Tag Archives: Revenge

Peer-Review, Revenge, Tetlock , Mandelbrot, Asness, BS Vendors, Science | Twitter

On 6/1/20 Twitter retired ‘old twitter’ and broke my amateurish code that scraped NNT’s tweets. Working on a new version.

Tail risk of contagious diseases

@nntaleb (A boring dispute w/academics; ignore) Thanks @HietanenPaavo for sending this. Turns out @PTetlock is lying, claiming I made a private dispute public. There was NO private dispute; he just started a public harrassment campaign (“the “). Paavo linked https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40nntaleb%20%40ptetlock%20until%3A2016-12-31%20since%3A2000-12-31&src=typed_query&f=live   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Y32H5JgT3w”>  pic.twitter.com/Y32H5JgT3w Permalink 9:16 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@threadreaderapp Hi, here is your unroll: @nntaleb: MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249296844712218624.html   Talk to you soon. Permalink 8:58 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb A reminder that 1) Science is hard, 2) Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine.html?smid=tw-share   Permalink 7:04 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb Philologist friends, Is the root for מופת in anyway linked to muppistu in Akkadian? If not, what is the Semitic (or non-Semitic) root? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1265823241240825863   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KADXlrKfTW”>  pic.twitter.com/KADXlrKfTW Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb My full time professional specialty is squid ink. The rest are hobbies. https://twitter.com/reiyashi/status/1265265022328078337   Permalink 7:24 PM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile: I am offering PRECISE solutions. It is just that charlatans don’t like them. https://twitter.com/GavinChait/status/1267182088396177414   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PRpEnjp1OO”>  pic.twitter.com/PRpEnjp1OO Permalink 1:45 PM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Things that went intellectually bankrupt over the pandemics & will hardly recover: Epidemiology Fortune cookie (positive) “evidence” base science Bureaucratic topdown structures: WHO, CDC, UK Group Rent seeking academia can no longer be financed. Universities will crumble. Permalink 11:59 AM – 31 May 2020

@DrCirillo Ottimo italiano, Nassim. Bravo. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1267164936049917952   Permalink 11:49 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades. Permalink 11:30 AM – 31 May 2020

@DrCirillo Qui, se interessa, parlo del rischio di coda nelle pandemie, sulla base del recente lavoro con @nntaleb. (the video is in Italian) https://youtu.be/KF24MTJC3Uw   Permalink 11:19 AM – 31 May 2020

@paolarebeiz Results of Thawra petitions and protests to UNESCO. UNESCO is working on halting the contruction site!!! thank you all for your support! #UnescoKnowsWhatsRight #SaveNahrElKalb https://www.facebook.com/103993277992995/posts/117670636625259/   https://whc.unesco.org/en/news/2116   Permalink 7:48 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Benefits of Quarantine: No restaurants: no seed oil, no bad grains. + More time to bust BS Vendors, read novels. + Weight loss 12lbs, resting heart rate 49 BPM. pic.twitter.com/EtignGJFkn Permalink 6:32 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Pope Francis : Stop the destruction of a historical and cultural site in Nahr El-Kalb, Lebanon! – Sign the Petition! http://chng.it/wyBSz2Nb   via @Change Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Added to the book a comment on “evidence based” scientism https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UR13i0yq0B”>  pic.twitter.com/UR13i0yq0B Permalink 5:34 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Look at the reactions to the warnings in Jan. We had a barrage of idiots many of whom deleted their tweets. https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1266888997864865798   Permalink 5:44 PM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Takes very little effort to clean up as very few people cause most of the damage. However the strategy if to automate blocking of groups/friends as trolls operate in hordes. Very similar to viruse #FatTails. (Note that the same applies to BS vendors. Not many, but overactive) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1266794257324609536   Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb “Restaurants are concave. Limited upside, larger downside (like short volatility). Mega-fragile to events and circumstances; nonportable and illiquid”. https://twitter.com/blackswan969/status/1266788766766829574   Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) You all get organized, fight between one another (but no more blocking), etc. I will take care of the publishing (nonprofit). Permalink 10:14 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/Yz8O5JHGRJ Permalink 8:29 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb The point is that Fat Tonys and grandmothers don’t make the mistakes of those levels 0-3. Permalink 7:59 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we need to start a group to work on Lebanese (Levantine) language travel books for visitors diaspora. They usually go study Arabic taught by IYIs & can’t communicate. Published on Amzn @HsenAndil @Marcellenassif @turlevnon @Decafquest @Zzeghedrane @Extrachelle etc. pic.twitter.com/bPdt80DOWU Permalink 7:58 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb The BS Vendors in probability. For those who don’t get my logic, here is a rank of knowledge in probability with level 0 Phil the rat @PTetlock and level 5 “Russian” probabilists. Unless one is Level 4, errors in probability can be harmful. pic.twitter.com/dvpKV56XMJ Permalink 6:39 AM – 30 May 2020

@ektrit @nntaleb @Extrachelle @GregorySMcMuray @Eleni_Co @Marcellenassif @byzantinepower https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1266656918128537601   Permalink 2:09 AM – 30 May 2020

@jdceulaer Ik schreef ook een essay over de catastrofe die corona heet, na lectuur van ⁦@nntaleb⁩ en gesprekken met ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ en ⁦@bslagter⁩. Over Zwarte Zwanen, Russische roulette en het mondmaskerdrama. https://www.demorgen.be/a-be3e8e41   Permalink 9:59 PM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb 100% of 200 worker test positive. Isn’t it a problem with a test that produces too many false positives? #Witgensteinsruler https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/every-single-worker-has-covid-at-one-u-s-farm-on-eve-of-harvest   via @business Permalink 5:21 PM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Bringing Risk Parity into this. It is a footnote since the entire apparatus of Modern Finance is busted. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JH6MGAskqB”>  pic.twitter.com/JH6MGAskqB Permalink 11:57 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Follow the least boring/most entertaining path. Nobody ever learned a new language from nerds. Twitter helps. Follow someone without translation. Or, better, fight with her/him to break the boredom. https://twitter.com/andradedanielbr/status/1266436642035978240   Permalink 11:39 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntalebbot “You can tell how uninteresting a person is by asking him whom he finds interesting.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:31 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Should I block @Mangan150 for defective logic & promoting harm? pic.twitter.com/mLBC9Jf7a6 Permalink 8:43 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb If you like them, wish them prosperity. If you dislike them, wish them extreme wealth. Permalink 8:39 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb I signed the petition letter to the IMF re:situation in Lebanon and invite you to join https://www.petitions.net/supporting_the_letter_of_the_lebanese_people_to_the_imf   Permalink 6:02 AM – 29 May 2020

@ComTradGuru 8 years later, this article remains one of our favorite portraits of Maestro @nntaleb (by @carolecadwalla) https://www.theguardian.com/books/2012/nov/24/nassim-taleb-antifragile-finance-interview   Permalink 12:38 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Un Decameron bilingue (italiano-spagnolo)! Per migliorare le due lingue. Sto cercando di piu! pic.twitter.com/noq9UACaR6 Permalink 6:41 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb For acceptance, we require a SINGLE paragraph bio. No fluff, etc. For scholarship, can be 1 ½ paragraphs. Permalink 12:55 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb RWRI 14: Will be online, but stretched over 2 weeks. August 10-21 weekdays 8:30-12 noon EST (3:30-7 PM Damascus time, 2:30-6 PM Palermo time) We accept bitcoins. No more 2 days, all 10 days. We offer 20-40% scholarships. 11 Instructors (list TBA) http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 12:54 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors unite So Phil the rat @PTetlock enters a debate in a subject he knows NOTHING about, in a situation beyond his understanding (I was attacked by Asness who blew a fuse, not the opposite for saying the Ilmanen study was BS). Simply…because I busted him as a BS vendor pic.twitter.com/4qWhG2LdPK Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Lopez de Prado does not stop at academic credentials. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1266027198571569152?s=20   Permalink 8:32 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Evidence that at least 21,198 persons on Twitter do not understand meta-problems. #Russell #LiarParadox #Epimenedes #Godel https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1265610817271001088   Permalink 7:43 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb @fotpetr Permalink 4:15 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Looks like there is BEFORE and AFTER with @lopezdeprado after I blocked him for inflation of credentials (few citations to support a “most read” claim) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1264169363596365825   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/N8h9FEBaG0″>  pic.twitter.com/N8h9FEBaG0 Permalink 7:13 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Clearer pic.twitter.com/tIFInJ7ppD Permalink 6:58 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY PUZZLE Friends, help. @bmiloy is interested in meaning of מוֹפְתִ֗ים. Turns out 2 strange things 1) Why is מֹפְתִ֤ים also spelled מוֹפְתִ֗ים ? 2) The Hb Mofti מוֹפְתִי (exemplary) comes from the root מפְתִ (kotel), Why is MFTI مفتي with root FT’ فتا ? Permalink 6:52 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb If you EVER catch me discuss a book I haven’t read, I shut my Twitter acct & leave public life. (Exceptions: excerpts Das Kapital, Smith’s TMS, AlFarabi) (PS. I despise pple who discuss my ideas w/o having read my books.) Below: Read Pinker & other crap https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160676871622860800?s=20   Permalink 3:02 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb It seems to be a paradox because r has a finite mean but X has an infinite mean. cc: @spyrosmakrid @fotpetr Permalink 2:12 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Comment on the Cirillo and Taleb (2020) “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases”: the rate of growth of fatalities may be predictable but, by what seems to be a paradox (it’s not), the quantity of fatalities is NOT. pic.twitter.com/ls5PrDKsGt Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb For our French friends who requested a conversation on Ellipticality: with Raphael Douady. https://youtu.be/4kJQAXugOaY   Permalink 10:08 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Glad to see people recreating stuff in my book. https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1265666753503408129   Permalink 8:33 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to get it!! But I picked #AQR among all other representatives of the Flawed Mod. Finance because they keep publishing unrigorous crap about tail hedging & Ilmanen is verbalistic. (Sorry I can’t stand fools. #Rigor in reasoning). https://twitter.com/ElCordobez1/status/1265595687313510401?s=20   Permalink 5:07 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Do polls work, that is, correctly represent preferences? Permalink 4:48 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Ellipticality (Technical) (My Probability Mooc) https://youtu.be/9oIpb4zYxt4   via @YouTube Permalink 12:52 PM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM on ELLIPTICALITY and how it cancels diversification https://youtu.be/9oIpb4zYxt4   Permalink 11:45 AM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb The points presented by @CliffordAsness are far from technical. (BTW I am not blocking him so he can rebut as he wishes). https://twitter.com/Balkanmasturb8r/status/1265289087482814465?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jZyb4wfSgO”>  pic.twitter.com/jZyb4wfSgO Permalink 10:25 AM – 26 May 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | #Tailhedge-deniers go | inspiration sparked by @nntaleb & @moritzheiden Help me pay my bills. Please! https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Zd7tHKYYxp”>  pic.twitter.com/Zd7tHKYYxp Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM ON RISK PARITY Friends, in the wake of the road-rage by the lunatic of #AQR, @CliffordAsness, I will post short tutorial videos explaining the BS in theories of diversification. I will answer Qs here. Thread is v. technical. Nonscientific commentators will be blocked pic.twitter.com/H9EOlNeZEh Permalink 7:04 AM – 26 May 2020

@reiyashi one man on his journey pic.twitter.com/b1NWXtY4wW Permalink 5:54 AM – 26 May 2020

@mikeandallie 3/3 Following that not-so-great project I took a stab at explaining some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas on the sensitivity of virus models to inputs that, happily, are finally starting to get more attention today. Here’s that twitter thread: https://twitter.com/i/status/1264316544915472387   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 May 2020

@yaneerbaryam Four month anniversary still reads true @nntaleb @normonics #coronavirus https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1221500132337819650   Permalink 4:39 AM – 26 May 2020

@GrahamAMcLeod V happy to see this new Nature Physics paper by Nassim Taleb – one of the few ppl to break consensus and warn of Coronavirus dangers as early as Jan 2020 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x   https://twitter.com/GadSaad/status/1264958279467368448   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rkxvr8SihO”>  pic.twitter.com/rkxvr8SihO Permalink 4:35 PM – 25 May 2020

@Covid19Digest “What @nntaleb understood, and what public health officials in places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam understood, was that there was an asymmetry between overreacting and under-reacting.” https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1257004898610302977   Permalink 3:20 PM – 25 May 2020

@TalebWisdom “Never hire an academic unless his function is to partake of the rituals of writing papers or taking exams.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 May 2020

@HarrisonSearles @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb imagined that possibility in January. https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1264911846466826241   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb https://youtu.be/ggrW6qi0qZQ   Permalink 11:59 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb I sorely discovered from the Monsanto days that @reason was a shill house totally unreliable. It is in fact damaging to the liberty & localist movements. You must block everyone who writes there. https://twitter.com/octonion/status/1264976757201031170   Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb It is not about a long life Non ut diu vivamus curandum est sed ut satis (Seneca) https://twitter.com/LIHF_Living/status/1264972992561524738   Permalink 11:05 AM – 25 May 2020

@octonion Even if every single person in New York City had already been infected, 0.3% of New York City would be about 24000, and New York City had already passed that in excess deaths by the end of April. In other words, this is complete nonsense. https://twitter.com/Ubercapper/status/1264941329026514945   Permalink 10:48 AM – 25 May 2020

@EricTopol The video of @DrCirillo and @nntaleb on this fat-tails paper, the tails-wags-the-dog and its important implications https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr0YIcp-zi0&feature=youtu.be   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EsC2HbsH7y”>  pic.twitter.com/EsC2HbsH7y Permalink 8:22 AM – 25 May 2020

@EricTopol The fat-tail phenomenon of pandemics, dating back to 429 BC and including #COVID19, is vital to recognize but tail-risk is largely ignored in current epidemiological models @DrCirillo @nntaleb @NaturePhysics ★ very perceptive work https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x   @tudelft ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KRiswLWjJ1″>  pic.twitter.com/KRiswLWjJ1 Permalink 8:14 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb 11 AM Brooklyn std time (5 PM Palermo, 6 PM Aleppo) we discuss our paper on pandemics in Nature Physics. We +comment on verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords w/o understanding probability s.a. BS vendor @PTetlock+show error w/Ioannidis +propose basic probability training. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1264595200472682498   Permalink 6:52 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb So @clairlemon barges & takes sides in into a conflict she knows nothing about, in a professional subject she knows nothing about, with a lunatic (@cliffordasness) the content of whose rants she understands nothing, simply because: YOURS TRULY is a party in the conflict. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1264707437807824896   Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb Let me rephrase Would an online tuition of 60% of physical for executive education be Permalink 6:18 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Let me rephrase Would an online tuition of 60% of physical for executive education be Permalink 6:18 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Lung ventilators in Antifragile (2012). I later discussed in a scientific paper. Doctors don’t get convexity. https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMuray/status/1264659956374147073   Permalink 2:41 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb I cannot live in societies that spend trillions on nuclear weapons yet are incapable of delivering COVID testing to their populations. The world’s pseudosophistication & misallocation of resources have been increasing… pic.twitter.com/9hBjwnRbqg Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb What are online fees for executive programs as % of the physical? Permalink 11:57 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb The date: most likely August Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we will be doing #RWRI 14 online. To accommodate people overseas it will be 2 weeks (10 days) 8-12 am EST (2-6 PM in Agrigento, Sicily). We still need to work out details and learn to use Zoom. Meanwhile women scholarships are open. Please check http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb One thing worse than being blamed for the wrong reason: being praised for the wrong reason. Permalink 11:25 AM – 24 May 2020

@Jasak98 “Al Zaytouni” restaurant in North-Lebanon Using Syriac and Garshouni in their menu. pic.twitter.com/kRU5cA4ueT Permalink 11:01 AM – 24 May 2020

@DrCirillo An informal conversation with @nntaleb. Tomorrow, Monday 25, at 5pm (CET), in sync with the paper becoming openly available. https://youtu.be/sr0YIcp-zi0   Permalink 9:32 AM – 24 May 2020

@Decafquest Oh look, @paugasol is readinh @nntaleb’s SITG https://twitter.com/paugasol/status/1264382050611523584   Permalink 5:27 AM – 24 May 2020

@HarryDCrane Part of understanding statistics is understanding when a single data point indicates more than just an anecdote, and also when a full analysis of a large dataset is nothing more than an anecdote. https://twitter.com/vakeraj/status/1264271405878779904   Permalink 7:38 PM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb 3eid Mbarak to those who celebrate! Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Excellent solution https://twitter.com/hvairinhos/status/1264234518397046785?s=20   Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Adding to book: Foundation of Risk Parity is, officially: 1) finite and KNOWN variance 2) ellipticality. Problem: variance is not projectable since kurtosis is patently infinite. No ellipticallity since infinite higher order moments. Also problem of preasymptotic behavior. pic.twitter.com/OyDY4YPh6B Permalink 7:44 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Forgot to reference the lunatic of #AQR, @CliffordAsness Permalink 7:02 AM – 23 May 2020

@HarryDCrane Soon to be accompanied by the inaugural “No BS Probability Conference” 1-day event (online) hosted by @researchersone and possibly other sponsors. Permalink 6:59 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, 1st printing is pre-sold out so I can correct mistakes in MS for a quick 2nd printing that shd hit 10 d later. Comments welcome! https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   The discussion w/the lunatic of #AQR is my point that their entire analytic apparatus is incompatible with fat tails. Permalink 6:52 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb No, I am NOT a polymath. I abhore the notion of polymaths. I have a single field: PROBABILITY/RISK/UNCERTAINTY and it happens to be at the core of many fields. Philology & literature are hobbies, not professional contributions. https://twitter.com/DiegoMoldesGonz/status/1264172162283376641   Permalink 5:59 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb No, I did not block Marcos López de Prado @lopezdeprado because of his comments. I had blocked him weeks ago when I saw these claims in his bio. pic.twitter.com/5qLIngpTRx Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Same for exponent. Seems impossible to solve the composition analytically. pic.twitter.com/AAGSF4sUXk Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb CHEATING: By simulation the base is ½ and converges quickly. We cannot use traditional methods because the “generator” function f has a second argument in it, here p. pic.twitter.com/ZpT4qTVRoL Permalink 4:58 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb If you describe an early precautionary reaction as conscious panic, it confuses your detractors… https://twitter.com/HCSArmstrong/status/1263986779671183360   Permalink 5:21 PM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb This may take 5 min or part of the weekend. (please no comments by non-math amateurs). pic.twitter.com/gtWGD8oOOw Permalink 11:59 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Thread. When someone says “you’re panicking” say “Yes, what’s wrong with such a risk management approach?” When someone says “you’re an asshole”, answer “yes, what’s wrong being asshole with the arrogant”, etc. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1263881991814098946   Permalink 10:42 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 5/n Mandelbrot has a monstrous scientific erudition & a yuuge curiosity. He knew arcane math stuff only autodidacts know. But he respected erudition much more than scientific rank, based on his fascinations with polyglot characters like Jean de Menasce. https://twitter.com/ArieHaziza/status/1263874558802698241?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vLSvtwErMa”>  pic.twitter.com/vLSvtwErMa Permalink 10:02 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Did Pinker do another “empirical” analysis to figure out if those who believe in the afterlife have a statitically significant shorter life expectancy? No. You never never miss with Pinker. Wherever he ventures, he manages to produce BS. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1263463995870269440   Permalink 9:42 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I am not used to psychiatricize people; first time I do it as Asness (henceforth “The Lunatic of AQR”) stupidly went into such claims. Permalink 9:34 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb NARCISSISTIC RAGE: HOW ASNESS BLEW A FUSE One shd resist making psychiatric claims, excepty for situations where 100% self evident. Busted #AQR: 1) Fails to deliver claims, 2) Uses pseudoscientific analytics not for fat tails. =>Asness goes nuts. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/narcissistic-rage   https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263823559329288192   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JFCILVjOre”>  pic.twitter.com/JFCILVjOre Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 4/n The great Mandelbrot was 100% uncompromising. But he suffered because he cared abt honors & academic status; he depended on a certain establishment. So I learned from him to do opposite 1) be 100% independent, 2) Do theorems & proofs (which, being intuitive, he hated). Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 3/n Mandelbrot’s contempt for Fama prompted to ignore story in book but it is revived by the connection to the *AQR lunatic* the disgusting @CliffordAsness Fat tails invalidate the tools of finance and Fama is indeed by his own admission unscientific. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1544508050/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i21   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/n Fama’s reasons was that Fat Tails were “incompatible with the tools in social science”. It’s like using the map of Tokyo in Mexico because “here is a map”. I actually wrote to Fama & got same HORRENDOUS answer. Mandelbrot saw Fama never understood the CONSEQUENCES of tails. pic.twitter.com/7R5ojL3X4Y Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 1/n The great Mandelbrot despised Fama whom he found both clueless & dishonorable. Fama was a French major & M supervised his thesis; they applied the Levy-Stable Distribution for markets (mistake since it’s a limit not met preasymtotically). Then Fama turned on M to use MPT. Permalink 5:20 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Grazie amici! L’autore piu suggerito qui e Calvino; e il piu facile da leggere? Leggere la letteratura in una lingua straniera e molto difficile; qual e il libro piu semplice di Calvino? Permalink 4:35 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb We need some help from philologists (including maestros @Safaitic & @PhDniX) about the strange verb دمغ for “killing by damaging one’s head”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263664298900979712   Permalink 4:19 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Here we go, @sapinker will never disappoint. You bust his BS in one field, he appears in another. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1263463995870269440   Permalink 8:14 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Google finally discovering that Lebanese is not Arabic. pic.twitter.com/o9JkbtrTgq Permalink 2:27 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb نحنا منئول بلكورة ” الغايب عزرو معوا” https://twitter.com/HsenAndil/status/1263557433470967808   Permalink 2:17 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 13) The book STAT CONS OF FAT TAILS is freely available in PDF here (easier to read than ArXiv). https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 2:11 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Com’e Eco in italiano? Facile? Permalink 1:39 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Amici italiani, Sto cercando un romanzo facile da leggere in italiano. Sono stato sorpreso di scoprire che la Moravia è molto più ricca e difficile da leggere rispetto, per esempio, a Machiavelli. Qual è il più semplice? Che ne dite di? Barico? Di Lampedusa? Schiaschia? Altri? Permalink 1:29 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb (Note: I am not connected to @TalebWisdom). Robb’s book, it is safe to say, is still on my mind 13 years later! https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1263177133461028864   Permalink 10:10 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 12) Taking stock: AQR pans general tail hedging as a loser’s game. Universa’s risk mitigated portfolio life to date (and BEFORE 2020) outperforms SPX—by slashing risk. AQR portfolios, …, not so much. MPT is smoke and mirrors, topic of my new book. https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/1544508050   Permalink 7:21 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 11) Next time, @CliffordAsness someone tries to have lunch with you to discuss risk parity & things, do not blow him away unceremoniously claiming you don’t eat his food. It would have avoided you the embarrassment of these genuine but highly unscientific outbursts. Permalink 7:19 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb The responses of Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness too this thread have been vastly… nontechnical. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263102555565023233?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dRcROHacVM”>  pic.twitter.com/dRcROHacVM Permalink 5:01 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 10) The responses by @CliffordAsness to this thread have been vastly …nontechnical. pic.twitter.com/1gWESuSBJQ Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb #Lindy! That’s the way to do science without the rentseekingacademiconasalary gaming the system. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1263189643492757506   Permalink 4:16 AM – 21 May 2020

@enzolamberti Buongiorno @hugowiz , did you have your @NonMeek #brikka coffee yet? pic.twitter.com/dwdFekaZMP Permalink 12:32 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 9) For the general public watching the road rage of Mr Asness who misreplied to my last post: The claims by AQR is: tail risk is not needed by funds because there are ways to do it better. As we are finding out: the performance of AQR doesn’t show it. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263283331862495232?s=20   Permalink 6:56 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb The entire point is by that by cricitizing a tail risk mitigation via OTM options one would expect AQR’s risk mitigation to be better. It’s not and that’s the story. (I also insist that there is was never a PERSONAL mention of Cliff Aness, just AQR.) https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263266366343327748?s=20   Permalink 6:23 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 7/n Perhaps Mr Asness can show us empiricists, with the benefit of hindsight, which fund he wants us to pick to get the relative performance. PS- I have no interest in Asness, not even AQR, but they can’t get away w/nonsensical claims abt tail risk. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263266354909626369?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/txJQrm9aQU”>  pic.twitter.com/txJQrm9aQU Permalink 6:05 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 6/n Perhaps Mr Asness should show us which of his funds we should look at, and since his answer has a psychiatry dimension, we turn to some psychiatry. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263252874794086400?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SJ2USJ1pcL”>  pic.twitter.com/SJ2USJ1pcL Permalink 5:27 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 5/n #AQR Make AQR aware that OTM options have >> fatter tails than underlying (+ one-tailed), hence hidden moment are substantial. Similar to floods. “Empirical” simulations are not predictive in the naive intrapolative way. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263222080323162113?s=20   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR What You See and Don’t See: Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution. The said “empirical” distribution hides stuff! Where is the hidden moment for n observations? Intuition of the results of paper below https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.05894.pdf   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64WDwef5jKI   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 4/n #AQR Ilmanen the bullshitter (& the AQR team) among other things don’t seem to get that tail payoff != probability x payoff under fat tails. You need to include payoffs not part of this, and g(x) is convex (option payoffs by convexity are MUCH MORE FAT TAILED than underlying) pic.twitter.com/7skOHLO6sJ Permalink 1:45 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 3/n Antti Ilmanen claims tails must be expensive from lottery tickets (but excludes 1987 crash); doesn’t get basics: Stat 102 does’t cover when assumptions are violated (Gauss-Markov, etc.) Fails to get Bayes’ rule. Note: while RISK PARITY is ~unique, tail hedges vary hugely. pic.twitter.com/8HrZ4QkOnj Permalink 1:27 PM – 20 May 2020

@john_f_hamer “Trust those who trust you and distrust those who are suspicious of others.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2nd edition) @nntaleb Permalink 12:40 PM – 20 May 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Yes! Although I had heard it before, I only got the consequences of it when I read your book and played around with simulations. It bogles my mind how much misunderstanding comes from not replicating everything in statistics. Thank you for saying it aloud! Permalink 9:37 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/n (#AQR) Meanwhile Universa hedged portf outperformed SP while AQR crap and RISK PARITY junk underperformed. I cannot believe that AQR will issue claims from hypotheticals. Further they are mired in the probability distributions & metrics that have been amply debunked. Permalink 6:46 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 1/n AQR issued 2 flawed reports saying tail risk hedging doesn’t work (in theory), options are “expensive” Yet they did not reveal that 1) Their OWN risk premia strategies lost money. 2) Their other public crap underperforms the MKT. Insult to clients & the REAL WORLD. Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Explaining with minimal complexity the non-ellipticality of probability distributions when the correlation is unstable. Explains the failures of RISK PARITY, some BS invention that sells to gullible clients innocent of probability. pic.twitter.com/Iv3hxQJZB4 Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb FRAGILITY, OVEROPTIMIZATION & COVID No, it’s not the lockdown that’s breaking NYC! Restaurants & hotels are so stretched (mostly rent) that they go bust after a 8-18% drop in rev/occupancy. Same w/theaters,museums. Real estate must adjust (distancing) #Convexity #Nonlinear Permalink 5:42 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb This is central. https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1262833575251939328   Permalink 12:53 PM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 3b/ Weightlifting from @CoachRippetoe & @GrantSSC, exercise/health from @GuruAnaerobic Levantine language from @HsenAndil, @Marcellenassif, @turlevnon & others And here and there from friends on Twitter Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 3a/ You can learn yuuuuugely from Twitter while playing. I learned Inequalities frm Maestro Bogomolny (RIP) & the FB Romanians Semitic philology frm @Safaitic & @PhDniX Latin frm @ArmandDAngour Computational math frm @WolframResearch History frm @holland_tom @DrMichaelBonner Permalink 11:52 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb Voila, plus or minus a calculation error. pic.twitter.com/R9NlSF9igk Permalink 11:19 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ #RWRI proved that experienced people are uniquely capable of teaching a real world subject: doctor trains doctor, nurse trains nurse (& doctor), risk takers train young risk takers (not some nerd), accountant train budding accountants, thief trains thief, prostitute trains… Permalink 10:42 AM – 19 May 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 63: Something for those interested in Greek linguistics: misspellings shed light on contemporary pronunciation. This Greek text accompanies a Safaitic inscription of a man named Maṭr of the lineage of ṣabāḥ (صباح). But look how the tribal name is spelled. pic.twitter.com/CuGYUzX04f Permalink 5:12 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) To visualize the intricacy, see my comments #RWRI on negative prices via arbitrage/squeezes. @johncarlosbaez Permalink 10:02 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb We use negative probabilities in quant finance since probability is just a KERNEL inside an integral, rarely a “real thing” outside of binary payoffs. So long as *no arbitrage* is satisfied. Only thing that matters is (by scaling) ∫densities=1. Similar to negative prices in oil. https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1262053722336620545   Permalink 10:00 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb 1) The taste of (cold) revenge is by far the most underrated human experience. Not for cowards. Not be good for society except when revenge does not lead to more revenge. 2) Written ~170 y ago. I’ve never read more limpid more recent page turner. #Lindy = #ergodic seller! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1258853603554574336   Permalink 8:58 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb By “find love” I meant “find love (in different categories of varying expected duration)”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1261317028993957888   Permalink 8:22 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb I like the peer-review system. It is necessary, but never sufficient. Also depends what you call “peers”. Peer-review of decision science papers in psychology is worthless. Permalink 8:12 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb THE DEATH OF ACADEMIA: peer-review creates citation rings of high ignorance. The epidemiological models developed by @stephen_wolfram, his son, & @dzviovich in 1 or 2 afternoons were light years ahead of models by academia w/zillions of “peer reviewed” crap. As to finance… pic.twitter.com/aExX51TEe0 Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb The Monsanto days are back: $$ buy science! https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/stanford-coronavirus-neeleman-ioannidis-whistleblower   Permalink 5:00 PM – 15 May 2020

@dvassallo I’m from Malta (left 10yrs ago), and when people ask me how’s work culture in the US, this is what’s different. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1005515603019554818   Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 May 2020

@nntaleb The main function of a conference is to get a job, find love, corner potential customers during parties, or get a subsidized (or tax efficient) vacation. Content is merely a side effect. Online conferences need something else. Permalink 8:26 AM – 15 May 2020

@HietanenPaavo 2 I’d assume this is partially of what Prof @nntaleb means when he says “Govts don’t shut down economy, people do” Fins export business is worth 92 billion euros (article above) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1254072995628408832   Permalink 1:05 AM – 15 May 2020

@nntaleb This is how Umberto Eco’s library looked. pic.twitter.com/NmriwamUjg Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb Glad @RaminNasibov corrected. Umberto Eco’s library was 1) light, 2) modern w/white shelves (based on Ikea’s Billy), 3) comfortable and inviting. You felt like wanting to spend every Sunday afternoon there. This is dark, musty, uncomfortable, and … has too many books. https://twitter.com/RaminNasibov/status/1260951032886149121   Permalink 11:33 AM – 14 May 2020

@birdxi1988 The simulation shows that even with R0<1, an epidemic may still be thriving somewhere in the country. I think ⁦@nntaleb⁩ mentioned this in January,as an average,R0 is biased downward because the outbreaks have fat tail due to “super-spreader“ events. https://www.santafe.edu/news-center/news/transmission-t-024-cristopher-moore-on-the-heavy-tail-of-outbreaks   Permalink 10:01 AM – 14 May 2020

Bill Gates, Psychologists, Academics, Baalbeck, Revenge, Amsterdam , Quillette, Pinker, Napoleon, Kashkari, Bayer | Twitter

@nntaleb We should move the bulk of civil servants to Alaska. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1139349756017143808   Permalink 6:55 AM – 15 Jun 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/E9SW6hmxy8 Permalink 3:10 PM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Thanks to @NonMeek, an explanation of the point. pic.twitter.com/03aWOhj6kO Permalink 1:56 PM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I managed to fool 6000 people yesterday. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1139184456856678400   Permalink 8:05 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Even more think that psychology is scientific. https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1139545553992183809   Permalink 8:03 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) Elsewhere, I discuss the same point within ergodicity. Worrying about homicide & terrorism is extremely rational. Same with GMOs. Permalink 6:45 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Beware naive empiricism funded by @BillGates. An insult to risk and probability. pic.twitter.com/qXXIV28rUE Permalink 6:29 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Arabs took locals as slaves. They use same word for “slave” ( عبد) and “subsaharan African” … even in classical poetry! (هجاء كافور) The pseudoliberal propaganda works well… for now. pic.twitter.com/xTJ8KbYdqH Permalink 5:04 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb (Except it misses that Ethiopia uses Amharic not Arabic) Permalink 4:51 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This is a better map showing the severity of Arab colonialism in Africa. pic.twitter.com/nbVKcraPZj Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb When you look at the national languages of Africa as colonialism, you can see that it is split into French, English, and Arabic colonialism (plus residues s.a. Portuguese). For the “liberals” in academia, IYIs, & BS vendors a la Edward Said, Arabic isn’t colonialism. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1139486646049656835   Permalink 4:04 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The price of fighting with more than one state without clear offers to settle: all your enemies become natural friends. The coalition: Russia-China-Iran so far created by these imbecile saber-rattling neo-cons Next, naturally, Turkey Even Israel is flirting with China. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1139481466847600640   Permalink 3:41 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb So far 100% of the psychologists I have examined appear to be clueless about the meaning of something as elementary as correlation. It is all helped by that idiot @primalpoly supplying papers with “evidence” for the noncircularity of “IQ”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1136526793811402752   Permalink 3:32 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Figured out why 99% of academics have to be misfit, 3rd rate intellectually, by construction. You observe, say in probabilistic matters, yuuge inconsistencies. When you point it out to them, they require a “reference”. OK: write the fucking “reference”. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 3:07 AM – 14 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Yuuge vindication for Ole Peters @ole_b_peters and people who doubt psycholophasters of “utility”. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1139155625961820162   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JuGII9xMRF”>  pic.twitter.com/JuGII9xMRF Permalink 1:29 PM – 13 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:03 AM – 13 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, a question. Do verbal surveys (in the form of multiple answers) work? Permalink 7:55 AM – 13 Jun 2019

@nntaleb He forgot French: “clebs” or “clébard” https://twitter.com/HebreWords/status/1138784220439109632   Permalink 5:46 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@lizzie363 THIS IS WHY CASH IS SO IMPORTANT!! Economists singing the praises of a cashless society are actually arguing for authoritarianism!!! https://twitter.com/jchristychoi/status/1138769437723570176   Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb My video explaining why @BillGates should do more thinking, less naive empiricism a la Pinker. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=13&v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 4:15 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “Another marker for charlatans: they don’t voice opinions that can get them in trouble.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:59 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Here is the approach showing the relatedness of Levantines with Persans and Anatolians vs Arabs. Four Population Tests. pic.twitter.com/FmrN30BInU Permalink 3:18 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb You cannot shill without being eventually discovered. Thank you Monsanto papers & the U.S. legal system. pic.twitter.com/oSrhclNhuA Permalink 3:15 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb David Ropeik @dropeik is one of the Monsanto shills who went after our precautionary principle. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1138749281269981184   Permalink 3:13 AM – 12 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 4) The Bill Gates who follows his instinct & grandmother’s paranoia is smarter that the @BillGates who tries to use statistics a la Pinker and reads stuff written by psycholophasters. https://twitter.com/EllJohnny1/status/1138541410980978689   Permalink 1:23 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 3) Deeper discussions with proofs here. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Permalink 1:04 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb My solution pic.twitter.com/CeRcgdvnsx Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) Never compare risks with fat tails to regular ones. The law of large numbers works differently. Plus ergodicity. We survived hundreds of millions of risks thanks to paranoia. We don’t need to be lectured by pseudostatisticians. @BillGates pic.twitter.com/4pQPQcGYjM Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 1) Actually people’s fears line up to tail risks much better than naive empiricists. This is monstrously ignorant a la Steven Pinker. https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/1138520780042465280   Permalink 12:49 PM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (Air travel recreation). Acrtually the bound is tighter. Prove it is >= 27. pic.twitter.com/jl2E5spyXY Permalink 11:53 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@black_swan_man Part 3 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #riskmitigation #longgamma #squeezer pic.twitter.com/7EkUSCtVjY Permalink 11:21 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lebanese are much more related to Iranians than to “Arabs”. Some people may hate the news. https://twitter.com/officialarti/status/1138445121119277057   Permalink 6:59 AM – 11 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 8:08 PM – 10 Jun 2019

@ronportnoir @nntaleb This Chomsky quote about cockroaches reminds me of what you say about psychiatry. https://twitter.com/chomsky_quotes/status/1138200548862119937   Permalink 2:50 PM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Turks and Greeks should be made aware of this. And the Lebanese, of course. [Note this is by country borders: Southern Italy and Northern Iran should be blue] https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/1138096007059632128   Permalink 9:34 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The monks may be confused linguistically, but the views are breathtaking… Note the monastery (red roof top) on the right, hugging the slope, impenetrable, out of the reach of the Ottomans & other invaders. pic.twitter.com/4RoDhSRVGI Permalink 4:53 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Surprise: entirely home farmed mushrooms, mozzarella, vegetables for a pizza joint in Byblos & Amioun. (“Una Pizza”) pic.twitter.com/sL9PecoX6P Permalink 4:43 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb “Chemphobia”: while the term was coined by industry shills, is entirely rational. Scientifically so. Some chemicals are safe but we never really know before the #LindyEffect takes its course. Elementary statistical significance. Very elementary. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1138041466935304194   Permalink 4:25 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “If someone is making an effort to ignore you, he is not ignoring you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:11 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This thread a summary of PRINCIPIA POLITICA. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1137742800487927809   Permalink 12:03 AM – 10 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2- Added section on xenophobia/discrimimation at some scale, not others. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nyBAGgWVje”>  pic.twitter.com/nyBAGgWVje Permalink 11:06 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb IF levels of lipids are ~ in 2 pop., but not *something else*, AND there are yuuge CVD differences, then the something else is necessary for CVD, perhaps in conjunction with lipids, which requires a joint probability distribution. Precautionarily, avoid that *something else*. Permalink 10:10 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Statistically, by exclusion, we are zooming in on a different story for CVD: it supports the 1-2 meals a day, feast/fasting ancient heuristics & traditions. Minimize exposure time to insulin, especially under Med genetics. @Mangan150 https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1137731523661127680   Permalink 9:54 PM – 9 Jun 2019

@Juan_indaliano @nntaleb this genetic research on southern Spaniards seems to support your “languages travel; genes less so” assertion. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41580-9   Permalink 11:18 AM – 9 Jun 2019

@nntaleb “Linear” correlation is a misnomer: it does indeed measure a linear relationship between variables, BUT it is nonlinear. https://twitter.com/VirendrasinghP/status/1137584275153276928   Permalink 10:15 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Answer: .87! See equation 13. pic.twitter.com/iJCJ8lULTj Permalink 10:07 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb SUNDAY QUIZ For a correlation number between X and Y, what is the “half point” correlation between 0 and 1, that is, the correlation for which you have half the uncertainty about X if you observed Y ( or vice-versa) compared to not having observed Y? Permalink 9:50 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) SJL (#SocialJusticeLunatics), grievance studies windbags and other imbeciles may dominate the universities, but… they are underepresented in the jury system. This and the Monsanto destruction should restore our faith in the system. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1137429172333289473   Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 1) In America, we may have universities run by SJL (#SocialJusticeLunatics), we may have bad government, controled by lobbyists, but we have a well functioning legal system. If someone tries to mess w/you and your small business, call a lawyer. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/jun/7/ohio-jury-awards-11-million-to-bakery-owners-targe/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork&fbclid=IwAR3OKRmYtC-r3ORzkyiuJWngOu4xTpBcyuI-c0TI7azPf_4l_i3q3hdpjMg   Permalink 11:35 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Yuuuuuge mystery https://twitter.com/CapitalParadox/status/1137398724668338176   Permalink 9:46 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/LouisLebbos/status/1137338419380703232   Permalink 9:28 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Baalbeck contains these gigantic stones, 1650 tons! It dwarfs pretty much anything I’ve seen elsewhere in the ancient world, makes the acropolis look like a Las Vegas version. pic.twitter.com/13JJMyrsnA Permalink 9:27 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb And the road through Mt Lebanon cuts through walls of snow. pic.twitter.com/D8mJJ4AygF Permalink 7:03 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Baalbeck, behind the temple of Dionysos with archeologist @DrWissam and @PZalloua No Graeco-Roman ruin comes close in size. pic.twitter.com/I63lFWi6DU Permalink 5:10 AM – 8 Jun 2019

@DegenRolf Everything that psychologists have told us about the detection of deception may just be a big fat lie. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691619838258   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/bJLyByWUrd”>  pic.twitter.com/bJLyByWUrd Permalink 12:09 PM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, Correction: I granted on twitter the Persian language rights because I can’t transact. Permalink 8:17 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin Honored & Happy to announce that I will attend (as a learner) #RWRI this June 24th on a very generous scholarship by @nntaleb. Thank you Ostedhna! Now back to reading, programming and sharpening my math and probability. @trishank see you in NY! #risk #sitg #math #proba pic.twitter.com/mORMofk9Mw Permalink 7:58 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The highest honor: a pirated trnslation of Skin in the Game in Persian. https://twitter.com/skininthegameir/status/1136903480768172032   Permalink 7:12 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Convent Mar Antonios Qozachia ܩܘܙܚܝܐ: Boasting the first printing press in the “Arab world” in 1610, except that the press was in… Aramaic (Syriac)! Arabists are imbeciles. (Note the red color in the books) pic.twitter.com/6yycxYzQUD Permalink 7:07 AM – 7 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Ergodicity rephrased by @naval https://twitter.com/naval/status/1002103908947263488   Permalink 11:19 PM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb footnote: The Latin alphabet is ALSO Phoenician. Permalink 10:37 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, my PRINCIPIA POLITICA for comments https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wS89f0EtZi”>  pic.twitter.com/wS89f0EtZi Permalink 6:56 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@rorysutherland A lot of this is debatable. Unless you are a journalist – ie one of the hand-loom operators of the 21st Century – in which case it chimes with your own dismal experience. Instrumental inequality has never been lower. Take out property and education and everything is cheaper. https://twitter.com/herdmeister/status/1136548869544656896   Permalink 1:39 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For those who celebrate, Happy Eid! Permalink 1:32 AM – 6 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 13 A correlation of 50% reduces uncertainty by 6-13% not more. Meaning psychology is a citation ring/political agenda. pic.twitter.com/D3whiWeM97 Permalink 11:54 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@chemblette https://www.wsj.com/articles/rahm-emanuel-ex-chicago-mayor-is-going-to-wall-street-11559760420   Time to ban rent-seeking? What kind of value can this former politician create for society in his newfound capacity? @nntaleb @FrazerAnderson Permalink 9:46 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Erratum: economist -> social scientist (mainly psychologists) https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1136339451154784256   Permalink 12:08 PM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For psychologists who are not blind, a correlation of 3/4 is visually much closer to 0 than to 1. That’s the logic of the scaling. My metrics look at the total surface (in the square) divided by the one inside the circle (sort of). pic.twitter.com/MEQ3Pzk1oe Permalink 10:46 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “People tend to whisper when they say the truth and raise their voice when they lie.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:09 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@hugowiz «… it seems to me that people flood their stories with numbers and graphs in the absence of solid or logical arguments.» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #data #risk img. @thefredyjacob pic.twitter.com/uRPY6op6vx Permalink 6:19 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People starting to write Lebanese in Lebanon… pic.twitter.com/YEo7WqOovh Permalink 6:13 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@black_swan_man Part 2 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #crash #robots #CTA #fooledbyrandomness pic.twitter.com/XMcCqqklQ2 Permalink 5:37 AM – 5 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Revenge is a moral obligation. https://twitter.com/RobRastapop/status/1136136216829546496   Permalink 10:18 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb RESCALING CORRELATION to its own informational importance pic.twitter.com/1tuHKCKah3 Permalink 9:13 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@RobRastapop Yes. Funny how most don’t get this. 1. True Revenge is not petty. 2. Revenge is not about justice. It’s about preempting future injustice. Permalink 5:12 PM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb These are the two ways you should interpret correlation. The third method, entropy based mutual information gives similar results. pic.twitter.com/9C4Ps3uh4h Permalink 11:58 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 12 “Europe” is not a real continent (at best the daughter of a Phoenician king). Its definition is political, now affected by a religious separation. If “Europe” were to be rationally defined, it should start in the Zagros/Caucasus. pic.twitter.com/7atZQ5zupR Permalink 11:45 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Time spent on revenge is never wasted. Permalink 11:00 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People have a hard time with via negativa. But your grandmother gets that you get to truth by removing the crap. https://twitter.com/Gbh89423811/status/1135942686400290816   Permalink 9:16 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Question: What is the difference between my function \phi[\rho,k] and Var[X|Y]? Yuuge differences, as \phi takes into account the fact that E[X|Y]=\rho Y (simplifying for normalized variables) which loses tractability in the tails. Both stories makes psychologists look v. bad. Permalink 9:03 AM – 4 Jun 2019

@nntaleb TUTORIAL: Where we show what correlation means under VERY standard Gaussian assumptions (breaks down under fat tails). You need a correlation of .87 to reduce half the uncertainty! pic.twitter.com/YZPJlbcWD0 Permalink 10:31 PM – 3 Jun 2019

@NicuMihalache @nntaleb surprise, surprise … https://twitter.com/kaibaumgartner/status/1135575151049879552   Permalink 11:09 AM – 3 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Refined the metric on the way back to Phoenica. We are interested in the range around K. How much does correlation(X,Y) reduce your uncertainty about Y given X? pic.twitter.com/EeKeaqUa00 Permalink 8:50 AM – 3 Jun 2019

@dwnhogendoorn @nntaleb Napoleon eroded SITG Permalink 11:32 PM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Part II to come. Flaneuring in Amsterdam with a notebook and… cannot resist doing probability. pic.twitter.com/w5RCXrS8h9 Permalink 2:59 AM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A correlation of .5 (assuming it is rigorously obtained) carries practically NO information for the tails, cannot explain OUTPERFORMANCE. (Or why psychologists are toooooooootal idiots). #Scienceishard pic.twitter.com/YHhWnjmvCy Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Thank you twitter Macedonian origin FOR THE PLANT. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1134827953869807616   Permalink 7:51 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I mildly disagree with my two erudite friends @turlevnon & Hareth. Many, many Italian and French terms came via 1) Sabir (the maritime Lingua Franca), and 2) Turkish. https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/1134819777682317322   Permalink 7:17 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@nntaleb SATURDAY PHILOLOGICAL SPECULATIONS Parsley in Greek Μαϊντανός, N.Macedonian “magdonos”, Levantine ba2dunés, Kurdish “bekdenus”, Turkish “maydanoz”. Yet it is most prevalent in the N. Levant (taboulé). What is, if any, the Semitic correspondent? Is it Macedonian in origin? Permalink 7:12 AM – 1 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “The first one who uses “but”, has lost the argument.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:50 PM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb What the fuck does causality have to do with this? Permalink 9:34 PM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Yes, is Quillete about freedom of speech or support for a certain type of “science”. https://twitter.com/horacejuvenal/status/1134460991196917770   Permalink 7:34 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb 8 (Final)- Napoleon Carrying a 4lb 870-page UK hardcover book across airports and cafés made me enjoy it better. Something @rorysutherland can understand. You don’t know what you really like until you actually try it. Was not expecting to prefer the heaviest possible version! pic.twitter.com/rp9U8DRMLn Permalink 7:17 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Here is my “why correlation is not usually correlation”, another problem that the one in the original post. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=53s   Permalink 6:56 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Suspicion @Quillette/@clairlemon aren’t abt freedom of speech but cover for agenda: I’m AGAINST muzzling @NoahCarl90 w/program abt “cognitive differences” for “groups” (euphemism for racism) BUT find him a charlatan They’re upset about “charlatan” NOT happy w/support for freedom https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1134020269100666880   Permalink 6:41 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb The verbal explanation. https://youtu.be/p76bQlnVuBM   Permalink 6:23 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Part 2 of the paper; why entropy methods are vastly more robust. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1113566110367002624   Permalink 6:15 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Nothing to do with “causation”, I will block anyone who brings down the subject to that mantra. Correlation does not imply correlation. Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Why almost all social scientists are clueeeeeeless about what correlation means. pic.twitter.com/zp7rLoVP1e Permalink 5:59 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb The Greco-Phoenician research fraternity GPRF: with @spyrosmakrid and Cypriots at the Univ. of Nicosia. pic.twitter.com/ZDs6dDGY02 Permalink 5:32 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb Neurobiology is the most effective of pseudosciences because something derived in a lab fools you into thinking it’s hard science. Luckily we can tell it as it has the statistical rigor of S. Pinker crossed with the Marx Brothers. https://twitter.com/emanuelderman/status/1134428813759320064   Permalink 5:09 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb After requests to have predictions of “sign” for random variables, settled w/@spyrosmakrid for tracking of buy/sell P/L (one in real life does not buy or sell “signs” but buys something at a price, and sells at another price). The compromise should please @mikeharrisNY Permalink 2:29 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Unless you ignore them, of course. Permalink 1:49 AM – 31 May 2019

@nntaleb You’ll end up resembling your worst enemies. Permalink 1:46 AM – 31 May 2019

@mdvex None of the successful people I know take notes. https://twitter.com/sacca/status/1134128910004772869   Permalink 11:19 PM – 30 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “If you want to teach someone a real skill, teach him how to fail. He will never learn it in school.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:48 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb The gym at the Republic of Amioun in Northern Phoenicia. The church in the bakground (circle) is where 8 of my ancestors have been resting for 2 centuries. The rest are in another church to the right. pic.twitter.com/0osYEwzsU9 Permalink 1:51 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb Fixed a few typos pic.twitter.com/xHHkQDg9L7 Permalink 1:21 PM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 7-Napoleon He had a strong Italian accent but then almost every provincial French person had an accent. People in Burgundy rolled the “r”s. His biographers are using today’s norms retrospectively. 8- Napoleon III was not related to him, DNA shows. Someone cheated. Permalink 8:33 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb My nightmare, SCIENTISM promoted by @clairlemon et al: +Genes determine something <=> We know which genes +Traits are heritable <=> performance is heritable +Simple domains (running) = high dim complex domains +Mean = extrema (no minority rule) pic.twitter.com/YWDsLMTL6S Permalink 5:57 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 6- Napoleon His central flaw: viewed the world (including socioeconomic life) as a top-down streamlined military structure. Could not grasp selforganization and complexity. Permalink 4:29 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb 5- Napoleon Post Russia, he was no longer Napoleon. “Napoleon did something completely out of character. He vacillated”. Permalink 3:29 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb I stand against the termination of @NoahCarl90, for a simple reason: he is a charlatan. + He is a technically unsophisticated race obsessed “researcher” with a SINISTER agenda, + His research is so unrigorous it needs to be published so people can LAUGH at his project. https://twitter.com/NoahCarl90/status/1128396149004611588   Permalink 1:54 AM – 30 May 2019

@nntaleb Discussion with Spyros: why for fat tailed variables we need to use Mean Deviation NOT standard deviation, even when variance is finite. pic.twitter.com/JE8gsfnUZs Permalink 1:24 AM – 30 May 2019

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 3 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @dan_aykroyd #TradingPlaces #CBOT #crash #Sikh #Nihang #Gatka pic.twitter.com/lZ0rh105lZ Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb My experience of IQ psychologists is that they are very dumb to do science & probability, yet never realize how dumb they are because they only talk to dumb psychologists. Yet they want to be arbiters of intelligence & PUT DOWN entire races & groups. Like this @GarettJones https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1131297892629659649   Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 May 2019

@NonMeek “There is no significant #correlation (or any robust statistical association) between #IQ and hard measures such as wealth.” -@nntaleb …and here’s the comic strip to accompany that pic.twitter.com/ZV8D7vNrtM Permalink 10:46 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb General Scholarships are open for RWRI 11 June 24-28 (Real World Risk Institute) http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 6:18 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb Mystery? pic.twitter.com/XG2Mz7sIiK Permalink 3:40 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, please help w/design for the @spyrosmakrid M5 competition. 1)Choise of variables 2) (more important) WHAT to forecast. X after 5 days, 1m, Min(X), Max(X), Max(X-Y). Important for decisions to get Min & uncertainty since “never cross a river 4 feet deep on average” pic.twitter.com/dP5shVLc5D Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 May 2019

@nntaleb 4- Napoleon Although the author tries to avoid spoilers when progressing through the ~45 battles, there is no suspense in the book: outcome is known. If something in Paris is named after it, (Jena, Austerlitz, Rivoli, Wagram, Castiglione), Napoleon won. Otherwise, he lost. Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Happiness is not defined by how people say they “feel” but by what they do. (Revelation of preferences) #Skininthegame @rorysutherland https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1132288942034833409   Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink; Cypriot squid ink. pic.twitter.com/nMvCx5gRz7 Permalink 11:41 AM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Taleb = φιλόλογος (Philologos ) pic.twitter.com/hvpJE43tCo Permalink 7:19 AM – 28 May 2019

@nntaleb Σήμερα είμαι στη Λευκωσία με τον @spyrosmakrid για να συζητήσουμε τον διαγωνισμό M5 Competition. Permalink 9:19 PM – 27 May 2019

@VergilDen “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average” The Black Swan, Taleb https://twitter.com/xkcdcomic/status/1133052055763820545   Permalink 9:56 AM – 27 May 2019

@TalebWisdom “Sometimes people ask you a question with their eyes begging you to not tell them the truth.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:41 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- My instinct tells me that most of these “correlations” used by psychologists become very weak associations if one uses more rigorous entropy methods. Permalink 6:07 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb One sub-explanation. The other is nonlinearity: nonlinear correlation means .5 is almost 0. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1110279033890267136   Permalink 6:02 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb 1- Once you look into these correlations, you see that below .8 they can be meaningless. https://twitter.com/AmirSariaslan/status/1132694130553950211   Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 May 2019

@NilsPetersen80 @nntaleb inspiring speech. Trials and error are “our” successstory. Could listen for hours. https://twitter.com/EL2019Antwerp/status/1132952193580052480   Permalink 3:38 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb Do not conflate nationalism and decentralization. Both voters and politicians can be fooled by labels. Permalink 2:31 AM – 27 May 2019

@dwnhogendoorn There’s a clear self-affinity between autophagy and a regenerative urban waste disposal. Looking for good, category crossing resources on autophagy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autophagy   Permalink 12:38 AM – 27 May 2019

@nntaleb Borges’ post in @bill_easterly https://twitter.com/bill_easterly/status/1132383150724661248   Permalink 6:30 AM – 26 May 2019

@nntaleb Words and languages are created by people with #Skininthegame: farmers, hunters, traders, prostitutes, carpenters, dancers, & builders. Not by linguists, academics, scribes, bureaucrats, librarians, grammarians, & other acroparasites. [Inspired by Borges & @bill_easterly] Permalink 11:48 PM – 25 May 2019

@Mangan150 Some people objected when I said that the establishment doesn’t want you healthy, saying that it’s not a conspiracy – though I didn’t say it was. But the actions of Facebook in deleting a low-carb group, likely at the behest of Big Food, make it look like – what? Permalink 5:05 PM – 25 May 2019

@PaulSkallas “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb https://twitter.com/pkerin/status/1132356621169057792   Permalink 2:16 PM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Although, after a wet lunch pic.twitter.com/xXIdLKG812 Permalink 6:34 AM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Mykonos: a destination for people who have way too many trees at home AND want to go to the beach. Permalink 5:19 AM – 25 May 2019

@nntaleb Mykonos: reminiscent of the Lebanese deforestation of 1917 during the Ottoman blocade. pic.twitter.com/jdAHSZ410L Permalink 1:43 AM – 25 May 2019

@semacks “It is always suspicious when a person’s ideas line up perfectly to a specified party….” I only wish this didn’t describe 90%+ of people who comment on public policy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1131674858658639895   Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 May 2019

@dougalpollux https://www.theamericanconservative.com/urbs/traditional-cities-are-more-resilient-than-modern-buildings/   #antifragility Permalink 7:22 AM – 24 May 2019

@nntaleb Closer pic.twitter.com/x2FuTtsJZV Permalink 10:26 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- I do not hide that I am writing a political code. My own. No explanations, no arguments. No attempts at convincing. Take it or leave it. pic.twitter.com/4JJEw9myCX Permalink 2:34 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb 2- People have a hard time shedding their legal system. Napoleon lost; his code stayed, even spread to countries Napoleon never invaded! (Rather, the code of Cambaceres). Lesson: write a tight, coherent code. We are codifying the #PrecautionaryPrinciple Make it indispensable. Permalink 1:42 PM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb THREAD 1-Christianity couldn’t spread like Islam into Central Asia, Africa. It offered no law for traders. Rome (&Berytus) had the law. So Christianity stayed limited to around the Roman empire. The Savafids could not convert out w/o losing the legal system. So they adapted. Permalink 1:35 PM – 23 May 2019

@BrankoMilan Trump (so far) likes to talk military, but not to use it–which is a major improvement upon W and most likely upon what Hillary would have done. https://twitter.com/m_orenstein/status/1131245499892338690   Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 May 2019

@RalphNader Still waiting. -R https://twitter.com/RalphNader/status/1129456063537926144   Permalink 7:50 AM – 23 May 2019

@TMFStoffel It’s funny how once people have skin in the game, virtue signaling ceases and true colors shine through. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/1131564431257886727   Permalink 7:45 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb Northern Phoenicia: the best gym in the world in my ancestral village. Convinced the owners to try teaching ⁦@SS_strength⁩ ⁦cc:@CoachRippetoe⁩ pic.twitter.com/eoHuw6VezT Permalink 7:32 AM – 23 May 2019

@OndPr Toute la campagne des européennes du Rassemblement National peut se resumer à un seul mot: Localisme. Au RN on s’inspire des idées de @nntaleb. https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1131283712203792384   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb We need to put an upper limit for RWRI returns. https://twitter.com/jaffer22915438/status/1131525923277295616   Permalink 5:00 AM – 23 May 2019

@TalebWisdom Thursday Wisdom: “If someone’s insults’ bother you; it is evidence that you respect him.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:20 AM – 23 May 2019

@nntaleb It doesn’t mean banning free speech, but banning nonpublic contact with elected officials and government decision makers. All discussions between paid advocates and goverment pple should be made public AND easily accessible. Permalink 6:14 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb Unpaid advocacy is NOT professional lobbying. Permalink 5:46 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)? Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Permalink 5:39 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb In the light of the Monsanto scandal(s), should we ban paid professional lobbying (as a form of asymmetric tampering with democracy and governance)? Remember there are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels. Permalink 5:39 PM – 22 May 2019

@apgox No. As @nntaleb wrote, “When I don’t have skin in the game, I am usually dumb”. For example, if I took out contents insurance, I’d probably be less vigilant to secure my property. If I took out robot replacement insurance, I’d probably be more prone to being replaced by robots. Permalink 4:34 PM – 22 May 2019

@nntaleb Liver is #Lindy. Not so much muscle meat. https://twitter.com/LIHF_Living/status/1131069023385464837   Permalink 10:53 PM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb 3- Napoleon + Ate his meals in 10 min. He was also rushed in other activities where it is not recommended + Liked to “punish infrequently, but severely”. Reminds me to deliver & continue my ~4Y long dumping on that despicable @Noahpinion http://fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 9:58 PM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb Friends, if anyone is interested to help with a fundraiser for @TulsiGabbard next July in Westchester county, NY, please notify here. We need to help put her on the map before the arms merchants get to her. Permalink 9:26 AM – 21 May 2019

@nntaleb Mongolian here is written in Syriac https://twitter.com/incunabula/status/1130408407406587904   Permalink 3:21 PM – 20 May 2019

@nntaleb “No rumor is true until officially denied.” https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1130526242531364864   Permalink 10:37 AM – 20 May 2019

@ole_b_peters Expected utility theory tries to compute the future psychological consequences of the actions of your clones in parallel universes. Ergodicity economics tries to compute the future physical consequences of the actions of your younger self. What’s more relevant to you? Permalink 4:38 AM – 20 May 2019

@nntaleb Translation: a famous “businessman” from Naples offered French president Macron to “solve a problem” (or remove a “pebble from his shoes”), an offer Macron could not refuse. https://twitter.com/bruno_amable/status/1129852051494789120   Permalink 3:58 PM – 19 May 2019

@Morunoyo Rise Above Mount Lebanon 1/5 pic.twitter.com/4jAdKYznhg Permalink 8:51 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb Nationalism, the nation state, and Arabism destroyed the best, most sophisticated, most learned, most open-minded city in the Mediterranean. #localism #DeMediterraniation https://twitter.com/CCavafy/status/1130087688680411138   Permalink 5:32 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 11 “Arab” science wasn’t Arab, but Persian (Avicenna, Biruni, AlKhawarizmi (Algorithm), etc.), Syriac, Chaldean, from long traditions that preceded the Arab invasion. They just wrote in Arabic; Newton wrote in Latin but isn’t called “Italian”. Permalink 4:52 AM – 19 May 2019

@nntaleb Obama and Geithner gave banks the largest bonuses in 2010. Acroparasite Geithner later got a $$$ job with the industry. This has nothing to do with capitalism. I want Geithner in JAIL. https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1129752853315227652   Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb #Lindy https://twitter.com/kateantiquity/status/1129484824685813762   Permalink 1:02 PM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb When you sell options, treat the possible as likely. When you buy them, treat the likely as merely possible. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1129787561252139008   Permalink 11:34 AM – 18 May 2019

@rj7050 According to Taleb, ‘means’ of two distributions cannot be compared if one has fatter tails. In my experience of money management, I have not met a single investor who understands that, but money managers understand that and sell crap.@nntaleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb When you hedge, treat the possible as likely. When you speculate, treat the likely as merely possible. Permalink 9:35 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Nice Surprise Incerto now in 41 languages… Just signed the ARMENIAN contract. pic.twitter.com/WtKWUVLaXj Permalink 7:04 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Please mark my words. Neil Kashkari @neelkashkari is a DANGEROUS imbecile. https://twitter.com/wlwatts/status/1129058255207055360   Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 May 2019

@nntaleb Bayer’s Shady PR Firms: FleishmanHillard and Ketchum via @USRightToKnow https://usrtk.org/food-for-thought/bayers-shady-pr-firms-fleishmanhillard-and-ketchum/   Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 May 2019

@BenjaminNorton This propaganda is embarrassingly bad. Neo-McCarthyite hacks are implying anti-war candidate @TulsiGabbard is a Kremlin shill. Their “evidence”? Donations from renowned scholar Stephen F. Cohen and from a US peace activist who doesn’t want war with Russia https://www.thedailybeast.com/tulsi-gabbards-campaign-is-being-boosted-by-russophiles   Permalink 1:09 PM – 17 May 2019

@sahouraxo Why isn’t this bombshell story about #Syria’s #Douma front page news worldwide? Because it destroys the false narrative of the corporate press—the very same media now manufacturing lies for the latest regime change wars planned for #Iran and #Venezuela. https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/confirmed-chemical-weapons-assessment-contradicting-official-syria-narrative-is-authentic-fbcbf7ef281a   Permalink 11:25 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb FRIDAY INTERESTING MATH RIDDLE DU JOUR pic.twitter.com/UJwlnITMaC Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb Bloomberg Interview N N Taleb May 2019 https://youtu.be/4OfnsOT1ys8   via @YouTube Permalink 9:25 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb IMBECILES w/low comprehension abilities. It’s NOT saying entrepreneurs are “braver than troops”, only that in ALL fields risk takers need to be treated w/ respect by nonrisk takers who leech on them. Clearly there are degrees of risk taking. IMBECILES https://twitter.com/lyta_gold/status/1129406176427499520   Permalink 8:26 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb When people call you intelligent it is almost always because they agree with you. Otherwise, they would call you arrogant. Permalink 7:27 AM – 17 May 2019

@nntaleb Just posted a new paper Option Pricing Under Power Laws: A Robust Heuristic https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic?source=swp_share   via @academia Permalink 7:48 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb The problem of self employment Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb “No probability without ergodicity”. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1129023713641238528   Permalink 7:07 AM – 16 May 2019

@TulsiGabbard Trump promised to get the US out of “stupid wars.” But now he and John Bolton are on the brink of launching us into a very stupid and costly war with Iran. Join me in sending a strong message to President Trump: The US must NOT go to war with Iran. #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com/Q1sHDNwZSy Permalink 6:01 AM – 16 May 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY FRIDAY:The Mother of all Fat Tails: the log Pareto distribution Prompted by a discussion with @financequant It is not discussed in textbooks/web but easy to rederive. pic.twitter.com/ZyhLpTHCTC Permalink 4:25 AM – 16 May 2019

@normonics The #PrecautionaryPrinciple is necessary to save us from dangerous idiots with “good intentions” https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1065993396395880448   Permalink 4:20 PM – 15 May 2019

Fat Tony, Revenge, #Soulinthegame, Saudi Barbaria, Virtue, Yo Pinker, Aramaic | Twitter


@nntaleb The definition of a home: you are happy when you leave and you are also happy when you return. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Mar 2018

@nntaleb He has a surprise at the end! #Skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/973306516521541634   Permalink 2:43 PM – 12 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Yet they let into the UK the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria.https://twitter.com/caphoratius/status/973285051050921985   Permalink 2:29 PM – 12 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Friends, the NYT visibly reads this and CARES about SoschialMeedya as they CHANGED the book description in response to my online criticism… (Thet don’t like to be called idiots). pic.twitter.com/xcFuMVGA7X Permalink 12:44 PM – 12 Mar 2018

@RalphNader Ralph interviews Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) about his new book, ‘Skin in the Game,” about the role risk and reward plays not only in politics, but also our daily lives https://ralphnaderradiohour.com/skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 10:18 AM – 12 Mar 2018

@DrCirillo Another preview of the forthcoming work with @nntaleb. Take the number of conflicts in 1800-2000 with 500k+ casualties, using actual (rescaled by coeval population) data. 1800-1850: 5 (14) 1851-1900: 8 (20) 1901-1950: 14 (25) 1951-2000: 16 (20) Increase, decrease, the same? Test? Permalink 9:01 AM – 12 Mar 2018

@schotz Had someone come up to me and ask if I was Nassim Taleb. Found him on twitter (@nntaleb). Definitely my twitter Doppelganger. And he’s a stats guy! Permalink 7:05 AM – 12 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I will be presenting: 1) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   2) Something from the Fat tails project w/@DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/NECSI/status/973195835201740800   Permalink 7:01 AM – 12 Mar 2018

@ggreenwald There is now reportedly “doubt” about whether Mohammad bin Salman, in attacking other Saudi royals, was genuinely motivated by “a transparent, legal anti-corruption effort.” Did anyone other than Tom Friedman & David Ignatius not doubt this? pic.twitter.com/SdsPwQRduM Permalink 5:08 AM – 12 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) Doggedly determined revenge, particularly when delayed (and unexpected), is not a tit-for-tat to prevent repetition; it is to show others what to expect. Mediterraneans like revenge to be “a dish you try to only eat when cold”. Permalink 1:03 PM – 11 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Now @realDonaldTrump why are you ignoring very valuable and realistic economic advice from @JustinWolfers who makes a living from … charitable contributions? #Skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/972885021118947330   Permalink 12:40 PM – 11 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, correction for typo: “long after he has forgotten about it” shoud be “long after he fuhgodaboudit” Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Mar 2018

@nntaleb “Start by being warm, pleasant, & generous w/every person you meet; but if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him; & if he messes w/you, remember to keep messing w/him long after he has forgotten about it”. Silver Rule of Fat Tony in #SkinInTheGame Permalink 10:30 AM – 11 Mar 2018

@danielnyari the contention about campus free speech activism was always about the minority mob, not whether it’s widespread. straw-man. The question is whether the minority rule matters in influencing the majority. I think @nntaleb has answered that quite eloquently.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 8:57 AM – 11 Mar 2018

@jw_excel Graduate confirms @nntaleb’s view of business degrees by suing her university for £60,000 over her ‘Mickey Mouse’ degree in international business strategy.http://dailym.ai/2tE7DV2   Permalink 5:58 AM – 11 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) THREAD I am reading B****t Jobs by @davidgraeber. Effectively if you have the soul of an artisan (cabinet maker), working as paper shuffler will make you miserable. Note that 10% of Americans are self employed, numbers dropping w/modernity. #Soulinthegame = artisan. Permalink 5:54 AM – 11 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, 1) how do you know it is “ripping the book apart” if you read the review NOT the book? 2) Replace “war” with “violence” as this is the context. 3) Pleaaaaaaaase do NOT read my book as you are not fit to read books. Permalink 4:54 AM – 11 Mar 2018

@GKeferstein I am a doctor. Same in field of medicine. Currently it’s 30% practice and 70% academia. Should be 80% practice and 20% academia. Medicine is a craft. Education should be treated as such. There should be doctors and medical scientist. Different fields. Different paths. Permalink 4:28 PM – 10 Mar 2018

@zeinshami11 @nntaleb They’ve been reading antifragile in Europehttps://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/972619359834210305   Permalink 3:57 PM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb How Permalink 3:00 PM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Imagine that someone else than @realDonaldTrump were elected & did EXACTLY the same things he did —except that the statements & tweets were speechwritten by Obama. What would have MSM reacted? #Skininthegame = observe actions not tawk Permalink 2:58 PM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Why is it that academics and people who tawk and never do have trouble with the notion of #Skininthegame? They mistake incentives for … evolution. https://twitter.com/decision_spark/status/954021123850633216   All: @CFCamerer, @PTetlock, @R_Thaler @decision_spark klueeeeless. Permalink 10:48 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb This propaganda from Saudi Barbaria won’t work. We have BRONZE AGE genes, current genes and no match in DNA to this BS. @PZallouahttps://twitter.com/Abunass3r/status/972481465807142918   Permalink 8:56 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb @shahanSean Permalink 8:39 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb We know from DNA that this map of “Arab tribes” is a fabrication. Complete fabrication.https://twitter.com/abdm7771/status/972468717153120258   Permalink 8:38 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Maybe the @FT’s @johngapper should have done his homework and spoken to judges (I did). Or read comments on judges on the book. Or perhaps just read the book.https://twitter.com/hwtnnn/status/972507365407936513   Permalink 8:23 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@SJosephBurns “Traders, when they make profits, have short communications; when they lose they drown you in details, theories, and charts.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:20 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb “The Skin in the Game Derangement Syndrome” (RENAMED)https://medium.com/incerto/the-controversy-around-skin-in-the-game-6d46416ee47f   Permalink 7:07 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The New Testament was written in what Nietzsche calls the “bad Greek” of Syria, in Antioch Permalink 4:01 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Christianity was born in Syria. Remember.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/972250427277398017   Permalink 3:36 AM – 10 Mar 2018

@financequant Another example that dealing with fat tails requires a different set of tools than those taught in “standard” probability and statistics. Many decisions, particularly in governments and in quasi-government NGOs, are based on deeply flawed interpretations of the data.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972089907991711746   Permalink 2:53 PM – 9 Mar 2018

@nntaleb https://share.podclipper.com/econtalk-nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-rationality-risk-and-skin-in-the-game.html?start_ms=610820&end_ms=732610   Permalink 12:00 PM – 9 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Who is this Boss, @desertnaut?https://twitter.com/desertnaut/status/972168770012827648   Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Mr Giligan, @tomgilligan, director of @HooverInst can you confirm whether you support scientific fraud/misconduct by your fellow Henry I. Miller @henryImiller? (see thread) Permalink 8:50 AM – 9 Mar 2018

@haghadi “The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding.” ~ @nntaleb #skininthegame Permalink 6:34 AM – 9 Mar 2018

@nntaleb These women took risk. Virtue resides in risk taking, not in signaling/tawking. #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/Elif_Safak/status/972090717853057024   Permalink 4:50 AM – 9 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The Fat Tails Estimators Project has been very active. w/@DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/TMpcq6pCLw Permalink 4:41 AM – 9 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Interestingly, the word “frata” in Lebanese comes from the Phoenician root, as p’rot = break into small change. It is a mystery how Jastrow knew so much about Phoenician. Permalink 5:55 PM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb My dream is for @realDonaldTrump to stop in Teheran on the way back, just to save on fuel.https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/971921200644435969   Permalink 5:38 PM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The first round we showed that @sapinker had NO evidence to make his claims (like saying: this moved by 1/20th of a standard deviation, let’s write a book!) The second time we may hint that the opposite of what he is saying is true. cc:@BillGates Permalink 4:53 PM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Yo Pinker, @sapinker, get prepared for a second round. Cc:@BillGateshttps://twitter.com/drcirillo/status/971886554632384512   Permalink 3:35 PM – 8 Mar 2018

@EconTalker From this week’s EconTalk: Listen to @nntaleb explain why skin in the game is not about incentives for him, but filtering:https://share.podclipper.com/econtalk-nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-rationality-risk-and-skin-in-the-game.html?start_ms=2988600&end_ms=3085360   Permalink 3:33 PM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that even Hebrew philologists think תעריף comes from Arabic (it is tariff in Heb.), mistaking the root 3RF (knowledge) for the Phoenician (YRF) “sharing a piece of the merchandise”. cc:@KarlreMarks pic.twitter.com/ZwdkYNcNDx Permalink 2:21 PM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The origin is actually a Phoenician Mercantile term. The Arabs shamelessly claim other people’s discoveries as their own; abetted by the erudition-free IQ-free Arabists. Bravo @GeorgeJNasr for getting it. pic.twitter.com/MlpFJBuWcp Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath I love Markov chains. Simple and unifying Permalink 1:48 PM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Was fixed. Permalink 10:58 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@georgeeaton Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Unless warmongers are more exposed to dying than others it’s the equivalent of reckless drivers being isolated from the risks of reckless driving.”https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/observations/2018/03/i-hope-goldman-sachs-bankruptcy-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-game   Permalink 9:48 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@turlevnon Leš meš l’leğa l’lebnéniyé leğa rasmiyé l’lebnén? #SûalJarî. pic.twitter.com/zHJ1L4zGD9 Permalink 9:21 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb This is my point of discussion with @bryan_caplan Hobbysists -> Technology -> Science not reverse arrow.https://twitter.com/SpencerBaum1/status/971795952280350721   Permalink 9:15 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb GPA is a test that flunks reality. Wittgenstein’s ruler: you use the ruler to measure the table; can also use the table to measure the ruler. When results are far from the measurement, it is the measurement that’s wrong. GPA may work w/salarypeople, academics & other captives.https://twitter.com/ericozkan1/status/970370465129730048   Permalink 8:51 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Delenda Goldman Sachshttps://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/971595132536606721   Permalink 7:56 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of No Two-Tail Runs https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/NoRunningTails.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sTgMrKUahW”>  pic.twitter.com/sTgMrKUahW Permalink 7:02 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Mistake: max deadlift was ~400 not 330. Permalink 4:01 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb “I hope for Goldman Sachs’ bankruptcy”: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Gamehttps://www.newstatesman.com/culture/observations/2018/03/i-hope-goldman-sachs-bankruptcy-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-game   Permalink 3:50 AM – 8 Mar 2018

@nntaleb As usual, the origin is Aramaic. Cc:@KarlreMarkshttps://twitter.com/karlremarks/status/971416075060596736   Permalink 6:07 PM – 7 Mar 2018

@nntaleb THE END OF THE MEDIA So Skin in the Game made the NYT Bestseller’s List without a single US book review, with a single book lecktchur in NY. All thanks to my twitter friends (and enemies). Characteristically, these NYT idiots still managed to mis-describe the book. pic.twitter.com/sPqPPVmazD Permalink 2:24 PM – 7 Mar 2018

@DrCirillo It is extremely fascinating: you can increase or decrease the time span, and the distribution stays the same. Permalink 12:38 PM – 7 Mar 2018

@DrCirillo Now, focusing on 20th century, using a more complete data set we are working on, we observe the same distribution, in a purely fractal pattern. Apparently no finite mean, extreme fat-tailedness. The long peace?! Really? pic.twitter.com/Ksc6QE5wyu Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of crossing a bridge https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/CrossingBridge.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KxKifPtc7W”>  pic.twitter.com/KxKifPtc7W Permalink 8:08 AM – 7 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Correkshion: It was not @davidpapineau but another philosopher. All these philosophers have weird foreign names! Permalink 7:05 AM – 7 Mar 2018

@nntaleb There is this BS in this “disagreebleness” scale used by psychologists, unconditional of domain. Like most psych categorizations, BS. Many are socially gentle but intellectually rigorous & no-nonsense: others nasty in person but appear gentle in public . BS! cc:@KlingBlog Permalink 5:47 AM – 7 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Does “PHILOSOPHY” have a problem? The Massimo Pigliuci (“Klueless Massimo”) problem: dissertation from twitter comments, even “philosopher” @davidpapineau comments without knowing what the subject is about.https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 4:39 AM – 7 Mar 2018

@GhassanDahhan And it has cost a lot of Yemeni lives.https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/971362089531932672   Permalink 4:38 AM – 7 Mar 2018

@financequant “I am, at the Fed level, libertarian; at the state level, Republican; at the local level, Democrat; and at the family and friends level, a socialist.”–Geoff and Vince Graham (quoted by @nntaleb, Skin in the Game) Permalink 8:10 PM – 6 Mar 2018

@GeertNoels The lack of good governance of the Trump Administration gets more attention in the EU media than the lack of good governance of the EU. The #Selmayr case should get a lot more attention and disapproval.http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2018/03/04/martin-selmayr-braque-la-commission-europeenne_1633807   Permalink 10:42 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@yaneerbaryam Here is a list of false claims about GMOs pic.twitter.com/cKIfJh58Gb Permalink 8:17 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@normonics pic.twitter.com/Tx5M1koP0M Permalink 7:57 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@thinkingnuggets Part Two – The Biggest Takeaways from Nassim Taleb’s (@nntaleb) Book “Skin In The Game”http://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/03/06/biggest-takeaways-from-nassim-talebs-book-skin-in-the-game-part-two/   Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@yaneerbaryam Here is one illustration of the difference between breeding and transgenics (GMOs) pic.twitter.com/k9m0uht0lz Permalink 7:44 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) I am also FED UP seeing an ad for Pinker’s book pop up on @amazon every time I am buying stuff. pic.twitter.com/BQHKai8mRc Permalink 7:42 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The @guardian retracted on an Op-Ed style article explaining my own side of Skin in the Game after seeing the below. (Republished on Medium) Unethical journalism doesn’t work in the age of social media.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/970677174213791746   Permalink 6:52 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, @realDonaldTrump, what are you doooooooooooooing?https://twitter.com/thehill/status/970997689910480896   Permalink 6:27 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 4) Note the same typical @sapinker conflations: a) 2 classes of AI (busted by @elonmusk ) b) 2 classes of probability (thin tails and fat tails) c) 2 classes of breeding (slow vs transgenic): jumping from the 34th floor window not the same risk class as taking the stairs. etc. Permalink 5:54 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) Our precautionary principle. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Note the recent trumpeted GMO meta-analysis of 6000 papers had only… 50 per study, and NO tail risk. Note that none of the “Nobels” were into tail risk. Includes literature etc. Permalink 5:29 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@GuruAnaerobic My friend attended the #RWRI seminar in Feb – just for the last day (he had been at a 3-day med conf in Barcelona). He’s been involved in the Stent industry for over ten yrs. Just one day blew apart the statistical concepts he’d learnt in the medical field.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/971004358539333633   Permalink 5:20 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) Replace Pinker’s book w/ 75 informative graphs by @MaxCRoser who should publish book without words. Preferably in color. But remember that data gathering is not data *science*. Permalink 5:17 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) Was not aiming to read @sapinker’s book, saw this on GMOs: he is as klueless about komplexity & nonlinearity as he is about elementary statistical significance. The text is full of BS (to him science=scientism), it doesn’t match the pics. pic.twitter.com/hR9yjHQTih Permalink 5:17 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb My argument about convexity is here: https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility   Permalink 4:50 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb We are doing RWRI 8 on May 28 (5 days) in NYC http://www.realworldrisk.com   Scholarships are open. (And please don’t offer to improve the website. It is what it is.) Permalink 4:47 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Excellent argument by Bryan Caplan @bryan_caplan, but missed something central: convexity of trial-and-error & heuristic learning. I sort of wrote Antifragile using Kealy’s argument & transcending it. Would love a diskushshun/debate @tylercowen.https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691174652/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_SMONAb5ET7ASM   Permalink 4:34 AM – 6 Mar 2018

@goorha Just read @nntaleb in his new book #skininthegame. It’s the only book I have read while clapping, laughing and nodding all at the same time. Permalink 4:28 PM – 5 Mar 2018

@MrPeterEsho NNT is back @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/mpawlo/status/970337104076079106   Permalink 2:01 PM – 5 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Isocrates’ Rule of Symmetry: Treat other Nations the Way you Want to be Treated! #SkinintheGamehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-04/us-meddling-foreign-elections-cia-tradition-1948   Permalink 1:17 PM – 5 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The “good” journalist marker: someone who goes against the grain, goes against lobbies: Gary Taubes @garytaubes, Laura Rosen, @dannyhakim … and is ostracized by others for it. Some are heroes. Permalink 12:24 PM – 5 Mar 2018

@TheStalwart Since I believe in having #SkinInTheGame, I decided to confront @nntaleb, rather than just get into a dispute behind keyboards pic.twitter.com/NGhKfYo2Ev Permalink 10:37 AM – 5 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I get every day the confirmation that the only people who don’t despise journalists are journalists and (some of) their mothers. Permalink 10:06 AM – 5 Mar 2018

@FriedrichHayek This conversation between @nntaleb and @EconTalker may be the best Econtalk ever — Taleb and Russ flesh out important themes first introduced by Armen Alchian, inspired in part by Hayek https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty,_Evolution,_and_Economic_Theory  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/econtalk/id135066958?mt=2#episodeGuid=http%3A%2F%2Ffiles.libertyfund.org%2Fecontalk%2Fy2018%2FTalebrationality.mp3   Permalink 7:09 AM – 5 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I got tonnnnnnns of messages from authors thanking me for making journos accountable for their book reviews. In other words, putting back some symmetry with their #SkinInTheGamehttps://medium.com/incerto/the-controversy-around-skin-in-the-game-6d46416ee47f   Permalink 7:07 AM – 5 Mar 2018

@jeetsidhu_ “Skin in the Game” really hitting home right now! @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/rwsigzJb5p Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Two Coins: One Fair, one Biased https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoCoins.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HHhnyGjhkq”>  pic.twitter.com/HHhnyGjhkq Permalink 5:09 AM – 5 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I just published “What do I mean by Skin in the Game? My Own Version”https://medium.com/incerto/what-do-i-mean-by-skin-in-the-game-my-own-version-cc858dc73260   Permalink 5:06 AM – 5 Mar 2018

@ericozkan1 @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/wKcCjOtgvc Permalink 4:29 AM – 5 Mar 2018

@georgeeaton Corbyn has “skin in the game”. How Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s new book helps explain his appeal. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/03/meaning-corbynism   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iNZ7FDfEn5″>  pic.twitter.com/iNZ7FDfEn5 Permalink 4:14 AM – 5 Mar 2018

GMOs, Genetics, Boulder, Copts, Manchester, Levant Project, Ron Paul, journos, Las Vegas, Wolfram, Revenge | Twitter

@nntaleb Is it possible to find anyone in the State Department w/ minimal reasoning abilities, in other words not brain dead?https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/869691250261315584   Permalink 3:15 PM – 1 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Sleep deprivation leads to random sign inversions! Found even sharper bounds Yan et al (2014, 2017) https://journalofinequalitiesandapplications.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13660-017-1372-5   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eqBMmKr0jM”>  pic.twitter.com/eqBMmKr0jM Permalink 7:29 AM – 1 Jun 2017

@garyruskin The #MonsantoPapers on the front page of @LeMondefr in France. http://lemde.fr/2rtEAAK   http://bit.ly/2mJSyvq   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HVjYof76bE”>  pic.twitter.com/HVjYof76bE Permalink 7:04 AM – 1 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Jumping from 15th floor is just the same thing as taking the stairs, “just a bit quicker”? GMOs NOT same category as progressive tinkering Permalink 4:46 AM – 1 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Note that there has be NO Risk study for GMOs, NOT ONE. All Monsanto did instead was smear critics via shills. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 3:57 AM – 1 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Genetics work for populations given linearity of descent (haplo) But saying which genes => diseases/traits, NONONO.https://medium.com/incerto/where-you-cannot-generalize-from-knowledge-of-parts-continuation-to-the-minority-rule-ce96ca3c5739   Permalink 2:24 PM – 31 May 2017

@nntaleb Dietwald Clauss is hired by a PR firm to counter every comment on GMOs, demonize skeptics. He tried to infiltrate a picnic. Just Block. Permalink 12:10 PM – 31 May 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb The 2. and final strip on the topic of “misattributed causality” … still inspired by #Antifragile & #FooledByRandomness pic.twitter.com/VCDhkdISqG Permalink 10:37 AM – 31 May 2017

@nntaleb No pic.twitter.com/iW2tUeKPH5 Permalink 3:41 AM – 31 May 2017

@nntaleb …and if you don’t take risks there is absolutely nothing that can make you big.https://twitter.com/NaviStarLegal/status/869861523837026305   Permalink 3:26 AM – 31 May 2017

@nntaleb This solves the puzzle: French connection isn’t from crusaders (cross-entropy mito<haplo) but Neolithic/Bronze Age Eurasian migration pic.twitter.com/atrlLCdEoQ Permalink 3:25 AM – 31 May 2017

@M_Gauche Ummm, has @nntaleb seen this article yet? Figure he’d have done a victory lap by now:https://www.theverge.com/2017/5/30/15713536/ancient-egyptian-mummies-dna-genome-sequencing-near-east   Permalink 2:13 PM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb Q: Why is differential entropy not used in genetic distance when it is the most natural way, as DNA IS Information? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_entropy   Permalink 11:56 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb Also it looks like the Levant was settled with Northerners before Akkadian invasion (few men), hence diff mito-haplo, even for Muslims. Permalink 8:45 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb The French link is from the Crusades. As to Cyprus, it is closer on the Y chromosomes. Permalink 7:56 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb We need Iran and Turkey Permalink 7:25 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb Genetic distance for Lebanese using differential entropy on mitocondrial DNA using @PZalloua ‘s data. GoodPlaneride pic.twitter.com/4VCeTxksos Permalink 7:23 AM – 30 May 2017

@nntaleb It doesn’t mean that these at the top have 50% of the wealth (about 100 million for 50%) but that they have more than the bottom 50% Permalink 10:20 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb Found something interesting attributed to drawdowns, from the works of @financequant Robert Frey modelled PTV & found no change historically pic.twitter.com/1Bp5uqGiiN Permalink 7:09 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb Heading straight from airport so might be jetlagged. follow up tp https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.02369.pdf   making the tails even worse. Permalink 6:57 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb My BBQ minitalk tom. in NY (frm plane) on why it is error to use historical returns w/o extrapolating beyond maxima e.g.@WGoetzmann et al. pic.twitter.com/wLMndmzzux Permalink 6:51 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder v/s Messy: The Power of Disorder to Transform Our Lives @TimHarford (w/o attribution) Permalink 12:54 AM – 29 May 2017

@nntaleb They show concentration of of wealth among a few: as if these TOOK away from others rather than ADDED to the pot Wealth ≠ Rent Seeking !https://twitter.com/amazingmap/status/844508707849302016   Permalink 11:11 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb Does Boulder have a resort/vacation feel to it? Permalink 10:57 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb Saddest thing abt the Weinstein affair: he has to specify that he is “on the left”, as if it were a requirement to express an opinion. Permalink 10:46 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb Most “humanities” profs have minimal erudition; they spent their time studying THEORIES made by other profs. Universities killed humanities Permalink 2:09 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb “Study the classics” and “study the classics under academics” selected via “papers” are two different things. Permalink 12:02 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb Most humanities as taught in colleges are BS. My only academic association is with an engineering school. Permalink 12:00 PM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb The university system is on its way to go bust. It will regroup as separate technical schools devoid of “gender” & other BS studies.https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/868894401229094912   Permalink 11:39 AM – 28 May 2017

@IndiTrades Examples of misattribution of discoveries/developments &/or cornering of credit by “Intellectuals” via @normonics @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/PXV9coVkey Permalink 7:38 AM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb A quantitative comparison of spread of BS vs. NonBS Tweets by the same person.https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/868596817251803138   Permalink 5:22 AM – 28 May 2017

@nntaleb The UK would have been a better place with Steve running 10 Downing St.https://twitter.com/stevehiltonx/status/868541930639982593   Permalink 12:32 PM – 27 May 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb “Mistaking the merely associative with the causal.” another great lesson from #Antifragile and #FooledByRandomness pic.twitter.com/XG4kpQJQ4b Permalink 10:58 AM – 27 May 2017

@nntaleb Friends, a question. What’s the most representative vacation place in Colorado for hiking/flaneuring/eating? Permalink 6:31 AM – 27 May 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Merchandising of Virtue”https://medium.com/p/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 3:19 AM – 27 May 2017

@nntaleb Finally, thanks, the new Intro for a few hours. Only info needed is “smoothness” for many ideas to squeeze in it. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/SkinExcerpts.pdf   Permalink 6:55 PM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb See Yaneer @yaneerbaryam work: better fences make better neighbors. Permalink 6:14 PM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb When @Nigel_Farage told EuroMPs: “None of you had a proper job”, they didn’t get it. To get it, you need to have to make a P/L, not a salary Permalink 4:30 PM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb The only solution for the Copts is a self-governing enclave. Other Egyptians call that “sectarian”. F*** them. Mabiḣikkak illa ḋufrak,https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/868234076037238789   Permalink 4:00 PM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb With @sez_dss in a pastry store in Amioun. Owner told us that I looked like the Black Swan author who lives in America. “Maybe a little bit” Permalink 5:51 AM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb “Never give weapons to a fool. You may harm him and harm others.” Permalink 2:33 AM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb Esseleḣ bi’id elḱara byijraḣ (about arm sales) Permalink 2:32 AM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb …rather “because” ‘body slamming’ journalisthttps://twitter.com/anon_eu/status/867995624225910784   Permalink 1:32 AM – 26 May 2017

@nntaleb The gist: If you have the courage to put your intellectual integrity before your reputation, nothing can break you.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b   Permalink 3:14 PM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb If you want to make your children feel better, much better after losing a game of chess, show them Kasparov’s geopolitical tweets.https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/867822092762402816   Permalink 12:40 PM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb Interventionistas: Nothing worse than dogs playing wolves pic.twitter.com/NvuKTtqdkO Permalink 6:58 AM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb There is nothing more bewildering than dogs claiming to be wolves. pic.twitter.com/gzEtnyqpxi Permalink 5:32 AM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb Thanks for the comments: I smoothed out the Prologue. Reposting for 3-4 hours. Ignore typos: interest is smoothness. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/SITG-Excerpts2.pdf   Permalink 4:40 AM – 25 May 2017

@nntaleb I’ve spent most of my life explaining/proving that Eastern Med != Middle East. Near East perhaps. Trump is right from intuition.https://twitter.com/yashar/status/866757128501035008   Permalink 6:23 PM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb So he defines “elderly” as a category that is old, but not… old? Find a person between 2 thresholds: old but not old, poor but not poor. Permalink 6:01 PM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb A “poor” “elderly” person has Medicaid & Medicare, for which we pay > 1.2 Trillion. If this fellow fooling himself?https://twitter.com/SteveRattner/status/867515245836857345   Permalink 5:55 PM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb In Lebanon, everyone I meet is thrilled abt @realDonaldTrump “stripping” the Saudis & asking me “why didn’t he make a stop in Qatar”? Permalink 5:39 PM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Can someone answer his question? Eventually when you support Al Qaeda in Syria, it will come back to visit you in Manchester & … Foolshttps://twitter.com/ShehabiFares/status/867434742458839041   Permalink 5:24 PM – 24 May 2017

@EricRWeinstein SJWs targeting my brother Prof. @BretWeinstein pulled 1 video of their bullying as it went viral. So here’s another: https://www.facebook.com/blakub/videos/10212714974211358/  https://twitter.com/EricRWeinstein/status/867432790588923905   Permalink 2:39 PM – 24 May 2017

@bostoncakepan In “Antifragile,” @nntaleb shows that, empirically, university research is a terrible investment. Tinkerers discover things, not researchershttps://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/867378576030650373   Permalink 6:59 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Note 1: What I am bring: languages follow a minority rule, genes a majority rule. (Linguists dont’ get it.)https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 6:04 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb 6 Maronites are indigenous of Mount Leb, religion migrated not pple (investigating oth groups) 7 Languages travel independent of genes Permalink 5:59 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb 4 Arabs did not settle in the coastal Levant 5 Data shows distinction between Canaanites & Hebrews, doesn’t contradict Biblical claims Permalink 5:53 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb 1 Phoenicians aren’t the “pple of the sea” 2 North Levant genetics heavily Greco-Iranian 3 Myth of Europa backed by Levant-Greek migrations Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Science gives us a real map of roots, better than BS laden history (Salibi) or the fake-science called linguistics. 7 Myths abt Levant Permalink 5:40 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Zalloua has 12K DNA samples, largest DB for Phoenicia. He just hired me as his data scientist for the Levant Project (unaware of my temper). pic.twitter.com/9pG7C5FpUV Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb BTW Fooled by Randomness was self-edited. Permalink 5:19 AM – 24 May 2017

@nntaleb Don’t tell my publisher. I am posting the first 50 pages of SITG for 3-4 hours, for comment on readability/clarity. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/introSITG.pdf   Permalink 6:44 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb If you want more evidence that finance academics still don’t know that they are unfit.https://twitter.com/gkaram/status/867183614034890753   Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb An academic, even like Bernanke, lecturing about markets is like an assistant nail salon technician lecturing on brain surgery.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/867179616724807680   Permalink 5:51 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb The argument for federalism pic.twitter.com/8AkBClYZAi Permalink 5:40 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb Dershowitz is a liberal who thinks; immune ag the Trump Logical Hallucination Syndrome. http://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/05/20/alan-dershowitz-pulverizes-liberal-anti-trump-russia-theories-and-nearly-leaves-carlson-speechless/   via @chrisenloe @theblaze Permalink 5:15 PM – 23 May 2017

@EHSANI22 3-Law & Order has returned. Government services are back. #Aleppo residents now joke that the place looks like Switzerland in comparison Permalink 4:17 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb Evidence from Koura shows that genes of Christians are Greco-Anatolian. More TK Also Phoenicians & Assyrians were not “Semitic” by DNA, pic.twitter.com/4C6NL4vvLq Permalink 4:10 PM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb Here is the derivation for a,b,c>1, thanks to a plane ride to Northern Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/edB6S67N5G Permalink 3:23 PM – 23 May 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Suicide bombers: “Putting the skin on terrorists” from 6th May. @nntaleb @TRobinsonNewErahttps://medium.com/incerto/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb   Permalink 12:44 AM – 23 May 2017

@nntaleb Hopefully it will help convince the administration it’s not Putin-Assad-Iran-Catherine the Great but Wahhabi grown stuff. Permalink 4:36 PM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb You can bet it’s not the Iranians just accused of suporting “terrorism”, but grown in some Saudi sponsored madrassah.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/866796747045179393   Permalink 4:28 PM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb No no no no nohttps://medium.com/incerto/where-you-cannot-generalize-from-knowledge-of-parts-continuation-to-the-minority-rule-ce96ca3c5739?source=linkShare-f138bf5466fe-1495482249   Permalink 12:44 PM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb On my way to Northern Phoenicia to work on final draft of #SkinInTheGame Planted ~300 olive trees. pic.twitter.com/UxS2RmlNAJ Permalink 11:56 AM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb Maltese has been successful in separating from Arabic. https://mt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lingwa_Maltija   Fawwato filmet franjieh xa liġton w bye7ko mitl ma byektbo Permalink 6:27 AM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb La’anno fi kilmet bil ṫ w bil ż w bil ḋ ma bitbayyin maxkun bi tari’tkun. Bass nazzel el font w bitcuf cu ahyan Permalink 6:22 AM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb Isocrates’ Dynamic #SkinInTheGame Conduct yourself toward your parents as you would have your children conduct themselves toward you Permalink 6:19 AM – 22 May 2017

@nntaleb xam jarreb estaxmel hayda la’ktub liġitna xa tari’ LLL (cuf ‘llink taḣt wl fonts) Fi ‘lwaḣad ye’ra ceġle hayk? http://www.lebaneselanguage.org/lll-system/lebanese-latin-letters/   Permalink 6:38 PM – 21 May 2017

@RonPaul Many thanks to @zerohedge for picking up our Liberty Report interview with @nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-21/taleb-state-department-interventionistas-face-zero-risk-their-bad-decisions   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HrxAsh9hCz”>  pic.twitter.com/HrxAsh9hCz Permalink 3:48 PM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb By the same fake-generalization, BS vendors try to portray the public as being “anti-expert” instead of being anti BS vendors. Permalink 3:04 PM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb Where the pseudo left prove that: they hate Trump more than they love Saudi Arabia. (Revelation of preferences)https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/866001274700955649   Permalink 12:56 PM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb As I just said:https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/866001274700955649   Permalink 12:17 PM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb Every time I bust a BS vendor his reaction is that I call “everyone else” an idiot. No, sorry Mr Nichols: BS vendor is BS vendor.https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/866355195168555008   Permalink 11:39 AM – 21 May 2017

@JohnMinehan1 Now, Let us re-tweet “Ceterum censeo Wahabistanem esse delendam.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/866299308014010368   Permalink 7:59 AM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb But the main accomplishment of @realDonaldTrump’s trip is to rally his detractors against Saudi Barbaria. Now recite: “Delenda Wahabistan”. Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb Citing @davidgraeber on how Goldman Sachs is communist from within pic.twitter.com/9oflQxZwao Permalink 5:48 AM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb Expain to me why I shd read an “expert analysis” on “WHY TRUMP WON” by pple who thought it was impossible. #2ndOrder http://resources.hoover.org/why-trump-won/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=look1&utm_campaign=whytrumpwon   Permalink 5:03 AM – 21 May 2017

@nntaleb The Saudis make @realDonaldTrump feel he is a king, while Washington & West make him feel he doesn’t belong. He now owes them something. Permalink 4:00 PM – 20 May 2017

@nntaleb What @realDonaldTrump is doing: sucking in the last $100 billion before the bankruptcy of SaudiBarbaria. If anything, cruel to the Saudis.https://twitter.com/OAmKorAr/status/865974737910079488   Permalink 10:21 AM – 20 May 2017

@nntaleb Interesting reading by Mercier and Sperber. “Smart”, i.e. SocietHarvardified pple are just better at explaining their hallucinations. pic.twitter.com/5JUYHvtjeY Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 May 2017

@nntaleb Cherrypicked analogies as hallucination aid. I wrote an entire book, Fooled by Randomness, 2001, on seeing mosques in the clouds.https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/865660847670018048   Permalink 6:39 AM – 20 May 2017

@nntaleb I find puzzling that one needs to run & pay for, a study to figure out that journos become journos BECAUSE they have severe deficits.https://twitter.com/MDiPaolaMD/status/865728365617197056   Permalink 5:45 PM – 19 May 2017

@Cernovich They are gonna hate you anyway, @realDonaldTrump. Now is the time for boldness. Pardon Julian Assange / @wikileaks. #PardonJulian Permalink 2:28 PM – 19 May 2017