Tag Archives: Pinker

#RWRI, Michael Levitt, Pinker, Kucharski, JACOBINISM, Diab | Twitter

COVID-19 brought socialism to America – Nassim Taleb | SophieCo. Visionaries
The COVID-19 pandemic came as an external shock, almost unprecedented. How can we navigate the uncertainty of the post-pandemic future? We talked to the author of bestselling books ‘The Black Swan’, ‘Antifragile’, and ‘Skin in the Game’, risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

@nntaleb 4/ PS- The argument that someone has a Nobel (particularly in an unrelated field) is EXACTLY the bad side of ad hominem. Permalink 2020-08-19 15:40:35

@nntaleb 3/ True humility (“humbleness”), Mr Levitt, @MLevitt_NP2013, is not in bowing to the “Nobel privilege”; it lies in understanding that we live in a world lacking certainties & acting accordingly, not risking lives via charlatanic claims. Permalink 2020-08-19 11:06:21

@nntaleb 2/ @MLevitt_NP2013 is offended that thanks to his Nobel privilege in… chemistry we shd bow to him for his ignorance in Extreme Value Th & probabilistic risk analysis. This is what we called the #CarpenterFallacy PS: Levitt forecast Israel <=10 deaths Permalink 2020-08-19 10:01:59

@nntaleb It is in there. The Koura is the southernmost part. Permalink 2020-08-19 09:46:14

@nntaleb Explains the culture of the Koura valley south of Antioch. Permalink 2020-08-19 02:50:39

@nntaleb Your seats reserved for the next RWRI. Permalink 2020-08-19 01:05:01

@nntaleb Back in stock. And link for the free PDF. If you want to save money, feel free to download & print. Permalink 2020-08-19 01:03:41

@nntaleb Blood pressure also rises Permalink 2020-08-18 21:56:44

@nntaleb We used to have physical fights before Zoom Permalink 2020-08-18 21:11:44

@nntaleb No, one needs to let others speak. Permalink 2020-08-18 17:31:20

@nntaleb Unreadable… Permalink 2020-08-18 16:49:35

@nntaleb Steve Wolfram. Permalink 2020-08-18 11:47:53

@nntaleb Bad quality! @zachobront Permalink 2020-08-18 11:10:49

@nntaleb End of book Permalink 2020-08-17 14:46:18

@nntaleb Jaffer is Palestinian. If he openly says that he will vote for Trump, you can expect many people classified on the left to do so, but covertly. Pardoning Snowden will draw many voters wary of the “deep state”. Permalink 2020-08-17 02:08:56

@nntaleb 2/ Can someone give an intuitive proof of the law of iterated expectations? Words only, no math. Permalink 2020-08-17 01:17:15

@nntaleb This reminds me of the statement “the probability is now 100%. But it could change.” Permalink 2020-08-16 23:19:06

@nntaleb How can you get in? US citizens are banned. Permalink 2020-08-16 23:17:48

@nntaleb Wrong heuristic/definition of wrgodicity Permalink 2020-08-16 20:37:08

@nntaleb Actually a lot of farmers from Asia Minor. Google it. Permalink 2020-08-16 20:18:32

@nntaleb If this works, outperforms any quarantine! More so if false negatives correlate to contagiousness. Permalink 2020-08-16 19:55:55

@nntaleb No… Permalink 2020-08-16 18:12:02

@nntaleb Scribes in Egypt Permalink 2020-08-16 14:12:03

@nntaleb To understand scaling in politics/economics/culture: Mediterraneans (olive oil pple) have traditionally done best in groups & organizations of size n. Creating large orgs/states= Procrustean bed. Discuss. Permalink 2020-08-16 13:39:56

@nntaleb Explain why it is the same word in Greek. Explain why it is relevant to my aphorism. Or shut the fuck up. Permalink 2020-08-16 13:30:15

@nntaleb We need a federal system. Last ditch solution. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:57:04

@nntaleb Nor did Pinker answer why he states Richardson’s analysis backward. Never corrected. Nor does he explain how an undefined (or infinite) mean can drop. #BSVendor Permalink 2020-08-16 12:44:25

@nntaleb The reason I said “dishonest” is because of other subsequent statistical analyses (like Clauset below) confirming our point: Pinker DID NOT answer them. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:41:30

@nntaleb A bunch of nitpickers making a historical distinction between “democracy” and “republic” irrelevant to the aphorism –like all nitpickers, fundamentally ignorant. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:16:11

@nntaleb My explanation. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:10:34

@nntaleb Interarrival time for large wars is 50-150 years, with mean deviation very high. Means he is talking noise. Permalink 2020-08-16 02:14:50

@nntaleb {1,1,1,0,0,0} and {1,0,1,0,1,0} have a ⅓ correlation. At the limit of n large, the CDF of a Bivariate normal in the positive quadrant for both variables. We can ignore the variance at root{n} because of symmetry. Permalink 2020-08-16 01:53:58

@nntaleb More evidence that 1) @sapinker is ignorant of statistics, 2) is dishonest about it. [Such reasoning (not the unethical part) is called the “Pinker Problem” in Stat Consequences of Fat Tails] Permalink 2020-08-16 01:50:44

@nntaleb My solution above is exact: 1/4 +\frac{ArcSin(⅓)} {2\pi} Permalink 2020-08-16 01:40:07

@nntaleb My solution is LOCALISM. Regional autonomy. No central state can work in Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-16 01:37:57

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-16 01:36:00

@nntaleb New formatting for Principia Politica (similar to Stat Cons FT). Now I wonder if it should not be in the Technical Incerto rather than the Incerto. It is not written in an essay language, but a more formal document. Permalink 2020-08-15 21:16:18

@nntaleb Excess death are ALREADY >200K over similar pasr periods (reported death rate <= true death rate, to do stats properly). And that’s not the fucking point: he would be wrong even if he got the number right. You don’t make claims of n=1 in high variance. Can’t you get the point? Permalink 2020-08-15 19:02:23

@nntaleb Democracy: representation by a very narrow selection of people whose principal attributes & skills are that they are very, very good at being elected. Permalink 2020-08-15 18:36:43

@nntaleb You are mistaking the necessary for the sufficient Permalink 2020-08-15 18:27:38

@nntaleb 1- I never take any advice from someone I didn’t ask for advice. [Rephrased] Permalink 2020-08-15 18:26:55

@nntaleb There are other tests of moments, or use of EVT that can confirm. Permalink 2020-08-15 18:03:23

@nntaleb Marshmallowbrain, death rates are already higher than 170k Permalink 2020-08-15 17:59:50

@nntaleb Why does anyone take Michael Levitt seriously? It’s not that his predictions are wrong (they are), but worse: it is unrigorous to engage in single point predictions (n=1) in a high variance &/or Fat Tailed environment. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1287036738565738496 Permalink 2020-08-15 16:56:57

@nntaleb No idea. Unblocked. Permalink 2020-08-15 16:19:03

@nntaleb Per le distribuzioni normale e lognormale l’incertezza aumenta con l’ “orizzonte” temporale. Per le code grasse, l’incertezza è sempre massima! Permalink 2020-08-15 15:56:44

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, I am not removing people who disagree, rather trolls and people who engage in sophistry. Like you. Permalink 2020-08-15 15:39:36

@nntaleb Journos fail to get that Shiites can BOTH worship Nasrallah & want him OUT of daily government. How? The French & Brits both worshiped & voted out De Gaulle & Churchill resp. after the war. The French called De Gaulle back for the Algerian war. Permalink 2020-08-15 15:28:37

@nntaleb The problem with #RWRI is that 20% of attendees are return students, #growing every time, so we may converge to a 100% repeat. Permalink 2020-08-15 11:50:44

@nntaleb Jean, not true. N W Levant (Galilee to Antioch+ Damascus) has ~no Peninsular genetics (all Med-Anatolian) Bt Syria has tons in SE Saudi Arabia has 13% Levantine-Anatolian genetics which may have confused some, But no need for a Levantine nation-state: as w/Scandinavia. Permalink 2020-08-15 11:46:35

@nntaleb “Considered” is not a metric (revelation of preferences). How many did? More than other months? Permalink 2020-08-15 01:40:19

@nntaleb I just showed that our grandmothers know more probability theory and risk management than @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein. Permalink 2020-08-15 01:19:36

@nntaleb Essaye par SCRIBE pour $50. Aussi on doit deplacer lundi. 2e session marche? Permalink 2020-08-15 01:17:10

@nntaleb He added “Gabish” to the intellectual tradition https://twitter.com/TamerTSalameh/status/1294313451012030464 Permalink 2020-08-15 01:03:41

@nntaleb Sorry! Permalink 2020-08-14 21:53:54

@nntaleb You are welcome to barge in any time. Permalink 2020-08-14 21:41:09

@nntaleb RWRI Permalink 2020-08-14 15:02:36

@nntaleb GDP is off Permalink 2020-08-14 11:23:21

@nntaleb This is mostly because Kucharski is a “peer-review” poseur does not understand fat tails & their consequences. Epidemiologists are stuck in a citation ring. See our discussion with Ioannidis. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1294197066856620032 Permalink 2020-08-14 11:17:50

@nntaleb New grind Permalink 2020-08-14 11:11:46

@nntaleb Excellent service you are getting, namesake. The big boss is taking care of this. Permalink 2020-08-13 20:39:45

@nntaleb Sir Karl usually wears open neck sweaters. Permalink 2020-08-13 18:14:19

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-13 17:33:37

@nntaleb Covid models Optional #RWRI session with Diego Zviovich Permalink 2020-08-13 17:31:56

@nntaleb @dzviovich Permalink 2020-08-13 14:57:23

@nntaleb Not kidding. The publisher-facilitator makes a yuuuuge difference when you go for maximum quality, no compromise. Physical books are objects, not disposable items. @zachobront Permalink 2020-08-13 12:13:54

@nntaleb I told you so Permalink 2020-08-13 12:11:59

@nntaleb It is all in the olive smell and the paper quality. Permalink 2020-08-13 12:08:44

@nntaleb Friends, the book is back in stock on AMZN and below. We still guarantee the $49.95 for worldwide shipping. But I have a question: why the f*** are so many people interested in a technical book? Because of the colors? the olive smell? Permalink 2020-08-13 11:58:59

@nntaleb JACOBINISM Friends, in French Jacobinisms maps exactly to my nightmare: a centralized nation-state w/IYIs running it, coupled with a monolithic national identity (anti-localism, anti-minorities, anti-multiculturalism). What would be the corresponding English term? Permalink 2020-08-13 10:53:16

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile I spent ⅓ of my time in Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-13 10:44:29

@nntaleb Same as in Western Aramaic? Permalink 2020-08-12 23:48:37

@nntaleb In other words, better say “I don’t know” then “I now know” than say “I know”, then “I didn’t know”. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-12 14:42:38

@nntaleb RWRI 14 Online #RWRI 15 instructors, 12 in the room. Permalink 2020-08-12 14:29:18

@nntaleb “You exist in full if and only if your conversation (or writings) can not be easily reconstructed with clips from other conversations. “ Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-08-12 12:03:12

@nntaleb Ounce of precaution vs pound of cure Our precautionary approach to COVID has been to become progressively less worried as we got additional information. The WHO, newsidiots, & bureaucrats did exact opposite: acted more worried as they received more information. #RWRI #RWRI14 Permalink 2020-08-12 12:00:49

@nntaleb Med doors https://twitter.com/Return2Med/status/1293230572391804928 Permalink 2020-08-12 00:14:11

@nntaleb No comparison. Not close. Permalink 2020-08-11 21:41:15

@nntaleb Fucking idiot get your comparisons right. My readers do not barge into my living room or troll my other readers. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:50:22

@nntaleb He does not know what totalitarian means. A feed is a private property. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:22:00

@nntaleb There is nothing wrong with the “joke”. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:21:10

@nntaleb Done Permalink 2020-08-11 19:23:02

@nntaleb Diab is not evil, just v. naive. The myth is that ministers control ministries. Insiders (decades) can resist their control. The only cure is: Augean stable/smashing bureaucracies, & decentralization. Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. #localism Permalink 2020-08-11 12:15:37

@nntaleb It did not hit this moron @DavidDaoud that the fellow is not speaking Arabic but Levantine. Permalink 2020-08-11 10:24:54

@nntaleb Almost: All models are wrong, many are useful, some are deadly. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:43:51

@nntaleb There are scholarships. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:38:26

@nntaleb This time the ratio is much much higher. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:37:41

@nntaleb Slavic from where? Permalink 2020-08-10 16:47:55

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-10 10:34:30

@nntaleb Used to be Ba7r l Rum Permalink 2020-08-10 09:27:59

@nntaleb I can unblock Permalink 2020-08-09 22:28:00

@nntaleb Same. Permalink 2020-08-09 21:37:51

@nntaleb DIFFERENT VARIETIES OF PEACE Peace between Israelis & Palestinians cannot happen from the top (a la Oslo). Peace between Israel & Hezbollah/Iran can easily happen from the top because the tension is from the top. Permalink 2020-08-09 20:30:59

@nntaleb Some bitter imbecile I’ve blocked. Permalink 2020-08-09 20:27:09

@nntaleb Levantines in Mexico are fish in water. Permalink 2020-08-09 19:46:00

@nntaleb Nothing to do with Phoenicianism. Levant is part of Anatolia, a cluster Turkey-Armenia-Cyprus-Greece, our brothers in food, dance, genetic, etc. Permalink 2020-08-09 19:39:24

@nntaleb Spain is Med as hell Permalink 2020-08-09 18:49:43

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Mediterranean Again #MakeLebanonMediterraneanAgain And for our other Med brothers in the Levant #MakeTheLevantMediterraneanAgain Permalink 2020-08-09 18:09:07

@nntaleb No, no, no, please! Real reviews are of the type you just did: spontaneously and linked to YOUR understanding. Please continue the way you started. Permalink 2020-08-09 17:58:14

@nntaleb Triple imbecile you are not getting the point and it has NOTHING to do with books on probability. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 16:54:46

@nntaleb My first book review by a real user. Permalink 2020-08-09 16:52:45

@nntaleb Moving on is not geographic, idiot. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:34:25

@nntaleb No, fuck that. Probability. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:17:44

@nntaleb Family, imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:16:44

@nntaleb You don’t get the notion of neutrality? The judge should be one of the parties? Permalink 2020-08-09 14:15:30

@nntaleb You seem clueless. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:57:36

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:52:54

@nntaleb Yes government is using it to prevent riots but still can’t compare numbers. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:52:14

@nntaleb No double blind study. We need volunteers. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:48:31

@nntaleb UN Security Council: We require an independent investigation – Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-08-09 13:47:05

@nntaleb Good ideas about rent seeking. But he is no scholar. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:40:48

@nntaleb Family name? Can look up Permalink 2020-08-09 13:19:14

@nntaleb Blood disease markers match NW Greece. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:16:26

@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability (uses Gaussian metrics outside domain). All papers are flawed. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:54:40

@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:53:55

@nntaleb Many Maronites are Armenians, All Sunnis are of Rum origin. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:52:17

@nntaleb We had Russia before 1917. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:32:42

@nntaleb We the Rum do not consider ourselves “Greek” (a nation-state modern invention in the 1800s) but Romaics (Byzantine), closer to “Hellenistic”. That is, East Romans, un point c’est tout. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:31:43

@nntaleb Most Rum in the Koura are actually Macedonian in origin; Those in N Syria are Anatolian-Aegean Greeks. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:29:55

@nntaleb Please read the paper before rehashing platitudes. It is not our point. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:17:29

@nntaleb Science is not about naive “evidence”; science is about properties, some of which can be revealed by evidence. Our paper in the debate with Ioannidis. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-09 12:07:28

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 11:30:47

@nntaleb No, and not >= but strict equality. = 1 is an exponential (memoriless) Permalink 2020-08-09 11:02:57

@nntaleb INTELLECTUAL VERBALISMS Ms. Saad assumes that if people are fed up w/corruption, it *necessarily* comes from geopolitics, a US-concocted plot and neo-colonialism. No, Iranian influence is a native thing, not interventionism at all. Note: BTW, Iran is bankrupt. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:51:45

@nntaleb There is no “evidence” a spear through the skull represents significant danger, since I never saw a “peer-reviewed” paper to that effect. #EvidenceBasedBS #WearAMaskForTheSakeofOthers Permalink 2020-08-09 10:46:49

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-09 10:40:44

@nntaleb I block for bullshitting. You want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-08-09 10:39:08

@nntaleb My father found that (Ruffiè and Taleb, 1964) from rare blood diseases. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:35:35

@nntaleb \frac{1}{a} E(X | X>=a) >1 Permalink 2020-08-09 10:34:39

@nntaleb Comes partly from S. Italians and Etruscans being Anatolian, same as Canaanites. They came from the same place. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:28:44

@nntaleb Can’t compare because the latter number is a function of precaution. Permalink 2020-08-09 09:52:25

@nntaleb Kurtosis ~3 Permalink 2020-08-09 01:36:18

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-09 01:09:03

@nntaleb Grandfather MP voted for Bachir. Permalink 2020-08-09 00:30:13

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-09 00:20:48

@nntaleb You know it’s a fraud: not by looking at the merchant, but just by looking at the customers. Permalink 2020-08-09 00:18:15

@nntaleb Localism Permalink 2020-08-08 23:22:43

@nntaleb Where did I say that ? Permalink 2020-08-08 22:22:49

@nntaleb Bullshitting != making mistakes Permalink 2020-08-08 21:56:00

@nntaleb I spent ⅓ of the time there. Go lecture someone else. Permalink 2020-08-08 21:43:22

@nntaleb I never block people who make mistakes, @kareem_carr. Permalink 2020-08-08 21:18:23

@nntaleb Not quite Permalink 2020-08-08 21:05:07

@nntaleb Give me a week for the new organization. Might be the Lebanese Red Cross. Thanks. Permalink 2020-08-08 20:30:52

@nntaleb Dist of #of runs, not max (yet) Permalink 2020-08-08 20:29:48

@nntaleb OK, Let me up the stakes, @octonion What is the distribution of the number of runs? (a run is an uninterrupted succession of H or T). This will allow us to get the exact expected maximum run. Ours was still a numerical hudge. (math to clear up my mind owing to #Lebanon ) Permalink 2020-08-08 19:41:50

@nntaleb Mediterraneans. Permalink 2020-08-08 19:27:36

@nntaleb Of course, send it back to where you bought it. Permalink 2020-08-08 19:26:56

@nntaleb WTF? Lebanese ≠ “Arab” Permalink 2020-08-08 19:13:17

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-08 18:49:37

@nntaleb Bravo! Permalink 2020-08-08 18:47:08

@nntaleb Thank you Twitter. The tweet👇generated >$30K (excluding my contribution). Will repeat in a few days with another organization (#diversification). Permalink 2020-08-08 18:08:24

@nntaleb Necessary and Sufficient. #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-08 18:01:33

@nntaleb Immediate elections. But better to be slow in cleaning shops [corruption] because of the French Revolution. The more you delay the worse the cleanup gets. Permalink 2020-08-08 17:35:37

@nntaleb Mabruk! Permalink 2020-08-08 17:26:41

@nntaleb Nothing in history that moved fast EVER worked. Transitions work. #Burke Permalink 2020-08-08 17:08:34

@nntaleb Cheers, [signed] XXX Permalink 2020-08-08 17:03:47

@nntaleb Idiots. Permalink 2020-08-08 16:43:34

@nntaleb This info by @halimshebaya is NOT false info. Many officials from corrupt regimes buy properties via LLC in the US. #MarwanPonzi Kheireddine is a beneficial owner of the LLC. People who bankrupt their banks can’t be smart. #MarwanPonzi was unable to hide his identity. Permalink 2020-08-08 16:26:22

@nntaleb x^2+1/x^2+2=5 (x+1/x)=sqrt(5) x=(\sqrt(5) \pm 1)½ Permalink 2020-08-08 14:10:47

@nntaleb There is a story about *some* “top” epidemiologists not understanding masks (nor epidemiology, nor convexity, nor life, nor much else). Wear a mask for the sake of others. Permalink 2020-08-08 13:02:05

@nntaleb Salemtak! Permalink 2020-08-08 11:55:49

@nntaleb This @mar1_k must first explain. Then eventually pay for this. Unlike with Madoff, all Lebanese Ponzi participants are still at large. “If you see fraud and don’t shout fraud you are a fraud.” Permalink 2020-08-08 11:33:43

@nntaleb Best to cancel and reorder on link above. Permalink 2020-08-08 11:18:22

@nntaleb No, Self-remade. Permalink 2020-08-08 10:57:15

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:26:17

@nntaleb Localism, I keep saying. You don’t replace a government that harms you with more government. Self-organization and bottom up government. Take things into your own hands. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:23:47

@nntaleb Excellent detection of the contradiction. I use revenge in my personal life, when it is a deterrent, but not in my collective-political one when things are settled. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:21:58

@nntaleb John Gray’s recommendation Permalink 2020-08-07 21:42:38

@nntaleb I block idiots. The only colonialism in Lebanon is 500 y of Ottoman, in which minorities learned to thrive (#Antifragile) (Fr spent 20 y as a LON mandate). “Past injustices fuel present injustices and focusing on those isn’t a weakness.” Some idiot looking for problem. Permalink 2020-08-07 19:33:55

@nntaleb Byzantine. Permalink 2020-08-07 19:27:15

@nntaleb Can someone dig Bo Winegard’s income? I bet you it is less than a blue collar person. cc:@Monsantobuster Permalink 2020-08-07 18:51:29

@nntaleb W inté wein 3éyesh? Permalink 2020-08-07 18:29:20

@nntaleb Into min 7aret l faw2a? Permalink 2020-08-07 18:09:53

@nntaleb 3indé 7ada ma3 Fresh $$$bi Bairut W kamén bb3at Bitcoin la 3alam. Permalink 2020-08-07 17:18:23

@nntaleb Too much sun Permalink 2020-08-07 17:12:36

@nntaleb Confirmed. Permalink 2020-08-07 17:11:01

@nntaleb Finally found source; added it to references. Permalink 2020-08-07 16:34:04

@nntaleb I have been giving direct to people hurt in #Lebanon, no intermediary. But for those w/o the network, I verified this group (I know some of the people involved very well; they are volunteers) and (#SKinInTheGame) will give also them $$to match some of your donations. Permalink 2020-08-07 16:24:42

@nntaleb I am not interested in people liking me. I am interested in people READING me. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:05:47

@nntaleb 2) Most of these colonial studies are built around retrospective acrimony as an industry by itself, by rent-seeking academics. Move on. Life is not zero sum. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:03:23

@nntaleb The more you get stuck in the past at past historical slights, the worse your progress. Move on; getting rich is the best revenge. In 1982 Assad (père) & warlord Frangié blew up our house in Amioun. I got rich & we built a bigger one. My way of saying F***k you. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:00:14

@nntaleb Prayers.🙏 Permalink 2020-08-07 13:51:16

@nntaleb Can’t you read a tweet? Reread above. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:40:42

@nntaleb Yes, non top-down Permalink 2020-08-07 13:36:58

@nntaleb Amazon recommending me to buy my own book. The book should be back in stock on AMZN next week. Meanwhile there is stock here: for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95. https://thescribestore.com/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb… Remember the PDF is Free https://researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-08-07 13:35:21

@nntaleb Sub-imbecile, DNA of Lebanese (Muslims and Christians) is close to Imperial Romans. Sub-imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:29:31

@nntaleb Let’s be open to both interpretations. The Orthodox were sympathetic to the Ottomans, but we were not allowed to have bells in our churches. Catherine changed that. I think that the problems started as vicious circles of nationalism after the Greek independence wars. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:08:56

@nntaleb Idiots who recite post-colonial studies don’t get it that the Ottomans spent 500 years in Lebanon, the French military came as a League of Nations Mandate for ~22 years. French “influence”, if anything, decreased (Arabism + American University). Permalink 2020-08-07 12:16:56

@nntaleb Block conspiracy theorists. Permalink 2020-08-07 12:10:49

@nntaleb Salemtkon. Weyn kinto lamma saret? Permalink 2020-08-07 12:00:45

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:58:59

@nntaleb Theories by nuance-blind idiots. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:47:51

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:46:40

@nntaleb Localism Permalink 2020-08-07 11:40:26

@nntaleb Hi, we discontinued as the quality is of Book Depository is sub par. It is Print on Demand You can return it if you wish and order from the US the real one. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:38:30

@nntaleb I block idiots Permalink 2020-08-06 23:44:20

@nntaleb Apple cash is free! Permalink 2020-08-06 21:07:01

@nntaleb Can you help get a direct wire for larger $$? No fees, unlike Paypal, etc. Permalink 2020-08-06 20:32:25

@nntaleb Now, the real problemo. What is the distribution of the mean run? Permalink 2020-08-06 20:06:00

@nntaleb Bingo. The problem is the grievance industry. Permalink 2020-08-06 20:04:14

@nntaleb Do they go into fresh $$accounts? Permalink 2020-08-06 19:49:40

@nntaleb Blocked Permalink 2020-08-06 16:57:05

@nntaleb 2) Of the 3 million Gauls in what is now France, 1 million were killed, 1 million enslaved. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:56:55

@nntaleb STATUTES OF LIMITATION The French-Algerian war was 60 years ago. Unless you consider it settled, you are opening up to endless boomerangs of grief. For the Gauls were invaded & exterminated by Julius Cesar 2000 y ago. Should they ask Rome for reparation? Move on. Look ahead. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:50:09

@nntaleb No, just block. I did. Ostrakon. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:40:02

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff? Permalink 2020-08-06 16:36:34

@nntaleb I blocked him. Despicable man. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:01:24

@nntaleb CONSPIRACY THEORIES/FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS I explained in FBR how journos tend to always assign causes to random market moves. I stopped reading newspapers early on in my career. It is the exact same mechanism that makes us see conspiracies in place of accidents. Permalink 2020-08-06 14:51:38

@nntaleb OK, blocked. All conspiracy theories are blocked. Permalink 2020-08-06 14:41:39

@nntaleb Salemetkon Permalink 2020-08-06 14:25:34

@nntaleb Macron, we owe you. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:59:53

@nntaleb Fucking idiot show me the genetic evidence. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:51:19

@nntaleb Yves Smith is doing the job no journalist does anymore. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:35:29

@nntaleb My bedroom in Beirut (in the family place). Permalink 2020-08-06 13:29:16

@nntaleb Made in London from descriptions Permalink 2020-08-06 12:14:13

@nntaleb You seem to be on the wrong footing. You can’t seek peace by fighting a faction. They are the ones you need to deal with. Permalink 2020-08-06 12:09:10

@nntaleb I guess the debate about the “value” of tail risk hedging has ended. Permalink 2020-08-06 12:00:16

@nntaleb Good Permalink 2020-08-06 11:33:40

@nntaleb Good. But will take a while to thaw the ice. Permalink 2020-08-06 11:28:14

@nntaleb My question is: who died and how? Permalink 2020-08-06 00:19:05

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-05 23:52:54

@nntaleb My endorsement for his next book: “Gad Saad has more intellectual courage than many entire departments.” Permalink 2020-08-05 23:49:32

@nntaleb His Gadness has so much intellectual courage that I would never betray him. Permalink 2020-08-05 23:44:49

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has to do with food & sophistication Permalink 2020-08-05 23:02:11

@nntaleb Skin in the game. He is going to Lebanon tomorrow, after sending troops. No empty talk. Permalink 2020-08-05 22:45:34

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-05 22:34:35

@nntaleb This approach is critical and explains the parsimonious character of Extreme Value Theory: to figure out if a sequence is random, instead of counting heads and tails, start by looking at the maxima. See how much it diverges from 8. Permalink 2020-08-05 22:02:16

@nntaleb The formula would be to integrate ^250/mean assuming the distribution of the mean. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:13:40

@nntaleb No, a fudge. The 125 is a fudge. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:09:55

@nntaleb Waiting for more such studies. Morbidity seems to affect mild cases, as presumed in our debate with Ioannidis (Taleb Bar Yam, Cirillo, 2020, IJF). You need to account for morbidity, not just fatality, rates. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:01:59

@nntaleb Is there a BTC => Fresh dollars market? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-05 17:12:53

@nntaleb Fresh $$account Permalink 2020-08-05 16:02:42

@nntaleb 2/Some people on the thread are recommending NGOs. I tend to go direct, avoid professionals. Someone I know. And if you pick an organization, take one with volunteers, no professional staff. Permalink 2020-08-05 15:01:11

@nntaleb Nobody needs your prayers. Permalink 2020-08-05 14:54:24

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Stop the BS & the statements. Find pple in your circle who lost their home & offer $$to rebuild. Talk is cheap. Don’t call with words, call with $$. Now. PS- I block everyone engaging in conspiracy theories under such a tragedy. Permalink 2020-08-05 14:51:50

Manhattan, Ioannidis, NUCLEAR, Sunstein, FRAUD!!!!!, Thaler, Omar Sharif, Tetlock, Pinker, IQ, Playboy, BOOK PUBLISHING, Hagia Sophia | Twitter

Published on Jul 27, 2020
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
For transcript and links related to today’s episode: https://www.econtalk.org/nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-the-pandemic/

The Masks Masquerade

Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility

Face Masks May be Necessary and Sufficient to Stop Covid-19
An entrepreneur’s perspective on Nassim Taleb’s conclusions about face masks

Podcast Notes: The Pandemic, Power of Masks, Levels of Risk and More | Nassim Nicholas Taleb on EconTalk

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)
Published on Feb 18, 2020
We explain the Kelly criterion and illustrate why “risk aversion” in Behavioral Finance is Micky Mouse(™) Science.

TLDR: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic A summary of the July 27, 2020 episode of EconTalk.

On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables (pdf)

@nntaleb Fireworks or ammunitions from the initial sparks. Stop the conspiracy theories, for Baal’s sake. No plane. Permalink 2020-08-04 16:38:01

@nntaleb Manhattan is dead & unflaneurable. Astoria Queens is more flaneurable: less pretentious & has much better Greek food, 30% blue collar customers instead of constipated book executives & philistines who read Harari. Even flaneuring can adapt well. Permalink 2020-08-04 14:33:56

@nntaleb Nikos Phililogos Permalink 2020-08-04 14:21:32

@nntaleb Scribe Permalink 2020-08-04 14:20:21

@nntaleb “Arabic”? WTF? Permalink 2020-08-04 14:19:29

@nntaleb Nobody noticed it is the Saint Petersburgh problem? Power law, if uncapped, with infinite mean. There is a Feller theorem about time to cross the origin following a Cauchy Permalink 2020-08-04 13:56:33

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 2020-08-04 13:29:12

@nntaleb You can easily copy one line, no? Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:53

@nntaleb Typo: m=250/2 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:37

@nntaleb And if you cheat (“verify”) by using Monte Carlo you get the same. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:25:29

@nntaleb My solution: 8.3 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:23:16

@nntaleb Not “Greek” olive oil. Lebanese olive oil from the Koura valley, so only ½ Greek. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:03:21

@nntaleb Not quite, my friend. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:27:22

@nntaleb Ok, Ok, Quiz What is the expected longest run generated by a random 250 coin tosses. A run is defined as n heads or n tails. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:24:14

@nntaleb Actually, no. People mistake length of runs for average of runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:25:44

@nntaleb Thanks Zhuo. Visibly your hand one does not have long runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:03:08

@nntaleb Using a Markov chain to estimate the expected number of runs. The number of runs of 7 must bet ~2 Permalink 2020-08-03 18:59:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you go give advice to someone else? Permalink 2020-08-03 14:17:33

@nntaleb III A wise decision is one that is sound both prospectively and retrospectively, in both foresight and hindsight. Our best definition of #Precaution Permalink 2020-08-03 13:52:37

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-03 13:32:00

@nntaleb Our debate with Ioannidis,II Plus why “forecasting” and “evidence based” are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb HOW TO HANDLE A PANDEMIC Our debate with John Ioannidis. Plus why naive single point “forecasting” and “evidence based” methods are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb You should detect by eyeballing. Permalink 2020-08-03 10:20:31

@nntaleb פה بالعبراني Permalink 2020-08-03 02:30:13

@nntaleb How many hours for $300? Permalink 2020-08-02 23:59:43

@nntaleb This is not quite a PL. Zifplots are insufficient. You need EVT to prove it. Would love to replicate. Permalink 2020-08-02 20:58:51

@nntaleb BM did not like this http://www.chialvo.net/Curso/UBACurso/DIA3/Papers/SOC1.pdf Permalink 2020-08-02 20:53:38

@nntaleb The sandpile story is controversial & supposedly Bak did not have a proof… Permalink 2020-08-02 19:57:42

@nntaleb Blocked the imbecile. He is just a photographer. Permalink 2020-08-02 19:13:37

@nntaleb I have an inside story of Mandelbrot on Per Bak Permalink 2020-08-02 18:44:27

@nntaleb SYSTEMIC RISK: non-diversifiable. You can in principle break-up into n reactors to get the needed risk diversification/prevent Chernobyl from being too large. Permalink 2020-08-02 18:13:10

@nntaleb Systemic = 1 block. Nuclear is in a diff category (non subexponential) Permalink 2020-08-02 16:57:52

@nntaleb In Principia Politica, there is a rule: No institution without an expiration date. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:45:37

@nntaleb Voshart you imbecile this is how you get coloring, by comparison. An confirmed by genetics: Lybians looked no different from other Mediterraneans. You are an imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:42:59

@nntaleb He seems clueless about genetics. He is just a photographer using cultural notions. Many fail to get that Southern Mediterraneans are Western Eurasians (the Europe/Africa distinction is not accurate). Permalink 2020-08-02 15:39:28

@nntaleb Voshart, are you a geneticist? Permalink 2020-08-02 15:38:04

@nntaleb Went away recently Permalink 2020-08-02 13:36:59

@nntaleb Aspetta mi, vengo subito prima che la lasagna si raffreddi Permalink 2020-08-02 13:32:06

@nntaleb I will make it very simple for you: I am picking what method I like not the one you like and you can go fuck off. Simple enough? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:28:29

@nntaleb Dove? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:20:27

@nntaleb I am not saying NUCLEAR is not dangerous. It is in a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:35

@nntaleb I am not saying it is not dangerous. Just a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:05

@nntaleb NUCLEAR I NEVER said that nuclear energy was safe. I said that it does not fall under the Precautionary Principle as there is ~no systemic risk. Nuclear accidents are additive not multiplicative (unlike GMOs & viruses). The risk (for small reactors) remains local not systemic. Permalink 2020-08-02 11:27:10

@nntaleb Then why education? Now shd I get pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:40:26

@nntaleb Hi there Where did you get it from? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:28:24

@nntaleb Learning to cook from fresh dough. Mystery: Why did Sicily discontinue growing sumac? Permalink 2020-08-01 21:09:43

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff and find yourself a hobby with “utility” before you lecture us? Permalink 2020-08-01 20:28:39

@nntaleb My shoulder bans me from deadlifting… Permalink 2020-08-01 19:16:26

@nntaleb Thanks! What’s best of the 4 options? Pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:15:56

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-01 19:12:46

@nntaleb Can you do these rooms in business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:04:54

@nntaleb Charlie can students spontaneously create rooms? Permalink 2020-08-01 14:15:45

@nntaleb Mistake. This is NOT the inquisition. There were trials and sentences were delivered by a (lay) court. This is more like the period of terror during the French Revolution. Soon education will be ONLY delivered by special apolitical institutions like coding camps. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:51:02

@nntaleb We don’t care about costs. We need to be able to create breakout rooms. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:29:14

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-08-01 11:22:23

@nntaleb 80-100 Permalink 2020-08-01 11:20:05

@nntaleb I blame the NYT first. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:19:00

@nntaleb Please do not involve geopolitics, China-US or some conspiracy in a software discussion. The question is precise Zoom for Business of for Education. Do not compare to other methods. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:15:39

@nntaleb This is the Inquisition Permalink 2020-08-01 11:10:51

@nntaleb But a university affiliation is becoming a liability. All downside, no upside. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:08:22

@nntaleb Friends, for #RWRI 14, do you prefer Zoom for Business or Zoom for Education? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-01 10:45:33

@nntaleb No comment for now. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:28:39

@nntaleb That’s another matter. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:24:45

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-01 02:18:08

@nntaleb Without verification… Anyone getting anywhere close to a US university is a moron. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:14:31

@nntaleb Ovadiah Permalink 2020-07-31 18:21:00

@nntaleb Hi Scott You are missing the CENTRAL point: 1) is fragile what does not like volatility everything concave is fragile And reverse: antifragile = convex between a and b. Permalink 2020-07-31 15:42:14

@nntaleb 5) METASTATIC BUREAUCRACIES If you want an illustration, here is one. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:55:15

@nntaleb 4) CREDENTIALIZATION And note how Tedros mentions Harvard to credentialize Sunstein, which wipes out his defects and ignorance of probability. https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1288951939334574080?s=20 Repeat after me: Delenda WHO est. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:11:30

@nntaleb Nassim, he is a professor in a business school. Intellectual fraud is for them business as usual. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:01:04

@nntaleb 3) The Collection of bureaucrats *who meet* for a living and failed to get the risks of the pandemic early on when WE warned, costs us TRILLIONS. Now what do they do? They ADD more bureaucrats like that fraud Sunstein. Institutions learn via bankruptcy. WHO must be DEFUNDED. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:49:22

@nntaleb 2) Do not forget that @CassSunstein made it irrational to worry about the risks of the pandemic in February! WHO must be closed. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:17:56

@nntaleb FRAUD!!!!! If there is a reason to shut down the WHO, here it is. Cass Sunstein is the poster child of pseudo-empiricism. He failed to get pandemics early on and missed on the difference between additive & multiplicative risks. FRAUD! Permalink 2020-07-31 13:15:18

@nntaleb No to the Bisri Dam project. It is economically a scam, and environmentally a DISASTER. Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-07-31 12:52:38

@nntaleb You can return it to them and order here Permalink 2020-07-31 12:01:14

@nntaleb Can you return it and reorder from this? Permalink 2020-07-31 12:00:50

@nntaleb Where did you get yours? Permalink 2020-07-31 11:59:22

@nntaleb Here Permalink 2020-07-31 11:50:54

@nntaleb Yes, I was wondering. My SP02 is 98 when active, 94 when inactive and I thought there was a problem but realized there was none as the problem is the other way around. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:32:05

@nntaleb Hi, Who did you buy it from? We stopped the Book Depository. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:29:02

@nntaleb Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-07-31 11:23:40

@nntaleb Levantine ethics… Permalink 2020-07-30 23:01:08

@nntaleb Fucking moron what does my argument have anything to do with how conservatives behave? Permalink 2020-07-30 21:47:26

@nntaleb On citation rings Permalink 2020-07-30 21:31:44

@nntaleb Yes, I am a staunch advocate of masks (even when it was unpopular). But anyone gloating on the web about the death of Herman Cain is: + shabby + unprincipled + sordid + despicable De mortuis nihil nisi bonum Permalink 2020-07-30 19:53:21

@nntaleb Time to make this a nontechnical chapter in the new book, Vol2 of the Technical Incerto. How you will go bust on a favorable bet. Or why among other things @R_Thaler is a fraud. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp) Permalink 2020-07-30 19:39:10

@nntaleb Interesting warning signs of Alzheimer: He stopped playing bridge ~15 years before he was diagnosed with Alzheimer. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:56:58

@nntaleb The point is that I show in my book evidence that economics is just a citation ring. “Prestige” is just a scam. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:37:23

@nntaleb The idea is: Get data. Derive kernel distribution at bandwidth 1 Get MI[1] Derive kernel dist at finer bandwidth Get M[2] You see convergence as gains are smaller and smaller except for \infty Permalink 2020-07-30 17:15:11

@nntaleb No, there is small effect, so long as you do not use points but distributions. You need perfect relationship = infinity. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:07:05

@nntaleb The difference between continuous (differential) entropy and discrete does not extend to MI. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:49:54

@nntaleb This is an imbecilic interpretation. Sorry I block for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:45:38

@nntaleb Something everybody knows Permalink 2020-07-30 16:10:49

@nntaleb The idea is “is it more useful than temperature”? Permalink 2020-07-30 15:53:22

@nntaleb You’ll never grasp voting patterns & political positions of millennials unless you recognize that a new graduate in about anything theoretical (Bachelor, Master even PhD) earns less than a slightly trained plumber, truck driver, or a carpenter. Reflect & see why Univ. going bust. Permalink 2020-07-30 14:00:49

@nntaleb Many other approaches. Thanks, friends. Permalink 2020-07-30 13:44:54

@nntaleb True Permalink 2020-07-30 12:38:16

@nntaleb He was Levantine. Greek Orthodox. Permalink 2020-07-30 12:18:27

@nntaleb One approach Permalink 2020-07-30 12:09:57

@nntaleb This plus coffee helps you to wake up. [Reminder: non-math related cute comment = block] Permalink 2020-07-30 11:53:13

@nntaleb Genetics show the mummies were Levantine Permalink 2020-07-30 11:04:26

@nntaleb Can detect disease not health Permalink 2020-07-30 10:32:51

@nntaleb FACT DU JOUR Omar Sharif (born Michel Dimitri Shalhoub), an actor with brains: + Elite bridge player + Fluent >5 languages + OK in Greek (like many Alexandrians) + Degree in mathematics + Did not socialize w/actors (except. romance w/actresses) Permalink 2020-07-30 10:31:30

@nntaleb So far I haven’t called anyone a fraud who didn’t turn out to be a fraud. Permalink 2020-07-30 10:10:53

@nntaleb Many people, including some doctors, don’t seem to get what a filter means. https://twitter.com/aashiq/status/1288643170058764289?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-30 02:13:35

@nntaleb Did anyone think SPO2 as instant (5 seconds) filter for Covid-19? Isn’t there more signal than with temperature? Permalink 2020-07-30 00:46:39

@nntaleb The debate with John Ioannidis On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables, with @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Latest version Permalink 2020-07-29 22:08:33

@nntaleb I revise the book every time you read it. Permalink 2020-07-29 21:42:57

@nntaleb ? no idea. Permalink 2020-07-29 20:22:39

@nntaleb Was looking for your address to mail you the book. Permalink 2020-07-29 18:52:20

@nntaleb Pour commence, Argth la Arg tangente hyperbolic, la reciproque de la tanh n’est pas ½ Log… Permalink 2020-07-29 15:22:01

@nntaleb Cet apres-midi. Permalink 2020-07-29 15:12:09

@nntaleb ECONTALK with @EconTalker https://youtu.be/CyOsUbK8PiE via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-29 15:08:19

@nntaleb Imbecilic remark. What does democracy have to do with your own house? Democracy is about voter participation not letting people troll your private feed. Permalink 2020-07-29 14:22:04

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ndehouche/status/1288347895993753600 Permalink 2020-07-29 12:59:52

@nntaleb You need to de-discretize your calcs. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:49:24

@nntaleb More “complicated” in statistical domains. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:29:01

@nntaleb And >2 m people visiting and commuting daily Permalink 2020-07-29 12:06:21

@nntaleb For every person you block, you get 10 new followers. Why? Because the quality of your thread improves markedly; comments are worth reading. Protect your thread. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:43:45

@nntaleb In cities, indeed. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:34:38

@nntaleb Διόρθωση: Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο της *ελληνικής γλώσσας* στο Zoom (Current level: Koiné) Σας ευχαριστώ όλους Permalink 2020-07-29 00:13:37

@nntaleb DM please. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-29 00:04:54

@nntaleb Could be 2 separate problems. The old must not pass on charges… Permalink 2020-07-28 22:28:42

@nntaleb Great Summary Permalink 2020-07-28 22:04:09

@nntaleb For a citation, I had to get a copy of @PTetlock’s (🐁”Phil the rat”) *Superforecasting* & it is worse than I thought, from his work. [Co-author is a shill/lobbyist paid by large corporations to play down their “risk”] It has major, major mistakes & flaws. What to do? Permalink 2020-07-28 21:21:25

@nntaleb I peer review ALL my work one way or another. Permalink 2020-07-28 21:11:34

@nntaleb Additive & multiplicative Risks should never be compared to one another. Multiplicative => fat tails. We have limited the precautionary principle ONLY to multiplicative risks: + Pandemics (only 72 in history) + Genetic modifications spread in nature Permalink 2020-07-28 21:09:00

@nntaleb The way it works: readers read what a reliable friend recommends, etc. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:32:49

@nntaleb Hi there Can you return it back to them? Further instructions to follow. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:16:34

@nntaleb My experience since “Skin in The Game” is to leave it to social media: genuine readers commenting for potential genuine readers. No more critics who filter & decide what *lesser* readers should like or avoid. My books are not sent to the media & “intellectuals”. F*** them. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:58:41

@nntaleb Mush me2lé! Mshwé! W iza me2lé bzeit zeitun msh mazolla (bi fakkru atyab bil mazolla) Permalink 2020-07-28 19:45:06

@nntaleb I block for sophistry. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:25:42

@nntaleb Shipping next week. But if in a rush, cancel and get this immediately. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:02:52

@nntaleb Plugged out (injury) so just low weights. Permalink 2020-07-28 18:41:18

@nntaleb On it Permalink 2020-07-28 18:36:36

@nntaleb Once in a while, the reverse helps. Permalink 2020-07-28 17:47:14

@nntaleb How strong are both of you now? Permalink 2020-07-28 16:45:36

@nntaleb I tried 5 sets of 10, doing math btw sets. Permalink 2020-07-28 16:21:56

@nntaleb Takes a week to know the benefits Permalink 2020-07-28 15:34:21

@nntaleb Separate day Permalink 2020-07-28 15:33:12

@nntaleb Also 5 sets of 10 presses Permalink 2020-07-28 15:28:43

@nntaleb Did you try the 5 sets of 10 deadlifts? Permalink 2020-07-28 15:24:31

@nntaleb Necessary Permalink 2020-07-28 14:21:16

@nntaleb My problem with him. Permalink 2020-07-28 12:18:41

@nntaleb This was promoted in my feed. These ideas that are supposed to help your life destroy it. If a book can be summarized it’s not a book; if you get something in 15 minutes it is not worth getting. Permalink 2020-07-28 11:54:26

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Where? Permalink 2020-07-28 11:44:27

@nntaleb of ours Permalink 2020-07-28 03:02:05

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Not at all. The argument is about convexity. Permalink 2020-07-28 02:00:55

@nntaleb Haha Campaign started in March. Permalink 2020-07-28 01:46:08

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, being “right” means agreeing with you? Permalink 2020-07-27 23:49:26

@nntaleb You are clueless. Permalink 2020-07-27 23:41:43

@nntaleb Attitude? What “attitude”? Permalink 2020-07-27 20:39:36

@nntaleb Will restock up next week or but meanwhile try @zachobront’s link. Permalink 2020-07-27 20:26:38

@nntaleb OK, émtin? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:59:54

@nntaleb Leish ma bte3zemné ana? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:54:55

@nntaleb A reminder from PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-27 19:09:08

@nntaleb Your statement is MORONIC. As you get more information & granularity you target your measures tfor costs and efficacy Permalink 2020-07-27 18:37:52

@nntaleb I wonder why the cancel culture does not go after the chain of retractions instead of innocent idiots like @sapinker Permalink 2020-07-27 18:08:09

@nntaleb “National IQ” is practically an academic fraud. But the fact it went for so long is quite shocking. Permalink 2020-07-27 18:01:20

@nntaleb @ndehouche Permalink 2020-07-27 17:53:16

@nntaleb Squares Permalink 2020-07-27 17:21:25

@nntaleb Reread our paper. Explained there. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:58:28

@nntaleb We have answered that with our degree of fattailedness of certain class of events >>> all others, hence it is not frivilous and generalized worry. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:52:25

@nntaleb I block idiot. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:41:29

@nntaleb NOTHING to do with Regime switching. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:20:21

@nntaleb Was it Amazon or Scribe? Permalink 2020-07-27 14:19:20

@nntaleb I blocked him. I block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-27 13:09:58

@nntaleb It is not the same problem and this is not a highshool problem. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:43:40

@nntaleb Assuming it is an error… Thanks! will investigate. I am always worried when no errors are revealed. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:21:01

@nntaleb The distribution is Uniform below 1. Very very strange. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:16:28

@nntaleb The distribution is uniform below 1 ! Permalink 2020-07-27 12:15:37

@nntaleb Great counterintuitive result in probability. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:10:50

@nntaleb The article is for scientists not for politically driven imbeciles like you. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:13:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-27 02:06:15

@nntaleb Cancel and use our link. Ships immediately. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:04:47

@nntaleb And it feels different: you pull from the nape of the neck Permalink 2020-07-27 02:01:04

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-27 01:59:20

@nntaleb É. Koyné ba3ref shwayy. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:19:36

@nntaleb Here it is more, as it is 90% of the 10 max Permalink 2020-07-27 01:18:04

@nntaleb Grazie. Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:11:40

@nntaleb Also, for variery, tried 10 reps deadlift, 5 times today, and the same with presses yesterday. Feels great, like a sprint. Watched elevated hearbeat and saw it crash. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:08:19

@nntaleb That’s the work equivalent of intermittent fasting. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:05:18

@nntaleb No comparison. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:03:45

@nntaleb Much simpler to cut calories. I reach ketosis eating pasta when I do OMAD. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:02:34

@nntaleb Haven’t practiced in 40 years! Permalink 2020-07-26 21:53:21

@nntaleb Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:51:44

@nntaleb Babbler, not speaker. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:49:50

@nntaleb Αγαπητοί φίλοι και φίλες, Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο στο Zoom Permalink 2020-07-26 21:45:10

@nntaleb Link? Permalink 2020-07-26 21:19:54

@nntaleb He never understood convexity. But cities are Lindy by virtue of location. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:17:40

@nntaleb Traders Permalink 2020-07-26 21:15:09

@nntaleb Cities when not monstrously large. Size is bad. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:49:29

@nntaleb In French, same thing. “Valeurs propres”. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:44:20

@nntaleb CITIES ARE FRAGILE Flaneured around NYC for a day. I spent 2/3 of my life in the area. Saaaaaaaad. Idiots claiming cities “more efficient” don’t realize the concavity/fragility to shocks. See #Antifragile: Rome went from 2.2M to few 100K & took >1500 years to come back. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:06:55

@nntaleb The conductor of the USJ (Jesuit Univ.) chorus in Beirut is a Lebanese woman (I assume Muslim from her name). https://twitter.com/USJLiban/status/1287462673551175680 Permalink 2020-07-26 19:30:44

@nntaleb The rarest (and most valuable) thing on this planet: a clear mind. Permalink 2020-07-26 16:59:15

@nntaleb After a lull, research is undergoing a back-migration to the land of grape leaves, thyme, and olive oil: the Republics of the Eastern Mediterranean. Thanks @polemitis for these ambitious projects; more to come. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:28:03

@nntaleb False negatives are a function of contageousness. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:18:39

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-26 14:03:50

@nntaleb Another misunderstood convexity: frequent testing beats precision. A solution is STARING at us. “Evidence based” idiots can’t easily get it because, as with MASKS, they can’t understand cheap alternatives. Permalink 2020-07-26 12:01:04

@nntaleb Cristo in Italiano e Francese (Montecristo, Monte Cristo) Permalink 2020-07-26 10:37:25

@nntaleb Fi PDF? Permalink 2020-07-25 20:31:05

@nntaleb My friend, not the squid ink sauce. Colored pasta. Permalink 2020-07-25 19:03:46

@nntaleb COVID: A central ethical point: intergenerational liability. Like many central points, goes to the footnote. Permalink 2020-07-25 15:38:11

@nntaleb I avoided mentioning Shiism because it is not clear to me. But for Alawis, it is. Permalink 2020-07-25 14:54:30

@nntaleb Imbecile White != Nordic Permalink 2020-07-25 14:41:41

@nntaleb A gracious and very scientific debate with Ioannidis et al., @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo We add: 1- How individual risks do not map to collective risks. 2- The False Dichotomy economy/disease mitigation. For comments (submitting today) Permalink 2020-07-25 12:14:08

@nntaleb 2) Some religions allow “Taqiyya”, i.e. concealing one’s creed or modifying it to the outside: Gnostic religions, Alevis, Alawis, Druze. Never Sunni Islam or Greek Orthodoxy. Religious history becomes muddled. Early East-Med Christians would rather die than deny their religion. Permalink 2020-07-25 11:44:32

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-07-25 11:38:36

@nntaleb No. DNA has not changed. Permalink 2020-07-25 10:59:20

@nntaleb Was invited to debate him. Permalink 2020-07-25 01:07:30

@nntaleb Taqiyya! Permalink 2020-07-24 22:53:31

@nntaleb The Marranos were nonChristians who upon the inquisition faked Christianity to aboid persecution. Academic Marranos fake it to avoid being cancelled. Some SJW Marranos will secretly vote Trump. Permalink 2020-07-24 22:47:10

@nntaleb Wrong, it is linear Permalink 2020-07-24 21:47:28

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 20:10:08

@nntaleb Yes, it looks much more elegant in CDF Permalink 2020-07-24 19:37:00

@nntaleb We are debating Ioannidis, thanks to @pierrepinson and @spyrosmakrid Our final answer to him was just completed, to post soon. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:34:53

@nntaleb Not the same thing. I was looking for the density, not the CDF. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:29:14

@nntaleb They should cut the “arabic”, to TUnision, Algerian, etc. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:26:28

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-07-24 17:19:59

@nntaleb Yes, sums of Beta distributed B[1/n,1], with a trick. for n=2, pi/4, verifying the general formula. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:16:53

@nntaleb @PZalloua and I will join the U. (soon). We will force them to change the titles: The Prince in Italian, The Republic in Greek, all in the ORIGINAL language. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:08:36

@nntaleb Right I misread X instead of X^n. It is one transformation before. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:03:18

@nntaleb CORRECTION: S^n-1 in numerator Permalink 2020-07-24 13:43:15

@nntaleb Application Permalink 2020-07-24 13:42:35

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 13:39:33

@nntaleb Lyom! Min jéyé? Permalink 2020-07-24 13:13:58

@nntaleb Yes, imbeciles. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:54:20

@nntaleb Voila. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:53:14

@nntaleb INEQUALITY DU JOUR This one is easy enough for morning coffee. Helps start the weekend. [Non-math commentators, please do not pollute the thread] Permalink 2020-07-24 12:15:18

@nntaleb His wife is native Syrian speaking from Turkey. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:28:59

@nntaleb Doesn’t look Lebanese at all. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:15:48

@nntaleb It was never inside the article Permalink 2020-07-23 22:35:48

@nntaleb OK Permalink 2020-07-23 22:28:40

@nntaleb I can put you there. Give me a picture. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:27:26

@nntaleb A Dutcgg photographer clueless about population genetics. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:20:21

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-23 22:17:31

@nntaleb He was Med that’s not Middle Eastern Permalink 2020-07-23 22:16:10

@nntaleb Insufferable… with some… Permalink 2020-07-23 21:47:29

@nntaleb Completamente Permalink 2020-07-23 16:04:50

@nntaleb Which author? Permalink 2020-07-23 11:56:46

@nntaleb And remember the PDF is Free https://researchers.one/article/2020-01-21… https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-23 01:38:29

@nntaleb Unwavering in friendship, unwavery in enmity. Permalink 2020-07-23 01:36:00

@nntaleb Struck a deal Permalink 2020-07-22 16:12:18

@nntaleb That people who asked your type of question should NOT read the book. Permalink 2020-07-22 16:01:13

@nntaleb I was irked at the framing by the NYT Permalink 2020-07-22 15:54:08

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping [Next 2 weeks]. https://thescribestore.com/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb And remember the PDF is Free https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-22 15:53:09

@nntaleb Yes, the outcome & her end “position” is not the question. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:48:15

@nntaleb Actually worse: he was bad to OLD slaves. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:23:05

@nntaleb “Synchronous belief” Permalink 2020-07-22 14:20:40

@nntaleb I like “Mediterranean Studies” or Ancient World Studies since the pillars were Babylon + Egypt Permalink 2020-07-22 14:03:33

@nntaleb Excellent. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:56:20

@nntaleb There is another one, but yours is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:35:47

@nntaleb I saw a commentary on Deuteronomy. There is another one by Rashi but still deciphering. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:24:31

@nntaleb No, imbecile. She was bigottering IN THE article, even if she did not cancel him. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:18:29

@nntaleb 4) Midrash Sefre. Rabbi Yossi HaGalili: אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:14:51

@nntaleb אמר רבי יוסי הגלילי, וכי תעלה על דעתך, שאדם הולך אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:08:44

@nntaleb There is something YOU are not getting, aside from your defective anachronistic reasoning: the NYT DOES NOT publish stuff outside very very narrow parameters (I have 5 Op-Eds there). Permalink 2020-07-22 12:41:17

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:37:20

@nntaleb Thanks but when did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:11:21

@nntaleb They filter Op-Eds, do refuse mine systematically. I published 5 Op-Eds there in the past when the opinion was lined up to theirs. My point isn’t the opinion but the very idea of having to debate canceling a past figure. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:53:53

@nntaleb 3) The Wahabis destroyed ancient ruins in Saudi Arabia (including Islamic ones) to “prevent” idolatry. Soon we will be bulldozing ruins built by slaves (Great Pyramid/Coliseum), then structures built by labor w/o medical benefits, then those by nonvegetarian architects. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:38:10

@nntaleb (Yes I know the NYT ends up “opposed” to the idea of “cancelling Aristotle”, but the mere fact that they suggest the possibility …) Permalink 2020-07-22 11:22:31

@nntaleb 2/ By retrospective bigotteering, they will end up canceling ALL their ancestors, 99.9% of the contents of libraries and any institution older than 5 years will eventually end up canceling itself. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:17:01

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:09:01

@nntaleb Any reference? Permalink 2020-07-22 11:06:37

@nntaleb The NYT suggests cancelling Aristotle. This is retrospective bigotteering; it implies moral values DO NOT evolve. People need to be judged with respect to the morals OF THEIR OWN TIME. (But we can be harsh w/Napoleon who reinstated slavery.) Permalink 2020-07-22 10:53:05

@nntaleb Bingo, Nassim. Saudi/Gulf people despise Levantines and Maghrebis, consider them “impure”. Permalink 2020-07-22 10:36:24

@nntaleb OK same ting Permalink 2020-07-22 00:58:07

@nntaleb Squid ink. A lot of squid ink. Permalink 2020-07-22 00:22:47

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-21 23:58:43

@nntaleb Disagree. CI says roughly you cannot build a function to project over n steps without n-1, and n-1 without n-2. Non analytic, no derivatives, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 23:32:20

@nntaleb TeXpad Permalink 2020-07-21 23:06:26

@nntaleb Alla yer7ama. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:33:18

@nntaleb Tell them Nice try. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:06:58

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi might manage to escape justice for a while, but… where is he going to go? Nice to see one’s villains in a cage, from which they can’t get out. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:30:05

@nntaleb Something tells me that the risk is dose-related, so fewer deaths in the summer, mistakenly attributed to the unavoidable mutation. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:01:20

@nntaleb No cream. Just foam from the beans. Permalink 2020-07-21 19:19:40

@nntaleb The olive smell is intentional. This is the first probability book ever sold in Med grocery stores and luxury olive oil stores. Permalink 2020-07-21 18:46:55

@nntaleb You have the knack of posting videos of me with 20 kg more. Permalink 2020-07-21 17:21:07

@nntaleb Don’t worry if the Lebanese judiciary is frozen. The FT is on the job. This is today. Not a good day to be #RiadPonzi https://www.ft.com/content/d2d63b9b-9669-4ec0-93e9-ed97cbeb9261 via @financialtimes Permalink 2020-07-21 16:54:51

@nntaleb It is all starting now for Lebanese Central Bank Governor #RiadPonzi; we had to wait 10 m after I exposed him at USJ. He tried (& failed) to smear me (but hurt some of my friends) Being #vindictive, I manifest my elation watching the predicted fall of a villain & personal enemy. Permalink 2020-07-21 16:44:19

@nntaleb I don’t think so. Here is the PDF Permalink 2020-07-21 16:04:54

@nntaleb NY Permalink 2020-07-21 16:01:53

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-21 14:58:17

@nntaleb We have a note on country IQ to write. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:53:37

@nntaleb THINGS I LEARNED IN 2020 @rorysutherland told me that working outside, in a garden or in a park doesn’t feel like work. So long as it is outside. Works! Trying it for stuff that is *work* & requires colossal effort: s.a. reading emails from NJ, comments from referees, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:37:23

@nntaleb We knew “nudge” (Thaler and Sunstein) relies on a buch of severe errors in probability. It is actually worse: vastly non-empirical claims. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:04:21

@nntaleb Must be Lebanese, Tiyan is Semitic (Tyan = bird in Lebanese, Tuyyoyo = Arab in Syriac) and not found in French. Plus look at the picture Permalink 2020-07-21 12:56:07

@nntaleb I block imbeciles. Sorry. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:27:28

@nntaleb The same people who worry about “costs” of mitigating the pandemic spend trillions on weaponry “for insurance”. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:15:20

@nntaleb Not segregated in the modern sense. Town vs country, educated vs uneducated. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:09:09

@nntaleb Same tools same coffee grind. Never forget cold water after every sip, the East-Med way. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:05:47

@nntaleb @ndehouche can give you lists, St Augustine being the most known Permalink 2020-07-21 11:31:40

@nntaleb How much $$do they charge? Permalink 2020-07-21 11:03:20

@nntaleb How much is Amz UK? Could be OK Permalink 2020-07-21 10:57:49

@nntaleb Indeed the only podcasts I do is with @EconTalker as, over time, I learned refined economic reasoning from him & developed arguments over a 13 y conversation. Permalink 2020-07-21 10:53:56

@nntaleb Vivi in italia? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:07:54

@nntaleb In 2 or 3 days there will be a link to ship to Europe at minimal additional cost. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:05:48

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:04:54

@nntaleb Grazie. Impari qualcosa ogni giorno. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:02:53

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:57:48

@nntaleb Which is what I asked @Normonic, no? Or is it different when it is not a price, where you use the plural? In Fr it is “combien” for both Permalink 2020-07-21 00:56:37

@nntaleb In a store how you say “how much”? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:50:54

@nntaleb When you ask for a price, you say “quanto” or “quanti”? Curious Permalink 2020-07-21 00:32:52

@nntaleb You are debating someone I’ve blocked for serious defects in thinking. So keep that in mind when you get spurious arguments about what is or what is not “native”. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:29:33

@nntaleb You mean Central Med. Sicily = Central Med Permalink 2020-07-21 00:22:58

@nntaleb Quanto? 35? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:18:46

@nntaleb That’s the narrative used against Palestinians and used by the French to keep Algeria. Permalink 2020-07-20 22:51:32

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-20 21:38:58

@nntaleb We had 6x capacity, 2 y waiting list. Permalink 2020-07-20 21:22:27

@nntaleb 3indak nbid w Nero di Sepia. Shu baddo l wa7ad gheir shi? Permalink 2020-07-20 20:47:30

@nntaleb 3inna RWRI Permalink 2020-07-20 20:44:06

@nntaleb Mush kll l wa2t blebnén: 3 shor bil sené Permalink 2020-07-20 20:36:05

@nntaleb Fuck, no. The Levant only 2. Different culture/origins/history. Permalink 2020-07-20 20:03:46

@nntaleb WTF do you mean “finally”? Permalink 2020-07-20 19:49:57

@nntaleb If the thing is linear y1=a x, y2=b x, it is the integral of the absolute difference Abs[(b-a) x]. If same sign, =(b-a)(x2^2-x1^2)/2, otherwise pick {x1,x2,x3} and use absolute. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:46:59

@nntaleb False dichotomy: it is an error to ignore that the pandemic itself has economic costs and make a trade-off between health and economics. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:26:50

@nntaleb OK OK libya Permalink 2020-07-20 18:31:03

@nntaleb Lybia and Tunisia had Arabic J1e coming in noncoastal areas because nomads could handle the conditions, similar to Arabis. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:29:21

@nntaleb Most in the North did until the 1600s speak a version of it. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:27:41

@nntaleb Baddna zoom @Decafquest Permalink 2020-07-20 18:26:11

@nntaleb Straw man? leb dialect is treated as a “lahja” and descendant of Dus7a Permalink 2020-07-20 18:20:23

@nntaleb Easier to implement. Lebanese and Western Syrian. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:19:20

@nntaleb Konfirmed. Only Tunisia has Peninsular gene flow. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:17:39

@nntaleb heik 3am bi sir Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:33

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:02

@nntaleb Ktir burokratiyyé honik. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:41:58

@nntaleb Hi Not recommended. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:40:21

@nntaleb Some historical facts: Algerians (particularly in coastal cities) spoke Latin for CENTURIES before the French learned it & bastardized it into what is now their language. Make the #SouthMed great again! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:39:04

@nntaleb Evidence: 1 min ago Permalink 2020-07-20 16:46:49

@nntaleb Crap. Permalink 2020-07-20 16:45:29

@nntaleb There is no teleological “forward”. There is one condition: very small steps locally (with occasional large payoffs). Permalink 2020-07-20 16:05:39

@nntaleb Interestingly Rimbaud worked for a Lebanese dealer César Tiyyan Permalink 2020-07-20 14:48:03

@nntaleb The difference betw Classical Arabic and Levantine is stark here. Proves one can reach yuuuuuuuuuge linguistic prowess in Lebanese. This poetry that is never taught in school, repressed by the Arabists & the “left” that aims to destroys nonelite/local languages. @Firsou 1/n Permalink 2020-07-20 14:47:22

@nntaleb Not the point: reverse engineering produces compounding errors under dimensionality. Permalink 2020-07-20 14:20:56

@nntaleb Ana tlmizak! Permalink 2020-07-20 13:58:02

@nntaleb Below 70 Permalink 2020-07-20 13:32:16

@nntaleb My explanation why those discussing genetics of intelligence don’t understand basic multivariate statistics. Also applies to the BS claims by @sapinker. Permalink 2020-07-20 13:04:29

@nntaleb Leish hal akl khara? Mshklét l balad 2yura mtlak. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:59:40

@nntaleb Ana mush mtl Twayné W 2asir, 3ndé 3ilé2at ma3 l kll w ma3 l mashri2iyyé… bass msh ma3 l Salafiyyé wl 3urubiyyé Permalink 2020-07-20 12:51:33

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:13:54

@nntaleb Ma be2ra illa bil mashr2é (Levantine) Permalink 2020-07-20 11:45:06

@nntaleb Here is what he got confused with Permalink 2020-07-20 11:43:33

@nntaleb There is an “i” too many Permalink 2020-07-20 11:39:00

@nntaleb Ana baddé lézém lé2é jém3a 3a zaw2é bté3zmné. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:36:38

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:33:16

@nntaleb Fi byetrko, fi byeb2o, fi byejo! Ba3d ma @PZalloua 2arrar yb2a bi baladna bhal fatra lse3bé, mfakkar ana erja3, la intemé la jém3a bi Lebnén la 2awwé l ma3nawiyyét (w 3allém l tlémiz Data Science). Permalink 2020-07-20 11:29:26

@nntaleb Salibi was a fraud, I block people who promote frauds. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:02:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-20 11:00:54

@nntaleb In old Arabic, Ajami عجمي meant Persian or foreigner, as there was an expression: “al 3rbu wal 3ajamu”. Seemingly same in Osmali. Permalink 2020-07-20 00:22:20

@nntaleb It seems to me from what little Osmali I can make out, that Acemoglu is “son of the Persian”, Acemi+Oglu Permalink 2020-07-20 00:02:23

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-19 23:09:39

@nntaleb Yes in text explain that the collective is AF at the expense of individual restaurants. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:08:06

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 23:04:12

@nntaleb Never thought that. Restaurants have ALWAYS been fragile. The quality benefits from bankruptcies. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:03:44

@nntaleb I live there 3 mo/year … Permalink 2020-07-19 22:55:58

@nntaleb 2eltello Permalink 2020-07-19 22:40:37

@nntaleb Heik 2elello la 7sein mbére7. Permalink 2020-07-19 22:30:03

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order? Permalink 2020-07-19 21:01:42

@nntaleb @PZalloua is writing one. A real one Permalink 2020-07-19 18:46:41

@nntaleb He knows Classical Arabic but his native language is Levantine, 75% of a language away from Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-19 18:45:24

@nntaleb nitpicking: claim not claims Permalink 2020-07-19 17:21:17

@nntaleb nitpicking: speack IN French Permalink 2020-07-19 17:20:44

@nntaleb GODEL DU JOUR Someone hearing me speak french, – Ah you speak French [in French] Me [in French]: Not at all I am faking it (“je fais semblant”) – Sorry I mistakenly thought you spoke Fr Me [in French]: Everyone makes mistakes. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:15:18

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-19 17:09:25

@nntaleb Yes I blocked for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:01:30

@nntaleb The claims that I blocked Saifedean Ammous based on private communication is a lie. I blocked him on the basis of dangerously crankish and conspiratorial public feed. I block all lunatics. Gabish? Permalink 2020-07-19 16:51:29

@nntaleb Leish ya Bourashid ma btktob bil 7 mtlna la nefham bsr3a? Permalink 2020-07-19 13:19:54

@nntaleb Free PDF Permalink 2020-07-19 12:08:57

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 6 Footnotes. a) PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE The quality of hardcover books released now is so bad, as it publishers knew nobody would care about the book after 2 years. b) Few publishers are in for the 3rd wave: Penguin (UK), Knopf, etc. Why? It’s a small market! Permalink 2020-07-19 12:06:06

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 5 So, need to avoid “launches” to avoid the promiscuous 1st wave buyers. My books will not be launched/distributed, just to avoid the buyer who *buys books* rather than someone who wants the specific topic. I started my own publishing for StConsFTails. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:52:01

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 4 I am only interested in the 3rd wave (FBR, INCERTO-1, is ~20 y old); I am in a different business. I shd avoid the First Wave buyer, who doesn’t count long term. They rely on book reviewers (not time), e.g. that BSVendor @EasterbrookG for the NYT. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 3 Most Publishers make $from the First Wave, with increasingly lower quality paper that degrades w/time. Their staff isn’t even equipped for the 3rd Wave as no credits/promotions beyond the first/2nd year when the book is attributed to a specific editor Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 2 Then they move on to the next book & books go to low margin paperback & eventually die. 2nd Wave: Few books survive, only if they have #Lindy attributes, & or if some academic conversation props them up. Third Wave: One in 1,000 -10,000 makes it. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 1 First Wave: Fashion buyers, the class of people who systematically buy NEW “idea books”. The entire book industry organized to sell to them. Books must be “in the conversation”. The hardcover sales is where the $$$are made. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is what I am saying. Tribes and national statism are not the same thing. See PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-19 11:26:03

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 11:01:04

@nntaleb The dark story of the “enlightenment”. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:00:11

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-19 10:56:22

@nntaleb Just ordered. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-19 02:24:50

@nntaleb Ktir 2awiyyé Permalink 2020-07-19 00:16:01

@nntaleb Thanks Mansour! mt3addar it is, from Hydra AND, mysteriously, from an old Semitic tale about a donkey that grows heads when you cut one off. [Practically all Greek myth have a more ancient Aegyptian or Semitic counterpart] Te3dir تِعدير = antifragilty Permalink 2020-07-18 20:49:25

@nntaleb mt3addar! the right meaning. Permalink 2020-07-18 20:20:01

@nntaleb How about متلدن from تلدين, annealing? Permalink 2020-07-18 20:09:31

@nntaleb مش كافي Permalink 2020-07-18 20:07:09

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-18 20:01:59

@nntaleb 3am nt2arrab! Permalink 2020-07-18 19:58:50

@nntaleb לָֹא, יעני תחססנ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:52:22

@nntaleb In Hebrew was Anti shabir אנטי שביר Permalink 2020-07-18 19:49:41

@nntaleb robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:48:12

@nntaleb يعني اكل دعك… و تحسن Permalink 2020-07-18 19:46:36

@nntaleb منيحا هيده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:45:19

@nntaleb لئ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:44:19

@nntaleb متخبط ؟ كلمه جديده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:43:10

@nntaleb No no no Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:45

@nntaleb No no no ماكن= robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:27

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DISCUSSION Looking for a term close to Antifragile in Levantine (not necessarily Antifragile) for a translation of the article with @HsenAndil and @Zzeghedrane. It does not have to be literal Permalink 2020-07-18 19:19:12

@nntaleb Yes, you are right. This was not published… I didn’t recognize my words as I usually polish before putting in a book. Permalink 2020-07-18 18:37:01

@nntaleb I NEVER wrote this Permalink 2020-07-18 17:16:51

@nntaleb If you want. If so, pls add + ergodicity + IQ + GMO(s) + Brier Permalink 2020-07-18 17:13:48

@nntaleb The Khazar theory is but, was some BS by a political journalist. Permalink 2020-07-18 17:06:55

@nntaleb Hold off might get something better Permalink 2020-07-18 13:52:44

@nntaleb But can’t get the distinct Koura smell. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:45:01

@nntaleb I speculate that, aside from the dimensionality problem, e-books cannot produce odors, so I guess no olive oil. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1284470642180587521 Permalink 2020-07-18 13:43:20

@nntaleb How much is shipping? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:37:47

@nntaleb Yes, of course, many historians are rigorous; which part of “usually” was not clear? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:35:19

@nntaleb We changed supplier. New one delivers immediately. You can cancel and reorder. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:33:50

@nntaleb “Orders” Permalink 2020-07-18 13:31:38

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:20:35

@nntaleb No, Aleppo: many look like him there. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:41:11

@nntaleb Cannot resist. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:31:40

@nntaleb 2) This is a “mamluk nobleman from Aleppo”. Explain how one could be BOTH slave and nobleman except in a structure similar to Mafia made man. Historians are usually not very bright; their classifications are absurd & they don’t have the guts or intellect to question them. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:25:48

@nntaleb Ingram the distributor is incompetent. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:13:57

@nntaleb No fucking imbecile, this is IN COMPARISON to other populations. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:12:41

@nntaleb HISTORICAL MUSING of the day: MAFIA & MAMELUKS The Mameluks were military “slaves” (oft. Chris. born) who were paradoxically the ruling class. How? Same w/MADE MEN in the Mafia. Once in you can’t get out. You are both owned by the mafia & part owner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamluk Permalink 2020-07-18 12:10:50

@nntaleb Jaffer, block nitpickers. This has nothing to do with the gender of the predator. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:22:56

@nntaleb He is OK but no scholar. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:57

@nntaleb The biggest BS in discourse is claiming “people are self-interested and *rational*”. No. It is not so “rational” at the individual level; it is rational at the group level to wear mask under multiplicative risks because YOU are part of the multiplication. https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1284190658060668928 Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:02

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 23:17:38

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? This is giving moral support to 000s of youth. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:03:20

@nntaleb Fuck, no. I’ve never seen an economist do real world statistics right. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:00:50

@nntaleb The precedent has begun. Detenuring is easy: close depts. Rent-seeking at the expense of middle class parents eventually has an end. Detenured professors in social science are unskilled labor outside citation rings. You can’t use an economist for gardening or moving furniture. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:45:09

@nntaleb The Indicator function gives you Pi. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:37:05

@nntaleb You represent the East Med. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:59:34

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 18:49:57

@nntaleb This is heroic. 1) Zalloua stays in Lebanon to be honorable/not a deserter. 2) Joins the univ. of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch (even better). 3) We are starting the EAST MED DATA SCIENCE CENTER. 4) Balamand is a 12 C Crusader outpost (Belmont), 6 km from Amioun. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:44:18

@nntaleb Siesta. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:16:46

@nntaleb Genetically, Meds are not made for the sun. 6000-3000 years is not enough. Their skin wrinkles. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:05:56

@nntaleb Why do I despise nitpickers? Tautology in LOGIC is a statement that is true by necessity. Do you mind if I block you? Don’t be offended. It is simple discipline: I managed in my life and in my Twitter feed to get rid of nitpickers. Permalink 2020-07-17 16:58:18

@nntaleb Fox News will some day discover that thing commonly known as tautology. https://fxn.ws/30oLmI2 #FoxNews Permalink 2020-07-17 16:10:23

@nntaleb Not always and not for everyone. Money cured my desire for luxuries. Permalink 2020-07-17 15:48:45

@nntaleb Siesta Permalink 2020-07-17 15:22:25

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-17 14:55:50

@nntaleb That fund? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march Permalink 2020-07-17 14:54:54

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-17 13:41:41

@nntaleb Vero Permalink 2020-07-17 13:37:44

@nntaleb @tomsmith585 https://link.medium.com/ZpadefF7b8 Permalink 2020-07-17 13:33:05

@nntaleb I know it’s comedy. Problem is many don’t Permalink 2020-07-17 13:09:18

@nntaleb Weyn l Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-17 13:04:18

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME! Absense of sense of humor is a marker of a total inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, maxbitcoiners, Salafis, Protestant zealots, NYTcopyeditors, CancelCulturistas & others w/seriously defective intellects. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:55:45

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME thing! Absense of humor is a sign of inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, Salafis, zealots, etc. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:44:52

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people who write nonsense. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:38:45

@nntaleb Thanks to lax law enforcement in some U.S. cities these strategies might be actually used to promote mask use– a step up from social shaming. Permalink 2020-07-17 11:10:11

@nntaleb Any function of it. Permalink 2020-07-17 10:48:45

@nntaleb Why? This is both true and not racist at all since NonGaussian. Permalink 2020-07-17 01:45:50

@nntaleb And the highest title was “second teacher”, as nobody could reach the level of Aristotle. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Farabi Permalink 2020-07-16 22:30:22

@nntaleb There were tonnnnnnnnns of Greek speaking people in the Khalifate (my ancestors and all educated pple in the coastal Levant). But Arabic language thinkers worshiped Aristotle but relied on “the interpreter” who wrote in Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:27:52

@nntaleb حلوة يريت استعملتها لما كتبت انتيهشاش Permalink 2020-07-16 22:12:17

@nntaleb Culinarily, America is now a Med colony. Permalink 2020-07-16 19:13:03

@nntaleb Having a lot of Twitter followers… not necessarily Permalink 2020-07-16 18:32:34

@nntaleb “Israeli style”? You mean Lebanese. Permalink 2020-07-16 18:29:43

@nntaleb You said Arabic doesn’t work Permalink 2020-07-16 18:28:53

@nntaleb As usual, they went to Alexandria … then. Athens was a relic. Permalink 2020-07-16 17:16:38

@nntaleb There is a yuuuuuuge Byzantine production repressed by Euro scholars because of Gibbons and the bad press of the enlightenment. Will find Mavroudi’s lecture. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:34:17

@nntaleb Reinvention; read reintroduction into the consciousness but since 3rd C BC Alexandria was the true Greek center. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:17:45

@nntaleb For 1800 years few Greeks discussed Athens. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:09:38

@nntaleb Which is why Hagia Sophia hurts. Greek is Hellenistic, not Classical; Nordics who reinvented a “Greek identity” w/Greek gods on coffeeshop takeout mugs never get it. Nor do Levantines brainwashed by Arab fascism. Athens is a German Disneyland-style reinvention in the early 19C. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:59:40

@nntaleb New York Suburbs. In normal times, this parking lot for commuters to NYC would be full. Sometimes all it takes is one single image to be hit with reality. I am still in disbelief. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:53:13

@nntaleb Maybe they use past record as prior Permalink 2020-07-16 13:33:27

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1267161610243710976?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-16 11:37:30

@nntaleb Mabruk. Weyn? Permalink 2020-07-16 11:23:20

@nntaleb COVID is an economic stress test: the fragile is being destroyed (universities, airlines); the robust will thrive. It’s mostly an intellectual stress test; destroying fake probability: non-EVT epidemiology, naive”evidence based”(Ioannidis), BS vendors (@PTetlock🐁, Sunstein)… Permalink 2020-07-16 10:48:16

@nntaleb When Turkish was written with Arabic characters, they respected the sounds: “c” was “g”, etc. Permalink 2020-07-16 10:14:51

@nntaleb Palestinians from Galilee, particularly Christians, have the same genetics as Greeks and Southern Italians. Are Greeks “brown”? If so, is Aristotle “brown”? How did you get a theology degree being that stupid? Permalink 2020-07-16 01:21:29

@nntaleb Yes they took over and it was more like made men in the mafia: you are now a property of the mafia while being part owner. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:02:26

@nntaleb It’s going to get better. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:01:26

@nntaleb Never Beirut. It was largely migration into, unlike Tyre. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:45:21

@nntaleb Actually Med genetics! Permalink 2020-07-15 21:35:31

@nntaleb With help from Scribe Media @TuckerMax @zachobront Permalink 2020-07-15 21:22:50

@nntaleb Liguria is Med as hell Permalink 2020-07-15 21:19:27

@nntaleb No child sacrifice is fake news. They just buried dead children together. Greeks have plenty of aged persons in statues. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:15:13

@nntaleb Yes and the Jesuits messed it up with casuistry and use of equivocation. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:30:31

@nntaleb Look at the wrinkles! Permalink 2020-07-15 20:25:11

@nntaleb ALL Roman soldiers were free men, no? Same with Arabs. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:24:47

@nntaleb “Meds try to look older; more prestige…” True Trying to do a portrait for the French Incerto. Will look 24 years older and 24 lbs heavier. Why? this is not a diet/life coaching book. https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMuray/status/1283496199300026371?s=20 Permalink 2020-07-15 20:22:54

@nntaleb White lie. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:18:00

@nntaleb Lying (outside of white lies) is a sin, except when some busybody asks you something personal that’s none of their business or not relevant to the discussion. You are then morally obligated to confuse them. When journos ask me for my DoB, I always give Mandelbrot’s, 1924. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:14:41

@nntaleb Soon Permalink 2020-07-15 19:35:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-15 19:08:18

@nntaleb You can approve it is a different distributor, in stock. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:06:49

@nntaleb Actually it is in from another distributor. So you can wait for old order to be fulfilled or cancel and reorder, but for US only. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:05:40

@nntaleb Could it be Mori? Permalink 2020-07-15 18:59:22

@nntaleb Hi, when did you order? Thanks Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:33

@nntaleb I picked the MOST expensive paper I could find, full color. This is an artisanal book, where I wrote, typeset, formatted. Did the entire thing. Feels like #SoulInTheGame Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:09

@nntaleb Actually, the Naples version is a pun since “muori” is a town nearby. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:28:05

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:47

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:34

@nntaleb Soon you will see more evidence with my notes on the text. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:13:19

@nntaleb Je lis Frédéric Dard pour la langue. Pas d’académie, pas de controle. Permalink 2020-07-15 16:59:28

@nntaleb But those you can’t study for them Permalink 2020-07-15 16:47:29

@nntaleb If you must study for an exam, you will never really know the subject matter. Permalink 2020-07-15 15:49:30

@nntaleb Grant, you can get the class at TJ Max for $6 a pair! Permalink 2020-07-15 13:55:27

@nntaleb “Qui m’ont échappé”, cher compatriote grecophénicien. Permalink 2020-07-15 13:54:33

Tetlock, Propagandists, Lebanon, #IndiaEconomicConclave, Villages, Pinker, TENURE, J’ACCUSE, #RiadPonzi, Bret Weinstein, #Localism, GMOs, Arabists, Aramco, Lebanon

On the Statistical Differences between BinaryForecasts and Real World Payoffs (pdf)
The Beirut Banyan EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon (audio, Soundcloud)

@nntaleb BS Busting Showing how ~50 years of psychologists/decisiontheoristas claims that people “irrationally” “overestimate tails” are unrigorous; how being a “good forecaster” means nothing,etc. Some (e.g. Phil the rat @PTetlock) won’t like it Full version at https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/STDMM5E1fT”>  pic.twitter.com/STDMM5E1fT Permalink 6:25 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Mediocre minds are outraged by small insults but passive, subdued, and silent in front of very large ones. ” – From Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 4:31 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) I had a bit of a lucky start to my day today seeing this thread. Nassim’s solution – though a solution in a tweet! – is a terrific lesson for calculus students as it is a fantastic use of both the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and also infinite series. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1207621312006574081   Permalink 3:27 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/LeBjHvSS0y Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/8LkjS7O7oZ Permalink 2:16 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb MATH PUZZLE DU JOUR. For my trip back from India. pic.twitter.com/s9StRGpDZ3 Permalink 3:09 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Modern dialects called “Arabic” do not descend from “Classical Arabic”, but both they and Fus7a share a common parent; Fus7a appears to be larely manufactured by a bunch of scholars. It is like mistaking your cousin for your grandfather. https://twitter.com/PhDniX/status/1207431607369502721   Permalink 3:01 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This is, scientifically, fraud. I mean, really fraud. https://twitter.com/WDavidHill/status/1206518159873851394   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Kids get that Antifragile = Convexity. Social scientists can’t get it. https://twitter.com/MamanLunettes/status/1207378173106806786   Permalink 11:18 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb He did not get skin in the game. It is filtering. So many people discuss ideas from books they haven’t read. — h/t @imleslahdin https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1207319434957918209   Permalink 9:06 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@marco_m_alves Localism is not “peace on earth” as it creates much more “inconvenient’ day to day (corruption is more visible, disputes are direct, etc). But it’s the trade-off for avoiding system-wide collapse. Permalink 11:17 PM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Granted! https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1207011658884960258   Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb My former student is correct to bring me into line. Propagandists are unconditional in their support, never nuanced, even with the most eggregious actions. And thet are eventually caught. Like now. https://twitter.com/Mo_Hrmz/status/1206972693737857024   Permalink 8:45 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE EAST-MED PHILOLOGY “Spice”, μπαχαρικό (Bahariko) in Greek, بهارات (Bharat) in Levantine (not so much in Classical Ar), and baharat in Turkish originate from the old name for India: Bharat. Simply, the Med had no spices, only herbs. Permalink 8:37 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@yzilber Confusion can help learning https://news.nd.edu/news/confusion-can-be-beneficial-for-learning-study/   @nntaleb will like this study (2012) Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The way to do it. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/12/15/lebanon-tax-strike-wedeman-pkg-vpx.cnn?fbclid=IwAR1kyuv87g2pke9Y17GSvXyAdRINMPBKAKzmqxoO2stzjUi8dyoxS5iHIyA   Permalink 5:50 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb How to rescale distances on PCA maps for genetics. @WolframResearch Mathematica Code with verification pic.twitter.com/cVfRKS0Y9Y Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will give it a second look. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1206713742030860288   Permalink 2:30 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@CCavafy “But most incomparable / of all, Antioch boasts that she’s a city / that’s been Greek since Ancient times” – C.P. Cavafy, “Greek Since Ancient Times”, translated by @DAMendelsohnNYC #poetry #cavafy #Greece pic.twitter.com/8kuwmOY8ww Permalink 5:05 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:04 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam New paper “An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and its Applications”–“assumes only a high school mathematical and scientific background, so that it may be accessible to … anyone who is interested in systems and society” https://necsi.edu/an-introduction-to-complex-systems-science-and-its-applications   Permalink 4:45 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #bureaucracy Permalink 8:50 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb These pseudo-analysts don’t get it. The majority of French & British voters had a yuuuugely favorable opinion about De Gaulle & Churchill respectively but still voted them out of office right after the war ended. https://twitter.com/mashabani/status/1203316176740327427   Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you hear “X is incompetent in spite of “elite” education”, you should interpret as “X is incompetent *because* of “elite” education” (Wittgenstein’s Ruler) https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/1206181699765309441   Permalink 4:16 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@Nvdwaa Rereading antifragile, my 1st encounter with @nntaleb after about 4years. Discovering depth I missed/ didn’t appreciate 1st time around. Amazing, life-changing stuff. pic.twitter.com/BVzeRvhXSC Permalink 9:07 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie [correcting bad link] Exploring Markov chains and Martingales with kids – a project inspired by @gregeganSF @nntaleb and @octonion https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/12/14/33355/   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:50 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb His wife left him. https://twitter.com/geoffdporter/status/1205848006089695233   Permalink 5:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Bad way to visualize information, in the absence of scaling/size. If Rome/Papal States, Istanbul, Beirut were countries, They too… The web teaches people to become fools a la social scientists. https://twitter.com/arcgreek/status/1205500038706802691   Permalink 5:01 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Brutal honesty and intolerance to BS brings new friends. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1205616820612292608   Permalink 4:24 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Decorators design to impress other decorators. In the MEA lounge, the electric plugs are out of reach, low on the ground, with the cover opening upwards ; impossible to plug the charger unless you lie on the floor. @skyteam please tell these idiots. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/mBlfV1TyZo Permalink 2:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@DavidGibbons “Every plane crash makes the next one less likely, every bank crash makes the next one more likely.” From Antifragile. Maybe my favorite @nntaleb quote – certainly a most important insight. We have built antifragile things but banking is not one of them. Permalink 1:12 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@LieraMarco Will he ever invite real people (i.e. plumbers, taxi drivers, accountants, etc.) to speak at the @wef in Davos? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1205099302676291585   Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@ETNOWlive Tell us what is the #Nifty return this decade in the comments section and get a chance to win a signed copy of the latest books by @MarkMobiusReal, @SadhguruJV, and @nntaleb. #IndiaEconomicConclave #IEC #quiz #IEC2019 pic.twitter.com/AOKkXnSqpn Permalink 12:29 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Liars announce that they are saying the “truth”, without anyone asking them; shills claim they are promoting it. (Remember that “Pravda”, the Soviet organ, meant “truth”) pic.twitter.com/irpjNgra7g Permalink 2:27 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Auditing Mathematica’s conventions pic.twitter.com/5Qfdh2olcg Permalink 2:07 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Which explains why there cannot be such a thing as a global village: you build stronger bonds by meeting one person 5 times than by meeting 5 persons once. pic.twitter.com/7zO4MQwyUl Permalink 1:06 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 2) Do you live in a village? Simple trick: how many familiar faces do you encounter daily in your surroundings? Permalink 12:14 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Karagoz/Karakoz in Lebanese https://twitter.com/KBBlack_/status/1204834468822949888   Permalink 12:04 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I never live in cities. Only villages. #localism https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1204675247879929856   Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Another person I thought was revealing truths turns out to be a shill. Disgusting. https://twitter.com/veravanhorne/status/1204771551511547905   Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Turns out that what I called the “Karamata point” and the “Karamata Constant”, while obvious, didn’t have a name. Was told Kara-mata was “black eyed” in Ottoman Greek (Kara black in Turkish, Matis eyes in Turko-Greek) pic.twitter.com/Y0s26R7It0 Permalink 5:23 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Presented 3 short papers. Turns out this result (and 2 others) are unknown. pic.twitter.com/KrZOzlxfWr Permalink 5:18 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile The ‘slow earthquakes’ that we cannot feel may help protect against the devastating ones https://phys.org/news/2019-12-earthquakes-devastating.html   Permalink 5:02 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (3/3) I learned these ideas thanks to @nntaleb and @octonion when they were discussing another famous “word” problem – the COVFEFE problem in 2017: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/the-most-interesting-piece-of-math-i-learned-in-2017-the-covfefe-problem/   Permalink 3:31 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Eindhoven Workshop on Heavy Tails, with the usual suspects https://www.eurandom.tue.nl/event/workshop-heavy-tails-2/   Permalink 2:53 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@LaurentMartinez Sometimes you’re so obnoxious that I’m really considering muting you. But you so don’t give a f**** and are so uncompromising with (mostly) insufferable a-holes, that I have to admit it makes you a rare and valuable occurrence in this world. Permalink 1:47 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Pinker is not aware that he is promoting my own work: one of the books is plagiarism of the ##Incerto https://fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1204127384817033216   Permalink 1:34 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Disagreement: #Lindy requires nonperishability but not all nonperishable is #lindy (nonperishable can be memoryless, with constant expected remaining life). Lindy = power law NonPerishable usually exponential. @ProfSteveFuller Here formalizing Lindy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1146214203574968322?s=20   https://twitter.com/ProfSteveFuller/status/1199595280565440512   Permalink 12:20 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Trying to define RIGOROUSLY what is and what is not Racism in PRINCIPIA, away from the verbalistic. Some surprising results. For comments pic.twitter.com/qTNU63hPW5 Permalink 12:12 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The saying “lniqua numquam regna perpetuo manent” gives me hope. #Lindy #LebanonProtests #IraqiProtests, etc. Permalink 11:33 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb TENURE IS A TRAP After 30 y tenure in a pseudoscience w/citation ring (socialscience),pple can’t do anything in the real world Unskilled Labor! If Universities can’t take away your tenure, they can make your life miserable,as w/bigot @erasmuse. Like the brother in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1198329665078857729   Permalink 3:34 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “There is no more unmistakable sign of failure than that of a middle-aged man boasting of his successes in college.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:24 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Probability Proof Du Jour From the “Competitive Mathematics” FB page pic.twitter.com/gqI3BPTE7q Permalink 2:04 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb More confusion: Mathematica has two techniques. Dot product for normalized vectors is same as covariance (hence 3 and 1 are same). Which method is used? pic.twitter.com/R9ZulSWR8C Permalink 1:37 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Note that I blocked people who polluted the thread Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, some help. I have a question about conventions with PCA maps. pic.twitter.com/8KxAbkkDwa Permalink 9:38 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@imleslahdin Why I’m excited about Technical Incerto. Understanding tails & “shadow moments” is crucial in when your algorithm relies on randomness, which is the BEST way we have for the hardest problems ever (NP-problems). I’m not even talking about big data & ML/AI (go to #RWRI for that). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1203294669117022208   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kEA0VxgxRf”>  pic.twitter.com/kEA0VxgxRf Permalink 9:10 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Learned that just as the Latin hard “c” becomes a soft affricate /t͡ʃ/ in Italian (Ciao), in S Mesopotamian dialect ك becomes تش Other shifts:ق hard g in Muslim (vs Jewish/Christian) Bagdadi (qeltu vs gilit group)& ء in Levant https://www.instagram.com/tv/B5pvFhjHbZL/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DR0BlbACVt”>  pic.twitter.com/DR0BlbACVt Permalink 6:53 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JT_ZLC I am suggesting a minor change to the front cover. pic.twitter.com/93hzaGcN7g Permalink 6:39 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Almost. The statistical version of the asymmetry: to confirm safety (trader didn’t blowup), n =1000 could be insufficient, to disconfirm safety, n=1 (trader blewup) is sufficient. My technical version of the asymmetry is by examining the Law of Large Numbers under fat tails. https://twitter.com/sunnyrekhi/status/1203505476958220290   Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JonathanShedler This is why “evidence based therapy” research always seems to involve treatments most people don’t want and most practitioners don’t practice. Research designed to impress journal reviewers and grant reviewers, not provide what patients need. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1203128659806171138   Permalink 3:22 PM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb J’ACCUSE Depositors in #LEBANON being stiffed! 1-Payment to Eurobond holders, NOT to depositors, & Not enough $$ for fuel imports 2-Depositors should OWN the banks since default! 3- #RiadPonzi is in denial, must be replaced/supervised Must suspend CEDRE! @Jad_Ghosn @EHSANI22 Permalink 7:51 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS, Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Technical Incerto, I) is done. My 7th book. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Should be available in hard copy first Q 2020 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/J8cioGrEw8″>  pic.twitter.com/J8cioGrEw8 Permalink 4:46 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Med Again! https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1203280222642221057   Permalink 4:18 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The eugenics crowd has been after since the when I showed the IQ thingy to be a fraud. You can tell at the reactions of a bunch of people. https://link.medium.com/ehxNGI2Zc2   Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Time to do my “told you so”. You guys are 1 year too late. @Clairlemon et al are nothing but a cover for eugenics. https://twitter.com/rvawonk/status/1202719842605903872   Permalink 2:08 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The true left gets it. Democrats are getting Donaldo relected. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1202977556292624386   Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The nightmare https://twitter.com/brianabeythomas/status/1202964879067336709   Permalink 10:14 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Thread on Ergodicity & @ole_b_peters work 1) If you optimize on multiperiod payoffs you avoid an absorbing state(0), because multiplicative. ANY such optimization will avoid absorption, not just LOG 2) Growth is a nice summary parameter. 3) Avoiding absorption does same. Permalink 6:48 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb [For those who don’t get it: the point is that some friends are worse than enemies] Permalink 4:54 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Friends, the M5 competition (@spyrosmakrid ) is about inventory prediction using ML or other. I suggested predicting maxima & minima on top of the usual. While extrema are useful in trading (“never cross a river that’s on ave 4f deep”), are they with inventories? Permalink 4:37 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@bmiloy Attending one of these exposes and clears a lot of BS from your thinking. You think you understood the Incerto, maybe even read it a few times, and then you attend and discover that you were missing something essential. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1202700539886260246   Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see: The hidden moments for a probability distribution. The Lucretius problem in #TheBlackSwan. (Turns out explicit result below is new.) Inspired by a mistake made by that idiot @WGoetzmann (who sees #TheBlackSwan as an “airport book”) . pic.twitter.com/IRU9nlgkNa Permalink 3:03 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we gave in. Thanks to @Firsou we have a new #RWRI website http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 1:25 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Clive James, RIP My notes on his book *Cultural Amnesia* pic.twitter.com/Z8dcT5RjSy Permalink 12:28 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb With friends like me you are guaranteed to never need a single enemy. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1202574156971331585   Permalink 10:27 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@aleksndr_r “A book review can be far more descriptive of the reviewer than the book itself.” —@nntaleb That you can learn as much about the source of information as its object is one of the most helpful principles I’ve come across recently. Permalink 9:39 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@CIELivestock1 Raffael Zanoli @UnivPoliMarche tells @iSAGE_H2020 #sheep industry mtg in #Wetherby of @nntaleb concept of #antifragility. Beyond #resilience, resulting from challenges in the environment making you more #robust to future challenges. Applies in #farming AND #marketing! pic.twitter.com/HuSPXRRO3v Permalink 9:25 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi has reigned over 7 prime ministers, 4 presidents, a dozen finance ministers. If a single person is the perpetrator, it is him. He is the cancer. PS Riad, your “friends”’s smear campaign against me is equivalent to draining the Mediterranean with a teaspoon. https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1202594727444520966   Permalink 6:57 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will be involved in this project with a formal status as “friend”. Hopefully expand it to “The Great East-Med (Graeco-Phoenician) BS-debunking School of Statistics”. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1202527792027574273   Permalink 4:45 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you encounter Pinker style careerism, remember the following. A book (or a work of scholarship) is something that is read 25 years after publication. What happens in the 25 years doesn’t count. The rest is a combination of noise, promotion, hype & resumé building. #Lindy Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@spyrosmakrid At the Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia we have founded the MOFC (The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center). Its purpose to Advance the Theory and Practice of Forecasting through competitions, conferences, publications and forecasting courses. @polemitis pic.twitter.com/zBGMuGK8D2 Permalink 1:59 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@BDufournet My wife and I had the same idea for Christmas for each other… @nntaleb’s masterpiece in the deluxe edition! Received today. A very nice present. pic.twitter.com/44yvVZFWcU Permalink 2:53 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb By free I mean morally free, free to be ethical https://medium.com/incerto/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb   Permalink 1:58 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Yes! James Scott! Permalink 7:49 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you ask the facilitator of a Ponzi scheme to fix the Ponzi. Salame needs adult supervision. https://twitter.com/adibchristian/status/1202233307729018880   Permalink 7:04 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 1) The judgment of the free is the only one that counts. The rest has some element of propaganda. 2) Very, very few people are free. 3) In general, the more prominent the person, the less free. The janitor is freer than the politician/CEO. 4) Purity requires freedom. Permalink 6:36 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@OrtolanMagazine This is insanely fucked up and people aren’t talking about it enough at all #crispr #china #gmo @nntaleb https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/dec/04/china-gene-edited-baby-experiment-may-have-created-unintended-mutations   Permalink 5:48 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Aside from BS Vendor extraordinaire @saPinker misrepresenting his own claims (see other posts), @DrCirillo & I have shown that interarrival times betw. large wars >100 y hence 1) his claim on post WW2 is statistical noise 2) he doesn’t get what statistical noise means #BSVendor https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 5:12 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY of PROBABILITY Latest with @DrCirillo now on ArXiv https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.00277.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/84RBISEmiz”>  pic.twitter.com/84RBISEmiz Permalink 4:09 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:23 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What drinking with @EmanuelDerman looks like. And that’s before the drift into Spinoza. #OnlyinNewYork pic.twitter.com/bvLLy9P5fh Permalink 4:18 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Wealth Inequality Among Snails https://www.improbable.com/2019/10/02/wealth-inequality-among-snails/   Permalink 1:26 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb FAT TONYISM More effective & less risky to improve food distribution than produce GMOs/GoldenRice (food costs=60-94% distrib/decay), but not to *scientism*merchants It costs millions to make train rides more pleasant, billions to make trains just a bit faster, but not to… Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@Prof_BearB I think someone proposed it. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iE4zEmoon1″>  pic.twitter.com/iE4zEmoon1 Permalink 6:19 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon https://youtu.be/sGcyA0yB4nY   via @YouTube Permalink 5:55 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The bullshitter still doesn’t get that BOTH claims have been debunked plus his shoddy statistical claims! https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 1:54 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@DrCirillo Another sophistry. As usual. Given that what he claimed has been shown not to hold, he tries to change his claim ex post. Verba volant, scripta manent. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 1:32 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The end of Behavioral Economics https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1201547183079772160   Permalink 12:06 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@sean_a_mcclure The general public gets swept up in the labeling of others as “anti-science” without understanding how science actually works. The willing and able are now stepping forward to call BS and set the record straight. I can’t think of a better service to society. #science https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1201458485961117698   Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Statistics is a BS detector, not a BS generator.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Yii889CrUQ”>  pic.twitter.com/Yii889CrUQ Permalink 9:13 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The president, cabinet, central bankers & bankers should be locked 24/7 in a war room/control center discussing options & working hard instead of engaging in courtesy meetings & focusing on shooting messengers. http://www.dailystar.com.lb//News/Lebanon-News/2019/Dec-02/496664-aoun-calls-for-prosecution-of-those-who-spread-bad-publicity-about-national-currency.ashx#.XeU7R5tCwxM.twitter   Permalink 8:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@Firefly_fan Do you know Nassim that every smear campaign (the one that you suffer too) of Monsanto et al about Golden Rice is based (ENTIRELY) on a fallacy? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6760066/pdf/12992_2019_Article_495.pdf   Table 1. “Misleading Summaries” subgroup “Absence of evidence as evidence of absence”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The author of the article on golden rice used by @sapinker was running a bank that blew up spectacularly; asking him for advice on tail risk is like putting a drunk driver (while drunk) to monitor road safety. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1201504177286983685?s=20   Permalink 6:48 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Sorry, error: I carelessly mistook @mona_harb_ (who tried -and failed— to dump on me) for @mona_fawaz. Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics I didbn’t even catch that this is via @quillette. of course. They know the best genes for humans to have AND know the best genes for plants to have eugenics quillette. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   Permalink 4:37 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics Same language as last time, copied off a PR sheet I guess Soulless @sapinker Steven Pinker again smears those scientific doubt and reasonable concern for risk, uses the image of dying children to push his agenda https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   Permalink 4:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Localism implies opposition to US interventionism in world affairs (Syrian “rebels”, Saudi Barbaria-Yemen, etc.) It does not mean supporting interventionism by OTHER regimes. Most shills & low-intellect propagandists promote false dichotomies:”if not green, it must be pink”. Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Although activist @mona_fawaz has tried to dump on me (& got ran over),I MUST fight for her against the smear campaign by fascist propagandists that she’s a “foreign agent” #localists want to run their own lives, not be trapped into US-Iran-Israel-SA globalism #Skininthegame Permalink 3:59 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you ask what pple in #Lebanon want: basic amenities, jobs, education, clean water, transportation, power, etc. #Localism. Not geopolitics US-Iran-Israel-SaudiArabia. Fascists Khalek et al are shilling ag a technocratic government on grounds that it won’t globalize. Permalink 3:26 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RISK MANAGEMENT 101 we teach students: What @sapinker says is 1) wrong, 2) dangerous, 3) unrigorous & primitive *scientism*, with probability approaching 1. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/gb53Lao2u3″>  pic.twitter.com/gb53Lao2u3 Permalink 3:09 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam The idea that Golden Rice is a useful or necessary solution to nutrition problems does not recognize many alternatives and does not include an understanding of risk. This is a terribly misguided and unscientific frame of reference. @nntaleb https://necsi.edu/precautionary-principle   Permalink 7:50 PM – 1 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) Sharing some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas about probability distributions with kids https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/12/01/sharing-some-of-nassim-talebs-ideas-about-probability-distributions-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 9:07 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @dan_azzi Permalink 7:37 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @JadChaaban is also a target of the smear campaign. I can hire someone to identify the source. After the Monsanto episode we got to know exactly how these are done. Also easy to sue people involved in the story in NY or LDN if they cover up for losses. https://twitter.com/JadChaaban/status/1200863656843661313?s=20   Permalink 6:55 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@digvijoy_c Someone wrote: “Dear Mr Taleb, I like your work but I feel compelled to give you a piece of advice. An intellectual like you would greatly gain in influence if he avoided using foul language.” Answer: “Fuck off.” From @nntaleb facebook page. Holiday season gold from Nassim. Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Also there are mechanisms to sue Global Finance magazine for giving awards to #RiadPonzi, give naive investors & savers a false feeling of security. Also we need @petelx60 to help us investigate how @LebAmUniv gave him an award (before his days). Permalink 5:50 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Signs both #RiadPonzi & Bankers Assoc. hired 2 PR firms to whitewash their image/smear critics including @dan_azz, @Nasser_Saidi. Not successful in the West (nobody is stupid) but # circulating videos in Lebanon. Some shills: @jassemajaka cc:@Jad_Ghosn #lebanonprotest Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb At the “meeting”, #RiadPonzi exhibited a lack of financial proficiency. He said “We issued CDs at 6%, they are now at 20%, so we have profits.” Imagine a CEO saying: we issued bonds/stocks, their value collapsed, we make yuuge profits if we bought them back 50% lower! Permalink 4:57 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RETROSPECTIVE BIGOTEERING 1) no law is retrospective 2) you cannot blame people of a violation of a moral rule (or law) if they could not be possibly aware of such a rule, if such rule came AFTER their actions. This is similar to the retrospective distortion in #TheBlackSwan. Permalink 4:35 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Scale analysis is not mine, elaborated by many many scientists. My contribution is the link between nonlinearity of response, scale, stability and, mostly, the probabilistic implications. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1201115448529563648   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/MHDcn8tLex Permalink 5:37 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:08 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb An instance of retrospective bigoteering. Soon he will go after The Hamurabi code. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/inertialobservr/status/1200642160648835072   Permalink 3:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Most people scientists, academics, journalists & other BS vendorss write, talk about, & make claims about what they know. My specialty (Incerto & Technical Incerto) is to show what we don’t know. I stand current approaches to knowledge on their head. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1200798073884233728   Permalink 1:09 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Corrected. @birdxi1988 pic.twitter.com/HJ96ZBuUvX Permalink 12:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I am wrong Permalink 9:48 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb New picture. Need to change every decade. Permalink 8:54 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb They reposted the conversation without the edits. https://twitter.com/beirut_banyan/status/1200038885125951490   Permalink 8:49 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see:The hidden moments for a probability distribution. What we called shadow mean in paper with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/rnRBU9YwKn Permalink 7:25 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb By depositors I mean small depositors who put their life savings in the hands of #RiadPonzi Permalink 12:37 PM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I boycott @LOrientLeJour but Triangle have been extremely good at exposing the Ponzi scheme https://twitter.com/think_triangle/status/1200334111820460032   Permalink 10:21 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@idrissaberkane Il y a des gens qui sont prêts à se créer six comptes pour troller @nntaleb mais vraiment twitter est devenu complètement fou pic.twitter.com/Bd6R3KvnKE Permalink 8:27 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Le @dr_l_alexandre est un charlatan. Aucune etude genetique sérieuse sur le sujet. Du bidon. Voir https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/Ripamontialbert/status/1200129226269233152   Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is the classical question: “Where are the Customer’s Yachts?” Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A meeting in the Presidential Palace includes a representation of the banking sector. Where are the representatives of depositors? Where? Where? #LebanonProtests @Jad_Ghosn @dan_azzi pic.twitter.com/M3MvlXCGRT Permalink 6:05 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb India Economic Conclave Dec 16-17 https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1200350486441811968   Permalink 2:57 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Immense gratitude for this country, its people, its system. Permalink 3:09 PM – 28 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – @nntaleb https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 11:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@vtchakarova I use the occasion of #HappyThanksgiving to extent my special gratitude and big thanks to @nntaleb for giving me the unique chance to be part of his amazing #RWRI family this year and to grow immensely as a human and as a spirit! #SITG Permalink 10:39 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A mistake I made. My specialty is nonlinearity of responses. Complex systems have scaling issues from nonlinear responses. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1200048576900018178   Permalink 10:08 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The precautionary principle.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit http://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books http://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PLe4nprr56″>  pic.twitter.com/PLe4nprr56 Permalink 9:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I solved the quandary: I drink only American wine for Thanksgiving. Yet I want something Lebanese. Compromise: American wine made by Diaspora Lebanese. pic.twitter.com/7OPxpti5sV Permalink 7:59 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb As with IQ “regressions”, all it takes is one single point to change the story. #FooledbyRandomness https://twitter.com/crispakarati/status/1200025405354328065   Permalink 6:04 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@BitcoinDu Find out more about bitcoin in Lebanon at http://BitcoinDuliban.org   Permalink 5:35 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@beirut_banyan We’re joined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb for Episode 81 of The Beirut Banyan, and we discuss the October 17 Revolution and Lebanon’s modern history within the context of complex systems and local structures. Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/thebeirutbanyan/episode-81-nassim-nicholas-taleb-local-structures-for-lebanon   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/My8F6fGN8Y”>  pic.twitter.com/My8F6fGN8Y Permalink 5:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lebanese Bitcoiners Show How to Talk About Crypto At Thanksgiving https://www.coindesk.com/lebanese-bitcoiners-show-how-to-talk-about-crypto-at-thanksgiving   via @coindesk Permalink 3:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The evolution of the reputation of #RiadPonzi https://twitter.com/lukassustala/status/1199949608669106177   Permalink 3:18 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Never mess with other people’s sacred values. Never. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1199458779521331201   Permalink 2:15 PM – 27 Nov 2019

@B4DGETT This time of year, reminded of @nntaleb’s illustrative Thanksgiving turkey problem. pic.twitter.com/EZKxD1AA0f Permalink 11:36 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@georges_ebel “never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep” illustrated @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/hQRQqoOooy Permalink 7:59 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Buy Lebanese products. They need your dollars. Find a store near you. pic.twitter.com/5z6QnBtbS7 Permalink 6:15 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@prakashperuvamb He is a role model precisely because of that . Speaks his mind, doesn’t mince word or tolerate crap, and what he says almost always makes abundant sense … Not ur politically correct ninny nanny type @nntaleb Permalink 5:27 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Chapter on Extreme Value Theory with some results pic.twitter.com/h1XRMTbDxi Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@MarkMulvey My favorite @nntaleb quote, because most people treat math as a means to an end but he treats it like an artisan or musician: as an means to experience. https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1199470412465348608   Permalink 7:14 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I cannot stand phonies, despicable people like @BretWeinstein who act on bad faith. DESPICABLE! https://twitter.com/gallenperry/status/1199450736825917441?s=20   Permalink 2:43 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@dzviovich Wealth Gap is an emergent property of complex systems where agents interact. If system is not hijacked by rent seekers social mobility will follow as market preferences evolve. A very simple economy model will show these properties in action https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1810873   Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:21 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fucking coward: I want to see you try to insult other religions as you did with Christianity & people holding Christian beliefs. Coward and phony! Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Attributing the #Iranprotests to fuel prices is similar to attributing the #LebaneseProtests to a tax on WhatsApp. #Verbalism pic.twitter.com/vskpcNAYOS Permalink 8:24 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@normonics Anyone want to place bets how long it takes @BretWeinstein to apologize for telling Christians to shut up about their beliefs? https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1199189516105314305   Permalink 7:02 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Probability Discovery Du Jour: the invisible tail for a power law distribution doesn’t depent on its parametrization. A closed form derivation of thee “invisible tail”. pic.twitter.com/u1OlFLP75m Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@af_rd_ @BrankoMilan citing the Antifragile work by @nntaleb. Didn’t need more incentives. But it happens to be an interesting read indeed – ‘Antifragile states and global cities’ http://bit.ly/2OJz3zX   @ips_journal Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hezb now experiencing peacetime dilemmas: 1) cannot side with the protests without upsetting Iran 2) cannot use missiles against its own citizens, so militiary power is useless 3) cannot control hooligans harassing demonstrators 4) cannot afford to lose Shiite/Christian support https://twitter.com/hmalla72/status/1199023240380895234   Permalink 12:36 PM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Bible in Lebanese/”NeoCannanite”. https://twitter.com/zaqariyya/status/1198979549045886977   Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1198957709313368064?s=20   Permalink 5:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain extreme value theory: The Fréchet is surprising simple to rederive. pic.twitter.com/9RnRTk84Av Permalink 4:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@gabrielacunac Brillantemente expresado por @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/PDcY6klRgy Permalink 3:52 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Summary of my point https://twitter.com/RomanCabanac/status/1198923387764183041?s=20   Permalink 3:17 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The war on the Christian religion by @BretWeinstein shows ignorance of revelation of preferences, a repeat of what the charlatan Harris is spreading. Religion is NOT epistemic, but functional, precautionary, and #LINDY. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 3:00 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A lunatic… Dangerous… I thought the social planner was a closed problem. https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1198650802107113474   Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Again it is one position to say: “I wish to be with people from my tribe”, it is another one to claim: “I don’t want these people around BECAUSE they are genetically inferior”. This @erasmuse is in that second category which is FAR more dangerous. Permalink 1:13 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. pic.twitter.com/bkOqncjRPs Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. pic.twitter.com/bkOqncjRPs Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Taleb is arrogant. Find out why. Attend #RWRI https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1198574349990715392   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8VDS4FJ8Mq”>  pic.twitter.com/8VDS4FJ8Mq Permalink 1:01 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Taleb #ethics Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb More precise cross-correlations, bounds for transitivity in the Technical Incerto https://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/1196473782191476749   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yWvkoKNC1l”>  pic.twitter.com/yWvkoKNC1l Permalink 4:40 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have scholarships open for Lebanese women, plus Iran, Bolivia, Catalonia, HK, etc. Permalink 4:37 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have 5 scholarships open for Lebanese women. Permalink 4:29 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 4:09 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dan Azzi is invited to get the RWRI certificate. Unlike Harvard degrees, it is not taught by professors, empty suits and bullshitters, but by people/real scientists with skin in the game. https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1197660414663909377   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VJMhme2kRI”>  pic.twitter.com/VJMhme2kRI Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 2) Contrary to what idiots-who-think-in-slogans spread at the tim, Proudhon was not against private property. His central idea is the domination of the state. He was fundamentally someone against the coercion of individuals. https://twitter.com/BzhClair/status/1198547693972246528?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3vfDHLiRZR”>  pic.twitter.com/3vfDHLiRZR Permalink 2:28 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 1) The first #localist is Proudhon. He was both anarchist & federalist, understood the link between distributed power and centralization. “Anarchy is order without power”. He got ran over by Marxists IYIs who fell for Marx’s nonsensical handwaving “scientific” approaches. pic.twitter.com/dnh1mboOe1 Permalink 2:14 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Complex systems #Localism https://twitter.com/justinowings/status/1198072930812530688   Permalink 3:52 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Eric Rasmusen did produce all manner of personal abuse when my piece on IQ, heritability, etc. came out –I was wondering why, since his statistical comments were random. Turns out the fellow has indeed neo-nazi beliefs and tendencies. https://twitter.com/erasmuse/status/1196917954711080961   Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The full Triangle paper is here http://www.thinktriangle.net/extend-and-pretend-lebanons-financial-house-of-cards-2/   Permalink 10:31 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@paulportesi Debt and leverage have a @nntaleb dose-response sigmoid characteristics. Simply said, debt and leveraged is similar to drugs. It can be convex initially but will eventually reach an upper limit where it becomes concave an exponentially harmful. Permalink 10:09 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I expect plenty of factories to be built once #RiadPonzi and his policies are terminated. It took 3 years for Egypt and Turkey to build yuuuge reserves after their devaluation. I will make sure Riad Salameh is remembered as the MOST HARMFUL person in the history of #Lebanon. Permalink 6:46 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Some PR machinery is still trying to make people buy the argument that doubting GMOs is anti-science. In fact it is bullshit like this nonscientist journos such as @kittypurrzog that IS anti-science. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/kittypurrzog/status/1197942231358832641   Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I am optimistic that once the Ponzi stops, we will have a yuuuuuge boom in #Lebanon. Permalink 6:06 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After my USJ talk on #RiadPonzi & Localism a few “economists” went on MTV to explain I was nonsensical & “arrogant”, it was not a Ponzi, Lebanon is different, etc. Triangle explains where it is a Ponzi: + Use new deposits to pay interest to existing depositors rather than invest! pic.twitter.com/0LtlAZsOTb Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Civis Romanus sum The Republic of Koura in Lebanon (Capital Amioun) is closset to Cyprus & Crete. https://twitter.com/andrewidy/status/1198010880824369152   Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our paper in the philosophy of probability, with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/hc4gyy2qXQ Permalink 4:48 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Note I refuse honors and rank & when introduced as a speaker, I allow only one piece of information: Uber ratings of >4.9 Excellent bullet points for my lecktshur on #Localism at LAU New York. https://twitter.com/JacobGnther1/status/1198149271196983296   Permalink 2:38 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The best predictor of a collapse or blow-up => smooth returns” [part 2/2] / co-author @Firsou / inspired by @nntaleb’s #RWRI For more visit http://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books http://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5BkxugmfTw”>  pic.twitter.com/5BkxugmfTw Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@DominikWeil Following his activities in Lebanon closely – if his ideas on #localism and #decentralization of power structures can be implemented there… – provides hope & tailwind for other localist movements around the globe #freecityfrankfurt https://mobile.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1196790333000077312   Permalink 7:58 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The only way one can short it without basis risk is if it lists on the NYSE AND has high volume. Plans to list in the US were cancelled. https://twitter.com/eddyaccu/status/1197891192471588864   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascists anf antilocalists are easily pushed to produce incoherence https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197870058514665472?s=20   Permalink 5:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My approach is not to convince the person but expose publicly his defects in reasoning. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197864991912796160?s=20   Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascist @asadabukhalil wrote the only commentary on my talk on #Localism below The fascist denies local ancestral Lebanese poetry (Zajal) as a literary form. The unmistakable stamp of fascism all across. Particularly in the denial of the notion of scale. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww?view_as=subscriber   Permalink 4:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Start tagging Arabists as “facists” nemesis of #Localism They COERCE you into an “identity” Destroy diversity & force a Medieval language w/purity Stamp out Mediterranean culture in Lebanon, & its character as cultural crossroad Example: antilocalist fascist @asadabukhalil Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@marciadabliu .not that these people would be interested but it seems @nntaleb has demolished the concept of IQ measuring let alone that intelligence could ever be inherited. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   and yes, ooops some many ethical issues involved Permalink 3:15 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb People in Lebanon are not yet used to see a person entirely free who doesn’t give a fuck about his reputation. Permalink 2:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He made the mistake of pathologizing someone, which to me is a yuuuge intellectual violation. He will pay for it for the rest of his life as I find it egregious: that’s what the Soviets did with dissent. Never pathologize. Permalink 2:07 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is NOT squid ink. Just colored pasta. @adam_sajdak https://twitter.com/adam_sajdak/status/1197676208907018241   Permalink 1:57 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or it is quite strange when someone keeps insulting you online, but not in person when they unexpectly meet you in the physical world? In other words talk is cheap online, but costly in real life. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197255332864647168   Permalink 2:12 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics We live in a novel age, no doubt But you have to be blind to believe it is “absolutely” novel Most of what is relevant to us is not new but very old indeed, easy to take for granted I suppose And, what should one “blindly follow”, Bret? The latest trend? https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1197576604563562499   Permalink 1:13 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb From the remarks of the mob @RaniaKhalek is sending my way, there is an ELEMENTARY defect of reasoning both with her & the mob. One can be AGAINST US interventionism yet AGAINST repressive theocracy & AGAINST the massacre of young protesters in Iraq & Iran. Fehménin? Permalink 10:34 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Finishing a paper in philosophy of probability with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/TofruImYBO Permalink 10:15 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics .@TulsiGabbard expressed the need for local-first and regional-based agriculture model last night This is common sense from every perspective *except* for large scale factory-style industrial agriculture corporations and their lobby. Thank you, Tulsi. Permalink 8:47 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Outside an ancestral environment (or a small village), you cannot be both ethical and striving for people to like you. Permalink 8:42 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb OK, confirmed statistically. 100% of @RaniaKhalek posts are propaganda. There is NO information in the posts of the propagandists, since all you see is cherrypicked. Her “journalism” career is done. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1197412341874339840?s=20   Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@Boswall_Jacob For all depositors at #Lebanese banks, @Li_Haqqi and @nizarghanem have created a Facebook campaign to ensure that small and medium account holders don’t foot the bill of the #economic crisis. #لبنان It’s called #لن_ندفع_الثمن – find your bank here: https://www.facebook.com/LiHaqqi/photos/a.759628340890167/1276672349185761/?type=3&theater   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lR6eggnVUM”>  pic.twitter.com/lR6eggnVUM Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I removed from The Black Swan these comment because, at the time, I was stupid enough to listen to editors. “A White Swan not taking place is a Black Swan.” “You look at counterexamples for the usual, verification for the unusual”. https://twitter.com/Heinonmatti/status/1197502130799677440   Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb MODERNISM Before the formation of the Greek Nation-State & Nordic historical manufacturing, Greek “identity” was not built ar. Classical Greece,but Greek Orthodoxy Greek Restaurants, now called “Olympic”, Acropolis, wd have been “Agios Nikolaos”, “Ag. Dimitrios”, “Aya Pelagia” Permalink 3:56 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@jbaksht I bought Incerto, can’t wait to reread all of them. Thanks @nntaleb https://twitter.com/kpaxs/status/1197240014880563202   Permalink 3:55 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dabké Anatolian in origin. East Med imprint. Naples was Neapolis a Greek settlement. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1197281616936067072   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Life is boring if your online detractors freeze in terror when they run into you in the physical world. I saw a nondeadlifting stranger in a state of yuuge terror as I passed by his table, as if he ran into the Loch Ness Monster. Could be from photo the Arabo-fascist @joeyayoub https://twitter.com/Decafquest/status/1195762604796502025   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dUCilXhM0e”>  pic.twitter.com/dUCilXhM0e Permalink 12:48 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I told an assembly of prominent farts in Lebanon, the local establishment: I don’t care about you f*cks, so long as your children are reading the INCERTO. And they are. Permalink 8:19 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon wanted power & glory. He liked flashy victories. Cambaceres who *wrote* the Napoleonic code liked influence. Napoleon lost everything but most of the world uses the Cambareces code dubbed “code Napoléon”. The world is run according to C. Gabish? https://twitter.com/prateekkul/status/1197184716815978497?s=20   Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I respect those who seek influence; never those who seek power. Permalink 7:48 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@JamesMarsh79 i think this proves Nassim’s point about size. pic.twitter.com/fCuYrzuXkv Permalink 7:33 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb Lebanon: From Ponzi to Localism https://youtu.be/53uW9Xd_JRU   Permalink 7:24 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After defending her (benefits of the doubt), I am now nearly certain that @RaniaKhalek is an Iranian regime shill. The Regime is massacring hundreds of youths in Iraq & Iran. It is unpardonable. A shill is always UNCONDITIONALLY on one side of an issue. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1197125109963776001   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ddbxESnPpu”>  pic.twitter.com/ddbxESnPpu Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@Zzeghedrane Localism taking place and shape strongly on the ground instead of in theory Cc: @nntaleb https://twitter.com/kassimchahrour/status/1197079385012133889   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KJseJ0J4ZV”>  pic.twitter.com/KJseJ0J4ZV Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The foundation of the 1/n heuristic is that the law of large numbers cannot be invoked. https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1196957373438578688   Permalink 5:12 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb In other words we get an exponential out of a power law. Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Interesting (and shocking) result. The “missing tail” for a power law follows a thin-tailed distribution. pic.twitter.com/Uh2RR8ikzF Permalink 2:22 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC MYSTERIOUS PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Seems that qariba قارب (small boat) doesn’t come from קָרוֹב قرب, proximity (to coast) but from the Byzantine Greek καράβι (pl.l καράβια) [same root as”crab”] Could the Byz. Greek originate from the Semitic קָרוֹב via Syrian Greek? Permalink 2:03 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb It feels the riots are more likely to succeed in Iran because: 1- Trump did not claim direct credit 2- Little news coverage 3- It feels like it is about time, I mean about time Permalink 12:35 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@HietanenPaavo More shenanigans by Finnish #Antifragile team w/ @LIHF_Living @STrosterud @Heinonmatti. Discussing hunting, Finnish localism and how more @nntaleb’s localism should be planted to Finnish political soil pic.twitter.com/Vywx3JgEne Permalink 11:25 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi These estimates were close. Got new information, the alpha coefficient is stable. pic.twitter.com/hsgpzkZuOY Permalink 9:08 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@VqVoice Our new article is about making good software architecture for hearables, ergodicity, and just a little about Scorsese’s awesome film Casino (with special thanks to @nntaleb and #RWRI ) #technology #startup #softwaredevelopment https://medium.com/the-science-of-conversation/the-casino-problem-and-hearable-software-architecture-5de2730a42ec?source=friends_link&sk=233bfb8ca47514fb669804146b05eba9   Permalink 7:51 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@BrendanJHammer Taking my daily @nntaleb – he nails it here on the proxy wars of couples. #BedOfProcrustes pic.twitter.com/S8VYxYqWBX Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I detect that our movement is killing the old Libertarian and anarchist factions. #Localism https://twitter.com/jed_trott/status/1196791845671653376   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@normonics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1196790333000077312   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hnp4YKByVy”>  pic.twitter.com/hnp4YKByVy Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/mhaffar/status/1196794602994487296   Permalink 6:20 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Case closed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-18/aramco-failure-to-win-foreign-investors-makes-ipo-a-local-event?srnd=premium-middle-east   Permalink 7:49 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@RickKLN Rediscovered my faith years ago when you blocked me on FB. A Christian that didn’t discuss both sides, and could dismiss questions as BS changed my life. One of these years I will attend #RWRI and say thanks in person. Diplomacy is NOT more effective. BS busting is. Permalink 2:18 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A Sheikh in the Beqaa is saying “we can deliver Switzerland of the East” in 20 days. We do not need the central state. https://twitter.com/HsenAndil/status/1196367753436946432   Permalink 2:07 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese are still shocked by my “in your face” blunt, totally unapologetic, uncompromising, no-BS, “he’s incompetent”/”you’re an idiot” approach, esp when I address IYI “specialists” I threw someone w/unsollicited advice “diplomacy is more effective” out of my house. Permalink 2:06 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Very rough statistical estimatess. Wished the banks told us more. Good news for the small depositor pic.twitter.com/WKp6ptnO9J Permalink 1:25 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Key part in PRINCIPIA is that the demarcation left-right has been redrawn by real science, along the lines STATIST-LOCALIST-MINARCHIST When I gave my tawk in Boulder, was told US most localists self-defined as “left”.Super-localist= Libertarian, etc. I prefer the IDIOT-NONIDIOT https://twitter.com/laurentozon/status/1196347126466396162   Permalink 1:23 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I think the haircut can be milder 200k-1 mil, since the bulk is from accounts>1 mil Permalink 1:12 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb There is a problem w/: Short Aramco Long Oil contracts which maturity? Aramco =~ perpetual maturity The front contracts can be much, much more volatile than the back and decorrelate during squeezes. Discussed in one of the #RWRI https://twitter.com/mazen_barbir/status/1196292503743401985?s=20   Permalink 11:39 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Solved half pic.twitter.com/BAJ2Hg9oZv Permalink 4:29 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ (Statistical sleuthing) We know that +1% of accts in #Lebanon own 50% of total, $170 bil +accts <$200K represent $20 bil in total (rough numbers) Assume Pareto distr. How many accounts have > 200K, 1 mil, 10 mil ? What’s the weekly drain from 1000$ withdrawal per acct? Permalink 4:09 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@Firsou Anyone in Lebanon that advocates indebting the country in a similar manner should be treated with extreme suspicion. https://www.africanstand.com/business/china-to-take-over-kenyas-main-port-over-unpaid-huge-chinese-loan/   Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I saw no such posters. My point is that the only way to satisfy Salafis is to give them their own communes. Unless you recommend “killing them all”. https://twitter.com/AliSalaam_DTI/status/1196190174906068993   Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism A crowd starts clapping from one single trigger. Revolutions (1848, #LebanonProtest, Iran, Iraq, Chile, H-K, Barcelona) spread spontaneously, “leaderless”, bec. complex systems work by 1 heuristic: once you find the trigger, you get power law behavior. Hard to reverse. Permalink 2:10 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He said “Tripolis is 10% Salafi, mostly in one neighborhood, & there is no alcohol in the whole place out of fear. You need to either increase the subdivisions or force the sectarians into a secular system that will turn them into terrorists out of resentment.” Permalink 1:50 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism at its best!!! Intoxicated by what is happening in Tripolis (Troblos) Tens of simultaneous ORDERLY discussion groups on constitutional, legal, economic matters Shocked to hear someone telling me “Tripoli shd not be one municipality ” because “minority rules”! pic.twitter.com/kw6Ns9RPmP Permalink 12:57 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Albert Kostanian proposing the equitable haircut proposed on his program: spare small accounts <200K, have a progressive haircut. https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1195895226080120832/pu/vid/480×270/euqLRKy2IEHnjwzB.mp4?tag=10   https://twitter.com/AlbertKostanian/status/1195999663071121410   Permalink 12:47 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@soonaorlater ‘Bitcoin removes [government] from the transaction…They’re trying to ‘ban bitcoin’ because they’re afraid of it. It’s important for us [the Lebanese] from now on to learn about crypto. Our collective intelligence is greater than the state’s’ – @nntaleb https://open.tube/videos/watch/f5813d6f-96d2-4e95-b3b3-a7c6a51abd7f   Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A rioter was explaining the Silver Rule: “Mitl ma bit3omil btet3omal” Permalink 10:03 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Troblos (Tripolis) The epicenter of the Revolution. pic.twitter.com/BFauyzR9CF Permalink 9:56 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@rebeccacollard “From Tehran to Beirut, one revolution that won’t die” Lebanese chanting in support of Iran protests tonight. #LebanonProtests #IranProtests #iran #لبنان_ينتقض pic.twitter.com/V9QydyrU9A Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb II- Also as a bonus you “earn” the country risk since Aramco is located in the Shiite area with an oppressed minority who rightfully believe oil is theirs. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@PZalloua At z Lecture on Localism, Beirut USJ @nntaleb over-filled pic.twitter.com/LADSCuupyj Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I want to be sued for the defamation of #RiadPonzi https://twitter.com/aya_majzoub/status/1194563388266823680   Permalink 6:25 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Pareto 80/20 Estimated share of deposits. I suggest NO HAIRCUT except for acc >500K-1m & progressive beyond. pic.twitter.com/JZxgt5Z8HB Permalink 5:11 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GEORGIA as a model for #Lebanon MOST successful post-Soviet state. -Fired the entire police dept. Over 7 month w/o law enforcement, crime dropped by 60% (they claim) -Anti-corruption gov : most in their 20s, PM 32. 0 tolerance,$20 bribe=>7y jail #كلن_يعني_كلن @fadyasly Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This tweet puts to rest all possible theories of “Aounist tendencies” on my part. I am intransigent & INDEPENDENT. Always, everywhere, w/ no political loyalties even if I am buddies w/@Gebran_Bassil A judge has no friends. There are NO exceptions. #كلن_يعني_كلن #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Full paper (2nd revision) is here https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.11162   Permalink 3:47 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Typo: (“incl Gold” shd be “excl. Gold”), but P/L (actual negative bleed) must me much > $5 bn. Ref: Toufic Gaspard’s note. pic.twitter.com/Ip0a0US4BP Permalink 5:53 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My talk tomorrow. Riad’s Ponzi has been depleting reserves at a yuuuuge rate & borrowing to preserve a harmful “peg”. BDL has liabilities >$86 bil costing huge carry and assets <$40bil (incl. gold) earning <1%. On top of the fiscal deficit Riad’s Ponzi is costing>$5 bil/year https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1194968612940996608   Permalink 5:32 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Revised the paper on the misfitness of binary predictions in real life (and the nonsense in many psychological claims) @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/owoC1TWEjV Permalink 4:35 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our (non naive) precautionary principle page. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 2:27 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb You cannot possibly give Aoun the benefit of the doubt. He is, besides, talking to citizens as if they were his SUBJECTS, or a general’s subordinates. https://twitter.com/Fadi_Ramadan/status/1194740505713807360?s=20   Permalink 2:23 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@normonics There are moments where I almost feel pity on a guy like this But invariably they re-reveal themselves Steven Brainiac Pinker: “If you don’t recite my corporate propaganda you are a mindless killer” What a f**ing piece of trash. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1194449088185454592   Permalink 9:35 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Aoun seems to see the protests as some transitory annoyance –he appears to be irritated by the messenger. Permalink 7:34 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Optionality and the Intellectual Life: In Gratitude for the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI 12 https://www.frontporchrepublic.com/2019/11/optionality-and-the-intellectual-life-in-gratitude-for-the-real-world-risk-institute/   Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Indeed I listened to his interview. That’s what he said. And, what is worse, what he meant. Permalink 6:09 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb President Michel Aoun You said that those who don’t like the government should emigrate. I am doing the exact reverse. I left 43 years ago. I am now in transit to Beirut, just to make sure YOU emigrate. #LebanonProtests cc:@Gebran_Bassil #لبنان_ينتفض pic.twitter.com/yM2vZybypr Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb FORMAL INVITATION. First come first served pic.twitter.com/gNmMthVM5A Permalink 1:27 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Anatomy of a state Ponzi. These are largely accumulated phantom interest earnings. Salameh killed the Lebanese economy. Scammer!!! https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1191790897387769856   Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lesson from Riad Salameh’s incompetence: No central banker should ever try to print money in a foreign currency. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@otrasenda_AC Who else started to DL because reading @nntaleb ? i did https://twitter.com/AntonioSerbia/status/1194295926938095619   Permalink 11:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Owing to the responses, USJ will be using a different amphitheater >500 pple; a new announcement will be posted tomorrow. [Also note that your twitter response is not a reservation but a market assessment; it is still first come first served] Permalink 9:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@PaulSkallas Here’s some Libanius pic.twitter.com/2rQFRZsxeE Permalink 7:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lghtak hiyyé l bt7ké ma3 immak. Msh lghét l sa7ra lb3idé. #Localism #Lma7alliyé Permalink 4:53 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please make sure to confirm attendance. pic.twitter.com/PCB2KoXbsD Permalink 3:31 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My lecture, Friday 6 PM “From Ponzi to Localism” USJ School of Medicine Please confirm on Twitter so we can predict attendance. LANGUAGE: Lebanese pic.twitter.com/aFdVZYf5BX Permalink 1:46 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Yes, formalized here see my paper on Antifragility in medicine https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   https://twitter.com/npandey25/status/1193902978693881857   Permalink 7:22 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@Stefano_Peron kernel Mutual information in cluster matrix. Tnx to @financequant @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9TrhAhdNVR Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb WE MUST STOP SALAMEH NOW! #RiadPonzi Salameh MUST suspend payments on the Eurobond & declare a moratorium. This is outright theft from Lebanese citizens. Send to your friends! Will discuss further on Friday evening 6PM in Beirut #lebanonprotest #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@MauriceMassaad I work in a Leb co. that manufactures steel shelving solutions. 10 y ago we started exporting to difficult countries in Europe, Africa, ME. I personally spent 4 y trying to convince a French company to join us … with success! Now we are not able to deliver. Thank you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you are scared, it is impossible to hide it, no matter how hard you try. Permalink 4:19 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb CURRENT TWITTER ACTIVISM +#Localism & anti geopolitical BS vendors/Arabist fascism), & #lebanonprotest +#RiadPonzi +Pseudostatistics, esp. #Quilletbeciles/Neonazis/Eugenists w IQ claims & other #Alt-Right #Nordicists +#Nudge Finished: #Monsanto, #SaudiBarbaria, #Econometrics Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We don’t have to avoid imports, but the local industry became …just banks. I want #RiadPonzi to pay for it. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh’s Ponzi killed the Lebanese economy: small businesses, anything that could provide exports or mitigate imports has been crowded out. #RiadPonzi #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:50 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh is criminally incompetent. And, of course, a liar. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests https://twitter.com/DailyStarLeb/status/1193854637788545024   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@OddmundGrotte Skin In The Game: Family/Owner-Operated Companies Perform Better? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4303077-skin-game-family-owner-operated-companies-perform-better   Permalink 2:04 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, looking for a Madoff expert to figure out how they finally allocated the losses. #Ponzi #LebanonProtests #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:40 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Wisdom isn’t about understanding things (& people); it is knowing what they can do to you.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #wisdom Permalink 1:10 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Good news that Western newspapers are not reporting on #LebanonProtests. Why? Journos only get geopolitics & this is (still) a localist anti-geopolitical revolt. Trick by BS vendors (eg @tomfriedman) who understand nothing is make things geopolitical. (See #TheBlackSwan) Permalink 12:05 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@justinowings What’s lost in the climate debate? Pushing models and trusting experts _undermines_ the argument for caution. Alternative argument: Set the science aside. Lean on decision making under uncertainty—something everyone understands. “We have only one planet.” So don’t f**k it up. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370   Permalink 7:35 AM – 10 Nov 2019

@Lekapenos 1) I’m going to continue ridiculing the “muh steppe” quasi-Nordicists here: “The genetic basis of a number of physical features of the Yamnaya people were ascertained by the ancient DNA studies conducted by Haak et al. (2015), Wilde et al. (2014) and Mathieson et al. (2015): Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Nov 2019

Evolutionary Biologists, Ayn Rand, Dawkins, Quilettebeciles, Nate Silver, Mosquitos, Bolton, Pinker, Nudgeboy, Pencilwits, Brasil | Twitter


Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference.

Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence (Hattip Dave Lull)

@nntaleb We had DNA evidence that the ancient Egyptian ruling class came from the North. Socks-with-scandals places them somewhere around what is now Central Germany. https://twitter.com/rabihalameddine/status/1176247307341164544   Permalink 2:55 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) People have no problem getting Nietzsche, Le Bon, & other’s point that crowds composed of sane individuals can go crazy. It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals. Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) These simple comments by the 2 fellows destroy +5 decades of evolutionary psychology/biology, etc. I mean really shatter current methods. pic.twitter.com/Q6Opzp6XFF Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Please do not respond to my claim that “(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb” by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or “he says everybody but me is dumb”. Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc. You will then see the gravity. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1176190670433857536   Permalink 1:46 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Actually this is a chapter in #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/reC9hrJ8VD Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Do not mess with him. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1175888089367162880   Permalink 10:33 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I would tell him that he should feel lucky. Compare these to the worst possible nightmare: an association with Ayn Rand. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1176107964656234497   Permalink 10:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@MuserMarco His argument is basicallly that because of nonlinear effects the macro (group) cannot be explained by the micro (individual). A group is not just a bunch of individuals. Or in other words, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Permalink 8:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Caro Bret, This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs. Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 7:51 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Cheese Galettes with halloumi & kashkaval made by Syrians from Raqqa (Beirut highway). pic.twitter.com/HrwRVoEW0r Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@ProBucks_ “naive interventionism” proving detrimental in yet another complex system with long lasting unintended effects. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1175636181515718656   Permalink 10:36 PM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The art and science of drinking with Russians. pic.twitter.com/GIF8al4S8K Permalink 11:09 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vitello tonnato with squid ink. #OnlyinMoscow pic.twitter.com/EWz9zI60Sf Permalink 8:12 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@GeorgeJNasr #Pedophrasty: Argument involving #Children to prop up a rationalization, & make opponents look like assholes. Nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the #news. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B”>  pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Why is it wrong to be a “group selectionist”, @BretWeinstein ? You do not have to defend yourself ag. the BS vendor @sapinker. The 2 journalists Pinker & Dawkins have been barking/bullshitting w/o showing flaws in Nowak, Wilson et al. #Multiscale & aggregation. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1175592010662567936   Permalink 5:07 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapuri pic.twitter.com/AUAA39pjc4 Permalink 4:04 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don’t know it. Permalink 12:11 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty is spreading https://twitter.com/mayurshetty01/status/1175624855837925376   Permalink 12:00 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb водка pic.twitter.com/Q85lklqq8Y Permalink 1:35 PM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great John Gray explains that Christianity is, basically, secular humanism. https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1174383075419197441   Permalink 9:15 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dawkins, as exected, another fake scholar. https://twitter.com/gheathwhyte/status/1175081067943997440   Permalink 7:47 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@RickyDelFuego Next phase begins when the kids start reading @nntaleb and realize the reason no one listens to the “educated” is because someone who collected $100,000 in debt to get a PhD in “empathy as communication” or whatever isn’t worth listening to. https://twitter.com/nicgaston/status/1175302556324651009   Permalink 7:14 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1170627288947470336   https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1166321418432339969   Permalink 4:12 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@PaulSkallas ”If your private life conflicts with your intellectual opinion, it cancels your intellectual ideas, not your private life.” Permalink 5:53 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And “psychologist”. https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1175190661538226177   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@GuillermoBurr The results are so aberrant and childish that they remind me of Dr Malcolm in the movie Jurasic Park. When he is informed that all dinosaurs are female and that they cannot breed, he answers: life will find a way (sic) Permalink 4:46 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@Vasilis48814362 When I finished black swan, I felt good, but also in panic because I could not believe for once someone was right on pretty much everything. The smear articles online only worsened this panic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1175185309073625093   Permalink 4:27 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@holland_tom One is a work of Protestant theology. And one is by me! https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1175053970613706753?s=20   Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “it is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most convincing evidence that the psychology of happiness is total BS is to meet “happiness” “expert” psychologists in person. https://twitter.com/alexandersquats/status/1174719753283178496   Permalink 9:31 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@normonics looks like I’ve been using “moron” where I should have been using “imbecile” Nassim gets it right again Permalink 7:41 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@RobRastapop Of all writings I love only that which is written in blood. Nietzsche Not everything that happens, happens for a reason. But everything that survives, survives for a reason. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/M4l1VIZitz Permalink 6:04 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism means skin in the game and personal accountability @nntaleb https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/999927177259892738   Permalink 5:36 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@AssalehAmer The Bed of Procrustes, https://twitter.com/king4judge/status/1174507514358095873   Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A #Lindy drink. So is its (mild) hangover. Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@john_f_hamer “Just as dyed hair makes old men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0bJDJ3rLtS Permalink 4:12 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@themintmag “Every time I have questioned these methods I have been abruptly countered with: “they have the Nobel”, which I have found impossible to argue with.” – @nntaleb Hence the need for the #NotTheNobel. Econ is not a science. Vote for a fresh thinker today! https://lght.ly/g1dmja9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO”>  pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO Permalink 3:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “What they call philosophy I call literature; what they call literature I call journalism; what they call journalism I call gossip; and what they call gossip I call (generously) voyeurism.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2:13 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@sean_a_mcclure Many lack the scientific literacy needed to understand the IQ debate. I wrote this conceptual article to help those ill-equipped to form an educated opinion on a massively important topic. https://bit.ly/2m0JtAM   @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik #science #psychology ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS”>  pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0sfzemUBsL Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nabilshadman @nntaleb said “Learning is rooted in repetition and convexity, meaning that the reading of a single text twice is more profitable than reading two different texts once.” Permalink 11:00 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@birdxi1988 Jus realize this is extremely important. Not only in psychology but also in finance. This debunked various kinds of CAPM related regression. Eg, Fama–MacBeth regression(for risk premium). Same situation as here: return(fat tail) is regressed over beta(thin). E(R^2) is zero! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1174231033514008576   Permalink 10:18 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the Negroni’s 100th anniversary. (in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/GIf8rimtNf Permalink 8:53 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@willianadamczyk “Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsability”. @nntaleb , 2012 Permalink 8:02 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@kudra_1 “Pedophrasty,” coined by @nntaleb: Using children to “prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children.” https://twitter.com/jenniferm_q/status/1174308373526929408   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@JYuter I’m old enough to remember when people called for civility when someone died (and that’s assuming it’s true) https://twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1174098732905881601   Permalink 4:18 PM – 17 Sep 2019

@garyruskin U.S. Right to Know investigates big food and agrichemical companies. We expose what they want to hide. We stand up for our right to know what’s in our food. Please contribute today: https://www.patreon.com/usrtk   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@venksaiyan Something @nntaleb has been saying for long. Theory often follows Invention. https://twitter.com/davidlayden/status/1173712393312059393   Permalink 1:25 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@sjourdan This new edition of #incerto is beautiful. @nntaleb rocks. pic.twitter.com/wTaZ16iHZh Permalink 10:21 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@exergiovanni I thought religion was irrational. Thanks to professor @nntaleb I changed my mind diametrically. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is not an “error”: this is genetics. Higher dimensions are really unpredictable. pic.twitter.com/1CqvZokuiz Permalink 3:25 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “I am never bothered by normal people; it is the bull***tter in the intellectual profession who bothers me.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:33 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to not realize that so many “noble” pursuits (academia, service, anything where one is paid with “honors”) are zero-sum. And wealth pursuits, outside of rent seeking, aren’t zero-sum. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1173561683870179328   Permalink 12:42 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Joey Automata: you need the Quilettebeciles to keep posting complaints about you, not the reverse. Keep irritating them, don’t reply TO them. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1173195884236087296   Permalink 9:55 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are other errors… the person who put the cheat sheet together is not familiar with probability. Permalink 8:17 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “thinking like Nate Silver” part is a red flag. https://twitter.com/KirkDBorne/status/1173511271544586240   Permalink 8:13 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vegan is Halal, not the opposite. Much more asymmetric that you think. https://twitter.com/naniiyer/status/1173567520860704769   Permalink 6:50 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/Np6mErhFuW Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@_benoux_ For those who still don’t get it. Let’s use an another example: @nntaleb published an excellent book, “SKIN IN THE GAME”. A figurative title consolidates a background in probability & statistics. He didn’t name it “Enlightened Reason & Science of Risks in Humanism” (Pinker-like). Permalink 5:36 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile Permalink 4:38 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is the only compliment that counts, not that I actually agree with the designation “ash*” as a proxy for uncompromizing. https://twitter.com/squidbidness/status/1173310545748848641   Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we need 3 more applicants for women scholarships for RWRI 12 in New York Oct 24. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 9:29 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@BLebnene L fasel l 20 min kteb Le Petit Prince bil Libnene bil 7arfen l 3arabe wil Letiine! Tarjamit @HsenAndil الفصل ال20 من كتاب Le Petit Prince باللبناني بالحرفين العربي واللاتيني! https://medium.com/bel-lebneene/l-fasel-l-20-l-miir-zzghiir-f58995d8d080   Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@zkortbawy باللبناني”خَلّيك هَون Khallik Hawn” = “إبقى هنا Ibka Houna” بالعربي #بتحكي_لبناني_كتوب_لبناني @BLebnene Permalink 2:13 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sample https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLQ0ryLOWik&feature=share   Permalink 2:48 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Northern Lebanese, from Zgharta. https://twitter.com/manwithahammer/status/1172969296189894661   Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@DrMichaelBonner For flexibility and clarity: Greek; For precision: a tie between Latin and Arabic; For sound: a tie between Syriac and Persian; For rhythm: Arabic; For intricacy: Sanskrit; For interesting texts: Greek, Aramaic, Syriac, and Armenian. For sheer mental exertion: Hieroglyphic! https://twitter.com/Bfklin/status/1172964937741869057   Permalink 1:13 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This guy is good. And he knows his stuff. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1172845055289245696   Permalink 12:03 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, Bill Gates doesn’t get that neomania works with software with reversible errors, not with complex systems. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1172904846787301377?s=20   Permalink 9:18 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@Jaffer22915438 FWIW: Tulsi Gabbard had more traffic to her website during the Dem debate than any day since the last debate. Permalink 8:30 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@wrathofgnon We know that modern grains are far less nutritious than ancient grains. Turns out even our great-grand parents ate vegetables that were many times as nutritious as what we are eating today. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1172843628898578433   Permalink 8:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, “unforeseen outcomes”. When will IYIs learn that we don’t understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism? pic.twitter.com/YOAZcvKKav Permalink 6:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A reminder that neuroscience, psychology, etc. are NOT reliable, not citable, not useable for anything other than tenure & academic rent seeking. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/   Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/myKY0meoT6 Permalink 12:47 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR R^2 is expected to be 0 but in small samples it shows much higher value, here .98. Small is anything <10^8. (cont) pic.twitter.com/3EDMSvpbEB Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt   Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x”>  pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x Permalink 12:41 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Didn’t we put this, @normonics, in our Precautionary Principle paper? Where did it go? pic.twitter.com/aQ1zF0Peki Permalink 11:20 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb You can’t industrialize, commoditize, & scale knowledge without destroying it at is core. Scholarship is fundamentally an artisanal-style pursuit. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@Contrepoints Face au terrorisme, les #neoconservateurs pensent pouvoir utiliser l’hégémonie politique, militaire et diplomatique pour façonner un monde à leur convenance. Pour @nntaleb, ils font trois erreurs constantes que @FredericMasCP nous explique. #Bolton #Trump https://www.contrepoints.org/2019/09/12/353340-donald-trump-limoge-john-bolton-un-revers-pour-les-neoconservateurs   Permalink 11:06 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From experience, I haven’t seen erudites inside academia (few exceptions). By erudition, I mean solid knowledge (ancient languages, history, mathematics, literature-but-not-literary-theories) & naturally exclude knowledge of crap & theories written since 1924 in social “science”. https://twitter.com/T_Libo/status/1172555372982390785   Permalink 10:17 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The association “juzur lubnan” is doing great environmental work; but it is named using loan words from Arabic. Should be renamed “Shlush Lebnén”. #Localism #StandAgainstArabImperialism Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Neomania in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/berensjoshua/status/1172531835454152705   Permalink 8:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “naturalistic fallacy” is not a fallacy outside the moral domain. Gabish? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I am scared of living in a society that doesn’t find it obvious that things perfected by nature over millions of years are scientifically speaking, safer than things made by some “scientists” in a lab. [Corrected] Statistically, the “large n” of nature makes it > scientific. https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/1139279122516054018   Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb No bureaucrats in peace discussions without some adult supervision. PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   #Blackswanman http://blackswanman.com/#lg=1&slide=41   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ”>  pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ Permalink 5:12 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb NEgotiation. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This was predictive: Black Swan Man tells Trump to have NO bureaucrat involved in ANY peace negociation. No bureaucrat in anything other than record keeping/clerical stuff. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864   Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt   Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT”>  pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT Permalink 12:51 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@TheBobber Plant-based burgers may be “safe” but they are loaded with crap that Your Grandmother would not recognize and you would be wise (and healthier) to heed the advice of @nntaleb and avoid them. https://twitter.com/GastroHistory/status/1172214307636932608   Permalink 11:39 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The only honest scientific approach to a system as large and complex as the “climate” is one of acknowledging uncertainty, and proceeding with precaution https://fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf   Permalink 6:13 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The incessant interventionism of @BillGates and his ilk is enabled by the pathological certainty generated by scientism https://twitter.com/argumentwinner/status/1171979948342546432   Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@city_affairs “The intellectual yet idiot is subscribed to the New Yorker” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/DanielleRyanJ/status/1172109337738862592   Permalink 6:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@oskarth @nntaleb Squid ink in Venesia pic.twitter.com/93o0fEx5Ae Permalink 5:53 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3rd is the Charm. This continues Cirillo & Taleb (2016, 2019), Clauset (2018) showing Pinker @sapinker statement on decline of wars is total BS. @BillGates shd read the scientific literature before peddling Pinker’s flawed journalistic book. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1171960638882467845   Permalink 5:06 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Good news: Jon Entine and the Genetics Literary Project are designed to intimidate and smear GMO skeptics. They kept spread articles on yours truly. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1172111865616490496   Permalink 5:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@financequant Got a big laugh in my class this afternoon. “In most sciences if reality and the model don’t match, then the model is deemed wrong. In economics that’s taken as evidence that there is something wrong with reality.” Thing is, I wasn’t trying to be funny. Permalink 5:24 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Excellent news. 40 years of sanctions… Enough unnecessary tensions. Had bureaucrats been involved, the 30 year war would have lasted 300 years. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1171812365576409088   Permalink 1:55 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Il faudrait le traduire en francais. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 1:32 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb France is listening to the idea that IQ is largely a fraud. https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1171826033294741505   Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A French essayist watched me during a twitter fight. pic.twitter.com/SAFf1rdMeO Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In Brazil met a fellow who plants trees for paper; claimed the 000s trees he planted yuuugely help the environment. STATIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book they cut a tree. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book, they plant a tree for 5-15 years. Use paper! Similar to ergodicity. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Since @davidgraeber is a target of Quilletbeciles, here is some information about their intellectual standards. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1171507313045209088.html   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I celebrate a certain class of events (Bolton’s demise, Pinker’s new BS) by drinking Советское шампанское, the only think left from the Soviet Union that still makes sense. Or rather, by taking a few celebratory sips then switching to vodka, arak, pastis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetskoye_Shampanskoye   https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1171511489871536132   Permalink 4:41 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In one word, you get Steven Pinker @sapinker and the Mickey Mouse version of Western thought. Never read anything about the enlightenment by anyone (1) insufficiently trained in Greek/Latin, (2) not familiar w/medieval thought, (3) not familiar with theology (comes with (2)) https://twitter.com/_benoux_/status/1171520517586636802   Permalink 1:37 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Another reminder that @charlesmurray is a fake scholar, without even going into his Bell Curve. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640   Permalink 1:15 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There goes my diet! Forgot about this plan to have champaign on the day Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/Bardiaexe/status/1171490805283901440?s=20   Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb That’s the NYT. Trump not looking for regime change in Iran. pic.twitter.com/8HwaHJsI7d Permalink 11:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Thank you. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1171452881729228802   Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Transitivity of correlation abused. An #Offshorecomic strip idea sparked by @nntaleb #correlation #IQ #transitivity #SocialSciences For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Buy my here https://buff.ly/2NQzbjY   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup”>  pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb IQ does not PREDICT career success. Now that I have the data, found the R^2 close to 0. pic.twitter.com/NmZiaK22xN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: Better presented in a Log Log Plot. 15-25 dimensions exceed the computational capacity of the planet. DNA has 000s dimensions. pic.twitter.com/UpK4TW1Dkm Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@satyakatla What contrasts Taleb frm information theorists (ITs), IMHO, is that he does math mystical, finds physical significance, which I don’t see amongst my wireless (who does mechanically) and IT folks. I’ve had learned more math just by following Taleb than any coursework I had taken. Permalink 5:42 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Rates do not reflect probability but expectation: “recessions” can take many values. This is BS. Will add to the paper on the flaws in binarizing forecasts (cc:@spyrosmakrid ) https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1171392223595905024   Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: it always shows up. Here I illustrate it with norms. Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don’t work, etc. pic.twitter.com/DAR8M4bTFv Permalink 5:16 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@QuintusCurtius Great thread. See @nntaleb rip into this historically-inaccurate, agenda-driven depiction of St. Augustine, who was of either Punic (i.e., Phoenician) or Berber ancestry. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1166786776259878912   Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 22 years of fighting for that simple point, everyone understands except social scientists, GMO shills, and ignorant risk peddlers . 22 years: How many fraudsters such as nudgeboy @r_thaler or Phil-the-rat Tetlock @PTetlock should we go through before we get that point? Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From 1997 https://twitter.com/JerryCap/status/1171051074775654401   Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Voila The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3 pic.twitter.com/kY2A3MoFkI Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Added the tutorial on norms to the book (Chapter 3) to show what happens with higher moments of distributions. pic.twitter.com/yvxQaalInx Permalink 5:13 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb David Blaine just tore a deck of cards in half —a real deck. pic.twitter.com/JL97MMuiY3 Permalink 3:00 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of pencilwits didn’t get that it does not mean people always do things for money; it just means that those who are doing somthing “not for the money” don’t go out of their way to inform you of that fact. Blocked a bunch. Permalink 2:50 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb When someone says “I am not doing it for the money” he (she) is doing it only for the money. Permalink 9:54 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@QustnEverything Over 10 years since the last recession—this is a reason to be cautious; not complacent. From @nntaleb “The Black Swan” pic.twitter.com/Kr86v3xZJC Permalink 9:30 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most humiliating moment: had (a long) dinner afterwards with the 3 cousins who spoke no English. Tried babbling in Portuguese, with help from a few Negronis, two caipirinhas &, of course, wine. At the end one of them complimented me: “how come you speak Spanish?” Permalink 1:44 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Because μεράκι I see as “soul in the game” https://twitter.com/GreekEtymology/status/1170467531955609605?s=20   Permalink 3:51 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Is there a connection between the Greek μεράκι , the Lebanese mara2, (meaning enjoying some activity for its own sake, not the Arabic مرق meaning chicken broth), and the Turkish Meraklı? If so, where is the root coming from? Permalink 12:48 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@EmersonSpartz It’s pure laziness to think procrastination is caused by laziness. “Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.” -@nntaleb Permalink 10:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dunya guzeli https://twitter.com/ahmadzada_ulkar/status/1170239184029782017   Permalink 7:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference. pic.twitter.com/VgwkbXBZ9v Permalink 6:03 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@apas .@nntaleb-like vignette. pic.twitter.com/LOtKNASgk6 Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@NavariniLorenzo Italian ambassador to Austria, Sergio Barbanti, is citing @nntaleb’s Black Swan for opening a seminar on diplomat Nigra in Vienna! I guess that the lindy effect is, slowly, working pic.twitter.com/7yUTE0zfQJ Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@DrGeneCallahan Over-optimizations: Sterilized kitchens Avoidance of all possible allergens with kids Weight machines that isolate a muscle Work schedules with no slack Economies with no downturns @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness from the 70s to the late 90s, NY was not good-but-crap, rather crap-but-great. Permalink 8:08 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@thackerpd 1 5 Switching gears: Brief lecture on how #Monsanto tracks and works to counter reporters such as @sfoucart @stephanehorel @tristanwaleckx @gaellombart Document shows #Monsanto strategy w/ help from PR firm @PublicisGroupe to counter #MonsantoPapers https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6382792-Monsanto-Response-to-LeMonde.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3″>  pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3 Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the “CRAP BUT GOOD” category, there is an expression about Paolo Maluf: “Maluf steals but delivers” as he kept being reelected in spite of accusations of corruption. Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI. https://twitter.com/JacopoBambino/status/1169927189128777728?s=20   Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Keep trying, blind idiots. https://twitter.com/techreview/status/1169921428969480192   Permalink 4:12 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Don’t judge a city by bureaucratic criteria like traffic jams, cleanliness, safety, etc., but by something deeper in the soul of the place. Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom.” (“NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good”) Permalink 3:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of (tasty) meat in the Republica Federativa do Brasil. pic.twitter.com/eDBlIoLfg3 Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Churrasco Brasileiro pic.twitter.com/jhwLDIMiWv Permalink 9:23 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Correction: Sao Paolo is pronounced like the French “saon”. Permalink 6:28 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sao Paulo Don’t be fooled by the orthography. “Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”. pic.twitter.com/iC48aBofAr Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sidley Austin did nothing “illegal”. But smearing, targeting, mobbing, and lying are UNETHICAL practices. Unacceptable! Boycott/Blacklist Sidley Austin. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1169556720089214976   Permalink 3:31 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@adrianaleboss @BLebnene pic.twitter.com/H5mLTHRH6i Permalink 10:28 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@JoshHochschild This price is back. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156891266220773377   Permalink 7:50 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Mangan150 Why is Vegetable Oil in EVERYTHING? | The History and Corruption Behind Processed Oils https://youtu.be/OGLwGOvvWeg   Permalink 5:17 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you have been employed by someone (Trump, Hillary, or Joey The Knife) as a personal assistant, it is yuugely unethical for you to ever divulge what you saw or heard in that capacity. (Except, of course, if you are subpoenaed, witnessed murder, were asked to commit a crime…) Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@ishirubi It’s September now. Usually, habitually I still buy notebooks and pens for myself. This year it’s different. Grabbed the book for a second round, reading preface, chills chills chills. Looks like I forgot a lot since January. Here we go! #rereadincerto #FooledbyRandomness pic.twitter.com/6sGwFyqXZE Permalink 12:59 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Prof_BearB Following in the footsteps of Cirillo and Taleb (2016) and Clauset (2018), I hasten to note :-) Thank you, and thanks for the shout-out! https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1169333423380541443   Permalink 12:39 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If these finance “academics” could predict they would not be academics. The only thing they know is how to become academics. https://twitter.com/financialtimes/status/1169227337449312257   Permalink 6:49 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/BjRG2tVnuO Permalink 2:54 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you lose money, it can be bad luck. It you blow up, it is certainly incompetence. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 2:39 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. If you lose money, it can be bad luck. If you blow up, it is never bad luck. https://twitter.com/mightykaos41/status/1169061510339014656   Permalink 2:32 AM – 4 Sep 2019

Pinker, Old Twitter, Epstein, @AlanDersh, LTCM, Option Pricing, GENETICS, Nudging, Eddie Hall, #Corporatism, IQ, Dawkins, #RWRI, Psychologists, Principia Politica, @TulsiGabbard | Twitter

@nntaleb Ms @Rania_Masri I wonder if they subjected you to some middle-school elementary reasoning test before you became “professor”? The Lebanese ministry is NOT preventing foreigners taking jobs that the Lebanese don’t wants to perform. @RaniaKhalek https://twitter.com/rania_masri/status/1152239325972783105?s=20   Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there are 7 severe logical fallacies in your response (I mean severe, severe defects in reasoning). Can you find at least one? Give it a try. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152226133976518658   Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4 Competition ended the long forecasting winter A description of the M4, its major findings/conclusions and detail Tables are available in https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.014   Preparations for the M5 that will use high frequency/hierarchical data have started, scientific advisor NN Taleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ExyziTzJ2d”>  pic.twitter.com/ExyziTzJ2d Permalink 6:54 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Oppa! https://twitter.com/creek_mudd/status/1152190401664704512   Permalink 5:57 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn I have disagreed @nntaleb in the past for being too harsh with Pinker, because it seemed to me that Pinker was wrong but not dishonest. I have now revised my opinion Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn An ethical person does not regret telling the truth in a court of law, even when a bad person benefits from it. This is so important that it’s one of the Ten Commandments Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn I read Pinker’s letter of defense (linked) and was disgusted. Not because he did a favor for a friend, and not because contributed to Epstein’s defense, but because he now regrets it https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2019/07/12/tarring-steve-pinker-and-others-with-jeffrey-epstein/   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1150780000108457992   Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, please go to the UN in NY and shout blames at Iran, Russia, Belarus, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, China, Turkey, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, France, Panama, Romania, Thailand, CH, HK, Malaysia, Mexico, Colombia, Liberia, Ethiopia… for discrimination against foreigners. Permalink 4:55 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152174536118415360   Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152174536118415360   Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@QuintusCurtius The Roman dictator Sulla composed his own epitaph, which was: “No friend ever served me, and no enemy ever wronged me, whom I have not repaid in full.” There is a reason why he was called Sulla Felix, or Sulla the Happy. Permalink 10:21 PM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Twitter, @twitter, the new Twitter is horrible. Please give us back the old one. Permalink 4:17 PM – 18 Jul 2019

@mikeandallie (1/5 ish) I missed this tweet yesterday, but thankfully it showed up in my feed today thanks to a retweet from @financequant . The topic of the paper is the question a options trader friend asked me for help on 20+ years ago. It is amazingly cool to see the problem solved. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1151571849685454850   Permalink 10:28 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Intellectual fraud. https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1151617534845698049   Permalink 9:56 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Good news about the American justice system. It corrects itself. Epstein gamed it before with his part time “prison” sentence, something the poor could not afford. He used detectives to (legally) expose the private lives of his witnesses. 000s of offenders cannot afford bail. https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1151877502178123777   Permalink 9:05 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Improved (the LTCM blow up story) pic.twitter.com/l3K0ozQsu7 Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb BTW, this was explained 20 years ago in Fooled By Randomness but few got the exact point then. People are surprised to discover that the Incerto has a mathematical backbone. pic.twitter.com/hP4uVGjbeK Permalink 6:59 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY OF PROBABILITY Asymmetry of inference: How to reject the Gaussian in favor of a power law. Easier than you think. From a Quiz posted here. Added to my new book https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0opH4pHgSa”>  pic.twitter.com/0opH4pHgSa Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@TheBillfish Mr. Taleb is 100% right. Execs at publicly traded companies are the equivalent of Communist Party Members, blindly and ruthlessly, doing what they are told to protect their station in life. So few add any value at all, and even fewer bring any innovation. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1151660033891024896   Permalink 5:16 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb روحي و روحك يا روحي روحين بروح ان راحت روحك يا روحي روحي بتروح Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/jonboguth/status/1151665693890359297?s=20   Permalink 6:45 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Practically, any CEO who “rose through the ranks” is competent at being an actor. No exception. Entrepreneur or nothing. https://twitter.com/SOhimor/status/1151663542715723776?s=20   Permalink 6:35 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Anyone who does not distinguish between wealth generation via risk taking and rent-seeking will be blocked here. CEOs are rent seekers –so are B-School types. Innovators and entrepreneurs are risk-takers. Small business owners are risk-takers. We need risk takers. #Skininthegame Permalink 6:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb And year after year the rich are different. #ergodocity https://twitter.com/randpaul/status/1151534219027460097   Permalink 5:12 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 3) Solution and methodology pic.twitter.com/wmkNz6MeUR Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) SIMILAR PROBLEM: Someone tells you he saw a human 3 meter tall. What is the probability of the person being delusional (and no such thing as a 3m human) vs the probability of the person being sane and indeed there is a 3m human. Wittgenstein’s ruler, again, but in math form. Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You can inverse the prior to a breakeven point. Permalink 1:11 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Let’s revisit the QUIZ more formally (I am adding it to my next book). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1003029601625485312   Permalink 12:51 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I can curse on Twitter but never on the page and never never inside my library(ies), simple separation holy/profane. You need separations holy/profane. #Lindy https://twitter.com/JT_ZLC/status/1151576128081006592   Permalink 12:39 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Talking skin in the game: the above pricing is what I have done heuristically, not formally, all my career in option trading. Every single person who held that “tails are expensive” have blown up (LTCM, Niederhoffer, bankers and other idiots) We just formalized & made public. Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Great day, finished the paper on option pricing under power laws. Mother of all results. Shows how tails are underpriced, EVEN now, how theories that tails are “expensive” are by sub-imbeciles. PLEASE TRY TO DEBUNK PAPER (but politely). https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pzzXmvRu9z”>  pic.twitter.com/pzzXmvRu9z Permalink 12:18 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb To understand non-interventionism and skin in the game in international affairs, and what it has to do with multiscale localism https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Eg8vssypvI”>  pic.twitter.com/Eg8vssypvI Permalink 12:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntalebbot “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Your political opinion has no value if you don’t try to act closer to a judge than to an advocate. Your political opinion has no value if you are an unconditional supporter or detractor of a president. Gabish? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 11:10 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@CliffordAsness Nassim wouldn’t block me. He doesn’t block you for being wrong, which I might often be, but for being dishonest. Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@DanielLMcAdams If I were the neocons I’d resign in protest!! Time to go, boys! https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/17/rand-paul-iran-talks-donald-trump-1418075   Permalink 10:45 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The ancient Mediterranean : before monotheism, people changed and exchanged rites and gods as we do with ethnic food.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:16 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@encrier Today is the feast day of Saint Marina the Monk, or Marinos, a Lebanese saint and Patron Saint of Amiun in Northern Phoenicia (@nntaleb). She is venerated by Roman Catholics, Greek Orthodox, Maronites and Copts. May her story be an inspiration to those who read it. pic.twitter.com/JntHGmHep0 Permalink 1:12 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb But of course the map has mistakes. There were Phoenician colonies in Provence (Ramatuelle= רמת אל, possibly Marseilles ), Ionia (Miletus). Also note the Punic settlements in the South Med all the way to Spain, a route taken by the “Arabic” language, picked up for similarity Permalink 2:07 PM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Interesting for those of us who are both. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1150824855329288192   Permalink 1:00 PM – 16 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society; the empiricist an imbecile-proof one, or even better, a rationalist-proof one.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:20 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It does not mean you can’t criticize a system; it means you can’t go after the very foundations of the system that got you there –the Godel-Popper rule. Some minorities have minority rules. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15?source=post_stats_page—————————   Permalink 8:14 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Friends, any questions not covered in Principia Politica? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ixwVWivh8s”>  pic.twitter.com/ixwVWivh8s Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #yoga Permalink 7:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Even in Technical Schools, administrators have degrees in “Education” hence indocrination & propaganda. These “education experts” are taking over universities & largely responsible for the rise in costs. Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ideas of expropriation are present among educators as they are prone to social envy. They frequent the rich & feel “I am smart why I am not rich” yet have NO hope of making it on their own. It is therefore natural they indoctrinate our children. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 5:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Before listening to Omar & Tlaib, consider than their parents chose to find REFUGE in the US, not another country. It’s a nonrandom choice. Illegals are crossing borders in ONE direction. I myself came to America because of its properties. Preserving them is my duty. Permalink 5:01 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Society is being destroyed by schools and college teachers. Your children are indocrinated by people who are doing what they are doing because of their limited intellect and practical skills. And the costs TO YOU of such indocrination are ballooning. https://twitter.com/professorf/status/1150916425868910593   Permalink 5:20 PM – 15 Jul 2019

@RandPaul Proud that @realDonaldTrump and I argued with you against endless wars! @POTUS made it clear to all of us at the table, we are getting out of the Middle East quagmire. We’ve been there too long. Time to bring our troops home. https://twitter.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/1150542489549336576   Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb MATH PROBLEM DU JOUR In honor of Alexander B. who passed a year ago last week by @SamuelGWalters cc:@SvetlanaBogom13 https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1142642280387342336   Permalink 9:42 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@Jeffrey_the2nd “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” @nntaleb Permalink 9:17 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) Steven Pinker misrepresented his meeting with me. I merely exchanged email & trivialities. There was NO technical discussion. So you can take with grain of salt what he says abt #epstein. Besides never diss pple who hosted you (dinner, plane). pic.twitter.com/62fOjUyZRG Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@MarkDice YouTube just demonetized my video about my trip to the White House! It was approved last night, and then as soon as it was published, it was demonetized. Really @TeamYouTube? C’mon. What a joke. pic.twitter.com/6pItapZt98 Permalink 7:13 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@LebaneseAlefBet ܒܬܰܥܪܶܦ݂ ܬܶܩܪܐ ܗܰܝܕܰܐ ܠ ܟ݂ܰܛ؟ Bta3ref teqra hayda l 5at? ܐ ܒ ܓ ܕ #ܐܬ Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I am nearly certain she is vegetarian, maybe even vegan. https://www.thedailybeast.com/lashana-lynch-will-play-first-female-007-in-new-james-bond-movie-report?source=twitter&via=desktop   via @thedailybeast Permalink 5:46 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never never compromise. Say it the way it is. Permalink 3:51 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No. It’s not by arguing with “kindness & care” that you break academic mafias, criminal organizations, impostors (psychologists) & lobbying groups. It is by exposing them, making their lives miserable & targeting their audience. Never never argue with a paid BS vendor. Gabish? https://twitter.com/learnfromerror/status/1150287002027397120   Permalink 2:33 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Unlike correlation, Mutual Information scales to noise. Shows how correlation of .63 is half the information of .795! pic.twitter.com/XJjHmhk9pQ Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb As to language: stop the intellectual fraud. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c?source=post_stats_page—————————   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Some philology: Ehden does not come from Paradise or Gan Eden with a (ע), but from Adon (same root as Adonis). pic.twitter.com/QrlP71tZ6q Permalink 10:19 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Food is Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Traditional dress in Lebanon is East Med/Balkan not “Arab” Music in Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Genetics in Leb are East Med not “Arab” Language in Leb is NOT mutually understandable w/Class “Arabic” When will this Arabist fraud stop? pic.twitter.com/GQeueGbOmv Permalink 9:53 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Practically, your excellency @EUAmbLebanon, NO village in Lebanon has an Arabic name. Ehden is from Aramaic. So are ALL other villages in the North, with the exception of a few Greco-Roman names. Let’s stop this Arabism fraud. https://twitter.com/EUAmbLebanon/status/1150315616735301632   Permalink 9:32 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@bmiloy We were observing the overlap between #RWRI crowd and @SS_strength crowd. I got to SS via @nntaleb; Grant got to Antifragile via @CoachRippetoe. The cultures attract: no-nonsense and no tolerance for BS. Permalink 4:43 PM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is the very definition of anachronistic bigoteering, a violation of the code of political expression, in Principia Politica. Soon we will ban every document written between the emergence of writing in Sumer and the Obama presidency as tainded with “prejudice”. https://twitter.com/AyannaPressley/status/1146788737923407872   Permalink 12:42 PM – 13 Jul 2019

@SteveLaudig @nntaleb https://www.psychologicalscience.org/publications/observer/obsonline/textbook-analysis-uncovers-erroneous-explanations-of-statistical-significance.html?utm_source=APS+Emails&utm_campaign=7b5b70fee3-PSU_071219&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d2c7283f04-7b5b70fee3-62670051   Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Something to thicken the plot for @Safaitic: Did Semitic languages go to Ethiopia from Eurasia/the Levant? Ethiopia is clearly a back migration, and a recent one! pic.twitter.com/VPZkLwcWan Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@otrasenda_AC Thank you Maestro, since you started with the IQ debunking I stop using correlación, now using Mutual Information. I’ve been suspecting that correlation had a lot of issues but you out it Crystal clear Permalink 9:45 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Not how markets work. If the stock price surged on the news, it means the price (which had been pricing-in the information way before the announcement) was embedding the expectation of a more severe fine. https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1149943366848843777   Permalink 8:24 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Separate people into 2 categories: prostitutes vs. those who do things for love, like Maestro B. did math for love. Academics are mostly prostitutes working for rank, metrics, prestige, etc. Or playing the system a la @sapinker — @MarcosCarreira helped & wrote an epilogue. Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb GENETICS (PROBABILITY) DU JOUR Points that appear equidistant in PCAs the way they are presented should not be! It you translate into Mutual information, you get a different story. A correlation of .5 is a lot closer to .4 than it is to .6 ! pic.twitter.com/XKcDeujOdR Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@EastMedMonitor Nice one answering NeoOttoman false education…. I wonder what % of “Turks” in Turkey has originated from the Mongol invaders? The rest are islamized Christian population! Do the Turks dare to check if their “history” is substantiated by genetics science?@nntaleb any comments? https://twitter.com/pan_naxos/status/1149039774780579840   Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@EastMedMonitor My comment is not to prove anything nationalistic but to say that the people wish good neibourhood relations,peace and stability and basically we are one race genetically in #EastMed .Prejudice,religion and false education turns one against the other Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Maestro B. lived for math, in a nonacademic way. He had a hearing problem & left academia to do math. Luckily he was close to finishing the book compiling the twitter probability riddles. The book is now finished; to be published thanks to @WolframResearch Pict 2 w before. pic.twitter.com/VxmR5q2Dxg Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb A YEAR WITHOUT MAESTRO ALEXANDER B. One Saturday morning, last July when I opened Twitter to engage Maestro Alexander Bogomolny, @CutTheKnotMath, I received a DM from his son saying he was no longer with us. Maestro had built a yuuugely motivated community around his math. Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never complain about your enemies. You can insult them, anger them, expose them, but never whine about them. Push them to complain about you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@spyrosmakrid Is there a better way to predict the next economic downturn? (see https://fortune.com/2019/07/11/economic-downturn-prediction/  ) By looking at the behavior of business cycles the answer is no https://www.nber.org/cycles.html   see also Graph So the best alternative is to accept it https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/why-forecasts-fail-what-to-do-instead/   @nntaleb @mikeharrisNY ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Whm28jd9oK”>  pic.twitter.com/Whm28jd9oK Permalink 12:37 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@oldmanjingles And @nntaleb is twitter’s, and the world’s, most overrated. don’t @ me. Permalink 5:28 PM – 12 Jul 2019

@iosif_lazaridis A misrepresentation of our Haak, Lazaridis et al. (2015) study @SmithsonianMag “They particularly latched onto two studies from 2015 which claimed to show … that predatory bands of young men from the Yamnaya culture of the Eurasian steppe swept…” https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-ancient-dna-gets-politicized-180972639/   Permalink 4:24 PM – 12 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:59 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@normonics As @nntaleb has articulated, the existence of localism is related to the identification of what it is that in fact persists. This is related to Whitehead’s fallacy of misplaced concreteness: we confuse the administrative with the actual A town persists longer than a nation. Permalink 10:31 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@CaseyBHead A huge systemic risk that almost no one talks about, except @nntaleb. Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Thanks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1148774867791175680   Permalink 8:43 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I’ve done numerous podcasts w/@EconTalker: each one is about a specific point; you try to go as deep as possible. It’s not about the person but the narrowly defined subject matter. Permalink 7:19 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Although I agree with libertarians on many points, the rich (Epstein) should never have an advantage w/ JUSTICE over a poorer (or weaker) person. Epstein used $$ to hire detectives & bully his victims & the prosecutors. Hence the Acosta deal. Legally. Permalink 6:35 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@ninconanco21 These yutzes need to read @nntaleb. Augustine was half Berber, who are Mediterraneans, not Arabs and not black Africans. https://twitter.com/scottmgreer/status/1149668167674765312   Permalink 6:18 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those not getting it: he inflicted worse than a double injury, a compound one. The girls were victims of abuse & subsequently the targets of a smear campaign. Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The most loathsome thing abt Epstein: he had detectives probe the lives of the girls who accused him, & reveal embarrassing stories in court. Girls were too scared to testify. This may explain Acosta’s deal. @AlanDersh, as his lawyeer, you must have known about these tactics. Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is a mistake to think that science has anything to do with scientists. Science is a mechanism. See SCALE TRANSFORMATION in my new treatise PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hor7fKldad”>  pic.twitter.com/Hor7fKldad Permalink 1:20 PM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Closed to podcasts; except for those with @EconTalker because it can be two-way Socratic. I learned a lot from him. & his audience is v. sophisticated. If your idea doesn’t grow from the conversation it becomes downright marketing. & painful conversation. TV lasts only 3 minutes. Permalink 10:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/mrbenjohnstone/status/1149353521910878209   Permalink 9:40 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Some people are starting to get from the paper above why psychologists are charlatans https://twitter.com/eduardohorta/status/1102904900768489472?s=20   Permalink 9:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@MohajerSia @nntaleb I’ve learned more from reading the Incerto 2X this year than I have from wasting a good portion of my life in formal education. You probably won’t see this tweet but the Incerto helped me learn new ways/tools to better understand my life and the world around me. Permalink 9:07 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb New Draft (related to IQ testing): Common Misapplications and Misinterpretations of Correlation in Social “Science” https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   via @academia Permalink 8:24 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Updated my next technical book (Technical Incerto, Vol1). Will soooooon be done. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   via @academia Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@MarcGoldich “Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience.” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/974280945388965888?s=21   https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1149223504652513281   Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@CTrivalle « La modernité nous inflige un châtiment double : vieillir beau- coup plus tôt et mourir beaucoup plus tard. » (@nntaleb ) Permalink 9:36 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard The #1 responsibility our president has is as Commander in Chief. As a soldier for more than 16 years who has deployed twice to the Middle East, I will be ready to be Commander in Chief on day one, and I won’t be listening to the chicken hawks clamoring for more war. #Tulsi2020 pic.twitter.com/YLceDyg5XN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY & GENETIC MAPS The distance between points needs to be scaled differently from correlation methods: covariances do not map to informational distances. We need to redo genetic maps from scratch! @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/OIfNbG0Ka5 Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Salafi sheikh in France is banning French students from studying non-Sharia law as “paganism”. Clearly, EU ketchupbrains, Salafism is not a “religion” but an absorbing law. EU ketchupbrains were fighting “terrorism” when that stuff has been funded by Saudi Barbaria/Qatar. https://twitter.com/breakofmilv/status/1095053726249828357   Permalink 2:45 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The smart thing Trump could do is dump him. https://twitter.com/secretaryacosta/status/1148618148490481664   Permalink 7:04 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink with @auerswald pic.twitter.com/9PDx1nRAwJ Permalink 5:49 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Guru @GuruAnaerobic has a theory that what makes life easy for predators is that there are suckers who walk around with “Sucker” written on their forehead. Below: both the speaker and the audience. https://twitter.com/NESTInsight/status/1146736084413505536?s=20   Permalink 12:19 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Laibson at a lecture explained how pple are irrational & need nudging: “this is a great investment strategy guaranteed to make money. Yet people don’t invest much, they need nudge”. Didn’t hit him that citizens can detect that such strategy may be a sucker trap for Harvard profs. Permalink 11:45 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Nudging is the most sinister activity whereby IYIs (who can’t find a coconut on a coconut island) manipulate citizens. Much more sinister than outright state control because you don’t know feel the manipulation. People like Laibson and Thaler need to be exposed. https://twitter.com/NESTInsight/status/1146736084413505536   Permalink 11:35 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: You can’t fool entropy measures. Mutual information is nonzero for “uncorrelated” fat tails simply because they are uncorrelated but not independent! Also pulls the MI for a Student cc:@ArthurB pic.twitter.com/5Z4NImxNF0 Permalink 7:27 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Deutsche Bank, a summary: The Robert Rubin Trade. Banking is about hiding tail risks and the accumulation of tail exposures. Claims that it is “safe”. Society pays for the blowups. pic.twitter.com/ob1e3PeeLG Permalink 4:40 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@BiankaB12 One of the more valuable lessons I’ve learned in school is that degrees without erudition are not worth the paper they were printed on. Later in life, @nntaleb confirmed this axiom, and his work helped change the course of my life in a lot of ways. https://medium.com/@BiankaB12/on-education-an-institutionalized-destruction-of-virtues-1ba7fd57e3f9   Permalink 4:15 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Random order https://twitter.com/junkiedragon/status/1148368675608682496   Permalink 4:13 PM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Epstein claims his activity is “Managing money for people with net worth > 1 bil”. DUBIOUS. Family office not an easy business; very unprofitable, people underpaid: billionaires have zillions of financiers watching their money. Plus the customer base is narrow. Permalink 1:57 PM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I once drove Mandelbrot to Epstein’s mansion in NY. Had never heard of him & nobody else knew him yet Epstein was a publicity hog. Warned M. maybe laundering or mafia, not finance, shd avoid him. There are financiers who leave no footprint but those never have public life. https://twitter.com/libertyblitz/status/1148290935148535808   Permalink 11:28 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Those who believe that “statistically the least educated vote Conservative.” means “the most intelligent” need some real world education. https://twitter.com/profamirattaran/status/1148268855413944323   Permalink 10:18 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY yawmiyyé Min wén jéyé klmét “tfingé”? Ma 3am lé2é masdara. Permalink 6:33 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Interventionistas (Iraq, Lybia, Syria) such as Thomas Friedman (@tomfriedman @NYT), thanks to industrial scale, have each caused more deaths than any artisanal serial killer. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1148203732720672774   Permalink 6:21 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@john_f_hamer A CELEBRATION OF WHAT WORKS: A conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, and why stated beliefs habitually fail to reveal underlying preferences. https://apple.co/2GQWrY4   @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wp2rrXPYAR”>  pic.twitter.com/Wp2rrXPYAR Permalink 5:09 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Here is are probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww/videos   Permalink 4:03 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Here is my probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww   https://twitter.com/Capeya1/status/1146239661079171072   Permalink 3:51 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is mostly noise. But read the “correlation” buzzwords BS to see how “Phd” pple don’t know how to think. https://twitter.com/aedmans/status/1147494932183179264   Permalink 4:53 PM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally, the country IQ for Lebanon is total fraud. It was designed by a fraudulent group [see tweets]. Even proxies don’t compute, since math education level is higher than Western Europe. Permalink 9:47 AM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Bed of Procrustes, 2nd ed. Permalink 5:56 AM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Determination https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1147674538324267008   Permalink 6:24 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb IQ testing is like making cars compete in a racetrack, and use it to make claims about their ability to cross a dense forest (with unpaved roads) such as the Amazon. Permalink 5:07 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Crossing my fingers. I have some Champagne ready for the day when Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/GarethPorter/status/1147606311326158850   Permalink 1:50 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright. Permalink 8:28 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So Thanks to Maestro @ArmandDAngour we can surmise that people at the hippodrome of Tyre, Lebanon, were shouting “Eλα!” centuries before the very notion of “ya alla” and monotheism could have reached them. @Jonassibony pic.twitter.com/A5TeCJI72E Permalink 5:47 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ma 7ada min jdudak 7kyo lfs7a, la bin 2arib, w la min b3id. Permalink 5:40 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM,1 Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. Ministries & agencies aren’t run by ministers & transitory figureheads, but by a “deep local microstate” of civil servants who have been there for decades & “own” the inside. Worse: EPA was run by Monsanto, FAA by Boeing. Permalink 5:02 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb In today’s ultra-differentiated ecosystem, being a PROBABILIST is a valuable specialization. It’s all applied nonstandard statistics. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1005490626195017728   Permalink 2:21 PM – 5 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard 94,379 unique donors! Keep spreading the word and RT to share with friends. Become a debate donor and help bring our voice to the 3rd debates! http://tulsi.to/the-debates   Permalink 12:40 PM – 5 Jul 2019

@MatthiasGalvin If there’s one thing I’ve learned from @nntaleb it’s that understanding probability theory is yuuuuuugely more useful than understanding tools of statistics Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@BryanAccra “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:08 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@yvespatte “It is vastly more respectable to come to politics rich than come out of it rich” “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connection imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer” – @nntaleb “Principia Politica” https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/lesoirplus/status/1146823037209198598   Permalink 1:30 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@nntaleb More details from real world (finance) applications. Genetics data are Gaussian, making the transformation more robust. pic.twitter.com/FsiWBK28Xt Permalink 4:17 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The Romanian Orthodox Church ows me 2 (re)conversions, at least. https://twitter.com/t_wordy/status/1146873927391514625   Permalink 1:23 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@QuincyMckall @nntaleb explains this better I can https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1015276380416770048?s=19   Permalink 1:08 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Shermer, fucking fabricator, you are trying to divert from the fact that the review is about ANOTHER book, skin in the game, which was done in Skeptic AFTER I exposed you as a charlatan. It is an ethical violation to use a journal to settle scores. An ethical violation. Permalink 8:48 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@LebaneseAlefBet Stop Abusing the Lebanese Language, in Lebanese we say LEBNÉNIYÉ not LEBNÉNIYÍN. https://twitter.com/ChristelleNehm4/status/1145624918052225025   Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Trying genetic maps: they are misinterpreted. “Linear correlation” is nonlinear to information. But a trick for rescaling works when data is Gaussian. cc @ArthurB pic.twitter.com/LC9BhWVx8J Permalink 7:19 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Il dormire fa come il mangiare (Qui dort dine) Dig deep and all these sayings are Med and #lindy https://twitter.com/Spfannenschmidt/status/1146783770512625667   Permalink 7:16 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Eddie Hall @eddiehallWSM who deadlifted >1000lbs lost weight! Apparently without too much effort. Easier to go from strong and fat to strong and fit than from skinny (or skinny fat) to fit. pic.twitter.com/llQWq2oBwg Permalink 5:57 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem with academics is that they really think that nonacademics find them more intelligent than themselves.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:36 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@Sweetvinny1 Harris and Pinker make monstrous errors and Taleb catches them red handed (with documentation, you know, math, that don’t lie) and they attack his personality not his rebuttal and you support it, you fucking half wit. Permalink 4:01 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@Rhiju “boring is the only very bad thing for a book.” – @nntaleb (You can read this one a hundred times & discover something new everytime) http://amzn.in/1rZ9iwx   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6fIVTL5ybV”>  pic.twitter.com/6fIVTL5ybV Permalink 11:55 PM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Hammurabi’s code: false accusers are to be treated as if they committed the violation themselves. #skininthegame #symmetry https://twitter.com/assalehamer/status/1146557975844179968   Permalink 4:29 PM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Having lunch with a vegan fellow. He challenged me: produce solid research and he would change his mind. Solution: asked him to follow @Mangan150 for 40 days as well as the conversation around his posts. Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The larger the corporation, the more likely it will try to screw citizens. Your local butcher, barber, grocer, and baker aren’t in the business of lobbying/manipulating science. Monsanto, Weapons makers, Pharma live off coersion, manipulation of science, & propaganda #Corporatism Permalink 8:28 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) Monoculture & linguistic formalism cannot be maintained without state coersion. 2nd French Nobel in Literature was to Frederic Mistral who wrote in Provencal. The process started by Jules Ferry managed to get it extinct. Micronationalism (Catalan, Basque) is just localism Permalink 7:13 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fascism is an absorbing identity: Napoleonic killing all local languages/cultures; Italian unification, Franco, Ataturk. Worst is “Arabism”. + Monoculture + Centralized state + State defined “identity” via “educated elite” + Nonfractal https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   @QifaNabki Permalink 5:15 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Michael Shermer you published a review of #SkinInTheGame in YOUR journal AFTER I exposed you of a charlatan/intellectual fraud. It is unethical: you should reveal that you are using your journal for such purposes. UNETHICAL. Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1146202975200784385?s=20   Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, after all this procratination time to finish the work on the formalization of the #Lindy effect pic.twitter.com/XTVQNvTtws Permalink 5:28 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Shermer doesn’t get that when someone is called charlatan, & it is true, best strategy for @michaelshermer is to stay quiet. People may then scrutinize his “empiricism” & MY claims. & Using one’s journal for personal retaliation is an ethical violation. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1146169906666151937?s=20   Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@fractalharry Ce moment magique de Twitter où une personne like mon tweet et c’est mon auteur favori @nntaleb auquel j’étais très exactement en train de penser en ecrivant ce même tweet ! (Cf notion de iatrogénie notamment expliquée dans Antifragile.) pic.twitter.com/u9Vc08UC4j Permalink 12:38 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The journalist Pinker @sapinker, while posing for an arbiter of statistical truths, mistakes data for anecdotes and anecdotes for data. Nobody illustrates pseudo-empiricism better than him & that other charlatan @michaelshermer Anecdotes vs statistical significance https://twitter.com/LorenzoWVilla/status/1145815737925345280   Permalink 12:13 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Answer with Monte Carlo to illustrate pic.twitter.com/TTVWkZ7tdA Permalink 11:16 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If the Iliad survived, it is precisely because it is not summarizable. #Lindy https://twitter.com/shaarsh2/status/1146113480577208320   Permalink 10:49 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ThomasJefferson #liberty #independenceday #GOAT pic.twitter.com/KBD96ZnEy4 Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@TheDefenderA My reading choices have changed drastically since reading Incerto. Books by doers (unless it’s a novel, and isn’t a New Age fable i.e. Coelho). Via negtiva – no books by career professors or journalists (w very limited exceptions). Any philosophy – Lindy. Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Political discussions violate rigor/ethics. No matter how much you hate Trump, never blame him for stuff for which you didn’t blame others. The code of ethics is in PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/brandondarby/status/1146045973535309825   Permalink 7:54 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@jadabdala Touristification of minds on the way from Athens to Berytus. In the photos – Tourist 1 – Tourist 2 (Coelho, plz no) – Me (fuck you tourists) pic.twitter.com/YTLK2kxgYc Permalink 5:20 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) The entropy/information theory approach to correlation is mutual information, similar to Kelly criterion: How much can I bet on the value of Y knowing X? If Y certain (ρ=1), infinite. If ρ=½, tiny. All IQ psychology is worthless. Permalink 4:36 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@hhlahoud It’s amazing how many words we say, are Syriac in origin! Example: ِدِيرْ=ܕܝܪ =direct بال= ܒܳܐܠܳ = mind زَلمي= ܙܰܠܳܡܳܐ= a fellow Lebanese: ! ديرْ بالك من ها الزَلمي Arabic: ! كن حذراً من هذا الشخص English: Beware of this fellow! Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb DataScience 101 #RWRI showed how elementary but nonlinear concepts like “correlation” are poorly understood by pros. One needs to translate ρ into information. See how ρ= ½ is much closer to 0 than to a ρ=1. Yuuge diff betw .9 & .99 Psychologists cluelss for 50 years. 1/n pic.twitter.com/pvnCKJrIwu Permalink 4:32 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb On second thoughts, yuuuuuuuuge caution is needed. There is no foreign “revolution” that Soros did not like… So I wonder about this policy. Plus some individuals can be suspect… So guarded optimism. http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/july/01/shocker-charles-koch-and-george-soros-to-team-up-and-form-foreign-policy-institute/   Permalink 3:05 PM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b   https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1145768968168333312   Permalink 12:22 PM – 1 Jul 2019

@DanielLMcAdams Excellent analytical point. https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1145757977548402695   Permalink 11:19 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ on IQ interpretation I wish some IQ psychologist could walk away from the verbalism BS and answer it. pic.twitter.com/IOR6miRIN3 Permalink 11:08 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Trump Meets Kim In North Korea – Why Are The Democrats Hysterical? – today on the Liberty Report: http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/july/01/trump-meets-kim-in-north-korea-why-are-the-democrats-hysterical/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7Ce0rEOkxg”>  pic.twitter.com/7Ce0rEOkxg Permalink 10:28 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So as Maestro @ArmandDAngour has shown Έλα! has been present in Greek 1200 years before the language now called Arabic reached the Med. The distinction “ya alla” and “yalla” is obvious from noncorrelated usage. https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/1145225927930068992   Permalink 3:46 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Who needs an IQ test when you can detect someone’s coherence, intellectual depth, and ability to reason without circularity in… a single tweet? https://twitter.com/DarrenJBeattie/status/1145529656931758084   Permalink 3:01 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@matthewglickman Please retweet to help #findmaxchung highschooler missing now for 12 days https://twitter.com/nypdmissing/status/1140954238748635136   Permalink 5:51 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Sign me up! Noninterventionism >>> everything else @tparsi https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1145410888612175872   Permalink 1:43 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People don’t get that a publisher in NY selling books written in NY to readers in NY but printing in China needs to obey Chinese censorship. Most annoying is that publishers and authors were wimps: I was the ONLY one to stand up. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book   Permalink 1:01 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Here is my piece on the circularity of tests among other problems: testing is good for testtakers https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 11:04 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Ther’s a serious mathematical mistake in the podcast. If you give more time to the tortoises you will still get a bell curve. The top 10% will have a different composition, fewer hares. You can’t get 20% in the top 10%: the bell curve is normalized. Otherwise @gladwell is right. https://twitter.com/BigTimHerron/status/1145367373941215233   Permalink 10:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Globalization pic.twitter.com/ar0NsBX0Rg Permalink 9:49 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@Jaffer22915438 1) Real World Business & Marketing: What follows is a Tweetstorm that are real life lessons learned the hard way. This is a mini real world entrepreneurial guide. I included links to blog posts when appropriate. Inspired by RWRI & @nntaleb Permalink 8:44 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Wilson justifiably called @RichardDawkins a “journalist”. Dawkins doesn’t understand complicated probabilistic processes. But he is good at bullshitting & swaying the public. https://twitter.com/UtilaTheEcon/status/1145226870717177856   Permalink 4:09 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@PabloinSilence Lo recomiendo de @nntaleb, muy en línea ( Principios 1, 3 y 10): https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   La fraternidad no tanto como un elemento de una terna sino como una escala necesaria en la organización política. Uno de los errores sería asumir q las políticas son “libres de escala”. Permalink 2:43 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@alxpr1c3 same as Nassim’s “it’s ok to confuse a stone for a bear; not a bear for a stone.” https://twitter.com/KVdP_vliegt/status/1145058876326383617   Permalink 1:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@digvijoy_c https://news.bitcoin.com/why-bitcoiners-are-turning-to-unschooling-for-decentralized-education/   people who get localism and decentralization just seek it everywhere . #homeschool Permalink 7:45 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@JamesMarsh79 Modern Science Could Hit Roundup Maker Monsanto Where It Hurts – Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-28/modern-science-could-hit-roundup-maker-monsanto-where-it-hurts   Permalink 5:38 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Only 1% of people in desk professions understand their subject matter. But 99% of prostitutes understand prostitution. #RWRI 11 (#ExpertProblem) Permalink 2:03 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@KVdP_vliegt On my way back home from #RWRI reading @rorysutherland great book Alchemy and just read below quote. It re-iterates @nntaleb point that it is always rational to be paranoic. pic.twitter.com/DQYvhuTVVL Permalink 12:58 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin I wanna thank all the people I met at #RWRI: @nntaleb for making it happen. @Mehdi_IR_DC & @chasechandler for their time. Special thanks to @trishankkarthik for always challenging/embarrassing me and to @famadeo for saving me face All others on and off twitter that I forgot. Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Philology du jour (more): Yalla! in Lebanese (let’s go!, come!) comes from Έλα! Permalink 9:48 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 14 That funding causes innovation. False. Innovation brings funding. Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@JackConnorWoo Still buzzing from #RWRI. Can’t describe in words how intellectually satisfying this course is, nor how good it feels to be around such smart people like @normonics @NiloufarKhavari @diomavro and of course the incredible @nntaleb. But I’m going to try, blog post (coming soon). Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The Lebanese Tshbi7 (shabba7) تشبيح comes from the Canaanite/Phoenician שבח, to praise, glorify (teshba7to moryo in Syriac= Praise the Lord). Its current meaning is “produce hot air” or “pontification with extreme exaggeration”. Permalink 6:03 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@amconmag “At the end of the Cold War, we were the lone superpower. Who forfeited our preeminence? Who bled us of 7,000 U.S. lives and $6 trillion in endless wars? Who got us into this Cold War II? Was all this the doing of those damnable isolationists again?” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/memo-to-trump-trade-bolton-for-tulsi/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@mdvex Corporatism is not capitalism. The true cost hasn’t been paid yet. Corporatism is politically postponed bankruptcy. Permalink 2:19 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@caitoz The Forever War Is So Normalized That Opposing It Is “Isolationism” “Under our current Orwellian doublespeak paradigm where forever war is the new normal, the opposite of war is no longer peace, but isolationism.” #war #peace #TulsiGabbard https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/the-forever-war-is-so-normalized-that-opposing-it-is-isolationism-8b4062aed18b   Permalink 6:33 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@YoungSandboxer Unbelievable week #RWRI. Couldn’t recommend more Met intellektual hero of many years @nntaleb, as well as @trishankkarthik & others passionate about complexity + risk So much new knowledge—but the funny thing is, I am even more curious about this stuff than before the class! Permalink 4:12 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik And now, organically-developed heuristics from #RWRI attendees Let’s look at some old ones: “The world is more fat-tailed than you think.” Permalink 1:09 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@diomavro @nntaleb @trishankkarthik, say we should be concave to passwords. And hackers can’t take riskless pictures. #RWRI. pic.twitter.com/FqK93jfjot Permalink 12:38 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lunch #RWRI pic.twitter.com/oImidN1PCs Permalink 9:59 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin “If you wanna start Data Science from scratch, start with Information Theory.” -Nassim Taleb @nntaleb #rwri #datascience Permalink 9:08 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Machine learning pic.twitter.com/I70lrsBRnM Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Aerospace pic.twitter.com/tokAvk3lal Permalink 6:31 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@diomavro @trishankkarthik trying to convince us that his bald head is more elegant than Russels axioms. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/dUvEuuCc53 Permalink 11:10 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik “A probability distribution cannot tell you if the realization belongs to it.” Permalink 9:24 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb tawking about how the Masquerade problem (you can reject but not prove something is a Gaussian) is related to Gödelian self-reference… #RWRI Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@Jaffer22915438 I wrote a blog post on the plane based on a question Nassim asked me at #RWRI . I will proof tomorrow snd post. Topic? Facebook fraud. Stay tuned Permalink 12:48 PM – 26 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Rule 110 (by @stephen_wolfram) discussed by @financequant #RWRI pic.twitter.com/PfU4QatfPV Permalink 8:41 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@diomavro Raphael interrupting @normonics, and @nntaleb trolling him #RWRI pic.twitter.com/QlxYgorjq5 Permalink 7:26 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Furthermore, such a program should also compensate those who did not borrow. And charge the universities and real estate developers for the costs of the bailout. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1143585114968010752   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@paulanawfal Merely two days have passed and I have already learned so much. Let’s see what the next three days shall hold @nntaleb #rwri_11 pic.twitter.com/QEokhcFD0T Permalink 6:01 PM – 25 Jun 2019

@sergesapiens 4m post #RWRI10. If you accept @nntaleb maths anchored in the real world, put your skin in the #RWRI game! As much as you think you’ve got it, you‘ll learn some more and you’ll root yourself deeper in the moat with immediate benefits. Permalink 4:14 AM – 25 Jun 2019

@phl43 In 2008, Science published a paper which found that conservatives had a stronger physiological response to threat (which has since been cited more than 500 times), then more recently desk-rejected a failed replication with a sample size 4 times as large https://slate.com/technology/2019/06/science-replication-conservatives-liberals-reacting-to-threats.amp   Permalink 1:34 PM – 24 Jun 2019

@PaulSkallas I remember when I attended. You leave drained. Beat up. The benefits come later. Parts of it stick with you. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1143190040153153537   Permalink 1:29 PM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lunch pic.twitter.com/tVG0ximuBz Permalink 10:01 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI in new location, RWRI-11 pic.twitter.com/whI5DOpZxJ Permalink 9:11 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Hawks are low-intellect, low-experience, low-skills people; if laid off, unusable in real-life, not even to wash you car. The absence of the #skininthegame filtering degrades decision-making. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1143011525684322305   Permalink 2:55 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb So, far, thanks to twitter, the definition is improving. pic.twitter.com/yfK6QKuoaY Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, please tear apart my definition of verbalism. pic.twitter.com/zvDhPcW78X Permalink 7:40 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb FOR DISCUSSION, some definitions: Xenophobia ⧣ racism, even if it correlates. Xenophobia has gradations from indirect (homophilia/love for your family) to direct (state borders). Racism=considering that some races have, genetically, INFERIOR intellectual or moral attributes. Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: Skin in the Game is not, as Nudgeboy Thaler @R_Thaler & that picklebrain @CFCamerer say, an incentive that makes you perform better. It is, simply, a filter that operates on the collective. https://twitter.com/ArthurB/status/1142719660812591104   Permalink 3:17 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@maxmarotti Important discovery at Amioun #Lebanon by LEB-ITA archeological team coordinated by Universita’ Udine @uniud & funded by @ItalyMFA . Amioun now proven an inhabited city since early bronze age , 3300 BC . @nntaleb @ItalyinLebanon pic.twitter.com/C5RQukAbXv Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@LieraMarco The dignity of a Mediterranean man selling his crops in Southern Italy. For centuries these people have taken care of themselves regardless of economic “growth” 1/2 ⁦@nntaleb⁩ pic.twitter.com/YgXP5O2LQc Permalink 3:56 PM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb An example of retrospective bigoteering: flowing today’s standards backward in time, and not realizing it. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1142431943352623104   Permalink 9:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@Neanderthoughts Yes, making explicit the criteria for exposing hidden assumptions in “verbalism” is essential for minimizing political insanity. Especially now with inflammatory social media. Permalink 7:36 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For some obscure reason Italian archeologists are interested in Amioun my ancestral village! Progetto Archeologico Libano Settentrionale (PALiS/ NoLeP) https://youtu.be/DecPfJbzWE4   via @YouTube Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto is here! Very heavy, you can use for exercise. pic.twitter.com/8kvZbUaMYI Permalink 5:56 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Nobody understand what “racism” & “xenophobia” mean. Everything is SCALE dependent. Arab tribes slaughter groups > (say) 5, welcome groups <5 with yuuge hospitality. Get rid of verbalism in Principia (next book). Avoid Pol Sci/Journo BS. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uAIzMDmJ7R”>  pic.twitter.com/uAIzMDmJ7R Permalink 5:47 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@diomavro Alright its takeoff time! Going to NY to attend #RWRI for 5 days! Excited to meet @nntaleb in person. Talebs books helped me embrace my Mediterranean attitude and put me back on the Orthodox trail. Hopefully will also get to meet some of the crew I’ve been stalking. Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) From experiene, I can’t find any (nonweight bearing) exercise that makes you go all out and raises the heart rate as much as running uphill (on a mild hill). And it is exhilarating. Permalink 5:08 PM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb TOPIC FOR DISCUSSION: Run a mile in mildly hilly terrain at least once a week, as fast as you can. Make sure you run completely out of breath on the local top of the hill. Do not run an inch more. Never slowly. Discuss. @GuruAnaerobic @VergilDen Permalink 5:01 PM – 21 Jun 2019

@Wayland_J_Blue @nntaleb you preach statistics in Homeric language. You helped me to understand that what the ancients lacked in sophistry, they had in wisdom 77 fold Permalink 10:40 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@willchamberlain Bush administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Iraq War Obama administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Libyan intervention And they have the chutzpah to critique Trump for CALLING OFF an Iran strike? Lunatics Permalink 7:06 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People with skin in the game are fundamentally localist. Empty suits in DC are not. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Some clarity: DEFENSE is when you defend your country at, or near, your borders. Not when you fight people several time zones away. Find another name for this “DEFENSE” spending. Permalink 3:04 PM – 20 Jun 2019

@antemachina “La modélisation ne peut pas être illimitée, car quelle que soit la vitesse et l’architecture de traitement de données d’un ordinateur, l’augmentation des dimensions à paramétrer excède assez vite toute possibilité de calcul.” Sur l’IA. Personne ne va retweeter ce message. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I will the local Orthodox priest… https://twitter.com/vonkronstadt/status/1141772135158992896   Permalink 11:29 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Social scientists use correlation not knowing what it means. Then they say they are “empirical”. pic.twitter.com/eKYodnjxxq Permalink 11:24 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb All psychology is effectively useless. A correlation of .35, even when not circular, reduces uncertainty by 0 adjusting the noise & error propagation. https://twitter.com/meistrephilipos/status/1141541837339090944   Permalink 11:13 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists are spreading a post “debunking my empirical claims” saying “but there is correlation”. They aren’t smart enough to get my claim that data has “correlation”. But It’s meaningless, circular, noisy, nonadditive & under nonlinearitiees, fails. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 11:07 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@yaneerbaryam How can we prevent ethnic violence? Instead of forcing people to move so that they are mixed or separated, introducing well-defined boundaries that allow for more local autonomy can enable peaceful coexistence. #WorldRefugeeDay https://necsi.edu/solving-ethnic-violence   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/noIZtUHvtJ”>  pic.twitter.com/noIZtUHvtJ Permalink 9:33 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@manukankani One of the best explanation on socialism and capitalism in one minute by @naval cc: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/LvFd5s3I1z Permalink 1:14 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@Mangan150 Strange how following mainstream health advice like eating plant-based, using seed oils, avoiding the sun, and taking a statin will turn you into a shell of a human being. Can that be a coincidence? Permalink 6:54 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “Never argue with people in private (you will not convince them); argue in public to convince others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 3:39 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Seed oil is not #Lindy. As with transfats idiots are still using it as “healthy alternative”, particularly in France. Even in Belgium they use it as replacement for tallow. Same mistake twice! https://twitter.com/blakeburris/status/1141404419231113216   Permalink 3:36 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@drjasonfung An Anti-Aging Pill? Think Twice https://nyti.ms/2FkqSq5   Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The best training you can offer yourself is detecting circularity. It teaches you to think not just forward in 2nd, 3rd steps, but backward in minus 1st, 2nd steps, etc. Modernity is full of circularities (education, citation rings, journalism, classifications, IQ, psychology…) Permalink 6:00 AM – 19 Jun 2019

@EHSANI22 This book catalogues how a significant part of spoken Arabic in #Aleppo #Syria is originally Assyrian / Aramaic This also covers many the small towns and villages including Afrin , Manbej, Shougour and Ma’ara (All are Assyrian / Aramaic words) The total list is astounding pic.twitter.com/AEbdafgq83 Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I am honored to be on the U.S. watchlist. https://twitter.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1140980698486120448   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Most frequent comments when I run into someone: 1) Are you “working on” another book? No, it’s all one book. All Merged. And it’s not work 2) You look thinner in person than in pictures 3) You seem much, much less of an asshole than in your Twitter feed Permalink 5:03 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists there are frauds. This is the type of work they do. They just show the resulting plot line. pic.twitter.com/3jqftuP116 Permalink 4:59 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Weeks away from shipping Incerto (5-volume Hardcover Box Set) https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_d1mcDbXQGB9AF   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb FORECASTING SHOULD BE IN REAL LIFE Foreword for the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition. We are now working on the M5 competition which should be the mother of all forecasting checks! pic.twitter.com/IGdS7U2iy3 Permalink 3:36 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb In other words, if you took 2 IQ tests there will be a variation. Such variation is BIGGER than the one you’d get from the effect ! (Not counting the circularity that good test takers tend to get degrees so they get some jobs without necessarily performing better). FRAUD Permalink 3:12 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The article is a (naive) fraud. They show a line, not a cloud of points so we don’t see the variance & the gaming. But these idiots (psychologists) proved the following: if in spite of the circularity, the diff betw 55 and 130 is so small for the variance, IQ is just hot air. https://twitter.com/ROBERTO_COLOM/status/1140707195161645056   Permalink 1:52 PM – 17 Jun 2019

@SeyyAli_Mirzaei #Proud to speak @googlecloud on the importance of being #AntiFragile (@nntaleb) learning/growing from chaos at @gcdcislamabad @TensorFlow @googledevs. Thrilled & inspired to see more #women in #Tech space in #Pakistan. T-shirt reads: “Less gender roles, more paratha rolls!” https://twitter.com/CynthiaDRitchie/status/1140671573277495296   Permalink 10:46 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@gbponz Rep. Tulsi Gabbard opposes impeachment and dislikes identity politics. And she’s running for president, writes @mtracey https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-hawaii-democrats-surprising-views-11560714036?shareToken=ste65d586625d3416b994206c9783a1b9c   di @WSJ @nntaleb Permalink 6:19 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Incerto so far is 2000 pages long. It is the summary. I doubt there is a shorter summary of the Incerto than the Incerto. Permalink 4:27 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb There’s no such thing as “scientific evidence showing safety” but somethg called “failure to reject” at some significance which was NEVER done for GMOs as Monsanto spent more energy smearing critics than testing. Journalists are carriers of charlatanism. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lhymv1sQdC”>  pic.twitter.com/lhymv1sQdC Permalink 2:22 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This crap was promoted into my feed. If a book can be summarized, it’s not a book but a magazine article; don’t read it and don’t read its summary. https://twitter.com/blinkist/status/1024238241585790976   Permalink 11:42 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Syrians in Lebanon: no advice without skin in the game. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1123192807429169154   Permalink 5:15 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@LieraMarco You don’t need a psychologist to save a guy who wants to commit sucide. A truck driver is much more effective. @nntaleb https://milano.corriere.it/19_giugno_16/gabriel-camionista-che-ha-salvato-ragazzo-cavalcavia-non-sono-eroe-0fd25fe0-8fb3-11e9-88d7-b66be71f5fe3.shtml   Permalink 5:12 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@spectatorindex Oldest cities in the world. 1. Jericho, Palestinian Ter. 2. Byblos, Lebanon 3. Aleppo, Syria 4. Damascus, Syria 5. Susa, Iran 6. Faiyum, Egypt 7. Sidon, Lebanon 8. Plovdiv, Bulgaria 9. Gaziantep, Turkey 10. Beirut, Lebanon (Telegraph) Longer list: https://www.instagram.com/p/ByxJ5aQD7CR/   Permalink 3:56 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese government is always accused of racism by first order bigoteers (with no SITG) whenever they discuss the case of Syrian refugees (close to 20–30% of the population), then put on the defensive having to explain “they are not racist, but”. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8?postPublishedType=repub   Permalink 2:49 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Large governments are weapon merchants: UK, US, France, Russia. Foreign “policy” is dictated by weapons manufacturers. The press (@tomfriedman , @BretStephensNYT) are just marketing agents, something effective under the name “democracy”. Which is why we need @TulsiGabbard Permalink 2:07 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@datenverstehen @nntaleb apparently localism is on the rise in UK Permalink 8:01 AM – 15 Jun 2019