Tag Archives: Gabish

REPLICATION CRISIS, Gabish, Monsanto, Donaldo, Saudi Barbaria, slaves, Nudge, trees, waiters | Twitter

@nntaleb Coincidentally… What he means by “Greek” literature is … things for intellectuals. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1034835323384197120   Permalink 3:10 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) People don’t realize the more severe problem is not absence of replication, rather the reduction of EFFECT for those that replicated. If you lower effect by ½, the odds of being observed in REAL LIFE decreases nonlinearly. From 2 sigmas to 1 sigma, down by 86%. Permalink 12:50 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@broketrout Just seeing this book title gave me nightmares.. pic.twitter.com/sNuLpVem2Q Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Academics think in very low-resolution digital while humans see things in analog. Permalink 12:18 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@originalgibby Replication of findings in @sciencemagazine and @nature slightly better than a coin flip. Once again @nntaleb is correct. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/08/27/researchers-replicate-just-13-of-21-social-science-experiments-published-in-top-journals/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bb6f15ba4889   Permalink 11:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The REPLICATION CRISIS a VINDICATION for citizens SICK & TIRED of the Harvards w/a sense of entitlement treating practitioners as immature pple lost without their “science” when it is STATISTICALLY shown Harvards are no better than Ms Bré, fortune teller. pic.twitter.com/TJAZ41AAbT Permalink 8:18 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude. Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by…. 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted. pic.twitter.com/xK2rVp8AL6 Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) We now have to face the fact that what is called “social science” and “evidence based” is scientifically shown to be equivalent to “bullshit vending”. Except less elegant, of course. Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1034130885711417345   Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald 1/ In the wake of the @NewYorker profile, several people recommended I look at the ugly 2003 hit piece that magazine did on Chomsky (on the even of the Iraq War) & 2008 attack on Naomi Klein after “Shock Doctrine.” It is striking how they use the same expel-from-mainstream script pic.twitter.com/rr1BKBa5JJ Permalink 5:55 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What happens to post-Monsanto shills? Predictably, they will do #shameless propaganda elsewhere. “Glyphosate Mark” @mark_lynas seems to have reconverted to promotion of… AlQaeda, helping propagandist @Charles_Lister do #pedophrasty w/fake pictures of dead children in Syria. Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking nitpickers on “Gabish”. “Gabish” is to “Capisce” what “Gabagool” is to “Capicola”, what “Brozhut” is to “Prosciuto”, what “Avangool” is to [YOU FIGURE IT OUT]… Gabish? Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Free speech is something unconditional BY DEFINITION, not something reserved to what your ears enjoy hearing. Gabish? Permalink 7:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get what a utility means. Permalink 6:58 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If someone told me 10 years ago that 1) The White House would be fighting CENSORSHIP by the media (not the other way around, while 2) The media accuses the White House of fascism, I would have called an ambulance. https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/protect-free-speech-digital-public-square-0   Permalink 6:13 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The label “left” is a better disguise for the war machine/weapon makers. Hence the militaristic pseudo-left sills … https://twitter.com/brankomilan/status/1034296370155466753   Permalink 2:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Iosif @iosif_lazaridis is part of a group that is revolutionizing history/archeology, putting them on FIRM scientific grounds, using potent statistics/combinatorics. Yes, indeed we can tell population migrations with a 10^-10 error rate. Thank you, Iosif & ignore journos. https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1034509740729098242   Permalink 12:11 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Propaganda Times (formerly kn0wn as NYT) article misses that those who can’t do can’t do for a reason, an epistemological reason: they often know the wrong things. So we make pple who know the wrong things teach the wrong things for the sake of “pedagogy”. This is fraud. Permalink 11:42 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Traditionally those “communicators” good at explaining are the charlatans, BS Vendors… https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52   Permalink 10:19 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The NYT vs #SkinInTheGame. It is very dangerous to favor those good at explaining but not understanding over people good at understanding but not explaining. pic.twitter.com/k6IIt6Btvp Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I can vouch from Skin in THAT Game. https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/1034476469483970561   Permalink 9:25 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nonvegetarian nongymmachines nonmillennial nonjournalists nonwhitecollarsalarymen nonactors weightlifters have wide waists. Gabish? #Lindy pic.twitter.com/bqvRFXYBO3 Permalink 7:34 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Someone needs to explain to the illustrator of @black_swan_man that nonvegetarian non-teenage non-gym-machines weightlifters have wide waists. (next tweet) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1034193426126909441   Permalink 7:30 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb will like this: Eugenio Montale’s via negativa. https://twitter.com/FPanunzi/status/1034436182271246336   Permalink 6:49 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Actually most of it was done on Dec 31, 1999, about the best books of the 20th C. Things change… Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Either Jaffer needs an alibi to be in NY or we are doing something right @financequant https://twitter.com/jaffer22915438/status/1034163318511071233   Permalink 4:05 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This was lifted from comments I made 10 years ago about 20th C novels. Of course the real thing (Dostoyevski) will be missing… Permalink 3:30 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books https://www.nuggetsofthought.com/2018/08/22/taleb-literature-books   Permalink 2:53 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid NOT ONLY CAUSALITIES BUT ALSO ASSOCIATIONS ARE HARD IN SOCIAL SCIENCES Ioannidis author of “Why Most Published Research Finding (in medicine) Are False” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16060722   just published a paper https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2698337   showing that the nutritional field need radical reform. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qVnSHTEfrM”>  pic.twitter.com/qVnSHTEfrM Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal. Permalink 5:32 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn’t even have a variance, steep power law. pic.twitter.com/jdofe7ERRJ Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law. #SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology… or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin… https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1033393663450259459   Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Wars… https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1033735711441092608   Permalink 3:07 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 5) What inspired the Greek/Roman metaphor is the incident when Cato expelled Greek philosophers & rhetors from Rome. Cato was fiercely anti-BS… (from Fooled by Randomness) pic.twitter.com/lfB2br1XgO Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) Discussion of “Roman” vs “Greek” in #Antifragile based on optionality, which is of course NOT LITERAL & unconditional but a general metaphor: In general, Romans were conscious of 2nd order effects all across, despised theory, tawkers, & vapid philosophising. pic.twitter.com/56sO6o7Nwd Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today. #Antifragile: how academics lie abt role of theory: they WRITE history. pic.twitter.com/ZedV2lneL8 Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1)PSYCHO-BS In #Antifragile: I was convinced that the theory that money does *not* bring happiness (beyond a level) was bogus in spite of the “evidence”: psychologists of happiness like $$ & Lindy effect. Turned out that research was psycho-BS, doesn’t replicate #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/84kvvoMrtS Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams The “antiwar” opposition to the war machine. And no one will admit that we are a one-party state… https://twitter.com/timand2037/status/1033565189814112256   Permalink 9:07 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BTW, Byzantines were diehard Roman. Greek was just a language. Permalink 2:49 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The real difference in politics isn’t the “right” vs “left” gradation but rather “Greek” vs “Roman”. + Greek = puts theory above practice + Roman= puts practice above theory Be Roman. Now. Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Using factorials (simpler) pic.twitter.com/fj2r70bPCH Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Steps on how Stirling was used for solution pic.twitter.com/adIh0e8HP3 Permalink 10:21 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb OK, Saturday workout in remembrance of @CutTheKnotMath but not sure Maestro was crazy about gamma functions. cc: @SvetlanaBogom13 pic.twitter.com/mgZvKpHhgS Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb In the absence of @CutTheKnotMath, a Saturday morning workout he would have liked (from Dan Sitaru). pic.twitter.com/dSVv2jH6V5 Permalink 5:32 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/MWD0SCAJME Permalink 5:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb εἶπεν δέ Ἀμὴν λέγω ὑμῖν ὅτι οὐδεὶς προφήτης δεκτός ἐστιν ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ. https://twitter.com/faleflix/status/1033086428442488833   Permalink 4:38 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Thanks @RonPaul. You are a real world superhero. In the Black Swan Man comic, what should your super powers be? https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1033074963568357376   Permalink 1:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan man fighting central banksters and the enemies of Satoshi. …but can someone explain to the cartoonist weightlifters have wider waists? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1033004379962580992   Permalink 8:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb New Title: The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails becomes Real-World Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails pic.twitter.com/eHe6svaha2 Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@ban_kanj No, this isn’t the Amalfi coast.. it’s Southern Lebanon #Naquoura #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/7XqDXMdT9k Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto has commonalities w/Theranos & Madoff, court papers show Made claims from SAFETY studies they NEVER did Lobbied, bullied regulators by infiltrating the system Owned “science” journalists & “rational” crowd Smear campaigns ag scientists (yours truly), ruining careers https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1032633507003158528   Permalink 6:19 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The good news: Forbes & Project Syndicate fired Monsanto shill @henryimiller & removed all past articles. But I cannot believe some journos like Tamar Haspel known to be colluding with Monsanto are still writing in newspapers like @washingtonpost https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1032962224820834306   Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams How sick that Obama decided to let crazed, head-chopping jihadists loose on these good Christian people. And how sad that Trump is too blind to see what’s really going on in Syria. There will be hell to pay for the murder of these innocents. Literally. https://twitter.com/iraqschristians/status/1032746441104674817   Permalink 6:15 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@MccluskyMark People seem to get it, even if their spelling is a little phunny. pic.twitter.com/2LGriWAfOK Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@restoration_x Taleb has discussed and developed Pareto a great deal. Perhaps it is no coincidence that they even ook remarkably similar. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964450061164965888?s=19   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/isefixKgyQ”>  pic.twitter.com/isefixKgyQ Permalink 1:11 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a society where people complain about lawyers than one in which they don’t. https://twitter.com/societalruin/status/1032638737073598464   Permalink 7:52 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) For instance Monsanto’s Eric Sachs @ericsachsPhD who was behind the smear campaign against us & others (collusion with fake journo @keithkloor & Co), retired after the merger. But I will make sure he & others pay some stiff penalty at some point in the rest of their lives. Permalink 7:48 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) From what I understand about mergers, former Monsanto executives can be easily sued by Bayer for stuff they did not disclose or for past malpractice. And I am certain Bayer wasn’t aware of the stuff revealed by court papers. Permalink 7:39 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The beginning of the end… https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/1032632886627721216   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Enfin, la France… https://journal.lepoint.fr/comment-vous-n-avez-pas-encore-lu-taleb-2244655   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xajDMhBge2″>  pic.twitter.com/xajDMhBge2 Permalink 5:58 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Solution pic.twitter.com/UpJQs9Jbw1 Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That was quick. The idea of #skininthegame made it to Homeland Security… https://twitter.com/CodeDotGov/status/1025158440522534912   Permalink 5:13 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@maalaukong I still can’t believe I had the gut to train barbell when no doctors and people around me would advise me do that. But I read Antifragile -and after lifting for months I am fine now still thank you Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Morning Quiz. From Dan Sitaru/Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/kSk0ceHTxr Permalink 4:45 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Helenus: on the difference between engineering and reverse engineering. History is HARDER than it seems. pic.twitter.com/tmcfnwqtaz Permalink 2:51 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The story of Helenus @MarkAnthonySPQR as an illustration of the difference between forward and backward equation https://twitter.com/MarkAnthonySPQR/status/1032360191449346048   Permalink 2:49 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Really important work on reporting and citation bias effects on treatment for depression. And there is more not included. ht @nilskappelmann @nntaleb https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/psychological-medicine/article/cumulative-effect-of-reporting-and-citation-biases-on-the-apparent-efficacy-of-treatments-the-case-of-depression/71D73CADE32C0D3D996DABEA3FCDBF57#fndtn-information   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tMOD00CvTZ”>  pic.twitter.com/tMOD00CvTZ Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stefan Gasic @NonMeek summarizes my new book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails (Technical Incerto, Vol 1) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/TECHNICAL_INCERTO_VOL_1_THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/RB7ZwdFPKL”>  pic.twitter.com/RB7ZwdFPKL Permalink 8:28 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Bitte schön. Otherwise okay? pic.twitter.com/Z0FKDX8I3s Permalink 8:13 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) Something tactical that Netanyahu is starting to get but Donaldo (& predecessors) never figured out: if you HELP the population w/something practical, makes it more favorable to you. Netanyahu is offering Iranians solutions for their water problems… https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb As a matter of fact sanctions in Iran (by removing market forces) benefit the rent-seeking circles close to the regime, and hurt those they purport to save from said regime… Something about the lack of mental clarity on the part of bureaucrats. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Maybe… but one thing for sure; @mikeduncan has shown solid evidence of shoddy & unreliable intellectual behavior. And history requires intellectual integrity. https://twitter.com/mikeduncan/status/1031821137003601920   Permalink 5:27 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, sanctions have worked only ONCE in history: S. Africa (even then, unsure). They punish the weak in populations: Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Iran … those you yourself identify as victims of regimes. They thwart commerce that brings peace. Highly unrigorous DC IYI thinking. https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/1032235948946411523   Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Eh, ma3ak 7a22: https://youtu.be/5ejHYQ4ihgI   Permalink 4:14 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Reminds me of a certain book… https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1031959292683804673   Permalink 1:43 PM – 21 Aug 2018

@InsperLiber A partir da análise da obra de Nassim Taleb, Ariel Bozza aborda o delicado problema das minorias intolerantes. Link na bio! #taleb #economia #política #filosofia #ensaio #minorityrule #eleicoes2018 #religião #liberdade #liderança pic.twitter.com/K4UBXd08D6 Permalink 8:51 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now the news is that they may not have beheaded her “YET”. No difference. Permalink 8:13 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@Mat_Heart “Ceterum censeo saudi barbariam esse delendam.” Talebus Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Interesting how Saudi shills think they can make you can believe one furthers US security interests by beheading Shiite women who complain abt gov. treatment. From experience w/Monsanto & Saudi Barbatian shills, e.g. @dietwaldclaus: it’s the last resort job for the total loser. pic.twitter.com/A72dJHXefl Permalink 7:07 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria, not Saudi Arabia. Delenda Saudi Barbaria. https://twitter.com/financequant/status/1031894836784316420   Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The style… pic.twitter.com/O08Fba1m8l Permalink 4:18 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I just bought San-Antonio, tome 8 : Bravo, docteur Béru ! ; Viva Bertaga ! ; Un éléphant ça trompe ; Faut… @AbeBooks https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=22650467109&cm_ven=Twitter&cm_cat=TYShare&cm_pla=link&cm_ite=TYShare   Permalink 4:02 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@OZmandia @TuckerGoodrich and @gillespi Have been shouting from the rooftops the dangers of Seed Oils for yonks! Maybe @nntaleb comment will bring it home: https://breaknutrition.com/omega-6-fatty-acids-alternative-hypothesis-diseases-civilization/   SEED OILS ARE A SCAM ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/whTSNtQufd”>  pic.twitter.com/whTSNtQufd Permalink 4:05 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It is also BIGOTRY to replace male privilege by the female one. https://twitter.com/CHSommers/status/1031598245024342017   Permalink 12:17 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) This plus the arrival of the “J” later in the Bronze age explains why the Levant has a mitocondrial DNA much closer to Northern Europe: Lebanon closer to France than to Cyprus. pic.twitter.com/TseQESh6v8 Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Which vindicates the theory that 1) Ashkenazis’ light eyes don’t not come from “Khazars” or as per some other half-baked theory, but from the original population 2) the 20% light eyes found in Lebanon/North Syria don’t come from crusaders, but are largely indigenous https://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/1031602205869133824   Permalink 11:39 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If and only If the Markov Chain is ergodic. cc:@yaneerbaryam @ole_b_peters https://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/1031606215179157504   Permalink 11:28 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Influent BS vendors lose their influence the minute they close their mouth or put their pen to rest. Just a tiny bit of silence and they are gone. Permalink 10:38 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb But you only get the tail for a function by avoiding sigmoidal transformations https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/976107986736181249   Permalink 8:09 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My favorite @NonMeek cartoon by far: “The difference between absence of evidence and evidence of absence is at least 50 IQ points” https://twitter.com/NonMeek/status/1014559700137009152   Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Polygenic predictors have a humongous error rate. https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1031188182849732609   Permalink 6:47 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Add to the category: ‘LIFE CHANGING OPPORTUNITY’ https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1031524764215648256   Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The next uncovered scam will be seed oil, particularly corn oil, which has been passing for “healthy” w/o evidence nor time tested uses, nor any direct evidence it is healthier than butter. Instead of high carb/low carb, consider: w/ or w/o seed oil, grains … cc: @Mangan150 Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 500 years, @KenDBerryMD, but good enough. https://twitter.com/KenDBerryMD/status/1031525228021784577   Permalink 6:01 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships (by @financequant & myself) are available for the 9th program Oct 22-26, in NY. We have been giving on average 5 women scholarships & 5 general ones. http://www.realworldrisk.com   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/987695856060174336   Permalink 5:54 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is what @spyrosmakrid seems to be telling us: #ML doesn’t get the tails because nobody can get the tails from past data. https://twitter.com/yjoshi/status/1031491335394607104   Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Eisen has been supporting Monsanto & the GMO BS. Worse: Plos-1 withdrew an Op-Ed by @thackerpd under pressure from Monsanto. Permalink 3:58 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Trishank @trishankkarthik summarized the tawk in a series of tweets: just note that I prefaced (par.) “as a scholar I don’t want to a good speaker, good speakers are usually charlatans” https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1030844991470489600   Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I mean Corneille Permalink 1:23 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My lecktchur on #skininthegame: No guts no glory, no risk no victory, adapted from Racine: ” A vaincre sans péril on triomphe sans gloire”, itself adapted from Seneca: Ignominiam iudicat gladiator cum inferiore componi et scit eum sine gloria uinci qui sine periculo uincitur… pic.twitter.com/tyzG8dSoc6 Permalink 1:01 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Two heuristics for nonergodicity @nntaleb @ole_b_peters https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1031216346095386624   Permalink 9:30 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Traditionally, learned pple & erudites have voiced contempt for the half-read or semi-learned, such as journo @JonahNRO, never for the non-read person of action. Semi-learned pple s.a. Goldberg resemble cars with two wheels missing. You are much better off walking. https://twitter.com/JonahNRO/status/1031157357991092224   Permalink 8:32 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Skin in the game in Lebanese proverbs: bil 7ikam l-Lébnéniyyé: + Ma bi7ékkak illa difrak + S2al mjarréb wla tes2al 7akim + Ghaltét l-shater 2alf ghalta (shater hown = “khabir”) + Kill shi rkhis ghalé + Iza ma kébrét ma-zéghrét (nonlinearity) Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Here is @Michael_Spagat, @sapinker’s support, pestering us for data in order to find “flaws”… doesn’t understand the stochasticity of sample correlation, which inspired this talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&frags=pl%2Cwn   Permalink 5:53 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) There is something green about “quant” @Michael_Spagat and this paper (cont) https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1029092945088131072   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Addition https://twitter.com/ionlyshort/status/1031131593748959232   Permalink 4:56 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nice to meet twitter friends in person https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1030878532891815936   Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of antiwar people in DC… pic.twitter.com/uzXh7vIvUF Permalink 10:17 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb at #RonPaul! pic.twitter.com/xc1MfQvoxJ Permalink 8:52 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald Almost 100,000 people re-tweeted @JohnBrennan moronically & recklessly accusing Trump of *treason* for his Helsinki press conference, only for him now to casually admit it wasn’t & deny he said it. Brennan is a pathological liar, a torture advocate, a killer & a #Resistance icon: https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1030842945333805056   Permalink 8:49 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia9 @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb (I don’t like to see my own books in ky library) Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Unfortunately, in my own house, I can’t display my own books… https://twitter.com/larsgrossmith/status/1030502501089390592   Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally! The Black Swan man is about Bitcoin. (still that waist is that of a dance instructor) https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1030414802928263168   Permalink 7:52 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Dynamics of Complex Systems pages 131-2: Time histories of stochastic dynamical systems (Surprise: they are equivalent to equilibrium ensembles, but unusual ones). pic.twitter.com/lASoDK0LmO Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Bayer: investors coming out of denial, slowly realizing that GMOs are the scam of the century. pic.twitter.com/z4eQHBGFR6 Permalink 3:47 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid ML METHODS AND FORECASTING Two interesting reports discuss AI/ML and their relevance to real life problems https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/why-we-need-to-think-differently-about-ai?utm_medium=email&utm_source=topic+optin&utm_campaign=awareness&utm_content=20180813+ai+nl&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpZME5EWmxOV1UwTURKbSIsInQiOiJ0cnRsZkgrdzBsZk93dkpSXC9ZWXdNendLQVRQQzQzRXp2OEsxbkFBOUZCVnpKdkdGK3h3UUNteTE1aE5OQWdxcEJqUVJ1c3MzeUV1SHFzM3ZxOEVPM21VOG5RRFlrcXNTZzdDSTNJVytYcUFcL2c0YXVVVStnK1pSZGtydGxNdzlvIn0%3D   https://www.stateof.ai/   These reports confirm our papers about the poor performance of ML models http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018300785   Permalink 1:03 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb While Monsanto can lobby in DC, bully, soft-bribe & manipulate regulators, and intimidate & smears scientists (like yours truly), Bayer as a foreign-owned corporation can’t easily do so. Bayer lost ~20% since the Monsanto trial (another 4% today). pic.twitter.com/JqLLX7L8Gg Permalink 12:47 PM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If, in some wealthy communities, you run into people who look like cousins, it is more probable that they use the same plastic surgeon. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Some mathematics behind the simulation. pic.twitter.com/6CHV2V8hD5 Permalink 10:17 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mathematical Finance Du Jour. Where I show how a power law mimics stochastic volatility. pic.twitter.com/h4GjdYlsHW Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@RobertKennedyJr Wow! #Monsanto loses another court case over its widely used weed killer. #MonsantoTrial https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Monsanto-loses-another-court-case-over-its-widely-13159459.php   Permalink 9:06 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Does someone have data on the longevity of airline pilots (jet engine). We have data for flight attendants & radiation therapists, but pilots have 1) lower load, 2) aren’t allowed to take sleeping pills. cc:@Mangan150 @GuruAnaerobic @MichaelSagnerMD https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1011244554622676992   Permalink 7:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb During Roman times, children’s educators were usually slaves. Nothing has changed. The principal thing a slave can teach children is how to not be free and make the best of it. In other words, how to think like a slave. Gabish? https://twitter.com/MatthewAckerman/status/1030083875756814336   Permalink 6:34 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Getting ready to go to the city with the highest density of rent seekers, to deliver a lecktchur on hidden rent seeking & the effect on systemic risk. Will also talk about regulatory recapture: Monsanto owns the EPA/FDA but NOT the court system; how common law is robust. https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1022942029184163841   Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb There is something irremediably sad at an atheist’s funeral. Permalink 5:13 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And no, most humans do NOT want to be liberated from monotonous tasks, except for (parts of) the weekend. Most want the soothing predictability of a schedule, even those who call themselves “adventurers”. Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Routine is effortless. Most humans, alas, prefer to expend physical, never intellectual energy. Creating requires much, much more effort. https://twitter.com/jackdcowling/status/1030058263193300993   Permalink 4:55 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The boss: Antonio. pic.twitter.com/TzSBNrRoZV Permalink 5:07 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid Ink, finally. California looks Mediterranean, ma non è la cosa reale. Nova York looks nonMed, but it’s just an accident of geography. pic.twitter.com/6ZV8h18Xqt Permalink 5:01 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@The_Cyrenian While the ignorant masses were busy watching Obama dance on Ellen and crack jokes on Jimmy Fallon, my fellow Syrian Christians and I were suffering at the hands of #Obama and #Hillary’s genocidal foreign-policy: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/world/middleeast/syria-isis-assyrian-christians.html   Permalink 1:42 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The counter coup-d’etat is completed. https://www.rt.com/usa/436054-trump-revokes-cia-brennan-clearance/   Permalink 1:25 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Any work you do in the comfort of a routine risks being taken over by a robot. Permalink 12:30 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The answer to Maestro Bogomolny who has time to critique it in Heaven: Finally found the probabilistic interpretation: the Cantelli bound. pic.twitter.com/5iFOE4yuiO Permalink 10:44 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole, nobody ever broke a mafia & rent-seeking clubs by being “generous and kind”! Nudgeboys Thaler & Sunstein feel entitled to manipulate citizens, increasing tail risk! Sunstein wants to prevent citizens from knowing if food has GMOs When you go, go for the jugular! Permalink 10:13 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@DrMichaelBonner I owe all my academic success to the squat and the deadlift: https://twitter.com/FrontiersIn/status/1006064896453349376   Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’m out of here. pic.twitter.com/jTGwJ95HEt Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity. Permalink 5:00 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Computational irreducibility: by @stephen_wolfram , explains why the consequences of some stuff like GMOs cannot be understood the way Monsanto claims… https://twitter.com/complexity_labs/status/1029110374937911296   Permalink 9:13 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And (aggressively) vegetarian. Permalink 8:21 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb San Francisco: tatooed millennials with the wrong type of attitude problem, overcrowding in overpriced tenements. Permalink 7:44 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@Decafquest “As for scholars, I respect their labour and have drawn great benefits from it, but the fact is that at the banquet of philosophy they are neither the cooks nor the gourmets but the waiters that run between the two.” – Bryan Magee #skininthegame #philosophy #academia Permalink 2:27 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@GMWatch Corruption of science by the agrochemical industry: #Monsanto flooded scientific journals with ghostwritten articles https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/latest-news/18408-the-monsanto-papers-poisoning-the-scientific-well   New peer-reviewed source details Monsanto’s deceptive activities ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/W6QaY06ZdB”>  pic.twitter.com/W6QaY06ZdB Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb At the core of what pple are not getting (from @ole_b_peters expl.) is that making $110 vs losing $100 with 50% probability is not a state-space issue, but part of a sequential procedure dynamically repeated over time, with required edge (here $5) changing as one makes or loses. Permalink 5:41 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR “mni7” in Lebanese, meaning “fine”, does not seem to come from the Arabic المَنْحُ: العطاء (grant), rather from from the Aramaic “peaceful”,”content”, Heb מָנוֹחַ (unless I am mistaken, cc:@Jonassibony ) pic.twitter.com/cGqIxhSpAn Permalink 11:30 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The powerful thing about this inequality is that, for finite samples Xs= {X_1, X_2,…,X_n}, w/average m, n odd (for small samples) and Xi copies of X drawn from ANY probability distribution in R, not even IID, E((Xs-m)^2)>Median(Xs)^2, even if all moments of X are infinite! Permalink 7:23 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally started a math “blog”. There are incomplete problems by @CutTheKnotMath. cc:@SvetlanaBogom13, @gcfr20, @mikeandallie, @long, @octonion, etc. https://fattailsandotherissues.wordpress.com/2018/08/13/maestro-bogomolnys-last-quiz/   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Where some aspects of the point are fleshed out https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 4:32 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why Nudge and Behavioral Economics are PseudoScience, a summary pic.twitter.com/oMkd1IMQq4 Permalink 4:28 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole Peters quietly informing nudgeboy @R_Thaler that his understanding of his own subject matter (probabilistic decision making) is highly deficient. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1028916116507246593   Permalink 4:08 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mr @teppofelin, one never debates a bulls***ter. Permalink 4:50 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@primalpoly We’re recruiting subjects aged 18+ for a psychology study on religious art. It’s an online survey that takes about 45 minutes. It includes ratings and memory tests for about 90 religious images. If interested, please go to https://esurvey.unm.edu/opinio/s?s=93060   Permalink 4:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb About 6 y ago, a B-School prof, @teppofelin, BS vendor type, couldn’t get #Antifragile & was nasty about it. He was teaching “entrepreneurship” while being on a salary. Academics don’t notice these things. Permalink 4:00 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You are more likely to change your mind from a bad argument from someone on your initial side than a good argument from someone on the other side. Permalink 2:28 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@Lentejitas These are some of @nntaleb’s Black Swans ;-) Have a good night! pic.twitter.com/PBhoPBkwl9 Permalink 1:29 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb For some reason B-School Profs (living on charities) think they are smarter (less “irrational”) than real world risk takers when they are clueless about the math (ergodicity+fat tails). Flaws by finance prof (@WGoetzmann) who think TBS is an “airport book” pic.twitter.com/ilxSy4GqEx Permalink 12:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Next step: Business Schools; ban teaching by nonpractitioners. https://twitter.com/doshijatin/status/1028689718140174336   Permalink 11:20 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@EdLatimore “Ironically, by being beggars, they had the equivalent of ‘f*** you money’, which we can more easily get by being at the lowest rung than by joining the income-dependent classes.” @nntaleb, Skin in The Game Permalink 8:30 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Posted TECHNICAL INCERTO, VOL 1: THE STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS (~300 pages) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/TECHNICAL_INCERTO_VOL_1_THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS?s=t   via @academia Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Our planet has many more trees than 35 years ago! Looks like people notice deforestation, but not reforestation. Media & UN reports by self serving bureaucrats who want to “solve” your problems. ALWAYS get stuff by systematic analysis, NEVER piecemeal observations. pic.twitter.com/6a8uEj7iPM Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Localism ≠ Nationalism @nntaleb L maxalliye ≠ l çawmiyye https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1002949896209600512   Permalink 2:39 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@KenDBerryMD Retweet if you think we need Nassim Taleb to help us straighten out medical/nutrition research!!! Permalink 6:43 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I am very rude to *high status* people who are rude to waiters/waitresses. Usually twice as rude. Sometimes three times, just to make sure. You cannot believe how many pple on the “left” are rude to waiters, as they feel their “mission” insulates them from humans #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/MsBlaireWhite/status/1027976344569704448   Permalink 12:15 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Çahammiyet l kitébé bel lebnéné, video la Nassim Taleb: #lebanese #lebnene https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI   Permalink 10:58 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 10… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ludicfallacy #antifragile #infinitegames #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/vIMigj3S05 Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That’s next https://twitter.com/ocrashad/status/1028323587092930560?s=21   Permalink 10:07 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/gmwatch/status/1028316002415792128?s=21   Permalink 10:05 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@M_Gauche “We define “rude” less by the words used than by the status of the recipient.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:21 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You lower *regulatory recapture* by having fewer regulations (as w/medication: only when the court/tort system doesn’t help). Put skin into the game of corporations. ( Pple hearing my shouts when the news hit wondered what soccer game I was following) https://twitter.com/WaqasHaque411/status/1028266120648843264   Permalink 6:42 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@JohnMinehan1 Which is Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s point . . . . https://twitter.com/2peterharris/status/1028235466036969472   Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@Decafquest ma2al zghir katabto 3an 2este3mel l lebnene ka legha maktoobe. Shu ra2yak? @nntaleb #lebanese #lebanon #lebnene https://medium.com/@mahmoud.rasmi/bel-lebnene-5cc091b0c9fc   Permalink 4:12 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This nightmare “Chased by Monsanto” (from @black_swan_man) is over. Now time for payback. I mean find the *individuals* involved. pic.twitter.com/cAQPK3KEN0 Permalink 3:20 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Sweet victory…. It is particularly powerful that the legal system (torts) protects citizens, while regulators are in collusion w/industry: the EPA/FDA let Monsanto ghostwrite their rules. Regulators are bribed by industry as they get hired later as payback. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 5:55 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb They didn’t just lose a case. They lost another 100. Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU. Permalink 3:29 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb CHAMPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGNE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Monsanto lost the trial. It is not about Glyphosate. It’s that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay! https://twitter.com/careygillam/status/1028039905471950849   Permalink 3:26 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@OpenSecretsDC OpenSecrets searchable ‘Foreign Lobby Watch’ database makes it easier than ever to browse through disclosures related to foreign influence in the US: http://crp.org/faraw   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/B2dLWFBz6t”>  pic.twitter.com/B2dLWFBz6t Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@PenguinVerlag In welcher Welt leben wir – was meint ihr? @nntaleb verrät uns seine Sicht in »Das Risiko und sein Preis«. Ab 27.08. erhältlich: http://bit.ly/DasRisikoundseinPreis   #SkinintheGame ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/HoHIHr28uq”>  pic.twitter.com/HoHIHr28uq Permalink 6:17 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@alessabocchi Can someone check if the NYT has recently taken any funds from Saudi Arabia? https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1027585342029918213   Permalink 1:41 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@georgemacgill Today I Learnt: WITTGENSTEIN’S RULER Don’t just use your beliefs to measure reality, but also use reality to measure your beliefs. If the IDIOT keeps getting it right, it might not be them who is the idiot @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/zQPHIH2Oc3 Permalink 12:38 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What Saudi Barbaria is doing to Canada is simple signaling: to show other states what’s in store if they criticize their human rights. The problem of course … Permalink 11:37 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You may use his Lebanese dictionary and write in social media script (3al 3adé). My opinion is that an Ataturk style precise top-down alphabet is not necessary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ejHYQ4ihgI&t=3s&frags=pl%2Cwn   Permalink 11:06 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@holland_tom I remember in the summer of 2014 the eyes of the world being so fixed on Gaza – where, brutal though the conflict was, no genocide was remotely being attempted – that it pretty much ignored Sinjar, where the Yazidis were absolutely the targets of genocide. https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1027438325769101319   Permalink 9:47 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So effectively, thanks to Roger Makhluf, Lebanese ceased to be a dialect on Aug 8, 2018. Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@UnSubtleDesi [Archives] Economists bullshit for a living : ⁦@nntaleb⁩ gives Kaushik Basu a lesson on ‘Skin in the Game’ http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/economists-bullshit-for-a-living-nn-taleb-gives-kaushik-basu-a-lesson-on-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 8:29 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally, A Lebanese-English dictionary/Lexicon. 630 pages! (Arabists won’t like it) https://www.amazon.com/Lebanese-English-Lexicon-Rojee-Makluuf-ebook/dp/B07G9PJTQ2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1533825238&sr=8-1&keywords=Rojee+makluuf&dpID=31gqiw2AeiL&preST=_SY445_QL70_&dpSrc=srch   Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@baielala “Almost all those caught making a logical fallacy interpret it as a ‘disagreement’.” – @nntaleb https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIODdHYl95d1dWNE0/edit   Permalink 7:25 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system. Permalink 5:34 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The NYT needs to sell more and more subscriptions to stay in the same place. Concave growth. (The rise in stock price was largely due to the maahket’s.) Indeed, this is a dying business. Unethical journalism doesn’t pay. pic.twitter.com/n0a50DQ0LP Permalink 4:14 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Financial Maahkets aren’t fooled by the NYT “growth” story: + Close to saturation for digital subscriptions ~(40% from crossword puzzles!), now < logarithmic. + Rev. growth is not good. Ain’t a tech company! + The “Anti-Trump” strategy deligitimizes long term. https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1027181710419607558   Permalink 3:31 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Here’s my contribution to this thread. As a cartoonist my main challenge is to simplify any issue as much as possible without losing any of the meaning. I hope I succeeded in that with this comic strip. #LifeExpectancy #Math pic.twitter.com/aut5o1o46k Permalink 3:21 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do. https://twitter.com/scottlucas_ea/status/1027304494680432641   Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do. https://twitter.com/ScottLucas_EA/status/1027304494680432641   Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@nntaleb When your company is public you become the slave/depend on the opinion of the most clueless but vocal journalist, say @BretStephensNYT. No matter how rich, you never have f*** you money. Go private; f*** them. https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1026912973120462848   Permalink 9:06 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The point as presented 20 year ago in Fooled by Randomness. pic.twitter.com/kEupc0Emn0 Permalink 1:10 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the offending statement. It is not whether the number is true or false, it is that the REASONING is false. pic.twitter.com/AXRb2kA9pg Permalink 12:31 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The correct (evolutionary) way to see what happens is: +Life expectancy while reaching full (socially accepted) reproductive age, i.e. ~15-25. Which will be much higher: In the previous example it would be 67. So childhood mortality removed 27 years of “average” life exp! Permalink 12:14 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Simply, if 40% died in childbirth (or very young, which is about historical number), 50% died at 60, and 10% died at 92, the “average” life expectation would be ~40. Childhood mortalily hugely skews the average. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Thread of pple on twitter who understand statistics (and the notion of average) much much better than the @nytimes : life expectancy = 40 means a lot of infant mortality, not that people didn’t live long. Please, please, please avoid the NY Times. Please. https://twitter.com/owenezell/status/1026789999629484033   Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3500 years of Phoenician wine pic.twitter.com/U2ZMQY3wsm Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now a disclaimer: one greatgrandmother and one great great grandmother are from Douma. (Douma is Greek Orthodox/Melkite) Permalink 4:52 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The surrounding gorges. Douma’s advantage is that it is out of the way and on the local top of a mountain; no ski no nonsense. pic.twitter.com/2937ddCftZ Permalink 4:24 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Tomb ~ 600 (priest of the goddess of health) pic.twitter.com/GKFFVviKHA Permalink 3:28 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Douma, most beautiful village both architecturally and scenically. Former Byzantine health spot. Church built in 1610. pic.twitter.com/DvMve2Gj7v Permalink 3:23 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out the main beneficiaries of fossil fuel were the trees: people used to log for cooking/heating. At least until now. Permalink 11:26 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Even if one accepts risk aversion, it doesn’t work the way nudgeboy @R_Thaler thinks it does. pic.twitter.com/Swdu4yUnV9 Permalink 11:16 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The vicious thing in @josephinequinn’s Vox article is that she doesn’t flatly deny that Phoenicians existed; she just packages her anachronistic argument (absence of passport & flag-style national “identity”) to make you believe that they never existed. Shoddy. Permalink 2:31 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb More than 5,500 years https://twitter.com/richmcgaha/status/1026547483462139904   Permalink 12:57 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cartoonist understands my language ( “myopic bureaucrat imbeciles” ) but doesn’t get that a thin waist is not for weightlifters. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1026297804648525826   Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@sidpathak92 What a Saudi govt handle tweeted before deleting. But sure it is the Persians who are the enemy. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/i7VCgqeWfU Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@RogerCremades How do #rigidity traps work in #socio-#ecological #systems? Amazingly, this comics explains it with pristine clarity. I congratulate @black_swan_man & @nntaleb. More on rigidity traps, the #adaptivecycle, risks, insurance and climate change here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0044-2.epdf?author_access_token=ba94udDKN3bSyWKsBb_MotRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PqLfoL8EXoMy7UUI3hBF7YmO2O68NxhD7gHhYj07eiUujlnPShfbXLDBBFLWmtEilUAjHdpztO6tX-E8oMp4VMjRrrbhToNEIA4yRz0mpXcg%3D%3D   https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1026297804648525826   Permalink 7:11 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@thackerpd Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as Invasive Species http://www.aiscience.org/journal/paperInfo/jepsd?paperId=3925   You’ll never see any #GMO promoting journalist discuss this paper, because the only thing they yammer about is “#GMO products are safe to consume, so end of story.” Permalink 5:24 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis happen? This is from my testimony, what Obama’s bureaucrats did not want to report. (Also I withdrew the paper from a journal owing to stupid comments by referee, republished elsewhere) pic.twitter.com/kB6gWX7De5 Permalink 12:39 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out, @realDavidGal has shown, “Risk Aversion” is a fiction. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/why-the-most-important-idea-in-behavioral-decision-making-is-a-fallacy/?sf194849524=1   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/901472828310114304   Permalink 12:26 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@ziadaboujamra @nntaleb The view from Dhour El Choueir yesterday. Green indeed! pic.twitter.com/UpWvZA1YbS Permalink 11:10 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 9… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #yellowstoneeffect #wildfire #endthefed #daoofcapital #antifragile pic.twitter.com/sB6VKLR3Q2 Permalink 7:43 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@SamuelGWalters Alexander Bogomolny liked inequalities, so here is one on his behalf. (I came across it while doing estimate calculations.) @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math #FunFact pic.twitter.com/sICzlqaXwS Permalink 1:53 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of docs written in Phoenician were lost, but a lot of Phoenicians wrote in lingua franca later (Greek) as was the norm in Levant after 3nd Century BC, same as Indians writing in English now. Does it make Josephus count as non Jewish? Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Lack of skin in the game. (Photo taken before heavy deadlifting phase) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nassim-taleb-no-one-who-caused-the-crisis-paid-any-price-vbj2lzc6d   Permalink 12:24 PM – 5 Aug 2018

Jordan Peterson, Blitzer, Gabish, EDUCATION, Monsanto, Daniel Dennet, Cannibalism, Rowling, Romer, Fisk, Douma | Twitter

@davidboxenhorn Skin in the gamehttps://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/989980601653612544   Permalink 3:07 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Basically those who don’t know anything about Syria, like @jordanbpeterson, shd STFU Permalink 2:54 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I think I am completely done with @jordanbpeterson. Gave him the benefit of the doubt with Monsanto and other nonsense. This does it. Meanwhile let’s see what we get from @Rootclaim’s rigorous hypothesis testing.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/989970697966571521   Permalink 2:46 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@VergilDen #Bigoteering and #Pedophrasty in one tweethttps://twitter.com/doechancellor/status/989728932772499457   Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Wolf Blitzer, a despicable man. Very despicable. To him we need to worry that stopping the shelling in Yemen would lead to a loss of jobs in weapons manufacturing.https://twitter.com/IntheNow_tweet/status/989942263563239425   Permalink 1:37 PM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Thanks to Hillarists, the “left” now likes militarism, interventionism, censorship, a police state, and mccarthyism.https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/989888000233533440   Permalink 10:40 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Now, in a modern framework, there is no justification for the asymmetry. Except one needs to stay vigilant abt obsessive weirdos. Permalink 8:35 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@nntaleb DECISION THEORY DUJOUR Very rational to react more to negative than positive comments,for the same reason one shd react more to losses than profits: RUIN AVERSION Someone who hates you can kill you, so in a physical environment the emotiononal asymmetry is good risk management Permalink 8:14 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@KarenSweet9 “When a town holds the remnants of an ancient language, one needs to look for vestiges of an ancient practice.” Wow. @nntaleb nails it #insight #SITG #VCBookClub Permalink 8:12 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@Chad_Urban Those of us @ACBACharleston are trying to change the higher ed paradigm. Thankfully, we’re getting some press recognition too on outlets like @gardenandgun and @ThisOldHouse http://gardenandgun.com/feature/a-class-by-itself/  https://www.thisoldhouse.com/watch/demo-time-charleston-houses-2018   Permalink 6:39 AM – 27 Apr 2018

@jordantpine Great insight from @nntaleb’s #SkinInTheGame: “Reading a history book, without putting its events in perspective, offers a similar bias to reading an account of life in New York seen from an emergency room at Bellevue Hospital.” Permalink 4:52 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I have changed the spelling to Gabish, pronounced halfway between a Semitic qof & a Greek hard “g”. Gabish?https://twitter.com/jd_hoggg/status/989595228486164480   Permalink 3:40 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@MicheKilloran “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment” #SkinInTheGame #SITG #VCBookClub @nntaleb Permalink 2:46 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@thalesians Deeply saddened and shocked by the arrest in Iran of @thalesians founder Paul @bilokon’s @imperialcollege PhD supervisor the prominent computer scientist and mathematician Abbas Edalat. #FreeAbbasEdalat pic.twitter.com/S5g8hrcVbl Permalink 12:36 PM – 26 Apr 2018

@financequant If you come to the Real World Risk Institute, this is one if the insights you will learn. That and why talking about volatility often makes no sense at all.https://twitter.com/datascifact/status/989546588233256960   Permalink 9:53 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Random arithmetic progressions #FigureThat #math #probability pic.twitter.com/9HjaDuR5De Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 10 In #Antifragile I document the confusion Business =>Technology => Science, far far far far more frequent than the reverse. Problem is that academic, not practitioners, write the books. Permalink 8:07 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 9) Remember that the “University” system for this “liberal education” (trivium/quadrivium) was historically closely associated with, and supervised by, the Church. Technical education was left to free thinkers. Permalink 7:00 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 8) The idea that liberal education makes free thinkers is about the greatest myth: empirically, liberal education creates the exact opposite of “thinkers” and “free”: indoctrinated and slaves.https://twitter.com/Plato4Now/status/989487426639990785   Permalink 6:27 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 7) Finally, we can split education: + Taught by nonskininthegame people (math, poetry, etc.) + Taught by skininthegame people (engineering, medicine, belly dancing, plumbing, finance, law, burglarizing, computer “science”, accounting, …) In SEPARATE institutions. Permalink 6:06 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 6) The educational model is now imploding as the only thing people seem to learn at colleges is ideology by losers who became professors because they aren’t good enough to create things & got together to BS in a citation ring #RentSeekers (not just in economics, but everywhere) Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 5b) The French solved the problem with knowledge exams for educators (“aggregation”); you never end up having people judged solely by peers (See #SkininTheGame ). (Same problems: “know economics” is interpreted as knowing theories by economists, not economic facts). Permalink 5:42 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 5a) The problem of the peer review system is selecting professors on theories abt subject never checked for basic knowledge of subject. It is common for people to know the “post colonial gender theory” of Levant, teach it, but never the actual facts. Permalink 5:39 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) So we need to separate “things to learn to be civilized” and “things you learn to do things” with separate institutions. The only overlap I could find was mathematics, though not a strong argument since applied math is a v. different animal. Permalink 5:37 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Anglo-Saxon world conflated the two, with aristocrat-envy: + Education to be civilized. (Literature, philosophy, poetry, abstract math, history, stamp collecting, etc.) + Education to learn to do things. (Engineering, medicine, accounting, law, belly dancing, plumbing) Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) For instance, mathematics as taught for “liberal” education, was theoretical mind exercise. Euclid’s theorem was never used in building. Meanwhile builders (parts of guilds with trade secrets) were using their own heuristic, richer, geometry. (see #Antifragile) Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb EDUCATION. Distilling the conversation with @bryan_caplan hosted by @tylercowen 1) There has been a traditional separation between: + “liberal education” for free men, (liber), who didn’t work for a living, & +”technical education”, for those who labor. Permalink 5:28 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb But @HooverInst has low ethical standarda; it kept @henryimiller who was fired from Forbes for putting articles written by Monsanto— he “wrote” 5 articles smearing me.https://twitter.com/markvirag/status/989467787436453890   Permalink 4:49 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A think tank fellow had the discipline to overcome my insults to his profession while reviewing my book.https://www.city-journal.org/html/ante-15856.html   Permalink 4:25 AM – 26 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain what’s going on? Thanks.https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/989184815340535808   Permalink 1:53 PM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mark Lynas’ typical charlatan responses. His friend Henry I. Miller was fired from Forbes as his comments were written by Monsanto (including attacks on yours truly). Monsanto papers… tons of documents: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/newly-released-monsanto-papers-add-to-questions-of_us_597fc800e4b0d187a5968fbf  https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/989187323211452416   Permalink 10:37 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@financequant If this doesn’t help you understand p-hacking then you’re beyond hope.https://twitter.com/1962Kiser/status/989181933207732224   Permalink 10:20 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If there is such as thing as Monsanto derangement, why did Monsanto send 1200 letters after my PP paper? Why does Monsanto fund smear campaigns? Why did Monsanto pay “scientists” to write articles abt Glyphosate? Have you seen the Monsanto papers?https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/989160126824308736   Permalink 9:23 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb KELLY CRITERION My lecktchur notes to students. Thanks to @ole_b_peters who showed how stoooooopid decision theorists have been not getting time vs/ ensemble returns. pic.twitter.com/YflQZF4mUB Permalink 8:20 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb CLUSTERING You can detect a shill (such as the charlatan @mark_lynas) using the following method: there is a cluster of people who are both GMO & glyphosate advocates, when the distribution of advocacy shld be somewhat random. What do the 2 have in common? Monsanto.https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/936347998333865985   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “Taboo fatigue”https://twitter.com/normonics/status/988519169074319362   Permalink 6:01 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@PaleoPhil And here is Nassim on the past interchangeability of blue and green:https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/932046776135311360   Permalink 5:06 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is from Reich(2018): something about splicing I don’t get. Does it mean one only inherits clusters of DNA? Otherwise to exclude an ancestor would be very low probability. Is this 47+71 an average or a stochastic quantity? cc: @trishankkarthik also noticed. pic.twitter.com/286p1x5hAH Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Apr 2018

@nntaleb @danieldennett reminds me of the IYI Arabists secularists in Syria & Iraq who, in 1934, predicted that religion (particularly Islam) would be a thing of the past by 1960; then in 1960, predicted that it would be gone by 1990, then again before Sept 11, predicted… Permalink 3:18 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after all these years, a compliment.https://twitter.com/atakanyz/status/988894548314206208   Permalink 2:51 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Trying to speak Turkish in preparation for my visit to Dunya Guzelihttps://youtu.be/x3ublVoNog0   Permalink 1:30 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@alxpr1c3 it was only a matter of time – https://youtu.be/uEhqXjlCsDQ   @nntaleb Permalink 12:42 PM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb IYI @danieldennet’s remark is the best advertising for John Gray’s new book.https://www.amazon.com/Seven-Types-Atheism-John-Gray/dp/0374261091/ref=la_B000AQ0VXU_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1524586923&sr=1-1   Permalink 9:23 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Margaritas ante porcos*. *Pearls before swine.https://twitter.com/danieldennett/status/988799650156163079   Permalink 8:33 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@MaxBlumenthal The author of this desperate smear job is so malicious he cited a literal blacklist by a neocon think tank accusing every public figure who has ever given an interview to RT — all 2326 of them — of being “useful idiots” https://twitter.com/maxblumenthal/status/930168593320415232?s=21  https://twitter.com/chrisdyork/status/988720747928588289   Permalink 7:40 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@ole_b_peters What will happen in this experiment? https://osf.io/8t25b/   Will people switch between the specific utility functions EE predicts or won’t they, as EUT predicts? What would be a fair interpretation? @rorysutherland @nntaleb @R_Thaler please guess, comment, retweet. Permalink 7:05 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@ToryAnarchist Don’t miss @DrGeneCallahan’s review of @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/modagejournal/status/988756314926043136   Permalink 5:57 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@thackerpd I love how #FOIA emails keep uncovering more and more “independent” #GMO scientists who, oddly enough, are working with #monsanto @hiltzikmhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/988499832506535938   Permalink 5:55 AM – 24 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) Knowledge entails seeing signal from noise. You don’t get that with promiscuous reading. Permalink 5:05 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The Indians get the idea of rigor!http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/economists-bullshit-for-a-living-nn-taleb-gives-kaushik-basu-a-lesson-on-skin-in-the-game/   Permalink 4:38 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Today is #BookDay. Remember The opposite of reading is not not reading, but reading something like @NewYorker (& books in its style) 2) Critical reasoning, the ability to spot logical inconsistencies, degrades w/promiscuous reading. Choose carefully and read little. Permalink 4:33 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@ggreenwald In Yemen today, the Saudis bombed a wedding, killing at least 20 people, including the bride. They killed “mostly women and children.” The US & UK – who some believe do humanitarian interventions – both play vital roles in the Saudi destruction of Yemenhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/yemen-airstrike-wedding-party-killed-injured-bani-qayis-saudi-coalition-latest-updates-a8317826.html   Permalink 4:22 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ Our paper http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   has surpassed 12,425 views/downloads in PLOS ONE. Its finding “the most accurate ML method was worse than then least accurate statistical one” was not contested expect by only one of the several hundred tweets/retweets received. Permalink 12:59 AM – 23 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Always apologize, except when you’ve done something wrong.https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/988229182034362368   Permalink 6:47 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) Unless the person is a risk taker, the higher up in any organization, the more you can dispense with him/her. If the nonentrepreneur CEO of [name your company] did not exist, the world would be the same. Or better. Permalink 3:24 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I woke with this conclusion from Skin in the Game: 1) Things work thanks to a handful of people; the rest operates by situational imitation, narrow mimicry, and semi-conscious role-playing. Permalink 3:19 PM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Things are easier if you call it Western Eurasia, as the scientific name in genetics.https://twitter.com/GreenPlusAnE/status/988118541399445504   Permalink 11:45 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Actually sub-imbecile @booksandbooze_ doesn’t get that defending grandmother ag Sunstein-style psycholophasters is not because “conservative” but because one prefers nonBS to BS., or prefers what works (w/high STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE) to what fails. This is called SCIENTIFIC. Permalink 9:11 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, who is attacking “science” and “experts”?https://twitter.com/booksandbooze_/status/988051858701914112   Permalink 6:52 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Under the glorious Third Republic, the French gov’s share was 9% of GDP. Today it is ~60% 1 in 12 workers are now civil servants. pic.twitter.com/5NUcZMRoQx Permalink 5:19 AM – 22 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Correction: I said somewhere that the French National Assembly was today mostly composed of professional politicians/bureaucrats’lawyers (the usual IYIs). The rate is about 40%.http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/06/26/quelles-professions-exercent-nos-deputes_5151288_4355770.html   Permalink 3:50 PM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Do you think the Russians interfered in the elections in Saudi Arabia? Permalink 1:51 PM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Reciting Hammurabi in Akkadian while writing Skin in the Game https://www.dropbox.com/s/prgh5gsxj6ghc3m/hammurabi.mp3?dl=0  https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/987727336555581440   Permalink 9:30 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb It takes bet 45 minutes & a week to convince a smart person that GMOs are an intellectual fraud, not science but scientism, that supporters are not “skeptics” but shills, etc. Takes only 30 seconds to convince a computer scientist. Just mention P/NP and they get it instantly. Permalink 7:30 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships are available for the 8th program May 28-June 1st. Full scholarships are available for women, Syrian students, & unemployed people -please mail a (short) CV http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 7:13 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In fact I tend to block people who give unsollicited advice, make logical mistakes, or represent Monsanto/Saudi Barbaria, rarely those who attack me. Permalink 6:22 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The thing is, I enjoy Twitter fights & other public brawls. I always open Twitter with the anticipation one has facing a box of Christmas goodies. If you are scared of opening Twitter, you are doing something wrong.https://twitter.com/CHSommers/status/987495738073583617   Permalink 5:42 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@ggreenwald Things that are *not* press freedom attacks: — Trump tweeting juvenile insults about TV stars. Things that *are* press freedom attacks: — Obama & Trump DOJ prosecuting sources under Espionage Act — DNC suing WikiLeaks for *publishing* docs:https://theintercept.com/2018/04/20/the-dncs-lawsuit-against-wikileaks-poses-a-serious-threat-to-press-freedom/   Permalink 5:17 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) People using such services as @23andMe me for autosomal DNA get percentages (23% this, 10% that, etc.) This is BS: you need to look at INDEPENDENT categories, as in the map above, and look at distance from clusters. Permalink 4:51 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Speculation Du Jour: Genetic distance on PCA Distance on PCA, when small, does not reflect difference in traits, only the rate of inbreeding from period >the Bronze age. When large, disproportional difference in traits. A better measure is differential entropy. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/dsjUs1iEmL Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) In a rational society, pedophrasty should be a powerful tag, at par with “racism” and “sexism” pic.twitter.com/nlTOal9f1E Permalink 4:38 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Pedophrasty is a great way to get people to suspend judgment. So powerful it has to be used by scammers.https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/987442108939284481   Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@surreallyno After 236 pages of thought-provoking chapters, the Epilogue is remarkably simple. And powerful. Great book, Nassim Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/VpxO6BCwDM Permalink 1:04 AM – 21 Apr 2018

@howisthewater The Northern and Western European tradition needed to absorb Rome into their linear classics narrative as otherwise they would need to accept that their progenitors were defeated, butchered, and enslaved by the war machine of the Roman Republic en masse. Permalink 12:10 PM – 20 Apr 2018

@oldlevantine L-ligga l-qurayciyye ma jtééxit minna laxaala. L-muçassassét l-Maruniyyé qilla, min l-qniisé lal-batraqiyyé larr-rahbanéét lal-madééris bi-rimmita, hinné lli ÿawrabo c-caÿb. ss-suusé minna w fiina. The barbarians aren’t at the gate; they ARE the gatekeepers, from the Patriarch on Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Why anything (like academia) that escapes evolutionary selection (survival) will rot. Like economics and this charlatan @kaushikcbasu.https://medium.com/incerto/what-do-i-mean-by-skin-in-the-game-my-own-version-cc858dc73260   Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Charlatans & economists use logical flaw: because a pilot is expert, they are experts. But Pilots are selected via skin-in-the-game mechanisms. Plumbers, dancers, dentists, mathematicians, snipers, pastry chefs are experts. Not this @kaushikcbasu. Economists BS for a living.https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/987179168600350720   Permalink 11:48 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “Mr. Wegert and Mr. Landmesser: People, Numbers and the Tipping Point” by Predrag Brajovichttps://medium.com/@PredragBrajovic/mr-wegert-and-mr-landmesser-people-numbers-and-the-tipping-point-d66848dc9578   Permalink 9:49 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Map is wrong. Berytus spoke Latin (not just Greek), the coastal towns were Hellenic.https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/986889895871426560   Permalink 9:12 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Where I discover that Benjamin Ferensz and I have been sharing the same Calabrese barbers for 25 years. He is about to turn 100 and speaks Italian! He actually jokes in Italian. pic.twitter.com/Rn8C2VmcA2 Permalink 8:31 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb What the Mary Beards anachronistic BS vendors are confused abt: the genetic distance SouthMed-Roman was a fraction of Brit-Roman. So, if anything, the Brits would have been the “ethnics”. Reich: North Africans (S. Meds) are ecologically WestEurasians.https://twitter.com/2trad4u/status/987334661411082240   Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) You do not build political systems based on wishful thinking (s.a. lets “eliminate” corruption). You build systems ROBUST to the assumption that humans are flawed, self-serving, & prone to suckerdom (let’s make sure corruption/lobbying/thinkthanking don’t have a big payoff).https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/987063810379919361   Permalink 6:59 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it, our precautionary principle page & the computational class for GMOs. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv”>  pic.twitter.com/x2XBpUwbcv Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@ektrit HISTORY Being a history buff, and a practicing Christian Orthodox, I could not match the history of the Church and the official European histories. I owe it to @nntaleb to finally understand that 19th-20th century historians simply made RETROACTIVE decisions about 10th century. Permalink 4:24 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If you want an elementary class on HOW TO NOT THINK CRITICALLY: A GUIDE ON CIRCULAR REASONING & BS VENDING, read this fellow @ChrisDYork Why this degradation of reasoning abilities in 2018, not 218? Adverse selection: only rejects become journalists, a recent profession.https://twitter.com/ChrisDYork/status/986865853693087744   Permalink 4:21 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You can see Monsanto bribing educators to promote their “science” on social media. By some coincidence the same ones who tried a character assassination on yours truly. Monsanto worked hard to make people believe that SCIENTISM = SCIENCEhttps://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/987090232351735813   Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid 1/ There were a lot of tweets, retweets, likes and criticisms for our PLOS ONE paper http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   with three major ones: 1. The time series were too short 2. They were too noisy 3. There were no explanatory variables to support forecasting Permalink 12:59 AM – 20 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is called cannibalism. Managers of the bank get bonuses, but bank pays fine to the government… and banks are stopped out by the government. The managers should be paying the fines. #skininthegame #RobertRubinTradehttps://nyti.ms/2vpkYRK   Permalink 5:13 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@robertwjordway “…the vast majority of the exercise “science” that is being conducted in universities is complete BS” -@CoachRippetoe, @SS_strength. I think @nntaleb would extend this to several other domains… #startingstrength pic.twitter.com/iSS46yr4XL Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In a centralized system, it takes very, very little money to control government. I am not surprised to see how little money lobbyists make compared to the control they exert over Yuuuge decisions. #localism pic.twitter.com/wUMNKbK6Ss Permalink 1:22 PM – 19 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Inheriting inequality https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/InheritingInequality.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3Icfjb3eLt”>  pic.twitter.com/3Icfjb3eLt Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A year and a half later, nobody has yet provided data about Syrian casualties and “genocide”.https://medium.com/opacity/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd   Permalink 9:59 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A monoculture (such as the one we have in Saudi Barbaria financed lobbies) will produce logical inconsistencies. pic.twitter.com/v33hXvruJP Permalink 9:37 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Indeed JK Rowling is an insult to logical inference. pic.twitter.com/CW4E9HPCYc Permalink 9:34 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/986977224883568640?s=21   Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My friend Guru is half subsaharan African. Like many SSA he doesn’t like the notion of racism to be diluted by selfserving virtue merchants to the point of lack of effectiveness: its true victims will be first to pay the price.https://twitter.com/guruanaerobic/status/986926056258068480   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “ In 2015, I asked where to get the style and never got a reply from Wolfram. “ Who are you bullsh**ing? Permalink 7:38 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The Heuristics and Biases tradition does not need this loss aversion stuff (complicated for tail events/dynamics). Its main subject is errors of judgment facing uncertain events: their catalogue works well for non-tails. Permalink 5:44 AM – 19 Apr 2018

@RandPaul I ran for office to put a stop to Washington’s out-of-control spending! Today, I introduced my “Penny Plan” federal budget that will balance within five years.https://youtu.be/8Ti0BmGhDNY   Permalink 5:34 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath Maestro, do you known where/if this Norm inequality has been proved? pic.twitter.com/GSEFJ4McJt Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION THREAD: Heart Attack Rate for Sprinters Friends, looking for data/papers/other on heart attacks by sprinters vs Marathon runners. Needs to be age-adjusted, properly controlled, etc. cc:@GuruAnaerobic @drjasonfung @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:31 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The type of thing we watch for when we write papers and articles. Ms @juliamacfarlane make sure you read the ethics guidelines before discussing @KarlreMarks pic.twitter.com/Tiou7VEuoq Permalink 2:19 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Notice plagiarist @KarlreMarks uses “he is so eager for intellectual validation”, a sentence that applies everywhere: a nonplagiarist would not have tried something of the sort, rather: sorry I didn’t notice, it is coincidental, etc. Step 2: they downplay plagiarism… Permalink 2:13 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb How every plagiarist respondshttps://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986711038157520896   Permalink 2:03 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Turns out clown @KarlreMarks is also a plagiarist.https://twitter.com/KarlreMarks/status/986506998375157761   Permalink 1:22 PM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) Further, @paulmromer, answers on both sides could have been lost in spam folders; it is unrigorous to generalize from 1 piece of correspondence. (I for my part have never had an inquiry w/ them that went unanswered). But using it part of rant over private vs public… Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mr @paulmromer, your rant bashing Mathematica is BS: +You misrepresent the reaction of @WolframResearch (they replied) +Offensive to users like myself +Strange for an economist to diss for profit closed systems (incentives?) +You don’t get mathematical tinkering/explorationhttps://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/985280552440909824   Permalink 7:10 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, to be constructive, I recommend @confusezeus and @janinedigi & others in the verbalistic business enroll in a class of critical thinking where the empirical methods of evidence weighting by @Rootclaim are taught.https://philosophy169.wordpress.com   Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Training Bicyclists on a Mountain Road https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/AfterJamesBond.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KusUwfchUM”>  pic.twitter.com/KusUwfchUM Permalink 5:18 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This systematic approach by @Rootclaim (or something of the type) is the only chance we have to use rigor in analysis. As a probabilist I am proud to see my field lead to some clarity. Here is the analysis of the previous chemical event.https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448   Permalink 4:22 AM – 18 Apr 2018

@rory_yeomans Syria is the end point of a journalistic process which began during the Yugoslav conflicts of the 1990s. Make the complex simple and imply any journalist/academic or analyst who has a different insight is an apologist or acting in bad faith. Repeat. Rinse. pic.twitter.com/z065G4cMZz Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Information gains from attempts to repress it. I was neutral to info by Robert Fisk but not neutral to attempts to smear him. The more hyperactivity & anger against him, the more likely his info to be true… #Antifragile Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@LHMMacKenzie Truth really is stranger than fiction. Accusing an acclaimed journalist of assisting in a war crime based on the premise of him reporting a contrasting perspective. 2018 feels more like 1984. Permalink 2:17 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb So @janinedigi, you want Robert Fisk to be judged for war crimes for reporting on events, in a way that contradicts your priors? Stalinism enforced by people disguized as journalists?https://twitter.com/janinedigi/status/985955195589971969   Permalink 1:25 PM – 17 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A Simple Integral of a Peculiar Functrion. Practically no integration https://www.cut-the-knot.org/proofs/SimpleIntegralWithASpecialFunction.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/9SMVIdC11x”>  pic.twitter.com/9SMVIdC11x Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In Skin in the Game: …risk aversion, or something even more foolish, “loss aversion” pic.twitter.com/u6s83iDKKt Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Ha!!!https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/986186324884541440   Permalink 3:23 AM – 17 Apr 2018

@nntaleb “The Corruption of Evidence Based Medicine — Killing for Profit” by @drjasonfunghttps://medium.com/@drjasonfung/the-corruption-of-evidence-based-medicine-killing-for-profit-41f2812b8704   Permalink 2:52 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Enmity can flip twice; friendship only once. Permalink 2:17 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Enmity can reverse twice, friendship only once. Permalink 2:05 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb هيدا منوا الحرف العبري بس الحرف الارامي-كنعاني. اهين الواحد يكتببوا من الحرف العربي Permalink 12:02 PM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb דלאלת אל חאירינ כתב בל–ערבי, בלכצ אלעבריhttps://twitter.com/bdaiwi_historia/status/985280646493941760   Permalink 11:53 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@widespreadhaze Robert Fisk reporting from the clinic in Douma at which the victims of an alleged CW attack were filmed. There was no CW attack, the victims were suffering from hypoxia due dust inhalation. Please RT:http://podcasts.spiritradio.ie/robert-fisk-from-douma-syria/   Permalink 11:25 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@Wilkmaster I trust Fisk 100x more than Boris and May on this (Beware though: The jihadis gas captives so you do/will have some Sarin-affected kiddos. Poor little things) pic.twitter.com/PpdoykkeF5 Permalink 9:16 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A preliminary glossary of counteraccusations, to fend of accusatory propaganda such as “racist” in situations where it is not warranted, and similar matters. pic.twitter.com/EU4sDFQbvy Permalink 8:06 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Given the probability of two balls being of the same color. How many are there of each color? https://twitter.com/gregminshall/status/985792358720724992   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hNz9gL3ZEW”>  pic.twitter.com/hNz9gL3ZEW Permalink 6:11 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@WeAreLebanon A sunny fresh day from #Beirut By @hasnafrangieh #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/gtrk18PUUv Permalink 2:32 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid Hype Vs Reality: How accurate are AI/ML methods beyond image, sound and text recognition? It all depends on the type of application and the four factors shown in the photo taken from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eWJaoUYN3A”>  pic.twitter.com/eWJaoUYN3A Permalink 1:15 AM – 16 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My paper on p value hacking was accepted in a journal. I was told the math was peer-reviewed to be OK but that it has to have an explanatory section simple enough that “even a statistitian” can understand. Any comment? https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rH8aM0e7pM”>  pic.twitter.com/rH8aM0e7pM Permalink 3:40 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Espen is the most Independent Yet Rigorous (IYR) thinker I’ve had the privilege to work with. He moved from option trading to math finance to quantum mechanics/statistical physics.https://twitter.com/EGHaug/status/985646350372098050   Permalink 3:33 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb One byproduct of inequality: socially confident scholars who didn’t care abt their reputation: Wittgenstein, B. Russell, Darwin (mostly Erasmus), Galton, De Broglie, etc. I’ve never met any scholar who, like Wittgenstein, didn’t give a flying f**ck abt his/her standing. Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Apr 2018

@SimnaniIqbals Jeffry D Sachs said in two minutes all that is to say about Syria. Trump’s initial instincts were right, but then he listened to the establishment. Worth clicking.https://twitter.com/markweisbrot/status/984525820621357056?s=21   Permalink 11:52 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) A powerful one would be “Nabothizing”, as Naboth was the victim of false accusation by Jezebel, or something of the sort. (Incidentally my real family name is Naboth; Taleb Nabout was my gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-grndfather) but the Leb state cut off Nabout in 1923 to simplifity.) Permalink 9:50 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@_benoux_ 1) Some notes on the issue The meaning of words evolve by those who control the narrative, but they can’t control Lindy effect of time. A sophist used to mean “wise” payed by powerful people. Now it’s the opposite. Pharisee was a title of superior sanctity. Now it’s an insult. Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 3) If you devalue words like “racism” or “chauvinism” you will end up harming the true victims. Calling someone “Hitler” for trivial reasons is an insult to the real victims of Hitler.https://twitter.com/AndBeyond_N/status/985537088929058818   Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) The idea is that if someone accuses you of something, you spend your time explaining why you are not what you are being accused of. Instead, fire back with a worse accusation, so it is the accuser who now has to defend himself… Permalink 8:09 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) We BADLY need such word and make it as SEVERE as the accusation itself -a first step towards penalty. Recall that in Babylon a false accusation was punished as if the accuser committed the crime. Permalink 7:29 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We need a word to summarize such INTERVENTIONISTA BS, the fallacy of looking at “dictators” without looking at the OTHER SIDE.https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/985517879524319232   Permalink 7:22 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath For the very beginners https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/TwoBallsOutOfFour.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PLJhr4QodF”>  pic.twitter.com/PLJhr4QodF Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We need a word for the misuse of the accusation of “racism” or “chauvinism” to exploit the power of such label in situations where the accusation is not warranted. Accuser: “This is racist” Answer: “This is the xxxxxx fallacy (or fraud)” GraecoLatin Words are powerful. Permalink 7:20 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@onlmaps Demographics of the Aegean Sea and its Surroundings around 1919,… http://dlvr.it/QPbSN7   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yjQsmg8sl4″>  pic.twitter.com/yjQsmg8sl4 Permalink 4:06 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Delenda Goldman Sachshttps://twitter.com/jay7yagi/status/985397595802619909   Permalink 2:15 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@medialens From the School of Liberal Humanitarian Intervention, Andrew Rawnsley bemoans that the West is ‘guilty of failing to act’ in Syria. No mention of the CIA spending $1 billion per year, arming and training ‘rebels’. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/lawmakers-move-to-curb-1-billion-cia-program-to-train-syrian-rebels/2015/06/12/b0f45a9e-1114-11e5-adec-e82f8395c032_story.html?utm_term=.4b71666d2438   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/D8LqV2X4dL”>  pic.twitter.com/D8LqV2X4dL Permalink 12:26 AM – 15 Apr 2018

@thebeatthatmy @nntaleb circa 2015. Rereading old knowledge in times of stress. Спасибо. pic.twitter.com/j11ScsvAVq Permalink 7:56 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb How about Epipedidexation? A single word you can use in a debate to fend off an accusation with another one. “You are supporting a baby-killer” Answer: “This is shoddy epipedidexation!” Any better word? Permalink 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb We are maximally vulnerable to pictures of suffering children. Hence manipulation: beggars who rent children, PR firms who stage Syria things, etc. An accusation of “supporting baby killers” is defenseless. Unless we find a name for this shoddy manipulation. Pueri…? Ideas?https://twitter.com/jadinho123/status/984918030017875968   Permalink 12:39 PM – 14 Apr 2018

@catoletters Father Daniel in Syria: “There Never Was a Popular Uprising in Syria”https://www.sott.net/article/354637-Sott-net-Interview-with-Father-Daniel-in-Syria-There-Never-Was-a-Popular-Uprising-in-Syria   Permalink 12:15 PM – 14 Apr 2018