Tag Archives: BS Vendors

Peer-Review, Revenge, Tetlock , Mandelbrot, Asness, BS Vendors, Science | Twitter

On 6/1/20 Twitter retired ‘old twitter’ and broke my amateurish code that scraped NNT’s tweets. Working on a new version.

Tail risk of contagious diseases

@nntaleb (A boring dispute w/academics; ignore) Thanks @HietanenPaavo for sending this. Turns out @PTetlock is lying, claiming I made a private dispute public. There was NO private dispute; he just started a public harrassment campaign (“the “). Paavo linked https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40nntaleb%20%40ptetlock%20until%3A2016-12-31%20since%3A2000-12-31&src=typed_query&f=live   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Y32H5JgT3w”>  pic.twitter.com/Y32H5JgT3w Permalink 9:16 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@threadreaderapp Hi, here is your unroll: @nntaleb: MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249296844712218624.html   Talk to you soon. Permalink 8:58 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb A reminder that 1) Science is hard, 2) Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine.html?smid=tw-share   Permalink 7:04 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb Philologist friends, Is the root for מופת in anyway linked to muppistu in Akkadian? If not, what is the Semitic (or non-Semitic) root? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1265823241240825863   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KADXlrKfTW”>  pic.twitter.com/KADXlrKfTW Permalink 6:13 AM – 1 Jun 2020

@nntaleb My full time professional specialty is squid ink. The rest are hobbies. https://twitter.com/reiyashi/status/1265265022328078337   Permalink 7:24 PM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile: I am offering PRECISE solutions. It is just that charlatans don’t like them. https://twitter.com/GavinChait/status/1267182088396177414   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PRpEnjp1OO”>  pic.twitter.com/PRpEnjp1OO Permalink 1:45 PM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Things that went intellectually bankrupt over the pandemics & will hardly recover: Epidemiology Fortune cookie (positive) “evidence” base science Bureaucratic topdown structures: WHO, CDC, UK Group Rent seeking academia can no longer be financed. Universities will crumble. Permalink 11:59 AM – 31 May 2020

@DrCirillo Ottimo italiano, Nassim. Bravo. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1267164936049917952   Permalink 11:49 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades. Permalink 11:30 AM – 31 May 2020

@DrCirillo Qui, se interessa, parlo del rischio di coda nelle pandemie, sulla base del recente lavoro con @nntaleb. (the video is in Italian) https://youtu.be/KF24MTJC3Uw   Permalink 11:19 AM – 31 May 2020

@paolarebeiz Results of Thawra petitions and protests to UNESCO. UNESCO is working on halting the contruction site!!! thank you all for your support! #UnescoKnowsWhatsRight #SaveNahrElKalb https://www.facebook.com/103993277992995/posts/117670636625259/   https://whc.unesco.org/en/news/2116   Permalink 7:48 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Benefits of Quarantine: No restaurants: no seed oil, no bad grains. + More time to bust BS Vendors, read novels. + Weight loss 12lbs, resting heart rate 49 BPM. pic.twitter.com/EtignGJFkn Permalink 6:32 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Pope Francis : Stop the destruction of a historical and cultural site in Nahr El-Kalb, Lebanon! – Sign the Petition! http://chng.it/wyBSz2Nb   via @Change Permalink 6:28 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Added to the book a comment on “evidence based” scientism https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UR13i0yq0B”>  pic.twitter.com/UR13i0yq0B Permalink 5:34 AM – 31 May 2020

@nntaleb Look at the reactions to the warnings in Jan. We had a barrage of idiots many of whom deleted their tweets. https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1266888997864865798   Permalink 5:44 PM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Takes very little effort to clean up as very few people cause most of the damage. However the strategy if to automate blocking of groups/friends as trolls operate in hordes. Very similar to viruse #FatTails. (Note that the same applies to BS vendors. Not many, but overactive) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1266794257324609536   Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb “Restaurants are concave. Limited upside, larger downside (like short volatility). Mega-fragile to events and circumstances; nonportable and illiquid”. https://twitter.com/blackswan969/status/1266788766766829574   Permalink 10:53 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) You all get organized, fight between one another (but no more blocking), etc. I will take care of the publishing (nonprofit). Permalink 10:14 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/Yz8O5JHGRJ Permalink 8:29 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb The point is that Fat Tonys and grandmothers don’t make the mistakes of those levels 0-3. Permalink 7:59 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we need to start a group to work on Lebanese (Levantine) language travel books for visitors diaspora. They usually go study Arabic taught by IYIs & can’t communicate. Published on Amzn @HsenAndil @Marcellenassif @turlevnon @Decafquest @Zzeghedrane @Extrachelle etc. pic.twitter.com/bPdt80DOWU Permalink 7:58 AM – 30 May 2020

@nntaleb The BS Vendors in probability. For those who don’t get my logic, here is a rank of knowledge in probability with level 0 Phil the rat @PTetlock and level 5 “Russian” probabilists. Unless one is Level 4, errors in probability can be harmful. pic.twitter.com/dvpKV56XMJ Permalink 6:39 AM – 30 May 2020

@ektrit @nntaleb @Extrachelle @GregorySMcMuray @Eleni_Co @Marcellenassif @byzantinepower https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1266656918128537601   Permalink 2:09 AM – 30 May 2020

@jdceulaer Ik schreef ook een essay over de catastrofe die corona heet, na lectuur van ⁦@nntaleb⁩ en gesprekken met ⁦@yaneerbaryam⁩ en ⁦@bslagter⁩. Over Zwarte Zwanen, Russische roulette en het mondmaskerdrama. https://www.demorgen.be/a-be3e8e41   Permalink 9:59 PM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb 100% of 200 worker test positive. Isn’t it a problem with a test that produces too many false positives? #Witgensteinsruler https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/every-single-worker-has-covid-at-one-u-s-farm-on-eve-of-harvest   via @business Permalink 5:21 PM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Bringing Risk Parity into this. It is a footnote since the entire apparatus of Modern Finance is busted. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JH6MGAskqB”>  pic.twitter.com/JH6MGAskqB Permalink 11:57 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Follow the least boring/most entertaining path. Nobody ever learned a new language from nerds. Twitter helps. Follow someone without translation. Or, better, fight with her/him to break the boredom. https://twitter.com/andradedanielbr/status/1266436642035978240   Permalink 11:39 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntalebbot “You can tell how uninteresting a person is by asking him whom he finds interesting.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:31 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Should I block @Mangan150 for defective logic & promoting harm? pic.twitter.com/mLBC9Jf7a6 Permalink 8:43 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb If you like them, wish them prosperity. If you dislike them, wish them extreme wealth. Permalink 8:39 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb I signed the petition letter to the IMF re:situation in Lebanon and invite you to join https://www.petitions.net/supporting_the_letter_of_the_lebanese_people_to_the_imf   Permalink 6:02 AM – 29 May 2020

@ComTradGuru 8 years later, this article remains one of our favorite portraits of Maestro @nntaleb (by @carolecadwalla) https://www.theguardian.com/books/2012/nov/24/nassim-taleb-antifragile-finance-interview   Permalink 12:38 AM – 29 May 2020

@nntaleb Un Decameron bilingue (italiano-spagnolo)! Per migliorare le due lingue. Sto cercando di piu! pic.twitter.com/noq9UACaR6 Permalink 6:41 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb For acceptance, we require a SINGLE paragraph bio. No fluff, etc. For scholarship, can be 1 ½ paragraphs. Permalink 12:55 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb RWRI 14: Will be online, but stretched over 2 weeks. August 10-21 weekdays 8:30-12 noon EST (3:30-7 PM Damascus time, 2:30-6 PM Palermo time) We accept bitcoins. No more 2 days, all 10 days. We offer 20-40% scholarships. 11 Instructors (list TBA) http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 12:54 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb BS vendors unite So Phil the rat @PTetlock enters a debate in a subject he knows NOTHING about, in a situation beyond his understanding (I was attacked by Asness who blew a fuse, not the opposite for saying the Ilmanen study was BS). Simply…because I busted him as a BS vendor pic.twitter.com/4qWhG2LdPK Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Lopez de Prado does not stop at academic credentials. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1266027198571569152?s=20   Permalink 8:32 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Evidence that at least 21,198 persons on Twitter do not understand meta-problems. #Russell #LiarParadox #Epimenedes #Godel https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1265610817271001088   Permalink 7:43 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb @fotpetr Permalink 4:15 AM – 28 May 2020

@nntaleb Looks like there is BEFORE and AFTER with @lopezdeprado after I blocked him for inflation of credentials (few citations to support a “most read” claim) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1264169363596365825   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/N8h9FEBaG0″>  pic.twitter.com/N8h9FEBaG0 Permalink 7:13 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Clearer pic.twitter.com/tIFInJ7ppD Permalink 6:58 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY PUZZLE Friends, help. @bmiloy is interested in meaning of מוֹפְתִ֗ים. Turns out 2 strange things 1) Why is מֹפְתִ֤ים also spelled מוֹפְתִ֗ים ? 2) The Hb Mofti מוֹפְתִי (exemplary) comes from the root מפְתִ (kotel), Why is MFTI مفتي with root FT’ فتا ? Permalink 6:52 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb If you EVER catch me discuss a book I haven’t read, I shut my Twitter acct & leave public life. (Exceptions: excerpts Das Kapital, Smith’s TMS, AlFarabi) (PS. I despise pple who discuss my ideas w/o having read my books.) Below: Read Pinker & other crap https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160676871622860800?s=20   Permalink 3:02 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb It seems to be a paradox because r has a finite mean but X has an infinite mean. cc: @spyrosmakrid @fotpetr Permalink 2:12 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Comment on the Cirillo and Taleb (2020) “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases”: the rate of growth of fatalities may be predictable but, by what seems to be a paradox (it’s not), the quantity of fatalities is NOT. pic.twitter.com/ls5PrDKsGt Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb For our French friends who requested a conversation on Ellipticality: with Raphael Douady. https://youtu.be/4kJQAXugOaY   Permalink 10:08 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Glad to see people recreating stuff in my book. https://twitter.com/DavidSalazarVir/status/1265666753503408129   Permalink 8:33 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to get it!! But I picked #AQR among all other representatives of the Flawed Mod. Finance because they keep publishing unrigorous crap about tail hedging & Ilmanen is verbalistic. (Sorry I can’t stand fools. #Rigor in reasoning). https://twitter.com/ElCordobez1/status/1265595687313510401?s=20   Permalink 5:07 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Do polls work, that is, correctly represent preferences? Permalink 4:48 AM – 27 May 2020

@nntaleb Ellipticality (Technical) (My Probability Mooc) https://youtu.be/9oIpb4zYxt4   via @YouTube Permalink 12:52 PM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM on ELLIPTICALITY and how it cancels diversification https://youtu.be/9oIpb4zYxt4   Permalink 11:45 AM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb The points presented by @CliffordAsness are far from technical. (BTW I am not blocking him so he can rebut as he wishes). https://twitter.com/Balkanmasturb8r/status/1265289087482814465?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jZyb4wfSgO”>  pic.twitter.com/jZyb4wfSgO Permalink 10:25 AM – 26 May 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic | #Tailhedge-deniers go | inspiration sparked by @nntaleb & @moritzheiden Help me pay my bills. Please! https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Zd7tHKYYxp”>  pic.twitter.com/Zd7tHKYYxp Permalink 7:36 AM – 26 May 2020

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM ON RISK PARITY Friends, in the wake of the road-rage by the lunatic of #AQR, @CliffordAsness, I will post short tutorial videos explaining the BS in theories of diversification. I will answer Qs here. Thread is v. technical. Nonscientific commentators will be blocked pic.twitter.com/H9EOlNeZEh Permalink 7:04 AM – 26 May 2020

@reiyashi one man on his journey pic.twitter.com/b1NWXtY4wW Permalink 5:54 AM – 26 May 2020

@mikeandallie 3/3 Following that not-so-great project I took a stab at explaining some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas on the sensitivity of virus models to inputs that, happily, are finally starting to get more attention today. Here’s that twitter thread: https://twitter.com/i/status/1264316544915472387   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 May 2020

@yaneerbaryam Four month anniversary still reads true @nntaleb @normonics #coronavirus https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1221500132337819650   Permalink 4:39 AM – 26 May 2020

@GrahamAMcLeod V happy to see this new Nature Physics paper by Nassim Taleb – one of the few ppl to break consensus and warn of Coronavirus dangers as early as Jan 2020 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x   https://twitter.com/GadSaad/status/1264958279467368448   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rkxvr8SihO”>  pic.twitter.com/rkxvr8SihO Permalink 4:35 PM – 25 May 2020

@Covid19Digest “What @nntaleb understood, and what public health officials in places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam understood, was that there was an asymmetry between overreacting and under-reacting.” https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1257004898610302977   Permalink 3:20 PM – 25 May 2020

@TalebWisdom “Never hire an academic unless his function is to partake of the rituals of writing papers or taking exams.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 May 2020

@HarrisonSearles @yaneerbaryam and @nntaleb imagined that possibility in January. https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1264911846466826241   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb https://youtu.be/ggrW6qi0qZQ   Permalink 11:59 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb I sorely discovered from the Monsanto days that @reason was a shill house totally unreliable. It is in fact damaging to the liberty & localist movements. You must block everyone who writes there. https://twitter.com/octonion/status/1264976757201031170   Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb It is not about a long life Non ut diu vivamus curandum est sed ut satis (Seneca) https://twitter.com/LIHF_Living/status/1264972992561524738   Permalink 11:05 AM – 25 May 2020

@octonion Even if every single person in New York City had already been infected, 0.3% of New York City would be about 24000, and New York City had already passed that in excess deaths by the end of April. In other words, this is complete nonsense. https://twitter.com/Ubercapper/status/1264941329026514945   Permalink 10:48 AM – 25 May 2020

@EricTopol The video of @DrCirillo and @nntaleb on this fat-tails paper, the tails-wags-the-dog and its important implications https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr0YIcp-zi0&feature=youtu.be   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EsC2HbsH7y”>  pic.twitter.com/EsC2HbsH7y Permalink 8:22 AM – 25 May 2020

@EricTopol The fat-tail phenomenon of pandemics, dating back to 429 BC and including #COVID19, is vital to recognize but tail-risk is largely ignored in current epidemiological models @DrCirillo @nntaleb @NaturePhysics ★ very perceptive work https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x   @tudelft ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KRiswLWjJ1″>  pic.twitter.com/KRiswLWjJ1 Permalink 8:14 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb 11 AM Brooklyn std time (5 PM Palermo, 6 PM Aleppo) we discuss our paper on pandemics in Nature Physics. We +comment on verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords w/o understanding probability s.a. BS vendor @PTetlock+show error w/Ioannidis +propose basic probability training. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1264595200472682498   Permalink 6:52 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb So @clairlemon barges & takes sides in into a conflict she knows nothing about, in a professional subject she knows nothing about, with a lunatic (@cliffordasness) the content of whose rants she understands nothing, simply because: YOURS TRULY is a party in the conflict. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1264707437807824896   Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 May 2020

@nntaleb Let me rephrase Would an online tuition of 60% of physical for executive education be Permalink 6:18 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Let me rephrase Would an online tuition of 60% of physical for executive education be Permalink 6:18 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Lung ventilators in Antifragile (2012). I later discussed in a scientific paper. Doctors don’t get convexity. https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMuray/status/1264659956374147073   Permalink 2:41 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb I cannot live in societies that spend trillions on nuclear weapons yet are incapable of delivering COVID testing to their populations. The world’s pseudosophistication & misallocation of resources have been increasing… pic.twitter.com/9hBjwnRbqg Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb What are online fees for executive programs as % of the physical? Permalink 11:57 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb The date: most likely August Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, we will be doing #RWRI 14 online. To accommodate people overseas it will be 2 weeks (10 days) 8-12 am EST (2-6 PM in Agrigento, Sicily). We still need to work out details and learn to use Zoom. Meanwhile women scholarships are open. Please check http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 May 2020

@nntaleb One thing worse than being blamed for the wrong reason: being praised for the wrong reason. Permalink 11:25 AM – 24 May 2020

@Jasak98 “Al Zaytouni” restaurant in North-Lebanon Using Syriac and Garshouni in their menu. pic.twitter.com/kRU5cA4ueT Permalink 11:01 AM – 24 May 2020

@DrCirillo An informal conversation with @nntaleb. Tomorrow, Monday 25, at 5pm (CET), in sync with the paper becoming openly available. https://youtu.be/sr0YIcp-zi0   Permalink 9:32 AM – 24 May 2020

@Decafquest Oh look, @paugasol is readinh @nntaleb’s SITG https://twitter.com/paugasol/status/1264382050611523584   Permalink 5:27 AM – 24 May 2020

@HarryDCrane Part of understanding statistics is understanding when a single data point indicates more than just an anecdote, and also when a full analysis of a large dataset is nothing more than an anecdote. https://twitter.com/vakeraj/status/1264271405878779904   Permalink 7:38 PM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb 3eid Mbarak to those who celebrate! Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Excellent solution https://twitter.com/hvairinhos/status/1264234518397046785?s=20   Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Adding to book: Foundation of Risk Parity is, officially: 1) finite and KNOWN variance 2) ellipticality. Problem: variance is not projectable since kurtosis is patently infinite. No ellipticallity since infinite higher order moments. Also problem of preasymptotic behavior. pic.twitter.com/OyDY4YPh6B Permalink 7:44 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Forgot to reference the lunatic of #AQR, @CliffordAsness Permalink 7:02 AM – 23 May 2020

@HarryDCrane Soon to be accompanied by the inaugural “No BS Probability Conference” 1-day event (online) hosted by @researchersone and possibly other sponsors. Permalink 6:59 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Friends, 1st printing is pre-sold out so I can correct mistakes in MS for a quick 2nd printing that shd hit 10 d later. Comments welcome! https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   The discussion w/the lunatic of #AQR is my point that their entire analytic apparatus is incompatible with fat tails. Permalink 6:52 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb No, I am NOT a polymath. I abhore the notion of polymaths. I have a single field: PROBABILITY/RISK/UNCERTAINTY and it happens to be at the core of many fields. Philology & literature are hobbies, not professional contributions. https://twitter.com/DiegoMoldesGonz/status/1264172162283376641   Permalink 5:59 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb No, I did not block Marcos López de Prado @lopezdeprado because of his comments. I had blocked him weeks ago when I saw these claims in his bio. pic.twitter.com/5qLIngpTRx Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb Same for exponent. Seems impossible to solve the composition analytically. pic.twitter.com/AAGSF4sUXk Permalink 5:11 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb CHEATING: By simulation the base is ½ and converges quickly. We cannot use traditional methods because the “generator” function f has a second argument in it, here p. pic.twitter.com/ZpT4qTVRoL Permalink 4:58 AM – 23 May 2020

@nntaleb If you describe an early precautionary reaction as conscious panic, it confuses your detractors… https://twitter.com/HCSArmstrong/status/1263986779671183360   Permalink 5:21 PM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb This may take 5 min or part of the weekend. (please no comments by non-math amateurs). pic.twitter.com/gtWGD8oOOw Permalink 11:59 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Thread. When someone says “you’re panicking” say “Yes, what’s wrong with such a risk management approach?” When someone says “you’re an asshole”, answer “yes, what’s wrong being asshole with the arrogant”, etc. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1263881991814098946   Permalink 10:42 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 5/n Mandelbrot has a monstrous scientific erudition & a yuuge curiosity. He knew arcane math stuff only autodidacts know. But he respected erudition much more than scientific rank, based on his fascinations with polyglot characters like Jean de Menasce. https://twitter.com/ArieHaziza/status/1263874558802698241?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vLSvtwErMa”>  pic.twitter.com/vLSvtwErMa Permalink 10:02 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Did Pinker do another “empirical” analysis to figure out if those who believe in the afterlife have a statitically significant shorter life expectancy? No. You never never miss with Pinker. Wherever he ventures, he manages to produce BS. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1263463995870269440   Permalink 9:42 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ I am not used to psychiatricize people; first time I do it as Asness (henceforth “The Lunatic of AQR”) stupidly went into such claims. Permalink 9:34 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb NARCISSISTIC RAGE: HOW ASNESS BLEW A FUSE One shd resist making psychiatric claims, excepty for situations where 100% self evident. Busted #AQR: 1) Fails to deliver claims, 2) Uses pseudoscientific analytics not for fat tails. =>Asness goes nuts. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/narcissistic-rage   https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263823559329288192   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/JFCILVjOre”>  pic.twitter.com/JFCILVjOre Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 4/n The great Mandelbrot was 100% uncompromising. But he suffered because he cared abt honors & academic status; he depended on a certain establishment. So I learned from him to do opposite 1) be 100% independent, 2) Do theorems & proofs (which, being intuitive, he hated). Permalink 5:50 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 3/n Mandelbrot’s contempt for Fama prompted to ignore story in book but it is revived by the connection to the *AQR lunatic* the disgusting @CliffordAsness Fat tails invalidate the tools of finance and Fama is indeed by his own admission unscientific. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1544508050/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i21   Permalink 5:32 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/n Fama’s reasons was that Fat Tails were “incompatible with the tools in social science”. It’s like using the map of Tokyo in Mexico because “here is a map”. I actually wrote to Fama & got same HORRENDOUS answer. Mandelbrot saw Fama never understood the CONSEQUENCES of tails. pic.twitter.com/7R5ojL3X4Y Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb 1/n The great Mandelbrot despised Fama whom he found both clueless & dishonorable. Fama was a French major & M supervised his thesis; they applied the Levy-Stable Distribution for markets (mistake since it’s a limit not met preasymtotically). Then Fama turned on M to use MPT. Permalink 5:20 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Grazie amici! L’autore piu suggerito qui e Calvino; e il piu facile da leggere? Leggere la letteratura in una lingua straniera e molto difficile; qual e il libro piu semplice di Calvino? Permalink 4:35 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb We need some help from philologists (including maestros @Safaitic & @PhDniX) about the strange verb دمغ for “killing by damaging one’s head”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263664298900979712   Permalink 4:19 AM – 22 May 2020

@nntaleb Here we go, @sapinker will never disappoint. You bust his BS in one field, he appears in another. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1263463995870269440   Permalink 8:14 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Google finally discovering that Lebanese is not Arabic. pic.twitter.com/o9JkbtrTgq Permalink 2:27 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb نحنا منئول بلكورة ” الغايب عزرو معوا” https://twitter.com/HsenAndil/status/1263557433470967808   Permalink 2:17 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 13) The book STAT CONS OF FAT TAILS is freely available in PDF here (easier to read than ArXiv). https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 2:11 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Com’e Eco in italiano? Facile? Permalink 1:39 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb Amici italiani, Sto cercando un romanzo facile da leggere in italiano. Sono stato sorpreso di scoprire che la Moravia è molto più ricca e difficile da leggere rispetto, per esempio, a Machiavelli. Qual è il più semplice? Che ne dite di? Barico? Di Lampedusa? Schiaschia? Altri? Permalink 1:29 PM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb (Note: I am not connected to @TalebWisdom). Robb’s book, it is safe to say, is still on my mind 13 years later! https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1263177133461028864   Permalink 10:10 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 12) Taking stock: AQR pans general tail hedging as a loser’s game. Universa’s risk mitigated portfolio life to date (and BEFORE 2020) outperforms SPX—by slashing risk. AQR portfolios, …, not so much. MPT is smoke and mirrors, topic of my new book. https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/1544508050   Permalink 7:21 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 11) Next time, @CliffordAsness someone tries to have lunch with you to discuss risk parity & things, do not blow him away unceremoniously claiming you don’t eat his food. It would have avoided you the embarrassment of these genuine but highly unscientific outbursts. Permalink 7:19 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb The responses of Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness too this thread have been vastly… nontechnical. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263102555565023233?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dRcROHacVM”>  pic.twitter.com/dRcROHacVM Permalink 5:01 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 10) The responses by @CliffordAsness to this thread have been vastly …nontechnical. pic.twitter.com/1gWESuSBJQ Permalink 4:55 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb #Lindy! That’s the way to do science without the rentseekingacademiconasalary gaming the system. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1263189643492757506   Permalink 4:16 AM – 21 May 2020

@enzolamberti Buongiorno @hugowiz , did you have your @NonMeek #brikka coffee yet? pic.twitter.com/dwdFekaZMP Permalink 12:32 AM – 21 May 2020

@nntaleb 9) For the general public watching the road rage of Mr Asness who misreplied to my last post: The claims by AQR is: tail risk is not needed by funds because there are ways to do it better. As we are finding out: the performance of AQR doesn’t show it. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263283331862495232?s=20   Permalink 6:56 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb The entire point is by that by cricitizing a tail risk mitigation via OTM options one would expect AQR’s risk mitigation to be better. It’s not and that’s the story. (I also insist that there is was never a PERSONAL mention of Cliff Aness, just AQR.) https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263266366343327748?s=20   Permalink 6:23 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 7/n Perhaps Mr Asness can show us empiricists, with the benefit of hindsight, which fund he wants us to pick to get the relative performance. PS- I have no interest in Asness, not even AQR, but they can’t get away w/nonsensical claims abt tail risk. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263266354909626369?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/txJQrm9aQU”>  pic.twitter.com/txJQrm9aQU Permalink 6:05 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 6/n Perhaps Mr Asness should show us which of his funds we should look at, and since his answer has a psychiatry dimension, we turn to some psychiatry. https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1263252874794086400?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SJ2USJ1pcL”>  pic.twitter.com/SJ2USJ1pcL Permalink 5:27 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 5/n #AQR Make AQR aware that OTM options have >> fatter tails than underlying (+ one-tailed), hence hidden moment are substantial. Similar to floods. “Empirical” simulations are not predictive in the naive intrapolative way. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1263222080323162113?s=20   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR What You See and Don’t See: Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution. The said “empirical” distribution hides stuff! Where is the hidden moment for n observations? Intuition of the results of paper below https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.05894.pdf   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64WDwef5jKI   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 4/n #AQR Ilmanen the bullshitter (& the AQR team) among other things don’t seem to get that tail payoff != probability x payoff under fat tails. You need to include payoffs not part of this, and g(x) is convex (option payoffs by convexity are MUCH MORE FAT TAILED than underlying) pic.twitter.com/7skOHLO6sJ Permalink 1:45 PM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 3/n Antti Ilmanen claims tails must be expensive from lottery tickets (but excludes 1987 crash); doesn’t get basics: Stat 102 does’t cover when assumptions are violated (Gauss-Markov, etc.) Fails to get Bayes’ rule. Note: while RISK PARITY is ~unique, tail hedges vary hugely. pic.twitter.com/8HrZ4QkOnj Permalink 1:27 PM – 20 May 2020

@john_f_hamer “Trust those who trust you and distrust those who are suspicious of others.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2nd edition) @nntaleb Permalink 12:40 PM – 20 May 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Yes! Although I had heard it before, I only got the consequences of it when I read your book and played around with simulations. It bogles my mind how much misunderstanding comes from not replicating everything in statistics. Thank you for saying it aloud! Permalink 9:37 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/n (#AQR) Meanwhile Universa hedged portf outperformed SP while AQR crap and RISK PARITY junk underperformed. I cannot believe that AQR will issue claims from hypotheticals. Further they are mired in the probability distributions & metrics that have been amply debunked. Permalink 6:46 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb 1/n AQR issued 2 flawed reports saying tail risk hedging doesn’t work (in theory), options are “expensive” Yet they did not reveal that 1) Their OWN risk premia strategies lost money. 2) Their other public crap underperforms the MKT. Insult to clients & the REAL WORLD. Permalink 6:41 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Explaining with minimal complexity the non-ellipticality of probability distributions when the correlation is unstable. Explains the failures of RISK PARITY, some BS invention that sells to gullible clients innocent of probability. pic.twitter.com/Iv3hxQJZB4 Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb FRAGILITY, OVEROPTIMIZATION & COVID No, it’s not the lockdown that’s breaking NYC! Restaurants & hotels are so stretched (mostly rent) that they go bust after a 8-18% drop in rev/occupancy. Same w/theaters,museums. Real estate must adjust (distancing) #Convexity #Nonlinear Permalink 5:42 AM – 20 May 2020

@nntaleb This is central. https://twitter.com/GrantSSC/status/1262833575251939328   Permalink 12:53 PM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 3b/ Weightlifting from @CoachRippetoe & @GrantSSC, exercise/health from @GuruAnaerobic Levantine language from @HsenAndil, @Marcellenassif, @turlevnon & others And here and there from friends on Twitter Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 3a/ You can learn yuuuuugely from Twitter while playing. I learned Inequalities frm Maestro Bogomolny (RIP) & the FB Romanians Semitic philology frm @Safaitic & @PhDniX Latin frm @ArmandDAngour Computational math frm @WolframResearch History frm @holland_tom @DrMichaelBonner Permalink 11:52 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb Voila, plus or minus a calculation error. pic.twitter.com/R9NlSF9igk Permalink 11:19 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 2/ #RWRI proved that experienced people are uniquely capable of teaching a real world subject: doctor trains doctor, nurse trains nurse (& doctor), risk takers train young risk takers (not some nerd), accountant train budding accountants, thief trains thief, prostitute trains… Permalink 10:42 AM – 19 May 2020

@Safaitic #coronaepigraphy day 63: Something for those interested in Greek linguistics: misspellings shed light on contemporary pronunciation. This Greek text accompanies a Safaitic inscription of a man named Maṭr of the lineage of ṣabāḥ (صباح). But look how the tribal name is spelled. pic.twitter.com/CuGYUzX04f Permalink 5:12 AM – 19 May 2020

@nntaleb 2) To visualize the intricacy, see my comments #RWRI on negative prices via arbitrage/squeezes. @johncarlosbaez Permalink 10:02 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb We use negative probabilities in quant finance since probability is just a KERNEL inside an integral, rarely a “real thing” outside of binary payoffs. So long as *no arbitrage* is satisfied. Only thing that matters is (by scaling) ∫densities=1. Similar to negative prices in oil. https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1262053722336620545   Permalink 10:00 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb 1) The taste of (cold) revenge is by far the most underrated human experience. Not for cowards. Not be good for society except when revenge does not lead to more revenge. 2) Written ~170 y ago. I’ve never read more limpid more recent page turner. #Lindy = #ergodic seller! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1258853603554574336   Permalink 8:58 AM – 17 May 2020

@nntaleb By “find love” I meant “find love (in different categories of varying expected duration)”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1261317028993957888   Permalink 8:22 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb I like the peer-review system. It is necessary, but never sufficient. Also depends what you call “peers”. Peer-review of decision science papers in psychology is worthless. Permalink 8:12 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb THE DEATH OF ACADEMIA: peer-review creates citation rings of high ignorance. The epidemiological models developed by @stephen_wolfram, his son, & @dzviovich in 1 or 2 afternoons were light years ahead of models by academia w/zillions of “peer reviewed” crap. As to finance… pic.twitter.com/aExX51TEe0 Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 May 2020

@nntaleb The Monsanto days are back: $$ buy science! https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/stanford-coronavirus-neeleman-ioannidis-whistleblower   Permalink 5:00 PM – 15 May 2020

@dvassallo I’m from Malta (left 10yrs ago), and when people ask me how’s work culture in the US, this is what’s different. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1005515603019554818   Permalink 9:40 AM – 15 May 2020

@nntaleb The main function of a conference is to get a job, find love, corner potential customers during parties, or get a subsidized (or tax efficient) vacation. Content is merely a side effect. Online conferences need something else. Permalink 8:26 AM – 15 May 2020

@HietanenPaavo 2 I’d assume this is partially of what Prof @nntaleb means when he says “Govts don’t shut down economy, people do” Fins export business is worth 92 billion euros (article above) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1254072995628408832   Permalink 1:05 AM – 15 May 2020

@nntaleb This is how Umberto Eco’s library looked. pic.twitter.com/NmriwamUjg Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 May 2020

@nntaleb Glad @RaminNasibov corrected. Umberto Eco’s library was 1) light, 2) modern w/white shelves (based on Ikea’s Billy), 3) comfortable and inviting. You felt like wanting to spend every Sunday afternoon there. This is dark, musty, uncomfortable, and … has too many books. https://twitter.com/RaminNasibov/status/1260951032886149121   Permalink 11:33 AM – 14 May 2020

@birdxi1988 The simulation shows that even with R0<1, an epidemic may still be thriving somewhere in the country. I think ⁦@nntaleb⁩ mentioned this in January,as an average,R0 is biased downward because the outbreaks have fat tail due to “super-spreader“ events. https://www.santafe.edu/news-center/news/transmission-t-024-cristopher-moore-on-the-heavy-tail-of-outbreaks   Permalink 10:01 AM – 14 May 2020

Fat Tony, BS Vendors, Class Warfare, Cronyism, Dakhilak, Peter Frankopan, GMOs | Twitter

@nntaleb Fat Tony, how can I be less unsuccesful?
-have no prsonl assstnt/sectry
-But then I can’t schedule meetings, answer mail
-That’s the point. Permalink 6:51 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb No worries: the courage & military prowess of the prediabetic pple of SaudiBarbaria limits to terrorism: just unarmed civilians as in Sept11 Permalink 5:49 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb My London talk discussing the social science statistical “toolkit” pic.twitter.com/TOgxeu8HfD Permalink 5:44 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Is this a death threat? @time24art Permalink 5:24 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The “best brains” among BSVendors are still BSVendors. https://twitter.com/BNCommodities/status/698998958186766341   Permalink 4:54 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Changed the title once again:
Skin In the Game: The Thrills and Logic of Risk Taking
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SITG.html   Permalink 4:51 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@GreekAnalyst Next time you hear someone talk about “class warfare”, show them this. pic.twitter.com/NF8a9httMA Permalink 12:04 PM – 14 Feb 2016

@edsanin “An economist is a mixture of 1) a businessman w/o common sense, 2) a physicist w/o brain & 3) a speculator without balls”- @nntaleb Genius Permalink 8:23 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb I love statistical rigor more than I hate Monsanto.

Investigate before spreading conspiracies. @AdrienClavel Permalink 7:56 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Central delusion: classic liberals who tolerate large corporations but not big government; nonclassicliberals who make the opposite mistake. Permalink 7:53 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Reminds me of an argument by the imbecile Pat Buchanan that “smoking bans are costing jobs” @DavidBCollum Permalink 7:47 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Hillary Clinton Monsanto-Malmaison represents shoddy cronyism: How to game the political system to get rich. http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-2016-election/   Permalink 6:14 AM – 14 Feb 2016

@nntaleb I did it vertically for space. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:38 PM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Speculative Aramaic Philology: Root of Lev. & Ar. 3olm علم (knowledge) is Aramaic “strength”, => 3alma young woman. pic.twitter.com/WjoGAU3j6p Permalink 11:52 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Speculative philology of the day: Dakhilak (“I implore you”) in Levantine comes from Western Aramaic (Takhl, takhlak) Permalink 10:12 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Michael Spagat makes egregious errors of significance in a journal called “Significance”, (in comments on Pinker) pic.twitter.com/VvXsdL5rt6 Permalink 9:50 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS charlatans use to sell their products, with “appeal” to “harming the poor”. Charlatan! https://twitter.com/wrmead/status/698552289053650944   Permalink 9:27 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb U.S. readers, have you pre-ordered 2 copies of @peterfrankopan’s book, out Tuesday? You need 2 in case you lose one.
http://www.amazon.com/Silk-Roads-New-History-World/dp/1101946326/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1455381152&sr=8-1&keywords=frankopan   Permalink 8:34 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb A reminder that the last main external battle won by people from what is now Saudi Arabia is Yarmuk in 636 AD. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/698432890091282432   Permalink 6:30 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Speculative philology du jour:”sahra” in Levantine (night conv)<=Aramaic “sahr” from “moon”:Cannanite סַ֫הַר=”round” pic.twitter.com/MOLVomVICO Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Feb 2016

@nntaleb As much as I despise Monsanto, it is not a good idea to start accusing immediately w/o deeper statistical scrutiny. https://twitter.com/food_democracy/status/698234383082328068   Permalink 12:06 PM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb I mean “deemed” rather than “defined”. Permalink 9:10 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Slides for lecture on Logic of Risk Taking
Best definition of rationality: what Cass Sunstein defines as irrational pic.twitter.com/9aOrKpqYGa Permalink 9:08 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb You can soon expect some message that it is “unscientific” to worry about the link involving a Monsanto product.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416   Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb All theories are to be deemed conspiracy theories … until Monsanto fights it with shills on social media. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416   Permalink 7:03 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Something to investigate https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/698149294759612416   Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The imbecile should FIRST provide or conduct a proper risk analysis, THEN complain. #BSVending https://twitter.com/dbkell/status/698128664618209280   Permalink 5:37 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle page has more details
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 4:51 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb A reminder that the “science” behind GMOs is largely P.R., no proper risk studies ever done. pic.twitter.com/FFmEobBET9 Permalink 4:25 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Precisely the problem that debt is building and at low rates. If govts need to refinance…. Fragile! @jweinryt @econbuttonwood Permalink 4:22 AM – 12 Feb 2016

@econbuttonwood Deleveraging? What deleveraging? Chart from Manoj Pradhan at Morgan Stanley pic.twitter.com/rws8vQboIU Permalink 1:46 AM – 12 Feb 2016

BS Vendors, Dostoyevsky, Auguste Comte, Nobel Foundation, Bill Gates, GMOs, Penrose – The Road To Reality,

Typical initial resistance on the part of Israel/Iran in realizing they will end up fighting on the same side. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/692701879801888768
5:46 AM – 28 Jan 2016

7) Saw in a flash why to get “honest” function for fattailed CDF you needed alpha exponent in N but not Fourier tr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_distribution
2:09 AM – 28 Jan 2016

My explanation of the flaw of “averaging” under nonlinear responses and why much of psychology doesn’t generalize.
1:31 AM – 28 Jan 2016

2/2 The problem is deeper than local averaging: The response by Dawkins clique to Nowak’s math was journalistic. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/richard-dawkins-labelled-journalist-by-eo-wilson
1:28 AM – 28 Jan 2016

The “Selfish Gene” has been debunked by Wilson/Nowak, & Bar Yam. Links to “averaging” in complex syst #Antifragile https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/692552661598601216
1:06 AM – 28 Jan 2016

I meant #skininthegame only learn from those who do what they teach. Ignore others @jsqfunk
4:53 PM – 27 Jan 2016

6b)Penrose made me finally get why I fail to “invent” a powerlaw in R without “patches”.Shd focus on Complex:Fourier
4:47 PM – 27 Jan 2016

6a) His discussion of Euler proper “smooth” function in Re domain vs analyticity in complex=>why no real function on R for fattailed distr
4:43 PM – 27 Jan 2016

To learn, learn from those who do it.
3:20 PM – 27 Jan 2016

5) He ties together stuff that we never put together. Sometimes just a hint leads to a flash. What is natural/rational number before quarks?
11:47 AM – 27 Jan 2016

4) Just reread first 7 chapters on plane to India.
+discovery of math techniques (complex analysis, Log) led to uncovering of the physical
11:45 AM – 27 Jan 2016

best quote re Davos @nntaleb “The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping.”Going to needlepoint it. https://twitter.com/TheMediaTweets/status/691990013601566721
9:48 AM – 27 Jan 2016

.@kennethminoo The idea is the inverse problem. Imagine yourself having to produce the math that explains reality, no less no more.
4:24 PM – 26 Jan 2016

The English approach math a la Newton: less formalisn more coherence @OussamaENNAFII
4:06 PM – 26 Jan 2016

3) TRTR shows the exact interplay between math and physical reality. It works like magic. Think of complex analysis=>quantum` probability!!!
3:33 PM – 26 Jan 2016

2) Before TRTR viewed the world into: Von Neumann vs Feynman. For VN, a physical was a term in equation. For RF, math could be masturbation.
3:31 PM – 26 Jan 2016

1) Penrose’s TRTR convinced me that it takes 10 years to properly real a real book.
3:27 PM – 26 Jan 2016

Friends, Let’s start a twitter symposium on Penrose’s monumental TRTR (after 10y of reading it). #lindyeffect
3:08 PM – 26 Jan 2016

Someone needs to (gently & patiently) explain to Bill Gates that in real life you can’t reboot to solve a crash. https://twitter.com/GMOInside/status/691563805940256768
3:01 PM – 26 Jan 2016

Syllabus of my course at NYU-Tandon @nyupoly: 7 Introductory lectures on Extreme Risk Analytics. pic.twitter.com/NBpX8JRfEu
6:49 AM – 26 Jan 2016

It is a myth that markets are there for the discovery of “the” price.(Facebook)  Markets are there so we can keep changing opinion about the price.
In addition, for those who believe in the “wisdom of crowds”, looks like the idea is debunked by the minority rule.


Every century brings the fool (Facebook) who declares that “violence is steadily declining” and that we live in “unparalleled” period of peace (40 years without conflict). And, needless to say, attributes it to some type of progress. This was from H.T. Buckle circa 1857. I was shocked to find Pinker’s words… verbatim. It was not just Pinker’s reasoning, but his words.

The great F. Dostoyevsky debunked it in “Notes from an underground” (enclosed).

A common theme of “positivist-rationalists-scientistic” (that is, promoters of scientism) to believe in “end of”, new man, new society, new something, etc. Just as the “new atheists” believe that if we remove religion and replaced with something they mislabel as “science”, things wouldn’t blow up the planet. Now, looking for some quotes from Auguste Comte who, thanks to his magisterial multi-volume project, “Cours de Philosophy Positive” gave respectability to this turkey problem.
1) Dostoyevsky, as an author, had skin in the game. He faced his own execution: he was condemned to death penalty, faced the execution squad, and was reprieved last minute. See in The Idiot the discussion of how a man faces what he think is his last hours of life, promising himself to enjoy every minute of like in the same manner if case he miraculously survives… and forgetting it upon the miraculous survival. Much more on him, later.

2) The Nobel Foundation gave me a fellowhip to go study the statistical properties of violence in Oslo. So I will get deeper into this turkey problem and its sucker narrative.

3) Thanking Daniel Obloja.

When people get rich (Facebook), they lose control of their preferences, substituting constructed preferences to their own, triggering their own misery. And these are the preferences of those who want to sell them something (a skin-in-the-game problem as their choices are dictated by others who have something to gain, and no side effects, from the sale).

I’ve mentioned here the following anecdote. I once had dinner in a Michelin-starred restaurant with a fellow who insisted on eating there instead of my selection of a casual Greek place. People in the restaurant were of the very constipated style, that kind of atmosphere. Dinner consisted in a succession of complicated small things. It felt like work. I left the place starving. Now if I had a choice I would have had some time-tested recipe (say a pizza with fresh ingredients, or a juicy hamburger) in a lively place –for a tenth of the price. But because the fellow could afford the expensive restaurant, we ended up the victims of some complicated experiments by a chef judged by some Michelin bureaucrat (one that would fail the Lindy effect, instead of eating some minute local variation around a progress through Sicilian grandmothers).

(Footnote: Hamburgers are tastier than filet mignon, because of the higher fat content, but people have been convinced that the latter is better because it is more expensive to produce).

The same with real estate. Most people, I am convinced, are happier in close quarters, in a real barrio-style neighborhood, where they can feel human warmth, but when they have big bucks they end up pressured to move into a humongous impersonal and silent mansions, far away from the neighbors. Not counting the fact that their house will be professionally managed like a corporation.

I am saying this because, with the passage of time, I am more and more convinced that very few people understand their own choices, and end up being manipulated by those who want to sell them something. Looking at Saudi Arabia which should progressively revert to the pre-oil level of poverty, I wonder if taking away some things from them will make them better off.

A part man-part animal (Facebook) is vastly more horrifying than a full wild animal. Extremely eerie are monsters who look like humans with small differences.

The uncanny resides in the resemblance, not the difference.

So I finally figured out why I am gripped with so much revulsion at BS vendors dressed in the garb of high priest of scientists, intellectuals, or logicians, (say Pinker or Shermer or Harris or some scientist under Monsanto’s control), to the point of total maddening anger, and why I do not experience any disgust when I see a fortune teller, a market commentator, or some new age meditation guru such as Deepak Chopra.

FRIDAY QUIZ.(Facebook)
“People of high intelligence are ethical. We find fewer intelligent people among criminals.”
Spot the nonsense in the sentence.

When I was a quant-trader (Facebook), my trading colleagues talked about books, ideas, and quants talked about probability and mathematics. Now that I am in the “ideas” profession, my academic colleagues discuss office space, and my writing colleagues talk about book agents, speakers bureaus and copyrights. Professional mathematicians talk about grants and amateur ones about Godel.