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Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications


@nntaleb Fat Tony lives in NJ; but he self defines as “from Brooklyn”. “It’s that bridge, you know”. Permalink 10:14 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Comments on New Jersey in The Incerto… one of many pic.twitter.com/0TeSh0F2vh Permalink 9:18 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I wonder what is scaring them the most: the virus or being forced to stay in New Jersey. https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1225770175380803584   Permalink 7:32 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Also there is a focus on AI, machine learning, and data science, away from traditional idiotic business school finance. Permalink 7:01 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Our NYU Tandon School of Engineering Fin program is becoming increasingly successful, largely because of the link to the real world. Both Peter Carr & yours truly come from practice, and have developed our research WHILE in practice. @nyutandon @NYUFRE https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/nyu-tandon-financial-engineering-program-ranked-among-best   Permalink 6:52 AM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Speculative Mediterranean Philology DuJour: Question. Moustaki/Mustacchi/Μουστακί/ς Μουστάκας does not seem to have a real Greek origin. Could it come from the Semitic مستقي\ مشطقّي؟\مصطقّي ? Note the Italian c+ch = قّ Permalink 12:14 PM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb For instance: Lebanese deposits #Lebanon https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1225491481500225538   Permalink 10:50 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Para mi es claro que para entender la salud humana de forma integral, así como para prevenir y hacer frente a epidemias como la actual, necesitamos un enfoque complejo @redcompleja que permita por ejemplo valorar estos riesgos ver la nota de @normonics, @yaneerbaryam y @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/c0ZuERfm4G Permalink 10:49 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “In the medical and social domains, treatment should never be equivalent to silencing symptoms.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:24 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Salibi was a BS vendor: into historical fabrication, relied upon by Arab fascists to destroy #Localism & Med Cosmopolitanism. Never ever cite Salibi for anything. For instance, his story of the Yemen exodus (Marib dam) was debunked by population genetics (@PZalloua). https://twitter.com/ZiryabJ/status/1225419602315878400   Permalink 6:15 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Will give a remote lecture in @spyrosmakrid’s class. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1224353486793596929   Permalink 6:08 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Another distinguishing feature: Photius was a lay person and a yuuge erudite. There are antecedents allowing lay people to become patriarchs of Constantinople, the highest calling for any orthodox, in case someone is interested. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1225406512279031808   Permalink 5:32 AM – 6 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PRINCIPIA https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1225090288546406400   Permalink 7:30 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Total victims (reported) are now ~20,000. When we did these piece, the number was about 1,000. Multiplicative processes. Einstein has a saying (attributed to him) about the force of compound interest. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 7:23 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb An MD may know a lot of clinical stuff (though not always) but cannot comprehend multiplicative processes. So they should shut the f**k up when it comes to these risks. Called “carpenter fallacy” w/ the GMO problem: to understand risks of roulette, know probability not carpentry. https://twitter.com/Aemiliannus/status/1225110386560655360   Permalink 12:04 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Friends, my book is here. Easier to read than ArXiv. You can also add comments. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 12:04 PM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Solved! Ignore, take a walk, come back and the solution comes out. pic.twitter.com/RwSSfpExHF Permalink 11:16 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@AllAboutAlpha “Statistician/philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb critiques “behavioral” economics and finance as he looks at the differences between “binary forecasts” and “real world payoffs,” in a recent paper for the International Journal of Forecasting.” https://bit.ly/313J0Ox   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BNkYpkscYo”>  pic.twitter.com/BNkYpkscYo Permalink 9:50 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Actually… proof is TK pic.twitter.com/Sl1pKilQyj Permalink 9:45 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@nntaleb My point on homeopathy is that it distracts the patient away from iatrogenics when the disease is within 1 sigma. https://twitter.com/david_perell/status/1225100974676639744   Permalink 9:44 AM – 5 Feb 2020

@GCsVentures Meanwhile, I’m learning that Sweden (where I reside & pay taxes) is imposing zero quarantine on people coming from China at the moment. @Folkhalsomynd please don’t blindly follow the @WHO. Enforce quarantines and/or stop influx from China now. Please see https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 9:40 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Pages 8-11 Friends, looking for typos/errors. Thanks again pic.twitter.com/IkhwN5OLlr Permalink 9:38 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@statsmartin Yes, @researchersone publishes books! Check out @nntaleb’s latest book “Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 7:32 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Pages 4-7 pic.twitter.com/j2ox078mjG Permalink 6:36 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Reposting (corrected) pages 1-3 (single page, easier to read) pic.twitter.com/uqYxMqN1CL Permalink 6:25 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Friends, the draft of the transcription of a lecture I gave at the Leopoldina academy on how RISK & PARANOIA are misunderstood by psychologists & BS vendors. Part 1, for comments pic.twitter.com/MTmvuVA5Jn Permalink 6:20 AM – 3 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The ting about these puzzles is that you always think it is a 15 min morning exercise, but they have a totally stochastic stopping time. This, unexpectedly, took houuuuuuuuuuuuuurs! Permalink 6:26 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb This s***t cost me half my Sunday! Tough, tough! pic.twitter.com/eSbgKq8urF Permalink 6:07 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Expect more BS like this one by @johnpilger https://twitter.com/johnpilger/status/1224119492126527488   Permalink 5:12 PM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The Black Swan (2007) discusses the risks of a virus spreading owing to the increased connectivity in the modern environment. Connectivity increases fattailedness. We were never as connected as we were 10 days ago. pic.twitter.com/XzQNgJGAca Permalink 7:09 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@JamesMarsh79 I remember when @nntaleb @financequant debated the risks of an outbreak at #rwri, nassim mentioned that hospitable might not even be open because staff wouldn’t show up. Wise https://twitter.com/wsj/status/1223984447550361600   Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sunday morning workout. pic.twitter.com/WUC5yPiAj6 Permalink 6:19 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The type of fake empiricism we @yaneerbaryam and @normonics are trying to correct. Note it is almost ALWAYS a journo or a psychologist (@qhardy) making such irresponsible claim. Lightning strikes are not multiplicative, hence thin-tailed. https://twitter.com/qhardy/status/1223940970871316480   Permalink 6:18 AM – 2 Feb 2020

@yannispetro Similar to drinking a drop of tap water every time you visit India @nntaleb @SavvasSalou @JennyKechagia https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/1223726591169253376   Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR https://twitter.com/Marcellenassif/status/1223725662185447425   Permalink 1:57 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “It is much harder to become independent if you are wealthy than to become wealthy if you are independent.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 12:06 PM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Right to left… Or, better, random order https://twitter.com/Zrimat_/status/1223651362354925568   Permalink 9:45 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A trivial computation: If IQ mapped to intelligence rather than unintelligence (i.e. <70), where are the 800,000 geniuses? Trivial. pic.twitter.com/4gO1MNV1JY Permalink 8:19 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dear Atlantans, this friend of mine is in Atlanta and looking for a Calabese barber or possibly any Mediterranean barber shop a la old country style (where barbers have a heavy accent). Can anyone help? pic.twitter.com/7jK8gmiDxg Permalink 7:17 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@yvespatte Il y a quelques jours, pendant que des éditorialistes nous disaient qu’il n’y avait pas à s’inquiéter du coronavirus, des chercheurs spécialisés en risk management et en système complexe, @normonics, Yaneer Bar-Yam et @nntaleb, publiaient ce papier : https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/h9vfmGyi3c”>  pic.twitter.com/h9vfmGyi3c Permalink 5:45 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@LaikiEksixroni1 @nntaleb lets bring Lebanon to the where it belongs https://twitter.com/EastMedMonitor/status/1223555043246444545   Permalink 2:39 AM – 1 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, drummers in rythms, and idiots in labels. Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 5:14 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) I feel safe traveling in the US over the next month. Permalink 3:20 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb GREAT NEWS. We are told that our article helped move the needle as the US government has taken the rational precautionary measures we advocated. @normonics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 2:39 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Some background: the alt-right, Charles Murray et al, Nordic supremacists & eugenists, are bothered by my IQ article. Murray is circulating “debunkings” by some bloggist. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:32 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@mikeandallie (1/3) I’ve learned an enormous amount from @nntaleb in the last 4 or 5 years about what it means to pursue math away from academia. It isn’t simply a matter of depth of knowledge, though, it is his fearlessness with doing math in public and his ability to explain deep +. pic.twitter.com/BWm5rkXhXI Permalink 2:27 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A reminder of Charles Murray as a fake scholar. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640   Permalink 2:00 PM – 31 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Something that grows at a rate of >10% a day is a problem (here potentially 25%). We need to constrain its growth. Every point counts! 6-9 months would be a disaster. https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1223026763896434694?s=20   Permalink 3:40 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Hurricanes are not multiplicative. Some viruses are. Permalink 3:37 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Apparently the person holding up the precautionary measures to constrain mobility is a son of Amioun: Health Secretary Alex Azar @SecAzar who, unlike another son of Amioun*, doesn’t get precautionary principles in a complex interactive system. *Amioun is our village of origin https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 2:46 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@chasechandler This is the problem with term “evidence based.” Almost always used with great ignorance of emergence and downside asymmetry. Permalink 12:31 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@normonics WORST possible recommendation. This is why we can’t subject ourselves to global scale policy. This is an outrageous statement #coronavirus https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1222969858574430217   Permalink 12:05 PM – 30 Jan 2020

@johncarlosbaez Thanks, Eric. Alas, I have a kind of allergy to shows where bigshots get interviewed about stuff. Permalink 11:47 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@hugowiz «If we don’t understand something and it has a systemic effect, just avoid it.» Skin in the game @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/waIiZL9OdO Permalink 11:39 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Continued in Lebanon: some people are still classified as Rum. https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1222854495622877184   Permalink 11:22 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@BotTradingQuote We have this culture of financialization. People think they need to make money with savings rather with their business. So you end up with dentists who are more traders than dentists. A dentist should drill teeth and use whatever he does in the market for entertainment-@nntaleb Permalink 6:30 AM – 30 Jan 2020

@paulportesi No. @nntaleb has discussed many of tactics on this particular issue. He “trades” in the world markets. I defer to him. Time spent on revenge is never wasted. NNT Revenge is a moral obligation. NNT Revenge isn’t just revenge. It’s a deterrent.” – NNT https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972887563164946432?s=19   https://twitter.com/royer_geoffrey/status/1222664501876678656   Permalink 3:44 PM – 29 Jan 2020

@animangia Now @nntaleb is going to have a Capisch emoji https://twitter.com/emojipedia/status/1222635333491286019   Permalink 3:28 PM – 29 Jan 2020

@yaneerbaryam Community action for Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic response pic.twitter.com/2xyLdMREju Permalink 11:26 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb He knows something we don’t know. “Boeing CEO David Calhoun: I don’t expect lasting Coronavirus impact” https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/01/29/boeing-ceo-david-calhoun-i-dont-expect-lasting-coronavirus-impact.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter   Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The Trump Peace Plan is not about peace and not a plan; it is, simply, punitive capitulation terms a la Versailles. It also ignores Palestinian refugees in Lebanon & elsewhere. Permalink 4:25 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb November 4-5 2020 https://twitter.com/narekk/status/1222399764290920450   Permalink 3:23 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Final Version of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails finally on ArXiv. Hard copy out soon. https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.10488   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2gvRKLERkr”>  pic.twitter.com/2gvRKLERkr Permalink 3:15 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “You need to realize that the only thing a career academic can really teach you is how to be a career academic.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #books Permalink 2:45 AM – 29 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “If you reject unfounded blame, you must also reject unjustified praise.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 5:40 PM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Karl Sharro @KarlreMarks plagiarizing again? pic.twitter.com/7bm9NjRgM4 Permalink 11:43 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntalebbot “The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@GCsVentures Worry about journalists, politicians (and doctors!) not understanding the necessary precautionary principle. Dangerous idiots, literally playing with your lives. Read @nntaleb, @normonics and @yaneerbaryam. https://academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note   https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedScience/status/1222215240756158466   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JVO6bfbrNK”>  pic.twitter.com/JVO6bfbrNK Permalink 10:28 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The cental rule in life is that it is much, much better to panic early than late. Permalink 8:45 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@nntaleb So an Egyptian (Hamitic) writes to a Hittite (Indo-European) in a Semitic Language (Accadian) or am I mistaken? cc:@Safaitic https://twitter.com/mynemosyne54/status/1221892174146670592   Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jan 2020

@normonics Dean of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong gets it. – we must apply the precautionary principle – we don’t predict, we prepare – we must stop it at the scale of macroscopic mobility patterns @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam an ally https://twitter.com/athemtarwp/status/1221925524647247872   Permalink 8:40 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@maiamajumder I’ve seen a few tweets recently about how R_0 is the mean of a distribution (via @nntaleb) and how its dispersion is important to understand (via @DFisman & @C_Althaus). This is very true (for #nCoV2019 & otherwise), and it’s why I posted this graphic last week. [THREAD] 1/x https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1220802808976486406   Permalink 12:42 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb One possible approach pic.twitter.com/6LHi3RW7tx Permalink 12:29 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Exercise du Jour (Note: Correct Quote is “Easier to buy and sell than fry an egg”.) pic.twitter.com/N1PCEp6QSf Permalink 12:00 PM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb FORT LAUDERDALE AIRPORT INFORMATION BOOTH Me: “are there comfortable trains from here to Miami?” Answer (by Information official): “Why don’t you use Google?” Me: “Aren’t you an information desk?” Answer: “Aren’t you able to use Google?” Permalink 11:35 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@JohnCleese The Master and his Emissary by Iain McGilchrist ( for the second time ) and Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb There wasn’t much space for colouring, but I must admit they both coloured my thinking May I recommend ” An Idiots’s Guide to Punctuation ” ? https://twitter.com/DanoFretman/status/1221868424529231872   Permalink 11:22 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb No worries, it is added to the list https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm   Nigel Warburton, a despicable man, does not have the ethics to remove it. Permalink 10:15 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@rperezmarco For sure all the mediterraneans we have more in common than any culture from the inland, and a main characteristic is cosmopolitanism. Makes more sense to me a Mediterranean Union than EU, although I think we are too anarchists for that Permalink 8:01 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:37 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) Funny translation of his song “Le Meteque”, “Juif errant, et pâtre grec ” sung in Hebrew by Yossi Banai. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBK3t_AZceQ   Permalink 5:10 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) He was called “Monsieur 1 volt” (contrast w/Becaud’s 100,000 volts”) because of his sterotypical Mediterranean nonchalance. But he was productive without showing it, by spezzatura. Like all cosmopolitan Meds he was a pacifist. He loved Beirut & would have lived there except.. Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) He started by writing poetry in French. Like all Trans-Meds, he self identified as Greek though did not speak the language naturally. The Romaniotes are a very small true Greek community: even more Meds than Greco-Phoenicians & Greco-Syrians. pic.twitter.com/2fwNkGUcoX Permalink 5:01 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb COSMOPOLITAN MEDITERRANEISM 1) The modern person who represents modern trans-nation-state Mediterraneism is Georges Moustaki. He was Alexandrian, from a Greek-Jewish Romaniote family (on that, next) (father’s name Nessim), spoke Italian at home, French educated; ended in Paris. pic.twitter.com/Np0n4q6Nq3 Permalink 4:58 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The number of people infected is a random variable with huge dispersion; hard to measure and subjected to downward biases in measurement. Permalink 4:46 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Why R_0 should NEVER be discussed by journos. It is a distributional concept, not a metric like the height of a child! pic.twitter.com/x3FHKpICvD Permalink 4:33 AM – 27 Jan 2020

@nntaleb An explanation of why K_0 is biased big time; miscomputed via moment estimators. pic.twitter.com/jwttJKSStn Permalink 3:30 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Another ignorant journalist dealing with risk matters. Irresponsible. https://twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220969972215631872?s=21   https://twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220969972215631872   Permalink 12:31 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb As predicted https://twitter.com/ncov19/status/1221507196070002689?s=21   https://twitter.com/ncov19/status/1221507196070002689   Permalink 12:18 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb No. It ia irresponsible and immoral to pay the Eurobond. #Lebanon https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1221521937651982336   Permalink 12:00 PM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness 101: did they factor in that healthy and energetic people are more likely to go to museums? https://nyti.ms/2tDdRoo   Permalink 10:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HOW TO REACT TO PANDEMICS can be dowloaded belo @normonics, @yaneerbaryam #ChinaCoronaVirus #China https://academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WH79rULG9d”>  pic.twitter.com/WH79rULG9d Permalink 9:33 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@Tejlgaard I live 500km from Wuhan. Your analysis is not just correct; I used your principles from the Incerto to stock up in time on nonperishable food for 3 months. I did so before everybody else even thought about it. Now, no non-perishable food remains in most shops. Permalink 8:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb My point of crying wolf during the Ebola episode. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 8:30 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Almost all of psychology texts (on psych of risk) miss the point. https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1221468544082284547?s=20   Permalink 8:27 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher.” Skin in the Game https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1221102799636848640   Permalink 8:20 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 1) The point is that you can be wrong a zillion times; doesn’t matter if all it takes is once to hit extinction. 2) It’s remarkable how pple who learn statistics become dangerously stupid, like this “professor” @AlexColangelo Car accidents are thin-tailed, never multiplicative pic.twitter.com/P3z8qdJHvQ Permalink 8:14 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@AEiddddddd pic.twitter.com/g3u9J970mc Permalink 7:05 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A reminder of the type of arguments that will cause humanity to go extinct. Systematically blocked. pic.twitter.com/6HU00tHCTU Permalink 6:26 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The problem with the China #Coronavirus: Fat Tails and Naive Empiricism a la Cass Sunstein/S Pinker. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/QWVXLtTxVp Permalink 4:32 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The journo is an irresponsible imbecile. My talk in Cyprus: without extreme paranoia, we can’t survive. #ergodicity requires ignoring costs-benefits in the presence of ruin problems. https://nypost.com/2020/01/23/dont-buy-the-media-hype-over-the-new-china-virus/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons   via @nypost Permalink 2:59 AM – 26 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Because, connectivity and tails. WHO are rent seeking idiots. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1221214284379828224   Permalink 3:48 PM – 25 Jan 2020

@yaneerbaryam When we warned on Ebola people said quarantine was impossible. At least in China urban scale quarantine is seen as an essential way to combat pandemics. We need effective policy — and not wait for global catastrophe to teach us. https://necsi.edu/ending-pandemics   @nntaleb Permalink 3:07 PM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Why your body learns disproportionally from tail events. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d   https://twitter.com/hugowiz/status/1221105195427348480   Permalink 11:43 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #ethics Permalink 8:46 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@hugowiz «All you need to learn are the safety skills to move off the floor at your maximum while avoiding injury. Lindy again: weight lifters have known the phenomenology for at least two and a half millennia.» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks pic.twitter.com/dGrDx9f98F Permalink 8:19 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Note: while we know the R_0 of the Flu, we don’t know that of WuFlu. Because it is an average, its small sample properties make it biased downward in measurements. Permalink 7:46 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Sopistry Alert: She is not a public servant. She cannot plunder coffers and or have friends do do. Gebran is a public servant. #BSbustingDuJour https://twitter.com/jamalfayad/status/1220765565398212615   Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Interestingly the only pple who talk about “scientific consensus” (aside from GMO shills like @mark_lynas) are journalists, schoolteachers,& other destroyers of science. Science is a rigorous process against consensus, questioning consensus, & debunking consensus. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1221046559074217984   Permalink 4:34 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “A book is something that can be read ten years after publication. A real book, twenty. Otherwise it is a magazine report with bookbinding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The fellow is correcting Pinker-style naive empiricism & bogus “rationality”/”realism” (of the type peddled by psychologists). For some things paranoia is necessary for survival. The reproductive factor maps to fat-tailedness. Note: the mortality rate shd increase over time. https://twitter.com/DaveHarig/status/1220839482544590849   Permalink 3:24 AM – 25 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is the kind of thing that makes me … https://twitter.com/designboom/status/1220833662272491528   Permalink 3:18 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Much more elegant pic.twitter.com/MkCmkSR8yB Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is easier; doesn’t go through offsetting log of negatives. pic.twitter.com/F02qeLoQjv Permalink 2:16 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The sucker problem is to answer lim=1. pic.twitter.com/y6yKSq8ehp Permalink 2:04 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Friday distraction with a small sucker problem. pic.twitter.com/9as4dANTOW Permalink 1:24 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb My idea of rationality: ergodicity & survival under true distributions. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 12:50 PM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb New Harvard Course: “Pseudo-Empiricism” or “Scientism 101” https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1220784778254770176   Permalink 11:20 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@sergesapiens Mnunchin is a lost cause. At least Greta gets fat tail risk of messing up with nature. ⁦@GretaThunberg⁩ , I recommend you attend #RWRI, read ⁦@nntaleb⁩ and learn about complex systems, via negativa & fractal localism. More effective than WEF! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51219530   Permalink 10:07 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@nntaleb عذر أقبح من ذنب Permalink 2:34 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “When a principle is strong and (you feel) imperative, everything you do to justify it or rationalize it makes it weaker. Everything.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:07 AM – 24 Jan 2020

@SaranshGNY This is good coming from Taleb because many radical nationalist movements around the globe misinterpret his ideas and consider him the intellectual patron saint of their cause. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1220417092819857408   Permalink 11:33 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Maybe overkill… pic.twitter.com/48FfKKCFGB Permalink 3:19 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tXnUvPFk9R Permalink 2:30 PM – 23 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Now @sapinker will tell us that it is “irrational” to worry about it because there is “evidence” that more people die falling from ladders. #PseudoEmpiricism #NaiveEmpiricism https://twitter.com/WellmanAlex/status/1220044510287269889   Permalink 11:25 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@TulsiGabbard For years, @ggreenwald has exposed abuses at the highest levels of government and his investigative journalism deserves our support. If we allow the powerful to silence such journalists, our democracy and freedom is in peril. #StandWithGreenwald Permalink 9:53 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Terry Jones. Permalink 7:35 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@DollarBillBall “If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:14 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The key is to have a PDF of Abram & Steg. at all times, in all places. pic.twitter.com/wiCxXtiVIv Permalink 7:07 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Workout du jour. (Plane ride) pic.twitter.com/tPxFexOcAW Permalink 6:44 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “It is a sign of weakness to avoid showing signs of weakness.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:39 AM – 22 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A clear thread in the Tesla problem. https://twitter.com/tedstein/status/1219406746868953088   Permalink 3:58 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A person who can get public attention must never fight vendors who screwed them out of a sense of privilege; only out of obligation. https://twitter.com/piehead9/status/1219747489147969537   Permalink 3:42 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Lecktshuring birds how to fly? https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1219727714568916993   Permalink 3:10 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There is nothing more exhilarating than lifting something extremely heavy over your head. It requires maximal concentration. You lift with your neural system. Beats deadlifing. https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1219360661920264193   Permalink 1:58 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Bureaucrats, I was told, find my lectures very painful. https://twitter.com/ThornCharmer/status/1219710962011385856   Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Now that I am safely away I can say No. They are equal. No winner. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1219691427220901889   Permalink 11:14 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Yes I am still losing weight. https://twitter.com/unic_eng/status/1219654660514107392   Permalink 9:16 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #extremedeadlifting @mises #MiloofCroton pic.twitter.com/SoyGWCcbnc Permalink 7:08 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Eastern Mediterranean Cosmopolitanism, open-minded, multicultural, tolerant and localist, preceded Arabist Fascism, Arabist Monocultural Nationalism, Arabist intolerance and Westernphobia. #Localism #BringLebanonBackToTheMed #Cyprus Permalink 5:57 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@MarinaStavrou9 Same with people… https://twitter.com/RealEmirHan/status/1219193479009574913   Permalink 2:10 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I did not *really* concede that it was tastier than the Beiruti one! I was being polite to my hosts! Meanwhile proud to be present at the inauguration of the “Makridakis Center for BS Busting in Forecasting”, MCBBF, more politely called the “Makr Open Forecasting Center” MOFC https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1219547062146084864   Permalink 1:15 AM – 21 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Traditionally, Greco-Phoenicians & Greco-Syrians had a Greek/Graeco-Roman & a Semitic name. Taleb = “Philologos”, scholar. pic.twitter.com/CmBYfugxUm Permalink 2:18 PM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Lefkosia, the competition between Lebanese and Cypriot squid ink. ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ pic.twitter.com/Jaf601lvsm Permalink 11:26 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb An apology is (almost always) an expression of submission. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1219231958875570177   Permalink 4:31 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There are two types of apologies. One by people relieving their conscience. The other is by those who are caught. Never trust those who apologize after being caught. Permalink 4:15 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Same effect (and more efficient) then to source from Turkey rather than either locally or from some place w/ a strong currency, no @EHSANI22 ? https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1219217093675114496   Permalink 4:10 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I mean what is the origin; even in Heb it is quadri גִלגוּל Permalink 2:49 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/51E6R4PwSX Permalink 1:07 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Friends, what is the root of the quadri تدحرج ? Permalink 12:48 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Always think “meta” https://twitter.com/LoveAcid/status/1219080627045224449   Permalink 12:43 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “Nudging” by that ignorant @R_Thaler https://twitter.com/justinowings/status/1219059978121560064   Permalink 12:38 AM – 20 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Is ay7uko from the E. Aramaic ayko? pic.twitter.com/YN0fva1UfL Permalink 10:16 PM – 19 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Free markets eventually lead to free speech. Censorship by social media not compatible w/ free enterprise! Markets => Ideas, not reverse. ” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #markets Permalink 1:04 PM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Summary if discussion with Dan Azzi. 1) An explicit haircut reduces uncertainty. People are frozen; yuuge anxiety. 2) It is much much easier to scam atheists than religious people. The mind does not like a vacuum. Permalink 8:15 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A7uka visibly is only understood in the Koura valley. Permalink 3:32 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@nntaleb SemiticPhilological Mysteries du Jour “He/it is (here)” Innahu (huna) انه هنا (Arabic), Hebrew הוא כאן Now where are these from? la7uwwé (hon) (Beirut) sha77hu (hown) (Keserwan) a7uka (hawwn) (North Lebanon) The a7uka is pretty strange. Permalink 2:21 AM – 19 Jan 2020

@bounassif_rabih @nntaleb @businessinsider they do not mention the fact that you refused the refund without fair treatment to all other customers. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-hell-help-tesla-customer-accidentally-spent-4333-2020-1   Permalink 11:33 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The worse problem is that probability uncertainty creates fat tails REGARDLESS of the environment https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.00277.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/O2jtxxZLCj”>  pic.twitter.com/O2jtxxZLCj Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I mean IN ADDITION to ergodicity there is the substitution of integrals when translated from artificial constructs into real life. The error is explicitly made by nudgeboy Thaler and Phil the rat Tetlock https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4zx3JyfAvY”>  pic.twitter.com/4zx3JyfAvY Permalink 5:25 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The main problem is that there is no such thing as explicit bets with known probabilities in real life. Only in shit papers like @R_Thaler read by ignorant psychologists. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WW3qwcRV6g”>  pic.twitter.com/WW3qwcRV6g Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Watch the thread where nudgeboy @R_Thaler w/a “Nobel” is being taken to shreds by probabilists & quants. His Mickey Mouse™ framework cannot handle dynamics, time, hence he can’t get #ergodicity. Behavioral Economics is dead. I mean, dead. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1218356464034689024   Permalink 4:14 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) One TV intervention per decade, so far. My summary and solutions are here, with the TV lecture at USJ. I explained and introduced the notion of “Ponzi” & the train left the station. My summary is here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU   Permalink 4:01 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) It is just that I am not interested in TV crap/conferences to minimize noise. Nor am I interested in selfies with rioters. #Lebanon #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I can understand pple blaming me for not being in Lebanon during these difficult times… …except that I am in Lebanon. Indeed we should blame the diaspora pundits for lecturing & bullshitting w/o coming to show their face #skininthegame. I’ve been coming back every 3-4 w. Permalink 3:48 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is how one can skip the limit by the summation/integral inequality pic.twitter.com/kIyVyAgb1F Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Typo. I am integrating from 0^n not 1^n pic.twitter.com/jAeyKDAuIB Permalink 3:02 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Here is my solution. There is an alternative by @hvairinhos pic.twitter.com/bYj1c1sAb7 Permalink 2:57 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 2:42 PM – 18 Jan 2020

@mikeandallie 2/3 if you follow @nntaleb ‘s writing, you’ll probably find this paragraph in the story to be particularly interesting: pic.twitter.com/WV2aSUIo33 Permalink 6:13 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb #localism From a #RWRI alumni https://twitter.com/diomavro/status/1218219039706710018   Permalink 2:57 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is a very, very, very unfair competition. Even if the squid comes from the same waters. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1218428997224292352   Permalink 2:55 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Math du Jour: a tricky limit pic.twitter.com/DDyu6Ci91T Permalink 1:18 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@nntaleb When I say @R_Thaler is the outlier fellow who got very, very far in life knowing nothing about probability. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1218391685274750979   Permalink 12:16 AM – 18 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “Just as “political science” doesn’t have any science, “think tanks” are for people who don’t and can’t think.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:47 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@_barrelrider @nntaleb Evidence they say. https://www.wsj.com/articles/98-6-degrees-fahrenheit-isnt-the-average-any-more-11579257001   Permalink 4:11 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@calanmcdonald Thanks for escalating this @nntaleb. Same issue happened to me. Put phone in pocket, in 2 minutes got charged $13k for upgrades. That was Dec 28th. Local Tesla service center in Agoura has been fantastic in getting back to me with updates, but they seem stuck w/ Tesla Fremont. Permalink 4:07 PM – 17 Jan 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Volatility is good, risk is not.” | “Only the hyper-paranoid survive.” | nailing 2 #RWRI -lessons with one strip | @nntaleb & Co. For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   For my books https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/MBWYCjq6d6″>  pic.twitter.com/MBWYCjq6d6 Permalink 9:35 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Tinkering: fresh squid ink broth pic.twitter.com/2T49rdoyd0 Permalink 5:19 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Being rich is great for the wise (optionality), but a curse for the suckers as people prey on them & hijack their preferences. https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   Permalink 5:13 AM – 17 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is incredible how many problems money can create. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1217920978723975189   Permalink 4:55 PM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb How your ideas become #Lindy https://twitter.com/philosophytweet/status/1217830140039790592   Permalink 7:57 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ingogun/status/1217825162139226113?s=20   Permalink 7:55 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@henrizaq Xaɕiiɕet le xruuf e rrekmė Ḍ Ṣ Ṭ hii mec bel xarf, bel masnad elli baɔd el xarf @lebaneselingui1 le mɔallem Rojėė ɕelu diraasė mfaṣṣlė ɔan hayda l mawḍuuɔ W biyɕuul li biymayyez ط ܛ Ṭ ɔan T ܬ ت Huu l masnad yalli waraaha Metel Ta= تا ܬܐ W Tɑ= طا ܛܐ #ɕalef #leggetna Permalink 5:33 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “”Start by being warm, pleasant, & generous w/every person you meet; but if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him; & if he messes w/you, remember to keep messing w/him long after he has forgotten about it”. Silver Rule of Fat Tony in #SkinInTheGame” Permalink 4:26 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb #Localism https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1217779770794151937   Permalink 4:16 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This UN imbecile wants to grant more powers to #RiadPonzi? https://twitter.com/UNJanKubis/status/1217354961329250305   Permalink 2:06 AM – 16 Jan 2020

@nntaleb A lot of pple think one has to be pro or anti-Tesla. Life is nuanced! I love my Tesla, but customer service is terrible. (Used to be great but degraded sharply over the past 2 y. When I bought the car they used to come to you for repairs. No more). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1066322788657610752?s=20   Permalink 5:00 PM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Fi honik apologist la #RiadPonzi esmo الدكتور جواد خليل صالح المهن Fi 7ada bya3ref mino? Ma 3an lé2i bi Aachen. #lebanonprotests #لبنان_ينتفض pic.twitter.com/py8Jnl3Vhg Permalink 4:15 PM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Elon @elonmusk, your Customer Support at Tesla is even worse than I claimed last time. It is an insult to your customers. pic.twitter.com/3HZ2YSjigS Permalink 7:39 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/3VB7qrF4xF Permalink 4:35 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In other words, treating individuals as members of groups necessarily implies NO variance between individuals in that group. Permalink 4:23 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In PRINCIPIA POLITICA I state that it both unethical & unscientific to look at a person’s population traits rather his/her own –both a sampling problem & racism. Treat individuals as individuals not as a members of a group. pic.twitter.com/nE2eHvup5r Permalink 4:12 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “Caused by” of course here should be “may have been caused by” Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Connection to localism: small fires reduce connectivity. Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb @black_swan_man pic.twitter.com/cxeE3224jv Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Jan 2020

@nntaleb FOREST FIRES IN AUSTRALIA: Caused by irresponsible bureaucrats creating chaos by seeking stability. #Antifragile has sections on forest fires & ancestral heuristics (s.a. cultural burning) that “make no sense” to ignorant nudgeboys Sunstein & Thaler & scientistic bureaucrats. https://twitter.com/tompccs/status/1216755462265352193   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sYHYpm3Udh”>  pic.twitter.com/sYHYpm3Udh Permalink 9:41 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “As a general rule, most “regrets” after one is caught’s aren’t regrets about having committed the action, but regrets about having been caught. Apologies count only when they are spontaneous, coming out of deep principles. Otherwise they are just an expression of submission.” Permalink 9:08 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Definition Du Jour An intellectual is a designation for someone who, should she or he stopped writing, will never be read again. Permalink 4:34 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Beirut is an unusual place. Ads now target rioters. pic.twitter.com/VZCQUa8FWd Permalink 12:47 PM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Beirut squid ink. No rice, no pasta, just squid in its ink. The best. Everything is 100% local. pic.twitter.com/wGBp5ZeyHH Permalink 6:08 AM – 14 Jan 2020

@JeanMarcMjbr From the peculiarities of the Lebanese language Eng: Sunrise Fre: Lever du soleil Ar: شروق الشمس Ita: Levata del sole Lebanese: Tiiz d-daww Permalink 3:07 AM – 14 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) One of my summaries explaining how Phil-the-Rat Tetlock’s @ptetlock’s comments on forecasting, tails & GMOs are verbalisms, that is, BS. (From Book. Paper coming out soon in Int Journal of Forecasting.) pic.twitter.com/erjK2bFhNX Permalink 10:54 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb OK, OK, people are figuring out how Nudgeboy Thaler et al. /Behavioral Econ is pseudoscience. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-13/behavioral-economics-latest-bias-seeing-bias-wherever-it-looks   Permalink 10:48 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb How to get out of the credulity rut (regression discontinuity edition): Getting beyond whack-a-mole « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/13/how-to-get-out-of-the-credulity-rut-regression-discontinuity-edition-getting-beyond-whack-a-mole/#.Xhys4ec_otU.twitter   Permalink 9:46 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@tompccs “But local authorities have forbidden them from cultural burning when they’ve asked for permission.” Cultural practices, including religous ritual, are #antifragile @nntaleb https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51043828   Permalink 8:14 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb BS BUSTING DU JOUR: Vernaculars are not لهجة, that is, a corrupted form of Classical Arabic, as is commonly taught in schools. @Safaitic https://www.academia.edu/38100372/Al-Jallad._A_Manual_of_the_Historical_Grammar_of_Arabic   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/MlvOHALtSm”>  pic.twitter.com/MlvOHALtSm Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The only EMPIRICAL test is the real world, corrected for circularity (test takers get jobs). I looked at the data IQ-income. No real association outside clinical situations. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1216722389112885248?s=20   Permalink 6:24 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@HarryDCrane The fallacy of the “open science” movement is its quest to standardize everything. What has happened with standardized testing is happening in science. Rewards those who can follow instructions – usually not people with highly original ideas. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1216487881864359936   Permalink 6:05 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Another point about IQ idiots. They think that “correlation” is an “empirical” result. CORRELATION IS NOT AN “EMPIRICAL RESULT”, but a math construct that is only informative under specific assumptions, not met with IQ. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 6:03 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 1) Actually the result is older. 2) This is not an IQ test, but IQ style standardization of performance. Point is that you can train (or the environment can train) people at producing such results in a non ecological way. 3) The deeper problem is that we DONT know future demands Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb French philosophy textbooks misattribute it to Montaigne: “philosopher, c’est apprendre a mourir”, who himself (not really knowing Greek) misattributed to Cicero (Tota enim philosophorum vita, ut ait idem, commentatio mortis) (Standard textbook for bac. https://la-philosophie.com/philosopher-apprendre-mourir-montaigne  ) https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1216681798429741057   Permalink 5:16 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb YUUGE RESULT OF 2019: a chimp beats humans at some kind of IQ style tests. It is not just IQ: this is the defeat of standardized testing, university admission, school evaluation. They select people good at *some* tests. https://twitter.com/ThornCharmer/status/1214110157900275713   Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Coach Rippetoe’s @CoachRippetoe minimum effective dose of training. Explains the difference between exercise and training. “Not the same ting”. https://startingstrength.com/article/the-minimum-effective-dose-of-training   Permalink 5:40 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In the hierarchy Erudite>>Philosopher (Analytic)> scholar>>academic>>”thinker”> “intellectual”>journalist (real type)>psycholophaster> BSVendor… Among the “conservatives”, Scruton was on top & there are few above BS vendor to replace him. Murray & Peterson are junk thought. Permalink 2:43 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Since Sir Roger’s interview trap, I’ve decided to record all my conversations with journalists. pic.twitter.com/2LkCGk6NSK Permalink 2:34 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The solution The generalization is still running pic.twitter.com/JRHXTKqvaW Permalink 2:10 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Something as trivial as standard deviation is misunderstood by users and statisticians. pic.twitter.com/5zlGXoSk8X Permalink 1:02 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Roger Scruton. Your memory and your work will be remembered. Ad vitam aeternam. Fiercely independent, he was one of the last thinkers who used their own head. Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Imperial Romans were still East Meds/Anatolians… Caesar looked like a barber in Damascus or the newly elected mayor in cental Anatolian village. https://twitter.com/TrimontiumTrust/status/1216083085198012416   Permalink 6:40 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb To repeat from my previous thread on Empires’ business model: Regime change is NOT the reason empires intervene; rather to squash defiance & force submission. U.S. not asking for regime change in S. Arabia. It wanted one in Lybia, Syria. Defiance weakens the business model. pic.twitter.com/bY6bNQvE7N Permalink 4:52 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb هيدا ضرب زكا. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216114167108849665   Permalink 3:36 AM – 12 Jan 2020

@nntaleb In the past, I would have reacted more favorably towards/defended Iran. But I am waking up every day angry with the regime over the DIRECT killing/execution of >1500 Iranian & >300 Iraqi Shiite kids. Systematic Killing of protesters … I can’t bear. Permalink 12:37 PM – 11 Jan 2020

@TrimontiumTrust A breathtaking reconstruction of Julius Caesar taken from his bust in the Vatican Museums. See more on their Facebook page here https://www.facebook.com/606887369692297/videos/vb.606887369692297/2570394953205942/?type=2&theater   https://twitter.com/sUAtateslier/status/1215693850708185090   Permalink 11:42 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is honorable to own one’s mistake; particularly one that carries tragic consequences. However, blaming another country for one’s mistake, in addition, is shoddy & an insult to the victims. It is like a drunk driver blaming the traffic light manufacturer for a fatal accident. https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1215847283381755914   Permalink 11:31 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb “In any profession, nine tenth of the people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing.” Bed of Procrustes, 3rd Ed. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1215819831351660544   Permalink 10:00 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@swerengensky HOW TO HANLDE AN EVALUATION FORM WHILE BEING REVIEWED BY YOUR BOSS. Source: a truly antifragile ‘The Black Swan’ by @nntaleb. Location: Mediterranean Sea. pic.twitter.com/o9Q4zzmAsz Permalink 9:14 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Marx’s theory of alienation is correct: (Workers separated from the product) This applies to the chain: executives are punished by desk work & meetings, etc. for 60 hours a week, then forced to retire which is a death sentence. There is no life but the #artisanal life Permalink 7:05 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 1)Modern publishing is not #Lindy (ugly books); we have the capability to make books ornate. 2) Authors can derive g. satisfaction writing WHILE typesetting. Much like painters & artisans. Division of labor kills the soul https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   https://twitter.com/erik_kwakkel/status/1181962553628483584   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/60EFWqkeGo”>  pic.twitter.com/60EFWqkeGo Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb There was perhaps no Soleimani threat (at least nothing new). And there was no need for it. Trump borrowed an old Persian trick: put the head of a horse in the enemy’s bed. https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49   Permalink 4:59 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 5) There was perhaps no Soleimani threat (at least nothing new) & no need for it to intervene. What Trump did was directly borrowed from an old Iranian trick: put an horse in the enemy’s bed. https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49   Permalink 4:42 AM – 11 Jan 2020

@nntaleb DAVOS MEMORY: I called it the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers). 5 y ago, their head of communication @amonck tried to smear me, saying I didn’t mention Popper in The Black Swan (Popper is mentioned 53 times). They are even incompetent at smearing. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1089160889503285253   Permalink 2:32 PM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This public shaming is the most effective use of the minority rule: ethics is highly asymmetric! https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb What makes it easy is that Lebanon is small (5 mil) and Beirut is about 1 mil. There is no Washington DC or Brasilia for politicians to hide. Permalink 10:36 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb VERY EFFECTIVE STRATEGY IN #LebanonProtests Shame politicians & bureaucrats by booing them in restaurants & public places. It is yuuuugely effective. pic.twitter.com/iGPmzpVaaD Permalink 10:31 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb MY LIST, 1 +Loeve, 2 vol +Karatzas & Shreve +Cover and Thomas, El of Inf Th +Embrechts et al (or De Haan and Fereira) on EVT +Gnedenko & Kolmogorov- Limits +Doob Stochastic Processes +Uchaikin & Zolotarev or Samorodinsky & Taqqu on Stable +Billingsley: Prob. & Measure Borel pic.twitter.com/VP4yHv7EvZ Permalink 10:25 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@polemitis Thrilled to have @nntaleb keynoting the launch of the MOFC on January 21st @UNIC_ENG. Open to the public, but please RSVP to mcompetitions@unic.ac.cy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1215669836212133889   Permalink 8:29 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Jan 21, the official launch in Lefkosia (Nicosia) of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center, MOFC (a.k.a. Makridakis BS debunker in forecasting MBSDF). Cypriot & Phoenician (white) wine, local squid ink. pic.twitter.com/72UTvMmx9e Permalink 8:20 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@chasechandler Hmm…Where have I heard this before? A paper from BCG – “Thinking Biologically” – reads like a summary of Antifragile or #RWRI lecture. @normonics @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ioX4bu21SX Permalink 7:45 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 6) “Show me the man & I will find you the crime”. — Practically every executive & politician in Japan (& France) has as some side benefit been invited to stretch the law a little bit. Then “they” can use it when the person becomes bothersome. Gray areas become black or white. Permalink 7:36 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The fact is that Nissan lured Ghosn into coming to Japan; jumping bail for entrapment is fair game. And to see how vicious the system is: Nissan was the one doing surveillance on Ghosn when he was out on bail. Nissan, not the government. https://twitter.com/oztran/status/1215656273347112960?s=20   Permalink 7:30 AM – 10 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Negative forecasting via the #Lindy effect pic.twitter.com/Qcxszce6wN Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@nntaleb You can buy anyone. Well, almost. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1215258903912550401   Permalink 5:23 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we have women scholarships open for #RWRI 13 http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 4:21 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@JYuter Please remind me how the Jews fared under Communist Russia. https://twitter.com/jacobinmag/status/1214820785606610944   Permalink 2:36 AM – 9 Jan 2020

@yannispetro Modelling #Lindy as a stopping time. Thank you @nntaleb for the intuition! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1215056089517035521   Permalink 5:20 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Bingo https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1215066143519436801?s=20   Permalink 5:00 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I deny all involvement in the matter. I deny having ever tried to set him up. I deny, deny, deny. I am innocent. https://twitter.com/wolandov555/status/1215059700284149760?s=20   Permalink 4:46 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Among other things, the ONLY way to model #Lindy is via a stochastic process. It is probability, not statistics or, worse, “data science”. #ThingsToFinishIn2020 https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1215001345893253128   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/paXcqOxQf7″>  pic.twitter.com/paXcqOxQf7 Permalink 3:42 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Someone got Krugman to *deny* he uses child pornography. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1214991222009409536   Permalink 2:39 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@HarryDCrane It’s a sad state of affairs that majority of Statistic Depts in US have no more than 1 probabilist on faculty. And many have 0. Many PhD programs don’t even teach probability or stochastic processes anymore. Meaning next generation doesn’t learn it, or they take in math Dept. Permalink 12:04 PM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 3: In his defense, Trump started by trying to “negotiate” with the Persian regime. They said no. Then he rapidly saw they have relatively ZERO military power & shd start making them aware of it. He thinks he can one day make them an offer they can’t refuse. Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 2: Neocons with Platonic ideas & Hilarist interventionists are just nerds (IYIs) who never had a real job in their lives. They can’t figure out the game but promote it; thus have been ideal operators for the Millitary Complex. Permalink 8:11 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Footnote 1: Hanibal left the Italian Peninsula because the Senate in Carthage cut him off, with the message: “We’re not in that business”. Carthage was too profitable from trade and agriculture to follow the millitaristic route. Permalink 6:42 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) Plus charge the Europeans for protection. Recall an Empire’s military must be self-financing. Or perhaps, exit that model (Rand Paul style noninterventionism, to which I subscribe) Permalink 6:38 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) Iraq War had little to do w/anything but model consistency: as w/the Judean rebellion, punish insubordination/defiance, reward economic submission. Clarity of mind: Trump figured out THAT business model (i) REQUIRES direct punishment of Iranian Regime, or (ii) change model Permalink 6:36 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) U.S. has a greater relative military capability in history. Makes no sense: (i) w/o exacting protection money (Europe pays little even indirect), (ii) w/defiant states. Empires’ model is to crush defiant states, plunder & parade Vercingetorix, Zenobia,… Saddam. Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Thread on US/IRAN 1) An empire (say Rome) is built on an army that is self financing. Military supremacy generates income. Division of Specialization: If you are money-making (say Phoenicians) then you don’t need an army, you just pay whoever runs that business for protection. Permalink 5:52 AM – 8 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Finally, some clarity in my life. Manti, Shish Borek (my favorite), Kinkhali, Pelmeni, etc. all come from the Chinese steamed/fried dumplings that made NY worth living. https://twitter.com/ykomska/status/1213908289899126785   Permalink 2:57 PM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I love my Tesla. But service, when you need it… Permalink 12:35 PM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Tesla, @elonmusk, has to work on its customer service & service centers. I mean, really work on it. Permalink 9:03 AM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb What I am learning today is that unless the quote is fabricated, Einstein did not know about trial and error, or, for that matter, the problem of induction. https://twitter.com/gusskabbara/status/1214558489067966464   Permalink 7:13 AM – 7 Jan 2020

@nntaleb As you get richer, you can feel safer, & don’t give a f**ck of what people think (if you invest safely). As you get more *prominent*, get an academic or political position or some accolade (Nobel prize), you are much more vulnerable as you have much further to fall. Permalink 1:13 PM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 (One more) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400   Permalink 1:04 PM – 6 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 10:41 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Not a general rule; but remember there have been at least 2000 funerals in Iraq and Iran (all Shiites) of kids killed by the regime. Permalink 9:10 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Crowds are complex. The more they mourn your departure, the more they welcome new policies. As with Nasser’s funeral, they say goodbuy to both him and his policies. Le roi est mort vive le roi. https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/1214223199166222336   Permalink 8:51 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump #SantaClaus #rally #protection pic.twitter.com/uGYUvN2kGS Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The final version. pic.twitter.com/mGeZuP5xgH Permalink 6:30 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb The clarity of mind of pundits, journalists and political commentators discussing the Soleimani affair. pic.twitter.com/957DPvWfOG Permalink 6:19 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Here is my treatment of standard deviation/variance as a bogus metric even in the Gaussian world when scaled back in terms of informmation. pic.twitter.com/pIZbPrd9wx Permalink 5:45 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb (The original Latin expression was written by Ulpian in Berytus: Durum hoc est sed ita lex scripta est). Permalink 5:03 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@nntaleb CLASSICISM DUJOUR Friends, looking for an ancient expression ~ mafia’s philosophical “it is what it is” (in The Irishman). In Latin: “dura lex sed lex”, in French: “c’est la vie”, or the great Mutanabbi’s يشتهي البحر ما لا تشتهي السفن Theremustbebetterones cc:@ArmandDAngour pic.twitter.com/w3ksNb7WXC Permalink 4:44 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@infernoxv Merry Christmas to my friends on the right calendar! Քրիստոս Ծնաւ և Յայտնեցաւ! Χριστός Γεννάται! Христос Рождаєтьсѧ! Christus Natus Est! Hristos se Naşte! وُلِد المسـيحُ، فَمَـجِّدُوه (Armenian icon, 18th century Madonna with Child and the 12 Apostles). pic.twitter.com/oomfr85r8o Permalink 1:25 AM – 6 Jan 2020

@BrankoMilan “very few people are able to create systems of thought that go across multiple disciplines and display internal coherence.” This was my conclusion re. @nntaleb system. And regularly, perhaps once a month, somebody writes me about that. http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-importance-of-talebs-system-from.html   Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) And the world is differentfromwhatitwasin 1979,1991,2004. Hypersonic missiles (the one that hit Soleimani) have compounded US military superiority via yuuuuge gains in precision. For Trump, very tempting to use. See the prophetic op-ed by @sns_1239 https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1212921826440962048?s=20   Permalink 3:04 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) PROXY WARS: For instance you cannot believe how sick & tired the Lebanese are of Iran wanting to use Lebanon to fight Israel; why the fuck don’t they fight directly w/o putting the #skininthegame of other countries’ innocent civilians and NOT one’s own? That was 2 weeks ago pic.twitter.com/U0TK9UeQLl Permalink 2:39 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) I believe in FULL noninterventionism. But if two countries or regimes want to fuck with one another, they must do so directly and without involving bystanders. #Localism Permalink 2:09 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Basically the indirect, proxy wars between the US & Iran were both offensive to the victims (Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc.) & allowed this indirect hostility to carry on for 4 decades! By threatening to directly hit Iran, Trump, forbetterorworse, is making it simple: war or peace https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1213835292756643850   Permalink 1:40 PM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Meanwhile we are not getting into this riddle for the inequality, rather the beautiful properties of the integral of x^x and its mystery! @joe_shipman Permalink 9:18 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1112690030135398400   Permalink 8:04 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Can Trump’s unpredictability and randomness of reactions be an effective foreign policy? From Fooled by Randomness (INCERTO, vol 1). How injecting uncertainty in your decision making is a potent deterrent as others don’t know how you OVERREACT. pic.twitter.com/9zrF6YPxqw Permalink 6:51 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@sean_a_mcclure https://twitter.com/sean_a_mcclure/status/1211127151908442113   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aaVmNDf9Bv”>  pic.twitter.com/aaVmNDf9Bv Permalink 4:58 AM – 5 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/jE14Nuj8EN Permalink 2:32 PM – 4 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Shiism, much like Christianity, is based on martyrdom. Someone in Washington doesn’t get it. #Soleimani Permalink 12:18 PM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb This is unfair to Naval as he limits stuff to his specialty. But basically, once a free person decides to act as a public judge he/she, should have no friends –just look at the world as a judge in a courthouse. Public “intellectuals” are usually propagandists. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1212527237003649024   Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb I have no idea. Questions: what was Soleimani’s role in the repression of the Iraq riots? the Iran riots? I have no idea there as well. Thanks. https://twitter.com/HannesM1/status/1213078343287017475?s=20   Permalink 5:07 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@nntaleb It is a matter of scale, @MaxAbrahms: – In a localist system with distributed agents (s.a. Qaeda, ISIS), decapitation is not effective by definition since there is no HEAD. – In a centralized one, it’s only effective where policy depends on a HEAD. Imagine history w/o Bonaparte https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1212930025273606145   Permalink 4:29 AM – 3 Jan 2020

@LTF_01 Truly a Roman among Greeks – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1212420139578036225   Permalink 1:26 PM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 5) I don’t know Ghosn & never socialize with people who like panache, glitz, and play hotshots while being on a salary. I don’t like his style (philistinic). But I think he is a highly capable man, will defend his right to defend himself & I respect him for his escape. Gabish? Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 4) No, I m not claiming Carlos Ghosn is innocent. My point is that Japan (a country of systematic coverups & feudal alliances) is NOT the place for the trial of foreigners Actually Japan is not the place for any trial & Highest mob involvement in the “legit” economy in the world Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@TalebWisdom “There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity.” Permalink 3:29 AM – 2 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 3) No, no, I am not related to Carlos Ghosn. My mother’s family name is Ghosn but different origin: Greek Orthodox from the Saliba branch (Stavros) while Carlos Ghosn is Maronite. Permalink 7:01 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2) Remember that Ghosn’s arrest was a set-up by prosecutors and colluding Nissan people. It is fair to say “f**ck you” to you in return and enjoy nice fresh organic & Lebanese wine tabbouleh in Achrafieh (near my grandparents & parents house). Permalink 4:54 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb So you are proud of your legal system that puts people in cages waiting for them to break down physically & emotionally? Whatever one can blame Ghosn for, I am proud of his escape and the way he say “f**k you” to you & your system. Bravo Carlos G. –and especially Carole! https://twitter.com/MasuzoeYoichi/status/1212343774879182848   Permalink 3:52 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@GuruAnaerobic Poll: Who are treated the worst? Permalink 3:34 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Curious events in 2019: Moscow airport, 10 religious Jews, thinking I was Persian, approached me in Farsi; wanted me to read Cyrillic for the gate for “Tehron” No English,No Russian Found myself speaking Hebrew w/Iranian Jews & took them to their gate Stange Iranian tolerance Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb (cont) pic.twitter.com/PTR0tI4V3G Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb Most productive Jan 1 ever: finished the Glossary. Explained the Pinker Problem (naive empiricism, confirmatory positivism or the inference of the imbecile). pic.twitter.com/zexlXtMxfC Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS of 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/991133488198897666   Permalink 10:59 AM – 1 Jan 2020

@nntaleb 2- The entire problem of Japan is that they specialized in perfecting what others invent, which can only take you so fat. Traders failure is not accepted; there is yuuuge number of traders who turn into Madoff after hiding a loss then do a hara kiri. https://twitter.com/RobRastapop/status/1212386078553853957?s=20   Permalink 10:37 AM – 1 Jan 2020

@BLebnene W hay riznemit l 2020 saarit jehze! Kill shaher fii matal Libnene 3anno, w suura min turaasna Llibnene, w akiid iyyem l esbuu3. Yalle bi7ebb yitba3a w ysherika ma3na! W yin3aad 3laykon w nshalla tkuun sinit kher 3al kill. Nbusto llayle w diiro belkon! https://drive.google.com/open?id=1E82yjOSx_2cmBZq58l1nDH8I4yNI4SRo   https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1211057051721437185   Permalink 6:55 AM – 31 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RACISM SYMPOSIUM — Friends, running Twitter symposia around topics in PRINCIPIA POLITICA. The comments will be integrated in the text. https://academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xwDsu9ExHJ”>  pic.twitter.com/xwDsu9ExHJ Permalink 4:41 AM – 31 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Book being here https://fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm   Permalink 12:33 PM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb So Mr Warburton @philosophybites you don’t feel dishonorable promoting a plagiarized book, after being made aware of it? https://twitter.com/philosophybites/status/1204215650635268096   Permalink 12:26 PM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This regression’s sole aim is to make IQ Eugenists and Quilettists look good. https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1211682959994081280   Permalink 8:33 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb strict Permalink 7:47 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb In addition to SPURIOUS correlation from data insufficiency under fat tails, correlation requires strick linear relationship Y=a+b X. Otherwise uninformative. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 7:43 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 My Lecture in Lebanese “From Ponzi to Localism” at the USJ, on Leb TV, during the riots. It angered, among others, #RiadPonzi and the bankers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU&lc=UgyptrdHQVyeh_UIpvR4AaABAg   Permalink 6:10 AM – 30 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I wrote this in 2007: How can you tell a cultural philistine? At the Kulback-Leibler differential with the common culture. pic.twitter.com/H0qksdgcBM Permalink 12:49 PM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, here are (some of) the books I enjoyed in 2019. pic.twitter.com/UqarbFAPJ6 Permalink 12:10 PM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Tell me what you don’t read, I will tell you who you are. Bed of Procrustes 3rd ed. https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1211329751715065861   Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Tell me what you read, I will tell you who you are! These are largely newspaper articles under bindings. The probability of any of these books surviving a decade (except perhaps Darlymple & Murakami) so tiny. Not #Lindy #ReadRealBooks https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1211033245812441091   Permalink 7:28 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@benkunz Remind me to never pick a fight with Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Here he knocks down the very premise of IQ tests, apropos of the NYT op-ed scandal. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1211056571427540994   Permalink 7:02 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “You will never know if someone is an asshole until he becomes rich.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:10 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1118272590416613376   Permalink 3:43 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1082063513961533440   Permalink 3:41 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@nntaleb One of the myths is that the “rich gets richer”. It is almost always different people who are getting richer, owing to rotation at the top. The richest 1% of 2019 are not quite the same as the richest 1% of 2009, etc. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   #ergodicity https://twitter.com/fionncoll/status/1211234632508878854   Permalink 3:38 AM – 29 Dec 2019

@largbae Douma chemical weapons attack was staged… @nntaleb called this back when it happened, Assad sucks but he had no reason to undermine his own cause… So what was the real reason for the attack? https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1210564199161708545   Permalink 8:01 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@fexplosiong Thank you for this! pic.twitter.com/vT2qXKVNSf Permalink 3:42 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb FORGOT A BIG HIGHLIGHT OF 2019 https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:49 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Saar 3am yktob Gebran @Gebran_Bassil bil Lebnéné (Kn3ané) lght l balad. Bravo w mamnunin! #Localism https://twitter.com/Gebran_Bassil/status/1210866433959313408   Permalink 2:38 PM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This is going viral: I’ve written in the past 5 articles for the NYT under pressure from publisher. I hated the compromise. The optimal strategy is the #barbell: Twitter + Books (+math appendices) https://twitter.com/ByYourLogic/status/1210970412177330178   Permalink 11:30 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb …which is why I insist that I’ve written only ONE single piece, a book (Incerto, 5 volumes) and its technical endnotes and appendix (Technical Incerto, TK so far 2 volumes, comprising papers). Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb In #FooledByRandomness I explain an aspect of it: the more frequent the sampling the higher the noise. pic.twitter.com/czFwBbqrm8 Permalink 8:47 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The mechanism in #Antifragile: spurious correlations (and “results”) are convex to number of variables. pic.twitter.com/NlgPLPP2Un Permalink 8:40 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Recall that the more information you get, the more disproportionately higher the ratio of noise to signal. Say, a little bit of information, 50% noise; a lot, 99.9% noise. Likewise, in any field, the higher the number of academic publications the higher the ratio of garbage. Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/qUiEGYJ4a7 Permalink 6:24 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb One more result for 2019″: What You See and What You Don’t See https://www.academia.edu/41450198/What_You_See_and_What_You_Dont_See_The_Hidden_Moments_of_a_Probability_Distribution   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/AR4TP5iCt2″>  pic.twitter.com/AR4TP5iCt2 Permalink 5:25 AM – 28 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Among the best skills for real life: the ability to be bored early. Permalink 3:03 PM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019 https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1180123451446743040   Permalink 10:51 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Last piece of research of 2019: PCA maps for genetics https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   Permalink 10:47 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@MaxAbrahms The US attacked Syria for a chemical attack by Assad last year. But official #OPCW scientists who investigated the event didn’t find evidence the Syrian military used chemical weapons. The media has chosen to ignore this story & fire its own journalists who try to report on it. Permalink 8:03 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I have severe Bullshitphobia. I was told it was uncurable. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1210587390848458753   Permalink 7:48 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1183796584225619972   Permalink 5:43 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1175669049990275072   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1166281708825645056   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1163544326829412352   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160246858977095680   Permalink 5:42 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1170742156023275521   Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1180589233641181185   Permalink 5:41 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1172864041016090624   Permalink 5:40 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HIGHLIGHTS 2019 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1180252513095897089   Permalink 5:39 AM – 27 Dec 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ErnestBoehm/status/1210254177479335938   Permalink 9:41 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Psychologists use “IQ” to politely put people & entire races in boxes with the label “idiots”, and stick them there for a lifetime. They ruin people’s careers and potentials. Politely. I call psychologists (& IQ mountebanks) idiots to their face. Not politely.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1210239645486919680?s=20   Permalink 8:54 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@henrizaq ɕeza baddaq Lebnėėn yṣiir yecbah Swiisra Ballec bel xarf. #ɕalef Permalink 8:25 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Preliminary result for entropy based genetic maps. Might change the way we view distances between population and rates of inbreeding. pic.twitter.com/R30uedJCP8 Permalink 6:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Edited pic.twitter.com/wO4bLMUMN1 Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HpIDw9gK6Y Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Rule 1: The more you overreact w/some, the less you need to react w/others. As w/the IRS: increase the penalty & lower your audit rate. Rule 2: when a fraud fucks w/you, say @charlesmurray, @mpigliucci, @sapinker, @SamHarrisOrg or @Noahpinion, keep busting them for decades! Permalink 4:50 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMurry/status/1210160773634412545?s=20   Permalink 3:41 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If anyone tries to bully you, there is one and one way to react: ignore or overreact. By overreact I mean, really, overreact. https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1209869444626952192   Permalink 2:55 AM – 26 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Every Christmas I need to make the point that no, the Christ was not a … Since I wrote this piece we got overwhelming DNA evidence during 2019 that Southern Levantines had indistinguishable DNA from that of Imperial Romans. https://link.medium.com/5wC4Ie9QB2   Permalink 11:47 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb And if he read the Torah by himself (possible but not likely): Hebrew was NOT spoken anymore. Like Latin in the 19th C. Permalink 11:25 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Coptic was never a lingua franca, Latin was only *spoken* in Beirut and Baalbeck (outside the legions) and he might have had a smattering of Greek which was limited to coastal/urban Phoenicia. Permalink 11:22 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb He was the son of a carpenter. One thing I’ve learned over a long life: when someone knows French they make sure to make you aware of it. Permalink 11:15 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb (Cont) plus the Galilean dialect. Permalink 11:09 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Only Aramaic https://twitter.com/astratelates/status/1209898634302517251   Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb HEAVY TAILS 2019 pic.twitter.com/zIJH0vqR9G Permalink 9:29 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Messiah meant “anointed” (with holy oil). For Jesus Christ it was metaphoric, replaced by baptism. pic.twitter.com/gTdmN0Y93y Permalink 6:18 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb BS vendors should be spared today. This is an appeal to members of the *probabilists BS busting Squad* & other #RWRI activists to refrain from exposing people owing to the spirit of the holidays. Permalink 6:13 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb And in Semitic languages, the word Christ (Ms(h)7)משיח has the same root as ms7 “to wipe”, משחה, “ointment”, to surface/area (masaa7a مساحة)… https://twitter.com/JAJafri/status/1209418574248452096   Permalink 5:33 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Merry Christmas everyone! Χρόνια Πολλά! Permalink 2:59 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Variance is not a good measure of noise in a system. How it scales with entropy. pic.twitter.com/f2e1TFTIJx Permalink 1:26 AM – 25 Dec 2019

@AhsanDeliri Lessons of 2019: 1) Correlation isn’t close to what you think it actually is. 2) Most people don’t know statistics let alone probability. 3) It’s not that field is lacking earnest students. It’s that the field is taught wrong all around. 4) A second rate statistician is deadly Permalink 7:51 PM – 24 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The same with infinite expectations under Fat Tails! https://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/1209476628050587648   Permalink 2:35 PM – 24 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Dead people are very, very good at keeping secrets. https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1209108187741212672   Permalink 3:33 PM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 5) When people deny they “unconditional support” it means they “unconditionally support”. The Iranians killed ~1500 kids. Even if the number if off, it is immoral to stay silent, @snarwani, & even more immoral to blindly claim Western propaganda. pic.twitter.com/3d9yMBYdHo Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Dec 2019

@Marwa_Laham And the good news is we have an Association of Small depositors ( All of us who have been venting about banks). Check it out and share it and RT it please. #كرمال_كلنا_نعيد https://forms.gle/FvZJoHLUSceiK2hC7   #لبنان_ينتفض #لبنان #إليسا ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kiIFeB2FyY”>  pic.twitter.com/kiIFeB2FyY Permalink 9:13 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb M5 is launched. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1209153609432211457   Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb To clarify & answer comments: 1) Correlation is a measure for linear relationships, but it is nonlinear in its interpretation (and non additive). 2) A simple example of why correlation doesn’t work under nonlinearity, and why MI always works. pic.twitter.com/Rv3wXpOSJT Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SITG https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1208831048026509312   Permalink 6:31 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@MaxAbrahms Reuters says about 1,500 people were killed during the November demonstrations in #Iran based on info gathered from security forces, morgues, hospitals and coroners’ offices. This estimate is much higher than previous estimates. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-protests-specialreport-idUSKBN1YR0QR   Permalink 4:39 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The other effect of PRINCIPIA POLITICA: Article 3 “Public institutions must have an expiration date.” A Russian “UNIVERSITY 2035” was created, aiming to dissolve in 2035. Met them in Kazan. Focus:digital skills Joint by Novosibirsk State U,Tomsk State, FarEast Federal U pic.twitter.com/hCYKjN7fzg Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This came verbatim from PRINCIPIA POLITICA. https://twitter.com/RustedOak/status/1105133928703295488   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cqS0v4nOTJ”>  pic.twitter.com/cqS0v4nOTJ Permalink 3:53 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Footnote 2: Blocked more than 3000 people on Twitter, but picked up > 100,000 new followers during 2019. Permalink 3:07 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Footnote 1: Since it became fashionable to show such a thing, here is a list of prescription drugs I took in 2019. pic.twitter.com/4Ud0Mc6ddx Permalink 2:51 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb We are introducing simple transformations to evaluate genetic distances and homozygocity. pic.twitter.com/pqZCmqR7fc Permalink 2:44 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntaleb A severe problem with genetic/IQ studies: correlation is highly nonlinear: a correlation of 3/4 is much, much closer to 0 than to 1. Which shows why the overly used “heritability index” is nonsense. I wonder why these IQ idiots didn’t realize it before. Psychology =astrology pic.twitter.com/ODu1U3knI4 Permalink 2:33 AM – 23 Dec 2019

@nntalebbot “The traits I respect are erudition and the courage to stand up when half-men are afraid for their reputation. Any idiot can be intelligent.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Peterson, charisma? Peterson, like most psycholophasters, gives the impression of a dithering hypochondriac with an insomnia problem, having serious trouble getting his BS in order, & who regularly implores with endless speeches his girlfriends/partners to not dump him . https://twitter.com/lyleleander/status/1208865976952877057   Permalink 2:11 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Thanks to the works of @Safaitic and @PhDniX we can confirm that whatever it is a dialect OF, and whatever category you may wish to classify it in, Levantine is not a dialect OF Fus7a (Classical Arabic). It is a PARALLEL language to Fus7a. https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1208858506713075713   Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb “Organized NYC deadlifting antiBS probabilists squad” (Former student and RWRI instructor) https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1208776824093847553   Permalink 8:06 AM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Pschologists classifying “IQ deniers” as a pathology. I am a “psychology denier”, that is “bullshit denier”. https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/950771974632067073   Permalink 7:21 AM – 22 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 19- Finally, I did not compromise once in 2019. Happy Holidays for all. Permalink 3:28 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 17- Lost (some) money short HLF. But stayed long Gold, etc. 18- Found some severe & disturbing logical errors in PRINCIPIA POLITICA (which I incidentally started in 2019). Fixed quietly, so far. Permalink 3:24 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 14-Found great space for #RWRI across the sidewalk where a famous mafia don was wacked (Sparks Steakhouse), w/one of his family members now part of the #RWRI club. Feels safe. 15-Ate no seed oil 16-Feel plenty of gratitude towards my friends, esp. those who corrected errors Permalink 3:16 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 11-Blocked >3000 people on Twitter, using highly *Bayesian* tricks. 12-Ate large meals with the BS Busting Brigade connected to #RWRI, made new friends. 13-Had charlatans s.a. Sam Harris, Charles Murray, etc. publicly complaining about me. Permalink 2:57 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 8-Was subjected to 6 smear campaigns from 6 separate sources, including #Lebanon bankers w/smear video from PR firm. No effect. I need more enemies in 2020, to confuse them. 9-Lost 7 lbs but year isn’t over. 10-Tried & failed to learn Hindi. Everyone speaks English. Permalink 2:41 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 4- Published 6 papers (single auth), wrote 10 in total, 1 in epistemology 5- Increased the pushpress by 25lbs in spite of injury 6- Lectshured (& ate) in Serbia, Estonia, & Tatarstan 7- Went on #Lebanon TV after 10y to expose #RiadPonzi, introduced Ponzi term. Riad was upset Permalink 2:31 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 2019, Personal Review 1-Managed to Yuugely upset monocultures: both anti-Iran & pro-Iran shills; both pro-Trump & anti-Trump; both the “left” & the Neo-nazis/Quillette/eugenists. 2-Busted IQ as a fraud,on stat/math grounds. 3-Finished Stat Cons Fat Tails, Tech Incerto vol 1 Permalink 2:18 PM – 21 Dec 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. Cramming several #RWRI -insights into one comic strip => scalability – static vs dynamic – business school BS. @nntaleb Free stuff here https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Support me here https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/mvpfoiQvLv”>  pic.twitter.com/mvpfoiQvLv Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@DennisHXu “You do not create dynamic equality just by raising the level of those at the bottom, but rather by making the rich rotate.” https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   @nntaleb’s article on inequality is the most important and least well understood idea of the present socio-economic discourse. Permalink 9:04 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, looks like I need to give up the Medieval style with boxes (left) in favor of the right version as it becomes rapidly unwieldy. Is there a serious loss of aesthetics? pic.twitter.com/SgGVAzxDtU Permalink 4:51 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb An infallible marker of crummy intellect is when someone cherry picks from authors long dead for retrospective bigoteering. @RichardDawkins is my model of the BS vendor. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1208353116367794177   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UrjhDnF9Xw”>  pic.twitter.com/UrjhDnF9Xw Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Better interword spacing pic.twitter.com/R2byiWhKmn Permalink 3:34 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile the Technical Incerto, Vol 1: hard to get the #lindy 2-column aesthetics with a 6 by 9 book, which requires 8½ by 11. Equations and graphs make it difficult to flow properly. pic.twitter.com/Hotlu4x371 Permalink 2:19 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Colored text is #Lindy. Precedes printing. Everything needs rich aesthetics. I am following the model in PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://twitter.com/BLMedieval/status/1208311142784782336   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0OVcBR8kRG”>  pic.twitter.com/0OVcBR8kRG Permalink 1:26 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 4) I exposed @snarwani for unconditional support for the Iranian regime. This imbecile @Doranimated is worse; doesn’t get a Leb PM needs approval by ALL factions (like Hariri). Think tank pple have no academic freedom (owned by funders); almost all are subpar failed academics. Permalink 1:05 AM – 21 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 3) And the fellow has the logical abilities of a goldfish in contaminated water. Geopolitics shills are unemployable losers incapable of reasoning outside the script: if it is not A, then it is B, to counter other shills saying if not B then A. #Localism https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1208131896556707840?s=20   Permalink 1:59 PM – 20 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The best representation of Fat Tony, via Fat Tony Salerno in The Irishman. pic.twitter.com/EvsuonfGha Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Dec 2019

Economists, Paris, Moscow, Deadlifting, Tetlock, Ghosn, Tesla, Dubai/UAE, Optionsellers, Regulators, Khashoggi | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “you should study risk taking, not risk management”

@naniiyer @nntaleb Research is catching up to what you have always said https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/well/move/even-a-little-weight-training-may-cut-the-risk-of-heart-attack-and-stroke.html?smid=fb-nytimes   Permalink 3:20 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Rory lexktchring. Employees try to minimize blame. #skininthegame Note the socks. pic.twitter.com/yHtCSs9lOe Permalink 1:59 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can raise the lettrine but not done in ancient Mss. pic.twitter.com/w8HkMKuU4S Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #TariffMan @POTUS @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/MGDyg5wKUo Permalink 11:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The point is that economists and psychologists, just like astrologers and fortune tellers shd NEVER be pit in the same category as real scientists and thinkers. Gabish? https://twitter.com/rafael_060_/status/1070355057554714625   Permalink 8:36 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Colors are Lindy. In the musée de Cluny. pic.twitter.com/CoSOi7MFJb Permalink 8:30 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Sveriges riksbank officially denies appointing the “Nobel” in economics, deflecting the “IYI” accusation, shifting the blame to (the economists in) the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. But his magesty told me personally it was “not a Nobel, but a Swedish Riksbank prize” pic.twitter.com/LSD8i3roaX Permalink 7:47 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if the Lettrine format at the beginning of chapters works for the new book. pic.twitter.com/62pTH5wfv2 Permalink 6:44 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lindy https://twitter.com/JoshHochschild/status/1070016645769375744   Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@JulianKirby No #pseudos here..straight talking from @nntaleb to a packed house at #RiskMinds this morning..#skininthegame pic.twitter.com/PvOBNX5QzQ Permalink 12:27 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@ErikSchatzker Question for @black_swan_man: Is Tariff Man friend or foe? cc @nntaleb Permalink 11:24 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@JoshHochschild Example from Cajetan’s commentary on St. Thomas’s Summa Theologiae. pic.twitter.com/7H85uoLT7e Permalink 10:07 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I found the drift in meaning: “covetous” in Hebrew means “praiseworthy” in other Semitic languages. Permalink 10:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Philological Mystery du Jour: The root 7MD for לא תחמוד in the 10 Cmdmts doesn’t seem to match the meaning of the Arabic (حمد, with names like 7amid, M7mud, etc). And in Syriac texts the 10th C is ܠܐ ܬܪܓ Are they the same root? Thanks for the help. @Jonassibony @PhDniX Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The tradition of presenting a cental text surrounded by commentary is not limited to (post Rashi) Talmudic. Below + Erasmus, ~ 1515 (In Praise of Folly) + Talmud, 1482, Guadalajara, + Eramus, @BellesLettresEd, 2018 bilingual edition Figured out how to do it in LaTeX. #Lindy pic.twitter.com/obyOCOaZrl Permalink 8:56 AM – 3 Dec 2018


@nntaleb Paris is quiet this morning. The side effect of the riots: hotel employees are very, very humble. Permalink 1:42 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/JH1PlURgrc Permalink 1:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Moscow bookstore https://twitter.com/khazbi_budunov/status/1069473028856311813   Permalink 12:09 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@thomasjbevan1 ‘He is assessed by other professors, not readers. Zero skin in the game.’ I’m sure @nntaleb would agree. Academia seems to be largely a job scheme from what I can tell. Digging holes to fill them back up again https://twitter.com/meditative_man/status/1067607889529860096   Permalink 7:12 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@GareBearTheFair I swear to God @nntaleb is a Bible translator for secularists, and nobody knows it Permalink 5:23 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A Math problem with tricks. pic.twitter.com/Y7LHUPE4Vg Permalink 3:07 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Members of Congress and other rent seekers should NOT have a taxpayer subsidized/sponsored/arranged health plan. They should get one on their own. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/ocasio2018/status/1069007012044918785   Permalink 1:34 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@paulportesi @nntaleb. Taking Nassim’s idea of buildings are designed by architects to impress other architects. Calculus book writtern by math teachers are meant to impress committees or orther math teachers; not for students or practitioners. https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1069321585591492610   Permalink 12:42 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@MKM_Abdul My takeaway from The Incerto by @nntaleb is that most biases are optical illusions that appear when human behavior is viewed from a risk perspective and completely disappear when viewed from a ruin perspective. https://twitter.com/doctorxr/status/1065327150834819073   Permalink 2:46 AM – 2 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from cloudy #Beirut By @nadimbouhabib #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/AD8l4D6gGt Permalink 11:32 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Make sure you don’t compromise your ethics like @paul_salem for oil $$$, because some a***hole like me will never leave you alone for the rest of your life (again, Minority Rule). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1051952580195221504   Permalink 10:49 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@sangai_ To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things (say risk your life or career or reputation for a just cause,or live up to your word,etc) N N Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 9:29 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Something worth discussing: you can’t measure @salilstatistics the role of the x% by using standard estimators; rather from powerlaw tails. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.1791.pdf   https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1069052765870178305   Permalink 9:26 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Deadlifting is the best training for flipping cars. Just make sure you 1) prevent back injury w/the valsava maneuver, 2) use gloves to get a better grip of the side of the car,3) after deadlifting the car quicky change hand position for an explosive push,4) synchronize w/friends. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1068976373870424065   Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Just to make sure you know the @MiddleEastInst is a lobbying firm for the UAE with a mission of regime change/Salafi support/promote war in Yemen. But it is not classified as a lobby firm, but disguized as a “research” firm. Shd be classified as lobbyist https://theintercept.com/2017/08/09/gulf-government-gave-secret-20-million-gift-to-d-c-think-tank/   Permalink 10:21 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Social science means inventing a certain brand of human we can understand.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:55 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb These are false claims. Chips were traditionally fried in beef tallow, duck fat, and/or olive oil. Not in SEED oil that we now know is inflammatory. Not Lindy. @Mangan150 has been producing ample evidence that seed oil marketed as “healthy” is not healthy. pic.twitter.com/RYbXf37e9t Permalink 9:52 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Better to own up to who you tend to envy. Umberto Eco, a man of yuuge erudition. His library, Milan. pic.twitter.com/rVT1sLzja1 Permalink 9:32 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@History_Twerp I often wonder how Westerners and Levantines alike feel when it’s mentioned that Beirut was once a bastion of Greek learning and Roman law. I never get an answer. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mulukhiyyé, kebbé, & french fries in olive oil with visiting ⁦@HsenAndil⁩ and ⁦@Decafquest⁩ in Northern Phoenicia. pic.twitter.com/tGSC47KnPq Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb It is much harder to conceal one’s envy than to detect that of others. Permalink 2:46 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony What #IYI’s fail to understand is the more ya nerdify simple tings the more normal people tune ya out… Permalink 9:14 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #tesla #blackswanmobile pic.twitter.com/HV96bwUtzv Permalink 8:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Lecture on spurious correlation/hacking https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=8s   Permalink 1:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Department of using Statistics to BS: or how @paulkrugman promotes Fooled by Randomness. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1068108794838831106   Permalink 1:23 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at M4 (thread) explains why such statements by @PTetlock (and his work) on forecasting are total BS and how they worsen with fat tailedness. pic.twitter.com/F7SrwXYc4w Permalink 8:32 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Except for that hitch they were great forecasters https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1068284498872336384   Permalink 8:30 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@brianalmon The classic intellectual-yet-idiot (as @nntaleb calls them). Physicists can tell you exactly where Mars will be on a particular day a hundred years from now, but “climate scientists” have been making inaccurate predictions for decades. https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/1067986658899877888   Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@beaves_dad Wait a minute! I thought the Left were the peacemakers and the Right were the warmongerers. This doesn’t make sense. Chuck Schumer should be protesting, not Rand Paul. Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@RandPaul ICYMI: Yesterday I joined @CNN to discuss Saudi Arabia and the war in Yemen. Yesterday was a big day. The Senate woke up. The Senate said we aren’t going to keep turning a blind eye to Saudi Arabia abuses or their war in Yemen. pic.twitter.com/Tf6WkdzzYl Permalink 6:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Was asked if the INCERTO was Lindy. Fooled by Randomness, oldest of the INCERTO, is ~19 y old, & steady. This is US weekly sales (excludes UK, foreign). Same pattern in UK, Italy, Russia, etc. Younger books show same pattern. Almost all bestsellers show exponential decline. pic.twitter.com/euonj51LRb Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that stupid people (the IYI, Intellectuals Yet Idiots) are much, much more dangerous to mankind than evil people. Thanks @enzolamberti for the beautiful pamphlet by Carlo Cipolla. pic.twitter.com/75ci7l5PTv Permalink 2:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So, correction: original post shd be .01 of the people not .01% of the pple, as corrected in the 2nd tutorial. Permalink 2:20 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb What the data w @Drcirillo might be showing is vastly worse than expected: people may have a constant level of belligerence, but more and more destructive weapons. WW1 and WW2 are not outliers. (PS We got more analyses from recent data). https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1068072976455819265   Permalink 2:03 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Cleaned up the Pareto Tutorial pic.twitter.com/hySfuzf5mL Permalink 12:53 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Next time you hear someone in the defense industry claiming to help “defend” you & yours against foreign threats, call their BS. Their business is to kill people for money. They have a vested interest in wars. And they own the Foreign Policy “establishment”. https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/1067800784241401856   Permalink 3:14 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Carlos Ghosn was ambushed like an amateur. https://twitter.com/gsdc1/status/1067907924931039232   Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at the conference Dec 10-11 in NY will be exactly why statements like this one by @PTetlock are total BS. Why forecasting without #SkinintheGame is nonsense, how to be rich you need to be a “bad” forecaster. https://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   @spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1067770888056123393   Permalink 9:50 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Tutorial: Many seem interested in the “Pareto” attributes. Here is a short tutorial. pic.twitter.com/yV3R2xICT4 Permalink 8:01 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@AhsanDeliri When you confuse Newtonian mechanics and chaos theory. It’s easy to conflate problem sets. https://twitter.com/scottlinnen/status/1067156975488827392   Permalink 11:00 PM – 26 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what I am looking is for the JOINT distribution of Low heart rate AND high BP; that is, the RARE combination, not comments on either conditions considered separately. For the two conditions appear to be inversely correlated. Thanks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1064898068720615424   Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man Patron Saint Daniel Bernoulli (1 of 2) #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ergodicity pic.twitter.com/vKR99YdWfz Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Medical Puzzle: Wonder about the clinical significance of: + Low resting heart beart rate <60 + High arterial blood pressure 140/85 Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb People have the illusion that Med = Sea. No, Med = Mountains. Gabish? https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1064881210030206976   Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid Nassim Nicholas Taleb keynote at the M4 Forecasting Conference (New York City December 10/11) will be on “Forecasting and Uncertainty:The Challenge of Fat Tailedness” and after popular requests he will also talk about “Tail risks and why he thinks they are worse now than in 2007” pic.twitter.com/ZqntPkUrWx Permalink 5:41 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- Centralized political systems cannot be truly “democratic” https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1064771248264081408   Permalink 2:39 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yoga schmoga. Try strolling. Or napping. #Lindy https://twitter.com/joerogan/status/1064645547095728131   Permalink 5:41 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Back to Riyadh, hoping the Saudi mob doesn’t get all excited again. Permalink 2:57 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5) Hard to prevent idiots from polluting the discource: It is private enterprise that pulled hundreds of millions, if not a billion, out of poverty, not NGOs, not socialism, not redistributive expropriation, and not his beatitude the @Pontifex. pic.twitter.com/UoWJcURHJR Permalink 3:00 AM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4) We are tired of people who want to “do good” the easy way: by destroying the world while collecting a salary. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/904744034673061888   Permalink 12:44 PM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3) I am afraid that the only places that will be functional in ten years are small states that tasted socialism hence vaccinated (& are small enough for scaling), e.g. Georgia, Croatia, Hungary, Czech R, Slovenia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Baltic states, … Permalink 11:13 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2) Those who cause disasters judge themselves by the intentions not by the outcome. ( Socialists will blow us up.) + “First, do no harm” (primum non nocere): the most robust way for the world to get better. + No virtue without courage… https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Alas people have done more harm while trying to “do good” and trying to “improve” the world than by trying to pursue their selfish aims while leaving others alone. Silver rule>> Messianism #vianegativa (Orthodox theology) #naiveinterventionism #virtuesignaling https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1063771232129101824   Permalink 9:26 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t realize he must dump the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria; this support will eventually be his Russian campaign. Permalink 1:45 PM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb SHOCKING! These people http://Optionsellers.com   who blew up were citing me and The Black Swan to propose … selling TAIL options. Unbelievable. Exactly the opposite of what I write. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/XBDoRs0Jya”>  pic.twitter.com/XBDoRs0Jya Permalink 12:41 PM – 17 Nov 2018

Rabah, Minority Rule, Tesla, Fake Squid Ink, Start a Business, Tracy Alloway, UK Thought Police, Sarsour, Monbiot | Twitter

@nntaleb Done! Changed subtitle again. Now copyediting & fight with copyeditors… pic.twitter.com/jZaathaYVD Permalink 3:03 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah, it seems isn’t just fabricating w/events but faking his resumé. Are others in the chain s.a. @jobahout @BenteScheller also liars? Permalink 1:42 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah, he who lies once is unreliable. Looks like you also misrepresenting your position? Are you a “professor”? https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=i7xThEIAAAAJ&hl=en   Permalink 1:22 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb G., we know Mr Rabah is tot. unreliable, even lunatic. Make the house of cards collapse w/those using him as source.https://twitter.com/GeorgeJNasr/status/908056627219234816   Permalink 1:06 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah,consider in replies that followers are v. intelligent &detect your unreliability in the chain of Syria newshttps://twitter.com/makramrabah/status/908043824479571968   Permalink 12:39 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb From SITG pic.twitter.com/5kNA2dz5zr Permalink 11:39 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Another “policy” fellow, Joseph Bahout @jobahout (whom I’ve met) at, of all places @CarnegieEndow disseminating from same dubious source. pic.twitter.com/Ig8EYZjFJW Permalink 8:12 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb To show you how messed up our information flow on Syria, see this “policy” specialist @BenteScheller citing a liar. pic.twitter.com/3x6RUEU3Ng Permalink 7:47 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Now that I am done with Mr Makram Rabah (see thread above) beware that his posts and journalism are read as source on the Syrian situation. Permalink 7:03 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Now that I am done with Mr Makram Rabah (see thread above) beware that his posts and journalism are read as source on the Syrian situation. Permalink 7:03 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Makram Rabah, pls explain why your journalism shd be read when: 1) You misdefine terms, mislabel & don’t care 2) You make up facts Permalink 6:37 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb To assess you need to compare # killed while on autopilot vs # killed w/o autopilot, not just look at one single lurid case.https://twitter.com/gedownie/status/907957444331966471   Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, my participation in the UAE literary festival was pro-bono. Why are you lying about $$? Why are you a Liar? Liar. Permalink 6:15 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, why does your inability to define terms makes you LIE about “Gulf money”? Can you show evidence of $$? Why are you lying? Permalink 6:11 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Scary if true. Looks like it is true.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/907941612625518593   Permalink 5:22 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah are you aware that random labels do not constitute an explanation of why you misdefine very elementary terms? Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah you are throwing more random labels to explain the misuse of a label. Can you write down a simple expl., as in 6th grade? Permalink 4:24 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah you are not explaining why one shd heed someone like you or @iyad_elbaghdadi soooo ignorant to misdefine elementary terms. Permalink 4:16 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb So Mr @makramrabah if you mislabel something so elementary, why should anyone read your other crap? Please explain. Permalink 1:49 PM – 12 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, racism is imparting skills to a race, not studying population migrations. Are all Syrian rebels as ignorant as you? Permalink 1:18 PM – 12 Sep 2017

@RogueRad Why I think doctors should read books by @nntaleb http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2017/09/12/why-doctors-should-read-books-by-nassim-taleb/   cc @drjohnm Permalink 10:34 AM – 12 Sep 2017

@nntaleb If you reject unfounded blame, you must also reject unjustified praise. Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Sep 2017

@RandPaul Where is the anti-war left demanding the wars end? Where is the constitional conservative right demanding Congress reclaim its war powers? Permalink 4:25 PM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb On my wayhttps://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/906555847219859459   Permalink 12:31 PM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My take pic.twitter.com/Z3o48RcMvK Permalink 4:57 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Probability Brain Teaser du Jour. cc:@mikeandallie ,@LorenzoWVilla , @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/Uj3p2K2VvJ Permalink 4:27 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@SameeraKhan While we mourn the lives lost 16 yrs ago today, we should also remind ourselves of this gem. Stop funding, arming, & glorifying terrorists. pic.twitter.com/JC1wCl3D9o Permalink 2:39 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@ThomasSowell Quote from Black Rednecks & White Liberals: https://buff.ly/2vk1w8R   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cGIAkn16UA”>  pic.twitter.com/cGIAkn16UA Permalink 10:03 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb When the beard is black, take the reasoning, ignore conclusions. When gray, take both reasoning & conclusions. When white, just conclusions. Permalink 8:18 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Someone in population genetics wd detect the J2 haplogroup, the “Med” gene. I suspect the J2a subclade, coatal (Greco-Phoenician-Roman Army) Permalink 5:11 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My kind of party. Mare Nostrum.https://twitter.com/scaramucci/status/906600491307687937   Permalink 7:32 PM – 9 Sep 2017

@HarryDCrane Full slate for this year’s Foundations of #Probability seminar starting Mon with @nntaleb — Central problems with probability pic.twitter.com/VbJ6k7fN5H Permalink 9:32 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Above & below shd explain why recent paper on 1200+ genes determining intelligence is utter BS cc:@charlesmurrayhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/padzf3mtekuuf76/Error%20and%20Dimensionality.pptx.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 6:02 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Friends, added an Appendix to the minority rule. For comments. Is it easy to grasp? pic.twitter.com/J0fCc91wf5 Permalink 5:31 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 6) You can do history but one needs to qualify conclusions & exclude some class of statements. Permalink 8:19 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 4) Historians have no clue about survivorship bias, so they mistake visible properties for properties. 5) Historians ignore asymmetries. Permalink 8:18 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Historians mistake an upper/lower bound for an absolute date. For instance “earliest settlement found” for earliest settlement” Permalink 7:53 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Practically all data prior to the first war are suspicious. Permalink 7:47 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb War data are pulled out of the hat. Historians are only reliable for (some) anecdotes. Or as we saw with Mary Beard, good at bu***tting.https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/906147773384404992   Permalink 7:14 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This fraudster Julie Gunlock starts from the basis that anti-GMO is anti-science. Not just clueless but dangerous. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/FDRLST/status/905966418063130624   Permalink 6:39 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, wuss! It’s unethical.They will do it to others Select a random few(5) who made false claims,make their lives miserable for 1y Never stop https://twitter.com/TolstoySays/status/905956048778887168   Permalink 6:30 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@NoArtInPolitics Headline sounds like something @nntaleb might sayhttps://twitter.com/wsj/status/905933745529737216   Permalink 4:29 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Clear evidence of (statistical) bias Can be attributed to 1) NYT doctors up the list, 2) NYT overweighs cappuccino & latte bookstores.https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/905852971233288192   Permalink 11:11 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mechanical skills matter less interpreted as Germans have no mechamical skills. In Fooled by Randomness: there is randomness -> itsallrandom Permalink 10:09 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb For a chief investment officer, Mark Yusko makes a 6-year old misinterpretation. Is this typical or an outlier?https://twitter.com/markyusko/status/905836528185643008   Permalink 10:06 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@iMetaldog ex ancillary parts for proper engine functionality there are smaller # of moving part in EM v ICE tho not apple to apple comp to begin with! pic.twitter.com/Uk3SbS8irD Permalink 9:30 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Expertise in roulette gambling requires much more probability than carpentry; Pop genetics require much more probability than biology! Permalink 7:22 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Announcement. For personal reasons, we had to move the Real World Risk 6 to November 13. http://realworldrisk.com/pictorial_view_of_the_program_by_dhaval   Permalink 6:52 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Have you visited a gas station “when power is down everywhere”?https://twitter.com/SFLTVBossMan/status/905773082249494528   Permalink 5:45 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Tesla is computer w/wheels,~5% of moving parts of BMW Mechanical expertise is archaic. I’ve rarely seen softw/hardware designed in Europe.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/905763378437730305   Permalink 5:14 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Show this to your journo friends (if any) to avoid @tracyalloway’s conflation of “criticism” & strawman deformationhttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 4:41 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@alacunha Have you tried this? Choquinhos com tinta. Baby sepia cooked in ink. Typical of algarve. You have to go there for the real deal pic.twitter.com/2KC7bvjkiT Permalink 5:51 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This is real squid ink, tonight. pic.twitter.com/8yfwikdxwj Permalink 4:44 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Last thing we need to hear is French are Meds. They are Reverse-Meds. Only Meds in S. parts that spoke no French (Provencal, Nicois, etc.) Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb There is a discussion of taboos against mixing fish and cheese in Med. I am still confused. https://www.facebook.com/13012333374/posts/10153194618113375   Permalink 2:11 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My kind of lecture.https://twitter.com/_youhadonejob1/status/905424652595494912   Permalink 1:39 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, no, no, no. Never, never any cheese on Med with fish products. You get deported from Sicily/Calabria (if you are lucky).https://twitter.com/mikaelv80/status/905520302452596736   Permalink 1:27 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Those who believe clmate chnge is real Those who explain everything by CC Those for whom policies shdbe precautionary whether CC real or not Permalink 10:27 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 1-Occupations in which one is more dependent on opinion of colleagues than end users or axiomatic base (math) end up rotting. (#SummarySITG) Permalink 7:12 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 1-Occupations in which one is more dependent on opinion of colleagues than end users degrades. ex: journalism, bureaucr, (#SummarySITG) Permalink 7:06 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Zeus appreciated my sacrifices; is making my wish come true that MSM self-destructs. He invented @kurteichenwald to accelerate the process. pic.twitter.com/MGLTCW6ks9 Permalink 6:19 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@DemosKypros Istanbul pogroms against the Greeks – 6-7 September ’55 #Greece #Turkey #Historyhttp://bit.ly/2gGmDb5   Permalink 6:03 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@HaroonChowdry We need clearer language to help distinguish. “Squid ink pasta” (i.e. squid ink in the pasta dough) vs. “pasta w/ squid ink sauce” Permalink 5:59 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Alert: This is fake squid ink (colored pasta). Real squid ink leaves stain marks on the dish.https://twitter.com/simoncarucci/status/905395836623970304   Permalink 4:49 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Will @kurteichenwald’s climate change “math” also prove a Trump-Russian conspiracy as is; or does it need additional variables?https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/905206621588119552   Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The whole point is that this is not “criticism”. Strawman is NOT criticism. Permalink 3:55 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@Wataizo This Eichenwald character better hope @nntaleb doesn’t get a hold of himhttps://twitter.com/Black999sunday/status/905160233906970624   Permalink 1:12 PM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Certainly @tracyalloway needs a straightforward lesson on the difference between news and fake news.https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 12:54 PM – 5 Sep 2017

@ArgaizR New paper @Cell_Metabolism. Beautiful example of anti-fragility. Volatility yields the best results! @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/8nTvxgEmvT Permalink 11:12 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb How @tracyalloway rigs her votehttps://twitter.com/robinwigg/status/905080835031883778   Permalink 7:52 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb There is more substance/rigor in every line of the INCERTO than what journo @tracyalloway has written all her life https://medium.com/incerto   Permalink 7:21 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Got rich FROM politics +Helped crony capitalism +… Permalink 6:46 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Gave Wall Street the largest bonus pool in history in 2010 +Fought Skin in the Game rules +Fueled Identity Politics +Fed the IYI class Permalink 6:44 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Helped AlQaeda/extinction of NE Christians +Tried to destroy federalism +Let IYI bureaucrats “nudge” citizens +Overall enemy of libertyhttps://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/905059454554693632   Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I am calling Ron Paul, “A Roman among Greeks”. (a Pun on dedication of TBS to Benoit Mandelbrot:”A Greek among Romans”) pic.twitter.com/qs6j8V1H0k Permalink 5:53 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb For ergodicity and wealth, see this https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Which is whatIwantedtotalktoyouabout Permalink 5:43 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb I am shuttling from Leb to NY for my Tuesday class. Today is my 1rst lecture on Fat Tails.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/821374183234031616   Permalink 5:01 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb “The Romans judged their political system by asking not whether it made sense but whether it worked.” The clear minded @holland_tom Permalink 4:27 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Some idiot (finance prof) was arguing “had Trump invested his inheritance in market…” No, investors != market!https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 4:17 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, do not join an NGO to save the world. Just take risks, start a business. https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/taRzkoCSfw”>  pic.twitter.com/taRzkoCSfw Permalink 9:32 AM – 4 Sep 2017

@nntaleb BS vendor @JeffDSachs tweeting to me a narrative betw. Houston flood & Texas climate policy. Economists have a severe difficulty with rigor. Permalink 5:52 AM – 4 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Connecting in an airport lounge in Morocco. Only way I get privacy on phone is speaking in Lebanese dialect. Nobody seems to understand it. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Sep 2017

@bjmdolal @nntaleb only person I can think of that this applies to.https://twitter.com/robertgreene/status/902156853823623168   Permalink 7:10 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This guy gets it. The value of the lawsuit is in the information you can get out of it. As with the Monsanto papers.https://twitter.com/ConLawWarrior/status/904110967738466308   Permalink 4:02 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Meanwhile my fight ag the UK thought police: I keep insulting them; they tried & tried & tried & failed to stop me, https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-is-broken-in-the-uk-intellectual-sphere-7efc9a1f154a   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/CI0AuYqMoR”>  pic.twitter.com/CI0AuYqMoR Permalink 3:58 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Nothing sad about it. Lawsuits are the ONLY defense mechanism for the individual against powerful groups. Thank you, American legal system!https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/904108850596515842   Permalink 3:39 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb You need tail events for the revelation of elementary properties. Visibly only the store knew that people didn’t eat vegan.https://twitter.com/MattOswaltVA/status/903834627768324096   Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@AD_WHITMAN Roll your big a** down to Venezuela for a year. Come back and tell me how the #VenezuelaDiet (starving due to socialism) worked out for you. pic.twitter.com/r0UUqv4sJC Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@VergilDen “Not everything happens for a reason but everything that survives, survives for a reason” NNT Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Exccccccccellent question. Lindy being a noise filtering mechanism lowers every year the probability of spurious survival.https://twitter.com/DoctorLex/status/904000010899132416   Permalink 8:52 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb People were not getting that the (alleged) food costs savings by GMOs (at huge risks) were DWARFED by more efficient food distribution. Permalink 7:39 PM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Bezos got that distrib =up to 83% food costs. Focus on distr, not risky “tech” product. Organic cheaper, GMO dead.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-01/amazon-has-twice-many-fulfillment-centers-rest-entire-us-retail-industry   Permalink 7:32 PM – 1 Sep 2017

@GuruAnaerobic “No BS Trader” @nntaleb vs IYI academic, BBC luvvie, “diversity”, imbecillo-bullshito-classico pic.twitter.com/pIuBtauDkv Permalink 8:04 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Friday Semitic Philology. RE @lsarsour: Sarsour means “pimp” in mod. Hebrew frm Aramaic סַרְסוּר (with a Samekh), Cricket with a Tsadeh. pic.twitter.com/wdguyqOlJr Permalink 7:16 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb When someone makes an announcement saying “I have a great relationship with my wife”, you know a divorce is getting close.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/903614451999539200   Permalink 6:50 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Sarsour means cockroach in Arabic. It is very, very unfair to cockroaches.https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/903593280822173698   Permalink 5:22 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@normonics Classic @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/4uru8Ol6bB Permalink 6:26 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb We think alike on this @rorysutherland pic.twitter.com/e242tAeIva Permalink 6:16 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I like to buy products made by egomaniac people. Or, at least people called arrogant. pic.twitter.com/c8W09vsfIK Permalink 6:11 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 13 Coffee Shops Around Phoenicia That Will Charm You https://www.beirut.com/l/52816   via @BeirutCityGuide Permalink 4:58 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Some marketing/framing savvy pple figured out that the most effective way to build a fascist movement is to call it: antifascist. Permalink 1:08 AM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Problem w/academic parasites isn’t just disconnect from the real world; it’s their lack of awareness of it. #SkinInTheGamehttps://twitter.com/drtomflynn/status/902647984000827392   Permalink 12:48 AM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Now if I called Monbiot an idiot, it is because of his promoting AlQaeda propaganda abt the Syrian war & fake stories abt Aleppo. Permalink 8:35 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My idea is to WORRY about our actions on climate out of PRECAUTION, not systematically attribute events to it. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 6:31 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb From Silent Risk: the Lucretius problem. People don’t realize that systems deliver new maxima. pic.twitter.com/xtu5tLeNIp Permalink 5:48 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Point is that idiots like @GeorgeMonbiot are attributing Houston floods to Climate Change, rather than bad understanding of tail probability Permalink 4:59 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Think tanks are natural lobbies w/a facade of “research” Their cover allows them to censor dissent from monoculturehttps://nyti.ms/2whLSts   Permalink 4:43 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nero di seppia ( spaghetti con farro) pic.twitter.com/Hw5yOavHMY Permalink 5:39 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Chapters frm nxt book If the author doesn’t surprise the reader w/something every few pages, books & authors diehttps://medium.com/incerto   Permalink 3:28 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb When people talk about 500 y floods or 100 year rain, they are klueless abt tail distribution. The empirical distribution is NOT empirical! pic.twitter.com/XdrLf1gfgN Permalink 1:40 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I have never read #Antifragile under olive trees. I will try next week.https://twitter.com/petranovskaja/status/901747046113304576   Permalink 12:31 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Another benefit of Brexit seen 5 years ago in Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/tophtucker/status/902595164669177860   Permalink 11:35 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb No, and it is not a violation of the First Am. if I block people like you who tweet stupid things to me; private workspace != public. Permalink 6:54 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Freedom of Expression is a central UNCONDITIONAL symmetry: You are allowed speech if I am allowed speech pic.twitter.com/iWeGP21DcO Permalink 6:18 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Main MARKER for group to be fascist-shmascist-smthng_ist regardless of what they call themselves left/right/diagonal: Public Expression Permalink 5:51 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The very idea of freedom of expression is to allow someone to tell others things they do not like to hear. Permalink 5:24 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words, see the surviving population after n generations, here 21 & compare to common processes. Permalink 6:15 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Trying to dabble w/population genetics under fat tails! So far, some intuitions. Some work for us, @DrCirillo cc: @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/zXsGCmow6O Permalink 6:12 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Free speech is so robust intellectually that arguments to try to suspend it are inconsistent w/one another & the rest of the corpus.https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/902252554154762240   Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb E bella la lingua italiana: “Chi troppo in alto sal cade sovente precipitevolissimevolmente” Permalink 12:51 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Letting someone w a razor is a sign of trust. Permalink 7:09 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Kalabrez’ lesson facima a barba curazol’ pic.twitter.com/73G2rDaIZ6 Permalink 7:07 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This problem came out of the statement (as generalization) that: P/E ratio of the market != weighted average P/E ratio of ind companies.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/902047463351177216   Permalink 5:43 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Journalist Interrogated, Fired For Story Linking CIA And Syria Weapons Flights | Zero Hedgehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-28/journalist-interrogated-fired-story-linking-cia-and-syria-weapons-flights   Permalink 5:23 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “…nec alte cadere nec graviter potest” Publilius Permalink 5:20 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you want to punish an enemy, help put him on a pedestal. He will hurt himself falling from it. Permalink 4:57 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@JohnJSSoriano .@nntaleb has explained this well. Can’t make projection of worst case based on previous worst event. Wouldn’t have worked for prev event!https://twitter.com/stealthygeek/status/901885696075542531   Permalink 7:05 PM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 2:37 PM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Added to The Logic of Risk Taking. People w skin in the game who take risks don’t like tail risk. https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Bah4FJsiFZ”>  pic.twitter.com/Bah4FJsiFZ Permalink 7:35 AM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Explains that such probability-risk experiments assume the person will never take risks again. https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/U0dq3iSBeQ”>  pic.twitter.com/U0dq3iSBeQ Permalink 12:17 PM – 26 Aug 2017

@obradovits1 @nntaleb ‘s def of ergodicity is consistent with what I lrnt during my pstgrad stdies. However, @nntaleb provides a new way to thnk. abt it.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/901507397755297792   Permalink 11:31 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This imbecile is digging deeper, using a …1928 def. Mr Ma cKenzie go back to doing what you do and let other people on twitter work. pic.twitter.com/X3UuAJHcfv Permalink 11:11 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The sign of a failed academic is referring to his “thesis” as contribution. Perhaps @ole_b_peters can answer you what is meant by ergodicity Permalink 10:22 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@ole_b_peters Spot-on. Meaningless experiments. Insurance benefits buyer and seller over time, not across the ensemble. http://bit.ly/2s1JuD4   Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In which a Microsoft person bull***ts abt work he never read & concepts he knows nothing abt.https://twitter.com/mknz/status/901479974724554756   Permalink 9:52 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes. (Cutting through the BS in social science) pic.twitter.com/1FZF8TxqCM Permalink 9:01 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words: risk aversion is what is needed to make things ergodic.https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 8:55 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “Risk Aversion” is fictional nonsense to employ psychologists. https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EEjUViSaL7″>  pic.twitter.com/EEjUViSaL7 Permalink 8:54 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb LOCALISM “At Fed level, libertarian; state, Republican; local, Democrat; family/friends, socialist.” @geoffreydgraham citing broth. Vincent. Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@mikeandallie A algebra / geometry project for kids inspired by @nntaleb and @CutTheKnotMath : https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/08/26/a-project-for-kids-inspired-by-nassim-taleb-and-alexander-bogomolny/   #math #mathchat cc: @KelseyAHE Permalink 6:21 AM – 26 Aug 2017

Atlanta, Borat, Minority Rule, Monsanto, Ergodicity, Revolutions, Rationality, Armenians, Betrayal, Tesla, Fermat, @GadSaad | Twitter

@nntaleb OK OK La Grotta pic.twitter.com/2aFM44a2dW Permalink 5:47 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 75% of @newtgingrich’s book (from page 80 on) revolves around the Intellectual Yet Idiot IYI problem.https://twitter.com/AlexPappas/status/901171827799719936   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta coffee conversation w/ @geoffreydgraham @justinno @WhiteSwanof87 @su_js1 (a lot of coffee). pic.twitter.com/oLB5ayZFOR Permalink 10:10 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Logic of Risk Taking”https://medium.com/p/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Rephrase her question to “how many Greco-Roman classics were written by nonWhites” to”How many were written by blonds & nonMeds”.About zero. Permalink 3:08 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@lilbabykeffiyeh @nntaleb might have knowledge on this. Permalink 8:59 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@KennyAngel11 Nassim Taleb looked like Borathttps://abbeylink.wordpress.com/2017/08/24/nassim-taleb-looked-like-borat/   Permalink 12:54 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy Geopolitical Institutions conflate relations between countries with relations between governments @nntalebhttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 9:43 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Languages mutate. We can watch the process of mutation with out own eyes.https://twitter.com/BrittPettibone/status/900707817606094848   Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 2) People don’t get is that you don’t assess a car by *speed* but *change* in speed. (Second order effect, convexity = antifragile) Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Minority Rule actually debunks the Aryan vs Semitic theory. Meds are Meds, Nordics are Nordics https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fZYFV1dvUv”>  pic.twitter.com/fZYFV1dvUv Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta. Any recommendations? Squid ink, etc. Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you want people to pay close attention to your posts, block them on Twitter. Permalink 2:58 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fr: un clou en chasse un autre. Permalink 1:53 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Not a very good day to be Monsanto. An Italian proverb: one needs a nail to displace a nail. Companies, not govt, remove bad apples.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/900454905554579456   Permalink 1:43 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question. Permalink 12:57 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy History is largely peace punctuated by wars, rather than wars punctuated by peace @nntaleb cc: @SebGorkahttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Common sense wd say that if in the past censorship was seen as a thing of the “right”, those we really need to worry will be on the “left”https://twitter.com/julianassange/status/900308121024954370   Permalink 10:23 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Main advantage of Tesla: for daily life, we benefit more from acceleration (for safety) than max speed, since there are speed limits.https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/900106814187950081   Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@rmnth “I can use data to disprove a proposition, never to prove one.” ~ @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/ProfFeynman/status/900388591259353092   Permalink 9:17 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The bon pensant Cambridge dons… pic.twitter.com/NLnWyAbipV Permalink 5:57 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The central chapter of Skin in the Game: explaining ergodicity @ole_b_peters Is it easy to get? pic.twitter.com/g6dVDSRILG Permalink 2:18 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@HarrisonSearles The American empire cannot impose a top-down peace on Afghanistan. Peace can only come bottom-up. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   via @nntaleb Permalink 12:22 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Logical/statistical error: Revolutions are preceded by resentment, but resentment not nec. followed by revolutions. see #FooledbyRandomnesshttps://twitter.com/alrik3/status/900055165713166337   Permalink 11:13 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb For years I have refused to f. spell expletives in my book, e.g. “f*** you money”, etc. From now on, for consistency, will do so on Twitter. Permalink 10:49 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb She is using Twitter, and, I surmise, a computer and, I also surmise, software.https://twitter.com/greenwoodae/status/900033287648714752   Permalink 9:38 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Problem of the education system: bitter college profs & parasites of the system drill into the head of people that wealth = explotationhttps://twitter.com/DougMartin17/status/900028062200475649   Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There should be no privilege for being wealthy. But there should be no shame, no guilt for being wealthy.https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/899989870478856192   Permalink 8:57 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I support @PamelaGeller w/her censorship by PayPal. But she is v. IGNORANT: unlike Salafis, Shiites don’t Christians/Jews as “infidels”. Permalink 8:09 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb BS Busting Du Jour: More fundamental mistakes in Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci high noise /no signal account.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 7:34 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Arabic name for Med was “Baḣr er-Rum”, Roman(Byzantine) sea. Like Persian (->”Arabian”) Gulf, censored from textbooks. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@ExoThinker Your daily does of WTF: Nassim Taleb and other nerds discussing Talmud and Aramaic.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/899267232542453760   Permalink 10:50 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”https://medium.com/p/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”https://medium.com/p/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Is there a Ashura expert in the room? I wonder if my diacritical are right for the poem about skin in the game. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/8uXC3gnhJ4 Permalink 1:48 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Challenge a BSvendorusingscience who uses eclipse to make us believe we know climate: Predict temperature in NYC at 12:PM Oct 21 2017https://twitter.com/MuhammedKambal/status/899718155483979776   Permalink 12:53 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Typo! pic.twitter.com/718kTSNTTg Permalink 11:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb LESSON Looking like a “victim” will enbolden your enemies & make your cowardly friends look the other way. Wusses are never good to losers Permalink 10:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Quiz du jour a la @CutTheKnotMath @LorenzoWVilla pic.twitter.com/eSYgojapcs Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Incidentally, classical Arabic has a word, Wiq7, for both rude and right. Permalink 8:56 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@John07331405 It does mean u are rude, I think u are pretty rude. I also think you are right about everything (xcpt some comment a long tm ago about Eire) Permalink 8:24 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Average price/ average earnings != Average( If E>0, P/E)https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/899647893379756032   Permalink 8:17 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I don’t understand English Middle Class English. What does “You are rude” mean? Permalink 7:57 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In Levantine, 3a “to” is from Aramaic or older N Semitic. Arabic/ South Semitic equivalent is “ila”, similar to Heb “la”.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/899605015731601409   Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mary Beard retweets n accusations of “misogyny” & articles in press & claims she never accused me of “misogyny” Historians shdn’t Fabricate! Permalink 5:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This should refresh your memory. For a “historian”, you keep being caught with misrepresentations. pic.twitter.com/Wv4SlVoYoV Permalink 5:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@DaronLarson “Being nice to others reveals character if and only if it is optional.” @nntaleb #kindness #magnanimity Permalink 5:00 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb NOTHING academic in calling pple “misogynists” for dissenting, using Lewinski/Rowling & misrepresenting debate @wmarybeard you’re a shamhttps://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/899597706020007936   Permalink 4:52 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@jasperhamill I’ve seen people’s apologies used against them. Say sorry and you prove your guilt eternally. There is no forgiveness. Permalink 3:58 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Lesson I leared from UK thoughtnazis. Appease/correct them w/”I am not saying…”; they destroy you Be aggressive, disrespect: they freakout Permalink 3:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Evidence it is skin ink: stain on plates (and on your teeth), uneven coloring. Otherwise it is just dyed pasta.https://twitter.com/VinceBSbuster/status/899578318701416448   Permalink 3:28 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb A project is needed to bring back North Africa to its preArab Mediterranean kultchurhttps://twitter.com/xhos1982/status/899383122009223168   Permalink 2:34 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The patch in Northern Syria is gone. Because Obama. MSM are despicable. pic.twitter.com/ZdXdzpQHm9 Permalink 1:52 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Armenians have been victim of a second ethnic cleansing in Aleppo by Obama’s “rebels”. You need to call things by their name.https://twitter.com/humanitasromana/status/899370286231040002   Permalink 1:50 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Ron Paul @RonPaul Permalink 11:09 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Donald Trump’s @realDonaldTrump irreversible mistake: betrayal. You can recover from many mistakes. Betrayal you can only do once. Permalink 10:24 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Trying to explain what people don’t get about decentralization, why I loved Brexit! pic.twitter.com/QR87nNHHex Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Then here mistranslated should be “when a puny man kills a hero” pic.twitter.com/2gPFBzxVwa Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game is not literal, Bava Kama 84a 3ayn ta7ata 3ayn (incidentally, in Aramaic) pic.twitter.com/INkXFj60jT Permalink 6:49 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Unlike Klueless Massimo BSing on scientism, we ACTUALLY looked at what historical data can & cannot say. @DrCirillo https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Klueless Massimo doesn’t even know what SCIENTISM is. By masturbating w/other philosophers one can’t understand anything in the real world. Permalink 6:04 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My motto has always been: Debate the audience, not the person. Don’t even try to convince someone that he or she is wrong. Permalink 6:02 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Neither Antisemitic Nordic Supremacists Nor Arab Nationalists Will Like”https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@zzap Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s recent interview on work, slavery, and skin in the game on @EconTalker is sO good http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/08/nassim_nicholas_1.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8xDPmmMB11″>  pic.twitter.com/8xDPmmMB11 Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb One shall not use science outside the strict domains it itself defines. pic.twitter.com/4RrD9t9vQJ Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “In investments, better to sell out one year too early than one day too late.” My friend and banker Joe Audi Permalink 1:53 PM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why Ibn Khaldoun is not banned in Arabian countries? pic.twitter.com/LI5aSQQTXX Permalink 9:14 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@CharlieHoefer Nassim’s Aryan twitter followers are not happy with him this morning… Permalink 8:58 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb – L’intolleranza vince sempre: il dispotismo della minoranza http://wp.me/p56cLj-3eK   @vocidallestero Permalink 7:47 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb First week of @TeslaMotors. Great to have a gas station at home. MAIN DRAWBACK: no squeegee of windshield when you refill ! pic.twitter.com/JjpE9udB2Z Permalink 7:29 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Lebanese Arabists & Arab Nationalists Will Not Like”.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, point is Phoenicians were genetically close to Greeks. Are all other “White” Supremacists as stupid as you ? Permalink 6:02 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Nordic Supremacists Will Not Like”https://medium.com/p/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 5:28 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Catholic MEANS secular.https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 3:53 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You can see what killed Mediterraneanism, right there.https://twitter.com/BrilliantMaps/status/898850780333133824   Permalink 3:44 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Even his email was disabled by Google.https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/898730013037477889   Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Of course there are other options, s.a. Burkean “small c”, etc. But that’s not what I am trying to figure out. Permalink 6:37 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb MSM lies, smear Bannon. Bannon was against warmongers! In Syria, Afghanistan, etc. I vouch! He hates INTERVENTIONISTAS w/o #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/ezlmu9dsqC Permalink 4:09 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mediterraneanism pic.twitter.com/1SQaFR4KDc Permalink 3:44 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Which group best represent your political “orientation”? Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Was asked if am “right” or “left” +No power over citizens, neither Gov nor Corps +Local >Global (Federalism) +particular >Universal +1st Am. Permalink 9:49 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb How to make a weapons lobbying slush fund. No wonder @MiddleEastInst loves war in Syria. https://interc.pt/2vGw0jK   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qpdZQx1Y7I”>  pic.twitter.com/qpdZQx1Y7I Permalink 8:39 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb An illustration of the BIAS-VARIANCE tradeoff or why in some situations being “wrong” is better than being imprecise. (Superstitions) pic.twitter.com/GCSoTGcBg3 Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You detect Monsanto shills such as Folta (aside frm recent proof of payments): they supports BOTH GMOs & Glyphosate What connects the 2? Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There is nothing IRRATIONAL per se in “believing” in SANTA CLAUS @rorysutherland pic.twitter.com/MJyyRZlzAd Permalink 5:07 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Why “rationality” as described by unrigorous BS vendors is not compatible with axioms of rationality. No rationality without #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/KwD3IpnqFN Permalink 4:58 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fermat was an amateur, a side activity (he was a lawyer by day). He would have loved the endless supply of brainteasers from @CutTheKnotMathhttps://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/898216622447624192   Permalink 3:18 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Bye2tol 2el 2atil wbyemshe bi-jnezto “He murders then attends the funeral of his victims”https://twitter.com/alarabiya_eng/status/898268838239899649   Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mr Bianchi @WhitesPhD, no ad hominem for “Finance professors” is for bullshitters who 1) can’t “do”& trade, 2) can’t be scientists. Gabish? Permalink 1:01 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Notice that it was not terrorists but a van attacking people in #Barcelona. pic.twitter.com/L4VZC56BJY Permalink 11:23 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Salute to @GadSaad for having the highest of virtues: frankness & intellectual courage. Let’s support him in his fight for freedom of speech Permalink 10:17 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Living with an oversensitive BS detector pic.twitter.com/EwrehX7oLS Permalink 8:32 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “Would”. Same academics who were certain that “If Trump were elected…”https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/898202340791992320   Permalink 8:20 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@normonics is this about it? pic.twitter.com/NwKMvNenSS Permalink 7:15 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@tolzasso media bias: turn the discussion about representativeness in populations into a sexist attack by @nntaleb #wtfhttps://goo.gl/9741Fz   Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asinum fricat = الطنجرة لاقت غطاها Permalink 5:51 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asimum fricate, or, in Fat Tony’s language: bullshitter supports bullshitter.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/896025438694367233   Permalink 5:24 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words, it increases distances when they are small, and decrease the larger ones… Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Something about PCA analyses: they preserve order but may not scale distances properly, compared to differential entropy. @iosif_lazaridis pic.twitter.com/HYFVz4zI6L Permalink 5:00 AM – 17 Aug 2017

Homeopathy, Monsanto, Tesla, Mary Beard, Haplogroup, GMOs, Middle East Institute, Damore, Pigliucci, Mike Duncan | Twitter

@Helsingor Happy Rûm day to @byzantium1200, @byzantinepower, @byzyeileen, @nntaleb, @CryForByzantium and all of Byzantine twitter.https://twitter.com/AHMalcolm/status/897926213477347329   Permalink 2:06 PM – 16 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Homeopathy is useful PRECISELY because it doesn’t work. Can homeopathy can HELP the NHS? http://dailym.ai/1srK3Fo   via @MailOnline Permalink 12:32 PM – 16 Aug 2017

@mjd1735 BBC News – Awamiya: Inside the devastated Saudi Shia town http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-40950353/awamiya-inside-the-devastated-saudi-shia-town   @nntaleb @lionelbarber Permalink 8:45 AM – 16 Aug 2017

@KevorkAlmassian Says the guy who funded & armed religious fascists in my country, #Syria. @BarackObama pic.twitter.com/aCPq8cZNbn Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If journos talk about a risk, say Nuclear, ignore it.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V7W46sOt38   Permalink 4:35 AM – 16 Aug 2017

@byzantinepower pic.twitter.com/vftDoELvTY Permalink 4:24 AM – 16 Aug 2017

@nntaleb A convincing illustration of what happens when you put nerds (IYIs) in charge of regulation. pic.twitter.com/4xu1eZfpXo Permalink 3:48 PM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony explaining how “f*** you” money works in case Monsanto & Cambridge University are after you.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdfeXqHFmPI   Permalink 2:27 PM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Monsanto’s St Op Procedure: an online army demonizes GMO-skeptics. They also contact institutions & ask for removal, as they did w/Ceralini.https://twitter.com/luciansusanu/status/897459026975436800   Permalink 7:16 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@theQSLman .@nntaleb on procrastination. Superb insight. pic.twitter.com/RdRc7Y2RDh Permalink 7:06 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@theQSLmind .@nntaleb on procrastination. Superb insight. pic.twitter.com/RdRc7Y2RDh Permalink 7:06 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb So the British IYI pseudodiversity police were instantly turned into a Monsanto smear campaigning agent Union of 2 idiots is much more idiot Permalink 5:19 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb British IYI class is after me. Monsanto shills (@kevinFolta) join the smear campaign (since 2015, 2300 emails to NYU). Impotent #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/RMZ7oVd2pl Permalink 5:03 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The exquisite precision & instant response (for both acceleration and deceleration) of the EV makes the non-electric car feel like a boat. Permalink 4:07 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This picture is more representative https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rlvb14HnUB”>  pic.twitter.com/rlvb14HnUB Permalink 3:34 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the ‘diversity’ operators”https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 3:32 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb First day driving a @TeslaMotors. Something else! I hope I will never ever have to drive a nonelectric car. Permalink 3:22 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@SimonMoores I really don’t think people are grasping what @nntaleb argument is. It’s really about the anc. population of http://N.Africa   Permalink 3:07 AM – 15 Aug 2017

@nntaleb US Army embraces Antifragility http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/security-force-assistance-brigades-the-us-army-embraces-antifragility   Permalink 5:52 PM – 14 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game | EconTalk |http://bit.ly/2vDpWqR   Permalink 3:36 PM – 14 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nobody is seeing what I am seeing? This piece of info,hapl of Ancient Greeks v. close to Canaanites? While linear b nonsemitic! Huge if truehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/897031793240625152   Permalink 2:15 PM – 14 Aug 2017

@careygillam “Monsanto’s message is clear – stay out of its way,” say cancer victim lawyers @MonsantoCo wants sanctioned https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Andrus-Wagstaff-response-on-release-of-Monsanto-dox.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/p6duzdL9Wk”>  pic.twitter.com/p6duzdL9Wk Permalink 1:18 PM – 14 Aug 2017

@RanaHarbi What the f did I just read pic.twitter.com/92cos5rvZj Permalink 11:50 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@normonics The sample space of reality is enormous. Therefore every narrative can be supported by ‘facts’ so long as they are selectively amplified. Permalink 9:39 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@asadabukhalil Look at this language:when he talks about Russian and Syrian repression he uses the world “slaughter”. For Saudis, he uses “excessive” forcehttps://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/896688115892486144   Permalink 9:36 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@Cyberlibris We used to be fooled by randomness, the truth is we are fooled by ergodicity! https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.07773.pdf   @nntaleb @ole_b_peters #BigData #data Permalink 7:37 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@JegErAlan This, thanks to a @JacobWinski tweet, is the link that made me realize I should be skeptical about GMOs: http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/897009908276703232   Permalink 6:33 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Perfect! ABSENCE of haplogroup DOES NOT indicate absence of ancestry, but presence does! Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The insidious racism of Mary Beard et al.”https://medium.com/p/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:20 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@nntaleb From the recent papers abt modern Greeks ~Mycenians, Minoans: G and J2 (even J1) haplogroups. pic.twitter.com/vMOz281dPe Permalink 2:47 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Jordan My data has no ethnicities (Tribal North Arabian, West Bank Palestinian, Circasn, etc.) But again, J1e, 10 times more than Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/aTme3UNIsS Permalink 1:40 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Syria as whole v. different from Leb, owing to high presence of J1e (Peninsula genes) from Arab conquest/trade. No granularity on West. Syr pic.twitter.com/difEdbiGVa Permalink 1:23 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@nntaleb He was also converted to skepticism about GMOs. Thank you, Twitter .https://twitter.com/JegErAlan/status/896932546193346561   Permalink 1:20 AM – 14 Aug 2017

@TheDuran_com Assange NAILS IS!http://theduran.com/julian-assange-asks-us-said-nothing-obama-supported-ukrainian-neo-nazis/   Permalink 2:57 PM – 13 Aug 2017

@nntaleb On plane back to NY tried to play with a messier probabilistic structure in genetics. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/qD14r5Uu4I Permalink 1:10 PM – 13 Aug 2017

@nntaleb History Jumps! An aids for my discussion of probabilistic reasoning for history in my comment on the tirade of Klueless Massimohttps://twitter.com/normonics/status/896820612659912704   Permalink 12:54 PM – 13 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The GMO deception was over the day AMZN bought Whole Foods. AMZN is one order of magnitude bigger than Monsanto, typ. tactics won’t work. Permalink 11:39 AM – 13 Aug 2017

@spikedonline Brendan O’Neill on the poison of racial thinking pic.twitter.com/Cy3JC7Vfql Permalink 11:19 AM – 13 Aug 2017

@RamdasSunder @nntaleb This is Probability, not Stats. Closely related, but a good statistician is not automatically a good probabilist. Permalink 5:09 AM – 13 Aug 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Next time someone criticises Paleo diet cos they only lived til 35yrs, ask them if early death was “diet related” or disease, childbirth,etchttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/896614771973382145   Permalink 12:06 AM – 13 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you are trying to figure out diet, genetics, and lifestyle, uncon LE is not the right measure. Permalink 11:27 PM – 12 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Flawed analysis: You shd only measure longevity by taking life expectancy conditional on being >50-60, not at birthhttp://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20170807-living-in-places-where-people-live-the-longest?ocid=ww.social.link.twitter   Permalink 11:09 PM – 12 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Antifragility World’s oldest man, a Holocaust survivor, dies at 113http://www.wpxi.com/news/world/media-worlds-oldest-man-a-holocaust-survivor-dies-at-113/589276130   Permalink 2:45 PM – 12 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My PhD thesis advisor/coauthor is a French woman mathematician. The committee had 2 women mathematicians. Nobody asked for a quota then.https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/895493873094414336   Permalink 10:26 AM – 12 Aug 2017

@PaleoPhil And here is an example: History Channel’s “Barbarians Rising” portraying Hannibal as a black West African. pic.twitter.com/oY6CXNwTjZ Permalink 9:17 AM – 12 Aug 2017

@Christo59093308 @nntaleb Amazing!! The Black Swan in 2007, 1 yr before financial crisis! And now pg. 205 with mention of potential Syria crisis! #mustread Permalink 6:56 AM – 12 Aug 2017

@nntaleb BTW what Romans used to call “Arabs” were Nabateans, Northern Arabians, close to Jordanians & Hawranis Permalink 2:38 AM – 12 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Romans looked like other Meds at Ancient times: It was the Celts who were ethnic. @holland_tom citing Petronius. pic.twitter.com/aFgXunJ94D Permalink 12:44 AM – 12 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Ran into 2 Amioun-born New Yorkers Trump supporters at a party in Amioun. “If Amioun voted in the US elections, Trump would get 99%” #MAGA pic.twitter.com/gTCiNKvavf Permalink 4:07 PM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Who is @gchoran99 ? Not only he got the point about subsaharan genes but also that “historians are full of crap”.https://twitter.com/hbdchick/status/896139383371317248   Permalink 3:58 PM – 11 Aug 2017

@alxpr1c3 6 pictorials exposing what A LOT, if not MOST, academic text-books are missing: #RIGOUR!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/896005183993294848   Permalink 2:44 PM – 11 Aug 2017

@robertwjordway People say @nntaleb is nice in person but I disagree. He made me split a mini cannoli with him at @NECSI #diabetes Permalink 1:15 PM – 11 Aug 2017

@ghchammas Lebanese steak tartare. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/uqmoGqIBTR Permalink 12:06 PM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Syria most probably comes from the Phoenician name for Anti-Lebanon. So, yes the name “Syria” correponds to 3 geographical areas in history. pic.twitter.com/ZTk3SzPI1s Permalink 10:03 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Also in Bible “Aram” is mentioned by which translations say Syria. But “Syria” doesn’t map to “Aram” & Syrion is ambiguous! Permalink 9:52 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Terms “Syria”, Blad eSham, & Syrion != Greek: Syria coela (Bekaa)+Antioch Syrion in Bible is AntiLebanon (Syrion ve Lvanon) Libanensis pbm Permalink 9:46 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb How to look at history using probabilistic reasoning: Pinned Brownian Bridges. Conditional on present and past, what can midpoints be? pic.twitter.com/NlGZYpEKps Permalink 7:33 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Real World Risk Pictorial Next Session Oct 2-6 http://realworldrisk.com/pictorial_view_of_the_program_by_dhaval   Permalink 6:47 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The problem is not just financial dependence. Wusses fear losing friends & not being invited to the parties if they defy the thoughtpolice. Permalink 6:15 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Amioun for the weekend, 1900 years. pic.twitter.com/aZEJzELsfC Permalink 5:33 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@AntifragileACC @nntaleb Working at a university and trying to shake up academia world! Thank you for all you do to push us! pic.twitter.com/3y6MYcsCxF Permalink 5:14 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb It was also for me a way to show the UK establishment they can’t play with independent people like me without eventually getting burned. Permalink 3:25 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@paulorrj No, basically it started with @wmarybeard being wrong & called out. So, she accused Taleb of sexism because of it.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/something-is-broken-in-the-uk-intellectual-sphere-7efc9a1f154a   Permalink 3:22 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb More precise: Nubians somewhere there. pic.twitter.com/VMc7tNmAfM Permalink 3:20 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Don’t tell me my friend Tom Holland is falling into the Insidious Racism of the UK establishment! pic.twitter.com/rJJyaHkbdx Permalink 3:12 AM – 11 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Precautionary approach to climate. pic.twitter.com/FxW7wAE1u4 Permalink 4:36 PM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Faced that junk in the Air France lounge, JFK. Manager who spoke w/thick Marseilles accent promised to replace w/documentaries on animals. pic.twitter.com/pEB9YnEjgS Permalink 4:33 PM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This is more granularity about Lebanese (all religions) and Armenians pic.twitter.com/aqfwoF0YrI Permalink 1:28 PM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Gulf government gave SECRET $20 million gift to D.C. think tank https://interc.pt/2vQNz1K   by @ryangrim Permalink 1:15 PM – 10 Aug 2017

@JacobWinski Just received The VNR Concise Encyclopedia of Mathematics and it’s wonderful. Thank you @nntaleb for the tip, really appreciate it. pic.twitter.com/C6IgqsVi1F Permalink 10:55 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Thus guy is an intellectual fraud. Nonlinear domains like climate & markets!= mechanics like solar eclipses. If it were true he wd be rich.https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/895634473425014785   Permalink 10:55 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb So we can start the great East Med Peace Project by convincing Turks Cypriots, Greeks (etc.) they are 1st cousins. Permalink 4:42 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony is J2b. So my prediction: Mafia dons are predominantly J2. We can try to test it. Permalink 4:28 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This map confirms my grandmother’s heurisitc: if people eat the same they look the same… and have similar genetic makeup Permalink 4:24 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb And note that the Arab J1e (invaders) subclade is practically non existent in Leb, high in Palestine. Permalink 4:13 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@alexdelprete Giustamente Nassim ci ricorda che il sud italia è Magna Grecia: aplogruppo J2 (18-30%) ed E1b1b (15-25%) http://www.eupedia.com/genetics/italian_dna.shtml  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/895599465381339137   Permalink 4:10 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Also note that Sunnis have about as much J2 as the rest. Permalink 3:58 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This chart will cause a shock to Lebanese national identity. And perhaps Turkish. Note that Southern Italy is also blue (Magna Grecia) pic.twitter.com/J9fsWp8f8E Permalink 3:55 AM – 10 Aug 2017

@nntaleb What SJW don’t get is the implied racism of “white” & “colored”: if you mix white & colored you get colored. That implies purity not race. Permalink 5:30 PM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I was told that traditionally royals shd never say “thank you”, “please”, “sorry”, etc. because you don’t say it to subjects. True? Refs? Permalink 4:00 PM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Turned out in England politeness is something for the middle class. Aristocrats are exempt. Any literature on that? Permalink 2:39 PM – 9 Aug 2017

@MaxAbrahms The problem was meeting him for coffee. Everyone knows you must meet for squid ink or frog legs. Permalink 1:11 PM – 9 Aug 2017

@MaxAbrahms If Twitter teaches you anything…it’s unwise to try to publicly outwit @nntaleb. Permalink 12:38 PM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I am very direct. I asked the doctor; he said can’t do anything about it. So you need to live with it. Permalink 11:57 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Here is 90% of the words used in N Levantine ordinary conv. Most are Ugaritic/Canaanite Also see grammar https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/semitic-3.pdf   Permalink 11:31 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Real estate, like fish, starts rotting from the top.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/895113331488567296   Permalink 9:58 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The bigger problem is that Google is a utility. Yet it does not fall under the 1st amendement. This is what worries me the deepest.https://twitter.com/TehNormster/status/895320753268183040   Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, I will say it publicly. I viscerally don’t like S. Pinker, but I will take every RISK to help him fight insidious censorship. Permalink 9:15 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Where is the real “left”? Those who wd say: “I detest what you write, bt I wd give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write” Permalink 8:41 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb OK Ok Damore is a hero. He knowingly took risk. Permalink 7:55 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This entire idea of bicolorism categorization destroys the notion that humans are humans, and once you classify you destroy something. Permalink 7:44 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This entire idea of bicolorism categorization destroys the notion that humans are humans, and once you classify you destroy something. Permalink 7:44 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Which is why the word “white” shd never be used for race as it means nothing. The only “white” pple may be albino.s. Permalink 7:30 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This guy @adammerberg has been helping Monsanto trolls attacking our work on the prec. pple by lying about the mathematical “mistakes”. Permalink 7:24 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Thanks for correcting me. Damore is not a hero. He is a victim. I honor pple who correct my mistakes w/o trolling.https://twitter.com/tinylessons/status/895287275864694784   Permalink 7:18 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb So Italy shd be divided in two races, the “whites” and the “xxxx” (actually there is a word in Italian)? For Rome it depends on the suburb? Permalink 7:16 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you did ethnicities in Roman England, I think most Mediterranean Romans would be considered “Ethnic” by today’s metric. Permalink 7:06 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “N N Taleb does not suffer fools gladly.” I want it on my epitaph.https://mises.org/blog/what-nassim-taleb-can-teach-us#.WYrzxxjskjo.twitter   Permalink 4:37 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb It is thanks to regulators that Monsanto managed to ghostwrite its own safety reviews.https://twitter.com/Masoninblue/status/895239660020092928   Permalink 4:07 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Monsanto was its own ghostwriter for safety reviews https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/monsanto-was-its-own-ghostwriter-for-some-safety-reviews   via @BW Permalink 3:37 AM – 9 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I got 2 citations from Damore today: Individual variations vs categories. The Universal destroys the particular pic.twitter.com/UQCN44xzAx Permalink 7:11 PM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Comment on ‘Klueless Massimo’s Comments (Massimo Pigliucci) of the Mary Beard (Twitter) debate”https://medium.com/p/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 6:18 PM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The only way to prevent institutions from rotting is by automatic dissolution, to have the same life expectancy as free-market companies. Permalink 5:12 PM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I wrote an entire book on Mathematics of History since EVERY path is a historical “Brownian Bridge” from Fooled by Randomness pic.twitter.com/1H8oI5mV21 Permalink 11:52 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Academia/journos are nice housebroken submissive dogs. By collectivelly going against me they didn’t realize they need to fight a wolf. Permalink 10:16 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 8) I did not read the article in full, just random glances, each time I find a mistake. Permalink 9:08 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 7) Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci (how can one make so many mistakes in a single article? Doesn’t know abt TIME SERIES ? pic.twitter.com/dH5kdXqbcl Permalink 9:07 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb (I exchanged comments with him on twitter.) Permalink 8:26 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Did not read @NickCohen4’s blog based on heuristic: Never read anything by someone abt you if you would never read him abt anything else. Permalink 8:18 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nassim Taleb Warns “Something Is Broken In The UK Intellectual Sphere” | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-07/nassim-taleb-warns-something-broken-uk-intellectual-sphere   Permalink 7:59 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Klueless Massimo “expert” in Stoic virtues s.a. courage. Like nuns “experts” in sexual positions. If you don’t take risk, STFU abt courage.https://twitter.com/mpigliucci/status/894765199726477312   Permalink 7:55 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 6) Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci, department of bullshit. He talks about STATISTICS by referring to STAT 101. pic.twitter.com/IMIq4BlzV0 Permalink 6:57 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Here is a more technical way to view the “otherness” in terms of distance, differential entropy. pic.twitter.com/vv9A0WXMwJ Permalink 5:22 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb And, BTW, @mpigliucci ‘s account has nothing to do w/my argument, outlined in my Medium post. https://medium.com/incerto/something-is-broken-in-the-uk-intellectual-sphere-7efc9a1f154a   @davidpapineau Permalink 4:40 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb And, BTW, @mpigliucci ‘s account has nothing to do w/my argument, outlined in my Medium post. https://medium.com/incerto/something-is-broken-in-the-uk-intellectual-sphere-7efc9a1f154a   @davidpapineau Permalink 4:40 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I am sure @kateantiquity and @caitlinrgreen would agree with my message that ethnicities shd not be binarized/lumped as “other”. pic.twitter.com/CmgE5n5CU0 Permalink 4:26 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Independently an Italian fellow nails it! Same point as mine about the insidious racism of Mary Beardhttps://twitter.com/SiamolaGente/status/894856398806409216   Permalink 4:07 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb To actually understand what Mary Beard and the UK PolNazis are getting wrong. (h/t Google hero) pic.twitter.com/cUqyZsNNb2 Permalink 3:40 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@primalpoly The original #googlememo, including all its links to research, which @Gizmodo deleted before criticizing it as lacking empirical support.https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/894816981521772545   Permalink 2:34 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Pple are surprised that Turkey speaks Turkish w/little Turkic genes, Lebanon has no Arab genes, not that India speaks English w/o Engl genes Permalink 2:13 AM – 8 Aug 2017

@nntaleb A great description of how ritual defamation is done. Problem: #antifragility of some.https://twitter.com/__ice9/status/894757155437297665   Permalink 8:14 PM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If they can. Only if they can.https://twitter.com/prestonjbyrne/status/894272812751499265   Permalink 8:07 PM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb That has been my point all my life. Western Civilization is Med. Diversity should be olive oil vs butter, not Euro vs “other”. Idiots.https://twitter.com/francisalonso86/status/894616311086686212   Permalink 11:02 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Something torturing me. I receive a Tesla this week & something abt state subsidies troubles my conscience as a localist-libertarian. Permalink 10:30 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Actually, I can guesstimate from the decline in rate of blocking by bot of UK SWJ trolls and journos over past 12h that it has to be <1%. Permalink 10:10 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This man gets it.https://twitter.com/Billare/status/894589364625428480   Permalink 9:31 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The big question: How much do the Political Correct Universalist Nazis represent of the UK pple: 3%? Less? More?https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 7:36 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mike Duncan @mikeduncan concluded abt my exchange w/Mary Beard not veifying if she did not falsify the nature of encounter. ShoddyHistorianhttps://twitter.com/mikeduncan/status/894531394814259203   Permalink 6:35 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@primalpoly Google HR: ‘There are no sex differences’ Google AdWords: ‘You bought books on programming? Here are ads for GQ magazine and Cialis’ pic.twitter.com/Dtn2vvNfoI Permalink 6:09 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I actually followed @mikeduncan on twitter until I listened in podcast to a subject I know well, Seneca, & saw he was a bullshitter. Permalink 5:23 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb How can you trust a “historian” like @mikeduncan if he doesn’t have the instinct to look for other side of story? https://medium.com/incerto/something-is-broken-in-the-uk-intellectual-sphere-7efc9a1f154a  https://twitter.com/mikeduncan/status/893189129638490119   Permalink 4:42 AM – 7 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I can feel in my bones, from the #googlememo (and my UK story) that something is starting to crumble. I mean, to crumble. Permalink 6:39 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@LorenzoWVilla (I believe that) This statement is extremely accurate and extremely funny. Permalink 6:03 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb But, fundamentally, saying “I am a woman hence I have a license to call everyone who bothers me a misogynist” infuriates me. Permalink 2:59 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Beard said “accurate” which got me going. Then backtracked Then misrepresented the exchange abt credentials. Then used the feminist cover. pic.twitter.com/FOKqWJ6JXm Permalink 2:57 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@karoumy I screencapped it in time. pic.twitter.com/KfN64aYJlr Permalink 2:28 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@RBeisert Taleb called a UK “historian” out for revisionism. People stamped their feet impotently while antifragile Taleb laughed. Permalink 2:10 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Please ban all my “pop risk” books. Enact rules to make them illegal on campus. Please put the burning on youtube, please!https://twitter.com/soniarothwell/status/894299329715941378   Permalink 1:52 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I knew there was something wrong with the Green Party’s support of war in Syria. But they extend their “environmental” to Roman Britain.https://twitter.com/WhyToVoteGreen/status/894283635662127104   Permalink 1:12 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I get tons of that crap, now w/a bot blocking them. Basically it is very OK to be a bullshitter if “good manners”. The UK self-destructing?https://twitter.com/janeknappster/status/894278567995088900   Permalink 12:30 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Salibi claims Lebanon had wave of settlements byYemenis. No trace of J1e among Sunnis. Historian texts= hearsay + fabrication + some truth pic.twitter.com/KuTtE4p3OQ Permalink 12:07 PM – 6 Aug 2017

@Chateaubriand__ This raises the important point that, by inserting implausible contemporary diversity, the BBC ignored the real diversity of Roman Britain.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/893456839375032322   Permalink 10:34 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@Cernovich Intelligence bureaucrats disdain @nntaleb risk management. Firing Flynn robbed America of one of our greatest minds. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/michael-flynn-general-chaos   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/X2JCVBI2LA”>  pic.twitter.com/X2JCVBI2LA Permalink 10:22 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In UK, It is misogynist to not deal w/a woman as one would w/a man. But if you deal w/a woman as you would w/a man, you are also mysogynist. Permalink 9:53 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This is how Syrians looked. Like Romans. And the Berbers. Diversity was Mediter vs U.K. Mary Beard keeps her BS going. pic.twitter.com/nP8hYafBVK Permalink 9:31 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb More bullshit by Mary Beard: Berbers and Syrians were Mediterraneans, close to Romans in looks, the “diversity” doesn’t work there. pic.twitter.com/p9sudkvG38 Permalink 9:09 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb PLEDGE: If I ever, over my lifetime make a BS nondisconfirmatory historical statement, you are allowed to abuse me! @alexapostolideshttps://twitter.com/alexapostolides/status/894214800913428480   Permalink 8:40 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb All I can say so far: very roughly, Palestinians are Meds on their mother’s side, Arabs on their father’s. Exhilarating to read history Permalink 7:59 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ZCQpzG45Ix Permalink 7:53 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Palestinian genetic distance using cross-entropy on Mito DNA, female lineage pic.twitter.com/ixCepwzz5G Permalink 7:46 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mr (bullshitter Johnson, here is what we know about the “African” Punicshttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/dna-sequencing-of-ancient-phoenician-remains-could-make-us-reconsider-the-history-of-human-movement-a7048046.html   Permalink 6:35 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@eamonn @nntaleb is not “alt-right”, but he did call Mary Beard a “bullshitter.” Here’s why:https://medium.com/incerto/something-is-broken-in-the-uk-intellectual-sphere-7efc9a1f154a   Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The J1e pic.twitter.com/x8usv8tCTF Permalink 6:01 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Jim Pickard @PickardJE of the FT engaged in same w/me but, 8 years later, is PROUD of it. When journos are despicable, they are despicable.https://twitter.com/juliagalef/status/894092020494381056   Permalink 5:21 AM – 6 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Palestinians appear to be ~one third/half Mediterranean, one third/half Arabs. 8 times more traces of Peninsula Arabs than Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/1lBUSe8VVA Permalink 4:38 AM – 6 Aug 2017