Monthly Archives: December 2018

Intelligence , Charlatans, IQ, Meditation, HYPERTENSION, Lindy, NYT, globalist/localist, Macron, Micron | Twitter

@nntaleb 19- A general problem w/social “scientists” & IQ idiots: they can intuit the very terms they are using. Verbalism; they have a skin-deep statistical education & can’t translate something as trivial as “correlation” or “explained variance” into meaning, esp. under nonlinearities. Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@normonics It is clearly a point of identity for many. Exposing this and other fragilities as early and decisively as possible is the major project of those interested in an Antifragile world.   Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb John, refreshing to have a physicist. The rule of thumb: if a metric explains less than 1- x% of the variance, it is not a metric. In physics the x can be as low as 10^14. In engineering, often <10^5. In psychology often >75% of the variations come from variance. Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@AhsanDeliri It seems IQ is a special sacred cow. The minute @nntaleb decided to really investigate what it is, how it’s measured, what it implies, what it leaves out, how it’s implications are inflated, all the knives came out. Permalink 12:39 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #happyholidays #safetynet Permalink 3:24 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Peterson I said psycho”metrics is about a nonlinear pseudometric that shows mostly how dumb someone is. Try another question & make it “intelligent”. Permalink 3:15 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@BDSixsmith According to Lebanese festive traditions, Nassim St Nicholas Taleb visits your house at midnight, eats the bowl of squid ink pasta that you left for him and leaves free weights and copies of Montaigne’s Essays for your children. Permalink 1:58 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Utterly confused. The Peninsulars hate Turkey even more than they hate Infidels.   Permalink 12:27 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 18- (continuing graph). So far none of the IQ-psycholophasters seem to grasp that local correlation is never correlation is the commonly understood sense. So when they say “IQ works well between 70 and 130” it means: “IQ works well between 0 and ~85, maybe”. Permalink 11:44 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “So it appears that the church founders really wanted Christ to have skin in the game; he did actually suffer on the cross, sacrifice himself, and experience death.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #MerryChristmas #books #quote #Christ Permalink 8:53 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merry Christmas my friends! Permalink 7:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 17- A graph that shows the synthesis of my opinion on IQ and the “reseasrch” results about it. Permalink 6:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 16- So Far: “IQ” isn’t a measure of “intelligence” but “unintelligence”; it loses its precision as you move away from 70 (left tail). Where it’s most hyped (*some* jobs) it predicts ~15- 63% of the time, ~10% if you demassage data. It it were a physical test, wd be rejected. Permalink 4:56 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@TricksterDoesIt Taleb, I’m not sure I accept your stated correlation. Many of these studies have massaged the data.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:04 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (hint). Permalink 8:48 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 15-” IQ” is most predictive of performance in military training, w/correlation~.5, (which is circular since hiring isn’t random). QUIZ: translate the correlation into percentage of the time IQ provides a correct answer there. Permalink 7:46 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 14- Any measure of “intelligence” w/o convexity is sterile.   Permalink 1:59 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 13- For a measure to be a measure it needs to be: + UNIQUE + MONOTONIC or, at least + TRANSITIVE Hence IQ is not a measure, but something for psycholophasters to BS about. Permalink 12:02 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 12- If someone came up w/a NUMERICAL “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or oth physical qty, you ‘d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it & it will become an official measure. That’s what happened to “IQ”. Permalink 11:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- A robust use of “IQ” is for low scores for special needs pple. But then practically ANY measure would work to detect problem & improvement. Or no measure: just a conversation #Lindy. But then psycholophasters are using it like cholesterol, transferring from tails to body. Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- #SkininTheGame shows that the only robust measure of “rationality” & “intelligence” is survival, avoidance of ruin/left tail/absorbing barrier, (ergodicity). Nothing that does not account for ability to survive counts as a measure of “intelligence”– just philosophaster BS. Permalink 10:39 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@JSuchJ Interested in the ideas and books written by Nassim Taleb @nntaleb ? In this long podcast we discuss them (in Spanish) with @TorrasLuis (another RWRI alumni), @_PabloMB, @ValueInvestingS and @The_Godas   Permalink 10:35 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- It is PRECISELY as a quant that I doubt “IQ”. I’ve spent 34 years working w/”High IQ” quants. I’ve rarely seen them survive, not blow up on tail events. Those high IQ who have survived like @financequant /Renaissance happen to be yuuugely street smart   Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- IQ is an academic-contrived notion. And the problem is that in academia there is no difference between academia and the real world; in the real world there is. Which explains why @primalpoly (while an honest resesrcher) can’t see where we are coming from. Permalink 8:38 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”. Remember the 1998 blowups. Permalink 8:19 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@DrBeauHightower Ever been to a Mensa meeting? Bunch of old dudes wearing sandals and socks that spend their time playing board games and chastising the world for chasing material goals. Nihilism plus backgammon. Permalink 8:17 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- If you take a Popperian-Hayekian view on intelligence, then you would realize that to measure it you would need to know the SKILLS needed in the ecology, which is again a fallacy of intellectual hubris. David Sloan Wilson joined the debate.   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Seems like Taleb only cares about stuff that matters IN THE REAL WORLD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- If you renamed IQ , from “Intelligent Quotient” to FQ “Functionary Quotient” or SQ “Salaryperson Quotient”, then some of the stuff will be true. It measures best the ability to be a good slave. IYIs want to build a top-down world where IYIs have the edge. Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If many millionaires have IQs around100, & 58 y.o. back office clercs at Goldman Sachs or elsewhere an IQ of 155 (true example), clearly the measurement is less informative than claimed.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Look at the hordes with “high IQ” (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion. Yuuge survivorship bias. 37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998! Permalink 6:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation. Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones. Permalink 6:25 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs. 1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John) Permalink 6:22 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@librairiefrance RT @hugowiz: “Ce serait plus simple, d’un point de vue théologique, si Dieu était Dieu et Jésus un homme comme n’importe quel autre prophète, ansi que l’islam le voit, ou que le judaïsme voit Abraham.” Jouer sa peau @nntaleb @BellesLettresEd #JoyeuxNoel Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Psychologists teaching you abt “intelligence” is like choirboys teaching you racketeering, turtles teaching you flying, or nuns teaching you how to rob a bank. Remember they live off charitable contributions or, worse, state support. #Skininthegame Permalink 12:33 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb OK, having played cop with @davidgraeber now I can safely support him in *some* of his missions. Permalink 12:13 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) Correspondence with Maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath : mathematics and humor. Maestro, Rest in Peace.   Permalink 10:55 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) The passing of @CutTheKnotMath: every Saturday morning I feel his absence, as my routine was to solve one of his puzzles. He was generous, patient, & committed to mathematics done right. We’ll finish his “Probability Riddles” book. @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb @StuartJRitchie Permalink 9:14 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lesson 1 : Never attack someone publicly unless you know what they know about your work. (Asymmetry) Lesson 2: Never mess with nonpsychologists/real people if you are just a psychologist. Fellow @stuartjrichie didn’t see that I am basing mistakes from HIS own book on IQ .   Permalink 8:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@ShehabiFares The so called “Syrian revolution” in one picture..! Permalink 7:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Takes correlation of existing pple in profession w/IQ (even assuming no bias & stats were replicable). Now take a cohort of “high IQ” pple and correlation with a category called “failure”. What does it show? Permalink 6:53 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The real non-datamined (i.e. w/potential cherrypicking) IQ study is the Terman study. Shows “geniuses” fare no better (or only slightly better, there was a debate) than socioeconomic peers. Epi-style studies in Medicine are now rejected (85% don’t replicate). Only cohort. Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@normonics There is a deep satisfaction in exposing shills — you are fighting for the common good. And it is effective. For instance, our bottom up exposure of @kevinfolta led to the point where even other shills have disassociated from him — no one is buying his toxic lies any longer   Permalink 5:01 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Did you know, a jump from 1 meter makes your legs stronger, a jump from 100 meters kills you. A nation of 8m is NO THE SAME as a nation of 300m. SCALE MATTERS. You can not scale communism (small scale, family), hard to copy Swissness AT SCALE/maybe impossible. @nntaleb   Permalink 4:51 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams US Institute of “Peace” – pushes war, as it always has. We are forced to pay millions for a war-making “peace” institute. Orwell shits on us.   Permalink 10:08 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Make sure you 1) spread the list or, better, 2) help expose shills For instance this effort helped us get @henryimiller who wrote fake scientific articles & smear scientists in Forbes & @ProSyn lose his job there & at the @HooverInst For the sake of trust in science!   Permalink 5:29 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LINDY: we get the following: Survival rate improves past a stage: once you’ve survived long enough, time works for you even if not power law. This comes straight out of an absorbing barrier model. Note that absorbing barrier is necessary since death/survival are discrete events Permalink 12:44 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@Aaragorn004 as @nntaleb said surgeons shouldn’t look like surgeons!   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 9:19 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb So the Persians celebrate #Yalda night while the Levant celebrate sol invictus the predecessor of Christmas at about the same time.   یلدا مبارک   Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Year in Review (cont) Monsanto is no longer. Bayer that bought Monsanto lost >$40 billion in cap. The idea that GMO = “science” & Glyphosate = “safe” is going bust as no longer propped up by the propaganda machine. With the death of Monsanto, victory for science. Permalink 7:05 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6) An aspect of the @davidgraeber affair: is partaking of a lynch mob (in the form of approach in thread) morally acceptable, meaning it is only bad if one is the initiator? This is the classical problem of diffusion of responsibility: is is OK if OTHERS are doing it too? Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@EdmondShami Man, the way @nntaleb cracks down on academics is one of the most awesome things ever haha Permalink 4:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Most problems in the world are perpetuated by bureaucrats (ignorant of complex systems) with no #skininthegame “trying to help”. Put the State Department on sabbatical & see how peace will organically erupt. Also the past was more peaceful than claimed.   Permalink 4:07 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can easily understand that someone can hate Donald Trump. But hating Trump more than loving peace is not a morally defensible position. Permalink 3:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@trishankkarthik “Abstinence much easier than moderation.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:25 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@phl43 I’d pay to see the faces of antiwar leftists in the 1970’s if they were told that 40 years later the Left, including many of their older selves, would be lamenting the resignation of a warmongering general.   Permalink 3:45 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Trump ends illegal war in Syria. Trump may end 17 year losing battle in Afghanistan. Mattis: You’re not defending America. Well boo hoo hoo, Mattis. This is what America voted for.   Permalink 3:02 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@Ian56789 “Zuckerberg Must Resign”: Facebook Lets Corporations Read, Delete Your Messages   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review (cont) 4- Published 7 papers in journals mostly single author, main one is   on speed of Law of Large Numbers 5- Figured out to avoid seed oil, called “healthy”. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:51 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@normonics These fucking people are sick Book a plane ticket and go fight ISIS yourself   Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- My take on the Curse of Dimensionality. We’ve known about it for >30 years yet some idiotic geneticists keep doing multi-genes studies (especially the GMO types). People in computer science are vastly more aware. Also see “computational irreducibility” by Wolfram. Permalink 8:11 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Here’s the guy who actually took a trip to Syria with McCain and Lindsey Graham and successfully pushed for the US to ARM TERRORISTS to overthrow the Syrian government. If I were Little Marco I would STHU about Syria because blood of thousands is on his hands.   Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Attempts by some to identify “intelligence genes” reveals statistical incompetence: for monogenic traits/mutations we can identify genes, for > there is a CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY meaning we need a yuuuuge sample of >10^30 people to have an idea about multivariate properties. Permalink 7:57 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- The problem with “liberals” tagging to someone an identity/race/category to minoritify is that it makes race salient so you end up particularizing the general. Humans have zillions of dimensions & it gets absorbed into a category. Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4- Aside from LLN, idiots make claims abt the distribution of maxima from individuals. As I wrote in TBS, if all terrorists were Sunni Salafis, only ~ 0.0001 of Sunni Salafis are terrorists meaning you are wasting statistical time discriminating ag single individuals. Permalink 6:53 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My forth book in March (Vol 1, Techn Incerto) shows how little mechanistic statisticians undertand the law of large numbers (LLN). Some claims can only be made for large aggregates. The LLN requires muuuuuuuch more than they think.   Permalink 6:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 6:38 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@BrankoMilan For a change Trump does something reasonable: reduce killings by withdrawing US forces (at least he says so) from Syria and “internationalist rule-based liberals” attack him because they want….a war. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nitingoyal An amazing thread on stats and how statistical ignorance leads to over medication.   Permalink 6:29 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- What people don’t get about “race” ≠ or “heritability” of traits: even it these were true & not fabrications, they wd be dominated by IDIOSYNCRATIC differences. If pple from Mars had an “IQ” lower than earth by 5%, w/variance you wouldn’t see it in ANY 2-paired individuals. Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5) @davidgraeber might not have been at the initiation of the lynch mob, just an active promoter of it (which, ethically, makes no difference). Permalink 5:47 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@unherd @nntaleb’s 2013 demolition of false certainties is the perfect book to re-read in an era of noise and confusion, writes @peterfranklin_   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) and there is a meta-vagueness; @davidgraeber then accuses those who debunk him like @QuilletteM as belonging to “alt-right” Permalink 5:25 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The approach for rounding up an academic lynch mob used by @davidgraeber 1) vageness of accusation 2) the accusation, while vague, has an association with a precise sinister past (appeal to emotion) 3) wording leaves no possibility for scientific/critical scrutiny Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MonaresTI I also had the privilege of being a student at the #RWRI. I learned a lot about statistics in real life. A doctor must ensure the safety of the least ill patient and never take away an opportunity to the one that is most in danger. SKIN IN THE GAME Permalink 4:37 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Important to remember: 1) guidelines for bloodpressure change frequently. More than 83 million adults would be recommended for high blood pressuretreatment under the new (2018) system compared to 72 million under the prior recommendations. @nntaleb   Permalink 2:50 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@golchhaJ Came across the French word ‘glander’ / ‘glandouiller’ through @nntaleb : “It means “to idle”, though not “to be in a state of idleness” (it is an active verb). Gandouiller denotes enjoyment. [It] is what children without soccer moms do when they are out of school.” Permalink 1:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Permalink 5:27 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- There is a category of bubblegumheads (say @jaketapper ) who not only overgeneralize but misgeneralize on top: say turning the pullout in Eastern Syria as a US vs Putin. Quite insulting for the citizens there with #skininthegame Permalink 2:04 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Permalink 1:37 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There has been an epidemic of generalizing every tiny individual & particular conflict in life into something large & systemic, tied to “exploitation”, “race”, “gender”, “colonialism”, & ancestral “privilege”. Same pple view the world top-down & see benefits in centralization. Permalink 1:35 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Germany’s most important journal Der Spiegel says top journalist faked stories for years. @nntaleb   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review 2018 vs plan 1- Was more intransigeant 2- Went to Malta after yeaaaaars of trying 3- Permalink 7:22 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@Marcellenassif Sample of a Lebanese Christmas Eve ;) Featuring the FAMILY Permalink 6:17 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When two “experts” diagree, consider the possibility at least one of them is not an expert.   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My definition: 1- Something is locally Antifragile with respect to a variable x (that is in a range, for x ∊ [L, H]) if and only if it has a locally convex response to such variable (i.e. f(x+∆x)+f(x-∆x)> 2 f(x) for all x ∊ [L, H]). [GAMMA APPROACH] 2- [VEGA APPROACH] Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, thank you Twitter @jack for protecting us from “state actors” from Saudi Arabia trying to dig information about us. In my case Saudi Arabia can easily get information about me, they don’t need hackers. This was sent yesterday to pple targeted by the “state actors”. Permalink 2:58 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “Saudi Arabia Is Going Bankrupt” Taleb Exclaims After Seeing Kingdom’s Latest Budget | Zero Hedge   Permalink 5:21 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@Barnes_Law In depth technical analysis explains how Silver’s forecasts “feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis” applying double standards to measuring his on modeling.   Permalink 4:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Arabia is going to go bankrupt.   Permalink 2:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@ole_b_peters Let’s never think of utility as a currency. Currency conversion is linear, whereas the whole point of utility is its non-linearity. If we think utility is a currency, i.e. linear, we’ll miss its reference-point dependence and start believing in prospect theory. Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@Lipsie What FRACTAL LOCALISM looks like in the realm of vegetables. Tweet sponsored by @nntaleb & @VeggiesAreNoIdiots Permalink 6:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM & SCALABILITY Compare: Greek Cyprus to Greece (in spite of the former’s yuuuge problems since 1974) Singapore to China (and or Malaysia) Dubai to what is called “Saudi” Arabia Switzerland to Germany Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “Gli amministratori sono una maledizione da sempre – in ogni angolo del pianeta, in qualsiasi business o attività e in tutte le epoche storiche.” Rischiare grosso @nntaleb @ilSaggiatoreEd #libro #citazione #business Permalink 4:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My side of the story clearly presented. As the saying goes, an ounce of algebra clears a ton of BS, even when the BS comes from someone with >3 million twitter followers.   Permalink 7:13 PM – 17 Dec 2018

@isaacfab00 My attempt to demystify the @nntaleb vs @NateSilver538 twitter war.   Permalink 9:41 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Nation-State is an agricultural concept made by a ruler to control & better own his peasants. It is highly inimical to the Mediterranean mind. The Polis is a more adapted unit. Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony “It takes 1,000 IQ points to out wit an aggressive tinkerer” -@nntaleb Rule of thumb (#Heurstic) never trust someone who has a weird obsession with “IQ”. They’re a sucker, someone who tinks (slowly) they understand the world but dont…   Permalink 5:44 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb III- The US was created to be bottom up, with the Federal Gov taking a residue of spending. But when pple spend (abstract) money that is not theirs, a disproportionate amount of fat grows, & we now have yuuuge money spent on nonsense. Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb II- From the idea that communism works only on a small scale (if it ever works)=> Taxation, as in Switzerland should be bottom up. You pay in proportion to where you can SEE the money spent. 1st to the commune; Commune pays the leftover to the county, county to … to federation Permalink 3:51 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Great thread illuminating the FRACTAL LOCALISM project. 1) Communism works on a very small scale. 2) But the flip is that it has only worked with a community that is highly homogeneous (originating from Eastern Europe) and monstrously sub-ethnocentric.   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@Extrachelle Retweeting this again bcz it’s my favourite 2018 tweet so far.   Permalink 1:59 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “… il promotore più attendibile di un prodotto è il cliente.” Rischiare grosso di @nntaleb ed. @ilSaggiatoreEd Come puoi vedere, ho acquistato il libro ;-) (11 ottobre 2018) Permalink 11:57 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture @elonmusk Permalink 7:01 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I view both globalists and nationalists as the same crap: a reduction in dimensionality, a destruction of the variegated intermediate fractal layers between individual and humanity. Both aim at monoculture.   Permalink 3:32 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As you lower \mu you can see the Lindy zone and the nonlindy area. Collapse is crossing the orange line. X axis is years. Permalink 3:07 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism is NOT nationalism.   Permalink 1:37 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Lindy   Permalink 1:31 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Harry is a doctor and a RWRI alumni.   Permalink 7:19 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Live Love #Jounieh! Joy to the world By @joe.sokhn #WeAreLebanon Permalink 7:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@kimberlitepipe1 “English ‘manners’ were imposed on the middle class as a way of domesticating them, along with instilling in them the fear of breaking rules and violating social norms.” @nntaleb It took me 30+ yrs to realize this and make a change. Still difficult at times, woof woof woof. Permalink 6:51 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Ancestral architecture: no Euclidian geometry, high dimensionality. Even pyramids when close show rich micro-patters (Met in NYC). Today’s architecture is “smooth”, Eucledian, & of low dimensionality. I am most comfortable in a forest, a cave, or a Gaudi bldg. Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Doctors are statistically naive & their statisticians are imbeciles; they have a hard time understanding non-linear dose-response so they binarize. And pharma takes them for a ride by bucketting numbers (mildly ill + very ill produces an illusion of risk for mildly ill). Permalink 5:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb HYPERTENSION In #Antifragile: Pharma needs to medicate the mildly “sick” (hypertensive) as 1) these live long 2) >100 more midly “sick” ppl than very sick, so more profitable to “cure” the healthy Pharma reclassifies the “sick” to get clients. But relation HBP-risk is nonlinear! Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@ektrit As Taleb @nntaleb says, Modern Architects design to impress other Modern Architects.   Permalink 4:21 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@laurentozon L’arnaque c’est de confondre localisme et protectionnisme national. Lorsque vous êtes à Nice vous êtes plus proche de Gêne que de Brest, Saint-Jean-de-Luz ou Lille. MLP est centralisatrice et sa gestion du RN le démontre depuis des années.   Permalink 2:44 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon That’s how the sun rises in #Beirut! Good morning everyone! Have a nice Sunday By @mahdifad #WeAreLebanon Permalink 11:25 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Being dumb and #Antifragile has worked out pretty well for me…   Permalink 2:53 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Lindy is not a powerlaw but surely has local such behavior for first say 2000-10000 years. Good enough for me. A yuuge result. Permalink 1:30 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is not ART you can optionally observe in a gallery, but places and neighborhoods WE live in. We have skin in the game and the architect doesn’t. Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an additional problem with architects and modernity: reduction in the fractal dimensions of our world.   Permalink 4:37 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The problem is architects building structures to impress other architects –but plumbers don’t act on impressing other plumbers. Any activity where agents impress peers (architects, academia) rather than satisfying the needs constituents ends up rotting. #SkininTheGame   Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb New mathematics for the Lindy Effect, expressed as absorbing barrier (extinction barrier). This is the INTUITION of the method. Yuuuge results once we use Girsanov to include drift, or switch to geometric Brownian motion. #Lindy @financequant Permalink 4:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Classical mistake by historians and philologists treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. (Lond discussion in #TheBlackSwan)   Permalink 3:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb M4 is a SYSTEMATIC test of machine learning techniques, not some cherry picked concoction in an “evidence based” “data science” paper. There is NO other systematic test of predictability than @spyrosmakrid’s “M” competitions. On to M5.   Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (Journalistic) noise is to signal what a cancer cell is to a healthy one. Permalink 3:08 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@NECSI It is the degree of opacity and uncertainty in a system, as well as asymmetry in effect, rather than specific model predictions, that should drive the precautionary measures. Push a complex system too far and it will not come back. Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Dec 2018

@john_f_hamer “It takes a lot of skills to be virtuous without being boring.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am plagiarizing @HarryDCrane for my own course next spring, particularly the last sections on Antifragile.   Permalink 5:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The main point from the M4 competition is not that traditional stats > machine learning, but that BOTH have a horrible record; we cannot use forecasting for any RISKY exposure. Hence a protocol for precaution in specific domains.   Permalink 5:17 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wrote 4 Op- Eds in the NYT so this is not a matter of access. I just despise them. Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What we calls different conservatism is militarism. Kristop has the intellectual rigor and clarity of thought of a poorly boiled cauliflower.   Permalink 4:53 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Remember that the NYT, while promoting platitudinous & vague notions such as “integrity”, “truth”, etc. was behind the Iraq war, regime change, and other monstrosities. The NYT is a cover for warmongers & managed to convert the pseudo-left to militarism. Permalink 3:55 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 3:47 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When someone announces, self-referentially, “I have integrity and virtue”, look for the fraud. If NYT wanted to show *virtue* they shd say: “We take RISK for the Truth, even if uncomfortable to us & causes us to be ostracized by the MONOCULTURE/Weapon makers” No virtue w/o Risk Permalink 3:38 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Science is about observables; decisions, risk, life, profits and wisdom are about unobservables. Permalink 3:32 PM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Correction: Feb 11-15 Permalink 9:10 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@DrMichaelBonner Ousia, hypostasis, prosopon, etc. are often used interchangeably, and cannot be translated sensibly into other languages. Permalink 8:46 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My piece on the Lebanese language.   Permalink 7:21 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Cancelled my subscription to @LOrientLeJour, not bec they refused to publish my skeptical article on language, but for the INCOHERENCE of their management who claimed to be “balanced” by only publishing Arabists. MTV has no trouble w/the argument.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) For a nationalist others are like “nonelephant animals”. For a localist others are cousins; some are brothers. Permalink 4:56 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3) Both nationalism & abstract universalism cause blowups. Kantian Universalism is flawed: It you treat all children equally for Christmas, you will neglect your own. Just as you are obligated to give preference to your children, others are obligated to do so with their own… Permalink 4:54 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2) The danger of Nationalism is an absorption of values: lives of others don’t count: Both H & W Bush counted only U.S. soldiers. For Salafis, lives of infidels don’t count. For a localist everyone counts, but your obligation to family members is greater. Permalink 4:51 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb NATIONALISM: there is an individual, then nation, little above. Causes Wars: outside lives don’t exist. FRACTAL LOCALISM: individual ⊂ various tribes (family, friends…) ⊂ tribes ⊂ … Humanity. NEVER exclusive: One (me) can ⊂ Greek & Lebanese tribes+US +Mediterraneism. Permalink 4:47 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@Apocalypticaly @nntaleb might find this to be funny.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb We are opening scholarships for RWRI (Real World Risk Institute) Feb 10-14 2019 in NYC   Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The saying that it takes much more energy to displace than install falsehood is itself a falsehood 1) Sticky “falsehoods” are beneficial or useful for survival (placebo, superstition) 2) Falsehood can only persist if #Lindy 3) Nonhelpful falsehoods tend to collapse very quicky Permalink 11:45 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture Permalink 9:07 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@moshejoshua For anyone who has read @nntaleb already knows, this statement to be the harbinger and start of the end. Permalink 4:39 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Let me be clear about intolerance against intolerance. The rule is that People (say Salafis) whose platform is EXPLICITLY denying democracy (or free speech) should not use democracy (or free speech) to reach political power. Permalink 1:46 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Nightmare! Someone citing me in EXACTLY opposite of the meaning: Being “intolerant against intolerance” does NOT mean tagging people as fascist or somethinist SO you can muzzle them. @davidgraeber’s tactic is tagging people w/o due process, witches to be hunted.   Permalink 1:39 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@Stefano_Peron And conclusion: when u have heavy tails and low signal noise ratio, convexity and layering exposition is better then forecast!@nntaleb   Permalink 10:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb With ⁦Isabella and @Stefano_Peron⁩, RWRI alumni who came from Italy (Treviso) to attend the ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ M4 Conference. Permalink 9:45 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The NKS by @stephen_wolfram is #Lindy Thoughts by “scientists” like Dyson who dismissed it (without reading it) aren’t Lindy.   Permalink 8:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Econometrics has been a total disaster. Permalink 6:53 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Spyros ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ : the most accurate machine learning method is worse than the worst standard “statistical” one. Permalink 6:46 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Where @davidgraeber is slowly learning that if you use a lynch mob against someone (under argument using freedom of expression), someone may turn a lynch mob against you (under same freedom of expression). #symmetry   Permalink 3:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can’t predict business success, but you can predict business failure: someone who writes lengthy and frequent emails. Permalink 3:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I confirm. Harry’s undergrad class >>> so-called social scientists.   Permalink 3:53 PM – 10 Dec 2018

@polemitis “I have been wrong about most things most of my life…tell me something I don’t know… the key is to have a convex distribution to returns when I am right vs I am wrong” – @nntaleb #m4conference @Uni_of_Nicosia @nyutandon Permalink 7:25 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Scott Armstrong is 81. I will remember to scrutinize what he eats at lunch/dinner. Permalink 6:35 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am supposed to be an unpleasant.   Permalink 6:32 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@LBMaronites R.I.P to the great Lebanese poet Maurice Awad. He devoted his life to modernizing poetry in the Lebanese language & even translated the Bible to the Lebanese language. He was nominated to a Nobel Prize in 2015. A true treasure from our country! Permalink 1:36 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@tonyblaitz And why did France spearhead the war against Ghaddafi in Libya? Why is France solidly behind Paul Biya and Cameroon in their quest to exterminate the people of the English-Speaking Southern Cameroon? Permalink 12:05 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb President Micron, You don’t want other countries to interfere in the affairs of France And/or sypport the #YellowVestProtests rebels. Why did France support the jihadi headcutters in Syria? Please explain, President Micron. Permalink 6:14 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Not good   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Latest by @PZalloua of the Lebanon-East Med Population Genetics Project. Ancient DNA of Phoenician remains indicates discontinuity in the settlement history of Ibiza   Permalink 2:35 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NonMeek Here’s a tailored comic strip for your upcoming M4 -lecture in NY. This ought to capture the gist of it [intensity > frequency]. #fattails Permalink 1:49 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NicolasTabardel You seem to still be using the left/right paradigm, when the debate has shifted to another dimension (globalist/localist). Permalink 12:21 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Χρόνια Πολλά !   Permalink 4:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Yellow vests. Some surprisingly excellent demands: – Banning Lobbies (8) – Smaller Banks (5) – Banning MONOCULTURE, GMOs, Glyphosate (20) – Anti Foreign Interventionism (22) – Pol. Diversity of Media (15) – Frexit (9) Some questionable ones (3, 2) . #GiletsJaunes #YellowVests Permalink 3:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Fractal Localism   @digvijoy_c Permalink 5:43 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Ending the poll earlier because more answers can come in, but only suckers wait for answers. Future Taleb had the most votes but Big Ron is the winner. Permalink 5:19 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Political Clarity under Complexity, & fractal localism. Permalink 4:39 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is a CENTRAL result: you don’t get peace forcing pple to hold hands & sing Kumbaya by the campfire. You get peace via fractal LOCALISM. The usual idiotic AUB-style pseudoleft in Lebanon call “sectarian”(pejorative) anyone who believes in such Swiss-style localism.   Permalink 4:21 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb For about two decades, journos, like vultures, have been showing up whenever someone (even when patently lunatic) claims finding a “flaw” in my work. Maybe I shd use a fake account and start posting these. #Antifragile   Permalink 4:03 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Rex Tillerson was not a neocon. @SecPompeo is a neocon. And a liar. Case closed on the president. He’s not teachable.   Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intuitive way to see the BS by @PTetlock who doesn’t get the notion of forecasting shd be in payoff space except in very narrow domains. Permalink 11:55 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@catoletters Meet the Crony Senators Who Took Saudi Money | The American Conservative   via @amconmag Permalink 10:22 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why Macron was doomed the minute he gave an inch to the yellow vests.   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The fancy 5 volume INCERTO set to come out in 2019.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:30 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@spyrosmakrid My talk at the M4 Forecasting Conference   elaborates on the two major challenges facing the field (see below), in addition to discussing “The findings of the M4 Competition and their implications and how the participating methods can be applied”. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Current bibles: The Bible, Wealth of Nations, Das Kapital, Works by Aquinas, Montaigne, etc. They fail editorial criteria. Editors don’t understand books, Academics don’t get scholarship. Why? @rorysutherland : employees’ objective is minimizing blame in case of failure. Permalink 3:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- How to make a survey work by via negativa. To assess if a book will survive, find an academic/someone who plays the system. If they say “well organized”, “well written”, or “original”, odds are the book flops. If they say “messy”, “whimsical”, the book will outlive him/her. Permalink 2:26 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Ignore surveys. Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line. Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait. Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 2:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war | Isaac Faber

Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war

I think, however, this is a great opportunity for a data science professional (or aspiring professional) to dig deeper into what is being said. There are implications on how we choose to model and present our work in a reliable and verifiable way. You must decide for yourself if Taleb has a point or is a just another crazy rich person with too much time on his hands.

Economists, Paris, Moscow, Deadlifting, Tetlock, Ghosn, Tesla, Dubai/UAE, Optionsellers, Regulators, Khashoggi | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “you should study risk taking, not risk management”

@naniiyer @nntaleb Research is catching up to what you have always said   Permalink 3:20 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Rory lexktchring. Employees try to minimize blame. #skininthegame Note the socks. Permalink 1:59 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can raise the lettrine but not done in ancient Mss. Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #TariffMan @POTUS @realDonaldTrump Permalink 11:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The point is that economists and psychologists, just like astrologers and fortune tellers shd NEVER be pit in the same category as real scientists and thinkers. Gabish?   Permalink 8:36 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Colors are Lindy. In the musée de Cluny. Permalink 8:30 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Sveriges riksbank officially denies appointing the “Nobel” in economics, deflecting the “IYI” accusation, shifting the blame to (the economists in) the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. But his magesty told me personally it was “not a Nobel, but a Swedish Riksbank prize” Permalink 7:47 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if the Lettrine format at the beginning of chapters works for the new book. Permalink 6:44 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lindy   Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@JulianKirby No #pseudos here..straight talking from @nntaleb to a packed house at #RiskMinds this morning..#skininthegame Permalink 12:27 AM – 5 Dec 2018

@ErikSchatzker Question for @black_swan_man: Is Tariff Man friend or foe? cc @nntaleb Permalink 11:24 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@JoshHochschild Example from Cajetan’s commentary on St. Thomas’s Summa Theologiae. Permalink 10:07 AM – 4 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I found the drift in meaning: “covetous” in Hebrew means “praiseworthy” in other Semitic languages. Permalink 10:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Philological Mystery du Jour: The root 7MD for לא תחמוד in the 10 Cmdmts doesn’t seem to match the meaning of the Arabic (حمد, with names like 7amid, M7mud, etc). And in Syriac texts the 10th C is ܠܐ ܬܪܓ Are they the same root? Thanks for the help. @Jonassibony @PhDniX Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The tradition of presenting a cental text surrounded by commentary is not limited to (post Rashi) Talmudic. Below + Erasmus, ~ 1515 (In Praise of Folly) + Talmud, 1482, Guadalajara, + Eramus, @BellesLettresEd, 2018 bilingual edition Figured out how to do it in LaTeX. #Lindy Permalink 8:56 AM – 3 Dec 2018


@nntaleb Paris is quiet this morning. The side effect of the riots: hotel employees are very, very humble. Permalink 1:42 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Permalink 1:32 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Moscow bookstore   Permalink 12:09 AM – 3 Dec 2018

@thomasjbevan1 ‘He is assessed by other professors, not readers. Zero skin in the game.’ I’m sure @nntaleb would agree. Academia seems to be largely a job scheme from what I can tell. Digging holes to fill them back up again   Permalink 7:12 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@GareBearTheFair I swear to God @nntaleb is a Bible translator for secularists, and nobody knows it Permalink 5:23 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb A Math problem with tricks. Permalink 3:07 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Members of Congress and other rent seekers should NOT have a taxpayer subsidized/sponsored/arranged health plan. They should get one on their own. #Skininthegame   Permalink 1:34 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@paulportesi @nntaleb. Taking Nassim’s idea of buildings are designed by architects to impress other architects. Calculus book writtern by math teachers are meant to impress committees or orther math teachers; not for students or practitioners.   Permalink 12:42 PM – 2 Dec 2018

@MKM_Abdul My takeaway from The Incerto by @nntaleb is that most biases are optical illusions that appear when human behavior is viewed from a risk perspective and completely disappear when viewed from a ruin perspective.   Permalink 2:46 AM – 2 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from cloudy #Beirut By @nadimbouhabib #WeAreLebanon Permalink 11:32 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Make sure you don’t compromise your ethics like @paul_salem for oil $$$, because some a***hole like me will never leave you alone for the rest of your life (again, Minority Rule).   Permalink 10:49 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@sangai_ To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things (say risk your life or career or reputation for a just cause,or live up to your word,etc) N N Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 9:29 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Something worth discussing: you can’t measure @salilstatistics the role of the x% by using standard estimators; rather from powerlaw tails.   Permalink 9:26 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Deadlifting is the best training for flipping cars. Just make sure you 1) prevent back injury w/the valsava maneuver, 2) use gloves to get a better grip of the side of the car,3) after deadlifting the car quicky change hand position for an explosive push,4) synchronize w/friends.   Permalink 2:02 PM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Just to make sure you know the @MiddleEastInst is a lobbying firm for the UAE with a mission of regime change/Salafi support/promote war in Yemen. But it is not classified as a lobby firm, but disguized as a “research” firm. Shd be classified as lobbyist   Permalink 10:21 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Social science means inventing a certain brand of human we can understand.” – @nntaleb Permalink 9:55 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb These are false claims. Chips were traditionally fried in beef tallow, duck fat, and/or olive oil. Not in SEED oil that we now know is inflammatory. Not Lindy. @Mangan150 has been producing ample evidence that seed oil marketed as “healthy” is not healthy. Permalink 9:52 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Better to own up to who you tend to envy. Umberto Eco, a man of yuuge erudition. His library, Milan. Permalink 9:32 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@History_Twerp I often wonder how Westerners and Levantines alike feel when it’s mentioned that Beirut was once a bastion of Greek learning and Roman law. I never get an answer. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Mulukhiyyé, kebbé, & french fries in olive oil with visiting ⁦@HsenAndil⁩ and ⁦@Decafquest⁩ in Northern Phoenicia. Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@nntaleb It is much harder to conceal one’s envy than to detect that of others. Permalink 2:46 AM – 1 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony What #IYI’s fail to understand is the more ya nerdify simple tings the more normal people tune ya out… Permalink 9:14 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #tesla #blackswanmobile Permalink 8:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Lecture on spurious correlation/hacking   Permalink 1:34 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Department of using Statistics to BS: or how @paulkrugman promotes Fooled by Randomness.   Permalink 1:23 AM – 30 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at M4 (thread) explains why such statements by @PTetlock (and his work) on forecasting are total BS and how they worsen with fat tailedness. Permalink 8:32 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Except for that hitch they were great forecasters   Permalink 8:30 PM – 29 Nov 2018

@brianalmon The classic intellectual-yet-idiot (as @nntaleb calls them). Physicists can tell you exactly where Mars will be on a particular day a hundred years from now, but “climate scientists” have been making inaccurate predictions for decades.   Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@beaves_dad Wait a minute! I thought the Left were the peacemakers and the Right were the warmongerers. This doesn’t make sense. Chuck Schumer should be protesting, not Rand Paul. Permalink 7:35 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@RandPaul ICYMI: Yesterday I joined @CNN to discuss Saudi Arabia and the war in Yemen. Yesterday was a big day. The Senate woke up. The Senate said we aren’t going to keep turning a blind eye to Saudi Arabia abuses or their war in Yemen. Permalink 6:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Was asked if the INCERTO was Lindy. Fooled by Randomness, oldest of the INCERTO, is ~19 y old, & steady. This is US weekly sales (excludes UK, foreign). Same pattern in UK, Italy, Russia, etc. Younger books show same pattern. Almost all bestsellers show exponential decline. Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that stupid people (the IYI, Intellectuals Yet Idiots) are much, much more dangerous to mankind than evil people. Thanks @enzolamberti for the beautiful pamphlet by Carlo Cipolla. Permalink 2:36 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb So, correction: original post shd be .01 of the people not .01% of the pple, as corrected in the 2nd tutorial. Permalink 2:20 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb What the data w @Drcirillo might be showing is vastly worse than expected: people may have a constant level of belligerence, but more and more destructive weapons. WW1 and WW2 are not outliers. (PS We got more analyses from recent data).   Permalink 2:03 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Cleaned up the Pareto Tutorial Permalink 12:53 AM – 29 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Next time you hear someone in the defense industry claiming to help “defend” you & yours against foreign threats, call their BS. Their business is to kill people for money. They have a vested interest in wars. And they own the Foreign Policy “establishment”.   Permalink 3:14 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Carlos Ghosn was ambushed like an amateur.   Permalink 2:37 PM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb My lecture at the conference Dec 10-11 in NY will be exactly why statements like this one by @PTetlock are total BS. Why forecasting without #SkinintheGame is nonsense, how to be rich you need to be a “bad” forecaster.   @spyrosmakrid   Permalink 9:50 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Tutorial: Many seem interested in the “Pareto” attributes. Here is a short tutorial. Permalink 8:01 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@nntaleb I block .01 % of people, which reduces BS, sophisty, & nitpicking by 99%. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2:21 AM – 28 Nov 2018

@AhsanDeliri When you confuse Newtonian mechanics and chaos theory. It’s easy to conflate problem sets.   Permalink 11:00 PM – 26 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what I am looking is for the JOINT distribution of Low heart rate AND high BP; that is, the RARE combination, not comments on either conditions considered separately. For the two conditions appear to be inversely correlated. Thanks.   Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@black_swan_man Patron Saint Daniel Bernoulli (1 of 2) #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ergodicity Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Medical Puzzle: Wonder about the clinical significance of: + Low resting heart beart rate <60 + High arterial blood pressure 140/85 Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb People have the illusion that Med = Sea. No, Med = Mountains. Gabish?   Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@spyrosmakrid Nassim Nicholas Taleb keynote at the M4 Forecasting Conference (New York City December 10/11) will be on “Forecasting and Uncertainty:The Challenge of Fat Tailedness” and after popular requests he will also talk about “Tail risks and why he thinks they are worse now than in 2007” Permalink 5:41 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 6- Centralized political systems cannot be truly “democratic”   Permalink 2:39 AM – 20 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Yoga schmoga. Try strolling. Or napping. #Lindy   Permalink 5:41 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Back to Riyadh, hoping the Saudi mob doesn’t get all excited again. Permalink 2:57 PM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 5) Hard to prevent idiots from polluting the discource: It is private enterprise that pulled hundreds of millions, if not a billion, out of poverty, not NGOs, not socialism, not redistributive expropriation, and not his beatitude the @Pontifex. Permalink 3:00 AM – 19 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 4) We are tired of people who want to “do good” the easy way: by destroying the world while collecting a salary.   Permalink 12:44 PM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 3) I am afraid that the only places that will be functional in ten years are small states that tasted socialism hence vaccinated (& are small enough for scaling), e.g. Georgia, Croatia, Hungary, Czech R, Slovenia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Baltic states, … Permalink 11:13 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb 2) Those who cause disasters judge themselves by the intentions not by the outcome. ( Socialists will blow us up.) + “First, do no harm” (primum non nocere): the most robust way for the world to get better. + No virtue without courage…   Permalink 10:48 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Alas people have done more harm while trying to “do good” and trying to “improve” the world than by trying to pursue their selfish aims while leaving others alone. Silver rule>> Messianism #vianegativa (Orthodox theology) #naiveinterventionism #virtuesignaling   Permalink 9:26 AM – 18 Nov 2018

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t realize he must dump the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria; this support will eventually be his Russian campaign. Permalink 1:45 PM – 17 Nov 2018

@nntaleb SHOCKING! These people   who blew up were citing me and The Black Swan to propose … selling TAIL options. Unbelievable. Exactly the opposite of what I write. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:41 PM – 17 Nov 2018