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TECHNICAL INCERTO, Dawkins, Haass, Friedman, Zakaria, Alexander Bogomolny, GMOs, Ron Paul, Soccer | Twitter

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@financequant “I believe that we should read only those books that wound and stab us. If a book we are reading does not rouse us with a blow to the head, then why read it? A book must be the axe for the frozen sea inside us.”–Franz Kafka Permalink 2:43 PM – 20 Jul 2018

@NebojsaMalic You BOMBED Montenegro in 1999 as commander of NATO, you nitwit. https://twitter.com/GeneralClark/status/1019605472205295616   Permalink 10:43 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This time on ….phenomenology! The cartoonist is good but doesn’t get that weightlifters are NOT thin in the waist. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1020291741994430466   Permalink 6:57 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Since I am typesetting, we have aesthetic questions. Is the format I use for my own books OK? Or fixing the Maestro’s own original fonts? https://www.dropbox.com/s/hslpj8xcqtszmvv/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%202.pdf?dl=0   Please let me know. Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) (Ppple involved: @MarcosCarreira @gcfr20 @mikeandallie @octonion @SvetlanaBogom13 ) My feeling is: we do not need to complete many tutorial appendices since these are standard: pple find them on the web just as they did to solve pblms. (for instance I don’t use one for mine) Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) BOGOMOLNY FRIDAY SYMPOSIUM Alex left us 13 days ago. I have the PDF of the @CutTheKnotMath’s book Probability Riddles; working on completing it posthumously. Need comments on these sections (pics). https://www.dropbox.com/s/wcme0ib93t4bozn/Probability_Riddles.pdf?dl=0   @republicofmath @ProbFact @octonion @erugli ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/S40ItFJMxi”>  pic.twitter.com/S40ItFJMxi Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yarmouk is where the Byzantines lost the battle to the Arabs 13C ago. The new Byzantium has some work to do. https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/1020142300180213760   Permalink 8:43 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He came to talk population genetics/probability. I took him to the gym instead and forced him to deadlift. He had never done it before. He is very confused about the visit. https://twitter.com/pzalloua/status/1020068134886232065   Permalink 3:51 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Never ever criticize anyone (say a politician) for doing something that you would be silent about if someone else did it. You would be insulting your audience, insulting truth, insulting the medium you are using, insulting ethics. Permalink 11:38 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved… https://twitter.com/roguishwisdom/status/1020001246248341504   Permalink 11:03 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yes the seeds of skin in the game in 2002: never read anything on doing by nondoers. https://twitter.com/mc_macro/status/1019973430601322498   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So the TECHNICAL INCERTO is online: VOL1- The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails https://www.dropbox.com/s/bq2lhmoo9v686ap/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%201.pdf?dl=0   VOL2- Convexity, Risk, and Fragility (in progress) https://www.dropbox.com/s/hslpj8xcqtszmvv/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%202.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ee2wQ07MVV”>  pic.twitter.com/ee2wQ07MVV Permalink 7:01 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Congrats to @BakhtadzeMamuka for becoming Prime Minister of Georgia, and indeed, let Georgia, the root of Europe and the Mediterranean (i.e. Western Eurasia), become part of modern-day Europe via cultural and economic integration. https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1019916527959707648   Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb My point is: That highly unrigorous science journalist @RichardDawkins can say “Listen I would like to preserve my culture” without insulting other people’s aesthetics. Permalink 5:35 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Note: This is not for my benefit but a public service warning –since I will never set foot there. (Nor was I financially hurt since I was the guest at a business dinner.) Permalink 7:08 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I spent my childhood in the Christian neighborhood in Beirut listening to both the bells (older churches than Dawkins’) and the muezzin in the distance. It taught me that tolerance is when you get that: The Other likes the aesthetics of his rituals as much as you do yours. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1018933359978909696   Permalink 6:54 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Is it against NYC law to refuse to serve tap water? (Some pple have a rule to never drink nonlocal water) Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Nusr-Et in NY. Never ever again. They don’t even serve local tap water. Overrrrrrrrrrpriced. pic.twitter.com/oBCmFEiQbV Permalink 4:21 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@JeanMessiha En Algérie, des femmes bravent l’obscurantisme avec la modernité du bikini ; en France, des femmes bravent la modernité avec l’obscurantisme du burkini… https://observalgerie.com/actualite-algerie/societe/ces-algeriennes-qui-simposent-en-bikini/   Permalink 11:51 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This is hilarious. Every time someone (of the type to live with their mother at age 52) tells me that “Trump is dumb”… https://twitter.com/Viatcheslavsos3/status/1019631566522322944   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@DaxThoughts Nothing makes me (1) feel worse about myself (2) want to learn a ton of information NOW, Than reading @nntaleb’s papers It’s an extremely humbling process. Permalink 4:18 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And they are still not getting why this “evidence” is pseudoscience. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/health/psychology-studies-stanford-prison.html   Permalink 4:12 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The thread explains why most of the papers with “empirical evidence” using “correlations” and “p-values” are BS. Actually, in some fields, almost all papers are BS but you need to look deep into the statistics. The p-value hacking paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1019229442609221632   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2018

@CeddChad Courtesans and Fishcakes opened my eyes to Med culture and how we Northerners are so different. Yours has been the only reference I have ever seen to it. Permalink 11:34 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Journos thrive on wars and tensions (like the press magnate in the Bond movie who fomented wars to sell papers) (Asymmetric payoff: they don’t bear the costs, particularly if harm is in foreign countries) Regular citizens don’t care about geopolitics. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 11:06 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And prosperity is best achieved by preventing bureaucrats from interfering with things they will never understand. Permalink 9:50 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that the job of the government is to deliver Peace and Prosperity. Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@marcus_minus Espèce de charlatan incompétent… je vous invite à lire @nntaleb avant de dire de tels conneries. Et dire que nous avons des cancres comme vs pour parler de transhumanisme, d’OGM et d’investissement d’avenir. #charlatan Permalink 7:00 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Based on the reactions, the definition of a “dictator with divergent values” is someone who does not buy weapons from U.S. based arms manufacturers. Permalink 8:06 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@daniel_bilar Pre-asymptotics & fat tails: Operational & heuristic metrics to compare n-summed independent vars under all distributions w finite first moment by @nntaleb http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   [“how much data one needs to make meaningful statements”, ‘speed’ of the law of large numbers] ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cZ3SroVpec”>  pic.twitter.com/cZ3SroVpec Permalink 5:39 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 This is getting ridiculous. What a day. Share values ? I didn’t see you complaining when he sword danced in #Saudi https://twitter.com/newshour/status/1018990464676970496   Permalink 3:59 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It took 5 volumes to get the main point: “The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty about what one should do about it.” pic.twitter.com/XodgKD7QrV Permalink 1:53 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One is allowed to reveal the low IQ of these pseudo-experts s.a. @RichardHaass, @tomfriedman or @FareedZakaria is because, while clueless abt complex interactions & basic properties, they feel empowered to lecture others on what to do. They shd driving Ubers not more. Permalink 12:01 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Actually excellent partying as preliminary preparation to the theorezing. pic.twitter.com/mdR0oQNFPC Permalink 11:49 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The main problem that plague GMO idiots is that they don’t get that 1) interractions in an environment are not predictable 2) that they NEED to be predicted (no organism is isolated) https://twitter.com/freud_fjell/status/1018919146044747776   Permalink 11:07 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Surprised? https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1018873225206525952   Permalink 10:23 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Promoting the ideas of Jane Jacobs (and her books) on organic urbanism —with Minister @HardeepSPuri in charge of building tens of millions of homes in the next 5 years. pic.twitter.com/gV6YwcvhHs Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb To have a real “deep state” you need the intelligence of a Professor Moriarty or the craftiness of a Colbert. Not a collection of hand-to-mouth bureaucrats. Gabish? Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One lesson from recent militarism: 1- There may exist ~a “deep state”, but it isn’t organized, rather a spontaneous league of useful idiots 2- The most representative is that *low-IQ BS Vendor*, @RichardHaass, so you can see it’s composed of real losers https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1018245342989516805   Permalink 6:16 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Like Saudi Arabia. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1018815528704593920   Permalink 5:00 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends; now the question is whether to use Roman or “Arabic” (Indian) numerals. pic.twitter.com/ncLcWlJYWi Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@Jaffer22915438 One last tweet before I do something more useful. Flashback to when right wingnuts called Reagan a “Useful Idiot” for meeting with Soviet Union…today, Democrats assuming posture: http://articles.latimes.com/1987-12-05/news/mn-6395_1_president-reagan   Permalink 4:19 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Needs to be random. Like IRS audits. https://twitter.com/stianchrister/status/1018585629230170113   Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Make sure your income does not depend on your reputation. 2) Find 4-5 perpetrators and hound them for the rest of their life. Particularly 4 years later when they expect it the least. 3) Let others see what you are doing to the few smearers. Example http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/Once_there_was_/status/1018547404931362817   Permalink 12:53 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In the past, the weapons industry would have right wing warmongers shill for them & perpetuate states of bellicosity. They got smarter. They now enlist shills who managed to label themselves on the “left”. Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) And no, @elonmusk/@Tesla are not fully antifragile: they depends on shareholders, which is the reason smear campaigns are active. They are directed at the shareholders. But they can show evidence of smear campaign (there is) using my Tesla/NonTesla test. Permalink 7:55 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The principle in Fooled by Randomness is that we react to 1st order; we are manipulated into seeing events separated from statistical context. For instance: my discipline every time I hear Trump did smthing cruel (e.g. children) to check if NonTrump did same. (Obama did). Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Thread: @ElonMusk, victim of a smear campaign. + @Tesla car catches fire. Nobody reports on >150K yearly nonTesla cars fires? + Musk took public $, not great (returned). How about OTHER companies that got pub. $$? + Musk “is a billionaire”. How abt other billionaires? https://twitter.com/web/status/1018503499091464192   Permalink 7:46 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb cc:@HardeepSPuri https://twitter.com/Jimmy_Rosen/status/1018495695815434241   Permalink 7:15 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 6) Diplomats and politicians with no SITG cause more trouble than they solve with things like Israel/Palestine and Syria. Taleb thinks that people with SITG care more about having good food, drink, and weather at their family parties than geopolitics or grand principles: no SITG Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 1) Recently finished @nntaleb’s Skin in the Game. Like others (@naval) who have had their worldviews shifted by Taleb’s writings on probability, randomness, and society in general, SITG changed how I think about numerous parts of the economy and society. Some takeaways: Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 14 problems coming from the misunderstanding of fat tails by professional statisticians/quants/economists etc. pic.twitter.com/rIFZf89r9i Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One of the last pictures of Maestro, birdwatching (courtesy: his niece). pic.twitter.com/3ym2Jm3QlH Permalink 6:18 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb SUMMARY OF THE BOOK A statistician: Of course we understand fat tails. The author: No you don’t. pic.twitter.com/YqbSvulpfd Permalink 2:42 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INTERDICTS A passage in The Black Swan about how grandmother elephants have authority… A senator is literally an aged person… pic.twitter.com/B7nnQDzK0M Permalink 10:34 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking pple who nitpick aphorisms as if they were literal scientific claims; some call them “gross generalization”; some even complain that there is no backup… Since I’ve been doing it, the quality of my feed/discussions improved considerably. #ViaNegativa https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1018178698242117639   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So for the nomenclatura, ageism is not bigotry (check w/intellectual fraudster @NickCohen4). Aside from selective bigoteering, they haven’t yet discovered that respect for the elder if shared by practically every civilization (Meds, Semites, Chinese,…) for #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/1017842202263916549   Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters This problem dedicated to the Memory of our friend Alexander Bogomolny. @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math pic.twitter.com/pFepfWfNDb Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb What identity activists & the Stalinist pol police are doing to us is making us see someone as “person from race/gender/orientation (X,Y,Z)” instead of just seeing “Joe”, “Wang”or “Cunégonde”. Nothing short of alienation. #AbstractUniversalism is the arch-enemy of humanism. Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Jul 2018

@Mehdi_IR_DC It’s so funny to see “progressive” ppl being offended by Trump “disrespecting” the Queen; the very person who believes she is superior than the rest cuz of her blood. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The “Black” Kazars the “Northern” Kazars? Avoid confusion. For discussion: @peterfrankopan @GhassanDahhan https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1017815603778867201   Permalink 10:14 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Question: Is there a reason I did not lose followers? Is the process still going? Permalink 6:40 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For Christmas, a formal edition of the INCERTO (gold leaf etc.). Now 5 volumes. Now working on the (so far) 2 volumes of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. pic.twitter.com/KFUzHPl0Qa Permalink 6:11 AM – 12 Jul 2018

@nntaleb While the business of historians is faithful description of the past, @peterfrankopan specializes in faithful descriptions of the future. https://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/1017106103811919872   Permalink 1:44 PM – 11 Jul 2018

@RonPaul *Special Announcement* Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) To Speak At Ron Paul Institute Conference 2018!! pic.twitter.com/PQmzJRmj6e Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@SS_strength “My understanding of this concept has improved, thanks to my friend Nassim Nicholas Taleb, so I thought I’d share it with you.” https://startingstrength.com/article/the-phenomenology-of-barbell-training   Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Oh my Baal! Chased my Monsanto! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1017074409838927880   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@black_swan_man Page 5… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture #grassfed pic.twitter.com/eaQL6sx4Yg Permalink 8:53 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it. Permalink 5:45 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@mikeandallie (2/4) It is memorable not just for being a good problem but also for illustrating the amazing interaction between Bogomolny and Nassim Taleb. Taleb’s approach always got to the heart of the puzzle quickly and showed me how to share seemingly very advanced problems with kids. pic.twitter.com/csAYIcSXFF Permalink 4:37 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@ClintEhrlich 1st time one reads @nntaleb: Geez, this guy is a dick. So f-ing arrogant! 2nd time: Ok, he’s right. But why does he have to be so rude about it? 3rd time: Taleb is a true gentleman. He makes all the right enemies. https://twitter.com/anandk_00/status/1016694279824031744   Permalink 5:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Something abt Maestro Bogomolny’s @CutTheKnotMath mathematical purity I can now reveal. He had a hearing pblm (0% in ear, ~ in oth.) not remediable using aids. He left academia as he couldn’t communicate. He did math for math, not as a career. He wanted his site to make no $. Permalink 3:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@Steveonomics My favorite LinkedIn comment regarding @SouthwestAir banning peanuts. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/bYx2vQvdGj Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Whole Book in PRogress https://www.dropbox.com/s/x15o6padci0bwgi/Collected.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 2:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb LIMIT DISTRIBUTIONS, a Tutorial (Chapter in the Technical INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/gyJAQ1g6un Permalink 2:15 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@TheLikevillePod @nntaleb talks with the @TheLikevillePod about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, how intellectual-yet-idiots get us into trouble, and much else. https://overcast.fm/+MApFBBGos   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2EBrLwHsAI”>  pic.twitter.com/2EBrLwHsAI Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Excellent response. Doers and Risk Takers >>>Tawkers. Period. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016731812159254529   Permalink 10:46 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In Russian, competitor is конкурент (as in French “concurrent”, Italian “concorrente” cc: @mathieuhelie ), a co-runner. There is no implication of antagonism. You need a “concurrent” because you do not engage in a race against yourself. Permalink 8:25 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@anandk_00 1st time one reads Taleb: it sounds true. 2nd time: one starts being aware of the concepts in operation in ones life, and in general, the world. 3rd time: one wonders how did he/she not get the beauty in the 1st reading itself. Permalink 7:43 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1016675211729670146   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@ThomasSowell “There is much discussion of the haves and the have-nots, but very little discussion of the doers and the do-nots, those who contribute and those who merely take.” Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters @CutTheKnotMath Alexander, I know that you are up there in heaven and I hear there is a wifi connection set up there. So you should be able to tweet your #Math problems to us. We’re getting desperate down here. @nntaleb Permalink 4:13 PM – 9 Jul 2018

@diomavro I can honestly say I’ve learned more about probability and recursion from Alexander than the accumulation of all my university classes. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1015928573411119104   Permalink 5:45 AM – 9 Jul 2018

@GWeynerowski @Likeville hits it out of the park again. This is another fascinating, entertaining conversation led by @john_f_hamer that will make you see the world anew. And as for you, @nntaleb, quit blowing my mind! https://twitter.com/TheLikevillePod/status/1016100679583174657   Permalink 4:55 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb If someone wants a ride w/me, pls mention. I am leaving from Westchester. Permalink 2:18 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb From the family: All meet at Floral Park Cemetery at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow 7/9/2018, 104 Deans Rhode Hall Road, Monmouth Junction, NJ 08852. Tel 732-297-2336. Then ” everyone is welcome in our house afterwards […], East Brunswick, NJ” Permalink 2:15 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 6) The Anachronistic Fallacy, 2 You cannot flow today’s rules of morality backward in time & judge people THEN based on rules developed later. Morality comes from customs (mores). No law should be retroactive, something the bigoteers don’t get. Permalink 9:56 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Had the fellow applied this formidable cunning & astuteness to business he would have been montrously successful. https://nyti.ms/2KFCcOh   Permalink 8:51 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Soccer is fundamentally a high variance game. https://twitter.com/Mehdi_IR_DC/status/1013792319550705665   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 5) THE ANACHRONISTIC FALLACY Injustice was done in the past with invasions, etc. But justice cannot operate without STATUTES of LIMITATIONS: we can’t invoke the Pilgrims, w/o going back to Bronze Age migrations. Arguments abt who did what >100 y ago are necessarily invalid. Permalink 5:32 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) Immigration requires sacrifice and skin in the game. pic.twitter.com/djbetZXJBP Permalink 5:15 AM – 2 Jul 2018

Russians, Old Arbat, Academics, Twitter, Sunstein, Friedman, The “LEFT”, Taxes, “irrationality”, Intolerance – Twitter

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@nntaleb It is very dangerous for intelligent people to be paranoid. In The Black Swan, 11 years ago pic.twitter.com/De5Di711my Permalink 5:48 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The Russian pathological fixation is such that in the mind of those afflicted EVERYTHING has to have some Russian angle.https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/936035649278406658   Permalink 5:39 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Now when it comes to history, this is the real ting.https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/934752184109027328   Permalink 4:40 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As proof that the Arabic alphabet not adapted to Lebanese, in Garshuni ܐܶ vs in Arabic ايه which is NEVER the correct sound. The Latin Alphabet remains close to the Phoenician alphabet & much more adapted to our sounds. Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@jackrim1 Possibly one of the best book cover quotes ever @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/YaxDIW1sNA Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb GQ is the philosopher John Gray. Permalink 3:20 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanks friends, instead of having endorsements from hotshots we opted for “Joe from Chicago” style blurbs –real not fake readers. pic.twitter.com/XL5OjIK0sm Permalink 3:17 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The code. Argument that 13 has highest probability to follow. pic.twitter.com/M0nYfUmZzC Permalink 12:03 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The water in Moscow makes you more formal with probability. Solving a @CutTheKnotMath problem https://www.dropbox.com/s/yeursepeln1v8kw/GordianNov29Probability.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zf1AcNFU2W”>  pic.twitter.com/zf1AcNFU2W Permalink 12:00 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@Learn_lebanese The Lebanese É does not exist in Arabic. šÉyef fÉyet LebnÉn #LebaneseVsArabic Permalink 6:19 AM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #2: if you are tipsy, there is some elegance you need to maintain. Permalink 1:48 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #1: to get drunk with Russians, train to the following: no shame in being tipsy. It takes some training. Permalink 1:42 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@mdpopescu This. It drives me nuts (one might say it triggers me ) to see scientists take credit for engineers’ work. Scientists tell you that lasers cannot possibly work. Engineers make them work anyway. Scientists come back and claim another victory for science.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/935535056419946496   Permalink 10:10 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the discussion in Antifragile about “academic” discoveries that were in fact made by practitioners. pic.twitter.com/xiLZdPOkzi Permalink 7:45 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Errata: Meant 1 in 100,000. Also note that the net contribution of economics/finance is negative. Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb I need some help. I am in Old Arbat trying to buy trinkets and need a more reliable souvenir shop. Permalink 5:37 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Which explains why, in Georgian restaurants in Moscow, I am greeted like a local cousin until I open my mouth. pic.twitter.com/jqhDlVk12j Permalink 5:31 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The odds of an academic “researcher” producing anything eventually used by society is of the order of .00001%. That includes scientists. The odds for a baker: 100% Permalink 5:08 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People collectively chosen for their misunderstanding of tail risk, both before and after the crisis.https://twitter.com/BarbarianCap/status/935301358227517440   Permalink 2:57 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We face 3 predators: The State, Near-State Institutions (e.g. academia, media) & Large Corporations. Large corps end up destroying themselves (life expec. <10 y in SP500). Others stick and grow.https://twitter.com/RalphNader/status/935189825229152256   Permalink 2:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem with Lebanon is rent-seeking (and the inequality coming from it), not inequality per se. Permalink 2:04 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words Krugman falls for the mistake: “For academics there is no difference between academia and the real world. In the real world there is”. pic.twitter.com/BYujVSb0Nu Permalink 12:48 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Inded ideas don’t have skin in the game if the people holding them don’t.https://twitter.com/AustinEinhorn/status/935299974589382657   Permalink 12:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@maciejolpinski why a 17 year old altcoin trader might be more ‘rational’ than any Twitter crypto-theorist (including myself), opinion without option < option without opinion pic.twitter.com/QZ35RKH4QR Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sloppiness alert: rising “life expectancy” has no effect on social security. It is driven by childhood mortality. You care about conditional life expectancy >65 (or 68). This is very common mistake.https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warning-social-security-faces-a-23-cut-2017-11-27?link=sfmw_tw   Permalink 2:24 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that neither medicine nor engineering are academia-driven pursuits, rather practice and apprenticeship-based. Permalink 2:14 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum 2 Antikhrupkost Permalink 1:03 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Footnote: Lektchuring Birds How to Fly in Antifragile discusses the myth that science -> technology, rather than reverse. Permalink 12:48 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@The_Cyrenian But by all means, send hundreds of millions more to terrorists to keep killing Syrian Christians like me and burning our churches to the ground… pic.twitter.com/mR8b8GaJrh Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Academics, when they leave academia become at best back-office support staff, not decision-makers. Not like the grocery store owner who owns his own risk. Permalink 10:23 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: Москва Permalink 9:59 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb If majority of academics vote Democrat, it is not random: they 1) don’t have skin in the game, (others take risks for them) 2) are not productive members of society but want to lecture others on what to do 3) have steady income etc.https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/934863186494459904   Permalink 9:52 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mockba Many many Russians interested in Antikhtupkim and disorder… Was told there is no Russian recipe for squid ink. pic.twitter.com/gfIIYLjvO4 Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The NYT generalizing: because its friends have problems, ALL men are a problem. Shoddy. Same defensive generalization when I accuse someone w/o skin in the game of being a BS vendor/pseudoexpert: Taleb calls “everybody” a BS vendor/pseudoexpert. Permalink 1:02 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words, such a reasoning would lead to preemptively arrest all vegetarians w/mustache. Permalink 12:19 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The logical fallacy of affirming the consequent. If ALL wars are preceded by tensions, NOT ALL tensions lead to war (empirically, most tensions lead to agreements/parties). If ALL members of the Smith family all tall, NOT ALL tall pple from Smith family.https://twitter.com/TheViewFromLL2/status/934596850895777792   Permalink 12:08 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@TMFStoffel When I read things like this — supporting @nntaleb’s theory of the body’s antifragility and the eventual harm of interventionism — it makes me wonder about ever icing a pulled muscle, taking ibuprofen, etc again https://www.thedailybeast.com/let-it-burn-why-you-should-let-fevers-run-their-course   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ua8SKljKvm”>  pic.twitter.com/ua8SKljKvm Permalink 8:55 PM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb A speculation in Antifragile.https://twitter.com/yzilber/status/934841513787326464   Permalink 10:00 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@romepix A moment in #Naples #Italy pic.twitter.com/9ynFP1a5zn Permalink 5:40 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Finally getting rid of IYIs and Empty Suits.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/934446997288964097   Permalink 4:21 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Twitter getting a taste of its medicine.https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/934504253661630465   Permalink 12:38 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ergodic measures of inequality give a v. different story. Cc: @ole_b_peters Permalink 12:34 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is class-envy driven BS both statistically & philosophically. Unfortunately it is infecting Lebanon.https://twitter.com/karimbitar/status/934660336761888769   Permalink 12:32 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Presence in South England: You can see how an Anatolian/Syrian gene went NorthWest with Roman soldiers (the “diversity” of that ignorant Mary Beard). Permalink 2:12 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 20 years ago…https://twitter.com/murkycwaters/status/934512451617542144   Permalink 1:05 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Attention conspiracists: I am on my way to Moscow. Just letting you know, speculate & theorize. (Last trip was cut short for personal reasons.) Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning.https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/934159382874640386   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning. https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/934159382874640386   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The point is not so much plagiarism as the fact that readers get offended seeing ethical breaches. Permalink 6:56 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Plagiarism alert: by one Luca de Sandro in @StartingFinance. Luckily, readers shout fraud when they see fraud. pic.twitter.com/6s9AG4Kj2y Permalink 6:40 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Statists who want to impose topdown solutions on pple agst their will have the NERVE to talk abt “authoritarianism”. “Nudger” @CassSunstein, clueless abt risk/probability, tried to manipulate citizens under Obama, (s.a. prevent them from knowing they were consuming GMOs). pic.twitter.com/KDKGnu0Xr7 Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The bankruptcy of the NYT? of Monsanto? The collapse of Saudi Barbaria? pic.twitter.com/UYU4uuWV7j Permalink 5:01 PM – 24 Nov 2017

@GabrielSaidR I agree but religion did matter here – it was a Sufi mosque. https://twitter.com/quixoticnada/status/934108668919992320   Permalink 11:50 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@anhistorian In honor of Thomas Friedman’s latest love letter to Saudi here is 70 years of the NY Times describing #Saudi royals in the language of #reform. Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arabic root same as other Semitic ones. pic.twitter.com/juriVuOw6c Permalink 7:20 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the reasoning defect by which Arabist idiots and Western IYIs deem that if word in Levantine has similar Arabic root, it comes FROM Arabic. On Wikipedia Levantine is called “Levantine Arabic” when Arabic came LATER. Permalink 7:14 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: I meant גבר in Heb not גָדוֹל. GVR root. Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algebra is NOT necessarily from Arabic. That’s the problem w/ignorant historians of science. 2 roots: AKKADIAN (Babylon): gabaru =>compute(equivalence betw. solar & lunar._ CANNANITE & ARAMAIC: GBR is to “make bigger” (גָדוֹל in Heb = powerful), gabra= man/strong in Aram.https://twitter.com/Acts17/status/933787306766585858   Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The J2b1 concentration, while hard to reverse-engineer w/the (elementary) probability used by geneticists, is relatively easy to do via Brownian Bridge. pic.twitter.com/3dBUtWofvo Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb New book uses Thomas Friedman @tomfriedman as representative of the criminally stupid no-skin in the game BS vendor/pearshape warmonger who destroys societies. pic.twitter.com/oxXI6a9xfK Permalink 5:08 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Final, with thanks. pic.twitter.com/6LPagRXYUw Permalink 3:47 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My attempt at solution. pic.twitter.com/YqNFE3kdEh Permalink 2:37 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Dear @ehsani22, relax, NYT’s @tomfriedman is the perfect negative indicator; NEVER been right on anything: Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Leb, Trump, globalization, complexity. Means MBS and Saudi Barbaria are doomed.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/933855871653867520   Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@mns Crucial point. Overuse of words we have to describe atrocities not only diminishes victims of those past atrocities, but it blunts the main weapon (language) we have to prevent future atrocitieshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/933305380544962561   Permalink 3:36 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) Monoculturist. Permalink 9:58 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that I put “LEFT” in quotes. A lot of people on the left w/discernment abilities or civil libertarians, pacifists, nonstatists, localists, communitarians, etc. do not identify w/such a category. Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanksgiving Quiz, continuation of @CutTheKnotMath’s random interval problem. https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/933024468527611904   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ShgW12b8XQ”>  pic.twitter.com/ShgW12b8XQ Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The “LEFT”: Repressive. Anti-localist, anti-decentralization. Anti freedom of speech. Warmongering, militarist. Interventionist. Manipulation of pple w/nudges. Elitist/IYI. Anti self-determination of minorities worldwide. Race obsessed. Pro-Salafascists. Anti #SkinintheGame Permalink 6:08 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Decisions are not about epistemic beliefs, but operational ones. Religion is often very rational…https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 12:16 PM – 22 Nov 2017

@AStratelates Nope. As @nntaleb points out, EVEN IF THE SUPERNATURAL DOESN’T EXIST and prayer doesn’t work, it fulfills our intervention tendency without harm. You’re just a bigoted asshole if you’re denigrating people praying.https://twitter.com/ArtturiArtturi/status/933254493373788160   Permalink 9:58 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@DonTravlos As the son of one of the victims of hitler glad someone with the authority of a Taleb finally said it Permalink 9:47 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@garyruskin “The best virtue requires courage,” writes @nntaleb http://bit.ly/2zr7yq7   “If I were to describe the perfect virtuous acts, it would be to take currently frowned upon positions, those penalized by the common discourse (particularly when funded by lobbyists).” ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yW0viTtm4a”>  pic.twitter.com/yW0viTtm4a Permalink 6:42 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Blabbering Pseudolib Idiots Took Over Academia: The idea of comparing someone to Hitler: 1) who doesn’t actively conduct genocide, 2) invade neighbors, 3) muzzles speech , 4) etc. is an insult to the true victims of Hitler.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/933068639867084800   Permalink 4:05 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@CaesarIpse An inmersive week in philosophy, finance, markets and risk taking from bright practitioners who know their “ting” and awesome peers!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/932985129202520064   Permalink 12:20 PM – 21 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A problem of random intervals https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RandomIntervals.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Nq0X7BVNbp”>  pic.twitter.com/Nq0X7BVNbp Permalink 9:29 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 12) The Scandinavians (and the Swiss) get it that taxation requires a level of TRUST found in municipalities, possibly regions, never large anonymous states. (Scalability & Skin in the Game)https://twitter.com/liberbabian/status/933006238434058240   Permalink 8:57 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We managed with RWRI a technical education that has no BS no pol correctness &no admin fat. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10155395509003375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4U4LdCwlmn”>  pic.twitter.com/4U4LdCwlmn Permalink 6:52 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 11) As tribes grow, I can understand paying protection money to warriors: Pax Romana/Ottomana/Habsburgianana even Americana to preserve PROPERTY RIGHTS. Historical rate ~2-10%. It is much harder to understand coercive redistribution & subsidies to rent seeking bureaucrats. Permalink 6:28 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 10) SCALING. A- Imagine you’re a hunter. You give a share (say ⅓) to a pool for invalid members of tribe; for social norms & #SITG symmetry. B- Community grows, someone FORCES you to give ⅓ to an administration managed far away, some of it pays salary of P. Krugman. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb You mean this Falkenstein? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   Permalink 4:41 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mr @_tomazy 1) #Jews went down in Bagdad & Cairo by 100% and 99.99% (not an approximation). If that’s not evidence, I don’t what is. 2) The explicit mission by Qatar/KSA is a Sunni replacement to Alawis. Thank you. Permalink 1:13 PM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 9) CLASS ENVY isn’t from truck driver in South Texas, but from a NY/DC Ivy League educated IYI (Krugman, Stiglitz) w/sense of entitlement upset some “less smart” pple are much richer.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 11:49 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb That’s the problem with Big Government, not one with taxation. Gabish? Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 8) When you disguize CLASS ENVY as an intellectual argument (as Piketty, Krugman, IYIs), it always, always shows. Permalink 7:58 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 7) So we accept tht taxes are collective coersion; we can make it rational by allowing groups to form their own communities w/their own collective rules, as in CHF. This is why the ONLY political orientation I have is LOCALISM. Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 6) I only reply to comments that are wrong, not those that are sufficiently stupid to be “not even wrong”. Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 5) In that sense taxation can be seen as a Punishment ( جزية) on the wealthy for them to be allowed to stay wealthy. Which is OK, but don’t be fooled. Permalink 6:36 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 4) Islamic law gives insights: taxes are separated as 1) Charity ( زكاة, alms) vs. 2) Punishment ( جزية) (on Dhimmis (like me) to be allowed to stay Christian+ خراج). Charity (~2-3%) goes to the poor, Punishment to state coffers/military. Charity implies *thanking* benefactor. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Accept disproportionate taxation, but be no fool: it is the coercive result of 1man-1vote just as in past it was military force. in LCD, it is patronage. In past, taxation was disguized as “Protection” & small, w/~5-15%. Then became “services”. Now “fairness”. Permalink 6:09 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The reason we have “progressive” taxation is the 1 person-1 vote, with the spin that zero-sum, which applies only to IYI jobs.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 5:24 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fake narrative to justify expropriation: 1% of taxpayers pay ~ half of taxes for SAME services. You want them to pay 110%? 200%?https://twitter.com/B_Ehrenreich/status/931934347699073027   Permalink 4:57 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@bthies_watashi Legibility, explained. https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/07/26/a-big-little-idea-called-legibility/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/C38sFtQIPe”>  pic.twitter.com/C38sFtQIPe Permalink 4:23 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arab League = Sunni League. States that will be outside of it will prosper. Like Malta. Permalink 3:28 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 1st step, Arab states delegitimized their Jews (1940s) 2nd, they deligitimized Copts (1950s) 3rd, they deligitimized Maronites (1970s) 4th, they deligitimized Alawis (2011) Final step, they deligitimized Shiites (2017) Which means good luck to the Sunni League. .https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/932384538239660034   Permalink 3:19 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Exactly my argument “surgeons should not look like surgeons”!!!https://twitter.com/DamnPatriot/status/932351341531451392   Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Problem 4186 from the Crux Mathematicorum Mathematicorum https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Calculus/Crux4186.shtml   #FigureThat #math #calculus #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/u76CAdUgyH”>  pic.twitter.com/u76CAdUgyH Permalink 9:15 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Another chapter shows that individual “irrationality” is necessary for collective behavior. Also almost all of Thaler’s work misuses probability distributions.https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 8:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nudging is a mechanism that lead you to act according to Thaler and Sunstein both very ignorant of probability, & increases risk in society.https://twitter.com/timurkuran/status/932285532847124480   Permalink 8:39 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Added this to the final draft: the problem with universalists. pic.twitter.com/tdRAnB829K Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Many pseudolibs & other idiots who replied to the Persian Muslim wife point don’t get it that the ONLY evidence of nonracism is one’s private life.https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 6:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@BadgerPundit For 99% of us, better to block, not mute. Here’s the classic argument for that: https://www.gadgette.com/2016/05/20/why-its-better-to-mute-your-twitter-trolls-than-block-them  . But Taleb’s in a different situation, as many read his thread, and he needs to block people who ruin them for everyone. A tragedy-of-the-commons problem. Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb NITPICKING: Commenting/debating a point of no relevance to the substance of the argument; whether right or wrong, no effect, while distracting pple. Gabish? Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is a prime example of nitpicking coupled with distortion of my initial statement.https://twitter.com/LouaiWafa/status/932231680240136193   Permalink 5:42 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Should I block this responder?https://twitter.com/PwoodsNY/status/932239710788911104   Permalink 5:33 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sunday Heuristic: Block nitpickers before trolls as they damage the discourse much more effectively by diverting it (pple engage nitpickers more than trolls). Permalink 4:53 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb They don’t mention that Wahabis in Saudi Barbaria currently ban dogs as impure animals.http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/11/these-may-be-world-s-first-images-dogs-and-they-re-wearing-leashes   Permalink 4:28 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Why is it that pple, in 2017, still don’t get the properties of Fat Tails? Is it a reasoning defect or because it is so hard? @DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/ramez/status/916803279362834437   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) And ha! Zaraqu means both BLUE and GREEN! pic.twitter.com/cxTuXtdgUa Permalink 4:44 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) In Aramaic, both Green and Yellow <= ירוק pic.twitter.com/QdPw809iFU Permalink 4:34 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tarjamt Taḱt Prokrustes xal kinxané-jdid (Modern Canaanite). pic.twitter.com/2wl4yhstXF Permalink 12:37 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tit for tat game theoretic Popper’s Paradox: the minute you cease to tolerate, I become intolerant.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/931914784035008513   Permalink 8:37 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Saturday. Recall frm Antifragile that Greeks (and Heb) had no word for color blue. Closest old semitic word for Green is…Erz (->Cedar) or 7ashab (->wood) or ירוק ورق ->paper Permalink 7:31 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@shrykescythe Mike was never even the biggest voice or totally convinced on Pizzagate, yet media decided to do everything to stick the label on him. Brainwashed sheep just parrot “Pizzagate guy” without ever studying the facts. Permalink 6:57 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb When I have drinks w/someone on the left (I do weekly), nobody on the right bothers me. When I have drinks w/someone on the right, the “left” goes wild. (f*** them). #PopperParadox: never, never tolerate intolerance. Permalink 5:45 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In Brazil, I thought kidnappers settled for 10-20% of the NW of the victim. Saudi Arabia: 70%. Corruption Schmoruption: none shd ever invest in Aramco, stock in a country that expropriates to balance budget. #ضد_آل_سعود Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@mikeandallie Finding e by throwing darts: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/11/18/finding-e-by-throwing-darts/   #math #mathchat inspired by @nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath @giohio and @JohnAllenPaulos Permalink 5:17 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Green Brexit push set to continue despite amendments defeat > Yes: we fight on to save the @PrecPrinciple! [Pse RT!]https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/3021199/green-brexit-push-continues-despite-amendments-defeat   Permalink 4:42 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb How do I know that @Cernovich is not racist? #SkinintheGame: He has a Persian Muslim wife (& a half Persian daughter). Ignore talk (by pple & abt pple), observe what people do. Permalink 3:40 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@hichambh Looks like chef Sébastien Bras has read the work of @nntaleb Acclaimed French chef asks to be stripped of three Michelin starshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/20/sebastien-bras-french-chef-three-michelin-stars-le-suquet-laguiole?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lecture on Cybercrime at RWRI 6: Our policy now is to hire instructors from 1) past attendees 2) people who practice exactly what they talk about. No academic should teach anything nonacademic. pic.twitter.com/A81t3glD7E Permalink 6:40 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Mike C @Cernovich pic.twitter.com/ye98U8cCxf Permalink 5:49 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Voila https://www.dropbox.com/s/5n9qosuiqso97cz/GordianNov17.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Ij0TsjQTaI”>  pic.twitter.com/Ij0TsjQTaI Permalink 5:16 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Just a reminder that, as a philosopher @mpigliucci has a problem with Truth.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 4:19 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@mackthefresh Last day of Real World Risk with @nntaleb. It’s been great! Still waiting for the deadlift demonstration though. pic.twitter.com/a3hVo2Y17K Permalink 8:23 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An inequality in 2+2 variables from SSMA magazine https://www.cut-the-knot.org/arithmetic/algebra/SSMA5454.shtml   #FigureThat #math#algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qwC7TpSWnG”>  pic.twitter.com/qwC7TpSWnG Permalink 8:03 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thought of the day: never trust the thought & science of anyone who is not free. Being free means no honors, no position, nothing other than one’s own thought. pic.twitter.com/nUZo5gbB3V Permalink 5:30 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Some people get that universalism & globalism lead to monoculture.https://twitter.com/startupdaemon/status/931241391468023808   Permalink 11:24 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My answer is here: SITG vs CONFLICT OF INTEREST pic.twitter.com/F0NeZ4VnUG Permalink 7:46 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@ProbFact Chaos and the beta distribution https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2017/09/27/quadratic-iteration-distribution/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aNeM4LBDcZ”>  pic.twitter.com/aNeM4LBDcZ Permalink 7:12 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@MaxAbrahms Since the start of the Cold War the strategy of U.S. Mideast proxies has been to sell themselves as strategic assets by constantly adjusting their professed utility depending on the latest geopolitical threat.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/931164578431475712   Permalink 6:22 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead The House of Commons has just voted against retaining the @PrecPrinciple into UK law. Good bye protection; hello recklessness and potential devastation of our posterity. A shameful failure of leadership. [Please RT.]https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/930926163735863296   Permalink 11:57 PM – 15 Nov 2017

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@nntaleb Not just this idiot but MSM journos keeps calling “tyrant” a person who never ran a country. Minimum IQ required!https://twitter.com/ARoss2929/status/820430811241521153   Permalink 4:51 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Sorry, poor unassisted and courageous Yemen, I keep forgetting.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/820422471887241216   Permalink 4:45 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 6) Obama allowed bankers to have the biggest bonus pool in history, in 2010, just after we bailed them out. Plus Geithner a rep of cronyK. Permalink 4:20 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Michael Flynn’s career because he was opposed to covert policy of financing/training AlQaeda in Syria @mjb1286 Permalink 4:14 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@yaneerbaryam Tail risk decision-maker, protector of the system. The Prez is the risk manager not the risk creator. Permalink 4:11 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5) Obama favored Jihadi headchoppers over secularists, financed AlQaeda, wrecked Lybia & Syria, decimated Christian communities. Shame! Permalink 4:08 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 4) Obama-novacaine left us with 10 trillion gov debt for 7-10 mil jobs and hugely increased fragility in the system. Permalink 4:04 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Basically “no scandal in his presidency” sums it all: for we didn’t elect an archbishop for sermons & lectures, but a decision-maker. Permalink 4:00 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) His legacy is an increased centralization in the most complex system we’ve seen, instead of exact opposite. Not the America I want. Permalink 3:58 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) My summary of Obama: He is the fellow who, when there is fire in the building, makes a great moving speech, then calls for advice. Permalink 3:56 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Dina Powell is a Copt. She is no “Arab” American; shameful on their part to use identity politics w/wrong identity. @EHSANI22 Permalink 3:43 PM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb PhilologyParadoxduJour. Levantine for man is zalmé/zolm, Syriac for small/weak; man in W. Semitic GVR, frm ~strong pic.twitter.com/PJOwRRFixH Permalink 9:26 AM – 14 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fails to get that separation isn’t “populist” vs”technical” but Real World competence vs academic “tawk” @tylercowenhttp://bv.ms/2jevRhY   Permalink 7:48 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You can tell at the arguments used if a person is a crypto-ISIS supporter. “We hate ISIS *but* first… “https://twitter.com/Pyrmha108/status/820062894679330816   Permalink 7:00 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Davos is the Intellectual Yet Idiots IYIs annual convention, joined w/the International Association of Name Droppershttps://twitter.com/linear911/status/820074029994258432   Permalink 6:42 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Great place for Apollo worshippershttps://twitter.com/g_exercitus/status/819993119173255168   Permalink 12:56 PM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually, I would say further, @CutTheKnotMath is the best educational math site on the internet! Permalink 8:58 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Went today to the Roman temple to honor Apollo & found it profanated with Santa Claus & Christmas decorations. pic.twitter.com/X3KTcVQQxE Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From what I’ve noticed linguists don’t get co-linearity, make statistical fallacies @akhchronicles @siinjiim pic.twitter.com/NGjJOijCqL Permalink 7:48 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My first Follow Friday #FF is to @CutTheKnotMath. Follow his twitter math problems for edification, pleasure, or to kill time in airports! Permalink 7:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proving Levantine is not derived from Arabic leads to same for most other so-called “colloquial Arabic” dialects & “Arabism” to fall apart. Permalink 5:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shemesh is finally shining on the Southern slope of Mount Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/zBsLMqNwFf Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila, in Classical Syriac Baqara also cow @candela3paz pic.twitter.com/iZZ0E9Xvw6 Permalink 4:11 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “House”is “Beit”in Hebrew/Phoenician, Aramaic,& spoken Levantine (rboso), Bayt in Arabic. For idiotArab nationalists, it comes from Arabic. Permalink 3:02 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Today Snow in Mount Lebanon with ominous clouds (from my window). pic.twitter.com/yIhgfx5k7Y Permalink 2:46 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Words such as “syrup” or “sorbet” that come from Arabic actually have Aramaic roots SRB: parched (to offset) pic.twitter.com/uwnqqjgsXo Permalink 2:38 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Much of the similarities between Levantine & Arabic come from Aramaic loan words into Arabic, particularly religious ones @seize_the_dave Permalink 1:31 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Arab “nationalists” believe & spread the BS that pple in the Levant had NO language before the Arabs showed up. In fact it is the reverse. Permalink 1:28 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, I consider an IQ test, rather “Intellectual Yet Idiot” test: IYIs are pro-GMOs for “scientific” reasons.https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.s8o3lvf46   Permalink 12:39 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Also 538 DOES NOT have a good Brier Score: You shd include ALL forecasts! @rpmiller4 @SamWangPhD pic.twitter.com/cpSzbelnS0 Permalink 12:29 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@rpmiller4 @DavisMets @SamWangPhD Brier score doesn’t cover tail risk. Would you use it for airplanes? Permalink 12:22 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Sam Wang who gave Trump <1% shd now know enough abt forecast errors to respect risk @DavisMets @SamWangPhD http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 12:13 AM – 13 Jan 2017

@nntaleb LEvantine vocabulary, 80% of words used in conversation (Zipf). Very few words have Arabic origin (conflations). pic.twitter.com/eL1j8U1wZi Permalink 10:37 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Never trust a journalist except if she’s your mother. (Bed of Procrustes)https://twitter.com/diannawolfe13/status/819423309259481089   Permalink 10:00 PM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The prof doesn’t get it. Tenured profs are there to “pursue the truth” but to make a career. Amateurs pursue truth.http://wpo.st/zlyQ2   Permalink 9:50 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am certain I am not the only one to see Rex Tillerson as one day President of the United States.http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2017/01/11/tillerson-to-senate-sanctions-harm-american.html   Permalink 8:31 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@DrCirillo Last version of the paper with @nntaleb about operational risk and apparently infinite means: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2681006   A few typos corrected. Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@EHSANI22 Rex Tillerson explaining to senators Russian role in global order is like a Professor talking to …………. Permalink 7:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@iyad_elbaghdadi You contradict yourself. This is inconsistent w/your classification of Maltese as nonArabs from genes in spite of lang. Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am convinced that Michiko Kakutani is mentally ill. @michikokakutani pic.twitter.com/qn1wVTKgcn Permalink 5:49 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@denver_analyst “Inequality and Skin in the Game” — @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#—0-144.tvz4diwpr   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS”>  pic.twitter.com/ewcaGWLIXS Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Justinian’s code: ~ 50 vol generally on symmetry in transactions! Many clauses originally Berytus. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/6Q6cSwbqLu Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Yes, illusion that ideas make it because of some methodological stamp, rather test of time via Lindy @BruBartonSinger @aeronlaffere Permalink 4:34 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I ban Huffington Post from publishing my material that is otherwise public to others.https://twitter.com/TankRizzo/status/819157902392967168   Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Malta speaks a Semitic language v. close to Levantine;but nobody insists it’s a “dialect of Arabic”. No ArabLeague.https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/819143770084085760   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added more sections to my chapter on Lindy https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.u6g3y6ya1   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S”>  pic.twitter.com/0KZcPnvg4S Permalink 3:40 AM – 11 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reading Theodosius’ code looking for #SkinintheGame & symmetry in transaction. Sharia is too sophisticated to come from Arabia @hosain719 Permalink 1:57 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If @realDonaldTrump ate ice cream, Krugman wd criticize ice cream. If he ate apples,he wd criticize apples. This is info abt Krugman not DT. Permalink 12:50 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@RonPaulInstitut Where Was Meryl Streep When Obama Was Prosecuting Whistleblowers & Bombing Weddings? http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/january/10/where-was-meryl-streep-when-obama-was-prosecuting-whistleblowers-bombing-weddings/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm”>  pic.twitter.com/rUBxrLfIdm Permalink 12:35 PM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Three stages of the Christmas cheese from M. Spitznagel’s goat farm. pic.twitter.com/OVfNpsxjEf Permalink 9:59 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Not racial: was Rome’s way to control Green-Card marriages. Legal liabilities more punishing for those marrying non citizens (“barbarians”) Permalink 7:29 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Interesting Fact du jour. Theodosius code:Marrying a Barbarian(“gentile”)=capital punishment. Rule made in Beirut. pic.twitter.com/GbpxzydE7w Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Added section to https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ia7askabt   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax”>  pic.twitter.com/mVwAvl3Yax Permalink 4:58 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@philmop Empirical vs Theoretic, Researchers vs Grandmothers, @nntaleb’s top piece on the deprostitutionalization of research http://bit.ly/2jy5VP9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F”>  pic.twitter.com/vO4UiWpv8F Permalink 3:00 AM – 10 Jan 2017

@NIRPUmbrella A smart PhD economist on his economic outlook after reading ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. #Complexity pic.twitter.com/xkxEIwZdX9 Permalink 4:21 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It is as hard to fake indifference when you are interested as it is to fake interest when you are indifferent. Permalink 12:52 PM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is a more technical version of the problem of non constant Pareto \alpha https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   @BrankoMilan Permalink 11:11 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My Amazon review of a real book on Foreign Affairs https://www.amazon.com/review/R1MPOC1YEX7D5R/ref=cm_cr_dp_title?ie=UTF8&ASIN=9351777596&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=283155&store=books   Permalink 10:41 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Do you realize this puts you –as a classicist — on top of the pyramid? @ArmandDAngour Permalink 9:45 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Parag Khanna’s ideas about technocracy, US, Singapore, Switz, & why we need smaller Washingtonhttp://wpo.st/I2UQ2   Permalink 6:32 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I just published “An Expert Called Lindy”https://medium.com/p/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cannanite Shift @oldlevantine @lourou1981 You good; very good. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canaanite_shift   Permalink 4:44 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Stiglitz is the poifect reverse indicatorhttps://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/818251394817937408   Permalink 4:24 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@normonics Uncontrolled spreading of environmentally detrimental GMO — systemic risk!! http://fooledbyrandomness.com/pp2.pdf  http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/01/grass_seed_industry_fearful_ab.html   Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb #MathisBeautiful Fixed! @CutTheKnotMath @republicofmath pic.twitter.com/0ISJqe5OSg Permalink 10:53 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@DanielLMcAdams Does anyone believe Christmas would be celebrated in Aleppo if Washington’s jihadist head-choppers had “liberated” it?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/818088570623770625   Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb There were large Armenian quarters in Jerusalem, Aleppo, Alexandria BEFORE the Genocide, thanks to diff church didn’t integrate @TNinestein Permalink 7:45 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Reexplaining the Lindy Effect as well as why is free he who doesn’t care about his reputation. pic.twitter.com/H9w9dPYcQv Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Aleppo depended on Cilicia during Tigran’s dominance. @TNinestein pic.twitter.com/1NW4FLEpLQ Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Armenian Christmas in Aleppo. The Armenian comm. precedes the Arab conquest. Still there in spite of Hussain Obama https://twitter.com/ThierryMARIANI/status/818027631073492992   Permalink 5:34 AM – 8 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Ms Anya policygoonocrat @AnyaMartin8, pls find a SINGLE concept in my writing not backed up with rigorous technical formulation. Thanks you. Permalink 1:24 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A businessperson cares abt his reputation as it facilitates business, not as an end. For people who aren’t free, reputation is the end. Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 5 abstract & ill-defined words in 140chr: “strong” “vital partner””free” “dictatorship” i.e., can apply to anything.https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/817811092575584260   Permalink 11:30 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@elkement Bookmarked @nntaleb’s post on The New Artisan https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153860152453375   I read it whenever I feel to falter as a small business owner. Permalink 7:09 AM – 7 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/cYb1QTGudM Permalink 5:37 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it. Permalink 1:09 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb All talk. It is not people on twitter one shd impress, but the taxmanhttps://twitter.com/AnnPettifor/status/817405431702323200   Permalink 12:31 PM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shadi Hamid @shadihamid represents the interests of the funders of AlQeda. Much worse than neocon. @FedUpCitizen_ Permalink 11:16 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And I forgot to add the Copts who deserve our attention the most!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/817409792406855680   Permalink 11:11 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb To my Armenian and Russian Orthodox friends, Merry Christmas! Permalink 8:37 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proof that entropy under 2nd law leads to thin tails,or why Pinker is a charlatan @sapinker @yaneerbaryam pic.twitter.com/KEmdqFg61J Permalink 7:17 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Nobody is noticing: the entropy error by Pinker boy @sapinker is precisely what leads pple to believe in thintails everywhere. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Syria is the victim of “hotel journalism”: war correspondents clustering in Beirut, far from Aleppo. TBS, 10y ago: pic.twitter.com/pV8zLUybkv Permalink 4:30 AM – 6 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or there is something wrong with Steven Pinker @sapinker pronouncements on scientific topics? @yaneerbaryamhttps://medium.com/@yaneerbaryam/brief-comment-on-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics-in-human-affairs-885105dc8419?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1483664469   Permalink 5:02 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@dnlmc @nntaleb Ben Franklin on IYIs (from https://twitter.com/dnlmc/status/810331163797712896  ) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp”>  pic.twitter.com/uW9ho5Zywp Permalink 4:07 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I’ve learned more tricks & heuristics from Rory than I’ve learned from all other English speaking humans.https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/817059502944112640   Permalink 1:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The usual illustration confirming Math is Beautiful @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/jKsLrjWlm4 Permalink 12:37 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They live in Washington DC @digvijoy_c @MaxAbrahms Permalink 12:16 PM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The Babylonian root is shitpu, ashaptu, ashabu, etc.: surge in fire; looking for Ugaritic @asadabukhalil @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/esBeT7AnRd Permalink 11:24 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@leithfadel Hi @ABarnardNYT – Why did you leave out the part where Kerry says the US used ISIS to pressure Assad to negotiate?http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/30/world/middleeast/john-kerry-syria-audio.html   Permalink 11:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If you want to make sure someone never misses your tweets, block him. Permalink 9:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@elliotsanchez @nntaleb Guidelines were wrong for years, we should introduce stressors early for 80% less allergies. Shocked http://www.cbsnews.com/news/peanut-allergies-new-guidelines-for-parents-children/   Permalink 8:07 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shob is in Syriac, apparently not in Arabic @lourou1981 pic.twitter.com/rw96tu221b Permalink 4:38 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@anishraju As always, @nntaleb stays ever relevant. In 2017, subtract unhappiness instead of adding happiness. pic.twitter.com/mw037RwTfj Permalink 3:06 AM – 5 Jan 2017

@MaxAbrahms Do you find it troubling when think tanks that get foreign funding from terrorist-sponsoring countries provide US national security advice? Permalink 7:27 PM – 4 Jan 2017

@JAMyerson It can be easy to overstate the anti-anti-Assad case, but this look at western coverage of Aleppo strikes me as legit and reasonable.https://twitter.com/FAIRmediawatch/status/816692382116806656   Permalink 11:30 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Genuine [the book’s contents]https://twitter.com/khayutsefi/status/816699513494794240   Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) The HKM in Heb/Ar are associated with wisdom, HKM= to arbitrate. Here spoken Levantine still uses the original meaning “to medicate”. Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or something pathological fighting Russia when armed state w/~7mil pop. beheads Americans,kills civilians in West & >10K nonSunnis? Permalink 7:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Philology dujour: Akkadian calls doctors Hakkamu,just as Levantine does 4200y later, medicate=Hakkam (Ar = Tabbab) pic.twitter.com/UF69JuEYKU Permalink 6:51 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@ZEEJLF Join @nntaleb as he discusses his multi-volume essay on uncertainty with writer & economist @davidmcw at Cox & Kings Charbagh at #ZEEJLF. pic.twitter.com/NiukpbnDvK Permalink 6:35 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@1rapidus He is not passing for intellectual. Kapish? Permalink 5:40 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Intellectual Yet Idiot struck a cord as it was obvious. *Intellectual Yet Philistine* is even worse. Idiot is ok, No Erudition is fatal Permalink 5:23 AM – 4 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Now that we are discovering how dumb the “elite” effectively is, plus IYI , they will never recover. Mystique gone.https://twitter.com/David_GISI/status/816444194805968896   Permalink 6:04 PM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Assembly in Aleppo: you can see visibly Western Syrians, incl. Sunnis, are Mediterraneans/S. Europeans, not Arabs. pic.twitter.com/5SLaFsQ7BS Permalink 11:36 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I used to hold Larry Summers in low respect. Today I hold him in negative respect: he magically gets things backwardhttps://twitter.com/LucasHahn1990/status/816353262320304128   Permalink 10:45 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb He gets it. It’s the mechanism, the process, not the idea.https://twitter.com/Mattrud/status/816353990141243394   Permalink 10:44 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@evil_SDOC Lentement, certains lèvent le voile sur la gde escroquerie qu’a été la couverture médiatique de la guerre en Syriehttp://www.marianne.net/syrie-victime-plus-credibilite-mediatique-100248961.html   Permalink 9:41 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Rothkopf @djrothkopf is a fraud; I said it to his face here on twitter. @PALE_Primate @outsh1ned @MusicityManager @GenFlynn Permalink 8:38 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Next week!https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/816033994508800000   Permalink 8:15 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I feel I do not have soul in the game when 1) cutting corners, 2) reading a classic in a different language than original. Like cheating. Permalink 6:24 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, evidence of Seneca not far. @avisolo pic.twitter.com/FDKd5Z0CIi Permalink 6:17 AM – 3 Jan 2017

@nntaleb IYI Economists as frauds: 1) compare themselves to pilots in complex self-organized system 2) their planes crashedhttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/815939523964243968   Permalink 12:35 PM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Resolution: to go full Lindy for 2017; set 2 shelves. #LindyEffect @OrodruinR pic.twitter.com/gz6xgRSdCA Permalink 10:35 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I use twitter as scratchpad for the Appendix of Skin in the Game @JakeNabel pic.twitter.com/AplAJ6rLve Permalink 8:14 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “L’émulation et la jalousie ne se rencontrent guère que dans les personnes du même art, de même talent et de même condition.” LB @JakeNabel Permalink 8:10 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Shiites, like Christians, have a culture of martyrs; and they have a long, very long memory. Not good for KSAhttps://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/815923696506458112   Permalink 6:21 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb “Econmsts praised Piketty’s “erudition” for citing J. Austen; the equivalent to praising the weighlifting of someone carrying a briefcase” Permalink 6:03 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Expanded the chapter on Dynamic Inequality & Envyhttps://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.70i1k3ari   Permalink 5:52 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Inequality: Envy doesn’t travel geography and social classes pic.twitter.com/IHuX5uD6vc Permalink 5:46 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The notion “no-one is a prophet in his own land” originates in Aristotle’s Rhetoric. (Libanius,Autob.) #inequality pic.twitter.com/WGVbJak94z Permalink 5:26 AM – 2 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The more data people show you, the more suspicious & intellectually vigilant you should be. Added to Ineq. Chapter. pic.twitter.com/Fki4W2BqnU Permalink 3:57 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The proof can be redone graphically. The solution is in corners for the max, and center for min @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/QFmxEUIlMJ Permalink 3:27 PM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Happy 2017 everybody. Hope the new year delivers to you something you deserve but did not dare to wish for. Permalink 9:31 AM – 1 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should be very worried. @trishankkarthik took my class & didn’t mention probability. Nor deadlifts.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/815310426586103808   Permalink 3:36 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Corrected typos & glad it passes the test of terrorism expert @MaxAbrahms pic.twitter.com/zINyihHzVw Permalink 2:17 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb The author of the book is the boxer, high-flying adventurer, entrepreneur and mathematician @JustinWolfers @Caseyag1 Permalink 2:08 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Permalink 1:40 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb New Year Resolutions are in my “Commencement Address, AUB, 2016”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.17sca2q22   Permalink 1:03 PM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ch 8 of Skin in the Game, or How to put the head of a horse in your enemy’s bed. Waiting for @MaxAbrahms to comment pic.twitter.com/I8vpZGXXHJ Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Redo everything from the ground up yourself. Never use computerized metrics unless you’ve derived them @sleuthstock Permalink 8:05 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 7) Year end 2016: my use of “boy” as over sign of disrespect (such as “Pinker boy”) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20boy&src=typd   Permalink 6:57 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 6) Year end 2016: 2017 Resolution 1: Finish Skin in the Game. 2017 Resolution 2: Deadlift 420. 2017 Resolution 3… pic.twitter.com/cmPtWWHmGA Permalink 6:51 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Assuming 50% pr, (½)^{10} =1/1024 so decimal adj @CommonSense190 @ChateauEmissary Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 5) Year end 2016: My most read piece, Intellectual Yet Idiot, added PPS https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.2g4c64l2f   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK”>  pic.twitter.com/3Q4CWogdKK Permalink 6:11 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Klueless: The N is not “small”. The probability of randomly getting 10 heads on 10 flips is Permalink 5:28 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Like this @moniker42 Which is a reason to block all journos from your twitter feed. pic.twitter.com/LNaK1QO9fo Permalink 5:13 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This idiot journo doesn’t realize that ALMOST ALL scientific papers are used with same sample size & higher pval.https://twitter.com/moniker42/status/815181276558852097   Permalink 5:12 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@J_Mareeswaran @nntaleb Obama used a law devised to fight Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to fund Al-Qaeda in Syria. Now explain that. Permalink 2:22 AM – 31 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Beautiful recitation in the language of Christhttps://twitter.com/SYRIAC_MARONITE/status/814994491778236416   Permalink 5:14 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Two packages this PM pic.twitter.com/mIQUlH7xCr Permalink 2:51 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Near East (Mediterranean) and Middle East are different areas historically, ethnically, and culturally. @MattheWrite @EHSANI22 Permalink 2:20 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hugh Kennedy has it completely wrong.The Arab penetration and Islamization of Syria were v. v. slow outside Damascushttps://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/814955122535124998   Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb That was my reaction to dialogue: – Why did Barack Hussain Obama betray the American public by financing AlQaeda? – Things are “complicated” Permalink 12:03 PM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb We asked Pinker Boy to back up his data & provide technical answers; his reply was *evasive* Englishmajor BS. pic.twitter.com/tkHaarn8DL Permalink 11:58 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Things are never complicated if one has principles. Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@GoldOverFiat “Only the autodidacts are free.” -@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/WvIBEFC50h Permalink 10:37 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 4) Year end 2016: Remember that Bloomberg is #FakeNews as @BV has not retracted & @Noahpinion… http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 9:50 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3) Year end 2016 An antology of my squid ink episodes https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20squid%20OR%20ink&src=typd   Permalink 7:53 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: An antology of my twitter arguments as they often include “kapish”, “nonkapish” or “Mr.” https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20kapish%20OR%20nonkapish%20OR%20Mr.&src=typd   Permalink 7:52 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Year end 2016: A compilation of my philology tweets (Aramaic/Syriac, etc.) https://twitter.com/search?q=nntaleb%20syriac%20OR%20aramaic%20OR%20levantine&src=typd   Permalink 5:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Is computerized aid permissible? Used minimization under constraint @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/TZrQf7dwtY Permalink 5:24 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Hillary/Trump & Weightlifting;results are more significant (according to same norms) than 99% of published “science” pic.twitter.com/5qoWE7RTIa Permalink 3:38 AM – 30 Dec 2016

@nntaleb 3-4 C later it was part of Babylon (Iraq), 5C later if was part of Persia (Iran), 2 C later it was part of …https://twitter.com/exjon/status/813923965299101696   Permalink 7:02 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb There is nothing empirical nor rigorous in use of psychoBS s.a. “Hedgehog/fox” outside of hunting. Kapish? @JackMcMackin Permalink 2:30 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb This is almost right. Can do manually with some finessing. @carlfischer101 pic.twitter.com/NeLa2CQNfq Permalink 1:03 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Been getting that kind of BS since FBR “be nice to econs/bankers/journos” Wd being “nice” to the mafia change it?https://twitter.com/JackMcMackin/status/814570913697927168   Permalink 12:51 PM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb At gym: Asked weightlifters in basement if they voted Trump. 9 voted Trump, 1 Johnson. Upstairs, bourgeois floor (machines), 10/10 Hillary. Permalink 11:56 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I don’t like substance. I leave it to CNN. @FridaGhitis @BibekKafle12 Permalink 11:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I have discussed in The Black Swan 2nd ed. how Friedman & similar BS vendors got complexity backward. @BibekKafle12 @FridaGhitis Permalink 11:02 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Full body effort (sq/DL) at your 5 Max Rep (ALL muscles/bones challenged) switch gear via hormones or other. It’s informational. @gzibordi Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb While Friedman’s harmful ignorance isn’t curable, lack of jaw/neck definition can be slightly reduced by deadlifts.https://twitter.com/Slate/status/813812798660743168   Permalink 10:51 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Voila what our fearless group suspected is now getting confirmed!https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/814532154680082432   Permalink 10:29 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Was in Akkadian In Latin/Greek near but diff homonyms ≠ meaning In Semitic/Engl near homonyms often synonyms. @DeadLiftCapital @elie2222 Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Akkadian: darasu=> to pound. Syriac: both samekh Aramaic: samekh for one,shin other Arabic: both shin @elie2222 pic.twitter.com/nFmcHt8IOF Permalink 10:08 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Ammianus on the Syrian Rebels/ISIS: “People to have neither as friends nor as enemies”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/814457120628371457   Permalink 7:33 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Syrian author Ammianus Marcellinus describes the tribes of (now) East Syria: borders is along today’s Syrian war. pic.twitter.com/1pmIIC4Zey Permalink 5:04 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Convexity effects of rereading pic.twitter.com/t7QT5HIGgW Permalink 4:45 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nfergus More festive joy from the uncrowned king of Twitter: “Inequality and Skin in the Game” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.bdw494r5a   Permalink 12:18 AM – 29 Dec 2016

@nntaleb OK, solved (after some tinkering) @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/UhFkhUNSFk Permalink 5:39 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@joshfattore Markov Chains Explained Visually – This will help with Taleb’s piece. http://setosa.io/ev/markov-chains/   via @vicapow @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813854886148374529   Permalink 4:40 PM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I challenge Gary Kasparov @Kasparov63 to spend a few days, even minutes, with the rebels. Otherwise he shd learn to keep his mouth shut.https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/813909779148111875   Permalink 8:53 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Wealth is not zero sum, inequality is by definition. @thoreau_devotee Permalink 6:45 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb I added to the Inequality piece https://medium.com/@nntaleb/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.vhggmfpff   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji”>  pic.twitter.com/qVELokYYji Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2016

@nntaleb Obama allowed bankers to have the LARGEST bonus pool in history, in 2010. Put interest rates at 0 for them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/813938371550703616   Permalink 5:21 AM – 28 Dec 2016

Folta, GMOs, Friedman, Charlatans | Twitter

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Shameful. Let us clean up science. This is not about smalltimer Folta but about corporate control of science. https://t.co/dhhF4jhjXU

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 5, 2015

FAA should manage GMOs https://t.co/pZDZI175T8

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 4, 2015

GMOs Facts and Fiction: a cheat sheet (Revised). (Added the “consensus” needed for plane safety.) pic.twitter.com/09SmfaK3ck

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 5, 2015

OK, OK, after 10 years, I take Tom Friedman out of the dog house. https://t.co/Vu3QJvtQND

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 4, 2015

No, I don’t *talk* about refugees. Why? Because I am housing 6 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. #Skininthegame.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 3, 2015

A Wonderfully Simple Heuristic to Recognize Charlatans | Farnam Street https://t.co/c3cKhrqQsv via @farnamstreet

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 3, 2015

Nassim Taleb: Don’t Listen to Geithner or Krugman – Nicole Allan – Business – The Atlantic

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Taleb took issue with Krugman’s support of deficit spending. “This transformation of private debt, with all the moral hazard it entails, into public debt is, number one, from a risk standpoint, bad,” he said. “And from an ethical standpoint, I find it immoral. The grandchildren should not bear the debts of the grandparents.”

Taleb called Friedman’s book The World is Flat “very bad for society,” arguing that it did not adequately assess risk. 

One person who did see the crash coming? Nassim Taleb. “In 2008, when the crisis happened, a lot of heads of state were interested in my message,” Taleb said. “Including David Cameron.”

Asked where the economy would be in 25 years, Taleb gave the vague response that “everything fragile will break.” Oh, and that the Fed won’t exist anymore. It will be replaced by something “I think more organic and that makes more sense.”