Tag Archives: Charlatans

Intelligence , Charlatans, IQ, Meditation, HYPERTENSION, Lindy, NYT, globalist/localist, Macron, Micron | Twitter

@nntaleb 19- A general problem w/social “scientists” & IQ idiots: they can intuit the very terms they are using. Verbalism; they have a skin-deep statistical education & can’t translate something as trivial as “correlation” or “explained variance” into meaning, esp. under nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com/4fUQuRvf1c Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@normonics It is clearly a point of identity for many. Exposing this and other fragilities as early and decisively as possible is the major project of those interested in an Antifragile world. https://twitter.com/ahsandeliri/status/1077483995057680384   Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@nntaleb John, refreshing to have a physicist. The rule of thumb: if a metric explains less than 1- x% of the variance, it is not a metric. In physics the x can be as low as 10^14. In engineering, often <10^5. In psychology often >75% of the variations come from variance. Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@AhsanDeliri It seems IQ is a special sacred cow. The minute @nntaleb decided to really investigate what it is, how it’s measured, what it implies, what it leaves out, how it’s implications are inflated, all the knives came out. Permalink 12:39 AM – 25 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #happyholidays #safetynet pic.twitter.com/AhrXI0MPZ7 Permalink 3:24 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Peterson I said psycho”metrics is about a nonlinear pseudometric that shows mostly how dumb someone is. Try another question & make it “intelligent”. Permalink 3:15 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@BDSixsmith According to Lebanese festive traditions, Nassim St Nicholas Taleb visits your house at midnight, eats the bowl of squid ink pasta that you left for him and leaves free weights and copies of Montaigne’s Essays for your children. pic.twitter.com/YAGRhg8r6e Permalink 1:58 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Utterly confused. The Peninsulars hate Turkey even more than they hate Infidels. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1077296606809079808   Permalink 12:27 PM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 18- (continuing graph). So far none of the IQ-psycholophasters seem to grasp that local correlation is never correlation is the commonly understood sense. So when they say “IQ works well between 70 and 130” it means: “IQ works well between 0 and ~85, maybe”. pic.twitter.com/IAkkDP9hBm Permalink 11:44 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “So it appears that the church founders really wanted Christ to have skin in the game; he did actually suffer on the cross, sacrifice himself, and experience death.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #MerryChristmas #books #quote #Christ pic.twitter.com/MGa2UrYIR5 Permalink 8:53 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Merry Christmas my friends! pic.twitter.com/xCCQxbGJuT Permalink 7:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 17- A graph that shows the synthesis of my opinion on IQ and the “reseasrch” results about it. pic.twitter.com/xZZFn4xNJB Permalink 6:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 16- So Far: “IQ” isn’t a measure of “intelligence” but “unintelligence”; it loses its precision as you move away from 70 (left tail). Where it’s most hyped (*some* jobs) it predicts ~15- 63% of the time, ~10% if you demassage data. It it were a physical test, wd be rejected. Permalink 4:56 AM – 24 Dec 2018

@TricksterDoesIt Taleb, I’m not sure I accept your stated correlation. Many of these studies have massaged the data. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4557354/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/v08eLsktTI”>  pic.twitter.com/v08eLsktTI Permalink 9:04 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (hint). pic.twitter.com/ml3X1xkKFf Permalink 8:48 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 15-” IQ” is most predictive of performance in military training, w/correlation~.5, (which is circular since hiring isn’t random). QUIZ: translate the correlation into percentage of the time IQ provides a correct answer there. Permalink 7:46 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 14- Any measure of “intelligence” w/o convexity is sterile. https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility   Permalink 1:59 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 13- For a measure to be a measure it needs to be: + UNIQUE + MONOTONIC or, at least + TRANSITIVE Hence IQ is not a measure, but something for psycholophasters to BS about. Permalink 12:02 PM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 12- If someone came up w/a NUMERICAL “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or oth physical qty, you ‘d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it & it will become an official measure. That’s what happened to “IQ”. Permalink 11:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 11- A robust use of “IQ” is for low scores for special needs pple. But then practically ANY measure would work to detect problem & improvement. Or no measure: just a conversation #Lindy. But then psycholophasters are using it like cholesterol, transferring from tails to body. Permalink 11:16 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 10- #SkininTheGame shows that the only robust measure of “rationality” & “intelligence” is survival, avoidance of ruin/left tail/absorbing barrier, (ergodicity). Nothing that does not account for ability to survive counts as a measure of “intelligence”– just philosophaster BS. Permalink 10:39 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@JSuchJ Interested in the ideas and books written by Nassim Taleb @nntaleb ? In this long podcast we discuss them (in Spanish) with @TorrasLuis (another RWRI alumni), @_PabloMB, @ValueInvestingS and @The_Godas https://www.academiadeinversion.com/nassim-taleb-luis-torras-juan-such-pablo-martinez-bernal-value-investing-fm/   Permalink 10:35 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 9- It is PRECISELY as a quant that I doubt “IQ”. I’ve spent 34 years working w/”High IQ” quants. I’ve rarely seen them survive, not blow up on tail events. Those high IQ who have survived like @financequant /Renaissance happen to be yuuugely street smart https://twitter.com/TellYourSonThis/status/1076866246270828544   Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 8- IQ is an academic-contrived notion. And the problem is that in academia there is no difference between academia and the real world; in the real world there is. Which explains why @primalpoly (while an honest resesrcher) can’t see where we are coming from. Permalink 8:38 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”. Remember the 1998 blowups. Permalink 8:19 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@DrBeauHightower Ever been to a Mensa meeting? Bunch of old dudes wearing sandals and socks that spend their time playing board games and chastising the world for chasing material goals. Nihilism plus backgammon. Permalink 8:17 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- If you take a Popperian-Hayekian view on intelligence, then you would realize that to measure it you would need to know the SKILLS needed in the ecology, which is again a fallacy of intellectual hubris. David Sloan Wilson joined the debate. https://twitter.com/David_S_Wilson/status/1076869012250918912   Permalink 8:05 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Seems like Taleb only cares about stuff that matters IN THE REAL WORLD Permalink 7:56 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- If you renamed IQ , from “Intelligent Quotient” to FQ “Functionary Quotient” or SQ “Salaryperson Quotient”, then some of the stuff will be true. It measures best the ability to be a good slave. IYIs want to build a top-down world where IYIs have the edge. Permalink 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb If many millionaires have IQs around100, & 58 y.o. back office clercs at Goldman Sachs or elsewhere an IQ of 155 (true example), clearly the measurement is less informative than claimed. https://twitter.com/gorucker/status/1076847699100606464   Permalink 6:48 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Look at the hordes with “high IQ” (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion. Yuuge survivorship bias. 37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998! Permalink 6:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation. Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones. pic.twitter.com/Cs8LlNPgEO Permalink 6:25 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs. 1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John) Permalink 6:22 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@librairiefrance RT @hugowiz: “Ce serait plus simple, d’un point de vue théologique, si Dieu était Dieu et Jésus un homme comme n’importe quel autre prophète, ansi que l’islam le voit, ou que le judaïsme voit Abraham.” Jouer sa peau @nntaleb @BellesLettresEd #JoyeuxNoel pic.twitter.com/UTg9ECZdqR Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Psychologists teaching you abt “intelligence” is like choirboys teaching you racketeering, turtles teaching you flying, or nuns teaching you how to rob a bank. Remember they live off charitable contributions or, worse, state support. #Skininthegame Permalink 12:33 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb OK, having played cop with @davidgraeber now I can safely support him in *some* of his missions. Permalink 12:13 PM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) Correspondence with Maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath : mathematics and humor. Maestro, Rest in Peace. https://twitter.com/search?q=%20%40cuttheknotmath%20%40nntaleb&src=typd   Permalink 10:55 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) The passing of @CutTheKnotMath: every Saturday morning I feel his absence, as my routine was to solve one of his puzzles. He was generous, patient, & committed to mathematics done right. We’ll finish his “Probability Riddles” book. @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink 10:41 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb @StuartJRitchie Permalink 9:14 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Lesson 1 : Never attack someone publicly unless you know what they know about your work. (Asymmetry) Lesson 2: Never mess with nonpsychologists/real people if you are just a psychologist. Fellow @stuartjrichie didn’t see that I am basing mistakes from HIS own book on IQ . https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1076473626189357058   Permalink 8:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@ShehabiFares The so called “Syrian revolution” in one picture..! pic.twitter.com/7z6JbpsBYL Permalink 7:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Takes correlation of existing pple in profession w/IQ (even assuming no bias & stats were replicable). Now take a cohort of “high IQ” pple and correlation with a category called “failure”. What does it show? pic.twitter.com/Xv6P1gcSDg Permalink 6:53 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The real non-datamined (i.e. w/potential cherrypicking) IQ study is the Terman study. Shows “geniuses” fare no better (or only slightly better, there was a debate) than socioeconomic peers. Epi-style studies in Medicine are now rejected (85% don’t replicate). Only cohort. Permalink 5:25 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@normonics There is a deep satisfaction in exposing shills — you are fighting for the common good. And it is effective. For instance, our bottom up exposure of @kevinfolta led to the point where even other shills have disassociated from him — no one is buying his toxic lies any longer https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1076288473051656192   Permalink 5:01 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@iwangulenko Did you know, a jump from 1 meter makes your legs stronger, a jump from 100 meters kills you. A nation of 8m is NO THE SAME as a nation of 300m. SCALE MATTERS. You can not scale communism (small scale, family), hard to copy Swissness AT SCALE/maybe impossible. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/dinapomeranz/status/1076059083856322560   Permalink 4:51 AM – 22 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams US Institute of “Peace” – pushes war, as it always has. We are forced to pay millions for a war-making “peace” institute. Orwell shits on us. https://twitter.com/USIP/status/1076315137185906688   Permalink 10:08 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Make sure you 1) spread the list or, better, 2) help expose shills For instance this effort helped us get @henryimiller who wrote fake scientific articles & smear scientists in Forbes & @ProSyn lose his job there & at the @HooverInst For the sake of trust in science! https://twitter.com/USRightToKnow/status/1076272623078854656   Permalink 5:29 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LINDY: we get the following: Survival rate improves past a stage: once you’ve survived long enough, time works for you even if not power law. This comes straight out of an absorbing barrier model. Note that absorbing barrier is necessary since death/survival are discrete events pic.twitter.com/1kRK6Btt3t Permalink 12:44 PM – 21 Dec 2018

@Aaragorn004 as @nntaleb said surgeons shouldn’t look like surgeons! https://twitter.com/mathematicsprof/status/1075776839530930181   Permalink 9:36 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1076131927919345665   Permalink 9:19 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb So the Persians celebrate #Yalda night while the Levant celebrate sol invictus the predecessor of Christmas at about the same time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sol_Invictus   یلدا مبارک https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1076140113007206401   Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Year in Review (cont) Monsanto is no longer. Bayer that bought Monsanto lost >$40 billion in cap. The idea that GMO = “science” & Glyphosate = “safe” is going bust as no longer propped up by the propaganda machine. With the death of Monsanto, victory for science. pic.twitter.com/HxqVFuKXCr Permalink 7:05 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6) An aspect of the @davidgraeber affair: is partaking of a lynch mob (in the form of approach in thread) morally acceptable, meaning it is only bad if one is the initiator? This is the classical problem of diffusion of responsibility: is is OK if OTHERS are doing it too? Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@EdmondShami Man, the way @nntaleb cracks down on academics is one of the most awesome things ever haha pic.twitter.com/9MLFhhLxul Permalink 4:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Most problems in the world are perpetuated by bureaucrats (ignorant of complex systems) with no #skininthegame “trying to help”. Put the State Department on sabbatical & see how peace will organically erupt. Also the past was more peaceful than claimed. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 4:07 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I can easily understand that someone can hate Donald Trump. But hating Trump more than loving peace is not a morally defensible position. Permalink 3:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018

@trishankkarthik “Abstinence much easier than moderation.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:25 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@phl43 I’d pay to see the faces of antiwar leftists in the 1970’s if they were told that 40 years later the Left, including many of their older selves, would be lamenting the resignation of a warmongering general. https://twitter.com/elianayjohnson/status/1075892750808158208   Permalink 3:45 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Trump ends illegal war in Syria. Trump may end 17 year losing battle in Afghanistan. Mattis: You’re not defending America. Well boo hoo hoo, Mattis. This is what America voted for. https://twitter.com/Elizabeth_McLau/status/1075881565216010246   Permalink 3:02 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@Ian56789 “Zuckerberg Must Resign”: Facebook Lets Corporations Read, Delete Your Messages https://theantimedia.com/facebook-let-corporations-read-delete-messages/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hq9iuKXGTS”>  pic.twitter.com/Hq9iuKXGTS Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review (cont) 4- Published 7 papers in journals mostly single author, main one is https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.05495.pdf   on speed of Law of Large Numbers 5- Figured out to avoid seed oil, called “healthy”. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6pwzeuQZBu”>  pic.twitter.com/6pwzeuQZBu Permalink 10:51 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@normonics These fucking people are sick Book a plane ticket and go fight ISIS yourself https://twitter.com/davidafrench/status/1075595073734230021   Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 7- My take on the Curse of Dimensionality. We’ve known about it for >30 years yet some idiotic geneticists keep doing multi-genes studies (especially the GMO types). People in computer science are vastly more aware. Also see “computational irreducibility” by Wolfram. pic.twitter.com/i6LDLri6Pb Permalink 8:11 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Here’s the guy who actually took a trip to Syria with McCain and Lindsey Graham and successfully pushed for the US to ARM TERRORISTS to overthrow the Syrian government. If I were Little Marco I would STHU about Syria because blood of thousands is on his hands. https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1075465661923631109   Permalink 8:03 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 6- Attempts by some to identify “intelligence genes” reveals statistical incompetence: for monogenic traits/mutations we can identify genes, for > there is a CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY meaning we need a yuuuuge sample of >10^30 people to have an idea about multivariate properties. Permalink 7:57 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5- The problem with “liberals” tagging to someone an identity/race/category to minoritify is that it makes race salient so you end up particularizing the general. Humans have zillions of dimensions & it gets absorbed into a category. Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4- Aside from LLN, idiots make claims abt the distribution of maxima from individuals. As I wrote in TBS, if all terrorists were Sunni Salafis, only ~ 0.0001 of Sunni Salafis are terrorists meaning you are wasting statistical time discriminating ag single individuals. Permalink 6:53 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My forth book in March (Vol 1, Techn Incerto) shows how little mechanistic statisticians undertand the law of large numbers (LLN). Some claims can only be made for large aggregates. The LLN requires muuuuuuuch more than they think. https://twitter.com/pirpirikos/status/1075762047269273600   Permalink 6:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075762184892887041   Permalink 6:38 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@BrankoMilan For a change Trump does something reasonable: reduce killings by withdrawing US forces (at least he says so) from Syria and “internationalist rule-based liberals” attack him because they want….a war. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nitingoyal An amazing thread on stats and how statistical ignorance leads to over medication. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1074283575288033280   Permalink 6:29 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- What people don’t get about “race” ≠ or “heritability” of traits: even it these were true & not fabrications, they wd be dominated by IDIOSYNCRATIC differences. If pple from Mars had an “IQ” lower than earth by 5%, w/variance you wouldn’t see it in ANY 2-paired individuals. Permalink 6:22 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 5) @davidgraeber might not have been at the initiation of the lynch mob, just an active promoter of it (which, ethically, makes no difference). Permalink 5:47 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@unherd @nntaleb’s 2013 demolition of false certainties is the perfect book to re-read in an era of noise and confusion, writes @peterfranklin_ https://unherd.com/2018/12/why-antifragile-is-the-perfect-read-for-todays-turmoil/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) and there is a meta-vagueness; @davidgraeber then accuses those who debunk him like @QuilletteM as belonging to “alt-right” Permalink 5:25 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The approach for rounding up an academic lynch mob used by @davidgraeber 1) vageness of accusation 2) the accusation, while vague, has an association with a precise sinister past (appeal to emotion) 3) wording leaves no possibility for scientific/critical scrutiny Permalink 5:13 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MonaresTI I also had the privilege of being a student at the #RWRI. I learned a lot about statistics in real life. A doctor must ensure the safety of the least ill patient and never take away an opportunity to the one that is most in danger. SKIN IN THE GAME Permalink 4:37 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Important to remember: 1) guidelines for bloodpressure change frequently. More than 83 million adults would be recommended for high blood pressuretreatment under the new (2018) system compared to 72 million under the prior recommendations. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1074283575288033280   Permalink 2:50 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@golchhaJ Came across the French word ‘glander’ / ‘glandouiller’ through @nntaleb : “It means “to idle”, though not “to be in a state of idleness” (it is an active verb). Gandouiller denotes enjoyment. [It] is what children without soccer moms do when they are out of school.” Permalink 1:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IlitbtgNWz Permalink 5:27 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- There is a category of bubblegumheads (say @jaketapper ) who not only overgeneralize but misgeneralize on top: say turning the pullout in Eastern Syria as a US vs Putin. Quite insulting for the citizens there with #skininthegame Permalink 2:04 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/l0nu2kQcIG Permalink 1:37 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There has been an epidemic of generalizing every tiny individual & particular conflict in life into something large & systemic, tied to “exploitation”, “race”, “gender”, “colonialism”, & ancestral “privilege”. Same pple view the world top-down & see benefits in centralization. Permalink 1:35 PM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:30 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Germany’s most important journal Der Spiegel says top journalist faked stories for years. @nntaleb https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/top-der-spiegel-journalist-resigns-over-fake-interviews?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Year in Review 2018 vs plan 1- Was more intransigeant 2- Went to Malta after yeaaaaars of trying 3- pic.twitter.com/2HGVscWm0S Permalink 7:22 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@Marcellenassif Sample of a Lebanese Christmas Eve ;) Featuring the FAMILY pic.twitter.com/k3sglqsfUL Permalink 6:17 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When two “experts” diagree, consider the possibility at least one of them is not an expert. https://twitter.com/tarik_a/status/1075387357224992768   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My definition: 1- Something is locally Antifragile with respect to a variable x (that is in a range, for x ∊ [L, H]) if and only if it has a locally convex response to such variable (i.e. f(x+∆x)+f(x-∆x)> 2 f(x) for all x ∊ [L, H]). [GAMMA APPROACH] 2- [VEGA APPROACH] Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, thank you Twitter @jack for protecting us from “state actors” from Saudi Arabia trying to dig information about us. In my case Saudi Arabia can easily get information about me, they don’t need hackers. This was sent yesterday to pple targeted by the “state actors”. pic.twitter.com/08v2Xr3MmG Permalink 2:58 AM – 19 Dec 2018

@nntaleb “Saudi Arabia Is Going Bankrupt” Taleb Exclaims After Seeing Kingdom’s Latest Budget | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-18/saudi-arabia-going-bankrupt-taleb-exclaims-after-seeing-kingdoms-latest-budget   Permalink 5:21 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@Barnes_Law In depth technical analysis explains how Silver’s forecasts “feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis” applying double standards to measuring his on modeling. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 4:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Arabia is going to go bankrupt. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1075065883792470017   Permalink 2:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018

@ole_b_peters Let’s never think of utility as a currency. Currency conversion is linear, whereas the whole point of utility is its non-linearity. If we think utility is a currency, i.e. linear, we’ll miss its reference-point dependence and start believing in prospect theory. Permalink 7:41 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@Lipsie What FRACTAL LOCALISM looks like in the realm of vegetables. Tweet sponsored by @nntaleb & @VeggiesAreNoIdiots pic.twitter.com/nycm7s6Sae Permalink 6:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM & SCALABILITY Compare: Greek Cyprus to Greece (in spite of the former’s yuuuge problems since 1974) Singapore to China (and or Malaysia) Dubai to what is called “Saudi” Arabia Switzerland to Germany Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “Gli amministratori sono una maledizione da sempre – in ogni angolo del pianeta, in qualsiasi business o attività e in tutte le epoche storiche.” Rischiare grosso @nntaleb @ilSaggiatoreEd #libro #citazione #business pic.twitter.com/dyg2e2wIL6 Permalink 4:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My side of the story clearly presented. As the saying goes, an ounce of algebra clears a ton of BS, even when the BS comes from someone with >3 million twitter followers. https://twitter.com/isaacfab00/status/1074721180660056064   Permalink 7:13 PM – 17 Dec 2018

@isaacfab00 My attempt to demystify the @nntaleb vs @NateSilver538 twitter war. https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc   Permalink 9:41 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The Nation-State is an agricultural concept made by a ruler to control & better own his peasants. It is highly inimical to the Mediterranean mind. The Polis is a more adapted unit. Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony “It takes 1,000 IQ points to out wit an aggressive tinkerer” -@nntaleb Rule of thumb (#Heurstic) never trust someone who has a weird obsession with “IQ”. They’re a sucker, someone who tinks (slowly) they understand the world but dont… https://twitter.com/StefanMolyneux/status/1074219829798699008   Permalink 5:44 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb III- The US was created to be bottom up, with the Federal Gov taking a residue of spending. But when pple spend (abstract) money that is not theirs, a disproportionate amount of fat grows, & we now have yuuuge money spent on nonsense. Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb II- From the idea that communism works only on a small scale (if it ever works)=> Taxation, as in Switzerland should be bottom up. You pay in proportion to where you can SEE the money spent. 1st to the commune; Commune pays the leftover to the county, county to … to federation Permalink 3:51 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Great thread illuminating the FRACTAL LOCALISM project. 1) Communism works on a very small scale. 2) But the flip is that it has only worked with a community that is highly homogeneous (originating from Eastern Europe) and monstrously sub-ethnocentric. https://twitter.com/KaiGehring1/status/1074586553215840256   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@Extrachelle Retweeting this again bcz it’s my favourite 2018 tweet so far. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1073197627745992704   Permalink 1:59 AM – 17 Dec 2018

@hugowiz “… il promotore più attendibile di un prodotto è il cliente.” Rischiare grosso di @nntaleb ed. @ilSaggiatoreEd Come puoi vedere, ho acquistato il libro ;-) (11 ottobre 2018) pic.twitter.com/IOWVOzWC21 Permalink 11:57 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/n4qXhvj3gi Permalink 7:01 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I view both globalists and nationalists as the same crap: a reduction in dimensionality, a destruction of the variegated intermediate fractal layers between individual and humanity. Both aim at monoculture. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1042047309478014976   Permalink 3:32 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb As you lower \mu you can see the Lindy zone and the nonlindy area. Collapse is crossing the orange line. X axis is years. pic.twitter.com/NuoM61GvMe Permalink 3:07 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Localism is NOT nationalism. https://twitter.com/laurentozon/status/1074254016488574977   Permalink 1:37 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Lindy https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1074386673696456704   Permalink 1:31 PM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Harry is a doctor and a RWRI alumni. https://twitter.com/HarryhongHong/status/1074321136761036800   Permalink 7:19 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon Live Love #Jounieh! Joy to the world By @joe.sokhn #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/oKEVwo2kUz Permalink 7:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@kimberlitepipe1 “English ‘manners’ were imposed on the middle class as a way of domesticating them, along with instilling in them the fear of breaking rules and violating social norms.” @nntaleb It took me 30+ yrs to realize this and make a change. Still difficult at times, woof woof woof. Permalink 6:51 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Ancestral architecture: no Euclidian geometry, high dimensionality. Even pyramids when close show rich micro-patters (Met in NYC). Today’s architecture is “smooth”, Eucledian, & of low dimensionality. I am most comfortable in a forest, a cave, or a Gaudi bldg. pic.twitter.com/fCTy4H8I7N Permalink 5:49 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Doctors are statistically naive & their statisticians are imbeciles; they have a hard time understanding non-linear dose-response so they binarize. And pharma takes them for a ride by bucketting numbers (mildly ill + very ill produces an illusion of risk for mildly ill). pic.twitter.com/1ZRZnUCJNx Permalink 5:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@nntaleb HYPERTENSION In #Antifragile: Pharma needs to medicate the mildly “sick” (hypertensive) as 1) these live long 2) >100 more midly “sick” ppl than very sick, so more profitable to “cure” the healthy Pharma reclassifies the “sick” to get clients. But relation HBP-risk is nonlinear! pic.twitter.com/1x0X9oIzxu Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@ektrit As Taleb @nntaleb says, Modern Architects design to impress other Modern Architects. https://twitter.com/archpng/status/1074254067860471808   Permalink 4:21 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@laurentozon L’arnaque c’est de confondre localisme et protectionnisme national. Lorsque vous êtes à Nice vous êtes plus proche de Gêne que de Brest, Saint-Jean-de-Luz ou Lille. MLP est centralisatrice et sa gestion du RN le démontre depuis des années. https://twitter.com/mlp_officiel/status/1066981705129623552   Permalink 2:44 AM – 16 Dec 2018

@WeAreLebanon That’s how the sun rises in #Beirut! Good morning everyone! Have a nice Sunday By @mahdifad #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/Z5Z1ICPiZC Permalink 11:25 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Being dumb and #Antifragile has worked out pretty well for me… https://twitter.com/bintsouria/status/1073984901114937346   Permalink 2:53 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- Lindy is not a powerlaw but surely has local such behavior for first say 2000-10000 years. Good enough for me. A yuuge result. pic.twitter.com/2dLkdwW2Cl Permalink 1:30 PM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is not ART you can optionally observe in a gallery, but places and neighborhoods WE live in. We have skin in the game and the architect doesn’t. Permalink 5:29 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb There is an additional problem with architects and modernity: reduction in the fractal dimensions of our world. https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 4:37 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The problem is architects building structures to impress other architects –but plumbers don’t act on impressing other plumbers. Any activity where agents impress peers (architects, academia) rather than satisfying the needs constituents ends up rotting. #SkininTheGame https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1073918095645908992   Permalink 4:32 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb New mathematics for the Lindy Effect, expressed as absorbing barrier (extinction barrier). This is the INTUITION of the method. Yuuuge results once we use Girsanov to include drift, or switch to geometric Brownian motion. #Lindy @financequant pic.twitter.com/OXMrClJMS5 Permalink 4:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Classical mistake by historians and philologists treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. (Lond discussion in #TheBlackSwan) https://twitter.com/Jorrit_Kelder/status/1073548679859048448   Permalink 3:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb M4 is a SYSTEMATIC test of machine learning techniques, not some cherry picked concoction in an “evidence based” “data science” paper. There is NO other systematic test of predictability than @spyrosmakrid’s “M” competitions. On to M5. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1073897208834113537   Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@nntaleb (Journalistic) noise is to signal what a cancer cell is to a healthy one. Permalink 3:08 AM – 15 Dec 2018

@NECSI It is the degree of opacity and uncertainty in a system, as well as asymmetry in effect, rather than specific model predictions, that should drive the precautionary measures. Push a complex system too far and it will not come back. pic.twitter.com/KTPDM6uaBR Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Dec 2018

@john_f_hamer “It takes a lot of skills to be virtuous without being boring.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 6:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am plagiarizing @HarryDCrane for my own course next spring, particularly the last sections on Antifragile. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1073079657212321792   Permalink 5:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The main point from the M4 competition is not that traditional stats > machine learning, but that BOTH have a horrible record; we cannot use forecasting for any RISKY exposure. Hence a protocol for precaution in specific domains. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1072502840407527425   Permalink 5:17 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I wrote 4 Op- Eds in the NYT so this is not a matter of access. I just despise them. Permalink 5:00 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb What we calls different conservatism is militarism. Kristop has the intellectual rigor and clarity of thought of a poorly boiled cauliflower. https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1073538845671604225   Permalink 4:53 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Remember that the NYT, while promoting platitudinous & vague notions such as “integrity”, “truth”, etc. was behind the Iraq war, regime change, and other monstrosities. The NYT is a cover for warmongers & managed to convert the pseudo-left to militarism. Permalink 3:55 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/TalebQuotes/status/1073485426105577472   Permalink 3:47 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb When someone announces, self-referentially, “I have integrity and virtue”, look for the fraud. If NYT wanted to show *virtue* they shd say: “We take RISK for the Truth, even if uncomfortable to us & causes us to be ostracized by the MONOCULTURE/Weapon makers” No virtue w/o Risk pic.twitter.com/TWXqk68NJl Permalink 3:38 AM – 14 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Science is about observables; decisions, risk, life, profits and wisdom are about unobservables. Permalink 3:32 PM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Correction: Feb 11-15 Permalink 9:10 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@DrMichaelBonner Ousia, hypostasis, prosopon, etc. are often used interchangeably, and cannot be translated sensibly into other languages. Permalink 8:46 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb My piece on the Lebanese language. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 7:21 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Cancelled my subscription to @LOrientLeJour, not bec they refused to publish my skeptical article on language, but for the INCOHERENCE of their management who claimed to be “balanced” by only publishing Arabists. MTV has no trouble w/the argument. https://www.facebook.com/adamadamo.fun/videos/vb.1532186683714370/742671102768879/?type=2&theater   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/x2kqK7VXy0″>  pic.twitter.com/x2kqK7VXy0 Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 4) For a nationalist others are like “nonelephant animals”. For a localist others are cousins; some are brothers. Permalink 4:56 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3) Both nationalism & abstract universalism cause blowups. Kantian Universalism is flawed: It you treat all children equally for Christmas, you will neglect your own. Just as you are obligated to give preference to your children, others are obligated to do so with their own… Permalink 4:54 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2) The danger of Nationalism is an absorption of values: lives of others don’t count: Both H & W Bush counted only U.S. soldiers. For Salafis, lives of infidels don’t count. For a localist everyone counts, but your obligation to family members is greater. Permalink 4:51 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb NATIONALISM: there is an individual, then nation, little above. Causes Wars: outside lives don’t exist. FRACTAL LOCALISM: individual ⊂ various tribes (family, friends…) ⊂ tribes ⊂ … Humanity. NEVER exclusive: One (me) can ⊂ Greek & Lebanese tribes+US +Mediterraneism. Permalink 4:47 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@Apocalypticaly @nntaleb might find this to be funny. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1073182406390079488   Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Dec 2018

@nntaleb We are opening scholarships for RWRI (Real World Risk Institute) Feb 10-14 2019 in NYC http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 12:45 PM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The saying that it takes much more energy to displace than install falsehood is itself a falsehood 1) Sticky “falsehoods” are beneficial or useful for survival (placebo, superstition) 2) Falsehood can only persist if #Lindy 3) Nonhelpful falsehoods tend to collapse very quicky Permalink 11:45 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture pic.twitter.com/prTzKd2MwM Permalink 9:07 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@moshejoshua For anyone who has read @nntaleb already knows, this statement to be the harbinger and start of the end. pic.twitter.com/GqrXYZWTX0 Permalink 4:39 AM – 12 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Let me be clear about intolerance against intolerance. The rule is that People (say Salafis) whose platform is EXPLICITLY denying democracy (or free speech) should not use democracy (or free speech) to reach political power. Permalink 1:46 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Nightmare! Someone citing me in EXACTLY opposite of the meaning: Being “intolerant against intolerance” does NOT mean tagging people as fascist or somethinist SO you can muzzle them. @davidgraeber’s tactic is tagging people w/o due process, witches to be hunted. https://twitter.com/kellydanc/status/1072576042030764034   Permalink 1:39 PM – 11 Dec 2018

@Stefano_Peron And conclusion: when u have heavy tails and low signal noise ratio, convexity and layering exposition is better then forecast!@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1072547892576116737   Permalink 10:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb With ⁦Isabella and @Stefano_Peron⁩, RWRI alumni who came from Italy (Treviso) to attend the ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ M4 Conference. pic.twitter.com/VhR103kc8w Permalink 9:45 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The NKS by @stephen_wolfram is #Lindy Thoughts by “scientists” like Dyson who dismissed it (without reading it) aren’t Lindy. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1072521638745391107   Permalink 8:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Econometrics has been a total disaster. pic.twitter.com/Bf8AAPksRb Permalink 6:53 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Spyros ⁦@spyrosmakrid⁩ : the most accurate machine learning method is worse than the worst standard “statistical” one. pic.twitter.com/oo3stEBoTy Permalink 6:46 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Where @davidgraeber is slowly learning that if you use a lynch mob against someone (under argument using freedom of expression), someone may turn a lynch mob against you (under same freedom of expression). #symmetry https://twitter.com/davidgraeber/status/1072210837283225600   Permalink 3:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb You can’t predict business success, but you can predict business failure: someone who writes lengthy and frequent emails. Permalink 3:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I confirm. Harry’s undergrad class >>> so-called social scientists. https://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/1072266082210201604   Permalink 3:53 PM – 10 Dec 2018

@polemitis “I have been wrong about most things most of my life…tell me something I don’t know… the key is to have a convex distribution to returns when I am right vs I am wrong” – @nntaleb #m4conference @Uni_of_Nicosia @nyutandon Permalink 7:25 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Scott Armstrong is 81. I will remember to scrutinize what he eats at lunch/dinner. pic.twitter.com/nuEvfbwW1j Permalink 6:35 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntaleb I am supposed to be an unpleasant. https://twitter.com/batteryhorse/status/1072134680563122176   Permalink 6:32 AM – 10 Dec 2018

@nntalebbot “If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@LBMaronites R.I.P to the great Lebanese poet Maurice Awad. He devoted his life to modernizing poetry in the Lebanese language & even translated the Bible to the Lebanese language. He was nominated to a Nobel Prize in 2015. A true treasure from our country! pic.twitter.com/QeGaJMmMYt Permalink 1:36 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@tonyblaitz And why did France spearhead the war against Ghaddafi in Libya? Why is France solidly behind Paul Biya and Cameroon in their quest to exterminate the people of the English-Speaking Southern Cameroon? Permalink 12:05 PM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb President Micron, You don’t want other countries to interfere in the affairs of France And/or sypport the #YellowVestProtests rebels. Why did France support the jihadi headcutters in Syria? Please explain, President Micron. Permalink 6:14 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Not good https://twitter.com/karenattiah/status/1071474783978700800   Permalink 5:53 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Latest by @PZalloua of the Lebanon-East Med Population Genetics Project. Ancient DNA of Phoenician remains indicates discontinuity in the settlement history of Ibiza http://disq.us/t/397a0bd   Permalink 2:35 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NonMeek Here’s a tailored comic strip for your upcoming M4 -lecture in NY. This ought to capture the gist of it [intensity > frequency]. #fattails pic.twitter.com/HeKUQzoBxG Permalink 1:49 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@NicolasTabardel You seem to still be using the left/right paradigm, when the debate has shifted to another dimension (globalist/localist). Permalink 12:21 AM – 9 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Χρόνια Πολλά ! https://twitter.com/byzantinepower/status/1071358737607200768   Permalink 4:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Yellow vests. Some surprisingly excellent demands: – Banning Lobbies (8) – Smaller Banks (5) – Banning MONOCULTURE, GMOs, Glyphosate (20) – Anti Foreign Interventionism (22) – Pol. Diversity of Media (15) – Frexit (9) Some questionable ones (3, 2) . #GiletsJaunes #YellowVests pic.twitter.com/Jjwy16xpWK Permalink 3:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Fractal Localism https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1070994836705239041   @digvijoy_c Permalink 5:43 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@FattestFatTony Ending the poll earlier because more answers can come in, but only suckers wait for answers. Future Taleb had the most votes but Big Ron is the winner. pic.twitter.com/ERFL0S8Nrs Permalink 5:19 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Political Clarity under Complexity, & fractal localism. pic.twitter.com/5VPUTVrqaS Permalink 4:39 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb This is a CENTRAL result: you don’t get peace forcing pple to hold hands & sing Kumbaya by the campfire. You get peace via fractal LOCALISM. The usual idiotic AUB-style pseudoleft in Lebanon call “sectarian”(pejorative) anyone who believes in such Swiss-style localism. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/890007166991482881   Permalink 4:21 AM – 8 Dec 2018

@nntaleb For about two decades, journos, like vultures, have been showing up whenever someone (even when patently lunatic) claims finding a “flaw” in my work. Maybe I shd use a fake account and start posting these. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/brianga11agher/status/1063542512114171904   Permalink 4:03 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Rex Tillerson was not a neocon. @SecPompeo is a neocon. And a liar. Case closed on the president. He’s not teachable. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1071132880368132096   Permalink 12:26 PM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb An intuitive way to see the BS by @PTetlock who doesn’t get the notion of forecasting shd be in payoff space except in very narrow domains. pic.twitter.com/kPeCKYjK3n Permalink 11:55 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@catoletters Meet the Crony Senators Who Took Saudi Money | The American Conservative https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/meet-the-senators-who-took-saudi-money/   via @amconmag Permalink 10:22 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb Why Macron was doomed the minute he gave an inch to the yellow vests. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/947496509926453251   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb The fancy 5 volume INCERTO set to come out in 2019. https://www.amazon.com/Incerto-Deluxe-Randomness-Procrustes-Antifragile/dp/198481981X/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1544196473&sr=8-2&keywords=incerto   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xWtMBGC8gZ”>  pic.twitter.com/xWtMBGC8gZ Permalink 7:30 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@spyrosmakrid My talk at the M4 Forecasting Conference http://www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy   elaborates on the two major challenges facing the field (see below), in addition to discussing “The findings of the M4 Competition and their implications and how the participating methods can be applied”. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/64UODewnPa”>  pic.twitter.com/64UODewnPa Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 3- Current bibles: The Bible, Wealth of Nations, Das Kapital, Works by Aquinas, Montaigne, etc. They fail editorial criteria. Editors don’t understand books, Academics don’t get scholarship. Why? @rorysutherland : employees’ objective is minimizing blame in case of failure. Permalink 3:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 2- How to make a survey work by via negativa. To assess if a book will survive, find an academic/someone who plays the system. If they say “well organized”, “well written”, or “original”, odds are the book flops. If they say “messy”, “whimsical”, the book will outlive him/her. Permalink 2:26 AM – 7 Dec 2018

@nntaleb 1- Ignore surveys. Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line. Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait. Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 2:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018

Charlatans, Imbeciles, Bankers, Economists, Propagandists, Forum Astana | Twitter

@nntaleb Centrally, justice is about starting with the crime, then finding culprits, rather than starting with the person then finding the crime.https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/879394382285332480   Permalink 10:56 AM – 26 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Mathematical scratchnotes for Skin in the Game. pic.twitter.com/Qi8PiJMLMo Permalink 9:17 AM – 26 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Economists… talking abt charlatans who “sell a service that they do not deliver on”.https://twitter.com/NessimAitKacimi/status/879348478157230081   Permalink 7:57 AM – 26 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The plot thickens: the Northern Levant spoke … sanscrit! @PZallouahttps://twitter.com/ShoaibDaniyal/status/879239364567474176   Permalink 6:53 AM – 26 Jun 2017

@mikeandallie A terrific example to show calculus students from @CutTheKnotMath and @nntaleb : https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/06/25/a-terrific-example-for-calculus-students-from-nassim-taleb-and-alexander-bogomolny/   #math #mathchat Permalink 5:03 AM – 25 Jun 2017

@vinayak Excellent word choice! “Only The Rich Are Poisoned: The Preference of Others” — @nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68#—260-557   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/b8T48djA9Y”>  pic.twitter.com/b8T48djA9Y Permalink 1:40 AM – 25 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The only compliments I really take seriously as those by such erudites as @ArmandDAngour . Or Fat Tony. Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The only answer I have to your comment is that you an imbecile. Permalink 6:33 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Being tolerant with the intolerant is an act of intolerance.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 6:27 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The enemy of market system isn’t some pot-smoking hirsute communistic hippie, but a suit wearing banker or Federal Reserve employee. Permalink 3:50 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The only argument to not jail bankers is that they would manage to scam other inmates.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/23/jailing-barclays-bankers-financial-crash?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 2:52 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Nice to see one’s sentences “rediscovered” episodically.https://twitter.com/EddyElfenbein/status/878518675187302400   Permalink 1:02 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Islamized Armenians, Greeks & Syrians have been stuck with a “Turkish” or “Arab” identity. http://www.repairfuture.net/index.php/en/identity-standpoint-of-turkey/the-turkish-identity-imposed-by-the-nation-state-is-being-questioned   via @Repairfuture Permalink 12:59 AM – 24 Jun 2017

@nntaleb No praise is valid unless its author is as prone to praising as to laying blame. Permalink 2:13 PM – 23 Jun 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Find a limit of sequence http://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/RootedLimit.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus #limit ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3vjVR07hrQ”>  pic.twitter.com/3vjVR07hrQ Permalink 2:58 PM – 22 Jun 2017

@skorusARK . @nntaleb makes a solid case for general purpose technology platforms #blockchain #autonomouscars #EnergyStorage all have lots of use cases pic.twitter.com/63huPkxts2 Permalink 7:34 AM – 22 Jun 2017

@GuruAnaerobic From ‘ANAEROBICS’ – 2018 Calories, Chronicity and sub-lethal starvation – a rationale. Independent of “current research”. (h/t @nntaleb) pic.twitter.com/Nw3MU6nYuc Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Snapshots of recent work on how to asses SP500 tail probabilities. pic.twitter.com/jooVBA7LLt Permalink 3:03 AM – 22 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The mathematics of why absence of correlation != 0 correlationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o   Permalink 11:40 PM – 21 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The opposite of reading is not not reading, but reading something like the @NewYorker. Permalink 5:35 AM – 21 Jun 2017

@CutTheKnotMath What is the probability that a random nxn matrix from Z(2) is degenerate? (Moscow State U. math olympiad, 1976) Permalink 10:05 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb “Merime”, impure, comes from “muharram” (<-haram), which makes their hidden religion even more confusing to track. Permalink 3:29 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Is it me or something is wrong with this painting by Yevgraf Sorokin, 1853, of Spanish gitanos. Romas are supposed to avoid dogs (impure). pic.twitter.com/ZPrVFT8brg Permalink 3:26 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb J. Ceasar’s thinking: Accumulate details, plan silently, then move fast ag. your enemy Chronic engagement is just training him #Antifragile Permalink 2:55 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb If you are famous, rich, or prominent, avoid people whose friends are all famous, rich, or prominent. Permalink 2:09 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Yet almost all of what’s in theses mounds of “nonfiction” books is BS. However, much of what’s in fiction is pure truth.https://twitter.com/historylvrsclub/status/877257258098360321   Permalink 1:19 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb This is the pin story & coordination in Algazel. The reason I refrnced Graeber is that he mentions it as well. https://www.facebook.com/13012333374/posts/10150327251133375   Permalink 12:27 PM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In general, if an “Arab” discovery was made by a Persian (or a Babylonian), one should try to look further East. Permalink 12:45 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb As an example of spontaneous coordination without a central planner. Permalink 12:32 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Example of the pin made by various of pple unaware of one another, used by A.Smith, originally in Algazel Could have originated further East Permalink 12:28 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Where is @davidgraeber when you need him? Permalink 12:21 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb When ignorant pple dabble in history… Idea of division of labor/invisible hand (A.Smith’s pin) was by a Persian, Algazel,~300 y before IK.https://twitter.com/davidjshipley/status/876890647982166022   Permalink 12:19 AM – 20 Jun 2017

@nntaleb And Templeton’s Money will be used, not to research, but to finance Henry I. Miller & others smearing @garyruskin & scientists like Seralinihttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/876937088771530755   Permalink 11:56 PM – 19 Jun 2017

@nntaleb You die, leave money for charity, as John Templeton did.Later, an IYI schmuck who runs the foundation gives YOUR money to GMO propagandistshttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/876935203805057024   Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Jun 2017

@nntaleb From memory 1st who introduces the technology isn’t safe; often goes bust. Remember Visicalc or Lotus123?, Osborne portable PC? AltaVista?https://twitter.com/tim/status/876566999530315776   Permalink 3:12 PM – 19 Jun 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A write-up for the last week’s probability problem http://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Probability/ARMLC_2016_7.shtml   with thanks to @barryvanhoff @gcfr20 @nntaleb @mikeandallie ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Tel0ykarZ9″>  pic.twitter.com/Tel0ykarZ9 Permalink 5:09 AM – 19 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Kazakhstan is a country of DOERS; very refreshing to see. Astana has in no time mushroomed out of the Eurasian steppe. Runs like Singapore! Permalink 4:30 PM – 17 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Probability du Jour. Maestro @CutTheKnotMath proposed a great probability problem (conventional convolutions fail because of dependence) pic.twitter.com/Y0A7QNN2fj Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Interesting the same people who report (& get) this don’t get that genetic modification jump complexity classes.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/06/its-like-all-connected-man/530532/?utm_source=twb   Permalink 12:50 AM – 17 Jun 2017

@Ishtiaque_IH Nicholas Taleb @Forum_Astana: Trial and error is better than knowledge because it helps us adapt more effectively in an uncertain world. pic.twitter.com/PxGsuXlACw Permalink 10:24 PM – 16 Jun 2017

@garyruskin Did #Monsanto ghostwrite articles for @henryimiller in defense of #glyphosate? http://bit.ly/2nOacg3   http://bit.ly/2d5KErI   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rWdJUeuvo2″>  pic.twitter.com/rWdJUeuvo2 Permalink 1:47 PM – 16 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Dinner: Carpaccio of horse meat, & horse fat. The Steppe fighters kept a ketogenic diet which allowed them to fast for days w/o fatigue. Permalink 4:53 PM – 14 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Fermented mare milk, Genghis Khan’s champagne! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumis   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ru3x2208ZI”>  pic.twitter.com/ru3x2208ZI Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jun 2017

@non_observable “Virtue is what you do when nobody is looking. The rest is marketing.” -@nntaleb #WednesdayWisdom Permalink 2:52 AM – 14 Jun 2017

@LorenzoWVilla When a distribution realizes that @nntaleb is looking at her, she immediately becomes a power law.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/874784165266284545   Permalink 5:55 PM – 13 Jun 2017

Pinker, Stewart Brand, Charlatans, Syria, Godel-Popper, Erdogan, Mathematica, Elections | Twitter

@nntaleb Pinker like charlatans talks to the press but no technical work.@sapinker is a BS artist. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say  pic.twitter.com/50YrAt70kR Permalink 12:56 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pinker has about every attribute of the charlatan. Nothing short of a charlatan. https://www.academia.edu/26772813/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say  https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/765546814384799744   Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Steady “Arabization” of Syria, away from its rich Syro-Greco-Aramaic heritage via schooling; shd reverse after Saudi bankruptcy. Permalink 12:46 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1)The tension in Syria has antecedent:1000 y tension SyroPhoenician Graeco-Roman v/s desert Arabs; cities vs desert.pic.twitter.com/jMvid2I2a3 Permalink 12:33 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Have I ever been subtle with my opinions? @JRLV_Inc Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The elephant may misbehave on the occasion (particularly during hormonal episodes) but he is not a predator. Permalink 10:16 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Stewart Brand, you are not a scientist, you are a shrill and a charlatan. @stewartbrand @dawallach @berggruenInst http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 10:05 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Refine your mind, avoiding BS, journos,& statistical noise to the point that a logical flaw/nonsense sound like a jarring note in a concert. Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is NOT Pascal’s wager! @carlosortegap http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 9:01 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rule: No brain surgery for aheadache if painkiller (or a night’s sleep) can do. #GMOs: a risky unscientific scam.https://twitter.com/michaelpollan/status/765248478851239936   Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A paper to present to @DrCirillo at his conference in Leiden. With mistakes.pic.twitter.com/O3aA8AvR02 Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (intellectuals yet idiots) in UK condem screening of Salafis but ignore bullying/murder of apostates/hate speechhttps://twitter.com/Iram_Ramzan/status/765261728204587008   Permalink 12:51 PM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Plautus: “Eru’meus elephanti corio circumtentust” My master has the *skin of an elephant* @bradd_libby Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Elephant. My favorite animal: takes no crap, gives no crap, harms no-one but when one tries to harm it, never forgets. Permalink 11:18 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Guess (an animal)https://twitter.com/oinkbaamoo/status/765245086619828224   Permalink 11:03 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb All books have animals now in UK @JamesNamorpic.twitter.com/j6LMapwKyN Permalink 10:31 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thing for squid Ink went too far. Publisher asked “what animal on the cover of Antifragile?” I said “squid!”. Close.pic.twitter.com/bOYrhrwO2X Permalink 10:06 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Tolerance (intellectual): Pagan Gr-Roman>Christian(Orth)~Muslim (Shiite)~Secular> Protestant>Christian (Cath)>Atheist>Muslim (Salafi). True? Permalink 9:56 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Looks like my obsession with squid ink is backfiring, trivializing the philter via mainstream commercialization.https://twitter.com/o_liveco/status/765216026820837380   Permalink 9:11 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual yet idiot) @billkristol w/peers blew up Iraq & Lybia. No apologies, no learning, no #Skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/765154912548294656   Permalink 8:51 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@GhassanDahhan A message from an Algerian woman who was put on a Salafi death-list: No tolerance for the intolerants! (@nntaleb)pic.twitter.com/Zqq2sYZ23l Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016”https://medium.com/@nntaled/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.bfhrwes8k   Permalink 6:07 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Friends, does anyone know this book? “On Monotheistic Violence”.pic.twitter.com/qjxNZTQtoA Permalink 4:48 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Much of what we hear on Syria is propaganda by PR firms/Arab journos. For our paper saw War accounts oft unreliable.https://storify.com/MoonofA/how-the-aleppo-hospitals   Permalink 11:59 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Student days.pic.twitter.com/9c4qbugqlJ Permalink 5:30 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority”https://medium.com/@nntaled/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.cq32okfgf   Permalink 5:29 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Godel-Popper rule: No freedom to the enemies of freedom No rights to the enemies of rights No democracy to the enemies of democracy Kapish? Permalink 4:01 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Car ahead of me with SQUIDINK license plate. Trying to make contact, get recipes, restaurant names …pic.twitter.com/40UHd6ypEj Permalink 3:41 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@alancliddell @nntaleb Calvin and Muad’Dib:pic.twitter.com/QeutuwekaR Permalink 3:15 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Salafis in France have the nerve to use French freedom of dress to block antiburkini laws.http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2016/08/13/le-tribunal-administratif-valide-l-arrete-municipal-bannissant-le-burkini-a-cannes_4982397_3224.html   Permalink 3:14 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ In 1818, the Ottomans beheaded Wahabi boss Ibn Saud, forcing him to listen to music (banned by Wahabis). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_bin_Saud   Permalink 2:21 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154053650028375   Permalink 11:12 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I am allergic to the term”contrarian”. Assumes a contrary opinion on everything, the opposite of critical thinking. Kapish? @AlanInterface Permalink 10:06 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pre-1918, 2 centers of Islam: Istanbul v/s Wahabis. West (UK) supported Wahabi revolt. If Erdogan brings back Istanbul, much, much better! Permalink 7:29 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thou Shalt Not use Publick Service to Collect Speaking Fees. (Skin in the Game)pic.twitter.com/X35gMq2dc0 Permalink 7:05 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Small differences in sigma/errors blow up a 6-sigma by a huge “yuge” amount @D0YouEvenSplash @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/nPeL4uNMwN Permalink 6:32 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Here shows comparisons of convavity between n-iterated logthms and power functions @5upercrabpic.twitter.com/KBPdshFodr Permalink 5:20 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Even if IQ is measurable, tail IQ would not be beyond the category “very high”. (Variance in extremes, Vega/delta)https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/760688453218660352   Permalink 3:24 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jeff Holman, the incompetent risk manager who went after Antifragile is now w/ @SentientDAI in “intelligent”systems https://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.2524.pdf   Permalink 5:33 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@MarkVirag Wow this is good http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-global-elites-forsake-their-countrymen-1470959258   what @nntaleb would call “no skin in the game”pic.twitter.com/Rrg2kOfLdx Permalink 2:53 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Sunk cost fallacy is only fallacy for specific series of independent bets. @rorysutherland @alexvgeorgiev @TriversRobert @jasonacollins Permalink 5:18 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Boris IV, let’s end the cold war and focus on the Wahabi cancer.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/764070804296314880   Permalink 5:16 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb These pple, like 538, are not getting that a poll is an *estimator*, hence tracking error pulls it towards 50%. @tomgg @zhaep @neilchriss Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Math du jour: nesting functions for iterated logarithms, the perfect concave but unbounded function.pic.twitter.com/ohPgT4Zuzs Permalink 4:56 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Olympics: Greek ideal of ἀρετή, at human scale. Circus: exploitation of deformities, unscaled Current Olympics: exploitation of deformities! Permalink 3:23 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pierre de Jean Olivi, 13th Century.https://twitter.com/RichardMoorhead/status/764000633431076865   Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Block someone logically defective w/low-self esteem & you have an overactive hater for life: cheapest possible advertising money can buy. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I wish someone could spot an error in the paper. Getting worried as presenting it in 3 weeks!https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/763790101310738432   Permalink 3:30 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@Trader_Moe Taleb has shown it takes only a tiny intransigent minority to rule larger culture: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf  https://twitter.com/WatchSharia/status/763648926889177088   Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb OK, now <3%. [correcting # of Protestants in France rose in past 2 decades] Permalink 6:25 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs, vol 2. @Roman_Latkovic Permalink 6:20 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Never imagined that, in 2016, people selfdefined on the “left” would be in favor of repression, cronyism, lobbies, elitism, &… Salafism ! Permalink 4:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Overconfidence:”I lost money because of my excessive confidence”,Erasmus citing Theognis, Epicharmus @rorysutherlandpic.twitter.com/c5vjFqVrRH Permalink 3:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ most erudite men of all time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Justus_Scaliger   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Casaubon   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Bayle   4th is Cath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Daniel_Huet   Permalink 2:30 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb FactTduJour: 3 out of the 4 most erudite Frenchmen in history: Casaubon, Scaliger, & Bayle were Protestant. Protestants today<1% of France. Permalink 2:17 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Weightlifting is not for thin people. Overoptimized for weight, hence fragile! @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 2:13 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Psychological findings that are nonBS have to be #LindyEffect compatible http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @rorysutherlandpic.twitter.com/tXNAqF4Tpe Permalink 1:58 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Saudi approach: hire a PR firm to “improve their image” rather than just evolve Like Monsanto Anyone interested in perception will go bust Permalink 3:59 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I would stop actually later, at the French Moralists (La Rochefoucault…). See Elster for catalogue. @rorysutherland Permalink 3:47 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The bet: if psychological finding is NOT in the classics <Montaigne, it is not real. Cog disson was in Aesop. #LindyEffect @rorysutherland Permalink 3:43 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Notes on one of Elster’s books. He is the MAIN social science thinker; gets Lindy Effect @avermeule @biillybpic.twitter.com/KMYP3kNCz8 Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Yemen, unlike Saudi Barbaria & Syrian “rebels”, does not have a PR firm in DC. Journos are told what is important.https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/763484556167118848   Permalink 2:56 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indeed, Eastern Aramaic used as “husband.” <= fertility! @alexshd @funtime_bobby @holland_tompic.twitter.com/oPqOa1NYlb Permalink 2:46 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Baal like Adon (=>Adonis) interpreted as “Lord” in Canaanite. Baal Mammon, Baalat Gebala… “Baal shem tov” = Lord w/ gd name @holland_tom Permalink 2:35 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@CCavafy When they saw Patroklos dead —so brave and strong, so young— the horses of Achilles began to weep. Permalink 6:20 AM – 12 Dec 2014

@CCavafy Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey. Without her you would not have set out. She has nothing left to give you now. Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Dec 2015

@nntaleb The New Fourth Estate is Wikileaks. You don’t mess with the New Fourth Estate. The Old Fourth Estate, no problem.https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/763380671796678656   Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The sicarii were into political assassination, not harming children. @iMetaldog @ayhanusa Permalink 7:17 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The ones on Paganism-to-Christianity I REread is Robert Lane Fox https://www.amazon.com/PAGANS-CHRISTIANS-Robin-Lane-Fox/dp/0394554957/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470834898&sr=1-3&keywords=robin+lane+fox   and Peter Brown’s https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393958035/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1   @tcoe13 Permalink 6:18 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Another account of early paganism-Christianity: https://www.amazon.com/Conflict-Religions-Early-Roman-Empire-ebook/dp/B007K0QKWK/ref=la_B001K8IPNU_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470828969&sr=1-2#nav-subnav   @tcoe13 Permalink 4:38 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Derivations of how to make and update election forecasts without BS. Trying @WolframResearch new release Mathematicapic.twitter.com/VSLtigZqz3 Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I always block people for Sophistry. Simple allergy. Let me know when a devout Orthodox blows up a bus full of infidel children. @ayhanusa Permalink 3:02 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Salafis preach in schools (incl. in Europe) that Shiites, atheists, pagans, classicists, (often) Christians/Jews are infidel deviants. Permalink 2:37 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb It is NOT racism to discriminate against people dressed according to a sect that discriminates against “infidels”, that is, you. Permalink 2:29 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@lhfang Mike Morrell, CIA director who endorsed Hillary, is literally paid by a Hillary consulting firm for weapons makershttp://interc.pt/1mrWtdg   Permalink 6:50 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The “no arbitrage” equality forces the error on binary to ->0 which matchers Brier in discrete 1shots @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlock Permalink 1:26 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This is the rigorous proof on way to make time estimates @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/rC3MgfGXDO Permalink 1:23 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Literalism: Few pagans believed in the myths. R L Fox see also Veyne (Skin in the game)pic.twitter.com/HHnJcSkUH4 Permalink 5:15 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@DrCirillo Experts (?) who rely on PIT estimates to forecast things they do not understand, and @nntaleb debunking them. Priceless and funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has nothing to do with race but dressing like members of a violently intolerant subsect: Salafism @artaphernes Permalink 3:18 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb There is a .00001 correlation between what I said and this headline. Headline editors …https://twitter.com/yahoofinance/status/762641774707937280   Permalink 2:59 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If you lower false positives, you cause more risks (false negative). Sorry, pol correct pple, but risk is risk.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/762925184688988160   Permalink 1:42 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris is an energy neutral city.pic.twitter.com/7Vnmnv6xR2 Permalink 1:30 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Levantine: ana/inté/inté/hu/hi/nihna/into(n)/into(n)/hinné/hinné. Note é @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:51 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The basics: nun used in NW Semitic as in Levantine. @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlestickspic.twitter.com/5of2FME8SO Permalink 12:45 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Levantine has the same verb forms as Aramaic http://arshama.classics.ox.ac.uk/downloads/Aramaic%20Skeleton%20Grammar%2004%20(Strong%20Verb).pdf   @candela3paz @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb No, Levantine is from older source than Arabic http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm   @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:05 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Great news: Arabic writing is starting to vanish from Christian areas in Lebanon. A cop had “POLICE” on his shirt.pic.twitter.com/mrYa5w0t3d Permalink 10:37 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb You are NOT getting that your Brier is a Norm L2 distance minimizer. Stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. @PTetlock Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Completely wrrrong. The norm L-2 distance is MINIMIZED by lowering estimator variance, Hence my method @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/8kKzVn8pCX Permalink 7:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless!pic.twitter.com/zUfnNTnji6 Permalink 7:24 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris: a school named after a high school dropout; rebellious poem on the wall. Did they notice the contradiction?pic.twitter.com/dD2sRoHWLR Permalink 3:16 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jet Lag: Proved that mean rises for ALL power laws when alpha stochastic, discussion w @financequant, @DrCirillopic.twitter.com/M8dGwDmWLh Permalink 1:10 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) More expamplespic.twitter.com/LtUKpQrJ3V Permalink 12:34 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to elections.pic.twitter.com/gbq1pqtkEJ Permalink 12:26 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea @PTetlockpic.twitter.com/0mXzIuw17l Permalink 12:23 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A volatile spot makes the binary⇩↑ .50 (4m expiration) to ↓vol of binary (metaprobability) @Chris_arnade. Kapish?https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/762376801209425920   Permalink 2:06 PM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The child of jet lag: how uncertainty makes violence worse, supplement to paper w @DrCirillo (with errors…)pic.twitter.com/aPvl6Dvxcp Permalink 12:24 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes)pic.twitter.com/LghTxDRN3b Permalink 3:12 PM – 6 Aug 2016

Folta, GMOs, Friedman, Charlatans | Twitter







Shameful. Let us clean up science. This is not about smalltimer Folta but about corporate control of science. https://t.co/dhhF4jhjXU

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 5, 2015

FAA should manage GMOs https://t.co/pZDZI175T8

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 4, 2015

GMOs Facts and Fiction: a cheat sheet (Revised). (Added the “consensus” needed for plane safety.) pic.twitter.com/09SmfaK3ck

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 5, 2015

OK, OK, after 10 years, I take Tom Friedman out of the dog house. https://t.co/Vu3QJvtQND

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 4, 2015

No, I don’t *talk* about refugees. Why? Because I am housing 6 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. #Skininthegame.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 3, 2015

A Wonderfully Simple Heuristic to Recognize Charlatans | Farnam Street https://t.co/c3cKhrqQsv via @farnamstreet

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) September 3, 2015