Tag Archives: Alexander Bogomolny

TECHNICAL INCERTO, Dawkins, Haass, Friedman, Zakaria, Alexander Bogomolny, GMOs, Ron Paul, Soccer | Twitter

@financequant “I believe that we should read only those books that wound and stab us. If a book we are reading does not rouse us with a blow to the head, then why read it? A book must be the axe for the frozen sea inside us.”–Franz Kafka Permalink 2:43 PM – 20 Jul 2018

@NebojsaMalic You BOMBED Montenegro in 1999 as commander of NATO, you nitwit. https://twitter.com/GeneralClark/status/1019605472205295616   Permalink 10:43 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This time on ….phenomenology! The cartoonist is good but doesn’t get that weightlifters are NOT thin in the waist. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1020291741994430466   Permalink 6:57 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Since I am typesetting, we have aesthetic questions. Is the format I use for my own books OK? Or fixing the Maestro’s own original fonts? https://www.dropbox.com/s/hslpj8xcqtszmvv/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%202.pdf?dl=0   Please let me know. Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) (Ppple involved: @MarcosCarreira @gcfr20 @mikeandallie @octonion @SvetlanaBogom13 ) My feeling is: we do not need to complete many tutorial appendices since these are standard: pple find them on the web just as they did to solve pblms. (for instance I don’t use one for mine) Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) BOGOMOLNY FRIDAY SYMPOSIUM Alex left us 13 days ago. I have the PDF of the @CutTheKnotMath’s book Probability Riddles; working on completing it posthumously. Need comments on these sections (pics). https://www.dropbox.com/s/wcme0ib93t4bozn/Probability_Riddles.pdf?dl=0   @republicofmath @ProbFact @octonion @erugli ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/S40ItFJMxi”>  pic.twitter.com/S40ItFJMxi Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yarmouk is where the Byzantines lost the battle to the Arabs 13C ago. The new Byzantium has some work to do. https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/1020142300180213760   Permalink 8:43 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He came to talk population genetics/probability. I took him to the gym instead and forced him to deadlift. He had never done it before. He is very confused about the visit. https://twitter.com/pzalloua/status/1020068134886232065   Permalink 3:51 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Never ever criticize anyone (say a politician) for doing something that you would be silent about if someone else did it. You would be insulting your audience, insulting truth, insulting the medium you are using, insulting ethics. Permalink 11:38 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved… https://twitter.com/roguishwisdom/status/1020001246248341504   Permalink 11:03 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yes the seeds of skin in the game in 2002: never read anything on doing by nondoers. https://twitter.com/mc_macro/status/1019973430601322498   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So the TECHNICAL INCERTO is online: VOL1- The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails https://www.dropbox.com/s/bq2lhmoo9v686ap/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%201.pdf?dl=0   VOL2- Convexity, Risk, and Fragility (in progress) https://www.dropbox.com/s/hslpj8xcqtszmvv/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%202.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ee2wQ07MVV”>  pic.twitter.com/ee2wQ07MVV Permalink 7:01 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Congrats to @BakhtadzeMamuka for becoming Prime Minister of Georgia, and indeed, let Georgia, the root of Europe and the Mediterranean (i.e. Western Eurasia), become part of modern-day Europe via cultural and economic integration. https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1019916527959707648   Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb My point is: That highly unrigorous science journalist @RichardDawkins can say “Listen I would like to preserve my culture” without insulting other people’s aesthetics. Permalink 5:35 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Note: This is not for my benefit but a public service warning –since I will never set foot there. (Nor was I financially hurt since I was the guest at a business dinner.) Permalink 7:08 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I spent my childhood in the Christian neighborhood in Beirut listening to both the bells (older churches than Dawkins’) and the muezzin in the distance. It taught me that tolerance is when you get that: The Other likes the aesthetics of his rituals as much as you do yours. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1018933359978909696   Permalink 6:54 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Is it against NYC law to refuse to serve tap water? (Some pple have a rule to never drink nonlocal water) Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Nusr-Et in NY. Never ever again. They don’t even serve local tap water. Overrrrrrrrrrpriced. pic.twitter.com/oBCmFEiQbV Permalink 4:21 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@JeanMessiha En Algérie, des femmes bravent l’obscurantisme avec la modernité du bikini ; en France, des femmes bravent la modernité avec l’obscurantisme du burkini… https://observalgerie.com/actualite-algerie/societe/ces-algeriennes-qui-simposent-en-bikini/   Permalink 11:51 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This is hilarious. Every time someone (of the type to live with their mother at age 52) tells me that “Trump is dumb”… https://twitter.com/Viatcheslavsos3/status/1019631566522322944   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@DaxThoughts Nothing makes me (1) feel worse about myself (2) want to learn a ton of information NOW, Than reading @nntaleb’s papers It’s an extremely humbling process. Permalink 4:18 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And they are still not getting why this “evidence” is pseudoscience. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/health/psychology-studies-stanford-prison.html   Permalink 4:12 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The thread explains why most of the papers with “empirical evidence” using “correlations” and “p-values” are BS. Actually, in some fields, almost all papers are BS but you need to look deep into the statistics. The p-value hacking paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1019229442609221632   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2018

@CeddChad Courtesans and Fishcakes opened my eyes to Med culture and how we Northerners are so different. Yours has been the only reference I have ever seen to it. Permalink 11:34 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Journos thrive on wars and tensions (like the press magnate in the Bond movie who fomented wars to sell papers) (Asymmetric payoff: they don’t bear the costs, particularly if harm is in foreign countries) Regular citizens don’t care about geopolitics. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 11:06 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And prosperity is best achieved by preventing bureaucrats from interfering with things they will never understand. Permalink 9:50 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that the job of the government is to deliver Peace and Prosperity. Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@marcus_minus Espèce de charlatan incompétent… je vous invite à lire @nntaleb avant de dire de tels conneries. Et dire que nous avons des cancres comme vs pour parler de transhumanisme, d’OGM et d’investissement d’avenir. #charlatan Permalink 7:00 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Based on the reactions, the definition of a “dictator with divergent values” is someone who does not buy weapons from U.S. based arms manufacturers. Permalink 8:06 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@daniel_bilar Pre-asymptotics & fat tails: Operational & heuristic metrics to compare n-summed independent vars under all distributions w finite first moment by @nntaleb http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   [“how much data one needs to make meaningful statements”, ‘speed’ of the law of large numbers] ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cZ3SroVpec”>  pic.twitter.com/cZ3SroVpec Permalink 5:39 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 This is getting ridiculous. What a day. Share values ? I didn’t see you complaining when he sword danced in #Saudi https://twitter.com/newshour/status/1018990464676970496   Permalink 3:59 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It took 5 volumes to get the main point: “The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty about what one should do about it.” pic.twitter.com/XodgKD7QrV Permalink 1:53 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One is allowed to reveal the low IQ of these pseudo-experts s.a. @RichardHaass, @tomfriedman or @FareedZakaria is because, while clueless abt complex interactions & basic properties, they feel empowered to lecture others on what to do. They shd driving Ubers not more. Permalink 12:01 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Actually excellent partying as preliminary preparation to the theorezing. pic.twitter.com/mdR0oQNFPC Permalink 11:49 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The main problem that plague GMO idiots is that they don’t get that 1) interractions in an environment are not predictable 2) that they NEED to be predicted (no organism is isolated) https://twitter.com/freud_fjell/status/1018919146044747776   Permalink 11:07 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Surprised? https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1018873225206525952   Permalink 10:23 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Promoting the ideas of Jane Jacobs (and her books) on organic urbanism —with Minister @HardeepSPuri in charge of building tens of millions of homes in the next 5 years. pic.twitter.com/gV6YwcvhHs Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb To have a real “deep state” you need the intelligence of a Professor Moriarty or the craftiness of a Colbert. Not a collection of hand-to-mouth bureaucrats. Gabish? Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One lesson from recent militarism: 1- There may exist ~a “deep state”, but it isn’t organized, rather a spontaneous league of useful idiots 2- The most representative is that *low-IQ BS Vendor*, @RichardHaass, so you can see it’s composed of real losers https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1018245342989516805   Permalink 6:16 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Like Saudi Arabia. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1018815528704593920   Permalink 5:00 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends; now the question is whether to use Roman or “Arabic” (Indian) numerals. pic.twitter.com/ncLcWlJYWi Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@Jaffer22915438 One last tweet before I do something more useful. Flashback to when right wingnuts called Reagan a “Useful Idiot” for meeting with Soviet Union…today, Democrats assuming posture: http://articles.latimes.com/1987-12-05/news/mn-6395_1_president-reagan   Permalink 4:19 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Needs to be random. Like IRS audits. https://twitter.com/stianchrister/status/1018585629230170113   Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Make sure your income does not depend on your reputation. 2) Find 4-5 perpetrators and hound them for the rest of their life. Particularly 4 years later when they expect it the least. 3) Let others see what you are doing to the few smearers. Example http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/Once_there_was_/status/1018547404931362817   Permalink 12:53 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In the past, the weapons industry would have right wing warmongers shill for them & perpetuate states of bellicosity. They got smarter. They now enlist shills who managed to label themselves on the “left”. Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) And no, @elonmusk/@Tesla are not fully antifragile: they depends on shareholders, which is the reason smear campaigns are active. They are directed at the shareholders. But they can show evidence of smear campaign (there is) using my Tesla/NonTesla test. Permalink 7:55 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The principle in Fooled by Randomness is that we react to 1st order; we are manipulated into seeing events separated from statistical context. For instance: my discipline every time I hear Trump did smthing cruel (e.g. children) to check if NonTrump did same. (Obama did). Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Thread: @ElonMusk, victim of a smear campaign. + @Tesla car catches fire. Nobody reports on >150K yearly nonTesla cars fires? + Musk took public $, not great (returned). How about OTHER companies that got pub. $$? + Musk “is a billionaire”. How abt other billionaires? https://twitter.com/web/status/1018503499091464192   Permalink 7:46 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb cc:@HardeepSPuri https://twitter.com/Jimmy_Rosen/status/1018495695815434241   Permalink 7:15 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 6) Diplomats and politicians with no SITG cause more trouble than they solve with things like Israel/Palestine and Syria. Taleb thinks that people with SITG care more about having good food, drink, and weather at their family parties than geopolitics or grand principles: no SITG Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 1) Recently finished @nntaleb’s Skin in the Game. Like others (@naval) who have had their worldviews shifted by Taleb’s writings on probability, randomness, and society in general, SITG changed how I think about numerous parts of the economy and society. Some takeaways: Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 14 problems coming from the misunderstanding of fat tails by professional statisticians/quants/economists etc. pic.twitter.com/rIFZf89r9i Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One of the last pictures of Maestro, birdwatching (courtesy: his niece). pic.twitter.com/3ym2Jm3QlH Permalink 6:18 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb SUMMARY OF THE BOOK A statistician: Of course we understand fat tails. The author: No you don’t. pic.twitter.com/YqbSvulpfd Permalink 2:42 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INTERDICTS A passage in The Black Swan about how grandmother elephants have authority… A senator is literally an aged person… pic.twitter.com/B7nnQDzK0M Permalink 10:34 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking pple who nitpick aphorisms as if they were literal scientific claims; some call them “gross generalization”; some even complain that there is no backup… Since I’ve been doing it, the quality of my feed/discussions improved considerably. #ViaNegativa https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1018178698242117639   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So for the nomenclatura, ageism is not bigotry (check w/intellectual fraudster @NickCohen4). Aside from selective bigoteering, they haven’t yet discovered that respect for the elder if shared by practically every civilization (Meds, Semites, Chinese,…) for #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/1017842202263916549   Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters This problem dedicated to the Memory of our friend Alexander Bogomolny. @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math pic.twitter.com/pFepfWfNDb Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb What identity activists & the Stalinist pol police are doing to us is making us see someone as “person from race/gender/orientation (X,Y,Z)” instead of just seeing “Joe”, “Wang”or “Cunégonde”. Nothing short of alienation. #AbstractUniversalism is the arch-enemy of humanism. Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Jul 2018

@Mehdi_IR_DC It’s so funny to see “progressive” ppl being offended by Trump “disrespecting” the Queen; the very person who believes she is superior than the rest cuz of her blood. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The “Black” Kazars the “Northern” Kazars? Avoid confusion. For discussion: @peterfrankopan @GhassanDahhan https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1017815603778867201   Permalink 10:14 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Question: Is there a reason I did not lose followers? Is the process still going? Permalink 6:40 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For Christmas, a formal edition of the INCERTO (gold leaf etc.). Now 5 volumes. Now working on the (so far) 2 volumes of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. pic.twitter.com/KFUzHPl0Qa Permalink 6:11 AM – 12 Jul 2018

@nntaleb While the business of historians is faithful description of the past, @peterfrankopan specializes in faithful descriptions of the future. https://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/1017106103811919872   Permalink 1:44 PM – 11 Jul 2018

@RonPaul *Special Announcement* Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) To Speak At Ron Paul Institute Conference 2018!! pic.twitter.com/PQmzJRmj6e Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@SS_strength “My understanding of this concept has improved, thanks to my friend Nassim Nicholas Taleb, so I thought I’d share it with you.” https://startingstrength.com/article/the-phenomenology-of-barbell-training   Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Oh my Baal! Chased my Monsanto! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1017074409838927880   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@black_swan_man Page 5… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture #grassfed pic.twitter.com/eaQL6sx4Yg Permalink 8:53 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it. Permalink 5:45 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@mikeandallie (2/4) It is memorable not just for being a good problem but also for illustrating the amazing interaction between Bogomolny and Nassim Taleb. Taleb’s approach always got to the heart of the puzzle quickly and showed me how to share seemingly very advanced problems with kids. pic.twitter.com/csAYIcSXFF Permalink 4:37 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@ClintEhrlich 1st time one reads @nntaleb: Geez, this guy is a dick. So f-ing arrogant! 2nd time: Ok, he’s right. But why does he have to be so rude about it? 3rd time: Taleb is a true gentleman. He makes all the right enemies. https://twitter.com/anandk_00/status/1016694279824031744   Permalink 5:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Something abt Maestro Bogomolny’s @CutTheKnotMath mathematical purity I can now reveal. He had a hearing pblm (0% in ear, ~ in oth.) not remediable using aids. He left academia as he couldn’t communicate. He did math for math, not as a career. He wanted his site to make no $. Permalink 3:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@Steveonomics My favorite LinkedIn comment regarding @SouthwestAir banning peanuts. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/bYx2vQvdGj Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Whole Book in PRogress https://www.dropbox.com/s/x15o6padci0bwgi/Collected.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 2:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb LIMIT DISTRIBUTIONS, a Tutorial (Chapter in the Technical INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/gyJAQ1g6un Permalink 2:15 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@TheLikevillePod @nntaleb talks with the @TheLikevillePod about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, how intellectual-yet-idiots get us into trouble, and much else. https://overcast.fm/+MApFBBGos   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2EBrLwHsAI”>  pic.twitter.com/2EBrLwHsAI Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Excellent response. Doers and Risk Takers >>>Tawkers. Period. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016731812159254529   Permalink 10:46 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In Russian, competitor is конкурент (as in French “concurrent”, Italian “concorrente” cc: @mathieuhelie ), a co-runner. There is no implication of antagonism. You need a “concurrent” because you do not engage in a race against yourself. Permalink 8:25 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@anandk_00 1st time one reads Taleb: it sounds true. 2nd time: one starts being aware of the concepts in operation in ones life, and in general, the world. 3rd time: one wonders how did he/she not get the beauty in the 1st reading itself. Permalink 7:43 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1016675211729670146   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@ThomasSowell “There is much discussion of the haves and the have-nots, but very little discussion of the doers and the do-nots, those who contribute and those who merely take.” Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters @CutTheKnotMath Alexander, I know that you are up there in heaven and I hear there is a wifi connection set up there. So you should be able to tweet your #Math problems to us. We’re getting desperate down here. @nntaleb Permalink 4:13 PM – 9 Jul 2018

@diomavro I can honestly say I’ve learned more about probability and recursion from Alexander than the accumulation of all my university classes. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1015928573411119104   Permalink 5:45 AM – 9 Jul 2018

@GWeynerowski @Likeville hits it out of the park again. This is another fascinating, entertaining conversation led by @john_f_hamer that will make you see the world anew. And as for you, @nntaleb, quit blowing my mind! https://twitter.com/TheLikevillePod/status/1016100679583174657   Permalink 4:55 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb If someone wants a ride w/me, pls mention. I am leaving from Westchester. Permalink 2:18 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb From the family: All meet at Floral Park Cemetery at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow 7/9/2018, 104 Deans Rhode Hall Road, Monmouth Junction, NJ 08852. Tel 732-297-2336. Then ” everyone is welcome in our house afterwards […], East Brunswick, NJ” Permalink 2:15 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 6) The Anachronistic Fallacy, 2 You cannot flow today’s rules of morality backward in time & judge people THEN based on rules developed later. Morality comes from customs (mores). No law should be retroactive, something the bigoteers don’t get. Permalink 9:56 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Had the fellow applied this formidable cunning & astuteness to business he would have been montrously successful. https://nyti.ms/2KFCcOh   Permalink 8:51 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Soccer is fundamentally a high variance game. https://twitter.com/Mehdi_IR_DC/status/1013792319550705665   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 5) THE ANACHRONISTIC FALLACY Injustice was done in the past with invasions, etc. But justice cannot operate without STATUTES of LIMITATIONS: we can’t invoke the Pilgrims, w/o going back to Bronze Age migrations. Arguments abt who did what >100 y ago are necessarily invalid. Permalink 5:32 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) Immigration requires sacrifice and skin in the game. pic.twitter.com/djbetZXJBP Permalink 5:15 AM – 2 Jul 2018

Harris, Shermer, Reviews, SKIN IN THE GAME, John Gray, Gini Estimation, Nate Silver, Alexander Bogomolny, Tetlock, Thaler | Twitter

@nntaleb Squid Ink pic.twitter.com/gmv3tadPcm Permalink 4:46 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) For some background, BS Vendor Sam Harris called me “insufferable”, then tried to make friends, then called me “insufferable” again after I refused (I am intolerant of BS). Permalink 2:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@BogeJan Calling @nntaleb arrogant because he calls you out on your BS is complete f-ing horseshit. He is extremely friendly and down to earth. He took the time to chat with me, a random fan, for a long time while he was visiting Norway, and even paid for my lunch! Opposite of arrogant! Permalink 2:17 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Gabish is the recreated pronounciation of Siculo-Galabrez (Calabrese); the “p” used to sound like a “b” and the “g” like a Semitic kof, a hard K, from Punic. Much like capicoli is “gabagool”. Gabish? Permalink 1:48 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb When I see fraud I say fraud. When I see BS I shout BS. NO intimidation, no smear campaign, no mobbing by fraudsters like Shermer, Harris et al. will make me stop. The more RISK I take for my opinions, the more HONORABLE I feel. #SkinintheGame. Gabish?https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/967825791416385536   Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just to insist that those Arabists who say that there was no such thing as Phoenicia as a placename are also probably not aware of the existence of such things as ancient authors. Permalink 11:56 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Pliny’s Natural History called the Levant strip “The Phoenician Sea”. Arabs later called the Med بحر الروم but like the “Persian” Gulf (=>”Arabian”) the name got redacted from texts. Brilliant idea @BellesLettresEd: superposed not juxtaposed bilingual txts pic.twitter.com/xrFwQMYOUu Permalink 11:45 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@SindreSN As a person working in credit risk management I could easily just look at @nntaleb’s books as insulting. But «insults» that are well argued for, thought through and accompanied by real life examples are the most valuable input I can get.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/967784283174817793   Permalink 9:38 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “The Controversy around Skin in the Game”https://medium.com/p/the-controversy-around-skin-in-the-game-6d46416ee47f   Permalink 8:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Phil Coggan @econbuttonwood is thoughtful but didn’t realize my style has… not changed from when my message was better for him. I have always been iconoclastic –except my target is now journos. pic.twitter.com/QspWMY5qmi Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually, I just read the review line by line. Idiot-Shermer cherry-picks because the article continues: “All this is a shame, because the first, submerged Mr Taleb is still audible, and still has interesting things to say. ” Permalink 7:16 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb To explain it in my terms: the selfish gene is NOT necessarily ergodic (in practice will almost never be). Group selection is. Permalink 6:49 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb E.O. Wilson calls Dawkins a journalist, particularly after the reaction to the @DrMANowak paper: Dawkins & Pinker ignored the math. Shermer is a BS vendor; he doesn’t know science is based on rigor & statistical significance not multiplication of anecdotal descriptive graphs. Permalink 6:43 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The lost boarding pass. An old question but with an upcoming follow-up https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/LostPass.shtml   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/C7QokxE7AN”>  pic.twitter.com/C7QokxE7AN Permalink 5:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We can even track Roman genes in England … from US populations. Very exciting times for data scientists. pic.twitter.com/q7yDIUChd6 Permalink 5:07 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb You will notice that Phoenicians (mainly J2a) are not “Semitic”. Languages follow minority rules. Needs to add some Natufians as they may not all be haplo E. Permalink 5:04 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Science, History, Culture, & (soon) probability at their best: rigorous tracking of ancient populations through genes. Dates will change as many are sequencing individuals from archeological sites. Will be improved with inf. theory/probabilistic methods Here IJ haplogroups pic.twitter.com/7Q0Egn4E0k Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In all fairness, @johngapper agrees mainly with the point and find the book entertaining (adding this), but I could not resist playing with his “flaw” Permalink 4:02 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And Zoe Williams, @zoesqwilliams should not put on public display a deficit in reading comprehension. pic.twitter.com/DHqxailG0u Permalink 3:48 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Starting here a thread putting some skin in the game of journos reviewing Skin in the Game. We start with @johngapper at the @FT. pic.twitter.com/vNDnyOcGtX Permalink 3:31 AM – 25 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I was polite I did not call them more accurately BS vendors. Gabish, @michaelshermer?https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/967584346319216640   Permalink 6:54 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson These are very much the points I was trying to make (with some success) when I spoke twice with @samharrisorg : @nntalebhttps://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 5:19 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Project Syndicate @ProSyn confirms they removed Henry Miller’s @henryImiller articles from their site. Permalink 1:25 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the curse of dimensionality (and why it makes errors grow rapidly, hence impossible to see high dimensional effects even from known causes) #GMOs #DelendaMonsanto pic.twitter.com/ZQAPgIM3ri Permalink 1:15 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the answer @CutTheKnotMath : As we add dimensions, something counterintuitive: the “half” space shrinks to …ZERO. This is the curse of dimensionality behind p!=np we used with GMO idiots.https://twitter.com/MarcosCarreira/status/967499284609490946   Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese traditional peasant dress. East Med., even Balkan.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/967487879940362240   Permalink 12:20 PM – 24 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel If I only had 2 minutes to capture the essence of @nntaleb’s Skin In The Game, it would be this clip, especially the end, when the lawyer goes to drink the water. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGX4nMrnxg0   #SkinInTheGame Permalink 11:19 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb By the way our argument (counter to what Monsanto shiils are claiming) is not against insulin GM and things “in the box” with low-dimensionality/known effects. Permalink 10:56 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is the link to the lecktchurhttps://twitter.com/BNUnionSquareNY/status/967463517044510720   Permalink 10:50 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am retweeting this gem from @cutheknotmath because: as you go into higher dimensions, things happen… It explains our dimensionality argument againt ignorant GMO proponents and their unrigorous “science”.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/967391308963819520   Permalink 8:46 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear @HooverInst, can you please explain why you have taken no disciplinary action about @henryImiller’s case of scientific fraud? Should I take it up higher with @Stanford U.? Please let me know (as you know I will not give up.) cc: @EconTalker @nfergus Permalink 7:57 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 6) On the other hand, we can use science to debunk bogus historical claims using genetics and probabilistic methods. Permalink 5:15 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) The graph from Skin in the Game. This explains why people like charlatan Sam Harris BSing make “scientific” claims that are not covered by science. pic.twitter.com/1ic721A5TB Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I see the reason Matthew Syed @matthewsyed did not feel hostile towards Skin in the Game and yours truly: He was a doer become writing about things. Also, he may have some understanding of Shiism and minorities. Permalink 3:52 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The TIMES has a real review, first one in which the journalist doesn’t try to take revenge against author for dissing his profession.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/review-skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-down-with-the-intellectual-idiots-f2hp5gvd3   Permalink 2:42 AM – 24 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Omission is not symmetric to commission in the real world; only in pseudophilosophical parables. Permalink 3:04 PM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams is finally discovering that Skin in the Game means you can’t write a BS book review without SITG; don’t be surprised that the author is now capable of making you personally pay for it –and for a lonnnnnnnnng time.https://twitter.com/zoesqwilliams/status/966622916065587201   Permalink 11:20 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The author of the article (cc: @econbuttonwood ) didn’t get that SKIN IN THE GAME => if you are IN FAVOR of any such intervention (Lybia), you need to go live there in case it fails or pay SOME penalty. Via Negativa is Not symmetric. Journos have a tough time with clear concepts.https://twitter.com/BisayaFilms/status/967084583098376193   Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My New York book Lecktchur. The only lecktchur in the US. pic.twitter.com/Z4t4FV8Otg Permalink 9:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb That’s pure BS. BS. Jesus would have looked like some Southern European or a Turk, not a “Middle Eastern” https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4   Genetic evidence w/@PZallouahttps://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/967067244462133250   Permalink 8:10 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @DToshkov this is just redoing what @DrCirillo and I did. It wasn’t needed & has no scientific innovation (in creating estimators & historiographical tools). But it does confirms that @sapinker is a bullshitter.https://twitter.com/DToshkov/status/967023211966853121   Permalink 5:16 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) Progress, like evolution, must be neither too slow nor too fast. Too slow means extinction from lack of adaptation. Too fast prevents retaining the benefits of past improvements, hence, again, extinction. Permalink 4:12 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) Let me rephrase for the slow at getting it. If you do not treat Tradition as (high dimensional) “experience”, you stand against science and statistical significance –the spine of experimental science. What has worked 10^10 times >>> some psych paper with 60% repl. error Permalink 3:42 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My section on rationality vs BS vending in Skin in the Gamehttps://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 2:59 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “Science and reason is the best we have” is a statement that is both pseudoscientific & irrational. It conflates science and scientism. Science is rigorous, makes no claims outside a v. narrow domain. “Tradition, risk management, and Skin in the Game is the best we have”. Permalink 2:57 AM – 23 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Someone said the debate was @sapinker Pinker against me. I am done after the statstcs part. Closed. The debate (if any) is non-erudite Pinker against uber-erudite John Gray. Permalink 3:01 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb John Gray is the GIANT.https://twitter.com/JasonCowleyNS/status/966658224484225024   Permalink 2:12 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Markov Chain approach pic.twitter.com/RYVxzpxr6h Permalink 2:10 PM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Expectation of the Largest Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ExpectationOfMaximum.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zM2T8rePxK”>  pic.twitter.com/zM2T8rePxK Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams conflates skin in the game & incentives. Skin in the game is ABOUT downside risk. “chief executives and shareholders who want values maximised – people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” Got it backwards! Pitiful. Permalink 8:04 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Ms @zoesqwilliams also conflates skin in the game with conflict of interest (“mothers of murdered children”). How can one be so ignorant? A strange density of egregious mistakes per line in a book review… Permalink 6:24 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you are observing (Greek) Orthodox Lent, (vegan except for, strangely, crustaceous), something easy in Med/an olive oil country, & you find yourself traveling in a butter country where everything has dairy products Permalink 5:03 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The other blatant violation of “Political Correctness” in the @guardian no less: So be cause I am naturalized not native to the West I don’t have skin in the game? WTF is this? Permalink 4:22 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@MicMarsSays “CEOs and shareholders who want values maximised–people whose skin is very much in the game of driving down wages.” 1. Entrepreneurs have Skin-in-the-Game as doers 2. CEOs & shareholders are risk TRANSFERERS 3. Your conclusion inverts Taleb, as risk-transfer disenthralls Permalink 3:31 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb As a Lebanese Christian and given that we Levantine minorities are the main victims of Jihadis, I find Ms Zoe Williams’ claim about my absence of skin in the game w/the West very ignorant and, mostly, very very insensitive. Permalink 3:23 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Susan, being an author is not needed for symmetry. Symmetry is in what she is experiencing now, accountability for bullshitting in a book review. Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 I reviewed the main ideas of #SkinInTheGame on my twitter in this thread if anyone wants to readhttps://twitter.com/douglas9162/status/965968383736008704   Permalink 2:50 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@PostTruthSerum A list of British aircraft losses in Falklands shows that 25 out of the 35 aircraft lost were helicopters and 10 were fixed wing. pic.twitter.com/bK8f9y0CCo Permalink 2:10 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nitpicker nitpiked Dear @zoesqwilliams: Tks for the review. But if you want to nitpick, make sure you don’t make DISCONCERTING mistakes. 1) Learn something about vulnerability of helicopters 2) Minority rule is driven by manufacturing (bundling) 3) …https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/22/skin-in-the-game-nassim-nicholas-taleb-review?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet   Permalink 1:55 AM – 22 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dan Sitaru’s Inequality with a Double Integral https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/InequalityWithDoubleIntegral.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZTw5yGzaEo”>  pic.twitter.com/ZTw5yGzaEo Permalink 6:19 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@gappullback To figure out how well you will do ten years from now relative to someone else, count your enemies, count his, and square the ratio. – @nntaleb Permalink 2:20 AM – 21 Feb 2018

@robertwjordway Great podcast interview with BBC @nntaleb, clear and succinct aka no BS. Imagine if we kept a politician’s speech that short… #SkinInTheGamehttps://iono.fm/e/533487   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb London authentic squid ink pic.twitter.com/JMi2ASDDTv Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Rolling, waiting, stopping https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/WaitingForAllSix.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PAa7OGjsDa”>  pic.twitter.com/PAa7OGjsDa Permalink 9:04 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 A thread about 100 things I took from @nntaleb’s new book “skin in the game”https://twitter.com/Douglas9162/status/965961351221907456   Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 45- I am, at the fed level, Libertarian; at the state level, republican; at the local level, Democrat; at the family and friends level, a socialist. Permalink 7:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@byzantinepower Forces of The New Rome unite #Byzantium CC: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/dwUuhB7K9s Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, another (shortened) version… Clear enough? pic.twitter.com/vw2uqrljiz Permalink 3:03 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@Douglas9162 Have slept on Skin in the Game by @nntaleb, here is a thread about some things I learned/liked most Permalink 3:02 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Just hit me I have another talk at @dauntbooks at 12:30… Marylebone Permalink 2:26 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@nntaleb What is it with people expecting a James Bond villain?https://twitter.com/jasonolympics/status/965694502085320704   Permalink 1:32 AM – 20 Feb 2018

@adrianomcs87 If @nntaleb’s insight is right, and if the New Testment authors took a semitic (i.e., Hebraic) notion and translated it into doxa (meaning glory) then the view that they were vulgar Platonists is wrong, since doxa as opinion is one of the most basic notions of Platonism.https://twitter.com/startupdaemon/status/964679507381833728   Permalink 2:26 PM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Announcement: I am not in Glascow on Friday. Never heard of this.https://twitter.com/fornogoodreason/status/965590985962086400   Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@KenMWolfgang Talk with @nntaleb about the evidence supporting the efficacy of the psychological arts. Then come back and tell me it’s superior to prayer.https://twitter.com/rdfrs/status/965036559794888704   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@mikeharrisNY “. However, as Sepp’s chart below shows, What happened on February 5th was well outside the norm.” Ph.D in statistics should know that certain power laws have no “norm”. Outside the norm is the usual rather than the unusual. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@benshapiro Evidence gathered from many locations over many years indicates no religious person was arguing that, you dumbass.https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/964606017513410560   Permalink 6:49 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@yvespatte Ce livre @nntaleb est une véritable arme de self-defense contre les discours de ceux qui écrivent et déterminent le monde, sans jamais mettre leur peau en jeu, sans jamais en payer les conséquences (d’où l’asymétrie) & c’est un vrai plaidoyer pour les entrepreneurs ! A lire !! pic.twitter.com/ki61lgQVLG Permalink 2:23 AM – 19 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Should we announce that Mr Van Someren @alexvans will replace me and speak in my place at @Silva’s Second Home?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/965280477480448000   Permalink 8:02 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@NateAgapi If you haven’t already, you should read Nassim’s book Antifragile. It very much is a scientific critique on many modern systems. It centers on the lack of understanding of statistics. Much of what we think of as science is really mathematical ignorance. Taleb is trying to reform. Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb After 2 years of work, our paper “Gini Estimation under Infinite Variance” with @DrCirillo & colleague was accepted by Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Applications. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1707.01370.pdf   Permalink 1:21 PM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb A culture of intellectual honor: NEVER fight anyone outside the limit of the specific fight of concern to you. And never dig people when they are down. Now, intellecktchuals need to learn something about honor.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/965274466761756674   Permalink 11:16 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Oh no.https://twitter.com/Cyberlibris/status/965279683460960256   Permalink 9:41 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fact that I dislike @wmarybeard & her “scholarship” does not mean I need to be concerned with her other disputes. So I will block anyone getting me involved in her other problems. Gabish? Permalink 9:19 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Same for multiplicative chains from Government Interventionhttps://twitter.com/_youhadonejob1/status/965220109278212097   Permalink 7:25 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@Lekapenos Every time NNT says Phoenicia multiple Arabists commit suicide, Permalink 6:48 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Archeology? Of course: here is a Roman temple just outside the village. pic.twitter.com/JZtBNL1wvO Permalink 6:39 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Bottargua with Araq. Last day before Orth Lent pic.twitter.com/yyVWdvzNdi Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It snowed all night in Northern Phoenicia The “White Mountain” pic.twitter.com/vF8lmcSWg6 Permalink 3:03 AM – 18 Feb 2018

@nntaleb My neighbor in NY is first to see a hard copy of my book (I am in Northern Phoenicia & he opened the shipment).https://twitter.com/NcojoD/status/964923003078406145   Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If it is offensive to wonks, like @CLANicholson, it is purely intentional.https://twitter.com/CLANicholson/status/964875811173142529   Permalink 6:59 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@normonics the logic doesnt seem to work for bloggers. you share what you write on a blog. the blog is the product. N is writing books and sharing the making of the sausage. Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb So, in other words, if you see, say a B-School academic with the attitude that “he is smart & had he wanted he would be richer than practitioners” explain to him that he is not an academic BY CHOICE but out of incompetence. Permalink 4:07 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Indeed @R_Thaler’s mental accounting is an interesting intellectual fraud (I mean, really charlatanism): not only he did it statically but by his own admission verbalistically. They add “mathematics” for show. https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/963590651660005377   Permalink 3:28 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@Matthew_T_Kent If these people weren’t so out of touch, they would understand that stories of Trump having affairs with Playboy models will only serve to boost his image. As @nntaleb said: If someone would rather be Trump instead of his detractor, they won’t be swayed by the character attackshttps://twitter.com/ronanfarrow/status/964456374326448128   Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally, some mystical mathematics: https://www.dropbox.com/s/s93sh2els9tj7cs/GordianProbabilityFeb16-2018.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yZQrbaLRtM”>  pic.twitter.com/yZQrbaLRtM Permalink 1:37 AM – 17 Feb 2018

@startupdaemon One dictionary I found defined original δόξα as “conjecture”, not opinion. So there isn’t so much an evolution as filling in. The most basic SITG practice consists precisely of conjecture, then (in the extreme) heroic action to “test” it or “make it become manifest”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728560682489266178   Permalink 5:54 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@vonkronstadt You’re confusing different meanings of “belief”, again NNT nails it in one tweethttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/728562580583796737   Permalink 3:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb This mysterious @pseudoerasmus got the point that enlightenment != popenlightenment, Soviet-Harvardism reason!= naive rationalism, atheism, literalism scientism!= scientism sckepticism is about secular not metaphorical values. But he is wrong on Pinker Boy’s theory of violence.https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/962166440395771904   Permalink 3:05 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) THOSE WHO EAT TOGETHER BAND TOGETHER For instance since Muslims can eat Kosher food, why did they add another interdict: wine? To prevent socializing with Jews and Christians hence lower exposure to conversions. pic.twitter.com/d8w3Jgghbv Permalink 1:12 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Highly doubtful. This is an ad hoc “sounds good” explanation. A- 1) Kashrut came with >500 other interdicts. 2) Local neighbors (Greeks, Canaanites, pre-Islamic Arabians) had no such interdict on pork. B- Interdicts serve as religious markers. I discuss in SITG. Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nohttps://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/964595962218872832   Permalink 12:53 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb No, @NaomiAKlein should not retract. All tawk. She should go reside in Venezuela. Now. Skin in the game, @jordanbpeterson eliminates tawk.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/964538309593542657   Permalink 12:27 PM – 16 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic After having followed @nntaleb for many years, I now can’t look at ANY research and accompanying statistical analysis without skepticism. I’m basically seeing bullshit everywhere – it’s killing me! Permalink 9:05 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@jordanbpeterson Ms. Klein @NaomiAKlein since you haven’t retracted your very public support for the murderous totalitarians of Venezuela, it might be better if you just kept quiet…https://twitter.com/NaomiAKlein/status/964498312454918144   Permalink 8:33 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Tossing, waiting, and stopping https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoInARow.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/q5vFcWUzRv”>  pic.twitter.com/q5vFcWUzRv Permalink 7:27 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb NonProfiteers & academics who think they made a “sacrifice” underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to make money in the Real World w/o rentseeking. Authors who think they “sacrifice” by not dumbing down underestimate how hard (& rare) it is to sell a book to very wide audiences. Permalink 6:15 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@Mangan150 The replication crisis in clinical psychology: evidence that psychotherapy works is weak.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00256/full   Permalink 4:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@mikeandallie This falls into the professional math bucket and not the “math for kids” bucket that I’m usually tweeting about. This is a fascinating paper about the the amount of data you need to be able to make meaningful statements about a data set.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964452372167655425   Permalink 3:24 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) It is not just that the Leb war numbers are bogus but they come from journos who BS and cite each another (citation ring), causing an inflation in numbers. Some idiotic historian gets them into books w/1 citation. Trying to clean up war data w/@DrCirillo @ABarnardNYT Permalink 2:57 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The link is here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964450061164965888   Permalink 2:52 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Finally posted my paper on consequences of fat tails in observing an average (you need 10^13 more data for Pareto 80/20 than for a Gaussian). pic.twitter.com/hugGbKoGGN Permalink 2:43 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Actually the numbers for the Leb civil war are bogus. BTW I was there. Same as Hama 1982 climbing without reason. Chapter in Skin in the Game https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac  https://twitter.com/ABarnardNYT/status/964160904429539329   Permalink 2:30 AM – 16 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Smart actors become executives Permalink 10:42 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Random Inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RandomInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qPhmubXPrx”>  pic.twitter.com/qPhmubXPrx Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Twelve hours in Casablanca airport. Permalink 6:29 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a Meet in an Elimination Tournament https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/EliminationTournament.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wjEuVUAna2″>  pic.twitter.com/wjEuVUAna2 Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining the Weak Non-Ergodicity: Not only your fate will not “average out” but it will diverge over time, the opposite of what has been believed for 290 years in the stupid decision science literature.. Risk is something to be seen dynamically, not staticallt @ole_b_peters pic.twitter.com/K8Ffs5ufjZ Permalink 6:01 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@VergilDen Smart prostitutes become lobbyists Permalink 5:22 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Will @WikiTribune become a platform for Monsanto the way Wikipedia has been?https://twitter.com/TheDrum/status/964081874695049217   Permalink 3:20 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Without skin in the game: Smart drug dealers become pharmacopsychiatrists; smart astrologists become economists; smart serial killers write for the Wash Post; smart bullshitters become “experimental” psychologists; and smart bankrobbers become bankers. Permalink 2:40 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Nate Silver shd not be lecktchuring anyone on probability and statistics. And “deep learning” works better than stat 101 in many domains. Dangerously better.https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/963930336618078209   Permalink 12:39 AM – 15 Feb 2018

@careygillam These Citizen-Regulators In Arkansas Defied Monsanto. Now They’re Under Attack “He doesn’t regret his vote to shut down dicamba spraying. “I put forth a good effort, to the best of my ability, to protect the citizens of Arkansas,” he says.”https://n.pr/2G0Ixkj   Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Under the fascist regime of Franco, the Basque language was banned. Well, the Lebanese language site @learn_lebanese was suspended by Twitter for no apparent reason, with no negative interaction. Twitter, is it censorship by Arabists? Please explain. Permalink 11:37 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Historical Table of drawdowns (70 years of SP500, ~17k observations), different scales, and tail exponent concerves that of returns. pic.twitter.com/4AdgbZo6TI Permalink 10:38 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those wasting time listening to journos on market “collapse”: this is normal, very normal business. Very, very normal. Markets are in STATES OF DRAWDOWN (i.e. trade below the peak) ~75% of the time, EVEN when returns are yuge (see 180 years of drawdowns by @financequant) Permalink 10:29 AM – 14 Feb 2018

@WissamYKhalil Just read this great piece from @nntaleb. After I learned Syriac I noticed this, but never have I seen such evidence. Great work! A must read for all those who categories Lebanese as Arabs.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 11:55 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lesson: Nobody us Pro-Saudi Barbaria for freehttps://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/this-pro-saudi-tory-mp-was-paid-ps15000-for-his-work-on-a   Permalink 7:11 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb La Boetie: Pour accéder à la liberté, il faut n’être ni maître ni esclave.https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/963605967920386057   Permalink 7:03 PM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK, my turn to signal.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/963244315890905088   Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why we started the Real World Risk Institute: education can only come from practitioners.http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-caplan-education-credentials-20180211-story.html   Permalink 5:30 AM – 13 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile I used Mathematica for a functional quiz pic.twitter.com/omnsCnX3kT Permalink 6:36 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile (or philostochasticity)https://twitter.com/quantamagazine/status/962948174771097600   Permalink 3:46 PM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Lunch with maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath discussing probability riddles pic.twitter.com/1v8SEB3fEL Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@ole_b_peters This is the foundation of economics. On this page Bernoulli does NOT compute the expected net change of utility. Don’t take it from me, check for yourself and retweet when you’re convinced. Bernoulli’s 1738 paper http://bit.ly/2nShXn5   Hints on p.023103-6 http://bit.ly/2vwsp8y   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6Uh6ta2eys”>  pic.twitter.com/6Uh6ta2eys Permalink 8:17 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@MTayyabAhmed …one should learn to avoid using terms made for knowledge to describe its opposite. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan) #nassimnicholastaleb #theblackswan #quotes #nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CRElfG9OXu Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I cannot be diplomatic with harmful frauds. Sorry, but it is not my nature. I can’t stand frauds. I really can’t. Gabish? Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Before submitting to Arxiv, my paper on the law of larger numbers and statistical significance under Fat Tails, for error deteckshion. https://www.dropbox.com/s/r1yo700oeih4c87/kappa-n-3.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Btm0KXgzDV”>  pic.twitter.com/Btm0KXgzDV Permalink 7:03 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo It’s funny to read claims about changes in the number and magnitude of wars, when the average time span between two large wars is larger than the observation window used to support the claim. It’s like: since it has been raining for three days, the sun does not exist any longer! Permalink 5:52 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Very good, Joe. Descriptive statistics (i.e. without significance test), @DrCirillo and I will argue are a NO-NO with Fat tails and/or time series. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am certain Monsanto is taking over Wikipedia, @jimmy_wales. This page on the journal entropy does not mentions that many agencies consider Glyphosate likely carcinogenic, uses criticism by Monsanto shill Kevin Kloor. pic.twitter.com/hxSLCa6Cvg Permalink 4:49 AM – 12 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Incidentally, in spite of our plethoric explanations, @PTetlock keeps misdefining the precautionary principle as local risk management /what falls under tort laws. The Precautionary Principle is to make sure the system is there tomorrow.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/962272552256266245   Permalink 3:34 PM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The anti-BS vending mission is working, one mind at a time. (with permission) pic.twitter.com/1eXRe8G1Vn Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb It could be associated with bull worshiping coming from Neolithic central Anatolia, traveling with the J2 haplogroups across the Med (Canaanites, Minoans, etc.) In other words, perhaps it came WITH them in Mesolithic or early Neolithic, not learned from neighbors.https://twitter.com/MayaMargit/status/962702296646848513   Permalink 10:56 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb “We Are Living In A Reality Distortion” Mark Spitznagel Warns “This Is Not Over Yet” | Zero Hedgehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-10/mark-spitznagel-why-picking-market-crashes-impossible   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb FU attitude…https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/962705530803425280   Permalink 8:03 AM – 11 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 5) Actually @DrCirillo and I wrote a paper on historical wars assuming that historians are bullshitters, getting a sort of metric of robustness to bullshit by historians. https://arxiv.org/a/taleb_n_1.html   Permalink 3:13 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am not saying history is BS, only that what you find in history books is full of BS. A lot of fake news. Stop conflating History=good w/ historians=good. I am seeing that via history of wars and genetic maps. Also from bullshits by historians.https://twitter.com/San_person/status/962412576133951488   Permalink 12:16 PM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In fact, anyone who has taken risks professionally knows this intuitively, but verbagiastic @PTetlock and nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it. Permalink 11:32 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Explaining both the XIV trade and why forecasting is some type of academic BS. https://youtu.be/hRwimmE2wEk   via @YouTube Permalink 10:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei Yesterday I had my last day with @nntaleb. This is my last personal report about Real World Risk Institute workshop in New York City. Enjoy! #risk #rwri #antifragile #blackswan #skininthegamehttp://bit.ly/2Eh65RE   Permalink 10:18 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you look at the court system (common law), you can see that it evolved to build a process; not hard laws but procedures designed to minimize errors of reasoning. Permalink 9:31 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And what I mean by law is common law, bottom up pic.twitter.com/g4zCJZQRyA Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Why correlation is not correlationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 8:07 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb If you remember less crap as you age, it is largely that your filtering mechanism is getting trained.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/962350303185121280   Permalink 7:50 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything. Permalink 7:34 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) we know for sure Tabal is NOT Semitic in origin (TNBL= 4cons. not 3) also it is made into a verb in Leb. Permalink 6:22 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology Question du jour. Tanbal (“Farniente”) in Lebanese is Τεμπελιάζω in Modern Greek. Which one comes from the other, or is there a common origin?https://twitter.com/lecths/status/962321258238087168   Permalink 6:20 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb WEF staff is a bunch of BS artists concocting what feels right and sounds intelligent. Zero rigor. For instance @amonck is a fraud.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/734046282340306946   Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Rule in life: never cite/post analyses by WEF/Davos. Never.https://twitter.com/jraitamaa/status/962284005998649344   Permalink 4:57 AM – 10 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The pseudohistorian @mikeduncan has to be a total intellecktchual fraud: He jumped in, commenting on the Mary Beard problem without even knowing anything except that it was Mary Beard on the other side. Historians & pseudohistorians are good at fake news. Permalink 3:47 PM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The main difference between Mediterraneans and nonMeds: Farniente (doing nothing) is active for a Med. Permalink 10:53 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Which is why one should not let low-IQ state department & think tank analysts (without skin in the game) anywhere near your problem.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/961976714049015809   Permalink 6:56 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@nntaleb « Jouer sa peau » et gagnant-gagnant http://la-chronique-agora.com/jouer-peau-gagnant-gagnant/   via @lcagora Permalink 6:18 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Functional Inequality from Vietnam https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/FunctionalInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #geometry ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/n9OvM4WdLF”>  pic.twitter.com/n9OvM4WdLF Permalink 6:02 AM – 9 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Tonight, you could feel the frustration and embarrassment growing in Congress as we exposed the hypocrisy of Republicans who are joining in an unholy alliance and spending free-for-all with Democrats at the expense of the American people and our party’s supposed principles. Permalink 10:53 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@yaneerbaryam “Monsanto manipulated science to promote pesticide glyphosate and GMOs”https://twitter.com/i/moments/961759028891324417   Permalink 4:51 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@RandPaul Would you voluntarily give your money to the federal government for things like this? Wasteful spending is riddled throughout government and this deal just adds to the problem. pic.twitter.com/dMIk8cNR9u Permalink 3:30 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@trishankkarthik Really insightful observation by @nntaleb at #RWRI7 “Although the [cybersecurity] events involve multiple Gaussian points of failure, the dollars involved are power law distributed.” Permalink 2:17 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@_NicT_ Today at #RWRI @nntaleb described a third regime in between mediocristan and extremistan, notable for memoryless exposures over time. Hey Nassim you should call this one ‘persististan’. Permalink 12:50 PM – 8 Feb 2018

@GuruAnaerobic The Real World Risk Seminar is like being at a 5-day banquet. If u havent been yet, plse consider attending.The knowledge gained is immense Permalink 9:44 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@CllrBSilvester During 2nd World War many Brits went to fight with French Resistance against the Nazis. When they came back, if they did, they were treated like heroes They weren’t thrown in prison This Tory Gov has totally left leave of its senses. Most people can’t believe they have done thishttps://twitter.com/CllrBSilvester/status/961563915024044032   Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@jacoporomei So much to tell, too much to tell! #RWRI Day 3: my experience report. @avanscoperta! We will need 34 meetup! :-D #complexity #iyi #risk #cravattato http://bit.ly/2GXSaBB   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iB9dSMWPzw”>  pic.twitter.com/iB9dSMWPzw Permalink 12:30 AM – 8 Feb 2018

@ayltoncf Maybe @nntaleb would like this one.https://twitter.com/downunderabc123/status/961194569231560704   Permalink 3:47 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb REWRI (Real World Risk Seminar), @trishankkarthik presenting P/NP and predictability, comments on GMOs. pic.twitter.com/5TI9hgOr4v Permalink 12:51 PM – 7 Feb 2018

@Spfannenschmidt In light of @nntaleb’s #RWRI 1) rules for optimizing group vs individual characteristics should differ 2) some of the trees in your random decision forest should be paranoid and overreacthttps://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/960254800179945473   Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A correction is in order pic.twitter.com/hqeZO4JUqi Permalink 8:18 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Difference with Pinker boy (@sapinker): + No US book tour (1 lecktchur in NY) + No copies sent to journos (they can buy it themselves) and mostly +No BShttps://twitter.com/sapinker/status/960616039582240768   Permalink 7:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Non, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabeNon, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte » arabe”https://medium.com/p/non-le-libanais-nest-pas-un-dialecte-arabenon-le-libanais-n-est-pas-un-dialecte-arabe-844fb8dda2f2   Permalink 6:25 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Always apologize except when did something wrong. (Bed of Procrustes) Permalink 6:14 AM – 7 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Apologies are just words. You want them to ALSO lose their own money. Nomura “Sincerely Apologizes” For Blowing Up Investors With Its VIX-Linked ETN | Zero Hedgehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-07/nomura-sincerely-apologizes-blowing-investors-its-vix-linked-etn   Permalink 5:50 AM – 7 Feb 2018