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Taleb Says World Is More Fragile Today Than in 2007 | Bloomberg

Published on Oct 31, 2018
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, scientific advisor at Universa Investments, discusses the factors causing global fragility, hidden liabilities in global markets, and what he sees as safe trades in the current market. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Markets.”

Everyone Worries Too Much About ‘Black Swans’

Relax. They really are pretty rare.

In other words, Taleb might be wrong — people might be overestimating, rather than underestimating, the risk of market crashes.

Some recent survey evidence indicates that this might be true. William Goetzmann, Dasol Kim and the Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller looked at 26 years of survey data, and found that people consistently say they expect things like stock-market crashes and earthquakes to happen more frequently than they really do. This is exactly the opposite of what Taleb might predict.

Source: Everyone Worries Too Much About ‘Black Swans’

Taleb is not taking this sitting down! (Says your faithful archivist tongue in cheek.)
From Facebook 4/15/16

Friends, this is what I wrote in The Black Swan about rare events: they are very difficult to assess probabilistically. Not underpriced: hard to price, hence one should avoid being fragile to them.

Accordingly I have asked for a formal retraction of an article by Noah Smith (someone who has been spreading nonsense for years) and who apparently has not read the book.


Another flaw which most certainly explains Noah Smith’s failing his academic career. He takes a book published in 2007 discussing events until 2006, then says “Taleb is wrong” about market estimation of probability between 2007-2016. Perhaps the participants adjusted to events of 2007, the book, or something else. The claim by Noah Smith is about market value of risk, not the structure of risk, which is something subsequent to the book. That his editor missed it is also strange.

Nasim Taleb on Syria, Market Regulation, Nasdaq | Bloomberg

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a New York University professor and author of “The Black Swan” and “Antifragile,” talks about the need for executives to be accountable and pay the price for poor decisions. Taleb, speaking with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Alix Steel on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance,” also discusses the conflict in Syria and the role of technology at exchanges. (Source: Bloomberg)