Tag Archives: Twitter

Russians, Old Arbat, Academics, Twitter, Sunstein, Friedman, The “LEFT”, Taxes, “irrationality”, Intolerance – Twitter

@nntaleb It is very dangerous for intelligent people to be paranoid. In The Black Swan, 11 years ago pic.twitter.com/De5Di711my Permalink 5:48 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The Russian pathological fixation is such that in the mind of those afflicted EVERYTHING has to have some Russian angle.https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/936035649278406658   Permalink 5:39 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Now when it comes to history, this is the real ting.https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/934752184109027328   Permalink 4:40 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As proof that the Arabic alphabet not adapted to Lebanese, in Garshuni ܐܶ vs in Arabic ايه which is NEVER the correct sound. The Latin Alphabet remains close to the Phoenician alphabet & much more adapted to our sounds. Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@jackrim1 Possibly one of the best book cover quotes ever @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/YaxDIW1sNA Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb GQ is the philosopher John Gray. Permalink 3:20 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanks friends, instead of having endorsements from hotshots we opted for “Joe from Chicago” style blurbs –real not fake readers. pic.twitter.com/XL5OjIK0sm Permalink 3:17 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The code. Argument that 13 has highest probability to follow. pic.twitter.com/M0nYfUmZzC Permalink 12:03 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The water in Moscow makes you more formal with probability. Solving a @CutTheKnotMath problem https://www.dropbox.com/s/yeursepeln1v8kw/GordianNov29Probability.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zf1AcNFU2W”>  pic.twitter.com/zf1AcNFU2W Permalink 12:00 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@Learn_lebanese The Lebanese É does not exist in Arabic. šÉyef fÉyet LebnÉn #LebaneseVsArabic Permalink 6:19 AM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #2: if you are tipsy, there is some elegance you need to maintain. Permalink 1:48 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #1: to get drunk with Russians, train to the following: no shame in being tipsy. It takes some training. Permalink 1:42 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@mdpopescu This. It drives me nuts (one might say it triggers me ) to see scientists take credit for engineers’ work. Scientists tell you that lasers cannot possibly work. Engineers make them work anyway. Scientists come back and claim another victory for science.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/935535056419946496   Permalink 10:10 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the discussion in Antifragile about “academic” discoveries that were in fact made by practitioners. pic.twitter.com/xiLZdPOkzi Permalink 7:45 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Errata: Meant 1 in 100,000. Also note that the net contribution of economics/finance is negative. Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb I need some help. I am in Old Arbat trying to buy trinkets and need a more reliable souvenir shop. Permalink 5:37 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Which explains why, in Georgian restaurants in Moscow, I am greeted like a local cousin until I open my mouth. pic.twitter.com/jqhDlVk12j Permalink 5:31 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The odds of an academic “researcher” producing anything eventually used by society is of the order of .00001%. That includes scientists. The odds for a baker: 100% Permalink 5:08 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People collectively chosen for their misunderstanding of tail risk, both before and after the crisis.https://twitter.com/BarbarianCap/status/935301358227517440   Permalink 2:57 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We face 3 predators: The State, Near-State Institutions (e.g. academia, media) & Large Corporations. Large corps end up destroying themselves (life expec. <10 y in SP500). Others stick and grow.https://twitter.com/RalphNader/status/935189825229152256   Permalink 2:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem with Lebanon is rent-seeking (and the inequality coming from it), not inequality per se. Permalink 2:04 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words Krugman falls for the mistake: “For academics there is no difference between academia and the real world. In the real world there is”. pic.twitter.com/BYujVSb0Nu Permalink 12:48 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Inded ideas don’t have skin in the game if the people holding them don’t.https://twitter.com/AustinEinhorn/status/935299974589382657   Permalink 12:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@maciejolpinski why a 17 year old altcoin trader might be more ‘rational’ than any Twitter crypto-theorist (including myself), opinion without option < option without opinion pic.twitter.com/QZ35RKH4QR Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sloppiness alert: rising “life expectancy” has no effect on social security. It is driven by childhood mortality. You care about conditional life expectancy >65 (or 68). This is very common mistake.https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warning-social-security-faces-a-23-cut-2017-11-27?link=sfmw_tw   Permalink 2:24 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that neither medicine nor engineering are academia-driven pursuits, rather practice and apprenticeship-based. Permalink 2:14 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum 2 Antikhrupkost Permalink 1:03 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Footnote: Lektchuring Birds How to Fly in Antifragile discusses the myth that science -> technology, rather than reverse. Permalink 12:48 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@The_Cyrenian But by all means, send hundreds of millions more to terrorists to keep killing Syrian Christians like me and burning our churches to the ground… pic.twitter.com/mR8b8GaJrh Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Academics, when they leave academia become at best back-office support staff, not decision-makers. Not like the grocery store owner who owns his own risk. Permalink 10:23 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: Москва Permalink 9:59 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb If majority of academics vote Democrat, it is not random: they 1) don’t have skin in the game, (others take risks for them) 2) are not productive members of society but want to lecture others on what to do 3) have steady income etc.https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/934863186494459904   Permalink 9:52 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mockba Many many Russians interested in Antikhtupkim and disorder… Was told there is no Russian recipe for squid ink. pic.twitter.com/gfIIYLjvO4 Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The NYT generalizing: because its friends have problems, ALL men are a problem. Shoddy. Same defensive generalization when I accuse someone w/o skin in the game of being a BS vendor/pseudoexpert: Taleb calls “everybody” a BS vendor/pseudoexpert. Permalink 1:02 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words, such a reasoning would lead to preemptively arrest all vegetarians w/mustache. Permalink 12:19 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The logical fallacy of affirming the consequent. If ALL wars are preceded by tensions, NOT ALL tensions lead to war (empirically, most tensions lead to agreements/parties). If ALL members of the Smith family all tall, NOT ALL tall pple from Smith family.https://twitter.com/TheViewFromLL2/status/934596850895777792   Permalink 12:08 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@TMFStoffel When I read things like this — supporting @nntaleb’s theory of the body’s antifragility and the eventual harm of interventionism — it makes me wonder about ever icing a pulled muscle, taking ibuprofen, etc again https://www.thedailybeast.com/let-it-burn-why-you-should-let-fevers-run-their-course   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ua8SKljKvm”>  pic.twitter.com/ua8SKljKvm Permalink 8:55 PM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb A speculation in Antifragile.https://twitter.com/yzilber/status/934841513787326464   Permalink 10:00 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@romepix A moment in #Naples #Italy pic.twitter.com/9ynFP1a5zn Permalink 5:40 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Finally getting rid of IYIs and Empty Suits.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/934446997288964097   Permalink 4:21 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Twitter getting a taste of its medicine.https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/934504253661630465   Permalink 12:38 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ergodic measures of inequality give a v. different story. Cc: @ole_b_peters Permalink 12:34 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is class-envy driven BS both statistically & philosophically. Unfortunately it is infecting Lebanon.https://twitter.com/karimbitar/status/934660336761888769   Permalink 12:32 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Presence in South England: You can see how an Anatolian/Syrian gene went NorthWest with Roman soldiers (the “diversity” of that ignorant Mary Beard). Permalink 2:12 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 20 years ago…https://twitter.com/murkycwaters/status/934512451617542144   Permalink 1:05 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Attention conspiracists: I am on my way to Moscow. Just letting you know, speculate & theorize. (Last trip was cut short for personal reasons.) Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning.https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/934159382874640386   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning. https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/934159382874640386   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The point is not so much plagiarism as the fact that readers get offended seeing ethical breaches. Permalink 6:56 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Plagiarism alert: by one Luca de Sandro in @StartingFinance. Luckily, readers shout fraud when they see fraud. pic.twitter.com/6s9AG4Kj2y Permalink 6:40 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Statists who want to impose topdown solutions on pple agst their will have the NERVE to talk abt “authoritarianism”. “Nudger” @CassSunstein, clueless abt risk/probability, tried to manipulate citizens under Obama, (s.a. prevent them from knowing they were consuming GMOs). pic.twitter.com/KDKGnu0Xr7 Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The bankruptcy of the NYT? of Monsanto? The collapse of Saudi Barbaria? pic.twitter.com/UYU4uuWV7j Permalink 5:01 PM – 24 Nov 2017

@GabrielSaidR I agree but religion did matter here – it was a Sufi mosque. https://twitter.com/quixoticnada/status/934108668919992320   Permalink 11:50 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@anhistorian In honor of Thomas Friedman’s latest love letter to Saudi here is 70 years of the NY Times describing #Saudi royals in the language of #reform. Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arabic root same as other Semitic ones. pic.twitter.com/juriVuOw6c Permalink 7:20 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the reasoning defect by which Arabist idiots and Western IYIs deem that if word in Levantine has similar Arabic root, it comes FROM Arabic. On Wikipedia Levantine is called “Levantine Arabic” when Arabic came LATER. Permalink 7:14 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: I meant גבר in Heb not גָדוֹל. GVR root. Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algebra is NOT necessarily from Arabic. That’s the problem w/ignorant historians of science. 2 roots: AKKADIAN (Babylon): gabaru =>compute(equivalence betw. solar & lunar._ CANNANITE & ARAMAIC: GBR is to “make bigger” (גָדוֹל in Heb = powerful), gabra= man/strong in Aram.https://twitter.com/Acts17/status/933787306766585858   Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The J2b1 concentration, while hard to reverse-engineer w/the (elementary) probability used by geneticists, is relatively easy to do via Brownian Bridge. pic.twitter.com/3dBUtWofvo Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb New book uses Thomas Friedman @tomfriedman as representative of the criminally stupid no-skin in the game BS vendor/pearshape warmonger who destroys societies. pic.twitter.com/oxXI6a9xfK Permalink 5:08 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Final, with thanks. pic.twitter.com/6LPagRXYUw Permalink 3:47 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My attempt at solution. pic.twitter.com/YqNFE3kdEh Permalink 2:37 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Dear @ehsani22, relax, NYT’s @tomfriedman is the perfect negative indicator; NEVER been right on anything: Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Leb, Trump, globalization, complexity. Means MBS and Saudi Barbaria are doomed.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/933855871653867520   Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@mns Crucial point. Overuse of words we have to describe atrocities not only diminishes victims of those past atrocities, but it blunts the main weapon (language) we have to prevent future atrocitieshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/933305380544962561   Permalink 3:36 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) Monoculturist. Permalink 9:58 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that I put “LEFT” in quotes. A lot of people on the left w/discernment abilities or civil libertarians, pacifists, nonstatists, localists, communitarians, etc. do not identify w/such a category. Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanksgiving Quiz, continuation of @CutTheKnotMath’s random interval problem. https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/933024468527611904   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ShgW12b8XQ”>  pic.twitter.com/ShgW12b8XQ Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The “LEFT”: Repressive. Anti-localist, anti-decentralization. Anti freedom of speech. Warmongering, militarist. Interventionist. Manipulation of pple w/nudges. Elitist/IYI. Anti self-determination of minorities worldwide. Race obsessed. Pro-Salafascists. Anti #SkinintheGame Permalink 6:08 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Decisions are not about epistemic beliefs, but operational ones. Religion is often very rational…https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 12:16 PM – 22 Nov 2017

@AStratelates Nope. As @nntaleb points out, EVEN IF THE SUPERNATURAL DOESN’T EXIST and prayer doesn’t work, it fulfills our intervention tendency without harm. You’re just a bigoted asshole if you’re denigrating people praying.https://twitter.com/ArtturiArtturi/status/933254493373788160   Permalink 9:58 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@DonTravlos As the son of one of the victims of hitler glad someone with the authority of a Taleb finally said it Permalink 9:47 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@garyruskin “The best virtue requires courage,” writes @nntaleb http://bit.ly/2zr7yq7   “If I were to describe the perfect virtuous acts, it would be to take currently frowned upon positions, those penalized by the common discourse (particularly when funded by lobbyists).” ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yW0viTtm4a”>  pic.twitter.com/yW0viTtm4a Permalink 6:42 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Blabbering Pseudolib Idiots Took Over Academia: The idea of comparing someone to Hitler: 1) who doesn’t actively conduct genocide, 2) invade neighbors, 3) muzzles speech , 4) etc. is an insult to the true victims of Hitler.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/933068639867084800   Permalink 4:05 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@CaesarIpse An inmersive week in philosophy, finance, markets and risk taking from bright practitioners who know their “ting” and awesome peers!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/932985129202520064   Permalink 12:20 PM – 21 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A problem of random intervals https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RandomIntervals.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Nq0X7BVNbp”>  pic.twitter.com/Nq0X7BVNbp Permalink 9:29 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 12) The Scandinavians (and the Swiss) get it that taxation requires a level of TRUST found in municipalities, possibly regions, never large anonymous states. (Scalability & Skin in the Game)https://twitter.com/liberbabian/status/933006238434058240   Permalink 8:57 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We managed with RWRI a technical education that has no BS no pol correctness &no admin fat. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10155395509003375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4U4LdCwlmn”>  pic.twitter.com/4U4LdCwlmn Permalink 6:52 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 11) As tribes grow, I can understand paying protection money to warriors: Pax Romana/Ottomana/Habsburgianana even Americana to preserve PROPERTY RIGHTS. Historical rate ~2-10%. It is much harder to understand coercive redistribution & subsidies to rent seeking bureaucrats. Permalink 6:28 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 10) SCALING. A- Imagine you’re a hunter. You give a share (say ⅓) to a pool for invalid members of tribe; for social norms & #SITG symmetry. B- Community grows, someone FORCES you to give ⅓ to an administration managed far away, some of it pays salary of P. Krugman. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb You mean this Falkenstein? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   Permalink 4:41 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mr @_tomazy 1) #Jews went down in Bagdad & Cairo by 100% and 99.99% (not an approximation). If that’s not evidence, I don’t what is. 2) The explicit mission by Qatar/KSA is a Sunni replacement to Alawis. Thank you. Permalink 1:13 PM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 9) CLASS ENVY isn’t from truck driver in South Texas, but from a NY/DC Ivy League educated IYI (Krugman, Stiglitz) w/sense of entitlement upset some “less smart” pple are much richer.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 11:49 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb That’s the problem with Big Government, not one with taxation. Gabish? Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 8) When you disguize CLASS ENVY as an intellectual argument (as Piketty, Krugman, IYIs), it always, always shows. Permalink 7:58 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 7) So we accept tht taxes are collective coersion; we can make it rational by allowing groups to form their own communities w/their own collective rules, as in CHF. This is why the ONLY political orientation I have is LOCALISM. Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 6) I only reply to comments that are wrong, not those that are sufficiently stupid to be “not even wrong”. Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 5) In that sense taxation can be seen as a Punishment ( جزية) on the wealthy for them to be allowed to stay wealthy. Which is OK, but don’t be fooled. Permalink 6:36 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 4) Islamic law gives insights: taxes are separated as 1) Charity ( زكاة, alms) vs. 2) Punishment ( جزية) (on Dhimmis (like me) to be allowed to stay Christian+ خراج). Charity (~2-3%) goes to the poor, Punishment to state coffers/military. Charity implies *thanking* benefactor. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Accept disproportionate taxation, but be no fool: it is the coercive result of 1man-1vote just as in past it was military force. in LCD, it is patronage. In past, taxation was disguized as “Protection” & small, w/~5-15%. Then became “services”. Now “fairness”. Permalink 6:09 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The reason we have “progressive” taxation is the 1 person-1 vote, with the spin that zero-sum, which applies only to IYI jobs.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 5:24 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fake narrative to justify expropriation: 1% of taxpayers pay ~ half of taxes for SAME services. You want them to pay 110%? 200%?https://twitter.com/B_Ehrenreich/status/931934347699073027   Permalink 4:57 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@bthies_watashi Legibility, explained. https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/07/26/a-big-little-idea-called-legibility/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/C38sFtQIPe”>  pic.twitter.com/C38sFtQIPe Permalink 4:23 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arab League = Sunni League. States that will be outside of it will prosper. Like Malta. Permalink 3:28 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 1st step, Arab states delegitimized their Jews (1940s) 2nd, they deligitimized Copts (1950s) 3rd, they deligitimized Maronites (1970s) 4th, they deligitimized Alawis (2011) Final step, they deligitimized Shiites (2017) Which means good luck to the Sunni League. .https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/932384538239660034   Permalink 3:19 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Exactly my argument “surgeons should not look like surgeons”!!!https://twitter.com/DamnPatriot/status/932351341531451392   Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Problem 4186 from the Crux Mathematicorum Mathematicorum https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Calculus/Crux4186.shtml   #FigureThat #math #calculus #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/u76CAdUgyH”>  pic.twitter.com/u76CAdUgyH Permalink 9:15 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Another chapter shows that individual “irrationality” is necessary for collective behavior. Also almost all of Thaler’s work misuses probability distributions.https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 8:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nudging is a mechanism that lead you to act according to Thaler and Sunstein both very ignorant of probability, & increases risk in society.https://twitter.com/timurkuran/status/932285532847124480   Permalink 8:39 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Added this to the final draft: the problem with universalists. pic.twitter.com/tdRAnB829K Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Many pseudolibs & other idiots who replied to the Persian Muslim wife point don’t get it that the ONLY evidence of nonracism is one’s private life.https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 6:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@BadgerPundit For 99% of us, better to block, not mute. Here’s the classic argument for that: https://www.gadgette.com/2016/05/20/why-its-better-to-mute-your-twitter-trolls-than-block-them  . But Taleb’s in a different situation, as many read his thread, and he needs to block people who ruin them for everyone. A tragedy-of-the-commons problem. Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb NITPICKING: Commenting/debating a point of no relevance to the substance of the argument; whether right or wrong, no effect, while distracting pple. Gabish? Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is a prime example of nitpicking coupled with distortion of my initial statement.https://twitter.com/LouaiWafa/status/932231680240136193   Permalink 5:42 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Should I block this responder?https://twitter.com/PwoodsNY/status/932239710788911104   Permalink 5:33 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sunday Heuristic: Block nitpickers before trolls as they damage the discourse much more effectively by diverting it (pple engage nitpickers more than trolls). Permalink 4:53 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb They don’t mention that Wahabis in Saudi Barbaria currently ban dogs as impure animals.http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/11/these-may-be-world-s-first-images-dogs-and-they-re-wearing-leashes   Permalink 4:28 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Why is it that pple, in 2017, still don’t get the properties of Fat Tails? Is it a reasoning defect or because it is so hard? @DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/ramez/status/916803279362834437   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) And ha! Zaraqu means both BLUE and GREEN! pic.twitter.com/cxTuXtdgUa Permalink 4:44 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) In Aramaic, both Green and Yellow <= ירוק pic.twitter.com/QdPw809iFU Permalink 4:34 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tarjamt Taḱt Prokrustes xal kinxané-jdid (Modern Canaanite). pic.twitter.com/2wl4yhstXF Permalink 12:37 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tit for tat game theoretic Popper’s Paradox: the minute you cease to tolerate, I become intolerant.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/931914784035008513   Permalink 8:37 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Saturday. Recall frm Antifragile that Greeks (and Heb) had no word for color blue. Closest old semitic word for Green is…Erz (->Cedar) or 7ashab (->wood) or ירוק ورق ->paper Permalink 7:31 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@shrykescythe Mike was never even the biggest voice or totally convinced on Pizzagate, yet media decided to do everything to stick the label on him. Brainwashed sheep just parrot “Pizzagate guy” without ever studying the facts. Permalink 6:57 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb When I have drinks w/someone on the left (I do weekly), nobody on the right bothers me. When I have drinks w/someone on the right, the “left” goes wild. (f*** them). #PopperParadox: never, never tolerate intolerance. Permalink 5:45 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In Brazil, I thought kidnappers settled for 10-20% of the NW of the victim. Saudi Arabia: 70%. Corruption Schmoruption: none shd ever invest in Aramco, stock in a country that expropriates to balance budget. #ضد_آل_سعود Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@mikeandallie Finding e by throwing darts: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/11/18/finding-e-by-throwing-darts/   #math #mathchat inspired by @nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath @giohio and @JohnAllenPaulos Permalink 5:17 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Green Brexit push set to continue despite amendments defeat > Yes: we fight on to save the @PrecPrinciple! [Pse RT!]https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/3021199/green-brexit-push-continues-despite-amendments-defeat   Permalink 4:42 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb How do I know that @Cernovich is not racist? #SkinintheGame: He has a Persian Muslim wife (& a half Persian daughter). Ignore talk (by pple & abt pple), observe what people do. Permalink 3:40 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@hichambh Looks like chef Sébastien Bras has read the work of @nntaleb Acclaimed French chef asks to be stripped of three Michelin starshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/20/sebastien-bras-french-chef-three-michelin-stars-le-suquet-laguiole?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lecture on Cybercrime at RWRI 6: Our policy now is to hire instructors from 1) past attendees 2) people who practice exactly what they talk about. No academic should teach anything nonacademic. pic.twitter.com/A81t3glD7E Permalink 6:40 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Mike C @Cernovich pic.twitter.com/ye98U8cCxf Permalink 5:49 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Voila https://www.dropbox.com/s/5n9qosuiqso97cz/GordianNov17.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Ij0TsjQTaI”>  pic.twitter.com/Ij0TsjQTaI Permalink 5:16 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Just a reminder that, as a philosopher @mpigliucci has a problem with Truth.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 4:19 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@mackthefresh Last day of Real World Risk with @nntaleb. It’s been great! Still waiting for the deadlift demonstration though. pic.twitter.com/a3hVo2Y17K Permalink 8:23 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An inequality in 2+2 variables from SSMA magazine https://www.cut-the-knot.org/arithmetic/algebra/SSMA5454.shtml   #FigureThat #math#algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qwC7TpSWnG”>  pic.twitter.com/qwC7TpSWnG Permalink 8:03 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thought of the day: never trust the thought & science of anyone who is not free. Being free means no honors, no position, nothing other than one’s own thought. pic.twitter.com/nUZo5gbB3V Permalink 5:30 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Some people get that universalism & globalism lead to monoculture.https://twitter.com/startupdaemon/status/931241391468023808   Permalink 11:24 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My answer is here: SITG vs CONFLICT OF INTEREST pic.twitter.com/F0NeZ4VnUG Permalink 7:46 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@ProbFact Chaos and the beta distribution https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2017/09/27/quadratic-iteration-distribution/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aNeM4LBDcZ”>  pic.twitter.com/aNeM4LBDcZ Permalink 7:12 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@MaxAbrahms Since the start of the Cold War the strategy of U.S. Mideast proxies has been to sell themselves as strategic assets by constantly adjusting their professed utility depending on the latest geopolitical threat.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/931164578431475712   Permalink 6:22 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead The House of Commons has just voted against retaining the @PrecPrinciple into UK law. Good bye protection; hello recklessness and potential devastation of our posterity. A shameful failure of leadership. [Please RT.]https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/930926163735863296   Permalink 11:57 PM – 15 Nov 2017

Nassim Taleb Blasts Bitcoin Newsweek Article – Business Insider

In the wake of California resident Dorian Nakamoto’s denial that he invented Bitcoin, some have voiced concerns about his exposure to possibly undue media scrutiny.

Add Nassim Taleb to that list.

In a new series of Tweets, Taleb, the best-selling author of books about how he thinks markets and society work, goes after Newsweek reporter Leah McGrath Goodman, the author of the piece alleging Nakamoto invented the digital currency; and journalism in general, using his signature lexicon about probability and skin in the game.

via Nassim Taleb Blasts Bitcoin Newsweek Article – Business Insider.

Nassim Taleb Twitter – Business Insider

Author and philosophical finance whiz Nassim Taleb began 2014 with a bold challenge to his fellow economic thinkers.

“I would love to debate a prominent economist LIVE in front of an audience… Nobody has accepted so far,” he wrote on his Facebook page a few days ago.

So who is up for the challenge?

“I think any economist who debated Taleb would want to use this,” The Week’s John Aziz quipped on Twitter, pointing to this 2010 interview where Taleb argues shorting treasuries is a “no brainer” due to the U.S. deficit and the risk of inflation.

“So long as you see the picture of Larry Summers going to Davos, you have to stay short U.S. Treasuries for another year. It means they (the Obama administration) don’t know what’s going on,” Taleb told MoneyNews’ Dan Weil in 2010.

Taleb went off on Aziz and others, arguing that his actual profit and loss (“PL”) wasn’t indicative of his 2010 statement, which would have presumably lost money.

via Nassim Taleb Twitter – Business Insider.

nntaleb: Finished My Central Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317

nntaleb: Finished My Central Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317


Links to pdf download page for:

Convexity, Robustness, and Model Error
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

August, 31 2010
This discussion makes the distinction inside the Fourth Quadrant “Black Swan Domain” between fragile an robust to model (or representational) error on the basis of convexity.
• The notion of model error as a convex or concave stochastic variable.
• Why deficit forecasting errors are biased in one direction.
• Why large is fragile to errors.
• How economics as a discipline made the monstrously consequential mistake of treating estimated parameters as nonstochastic variables and why this leads to fat-tails even while using Gaussian models.
• The notion of epistemic uncertainty as embedded in model errors.
In addition, it introduces a simple practical heuristic to measure (as an indicator of fragility) the sensitivity of a portfolio (or balance sheet) to model error. Finally, it sets an explicit path to conduct policy based on robustness

Working Paper Series