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Pinker, Stewart Brand, Charlatans, Syria, Godel-Popper, Erdogan, Mathematica, Elections | Twitter

@nntaleb Pinker like charlatans talks to the press but no technical work.@sapinker is a BS artist. Permalink 12:56 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pinker has about every attribute of the charlatan. Nothing short of a charlatan.   Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Steady “Arabization” of Syria, away from its rich Syro-Greco-Aramaic heritage via schooling; shd reverse after Saudi bankruptcy. Permalink 12:46 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 1)The tension in Syria has antecedent:1000 y tension SyroPhoenician Graeco-Roman v/s desert Arabs; cities vs Permalink 12:33 PM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Have I ever been subtle with my opinions? @JRLV_Inc Permalink 11:27 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The elephant may misbehave on the occasion (particularly during hormonal episodes) but he is not a predator. Permalink 10:16 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Stewart Brand, you are not a scientist, you are a shrill and a charlatan. @stewartbrand @dawallach @berggruenInst   Permalink 10:05 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Refine your mind, avoiding BS, journos,& statistical noise to the point that a logical flaw/nonsense sound like a jarring note in a concert. Permalink 10:02 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is NOT Pascal’s wager! @carlosortegap   Permalink 9:01 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Rule: No brain surgery for aheadache if painkiller (or a night’s sleep) can do. #GMOs: a risky unscientific scam.   Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A paper to present to @DrCirillo at his conference in Leiden. With Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (intellectuals yet idiots) in UK condem screening of Salafis but ignore bullying/murder of apostates/hate speech   Permalink 12:51 PM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Plautus: “Eru’meus elephanti corio circumtentust” My master has the *skin of an elephant* @bradd_libby Permalink 11:27 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Elephant. My favorite animal: takes no crap, gives no crap, harms no-one but when one tries to harm it, never forgets. Permalink 11:18 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Guess (an animal)   Permalink 11:03 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb All books have animals now in UK Permalink 10:31 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thing for squid Ink went too far. Publisher asked “what animal on the cover of Antifragile?” I said “squid!”. Permalink 10:06 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Tolerance (intellectual): Pagan Gr-Roman>Christian(Orth)~Muslim (Shiite)~Secular> Protestant>Christian (Cath)>Atheist>Muslim (Salafi). True? Permalink 9:56 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Looks like my obsession with squid ink is backfiring, trivializing the philter via mainstream commercialization.   Permalink 9:11 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual yet idiot) @billkristol w/peers blew up Iraq & Lybia. No apologies, no learning, no #Skininthegame   Permalink 8:51 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@GhassanDahhan A message from an Algerian woman who was put on a Salafi death-list: No tolerance for the intolerants! (@nntaleb) Permalink 2:43 AM – 15 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I just published “Commencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016”   Permalink 6:07 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Friends, does anyone know this book? “On Monotheistic Violence” Permalink 4:48 PM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Much of what we hear on Syria is propaganda by PR firms/Arab journos. For our paper saw War accounts oft unreliable.   Permalink 11:59 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Student Permalink 5:30 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Just published “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority”   Permalink 5:29 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Godel-Popper rule: No freedom to the enemies of freedom No rights to the enemies of rights No democracy to the enemies of democracy Kapish? Permalink 4:01 AM – 14 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Car ahead of me with SQUIDINK license plate. Trying to make contact, get recipes, restaurant names … Permalink 3:41 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@alancliddell @nntaleb Calvin and Muad’ Permalink 3:15 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Salafis in France have the nerve to use French freedom of dress to block antiburkini laws.   Permalink 3:14 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ In 1818, the Ottomans beheaded Wahabi boss Ibn Saud, forcing him to listen to music (banned by Wahabis).   Permalink 2:21 PM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters.   Permalink 11:12 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I am allergic to the term”contrarian”. Assumes a contrary opinion on everything, the opposite of critical thinking. Kapish? @AlanInterface Permalink 10:06 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pre-1918, 2 centers of Islam: Istanbul v/s Wahabis. West (UK) supported Wahabi revolt. If Erdogan brings back Istanbul, much, much better! Permalink 7:29 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Thou Shalt Not use Publick Service to Collect Speaking Fees. (Skin in the Game) Permalink 7:05 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Small differences in sigma/errors blow up a 6-sigma by a huge “yuge” amount @D0YouEvenSplash Permalink 6:32 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Here shows comparisons of convavity between n-iterated logthms and power functions Permalink 5:20 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Even if IQ is measurable, tail IQ would not be beyond the category “very high”. (Variance in extremes, Vega/delta)   Permalink 3:24 AM – 13 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jeff Holman, the incompetent risk manager who went after Antifragile is now w/ @SentientDAI in “intelligent”systems   Permalink 5:33 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@MarkVirag Wow this is good   what @nntaleb would call “no skin in the game” Permalink 2:53 PM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Sunk cost fallacy is only fallacy for specific series of independent bets. @rorysutherland @alexvgeorgiev @TriversRobert @jasonacollins Permalink 5:18 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Boris IV, let’s end the cold war and focus on the Wahabi cancer.   Permalink 5:16 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb These pple, like 538, are not getting that a poll is an *estimator*, hence tracking error pulls it towards 50%. @tomgg @zhaep @neilchriss Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Math du jour: nesting functions for iterated logarithms, the perfect concave but unbounded Permalink 4:56 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Olympics: Greek ideal of ἀρετή, at human scale. Circus: exploitation of deformities, unscaled Current Olympics: exploitation of deformities! Permalink 3:23 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Pierre de Jean Olivi, 13th Century.   Permalink 2:13 AM – 12 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Block someone logically defective w/low-self esteem & you have an overactive hater for life: cheapest possible advertising money can buy. Permalink 3:46 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I wish someone could spot an error in the paper. Getting worried as presenting it in 3 weeks!   Permalink 3:30 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@Trader_Moe Taleb has shown it takes only a tiny intransigent minority to rule larger culture:   Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb OK, now <3%. [correcting # of Protestants in France rose in past 2 decades] Permalink 6:25 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs, vol 2. @Roman_Latkovic Permalink 6:20 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Never imagined that, in 2016, people selfdefined on the “left” would be in favor of repression, cronyism, lobbies, elitism, &… Salafism ! Permalink 4:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Overconfidence:”I lost money because of my excessive confidence”,Erasmus citing Theognis, Epicharmus Permalink 3:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ most erudite men of all time   4th is Cath   Permalink 2:30 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb FactTduJour: 3 out of the 4 most erudite Frenchmen in history: Casaubon, Scaliger, & Bayle were Protestant. Protestants today<1% of France. Permalink 2:17 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Weightlifting is not for thin people. Overoptimized for weight, hence fragile! @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink 2:13 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Psychological findings that are nonBS have to be #LindyEffect compatible Permalink 1:58 AM – 11 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Saudi approach: hire a PR firm to “improve their image” rather than just evolve Like Monsanto Anyone interested in perception will go bust Permalink 3:59 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I would stop actually later, at the French Moralists (La Rochefoucault…). See Elster for catalogue. @rorysutherland Permalink 3:47 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The bet: if psychological finding is NOT in the classics <Montaigne, it is not real. Cog disson was in Aesop. #LindyEffect @rorysutherland Permalink 3:43 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Notes on one of Elster’s books. He is the MAIN social science thinker; gets Lindy Effect @avermeule Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Yemen, unlike Saudi Barbaria & Syrian “rebels”, does not have a PR firm in DC. Journos are told what is important.   Permalink 2:56 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Indeed, Eastern Aramaic used as “husband.” <= fertility! @alexshd @funtime_bobby Permalink 2:46 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Baal like Adon (=>Adonis) interpreted as “Lord” in Canaanite. Baal Mammon, Baalat Gebala… “Baal shem tov” = Lord w/ gd name @holland_tom Permalink 2:35 PM – 10 Aug 2016

@CCavafy When they saw Patroklos dead —so brave and strong, so young— the horses of Achilles began to weep. Permalink 6:20 AM – 12 Dec 2014

@CCavafy Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey. Without her you would not have set out. She has nothing left to give you now. Permalink 5:30 AM – 6 Dec 2015

@nntaleb The New Fourth Estate is Wikileaks. You don’t mess with the New Fourth Estate. The Old Fourth Estate, no problem.   Permalink 7:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The sicarii were into political assassination, not harming children. @iMetaldog @ayhanusa Permalink 7:17 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The ones on Paganism-to-Christianity I REread is Robert Lane Fox   and Peter Brown’s   @tcoe13 Permalink 6:18 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Another account of early paganism-Christianity:   @tcoe13 Permalink 4:38 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Derivations of how to make and update election forecasts without BS. Trying @WolframResearch new release Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb I always block people for Sophistry. Simple allergy. Let me know when a devout Orthodox blows up a bus full of infidel children. @ayhanusa Permalink 3:02 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Salafis preach in schools (incl. in Europe) that Shiites, atheists, pagans, classicists, (often) Christians/Jews are infidel deviants. Permalink 2:37 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@nntaleb It is NOT racism to discriminate against people dressed according to a sect that discriminates against “infidels”, that is, you. Permalink 2:29 AM – 10 Aug 2016

@lhfang Mike Morrell, CIA director who endorsed Hillary, is literally paid by a Hillary consulting firm for weapons makers   Permalink 6:50 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The “no arbitrage” equality forces the error on binary to ->0 which matchers Brier in discrete 1shots @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlock Permalink 1:26 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb This is the rigorous proof on way to make time estimates @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster Permalink 1:23 PM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Literalism: Few pagans believed in the myths. R L Fox see also Veyne (Skin in the game) Permalink 5:15 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@DrCirillo Experts (?) who rely on PIT estimates to forecast things they do not understand, and @nntaleb debunking them. Priceless and funny. Permalink 9:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has nothing to do with race but dressing like members of a violently intolerant subsect: Salafism @artaphernes Permalink 3:18 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb There is a .00001 correlation between what I said and this headline. Headline editors …   Permalink 2:59 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb If you lower false positives, you cause more risks (false negative). Sorry, pol correct pple, but risk is risk.   Permalink 1:42 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris is an energy neutral Permalink 1:30 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) Levantine: ana/inté/inté/hu/hi/nihna/into(n)/into(n)/hinné/hinné. Note é @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:51 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The basics: nun used in NW Semitic as in Levantine. @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby Permalink 12:45 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Levantine has the same verb forms as Aramaic   @candela3paz @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:26 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb No, Levantine is from older source than Arabic   @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink 12:05 AM – 9 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Great news: Arabic writing is starting to vanish from Christian areas in Lebanon. A cop had “POLICE” on his Permalink 10:37 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb You are NOT getting that your Brier is a Norm L2 distance minimizer. Stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. @PTetlock Permalink 8:46 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Completely wrrrong. The norm L-2 distance is MINIMIZED by lowering estimator variance, Hence my method Permalink 7:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless! Permalink 7:24 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Paris: a school named after a high school dropout; rebellious poem on the wall. Did they notice the contradiction? Permalink 3:16 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb Jet Lag: Proved that mean rises for ALL power laws when alpha stochastic, discussion w @financequant, Permalink 1:10 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) More Permalink 12:34 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb (cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to Permalink 12:26 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea Permalink 12:23 AM – 8 Aug 2016

@nntaleb A volatile spot makes the binary⇩↑ .50 (4m expiration) to ↓vol of binary (metaprobability) @Chris_arnade. Kapish?   Permalink 2:06 PM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb The child of jet lag: how uncertainty makes violence worse, supplement to paper w @DrCirillo (with errors…) Permalink 12:24 AM – 7 Aug 2016

@nntaleb 4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes) Permalink 3:12 PM – 6 Aug 2016

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