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#RWRI, Michael Levitt, Pinker, Kucharski, JACOBINISM, Diab | Twitter

COVID-19 brought socialism to America – Nassim Taleb | SophieCo. Visionaries
The COVID-19 pandemic came as an external shock, almost unprecedented. How can we navigate the uncertainty of the post-pandemic future? We talked to the author of bestselling books ‘The Black Swan’, ‘Antifragile’, and ‘Skin in the Game’, risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

@nntaleb 4/ PS- The argument that someone has a Nobel (particularly in an unrelated field) is EXACTLY the bad side of ad hominem. Permalink 2020-08-19 15:40:35

@nntaleb 3/ True humility (“humbleness”), Mr Levitt, @MLevitt_NP2013, is not in bowing to the “Nobel privilege”; it lies in understanding that we live in a world lacking certainties & acting accordingly, not risking lives via charlatanic claims. Permalink 2020-08-19 11:06:21

@nntaleb 2/ @MLevitt_NP2013 is offended that thanks to his Nobel privilege in… chemistry we shd bow to him for his ignorance in Extreme Value Th & probabilistic risk analysis. This is what we called the #CarpenterFallacy PS: Levitt forecast Israel <=10 deaths Permalink 2020-08-19 10:01:59

@nntaleb It is in there. The Koura is the southernmost part. Permalink 2020-08-19 09:46:14

@nntaleb Explains the culture of the Koura valley south of Antioch. Permalink 2020-08-19 02:50:39

@nntaleb Your seats reserved for the next RWRI. Permalink 2020-08-19 01:05:01

@nntaleb Back in stock. And link for the free PDF. If you want to save money, feel free to download & print. Permalink 2020-08-19 01:03:41

@nntaleb Blood pressure also rises Permalink 2020-08-18 21:56:44

@nntaleb We used to have physical fights before Zoom Permalink 2020-08-18 21:11:44

@nntaleb No, one needs to let others speak. Permalink 2020-08-18 17:31:20

@nntaleb Unreadable… Permalink 2020-08-18 16:49:35

@nntaleb Steve Wolfram. Permalink 2020-08-18 11:47:53

@nntaleb Bad quality! @zachobront Permalink 2020-08-18 11:10:49

@nntaleb End of book Permalink 2020-08-17 14:46:18

@nntaleb Jaffer is Palestinian. If he openly says that he will vote for Trump, you can expect many people classified on the left to do so, but covertly. Pardoning Snowden will draw many voters wary of the “deep state”. Permalink 2020-08-17 02:08:56

@nntaleb 2/ Can someone give an intuitive proof of the law of iterated expectations? Words only, no math. Permalink 2020-08-17 01:17:15

@nntaleb This reminds me of the statement “the probability is now 100%. But it could change.” Permalink 2020-08-16 23:19:06

@nntaleb How can you get in? US citizens are banned. Permalink 2020-08-16 23:17:48

@nntaleb Wrong heuristic/definition of wrgodicity Permalink 2020-08-16 20:37:08

@nntaleb Actually a lot of farmers from Asia Minor. Google it. Permalink 2020-08-16 20:18:32

@nntaleb If this works, outperforms any quarantine! More so if false negatives correlate to contagiousness. Permalink 2020-08-16 19:55:55

@nntaleb No… Permalink 2020-08-16 18:12:02

@nntaleb Scribes in Egypt Permalink 2020-08-16 14:12:03

@nntaleb To understand scaling in politics/economics/culture: Mediterraneans (olive oil pple) have traditionally done best in groups & organizations of size n. Creating large orgs/states= Procrustean bed. Discuss. Permalink 2020-08-16 13:39:56

@nntaleb Explain why it is the same word in Greek. Explain why it is relevant to my aphorism. Or shut the fuck up. Permalink 2020-08-16 13:30:15

@nntaleb We need a federal system. Last ditch solution. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:57:04

@nntaleb Nor did Pinker answer why he states Richardson’s analysis backward. Never corrected. Nor does he explain how an undefined (or infinite) mean can drop. #BSVendor Permalink 2020-08-16 12:44:25

@nntaleb The reason I said “dishonest” is because of other subsequent statistical analyses (like Clauset below) confirming our point: Pinker DID NOT answer them. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:41:30

@nntaleb A bunch of nitpickers making a historical distinction between “democracy” and “republic” irrelevant to the aphorism –like all nitpickers, fundamentally ignorant. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:16:11

@nntaleb My explanation. Permalink 2020-08-16 12:10:34

@nntaleb Interarrival time for large wars is 50-150 years, with mean deviation very high. Means he is talking noise. Permalink 2020-08-16 02:14:50

@nntaleb {1,1,1,0,0,0} and {1,0,1,0,1,0} have a ⅓ correlation. At the limit of n large, the CDF of a Bivariate normal in the positive quadrant for both variables. We can ignore the variance at root{n} because of symmetry. Permalink 2020-08-16 01:53:58

@nntaleb More evidence that 1) @sapinker is ignorant of statistics, 2) is dishonest about it. [Such reasoning (not the unethical part) is called the “Pinker Problem” in Stat Consequences of Fat Tails] Permalink 2020-08-16 01:50:44

@nntaleb My solution above is exact: 1/4 +\frac{ArcSin(⅓)} {2\pi} Permalink 2020-08-16 01:40:07

@nntaleb My solution is LOCALISM. Regional autonomy. No central state can work in Lebanon. Permalink 2020-08-16 01:37:57

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-16 01:36:00

@nntaleb New formatting for Principia Politica (similar to Stat Cons FT). Now I wonder if it should not be in the Technical Incerto rather than the Incerto. It is not written in an essay language, but a more formal document. Permalink 2020-08-15 21:16:18

@nntaleb Excess death are ALREADY >200K over similar pasr periods (reported death rate <= true death rate, to do stats properly). And that’s not the fucking point: he would be wrong even if he got the number right. You don’t make claims of n=1 in high variance. Can’t you get the point? Permalink 2020-08-15 19:02:23

@nntaleb Democracy: representation by a very narrow selection of people whose principal attributes & skills are that they are very, very good at being elected. Permalink 2020-08-15 18:36:43

@nntaleb You are mistaking the necessary for the sufficient Permalink 2020-08-15 18:27:38

@nntaleb 1- I never take any advice from someone I didn’t ask for advice. [Rephrased] Permalink 2020-08-15 18:26:55

@nntaleb There are other tests of moments, or use of EVT that can confirm. Permalink 2020-08-15 18:03:23

@nntaleb Marshmallowbrain, death rates are already higher than 170k Permalink 2020-08-15 17:59:50

@nntaleb Why does anyone take Michael Levitt seriously? It’s not that his predictions are wrong (they are), but worse: it is unrigorous to engage in single point predictions (n=1) in a high variance &/or Fat Tailed environment. Permalink 2020-08-15 16:56:57

@nntaleb No idea. Unblocked. Permalink 2020-08-15 16:19:03

@nntaleb Per le distribuzioni normale e lognormale l’incertezza aumenta con l’ “orizzonte” temporale. Per le code grasse, l’incertezza è sempre massima! Permalink 2020-08-15 15:56:44

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, I am not removing people who disagree, rather trolls and people who engage in sophistry. Like you. Permalink 2020-08-15 15:39:36

@nntaleb Journos fail to get that Shiites can BOTH worship Nasrallah & want him OUT of daily government. How? The French & Brits both worshiped & voted out De Gaulle & Churchill resp. after the war. The French called De Gaulle back for the Algerian war. Permalink 2020-08-15 15:28:37

@nntaleb The problem with #RWRI is that 20% of attendees are return students, #growing every time, so we may converge to a 100% repeat. Permalink 2020-08-15 11:50:44

@nntaleb Jean, not true. N W Levant (Galilee to Antioch+ Damascus) has ~no Peninsular genetics (all Med-Anatolian) Bt Syria has tons in SE Saudi Arabia has 13% Levantine-Anatolian genetics which may have confused some, But no need for a Levantine nation-state: as w/Scandinavia. Permalink 2020-08-15 11:46:35

@nntaleb “Considered” is not a metric (revelation of preferences). How many did? More than other months? Permalink 2020-08-15 01:40:19

@nntaleb I just showed that our grandmothers know more probability theory and risk management than @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein. Permalink 2020-08-15 01:19:36

@nntaleb Essaye par SCRIBE pour $50. Aussi on doit deplacer lundi. 2e session marche? Permalink 2020-08-15 01:17:10

@nntaleb He added “Gabish” to the intellectual tradition Permalink 2020-08-15 01:03:41

@nntaleb Sorry! Permalink 2020-08-14 21:53:54

@nntaleb You are welcome to barge in any time. Permalink 2020-08-14 21:41:09

@nntaleb RWRI Permalink 2020-08-14 15:02:36

@nntaleb GDP is off Permalink 2020-08-14 11:23:21

@nntaleb This is mostly because Kucharski is a “peer-review” poseur does not understand fat tails & their consequences. Epidemiologists are stuck in a citation ring. See our discussion with Ioannidis. Permalink 2020-08-14 11:17:50

@nntaleb New grind Permalink 2020-08-14 11:11:46

@nntaleb Excellent service you are getting, namesake. The big boss is taking care of this. Permalink 2020-08-13 20:39:45

@nntaleb Sir Karl usually wears open neck sweaters. Permalink 2020-08-13 18:14:19

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-13 17:33:37

@nntaleb Covid models Optional #RWRI session with Diego Zviovich Permalink 2020-08-13 17:31:56

@nntaleb @dzviovich Permalink 2020-08-13 14:57:23

@nntaleb Not kidding. The publisher-facilitator makes a yuuuuge difference when you go for maximum quality, no compromise. Physical books are objects, not disposable items. @zachobront Permalink 2020-08-13 12:13:54

@nntaleb I told you so Permalink 2020-08-13 12:11:59

@nntaleb It is all in the olive smell and the paper quality. Permalink 2020-08-13 12:08:44

@nntaleb Friends, the book is back in stock on AMZN and below. We still guarantee the $49.95 for worldwide shipping. But I have a question: why the f*** are so many people interested in a technical book? Because of the colors? the olive smell? Permalink 2020-08-13 11:58:59

@nntaleb JACOBINISM Friends, in French Jacobinisms maps exactly to my nightmare: a centralized nation-state w/IYIs running it, coupled with a monolithic national identity (anti-localism, anti-minorities, anti-multiculturalism). What would be the corresponding English term? Permalink 2020-08-13 10:53:16

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile I spent ⅓ of my time in Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-13 10:44:29

@nntaleb Same as in Western Aramaic? Permalink 2020-08-12 23:48:37

@nntaleb In other words, better say “I don’t know” then “I now know” than say “I know”, then “I didn’t know”. #RWRI Permalink 2020-08-12 14:42:38

@nntaleb RWRI 14 Online #RWRI 15 instructors, 12 in the room. Permalink 2020-08-12 14:29:18

@nntaleb “You exist in full if and only if your conversation (or writings) can not be easily reconstructed with clips from other conversations. “ Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-08-12 12:03:12

@nntaleb Ounce of precaution vs pound of cure Our precautionary approach to COVID has been to become progressively less worried as we got additional information. The WHO, newsidiots, & bureaucrats did exact opposite: acted more worried as they received more information. #RWRI #RWRI14 Permalink 2020-08-12 12:00:49

@nntaleb Med doors Permalink 2020-08-12 00:14:11

@nntaleb No comparison. Not close. Permalink 2020-08-11 21:41:15

@nntaleb Fucking idiot get your comparisons right. My readers do not barge into my living room or troll my other readers. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:50:22

@nntaleb He does not know what totalitarian means. A feed is a private property. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:22:00

@nntaleb There is nothing wrong with the “joke”. Permalink 2020-08-11 20:21:10

@nntaleb Done Permalink 2020-08-11 19:23:02

@nntaleb Diab is not evil, just v. naive. The myth is that ministers control ministries. Insiders (decades) can resist their control. The only cure is: Augean stable/smashing bureaucracies, & decentralization. Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. #localism Permalink 2020-08-11 12:15:37

@nntaleb It did not hit this moron @DavidDaoud that the fellow is not speaking Arabic but Levantine. Permalink 2020-08-11 10:24:54

@nntaleb Almost: All models are wrong, many are useful, some are deadly. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:43:51

@nntaleb There are scholarships. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:38:26

@nntaleb This time the ratio is much much higher. Permalink 2020-08-11 00:37:41

@nntaleb Slavic from where? Permalink 2020-08-10 16:47:55

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-10 10:34:30

@nntaleb Used to be Ba7r l Rum Permalink 2020-08-10 09:27:59

@nntaleb I can unblock Permalink 2020-08-09 22:28:00

@nntaleb Same. Permalink 2020-08-09 21:37:51

@nntaleb DIFFERENT VARIETIES OF PEACE Peace between Israelis & Palestinians cannot happen from the top (a la Oslo). Peace between Israel & Hezbollah/Iran can easily happen from the top because the tension is from the top. Permalink 2020-08-09 20:30:59

@nntaleb Some bitter imbecile I’ve blocked. Permalink 2020-08-09 20:27:09

@nntaleb Levantines in Mexico are fish in water. Permalink 2020-08-09 19:46:00

@nntaleb Nothing to do with Phoenicianism. Levant is part of Anatolia, a cluster Turkey-Armenia-Cyprus-Greece, our brothers in food, dance, genetic, etc. Permalink 2020-08-09 19:39:24

@nntaleb Spain is Med as hell Permalink 2020-08-09 18:49:43

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Mediterranean Again #MakeLebanonMediterraneanAgain And for our other Med brothers in the Levant #MakeTheLevantMediterraneanAgain Permalink 2020-08-09 18:09:07

@nntaleb No, no, no, please! Real reviews are of the type you just did: spontaneously and linked to YOUR understanding. Please continue the way you started. Permalink 2020-08-09 17:58:14

@nntaleb Triple imbecile you are not getting the point and it has NOTHING to do with books on probability. Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 16:54:46

@nntaleb My first book review by a real user. Permalink 2020-08-09 16:52:45

@nntaleb Moving on is not geographic, idiot. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:34:25

@nntaleb No, fuck that. Probability. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:17:44

@nntaleb Family, imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 14:16:44

@nntaleb You don’t get the notion of neutrality? The judge should be one of the parties? Permalink 2020-08-09 14:15:30

@nntaleb You seem clueless. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:57:36

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:52:54

@nntaleb Yes government is using it to prevent riots but still can’t compare numbers. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:52:14

@nntaleb No double blind study. We need volunteers. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:48:31

@nntaleb UN Security Council: We require an independent investigation – Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-08-09 13:47:05

@nntaleb Good ideas about rent seeking. But he is no scholar. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:40:48

@nntaleb Family name? Can look up Permalink 2020-08-09 13:19:14

@nntaleb Blood disease markers match NW Greece. Permalink 2020-08-09 13:16:26

@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability (uses Gaussian metrics outside domain). All papers are flawed. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:54:40

@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:53:55

@nntaleb Many Maronites are Armenians, All Sunnis are of Rum origin. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:52:17

@nntaleb We had Russia before 1917. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:32:42

@nntaleb We the Rum do not consider ourselves “Greek” (a nation-state modern invention in the 1800s) but Romaics (Byzantine), closer to “Hellenistic”. That is, East Romans, un point c’est tout. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:31:43

@nntaleb Most Rum in the Koura are actually Macedonian in origin; Those in N Syria are Anatolian-Aegean Greeks. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:29:55

@nntaleb Please read the paper before rehashing platitudes. It is not our point. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:17:29

@nntaleb Science is not about naive “evidence”; science is about properties, some of which can be revealed by evidence. Our paper in the debate with Ioannidis. Permalink 2020-08-09 12:07:28

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-09 11:30:47

@nntaleb No, and not >= but strict equality. = 1 is an exponential (memoriless) Permalink 2020-08-09 11:02:57

@nntaleb INTELLECTUAL VERBALISMS Ms. Saad assumes that if people are fed up w/corruption, it *necessarily* comes from geopolitics, a US-concocted plot and neo-colonialism. No, Iranian influence is a native thing, not interventionism at all. Note: BTW, Iran is bankrupt. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:51:45

@nntaleb There is no “evidence” a spear through the skull represents significant danger, since I never saw a “peer-reviewed” paper to that effect. #EvidenceBasedBS #WearAMaskForTheSakeofOthers Permalink 2020-08-09 10:46:49

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-09 10:40:44

@nntaleb I block for bullshitting. You want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-08-09 10:39:08

@nntaleb My father found that (Ruffiè and Taleb, 1964) from rare blood diseases. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:35:35

@nntaleb \frac{1}{a} E(X | X>=a) >1 Permalink 2020-08-09 10:34:39

@nntaleb Comes partly from S. Italians and Etruscans being Anatolian, same as Canaanites. They came from the same place. Permalink 2020-08-09 10:28:44

@nntaleb Can’t compare because the latter number is a function of precaution. Permalink 2020-08-09 09:52:25

@nntaleb Kurtosis ~3 Permalink 2020-08-09 01:36:18

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-09 01:09:03

@nntaleb Grandfather MP voted for Bachir. Permalink 2020-08-09 00:30:13

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-09 00:20:48

@nntaleb You know it’s a fraud: not by looking at the merchant, but just by looking at the customers. Permalink 2020-08-09 00:18:15

@nntaleb Localism Permalink 2020-08-08 23:22:43

@nntaleb Where did I say that ? Permalink 2020-08-08 22:22:49

@nntaleb Bullshitting != making mistakes Permalink 2020-08-08 21:56:00

@nntaleb I spent ⅓ of the time there. Go lecture someone else. Permalink 2020-08-08 21:43:22

@nntaleb I never block people who make mistakes, @kareem_carr. Permalink 2020-08-08 21:18:23

@nntaleb Not quite Permalink 2020-08-08 21:05:07

@nntaleb Give me a week for the new organization. Might be the Lebanese Red Cross. Thanks. Permalink 2020-08-08 20:30:52

@nntaleb Dist of #of runs, not max (yet) Permalink 2020-08-08 20:29:48

@nntaleb OK, Let me up the stakes, @octonion What is the distribution of the number of runs? (a run is an uninterrupted succession of H or T). This will allow us to get the exact expected maximum run. Ours was still a numerical hudge. (math to clear up my mind owing to #Lebanon ) Permalink 2020-08-08 19:41:50

@nntaleb Mediterraneans. Permalink 2020-08-08 19:27:36

@nntaleb Of course, send it back to where you bought it. Permalink 2020-08-08 19:26:56

@nntaleb WTF? Lebanese ≠ “Arab” Permalink 2020-08-08 19:13:17

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-08 18:49:37

@nntaleb Bravo! Permalink 2020-08-08 18:47:08

@nntaleb Thank you Twitter. The tweet👇generated >$30K (excluding my contribution). Will repeat in a few days with another organization (#diversification). Permalink 2020-08-08 18:08:24

@nntaleb Necessary and Sufficient. #Lebanon Permalink 2020-08-08 18:01:33

@nntaleb Immediate elections. But better to be slow in cleaning shops [corruption] because of the French Revolution. The more you delay the worse the cleanup gets. Permalink 2020-08-08 17:35:37

@nntaleb Mabruk! Permalink 2020-08-08 17:26:41

@nntaleb Nothing in history that moved fast EVER worked. Transitions work. #Burke Permalink 2020-08-08 17:08:34

@nntaleb Cheers, [signed] XXX Permalink 2020-08-08 17:03:47

@nntaleb Idiots. Permalink 2020-08-08 16:43:34

@nntaleb This info by @halimshebaya is NOT false info. Many officials from corrupt regimes buy properties via LLC in the US. #MarwanPonzi Kheireddine is a beneficial owner of the LLC. People who bankrupt their banks can’t be smart. #MarwanPonzi was unable to hide his identity. Permalink 2020-08-08 16:26:22

@nntaleb x^2+1/x^2+2=5 (x+1/x)=sqrt(5) x=(\sqrt(5) \pm 1)½ Permalink 2020-08-08 14:10:47

@nntaleb There is a story about *some* “top” epidemiologists not understanding masks (nor epidemiology, nor convexity, nor life, nor much else). Wear a mask for the sake of others. Permalink 2020-08-08 13:02:05

@nntaleb Salemtak! Permalink 2020-08-08 11:55:49

@nntaleb This @mar1_k must first explain. Then eventually pay for this. Unlike with Madoff, all Lebanese Ponzi participants are still at large. “If you see fraud and don’t shout fraud you are a fraud.” Permalink 2020-08-08 11:33:43

@nntaleb Best to cancel and reorder on link above. Permalink 2020-08-08 11:18:22

@nntaleb No, Self-remade. Permalink 2020-08-08 10:57:15

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:26:17

@nntaleb Localism, I keep saying. You don’t replace a government that harms you with more government. Self-organization and bottom up government. Take things into your own hands. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:23:47

@nntaleb Excellent detection of the contradiction. I use revenge in my personal life, when it is a deterrent, but not in my collective-political one when things are settled. Permalink 2020-08-08 00:21:58

@nntaleb John Gray’s recommendation Permalink 2020-08-07 21:42:38

@nntaleb I block idiots. The only colonialism in Lebanon is 500 y of Ottoman, in which minorities learned to thrive (#Antifragile) (Fr spent 20 y as a LON mandate). “Past injustices fuel present injustices and focusing on those isn’t a weakness.” Some idiot looking for problem. Permalink 2020-08-07 19:33:55

@nntaleb Byzantine. Permalink 2020-08-07 19:27:15

@nntaleb Can someone dig Bo Winegard’s income? I bet you it is less than a blue collar person. cc:@Monsantobuster Permalink 2020-08-07 18:51:29

@nntaleb W inté wein 3éyesh? Permalink 2020-08-07 18:29:20

@nntaleb Into min 7aret l faw2a? Permalink 2020-08-07 18:09:53

@nntaleb 3indé 7ada ma3 Fresh $$$bi Bairut W kamén bb3at Bitcoin la 3alam. Permalink 2020-08-07 17:18:23

@nntaleb Too much sun Permalink 2020-08-07 17:12:36

@nntaleb Confirmed. Permalink 2020-08-07 17:11:01

@nntaleb Finally found source; added it to references. Permalink 2020-08-07 16:34:04

@nntaleb I have been giving direct to people hurt in #Lebanon, no intermediary. But for those w/o the network, I verified this group (I know some of the people involved very well; they are volunteers) and (#SKinInTheGame) will give also them $$to match some of your donations. Permalink 2020-08-07 16:24:42

@nntaleb I am not interested in people liking me. I am interested in people READING me. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:05:47

@nntaleb 2) Most of these colonial studies are built around retrospective acrimony as an industry by itself, by rent-seeking academics. Move on. Life is not zero sum. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:03:23

@nntaleb The more you get stuck in the past at past historical slights, the worse your progress. Move on; getting rich is the best revenge. In 1982 Assad (père) & warlord Frangié blew up our house in Amioun. I got rich & we built a bigger one. My way of saying F***k you. Permalink 2020-08-07 14:00:14

@nntaleb Prayers.🙏 Permalink 2020-08-07 13:51:16

@nntaleb Can’t you read a tweet? Reread above. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:40:42

@nntaleb Yes, non top-down Permalink 2020-08-07 13:36:58

@nntaleb Amazon recommending me to buy my own book. The book should be back in stock on AMZN next week. Meanwhile there is stock here: for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95.… Remember the PDF is Free Permalink 2020-08-07 13:35:21

@nntaleb Sub-imbecile, DNA of Lebanese (Muslims and Christians) is close to Imperial Romans. Sub-imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:29:31

@nntaleb Let’s be open to both interpretations. The Orthodox were sympathetic to the Ottomans, but we were not allowed to have bells in our churches. Catherine changed that. I think that the problems started as vicious circles of nationalism after the Greek independence wars. Permalink 2020-08-07 13:08:56

@nntaleb Idiots who recite post-colonial studies don’t get it that the Ottomans spent 500 years in Lebanon, the French military came as a League of Nations Mandate for ~22 years. French “influence”, if anything, decreased (Arabism + American University). Permalink 2020-08-07 12:16:56

@nntaleb Block conspiracy theorists. Permalink 2020-08-07 12:10:49

@nntaleb Salemtkon. Weyn kinto lamma saret? Permalink 2020-08-07 12:00:45

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:58:59

@nntaleb Theories by nuance-blind idiots. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:47:51

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:46:40

@nntaleb Localism Permalink 2020-08-07 11:40:26

@nntaleb Hi, we discontinued as the quality is of Book Depository is sub par. It is Print on Demand You can return it if you wish and order from the US the real one. Permalink 2020-08-07 11:38:30

@nntaleb I block idiots Permalink 2020-08-06 23:44:20

@nntaleb Apple cash is free! Permalink 2020-08-06 21:07:01

@nntaleb Can you help get a direct wire for larger $$? No fees, unlike Paypal, etc. Permalink 2020-08-06 20:32:25

@nntaleb Now, the real problemo. What is the distribution of the mean run? Permalink 2020-08-06 20:06:00

@nntaleb Bingo. The problem is the grievance industry. Permalink 2020-08-06 20:04:14

@nntaleb Do they go into fresh $$accounts? Permalink 2020-08-06 19:49:40

@nntaleb Blocked Permalink 2020-08-06 16:57:05

@nntaleb 2) Of the 3 million Gauls in what is now France, 1 million were killed, 1 million enslaved. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:56:55

@nntaleb STATUTES OF LIMITATION The French-Algerian war was 60 years ago. Unless you consider it settled, you are opening up to endless boomerangs of grief. For the Gauls were invaded & exterminated by Julius Cesar 2000 y ago. Should they ask Rome for reparation? Move on. Look ahead. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:50:09

@nntaleb No, just block. I did. Ostrakon. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:40:02

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff? Permalink 2020-08-06 16:36:34

@nntaleb I blocked him. Despicable man. Permalink 2020-08-06 16:01:24

@nntaleb CONSPIRACY THEORIES/FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS I explained in FBR how journos tend to always assign causes to random market moves. I stopped reading newspapers early on in my career. It is the exact same mechanism that makes us see conspiracies in place of accidents. Permalink 2020-08-06 14:51:38

@nntaleb OK, blocked. All conspiracy theories are blocked. Permalink 2020-08-06 14:41:39

@nntaleb Salemetkon Permalink 2020-08-06 14:25:34

@nntaleb Macron, we owe you. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:59:53

@nntaleb Fucking idiot show me the genetic evidence. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:51:19

@nntaleb Yves Smith is doing the job no journalist does anymore. Permalink 2020-08-06 13:35:29

@nntaleb My bedroom in Beirut (in the family place). Permalink 2020-08-06 13:29:16

@nntaleb Made in London from descriptions Permalink 2020-08-06 12:14:13

@nntaleb You seem to be on the wrong footing. You can’t seek peace by fighting a faction. They are the ones you need to deal with. Permalink 2020-08-06 12:09:10

@nntaleb I guess the debate about the “value” of tail risk hedging has ended. Permalink 2020-08-06 12:00:16

@nntaleb Good Permalink 2020-08-06 11:33:40

@nntaleb Good. But will take a while to thaw the ice. Permalink 2020-08-06 11:28:14

@nntaleb My question is: who died and how? Permalink 2020-08-06 00:19:05

@nntaleb ? Permalink 2020-08-05 23:52:54

@nntaleb My endorsement for his next book: “Gad Saad has more intellectual courage than many entire departments.” Permalink 2020-08-05 23:49:32

@nntaleb His Gadness has so much intellectual courage that I would never betray him. Permalink 2020-08-05 23:44:49

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has to do with food & sophistication Permalink 2020-08-05 23:02:11

@nntaleb Skin in the game. He is going to Lebanon tomorrow, after sending troops. No empty talk. Permalink 2020-08-05 22:45:34

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-08-05 22:34:35

@nntaleb This approach is critical and explains the parsimonious character of Extreme Value Theory: to figure out if a sequence is random, instead of counting heads and tails, start by looking at the maxima. See how much it diverges from 8. Permalink 2020-08-05 22:02:16

@nntaleb The formula would be to integrate ^250/mean assuming the distribution of the mean. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:13:40

@nntaleb No, a fudge. The 125 is a fudge. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:09:55

@nntaleb Waiting for more such studies. Morbidity seems to affect mild cases, as presumed in our debate with Ioannidis (Taleb Bar Yam, Cirillo, 2020, IJF). You need to account for morbidity, not just fatality, rates. Permalink 2020-08-05 20:01:59

@nntaleb Is there a BTC => Fresh dollars market? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-05 17:12:53

@nntaleb Fresh $$account Permalink 2020-08-05 16:02:42

@nntaleb 2/Some people on the thread are recommending NGOs. I tend to go direct, avoid professionals. Someone I know. And if you pick an organization, take one with volunteers, no professional staff. Permalink 2020-08-05 15:01:11

@nntaleb Nobody needs your prayers. Permalink 2020-08-05 14:54:24

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Stop the BS & the statements. Find pple in your circle who lost their home & offer $$to rebuild. Talk is cheap. Don’t call with words, call with $$. Now. PS- I block everyone engaging in conspiracy theories under such a tragedy. Permalink 2020-08-05 14:51:50

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