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IQ, Pinker, Jordan Peterson, Statistics, FRACTAL LOCALISM, Psychology, Tetlock, Caplan, Edward Said, Peter Francopan, Julia Galef, Tulsi Gabbard | Twitter

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books

@nntaleb N7na ldiaspora min faddél latiné. Bass l3alam juwwa bigakkro gheir shi la2annon t3awwado. Wkamén l Yiddish huwwé Ilmané maktub bil 7arf l 3brané nafsl abjadiyyé. Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/gRJ8QYIrxP Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 3am fakkér ista3mél l7arf l3arabé lal né0-kn3ané. Lésh? La2anno fina shwayy shwayy nbay3éd 3annon, mush fard ddarbé –ma3 inno l7arf l latiné a2rab 3a 7akiyna. Wma ninsa 2nno l7arf l3arabé asslo fini2é kamen! Shu ra2ykon? Permalink 2:24 AM – 9 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Orthodoxy reposes on the notion that a) G-d had to become man to suffer and have skin in the game and, more centrally for Orthodoxy, b) Man can become G-d via a merger called theosis BECAUSE G-d had skin in the game: Αὐτὸς γὰρ ἐνηνθρώπησεν, ἵνα ἡμεῖς θεοποιηθῶμεν Permalink 2:52 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@ektrit In Orthodox Theology, humans are higher than angels and higher than all other creatures of God, precisely because God had “skin in the game” by having One Person of the Holy Trinity, Christ, assuming a PERFECT human body. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1104141492627611655   Permalink 2:14 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Different mafia: without a sense of loyalty, honor and the ironclad committment to deliver on their promises. https://twitter.com/johnnysportcoat/status/1104140929978589189?s=21   Permalink 2:13 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Finally, someone who (along with @DrMichaelBonner ) understood Skin in the Game. It makes humans superior to gods. https://twitter.com/giles_fraser/status/1104005211155283968   Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The Cosa Nostra American branch, that is. Permalink 11:21 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The mafia has effectively ended. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-metro-mob-boss-carmine-persico-dies-in-prison-20190307-story.html   Permalink 11:04 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@giles_fraser No one should be too big to fail. Not even God. ⁦@nntaleb⁩ Why God needs skin in the game – UnHerd https://unherd.com/2019/03/why-god-needs-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb …and I regretted it. It wasn’t paella at all, squid ink was dry… Permalink 3:53 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com/2DnjVO5ITq Permalink 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink paella in, of all places, Ralleigh-Durham. pic.twitter.com/DQK1DcwZeB Permalink 4:55 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb And it has nothing to do with the video. Permalink 2:52 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@RustedOak Every Thursday, @senatorbraun presides over the Senate for 3 hours. Today he explicitly requested his copy of #SkinInTheGame (by @nntaleb) to read while in the big chair. pic.twitter.com/xKctNRqLyh Permalink 1:01 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Put me on the record: Jordan Peterson @jordanbpeterson is a charlatan. https://twitter.com/nufflez/status/1103735657271345158   Permalink 12:33 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends In my book on Politics, Localism I answer questions. Anything to suggest here? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ”>  pic.twitter.com/j0v3RM5GjZ Permalink 12:18 PM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I never never never use TED-style words such as “enrich lives”. Never. Fake quote https://twitter.com/gbutrous/status/1103582034654625793   Permalink 9:39 AM – 7 Mar 2019

@nntaleb “The only time he forgot about his short height was when he asked his accountant to read out his bank statement, something which he did multiple times a day.” (on Ehud Laniado who just passed during vanity surgery) Permalink 2:48 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM pic.twitter.com/ogO0MC4Nmi Permalink 1:19 PM – 6 Mar 2019

@VaniPalomo Skin in the game (?) @nntaleb https://twitter.com/jfcarpio/status/1103142481665892352   Permalink 9:53 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb 2) Ended up publishing with an internet startup [2000 bubble!] that gave me ½ the royalties to accept my intransigence. Bookstores hardly carried their books. Without @Amazon you would have never heard of me. The internet startup went predictably bust. Got the rights back. Permalink 8:46 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Dear unpublished author: Took me 3 years to publish the book. Editors wanted to “improve” the style, remove parables/fictional char, add charts to make it “more professional”. ~99% of publishers said ~”this book will flop”…& gave reasons. I was stubborn and uncompromising. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103044166169300994   Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Intergenerational risk management https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103073842984034304   Permalink 3:30 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@LPNational Libertarians don’t pander, we support all freedoms, all of the time. pic.twitter.com/GR9IU4HPrZ Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness is apparently a bit Lindy. The book is 18 years old cc:@paulskalas http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/RSMXMuiPf5 Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Region Plot to see where lhs-rhs is negative (next) pic.twitter.com/9BjW4uSRwn Permalink 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Every single fact in the NYT is true. Every bit of news is flase. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099232862090465281   Permalink 10:33 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@LIHF_Living All the reasons why you should never take #statins, summed up neatly in one paragraph. From AF by @nntaleb .. pic.twitter.com/sm5m4h8KED Permalink 9:32 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Small workout du jour Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine pic.twitter.com/5FIq6HiMku Permalink 8:54 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists playing with regression… https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1102973930191679500   Permalink 8:49 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Statistics is hard. Very hard. https://twitter.com/KetoAurelius/status/1101848406803312640   Permalink 6:48 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Bien sur http://disq.us/t/3c9yif9   Permalink 5:38 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@DellAnnaLuca The fact that (almost) all degrees have the same duration regardless of the complexity of the underlying field is the best evidence that education has been built around the universities’ needs, not the students’. Permalink 12:53 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@AndrewNoymer Born #OTD, 5 March 1938. David A. Freedman (d. 2008). A major figure in statistical science from the 1960s to the first decade of this century. And a wonderful PhD mentor to me. A major inspiration in my professional life. @philipbstark @nntaleb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_A._Freedman   Permalink 12:22 AM – 5 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Businessman: “Almost half my income comes from one client. I need to markedly increase my business”. Answer: “If you markedly increase your business, you will do well, but half your income will still come from one client. Another client”. #SelfSimilarity #PowerLaws Permalink 10:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@Jon__air They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns). – Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 7:43 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Two solutions so far, the second is more elegant. pic.twitter.com/KGL4vVyMre Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zy2TsepKCP Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Mathematical pushups dujour (Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine) pic.twitter.com/90eOU5LQzU Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Psychology has cranks propagandists like @SteveStuWill who: + Keep posting seemingly junk statistics that fail under scrutiny (e.g. IQ doesn’t correlate to income >40K- even at low IQ!) + Keep posing as arbiters of “pseudoscience — while psychology is largely pseudoscience. https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1102432917714685952   Permalink 3:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:36 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Greeeeat news from Lebanon: these 5 women are the pilots for the Lebanese airline. (Though it is misnamed M-E Airlines rather than what it should be, East-Mediterranean Airlines or, best, “Med Air”). pic.twitter.com/2ju0rsUDeG Permalink 1:01 PM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Friends, how about this probability-driven definition of complex systems before delving into FRACTAL LOCALISM? @yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com/X5qyOHop70 Permalink 11:59 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nickgillespie Yes! @RandPaul is voting against Trump’s emergency declaration. What about @SenMikeLee? @tedcruz? @marcorubio? @CoryGardner? @BenSasse? @PatToomey? This is YOUR moment to stand up for constitutional government. Principle over party! http://reason.com/blog/2019/03/03/rand-paul-will-vote-against-trump-emerge   @EricBoehm87 @reason Permalink 11:45 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb The only way you can “convince” rentseekers [bankers/academicobureaucrats] is showing them that it is in their own INTERESTS to change their mind. When against their interests, make it painful for them by 1) convincing OTHERS, 2) continuously exposing, 3) humiliating them Permalink 7:23 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@SimonDeDeo There is no such thing as a un-biased test for pattern recognition ability. (Literally, and for the same reason that Komolgorov complexity is uncomputable.) IQ tests the ability to know what the academic bureaucrat test thinks a pattern is. https://twitter.com/RustedOak/status/1102220743671271427   Permalink 7:14 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb I am very dumb without #SkinintheGame Some people have an energy filter. pic.twitter.com/IqY74S9nvh Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb A- As I keep saying there is too high variance in IQ tests FOR THE SAME person. To include it statistically it propagates the noise in other links IQ-real worls (already too noisy). B- @SimonDeDeo also finds elsewhere that you can RAISE non-nerdish people’s IQ by offering them $. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1101889756139540481   Permalink 4:08 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@amconmag Saudi and Emirati lobbyists really don’t want the war in Yemen to end: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/can-these-senators-prevail-over-uae-saudi-lobby-for-war/   Permalink 4:00 AM – 3 Mar 2019

@nntaleb Any bio of Seneca will be written by a library rat who writes biographies hence can’t get people of action. Just read Seneca. https://twitter.com/ckard001/status/1101940887893016576   Permalink 2:41 PM – 2 Mar 2019

@nntaleb We did not break the mafia by being “kind” and convincing. In the presence of rent seeking, you break by breaking. https://twitter.com/brainpicker/status/1101905770466234368   Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Mar 2019

@TulsiGabbard Tulsi talks truth on wars #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com/3ad7VJySZb Permalink 1:27 PM – 1 Mar 2019

@BarbarianCap surprised no one has cc:ed @nntaleb on this comment from a Med Turk finding out he is 80% Greek DNA https://twitter.com/CursedBalkanYT/status/1100117821420437504   Permalink 9:11 PM – 28 Feb 2019

@threadreaderapp Hello, the unroll you asked for: Thread by @BenjaminGJW: “THREAD: Understanding Fractal Localism. Coined by @nntaleb, Fractal Localism is a solution Taleb gives to rising complex []” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1101173932919525382.html   Have a good day. Permalink 10:49 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@BenjaminGJW @nntaleb also asks questions more thoroughly in the article this thread is based on. If you’ve made it thus far, I recommend you read it, as it futher expands on this summary I have done. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 9:54 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@ggreenwald Does US media generally now acknowledge: * Michael Cohen was never in Prague; * Trump never directly told Cohen to lie to Congress; * Cohen has no knowledge of any blackmail material Kremlin has over Trump * Cohen knows of no collusion evidence Can we now agree on these facts? Permalink 4:18 AM – 28 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Mr Pinker, @sapinker, does revealing satires about my work except you from answering @DrCirillo and I on the technical flaws in your book & how you manage to misrepresent Richardson’s research? It is NOT going to go away. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1100775802952708097   Permalink 10:28 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@Marcellenassif Studying the conjugation of verb to Write (ktb) in Phoenician. Fascinating pic.twitter.com/Ix3iPhscOr Permalink 8:07 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “Imperceptibly, time introduces and establishes abuses in the best institutions.” Necker. Which justifies an expiration time for institutions. pic.twitter.com/eLNPaBGMsu Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Logically, since India has ~10 times the GDP of Pakistan, not counting the latter’s yuuuge financial difficulties, and, in the presence of nuclear capabilities, there should be no war. However… https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/1100658657765683200   Permalink 12:56 AM – 27 Feb 2019

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:47 PM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb So I run away from CNN and their lunatic conspiracies and I am now having drinks with friends in Moscow… what! CNN! No place to hide. pic.twitter.com/ukylOCImcz Permalink 11:34 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@salilstatistics Taleb: “..pple like @SteveStuWill try to hoodwink you w ‘evidence’ ‘statistics’ & ‘genetics'” And he poorly use Pearson’s correlation (Table 1), even as he confesses normality is violated: “3.4.. statistic is overly sensitive when observed variables are non-normally distributed” Permalink 6:05 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb And this shows why you can no longer say “correlation” as it has NO meaning under nonlinearities. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1090626453018955776   Permalink 5:50 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This thread explains HOW pple like Steve Stewart-Williams try to hoodwink you with “evidence”, “statistics”, and “genetics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1100149502500061185   Permalink 5:48 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, it doesn’t. https://twitter.com/stevestuwill/status/1099798312469684224   Permalink 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb East Med/Anatolia/Zagros/Georgia: those who eat the same share the same genes, even when languages differ. Istanbul airport pic.twitter.com/FpbKMgWPhu Permalink 2:33 AM – 26 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 3- For wages, IQ is often an entry hurdle (via proxies) and needs to be cleaned up for circularity. Yet…. above 60K there is NO correlation between wages and IQ! pic.twitter.com/kDqgtBySVe Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2- Zagorski 2007, she is citing. And that’s what it shows. “If you are not a total idiot, IQ does not correlate to how rich you will get” is a more appropriate title. Psychologists are both ignorants and frauds, not a good combination. pic.twitter.com/WNROEKbU4s Permalink 1:32 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No. This is IGNORANT. She is not citing the study but indirectly Zagorski 2017 “Do you have to be smart to be rich?” 1- It ignores noise (yuuuge here). For any practical purposes it is random. Next graph https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1099914389312794625   Permalink 1:30 PM – 25 Feb 2019

@Decafquest O the http://academia.edu   spams. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK”>  pic.twitter.com/aBU1NhhwzK Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@hugowiz “In short, every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #quote #freedom #employees pic.twitter.com/xaggbhP14e Permalink 8:15 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A summary of the total result: How counterintuitively with p>½ one is off the hook. Note the distribution takes only even values for odd steps and vice versa. @bilayerguy pic.twitter.com/rq8RIamQ4Z Permalink 5:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists have no idea what they are talking about when they discuss “time preferences”. Their “biases” come from not getting the math. Psych = BS. Gabish? pic.twitter.com/w3N4TC3eWn Permalink 5:44 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@JoshHochschild Anyone interested in: Subsidiarity Distributism Devolution Federalism Needs to read @nntaleb on “fractal localism”: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1099952453011816450   Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Snow in Northern Phoenicia this morning. pic.twitter.com/nsFArLZw55 Permalink 4:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Pamphlet on Fractal Localism is developing online…. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity   Permalink 12:41 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Journalists like Nir Rosen should not be dictating norms to Syrians–they can’t get complexity, localism, interractions and drown in big words such as “inclusive”, “assimilation”,”racism”, etc. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1071383862134095874   Permalink 12:11 AM – 25 Feb 2019

@nntaleb MONTE CARLO verification. It works! Survival probability is indeed binary: Lindy above >½. pic.twitter.com/PftGdSEPsn Permalink 3:11 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 2:53 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It is turning out that psychology is indeed the mother of all pseudosciences. https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1099791858572713984   Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@cRRonycler For the nitpickers, mentally substitute ‘education’ with ‘education industry’, which is what Taleb means. Permalink 1:42 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Full of nonense: Nir Rosen recites BS by @josephinequinn abt “Phoenician Identity”, plots a racist Syrian identity vs the “inclusive” Arab identity from AUB 1860 historical fraud. Why isn’t a Mediterranean identity (for Syria-Turkey-Caucasus-Zagros) inclusive? He needs training. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1098222665272360960   Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb She does not get it. Education is NOT about learning math. Education is about employing tenured professors, administrators, fund raisers, and, most of all, enriching contractors. https://twitter.com/PardesSeleh/status/1098682386802532352   Permalink 7:11 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb That some detenured (or so) academic became a truck driver may indicate some political prejudice; but it certainly proves that some increasingly larger sections of academia are just unskilled labor. It also proves that BS vending cannot be easily done in the private sector. Permalink 3:30 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reverse. All real life risk takers worry about tails/ergodicity. Unlike academixs. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/davopp/status/1099621494299258880   Permalink 3:12 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The problem with fortune-cookie-brained @Ptetlock is insisting on spreading the wrong notion of #SKininthegame to fit his schtick: it is not about incentives. To repeat: it is a selection mechanism, filtering, something called Darwinian. @bryan_caplan https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1098604763707572225   Permalink 1:28 AM – 24 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/qMbEr7cmX2 Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Quick answer using the Normal Approximation which effectively captures long term behavior & limits: simply (unless I made an error somewhere), with a probability of success >½, you can move away from the barrier and never hit (Lindy). pic.twitter.com/cwexzi5Dge Permalink 4:14 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Skin in the game is, simply, filtering. https://twitter.com/sebpeekster/status/1099429467787808769   Permalink 2:36 PM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The reason this problem is beautiful because, while the answer can be instant (via handwaving), time to ruin is exactly the Lindy problem. Will post a Lindy solution. For the moment, look up the reflection principle (see Dynamic Heding) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflection_principle_(Wiener_process)   https://twitter.com/bilayerguy/status/1098926919402311680   Permalink 8:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@ektrit I owe to Taleb’s flaneuring for discovering that practical Orthodoxy had become just pagan style following of rituals. 25 years practising orthodox, trained by Athos monks and US missionaries, I noticed that only 5 years ago when I read Taleb. I was shocked. Permalink 8:18 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@cryptofun69 The Russian roulette and upside vs downside sounds straight from @nntaleb https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1099306171960303617   Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR / GEOMETRY You can express ALL nonlinear functions (for machine learning and other applications) using summs of call options, calibrated via the arc tangent of the slope. pic.twitter.com/PIvkyuwi4z Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@PhiloCrocodile Up to the age of 25, you read wholesale & in a mercenary way, to “acquire” a possession, to build a “literary culture”… After 25, you lose your hang-up and start re-reading –and it is precisely what you re-read that reveals your literary soul, what you like. – @nntaleb Permalink 1:58 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@nntaleb “With novelists, names and dates are wrong, the rest is true. With historians, names and dates are correct, the rest is false.” https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books   Permalink 1:01 AM – 23 Feb 2019

@dwnhogendoorn Remember: academics are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 1:47 PM – 22 Feb 2019

@ArgaizR Just like IQ. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/mededpgh/status/1098964433882284032   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@nntaleb I despise Edward Said Permalink 1:34 AM – 22 Feb 2019

@oldlevantine Sounds like those who say “never mind that #EdwardSaid was a malignant charlatan,” that “his #Orientalism was a sordid work of fakeries, distortions, omissions and fabrications.. What matters is that he instigated a debate on the West’s pernicious renderings of the East.” Really? https://twitter.com/Jeff_Jacoby/status/1098763817776021506   Permalink 6:12 PM – 21 Feb 2019

@mikeandallie retweeting this so that I can come back to what I’m guessing will be a really interesting thread, and also because studying higher dimensional cubes is actually a really fun project for kids! https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1098663374412427264   Permalink 11:20 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Peter Francopan ⁦@peterfrankopan⁩ in the British Museum with his son. Peter can smell the silk roads across history. pic.twitter.com/qDIe5WoRfU Permalink 9:07 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb You can change the mind of someone who says “no”; never the minds of those who say nothing. Permalink 4:44 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@sergisoliva «Si el mundo se quedara sin fontaneros, los echaríamos de menos de inmediato. Pero si los presuntos expertos [burócratas, politólogos, etc.] desaparecieran, nadie les echaría de menos… salvo sus madres.» @nntaleb en @Papel_EM https://www.elmundo.es/papel/lideres/2019/02/21/5c6af6f721efa0fb378b46ea.html   @EdicionesPaidos Permalink 1:25 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@estimadapaloma «Si desaparecieran los expertos, sólo los echarían de menos sus madres». Nassim Nicholas Taleb [@nntaleb] entrevistado por @gonzalosuarez Vía @Elmundo #JugarselaPiel @EdicionesPaidos http://ow.ly/xv5v30nMqfg   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM”>  pic.twitter.com/EE0C5N4ymM Permalink 1:14 AM – 21 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Illuminated books are #Lindy. The main motivation to write a math book (and start a math publishing house to avoid writing on other people’s terms) is to do illuminated books! pic.twitter.com/AQtsb7xxrp Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 He is telling the truth in this case. Btw, I am not not have been a fan of Putin, but when you here the truth, acknowledge it. https://twitter.com/ml_maria_/status/1098180561275940866   Permalink 3:55 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com/3K7q4gOUgz Permalink 3:17 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Being a good “forecaster” is meaningless in getting a good P/L. Where I show that 50 y of “expert calibration” research in psychology (decision th) is BS. Like most psychology (IQ< mental biases, Nudgeboy @Richard_Thaler’s work…) Followup on @juliagalef ‘s poll #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/8taEmcrWxM Permalink 3:12 AM – 20 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Where I learned that you can be interviewed by the New York Times for your obituary. This is thorough fact checking. pic.twitter.com/FBjn0TsXIG Permalink 7:40 AM – 19 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Was it Stefan Molyneux? Did he mention something about IQ? https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1097602461639081986   Permalink 5:52 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@garyruskin With #Monsanto and #Glyphosate on the Run, @AAAS Revokes Award to Scientists Whose Studies Led to Ban on Weedkiller in Sri Lanka and Other Countries. Via @CorpCrimeReport http://bit.ly/2X99r30   “Is corporate corruption eating at the heart of American science?” Permalink 12:20 PM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Οι ιδέες στο βιβλίο SKIN IN THE GAME εκφράζονται σε blurbs pic.twitter.com/2mtefX4egt Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Darb3shtar είναι ένα προάστιο του Amioun. Τα σταφύλια και το κρασί ανήκουν στο Amioun! Permalink 11:23 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1097490200043945985   Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Hayek #individuality #equality pic.twitter.com/j3YVRDKPMK Permalink 5:39 AM – 18 Feb 2019

@RalphNader See: The Democratic National Committee has voted down a ban on corporate PAC donations https://www.vox.com/2019/2/16/18226344/democratic-national-committee-corporate-pac-donations-tom-perez   via @voxdotcom Permalink 3:42 PM – 17 Feb 2019

@FattestFatTony “It’s much easier to macro BS than it is to micro BS.” -@nntaleb Translation: Ya can’t fool the neighborhood… #localism https://twitter.com/SusanGroff1/status/1097172965962051584   Permalink 8:43 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb @dottorpax gave me the idea that elite French cuisine was a top-down concept for the King, the court and the aristocracy; not so in Italy. https://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/1097162157102452736   Permalink 8:28 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb No, no, no, no, no !!! Economic decentralization ≠ military decentralization, something the Ottomans (and today’s Chinese) understood very, very well. Aleppo & Homs were 10 times richer (sic) than today (relative to Western Europe) before the Baath centralization policies. https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1097126545049686016   Permalink 7:08 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Someone observed about #RWRI that it’s the only lecture she has attended with 3-6 instructors sitting upfront like a governing committee, in continuous disputation. I managed to get my points across by sending Raphael on fake emergencies to get him out of the room. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1097144536646762496   Permalink 6:57 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The opposite of “b**llshitter” isn’t someone called “truthful” but someone called “arrogant”. Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb It seems that the sophistication of French cuisine arose from the need to mask the lack of freshness of the ingredients –much as perfume came from the need to compensate for bad hygiene. In contrast, Italian and East Med cuisines make salient the freshness of the ingredients. Permalink 5:03 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@GrayConnolly Tucker Carlson’s piece on America’s “war peddlers” is excellent https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-are-these-professional-war-peddlers-still-around-tucker-carlson-max-boot-bill-kristol/   Permalink 3:13 AM – 17 Feb 2019

@nntaleb In the Bronx, if a restrnt has an Italian name (like Angelo’s, Carlo’s) odds it is operated by Albanians. Italian restrnts are likely to be called “Jim’s steakhouse”… Restrnts called “Lebanese” are owned by Syrians. Real Lebanese go by “Mediterranean” or “Phoenician” cuisine. Permalink 5:58 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Hope this becomes a trend… A change in the narrative as the electorate doesn’t like war. https://twitter.com/da_stockman/status/1096924240215867392   Permalink 4:20 PM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The future #RWRI location; the classroom has a direct view of the famous sidewalk where Paul Castellano was wacked by John Gotti’s operative Sammy The Bull. pic.twitter.com/b7o0ZcW47A Permalink 10:14 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb My book puts some rigor behind the horrible @juliagalef flaw in rankings of “experts” based on “calibration” & thinking that one can get expectation error VIA probability error. Aside from the fact that, to add insult to injury, she put me in the sale list as @SamHarrisOrg . pic.twitter.com/0kAbEHd3wT Permalink 7:21 AM – 16 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The key is that estimation errors for probabilities are ALWAYS thin- tailed even for Fat-tailed variables. Those for expectation will be fat tailed for fat tailed variables. Which is why @juliagalef rankings of “experts” is an insult to both probability and the real world. Permalink 7:00 PM – 15 Feb 2019

@vtchakarova In life, you’re either the borrower or borrowee; the creditor or creditee; the f*cker or the f*ckee. Make sure that you’re not the f*ckee by being convex & eliminating the risk of ruin. – @nntaleb #RWRI 10, Day 5 Permalink 10:51 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri Finally convinced someone with #SkinInTheGame to buy #Bitcoin…socks. #RWRI 10. pic.twitter.com/MgKUyVXdmN Permalink 9:57 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@101010Lund If you can be squeezed, assume you will be. It’s only a matter of time. #RWRI Permalink 9:24 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@julioccneto “machine learning discovered that you can decompose a payoff with options of different strikes”. Spectacular brainstorming session with @nntaleb at #RWRI 10 Permalink 7:11 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is “more likely to go up”, yet is very heavily short. Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb 2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter. Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space. Survival=calibration. Permalink 6:00 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb BS vendor is BS vendor whether you agree or not “on this point” https://twitter.com/EmmettBeech/status/1096406989414879232   Permalink 5:56 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Today #RWRI 10, we discuss: How the “calibration” ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong 1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won’t survive, option traders can be right ~1% #ergodicity Permalink 5:55 AM – 15 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Correction: shd be “under absence of correlation” (uncorrelated vs independent) Permalink 5:47 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@ashokatluri You can’t trust regulation as post-retirement bureaucrats get highly paid jobs in the same industry who you helped while in Govt. @nntaleb #RWRI 10 #ImplicitBribe Permalink 1:25 PM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb The message is that It is a very very bad idea to be both evil and stupid. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1096093772830658561   Permalink 10:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Ilhan Omar Smacks Down Elliott Abrams In Front Of Everybody http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/february/14/ilhan-omar-smacks-down-elliott-abrams-in-front-of-everybody/   Permalink 10:03 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@Jaffer22915438 @normonics @nntaleb As I said, she is becoming more interesting and pay attention to who attacks her… https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1096094247336452103   Permalink 9:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@zerohedge Every Queens real estate broker right now pic.twitter.com/FYKZSe5WT2 Permalink 8:52 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb DAY 4 RWRI 10 Andrea Fontanari asking: Where is the tail? #RWRI pic.twitter.com/AJgj0NJ8b1 Permalink 6:28 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb This is EXACTLY why we shd never conflate independence and zero correlation. Permalink 6:22 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@keithbensons Unless you were a sucker, but then recovered from being a sucker(iatrogenics), that’s an even yuuuuger edge. “Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825241185090428928   Permalink 5:55 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Not being a sucker is also a yuuuuuge edge. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1095830320543420417   Permalink 3:56 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Something I learned this morning: A joint fat-tailed distribution under independence is NOT a product of densities –to preserve ellipticality and “stability” of the Stable Distribution. pic.twitter.com/SBC9rvoFPV Permalink 3:50 AM – 14 Feb 2019

@normonics I never fail to regret spending time and energy engaging the “verbagiastic” (h/t @nntaleb for the term) Permalink 12:53 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI-10: A French mathematician trying to measure the tape using the room. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 12:15 PM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb A fight erupted at RWRI-10. Raphael Douady measuring in “meters”. “This is America, we don’t use the f*** metric system”. https://twitter.com/philipdevroe/status/1095761032943992832   Permalink 11:08 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@sergesapiens #RWRI #10 with @nntaleb follows a power law: if you assume that the next day can’t get better you’re likely to be surprised! Permalink 10:38 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb RWRI 10 (day 3) Arié Haziza showing how convex costs of catastrophes are: there is a severe nonlinearity as you pay higher and higher prices for materials during reconstruction. Twice the severity => 2.5-4 times the economic costs. pic.twitter.com/xDDiyUl3M0 Permalink 8:42 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer, a comment on a paper by Maestro Spyros Makridakis @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/iaHPNHMri8 Permalink 8:22 AM – 13 Feb 2019

@mhuckabee1 New personal best today: 275 lbs deadlift x 3 reps. I’ll hit 300 soon. @nntaleb you inspired me! Permalink 4:36 PM – 12 Feb 2019

@nntaleb From “Lebanon” to “Phoenicia”… https://twitter.com/ptashny/status/1095401651840667649   Permalink 11:34 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@TheSuperbubble “commerce brings peace” — @nntaleb https://twitter.com/LarsSchall/status/1095292013321351168   Permalink 4:37 AM – 12 Feb 2019

@paulportesi Lindy. Physical books are engrained with the spirit of life when one holds them. Antilibrary too. @nntaleb 92 percent of students prefer print books, new study shows https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/print-textbooks-vs-ebooks_us_56ba4091e4b0b40245c4534e?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004   Permalink 4:38 PM – 11 Feb 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #IQ @charlesmurray #hayek pic.twitter.com/vfsFhq0Wxr Permalink 7:37 AM – 11 Feb 2019

@TheCalmPeople Quote of the day “my mood, my sadness my bouts of anxiety, are a second source of intelligence – perhaps even the first source.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb #Stress #ConflictManagement #AngerManagement #StressManagement #Happiness #MentalHealthMatters pic.twitter.com/Wf295oesYC Permalink 12:40 PM – 10 Feb 2019

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https://youtu.be/9uj1mD0w7Ww   Permalink 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019

Jordan Peterson, Blitzer, Gabish, EDUCATION, Monsanto, Daniel Dennet, Cannibalism, Rowling, Romer, Fisk, Douma | Twitter

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@davidboxenhorn Skin in the gamehttps://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/989980601653612544   Permalink 3:07 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Basically those who don’t know anything about Syria, like @jordanbpeterson, shd STFU Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I think I am completely done with @jordanbpeterson. Gave him the benefit of the doubt with Monsanto and other nonsense. This does it. Meanwhile let’s see what we get from @Rootclaim’s rigorous hypothesis testing.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/989970697966571521   Permalink 2:46 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@VergilDen #Bigoteering and #Pedophrasty in one tweethttps://twitter.com/doechancellor/status/989728932772499457   Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Wolf Blitzer, a despicable man. Very despicable. To him we need to worry that stopping the shelling in Yemen would lead to a loss of jobs in weapons manufacturing.https://twitter.com/IntheNow_tweet/status/989942263563239425   Permalink 1:37 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Thanks to Hillarists, the “left” now likes militarism, interventionism, censorship, a police state, and mccarthyism.https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/989888000233533440   Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Now, in a modern framework, there is no justification for the asymmetry. Except one needs to stay vigilant abt obsessive weirdos. Permalink 8:35 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb DECISION THEORY DUJOUR Very rational to react more to negative than positive comments,for the same reason one shd react more to losses than profits: RUIN AVERSION Someone who hates you can kill you, so in a physical environment the emotiononal asymmetry is good risk management Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@KarenSweet9 “When a town holds the remnants of an ancient language, one needs to look for vestiges of an ancient practice.” Wow. @nntaleb nails it #insight #SITG #VCBookClub Permalink 8:12 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@Chad_Urban Those of us @ACBACharleston are trying to change the higher ed paradigm. Thankfully, we’re getting some press recognition too on outlets like @gardenandgun and @ThisOldHouse http://gardenandgun.com/feature/a-class-by-itself/  https://www.thisoldhouse.com/watch/demo-time-charleston-houses-2018   Permalink 6:39 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@jordantpine Great insight from @nntaleb’s #SkinInTheGame: “Reading a history book, without putting its events in perspective, offers a similar bias to reading an account of life in New York seen from an emergency room at Bellevue Hospital.” Permalink 4:52 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I have changed the spelling to Gabish, pronounced halfway between a Semitic qof & a Greek hard “g”. Gabish?https://twitter.com/jd_hoggg/status/989595228486164480   Permalink 3:40 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@MicheKilloran “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment” #SkinInTheGame #SITG #VCBookClub @nntaleb Permalink 2:46 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@thalesians Deeply saddened and shocked by the arrest in Iran of @thalesians founder Paul @bilokon’s @imperialcollege PhD supervisor the prominent computer scientist and mathematician Abbas Edalat. #FreeAbbasEdalat pic.twitter.com/S5g8hrcVbl Permalink 12:36 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@financequant If you come to the Real World Risk Institute, this is one if the insights you will learn. That and why talking about volatility often makes no sense at all.https://twitter.com/datascifact/status/989546588233256960   Permalink 9:53 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Random arithmetic progressions #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/9HjaDuR5De Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 10 In #Antifragile I document the confusion Business =>Technology => Science, far far far far more frequent than the reverse. Problem is that academic, not practitioners, write the books. Permalink 8:07 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 9) Remember that the “University” system for this “liberal education” (trivium/quadrivium) was historically closely associated with, and supervised by, the Church. Technical education was left to free thinkers. Permalink 7:00 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 8) The idea that liberal education makes free thinkers is about the greatest myth: empirically, liberal education creates the exact opposite of “thinkers” and “free”: indoctrinated and slaves.https://twitter.com/Plato4Now/status/989487426639990785   Permalink 6:27 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 7) Finally, we can split education: + Taught by nonskininthegame people (math, poetry, etc.) + Taught by skininthegame people (engineering, medicine, belly dancing, plumbing, finance, law, burglarizing, computer “science”, accounting, …) In SEPARATE institutions. Permalink 6:06 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 6) The educational model is now imploding as the only thing people seem to learn at colleges is ideology by losers who became professors because they aren’t good enough to create things & got together to BS in a citation ring #RentSeekers (not just in economics, but everywhere) Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 5b) The French solved the problem with knowledge exams for educators (“aggregation”); you never end up having people judged solely by peers (See #SkininTheGame ). (Same problems: “know economics” is interpreted as knowing theories by economists, not economic facts). Permalink 5:42 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 5a) The problem of the peer review system is selecting professors on theories abt subject never checked for basic knowledge of subject. It is common for people to know the “post colonial gender theory” of Levant, teach it, but never the actual facts. Permalink 5:39 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) So we need to separate “things to learn to be civilized” and “things you learn to do things” with separate institutions. The only overlap I could find was mathematics, though not a strong argument since applied math is a v. different animal. Permalink 5:37 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Anglo-Saxon world conflated the two, with aristocrat-envy: + Education to be civilized. (Literature, philosophy, poetry, abstract math, history, stamp collecting, etc.) + Education to learn to do things. (Engineering, medicine, accounting, law, belly dancing, plumbing) Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) For instance, mathematics as taught for “liberal” education, was theoretical mind exercise. Euclid’s theorem was never used in building. Meanwhile builders (parts of guilds with trade secrets) were using their own heuristic, richer, geometry. (see #Antifragile) Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb EDUCATION. Distilling the conversation with @bryan_caplan hosted by @tylercowen 1) There has been a traditional separation between: + “liberal education” for free men, (liber), who didn’t work for a living, & +”technical education”, for those who labor. Permalink 5:28 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb But @HooverInst has low ethical standarda; it kept @henryimiller who was fired from Forbes for putting articles written by Monsanto— he “wrote” 5 articles smearing me.https://twitter.com/markvirag/status/989467787436453890   Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A think tank fellow had the discipline to overcome my insults to his profession while reviewing my book.https://www.city-journal.org/html/ante-15856.html   Permalink 4:25 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain what’s going on? Thanks.https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/989184815340535808   Permalink 1:53 PM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mark Lynas’ typical charlatan responses. His friend Henry I. Miller was fired from Forbes as his comments were written by Monsanto (including attacks on yours truly). Monsanto papers… tons of documents: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/newly-released-monsanto-papers-add-to-questions-of_us_597fc800e4b0d187a5968fbf  https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/989187323211452416   Permalink 10:37 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@financequant If this doesn’t help you understand p-hacking then you’re beyond hope.https://twitter.com/1962Kiser/status/989181933207732224   Permalink 10:20 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If there is such as thing as Monsanto derangement, why did Monsanto send 1200 letters after my PP paper? Why does Monsanto fund smear campaigns? Why did Monsanto pay “scientists” to write articles abt Glyphosate? Have you seen the Monsanto papers?https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/989160126824308736   Permalink 9:23 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb KELLY CRITERION My lecktchur notes to students. Thanks to @ole_b_peters who showed how stoooooopid decision theorists have been not getting time vs/ ensemble returns. pic.twitter.com/YflQZF4mUB Permalink 8:20 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb CLUSTERING You can detect a shill (such as the charlatan @mark_lynas) using the following method: there is a cluster of people who are both GMO & glyphosate advocates, when the distribution of advocacy shld be somewhat random. What do the 2 have in common? Monsanto.https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/936347998333865985   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “Taboo fatigue”https://twitter.com/normonics/status/988519169074319362   Permalink 6:01 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@PaleoPhil And here is Nassim on the past interchangeability of blue and green:https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/932046776135311360   Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is from Reich(2018): something about splicing I don’t get. Does it mean one only inherits clusters of DNA? Otherwise to exclude an ancestor would be very low probability. Is this 47+71 an average or a stochastic quantity? cc: @trishankkarthik also noticed. pic.twitter.com/286p1x5hAH Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb @danieldennett reminds me of the IYI Arabists secularists in Syria & Iraq who, in 1934, predicted that religion (particularly Islam) would be a thing of the past by 1960; then in 1960, predicted that it would be gone by 1990, then again before Sept 11, predicted… Permalink 3:18 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after all these years, a compliment.https://twitter.com/atakanyz/status/988894548314206208   Permalink 2:51 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Trying to speak Turkish in preparation for my visit to Dunya Guzelihttps://youtu.be/x3ublVoNog0   Permalink 1:30 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@alxpr1c3 it was only a matter of time – https://youtu.be/uEhqXjlCsDQ   @nntaleb Permalink 12:42 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb IYI @danieldennet’s remark is the best advertising for John Gray’s new book.https://www.amazon.com/Seven-Types-Atheism-John-Gray/dp/0374261091/ref=la_B000AQ0VXU_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1524586923&sr=1-1   Permalink 9:23 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Margaritas ante porcos*. *Pearls before swine.https://twitter.com/danieldennett/status/988799650156163079   Permalink 8:33 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@MaxBlumenthal The author of this desperate smear job is so malicious he cited a literal blacklist by a neocon think tank accusing every public figure who has ever given an interview to RT — all 2326 of them — of being “useful idiots” https://twitter.com/maxblumenthal/status/930168593320415232?s=21  https://twitter.com/chrisdyork/status/988720747928588289   Permalink 7:40 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@ole_b_peters What will happen in this experiment? https://osf.io/8t25b/   Will people switch between the specific utility functions EE predicts or won’t they, as EUT predicts? What would be a fair interpretation? @rorysutherland @nntaleb @R_Thaler please guess, comment, retweet. Permalink 7:05 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@ToryAnarchist Don’t miss @DrGeneCallahan’s review of @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/modagejournal/status/988756314926043136   Permalink 5:57 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@thackerpd I love how #FOIA emails keep uncovering more and more “independent” #GMO scientists who, oddly enough, are working with #monsanto @hiltzikmhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/988499832506535938   Permalink 5:55 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) Knowledge entails seeing signal from noise. You don’t get that with promiscuous reading. Permalink 5:05 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The Indians get the idea of rigor!http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/economists-bullshit-for-a-living-nn-taleb-gives-kaushik-basu-a-lesson-on-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 4:38 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Today is #BookDay. Remember The opposite of reading is not not reading, but reading something like @NewYorker (& books in its style) 2) Critical reasoning, the ability to spot logical inconsistencies, degrades w/promiscuous reading. Choose carefully and read little. Permalink 4:33 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@ggreenwald In Yemen today, the Saudis bombed a wedding, killing at least 20 people, including the bride. They killed “mostly women and children.” The US & UK – who some believe do humanitarian interventions – both play vital roles in the Saudi destruction of Yemenhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/yemen-airstrike-wedding-party-killed-injured-bani-qayis-saudi-coalition-latest-updates-a8317826.html   Permalink 4:22 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ Our paper http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   has surpassed 12,425 views/downloads in PLOS ONE. Its finding “the most accurate ML method was worse than then least accurate statistical one” was not contested expect by only one of the several hundred tweets/retweets received. Permalink 12:59 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Always apologize, except when you’ve done something wrong.https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/988229182034362368   Permalink 6:47 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) Unless the person is a risk taker, the higher up in any organization, the more you can dispense with him/her. If the nonentrepreneur CEO of [name your company] did not exist, the world would be the same. Or better. Permalink 3:24 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I woke with this conclusion from Skin in the Game: 1) Things work thanks to a handful of people; the rest operates by situational imitation, narrow mimicry, and semi-conscious role-playing. Permalink 3:19 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Things are easier if you call it Western Eurasia, as the scientific name in genetics.https://twitter.com/GreenPlusAnE/status/988118541399445504   Permalink 11:45 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Actually sub-imbecile @booksandbooze_ doesn’t get that defending grandmother ag Sunstein-style psycholophasters is not because “conservative” but because one prefers nonBS to BS., or prefers what works (w/high STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE) to what fails. This is called SCIENTIFIC. Permalink 9:11 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, who is attacking “science” and “experts”?https://twitter.com/booksandbooze_/status/988051858701914112   Permalink 6:52 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Under the glorious Third Republic, the French gov’s share was 9% of GDP. Today it is ~60% 1 in 12 workers are now civil servants. pic.twitter.com/5NUcZMRoQx Permalink 5:19 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Correction: I said somewhere that the French National Assembly was today mostly composed of professional politicians/bureaucrats’lawyers (the usual IYIs). The rate is about 40%.http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/06/26/quelles-professions-exercent-nos-deputes_5151288_4355770.html   Permalink 3:50 PM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Do you think the Russians interfered in the elections in Saudi Arabia? Permalink 1:51 PM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Reciting Hammurabi in Akkadian while writing Skin in the Game https://www.dropbox.com/s/prgh5gsxj6ghc3m/hammurabi.mp3?dl=0  https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/987727336555581440   Permalink 9:30 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb It takes bet 45 minutes & a week to convince a smart person that GMOs are an intellectual fraud, not science but scientism, that supporters are not “skeptics” but shills, etc. Takes only 30 seconds to convince a computer scientist. Just mention P/NP and they get it instantly. Permalink 7:30 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships are available for the 8th program May 28-June 1st. Full scholarships are available for women, Syrian students, & unemployed people -please mail a (short) CV http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 7:13 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In fact I tend to block people who give unsollicited advice, make logical mistakes, or represent Monsanto/Saudi Barbaria, rarely those who attack me. Permalink 6:22 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The thing is, I enjoy Twitter fights & other public brawls. I always open Twitter with the anticipation one has facing a box of Christmas goodies. If you are scared of opening Twitter, you are doing something wrong.https://twitter.com/CHSommers/status/987495738073583617   Permalink 5:42 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@ggreenwald Things that are *not* press freedom attacks: — Trump tweeting juvenile insults about TV stars. Things that *are* press freedom attacks: — Obama & Trump DOJ prosecuting sources under Espionage Act — DNC suing WikiLeaks for *publishing* docs:https://theintercept.com/2018/04/20/the-dncs-lawsuit-against-wikileaks-poses-a-serious-threat-to-press-freedom/   Permalink 5:17 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) People using such services as @23andMe me for autosomal DNA get percentages (23% this, 10% that, etc.) This is BS: you need to look at INDEPENDENT categories, as in the map above, and look at distance from clusters. Permalink 4:51 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Speculation Du Jour: Genetic distance on PCA Distance on PCA, when small, does not reflect difference in traits, only the rate of inbreeding from period >the Bronze age. When large, disproportional difference in traits. A better measure is differential entropy. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/dsjUs1iEmL Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) In a rational society, pedophrasty should be a powerful tag, at par with “racism” and “sexism” pic.twitter.com/nlTOal9f1E Permalink 4:38 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Pedophrasty is a great way to get people to suspend judgment. So powerful it has to be used by scammers.https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/987442108939284481   Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@surreallyno After 236 pages of thought-provoking chapters, the Epilogue is remarkably simple. And powerful. Great book, Nassim Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/VpxO6BCwDM Permalink 1:04 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@howisthewater The Northern and Western European tradition needed to absorb Rome into their linear classics narrative as otherwise they would need to accept that their progenitors were defeated, butchered, and enslaved by the war machine of the Roman Republic en masse. Permalink 12:10 PM – 20 Apr 2018

@oldlevantine L-ligga l-qurayciyye ma jtééxit minna laxaala. L-muçassassét l-Maruniyyé qilla, min l-qniisé lal-batraqiyyé larr-rahbanéét lal-madééris bi-rimmita, hinné lli ÿawrabo c-caÿb. ss-suusé minna w fiina. The barbarians aren’t at the gate; they ARE the gatekeepers, from the Patriarch on Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Why anything (like academia) that escapes evolutionary selection (survival) will rot. Like economics and this charlatan @kaushikcbasu.https://medium.com/incerto/what-do-i-mean-by-skin-in-the-game-my-own-version-cc858dc73260   Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Charlatans & economists use logical flaw: because a pilot is expert, they are experts. But Pilots are selected via skin-in-the-game mechanisms. Plumbers, dancers, dentists, mathematicians, snipers, pastry chefs are experts. Not this @kaushikcbasu. Economists BS for a living.https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/987179168600350720   Permalink 11:48 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “Mr. Wegert and Mr. Landmesser: People, Numbers and the Tipping Point” by Predrag Brajovichttps://medium.com/@PredragBrajovic/mr-wegert-and-mr-landmesser-people-numbers-and-the-tipping-point-d66848dc9578   Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Map is wrong. Berytus spoke Latin (not just Greek), the coastal towns were Hellenic.https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/986889895871426560   Permalink 9:12 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Where I discover that Benjamin Ferensz and I have been sharing the same Calabrese barbers for 25 years. He is about to turn 100 and speaks Italian! He actually jokes in Italian. pic.twitter.com/Rn8C2VmcA2 Permalink 8:31 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb What the Mary Beards anachronistic BS vendors are confused abt: the genetic distance SouthMed-Roman was a fraction of Brit-Roman. So, if anything, the Brits would have been the “ethnics”. Reich: North Africans (S. Meds) are ecologically WestEurasians.https://twitter.com/2trad4u/status/987334661411082240   Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) You do not build political systems based on wishful thinking (s.a. lets “eliminate” corruption). You build systems ROBUST to the assumption that humans are flawed, self-serving, & prone to suckerdom (let’s make sure corruption/lobbying/thinkthanking don’t have a big payoff).https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/987063810379919361   Permalink 6:59 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it, our precautionary principle page & the computational class for GMOs. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv”>  pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@ektrit HISTORY Being a history buff, and a practicing Christian Orthodox, I could not match the history of the Church and the official European histories. I owe it to @nntaleb to finally understand that 19th-20th century historians simply made RETROACTIVE decisions about 10th century. Permalink 4:24 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If you want an elementary class on HOW TO NOT THINK CRITICALLY: A GUIDE ON CIRCULAR REASONING & BS VENDING, read this fellow @ChrisDYork Why this degradation of reasoning abilities in 2018, not 218? Adverse selection: only rejects become journalists, a recent profession.https://twitter.com/ChrisDYork/status/986865853693087744   Permalink 4:21 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You can see Monsanto bribing educators to promote their “science” on social media. By some coincidence the same ones who tried a character assassination on yours truly. Monsanto worked hard to make people believe that SCIENTISM = SCIENCEhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/987090232351735813   Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ There were a lot of tweets, retweets, likes and criticisms for our PLOS ONE paper http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   with three major ones: 1. The time series were too short 2. They were too noisy 3. There were no explanatory variables to support forecasting Permalink 12:59 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is called cannibalism. Managers of the bank get bonuses, but bank pays fine to the government… and banks are stopped out by the government. The managers should be paying the fines. #skininthegame #RobertRubinTradehttps://nyti.ms/2vpkYRK   Permalink 5:13 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@robertwjordway “…the vast majority of the exercise “science” that is being conducted in universities is complete BS” -@CoachRippetoe, @SS_strength. I think @nntaleb would extend this to several other domains… #startingstrength pic.twitter.com/iSS46yr4XL Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In a centralized system, it takes very, very little money to control government. I am not surprised to see how little money lobbyists make compared to the control they exert over Yuuuge decisions. #localism pic.twitter.com/wUMNKbK6Ss Permalink 1:22 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Inheriting inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/InheritingInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Icfjb3eLt”>  pic.twitter.com/3Icfjb3eLt Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A year and a half later, nobody has yet provided data about Syrian casualties and “genocide”.https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd   Permalink 9:59 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A monoculture (such as the one we have in Saudi Barbaria financed lobbies) will produce logical inconsistencies. pic.twitter.com/v33hXvruJP Permalink 9:37 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Indeed JK Rowling is an insult to logical inference. pic.twitter.com/CW4E9HPCYc Permalink 9:34 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/986977224883568640?s=21   Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My friend Guru is half subsaharan African. Like many SSA he doesn’t like the notion of racism to be diluted by selfserving virtue merchants to the point of lack of effectiveness: its true victims will be first to pay the price.https://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/986926056258068480   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “ In 2015, I asked where to get the style and never got a reply from Wolfram. “ Who are you bullsh**ing? Permalink 7:38 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The Heuristics and Biases tradition does not need this loss aversion stuff (complicated for tail events/dynamics). Its main subject is errors of judgment facing uncertain events: their catalogue works well for non-tails. Permalink 5:44 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@RandPaul I ran for office to put a stop to Washington’s out-of-control spending! Today, I introduced my “Penny Plan” federal budget that will balance within five years.https://youtu.be/8Ti0BmGhDNY   Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath Maestro, do you known where/if this Norm inequality has been proved? pic.twitter.com/GSEFJ4McJt Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION THREAD: Heart Attack Rate for Sprinters Friends, looking for data/papers/other on heart attacks by sprinters vs Marathon runners. Needs to be age-adjusted, properly controlled, etc. cc:@GuruAnaerobic @drjasonfung @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:31 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The type of thing we watch for when we write papers and articles. Ms @juliamacfarlane make sure you read the ethics guidelines before discussing @KarlreMarks pic.twitter.com/Tiou7VEuoq Permalink 2:19 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Notice plagiarist @KarlreMarks uses “he is so eager for intellectual validation”, a sentence that applies everywhere: a nonplagiarist would not have tried something of the sort, rather: sorry I didn’t notice, it is coincidental, etc. Step 2: they downplay plagiarism… Permalink 2:13 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb How every plagiarist respondshttps://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986711038157520896   Permalink 2:03 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Turns out clown @KarlreMarks is also a plagiarist.https://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986506998375157761   Permalink 1:22 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) Further, @paulmromer, answers on both sides could have been lost in spam folders; it is unrigorous to generalize from 1 piece of correspondence. (I for my part have never had an inquiry w/ them that went unanswered). But using it part of rant over private vs public… Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mr @paulmromer, your rant bashing Mathematica is BS: +You misrepresent the reaction of @WolframResearch (they replied) +Offensive to users like myself +Strange for an economist to diss for profit closed systems (incentives?) +You don’t get mathematical tinkering/explorationhttps://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/985280552440909824   Permalink 7:10 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, to be constructive, I recommend @confusezeus and @janinedigi & others in the verbalistic business enroll in a class of critical thinking where the empirical methods of evidence weighting by @Rootclaim are taught.https://philosophy169.wordpress.com   Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Training Bicyclists on a Mountain Road https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/AfterJamesBond.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KusUwfchUM”>  pic.twitter.com/KusUwfchUM Permalink 5:18 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This systematic approach by @Rootclaim (or something of the type) is the only chance we have to use rigor in analysis. As a probabilist I am proud to see my field lead to some clarity. Here is the analysis of the previous chemical event.https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448   Permalink 4:22 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@rory_yeomans Syria is the end point of a journalistic process which began during the Yugoslav conflicts of the 1990s. Make the complex simple and imply any journalist/academic or analyst who has a different insight is an apologist or acting in bad faith. Repeat. Rinse. pic.twitter.com/z065G4cMZz Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Information gains from attempts to repress it. I was neutral to info by Robert Fisk but not neutral to attempts to smear him. The more hyperactivity & anger against him, the more likely his info to be true… #Antifragile Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@LHMMacKenzie Truth really is stranger than fiction. Accusing an acclaimed journalist of assisting in a war crime based on the premise of him reporting a contrasting perspective. 2018 feels more like 1984. Permalink 2:17 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb So @janinedigi, you want Robert Fisk to be judged for war crimes for reporting on events, in a way that contradicts your priors? Stalinism enforced by people disguized as journalists?https://twitter.com/janinedigi/status/985955195589971969   Permalink 1:25 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A Simple Integral of a Peculiar Functrion. Practically no integration https://www.cut-the-knot.org/proofs/SimpleIntegralWithASpecialFunction.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/9SMVIdC11x”>  pic.twitter.com/9SMVIdC11x Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In Skin in the Game: …risk aversion, or something even more foolish, “loss aversion” pic.twitter.com/u6s83iDKKt Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Ha!!!https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/986186324884541440   Permalink 3:23 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “The Corruption of Evidence Based Medicine — Killing for Profit” by @drjasonfunghttps://medium.com/@drjasonfung/the-corruption-of-evidence-based-medicine-killing-for-profit-41f2812b8704   Permalink 2:52 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Enmity can flip twice; friendship only once. Permalink 2:17 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Enmity can reverse twice, friendship only once. Permalink 2:05 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb هيدا منوا الحرف العبري بس الحرف الارامي-كنعاني. اهين الواحد يكتببوا من الحرف العربي Permalink 12:02 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb דלאלת אל חאירינ כתב בל–ערבי, בלכצ אלעבריhttps://twitter.com/bdaiwi_historia/status/985280646493941760   Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@widespreadhaze Robert Fisk reporting from the clinic in Douma at which the victims of an alleged CW attack were filmed. There was no CW attack, the victims were suffering from hypoxia due dust inhalation. Please RT:http://podcasts.spiritradio.ie/robert-fisk-from-douma-syria/   Permalink 11:25 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@Wilkmaster I trust Fisk 100x more than Boris and May on this (Beware though: The jihadis gas captives so you do/will have some Sarin-affected kiddos. Poor little things) pic.twitter.com/PpdoykkeF5 Permalink 9:16 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A preliminary glossary of counteraccusations, to fend of accusatory propaganda such as “racist” in situations where it is not warranted, and similar matters. pic.twitter.com/EU4sDFQbvy Permalink 8:06 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Given the probability of two balls being of the same color. How many are there of each color? https://twitter.com/gregminshall/status/985792358720724992   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hNz9gL3ZEW”>  pic.twitter.com/hNz9gL3ZEW Permalink 6:11 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@WeAreLebanon A sunny fresh day from #Beirut By @hasnafrangieh #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/gtrk18PUUv Permalink 2:32 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid Hype Vs Reality: How accurate are AI/ML methods beyond image, sound and text recognition? It all depends on the type of application and the four factors shown in the photo taken from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eWJaoUYN3A”>  pic.twitter.com/eWJaoUYN3A Permalink 1:15 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My paper on p value hacking was accepted in a journal. I was told the math was peer-reviewed to be OK but that it has to have an explanatory section simple enough that “even a statistitian” can understand. Any comment? https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rH8aM0e7pM”>  pic.twitter.com/rH8aM0e7pM Permalink 3:40 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Espen is the most Independent Yet Rigorous (IYR) thinker I’ve had the privilege to work with. He moved from option trading to math finance to quantum mechanics/statistical physics.https://twitter.com/EGHaug/status/985646350372098050   Permalink 3:33 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb One byproduct of inequality: socially confident scholars who didn’t care abt their reputation: Wittgenstein, B. Russell, Darwin (mostly Erasmus), Galton, De Broglie, etc. I’ve never met any scholar who, like Wittgenstein, didn’t give a flying f**ck abt his/her standing. Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@SimnaniIqbals Jeffry D Sachs said in two minutes all that is to say about Syria. Trump’s initial instincts were right, but then he listened to the establishment. Worth clicking.https://twitter.com/markweisbrot/status/984525820621357056?s=21   Permalink 11:52 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) A powerful one would be “Nabothizing”, as Naboth was the victim of false accusation by Jezebel, or something of the sort. (Incidentally my real family name is Naboth; Taleb Nabout was my gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-grndfather) but the Leb state cut off Nabout in 1923 to simplifity.) Permalink 9:50 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@_benoux_ 1) Some notes on the issue The meaning of words evolve by those who control the narrative, but they can’t control Lindy effect of time. A sophist used to mean “wise” payed by powerful people. Now it’s the opposite. Pharisee was a title of superior sanctity. Now it’s an insult. Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you devalue words like “racism” or “chauvinism” you will end up harming the true victims. Calling someone “Hitler” for trivial reasons is an insult to the real victims of Hitler.https://twitter.com/AndBeyond_N/status/985537088929058818   Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) The idea is that if someone accuses you of something, you spend your time explaining why you are not what you are being accused of. Instead, fire back with a worse accusation, so it is the accuser who now has to defend himself… Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) We BADLY need such word and make it as SEVERE as the accusation itself -a first step towards penalty. Recall that in Babylon a false accusation was punished as if the accuser committed the crime. Permalink 7:29 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We need a word to summarize such INTERVENTIONISTA BS, the fallacy of looking at “dictators” without looking at the OTHER SIDE.https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/985517879524319232   Permalink 7:22 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath For the very beginners https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoBallsOutOfFour.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PLJhr4QodF”>  pic.twitter.com/PLJhr4QodF Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We need a word for the misuse of the accusation of “racism” or “chauvinism” to exploit the power of such label in situations where the accusation is not warranted. Accuser: “This is racist” Answer: “This is the xxxxxx fallacy (or fraud)” GraecoLatin Words are powerful. Permalink 7:20 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@onlmaps Demographics of the Aegean Sea and its Surroundings around 1919,… http://dlvr.it/QPbSN7   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yjQsmg8sl4″>  pic.twitter.com/yjQsmg8sl4 Permalink 4:06 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Delenda Goldman Sachshttps://twitter.com/jay7yagi/status/985397595802619909   Permalink 2:15 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@medialens From the School of Liberal Humanitarian Intervention, Andrew Rawnsley bemoans that the West is ‘guilty of failing to act’ in Syria. No mention of the CIA spending $1 billion per year, arming and training ‘rebels’. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/lawmakers-move-to-curb-1-billion-cia-program-to-train-syrian-rebels/2015/06/12/b0f45a9e-1114-11e5-adec-e82f8395c032_story.html?utm_term=.4b71666d2438   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/D8LqV2X4dL”>  pic.twitter.com/D8LqV2X4dL Permalink 12:26 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@thebeatthatmy @nntaleb circa 2015. Rereading old knowledge in times of stress. Спасибо. pic.twitter.com/j11ScsvAVq Permalink 7:56 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb How about Epipedidexation? A single word you can use in a debate to fend off an accusation with another one. “You are supporting a baby-killer” Answer: “This is shoddy epipedidexation!” Any better word? Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We are maximally vulnerable to pictures of suffering children. Hence manipulation: beggars who rent children, PR firms who stage Syria things, etc. An accusation of “supporting baby killers” is defenseless. Unless we find a name for this shoddy manipulation. Pueri…? Ideas?https://twitter.com/jadinho123/status/984918030017875968   Permalink 12:39 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@catoletters Father Daniel in Syria: “There Never Was a Popular Uprising in Syria”https://www.sott.net/article/354637-Sott-net-Interview-with-Father-Daniel-in-Syria-There-Never-Was-a-Popular-Uprising-in-Syria   Permalink 12:15 PM – 14 Apr 2018

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@BadgerPundit https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/status/960712791211565056   Permalink 8:25 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Any news if $XIV is trading now & what price? Permalink 8:00 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Ancient Egyptians DNA. Please not another Mary Beard BS.http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/scientists-thought-ancient-egyptian-mummies-didn-t-have-any-dna-left-they-were-wrong   Permalink 2:59 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The discovery that Ancient Egyptians were likely to be Natufians/Anatolians.https://twitter.com/joshuagates/status/960533298496901120   Permalink 2:17 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel I published this piece on @nntaleb’s new book and how it applies to investors over the weekend. Seems more relevant than every less than 48 hours later https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/03/5-things-you-can-learn-about-investing-from-nassim.aspx   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1WuyM4fJtW”>  pic.twitter.com/1WuyM4fJtW Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Feb 2018

@nntaleb RE ARTISANS (added to SITG) The most skilled traders are often wealthy, but not the wealthiest: many traders trade out of passion & aren’t interested in running a business. To become a billionaire, one needs an appetite for meetings, discussions with lawyers and regulators, etc. Permalink 5:27 AM – 5 Feb 2018

@nntaleb People associated w/”prestigious” institutions (e.g. Stanford’s @HooverInst) are very vulnerable because the inst. cares abt its image, particularly if as with @henryImiller it is scientific fraud. For that one needs f** you money but those who have it don’t shill for Monsanto Permalink 6:04 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I got uncomfortable with @jordanbpeterson (whom I had been backing) after his thingy with Monsanto. Permalink 5:30 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear officials at the Hoover Institute, @HooverInst have you started some ethics/disciplinary action against @henryimiller who committed a scholarly fraud? Is your board aware of it? Please let us know before we escalate. Thank you. Permalink 5:02 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Articles about me by Monsanto’s shill of shills @henryimiller have been removed by Forbes. Too bad I have no copy! And thank you @garyruskin for your vigilance (assuming you are responsible for busting Miller)! pic.twitter.com/kzrOwHvx6a Permalink 4:50 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Le corp de mon ennemihttps://twitter.com/mercola/status/960196530031472642   Permalink 9:24 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@MarkJDoran Classic example from recent weeks: Mary Beard giving cosy footrubs to Hillary Clinton, with the sickening result pumped out by the Guardian as if it’s an important conversation… Guess what: the word ‘Libya’ *doesn’t appear once*…https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/dec/02/hillary-clinton-mary-beard-donald-trump   Permalink 8:05 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@JulianAssange Intellectuals, with exceptions famous precisely because of their exceptionality, have always served as skilled apologists for the classes who control their funding, career advancement and social elevation.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huMUGm5z6RE   Permalink 7:51 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I hate to write for newspapers (last was 6y ago) because you can’t be playful, write on your own terms, make the reader concentrate on some stuff, etc. Permalink 6:57 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb (انقلاب ) is a loan word from Arabic used for coup and (شورش ) is from Farsi but can be Semitic ( uprooting) Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: where you learn that in Farsi, “revolution” انقلاب is the same word as “coup (d’etat)” ( شورش and انقلاب are synonyms).https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/959999000593170432   Permalink 5:42 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Version 2. pic.twitter.com/fUsafA23WX Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo For an Italian, it is not really Sunday without homemade lasagne. Today no probability, just mouthwatering certainties. pic.twitter.com/pdm0p4YNay Permalink 4:52 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Not getting feedback: it is easy to read? Representative? Instead of sending the book to reviewers (who from experience rarely read the book), I am writing my own exposition. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, this Op-Ed explaining (some of the aspects of) the book is here for comments. Will delete later, as per rules of journal. pic.twitter.com/5QFz31YrOe Permalink 1:37 PM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those who want to see the text of our study on violence (with @DrCirillo ) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/violencenobelsymposium.pdf   Permalink 6:05 AM – 3 Feb 2018

@GhassanDahhan SPECULATION: Sextus Empiricus, the famous Sceptic, was not an Egyptian or an original Greek (i.e. he’s not Sextus of Chaeronea, as some have suggested). I have many reasons to believe that he was a *Libyan Greek*. Permalink 5:14 AM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I almost never post bad reviews. I had to for Pinker’s book. When you see huuuge BS, you shout huuuge BS. https://www.amazon.com/review/R1DEH7FKTGM00W/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8   (some editing will appear in few days) Permalink 2:58 PM – 2 Feb 2018

@ektrit This discovery proves @nntaleb ‘s postulation: “History is Hearsay, plus Fabrication, plus some Truth”https://twitter.com/NPR/status/959552782054256640   Permalink 2:34 PM – 2 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Here’s what I got so far with an explanation of why the result is sometimes e-1 and sometimes just e. It’s all in the formulation. https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RoadToOne.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sHsbt3Zpc8″>  pic.twitter.com/sHsbt3Zpc8 Permalink 9:38 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The problem of statistical inference under fat tails: My next lecktchur, simplified in book with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/rmlg2Enj8x Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The first review of the INCERTO as a whole, not taken as bodyparts, by @BrankoMilan. Bypassing the media (except in France) and skipping the book tour (except for lecktchurs in London & NY). https://goo.gl/LRomZC   Permalink 7:12 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@smnjc “Skin in the game”, par le maître de l’anti-bullshit @nntaleb (excellent compte-rendu de @NessimAitKacimi dans @LesEchos).https://twitter.com/mobivince/status/959392707499188224   Permalink 3:56 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is an honest person. He conceded under the calm convincing skills of@ @DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/959206640124874752   Permalink 5:16 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is an honest person. He conceded under the calm convincing skills of@ @DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/959206640124874752   Permalink 5:16 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Now here is “statistical estimator”. Nothing works under fat tails as is. Hence our book with @DrCirillo https://www.encyclopediaofmath.org/index.php/Statistical_estimator   Permalink 1:43 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dropping points on a circle #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/Qgx21RAtZi Permalink 1:18 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And when you ask these ignorant econometricians like @freakonometrics they recite Extreme Value Theory which never claimed to do statistical inference. Permalink 1:17 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In 100 years we’ve had imbeciles like this Arthur Charpentier claiming that “we know about Fat Tails” not realizing ALL his work goes down the toilet. Where are the papers on statistical estimation? https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MOiB_W4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao   Permalink 1:09 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am tired, tired, tired of people who say “We know about fat tails” yet 1) fail to use them, see 2) the consequences, 3) realize accepting fat tails means CHANGING completely the way to do statistical inference. And NO, nothing has been done by nobody. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html  https://twitter.com/freakonometrics/status/959157853838716929   Permalink 1:01 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Iphone 8, Iphone X, or neither? Thanks in advance, friends. Permalink 10:25 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Corruptionhttps://twitter.com/nonmeek/status/959122957347024898   Permalink 10:00 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@ludvigbel If I had not read @nntaleb, I would have ended up as a bureaucrat married to a boring notary. No kidding, almost happened. Instead I joined startups, endured financial hardship, married an amazing lively girl, moved with her abroad, who knows what next. Ok ok, hindsight bias. Permalink 9:43 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We need more Serge Langs (a mathematician who blocked social scientists from being considered scientists). pic.twitter.com/qqVqGtRXrh Permalink 9:10 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Obviously, the mean simplifies to Exp[T \mu] Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Changing the mind of students, one PhD student at a time.https://twitter.com/birdxi1988/status/959099030147092481   Permalink 8:26 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Voila. Updated Silent Risk and the lextchur notes. pic.twitter.com/KqqvVwfTxv Permalink 7:18 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@BT_BXL Very good short argument for “the uniqueness and importance of Nassim Taleb”. Don’t be put off by Taleb’s ostentatious and digressive style of writing* or his cantankerous persona on Twitter! *unlike @BrankoMilan I think NT’s ideas succeed despite his style not because of it.https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/958139081652953089   Permalink 6:16 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is a draft of the difference between Weak and Strong ergodicities for correction by @ole_b_peters pic.twitter.com/GfnlksQy7e Permalink 5:02 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@ydemombynes 5ème et dernier volume de la cultissime série #Incerto de @nntaleb. Une fois de plus érudit, provocateur, visionnaire. Chapeau l’artiste pic.twitter.com/JBC04Q6ies Permalink 1:52 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Goof to be often understood.https://twitter.com/IndiTrades/status/958739409553170434   Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Dominant haplogroup good proxy of overall distance metric as it matches autosomal DNA. There is no granularity but Tunis has coastal J1, South Italy is heavily J2.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/895599465381339137   Permalink 8:38 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Note from above that to be rich in Europe, one has to use the state. This is what happens when you live under the invasive, large, powerful, centralized State. We were heading in that direction under Obama and his crony capitalists. Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Before you take anyone commentary seriously, ask him for his predictions for the last election (and, worse, the methodology used for it). BS vending is easy to detect.https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/958554711640158209   Permalink 7:12 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Example: Under Obama bankers got in 2010 the largest bonus pool ever, engineered by Tim Geithner. Geithner later got a high paying job in the industry. Permalink 5:58 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) For the slow at getting it, using fame attained *thanks to* the office to sell book contracts is different from attaining fame selling books. Government service is not an investment strategy. Gabish? Permalink 5:56 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Money made THANKS to office is rent-seeking. A former president/PM/official making money from book contracts, lectures, or from “friendly corporations” they helped is THEFT from the public. As bad as it may look, making money BEFORE office is vastly less distorting.https://twitter.com/Annrhefn/status/958623970017857541   Permalink 5:37 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Waiting for a Larger Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/WaitForMax.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YE4bkn2NrP”>  pic.twitter.com/YE4bkn2NrP Permalink 1:42 PM – 30 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is what the precautionary principle deals with. Which is why nudgeboy @R_thaler, verbagiastic @PTetlock & other psychologists are totally klueeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeless about probability.https://twitter.com/cuttheknotmath/status/958381560931213312   Permalink 10:10 AM – 30 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Azar is another Greco-Phoenician from tiny Amioun.https://twitter.com/whitehouse/status/958384973848948736   Permalink 9:18 AM – 30 Jan 2018

@_benoux_ From the 1st scene of Iliad, Achilles openly accuses Agamemnon as being corrupted, in front of the whole council. It’s an attitude typical of the concept of μπέσα (brutal honesty + honour) inspiring respect (not tolerance), central to the fighting greco-mediterranean temperament. Permalink 4:23 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@normonics I note also, in addition to N’s respondents being barbell, so are his interactions. he either savages or has a friendly constructive exchange Permalink 3:00 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@mikeandallie (1/2) My math goal for 2018 is gaining a better understanding of the various processes described in this short video Nassim Taleb published today.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/958045027992825856   Permalink 2:48 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@schmittpaula This is often what happens to truly courageous investigative journalists: unemployment.https://twitter.com/Greg_Palast/status/958023897516998656   Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@startupdaemon You ever wonder why @realDonaldTrump @nntaleb & @ScottAdamsSays argue with idiots on the Internet? It’s even funnier than you think. And instructive.http://startupdaemon.net/2018/01/29/luddic-fraud/   Permalink 2:09 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The difference between weak and strong non-ergodicities, based on Peters and Gell-Mann (2016) cc:@ole_b_petershttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA_6BWkC4og   Permalink 10:31 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Insight” and “analysis” is what commonly bears the scientific designation: bullshit, short for unrigorous verbiagistic text and images strung together.https://twitter.com/johndjordan31/status/957994161411641344   Permalink 7:12 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Symmetry (Silver rule of Isocrates) Treat other countries the way you would like them to treat you. (#Skininthegame)https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/957212097984819200   Permalink 5:02 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb ReLU is excellent, even for other convexities. pic.twitter.com/9dKPy3R6A9 Permalink 4:42 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if Lakens boy @lakens has comments as, although quite verbagiastic & ignorant (he is a f***ng psychologist), he was indirectly useful with previous versions. Permalink 4:28 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Mathematics offer certainties but not effectiveness Engineering offers effectiveness but not certainties Social Science offers neither certainties nor effectiveness Permalink 4:23 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   Reformatted the P-Value paper. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DRAVTU1IF0″>  pic.twitter.com/DRAVTU1IF0 Permalink 4:18 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@NessimAitKacimi Victoriam Roma, Nassim Nicholas Taleb et son nouvel essai “Jouer sa peau” chez @BellesLettresEdhttps://tinyurl.com/yc2hgx26   Permalink 12:43 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@ClimateAudit @nntaleb this should concern you. There are relatively few sites which have continuity from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age. This is also a site which links Indo-European Hittites to neo-Hittite northern Syria. Bombing such an important archaeological site should cause outrage.https://twitter.com/BasileusZeno/status/957360866042753024   Permalink 6:06 PM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb No, there is quite a bit if variance along the line. Permalink 11:45 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) OK, let me be blunt. How many professions do you know, other than the ones where physical attributes are essential, where the modus “sleep your way up” prevails? Permalink 11:11 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Here is the refinement of genetic distance principal components. pic.twitter.com/NkCYDDlSoY Permalink 11:06 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) Now a harder questchon: what is the proportion of actors who voted for Hilary Monsanto-Malmaison? Permalink 8:55 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Remember: actors are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 7:47 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Hilarious!https://twitter.com/walid970721/status/957142684027809793   Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) And for the slow thinkers on the thread, you don’t see gynecologists or train engineers lektchuring the rest of the world on virtue. Actors do. Gabish? Permalink 6:32 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Actors should not be the ones lektchuring the rest of us on ethics & morality. They also have a tendency to conflate virtue and its external manifestation, given that everything in their world is appearance.https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 5:47 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@ole_b_peters Great, thanks! Multiplicative coin toss, discussed in the paper with Murray http://aip.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/1.4940236   with an (old) video here https://youtu.be/LGqOH3sYmQA?t=4m4s   Also instructive: X does an unbiased random walk. Heads: X -> X+1 Tails: X -> X-1 Fair coin. — what’s the time average of X? Permalink 5:26 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) I do not know many industries where people are hired either a) on looks, or b) ability to impersonate what one is not. Permalink 5:26 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Romans banned actors from marrying, even mixing with citizens. Same dynamics in modern times, but self-inflicted: engineers can mix w/gynecologists… actors stay with actors. Look at the funerals of “gens du spectacle”. Permalink 5:14 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb To understand why what happens in Hollywood is irrelevant to the rest of humans: 1) How many ACTORs do you have among your friends? 2) How many ACTOR friends do your friends have? Actors rarely mix with real people. Permalink 4:57 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@NonGMOProject Shop Non-GMO Project shirts, hats, stickers and more at http://store.nongmoproject.org  ! ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YJOFxlOZRx”>  pic.twitter.com/YJOFxlOZRx Permalink 6:10 PM – 27 Jan 2018

@byzantinepower Trabzon, Antalya (ad infinitum) are lost cities of #Byzantium & the people of these cities still miss the golden days of rule of the #Byzantines. This is the time for #Byzantium to reclaim all lost lands. #OperationLabarum https://twitter.com/sideeque96/status/955413119576170496   Permalink 12:30 PM – 27 Jan 2018

@Marcellenassif https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYZMrFWnMes   Cretan dance. Well if this is not separated at birth with Lebanese dabke! Permalink 11:43 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Correlates with the J2 look.https://twitter.com/romepix/status/713087120718561280   Permalink 10:11 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb We are not doing any press “promotion” for the book! No books to reviewers (except in France). Why? Just to verify that the Media is something of the past. Permalink 7:18 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Amazon finally discounted SKIN IN THE GAME. I will buy a copy myself. https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/042528462X/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=   Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@_skininthegame @nntaleb just finished SilentRisk – a masterpiece. To those who criticize his work as “pop”, take a look at SilentRisk. All the math behind Incerto is there. A technical tour de force on decision making under opacity. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@EricRWeinstein Did @OwenBenjamin crack this wide open in his analysis of one photo? Are 10 men in ties distorting our sense that everyone who doesn’t agree with them is worthy of ridicule? When do these guys appear in open unscripted conditions? Never? pic.twitter.com/JQSgTlp0jG Permalink 5:33 PM – 26 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Not the point. What the entertainer/bullshitvendor @SamHarrisOrg calls “science” isn’t rigorous science but low-grade scientism. Science doesn’t make overreaching claims on how to act outside its narrow domain. Permalink 11:39 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Problem CC252 from @CruxMath #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/fe4WeTqpl1 Permalink 11:26 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3am nshtghl 3laya.https://twitter.com/learn_lebanese/status/956575940406140930   Permalink 9:29 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@dougvk this distinction between rationality, “rationality”, science, scientism, belief, risk, and skin-in-the-game cleanly separated a lot of ideas i’ve been playing around with. @nntaleb always thought provoking, but this one especially:https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 9:10 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Which is why those self-styled “scholars” aren’t scholars but derivative academic rent-seeking rats. Better to define yourself as “flaneur”. Permalink 7:43 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Likewise things that have “democratic” in them, s.a. “democratic republic of Korea/China, etc…” or “Democratic Party” of U.S. aren’t democratic but narrowly elitist. Permalink 1:26 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Any form of direct harm inflicted on innocent citizens is immoral, no different from other war crimes.https://twitter.com/catoletters/status/956247781936594945   Permalink 12:06 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb NYT is lauching its ad slogan: “Truth”. Those in the business of saying the truth don’t advertise that they are saying the truth, except by taking risks in saying the truth. Remember that the Soviet’s offical organ was called Pravda, “Truth” in Russian. Permalink 12:04 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@AndrejDrapal When @nntaleb exposes “soviet harward method” in #Antifragile, he makes my day almost perfect. The rest of the book takes away “almost”. Permalink 11:51 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@AlphaBetaBlogFR “Plus on s’élève au niveau macro, et moins les gens deviennent responsables de leurs actes, c’est un phénomène caractéristique de nos États modernes.” Un entretien passionnant avec @nntaleb, dont le dernier livre vient de sortir. http://bit.ly/2rB5hFi   via @rajules Permalink 6:15 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb First Interview about Skin in the Game: The French get it, (Translation) https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.latribune.fr%2Fopinions%2Ftribunes%2Fnassim-n-taleb-c-est-grace-au-genre-de-folie-individuelle-qu-est-un-entrepreneur-qu-une-societe-fonctionne-765765.html&edit-text=&act=url   Permalink 5:10 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In the 1864 census of Mount Lebanon Shiites were not counted as Muslims but “Metwalis”.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/955922228503351298   Permalink 3:49 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Jouer sa peauhttps://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/nassim-n-taleb-c-est-grace-au-genre-de-folie-individuelle-qu-est-un-entrepreneur-qu-une-societe-fonctionne-765765.html   Permalink 2:59 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Val” in the email is Val Giddings who spent time trying to deligitimize me on the web after our Precautionary Principle paper.https://twitter.com/StacyMalkan/status/955920547480768512   Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Jan 2018

@GreenRupertRead Aha. The great Chesterton appears to have anticipated @nntaleb in creating the #IYI concept: #IntellectualYetIdiothttps://twitter.com/GKCdaily/status/955846939182010368   Permalink 9:05 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Antioch is the capital of Ancient Syria More Greek than the Greekhttps://twitter.com/CCavafy/status/955789681886670849   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@nntaleb International Association of Name Droppers (IAND) ( What I called the Davos WEF in The Black Swan) Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@MarcosCarreira Exact Solutions for Choosing the Largest Number: http://mcarreira.typepad.com/mc_notes/2018/01/exact-solutions-for-choosing-the-largest-number.html   @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb The optimal ks are linear on log[n], much higher than the (1-1/n)-like heuristics; includes code to generate (and solve) automatically the probability equations for any n ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DjfEtnp9l2″>  pic.twitter.com/DjfEtnp9l2 Permalink 5:54 PM – 22 Jan 2018

@Sophiam1973 psychpathologisation – when someone accuses another of having a psychopathology to win an argument or for other bad faith reasons. Neologism created by @nntaleb #neologism #psychopathologise Permalink 12:31 PM – 22 Jan 2018

@thackerpd The trolls will now start accusing you of wanting children in Africa to starve, because corporate mergers will feed the world’s hungry.https://twitter.com/Colin_Todhunter/status/955456272651997184   Permalink 11:44 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala lghgha Ma fi lghgha bala 2adab Ma fi 2adab bala ktebe Permalink 9:04 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@philomag “Jouer sa peau. Asymétries cachées dans la vie quotidienne” @BellesLettresEd : Nassim Nicholas @nntaleb remet à sa manière la vertu et l’éthique de la responsabilité au cœur de toute entreprise dans https://buff.ly/2DV3JbH   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EHS7Q2pbfP”>  pic.twitter.com/EHS7Q2pbfP Permalink 7:31 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, it is MY Haplogrop. Permalink 7:02 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb More interesting than his commie rant, Bernie Sanders is J2 Haplogroup. Now J2b? Does someone know the subclade?https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/955446549684813824   Permalink 6:39 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/xM8anTA93X Permalink 5:35 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Good point. Avoid the verbalistic. Have the discipline to define a Ponzi scheme. Then you can see that Bitcoin, no matter what “bubble” characteristics you impart to it, will not be a Ponzi. And avoid reading ANY commentary on Bitcoin by a NYT subscriber or a tenured econ Prof.https://twitter.com/JuergenStrobel/status/955425189650731014   Permalink 5:08 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Baddna na3réf kif niktob l-lbnéné (amma nsammi ken3ané). Ktébé “B Ed of Procrustes” la7 yetla3 bil-lbnéné. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI   Aya 7arf? @turlevnon @faleflix @oldlevantine Permalink 3:41 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Baddna na3réf kif niktob l-lbnéné (amma nsammi ken3ané). Ktébé “B Ed of Procrustes” la7 yetla3 bil-lbnéné. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI   Aya 7arf? @turlevnon @faleflix @oldlevantine Permalink 3:41 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Moved my Bitcoin piece to Mediumhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/bitcoin-1537e616a074   Permalink 3:08 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Bitcoin”https://medium.com/p/bitcoin-1537e616a074   Permalink 3:01 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@davidboxenhorn Any employee of the IRS or Justice Department who loses records that they are required to keep, should face the same consequences as a civilian that loses records that the IRS or Justice Department requires them to keep. Skin in the game @nntaleb Permalink 12:20 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It is not rice but vermicelli pasta cooked like rice https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fideuà   Permalink 5:07 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@OneCuriousLemur Definitely. I found a lot of value in arguments from @nntaleb that science was largely a hobby for most of its history. The directed-funding structure and emphasis on publications perverts the process into one of trying to be the loudest chick in the nest Permalink 4:59 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Best squid ink pic.twitter.com/jChzMqib4m Permalink 4:43 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/oVBbNZ3XJB Permalink 4:36 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Hahahahahaha. Since klueless Massimo @mpigliucci did not withdraw his piece, here is something putting him (and you all) back in your place.https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 2:44 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb cc:@LuisBun Permalink 2:06 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Yes. Other techniques than PCA in information theory. But all work, sort of, in giving probabilistic information. If we do find earlier Macedonians of some Most Common Ancestor, game is easier.https://twitter.com/LuisBun/status/955195554438541313   Permalink 2:03 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Here is Pierre Zalloua’s @PZalloua version using ~complete DNA. It includes Bronze age DNA, which is significant to show that what we had in Roman times was not too different from what we got today (Brownian Bridge reasoning). pic.twitter.com/07bSUmiBdL Permalink 12:26 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) The hockey stick represents the payoff of the option, which is why Deep Learning feels so natural to deriv. traders, but not overeducated and miseducated social scientists. Permalink 6:40 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) So this is a great way to show how the framework used by nudgeboy @R_Thaler & other psychology BS vendors is unrigorous & why their “science” is pseudo-science. Machine learning, just like Antifragile, is based on the logic of organic reality. Permalink 6:35 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) So whatever in the world is robustly (and locally) forecastable NEEDS to fold into that decomposition, as aid. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Even more exciting is that I wrote 2 books Dynamic Heding & Antifragile on same convex-concave decomposition. So I am sooooooooooooo thrilled to see that Machine Learning is based on convexity. My medical chapter in AF makes the applications to Medical Diagnostics obvious! pic.twitter.com/yRRmSoWuAY Permalink 6:14 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb My grandmother did not want me to forget this. Shiites were also routinely massacred. pic.twitter.com/wIukIzw8ER Permalink 6:04 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) This explains why machine learning “forecasting” works: it doesn’t forecast events but series of layered rules, at different scales. EXCITING! Permalink 5:56 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Both methods aim at getting rid of the VERBALISTIC: most risks, exposures, forecasts in the real world are not expressed into simple words, because of nonlinearity. This is my bone with verbagiastic @PTetlock. Machine learning transcends that via same atomic hockey sticks. Permalink 5:55 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) The Uncanny resemblance betw. DEEP LEARNING and my CONVEX PAYOFF FUNCTION, the *Dynamic Hedging* decomposition’s approach. Statistical machine learning decomposes functions into hockey sticks (similar to figure on left). So do we break every payoff into sums of atomic ones. pic.twitter.com/UEMncZaCpi Permalink 5:53 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Not the point. People bothered by my message disguize their complaint as *personal advice* which I find odious. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb What makes you think I care about your advice? Permalink 5:32 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So minorities thrived in an environment because there was the EXACT opposite to the “equal opportunity” act. Which is why I believe Social Justic Warriors always produce the exact opposite to what they seem to want. Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb My grandmother explained to me why many family members were doctors, & almost all doctors in the Ottoman empire were Christians (or Jews). “They won’t kill you if you can heal them”, she said. Permalink 5:08 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And the replies by some Social Justice IYIs that these minorities were “oppressors” are BSp. Minorities went into trade because they were discriminated against for government/military jobs. They were DHIMMIS, for God’s sake! Antifragility: stressors made them stronger. SJ idiots. Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It is Harald Cramer. He refined the RUIN problem. (revamping SILENT RISK for lecture notes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Cramér   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rHPxIvBtHT”>  pic.twitter.com/rHPxIvBtHT Permalink 4:23 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Who is the true father of the distinction thin-tails/fat tails? Permalink 3:37 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb If after one year of Trump you aren’t convinced that the entire class of today’s “intellectuals” has no grasp of reality, you too have no grasp of reality.https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   Permalink 1:49 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Elephant in the room. The Coptic minority, past 20 y’s exodus, represented the majority of merchants & professionals in Egypt. Bagdad was 55% Jewish. Losing disproportionately skilled minorities explains the relative decline of Turkey & Egypt.https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/954848813923127297   Permalink 1:18 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@Cockneywonder For some people it’s money, for others it’s a femme fatale, but they hook you with squid ink, these Ruskies are just too cunning. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I also vehemently deny the rumor that I understand Russian. I deny. Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Moscow had 6 minutes sunshine in December Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists: I am transiting in Moscow airport. 3 hours… They had something like only a few minutes of sunshine in past month. pic.twitter.com/ZrAAG96fVf Permalink 3:46 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I remained silent with verbagiastic Tetlock’s @Ptetlock comments about my election forecasting (to other clueless psychologists) without even getting basic stuff about probability and forecasting. No more. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf  https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/954660774487756800   Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@0xAC1DBA5E A picture is worth a thousand words. This is so much better than all the anecdotal political bullshit from pseudo academics. Permalink 2:17 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The genetic map of mankind looks like a triangle with 3 corners, points on only 2 sides, & almost nothing in the interior. The vertical axis counts less than the horizontal one as the 1st PC explains the bulk of the distance. Permalink 7:38 PM – 19 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath #6 – an interesting probability problemhttps://twitter.com/maanow/status/952255844367790080   Permalink 4:22 PM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The method is explained very very well on Wiki pic.twitter.com/r976uAeVqY Permalink 11:45 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb To understand the Mary Beard BBC cartoon problem, here is a 2-D genetic distances of the world (PCA); the map seems to work (if you are confused about Peru, it is not without a reason). Wonder if someone has seen a 3-D PCA cc:@PZalloua pic.twitter.com/xLRSGI51FN Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@normonics the irony of the responses that only no SITG academics would utter. like saying there is ‘surprisingly little evidence’ that survival (and non-survival) plays a role in evolution. Permalink 5:50 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) For Context about #nudgeboy’s misunderstanding the very concept of Skin in the Game. pic.twitter.com/TstvWlxrRA Permalink 12:40 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Other problem nudgeboy @R_Thaler holds (in support of verbiagiastic @PTetlock) that a psychological experiment can show … how can hide risk? How can a psychological experiment reveal RISK HIDING and the Bob Rubin Trade? Who is he fooling? pic.twitter.com/yNKR8gtH1w Permalink 12:08 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) I had some restraint with @PTetlock for past years until yesterday when he used the “best-selling author” to dismiss my technical arguments; Finance professor @WGoetzmann did same with”airport books”). Given what I know about his probabilistic understanding, Tetlock is done. Permalink 11:42 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) If you want to understand why @r_thaler (who blocked me on Twitter) keeps nervously defending ag. my criticism, remember the effect of getting the “Nobel” on one’s insecurity. R_Thaler is short volatility.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/902138152281919488   Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Mr @PTetlock isn’t getting that if it is “hardly new”, WHY is he conflating ensemble probabilities & time series probabilities? Why is he ignoring absorbing barriers/tails? So either it is not new & he is totally INCOHERENT or … Keep digging.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/954035896260661248   Permalink 10:47 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@CgGeagea “The historical trick is that it was the Ottomans who were Francophile! (Actually Greco-Roman-phile).” @nntalebhttps://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/when-did-lebanese-christians-start-speaking-french-771603969932   Permalink 10:08 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) This list summarizes what’s wrong with behavioral economics. A more expanded piece to follow. pic.twitter.com/VKVQKfyFGX Permalink 3:19 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In fat tailed environments, or under trial-and-error convex payoff, how often one is wrong has no bearing for those w/#skininthegame. The payoff from tail success will dominate. Pretty much everything done by psychologists on probability, @rthaler or others, is pure garbage Permalink 3:18 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The opposite. There is no payoff. Forecasters forecast success probability not payoff from success, hence will game the system. In the real world what matters is what you get when right, not HOW OFTEN right. See Silent Risk or the stories in INCERTO, part. Fooled by Randomness.https://twitter.com/MLescrauwaet/status/953943622608670720   Permalink 3:00 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) ALPHA MALE PRIVILEGE Trump’s voters have no illusion: they elected an alpha male with the “defects” that come with it. They knew they were’nt electing a pope, a schoolteacher, or an Ottoman eunuch. Permalink 12:42 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb KPACIVO pic.twitter.com/hvP38aH8wn Permalink 12:13 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@salilstatistics Your summary @JGreenblattADL/@ADL_National is what is irresponsible. Only stating “70+% of extremist murders” are by white supremacists, with “only” 26% by Islamic extremists. And failing to note that 70+% of the population is White, while “only” 1% is Islamic. cc @nntaleb Permalink 8:24 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@normonics This guy is claiming there’s not much evidence that evolution works. SITG is necessary condition for evolution.https://twitter.com/r_thaler/status/953756430904868865   Permalink 7:11 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@pmaymin The @nytimes published my letter to the editor about @realDonaldTrump: http://nyti.ms/2FN8WTC   cc @nntaleb Also the slightly longer pre-edited version attached; main difference is USSR sentence. Which is better? ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UK0K0q4Eod”>  pic.twitter.com/UK0K0q4Eod Permalink 6:43 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@AStratelates I don’t know of any instance of Taleb ripping into someone who didn’t deserve it. Permalink 2:49 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@pauld1981 @nntaleb I doubt the research includes “dynamic repeated decisions”https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/953756430904868865   Permalink 2:42 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Why pple like @PTetlock can’t understand decisions and forecasting.https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 2:21 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb BS continues: He didn’t get SITG. SITG is a BS filter so those who have it are subjected to Darwinian selection/ absence of ruin. IT IS NOT EVALUATED FROM SINGLE ISOLATED DECISIONS, but from dynamic repeated decisions. Forecasters in words aren’t subjected to ruin.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/953741253409165312   Permalink 2:17 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, as Yogi Berra said: “You can’t tell them if they don’t know” Permalink 12:43 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another example that those who don’t have skin in the game will never, never realize that skin in the game is the marker.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/953229284218372096   Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb KA3AKCTAH pic.twitter.com/v1FfQiMjP0 Permalink 2:27 AM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The George Bush & Barack Hussain Obama administrations let Saudi Barbaria (our ally) brainwash a generation of Saudis into believing that Christians, Shiites, Atheists, Pagans, New Jersey pple & Zoroastrians are deviants.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/953483566557597696   Permalink 8:43 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Choosing the Largest Random Number https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ChoosingLargestNumber.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/wK4IdQnaRw”>  pic.twitter.com/wK4IdQnaRw Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 12) When I talk abt Lebanese war, I talk from #skininthegame & eyewitness: mortar shells in my bedroom, blood of victims on my clothes, disastrous finances, house blown up, family members as hostages, cargo boat rides to Cyprus… Won’t be lecktchured by some low IQ pseudolib. Permalink 2:16 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb An intereting probability problem for the @CutTheKnotMath collection.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/953035313101885441   Permalink 1:43 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 11) This said I am now in an Armenian (Aleppo) restaurant in East Beirut. Permalink 11:17 AM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 10) “Histories” of the Lebanese war whitewash Palestinians and demonize Christians. They omit the Damour pogrom, in which Christians saw aims at ethnic cleansing similar to what was done to Armenians. Having learned from Armenians, Christians fought back. Permalink 11:38 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@bybloslaqlouq This is the best thread about the Lebanese civil war I have ever read. I’ve been waiting for decades for someone to say this…https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/953011531310125059   Permalink 11:27 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 9) Meanwhile there has to be a minority rule harming the Palestinians by contagion. They displace independent Palestinians such as @saifedean (libertarian/localist) who, as libertarians, have for ethical mission to be model citizens. Permalink 3:42 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) The thread started with a “cool” remark. So being on the “left” and “pro-Palestinian” means condoning ethnic cleansing/ extermination, even genocide of Christian minorities in the Levant (not counting the Allawites and Shiites). These are typical “left” wing Arabist values pic.twitter.com/SrWP7UQc7d Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This is the Lindy Effect, ~3-5000 year old. In Semitic languages, it’s called a KTB (ketubah, kiteb), a standard marriage contract (which can be time-defined).https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/953012112330194944   Permalink 2:46 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@DrCirillo Little quiz I asked today. I have a bivariate discrete survival function, for which I know: – P(X≥ x,Y≥ y) – P(X≥ x, Y≥ y+1) – P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y) – P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y+1) What is P(X=x,Y=y)? Hint: P(X≥ x,Y≥ y) ≥ P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y+1), etc. Permalink 2:44 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7b) This said I think nobody should get involved into other people’s problems unless there is skin in the game. The Palestinians were victims of overall bad governance.https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 2:34 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7a) This anti-abstract, anti-monoscale, and anti-power against citizens and groups, is the theme of the (finally discounted) next book.https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/042528462X/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8   Permalink 2:31 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Let me reexplain. I am a localist, a la Swiss, pro-subsidiarity; pple have the right to self-organize; be neighbors not roommates & let their municipality run its affairs; I am anti repressive top-down universalist system. Left/Right classifications are for pol-sci idiots. Permalink 2:17 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) I am tired of people pointing to doctored-up Wikipedia pages of massacres AGAINST Palestinians, downplaying the trigger of first POGROMS (s.a. Damour) BY Palestininans? Similar to the Syrian war propaganda making it look like Evil gov vs Jihadi Saints. Permalink 1:45 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am a child of the Lebanese civil war. Before the war I had been stopped by Palestinian at roadblocks & received gratuitous abuse by their “soldiers” simply because I was a 15 year old Lebanese (Christian). It was common. We were FED up #Skininthegame not some pseudolib BS. Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) In 100 years of Armenian presence in Lebanon, all you hear are reports of an industrious community that tried to help. As to Palestinians’ model: biting the hands that fed them HAS BEEN their modus operandi. They did the same in Koweit, siding w/Saddam against their hosts. Permalink 1:15 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) It was a declared objective for Arafat that “the road to Jerusalem goes through (Maronite stronghold) Jounieh”. Permalink 1:12 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) You can’t BS w/history. Two Groups of refugees came to Lebanon. 1) Armenians & 2) Palestinians. Armenians tried to give more than they took. Palestinians tried to “liberate” their land by taking over Lebanon & exterminate Christians as “Crusaders/representatives of West”. https://twitter.com/rawantifada/status/953003987183308800   Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@shahidkamal I find half of what @nntaleb writes deeply uncomfortable and challenging, which is why I follow him. Permalink 12:57 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Exactly. You don’t try to change the place that invited you. Permalink 12:35 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb For those slow in getting the point about what my aphorism meanshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb When immigration is done by single individuals, it is immigration. When done by groups, it is invasion. Permalink 11:31 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This #Beirut film is no different from “Borat” meant to be about Kazakhstan, in which the cast was mostly Romanian Romas speaking Hebrew. Permalink 8:36 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The movie #Beirut was filmed in Morocco with NO Lebanese cast and not a single connection to Beirut other than the name. Permalink 6:11 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Largely p-hacking, among other crap.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/936563894339948544   Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Best Twitter (and general) strategy: block any person psychopathologizing another, particularly when there is political divergence. (Use if accusations s.a. “narcissist”, “inf/superiority complex”, etc.) Remember: psychology is junk science. Permalink 2:15 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/23nEGZ5ktm”>  pic.twitter.com/23nEGZ5ktm Permalink 1:54 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It just hit me from @MTayyabAhmed’s remark that indeed you don’t really exist if you are not free in something.https://twitter.com/MTayyabAhmed/status/952648027046588417   Permalink 3:50 PM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Phoenician style in Central Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/zOEB1Sfquh Permalink 11:04 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@EHSANI22 Mosaic flooring discovered near Hama (oqairabat) as Syrian Army was clearing mines. Writing seems dedicated to Saint Alexander and to a most respectful bishop named Evangelus. ΕΠΙΤΟΥΑΓΙΟΥΚΑΙΕΠΙΣΚΗΜΩΝ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΟΥΤΟΥΟΣΙΟΤΑΤΟΥΠΕΡΙΚΑΜΜΟΥΚΑΙΤΟΥΕΥΛΑΒΕΣΤΑΤΟΥΕΥΑΝΓΕΛΛΟΥΕΥΞΑΜΕΝ” pic.twitter.com/1vGFUQGBm1 Permalink 6:35 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@JosephChimienti Reading antifragile by @nntaleb and says a man’s only free when he judges with full sincerity. Must call a spade a spade. Permalink 5:26 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Every single item at the Sunday extended family Lunch in Amioun has an indigenous name. No Arabic. pic.twitter.com/wN1OGDjSB0 Permalink 4:05 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Stable definition of Communist = Highly Selective Memoryhttps://twitter.com/phl43/status/952509904593530880   Permalink 4:02 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A new version of “No, Lebanese is not a ‘dialect’ of Arabic”. Truly, Semitic linguists don’t know how to categorize.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Denial being of course a necessary but insufficient condition. Permalink 2:12 PM – 13 Jan 2018

@nntaleb No rumor is true until officially denied.https://twitter.com/billclinton/status/952271892756553728   Permalink 1:43 PM – 13 Jan 2018

@Spfannenschmidt “Le courage est la seule vertu que l’on ne peut pas feindre.” NN Taleb @nntaleb Jouer sa Peau, p268 https://www.lesbelleslettres.com/contributeur/nassim-nicholas-taleb   Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Sam Walters’ Four Questions https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/SamWaltersFourQuestions.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra with thanks to @SamuelGWalters ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jQAtJHsfVL”>  pic.twitter.com/jQAtJHsfVL Permalink 2:37 PM – 12 Jan 2018

@nntaleb If there us to a piece of advice from me you want to remember, take the following: Never use Google Maps in Beirut. Never. Permalink 9:26 AM – 12 Jan 2018

@MarcosCarreira Mathematica notebook and converted PDF available here: http://mcarreira.typepad.com/mc_notes/2018/01/russian-roulette.html   partitions*multinomials=>compositions*(generalised derangements)=>possible sequences Permalink 3:48 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I’ve plan in 2018 to 1) be more blunt, 2) be much, much, much more stubborn, and 3) have more squid ink.https://twitter.com/des_turner86/status/951581775536455680   Permalink 2:50 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Parigi pic.twitter.com/QbvMKi14Q7 Permalink 12:19 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In Paris with @MarcosCarreira arguing about the most “elegant” solution. He is using overlapping tuples, I am using the Multinomial distribution. (Marcos is doing a PhD in Math Finance at Ecole Polytechnique) pic.twitter.com/qQ0AssTkws Permalink 9:55 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@Spfannenschmidt French term of the day : attrape-couillon — Jouer sa Peau par NN Taleb @nntaleb p223http://choualbox.com/CKWsy   Permalink 9:44 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” dans Philosophie magazine. pic.twitter.com/NbdXTkRdir Permalink 3:41 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@PZalloua Phoenicians were explorers, not conquerors! @nntalebhttp://www.newsweek.com/dna-mysterious-ancient-civilization-phoenicians-explorers-greeks-romans-774524   Permalink 11:27 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The unfortunate part of breaking a fast: makes you less aggressive, less active in BS debunking, less of a hunter. You need to act *while* fasting. I had on my agenda setting @jordanbpeterson straight/ teaching him a lesson on reasoning, science & ethics; becomes less urgent. Permalink 5:55 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Sokrates used to walk around the house delaying his meal as he held that hunger was the best seasoning. (#Antifragile) Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star. Permalink 4:54 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Bone marrow. It makes fasting easy when you know the exact reward. pic.twitter.com/BKhHZchqFD Permalink 4:42 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Paris: breaking the second fast (40h) pic.twitter.com/YeLNQubZGN Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@melodielaggaffe A video by @nntaleb on how to write #Lebanese. Answering the question why Said Akl alphabet didn’t catch up immediately without even tryinghttps://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI   Permalink 3:46 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Group Russian Roulette – The Easy Part #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/r8SkphLTin Permalink 1:16 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And the best nutritionist is your great-grandmother.https://twitter.com/jeitoapp/status/950110908533084161   Permalink 12:43 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@lpbreva This will keep you sane and will help you ignore all the advice you’ll get about “validating” your idea. @nntaleb put it nicely in a recent tweet: “Social scientists want to ‘learn statistics’ w/o understanding probability.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/881500380479279104   Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@TheBondFreak @bigfatsurprise That could be one of the most ignorant statements I’ve ever read. @nntaleb would have a field day with that guy. pic.twitter.com/FeoyUxXeSy Permalink 9:48 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@JMJalel_H @nntaleb mentions #Libya 2011 to explain his new book’s title—“Skin in the Game”: “If you’re a #Paris official with a nice house in the countryside & a taste for ski vacations, then of course it is very easy for you to be in favor of a military intervention by #NATO in #Libya.”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/950756404473794560   Permalink 9:13 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb How to write Lebanese (in Lebanese) https://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI   via @YouTube Permalink 8:33 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Une breve présentation de mon nouveau livre deja en librairiehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzBdTV8Qwo8   Permalink 7:49 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@Darius1296 So the correct way to use R^2 is to theorise a relationship between two variables first, and then use R^2 to test that theory? The fallacy is to try out every single curve and pick the one that maximises R^2. Permalink 3:15 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Solution for the Christmas binge: Fast 45 hours, visit the gym during the fast, and you are done. Permalink 4:56 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So we can call it the Tolstoy-Friedman rule. Milton Friedman (who was a remarkable statistician) used to tell students: “If you don’t see it in Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), it’s not there.” Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In other words, as Tolstoy told us: “You can be linear in only one way, nonlinear in zillions of ways.” Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A detail every appliedprobastatisticists needs to spot. Whenever it’s not a straight line, R^2 cannot be what is claimed because we lose degrees of freedom from fittin *which* nonlinearity. Insight from Milton Friedman. @DrCirillo and I will diskuss in our new book.https://twitter.com/afrakt/status/950323771847659520   Permalink 12:40 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) The point is not that he thought that Debt =>Wealth, but that what he had constituted a definitive “scientific proof” and that, to him, the problem was settled. Permalink 11:42 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Nice to see legal theorists catching up to the minority ruuuuuuule. http://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1074&context=wlulr-online   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/a1KduxGkSZ”>  pic.twitter.com/a1KduxGkSZ Permalink 7:42 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb His “proof” was: Debt was up => GDP/inventions went up. He could not get that, also “Smoking went up => GDP went up” or “pollution => GDP went up”. So I called him an idiot. Permalink 6:32 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I once called Michael Wolf (Trump’s biographer) a IDIOT to his face at a London dinner Q&A event 6 years ago. (He claimed having an “indisputable scientific proof” that debt “caused” prosperity, the industrial/technological revolutions…) @rorysutherland @Silva Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile: stress, and only stress improve bone density. 6 years later.https://twitter.com/jama_current/status/947112544161943552   Permalink 7:13 PM – 7 Jan 2018