Tag Archives: ergodicity

Ergodicity, Immigration, Nudgers, Monsanto, Gold, Blue, Pedophrasty, Pinker, Harris | Twitter

@nntaleb Ergodicity part 2! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1013450757943775233   Permalink 2:12 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He got ergodicity. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1013450358163755010   Permalink 2:08 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Of course. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1013019208085639169   Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war. & as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place. So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The discussion is not about the invention of calculus, but about Leibnitz, the last of the real polymaths (although he didn’t lift weights), and how mathematics is something that one can pick-up later in life. Gabish? Permalink 5:48 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) OK, OK, my Indian friends. Rediscovered calculus. Works now? Permalink 7:33 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Leibniz was a legal philosopher who at the age of 26 decided to learn math, then (co)invented calculus. https://twitter.com/MathsEdIdeas/status/1013204854066606081   Permalink 7:26 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up. Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions. Permalink 7:22 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@normonics It’s not just pol sci people. The idea that the scale of a system is relevant to its behavior is OBVIOUS; yet almost never accounted for. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1013100413602680837   Permalink 3:10 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb What intellectuals don’t get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY: OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame Gabish? Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@Jeff_Fine Questions? pic.twitter.com/e7r4mQunXF Permalink 1:03 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn’t work. For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn’t exist. Permalink 12:59 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) This illusion that one can work with abstract ideas WITHOUT embedding them is the reason “intellectuals” don’t get skin in the game. (thread w @ClaireBerlinski ) Permalink 9:44 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is some type of common reasoning defect shared by people in political “science”: they don’t get scaling “Democracy” is not scalable. They don’t understand my insults: it’s not about ideas but in what environments ideas can be practically executed #ComplexSystems https://twitter.com/ClaireBerlinski/status/1013058174465859587   Permalink 9:42 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@Baloo1987 An article written by a toxicologist working for #Monsanto is then handed to regulators who then simply copy-pasted it into the EU regulatory review. The definition a revolving door. Unbelievable! #CIJsummer #MonsantoPapers pic.twitter.com/jdJtyBa60K Permalink 6:02 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Functional Equation https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/DorinMarghidanuFunctionalEquation.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WRgWtwrGRm”>  pic.twitter.com/WRgWtwrGRm Permalink 5:43 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Hope @freakonometrics can comment, as a follow-up to our debate with @DrCirillo as to whether statisticians have considered such consequence of fattailedness. All comments, whether positive or negative, are welcome. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 2:53 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Congress set up non-profits to raise $ for @NIH & @CDCGov. They illegally hid info about their corporate donors. Meanwhile, US health experienced its worst decline in a century. Now they’re lying about it. Time for #skininthegame. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/us-lawmakers-want-nih-and-cdc-foundations-say-more-about-donors   cc: @nntaleb Permalink 2:41 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fraud Alert: QUORA ask Statisticians what they think of my work and get Unethical Mandari Narayan @neurostats to comment on anecdotes from Incerto, WITHOUT considering technical work. The fraud by Mandari Narayan sits for 3 y on the web. Comment on this! http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   Permalink 2:07 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The initial results of the M4 Competition can be found/downloaded in https://www.m4.unic.ac.cy/results/   The ranking of the first half of methods can be seen below ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fPmOZHkUGw”>  pic.twitter.com/fPmOZHkUGw Permalink 9:46 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never been more excited to attend a conference! @NECSI’s #ICCS2018 https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/1012102041446084608   Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other counterintuitive aspect is that EVEN if Country X won EVERY past game, injecting a tiny bit of randomness into the system can make its probability of winning drop below, say, 10%. A tiny bit of randomness percolates quickly across the branches of the tree. Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is a set of probabilities that can give Germany 25% of winning without 100% probability of being in the semi-finals: that CONDITIONAL on making the semi-finals probability increases. However, the opposite holds: the higher up, the MORE 1/n. Gabish? Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Et cela continue https://www.capital.fr/votre-carriere/la-bibliotheque-du-manager-jouer-sa-peau-de-nicholas-taleb-1295541   Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria). The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/r3T9zNsB4k”>  pic.twitter.com/r3T9zNsB4k Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final. Don’t listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability. Permalink 5:07 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Discovered something: negative kurtosis and negative kappa. Some distributions are thinner-tailed than the Gaussian (needs to be bimodal) pic.twitter.com/JW0q7oFBok Permalink 4:56 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, thanks to the crowd-corrections @spyrosmakrid gave me a stay of execution. I got an extension. Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Les françaises et français commencent a aimer mon livre “Jouer sa peau”. Ils en ont marre de leur fonctionnaires. pic.twitter.com/wgZoj0bCJG Permalink 4:47 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Naturally it debunks some of the “nudgers” s.a. @r_thaler showing they don’t understand fat tails & probability. pic.twitter.com/FKZJiIgnef Permalink 4:00 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, I was told in no uncertain terms by the editors & @spyrosmakrid that I get severely punished if I don’t meet the deadline for this paper (today). Please help find errors. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0   (cont) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jvngV00bHs”>  pic.twitter.com/jvngV00bHs Permalink 3:59 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@StoolPoop I like that @nntaleb isnt left or right but rather local over global. I imagine he respects the harassing of pols in public. “Keep them close enough to kick them” Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn’t be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can’t people think in 1 ½ order effects? https://twitter.com/business/status/997061733566107649   Permalink 9:44 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 The idea to eat a plant-based diet is based on 2 mistakes. 1. Blaming meat for what ultra-processed foods did. 2. Blaming cholesterol for what insulin resistance did. Permalink 9:31 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To prove to Spyros I am really working on it, here is the paper in progress. Friends can help with typos. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 8:06 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is meta-Skin in the Game https://twitter.com/michaelbjacksa/status/1011639219998150656   Permalink 3:24 PM – 26 Jun 2018

@LucasVitorinoS3 ‘Homens fracos agem para satisfazer suas necessidades, homens fortes agem para cumprir seus deveres’ – @nntaleb Permalink 10:58 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@normonics If you’re concerned about what we’re doing to the climate by exposing it to a large amount of a non-novel agent You should be MUCH MORE concerned about GMO agr, as we are exposing ecosystems globally to massive amount of novel agents — including living ones that can replicate! Permalink 9:31 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Essay: Monsanto’s ghostwriting and strong-arming threaten sound science—and society http://www.ehn.org/monsanto-effort-to-skew-science-2581194459.html   Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The heuristic is, simply, production of a commodity / volatility, signal/noise and you can see how much additional discovery/supply matters. Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand that @JustinWolfers is just another academic living on charity; but surprised to discover that @neelkashkari is head of a Fed and doesn’t realize that existing gold stock is monstrous in relation to production. Who put him there? Permalink 5:26 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Quant Finance researchers meet Medicine Quants today: pic.twitter.com/4P99A33mVR Permalink 3:36 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Antigragility: my lecktchur in 2 hours https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1011244554622676992   Permalink 12:52 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These idiots have never traded gold and seen forward contracts sold by producers. Permalink 12:46 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In fact unlike with money supply, gold miners are distributed and in competition. Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These 2 clueeeeeeeeless economists have no idea that the competitive mahket values gold in the ground as an asset with optionality. I mean clueeeeless. @JustinWolfers is particularly ignorant of everything. https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1011309709012488193   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@d_a_n Some things don’t scale. Consider how you react to a car blocking the road. Small community – I get out, say hi, ask if help is needed, chat happily for 30 mins City – I hoot, swear, call the cops, maybe resort to road rage (thanks to @nntaleb for the insight) Permalink 9:30 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As I said the English “commoners” accept their GENETIC inferiority to the aristocracy but these hypocrites go on talking about political correctness with other commoners. Disgusting. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1010121158233116674   Permalink 9:26 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Background and solution pic.twitter.com/kEkc0xx98H Permalink 7:38 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@catoletters Robert Mueller was the biggest obstacle for Sept. 11 families who wanted to sue Saudi Arabia https://washex.am/2lodyqk   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Syrian Christianity, something 1300 years of Arab rule didn’t do; Remember Christianity was born there, the NT was in the Greek of Antioch. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-24/ben-rhodes-admits-obama-armed-jihadists-syria-bombshell-interview   Permalink 6:16 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mini-Lecture (5 min) today at BBQ (Bloomberg Quant Seminar) in Honor of Rabbi “Tony” Glickman, 1950-2018. “Life is Long Gamma” @DaliaGlickman pic.twitter.com/QKyjXvGnVJ Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb BTW to understand what is called “GMO”, see this http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BCfzvMNc19″>  pic.twitter.com/BCfzvMNc19 Permalink 4:10 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A Canadian brewer, @SteamWhistle is being harrassed by shills for listing “GMO free” on its beer. Turned out it is illegal in Canada to say “GMO free” (without some disclaimer): who wrote that law? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1011197845578436608   Permalink 3:44 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@jj_mllr New Blogpost: How two tweets about a simple coin toss experiment by @drob and @nntaleb can cause an academic existential crisis: Coin Tosses, Markov Chains, and an Existential Crisis. https://correlaid.org/blog/posts/markov-chains   Permalink 2:40 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after 6 ½ years, someone found a mistake in Antifragile. Will correct ASAP. The ancients had a color for blue. All references on that are wrong. https://twitter.com/Shuwen22973519/status/1011008301549674496   Permalink 3:13 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Prove that limit Gamma[n,n]/Gamma[n]=½ as n->infinity pic.twitter.com/LL5XJpn9P6 Permalink 2:36 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Accidentally stumbling on a helpful identity on a Sunday morning… pic.twitter.com/7hrrm634r5 Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Big Ag using financially insecure journos/”sci communicators” to sell: GMO/Glyphosate = science HENCE technosalvation (pedophrasty: only they can help “starving children” ) Anecdote = “evidence based” Bezos got that better food distribution >>technoBS https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1010659272756088832   Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@NicuMihalache #skininthegame, the book by @nntaleb starts gently and rather predictably for those familiar with the Incerto series (and his Medium articles https://medium.com/@nntaleb  ) then it takes you for a series of spins so that you want to tweet every other paragraph Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb MONSANTO Charlatan Watch: ask BS vendor @mark_lynas to produce systematic safety studies. Also ask him why he is in favor of both GMOs and Glyphosate (except that GMOs are an excuse to >3x pesticides & fry your soil). Charlatan! https://www.wsj.com/articles/confession-of-an-anti-gmo-activist-1529679465   via @WSJ Permalink 4:54 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@HypPioneer @nntaleb weighs in scam artists exploiting children to get what they want politically (open borders, war, etc.): https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 4:35 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ralph Nader Asks Former First Ladies: Why No “Heartfelt Concern for Tens of Thousands of Children Killed or Seriously Maimed” by Their Husbands’ Wars? – https://goo.gl/z4Ydz5   via @commondreams Permalink 3:18 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb All East Med citizens are nervously waiting for the selection of the new Byzantine Emperor. Permalink 3:42 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@thomas_quinlan Today’s word of the day: pedophrasty — the use of pictures of suffering children to advance an agenda. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-23/obama-kept-them-cages-pedophrastry-politicians-exposed   This story via @zerohedge but term coined by the brilliant @nntaleb, here: https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Let me dispell some mistakes. Do not conflate farniente with laziness. In the Med, idleness is never a virtue unless the person gets rich or does great things while exercizing it. That’s the difference with other cultures both further North and further South. Gabish? Permalink 12:06 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@ErwanLeCorre Ethically-evolved sports will avoid micro-agressions, turn sports fields into safe spaces. Next progress: kill the social-construct which is “competency.” The ultimate step: competition is elitist and inherently discriminatory. No more losers: EVERYONE WINS. pic.twitter.com/ODXHngjQl8 Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Visually. We can also count the triangles pic.twitter.com/4AIJncTcRo Permalink 10:15 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@_benoux_ Exactly! I also like the clear distinction of @nntaleb on Sophrosyne (σωφροσύνη) vs. Rationality based on “graphs”, “facts” and “evidence”, all based on current state. Current state – one day – will collapse. It’s hybris to act on the presumption of immortality. pic.twitter.com/tqjX3d4x0C Permalink 10:04 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor. Permalink 5:54 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Laura, but Naples for me is not monuments for tourists, but 1) narrow streets with laudry hanging from the window, 2) a f*** you attitude that permeates the place, 3) A (tiny) remaining Greek-Orthodox minority… pic.twitter.com/yRV259U1up Permalink 5:49 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, fughotaboud Genova, better choice than Venice. You need to find a place WITHOUT Goethe-inspired visiting Northerners who don’t know what sitting at a terrace doing absolutely nothing means. These include de-Mediterranized Northern Italians. Permalink 4:01 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It always depends on the terrace. And I prefer Naples or Palermo. https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1010212840505069569   Permalink 3:50 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@GuyMorant Attention manipulation. Le génial essayiste Nassim Taleb partage un cas troublant d’utilisation d’une photo d’enfant pour court-circuiter la réflexion. “Pédophrastie”, retenez ce terme. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1010262470806659076   Permalink 10:54 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember that just as surgeons don’t look like surgeons strong men don’t look like athletes in ancient Greek sculptures. pic.twitter.com/VJSlKH3ZXx Permalink 2:44 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Which is why it was necessary to coin the term “pedophrasty”. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1010121223206993920   Permalink 1:45 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/860823348238061570   Permalink 1:17 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It continues… Mistake: he didn’t realize that people who really lift weights (instead of using machines) don’t have a thin waist. (cont) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1010214913627828230   Permalink 1:16 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. pic.twitter.com/3E29W3pr5u Permalink 12:37 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Never speak ill of the dead. But one can stay silent about him if he CAUSED deaths. If he advocated the Iraq War/WMD nonsense, then without REPENTANCE, another regime change/war, one must stay silent. For extreme cases: damnatio memoriae יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ Permalink 8:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People here aren’t getting the aberration: +Book written in US; author in US; publisher in US; readers (of US edition) in US. +Printed in China <=> Chinese censorship. +Publishers & Authors find this NORMAL. This is one side of Globalism Globalists need to explain. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Note that my problem with Chinese printers was resolved amicably (they accepted) but I am SHOCKED that no other author had the guts to stand up to the weirdness Chinese censorship of a US book by a US author. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 6:34 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If BS Vendor Pinker’s @sapinker’s book was a scientific paper, it would have been retracted. Pinker has not answered question w/@DrCirillo : Why is he making Richardson say something OPPOSITE to what he said? All his “evidence” reposes on that. pic.twitter.com/75WpSF8Hi0 Permalink 5:31 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@Zilvera1 Brilliant van @nntaleb over salafisme.The bureaucrats and representatives of the“elites” (Van Aartsen) are fooled by the label. They treat Salafism as just a religion –with its houses of “worship” — when in fact it is just an intolerant political system. https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 5:10 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@market_fox An example of why “doctors should not look like doctors” @nntaleb http://webuser.bus.umich.edu/dsosyura/Research%20Papers/FamilyDescentDec2016.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3HFYZhkFxR”>  pic.twitter.com/3HFYZhkFxR Permalink 4:13 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To summarize thread above, rationality is not about “beliefs” but actions, #SkinInTheGame. It is not scientific to evaluate raw “beliefs”. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/KhOyJPJYkm Permalink 2:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@z3nblack Sometimes I find @nntaleb is standing against an army on his own. Then again, I realize these battles are not fought with guns or swords. One can project the power (& refinement) of their mind against the many, & the numbers *against* don’t matter. Interesting times to be alive. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009778944344776704   Permalink 2:39 PM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with Charlatan @SamHarrisOrg is that he talks about “rationality” without even remotely knowing what it means. Charlatan. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 11:56 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@TMFStoffel This excerpt from @JohnCarreyrou’s Bad Blood shows Elizabeth Holmes carrying out a version of @nntaleb’s *Pedophastry* Dubious claims of a heinous act that are a smokescreen and weaken claims of real victims https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dh32aC4uCG”>  pic.twitter.com/dh32aC4uCG Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Christianity is not *only* 2000 y old. It is a mutation of >4K y of Mediterranean-Anatolian creeds, mysteries, and mythologies. And its structure dates from the early Roman republic. Atheism has no #Lindy to build on, continue and progress from. https://twitter.com/Judgementional/status/1009777859769131008   Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@ggreenwald Is there any benefit or value at all in inquiring why these sorts of abuses generated so little attention and anger pre-2017, or should we just go ahead and ignore that question? See also: https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/KIND%20-%20Betraying%20Family%20Values.pdf   https://twitter.com/McClatchyDC/status/1009771953597624320   Permalink 5:19 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan. 1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect. 2 Imposture “neuroscientist” when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*? https://twitter.com/Tweetsintoabyss/status/1009755755837194241   Permalink 4:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Haha! https://twitter.com/ChielMuurling/status/1009746908682874885   Permalink 3:38 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get that Christianity is about church!= state https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 3:24 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Arabism and the bigoteering by Arabists. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ayMK7md7B6″>  pic.twitter.com/ayMK7md7B6 Permalink 3:13 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish. 2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/Gore_Burnelli/status/1009734775236677632   Permalink 3:10 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams” https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 1:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@rbarilla Maybe you still don’t “get” it. Without a proper vocabulary to describe unethical behavior, people cannot easily call out charlatans who exhibit such behavior. Given all of Taleb’s work, charlatans can now more easily be called out, including ourselves. Permalink 11:18 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams” https://medium.com/p/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   Permalink 12:26 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here is the text by Peter Henry Fonda https://twitter.com/ElenaHaskins/status/1009470781456183296   Permalink 9:23 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember the principle that we shd ignore actors’ own words, only listen to them when they mindlessly recite words written by pple with higher capacities of reasoning, when they impersonate much worthier humans. For the Romans, actors were the lowest form of human life. https://twitter.com/iamfonda/status/1009311889472421888   Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The paper with the initial results of the M4 Competition (with a small typo) can be found in the link https://www.scribd.com/document/382185710/IJF-Published-M4-Paper   It can be also found in Science Direct shortly in the link https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.001   Good reading and apologies for the short delay. @robjhyndman Permalink 7:25 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A false accusation of rape has the side effect of inducing skepticism, causing genuine accusations to be taken less seriously. You are also harming the true victims. Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A light sentence is not sufficient. Under Hammurabi’s code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator. https://nyp.st/2tlIrz6   via @nypost Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Research by salaried laborers is becoming a rent-seeking citation ring consisting of large scale imitative rituals, with a decreasing number of results, an increasing cluelessness of participants, and a multiplication of useless rules. Permalink 5:45 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The antifragility from fragility equation! https://twitter.com/shaarsh2/status/1009415062287736833   Permalink 5:43 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@rma_adler @nntaleb Fantastic book, now my favorite gym shirt (self-designed). Best… pic.twitter.com/Dwc5kliWhx Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@ektrit Factual persecution of Christians now enshrined in Canadian Law. https://twitter.com/LifeSite/status/1009394685771767810   Permalink 4:17 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman discussing the replication crisis: “There are 1 million scientific publications per year. Do we have one million scientific discoveries per year?” Permalink 3:57 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My new policy is to respond to 10% of offenses, but hit > 10x harder. Better than responding to half the offenses, but hitting the victim twice harder. Exception is when I want to kill time in airports. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009102652532240385   Permalink 1:29 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb With the statistical vigilante, the great Andrew Gelman and Joshua Miller @jben0 pic.twitter.com/iIqZZzcIJb Permalink 12:54 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@sahouraxo The war criminal who oversaw the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children, separating them from their families forever, now wants us to believe that he suddenly cares about children. https://twitter.com/billclinton/status/1008379614908035073   Permalink 11:06 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Work with @spyrosmakrid on weather/climate https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1009019563923697664?s=21   Permalink 5:37 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Excellent news! Now if someone labels you as “Islamophobe” for opposing Salafinazism, you can sue. But try to squeeze more, a lot more out of them. https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1008724249794826246   Permalink 4:10 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@drjohnm @EJSMD has called the #COI of clinicians being employed one of the greatest COIs. < As @nntaleb wrote about, if you want to own someone, employ them. Recently heard in the doctor’s lounge: “Shh. they are listening.” Said in jest but… https://twitter.com/RogueRad/status/1009024816463142912   Permalink 3:51 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This idiot @matt_blackwell is a pol “scientist” doing “statistics” & didn’t get that news isn’t spreading because a minor actress is complaining abt her car being burned, but because @Tesla. Would the news spread if it were one of the other 180K? #IYI https://twitter.com/matt_blackwell/status/1008858264933666817   Permalink 3:43 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) There is this myth of “long run” data is thin tailed because of aggregation and “Central Limit”. A lot of BS. Just like “democracy”, “populism”, “racism”,”enlightenment”, the term “Central Limit” is uttered by parrots clueless of what they are talking about. pic.twitter.com/ZkDr8kuyHs Permalink 3:14 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) There are tests to see how Central Limit works: Summing data (say weekly returns) should produce thinner tails. Not the case. pic.twitter.com/nFLqRpOet0 Permalink 3:07 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Nice example of #SkinInTheGame https://twitter.com/alanshearer/status/1008826999526346752   Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Page 2, luckily there is no picture of me this time. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1008706906490273792   Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Thanks Shant. I am tired of people who come to my twitter account, dedicated to BS busting, expecting to hear some feel-good motivational sh*t. Permalink 7:46 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Milke Lawler @mikeandallie has done a grrrrrrrreat job explaining the Central Limit BS to his children. Preasymtotic behavior is CENTRAL. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1008134655424565254   Permalink 6:30 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is the kind of JUNK that has destroyed firms, social science/economics. CLT works at various speeds under fat tailed distributions. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   cc:@spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/theoremoftheday/status/1008698630033854465   Permalink 6:24 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you are trained/selected to think in Static terms. pic.twitter.com/ObaRcQKqRJ Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a counterintuive property, an illustration of why you need to use DYNAMIC thinking into things that are dynamic, not STATIC. (cont) https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/1008327243280670720   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 2 types of pple: Those who think in STATICS, those who think in DYNAMICS. Problem w/”intellectuals” & other idiots like @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein who become policymakers is that they can’t think in 2nd steps. Schools mismeasure intelligence w/low dimensional tests. pic.twitter.com/0Pl8LckQWJ Permalink 3:31 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule: the more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say anti-racism, anti-sexism), the more they will be used as a cover for unethical actions. Moral: remove all diversity rules for the sake of diversity. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1008476181425893378   Permalink 2:33 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@AllonMessenberg My father always said: “If you go to work every day, you have no time to make money!” Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@MisterNuance Zakaria is a textbook example of what @nntaleb warns about: a fake “expert” who pays no price for being wrong. https://twitter.com/fareedzakaria/status/1007448216210731008   Permalink 11:09 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 150K-200K car fires per annum. You take one event & an emotional statement of an actress & turn it into a statement about the safety of @Tesla. And this is 2018. I am blocking any commentator who doesn’t get it. In this and other similar situations. Finito. Permalink 8:08 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath … a counterintuitive property of coin-tossing: If Alice tosses a coin until she sees a head followed by a tail, and Bob tosses a coin until he sees two heads in a row, then on average, Alice will require four tosses while Bob will require six tosses … https://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/1008231518324617216   Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Proper approach: count the rate of these things for @Tesla, compare to other auto-makers, & adjust by other safety statistics. I can’t believe that 18 years after Fooled by Randomness this type of bulls**t is still rampant. Another rule: Never listen to actors except on acting. https://twitter.com/marycmccormack/status/1007831286176571394   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2-a) Every time I return from the W. Med it hits me there is *something* intense & sophisticated that’s different in the E. Med (i.e.,+Armenia/Georgia), reported since Byzantium. Turned out: The SILK ROAD & that Persian thingy Convinced @PZalloua to read @peterfrankopan’s book. Permalink 2:46 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is no argument in favor of pedophrasty that is not pedophrastic. (Circularity). https://twitter.com/elaines2cents/status/1008149614602514432   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) One only criterion for (material) success: not having a schedule. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Barbara @chicaderock, please read books BY Seneca, who was the real thing (a doer), not something ON Seneca by some library rat with a modern perspective. They will miss something essential. https://twitter.com/chicaderock/status/1008055357141405697   Permalink 12:05 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Moronic @hardsci, just 1 and we know which one it is. https://twitter.com/hardsci/status/1008036534614835205   Permalink 12:00 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that any argument (such as the one now used for illegal immigration) that is supported by pictures/narratives of children is called PEDOPHRASTY. Actually, use of children should weaken an argument. pic.twitter.com/qZ7Qn5pHN2 Permalink 6:48 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes pic.twitter.com/u4QKlVPV2I Permalink 4:13 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The carpenter fallacy: do you hire a carpenter to understand the odds of a sequence at the roulette table? Or a probabilist? Moral: the more advanced a nondeterministic science the more it becomes the domain of the applied probabilist. Genetics is a probabilty problem. Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) The geneticist Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia, with Mount Lebanon in the background. THREAD: on the carpenter fallacy in genetics to follow. pic.twitter.com/EVVw9sUHvw Permalink 2:08 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@ThePradosh When you are halfway through #JackDaniels & start to read work by @nntaleb, you realize what #Millennials are truly are. #bedofprocrustes pic.twitter.com/aGyBVJzaom Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Convexity in Medicine: How Pharma cheats with the “evidence” (aside from P-hacking) cc:@MichaelSagnerMD pic.twitter.com/ONl8EUkx7t Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Just a reminder that Noah Smith @Noahpinion is a a pure BS Vendor before you read him on anything related to anything (s.a. Theranos & Skin in the Game). Gabish? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   Permalink 10:00 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The best surprise: a brand new gym in a converted mansion that belonged to a cousin of mine… pic.twitter.com/rLeJtOX9wi Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2/2 There are high demands to perform, indeed! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1007293724999733248   Permalink 6:16 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK. I found a local gym with barbells & a squat rack. Rushing there. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1007292750818168832   Permalink 6:14 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We should de-anonymizing the “peer-review” process: referees can be harmfully stupid or vicious w/o accountability. This idiot tried to reject paper w/@DrCirillo because he couldn’t translate that 4 page 8½ by 11 compressed 1-spaced =12 pages double-sp 6½ by 9. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/9wzwdtthZw Permalink 4:26 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Further, the same applies to “arm” and “hand”. pic.twitter.com/TZO2wuNtU5 Permalink 2:37 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The plot thickens: In Greek leg and foot are also πόδι, In Farsi both پا, but there is a more marked difference in Romance languages (gamba/piede) although pes in Latin can mean both. Permalink 2:31 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Like Phoenician, Aramaic, & Hebrew, the Lebanese lang. still uses the same word (ijr, rgl) for foot and leg in spite of 170 years of (failed) Arabization (foot in Arabic is قدم). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1007356478733410305   Permalink 12:48 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@oneraindrop A complex system has failed to act as expected by its designers, but has instead exhibites behavior that no one expected it to exhibit pic.twitter.com/gkPiDviKMX Permalink 7:17 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@thyagjs An important point from the SITG book by @nntaleb For those who do things, it is harder to talk about what they do. Reality doesn’t care about tawk. It is full of pauses and hesitations. Clear, non-hesitant speech is the domain of non-doers. Permalink 6:36 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 Here’s the most famous nutritionist in America, Walter Willett of Harvard, defending the use of seed oils, saying that new data that says they’re unhealthy isn’t relevant. Good example of why I no longer listen to these people. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/2016/04/13/diet-heart-ramsden-mce-bmj-comments/   Permalink 5:56 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb On the main difference between East Med and West Med (except for Provence) called here “milk of lions”. pic.twitter.com/scFhUxQZ6O Permalink 9:35 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot separate the Med diet from frequency. 1-FASTING Greeks were vegan 210 days. 2-Meat was eaten at festivals, in Yuge quantities, mostly FAT 3-Breakfast is a recent invention 4-“Dinner”=mostly mezze 5-Byphasic sleep 6-Hill/stairs climbing all the time 7-No seed oil Permalink 8:56 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Main lesson from the retraction (NEJM paper on Med diet): + Medicine is mostly (nonstandard) statistics + Medicine is abt convex dose-response NO expertise in biology/medicine will make up for it. PS- My paper on frequency/convexity in medicine was accepted. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/suvyboy/status/1007279809804857344   Permalink 8:29 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In Northern Phoenicia for the Weekend. Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, the real story is that @KarlreMarks was caught plagiarizing, then reacted exactly like a real plagiarist: he followed the maximally dishonorable route, digging then digging more. Permalink 2:53 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A new argument https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/1007028215343394816   Permalink 2:23 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite. Permalink 1:41 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here it is https://twitter.com/EmirChaabane/status/1007155547693633536   Permalink 12:02 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@sergioschloros This expression is recorded by in Homer “The proper meaning of ἀνανεύειν is to express dissent or refusal by throwing back the head, opposed to “κατανεύειν”, the corresponding gesture of assent or permission by nodding and bowing the head” http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0055%3Abook%3D9%3Acommline%3D468   Permalink 10:36 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb “τσου” as the Mediterranean “no”: A sound like “ts” (sucked lip) , coupled with a single nod, meaning “NO” (& a certain familiarity with the interlocutor). J2 Haplogroup countries: Phoenicia, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Sicily, Calabria, Western Syria. Any other? Permalink 10:30 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I thought I was the only one to call low IQ tawkers low IQ tawkers. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1006833565022031873   Permalink 8:19 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@financequant Wow! Opioids turned out to be addictive. Something we thought known for millennia but was, in fact, cleverly hidden by Big Pharma, probably in collusion with the FDA. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1006891422899949568   Permalink 7:59 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@primalpoly This @Harvard president’s email to alumni defends discrimination against Asian applicants, in the name of promoting ‘diversity’. How will this read in 20 years? http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/harvard-begs-to-discriminate.php?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=sw&utm_campaign=sw   Permalink 6:08 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, “no” in Maltese, Sicilian, Lebanese, and various other Med languages is “tsk” Permalink 3:18 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only in Sicily. The same hotel is famous both for housing R. Wagner when he finished Parsifal and for hosting a decisive mafia convention — in addition to being a preferred spot for various improvised and less improvised “meetings”. pic.twitter.com/0tswQH8I04 Permalink 12:55 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/MimeticValue/status/1006595643467431936   Permalink 2:07 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L3ayno zghiré ma bi kabbér, L3ayno kbiré ma bi zaghgher. Permalink 2:00 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L zghir ma bi kabbérak w l kbir ma bi zaghghrak. Permalink 11:15 AM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Taxi driver to Malta’s airport: Where are you flying to? Me: Palermo. Driver: vacation? Me: No. Meeting. Silence the rest of the journey. Permalink 1:49 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Interesting. Because it is true. https://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986737264041578496   Permalink 12:21 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Returnless Risk? pic.twitter.com/ObgzkPbhfJ Permalink 8:28 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 6) To understand the Romans, essential Meds, who shunned doing things themselves but praised builders: “Caesar pontem fecit” means Ceasar *had a bridge built* (by others), not “built a bridge” as usually translated. Tr. into French would be “a fait bâtir un pont” not “a bâti”. Permalink 12:45 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Strange absence of Arabian genes (Nabatean, North & South), though possible flow from Maghrebis. Some Phoenician/Anatolian/Greek. Will increase sample & look at more sophisticated maps but still. pic.twitter.com/5VCaUZMc6k Permalink 2:47 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The main difference is gh is pronounced 3, h with a bar=7, q = 2, x=sh … My only mistery: how did barra/juwwa get to them from Aramaic? Unless @safaitic is right and the Arabs who took the Maghreb spoke a branch of safaitic pic.twitter.com/OXF5J0Ce0c Permalink 1:08 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb He seems to be playing the agency problem of bureaucrats. People w/#SkinInTheGame are more interested in their fridge than remote (or even less remote) geopolitics & willing to settle w/peace as the default preference. Governments & bureaucrats have exact opposite preferences. https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1005795015287767046   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@JSuchJ “True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.” Great life insight from @nntaleb foreword to Ed Thorp’s A Man for All Markets pic.twitter.com/fTcqE88T0T Permalink 4:10 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Amos Tversky, the research partner of Kahneman, remarked that he “merely studied in a systematic way things about behaviour that were already known to advertisers and used-car salesmen”. #Lindy Evil nudgeboys Thaler-Sunstein do the exact opposite. https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/1338695   Permalink 3:53 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Now the mystery: there were a lot of Maltese-Lebanese trading families in Leb: +Abella, Sabella, Mamo, Camilleri, Aquilina, Borg (Borji), Mcallef +SALIBA in both (my mother’s original last name is Ghosn Saliba, not Ghosn) Phoenician practice to trade w/cousins across Med ? Permalink 1:55 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mr President, we shall start the invasion at 1400 hours. https://twitter.com/stevept/status/1005484647688491009   Permalink 4:19 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@trishankkarthik Once you come to #RWRI, you will never see the world the same way again @financequant @nntaleb https://twitter.com/l0bbelt/status/1005560429400264704   Permalink 2:28 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@normonics I like to say: GMO is like everyone in the world crossing the street together at the same time Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 5) Another reason there large entities don’t work in the Med, causing a scale problem: you cannot be alpha if you are not free & self-employed (or the boss), an employee of Goldman Sachs is of a lower status than a local doctor. Permalink 11:22 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can tell Maltese is a bit more Arabic than Lebanese: ecclesiatical & nonArabic Semitic terms are often from Latin/Italian whereas Leb uses Aramaic (Ġesù not Yasu3, Eva not 7awwa…) Means Maltese didn’t have these words in their corpus, which must have been Siculo-Arabic. Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) For instance to be Med you need to both disrespect hard work and respect success, exactly the opposite of the “work ethics” & the worship of labor in the non-necessarily Prostestant North. Permalink 9:44 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@Safaitic @nntaleb is on point. Stories of a grand Yemeni-Arab exodus following the collapse of the Marib dam are simply mythology. In no other field are legends taken at such face value. The term “Arab” and “Arabic” were appropriated and reimagined by Islamic-period writers to refer(cont. Permalink 3:00 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge: Pinning Beginning (i.e., past) and End (i.e., present) and looking at probabilities of what could have happened in between is very, very useful in GENETICS and LINGUISTICS. Even if you don’t have the exact proba, you get the structure. My solution here. pic.twitter.com/qGs50urYrC Permalink 2:11 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Which means the 2aysi( qaysi)-Yamani fights could be infighting, a division that mimics the Byzantine Green-Blue one –the Druze are almost entirely Anatolian, genetically closest to Kurds. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qays–Yaman_rivalry   Permalink 1:41 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is (in history textbooks) a story of Peninsular tribes settling into Lebanon (largely from Yemen). But genetics don’t show it: the Yemen story is a fabrication. Now @Safaitic is hinting that these tribes were from the Southern Levant. This can explain linguistic puzzles. https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1004991524944449536   Permalink 1:33 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The French have tried to become Meds for 2000 years. They can’t: except for spots, Germanics speaking a Latin language. Permalink 2:45 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Point is; if you’re not Med, you’ll never understand the Mediterranean. You can spend 31 y in Oxford reading “classics”, all that sh*t, & still understand nothing about the Mediterranean. Now, if you’re not Med, the closest you’ll ever get is via squid ink & Moustaki. Salve. Permalink 2:40 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Malta pic.twitter.com/36QTR8UZMc Permalink 12:58 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@cindyturlevnon كل استاذ مدرسة بعيّط ع تلميذ و بيجبرو يقول نعم غلطان وبيكون عم يمارس تعنيف لغوي. نحنا بطور لڤنن رح نوزّع مناشير توعية للمدارس عن الالفاظ السريانية بلغتنا اللبنانية، كمان مندعي كل بي و ام ما يستخفوا بالإرث الكبير يلي اخدناه من السرياني لغة جدودنا. #TurLevnon pic.twitter.com/GE45AX4C7v Permalink 9:40 AM – 8 Jun 2018

Atlanta, Borat, Minority Rule, Monsanto, Ergodicity, Revolutions, Rationality, Armenians, Betrayal, Tesla, Fermat, @GadSaad | Twitter

@nntaleb OK OK La Grotta pic.twitter.com/2aFM44a2dW Permalink 5:47 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 75% of @newtgingrich’s book (from page 80 on) revolves around the Intellectual Yet Idiot IYI problem.https://twitter.com/AlexPappas/status/901171827799719936   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta coffee conversation w/ @geoffreydgraham @justinno @WhiteSwanof87 @su_js1 (a lot of coffee). pic.twitter.com/oLB5ayZFOR Permalink 10:10 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Logic of Risk Taking”https://medium.com/p/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Rephrase her question to “how many Greco-Roman classics were written by nonWhites” to”How many were written by blonds & nonMeds”.About zero. Permalink 3:08 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@lilbabykeffiyeh @nntaleb might have knowledge on this. Permalink 8:59 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@KennyAngel11 Nassim Taleb looked like Borathttps://abbeylink.wordpress.com/2017/08/24/nassim-taleb-looked-like-borat/   Permalink 12:54 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy Geopolitical Institutions conflate relations between countries with relations between governments @nntalebhttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 9:43 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Languages mutate. We can watch the process of mutation with out own eyes.https://twitter.com/BrittPettibone/status/900707817606094848   Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 2) People don’t get is that you don’t assess a car by *speed* but *change* in speed. (Second order effect, convexity = antifragile) Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Minority Rule actually debunks the Aryan vs Semitic theory. Meds are Meds, Nordics are Nordics https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fZYFV1dvUv”>  pic.twitter.com/fZYFV1dvUv Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta. Any recommendations? Squid ink, etc. Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you want people to pay close attention to your posts, block them on Twitter. Permalink 2:58 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fr: un clou en chasse un autre. Permalink 1:53 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Not a very good day to be Monsanto. An Italian proverb: one needs a nail to displace a nail. Companies, not govt, remove bad apples.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/900454905554579456   Permalink 1:43 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question. Permalink 12:57 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy History is largely peace punctuated by wars, rather than wars punctuated by peace @nntaleb cc: @SebGorkahttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Common sense wd say that if in the past censorship was seen as a thing of the “right”, those we really need to worry will be on the “left”https://twitter.com/julianassange/status/900308121024954370   Permalink 10:23 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Main advantage of Tesla: for daily life, we benefit more from acceleration (for safety) than max speed, since there are speed limits.https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/900106814187950081   Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@rmnth “I can use data to disprove a proposition, never to prove one.” ~ @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/ProfFeynman/status/900388591259353092   Permalink 9:17 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The bon pensant Cambridge dons… pic.twitter.com/NLnWyAbipV Permalink 5:57 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The central chapter of Skin in the Game: explaining ergodicity @ole_b_peters Is it easy to get? pic.twitter.com/g6dVDSRILG Permalink 2:18 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@HarrisonSearles The American empire cannot impose a top-down peace on Afghanistan. Peace can only come bottom-up. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   via @nntaleb Permalink 12:22 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Logical/statistical error: Revolutions are preceded by resentment, but resentment not nec. followed by revolutions. see #FooledbyRandomnesshttps://twitter.com/alrik3/status/900055165713166337   Permalink 11:13 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb For years I have refused to f. spell expletives in my book, e.g. “f*** you money”, etc. From now on, for consistency, will do so on Twitter. Permalink 10:49 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb She is using Twitter, and, I surmise, a computer and, I also surmise, software.https://twitter.com/greenwoodae/status/900033287648714752   Permalink 9:38 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Problem of the education system: bitter college profs & parasites of the system drill into the head of people that wealth = explotationhttps://twitter.com/DougMartin17/status/900028062200475649   Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There should be no privilege for being wealthy. But there should be no shame, no guilt for being wealthy.https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/899989870478856192   Permalink 8:57 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I support @PamelaGeller w/her censorship by PayPal. But she is v. IGNORANT: unlike Salafis, Shiites don’t Christians/Jews as “infidels”. Permalink 8:09 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb BS Busting Du Jour: More fundamental mistakes in Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci high noise /no signal account.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 7:34 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Arabic name for Med was “Baḣr er-Rum”, Roman(Byzantine) sea. Like Persian (->”Arabian”) Gulf, censored from textbooks. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@ExoThinker Your daily does of WTF: Nassim Taleb and other nerds discussing Talmud and Aramaic.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/899267232542453760   Permalink 10:50 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”https://medium.com/p/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”https://medium.com/p/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Is there a Ashura expert in the room? I wonder if my diacritical are right for the poem about skin in the game. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/8uXC3gnhJ4 Permalink 1:48 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Challenge a BSvendorusingscience who uses eclipse to make us believe we know climate: Predict temperature in NYC at 12:PM Oct 21 2017https://twitter.com/MuhammedKambal/status/899718155483979776   Permalink 12:53 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Typo! pic.twitter.com/718kTSNTTg Permalink 11:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb LESSON Looking like a “victim” will enbolden your enemies & make your cowardly friends look the other way. Wusses are never good to losers Permalink 10:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Quiz du jour a la @CutTheKnotMath @LorenzoWVilla pic.twitter.com/eSYgojapcs Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Incidentally, classical Arabic has a word, Wiq7, for both rude and right. Permalink 8:56 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@John07331405 It does mean u are rude, I think u are pretty rude. I also think you are right about everything (xcpt some comment a long tm ago about Eire) Permalink 8:24 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Average price/ average earnings != Average( If E>0, P/E)https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/899647893379756032   Permalink 8:17 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I don’t understand English Middle Class English. What does “You are rude” mean? Permalink 7:57 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In Levantine, 3a “to” is from Aramaic or older N Semitic. Arabic/ South Semitic equivalent is “ila”, similar to Heb “la”.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/899605015731601409   Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mary Beard retweets n accusations of “misogyny” & articles in press & claims she never accused me of “misogyny” Historians shdn’t Fabricate! Permalink 5:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This should refresh your memory. For a “historian”, you keep being caught with misrepresentations. pic.twitter.com/Wv4SlVoYoV Permalink 5:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@DaronLarson “Being nice to others reveals character if and only if it is optional.” @nntaleb #kindness #magnanimity Permalink 5:00 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb NOTHING academic in calling pple “misogynists” for dissenting, using Lewinski/Rowling & misrepresenting debate @wmarybeard you’re a shamhttps://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/899597706020007936   Permalink 4:52 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@jasperhamill I’ve seen people’s apologies used against them. Say sorry and you prove your guilt eternally. There is no forgiveness. Permalink 3:58 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Lesson I leared from UK thoughtnazis. Appease/correct them w/”I am not saying…”; they destroy you Be aggressive, disrespect: they freakout Permalink 3:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Evidence it is skin ink: stain on plates (and on your teeth), uneven coloring. Otherwise it is just dyed pasta.https://twitter.com/VinceBSbuster/status/899578318701416448   Permalink 3:28 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb A project is needed to bring back North Africa to its preArab Mediterranean kultchurhttps://twitter.com/xhos1982/status/899383122009223168   Permalink 2:34 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The patch in Northern Syria is gone. Because Obama. MSM are despicable. pic.twitter.com/ZdXdzpQHm9 Permalink 1:52 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Armenians have been victim of a second ethnic cleansing in Aleppo by Obama’s “rebels”. You need to call things by their name.https://twitter.com/humanitasromana/status/899370286231040002   Permalink 1:50 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Ron Paul @RonPaul Permalink 11:09 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Donald Trump’s @realDonaldTrump irreversible mistake: betrayal. You can recover from many mistakes. Betrayal you can only do once. Permalink 10:24 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Trying to explain what people don’t get about decentralization, why I loved Brexit! pic.twitter.com/QR87nNHHex Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Then here mistranslated should be “when a puny man kills a hero” pic.twitter.com/2gPFBzxVwa Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game is not literal, Bava Kama 84a 3ayn ta7ata 3ayn (incidentally, in Aramaic) pic.twitter.com/INkXFj60jT Permalink 6:49 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Unlike Klueless Massimo BSing on scientism, we ACTUALLY looked at what historical data can & cannot say. @DrCirillo https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Klueless Massimo doesn’t even know what SCIENTISM is. By masturbating w/other philosophers one can’t understand anything in the real world. Permalink 6:04 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My motto has always been: Debate the audience, not the person. Don’t even try to convince someone that he or she is wrong. Permalink 6:02 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Neither Antisemitic Nordic Supremacists Nor Arab Nationalists Will Like”https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@zzap Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s recent interview on work, slavery, and skin in the game on @EconTalker is sO good http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/08/nassim_nicholas_1.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8xDPmmMB11″>  pic.twitter.com/8xDPmmMB11 Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb One shall not use science outside the strict domains it itself defines. pic.twitter.com/4RrD9t9vQJ Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “In investments, better to sell out one year too early than one day too late.” My friend and banker Joe Audi Permalink 1:53 PM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why Ibn Khaldoun is not banned in Arabian countries? pic.twitter.com/LI5aSQQTXX Permalink 9:14 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@CharlieHoefer Nassim’s Aryan twitter followers are not happy with him this morning… Permalink 8:58 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb – L’intolleranza vince sempre: il dispotismo della minoranza http://wp.me/p56cLj-3eK   @vocidallestero Permalink 7:47 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb First week of @TeslaMotors. Great to have a gas station at home. MAIN DRAWBACK: no squeegee of windshield when you refill ! pic.twitter.com/JjpE9udB2Z Permalink 7:29 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Lebanese Arabists & Arab Nationalists Will Not Like”.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, point is Phoenicians were genetically close to Greeks. Are all other “White” Supremacists as stupid as you ? Permalink 6:02 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Nordic Supremacists Will Not Like”https://medium.com/p/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 5:28 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Catholic MEANS secular.https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 3:53 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You can see what killed Mediterraneanism, right there.https://twitter.com/BrilliantMaps/status/898850780333133824   Permalink 3:44 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Even his email was disabled by Google.https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/898730013037477889   Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Of course there are other options, s.a. Burkean “small c”, etc. But that’s not what I am trying to figure out. Permalink 6:37 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb MSM lies, smear Bannon. Bannon was against warmongers! In Syria, Afghanistan, etc. I vouch! He hates INTERVENTIONISTAS w/o #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/ezlmu9dsqC Permalink 4:09 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mediterraneanism pic.twitter.com/1SQaFR4KDc Permalink 3:44 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Which group best represent your political “orientation”? Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Was asked if am “right” or “left” +No power over citizens, neither Gov nor Corps +Local >Global (Federalism) +particular >Universal +1st Am. Permalink 9:49 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb How to make a weapons lobbying slush fund. No wonder @MiddleEastInst loves war in Syria. https://interc.pt/2vGw0jK   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qpdZQx1Y7I”>  pic.twitter.com/qpdZQx1Y7I Permalink 8:39 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb An illustration of the BIAS-VARIANCE tradeoff or why in some situations being “wrong” is better than being imprecise. (Superstitions) pic.twitter.com/GCSoTGcBg3 Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You detect Monsanto shills such as Folta (aside frm recent proof of payments): they supports BOTH GMOs & Glyphosate What connects the 2? Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There is nothing IRRATIONAL per se in “believing” in SANTA CLAUS @rorysutherland pic.twitter.com/MJyyRZlzAd Permalink 5:07 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Why “rationality” as described by unrigorous BS vendors is not compatible with axioms of rationality. No rationality without #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/KwD3IpnqFN Permalink 4:58 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fermat was an amateur, a side activity (he was a lawyer by day). He would have loved the endless supply of brainteasers from @CutTheKnotMathhttps://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/898216622447624192   Permalink 3:18 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Bye2tol 2el 2atil wbyemshe bi-jnezto “He murders then attends the funeral of his victims”https://twitter.com/alarabiya_eng/status/898268838239899649   Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mr Bianchi @WhitesPhD, no ad hominem for “Finance professors” is for bullshitters who 1) can’t “do”& trade, 2) can’t be scientists. Gabish? Permalink 1:01 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Notice that it was not terrorists but a van attacking people in #Barcelona. pic.twitter.com/L4VZC56BJY Permalink 11:23 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Salute to @GadSaad for having the highest of virtues: frankness & intellectual courage. Let’s support him in his fight for freedom of speech Permalink 10:17 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Living with an oversensitive BS detector pic.twitter.com/EwrehX7oLS Permalink 8:32 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “Would”. Same academics who were certain that “If Trump were elected…”https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/898202340791992320   Permalink 8:20 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@normonics is this about it? pic.twitter.com/NwKMvNenSS Permalink 7:15 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@tolzasso media bias: turn the discussion about representativeness in populations into a sexist attack by @nntaleb #wtfhttps://goo.gl/9741Fz   Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asinum fricat = الطنجرة لاقت غطاها Permalink 5:51 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asimum fricate, or, in Fat Tony’s language: bullshitter supports bullshitter.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/896025438694367233   Permalink 5:24 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words, it increases distances when they are small, and decrease the larger ones… Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Something about PCA analyses: they preserve order but may not scale distances properly, compared to differential entropy. @iosif_lazaridis pic.twitter.com/HYFVz4zI6L Permalink 5:00 AM – 17 Aug 2017

Best explanation of ergodicity by Sinai

Best explanation of ergodicity by Sinai.

“Suppose you want to buy a pair of shoes and you live in a house that has a shoe store. There are two different strategies: one is that you go to the store in your house every day to check out the shoes and eventually you find the best pair; another is to take your car and to spend a whole day searching for footwear all over town to find a place where they have the best shoes and you buy them immediately. The system is ergodic if the result of these two strategies is the same”


via https://www.facebook.com/pages/Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb

ERGODICITY: The Ergodic Property, a Simplified Explanation…

ERGODICITY: The Ergodic Property, a Simplified Explanation of the Most Important Property to Understand in Probability, in Life, in Anything.

You can estimate the life expectancy of a given single human that is, *over time*, using the average of all humans over a *given moment in time* (snapshot), by looking at a given day, say yesterday, the age of people who are alive/died, sometimes called a “cross-section”. The *time average* is similar to the *space average*. Otherwise it would be impossible to understand humans. Clearly, if there are a few 1000 year old persons in yesterday’s sample, you can assume that your great uncle might live that long, and delay plans for spending his inheritance.

A day in all the casinos should resemble the life of a given casino.

Likewise you can see how books, companies, etc. fare over time by taking a given snapshot, in the absence of systemic risks or contagions that effectively eliminate ergodicity.

Assuming ERGODICITY, we can look at nature, and consider the various species at a different stages in their cycles, and say that the future for a *given* species will “resemble” (that is for specific statistical properties) that of all other species.


Philosophically, the problem of (enumerative) induction is circumvented in our wisdom; we do not say “Greenspan never died” and infer that he could be immortal, so such wisdom includes the detection of ergodicity where applicable. But we fail to use it properly in social science because of BS-artists who use mechanistic statistics a-la-Pinker, with claims of the style “it never happened before” for a given company, asset class, etc.


This is much, much, much more technical, but we can go in the reverse direction: imply ergodiciy from long-term survival of a high dimensional system (say the planet), with no terminal blow-up. In the Precautionary Principle paper, we can use the argument of “absence of ruin” of the planet on a given day to assert ergodicity, i.e., to say that there are enough independent dynamics of sub-components on earth to warrant that had the earth produced systemic risks endogenously, it would have blown up already, on a single day. And we have several billion of such days! In other words, the Markov Chain does not produce absorbing states.


or, clearer,


via ERGODICITY: The Ergodic Property, a Simplified… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.