Tag Archives: Pedophrasty

Pedophrasty, BS Detection, IQ, White Supremacy, Weightlifting, Data Scientists, Behavioral Economics, SUNSTEIN, @TulsiGabbard, Plomin, Kazan, Matheux, Harari, Gelman, Quilletebeciles, Argentina

The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the “diversity” operators Medium

@nntaleb A sample of the fights between instructors https://twitter.com/diomavro/status/1143888289763647488?s=21 Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Scholarships are open for the Oct 28 session, RWRI 12 http://Www.realworldrisk.com PS @VergilDen is an instructor. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/784063189457797120 Permalink 10:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@NClibbens @nntaleb Cost and time estimates overrun. Where I have I read about that problem? #incerto https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1168853263900467200 Permalink 10:07 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@thousandairefx @nntaleb Rent seekers! https://twitter.com/JakeVeigelMD/status/1168918972055609344 Permalink 9:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@vvv_ilya A few months ago I’ve been traveling to CH considering the opening of a Swiss company. At the airport, I started reading Skin in the Game by @nntaleb and in a few mins met Mr. Taleb! Why I’m telling this story now? Because I just got YouHodler SA registered! It was a sign pic.twitter.com/THuxzDcmyx Permalink 8:09 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@GuruAnaerobic Tony Blair is a psychopath. He’s a psychopath with no shame. He’s a psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy, lying, psychopath with no shame and no morals. https://twitter.com/JonnyGeller/status/1168543086756188160 Permalink 7:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 25 years of Calabrese lessons, ~ 15 lessons a year. pic.twitter.com/fTVZ6JyS9u Permalink 6:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/JB_Goldstein/status/1168846225342435330 Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@noemie_issan J’adore quand @nntaleb insulte en français. Cela ne manque pas de sel “Con fini” est une de mes insules preferées, avec “imbécile heureux” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1168845474406785035 Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great news from this is that Malaysia is a Sunni majority country. Extremely encouraging. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1168052854638206976 Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Can “Yes” in Lebanese (mbala) is come from the Yes in Persian (بله) than the negation in Semitic: (“بلا”=”without”)? Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SITG is not just disincentives but, centrally, FILTERING. It bankrupts incompetent pple and remove them from the system so they stop harming others. https://twitter.com/BzhClair/status/1168541504710893568 Permalink 8:37 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Extreme Value Theory: How Pareto=> Fréchet, a simple demonstration. pic.twitter.com/zrkkykzL1z Permalink 7:20 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile it is all probabilistic so far. The Anatolian hypothesis is just much stronger. pic.twitter.com/3scUh6NXln Permalink 5:50 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 15 That Indo European languages were born in the Eurasian Pontic-Caspian steppes/Northern Caucasus. Much higher possibility they were born in East-Med, Anatolia. pic.twitter.com/avls6ZtvNS Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 4) The theory is that Aramaic entered Egypt with the Persians who used it as a lingua franca. But there were numerous pockets of Aramaic-writing Jews (hence other Levantines/Anatolians). But the DNA story makes everything else fragile! Permalink 4:17 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) Something for master historical detective @Safaitic to help us with. Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) Also further coincidences: that the DNA of the mummies is turning out to be Levantine/Anatolian, not Egyptian. And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian. Permalink 3:47 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Things I learned this year: There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic. I was wondering why Egyptian say “mayya” for water & other Levantinisms. pic.twitter.com/XYYcvIzaAD Permalink 3:16 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (“Zamat bi-risho” mush jéyé min rishé bass mnil seryéné “bi raso”, “rish”=ras.) Permalink 10:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Zamatna. Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@rorysutherland The reason this ergodicity thing is useful to marketers is that it explains why they often feel lonely: the managerial-financial aggregated snapshot view of a business lies at 90-degrees to the customer’s experience of a business over time. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1167775571268554752 Permalink 1:55 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Second version pic.twitter.com/G6JZ6DaGKF Permalink 1:51 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@vtchakarova The DNC would rather lose than nominate Tulsi Gabbard. ‘Gabbard actually has skin-in-the-game. She fought for — and earned — everything she’s achieved.’ cc @nntaleb #SITG #TulsiGabbard https://spectator.us/dnc-lose-nominate-tulsi-gabbard/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW”> pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW Permalink 1:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is there a nonBS education outside of STEM, say in the humanities? Yes, classical languages + Heb/Aramaic/Ar/Sanscrit. French used to select on skills in Latin, not just because of access to texts. It’s because to be really good at Latin one must have read of lot of #Lindy stuff. Permalink 2:26 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected finally. Thanks friends for the detection! pic.twitter.com/syjpKhIc02 Permalink 1:22 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Most influential story, heard when I was a beginning trader: Big trader M runs into a junior in the bathroom. M:”Whatyoudoing today?” “Just bought this bond, Broker A recommended it” M kept shouting “But he’s a f** broker, a f** broker” & fired the trader while in the bathroom. Permalink 12:40 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The #1 skill set is BS detection. Jaffer @Jaffer22915438 fughodaboudit because it is very, very natural to him. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1167119565106614280 Permalink 12:09 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another 2 mistakes: limits ->0 not 1. Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Oops. I changed symbols from \eta to \epsilon when I turned the page. Corrected pic.twitter.com/NFCepkfFbU Permalink 11:36 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Probability du jour: Why you can’t use regression with fat tails. Showing the biases in psychobullshit studies, among others. Added a section to my next book. For error correction. pic.twitter.com/T54cUxjj6v Permalink 11:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@TerrenceMaldick Reading indiscriminately > everything. Best @nntaleb advice ever is: fuck school, just go to a library and “freestyle read” to ur heart’s content. Why? Because reading pre-ordained books makes u only enjoy reading a LITTLE. Freestyle reading teaches u to LOVE reading. Amen Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Autocrat meant, initially, free. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1167726291430326272 Permalink 2:47 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb New section in book: Thin Tails + Fat Tails = Fat Tails, no matter the ratios in the mixing. pic.twitter.com/S3YutONHJs Permalink 2:31 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Typo: they are power law distributed low exponent <2. It is easy to find massaging in the data. Permalink 1:37 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@NealPortenza @nntaleb of all the things you’ve taught me (fat tails, barbell distribution, risk etc), the one thing I remain most grateful for? Squid ink. Allora… pic.twitter.com/kfejEs7k7l Permalink 12:52 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@ggalexsava pic.twitter.com/z2FOmcOda9 Permalink 11:57 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man The accuracy of a forecast is measured only in profits. #blackswanman #theblackswanman @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @HillaryClinton #forecasterrors #elections pic.twitter.com/4xiVxiiHOC Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Apprenticeship: law was not really a university thing. You learn working with doers. #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/nhLa0fa6ie Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Rossy CDG. pic.twitter.com/GFTlqAVA3t Permalink 4:55 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In matters of politics (and love), “never” means “soon”. https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1167384624554749952 Permalink 4:33 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Squared residuals reveal the Winsorizing. They are a power low but someone did something funny to the data. pic.twitter.com/cShdc0KfSD Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@Raddish27 @nntaleb jealous much? #Croatia #ink #Vrbosca pic.twitter.com/OQ2TOogfrQ Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Aug 2019

@BLebnene W hode kamen al3aab kruute bil Libnene: Le3beh 3a Krouteh, Zello ma T2ello, Min El Ghoul (ssuwar min Multiverse, Hamra). pic.twitter.com/GxbCpj3Bnd Permalink 8:15 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Here we go again. The replication crisis is now hitting IQ studies… Used the same approach as I did with fakescholar @sapinker, under recommendation by @yaneerbaryam: first use THEIR own data, then proceed to uncovering theoretical flaws. pic.twitter.com/kQQ3EwFcxh Permalink 1:28 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I find it EXTREMELY racist and offensive to group all non Northern Europeans, or people from non EU members as a single group of “minorities”, where one can substitute for another. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575 Permalink 11:43 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mystery solved. They “manufactured” IQ scores in the NLS79, from “correlation”. Data invalid, only acceptable one is WLS. pic.twitter.com/IrQz0Dtc3B Permalink 10:57 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who (thankfully) don’t know what Jesuitic casuistry is, see below. (BTW my father and grandfather were educated by Jesuits; it has been my dream —for years — to find a Jesuit casuist for a good Twitter fight). pic.twitter.com/HCVSE4eM41 Permalink 1:51 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Send me a photo?” There was a time my childhood, when Jesuit priests had 1) erudition, 2) scholarship, 3) knew science &, most of all, 4) When they engaged in *jesuit* casuistry, they were VASTLY more refined in argument: simply, they weren’t THAT easy to catch. Permalink 1:38 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Fake! St Augustine was a Med. He looked no different from any Sicilian or Maltese. Africa meant “Southern (West) Med”. https://twitter.com/JamesMartinSJ/status/1166701067595407361 Permalink 11:56 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Finally, the IQ question is far, far too simple! Someone incompetent massaged the data at some National Bureau in Washington & psychologists have been using it because it is more favorable to the IQ case. The NLS data is fake. See the blue, compared to Gaussian & Orange (WLS) pic.twitter.com/tVvZ4O9EFD Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Wiki explains Mutual Information more accurately. Key: it works under NONLINEARITIES. And it is additive. And it is concrete in a betting sense. And it is … ergodic! (Enters the Kelly criterion). pic.twitter.com/mDTYxHlG4F Permalink 7:16 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@thackerpd Exclusive: #Monsanto used former top DOJ official involved in Epstein deal to quash felony case by @adamzagorin & @schwellenbach via @YahooNews https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-monsanto-used-former-doj-lawyer-involved-in-epstein-case-to-quash-felony-charges-090028623.html #Monsanto just can’t stay out of the news. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA”> pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA Permalink 6:08 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb >150 million “Europeans” are Meds. Meds are a different group. https://twitter.com/Philosophy_Net/status/1166677480305909760?s=20 Permalink 4:51 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The term “white supremacy” is a terrible misnomer; 1) white is indicative of purity not color & 2) does not map to what is called “white” (Caucasian/Western Eurasian) or light skinned (many Asians are light skinned), only to NorthWestern Europe. Best term as replacement: Permalink 4:25 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Also, from Zakorsky’s data, turns out that I was correct (in spite of blog posts by incompetent “data scientists”): Correlation is much lower for higher income. Actually not existent. pic.twitter.com/USGKIQHcDY Permalink 4:03 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@arrington “If your anger decreases with time, you did injustice; if it increases you suffered injustice” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:26 PM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Now entropy methods, Mutual Information, i.e. “how much does someone’s IQ tell you about his/her wealth or income?” or “how much more can you bet on Wealth knowing IQ or vice versa). Answer: “zero”. pic.twitter.com/aw5JeeDoXq Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb On the NY-Continent flight, only 6-7 h.: people eat dinner, then 4 hours later, are served breakfast “so they get strength”. You even have to request explicitly that they do NOT wake you up for breakfast. Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1166093473910415360 Permalink 3:32 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In real weightlifting (no-machines), you largely work out your neural system. It requires yuuuge concentration to push a piece of metal over your head. & it is exhilarating, like a street fight. Low-intensity “routines” on gym treadmills dull your mind, turn you into an academic Permalink 2:30 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am intolerant of BS vendors, even when they are right. And always tolerant of scholars, even when they are wrong. Permalink 1:35 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at the NLS used by Zagorsky, thanks to Beyon Miloyan. Data is invalid, though results similar to ones from WLS. IQ is truncated, income is cooked up. People in Finance learn how to ferret out statistical cooking in <9 minutes of examination. pic.twitter.com/oRAYJM616p Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And the jacknife shows my data is clean. pic.twitter.com/dScs8mKiat Permalink 4:01 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And minutes later, Donaldo got into negotiation mode! https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1166007859064266755?s=20 Permalink 3:20 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@ahshoja Is @realDonaldTrump getting advice from @nntaleb or reading @nntalebbot? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864?s=21 Permalink 1:15 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@NonMeek .@otrasenda_AC @trishankkarthik @nntaleb @Vasilis48814362 Finally found the time to finish what I promised: “Oliver & Trishank vs Skinny IYI Zombies [#ZIYI].” My interpretation I hope you like it. pic.twitter.com/6ymiRNUxuG Permalink 9:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 9:36 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The best so far! Incentives for peace not tawk! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864 Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS #peace #Vienna #Iran #Hayek #Popper #Freud pic.twitter.com/E7WPHX4S83 Permalink 7:16 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kamén la nfham 3a ba3dan: manna jéyin la n7ké bi shi illa l-lgha. Ma fi 3ila2a bi shghlé l téné (w ktbé). https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1165875395666874369 Permalink 6:12 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Now thanks to raw data, I am uncovering something >> more sinister in IQ research. When the slope is + but R^2 is terrible they only show the slope. When R^2 is high but the slope is ~0, they show R^2. When both are bad, they truncate the data, which increases R^2. Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1165945723587895297?s=20 Permalink 5:22 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just to confirm, the thread by a few IQ “data scientists” (who don’t understand R^2) nitpicking my piece is BS. All noise. https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1165925167798710272?s=20 Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who think behavioral economics has been “helpful” (outside consulting fees), some news. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400?s=20 Permalink 3:49 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb To express the trade-off from iatrogenics in a simple heuristic: Take no medicine that does not make you live longer. #antifragile Permalink 3:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Status is zero-sum game. Money is not in free economies. https://twitter.com/naval/status/1165834035601362945 Permalink 12:46 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@MulusewGerb Our 3rd Scientific colloquium titled ‘Antifragile and health care system in Ethiopia’ will be held in October. The idea is based on seminal work of @nntaleb and our speaker will b @MillaAugestine. @Elias_Yesuf @LegeseDadi @ateklu72 #missitnot #antifragile #robustness Permalink 11:47 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Tabula rasa. Let us say someone zapped all books and papers published since 1900 in psychology. Everything. Would it carry the smallest negative impact on your life? Permalink 3:50 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Today’s blog -> Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/ #math #mathchat Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb SUNSTEIN, my model for the IYI, w/the rigor of an artichoke. Master BS busting applied statistician Andrew Gelman has been dunking on him. At the bottom, Sunstein believes research in psychology should be like a business franchise, to defend by all means. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/08/24/more-on-why-cass-sunstein-should-be-thanking-not-smearing-people-who-ask-for-replications/ Permalink 12:30 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3)Jewish Aramaic:ambiguous שהד or הדס but no apparent link witness = martyr as in Greek. So must be a Christian tradition; supicion that Greek => Christian Aramaic, not reverse. Now entered Arabic شهيد via Syriac. Note “Kornet L Sawda” is corruption of Kornet Shhodé. pic.twitter.com/EDx7Opjx3b Permalink 12:21 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “the best horses lose when they compete with slower ones, and win against better rivals.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) Same in Christian Aramaic: Shhoda=witness and martyr, from the Greek version. Looking for the Jewish/Babylonian Aramaic use. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1165690600504659970?s=20 Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Retranslated; “For the Egyptians, no one illiterate can be a witness”. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1165687785790926848 Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The statements: + > 95% of lethal diseases have a genetic etiology. + > 95% of deaths from disease are environmental. are not incompatible. @PZalloua explained that real world #SITG disciplines (Medicine) don’t take the works of “evolutionary”/DNA (pple a la Plomin) v. seriously. Permalink 10:24 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/ #math #mathchat Permalink 8:08 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb At the geneticist @PZalloua’s place in Marounistan. Not a single Byzantine church in the entire zone! Rumophobic but gorgeous scenery. pic.twitter.com/1peIVF9mzA Permalink 6:10 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Fundamental Tail Asymmetry: an illustration using the drop in MERVAL, of how you can accept, never really reject fat tails unless you have some physical law bounding deviations. Adding to the book. [It is Popperian falsification applied to inference] pic.twitter.com/9vB1fTYrjL Permalink 3:55 PM – 24 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Usually, when I go after BS vendors on Twitter, they gain followers. Not here. Need a new BS-vending target both as public service & to make my journey between the republics of Tatarstan & Northern Phoenicia more entertaining. Any suggestion? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1165002900155850753 Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Aug 2019

@GaricMoran 1000 PHD’s in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD’s in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates! Permalink 5:13 PM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox church next to a mosque in Kazan’s Kremlin. pic.twitter.com/m5pY6CAo6e Permalink 9:48 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb They are still looking for holes in my IQ is nonsense argument. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 Permalink 8:34 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connections imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer. ” PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica https://twitter.com/evankirstel/status/1164575263293956096 Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@bulat_abdrkhmnv @nntaleb посетил Казань и @WorldSkillsKZN и поделился своим видением взгляда в будущее pic.twitter.com/03i5qkkR5g Permalink 12:57 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@TimurShagivalee Wealth comes from technical skills, not from universities Благосостояние происходит из технических навыков, а не из университетов @nntaleb #WorldSkillsKazan2019 100%! pic.twitter.com/BybvnJDRMG Permalink 12:14 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Olympiads of techné (vs epistemé): no BS real world skills vs college w/humanities lecktshurers. pic.twitter.com/TvKrafX5PH Permalink 11:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb News from Kazan: Russians are opening a new university with an expiration date based on comment in #Antifragile. Starts in 2020, ends in 2035. May restart then under a new adaptive program. #worldskills https://2035.university Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard “As president I’ll end the failed war on drugs, legalize marijuana, end cash bail, and ban private prisons and bring about real criminal justice reform. I’ll crack down on the overreaching intel agencies and big tech monopolies who threaten our civil liberties and free speech.” pic.twitter.com/oDMVxbmFbJ Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb By policy, if my BS detector makes me go after someone very hard, it is BECAUSE I know his/her work. For instance, I read everything from Pinker. Psychs are idiots. It is almost never the reverse. pic.twitter.com/Mt3glSucVO Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at Plomin’s work. 1-Knows 0 abt correlation (misses on linearity, transitivity, etc.) 2-Knows 0 abt error propagation & dimensionality, basically multivariate probability. 3-Grossly overestimates heredity (via pairwise twin studies) 4-Doesn’t get IQ score !=intelligence https://twitter.com/WiringTheBrain/status/1164438700891213824 Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@JoostvanderLeij You measure xG for 10K players, then count their goals scored. 2000 of them are dead. Dead players score 0 on xG and 0 on goals. The rest have the xG uncorrelated to the goals. What is the spurious correlation xG/goals? Answer: 37% Adapted from @nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ Permalink 1:23 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. Permalink 9:36 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@financequant Anyone who had attended the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI seminar led by @nntaleb et al. would already know this. The detailed example we give is a simple discrete recursion that reproduces the fractal structure of the human lung. 1/2 https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1164288469545316353 Permalink 3:18 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People aren’t getting my point. Nothing to do with causation. Correlation requires linearity, does’nt allow subsampling and is very nonlinear. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ Permalink 9:31 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@RandPaul IT SHOULD BE GETTING AUDITED @realDonaldTrump! https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164174364994080768 Permalink 8:28 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am getting tired of pple lecturing me on “Italian” expressions. “Gabish” is to capisci what “gabagool” is to capicola, and “avangool” to … Permalink 8:23 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@Marvin_3 This has nothing to do with causation. Can you please stop making @nntaleb points for him, sounding like a PARROT. https://www.dropbox.com/s/18pjy7gmz0hl6q7/Correlation.pdf?dl=0 Permalink 6:39 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore. The article has been generalized by eugenists to genetics & heritability. All it can scientifically confirm is the trivial notion that some people are betters than others given same practice in a specific environment. You can’t get to DNA without yuuuge BS. https://twitter.com/mcowartlaw/status/1164148720109268992 Permalink 5:30 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is the fundamental metrics that social scientists don’t seem to get but talk abt like PARROTS. What is correlation? It’s the average of 2 normalized variables MULTIPLIED by one another. In some NARROW circumstances it expresses a statistical association. Which ones? Permalink 5:20 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous BS. Very dangerous. pic.twitter.com/nEXvAudTj1 Permalink 4:33 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb India, please stay away from Cass Sunstein. He is the person behind my original IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) article. https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577 https://twitter.com/BMGFIndia/status/1164109205600526338 Permalink 4:15 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@EricRyderMorgan Didn’t expect to find trail running advocacy in Antifragile @nntaleb ! https://twitter.com/Choosing2Thrive/status/1164009447964008449 Permalink 8:03 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/vRBlp3Jua3 Permalink 3:06 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Friends, this is the first draft of my forward for Cippola’s Basic Laws of Stupidity. For comments. Thanks. pic.twitter.com/1QtL00EtoB Permalink 2:51 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Edit: 1830. Permalink 12:11 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A Must! + Arithmetic didn’t initially develop for scientists, but for traders/accountants + Before 1930 Mathematics was about the real world. Then it got concerned with abstraction + Texts hide experiments in math leading to theorems. Ramanujan did experimental math. Even Euler. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1159131413511311361 Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb Permalink 9:31 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2030s? https://twitter.com/Decafquest/status/1163558762575273984 Permalink 8:51 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I spent my life hearing economists telling me “nothing new; we know about convexity”; then they write an rquation missing the fact that a function of an average can’t be an average of functions. Same with fat tails. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1163832062220148736 Permalink 8:20 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@buchmanster Oh cool another picture of a young @nntaleb from when he traded chicken futures https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1163551872457805825 Permalink 8:01 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@ara_anderson Today’s @mathonco research in progress is a double act from @mathoncbro @StroblMAR on The (anti-)fragility of adaptive therapy! Work inspired by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FPbAbhy7FE – at Vincent A. Stabile Research Building Permalink 7:15 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I went after Fannie-Mae in 2003 https://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/07/business/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html Permalink 5:52 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) I am much stronger than I was at 26. I know a lot more than I did at 26, after eliminating news, only #Lindy books. I speak more languages than I did at 26. I am more independent than I was at 26. but, mostly I made so many mistakes I have more scars than I had at 26. pic.twitter.com/kw1sraiM8p Permalink 5:50 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANTIFRAGILE https://www.parcodellavaldorcia.com/calendar-event/forme-nel-verde-2019-antifragile-inaugurazione-27-luglio/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S”> pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S Permalink 4:54 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Secrets of longevity: bad birth records. Les secrets des 5 régions championnes de la longévité https://w.lpnt.fr/2330574t Permalink 2:46 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Taleb #yoga Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Long time ago, an option trader without facial hair, deadlifts & a twitter account. pic.twitter.com/T49rJLK0GT Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Simple 1D problem. Assume 25 siblings have a genetic predisposition to Type 2 diabetes. In a hunter gatherer envir, they will show no correlations w/r to diseases. Move them to Kansas city => high correlation, hence “genetic determinism”. Now think how this blows up in higher D. Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (For the stickler:) matheux= “matheux mais pas mathematicien” Permalink 10:56 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nabilshadman Plausible scenario in jobs without skin in the game. @nntaleb would probably agree. pic.twitter.com/jVKmVbcxMh Permalink 7:44 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Twin studies vastly overestimate heredity: they yield different results from field studies. Reason: they fail to get 2nd order effects & complex interactions, dominant under convexity. Plomin’s studies for IQ are even worse; yuuge flaws mathematically. https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-great-dna-data-deficit/ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM”> pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM Permalink 5:59 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Scholar with #skininthegame https://twitter.com/moudhy/status/1163104799665139718 Permalink 5:40 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb *going into more and more abstract objects.* Permalink 7:25 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3/ Real mathematicians are obsessed with abstraction, going into more and more abstract. “Matheux” like contact and feedback with the concrete. During the Soviet era, mathematicians were forced to prove *some* connection to things, how they were helping the building of the USSR Permalink 7:00 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@VergilDen “Bullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI Permalink 2:54 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075785890935513088?s=20 Permalink 2:48 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Make sure you read this twice. Explain the charlatanism in Plomin’s book. Some pple have know for years that higher dimensions cancel predictability (curse of dim). Now they are finally figuring it out in genetics and neuroscience. https://www.quantamagazine.org/new-turmoil-over-predicting-the-effects-of-genes-20190423/ Permalink 2:47 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2/ I learned from a long career in math finance to never hire mathematicians (PhD in math) to solve math problems or toy with actual equations. You get a better payoff with a “matheux” who studied (undergrad) electrical engineering in India, Russia, Lebanon, or Brazil. Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 1/ The French have a distinction mathematician vs. “matheux”. + The mathematicia(e)n is like someone who composes music; doesn’t have to perform, be good w/instruments. Invents math. + The matheux is someone who plays an instrument; can be a virtuoso but doesn’t compose music. Permalink 1:45 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68 https://twitter.com/marcos_moret/status/1163174948443164672 Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Real World Risk Institute We’re opening full and partial scholarships for #RWRI 12. October 28 in NYC. http://www.RealWorldRisk.com https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1163150438121824256 Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: governance declines with scale. Some places more than others. The dream of a “strong nation” that plays geopolitics instead of focusing on law, to facilitate services & commerce is a Baathist disease. Permalink 7:06 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I block anyone who cites Harari as a reference for anything. Worse than Pinker. Gabish? Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR If you introduce unbiased noise in birth records, (keeping average life expectancy the same), you yuuuugely increase the number of fake centenarians. Why? Because the tail doesn’t care about the average as much as the imprecision! https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1 Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Michael Gove is correct. I was told that the movie is an excellent subtitute for the book. https://twitter.com/thinkdefence/status/1163065296745353222 Permalink 5:47 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos I’m starting to empathise with @nntaleb in the vicious way he goes after people. Fuck niceties. The people who think fake meat will just get invented sans consequences are either naive ideologues or sociopaths who think it’s fun to tamper with this billions old ecosystem. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162857527358476289 Permalink 5:20 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb P-Hacking and the distribution of p-values, a 3 year old result still not understood by social “scientists”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0 Permalink 4:24 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Please stop the “correlation is not causation” mantra. It’s worse: correlation is not correlation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=60s Permalink 4:03 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We’re at 162,648! Let’s surprise Tulsi when she gets back from National Guard active duty on August 26 by reaching 170,000! Let’s show her how much grassroots support there truly is for her and for her message of peace and prosperity for all! —TeamTulsi #TULSI2020 Permalink 4:51 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/3326461/88078?stw=2 Permalink 3:54 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity. Permalink 3:43 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many have sent me this tweet; here is my answer. Remember transfats? And another 0000s of these “obviously” safe thingies? I am really scared to live in a society in which people take @sapinker seriously. On anything. That’s all I have to say. pic.twitter.com/PBEs5vMVz6 Permalink 3:34 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@engler_j What a lovely and accurate summary of my work! by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IU6seSTtJa Permalink 2:27 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My Principia Politica is not out yet. Yet its terminology is having some impact! pic.twitter.com/GMxlIGzxAl Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb This is what people don’t get: smaller states don’t have minorities and majority rules eradicating them. Too much 19th century thinking. Actually France wanted Germany to be fragmented in 1945; they thought a Federation would be “weak”. https://twitter.com/BaalTheGreat/status/1162703300141244416?s=20 Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@DrGeneCallahan The Mule: Clint Eastwood becomes cartel’s top drug deliverer by following haphazard schedule. But new guy takes over and makes him follow exact route and timetable. Immediately caught! Over-optimization leads to disaster! @nntaleb Permalink 6:36 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Dr. Sagner @MichaelSagnerMD and I are finalizing a paper on Uncertainty in Medicine, illustrated by the following two studies on treating mild HBP: One showing benefits and the other harm and a third discovering 396 medical reversals. How can lay people can deal with uncertainty? pic.twitter.com/QfwJpOSY25 Permalink 6:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Only #Localism works. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ireland, Czeck Rep., Slovakia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Cyprus… People get along better as neighbors than as roommates. Time for Syrians to understand the large Nation-State with “grandeur” & prestige has failed them, destroyed minorities. Small is beautiful. Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, incompetence wins over conspiracy. Always assume incompetence first. (There still may be some conspiracy.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/epstein-died-of-suicide-by-hanging-medical-examiner-says?srnd=premium Permalink 4:48 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Syria should understand the notion of cutting the cancer & consider some partition East/West (currently taboo). You cannot spend the next decades taking then retaking Jihadi areas. ما حدا قسم و ندم! @EHSANI22 https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/1162588630654869505 Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1162213923673657351 Permalink 4:50 PM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And ignore statements about “math geniuses with High IQ”. 1- how many high IQ can do math? 2- Ramanujan, Groethendieck, Mandelbrot were horrrrrrrible at standardized tests… has a mystical link to math… Permalink 8:34 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Reread and you will find it. Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A metric that ONLY detects “below average” will show 80% correlation with performance. (corrected typos) pic.twitter.com/5N0K0mCDpP Permalink 7:51 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@vtchakarova ‘Skin in the Game’ and ‘Fooled by Randomness’ by @nntaleb in Sofia, Bulgaria. pic.twitter.com/TKrYmnGtWq Permalink 7:50 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A clearer presentation showing how a metric for disease can falsely masquerade as a metric for performance because “correlation” is not appropriate (and should NEVER be used) under nonlinearity. Something the Quillettebeciles don’t get. pic.twitter.com/whcdbdcO2M Permalink 7:39 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@garyruskin #Monsanto acts like it has a lot to hide. It had a 20-page #PR plan on how to “minimize impact of” and “minimize media coverage and publicity of” @careygillam’s book Whitewash, about Monsanto, #glyphosate and #Roundup. http://bit.ly/2Kz7oko Permalink 3:01 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I’ve blocked trolls on both sides. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1162112002271170560 Permalink 2:39 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Charles Murray is considered a Galileo of the racisticists, someone who provides scientific truths. He is just an intellectual fraud. These mistakes are on a SINGLE page in his book. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS”> pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS Permalink 1:56 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman is the #1 BS buster in social science. https://twitter.com/Marvin_3/status/1162074581554872321 Permalink 12:03 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Review on Amazon. If you are going to be a BS vendor, make sure to not combine it with “race realism” and eugenics. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X Permalink 9:47 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@RyanHoliday “You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.” Nassim Taleb Permalink 8:00 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You are wasting time arguing about universal computation/Touring machines with the Quilletebeciles neonazis who interpretet as a blank slate argument. The Quilettebeciles don’t even get that you may bolster their argument since in practice there is a yuuge diff betw processors! Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore journos: they can’t property scale moves, put them in perspective. The SP500 is still up >12% on the year. #SkinintheGame: Have to reveal I’ve been short HLF for more than a year. Fear of missing an opportunity, just in case Ackman turns out to be ultimately right. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@ArtOrthodox Dormition of the Theotokos #DormitionoftheTheotokos #JesusChrist #Theotokos #MotherofGod #Saints #byzantineorthodoxart #byzantine #icons #paintings #art #history #artwork #artworks pic.twitter.com/4npa1czwc7 Permalink 4:19 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@byzantinepower Aspirations of this account: – To extol the spiritual power of Orthodoxy & our ability to create Byz 2.0 Tendencies: – Venice bashing – HRE bashing – mocking idiots – foodpoasting Permalink 3:41 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@sf_LPSP You misunderstand and underestimate Taleb if you think this is any kind of outlierish or burdensome “axe to grind”, or even particularly personal. Taleb’s bread and butter- or rather olive oil- is lopping down logs of bullshit, and the axe is sharp for all comers. Permalink 4:09 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Very safe: I stopped in 2010 having dinners with social scientists. https://twitter.com/profmarkreed/status/1161638008837279745 Permalink 1:54 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) You can be fooled by people, and you can be fooled by fields. For instance I was fooled by behavioral economics… pic.twitter.com/Fuh5od8bjB Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Why universality trumps IQ by @trishankkarthik https://link.medium.com/qi3xFAYD4Y Permalink 10:57 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Classifying psychology as “science” reminds me of the Reagan Administration’s classification of Ketchup in school cafeterias as “vegetable”. We need to declassify. Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Asymmetry of BS detector: Friends, there have been many situations where I thought someone was solid, then realized I was mistaken as he turned out to be a bullshitter (e.g. NateS,PT,SP…) Can’t find reverse mistake: pple I thought were bullshitters but turned out to be solid. Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”> pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Anyone saying 17 sigmas about Argentina has a problem. pic.twitter.com/n8EryQDePU Permalink 3:17 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos And basically read everything from @nntaleb – His sometimes excessive hostility toward obnoxious academia aside, it’s hard for me to disparage him as he reminds me of every fucking Greek uncle I loved. When that phenotype smells bullshit, they tend to be brutal…and hilarious. Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Dear @WolframResearch, what’s the symbol for the MERVAL? Trying to get data …for obvious reasons. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/XqCpKfLkkR Permalink 1:51 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@gmax1mum Am I the only one that wants a full volume expansion of this section of Skin in the Game? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Gg9LjHi9NS Permalink 1:39 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You should prevent Classic Liberalism from being exploited by the eugenists-“race realists” using it from cover for the Sinister agenda, particularly when they use science. Expurgate. Be tough. Liberty doesn’t entail genetic ranking. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1161283291137368064 Permalink 9:32 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@Firefly_fan Evolution of “Incerto” by @nntaleb (image 1 and 2). Some “affective” anecdote: the smell of black & golden version is very appealling for my hedonic perspective. It seems alive pic.twitter.com/pEB4vwMDTv Permalink 9:26 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Erudition is whatever is not academic in its acquisition and dispensation. In other words, lively, playful, useful, and nonnerdy. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1161290791991611392 Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@ektrit Explaining how Christianity spread when 99.9% of people were illiterate, it comes to mind that Taleb @nntaleb cannot be understood unless Erudition is understood. Permalink 7:57 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What does a “(basic) law” mean in economics? Some “laws” seem to be empirical, others normative, some deduced from some arbitrary “principle”, a few pulled out of a hat. Permalink 7:06 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@thebigboulard Via Negativa et Antifragile appliqués à l’IT et à la Transformation digitale http://bit.ly/31KGMD1 via @lemagit @philipducellier @nntaleb Permalink 2:55 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Things are spiraling downward much, much faster than I thought. (This deleted tweet by Lehman Brothers was verified on Google cache; I thought it was a spoof). Next target? Some monstrous BS vending outfit I haven’t targeted yet. pic.twitter.com/OpWkJWAfeX Permalink 6:28 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@normonics No. Life is not a game. A game has explicit rules, constraints, win-states. Life does not. At best, implicit ones, but even then not static, not a given. The IQ obsessed have mistaken their little contrived game world with big messy reality. https://twitter.com/garettjones/status/1161047922793828352 Permalink 4:01 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@MKM_Abdul Meanwhile, a Black Swan quietly landed on Argentina’s stock market with a 48% one-day drop. https://twitter.com/business/status/1161010919008288769 Permalink 2:29 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila! Merci bien. pic.twitter.com/FpJv1WWhE9 Permalink 12:35 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla’s def. + stupid: someone who inflicts costs on others while not bringing benefits to himself/herself, even possibly incurring great costs. + bandit: inflicts costs on others but at some benefits to himself/herself. The stupid is vaaaaastly more dangerous than the bandit. Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/economie/les-etats-unis-doivent-adapter-leur-dispositif-antitrust-aux-geants-d-internet-20190811 (Je n’arrive pas a acheter l’article) Permalink 11:48 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are always some subtle differences between a book and the corresponding film, owing to the requirements of the medium. https://twitter.com/IMAO_/status/1160658967825178624 Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words: Cipolla’s 2nd Law: there is a ratio \sigma of stupid people, in all professions/groups/periods. My Q: is it like econ. inequality, same ratio, but different people? If you came back in 10 y, \sigma has new people (i.e ergodic). Does the stupid survive in group? Permalink 10:22 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Writing a foreword to The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by Cippola: You always underestimate for any time/profession # of incompetent pple. Law: No matter how incompetent an editor is, there will be a pool of readers even more stupid who won’t notice. Q: is stupidity ergodic? https://twitter.com/sobu_18/status/1160946236767264768 Permalink 9:56 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@DonkeyJawPosse Walking via ⁦@nntaleb⁩ pic.twitter.com/dB5VuKgx9n Permalink 6:08 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You hit on something: collective intelligence (groups) is orthogonal to individual ones because of scale transformation. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@MarekADochnal @nntaleb never disappoints in fighting BS in its every living form. But even he isn’t iPhone-proof: see Murrat in his twit: the hybrid of Murray and Marshal Murat, King of Naples Permalink 4:21 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Murray also manages to BS about mathematics. A scholar! pic.twitter.com/loJG4ctyym Permalink 3:50 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Methods of the loci. If you want to remember math stuff, carry a durable physical notebook with standard theorems/graphs. You will associate the equation with a physical page. Permalink 3:07 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There is a book by the Russian psychologist Luria about a prodigy who could remember tons. He mentally used maps 2D ->3D where each object to remember would be placed. When I look at a physical book in my library, I remember the contents! Even more when I hold it in my hands. Permalink 2:43 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Harder to remember stuff read on a screen. Needs 1 more dimension. https://twitter.com/jangold_/status/1160836414797492224 Permalink 2:23 AM – 12 Aug 2019

Monsanto, McKinsey, Shihabi, Saudi Barbaria, Pedophrasty, Haley, Frum, GMOs | Twitter

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Yesterday I received the @Wolfram Award (for computational mathematics). It’s not an award. It’s an accreditation: a statement by the smartest person I know about (@stephen_Wolfram) certifying: “As far as I can see, for computational probability, N N Taleb is not an idiot”.

@ngriffin360 Life is.. #longgamma #antifragile @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/rhErBRtxQ3 Permalink 9:14 AM – 23 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ya LebTwitter Shu bit7ébbo nsammé l lgha taba3na? @oldlevantine @Extrachelle @HsenAndil @PZalloua @961Aleh @lebaneselingui1 @BLebnene @turlevnon Permalink 6:50 PM – 22 Oct 2018

@RobertKennedyJr Momentous news on #Monsanto appeal! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/22/monsanto-cancer-roundup-weedkiller-judge-denies-appeal Permalink 5:25 PM – 22 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Real World Risk #9. 55 pple. Lunch break. pic.twitter.com/2GhOaMdNJn Permalink 10:18 AM – 22 Oct 2018

@yhazony What I learned from this: There’s a morality that attends the study and dissemination of ideas. A professionalism, if you like. You don’t shoot your mouth off when you don’t know what you are talking about. You don’t write essays and give speeches about books you haven’t read. /4 Permalink 5:28 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese Language books in process. https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1054102008360247298 Permalink 2:24 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Many people make the mistake of engaging shills with arguments. Never take at face value what a paid shill like that despicable @aliShihabi says. Gabish? Permalink 12:40 PM – 21 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic A big reason why normal pple like @nntaleb is that he calls out the experts & ivory tower intelligentsia. The sort of people who call the normal person ‘populist’, ‘pseudoscientific’,etc. NNT turns the tables (with proof, maths & superior thought). He PROVES they r pseudo-experts https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1054017843136749574 Permalink 10:53 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For the record, Mr @aliShihabi, Saudi Gov. lobbyist, fully aware of my vocal criticism, has tried to infiltrate a restaurant dinner party I was giving, supposedly to “talk to me”. I never talk to shills. I cannot be bribed by shills. I am uncompromising: I despise shills. Permalink 9:42 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@Ashu_2017 As expected, Saudi govt was keeping a close tab on critics. Impossible not to marvel at the courage of @nntaleb for his frequent attacks on the Saudi state. #Khashoggi https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/us/politics/saudi-image-campaign-twitter.html Permalink 8:45 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@Joyce_Karam Oh, McKinsey is “horrified” that its 9 page report to #Saudi naming dissidents was used to go after dissidents: https://twitter.com/McKinsey/status/1053838356826808320 Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@aClassicLiberal Sweden has higher wealth inequality than the US, @nntaleb explains it in “Inequality and Skin in the Game”: “Any form of control of the wealth process–typically instigated by bureaucrats –tended to lock people with privileges in their state of entitlement” http://bit.ly/2Jd2reY Permalink 7:43 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Most people who complain about inequality are those rich, but narcissistic and envious of the strata above them: “I Joseph S, am smart, but why is he richer?” Chapter in Skin in the Game: https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is typical @JosephEStiglitz probability-blind BS: inequality in the US measured STATICALLY is higher than Eu. Completely misses on the DYNAMICS, and on the mismeasurement of inequality under Fat Tails. See #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/sciam/status/1053000745459638277 Permalink 6:38 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@SituationO In the memory of massacre of Aishiyeh(Maronite town in #Lebanon )that took place Between 19th to 21st of October 1976 More than 70 Christians(7 under the age of 16) were killed & one was burned alive by PLO Fatah &Saika. The village was depopulated & used as PLO base of operation Permalink 6:33 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words, @McKinsey effectively DID help Saudi Arabia track dissidents. Despicable. pic.twitter.com/aAdJ6v5nsQ Permalink 6:04 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My 2015 accusation: Since Sep 11 we encouraged an “ally” to groom Salafi terrorists and spread intolerance while fighting terrorism in the wrong place. https://www.politico.eu/article/the-saudi-wahhabis-are-the-real-foe-islamic-terrorists-salafi-violence/ Permalink 5:59 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Bigoteering: Christians banned from areas/highways; identifying dress code for Saudis; tortures journos; ethnic cleanses Syria; beheads atheists/apostates/critics/LBGT; treats women/Asian workers like cattle …then send Twitter agents to mark critics as “racist”. @jack Permalink 5:39 AM – 21 Oct 2018

@gcfr20 A probability problem for recreation (cc @nntaleb, @CutTheKnotMath, @_eylem_99) pic.twitter.com/b5RCR5Fh4j Permalink 5:54 PM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This Saudi shill is transforming the abominable crime by Saudi Barbaria into a U.S. domestic affair. Despicable man. https://twitter.com/alishihabi/status/1053688547667046400 Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This Saudi shill is transforming the abominable crime by Saudi Barbaria into a U.S. domestic affair. Despicable man. https://twitter.com/aliShihabi/status/1053688547667046400 Permalink 10:04 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb One possible route for the solution. pic.twitter.com/E6ncDPDyPY Permalink 5:28 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@AshokaHolla #UnitedStates with an economy of $20Tr financially need not pander to a rogue nation for a meagre annual $32 billion bilateral trade. @ianbremmer @nntaleb https://twitter.com/AshokaHolla/status/1053611434708553728 Permalink 4:40 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saturday Morning Math Exercise: in remembrance of our friend @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/WGwbZQju6g Permalink 4:36 AM – 20 Oct 2018

@nntaleb After 17 days of denial, the Saudis accept their role in the death of the journalist, saying “it was just an argument that got physical”. After 17 years, the Saudis will accept their role in 9/11, saying “it was just a flying lesson that went wrong”. https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1053482545797578752 Permalink 8:17 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The Saudi affair can lead to a (positive) minority rule effect: an intransigeant minority boycotting Saudi Barbaria & shaming those who do can rule. Anyone remotely associated with Saudi Barbaria will be punished. Hope to see the minority rule at work! https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 Permalink 7:14 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In “Skin in the Game”, I state that there is no group that violates morality rules and symmetry (fundamental ethics) as much as the neocons. Permalink 5:30 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mr Krugman @paulkrugman has been effectively wrong on everything (markets, bitcoin, technology, trade, GDP, FX, elections, history…): the real world is not something he has ever managed to grasp. So, predictably, he now supports the neocons (Iraq, Lybia, Syria, etc.) https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1053274998742441985 Permalink 5:21 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb How did you know? Please don’t tell anyone. Permalink 5:15 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Details: pic.twitter.com/jM80A8bUaY Permalink 3:14 PM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Yesterday I received the @Wolfram Award (for computational mathematics). It’s not an award. It’s an accreditation: a statement by the smartest person I know about (@stephen_Wolfram) certifying: “As far as I can see, for computational probability, N N Taleb is not an idiot”. pic.twitter.com/IcM3gMw14G Permalink 5:08 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@GenEngNetwork In order to save #glyphosate, the Monsanto corp has undertaken an effort to destroy the UN cancer agency IARC, by any means possible. Here is the part one of an investigation from Le Monde. Stéphane Horel, Stéphane Foucart #monsantopapers #glyphosate https://www.ehn.org/monsanto-glyphosate-cancer-smear-campaign-2509710888.html Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@nntaleb I don’t understand the symbolism of the rooftop yet but I will be there anyway. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1053220609331748864 Permalink 4:23 AM – 19 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #theblackswanman #blackswanman #Nietzsche #Halloween pic.twitter.com/7fh1FIdqZZ Permalink 2:42 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@SwedeWhite Watching @nntaleb tinker with probability w/ @WolframResearch Mathematica at #WolframTechConference—so cool pic.twitter.com/0rbxrDOo8m Permalink 1:05 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb At any rate I will start my lecture with: Delenda Saudi Barbaria pic.twitter.com/JvAICZU9Ok Permalink 12:39 PM – 18 Oct 2018

@DavidVStewart As I reflect on Roman history and the work of @nntaleb , I realize that what made the great generals great was not some special knowledge of strategy, but the ability to exploit opportunities, optionality, and keep asymmetry in their favor. Permalink 11:46 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In about one hour I am slated to lecture on “how to tinker with probability using Mathematica.” Should I use the platform to discuss Saudi Barbaria instead? What should I talk about? Permalink 11:46 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb EMPIRICAL RIGOR Will all due respect to @NickKristof, BS vendor @jk_rowling, Kashoggi was a defender of HIS OWN free speech, not that of others. K supported the beheading of Nimr, the Shiite cleric who dared to speak up. Disclosure: I met Khashoggi in Riyadh in 2011. pic.twitter.com/LYTM8vrnk4 Permalink 6:40 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Whenever Saudi Barbaria has a problem, they spend more money on spin and propaganda. https://twitter.com/Saudi_Source/status/1051666466540531712 Permalink 4:44 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb “A single journalist is a tragedy; ten thousand Yemenis is a statistic”. Joseph Stalin, 1949 Permalink 4:16 AM – 18 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Now we are making progress. If I entered the Saudi consulate and beat up one of the prediabetic sheikhs, would the NY police intervene? So if they can call the police on me( by (“authorizing”), not the reverse, there is an asymmetry. Permalink 2:01 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb So, in other words, if the Saudis had guillotines in their consulates to streamline future processes, it’s no problem? Permalink 1:49 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Say I showed up at the Saudi Consulate in New York to get a visa to vacation in one of their fabulous resorts, & they hacked me to pieces. Assume there is no evidence I am a US. citiizen. Would the New York police need to ask Saudi Barbaria for permission to investigate? Permalink 1:35 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Stop the shills! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-10-17/ex-amb-indyk-says-u-s-must-keep-saudis-on-positive-agenda-video Permalink 1:13 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb On my way to the conference! @WolframResearch https://twitter.com/WolframResearch/status/1052629643302490112 Permalink 12:07 PM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There will be an inexpensive paperback version later in 2019-2020. The vol 1 of the Technical Incerto sh be out in 2-3 months (color, hardback, my own design), subsidized. Permalink 10:20 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is the hardcover (much more expensive than the paperback), coming out in March 2019. Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Last version of the next Box Set. Aesthetics count. Which is why I write in LaTeX. pic.twitter.com/skCXDpOaMA Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb My problem with Saudi Barbaria is not domestic. They can have the regime they want. It is that the country is dangerous to the rest of the world: + support for terrorism/911, + spread of Wahabi doctrine, + ethnic cleansing in Syria, + propaganda, infl over U.S. policy etc. https://twitter.com/tsneaux/status/1052560904049623040 Permalink 7:30 AM – 17 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Upregulation, overcompensation. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/aopsnews/status/1052310223082393601 Permalink 3:01 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb CASCADES Saudi Barbaria will give us an illustration of a standard cascade: Barbaria can retaliate against a single company or a country (as they tried w/Canada); but cannot do so against the rest of the world. Cascades are the standard readjustment for complex systems. Permalink 2:16 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb I will give lecktchur by video sometimes during the program. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1050019558067716098 Permalink 1:46 PM – 16 Oct 2018

@AmLyceum Penn Station, a tragedy in four parts: pic.twitter.com/EXySqHCvd0 Permalink 10:13 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb King Kong on Broadway? I have to improvise! pic.twitter.com/TxWDcDZWuC Permalink 9:46 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Philosophy of Probability: How we can link the speed of convergence of the law of large numbers to the problem of induction. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf cc: @HarryDCrane @paulboghossian ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VxNhOqY7eA”> pic.twitter.com/VxNhOqY7eA Permalink 4:54 AM – 16 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, please call the king of Saudi Barbaria again for his second version of the story. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1051814214212485120?s=21 Permalink 6:20 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@alwyn_lau Re-reading @nntaleb’s “Anti-Fragile”. Now I know why I have an innate suspicion towards: a) fit-bits/activity trackers b) after-school tuition which fill up a child’s week c) packaged vacations d) KPIs’ e) systematic theology pic.twitter.com/IJ1PHqQdbo Permalink 6:10 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words (Fat Tony’s), don’t cross a river that’s on average 4 feet deep. https://twitter.com/necsi/status/1051883954603782145 Permalink 3:29 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words (Fat Tony’s), don’t cross a river that’s on average 4 feet deep. https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/1051883954603782145 Permalink 3:29 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Well, @Paul_Salem: A shameless shill for the UAE (hence Saudi Barbaria). Foreign affairs people start with an idealistic views of the world; they try to become scholars. Then life happens and they realize they are unskilled labor; so they get corrupted to the bone. https://twitter.com/MiddleEastInst/status/1051933221288595463 Permalink 2:46 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In other words, Saudi Barbaria is saying: “We didn’t mean to kill him; we just tortured him to death” Permalink 1:58 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@James_McGinniss Love @nntaleb on CC (1:22:00): “there’s a high probability the [IPCC models] are full of crap and there’s also a probability their opponents are… but the more uncertainty there is in a system the less you want to pollute, bc you don’t know what’s going on”. Limit our downside https://twitter.com/naval/status/1051578799098195969 Permalink 1:55 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb To say it in the language of the Saudi Barbaria: عذر اقبح من ذنب (An excuse that is more hideous than the crime) https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1051928133249712128 Permalink 1:52 PM – 15 Oct 2018

@NECSI The more nonlinearity in the response, the less informational the average. Within the day, you do not need to consume the same amount water every minute, but at the scale of the day, you want maximal evenness. @nntaleb @NECSI #Complexity Permalink 10:14 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@__anoop @nntaleb says ‘anyone who is capable of writing a business plan, you dont want to invest with them’ – and this is the reason why I like Taleb. He’s an honorable man. Why? He said it to a VC (@naval) on stage at a blockchain conf. That takes guts and more than that conviction Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Unless they are fables or fable-like (Borges, Calvino), short stories are hard to remember. Permalink 6:40 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@adolfont “Anything that smacks of competition destroys knowledge.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb http://bit.ly/2pV8b46 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ZUipjh3KPf”> pic.twitter.com/ZUipjh3KPf Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Make sure the Secretary of State has a well-functioning Apple Watch. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1051814214212485120 Permalink 5:42 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Short stories are mostly read by people who want to write short stories. Permalink 4:10 AM – 15 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 3- Now if the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria makes a deal w/Iran to retaliate against the West, guess what would happen: Iranians will just take their oil, via a Shiite insurrection. Reason: oil reserves are in the Shiite section & indigenous are treated like sub-dhimmis. Permalink 5:54 PM – 14 Oct 2018

@schmittpaula “The most consequential and destructive 9/11 truther conspiracy was that Saddam was behind 9/11”. https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/1051508445701173249 Permalink 9:38 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Rischiare Grosso (Introduction to Skin in the Game in Italian) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOcQojM9VPM&feature=youtu.be Permalink 9:17 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The Palestinian “leadership” has never missed an opportunity to harm their own. Practically never. https://twitter.com/KhaledAbuToameh/status/1051455437319606275 Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb …and said journalist is a Muslim Brotherhood activist, in favor of the ethnic cleansing of Syria, the Yemen war, & other Jihadisms. His falling out w/the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria (a.k.a MBS) is infighting similar to the Castellammarese War betw. mafia families. Gabish? Permalink 7:12 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A Yuuuge agency problem in journalism: they care abt journalists far more than other pple. + Saudi Barbaria does Sept 11, blows up & ethnically cleanses Syria, Salafizes countries, wrecks Yemen. Nobody cares. + Saudi Barbaria suspected of killing one journalist, total deluge. Permalink 5:50 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Genetically and culturally fake category. Chromoidentities. pic.twitter.com/SoLmuCxRwo Permalink 5:17 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@Sugarsteroni What We Learned from Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Naval Ravikant https://buff.ly/2pSWc7a ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BBd6uqIX5B”> pic.twitter.com/BBd6uqIX5B Permalink 5:15 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@jnaanarthi @naval Here’s audio extract with noise removed https://soundcloud.com/user-515868246/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-naval-ravikant-chat Permalink 2:01 AM – 14 Oct 2018

@notiveri Da Gesù a Donald Trump, perché non si può vivere senza rischiare: Nei momenti storici di crisi emerge na necessità di rischiare. Per andare oltre le regole consolidate, che del resto non valgono più nulla. L’elogio del rischio di Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2018/10/14/da-gesu-a-donald-trump-perche-non-si-puo-vivere-senza-rischiare/39737/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/nepyQ0VLcY”> pic.twitter.com/nepyQ0VLcY Permalink 9:04 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@Sri_Rad15 Was there. Those Golden words “F-bayes” https://twitter.com/Sri_Rad15/status/1033410957861683201 Permalink 5:49 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Most plausible explanation is that they wanted to take him to Saudi Barbaria. Permalink 4:35 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: 1- My comment in new book: You can ONLY use Bayesian updating under reliable priors and reliably CONVERGING probabilities. 2- Efron’s outstanding summary. pic.twitter.com/KK8UQ74hKM Permalink 3:02 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The approach to the murder of the journo by Saudi Barbaria (if details are true) illustrates the conflation the sophisticated w/what looks sophisticated. The most sophisticated approach wd have been to use a cheap hitman on a motorcycle. Saudis acted like academic economists. Permalink 12:13 PM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Recall my Twitter fight with Rothkopf. Thank you Twitter; we can now expose frauds very early. https://twitter.com/aaschapiro/status/1050599529563615232 Permalink 11:10 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Probability… not Pinker’s thing. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1047946091637948417 Permalink 10:15 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbarian shills. One thing is certain: they’re not good at it. https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/1026416994827075585 Permalink 9:53 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There is a yuuuugely sublte point about the minority rule that @Naval got: If it’s stable, it comes from the minority rule. Why? Simply majority rules produce fluctuations with slight variations of majority. https://twitter.com/dawnmnewton/status/1050448770666717184 Permalink 9:21 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@CasciottaGian Caro @nntaleb Come vedi l’impegno nella lettura ce lo metto . Grazie a @ilSaggiatoreEd @lucaformenton Ottimo Cupellaro sin dalle prime pagine. Non era facile. #skininthegame #rischiaregrosso pic.twitter.com/XplbiA48kD Permalink 9:16 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@JeanMessiha La haine de soi du gauchiste obéit a une règle immuable: plus la cause lui est étrangère plus il se mobilisera et vice-versa. Il soutiendra donc Rohingyas, Ouïgours, Yazidis…mais JAMAIS de Chrétiens, ni d’Orient ni d’ailleurs. Horreur, ils font trop penser aux Cathos français ! Permalink 8:14 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb (Blocking works well: I used to get 15-20 “cute” remarks for the Math quizzes, now I just get 2 or 3). You reduce 95% of the noise just by blocking .1% of the followers. Permalink 6:57 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The long route, unlike @laptopman4 pic.twitter.com/Qhi7jlI47l Permalink 6:44 AM – 13 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Hint pic.twitter.com/S15lBVNjL2 Permalink 6:37 PM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2 out of 3 so far seem very close. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/934225604228116480 Permalink 10:11 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Meetings are metastatic. Permalink 9:19 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@NonMeek @nntaleb Here’s a handy comic strip for your next encounter with prominent mathematical finance professors. [ https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ ] ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zCNrhGFpcU”> pic.twitter.com/zCNrhGFpcU Permalink 9:15 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A simple riddle, courtesy the Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/Ba47RfEUE2 Permalink 8:18 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/15/business/dealbook/stock-surge-presents-risks-for-the-trump-administration.html #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8w3ZhyxkXB”> pic.twitter.com/8w3ZhyxkXB Permalink 8:14 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A reliable predictor of future insuccess: if someone writes long (and frequent) emails. Permalink 6:30 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Honorable people punish. https://twitter.com/getfactual/status/873205174696890369 Permalink 4:36 AM – 12 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There was no fire during the firechat. https://twitter.com/AdamPWeiss/status/1050452941474131969 Permalink 4:30 PM – 11 Oct 2018

@drjasonfung 3 cases of type 2 diabetes reversal with fasting – http://casereports.bmj.com/content/2018/bcr-2017-221854.full @nntaleb would appreciate how this fits with Via Negativa, and also why these paradigm shifts don’t come out of academia Permalink 12:47 PM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Annahar an Arabist and Arabophiliastic paper published a blank issue today. I don’t know if it was intentional, but there was suddenly more substance in it than usual. https://twitter.com/decafquest/status/1050415681446010880 Permalink 9:03 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@ShipSystem Most who never lived in Belgium misses to understand the Belgian mentality that they are hyper localists. Even the Flemish dont want to be part of the NL and Walloon dont want to be French & they all dont care for central gov/nation. They are localists. ping @nntaleb @ektrit Permalink 6:36 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@EamonnK Went to the dentist yesterday. Had to get X-Rays taken. First time (after reading ‘Antifragile’) I ever thought wow! These x rays are good for me!! #Antifragile #Antifragility @nntaleb @Antifragilista7 pic.twitter.com/qqyrgrqym9 Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Chi non risica non rosica. Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Se il titolo sembra diverso da quello degli Stati Uniti, è perché lo volevo. “Rischiare grosso” è meglio in italiano in quanto insiste sul rischio. @ilSaggiatoreEd Post scriptum : Vuoi che faccia un breve Youtube in italiano? https://twitter.com/hugowiz/status/1050350614612455424 Permalink 6:25 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@WeAreLebanon Foggy sky over #DhourChoueir By @amal_h86 #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/p5Fk5loZGC Permalink 4:20 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@ilSaggiatoreEd «A una minoranza intransigente (di un certo tipo) che si metta in gioco […] basterà raggiungere diciamo il tre o quattro per cento della popolazione totale per costringere quest’ultima a adeguarsi alle sue preferenze.» #RischiareGrosso Da oggi http://ow.ly/vrly30m2NBQ ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lETXsxaLon”> pic.twitter.com/lETXsxaLon Permalink 3:00 AM – 11 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Plane ride to LA. Took the engineering route, not the mathematician’s. pic.twitter.com/1HwyUutwcA Permalink 12:48 PM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb TEchnical Black Swan Problem pic.twitter.com/GmcEV30DFn Permalink 12:23 PM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb There’s a *statistical* near-certainty that Nate Silver doesn’t understand probability. Actually, there is a certainty. cc:@EllieAsksWhy https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1047882643528974336 Permalink 9:07 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@ericozkan1 Color? And how about the gilded frame? Sam (Harris) does not get the gilded frame…I’ve only used that for Newton. pic.twitter.com/mk6hDKVzfi Permalink 7:02 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #popper #theblackswan #falsification #problemofinduction pic.twitter.com/k88DHkdkFH Permalink 6:46 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Some have severe problems of reading comprehension (witness logically-challenged journo @TheStalwart). Labeling people is not “thinking” in labels: thinking is a thought process, labeling is the shortcut result of a thought process. Think. Gabish? https://twitter.com/MalthusJohn/status/1049995096807145472 Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@nntaleb MATH PROBLEM DU JOUR (EASY): pic.twitter.com/GVz3araMFc Permalink 2:27 AM – 10 Oct 2018

@trishankkarthik You may remember this brave guy from a few months ago After reading @nntaleb, he used deadlifts to recover from lung surgery despite scary warnings to the contrary from his doctors If he can do it, so can you Now get out there and start lifting https://twitter.com/maalaukong/status/1049897517515718656 Permalink 11:06 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@stan_yurin This clueless text generator have won the econ nobel, enough said. https://twitter.com/stan_yurin/status/986610320457256960 Permalink 8:16 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@producerdrummer “Friends, remember that: Unless you build a habit of making money on your own, standalone, you will find yourself, at some point, depending on the whims of someone else who will run your life. When it’s too late.” @nntaleb Permalink 5:47 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink And tripes pic.twitter.com/j8kDBoVXpb Permalink 5:01 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Here is the “chaos” predicted by this young “genius” if Assad re-takes Syria from jihadists: Christians celebrating the Feast of the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary last month for the first time in the restored cathedral – blown up by this think-tanker’s “freedom fighters”! pic.twitter.com/LqjG6bP9Ew Permalink 4:22 PM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb For those confused, this is what pedophrasty means. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@BrianTHeligman 13. Special thanks to @normonics and @nntaleb for their excellent climate letter that really helped to clarify my framing of all this. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf Permalink 9:13 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The idiotic @thestalwart: 1) Does not distinguish between THINKING IN labels and EXPRESSING IN labels (say in condensing a tweet). 2) Retweets “behind your back” with pic not so I don’t see it. Learn defects from journos. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1049681886761639936 Permalink 8:46 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The replacement of psychopathic pedophrastic low-IQ maximally neocon ambassador by someone who can potentially be a neocon is excellent news. https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/1049678995476877312 Permalink 8:22 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb You are also told the same in post-revolutionary America. Just avoid MSM. https://twitter.com/Mehdi_IR_DC/status/1049679843900710912 Permalink 8:17 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Christmas came early. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1049671372962783234 Permalink 7:55 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, but I block idiots. There is something about extreme stupidity that makes it unethical in its harm the public. Please do not take it personally. Nothing personal, but I just block idiots. Permalink 5:09 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 2) Why are journos such as @davidfrum sooooooooooooo clueless about rent seeking? pic.twitter.com/bxhWV0ptcz Permalink 4:56 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@nntaleb 1) It is a shame that journos don’t get that money made thanks to office is defrauding the taxpayer. https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1049627625046626304 Permalink 4:55 AM – 9 Oct 2018

@GMOFreeUSA Gerber has begun to make non-GMO claims on some of their products, without independent verification. That’s not good enough. BOYCOTT GERBER until they remove GMOs and get Non-GMO Project Verified. SIGN THE PETITION: http://tinyurl.com/jd997ka READ: http://www.gmwatch.org/news/latest-news/16297-do-gm-soybean-plants-accumulate-formaldehyde ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/o1QMTs4kb1″> pic.twitter.com/o1QMTs4kb1 Permalink 6:07 PM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Do I strike you as someone who would set foot in Harvard Square? Permalink 4:48 PM – 8 Oct 2018

Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams | Medium

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Pedophrasty

Definition: Argument involving children to prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children: nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the reporting. Often done with the aid of pictures.

Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams

Ergodicity, Immigration, Nudgers, Monsanto, Gold, Blue, Pedophrasty, Pinker, Harris | Twitter

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#FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. pic.twitter.com/3E29W3pr5u

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 22, 2018

@nntaleb Ergodicity part 2! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1013450757943775233 Permalink 2:12 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He got ergodicity. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1013450358163755010 Permalink 2:08 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Of course. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1013019208085639169 Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war. & as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place. So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The discussion is not about the invention of calculus, but about Leibnitz, the last of the real polymaths (although he didn’t lift weights), and how mathematics is something that one can pick-up later in life. Gabish? Permalink 5:48 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) OK, OK, my Indian friends. Rediscovered calculus. Works now? Permalink 7:33 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Leibniz was a legal philosopher who at the age of 26 decided to learn math, then (co)invented calculus. https://twitter.com/MathsEdIdeas/status/1013204854066606081 Permalink 7:26 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up. Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions. Permalink 7:22 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@normonics It’s not just pol sci people. The idea that the scale of a system is relevant to its behavior is OBVIOUS; yet almost never accounted for. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1013100413602680837 Permalink 3:10 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb What intellectuals don’t get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY: OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame Gabish? Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@Jeff_Fine Questions? pic.twitter.com/e7r4mQunXF Permalink 1:03 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn’t work. For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn’t exist. Permalink 12:59 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) This illusion that one can work with abstract ideas WITHOUT embedding them is the reason “intellectuals” don’t get skin in the game. (thread w @ClaireBerlinski ) Permalink 9:44 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is some type of common reasoning defect shared by people in political “science”: they don’t get scaling “Democracy” is not scalable. They don’t understand my insults: it’s not about ideas but in what environments ideas can be practically executed #ComplexSystems https://twitter.com/ClaireBerlinski/status/1013058174465859587 Permalink 9:42 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@Baloo1987 An article written by a toxicologist working for #Monsanto is then handed to regulators who then simply copy-pasted it into the EU regulatory review. The definition a revolving door. Unbelievable! #CIJsummer #MonsantoPapers pic.twitter.com/jdJtyBa60K Permalink 6:02 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Functional Equation https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/DorinMarghidanuFunctionalEquation.shtml #FigureThat #math #algebra ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WRgWtwrGRm”> pic.twitter.com/WRgWtwrGRm Permalink 5:43 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Hope @freakonometrics can comment, as a follow-up to our debate with @DrCirillo as to whether statisticians have considered such consequence of fattailedness. All comments, whether positive or negative, are welcome. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0 Permalink 2:53 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Congress set up non-profits to raise $ for @NIH & @CDCGov. They illegally hid info about their corporate donors. Meanwhile, US health experienced its worst decline in a century. Now they’re lying about it. Time for #skininthegame. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/us-lawmakers-want-nih-and-cdc-foundations-say-more-about-donors cc: @nntaleb Permalink 2:41 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fraud Alert: QUORA ask Statisticians what they think of my work and get Unethical Mandari Narayan @neurostats to comment on anecdotes from Incerto, WITHOUT considering technical work. The fraud by Mandari Narayan sits for 3 y on the web. Comment on this! http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html Permalink 2:07 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The initial results of the M4 Competition can be found/downloaded in https://www.m4.unic.ac.cy/results/ The ranking of the first half of methods can be seen below ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fPmOZHkUGw”> pic.twitter.com/fPmOZHkUGw Permalink 9:46 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never been more excited to attend a conference! @NECSI’s #ICCS2018 https://twitter.com/NECSI/status/1012102041446084608 Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other counterintuitive aspect is that EVEN if Country X won EVERY past game, injecting a tiny bit of randomness into the system can make its probability of winning drop below, say, 10%. A tiny bit of randomness percolates quickly across the branches of the tree. Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is a set of probabilities that can give Germany 25% of winning without 100% probability of being in the semi-finals: that CONDITIONAL on making the semi-finals probability increases. However, the opposite holds: the higher up, the MORE 1/n. Gabish? Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Et cela continue https://www.capital.fr/votre-carriere/la-bibliotheque-du-manager-jouer-sa-peau-de-nicholas-taleb-1295541 Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria). The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/r3T9zNsB4k”> pic.twitter.com/r3T9zNsB4k Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final. Don’t listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability. Permalink 5:07 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Discovered something: negative kurtosis and negative kappa. Some distributions are thinner-tailed than the Gaussian (needs to be bimodal) pic.twitter.com/JW0q7oFBok Permalink 4:56 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, thanks to the crowd-corrections @spyrosmakrid gave me a stay of execution. I got an extension. Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Les françaises et français commencent a aimer mon livre “Jouer sa peau”. Ils en ont marre de leur fonctionnaires. pic.twitter.com/wgZoj0bCJG Permalink 4:47 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Naturally it debunks some of the “nudgers” s.a. @r_thaler showing they don’t understand fat tails & probability. pic.twitter.com/FKZJiIgnef Permalink 4:00 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, I was told in no uncertain terms by the editors & @spyrosmakrid that I get severely punished if I don’t meet the deadline for this paper (today). Please help find errors. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0 (cont) ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jvngV00bHs”> pic.twitter.com/jvngV00bHs Permalink 3:59 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@StoolPoop I like that @nntaleb isnt left or right but rather local over global. I imagine he respects the harassing of pols in public. “Keep them close enough to kick them” Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn’t be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can’t people think in 1 ½ order effects? https://twitter.com/business/status/997061733566107649 Permalink 9:44 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 The idea to eat a plant-based diet is based on 2 mistakes. 1. Blaming meat for what ultra-processed foods did. 2. Blaming cholesterol for what insulin resistance did. Permalink 9:31 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To prove to Spyros I am really working on it, here is the paper in progress. Friends can help with typos. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bitm9ejxxyyfdf/kappa-n-final.pdf?dl=0 Permalink 8:06 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is meta-Skin in the Game https://twitter.com/michaelbjacksa/status/1011639219998150656 Permalink 3:24 PM – 26 Jun 2018

@LucasVitorinoS3 ‘Homens fracos agem para satisfazer suas necessidades, homens fortes agem para cumprir seus deveres’ – @nntaleb Permalink 10:58 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@normonics If you’re concerned about what we’re doing to the climate by exposing it to a large amount of a non-novel agent You should be MUCH MORE concerned about GMO agr, as we are exposing ecosystems globally to massive amount of novel agents — including living ones that can replicate! Permalink 9:31 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Essay: Monsanto’s ghostwriting and strong-arming threaten sound science—and society http://www.ehn.org/monsanto-effort-to-skew-science-2581194459.html Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The heuristic is, simply, production of a commodity / volatility, signal/noise and you can see how much additional discovery/supply matters. Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand that @JustinWolfers is just another academic living on charity; but surprised to discover that @neelkashkari is head of a Fed and doesn’t realize that existing gold stock is monstrous in relation to production. Who put him there? Permalink 5:26 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Quant Finance researchers meet Medicine Quants today: pic.twitter.com/4P99A33mVR Permalink 3:36 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Antigragility: my lecktchur in 2 hours https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1011244554622676992 Permalink 12:52 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These idiots have never traded gold and seen forward contracts sold by producers. Permalink 12:46 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In fact unlike with money supply, gold miners are distributed and in competition. Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These 2 clueeeeeeeeless economists have no idea that the competitive mahket values gold in the ground as an asset with optionality. I mean clueeeeless. @JustinWolfers is particularly ignorant of everything. https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1011309709012488193 Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@d_a_n Some things don’t scale. Consider how you react to a car blocking the road. Small community – I get out, say hi, ask if help is needed, chat happily for 30 mins City – I hoot, swear, call the cops, maybe resort to road rage (thanks to @nntaleb for the insight) Permalink 9:30 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As I said the English “commoners” accept their GENETIC inferiority to the aristocracy but these hypocrites go on talking about political correctness with other commoners. Disgusting. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1010121158233116674 Permalink 9:26 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Background and solution pic.twitter.com/kEkc0xx98H Permalink 7:38 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@catoletters Robert Mueller was the biggest obstacle for Sept. 11 families who wanted to sue Saudi Arabia https://washex.am/2lodyqk Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Syrian Christianity, something 1300 years of Arab rule didn’t do; Remember Christianity was born there, the NT was in the Greek of Antioch. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-24/ben-rhodes-admits-obama-armed-jihadists-syria-bombshell-interview Permalink 6:16 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mini-Lecture (5 min) today at BBQ (Bloomberg Quant Seminar) in Honor of Rabbi “Tony” Glickman, 1950-2018. “Life is Long Gamma” @DaliaGlickman pic.twitter.com/QKyjXvGnVJ Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb BTW to understand what is called “GMO”, see this http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/BCfzvMNc19″> pic.twitter.com/BCfzvMNc19 Permalink 4:10 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A Canadian brewer, @SteamWhistle is being harrassed by shills for listing “GMO free” on its beer. Turned out it is illegal in Canada to say “GMO free” (without some disclaimer): who wrote that law? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1011197845578436608 Permalink 3:44 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@jj_mllr New Blogpost: How two tweets about a simple coin toss experiment by @drob and @nntaleb can cause an academic existential crisis: Coin Tosses, Markov Chains, and an Existential Crisis. https://correlaid.org/blog/posts/markov-chains Permalink 2:40 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after 6 ½ years, someone found a mistake in Antifragile. Will correct ASAP. The ancients had a color for blue. All references on that are wrong. https://twitter.com/Shuwen22973519/status/1011008301549674496 Permalink 3:13 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Prove that limit Gamma[n,n]/Gamma[n]=½ as n->infinity pic.twitter.com/LL5XJpn9P6 Permalink 2:36 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Accidentally stumbling on a helpful identity on a Sunday morning… pic.twitter.com/7hrrm634r5 Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Big Ag using financially insecure journos/”sci communicators” to sell: GMO/Glyphosate = science HENCE technosalvation (pedophrasty: only they can help “starving children” ) Anecdote = “evidence based” Bezos got that better food distribution >>technoBS https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1010659272756088832 Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@NicuMihalache #skininthegame, the book by @nntaleb starts gently and rather predictably for those familiar with the Incerto series (and his Medium articles https://medium.com/@nntaleb ) then it takes you for a series of spins so that you want to tweet every other paragraph Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb MONSANTO Charlatan Watch: ask BS vendor @mark_lynas to produce systematic safety studies. Also ask him why he is in favor of both GMOs and Glyphosate (except that GMOs are an excuse to >3x pesticides & fry your soil). Charlatan! https://www.wsj.com/articles/confession-of-an-anti-gmo-activist-1529679465 via @WSJ Permalink 4:54 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@HypPioneer @nntaleb weighs in scam artists exploiting children to get what they want politically (open borders, war, etc.): https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 4:35 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ralph Nader Asks Former First Ladies: Why No “Heartfelt Concern for Tens of Thousands of Children Killed or Seriously Maimed” by Their Husbands’ Wars? – https://goo.gl/z4Ydz5 via @commondreams Permalink 3:18 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb All East Med citizens are nervously waiting for the selection of the new Byzantine Emperor. Permalink 3:42 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@thomas_quinlan Today’s word of the day: pedophrasty — the use of pictures of suffering children to advance an agenda. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-23/obama-kept-them-cages-pedophrastry-politicians-exposed This story via @zerohedge but term coined by the brilliant @nntaleb, here: https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Let me dispell some mistakes. Do not conflate farniente with laziness. In the Med, idleness is never a virtue unless the person gets rich or does great things while exercizing it. That’s the difference with other cultures both further North and further South. Gabish? Permalink 12:06 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@ErwanLeCorre Ethically-evolved sports will avoid micro-agressions, turn sports fields into safe spaces. Next progress: kill the social-construct which is “competency.” The ultimate step: competition is elitist and inherently discriminatory. No more losers: EVERYONE WINS. pic.twitter.com/ODXHngjQl8 Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Visually. We can also count the triangles pic.twitter.com/4AIJncTcRo Permalink 10:15 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@_benoux_ Exactly! I also like the clear distinction of @nntaleb on Sophrosyne (σωφροσύνη) vs. Rationality based on “graphs”, “facts” and “evidence”, all based on current state. Current state – one day – will collapse. It’s hybris to act on the presumption of immortality. pic.twitter.com/tqjX3d4x0C Permalink 10:04 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor. Permalink 5:54 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Laura, but Naples for me is not monuments for tourists, but 1) narrow streets with laudry hanging from the window, 2) a f*** you attitude that permeates the place, 3) A (tiny) remaining Greek-Orthodox minority… pic.twitter.com/yRV259U1up Permalink 5:49 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, fughotaboud Genova, better choice than Venice. You need to find a place WITHOUT Goethe-inspired visiting Northerners who don’t know what sitting at a terrace doing absolutely nothing means. These include de-Mediterranized Northern Italians. Permalink 4:01 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It always depends on the terrace. And I prefer Naples or Palermo. https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1010212840505069569 Permalink 3:50 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@GuyMorant Attention manipulation. Le génial essayiste Nassim Taleb partage un cas troublant d’utilisation d’une photo d’enfant pour court-circuiter la réflexion. “Pédophrastie”, retenez ce terme. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1010262470806659076 Permalink 10:54 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember that just as surgeons don’t look like surgeons strong men don’t look like athletes in ancient Greek sculptures. pic.twitter.com/VJSlKH3ZXx Permalink 2:44 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Which is why it was necessary to coin the term “pedophrasty”. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1010121223206993920 Permalink 1:45 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/860823348238061570 Permalink 1:17 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It continues… Mistake: he didn’t realize that people who really lift weights (instead of using machines) don’t have a thin waist. (cont) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1010214913627828230 Permalink 1:16 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. pic.twitter.com/3E29W3pr5u Permalink 12:37 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Never speak ill of the dead. But one can stay silent about him if he CAUSED deaths. If he advocated the Iraq War/WMD nonsense, then without REPENTANCE, another regime change/war, one must stay silent. For extreme cases: damnatio memoriae יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ Permalink 8:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People here aren’t getting the aberration: +Book written in US; author in US; publisher in US; readers (of US edition) in US. +Printed in China <=> Chinese censorship. +Publishers & Authors find this NORMAL. This is one side of Globalism Globalists need to explain. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Note that my problem with Chinese printers was resolved amicably (they accepted) but I am SHOCKED that no other author had the guts to stand up to the weirdness Chinese censorship of a US book by a US author. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book?CMP=share_btn_tw Permalink 6:34 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If BS Vendor Pinker’s @sapinker’s book was a scientific paper, it would have been retracted. Pinker has not answered question w/@DrCirillo : Why is he making Richardson say something OPPOSITE to what he said? All his “evidence” reposes on that. pic.twitter.com/75WpSF8Hi0 Permalink 5:31 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@Zilvera1 Brilliant van @nntaleb over salafisme.The bureaucrats and representatives of the“elites” (Van Aartsen) are fooled by the label. They treat Salafism as just a religion –with its houses of “worship” — when in fact it is just an intolerant political system. https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e Permalink 5:10 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@market_fox An example of why “doctors should not look like doctors” @nntaleb http://webuser.bus.umich.edu/dsosyura/Research%20Papers/FamilyDescentDec2016.pdf ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3HFYZhkFxR”> pic.twitter.com/3HFYZhkFxR Permalink 4:13 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To summarize thread above, rationality is not about “beliefs” but actions, #SkinInTheGame. It is not scientific to evaluate raw “beliefs”. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/KhOyJPJYkm Permalink 2:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@z3nblack Sometimes I find @nntaleb is standing against an army on his own. Then again, I realize these battles are not fought with guns or swords. One can project the power (& refinement) of their mind against the many, & the numbers *against* don’t matter. Interesting times to be alive. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009778944344776704 Permalink 2:39 PM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with Charlatan @SamHarrisOrg is that he talks about “rationality” without even remotely knowing what it means. Charlatan. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a Permalink 11:56 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@TMFStoffel This excerpt from @JohnCarreyrou’s Bad Blood shows Elizabeth Holmes carrying out a version of @nntaleb’s *Pedophastry* Dubious claims of a heinous act that are a smokescreen and weaken claims of real victims https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dh32aC4uCG”> pic.twitter.com/dh32aC4uCG Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Christianity is not *only* 2000 y old. It is a mutation of >4K y of Mediterranean-Anatolian creeds, mysteries, and mythologies. And its structure dates from the early Roman republic. Atheism has no #Lindy to build on, continue and progress from. https://twitter.com/Judgementional/status/1009777859769131008 Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@ggreenwald Is there any benefit or value at all in inquiring why these sorts of abuses generated so little attention and anger pre-2017, or should we just go ahead and ignore that question? See also: https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/KIND%20-%20Betraying%20Family%20Values.pdf https://twitter.com/McClatchyDC/status/1009771953597624320 Permalink 5:19 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan. 1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect. 2 Imposture “neuroscientist” when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*? https://twitter.com/Tweetsintoabyss/status/1009755755837194241 Permalink 4:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Haha! https://twitter.com/ChielMuurling/status/1009746908682874885 Permalink 3:38 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get that Christianity is about church!= state https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e Permalink 3:24 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Arabism and the bigoteering by Arabists. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ayMK7md7B6″> pic.twitter.com/ayMK7md7B6 Permalink 3:13 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish. 2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/Gore_Burnelli/status/1009734775236677632 Permalink 3:10 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams” https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 1:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@rbarilla Maybe you still don’t “get” it. Without a proper vocabulary to describe unethical behavior, people cannot easily call out charlatans who exhibit such behavior. Given all of Taleb’s work, charlatans can now more easily be called out, including ourselves. Permalink 11:18 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams” https://medium.com/p/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8 Permalink 12:26 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here is the text by Peter Henry Fonda https://twitter.com/ElenaHaskins/status/1009470781456183296 Permalink 9:23 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember the principle that we shd ignore actors’ own words, only listen to them when they mindlessly recite words written by pple with higher capacities of reasoning, when they impersonate much worthier humans. For the Romans, actors were the lowest form of human life. https://twitter.com/iamfonda/status/1009311889472421888 Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The paper with the initial results of the M4 Competition (with a small typo) can be found in the link https://www.scribd.com/document/382185710/IJF-Published-M4-Paper It can be also found in Science Direct shortly in the link https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.001 Good reading and apologies for the short delay. @robjhyndman Permalink 7:25 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A false accusation of rape has the side effect of inducing skepticism, causing genuine accusations to be taken less seriously. You are also harming the true victims. Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A light sentence is not sufficient. Under Hammurabi’s code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator. https://nyp.st/2tlIrz6 via @nypost Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Research by salaried laborers is becoming a rent-seeking citation ring consisting of large scale imitative rituals, with a decreasing number of results, an increasing cluelessness of participants, and a multiplication of useless rules. Permalink 5:45 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The antifragility from fragility equation! https://twitter.com/shaarsh2/status/1009415062287736833 Permalink 5:43 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@rma_adler @nntaleb Fantastic book, now my favorite gym shirt (self-designed). Best… pic.twitter.com/Dwc5kliWhx Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@ektrit Factual persecution of Christians now enshrined in Canadian Law. https://twitter.com/LifeSite/status/1009394685771767810 Permalink 4:17 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman discussing the replication crisis: “There are 1 million scientific publications per year. Do we have one million scientific discoveries per year?” Permalink 3:57 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My new policy is to respond to 10% of offenses, but hit > 10x harder. Better than responding to half the offenses, but hitting the victim twice harder. Exception is when I want to kill time in airports. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1009102652532240385 Permalink 1:29 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb With the statistical vigilante, the great Andrew Gelman and Joshua Miller @jben0 pic.twitter.com/iIqZZzcIJb Permalink 12:54 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@sahouraxo The war criminal who oversaw the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children, separating them from their families forever, now wants us to believe that he suddenly cares about children. https://twitter.com/billclinton/status/1008379614908035073 Permalink 11:06 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Work with @spyrosmakrid on weather/climate https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1009019563923697664?s=21 Permalink 5:37 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Excellent news! Now if someone labels you as “Islamophobe” for opposing Salafinazism, you can sue. But try to squeeze more, a lot more out of them. https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1008724249794826246 Permalink 4:10 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@drjohnm @EJSMD has called the #COI of clinicians being employed one of the greatest COIs. < As @nntaleb wrote about, if you want to own someone, employ them. Recently heard in the doctor’s lounge: “Shh. they are listening.” Said in jest but… https://twitter.com/RogueRad/status/1009024816463142912 Permalink 3:51 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This idiot @matt_blackwell is a pol “scientist” doing “statistics” & didn’t get that news isn’t spreading because a minor actress is complaining abt her car being burned, but because @Tesla. Would the news spread if it were one of the other 180K? #IYI https://twitter.com/matt_blackwell/status/1008858264933666817 Permalink 3:43 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) There is this myth of “long run” data is thin tailed because of aggregation and “Central Limit”. A lot of BS. Just like “democracy”, “populism”, “racism”,”enlightenment”, the term “Central Limit” is uttered by parrots clueless of what they are talking about. pic.twitter.com/ZkDr8kuyHs Permalink 3:14 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) There are tests to see how Central Limit works: Summing data (say weekly returns) should produce thinner tails. Not the case. pic.twitter.com/nFLqRpOet0 Permalink 3:07 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Nice example of #SkinInTheGame https://twitter.com/alanshearer/status/1008826999526346752 Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Page 2, luckily there is no picture of me this time. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1008706906490273792 Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Thanks Shant. I am tired of people who come to my twitter account, dedicated to BS busting, expecting to hear some feel-good motivational sh*t. Permalink 7:46 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Milke Lawler @mikeandallie has done a grrrrrrrreat job explaining the Central Limit BS to his children. Preasymtotic behavior is CENTRAL. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1008134655424565254 Permalink 6:30 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is the kind of JUNK that has destroyed firms, social science/economics. CLT works at various speeds under fat tailed distributions. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf cc:@spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/theoremoftheday/status/1008698630033854465 Permalink 6:24 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you are trained/selected to think in Static terms. pic.twitter.com/ObaRcQKqRJ Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a counterintuive property, an illustration of why you need to use DYNAMIC thinking into things that are dynamic, not STATIC. (cont) https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/1008327243280670720 Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 2 types of pple: Those who think in STATICS, those who think in DYNAMICS. Problem w/”intellectuals” & other idiots like @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein who become policymakers is that they can’t think in 2nd steps. Schools mismeasure intelligence w/low dimensional tests. pic.twitter.com/0Pl8LckQWJ Permalink 3:31 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule: the more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say anti-racism, anti-sexism), the more they will be used as a cover for unethical actions. Moral: remove all diversity rules for the sake of diversity. https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1008476181425893378 Permalink 2:33 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@AllonMessenberg My father always said: “If you go to work every day, you have no time to make money!” Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@MisterNuance Zakaria is a textbook example of what @nntaleb warns about: a fake “expert” who pays no price for being wrong. https://twitter.com/fareedzakaria/status/1007448216210731008 Permalink 11:09 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 150K-200K car fires per annum. You take one event & an emotional statement of an actress & turn it into a statement about the safety of @Tesla. And this is 2018. I am blocking any commentator who doesn’t get it. In this and other similar situations. Finito. Permalink 8:08 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath … a counterintuitive property of coin-tossing: If Alice tosses a coin until she sees a head followed by a tail, and Bob tosses a coin until he sees two heads in a row, then on average, Alice will require four tosses while Bob will require six tosses … https://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/1008231518324617216 Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Proper approach: count the rate of these things for @Tesla, compare to other auto-makers, & adjust by other safety statistics. I can’t believe that 18 years after Fooled by Randomness this type of bulls**t is still rampant. Another rule: Never listen to actors except on acting. https://twitter.com/marycmccormack/status/1007831286176571394 Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2-a) Every time I return from the W. Med it hits me there is *something* intense & sophisticated that’s different in the E. Med (i.e.,+Armenia/Georgia), reported since Byzantium. Turned out: The SILK ROAD & that Persian thingy Convinced @PZalloua to read @peterfrankopan’s book. Permalink 2:46 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is no argument in favor of pedophrasty that is not pedophrastic. (Circularity). https://twitter.com/elaines2cents/status/1008149614602514432 Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) One only criterion for (material) success: not having a schedule. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Barbara @chicaderock, please read books BY Seneca, who was the real thing (a doer), not something ON Seneca by some library rat with a modern perspective. They will miss something essential. https://twitter.com/chicaderock/status/1008055357141405697 Permalink 12:05 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Moronic @hardsci, just 1 and we know which one it is. https://twitter.com/hardsci/status/1008036534614835205 Permalink 12:00 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that any argument (such as the one now used for illegal immigration) that is supported by pictures/narratives of children is called PEDOPHRASTY. Actually, use of children should weaken an argument. pic.twitter.com/qZ7Qn5pHN2 Permalink 6:48 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes pic.twitter.com/u4QKlVPV2I Permalink 4:13 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The carpenter fallacy: do you hire a carpenter to understand the odds of a sequence at the roulette table? Or a probabilist? Moral: the more advanced a nondeterministic science the more it becomes the domain of the applied probabilist. Genetics is a probabilty problem. Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) The geneticist Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia, with Mount Lebanon in the background. THREAD: on the carpenter fallacy in genetics to follow. pic.twitter.com/EVVw9sUHvw Permalink 2:08 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@ThePradosh When you are halfway through #JackDaniels & start to read work by @nntaleb, you realize what #Millennials are truly are. #bedofprocrustes pic.twitter.com/aGyBVJzaom Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Convexity in Medicine: How Pharma cheats with the “evidence” (aside from P-hacking) cc:@MichaelSagnerMD pic.twitter.com/ONl8EUkx7t Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Just a reminder that Noah Smith @Noahpinion is a a pure BS Vendor before you read him on anything related to anything (s.a. Theranos & Skin in the Game). Gabish? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html Permalink 10:00 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The best surprise: a brand new gym in a converted mansion that belonged to a cousin of mine… pic.twitter.com/rLeJtOX9wi Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2/2 There are high demands to perform, indeed! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1007293724999733248 Permalink 6:16 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK. I found a local gym with barbells & a squat rack. Rushing there. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1007292750818168832 Permalink 6:14 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We should de-anonymizing the “peer-review” process: referees can be harmfully stupid or vicious w/o accountability. This idiot tried to reject paper w/@DrCirillo because he couldn’t translate that 4 page 8½ by 11 compressed 1-spaced =12 pages double-sp 6½ by 9. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/9wzwdtthZw Permalink 4:26 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Further, the same applies to “arm” and “hand”. pic.twitter.com/TZO2wuNtU5 Permalink 2:37 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The plot thickens: In Greek leg and foot are also πόδι, In Farsi both پا, but there is a more marked difference in Romance languages (gamba/piede) although pes in Latin can mean both. Permalink 2:31 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Like Phoenician, Aramaic, & Hebrew, the Lebanese lang. still uses the same word (ijr, rgl) for foot and leg in spite of 170 years of (failed) Arabization (foot in Arabic is قدم). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1007356478733410305 Permalink 12:48 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@oneraindrop A complex system has failed to act as expected by its designers, but has instead exhibites behavior that no one expected it to exhibit pic.twitter.com/gkPiDviKMX Permalink 7:17 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@thyagjs An important point from the SITG book by @nntaleb For those who do things, it is harder to talk about what they do. Reality doesn’t care about tawk. It is full of pauses and hesitations. Clear, non-hesitant speech is the domain of non-doers. Permalink 6:36 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 Here’s the most famous nutritionist in America, Walter Willett of Harvard, defending the use of seed oils, saying that new data that says they’re unhealthy isn’t relevant. Good example of why I no longer listen to these people. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/2016/04/13/diet-heart-ramsden-mce-bmj-comments/ Permalink 5:56 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb On the main difference between East Med and West Med (except for Provence) called here “milk of lions”. pic.twitter.com/scFhUxQZ6O Permalink 9:35 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot separate the Med diet from frequency. 1-FASTING Greeks were vegan 210 days. 2-Meat was eaten at festivals, in Yuge quantities, mostly FAT 3-Breakfast is a recent invention 4-“Dinner”=mostly mezze 5-Byphasic sleep 6-Hill/stairs climbing all the time 7-No seed oil Permalink 8:56 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Main lesson from the retraction (NEJM paper on Med diet): + Medicine is mostly (nonstandard) statistics + Medicine is abt convex dose-response NO expertise in biology/medicine will make up for it. PS- My paper on frequency/convexity in medicine was accepted. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/suvyboy/status/1007279809804857344 Permalink 8:29 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In Northern Phoenicia for the Weekend. Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, the real story is that @KarlreMarks was caught plagiarizing, then reacted exactly like a real plagiarist: he followed the maximally dishonorable route, digging then digging more. Permalink 2:53 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A new argument https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/1007028215343394816 Permalink 2:23 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite. Permalink 1:41 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here it is https://twitter.com/EmirChaabane/status/1007155547693633536 Permalink 12:02 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@sergioschloros This expression is recorded by in Homer “The proper meaning of ἀνανεύειν is to express dissent or refusal by throwing back the head, opposed to “κατανεύειν”, the corresponding gesture of assent or permission by nodding and bowing the head” http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0055%3Abook%3D9%3Acommline%3D468 Permalink 10:36 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb “τσου” as the Mediterranean “no”: A sound like “ts” (sucked lip) , coupled with a single nod, meaning “NO” (& a certain familiarity with the interlocutor). J2 Haplogroup countries: Phoenicia, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Sicily, Calabria, Western Syria. Any other? Permalink 10:30 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I thought I was the only one to call low IQ tawkers low IQ tawkers. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1006833565022031873 Permalink 8:19 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@financequant Wow! Opioids turned out to be addictive. Something we thought known for millennia but was, in fact, cleverly hidden by Big Pharma, probably in collusion with the FDA. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1006891422899949568 Permalink 7:59 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@primalpoly This @Harvard president’s email to alumni defends discrimination against Asian applicants, in the name of promoting ‘diversity’. How will this read in 20 years? http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/harvard-begs-to-discriminate.php?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=sw&utm_campaign=sw Permalink 6:08 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, “no” in Maltese, Sicilian, Lebanese, and various other Med languages is “tsk” Permalink 3:18 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only in Sicily. The same hotel is famous both for housing R. Wagner when he finished Parsifal and for hosting a decisive mafia convention — in addition to being a preferred spot for various improvised and less improvised “meetings”. pic.twitter.com/0tswQH8I04 Permalink 12:55 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/MimeticValue/status/1006595643467431936 Permalink 2:07 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L3ayno zghiré ma bi kabbér, L3ayno kbiré ma bi zaghgher. Permalink 2:00 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L zghir ma bi kabbérak w l kbir ma bi zaghghrak. Permalink 11:15 AM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Taxi driver to Malta’s airport: Where are you flying to? Me: Palermo. Driver: vacation? Me: No. Meeting. Silence the rest of the journey. Permalink 1:49 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Interesting. Because it is true. https://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986737264041578496 Permalink 12:21 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Returnless Risk? pic.twitter.com/ObgzkPbhfJ Permalink 8:28 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 6) To understand the Romans, essential Meds, who shunned doing things themselves but praised builders: “Caesar pontem fecit” means Ceasar *had a bridge built* (by others), not “built a bridge” as usually translated. Tr. into French would be “a fait bâtir un pont” not “a bâti”. Permalink 12:45 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Strange absence of Arabian genes (Nabatean, North & South), though possible flow from Maghrebis. Some Phoenician/Anatolian/Greek. Will increase sample & look at more sophisticated maps but still. pic.twitter.com/5VCaUZMc6k Permalink 2:47 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The main difference is gh is pronounced 3, h with a bar=7, q = 2, x=sh … My only mistery: how did barra/juwwa get to them from Aramaic? Unless @safaitic is right and the Arabs who took the Maghreb spoke a branch of safaitic pic.twitter.com/OXF5J0Ce0c Permalink 1:08 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb He seems to be playing the agency problem of bureaucrats. People w/#SkinInTheGame are more interested in their fridge than remote (or even less remote) geopolitics & willing to settle w/peace as the default preference. Governments & bureaucrats have exact opposite preferences. https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1005795015287767046 Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@JSuchJ “True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.” Great life insight from @nntaleb foreword to Ed Thorp’s A Man for All Markets pic.twitter.com/fTcqE88T0T Permalink 4:10 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Amos Tversky, the research partner of Kahneman, remarked that he “merely studied in a systematic way things about behaviour that were already known to advertisers and used-car salesmen”. #Lindy Evil nudgeboys Thaler-Sunstein do the exact opposite. https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/1338695 Permalink 3:53 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Now the mystery: there were a lot of Maltese-Lebanese trading families in Leb: +Abella, Sabella, Mamo, Camilleri, Aquilina, Borg (Borji), Mcallef +SALIBA in both (my mother’s original last name is Ghosn Saliba, not Ghosn) Phoenician practice to trade w/cousins across Med ? Permalink 1:55 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mr President, we shall start the invasion at 1400 hours. https://twitter.com/stevept/status/1005484647688491009 Permalink 4:19 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@trishankkarthik Once you come to #RWRI, you will never see the world the same way again @financequant @nntaleb https://twitter.com/l0bbelt/status/1005560429400264704 Permalink 2:28 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@normonics I like to say: GMO is like everyone in the world crossing the street together at the same time Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 5) Another reason there large entities don’t work in the Med, causing a scale problem: you cannot be alpha if you are not free & self-employed (or the boss), an employee of Goldman Sachs is of a lower status than a local doctor. Permalink 11:22 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can tell Maltese is a bit more Arabic than Lebanese: ecclesiatical & nonArabic Semitic terms are often from Latin/Italian whereas Leb uses Aramaic (Ġesù not Yasu3, Eva not 7awwa…) Means Maltese didn’t have these words in their corpus, which must have been Siculo-Arabic. Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) For instance to be Med you need to both disrespect hard work and respect success, exactly the opposite of the “work ethics” & the worship of labor in the non-necessarily Prostestant North. Permalink 9:44 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@Safaitic @nntaleb is on point. Stories of a grand Yemeni-Arab exodus following the collapse of the Marib dam are simply mythology. In no other field are legends taken at such face value. The term “Arab” and “Arabic” were appropriated and reimagined by Islamic-period writers to refer(cont. Permalink 3:00 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge: Pinning Beginning (i.e., past) and End (i.e., present) and looking at probabilities of what could have happened in between is very, very useful in GENETICS and LINGUISTICS. Even if you don’t have the exact proba, you get the structure. My solution here. pic.twitter.com/qGs50urYrC Permalink 2:11 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Which means the 2aysi( qaysi)-Yamani fights could be infighting, a division that mimics the Byzantine Green-Blue one –the Druze are almost entirely Anatolian, genetically closest to Kurds. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qays–Yaman_rivalry Permalink 1:41 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is (in history textbooks) a story of Peninsular tribes settling into Lebanon (largely from Yemen). But genetics don’t show it: the Yemen story is a fabrication. Now @Safaitic is hinting that these tribes were from the Southern Levant. This can explain linguistic puzzles. https://twitter.com/Safaitic/status/1004991524944449536 Permalink 1:33 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The French have tried to become Meds for 2000 years. They can’t: except for spots, Germanics speaking a Latin language. Permalink 2:45 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Point is; if you’re not Med, you’ll never understand the Mediterranean. You can spend 31 y in Oxford reading “classics”, all that sh*t, & still understand nothing about the Mediterranean. Now, if you’re not Med, the closest you’ll ever get is via squid ink & Moustaki. Salve. Permalink 2:40 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Malta pic.twitter.com/36QTR8UZMc Permalink 12:58 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@cindyturlevnon كل استاذ مدرسة بعيّط ع تلميذ و بيجبرو يقول نعم غلطان وبيكون عم يمارس تعنيف لغوي. نحنا بطور لڤنن رح نوزّع مناشير توعية للمدارس عن الالفاظ السريانية بلغتنا اللبنانية، كمان مندعي كل بي و ام ما يستخفوا بالإرث الكبير يلي اخدناه من السرياني لغة جدودنا. #TurLevnon pic.twitter.com/GE45AX4C7v Permalink 9:40 AM – 8 Jun 2018

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Pedophrasty

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