Tag Archives: economists

Economists, Paris, Moscow, Deadlifting, Tetlock, Ghosn, Tesla, Dubai/UAE, Optionsellers, Regulators, Khashoggi | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “you should study risk taking, not risk management”

@naniiyer @nntaleb Research is catching up to what you have always said https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/well/move/even-a-little-weight-training-may-cut-the-risk-of-heart-attack-and-stroke.html?smid=fb-nytimes Permalink 3:20 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Rory lexktchring. Employees try to minimize blame. #skininthegame Note the socks. pic.twitter.com/yHtCSs9lOe Permalink 1:59 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can raise the lettrine but not done in ancient Mss. pic.twitter.com/w8HkMKuU4S Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #TariffMan @POTUS @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/MGDyg5wKUo Permalink 11:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The point is that economists and psychologists, just like astrologers and fortune tellers shd NEVER be pit in the same category as real scientists and thinkers. Gabish? https://twitter.com/rafael_060_/status/1070355057554714625 Permalink 8:36 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Colors are Lindy. In the musée de Cluny. pic.twitter.com/CoSOi7MFJb Permalink 8:30 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Sveriges riksbank officially denies appointing the “Nobel” in economics, deflecting the “IYI” accusation, shifting the blame to (the economists in) the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. But his magesty told me personally it was “not a Nobel, but a Swedish Riksbank prize” pic.twitter.com/LSD8i3roaX Permalink 7:47 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if the Lettrine format at the beginning of chapters works for the new book. pic.twitter.com/62pTH5wfv2 Permalink 6:44 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lindy https://twitter.com/JoshHochschild/status/1070016645769375744 Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@JulianKirby No #pseudos here..straight talking from @nntaleb to a packed house at #RiskMinds this morning..#skininthegame pic.twitter.com/PvOBNX5QzQ Permalink 12:27 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@ErikSchatzker Question for @black_swan_man: Is Tariff Man friend or foe? cc @nntaleb Permalink 11:24 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@JoshHochschild Example from Cajetan’s commentary on St. Thomas’s Summa Theologiae. pic.twitter.com/7H85uoLT7e Permalink 10:07 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I found the drift in meaning: “covetous” in Hebrew means “praiseworthy” in other Semitic languages. Permalink 10:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Philological Mystery du Jour: The root 7MD for לא תחמוד in the 10 Cmdmts doesn’t seem to match the meaning of the Arabic (حمد, with names like 7amid, M7mud, etc). And in Syriac texts the 10th C is ܠܐ ܬܪܓ Are they the same root? Thanks for the help. @Jonassibony @PhDniX Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The tradition of presenting a cental text surrounded by commentary is not limited to (post Rashi) Talmudic. Below + Erasmus, ~ 1515 (In Praise of Folly) + Talmud, 1482, Guadalajara, + Eramus, @BellesLettresEd, 2018 bilingual edition Figured out how to do it in LaTeX. #Lindy pic.twitter.com/obyOCOaZrl Permalink 8:56 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ DO ML METHODS AND EXPLANATORY VARIABLES IMPROVE FORECASTING ACCURACY ABOVE THAT OF PURE TIME SERIES MODELS? THE EVIDENCE IS NOT CLEAR! Permalink 7:46 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Paris is quiet this morning. The side effect of the riots: hotel employees are very, very humble. Permalink 1:42 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/JH1PlURgrc Permalink 1:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Moscow bookstore https://twitter.com/khazbi_budunov/status/1069473028856311813 Permalink 12:09 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@thomasjbevan1 ‘He is assessed by other professors, not readers. Zero skin in the game.’ I’m sure @nntaleb would agree. Academia seems to be largely a job scheme from what I can tell. Digging holes to fill them back up again https://twitter.com/meditative_man/status/1067607889529860096 Permalink 7:12 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@GareBearTheFair I swear to God @nntaleb is a Bible translator for secularists, and nobody knows it Permalink 5:23 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A Math problem with tricks. pic.twitter.com/Y7LHUPE4Vg Permalink 3:07 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Members of Congress and other rent seekers should NOT have a taxpayer subsidized/sponsored/arranged health plan. They should get one on their own. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/ocasio2018/status/1069007012044918785 Permalink 1:34 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@paulportesi @nntaleb. Taking Nassim’s idea of buildings are designed by architects to impress other architects. Calculus book writtern by math teachers are meant to impress committees or orther math teachers; not for students or practitioners. https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1069321585591492610 Permalink 12:42 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@MKM_Abdul My takeaway from The Incerto by @nntaleb is that most biases are optical illusions that appear when human behavior is viewed from a risk perspective and completely disappear when viewed from a ruin perspective. https://twitter.com/doctorxr/status/1065327150834819073 Permalink 2:46 AM – 2 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from cloudy #Beirut By @nadimbouhabib #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/AD8l4D6gGt Permalink 11:32 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Make sure you don’t compromise your ethics like @paul_salem for oil $$$, because some a***hole like me will never leave you alone for the rest of your life (again, Minority Rule). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1051952580195221504 Permalink 10:49 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@sangai_ To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things (say risk your life or career or reputation for a just cause,or live up to your word,etc) N N Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 9:29 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Something worth discussing: you can’t measure @salilstatistics the role of the x% by using standard estimators; rather from powerlaw tails. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.1791.pdf https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1069052765870178305 Permalink 9:26 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Deadlifting is the best training for flipping cars. Just make sure you 1) prevent back injury w/the valsava maneuver, 2) use gloves to get a better grip of the side of the car,3) after deadlifting the car quicky change hand position for an explosive push,4) synchronize w/friends. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1068976373870424065 Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Just to make sure you know the @MiddleEastInst is a lobbying firm for the UAE with a mission of regime change/Salafi support/promote war in Yemen. But it is not classified as a lobby firm, but disguized as a “research” firm. Shd be classified as lobbyist https://theintercept.com/2017/08/09/gulf-government-gave-secret-20-million-gift-to-d-c-think-tank/ Permalink 10:21 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Social science means inventing a certain brand of human we can understand.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:55 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb These are false claims. Chips were traditionally fried in beef tallow, duck fat, and/or olive oil. Not in SEED oil that we now know is inflammatory. Not Lindy. @Mangan150 has been producing ample evidence that seed oil marketed as “healthy” is not healthy. pic.twitter.com/RYbXf37e9t Permalink 9:52 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Better to own up to who you tend to envy. Umberto Eco, a man of yuuge erudition. His library, Milan. pic.twitter.com/rVT1sLzja1 Permalink 9:32 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@History_Twerp I often wonder how Westerners and Levantines alike feel when it’s mentioned that Beirut was once a bastion of Greek learning and Roman law. I never get an answer. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mulukhiyyé, kebbé, & french fries in olive oil with visiting ⁦@HsenAndil⁩ and ⁦@Decafquest⁩ in Northern Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/tGSC47KnPq Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb It is much harder to conceal one’s envy than to detect that of others. Permalink 2:46 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony What #IYI’s fail to understand is the more ya nerdify simple tings the more normal people tune ya out… Permalink 9:14 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #tesla #blackswanmobile pic.twitter.com/HV96bwUtzv Permalink 8:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Lecture on spurious correlation/hacking https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=8s Permalink 1:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Department of using Statistics to BS: or how @paulkrugman promotes Fooled by Randomness. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1068108794838831106 Permalink 1:23 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at M4 (thread) explains why such statements by @PTetlock (and his work) on forecasting are total BS and how they worsen with fat tailedness. pic.twitter.com/F7SrwXYc4w Permalink 8:32 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Except for that hitch they were great forecasters https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1068284498872336384 Permalink 8:30 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@brianalmon The classic intellectual-yet-idiot (as @nntaleb calls them). Physicists can tell you exactly where Mars will be on a particular day a hundred years from now, but “climate scientists” have been making inaccurate predictions for decades. https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/1067986658899877888 Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@beaves_dad Wait a minute! I thought the Left were the peacemakers and the Right were the warmongerers. This doesn’t make sense. Chuck Schumer should be protesting, not Rand Paul. Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@RandPaul ICYMI: Yesterday I joined @CNN to discuss Saudi Arabia and the war in Yemen. Yesterday was a big day. The Senate woke up. The Senate said we aren’t going to keep turning a blind eye to Saudi Arabia abuses or their war in Yemen. pic.twitter.com/Tf6WkdzzYl Permalink 6:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Was asked if the INCERTO was Lindy. Fooled by Randomness, oldest of the INCERTO, is ~19 y old, & steady. This is US weekly sales (excludes UK, foreign). Same pattern in UK, Italy, Russia, etc. Younger books show same pattern. Almost all bestsellers show exponential decline. pic.twitter.com/euonj51LRb Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that stupid people (the IYI, Intellectuals Yet Idiots) are much, much more dangerous to mankind than evil people. Thanks @enzolamberti for the beautiful pamphlet by Carlo Cipolla. pic.twitter.com/75ci7l5PTv Permalink 2:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So, correction: original post shd be .01 of the people not .01% of the pple, as corrected in the 2nd tutorial. Permalink 2:20 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb What the data w @Drcirillo might be showing is vastly worse than expected: people may have a constant level of belligerence, but more and more destructive weapons. WW1 and WW2 are not outliers. (PS We got more analyses from recent data). https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1068072976455819265 Permalink 2:03 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Cleaned up the Pareto Tutorial pic.twitter.com/hySfuzf5mL Permalink 12:53 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Next time you hear someone in the defense industry claiming to help “defend” you & yours against foreign threats, call their BS. Their business is to kill people for money. They have a vested interest in wars. And they own the Foreign Policy “establishment”. https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/1067800784241401856 Permalink 3:14 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Carlos Ghosn was ambushed like an amateur. https://twitter.com/gsdc1/status/1067907924931039232 Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at the conference Dec 10-11 in NY will be exactly why statements like this one by @PTetlock are total BS. Why forecasting without #SkinintheGame is nonsense, how to be rich you need to be a “bad” forecaster. https://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy @spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1067770888056123393 Permalink 9:50 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Tutorial: Many seem interested in the “Pareto” attributes. Here is a short tutorial. pic.twitter.com/yV3R2xICT4 Permalink 8:01 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@AhsanDeliri When you confuse Newtonian mechanics and chaos theory. It’s easy to conflate problem sets. https://twitter.com/scottlinnen/status/1067156975488827392 Permalink 11:00 PM – 26 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what I am looking is for the JOINT distribution of Low heart rate AND high BP; that is, the RARE combination, not comments on either conditions considered separately. For the two conditions appear to be inversely correlated. Thanks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1064898068720615424 Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man Patron Saint Daniel Bernoulli (1 of 2) #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ergodicity pic.twitter.com/vKR99YdWfz Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Medical Puzzle: Wonder about the clinical significance of: + Low resting heart beart rate <60 + High arterial blood pressure 140/85 Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb People have the illusion that Med = Sea. No, Med = Mountains. Gabish? https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1064881210030206976 Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid Nassim Nicholas Taleb keynote at the M4 Forecasting Conference (New York City December 10/11) will be on “Forecasting and Uncertainty:The Challenge of Fat Tailedness” and after popular requests he will also talk about “Tail risks and why he thinks they are worse now than in 2007” pic.twitter.com/ZqntPkUrWx Permalink 5:41 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- Centralized political systems cannot be truly “democratic” https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1064771248264081408 Permalink 2:39 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yoga schmoga. Try strolling. Or napping. #Lindy https://twitter.com/joerogan/status/1064645547095728131 Permalink 5:41 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Back to Riyadh, hoping the Saudi mob doesn’t get all excited again. Permalink 2:57 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5) Hard to prevent idiots from polluting the discource: It is private enterprise that pulled hundreds of millions, if not a billion, out of poverty, not NGOs, not socialism, not redistributive expropriation, and not his beatitude the @Pontifex. pic.twitter.com/UoWJcURHJR Permalink 3:00 AM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4) We are tired of people who want to “do good” the easy way: by destroying the world while collecting a salary. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/904744034673061888 Permalink 12:44 PM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3) I am afraid that the only places that will be functional in ten years are small states that tasted socialism hence vaccinated (& are small enough for scaling), e.g. Georgia, Croatia, Hungary, Czech R, Slovenia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Baltic states, … Permalink 11:13 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2) Those who cause disasters judge themselves by the intentions not by the outcome. ( Socialists will blow us up.) + “First, do no harm” (primum non nocere): the most robust way for the world to get better. + No virtue without courage… https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0 Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Alas people have done more harm while trying to “do good” and trying to “improve” the world than by trying to pursue their selfish aims while leaving others alone. Silver rule>> Messianism #vianegativa (Orthodox theology) #naiveinterventionism #virtuesignaling https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1063771232129101824 Permalink 9:26 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t realize he must dump the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria; this support will eventually be his Russian campaign. Permalink 1:45 PM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb SHOCKING! These people http://Optionsellers.com who blew up were citing me and The Black Swan to propose … selling TAIL options. Unbelievable. Exactly the opposite of what I write. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/XBDoRs0Jya”> pic.twitter.com/XBDoRs0Jya Permalink 12:41 PM – 17 Nov 2018

Charlatans, Imbeciles, Bankers, Economists, Propagandists, Forum Astana | Twitter

@nntaleb Centrally, justice is about starting with the crime, then finding culprits, rather than starting with the person then finding the crime.https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/879394382285332480 Permalink 10:56 AM – 26 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Mathematical scratchnotes for Skin in the Game. pic.twitter.com/Qi8PiJMLMo Permalink 9:17 AM – 26 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Economists… talking abt charlatans who “sell a service that they do not deliver on”.https://twitter.com/NessimAitKacimi/status/879348478157230081 Permalink 7:57 AM – 26 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The plot thickens: the Northern Levant spoke … sanscrit! @PZallouahttps://twitter.com/ShoaibDaniyal/status/879239364567474176 Permalink 6:53 AM – 26 Jun 2017

@mikeandallie A terrific example to show calculus students from @CutTheKnotMath and @nntaleb : https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/06/25/a-terrific-example-for-calculus-students-from-nassim-taleb-and-alexander-bogomolny/ #math #mathchat Permalink 5:03 AM – 25 Jun 2017

@vinayak Excellent word choice! “Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others” — @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68#—260-557 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/b8T48djA9Y”> pic.twitter.com/b8T48djA9Y Permalink 1:40 AM – 25 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The only compliments I really take seriously as those by such erudites as @ArmandDAngour . Or Fat Tony. Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The only answer I have to your comment is that you an imbecile. Permalink 6:33 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Being tolerant with the intolerant is an act of intolerance.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 6:27 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The enemy of market system isn’t some pot-smoking hirsute communistic hippie, but a suit wearing banker or Federal Reserve employee. Permalink 3:50 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The only argument to not jail bankers is that they would manage to scam other inmates.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/23/jailing-barclays-bankers-financial-crash?CMP=share_btn_tw Permalink 2:52 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Nice to see one’s sentences “rediscovered” episodically.https://twitter.com/EddyElfenbein/status/878518675187302400 Permalink 1:02 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Islamized Armenians, Greeks & Syrians have been stuck with a “Turkish” or “Arab” identity. http://www.repairfuture.net/index.php/en/identity-standpoint-of-turkey/the-turkish-identity-imposed-by-the-nation-state-is-being-questioned via @Repairfuture Permalink 12:59 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb No praise is valid unless its author is as prone to praising as to laying blame. Permalink 2:13 PM – 23 Jun 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Find a limit of sequence http://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/RootedLimit.shtml #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus #limit ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3vjVR07hrQ”> pic.twitter.com/3vjVR07hrQ Permalink 2:58 PM – 22 Jun 2017

@skorusARK . @nntaleb makes a solid case for general purpose technology platforms #blockchain #autonomouscars #EnergyStorage all have lots of use cases pic.twitter.com/63huPkxts2 Permalink 7:34 AM – 22 Jun 2017

@GuruAnaerobic From ‘ANAEROBICS’ – 2018 Calories, Chronicity and sub-lethal starvation – a rationale. Independent of “current research”. (h/t @nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/Nw3MU6nYuc Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Snapshots of recent work on how to asses SP500 tail probabilities. pic.twitter.com/jooVBA7LLt Permalink 3:03 AM – 22 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The mathematics of why absence of correlation != 0 correlationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o Permalink 11:40 PM – 21 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The opposite of reading is not not reading, but reading something like the @NewYorker. Permalink 5:35 AM – 21 Jun 2017

@CutTheKnotMath What is the probability that a random nxn matrix from Z(2) is degenerate? (Moscow State U. math olympiad, 1976) Permalink 10:05 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb “Merime”, impure, comes from “muharram” (<-haram), which makes their hidden religion even more confusing to track. Permalink 3:29 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or something is wrong with this painting by Yevgraf Sorokin, 1853, of Spanish gitanos. Romas are supposed to avoid dogs (impure). pic.twitter.com/ZPrVFT8brg Permalink 3:26 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb J. Ceasar’s thinking: Accumulate details, plan silently, then move fast ag. your enemy Chronic engagement is just training him #Antifragile Permalink 2:55 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb If you are famous, rich, or prominent, avoid people whose friends are all famous, rich, or prominent. Permalink 2:09 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Yet almost all of what’s in theses mounds of “nonfiction” books is BS. However, much of what’s in fiction is pure truth.https://twitter.com/historylvrsclub/status/877257258098360321 Permalink 1:19 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb This is the pin story & coordination in Algazel. The reason I refrnced Graeber is that he mentions it as well. https://www.facebook.com/13012333374/posts/10150327251133375 Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In general, if an “Arab” discovery was made by a Persian (or a Babylonian), one should try to look further East. Permalink 12:45 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb As an example of spontaneous coordination without a central planner. Permalink 12:32 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Example of the pin made by various of pple unaware of one another, used by A.Smith, originally in Algazel Could have originated further East Permalink 12:28 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Where is @davidgraeber when you need him? Permalink 12:21 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb When ignorant pple dabble in history… Idea of division of labor/invisible hand (A.Smith’s pin) was by a Persian, Algazel,~300 y before IK.https://twitter.com/davidjshipley/status/876890647982166022 Permalink 12:19 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb And Templeton’s Money will be used, not to research, but to finance Henry I. Miller & others smearing @garyruskin & scientists like Seralinihttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/876937088771530755 Permalink 11:56 PM – 19 Jun 2017

@nntaleb You die, leave money for charity, as John Templeton did.Later, an IYI schmuck who runs the foundation gives YOUR money to GMO propagandistshttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/876935203805057024 Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Jun 2017

@nntaleb From memory 1st who introduces the technology isn’t safe; often goes bust. Remember Visicalc or Lotus123?, Osborne portable PC? AltaVista?https://twitter.com/tim/status/876566999530315776 Permalink 3:12 PM – 19 Jun 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A write-up for the last week’s probability problem http://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Probability/ARMLC_2016_7.shtml with thanks to @barryvanhoff @gcfr20 @nntaleb @mikeandallie ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Tel0ykarZ9″> pic.twitter.com/Tel0ykarZ9 Permalink 5:09 AM – 19 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Kazakhstan is a country of DOERS; very refreshing to see. Astana has in no time mushroomed out of the Eurasian steppe. Runs like Singapore! Permalink 4:30 PM – 17 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Probability du Jour. Maestro @CutTheKnotMath proposed a great probability problem (conventional convolutions fail because of dependence) pic.twitter.com/Y0A7QNN2fj Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Interesting the same people who report (& get) this don’t get that genetic modification jump complexity classes.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/06/its-like-all-connected-man/530532/?utm_source=twb Permalink 12:50 AM – 17 Jun 2017

@Ishtiaque_IH Nicholas Taleb @Forum_Astana: Trial and error is better than knowledge because it helps us adapt more effectively in an uncertain world. pic.twitter.com/PxGsuXlACw Permalink 10:24 PM – 16 Jun 2017

@garyruskin Did #Monsanto ghostwrite articles for @henryimiller in defense of #glyphosate? http://bit.ly/2nOacg3 http://bit.ly/2d5KErI ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rWdJUeuvo2″> pic.twitter.com/rWdJUeuvo2 Permalink 1:47 PM – 16 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Dinner: Carpaccio of horse meat, & horse fat. The Steppe fighters kept a ketogenic diet which allowed them to fast for days w/o fatigue. Permalink 4:53 PM – 14 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Fermented mare milk, Genghis Khan’s champagne! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumis ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ru3x2208ZI”> pic.twitter.com/ru3x2208ZI Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jun 2017

@non_observable “Virtue is what you do when nobody is looking. The rest is marketing.” -@nntaleb #WednesdayWisdom Permalink 2:52 AM – 14 Jun 2017

@LorenzoWVilla When a distribution realizes that @nntaleb is looking at her, she immediately becomes a power law.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/874784165266284545 Permalink 5:55 PM – 13 Jun 2017

Economists, Fake News, Turkish Lira, IQ, MY Planet, Kapish, Grandmothers, Neo-Stalinism, Umberto Eco’s Library | Twitter

@nntaleb Terms for the heinous s.a. “Nazi”,”racist”,”Hitler” get debased/corrupted over time,similar to the historical debasement of coins/currencies Permalink 12:35 PM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Added paragraph on how in Mediterranean news circulates through gatherings: mostly funerals.https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2#.k66ii4azv Permalink 7:56 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I will from now on call economists “the wrongest profession”, w/attribution. @schmittpaula Permalink 7:44 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb An illustration of how economists market the idea that if you do not believe in their unscientific BS, you are against “knowledge”.https://twitter.com/Aligarciaherrer/status/841091830427074560 Permalink 6:21 AM – 13 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today. From this sign: 1) Georgian script is written left to right. 2) Unlike Semitic scr it has explicit vowels. pic.twitter.com/Xj4z9oBjHE Permalink 1:57 PM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Facts are True, the News is Fake”https://medium.com/p/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2 Permalink 10:48 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb For your book to be read in 20y, make sure content is 1) important for people today, 2) was also important 20 y ago. #Lindy @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The continuous & severe secular devaluation of the Turkish lira (USD-TRL) maps one-to-one to the devaluation of the terms “nazi” & “fascist” Permalink 6:16 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Nothing.https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/status/840797531479015427 Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The argument is that they know they can be harmed by price fixing as they may lose a job/ not get one. @spencerrs34 Permalink 6:22 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) Those affected by a minimum wage are those who earn currently below it and risk losing a job. Markets are Markets. Permalink 3:52 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game: Let the unemployed & those earning below some threshold decide on minimum wage, not some virtue signaling bureaucrat. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 8) One has to unlearn comparing probabilistic situations w/functions using “average” except under mean-field #Antifragile & @yaneerbaryam Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@mikeandallie A math exploration via an interesting integral posted by Nassim Taleb: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/03/11/a-math-exploration-via-an-interesting-integral-from-nassim-taleb/ #math #mathchat cc: @nntaleb Permalink 7:28 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Mr Josh Barro, @jbarro do you have any other expertise than selling BS? Permalink 7:10 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 7) I put “IQ” in “” as I don’t believe that measured IQ includes ability to tinker aggressively, real IQ for me. #GreenLumber #AntiFragile Permalink 7:04 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 6) A more technical discussion from scratchpad: Why the Tail is a different business, the more we go in the tails, the less the mean counts. pic.twitter.com/ufvpkJmEGL Permalink 6:43 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 5) In fact I simplified a bit. Popul. success depends on distribution of tails, Extr. Value Distribution. Discussed in book w/ @DrCirillo Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 4) This threshold phenomena is NECESSARY in the presence of winner-take-all in scientific & economic success (s. a. Pareto 80/20). Permalink 6:21 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 3) I wd fight w/baseball bat for @charlesmurray ‘s right of speech, but this central flaw was missed by his idiotic detractors. #middleburry Permalink 6:18 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) This in short explains why linking IQ to success for populations is total nonsense in the presence of nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/sMeLFdWWlx Permalink 6:16 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) Assuming “IQ” helps success; the performance of a population would depend >>more on the variance than average. (convexity, #Antifragile) Permalink 6:09 AM – 11 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “First, do no harm” is Lindy-compatible (2500 y.o.) @normonics @GuruAnaerobic Permalink 3:20 PM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The libertarian version is to consider harm to the environment as harm against MY planet.http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2988742/apolloearth_a_wake_up_call_in_our_race_against_time.html Permalink 9:00 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK.https://twitter.com/realistgrower/status/840027938162540544 Permalink 8:55 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb For those into integration, a difficult integral.http://math.stackexchange.com/q/2180737/88078?stw=2 Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Electricians, barbers, gardeners, surgeons, tango dancers, are experts. Not economists. How do we know who’s expert?https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.bf46qtuzd Permalink 5:53 AM – 10 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Who is still reading you, I may ask? @NoceraBV Permalink 6:37 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Pseudo-experts (pol “scientists”, econs, journos) are making our disrespect for charlatans look like disrespect for all expert. Stop them.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/839973967624458240 Permalink 6:31 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I will NEVER write for Foreign Affairs again. Imbeciles.https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/839966563209973761 Permalink 2:59 PM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Olive oil, etc. @startupdaemon Permalink 11:20 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Oddity du jour: Constantinople, unlike Rome (& Antioch, Alexandria,& Athens) doesn’t have a Mediterranean climate. Permalink 7:03 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The formal difference between press & propaganda is unconditional & indiscriminate detraction or unconditional & indiscriminate support. Permalink 5:40 AM – 9 Mar 2017

@NewAlbrecht Continuing parade of people seeking to correct @nntaleb’s spelling of capisce (Kapish) is fascinating. Permalink 1:45 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The rule is: Use “BUT” as a logical operator, not to seek protection from consequences of your opinion. Kapish? @learnfromerror Permalink 12:56 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Typical wussiness: “I do not support Trump, but…” “I support Obama, but…” “I don’t always agree w/this *egomaniac* Taleb, but…” Permalink 12:25 PM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 3) In Antifragile, I explain that if the condition is mild, IGNORE doctor (grandmother is to distract). If severe, go to doctor. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:36 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) In medicine & tech domains, there are grounds to ignore the grandmother. In what relates to human nature (psychology), Lindy. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:31 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) There is a bias: grandmothers’ iatrogenics are seen, not those of medicine. I will be making a tableau. @SawsaGa Permalink 6:30 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb So asking your grandmother beats these “scientists” any minute. Or Montaigne. Lindy explained in my link https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.h2ikeddwu https://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/838742797742190592 Permalink 5:39 AM – 6 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Nohttps://twitter.com/GTCost/status/838567117150535682 Permalink 6:12 PM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Anything people say before the “but” 1) doesn’t count, 2) is a sign of weakness & should be avoided in straightforward prose.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/838480429732806656 Permalink 12:12 PM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Pareto on the Intellectual Yet Idiots why they make bad rulers @Maximilian_H1 pic.twitter.com/GkzUxLj2u3 Permalink 8:32 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Added a comment explaining the Salafi danger to the Chapter on Asymmetries w Minorities https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.a0mrs2gq9 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6YTPk6Omqk”> pic.twitter.com/6YTPk6Omqk Permalink 8:03 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “Mis.” stand for “misattributed to”. What did you think it represented? @rsjanabasis Permalink 6:23 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to death your RIGHT to say it”(mis.Voltaire) but if you use violence to repress MY right… Permalink 6:10 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Banko detected the common mistake by IYIs is to think that one cannot write original science in a nonacademic, literary format.https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/838264746222702592 Permalink 4:49 AM – 5 Mar 2017

@nntaleb The double imbecile Yglesias wants to repress @charlesmurray ‘s free speech w/violence then calls him Hitler. Double Imbecile. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/838099996461436930 Permalink 5:18 PM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb They are looking at criminals… who were caught, no?https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/838058140612493312 Permalink 9:09 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) These idiots from CNN didn’t get the point. pic.twitter.com/I1VTaTdK1Y Permalink 6:30 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others”https://medium.com/p/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68 Permalink 6:07 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb There is no charm in becoming the establishment.https://twitter.com/TruthHawkLive/status/837945176605741057 Permalink 4:24 AM – 4 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Neo-Stalinism.https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/837675287445929984 Permalink 7:05 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Representation of the inequality @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/zDzvqiO9g5 Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Different angles: Proof that a picture is worth 1024 equations @CutTheKnotMath @Taitamco pic.twitter.com/UuUw1GAQZc Permalink 1:35 PM – 3 Mar 2017

@nntaleb My visit to Umberto Eco’s library. His library looked like a library, but he didn’t look like an author. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.gy9xyrq0r ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BqJaGP2DI5″> pic.twitter.com/BqJaGP2DI5 Permalink 8:25 AM – 3 Mar 2017

BBC News: Tuesday 14th December With Nassim Taleb

1 Reply

Links to BBC radio interview with NNT. HatTip to Dave Lull.

The intellectual guru Nassim Taleb has published
a collection of philosophical aphorisms.
He explores his favourite theme of the limitations of human knowledge.

NNT BBC Radio 12/14/10

Nassim Taleb: Don’t Listen to Geithner or Krugman – Nicole Allan – Business – The Atlantic

2 Replies

Taleb took issue with Krugman’s support of deficit spending. “This transformation of private debt, with all the moral hazard it entails, into public debt is, number one, from a risk standpoint, bad,” he said. “And from an ethical standpoint, I find it immoral. The grandchildren should not bear the debts of the grandparents.”

Taleb called Friedman’s book The World is Flat “very bad for society,” arguing that it did not adequately assess risk.

One person who did see the crash coming? Nassim Taleb. “In 2008, when the crisis happened, a lot of heads of state were interested in my message,” Taleb said. “Including David Cameron.”

Asked where the economy would be in 25 years, Taleb gave the vague response that “everything fragile will break.” Oh, and that the Fed won’t exist anymore. It will be replaced by something “I think more organic and that makes more sense.”