Monthly Archives: October 2015

Halloween, Mini-Certificate, Beirut, Employees

The Mini-Certificate


One-week intense workshop: Feb 22-26 2016, New York City, 9 AM-5 PM

Nassim N. Taleb will deliver about half the lecture and sign the certificate

2 day program (no mini-certificate), $2950*

5 day program (with mini-certificate),  $7400*
(Early signup discount $2200 and $5900 respectively before Dec 15 2015)

* Inaugural price

The venue is expected to be the Princeton Club of NY in Midtown Manhattan or an equivalent outfit.

Note: Discussions include no equations, but a lot of concepts and pictures

The minority rule explains the new Halloween (and why Europe will eat halal, why GMOs bust)

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 30, 2015
After all this (secret) unremitting work I finally completed my small personal time machine. Future vs present.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 30, 2015
Finally, our Mini-Certificate in Real World Risk Management anti-BS anti-Nerd approach.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 30, 2015

First book lecture in French; In Beirut with French Lycée classmates attending.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 30, 2015
My point about Switzerland isn’t that it doesn’t have a government. What It doesn’t have is much of a *central* government: *subsidiarity*.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 28, 2015
Employees are more risk averse, they fear being fired more than contractors do being sued. @ArthurB

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 27, 2015

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The danger of debt | The Sunday Times Post


But in this instance, the government came in indiscriminately to bail out everyone. So let’s zoom out seven years later – is it seven years already? – and look at what’s happened.

Well, what has happened is nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing new. We did not learn. We have had some kind of pseudo-recovery, mostly fuelled by an increase of debt. So the pool of debt has increased, and at low interest rates from the Fed, which don’t seem to be effective.

Now you have to realise that debt is only to be judged when you pay it back. Life should not be a Ponzi scheme which collapses when you have to pay it back. Is there an element of Ponzi in debt? Well, there’s some element that’s not Ponzi in debt – that’s small – and there’s a Ponzi element. So we didn’t learn much from the crisis. If we look at the narrative in 2009, it was healthier then.

But the efforts of governments in making things cosmetically look good now have been bad.What we didn’t learn from the crisis is that debt and leverage is bad, and we didn’t learn that economists are full of baloney. I have busted them mathematically. Between 2009 and now, I’ve published 45 technical papers, and I have ten more under review by journals. I have found arguments of theirs that are not valid empirically, but no one seems to care.

Source: Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The danger of debt

Halal, Eataly, Firms & Slaves, Coase, Strong Filtering, Flaneuring, Tails

This page is not about finance except when the idea generalizes. Here it helps us connect flaneuring to successes such as those of Buffet.
The best thing is to not have to do anything *as a default*. So one commits in those cases that are way too obvious.
+ No schedule except when you can’t do without
+ Have no personal assistant.
+ Have no office, or only use one when strictly necessary.
+ Only write things that you find compelling.
+ Take only those offers that you can’t refuse.

So I figured out something about the success of Munger-Buffett. It is not in the strategies they run, but in their very, very, very strong filtering.
Simply it is generalized flaneuring. Charlie Munger: “We have no system for estimating the correct value of all businesses. We put almost all in the “too hard” pile and sift through a few easy ones”. “Warren (Buffett) talks about these discounted cash flows. I’ve never seen him do one”. (in Tren Griffin’s book)

The implication is that the nuances of the “genre” as strategy matter less than filtering. Because of such nonlinearity, Buffett’s performance is no longer correlated with that of the strategy.

Why Europeans will eat Halal before long; how morality came about; how GMOs are going bust: The stubborn minority

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

When I die I want to end up at Eataly in Milan: books, food, wine, & people.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

Why do firms exist? Because of the need for slaves.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

Here is Coase’s seminal paper on the theory of the firm. He missed the point of employee =risk control via SITG

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

Skin in the game workshop, 4 papers on SITG by PhD students at Zurich’s ETH.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

If you trust Italy’s GDP nmbrs, I have a bridge to sell near Napoli. Italy’s GDP fughedaboud theundergroundeconomy

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

Strong Filtering as Generalized Flaneuring @trengriffin

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 22, 2015

Wrong reasoning with the left tail/systemic risk. We don’t use the argument with plane crashes!

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 23, 2015

Latest paper with @dottorpax on method to to do stats with fat tail that are not infinite.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 22, 2015

Gini Coefficients, Powerlaws, Violence

How to (Not) Estimate Gini Coefficients for Fat Tailed Variables by Nassim Nicholas Taleb :: SSRN

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 16, 2015
Another paper @dottorpax on dealing with pseudo-powerlaws

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 15, 2015
Slides for my flash talk at the Bloomberg QuantSeminar this evening at 5:30 (open to public w/rgstrtn):

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 15, 2015
Paper on Violence with @dottorpax , new version. No, no, no basis to say violence from wars has declined.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 13, 2015
Executive Workshop on “Complexity with Fat Tony” with @yaneerbaryam @Necsi next January

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 13, 2015
The idea of e-learning misses that pple go to school to socialize; just as idea of e-book misses that pple read a book to hold an object.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 13, 2015
Just as restaurants’ true mission is to sell wine (not food), French foreign policy’s true aim is to sell weaponry.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 11, 2015