Tag Archives: Pinker

Bill Gates, Psychologists, Academics, Baalbeck, Revenge, Amsterdam , Quillette, Pinker, Napoleon, Kashkari, Bayer | Twitter

@nntaleb We should move the bulk of civil servants to Alaska. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1139349756017143808   Permalink 6:55 AM – 15 Jun 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/E9SW6hmxy8 Permalink 3:10 PM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Thanks to @NonMeek, an explanation of the point. pic.twitter.com/03aWOhj6kO Permalink 1:56 PM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I managed to fool 6000 people yesterday. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1139184456856678400   Permalink 8:05 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Even more think that psychology is scientific. https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1139545553992183809   Permalink 8:03 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) Elsewhere, I discuss the same point within ergodicity. Worrying about homicide & terrorism is extremely rational. Same with GMOs. Permalink 6:45 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Beware naive empiricism funded by @BillGates. An insult to risk and probability. pic.twitter.com/qXXIV28rUE Permalink 6:29 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Arabs took locals as slaves. They use same word for “slave” ( عبد) and “subsaharan African” … even in classical poetry! (هجاء كافور) The pseudoliberal propaganda works well… for now. pic.twitter.com/xTJ8KbYdqH Permalink 5:04 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb (Except it misses that Ethiopia uses Amharic not Arabic) Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This is a better map showing the severity of Arab colonialism in Africa. pic.twitter.com/nbVKcraPZj Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb When you look at the national languages of Africa as colonialism, you can see that it is split into French, English, and Arabic colonialism (plus residues s.a. Portuguese). For the “liberals” in academia, IYIs, & BS vendors a la Edward Said, Arabic isn’t colonialism. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1139486646049656835   Permalink 4:04 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The price of fighting with more than one state without clear offers to settle: all your enemies become natural friends. The coalition: Russia-China-Iran so far created by these imbecile saber-rattling neo-cons Next, naturally, Turkey Even Israel is flirting with China. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1139481466847600640   Permalink 3:41 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb So far 100% of the psychologists I have examined appear to be clueless about the meaning of something as elementary as correlation. It is all helped by that idiot @primalpoly supplying papers with “evidence” for the noncircularity of “IQ”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1136526793811402752   Permalink 3:32 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Figured out why 99% of academics have to be misfit, 3rd rate intellectually, by construction. You observe, say in probabilistic matters, yuuge inconsistencies. When you point it out to them, they require a “reference”. OK: write the fucking “reference”. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 3:07 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Yuuge vindication for Ole Peters @ole_b_peters and people who doubt psycholophasters of “utility”. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1139155625961820162   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JuGII9xMRF”>  pic.twitter.com/JuGII9xMRF Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:03 AM – 13 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, a question. Do verbal surveys (in the form of multiple answers) work? Permalink 7:55 AM – 13 Jun 2019

@nntaleb He forgot French: “clebs” or “clébard” https://twitter.com/HebreWords/status/1138784220439109632   Permalink 5:46 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@lizzie363 THIS IS WHY CASH IS SO IMPORTANT!! Economists singing the praises of a cashless society are actually arguing for authoritarianism!!! https://twitter.com/jchristychoi/status/1138769437723570176   Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb My video explaining why @BillGates should do more thinking, less naive empiricism a la Pinker. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=13&v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 4:15 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “Another marker for charlatans: they don’t voice opinions that can get them in trouble.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:59 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Here is the approach showing the relatedness of Levantines with Persans and Anatolians vs Arabs. Four Population Tests. pic.twitter.com/FmrN30BInU Permalink 3:18 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb You cannot shill without being eventually discovered. Thank you Monsanto papers & the U.S. legal system. pic.twitter.com/oSrhclNhuA Permalink 3:15 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb David Ropeik @dropeik is one of the Monsanto shills who went after our precautionary principle. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1138749281269981184   Permalink 3:13 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 4) The Bill Gates who follows his instinct & grandmother’s paranoia is smarter that the @BillGates who tries to use statistics a la Pinker and reads stuff written by psycholophasters. https://twitter.com/EllJohnny1/status/1138541410980978689   Permalink 1:23 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 3) Deeper discussions with proofs here. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 1:04 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb My solution pic.twitter.com/CeRcgdvnsx Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) Never compare risks with fat tails to regular ones. The law of large numbers works differently. Plus ergodicity. We survived hundreds of millions of risks thanks to paranoia. We don’t need to be lectured by pseudostatisticians. @BillGates pic.twitter.com/4pQPQcGYjM Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 1) Actually people’s fears line up to tail risks much better than naive empiricists. This is monstrously ignorant a la Steven Pinker. https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/1138520780042465280   Permalink 12:49 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (Air travel recreation). Acrtually the bound is tighter. Prove it is >= 27. pic.twitter.com/jl2E5spyXY Permalink 11:53 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@black_swan_man Part 3 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #riskmitigation #longgamma #squeezer pic.twitter.com/7EkUSCtVjY Permalink 11:21 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lebanese are much more related to Iranians than to “Arabs”. Some people may hate the news. https://twitter.com/officialarti/status/1138445121119277057   Permalink 6:59 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:08 PM – 10 Jun 2019

@ronportnoir @nntaleb This Chomsky quote about cockroaches reminds me of what you say about psychiatry. https://twitter.com/chomsky_quotes/status/1138200548862119937   Permalink 2:50 PM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Turks and Greeks should be made aware of this. And the Lebanese, of course. [Note this is by country borders: Southern Italy and Northern Iran should be blue] https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/1138096007059632128   Permalink 9:34 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The monks may be confused linguistically, but the views are breathtaking… Note the monastery (red roof top) on the right, hugging the slope, impenetrable, out of the reach of the Ottomans & other invaders. pic.twitter.com/4RoDhSRVGI Permalink 4:53 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Surprise: entirely home farmed mushrooms, mozzarella, vegetables for a pizza joint in Byblos & Amioun. (“Una Pizza”) pic.twitter.com/sL9PecoX6P Permalink 4:43 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb “Chemphobia”: while the term was coined by industry shills, is entirely rational. Scientifically so. Some chemicals are safe but we never really know before the #LindyEffect takes its course. Elementary statistical significance. Very elementary. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1138041466935304194   Permalink 4:25 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “If someone is making an effort to ignore you, he is not ignoring you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:11 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This thread a summary of PRINCIPIA POLITICA. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1137742800487927809   Permalink 12:03 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2- Added section on xenophobia/discrimimation at some scale, not others. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nyBAGgWVje”>  pic.twitter.com/nyBAGgWVje Permalink 11:06 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb IF levels of lipids are ~ in 2 pop., but not *something else*, AND there are yuuge CVD differences, then the something else is necessary for CVD, perhaps in conjunction with lipids, which requires a joint probability distribution. Precautionarily, avoid that *something else*. Permalink 10:10 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Statistically, by exclusion, we are zooming in on a different story for CVD: it supports the 1-2 meals a day, feast/fasting ancient heuristics & traditions. Minimize exposure time to insulin, especially under Med genetics. @Mangan150 https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1137731523661127680   Permalink 9:54 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@Juan_indaliano @nntaleb this genetic research on southern Spaniards seems to support your “languages travel; genes less so” assertion. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41580-9   Permalink 11:18 AM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb “Linear” correlation is a misnomer: it does indeed measure a linear relationship between variables, BUT it is nonlinear. https://twitter.com/VirendrasinghP/status/1137584275153276928   Permalink 10:15 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Answer: .87! See equation 13. pic.twitter.com/iJCJ8lULTj Permalink 10:07 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb SUNDAY QUIZ For a correlation number between X and Y, what is the “half point” correlation between 0 and 1, that is, the correlation for which you have half the uncertainty about X if you observed Y ( or vice-versa) compared to not having observed Y? Permalink 9:50 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) SJL (#SocialJusticeLunatics), grievance studies windbags and other imbeciles may dominate the universities, but… they are underepresented in the jury system. This and the Monsanto destruction should restore our faith in the system. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1137429172333289473   Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 1) In America, we may have universities run by SJL (#SocialJusticeLunatics), we may have bad government, controled by lobbyists, but we have a well functioning legal system. If someone tries to mess w/you and your small business, call a lawyer. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jun/7/ohio-jury-awards-11-million-to-bakery-owners-targe/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork&fbclid=IwAR3OKRmYtC-r3ORzkyiuJWngOu4xTpBcyuI-c0TI7azPf_4l_i3q3hdpjMg   Permalink 11:35 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Yuuuuuge mystery https://twitter.com/CapitalParadox/status/1137398724668338176   Permalink 9:46 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/LouisLebbos/status/1137338419380703232   Permalink 9:28 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Baalbeck contains these gigantic stones, 1650 tons! It dwarfs pretty much anything I’ve seen elsewhere in the ancient world, makes the acropolis look like a Las Vegas version. pic.twitter.com/13JJMyrsnA Permalink 9:27 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb And the road through Mt Lebanon cuts through walls of snow. pic.twitter.com/D8mJJ4AygF Permalink 7:03 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Baalbeck, behind the temple of Dionysos with archeologist @DrWissam and @PZalloua No Graeco-Roman ruin comes close in size. pic.twitter.com/I63lFWi6DU Permalink 5:10 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@DegenRolf Everything that psychologists have told us about the detection of deception may just be a big fat lie. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691619838258   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/bJLyByWUrd”>  pic.twitter.com/bJLyByWUrd Permalink 12:09 PM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, Correction: I granted on twitter the Persian language rights because I can’t transact. Permalink 8:17 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin Honored & Happy to announce that I will attend (as a learner) #RWRI this June 24th on a very generous scholarship by @nntaleb. Thank you Ostedhna! Now back to reading, programming and sharpening my math and probability. @trishank see you in NY! #risk #sitg #math #proba pic.twitter.com/mORMofk9Mw Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The highest honor: a pirated trnslation of Skin in the Game in Persian. https://twitter.com/skininthegameir/status/1136903480768172032   Permalink 7:12 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Convent Mar Antonios Qozachia ܩܘܙܚܝܐ: Boasting the first printing press in the “Arab world” in 1610, except that the press was in… Aramaic (Syriac)! Arabists are imbeciles. (Note the red color in the books) pic.twitter.com/6yycxYzQUD Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Ergodicity rephrased by @naval https://twitter.com/naval/status/1002103908947263488   Permalink 11:19 PM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb footnote: The Latin alphabet is ALSO Phoenician. Permalink 10:37 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, my PRINCIPIA POLITICA for comments https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wS89f0EtZi”>  pic.twitter.com/wS89f0EtZi Permalink 6:56 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@rorysutherland A lot of this is debatable. Unless you are a journalist – ie one of the hand-loom operators of the 21st Century – in which case it chimes with your own dismal experience. Instrumental inequality has never been lower. Take out property and education and everything is cheaper. https://twitter.com/herdmeister/status/1136548869544656896   Permalink 1:39 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For those who celebrate, Happy Eid! Permalink 1:32 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 13 A correlation of 50% reduces uncertainty by 6-13% not more. Meaning psychology is a citation ring/political agenda. pic.twitter.com/D3whiWeM97 Permalink 11:54 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@chemblette https://www.wsj.com/articles/rahm-emanuel-ex-chicago-mayor-is-going-to-wall-street-11559760420   Time to ban rent-seeking? What kind of value can this former politician create for society in his newfound capacity? @nntaleb @FrazerAnderson Permalink 9:46 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Erratum: economist -> social scientist (mainly psychologists) https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1136339451154784256   Permalink 12:08 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For psychologists who are not blind, a correlation of 3/4 is visually much closer to 0 than to 1. That’s the logic of the scaling. My metrics look at the total surface (in the square) divided by the one inside the circle (sort of). pic.twitter.com/MEQ3Pzk1oe Permalink 10:46 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “People tend to whisper when they say the truth and raise their voice when they lie.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:09 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@hugowiz «… it seems to me that people flood their stories with numbers and graphs in the absence of solid or logical arguments.» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #data #risk img. @thefredyjacob pic.twitter.com/uRPY6op6vx Permalink 6:19 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People starting to write Lebanese in Lebanon… pic.twitter.com/YEo7WqOovh Permalink 6:13 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@black_swan_man Part 2 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #crash #robots #CTA #fooledbyrandomness pic.twitter.com/XMcCqqklQ2 Permalink 5:37 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Revenge is a moral obligation. https://twitter.com/RobRastapop/status/1136136216829546496   Permalink 10:18 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb RESCALING CORRELATION to its own informational importance pic.twitter.com/1tuHKCKah3 Permalink 9:13 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@RobRastapop Yes. Funny how most don’t get this. 1. True Revenge is not petty. 2. Revenge is not about justice. It’s about preempting future injustice. Permalink 5:12 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb These are the two ways you should interpret correlation. The third method, entropy based mutual information gives similar results. pic.twitter.com/9C4Ps3uh4h Permalink 11:58 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 12 “Europe” is not a real continent (at best the daughter of a Phoenician king). Its definition is political, now affected by a religious separation. If “Europe” were to be rationally defined, it should start in the Zagros/Caucasus. pic.twitter.com/7atZQ5zupR Permalink 11:45 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Time spent on revenge is never wasted. Permalink 11:00 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People have a hard time with via negativa. But your grandmother gets that you get to truth by removing the crap. https://twitter.com/Gbh89423811/status/1135942686400290816   Permalink 9:16 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Question: What is the difference between my function \phi[\rho,k] and Var[X|Y]? Yuuge differences, as \phi takes into account the fact that E[X|Y]=\rho Y (simplifying for normalized variables) which loses tractability in the tails. Both stories makes psychologists look v. bad. Permalink 9:03 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb TUTORIAL: Where we show what correlation means under VERY standard Gaussian assumptions (breaks down under fat tails). You need a correlation of .87 to reduce half the uncertainty! pic.twitter.com/YZPJlbcWD0 Permalink 10:31 PM – 3 Jun 2019

@NicuMihalache @nntaleb surprise, surprise … https://twitter.com/kaibaumgartner/status/1135575151049879552   Permalink 11:09 AM – 3 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Refined the metric on the way back to Phoenica. We are interested in the range around K. How much does correlation(X,Y) reduce your uncertainty about Y given X? pic.twitter.com/EeKeaqUa00 Permalink 8:50 AM – 3 Jun 2019

@dwnhogendoorn @nntaleb Napoleon eroded SITG Permalink 11:32 PM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Part II to come. Flaneuring in Amsterdam with a notebook and… cannot resist doing probability. pic.twitter.com/w5RCXrS8h9 Permalink 2:59 AM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A correlation of .5 (assuming it is rigorously obtained) carries practically NO information for the tails, cannot explain OUTPERFORMANCE. (Or why psychologists are toooooooootal idiots). #Scienceishard pic.twitter.com/YHhWnjmvCy Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Thank you twitter Macedonian origin FOR THE PLANT. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1134827953869807616   Permalink 7:51 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I mildly disagree with my two erudite friends @turlevnon & Hareth. Many, many Italian and French terms came via 1) Sabir (the maritime Lingua Franca), and 2) Turkish. https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/1134819777682317322   Permalink 7:17 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@nntaleb SATURDAY PHILOLOGICAL SPECULATIONS Parsley in Greek Μαϊντανός, N.Macedonian “magdonos”, Levantine ba2dunés, Kurdish “bekdenus”, Turkish “maydanoz”. Yet it is most prevalent in the N. Levant (taboulé). What is, if any, the Semitic correspondent? Is it Macedonian in origin? Permalink 7:12 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “The first one who uses “but”, has lost the argument.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:50 PM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb What the fuck does causality have to do with this? Permalink 9:34 PM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Yes, is Quillete about freedom of speech or support for a certain type of “science”. https://twitter.com/horacejuvenal/status/1134460991196917770   Permalink 7:34 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb 8 (Final)- Napoleon Carrying a 4lb 870-page UK hardcover book across airports and cafés made me enjoy it better. Something @rorysutherland can understand. You don’t know what you really like until you actually try it. Was not expecting to prefer the heaviest possible version! pic.twitter.com/rp9U8DRMLn Permalink 7:17 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Here is my “why correlation is not usually correlation”, another problem that the one in the original post. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=53s   Permalink 6:56 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Suspicion @Quillette/@clairlemon aren’t abt freedom of speech but cover for agenda: I’m AGAINST muzzling @NoahCarl90 w/program abt “cognitive differences” for “groups” (euphemism for racism) BUT find him a charlatan They’re upset about “charlatan” NOT happy w/support for freedom https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1134020269100666880   Permalink 6:41 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb The verbal explanation. https://youtu.be/p76bQlnVuBM   Permalink 6:23 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Part 2 of the paper; why entropy methods are vastly more robust. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1113566110367002624   Permalink 6:15 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Nothing to do with “causation”, I will block anyone who brings down the subject to that mantra. Correlation does not imply correlation. Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Why almost all social scientists are clueeeeeeless about what correlation means. pic.twitter.com/zp7rLoVP1e Permalink 5:59 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb The Greco-Phoenician research fraternity GPRF: with @spyrosmakrid and Cypriots at the Univ. of Nicosia. pic.twitter.com/ZDs6dDGY02 Permalink 5:32 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Neurobiology is the most effective of pseudosciences because something derived in a lab fools you into thinking it’s hard science. Luckily we can tell it as it has the statistical rigor of S. Pinker crossed with the Marx Brothers. https://twitter.com/emanuelderman/status/1134428813759320064   Permalink 5:09 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb After requests to have predictions of “sign” for random variables, settled w/@spyrosmakrid for tracking of buy/sell P/L (one in real life does not buy or sell “signs” but buys something at a price, and sells at another price). The compromise should please @mikeharrisNY Permalink 2:29 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Unless you ignore them, of course. Permalink 1:49 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb You’ll end up resembling your worst enemies. Permalink 1:46 AM – 31 May 2019

@mdvex None of the successful people I know take notes. https://twitter.com/sacca/status/1134128910004772869   Permalink 11:19 PM – 30 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you want to teach someone a real skill, teach him how to fail. He will never learn it in school.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:48 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb The gym at the Republic of Amioun in Northern Phoenicia. The church in the bakground (circle) is where 8 of my ancestors have been resting for 2 centuries. The rest are in another church to the right. pic.twitter.com/0osYEwzsU9 Permalink 1:51 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb Fixed a few typos pic.twitter.com/xHHkQDg9L7 Permalink 1:21 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 7-Napoleon He had a strong Italian accent but then almost every provincial French person had an accent. People in Burgundy rolled the “r”s. His biographers are using today’s norms retrospectively. 8- Napoleon III was not related to him, DNA shows. Someone cheated. Permalink 8:33 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb My nightmare, SCIENTISM promoted by @clairlemon et al: +Genes determine something <=> We know which genes +Traits are heritable <=> performance is heritable +Simple domains (running) = high dim complex domains +Mean = extrema (no minority rule) pic.twitter.com/YWDsLMTL6S Permalink 5:57 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 6- Napoleon His central flaw: viewed the world (including socioeconomic life) as a top-down streamlined military structure. Could not grasp selforganization and complexity. Permalink 4:29 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 5- Napoleon Post Russia, he was no longer Napoleon. “Napoleon did something completely out of character. He vacillated”. Permalink 3:29 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb I stand against the termination of @NoahCarl90, for a simple reason: he is a charlatan. + He is a technically unsophisticated race obsessed “researcher” with a SINISTER agenda, + His research is so unrigorous it needs to be published so people can LAUGH at his project. https://twitter.com/NoahCarl90/status/1128396149004611588   Permalink 1:54 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb Discussion with Spyros: why for fat tailed variables we need to use Mean Deviation NOT standard deviation, even when variance is finite. pic.twitter.com/JE8gsfnUZs Permalink 1:24 AM – 30 May 2019

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #crash #Sikh #Nihang #Gatka pic.twitter.com/lZ0rh105lZ Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb My experience of IQ psychologists is that they are very dumb to do science & probability, yet never realize how dumb they are because they only talk to dumb psychologists. Yet they want to be arbiters of intelligence & PUT DOWN entire races & groups. Like this @GarettJones https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1131297892629659649   Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 May 2019

@NonMeek “There is no significant #correlation (or any robust statistical association) between #IQ and hard measures such as wealth.” -@nntaleb …and here’s the comic strip to accompany that pic.twitter.com/ZV8D7vNrtM Permalink 10:46 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb General Scholarships are open for RWRI 11 June 24-28 (Real World Risk Institute) http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 6:18 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb Mystery? pic.twitter.com/XG2Mz7sIiK Permalink 3:40 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, please help w/design for the @spyrosmakrid M5 competition. 1)Choise of variables 2) (more important) WHAT to forecast. X after 5 days, 1m, Min(X), Max(X), Max(X-Y). Important for decisions to get Min & uncertainty since “never cross a river 4 feet deep on average” pic.twitter.com/dP5shVLc5D Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb 4- Napoleon Although the author tries to avoid spoilers when progressing through the ~45 battles, there is no suspense in the book: outcome is known. If something in Paris is named after it, (Jena, Austerlitz, Rivoli, Wagram, Castiglione), Napoleon won. Otherwise, he lost. Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Happiness is not defined by how people say they “feel” but by what they do. (Revelation of preferences) #Skininthegame @rorysutherland https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1132288942034833409   Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink; Cypriot squid ink. pic.twitter.com/nMvCx5gRz7 Permalink 11:41 AM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Taleb = φιλόλογος (Philologos ) pic.twitter.com/hvpJE43tCo Permalink 7:19 AM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Σήμερα είμαι στη Λευκωσία με τον @spyrosmakrid για να συζητήσουμε τον διαγωνισμό M5 Competition. Permalink 9:19 PM – 27 May 2019

@VergilDen “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average” The Black Swan, Taleb https://twitter.com/xkcdcomic/status/1133052055763820545   Permalink 9:56 AM – 27 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “Sometimes people ask you a question with their eyes begging you to not tell them the truth.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- My instinct tells me that most of these “correlations” used by psychologists become very weak associations if one uses more rigorous entropy methods. Permalink 6:07 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb One sub-explanation. The other is nonlinearity: nonlinear correlation means .5 is almost 0. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1110279033890267136   Permalink 6:02 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb 1- Once you look into these correlations, you see that below .8 they can be meaningless. https://twitter.com/AmirSariaslan/status/1132694130553950211   Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 May 2019

@NilsPetersen80 @nntaleb inspiring speech. Trials and error are “our” successstory. Could listen for hours. https://twitter.com/EL2019Antwerp/status/1132952193580052480   Permalink 3:38 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb Do not conflate nationalism and decentralization. Both voters and politicians can be fooled by labels. Permalink 2:31 AM – 27 May 2019

@dwnhogendoorn There’s a clear self-affinity between autophagy and a regenerative urban waste disposal. Looking for good, category crossing resources on autophagy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autophagy   Permalink 12:38 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb Borges’ post in @bill_easterly https://twitter.com/bill_easterly/status/1132383150724661248   Permalink 6:30 AM – 26 May 2019

@nntaleb Words and languages are created by people with #Skininthegame: farmers, hunters, traders, prostitutes, carpenters, dancers, & builders. Not by linguists, academics, scribes, bureaucrats, librarians, grammarians, & other acroparasites. [Inspired by Borges & @bill_easterly] Permalink 11:48 PM – 25 May 2019

@Mangan150 Some people objected when I said that the establishment doesn’t want you healthy, saying that it’s not a conspiracy – though I didn’t say it was. But the actions of Facebook in deleting a low-carb group, likely at the behest of Big Food, make it look like – what? Permalink 5:05 PM – 25 May 2019

@PaulSkallas “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/pkerin/status/1132356621169057792   Permalink 2:16 PM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Although, after a wet lunch pic.twitter.com/xXIdLKG812 Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Mykonos: a destination for people who have way too many trees at home AND want to go to the beach. Permalink 5:19 AM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Mykonos: reminiscent of the Lebanese deforestation of 1917 during the Ottoman blocade. pic.twitter.com/jdAHSZ410L Permalink 1:43 AM – 25 May 2019

@semacks “It is always suspicious when a person’s ideas line up perfectly to a specified party….” I only wish this didn’t describe 90%+ of people who comment on public policy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1131674858658639895   Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 May 2019

@dougalpollux https://www.theamericanconservative.com/urbs/traditional-cities-are-more-resilient-than-modern-buildings/   #antifragility Permalink 7:22 AM – 24 May 2019

@nntaleb Closer pic.twitter.com/x2FuTtsJZV Permalink 10:26 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- I do not hide that I am writing a political code. My own. No explanations, no arguments. No attempts at convincing. Take it or leave it. pic.twitter.com/4JJEw9myCX Permalink 2:34 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb 2- People have a hard time shedding their legal system. Napoleon lost; his code stayed, even spread to countries Napoleon never invaded! (Rather, the code of Cambaceres). Lesson: write a tight, coherent code. We are codifying the #PrecautionaryPrinciple Make it indispensable. Permalink 1:42 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb THREAD 1-Christianity couldn’t spread like Islam into Central Asia, Africa. It offered no law for traders. Rome (&Berytus) had the law. So Christianity stayed limited to around the Roman empire. The Savafids could not convert out w/o losing the legal system. So they adapted. Permalink 1:35 PM – 23 May 2019

@BrankoMilan Trump (so far) likes to talk military, but not to use it–which is a major improvement upon W and most likely upon what Hillary would have done. https://twitter.com/m_orenstein/status/1131245499892338690   Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 May 2019

@RalphNader Still waiting. -R https://twitter.com/RalphNader/status/1129456063537926144   Permalink 7:50 AM – 23 May 2019

@TMFStoffel It’s funny how once people have skin in the game, virtue signaling ceases and true colors shine through. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/1131564431257886727   Permalink 7:45 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb Northern Phoenicia: the best gym in the world in my ancestral village. Convinced the owners to try teaching ⁦@SS_strength⁩ ⁦cc:@CoachRippetoe⁩ pic.twitter.com/eoHuw6VezT Permalink 7:32 AM – 23 May 2019

@OndPr Toute la campagne des européennes du Rassemblement National peut se resumer à un seul mot: Localisme. Au RN on s’inspire des idées de @nntaleb. https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1131283712203792384   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb We need to put an upper limit for RWRI returns. https://twitter.com/jaffer22915438/status/1131525923277295616   Permalink 5:00 AM – 23 May 2019

@TalebWisdom Thursday Wisdom: “If someone’s insults’ bother you; it is evidence that you respect him.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb It doesn’t mean banning free speech, but banning nonpublic contact with elected officials and government decision makers. All discussions between paid advocates and goverment pple should be made public AND easily accessible. Permalink 6:14 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb Unpaid advocacy is NOT professional lobbying. Permalink 5:46 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)? Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Permalink 5:39 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)? Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Permalink 5:39 PM – 22 May 2019

@apgox No. As @nntaleb wrote, “When I don’t have skin in the game, I am usually dumb”. For example, if I took out contents insurance, I’d probably be less vigilant to secure my property. If I took out robot replacement insurance, I’d probably be more prone to being replaced by robots. Permalink 4:34 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb Liver is #Lindy. Not so much muscle meat. https://twitter.com/LIHF_Living/status/1131069023385464837   Permalink 10:53 PM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- Napoleon + Ate his meals in 10 min. He was also rushed in other activities where it is not recommended + Liked to “punish infrequently, but severely”. Reminds me to deliver & continue my ~4Y long dumping on that despicable @Noahpinion http://fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 9:58 PM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, if anyone is interested to help with a fundraiser for @TulsiGabbard next July in Westchester county, NY, please notify here. We need to help put her on the map before the arms merchants get to her. Permalink 9:26 AM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb Mongolian here is written in Syriac https://twitter.com/incunabula/status/1130408407406587904   Permalink 3:21 PM – 20 May 2019

@nntaleb “No rumor is true until officially denied.” https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1130526242531364864   Permalink 10:37 AM – 20 May 2019

@ole_b_peters Expected utility theory tries to compute the future psychological consequences of the actions of your clones in parallel universes. Ergodicity economics tries to compute the future physical consequences of the actions of your younger self. What’s more relevant to you? Permalink 4:38 AM – 20 May 2019

@nntaleb Translation: a famous “businessman” from Naples offered French president Macron to “solve a problem” (or remove a “pebble from his shoes”), an offer Macron could not refuse. https://twitter.com/bruno_amable/status/1129852051494789120   Permalink 3:58 PM – 19 May 2019

@Morunoyo Rise Above Mount Lebanon 1/5 pic.twitter.com/4jAdKYznhg Permalink 8:51 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb Nationalism, the nation state, and Arabism destroyed the best, most sophisticated, most learned, most open-minded city in the Mediterranean. #localism #DeMediterraniation https://twitter.com/CCavafy/status/1130087688680411138   Permalink 5:32 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 11 “Arab” science wasn’t Arab, but Persian (Avicenna, Biruni, AlKhawarizmi (Algorithm), etc.), Syriac, Chaldean, from long traditions that preceded the Arab invasion. They just wrote in Arabic; Newton wrote in Latin but isn’t called “Italian”. Permalink 4:52 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb Obama and Geithner gave banks the largest bonuses in 2010. Acroparasite Geithner later got a $$$ job with the industry. This has nothing to do with capitalism. I want Geithner in JAIL. https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1129752853315227652   Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy https://twitter.com/kateantiquity/status/1129484824685813762   Permalink 1:02 PM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb When you sell options, treat the possible as likely. When you buy them, treat the likely as merely possible. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1129787561252139008   Permalink 11:34 AM – 18 May 2019

@rj7050 According to Taleb, ‘means’ of two distributions cannot be compared if one has fatter tails. In my experience of money management, I have not met a single investor who understands that, but money managers understand that and sell crap.@nntaleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb When you hedge, treat the possible as likely. When you speculate, treat the likely as merely possible. Permalink 9:35 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Nice Surprise Incerto now in 41 languages… Just signed the ARMENIAN contract. pic.twitter.com/WtKWUVLaXj Permalink 7:04 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Please mark my words. Neil Kashkari @neelkashkari is a DANGEROUS imbecile. https://twitter.com/wlwatts/status/1129058255207055360   Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Bayer’s Shady PR Firms: FleishmanHillard and Ketchum via @USRightToKnow https://usrtk.org/food-for-thought/bayers-shady-pr-firms-fleishmanhillard-and-ketchum/   Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 May 2019

@BenjaminNorton This propaganda is embarrassingly bad. Neo-McCarthyite hacks are implying anti-war candidate @TulsiGabbard is a Kremlin shill. Their “evidence”? Donations from renowned scholar Stephen F. Cohen and from a US peace activist who doesn’t want war with Russia https://www.thedailybeast.com/tulsi-gabbards-campaign-is-being-boosted-by-russophiles   Permalink 1:09 PM – 17 May 2019

@sahouraxo Why isn’t this bombshell story about #Syria’s #Douma front page news worldwide? Because it destroys the false narrative of the corporate press—the very same media now manufacturing lies for the latest regime change wars planned for #Iran and #Venezuela. https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/confirmed-chemical-weapons-assessment-contradicting-official-syria-narrative-is-authentic-fbcbf7ef281a   Permalink 11:25 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb FRIDAY INTERESTING MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR pic.twitter.com/UJwlnITMaC Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb Bloomberg Interview N N Taleb May 2019 https://youtu.be/4OfnsOT1ys8   via @YouTube Permalink 9:25 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb IMBECILES w/low comprehension abilities. It’s NOT saying entrepreneurs are “braver than troops”, only that in ALL fields risk takers need to be treated w/ respect by nonrisk takers who leech on them. Clearly there are degrees of risk taking. IMBECILES https://twitter.com/lyta_gold/status/1129406176427499520   Permalink 8:26 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb When people call you intelligent it is almost always because they agree with you. Otherwise, they would call you arrogant. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb Just posted a new paper Option Pricing Under Power Laws: A Robust Heuristic https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 7:48 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb The problem of self employment Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb “No probability without ergodicity”. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1129023713641238528   Permalink 7:07 AM – 16 May 2019

@TulsiGabbard Trump promised to get the US out of “stupid wars.” But now he and John Bolton are on the brink of launching us into a very stupid and costly war with Iran. Join me in sending a strong message to President Trump: The US must NOT go to war with Iran. #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com/Q1sHDNwZSy Permalink 6:01 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY FRIDAY:The Mother of all Fat Tails: the log Pareto distribution Prompted by a discussion with @financequant It is not discussed in textbooks/web but easy to rederive. pic.twitter.com/ZyhLpTHCTC Permalink 4:25 AM – 16 May 2019

@normonics The #PrecautionaryPrinciple is necessary to save us from dangerous idiots with “good intentions” https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1065993396395880448   Permalink 4:20 PM – 15 May 2019

Tetlock, Payoffs, Urbanism, Arbitrage, Estonia, IQ, LOCALISM, Assange, Psychology, Christakis, Belgrade, Nate Silver, Pinker, @AOC , Peterson | Twitter

@nntaleb 15 years ago, I went into psychology trying to figure out how humans misunderstand probability. All I figured out is how psychologists don’t understand probability. Permalink 9:39 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Our great ally… https://twitter.com/marwa__osman/status/1120712087255252993   Permalink 9:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More precise & accurate representation of the mistake; fixed typos. pic.twitter.com/Z2lqshFo3y Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaner @ptetlock’s (Phil the rat) mistake. [more precise] Science is hard Risk is hard. pic.twitter.com/Z3VYClErdD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exact Distribution of different types of payoffs & their conflation in the verbalistic psychology literature. [ref to my bone with @Ptetlock and the forecasting gurus who live on a salary (nonprofit)] pic.twitter.com/7LH5Xz9VWi Permalink 6:37 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #reputation Permalink 12:15 AM – 23 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 4/4 understanding @nntaleb ‘s recent paper here is also critically important to understanding what can go wrong when you approximate financial markets with brownian motion: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1117456873605742592   Permalink 12:06 PM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Markers of aging: 1- You stop learning something new 2- You talk too much about aging 3- The things you forget aren’t the things you should be forgetting Permalink 11:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why I call @Ptetlock a rat. He SIGNED on this paper then renegged & stabbed me in the back WITHOUT even contacting me (to get forecasting contracts). pic.twitter.com/qxnjM8yKVT Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Can someone ask @michaelshermer to explain the equations he is commenting on? Twitter is not generous with BS vendors. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1120363967358963714   Permalink 9:43 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am Christian. I live 11 miles from Salafis. I have skin in the game. And I tell you in past 10y Shiites paid a horrible price. Same during Ottoman era. Permalink 7:22 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Actually… Shiites! They paid the heaviest price. Salafis have been butchering them without much outcry. https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1120162013857161218   Permalink 6:28 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@normonics To @nntaleb’s point: you can only learn from an academic how to be an academic Instead of conveying embodied knowhow from a place of deep understanding, an academic will formulate answers to “essay questions” and “explain his reasoning” in order to keep his GPA up https://twitter.com/hostageklller/status/1119367322379202562   Permalink 6:01 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo: the integration is over any subset of A. Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@nntaleb At the center of my problem with Phil “the rat” Tetlock @Ptetlock is only a matter of…elementary calculus upon which EVERYTHING in his “forecasting” work is built. Elementary. pic.twitter.com/Dn67PIPOz4 Permalink 5:39 AM – 22 Apr 2019

@TalebQuotes Decline starts with the replacement of dreams with memories and ends with the replacement of memories with other memories. Permalink 10:42 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you define yourself as “localist”, nobody frames you in the “partisan” box; both the “left” & the “right” take you for one of them. The only people in favor of centralization are lobbyists, bureaucrats, & DC parasites. Yet the world is centralizing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:31 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Where I show situations (very common in real life) where you NEED to be a poor forecaster to do well in life and business, and vice versa. [Long proofs] (with Some comments on the “scholarship” of the dishonorable Phil “the rat” Tetlock @PTetlock) pic.twitter.com/4Qhnclxlwt Permalink 3:44 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@sustain05 “Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today.” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb pic.twitter.com/zPSyBz6Fz7 Permalink 1:52 PM – 21 Apr 2019

@GOATProfessor Seeing Holy Week tweets about Jesus being persecuted by “White patriarchy” of the Roman Empire. That is false history and this piece from @nntaleb shows the problematic nature of that claim. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday for those who celebrate it today. Permalink 5:13 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@nntaleb We should have a plan to eliminate Google. https://twitter.com/business/status/1119831495529594882   Permalink 2:23 AM – 21 Apr 2019

@kpchand07 I would urge you to read about IQ as it is a discredited and pseudo-science technique. Many “studies” checking country level IQ’s use “proxy” tests to establish IQ. IQ itself is information-less. @nntaleb has written in this area: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb THE CARPENTER FALLACY In our Precautionary Paper we warn against using “experts” in biology to get tail risks of GMOs, even if they aren’t shills: just as a carpenter is not the one to use to compute probabilities of tail payoffs at a roulette table. https://twitter.com/Benjami47068297/status/1119594805422624768   Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Our current system (urbanism) is incapable of learning from its mistakes. https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp/antifragile-urbanism-skin-in-the-game-and-building-what-works/   Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb No! Rationality is more rigorous than shallow @R_Thaler BS https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Lébnéné (In Lebanese): Iza shéra3t l fehmén ana brba7 Iza shéra3t l finnas huwwé byerba7 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114185871841026049   Permalink 4:30 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@bWestenra “There is no such thing as ‘rationality’ of a belief, there is rationality of action.” – @nntaleb, via @rorysutherland 6/12 Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@dianadarke #NotreDame #Architecture #Europe #Syria Acknowledging Europe’s debt to earlier cultures – via a recent interview with @TheNationalUAE https://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/qalb-loze-inside-the-syrian-church-that-influenced-notre-dame-s-architecture-1.851385   Permalink 2:21 AM – 20 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink 4:34 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink 3:54 AM – 19 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is more technically, a RE-conversion. At least, the way converts themselves present it. And ironically it may be the result of and reaction to Wahabisms. https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Muslims-convert-to-Christianity-in-Syrian-town-once-besieged-by-ISIS-587021   Permalink 7:03 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem of these Middleburry idiots is that by attacking and muzzling @CharlesMurray they made a hero out of a mountebank (and, as far as his report of my encounter with him, a bald-faced fabricator). https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1118995502408671234   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Obama, many of the destroyed Syrian churches and monuments PRECEDE Notre Dame. https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1118945629517099009   Permalink 2:32 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Arbitrage boundary pic.twitter.com/dsJGLqqxaE Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@GregorySMcMurry According to the De Broglie–Bohm theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Broglie%E2%80%93Bohm_theory   Black Swan Man is correct. Any information that we could possibly obtain from the past wouldn’t help us because there are nonlocal hidden variables uniting our present & the past into one totality https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1118861754015080449   Permalink 1:37 PM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Better have these just OK, plus friends/family, plus ability to sleep well, than be a hot shot, billionaire, or King. @VerginDen has is right. https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1118868537706205186   Permalink 9:28 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Estonia. https://twitter.com/graafik/status/1118832590432215041   Permalink 6:43 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #blackswanmobile #timetravel #flaneuring #AmorFati pic.twitter.com/bVNkdyV05s Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@ThomasGrava La vraie différence en politique n’est pas une gradation “droite” vs “gauche” mais plutôt “Grecque” vs “Romaine”. “Grecque” préférant la théorie à la pratique. “Romaine” préférant la pratique à la théorie. (Théorie de la ‘Décentralisation Fractale’ @nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/HL8VbFTiRE Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Alas… https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1118503155581407232   Permalink 8:13 AM – 17 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Ship of Theseus. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1118349975606325248   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY DU JOUR The information content of your tweet is a (very) nonlinear function of the probability a subject NOT being discussed, or the language used not being bland & common. Same for conversation. Same for everything. Especially business. pic.twitter.com/2dYRqWnbJk Permalink 6:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #money Permalink 4:42 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 5 They don’t tell you that you are more likely + to learn a foreign language in a bar than in a classroom + to learn mathematics while trading than doing homework + that schoolteachers are a great model of what not to become when you grow up Permalink 2:58 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb I am surprised it is taking so long before someone finds in Hugo’s novel Notre Dame de Paris (The Hunchback of ND) a sentence that vaguely predicts yesterday’s fire. Permalink 2:19 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb With the owners of the squid ink place in Beirut (one of whom was a classmate). The best so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Phf0NRRn1K Permalink 12:48 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@FattestFatTony The pencil necks dont understand, @nntaleb is what the Jamaicans call a #Shotta… Likkle man, nah test nah #Shotta… https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1118226014113607681   Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Apr 2019

@StillmanMD Doctors aren’t just #fooledbyrandomness, they’re taken for a ride by lying #BigPharma! @normonics @nntaleb @trishankkarthik @FattestFatTony https://twitter.com/JAMAInternalMed/status/1118167592710103043   Permalink 11:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 4 That debt helps growth & “innovation” (promoted by bankers) + Neither the Industrial Revolution (Brittain) nor the technological one (Silicon Valley) were financed by debt. + Debt is for wars, crony capitalism, bailing out friendly companies. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@EthanHBellamy Love this from @nntaleb. I’m the Chairman Mao of parenting. pic.twitter.com/O5HeNnQVan Permalink 8:03 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb SCHOLARSHIPS FOR WOMEN ————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 7:09 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In general, when people selfstyle themselves “entrepreneur”, “polymath”, or something of the sort, they’re not. Real entrepreneurs calls themselves “restaurant chain CEO”, “Ski equipment manufacturer”, “kidney imaging importer”… Permalink 4:58 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty, https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Politics_and_Ethics_under_Uncertainty   https://twitter.com/DavidBCollum/status/1118117227285426176   Permalink 4:46 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@tripoli187 So what are you trying to imply? That northern euros can lay claim to Mediterranean & near eastern civilisations of ancient antiquity, when culturally & racially they were not the same people & played no role? Permalink 12:14 AM – 16 Apr 2019

@normonics “A paper should be written like a car manual not a f#*$in chapter in a romance novel” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:53 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@NonMeek Learning about #IQ by turning @nntaleb teachings into cartoons. Simplifying to under 50 words without losing any content is hard. I hope I nailed it [IQ correlates, part 1 of x]. #science #psychology pic.twitter.com/ZuubQI8YIX Permalink 11:41 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Never pathologize (bounded) failure. Pathologize the refusal to try. Permalink 11:11 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t get that in real life one is not paid in frequency but in dollars. Fail frequently, stay convex. Learn to fail. https://twitter.com/michaelskolnik/status/1117788896321048577   Permalink 11:09 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) Phil the Rat Tetlock @ptetlock would probability spread “criticism” by fortune tellers if he found any. Here is how fake the article is. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116317447307526148   Permalink 9:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1) Academia is suicidal. In order to discredit me “Phil the rat” @Ptetlock (“repeatedly stab a friend in the back Phil tetlock”) spreads a linkbait written by a phantom “mathematician”, which he didn’t read (he didn’t realize there is NO fat tails in the discussion). pic.twitter.com/jLLQi7FkH0 Permalink 9:28 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point is that people who f***ck with you online don’t dare to do so offline. Permalink 9:22 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Why is it that people are surprised to NOT find an ogre when they run into me offline? pic.twitter.com/9f6uTUXJ0d Permalink 9:15 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:10 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@holland_tom “#Naples is the most mysterious city in Europe, the only city of the ancient world which didn’t perish like Troy, Nineveh or Babylon. It’s the only city in the world which didn’t drown in the huge shipwreck of ancient civilization. Naples is a Pompei which was never buried.” Permalink 7:30 AM – 15 Apr 2019

@JamesMarsh79 This is what @nntaleb has been saying https://twitter.com/humanprogress/status/1117600681219772416   Permalink 6:42 PM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/5KkDwNJPDS Permalink 8:57 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@nntaleb MATHEMATICAL FINANCE DU JOUR A robust method for tail option pricing. pic.twitter.com/5LqIcg6Lth Permalink 7:58 AM – 14 Apr 2019

@n_santama Last week, we had the great luck of visiting Baalbek/Heliopolis (Greek for “Sun City”), a city inhabited uninterruptedly for 8-9000 years! It is built in the Bekaa valley, between the (still snowy) spectacular Eastern & Western Mountain ranges of Lebanon 1/9… #Baalbek #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Bm4KiN90M2 Permalink 1:08 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@MccluskyMark Super cool outcome of @nntaleb’s #rwri is the fun connections it’s led to, from complexity scientists like @normonics, rebel authors like @GuruAnaerobic, nocturnal philosophers like @trishankkarthik, market decoders like @mikeharrisNY and global oil magnates like @SeloSlav. pic.twitter.com/Cw8hsfvV9J Permalink 12:37 PM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And in Lucky Luke (a French cartoon), Averell Dalton is the most stupid. pic.twitter.com/zlzFUvpkj8 Permalink 9:19 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@AhsanDeliri I was wondering why @nntaleb is under so much noisy baseless attacks. Then it hit me. He studies the root of all fields in life. Risk under uncertainty. His works touch on medicine, politics, economics, business, health, nutrition, entrepreneurship, information theory. Permalink 8:39 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Typo pic.twitter.com/9wv47TkMGS Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntaleb INVERSE QUIZ DU JOUR Is there a mistake of exposition? Or it is my derivation that is wrong. pic.twitter.com/FmoTKLq7NI Permalink 5:21 AM – 13 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated, implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@paulportesi Is it just me or is there an inordinate amount of noise directed at @nntaleb. It seems like record levels. Coming from every direction. He must be doing something right and striking a nerve. He’s agitating the enemy. Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Apr 2019

@inlukka Light green shows the natural boundaries of the union. pic.twitter.com/7Qpk3KwuVE Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ozmudurvekili dear mr taleb the newly elected secular mayor of izmir wants to establish a mediterranean union pls rt & show support https://twitter.com/izmirbld/status/1115903326636445698   Permalink 11:29 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@ggreenwald The only 2 times I can remember establishment liberals like @HillaryClinton and @SenSchumer uniting with and cheering Trump Admin is when (a) he bombed Syria and (b) they indicted Assange (Schumer also cheered moving embassy to Jerusalem). That says a lot about their values. Permalink 9:25 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The Ancient Egyptians represented females as light skinned, males as dark. Simply, sun exposure. [Met in NY] In 19tn C. Damascus, women were never exposed to the sun, with shielded inner gardens. To “stay white and avoid aging” (“la tdalla bayda w ma tja33éd”) pic.twitter.com/UDrBPgbXr8 Permalink 7:05 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 13) The National IQ/Skills regression. This charlatan, the researcher @GarettJones wants us to believe in *race=intelligence* but is not intelligent enough to hide from us the data points. You can draw a line of any slope into this. (cc:@EconTalker) pic.twitter.com/JuB9pl9wp1 Permalink 7:00 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@Brilliant_Ads True story pic.twitter.com/kkI1V2so4p Permalink 5:57 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@NateAFischer For years I’d seen @PeterRex do things that defied conventional wisdom but produced extraordinary results. In Antifragile @nntaleb helped me understand the rationale behind these actions. https://twitter.com/peterrex/status/1116399308750725121   Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 12) My latest details in the busting of “correlation” IQ-something. I noted that when I saw the graphs book by mountebank @CharlesMurray IQ is uninformative under nonlinearity. pic.twitter.com/VbeyCPbyTG Permalink 5:48 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And if you need to refer to race, use the 3 ROBUST geographical designations: Caucasian (i.e. Western Eurasian), Subsaharan, East Asian, (not more than 4). “White” is indicative of purity, not race. Permalink 5:13 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The first time we used “ergodic” in connection with the Precautionary Principle was in an unpublished paper with Aaron Brown in 2013. Before we knew of @ole_b_peters. But we didn’t formulate the math then. Earlier, presented in Fooled by Randomness. cc:@yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/cnBjxX8T04 Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb By “Nordicist” I mean Northern European supremacists. Permalink 4:40 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Don’t use “White Supremacist”. Use Nordicist. Please. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:34 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 11) David Becker is the source of the study: quite alarming handwaving with clueless statistics. In later papers they use “proxies” to obtain IQ. The author of the article is @JamesPsychol James Thompson, a nonacademic psychologic with SINISTER obsessions. pic.twitter.com/Nu9w5Kj0Zr Permalink 3:32 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is good news: people learning to take ergodicity into account for dynamics !!! pic.twitter.com/MP5G4138Iv Permalink 3:11 AM – 12 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Re: Roger Scruton. Why I no longer do interviews with UK journalists. Nobody should. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 6:16 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@Firsou This is the thinnest building in Beirut, Al-Ba3sa aka “The Grudge”. It’s two feet wide at minimum and was built by one brother who wanted to obstruct another’s view of the sea. Is there a place for building out of spite in the eternal way @normonics ? pic.twitter.com/Ltgk5l0K9L Permalink 4:18 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 10) One can raise IQ points by 2 STF just by training, so it can’t be genetic. PS- I’ve been getting 1000s of such messages since I’ve posted the IQ piece by Nordist supremacist trolls. Incidentally, my “co-ethnics” score high on the test. pic.twitter.com/o6VWleKybQ Permalink 12:22 PM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM One person to a life partner:”I deal w/ mundane matters: where to live, what to eat, where to educate the children, etc. You focus on centrally important ones: geopolitical relations, tensions w/Russia, future of technology…” Let the State do the *important* things… Permalink 11:16 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@ddelruss People need to stop with IQ – NNT has already very publicly shown why it should not be used. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116342266195476481   Permalink 9:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 9) I am gently asking @zerohedge to retract that piece. Now. Permalink 7:17 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 6) Fail to get that growth is not driven by AVERAGE but by EXTREMES that depend on variance 7) Even if effect is as claimed, it is drowned into variance to make it usuable as immigration policy. 8) It is IMMORAL to emprison people in fake boxes!!! My PIECE https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 7:15 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2) ALL of these studies fail to account for cultural aspects of testing. 3) Main researcher @GarettJones doesn’t know what NOISE means. 4) Similar previous “research” did same for Irish, Southern Slavs, etc. who have now caught w/rest 5) A few data points can flip IQ/Performance! Permalink 7:12 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: 1/n @ZeroHedge published a post on “country IQ” meant to justify that some races are “genetically inferior”, hence bound to remain poor because of genetic defects. 1) The article was written by a charlatan, James Thompson using shoddy statistics (see my Medium piece) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116074860449619968   Permalink 7:08 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@DineshDSouza Think of all the stuff we wouldn’t know without Assange. He was our media when we had no media to speak of. And we still don’t! Give the man a medal @wikileaks Permalink 6:28 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS ——————————————- Scholarships are available for women & Syrian students (& others from similar places) for the 11th program, RWRI-11, June 24-28 in NYC Please mail a (short) CV to the coordinator. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 5:47 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@derek_j_morris Confirmed it myself pic.twitter.com/R5lZKLzzcT Permalink 5:42 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The interesting thing is that it took one single @Wolfram Mathematica command to prove *by theorem* that the 2000K article in @NautilusMag is fraudulent and the author an impostor. One single command. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115684446081040386   Permalink 5:29 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb N7na zghar, w b3yun l a3adé kbar Hinné khashab 7awr, n7na lalkhashab minshar W7yét Zamzam wTiiba w l nabé l mkhtar Ma bnebné l deir illa min 7ajar 3akkar! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116093721597050880   Permalink 4:01 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Today, they made Jullian Assange a martyr. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Study something old but not visibly useful (classics), something modern and useful (accounting, coding), never something new and not visibly useful. Permalink 8:25 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@42cohen @nntaleb Exactly. I’ve repeatedly tutored students who were struggling and, simply by updating their “software” and creating real-world motivation, achieved psychometrically implausible results. Huge variance above 100 IQ renders it useless + dangerous. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU”>  pic.twitter.com/PwTMeShlfU Permalink 7:11 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The problem with the IQ-race quacks like @StefanMolyneux is that their talking points are designed to deal w/humanities schoolteachers. So a quack with the intellect of a guacamole dip like Molyneux who can’t tell a correlation from a fountain pen is a spokesman for “science”. pic.twitter.com/ZT5NIzRnkZ Permalink 4:09 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Mediterranean cultures actually have tall shaming. “homo lungus raro sapiens”, “tawil habil”, “Troppo lungo non fu mai buono”, “Uomo lungo, testa corta” etc. See Reich (2018) @Steve_Sailer The closer to old settled societies, the more tall shaming. Reverse in roaming hunters https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1116090455706333184   Permalink 2:40 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The beauty of physics is that it can rigorously predict things nobody has seen before, before the emergence of any empirical evidence. Compare to fraudulent fields like psychology that overfit from naive “empirical evidence” to predict nothing. https://twitter.com/NSF/status/1115964620186030080   Permalink 2:20 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bil Aramé kif ולי עמ נגאררב נכתב בלחרפ לאראמאי שו ביתלע מננא לשעלאי? Permalink 12:53 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Jarrabét éktob Llébnéné bl 3arabé. Ma 3am tmshé! Bl Latiné a7san bktir. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1116061453235228673   Permalink 12:43 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb هاللء ازا كتبنا بلحرف هيدا بيمشي امما ما بيمشي؟ كيف بنكتوب لé؟ ولo/ou? Permalink 12:32 PM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Finally!!! https://twitter.com/eastmedmonitor/status/1116031424967204865   Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@DrCirillo A little preview of the forthcoming paper on “violence” with @nntaleb. pic.twitter.com/5dGLRHAPiN Permalink 10:41 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Excited to get the book of @NAChristakis as I am trying to go deeper into the notion of fractal (multiscale) localism & see what’s wrong w/my thesis: It isn’t individuals vs societies but fractal gradations, each w/specific dynamics, (contra the selfish gene philosophastering) pic.twitter.com/gbTxHrOKpu Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2019 Things to do list! https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/1115968097121259521   Permalink 6:57 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer https://www.academia.edu/38762815/Medicine_and_Risk_Transfer?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 5:28 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “When you say something you think are just saying something, but you are largely communicating why you had to say it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:50 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@LieraMarco L’asimmetria nel trasferimento di rischi nella medicina. “Mi stai prescrivendo le statine perché mi fa bene o perché vuoi evitare che i miei eredi ti facciano causa?” E altri esempi. Problema molto americano e (ancora) poco italiano. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432   Permalink 4:48 AM – 10 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/eD1X3qQMU6 Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@normonics Both globalism AND nationalism are monolithic *absorbing* identities, smoothing over and homogenizing where there ought to be rich variety https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 4:12 PM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Dear @NautilusMag you are in severe violation of journalistic ethics (and competence) in the piece “Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math” . You should check with a non-phantom professional before publishing something as elementarily erroneous. pic.twitter.com/oQej2yIG4D Permalink 11:34 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@RandPaul A balanced federal budget isn’t a pie-in-the-sky dream or empty rhetoric. Once again, I am introducing a concrete plan that is achievable. Learn more here: https://www.paul.senate.gov/news/dr-rand%C2%A0paul-introduces-%E2%80%98pennies-plan%E2%80%99-balanced-budget   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b”>  pic.twitter.com/JiWyxb558b Permalink 7:50 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@MilenaRodban My fellow Americans, the tax preparation industry and its powerful lobby are abominations that continue to wield undue influence over our lives. We must unite against it. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/04/congress-is-about-to-ban-the-government-from-offering-free-online-tax-filing/   Permalink 6:59 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@KendraSirak I’m getting excited for our session #AncientDNAinServiceofArchaeology to be held at #SAA2019. Looking forward to seeing many of our colleagues from both archaeology and genetics on Friday (4/12) from 1-5pm in 110 Galisteo (session 253) @JakobSedig pic.twitter.com/vQdbVgTj4U Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@thackerpd Province gave $720K to fired chief medical officer Eilish Cleary https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/eilish-cleary-health-settlement-1.4191543   Radio-Canada took Health Department to court to make severance information public “When fired, Cleary was studying #glyphosate, a controversial herbicide used extensively in New Brunswick” Permalink 6:12 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@Monsantobuster Taleb’s is a peer-reviewed published paper. If it was “wrong”, why didn’t pseudomathematician Clayton (who has NO publications) write to journal? It is shameful that academics spread this smear campaign by Nate Silver ag. Taleb Paper here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   @nntaleb Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@ektrit I owe it to Taleb @nntaleb to understand that ethno-orthodoxy is basically Single God Paganism, you know, Christ helps only my people, not yours. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1115583251458985984   Permalink 4:57 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Paganism is decentralized theology.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:52 AM – 9 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The asymmetry comes from the fact that someone very very incompetent will be incompetent at everything. Someone competent at something may be domain specific. That raises correlation IQ-performance between .12 and .4 Permalink 6:48 PM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Did you read my paper, Mr Caroll to decide whether he knows anything about it? Permalink 11:23 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, Tony, a year later. (Fellow trader Anthony Glickman, aka rabbi Ozer Glickman). “Life is long gamma”, he said. https://twitter.com/markric41763223/status/1115302776307896321   Permalink 10:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid Nassim’s originality and insights always surprises me even when he makes a simple comment for a medical paper. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1115282291704594432   Permalink 10:02 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risks, a comment invited by @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/VJRvfup5aS Permalink 8:56 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Visibly, people are now getting my point. https://twitter.com/crimsonceo/status/1115238408690053122   Permalink 7:22 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Humanities degrees are very valuable (w/o ideological professors), provided it is complemented with real world apprenticeships (accounting, etc.) . It is degrees in psychology and social “science” full of theories that are not just worthless but work in reverse. https://twitter.com/greekhistorypod/status/1114966071746994178   Permalink 5:41 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IQ not even useful for clinical cases:∃ targeted tsts. A Serbian doctor who works w/dementia/Alzheimer reached out to say my IQ post was circulating in his circles (& psychologists hate it): Doctors use dementia-specific cues; nothing to do with IQ. https://twitter.com/KourdaN/status/1115209819449974784   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb More general case, the proportion pic.twitter.com/K1rT6KBmpy Permalink 4:08 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb The point of adding dead people to your sample is to show the effect of the asymmetry: 1) it you hit someone on the head w/a hammer, he will be bad at everything (hence correlation), 2) there is no reverse equivalent. So IQ effects come from borderline clinical people. GAbish? Permalink 3:04 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@MacDBollinger Mr Taleb @nntaleb I must recommend you and your followers to watch Youtubechannel Swedish Investors excellent graphic summary of your books. Fantastik work! @InvestorSwedish https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEesADB0Jk0&list=PLI84Sf0aDgaw-Wy93jPAw4gcNxzNwpP9s&index=3   Permalink 2:31 AM – 8 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Cleaned up on the plane home between twitter arguments. pic.twitter.com/ROQpNofqyU Permalink 4:30 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Some analytics on the ride home from #LibertyCon19: IQ #RacePeddlersIgnorantofProbabilitySuchAsTheQuackPeterson don’t get the effect of the equivalent of adding dead people to your sample. pic.twitter.com/vWIq5rCPQn Permalink 3:38 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ If you include 20% dead people in IQ tests, what will the minimum correlation IQ/performance be if the rest is random? #nonlinearity Permalink 12:45 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Delta’s olive oil is olive oil. Air France’s is 65% seed oil. When you hire “managers” w/o the filtering of SITG, they cut corners (Boeing, Air France, paper quality for publishers) and save pennies. But the manager improved “profitability”. Like short tail options for a tick. pic.twitter.com/zPtnR1gSJD Permalink 12:25 PM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 2/2 This passage, from Taleb’s The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tales especially comes to mind. I think 10 years ago I would have read and just moved on, now I’m finally starting to better understand the way of thinking this passage describes pic.twitter.com/BMI1N3ROmG Permalink 8:56 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@mikeandallie 1/2. I’m rereading When Genius Failed – probably for the 30th time – because I like to understand decision making under stress. As I read it this time I have a better understanding of how much I’ve learned from @nntaleb in the last decade pic.twitter.com/uAsNhRpxt3 Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb This is exactly what I presented at #LibertyCon19: Liberty applies to all scales. No entity (s.a. what this idiot is advocating) should ever impose a national identity on your group, regardless of whether you’re wrong abt your own history (& we’re not). https://twitter.com/7ossain1/status/1114814847672377351   Permalink 7:57 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed modernity is stripping some people of their dignity. https://twitter.com/pravind_paul/status/1114771835508277250   Permalink 12:37 AM – 7 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Indeed, Steve Stuart-Williams is a charlatan. He knows it because he keeps posting unrigorous cherrypicked IQ propaganda. These techniques are NOT predictive. pic.twitter.com/7j70nPUiOQ Permalink 3:39 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@NachoOliveras Indeed. The presenter mentioned round-up (gliphosate) and GMOs as an example of anti-science scaremongers in his punchline. Just remember @nntaleb heuristic for any shill conflating the two on a public platform, works as magic! https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1114170782979174401?s=19   Permalink 1:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@vacimovic Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb & Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan – lecture and conversation in Belgrade. #LibertyCon19 pic.twitter.com/CmHUR0KbAe Permalink 12:24 PM – 6 Apr 2019

@pietercleppe .@nntaleb at #LibertyCon19 Belgrade: In its well-known cartoon, The @NewYorker conflates economists and bureaucrats with real experts, pilots, who have “skin in the game” pic.twitter.com/dMAbl23rWK Permalink 8:26 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@d_pavlovic Belgrade: @nntaleb and @BrankoMilan discuss risk, skin in the game, and income inequality. pic.twitter.com/cBhQlfI04q Permalink 8:24 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My cousin @GeorgeJNasr started a #Flaneuring hashtag. It should have strict rules: NOTHING TOURISTIC. A flaneur is the reverse tourist. See touristification in #Antifragile. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1114298575394103296   Permalink 6:29 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Debating @BrankoMilan in about 1 ½ hours https://twitter.com/petitemilica/status/1113809022447247360   Permalink 5:36 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Tail Option Pricing Under Fat Tails — A deceivingly simple but yuuuuugely robust model. Where we show that the methods used to claim that “tail options are expensive” are highly unrigorous. pic.twitter.com/QMn3qdc7Tv Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. I have been debating Branko who holds DIAMETRICALLY opposed opinions because he is a scholar. Probability is technical and Silver is not a scholar. One does not debate BS vendors. Permalink 5:21 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Belgrade is full of charm & a great flaneuring city. Perfect size (`1m), some parts are renovated, others look like they have been forgotten by history, which makes them mysterious, real, and at times, gripping. Food is ⅓ Ottoman, People look 3/8 Ottoman Marvelous pic.twitter.com/xzI3BXVpSx Permalink 3:47 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Thread by Dhruv who is the other researcher who got the same result I did. Unlike Bullshit Nate, he doesn’t have 3 mil twitter followers. Jut ~ 50. His paper is on the thread. He is more polite than me with Bullshit Nate, but same result. @EconTalker https://twitter.com/DhruvMadeka/status/1114252281636098049   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb @BrankoMilan’s school windows have mesh and lattices. Permalink 2:53 PM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Branko’s elementary school in the background. I observed that it looked like a jail. He wasn’t thrilled with my comment. pic.twitter.com/CYxRgWUWo5 Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb ما جادلت عالمًا إلا غلبته, وما جادلت جاهلًا إلا غلبني Permalink 8:19 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@lkcashin Watching Bayer stock tumble is a thing of beauty. Monsanto is a cancer upon the earth. Biodiversity suffers in every region Monsanto stretches its dirty tentacles and GMF’s are an environmental time-bomb in the making. @nntaleb #fuckmonsanto #goorganic #Cancer #gm Permalink 7:50 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Bullshit Nate, you can fool your audience, not professionals. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4-Competition using 100,000 series, comparing 61 F/cing methods was followed by the M4 F/cing Conference in NYC where its findings were presented Now a special issue of IJF with 33 papers on all aspects of M4 from top academics and practitioners from big tech firms @fotpetr pic.twitter.com/QcihLtbaq3 Permalink 6:36 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb J2b haplogroup epicenter is Serbia. pic.twitter.com/BeADCT4mN2 Permalink 6:34 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@nntaleb How Silver thinks he can bullshit us. pic.twitter.com/DJcAj9vKRL Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Ase, I have attended 4 RWRI and discovered that most of the people that go understand AF “up to a point”… And get lost in theory. Practical AF needs to be a topic… obviously associated with complexity and risk. other topics: AI, entrepreneurship; localism, etc. Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@TalebWisdom “Bureaucracy is a construction designed to maximize the distance between a decision-maker and the risks of the decision.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Apr 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Mandelbrot #fractals #chaos pic.twitter.com/nSLnoWesJn Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 3 The “law of large numbers” almost never works for socioeconomic variables. See Chapters 6-8. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 8:58 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@GMWatch New Brunswick’s chief medical officer was working on a study on #glyphosate when she was suddenly put on leave and then fired. Dr. Cleary had already said that she and her staff concurred with the IARC finding that glyphosate was a probable carcinogen https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/archive/2015/16587-dr-eilish-cleary-is-fired-while-studying-glyphosate   https://twitter.com/GMWatch/status/1113691587232579586   Permalink 7:46 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Adriatic squid ink (risotto) pic.twitter.com/ynX3ltI0Lp Permalink 6:37 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb My lectshur will be on localism and convexity. My debate with Branko is on ergodic vs static equality. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 3:35 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@nntaleb In Belgrade for flaneuring with my former ex-Ottoman (& ex-Byzantine) compatriots @BrankoMilan and @PredragBrajovic, and to debate Branko at #LibertyCon19 Permalink 3:31 AM – 4 Apr 2019

@NeilNRockville I just got through that section of Antifragile, and it blew my mind that he predicted it so closely, then I looked back at it in retrospect and it was clear why it was so predictable… Permalink 5:45 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM: Why tribal links are important for survival & fail w/abstract universalism: you’d rather love your child w/intensity 1 & save her from drowning > love 1000 strangers each w/intensity .001 ALL Nonlinearities lead to convex effects #antifragility https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 4:58 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 2 Semitic & Indo European languages appear to BOTH emerge from the same area in the Caucasus-Zagros-Anatolia, owing to proximity of agricultural vocabulary & similar original pop. genetics. Current linguistic categories are unrigorous. @Safaitic Permalink 3:21 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 1 That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables. It is very rarely so. Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict linearity… and its interpretation is nonlinear: 90% correlation >>> 80%. pic.twitter.com/9fCv0f6YXJ Permalink 3:17 PM – 3 Apr 2019

@kiwiandroiddev This article calls to mind @nntaleb’s Antifragile: “Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens – usually.” https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/a-lack-of-redundancies-on-737-max-system-has-baffled-even-those-who-worked-on-the-jet/   Permalink 12:44 AM – 3 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Damn good. pic.twitter.com/QD0rF32l7z Permalink 11:03 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@holland_tom Huge thanks to @nntaleb for his kind words… #Dominion https://twitter.com/LaraHeimert/status/1113104190014984194   Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb And, BTW, the only enterprise that did fail more than “secular Arabism ” under a centralized state over the past century is perhaps the attempt to make a collection of pigs sing the Latin version of Te Deum in a syncronized way in a Gothic Cathedral. But not sure. Permalink 4:19 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb OVERT CLUELESSNESS These croissants are bought for ~$.40 to $.80. The markup comes from the monopoly given to the concession. @AOC is the logical empiricist’s nightmare. https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1112739837822582784   Permalink 3:27 AM – 2 Apr 2019

@nntaleb High time to make my decision public. https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1112715864850128898   Permalink 8:43 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb There is no depth in Peterson. A modicum of insight wrapped in marketing BS, unrigorous psycholophastering (IQ, Big 5, 5 humors) masquerading as scholarship. In short, a quack. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1112741408979353601   Permalink 8:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb Booked a table! https://twitter.com/Toni_Bader93/status/1109188645955792897   Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb These dumb fucks at @metmuseum were trying to illustrate their theories of “Middle East identity” showing a Hellenistic sarcophagus from Sidon with… Greek inscriptions on it. Permalink 5:42 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Since ~1100 BC Phoenicians (then “Lebanese”) have been the MOST MEDITERRANEAN of pples: look at food/behavior/looks. But since 1860 some low-Intellect Westerners (Arabists & founders of AUB, etc.) have decided de-Mediterraneanize (initially de-Ottomanize) to satisfy “identity” Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@trishankkarthik Everyone should drop what they’re doing, and read this paper right now Sometimes doctors have independently discovered special applications of this idea (e.g., ventilation machine), but it surprises me that they haven’t tried applying the same idea more generally (e.g., cancer) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1112694075084472320   Permalink 5:36 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/tQimRV7n5M Permalink 5:32 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb 1 /2 That is the idea of statistical distribution of harm #Antifragility /second order effects in Medicine. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1112528982807904256   Permalink 5:31 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@nntaleb IDENTITY MONGERS “Art and Identity in the Ancient Middle East” at @metmuseum: Edward Said-style identity mongers proceed to destroy the notion of cosmopolitan localism/Mediterraneanism of the Phoenicians. It shows the horrors of non-localist Nationalism. 1/n pic.twitter.com/AT4U1TW0zK Permalink 5:15 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@VergilDen On this April 1st morning I’m reminded of that time years ago when @nntaleb & I were in Italy and we deadlifted, rented a Black Swan Lambo & tore up Rome. Then we drove up the coast to meet Umberto Eco at his Villa. We perused his antilibrary & ate squid ink pasta. Good times. pic.twitter.com/SRwykqA3Fb Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Apr 2019

@Gore_Burnelli One of the habits I’ve acquired from reading @nntaleb’s books is to always be skeptical whenever an academic declares a working system to be “backwards”, “medieval”. See for example Robert Sapolsky’s take on the American criminal justice system @ 23:18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61tChpN3lhY#t=23m18   Permalink 5:07 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:23 AM – 31 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To become a philosopher king, start with being a king, not being a philosopher. Permalink 12:39 PM – 30 Mar 2019

Entropy, Monsanto, Mutual Information, “European”, Localism, Correlation, Leaving NY, IQ, Pinker, DUNNING-K | Twitter

@paulportesi Seriously I f****** love waking up to this. Entropy methods better than correlation in nonlinearities. F****** brilliant. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1111966227503689728   Permalink 5:54 AM – 30 Mar 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Just to show the vast superiority of Entropy methods such as Mutual Information over correlation, and to show how correlation breaks down under nonlinearity, consider high Mutual information but “zero correlation” in the case of a straddle: pic.twitter.com/U6VLXFohkF Permalink 5:19 AM – 30 Mar 2019

@vonkronstadt https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728562580583796737   Permalink 3:02 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@Gordon48814362 “Wittgenstein argues, among other things, that superficial grammatical similarities in the forms of both religious and factual statements mislead us into believing that they are fundamentally identical states of “belief.”” This is @nntaleb ‘s point, protestants got it mixed up Permalink 2:22 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@CaseyBHead Americans lost confidence in political parties, public schools, courts, organized labor, banks, big business, media and other institutions because they didn’t change with society. We need to create robust, decentralized, voluntary institutions. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1111606150900912128   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @mises @WarrenBuffett #Greenspan @jaegerlecoultre #MarxBrothers #Moonraker pic.twitter.com/KTUE9ktc0l Permalink 11:20 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@thackerpd Roundup Trial: Monsanto Used Fake Data to Win Over Regulators https://www.courthousenews.com/roundup-trial-monsanto-used-fake-data-to-win-over-regulators/   #Monsanto planted an employee at a lab to fake data Planned an attack on @IARCWHO Exploited ties at the @EPA ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/FTFSGQXQUq”>  pic.twitter.com/FTFSGQXQUq Permalink 5:43 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Institutions tend to work at their beginning. So does centralization. Then rotting starts. Permalink 5:28 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:33 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This is the free copy of the paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   Permalink 2:21 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FINALLY PUBLISHED How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for f… https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018301535   Permalink 1:22 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FINALLY PUBLISHED How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for f… https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018301535   Permalink 1:22 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Question about convention in @WolframResearch’s Mathematica with the dot product vs multiplication. What is standard for X .Transpose [Y] vs X Y ? @SwedeWhite pic.twitter.com/5kUX71o2CS Permalink 10:41 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 100% of Survival is reliability. — CNN is committing suicide. Even its partisans, those who cheer its slant on the news, will rapidly scorn it. #Lindy Permalink 9:58 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism @nntaleb @normonics ? https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1111152928725753857   Permalink 6:54 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb No Monsanto shill & people who engage in vile smear campaigns against scientists skeptical of GMOs/Glyphosate should remain unaccountable. Gabish? @EconTalker https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1110960948527927297   Permalink 4:30 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto… https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_6OcNCbWCC13TJ   via @amazon Permalink 3:56 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Antonio Spadaro, friend for 8 years, squid ink Grand Maestro. pic.twitter.com/ZPsglOkP34 Permalink 5:19 PM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Antonio Spadaro of New Rochelle (and Sicily) , (very) proud of his squid ink risotto! pic.twitter.com/QBhJBSecPB Permalink 4:58 PM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The next contagion of costly virtue signaling. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-26/hedge-fund-returns-300-million-saudi-investments-over-khashoggi-killing   Permalink 10:12 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To be precise, Hagia Sophia’s “original” state is, technically, a church (actually, a Cathedral). https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1110840663183183872   Permalink 7:53 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@ggreenwald The entire purpose of this 8,000-wrod @NewYorker profile was to depict me as being mentally unwell – psychologically damaged and full of rage and resentment – as the explanation for why I refused to stop questioning the undeniable truth of collusion https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/09/03/glenn-greenwald-the-bane-of-their-resistance   Permalink 7:52 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@PZalloua It is here!!! https://twitter.com/phoenicianinst/status/1110914446065651713   Permalink 7:43 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@mythoughtfood Proof that science is an über slow process. ” For centuries, scholars have argued over his account because there was no archaeological evidence that such ships ever existed. ” Now the ship exists. Classic case of absence of evidence confused with evidence of absence @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Jamie_Woodward_/status/1107254598169968640   Permalink 5:01 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@CTBnutrition @nntaleb thank you for standing up to these crooks and inspiring others to do so as well. pic.twitter.com/vCchT69n8W Permalink 6:12 PM – 26 Mar 2019

@davidsarac Curiosity which leads to tinkering brings forward emergence & transformation. Creativity which obsesses about novelty results in social degeneration Curiosity is underrated in current day and age, while creativity is severely overrated. pic.twitter.com/k5qjWwoOln Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A Byzantine health station in North Lebanon. Two of my ancestors come from there. https://twitter.com/XNaheereX/status/1110567881866207232   Permalink 8:47 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb @felhagehistoire Permalink 8:46 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A Historian showing the link between the French revolution & lack of skin in the game on the part of aristocrats, who owe their initial status to the fact that they need to take risk w/their lives for others. There is something annoying in status without risk and #skininthegame pic.twitter.com/2X9ATrD6sl Permalink 8:42 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mutual information sheds light on why low correlations are meaningless. Things are now clearer and clearer. pic.twitter.com/3ioccAWOIJ Permalink 7:41 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@GreenFuzz24 Answer to global problems and uncertainty is the total opposite: fractal localism. See: @nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 7:40 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BEAUTIFUL DISCOVERY Unlike correlation, Mutual Information (cross entropy) is additive. On that, later. Permalink 4:50 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@Cernovich He was the head of the CIA. That’s what I take away most from the Russian collusion hoax. The power they have over human lives. How many people did Brennan have tortured based on his intel? These are evil people. https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/ex-cia-director-john-brennan-admits-he-may-have-had-bad-information-regarding-president-trump-and-russia   Permalink 4:03 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@ektrit https://twitter.com/halaljew/status/1110226314202677248?s=19   Permalink 1:21 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Confused by Correlation? https://youtu.be/p76bQlnVuBM   Permalink 1:35 PM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Paul Krugman @paulkrugman remains the best argument for the suspension of the “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”. https://twitter.com/greta/status/1110126131557085185   Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@ektrit Current concept of “European” was conceived in the 19th century meaning “Not Muslim”, or “Not Turk”, that is why Europe is being handled as a separate “continent”, while not being an actual continent. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1110132957359099907   Permalink 5:40 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Stephennie Mulder @stephenniem is another one who falls for the trap of Northern European Supremacism & Med denigration under cover of “diversity” https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 4:40 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb My entire book Fooled by Randomness was that the modern interpretation of “Intelligence” (as reflected in IQ tests/school grades) seems to favor those prone to be *fooled by false patterns* over those who can intellectually grasp the notion of randomness/absence of information. https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1110128220265836545   Permalink 4:13 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “European” is a modern term, not a genetic term. “Western Eurasian” is the genetic zone, which largely contradicts her point. Why are ideological historians so ignorant? https://twitter.com/stephenniem/status/1109795282806542336   Permalink 3:54 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Not #Lindy. https://twitter.com/lukeharding1968/status/936577757676494854   Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@ggreenwald Turning on Mueller and impugning his integrity and competence is the inevitable outcome – it’s the only play the Trump/Russia devotees have – and here’s the start: https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1109934811236306944   Permalink 4:47 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@lebanonpics Lebanon Houses pic.twitter.com/TZGqhovFkJ Permalink 12:11 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb When people get rich, they start follow the constructed preferences by the marketing industry, get hoodwinked into complicated lives… then, if they are lucky, give up. https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   Permalink 7:28 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb If you explicitly understand what you *really* like, you have a yuuuge advantage in life. γνῶθι σεαυτόν Permalink 7:22 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb People don’t know their preferences: they think they like large houses, but prefer to huddle in small spaces over large empty silent rooms. Never ask pple what they “like”, watch what they do. #Skininthegame https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-growing-problem-in-real-estate-too-many-too-big-houses-11553181782?shareToken=st3ef00990e5c44084b72a3fc0bc599e11   via @WSJ Permalink 7:16 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – “any person psychopathologizing another, particularly when there is political divergence.” – Serial nitpickers – Lobbyists – Pple who answer “stick to your discipline” instead of counterargument – Someone abusing language w/”racist”, “nazi”, etc. Permalink 6:11 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – people who don’t get that tweets and aphorisms don’t need hedging – people with cute remarks on math problems – people who give unsolicited advice – people who make logical mistakes – people who represent Monsanto/Saudi Barbaria Permalink 6:10 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” – people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom [@nntaleb] DO[es] NOT want to have an exchange because you DO[es] NOT learn/advance from bullshit. – sophistry Permalink 6:08 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt Without further ado, a list of blockable offenses according to @nntaleb (who once blocked me, forcing me to create a new account (don’t block me bro)) Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=%40nntaleb%20block&src=typd&lang=en   – idiots – people who discuss @nntaleb’s tone – anyone who mentions dunning-kruger in his feed Permalink 6:07 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@JordiLlatzer You NEVER are able to change just one square on a Rubik cube. That’s how complex systems work. That is how life works. Permalink 11:29 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/LouisLebbos/status/1018912920221241354   Permalink 10:11 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@nntaleb For Power law, it is … worse. 2 Quadrants will have a negative correlation! pic.twitter.com/H8JTcEjNIz Permalink 10:01 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@Jaffer22915438 I will never stay silent about our government’s and MSM’s lust for war and will call out every pinhead jackass who lie to bring death & destruction abroad. if you have a few minutes, read Taibbi’s latest: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/iraq-war-media-fail-matt-taibbi-812230/amp/?__twitter_impression=true   Permalink 4:31 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@NathanH48069967 As @nntaleb maintains: we need localism. “. . . you can’t fool the neighborhood. . .” “. . built a massive . . structure that . . James Howard Kunstler would later liken to a “Darth Vader building”. .” Southern Poverty Law Center https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-reckoning-of-morris-dees-and-the-southern-poverty-law-center   Permalink 8:44 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb An illustration of my point that “Psychology is a self-referential publishing ring”. https://twitter.com/EPoe187/status/1109074623407288320   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Please explain “correlation”. Now. Permalink 6:37 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The first casualy of the metric is the “Sortino ratio” used in finance. pic.twitter.com/S8fOTTwW0R Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists like @EPoe187 are *genuinely* convinced that theirs is a science, and that their measurements are like those in physics. https://twitter.com/EPoe187/status/1108706958507458560   Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mike @mikeharrisNY explains it better than anyone else. https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/1108837935699382277   Permalink 2:47 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb From those wondering who is the Dan from Prague, he is the one who gave me the most effective blurb ever written on the back of a book. pic.twitter.com/qtXtYWuEYG Permalink 2:44 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I got the intuition in 1 D, from variance. pic.twitter.com/rAavGRIhdT Permalink 2:38 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@mikeharrisNY The way I see it: due to intricate properties of corr function, sub-sample corr cannot be inferred from sample corr when those sub-samples are not random but refer to specific ranges. Applies to IQ-income corr. Applies to finance and has fooled portfolio managers. Major discovery Permalink 2:08 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally found Dan from Prague. https://twitter.com/maircomm/status/1108811863431749632   Permalink 12:28 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@garyruskin Fired Quebec scientist blew the whistle on #pesticide lobby influence. Via @NatObserver @ottawacarl http://bit.ly/2FhU6F8   “the union said he was trying to alert his superiors about attempts by industry to suppress publicly-funded science on the health effects of pesticides.” Permalink 10:20 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This is a Monte Carlo code for replication to prove I am not hallucinating pic.twitter.com/G8L0JRYi4R Permalink 8:07 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Look here: I break up a quadrant into 4 subquadrants. Correlation keeps getting lower. Reason: correlation is convex. pic.twitter.com/GgskQcsyna Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/7VpTPlGpXe Permalink 7:11 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@355BC326BC The Greek Orthodox Cathedral of Saint George, the Mother-Cathedral of the Orthodox community in the city of Beirut, Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/athsZg0YDR Permalink 9:25 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Correlation is Weird: all non random subsamples will yield a correlation below the total one. pic.twitter.com/ZBplIjnmuX Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@rorysutherland Cheap talk versus skin in the game! https://twitter.com/CravenPartners/status/1108459626373279744   Permalink 1:14 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb @SClarkeWriter Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Cyprus = Lebanon without the egos. https://twitter.com/the_levantist/status/1108077355594104832   Permalink 4:17 PM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto spent $$$ insulting science by transforming it into propaganda, smearing scientists & pple like yours truly who were skeptical of their risk management. Bayer had the brilliant idea of buying Monsanto. From here on, the process is unstoppable! https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1108134186236272640   Permalink 3:59 PM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb #Mars2019 pic.twitter.com/ShEvg2YtTP Permalink 10:36 AM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb ” Yém7é ésmo w Zkro” is an ancient Mediterranean practice יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ The equivalent is “damnatio memoriae” for the Romans. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1107970750454091776   Permalink 5:22 AM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb My review of Stephen Clarke’s book on the French Revolution. https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Stephen+Clarke+%28author%29&ref=cm_cr_srp_d_pdt_bl_sr   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5zKA0m3ZFd”>  pic.twitter.com/5zKA0m3ZFd Permalink 5:37 PM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb So correlation, even under nonlinearities, has a strict narrow meaning. When correlation is 80% it will be insignificant in 2 quadrants (.02), and .57 in others. Even something taken for granted s.a. correlation is hard. pic.twitter.com/wJ3XhrWljN Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb You can see through the BS by having a single plot “IQ” vs “Age at death” with a VERY large sample (general population) without control schmontrol and all the discussions. THEN do you do analytics. Permalink 7:59 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Analytic Solution is Done. We can see Correlation is sub and superadditive pending on Quadrant. And what happens with different Quadrant Correlations. pic.twitter.com/dWhGt24LKU Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Where I discover that the common Levantine name”Fares” or “Phares” does not mean “horserider” but comes from Φαρές, the Syrian-Greek transliteration of the Hebrew “Perez” or “Peretz” פרץ son of Judah. @WalidPhares pic.twitter.com/QmjgleMQkD Permalink 7:01 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Scott Adams blocked a bunch of people (including me) over the remark. It is hard for laymen to be told: “Sutor, ne ultra crepidam” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1100446659379638272   Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Can Mr @JoshuaGrubbsPhD, PhD show us the error terms of his graph? Just an honest plot with all the data points will suffice. Thank you. https://twitter.com/JoshuaGrubbsPhD/status/1107079163146657792   Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@financequant I don’t always know how to succeed, but I know how to survive–and I sure as hell am not ready to give up. Permalink 1:25 PM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Multiscale_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In my manifesto I discuss a SCALE TRANSFORMATION: A group of assholes pursuing asshole interests under the rule of law produces a virtuous society; A group of moralizing utopianists trying to make society virtuous produce …hell. Adding complexity to Mandeville/Smith. Permalink 10:40 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb For those into envy politics who plan on taxing the rich as sitting duck, remember the properties of power laws: between ½ & 2% of taxpayers paid up to 50% of state taxes. At the margin, the departure of 5-10 people can bankrupt a state! IYIs think in statics not dynamics. pic.twitter.com/NPvJbxPXvI Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am not fully leaving NY yet, just using it as a “secondary” residence for now (I spent less than 4-5 months there anyway). Just to make sure these socialist lunatics don’t surprise me with some expropriation. Permalink 9:30 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Received the incredibly well made book by ⁦@drjasonfung⁩ and ⁦@drjamesdinic⁩. They use the potent designation “nonfood items”. I wonder how many nutritional studies would still hold their conclusions if we removed “nonfoods” from the tests. Science is hard. pic.twitter.com/toI9UiRPyT Permalink 9:21 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@Monsantobuster GMO arguments by shills. cc:@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/t50VmSP1mz Permalink 6:45 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb NY will soon learn that only way you can enforce socialism is by closing borders and keeping people trapped inside (Cuba, Soviet bloc). People vote with their feet: a mechanism by which organic systems enforce selection. Permalink 5:42 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I just got a thingy in Atlanta to move away from these suicidal lunatics in NY. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-16/class-warfare-tax-absentee-nyc-property-owners-met-strong-opposition   Permalink 3:39 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The word “Wine” <- vinum <- οίνος (->vin, vino, etc.) comes from the Phoenician יין (Yayn). Affaire closed. #Lindy. Permalink 3:27 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BEWARE THE “JUST SO” It was always assumed that civilization began with agriculture. Gobekli Tepe, though, was built 500 years before its people built their first farms. https://allthatsinteresting.com/gobekli-tepe?utm_source=pubexchange_twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=pubx_ancient_origins   Permalink 1:15 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Clearer: Shows the quadrant-dependent nature of correlation (and its su-additivity) EVEN in the absence of nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com/kW2EMj4spn Permalink 10:00 AM – 16 Mar 2019

@mrraoofi After so many years using the word “IQ” instead of “intelligence” or “cleverness”, many people have difficulty understanding the point @nntaleb makes about the swindle which is IQ. You say: IQ, they hear: intelligence or mental capacity,…. Permalink 1:09 AM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A simple Monte Carlo showing how correlation is NOT ADDITIVE; sums of quadrant correlations do nto match the aggregate. Analytical solution done but needs trimming. @apgox pic.twitter.com/Yea2IHssvZ Permalink 6:53 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FOOLED BY CORRELATION: even when rho=0, we see positive correlation in the double negative quadrants. Without even adding nonlinearities. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/qcRQNvZb8Z Permalink 2:36 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FOr the nth time, it is not that IQ does not measure social skills/wisdom, etc. It DOES NOT MEASURE MENTAL CAPACITY. Gabish? https://twitter.com/JM_Irishitaly/status/1106634471808397316   Permalink 12:15 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb More background info https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 12:13 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Same story for income. Above average income there is NO correlation. A “low IQ” person as likely to get a higher income. pic.twitter.com/SlMgwgWuoc Permalink 12:00 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The IQ situation even worse. Found that here is no correlation IQ- income/wealth at highers levels EVEN FOR LOW IQ. Hence the math used for “g” fails. Psycholophasters do not seem to know what correlations mean under nonlinearity. And, BTW @jordanbPeterson is a quack. pic.twitter.com/BCN3Z1JMYt Permalink 11:56 AM – 15 Mar 2019

@hugowiz «They are also prone to mistake the ensemble for the linear aggregation of its components—that is, they think that our understanding of single individuals allows us to understand crowds and markets …» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #IYI #Intellectuals pic.twitter.com/Dkk8RWALM1 Permalink 8:19 AM – 15 Mar 2019

@IlhanMN The Saudi royal family has literally helped fund Al Qaeda. This is the debate no one wants to have but needs to be had. Saudi accountability is long overdue. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/world/middleeast/24saudi.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share   https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1105903411579572227   Permalink 12:09 PM – 14 Mar 2019

@RandPaul Jailed Saudi female activists have been subjected to torture, beatings, electric shocks, and sexual abuse. Don’t sell arms to barbarians! https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/saudi-female-activists-finally-get-a-day-in-court-they-deserve-freedom/2019/03/13/0bcf1990-45a5-11e9-90f0-0ccfeec87a61_story.html   Permalink 11:24 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics means NO to corporatocracy. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1106224344995381249   Permalink 9:41 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb If there is someone spreading statistical illiteracy & naive empiricism, it is @sapinker. Statistics is hard. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1106171241499508744   Permalink 6:47 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Universa meeting in Miami. pic.twitter.com/642WWbYEfK Permalink 4:17 PM – 13 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Why “good” forecasters go bust and how the literature in psych on decision theory is at least 2000 years behind pic.twitter.com/7aj0hrqBT9 Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Yes, when said wage is low. Ironically you are freest at low income; much much more than when in the middle class. https://twitter.com/dkhozem/status/1105612154097594368   Permalink 5:11 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Final typos removed pic.twitter.com/06QAO55PLK Permalink 3:36 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Formal proof pic.twitter.com/FPTPhHaHN3 Permalink 3:04 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Applying it to the Lognormal pic.twitter.com/UsrYpcF8NX Permalink 2:39 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fus7a is largely a fabricated language used by poets to impress poets. @Safaitic is by far the most insightful linguist I’ve ever encountered. https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1105570076932087808   Permalink 1:47 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb DUNNING-K From now on, I block anyone mentioning Dunning-Kruger in my feed. 1) It doesn’t really exist (bad science by psycholophasters), 2) it doesn’t really apply in most cases where mentioned. Gabish? Permalink 12:09 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Hint: as volatility rises, because the distribution is bounded to the left, the probability of exceeding any level goes to 0, with the mass a Dirac at 0. The point is that all the expectation is owed to a single low probability tail event. pic.twitter.com/0y0M1bhFDK Permalink 12:00 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A bureaucrat is judged by other bureaucrats. That’s the root of the problem. Permalink 11:47 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@tedcruz First time I’ve ever retweeted @ewarren But she’s right—Big Tech has way too much power to silence Free Speech. They shouldn’t be censoring Warren, or anybody else. A serious threat to our democracy. https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1105256905058979841   Permalink 10:40 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In the past, scholars who were not financially independent were directly funded by Maecenas —rich patrons. Today they are funded by bureaucrats. #Skininthegame Permalink 10:12 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ du jour pic.twitter.com/kM1CkZnNzz Permalink 8:37 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In #Antifragile: Making pilots rely on automation… pic.twitter.com/iYfy7o316r Permalink 7:50 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@Firsou He gets it. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1105468569800839169   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Looks like in spite of all of the arguments, psychologists s.a. @NickWolfinger and his BS vending econ friends @ATabarrok et al. do not know what correlation means, how it works under nonlinarities, etc. They are not even at par to understand the insults. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1105300436540522496   Permalink 6:03 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Indeed someone in the Administration is heeding the practical suggestions associated with #Skininthegame. Trump’s Budget: pic.twitter.com/bctISMWwK2 Permalink 5:21 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The passage in #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/WFD1lNVmje Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Mar 2019

@holland_tom “A God who didn’t really suffer on the cross would be like magician who performed an illusion” – @nntaleb on the implications of the docetist Christ having no skin in the game. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1105154307568095233   Permalink 11:25 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I meant The LAW OF MEDIUM NUMBERS Permalink 10:40 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I should have named the article: THE LAWS OF MIDDLE NUMBERS Since it shows how the law of large numbers works before the limit. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   Permalink 10:35 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@DrMichaelBonner If anyone want to read my review of #SkinintheGame, it’s here: https://www.academia.edu/36659057/Aphorisms_from_Antique_Lands   Permalink 10:11 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In #Antifragile, you need strong evidence to override nature’s reaction. Nobody could back up why we ice injuries. Nobody, https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1105109687538802688   Permalink 9:23 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@RustedOak The President’s budget was released today. Page 2 mentions colleges having #SkinInTheGame and student loan Risk Sharing just like @purduemitch has preached for years, @nntaleb for decades. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/budget-fy2020.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dy4oceNceX”>  pic.twitter.com/dy4oceNceX Permalink 8:50 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@CantHardyWait Here @nntaleb captures why he doesn’t have an assistant. “You want maximum free time, not maximum activity” pic.twitter.com/GW3wNwmg5w Permalink 5:35 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Lawla l3arabé baddo ymshé kén alla3 min zamén. W-halla2 ma3 social media ma 3ad fi majél la2anno lss7f 3am tmut. Permalink 4:10 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This money belongs to the taxpayers. Public office is not an investment strategy. https://twitter.com/epsilontheory/status/1104847045087641600   Permalink 4:06 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This money belongs to the taxpayers. Public office is not an investment strategy. https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1104847045087641600   Permalink 4:06 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A bit a background about my twitter fights, as lying on a hammock becomes excruciatingly boring after 4-6 min. pic.twitter.com/urd3mhHRaM Permalink 6:55 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @WarrenBuffett #buffettman #marginofsafety #tailrisk #lifejacket pic.twitter.com/C95mRn4Cvu Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Using an unreliable measure s.a. IQ on grounds that that’s “what best we got” and “science” proceeds that way” (it doesn’t) is accepting self labelled “bullshit” as scientific statements. And this Bullshit is a technical term in philosophy: the disrespect for Truth. Permalink 5:54 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Not my point. My point is that IQ doesn’t even measure that part of intelligence it is supposed to measure. Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2tana3t. Khalas! Case closed. https://twitter.com/encrier/status/1104389426233384962   Baddna nmshé ma3 l wé2e3 Permalink 5:28 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BTW this is the latest version on IQ https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:18 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@PaulSkallas https://twitter.com/DIsaac8/status/979874998289547264?s=19   Permalink 5:00 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am waiting for the dust to settle on the IQ and “g” thingy to address something called the Big Five and the “factor analysis”. It does make astrology look like an academic discipline. Permalink 4:57 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Philosophia ancilla theologiae Permalink 4:07 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@seyyedreza Ezekiel’s Tomb is located between Najaf and Karbala, Shia Islam’s holiest sites. Not only did Jews and Muslims worship side by side; their practices influenced each other. Scholars argue that Jewish practices at the tomb are based on Shia ziyara rituals. https://ajammc.com/2019/03/03/ezekiels-tomb-jewish-iraq-muslim/   Permalink 1:05 PM – 9 Mar 2019

IQ, Pinker, Jordan Peterson, Statistics, FRACTAL LOCALISM, Psychology, Tetlock, Caplan, Edward Said, Peter Francopan, Julia Galef, Tulsi Gabbard | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books

@nntaleb N7na ldiaspora min faddél latiné. Bass l3alam juwwa bigakkro gheir shi la2annon t3awwado. Wkamén l Yiddish huwwé Ilmané maktub bil 7arf l 3brané nafsl abjadiyyé. Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/gRJ8QYIrxP Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 3am fakkér ista3mél l7arf l3arabé lal né0-kn3ané. Lésh? La2anno fina shwayy shwayy nbay3éd 3annon, mush fard ddarbé –ma3 inno l7arf l latiné a2rab 3a 7akiyna. Wma ninsa 2nno l7arf l3arabé asslo fini2é kamen! Shu ra2ykon? Permalink 2:24 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Orthodoxy reposes on the notion that a) G-d had to become man to suffer and have skin in the game and, more centrally for Orthodoxy, b) Man can become G-d via a merger called theosis BECAUSE G-d had skin in the game: Αὐτὸς γὰρ ἐνηνθρώπησεν, ἵνα ἡμεῖς θεοποιηθῶμεν Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@ektrit In Orthodox Theology, humans are higher than angels and higher than all other creatures of God, precisely because God had “skin in the game” by having One Person of the Holy Trinity, Christ, assuming a PERFECT human body. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1104141492627611655   Permalink 2:14 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Different mafia: without a sense of loyalty, honor and the ironclad committment to deliver on their promises. https://twitter.com/johnnysportcoat/status/1104140929978589189?s=21   Permalink 2:13 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally, someone who (along with @DrMichaelBonner ) understood Skin in the Game. It makes humans superior to gods. https://twitter.com/giles_fraser/status/1104005211155283968   Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Cosa Nostra American branch, that is. Permalink 11:21 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The mafia has effectively ended. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-metro-mob-boss-carmine-persico-dies-in-prison-20190307-story.html   Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@giles_fraser No one should be too big to fail. Not even God. ⁦@nntaleb⁩ Why God needs skin in the game – UnHerd https://unherd.com/2019/03/why-god-needs-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb …and I regretted it. It wasn’t paella at all, squid ink was dry… Permalink 3:53 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink paella in, of all places, Ralleigh-Durham. pic.twitter.com/DQK1DcwZeB Permalink 4:55 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb And it has nothing to do with the video. Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@RustedOak Every Thursday, @senatorbraun presides over the Senate for 3 hours. Today he explicitly requested his copy of #SkinInTheGame (by @nntaleb) to read while in the big chair. pic.twitter.com/xKctNRqLyh Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Put me on the record: Jordan Peterson @jordanbpeterson is a charlatan. https://twitter.com/nufflez/status/1103735657271345158   Permalink 12:33 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends In my book on Politics, Localism I answer questions. Anything to suggest here? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ”>  pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ Permalink 12:18 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I never never never use TED-style words such as “enrich lives”. Never. Fake quote https://twitter.com/gbutrous/status/1103582034654625793   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “The only time he forgot about his short height was when he asked his accountant to read out his bank statement, something which he did multiple times a day.” (on Ehud Laniado who just passed during vanity surgery) Permalink 2:48 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM pic.twitter.com/ogO0MC4Nmi Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@VaniPalomo Skin in the game (?) @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jfcarpio/status/1103142481665892352   Permalink 9:53 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Ended up publishing with an internet startup [2000 bubble!] that gave me ½ the royalties to accept my intransigence. Bookstores hardly carried their books. Without @Amazon you would have never heard of me. The internet startup went predictably bust. Got the rights back. Permalink 8:46 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Dear unpublished author: Took me 3 years to publish the book. Editors wanted to “improve” the style, remove parables/fictional char, add charts to make it “more professional”. ~99% of publishers said ~”this book will flop”…& gave reasons. I was stubborn and uncompromising. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103044166169300994   Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Intergenerational risk management https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103073842984034304   Permalink 3:30 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@LPNational Libertarians don’t pander, we support all freedoms, all of the time. pic.twitter.com/GR9IU4HPrZ Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness is apparently a bit Lindy. The book is 18 years old cc:@paulskalas http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RSMXMuiPf5 Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Region Plot to see where lhs-rhs is negative (next) pic.twitter.com/9BjW4uSRwn Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Every single fact in the NYT is true. Every bit of news is flase. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099232862090465281   Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@LIHF_Living All the reasons why you should never take #statins, summed up neatly in one paragraph. From AF by @nntaleb .. pic.twitter.com/sm5m4h8KED Permalink 9:32 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Small workout du jour Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine pic.twitter.com/5FIq6HiMku Permalink 8:54 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists playing with regression… https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1102973930191679500   Permalink 8:49 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Statistics is hard. Very hard. https://twitter.com/KetoAurelius/status/1101848406803312640   Permalink 6:48 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Bien sur http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 5:38 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@DellAnnaLuca The fact that (almost) all degrees have the same duration regardless of the complexity of the underlying field is the best evidence that education has been built around the universities’ needs, not the students’. Permalink 12:53 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@AndrewNoymer Born #OTD, 5 March 1938. David A. Freedman (d. 2008). A major figure in statistical science from the 1960s to the first decade of this century. And a wonderful PhD mentor to me. A major inspiration in my professional life. @philipbstark @nntaleb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_A._Freedman   Permalink 12:22 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Businessman: “Almost half my income comes from one client. I need to markedly increase my business”. Answer: “If you markedly increase your business, you will do well, but half your income will still come from one client. Another client”. #SelfSimilarity #PowerLaws Permalink 10:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@Jon__air They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns). – Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 7:43 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Two solutions so far, the second is more elegant. pic.twitter.com/KGL4vVyMre Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zy2TsepKCP Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mathematical pushups dujour (Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine) pic.twitter.com/90eOU5LQzU Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychology has cranks propagandists like @SteveStuWill who: + Keep posting seemingly junk statistics that fail under scrutiny (e.g. IQ doesn’t correlate to income >40K- even at low IQ!) + Keep posing as arbiters of “pseudoscience — while psychology is largely pseudoscience. https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1102432917714685952   Permalink 3:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:36 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Greeeeat news from Lebanon: these 5 women are the pilots for the Lebanese airline. (Though it is misnamed M-E Airlines rather than what it should be, East-Mediterranean Airlines or, best, “Med Air”). pic.twitter.com/2ju0rsUDeG Permalink 1:01 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends, how about this probability-driven definition of complex systems before delving into FRACTAL LOCALISM? @yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/X5qyOHop70 Permalink 11:59 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nickgillespie Yes! @RandPaul is voting against Trump’s emergency declaration. What about @SenMikeLee? @tedcruz? @marcorubio? @CoryGardner? @BenSasse? @PatToomey? This is YOUR moment to stand up for constitutional government. Principle over party! http://reason.com/blog/2019/03/03/rand-paul-will-vote-against-trump-emerge   @EricBoehm87 @reason Permalink 11:45 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The only way you can “convince” rentseekers [bankers/academicobureaucrats] is showing them that it is in their own INTERESTS to change their mind. When against their interests, make it painful for them by 1) convincing OTHERS, 2) continuously exposing, 3) humiliating them Permalink 7:23 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@SimonDeDeo There is no such thing as a un-biased test for pattern recognition ability. (Literally, and for the same reason that Komolgorov complexity is uncomputable.) IQ tests the ability to know what the academic bureaucrat test thinks a pattern is. https://twitter.com/RustedOak/status/1102220743671271427   Permalink 7:14 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am very dumb without #SkinintheGame Some people have an energy filter. pic.twitter.com/IqY74S9nvh Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A- As I keep saying there is too high variance in IQ tests FOR THE SAME person. To include it statistically it propagates the noise in other links IQ-real worls (already too noisy). B- @SimonDeDeo also finds elsewhere that you can RAISE non-nerdish people’s IQ by offering them $. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1101889756139540481   Permalink 4:08 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@amconmag Saudi and Emirati lobbyists really don’t want the war in Yemen to end: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/can-these-senators-prevail-over-uae-saudi-lobby-for-war/   Permalink 4:00 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Any bio of Seneca will be written by a library rat who writes biographies hence can’t get people of action. Just read Seneca. https://twitter.com/ckard001/status/1101940887893016576   Permalink 2:41 PM – 2 Mar 2019

@nntaleb We did not break the mafia by being “kind” and convincing. In the presence of rent seeking, you break by breaking. https://twitter.com/brainpicker/status/1101905770466234368   Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Mar 2019

@TulsiGabbard Tulsi talks truth on wars #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com/3ad7VJySZb Permalink 1:27 PM – 1 Mar 2019

@BarbarianCap surprised no one has cc:ed @nntaleb on this comment from a Med Turk finding out he is 80% Greek DNA https://twitter.com/CursedBalkanYT/status/1100117821420437504   Permalink 9:11 PM – 28 Feb 2019

@threadreaderapp Hello, the unroll you asked for: Thread by @BenjaminGJW: “THREAD: Understanding Fractal Localism. Coined by @nntaleb, Fractal Localism is a solution Taleb gives to rising complex []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1101173932919525382.html   Have a good day. Permalink 10:49 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@BenjaminGJW @nntaleb also asks questions more thoroughly in the article this thread is based on. If you’ve made it thus far, I recommend you read it, as it futher expands on this summary I have done. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 9:54 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@ggreenwald Does US media generally now acknowledge: * Michael Cohen was never in Prague; * Trump never directly told Cohen to lie to Congress; * Cohen has no knowledge of any blackmail material Kremlin has over Trump * Cohen knows of no collusion evidence Can we now agree on these facts? Permalink 4:18 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Mr Pinker, @sapinker, does revealing satires about my work except you from answering @DrCirillo and I on the technical flaws in your book & how you manage to misrepresent Richardson’s research? It is NOT going to go away. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1100775802952708097   Permalink 10:28 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@Marcellenassif Studying the conjugation of verb to Write (ktb) in Phoenician. Fascinating pic.twitter.com/Ix3iPhscOr Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “Imperceptibly, time introduces and establishes abuses in the best institutions.” Necker. Which justifies an expiration time for institutions. pic.twitter.com/eLNPaBGMsu Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Logically, since India has ~10 times the GDP of Pakistan, not counting the latter’s yuuuge financial difficulties, and, in the presence of nuclear capabilities, there should be no war. However… https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/1100658657765683200   Permalink 12:56 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:47 PM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb So I run away from CNN and their lunatic conspiracies and I am now having drinks with friends in Moscow… what! CNN! No place to hide. pic.twitter.com/ukylOCImcz Permalink 11:34 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@salilstatistics Taleb: “..pple like @SteveStuWill try to hoodwink you w ‘evidence’ ‘statistics’ & ‘genetics'” And he poorly use Pearson’s correlation (Table 1), even as he confesses normality is violated: “3.4.. statistic is overly sensitive when observed variables are non-normally distributed” Permalink 6:05 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And this shows why you can no longer say “correlation” as it has NO meaning under nonlinearities. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This thread explains HOW pple like Steve Stewart-Williams try to hoodwink you with “evidence”, “statistics”, and “genetics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1100149502500061185   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb East Med/Anatolia/Zagros/Georgia: those who eat the same share the same genes, even when languages differ. Istanbul airport pic.twitter.com/FpbKMgWPhu Permalink 2:33 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- For wages, IQ is often an entry hurdle (via proxies) and needs to be cleaned up for circularity. Yet…. above 60K there is NO correlation between wages and IQ! pic.twitter.com/kDqgtBySVe Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Zagorski 2007, she is citing. And that’s what it shows. “If you are not a total idiot, IQ does not correlate to how rich you will get” is a more appropriate title. Psychologists are both ignorants and frauds, not a good combination. pic.twitter.com/WNROEKbU4s Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No. This is IGNORANT. She is not citing the study but indirectly Zagorski 2017 “Do you have to be smart to be rich?” 1- It ignores noise (yuuuge here). For any practical purposes it is random. Next graph https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1099914389312794625   Permalink 1:30 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@Decafquest O the http://academia.edu   spams. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK”>  pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@hugowiz “In short, every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #quote #freedom #employees pic.twitter.com/xaggbhP14e Permalink 8:15 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A summary of the total result: How counterintuitively with p>½ one is off the hook. Note the distribution takes only even values for odd steps and vice versa. @bilayerguy pic.twitter.com/rq8RIamQ4Z Permalink 5:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have no idea what they are talking about when they discuss “time preferences”. Their “biases” come from not getting the math. Psych = BS. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/w3N4TC3eWn Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@JoshHochschild Anyone interested in: Subsidiarity Distributism Devolution Federalism Needs to read @nntaleb on “fractal localism”: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099952453011816450   Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Snow in Northern Phoenicia this morning. pic.twitter.com/nsFArLZw55 Permalink 4:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Pamphlet on Fractal Localism is developing online…. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 12:41 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Journalists like Nir Rosen should not be dictating norms to Syrians–they can’t get complexity, localism, interractions and drown in big words such as “inclusive”, “assimilation”,”racism”, etc. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1071383862134095874   Permalink 12:11 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MONTE CARLO verification. It works! Survival probability is indeed binary: Lindy above >½. pic.twitter.com/PftGdSEPsn Permalink 3:11 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:53 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is turning out that psychology is indeed the mother of all pseudosciences. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1099791858572713984   Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@cRRonycler For the nitpickers, mentally substitute ‘education’ with ‘education industry’, which is what Taleb means. Permalink 1:42 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Full of nonense: Nir Rosen recites BS by @josephinequinn abt “Phoenician Identity”, plots a racist Syrian identity vs the “inclusive” Arab identity from AUB 1860 historical fraud. Why isn’t a Mediterranean identity (for Syria-Turkey-Caucasus-Zagros) inclusive? He needs training. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1098222665272360960   Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb She does not get it. Education is NOT about learning math. Education is about employing tenured professors, administrators, fund raisers, and, most of all, enriching contractors. https://twitter.com/PardesSeleh/status/1098682386802532352   Permalink 7:11 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb That some detenured (or so) academic became a truck driver may indicate some political prejudice; but it certainly proves that some increasingly larger sections of academia are just unskilled labor. It also proves that BS vending cannot be easily done in the private sector. Permalink 3:30 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reverse. All real life risk takers worry about tails/ergodicity. Unlike academixs. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/davopp/status/1099621494299258880   Permalink 3:12 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The problem with fortune-cookie-brained @Ptetlock is insisting on spreading the wrong notion of #SKininthegame to fit his schtick: it is not about incentives. To repeat: it is a selection mechanism, filtering, something called Darwinian. @bryan_caplan https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1098604763707572225   Permalink 1:28 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/qMbEr7cmX2 Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Quick answer using the Normal Approximation which effectively captures long term behavior & limits: simply (unless I made an error somewhere), with a probability of success >½, you can move away from the barrier and never hit (Lindy). pic.twitter.com/cwexzi5Dge Permalink 4:14 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the game is, simply, filtering. https://twitter.com/sebpeekster/status/1099429467787808769   Permalink 2:36 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason this problem is beautiful because, while the answer can be instant (via handwaving), time to ruin is exactly the Lindy problem. Will post a Lindy solution. For the moment, look up the reflection principle (see Dynamic Heding) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflection_principle_(Wiener_process)   https://twitter.com/bilayerguy/status/1098926919402311680   Permalink 8:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@ektrit I owe to Taleb’s flaneuring for discovering that practical Orthodoxy had become just pagan style following of rituals. 25 years practising orthodox, trained by Athos monks and US missionaries, I noticed that only 5 years ago when I read Taleb. I was shocked. Permalink 8:18 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@cryptofun69 The Russian roulette and upside vs downside sounds straight from @nntaleb https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1099306171960303617   Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR / GEOMETRY You can express ALL nonlinear functions (for machine learning and other applications) using summs of call options, calibrated via the arc tangent of the slope. pic.twitter.com/PIvkyuwi4z Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@PhiloCrocodile Up to the age of 25, you read wholesale & in a mercenary way, to “acquire” a possession, to build a “literary culture”… After 25, you lose your hang-up and start re-reading –and it is precisely what you re-read that reveals your literary soul, what you like. – @nntaleb Permalink 1:58 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “With novelists, names and dates are wrong, the rest is true. With historians, names and dates are correct, the rest is false.” https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books   Permalink 1:01 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@dwnhogendoorn Remember: academics are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Feb 2019

@ArgaizR Just like IQ. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/mededpgh/status/1098964433882284032   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@nntaleb I despise Edward Said Permalink 1:34 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@oldlevantine Sounds like those who say “never mind that #EdwardSaid was a malignant charlatan,” that “his #Orientalism was a sordid work of fakeries, distortions, omissions and fabrications.. What matters is that he instigated a debate on the West’s pernicious renderings of the East.” Really? https://twitter.com/Jeff_Jacoby/status/1098763817776021506   Permalink 6:12 PM – 21 Feb 2019

@mikeandallie retweeting this so that I can come back to what I’m guessing will be a really interesting thread, and also because studying higher dimensional cubes is actually a really fun project for kids! https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1098663374412427264   Permalink 11:20 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Peter Francopan ⁦@peterfrankopan⁩ in the British Museum with his son. Peter can smell the silk roads across history. pic.twitter.com/qDIe5WoRfU Permalink 9:07 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can change the mind of someone who says “no”; never the minds of those who say nothing. Permalink 4:44 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@sergisoliva «Si el mundo se quedara sin fontaneros, los echaríamos de menos de inmediato. Pero si los presuntos expertos [burócratas, politólogos, etc.] desaparecieran, nadie les echaría de menos… salvo sus madres.» @nntaleb en @Papel_EM https://www.elmundo.es/papel/lideres/2019/02/21/5c6af6f721efa0fb378b46ea.html   @EdicionesPaidos Permalink 1:25 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@estimadapaloma «Si desaparecieran los expertos, sólo los echarían de menos sus madres». Nassim Nicholas Taleb [@nntaleb] entrevistado por @gonzalosuarez Vía @Elmundo #JugarselaPiel @EdicionesPaidos http://ow.ly/xv5v30nMqfg   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM”>  pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM Permalink 1:14 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Illuminated books are #Lindy. The main motivation to write a math book (and start a math publishing house to avoid writing on other people’s terms) is to do illuminated books! pic.twitter.com/AQtsb7xxrp Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 He is telling the truth in this case. Btw, I am not not have been a fan of Putin, but when you here the truth, acknowledge it. https://twitter.com/ml_maria_/status/1098180561275940866   Permalink 3:55 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/3K7q4gOUgz Permalink 3:17 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Being a good “forecaster” is meaningless in getting a good P/L. Where I show that 50 y of “expert calibration” research in psychology (decision th) is BS. Like most psychology (IQ< mental biases, Nudgeboy @Richard_Thaler’s work…) Followup on @juliagalef ‘s poll #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/8taEmcrWxM Permalink 3:12 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I learned that you can be interviewed by the New York Times for your obituary. This is thorough fact checking. pic.twitter.com/FBjn0TsXIG Permalink 7:40 AM – 19 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Was it Stefan Molyneux? Did he mention something about IQ? https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1097602461639081986   Permalink 5:52 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@garyruskin With #Monsanto and #Glyphosate on the Run, @AAAS Revokes Award to Scientists Whose Studies Led to Ban on Weedkiller in Sri Lanka and Other Countries. Via @CorpCrimeReport http://bit.ly/2X99r30   “Is corporate corruption eating at the heart of American science?” Permalink 12:20 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Οι ιδέες στο βιβλίο SKIN IN THE GAME εκφράζονται σε blurbs pic.twitter.com/2mtefX4egt Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Darb3shtar είναι ένα προάστιο του Amioun. Τα σταφύλια και το κρασί ανήκουν στο Amioun! Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Hayek #individuality #equality pic.twitter.com/j3YVRDKPMK Permalink 5:39 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@RalphNader See: The Democratic National Committee has voted down a ban on corporate PAC donations https://www.vox.com/2019/2/16/18226344/democratic-national-committee-corporate-pac-donations-tom-perez   via @voxdotcom Permalink 3:42 PM – 17 Feb 2019

@FattestFatTony “It’s much easier to macro BS than it is to micro BS.” -@nntaleb Translation: Ya can’t fool the neighborhood… #localism https://twitter.com/SusanGroff1/status/1097172965962051584   Permalink 8:43 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb @dottorpax gave me the idea that elite French cuisine was a top-down concept for the King, the court and the aristocracy; not so in Italy. https://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/1097162157102452736   Permalink 8:28 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, no, no, no, no !!! Economic decentralization ≠ military decentralization, something the Ottomans (and today’s Chinese) understood very, very well. Aleppo & Homs were 10 times richer (sic) than today (relative to Western Europe) before the Baath centralization policies. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1097126545049686016   Permalink 7:08 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Someone observed about #RWRI that it’s the only lecture she has attended with 3-6 instructors sitting upfront like a governing committee, in continuous disputation. I managed to get my points across by sending Raphael on fake emergencies to get him out of the room. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1097144536646762496   Permalink 6:57 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of “b**llshitter” isn’t someone called “truthful” but someone called “arrogant”. Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It seems that the sophistication of French cuisine arose from the need to mask the lack of freshness of the ingredients –much as perfume came from the need to compensate for bad hygiene. In contrast, Italian and East Med cuisines make salient the freshness of the ingredients. Permalink 5:03 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@GrayConnolly Tucker Carlson’s piece on America’s “war peddlers” is excellent https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-are-these-professional-war-peddlers-still-around-tucker-carlson-max-boot-bill-kristol/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb In the Bronx, if a restrnt has an Italian name (like Angelo’s, Carlo’s) odds it is operated by Albanians. Italian restrnts are likely to be called “Jim’s steakhouse”… Restrnts called “Lebanese” are owned by Syrians. Real Lebanese go by “Mediterranean” or “Phoenician” cuisine. Permalink 5:58 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hope this becomes a trend… A change in the narrative as the electorate doesn’t like war. https://twitter.com/da_stockman/status/1096924240215867392   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The future #RWRI location; the classroom has a direct view of the famous sidewalk where Paul Castellano was wacked by John Gotti’s operative Sammy The Bull. pic.twitter.com/b7o0ZcW47A Permalink 10:14 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My book puts some rigor behind the horrible @juliagalef flaw in rankings of “experts” based on “calibration” & thinking that one can get expectation error VIA probability error. Aside from the fact that, to add insult to injury, she put me in the sale list as @SamHarrisOrg . pic.twitter.com/0kAbEHd3wT Permalink 7:21 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The key is that estimation errors for probabilities are ALWAYS thin- tailed even for Fat-tailed variables. Those for expectation will be fat tailed for fat tailed variables. Which is why @juliagalef rankings of “experts” is an insult to both probability and the real world. Permalink 7:00 PM – 15 Feb 2019

@vtchakarova In life, you’re either the borrower or borrowee; the creditor or creditee; the f*cker or the f*ckee. Make sure that you’re not the f*ckee by being convex & eliminating the risk of ruin. – @nntaleb #RWRI 10, Day 5 Permalink 10:51 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri Finally convinced someone with #SkinInTheGame to buy #Bitcoin…socks. #RWRI 10. pic.twitter.com/MgKUyVXdmN Permalink 9:57 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@101010Lund If you can be squeezed, assume you will be. It’s only a matter of time. #RWRI Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@julioccneto “machine learning discovered that you can decompose a payoff with options of different strikes”. Spectacular brainstorming session with @nntaleb at #RWRI 10 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is “more likely to go up”, yet is very heavily short. Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter. Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space. Survival=calibration. Permalink 6:00 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BS vendor is BS vendor whether you agree or not “on this point” https://twitter.com/EmmettBeech/status/1096406989414879232   Permalink 5:56 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Today #RWRI 10, we discuss: How the “calibration” ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong 1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won’t survive, option traders can be right ~1% #ergodicity Permalink 5:55 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Correction: shd be “under absence of correlation” (uncorrelated vs independent) Permalink 5:47 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri You can’t trust regulation as post-retirement bureaucrats get highly paid jobs in the same industry who you helped while in Govt. @nntaleb #RWRI 10 #ImplicitBribe Permalink 1:25 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The message is that It is a very very bad idea to be both evil and stupid. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1096093772830658561   Permalink 10:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Ilhan Omar Smacks Down Elliott Abrams In Front Of Everybody http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/february/14/ilhan-omar-smacks-down-elliott-abrams-in-front-of-everybody/   Permalink 10:03 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 @normonics @nntaleb As I said, she is becoming more interesting and pay attention to who attacks her… https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1096094247336452103   Permalink 9:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@zerohedge Every Queens real estate broker right now pic.twitter.com/FYKZSe5WT2 Permalink 8:52 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb DAY 4 RWRI 10 Andrea Fontanari asking: Where is the tail? #RWRI pic.twitter.com/AJgj0NJ8b1 Permalink 6:28 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This is EXACTLY why we shd never conflate independence and zero correlation. Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@keithbensons Unless you were a sucker, but then recovered from being a sucker(iatrogenics), that’s an even yuuuuger edge. “Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825241185090428928   Permalink 5:55 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Not being a sucker is also a yuuuuuge edge. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1095830320543420417   Permalink 3:56 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Something I learned this morning: A joint fat-tailed distribution under independence is NOT a product of densities –to preserve ellipticality and “stability” of the Stable Distribution. pic.twitter.com/SBC9rvoFPV Permalink 3:50 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@normonics I never fail to regret spending time and energy engaging the “verbagiastic” (h/t @nntaleb for the term) Permalink 12:53 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI-10: A French mathematician trying to measure the tape using the room. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 12:15 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A fight erupted at RWRI-10. Raphael Douady measuring in “meters”. “This is America, we don’t use the f*** metric system”. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 11:08 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@sergesapiens #RWRI #10 with @nntaleb follows a power law: if you assume that the next day can’t get better you’re likely to be surprised! Permalink 10:38 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI 10 (day 3) Arié Haziza showing how convex costs of catastrophes are: there is a severe nonlinearity as you pay higher and higher prices for materials during reconstruction. Twice the severity => 2.5-4 times the economic costs. pic.twitter.com/xDDiyUl3M0 Permalink 8:42 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer, a comment on a paper by Maestro Spyros Makridakis @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/iaHPNHMri8 Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@mhuckabee1 New personal best today: 275 lbs deadlift x 3 reps. I’ll hit 300 soon. @nntaleb you inspired me! Permalink 4:36 PM – 12 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From “Lebanon” to “Phoenicia”… https://twitter.com/ptashny/status/1095401651840667649   Permalink 11:34 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@TheSuperbubble “commerce brings peace” — @nntaleb https://twitter.com/LarsSchall/status/1095292013321351168   Permalink 4:37 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@paulportesi Lindy. Physical books are engrained with the spirit of life when one holds them. Antilibrary too. @nntaleb 92 percent of students prefer print books, new study shows https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/print-textbooks-vs-ebooks_us_56ba4091e4b0b40245c4534e?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004   Permalink 4:38 PM – 11 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #IQ @charlesmurray #hayek pic.twitter.com/vfsFhq0Wxr Permalink 7:37 AM – 11 Feb 2019

@TheCalmPeople Quote of the day “my mood, my sadness my bouts of anxiety, are a second source of intelligence – perhaps even the first source.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb #Stress #ConflictManagement #AngerManagement #StressManagement #Happiness #MentalHealthMatters pic.twitter.com/Wf295oesYC Permalink 12:40 PM – 10 Feb 2019

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

Keynes, AOC, Bezos, Saudi Barbaria, Nat. Enquirer, Ghosn, IQ, alarm clocks, tawking, Peterson-Golden Rice, Lebanon, Nationalism, Pinker, Kelton,

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Imbecilic Keynesianisticists find *ad hoc* arguments to argue deficits don’t cause inflation. The focus is on “foreign debt”. There are tons of counteramples, including close to me the Lebanese devaluation (rate frm 3/$ -> 1500) that ruined my grandfather https://twitter.com/msilva12000/status/1094644393854844929   Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Industrious BS producing psychologists have been using correlation/regression for 100 years like parrots without trying to figure out what it means intuitively. They can’t even define it. Correlation (unlike mut information) is randomly subadditive or superadditive! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 8:19 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@NeutralTesla And Khashoggi died as the result of a fistfight. Saudi Arabia says has ‘nothing to do’ with Bezos-AMI dispute https://reut.rs/2GjiNnI   @nntaleb Permalink 8:16 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Announcement: Deborah Mayo @learnfromerror has a seminar on the philosophy of statistics. She also has a new book on the subject. Comments to come. pic.twitter.com/AXmhra36mu Permalink 8:12 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From POPPER to FAT TONY *BS detection*, *via negativa*, *not being a sucker*, & asymmetric epistemology are rarely accepted as modi operandi across disciplines. BS detection is the engine of 1) epistemology/science for Popper 2) theology for Orthodoxy 3) business for Fat Tony https://twitter.com/brentdsummers/status/1094561610964684801   Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Feb 2019

@nntaleb …and risk. Please do not give me Keynes as counterexample as he proved to be clueless about risk, but wasn’t as intellectually defective as today’s Keynesians. Permalink 4:29 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Weimar Republic Zimbabwe, Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina Keynesian Economics is proving to be the refuge of people devoid of 1) common sense, 2) business acumen, 3) scientific rigor 4) elementary intellectual abilities, 4) historical & other erudition, 5) curiosity … https://twitter.com/StephanieKelton/status/1093575469440618496   Permalink 4:01 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason social science calls itself a “science” is because of statistics. And their statistics are practically BS everywhere. I mean, really, everywhere. https://twitter.com/BeagleOnALeash/status/1094345432875089922   Permalink 1:58 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@keithbensons @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HPpx2IWVb8 Permalink 1:02 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Unpublished pictures are worth a lot more than published ones. #NationalEnquirer #UmbertoEcosLibrary Permalink 12:54 PM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR The phenomenon known as “regression to the mean” is largely a social science illusion. It requires a stable & *known* mean, constant standard deviation, a thin-tailed distribution, & homogeneous cohorts. Permalink 11:52 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is easiest to do the most when you have nothing to do. Permalink 10:09 AM – 9 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The maximum success is reached when you are never busy. https://twitter.com/extrachelle/status/1093857798612545538   Permalink 6:14 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@yzilber Gawker were saints Vs Nat Etq. Nate Enq are mafia Gawker were just crude thugs misbehaving Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What Occasio is saying on lobby funding is right, healthy, & perfectly compatible with libertarianism/localism. These distortions/hijacking of representation are the product of a centralized system. Let us make sure these ideas of sound governance are not marketed as “socialist”. https://twitter.com/JKCorden/status/1093634176845139968   Permalink 9:26 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas I don’t think Dunning Krueger is real or Lindy https://twitter.com/ddelruss/status/1093909071336562688   Permalink 8:48 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The most unsettling part of the @JeffBezos story is the very high possibility that Saudi Arabia is blackmailing the current U.S. president. Even in the case of Bezos, blackmailing on behalf of a foreign government has some legal consequences. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093845565333475329   Permalink 7:02 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man “You can’t eat Sharpe ratios.” @Bloomberg @ErikSchatzker https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1086321274522165248   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1093515067600056320   Permalink 6:59 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” 2- I block idiots. Like immediately. Nothing personal. Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WARNING: Noah Smith @Noahpinion has a long history of commenting on papers & books he didn’t read. Yet how come such a fraud still exists? Only because he represents a certain socialist line? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1093863981478019072   Permalink 5:49 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MORAL OF THE STORY: – If Saudi Barbaria & the Nat. Enquirer can explicitly blackmail the richest person in the most powerful country, where does it leave the rest of us? – Remember we were saved from Gawker that was in the business of ruining the lives of college students. https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1093643321732464646   Permalink 4:14 AM – 8 Feb 2019

@nntalebbot “Regular minds find similarities in stories (and situations); finer minds detect differences.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@Safaitic I will be giving a lecture at ISAW ( http://isaw.nyu.edu/  ) on March 29-30 at a workshop on the Nessana Papyri. I imagine it will be open to the public so please join us and hear about the trilingual language situation of the town in the 6th c. CE. Permalink 12:10 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- (Ghosn) I know numerous billionaires; I’ve met many CEOs. Billionaires tend to live as if they were CEOs; CEOs tend to live as if they were billionaires. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Ghosn fell prey to the “show me the man, I will find you a crime”. Someone with enemies should be obsessive about creating a web a “plausible deniability” ahead of time. You need to stay at least one step ahead of your enemies, in France two steps, and in Japan, three. Permalink 9:38 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@NonMeek A good rule of thumb is to focus on what people do instead of what they say. #NOskininthegame = #BS pic.twitter.com/Qp3L9kb8WI Permalink 7:48 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM CARLOS GHOSN? (Thread) Ghosn is a very competent man but 1- One cannot behave like Henry Ford or Louis XIV if one is getting a salary/under corporate bondage. Worse: one is NEVER free when getting a salary. Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Universa’s Spitznagel on Fed Policy, Hedge Funds and Insuring Market Risk https://youtu.be/xiBjBkXBHLw   via @YouTube Permalink 6:21 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-06/nietsche-optimizing-risk-and-embracing-disasters   #blackswanman #theblackswanman @zerohedge #Nietzsche #AmorFati ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J”>  pic.twitter.com/Kuy83MZ79J Permalink 6:17 AM – 7 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The IQ thingy by psychologists/BS vendors is drawing me back to the problem of non-elipticality of distributions. Correlation is much harder to work with than you think. (from my next book) pic.twitter.com/k2R1Z86dHd Permalink 1:54 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any positive advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. (corrected to fix the meta-problem). Permalink 1:26 PM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Finally figured out. “IQ” doesn’t test for intelligence; rather how likely a person is likely to become a state-solution loving socialist. Permalink 11:01 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@normonics genetics is good for sorting out history, as @nntaleb is doing, but is terrible for making predictions or describing how macroscopic behaviors and properties unfold from genetics, given our current knowledge and abilities. Permalink 8:44 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@thackerpd Nina Federoff is the former President of AAAS. She is now an advisor to a law firm that lobbies for the agrochemical industry and a critic of #GMO reporting “Flacking for GMOs: How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media—and Discourages Criticism” https://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/   Permalink 7:57 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Those who aren’t in it for the money won’t tell you that they aren’t in it for the money. Permalink 7:48 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school professor. Permalink 7:15 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who has to work for a living. Permalink 7:03 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2nd Lecture at Tandon on probability, showed how under some conditions (conservation) Max Entropy leads to the Gaussian. Adding the derivations to my book. pic.twitter.com/I6y85F8Bsi Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hayda tzwir térikhé. L-lbnénéné (w l mashr2é/néoKn3ané) lghétna l2mm. Permalink 4:55 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@nntaleb An indicator of freedom and bondage: how often did you have to use an alarm clock this month? Permalink 4:52 AM – 6 Feb 2019

@LindyEffect Erasmus pic.twitter.com/x98fdqwYyZ Permalink 6:41 PM – 5 Feb 2019

@sentantiq Tonight Dani Bostick will be live tweeting the State of the Union Address in Latin. Look out for @danibostick and the hashtag #LatinSOTU https://sententiaeantiquae.com/2019/02/05/the-state-of-our-union-in-latin/   Permalink 8:58 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@normonics Quick GMO complexity lesson: A central challenge in complexity studies is understanding how microscopic properties and behaviors flow upwards in scale and produce macroscopic behaviors It turns out this is a VERY hard problem Permalink 8:47 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Removed the Abstract (it was a teaser before submission to a journal)… Will repost in a few. Permalink 6:37 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My contribution to the problem is here https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1085879808624607232   Permalink 5:22 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@MaxAbrahms New report adds even more evidence that American weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gone to Al Qaeda and its friends in Yemen. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/02/middleeast/yemen-lost-us-arms/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 5 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is dishonest to claim that the rich of yesterday are the same as those of today. Ergodicity https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 8:37 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@EconTalker This is dishonest. Not the same people in those groups every year. Your picture and your tweet make it seem otherwise. It’s not a zero-sum game and every serious economist knows it. You should too. https://medium.com/@russroberts/do-the-rich-capture-all-the-gains-from-economic-growth-c96d93101f9c   https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1092397923009204224   Permalink 8:19 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: RATIONALITY John 1،1:Ἐν ἀρχῇ ἦν ὁ λόγος, mistransl. “in the beginning was the verb” shd بع “First, there is reasoning”. The Peshita, uses “Béréshit (for beginning, shd be “principally”) MLL for verb =”abilitlity to speak” λόγος= منطق= מלל NOT كلمة #Lindy pic.twitter.com/8Tc9CLXHWO Permalink 6:12 AM – 4 Feb 2019

@zerohedge The term “neoliberal warmongers” is thus born https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1092245449304612869   Permalink 6:53 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb WHAT I LEARNED IN 2019 I thought that correlation was a bad measure because super-additive [relu/sigmoids] rho[a+b]>rho[a]+rho[b]. Turns out it is also sub-additive [exponential]. In other words, there are very very very narrow conditions where one can safely use correlation. Permalink 6:32 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And of course Patrick Moore whose dangerous, dishonest (& exploitative) arguments psychologist @jordanbPeterson was diffusing is a well identified shill for glyphosate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovKw6YjqSfM   Permalink 3:31 PM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The point is not if someone is right or wrong. It is if someone is a bullshitter, tawking about stuff he doesn’t know nothing about or giving you verbalistic arguments that sound good. He will be a bullshitter EVEN if he later turns out to be right. https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1092138559283384320   Permalink 11:56 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When you are, say, a physicist, you don’t argue abt quantum mechanics w/an astrologer for the sake of “listening to all sides”. I just block people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom I DO NOT want to have an exchange because you DO NOT learn/advance from bullshit. Gabish? Permalink 11:05 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Actually it is not just virtue signaling but Peterson’s DISGUSTING use of appeal to pity or some FAKE humanitarianism “because blindness” to justify selling speculative options in place of less lucrative more robust ones. Similar to pedophrasty. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 10:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb OUR PRECAUTIONARY PPLE WITH RESPECT TO GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@olivierglinec Avez vous lu cela: https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/nicolas-hulot-monsanto-a-demande-a-une-officine-belge-de-soccuper-de-ma-reputation-3850433   Permalink 10:02 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb There are antecedents https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1092119956597235717   Permalink 9:58 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I block @JordanbPeterson for violation of intellectual integrity/virtue signaling. pic.twitter.com/8HDRPXmtdZ Permalink 9:48 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb These tweets explain that if you have a nonlinear function, say IQ vs performance, then “correlation” is tooooootally meaningless mathematically, & multidimensional “factors” are even worse. This is of some relevance for machine learning with the ReLu function. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1091820909281923073   Permalink 8:18 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb ANSWER: found a counterexample f(x)=Exp[x]. Overall correlation is always lower (up to ~40%) than that of any subsample! MORAL: Use psychometrics/psychology books for winter fuel as many citizens have difficulties with their heating bills. pic.twitter.com/FctDnzdLT1 Permalink 6:50 AM – 3 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/xAcAhnGg8R Permalink 2:11 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE INEQUALITY DU JOUR pic.twitter.com/vaCY0gAlnV Permalink 2:09 PM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Palestinians are dominated by J1 pic.twitter.com/AlxfmkVmPQ Permalink 10:53 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb When people makes public apologies and acts of contrition, they are mostly sorry that they were caught. Permalink 6:31 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@Monsantobuster Falkenstein spent 21 years smearing Taleb with lies and strawman. Is he so stupid as not to realize he can get caught? http://fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34″>  pic.twitter.com/Gxv6JJdH34 Permalink 5:02 AM – 2 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lamma tfshal ma7ada byid3amak mitl ahl blédak w lamma tnja7 ma7ada byi7sadak w bkhazwék fik mitl ibn baladak Permalink 7:04 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@SituationO Lebanon’s new government has 4 female ministers: – @rayaelhassan ,(Interior), Future Movement – @violetteksafadi ,(Woman affairs), Future Movement – @may_chidiac ,(Administrative reform), Lebanese Forces – @NadaBoustani ,(Energy), Free Patriotic Movement Congrats! pic.twitter.com/3PahUeWcX8 Permalink 2:10 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb What is working in Lebanon is that it doesn’t have two factions, but at least three. Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@yaneerbaryam Switzerland is a country of peace, stability & prosperity. Our analysis shows that peace doesn’t depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well-defined topographical & political boundaries separating groups @arutherfordium @GardMurray @future_andi https://necsi-global.org/good-fences-the-importance-of-setting-boundaries-for-peaceful-coexistence/?rq=switzerland   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM”>  pic.twitter.com/5ZTpEvFYlM Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 4 women in Lebanese government. The rest is details. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1091414421732249601   Permalink 12:09 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Fractal Localism pic.twitter.com/kY2zjrzDLD Permalink 12:02 PM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BARBARIAN SUPREMACISM From now on, you can call “White” supremacists BARBARIAN SUPREMACISTS Northrn Europe does not have a monopoly on Caucasian. (Note I permanently blocked @RazibKhan as he could not substantiate what “flaws” he claimed in our GMO risk paper, hence his watch) pic.twitter.com/zdX8rsH5U3 Permalink 9:15 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb If my enemies knew me better they’d hate me even more. #BedofProcrustes https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1091288735721967616   Permalink 8:02 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can easily have a nation-state with 2, even 4 languages (Belgium, Switzerland), but you can’t easily have a nation-state with 2 religions. #Localism Permalink 8:01 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@booksoftitans The Bed of Procrustes by @nntaleb just $2.99 on @AmazonKindle and @AppleBooks today – https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms-ebook/dp/B004C43F9S   – https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/the-bed-of-procrustes/id420518445   Permalink 7:28 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- In other words, there exist a system where you can be a Maronite/Shiite/Armenian nationalist without imposing your preferences on others, and without others imposing their preferences on you. It’s localism. Permalink 6:14 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It was PRECISELY the removal of multiculturalism by Arabists that fucked it up. Permalink 6:06 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Nationalism is an idea that came about in the 19th C., messed up Greece/Turkey, destroyed Alexandria, Saloniki, Aleppo, Smyrna, Constantinople. French nationalism is absurd:Provencal localism is not. Now people are getting Fractal localism and City-states as a natural order. Permalink 6:05 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM/LEBANON Maronites are obsessed w/Lebanese Nationalism=Maronite homeland; don’t consider us the Rhum (Greek Orthodox) minority (~5%) as part of their ethnos: we are too Mediterraneanists/Universalists w/foreign allegiances. Hence a Swiss-style bottom-up Localism. https://twitter.com/sarkis_charles/status/1091241380268130304   Permalink 5:55 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Closed for RWRI-10. We gave 20 full and partial scholarships in total for RWRI-10. Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@oliviergay Same with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. On his interrogation on hiding non-existing WMD: “Western governments and their intelligence agencies had failed to realize that Saddam was more fearful of attack by Iran than by the US.” https://twitter.com/RidT/status/1077944842896982016   Permalink 5:07 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #9: https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1087681642599276545   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom #1 https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1088339650333294594   Permalink 1:49 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@ole_b_peters Very nice. This precise mathematical error is all over economics. Do something invalid with a limit or an infinity and claim whatever you want. When you point out such an error, you’re told economic theories don’t have to be mathematically correct, they just have to sound smart. https://twitter.com/Undercoverhist/status/1075912850269487104   Permalink 1:11 AM – 1 Feb 2019

@PaulSkallas Imagine having this “genetic intelligence test” and not being rich https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1091038511233421313   Permalink 2:02 PM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT We have a 100% scholarship left for RWRI-10 for a woman, preferably Syrian or Venezuelan, or from a troubled part of the planet, preferably a doctoral student, preferably a nonpsychologist. NEED TO APPLY TODAY Feb 11-15, NY. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:37 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Actually, psychometric measures best the extreme unintelligence of psychometricians. https://twitter.com/ThomasGrava/status/1091055576237395970   Permalink 11:32 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@fpontaza Chef @ArielTrodArgent had us for dinner last night and honored his Lebanese ancestry with his Lindy recipe for keppe crudo. You rarely get to experience something so great from so far away in Guatemala. We raised our glasses for @nntaleb! pic.twitter.com/9CjgNQ4pMM Permalink 11:24 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@AdibChristian Looking into using #GoogleAutoMLTranslation to create a translation engine that can process Lebnééné/NeoKanaané. Thoughts? @BLebnene https://cloud.google.com/translate/   Permalink 10:44 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 5- Something about Persia that the Trump administration is clueless: Persia obsessed Greeks, Romans, Arabs, then Ottomans for the past 2400 years. Rome was broke frm the 700 y Persian wars. Unconquered in spite of short lived fake successes: Alexander, Herakles, Arabs, etc.. Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090986235223568384   Permalink 8:08 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 4- The Ottomans also used the Byzantine administration. They even brought the Levant back into “Rome”. They also protected Orthodoxy from Catholic “Europe”… for a while. Look at the map. https://twitter.com/hzkathulhu/status/1090988564886810625   Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Something @peterfrankopan got: Ottomans didn’t give a f*** abt “Rome” since Rome itself moved closer to the wealth, the silk road, & was now Constantinople. Before wealth from the Americas the West was an economic desert. Turks shared w/Romans & Byzantines the Persian obsession. Permalink 7:10 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Turks’ anger at the Russians was that Ivan IV took the title of Tsar, “Ceasar” when the Ottomans believed that, after Mehmed, THEY were the official successors of Caesar. https://twitter.com/EALTurner/status/1090975867583557632   Permalink 6:43 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb People forget that Soliman’s predecessor 130 years before, Bayazid, proclaimed himself Sultan-r-Rum (Roman Sultan), about a century before the fall of Constantinople. Another issue about “East-West”: the Byzantine church, until the 1800s, felt “East”, operated ~1000y under Islam. https://twitter.com/RenderuntoG/status/1090810150883971073   Permalink 6:00 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Article by @xriskology seems to find it generalized… https://www.salon.com/2019/01/26/steven-pinkers-fake-enlightenment-his-book-is-full-of-misleading-claims-and-false-assertions/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Note that our bone w/Pinker @sapinker is that his citations don’t match his statistical claims. He started with a conclusion, then tried to find data to confirm it. Here his central claim is bunk. Calling me bellicose/arrogant isn’t a scientific answer. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=670117070070069017069127022113081120031047031042055074081065126024120067069003090124049107118055103025009099127064108125084119028035061021010087093100074084092109046023010095001099096093092082102029123024102008084001102122009080080028117086117113021&EXT=pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25″>  pic.twitter.com/fOR0YEye25 Permalink 4:57 AM – 31 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gaussian case: a beautiful sqrt pi function a la Sirling. pic.twitter.com/VMsG0qfoeg Permalink 1:39 PM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Exception: Mike B @MikeBloomberg… any other? Permalink 11:53 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A triangle inequality entailing partial correlation. pic.twitter.com/XlOivnHVbF Permalink 7:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/43G0ocDLcB Permalink 7:05 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb A neat theorem about the asymmetry of correlation: if downside correlation is 100% and upside correlation is 0%, total correlation will show ~90%! Moral: 1) never use the word correlation under asymmetry 2) use psychometrics textbooks for winter fuel 3) close psych departments pic.twitter.com/sdOh3P5IRC Permalink 7:03 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@rationalwalk Nikki is now in the “private sector” where she will cash in on past favors, take down payments in future favors, and end up with a 8+ figure net worth from which to plot a return to “public service”. Rinse, repeat, path to riches and power. https://twitter.com/kaylatausche/status/1090613317306122240   Permalink 6:59 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In a long career, I’ve (almost) never seen anyone get rich while employed (via bonuses/stock options, as w/bankers, CEOs, & rich slaves), & subsequently also make money on their own, in self employment. If you can’t make it on your own, it’s #rentseeking. Permalink 4:50 AM – 30 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Never ever call me a polymath. I am a probabilist. Nothing else. That’s sufficient. Please. Permalink 5:16 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@TrevMalley Nassim has a knack for getting to the real meat of the argument. These people may as well claim the Japanese as fellow whites if they’re going to use the achievements of the Ancient Mediterranean world as an argument for their grandeur Permalink 5:10 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Real squid ink smudges. pic.twitter.com/PBa0xZCgwX Permalink 4:59 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In other words, better say: “you mean Barbarian supremacists?” rather than imitate some SJW harangue. Permalink 4:52 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The way to deal with racists is to NEVER use moral arguments (they are insensitive to them). Just prove to them that their “race”… was comparatively sub-par for a very, very, very long time. Just like the current condition of “inferior” races. That, they can’t handle. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087763053515603968   Permalink 4:42 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@trishankkarthik Debate is for suckers Permalink 4:39 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Excited to find in my mailbox the book by @ErwanLeCorre from whom I’ve learned so much about natural fitness/#antifragility. pic.twitter.com/A57GM8yM9E Permalink 3:14 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb If assholes don’t find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong. Permalink 2:32 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@paulportesi Can somebody explain to me why the f*** should a utility company get bonuses? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1090352637478912002   Permalink 1:04 PM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am certain that over the past 5000 years, nobody has had to use an IQ test to choose between: surgeons, gardeners, physicists, hitmen, massage professionals, fortune tellers, spanish grammar specialists, or Swahili-to-Medieval Latin translators. https://twitter.com/fpingham/status/1090311581467058176   Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ WRAPUP These IQ psychologogs can’t answer my point abt elementary yet severe mathematical flaws w/the “IQ” measure. All I got is a downpour of BS from @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, @StuartJRitchie, @Ptetlock, the @Quillette boys “IQ”≠ Mental abilities https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=szXf0VLuQLg   Permalink 8:00 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@JoshHochschild “another—doubtless very different—Boethius” @Hannah_Cristine totally got my review of @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/m33N7XjZ3Z Permalink 6:28 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@epigraphed Two people can be using the same word, meaning different things, yet continue the conversation, which is fine for coffee, but not when making decisions, particularly policy decisions affecting others. @nntaleb https://link.medium.com/yTtEwBiiJT   Permalink 3:25 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@LePoint Laetitia Strauch-Bonart – La bataille du QI Au grand dam de nombre d’experts, l’essayiste Nassim Nicholas Taleb remet en question la fiabilité et la pertinence des tests de quotient intellectuel >> http://bit.ly/2RUE5xX   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS”>  pic.twitter.com/G7rsl3iGmS Permalink 2:14 AM – 29 Jan 2019

@TheAnnaGat That is true. I showcase my communication and problem-solving skills by not having been blocked by @nntaleb (yet) even though I have responded to him. Permalink 12:53 PM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb IQ is a scientific swindle –A brief explanation of the math https://youtu.be/szXf0VLuQLg   via @YouTube Permalink 7:50 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @ErikSchatzker @Bloomberg #VolatilityMonster pic.twitter.com/zTJPea3WAi Permalink 6:05 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@ESFLiberty #LibertyCon19 is also featured on the newest edition of Journal des Libertés! Spot us on page 150! C’est très excité You can access the publication here http://bit.ly/2sQz9vl   Register now at http://LibertyCon.net  ! @SFL_France @lawrencewr @nntaleb @tomgpalmer ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886″>  pic.twitter.com/G3MTig5886 Permalink 6:02 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@seltzer_c “Je suis pour le principe de subsidiarité qui me semble le plus efficace politiquement et économiquement. Politiquement, je suis localiste. L’individu ne doit être géré que par des gens qui vivent avec lui.” ⁦@nntaleb, ITW par ⁦@EugenieBastie⁩ http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 5:00 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 3- Another spuriousness in the neuroscience literature: Never trust any “evidence” from Neuroscience or psychobyllshutmetrics without redoing the math. We use as a standard Pinker’s deffender the charlatan @michaelshermer who pollutes intellectual life with pseudoempiricism. pic.twitter.com/CzLS41qVHa Permalink 4:39 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The answer and the Monte Carlo illustration shows how hard it is to explain that “randomness does not look random”. pic.twitter.com/ypPsnyJxNh Permalink 3:58 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ DU JOUR, around “Fooled by Randomness”. How to ferret out pseudo-empiricism (or where “empirical evidence is not empirical evidence”): What are the odds of getting a spurious “cancer cluster”? [FIRST CLASS TANDON TONIGHT] pic.twitter.com/pQnpeumSfz Permalink 3:34 AM – 28 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Ab alio expectes alteri quod feceris Permalink 7:24 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb GrecoLebanese proverb du jour: Lkalb mabi 3add khayyo (Caninas caninam non est -κυων κυνός ουχ απτεται) Permalink 7:06 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb That psychobullshit: “psychometric intelligence” is not even intelligence, but some crappy number used 1) to employ psychologists, 2) put down some race. Permalink 6:18 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb This is what nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_thaler never understood. Evolution is NOT an incentive but a FILTER. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1089675741288112128   Permalink 4:08 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/1WqDtJV4BM Permalink 12:50 PM – 27 Jan 2019

@financequant Effective tax rates across time: https://taxfoundation.org/taxes-rich-1950-not-high/   I am posting this not because I necessarily agree with all of the conclusions. The facts are that the proportion of income paid by the rich hasn’t changed as much as a naïve view of the tax rates would indicate. Permalink 11:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists don’t get PCAs under nonlinearity: if the factors correlate with any mental difficulties, the g will give the illusion of robustness WITHOUT being predictive OTS. It is easy to prove the g is a scientific swindle. ( I actually did) https://twitter.com/cfchabris/status/1089365903693762566   Permalink 11:26 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Vatican II reminds me a performance of Trovatore I attended in Chicago years ago. The singing was in English “for clarity”. I walked out 2 minutes into the opera. Conversely, Imagine the Beatles translated (and sung) into Slovenian. Permalink 11:00 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@VergilDen Taleb once tweeted when asked “If you had one thing to tell a child, what would it be?”. He replied “Time is smarter than you.” I like that. Permalink 9:22 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It is capitalism that pulled billions out of poverty. Not vapid virtue signaling. Permalink 8:51 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 8:43 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb In Fooled by Randomness: Vatican II destroyed Catholicism by translating the sacred into ordinary language. Meanwhile Judaism & Islam never debased the texts away from Hebrew and Arabic, resp. The current Bishop of Rome @Pontifex is continuing the destruction started in 1962. pic.twitter.com/gyvBHfv3Hx Permalink 8:13 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb I am so lucky 1) to be born in the Byzantine Orthodox Church, & 2) that we had a schism with the bishop of Rome in 1054. https://twitter.com/pontifex/status/1089327127277621248   Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb You can give a 99% probability that those who hate my style and find it arrogant are… psychologists or social scientists. https://twitter.com/andeanmckena/status/1089546744168415234   Permalink 7:38 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My black list doesn’t necessarily include people who have been to the Davos WEF. It includes those who have been to Davos more than once. Permalink 7:29 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The honest person isn’t the one who has never sinned. It’s the one who has never committed any sin more than once. Permalink 7:24 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@enzolamberti Reading the excellent @peterfrankopan #thesilkroads and the more I read, the more I see proofs of something @nntaleb pointed out to me: it’s wealth that creates education, not the other way round. Primum vivere… pic.twitter.com/WHc3QQA9SW Permalink 6:10 AM – 27 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler: nerds use the ruler to measure the table; Fat Tonies (and real scientists) use the table to measure the ruler. https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1089258974501756928   Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb My takeaway: people with inferior intelligence should refrain from engaging in smear campaigns. But, again, one needs to be of inferior intelligence to get into smear campaigns. Permalink 6:07 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The Davos WEF tried & failed to smear me for calling them IAND (Int’l Association of Name Droppers): head of communication Adrian Monck @amonck kept claiming I don’t reference Popper in The Black Swan (Popper, referenced 53 times, has an entire chapter). https://twitter.com/GeorgeJNasr/status/962353415715246080   Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Kind of people that I block immediately as these type of fallacious questions destroy the debate. pic.twitter.com/o24gOqWRst Permalink 5:18 AM – 26 Jan 2019

@zinarosek As part of my legal work on the Genocide against Iraqi Christians, I have a list & files on neocon warcriminals who played key role in the Genocide. John Bolton & Elliott Abrams (laughing evilly in video) are both on the list. @POTUS’ admin has hired both. pic.twitter.com/9dAUHPgO1r Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@nntaleb NOTE TO THE ALT-RIGHT: I got plenty of ethnic hatred by quack-Molyneux/Charles Murray’s crowd. I am not complaining, but for Baal’s sake, 1) I am Greek Orthodox (not Muslim) and… 2) Lebanon has no desert. It’s on the Med. So please remember: Lebanon has no desert. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/0rqo9De7Aj Permalink 5:11 PM – 25 Jan 2019

@NonMeek ”…70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the 2nd generation, and a whopping 90% by the third generation.” Shocking read for those who still believe there are safe asset classes. https://twitter.com/mebfaber/status/1088505078946787329   Permalink 12:14 AM – 25 Jan 2019

@Firsou Someone who takes no risks should not throw stones at people who have offloaded most of the initial risk to themselves. Entrepreneurs are heroes. Permalink 12:26 PM – 24 Jan 2019

@olivierglinec La bataille du QI dans le point aujourd’hui/IQ battle in the french paper Le Point pic.twitter.com/HuztqjXhIx Permalink 8:04 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@DrCirillo In studying war casualties and other historical data, you have to treat them as imprecise random observations. If you don’t, all your subsequent analyses will be flawed. cc @nntaleb Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb She is using Twitter and a computer to claim that those who invented them are rent seekers. And she, a parasite,lives from rent seeking, charities, and public funds. https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1087780034348306432   Permalink 3:17 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@EugenieBastie Mon interview avec Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb ) iconoclaste et génial auteur du “Cygne noir” et d'”Antifragile” : «La modernité hait l’incertitude, elle ne voudrait que des bons élèves» http://premium.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2019/01/24/31003-20190124ARTFIG00096-nassim-taleb-la-modernite-hait-l-incertitude-elle-ne-voudrait-que-des-bons-eleves.php   Permalink 3:16 AM – 24 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Some work on this is being done by complexity physicist @yaneerbaryam . Yaneer can you tweetstorm? https://twitter.com/otrasenda_ac/status/1088204786908852225   Permalink 3:13 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@ryanpflynn This is what happens when Nerdified Public-Health Bureacrats come up w/ a “solution” to a nerdified problem. Go play outside. @nntaleb @Mangan150 https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1088163109133578240   Permalink 12:07 PM – 23 Jan 2019

@fermatslibrary A visual proof why 1+3+5+…+(2n-1)=n² = Permalink 5:45 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Studies of the handwriting of Mozart, Einstein, or Fat Tony are nothing but fetichism & reliquiae worship passing for scholarship —residual paganistic practices in a pseudo-atheist society. And state funded, of course. https://twitter.com/britishlibrary/status/1088063054716252160   Permalink 5:35 AM – 23 Jan 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that Beirut is starting to have the Miami look. You can’t travel anymore. pic.twitter.com/f87oDVsbyO Permalink 10:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Appendix to new book on why Black Scholes doesn’t work under power laws pic.twitter.com/3ghxFlQo33 Permalink 10:01 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Gerrymandering based on later categories: There was Christendom, vs Land of Islam and we are using the most recent categorization. “Europe” has traditionally started with Christianity’s limit on the East & (North of the Med) Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1087770487462203393   Permalink 9:59 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Here https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087708976261808129   Permalink 9:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Stop the fake news + historical gerymandering promoted by quack-quack Molyneux & Charles Murray: Before 1600 Northern “Europe” contributed to ~ nothing. Nazi “Aryans” appropriated the growth of the Med/S. W. Eurasia by making (Ancient) Greeks members of the same “race”. Quacks. pic.twitter.com/MB96KybY9V Permalink 9:24 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@Scale_Trust — @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FNfhf5391v Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@iosif_lazaridis Sad that people have to waste their time for this: “20 of 49 statements presented to me for review on January 2 were incorrect, and 27 of the 36 statements presented to me for review on January 5 were incorrect.” Five Corrections to The New York Times https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/five-corrections-new-york-times   Permalink 6:30 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb It happened. 2009. https://twitter.com/rationalwalk/status/1087705510432964613   Permalink 5:44 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb And of course hear that the President of China is talking about Black Swan without having to show up to the Davos meeting of the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers) https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1087638941984006150   Permalink 5:23 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@nntaleb More effective to research in cafés & let your ideas spread than schlepp across conferences collecting business cards. https://twitter.com/CoddingtonKipp/status/1087683082600083458   Permalink 5:05 AM – 22 Jan 2019

@imleslahdin – You know what one should call a test that encourages poor statisticd hygiene? a “statistics deficit test” (SD test) instead of an “intelligent quotient test” – @lpachter Very interesting read if you have been following the @nntaleb IQ threads. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2018/06/04/low-iq-scores-predict-excellence-in-data-science/   Permalink 9:55 PM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Statistic for the Four Population Test https://www.academia.edu/38192150/Statistic_for_the_Four_Population_Test?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 11:50 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@pacha111 “During the collapse of the Sui Dynasty there was a bandit lord named Meng Haigong who had a special hatred for scholars and bureaucrats. Whenever he took a highborn captive he’d carefully *misquote* a Confucian classic in front of them. If they pointed out the error, they died” Permalink 8:27 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 2- Something unknown by *IQ idiots w/sinister theories* (s.a. @charlesmurray @primalpoly): NONLINEARITY. Variables that correlate only ½ the time show ρ >.855 (Gaussian case) but rises to ρ>.92 in absense of tapering of tail values. These are basic notions. Probability is hard. pic.twitter.com/8iQHo9cARm Permalink 5:28 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb 1- SIMPLEST CASE: Correlation with a constant will show a positive correlation. But there is a loooooooot worse. pic.twitter.com/DFhzYsLqp3 Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (this time, difficult) There are many known examples of fake independence: random variables X & Y can be more dependent than shown in correlation. (x & Y=x^x for instance) Can you find instances of X & Y that more correlated than dependent? Permalink 4:20 AM – 21 Jan 2019

@nntalebbot “A half-man (or, rather, half-person) is not someone who does not have an opinion, just someone who does not take risks for it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@nntaleb Insight by @ArthurB about IQ as an inverse metric: Gifted pple exhibit skills-specific competence: geometry, drawing, algebra, patents, wealth, creations… The subset of [1) Losers who can’t do anything & 2) & scored high on IQ] will show their “IQ”. So IQ = adverse selection. Permalink 5:02 AM – 20 Jan 2019

@Iluvpizzayum I have a business. I hate rent-seekers. Permalink 12:34 AM – 20 Jan 2019