Tag Archives: rationality

The Logic of Risk Taking | Medium

The Logic of Risk Taking

Consider the following thought experiment.

First case, one hundred persons go to a Casino, to gamble a certain set amount each and have complimentary gin and tonic –as shown in the cartoon in Figure x. Some may lose, some may win, and we can infer at the end of the day what the “edge” is, that is, calculate the returns simply by counting the money left with the people who return. We can thus figure out if the casino is properly pricing the odds. Now assume that gambler number 28 goes bust. Will gambler number 29 be affected? No.

Atlanta, Borat, Minority Rule, Monsanto, Ergodicity, Revolutions, Rationality, Armenians, Betrayal, Tesla, Fermat, @GadSaad | Twitter

@nntaleb OK OK La Grotta pic.twitter.com/2aFM44a2dW Permalink 5:47 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 75% of @newtgingrich’s book (from page 80 on) revolves around the Intellectual Yet Idiot IYI problem.https://twitter.com/AlexPappas/status/901171827799719936   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta coffee conversation w/ @geoffreydgraham @justinno @WhiteSwanof87 @su_js1 (a lot of coffee). pic.twitter.com/oLB5ayZFOR Permalink 10:10 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Logic of Risk Taking”https://medium.com/p/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Rephrase her question to “how many Greco-Roman classics were written by nonWhites” to”How many were written by blonds & nonMeds”.About zero. Permalink 3:08 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@lilbabykeffiyeh @nntaleb might have knowledge on this. Permalink 8:59 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@KennyAngel11 Nassim Taleb looked like Borathttps://abbeylink.wordpress.com/2017/08/24/nassim-taleb-looked-like-borat/   Permalink 12:54 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy Geopolitical Institutions conflate relations between countries with relations between governments @nntalebhttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 9:43 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Languages mutate. We can watch the process of mutation with out own eyes.https://twitter.com/BrittPettibone/status/900707817606094848   Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 2) People don’t get is that you don’t assess a car by *speed* but *change* in speed. (Second order effect, convexity = antifragile) Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Minority Rule actually debunks the Aryan vs Semitic theory. Meds are Meds, Nordics are Nordics https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fZYFV1dvUv”>  pic.twitter.com/fZYFV1dvUv Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta. Any recommendations? Squid ink, etc. Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you want people to pay close attention to your posts, block them on Twitter. Permalink 2:58 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fr: un clou en chasse un autre. Permalink 1:53 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Not a very good day to be Monsanto. An Italian proverb: one needs a nail to displace a nail. Companies, not govt, remove bad apples.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/900454905554579456   Permalink 1:43 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question. Permalink 12:57 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy History is largely peace punctuated by wars, rather than wars punctuated by peace @nntaleb cc: @SebGorkahttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Common sense wd say that if in the past censorship was seen as a thing of the “right”, those we really need to worry will be on the “left”https://twitter.com/julianassange/status/900308121024954370   Permalink 10:23 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Main advantage of Tesla: for daily life, we benefit more from acceleration (for safety) than max speed, since there are speed limits.https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/900106814187950081   Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@rmnth “I can use data to disprove a proposition, never to prove one.” ~ @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/ProfFeynman/status/900388591259353092   Permalink 9:17 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The bon pensant Cambridge dons… pic.twitter.com/NLnWyAbipV Permalink 5:57 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The central chapter of Skin in the Game: explaining ergodicity @ole_b_peters Is it easy to get? pic.twitter.com/g6dVDSRILG Permalink 2:18 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@HarrisonSearles The American empire cannot impose a top-down peace on Afghanistan. Peace can only come bottom-up. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   via @nntaleb Permalink 12:22 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Logical/statistical error: Revolutions are preceded by resentment, but resentment not nec. followed by revolutions. see #FooledbyRandomnesshttps://twitter.com/alrik3/status/900055165713166337   Permalink 11:13 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb For years I have refused to f. spell expletives in my book, e.g. “f*** you money”, etc. From now on, for consistency, will do so on Twitter. Permalink 10:49 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb She is using Twitter, and, I surmise, a computer and, I also surmise, software.https://twitter.com/greenwoodae/status/900033287648714752   Permalink 9:38 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Problem of the education system: bitter college profs & parasites of the system drill into the head of people that wealth = explotationhttps://twitter.com/DougMartin17/status/900028062200475649   Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There should be no privilege for being wealthy. But there should be no shame, no guilt for being wealthy.https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/899989870478856192   Permalink 8:57 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I support @PamelaGeller w/her censorship by PayPal. But she is v. IGNORANT: unlike Salafis, Shiites don’t Christians/Jews as “infidels”. Permalink 8:09 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb BS Busting Du Jour: More fundamental mistakes in Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci high noise /no signal account.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 7:34 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Arabic name for Med was “Baḣr er-Rum”, Roman(Byzantine) sea. Like Persian (->”Arabian”) Gulf, censored from textbooks. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@ExoThinker Your daily does of WTF: Nassim Taleb and other nerds discussing Talmud and Aramaic.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/899267232542453760   Permalink 10:50 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”https://medium.com/p/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”https://medium.com/p/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Is there a Ashura expert in the room? I wonder if my diacritical are right for the poem about skin in the game. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/8uXC3gnhJ4 Permalink 1:48 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Challenge a BSvendorusingscience who uses eclipse to make us believe we know climate: Predict temperature in NYC at 12:PM Oct 21 2017https://twitter.com/MuhammedKambal/status/899718155483979776   Permalink 12:53 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Typo! pic.twitter.com/718kTSNTTg Permalink 11:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb LESSON Looking like a “victim” will enbolden your enemies & make your cowardly friends look the other way. Wusses are never good to losers Permalink 10:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Quiz du jour a la @CutTheKnotMath @LorenzoWVilla pic.twitter.com/eSYgojapcs Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Incidentally, classical Arabic has a word, Wiq7, for both rude and right. Permalink 8:56 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@John07331405 It does mean u are rude, I think u are pretty rude. I also think you are right about everything (xcpt some comment a long tm ago about Eire) Permalink 8:24 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Average price/ average earnings != Average( If E>0, P/E)https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/899647893379756032   Permalink 8:17 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I don’t understand English Middle Class English. What does “You are rude” mean? Permalink 7:57 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In Levantine, 3a “to” is from Aramaic or older N Semitic. Arabic/ South Semitic equivalent is “ila”, similar to Heb “la”.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/899605015731601409   Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mary Beard retweets n accusations of “misogyny” & articles in press & claims she never accused me of “misogyny” Historians shdn’t Fabricate! Permalink 5:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This should refresh your memory. For a “historian”, you keep being caught with misrepresentations. pic.twitter.com/Wv4SlVoYoV Permalink 5:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@DaronLarson “Being nice to others reveals character if and only if it is optional.” @nntaleb #kindness #magnanimity Permalink 5:00 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb NOTHING academic in calling pple “misogynists” for dissenting, using Lewinski/Rowling & misrepresenting debate @wmarybeard you’re a shamhttps://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/899597706020007936   Permalink 4:52 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@jasperhamill I’ve seen people’s apologies used against them. Say sorry and you prove your guilt eternally. There is no forgiveness. Permalink 3:58 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Lesson I leared from UK thoughtnazis. Appease/correct them w/”I am not saying…”; they destroy you Be aggressive, disrespect: they freakout Permalink 3:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Evidence it is skin ink: stain on plates (and on your teeth), uneven coloring. Otherwise it is just dyed pasta.https://twitter.com/VinceBSbuster/status/899578318701416448   Permalink 3:28 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb A project is needed to bring back North Africa to its preArab Mediterranean kultchurhttps://twitter.com/xhos1982/status/899383122009223168   Permalink 2:34 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The patch in Northern Syria is gone. Because Obama. MSM are despicable. pic.twitter.com/ZdXdzpQHm9 Permalink 1:52 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Armenians have been victim of a second ethnic cleansing in Aleppo by Obama’s “rebels”. You need to call things by their name.https://twitter.com/humanitasromana/status/899370286231040002   Permalink 1:50 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Ron Paul @RonPaul Permalink 11:09 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Donald Trump’s @realDonaldTrump irreversible mistake: betrayal. You can recover from many mistakes. Betrayal you can only do once. Permalink 10:24 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Trying to explain what people don’t get about decentralization, why I loved Brexit! pic.twitter.com/QR87nNHHex Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Then here mistranslated should be “when a puny man kills a hero” pic.twitter.com/2gPFBzxVwa Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game is not literal, Bava Kama 84a 3ayn ta7ata 3ayn (incidentally, in Aramaic) pic.twitter.com/INkXFj60jT Permalink 6:49 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Unlike Klueless Massimo BSing on scientism, we ACTUALLY looked at what historical data can & cannot say. @DrCirillo https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Klueless Massimo doesn’t even know what SCIENTISM is. By masturbating w/other philosophers one can’t understand anything in the real world. Permalink 6:04 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My motto has always been: Debate the audience, not the person. Don’t even try to convince someone that he or she is wrong. Permalink 6:02 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Neither Antisemitic Nordic Supremacists Nor Arab Nationalists Will Like”https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@zzap Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s recent interview on work, slavery, and skin in the game on @EconTalker is sO good http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/08/nassim_nicholas_1.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8xDPmmMB11″>  pic.twitter.com/8xDPmmMB11 Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb One shall not use science outside the strict domains it itself defines. pic.twitter.com/4RrD9t9vQJ Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “In investments, better to sell out one year too early than one day too late.” My friend and banker Joe Audi Permalink 1:53 PM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why Ibn Khaldoun is not banned in Arabian countries? pic.twitter.com/LI5aSQQTXX Permalink 9:14 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@CharlieHoefer Nassim’s Aryan twitter followers are not happy with him this morning… Permalink 8:58 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb – L’intolleranza vince sempre: il dispotismo della minoranza http://wp.me/p56cLj-3eK   @vocidallestero Permalink 7:47 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb First week of @TeslaMotors. Great to have a gas station at home. MAIN DRAWBACK: no squeegee of windshield when you refill ! pic.twitter.com/JjpE9udB2Z Permalink 7:29 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Lebanese Arabists & Arab Nationalists Will Not Like”.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, point is Phoenicians were genetically close to Greeks. Are all other “White” Supremacists as stupid as you ? Permalink 6:02 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Nordic Supremacists Will Not Like”https://medium.com/p/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 5:28 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Catholic MEANS secular.https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 3:53 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You can see what killed Mediterraneanism, right there.https://twitter.com/BrilliantMaps/status/898850780333133824   Permalink 3:44 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Even his email was disabled by Google.https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/898730013037477889   Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Of course there are other options, s.a. Burkean “small c”, etc. But that’s not what I am trying to figure out. Permalink 6:37 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb MSM lies, smear Bannon. Bannon was against warmongers! In Syria, Afghanistan, etc. I vouch! He hates INTERVENTIONISTAS w/o #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/ezlmu9dsqC Permalink 4:09 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mediterraneanism pic.twitter.com/1SQaFR4KDc Permalink 3:44 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Which group best represent your political “orientation”? Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Was asked if am “right” or “left” +No power over citizens, neither Gov nor Corps +Local >Global (Federalism) +particular >Universal +1st Am. Permalink 9:49 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb How to make a weapons lobbying slush fund. No wonder @MiddleEastInst loves war in Syria. https://interc.pt/2vGw0jK   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qpdZQx1Y7I”>  pic.twitter.com/qpdZQx1Y7I Permalink 8:39 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb An illustration of the BIAS-VARIANCE tradeoff or why in some situations being “wrong” is better than being imprecise. (Superstitions) pic.twitter.com/GCSoTGcBg3 Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You detect Monsanto shills such as Folta (aside frm recent proof of payments): they supports BOTH GMOs & Glyphosate What connects the 2? Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There is nothing IRRATIONAL per se in “believing” in SANTA CLAUS @rorysutherland pic.twitter.com/MJyyRZlzAd Permalink 5:07 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Why “rationality” as described by unrigorous BS vendors is not compatible with axioms of rationality. No rationality without #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/KwD3IpnqFN Permalink 4:58 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fermat was an amateur, a side activity (he was a lawyer by day). He would have loved the endless supply of brainteasers from @CutTheKnotMathhttps://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/898216622447624192   Permalink 3:18 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Bye2tol 2el 2atil wbyemshe bi-jnezto “He murders then attends the funeral of his victims”https://twitter.com/alarabiya_eng/status/898268838239899649   Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mr Bianchi @WhitesPhD, no ad hominem for “Finance professors” is for bullshitters who 1) can’t “do”& trade, 2) can’t be scientists. Gabish? Permalink 1:01 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Notice that it was not terrorists but a van attacking people in #Barcelona. pic.twitter.com/L4VZC56BJY Permalink 11:23 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Salute to @GadSaad for having the highest of virtues: frankness & intellectual courage. Let’s support him in his fight for freedom of speech Permalink 10:17 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Living with an oversensitive BS detector pic.twitter.com/EwrehX7oLS Permalink 8:32 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “Would”. Same academics who were certain that “If Trump were elected…”https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/898202340791992320   Permalink 8:20 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@normonics is this about it? pic.twitter.com/NwKMvNenSS Permalink 7:15 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@tolzasso media bias: turn the discussion about representativeness in populations into a sexist attack by @nntaleb #wtfhttps://goo.gl/9741Fz   Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asinum fricat = الطنجرة لاقت غطاها Permalink 5:51 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asimum fricate, or, in Fat Tony’s language: bullshitter supports bullshitter.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/896025438694367233   Permalink 5:24 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words, it increases distances when they are small, and decrease the larger ones… Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Something about PCA analyses: they preserve order but may not scale distances properly, compared to differential entropy. @iosif_lazaridis pic.twitter.com/HYFVz4zI6L Permalink 5:00 AM – 17 Aug 2017

“If rationality were valuable in evolutionary terms, accountants would be really sexy.”

Friends, let us discuss this point by Rory Sutherland:
“If rationality were valuable in evolutionary terms, accountants would be really sexy.”
1) Is it that professions that are attractive to others and provide social rank satisfy a certain selection criterion, with hidden benefits to society that we can detect? I think so: courage is extremely attractive and heroes are worshipped for a reason, as they take risks for the collective. But is it universal?
2) The accountant definition of rationality is too narrow and not altruistic enough to qualify as useful for the collective. They are scribes, not high priests.
3) We can extend the discussion to other professions: mathematicians (I am told) aren’t interesting to others (except to math students); same with economists. If these professions don’t seem “sexy” is it because they aren’t that “fit”?

via: Facebook

Continuing on the rationality-as-survival point…

Continuing on the rationality-as-survival point, there is a confusion when it comes to “rationality” of a decision between the *reduced* and the *structural* form, and the *static* and *dynamic* form:
+ a single decision vs. a RULE generating a sequence of decisions. One decision can be rational while the rule is not. It would be rational for me to eat tuna today but under repetition it would harm the planet so it is OK to keep switching preferences. We saw that intransitive preferences or random preferences can be very rational.
+ it may seem irrational to not take the direct route between 2 points, but under convexity of payoffs/nonlinear transformation it becomes so. You may discover a new direction.
+ local vs. global rationality. Mental accounting: say husband would not buy a tie by himself but his wife –with a joint checking account –gives it to him as a gift and he is excited. It could be irrational for a given instance but as a method it prevents people from splurging.
+ ludic vs. ecological environments. Some actions show biases in a casino and are irrational but real life is not a casino and these can be really rational. Life is ambiguous, laboratory settings are not.