Tag Archives: IQ

Saudi Arabia, IQ, U.S. Academia, David Graeber, TRUE WEALTH, Harari, Nate Silver,@BallouxFrancois, #RWRI 14 | Twitter

Taleb, le penseur qui va changer votre vie (pdf)

We discuss 1) the errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics, why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks, 2) how evidence based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks, 3) the risks of morbidity must be accounted for 4) how the dangers of vaccines do not scale.

@nntaleb What’s the betting market for Saudi Arabia before Nov 1? Permalink 2020-09-11 21:58:13

@nntaleb Beirut Airport. 100% go through PCR testing before entering, on top of the need to produce a 72h test. I believe that overactive testing (even if high error rate) + masks + constraining superspreaders effectively allow you to keep functioning. Cheaper than lockdowns. Permalink 2020-09-11 19:50:11

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew then). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:44:41

@nntaleb Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew than). Permalink 2020-09-11 19:41:40

@nntaleb Fuck, no. This is fake credentials to het benefits. Permalink 2020-09-11 17:40:19

@nntaleb En route to the Phoenician coast. I am told that this may prevent jet lag. Permalink 2020-09-11 14:54:44

@nntaleb 2/ Yes, nitpickers & other idiots, such a filter will fail to select people who got recently infected. But the point is not abt individuals, but the system. All you need is the growth rate to collapse. Fewer pple infected ➜ fewer pple infected ➜ Fewer Permalink 2020-09-11 09:53:28

@nntaleb CHROMOCLASSIFICATION is absurd, infused with political motivations & exploited by groups leeching on the historical suffering of a certain group. Instead use “historically disfavored groups”. Americans from Indian origin have the highest income, shd be excluded. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:44:56

@nntaleb On a transatlantic flight: every passenger & crew member must be COVID negative (w/72h test validity). Overactive testing is the solution. Permalink 2020-09-11 09:38:21

@nntaleb Ahla!!!! Permalink 2020-09-11 00:49:48

@nntaleb Ahla! Min wén hiyyé? Permalink 2020-09-10 21:15:48

@nntaleb This also confirms. But I initially got 1/48 analytically Permalink 2020-09-10 14:17:50

@nntaleb 1/42 Permalink 2020-09-09 20:17:26

@nntaleb Excellent! Permalink 2020-09-09 17:33:27

@nntaleb Something like an amuse-gueule Permalink 2020-09-09 15:34:59

@nntaleb The first Livias were Swedish and/or Swiss Permalink 2020-09-09 12:43:49

@nntaleb Qual è il tuo personaggio preferito in “Commissario Montalbano”? Permalink 2020-09-08 19:55:22

@nntaleb I like it that John Clesse likes my books. But I like it much much better that he both likes my books and hates Pinker’s. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/books/review/john-cleese-by-the-book-interview.html Permalink 2020-09-08 18:56:14

@nntaleb Doesn’t mean infinite mean deviation. Only that the 2nd moment is undefined. Can explain next #RWRI Permalink 2020-09-08 18:53:38

@nntaleb How many people on the *true* left disagree with this? Permalink 2020-09-08 12:24:50

@nntaleb All #Ponzi schemers enter a phase of denial. #RiadPonzi Permalink 2020-09-08 12:23:19

@nntaleb Too much diversity among doctors. Permalink 2020-09-08 12:07:53

@nntaleb Another interesting thing: Tower of Babel is migdal Babel in Heb. Same as “Majdl l 3a2oura” or مجدل عنجر @Marcellenassif @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-08 11:59:01

@nntaleb 13 ½ years after The Black Swan someone formally investigated my statement about the tail difference between SCALABLE (authors) and NONSCALABLE (dentist, prostitute) occupations. Permalink 2020-09-08 11:36:36

@nntaleb Swimming distance. Me too. Permalink 2020-09-07 18:45:33

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL CONFUSION DU JOUR: TOWER (πύργος) A Is the Homeric Greek πύργος origin for برج burj, (itself perhaps from Urartian) via Syriac ܦܘܪܓܳܘܣ or ܒܘܪܓܐ or is there a common root? [BrgiBorges, Borgia] B What is the connection to a) appearance b) divination [See below] Permalink 2020-09-07 18:40:21

@nntaleb Are you in Cyprus now? Permalink 2020-09-07 18:04:34

@nntaleb Block trolls. Permalink 2020-09-07 16:39:18

@nntaleb CLueless Permalink 2020-09-07 16:24:48

@nntaleb Summary thread. A forecast MUST account for its own error. Since small probabilities are convex, uncertainty raises them. Nate Silver & Phil the Rat🐁 @PTetlock didn’t get that ALL methods end up converging to the same price (Tetlock🐁 never understood the Brier Score). Permalink 2020-09-07 15:27:20

@nntaleb L tarjamé taba3 Google Permalink 2020-09-07 15:16:58

@nntaleb Friends, do we have data on COVID infection rates for flight attendants & others from exposures in airplanes? Thanks. Permalink 2020-09-07 11:15:53

@nntaleb We have plenty, in Greek and Latin. Permalink 2020-09-06 20:09:45

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, populations are not defined by nations. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-09-06 19:50:23

@nntaleb Jaydeh hiyyé modernista te3rib! Mni7a bleghghetna! Permalink 2020-09-06 19:23:51

@nntaleb Lebnen: Men l Ponzi lal Te3dir (Antifragility) by @BLebnene Permalink 2020-09-06 19:21:42

@nntaleb Much of the problems of modernity is taking religion literally and science metaphorically, rather than the reverse. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:47:21

@nntaleb “We” changes over time intergenerationally. Permalink 2020-09-06 17:43:39

@nntaleb 2) thread Permalink 2020-09-06 16:31:06

@nntaleb A Phoenician revival in Sicily when AUB trained-inspired Orientalistidiots-Arabista-mononculturistic fascists & halfrained thinktank losers are trying to repress it in #Lebanon as a “sectarian” thing. Permalink 2020-09-06 16:30:26

@nntaleb RWRI slides Permalink 2020-09-06 13:58:42

@nntaleb If you are going for squid ink, Beirut is better. If you are going for Data Science, another story. Permalink 2020-09-06 13:35:36

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink 2020-09-06 13:34:50

@nntaleb Try the $49.95 worldwide guaranteed price at the Scribe store @zachobront https://thescribestore.com/collections/frontpage/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb Permalink 2020-09-06 12:37:19

@nntaleb Squid ink in Cyprus is indeed one of the best. But Beirut’s squid ink is better. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:34:10

@nntaleb Bent’s reply. Never engage in a large scale project without looking at his work on overruns. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:28:58

@nntaleb Today’s tools used by IQ mongers such as the mountebank @charlesmurray (of the bell curve) have the same statistical validity as Le Bon’s cranium theories. And academics swallowed it. Permalink 2020-09-06 12:27:30

@nntaleb In a lectshur presenting AF Permalink 2020-09-06 12:22:42

@nntaleb God created IQ psychologists and economists such as @GarettJones so we can teach classes on their mistakes & teach how to not be fooled by data. #RWRI PS- National IQ is a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:59:16

@nntaleb You must make lemonade out of every lemon. Permalink 2020-09-06 11:44:43

@nntaleb 2ri 3an Wittgenstein’s Private Language Argument katabo Saul Kripke. Permalink 2020-09-05 22:25:29

@nntaleb I want to help! Permalink 2020-09-05 21:57:42

@nntaleb Not with a good risk management system Permalink 2020-09-05 20:32:42

@nntaleb No, the first is the right one. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:29:46

@nntaleb Not quite true: It had to be a synonym in Classical Arabic at the time of Mutanabbi, as shown in his famous poem against the then ruler of Egypt. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:27:48

@nntaleb Farayya. Permalink 2020-09-05 20:23:28

@nntaleb Friends, does Jan 11-22 work for #RWRI 15? Permalink 2020-09-05 19:05:40

@nntaleb Harry has an exemption. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:57:11

@nntaleb Also it was in jest. Paganism does not have a definition. Permalink 2020-09-05 17:43:33

@nntaleb Thanks Bent!!! Permalink 2020-09-05 17:15:34

@nntaleb Not yet Permalink 2020-09-05 16:32:04

@nntaleb South Italy is East Med: same culture same people Permalink 2020-09-05 16:29:34

@nntaleb If you don’t like truth, fuck off. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:20:51

@nntaleb Do you realize that Spanish will soon be banned? Permalink 2020-09-05 16:16:35

@nntaleb I admire his Gadness but he lives in the wrong place. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:15:18

@nntaleb Why I bailed out of U.S. academia. Anyone who is still in it by choice is a moron & those trapped there for lack of other options are total losers. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:14:34

@nntaleb New York bagels are better. Permalink 2020-09-05 16:06:43

@nntaleb Went fast (unless there is a typo) Permalink 2020-09-05 14:53:27

@nntaleb Saturday morning relaxation in memory of @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2020-09-05 14:41:43

@nntaleb 3)#Lebanon #LebanonProtests #Bisridam Permalink 2020-09-05 13:52:30

@nntaleb Bent @BentFlyvbjerg, can you show us a simple graph of cost overruns for dam projects? You will be helping debunk the @Gebran_Bassil “helping the poor” narrative. Ignoring other tail risks… (Bent is THE world’s foremost specialist on megaprojects cost) Permalink 2020-09-05 13:42:21

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-09-05 13:21:45

@nntaleb The World Bank fragilista IYIs do not have a good track record in understanding the cost-benefit tradeoffs of such projects. The Besri Dam represents a yuuuuge irreversible environmental blight w/no tangible benefit, mis-marketed & misrepresented as “helping the poor”. Permalink 2020-09-05 12:23:58

@nntaleb You bet Permalink 2020-09-04 22:37:24

@nntaleb High variance != fat tails. Tails risks are no different from what they were before. Perception is a bit higher . Permalink 2020-09-04 20:40:08

@nntaleb You are a vile, despicable person, @Frances_Coppola. David Graeber’s body is still warm & he is defenseless. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-04 18:38:48

@nntaleb Blocked the idiot. Permalink 2020-09-04 15:18:28

@nntaleb COVID Risk Conversation with @yaneerbaryam. At the end I explain to Yaneer that my background is much nicer; he should add books or, better, hang cooking instruments behind him to make it more jovial. Permalink 2020-09-04 14:35:47

@nntaleb Alternative, if the typo is 1 Permalink 2020-09-04 14:08:10

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-04 13:22:54

@nntaleb The entire point of Antifragile is that we do not make decisions based on probability but a combination that ALWAYS includes payoffs. In that sense proba <<< time expectation [ergodic] So tried to Lindify by reversing the damage done by frauds, usually psychologists (Tetlocks). Permalink 2020-09-04 12:05:18

@nntaleb Morning workout. Please avoid special functions. Permalink 2020-09-04 11:03:37

@nntaleb Not necessary, implied for I not for II Permalink 2020-09-04 10:12:45

@nntaleb Covid Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://youtu.be/d-UKAjeXqPU via @YouTube Permalink 2020-09-04 01:28:09

@nntaleb 8 ½ years after #Antifragile. Not bad. Permalink 2020-09-04 00:12:30

@nntaleb La methode Salafi a cause des deites semites! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:28:51

@nntaleb Tshrin msh October! Permalink 2020-09-03 21:26:18

@nntaleb Fété7? Wéyn? Permalink 2020-09-03 19:57:35

@nntaleb Sleep well! I manage now between 7 ½ and 9 ½ Permalink 2020-09-03 17:57:26

@nntaleb Bataille Royale bil jazal. بس شوي هدّوا يا شباب في بروتوكول ! Permalink 2020-09-03 17:44:07

@nntaleb انا كمان ما بمبسط بهيدا الحرف Permalink 2020-09-03 17:42:15

@nntaleb David Graeber He was a real intellectual; very real: not one fake cell in his brain, not one fake bone in his body. He thought independently. He was monstrouly original. He had intellectual courage. The world seems much much smaller today than before Sep 2. David, RIP Permalink 2020-09-03 17:20:12

@nntaleb 3esh miyyé w sntein! Permalink 2020-09-03 15:45:23

@nntaleb Wrong also about many other things… Permalink 2020-09-03 14:59:16

@nntaleb How much does it sell for? Permalink 2020-09-03 14:58:43

@nntaleb Maybe “promoted” would fix? Permalink 2020-09-03 11:30:04

@nntaleb Hi, maybe some day but too hard to put together. Permalink 2020-09-03 11:23:00

@nntaleb Bear @Prof_BearB is a diplomatic & polite fellow saying what I have been saying in my own way (that is, less politely): that @sapinker is, scientifically speaking, a fraud. Permalink 2020-09-03 10:33:28

@nntaleb The red is… bottarga? Permalink 2020-09-02 21:31:08

@nntaleb Did you @STEPHENPUNWASI intentionally reverse the meaning of the tweets by @ndehouche ? Permalink 2020-09-02 20:43:55

@nntaleb Minute 9 he explains how it was modeled after Law School of Beirut https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b044j7pd @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-09-02 19:56:04

@nntaleb The part Jewish… it was not too differentiated at the time. Anyway I read somewhere that the Talmud was an imitation of the Beirut disputatio method (given that the Jews wanted no Roman law, yet wanted to emulate). Will find source & revert. Permalink 2020-09-02 19:49:00

@nntaleb Harari was created so that psycholophasters like @sapinker seem intelligent. Permalink 2020-09-02 17:13:52

@nntaleb Why Severus Alexander? Permalink 2020-09-02 17:06:06

@nntaleb Actually this picture in Lebanon is close (a winery in the Batroun district). Permalink 2020-09-02 16:47:31

@nntaleb Yes, the preparation requires it! Permalink 2020-09-02 16:38:00

@nntaleb They would use a technology, medical treatment, squid ink recipe, or scientific result conceived by someone considered morally repugnant. But they will “cancel” an actor/politician/mediaperson/ standard academic. Let it sink in that some pple are both superfluous & v. dependent Permalink 2020-09-02 16:00:00

@nntaleb هيدا محتال فنّاص كمّل عليه Permalink 2020-09-02 13:23:47

@nntaleb Squares. Don’t work with infinite kurtosis. Permalink 2020-09-02 12:50:46

@nntaleb Preparation for my trip next week, my own “return to the Med”. https://twitter.com/Return2Med/status/1301112992575008768 Permalink 2020-09-02 12:36:06

@nntaleb How? Permalink 2020-09-01 21:29:54

@nntaleb Isaac Levy, RIP Permalink 2020-09-01 21:02:45

@nntaleb Clearly, @dvoshart is a fraud, beyond his lack of scholarship & technical knowledge. I leave it to Maghrebi people to debunk his representation of their heritage & his exploitation of African people to make a political point. Despicable. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:15:39

@nntaleb Somewhat messy; may have a mistake. Permalink 2020-09-01 19:10:55

@nntaleb A bit messy but here Permalink 2020-09-01 19:09:41

@nntaleb C’est pas le sujet du livre. Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:50

@nntaleb Where was that? Permalink 2020-09-01 16:58:17

@nntaleb Ils ont massacré le titre Permalink 2020-09-01 16:49:03

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-09-01 14:53:44

@nntaleb Imbecile, it means it is vulnerable to the smallest disruption. Permalink 2020-09-01 14:41:55

@nntaleb The pandemic is not “unprecedented”. What is unprecedented is: FRAGILITY + PANDEMIC Our economic system has never been more fragile, more stretched, more vulnerable to small disruptions. @octonion Permalink 2020-09-01 14:37:44

@nntaleb Staged or real? Permalink 2020-09-01 13:50:25

@nntaleb For those of us locked-in because of the rain. Permalink 2020-09-01 13:27:24

@nntaleb Mine were GrecoPhoenicians Permalink 2020-08-31 20:49:21

@nntaleb Some job openings. A Greek-Orthodox Lebanese can’t be 1) president, 2) prime minister, 3) speaker of parliament, 4) governor of the central bank, 5) head of the military. Permalink 2020-08-31 20:00:37

@nntaleb Fat Tony: “Hating Trump and voting for Biden aren’t the same ting” * * Ting means “thing” in dialectal Fat Tonyism. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:52:20

@nntaleb Distinction without a difference. BS. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:45:41

@nntaleb BTW for people listening to this ignorant photoshoot Voshart, this is a period representation. Here my pics from the original at the Met. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:43:16

@nntaleb Voshart, nobody cares about your opinion on matters of scholarship. Maybe about food, photos, etc. But not anything related to scholarships/AI/statistical inference/rigor. I do not care to win an argument against you. Just letting pple know you are a fraud. Enjoy taking photos. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:22:35

@nntaleb Time to revisit (for entertainment) the Nate Silver Ignorance of Probability given that “Kolanovic Says Trump Re-Election Odds Soaring, Prompting Nate Silver To Melt Down On Twitter | Zero Hedge” https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kolanovic-says-trump-re-election-odds-are-soaring-prompting-nate-silver-meltdown-twitter More papers on how to predict elections under uncertainty Permalink 2020-08-31 19:14:59

@nntaleb Often make mistakes in that direction. Permalink 2020-08-31 19:07:55

@nntaleb TRADERS LORE: life is about the increment. When one takes a hit, suffers a personal/collective setback, must not look back. Losers look back. Look ONLY ahead &, when back in the saddle, you’ll get encouraged, even thrilled by the slope/improvement (1st derivative). Stock vs Flow. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:43:56

@nntaleb Warning abt the Roman Emperor pictures. @dvoshart is a photographer; clueless about AI, conditional updating, genetics, etc. In other words, pretty much a fraud. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:30:30

@nntaleb @dvoshart is a fraud. KNows nothing about AI or conditional updating. Permalink 2020-08-31 17:29:07

@nntaleb Yes, but for other reasons than “rights”. Because there are more effective alternatives. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:59:54

@nntaleb (Pseudo)libertarian minds have the intellectual nuances & logical refinement of somewhere betw. the unicellular amoeba & invertebrate sea slugs. And of course no notion of scaling of collective risks/dynamics & iatrogenics. In short: what I usually refer to as “idiots”. Permalink 2020-08-31 16:58:20

@nntaleb Oui mais c’est la réaction après! Permalink 2020-08-31 16:44:45

@nntaleb Any idea how many centimeters? Permalink 2020-08-31 15:04:56

@nntaleb 🙏 for your safety. Permalink 2020-08-31 15:02:29

@nntaleb Il m’a répondu qu’il n’y avait pas de RV. Alors qu’il m’avait envoyé l’adresse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:59:59

@nntaleb Il n’a meme pas annulé. Je me pointe chez lui, on me repond qu’il est au Maroc. Meme pas d’excuse. Permalink 2020-08-31 14:40:01

@nntaleb 8 pages au total. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:39:23

@nntaleb L’article intégral (mais il ne faut pas dire au Point que je partage…) https://fooledbyrandomness.com/LePoint2020.pdf https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1299987146217058305 Permalink 2020-08-31 13:37:32

@nntaleb Elle etait presente. Il m’a posé un lapin une fois a Paris. L’année suivante je le vois a Saint Paul de Vence avec Arielle. Il essaye de me parler, je lui demande de ne pas me deranger. Une année apres les employés de l’hotel en parlent encore. Permalink 2020-08-31 13:01:26

@nntaleb Or the “g” where they talk about “manifold” Permalink 2020-08-31 12:03:14

@nntaleb J’ai eu une histoire avec BHL. Tres amusante. Apres mon café. Permalink 2020-08-31 11:47:44

@nntaleb Great Solution! Permalink 2020-08-30 15:21:20

@nntaleb La photo n’est pas très … Permalink 2020-08-30 10:54:21

@nntaleb The main problem with statistics is statisticians. Permalink 2020-08-29 16:48:51

@nntaleb The ArcSin law (Feller) Permalink 2020-08-29 16:23:44

@nntaleb Morning therapy [ROMANIAN MATHEMATICAL MAGAZINE] Permalink 2020-08-29 11:43:03

@nntaleb BS. Less than 3% but the reverse is true: Arabians with a Levantine origin. Permalink 2020-08-29 11:16:57

@nntaleb American Universities are going to be totally controlled by Robestpierristas (by the minority rule). I mean, totally, as there is no visible countermechanism. Sorry for the innocent funders of their endowments. Permalink 2020-08-29 00:07:43

@nntaleb Wait a week or so. Permalink 2020-08-28 23:55:40

@nntaleb 2) Kamal Salibi was literally a fiction writer (as patently shown in his theory of the origin of Moses). THe Marib dam population is another fiction. Any scholar citing him for anything historical is effectively a fraud. cc:@PZalloua We are debunking that crap with min effort Permalink 2020-08-28 23:54:50

@nntaleb This is TOTAL BS 95% population is local. The Maronites RELIGION came from near Apamea, the POPULATION is local. Sunnis is Lebanon have ~NO Peninsular origin. And the Druze are loca, and, if anything Anatolians. If there is a “foreign origin”, it is Anatolian for ALL >3000 y ago. Permalink 2020-08-28 22:08:12

@nntaleb Are you Erythrean? Permalink 2020-08-28 21:44:29

@nntaleb Twitter conversations can help develop an idea. Permalink 2020-08-28 21:39:28

@nntaleb You forget @normonics and an unnamed person (as yet) in government. Permalink 2020-08-28 14:48:34

@nntaleb Je vais m’y mettre alors. Permalink 2020-08-28 11:08:12

@nntaleb I know Hebrew Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:40

@nntaleb Please explain. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:15:19

@nntaleb The Gulf despises “Shamis” (Levantines) and they consider us pretenders & a highly impure race, so their form of antisemitism is directed towards Levantines. Jews don’t bother them as much. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:14:39

@nntaleb Yes the thing is about lithurgy, not culture. Ezra told me how he wrote in Judeo-Arabic, his father’s script. I could speak to him for 24 hours without noticing. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:10:57

@nntaleb Zilkha. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:05:18

@nntaleb Sephardic is not Mizrahi, as you well know! I remember Ezra Zilha insisting obsessively that he was not Separdic. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:03:54

@nntaleb Yes here it is. Permalink 2020-08-28 00:02:06

@nntaleb That’s not at all what he is saying. To the contrary. Permalink 2020-08-27 22:51:39

@nntaleb Meds not just Mizrahis. Also Alexandrians. They had duty free shops in NY and Paris, no? Permalink 2020-08-27 22:28:52

@nntaleb Almost right. The Farhis were political advisors… Permalink 2020-08-27 21:55:03

@nntaleb Not reliable in a train station with transit Permalink 2020-08-27 21:52:17

@nntaleb 3) The idea of the Brier Score is that you need to be *precise* hence minimize the error rate. Under maximal uncertaity it becomes betting at ½. Same with entropy. This is our response to Silver’s agent: Permalink 2020-08-27 20:07:43

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-27 19:54:10

@nntaleb In other words your forecast reflects the uncertainty built in because it raises low probabilities (below ½) and lower high prob so you converge to ½ under maximal uncertainty. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:41:49

@nntaleb 4th paper abt my problem w/Nate Silver & that idiot @PTetlock over election forecasting. It’s (perhaps) refining my methodology & that of @DhruvMadeka Basically: Predictions must have #skininthegame hence MUST be subjected to arbitrage boundaries. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697688.2020.1757136?journalCode=rquf20 Permalink 2020-08-27 19:39:41

@nntaleb 2/ Google Translate iza bit na22é shubit2ul ma fi ytrjem w l 3alam hon bidi3o shwayy. Baddak tékhedon w tjibon shwayy. Permalink 2020-08-27 19:28:21

@nntaleb Tweet deleted! Permalink 2020-08-27 19:24:50

@nntaleb This is an excellent intuition. Permalink 2020-08-27 18:09:53

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:48:32

@nntaleb You can condition mobility on that. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:32:28

@nntaleb Looks like the END. (If true, & you do not need that good a rate of false negative). Our circle saw the Covid problem when all these “expert” idiots where blind, failed to see the dynamics. Now we see the resolution when they are stuck in the past. Testing was the solution. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:30:33

@nntaleb Nothing racist. Damascus Jews are a distinct cutural group with merchant habits because they were traditionally excluded from the military. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:22:27

@nntaleb The end of the tunnel. So life can resume. (If this is true). And, I am certain, more such tests are on the way. Permalink 2020-08-27 17:05:21

@nntaleb Only 20-30 million people speak Koranic Arabic and none as a native language. Out of 1.5 bil. Permalink 2020-08-27 16:54:38

@nntaleb Look: Islam & Judaism kept the original language. Christianity did until Vatican 2 (or 1). Permalink 2020-08-27 16:37:45

@nntaleb Could be someone from Tyre as an author. They wrote in Greek. Permalink 2020-08-27 15:36:01

@nntaleb شي حمصي عم بردلون ياها Permalink 2020-08-27 15:21:18

@nntaleb Huwwé 7msé Permalink 2020-08-27 15:19:02

@nntaleb @HsenAndil Permalink 2020-08-27 11:29:47

@nntaleb ANCIENT PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: SIDONIANS There is an antology of jokes (Philogelos) compiled in the Hellenistic period. The butt of jokes are Sidonians who represent foolishness (something not attested elsewhere). Some of the jokes are remarkably modern. Permalink 2020-08-27 11:20:07

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-27 02:40:04

@nntaleb I meant a cut of the profits Permalink 2020-08-27 02:28:39

@nntaleb Aleppo was on the silk road. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:15:20

@nntaleb A Syrian joke: Put three persons from Aleppo in the same room; they will create a commodities market. Put three people from Damascus & they will form a political party. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:11:21

@nntaleb I was only employed for 7 ½ years in total, but in 1987 as a trader we had a cut and the job instability of entrepreneurs. Permalink 2020-08-27 02:08:45

@nntaleb “We don’t do Jobs” In 1989, a bunch of young Aleppo Jews arrived in NY, the last to leave Syria. A friend of mine went to greet them & offer help in securing employment: “We don’t do jobs” They started selling shoes in Harlem & the Bronx. 30 y later they all have yuuge mansions. Permalink 2020-08-27 01:30:46

@nntaleb Which joke? Permalink 2020-08-27 00:46:21

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-08-26 23:45:07

@nntaleb The skew decreased for those using Black Scholes. But most traders used their own intuitive pricing in the pits. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:53:51

@nntaleb Not really. There was a skew before for OTM. Permalink 2020-08-26 21:20:15

@nntaleb Hi John (if I may) It is explained much much better here https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Ciao, N Permalink 2020-08-26 20:38:24

@nntaleb En corse? @diankarlu Permalink 2020-08-26 19:27:34

@nntaleb Must be a station for travelers pple out of town Permalink 2020-08-26 18:07:14

@nntaleb Possible but more likely bad birth records Permalink 2020-08-26 17:45:51

@nntaleb Your harmless insult would have more value if you showed your identity (#Skininthegame). As such it is solely an expression of being a loser. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:35:45

@nntaleb Posting the errata for STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. The PDF will update next week. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:32:33

@nntaleb You can disagree without pathologizing him for being Jewish. The Thawra has NOTHING to gain from it. NOTHING. Grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:27:19

@nntaleb It is usually the real losers who play naked cowardly bigotry against a defenseless super-minority (Jewish). If you had any self respect, you would be showing your name. Try to be useful to the Thawra, grow up. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:25:15

@nntaleb In #SkinintheGame I was shocked to see Italians eating at MacDonalds in the Milan train station: it’s abt lowering the variance, trading quality for certainty & reliability. It’s the same reason you hire employees: for their predictability/reliable mediocrity, never for quality. Permalink 2020-08-26 17:02:02

@nntaleb Has ALSO been tested by time. Permalink 2020-08-26 15:03:30

@nntaleb In Principia Politica: https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1298635007540506625 Permalink 2020-08-26 15:01:14

@nntaleb This is BULLSHIT. The term antisemite means targeting Jews specifically. You should be ashamed as it is a huge embarassment for the Thawra. Permalink 2020-08-26 11:53:12

@nntaleb Yes but I like to be free. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:56:48

@nntaleb I was approached for the board. I don’t do boards. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:45:01

@nntaleb Antisemitism is bad for Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-25 22:43:31

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class. Permalink 2020-08-25 21:02:48


@nntaleb Make a list of quacks and put him on it. It’s easy. Permalink 2020-08-25 19:06:18

@nntaleb Another signal. They add up. Wear a mask. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-25/this-starbucks-in-south-korea-became-a-beacon-for-mask-wearing?sref=M5yhqEtt via @business Permalink 2020-08-25 18:01:27

@nntaleb 1 year! Permalink 2020-08-25 17:44:55

@nntaleb Why the fuck does his background have anything to do with anything? This is SHAMEFUL. Delete your tweet. Permalink 2020-08-25 17:40:44

@nntaleb Waiting for the findings by @stan_yurin and the Shill Buster for the amusement. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:57:55

@nntaleb No, still the first. Permalink 2020-08-25 15:23:20

@nntaleb SILENT RISK, Vol 2 of the Technical Incerto Once you get the title right, the book writes itself. Permalink 2020-08-25 14:44:54

@nntaleb Yes otherwise you would have no MDs Permalink 2020-08-25 13:34:35

@nntaleb You are both right. A weak argument becomes a fallacy when used out of context. As with that FrancoOxford idiot & @BallouxFrancois Permalink 2020-08-25 13:11:48

@nntaleb “I am a professorrr at Oxford HENCE I understand RISK Hence I decide who does and doesn’t understand RISK”. Straight character out of #Antifragile, @JBerestycki is like one of those nuns lecturing street prostitutes on sexual positions & how to scam clients. #ExpertProblem #IYI Permalink 2020-08-25 12:16:29

@nntaleb 2/ And of course I do not mandate lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:11:07

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, read Hayek. Permalink 2020-08-25 01:03:15

@nntaleb This is shoddy journalism: the authors insists that Falwell was a Trump supporter. If someone who violates a moral rule loves watching Mickey House, Mickey Mouse now has a partial agency of the moral violation. [Journos violate this rule on both sides, as with Epstein.] Permalink 2020-08-24 22:59:30

@nntaleb Thanks Gary for helping him. Chap 3 is nontechnical Permalink 2020-08-24 21:18:00

@nntaleb There is no “real world risk”. It is risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 21:00:09

@nntaleb Or risk. This fucking idiot Julien Berestycki can make NO statement about risk. Permalink 2020-08-24 20:40:55

@nntaleb Equal weighted and rebalanced? Or rebalanced once? Permalink 2020-08-24 18:44:50

@nntaleb No, può sorgere con me. Mangio sempre trippa e la do agli ospiti. Permalink 2020-08-24 18:43:43

@nntaleb Block. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:56:41

@nntaleb So long as it is comprehensive, no. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:46:29

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-24 17:44:51

@nntaleb Thanks! Can you show us the clusters? Permalink 2020-08-24 17:39:55

@nntaleb A summary of my IQ piece. Permalink 2020-08-24 17:14:53

@nntaleb Download the PDF and print it Permalink 2020-08-24 16:28:54

@nntaleb Explain what you mean. Permalink 2020-08-24 14:10:35

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STAT CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping. https://thescribestore.com/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb… And remember the PDF is Free! https://researchers.one/article/2020-01-21… Permalink 2020-08-24 14:02:14

@nntaleb Baalbeck = Heliopolos, so very credible. Permalink 2020-08-24 13:51:01

@nntaleb Sorry but I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-08-24 12:58:08

@nntaleb This is not a “wall of shame” made by anyone I know. This is a Wall of Fame promoted by the anti-mask-virus-is-a-hoax industry, with a message to support their tweets. Gabish? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:57:38

@nntaleb You are not getting what fat tails mean here. It is the spread in the environment/disruption cascades Permalink 2020-08-24 12:42:14

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean by cannot invoke any credible mechanism? Permalink 2020-08-24 12:37:12

@nntaleb Neither Ioannidis nor Levitt (nor even clueless Balloux) are directly involved but there is a group of active astroturfers for the mask-denying-virus-is-a-hoax agenda. As w/Monsanto, could be traced to PR firm. Suspicion: someone w/investments in airlines/hospitality funding. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1297845933758177283 Permalink 2020-08-24 12:29:40

@nntaleb If your prior is thin tails your posterior becomes fat tails after one single observation Permalink 2020-08-24 11:04:23

@nntaleb I will start a dialogue as follows (frm your site you seem trustworthy) We’re not saying this is worse than anything. Pls read our debate w/Ioannidis(a gntlman). Please comment honestly; I will not be upset if unlike Belloux you point at *precise* flaws. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-24 01:49:16

@nntaleb Mr Househ, I can engage you outside this conversation if you wish. Permalink 2020-08-24 01:22:43

@nntaleb Why didn’t you come to the last day of RWRI? Permalink 2020-08-24 01:19:34

@nntaleb @gabrielpeyre Permalink 2020-08-24 01:17:13

@nntaleb Beware statements like “it does not depend on the law of the entries”. Convergence is super-slow, only works at infinity. I show example in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, but with Fat tails (free PDF). https://twitter.com/gabrielpeyre/status/1297398160214589441 Permalink 2020-08-24 01:13:09

@nntaleb Here is the hall of “experts”: 3-4 down out of 12 (includ. civilized debate w/Ioannidis), but others would be scraping the bottom of the pot. These “experts” are being used for backup by the politicized no-mask-virus-is-a-hoax mob (see from @BallouxFrancois’s feed). Permalink 2020-08-24 00:05:26

@nntaleb My friend, stamp tax in the UK made houses rich owing to CFDs (Contracts for differences). Permalink 2020-08-23 23:31:57

@nntaleb Mni7a Permalink 2020-08-23 21:21:58

@nntaleb Not related. Shammas is from an old pagan practice (Shams) means acolyte for both Christians and Mizrahi Jews Permalink 2020-08-23 21:17:35

@nntaleb When someone declares “I will not devote more time to this”, it is a guarantee he will spend more time on it. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:16:14

@nntaleb I mean garbiyo Permalink 2020-08-23 21:10:30

@nntaleb Plural? Permalink 2020-08-23 21:09:27

@nntaleb Yes, indeed. But I wonder why in Syriac North is Gharbiyo. Permalink 2020-08-23 21:05:10

@nntaleb Yes my interest is in EXONAMES given by the conquerrors as a geographic position w/reference to them. Sham is an exoname (relates to someone south of you). Maghreb is one. Anatolia is one. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:51:25

@nntaleb OK, OK, I made a mistake: there are some Dimashqi, but much much fewer than Shami. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:46:54

@nntaleb I meant in the vernaculars Permalink 2020-08-23 20:41:31

@nntaleb Yes that’s what I was looking for. @QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 20:36:49

@nntaleb No. Mikdash vs Mshkan. Easy for us to get (maskan). Permalink 2020-08-23 20:35:25

@nntaleb Relax, MSM. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:33:17

@nntaleb I was wondering when the name stopped and when it resumed. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:32:02

@nntaleb Was that name given during Nahda? Permalink 2020-08-23 20:07:37

@nntaleb Elia Capitolina. Permalink 2020-08-23 20:06:28

@nntaleb Or the Syriac, I don’t know if ܕܰܪܡܣܘܩܳܝܐ was used before Nahda. @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 20:02:08

@nntaleb After Nahda. cc:@QifaNabki Permalink 2020-08-23 19:51:01

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The name Dimashq دمشق was almost never used in Ar. for 1200 y before Orientalists, but exoname “AlSham” الشام (“the North”). For Ottomans “Şam Sancağı” Hint: There are family names “Shami”, no “Dimashqi”. Same for Jerusalem: اورشليم was القدس.(=>Qudsi) Permalink 2020-08-23 19:48:10

@nntaleb Was in 2018 Permalink 2020-08-23 17:27:13

@nntaleb Lessons from the errors of @BallouxFrancois 1- RISKS: for 1 indiv. is the real of medicine/biology. Risk for a collective is statistical modeling. For >10^6, Extreme Value Theory. 2- ACTION: For indiv it is abt health. For collective, it is all about connectivity. Permalink 2020-08-23 17:07:28

@nntaleb That was March 11 Permalink 2020-08-23 16:22:39

@nntaleb In Berytus restaurants, Mazaher Permalink 2020-08-23 16:15:38

@nntaleb Yes he does not know how to calculate risk. Not at all. He conflates individual and aggregate. I saw numerous errors before yesterday. Totally clueless. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:59:36

@nntaleb “Please stop; please stop!”… “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t yet know what he is getting into. This is just the prologue. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:38:23

@nntaleb 4/ Please be careful about the “Sweden argument”. Permalink 2020-08-23 15:18:37

@nntaleb 3/ FALSE DICHOTOMIES: Economy vs virus. Most bus failures come from risk aversion. Nonlinearity: hosp capacity gets overhelmed. We are progressively learning abt the disease: BUY TIME, w/treatments improving, perhaps vaccine. Most effective: masks+superspreaders for now Permalink 2020-08-23 14:48:56

@nntaleb 2 Permalink 2020-08-23 14:40:08

@nntaleb Balloux has NO idea how to calculate risk, but not my point here: he give fodder to a crowd of crackpots. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:28:50

@nntaleb 2/MYTHS BY CRANKS a- “Masks are not effective” (using “sounds scientific” biology argument) b- Measures carry economic costs: no, it’s the VIRUS that’s costly [See debate w/Ioannidis]. c- “Death numbers are low” w/o realizing it is BECAUSE of measures. Permalink 2020-08-23 14:25:43

@nntaleb Friends, there is a mob of “COVID is not serious” (even hoax) politicized attack dogs w/no notion of science nor interest in it who tag to the very few play-the-system risk-clueless academics like @BallouxFrancois carrying THE msg that fits them. Any other compromised academic? Permalink 2020-08-23 14:03:59

@nntaleb Marsa= port en Phenicien Permalink 2020-08-23 13:40:57

@nntaleb Try Amioun outdoor cafés. I work there all the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:14:42

@nntaleb I fail to understand why all your cartoons make me morose and serious when I joke 99.999999% of the time. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:12:13

@nntaleb @Marcellenassif Permalink 2020-08-23 13:09:59

@nntaleb L’accento siciliano è vicino all’arabo: p diventa b, o diventa u, c diventa g-q Permalink 2020-08-23 13:04:44

@nntaleb Cavendish, Wolfram. You need independence. Permalink 2020-08-23 13:01:29

@nntaleb Barli sicilianu? Permalink 2020-08-23 12:57:35

@nntaleb 10 – 12 episodi, per imparare il siciliano Permalink 2020-08-23 12:55:57

@nntaleb No. Permalink 2020-08-23 12:48:33

@nntaleb Il commissario Montalbano beve il caffè del mattino Permalink 2020-08-23 12:47:43

@nntaleb Now a ref for the genre (don’t quite agree w/Raoult rather w/his style) Raoult: “He is a kind of Nassim Taleb of infectious disease. He is brilliant, doesn’t feign false humility, & claims rather persuasively that he’s indifferent to many of his critics.” Permalink 2020-08-23 12:29:52

@nntaleb Same. It is never fun unless it is all together. Noticed t you were also MD. We had 2 of them. Permalink 2020-08-23 11:56:15

@nntaleb No but same thing for prof Permalink 2020-08-23 01:30:20

@nntaleb Very illustrative of power laws: at #RWRI we observed an 80/20 rule: we were ~ 100 & 20 people contributed to >80% of the discussions. Permalink 2020-08-23 00:12:23

@nntaleb Why? Permalink 2020-08-22 22:14:51

@nntaleb That “wouldn’t happen” Permalink 2020-08-22 21:04:47

@nntaleb Balloux, if there was a flaw in the paper Mr Curtis would have made a PRECISE point, as I did with you, not some vague comment about the presentation. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:58:47

@nntaleb Dave Curtis, imbecile, 1- Stat/math journals do not have impact factors comparable to medicine (there are 100 times more bullshitting doctors like you than statisticians). IJF is among the top. 2- Explain why I should care about what epidemiologists think? Permalink 2020-08-22 19:42:52

@nntaleb So why the fuck are you imparting statements I did not make? And opinions I DO NOT HAVE? OF COURSE known situation warrants a lower level of precaution (less uncertainty) and more targeted mitigation, no lockdowns. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:17:12

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not about precaution but this idiot Francois ignorant about basic risk comparisons. Permalink 2020-08-22 19:12:08

@nntaleb 2) Many misunderstood. If I block you it does not mean I am upset, only that I don’t like noise on my TL. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:37:37

@nntaleb This it turned out is part of a bunch of shills from the Monsanto days against our GMO paper. Permalink 2020-08-22 16:36:43

@nntaleb You don’t know Wittgenstein’s ruler. Can’t read as I’ve blocked that troll. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:57:28

@nntaleb Needless to say my solution is the least elegant here! Permalink 2020-08-22 14:40:17

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-22 14:35:57

@nntaleb Post #RWRI relaxation. Permalink 2020-08-22 14:05:52

@nntaleb He is not blocked. You’re the idiot. Ha. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:34:49

@nntaleb To figure out if someone is an idiot, call him an idiot and check if he gets upset. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:25:56

@nntaleb The take home is everything is convex from 0 up to a point. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:14:23

@nntaleb Risk is not his job, obviously. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:02:56

@nntaleb May get concave somewhere, not here & depends how you scale. Log[yield]= \alpha Log[size] so yield =size^\alpha here >1 hence convex at least within range, up till the Taylor limit. Permalink 2020-08-22 13:01:25

@nntaleb سلامتك! Permalink 2020-08-22 01:51:36

@nntaleb Impressive! Permalink 2020-08-22 00:56:18

@nntaleb Compare to last year’s numbers… Permalink 2020-08-21 23:19:22

@nntaleb Your interlocutor was blocked for trolling. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:18:24

@nntaleb 5) And I DO NOT advocate lockdowns (except “in extremis”), rather controlling superspreaders, hyperactive testing, border control & forcing face masks. Permalink 2020-08-21 23:08:49

@nntaleb I see Boldrin on my thread whom I blocked for charlatanism. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:59:20

@nntaleb 4) When I call pple idiots, they have earned it, BSF (“BS-Frankie @BallouxFrancois). For every location, relative changes in Covid fatalities proved > 100 time higher than relative Δ road deaths. Permalink 2020-08-21 22:44:15

@nntaleb 3) Even without fat tails “BS-Frankie” @BallouxFrancois is failing elemtary statistics (Sat 101): comparing 2 variables with different variances (one very low, other very very high). Permalink 2020-08-21 22:06:26

@nntaleb 2) The other thing this marshmallowbrained “Prof” @BallouxFrancois doesn’t get is that the #of people who died from COVID accounts for mitigation & risk control measures. It’s like saying: we don’t need security checks since planes aren’t crashing. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-21 21:53:20

@nntaleb It is remarkable that you have idiots like this “Prof” @BallouxFrancois who conflate additive risks with multiplicative ones (fat tailed), a mistake your grandmother wouldn’t make. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:27:23

@nntaleb Education w/low tolerance for boring things. Permalink 2020-08-21 21:25:31

@nntaleb Yes < 1/4 could be an inequality. Being conservative with a square law. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:58:06

@nntaleb BEIRUT EXPLOSION at #RWRI: all abt CONCENTRATION & CONVEXITY It has nothing to do with politics, nothing to do with anything except concentration/scaling & 1/n rule of harm: If the Chernobyl plant was ½ the size, damage would be ~1/4. See #Antifragile #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-21 20:51:32

@nntaleb I keep repeating in the INCERTO: take stressors in the middle, be paranoid in the TAILS. Permalink 2020-08-21 20:46:11

@nntaleb 3 times distilled. Permalink 2020-08-21 19:24:26

@nntaleb It is actually finite mean because boundedness. But remote. ANd LLN is slow. Permalink 2020-08-21 14:41:24

@nntaleb If data can be explained by BOTH fat tails & thin tails, then it must be fat tailed. This is the Masquerade Problem: there is a hierarchy of distributions. Note: Every Power law can be explained ex post by a sum of Poissons. But a Poisson cannot be explained by a PL. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-21 14:21:39

@nntaleb Non car si on leve 400 livres la pression arterielle va a 30/15 donc on est SUR qu’il n’y pas de rupture possible. Comme un test de stress. Permalink 2020-08-21 12:44:18

@nntaleb Where is Musar? Permalink 2020-08-21 00:09:22

@nntaleb Wine. We want to see. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:58:49

@nntaleb 135… but watch out! the weights are loose. Permalink 2020-08-20 22:57:15

@nntaleb To sleep well: hedge all your tail exposures. #RWRI + hide nothing from your enemies + pay all your taxes, show the IRS all your income mother of all tail risks) + be uncancellable + back up all your data + have some gold (and/or BTC) but not too much … Permalink 2020-08-20 20:56:09

@nntaleb How high ? Permalink 2020-08-20 20:39:58

@nntaleb Indeed. Most asymptomatic people have “something wrong” in their MRI. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:32:51

@nntaleb It means that one may have centrist opinions on balance, but not be systematically in the center for EVERY issue. Permalink 2020-08-20 16:08:13

@nntaleb I fixed my own by lifting weight progressively Permalink 2020-08-20 14:45:08

@nntaleb Can you go bullshit elsewhere, please? Permalink 2020-08-20 11:09:55

@nntaleb You sleep better when you have tail risk hedges. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-20 11:01:17

@nntaleb and to thank @rperezmarco and @joe_shipman ! Permalink 2020-08-20 02:00:22

@nntaleb Forgot to thank you. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:59:34

@nntaleb I also run mine with water. Cleans the filter. Permalink 2020-08-20 01:43:04

Manhattan, Ioannidis, NUCLEAR, Sunstein, FRAUD!!!!!, Thaler, Omar Sharif, Tetlock, Pinker, IQ, Playboy, BOOK PUBLISHING, Hagia Sophia | Twitter

Published on Jul 27, 2020
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
For transcript and links related to today’s episode: https://www.econtalk.org/nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-the-pandemic/

The Masks Masquerade

Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility

Face Masks May be Necessary and Sufficient to Stop Covid-19
An entrepreneur’s perspective on Nassim Taleb’s conclusions about face masks

Podcast Notes: The Pandemic, Power of Masks, Levels of Risk and More | Nassim Nicholas Taleb on EconTalk

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)
Published on Feb 18, 2020
We explain the Kelly criterion and illustrate why “risk aversion” in Behavioral Finance is Micky Mouse(™) Science.

TLDR: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic A summary of the July 27, 2020 episode of EconTalk.

On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables (pdf)

@nntaleb Fireworks or ammunitions from the initial sparks. Stop the conspiracy theories, for Baal’s sake. No plane. Permalink 2020-08-04 16:38:01

@nntaleb Manhattan is dead & unflaneurable. Astoria Queens is more flaneurable: less pretentious & has much better Greek food, 30% blue collar customers instead of constipated book executives & philistines who read Harari. Even flaneuring can adapt well. Permalink 2020-08-04 14:33:56

@nntaleb Nikos Phililogos Permalink 2020-08-04 14:21:32

@nntaleb Scribe Permalink 2020-08-04 14:20:21

@nntaleb “Arabic”? WTF? Permalink 2020-08-04 14:19:29

@nntaleb Nobody noticed it is the Saint Petersburgh problem? Power law, if uncapped, with infinite mean. There is a Feller theorem about time to cross the origin following a Cauchy Permalink 2020-08-04 13:56:33

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 2020-08-04 13:29:12

@nntaleb You can easily copy one line, no? Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:53

@nntaleb Typo: m=250/2 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:37

@nntaleb And if you cheat (“verify”) by using Monte Carlo you get the same. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:25:29

@nntaleb My solution: 8.3 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:23:16

@nntaleb Not “Greek” olive oil. Lebanese olive oil from the Koura valley, so only ½ Greek. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:03:21

@nntaleb Not quite, my friend. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:27:22

@nntaleb Ok, Ok, Quiz What is the expected longest run generated by a random 250 coin tosses. A run is defined as n heads or n tails. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:24:14

@nntaleb Actually, no. People mistake length of runs for average of runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:25:44

@nntaleb Thanks Zhuo. Visibly your hand one does not have long runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:03:08

@nntaleb Using a Markov chain to estimate the expected number of runs. The number of runs of 7 must bet ~2 Permalink 2020-08-03 18:59:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you go give advice to someone else? Permalink 2020-08-03 14:17:33

@nntaleb III A wise decision is one that is sound both prospectively and retrospectively, in both foresight and hindsight. Our best definition of #Precaution Permalink 2020-08-03 13:52:37

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-03 13:32:00

@nntaleb Our debate with Ioannidis,II Plus why “forecasting” and “evidence based” are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb HOW TO HANDLE A PANDEMIC Our debate with John Ioannidis. Plus why naive single point “forecasting” and “evidence based” methods are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb You should detect by eyeballing. Permalink 2020-08-03 10:20:31

@nntaleb פה بالعبراني Permalink 2020-08-03 02:30:13

@nntaleb How many hours for $300? Permalink 2020-08-02 23:59:43

@nntaleb This is not quite a PL. Zifplots are insufficient. You need EVT to prove it. Would love to replicate. Permalink 2020-08-02 20:58:51

@nntaleb BM did not like this http://www.chialvo.net/Curso/UBACurso/DIA3/Papers/SOC1.pdf Permalink 2020-08-02 20:53:38

@nntaleb The sandpile story is controversial & supposedly Bak did not have a proof… Permalink 2020-08-02 19:57:42

@nntaleb Blocked the imbecile. He is just a photographer. Permalink 2020-08-02 19:13:37

@nntaleb I have an inside story of Mandelbrot on Per Bak Permalink 2020-08-02 18:44:27

@nntaleb SYSTEMIC RISK: non-diversifiable. You can in principle break-up into n reactors to get the needed risk diversification/prevent Chernobyl from being too large. Permalink 2020-08-02 18:13:10

@nntaleb Systemic = 1 block. Nuclear is in a diff category (non subexponential) Permalink 2020-08-02 16:57:52

@nntaleb In Principia Politica, there is a rule: No institution without an expiration date. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:45:37

@nntaleb Voshart you imbecile this is how you get coloring, by comparison. An confirmed by genetics: Lybians looked no different from other Mediterraneans. You are an imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:42:59

@nntaleb He seems clueless about genetics. He is just a photographer using cultural notions. Many fail to get that Southern Mediterraneans are Western Eurasians (the Europe/Africa distinction is not accurate). Permalink 2020-08-02 15:39:28

@nntaleb Voshart, are you a geneticist? Permalink 2020-08-02 15:38:04

@nntaleb Went away recently Permalink 2020-08-02 13:36:59

@nntaleb Aspetta mi, vengo subito prima che la lasagna si raffreddi Permalink 2020-08-02 13:32:06

@nntaleb I will make it very simple for you: I am picking what method I like not the one you like and you can go fuck off. Simple enough? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:28:29

@nntaleb Dove? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:20:27

@nntaleb I am not saying NUCLEAR is not dangerous. It is in a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:35

@nntaleb I am not saying it is not dangerous. Just a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:05

@nntaleb NUCLEAR I NEVER said that nuclear energy was safe. I said that it does not fall under the Precautionary Principle as there is ~no systemic risk. Nuclear accidents are additive not multiplicative (unlike GMOs & viruses). The risk (for small reactors) remains local not systemic. Permalink 2020-08-02 11:27:10

@nntaleb Then why education? Now shd I get pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:40:26

@nntaleb Hi there Where did you get it from? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:28:24

@nntaleb Learning to cook from fresh dough. Mystery: Why did Sicily discontinue growing sumac? Permalink 2020-08-01 21:09:43

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff and find yourself a hobby with “utility” before you lecture us? Permalink 2020-08-01 20:28:39

@nntaleb My shoulder bans me from deadlifting… Permalink 2020-08-01 19:16:26

@nntaleb Thanks! What’s best of the 4 options? Pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:15:56

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-01 19:12:46

@nntaleb Can you do these rooms in business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:04:54

@nntaleb Charlie can students spontaneously create rooms? Permalink 2020-08-01 14:15:45

@nntaleb Mistake. This is NOT the inquisition. There were trials and sentences were delivered by a (lay) court. This is more like the period of terror during the French Revolution. Soon education will be ONLY delivered by special apolitical institutions like coding camps. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:51:02

@nntaleb We don’t care about costs. We need to be able to create breakout rooms. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:29:14

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-08-01 11:22:23

@nntaleb 80-100 Permalink 2020-08-01 11:20:05

@nntaleb I blame the NYT first. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:19:00

@nntaleb Please do not involve geopolitics, China-US or some conspiracy in a software discussion. The question is precise Zoom for Business of for Education. Do not compare to other methods. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:15:39

@nntaleb This is the Inquisition Permalink 2020-08-01 11:10:51

@nntaleb But a university affiliation is becoming a liability. All downside, no upside. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:08:22

@nntaleb Friends, for #RWRI 14, do you prefer Zoom for Business or Zoom for Education? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-01 10:45:33

@nntaleb No comment for now. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:28:39

@nntaleb That’s another matter. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:24:45

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-01 02:18:08

@nntaleb Without verification… Anyone getting anywhere close to a US university is a moron. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:14:31

@nntaleb Ovadiah Permalink 2020-07-31 18:21:00

@nntaleb Hi Scott You are missing the CENTRAL point: 1) is fragile what does not like volatility everything concave is fragile And reverse: antifragile = convex between a and b. Permalink 2020-07-31 15:42:14

@nntaleb 5) METASTATIC BUREAUCRACIES If you want an illustration, here is one. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:55:15

@nntaleb 4) CREDENTIALIZATION And note how Tedros mentions Harvard to credentialize Sunstein, which wipes out his defects and ignorance of probability. https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1288951939334574080?s=20 Repeat after me: Delenda WHO est. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:11:30

@nntaleb Nassim, he is a professor in a business school. Intellectual fraud is for them business as usual. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:01:04

@nntaleb 3) The Collection of bureaucrats *who meet* for a living and failed to get the risks of the pandemic early on when WE warned, costs us TRILLIONS. Now what do they do? They ADD more bureaucrats like that fraud Sunstein. Institutions learn via bankruptcy. WHO must be DEFUNDED. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:49:22

@nntaleb 2) Do not forget that @CassSunstein made it irrational to worry about the risks of the pandemic in February! WHO must be closed. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:17:56

@nntaleb FRAUD!!!!! If there is a reason to shut down the WHO, here it is. Cass Sunstein is the poster child of pseudo-empiricism. He failed to get pandemics early on and missed on the difference between additive & multiplicative risks. FRAUD! Permalink 2020-07-31 13:15:18

@nntaleb No to the Bisri Dam project. It is economically a scam, and environmentally a DISASTER. Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-07-31 12:52:38

@nntaleb You can return it to them and order here Permalink 2020-07-31 12:01:14

@nntaleb Can you return it and reorder from this? Permalink 2020-07-31 12:00:50

@nntaleb Where did you get yours? Permalink 2020-07-31 11:59:22

@nntaleb Here Permalink 2020-07-31 11:50:54

@nntaleb Yes, I was wondering. My SP02 is 98 when active, 94 when inactive and I thought there was a problem but realized there was none as the problem is the other way around. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:32:05

@nntaleb Hi, Who did you buy it from? We stopped the Book Depository. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:29:02

@nntaleb Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-07-31 11:23:40

@nntaleb Levantine ethics… Permalink 2020-07-30 23:01:08

@nntaleb Fucking moron what does my argument have anything to do with how conservatives behave? Permalink 2020-07-30 21:47:26

@nntaleb On citation rings Permalink 2020-07-30 21:31:44

@nntaleb Yes, I am a staunch advocate of masks (even when it was unpopular). But anyone gloating on the web about the death of Herman Cain is: + shabby + unprincipled + sordid + despicable De mortuis nihil nisi bonum Permalink 2020-07-30 19:53:21

@nntaleb Time to make this a nontechnical chapter in the new book, Vol2 of the Technical Incerto. How you will go bust on a favorable bet. Or why among other things @R_Thaler is a fraud. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp) Permalink 2020-07-30 19:39:10

@nntaleb Interesting warning signs of Alzheimer: He stopped playing bridge ~15 years before he was diagnosed with Alzheimer. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:56:58

@nntaleb The point is that I show in my book evidence that economics is just a citation ring. “Prestige” is just a scam. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:37:23

@nntaleb The idea is: Get data. Derive kernel distribution at bandwidth 1 Get MI[1] Derive kernel dist at finer bandwidth Get M[2] You see convergence as gains are smaller and smaller except for \infty Permalink 2020-07-30 17:15:11

@nntaleb No, there is small effect, so long as you do not use points but distributions. You need perfect relationship = infinity. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:07:05

@nntaleb The difference between continuous (differential) entropy and discrete does not extend to MI. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:49:54

@nntaleb This is an imbecilic interpretation. Sorry I block for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:45:38

@nntaleb Something everybody knows Permalink 2020-07-30 16:10:49

@nntaleb The idea is “is it more useful than temperature”? Permalink 2020-07-30 15:53:22

@nntaleb You’ll never grasp voting patterns & political positions of millennials unless you recognize that a new graduate in about anything theoretical (Bachelor, Master even PhD) earns less than a slightly trained plumber, truck driver, or a carpenter. Reflect & see why Univ. going bust. Permalink 2020-07-30 14:00:49

@nntaleb Many other approaches. Thanks, friends. Permalink 2020-07-30 13:44:54

@nntaleb True Permalink 2020-07-30 12:38:16

@nntaleb He was Levantine. Greek Orthodox. Permalink 2020-07-30 12:18:27

@nntaleb One approach Permalink 2020-07-30 12:09:57

@nntaleb This plus coffee helps you to wake up. [Reminder: non-math related cute comment = block] Permalink 2020-07-30 11:53:13

@nntaleb Genetics show the mummies were Levantine Permalink 2020-07-30 11:04:26

@nntaleb Can detect disease not health Permalink 2020-07-30 10:32:51

@nntaleb FACT DU JOUR Omar Sharif (born Michel Dimitri Shalhoub), an actor with brains: + Elite bridge player + Fluent >5 languages + OK in Greek (like many Alexandrians) + Degree in mathematics + Did not socialize w/actors (except. romance w/actresses) Permalink 2020-07-30 10:31:30

@nntaleb So far I haven’t called anyone a fraud who didn’t turn out to be a fraud. Permalink 2020-07-30 10:10:53

@nntaleb Many people, including some doctors, don’t seem to get what a filter means. https://twitter.com/aashiq/status/1288643170058764289?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-30 02:13:35

@nntaleb Did anyone think SPO2 as instant (5 seconds) filter for Covid-19? Isn’t there more signal than with temperature? Permalink 2020-07-30 00:46:39

@nntaleb The debate with John Ioannidis On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables, with @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Latest version Permalink 2020-07-29 22:08:33

@nntaleb I revise the book every time you read it. Permalink 2020-07-29 21:42:57

@nntaleb ? no idea. Permalink 2020-07-29 20:22:39

@nntaleb Was looking for your address to mail you the book. Permalink 2020-07-29 18:52:20

@nntaleb Pour commence, Argth la Arg tangente hyperbolic, la reciproque de la tanh n’est pas ½ Log… Permalink 2020-07-29 15:22:01

@nntaleb Cet apres-midi. Permalink 2020-07-29 15:12:09

@nntaleb ECONTALK with @EconTalker https://youtu.be/CyOsUbK8PiE via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-29 15:08:19

@nntaleb Imbecilic remark. What does democracy have to do with your own house? Democracy is about voter participation not letting people troll your private feed. Permalink 2020-07-29 14:22:04

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ndehouche/status/1288347895993753600 Permalink 2020-07-29 12:59:52

@nntaleb You need to de-discretize your calcs. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:49:24

@nntaleb More “complicated” in statistical domains. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:29:01

@nntaleb And >2 m people visiting and commuting daily Permalink 2020-07-29 12:06:21

@nntaleb For every person you block, you get 10 new followers. Why? Because the quality of your thread improves markedly; comments are worth reading. Protect your thread. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:43:45

@nntaleb In cities, indeed. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:34:38

@nntaleb Διόρθωση: Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο της *ελληνικής γλώσσας* στο Zoom (Current level: Koiné) Σας ευχαριστώ όλους Permalink 2020-07-29 00:13:37

@nntaleb DM please. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-29 00:04:54

@nntaleb Could be 2 separate problems. The old must not pass on charges… Permalink 2020-07-28 22:28:42

@nntaleb Great Summary Permalink 2020-07-28 22:04:09

@nntaleb For a citation, I had to get a copy of @PTetlock’s (🐁”Phil the rat”) *Superforecasting* & it is worse than I thought, from his work. [Co-author is a shill/lobbyist paid by large corporations to play down their “risk”] It has major, major mistakes & flaws. What to do? Permalink 2020-07-28 21:21:25

@nntaleb I peer review ALL my work one way or another. Permalink 2020-07-28 21:11:34

@nntaleb Additive & multiplicative Risks should never be compared to one another. Multiplicative => fat tails. We have limited the precautionary principle ONLY to multiplicative risks: + Pandemics (only 72 in history) + Genetic modifications spread in nature Permalink 2020-07-28 21:09:00

@nntaleb The way it works: readers read what a reliable friend recommends, etc. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:32:49

@nntaleb Hi there Can you return it back to them? Further instructions to follow. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:16:34

@nntaleb My experience since “Skin in The Game” is to leave it to social media: genuine readers commenting for potential genuine readers. No more critics who filter & decide what *lesser* readers should like or avoid. My books are not sent to the media & “intellectuals”. F*** them. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:58:41

@nntaleb Mush me2lé! Mshwé! W iza me2lé bzeit zeitun msh mazolla (bi fakkru atyab bil mazolla) Permalink 2020-07-28 19:45:06

@nntaleb I block for sophistry. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:25:42

@nntaleb Shipping next week. But if in a rush, cancel and get this immediately. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:02:52

@nntaleb Plugged out (injury) so just low weights. Permalink 2020-07-28 18:41:18

@nntaleb On it Permalink 2020-07-28 18:36:36

@nntaleb Once in a while, the reverse helps. Permalink 2020-07-28 17:47:14

@nntaleb How strong are both of you now? Permalink 2020-07-28 16:45:36

@nntaleb I tried 5 sets of 10, doing math btw sets. Permalink 2020-07-28 16:21:56

@nntaleb Takes a week to know the benefits Permalink 2020-07-28 15:34:21

@nntaleb Separate day Permalink 2020-07-28 15:33:12

@nntaleb Also 5 sets of 10 presses Permalink 2020-07-28 15:28:43

@nntaleb Did you try the 5 sets of 10 deadlifts? Permalink 2020-07-28 15:24:31

@nntaleb Necessary Permalink 2020-07-28 14:21:16

@nntaleb My problem with him. Permalink 2020-07-28 12:18:41

@nntaleb This was promoted in my feed. These ideas that are supposed to help your life destroy it. If a book can be summarized it’s not a book; if you get something in 15 minutes it is not worth getting. Permalink 2020-07-28 11:54:26

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Where? Permalink 2020-07-28 11:44:27

@nntaleb of ours Permalink 2020-07-28 03:02:05

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Not at all. The argument is about convexity. Permalink 2020-07-28 02:00:55

@nntaleb Haha Campaign started in March. Permalink 2020-07-28 01:46:08

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, being “right” means agreeing with you? Permalink 2020-07-27 23:49:26

@nntaleb You are clueless. Permalink 2020-07-27 23:41:43

@nntaleb Attitude? What “attitude”? Permalink 2020-07-27 20:39:36

@nntaleb Will restock up next week or but meanwhile try @zachobront’s link. Permalink 2020-07-27 20:26:38

@nntaleb OK, émtin? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:59:54

@nntaleb Leish ma bte3zemné ana? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:54:55

@nntaleb A reminder from PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-27 19:09:08

@nntaleb Your statement is MORONIC. As you get more information & granularity you target your measures tfor costs and efficacy Permalink 2020-07-27 18:37:52

@nntaleb I wonder why the cancel culture does not go after the chain of retractions instead of innocent idiots like @sapinker Permalink 2020-07-27 18:08:09

@nntaleb “National IQ” is practically an academic fraud. But the fact it went for so long is quite shocking. Permalink 2020-07-27 18:01:20

@nntaleb @ndehouche Permalink 2020-07-27 17:53:16

@nntaleb Squares Permalink 2020-07-27 17:21:25

@nntaleb Reread our paper. Explained there. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:58:28

@nntaleb We have answered that with our degree of fattailedness of certain class of events >>> all others, hence it is not frivilous and generalized worry. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:52:25

@nntaleb I block idiot. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:41:29

@nntaleb NOTHING to do with Regime switching. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:20:21

@nntaleb Was it Amazon or Scribe? Permalink 2020-07-27 14:19:20

@nntaleb I blocked him. I block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-27 13:09:58

@nntaleb It is not the same problem and this is not a highshool problem. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:43:40

@nntaleb Assuming it is an error… Thanks! will investigate. I am always worried when no errors are revealed. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:21:01

@nntaleb The distribution is Uniform below 1. Very very strange. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:16:28

@nntaleb The distribution is uniform below 1 ! Permalink 2020-07-27 12:15:37

@nntaleb Great counterintuitive result in probability. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:10:50

@nntaleb The article is for scientists not for politically driven imbeciles like you. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:13:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-27 02:06:15

@nntaleb Cancel and use our link. Ships immediately. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:04:47

@nntaleb And it feels different: you pull from the nape of the neck Permalink 2020-07-27 02:01:04

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-27 01:59:20

@nntaleb É. Koyné ba3ref shwayy. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:19:36

@nntaleb Here it is more, as it is 90% of the 10 max Permalink 2020-07-27 01:18:04

@nntaleb Grazie. Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:11:40

@nntaleb Also, for variery, tried 10 reps deadlift, 5 times today, and the same with presses yesterday. Feels great, like a sprint. Watched elevated hearbeat and saw it crash. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:08:19

@nntaleb That’s the work equivalent of intermittent fasting. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:05:18

@nntaleb No comparison. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:03:45

@nntaleb Much simpler to cut calories. I reach ketosis eating pasta when I do OMAD. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:02:34

@nntaleb Haven’t practiced in 40 years! Permalink 2020-07-26 21:53:21

@nntaleb Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:51:44

@nntaleb Babbler, not speaker. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:49:50

@nntaleb Αγαπητοί φίλοι και φίλες, Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο στο Zoom Permalink 2020-07-26 21:45:10

@nntaleb Link? Permalink 2020-07-26 21:19:54

@nntaleb He never understood convexity. But cities are Lindy by virtue of location. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:17:40

@nntaleb Traders Permalink 2020-07-26 21:15:09

@nntaleb Cities when not monstrously large. Size is bad. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:49:29

@nntaleb In French, same thing. “Valeurs propres”. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:44:20

@nntaleb CITIES ARE FRAGILE Flaneured around NYC for a day. I spent 2/3 of my life in the area. Saaaaaaaad. Idiots claiming cities “more efficient” don’t realize the concavity/fragility to shocks. See #Antifragile: Rome went from 2.2M to few 100K & took >1500 years to come back. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:06:55

@nntaleb The conductor of the USJ (Jesuit Univ.) chorus in Beirut is a Lebanese woman (I assume Muslim from her name). https://twitter.com/USJLiban/status/1287462673551175680 Permalink 2020-07-26 19:30:44

@nntaleb The rarest (and most valuable) thing on this planet: a clear mind. Permalink 2020-07-26 16:59:15

@nntaleb After a lull, research is undergoing a back-migration to the land of grape leaves, thyme, and olive oil: the Republics of the Eastern Mediterranean. Thanks @polemitis for these ambitious projects; more to come. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:28:03

@nntaleb False negatives are a function of contageousness. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:18:39

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-26 14:03:50

@nntaleb Another misunderstood convexity: frequent testing beats precision. A solution is STARING at us. “Evidence based” idiots can’t easily get it because, as with MASKS, they can’t understand cheap alternatives. Permalink 2020-07-26 12:01:04

@nntaleb Cristo in Italiano e Francese (Montecristo, Monte Cristo) Permalink 2020-07-26 10:37:25

@nntaleb Fi PDF? Permalink 2020-07-25 20:31:05

@nntaleb My friend, not the squid ink sauce. Colored pasta. Permalink 2020-07-25 19:03:46

@nntaleb COVID: A central ethical point: intergenerational liability. Like many central points, goes to the footnote. Permalink 2020-07-25 15:38:11

@nntaleb I avoided mentioning Shiism because it is not clear to me. But for Alawis, it is. Permalink 2020-07-25 14:54:30

@nntaleb Imbecile White != Nordic Permalink 2020-07-25 14:41:41

@nntaleb A gracious and very scientific debate with Ioannidis et al., @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo We add: 1- How individual risks do not map to collective risks. 2- The False Dichotomy economy/disease mitigation. For comments (submitting today) Permalink 2020-07-25 12:14:08

@nntaleb 2) Some religions allow “Taqiyya”, i.e. concealing one’s creed or modifying it to the outside: Gnostic religions, Alevis, Alawis, Druze. Never Sunni Islam or Greek Orthodoxy. Religious history becomes muddled. Early East-Med Christians would rather die than deny their religion. Permalink 2020-07-25 11:44:32

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-07-25 11:38:36

@nntaleb No. DNA has not changed. Permalink 2020-07-25 10:59:20

@nntaleb Was invited to debate him. Permalink 2020-07-25 01:07:30

@nntaleb Taqiyya! Permalink 2020-07-24 22:53:31

@nntaleb The Marranos were nonChristians who upon the inquisition faked Christianity to aboid persecution. Academic Marranos fake it to avoid being cancelled. Some SJW Marranos will secretly vote Trump. Permalink 2020-07-24 22:47:10

@nntaleb Wrong, it is linear Permalink 2020-07-24 21:47:28

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 20:10:08

@nntaleb Yes, it looks much more elegant in CDF Permalink 2020-07-24 19:37:00

@nntaleb We are debating Ioannidis, thanks to @pierrepinson and @spyrosmakrid Our final answer to him was just completed, to post soon. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:34:53

@nntaleb Not the same thing. I was looking for the density, not the CDF. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:29:14

@nntaleb They should cut the “arabic”, to TUnision, Algerian, etc. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:26:28

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-07-24 17:19:59

@nntaleb Yes, sums of Beta distributed B[1/n,1], with a trick. for n=2, pi/4, verifying the general formula. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:16:53

@nntaleb @PZalloua and I will join the U. (soon). We will force them to change the titles: The Prince in Italian, The Republic in Greek, all in the ORIGINAL language. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:08:36

@nntaleb Right I misread X instead of X^n. It is one transformation before. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:03:18

@nntaleb CORRECTION: S^n-1 in numerator Permalink 2020-07-24 13:43:15

@nntaleb Application Permalink 2020-07-24 13:42:35

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 13:39:33

@nntaleb Lyom! Min jéyé? Permalink 2020-07-24 13:13:58

@nntaleb Yes, imbeciles. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:54:20

@nntaleb Voila. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:53:14

@nntaleb INEQUALITY DU JOUR This one is easy enough for morning coffee. Helps start the weekend. [Non-math commentators, please do not pollute the thread] Permalink 2020-07-24 12:15:18

@nntaleb His wife is native Syrian speaking from Turkey. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:28:59

@nntaleb Doesn’t look Lebanese at all. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:15:48

@nntaleb It was never inside the article Permalink 2020-07-23 22:35:48

@nntaleb OK Permalink 2020-07-23 22:28:40

@nntaleb I can put you there. Give me a picture. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:27:26

@nntaleb A Dutcgg photographer clueless about population genetics. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:20:21

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-23 22:17:31

@nntaleb He was Med that’s not Middle Eastern Permalink 2020-07-23 22:16:10

@nntaleb Insufferable… with some… Permalink 2020-07-23 21:47:29

@nntaleb Completamente Permalink 2020-07-23 16:04:50

@nntaleb Which author? Permalink 2020-07-23 11:56:46

@nntaleb And remember the PDF is Free https://researchers.one/article/2020-01-21… https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-23 01:38:29

@nntaleb Unwavering in friendship, unwavery in enmity. Permalink 2020-07-23 01:36:00

@nntaleb Struck a deal Permalink 2020-07-22 16:12:18

@nntaleb That people who asked your type of question should NOT read the book. Permalink 2020-07-22 16:01:13

@nntaleb I was irked at the framing by the NYT Permalink 2020-07-22 15:54:08

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping [Next 2 weeks]. https://thescribestore.com/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb And remember the PDF is Free https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-22 15:53:09

@nntaleb Yes, the outcome & her end “position” is not the question. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:48:15

@nntaleb Actually worse: he was bad to OLD slaves. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:23:05

@nntaleb “Synchronous belief” Permalink 2020-07-22 14:20:40

@nntaleb I like “Mediterranean Studies” or Ancient World Studies since the pillars were Babylon + Egypt Permalink 2020-07-22 14:03:33

@nntaleb Excellent. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:56:20

@nntaleb There is another one, but yours is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:35:47

@nntaleb I saw a commentary on Deuteronomy. There is another one by Rashi but still deciphering. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:24:31

@nntaleb No, imbecile. She was bigottering IN THE article, even if she did not cancel him. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:18:29

@nntaleb 4) Midrash Sefre. Rabbi Yossi HaGalili: אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:14:51

@nntaleb אמר רבי יוסי הגלילי, וכי תעלה על דעתך, שאדם הולך אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:08:44

@nntaleb There is something YOU are not getting, aside from your defective anachronistic reasoning: the NYT DOES NOT publish stuff outside very very narrow parameters (I have 5 Op-Eds there). Permalink 2020-07-22 12:41:17

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:37:20

@nntaleb Thanks but when did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:11:21

@nntaleb They filter Op-Eds, do refuse mine systematically. I published 5 Op-Eds there in the past when the opinion was lined up to theirs. My point isn’t the opinion but the very idea of having to debate canceling a past figure. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:53:53

@nntaleb 3) The Wahabis destroyed ancient ruins in Saudi Arabia (including Islamic ones) to “prevent” idolatry. Soon we will be bulldozing ruins built by slaves (Great Pyramid/Coliseum), then structures built by labor w/o medical benefits, then those by nonvegetarian architects. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:38:10

@nntaleb (Yes I know the NYT ends up “opposed” to the idea of “cancelling Aristotle”, but the mere fact that they suggest the possibility …) Permalink 2020-07-22 11:22:31

@nntaleb 2/ By retrospective bigotteering, they will end up canceling ALL their ancestors, 99.9% of the contents of libraries and any institution older than 5 years will eventually end up canceling itself. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:17:01

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:09:01

@nntaleb Any reference? Permalink 2020-07-22 11:06:37

@nntaleb The NYT suggests cancelling Aristotle. This is retrospective bigotteering; it implies moral values DO NOT evolve. People need to be judged with respect to the morals OF THEIR OWN TIME. (But we can be harsh w/Napoleon who reinstated slavery.) Permalink 2020-07-22 10:53:05

@nntaleb Bingo, Nassim. Saudi/Gulf people despise Levantines and Maghrebis, consider them “impure”. Permalink 2020-07-22 10:36:24

@nntaleb OK same ting Permalink 2020-07-22 00:58:07

@nntaleb Squid ink. A lot of squid ink. Permalink 2020-07-22 00:22:47

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-21 23:58:43

@nntaleb Disagree. CI says roughly you cannot build a function to project over n steps without n-1, and n-1 without n-2. Non analytic, no derivatives, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 23:32:20

@nntaleb TeXpad Permalink 2020-07-21 23:06:26

@nntaleb Alla yer7ama. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:33:18

@nntaleb Tell them Nice try. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:06:58

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi might manage to escape justice for a while, but… where is he going to go? Nice to see one’s villains in a cage, from which they can’t get out. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:30:05

@nntaleb Something tells me that the risk is dose-related, so fewer deaths in the summer, mistakenly attributed to the unavoidable mutation. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:01:20

@nntaleb No cream. Just foam from the beans. Permalink 2020-07-21 19:19:40

@nntaleb The olive smell is intentional. This is the first probability book ever sold in Med grocery stores and luxury olive oil stores. Permalink 2020-07-21 18:46:55

@nntaleb You have the knack of posting videos of me with 20 kg more. Permalink 2020-07-21 17:21:07

@nntaleb Don’t worry if the Lebanese judiciary is frozen. The FT is on the job. This is today. Not a good day to be #RiadPonzi https://www.ft.com/content/d2d63b9b-9669-4ec0-93e9-ed97cbeb9261 via @financialtimes Permalink 2020-07-21 16:54:51

@nntaleb It is all starting now for Lebanese Central Bank Governor #RiadPonzi; we had to wait 10 m after I exposed him at USJ. He tried (& failed) to smear me (but hurt some of my friends) Being #vindictive, I manifest my elation watching the predicted fall of a villain & personal enemy. Permalink 2020-07-21 16:44:19

@nntaleb I don’t think so. Here is the PDF Permalink 2020-07-21 16:04:54

@nntaleb NY Permalink 2020-07-21 16:01:53

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-21 14:58:17

@nntaleb We have a note on country IQ to write. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:53:37

@nntaleb THINGS I LEARNED IN 2020 @rorysutherland told me that working outside, in a garden or in a park doesn’t feel like work. So long as it is outside. Works! Trying it for stuff that is *work* & requires colossal effort: s.a. reading emails from NJ, comments from referees, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:37:23

@nntaleb We knew “nudge” (Thaler and Sunstein) relies on a buch of severe errors in probability. It is actually worse: vastly non-empirical claims. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:04:21

@nntaleb Must be Lebanese, Tiyan is Semitic (Tyan = bird in Lebanese, Tuyyoyo = Arab in Syriac) and not found in French. Plus look at the picture Permalink 2020-07-21 12:56:07

@nntaleb I block imbeciles. Sorry. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:27:28

@nntaleb The same people who worry about “costs” of mitigating the pandemic spend trillions on weaponry “for insurance”. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:15:20

@nntaleb Not segregated in the modern sense. Town vs country, educated vs uneducated. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:09:09

@nntaleb Same tools same coffee grind. Never forget cold water after every sip, the East-Med way. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:05:47

@nntaleb @ndehouche can give you lists, St Augustine being the most known Permalink 2020-07-21 11:31:40

@nntaleb How much $$do they charge? Permalink 2020-07-21 11:03:20

@nntaleb How much is Amz UK? Could be OK Permalink 2020-07-21 10:57:49

@nntaleb Indeed the only podcasts I do is with @EconTalker as, over time, I learned refined economic reasoning from him & developed arguments over a 13 y conversation. Permalink 2020-07-21 10:53:56

@nntaleb Vivi in italia? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:07:54

@nntaleb In 2 or 3 days there will be a link to ship to Europe at minimal additional cost. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:05:48

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:04:54

@nntaleb Grazie. Impari qualcosa ogni giorno. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:02:53

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:57:48

@nntaleb Which is what I asked @Normonic, no? Or is it different when it is not a price, where you use the plural? In Fr it is “combien” for both Permalink 2020-07-21 00:56:37

@nntaleb In a store how you say “how much”? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:50:54

@nntaleb When you ask for a price, you say “quanto” or “quanti”? Curious Permalink 2020-07-21 00:32:52

@nntaleb You are debating someone I’ve blocked for serious defects in thinking. So keep that in mind when you get spurious arguments about what is or what is not “native”. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:29:33

@nntaleb You mean Central Med. Sicily = Central Med Permalink 2020-07-21 00:22:58

@nntaleb Quanto? 35? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:18:46

@nntaleb That’s the narrative used against Palestinians and used by the French to keep Algeria. Permalink 2020-07-20 22:51:32

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-20 21:38:58

@nntaleb We had 6x capacity, 2 y waiting list. Permalink 2020-07-20 21:22:27

@nntaleb 3indak nbid w Nero di Sepia. Shu baddo l wa7ad gheir shi? Permalink 2020-07-20 20:47:30

@nntaleb 3inna RWRI Permalink 2020-07-20 20:44:06

@nntaleb Mush kll l wa2t blebnén: 3 shor bil sené Permalink 2020-07-20 20:36:05

@nntaleb Fuck, no. The Levant only 2. Different culture/origins/history. Permalink 2020-07-20 20:03:46

@nntaleb WTF do you mean “finally”? Permalink 2020-07-20 19:49:57

@nntaleb If the thing is linear y1=a x, y2=b x, it is the integral of the absolute difference Abs[(b-a) x]. If same sign, =(b-a)(x2^2-x1^2)/2, otherwise pick {x1,x2,x3} and use absolute. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:46:59

@nntaleb False dichotomy: it is an error to ignore that the pandemic itself has economic costs and make a trade-off between health and economics. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:26:50

@nntaleb OK OK libya Permalink 2020-07-20 18:31:03

@nntaleb Lybia and Tunisia had Arabic J1e coming in noncoastal areas because nomads could handle the conditions, similar to Arabis. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:29:21

@nntaleb Most in the North did until the 1600s speak a version of it. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:27:41

@nntaleb Baddna zoom @Decafquest Permalink 2020-07-20 18:26:11

@nntaleb Straw man? leb dialect is treated as a “lahja” and descendant of Dus7a Permalink 2020-07-20 18:20:23

@nntaleb Easier to implement. Lebanese and Western Syrian. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:19:20

@nntaleb Konfirmed. Only Tunisia has Peninsular gene flow. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:17:39

@nntaleb heik 3am bi sir Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:33

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:02

@nntaleb Ktir burokratiyyé honik. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:41:58

@nntaleb Hi Not recommended. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:40:21

@nntaleb Some historical facts: Algerians (particularly in coastal cities) spoke Latin for CENTURIES before the French learned it & bastardized it into what is now their language. Make the #SouthMed great again! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:39:04

@nntaleb Evidence: 1 min ago Permalink 2020-07-20 16:46:49

@nntaleb Crap. Permalink 2020-07-20 16:45:29

@nntaleb There is no teleological “forward”. There is one condition: very small steps locally (with occasional large payoffs). Permalink 2020-07-20 16:05:39

@nntaleb Interestingly Rimbaud worked for a Lebanese dealer César Tiyyan Permalink 2020-07-20 14:48:03

@nntaleb The difference betw Classical Arabic and Levantine is stark here. Proves one can reach yuuuuuuuuuge linguistic prowess in Lebanese. This poetry that is never taught in school, repressed by the Arabists & the “left” that aims to destroys nonelite/local languages. @Firsou 1/n Permalink 2020-07-20 14:47:22

@nntaleb Not the point: reverse engineering produces compounding errors under dimensionality. Permalink 2020-07-20 14:20:56

@nntaleb Ana tlmizak! Permalink 2020-07-20 13:58:02

@nntaleb Below 70 Permalink 2020-07-20 13:32:16

@nntaleb My explanation why those discussing genetics of intelligence don’t understand basic multivariate statistics. Also applies to the BS claims by @sapinker. Permalink 2020-07-20 13:04:29

@nntaleb Leish hal akl khara? Mshklét l balad 2yura mtlak. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:59:40

@nntaleb Ana mush mtl Twayné W 2asir, 3ndé 3ilé2at ma3 l kll w ma3 l mashri2iyyé… bass msh ma3 l Salafiyyé wl 3urubiyyé Permalink 2020-07-20 12:51:33

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:13:54

@nntaleb Ma be2ra illa bil mashr2é (Levantine) Permalink 2020-07-20 11:45:06

@nntaleb Here is what he got confused with Permalink 2020-07-20 11:43:33

@nntaleb There is an “i” too many Permalink 2020-07-20 11:39:00

@nntaleb Ana baddé lézém lé2é jém3a 3a zaw2é bté3zmné. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:36:38

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:33:16

@nntaleb Fi byetrko, fi byeb2o, fi byejo! Ba3d ma @PZalloua 2arrar yb2a bi baladna bhal fatra lse3bé, mfakkar ana erja3, la intemé la jém3a bi Lebnén la 2awwé l ma3nawiyyét (w 3allém l tlémiz Data Science). Permalink 2020-07-20 11:29:26

@nntaleb Salibi was a fraud, I block people who promote frauds. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:02:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-20 11:00:54

@nntaleb In old Arabic, Ajami عجمي meant Persian or foreigner, as there was an expression: “al 3rbu wal 3ajamu”. Seemingly same in Osmali. Permalink 2020-07-20 00:22:20

@nntaleb It seems to me from what little Osmali I can make out, that Acemoglu is “son of the Persian”, Acemi+Oglu Permalink 2020-07-20 00:02:23

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-19 23:09:39

@nntaleb Yes in text explain that the collective is AF at the expense of individual restaurants. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:08:06

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 23:04:12

@nntaleb Never thought that. Restaurants have ALWAYS been fragile. The quality benefits from bankruptcies. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:03:44

@nntaleb I live there 3 mo/year … Permalink 2020-07-19 22:55:58

@nntaleb 2eltello Permalink 2020-07-19 22:40:37

@nntaleb Heik 2elello la 7sein mbére7. Permalink 2020-07-19 22:30:03

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order? Permalink 2020-07-19 21:01:42

@nntaleb @PZalloua is writing one. A real one Permalink 2020-07-19 18:46:41

@nntaleb He knows Classical Arabic but his native language is Levantine, 75% of a language away from Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-19 18:45:24

@nntaleb nitpicking: claim not claims Permalink 2020-07-19 17:21:17

@nntaleb nitpicking: speack IN French Permalink 2020-07-19 17:20:44

@nntaleb GODEL DU JOUR Someone hearing me speak french, – Ah you speak French [in French] Me [in French]: Not at all I am faking it (“je fais semblant”) – Sorry I mistakenly thought you spoke Fr Me [in French]: Everyone makes mistakes. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:15:18

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-19 17:09:25

@nntaleb Yes I blocked for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:01:30

@nntaleb The claims that I blocked Saifedean Ammous based on private communication is a lie. I blocked him on the basis of dangerously crankish and conspiratorial public feed. I block all lunatics. Gabish? Permalink 2020-07-19 16:51:29

@nntaleb Leish ya Bourashid ma btktob bil 7 mtlna la nefham bsr3a? Permalink 2020-07-19 13:19:54

@nntaleb Free PDF Permalink 2020-07-19 12:08:57

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 6 Footnotes. a) PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE The quality of hardcover books released now is so bad, as it publishers knew nobody would care about the book after 2 years. b) Few publishers are in for the 3rd wave: Penguin (UK), Knopf, etc. Why? It’s a small market! Permalink 2020-07-19 12:06:06

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 5 So, need to avoid “launches” to avoid the promiscuous 1st wave buyers. My books will not be launched/distributed, just to avoid the buyer who *buys books* rather than someone who wants the specific topic. I started my own publishing for StConsFTails. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:52:01

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 4 I am only interested in the 3rd wave (FBR, INCERTO-1, is ~20 y old); I am in a different business. I shd avoid the First Wave buyer, who doesn’t count long term. They rely on book reviewers (not time), e.g. that BSVendor @EasterbrookG for the NYT. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 3 Most Publishers make $from the First Wave, with increasingly lower quality paper that degrades w/time. Their staff isn’t even equipped for the 3rd Wave as no credits/promotions beyond the first/2nd year when the book is attributed to a specific editor Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 2 Then they move on to the next book & books go to low margin paperback & eventually die. 2nd Wave: Few books survive, only if they have #Lindy attributes, & or if some academic conversation props them up. Third Wave: One in 1,000 -10,000 makes it. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 1 First Wave: Fashion buyers, the class of people who systematically buy NEW “idea books”. The entire book industry organized to sell to them. Books must be “in the conversation”. The hardcover sales is where the $$$are made. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is what I am saying. Tribes and national statism are not the same thing. See PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-19 11:26:03

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 11:01:04

@nntaleb The dark story of the “enlightenment”. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:00:11

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-19 10:56:22

@nntaleb Just ordered. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-19 02:24:50

@nntaleb Ktir 2awiyyé Permalink 2020-07-19 00:16:01

@nntaleb Thanks Mansour! mt3addar it is, from Hydra AND, mysteriously, from an old Semitic tale about a donkey that grows heads when you cut one off. [Practically all Greek myth have a more ancient Aegyptian or Semitic counterpart] Te3dir تِعدير = antifragilty Permalink 2020-07-18 20:49:25

@nntaleb mt3addar! the right meaning. Permalink 2020-07-18 20:20:01

@nntaleb How about متلدن from تلدين, annealing? Permalink 2020-07-18 20:09:31

@nntaleb مش كافي Permalink 2020-07-18 20:07:09

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-18 20:01:59

@nntaleb 3am nt2arrab! Permalink 2020-07-18 19:58:50

@nntaleb לָֹא, יעני תחססנ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:52:22

@nntaleb In Hebrew was Anti shabir אנטי שביר Permalink 2020-07-18 19:49:41

@nntaleb robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:48:12

@nntaleb يعني اكل دعك… و تحسن Permalink 2020-07-18 19:46:36

@nntaleb منيحا هيده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:45:19

@nntaleb لئ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:44:19

@nntaleb متخبط ؟ كلمه جديده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:43:10

@nntaleb No no no Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:45

@nntaleb No no no ماكن= robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:27

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DISCUSSION Looking for a term close to Antifragile in Levantine (not necessarily Antifragile) for a translation of the article with @HsenAndil and @Zzeghedrane. It does not have to be literal Permalink 2020-07-18 19:19:12

@nntaleb Yes, you are right. This was not published… I didn’t recognize my words as I usually polish before putting in a book. Permalink 2020-07-18 18:37:01

@nntaleb I NEVER wrote this Permalink 2020-07-18 17:16:51

@nntaleb If you want. If so, pls add + ergodicity + IQ + GMO(s) + Brier Permalink 2020-07-18 17:13:48

@nntaleb The Khazar theory is but, was some BS by a political journalist. Permalink 2020-07-18 17:06:55

@nntaleb Hold off might get something better Permalink 2020-07-18 13:52:44

@nntaleb But can’t get the distinct Koura smell. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:45:01

@nntaleb I speculate that, aside from the dimensionality problem, e-books cannot produce odors, so I guess no olive oil. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1284470642180587521 Permalink 2020-07-18 13:43:20

@nntaleb How much is shipping? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:37:47

@nntaleb Yes, of course, many historians are rigorous; which part of “usually” was not clear? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:35:19

@nntaleb We changed supplier. New one delivers immediately. You can cancel and reorder. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:33:50

@nntaleb “Orders” Permalink 2020-07-18 13:31:38

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:20:35

@nntaleb No, Aleppo: many look like him there. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:41:11

@nntaleb Cannot resist. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:31:40

@nntaleb 2) This is a “mamluk nobleman from Aleppo”. Explain how one could be BOTH slave and nobleman except in a structure similar to Mafia made man. Historians are usually not very bright; their classifications are absurd & they don’t have the guts or intellect to question them. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:25:48

@nntaleb Ingram the distributor is incompetent. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:13:57

@nntaleb No fucking imbecile, this is IN COMPARISON to other populations. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:12:41

@nntaleb HISTORICAL MUSING of the day: MAFIA & MAMELUKS The Mameluks were military “slaves” (oft. Chris. born) who were paradoxically the ruling class. How? Same w/MADE MEN in the Mafia. Once in you can’t get out. You are both owned by the mafia & part owner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamluk Permalink 2020-07-18 12:10:50

@nntaleb Jaffer, block nitpickers. This has nothing to do with the gender of the predator. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:22:56

@nntaleb He is OK but no scholar. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:57

@nntaleb The biggest BS in discourse is claiming “people are self-interested and *rational*”. No. It is not so “rational” at the individual level; it is rational at the group level to wear mask under multiplicative risks because YOU are part of the multiplication. https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1284190658060668928 Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:02

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 23:17:38

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? This is giving moral support to 000s of youth. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:03:20

@nntaleb Fuck, no. I’ve never seen an economist do real world statistics right. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:00:50

@nntaleb The precedent has begun. Detenuring is easy: close depts. Rent-seeking at the expense of middle class parents eventually has an end. Detenured professors in social science are unskilled labor outside citation rings. You can’t use an economist for gardening or moving furniture. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:45:09

@nntaleb The Indicator function gives you Pi. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:37:05

@nntaleb You represent the East Med. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:59:34

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 18:49:57

@nntaleb This is heroic. 1) Zalloua stays in Lebanon to be honorable/not a deserter. 2) Joins the univ. of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch (even better). 3) We are starting the EAST MED DATA SCIENCE CENTER. 4) Balamand is a 12 C Crusader outpost (Belmont), 6 km from Amioun. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:44:18

@nntaleb Siesta. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:16:46

@nntaleb Genetically, Meds are not made for the sun. 6000-3000 years is not enough. Their skin wrinkles. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:05:56

@nntaleb Why do I despise nitpickers? Tautology in LOGIC is a statement that is true by necessity. Do you mind if I block you? Don’t be offended. It is simple discipline: I managed in my life and in my Twitter feed to get rid of nitpickers. Permalink 2020-07-17 16:58:18

@nntaleb Fox News will some day discover that thing commonly known as tautology. https://fxn.ws/30oLmI2 #FoxNews Permalink 2020-07-17 16:10:23

@nntaleb Not always and not for everyone. Money cured my desire for luxuries. Permalink 2020-07-17 15:48:45

@nntaleb Siesta Permalink 2020-07-17 15:22:25

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-17 14:55:50

@nntaleb That fund? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march Permalink 2020-07-17 14:54:54

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-17 13:41:41

@nntaleb Vero Permalink 2020-07-17 13:37:44

@nntaleb @tomsmith585 https://link.medium.com/ZpadefF7b8 Permalink 2020-07-17 13:33:05

@nntaleb I know it’s comedy. Problem is many don’t Permalink 2020-07-17 13:09:18

@nntaleb Weyn l Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-17 13:04:18

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME! Absense of sense of humor is a marker of a total inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, maxbitcoiners, Salafis, Protestant zealots, NYTcopyeditors, CancelCulturistas & others w/seriously defective intellects. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:55:45

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME thing! Absense of humor is a sign of inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, Salafis, zealots, etc. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:44:52

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people who write nonsense. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:38:45

@nntaleb Thanks to lax law enforcement in some U.S. cities these strategies might be actually used to promote mask use– a step up from social shaming. Permalink 2020-07-17 11:10:11

@nntaleb Any function of it. Permalink 2020-07-17 10:48:45

@nntaleb Why? This is both true and not racist at all since NonGaussian. Permalink 2020-07-17 01:45:50

@nntaleb And the highest title was “second teacher”, as nobody could reach the level of Aristotle. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Farabi Permalink 2020-07-16 22:30:22

@nntaleb There were tonnnnnnnnns of Greek speaking people in the Khalifate (my ancestors and all educated pple in the coastal Levant). But Arabic language thinkers worshiped Aristotle but relied on “the interpreter” who wrote in Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:27:52

@nntaleb حلوة يريت استعملتها لما كتبت انتيهشاش Permalink 2020-07-16 22:12:17

@nntaleb Culinarily, America is now a Med colony. Permalink 2020-07-16 19:13:03

@nntaleb Having a lot of Twitter followers… not necessarily Permalink 2020-07-16 18:32:34

@nntaleb “Israeli style”? You mean Lebanese. Permalink 2020-07-16 18:29:43

@nntaleb You said Arabic doesn’t work Permalink 2020-07-16 18:28:53

@nntaleb As usual, they went to Alexandria … then. Athens was a relic. Permalink 2020-07-16 17:16:38

@nntaleb There is a yuuuuuuge Byzantine production repressed by Euro scholars because of Gibbons and the bad press of the enlightenment. Will find Mavroudi’s lecture. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:34:17

@nntaleb Reinvention; read reintroduction into the consciousness but since 3rd C BC Alexandria was the true Greek center. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:17:45

@nntaleb For 1800 years few Greeks discussed Athens. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:09:38

@nntaleb Which is why Hagia Sophia hurts. Greek is Hellenistic, not Classical; Nordics who reinvented a “Greek identity” w/Greek gods on coffeeshop takeout mugs never get it. Nor do Levantines brainwashed by Arab fascism. Athens is a German Disneyland-style reinvention in the early 19C. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:59:40

@nntaleb New York Suburbs. In normal times, this parking lot for commuters to NYC would be full. Sometimes all it takes is one single image to be hit with reality. I am still in disbelief. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:53:13

@nntaleb Maybe they use past record as prior Permalink 2020-07-16 13:33:27

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1267161610243710976?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-16 11:37:30

@nntaleb Mabruk. Weyn? Permalink 2020-07-16 11:23:20

@nntaleb COVID is an economic stress test: the fragile is being destroyed (universities, airlines); the robust will thrive. It’s mostly an intellectual stress test; destroying fake probability: non-EVT epidemiology, naive”evidence based”(Ioannidis), BS vendors (@PTetlock🐁, Sunstein)… Permalink 2020-07-16 10:48:16

@nntaleb When Turkish was written with Arabic characters, they respected the sounds: “c” was “g”, etc. Permalink 2020-07-16 10:14:51

@nntaleb Palestinians from Galilee, particularly Christians, have the same genetics as Greeks and Southern Italians. Are Greeks “brown”? If so, is Aristotle “brown”? How did you get a theology degree being that stupid? Permalink 2020-07-16 01:21:29

@nntaleb Yes they took over and it was more like made men in the mafia: you are now a property of the mafia while being part owner. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:02:26

@nntaleb It’s going to get better. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:01:26

@nntaleb Never Beirut. It was largely migration into, unlike Tyre. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:45:21

@nntaleb Actually Med genetics! Permalink 2020-07-15 21:35:31

@nntaleb With help from Scribe Media @TuckerMax @zachobront Permalink 2020-07-15 21:22:50

@nntaleb Liguria is Med as hell Permalink 2020-07-15 21:19:27

@nntaleb No child sacrifice is fake news. They just buried dead children together. Greeks have plenty of aged persons in statues. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:15:13

@nntaleb Yes and the Jesuits messed it up with casuistry and use of equivocation. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:30:31

@nntaleb Look at the wrinkles! Permalink 2020-07-15 20:25:11

@nntaleb ALL Roman soldiers were free men, no? Same with Arabs. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:24:47

@nntaleb “Meds try to look older; more prestige…” True Trying to do a portrait for the French Incerto. Will look 24 years older and 24 lbs heavier. Why? this is not a diet/life coaching book. https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMuray/status/1283496199300026371?s=20 Permalink 2020-07-15 20:22:54

@nntaleb White lie. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:18:00

@nntaleb Lying (outside of white lies) is a sin, except when some busybody asks you something personal that’s none of their business or not relevant to the discussion. You are then morally obligated to confuse them. When journos ask me for my DoB, I always give Mandelbrot’s, 1924. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:14:41

@nntaleb Soon Permalink 2020-07-15 19:35:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-15 19:08:18

@nntaleb You can approve it is a different distributor, in stock. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:06:49

@nntaleb Actually it is in from another distributor. So you can wait for old order to be fulfilled or cancel and reorder, but for US only. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:05:40

@nntaleb Could it be Mori? Permalink 2020-07-15 18:59:22

@nntaleb Hi, when did you order? Thanks Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:33

@nntaleb I picked the MOST expensive paper I could find, full color. This is an artisanal book, where I wrote, typeset, formatted. Did the entire thing. Feels like #SoulInTheGame Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:09

@nntaleb Actually, the Naples version is a pun since “muori” is a town nearby. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:28:05

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:47

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:34

@nntaleb Soon you will see more evidence with my notes on the text. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:13:19

@nntaleb Je lis Frédéric Dard pour la langue. Pas d’académie, pas de controle. Permalink 2020-07-15 16:59:28

@nntaleb But those you can’t study for them Permalink 2020-07-15 16:47:29

@nntaleb If you must study for an exam, you will never really know the subject matter. Permalink 2020-07-15 15:49:30

@nntaleb Grant, you can get the class at TJ Max for $6 a pair! Permalink 2020-07-15 13:55:27

@nntaleb “Qui m’ont échappé”, cher compatriote grecophénicien. Permalink 2020-07-15 13:54:33

Fat Tony, NJ, Pandemics, Harari , coronavirus, panic early, Tesla, AUSTRALIA, IQ, Coach Rippetoe, Iran, Soleimani, Ghosn, HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019, Negronis,

Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications


@nntaleb Fat Tony lives in NJ; but he self defines as “from Brooklyn”. “It’s that bridge, you know”. Permalink 10:14 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Comments on New Jersey in The Incerto… one of many pic.twitter.com/0TeSh0F2vh Permalink 9:18 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I wonder what is scaring them the most: the virus or being forced to stay in New Jersey. https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1225770175380803584   Permalink 7:32 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Also there is a focus on AI, machine learning, and data science, away from traditional idiotic business school finance. Permalink 7:01 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Our NYU Tandon School of Engineering Fin program is becoming increasingly successful, largely because of the link to the real world. Both Peter Carr & yours truly come from practice, and have developed our research WHILE in practice. @nyutandon @NYUFRE https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/nyu-tandon-financial-engineering-program-ranked-among-best   Permalink 6:52 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Speculative Mediterranean Philology DuJour: Question. Moustaki/Mustacchi/Μουστακί/ς Μουστάκας does not seem to have a real Greek origin. Could it come from the Semitic مستقي\ مشطقّي؟\مصطقّي ? Note the Italian c+ch = قّ Permalink 12:14 PM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb For instance: Lebanese deposits #Lebanon https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1225491481500225538   Permalink 10:50 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Para mi es claro que para entender la salud humana de forma integral, así como para prevenir y hacer frente a epidemias como la actual, necesitamos un enfoque complejo @redcompleja que permita por ejemplo valorar estos riesgos ver la nota de @normonics, @yaneerbaryam y @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/c0ZuERfm4G Permalink 10:49 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “In the medical and social domains, treatment should never be equivalent to silencing symptoms.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:24 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Salibi was a BS vendor: into historical fabrication, relied upon by Arab fascists to destroy #Localism & Med Cosmopolitanism. Never ever cite Salibi for anything. For instance, his story of the Yemen exodus (Marib dam) was debunked by population genetics (@PZalloua). https://twitter.com/ZiryabJ/status/1225419602315878400   Permalink 6:15 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Will give a remote lecture in @spyrosmakrid’s class. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1224353486793596929   Permalink 6:08 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Another distinguishing feature: Photius was a lay person and a yuuge erudite. There are antecedents allowing lay people to become patriarchs of Constantinople, the highest calling for any orthodox, in case someone is interested. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1225406512279031808   Permalink 5:32 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PRINCIPIA https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1225090288546406400   Permalink 7:30 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Total victims (reported) are now ~20,000. When we did these piece, the number was about 1,000. Multiplicative processes. Einstein has a saying (attributed to him) about the force of compound interest. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 7:23 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb An MD may know a lot of clinical stuff (though not always) but cannot comprehend multiplicative processes. So they should shut the f**k up when it comes to these risks. Called “carpenter fallacy” w/ the GMO problem: to understand risks of roulette, know probability not carpentry. https://twitter.com/Aemiliannus/status/1225110386560655360   Permalink 12:04 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Friends, my book is here. Easier to read than ArXiv. You can also add comments. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 12:04 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Solved! Ignore, take a walk, come back and the solution comes out. pic.twitter.com/RwSSfpExHF Permalink 11:16 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@AllAboutAlpha “Statistician/philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb critiques “behavioral” economics and finance as he looks at the differences between “binary forecasts” and “real world payoffs,” in a recent paper for the International Journal of Forecasting.” https://bit.ly/313J0Ox   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BNkYpkscYo”>  pic.twitter.com/BNkYpkscYo Permalink 9:50 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Actually… proof is TK pic.twitter.com/Sl1pKilQyj Permalink 9:45 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb My point on homeopathy is that it distracts the patient away from iatrogenics when the disease is within 1 sigma. https://twitter.com/david_perell/status/1225100974676639744   Permalink 9:44 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@GCsVentures Meanwhile, I’m learning that Sweden (where I reside & pay taxes) is imposing zero quarantine on people coming from China at the moment. @Folkhalsomynd please don’t blindly follow the @WHO. Enforce quarantines and/or stop influx from China now. Please see https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 9:40 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Pages 8-11 Friends, looking for typos/errors. Thanks again pic.twitter.com/IkhwN5OLlr Permalink 9:38 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@statsmartin Yes, @researchersone publishes books! Check out @nntaleb’s latest book “Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 7:32 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Pages 4-7 pic.twitter.com/j2ox078mjG Permalink 6:36 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Reposting (corrected) pages 1-3 (single page, easier to read) pic.twitter.com/uqYxMqN1CL Permalink 6:25 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Friends, the draft of the transcription of a lecture I gave at the Leopoldina academy on how RISK & PARANOIA are misunderstood by psychologists & BS vendors. Part 1, for comments pic.twitter.com/MTmvuVA5Jn Permalink 6:20 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The ting about these puzzles is that you always think it is a 15 min morning exercise, but they have a totally stochastic stopping time. This, unexpectedly, took houuuuuuuuuuuuuurs! Permalink 6:26 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb This s***t cost me half my Sunday! Tough, tough! pic.twitter.com/eSbgKq8urF Permalink 6:07 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Expect more BS like this one by @johnpilger https://twitter.com/johnpilger/status/1224119492126527488   Permalink 5:12 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The Black Swan (2007) discusses the risks of a virus spreading owing to the increased connectivity in the modern environment. Connectivity increases fattailedness. We were never as connected as we were 10 days ago. pic.twitter.com/XzQNgJGAca Permalink 7:09 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@JamesMarsh79 I remember when @nntaleb @financequant debated the risks of an outbreak at #rwri, nassim mentioned that hospitable might not even be open because staff wouldn’t show up. Wise https://twitter.com/wsj/status/1223984447550361600   Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sunday morning workout. pic.twitter.com/WUC5yPiAj6 Permalink 6:19 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The type of fake empiricism we @yaneerbaryam and @normonics are trying to correct. Note it is almost ALWAYS a journo or a psychologist (@qhardy) making such irresponsible claim. Lightning strikes are not multiplicative, hence thin-tailed. https://twitter.com/qhardy/status/1223940970871316480   Permalink 6:18 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@yannispetro Similar to drinking a drop of tap water every time you visit India @nntaleb @SavvasSalou @JennyKechagia https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/1223726591169253376   Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR https://twitter.com/Marcellenassif/status/1223725662185447425   Permalink 1:57 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “It is much harder to become independent if you are wealthy than to become wealthy if you are independent.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 12:06 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Right to left… Or, better, random order https://twitter.com/Zrimat_/status/1223651362354925568   Permalink 9:45 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A trivial computation: If IQ mapped to intelligence rather than unintelligence (i.e. <70), where are the 800,000 geniuses? Trivial. pic.twitter.com/4gO1MNV1JY Permalink 8:19 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dear Atlantans, this friend of mine is in Atlanta and looking for a Calabese barber or possibly any Mediterranean barber shop a la old country style (where barbers have a heavy accent). Can anyone help? pic.twitter.com/7jK8gmiDxg Permalink 7:17 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@yvespatte Il y a quelques jours, pendant que des éditorialistes nous disaient qu’il n’y avait pas à s’inquiéter du coronavirus, des chercheurs spécialisés en risk management et en système complexe, @normonics, Yaneer Bar-Yam et @nntaleb, publiaient ce papier : https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/h9vfmGyi3c”>  pic.twitter.com/h9vfmGyi3c Permalink 5:45 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@LaikiEksixroni1 @nntaleb lets bring Lebanon to the where it belongs https://twitter.com/EastMedMonitor/status/1223555043246444545   Permalink 2:39 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, drummers in rythms, and idiots in labels. Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 5:14 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) I feel safe traveling in the US over the next month. Permalink 3:20 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb GREAT NEWS. We are told that our article helped move the needle as the US government has taken the rational precautionary measures we advocated. @normonics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 2:39 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Some background: the alt-right, Charles Murray et al, Nordic supremacists & eugenists, are bothered by my IQ article. Murray is circulating “debunkings” by some bloggist. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:32 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@mikeandallie (1/3) I’ve learned an enormous amount from @nntaleb in the last 4 or 5 years about what it means to pursue math away from academia. It isn’t simply a matter of depth of knowledge, though, it is his fearlessness with doing math in public and his ability to explain deep +. pic.twitter.com/BWm5rkXhXI Permalink 2:27 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A reminder of Charles Murray as a fake scholar. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640   Permalink 2:00 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Something that grows at a rate of >10% a day is a problem (here potentially 25%). We need to constrain its growth. Every point counts! 6-9 months would be a disaster. https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1223026763896434694?s=20   Permalink 3:40 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Hurricanes are not multiplicative. Some viruses are. Permalink 3:37 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Apparently the person holding up the precautionary measures to constrain mobility is a son of Amioun: Health Secretary Alex Azar @SecAzar who, unlike another son of Amioun*, doesn’t get precautionary principles in a complex interactive system. *Amioun is our village of origin https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 2:46 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@chasechandler This is the problem with term “evidence based.” Almost always used with great ignorance of emergence and downside asymmetry. Permalink 12:31 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@normonics WORST possible recommendation. This is why we can’t subject ourselves to global scale policy. This is an outrageous statement #coronavirus https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1222969858574430217   Permalink 12:05 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@johncarlosbaez Thanks, Eric. Alas, I have a kind of allergy to shows where bigshots get interviewed about stuff. Permalink 11:47 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@hugowiz «If we don’t understand something and it has a systemic effect, just avoid it.» Skin in the game @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/waIiZL9OdO Permalink 11:39 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Continued in Lebanon: some people are still classified as Rum. https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1222854495622877184   Permalink 11:22 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@BotTradingQuote We have this culture of financialization. People think they need to make money with savings rather with their business. So you end up with dentists who are more traders than dentists. A dentist should drill teeth and use whatever he does in the market for entertainment-@nntaleb Permalink 6:30 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@paulportesi No. @nntaleb has discussed many of tactics on this particular issue. He “trades” in the world markets. I defer to him. Time spent on revenge is never wasted. NNT Revenge is a moral obligation. NNT Revenge isn’t just revenge. It’s a deterrent.” – NNT https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972887563164946432?s=19   https://twitter.com/royer_geoffrey/status/1222664501876678656   Permalink 3:44 PM – 29 Jan 2020

@animangia Now @nntaleb is going to have a Capisch emoji https://twitter.com/emojipedia/status/1222635333491286019   Permalink 3:28 PM – 29 Jan 2020

@yaneerbaryam Community action for Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic response pic.twitter.com/2xyLdMREju Permalink 11:26 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb He knows something we don’t know. “Boeing CEO David Calhoun: I don’t expect lasting Coronavirus impact” https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/01/29/boeing-ceo-david-calhoun-i-dont-expect-lasting-coronavirus-impact.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter   Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The Trump Peace Plan is not about peace and not a plan; it is, simply, punitive capitulation terms a la Versailles. It also ignores Palestinian refugees in Lebanon & elsewhere. Permalink 4:25 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb November 4-5 2020 https://twitter.com/narekk/status/1222399764290920450   Permalink 3:23 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Final Version of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails finally on ArXiv. Hard copy out soon. https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.10488   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2gvRKLERkr”>  pic.twitter.com/2gvRKLERkr Permalink 3:15 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “You need to realize that the only thing a career academic can really teach you is how to be a career academic.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #books Permalink 2:45 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “If you reject unfounded blame, you must also reject unjustified praise.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 5:40 PM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Karl Sharro @KarlreMarks plagiarizing again? pic.twitter.com/7bm9NjRgM4 Permalink 11:43 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntalebbot “The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@GCsVentures Worry about journalists, politicians (and doctors!) not understanding the necessary precautionary principle. Dangerous idiots, literally playing with your lives. Read @nntaleb, @normonics and @yaneerbaryam. https://academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note   https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedScience/status/1222215240756158466   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JVO6bfbrNK”>  pic.twitter.com/JVO6bfbrNK Permalink 10:28 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The cental rule in life is that it is much, much better to panic early than late. Permalink 8:45 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb So an Egyptian (Hamitic) writes to a Hittite (Indo-European) in a Semitic Language (Accadian) or am I mistaken? cc:@Safaitic https://twitter.com/mynemosyne54/status/1221892174146670592   Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@normonics Dean of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong gets it. – we must apply the precautionary principle – we don’t predict, we prepare – we must stop it at the scale of macroscopic mobility patterns @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam an ally https://twitter.com/athemtarwp/status/1221925524647247872   Permalink 8:40 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@maiamajumder I’ve seen a few tweets recently about how R_0 is the mean of a distribution (via @nntaleb) and how its dispersion is important to understand (via @DFisman & @C_Althaus). This is very true (for #nCoV2019 & otherwise), and it’s why I posted this graphic last week. [THREAD] 1/x https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1220802808976486406   Permalink 12:42 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb One possible approach pic.twitter.com/6LHi3RW7tx Permalink 12:29 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Exercise du Jour (Note: Correct Quote is “Easier to buy and sell than fry an egg”.) pic.twitter.com/N1PCEp6QSf Permalink 12:00 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb FORT LAUDERDALE AIRPORT INFORMATION BOOTH Me: “are there comfortable trains from here to Miami?” Answer (by Information official): “Why don’t you use Google?” Me: “Aren’t you an information desk?” Answer: “Aren’t you able to use Google?” Permalink 11:35 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@JohnCleese The Master and his Emissary by Iain McGilchrist ( for the second time ) and Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb There wasn’t much space for colouring, but I must admit they both coloured my thinking May I recommend ” An Idiots’s Guide to Punctuation ” ? https://twitter.com/DanoFretman/status/1221868424529231872   Permalink 11:22 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb No worries, it is added to the list https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm   Nigel Warburton, a despicable man, does not have the ethics to remove it. Permalink 10:15 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@rperezmarco For sure all the mediterraneans we have more in common than any culture from the inland, and a main characteristic is cosmopolitanism. Makes more sense to me a Mediterranean Union than EU, although I think we are too anarchists for that Permalink 8:01 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:37 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) Funny translation of his song “Le Meteque”, “Juif errant, et pâtre grec ” sung in Hebrew by Yossi Banai. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBK3t_AZceQ   Permalink 5:10 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) He was called “Monsieur 1 volt” (contrast w/Becaud’s 100,000 volts”) because of his sterotypical Mediterranean nonchalance. But he was productive without showing it, by spezzatura. Like all cosmopolitan Meds he was a pacifist. He loved Beirut & would have lived there except.. Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) He started by writing poetry in French. Like all Trans-Meds, he self identified as Greek though did not speak the language naturally. The Romaniotes are a very small true Greek community: even more Meds than Greco-Phoenicians & Greco-Syrians. pic.twitter.com/2fwNkGUcoX Permalink 5:01 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb COSMOPOLITAN MEDITERRANEISM 1) The modern person who represents modern trans-nation-state Mediterraneism is Georges Moustaki. He was Alexandrian, from a Greek-Jewish Romaniote family (on that, next) (father’s name Nessim), spoke Italian at home, French educated; ended in Paris. pic.twitter.com/Np0n4q6Nq3 Permalink 4:58 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The number of people infected is a random variable with huge dispersion; hard to measure and subjected to downward biases in measurement. Permalink 4:46 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Why R_0 should NEVER be discussed by journos. It is a distributional concept, not a metric like the height of a child! pic.twitter.com/x3FHKpICvD Permalink 4:33 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb An explanation of why K_0 is biased big time; miscomputed via moment estimators. pic.twitter.com/jwttJKSStn Permalink 3:30 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Another ignorant journalist dealing with risk matters. Irresponsible. https://twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220969972215631872?s=21   https://twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220969972215631872   Permalink 12:31 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb As predicted https://twitter.com/ncov19/status/1221507196070002689?s=21   https://twitter.com/ncov19/status/1221507196070002689   Permalink 12:18 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb No. It ia irresponsible and immoral to pay the Eurobond. #Lebanon https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1221521937651982336   Permalink 12:00 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness 101: did they factor in that healthy and energetic people are more likely to go to museums? https://nyti.ms/2tDdRoo   Permalink 10:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HOW TO REACT TO PANDEMICS can be dowloaded belo @normonics, @yaneerbaryam #ChinaCoronaVirus #China https://academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WH79rULG9d”>  pic.twitter.com/WH79rULG9d Permalink 9:33 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@Tejlgaard I live 500km from Wuhan. Your analysis is not just correct; I used your principles from the Incerto to stock up in time on nonperishable food for 3 months. I did so before everybody else even thought about it. Now, no non-perishable food remains in most shops. Permalink 8:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb My point of crying wolf during the Ebola episode. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 8:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Almost all of psychology texts (on psych of risk) miss the point. https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1221468544082284547?s=20   Permalink 8:27 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher.” Skin in the Game https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1221102799636848640   Permalink 8:20 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 1) The point is that you can be wrong a zillion times; doesn’t matter if all it takes is once to hit extinction. 2) It’s remarkable how pple who learn statistics become dangerously stupid, like this “professor” @AlexColangelo Car accidents are thin-tailed, never multiplicative pic.twitter.com/P3z8qdJHvQ Permalink 8:14 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@AEiddddddd pic.twitter.com/g3u9J970mc Permalink 7:05 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A reminder of the type of arguments that will cause humanity to go extinct. Systematically blocked. pic.twitter.com/6HU00tHCTU Permalink 6:26 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The problem with the China #Coronavirus: Fat Tails and Naive Empiricism a la Cass Sunstein/S Pinker. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/QWVXLtTxVp Permalink 4:32 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The journo is an irresponsible imbecile. My talk in Cyprus: without extreme paranoia, we can’t survive. #ergodicity requires ignoring costs-benefits in the presence of ruin problems. https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/dont-buy-the-media-hype-over-the-new-china-virus/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons   via @nypost Permalink 2:59 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Because, connectivity and tails. WHO are rent seeking idiots. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1221214284379828224   Permalink 3:48 PM – 25 Jan 2020

@yaneerbaryam When we warned on Ebola people said quarantine was impossible. At least in China urban scale quarantine is seen as an essential way to combat pandemics. We need effective policy — and not wait for global catastrophe to teach us. https://necsi.edu/ending-pandemics   @nntaleb Permalink 3:07 PM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Why your body learns disproportionally from tail events. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d   https://twitter.com/hugowiz/status/1221105195427348480   Permalink 11:43 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #ethics Permalink 8:46 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@hugowiz «All you need to learn are the safety skills to move off the floor at your maximum while avoiding injury. Lindy again: weight lifters have known the phenomenology for at least two and a half millennia.» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks pic.twitter.com/dGrDx9f98F Permalink 8:19 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Note: while we know the R_0 of the Flu, we don’t know that of WuFlu. Because it is an average, its small sample properties make it biased downward in measurements. Permalink 7:46 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Sopistry Alert: She is not a public servant. She cannot plunder coffers and or have friends do do. Gebran is a public servant. #BSbustingDuJour https://twitter.com/jamalfayad/status/1220765565398212615   Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Interestingly the only pple who talk about “scientific consensus” (aside from GMO shills like @mark_lynas) are journalists, schoolteachers,& other destroyers of science. Science is a rigorous process against consensus, questioning consensus, & debunking consensus. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1221046559074217984   Permalink 4:34 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “A book is something that can be read ten years after publication. A real book, twenty. Otherwise it is a magazine report with bookbinding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The fellow is correcting Pinker-style naive empiricism & bogus “rationality”/”realism” (of the type peddled by psychologists). For some things paranoia is necessary for survival. The reproductive factor maps to fat-tailedness. Note: the mortality rate shd increase over time. https://twitter.com/DaveHarig/status/1220839482544590849   Permalink 3:24 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is the kind of thing that makes me … https://twitter.com/designboom/status/1220833662272491528   Permalink 3:18 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Much more elegant pic.twitter.com/MkCmkSR8yB Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is easier; doesn’t go through offsetting log of negatives. pic.twitter.com/F02qeLoQjv Permalink 2:16 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The sucker problem is to answer lim=1. pic.twitter.com/y6yKSq8ehp Permalink 2:04 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Friday distraction with a small sucker problem. pic.twitter.com/9as4dANTOW Permalink 1:24 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb My idea of rationality: ergodicity & survival under true distributions. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 12:50 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb New Harvard Course: “Pseudo-Empiricism” or “Scientism 101” https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1220784778254770176   Permalink 11:20 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@sergesapiens Mnunchin is a lost cause. At least Greta gets fat tail risk of messing up with nature. ⁦@GretaThunberg⁩ , I recommend you attend #RWRI, read ⁦@nntaleb⁩ and learn about complex systems, via negativa & fractal localism. More effective than WEF! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51219530   Permalink 10:07 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb عذر أقبح من ذنب Permalink 2:34 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “When a principle is strong and (you feel) imperative, everything you do to justify it or rationalize it makes it weaker. Everything.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:07 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@SaranshGNY This is good coming from Taleb because many radical nationalist movements around the globe misinterpret his ideas and consider him the intellectual patron saint of their cause. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1220417092819857408   Permalink 11:33 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Maybe overkill… pic.twitter.com/48FfKKCFGB Permalink 3:19 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tXnUvPFk9R Permalink 2:30 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Now @sapinker will tell us that it is “irrational” to worry about it because there is “evidence” that more people die falling from ladders. #PseudoEmpiricism #NaiveEmpiricism https://twitter.com/WellmanAlex/status/1220044510287269889   Permalink 11:25 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@TulsiGabbard For years, @ggreenwald has exposed abuses at the highest levels of government and his investigative journalism deserves our support. If we allow the powerful to silence such journalists, our democracy and freedom is in peril. #StandWithGreenwald Permalink 9:53 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Terry Jones. Permalink 7:35 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@DollarBillBall “If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:14 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The key is to have a PDF of Abram & Steg. at all times, in all places. pic.twitter.com/wiCxXtiVIv Permalink 7:07 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Workout du jour. (Plane ride) pic.twitter.com/tPxFexOcAW Permalink 6:44 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “It is a sign of weakness to avoid showing signs of weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:39 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A clear thread in the Tesla problem. https://twitter.com/tedstein/status/1219406746868953088   Permalink 3:58 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A person who can get public attention must never fight vendors who screwed them out of a sense of privilege; only out of obligation. https://twitter.com/piehead9/status/1219747489147969537   Permalink 3:42 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Lecktshuring birds how to fly? https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1219727714568916993   Permalink 3:10 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There is nothing more exhilarating than lifting something extremely heavy over your head. It requires maximal concentration. You lift with your neural system. Beats deadlifing. https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1219360661920264193   Permalink 1:58 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Bureaucrats, I was told, find my lectures very painful. https://twitter.com/ThornCharmer/status/1219710962011385856   Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Now that I am safely away I can say No. They are equal. No winner. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1219691427220901889   Permalink 11:14 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Yes I am still losing weight. https://twitter.com/unic_eng/status/1219654660514107392   Permalink 9:16 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #extremedeadlifting @mises #MiloofCroton pic.twitter.com/SoyGWCcbnc Permalink 7:08 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Eastern Mediterranean Cosmopolitanism, open-minded, multicultural, tolerant and localist, preceded Arabist Fascism, Arabist Monocultural Nationalism, Arabist intolerance and Westernphobia. #Localism #BringLebanonBackToTheMed #Cyprus Permalink 5:57 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@MarinaStavrou9 Same with people… https://twitter.com/RealEmirHan/status/1219193479009574913   Permalink 2:10 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I did not *really* concede that it was tastier than the Beiruti one! I was being polite to my hosts! Meanwhile proud to be present at the inauguration of the “Makridakis Center for BS Busting in Forecasting”, MCBBF, more politely called the “Makr Open Forecasting Center” MOFC https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1219547062146084864   Permalink 1:15 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Traditionally, Greco-Phoenicians & Greco-Syrians had a Greek/Graeco-Roman & a Semitic name. Taleb = “Philologos”, scholar. pic.twitter.com/CmBYfugxUm Permalink 2:18 PM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Lefkosia, the competition between Lebanese and Cypriot squid ink. ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ pic.twitter.com/Jaf601lvsm Permalink 11:26 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb An apology is (almost always) an expression of submission. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1219231958875570177   Permalink 4:31 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There are two types of apologies. One by people relieving their conscience. The other is by those who are caught. Never trust those who apologize after being caught. Permalink 4:15 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Same effect (and more efficient) then to source from Turkey rather than either locally or from some place w/ a strong currency, no @EHSANI22 ? https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1219217093675114496   Permalink 4:10 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I mean what is the origin; even in Heb it is quadri גִלגוּל Permalink 2:49 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/51E6R4PwSX Permalink 1:07 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Friends, what is the root of the quadri تدحرج ? Permalink 12:48 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Always think “meta” https://twitter.com/LoveAcid/status/1219080627045224449   Permalink 12:43 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “Nudging” by that ignorant @R_Thaler https://twitter.com/justinowings/status/1219059978121560064   Permalink 12:38 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Is ay7uko from the E. Aramaic ayko? pic.twitter.com/YN0fva1UfL Permalink 10:16 PM – 19 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Free markets eventually lead to free speech. Censorship by social media not compatible w/ free enterprise! Markets => Ideas, not reverse. ” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #markets Permalink 1:04 PM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Summary if discussion with Dan Azzi. 1) An explicit haircut reduces uncertainty. People are frozen; yuuge anxiety. 2) It is much much easier to scam atheists than religious people. The mind does not like a vacuum. Permalink 8:15 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A7uka visibly is only understood in the Koura valley. Permalink 3:32 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb SemiticPhilological Mysteries du Jour “He/it is (here)” Innahu (huna) انه هنا (Arabic), Hebrew הוא כאן Now where are these from? la7uwwé (hon) (Beirut) sha77hu (hown) (Keserwan) a7uka (hawwn) (North Lebanon) The a7uka is pretty strange. Permalink 2:21 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@bounassif_rabih @nntaleb @businessinsider they do not mention the fact that you refused the refund without fair treatment to all other customers. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-hell-help-tesla-customer-accidentally-spent-4333-2020-1   Permalink 11:33 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The worse problem is that probability uncertainty creates fat tails REGARDLESS of the environment https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.00277.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/O2jtxxZLCj”>  pic.twitter.com/O2jtxxZLCj Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I mean IN ADDITION to ergodicity there is the substitution of integrals when translated from artificial constructs into real life. The error is explicitly made by nudgeboy Thaler and Phil the rat Tetlock https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4zx3JyfAvY”>  pic.twitter.com/4zx3JyfAvY Permalink 5:25 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The main problem is that there is no such thing as explicit bets with known probabilities in real life. Only in shit papers like @R_Thaler read by ignorant psychologists. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WW3qwcRV6g”>  pic.twitter.com/WW3qwcRV6g Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Watch the thread where nudgeboy @R_Thaler w/a “Nobel” is being taken to shreds by probabilists & quants. His Mickey Mouse™ framework cannot handle dynamics, time, hence he can’t get #ergodicity. Behavioral Economics is dead. I mean, dead. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1218356464034689024   Permalink 4:14 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) One TV intervention per decade, so far. My summary and solutions are here, with the TV lecture at USJ. I explained and introduced the notion of “Ponzi” & the train left the station. My summary is here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU   Permalink 4:01 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) It is just that I am not interested in TV crap/conferences to minimize noise. Nor am I interested in selfies with rioters. #Lebanon #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I can understand pple blaming me for not being in Lebanon during these difficult times… …except that I am in Lebanon. Indeed we should blame the diaspora pundits for lecturing & bullshitting w/o coming to show their face #skininthegame. I’ve been coming back every 3-4 w. Permalink 3:48 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is how one can skip the limit by the summation/integral inequality pic.twitter.com/kIyVyAgb1F Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Typo. I am integrating from 0^n not 1^n pic.twitter.com/jAeyKDAuIB Permalink 3:02 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Here is my solution. There is an alternative by @hvairinhos pic.twitter.com/bYj1c1sAb7 Permalink 2:57 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 2:42 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@mikeandallie 2/3 if you follow @nntaleb ‘s writing, you’ll probably find this paragraph in the story to be particularly interesting: pic.twitter.com/WV2aSUIo33 Permalink 6:13 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb #localism From a #RWRI alumni https://twitter.com/diomavro/status/1218219039706710018   Permalink 2:57 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is a very, very, very unfair competition. Even if the squid comes from the same waters. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1218428997224292352   Permalink 2:55 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Math du Jour: a tricky limit pic.twitter.com/DDyu6Ci91T Permalink 1:18 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb When I say @R_Thaler is the outlier fellow who got very, very far in life knowing nothing about probability. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1218391685274750979   Permalink 12:16 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Just as “political science” doesn’t have any science, “think tanks” are for people who don’t and can’t think.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:47 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@_barrelrider @nntaleb Evidence they say. https://www.wsj.com/articles/98-6-degrees-fahrenheit-isnt-the-average-any-more-11579257001   Permalink 4:11 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@calanmcdonald Thanks for escalating this @nntaleb. Same issue happened to me. Put phone in pocket, in 2 minutes got charged $13k for upgrades. That was Dec 28th. Local Tesla service center in Agoura has been fantastic in getting back to me with updates, but they seem stuck w/ Tesla Fremont. Permalink 4:07 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Volatility is good, risk is not.” | “Only the hyper-paranoid survive.” | nailing 2 #RWRI -lessons with one strip | @nntaleb & Co. For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   For my books https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/MBWYCjq6d6″>  pic.twitter.com/MBWYCjq6d6 Permalink 9:35 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Tinkering: fresh squid ink broth pic.twitter.com/2T49rdoyd0 Permalink 5:19 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Being rich is great for the wise (optionality), but a curse for the suckers as people prey on them & hijack their preferences. https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   Permalink 5:13 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is incredible how many problems money can create. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1217920978723975189   Permalink 4:55 PM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb How your ideas become #Lindy https://twitter.com/philosophytweet/status/1217830140039790592   Permalink 7:57 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ingogun/status/1217825162139226113?s=20   Permalink 7:55 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@henrizaq Xaɕiiɕet le xruuf e rrekmė Ḍ Ṣ Ṭ hii mec bel xarf, bel masnad elli baɔd el xarf @lebaneselingui1 le mɔallem Rojėė ɕelu diraasė mfaṣṣlė ɔan hayda l mawḍuuɔ W biyɕuul li biymayyez ط ܛ Ṭ ɔan T ܬ ت Huu l masnad yalli waraaha Metel Ta= تا ܬܐ W Tɑ= طا ܛܐ #ɕalef #leggetna Permalink 5:33 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “”Start by being warm, pleasant, & generous w/every person you meet; but if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him; & if he messes w/you, remember to keep messing w/him long after he has forgotten about it”. Silver Rule of Fat Tony in #SkinInTheGame” Permalink 4:26 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb #Localism https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1217779770794151937   Permalink 4:16 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This UN imbecile wants to grant more powers to #RiadPonzi? https://twitter.com/UNJanKubis/status/1217354961329250305   Permalink 2:06 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A lot of pple think one has to be pro or anti-Tesla. Life is nuanced! I love my Tesla, but customer service is terrible. (Used to be great but degraded sharply over the past 2 y. When I bought the car they used to come to you for repairs. No more). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1066322788657610752?s=20   Permalink 5:00 PM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Fi honik apologist la #RiadPonzi esmo الدكتور جواد خليل صالح المهن Fi 7ada bya3ref mino? Ma 3an lé2i bi Aachen. #lebanonprotests #لبنان_ينتفض pic.twitter.com/py8Jnl3Vhg Permalink 4:15 PM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Elon @elonmusk, your Customer Support at Tesla is even worse than I claimed last time. It is an insult to your customers. pic.twitter.com/3HZ2YSjigS Permalink 7:39 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/3VB7qrF4xF Permalink 4:35 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In other words, treating individuals as members of groups necessarily implies NO variance between individuals in that group. Permalink 4:23 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA I state that it both unethical & unscientific to look at a person’s population traits rather his/her own –both a sampling problem & racism. Treat individuals as individuals not as a members of a group. pic.twitter.com/nE2eHvup5r Permalink 4:12 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “Caused by” of course here should be “may have been caused by” Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Connection to localism: small fires reduce connectivity. Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb @black_swan_man pic.twitter.com/cxeE3224jv Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb FOREST FIRES IN AUSTRALIA: Caused by irresponsible bureaucrats creating chaos by seeking stability. #Antifragile has sections on forest fires & ancestral heuristics (s.a. cultural burning) that “make no sense” to ignorant nudgeboys Sunstein & Thaler & scientistic bureaucrats. https://twitter.com/tompccs/status/1216755462265352193   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sYHYpm3Udh”>  pic.twitter.com/sYHYpm3Udh Permalink 9:41 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “As a general rule, most “regrets” after one is caught’s aren’t regrets about having committed the action, but regrets about having been caught. Apologies count only when they are spontaneous, coming out of deep principles. Otherwise they are just an expression of submission.” Permalink 9:08 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Definition Du Jour An intellectual is a designation for someone who, should she or he stopped writing, will never be read again. Permalink 4:34 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Beirut is an unusual place. Ads now target rioters. pic.twitter.com/VZCQUa8FWd Permalink 12:47 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Beirut squid ink. No rice, no pasta, just squid in its ink. The best. Everything is 100% local. pic.twitter.com/wGBp5ZeyHH Permalink 6:08 AM – 14 Jan 2020

@JeanMarcMjbr From the peculiarities of the Lebanese language Eng: Sunrise Fre: Lever du soleil Ar: شروق الشمس Ita: Levata del sole Lebanese: Tiiz d-daww Permalink 3:07 AM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) One of my summaries explaining how Phil-the-Rat Tetlock’s @ptetlock’s comments on forecasting, tails & GMOs are verbalisms, that is, BS. (From Book. Paper coming out soon in Int Journal of Forecasting.) pic.twitter.com/erjK2bFhNX Permalink 10:54 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb OK, OK, people are figuring out how Nudgeboy Thaler et al. /Behavioral Econ is pseudoscience. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-13/behavioral-economics-latest-bias-seeing-bias-wherever-it-looks   Permalink 10:48 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb How to get out of the credulity rut (regression discontinuity edition): Getting beyond whack-a-mole « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/13/how-to-get-out-of-the-credulity-rut-regression-discontinuity-edition-getting-beyond-whack-a-mole/#.Xhys4ec_otU.twitter   Permalink 9:46 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@tompccs “But local authorities have forbidden them from cultural burning when they’ve asked for permission.” Cultural practices, including religous ritual, are #antifragile @nntaleb https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51043828   Permalink 8:14 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb BS BUSTING DU JOUR: Vernaculars are not لهجة, that is, a corrupted form of Classical Arabic, as is commonly taught in schools. @Safaitic https://www.academia.edu/38100372/Al-Jallad._A_Manual_of_the_Historical_Grammar_of_Arabic   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/MlvOHALtSm”>  pic.twitter.com/MlvOHALtSm Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The only EMPIRICAL test is the real world, corrected for circularity (test takers get jobs). I looked at the data IQ-income. No real association outside clinical situations. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1216722389112885248?s=20   Permalink 6:24 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@HarryDCrane The fallacy of the “open science” movement is its quest to standardize everything. What has happened with standardized testing is happening in science. Rewards those who can follow instructions – usually not people with highly original ideas. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1216487881864359936   Permalink 6:05 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Another point about IQ idiots. They think that “correlation” is an “empirical” result. CORRELATION IS NOT AN “EMPIRICAL RESULT”, but a math construct that is only informative under specific assumptions, not met with IQ. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 1) Actually the result is older. 2) This is not an IQ test, but IQ style standardization of performance. Point is that you can train (or the environment can train) people at producing such results in a non ecological way. 3) The deeper problem is that we DONT know future demands Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb French philosophy textbooks misattribute it to Montaigne: “philosopher, c’est apprendre a mourir”, who himself (not really knowing Greek) misattributed to Cicero (Tota enim philosophorum vita, ut ait idem, commentatio mortis) (Standard textbook for bac. https://la-philosophie.com/philosopher-apprendre-mourir-montaigne  ) https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1216681798429741057   Permalink 5:16 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb YUUGE RESULT OF 2019: a chimp beats humans at some kind of IQ style tests. It is not just IQ: this is the defeat of standardized testing, university admission, school evaluation. They select people good at *some* tests. https://twitter.com/ThornCharmer/status/1214110157900275713   Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Coach Rippetoe’s @CoachRippetoe minimum effective dose of training. Explains the difference between exercise and training. “Not the same ting”. https://startingstrength.com/article/the-minimum-effective-dose-of-training   Permalink 5:40 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In the hierarchy Erudite>>Philosopher (Analytic)> scholar>>academic>>”thinker”> “intellectual”>journalist (real type)>psycholophaster> BSVendor… Among the “conservatives”, Scruton was on top & there are few above BS vendor to replace him. Murray & Peterson are junk thought. Permalink 2:43 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Since Sir Roger’s interview trap, I’ve decided to record all my conversations with journalists. pic.twitter.com/2LkCGk6NSK Permalink 2:34 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The solution The generalization is still running pic.twitter.com/JRHXTKqvaW Permalink 2:10 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Something as trivial as standard deviation is misunderstood by users and statisticians. pic.twitter.com/5zlGXoSk8X Permalink 1:02 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Roger Scruton. Your memory and your work will be remembered. Ad vitam aeternam. Fiercely independent, he was one of the last thinkers who used their own head. Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Imperial Romans were still East Meds/Anatolians… Caesar looked like a barber in Damascus or the newly elected mayor in cental Anatolian village. https://twitter.com/TrimontiumTrust/status/1216083085198012416   Permalink 6:40 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb To repeat from my previous thread on Empires’ business model: Regime change is NOT the reason empires intervene; rather to squash defiance & force submission. U.S. not asking for regime change in S. Arabia. It wanted one in Lybia, Syria. Defiance weakens the business model. pic.twitter.com/bY6bNQvE7N Permalink 4:52 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb هيدا ضرب زكا. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216114167108849665   Permalink 3:36 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In the past, I would have reacted more favorably towards/defended Iran. But I am waking up every day angry with the regime over the DIRECT killing/execution of >1500 Iranian & >300 Iraqi Shiite kids. Systematic Killing of protesters … I can’t bear. Permalink 12:37 PM – 11 Jan 2020

@TrimontiumTrust A breathtaking reconstruction of Julius Caesar taken from his bust in the Vatican Museums. See more on their Facebook page here https://www.facebook.com/606887369692297/videos/vb.606887369692297/2570394953205942/?type=2&theater   https://twitter.com/sUAtateslier/status/1215693850708185090   Permalink 11:42 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is honorable to own one’s mistake; particularly one that carries tragic consequences. However, blaming another country for one’s mistake, in addition, is shoddy & an insult to the victims. It is like a drunk driver blaming the traffic light manufacturer for a fatal accident. https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1215847283381755914   Permalink 11:31 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “In any profession, nine tenth of the people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing.” Bed of Procrustes, 3rd Ed. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1215819831351660544   Permalink 10:00 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@swerengensky HOW TO HANLDE AN EVALUATION FORM WHILE BEING REVIEWED BY YOUR BOSS. Source: a truly antifragile ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. Location: Mediterranean Sea. pic.twitter.com/o9Q4zzmAsz Permalink 9:14 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Marx’s theory of alienation is correct: (Workers separated from the product) This applies to the chain: executives are punished by desk work & meetings, etc. for 60 hours a week, then forced to retire which is a death sentence. There is no life but the #artisanal life Permalink 7:05 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 1)Modern publishing is not #Lindy (ugly books); we have the capability to make books ornate. 2) Authors can derive g. satisfaction writing WHILE typesetting. Much like painters & artisans. Division of labor kills the soul https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   https://twitter.com/erik_kwakkel/status/1181962553628483584   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/60EFWqkeGo”>  pic.twitter.com/60EFWqkeGo Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There was perhaps no Soleimani threat (at least nothing new). And there was no need for it. Trump borrowed an old Persian trick: put the head of a horse in the enemy’s bed. https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49   Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 5) There was perhaps no Soleimani threat (at least nothing new) & no need for it to intervene. What Trump did was directly borrowed from an old Iranian trick: put an horse in the enemy’s bed. https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49   Permalink 4:42 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb DAVOS MEMORY: I called it the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers). 5 y ago, their head of communication @amonck tried to smear me, saying I didn’t mention Popper in The Black Swan (Popper is mentioned 53 times). They are even incompetent at smearing. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1089160889503285253   Permalink 2:32 PM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This public shaming is the most effective use of the minority rule: ethics is highly asymmetric! https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb What makes it easy is that Lebanon is small (5 mil) and Beirut is about 1 mil. There is no Washington DC or Brasilia for politicians to hide. Permalink 10:36 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb VERY EFFECTIVE STRATEGY IN #LebanonProtests Shame politicians & bureaucrats by booing them in restaurants & public places. It is yuuuugely effective. pic.twitter.com/iGPmzpVaaD Permalink 10:31 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb MY LIST, 1 +Loeve, 2 vol +Karatzas & Shreve +Cover and Thomas, El of Inf Th +Embrechts et al (or De Haan and Fereira) on EVT +Gnedenko & Kolmogorov- Limits +Doob Stochastic Processes +Uchaikin & Zolotarev or Samorodinsky & Taqqu on Stable +Billingsley: Prob. & Measure Borel pic.twitter.com/VP4yHv7EvZ Permalink 10:25 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@polemitis Thrilled to have @nntaleb keynoting the launch of the MOFC on January 21st @UNIC_ENG. Open to the public, but please RSVP to mcompetitions@unic.ac.cy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1215669836212133889   Permalink 8:29 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Jan 21, the official launch in Lefkosia (Nicosia) of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center, MOFC (a.k.a. Makridakis BS debunker in forecasting MBSDF). Cypriot & Phoenician (white) wine, local squid ink. pic.twitter.com/72UTvMmx9e Permalink 8:20 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@chasechandler Hmm…Where have I heard this before? A paper from BCG – “Thinking Biologically” – reads like a summary of Antifragile or #RWRI lecture. @normonics @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ioX4bu21SX Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 6) “Show me the man & I will find you the crime”. — Practically every executive & politician in Japan (& France) has as some side benefit been invited to stretch the law a little bit. Then “they” can use it when the person becomes bothersome. Gray areas become black or white. Permalink 7:36 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The fact is that Nissan lured Ghosn into coming to Japan; jumping bail for entrapment is fair game. And to see how vicious the system is: Nissan was the one doing surveillance on Ghosn when he was out on bail. Nissan, not the government. https://twitter.com/oztran/status/1215656273347112960?s=20   Permalink 7:30 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Negative forecasting via the #Lindy effect pic.twitter.com/Qcxszce6wN Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@nntaleb You can buy anyone. Well, almost. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1215258903912550401   Permalink 5:23 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we have women scholarships open for #RWRI 13 http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 4:21 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@JYuter Please remind me how the Jews fared under Communist Russia. https://twitter.com/jacobinmag/status/1214820785606610944   Permalink 2:36 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@yannispetro Modelling #Lindy as a stopping time. Thank you @nntaleb for the intuition! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1215056089517035521   Permalink 5:20 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Bingo https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1215066143519436801?s=20   Permalink 5:00 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I deny all involvement in the matter. I deny having ever tried to set him up. I deny, deny, deny. I am innocent. https://twitter.com/wolandov555/status/1215059700284149760?s=20   Permalink 4:46 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Among other things, the ONLY way to model #Lindy is via a stochastic process. It is probability, not statistics or, worse, “data science”. #ThingsToFinishIn2020 https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1215001345893253128   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/paXcqOxQf7″>  pic.twitter.com/paXcqOxQf7 Permalink 3:42 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Someone got Krugman to *deny* he uses child pornography. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1214991222009409536   Permalink 2:39 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@HarryDCrane It’s a sad state of affairs that majority of Statistic Depts in US have no more than 1 probabilist on faculty. And many have 0. Many PhD programs don’t even teach probability or stochastic processes anymore. Meaning next generation doesn’t learn it, or they take in math Dept. Permalink 12:04 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 3: In his defense, Trump started by trying to “negotiate” with the Persian regime. They said no. Then he rapidly saw they have relatively ZERO military power & shd start making them aware of it. He thinks he can one day make them an offer they can’t refuse. Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 2: Neocons with Platonic ideas & Hilarist interventionists are just nerds (IYIs) who never had a real job in their lives. They can’t figure out the game but promote it; thus have been ideal operators for the Millitary Complex. Permalink 8:11 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 1: Hanibal left the Italian Peninsula because the Senate in Carthage cut him off, with the message: “We’re not in that business”. Carthage was too profitable from trade and agriculture to follow the millitaristic route. Permalink 6:42 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) Plus charge the Europeans for protection. Recall an Empire’s military must be self-financing. Or perhaps, exit that model (Rand Paul style noninterventionism, to which I subscribe) Permalink 6:38 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) Iraq War had little to do w/anything but model consistency: as w/the Judean rebellion, punish insubordination/defiance, reward economic submission. Clarity of mind: Trump figured out THAT business model (i) REQUIRES direct punishment of Iranian Regime, or (ii) change model Permalink 6:36 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) U.S. has a greater relative military capability in history. Makes no sense: (i) w/o exacting protection money (Europe pays little even indirect), (ii) w/defiant states. Empires’ model is to crush defiant states, plunder & parade Vercingetorix, Zenobia,… Saddam. Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Thread on US/IRAN 1) An empire (say Rome) is built on an army that is self financing. Military supremacy generates income. Division of Specialization: If you are money-making (say Phoenicians) then you don’t need an army, you just pay whoever runs that business for protection. Permalink 5:52 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Finally, some clarity in my life. Manti, Shish Borek (my favorite), Kinkhali, Pelmeni, etc. all come from the Chinese steamed/fried dumplings that made NY worth living. https://twitter.com/ykomska/status/1213908289899126785   Permalink 2:57 PM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I love my Tesla. But service, when you need it… Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Tesla, @elonmusk, has to work on its customer service & service centers. I mean, really work on it. Permalink 9:03 AM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb What I am learning today is that unless the quote is fabricated, Einstein did not know about trial and error, or, for that matter, the problem of induction. https://twitter.com/gusskabbara/status/1214558489067966464   Permalink 7:13 AM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb As you get richer, you can feel safer, & don’t give a f**ck of what people think (if you invest safely). As you get more *prominent*, get an academic or political position or some accolade (Nobel prize), you are much more vulnerable as you have much further to fall. Permalink 1:13 PM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 (One more) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400   Permalink 1:04 PM – 6 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 10:41 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Not a general rule; but remember there have been at least 2000 funerals in Iraq and Iran (all Shiites) of kids killed by the regime. Permalink 9:10 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Crowds are complex. The more they mourn your departure, the more they welcome new policies. As with Nasser’s funeral, they say goodbuy to both him and his policies. Le roi est mort vive le roi. https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/1214223199166222336   Permalink 8:51 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump #SantaClaus #rally #protection pic.twitter.com/uGYUvN2kGS Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The final version. pic.twitter.com/mGeZuP5xgH Permalink 6:30 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The clarity of mind of pundits, journalists and political commentators discussing the Soleimani affair. pic.twitter.com/957DPvWfOG Permalink 6:19 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Here is my treatment of standard deviation/variance as a bogus metric even in the Gaussian world when scaled back in terms of informmation. pic.twitter.com/pIZbPrd9wx Permalink 5:45 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb (The original Latin expression was written by Ulpian in Berytus: Durum hoc est sed ita lex scripta est). Permalink 5:03 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb CLASSICISM DUJOUR Friends, looking for an ancient expression ~ mafia’s philosophical “it is what it is” (in The Irishman). In Latin: “dura lex sed lex”, in French: “c’est la vie”, or the great Mutanabbi’s يشتهي البحر ما لا تشتهي السفن Theremustbebetterones cc:@ArmandDAngour pic.twitter.com/w3ksNb7WXC Permalink 4:44 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@infernoxv Merry Christmas to my friends on the right calendar! Քրիստոս Ծնաւ և Յայտնեցաւ! Χριστός Γεννάται! Христос Рождаєтьсѧ! Christus Natus Est! Hristos se Naşte! وُلِد المسـيحُ، فَمَـجِّدُوه (Armenian icon, 18th century Madonna with Child and the 12 Apostles). pic.twitter.com/oomfr85r8o Permalink 1:25 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@BrankoMilan “very few people are able to create systems of thought that go across multiple disciplines and display internal coherence.” This was my conclusion re. @nntaleb system. And regularly, perhaps once a month, somebody writes me about that. http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-importance-of-talebs-system-from.html   Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) And the world is differentfromwhatitwasin 1979,1991,2004. Hypersonic missiles (the one that hit Soleimani) have compounded US military superiority via yuuuuge gains in precision. For Trump, very tempting to use. See the prophetic op-ed by @sns_1239 https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1212921826440962048?s=20   Permalink 3:04 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) PROXY WARS: For instance you cannot believe how sick & tired the Lebanese are of Iran wanting to use Lebanon to fight Israel; why the fuck don’t they fight directly w/o putting the #skininthegame of other countries’ innocent civilians and NOT one’s own? That was 2 weeks ago pic.twitter.com/U0TK9UeQLl Permalink 2:39 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) I believe in FULL noninterventionism. But if two countries or regimes want to fuck with one another, they must do so directly and without involving bystanders. #Localism Permalink 2:09 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Basically the indirect, proxy wars between the US & Iran were both offensive to the victims (Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc.) & allowed this indirect hostility to carry on for 4 decades! By threatening to directly hit Iran, Trump, forbetterorworse, is making it simple: war or peace https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1213835292756643850   Permalink 1:40 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Meanwhile we are not getting into this riddle for the inequality, rather the beautiful properties of the integral of x^x and its mystery! @joe_shipman Permalink 9:18 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1112690030135398400   Permalink 8:04 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Can Trump’s unpredictability and randomness of reactions be an effective foreign policy? From Fooled by Randomness (INCERTO, vol 1). How injecting uncertainty in your decision making is a potent deterrent as others don’t know how you OVERREACT. pic.twitter.com/9zrF6YPxqw Permalink 6:51 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@sean_a_mcclure https://twitter.com/sean_a_mcclure/status/1211127151908442113   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aaVmNDf9Bv”>  pic.twitter.com/aaVmNDf9Bv Permalink 4:58 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/jE14Nuj8EN Permalink 2:32 PM – 4 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Shiism, much like Christianity, is based on martyrdom. Someone in Washington doesn’t get it. #Soleimani Permalink 12:18 PM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is unfair to Naval as he limits stuff to his specialty. But basically, once a free person decides to act as a public judge he/she, should have no friends –just look at the world as a judge in a courthouse. Public “intellectuals” are usually propagandists. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1212527237003649024   Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I have no idea. Questions: what was Soleimani’s role in the repression of the Iraq riots? the Iran riots? I have no idea there as well. Thanks. https://twitter.com/HannesM1/status/1213078343287017475?s=20   Permalink 5:07 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is a matter of scale, @MaxAbrahms: – In a localist system with distributed agents (s.a. Qaeda, ISIS), decapitation is not effective by definition since there is no HEAD. – In a centralized one, it’s only effective where policy depends on a HEAD. Imagine history w/o Bonaparte https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1212930025273606145   Permalink 4:29 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@LTF_01 Truly a Roman among Greeks – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1212420139578036225   Permalink 1:26 PM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 5) I don’t know Ghosn & never socialize with people who like panache, glitz, and play hotshots while being on a salary. I don’t like his style (philistinic). But I think he is a highly capable man, will defend his right to defend himself & I respect him for his escape. Gabish? Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) No, I m not claiming Carlos Ghosn is innocent. My point is that Japan (a country of systematic coverups & feudal alliances) is NOT the place for the trial of foreigners Actually Japan is not the place for any trial & Highest mob involvement in the “legit” economy in the world Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity.” Permalink 3:29 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) No, no, I am not related to Carlos Ghosn. My mother’s family name is Ghosn but different origin: Greek Orthodox from the Saliba branch (Stavros) while Carlos Ghosn is Maronite. Permalink 7:01 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Remember that Ghosn’s arrest was a set-up by prosecutors and colluding Nissan people. It is fair to say “f**ck you” to you in return and enjoy nice fresh organic & Lebanese wine tabbouleh in Achrafieh (near my grandparents & parents house). Permalink 4:54 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb So you are proud of your legal system that puts people in cages waiting for them to break down physically & emotionally? Whatever one can blame Ghosn for, I am proud of his escape and the way he say “f**k you” to you & your system. Bravo Carlos G. –and especially Carole! https://twitter.com/MasuzoeYoichi/status/1212343774879182848   Permalink 3:52 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@GuruAnaerobic Poll: Who are treated the worst? Permalink 3:34 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Curious events in 2019: Moscow airport, 10 religious Jews, thinking I was Persian, approached me in Farsi; wanted me to read Cyrillic for the gate for “Tehron” No English,No Russian Found myself speaking Hebrew w/Iranian Jews & took them to their gate Stange Iranian tolerance Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/PTR0tI4V3G Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Most productive Jan 1 ever: finished the Glossary. Explained the Pinker Problem (naive empiricism, confirmatory positivism or the inference of the imbecile). pic.twitter.com/zexlXtMxfC Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS of 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/991133488198897666   Permalink 10:59 AM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2- The entire problem of Japan is that they specialized in perfecting what others invent, which can only take you so fat. Traders failure is not accepted; there is yuuuge number of traders who turn into Madoff after hiding a loss then do a hara kiri. https://twitter.com/RobRastapop/status/1212386078553853957?s=20   Permalink 10:37 AM – 1 Jan 2020

@BLebnene W hay riznemit l 2020 saarit jehze! Kill shaher fii matal Libnene 3anno, w suura min turaasna Llibnene, w akiid iyyem l esbuu3. Yalle bi7ebb yitba3a w ysherika ma3na! W yin3aad 3laykon w nshalla tkuun sinit kher 3al kill. Nbusto llayle w diiro belkon! https://drive.google.com/open?id=1E82yjOSx_2cmBZq58l1nDH8I4yNI4SRo   https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1211057051721437185   Permalink 6:55 AM – 31 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RACISM SYMPOSIUM — Friends, running Twitter symposia around topics in PRINCIPIA POLITICA. The comments will be integrated in the text. https://academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xwDsu9ExHJ”>  pic.twitter.com/xwDsu9ExHJ Permalink 4:41 AM – 31 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Book being here https://fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm   Permalink 12:33 PM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb So Mr Warburton @philosophybites you don’t feel dishonorable promoting a plagiarized book, after being made aware of it? https://twitter.com/philosophybites/status/1204215650635268096   Permalink 12:26 PM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This regression’s sole aim is to make IQ Eugenists and Quilettists look good. https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1211682959994081280   Permalink 8:33 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb strict Permalink 7:47 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb In addition to SPURIOUS correlation from data insufficiency under fat tails, correlation requires strick linear relationship Y=a+b X. Otherwise uninformative. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 7:43 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 My Lecture in Lebanese “From Ponzi to Localism” at the USJ, on Leb TV, during the riots. It angered, among others, #RiadPonzi and the bankers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU&lc=UgyptrdHQVyeh_UIpvR4AaABAg   Permalink 6:10 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I wrote this in 2007: How can you tell a cultural philistine? At the Kulback-Leibler differential with the common culture. pic.twitter.com/H0qksdgcBM Permalink 12:49 PM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, here are (some of) the books I enjoyed in 2019. pic.twitter.com/UqarbFAPJ6 Permalink 12:10 PM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Tell me what you don’t read, I will tell you who you are. Bed of Procrustes 3rd ed. https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1211329751715065861   Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Tell me what you read, I will tell you who you are! These are largely newspaper articles under bindings. The probability of any of these books surviving a decade (except perhaps Darlymple & Murakami) so tiny. Not #Lindy #ReadRealBooks https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1211033245812441091   Permalink 7:28 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@benkunz Remind me to never pick a fight with Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Here he knocks down the very premise of IQ tests, apropos of the NYT op-ed scandal. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1211056571427540994   Permalink 7:02 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “You will never know if someone is an asshole until he becomes rich.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:10 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1118272590416613376   Permalink 3:43 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082063513961533440   Permalink 3:41 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb One of the myths is that the “rich gets richer”. It is almost always different people who are getting richer, owing to rotation at the top. The richest 1% of 2019 are not quite the same as the richest 1% of 2009, etc. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   #ergodicity https://twitter.com/fionncoll/status/1211234632508878854   Permalink 3:38 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@largbae Douma chemical weapons attack was staged… @nntaleb called this back when it happened, Assad sucks but he had no reason to undermine his own cause… So what was the real reason for the attack? https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1210564199161708545   Permalink 8:01 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@fexplosiong Thank you for this! pic.twitter.com/vT2qXKVNSf Permalink 3:42 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb FORGOT A BIG HIGHLIGHT OF 2019 https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:49 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Saar 3am yktob Gebran @Gebran_Bassil bil Lebnéné (Kn3ané) lght l balad. Bravo w mamnunin! #Localism https://twitter.com/Gebran_Bassil/status/1210866433959313408   Permalink 2:38 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This is going viral: I’ve written in the past 5 articles for the NYT under pressure from publisher. I hated the compromise. The optimal strategy is the #barbell: Twitter + Books (+math appendices) https://twitter.com/ByYourLogic/status/1210970412177330178   Permalink 11:30 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb …which is why I insist that I’ve written only ONE single piece, a book (Incerto, 5 volumes) and its technical endnotes and appendix (Technical Incerto, TK so far 2 volumes, comprising papers). Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb In #FooledByRandomness I explain an aspect of it: the more frequent the sampling the higher the noise. pic.twitter.com/czFwBbqrm8 Permalink 8:47 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The mechanism in #Antifragile: spurious correlations (and “results”) are convex to number of variables. pic.twitter.com/NlgPLPP2Un Permalink 8:40 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Recall that the more information you get, the more disproportionately higher the ratio of noise to signal. Say, a little bit of information, 50% noise; a lot, 99.9% noise. Likewise, in any field, the higher the number of academic publications the higher the ratio of garbage. Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/qUiEGYJ4a7 Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb One more result for 2019″: What You See and What You Don’t See https://www.academia.edu/41450198/What_You_See_and_What_You_Dont_See_The_Hidden_Moments_of_a_Probability_Distribution   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/AR4TP5iCt2″>  pic.twitter.com/AR4TP5iCt2 Permalink 5:25 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Among the best skills for real life: the ability to be bored early. Permalink 3:03 PM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1180123451446743040   Permalink 10:51 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Last piece of research of 2019: PCA maps for genetics https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   Permalink 10:47 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@MaxAbrahms The US attacked Syria for a chemical attack by Assad last year. But official #OPCW scientists who investigated the event didn’t find evidence the Syrian military used chemical weapons. The media has chosen to ignore this story & fire its own journalists who try to report on it. Permalink 8:03 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I have severe Bullshitphobia. I was told it was uncurable. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1210587390848458753   Permalink 7:48 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1183796584225619972   Permalink 5:43 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1175669049990275072   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1166281708825645056   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1163544326829412352   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160246858977095680   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1170742156023275521   Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1180589233641181185   Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1172864041016090624   Permalink 5:40 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1180252513095897089   Permalink 5:39 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ErnestBoehm/status/1210254177479335938   Permalink 9:41 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Psychologists use “IQ” to politely put people & entire races in boxes with the label “idiots”, and stick them there for a lifetime. They ruin people’s careers and potentials. Politely. I call psychologists (& IQ mountebanks) idiots to their face. Not politely.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1210239645486919680?s=20   Permalink 8:54 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@henrizaq ɕeza baddaq Lebnėėn yṣiir yecbah Swiisra Ballec bel xarf. #ɕalef Permalink 8:25 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Preliminary result for entropy based genetic maps. Might change the way we view distances between population and rates of inbreeding. pic.twitter.com/R30uedJCP8 Permalink 6:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Edited pic.twitter.com/wO4bLMUMN1 Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HpIDw9gK6Y Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Rule 1: The more you overreact w/some, the less you need to react w/others. As w/the IRS: increase the penalty & lower your audit rate. Rule 2: when a fraud fucks w/you, say @charlesmurray, @mpigliucci, @sapinker, @SamHarrisOrg or @Noahpinion, keep busting them for decades! Permalink 4:50 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMurry/status/1210160773634412545?s=20   Permalink 3:41 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If anyone tries to bully you, there is one and one way to react: ignore or overreact. By overreact I mean, really, overreact. https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1209869444626952192   Permalink 2:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Every Christmas I need to make the point that no, the Christ was not a … Since I wrote this piece we got overwhelming DNA evidence during 2019 that Southern Levantines had indistinguishable DNA from that of Imperial Romans. https://link.medium.com/5wC4Ie9QB2   Permalink 11:47 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb And if he read the Torah by himself (possible but not likely): Hebrew was NOT spoken anymore. Like Latin in the 19th C. Permalink 11:25 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Coptic was never a lingua franca, Latin was only *spoken* in Beirut and Baalbeck (outside the legions) and he might have had a smattering of Greek which was limited to coastal/urban Phoenicia. Permalink 11:22 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb He was the son of a carpenter. One thing I’ve learned over a long life: when someone knows French they make sure to make you aware of it. Permalink 11:15 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb (Cont) plus the Galilean dialect. Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Only Aramaic https://twitter.com/astratelates/status/1209898634302517251   Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HEAVY TAILS 2019 pic.twitter.com/zIJH0vqR9G Permalink 9:29 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Messiah meant “anointed” (with holy oil). For Jesus Christ it was metaphoric, replaced by baptism. pic.twitter.com/gTdmN0Y93y Permalink 6:18 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb BS vendors should be spared today. This is an appeal to members of the *probabilists BS busting Squad* & other #RWRI activists to refrain from exposing people owing to the spirit of the holidays. Permalink 6:13 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb And in Semitic languages, the word Christ (Ms(h)7)משיח has the same root as ms7 “to wipe”, משחה, “ointment”, to surface/area (masaa7a مساحة)… https://twitter.com/JAJafri/status/1209418574248452096   Permalink 5:33 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Merry Christmas everyone! Χρόνια Πολλά! Permalink 2:59 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Variance is not a good measure of noise in a system. How it scales with entropy. pic.twitter.com/f2e1TFTIJx Permalink 1:26 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@AhsanDeliri Lessons of 2019: 1) Correlation isn’t close to what you think it actually is. 2) Most people don’t know statistics let alone probability. 3) It’s not that field is lacking earnest students. It’s that the field is taught wrong all around. 4) A second rate statistician is deadly Permalink 7:51 PM – 24 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The same with infinite expectations under Fat Tails! https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1209476628050587648   Permalink 2:35 PM – 24 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Dead people are very, very good at keeping secrets. https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1209108187741212672   Permalink 3:33 PM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 5) When people deny they “unconditional support” it means they “unconditionally support”. The Iranians killed ~1500 kids. Even if the number if off, it is immoral to stay silent, @snarwani, & even more immoral to blindly claim Western propaganda. pic.twitter.com/3d9yMBYdHo Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Dec 2019

@Marwa_Laham And the good news is we have an Association of Small depositors ( All of us who have been venting about banks). Check it out and share it and RT it please. #كرمال_كلنا_نعيد https://forms.gle/FvZJoHLUSceiK2hC7   #لبنان_ينتفض #لبنان #إليسا ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kiIFeB2FyY”>  pic.twitter.com/kiIFeB2FyY Permalink 9:13 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb M5 is launched. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1209153609432211457   Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb To clarify & answer comments: 1) Correlation is a measure for linear relationships, but it is nonlinear in its interpretation (and non additive). 2) A simple example of why correlation doesn’t work under nonlinearity, and why MI always works. pic.twitter.com/Rv3wXpOSJT Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SITG https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1208831048026509312   Permalink 6:31 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@MaxAbrahms Reuters says about 1,500 people were killed during the November demonstrations in #Iran based on info gathered from security forces, morgues, hospitals and coroners’ offices. This estimate is much higher than previous estimates. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-protests-specialreport-idUSKBN1YR0QR   Permalink 4:39 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The other effect of PRINCIPIA POLITICA: Article 3 “Public institutions must have an expiration date.” A Russian “UNIVERSITY 2035” was created, aiming to dissolve in 2035. Met them in Kazan. Focus:digital skills Joint by Novosibirsk State U,Tomsk State, FarEast Federal U pic.twitter.com/hCYKjN7fzg Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This came verbatim from PRINCIPIA POLITICA. https://twitter.com/RustedOak/status/1105133928703295488   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cqS0v4nOTJ”>  pic.twitter.com/cqS0v4nOTJ Permalink 3:53 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Footnote 2: Blocked more than 3000 people on Twitter, but picked up > 100,000 new followers during 2019. Permalink 3:07 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Footnote 1: Since it became fashionable to show such a thing, here is a list of prescription drugs I took in 2019. pic.twitter.com/4Ud0Mc6ddx Permalink 2:51 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb We are introducing simple transformations to evaluate genetic distances and homozygocity. pic.twitter.com/pqZCmqR7fc Permalink 2:44 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb A severe problem with genetic/IQ studies: correlation is highly nonlinear: a correlation of 3/4 is much, much closer to 0 than to 1. Which shows why the overly used “heritability index” is nonsense. I wonder why these IQ idiots didn’t realize it before. Psychology =astrology pic.twitter.com/ODu1U3knI4 Permalink 2:33 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntalebbot “The traits I respect are erudition and the courage to stand up when half-men are afraid for their reputation. Any idiot can be intelligent.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Peterson, charisma? Peterson, like most psycholophasters, gives the impression of a dithering hypochondriac with an insomnia problem, having serious trouble getting his BS in order, & who regularly implores with endless speeches his girlfriends/partners to not dump him . https://twitter.com/lyleleander/status/1208865976952877057   Permalink 2:11 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Thanks to the works of @Safaitic and @PhDniX we can confirm that whatever it is a dialect OF, and whatever category you may wish to classify it in, Levantine is not a dialect OF Fus7a (Classical Arabic). It is a PARALLEL language to Fus7a. https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1208858506713075713   Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb “Organized NYC deadlifting antiBS probabilists squad” (Former student and RWRI instructor) https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1208776824093847553   Permalink 8:06 AM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Pschologists classifying “IQ deniers” as a pathology. I am a “psychology denier”, that is “bullshit denier”. https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/950771974632067073   Permalink 7:21 AM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 19- Finally, I did not compromise once in 2019. Happy Holidays for all. Permalink 3:28 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 17- Lost (some) money short HLF. But stayed long Gold, etc. 18- Found some severe & disturbing logical errors in PRINCIPIA POLITICA (which I incidentally started in 2019). Fixed quietly, so far. Permalink 3:24 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 14-Found great space for #RWRI across the sidewalk where a famous mafia don was wacked (Sparks Steakhouse), w/one of his family members now part of the #RWRI club. Feels safe. 15-Ate no seed oil 16-Feel plenty of gratitude towards my friends, esp. those who corrected errors Permalink 3:16 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 11-Blocked >3000 people on Twitter, using highly *Bayesian* tricks. 12-Ate large meals with the BS Busting Brigade connected to #RWRI, made new friends. 13-Had charlatans s.a. Sam Harris, Charles Murray, etc. publicly complaining about me. Permalink 2:57 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 8-Was subjected to 6 smear campaigns from 6 separate sources, including #Lebanon bankers w/smear video from PR firm. No effect. I need more enemies in 2020, to confuse them. 9-Lost 7 lbs but year isn’t over. 10-Tried & failed to learn Hindi. Everyone speaks English. Permalink 2:41 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 4- Published 6 papers (single auth), wrote 10 in total, 1 in epistemology 5- Increased the pushpress by 25lbs in spite of injury 6- Lectshured (& ate) in Serbia, Estonia, & Tatarstan 7- Went on #Lebanon TV after 10y to expose #RiadPonzi, introduced Ponzi term. Riad was upset Permalink 2:31 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 2019, Personal Review 1-Managed to Yuugely upset monocultures: both anti-Iran & pro-Iran shills; both pro-Trump & anti-Trump; both the “left” & the Neo-nazis/Quillette/eugenists. 2-Busted IQ as a fraud,on stat/math grounds. 3-Finished Stat Cons Fat Tails, Tech Incerto vol 1 Permalink 2:18 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. Cramming several #RWRI -insights into one comic strip => scalability – static vs dynamic – business school BS. @nntaleb Free stuff here https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Support me here https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mvpfoiQvLv”>  pic.twitter.com/mvpfoiQvLv Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@DennisHXu “You do not create dynamic equality just by raising the level of those at the bottom, but rather by making the rich rotate.” https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   @nntaleb’s article on inequality is the most important and least well understood idea of the present socio-economic discourse. Permalink 9:04 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, looks like I need to give up the Medieval style with boxes (left) in favor of the right version as it becomes rapidly unwieldy. Is there a serious loss of aesthetics? pic.twitter.com/SgGVAzxDtU Permalink 4:51 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb An infallible marker of crummy intellect is when someone cherry picks from authors long dead for retrospective bigoteering. @RichardDawkins is my model of the BS vendor. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1208353116367794177   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UrjhDnF9Xw”>  pic.twitter.com/UrjhDnF9Xw Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Better interword spacing pic.twitter.com/R2byiWhKmn Permalink 3:34 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile the Technical Incerto, Vol 1: hard to get the #lindy 2-column aesthetics with a 6 by 9 book, which requires 8½ by 11. Equations and graphs make it difficult to flow properly. pic.twitter.com/Hotlu4x371 Permalink 2:19 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Colored text is #Lindy. Precedes printing. Everything needs rich aesthetics. I am following the model in PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://twitter.com/BLMedieval/status/1208311142784782336   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0OVcBR8kRG”>  pic.twitter.com/0OVcBR8kRG Permalink 1:26 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 4) I exposed @snarwani for unconditional support for the Iranian regime. This imbecile @Doranimated is worse; doesn’t get a Leb PM needs approval by ALL factions (like Hariri). Think tank pple have no academic freedom (owned by funders); almost all are subpar failed academics. Permalink 1:05 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 3) And the fellow has the logical abilities of a goldfish in contaminated water. Geopolitics shills are unemployable losers incapable of reasoning outside the script: if it is not A, then it is B, to counter other shills saying if not B then A. #Localism https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1208131896556707840?s=20   Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The best representation of Fat Tony, via Fat Tony Salerno in The Irishman. pic.twitter.com/EvsuonfGha Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Dec 2019

Silver Rule, Charles Murray, Localism, LEBANON, Mariana Mazzucato, UBI, REITS, I MADE A MISTAKE, Corruption, Peterson, IQ, Stefan Molyneux, Aquavit, Swedes | Twitter

I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals.
Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev.

@TalebWisdom “Complaints don’t deliver complaints, they mostly reveal your weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:49 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hint: The Golden Rule is NOT Lindy. See Isocrates’ rule. https://twitter.com/fpingham/status/1192417188113764352?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Phku3tSBjz”>  pic.twitter.com/Phku3tSBjz Permalink 4:26 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Tonight’s Lecktshur at @LAUNYHQ, I present the problem of the Golden rule: intrusive, vs. Silver Rule. #Localism= Silver Rule, rejection of golden rule. #Lebanon Nobody should ever force you into something “because it is good for them”. pic.twitter.com/gkIpz0ivOk Permalink 4:17 AM – 7 Nov 2019

@Mangan150 Big Food – the largest global food corporations – and what they make. They turn cheap sugar, seed oils, and refined grains into profit. A big impetus behind the vegan push. pic.twitter.com/36OpQRzNFl Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Nov 2019

@thegeforum Nassim Taleb says the hedge fund industry is the correct model for investment management… “dont tell me what you recommend… tell me what you own”. Hedge fund managers eat their own cooking! This from a man not accustomed to giving compliments! pic.twitter.com/0XWhr32TiZ Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating *why* you had to say it. Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/stalingrad_poor/status/1191740023265091584   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@joebrownheretic When a P/L is involved, there is an incentive to make things as simple as possible. When a P/L is not involved, the incentive is to make things as complicated as possible. – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Stalingrad_Poor/status/1191740023265091584   Permalink 4:13 PM – 5 Nov 2019

@novak_ma Few months ago I read Fooled by Randomness by @nntaleb and deleted my stock watch app from phone. I checked my stocks just once since then. Feels good. Permalink 9:20 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb BTW, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, just a little reminder that you are an impostor, a fake scholar, a fraud. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640   Permalink 7:46 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When as****les call you “arrogant”, you are on the right side of ethics. https://twitter.com/fadesingh/status/1191740272704573440   Permalink 7:45 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Just found a mistake in my paper concerning the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition (as I had the wrong description): the testing metric is always thin tailed EVEN if the underlying variable is fat tailed. pic.twitter.com/VOwRRgWDUZ Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The incoherent fellow (an ethnic Druze chieftain claiming to be socialist) is a specimen of someone who lives in the wrong century & fails to understand #localism. Pple are more interested in electricity & public services than geopolitical incantations. https://twitter.com/walidjoumblatt/status/1191665339945361410   Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@Decafquest On people who are afraid of cameras by @nntaleb: Relevant today more than ever. pic.twitter.com/647tMUjhmo Permalink 3:41 AM – 5 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “We learn the most from fools … yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:35 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Religious Fundamentalists (including atheist fundamentalists) aren’t just usually morbidly stupid; they can be detected by the total absence of any sense of humor. https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/1191487729407873026   Permalink 5:42 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Localism is the new … communism Permalink 3:28 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Voila. The informal title is “ Localism, Complexity, and busting the BS by IYIs ” Please let me know if you are joining. https://twitter.com/launyhq/status/1191453179629715456?s=21   Permalink 1:26 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@LAUNYHQ Join @nntaleb at #LAUNYHQ 5:30-7pm Thursday evening Nov 7 for a pop-up seminar on Localism and its Application to Lebanon – space is limited, first come first serve, register here https://www.eventbrite.com/e/localism-and-its-application-to-lebanon-tickets-80078479889   Permalink 12:32 PM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please indicate in this thread if you wish to come. Limited to people involved in the Lebanese situation. This is not about #Localism in general rather its application to Lebanon. (Swiss specialists welcome to join as CH is the model for multiethnic multireligious localism) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1191152050471677953   Permalink 7:02 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb NEW VERSION Principia Politica #Localism https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 4:38 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Naive universalism attracts IYIs and self-righteous psychopaths https://twitter.com/yhazony/status/1191165326249070594   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/98JaV4R7vH”>  pic.twitter.com/98JaV4R7vH Permalink 3:45 AM – 4 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, I will present #LOCALISM with respect to #Lebanon next Thursday at 5:30 in New York (before I leave NY for the Republic of Amioun). An application of PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Venue to be confirmed #LebanonProtest Permalink 4:35 PM – 3 Nov 2019

@levelsio “For I have a single definition of success: you look in the mirror every evening, and wonder if you disappoint the person you were at 18, right before the age when people start getting corrupted by life. Let him or her be the only judge; not your reputation” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:57 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I can understand someone defending Iran against Salafis/Saudi Arabia. Never anyone -supporting Iran’s regime in the murders of Iraqi youths -supporting Iranian interference in the #Lebanonprotest, largely by youths FED UP w/their exploitation for geopolitics. #Localism Permalink 8:48 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1190426291515908098   Permalink 6:43 AM – 3 Nov 2019

@financequant To all at RWRI 12, travel safely. It was a pleasure to work with you. Permalink 6:19 PM – 2 Nov 2019

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb summarizing Wolfram’s Principle of Computational Equivalence at #RWRI Any two systems that display non-trivial behavior are just as sophisticated as each other in terms of range of computation (not speed or memory) Deep implications for IQ pic.twitter.com/hK9RZizT1D Permalink 2:15 PM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game @tarekmilleron American Airlines flight attendants stand up to Boeing CEO on 737 MAX https://reut.rs/2qcPPz6   Permalink 11:17 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou Sh3aybiyé at #RWRI ! https://twitter.com/firsou/status/1157585257073430529?s=21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/l36yXHk69X”>  pic.twitter.com/l36yXHk69X Permalink 10:10 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Heinonmatti Hey, @VergilDen is here! Banking system moves from right to left in the network fig –> vulnerability to targeted attacks. [Hope he talks about fighting later.] #RWRI pic.twitter.com/4Q1NvpvtLz Permalink 8:38 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON A bit of empiricism French and UK voters send their “heroes” Churchill and De Gaulle home after the war. Same with Bush the elder after the successful Persian Gulf war. War arguments & “resistance” do not register during periods of peace. #LebanonProtests #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@Firsou “It’s unnatural to prepare” I agree 100%. Never prepared for a presentation while I was being told “you need to have notes”. If you need 10 pages of notes why should anyone listen to you? #RWRI Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE LIRA I hear that the Lira is trading at ~ 1675. No worries. A 10% deval. is nothing since the Lira commands much higher int rates than USD. [A holder of LIRA would still be profitable.] Even a 50% deval. would just cover the last few years of interest r differential. Permalink 5:46 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@RubenGao Don’t f*** with the tail! pic.twitter.com/HGw2rBpriO Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@arisroussinos Via Facebook, Oxi Day celebration by the Greek Orthodox community of Damascus, part of the Patriarchate of Antioch, among the last surviving Greeks of Syria pic.twitter.com/BpvGRoIG2V Permalink 2:52 AM – 1 Nov 2019

@birdxi1988 A great day at #RWRI @nntaleb mentioned the link between Kelly Criterion and entropy as well as why tail fitting is more an art than a science! pic.twitter.com/4S1CD5ptxI Permalink 3:57 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@Heinonmatti @nntaleb continues; you can rule out Gaussian distributions by observing one outlier, which would be ~impossible under the Gaussian, but much much more common under another distribution. Another way is to rule out based on physiological / biological bounds. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/UsZFsVHgQd Permalink 2:06 PM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 An explanation for fat tails from feedback loops: “Abyssus abyssum invocat” תְּהוֹם-אֶל-תְּהוֹם קוֹרֵא Permalink 8:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1189905740825288705   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1189906294725120000   Permalink 7:09 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1189879515511754753   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:15 AM – 31 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4/n Problem of teleology: the French Gov. started explicitly an internet (Minital) and failed, what survived is the side effect of a military application. @MazzucatoM: Given the % of GDP by government, what % of innovation came from government? Didn’t gov displace private invt? Permalink 10:06 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/n @mazzucatoM claimed that by attending Princeton high school she attended a “state school”. Scale effect: it’s a school for the residents of the commune, equivalent in its functioning to a private school. Permalink 10:01 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/n Govt bureaucrats are not boring & lacking in innovative drive because they didn’t study strategy in business schools (i.e. because of their education) as claimed by @mazzucatoM, rather boring people tend to work for government. Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 1/n Just listened on way to #RWRI the @econtalker podcast with @mazzucatoM about the government role in innovation “investor of first resort”. Will comment further after I read the book, but found many flaws in reasoning by Mazzucato: Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:25 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/gordo_68/status/1189549437821095936   Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI entropy pic.twitter.com/Hco7vTWOco Permalink 7:19 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 : Robert Frey ⁦@financequant⁩ showing how the “blind watchmaker” (see book by BS vendor @richarddawkins) is improper characterization of evolution and complex systems: a watch half built is jot a watch. pic.twitter.com/iW8rn5XuIm Permalink 6:22 AM – 30 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity.” Permalink 5:12 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo At #RWRI, @nntaleb, @financequant and @normonics are fighting over the best definition of entropy… I don’t see why, given that the best definition is mine : a pseudo-metric of distortion, whose interpretation varies with its generator. Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Oct 2019

@DrCirillo Live from #RWRI, @normonics speaking about networks. pic.twitter.com/5Y1jtmVaWq Permalink 11:47 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@coordinatedsync #RWRI pic.twitter.com/wKmsJBVBjG Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The way political parties and militias self destruct. They can use weapons against ISIS and Israel, never against their own constituents. They are done. #لبنان__ينتفض #LebanonProtests pic.twitter.com/hXWWArIwCQ Permalink 5:23 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr Skin in the game also has an intrinsic moral appeal and aesthetic value: Real virtue isn’t cheap. And it turns out skin in one’s own game is a moral minimum; more admirable is skin in other people’s games—­altruism, or what he calls “soul in the game” Permalink 5:16 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@aliciaparr For Taleb, skin in the game is an expression of intellectual virtue. One isn’t actually thinking well if one doesn’t have some sense of accountability for the outcomes of one’s judgments. Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@NonMeek “Take all the risk you want but don’t f**k with the tail.” -@nntaleb That’s one central idea from yesterday’s #RWRI 12 starting session. BOOM Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Oct 2019

@visualizevalue — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CJQRGHBkM9 Permalink 7:02 PM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ramses XII Riad Salameh now blaming the messenger for revealing the Ponzi he orchestrated. He is implicitly using the currency as a threat. Instability is preferable to fake Ponzi stability. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/10/28/beirut-lebanon-protests-riad-salame-becky-anderson-ctw-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@StartSocieties Excited for @nntaleb’s next book. Politics framed as a complex adaptive system totally changes political priorities. Let’s focus less on top down solutions, and more on building political systems that enable antifragile problem solving. #localism https://buff.ly/2MQMr5w   Permalink 9:56 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 pic.twitter.com/aSrEOiRb5V Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI 12 pic.twitter.com/o0rMJZCTb9 Permalink 5:18 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 To all #RWRI folks, wish I could be with you for my 6th visit…if nothing else to ask questions born from my confusion. Have fun! @nntaleb @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @VergilDen @Jed_Trott and the rest of the gang. Permalink 4:07 AM – 28 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes! https://twitter.com/HabibSHaddad/status/1188513669388349440   Permalink 11:14 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1188496796110209029?s=20   Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A kind of network, but not desirable (one dimensional), but beats standard statist hierarchies. pic.twitter.com/XKhytgCC2i Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Beirut Madinati now writing IN LEBANESE! Congrats! #Localism #LebanonProtests https://twitter.com/BeirutMadinati/status/1188469504910774277   Permalink 8:11 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same in Semitic languages: Heb עבודה = work, and עבד 3bd= to be a slave. https://twitter.com/GreekEtymology/status/1188080169292046337   Permalink 7:20 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. It is just to clean up my feed for a dialogue with minimum sophistry. Permalink 6:21 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb coercion Permalink 5:59 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain complexity and spontaneous order, with the “leaderless” Lebanese protests which baffles intellectuals, journos, Arabists, & other ignorant idiots looking for agency. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests https://twitter.com/Limportant_fr/status/1188364771504115712   Permalink 5:58 AM – 27 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Mr Ewan Birney @ewanbirney, sorry but you don’t understand the “quantitative trait” at all. @StuartJRitchie is, practically, analytically, a fraud who can fool someone who doesn’t know what correlation means. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1187712684751511552   Permalink 11:23 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@rationalwalk If UBI was referred to as a negative income tax, which it actually is, and if replaces rather than is additive to welfare, it would be a hugely popular idea across the political spectrum, except among the bureaucrats who’d be out of a job. So they’ll demagogue this to death. Permalink 11:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on STATISM My problem w/”socialists” is that they are statists & intrusive, not pro-welfare. I am for a negative tax (minimum income)= to $$ spent on welfare, saving spending on bureaucrats. But they refuse because they want to DIRECT how ppple spend $ & pay cronies. Permalink 11:03 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb CEMENT IN LEBANON. As in elsewhere, construction is a mafia business. Cement Imports are banned to benefit factories in Lebanon (that employ Syrian workers). Lebanese citizens pay TWICE the price for concrete. The margins are shared by the Kleptocrats. #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 10:09 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Ἔλεγεν δὲ αὐτοῖς ὁ Ἰησοῦς ὅτι Οὐκ ἔστιν προφήτης ἄτιμος, εἰ μὴ ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ, καὶ ἐν τοῖς συγγενέσιν καὶ ἐν τῇ οἰκίᾳ αὐτοῦ. Mark, 6 Never never try anything beyond nudging. https://twitter.com/Crimson28481571/status/1188138692034154498   Permalink 10:04 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb We have so many capable people in the diaspora or ex-diaspora. Based on his track record, I propose @DrFadloKhuri as a member of the next cabinet. Or someone along such a profile. https://twitter.com/AUB_Lebanon/status/1187702093374803968   Permalink 7:32 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@PZalloua At the demonstrations today: “Lebanese Style” pic.twitter.com/w3EnHkGKca Permalink 6:48 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The point is that whatever is not worthless is psychology we already know from elsewhere. The issue: bad science is worse than no science. https://twitter.com/just_1_singh/status/1188082946772619264   Permalink 6:22 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@encrier improvised signs for today’s protest pic.twitter.com/V0uW0QgoMD Permalink 5:17 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People who were previous ashamed of writing in Lebanese feel now empowered to do so! Even Nasrallah spoke in Lebanese. From chaos you get a new order. #ComplexSystems #Localism #BottomUp #Lebanon #لبنان_ينتفض https://twitter.com/Marcellenassif/status/1188053343253479425   Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Over time for the sake of efficiency & owing to, say, preferential attachment, networks are pulled into the center, from unifom to power laws or maybe lognormal. The one of the left collapses. Centralized systems end up collapsing after pseudostability Explained in #TheBlackSwan Permalink 7:37 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@Cernovich Who are the five wisest living people today, in any country in the world? Permalink 4:34 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The problem with historical reporting is overestimation of agency: narratives require leaders so people are fooled by journos etc. about the exact process. Same overestimation of agency as the one in #fooledbyrandomness #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 2:45 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To the left, how both Nasrallah, his enemies, & journalists think Lebanese Politics should work. To the right is how the protesters proved it works. Complex systems generatee spontaneous order. Progress lies in having NO leaders. #لبنان_ينتفص #Localism #LebaneseProtests pic.twitter.com/BBSy7tY91V Permalink 1:33 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The central aspect about the Lebanese riots is that there is no leader. #Localism https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185929047441842177   Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Actually song in Lebanese #Localism https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1187797354268844032   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Oct 2019

@normonics @nntaleb look at the traction kanye talking about localism is getting. first, the self and mind, then the family, then the community, gardens, agriculture, etc. bottom up. local first. meme is sticking. Permalink 11:31 AM – 25 Oct 2019

@nntalebbot “What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have; it is what he or she is afraid of losing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 24 Oct 2019

@ronaldchagoury Sooooo well said – I’ve never been able to put my finger on it, and this is so spot on. The resentment class who rarely have skin in the game Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Nobody seems to be getting what I am saying: The assets of the ETFs should be dropping, no? Easy/tight money affects real estate, not just ETF. Permalink 9:28 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@VergilDen And then make changes to the educational system as NNT points out in Principia Politica https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1187393313894273024   Permalink 8:43 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why the REITS are still rallying? Rates are net, net higher. https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1187388458471440384   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8DcX4jkjJS”>  pic.twitter.com/8DcX4jkjJS Permalink 8:40 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Women in #Lebanon https://twitter.com/marcellenassif/status/1187361618541326336   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Don’t miss @nntaleb tonight at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium at the Bern Dibner Library (5 MetroTech Center, Brooklyn, NY). https://bit.ly/2Pe4cNO   #NYUTandonMade @nyutandon https://twitter.com/NYUFRE/status/1187015193294987267   Permalink 7:36 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@mcclay_roman This page from you is framed and on the wall of my little container home. pic.twitter.com/nFCEujPQeo Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I do not wish to be considered for any official position in #Lebanon, so PLEASE remove my name. I prefer to help in other ways. This is the 3rd request. #LebanonProtests pic.twitter.com/xVMUqiB47s Permalink 7:33 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No, pple in Lebanon & elsewhere aren’t complaining abt “inequality”. The “inequality” is a claimm by the resentment class: journalists, academics (Pikety) & other losers. They want better conditions, governance, justice, accountability & skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 4:17 AM – 24 Oct 2019

@paulportesi Missed this about a month ago. Very interesting data point. @nntaleb has mentioned how using ice for injuries has no scientific foundation if I remember correctly. Align to Nature. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/25/well/move/weights-muscles-cold-ice-bath-weightlifting-exercise-recovery.html   Permalink 11:28 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics will lecktshur at #RWRI about complexity and multiscale properties of “tings”. He has 54 minutes plus 11 Q&A. Raphael, @financequant myself, & others will heckle him (we can stand heckling). https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1187068911986118661   Permalink 4:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) With Modi also no tie (twice). Only exception: the US Senate. They refused to let me testify without a tie, so I borrowed one. pic.twitter.com/bycwHwwFsT Permalink 2:00 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I deposited my last business tie in the garbage can at the corner of 48th St and Park avenue in December 1993, only kept ones for funerals. Since then wore no tie at 10 Downing, White House, etc. Below with 12 (former) heads of state-cum-tie guests of Nursultan Nazarbaev. pic.twitter.com/QV2R1BKDs9 Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb These low-intellect Western Arabists trying to force their 1001 night identity on us don’t know that “merci” came to Lebanon via Turkish, Armenian, & Farsi. The Edward Said “collonial” is Total BS: the French spend 2 decades on a military mandate. pic.twitter.com/hT1JeZkR5n Permalink 1:36 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb What if the army went after the people? Not many options #lebanonprotest https://twitter.com/danifromic/status/1187081376077619200   Permalink 12:35 PM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb A heuristic to pick out a fraudster in #Lebanon, helpful for the selection of new ministers: 1) Wears a tie (hence empty suit), & 2) Speaks on TV in Classical Arabic (a dead Semitic language, similar to shouting in Medieval Latin in the UK Parliament). Permalink 10:58 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy: the latest format and a #Lindy text pic.twitter.com/algPBvUhdW Permalink 10:49 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@shreyansh_jain1 That’s a foolish statement. The fundamental problem of food supply is food wastage. So it’s a supply chain mgt problem. It’s the other way around here. Organic farming takes more space to patch the quantity of wasted food. You desperately need lessons from @nntaleb. Permalink 9:30 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb How the Lebanese State destroyed the economy [English subtitles, including the “Gabish”] https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1186693565872824321?s=20   Permalink 9:25 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@PZalloua This is how revolutions are made: Lebanese style! pic.twitter.com/aheiKcxIyb Permalink 9:16 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: If my enemies knew me better, they would hate me even more. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Proud of my Archbishop! Vacuum is better than what we currently have. pic.twitter.com/fuWaGwSBZw Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@NYUFRE Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb, will present “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” as part of the NYU FRE Lecture Series this Thursday at 6:30 p.m. in the Pfizer Auditorium. This event is open to the public. #NYUTandonMade Permalink 7:37 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 9- CORRECTION I MADE A MISTAKE Trusting Hariri’s claims of balanced budget. #Lebanon https://www.facebook.com/557151507/posts/10157358489701508?sfns=mo   Permalink 6:50 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@ShipSystem In Norway being a village local means so much for any job even over more qualified person from next village. Have u ever lived in Norway because ur tweet is 100% true. Maybe norwegians socialist on some aspects but super localist on most aspects. Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb BernieSanderistas are trying to promote a fake idea of “Nordic Socialism”. Nordics are 1)Yuugely localists (see #Antifragile on communes); they empowered local lang [Danish, Norwegian, Swedish] & don’t call them “dialects of Nordic”. 2) Are NOT socialists [Soc. failed in 70s] Permalink 5:47 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Fuck, no. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is Arabic. Write to me in Lebanese. Permalink 5:06 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Bernie Sanders, stay out of this. You’re like a quack doctor who will kill the patient. The socialist (centralized statism) you are selling is what ruined Iraq, Syria, Egypt over the past 60 y. Lebn has little to do w/”Arab” Spring. Pple are fed up w/ kleptocracy/statism/Arabism https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1186762286507220994   Permalink 4:59 AM – 23 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard .@HillaryClinton, your foreign policy was a disaster for our country and the world. It’s time for you to acknowledge the damage you have caused and step down from your throne. http://tulsi.to/hillarys-disaster   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/h2fl7ox0Rv”>  pic.twitter.com/h2fl7ox0Rv Permalink 2:56 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR Option traders might recognize some sort of butterfly pic.twitter.com/ca7Y9ZtJxh Permalink 2:25 PM – 22 Oct 2019

@Extrachelle An excellent book deserves a good LaTex bookmark #SITG @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Hz9LxvkmA6 Permalink 10:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Can someone explain it to them? https://twitter.com/Humanityfirster/status/1186678737862975488   Permalink 9:49 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ducavendish “the larger the central state, the more patronage.” Fucking brilliant. Still, people just don’t get it. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1186633663506780162   Permalink 7:13 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rest in peace, David Freedman. You were the first BS buster in statistics, and trained me to it. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1186642155110043649   Permalink 7:11 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ektrit For anybody with knowledge of actual history like Taleb, #LOCALISM is how the world functioned until mid 19th century, with the implementation of nation-states in Europe. As perspective, the current global setting is just 200 years young out of 6000 years of documented history. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1186634471887527937   Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb You have a moral duty to write in the language of the population. The French parliament does not use Latin. Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I refuse to use ARABIC, an elite COERCIVE language not spoken by the population. If you want me to write in anything, I use Levantine in the Lebanese version. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 6:57 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 8- WARNING I see that many Marxists/Socialists, Arabists & other intellectual fraudsters are trying to own the riots. The problem is that Socialist regimes worsen the problems (Nasser choked Egypt, Baath killed Syria/Iraq, Algeria). All these are Statists. Solution is #LOCALISM Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7- SOLUTIONS It would be nice to but some kleptocrats in jail, particularly that funds are traceable. This will happen. But it is PATRONAGE that needs to go. Let me repeat, PATRONAGE! This can ONLY happen via decentralization as the larger the cental state, the more patronage. Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 6- People are angry because: a-they share the debt burden w/no benefits b-the Leb State messes up everything it touches, except security c-unlike Maluf, kleptocrats do not deliver The need for religious “harmony” allowed a multi-sect “elite” to milk the system to the bone. Permalink 6:18 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 5- (Cont some clarity about #Lebanon) Corruption doesn’t necessarily kill economic activity (Brazil’s Paulo Maluf “steals but delivers”). Except that the way the Petit Segneurons operate is to use their franchise by imposing yuuuge red tape: No electicity, no garbage collection! Permalink 6:08 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4- The patronage system got out of control: government contracts grabbed by cronies, in a scheme orchestrated by people in/out of government, s.a. the Grand Segneura & many less visible Petit Segneurons populating ministries. Kleptocracy is traceable& illegal, not patronage! Permalink 6:02 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3- Meanwhile the Gov is that of a federation, which is good (via healthy sectarianism) but government service is simply PATRONAGE, for each sect to get the max from the system. A healthier federation is to do it according to geography, via municipal power. Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2- Luckily the Ponzi involves only 2 parties, Leb Gov (via Ramses XIII Salameh) & the banks. Hence easy non-inflationary cancellations w/clawbacks from those who made millions are possible. In the meanwhile Gov is taxing back the banks to cover secondary deficit, very smart move. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb #LEBANON, in Summary 1- Leb government got involved in a Ponzi (facilitated by Ramses XIII, Riad Salameh) that sucks up all funds from the system. People have no incentive to put $ (say inheritance from a childless maternal aunt) in a business; get >10% interest from the bank. Permalink 5:46 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Same with #Lebanon driving rules: except for speed, chaos is beneficial. Speed limits are necessary because of nonlinearity. From #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/mIp166DxZQ Permalink 5:26 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Waiting in line is not always efficient as it can cause traffic jams. At RWRI we recommend that people overcome these arbitrarily & unempirically derived English manners & avoid waiting in line at the buffet lunch. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1186551994892206080   Permalink 4:44 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@BLebnene On @reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/lebanon/comments/dleyvl/technocracy_wont_solve_our_problems_we_need_a/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share   Permalink 3:00 AM – 22 Oct 2019

@ofer_rubin After they fail those imbeciles NEVER forget to say “this wasn’t real Socialist”, f**king utopia drug dealers. Permalink 4:14 AM – 21 Oct 2019

@nntaleb No. Very naive topdownism. Every degree of complexity reduces odds of success by 1 order of magnitude @lebaneselingui1 https://twitter.com/lebaneselingui1/status/1185972215382249476   Permalink 10:42 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@DarkoAlexandar Cuánto de esto aplica también acá en #chile https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185928446062542848   Permalink 10:25 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Riad Salamé, let me know when we can talk. We need to discuss the Ponzi you helped organize (and what the exact numbers are). There is no way citizens should inherit such a debt burden. Given that primary deficits are ~OK, you have some explanations to do. pic.twitter.com/Wr9NJhyAUj Permalink 9:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb KLEPTOCRACY: It is important to note that corruption is NOT necessarily in the government (often composed of transient ministers) but deep in the opaque administrations. Which is why decentralization makes things salient. Permalink 8:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb People in #Lebanon are figuring out spontaneous crowdd order. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hTNC0olXIw”>  pic.twitter.com/hTNC0olXIw Permalink 7:41 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM in LEBANON pic.twitter.com/Bym65b0st4 Permalink 7:39 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 7ada 3am ystghll 2sset l léj2in! Hiyyé l mshklé yallé 2abado 3layon! https://twitter.com/XXVlllV/status/1185898997564751873   Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@Zzeghedrane Diaspora, this is our contribution to the uprising! Fund the people to keep going! Water, food, snacks, masks, whatever they need. $20 can give water to 60 protesters! Please share!! #LebDiasporaProtests #LebDiasporaFunds #لبنان__ينتفض https://www.gofundme.com/f/1sdqrcksqo?utm_medium=social   Permalink 6:20 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Question is whether “Baabda vaut bien une messe”. (Henry IV converted to Catholicism to become King of France. He didn’t have a Greek Orthodox mother.) Beyond the joke, under the LOCALISM program, the president is a mere clerc, as in Switz. Lower rank than mayor of Amioun. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1185492162470916097   Permalink 4:56 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@semperfidem2004 Another excellent argument for #Brexit. Nothing at all “shows very easily” in the EU https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1185513868921049088   Permalink 3:05 AM – 20 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Lebanese in Boston, Tomorrow, Sunday the 20th, starting at 4 PM in front of the Boston Public Library – Copley Square Protest with us! Bring your flags and signs! Spread the word to your Lebanese in Boston metro! #LebDiasporaProtests #لبنان_يثور #لبنان_ينتفض #يا_ثوار_الارض pic.twitter.com/QM9HoudTGx Permalink 6:18 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Rioting Lebanese style https://twitter.com/nxbeeel/status/1185611015842607104   Permalink 5:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@AdibChristian Petition to get the ball rolling on this with @nntaleb https://twitter.com/hachemyassin/status/1185707172476456960   Permalink 5:16 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@HachemYassin Admittedly this needs a lot of work on the ground. M people became accustomed to think they are entitled to things from the state, with the famous “wayniyye l dawle” cliche. dawle is there, but it is the problem,not the solution.sadly, protestors think the state shld provide jobs Permalink 5:06 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2) The current villains (Siniora, Berri, Basil) will, over time, look much more like villains, whether justified or not. Salamé will, of course, be dragged through the mud. #Lebanon PS- I spend a week per month there but missed events because of #RWRI 12 Permalink 4:02 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb RIOTING LESSON 101; When rioters win concessions from the governement, they ask for more. #Lebanon 1/n Permalink 12:17 PM – 19 Oct 2019

@dzviovich Concentration of wealth is an emergent property of a complex system such as the economy. https://bit.ly/2oVYyFs   . It is also a property of rent seeking societies. The other emergent property, social mobility, will not show up. Picketty and friends seem to ignore this… Permalink 5:41 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Only in Lebanon. https://twitter.com/melodielaggaffe/status/1185528761426599936   Permalink 5:38 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@jadabdala a phoenician mediterranean saturday – Lebanon – le phénix renait de ses cendres pic.twitter.com/5zQ6yCQVMH Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Oct 2019

@TulsiGabbard Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a … Permalink 1:20 PM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Friends, a lecktshur open to the public next Thursday. But it will be mathematical, so non-quants please refrain. Based on my new book, Vol 1 of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yhp3OdC62H”>  pic.twitter.com/yhp3OdC62H Permalink 6:42 AM – 18 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For those not used to Twitter language (or aphorisms), “it’s not” should be translated into academic discourse unburdened with space constraints as “not necessarily so”. Permalink 9:05 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb One hitch: Donaldo’s letter is closer to that of the Sultan than to the response by the Cossacks. Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Donaldo’s letter to Erdogan will be remembered in international affairs as the 2019 version of the Cossaks letter to the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed IV. pic.twitter.com/qzA4jLZgP5 Permalink 6:22 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Infrastructure is commonly held to be a good thing. It’s not. It creates winner-take-all effects in communication. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1184692165345267712   Permalink 5:23 AM – 17 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Treating George W. Bush as an authority on peace and stability is similar to relying on a drunk driver (while drunk) as the expert on road safety. https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1184611576378265600   Permalink 6:27 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In 2008 I held that something as absurd as the pseudo-Nobel in economics would end self-destructing. No point fighting it: it would collapse under the weight & monstrosity of the fraud. You can’t fool people forever. 2019 did the job. Permalink 6:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Sanctions work with countries like Turkey & China that depend on the West, not with Iran/Syria after 40 years of autarchy. The mere threat made the currency collapse. Permalink 5:31 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb I am impressed. The economic weapon is a much, much more effective one than the military one. We are no longer in 1936. Trump got it. https://twitter.com/DaniFromIC/status/1184575524389163008   Permalink 2:28 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@normonics All over the world, you see a common theme: Decentralization is a threat to the ruling classes. https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/1184558211988447232   Permalink 1:01 PM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fasted way to become poor is to socialize with the rich. Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Peterson is a charlatan. https://twitter.com/MZAntonius/status/1184320883285995521   Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@yaneerbaryam Antidepressants and other psych meds are personality change operations. Medicine/psychiatry/psychology are in a primitive state and do not understand context-individual complexity. Meds should be used only as a last resort. @MichaelSagnerMD @nntaleb See https://amazon.com/Psychologys-Ghosts-Crisis-Profession-Back/dp/0300178689   Permalink 5:16 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Well oh well… Tulsi the most searched candidate in 49/50 states yesterday. Seems like #UnusualAmericans want to know more about her. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1184324191119724544   Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This guy is a fraud. https://twitter.com/ascendantpower/status/1184105213675921410   Permalink 3:23 PM – 15 Oct 2019

@NonMeek This #Offshorecomic strip was done in collaboration with & inspired by @sean_a_mcclure‘s https://medium.com/@seanaaron100/intelligence-complexity-and-the-failed-science-of-iq-4fb17ce3f12   Thanks for your brilliant inputs, Sean! #IQ #circularity cc: @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Li0lnvP0eb”>  pic.twitter.com/Li0lnvP0eb Permalink 10:57 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@Prof_BearB Nice piece. Brings to mind a point that I didn’t make in my book: if I (and @aaronclauset and @nntaleb + @DrCirillo) are right about the absence of decline and @tanishafazal is right about battle deaths, we’re actually *trying* to kill a lot *more* people today than we used to. https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1184116033872891904   Permalink 8:03 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@ryanckulp everything by @nntaleb. each loop = 1% absorbed https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg/status/1183792839299235840   Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb M7n vs Manyaké as described by @Confusezeus You call a number, ask for Joseph: – “Jozef Khouré hon?” – Wrong number. Call again, same thing. That’s “m7n”. Call 3rd time: Hi, I am Jozef Kouré. Did anyone call for me? That’s manyaké. Permalink 6:04 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR The most untranslatable word I know: “M7n” in Lebanese. Unlike other untranslatable expressions, you cannot even easily describe what it is. Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Be stubborn https://twitter.com/Seananocoistin/status/1184038568966144001   Permalink 3:29 AM – 15 Oct 2019

@sahouraxo A short little history of war propaganda: Vietnam 1964 – Gulf of Tonkin incident Gulf War 1990 – Incubator Babies Iraq War 2003 – Imaginary WMDs Libya 2011 – Nonexistent massacres in Benghazi #Syria 2019: Video from a Kentucky military show passed off as Syrian war footage https://twitter.com/gizmodo/status/1183773245163687936   Permalink 5:43 PM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists (unless they have mental issues, in which case they become psychologists). And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:31 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Those with brains no balls become mathematicians, those with balls no brains join the mafia, those with no balls no brains become economists. And those with brains and balls become ____? Permalink 10:27 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Good news: > 100,000 lawsuits. Engaging in systematic iatrogenics is becoming very unprofitable. After Monsanto, J&J, now waiting for statins, seed oil, etc. https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-legal-challenges-mount-11571055242?shareToken=st588f2ec699f14312a493edf4bde4220b   via @WSJ Permalink 10:26 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THREAD on How the Nazis (& predecessors) created a link with (some of) the Mediterranean populations, to manufacture a common “race” with former Barbarians and a continuum of civilization. Chapoutot, thanks to recommendation by @holland_tom pic.twitter.com/KEdcKrbFHb Permalink 9:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Voila, there don’t seem to be many other f(x). pic.twitter.com/G9u0CU21Ns Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Math QUIZ du jour. (Please refrain from commenting outside the exact topic.) pic.twitter.com/jsQuIsC7GS Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@newtgingrich Why is the left so afraid of Tulsi Gabbard? I don’t understand the viciousness of the atatacks on her by the NY Times and others. Permalink 2:25 AM – 14 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Η ελληνική καταγωγή των Ρωμιών της Συρίας που σήμερα σφαγιάζονται από τους μουσουλμάνους https://meaculpa.gr/apopsis/33837-i-elliniki-katagogi-ton-romion-tis-surias-pou-simera-sfagiazontai-apo-tous-mousoulmanous   Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@jun78th Scale transformation is so important a concept – so much mismatch in scale between problem and solution often. When mismatch is minimal, life flows richly. I do hope you are able to (successfully) educate a new generation on scale transformation Permalink 7:11 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The cat is out of the bag. Antifragile is no longer in my control. https://twitter.com/IvanBlecic/status/1183378277278388224   Permalink 6:47 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb He got it! Hyperlinks are distracting. This is not. #Lindy! https://twitter.com/davidboxenhorn/status/1183260484121833472?s=20   Permalink 6:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb For COMMENTS pic.twitter.com/eTMMitpVsP Permalink 5:49 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In the PRINCIPIA I explain that people used to welcome individuals but reject groups qua groups (cf hospitality of Arab tribes for n<5 pple, hostility otherwise). They still do but are confused about it. “Racism” is not scale-free. https://twitter.com/teddyjwhitman/status/1183362653022048256   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Eveentually, this pic.twitter.com/1FxmBnhTRg Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb When you ask people what restaurant they *would* like, they answer: comfortable, not too noisy, with room & no wait. Yet they wait in line to pak in tiny rooms with yuuge noise levels & the mobility of the Tokyo subway car. Same for books. Make them dense. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1183336137391108096?s=20   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/rbN8SyBFQq Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb The inside: unfortunately one needs to break paragraphs manually pic.twitter.com/CHhlc5rXTR Permalink 4:13 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb OK, smaller fonts in the margins. Note it is done in LaTeX @Firsou pic.twitter.com/ilN7fNdb6u Permalink 3:57 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally the “Tufte style” is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile Permalink 3:35 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@bogdanosk Οι «Ρουμ» της Συρίας και του Λιβάνου ανήκουν στο (ελληνόφωνο ως το 1897) Ελληνορθόδοξο Πατριαρχείο Αντιοχείας. Έχουν ελληνική κληρονομιά που χρονολογείται από την ίδρυση της Αντιοχείας το 323 πΧ, καταγόμενοι από αρχαίους Μακεδόνες και βυζαντινούς Ρωμιούς. https://meaculpa.gr/apopsis/33837-i-elliniki-katagogi-ton-romion-tis-surias-pou-simera-sfagiazontai-apo-tous-mousoulmanous   Permalink 2:30 AM – 13 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any type of activity or business divorced from the direct filter of skin in the game, the great majority of people know the jargon, play the part, and are intimate with the cosmetic details, but are clueless about the subject.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:17 PM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the Game, Brussels pic.twitter.com/Ri9mkMwPm6 Permalink 10:33 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@noedelafuentemd @nntaleb @RyanHoliday #stillnessisthekey pic.twitter.com/7featfQoJY Permalink 8:15 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Food can only be Lindy. And technology (Amazon) can reduce the distance between supplier and consumer. pic.twitter.com/X1WO7RU4D0 Permalink 8:05 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/visithmml/status/1181721190714527747?s=21   Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Referees should have skin in the game. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1182262130566938624   Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@FedericoPistono It is a special kind of satisfaction to receive the Incerto pentalogy by @nntaleb, in glorious deluxe hardcover, bought with fuck-you-money I made starting my own businesses from scratch, taking risks. pic.twitter.com/RkHIOVmSTu Permalink 4:52 AM – 10 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Here https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 5:03 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Lindy My next book is in this format. https://twitter.com/erik_kwakkel/status/1181962553628483584   Permalink 4:58 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Mehdi_IR_DC My own reason for not liking psychology is that its point of departure is human arrogance. To understand human mind and to fix it! Religion on the other hand starts from the point of human humility, it has via negativa. Permalink 3:50 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@Arch_Revival_ Before & After Hungarians replace ugly modernist building with a new build in the Classical tradition. A beautiful city is a better city. Budapest pic.twitter.com/TPiRSli9o6 Permalink 3:39 PM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Debating… Molyneux? If someone offered you to debate an animal in the zoo, you will be equally offended. Permalink 8:39 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@satyakatla Have chanced upon a #DataScientist lecturing, who has no idea about probability and stating that distribution is drifting from the assumption, hence wrong prediction. What he doesn’t get is it is wrong distribution to start with. @nntaleb succinctly mentioned this here: pic.twitter.com/aSVtmEAFmv Permalink 7:46 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Finaly for the identity Gov. Debt = Asset you need the asset to have the same value as if determined by the real market under selection pressures. Permalink 4:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@walid970721 I just found this tweet by Ken Roth from 2018 that shows what a moron he is. Of course the majority of the refugees are going to be Sunni when they form the majority of the population. Claiming that it’s proof of ethnic cleansing is idiotic. #Syria https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/1013454626694234112   Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Plus or minus the usual typos. pic.twitter.com/qGyuGLFpNQ Permalink 2:16 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Asking @sapinker to talk about … tail risk? https://twitter.com/phil_papa/status/1181854183487606784   Permalink 2:02 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@briteless You will never get the f*** you money* by winning arguments. (Advice to a young adult who wants to become personally free, financially independent, and freely pursue his interests). – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/AfrikaKesho/status/1181267585511370753   Permalink 12:31 AM – 9 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Quiz du Jour, Romanian Mathematical Magazine. [Flight to Brussels] pic.twitter.com/AWKuYjJeHQ Permalink 4:35 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally there is something of interest here: group IQ != average member IQ. Complex systems are about interactions. Failure of mean field. Permalink 4:25 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@stephen_wolfram Even after 35+ years the simplest cellular automata are full of new things to discover… Noticed in a livestream yesterday: rule 73 has randomness in its left- or right-of-center column, but with 3:2 white:black https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/s.wolfram/Published/Rule73.nb   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sp4d4RWZ8g”>  pic.twitter.com/sp4d4RWZ8g Permalink 3:49 PM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb NEVER read anything written by journalists, just look at prices! Correct: “Stocks dropped less than a Mean Deviation because of very slight order imbalances caused by a tiny minority; a small number of unidentified motivated investors adjusting their holdings.” #MinorityRule pic.twitter.com/Xz3TOQtlY8 Permalink 10:27 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FINAL. Thanks everyone for the help. pic.twitter.com/vDI9g9e5TK Permalink 5:32 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Shawarma is not from Turkish but (Eastern) Aramaic, as the Turkish itself (çevirme) originates from the Eastern Syriac Sha-warma, where there is a shift “b” to “w”. “Barma” means to rotate, just as in “gyro” and “rotisserie”. @turlevnon Permalink 4:29 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb THIRD VERSION Large Kafkaian centralization units such as Whitehall, Brussels, etc. “Elite” undergraduate education pic.twitter.com/jmakcYOcRg Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Tis is probabilistic, so the idea is that 3-7 out of 10 items will be gone. Permalink 3:43 AM – 8 Oct 2019

@financequant The trend to relentless centralization will collapse (after much suffering). This has happened in the small with many ex-socialist countries. Consider Sweden which restored a market economy and decentralized its social programs; e.g., school vouchers. http://bit.ly/2ARDBhq   Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@Dark_Realist https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400?s=19   Permalink 1:49 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2nd version pic.twitter.com/aUuCaAKOZS Permalink 1:08 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb FOR COMMENTS Friends, was asked to “predict” what would happen by the end of the decade. Used Lindy. pic.twitter.com/xCqtBIPZ2T Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Why under convexity you don’t need to be a “good” forecaster. pic.twitter.com/7ckH9FA0W6 Permalink 5:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Convexity is often missed in: + finance (gamma, model error) + evolutionary biology (mean-field) cc:@yaneerbaryam (Even those who support group selection s.a. Wilson accept the non-convexity math). + forecasting (verbalistic Tetlockism) + behavioral econ (failure of mean-field) https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1080800546813034499   Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “The market is like a large movie theater with a small door. And the best way to detect a sucker is to see if his focus is on the size of the theater rather than that of the door.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 4:09 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@davidgraeber remember any Turkish invasion of Rojava will be a NATO invasion of Rojava. Any genocide they carry out will be NATO genocide https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/americas-kurdish-allies-syria-turkey-nato   Permalink 2:55 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@Kitsune808 Echos of Taleb multiplying… @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jtepper2/status/1180784381570486272   Permalink 12:53 AM – 7 Oct 2019

@ektrit There is study of Theology/Church History by studying the Church Fathers and There is study of Theology/Church History by understanding that Church Fathers were in the 0.1% of Educated Elite. So, all theological conflict was among the top 0.1%. Night and Day approach. Permalink 4:21 PM – 6 Oct 2019

@DellAnnaLuca THE DYNAMICS OF THE ANTIFRAGILE (thread) Where does the ability of the antifragile to benefit from volatility come from? Can this ability be increased? What policies increase it, and which decrease it? 1/N Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@VergilDen When charlatans, BS artists, and imbeciles try to team up against @nntaleb https://twitter.com/newcuiture/status/1180855329468424192   Permalink 7:46 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Further, the identity in Debt = Money an entity called “we” owes to an entity called “ourselves” fails ergocity. #ergodicityeconomics @ole_b_peters Permalink 6:23 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@TalebWisdom “You know you have influence when people start noticing your absence more than the presence of others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 3:24 AM – 6 Oct 2019

@birdxi1988 At first glance,it seems that ergodicity transformation is same as log utility but with a fancy name. This just shows you why they are so different https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1180431542096666624   Permalink 10:48 AM – 5 Oct 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS you should not live with: coercion of identity by the state or some IYI. https://twitter.com/LebAmUniv/status/1179690962756526081   Permalink 2:54 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Yes! Doing something that is boring, unnatural, and devoid of organic stimulus is not (necessarily) virtue. It is meant to train people to become good bureaucrats and other slaves. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1179505096335474691   Permalink 2:52 AM – 3 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 3/ +Need for *adult supervision* (international) of Salameh & others, no need to replace right away. Permalink 9:21 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 2/ + Government cannot control the corruption, located is in the “deep” ministries. Changing minister is of no help. +Nonpolitical decentralization only solution. +Central state great at managing sectarian tensions …but incapable of dealing with economic life; it’s a burden Permalink 9:20 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE FINANCIAL SITUATION, INTERVIEW Recorded for LBCI (Thu 9:30 PM). + There ~no primary deficit, so no risk of big collapse. Debt is circular Bank-State. + People are so scared that ANY reduction of uncertainty (via moratorium) would be yuugely beneficial Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb In real estate you make money buying the overpriced and selling when extraoverpriced. Avoid the “affordable” crap. https://twitter.com/ibrahimwarde/status/1179397774162481152   Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb Any sucker who buys “Bullshit Claire”’s version of anything or argument about any topic is blocked for intellectual deficiency. Gabish? https://twitter.com/patrissimo/status/1179392526551322626   Permalink 7:10 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb 4 hours dinner conversation with @rorysutherland and Rohan @Silva in a Pakistani restaurant in London (2 bottles of wine, but no Negroni). You must buy two copies of Rory’s book, in case one is stolen, lost, damaged (by the rain), or self-destructs. pic.twitter.com/Xa5WFOGCNt Permalink 3:03 AM – 2 Oct 2019

@nntaleb So conforming to his status of fake scholar, @charlesmurray promotes a thread by *Claire-the-hysterical basketcase* without any of them knowing what I actually said. Note: Anyone who ever cites Charles Murray on anything becomes a fake scholar. https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/1178784796891238400?s=21   Permalink 9:28 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@GultekinBurce Small Probability, High Impact Payoffs: The horizontal line can be the payoff over time, or cross-sectional over many simultaneous trials. Full article: https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility   by @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/F4o8X5IQ1M”>  pic.twitter.com/F4o8X5IQ1M Permalink 1:04 AM – 1 Oct 2019

@STrosterud Yes. Nothing like Taleb accusing the Swedes directly for their Nobel shenanigans Makes both my Norwegian, and Finnish side smile pic.twitter.com/P1ybneyIgF Permalink 11:42 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@paulportesi And the evidence comes later. @nntaleb https://news.yahoo.com/moneywatch-cvs-pulls-zantac-similar-133851787.html   Permalink 7:12 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I meant they changed room to the largest one based on registrations. Permalink 7:04 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Volante team. Volante is a publisher in Stockholm. pic.twitter.com/2VpDfhrlBR Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room. https://twitter.com/volanteforlag/status/1178218694234820609   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Tonight. They have to get the largest room. https://twitter.com/VolanteForlag/status/1178218694234820609   Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@AntonioBlaGra While Taleb’s Real World Risk Institute #RWRI was not one of the organizations I reseached, I realize now that it certainly presents the three characteristics of the Internet Culture: open knowledge, decentralization, and reputation based in what you do. https://realworldrisk.com/   Permalink 3:10 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Except that the Nobel Prize of Literature has the remarkable ability to pick non #Lindy authors too embedded in their time: For France, Sully Prudhomme, Fréderic Mistral,Roger Martin du Gard,Romain Rolland, Anatole France,… https://twitter.com/thomasjbevan1/status/1178602114290982912   Permalink 2:34 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And desertions, and typhus, and the mud. And he kept losing horses throughout. Permalink 1:32 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon is a prime example of *winning almost all battles but losing the war*. Permalink 1:15 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The single biggest hit was the Pyrrhic victory of Borodino (if we can call it a “victory”). Permalink 1:01 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/chasewpatterson/status/1178563602497691648?s=21   Permalink 12:05 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox churches are even more beautiful! https://twitter.com/xxvlllv/status/1178336300325380103   Permalink 12:02 AM – 30 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon was also the grandmaster of fake news, doctoring up his “bulletins”, misreporting his casualties and those of the enemies, even when he was the winner. Permalink 11:55 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb He simply lost 2/3 of his troops to the Russians and the Cossacks. Permalink 11:51 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb MYTH DU JOUR Napoleon was not that great invincible general who was defeated by the Russian winter, nonmilitary circumstances. His Grande Armée had lost 2/3 of its soldiers before the first frost. Also remember that he (twice) deserted his own army. Permalink 11:46 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Never include in your company name “Forever”, “Long Term (Capital)”, or “Amaranth (Capital)” (flower that never dies). https://twitter.com/LieraMarco/status/1178558793707245568   Permalink 11:37 PM – 29 Sep 2019

@Marcellenassif Ideal morning coffee mug pic.twitter.com/nvpNdVi3Kb Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the case of @michaelshermer it was not that I block idiots; it was that I block charlatans, @Monsantobuster https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1178312535822479361   Permalink 7:24 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Looks like you got the idea backwards. pic.twitter.com/iSNHZJuJSq Permalink 7:22 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@VolanteForlag Finally in Sweden: @nntaleb! Today we are looking forward to a great day in Gothenburg at #bokmässan. Miss that? Tomorrow he will lecture in Stockholm. Tickets here: https://www.medborgarskolan.se/arrangemang-sok/skin-in-the-game-forelasning-med-nassim-taleb-1176833/   @bokmassanGbg @medborgarskolan ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zVG2IrEEcZ”>  pic.twitter.com/zVG2IrEEcZ Permalink 1:03 AM – 29 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Aquavit is so strong the Swedes have to drink beer with it. pic.twitter.com/jZaJyxieL3 Permalink 11:53 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Giving a lecktschur on Stockholm Monday Sept 30 in the evening to introduce the Swedish edition of Skin in the Game. https://www.medborgarskolan.se/arrangemang-sok/skin-in-the-game-forelasning-med-nassim-taleb-1176833/   Meanwhile aquavit. https://twitter.com/bkzafar/status/1177942090082377729   Permalink 10:12 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@bkzafar Since no one would believe me otherwise. Got seated next to one of my favourite authors on the train from Stockholm. Welcome to Gothenburg @nntaleb :) pic.twitter.com/NipSN268Mr Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Explanations: 1- Lebanese banks are NOT lending to businesses, but to the government to service the debt… to the same banks. That’s what I called “circularity”. 2- Merchants now realize that an IOU from another merchant is safer than $ in the “bank”. Salameh needs to go. Permalink 2:05 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 3 + Traditional Lebanese politics along ethnoreligious lines are put on hold (now, money talks). Parties are deemed equally incompetent. Old system of *state employement as political patronage* goes out via attrition. + Real decentralization. Permalink 1:50 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION, 2 The system fixes itself + People realize that banks returns are not risk-free; Any income generating project than lend to the “circularity”. + Increase in governance from sudden transparent + Noninvestors take a haircut from past gains. Permalink 1:34 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb LEBANON’S FINANCIAL SITUATION + The primary budget is about balanced; pressure is from debt servicing. + Higher rates drain the economy as real investment returns pale compared to bank deposits *in US $*, leading to a circularity Gov-Banks-Depositors. Let the system fix itself! Permalink 1:25 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (Continuing the thread) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1177850770252845058?s=20   Permalink 12:58 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 16 That rationality is about ideas, & beliefs (or religion) can be “irrational”. No. Rationality is about action. There is no axiomatic framework for rationality that includes beliefs. It is what you do. #SkinintheGame https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 12:41 AM – 28 Sep 2019

@NupurJoshii I love how Nassim Taleb writes his books! There’s a summary to each section and each chapter.. There’s chapter notes . There’s a guide to the book. There’s hilarity and brilliance all at the same time. I mean. It’s wonderful ! Permalink 11:53 PM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Now first statement by Quilletebecile Young @toadmeisster: “IQ is a better predictor of socioeconomic status than parental socioeconomic status” is plain BS. IQ does not predict income/wealth (close to R^2=0, with cheating they get <.04). Permalink 10:42 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And By the way, Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister, we now have the same raw longitudinal data as the ones used by these studies. Permalink 10:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Quillettebecile Toby @toadmeister you can now go find ALLLLLL the “studies” you want, the effective R^2 IQ tests to economic condition is ~0. Keep trying you and your Neo-Eugenist friends. Permalink 10:21 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb As an Orthodox, today was the second most important day for me (after my baptism). The highest ranking person in Orthodoxy, His Holiness Bartholomeos 1 Patriarch of Constantinople, gave me his blessing & a small gift. It was on a plane out of Constantinopolis. pic.twitter.com/qVAeY9jl5f Permalink 10:05 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Mr Young’s own data shows an R^2 of .04 for IQ-Income. He is talking abt socioeconomic condition. Where is the 80% heritability? Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Quillette people make up numbers. This does not show “80% heritability”. Toby Young is a fraud. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177583074202308610?s=21   Permalink 8:09 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid The “State of the art in SS Fcing” is a review paper for lay readers clarifying what we know, what we are not sure and what we don’t know about the field plus what has been achieved lately The paper is part of the M4 Special Issue of the I. J. of Forecasting @robjhyndman @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/4XjFL2LF6t Permalink 4:59 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In fact IQ is 0% correlated to socioeconomic status, Mr Young @toadmeister Fraudster. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1172597583174414336?s=20   Permalink 4:51 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Plomin estimates IQ *testing* is 50% heritable, itself weakly correlated to performance. Plus testing is also 80% correlated to other tests. I estimated R^2 of 0% for socio-economic performance. @toadmeister is a quack reciting some Quillette invented mantra. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese (not Lebanese Armenian) manti (shish barak) is cooked in goat milk yoghurt with Med herbs (laban immo) and left to marinate for a bit. Permalink 4:08 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This idiot Toby Young by saying IQ is 80% heritable is not even representing the literature which (falsely) claims a maximum of 50% @toadmeister https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177351195503026176?s=20   Permalink 3:47 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb + sur les bords + pauvre con (h/t @firsou), very different from petit con + fofolle + bancal + bon chic bon genre + pour ta gouverne + foiré Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Noticed that in Tatarstan & Kazakhstan they stuff their manti with horse meat, and, mostly, horse fat; the yoghurt is made from mare’s milk. Permalink 3:27 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Which confirms my theory that Quillette is managed by a collection of low-intellect, low-skilled BS vendors, using poorly warmed up pseudoscience to promote a eugenics agenda and, of course, incapable of hiding it. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1177351195503026176   Permalink 2:58 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Manti (Istanbul): the ancestor of ravioli. Except, of course, better. pic.twitter.com/1NtTDfNpP9 Permalink 2:34 AM – 27 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Democrats: If you are using information from the whistleblower, you MUST ask for Assange’s exoneration. #Coherence Permalink 11:19 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TMFStoffel “Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling” *THIS* more than anything else, is the thing that — once you see it — you can’t un-see. It’s not just Rand. It seems like scale is something that we *ALL* struggle with. But once we see it, it changes everything. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1177267073409605634   Permalink 8:01 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile https://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Disorder-Incerto/dp/0812979680/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&linkCode=ll1&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 6:34 PM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Ofer just answered the central point: we are not really talking about selfishness, but symmetry. So long as do you not transfer risks to others, you are honorable. You are even more honorable when you take the risks of others. https://twitter.com/ofer_rubin/status/1177294276302127105?s=20   5/n Permalink 11:55 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (cont) + plouc + de souche + marche a coté de ses pompes + petit con (the “petit” is central) Permalink 10:57 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This said there are a lot of words in French I know that have no (potent) equivalent in English which come to me in Fr: + vivotter + glander + minable + tête à baffe Permalink 10:41 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This does’nt make “selfishness” honorable. Nature has no junk: it recycles & makes fertilizers out of animal & human waste. Likewise society recycles somewhat selfish pursuits as fertilizer. So we should not be glorify selfishness, no more than we do w/excreta. 4/n Permalink 10:08 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And Ayn Rand doesn’t get scaling. In that sense I prefer people to focus Mandeville who inspired Adam Smith’s “it’s not the benevolence of the butcher…” A good society is one that via scale transformation makes a virtuous collective out of somewhat selfish individuals. 3/n Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb a hero who serves the collective (expected return is negative as 999/1000 will fail) and there is no such thing as a “failed” entrepreneur; I subscribe to virtue ethics and Christian morality which makes some of her stances repugnant to me both as a Christian & a Classic-ist. 2/n Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I do share a lot of readers with Ayn Rand and there are some commonalities: 1) To do good, focus on your own business, 2) Bureaucrats are evil, etc. But there are yuuuge differences. I do not believe that individuals should be “selfish”, I do believe that the entrepreneur is 1/n Permalink 9:56 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Should be illegal! https://twitter.com/chemblette/status/1177260448347054086   Permalink 9:46 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@zmpng Breaking a 24h fast with squid ink paella. Does @nntaleb approve? pic.twitter.com/Ctj76IX7A5 Permalink 9:11 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The point is not about Trump but the system. I can easily understand why someone can hate Trump. But changing the rules under asymmetries effectively destroys the system. Permalink 5:49 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb My take: Collusion between two parties needs to emanate from an explicit transaction or a well defined offer, not something vague in a conversation. It should be subjected to the same standards as contractual obligations. Otherwise everything can be interpreted as collusion. Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Bottarga with rosé. pic.twitter.com/rPgg3cuI8J Permalink 3:29 AM – 26 Sep 2019

@MarkAmesExiled “The Houthis were only nominally Iran’s surrogates, but they were also our quiet partners against al-Qaeda.” Uncanny how often we try to wipe out Al Qaeda’s enemies https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-military-officials-who-knew-saudi-arabia-would-fail/   Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or is this Ukraine thingy a pathological delusion? Read the transcript. https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1176910531338199040   Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Blunder duJour: Was telling someone on the phone in French “you gave me invaluable advice” (abt food, of course), came out as literal translation “un avis sans valeur” which means “an opinion of no value” & realized after hanging up. Wonder if I will ever get more food tips. Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapouri, Med version pic.twitter.com/UcDxCp5WDC Permalink 1:30 AM – 25 Sep 2019

@rperezmarco “When the scientist points at research the imbecile examines the number of papers” (you can quote me for this one). https://twitter.com/HigherGeometer/status/1176404487272980482   Permalink 2:50 AM – 24 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Actions > words. One of the best rules I know. pic.twitter.com/Z9if9Sy2BT Permalink 11:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

Pedophrasty, BS Detection, IQ, White Supremacy, Weightlifting, Data Scientists, Behavioral Economics, SUNSTEIN, @TulsiGabbard, Plomin, Kazan, Matheux, Harari, Gelman, Quilletebeciles, Argentina

The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the “diversity” operators Medium

@nntaleb A sample of the fights between instructors https://twitter.com/diomavro/status/1143888289763647488?s=21   Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Scholarships are open for the Oct 28 session, RWRI 12 http://Www.realworldrisk.com   PS @VergilDen is an instructor. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/784063189457797120   Permalink 10:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@NClibbens @nntaleb Cost and time estimates overrun. Where I have I read about that problem? #incerto https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1168853263900467200   Permalink 10:07 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@thousandairefx @nntaleb Rent seekers! https://twitter.com/JakeVeigelMD/status/1168918972055609344   Permalink 9:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@vvv_ilya A few months ago I’ve been traveling to CH considering the opening of a Swiss company. At the airport, I started reading Skin in the Game by @nntaleb and in a few mins met Mr. Taleb! Why I’m telling this story now? Because I just got YouHodler SA registered! It was a sign pic.twitter.com/THuxzDcmyx Permalink 8:09 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@GuruAnaerobic Tony Blair is a psychopath. He’s a psychopath with no shame. He’s a psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy, lying, psychopath with no shame and no morals. https://twitter.com/JonnyGeller/status/1168543086756188160   Permalink 7:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 25 years of Calabrese lessons, ~ 15 lessons a year. pic.twitter.com/fTVZ6JyS9u Permalink 6:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/JB_Goldstein/status/1168846225342435330   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@noemie_issan J’adore quand @nntaleb insulte en français. Cela ne manque pas de sel “Con fini” est une de mes insules preferées, avec “imbécile heureux” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1168845474406785035   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great news from this is that Malaysia is a Sunni majority country. Extremely encouraging. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1168052854638206976   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Can “Yes” in Lebanese (mbala) is come from the Yes in Persian (بله) than the negation in Semitic: (“بلا”=”without”)? Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SITG is not just disincentives but, centrally, FILTERING. It bankrupts incompetent pple and remove them from the system so they stop harming others. https://twitter.com/BzhClair/status/1168541504710893568   Permalink 8:37 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Extreme Value Theory: How Pareto=> Fréchet, a simple demonstration. pic.twitter.com/zrkkykzL1z Permalink 7:20 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile it is all probabilistic so far. The Anatolian hypothesis is just much stronger. pic.twitter.com/3scUh6NXln Permalink 5:50 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 15 That Indo European languages were born in the Eurasian Pontic-Caspian steppes/Northern Caucasus. Much higher possibility they were born in East-Med, Anatolia. pic.twitter.com/avls6ZtvNS Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 4) The theory is that Aramaic entered Egypt with the Persians who used it as a lingua franca. But there were numerous pockets of Aramaic-writing Jews (hence other Levantines/Anatolians). But the DNA story makes everything else fragile! Permalink 4:17 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) Something for master historical detective @Safaitic to help us with. Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) Also further coincidences: that the DNA of the mummies is turning out to be Levantine/Anatolian, not Egyptian. And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian. Permalink 3:47 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Things I learned this year: There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic. I was wondering why Egyptian say “mayya” for water & other Levantinisms. pic.twitter.com/XYYcvIzaAD Permalink 3:16 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (“Zamat bi-risho” mush jéyé min rishé bass mnil seryéné “bi raso”, “rish”=ras.) Permalink 10:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Zamatna. Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@rorysutherland The reason this ergodicity thing is useful to marketers is that it explains why they often feel lonely: the managerial-financial aggregated snapshot view of a business lies at 90-degrees to the customer’s experience of a business over time. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1167775571268554752   Permalink 1:55 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Second version pic.twitter.com/G6JZ6DaGKF Permalink 1:51 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@vtchakarova The DNC would rather lose than nominate Tulsi Gabbard. ‘Gabbard actually has skin-in-the-game. She fought for — and earned — everything she’s achieved.’ cc @nntaleb #SITG #TulsiGabbard https://spectator.us/dnc-lose-nominate-tulsi-gabbard/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW”>  pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW Permalink 1:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is there a nonBS education outside of STEM, say in the humanities? Yes, classical languages + Heb/Aramaic/Ar/Sanscrit. French used to select on skills in Latin, not just because of access to texts. It’s because to be really good at Latin one must have read of lot of #Lindy stuff. Permalink 2:26 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected finally. Thanks friends for the detection! pic.twitter.com/syjpKhIc02 Permalink 1:22 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Most influential story, heard when I was a beginning trader: Big trader M runs into a junior in the bathroom. M:”Whatyoudoing today?” “Just bought this bond, Broker A recommended it” M kept shouting “But he’s a f** broker, a f** broker” & fired the trader while in the bathroom. Permalink 12:40 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The #1 skill set is BS detection. Jaffer @Jaffer22915438 fughodaboudit because it is very, very natural to him. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1167119565106614280   Permalink 12:09 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another 2 mistakes: limits ->0 not 1. Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Oops. I changed symbols from \eta to \epsilon when I turned the page. Corrected pic.twitter.com/NFCepkfFbU Permalink 11:36 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Probability du jour: Why you can’t use regression with fat tails. Showing the biases in psychobullshit studies, among others. Added a section to my next book. For error correction. pic.twitter.com/T54cUxjj6v Permalink 11:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@TerrenceMaldick Reading indiscriminately > everything. Best @nntaleb advice ever is: fuck school, just go to a library and “freestyle read” to ur heart’s content. Why? Because reading pre-ordained books makes u only enjoy reading a LITTLE. Freestyle reading teaches u to LOVE reading. Amen Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Autocrat meant, initially, free. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1167726291430326272   Permalink 2:47 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb New section in book: Thin Tails + Fat Tails = Fat Tails, no matter the ratios in the mixing. pic.twitter.com/S3YutONHJs Permalink 2:31 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Typo: they are power law distributed low exponent <2. It is easy to find massaging in the data. Permalink 1:37 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@NealPortenza @nntaleb of all the things you’ve taught me (fat tails, barbell distribution, risk etc), the one thing I remain most grateful for? Squid ink. Allora… pic.twitter.com/kfejEs7k7l Permalink 12:52 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@ggalexsava pic.twitter.com/z2FOmcOda9 Permalink 11:57 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man The accuracy of a forecast is measured only in profits. #blackswanman #theblackswanman @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @HillaryClinton #forecasterrors #elections pic.twitter.com/4xiVxiiHOC Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Apprenticeship: law was not really a university thing. You learn working with doers. #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/nhLa0fa6ie Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Rossy CDG. pic.twitter.com/GFTlqAVA3t Permalink 4:55 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In matters of politics (and love), “never” means “soon”. https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1167384624554749952   Permalink 4:33 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Squared residuals reveal the Winsorizing. They are a power low but someone did something funny to the data. pic.twitter.com/cShdc0KfSD Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@Raddish27 @nntaleb jealous much? #Croatia #ink #Vrbosca pic.twitter.com/OQ2TOogfrQ Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Aug 2019

@BLebnene W hode kamen al3aab kruute bil Libnene: Le3beh 3a Krouteh, Zello ma T2ello, Min El Ghoul (ssuwar min Multiverse, Hamra). pic.twitter.com/GxbCpj3Bnd Permalink 8:15 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Here we go again. The replication crisis is now hitting IQ studies… Used the same approach as I did with fakescholar @sapinker, under recommendation by @yaneerbaryam: first use THEIR own data, then proceed to uncovering theoretical flaws. pic.twitter.com/kQQ3EwFcxh Permalink 1:28 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I find it EXTREMELY racist and offensive to group all non Northern Europeans, or people from non EU members as a single group of “minorities”, where one can substitute for another. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 11:43 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mystery solved. They “manufactured” IQ scores in the NLS79, from “correlation”. Data invalid, only acceptable one is WLS. pic.twitter.com/IrQz0Dtc3B Permalink 10:57 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who (thankfully) don’t know what Jesuitic casuistry is, see below. (BTW my father and grandfather were educated by Jesuits; it has been my dream —for years — to find a Jesuit casuist for a good Twitter fight). pic.twitter.com/HCVSE4eM41 Permalink 1:51 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Send me a photo?” There was a time my childhood, when Jesuit priests had 1) erudition, 2) scholarship, 3) knew science &, most of all, 4) When they engaged in *jesuit* casuistry, they were VASTLY more refined in argument: simply, they weren’t THAT easy to catch. Permalink 1:38 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Fake! St Augustine was a Med. He looked no different from any Sicilian or Maltese. Africa meant “Southern (West) Med”. https://twitter.com/JamesMartinSJ/status/1166701067595407361   Permalink 11:56 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Finally, the IQ question is far, far too simple! Someone incompetent massaged the data at some National Bureau in Washington & psychologists have been using it because it is more favorable to the IQ case. The NLS data is fake. See the blue, compared to Gaussian & Orange (WLS) pic.twitter.com/tVvZ4O9EFD Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Wiki explains Mutual Information more accurately. Key: it works under NONLINEARITIES. And it is additive. And it is concrete in a betting sense. And it is … ergodic! (Enters the Kelly criterion). pic.twitter.com/mDTYxHlG4F Permalink 7:16 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@thackerpd Exclusive: #Monsanto used former top DOJ official involved in Epstein deal to quash felony case by @adamzagorin & @schwellenbach via @YahooNews https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-monsanto-used-former-doj-lawyer-involved-in-epstein-case-to-quash-felony-charges-090028623.html   #Monsanto just can’t stay out of the news. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA”>  pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA Permalink 6:08 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb >150 million “Europeans” are Meds. Meds are a different group. https://twitter.com/Philosophy_Net/status/1166677480305909760?s=20   Permalink 4:51 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The term “white supremacy” is a terrible misnomer; 1) white is indicative of purity not color & 2) does not map to what is called “white” (Caucasian/Western Eurasian) or light skinned (many Asians are light skinned), only to NorthWestern Europe. Best term as replacement: Permalink 4:25 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Also, from Zakorsky’s data, turns out that I was correct (in spite of blog posts by incompetent “data scientists”): Correlation is much lower for higher income. Actually not existent. pic.twitter.com/USGKIQHcDY Permalink 4:03 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@arrington “If your anger decreases with time, you did injustice; if it increases you suffered injustice” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:26 PM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Now entropy methods, Mutual Information, i.e. “how much does someone’s IQ tell you about his/her wealth or income?” or “how much more can you bet on Wealth knowing IQ or vice versa). Answer: “zero”. pic.twitter.com/aw5JeeDoXq Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb On the NY-Continent flight, only 6-7 h.: people eat dinner, then 4 hours later, are served breakfast “so they get strength”. You even have to request explicitly that they do NOT wake you up for breakfast. Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1166093473910415360   Permalink 3:32 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In real weightlifting (no-machines), you largely work out your neural system. It requires yuuuge concentration to push a piece of metal over your head. & it is exhilarating, like a street fight. Low-intensity “routines” on gym treadmills dull your mind, turn you into an academic Permalink 2:30 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am intolerant of BS vendors, even when they are right. And always tolerant of scholars, even when they are wrong. Permalink 1:35 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at the NLS used by Zagorsky, thanks to Beyon Miloyan. Data is invalid, though results similar to ones from WLS. IQ is truncated, income is cooked up. People in Finance learn how to ferret out statistical cooking in <9 minutes of examination. pic.twitter.com/oRAYJM616p Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And the jacknife shows my data is clean. pic.twitter.com/dScs8mKiat Permalink 4:01 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And minutes later, Donaldo got into negotiation mode! https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1166007859064266755?s=20   Permalink 3:20 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@ahshoja Is @realDonaldTrump getting advice from @nntaleb or reading @nntalebbot? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864?s=21   Permalink 1:15 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@NonMeek .@otrasenda_AC @trishankkarthik @nntaleb @Vasilis48814362 Finally found the time to finish what I promised: “Oliver & Trishank vs Skinny IYI Zombies [#ZIYI].” My interpretation I hope you like it. pic.twitter.com/6ymiRNUxuG Permalink 9:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 9:36 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The best so far! Incentives for peace not tawk! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864   Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS #peace #Vienna #Iran #Hayek #Popper #Freud pic.twitter.com/E7WPHX4S83 Permalink 7:16 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kamén la nfham 3a ba3dan: manna jéyin la n7ké bi shi illa l-lgha. Ma fi 3ila2a bi shghlé l téné (w ktbé). https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1165875395666874369   Permalink 6:12 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Now thanks to raw data, I am uncovering something >> more sinister in IQ research. When the slope is + but R^2 is terrible they only show the slope. When R^2 is high but the slope is ~0, they show R^2. When both are bad, they truncate the data, which increases R^2. Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1165945723587895297?s=20   Permalink 5:22 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just to confirm, the thread by a few IQ “data scientists” (who don’t understand R^2) nitpicking my piece is BS. All noise. https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1165925167798710272?s=20   Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who think behavioral economics has been “helpful” (outside consulting fees), some news. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400?s=20   Permalink 3:49 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb To express the trade-off from iatrogenics in a simple heuristic: Take no medicine that does not make you live longer. #antifragile Permalink 3:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Status is zero-sum game. Money is not in free economies. https://twitter.com/naval/status/1165834035601362945   Permalink 12:46 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@MulusewGerb Our 3rd Scientific colloquium titled ‘Antifragile and health care system in Ethiopia’ will be held in October. The idea is based on seminal work of @nntaleb and our speaker will b @MillaAugestine. @Elias_Yesuf @LegeseDadi @ateklu72 #missitnot #antifragile #robustness Permalink 11:47 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Tabula rasa. Let us say someone zapped all books and papers published since 1900 in psychology. Everything. Would it carry the smallest negative impact on your life? Permalink 3:50 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Today’s blog -> Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb SUNSTEIN, my model for the IYI, w/the rigor of an artichoke. Master BS busting applied statistician Andrew Gelman has been dunking on him. At the bottom, Sunstein believes research in psychology should be like a business franchise, to defend by all means. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/08/24/more-on-why-cass-sunstein-should-be-thanking-not-smearing-people-who-ask-for-replications/   Permalink 12:30 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3)Jewish Aramaic:ambiguous שהד or הדס but no apparent link witness = martyr as in Greek. So must be a Christian tradition; supicion that Greek => Christian Aramaic, not reverse. Now entered Arabic شهيد via Syriac. Note “Kornet L Sawda” is corruption of Kornet Shhodé. pic.twitter.com/EDx7Opjx3b Permalink 12:21 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “the best horses lose when they compete with slower ones, and win against better rivals.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) Same in Christian Aramaic: Shhoda=witness and martyr, from the Greek version. Looking for the Jewish/Babylonian Aramaic use. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1165690600504659970?s=20   Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Retranslated; “For the Egyptians, no one illiterate can be a witness”. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1165687785790926848   Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The statements: + > 95% of lethal diseases have a genetic etiology. + > 95% of deaths from disease are environmental. are not incompatible. @PZalloua explained that real world #SITG disciplines (Medicine) don’t take the works of “evolutionary”/DNA (pple a la Plomin) v. seriously. Permalink 10:24 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 8:08 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb At the geneticist @PZalloua’s place in Marounistan. Not a single Byzantine church in the entire zone! Rumophobic but gorgeous scenery. pic.twitter.com/1peIVF9mzA Permalink 6:10 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Fundamental Tail Asymmetry: an illustration using the drop in MERVAL, of how you can accept, never really reject fat tails unless you have some physical law bounding deviations. Adding to the book. [It is Popperian falsification applied to inference] pic.twitter.com/9vB1fTYrjL Permalink 3:55 PM – 24 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Usually, when I go after BS vendors on Twitter, they gain followers. Not here. Need a new BS-vending target both as public service & to make my journey between the republics of Tatarstan & Northern Phoenicia more entertaining. Any suggestion? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1165002900155850753   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Aug 2019

@GaricMoran 1000 PHD’s in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD’s in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates! Permalink 5:13 PM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox church next to a mosque in Kazan’s Kremlin. pic.twitter.com/m5pY6CAo6e Permalink 9:48 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb They are still looking for holes in my IQ is nonsense argument. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 8:34 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connections imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer. ” PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/evankirstel/status/1164575263293956096   Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@bulat_abdrkhmnv @nntaleb посетил Казань и @WorldSkillsKZN и поделился своим видением взгляда в будущее pic.twitter.com/03i5qkkR5g Permalink 12:57 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@TimurShagivalee Wealth comes from technical skills, not from universities Благосостояние происходит из технических навыков, а не из университетов @nntaleb #WorldSkillsKazan2019 100%! pic.twitter.com/BybvnJDRMG Permalink 12:14 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Olympiads of techné (vs epistemé): no BS real world skills vs college w/humanities lecktshurers. pic.twitter.com/TvKrafX5PH Permalink 11:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb News from Kazan: Russians are opening a new university with an expiration date based on comment in #Antifragile. Starts in 2020, ends in 2035. May restart then under a new adaptive program. #worldskills https://2035.university   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard “As president I’ll end the failed war on drugs, legalize marijuana, end cash bail, and ban private prisons and bring about real criminal justice reform. I’ll crack down on the overreaching intel agencies and big tech monopolies who threaten our civil liberties and free speech.” pic.twitter.com/oDMVxbmFbJ Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb By policy, if my BS detector makes me go after someone very hard, it is BECAUSE I know his/her work. For instance, I read everything from Pinker. Psychs are idiots. It is almost never the reverse. pic.twitter.com/Mt3glSucVO Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at Plomin’s work. 1-Knows 0 abt correlation (misses on linearity, transitivity, etc.) 2-Knows 0 abt error propagation & dimensionality, basically multivariate probability. 3-Grossly overestimates heredity (via pairwise twin studies) 4-Doesn’t get IQ score !=intelligence https://twitter.com/WiringTheBrain/status/1164438700891213824   Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@JoostvanderLeij You measure xG for 10K players, then count their goals scored. 2000 of them are dead. Dead players score 0 on xG and 0 on goals. The rest have the xG uncorrelated to the goals. What is the spurious correlation xG/goals? Answer: 37% Adapted from @nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 1:23 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. Permalink 9:36 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@financequant Anyone who had attended the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI seminar led by @nntaleb et al. would already know this. The detailed example we give is a simple discrete recursion that reproduces the fractal structure of the human lung. 1/2 https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1164288469545316353   Permalink 3:18 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People aren’t getting my point. Nothing to do with causation. Correlation requires linearity, does’nt allow subsampling and is very nonlinear. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 9:31 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@RandPaul IT SHOULD BE GETTING AUDITED @realDonaldTrump! https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164174364994080768   Permalink 8:28 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am getting tired of pple lecturing me on “Italian” expressions. “Gabish” is to capisci what “gabagool” is to capicola, and “avangool” to … Permalink 8:23 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@Marvin_3 This has nothing to do with causation. Can you please stop making @nntaleb points for him, sounding like a PARROT. https://www.dropbox.com/s/18pjy7gmz0hl6q7/Correlation.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 6:39 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore. The article has been generalized by eugenists to genetics & heritability. All it can scientifically confirm is the trivial notion that some people are betters than others given same practice in a specific environment. You can’t get to DNA without yuuuge BS. https://twitter.com/mcowartlaw/status/1164148720109268992   Permalink 5:30 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is the fundamental metrics that social scientists don’t seem to get but talk abt like PARROTS. What is correlation? It’s the average of 2 normalized variables MULTIPLIED by one another. In some NARROW circumstances it expresses a statistical association. Which ones? Permalink 5:20 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous BS. Very dangerous. pic.twitter.com/nEXvAudTj1 Permalink 4:33 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb India, please stay away from Cass Sunstein. He is the person behind my original IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) article. https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   https://twitter.com/BMGFIndia/status/1164109205600526338   Permalink 4:15 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@EricRyderMorgan Didn’t expect to find trail running advocacy in Antifragile @nntaleb ! https://twitter.com/Choosing2Thrive/status/1164009447964008449   Permalink 8:03 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/vRBlp3Jua3 Permalink 3:06 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Friends, this is the first draft of my forward for Cippola’s Basic Laws of Stupidity. For comments. Thanks. pic.twitter.com/1QtL00EtoB Permalink 2:51 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Edit: 1830. Permalink 12:11 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A Must! + Arithmetic didn’t initially develop for scientists, but for traders/accountants + Before 1930 Mathematics was about the real world. Then it got concerned with abstraction + Texts hide experiments in math leading to theorems. Ramanujan did experimental math. Even Euler. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1159131413511311361   Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb Permalink 9:31 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2030s? https://twitter.com/Decafquest/status/1163558762575273984   Permalink 8:51 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I spent my life hearing economists telling me “nothing new; we know about convexity”; then they write an rquation missing the fact that a function of an average can’t be an average of functions. Same with fat tails. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1163832062220148736   Permalink 8:20 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@buchmanster Oh cool another picture of a young @nntaleb from when he traded chicken futures https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1163551872457805825   Permalink 8:01 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@ara_anderson Today’s @mathonco research in progress is a double act from @mathoncbro @StroblMAR on The (anti-)fragility of adaptive therapy! Work inspired by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FPbAbhy7FE – at Vincent A. Stabile Research Building Permalink 7:15 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I went after Fannie-Mae in 2003 https://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/07/business/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html   Permalink 5:52 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) I am much stronger than I was at 26. I know a lot more than I did at 26, after eliminating news, only #Lindy books. I speak more languages than I did at 26. I am more independent than I was at 26. but, mostly I made so many mistakes I have more scars than I had at 26. pic.twitter.com/kw1sraiM8p Permalink 5:50 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANTIFRAGILE https://www.parcodellavaldorcia.com/calendar-event/forme-nel-verde-2019-antifragile-inaugurazione-27-luglio/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S”>  pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S Permalink 4:54 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Secrets of longevity: bad birth records. Les secrets des 5 régions championnes de la longévité https://w.lpnt.fr/2330574t   Permalink 2:46 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Taleb #yoga Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Long time ago, an option trader without facial hair, deadlifts & a twitter account. pic.twitter.com/T49rJLK0GT Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Simple 1D problem. Assume 25 siblings have a genetic predisposition to Type 2 diabetes. In a hunter gatherer envir, they will show no correlations w/r to diseases. Move them to Kansas city => high correlation, hence “genetic determinism”. Now think how this blows up in higher D. Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (For the stickler:) matheux= “matheux mais pas mathematicien” Permalink 10:56 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nabilshadman Plausible scenario in jobs without skin in the game. @nntaleb would probably agree. pic.twitter.com/jVKmVbcxMh Permalink 7:44 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Twin studies vastly overestimate heredity: they yield different results from field studies. Reason: they fail to get 2nd order effects & complex interactions, dominant under convexity. Plomin’s studies for IQ are even worse; yuuge flaws mathematically. https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-great-dna-data-deficit/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM”>  pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM Permalink 5:59 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Scholar with #skininthegame https://twitter.com/moudhy/status/1163104799665139718   Permalink 5:40 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb *going into more and more abstract objects.* Permalink 7:25 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3/ Real mathematicians are obsessed with abstraction, going into more and more abstract. “Matheux” like contact and feedback with the concrete. During the Soviet era, mathematicians were forced to prove *some* connection to things, how they were helping the building of the USSR Permalink 7:00 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@VergilDen “Bullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI Permalink 2:54 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075785890935513088?s=20   Permalink 2:48 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Make sure you read this twice. Explain the charlatanism in Plomin’s book. Some pple have know for years that higher dimensions cancel predictability (curse of dim). Now they are finally figuring it out in genetics and neuroscience. https://www.quantamagazine.org/new-turmoil-over-predicting-the-effects-of-genes-20190423/   Permalink 2:47 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2/ I learned from a long career in math finance to never hire mathematicians (PhD in math) to solve math problems or toy with actual equations. You get a better payoff with a “matheux” who studied (undergrad) electrical engineering in India, Russia, Lebanon, or Brazil. Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 1/ The French have a distinction mathematician vs. “matheux”. + The mathematicia(e)n is like someone who composes music; doesn’t have to perform, be good w/instruments. Invents math. + The matheux is someone who plays an instrument; can be a virtuoso but doesn’t compose music. Permalink 1:45 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   https://twitter.com/marcos_moret/status/1163174948443164672   Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Real World Risk Institute We’re opening full and partial scholarships for #RWRI 12. October 28 in NYC. http://www.RealWorldRisk.com   https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1163150438121824256   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: governance declines with scale. Some places more than others. The dream of a “strong nation” that plays geopolitics instead of focusing on law, to facilitate services & commerce is a Baathist disease. Permalink 7:06 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I block anyone who cites Harari as a reference for anything. Worse than Pinker. Gabish? Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR If you introduce unbiased noise in birth records, (keeping average life expectancy the same), you yuuuugely increase the number of fake centenarians. Why? Because the tail doesn’t care about the average as much as the imprecision! https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1   Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Michael Gove is correct. I was told that the movie is an excellent subtitute for the book. https://twitter.com/thinkdefence/status/1163065296745353222   Permalink 5:47 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos I’m starting to empathise with @nntaleb in the vicious way he goes after people. Fuck niceties. The people who think fake meat will just get invented sans consequences are either naive ideologues or sociopaths who think it’s fun to tamper with this billions old ecosystem. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162857527358476289   Permalink 5:20 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb P-Hacking and the distribution of p-values, a 3 year old result still not understood by social “scientists”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   Permalink 4:24 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Please stop the “correlation is not causation” mantra. It’s worse: correlation is not correlation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=60s   Permalink 4:03 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We’re at 162,648! Let’s surprise Tulsi when she gets back from National Guard active duty on August 26 by reaching 170,000! Let’s show her how much grassroots support there truly is for her and for her message of peace and prosperity for all! —TeamTulsi #TULSI2020 Permalink 4:51 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/3326461/88078?stw=2   Permalink 3:54 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity. Permalink 3:43 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many have sent me this tweet; here is my answer. Remember transfats? And another 0000s of these “obviously” safe thingies? I am really scared to live in a society in which people take @sapinker seriously. On anything. That’s all I have to say. pic.twitter.com/PBEs5vMVz6 Permalink 3:34 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@engler_j What a lovely and accurate summary of my work! by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IU6seSTtJa Permalink 2:27 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My Principia Politica is not out yet. Yet its terminology is having some impact! pic.twitter.com/GMxlIGzxAl Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb This is what people don’t get: smaller states don’t have minorities and majority rules eradicating them. Too much 19th century thinking. Actually France wanted Germany to be fragmented in 1945; they thought a Federation would be “weak”. https://twitter.com/BaalTheGreat/status/1162703300141244416?s=20   Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@DrGeneCallahan The Mule: Clint Eastwood becomes cartel’s top drug deliverer by following haphazard schedule. But new guy takes over and makes him follow exact route and timetable. Immediately caught! Over-optimization leads to disaster! @nntaleb Permalink 6:36 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Dr. Sagner @MichaelSagnerMD and I are finalizing a paper on Uncertainty in Medicine, illustrated by the following two studies on treating mild HBP: One showing benefits and the other harm and a third discovering 396 medical reversals. How can lay people can deal with uncertainty? pic.twitter.com/QfwJpOSY25 Permalink 6:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Only #Localism works. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ireland, Czeck Rep., Slovakia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Cyprus… People get along better as neighbors than as roommates. Time for Syrians to understand the large Nation-State with “grandeur” & prestige has failed them, destroyed minorities. Small is beautiful. Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, incompetence wins over conspiracy. Always assume incompetence first. (There still may be some conspiracy.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/epstein-died-of-suicide-by-hanging-medical-examiner-says?srnd=premium   Permalink 4:48 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Syria should understand the notion of cutting the cancer & consider some partition East/West (currently taboo). You cannot spend the next decades taking then retaking Jihadi areas. ما حدا قسم و ندم! @EHSANI22 https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/1162588630654869505   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1162213923673657351   Permalink 4:50 PM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And ignore statements about “math geniuses with High IQ”. 1- how many high IQ can do math? 2- Ramanujan, Groethendieck, Mandelbrot were horrrrrrrible at standardized tests… has a mystical link to math… Permalink 8:34 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Reread and you will find it. Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A metric that ONLY detects “below average” will show 80% correlation with performance. (corrected typos) pic.twitter.com/5N0K0mCDpP Permalink 7:51 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@vtchakarova ‘Skin in the Game’ and ‘Fooled by Randomness’ by @nntaleb in Sofia, Bulgaria. pic.twitter.com/TKrYmnGtWq Permalink 7:50 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A clearer presentation showing how a metric for disease can falsely masquerade as a metric for performance because “correlation” is not appropriate (and should NEVER be used) under nonlinearity. Something the Quillettebeciles don’t get. pic.twitter.com/whcdbdcO2M Permalink 7:39 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@garyruskin #Monsanto acts like it has a lot to hide. It had a 20-page #PR plan on how to “minimize impact of” and “minimize media coverage and publicity of” @careygillam’s book Whitewash, about Monsanto, #glyphosate and #Roundup. http://bit.ly/2Kz7oko   Permalink 3:01 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I’ve blocked trolls on both sides. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1162112002271170560   Permalink 2:39 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Charles Murray is considered a Galileo of the racisticists, someone who provides scientific truths. He is just an intellectual fraud. These mistakes are on a SINGLE page in his book. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS”>  pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS Permalink 1:56 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman is the #1 BS buster in social science. https://twitter.com/Marvin_3/status/1162074581554872321   Permalink 12:03 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Review on Amazon. If you are going to be a BS vendor, make sure to not combine it with “race realism” and eugenics. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X   Permalink 9:47 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@RyanHoliday “You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.” Nassim Taleb Permalink 8:00 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You are wasting time arguing about universal computation/Touring machines with the Quilletebeciles neonazis who interpretet as a blank slate argument. The Quilettebeciles don’t even get that you may bolster their argument since in practice there is a yuuge diff betw processors! Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore journos: they can’t property scale moves, put them in perspective. The SP500 is still up >12% on the year. #SkinintheGame: Have to reveal I’ve been short HLF for more than a year. Fear of missing an opportunity, just in case Ackman turns out to be ultimately right. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@ArtOrthodox Dormition of the Theotokos #DormitionoftheTheotokos #JesusChrist #Theotokos #MotherofGod #Saints #byzantineorthodoxart #byzantine #icons #paintings #art #history #artwork #artworks pic.twitter.com/4npa1czwc7 Permalink 4:19 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@byzantinepower Aspirations of this account: – To extol the spiritual power of Orthodoxy & our ability to create Byz 2.0 Tendencies: – Venice bashing – HRE bashing – mocking idiots – foodpoasting Permalink 3:41 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@sf_LPSP You misunderstand and underestimate Taleb if you think this is any kind of outlierish or burdensome “axe to grind”, or even particularly personal. Taleb’s bread and butter- or rather olive oil- is lopping down logs of bullshit, and the axe is sharp for all comers. Permalink 4:09 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Very safe: I stopped in 2010 having dinners with social scientists. https://twitter.com/profmarkreed/status/1161638008837279745   Permalink 1:54 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) You can be fooled by people, and you can be fooled by fields. For instance I was fooled by behavioral economics… pic.twitter.com/Fuh5od8bjB Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Why universality trumps IQ by @trishankkarthik https://link.medium.com/qi3xFAYD4Y   Permalink 10:57 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Classifying psychology as “science” reminds me of the Reagan Administration’s classification of Ketchup in school cafeterias as “vegetable”. We need to declassify. Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Asymmetry of BS detector: Friends, there have been many situations where I thought someone was solid, then realized I was mistaken as he turned out to be a bullshitter (e.g. NateS,PT,SP…) Can’t find reverse mistake: pple I thought were bullshitters but turned out to be solid. Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”>  pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”>  pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Anyone saying 17 sigmas about Argentina has a problem. pic.twitter.com/n8EryQDePU Permalink 3:17 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos And basically read everything from @nntaleb – His sometimes excessive hostility toward obnoxious academia aside, it’s hard for me to disparage him as he reminds me of every fucking Greek uncle I loved. When that phenotype smells bullshit, they tend to be brutal…and hilarious. Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Dear @WolframResearch, what’s the symbol for the MERVAL? Trying to get data …for obvious reasons. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/XqCpKfLkkR Permalink 1:51 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@gmax1mum Am I the only one that wants a full volume expansion of this section of Skin in the Game? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Gg9LjHi9NS Permalink 1:39 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You should prevent Classic Liberalism from being exploited by the eugenists-“race realists” using it from cover for the Sinister agenda, particularly when they use science. Expurgate. Be tough. Liberty doesn’t entail genetic ranking. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1161283291137368064   Permalink 9:32 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@Firefly_fan Evolution of “Incerto” by @nntaleb (image 1 and 2). Some “affective” anecdote: the smell of black & golden version is very appealling for my hedonic perspective. It seems alive pic.twitter.com/pEB4vwMDTv Permalink 9:26 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Erudition is whatever is not academic in its acquisition and dispensation. In other words, lively, playful, useful, and nonnerdy. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1161290791991611392   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@ektrit Explaining how Christianity spread when 99.9% of people were illiterate, it comes to mind that Taleb @nntaleb cannot be understood unless Erudition is understood. Permalink 7:57 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What does a “(basic) law” mean in economics? Some “laws” seem to be empirical, others normative, some deduced from some arbitrary “principle”, a few pulled out of a hat. Permalink 7:06 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@thebigboulard Via Negativa et Antifragile appliqués à l’IT et à la Transformation digitale http://bit.ly/31KGMD1   via @lemagit @philipducellier @nntaleb Permalink 2:55 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Things are spiraling downward much, much faster than I thought. (This deleted tweet by Lehman Brothers was verified on Google cache; I thought it was a spoof). Next target? Some monstrous BS vending outfit I haven’t targeted yet. pic.twitter.com/OpWkJWAfeX Permalink 6:28 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@normonics No. Life is not a game. A game has explicit rules, constraints, win-states. Life does not. At best, implicit ones, but even then not static, not a given. The IQ obsessed have mistaken their little contrived game world with big messy reality. https://twitter.com/garettjones/status/1161047922793828352   Permalink 4:01 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@MKM_Abdul Meanwhile, a Black Swan quietly landed on Argentina’s stock market with a 48% one-day drop. https://twitter.com/business/status/1161010919008288769   Permalink 2:29 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila! Merci bien. pic.twitter.com/FpJv1WWhE9 Permalink 12:35 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla’s def. + stupid: someone who inflicts costs on others while not bringing benefits to himself/herself, even possibly incurring great costs. + bandit: inflicts costs on others but at some benefits to himself/herself. The stupid is vaaaaastly more dangerous than the bandit. Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/economie/les-etats-unis-doivent-adapter-leur-dispositif-antitrust-aux-geants-d-internet-20190811   (Je n’arrive pas a acheter l’article) Permalink 11:48 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are always some subtle differences between a book and the corresponding film, owing to the requirements of the medium. https://twitter.com/IMAO_/status/1160658967825178624   Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words: Cipolla’s 2nd Law: there is a ratio \sigma of stupid people, in all professions/groups/periods. My Q: is it like econ. inequality, same ratio, but different people? If you came back in 10 y, \sigma has new people (i.e ergodic). Does the stupid survive in group? Permalink 10:22 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Writing a foreword to The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by Cippola: You always underestimate for any time/profession # of incompetent pple. Law: No matter how incompetent an editor is, there will be a pool of readers even more stupid who won’t notice. Q: is stupidity ergodic? https://twitter.com/sobu_18/status/1160946236767264768   Permalink 9:56 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@DonkeyJawPosse Walking via ⁦@nntaleb⁩ pic.twitter.com/dB5VuKgx9n Permalink 6:08 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You hit on something: collective intelligence (groups) is orthogonal to individual ones because of scale transformation. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@MarekADochnal @nntaleb never disappoints in fighting BS in its every living form. But even he isn’t iPhone-proof: see Murrat in his twit: the hybrid of Murray and Marshal Murat, King of Naples Permalink 4:21 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Murray also manages to BS about mathematics. A scholar! pic.twitter.com/loJG4ctyym Permalink 3:50 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Methods of the loci. If you want to remember math stuff, carry a durable physical notebook with standard theorems/graphs. You will associate the equation with a physical page. Permalink 3:07 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There is a book by the Russian psychologist Luria about a prodigy who could remember tons. He mentally used maps 2D ->3D where each object to remember would be placed. When I look at a physical book in my library, I remember the contents! Even more when I hold it in my hands. Permalink 2:43 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Harder to remember stuff read on a screen. Needs 1 more dimension. https://twitter.com/jangold_/status/1160836414797492224   Permalink 2:23 AM – 12 Aug 2019