Monthly Archives: August 2017

The Logic of Risk Taking | Medium

The Logic of Risk Taking

Consider the following thought experiment.

First case, one hundred persons go to a Casino, to gamble a certain set amount each and have complimentary gin and tonic –as shown in the cartoon in Figure x. Some may lose, some may win, and we can infer at the end of the day what the “edge” is, that is, calculate the returns simply by counting the money left with the people who return. We can thus figure out if the casino is properly pricing the odds. Now assume that gambler number 28 goes bust. Will gambler number 29 be affected? No.

Something Neither Antisemitic Nordic Supremacists Nor Arab Nationalists Will Like | Medium

Something Neither Antisemitic Nordic Supremacists Nor Arab Nationalists Will Like

Something Hitler Would Not Have Liked

Although White Supremacists like to be antisemitic, here is something Hitler would have hated: Ancient Greeks were genetically as close to Ancient Levantines as they were to the so called “Aryans”. It just happened that Ancient Greeks spoke an Indo-European language while Ancient Levantines spoke a Semitic one.

Atlanta, Borat, Minority Rule, Monsanto, Ergodicity, Revolutions, Rationality, Armenians, Betrayal, Tesla, Fermat, @GadSaad | Twitter

@nntaleb OK OK La Grotta Permalink 5:47 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 75% of @newtgingrich’s book (from page 80 on) revolves around the Intellectual Yet Idiot IYI problem.   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta coffee conversation w/ @geoffreydgraham @justinno @WhiteSwanof87 @su_js1 (a lot of coffee). Permalink 10:10 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Logic of Risk Taking”   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Rephrase her question to “how many Greco-Roman classics were written by nonWhites” to”How many were written by blonds & nonMeds”.About zero. Permalink 3:08 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@lilbabykeffiyeh @nntaleb might have knowledge on this. Permalink 8:59 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@KennyAngel11 Nassim Taleb looked like Borat   Permalink 12:54 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy Geopolitical Institutions conflate relations between countries with relations between governments @nntaleb   Permalink 9:43 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Languages mutate. We can watch the process of mutation with out own eyes.   Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 2) People don’t get is that you don’t assess a car by *speed* but *change* in speed. (Second order effect, convexity = antifragile) Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Minority Rule actually debunks the Aryan vs Semitic theory. Meds are Meds, Nordics are Nordics   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta. Any recommendations? Squid ink, etc. Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you want people to pay close attention to your posts, block them on Twitter. Permalink 2:58 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fr: un clou en chasse un autre. Permalink 1:53 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Not a very good day to be Monsanto. An Italian proverb: one needs a nail to displace a nail. Companies, not govt, remove bad apples.   Permalink 1:43 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question. Permalink 12:57 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy History is largely peace punctuated by wars, rather than wars punctuated by peace @nntaleb cc: @SebGorka   Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Common sense wd say that if in the past censorship was seen as a thing of the “right”, those we really need to worry will be on the “left”   Permalink 10:23 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Main advantage of Tesla: for daily life, we benefit more from acceleration (for safety) than max speed, since there are speed limits.   Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@rmnth “I can use data to disprove a proposition, never to prove one.” ~ @nntaleb   Permalink 9:17 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The bon pensant Cambridge dons… Permalink 5:57 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The central chapter of Skin in the Game: explaining ergodicity @ole_b_peters Is it easy to get? Permalink 2:18 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@HarrisonSearles The American empire cannot impose a top-down peace on Afghanistan. Peace can only come bottom-up.   via @nntaleb Permalink 12:22 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Logical/statistical error: Revolutions are preceded by resentment, but resentment not nec. followed by revolutions. see #FooledbyRandomness   Permalink 11:13 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb For years I have refused to f. spell expletives in my book, e.g. “f*** you money”, etc. From now on, for consistency, will do so on Twitter. Permalink 10:49 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb She is using Twitter, and, I surmise, a computer and, I also surmise, software.   Permalink 9:38 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Problem of the education system: bitter college profs & parasites of the system drill into the head of people that wealth = explotation   Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There should be no privilege for being wealthy. But there should be no shame, no guilt for being wealthy.   Permalink 8:57 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I support @PamelaGeller w/her censorship by PayPal. But she is v. IGNORANT: unlike Salafis, Shiites don’t Christians/Jews as “infidels”. Permalink 8:09 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb BS Busting Du Jour: More fundamental mistakes in Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci high noise /no signal account.   Permalink 7:34 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Arabic name for Med was “Baḣr er-Rum”, Roman(Byzantine) sea. Like Persian (->”Arabian”) Gulf, censored from textbooks. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@ExoThinker Your daily does of WTF: Nassim Taleb and other nerds discussing Talmud and Aramaic.   Permalink 10:50 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Is there a Ashura expert in the room? I wonder if my diacritical are right for the poem about skin in the game. Thanks! Permalink 1:48 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Challenge a BSvendorusingscience who uses eclipse to make us believe we know climate: Predict temperature in NYC at 12:PM Oct 21 2017   Permalink 12:53 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Typo! Permalink 11:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb LESSON Looking like a “victim” will enbolden your enemies & make your cowardly friends look the other way. Wusses are never good to losers Permalink 10:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Quiz du jour a la @CutTheKnotMath @LorenzoWVilla Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Incidentally, classical Arabic has a word, Wiq7, for both rude and right. Permalink 8:56 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@John07331405 It does mean u are rude, I think u are pretty rude. I also think you are right about everything (xcpt some comment a long tm ago about Eire) Permalink 8:24 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Average price/ average earnings != Average( If E>0, P/E)   Permalink 8:17 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I don’t understand English Middle Class English. What does “You are rude” mean? Permalink 7:57 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In Levantine, 3a “to” is from Aramaic or older N Semitic. Arabic/ South Semitic equivalent is “ila”, similar to Heb “la”.   Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mary Beard retweets n accusations of “misogyny” & articles in press & claims she never accused me of “misogyny” Historians shdn’t Fabricate! Permalink 5:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This should refresh your memory. For a “historian”, you keep being caught with misrepresentations. Permalink 5:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@DaronLarson “Being nice to others reveals character if and only if it is optional.” @nntaleb #kindness #magnanimity Permalink 5:00 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb NOTHING academic in calling pple “misogynists” for dissenting, using Lewinski/Rowling & misrepresenting debate @wmarybeard you’re a sham   Permalink 4:52 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@jasperhamill I’ve seen people’s apologies used against them. Say sorry and you prove your guilt eternally. There is no forgiveness. Permalink 3:58 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Lesson I leared from UK thoughtnazis. Appease/correct them w/”I am not saying…”; they destroy you Be aggressive, disrespect: they freakout Permalink 3:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Evidence it is skin ink: stain on plates (and on your teeth), uneven coloring. Otherwise it is just dyed pasta.   Permalink 3:28 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb A project is needed to bring back North Africa to its preArab Mediterranean kultchur   Permalink 2:34 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The patch in Northern Syria is gone. Because Obama. MSM are despicable. Permalink 1:52 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Armenians have been victim of a second ethnic cleansing in Aleppo by Obama’s “rebels”. You need to call things by their name.   Permalink 1:50 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Ron Paul @RonPaul Permalink 11:09 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Donald Trump’s @realDonaldTrump irreversible mistake: betrayal. You can recover from many mistakes. Betrayal you can only do once. Permalink 10:24 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Trying to explain what people don’t get about decentralization, why I loved Brexit! Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Then here mistranslated should be “when a puny man kills a hero” Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game is not literal, Bava Kama 84a 3ayn ta7ata 3ayn (incidentally, in Aramaic) Permalink 6:49 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Unlike Klueless Massimo BSing on scientism, we ACTUALLY looked at what historical data can & cannot say. @DrCirillo   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Klueless Massimo doesn’t even know what SCIENTISM is. By masturbating w/other philosophers one can’t understand anything in the real world. Permalink 6:04 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My motto has always been: Debate the audience, not the person. Don’t even try to convince someone that he or she is wrong. Permalink 6:02 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Neither Antisemitic Nordic Supremacists Nor Arab Nationalists Will Like”   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@zzap Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s recent interview on work, slavery, and skin in the game on @EconTalker is sO good   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb One shall not use science outside the strict domains it itself defines. Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “In investments, better to sell out one year too early than one day too late.” My friend and banker Joe Audi Permalink 1:53 PM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why Ibn Khaldoun is not banned in Arabian countries? Permalink 9:14 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@CharlieHoefer Nassim’s Aryan twitter followers are not happy with him this morning… Permalink 8:58 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb – L’intolleranza vince sempre: il dispotismo della minoranza   @vocidallestero Permalink 7:47 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb First week of @TeslaMotors. Great to have a gas station at home. MAIN DRAWBACK: no squeegee of windshield when you refill ! Permalink 7:29 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Lebanese Arabists & Arab Nationalists Will Not Like”.   Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, point is Phoenicians were genetically close to Greeks. Are all other “White” Supremacists as stupid as you ? Permalink 6:02 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Nordic Supremacists Will Not Like”   Permalink 5:28 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Catholic MEANS secular.   Permalink 3:53 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You can see what killed Mediterraneanism, right there.   Permalink 3:44 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Even his email was disabled by Google.   Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Of course there are other options, s.a. Burkean “small c”, etc. But that’s not what I am trying to figure out. Permalink 6:37 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb MSM lies, smear Bannon. Bannon was against warmongers! In Syria, Afghanistan, etc. I vouch! He hates INTERVENTIONISTAS w/o #Skininthegame Permalink 4:09 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mediterraneanism Permalink 3:44 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Which group best represent your political “orientation”? Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Was asked if am “right” or “left” +No power over citizens, neither Gov nor Corps +Local >Global (Federalism) +particular >Universal +1st Am. Permalink 9:49 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb How to make a weapons lobbying slush fund. No wonder @MiddleEastInst loves war in Syria.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:39 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb An illustration of the BIAS-VARIANCE tradeoff or why in some situations being “wrong” is better than being imprecise. (Superstitions) Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You detect Monsanto shills such as Folta (aside frm recent proof of payments): they supports BOTH GMOs & Glyphosate What connects the 2? Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There is nothing IRRATIONAL per se in “believing” in SANTA CLAUS @rorysutherland Permalink 5:07 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Why “rationality” as described by unrigorous BS vendors is not compatible with axioms of rationality. No rationality without #Skininthegame Permalink 4:58 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fermat was an amateur, a side activity (he was a lawyer by day). He would have loved the endless supply of brainteasers from @CutTheKnotMath   Permalink 3:18 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Bye2tol 2el 2atil wbyemshe bi-jnezto “He murders then attends the funeral of his victims”   Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mr Bianchi @WhitesPhD, no ad hominem for “Finance professors” is for bullshitters who 1) can’t “do”& trade, 2) can’t be scientists. Gabish? Permalink 1:01 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Notice that it was not terrorists but a van attacking people in #Barcelona. Permalink 11:23 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Salute to @GadSaad for having the highest of virtues: frankness & intellectual courage. Let’s support him in his fight for freedom of speech Permalink 10:17 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Living with an oversensitive BS detector Permalink 8:32 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “Would”. Same academics who were certain that “If Trump were elected…”   Permalink 8:20 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@normonics is this about it? Permalink 7:15 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@tolzasso media bias: turn the discussion about representativeness in populations into a sexist attack by @nntaleb #wtf   Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asinum fricat = الطنجرة لاقت غطاها Permalink 5:51 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asimum fricate, or, in Fat Tony’s language: bullshitter supports bullshitter.   Permalink 5:24 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words, it increases distances when they are small, and decrease the larger ones… Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Something about PCA analyses: they preserve order but may not scale distances properly, compared to differential entropy. @iosif_lazaridis Permalink 5:00 AM – 17 Aug 2017

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Sees Greater Risks Than Nuclear War | Bloomberg TV

Bloomberg TV Markets and Finance
Published on Aug 16, 2017
Aug.16 — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, adviser at Universa Investments, sat down for an interview with Erik Schatzker Tuesday evening in New York. Taleb, famous for his assessment of risk, says there are greater risks out there than nuclear war with North Korea.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the manuscript version of his forthcoming book, Skin in the Game. Topics discussed include the role of skin in the game in labor markets, the power of minorities, the Lindy effect, Taleb’s blind spots and regrets, and the politics of globalization.