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Category Archives: Twitter

LOCALISM, “libertarians”, ADAPTATION, Justin Amash, @Reason, Marshmallowbrained Psychopaths, Ioannidis

Never use single point estimates for pandemics 5/13/20 @Monsantobuster Prof Taleb @PTetlock does not know what a probability distribution means. Permalink 8:10 AM – 14 May 2020 @bohemianGunjan “Panic is good only if you panic early, and as a trader the first thing you learn is to panic early”. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb. @nntaleb […]

Ioannidis, Tetlock, Summers, Masks, Oil, Russian Roulette, Astrology

From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben | Youtube Published on Apr 24, 2020 + Why the crisiss was not a Black Swan. + Masks compound (even if primitive) + Convexity Ben misleads with his “hedges” Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (pdf 4/18/2020) (Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine (pdf 7/31/2018) The Pandemic Isn’t […]

Sue, @WHO, NYT, LOCALISM, Chloroquine, Asymmetry, Masks, Branson, @CassSunstein, Superforecasters, De Blasio

The Corona Crisis is Not a Black Swan: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Universa Inv. & NYU Tandon) Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You (With Mark Spitznagel) Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their […]

#RWRI13, Connectivity,, Contact Between People, virucide, Quillettists, #RiadPonzi, John Gray, Conferences, Sunstein, Superspreader, TRUE JUSTICE, Harari, Dawkins, Hanson, Thaler, George Steiner, Bureaucracy, Localism

@Pascallisch Same is true for animals/evolved cognitive systems. Most false positives for predator detection in foliage are without consequence. A single false negative can be fatal. Raw accuracy is not the point. Permalink 9:11 AM – 7 Mar 2020 @nntaleb If the word “panic” means “exaggerated” reaction, could be so at the individual level but […]

Fat Tony, NJ, Pandemics, Harari , coronavirus, panic early, Tesla, AUSTRALIA, IQ, Coach Rippetoe, Iran, Soleimani, Ghosn, HIGHLIGHTS OF 2019, Negronis,

Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications   @nntaleb Fat Tony lives in NJ; but he self defines as “from Brooklyn”. “It’s that bridge, you know”. Permalink 10:14 AM – 7 Feb 2020 @nntaleb Comments on New Jersey in The Incerto… one of many Permalink 9:18 AM – 7 Feb […]