Monthly Archives: January 2017

Left, Received Ideas, Minority Rule, Naive Interventionism, Flamboyance

@nntaleb Statistically, the terrorists who killed the largest number of Americans were from Saudi Barbaria. Just a reminder. Permalink 12:41 PM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Who’s coming to my Cambridge tawk? We can sample potential topic. Permalink 3:32 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Genes and languages don’t line up necessarily! See Turkey, Cyprus, USA, Mexico, Egypt, etc. @Lekapenos @kingdomofvan @ghchammas @PZalloua Permalink 12:43 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Friday, my talk on Fat Tails at Darwin College in Cambridge, UK. Should I change topic & talk abt ancient Med?   Permalink 12:10 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb There are as many definitions of “Fat Tails” as… We settled on “true fat tails” (Paretan, hard) & nonParetan (soft) fat tails. @DrCirillo Permalink 12:02 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Much of the population seem to come from the North, the “Aryan” Asia Minor, aside from the sea. @ghchammas @PZalloua Permalink 11:28 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 4) Unlike genetic theories, low-dimensional genetic analyses focusing on Haplogroups for populations very robust statistically. Permalink 11:24 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Linguistic categorizations post Greenberg fail miserably with Semitic languages, owing to cross terms/mutations Permalink 11:24 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) So theory by Salibi is bogus. Myth 2: Contra SciAm (not “scientific”), little Arab origin/blood in Western Levant ~ elsewhere in Med. Permalink 11:23 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) With geneticist @PZalloua, busting a few myths about the Levant. Myth 1: Population of Levant is “Semitic”.PreIslamic population European Permalink 11:19 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Wine in Akkadian @Extrachelle Permalink 12:40 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The word wine comes from Phenician Yayn (Oinos), from Akkadian Inu. But also 7mer (see Ugaritic). @Extrachelle Permalink 12:38 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Basically, resist equating injustice and some static IYI measure of inequality.   Permalink 7:46 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If you’re over 30 and *need* to ever show or use a measure of your IQ, then tautologically it is the wrong measure. Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I meant Charlie Munger Permalink 3:58 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A real IQ test is one (Reverse engineered): An old Greek peasant would pass, Hume, Voltaire wd pass, D Munger wd pass, & P Krugman wd fail Permalink 2:46 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb NEVER MISREPRESENT AN ENEMY’S POSITION Redeading Hammurabi’s c:false accusations are as punishable as the crime   Permalink 9:07 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Interventionism is such a lunacy (opaque effects) that you end up harming yourself, w/alliances w/future enemies…   Permalink 8:20 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb So IYIs are accusing Trump to be fascist while asserting at the same time that Obama is a better il Duce, better at gathering crowds? Permalink 6:39 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is this picture real? If so, why the contract with CNN?   Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot an arbitrage is an arbitrage not a methodology. Violating an arbitrage loses $$. @DGkiranpai Permalink 1:26 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Completed the “How to Predict an Election” thanks to jet lag. For comments. Permalink 12:59 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2/Pretty much any news operation who performed asychronous comparisons needs to be disqualified as evidence of propaganda Permalink 11:54 PM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Can someone confirm that the pictures of Trump’s and Obama’s inaugurations in comparative panels in MSM were taken at different times? Thx! Permalink 11:43 PM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually ba3den maps to Hebrew/Aramaic Permalink 8:06 AM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today: many Levantine words that don’t map to Aramaic/Hebrew have a Phoenician orgin. Ba3d, Ba3den Permalink 2:16 AM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Some people select mystical numbers for good luck. 786 is 4-16 times more likely to be Muslim, pop adjusted. Kapish? @RakeshNarula2 Permalink 5:04 PM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They study economics or psych/social science & end up finding them real because the BS is effortful to learn.   Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today: In India you can tell someone’s religion at his phone number or car license plate. Muslim: contains 786. Permalink 3:04 AM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Dictionary of Received Ideas, New Version Permalink 10:46 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is ironically simple but wrong.   Permalink 8:44 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Nobody had “lived under a Trump” 3 h ago outside of his imagination. @CutTheKnotMath @Kasparov63 Permalink 1:12 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am trying to imagine Fat Tony’s reaction in front of a *vegetarian* burger joint. Permalink 12:46 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb New definition of “left” Permalink 3:38 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The new Dictionary of Received Ideas Permalink 3:02 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Where I am discovering is that the *only* thing I have in common with writers is that I write books.   Permalink 1:57 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Friends needs ome help: what’s the origin of बस (bas = no more) in Hindi? Permalink 11:25 PM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Semitic philology du jour: “ma” used as negation in Hebrew & Akkadian. possible origin “mimma” @lameensouag Permalink 11:08 PM – 19 Jan 2017

@PenguinIndia The minority rule explained- it’s easier for the majority to adapt to the minorities demands. @nntaleb #PenguinAtJLF Permalink 1:47 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Where the term “pseudo-left” will be made precise.   Permalink 12:49 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@PZalloua @nntaleb @Lekapenos @Michael99908062 Split since 10kya based on Y chromosome Permalink 12:12 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I would check w Pierre Zalloua @PZalloua who found a different genetic imprint for narrow coastal band on Med @Lekapenos @Michael99908062 Permalink 11:45 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My book Skin in the Game, in process (a few chapters) The more I procrastinate, the deeper the book gets!   Permalink 3:19 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Naive interventionism led to financing terrorists like Binladen, which is as wrong morally as foolish operationally.   Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Male peacock in Jaipur. You don’t win elections by being dull, but by flamboyance & natural signaling. @ZEEJLF Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We will settle on a terminology (whether FatTails incl Heavy Tails or vice versa) @DrCirillo Permalink 7:10 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb To imbeciles who think my Davosphobia comes from “not being invited”:I was invited,once, & I made sure they regretted it. @VeryBritishDude Permalink 7:05 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb When you see “economists say”, read as “those same economists, once again, say” …   Permalink 1:10 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Menu @kringelikrok Permalink 12:02 PM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb When people are Lebanese-Armenian they say Lebanese here. When they are Aleppo- Armenian they say Lebanese-Armenian. Permalink 11:56 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Aleppo-Armenian food in Beirut. A long experience since Tigran. Permalink 11:33 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Pple give to charities &feel virtuous by just giving.No #SkinIntheGame IYI workers feel virtuous while misspending Those in need are screwed Permalink 7:25 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@robertwjordway One of the many reasons @nntaleb is my fav. Just moved to DC where few have #SkinInTheGame. Pols should start with #Antifragile Permalink 4:57 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Lord Shemesh this morning shining on Mount Lebanon across from writing desk pressuring me to finish #SkinintheGame Permalink 12:59 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My ancestors used Greek not Aramaic. That’s the main cultural tension with Maronites and Syriac Orthodox tribes. @herbert_delmont Permalink 10:59 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@GuruAnaerobic The BBC is no longer interested.   Permalink 10:34 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Paradoxically, the place people travelled safely was on Silk Road thanks to clearing by Genghis et al. See @peterfrankopan @brenwickham Permalink 12:58 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Roman citizenship was before edict of Caracalla~204, limited to former city states. Closed sys @MattheWrite @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb In Ancient Med, bulk of migrations was from 1) slavery, 2) invading armies @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:47 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) Romans had incredibly difficult laws for resident barbarians (nonCitizens) in Empire @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:45 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is not, not, not true. It was hard to settle in Athens as a foreigner, except for Sidonians. Metics. @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:43 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No advanced countries are diglossic into a dead language. An Engl/Fr./Sp./It. letter sounds like speech. @alifakharany @thealikhanafer Permalink 11:44 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@thealikhanafer Arabs don’t read; those who read are diglossic & don’t do so in Arabic. I sold 100K in Italian! Permalink 11:40 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb People feel that Arabic is an invador’s language. Green-Roman alphabet used for 1000-1200 years before Arabic. #LindyEffect @LaurenceJarvik Permalink 11:04 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb At the first pizza/pasta restaurant in my ancestral village Amioun. Not an Arabic letter on the menu.Extinction of Ar Permalink 10:41 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I disagree w/”MAY be based on shaky science”. It IS shaky science. Lindy & p-values   Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Ok, he got my weak point.   Permalink 5:07 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony: “No one ever went bankrupt trading against intellectuals”. Permalink 5:04 AM – 15 Jan 2017

An Expert Called Lindy | Medium

An Expert Called Lindy

Lindy is a deli in New York, now a tourist trap, that proudly claims to be famous for its cheesecake, but in fact has been known for the fifty or so years of interpretation by physicists and mathematicians of the heuristic that developed there. Actors who hung out there gossiping about other actors discovered that Broadway shows that lasted, say one hundred days, had a future life expectancy of a hundred more. For those that lasted two hundred days, two hundred more. The heuristic became known as the Lindy Effect.