Monthly Archives: March 2019

Entropy, Monsanto, Mutual Information, “European”, Localism, Correlation, Leaving NY, IQ, Pinker, DUNNING-K | Twitter

@paulportesi Seriously I f****** love waking up to this. Entropy methods better than correlation in nonlinearities. F****** brilliant.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 30 Mar 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Just to show the vast superiority of Entropy methods such as Mutual Information over correlation, and to show how correlation breaks down under nonlinearity, consider high Mutual information but “zero correlation” in the case of a straddle: Permalink 5:19 AM – 30 Mar 2019

@vonkronstadt   Permalink 3:02 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@Gordon48814362 “Wittgenstein argues, among other things, that superficial grammatical similarities in the forms of both religious and factual statements mislead us into believing that they are fundamentally identical states of “belief.”” This is @nntaleb ‘s point, protestants got it mixed up Permalink 2:22 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@CaseyBHead Americans lost confidence in political parties, public schools, courts, organized labor, banks, big business, media and other institutions because they didn’t change with society. We need to create robust, decentralized, voluntary institutions.   Permalink 12:29 PM – 29 Mar 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @mises @WarrenBuffett #Greenspan @jaegerlecoultre #MarxBrothers #Moonraker Permalink 11:20 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@thackerpd Roundup Trial: Monsanto Used Fake Data to Win Over Regulators   #Monsanto planted an employee at a lab to fake data Planned an attack on @IARCWHO Exploited ties at the @EPA ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:43 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Institutions tend to work at their beginning. So does centralization. Then rotting starts. Permalink 5:28 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 1:33 AM – 29 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This is the free copy of the paper   Permalink 2:21 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FINALLY PUBLISHED How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for f…   Permalink 1:22 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FINALLY PUBLISHED How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for f…   Permalink 1:22 PM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Question about convention in @WolframResearch’s Mathematica with the dot product vs multiplication. What is standard for X .Transpose [Y] vs X Y ? @SwedeWhite Permalink 10:41 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 100% of Survival is reliability. — CNN is committing suicide. Even its partisans, those who cheer its slant on the news, will rapidly scorn it. #Lindy Permalink 9:58 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism @nntaleb @normonics ?   Permalink 6:54 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb No Monsanto shill & people who engage in vile smear campaigns against scientists skeptical of GMOs/Glyphosate should remain unaccountable. Gabish? @EconTalker   Permalink 4:30 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto…   via @amazon Permalink 3:56 AM – 28 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Antonio Spadaro, friend for 8 years, squid ink Grand Maestro. Permalink 5:19 PM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Antonio Spadaro of New Rochelle (and Sicily) , (very) proud of his squid ink risotto! Permalink 4:58 PM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The next contagion of costly virtue signaling.   Permalink 10:12 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@nntaleb To be precise, Hagia Sophia’s “original” state is, technically, a church (actually, a Cathedral).   Permalink 7:53 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@ggreenwald The entire purpose of this 8,000-wrod @NewYorker profile was to depict me as being mentally unwell – psychologically damaged and full of rage and resentment – as the explanation for why I refused to stop questioning the undeniable truth of collusion   Permalink 7:52 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@PZalloua It is here!!!   Permalink 7:43 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@mythoughtfood Proof that science is an über slow process. ” For centuries, scholars have argued over his account because there was no archaeological evidence that such ships ever existed. ” Now the ship exists. Classic case of absence of evidence confused with evidence of absence @nntaleb   Permalink 5:01 AM – 27 Mar 2019

@CTBnutrition @nntaleb thank you for standing up to these crooks and inspiring others to do so as well. Permalink 6:12 PM – 26 Mar 2019

@davidsarac Curiosity which leads to tinkering brings forward emergence & transformation. Creativity which obsesses about novelty results in social degeneration Curiosity is underrated in current day and age, while creativity is severely overrated. Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A Byzantine health station in North Lebanon. Two of my ancestors come from there.   Permalink 8:47 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb @felhagehistoire Permalink 8:46 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A Historian showing the link between the French revolution & lack of skin in the game on the part of aristocrats, who owe their initial status to the fact that they need to take risk w/their lives for others. There is something annoying in status without risk and #skininthegame Permalink 8:42 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mutual information sheds light on why low correlations are meaningless. Things are now clearer and clearer. Permalink 7:41 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@GreenFuzz24 Answer to global problems and uncertainty is the total opposite: fractal localism. See: @nntaleb   Permalink 7:40 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BEAUTIFUL DISCOVERY Unlike correlation, Mutual Information (cross entropy) is additive. On that, later. Permalink 4:50 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@Cernovich He was the head of the CIA. That’s what I take away most from the Russian collusion hoax. The power they have over human lives. How many people did Brennan have tortured based on his intel? These are evil people.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@ektrit   Permalink 1:21 AM – 26 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Confused by Correlation?   Permalink 1:35 PM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Paul Krugman @paulkrugman remains the best argument for the suspension of the “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”.   Permalink 7:32 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@ektrit Current concept of “European” was conceived in the 19th century meaning “Not Muslim”, or “Not Turk”, that is why Europe is being handled as a separate “continent”, while not being an actual continent.   Permalink 5:40 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Stephennie Mulder @stephenniem is another one who falls for the trap of Northern European Supremacism & Med denigration under cover of “diversity”   Permalink 4:40 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb My entire book Fooled by Randomness was that the modern interpretation of “Intelligence” (as reflected in IQ tests/school grades) seems to favor those prone to be *fooled by false patterns* over those who can intellectually grasp the notion of randomness/absence of information.   Permalink 4:13 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “European” is a modern term, not a genetic term. “Western Eurasian” is the genetic zone, which largely contradicts her point. Why are ideological historians so ignorant?   Permalink 3:54 AM – 25 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Not #Lindy.   Permalink 5:25 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@ggreenwald Turning on Mueller and impugning his integrity and competence is the inevitable outcome – it’s the only play the Trump/Russia devotees have – and here’s the start:   Permalink 4:47 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@lebanonpics Lebanon Houses Permalink 12:11 PM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb When people get rich, they start follow the constructed preferences by the marketing industry, get hoodwinked into complicated lives… then, if they are lucky, give up.   Permalink 7:28 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb If you explicitly understand what you *really* like, you have a yuuuge advantage in life. γνῶθι σεαυτόν Permalink 7:22 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@nntaleb People don’t know their preferences: they think they like large houses, but prefer to huddle in small spaces over large empty silent rooms. Never ask pple what they “like”, watch what they do. #Skininthegame   via @WSJ Permalink 7:16 AM – 24 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – “any person psychopathologizing another, particularly when there is political divergence.” – Serial nitpickers – Lobbyists – Pple who answer “stick to your discipline” instead of counterargument – Someone abusing language w/”racist”, “nazi”, etc. Permalink 6:11 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – people who don’t get that tweets and aphorisms don’t need hedging – people with cute remarks on math problems – people who give unsolicited advice – people who make logical mistakes – people who represent Monsanto/Saudi Barbaria Permalink 6:10 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt – Charlatans and socialists offer positive, non via negativa “solutions” – people (mostly verbalistic psychologists) w/whom [@nntaleb] DO[es] NOT want to have an exchange because you DO[es] NOT learn/advance from bullshit. – sophistry Permalink 6:08 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@TheBigYogurt Without further ado, a list of blockable offenses according to @nntaleb (who once blocked me, forcing me to create a new account (don’t block me bro)) Source:   – idiots – people who discuss @nntaleb’s tone – anyone who mentions dunning-kruger in his feed Permalink 6:07 PM – 23 Mar 2019

@JordiLlatzer You NEVER are able to change just one square on a Rubik cube. That’s how complex systems work. That is how life works. Permalink 11:29 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 10:11 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@nntaleb For Power law, it is … worse. 2 Quadrants will have a negative correlation! Permalink 10:01 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@Jaffer22915438 I will never stay silent about our government’s and MSM’s lust for war and will call out every pinhead jackass who lie to bring death & destruction abroad. if you have a few minutes, read Taibbi’s latest:   Permalink 4:31 AM – 23 Mar 2019

@NathanH48069967 As @nntaleb maintains: we need localism. “. . . you can’t fool the neighborhood. . .” “. . built a massive . . structure that . . James Howard Kunstler would later liken to a “Darth Vader building”. .” Southern Poverty Law Center   Permalink 8:44 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb An illustration of my point that “Psychology is a self-referential publishing ring”.   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Please explain “correlation”. Now. Permalink 6:37 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The first casualy of the metric is the “Sortino ratio” used in finance. Permalink 6:21 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists like @EPoe187 are *genuinely* convinced that theirs is a science, and that their measurements are like those in physics.   Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mike @mikeharrisNY explains it better than anyone else.   Permalink 2:47 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb From those wondering who is the Dan from Prague, he is the one who gave me the most effective blurb ever written on the back of a book. Permalink 2:44 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I got the intuition in 1 D, from variance. Permalink 2:38 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@mikeharrisNY The way I see it: due to intricate properties of corr function, sub-sample corr cannot be inferred from sample corr when those sub-samples are not random but refer to specific ranges. Applies to IQ-income corr. Applies to finance and has fooled portfolio managers. Major discovery Permalink 2:08 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally found Dan from Prague.   Permalink 12:28 PM – 21 Mar 2019

@garyruskin Fired Quebec scientist blew the whistle on #pesticide lobby influence. Via @NatObserver @ottawacarl   “the union said he was trying to alert his superiors about attempts by industry to suppress publicly-funded science on the health effects of pesticides.” Permalink 10:20 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This is a Monte Carlo code for replication to prove I am not hallucinating Permalink 8:07 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Look here: I break up a quadrant into 4 subquadrants. Correlation keeps getting lower. Reason: correlation is convex. Permalink 7:48 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Typos Permalink 7:11 AM – 21 Mar 2019

@355BC326BC The Greek Orthodox Cathedral of Saint George, the Mother-Cathedral of the Orthodox community in the city of Beirut, Lebanon. Permalink 9:25 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Correlation is Weird: all non random subsamples will yield a correlation below the total one. Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@rorysutherland Cheap talk versus skin in the game!   Permalink 1:14 PM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb @SClarkeWriter Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Cyprus = Lebanon without the egos.   Permalink 4:17 PM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Monsanto spent $$$ insulting science by transforming it into propaganda, smearing scientists & pple like yours truly who were skeptical of their risk management. Bayer had the brilliant idea of buying Monsanto. From here on, the process is unstoppable!   Permalink 3:59 PM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb #Mars2019 Permalink 10:36 AM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb ” Yém7é ésmo w Zkro” is an ancient Mediterranean practice יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ The equivalent is “damnatio memoriae” for the Romans.   Permalink 5:22 AM – 19 Mar 2019

@nntaleb My review of Stephen Clarke’s book on the French Revolution.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:37 PM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb So correlation, even under nonlinearities, has a strict narrow meaning. When correlation is 80% it will be insignificant in 2 quadrants (.02), and .57 in others. Even something taken for granted s.a. correlation is hard. Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb You can see through the BS by having a single plot “IQ” vs “Age at death” with a VERY large sample (general population) without control schmontrol and all the discussions. THEN do you do analytics. Permalink 7:59 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Analytic Solution is Done. We can see Correlation is sub and superadditive pending on Quadrant. And what happens with different Quadrant Correlations. Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Where I discover that the common Levantine name”Fares” or “Phares” does not mean “horserider” but comes from Φαρές, the Syrian-Greek transliteration of the Hebrew “Perez” or “Peretz” פרץ son of Judah. @WalidPhares Permalink 7:01 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Scott Adams blocked a bunch of people (including me) over the remark. It is hard for laymen to be told: “Sutor, ne ultra crepidam”   Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Can Mr @JoshuaGrubbsPhD, PhD show us the error terms of his graph? Just an honest plot with all the data points will suffice. Thank you.   Permalink 5:42 AM – 18 Mar 2019

@financequant I don’t always know how to succeed, but I know how to survive–and I sure as hell am not ready to give up. Permalink 1:25 PM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In my manifesto I discuss a SCALE TRANSFORMATION: A group of assholes pursuing asshole interests under the rule of law produces a virtuous society; A group of moralizing utopianists trying to make society virtuous produce …hell. Adding complexity to Mandeville/Smith. Permalink 10:40 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb For those into envy politics who plan on taxing the rich as sitting duck, remember the properties of power laws: between ½ & 2% of taxpayers paid up to 50% of state taxes. At the margin, the departure of 5-10 people can bankrupt a state! IYIs think in statics not dynamics. Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am not fully leaving NY yet, just using it as a “secondary” residence for now (I spent less than 4-5 months there anyway). Just to make sure these socialist lunatics don’t surprise me with some expropriation. Permalink 9:30 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Received the incredibly well made book by ⁦@drjasonfung⁩ and ⁦@drjamesdinic⁩. They use the potent designation “nonfood items”. I wonder how many nutritional studies would still hold their conclusions if we removed “nonfoods” from the tests. Science is hard. Permalink 9:21 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@Monsantobuster GMO arguments by shills. cc:@nntaleb Permalink 6:45 AM – 17 Mar 2019

@nntaleb NY will soon learn that only way you can enforce socialism is by closing borders and keeping people trapped inside (Cuba, Soviet bloc). People vote with their feet: a mechanism by which organic systems enforce selection. Permalink 5:42 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I just got a thingy in Atlanta to move away from these suicidal lunatics in NY.   Permalink 3:39 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The word “Wine” <- vinum <- οίνος (->vin, vino, etc.) comes from the Phoenician יין (Yayn). Affaire closed. #Lindy. Permalink 3:27 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BEWARE THE “JUST SO” It was always assumed that civilization began with agriculture. Gobekli Tepe, though, was built 500 years before its people built their first farms.   Permalink 1:15 PM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Clearer: Shows the quadrant-dependent nature of correlation (and its su-additivity) EVEN in the absence of nonlinearities. Permalink 10:00 AM – 16 Mar 2019

@mrraoofi After so many years using the word “IQ” instead of “intelligence” or “cleverness”, many people have difficulty understanding the point @nntaleb makes about the swindle which is IQ. You say: IQ, they hear: intelligence or mental capacity,…. Permalink 1:09 AM – 16 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A simple Monte Carlo showing how correlation is NOT ADDITIVE; sums of quadrant correlations do nto match the aggregate. Analytical solution done but needs trimming. @apgox Permalink 6:53 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FOOLED BY CORRELATION: even when rho=0, we see positive correlation in the double negative quadrants. Without even adding nonlinearities. Statistics is hard. Permalink 2:36 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FOr the nth time, it is not that IQ does not measure social skills/wisdom, etc. It DOES NOT MEASURE MENTAL CAPACITY. Gabish?   Permalink 12:15 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb More background info   Permalink 12:13 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Same story for income. Above average income there is NO correlation. A “low IQ” person as likely to get a higher income. Permalink 12:00 PM – 15 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The IQ situation even worse. Found that here is no correlation IQ- income/wealth at highers levels EVEN FOR LOW IQ. Hence the math used for “g” fails. Psycholophasters do not seem to know what correlations mean under nonlinearity. And, BTW @jordanbPeterson is a quack. Permalink 11:56 AM – 15 Mar 2019

@hugowiz «They are also prone to mistake the ensemble for the linear aggregation of its components—that is, they think that our understanding of single individuals allows us to understand crowds and markets …» Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #IYI #Intellectuals Permalink 8:19 AM – 15 Mar 2019

@IlhanMN The Saudi royal family has literally helped fund Al Qaeda. This is the debate no one wants to have but needs to be had. Saudi accountability is long overdue.   Permalink 12:09 PM – 14 Mar 2019

@RandPaul Jailed Saudi female activists have been subjected to torture, beatings, electric shocks, and sexual abuse. Don’t sell arms to barbarians!   Permalink 11:24 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Joe @normonics means NO to corporatocracy.   Permalink 9:41 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb If there is someone spreading statistical illiteracy & naive empiricism, it is @sapinker. Statistics is hard.   Permalink 6:47 AM – 14 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Universa meeting in Miami. Permalink 4:17 PM – 13 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Why “good” forecasters go bust and how the literature in psych on decision theory is at least 2000 years behind Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Yes, when said wage is low. Ironically you are freest at low income; much much more than when in the middle class.   Permalink 5:11 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Final typos removed Permalink 3:36 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Formal proof Permalink 3:04 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Applying it to the Lognormal Permalink 2:39 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fus7a is largely a fabricated language used by poets to impress poets. @Safaitic is by far the most insightful linguist I’ve ever encountered.   Permalink 1:47 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb DUNNING-K From now on, I block anyone mentioning Dunning-Kruger in my feed. 1) It doesn’t really exist (bad science by psycholophasters), 2) it doesn’t really apply in most cases where mentioned. Gabish? Permalink 12:09 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Hint: as volatility rises, because the distribution is bounded to the left, the probability of exceeding any level goes to 0, with the mass a Dirac at 0. The point is that all the expectation is owed to a single low probability tail event. Permalink 12:00 PM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A bureaucrat is judged by other bureaucrats. That’s the root of the problem. Permalink 11:47 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@tedcruz First time I’ve ever retweeted @ewarren But she’s right—Big Tech has way too much power to silence Free Speech. They shouldn’t be censoring Warren, or anybody else. A serious threat to our democracy.   Permalink 10:40 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In the past, scholars who were not financially independent were directly funded by Maecenas —rich patrons. Today they are funded by bureaucrats. #Skininthegame Permalink 10:12 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ du jour Permalink 8:37 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In #Antifragile: Making pilots rely on automation… Permalink 7:50 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@Firsou He gets it.   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Looks like in spite of all of the arguments, psychologists s.a. @NickWolfinger and his BS vending econ friends @ATabarrok et al. do not know what correlation means, how it works under nonlinarities, etc. They are not even at par to understand the insults.   Permalink 6:03 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Indeed someone in the Administration is heeding the practical suggestions associated with #Skininthegame. Trump’s Budget: Permalink 5:21 AM – 12 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The passage in #Antifragile Permalink 12:05 PM – 11 Mar 2019

@holland_tom “A God who didn’t really suffer on the cross would be like magician who performed an illusion” – @nntaleb on the implications of the docetist Christ having no skin in the game.   Permalink 11:25 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I meant The LAW OF MEDIUM NUMBERS Permalink 10:40 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I should have named the article: THE LAWS OF MIDDLE NUMBERS Since it shows how the law of large numbers works before the limit.   Permalink 10:35 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@DrMichaelBonner If anyone want to read my review of #SkinintheGame, it’s here:   Permalink 10:11 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb In #Antifragile, you need strong evidence to override nature’s reaction. Nobody could back up why we ice injuries. Nobody,   Permalink 9:23 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@RustedOak The President’s budget was released today. Page 2 mentions colleges having #SkinInTheGame and student loan Risk Sharing just like @purduemitch has preached for years, @nntaleb for decades.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:50 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@CantHardyWait Here @nntaleb captures why he doesn’t have an assistant. “You want maximum free time, not maximum activity” Permalink 5:35 AM – 11 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Lawla l3arabé baddo ymshé kén alla3 min zamén. W-halla2 ma3 social media ma 3ad fi majél la2anno lss7f 3am tmut. Permalink 4:10 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This money belongs to the taxpayers. Public office is not an investment strategy.   Permalink 4:06 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb This money belongs to the taxpayers. Public office is not an investment strategy.   Permalink 4:06 PM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A bit a background about my twitter fights, as lying on a hammock becomes excruciatingly boring after 4-6 min. Permalink 6:55 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @WarrenBuffett #buffettman #marginofsafety #tailrisk #lifejacket Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Using an unreliable measure s.a. IQ on grounds that that’s “what best we got” and “science” proceeds that way” (it doesn’t) is accepting self labelled “bullshit” as scientific statements. And this Bullshit is a technical term in philosophy: the disrespect for Truth. Permalink 5:54 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Not my point. My point is that IQ doesn’t even measure that part of intelligence it is supposed to measure. Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2tana3t. Khalas! Case closed.   Baddna nmshé ma3 l wé2e3 Permalink 5:28 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb BTW this is the latest version on IQ   Permalink 5:18 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@PaulSkallas   Permalink 5:00 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am waiting for the dust to settle on the IQ and “g” thingy to address something called the Big Five and the “factor analysis”. It does make astrology look like an academic discipline. Permalink 4:57 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Philosophia ancilla theologiae Permalink 4:07 PM – 9 Mar 2019

@seyyedreza Ezekiel’s Tomb is located between Najaf and Karbala, Shia Islam’s holiest sites. Not only did Jews and Muslims worship side by side; their practices influenced each other. Scholars argue that Jewish practices at the tomb are based on Shia ziyara rituals.   Permalink 1:05 PM – 9 Mar 2019

IQ, Pinker, Jordan Peterson, Statistics, FRACTAL LOCALISM, Psychology, Tetlock, Caplan, Edward Said, Peter Francopan, Julia Galef, Tulsi Gabbard | Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books

@nntaleb N7na ldiaspora min faddél latiné. Bass l3alam juwwa bigakkro gheir shi la2annon t3awwado. Wkamén l Yiddish huwwé Ilmané maktub bil 7arf l 3brané nafsl abjadiyyé. Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@Extrachelle Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 3am fakkér ista3mél l7arf l3arabé lal né0-kn3ané. Lésh? La2anno fina shwayy shwayy nbay3éd 3annon, mush fard ddarbé –ma3 inno l7arf l latiné a2rab 3a 7akiyna. Wma ninsa 2nno l7arf l3arabé asslo fini2é kamen! Shu ra2ykon? Permalink 2:24 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Orthodoxy reposes on the notion that a) G-d had to become man to suffer and have skin in the game and, more centrally for Orthodoxy, b) Man can become G-d via a merger called theosis BECAUSE G-d had skin in the game: Αὐτὸς γὰρ ἐνηνθρώπησεν, ἵνα ἡμεῖς θεοποιηθῶμεν Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@ektrit In Orthodox Theology, humans are higher than angels and higher than all other creatures of God, precisely because God had “skin in the game” by having One Person of the Holy Trinity, Christ, assuming a PERFECT human body.   Permalink 2:14 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Different mafia: without a sense of loyalty, honor and the ironclad committment to deliver on their promises.   Permalink 2:13 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally, someone who (along with @DrMichaelBonner ) understood Skin in the Game. It makes humans superior to gods.   Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Cosa Nostra American branch, that is. Permalink 11:21 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The mafia has effectively ended.   Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@giles_fraser No one should be too big to fail. Not even God. ⁦@nntaleb⁩ Why God needs skin in the game – UnHerd   Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb …and I regretted it. It wasn’t paella at all, squid ink was dry… Permalink 3:53 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink paella in, of all places, Ralleigh-Durham. Permalink 4:55 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb And it has nothing to do with the video. Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@RustedOak Every Thursday, @senatorbraun presides over the Senate for 3 hours. Today he explicitly requested his copy of #SkinInTheGame (by @nntaleb) to read while in the big chair. Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Put me on the record: Jordan Peterson @jordanbpeterson is a charlatan.   Permalink 12:33 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends In my book on Politics, Localism I answer questions. Anything to suggest here?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:18 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I never never never use TED-style words such as “enrich lives”. Never. Fake quote   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “The only time he forgot about his short height was when he asked his accountant to read out his bank statement, something which he did multiple times a day.” (on Ehud Laniado who just passed during vanity surgery) Permalink 2:48 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@VaniPalomo Skin in the game (?) @nntaleb   Permalink 9:53 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Ended up publishing with an internet startup [2000 bubble!] that gave me ½ the royalties to accept my intransigence. Bookstores hardly carried their books. Without @Amazon you would have never heard of me. The internet startup went predictably bust. Got the rights back. Permalink 8:46 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Dear unpublished author: Took me 3 years to publish the book. Editors wanted to “improve” the style, remove parables/fictional char, add charts to make it “more professional”. ~99% of publishers said ~”this book will flop”…& gave reasons. I was stubborn and uncompromising.   Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Intergenerational risk management   Permalink 3:30 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@LPNational Libertarians don’t pander, we support all freedoms, all of the time. Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness is apparently a bit Lindy. The book is 18 years old cc:@paulskalas   Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Region Plot to see where lhs-rhs is negative (next) Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Every single fact in the NYT is true. Every bit of news is flase.   Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@LIHF_Living All the reasons why you should never take #statins, summed up neatly in one paragraph. From AF by @nntaleb .. Permalink 9:32 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Small workout du jour Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine Permalink 8:54 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists playing with regression…   Permalink 8:49 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Statistics is hard. Very hard.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Bien sur   Permalink 5:38 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@DellAnnaLuca The fact that (almost) all degrees have the same duration regardless of the complexity of the underlying field is the best evidence that education has been built around the universities’ needs, not the students’. Permalink 12:53 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@AndrewNoymer Born #OTD, 5 March 1938. David A. Freedman (d. 2008). A major figure in statistical science from the 1960s to the first decade of this century. And a wonderful PhD mentor to me. A major inspiration in my professional life. @philipbstark @nntaleb   Permalink 12:22 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Businessman: “Almost half my income comes from one client. I need to markedly increase my business”. Answer: “If you markedly increase your business, you will do well, but half your income will still come from one client. Another client”. #SelfSimilarity #PowerLaws Permalink 10:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@Jon__air They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns). – Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 7:43 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Two solutions so far, the second is more elegant. Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mathematical pushups dujour (Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine) Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychology has cranks propagandists like @SteveStuWill who: + Keep posting seemingly junk statistics that fail under scrutiny (e.g. IQ doesn’t correlate to income >40K- even at low IQ!) + Keep posing as arbiters of “pseudoscience — while psychology is largely pseudoscience.   Permalink 3:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:36 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Greeeeat news from Lebanon: these 5 women are the pilots for the Lebanese airline. (Though it is misnamed M-E Airlines rather than what it should be, East-Mediterranean Airlines or, best, “Med Air”). Permalink 1:01 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends, how about this probability-driven definition of complex systems before delving into FRACTAL LOCALISM? @yaneerbaryam @normonics Permalink 11:59 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nickgillespie Yes! @RandPaul is voting against Trump’s emergency declaration. What about @SenMikeLee? @tedcruz? @marcorubio? @CoryGardner? @BenSasse? @PatToomey? This is YOUR moment to stand up for constitutional government. Principle over party!   @EricBoehm87 @reason Permalink 11:45 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The only way you can “convince” rentseekers [bankers/academicobureaucrats] is showing them that it is in their own INTERESTS to change their mind. When against their interests, make it painful for them by 1) convincing OTHERS, 2) continuously exposing, 3) humiliating them Permalink 7:23 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@SimonDeDeo There is no such thing as a un-biased test for pattern recognition ability. (Literally, and for the same reason that Komolgorov complexity is uncomputable.) IQ tests the ability to know what the academic bureaucrat test thinks a pattern is.   Permalink 7:14 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am very dumb without #SkinintheGame Some people have an energy filter. Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A- As I keep saying there is too high variance in IQ tests FOR THE SAME person. To include it statistically it propagates the noise in other links IQ-real worls (already too noisy). B- @SimonDeDeo also finds elsewhere that you can RAISE non-nerdish people’s IQ by offering them $.   Permalink 4:08 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@amconmag Saudi and Emirati lobbyists really don’t want the war in Yemen to end:   Permalink 4:00 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Any bio of Seneca will be written by a library rat who writes biographies hence can’t get people of action. Just read Seneca.   Permalink 2:41 PM – 2 Mar 2019

@nntaleb We did not break the mafia by being “kind” and convincing. In the presence of rent seeking, you break by breaking.   Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Mar 2019

@TulsiGabbard Tulsi talks truth on wars #TULSI2020 Permalink 1:27 PM – 1 Mar 2019

@BarbarianCap surprised no one has cc:ed @nntaleb on this comment from a Med Turk finding out he is 80% Greek DNA   Permalink 9:11 PM – 28 Feb 2019

@threadreaderapp Hello, the unroll you asked for: Thread by @BenjaminGJW: “THREAD: Understanding Fractal Localism. Coined by @nntaleb, Fractal Localism is a solution Taleb gives to rising complex []”   Have a good day. Permalink 10:49 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@BenjaminGJW @nntaleb also asks questions more thoroughly in the article this thread is based on. If you’ve made it thus far, I recommend you read it, as it futher expands on this summary I have done.   Permalink 9:54 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@ggreenwald Does US media generally now acknowledge: * Michael Cohen was never in Prague; * Trump never directly told Cohen to lie to Congress; * Cohen has no knowledge of any blackmail material Kremlin has over Trump * Cohen knows of no collusion evidence Can we now agree on these facts? Permalink 4:18 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Mr Pinker, @sapinker, does revealing satires about my work except you from answering @DrCirillo and I on the technical flaws in your book & how you manage to misrepresent Richardson’s research? It is NOT going to go away.   Permalink 10:28 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@Marcellenassif Studying the conjugation of verb to Write (ktb) in Phoenician. Fascinating Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “Imperceptibly, time introduces and establishes abuses in the best institutions.” Necker. Which justifies an expiration time for institutions. Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Logically, since India has ~10 times the GDP of Pakistan, not counting the latter’s yuuuge financial difficulties, and, in the presence of nuclear capabilities, there should be no war. However…   Permalink 12:56 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:47 PM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb So I run away from CNN and their lunatic conspiracies and I am now having drinks with friends in Moscow… what! CNN! No place to hide. Permalink 11:34 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@salilstatistics Taleb: “..pple like @SteveStuWill try to hoodwink you w ‘evidence’ ‘statistics’ & ‘genetics'” And he poorly use Pearson’s correlation (Table 1), even as he confesses normality is violated: “3.4.. statistic is overly sensitive when observed variables are non-normally distributed” Permalink 6:05 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And this shows why you can no longer say “correlation” as it has NO meaning under nonlinearities.   Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This thread explains HOW pple like Steve Stewart-Williams try to hoodwink you with “evidence”, “statistics”, and “genetics”.   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t.   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t.   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb East Med/Anatolia/Zagros/Georgia: those who eat the same share the same genes, even when languages differ. Istanbul airport Permalink 2:33 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- For wages, IQ is often an entry hurdle (via proxies) and needs to be cleaned up for circularity. Yet…. above 60K there is NO correlation between wages and IQ! Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Zagorski 2007, she is citing. And that’s what it shows. “If you are not a total idiot, IQ does not correlate to how rich you will get” is a more appropriate title. Psychologists are both ignorants and frauds, not a good combination. Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No. This is IGNORANT. She is not citing the study but indirectly Zagorski 2017 “Do you have to be smart to be rich?” 1- It ignores noise (yuuuge here). For any practical purposes it is random. Next graph   Permalink 1:30 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@Decafquest O the   spams. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@hugowiz “In short, every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #quote #freedom #employees Permalink 8:15 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A summary of the total result: How counterintuitively with p>½ one is off the hook. Note the distribution takes only even values for odd steps and vice versa. @bilayerguy Permalink 5:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have no idea what they are talking about when they discuss “time preferences”. Their “biases” come from not getting the math. Psych = BS. Gabish? Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@JoshHochschild Anyone interested in: Subsidiarity Distributism Devolution Federalism Needs to read @nntaleb on “fractal localism”:   Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Snow in Northern Phoenicia this morning. Permalink 4:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Pamphlet on Fractal Localism is developing online….   Permalink 12:41 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Journalists like Nir Rosen should not be dictating norms to Syrians–they can’t get complexity, localism, interractions and drown in big words such as “inclusive”, “assimilation”,”racism”, etc.   Permalink 12:11 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MONTE CARLO verification. It works! Survival probability is indeed binary: Lindy above >½. Permalink 3:11 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 2:53 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is turning out that psychology is indeed the mother of all pseudosciences.   Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@cRRonycler For the nitpickers, mentally substitute ‘education’ with ‘education industry’, which is what Taleb means. Permalink 1:42 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Full of nonense: Nir Rosen recites BS by @josephinequinn abt “Phoenician Identity”, plots a racist Syrian identity vs the “inclusive” Arab identity from AUB 1860 historical fraud. Why isn’t a Mediterranean identity (for Syria-Turkey-Caucasus-Zagros) inclusive? He needs training.   Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb She does not get it. Education is NOT about learning math. Education is about employing tenured professors, administrators, fund raisers, and, most of all, enriching contractors.   Permalink 7:11 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb That some detenured (or so) academic became a truck driver may indicate some political prejudice; but it certainly proves that some increasingly larger sections of academia are just unskilled labor. It also proves that BS vending cannot be easily done in the private sector. Permalink 3:30 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reverse. All real life risk takers worry about tails/ergodicity. Unlike academixs. #skininthegame   Permalink 3:12 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The problem with fortune-cookie-brained @Ptetlock is insisting on spreading the wrong notion of #SKininthegame to fit his schtick: it is not about incentives. To repeat: it is a selection mechanism, filtering, something called Darwinian. @bryan_caplan   Permalink 1:28 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Quick answer using the Normal Approximation which effectively captures long term behavior & limits: simply (unless I made an error somewhere), with a probability of success >½, you can move away from the barrier and never hit (Lindy). Permalink 4:14 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the game is, simply, filtering.   Permalink 2:36 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason this problem is beautiful because, while the answer can be instant (via handwaving), time to ruin is exactly the Lindy problem. Will post a Lindy solution. For the moment, look up the reflection principle (see Dynamic Heding) or   Permalink 8:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@ektrit I owe to Taleb’s flaneuring for discovering that practical Orthodoxy had become just pagan style following of rituals. 25 years practising orthodox, trained by Athos monks and US missionaries, I noticed that only 5 years ago when I read Taleb. I was shocked. Permalink 8:18 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@cryptofun69 The Russian roulette and upside vs downside sounds straight from @nntaleb   Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR / GEOMETRY You can express ALL nonlinear functions (for machine learning and other applications) using summs of call options, calibrated via the arc tangent of the slope. Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@PhiloCrocodile Up to the age of 25, you read wholesale & in a mercenary way, to “acquire” a possession, to build a “literary culture”… After 25, you lose your hang-up and start re-reading –and it is precisely what you re-read that reveals your literary soul, what you like. – @nntaleb Permalink 1:58 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “With novelists, names and dates are wrong, the rest is true. With historians, names and dates are correct, the rest is false.”   Permalink 1:01 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@dwnhogendoorn Remember: academics are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Feb 2019

@ArgaizR Just like IQ. @nntaleb   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@nntaleb I despise Edward Said Permalink 1:34 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@oldlevantine Sounds like those who say “never mind that #EdwardSaid was a malignant charlatan,” that “his #Orientalism was a sordid work of fakeries, distortions, omissions and fabrications.. What matters is that he instigated a debate on the West’s pernicious renderings of the East.” Really?   Permalink 6:12 PM – 21 Feb 2019

@mikeandallie retweeting this so that I can come back to what I’m guessing will be a really interesting thread, and also because studying higher dimensional cubes is actually a really fun project for kids!   Permalink 11:20 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Peter Francopan ⁦@peterfrankopan⁩ in the British Museum with his son. Peter can smell the silk roads across history. Permalink 9:07 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can change the mind of someone who says “no”; never the minds of those who say nothing. Permalink 4:44 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@sergisoliva «Si el mundo se quedara sin fontaneros, los echaríamos de menos de inmediato. Pero si los presuntos expertos [burócratas, politólogos, etc.] desaparecieran, nadie les echaría de menos… salvo sus madres.» @nntaleb en @Papel_EM   @EdicionesPaidos Permalink 1:25 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@estimadapaloma «Si desaparecieran los expertos, sólo los echarían de menos sus madres». Nassim Nicholas Taleb [@nntaleb] entrevistado por @gonzalosuarez Vía @Elmundo #JugarselaPiel @EdicionesPaidos   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:14 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Illuminated books are #Lindy. The main motivation to write a math book (and start a math publishing house to avoid writing on other people’s terms) is to do illuminated books! Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 He is telling the truth in this case. Btw, I am not not have been a fan of Putin, but when you here the truth, acknowledge it.   Permalink 3:55 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos Permalink 3:17 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Being a good “forecaster” is meaningless in getting a good P/L. Where I show that 50 y of “expert calibration” research in psychology (decision th) is BS. Like most psychology (IQ< mental biases, Nudgeboy @Richard_Thaler’s work…) Followup on @juliagalef ‘s poll #Skininthegame Permalink 3:12 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I learned that you can be interviewed by the New York Times for your obituary. This is thorough fact checking. Permalink 7:40 AM – 19 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Was it Stefan Molyneux? Did he mention something about IQ?   Permalink 5:52 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@garyruskin With #Monsanto and #Glyphosate on the Run, @AAAS Revokes Award to Scientists Whose Studies Led to Ban on Weedkiller in Sri Lanka and Other Countries. Via @CorpCrimeReport   “Is corporate corruption eating at the heart of American science?” Permalink 12:20 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Οι ιδέες στο βιβλίο SKIN IN THE GAME εκφράζονται σε blurbs Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Darb3shtar είναι ένα προάστιο του Amioun. Τα σταφύλια και το κρασί ανήκουν στο Amioun! Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote.   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote.   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Hayek #individuality #equality Permalink 5:39 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@RalphNader See: The Democratic National Committee has voted down a ban on corporate PAC donations   via @voxdotcom Permalink 3:42 PM – 17 Feb 2019

@FattestFatTony “It’s much easier to macro BS than it is to micro BS.” -@nntaleb Translation: Ya can’t fool the neighborhood… #localism   Permalink 8:43 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb @dottorpax gave me the idea that elite French cuisine was a top-down concept for the King, the court and the aristocracy; not so in Italy.   Permalink 8:28 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, no, no, no, no !!! Economic decentralization ≠ military decentralization, something the Ottomans (and today’s Chinese) understood very, very well. Aleppo & Homs were 10 times richer (sic) than today (relative to Western Europe) before the Baath centralization policies.   Permalink 7:08 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Someone observed about #RWRI that it’s the only lecture she has attended with 3-6 instructors sitting upfront like a governing committee, in continuous disputation. I managed to get my points across by sending Raphael on fake emergencies to get him out of the room.   Permalink 6:57 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of “b**llshitter” isn’t someone called “truthful” but someone called “arrogant”. Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It seems that the sophistication of French cuisine arose from the need to mask the lack of freshness of the ingredients –much as perfume came from the need to compensate for bad hygiene. In contrast, Italian and East Med cuisines make salient the freshness of the ingredients. Permalink 5:03 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@GrayConnolly Tucker Carlson’s piece on America’s “war peddlers” is excellent   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb In the Bronx, if a restrnt has an Italian name (like Angelo’s, Carlo’s) odds it is operated by Albanians. Italian restrnts are likely to be called “Jim’s steakhouse”… Restrnts called “Lebanese” are owned by Syrians. Real Lebanese go by “Mediterranean” or “Phoenician” cuisine. Permalink 5:58 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hope this becomes a trend… A change in the narrative as the electorate doesn’t like war.   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The future #RWRI location; the classroom has a direct view of the famous sidewalk where Paul Castellano was wacked by John Gotti’s operative Sammy The Bull. Permalink 10:14 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My book puts some rigor behind the horrible @juliagalef flaw in rankings of “experts” based on “calibration” & thinking that one can get expectation error VIA probability error. Aside from the fact that, to add insult to injury, she put me in the sale list as @SamHarrisOrg . Permalink 7:21 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The key is that estimation errors for probabilities are ALWAYS thin- tailed even for Fat-tailed variables. Those for expectation will be fat tailed for fat tailed variables. Which is why @juliagalef rankings of “experts” is an insult to both probability and the real world. Permalink 7:00 PM – 15 Feb 2019

@vtchakarova In life, you’re either the borrower or borrowee; the creditor or creditee; the f*cker or the f*ckee. Make sure that you’re not the f*ckee by being convex & eliminating the risk of ruin. – @nntaleb #RWRI 10, Day 5 Permalink 10:51 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri Finally convinced someone with #SkinInTheGame to buy #Bitcoin…socks. #RWRI 10. Permalink 9:57 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@101010Lund If you can be squeezed, assume you will be. It’s only a matter of time. #RWRI Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@julioccneto “machine learning discovered that you can decompose a payoff with options of different strikes”. Spectacular brainstorming session with @nntaleb at #RWRI 10 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is “more likely to go up”, yet is very heavily short. Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter. Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space. Survival=calibration. Permalink 6:00 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BS vendor is BS vendor whether you agree or not “on this point”   Permalink 5:56 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Today #RWRI 10, we discuss: How the “calibration” ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong 1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won’t survive, option traders can be right ~1% #ergodicity Permalink 5:55 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Correction: shd be “under absence of correlation” (uncorrelated vs independent) Permalink 5:47 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri You can’t trust regulation as post-retirement bureaucrats get highly paid jobs in the same industry who you helped while in Govt. @nntaleb #RWRI 10 #ImplicitBribe Permalink 1:25 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The message is that It is a very very bad idea to be both evil and stupid.   Permalink 10:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Ilhan Omar Smacks Down Elliott Abrams In Front Of Everybody   Permalink 10:03 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 @normonics @nntaleb As I said, she is becoming more interesting and pay attention to who attacks her…   Permalink 9:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@zerohedge Every Queens real estate broker right now Permalink 8:52 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb DAY 4 RWRI 10 Andrea Fontanari asking: Where is the tail? #RWRI Permalink 6:28 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This is EXACTLY why we shd never conflate independence and zero correlation. Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@keithbensons Unless you were a sucker, but then recovered from being a sucker(iatrogenics), that’s an even yuuuuger edge. “Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:55 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Not being a sucker is also a yuuuuuge edge.   Permalink 3:56 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Something I learned this morning: A joint fat-tailed distribution under independence is NOT a product of densities –to preserve ellipticality and “stability” of the Stable Distribution. Permalink 3:50 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@normonics I never fail to regret spending time and energy engaging the “verbagiastic” (h/t @nntaleb for the term) Permalink 12:53 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI-10: A French mathematician trying to measure the tape using the room.   Permalink 12:15 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A fight erupted at RWRI-10. Raphael Douady measuring in “meters”. “This is America, we don’t use the f*** metric system”.   Permalink 11:08 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@sergesapiens #RWRI #10 with @nntaleb follows a power law: if you assume that the next day can’t get better you’re likely to be surprised! Permalink 10:38 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI 10 (day 3) Arié Haziza showing how convex costs of catastrophes are: there is a severe nonlinearity as you pay higher and higher prices for materials during reconstruction. Twice the severity => 2.5-4 times the economic costs. Permalink 8:42 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer, a comment on a paper by Maestro Spyros Makridakis @spyrosmakrid Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@mhuckabee1 New personal best today: 275 lbs deadlift x 3 reps. I’ll hit 300 soon. @nntaleb you inspired me! Permalink 4:36 PM – 12 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From “Lebanon” to “Phoenicia”…   Permalink 11:34 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@TheSuperbubble “commerce brings peace” — @nntaleb   Permalink 4:37 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@paulportesi Lindy. Physical books are engrained with the spirit of life when one holds them. Antilibrary too. @nntaleb 92 percent of students prefer print books, new study shows   Permalink 4:38 PM – 11 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #IQ @charlesmurray #hayek Permalink 7:37 AM – 11 Feb 2019

@TheCalmPeople Quote of the day “my mood, my sadness my bouts of anxiety, are a second source of intelligence – perhaps even the first source.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb #Stress #ConflictManagement #AngerManagement #StressManagement #Happiness #MentalHealthMatters Permalink 12:40 PM – 10 Feb 2019

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!:   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019