Tag Archives: Harris

Murray, Psychology, Quillette, Jesuits, Monsanto, Peterson, Harris, Silver, IQ Eugenics, Wahabis, Tulsi, Lehmann | Twitter

@nntaleb Nordic supremacy or North Atlantic supremacy (i.e. Northen Europe). Not Western. They don’t have monopoly of the “West”. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1160600695072010241   Permalink 3:21 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Note: I do not disrespect psychologists because I don’t know their works. It is precisely BECAUSE I read their crap. Between 2002 and 2005½ I read >200 psychology books and took notes. (Here 3 books by Pinker @sapinker who claims I didn’t read his junk) pic.twitter.com/EH1VNTZgU4 Permalink 3:18 PM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem isn’t that the Quillette pple are very, very incompetent. The problem is that the fans and followers are also very, very stupid. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1160558238309462016   Permalink 7:35 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many claims are so viciously false… Babylonians, Chinese, and Indians had explicit logical systems. pic.twitter.com/68WMKDjOzz Permalink 5:52 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb عيد مبارك Permalink 5:40 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I will definitely pay @joelwatsonfish to nitpick my manuscripts for mistakes (fellow has been trying to take revenge for Quillette). Payoff is yuuge if 1 in 10 of his mistakes turns out to actually be mistake. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   https://twitter.com/joelwatsonfish/status/1159941673591459841   Permalink 5:25 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Eid Mubarak to all. Permalink 5:22 AM – 11 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire. Constantinople continued the Roman empire. Same usurpation with the EU. https://twitter.com/byzbastard/status/1160273117337587713?s=21   Permalink 2:12 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Whether the list was drawn by geography or ethnity, 15-18 mistakes. Murray is as ignorant in the humanities as he is in statistics. Permalink 2:04 PM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My father once told me: “Never antagonize Jesuits; their erudition is so wide and so deep they know things you’ll never suspect they know.” Permalink 11:42 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb More mistakes (total 18): Zeno of Elea was from Campania, S. of Naples. I am embarrassed I did not detect it at first reading. Permalink 11:30 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Further, a classical Greek would be furious to become part of this “West” to give a pedigree to Mountebank Murray’s ancestors & justify their “genetics” theories. Greeks were Meds, first and last and closer to Persia/Mesopotamia where the action was. Permalink 11:20 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Averroes, like Maimonides was born in Cordoba. Try to call him “Spanish”, Westerner! Some elementary mistakes anyone with intellect would detect: Philo Judaeus ‘The Jew” would be… Greek? Permalink 11:17 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I debated Murrat and noted that for a “historian” he was woefully lacking in erudition. His definition of the “West” = whatever became successful. He didn’t read r Greek & misunderstood Herodotus. Was told to take it easy on him bec. “libertarian” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1079549079099768832?s=20   Permalink 11:00 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mountebank race monger Charles Murray @charlesmurray has a list of “Human Accomplishments” by “Westerners” He has 15 mistakes on a single page! Tertullian was Berber Saadia was Bagdadi/Egyptian AlKindi was Arabian Poseidonius was Syrian Mani was Persian Porphyrius Phoenician pic.twitter.com/rSisK6SeQ4 Permalink 10:49 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I prefer the company of people who make me smile to those who make me laugh. Permalink 9:12 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK. Conspiracy perhaps. But never never underestimate incompetence. Permalink 7:14 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Never assume conspiracy when the vastly more obvious explanation should be incompetence. https://twitter.com/BrittPettibone/status/1160182637862014976   Permalink 6:37 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The “Harvard Prof” has, statistically, < 25% chance of being right (less since Harvard profs higher % chronically wrong). A practice that survived millennia across populations that themselves survived has >.999 of being safe. Nature is robust statistically. #Lindy #Antifragile https://twitter.com/neorevolt/status/1160163806451916807   Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@Monsantobuster Quillette promotes “IQ-denial=science denial”, “refusal of scientific racism=refusal of science”. Like Monsanto w/glyphosate=science Claire Lehman herself said her mission is to defend inherited genetic differences in intelligence all the while denying they are into RACISM. pic.twitter.com/IcwDrMb9n4 Permalink 3:23 AM – 10 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People loooooove the idea of BS busting. Until they find out that they are the ones being busted. Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie I’m super excited about the results in this paper – they solved a problem that drew me into finance in the late 1990s. Can’t wait to play around the results over the next few weeks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1159545366330642434   Permalink 12:36 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Posted on ArXiv the paper on tail option pricing & shopping for a journal. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.02347   6th Journal pub in 2019! PS- Peer-review of technical work is often necessary but never sufficient (can be a cover for psych BS). It is not necessary if the proof is in the doc. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8Cm0Bqf8MI”>  pic.twitter.com/8Cm0Bqf8MI Permalink 12:22 PM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. ” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto’s campaign against U.S. Right to Know: key themes and documents via @USRightToKnow https://usrtk.org/our-investigations/monsanto-usrtk-foia/   Permalink 7:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@NonMeek “Monsanto paid Google to promote search results for “Monsanto Glyphosate Carey Gillam” that criticized her work.” This is disturbing. Permalink 5:51 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Revealed: how Monsanto’s ‘intelligence center’ targeted journalists and activists [SUCH AS YOURS TRULY] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/07/monsanto-fusion-center-journalists-roundup-neil-young?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 5:28 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@Yazanator Joe Norman is doing amazing work with Nassim Taleb exposing the racist @Quillette agenda of fraudulent IQ superiority in different races and eugenics. Give the guy a follow, he also talks a lot about Complexity Science which is interesting. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1159412318775730178   Permalink 4:23 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PDF is (and will remain) freely available, @xtsop. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   https://twitter.com/xtsop/status/1159416035541487616   Permalink 4:05 AM – 8 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I myself lie about my age. For 20 years I have been using 1924 as a birthdate with journalists, people who don’t know how to mind their own business, and on social media. I shd be a centenarian before finishing the 2nd Technical Volume. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1159074479194066944   Permalink 7:38 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Connecting the INCERTO to various research traditions pic.twitter.com/NTlUSEn9pj Permalink 4:00 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What I found disgusting about Peterson is that he made yuuuge $$$ from charity from kids who made much much less than he did. Like TV evangelists of the old days. Then I blocked him. Is Claire “Lehman Brothers” still shouting that she is not into a neoNazi eugenics agenda? https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1159214975887519746   Permalink 2:59 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@GuillPaquet You might be stacking sats but we at @BullBitcoin_ are stacking @nntaleb’s #Incerto Head of investments : @francispouliot_ pic.twitter.com/eNtXSUG4c6 Permalink 2:13 PM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I apologize. It was the Swiss. Permalink 10:58 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila, the Germans like combative rigor vs BS. https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/ist-der-intelligenzquotient-ein-pseudowissenschaftlicher-schwindel-nassim-taleb-geht-auf-konfrontation-mit-steven-pinker-und-anderen-helden-des-dark-web-ld.1450747?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=Twitter   Permalink 9:42 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Don’t read; reread. https://twitter.com/FlowPandito/status/1159039169211043843   Permalink 5:54 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ketchum ran the smear campaign against yours truly (1500 letters to the university plus all manner of negative comments on social media). https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1159067331315871744   Permalink 4:49 AM – 7 Aug 2019

@pauld198 that was a big mistake – you should have followed NNT’s advice ” don’t talk science with non-scientists” Permalink 10:41 PM – 6 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In my book Dynamic Hedging I show arbitrage bounds for correlations, a tutorial. We knew correlations were not transitive but the bounds were arbitrages. pic.twitter.com/ag59oBjRVs Permalink 11:17 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Terry Tao has a nice (but very technical write-up) on the transitivity of correlation. https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2014/06/05/when-is-correlation-transitive/   Permalink 11:13 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ. Here is another statistical error by IQ-Eugenists. Show the magnitude of the error (bounds on correlation) pic.twitter.com/uocognaol7 Permalink 11:03 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb RWRI has evolved into a scalable BS busting operation. All you need to do in life and business is spot BS; the rest takes care of itself. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1158007933717794818   Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another example of why you cannot use statistical formulas without knowing probability. Majority of neuroscience papers miscalculate significance. pic.twitter.com/hJ0F9aoA5Y Permalink 7:59 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s … https://youtu.be/k_lYeNuBTE8   via @YouTube Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My IQ piece: “To do well in life one needs to think independently. And one has to be a lunatic (or a psychologist) to believe that a standardized test will reveal independent thinking.” Edgar Morin (born Nahum) is a smart fellow. https://twitter.com/edgarmorinparis/status/1157958405878951936   Permalink 6:18 AM – 4 Aug 2019

@DaveGulimlim “My idea of the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.” Permalink 11:58 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I’ve never had a problem with people who disagree with me, contradict me or find mistakes. I just cannnnnnnnnnnot take BS. Yuuuuge allergy to BS. https://twitter.com/bmiloy/status/1157769951412801536   Permalink 3:44 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac). http://bethmardutho.org/mc/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um”>  pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT: A Fall Evening Course in Syriac (Eastern Aramaic) in New York. Learn the ancient language of the Levant. I will be showing up once in a while to heckle George Kiraz (in Syriac). http://bethmardutho.org/mc/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um”>  pic.twitter.com/ptq5slV0um Permalink 12:53 PM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You know charlatan Sam Harris is lying because superstitious Eastern Mediterraneans never pass the salt (I am aggressively superstitious). Plus he offered to “bury the hatchet” and wrote this when I told him to f*** off. Permalink 8:01 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@sean_a_mcclure pic.twitter.com/TFUTbC2szX Permalink 7:35 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I need to buy mosquito repellent spray; but I am naturally a repellent to IYIs. They feel they are choking in my presence as I produced fumes only they can detect. 3 minutes and they are gone. Just consider the reaction of BSvendor Sam Harris pic.twitter.com/RBLj8Rryjy Permalink 6:46 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What annoys you more, + mosquitoes, or + IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) who discuss their elimination thinking they understand the consequences? Permalink 4:55 AM – 3 Aug 2019

@VergilDen If Taleb calls you out on Twitter, best to meet with him privately to understand his position, lest you create a record on Twitter of your ignorance. Taleb knows the position of his opponents better than his opponents. Permalink 6:34 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those in interested in my fight with Nate Silver, a sequel –except that it got more technical. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157399736980295680   Permalink 3:57 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The story with Nate Silver has another episode. Aubrey Clayton wrote to the journal in defense of Silver claiming flaws with my election paper. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.01576   And I respond in the journal. https://www.academia.edu/39998351/All_Roads_Lead_to_Quantitative_Finance_Response_to_Clayton_   Permalink 2:16 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb We stopped responding when Lehman used the Blank Slate which is a straw man (almost noboby believes in the Blank Slate). Quillette’s followers might be as stupid as the editors (they are) & cheered; but it is the defense by Lehman that confirmed the sinister racial agenda! pic.twitter.com/rtBVWCPF2l Permalink 1:40 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Geneticists (this smart fellow) seem on same side of the IQ debate. But they miss a potent functional argument x-not- f(x). IQ could be as heritable as height. But the function of IQ, f(x), performance, is 1 correlation^2 removed (& is small). Yuuge! https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1155065639624695808?s=20   Permalink 1:29 PM – 2 Aug 2019

@financequant Trees protected against wind tend to fall over prematurely. Thus, trees gain from such disorder and stress. We need a good name for this. Anti-fragile, perhaps? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1157351337639710721   Permalink 11:12 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Hell is to care about it. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1157150794099019778   Permalink 10:06 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Correction: maximum .12 of the Variance according to THEIR OWN research (the heritability metric, Falconer’s “h-square” is hard to map to standard variance). For me, because of adjustments, still <.02 Permalink 8:33 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #goldfinger #universalexports #cliffhanger pic.twitter.com/uiUO7UElzo Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Today I received the royalty statement of “Dance with Chance: Making Luck Work for You” (it is a book about uncertainty and the role of luck) and remembered when Nassim visited us at INSEAD to help us promote the book. It is ten years since then and we all look so young. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/TPQtAmzfQ1 Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@normonics What this says is that on the most charitable read, the VAST MAJORITY of the phenomena in question are left unexplained, while the narratives being spun would have you believe we have a clear picture as to what is going on with “intelligence” and “heritability of intelligence” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157245410303447040   Permalink 5:05 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The IQ Eugenics “debate” is over, using psych’s own results. Best correlation psychs report IQ-performance (milit)=.5 (explains 25% of variance w/o my own adjustments). Heritability of IQ scores, again 25% of var. So for THEM genetics explains .06 of variance in BEST. for me:<.02 https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1157206500135317504   Permalink 4:03 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Food debasement (identical to currencies) Non-artisanal corporations w/MBA managers start substituting products progressively that imperceptibly worsen the product, until blowup. You start w/lemonade, then sell what passes for lemonade. Same as bankers hiding risk for a bonus. Permalink 3:44 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@RaniaKhalek The hostility on display from the anchor in this interview shows that they hate Tulsi Gabbard no matter what she says, and they hate her for her foreign policy views that antagonize against war https://twitter.com/msnbc/status/1157016332828925952   Permalink 2:34 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I mean sunflower oil not corn oil in France pic.twitter.com/3VU5sRMqxi Permalink 2:31 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The problem is that, except for sushi bars, one cannot eat out without inspecting the kitchen. Even “olive oil” is often debased, like a currency, with seed oil. We need a “seed oil detector” very badly. Permalink 2:02 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just came back from East Med where one can escape seed oil. Avoiding France: + France: heavily marketing corn oil as “healthy” solution. Now invading French cooking replacing butter/lard. Air France’s olive oil is 66% corn oil! + Belgium: Fries no longer w/tallow, but seed oil. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1157086891633758209   Permalink 1:52 AM – 2 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “If you want people to buy a book, tell them it is overrated”. Bed of Procrustes pic.twitter.com/3DgvC088M5 Permalink 5:11 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@john_santin Just reading the book now, so let’s see if I’ve got this right . . . Fragile = Complaining about enemies Robust = Not having enemies Antifragile = Having enemies that complain about you Did I get it? What am I missing if not? Permalink 5:01 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant The MSM is troubled. CNN averages an audience of ~700K. This number is beaten by a fair number #youtube accounts (I’m talking about those with serious content.) which are produced by tiny staffs. There are over 2M people paying to support content providers on Patreon. 1/2 Permalink 4:12 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@financequant If the Democrats put up Tulsi Gabbard for president they would win the White House. I would certainly vote for her. Alas, they will put up someone like Warren or, much worse, Sanders and commit political suicide. Forcing me again to vote for some third party candidate again. Permalink 1:41 PM – 1 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We were all lied to. We were told that Saddam had WMD, was working w/ Al Qaeda & that this posed a threat to the American people. But not only have we not gone after Al Qaeda, they are stronger than they were on 9/11 #TULSI2020 #DemDebate http://tulsi.to/stand-with-tulsi   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/XrYhNbt85i”>  pic.twitter.com/XrYhNbt85i Permalink 12:18 AM – 1 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words if as @stuartjrichie claims IQ tests correlate at .8, you have a quite large uncertainty about your own IQ hence you should propagate to the performance. The overall correlation is not unconditional. Permalink 9:32 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So psychologist @stuartjrichie writes a book on IQ. In it he reveals that your own IQ tests correlate at .8— every time you take the test. He didn’t realize the need to discount accordingly correlations IQ-performance by devastating amounts. Psychology is astrology. Permalink 8:57 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@RandPaul I’m headed to the floor soon to speak on this budget “deal.” You would think in an era of renewed trillion-dollar budgets, in an era of $22 trillion debts, you would think SOMEONE in this body or in this town would make a deal to CUT spending. Watch here: https://www.c-span.org/congress/?chamber=senate   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@nntaleb One lesson to everyone about #Antifragile and not just to “racemonger Claire” @clairlemon: Never claim to be antifragile and play victim. Never. Gabish? https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156322427212722176   Permalink 8:31 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@CliffordAsness I’m in the minority I think, but out of so much great work I think this is one of ⁦@nntaleb⁩’s most subtle and important. Perfectly describes the social media veto given to a tiny minority. And subtly one of biggest threats to liberty. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 5:27 AM – 31 Jul 2019

@hedging_reality Love the fact that @nntaleb clearly thinks for himself (understatement) and could not care any f*cking less wether one agrees with or approves of his positions, thoughts, or facts. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156411907982667778   Permalink 9:57 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fucking moron it’s not a fight: it’s watching her do self-flagellation, which gets painful once it starts eliciting commiseration. Permalink 8:50 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction.” – Nassim Taleb #progress Permalink 7:58 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@AaronAllisonCPA Celebrating my birthday with a little present to myself… Incerto, deluxe edition. Beautiful. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RhFINguYme Permalink 1:36 PM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fundamental Risk Asymmetry: “No that’s too risky” & “I don’t know” are effectively the same statement. (see #Antifragile). Why? Because if I don’t know whether the plane/the food/the technology is safe or not, I don’t ride in it. pic.twitter.com/XSyMGkWE54 Permalink 9:36 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb She is so clueless and stressed out you need to take it easy on her. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1156232905192026112   Permalink 9:30 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster People who still have doubt that @clairlemon is into what Feynman calls “cargo cult”, the name for “scientism”. Prof Taleb is right you need to go to school finish your degrees and study something. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1156164287595012102   Permalink 8:59 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #fightthefed #goldfinger pic.twitter.com/9al0XGT1zP Permalink 6:03 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/ACCapitalist/status/1155943171374768128   Permalink 4:38 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Heraklius wasted energy on the Persians his victory was Pyrrhic. It weakened him. https://twitter.com/rcssmedasmith/status/1156130132953665537   Permalink 2:19 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At least two Roman emperors were either killed or captured by the Persians on that 700 year long Persian war. Who is the second? https://twitter.com/manimanavi/status/1156125697078943744   Permalink 2:04 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb At the request on Quillette followers I took an IQ test. Guess my score: Permalink 1:00 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Not counting Cyrus’ invasion of Babylon and the Levant: he defeated the Babylonians freed the Jews and brought them back home. Permalink 12:51 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The Iranian waged a 800 year war ag Romans. The Iranian frontier bankrupted Byzantium and led to the Arab invasion. Same with the Ottomans. Border stayed firm. The mistake everyone makes is to underestimate how stubborn Persia is https://twitter.com/daniellmcadams/status/1155964776440184832   Permalink 12:22 AM – 30 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is turning out to be a farce. For @clairlemon correlation and estimation theory should be outside mathematics. Off to meet @spyrosmakrid in Athens to tawk about the M5 competition. https://twitter.com/monsantobuster/status/1156061528757587968   Permalink 9:42 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Turned out these ladies are in the business of ML for sending SP500 trading orders to a hedge fund either in Italy or in Texas. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155823345193107456   Permalink 7:26 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@Monsantobuster What Claire Lehman, dropout from a Masters in Forensic Psychology calls “garbled nonsense” of Prof. Taleb is called in some circles: MATHEMATICS. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155955172448673793   Permalink 7:23 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Peterson a bon vivant? Part of the reason I blocked Peterson is because of his dullness. https://twitter.com/iozjrok/status/1155945094475739136   Permalink 7:11 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I block/mute people when I have no more use for them, nothing to learn from their arguments: Jordan Peterson, Impostor Molyneux, Mountebank Charles Murray, RacePromoter @clairlemon Not Sailer, Cochran, etc. Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Actually worse than I claimed. https://twitter.com/pzalloua/status/1155892239928832000   Permalink 10:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes the book I use for entropy https://books.google.com.lb/books/about/Elements_of_Information_Theory.html?id=VWq5GG6ycxMC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false   Permalink 9:38 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The owners of my favorite squid ink place, Kelly’s in Beirut, said they refuse to serve squid ink out of season. Other restaurants have it frozen from the winter. pic.twitter.com/wUs88OJ3Ty Permalink 9:14 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Meta-IQ test: you are given a sequence: 2, 4, 8, 16, … what is the next item? Permalink 7:50 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Taking 3 semesters off from teaching at NYU, officially to use freed time to “study Greek-Latin-Aramaic”. Will return in the Spring of 2021 with a course of informational entropy. Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@aldertrack In Greek κ will be pronounced like a G when it follows a ν, so Θα πάω στην Καλαμάτα is pronounced as Tha pao steen Galamata Permalink 7:13 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The discussion with Quillette and “Race Supremacy Claire” @clairlemon has ended with this. https://twitter.com/oceanclub/status/1155781059797278725   Permalink 6:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@UntergrundmannG Taleb has an updated post up at medium that takes care of most of this. You could take the time to weigh that in against this all over again. And if you come back here in a few days, I may have a post up about how this is a trivial misunderstanding of NNT’s case. Quantitatively. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Was getting hate tweets from Quillette clients at a rate of 1 per min, many using racial epithets to claim that @clairlemon is not into neoNazi agenda. Slowed down to about 10/min. Next, w/@normonics, preparing a formal technical paper (complex systems) abt the IQ fraud. Permalink 6:40 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correctio: predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli. Permalink 6:29 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Ol_Wall There’s a difference between something having a genetic component and proving / publishing based on it. Of course there’s a genetic component to behaviour!! That doesn’t mean we can reliably know what that is – or should publish those shaky claims. Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Extrrrrrremely impressed with the sophistication of these machine-learning researchers in the Sunni enclave of Tripoli, Lebanon. They know the problems with distance metrics inside out. They are working to produce entropy maps. pic.twitter.com/l25u9k1C2v Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@EbbcMunich Our session last Tuesday was a great workshop based on Antifragile by @nntaleb For more info see https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6559842939617456128   Permalink 5:46 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So Quillette’s IQ “scientific” racism is more scientific than the Nazi’s racism/racial superiority theories? https://twitter.com/proclete/status/1155813118150422528?s=20   Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Is @clairlemon still denying that her Quillete project is into a neo-Nazi “scientific” racism (“race realism”) agenda? Permalink 5:08 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@scmarco69 Cf cet article technique de Taleb: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155735795325636609   qui démontre que toute utilisation du QI dans le monde réel est à peu près vouée à l’échec. Permalink 4:49 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@Extrachelle Food of the Gods, literally. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155751198785449984   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hoyfVstWKq”>  pic.twitter.com/hoyfVstWKq Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Jul 2019

@normonics Intelligence is WAY too important and essential for what it means to be human to cede to the low-dimensional Pinker-style quillette IQ pseudointellectuals Permalink 6:04 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@normonics Why is @nntaleb calling @Quillette promotion of race science via IQ a neo-nazi agenda? Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No. https://twitter.com/Jazzy_ggxx/status/1155534241372999680   Permalink 10:47 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb He is hired. His thread explains much of my position on IQ research. Add that 1) I don’t deny heritability of *something* in non-feedback linear environments, 2) Higher dimensions are not tractable (curse of dimensionality) & #Quilletteidiots don’t get it https://twitter.com/sean_a_mcclure/status/1155487369019232259?s=20   Permalink 10:32 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@HenryJOncology #skininthegame @nntaleb tells a more important issue: no one except #patients benefit from using hard endpoints that result in trial failure. Everyone else benefits with a positive result in USA. Perverse incentives to create bad trials with weak endpoints. @VincentRK https://twitter.com/HenryJOncology/status/1155525572271005697   Permalink 10:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@EricTopol He’s my new friend! Thanks @JpMikhaiel for your perceptive take, especially for bringing in @nntaleb’s important work. And kudos @kevinmd for hosting a site that gives medical students the chance to get their views out https://twitter.com/hipp0kratis/status/1155518666815000576   Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DaveGulimlim Reading Antifragile by @nntaleb tonight. I’m about to reach halfway and the insights are staggering. This might be one of the most influential books for me this year. “I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.” https://twitter.com/DaveGulimlim/status/1155485670019747840/photo/1 href=” http://pic.twitter.com/7MtEosIItd  pic.twitter.com/vjtmKyi3yb”> pic.twitter.com/7MtEosIItd pic.twitter.com/vjtmKyi3ybPermalink 7:35 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I have always fought those who accuse others Nazism & eugenics. So far I’ve made one single accusation of neo-Nazi agenda: @clairlemon & the broad @Quillette crowd, for their closet promotion of pseudoscientific ideas about IQ, race, etc., under cover of defense of free-speech. https://twitter.com/Ol_Wall/status/1155475727979970562   Permalink 7:01 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Perhaps before lecturing people about “understanding reality”, Ms. Lehmann should make some effort in getting schooling in elementary statistics. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155472268295725056?s=20   Permalink 6:48 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@ReadTrying The problem with Taleb isnt that he’s an asshole. He is an asshole. The problem with Taleb is that he’s an asshole and he’s right. Permalink 6:09 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap I’ve been getting nonstop from Quilette followers. pic.twitter.com/5js8w1xrooPermalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@DA_Stockman Tulsi Gabbard’s Suit Against Google Is A Double Plus Good https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/tulsi-gabbards-suit-against-google-is-a-double-plus-good/   Permalink 4:21 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Answer @SamuelGWalters. For all x>0. Now the left side? pic.twitter.com/repUnkL7pRPermalink 3:57 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb How many fucking times do I have to repeat that I have public tutorial lectures on probability? https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww   https://twitter.com/raushan2020/status/1155425057663062016   Permalink 3:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Math Problem du jour: Can you make the right side tighter? https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1154611803323686913   Permalink 3:26 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I said Greek not just Orthodox because of a cluster of inherited Byzantine stuff: the architecture (the dome is Byzantine), the prayer (initial Greek prayer included prostration), etc. Permalink 2:45 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb To continue the thread. Lehman is a fraud, & not smart enough to be caught. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155404493867106304?s=20   Permalink 2:13 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Nationalists, falsely accused of racism, hold “all children are equal but each under obligation to give preference to their own” @Quilette’s full neo-Nazi approach: “these people are genetically inferior; let us find the science ( and fake defense of free speech) to back it up” Permalink 1:56 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb A nonvote for the official democrat will effectively be a half-vote for Trump. Gabish? Permalink 1:28 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those who doubt the Greek Orthodox origin of the female veil (Iranian style)… Church in Amioun. pic.twitter.com/M5LfM7mRlMPermalink 12:36 AM – 28 Jul 2019

@nntaleb My speculation that there will be a growing closet Trump support in the far left is getting more and more confirmation. https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/1155225067644542976   Permalink 3:00 PM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Yes I know I am rude by calling IQ people imbeciles (which they are). But they are classifying entire populations as idiots. People who already have enough problems. I am going to upset the “Fake free-speech” @Quillette crowd & “Klueeeeless Claire” @clairlemon a bit more. Permalink 9:36 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb BTّW for those who want to see my thingy with IQ, here is the paper, heading towards the half a million readers. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Klueless Claire” Lehman, @clairlemon you are so kluuuuless abt Popper/falsification it’s not even funny. Statistical claims in psych are not testable in the Popperian sense, & if they are, can be easily falsified by showing the metric is uninformative. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155084999328014336?s=20   Permalink 5:11 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Also impossible to teach charlatans that “handwaving” means exactly what THEY do for a living. @clairlemon should stop Quillette, and take a study sabbatical (5-10 years) to do some elementary statistics, data science, etc., before uttering such verbiage. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155078139585761281?s=20   Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Impossible to teach charlatans the very notion that SCIENCE=RIGOR, little else. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155078139585761281?s=20   Permalink 4:44 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@oskarth Spotted in Taiwan in traditional Chinese! Works for asymmetrical one arm overhead presses too. pic.twitter.com/m7G988cCVgPermalink 4:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Friends, any idea how to make @wolfram Mathematica data synchronous? One single missing date makes comparisons very hard. pic.twitter.com/3Zais8pSpAPermalink 4:14 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those into some math, here is why social scientists don’t seem to know what correlation means. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 3:53 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Finally submitted to journal my paper showing psychological research on forecasting is largely fiction. (Includes @Ptetlock’s superforekast not even mentioned in paper) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cWgl3ZJP9K”>  pic.twitter.com/cWgl3ZJP9K Permalink 3:46 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I am not discounting heredity. But the research extending it to such matters as “intelligence” is largely fraud. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1155063096731480065?s=20   Permalink 3:37 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Behavioral genetics is largely an intellectual fraud. Resisting promoting them, @clairlemon, even if you like their message. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1155043769370025984   Permalink 3:19 AM – 27 Jul 2019

@trishankkarthik First impressions on the @SS_strength seminar: There are a lot of similarities between @CoachRippetoe and @nntaleb: they both say what they like fearlessly, do not suffer BS gladly (can tell by passionate anger), and are funny as hell while delivering powerful truths Permalink 9:24 PM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Philological coincidences, 1 In French, crier is to shout, in English (primarily) to shed tears. In Lebanese, 3ayyet is to shout, in Egyptian 3ayyat is to shed tears. Permalink 3:50 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Lamma 7ada bi 2llak lbet beytak, bi2akkidlak inno hayda mush baytak. Permalink 3:40 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principal benefit of Mathematica, as @financequant figured out, is that everything is precisely defined. Mathematical papers often have shortcuts or fuzzy definitions (particularly when dealing with vectors and matrices); @Wolfram Mathematica has to be exact. Permalink 2:44 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We respond to Clayton’s comment on my paper in defense of “Klueless Nate” Silver. pic.twitter.com/RkLg6L31kz Permalink 1:23 AM – 26 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The problem is not babbling journalists. The problem is that the entire intelligentsia has been saying the same crap. Commentary on the events of the Trump presidency provide the best test of mental faculties. https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1154086058918916097   Permalink 4:13 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb James @drjamesdinic is figuring out something central. What do ALL elements of this list have in common? These are ULTRA MODERN, not #Lindy. Worse than sugar: seed oils touted as “healthy”(olive/avoc./cocon. oils are not seed oils). And seed oils are everywhere in restaurants. https://twitter.com/drjamesdinic/status/1154337958385917952   Permalink 3:59 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@CarstenBKK Here is @nntaleb et. al. take on climate change. I can’t phrase it any better: https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7nqiuU1S2i”>  pic.twitter.com/7nqiuU1S2i Permalink 3:06 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The principle of revelation of preferences (#skininthegame) is what people do, where people go, how they vote with their feet, not what’s published some paper with pictures. https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/1154460234842165249   Permalink 1:56 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@lhamtil Whenever people suggest my sector & industry analysis is tired, I refer them to this passage by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/YAiX3pywVn Permalink 1:18 PM – 25 Jul 2019

@Jaffer22915438 Breaking: Tulsi sues Google for interference and manipulation! https://www.tulsi2020.com/tulsi-vs-google?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=190725_bigtech   Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard 2/3 – #Google controls 88% of internet search in the US — giving it control over our access to information. Google’s arbitrary suspension of the account of a presidential candidate should be of concern to all Americans. http://tulsi.to/tulsi-vs-google   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard TULSI2020: In the hours following the 1st debate, while millions of Americans searched for info about Tulsi, Google suspended her search ad account w/o explanation. It is vital to our democracy that big tech companies can’t affect the outcome of elections http://tulsi.to/tulsi-vs-google   Permalink 10:33 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@paulportesi Thread by @nntaleb: “1- Never take any advice from someone you didn’t ask for advice. 2- Never take any financial advice from someone who hasr a living. 3- The only thing a business school professor can teach you is how to become a business school pr []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1093163028739248129.html   Permalink 7:10 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Invent a probability distribution that’s neither thin nor fat tailed. [Jetlag in Northern Phoenicia] pic.twitter.com/7XMYmK1Pb1 Permalink 4:07 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) I asked Ridley for tail risk analysis for GMO crops. He showed a few statistically lame papers showing “benefits”, and some scientism. And if there is no tail risk analysis it’s because GMO peddlers do not even know what tail risk means. https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1154126020942991360?s=20   Permalink 3:11 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Drove to Ehden from the coast. Tallied the names of villages on the way. Not only there was NOT a single village with Arab name, but there were: +Balamand (Belmont, Crusader) +Rushdebbin (Roche des Pins, Crusader) +Kousba (my mother’s) (Cuspa, Roman) Stop the Arabist fraud. Permalink 2:57 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Boris Johnson’s position on GMOs/biotech which effectively centralize and delocalize crops (puts nature in the hands of technocorps) is opposite to his position on Brexit which effectively localist & against socioeconomic centralization (puts Britain in the hands of technocrats)! Permalink 2:50 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@davidsarac I am getting to appreciate how highly educated people are the most dangerous thing on the planet. In a same way how excess of order produces evil, too much exposure to academic environment produces retardation of mental faculties @normonics @nntaleb @GreenRupertRead https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1154126020942991360   Permalink 12:12 AM – 25 Jul 2019

@Petepicasso10 Intellectuals yet idiots like @nntaleb would say. https://twitter.com/Suffragentleman/status/1153727052601856003   Permalink 7:49 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ron Paul & @DanielLMcAdams are my filter in the middle of the noise. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1154101196921212930   Permalink 1:40 PM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Correction: I meant I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than agree with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? Permalink 11:38 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is certain that Ms @RaniaKhalek has no notion of what a fallacy means. The problem isn’t convincing her & other intellectual rejects in her group, but making people with brains are aware of these fraudulent slogans thrown at them. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1152234669783560192?s=20   Permalink 9:34 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Started to ship https://amzn.to/2XLMaTF   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1142416150254575617   Permalink 6:57 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@ggreenwald It’s also bizarre to watch House Democrats constantly herald Mueller’s career as one of great “moral rectitude.” Does this little episode just not count at all? pic.twitter.com/fTenOKlgbi Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I’d rather disagree with Andrew Gelman (whom I respect) than with Jordan Peterson (whom I despise). Gabish? https://twitter.com/DavidRedelingh2/status/1154003900879527936   Permalink 5:35 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mistakes: In Lebanese, l not el; 3arabiyyé not siyyara. But good effort. Permalink 2:03 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Mathematica is addictive and makes math addictive. https://twitter.com/stevenstrogatz/status/1153766126855307265   Permalink 2:01 AM – 24 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman’s discussion with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about sexism, racism and retrospective bigoteering in the U.S. Declaration of Independence https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/07/23/discussion-with-nassim-taleb-about-sexism-and-racism-in-the-declaration-of-independence/#.XTd6s5XxrMc.twitter   Permalink 2:24 PM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb We are clearly winning. The geopolitical state can no longer control the language. Bottom up wins in the age of social media. https://twitter.com/ChristoChammas/status/1153683744403992579   Permalink 10:05 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If someone acts like a shill, odds are he/she is a shill. (Dan Gardner busted) https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1153475301063745536   Permalink 4:40 AM – 23 Jul 2019

@nntaleb CNN, the designation “congresswoman of color” is itself racist. pic.twitter.com/TREH8dRRZt Permalink 7:23 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) Never trust a journalist unless she’s your mother. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1152195094398873602   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) Thomas “the Chin” Friedman… https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1152195094398873602   Permalink 7:09 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Virtue is the difference between what you do in public and what you do in private. Permalink 3:21 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I finally got that Bolton doesn’t exist as an advisor; he is at best a negotiation tool. He is just someone who barks very loud and incoherently so Trump can make a deal, if possible. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1153390958798680065   Permalink 12:51 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Done with the paper on forecasting, debunking the BS by “Phil the rat” Tetlock @ptetlock. Addresses some problems with @robinhanson and his claims about prediction markets. https://www.academia.edu/38962327/On_the_Statistical_Differences_between_Binary_Forecasts_and_Real_World_Payoffs   Permalink 12:18 PM – 22 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman #universalexports #goldfinger pic.twitter.com/ZfNrAcQu7R Permalink 7:24 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You don’t need mathematics to be rigorous; you can achieve formalism w/legal documents, where everything is precisely defined. Contracts & codes from Theodosius to Cambaceres→elimination of VERBALISM from documents. I learned that w/financial term sheets. Everything is mapped. Permalink 6:19 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Verbalism, a general definition. Does it supercede all other “fallacies” in critical thinking made in intellectual discourse? pic.twitter.com/quMrzs9kji Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@jimmy_wales Is there a way to get back to the old twitter interface? Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “You may eventually forgive and befriend someone who harmed you, never someone who bored you.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:11 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb “Pharma is better at invending diseases for its existing treatments, than treatments for existing diseases” Bed of Procrustes https://twitter.com/Firefly_fan/status/1153043992327675904   Permalink 1:49 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is a 10 sigma event? Wittgenstein’s Ruler https://youtu.be/k_lYeNuBTE8   Permalink 12:52 PM – 21 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You can only disagree with people who are wrong, not those who are “not even wrong”. When you engage a charlatan (as with @snowded for the above derivations) he represents your debunking his fallacies for a “disagreement”. Permalink 7:51 AM – 21 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:07 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Doesn’t look like your regular IT professional. At 73. https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1152240931015462914   Permalink 5:21 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@financequant Sigh… If it NEVER works then why? https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1152687931183816714   Permalink 2:47 PM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This has been on for 5 years, @Adam_Bat https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww/videos   https://twitter.com/Adam_Bat/status/1152643920339308545   Permalink 11:22 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:10 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb God made mathematics so you can tell me where I am wrong; the fragility of a derivation is transparent for all to see. Formalism allows the slightest nonsense to show. Some econs/psychs produce obscure equations to hide nonsense. They get caught: you can debunk using math! Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, This is my precise definitions for Fragility, Robustness, & Antifragility. The paper is here. This will be part of the 2nd vol of the Technical Incerto (Includes #Lindy) called: “Fragility Risk and Convexity”. (link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0hhs/Fragility%20Taleb%20Douady%202012.pdf?dl=0  ) http://dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uVIugpXzen”>  pic.twitter.com/uVIugpXzen Permalink 5:14 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Science is not about authority, consensus, and verbalisms, but proofs and derivations. Permalink 3:42 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Snowden, I said it before: you are a handwaving bullshitter. Show us some mathematical formalism if you can or shut the fuck up. Permalink 3:37 AM – 20 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I meant squatting closer to your max: when you are in the lower position. Permalink 2:07 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It’s there. Just a small suggestion: perhaps you should read the book before lecktschuring its author. Permalink 1:21 PM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) This is exactly why academic tests select for those nerdy enough be motivated during the test; no translation to mental powers in real life. 2) @CoachRippetoe reports the same “panic” while deadlifting close to your max: you need to stand up, failure is no option. https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/1138205473889558528   Permalink 12:02 PM – 19 Jul 2019

Ergodicity, Immigration, Nudgers, Monsanto, Gold, Blue, Pedophrasty, Pinker, Harris | Twitter

@nntaleb Ergodicity part 2! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1013450757943775233   Permalink 2:12 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He got ergodicity. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1013450358163755010   Permalink 2:08 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Of course. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1013019208085639169   Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war. & as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place. So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The discussion is not about the invention of calculus, but about Leibnitz, the last of the real polymaths (although he didn’t lift weights), and how mathematics is something that one can pick-up later in life. Gabish? Permalink 5:48 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) OK, OK, my Indian friends. Rediscovered calculus. Works now? Permalink 7:33 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Leibniz was a legal philosopher who at the age of 26 decided to learn math, then (co)invented calculus. https://twitter.com/MathsEdIdeas/status/1013204854066606081   Permalink 7:26 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up. Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions. Permalink 7:22 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@normonics It’s not just pol sci people. The idea that the scale of a system is relevant to its behavior is OBVIOUS; yet almost never accounted for. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1013100413602680837   Permalink 3:10 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb What intellectuals don’t get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY: OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame Gabish? Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@Jeff_Fine Questions? pic.twitter.com/e7r4mQunXF Permalink 1:03 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn’t work. For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn’t exist. Permalink 12:59 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) This illusion that one can work with abstract ideas WITHOUT embedding them is the reason “intellectuals” don’t get skin in the game. (thread w @ClaireBerlinski ) Permalink 9:44 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is some type of common reasoning defect shared by people in political “science”: they don’t get scaling “Democracy” is not scalable. They don’t understand my insults: it’s not about ideas but in what environments ideas can be practically executed #ComplexSystems https://twitter.com/ClaireBerlinski/status/1013058174465859587   Permalink 9:42 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@Baloo1987 An article written by a toxicologist working for #Monsanto is then handed to regulators who then simply copy-pasted it into the EU regulatory review. The definition a revolving door. Unbelievable! #CIJsummer #MonsantoPapers pic.twitter.com/jdJtyBa60K Permalink 6:02 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Functional Equation https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/DorinMarghidanuFunctionalEquation.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WRgWtwrGRm”>  pic.twitter.com/WRgWtwrGRm Permalink 5:43 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Hope @freakonometrics can comment, as a follow-up to our debate with @DrCirillo as to whether statisticians have considered such consequence of fattailedness. All comments, whether positive or negative, are welcome. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 2:53 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Congress set up non-profits to raise $ for @NIH & @CDCGov. They illegally hid info about their corporate donors. Meanwhile, US health experienced its worst decline in a century. Now they’re lying about it. Time for #skininthegame. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/us-lawmakers-want-nih-and-cdc-foundations-say-more-about-donors   cc: @nntaleb Permalink 2:41 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fraud Alert: QUORA ask Statisticians what they think of my work and get Unethical Mandari Narayan @neurostats to comment on anecdotes from Incerto, WITHOUT considering technical work. The fraud by Mandari Narayan sits for 3 y on the web. Comment on this! http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   Permalink 2:07 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The initial results of the M4 Competition can be found/downloaded in https://www.m4.unic.ac.cy/results/   The ranking of the first half of methods can be seen below ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fPmOZHkUGw”>  pic.twitter.com/fPmOZHkUGw Permalink 9:46 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never been more excited to attend a conference! @NECSI’s #ICCS2018 https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/1012102041446084608   Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other counterintuitive aspect is that EVEN if Country X won EVERY past game, injecting a tiny bit of randomness into the system can make its probability of winning drop below, say, 10%. A tiny bit of randomness percolates quickly across the branches of the tree. Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is a set of probabilities that can give Germany 25% of winning without 100% probability of being in the semi-finals: that CONDITIONAL on making the semi-finals probability increases. However, the opposite holds: the higher up, the MORE 1/n. Gabish? Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Et cela continue https://www.capital.fr/votre-carriere/la-bibliotheque-du-manager-jouer-sa-peau-de-nicholas-taleb-1295541   Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria). The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/r3T9zNsB4k”>  pic.twitter.com/r3T9zNsB4k Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final. Don’t listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability. Permalink 5:07 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Discovered something: negative kurtosis and negative kappa. Some distributions are thinner-tailed than the Gaussian (needs to be bimodal) pic.twitter.com/JW0q7oFBok Permalink 4:56 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, thanks to the crowd-corrections @spyrosmakrid gave me a stay of execution. I got an extension. Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Les françaises et français commencent a aimer mon livre “Jouer sa peau”. Ils en ont marre de leur fonctionnaires. pic.twitter.com/wgZoj0bCJG Permalink 4:47 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Naturally it debunks some of the “nudgers” s.a. @r_thaler showing they don’t understand fat tails & probability. pic.twitter.com/FKZJiIgnef Permalink 4:00 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, I was told in no uncertain terms by the editors & @spyrosmakrid that I get severely punished if I don’t meet the deadline for this paper (today). Please help find errors. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0   (cont) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jvngV00bHs”>  pic.twitter.com/jvngV00bHs Permalink 3:59 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@StoolPoop I like that @nntaleb isnt left or right but rather local over global. I imagine he respects the harassing of pols in public. “Keep them close enough to kick them” Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn’t be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can’t people think in 1 ½ order effects? https://twitter.com/business/status/997061733566107649   Permalink 9:44 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 The idea to eat a plant-based diet is based on 2 mistakes. 1. Blaming meat for what ultra-processed foods did. 2. Blaming cholesterol for what insulin resistance did. Permalink 9:31 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To prove to Spyros I am really working on it, here is the paper in progress. Friends can help with typos. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 8:06 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is meta-Skin in the Game https://twitter.com/michaelbjacksa/status/1011639219998150656   Permalink 3:24 PM – 26 Jun 2018

@LucasVitorinoS3 ‘Homens fracos agem para satisfazer suas necessidades, homens fortes agem para cumprir seus deveres’ – @nntaleb Permalink 10:58 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@normonics If you’re concerned about what we’re doing to the climate by exposing it to a large amount of a non-novel agent You should be MUCH MORE concerned about GMO agr, as we are exposing ecosystems globally to massive amount of novel agents — including living ones that can replicate! Permalink 9:31 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Essay: Monsanto’s ghostwriting and strong-arming threaten sound science—and society http://www.ehn.org/monsanto-effort-to-skew-science-2581194459.html   Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The heuristic is, simply, production of a commodity / volatility, signal/noise and you can see how much additional discovery/supply matters. Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand that @JustinWolfers is just another academic living on charity; but surprised to discover that @neelkashkari is head of a Fed and doesn’t realize that existing gold stock is monstrous in relation to production. Who put him there? Permalink 5:26 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Quant Finance researchers meet Medicine Quants today: pic.twitter.com/4P99A33mVR Permalink 3:36 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Antigragility: my lecktchur in 2 hours https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1011244554622676992   Permalink 12:52 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These idiots have never traded gold and seen forward contracts sold by producers. Permalink 12:46 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In fact unlike with money supply, gold miners are distributed and in competition. Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These 2 clueeeeeeeeless economists have no idea that the competitive mahket values gold in the ground as an asset with optionality. I mean clueeeeless. @JustinWolfers is particularly ignorant of everything. https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1011309709012488193   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@d_a_n Some things don’t scale. Consider how you react to a car blocking the road. Small community – I get out, say hi, ask if help is needed, chat happily for 30 mins City – I hoot, swear, call the cops, maybe resort to road rage (thanks to @nntaleb for the insight) Permalink 9:30 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As I said the English “commoners” accept their GENETIC inferiority to the aristocracy but these hypocrites go on talking about political correctness with other commoners. Disgusting. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1010121158233116674   Permalink 9:26 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Background and solution pic.twitter.com/kEkc0xx98H Permalink 7:38 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@catoletters Robert Mueller was the biggest obstacle for Sept. 11 families who wanted to sue Saudi Arabia https://washex.am/2lodyqk   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Syrian Christianity, something 1300 years of Arab rule didn’t do; Remember Christianity was born there, the NT was in the Greek of Antioch. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-24/ben-rhodes-admits-obama-armed-jihadists-syria-bombshell-interview   Permalink 6:16 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mini-Lecture (5 min) today at BBQ (Bloomberg Quant Seminar) in Honor of Rabbi “Tony” Glickman, 1950-2018. “Life is Long Gamma” @DaliaGlickman pic.twitter.com/QKyjXvGnVJ Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb BTW to understand what is called “GMO”, see this http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BCfzvMNc19″>  pic.twitter.com/BCfzvMNc19 Permalink 4:10 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A Canadian brewer, @SteamWhistle is being harrassed by shills for listing “GMO free” on its beer. Turned out it is illegal in Canada to say “GMO free” (without some disclaimer): who wrote that law? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1011197845578436608   Permalink 3:44 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@jj_mllr New Blogpost: How two tweets about a simple coin toss experiment by @drob and @nntaleb can cause an academic existential crisis: Coin Tosses, Markov Chains, and an Existential Crisis. https://correlaid.org/blog/posts/markov-chains   Permalink 2:40 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after 6 ½ years, someone found a mistake in Antifragile. Will correct ASAP. The ancients had a color for blue. All references on that are wrong. https://twitter.com/Shuwen22973519/status/1011008301549674496   Permalink 3:13 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Prove that limit Gamma[n,n]/Gamma[n]=½ as n->infinity pic.twitter.com/LL5XJpn9P6 Permalink 2:36 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Accidentally stumbling on a helpful identity on a Sunday morning… pic.twitter.com/7hrrm634r5 Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Big Ag using financially insecure journos/”sci communicators” to sell: GMO/Glyphosate = science HENCE technosalvation (pedophrasty: only they can help “starving children” ) Anecdote = “evidence based” Bezos got that better food distribution >>technoBS https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1010659272756088832   Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@NicuMihalache #skininthegame, the book by @nntaleb starts gently and rather predictably for those familiar with the Incerto series (and his Medium articles https://medium.com/@nntaleb  ) then it takes you for a series of spins so that you want to tweet every other paragraph Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb MONSANTO Charlatan Watch: ask BS vendor @mark_lynas to produce systematic safety studies. Also ask him why he is in favor of both GMOs and Glyphosate (except that GMOs are an excuse to >3x pesticides & fry your soil). Charlatan! https://www.wsj.com/articles/confession-of-an-anti-gmo-activist-1529679465   via @WSJ Permalink 4:54 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@HypPioneer @nntaleb weighs in scam artists exploiting children to get what they want politically (open borders, war, etc.): https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 4:35 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ralph Nader Asks Former First Ladies: Why No “Heartfelt Concern for Tens of Thousands of Children Killed or Seriously Maimed” by Their Husbands’ Wars? – https://goo.gl/z4Ydz5   via @commondreams Permalink 3:18 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb All East Med citizens are nervously waiting for the selection of the new Byzantine Emperor. Permalink 3:42 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@thomas_quinlan Today’s word of the day: pedophrasty — the use of pictures of suffering children to advance an agenda. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-23/obama-kept-them-cages-pedophrastry-politicians-exposed   This story via @zerohedge but term coined by the brilliant @nntaleb, here: https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Let me dispell some mistakes. Do not conflate farniente with laziness. In the Med, idleness is never a virtue unless the person gets rich or does great things while exercizing it. That’s the difference with other cultures both further North and further South. Gabish? Permalink 12:06 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@ErwanLeCorre Ethically-evolved sports will avoid micro-agressions, turn sports fields into safe spaces. Next progress: kill the social-construct which is “competency.” The ultimate step: competition is elitist and inherently discriminatory. No more losers: EVERYONE WINS. pic.twitter.com/ODXHngjQl8 Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Visually. We can also count the triangles pic.twitter.com/4AIJncTcRo Permalink 10:15 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@_benoux_ Exactly! I also like the clear distinction of @nntaleb on Sophrosyne (σωφροσύνη) vs. Rationality based on “graphs”, “facts” and “evidence”, all based on current state. Current state – one day – will collapse. It’s hybris to act on the presumption of immortality. pic.twitter.com/tqjX3d4x0C Permalink 10:04 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor. Permalink 5:54 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Laura, but Naples for me is not monuments for tourists, but 1) narrow streets with laudry hanging from the window, 2) a f*** you attitude that permeates the place, 3) A (tiny) remaining Greek-Orthodox minority… pic.twitter.com/yRV259U1up Permalink 5:49 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, fughotaboud Genova, better choice than Venice. You need to find a place WITHOUT Goethe-inspired visiting Northerners who don’t know what sitting at a terrace doing absolutely nothing means. These include de-Mediterranized Northern Italians. Permalink 4:01 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It always depends on the terrace. And I prefer Naples or Palermo. https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1010212840505069569   Permalink 3:50 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@GuyMorant Attention manipulation. Le génial essayiste Nassim Taleb partage un cas troublant d’utilisation d’une photo d’enfant pour court-circuiter la réflexion. “Pédophrastie”, retenez ce terme. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1010262470806659076   Permalink 10:54 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember that just as surgeons don’t look like surgeons strong men don’t look like athletes in ancient Greek sculptures. pic.twitter.com/VJSlKH3ZXx Permalink 2:44 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Which is why it was necessary to coin the term “pedophrasty”. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1010121223206993920   Permalink 1:45 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/860823348238061570   Permalink 1:17 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It continues… Mistake: he didn’t realize that people who really lift weights (instead of using machines) don’t have a thin waist. (cont) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1010214913627828230   Permalink 1:16 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. pic.twitter.com/3E29W3pr5u Permalink 12:37 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Never speak ill of the dead. But one can stay silent about him if he CAUSED deaths. If he advocated the Iraq War/WMD nonsense, then without REPENTANCE, another regime change/war, one must stay silent. For extreme cases: damnatio memoriae יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ Permalink 8:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People here aren’t getting the aberration: +Book written in US; author in US; publisher in US; readers (of US edition) in US. +Printed in China <=> Chinese censorship. +Publishers & Authors find this NORMAL. This is one side of Globalism Globalists need to explain. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Note that my problem with Chinese printers was resolved amicably (they accepted) but I am SHOCKED that no other author had the guts to stand up to the weirdness Chinese censorship of a US book by a US author. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 6:34 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If BS Vendor Pinker’s @sapinker’s book was a scientific paper, it would have been retracted. Pinker has not answered question w/@DrCirillo : Why is he making Richardson say something OPPOSITE to what he said? All his “evidence” reposes on that. pic.twitter.com/75WpSF8Hi0 Permalink 5:31 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@Zilvera1 Brilliant van @nntaleb over salafisme.The bureaucrats and representatives of the“elites” (Van Aartsen) are fooled by the label. They treat Salafism as just a religion –with its houses of “worship” — when in fact it is just an intolerant political system. https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 5:10 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@market_fox An example of why “doctors should not look like doctors” @nntaleb http://webuser.bus.umich.edu/dsosyura/Research%20Papers/FamilyDescentDec2016.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3HFYZhkFxR”>  pic.twitter.com/3HFYZhkFxR Permalink 4:13 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To summarize thread above, rationality is not about “beliefs” but actions, #SkinInTheGame. It is not scientific to evaluate raw “beliefs”. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/KhOyJPJYkm Permalink 2:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@z3nblack Sometimes I find @nntaleb is standing against an army on his own. Then again, I realize these battles are not fought with guns or swords. One can project the power (& refinement) of their mind against the many, & the numbers *against* don’t matter. Interesting times to be alive. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009778944344776704   Permalink 2:39 PM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with Charlatan @SamHarrisOrg is that he talks about “rationality” without even remotely knowing what it means. Charlatan. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 11:56 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@TMFStoffel This excerpt from @JohnCarreyrou’s Bad Blood shows Elizabeth Holmes carrying out a version of @nntaleb’s *Pedophastry* Dubious claims of a heinous act that are a smokescreen and weaken claims of real victims https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dh32aC4uCG”>  pic.twitter.com/dh32aC4uCG Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Christianity is not *only* 2000 y old. It is a mutation of >4K y of Mediterranean-Anatolian creeds, mysteries, and mythologies. And its structure dates from the early Roman republic. Atheism has no #Lindy to build on, continue and progress from. https://twitter.com/Judgementional/status/1009777859769131008   Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@ggreenwald Is there any benefit or value at all in inquiring why these sorts of abuses generated so little attention and anger pre-2017, or should we just go ahead and ignore that question? See also: https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/KIND%20-%20Betraying%20Family%20Values.pdf   https://twitter.com/McClatchyDC/status/1009771953597624320   Permalink 5:19 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan. 1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect. 2 Imposture “neuroscientist” when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*? https://twitter.com/Tweetsintoabyss/status/1009755755837194241   Permalink 4:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Haha! https://twitter.com/ChielMuurling/status/1009746908682874885   Permalink 3:38 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get that Christianity is about church!= state https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 3:24 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Arabism and the bigoteering by Arabists. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ayMK7md7B6″>  pic.twitter.com/ayMK7md7B6 Permalink 3:13 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish. 2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/Gore_Burnelli/status/1009734775236677632   Permalink 3:10 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams” https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 1:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@rbarilla Maybe you still don’t “get” it. Without a proper vocabulary to describe unethical behavior, people cannot easily call out charlatans who exhibit such behavior. Given all of Taleb’s work, charlatans can now more easily be called out, including ourselves. Permalink 11:18 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams” https://medium.com/p/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 12:26 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here is the text by Peter Henry Fonda https://twitter.com/ElenaHaskins/status/1009470781456183296   Permalink 9:23 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember the principle that we shd ignore actors’ own words, only listen to them when they mindlessly recite words written by pple with higher capacities of reasoning, when they impersonate much worthier humans. For the Romans, actors were the lowest form of human life. https://twitter.com/iamfonda/status/1009311889472421888   Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The paper with the initial results of the M4 Competition (with a small typo) can be found in the link https://www.scribd.com/document/382185710/IJF-Published-M4-Paper   It can be also found in Science Direct shortly in the link https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.001   Good reading and apologies for the short delay. @robjhyndman Permalink 7:25 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A false accusation of rape has the side effect of inducing skepticism, causing genuine accusations to be taken less seriously. You are also harming the true victims. Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A light sentence is not sufficient. Under Hammurabi’s code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator. https://nyp.st/2tlIrz6   via @nypost Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Research by salaried laborers is becoming a rent-seeking citation ring consisting of large scale imitative rituals, with a decreasing number of results, an increasing cluelessness of participants, and a multiplication of useless rules. Permalink 5:45 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The antifragility from fragility equation! https://twitter.com/shaarsh2/status/1009415062287736833   Permalink 5:43 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@rma_adler @nntaleb Fantastic book, now my favorite gym shirt (self-designed). Best… pic.twitter.com/Dwc5kliWhx Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@ektrit Factual persecution of Christians now enshrined in Canadian Law. https://twitter.com/LifeSite/status/1009394685771767810   Permalink 4:17 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman discussing the replication crisis: “There are 1 million scientific publications per year. Do we have one million scientific discoveries per year?” Permalink 3:57 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My new policy is to respond to 10% of offenses, but hit > 10x harder. Better than responding to half the offenses, but hitting the victim twice harder. Exception is when I want to kill time in airports. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009102652532240385   Permalink 1:29 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb With the statistical vigilante, the great Andrew Gelman and Joshua Miller @jben0 pic.twitter.com/iIqZZzcIJb Permalink 12:54 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@sahouraxo The war criminal who oversaw the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children, separating them from their families forever, now wants us to believe that he suddenly cares about children. https://twitter.com/billclinton/status/1008379614908035073   Permalink 11:06 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Work with @spyrosmakrid on weather/climate https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1009019563923697664?s=21   Permalink 5:37 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Excellent news! Now if someone labels you as “Islamophobe” for opposing Salafinazism, you can sue. But try to squeeze more, a lot more out of them. https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1008724249794826246   Permalink 4:10 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@drjohnm @EJSMD has called the #COI of clinicians being employed one of the greatest COIs. < As @nntaleb wrote about, if you want to own someone, employ them. Recently heard in the doctor’s lounge: “Shh. they are listening.” Said in jest but… https://twitter.com/RogueRad/status/1009024816463142912   Permalink 3:51 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This idiot @matt_blackwell is a pol “scientist” doing “statistics” & didn’t get that news isn’t spreading because a minor actress is complaining abt her car being burned, but because @Tesla. Would the news spread if it were one of the other 180K? #IYI https://twitter.com/matt_blackwell/status/1008858264933666817   Permalink 3:43 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) There is this myth of “long run” data is thin tailed because of aggregation and “Central Limit”. A lot of BS. Just like “democracy”, “populism”, “racism”,”enlightenment”, the term “Central Limit” is uttered by parrots clueless of what they are talking about. pic.twitter.com/ZkDr8kuyHs Permalink 3:14 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) There are tests to see how Central Limit works: Summing data (say weekly returns) should produce thinner tails. Not the case. pic.twitter.com/nFLqRpOet0 Permalink 3:07 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Nice example of #SkinInTheGame https://twitter.com/alanshearer/status/1008826999526346752   Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Page 2, luckily there is no picture of me this time. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1008706906490273792   Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Thanks Shant. I am tired of people who come to my twitter account, dedicated to BS busting, expecting to hear some feel-good motivational sh*t. Permalink 7:46 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Milke Lawler @mikeandallie has done a grrrrrrrreat job explaining the Central Limit BS to his children. Preasymtotic behavior is CENTRAL. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1008134655424565254   Permalink 6:30 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is the kind of JUNK that has destroyed firms, social science/economics. CLT works at various speeds under fat tailed distributions. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   cc:@spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/theoremoftheday/status/1008698630033854465   Permalink 6:24 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you are trained/selected to think in Static terms. pic.twitter.com/ObaRcQKqRJ Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a counterintuive property, an illustration of why you need to use DYNAMIC thinking into things that are dynamic, not STATIC. (cont) https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/1008327243280670720   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 2 types of pple: Those who think in STATICS, those who think in DYNAMICS. Problem w/”intellectuals” & other idiots like @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein who become policymakers is that they can’t think in 2nd steps. Schools mismeasure intelligence w/low dimensional tests. pic.twitter.com/0Pl8LckQWJ Permalink 3:31 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule: the more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say anti-racism, anti-sexism), the more they will be used as a cover for unethical actions. Moral: remove all diversity rules for the sake of diversity. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1008476181425893378   Permalink 2:33 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@AllonMessenberg My father always said: “If you go to work every day, you have no time to make money!” Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@MisterNuance Zakaria is a textbook example of what @nntaleb warns about: a fake “expert” who pays no price for being wrong. https://twitter.com/fareedzakaria/status/1007448216210731008   Permalink 11:09 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 150K-200K car fires per annum. You take one event & an emotional statement of an actress & turn it into a statement about the safety of @Tesla. And this is 2018. I am blocking any commentator who doesn’t get it. In this and other similar situations. Finito. Permalink 8:08 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath … a counterintuitive property of coin-tossing: If Alice tosses a coin until she sees a head followed by a tail, and Bob tosses a coin until he sees two heads in a row, then on average, Alice will require four tosses while Bob will require six tosses … https://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/1008231518324617216   Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Proper approach: count the rate of these things for @Tesla, compare to other auto-makers, & adjust by other safety statistics. I can’t believe that 18 years after Fooled by Randomness this type of bulls**t is still rampant. Another rule: Never listen to actors except on acting. https://twitter.com/marycmccormack/status/1007831286176571394   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2-a) Every time I return from the W. Med it hits me there is *something* intense & sophisticated that’s different in the E. Med (i.e.,+Armenia/Georgia), reported since Byzantium. Turned out: The SILK ROAD & that Persian thingy Convinced @PZalloua to read @peterfrankopan’s book. Permalink 2:46 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is no argument in favor of pedophrasty that is not pedophrastic. (Circularity). https://twitter.com/elaines2cents/status/1008149614602514432   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) One only criterion for (material) success: not having a schedule. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Barbara @chicaderock, please read books BY Seneca, who was the real thing (a doer), not something ON Seneca by some library rat with a modern perspective. They will miss something essential. https://twitter.com/chicaderock/status/1008055357141405697   Permalink 12:05 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Moronic @hardsci, just 1 and we know which one it is. https://twitter.com/hardsci/status/1008036534614835205   Permalink 12:00 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that any argument (such as the one now used for illegal immigration) that is supported by pictures/narratives of children is called PEDOPHRASTY. Actually, use of children should weaken an argument. pic.twitter.com/qZ7Qn5pHN2 Permalink 6:48 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes pic.twitter.com/u4QKlVPV2I Permalink 4:13 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The carpenter fallacy: do you hire a carpenter to understand the odds of a sequence at the roulette table? Or a probabilist? Moral: the more advanced a nondeterministic science the more it becomes the domain of the applied probabilist. Genetics is a probabilty problem. Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) The geneticist Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia, with Mount Lebanon in the background. THREAD: on the carpenter fallacy in genetics to follow. pic.twitter.com/EVVw9sUHvw Permalink 2:08 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@ThePradosh When you are halfway through #JackDaniels & start to read work by @nntaleb, you realize what #Millennials are truly are. #bedofprocrustes pic.twitter.com/aGyBVJzaom Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Convexity in Medicine: How Pharma cheats with the “evidence” (aside from P-hacking) cc:@MichaelSagnerMD pic.twitter.com/ONl8EUkx7t Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Just a reminder that Noah Smith @Noahpinion is a a pure BS Vendor before you read him on anything related to anything (s.a. Theranos & Skin in the Game). Gabish? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 10:00 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The best surprise: a brand new gym in a converted mansion that belonged to a cousin of mine… pic.twitter.com/rLeJtOX9wi Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2/2 There are high demands to perform, indeed! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1007293724999733248   Permalink 6:16 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK. I found a local gym with barbells & a squat rack. Rushing there. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1007292750818168832   Permalink 6:14 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We should de-anonymizing the “peer-review” process: referees can be harmfully stupid or vicious w/o accountability. This idiot tried to reject paper w/@DrCirillo because he couldn’t translate that 4 page 8½ by 11 compressed 1-spaced =12 pages double-sp 6½ by 9. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/9wzwdtthZw Permalink 4:26 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Further, the same applies to “arm” and “hand”. pic.twitter.com/TZO2wuNtU5 Permalink 2:37 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The plot thickens: In Greek leg and foot are also πόδι, In Farsi both پا, but there is a more marked difference in Romance languages (gamba/piede) although pes in Latin can mean both. Permalink 2:31 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Like Phoenician, Aramaic, & Hebrew, the Lebanese lang. still uses the same word (ijr, rgl) for foot and leg in spite of 170 years of (failed) Arabization (foot in Arabic is قدم). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1007356478733410305   Permalink 12:48 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@oneraindrop A complex system has failed to act as expected by its designers, but has instead exhibites behavior that no one expected it to exhibit pic.twitter.com/gkPiDviKMX Permalink 7:17 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@thyagjs An important point from the SITG book by @nntaleb For those who do things, it is harder to talk about what they do. Reality doesn’t care about tawk. It is full of pauses and hesitations. Clear, non-hesitant speech is the domain of non-doers. Permalink 6:36 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 Here’s the most famous nutritionist in America, Walter Willett of Harvard, defending the use of seed oils, saying that new data that says they’re unhealthy isn’t relevant. Good example of why I no longer listen to these people. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/2016/04/13/diet-heart-ramsden-mce-bmj-comments/   Permalink 5:56 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb On the main difference between East Med and West Med (except for Provence) called here “milk of lions”. pic.twitter.com/scFhUxQZ6O Permalink 9:35 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot separate the Med diet from frequency. 1-FASTING Greeks were vegan 210 days. 2-Meat was eaten at festivals, in Yuge quantities, mostly FAT 3-Breakfast is a recent invention 4-“Dinner”=mostly mezze 5-Byphasic sleep 6-Hill/stairs climbing all the time 7-No seed oil Permalink 8:56 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Main lesson from the retraction (NEJM paper on Med diet): + Medicine is mostly (nonstandard) statistics + Medicine is abt convex dose-response NO expertise in biology/medicine will make up for it. PS- My paper on frequency/convexity in medicine was accepted. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/suvyboy/status/1007279809804857344   Permalink 8:29 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In Northern Phoenicia for the Weekend. Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, the real story is that @KarlreMarks was caught plagiarizing, then reacted exactly like a real plagiarist: he followed the maximally dishonorable route, digging then digging more. Permalink 2:53 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A new argument https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/1007028215343394816   Permalink 2:23 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite. Permalink 1:41 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here it is https://twitter.com/EmirChaabane/status/1007155547693633536   Permalink 12:02 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@sergioschloros This expression is recorded by in Homer “The proper meaning of ἀνανεύειν is to express dissent or refusal by throwing back the head, opposed to “κατανεύειν”, the corresponding gesture of assent or permission by nodding and bowing the head” http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0055%3Abook%3D9%3Acommline%3D468   Permalink 10:36 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb “τσου” as the Mediterranean “no”: A sound like “ts” (sucked lip) , coupled with a single nod, meaning “NO” (& a certain familiarity with the interlocutor). J2 Haplogroup countries: Phoenicia, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Sicily, Calabria, Western Syria. Any other? Permalink 10:30 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I thought I was the only one to call low IQ tawkers low IQ tawkers. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1006833565022031873   Permalink 8:19 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@financequant Wow! Opioids turned out to be addictive. Something we thought known for millennia but was, in fact, cleverly hidden by Big Pharma, probably in collusion with the FDA. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1006891422899949568   Permalink 7:59 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@primalpoly This @Harvard president’s email to alumni defends discrimination against Asian applicants, in the name of promoting ‘diversity’. How will this read in 20 years? http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/harvard-begs-to-discriminate.php?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=sw&utm_campaign=sw   Permalink 6:08 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, “no” in Maltese, Sicilian, Lebanese, and various other Med languages is “tsk” Permalink 3:18 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only in Sicily. The same hotel is famous both for housing R. Wagner when he finished Parsifal and for hosting a decisive mafia convention — in addition to being a preferred spot for various improvised and less improvised “meetings”. pic.twitter.com/0tswQH8I04 Permalink 12:55 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/MimeticValue/status/1006595643467431936   Permalink 2:07 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L3ayno zghiré ma bi kabbér, L3ayno kbiré ma bi zaghgher. Permalink 2:00 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L zghir ma bi kabbérak w l kbir ma bi zaghghrak. Permalink 11:15 AM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Taxi driver to Malta’s airport: Where are you flying to? Me: Palermo. Driver: vacation? Me: No. Meeting. Silence the rest of the journey. Permalink 1:49 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Interesting. Because it is true. https://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986737264041578496   Permalink 12:21 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Returnless Risk? pic.twitter.com/ObgzkPbhfJ Permalink 8:28 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 6) To understand the Romans, essential Meds, who shunned doing things themselves but praised builders: “Caesar pontem fecit” means Ceasar *had a bridge built* (by others), not “built a bridge” as usually translated. Tr. into French would be “a fait bâtir un pont” not “a bâti”. Permalink 12:45 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Strange absence of Arabian genes (Nabatean, North & South), though possible flow from Maghrebis. Some Phoenician/Anatolian/Greek. Will increase sample & look at more sophisticated maps but still. pic.twitter.com/5VCaUZMc6k Permalink 2:47 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The main difference is gh is pronounced 3, h with a bar=7, q = 2, x=sh … My only mistery: how did barra/juwwa get to them from Aramaic? Unless @safaitic is right and the Arabs who took the Maghreb spoke a branch of safaitic pic.twitter.com/OXF5J0Ce0c Permalink 1:08 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb He seems to be playing the agency problem of bureaucrats. People w/#SkinInTheGame are more interested in their fridge than remote (or even less remote) geopolitics & willing to settle w/peace as the default preference. Governments & bureaucrats have exact opposite preferences. https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1005795015287767046   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@JSuchJ “True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.” Great life insight from @nntaleb foreword to Ed Thorp’s A Man for All Markets pic.twitter.com/fTcqE88T0T Permalink 4:10 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Amos Tversky, the research partner of Kahneman, remarked that he “merely studied in a systematic way things about behaviour that were already known to advertisers and used-car salesmen”. #Lindy Evil nudgeboys Thaler-Sunstein do the exact opposite. https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/1338695   Permalink 3:53 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Now the mystery: there were a lot of Maltese-Lebanese trading families in Leb: +Abella, Sabella, Mamo, Camilleri, Aquilina, Borg (Borji), Mcallef +SALIBA in both (my mother’s original last name is Ghosn Saliba, not Ghosn) Phoenician practice to trade w/cousins across Med ? Permalink 1:55 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mr President, we shall start the invasion at 1400 hours. https://twitter.com/stevept/status/1005484647688491009   Permalink 4:19 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@trishankkarthik Once you come to #RWRI, you will never see the world the same way again @financequant @nntaleb https://twitter.com/l0bbelt/status/1005560429400264704   Permalink 2:28 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@normonics I like to say: GMO is like everyone in the world crossing the street together at the same time Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 5) Another reason there large entities don’t work in the Med, causing a scale problem: you cannot be alpha if you are not free & self-employed (or the boss), an employee of Goldman Sachs is of a lower status than a local doctor. Permalink 11:22 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can tell Maltese is a bit more Arabic than Lebanese: ecclesiatical & nonArabic Semitic terms are often from Latin/Italian whereas Leb uses Aramaic (Ġesù not Yasu3, Eva not 7awwa…) Means Maltese didn’t have these words in their corpus, which must have been Siculo-Arabic. Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) For instance to be Med you need to both disrespect hard work and respect success, exactly the opposite of the “work ethics” & the worship of labor in the non-necessarily Prostestant North. Permalink 9:44 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@Safaitic @nntaleb is on point. Stories of a grand Yemeni-Arab exodus following the collapse of the Marib dam are simply mythology. In no other field are legends taken at such face value. The term “Arab” and “Arabic” were appropriated and reimagined by Islamic-period writers to refer(cont. Permalink 3:00 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge: Pinning Beginning (i.e., past) and End (i.e., present) and looking at probabilities of what could have happened in between is very, very useful in GENETICS and LINGUISTICS. Even if you don’t have the exact proba, you get the structure. My solution here. pic.twitter.com/qGs50urYrC Permalink 2:11 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Which means the 2aysi( qaysi)-Yamani fights could be infighting, a division that mimics the Byzantine Green-Blue one –the Druze are almost entirely Anatolian, genetically closest to Kurds. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qays–Yaman_rivalry   Permalink 1:41 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is (in history textbooks) a story of Peninsular tribes settling into Lebanon (largely from Yemen). But genetics don’t show it: the Yemen story is a fabrication. Now @Safaitic is hinting that these tribes were from the Southern Levant. This can explain linguistic puzzles. https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1004991524944449536   Permalink 1:33 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The French have tried to become Meds for 2000 years. They can’t: except for spots, Germanics speaking a Latin language. Permalink 2:45 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Point is; if you’re not Med, you’ll never understand the Mediterranean. You can spend 31 y in Oxford reading “classics”, all that sh*t, & still understand nothing about the Mediterranean. Now, if you’re not Med, the closest you’ll ever get is via squid ink & Moustaki. Salve. Permalink 2:40 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Malta pic.twitter.com/36QTR8UZMc Permalink 12:58 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@cindyturlevnon كل استاذ مدرسة بعيّط ع تلميذ و بيجبرو يقول نعم غلطان وبيكون عم يمارس تعنيف لغوي. نحنا بطور لڤنن رح نوزّع مناشير توعية للمدارس عن الالفاظ السريانية بلغتنا اللبنانية، كمان مندعي كل بي و ام ما يستخفوا بالإرث الكبير يلي اخدناه من السرياني لغة جدودنا. #TurLevnon pic.twitter.com/GE45AX4C7v Permalink 9:40 AM – 8 Jun 2018

Harris, Shermer, Reviews, SKIN IN THE GAME, John Gray, Gini Estimation, Nate Silver, Alexander Bogomolny, Tetlock, Thaler | Twitter

@nntaleb Squid Ink pic.twitter.com/gmv3tadPcm Permalink 4:46 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) For some background, BS Vendor Sam Harris called me “insufferable”, then tried to make friends, then called me “insufferable” again after I refused (I am intolerant of BS). Permalink 2:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@BogeJan Calling @nntaleb arrogant because he calls you out on your BS is complete f-ing horseshit. He is extremely friendly and down to earth. He took the time to chat with me, a random fan, for a long time while he was visiting Norway, and even paid for my lunch! Opposite of arrogant! Permalink 2:17 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Gabish is the recreated pronounciation of Siculo-Galabrez (Calabrese); the “p” used to sound like a “b” and the “g” like a Semitic kof, a hard K, from Punic. Much like capicoli is “gabagool”. Gabish? Permalink 1:48 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb When I see fraud I say fraud. When I see BS I shout BS. NO intimidation, no smear campaign, no mobbing by fraudsters like Shermer, Harris et al. will make me stop. The more RISK I take for my opinions, the more HONORABLE I feel. #SkinintheGame. Gabish?https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/967825791416385536   Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just to insist that those Arabists who say that there was no such thing as Phoenicia as a placename are also probably not aware of the existence of such things as ancient authors. Permalink 11:56 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Pliny’s Natural History called the Levant strip “The Phoenician Sea”. Arabs later called the Med بحر الروم but like the “Persian” Gulf (=>”Arabian”) the name got redacted from texts. Brilliant idea @BellesLettresEd: superposed not juxtaposed bilingual txts pic.twitter.com/xrFwQMYOUu Permalink 11:45 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@SindreSN As a person working in credit risk management I could easily just look at @nntaleb’s books as insulting. But «insults» that are well argued for, thought through and accompanied by real life examples are the most valuable input I can get.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967784283174817793   Permalink 9:38 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “The Controversy around Skin in the Game”https://medium.com/p/the-controversy-around-skin-in-the-game-6d46416ee47f   Permalink 8:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Phil Coggan @econbuttonwood is thoughtful but didn’t realize my style has… not changed from when my message was better for him. I have always been iconoclastic –except my target is now journos. pic.twitter.com/QspWMY5qmi Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually, I just read the review line by line. Idiot-Shermer cherry-picks because the article continues: “All this is a shame, because the first, submerged Mr Taleb is still audible, and still has interesting things to say. ” Permalink 7:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb To explain it in my terms: the selfish gene is NOT necessarily ergodic (in practice will almost never be). Group selection is. Permalink 6:49 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb E.O. Wilson calls Dawkins a journalist, particularly after the reaction to the @DrMANowak paper: Dawkins & Pinker ignored the math. Shermer is a BS vendor; he doesn’t know science is based on rigor & statistical significance not multiplication of anecdotal descriptive graphs. Permalink 6:43 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The lost boarding pass. An old question but with an upcoming follow-up https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/LostPass.shtml   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/C7QokxE7AN”>  pic.twitter.com/C7QokxE7AN Permalink 5:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We can even track Roman genes in England … from US populations. Very exciting times for data scientists. pic.twitter.com/q7yDIUChd6 Permalink 5:07 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb You will notice that Phoenicians (mainly J2a) are not “Semitic”. Languages follow minority rules. Needs to add some Natufians as they may not all be haplo E. Permalink 5:04 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Science, History, Culture, & (soon) probability at their best: rigorous tracking of ancient populations through genes. Dates will change as many are sequencing individuals from archeological sites. Will be improved with inf. theory/probabilistic methods Here IJ haplogroups pic.twitter.com/7Q0Egn4E0k Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In all fairness, @johngapper agrees mainly with the point and find the book entertaining (adding this), but I could not resist playing with his “flaw” Permalink 4:02 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Zoe Williams, @zoesqwilliams should not put on public display a deficit in reading comprehension. pic.twitter.com/DHqxailG0u Permalink 3:48 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Starting here a thread putting some skin in the game of journos reviewing Skin in the Game. We start with @johngapper at the @FT. pic.twitter.com/vNDnyOcGtX Permalink 3:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I was polite I did not call them more accurately BS vendors. Gabish, @michaelshermer?https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/967584346319216640   Permalink 6:54 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson These are very much the points I was trying to make (with some success) when I spoke twice with @samharrisorg : @nntalebhttps://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 5:19 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Project Syndicate @ProSyn confirms they removed Henry Miller’s @henryImiller articles from their site. Permalink 1:25 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the curse of dimensionality (and why it makes errors grow rapidly, hence impossible to see high dimensional effects even from known causes) #GMOs #DelendaMonsanto pic.twitter.com/ZQAPgIM3ri Permalink 1:15 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the answer @CutTheKnotMath : As we add dimensions, something counterintuitive: the “half” space shrinks to …ZERO. This is the curse of dimensionality behind p!=np we used with GMO idiots.https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/967499284609490946   Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese traditional peasant dress. East Med., even Balkan.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/967487879940362240   Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel If I only had 2 minutes to capture the essence of @nntaleb’s Skin In The Game, it would be this clip, especially the end, when the lawyer goes to drink the water. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGX4nMrnxg0   #SkinInTheGame Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb By the way our argument (counter to what Monsanto shiils are claiming) is not against insulin GM and things “in the box” with low-dimensionality/known effects. Permalink 10:56 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the link to the lecktchurhttps://twitter.com/BNUnionSquareNY/status/967463517044510720   Permalink 10:50 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am retweeting this gem from @cutheknotmath because: as you go into higher dimensions, things happen… It explains our dimensionality argument againt ignorant GMO proponents and their unrigorous “science”.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/967391308963819520   Permalink 8:46 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear @HooverInst, can you please explain why you have taken no disciplinary action about @henryImiller’s case of scientific fraud? Should I take it up higher with @Stanford U.? Please let me know (as you know I will not give up.) cc: @EconTalker @nfergus Permalink 7:57 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 6) On the other hand, we can use science to debunk bogus historical claims using genetics and probabilistic methods. Permalink 5:15 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) The graph from Skin in the Game. This explains why people like charlatan Sam Harris BSing make “scientific” claims that are not covered by science. pic.twitter.com/1ic721A5TB Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I see the reason Matthew Syed @matthewsyed did not feel hostile towards Skin in the Game and yours truly: He was a doer become writing about things. Also, he may have some understanding of Shiism and minorities. Permalink 3:52 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The TIMES has a real review, first one in which the journalist doesn’t try to take revenge against author for dissing his profession.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/review-skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-down-with-the-intellectual-idiots-f2hp5gvd3   Permalink 2:42 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Omission is not symmetric to commission in the real world; only in pseudophilosophical parables. Permalink 3:04 PM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams is finally discovering that Skin in the Game means you can’t write a BS book review without SITG; don’t be surprised that the author is now capable of making you personally pay for it –and for a lonnnnnnnnng time.https://twitter.com/zoesqwilliams/status/966622916065587201   Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The author of the article (cc: @econbuttonwood ) didn’t get that SKIN IN THE GAME => if you are IN FAVOR of any such intervention (Lybia), you need to go live there in case it fails or pay SOME penalty. Via Negativa is Not symmetric. Journos have a tough time with clear concepts.https://twitter.com/BisayaFilms/status/967084583098376193   Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My New York book Lecktchur. The only lecktchur in the US. pic.twitter.com/Z4t4FV8Otg Permalink 9:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb That’s pure BS. BS. Jesus would have looked like some Southern European or a Turk, not a “Middle Eastern” https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4   Genetic evidence w/@PZallouahttps://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/967067244462133250   Permalink 8:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @DToshkov this is just redoing what @DrCirillo and I did. It wasn’t needed & has no scientific innovation (in creating estimators & historiographical tools). But it does confirms that @sapinker is a bullshitter.https://twitter.com/DToshkov/status/967023211966853121   Permalink 5:16 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction. Permalink 4:12 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) Let me rephrase for the slow at getting it. If you do not treat Tradition as (high dimensional) “experience”, you stand against science and statistical significance –the spine of experimental science. What has worked 10^10 times >>> some psych paper with 60% repl. error Permalink 3:42 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My section on rationality vs BS vending in Skin in the Gamehttps://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 2:59 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “Science and reason is the best we have” is a statement that is both pseudoscientific & irrational. It conflates science and scientism. Science is rigorous, makes no claims outside a v. narrow domain. “Tradition, risk management, and Skin in the Game is the best we have”. Permalink 2:57 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Someone said the debate was @sapinker Pinker against me. I am done after the statstcs part. Closed. The debate (if any) is non-erudite Pinker against uber-erudite John Gray. Permalink 3:01 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb John Gray is the GIANT.https://twitter.com/JasonCowleyNS/status/966658224484225024   Permalink 2:12 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Markov Chain approach pic.twitter.com/RYVxzpxr6h Permalink 2:10 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Expectation of the Largest Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ExpectationOfMaximum.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zM2T8rePxK”>  pic.twitter.com/zM2T8rePxK Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams conflates skin in the game & incentives. Skin in the game is ABOUT downside risk. “chief executives and shareholders who want values maximised – people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” Got it backwards! Pitiful. Permalink 8:04 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams also conflates skin in the game with conflict of interest (“mothers of murdered children”). How can one be so ignorant? A strange density of egregious mistakes per line in a book review… Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you are observing (Greek) Orthodox Lent, (vegan except for, strangely, crustaceous), something easy in Med/an olive oil country, & you find yourself traveling in a butter country where everything has dairy products Permalink 5:03 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The other blatant violation of “Political Correctness” in the @guardian no less: So be cause I am naturalized not native to the West I don’t have skin in the game? WTF is this? Permalink 4:22 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@MicMarsSays “CEOs and shareholders who want values maximised–people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” 1. Entrepreneurs have Skin-in-the-Game as doers 2. CEOs & shareholders are risk TRANSFERERS 3. Your conclusion inverts Taleb, as risk-transfer disenthralls Permalink 3:31 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb As a Lebanese Christian and given that we Levantine minorities are the main victims of Jihadis, I find Ms Zoe Williams’ claim about my absence of skin in the game w/the West very ignorant and, mostly, very very insensitive. Permalink 3:23 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Susan, being an author is not needed for symmetry. Symmetry is in what she is experiencing now, accountability for bullshitting in a book review. Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 I reviewed the main ideas of #SkinInTheGame on my twitter in this thread if anyone wants to readhttps://twitter.com/douglas9162/status/965968383736008704   Permalink 2:50 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@PostTruthSerum A list of British aircraft losses in Falklands shows that 25 out of the 35 aircraft lost were helicopters and 10 were fixed wing. pic.twitter.com/bK8f9y0CCo Permalink 2:10 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nitpicker nitpiked Dear @zoesqwilliams: Tks for the review. But if you want to nitpick, make sure you don’t make DISCONCERTING mistakes. 1) Learn something about vulnerability of helicopters 2) Minority rule is driven by manufacturing (bundling) 3) …https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/22/skin-in-the-game-nassim-nicholas-taleb-review?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet   Permalink 1:55 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dan Sitaru’s Inequality with a Double Integral https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/InequalityWithDoubleIntegral.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZTw5yGzaEo”>  pic.twitter.com/ZTw5yGzaEo Permalink 6:19 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@gappullback To figure out how well you will do ten years from now relative to someone else, count your enemies, count his, and square the ratio. – @nntaleb Permalink 2:20 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@robertwjordway Great podcast interview with BBC @nntaleb, clear and succinct aka no BS. Imagine if we kept a politician’s speech that short… #SkinInTheGamehttps://iono.fm/e/533487   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb London authentic squid ink pic.twitter.com/JMi2ASDDTv Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Rolling, waiting, stopping https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/WaitingForAllSix.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PAa7OGjsDa”>  pic.twitter.com/PAa7OGjsDa Permalink 9:04 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 A thread about 100 things I took from @nntaleb’s new book “skin in the game”https://twitter.com/Douglas9162/status/965961351221907456   Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 45- I am, at the fed level, Libertarian; at the state level, republican; at the local level, Democrat; at the family and friends level, a socialist. Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@byzantinepower Forces of The New Rome unite #Byzantium CC: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/dwUuhB7K9s Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, another (shortened) version… Clear enough? pic.twitter.com/vw2uqrljiz Permalink 3:03 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 Have slept on Skin in the Game by @nntaleb, here is a thread about some things I learned/liked most Permalink 3:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just hit me I have another talk at @dauntbooks at 12:30… Marylebone Permalink 2:26 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb What is it with people expecting a James Bond villain?https://twitter.com/jasonolympics/status/965694502085320704   Permalink 1:32 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@adrianomcs87 If @nntaleb’s insight is right, and if the New Testment authors took a semitic (i.e., Hebraic) notion and translated it into doxa (meaning glory) then the view that they were vulgar Platonists is wrong, since doxa as opinion is one of the most basic notions of Platonism.https://twitter.com/startupdaemon/status/964679507381833728   Permalink 2:26 PM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Announcement: I am not in Glascow on Friday. Never heard of this.https://twitter.com/fornogoodreason/status/965590985962086400   Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@KenMWolfgang Talk with @nntaleb about the evidence supporting the efficacy of the psychological arts. Then come back and tell me it’s superior to prayer.https://twitter.com/rdfrs/status/965036559794888704   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@mikeharrisNY “. However, as Sepp’s chart below shows, What happened on February 5th was well outside the norm.” Ph.D in statistics should know that certain power laws have no “norm”. Outside the norm is the usual rather than the unusual. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@benshapiro Evidence gathered from many locations over many years indicates no religious person was arguing that, you dumbass.https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/964606017513410560   Permalink 6:49 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@yvespatte Ce livre @nntaleb est une véritable arme de self-defense contre les discours de ceux qui écrivent et déterminent le monde, sans jamais mettre leur peau en jeu, sans jamais en payer les conséquences (d’où l’asymétrie) & c’est un vrai plaidoyer pour les entrepreneurs ! A lire !! pic.twitter.com/ki61lgQVLG Permalink 2:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Should we announce that Mr Van Someren @alexvans will replace me and speak in my place at @Silva’s Second Home?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/965280477480448000   Permalink 8:02 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@NateAgapi If you haven’t already, you should read Nassim’s book Antifragile. It very much is a scientific critique on many modern systems. It centers on the lack of understanding of statistics. Much of what we think of as science is really mathematical ignorance. Taleb is trying to reform. Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb After 2 years of work, our paper “Gini Estimation under Infinite Variance” with @DrCirillo & colleague was accepted by Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Applications. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1707.01370.pdf   Permalink 1:21 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb A culture of intellectual honor: NEVER fight anyone outside the limit of the specific fight of concern to you. And never dig people when they are down. Now, intellecktchuals need to learn something about honor.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/965274466761756674   Permalink 11:16 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Oh no.https://twitter.com/Cyberlibris/status/965279683460960256   Permalink 9:41 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fact that I dislike @wmarybeard & her “scholarship” does not mean I need to be concerned with her other disputes. So I will block anyone getting me involved in her other problems. Gabish? Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Same for multiplicative chains from Government Interventionhttps://twitter.com/_youhadonejob1/status/965220109278212097   Permalink 7:25 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@Lekapenos Every time NNT says Phoenicia multiple Arabists commit suicide, Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Archeology? Of course: here is a Roman temple just outside the village. pic.twitter.com/JZtBNL1wvO Permalink 6:39 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Bottargua with Araq. Last day before Orth Lent pic.twitter.com/yyVWdvzNdi Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It snowed all night in Northern Phoenicia The “White Mountain” pic.twitter.com/vF8lmcSWg6 Permalink 3:03 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My neighbor in NY is first to see a hard copy of my book (I am in Northern Phoenicia & he opened the shipment).https://twitter.com/NcojoD/status/964923003078406145   Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If it is offensive to wonks, like @CLANicholson, it is purely intentional.https://twitter.com/CLANicholson/status/964875811173142529   Permalink 6:59 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@normonics the logic doesnt seem to work for bloggers. you share what you write on a blog. the blog is the product. N is writing books and sharing the making of the sausage. Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb So, in other words, if you see, say a B-School academic with the attitude that “he is smart & had he wanted he would be richer than practitioners” explain to him that he is not an academic BY CHOICE but out of incompetence. Permalink 4:07 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @R_Thaler’s mental accounting is an interesting intellectual fraud (I mean, really charlatanism): not only he did it statically but by his own admission verbalistically. They add “mathematics” for show. https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/963590651660005377   Permalink 3:28 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@Matthew_T_Kent If these people weren’t so out of touch, they would understand that stories of Trump having affairs with Playboy models will only serve to boost his image. As @nntaleb said: If someone would rather be Trump instead of his detractor, they won’t be swayed by the character attackshttps://twitter.com/ronanfarrow/status/964456374326448128   Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally, some mystical mathematics: https://www.dropbox.com/s/s93sh2els9tj7cs/GordianProbabilityFeb16-2018.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yZQrbaLRtM”>  pic.twitter.com/yZQrbaLRtM Permalink 1:37 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@startupdaemon One dictionary I found defined original δόξα as “conjecture”, not opinion. So there isn’t so much an evolution as filling in. The most basic SITG practice consists precisely of conjecture, then (in the extreme) heroic action to “test” it or “make it become manifest”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728560682489266178   Permalink 5:54 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@vonkronstadt You’re confusing different meanings of “belief”, again NNT nails it in one tweethttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728562580583796737   Permalink 3:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb This mysterious @pseudoerasmus got the point that enlightenment != popenlightenment, Soviet-Harvardism reason!= naive rationalism, atheism, literalism scientism!= scientism sckepticism is about secular not metaphorical values. But he is wrong on Pinker Boy’s theory of violence.https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/962166440395771904   Permalink 3:05 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) THOSE WHO EAT TOGETHER BAND TOGETHER For instance since Muslims can eat Kosher food, why did they add another interdict: wine? To prevent socializing with Jews and Christians hence lower exposure to conversions. pic.twitter.com/d8w3Jgghbv Permalink 1:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Highly doubtful. This is an ad hoc “sounds good” explanation. A- 1) Kashrut came with >500 other interdicts. 2) Local neighbors (Greeks, Canaanites, pre-Islamic Arabians) had no such interdict on pork. B- Interdicts serve as religious markers. I discuss in SITG. Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nohttps://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/964595962218872832   Permalink 12:53 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb No, @NaomiAKlein should not retract. All tawk. She should go reside in Venezuela. Now. Skin in the game, @jordanbpeterson eliminates tawk.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/964538309593542657   Permalink 12:27 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic After having followed @nntaleb for many years, I now can’t look at ANY research and accompanying statistical analysis without skepticism. I’m basically seeing bullshit everywhere – it’s killing me! Permalink 9:05 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson Ms. Klein @NaomiAKlein since you haven’t retracted your very public support for the murderous totalitarians of Venezuela, it might be better if you just kept quiet…https://twitter.com/NaomiAKlein/status/964498312454918144   Permalink 8:33 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Tossing, waiting, and stopping https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoInARow.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/q5vFcWUzRv”>  pic.twitter.com/q5vFcWUzRv Permalink 7:27 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb NonProfiteers & academics who think they made a “sacrifice” underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to make money in the Real World w/o rentseeking. Authors who think they “sacrifice” by not dumbing down underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to sell a book to very wide audiences. Permalink 6:15 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@Mangan150 The replication crisis in clinical psychology: evidence that psychotherapy works is weak.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00256/full   Permalink 4:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@mikeandallie This falls into the professional math bucket and not the “math for kids” bucket that I’m usually tweeting about. This is a fascinating paper about the the amount of data you need to be able to make meaningful statements about a data set.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964452372167655425   Permalink 3:24 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) It is not just that the Leb war numbers are bogus but they come from journos who BS and cite each another (citation ring), causing an inflation in numbers. Some idiotic historian gets them into books w/1 citation. Trying to clean up war data w/@DrCirillo @ABarnardNYT Permalink 2:57 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The link is here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964450061164965888   Permalink 2:52 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally posted my paper on consequences of fat tails in observing an average (you need 10^13 more data for Pareto 80/20 than for a Gaussian). pic.twitter.com/hugGbKoGGN Permalink 2:43 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually the numbers for the Leb civil war are bogus. BTW I was there. Same as Hama 1982 climbing without reason. Chapter in Skin in the Game https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac  https://twitter.com/ABarnardNYT/status/964160904429539329   Permalink 2:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Smart actors become executives Permalink 10:42 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Random Inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RandomInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qPhmubXPrx”>  pic.twitter.com/qPhmubXPrx Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Twelve hours in Casablanca airport. Permalink 6:29 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Meet in an Elimination Tournament https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/EliminationTournament.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wjEuVUAna2″>  pic.twitter.com/wjEuVUAna2 Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the Weak Non-Ergodicity: Not only your fate will not “average out” but it will diverge over time, the opposite of what has been believed for 290 years in the stupid decision science literature.. Risk is something to be seen dynamically, not staticallt @ole_b_peters pic.twitter.com/K8Ffs5ufjZ Permalink 6:01 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@VergilDen Smart prostitutes become lobbyists Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Will @WikiTribune become a platform for Monsanto the way Wikipedia has been?https://twitter.com/TheDrum/status/964081874695049217   Permalink 3:20 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers. Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nate Silver shd not be lecktchuring anyone on probability and statistics. And “deep learning” works better than stat 101 in many domains. Dangerously better.https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/963930336618078209   Permalink 12:39 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@careygillam These Citizen-Regulators In Arkansas Defied Monsanto. Now They’re Under Attack “He doesn’t regret his vote to shut down dicamba spraying. “I put forth a good effort, to the best of my ability, to protect the citizens of Arkansas,” he says.”https://n.pr/2G0Ixkj   Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Under the fascist regime of Franco, the Basque language was banned. Well, the Lebanese language site @learn_lebanese was suspended by Twitter for no apparent reason, with no negative interaction. Twitter, is it censorship by Arabists? Please explain. Permalink 11:37 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Historical Table of drawdowns (70 years of SP500, ~17k observations), different scales, and tail exponent concerves that of returns. pic.twitter.com/4AdgbZo6TI Permalink 10:38 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those wasting time listening to journos on market “collapse”: this is normal, very normal business. Very, very normal. Markets are in STATES OF DRAWDOWN (i.e. trade below the peak) ~75% of the time, EVEN when returns are yuge (see 180 years of drawdowns by @financequant) Permalink 10:29 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@WissamYKhalil Just read this great piece from @nntaleb. After I learned Syriac I noticed this, but never have I seen such evidence. Great work! A must read for all those who categories Lebanese as Arabs.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 11:55 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lesson: Nobody us Pro-Saudi Barbaria for freehttps://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/this-pro-saudi-tory-mp-was-paid-ps15000-for-his-work-on-a   Permalink 7:11 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb La Boetie: Pour accéder à la liberté, il faut n’être ni maître ni esclave.https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/963605967920386057   Permalink 7:03 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK, my turn to signal.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/963244315890905088   Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why we started the Real World Risk Institute: education can only come from practitioners.http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-caplan-education-credentials-20180211-story.html   Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile I used Mathematica for a functional quiz pic.twitter.com/omnsCnX3kT Permalink 6:36 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile (or philostochasticity)https://twitter.com/quantamagazine/status/962948174771097600   Permalink 3:46 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lunch with maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath discussing probability riddles pic.twitter.com/1v8SEB3fEL Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@ole_b_peters This is the foundation of economics. On this page Bernoulli does NOT compute the expected net change of utility. Don’t take it from me, check for yourself and retweet when you’re convinced. Bernoulli’s 1738 paper http://bit.ly/2nShXn5   Hints on p.023103-6 http://bit.ly/2vwsp8y   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6Uh6ta2eys”>  pic.twitter.com/6Uh6ta2eys Permalink 8:17 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@MTayyabAhmed …one should learn to avoid using terms made for knowledge to describe its opposite. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan) #nassimnicholastaleb #theblackswan #quotes #nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CRElfG9OXu Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I cannot be diplomatic with harmful frauds. Sorry, but it is not my nature. I can’t stand frauds. I really can’t. Gabish? Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Before submitting to Arxiv, my paper on the law of larger numbers and statistical significance under Fat Tails, for error deteckshion. https://www.dropbox.com/s/r1yo700oeih4c87/kappa-n-3.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Btm0KXgzDV”>  pic.twitter.com/Btm0KXgzDV Permalink 7:03 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo It’s funny to read claims about changes in the number and magnitude of wars, when the average time span between two large wars is larger than the observation window used to support the claim. It’s like: since it has been raining for three days, the sun does not exist any longer! Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Very good, Joe. Descriptive statistics (i.e. without significance test), @DrCirillo and I will argue are a NO-NO with Fat tails and/or time series. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am certain Monsanto is taking over Wikipedia, @jimmy_wales. This page on the journal entropy does not mentions that many agencies consider Glyphosate likely carcinogenic, uses criticism by Monsanto shill Kevin Kloor. pic.twitter.com/hxSLCa6Cvg Permalink 4:49 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Incidentally, in spite of our plethoric explanations, @PTetlock keeps misdefining the precautionary principle as local risk management /what falls under tort laws. The Precautionary Principle is to make sure the system is there tomorrow.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/962272552256266245   Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The anti-BS vending mission is working, one mind at a time. (with permission) pic.twitter.com/1eXRe8G1Vn Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It could be associated with bull worshiping coming from Neolithic central Anatolia, traveling with the J2 haplogroups across the Med (Canaanites, Minoans, etc.) In other words, perhaps it came WITH them in Mesolithic or early Neolithic, not learned from neighbors.https://twitter.com/MayaMargit/status/962702296646848513   Permalink 10:56 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “We Are Living In A Reality Distortion” Mark Spitznagel Warns “This Is Not Over Yet” | Zero Hedgehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-10/mark-spitznagel-why-picking-market-crashes-impossible   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb FU attitude…https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/962705530803425280   Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) Actually @DrCirillo and I wrote a paper on historical wars assuming that historians are bullshitters, getting a sort of metric of robustness to bullshit by historians. https://arxiv.org/a/taleb_n_1.html   Permalink 3:13 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am not saying history is BS, only that what you find in history books is full of BS. A lot of fake news. Stop conflating History=good w/ historians=good. I am seeing that via history of wars and genetic maps. Also from bullshits by historians.https://twitter.com/San_person/status/962412576133951488   Permalink 12:16 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In fact, anyone who has taken risks professionally knows this intuitively, but verbagiastic @PTetlock and nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it. Permalink 11:32 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining both the XIV trade and why forecasting is some type of academic BS. https://youtu.be/hRwimmE2wEk   via @YouTube Permalink 10:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei Yesterday I had my last day with @nntaleb. This is my last personal report about Real World Risk Institute workshop in New York City. Enjoy! #risk #rwri #antifragile #blackswan #skininthegamehttp://bit.ly/2Eh65RE   Permalink 10:18 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you look at the court system (common law), you can see that it evolved to build a process; not hard laws but procedures designed to minimize errors of reasoning. Permalink 9:31 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And what I mean by law is common law, bottom up pic.twitter.com/g4zCJZQRyA Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why correlation is not correlationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 8:07 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you remember less crap as you age, it is largely that your filtering mechanism is getting trained.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/962350303185121280   Permalink 7:50 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything. Permalink 7:34 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) we know for sure Tabal is NOT Semitic in origin (TNBL= 4cons. not 3) also it is made into a verb in Leb. Permalink 6:22 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology Question du jour. Tanbal (“Farniente”) in Lebanese is Τεμπελιάζω in Modern Greek. Which one comes from the other, or is there a common origin?https://twitter.com/lecths/status/962321258238087168   Permalink 6:20 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb WEF staff is a bunch of BS artists concocting what feels right and sounds intelligent. Zero rigor. For instance @amonck is a fraud.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/734046282340306946   Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Rule in life: never cite/post analyses by WEF/Davos. Never.https://twitter.com/jraitamaa/status/962284005998649344   Permalink 4:57 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The pseudohistorian @mikeduncan has to be a total intellecktchual fraud: He jumped in, commenting on the Mary Beard problem without even knowing anything except that it was Mary Beard on the other side. Historians & pseudohistorians are good at fake news. Permalink 3:47 PM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The main difference between Mediterraneans and nonMeds: Farniente (doing nothing) is active for a Med. Permalink 10:53 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Which is why one should not let low-IQ state department & think tank analysts (without skin in the game) anywhere near your problem.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/961976714049015809   Permalink 6:56 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb « Jouer sa peau » et gagnant-gagnant http://la-chronique-agora.com/jouer-peau-gagnant-gagnant/   via @lcagora Permalink 6:18 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Functional Inequality from Vietnam https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/FunctionalInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #geometry ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/n9OvM4WdLF”>  pic.twitter.com/n9OvM4WdLF Permalink 6:02 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Tonight, you could feel the frustration and embarrassment growing in Congress as we exposed the hypocrisy of Republicans who are joining in an unholy alliance and spending free-for-all with Democrats at the expense of the American people and our party’s supposed principles. Permalink 10:53 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@yaneerbaryam “Monsanto manipulated science to promote pesticide glyphosate and GMOs”https://twitter.com/i/moments/961759028891324417   Permalink 4:51 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Would you voluntarily give your money to the federal government for things like this? Wasteful spending is riddled throughout government and this deal just adds to the problem. pic.twitter.com/dMIk8cNR9u Permalink 3:30 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@trishankkarthik Really insightful observation by @nntaleb at #RWRI7 “Although the [cybersecurity] events involve multiple Gaussian points of failure, the dollars involved are power law distributed.” Permalink 2:17 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@_NicT_ Today at #RWRI @nntaleb described a third regime in between mediocristan and extremistan, notable for memoryless exposures over time. Hey Nassim you should call this one ‘persististan’. Permalink 12:50 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic The Real World Risk Seminar is like being at a 5-day banquet. If u havent been yet, plse consider attending.The knowledge gained is immense Permalink 9:44 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@CllrBSilvester During 2nd World War many Brits went to fight with French Resistance against the Nazis. When they came back, if they did, they were treated like heroes They weren’t thrown in prison This Tory Gov has totally left leave of its senses. Most people can’t believe they have done thishttps://twitter.com/CllrBSilvester/status/961563915024044032   Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei So much to tell, too much to tell! #RWRI Day 3: my experience report. @avanscoperta! We will need 34 meetup! :-D #complexity #iyi #risk #cravattato http://bit.ly/2GXSaBB   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iB9dSMWPzw”>  pic.twitter.com/iB9dSMWPzw Permalink 12:30 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@ayltoncf Maybe @nntaleb would like this one.https://twitter.com/downunderabc123/status/961194569231560704   Permalink 3:47 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb REWRI (Real World Risk Seminar), @trishankkarthik presenting P/NP and predictability, comments on GMOs. pic.twitter.com/5TI9hgOr4v Permalink 12:51 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@Spfannenschmidt In light of @nntaleb’s #RWRI 1) rules for optimizing group vs individual characteristics should differ 2) some of the trees in your random decision forest should be paranoid and overreacthttps://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/960254800179945473   Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A correction is in order pic.twitter.com/hqeZO4JUqi Permalink 8:18 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Difference with Pinker boy (@sapinker): + No US book tour (1 lecktchur in NY) + No copies sent to journos (they can buy it themselves) and mostly +No BShttps://twitter.com/sapinker/status/960616039582240768   Permalink 7:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Non, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabeNon, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabe”https://medium.com/p/non-le-libanais-nest-pas-un-dialecte-arabenon-le-libanais-n-est-pas-un-dialecte-arabe-844fb8dda2f2   Permalink 6:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Always apologize except when did something wrong. (Bed of Procrustes) Permalink 6:14 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Apologies are just words. You want them to ALSO lose their own money. Nomura “Sincerely Apologizes” For Blowing Up Investors With Its VIX-Linked ETN | Zero Hedgehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-07/nomura-sincerely-apologizes-blowing-investors-its-vix-linked-etn   Permalink 5:50 AM – 7 Feb 2018

BS Vendors, Dostoyevsky, Auguste Comte, Nobel Foundation, Bill Gates, GMOs, Penrose – The Road To Reality,

Typical initial resistance on the part of Israel/Iran in realizing they will end up fighting on the same side. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/692701879801888768
5:46 AM – 28 Jan 2016

7) Saw in a flash why to get “honest” function for fattailed CDF you needed alpha exponent in N but not Fourier tr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_distribution
2:09 AM – 28 Jan 2016

My explanation of the flaw of “averaging” under nonlinear responses and why much of psychology doesn’t generalize.
1:31 AM – 28 Jan 2016

2/2 The problem is deeper than local averaging: The response by Dawkins clique to Nowak’s math was journalistic. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/richard-dawkins-labelled-journalist-by-eo-wilson
1:28 AM – 28 Jan 2016

The “Selfish Gene” has been debunked by Wilson/Nowak, & Bar Yam. Links to “averaging” in complex syst #Antifragile https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/692552661598601216
1:06 AM – 28 Jan 2016

I meant #skininthegame only learn from those who do what they teach. Ignore others @jsqfunk
4:53 PM – 27 Jan 2016

6b)Penrose made me finally get why I fail to “invent” a powerlaw in R without “patches”.Shd focus on Complex:Fourier
4:47 PM – 27 Jan 2016

6a) His discussion of Euler proper “smooth” function in Re domain vs analyticity in complex=>why no real function on R for fattailed distr
4:43 PM – 27 Jan 2016

To learn, learn from those who do it.
3:20 PM – 27 Jan 2016

5) He ties together stuff that we never put together. Sometimes just a hint leads to a flash. What is natural/rational number before quarks?
11:47 AM – 27 Jan 2016

4) Just reread first 7 chapters on plane to India.
+discovery of math techniques (complex analysis, Log) led to uncovering of the physical
11:45 AM – 27 Jan 2016

best quote re Davos @nntaleb “The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping.”Going to needlepoint it. https://twitter.com/TheMediaTweets/status/691990013601566721
9:48 AM – 27 Jan 2016

.@kennethminoo The idea is the inverse problem. Imagine yourself having to produce the math that explains reality, no less no more.
4:24 PM – 26 Jan 2016

The English approach math a la Newton: less formalisn more coherence @OussamaENNAFII
4:06 PM – 26 Jan 2016

3) TRTR shows the exact interplay between math and physical reality. It works like magic. Think of complex analysis=>quantum` probability!!!
3:33 PM – 26 Jan 2016

2) Before TRTR viewed the world into: Von Neumann vs Feynman. For VN, a physical was a term in equation. For RF, math could be masturbation.
3:31 PM – 26 Jan 2016

1) Penrose’s TRTR convinced me that it takes 10 years to properly real a real book.
3:27 PM – 26 Jan 2016

Friends, Let’s start a twitter symposium on Penrose’s monumental TRTR (after 10y of reading it). #lindyeffect
3:08 PM – 26 Jan 2016

Someone needs to (gently & patiently) explain to Bill Gates that in real life you can’t reboot to solve a crash. https://twitter.com/GMOInside/status/691563805940256768
3:01 PM – 26 Jan 2016

Syllabus of my course at NYU-Tandon @nyupoly: 7 Introductory lectures on Extreme Risk Analytics. pic.twitter.com/NBpX8JRfEu
6:49 AM – 26 Jan 2016

It is a myth that markets are there for the discovery of “the” price.(Facebook)  Markets are there so we can keep changing opinion about the price.
In addition, for those who believe in the “wisdom of crowds”, looks like the idea is debunked by the minority rule.


Every century brings the fool (Facebook) who declares that “violence is steadily declining” and that we live in “unparalleled” period of peace (40 years without conflict). And, needless to say, attributes it to some type of progress. This was from H.T. Buckle circa 1857. I was shocked to find Pinker’s words… verbatim. It was not just Pinker’s reasoning, but his words.

The great F. Dostoyevsky debunked it in “Notes from an underground” (enclosed).

A common theme of “positivist-rationalists-scientistic” (that is, promoters of scientism) to believe in “end of”, new man, new society, new something, etc. Just as the “new atheists” believe that if we remove religion and replaced with something they mislabel as “science”, things wouldn’t blow up the planet. Now, looking for some quotes from Auguste Comte who, thanks to his magisterial multi-volume project, “Cours de Philosophy Positive” gave respectability to this turkey problem.
1) Dostoyevsky, as an author, had skin in the game. He faced his own execution: he was condemned to death penalty, faced the execution squad, and was reprieved last minute. See in The Idiot the discussion of how a man faces what he think is his last hours of life, promising himself to enjoy every minute of like in the same manner if case he miraculously survives… and forgetting it upon the miraculous survival. Much more on him, later.

2) The Nobel Foundation gave me a fellowhip to go study the statistical properties of violence in Oslo. So I will get deeper into this turkey problem and its sucker narrative.

3) Thanking Daniel Obloja.

When people get rich (Facebook), they lose control of their preferences, substituting constructed preferences to their own, triggering their own misery. And these are the preferences of those who want to sell them something (a skin-in-the-game problem as their choices are dictated by others who have something to gain, and no side effects, from the sale).

I’ve mentioned here the following anecdote. I once had dinner in a Michelin-starred restaurant with a fellow who insisted on eating there instead of my selection of a casual Greek place. People in the restaurant were of the very constipated style, that kind of atmosphere. Dinner consisted in a succession of complicated small things. It felt like work. I left the place starving. Now if I had a choice I would have had some time-tested recipe (say a pizza with fresh ingredients, or a juicy hamburger) in a lively place –for a tenth of the price. But because the fellow could afford the expensive restaurant, we ended up the victims of some complicated experiments by a chef judged by some Michelin bureaucrat (one that would fail the Lindy effect, instead of eating some minute local variation around a progress through Sicilian grandmothers).

(Footnote: Hamburgers are tastier than filet mignon, because of the higher fat content, but people have been convinced that the latter is better because it is more expensive to produce).

The same with real estate. Most people, I am convinced, are happier in close quarters, in a real barrio-style neighborhood, where they can feel human warmth, but when they have big bucks they end up pressured to move into a humongous impersonal and silent mansions, far away from the neighbors. Not counting the fact that their house will be professionally managed like a corporation.

I am saying this because, with the passage of time, I am more and more convinced that very few people understand their own choices, and end up being manipulated by those who want to sell them something. Looking at Saudi Arabia which should progressively revert to the pre-oil level of poverty, I wonder if taking away some things from them will make them better off.

A part man-part animal (Facebook) is vastly more horrifying than a full wild animal. Extremely eerie are monsters who look like humans with small differences.

The uncanny resides in the resemblance, not the difference.

So I finally figured out why I am gripped with so much revulsion at BS vendors dressed in the garb of high priest of scientists, intellectuals, or logicians, (say Pinker or Shermer or Harris or some scientist under Monsanto’s control), to the point of total maddening anger, and why I do not experience any disgust when I see a fortune teller, a market commentator, or some new age meditation guru such as Deepak Chopra.

FRIDAY QUIZ.(Facebook)
“People of high intelligence are ethical. We find fewer intelligent people among criminals.”
Spot the nonsense in the sentence.

When I was a quant-trader (Facebook), my trading colleagues talked about books, ideas, and quants talked about probability and mathematics. Now that I am in the “ideas” profession, my academic colleagues discuss office space, and my writing colleagues talk about book agents, speakers bureaus and copyrights. Professional mathematicians talk about grants and amateur ones about Godel.