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Smear Artists, Cauchy, SALT, Zipf Plot, Long Shot Bias, Random Matrices, Diderot, ZeroHedge

@nntaleb Las Vegas: Explained fragility as concavity: Mix a $2,000 bottle of wine with a $10 one. The 2 bottles will be worth less than $1,005 each. Permalink 8:31 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Explained more technically why investors can’t get the alpha of the market   and on BBG TV   Permalink 4:39 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb When Charlatan @Noahpinion you unite with other charlatans & trolls, I will also unite them with you. Kapish?   Permalink 3:26 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb So if you claim some is not expert about a given subject, better know something about *that* subject. Kapish? @diane1859 Permalink 3:11 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb You know nothing abt physics yet claimed the subject was limited outside finance, not noticing your BS   @diane1859 Permalink 3:08 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb The full paper   Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb A list of smear artists and why it is necessary to expose a very small number of people.   Permalink 2:23 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Las Vegas: Difference between ensemble probability and time probability under tail risk.   Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb at SALT in Las Vegas, only person in jeans (no tie). Taleb Compares Monetary Policy to Drugs   via @business Permalink 10:50 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Many use statistical distributions a la @saPinker, w/o understanding probability, like parrots memorize sentences. @DrCirillo @financequant Permalink 10:48 AM – 12 May 2016

@financequant @DrCirillo @nntaleb Academic now but started out as trader/investor managing own+firm capital: skin in the game trains the bullshit detector Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Every model that has layering uncertainty (error on error) ends up with power law @DrCirillo Permalink 6:42 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Can confirm not true: Cauchy is not the only smooth survival Permalink 6:06 AM – 12 May 2016

@GMWatch Kevin Folta explained to Monsanto how they should fund his project so that it would not have to be publicly reported   Permalink 5:40 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Found the Platonic distribution on R (i.e. “smooth”) that is neither fat tailed nor thin Permalink 5:40 AM – 12 May 2016

@nntaleb Relax. We had an actor w/Alzheimer in the White House and many people claim things went v. well. A surviving real estate developer is picnic Permalink 9:00 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Try to talk to a stranger without signaling your status & see how pleasant you will be to him/her. This is how salespeople operate. Permalink 1:36 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Today in my SALT talk I am showing the 2 flaws in Goetzmann’s paper. 1) Lucretius problems, 2) Mistake of ergodicity. @WGoetzmann Permalink 1:18 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb I also thought Goetzman knew something about probability distributions @WGoetzmann   Permalink 1:15 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb 1) I thought Goetzmann knew Noah Smith is a charlatan   @WGoetzmann Permalink 1:12 PM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb To escape the Las Vegas surroundings, dip into mathematics/space of functions with certain properties:   Permalink 5:20 AM – 11 May 2016

@nntaleb Ethical rule: you can only turn down an honor or a prize privately, never publicly. Permalink 3:25 PM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb “Shortcuts lead to vice, the long road to virtue”: Compendaria res improbitas, virtus longa. (Optimization is the mother of all collapses) Permalink 12:42 PM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Europa was the daughter of a Phoenician king. @noairbag @holland_tom @classicsforall Permalink 11:51 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb In 4th C Athens Sidonians were not considered metics and had same rights as Athenians. @holland_tom @classicsforall Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Not a single person who contests that Leb speak Semitic dialect descended from Aramaic speaks Aramaic @G_Exercitus   Permalink 7:48 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb A glimpse of our book on fat tails… our graphical book on fat tails.   Permalink 7:03 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb The illusion is to call any Semitic dialect that is not Hebrew as “Arabic” when speaker knows Arabic not Aramaic.   Permalink 6:53 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb A reporter knows the inside of evil Monsanto   # via @HuffPostGreen Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Acondition to me a member of Diplomatic Corp is defect in logical wiring (Samantha Power, Clinton, this idiot):   Permalink 5:17 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb Δεν είναι αραβικά αλλά Δυτική ή Ανατολική Αραμαϊκά   Permalink 5:05 AM – 10 May 2016

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a place where nothing makes sense but things work rather than a place where things make sense but don’t work #Antifragile Permalink 2:19 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb So now we are announcing our advanced certificate August 10-14 Stony Brook.   Permalink 1:25 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb 24 anni di pratica Galabrez, una lingua comunemente noto come “Calabrese” con il barbiere Permalink 12:53 PM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb More on How to Price Long Shots Permalink 10:51 AM – 9 May 2016

@DrCirillo It’s extremely alarming that so many scientists do not know how to correctly design a statistical test and how to interpret its results. Permalink 8:31 AM – 9 May 2016

@nntaleb A pedagogical Monte Carlo explanation (corrected) Permalink 1:25 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb cont the declining case (fragility) @markomanka Permalink 12:43 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Next, an aggressive claim that EVERYTHING in nature can be expressed as a sum of S functions. @markomanka Permalink 12:28 PM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Final Permalink 7:41 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Corrected 2 typos @Teheozavr Permalink 6:39 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Statement of *a priori* truths in medicine, (but not 17th C. style), for @markomanka’s Springer Handbook. Mistakes? Permalink 6:27 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Uncertainty about probability raises the value of long shots in proportion to the variance [metaprobability] @matthewsyed Permalink 5:30 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Some explanations of the Leicester payoff from notes: the “Long Shot Bias” seems to be miscalculated by Permalink 5:18 AM – 8 May 2016

@nntaleb Always nice to see books of Tom Holland @holland_tom on bookshelves at Permalink 5:32 PM – 7 May 2016

@nntaleb Why we are uberizing education. This system is strating to collapse.   Permalink 7:28 AM – 7 May 2016

@nntaleb One can solve complicated mathematical ineq. by tinkering before proof. Thank you @WolframResearch   @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:48 PM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Is anyone covering shorts in HLF? It is still slightly hard to Permalink 12:03 PM – 6 May 2016

@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 10:03 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb The candidates of @BeirutMadinati. Not one of them wearing a tie. Permalink 7:23 AM – 6 May 2016

@SwarajyaMag Swarajya Quote Of The Permalink 11:12 PM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb A reminder to vote for @BeirutMadinati On Sunday.   (although I am 3rd generation Beiruti I am registered in Amioun) Permalink 6:12 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb For the earlier use of doxa in Classical & Preclassica Greek: clearly opinion   Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Allora: Epistemic Belief => Science Pisteic Belief => Trust (Religion, Legends, Literature) Doxastic belief => Skin in the Game Belief Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb To understand religious “belief”: evolution of δόξα from “opinion” to “glorification”. Permalink 5:22 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb The best definition of a commons: a space in which you are treated by others the way you treat them.   Permalink 5:05 AM – 6 May 2016

@nntaleb Спасибо! Russia Stages Classical Concert in Recaptured Palmyra Amphitheater –   via @ABC Permalink 12:57 PM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb The PDF of the book will be free. Like all our papers. And Silent Risk. Another advantage of self publishing.   Permalink 7:23 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Writing a tutorial book on Fat Tails w/@DrCirillo. W/self-publishing we control price ~$20 & paper quality. Shd we? Permalink 7:18 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman: “statistical incompetence at some sufficient level becomes indistinguishable from fraud”. (paraphrased) Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb When Brian Eno sent me a chain letter about Black Swans and I put Stewart Brand next.   Permalink 6:14 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb I am intolerant, intolerant, intolerant of intellectual fraud. The world is run by ethically intolerant minorities.   Permalink 5:16 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb There is a whole page for our Precautionary Principle   @impcapital @stewartbrand @MKM_Abdul Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb I don’t mind people who talk “long run”, but some exploit our desire for sustainability to INCREASE risk. @stewartbrand @MKM_Abdul Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Stewart Brand @stewartbrand is a dangerous, dangerous, dangerous fraud! @MKM_Abdul Permalink 3:43 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tails du Jour: Random Matrices do not obey Wigner’s semicircle law; effect on #BigData Permalink 3:34 AM – 5 May 2016

@nntaleb “Delusional” a month ago. Expect more stuff like that.   Permalink 2:47 PM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Another way to see central limit in action! Or why the CLT fails for power laws <2   Permalink 10:55 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Monsanto is about as dirty as a corporation can be.Forced a paper to fire cartoonist. Note they own Hillary/Shillary   Permalink 8:28 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Anyone heeding journos for next w/Trump has a mental defect, given journos’ blindness in ENTIRE episode (“matter of weeks until T deflates”) Permalink 4:20 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb The systematic wrecking of the old order now spreading to Beirut. Please support @BeirutMadinati for the elections.   Permalink 3:40 AM – 4 May 2016

@nntaleb Golf: an activity that was banned in Sparta for “mollifying” its practitioners.   Permalink 11:30 AM – 3 May 2016

@DrCirillo The fence paradox: we feel safe, we are not. Financial regulations are like fences: they just hide Permalink 8:53 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb Our NY June Certif. prog has already >44 pple; we are preparing a v. technical version August 15-19 in Stony Brook.   Permalink 5:26 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb We expect Jews in pre-Islamic Arabia. Here A school of 7th century Syriac writers in Qatar. Mario Kozah Permalink 4:42 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb P.S. You see from above that these posts (written in 10 min) have 300K viewees, > most NYT articles. The press is increasingly irrelevant. Permalink 4:34 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb TTIP: Lobbyists control bureaucrats; citizens react. We can’t be easily fooled. These documents could kill TTIP   Permalink 1:40 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb No, BS vendor Sharro, some pple characterize phenomena *before* they happen.& they do so scientifically, not w/blogs   Permalink 1:37 AM – 3 May 2016

@nntaleb Email:”Why do you spell Kapish instead of capisce?” A: Kapish,like prozhut & gabagool aren’t in Italian,but in Kalabrez still spoken in NY. Permalink 5:32 PM – 2 May 2016

@MarcosCarreira   cc @nntaleb Permalink 10:42 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Se volevo insultarti in italiano ti avrei chiamato un “coglione”. @Keynesblog @SanguineEmpiric Permalink 7:39 AM – 2 May 2016

@thickopedia Rather than create conditions for organic innovation & growth, buraucrats think they can make them with subsidies.   Permalink 5:53 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Basic income:a necessity when robots get the jobs & their designers get the shekels. Like Athens but slaves=robots @wimgrommen @Johnicholas Permalink 5:27 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Soul in the game. @pareekhjain Permalink 5:02 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb In other words it is not because successful innovations have had funding that there is a causal link. Innovate first, fund later. Permalink 4:47 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb The link betw investment and innovation is very tenuous, mostly in the minds of bureaucrats Permalink 4:02 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Doesn’t say public is even better at detecting BS vendors: least prestigious are PR people, journos, politicians   Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 May 2016

@nntaleb Max Abrahams knows his stuff. He rediscovered things compatible with minority rules, renormalization, etc.   Permalink 4:36 PM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Anyone who thinks you need “investments” to fund “innovation” is an empty suit B-School prof. Apple/FB/MSFT, etc.   Permalink 3:48 PM – 1 May 2016

@GhassanDahhan @nntaleb An art critic is not an artist. Yet people who write books about philosophy believe they’re philosophers. Permalink 7:49 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Why ISIS will eventually run Saudi Arabia: royal family violates rules of human cultism & uses Wahabism for power.   Permalink 4:34 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb There are philosophers who never wrote anything; & there are a lot of writers of philosophy who aren’t philosophers.   Permalink 4:02 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb The Baath Party in Syria’s “Arabization” program ignored the 40+ Syrian philosophers who wrote in Permalink 3:53 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria’s billboard in Lebanon “Greatness of KSA frm the *greatness* of its men”; 3 “great” royals Permalink 3:38 AM – 1 May 2016

@nntaleb Antifragile   Permalink 2:59 AM – 1 May 2016

@Jeff_Fine @nntaleb @MaxAbrahms @samfbiddle @worldpeace Permalink 1:41 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Comment: I will invest in the business of efficient demolition of post 1960 structures as they will be replaced w/more fractal architecture. Permalink 12:57 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Thank God Alfred Nobel discovered dynamite. #Lindyeffect   Permalink 12:55 PM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Xristos Anesti to all Orthodox people & others who celebrate! — Mshu7o d’qam min qabro [in West. Aramaic] Msi7 qam min qabro [in Levantine] Permalink 10:10 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The house on the top right is the ancestral home of the australian governor Marie Bashir (my grandfather’s cousin)   Permalink 7:21 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I vote for Douma as the most attractive village in North Permalink 7:15 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Probability du Jour: The empirical distribution as a Brownian Permalink 6:36 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 “Diderot: “…people tell me that I have the air of a man perpetually seeking something he lacks”. Permalink 4:36 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb People don’t get false positives are *necessary* to have results. The alternative is is more terrorism acts.   Permalink 3:18 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb You can tell real scientists from CV-builders: the real thing tell you what they are *trying* to figure out, not what they *did* in career. Permalink 3:17 AM – 30 Apr 2016

@nntaleb It is remarkable how little it costs to buy Washington. As Monsanto realized, return >>> than R&D.   Permalink 4:20 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb No surprise. Remember the lowly standards of Bloomberg as they did not retract this   @GTCost Permalink 3:33 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I do not delete my tweets and do not fear you journos. They autodelete >90d. Kapish? Do your F*** homework, journo. @caitlindewey Permalink 3:19 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR. Orthodox lent allows squid/squid ink! It is vegan, but allows squid ink! Discovered on last day!   Permalink 2:32 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 For discussion… It is a very casual observation. First, is it true for all Lebanon or just Koura?   Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Mystery? In N. Lebanon, shrines for St George in Greek-Orthodox areas, for Mary in Maronite ones Permalink 12:41 PM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Since twitter accounts of Syrian rebels is run by a Saudi-funded PR firm in DC, what can we expect from Wstrn media?   Permalink 10:03 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Try to remember when reading anything written by a journalist (especially a science journalist) that he is *by definition* an impostor. Permalink 8:34 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb I thank @BeirutMadinati for bringing a hope of governance & call on the Lebanese diaspora to help them. #BeirutMadinati Permalink 8:18 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Because we buy oil from Saudi Barbaria, what they do in Yemen is OK. Russia is “autoritarian”. Hypocrites. @robggill @zerohedge Permalink 7:45 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb ZeroHedge: last bastion outside the stamp of the bureaucratestablishment. Bloomberg (again) failed a hacket job.   Permalink 7:25 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb He is right: Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison represents everything that’s fake in governance-free bureaucratistan.   Permalink 7:02 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb The reason commerce flourished in the Levant was thanks to Francis I’s deal with the Sultan (“echelles du Levant”) @peterfrankopan Permalink 12:39 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Encountered @peterfrankopan’s relative (ancstr?), emissary on the silk road, in the 1526 Franco-Ottoman Alliance.   Permalink 12:34 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A7san shi tele3 min jdid 3enna bi Lebnen w bled el Shem #BeirutMadinati sawwtulon! 3enna amal 3a musta2balna. Sawwto la #BeirutMadinati Permalink 12:05 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Yes see Taleb and Ruffie, 1965: Etudes hemotypiques des ethnies Libanaises @faizkatt @raytheonunited Permalink 12:04 AM – 29 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Where we show that the reciprocal of some fat tailed is…Gaussian! Permalink 4:09 PM – 28 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Admonish your friends in private; paise them in public. Distrust anyone who does the reverse. (Secrete amicos admone; lauda palam.) Permalink 4:16 AM – 28 Apr 2016

@jdoleiv @nntaleb twitter allows me to follow skin in the game participants rather than just sideline journos. Game changer. Permalink 2:46 AM – 28 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Correction (3d version) L’3am yitjahalak mush 3am yensak Permalink 1:11 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Correction: L’3am yitjahalak mush 3am yijhalak Permalink 12:32 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb L’3am yijhalak mush 3am yijhalak [Translation is open to improvement] Permalink 12:27 AM – 27 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Latkazzeb 3al kizzeb Yfakkerak bitsad2o. لتكزب علكزاب يفاكراك بتسدقوا Permalink 11:49 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb My policy is to block anyone who mentions “proof” and “aphorism” in the same breath. Makes life cleaaaaaaaaaaarer!   Permalink 11:27 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بتعور الطايش بمعرفتوا [Attempts to translate into Levantine] Permalink 11:13 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb يلي بعرقلك شوي بأخرك كتير Permalink 11:06 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb اول شي نقبل انوا ١) الشامي(المشرقي) لغه مش “لهجة” ٢) اللغة الشامية اعتق من العربي! (ولو فيا ٣٠ \١٠٠ كلمات عربي) ٣) اللغة بتبلش بالأدب Permalink 10:45 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb بقبل الحرف السامي للشامي (هوي اسرع للكتابة) بس لل إنترنت بددك تستعمل اللاتيني حتا مايكتبو بل انكليزي @AssalehAmer @adnanhobalah @ZJourei Permalink 10:39 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Kill shi bi3ar2l shwayy bi2a55er ktiyr @AssalehAmer @adnanhobalah @crackmandem @ZJoureir Permalink 10:04 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Iza baddak ahl el balad yektbo bil-legha 3a facebook w social media sahhillun yeha. @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Iza me7tar 3a kitebet elshami bil7arf el-latine shouf el inklise “dough” “rough” w kelmet heik. @ZJoureir @adnanhobalah Permalink 1:28 PM – 26 Apr 2016

@nntaleb For potential slayers of evil dragons such as Monsanto Ralph Nader’s citizen advocacy group mega-event May 23-26   Permalink 5:11 AM – 26 Apr 2016

@linaadali John the Grammarian as the Byzantine ambassador to the Abbasids before caliph al-Ma’mūn (left) & emperor Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Said values include the firm belief that Shiites & *others* are deviant.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Debunking some nonsense in the measurement of inequality. Final results. Permalink 11:50 PM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb Palm Sunday in Damascus 7 km from ISIS   Permalink 8:50 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb A Graeco- Roman temple 2 miles outside Amioun. No pagan worshippers this morning except for yours Permalink 2:52 AM – 24 Apr 2016

@nntaleb From experience, never trust the UK press.   Permalink 1:37 AM – 24 Apr 2016

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