Monthly Archives: May 2016

Benthem, Precautionary Principle, Monopoly, Bayer, Monsanto, Junk Statistics, Wolfers, Piffle | Twitter

@cfshoo You should be much more ashamed of things you didn’t say than you are of things you said. –Nassim Permalink 3:01 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Easier to get a job in trading/quant/risk if you are a cook than economist. Economists are for networking, gov/nonprofit nonRealWorld. Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 May 2016

@nntaleb Oil is stored solar energy; it is like a battery. The idea is to minimize storage. #RoyalColloquium2016 Permalink 2:51 AM – 25 May 2016

@EmanuelDerman More cleaning up. Lawrence Durrell on Permalink 12:17 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Bentham and the notion of utility see by Marx. Permalink 11:40 PM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb Three intense days on the Precautionary Principle near Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 May 2016

@nntaleb If you want to convince the other side that you won the argument, you have no argument. Permalink 2:26 PM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 4/4 From a long experience observing mergers, management of 1 of the companies is usually outsed; 1 side cashes out. So Agency Problem. Permalink 7:43 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 3/3: Re: Bayer-Monsanto: we have known robustly since 1986 that mergers create negative returns, largely a game by CEOs for own benefit. Permalink 7:41 AM – 23 May 2016

@CAM_SMlTH @nntaleb a good example of this at the moment with Australian supermarkets/dairy farmers and #milkmo   Permalink 7:24 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Greater monopoly is typically suicide for corporations. @CAM_SMlTH Permalink 6:58 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb My betes noires: + MONSANTO – gone ? + SAUDI BARBARIA – on the way + HILLARY MONSANTO-MALMAISON + Economic Departments + GOLDMAN SACHS – Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Bayer, as far as I know, doesn’t engage in as vicious smear campaigns against scientists as Monsanto does. Permalink 6:27 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb So Monsanto is now dead. Bayer for all its ills cannot possibly be as unethical as Monsanto. Good riddance. Permalink 6:02 AM – 23 May 2016

@nntaleb Historia du jour: Many Caliphs were half-Greek (Al-Wathiq, Al-Muntasir, Al-Mu3tadid) and Al-Muhtadi was 3/4 Permalink 5:49 PM – 22 May 2016

@Shinfu Madre mía la interpretación libre y mala que se hace a @nntaleb.   Permalink 1:46 PM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb So far the last example of interventionism with huge unwanted consequences…   Permalink 9:12 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb My co-author & I have data showing that Hedge Funds who blew up in 2007-8 were ~ those w/lowest daily volatility/highest Sharpe. @Sevens_2 Permalink 8:37 AM – 22 May 2016

@Chris_Liss @nntaleb FYI – quoted your prior tweet in a piece I wrote:   Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Mapping Antifragile/convexity for medical responses, as precisely and formally as possible Permalink 8:30 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 When I hear “data driven” I smell mistaking absence for evidence for evidence of absence, a la Pinker.   Permalink 8:27 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bill Gates is not a risk scientist & not a logician;”data driven” meaningless for complex systems/hidden risks w/Turkey Problems @JonHaidt Permalink 8:23 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is a dangerous charlatan. If you keep him on campus you shd also have fortune tellers & palm readers.   Permalink 12:58 AM – 22 May 2016

@nntaleb Supreme rigor of the Russian school of probability: they dealt in inequalities not identities Permalink 2:30 PM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Clearly, Donaldo is not interventionist. Much of the rest, in foreign policy, becomes a detail.   Permalink 10:08 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Everything one does to hide intellectual dishonesty increases dishonesty. When caught lying, @amonck, confess. @Sartor1836 @WLTSchirano Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Liar Adrian Monck, when caught, kept changing the story “not in TBS”, “not in Chapter x”, “not on page x”, etc. @WLTSchirano @amonck Permalink 9:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb MD for “public engagement” @ Davos,Adrian Monck @amonck repeating “no ref to Popper” in T Black Swan. There are 53 mentions of Popper. Liar. Permalink 8:40 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb This tells you the author is a journo. Permalink 6:25 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: To become a mathematican 1- Work w/operators & functionals not just functions 2- in dual spaces 3- measure in proofs 4- what else? Permalink 5:31 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb Same Joseph Stiglitz who said FNMAe had no chance of blowing up. Why we need to close econ departments & restart.   Permalink 5:24 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb It is not just a single tweet that will get Mr Wolfers in trouble #nontrivial … @MadBurry @JustinWolfers @HillaryClinton @bill_easterly Permalink 4:58 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb In probability space, how tail eventsmore effective for threshold dependent outcomes #Medicine @mjd1735 Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2016

@nntaleb How variability can me more effective/more economical @mjd1735 Permalink 4:29 AM – 21 May 2016

@wrathofgnon “Modernity: we created youth without heroism, age without wisdom, and life without grandeur.”— Nassim Nicholas Permalink 5:26 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb …unless you are running for office. Permalink 2:17 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Rule: never immediately attribute to terrorism what can more easily be first explained by incompetence.   Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb The Incerto as a Multidisciplinary project in Probability: how to figure out that things link Permalink 12:34 PM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb For more technical explanation why retire Standard Deviation   Permalink 11:21 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Formalizing #Antifragility in Medicine: Putting together stuff/making notation uniform for Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement “economics is abt making all of us better off” means “economics is abt making ALL economists [bureaucrats/empty suits] better off” Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mark you are tooooo much in a hurry. Interesting things take some time. @GuruAnaerobic @JustinWolfers Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb When someone @justinwolfers living frm charitable contributions judges the knowledge of businessmen #skininthegame   Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers @JustinWolfers & I will soon have an entertaining (possibly one-sided) discussion of probability theory @theYoungerPitt Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 May 2016

@nntaleb Students saying “fat tails” instead of “cheese” at Permalink 3:34 PM – 19 May 2016

@nntaleb As predicted Donaldo having secured thenomination is now going for the left wing votes. Brilliant!   Permalink 6:23 PM – 18 May 2016

@nntaleb This fellow, it now transpired, also works for Monsanto. Explains methods in (failed) smear campaign against me.   Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 May 2016

@beachvetlbc Evidence is- there are NO HUMAN studies to support GMO safety claims & remaining animal studies don’t either @mindlessfunk @kevinfolta Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The full text is at   @RodBerne Permalink 2:45 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A summary of our problem with the junk statistics of Permalink 2:40 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb I am not a UK taxpayer, so I cannot ethically voice an opinion for which I pay no price if wrong. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Looks like the Incerto is finally going to be ONE book (in one boxset)! Don’t tell my publisher I showed it! Permalink 2:00 PM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was 1) not Roman, 2) not Holy, and 3) not an Empire. @sevanslux Permalink 8:34 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb The Roman Empire is centrally a Mediterranean culture, structure, way of being, etc. “Europe” is a much later thingy   Permalink 8:31 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb A clearer point of #Antifragile @mjd1735 Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Mr Wolfers will soon discover that doing probability right is much much harder than it looks. @iMetaldog @JustinWolfers Permalink 7:23 AM – 17 May 2016

@ZbraPntedDonky @nntaleb @mpigliucci @PembertonT Whenever someone leads off “With I haven’t read the book but”, prepare for pretentious piffle. Permalink 4:57 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb Pigliucci has the knee jerk reaction of the academic rat: dismiss w/o knowing. Not scholarly @ZbraPntedDonky @mpigliucci @PembertonT Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 May 2016

@nntaleb It is in Diogenes Laertius (tons of references)   @mpigliucci strikes me as a rationalistic ignoramus @PembertonT Permalink 4:53 AM – 17 May 2016

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb’s “Shillary vs The Donald” Cheat Sheet   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Dear Mr @JustinWolfers do your papers on betting/long shots take account of these biases? Couldn’t find.Thank Permalink 4:01 PM – 16 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb Will this (lazy way) become a 21st century way? Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb If you believe that crank Falkenstein, here is something for you   @z31r4m @Napoleonlegal Permalink 8:42 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Latin du Jour: Where I discover that “asinus asinum fricat” (donkey rubs donkey)translates to “Salma quotes Sabrina”   Permalink 6:46 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer ones. Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb Used a one-tailed dist for x @HarryhongHong Permalink 4:49 AM – 16 May 2016

@nntaleb How we transfer from dose response to probability space. Param a controls fatness of tails. @mjd1735 Permalink 7:45 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan. @hopps3 Permalink 4:46 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer @BoustanyMazen Permalink 3:39 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb Comparing outcomes and foreign policy for Trump vs Hillary in a more rigorous Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 May 2016

@GuruAnaerobic @nntaleb Press hav just done this with Boris Johnson – “Boris has compared EU to Hitler!”. Yet this is what he Permalink 1:02 PM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb We need @holland_tom: From Caesar to Herakles Rome had 7 full centuries of domination of Med, vs ~100 y as a Republic @JohnMinehan1 Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb So, Charlatan Noah @Noahpinion, sorry, but web won’t be a hospitable place for strawmanning/intellectual dishonesty.   Permalink 10:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Tactic by journos: catch them committing straw man they gang up strawman more portraying you “thin skinned”, as this imbecile @TimOBrien Permalink 9:18 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb How Journos are marketing Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb This summarizes how we can introduce a formal view of fragility in Medicine. Any comments? Permalink 7:04 AM – 15 May 2016

@nntaleb 3) If I had to pick the persons in power the most ignorant of complexity/interactions: Henry Kissinger & Hillary Clinton-Monsanto-Malmaison Permalink 8:22 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb 2) I am not saying the US needs an emperor, I am saying the US to stay a true republic should be noninterventionist.   Permalink 8:20 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fact du jour: Rome was the dominant empire & a republic for a short period, 3rd punic war to Rubicon ~90 years. Permalink 8:15 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Sorry. Blocking was done automatically when the PR firm Ketchum was harrassing me; all followers of blocked were autoblocked. @Chris_arnade Permalink 7:14 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Surviving traders can think clearly. Others I am never sure except when I see the math/formal reasoning. Skin in the game. @learnfromerror Permalink 6:30 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This guy has an admirable behavior: he hates my guts & I blocked him. He should be a trader if he isn’t one already.   Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 May 2016

@AmuseChimp would @Noahpinion be as much of a bullshitter if duels still existed? Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Lost all respect for Petraeus: at SALT he said wem shd be forgiving w/SaudiBabaria re 9/11 as “an ally”. Bureaucrats are Morally Nauseating. Permalink 5:12 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb The point is not just the 28 pages linking to Saudi Barbaria, it is what has been taking place SINCE then.   Permalink 5:09 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Retribution should be rare, but when you do it, go for the jugular.   Permalink 5:04 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Five hours left to vote on how to deal with Charlatan Noah Smith @Noahpinion   Permalink 12:44 PM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb This is exactly what I meant. @markmadsen Permalink 10:20 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works slowly in the real world:   @urcum62 Permalink 7:39 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Central limit works very slowly for finite variance infinite higher moments such as cubic @urcum62 Permalink 7:37 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb I never threated. I act first as with Charlatan @noahpinion then threaten when finished. @Fight_Whisperer Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb A generalized sigmoid curve for dose-response in Medicine. Has anyone seen such generalization in lit? Permalink 6:55 AM – 14 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony rarely reacts but when he does so he makes up for it and never stops until the fellows goes into hiding @PaulSkallas @Noahpinion Permalink 6:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If Charlatan Noah Smith @noahpinion smears again   I should expose him with what multiplier? Permalink 6:24 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Balkanization works Balkanization stabilizes Balkanization reduces oppression of minorities @yaneerbaryam @WLTSchirano @joshua_landis Permalink 2:54 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Remember: Turks killed more minorities after their “Westernization” than pripr. Modernism. @davefobare @GrkStav @yaneerbaryam @joshua_landis Permalink 2:08 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Secularism failed in the Levant & Turkey. Best to do an @yaneerbaryam “better fences make better neighbors”. Decentralize! @joshua_landis Permalink 1:48 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb If you smell what I smell there are 17 million Alevis in Turkey. Trad they conceal their faith. So expect more…   Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Question: Do non-initially convex dose-response functions exist in nature? #Medicine #Antifragile Permalink 12:34 PM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Second edition of The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 8:33 AM – 13 May 2016

@nntaleb Solution to the Gibrat vs Mandelbrot problem: When bounded, locally power laws have lognormal tails.   @financequant Permalink 7:28 AM – 13 May 2016

Antifragile Medicine, Las Vegas, Real World Risk, Status, Beirut Madinati, Commons, Ethics | Facebook


In Las Vegas at a conference, I explained fragility as nonlinearity:
mix a $2,000 bottle of wine with a $10 one. The 2 bottles will be worth less than $1,005 each.  5/12/16


Friends, our uberization of education is working, working. We intent to keep it at the artisanal level (no online stuff, no scaling) because we enjoy lecturing and want to keep enjoying the atmosphere. Artisanal is a way of being.

We added a quantitative certificate to the qualitative one we already have. The quantitative certificate is August 15-19 in Stony Brook. More advanced, deeper.

Note that the June 6-10 program has ~ 50 people registered. Note that we gave a certain number of scholarships (more than universities!)


Try to talk to a stranger without signaling your status and see how pleasant you will be to him/her.
This is how salespeople and con men operate. They make you crave their company because you do not feel threatened. 5/12/16


I’d rather live in a place where nothing appears to make sense but things work, rather than in a place where things make sense but don’t work. 5/9/16


If you are in Beirut, please vote for Beirut Madinati in Sunday’s municipal election. They are part of the recent worldwide movement to displace established rent seekers and increase governance.
As you can observe, not one of them is wearing a tie.

Note that, in a globalized world, municipal rule is central. We are inching back to the autonomous Phoenician city states.

PS- I do not vote in Beirut (I am registered in my ancestral village Amioun although my grandfather moved to Beirut in 1922).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's photo.


The best definition of a commons: a space in which you are treated by others the way you treat them.

This continues the previous conversation and connects the commons to skin in the game and golden and silver rules. 5/5/15


What I picked up from Elinor Ostrom is that the private and the public are not the only two entities. There is something called a “commons” in between. As with any complex systems, people behave differently at a different scale. This explains why the municipal is different from the national. It also explains how tribes operate: you are part of a specific group that is larger than the narrow *you*, but narrower than humanity in general.

People share some things *but not others* withing a specified group. And there is a protocol for dealing with the outside. Arab pastoral tribes have firm rules of hospitality towards nonhostile strangers who don’t threaten their commons, but get violent when the stranger is a threat.

The “public good” is something abstract, taken out of a textbook. Everything abstract fails. To repeat, scale, rather than type of regime, is the prime explanation of the flop of communism.

PS – One of the themes in SKIN IN THE GAME is that the “individual” is ill-defined an entity. “Me” is more likely to be a group than a single person. Note that the scale transformation (a group doesn’t have the preferences of an individual) brings us to the flaw in the “selfish gene” theory, which was shown to be mathematically shody by E.O. Wilson and Nowak as well as Yaneer Bar-Yam. 5/3/16


You can very easily distinguish real philosophers and scientists from the CV-building, academic rat variety. The real thing tell you what they are *trying* to figure out, not what they *did* in past career. 4/30/16


Admonish your friends in private; praise them in public. And distrust anyone who does the reverse.

(Secrete amicos admone; lauda palam.) 4/28/16


Someone saying “ethics is good for success” is missing the entire point of ethics.  4/19/16


Added a page as public service (he will now leave me alone, this is to protect others, preserve the integrity of the system)
This is the minority rule: it takes only a few very very intolerant and tenacious people to make the system more honest.  4/18/16


Friends, this is what I wrote in The Black Swan about rare events: they are very difficult to assess probabilistically. Not underpriced: hard to price, hence one should avoid being fragile to them. 4/15/16

Accordingly I have asked for a formal retraction of an article by Noah Smith (someone who has been spreading nonsense for years) and who apparently has not read the book.…/everyone-worries-too-much-ab…
Added a page:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's photo.

Smear Artists, Cauchy, SALT, Zipf Plot, Long Shot Bias, Random Matrices, Diderot, ZeroHedge

@nntaleb Las Vegas: Explained fragility as concavity: Mix a $2,000 bottle of wine with a $10 one. The 2 bottles will be worth less than $1,005 each. Permalink 8:31 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Explained more technically why investors can’t get the alpha of the market   and on BBG TV   Permalink 4:39 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb When Charlatan @Noahpinion you unite with other charlatans & trolls, I will also unite them with you. Kapish?   Permalink 3:26 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb So if you claim some is not expert about a given subject, better know something about *that* subject. Kapish? @diane1859 Permalink 3:11 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb You know nothing abt physics yet claimed the subject was limited outside finance, not noticing your BS   @diane1859 Permalink 3:08 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb The full paper   Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb A list of smear artists and why it is necessary to expose a very small number of people.   Permalink 2:23 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Las Vegas: Difference between ensemble probability and time probability under tail risk.   Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb at SALT in Las Vegas, only person in jeans (no tie). Taleb Compares Monetary Policy to Drugs   via @business Permalink 10:50 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Many use statistical distributions a la @saPinker, w/o understanding probability, like parrots memorize sentences. @DrCirillo @financequant Permalink 10:48 AM – 12 May 2016

@financequant @DrCirillo @nntaleb Academic now but started out as trader/investor managing own+firm capital: skin in the game trains the bullshit detector Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Every model that has layering uncertainty (error on error) ends up with power law @DrCirillo Permalink 6:42 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Can confirm not true: Cauchy is not the only smooth survival Permalink 6:06 AM – 12 May 2016

@GMWatch Kevin Folta explained to Monsanto how they should fund his project so that it would not have to be publicly reported   Permalink 5:40 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Found the Platonic distribution on R (i.e. “smooth”) that is neither fat tailed nor thin Permalink 5:40 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Relax. We had an actor w/Alzheimer in the White House and many people claim things went v. well. A surviving real estate developer is picnic Permalink 9:00 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Try to talk to a stranger without signaling your status & see how pleasant you will be to him/her. This is how salespeople operate. Permalink 1:36 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Today in my SALT talk I am showing the 2 flaws in Goetzmann’s paper. 1) Lucretius problems, 2) Mistake of ergodicity. @WGoetzmann Permalink 1:18 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb I also thought Goetzman knew something about probability distributions @WGoetzmann   Permalink 1:15 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb 1) I thought Goetzmann knew Noah Smith is a charlatan   @WGoetzmann Permalink 1:12 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb To escape the Las Vegas surroundings, dip into mathematics/space of functions with certain properties:   Permalink 5:20 AM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Ethical rule: you can only turn down an honor or a prize privately, never publicly. Permalink 3:25 PM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb “Shortcuts lead to vice, the long road to virtue”: Compendaria res improbitas, virtus longa. (Optimization is the mother of all collapses) Permalink 12:42 PM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Europa was the daughter of a Phoenician king. @noairbag @holland_tom @classicsforall Permalink 11:51 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb In 4th C Athens Sidonians were not considered metics and had same rights as Athenians. @holland_tom @classicsforall Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Not a single person who contests that Leb speak Semitic dialect descended from Aramaic speaks Aramaic @G_Exercitus   Permalink 7:48 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb A glimpse of our book on fat tails… our graphical book on fat tails.   Permalink 7:03 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb The illusion is to call any Semitic dialect that is not Hebrew as “Arabic” when speaker knows Arabic not Aramaic.   Permalink 6:53 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb A reporter knows the inside of evil Monsanto   # via @HuffPostGreen Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Acondition to me a member of Diplomatic Corp is defect in logical wiring (Samantha Power, Clinton, this idiot):   Permalink 5:17 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Δεν είναι αραβικά αλλά Δυτική ή Ανατολική Αραμαϊκά   Permalink 5:05 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a place where nothing makes sense but things work rather than a place where things make sense but don’t work #Antifragile Permalink 2:19 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb So now we are announcing our advanced certificate August 10-14 Stony Brook.   Permalink 1:25 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb 24 anni di pratica Galabrez, una lingua comunemente noto come “Calabrese” con il barbiere Permalink 12:53 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb More on How to Price Long Shots Permalink 10:51 AM – 9 May 2016

@DrCirillo It’s extremely alarming that so many scientists do not know how to correctly design a statistical test and how to interpret its results. Permalink 8:31 AM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb A pedagogical Monte Carlo explanation (corrected) Permalink 1:25 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb cont the declining case (fragility) @markomanka Permalink 12:43 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Next, an aggressive claim that EVERYTHING in nature can be expressed as a sum of S functions. @markomanka Permalink 12:28 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Final Permalink 7:41 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Corrected 2 typos @Teheozavr Permalink 6:39 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement of *a priori* truths in medicine, (but not 17th C. style), for @markomanka’s Springer Handbook. Mistakes? Permalink 6:27 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Uncertainty about probability raises the value of long shots in proportion to the variance [metaprobability] @matthewsyed Permalink 5:30 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Some explanations of the Leicester payoff from notes: the “Long Shot Bias” seems to be miscalculated by Permalink 5:18 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Always nice to see books of Tom Holland @holland_tom on bookshelves at Permalink 5:32 PM – 7 May 2016

@nntaleb Why we are uberizing education. This system is strating to collapse.   Permalink 7:28 AM – 7 May 2016

@nntaleb One can solve complicated mathematical ineq. by tinkering before proof. Thank you @WolframResearch   @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:48 PM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Is anyone covering shorts in HLF? It is still slightly hard to Permalink 12:03 PM – 6 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 10:03 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb The candidates of @BeirutMadinati. Not one of them wearing a tie. Permalink 7:23 AM – 6 May 2016

@SwarajyaMag Swarajya Quote Of The Permalink 11:12 PM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb A reminder to vote for @BeirutMadinati On Sunday.   (although I am 3rd generation Beiruti I am registered in Amioun) Permalink 6:12 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb For the earlier use of doxa in Classical & Preclassica Greek: clearly opinion   Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Allora: Epistemic Belief => Science Pisteic Belief => Trust (Religion, Legends, Literature) Doxastic belief => Skin in the Game Belief Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb To understand religious “belief”: evolution of δόξα from “opinion” to “glorification”. Permalink 5:22 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb The best definition of a commons: a space in which you are treated by others the way you treat them.   Permalink 5:05 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Спасибо! Russia Stages Classical Concert in Recaptured Palmyra Amphitheater –   via @ABC Permalink 12:57 PM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb The PDF of the book will be free. Like all our papers. And Silent Risk. Another advantage of self publishing.   Permalink 7:23 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Writing a tutorial book on Fat Tails w/@DrCirillo. W/self-publishing we control price ~$20 & paper quality. Shd we? Permalink 7:18 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman: “statistical incompetence at some sufficient level becomes indistinguishable from fraud”. (paraphrased) Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb When Brian Eno sent me a chain letter about Black Swans and I put Stewart Brand next.   Permalink 6:14 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb I am intolerant, intolerant, intolerant of intellectual fraud. The world is run by ethically intolerant minorities.   Permalink 5:16 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb There is a whole page for our Precautionary Principle   @impcapital @stewartbrand @MKM_Abdul Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb I don’t mind people who talk “long run”, but some exploit our desire for sustainability to INCREASE risk. @stewartbrand @MKM_Abdul Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Stewart Brand @stewartbrand is a dangerous, dangerous, dangerous fraud! @MKM_Abdul Permalink 3:43 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tails du Jour: Random Matrices do not obey Wigner’s semicircle law; effect on #BigData Permalink 3:34 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb “Delusional” a month ago. Expect more stuff like that.   Permalink 2:47 PM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Another way to see central limit in action! Or why the CLT fails for power laws <2   Permalink 10:55 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto is about as dirty as a corporation can be.Forced a paper to fire cartoonist. Note they own Hillary/Shillary   Permalink 8:28 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Anyone heeding journos for next w/Trump has a mental defect, given journos’ blindness in ENTIRE episode (“matter of weeks until T deflates”) Permalink 4:20 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb The systematic wrecking of the old order now spreading to Beirut. Please support @BeirutMadinati for the elections.   Permalink 3:40 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Golf: an activity that was banned in Sparta for “mollifying” its practitioners.   Permalink 11:30 AM – 3 May 2016

@DrCirillo The fence paradox: we feel safe, we are not. Financial regulations are like fences: they just hide Permalink 8:53 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb Our NY June Certif. prog has already >44 pple; we are preparing a v. technical version August 15-19 in Stony Brook.   Permalink 5:26 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb We expect Jews in pre-Islamic Arabia. Here A school of 7th century Syriac writers in Qatar. Mario Kozah Permalink 4:42 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb P.S. You see from above that these posts (written in 10 min) have 300K viewees, > most NYT articles. The press is increasingly irrelevant. Permalink 4:34 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb TTIP: Lobbyists control bureaucrats; citizens react. We can’t be easily fooled. These documents could kill TTIP   Permalink 1:40 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb No, BS vendor Sharro, some pple characterize phenomena *before* they happen.& they do so scientifically, not w/blogs   Permalink 1:37 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb Email:”Why do you spell Kapish instead of capisce?” A: Kapish,like prozhut & gabagool aren’t in Italian,but in Kalabrez still spoken in NY. Permalink 5:32 PM – 2 May 2016

@MarcosCarreira   cc @nntaleb Permalink 10:42 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Se volevo insultarti in italiano ti avrei chiamato un “coglione”. @Keynesblog @SanguineEmpiric Permalink 7:39 AM – 2 May 2016

@thickopedia Rather than create conditions for organic innovation & growth, buraucrats think they can make them with subsidies.   Permalink 5:53 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Basic income:a necessity when robots get the jobs & their designers get the shekels. Like Athens but slaves=robots @wimgrommen @Johnicholas Permalink 5:27 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Soul in the game. @pareekhjain Permalink 5:02 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb In other words it is not because successful innovations have had funding that there is a causal link. Innovate first, fund later. Permalink 4:47 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb The link betw investment and innovation is very tenuous, mostly in the minds of bureaucrats Permalink 4:02 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Doesn’t say public is even better at detecting BS vendors: least prestigious are PR people, journos, politicians   Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Max Abrahams knows his stuff. He rediscovered things compatible with minority rules, renormalization, etc.   Permalink 4:36 PM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Anyone who thinks you need “investments” to fund “innovation” is an empty suit B-School prof. Apple/FB/MSFT, etc.   Permalink 3:48 PM – 1 May 2016

@GhassanDahhan @nntaleb An art critic is not an artist. Yet people who write books about philosophy believe they’re philosophers. Permalink 7:49 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Why ISIS will eventually run Saudi Arabia: royal family violates rules of human cultism & uses Wahabism for power.   Permalink 4:34 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb There are philosophers who never wrote anything; & there are a lot of writers of philosophy who aren’t philosophers.   Permalink 4:02 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb The Baath Party in Syria’s “Arabization” program ignored the 40+ Syrian philosophers who wrote in Permalink 3:53 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria’s billboard in Lebanon “Greatness of KSA frm the *greatness* of its men”; 3 “great” royals Permalink 3:38 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Antifragile   Permalink 2:59 AM – 1 May 2016

@Jeff_Fine @nntaleb @MaxAbrahms @samfbiddle @worldpeace Permalink 1:41 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Comment: I will invest in the business of efficient demolition of post 1960 structures as they will be replaced w/more fractal architecture. Permalink 12:57 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Thank God Alfred Nobel discovered dynamite. #Lindyeffect   Permalink 12:55 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Xristos Anesti to all Orthodox people & others who celebrate! — Mshu7o d’qam min qabro [in West. Aramaic] Msi7 qam min qabro [in Levantine] Permalink 10:10 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The house on the top right is the ancestral home of the australian governor Marie Bashir (my grandfather’s cousin)   Permalink 7:21 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I vote for Douma as the most attractive village in North Permalink 7:15 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Probability du Jour: The empirical distribution as a Brownian Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 “Diderot: “…people tell me that I have the air of a man perpetually seeking something he lacks”. Permalink 4:36 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb People don’t get false positives are *necessary* to have results. The alternative is is more terrorism acts.   Permalink 3:18 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You can tell real scientists from CV-builders: the real thing tell you what they are *trying* to figure out, not what they *did* in career. Permalink 3:17 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It is remarkable how little it costs to buy Washington. As Monsanto realized, return >>> than R&D.   Permalink 4:20 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb No surprise. Remember the lowly standards of Bloomberg as they did not retract this   @GTCost Permalink 3:33 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I do not delete my tweets and do not fear you journos. They autodelete >90d. Kapish? Do your F*** homework, journo. @caitlindewey Permalink 3:19 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR. Orthodox lent allows squid/squid ink! It is vegan, but allows squid ink! Discovered on last day!   Permalink 2:32 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 For discussion… It is a very casual observation. First, is it true for all Lebanon or just Koura?   Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mystery? In N. Lebanon, shrines for St George in Greek-Orthodox areas, for Mary in Maronite ones Permalink 12:41 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Since twitter accounts of Syrian rebels is run by a Saudi-funded PR firm in DC, what can we expect from Wstrn media?   Permalink 10:03 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Try to remember when reading anything written by a journalist (especially a science journalist) that he is *by definition* an impostor. Permalink 8:34 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I thank @BeirutMadinati for bringing a hope of governance & call on the Lebanese diaspora to help them. #BeirutMadinati Permalink 8:18 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because we buy oil from Saudi Barbaria, what they do in Yemen is OK. Russia is “autoritarian”. Hypocrites. @robggill @zerohedge Permalink 7:45 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb ZeroHedge: last bastion outside the stamp of the bureaucratestablishment. Bloomberg (again) failed a hacket job.   Permalink 7:25 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb He is right: Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison represents everything that’s fake in governance-free bureaucratistan.   Permalink 7:02 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The reason commerce flourished in the Levant was thanks to Francis I’s deal with the Sultan (“echelles du Levant”) @peterfrankopan Permalink 12:39 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Encountered @peterfrankopan’s relative (ancstr?), emissary on the silk road, in the 1526 Franco-Ottoman Alliance.   Permalink 12:34 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A7san shi tele3 min jdid 3enna bi Lebnen w bled el Shem #BeirutMadinati sawwtulon! 3enna amal 3a musta2balna. Sawwto la #BeirutMadinati Permalink 12:05 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Yes see Taleb and Ruffie, 1965: Etudes hemotypiques des ethnies Libanaises @faizkatt @raytheonunited Permalink 12:04 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Where we show that the reciprocal of some fat tailed is…Gaussian! Permalink 4:09 PM – 28 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Admonish your friends in private; paise them in public. Distrust anyone who does the reverse. (Secrete amicos admone; lauda palam.) Permalink 4:16 AM – 28 Apr 2016

@jdoleiv @nntaleb twitter allows me to follow skin in the game participants rather than just sideline journos. Game changer. Permalink 2:46 AM – 28 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Correction (3d version) L’3am yitjahalak mush 3am yensak Permalink 1:11 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Correction: L’3am yitjahalak mush 3am yijhalak Permalink 12:32 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb L’3am yijhalak mush 3am yijhalak [Translation is open to improvement] Permalink 12:27 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Latkazzeb 3al kizzeb Yfakkerak bitsad2o. لتكزب علكزاب يفاكراك بتسدقوا Permalink 11:49 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My policy is to block anyone who mentions “proof” and “aphorism” in the same breath. Makes life cleaaaaaaaaaaarer!   Permalink 11:27 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بتعور الطايش بمعرفتوا [Attempts to translate into Levantine] Permalink 11:13 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb يلي بعرقلك شوي بأخرك كتير Permalink 11:06 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb اول شي نقبل انوا ١) الشامي(المشرقي) لغه مش “لهجة” ٢) اللغة الشامية اعتق من العربي! (ولو فيا ٣٠ \١٠٠ كلمات عربي) ٣) اللغة بتبلش بالأدب Permalink 10:45 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بقبل الحرف السامي للشامي (هوي اسرع للكتابة) بس لل إنترنت بددك تستعمل اللاتيني حتا مايكتبو بل انكليزي @AssalehAmer @adnanhobalah @ZJourei Permalink 10:39 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Kill shi bi3ar2l shwayy bi2a55er ktiyr @AssalehAmer @adnanhobalah @crackmandem @ZJoureir Permalink 10:04 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Iza baddak ahl el balad yektbo bil-legha 3a facebook w social media sahhillun yeha. @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Iza me7tar 3a kitebet elshami bil7arf el-latine shouf el inklise “dough” “rough” w kelmet heik. @ZJoureir @adnanhobalah Permalink 1:28 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb For potential slayers of evil dragons such as Monsanto Ralph Nader’s citizen advocacy group mega-event May 23-26   Permalink 5:11 AM – 26 Apr 2016

@linaadali John the Grammarian as the Byzantine ambassador to the Abbasids before caliph al-Ma’mūn (left) & emperor Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Said values include the firm belief that Shiites & *others* are deviant.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Debunking some nonsense in the measurement of inequality. Final results. Permalink 11:50 PM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Palm Sunday in Damascus 7 km from ISIS   Permalink 8:50 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A Graeco- Roman temple 2 miles outside Amioun. No pagan worshippers this morning except for yours Permalink 2:52 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb From experience, never trust the UK press.   Permalink 1:37 AM – 24 Apr 2016