem as if it were the COVFEFE riddle. pic.twitter.com/YyY7lXVR01 Permalink 7:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beware Journalistic Fallacies Italy is NOT “risking” the economy to fight the virus. It is lowering the risk for the economy by fighting the virus. If the coronavirus proved something, it is that the half-learned (journalist, psychologist) is the greatest danger for mankind. pic.twitter.com/tIhXsIZRpb Permalink 7:15 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@Untiroalaire What pisses IYIs off is realizing how untaggable @nntaleb is, while their whole lives have revolved around labelling others. Aim for untaggability. Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@koushikp Unfortunately despite all your efforts, many haven’t understood the concept of limiting factor. The capacity of the healthcare system isn’t unlimited. So the mortality rate isn’t a linear number as being spewed out across many IYIs across the internet. Permalink 6:41 PM – 7 Mar 2020

Silver Rule, Charles Murray, Localism, LEBANON, Mariana Mazzucato, UBI, REITS, I MADE A MISTAKE, Corruption, Peterson, IQ, Stefan Molyneux, Aquavit, Swedes | Twitter

I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals.
Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev.

@TalebWisdom “Complaints don’t deliver complaints, they mostly reveal your weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:49 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hint: The Golden Rule is NOT Lindy. See Isocrates’ rule. https://twitter.com/fpingham/status/1192417188113764352?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Phku3tSBjz”>  pic.twitter.com/Phku3tSBjz Permalink 4:26 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Tonight’s Lecktshur at @LAUNYHQ, I present the problem of the Golden rule: intrusive, vs. Silver Rule. #Localism= Silver Rule, rejection of golden rule. #Lebanon Nobody should ever force you into something “because it is good for them”. pic.twitter.com/gkIpz0ivOk Permalink 4:17 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@Mangan150 Big Food – the largest global food corporations – and what they make. They turn cheap sugar, seed oils, and refined grains into profit. A big impetus behind the vegan push. pic.twitter.com/36OpQRzNFl Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Nov 2019

@thegeforum Nassim Taleb says the hedge fund industry is the correct model for investment management… “dont tell me what you recommend… tell me what you own”. Hedge fund managers eat their own cooking! This from a man not accustomed to giving compliments! pic.twitter.com/0XWhr32TiZ Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating *why* you had to say it. Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/stalingrad_poor/status/1191740023265091584   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Stalingrad_Poor/status/1191740023265091584   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@novak_ma Few months ago I read Fooled by Randomness by @nntaleb and deleted my stock watch app from phone. I checked my stocks just once since then. Feels good. Permalink 9:20 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb BTW, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, just a little reminder that you are an impostor, a fake scholar, a fraud. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640   Permalink 7:46 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When as****les call you “arrogant”, you are on the right side of ethics. https://twitter.com/fadesingh/status/1191740272704573440   Permalink 7:45 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Just found a mistake in my paper concerning the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition (as I had the wrong description): the testing metric is always thin tailed EVEN if the underlying variable is fat tailed. pic.twitter.com/VOwRRgWDUZ Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The incoherent fellow (an ethnic Druze chieftain claiming to be socialist) is a specimen of someone who lives in the wrong century & fails to understand #localism. Pple are more interested in electricity & public services than geopolitical incantations. https://twitter.com/walidjoumblatt/status/1191665339945361410   Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@Decafquest On people who are afraid of cameras by @nntaleb: Relevant today more than ever. pic.twitter.com/647tMUjhmo Permalink 3:41 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “We learn the most from fools … yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:35 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Religious Fundamentalists (including atheist fundamentalists) aren’t just usually morbidly stupid; they can be detected by the total absence of any sense of humor. https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/1191487729407873026   Permalink 5:42 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Localism is the new … communism Permalink 3:28 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Voila. The informal title is “ Localism, Complexity, and busting the BS by IYIs ” Please let me know if you are joining. https://twitter.com/launyhq/status/1191453179629715456?s=21   Permalink 1:26 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@LAUNYHQ Join @nntaleb at #LAUNYHQ 5:30-7pm Thursday evening Nov 7 for a pop-up seminar on Localism and its Application to Lebanon – space is limited, first come first serve, register here https://www.eventbrite.com/e/localism-and-its-application-to-lebanon-tickets-80078479889   Permalink 12:32 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please indicate in this thread if you wish to come. Limited to people involved in the Lebanese situation. This is not about #Localism in general rather its application to Lebanon. (Swiss specialists welcome to join as CH is the model for multiethnic multireligious localism) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1191152050471677953   Permalink 7:02 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb NEW VERSION Principia Politica #Localism https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 4:38 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Naive universalism attracts IYIs and self-righteous psychopaths https://twitter.com/yhazony/status/1191165326249070594   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/98JaV4R7vH”>  pic.twitter.com/98JaV4R7vH Permalink 3:45 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I will present #LOCALISM with respect to #Lebanon next Thursday at 5:30 in New York (before I leave NY for the Republic of Amioun). An application of PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Venue to be confirmed #LebanonProtest Permalink 4:35 PM – 3 Nov 2019

@levelsio “For I have a single definition of success: you look in the mirror every evening, and wonder if you disappoint the person you were at 18, right before the age when people start getting corrupted by life. Let him or her be the only judge; not your reputation” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:57 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I can understand someone defending Iran against Salafis/Saudi Arabia. Never anyone -supporting Iran’s regime in the murders of Iraqi youths -supporting Iranian interference in the #Lebanonprotest, largely by youths FED UP w/their exploitation for geopolitics. #Localism Permalink 8:48 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1190426291515908098   Permalink 6:43 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@financequant To all at RWRI 12, travel safely. It was a pleasure to work with you. Permalink 6:19 PM – 2 Nov 2019

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb summarizing Wolfram’s Principle of Computational Equivalence at #RWRI Any two systems that display non-trivial behavior are just as sophisticated as each other in terms of range of computation (not speed or memory) Deep implications for IQ pic.twitter.com/hK9RZizT1D Permalink 2:15 PM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game @tarekmilleron American Airlines flight attendants stand up to Boeing CEO on 737 MAX https://reut.rs/2qcPPz6   Permalink 11:17 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou Sh3aybiyé at #RWRI ! https://twitter.com/firsou/status/1157585257073430529?s=21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/l36yXHk69X”>  pic.twitter.com/l36yXHk69X Permalink 10:10 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Heinonmatti Hey, @VergilDen is here! Banking system moves from right to left in the network fig –> vulnerability to targeted attacks. [Hope he talks about fighting later.] #RWRI pic.twitter.com/4Q1NvpvtLz Permalink 8:38 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON A bit of empiricism French and UK voters send their “heroes” Churchill and De Gaulle home after the war. Same with Bush the elder after the successful Persian Gulf war. War arguments & “resistance” do not register during periods of peace. #LebanonProtests #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou “It’s unnatural to prepare” I agree 100%. Never prepared for a presentation while I was being told “you need to have notes”. If you need 10 pages of notes why should anyone listen to you? #RWRI Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE LIRA I hear that the Lira is trading at ~ 1675. No worries. A 10% deval. is nothing since the Lira commands much higher int rates than USD. [A holder of LIRA would still be profitable.] Even a 50% deval. would just cover the last few years of interest r differential. Permalink 5:46 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@RubenGao Don’t f*** with the tail! pic.twitter.com/HGw2rBpriO Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@arisroussinos Via Facebook, Oxi Day celebration by the Greek Orthodox community of Damascus, part of the Patriarchate of Antioch, among the last surviving Greeks of Syria pic.twitter.com/BpvGRoIG2V Permalink 2:52 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@birdxi1988 A great day at #RWRI @nntaleb mentioned the link between Kelly Criterion and entropy as well as why tail fitting is more an art than a science! pic.twitter.com/4S1CD5ptxI Permalink 3:57 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@Heinonmatti @nntaleb continues; you can rule out Gaussian distributions by observing one outlier, which would be ~impossible under the Gaussian, but much much more common under another distribution. Another way is to rule out based on physiological / biological bounds. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/UsZFsVHgQd Permalink 2:06 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 An explanation for fat tails from feedback loops: “Abyssus abyssum invocat” תְּהוֹם-אֶל-תְּהוֹם קוֹרֵא Permalink 8:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1189905740825288705   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1189906294725120000   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1189879515511754753   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4/n Problem of teleology: the French Gov. started explicitly an internet (Minital) and failed, what survived is the side effect of a military application. @MazzucatoM: Given the % of GDP by government, what % of innovation came from government? Didn’t gov displace private invt? Permalink 10:06 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/n @mazzucatoM claimed that by attending Princeton high school she attended a “state school”. Scale effect: it’s a school for the residents of the commune, equivalent in its functioning to a private school. Permalink 10:01 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/n Govt bureaucrats are not boring & lacking in innovative drive because they didn’t study strategy in business schools (i.e. because of their education) as claimed by @mazzucatoM, rather boring people tend to work for government. Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 1/n Just listened on way to #RWRI the @econtalker podcast with @mazzucatoM about the government role in innovation “investor of first resort”. Will comment further after I read the book, but found many flaws in reasoning by Mazzucato: Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:25 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/gordo_68/status/1189549437821095936   Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI entropy pic.twitter.com/Hco7vTWOco Permalink 7:19 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 : Robert Frey ⁦@financequant⁩ showing how the “blind watchmaker” (see book by BS vendor @richarddawkins) is improper characterization of evolution and complex systems: a watch half built is jot a watch. pic.twitter.com/iW8rn5XuIm Permalink 6:22 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity.” Permalink 5:12 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo At #RWRI, @nntaleb, @financequant and @normonics are fighting over the best definition of entropy… I don’t see why, given that the best definition is mine : a pseudo-metric of distortion, whose interpretation varies with its generator. Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo Live from #RWRI, @normonics speaking about networks. pic.twitter.com/5Y1jtmVaWq Permalink 11:47 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@coordinatedsync #RWRI pic.twitter.com/wKmsJBVBjG Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The way political parties and militias self destruct. They can use weapons against ISIS and Israel, never against their own constituents. They are done. #لبنان__ينتفض #LebanonProtests pic.twitter.com/hXWWArIwCQ Permalink 5:23 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr Skin in the game also has an intrinsic moral appeal and aesthetic value: Real virtue isn’t cheap. And it turns out skin in one’s own game is a moral minimum; more admirable is skin in other people’s games—­altruism, or what he calls “soul in the game” Permalink 5:16 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr For Taleb, skin in the game is an expression of intellectual virtue. One isn’t actually thinking well if one doesn’t have some sense of accountability for the outcomes of one’s judgments. Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@NonMeek “Take all the risk you want but don’t f**k with the tail.” -@nntaleb That’s one central idea from yesterday’s #RWRI 12 starting session. BOOM Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@visualizevalue — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CJQRGHBkM9 Permalink 7:02 PM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ramses XII Riad Salameh now blaming the messenger for revealing the Ponzi he orchestrated. He is implicitly using the currency as a threat. Instability is preferable to fake Ponzi stability. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/10/28/beirut-lebanon-protests-riad-salame-becky-anderson-ctw-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@StartSocieties Excited for @nntaleb’s next book. Politics framed as a complex adaptive system totally changes political priorities. Let’s focus less on top down solutions, and more on building political systems that enable antifragile problem solving. #localism https://buff.ly/2MQMr5w   Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 pic.twitter.com/aSrEOiRb5V Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 pic.twitter.com/o0rMJZCTb9 Permalink 5:18 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 To all #RWRI folks, wish I could be with you for my 6th visit…if nothing else to ask questions born from my confusion. Have fun! @nntaleb @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @VergilDen @Jed_Trott and the rest of the gang. Permalink 4:07 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes! https://twitter.com/HabibSHaddad/status/1188513669388349440   Permalink 11:14 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1188496796110209029?s=20   Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A kind of network, but not desirable (one dimensional), but beats standard statist hierarchies. pic.twitter.com/XKhytgCC2i Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Beirut Madinati now writing IN LEBANESE! Congrats! #Localism #LebanonProtests https://twitter.com/BeirutMadinati/status/1188469504910774277   Permalink 8:11 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same in Semitic languages: Heb עבודה = work, and עבד 3bd= to be a slave. https://twitter.com/GreekEtymology/status/1188080169292046337   Permalink 7:20 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. It is just to clean up my feed for a dialogue with minimum sophistry. Permalink 6:21 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb coercion Permalink 5:59 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain complexity and spontaneous order, with the “leaderless” Lebanese protests which baffles intellectuals, journos, Arabists, & other ignorant idiots looking for agency. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests https://twitter.com/Limportant_fr/status/1188364771504115712   Permalink 5:58 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Mr Ewan Birney @ewanbirney, sorry but you don’t understand the “quantitative trait” at all. @StuartJRitchie is, practically, analytically, a fraud who can fool someone who doesn’t know what correlation means. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1187712684751511552   Permalink 11:23 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@rationalwalk If UBI was referred to as a negative income tax, which it actually is, and if replaces rather than is additive to welfare, it would be a hugely popular idea across the political spectrum, except among the bureaucrats who’d be out of a job. So they’ll demagogue this to death. Permalink 11:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on STATISM My problem w/”socialists” is that they are statists & intrusive, not pro-welfare. I am for a negative tax (minimum income)= to $$ spent on welfare, saving spending on bureaucrats. But they refuse because they want to DIRECT how ppple spend $ & pay cronies. Permalink 11:03 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb CEMENT IN LEBANON. As in elsewhere, construction is a mafia business. Cement Imports are banned to benefit factories in Lebanon (that employ Syrian workers). Lebanese citizens pay TWICE the price for concrete. The margins are shared by the Kleptocrats. #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 10:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ἔλεγεν δὲ αὐτοῖς ὁ Ἰησοῦς ὅτι Οὐκ ἔστιν προφήτης ἄτιμος, εἰ μὴ ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ, καὶ ἐν τοῖς συγγενέσιν καὶ ἐν τῇ οἰκίᾳ αὐτοῦ. Mark, 6 Never never try anything beyond nudging. https://twitter.com/Crimson28481571/status/1188138692034154498   Permalink 10:04 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb We have so many capable people in the diaspora or ex-diaspora. Based on his track record, I propose @DrFadloKhuri as a member of the next cabinet. Or someone along such a profile. https://twitter.com/AUB_Lebanon/status/1187702093374803968   Permalink 7:32 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@PZalloua At the demonstrations today: “Lebanese Style” pic.twitter.com/w3EnHkGKca Permalink 6:48 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The point is that whatever is not worthless is psychology we already know from elsewhere. The issue: bad science is worse than no science. https://twitter.com/just_1_singh/status/1188082946772619264   Permalink 6:22 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@encrier improvised signs for today’s protest pic.twitter.com/V0uW0QgoMD Permalink 5:17 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People who were previous ashamed of writing in Lebanese feel now empowered to do so! Even Nasrallah spoke in Lebanese. From chaos you get a new order. #ComplexSystems #Localism #BottomUp #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض https://twitter.com/Marcellenassif/status/1188053343253479425   Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Over time for the sake of efficiency & owing to, say, preferential attachment, networks are pulled into the center, from unifom to power laws or maybe lognormal. The one of the left collapses. Centralized systems end up collapsing after pseudostability Explained in #TheBlackSwan Permalink 7:37 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@Cernovich Who are the five wisest living people today, in any country in the world? Permalink 4:34 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The problem with historical reporting is overestimation of agency: narratives require leaders so people are fooled by journos etc. about the exact process. Same overestimation of agency as the one in #fooledbyrandomness #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 2:45 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To the left, how both Nasrallah, his enemies, & journalists think Lebanese Politics should work. To the right is how the protesters proved it works. Complex systems generatee spontaneous order. Progress lies in having NO leaders. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests pic.twitter.com/BBSy7tY91V Permalink 1:33 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The central aspect about the Lebanese riots is that there is no leader. #Localism https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185929047441842177   Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Actually song in Lebanese #Localism https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1187797354268844032   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@normonics @nntaleb look at the traction kanye talking about localism is getting. first, the self and mind, then the family, then the community, gardens, agriculture, etc. bottom up. local first. meme is sticking. Permalink 11:31 AM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntalebbot “What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have; it is what he or she is afraid of losing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 24 Oct 2019

@ronaldchagoury Sooooo well said – I’ve never been able to put my finger on it, and this is so spot on. The resentment class who rarely have skin in the game Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Nobody seems to be getting what I am saying: The assets of the ETFs should be dropping, no? Easy/tight money affects real estate, not just ETF. Permalink 9:28 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@VergilDen And then make changes to the educational system as NNT points out in Principia Politica https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1187393313894273024   Permalink 8:43 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why the REITS are still rallying? Rates are net, net higher. https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1187388458471440384   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8DcX4jkjJS”>  pic.twitter.com/8DcX4jkjJS Permalink 8:40 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Women in #Lebanon https://twitter.com/marcellenassif/status/1187361618541326336   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Don’t miss @nntaleb tonight at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium at the Bern Dibner Library (5 MetroTech Center, Brooklyn, NY). https://bit.ly/2Pe4cNO   #NYUTandonMade @nyutandon https://twitter.com/NYUFRE/status/1187015193294987267   Permalink 7:36 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@mcclay_roman This page from you is framed and on the wall of my little container home. pic.twitter.com/nFCEujPQeo Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I do not wish to be considered for any official position in #Lebanon, so PLEASE remove my name. I prefer to help in other ways. This is the 3rd request. #LebanonProtests pic.twitter.com/xVMUqiB47s Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No, pple in Lebanon & elsewhere aren’t complaining abt “inequality”. The “inequality” is a claimm by the resentment class: journalists, academics (Pikety) & other losers. They want better conditions, governance, justice, accountability & skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 4:17 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@paulportesi Missed this about a month ago. Very interesting data point. @nntaleb has mentioned how using ice for injuries has no scientific foundation if I remember correctly. Align to Nature. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/25/well/move/weights-muscles-cold-ice-bath-weightlifting-exercise-recovery.html   Permalink 11:28 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics will lecktshur at #RWRI about complexity and multiscale properties of “tings”. He has 54 minutes plus 11 Q&A. Raphael, @financequant myself, & others will heckle him (we can stand heckling). https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1187068911986118661   Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) With Modi also no tie (twice). Only exception: the US Senate. They refused to let me testify without a tie, so I borrowed one. pic.twitter.com/bycwHwwFsT Permalink 2:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals. Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev. pic.twitter.com/QV2R1BKDs9 Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb These low-intellect Western Arabists trying to force their 1001 night identity on us don’t know that “merci” came to Lebanon via Turkish, Armenian, & Farsi. The Edward Said “collonial” is Total BS: the French spend 2 decades on a military mandate. pic.twitter.com/hT1JeZkR5n Permalink 1:36 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb What if the army went after the people? Not many options #lebanonprotest https://twitter.com/danifromic/status/1187081376077619200   Permalink 12:35 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A heuristic to pick out a fraudster in #Lebanon, helpful for the selection of new ministers: 1) Wears a tie (hence empty suit), & 2) Speaks on TV in Classical Arabic (a dead Semitic language, similar to shouting in Medieval Latin in the UK Parliament). Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy: the latest format and a #Lindy text pic.twitter.com/algPBvUhdW Permalink 10:49 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@shreyansh_jain1 That’s a foolish statement. The fundamental problem of food supply is food wastage. So it’s a supply chain mgt problem. It’s the other way around here. Organic farming takes more space to patch the quantity of wasted food. You desperately need lessons from @nntaleb. Permalink 9:30 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb How the Lebanese State destroyed the economy [English subtitles, including the “Gabish”] https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1186693565872824321?s=20   Permalink 9:25 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@PZalloua This is how revolutions are made: Lebanese style! pic.twitter.com/aheiKcxIyb Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: If my enemies knew me better, they would hate me even more. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Proud of my Archbishop! Vacuum is better than what we currently have. pic.twitter.com/fuWaGwSBZw Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb, will present “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” as part of the NYU FRE Lecture Series this Thursday at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium. This event is open to the public. #NYUTandonMade Permalink 7:37 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 9- CORRECTION I MADE A MISTAKE Trusting Hariri’s claims of balanced budget. #Lebanon https://www.facebook.com/557151507/posts/10157358489701508?sfns=mo   Permalink 6:50 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@ShipSystem In Norway being a village local means so much for any job even over more qualified person from next village. Have u ever lived in Norway because ur tweet is 100% true. Maybe norwegians socialist on some aspects but super localist on most aspects. Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb BernieSanderistas are trying to promote a fake idea of “Nordic Socialism”. Nordics are 1)Yuugely localists (see #Antifragile on communes); they empowered local lang [Danish, Norwegian, Swedish] & don’t call them “dialects of Nordic”. 2) Are NOT socialists [Soc. failed in 70s] Permalink 5:47 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Fuck, no. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is Arabic. Write to me in Lebanese. Permalink 5:06 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders, stay out of this. You’re like a quack doctor who will kill the patient. The socialist (centralized statism) you are selling is what ruined Iraq, Syria, Egypt over the past 60 y. Lebn has little to do w/”Arab” Spring. Pple are fed up w/ kleptocracy/statism/Arabism https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1186762286507220994   Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard .@HillaryClinton, your foreign policy was a disaster for our country and the world. It’s time for you to acknowledge the damage you have caused and step down from your throne. http://tulsi.to/hillarys-disaster   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/h2fl7ox0Rv”>  pic.twitter.com/h2fl7ox0Rv Permalink 2:56 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR Option traders might recognize some sort of butterfly pic.twitter.com/ca7Y9ZtJxh Permalink 2:25 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@Extrachelle An excellent book deserves a good LaTex bookmark #SITG @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Hz9LxvkmA6 Permalink 10:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain it to them? https://twitter.com/Humanityfirster/status/1186678737862975488   Permalink 9:49 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ducavendish “the larger the central state, the more patronage.” Fucking brilliant. Still, people just don’t get it. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1186633663506780162   Permalink 7:13 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rest in peace, David Freedman. You were the first BS buster in statistics, and trained me to it. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1186642155110043649   Permalink 7:11 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ektrit For anybody with knowledge of actual history like Taleb, #LOCALISM is how the world functioned until mid 19th century, with the implementation of nation-states in Europe. As perspective, the current global setting is just 200 years young out of 6000 years of documented history. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1186634471887527937   Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb You have a moral duty to write in the language of the population. The French parliament does not use Latin. Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I refuse to use ARABIC, an elite COERCIVE language not spoken by the population. If you want me to write in anything, I use Levantine in the Lebanese version. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 6:57 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7- SOLUTIONS It would be nice to but some kleptocrats in jail, particularly that funds are traceable. This will happen. But it is PATRONAGE that needs to go. Let me repeat, PATRONAGE! This can ONLY happen via decentralization as the larger the cental state, the more patronage. Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 6- People are angry because: a-they share the debt burden w/no benefits b-the Leb State messes up everything it touches, except security c-unlike Maluf, kleptocrats do not deliver The need for religious “harmony” allowed a multi-sect “elite” to milk the system to the bone. Permalink 6:18 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 5- (Cont some clarity about #Lebanon) Corruption doesn’t necessarily kill economic activity (Brazil’s Paulo Maluf “steals but delivers”). Except that the way the Petit Segneurons operate is to use their franchise by imposing yuuuge red tape: No electicity, no garbage collection! Permalink 6:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4- The patronage system got out of control: government contracts grabbed by cronies, in a scheme orchestrated by people in/out of government, s.a. the Grand Segneura & many less visible Petit Segneurons populating ministries. Kleptocracy is traceable& illegal, not patronage! Permalink 6:02 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3- Meanwhile the Gov is that of a federation, which is good (via healthy sectarianism) but government service is simply PATRONAGE, for each sect to get the max from the system. A healthier federation is to do it according to geography, via municipal power. Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2- Luckily the Ponzi involves only 2 parties, Leb Gov (via Ramses XIII Salameh) & the banks. Hence easy non-inflationary cancellations w/clawbacks from those who made millions are possible. In the meanwhile Gov is taxing back the banks to cover secondary deficit, very smart move. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #LEBANON, in Summary 1- Leb government got involved in a Ponzi (facilitated by Ramses XIII, Riad Salameh) that sucks up all funds from the system. People have no incentive to put $ (say inheritance from a childless maternal aunt) in a business; get >10% interest from the bank. Permalink 5:46 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same with #Lebanon driving rules: except for speed, chaos is beneficial. Speed limits are necessary because of nonlinearity. From #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/mIp166DxZQ Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Waiting in line is not always efficient as it can cause traffic jams. At RWRI we recommend that people overcome these arbitrarily & unempirically derived English manners & avoid waiting in line at the buffet lunch. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1186551994892206080   Permalink 4:44 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@BLebnene On @reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/dleyvl/technocracy_wont_solve_our_problems_we_need_a/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share   Permalink 3:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ofer_rubin After they fail those imbeciles NEVER forget to say “this wasn’t real Socialist”, f**king utopia drug dealers. Permalink 4:14 AM – 21 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No. Very naive topdownism. Every degree of complexity reduces odds of success by 1 order of magnitude @lebaneselingui1 https://twitter.com/lebaneselingui1/status/1185972215382249476   Permalink 10:42 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@DarkoAlexandar Cuánto de esto aplica también acá en #chile https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185928446062542848   Permalink 10:25 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Riad Salamé, let me know when we can talk. We need to discuss the Ponzi you helped organize (and what the exact numbers are). There is no way citizens should inherit such a debt burden. Given that primary deficits are ~OK, you have some explanations to do. pic.twitter.com/Wr9NJhyAUj Permalink 9:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb KLEPTOCRACY: It is important to note that corruption is NOT necessarily in the government (often composed of transient ministers) but deep in the opaque administrations. Which is why decentralization makes things salient. Permalink 8:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People in #Lebanon are figuring out spontaneous crowdd order. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hTNC0olXIw”>  pic.twitter.com/hTNC0olXIw Permalink 7:41 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM in LEBANON pic.twitter.com/Bym65b0st4 Permalink 7:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7ada 3am ystghll 2sset l léj2in! Hiyyé l mshklé yallé 2abado 3layon! https://twitter.com/XXVlllV/status/1185898997564751873   Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@Zzeghedrane Diaspora, this is our contribution to the uprising! Fund the people to keep going! Water, food, snacks, masks, whatever they need. $20 can give water to 60 protesters! Please share!! #LebDiasporaProtests #LebDiasporaFunds #لبنان__ينتفض https://www.gofundme.com/f/1sdqrcksqo?utm_medium=social   Permalink 6:20 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Question is whether “Baabda vaut bien une messe”. (Henry IV converted to Catholicism to become King of France. He didn’t have a Greek Orthodox mother.) Beyond the joke, under the LOCALISM program, the president is a mere clerc, as in Switz. Lower rank than mayor of Amioun. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1185492162470916097   Permalink 4:56 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@semperfidem2004 Another excellent argument for #Brexit. Nothing at all “shows very easily” in the EU https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185513868921049088   Permalink 3:05 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Lebanese in Boston, Tomorrow, Sunday the 20th, starting at 4 PM in front of the Boston Public Library – Copley Square Protest with us! Bring your flags and signs! Spread the word to your Lebanese in Boston metro! #LebDiasporaProtests #لبنان_يثور #لبنان_ينتفض #يا_ثوار_الارض pic.twitter.com/QM9HoudTGx Permalink 6:18 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rioting Lebanese style https://twitter.com/nxbeeel/status/1185611015842607104   Permalink 5:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Petition to get the ball rolling on this with @nntaleb https://twitter.com/hachemyassin/status/1185707172476456960   Permalink 5:16 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@HachemYassin Admittedly this needs a lot of work on the ground. M people became accustomed to think they are entitled to things from the state, with the famous “wayniyye l dawle” cliche. dawle is there, but it is the problem,not the solution.sadly, protestors think the state shld provide jobs Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2) The current villains (Siniora, Berri, Basil) will, over time, look much more like villains, whether justified or not. Salamé will, of course, be dragged through the mud. #Lebanon PS- I spend a week per month there but missed events because of #RWRI 12 Permalink 4:02 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb RIOTING LESSON 101; When rioters win concessions from the governement, they ask for more. #Lebanon 1/n Permalink 12:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@dzviovich Concentration of wealth is an emergent property of a complex system such as the economy. https://bit.ly/2oVYyFs   . It is also a property of rent seeking societies. The other emergent property, social mobility, will not show up. Picketty and friends seem to ignore this… Permalink 5:41 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Only in Lebanon. https://twitter.com/melodielaggaffe/status/1185528761426599936   Permalink 5:38 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@jadabdala a phoenician mediterranean saturday – Lebanon – le phénix renait de ses cendres pic.twitter.com/5zQ6yCQVMH Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a … Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Friends, a lecktshur open to the public next Thursday. But it will be mathematical, so non-quants please refrain. Based on my new book, Vol 1 of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yhp3OdC62H”>  pic.twitter.com/yhp3OdC62H Permalink 6:42 AM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For those not used to Twitter language (or aphorisms), “it’s not” should be translated into academic discourse unburdened with space constraints as “not necessarily so”. Permalink 9:05 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb One hitch: Donaldo’s letter is closer to that of the Sultan than to the response by the Cossacks. Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Donaldo’s letter to Erdogan will be remembered in international affairs as the 2019 version of the Cossaks letter to the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed IV. pic.twitter.com/qzA4jLZgP5 Permalink 6:22 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Infrastructure is commonly held to be a good thing. It’s not. It creates winner-take-all effects in communication. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1184692165345267712   Permalink 5:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Treating George W. Bush as an authority on peace and stability is similar to relying on a drunk driver (while drunk) as the expert on road safety. https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1184611576378265600   Permalink 6:27 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 I held that something as absurd as the pseudo-Nobel in economics would end self-destructing. No point fighting it: it would collapse under the weight & monstrosity of the fraud. You can’t fool people forever. 2019 did the job. Permalink 6:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Sanctions work with countries like Turkey & China that depend on the West, not with Iran/Syria after 40 years of autarchy. The mere threat made the currency collapse. Permalink 5:31 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I am impressed. The economic weapon is a much, much more effective one than the military one. We are no longer in 1936. Trump got it. https://twitter.com/DaniFromIC/status/1184575524389163008   Permalink 2:28 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@normonics All over the world, you see a common theme: Decentralization is a threat to the ruling classes. https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/1184558211988447232   Permalink 1:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fasted way to become poor is to socialize with the rich. Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Peterson is a charlatan. https://twitter.com/MZAntonius/status/1184320883285995521   Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@yaneerbaryam Antidepressants and other psych meds are personality change operations. Medicine/psychiatry/psychology are in a primitive state and do not understand context-individual complexity. Meds should be used only as a last resort. @MichaelSagnerMD @nntaleb See https://amazon.com/Psychologys-Ghosts-Crisis-Profession-Back/dp/0300178689   Permalink 5:16 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Well oh well… Tulsi the most searched candidate in 49/50 states yesterday. Seems like #UnusualAmericans want to know more about her. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1184324191119724544   Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This guy is a fraud. https://twitter.com/ascendantpower/status/1184105213675921410   Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Oct 2019

@NonMeek This #Offshorecomic strip was done in collaboration with & inspired by @sean_a_mcclure‘s https://medium.com/@seanaaron100/intelligence-complexity-and-the-failed-science-of-iq-4fb17ce3f12   Thanks for your brilliant inputs, Sean! #IQ #circularity cc: @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Li0lnvP0eb”>  pic.twitter.com/Li0lnvP0eb Permalink 10:57 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@Prof_BearB Nice piece. Brings to mind a point that I didn’t make in my book: if I (and @aaronclauset and @nntaleb + @DrCirillo) are right about the absence of decline and @tanishafazal is right about battle deaths, we’re actually *trying* to kill a lot *more* people today than we used to. https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1184116033872891904   Permalink 8:03 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@ryanckulp everything by @nntaleb. each loop = 1% absorbed https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg/status/1183792839299235840   Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb M7n vs Manyaké as described by @Confusezeus You call a number, ask for Joseph: – “Jozef Khouré hon?” – Wrong number. Call again, same thing. That’s “m7n”. Call 3rd time: Hi, I am Jozef Kouré. Did anyone call for me? That’s manyaké. Permalink 6:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The most untranslatable word I know: “M7n” in Lebanese. Unlike other untranslatable expressions, you cannot even easily describe what it is. Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Be stubborn https://twitter.com/Seananocoistin/status/1184038568966144001   Permalink 3:29 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@sahouraxo A short little history of war propaganda: Vietnam 1964 – Gulf of Tonkin incident Gulf War 1990 – Incubator Babies Iraq War 2003 – Imaginary WMDs Libya 2011 – Nonexistent massacres in Benghazi #Syria 2019: Video from a Kentucky military show passed off as Syrian war footage https://twitter.com/gizmodo/status/1183773245163687936   Permalink 5:43 PM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists (unless they have mental issues, in which case they become psychologists). And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:31 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists. And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:27 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Good news: > 100,000 lawsuits. Engaging in systematic iatrogenics is becoming very unprofitable. After Monsanto, J&J, now waiting for statins, seed oil, etc. https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-legal-challenges-mount-11571055242?shareToken=st588f2ec699f14312a493edf4bde4220b   via @WSJ Permalink 10:26 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on How the Nazis (& predecessors) created a link with (some of) the Mediterranean populations, to manufacture a common “race” with former Barbarians and a continuum of civilization. Chapoutot, thanks to recommendation by @holland_tom pic.twitter.com/KEdcKrbFHb Permalink 9:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Voila, there don’t seem to be many other f(x). pic.twitter.com/G9u0CU21Ns Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Math QUIZ du jour. (Please refrain from commenting outside the exact topic.) pic.twitter.com/jsQuIsC7GS Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@newtgingrich Why is the left so afraid of Tulsi Gabbard? I don’t understand the viciousness of the atatacks on her by the NY Times and others. Permalink 2:25 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Η ελληνική καταγωγή των Ρωμιών της Συρίας που σήμερα σφαγιάζονται από τους μουσουλμάνους https://meaculpa.gr/apopsis/33837-i-elliniki-katagogi-ton-romion-tis-surias-pou-simera-sfagiazontai-apo-tous-mousoulmanous   Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@jun78th Scale transformation is so important a concept – so much mismatch in scale between problem and solution often. When mismatch is minimal, life flows richly. I do hope you are able to (successfully) educate a new generation on scale transformation Permalink 7:11 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The cat is out of the bag. Antifragile is no longer in my control. https://twitter.com/IvanBlecic/status/1183378277278388224   Permalink 6:47 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb He got it! Hyperlinks are distracting. This is not. #Lindy! https://twitter.com/davidboxenhorn/status/1183260484121833472?s=20   Permalink 6:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For COMMENTS pic.twitter.com/eTMMitpVsP Permalink 5:49 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In the PRINCIPIA I explain that people used to welcome individuals but reject groups qua groups (cf hospitality of Arab tribes for n<5 pple, hostility otherwise). They still do but are confused about it. “Racism” is not scale-free. https://twitter.com/teddyjwhitman/status/1183362653022048256   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Eveentually, this pic.twitter.com/1FxmBnhTRg Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb When you ask people what restaurant they *would* like, they answer: comfortable, not too noisy, with room & no wait. Yet they wait in line to pak in tiny rooms with yuuge noise levels & the mobility of the Tokyo subway car. Same for books. Make them dense. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1183336137391108096?s=20   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/rbN8SyBFQq Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The inside: unfortunately one needs to break paragraphs manually pic.twitter.com/CHhlc5rXTR Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb OK, smaller fonts in the margins. Note it is done in LaTeX @Firsou pic.twitter.com/ilN7fNdb6u Permalink 3:57 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally the “Tufte style” is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile Permalink 3:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@bogdanosk Οι «Ρουμ» της Συρίας και του Λιβάνου ανήκουν στο (ελληνόφωνο ως το 1897) Ελληνορθόδοξο Πατριαρχείο Αντιοχείας. Έχουν ελληνική κληρονομιά που χρονολογείται από την ίδρυση της Αντιοχείας το 323 πΧ, καταγόμενοι από αρχαίους Μακεδόνες και βυζαντινούς Ρωμιούς. https://meaculpa.gr/apopsis/33837-i-elliniki-katagogi-ton-romion-tis-surias-pou-simera-sfagiazontai-apo-tous-mousoulmanous   Permalink 2:30 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any type of activity or business divorced from the direct filter of skin in the game, the great majority of people know the jargon, play the part, and are intimate with the cosmetic details, but are clueless about the subject.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:17 PM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game, Brussels pic.twitter.com/Ri9mkMwPm6 Permalink 10:33 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@noedelafuentemd @nntaleb @RyanHoliday #stillnessisthekey pic.twitter.com/7featfQoJY Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Food can only be Lindy. And technology (Amazon) can reduce the distance between supplier and consumer. pic.twitter.com/X1WO7RU4D0 Permalink 8:05 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/visithmml/status/1181721190714527747?s=21   Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Referees should have skin in the game. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1182262130566938624   Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@FedericoPistono It is a special kind of satisfaction to receive the Incerto pentalogy by @nntaleb, in glorious deluxe hardcover, bought with fuck-you-money I made starting my own businesses from scratch, taking risks. pic.twitter.com/RkHIOVmSTu Permalink 4:52 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Here https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 5:03 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy My next book is in this format. https://twitter.com/erik_kwakkel/status/1181962553628483584   Permalink 4:58 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Mehdi_IR_DC My own reason for not liking psychology is that its point of departure is human arrogance. To understand human mind and to fix it! Religion on the other hand starts from the point of human humility, it has via negativa. Permalink 3:50 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Arch_Revival_ Before & After Hungarians replace ugly modernist building with a new build in the Classical tradition. A beautiful city is a better city. Budapest pic.twitter.com/TPiRSli9o6 Permalink 3:39 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Debating… Molyneux? If someone offered you to debate an animal in the zoo, you will be equally offended. Permalink 8:39 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@satyakatla Have chanced upon a #DataScientist lecturing, who has no idea about probability and stating that distribution is drifting from the assumption, hence wrong prediction. What he doesn’t get is it is wrong distribution to start with. @nntaleb succinctly mentioned this here: pic.twitter.com/aSVtmEAFmv Permalink 7:46 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Finaly for the identity Gov. Debt = Asset you need the asset to have the same value as if determined by the real market under selection pressures. Permalink 4:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@walid970721 I just found this tweet by Ken Roth from 2018 that shows what a moron he is. Of course the majority of the refugees are going to be Sunni when they form the majority of the population. Claiming that it’s proof of ethnic cleansing is idiotic. #Syria https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/1013454626694234112   Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Plus or minus the usual typos. pic.twitter.com/qGyuGLFpNQ Permalink 2:16 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Asking @sapinker to talk about … tail risk? https://twitter.com/phil_papa/status/1181854183487606784   Permalink 2:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@briteless You will never get the f*** you money* by winning arguments. (Advice to a young adult who wants to become personally free, financially independent, and freely pursue his interests). – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/AfrikaKesho/status/1181267585511370753   Permalink 12:31 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Quiz du Jour, Romanian Mathematical Magazine. [Flight to Brussels] pic.twitter.com/AWKuYjJeHQ Permalink 4:35 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally there is something of interest here: group IQ != average member IQ. Complex systems are about interactions. Failure of mean field. Permalink 4:25 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@stephen_wolfram Even after 35+ years the simplest cellular automata are full of new things to discover… Noticed in a livestream yesterday: rule 73 has randomness in its left- or right-of-center column, but with 3:2 white:black https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/s.wolfram/Published/Rule73.nb   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sp4d4RWZ8g”>  pic.twitter.com/sp4d4RWZ8g Permalink 3:49 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb NEVER read anything written by journalists, just look at prices! Correct: “Stocks dropped less than a Mean Deviation because of very slight order imbalances caused by a tiny minority; a small number of unidentified motivated investors adjusting their holdings.” #MinorityRule pic.twitter.com/Xz3TOQtlY8 Permalink 10:27 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FINAL. Thanks everyone for the help. pic.twitter.com/vDI9g9e5TK Permalink 5:32 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Shawarma is not from Turkish but (Eastern) Aramaic, as the Turkish itself (çevirme) originates from the Eastern Syriac Sha-warma, where there is a shift “b” to “w”. “Barma” means to rotate, just as in “gyro” and “rotisserie”. @turlevnon Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THIRD VERSION Large Kafkaian centralization units such as Whitehall, Brussels, etc. “Elite” undergraduate education pic.twitter.com/jmakcYOcRg Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Tis is probabilistic, so the idea is that 3-7 out of 10 items will be gone. Permalink 3:43 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@financequant The trend to relentless centralization will collapse (after much suffering). This has happened in the small with many ex-socialist countries. Consider Sweden which restored a market economy and decentralized its social programs; e.g., school vouchers. http://bit.ly/2ARDBhq   Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@Dark_Realist https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400?s=19   Permalink 1:49 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2nd version pic.twitter.com/aUuCaAKOZS Permalink 1:08 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FOR COMMENTS Friends, was asked to “predict” what would happen by the end of the decade. Used Lindy. pic.twitter.com/xCqtBIPZ2T Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Why under convexity you don’t need to be a “good” forecaster. pic.twitter.com/7ckH9FA0W6 Permalink 5:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Convexity is often missed in: + finance (gamma, model error) + evolutionary biology (mean-field) cc:@yaneerbaryam (Even those who support group selection s.a. Wilson accept the non-convexity math). + forecasting (verbalistic Tetlockism) + behavioral econ (failure of mean-field) https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1080800546813034499   Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The market is like a large movie theater with a small door. And the best way to detect a sucker is to see if his focus is on the size of the theater rather than that of the door.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@davidgraeber remember any Turkish invasion of Rojava will be a NATO invasion of Rojava. Any genocide they carry out will be NATO genocide https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/americas-kurdish-allies-syria-turkey-nato   Permalink 2:55 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@Kitsune808 Echos of Taleb multiplying… @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jtepper2/status/1180784381570486272   Permalink 12:53 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@ektrit There is study of Theology/Church History by studying the Church Fathers and There is study of Theology/Church History by understanding that Church Fathers were in the 0.1% of Educated Elite. So, all theological conflict was among the top 0.1%. Night and Day approach. Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Oct 2019

@DellAnnaLuca THE DYNAMICS OF THE ANTIFRAGILE (thread) Where does the ability of the antifragile to benefit from volatility come from? Can this ability be increased? What policies increase it, and which decrease it? 1/N Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@VergilDen When charlatans, BS artists, and imbeciles try to team up against @nntaleb https://twitter.com/newcuiture/status/1180855329468424192   Permalink 7:46 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Further, the identity in Debt = Money an entity called “we” owes to an entity called “ourselves” fails ergocity. #ergodicityeconomics @ole_b_peters Permalink 6:23 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “You know you have influence when people start noticing your absence more than the presence of others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 3:24 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@birdxi1988 At first glance,it seems that ergodicity transformation is same as log utility but with a fancy name. This just shows you why they are so different https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1180431542096666624   Permalink 10:48 AM – 5 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS you should not live with: coercion of identity by the state or some IYI. https://twitter.com/LebAmUniv/status/1179690962756526081   Permalink 2:54 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes! Doing something that is boring, unnatural, and devoid of organic stimulus is not (necessarily) virtue. It is meant to train people to become good bureaucrats and other slaves. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1179505096335474691   Permalink 2:52 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/ +Need for *adult supervision* (international) of Salameh & others, no need to replace right away. Permalink 9:21 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/ + Government cannot control the corruption, located is in the “deep” ministries. Changing minister is of no help. +Nonpolitical decentralization only solution. +Central state great at managing sectarian tensions …but incapable of dealing with economic life; it’s a burden Permalink 9:20 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE FINANCIAL SITUATION, INTERVIEW Recorded for LBCI (Thu 9:30 PM). + There ~no primary deficit, so no risk of big collapse. Debt is circular Bank-State. + People are so scared that ANY reduction of uncertainty (via moratorium) would be yuugely beneficial Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In real estate you make money buying the overpriced and selling when extraoverpriced. Avoid the “affordable” crap. https://twitter.com/ibrahimwarde/status/1179397774162481152   Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Any sucker who buys “Bullshit Claire”’s version of anything or argument about any topic is blocked for intellectual deficiency. Gabish? https://twitter.com/patrissimo/status/1179392526551322626   Permalink 7:10 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4 hours dinner conversation with @rorysutherland and Rohan @Silva in a Pakistani restaurant in London (2 bottles of wine, but no Negroni). You must buy two copies of Rory’s book, in case one is stolen, lost, damaged (by the rain), or self-destructs. pic.twitter.com/Xa5WFOGCNt Permalink 3:03 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb So conforming to his status of fake scholar, @charlesmurray promotes a thread by *Claire-the-hysterical basketcase* without any of them knowing what I actually said. Note: Anyone who ever cites Charles Murray on anything becomes a fake scholar. https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/1178784796891238400?s=21   Permalink 9:28 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@GultekinBurce Small Probability, High Impact Payoffs: The horizontal line can be the payoff over time, or cross-sectional over many simultaneous trials. Full article: https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility   by @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/F4o8X5IQ1M”>  pic.twitter.com/F4o8X5IQ1M Permalink 1:04 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@STrosterud Yes. Nothing like Taleb accusing the Swedes directly for their Nobel shenanigans Makes both my Norwegian, and Finnish side smile pic.twitter.com/P1ybneyIgF Permalink 11:42 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@paulportesi And the evidence comes later. @nntaleb https://news.yahoo.com/moneywatch-cvs-pulls-zantac-similar-133851787.html   Permalink 7:12 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I meant they changed room to the largest one based on registrations. Permalink 7:04 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Volante team. Volante is a publisher in Stockholm. pic.twitter.com/2VpDfhrlBR Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room. https://twitter.com/volanteforlag/status/1178218694234820609   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room. https://twitter.com/VolanteForlag/status/1178218694234820609   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@AntonioBlaGra While Taleb’s Real World Risk Institute #RWRI was not one of the organizations I reseached, I realize now that it certainly presents the three characteristics of the Internet Culture: open knowledge, decentralization, and reputation based in what you do. https://realworldrisk.com/   Permalink 3:10 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Except that the Nobel Prize of Literature has the remarkable ability to pick non #Lindy authors too embedded in their time: For France, Sully Prudhomme, Fréderic Mistral,Roger Martin du Gard,Romain Rolland, Anatole France,… https://twitter.com/thomasjbevan1/status/1178602114290982912   Permalink 2:34 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And desertions, and typhus, and the mud. And he kept losing horses throughout. Permalink 1:32 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon is a prime example of *winning almost all battles but losing the war*. Permalink 1:15 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The single biggest hit was the Pyrrhic victory of Borodino (if we can call it a “victory”). Permalink 1:01 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/chasewpatterson/status/1178563602497691648?s=21   Permalink 12:05 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox churches are even more beautiful! https://twitter.com/xxvlllv/status/1178336300325380103   Permalink 12:02 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon was also the grandmaster of fake news, doctoring up his “bulletins”, misreporting his casualties and those of the enemies, even when he was the winner. Permalink 11:55 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb He simply lost 2/3 of his troops to the Russians and the Cossacks. Permalink 11:51 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb MYTH DU JOUR Napoleon was not that great invincible general who was defeated by the Russian winter, nonmilitary circumstances. His Grande Armée had lost 2/3 of its soldiers before the first frost. Also remember that he (twice) deserted his own army. Permalink 11:46 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Never include in your company name “Forever”, “Long Term (Capital)”, or “Amaranth (Capital)” (flower that never dies). https://twitter.com/LieraMarco/status/1178558793707245568   Permalink 11:37 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@Marcellenassif Ideal morning coffee mug pic.twitter.com/nvpNdVi3Kb Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the case of @michaelshermer it was not that I block idiots; it was that I block charlatans, @Monsantobuster https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1178312535822479361   Permalink 7:24 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Looks like you got the idea backwards. pic.twitter.com/iSNHZJuJSq Permalink 7:22 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@VolanteForlag Finally in Sweden: @nntaleb! Today we are looking forward to a great day in Gothenburg at #bokmässan. Miss that? Tomorrow he will lecture in Stockholm. Tickets here: https://www.medborgarskolan.se/arrangemang-sok/skin-in-the-game-forelasning-med-nassim-taleb-1176833/   @bokmassanGbg @medborgarskolan ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zVG2IrEEcZ”>  pic.twitter.com/zVG2IrEEcZ Permalink 1:03 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Aquavit is so strong the Swedes have to drink beer with it. pic.twitter.com/jZaJyxieL3 Permalink 11:53 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Giving a lecktschur on Stockholm Monday Sept 30 in the evening to introduce the Swedish edition of Skin in the Game. https://www.medborgarskolan.se/arrangemang-sok/skin-in-the-game-forelasning-med-nassim-taleb-1176833/   Meanwhile aquavit. https://twitter.com/bkzafar/status/1177942090082377729   Permalink 10:12 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@bkzafar Since no one would believe me otherwise. Got seated next to one of my favourite authors on the train from Stockholm. Welcome to Gothenburg @nntaleb :) pic.twitter.com/NipSN268Mr Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Explanations: 1- Lebanese banks are NOT lending to businesses, but to the government to service the debt… to the same banks. That’s what I called “circularity”. 2- Merchants now realize that an IOU from another merchant is safer than $ in the “bank”. Salameh needs to go. Permalink 2:05 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 3 + Traditional Lebanese politics along ethnoreligious lines are put on hold (now, money talks). Parties are deemed equally incompetent. Old system of *state employement as political patronage* goes out via attrition. + Real decentralization. Permalink 1:50 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 2 The system fixes itself + People realize that banks returns are not risk-free; Any income generating project than lend to the “circularity”. + Increase in governance from sudden transparent + Noninvestors take a haircut from past gains. Permalink 1:34 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION + The primary budget is about balanced; pressure is from debt servicing. + Higher rates drain the economy as real investment returns pale compared to bank deposits *in US $*, leading to a circularity Gov-Banks-Depositors. Let the system fix itself! Permalink 1:25 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (Continuing the thread) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1177850770252845058?s=20   Permalink 12:58 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 16 That rationality is about ideas, & beliefs (or religion) can be “irrational”. No. Rationality is about action. There is no axiomatic framework for rationality that includes beliefs. It is what you do. #SkinintheGame https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 12:41 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@NupurJoshii I love how Nassim Taleb writes his books! There’s a summary to each section and each chapter.. There’s chapter notes . There’s a guide to the book. There’s hilarity and brilliance all at the same time. I mean. It’s wonderful ! Permalink 11:53 PM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Now first statement by Quilletebecile Young @toadmeisster: “IQ is a better predictor of socioeconomic status than parental socioeconomic status” is plain BS. IQ does not predict income/wealth (close to R^2=0, with cheating they get <.04). Permalink 10:42 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And By the way, Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister, we now have the same raw longitudinal data as the ones used by these studies. Permalink 10:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister you can now go find ALLLLLL the “studies” you want, the effective R^2 IQ tests to economic condition is ~0. Keep trying you and your Neo-Eugenist friends. Permalink 10:21 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb As an Orthodox, today was the second most important day for me (after my baptism). The highest ranking person in Orthodoxy, His Holiness Bartholomeos 1 Patriarch of Constantinople, gave me his blessing & a small gift. It was on a plane out of Constantinopolis. pic.twitter.com/qVAeY9jl5f Permalink 10:05 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Mr Young’s own data shows an R^2 of .04 for IQ-Income. He is talking abt socioeconomic condition. Where is the 80% heritability? Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Quillette people make up numbers. This does not show “80% heritability”. Toby Young is a fraud. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177583074202308610?s=21   Permalink 8:09 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid The “State of the art in SS Fcing” is a review paper for lay readers clarifying what we know, what we are not sure and what we don’t know about the field plus what has been achieved lately The paper is part of the M4 Special Issue of the I. J. of Forecasting @robjhyndman @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/4XjFL2LF6t Permalink 4:59 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In fact IQ is 0% correlated to socioeconomic status, Mr Young @toadmeister Fraudster. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1172597583174414336?s=20   Permalink 4:51 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Plomin estimates IQ *testing* is 50% heritable, itself weakly correlated to performance. Plus testing is also 80% correlated to other tests. I estimated R^2 of 0% for socio-economic performance. @toadmeister is a quack reciting some Quillette invented mantra. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese (not Lebanese Armenian) manti (shish barak) is cooked in goat milk yoghurt with Med herbs (laban immo) and left to marinate for a bit. Permalink 4:08 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This idiot Toby Young by saying IQ is 80% heritable is not even representing the literature which (falsely) claims a maximum of 50% @toadmeister https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177351195503026176?s=20   Permalink 3:47 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb + sur les bords + pauvre con (h/t @firsou), very different from petit con + fofolle + bancal + bon chic bon genre + pour ta gouverne + foiré Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Noticed that in Tatarstan & Kazakhstan they stuff their manti with horse meat, and, mostly, horse fat; the yoghurt is made from mare’s milk. Permalink 3:27 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Which confirms my theory that Quillette is managed by a collection of low-intellect, low-skilled BS vendors, using poorly warmed up pseudoscience to promote a eugenics agenda and, of course, incapable of hiding it. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177351195503026176   Permalink 2:58 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Manti (Istanbul): the ancestor of ravioli. Except, of course, better. pic.twitter.com/1NtTDfNpP9 Permalink 2:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Democrats: If you are using information from the whistleblower, you MUST ask for Assange’s exoneration. #Coherence Permalink 11:19 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TMFStoffel “Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling” *THIS* more than anything else, is the thing that — once you see it — you can’t un-see. It’s not just Rand. It seems like scale is something that we *ALL* struggle with. But once we see it, it changes everything. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1177267073409605634   Permalink 8:01 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile https://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Disorder-Incerto/dp/0812979680/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&linkCode=ll1&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 6:34 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Ofer just answered the central point: we are not really talking about selfishness, but symmetry. So long as do you not transfer risks to others, you are honorable. You are even more honorable when you take the risks of others. https://twitter.com/ofer_rubin/status/1177294276302127105?s=20   5/n Permalink 11:55 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (cont) + plouc + de souche + marche a coté de ses pompes + petit con (the “petit” is central) Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This said there are a lot of words in French I know that have no (potent) equivalent in English which come to me in Fr: + vivotter + glander + minable + tête à baffe Permalink 10:41 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This does’nt make “selfishness” honorable. Nature has no junk: it recycles & makes fertilizers out of animal & human waste. Likewise society recycles somewhat selfish pursuits as fertilizer. So we should not be glorify selfishness, no more than we do w/excreta. 4/n Permalink 10:08 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling. In that sense I prefer people to focus Mandeville who inspired Adam Smith’s “it’s not the benevolence of the butcher…” A good society is one that via scale transformation makes a virtuous collective out of somewhat selfish individuals. 3/n Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb a hero who serves the collective (expected return is negative as 999/1000 will fail) and there is no such thing as a “failed” entrepreneur; I subscribe to virtue ethics and Christian morality which makes some of her stances repugnant to me both as a Christian & a Classic-ist. 2/n Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I do share a lot of readers with Ayn Rand and there are some commonalities: 1) To do good, focus on your own business, 2) Bureaucrats are evil, etc. But there are yuuuge differences. I do not believe that individuals should be “selfish”, I do believe that the entrepreneur is 1/n Permalink 9:56 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Should be illegal! https://twitter.com/chemblette/status/1177260448347054086   Permalink 9:46 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@zmpng Breaking a 24h fast with squid ink paella. Does @nntaleb approve? pic.twitter.com/Ctj76IX7A5 Permalink 9:11 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The point is not about Trump but the system. I can easily understand why someone can hate Trump. But changing the rules under asymmetries effectively destroys the system. Permalink 5:49 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb My take: Collusion between two parties needs to emanate from an explicit transaction or a well defined offer, not something vague in a conversation. It should be subjected to the same standards as contractual obligations. Otherwise everything can be interpreted as collusion. Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Bottarga with rosé. pic.twitter.com/rPgg3cuI8J Permalink 3:29 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@MarkAmesExiled “The Houthis were only nominally Iran’s surrogates, but they were also our quiet partners against al-Qaeda.” Uncanny how often we try to wipe out Al Qaeda’s enemies https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-military-officials-who-knew-saudi-arabia-would-fail/   Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or is this Ukraine thingy a pathological delusion? Read the transcript. https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1176910531338199040   Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Blunder duJour: Was telling someone on the phone in French “you gave me invaluable advice” (abt food, of course), came out as literal translation “un avis sans valeur” which means “an opinion of no value” & realized after hanging up. Wonder if I will ever get more food tips. Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapouri, Med version pic.twitter.com/UcDxCp5WDC Permalink 1:30 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@rperezmarco “When the scientist points at research the imbecile examines the number of papers” (you can quote me for this one). https://twitter.com/HigherGeometer/status/1176404487272980482   Permalink 2:50 AM – 24 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Actions > words. One of the best rules I know. pic.twitter.com/Z9if9Sy2BT Permalink 11:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019