Tag Archives: minority rule

LOCALISM, Identity Politics, Banksy, Kashoggi, Berlin, Crying In Public, Boulder, Reputation, Popper, Minority Rule, Kasparov, Pinker, Ketogenesis | Twitter


@highnoontide This perfectly explains why @nntaleb once suggested Nobel Prize in Economics be banned. https://twitter.com/j_lovering/status/1049283173866192896   Permalink 9:33 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ethical Inquiries and Discussions pic.twitter.com/dC4Fscoiuv Permalink 8:36 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@spyrosmakrid 2/ People who consumed a diet high in meat and dairy had a 22% decreased risk of heart attack and a 25% decreased risk of early death (28 Aug. 18) https://www.escardio.org/The-ESC/Press-Office/Press-releases/Components-of-heart-healthy-diet-may-differ-from-what-was-previously-thought   #Forecasting #Diet ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UaahWBBj0i”>  pic.twitter.com/UaahWBBj0i Permalink 6:11 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic All this misses the point about SCALE, a la @nntaleb – “LOCALISM: At Fed level, libertarian; state, Republican; local, Democrat; family/friends, socialist”. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1048946544551100416   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb If you want someone to read ALL your tweets, block him or her. Permalink 2:12 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Deleted tweets are more informational than regular ones. https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1049039025821155328   Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Just lecktured the Hackers Congress (Prague) via Skype that distorts my face. https://twitter.com/austinmcraig/status/1048981750045528064   Permalink 1:57 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Banksy provides a perfect illustration of the potency of *via negativa*. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/1048635864585310208   Permalink 8:44 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb So it is easy to eliminate Kashoggi because he has no tribal links, people who would seek revenge. https://twitter.com/ZJoureir/status/1048934611299045376   Permalink 7:31 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb ABSTRACT UNIVERSALISMS AND PSEUDOIDENTITIES 1) People conflate differences between groups and difference between individuals. 2) Identity politics leads to stereotyping, no different from racial profiling. pic.twitter.com/CbUVmCrZbn Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In Turkish, Kaşıkçı means spoon maker. Permalink 6:53 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An uninteresting twist to the Khashoggi story is that Khashoggi is not a Saudi Arab, but a Turkish-Syrian name. Permalink 6:39 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #antifragile #tesla #blackswanmobile pic.twitter.com/VOAcJ6Q5xf Permalink 6:31 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ethics pic.twitter.com/vkSUEHZv7H Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that people engage shills thinking their arguments will change their minds. You see it with Monsanto shills, with agents of Saudi Barbaria, etc. Permalink 3:57 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@acommonlawyer I’m with @nntaleb on this: income post-public office should not exceed that available in public office. Otherwise, post-office income for previous incumbents ≈ implicit bribe for current incumbent; “stay on our good side and we’ll make you rich when you’re done being president”. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1048874388874022912   Permalink 3:01 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@HsenAndil I started recently translating Le Petit Prince into Lebanese. This is still a first draft, in terms of the script/orthography, and the translation itself (wording). Feedback from natives would be highly appreciated. Here’s a link to the first chapter: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erV9jAtNdys82F2hy1LAB43BmSW-DK6x/view?usp=sharing   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/T4rwjDfWwy”>  pic.twitter.com/T4rwjDfWwy Permalink 1:46 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb How you can tell a Saudi government shill, even without tracking his funding. Some idiots engage him. https://twitter.com/aliShihabi/status/1048684171072327681   Permalink 4:55 PM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Solution with probabilistic approach pic.twitter.com/hKDYjfc5Xc Permalink 6:07 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Note that there is no such thing as a “thinker” who is not a FREE (that is independent) thinker. Gabish? https://twitter.com/sirchappyquiddi/status/1048532476157677568   Permalink 4:22 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A partisan’s (or an ideologue’s) assessment of a situation doesn’t depend on the situation. Permalink 4:01 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Note: I systematically block people with cute remarks on math problems. Permalink 4:34 PM – 5 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A math problem a la @CutTheKnotMath for the weekend. Courtesy Dan Sitaru, the Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/F6HdFanbgM Permalink 3:39 PM – 5 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @Mises #humanaction #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/gx0bCzIGF8 Permalink 7:43 AM – 5 Oct 2018

@marciadabliu “Specifically, Brazil and Argentina often use more than 4.5 kilograms of glyphosate per hectare – three times as much as when GM soya was introduced some 20 years ago.” https://twitter.com/testbiotech/status/1047904942097412097   Permalink 2:16 AM – 5 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, and idiots in labels. Permalink 9:48 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, and idiots in labels. Permalink 9:48 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Too many people think in labels. Permalink 12:50 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is a prime example the genetic fallacy. The internet was founded as a military application. Please avoid sloppy thinking. https://twitter.com/Yehesz/status/1047808343530565634   Permalink 4:25 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The value of a degree is in its RELIABILITY: when ill in a foreign country you can bet the MD has minimal competence. Like a driver’s license. HUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE degrees offer no reliability. If you don’t know what you get, degrees are worthless. The market punishes BS Permalink 12:29 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The value of a degree is in its RELIABILITY: when ill in a foreign country you can bet the MD has minimal competence. Like a driver’s license. HUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE degrees offer no reliability. If you don’t know what you get, degrees are worthless. The market punishes BS Permalink 12:29 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb (Madrid) Permalink 1:50 PM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Madeid (a brief stop) pic.twitter.com/DxGqa8n3gk Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Please note that I only do book lecktchurs when the book is out in the language, even then. I don’t do book lecktchurs for a living. I prefer technical lectchurs on probability. Permalink 10:13 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Nietzsche #antifragile pic.twitter.com/4ShhS0mDAQ Permalink 9:27 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@asymmetricinfo 1) Almost everyone seems to be missing that this was tax arbitrage, not tax evasion. He was converting estate taxed money into income-taxed income. The size of the net benefit is somewhat uncertain because the conversion lost the benefits of tax deferral until death. Permalink 8:06 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb To understand decentralization/localism. + DC : much higher real estate/hotels prices than most large cities in the US. + Berlin: much cheaper real estate/hotels prices than most large cities in Germany. https://twitter.com/Evansrahal/status/1047476596112801792   Permalink 6:40 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Optimisation -> Fragility ‘I won Olympic Gold but can’t climb stairs’ – Amy Williams, 36 https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/winter-sports/45714174   Permalink 2:11 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ich bin ein Berliner. https://twitter.com/kungler/status/1047162090815991813   Permalink 9:23 PM – 2 Oct 2018

@kungler Los geht’s mit @nntaleb #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/vauhTwYwIU Permalink 9:31 AM – 2 Oct 2018

@nntaleb No human is more Mediterranean in demeanor, temperament & appearance than Irene Pappas. https://twitter.com/pascal_dorian/status/1044177867784032256   Permalink 5:00 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Page 17 (2 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #gfc #cbot #popper #mises #nietzsche #gnomesofzurich #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/LQ1HJyaDSL Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Page 16 (1 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #gfc #cbot #popper #mises #nietzsche #gnomesofzurich #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/HsKuETuCX9 Permalink 1:15 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@dannyhakim Prominent academic journal issues correction conceding that that “Monsanto Co. didn’t fully disclose its involvement” in articles declaring glyphosate safe. Raises latest questions of transparency in pesticide research. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/monsanto-s-role-in-roundup-safety-study-is-corrected-by-journal   Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Presented the new book to charlatans. The reaction (yellow) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Vq72bUo9JT”>  pic.twitter.com/Vq72bUo9JT Permalink 3:41 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb After the Macbook MacOS patch, even slower. @WolframResearch pic.twitter.com/hd1Ekt3h23 Permalink 2:54 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Last night I dreamed that I was given The job at the Federal Reserve. I walked in and announced that 1) every economist with an academic origin would be laid off, 2) every statistician who used “variance” in a research paper would be immediately terminated. Permalink 2:25 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@ggreenwald I always genuinely wonder: are DC foreign policy elites like @SamanthaJPower so inebriated with American Exceptionalism that they really believe it’s different when they do it, or do they know it’s the same but cynically view everyone as dupes? Probably differs for each offender. Permalink 11:39 AM – 30 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Duesseldorf The German Publisher put me in a hotel with a fully functional bathtub on the balcony. If these things don’t make you a traditionalist, I don’t know what will. pic.twitter.com/MuvfG17jRy Permalink 6:49 AM – 30 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://mobile.twitter.com/robkopacz/status/1046133861225246721   Permalink 1:49 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The only person who showed spine inthe episode was Lindsey Graham. I hate him. He is a neocon. He is an interventionist. But he showed spine. Permalink 12:44 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb This is not a job interview for auditor in chief at the local utility company. This is a lifetime apptmnt as a justice in the Supreme Court. It entails tough decisions. Very tough decisions. Gabish? Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1046106181683556354   Permalink 11:45 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1046106181683556354   Permalink 11:45 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-syria/syria-foreign-minister-tells-u-n-country-is-ready-for-refugee-return-idUSKCN1M90IA   Permalink 11:09 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The point is that it is not a good idea for a journalist to abet fraudulent information, particularly that I an vindictive enouth to make their lives miserable for decades. Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Answer: A 4 leg version of Jensen’s inequality. pic.twitter.com/DonVIDZtMB Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Joe Wiesenthal, @TheStalwart why are you spreading fake student evaluations by the anonymous @quantian1? Unethical. Permalink 4:04 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Lshghl bekassel l kifr. In praise of idleness. https://twitter.com/blebnene/status/1045947259937050625   Permalink 2:40 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1045927760277966848   Permalink 12:58 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Some Saturday morning Math in the style of @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/nrf10gZST3 Permalink 12:02 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) Not to mention that the employer of @rmslim is the @Middleeastinst paid by Persian Gulf states to promote Salafism & help destroy minorities & localists in Syria. In other words @rmslim is a PAID propagandist for evil Salafi states and some idiots unknowlingly engage her. Permalink 11:46 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The problem of Near East conflicts is that those with skin in the game have been sacrified for the sake of the principles of those with no skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 11:40 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) Someone sitting in the comfort of a think tank office (with a fridge full of yoghurt drinks) dictating what aid people on the ground in Syria should receive in order to satisfy her grand principles. #SkinintheGame. https://twitter.com/rmslim/status/1045922250015330304   Permalink 11:39 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@rorysutherland From @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CpJ1T0nUqF Permalink 1:36 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Some of the commentators (#idiots) here don’t get that the two statements: 1) believing that K is a victim and 2) believing that K is weaker than expected are compatible. Gabish? Permalink 10:06 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) I had to coin a word for someone flowing moral values backward in time, 25 centuries: RETROACTIVE BIGOTEERING. https://twitter.com/ProfSimonton/status/1045505514988138496   Permalink 9:34 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The only thing a college teacher of classics can reliably teach you is to become a college teacher of classics. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/923848138493956096   Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) One thing we know: Professors of Spartan history (like this bloke) are no Spartans. The heroes of history were not virtue-signaling library rats. The last person to learn classical values from is career “classicists”. You learn about doers from doers. https://twitter.com/ProfSimonton/status/1045504047879356417   Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/773574603205730305   Permalink 8:02 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Crying in public because you saw atrocities and feel sorry for someone else is fine; crying in public because you feel sorry for yourself (& implore others to feel sorry for you) is the greatest marker of weakeness. Permalink 7:18 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb SYMMETRY A soldier was accused of stealing someone’s food and eating it. The commander offered the following Solomonic deal. They kill the soldier and look into his stomach. If there is no food as described by the accuser, the accuser is put to death. Permalink 3:22 PM – 27 Sep 2018

@The_Cyrenian Every major UK newspaper also had “irrefutable evidence” that Iraq had “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, too. A million people died because of that lie. The propaganda, bloodlust and war-mongering of you and your Atlantic Council masters never ends, it seems. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1045189449770881024   Permalink 11:05 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Does anyone have an idea of government funding for economic “research”? Grants to universities, etc. Permalink 7:57 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nicolas_sommet The Spirit Level has been cited ≈10K times (≈700 times in 2018). The book is straightforward: It uses cross-sectional data to show negative effects of #IncomeInequality on health. The problem: It does NOT hold up to scrutiny. Thread pic.twitter.com/WWueTIeQN7 Permalink 7:12 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this moron that 1) progress = substituting what works RELIABLY better to what doesn’t work as well, 2) too fast a rate of evolution cancels out past gains. https://twitter.com/BorisMozer/status/1045307515452477440   Permalink 6:59 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@ggreenwald Left unaddressed in this deeply moving tweet: why didn’t Obama admin “cut off aid” to the Saudis as it destroyed Yemen? More to the point, why did you feed Saudis with arms & intel to help them do it? Perhaps because you have “no concern for loss of life”? https://twitter.com/SamanthaJPower/status/1045077050409848832   Permalink 4:20 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb OK, many roads… pic.twitter.com/RruU6HwY0j Permalink 7:33 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb MATH DU JOUR For those who survived the morning riddle, a yuugely interesting one. [Please avoid cute nonmath remarks: someone blocks all authors of polluting remarks on my MathTwitter feed and I cannot do anything about it]. pic.twitter.com/JmOJu74Y1c Permalink 6:57 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci produces BS about anything in sight, can he know anything about operational stoicism? https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 2:18 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Note: ALL authors of snide remarks on MathTwitter get automatically blocked. I can’t unblock and can’t stop it. Sorry for the inconvenience. Permalink 10:44 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My approach pic.twitter.com/I0DMdhJWgl Permalink 10:38 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The IYI class & the conviction by these sub-idiots that they are unconditionally smarter than practitioners. Why Stiglitz still unaware he helped wreck FNMAe and Venezuela. “He [Volker] is the best central banker ever…” “Is he smart like us?”, Stiglitz asked Rogoff. pic.twitter.com/UhbGJ98CQI Permalink 10:20 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb @Jonassibony can help with the Semitic root of 3ta pic.twitter.com/WzFrLO7t7D Permalink 9:17 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone arabized Michael Atiyah’s father’s name from Atiyyé in Lebanese to the Arabic Atiyah, when he converted from Greek Orthodox to to Protestant. The idea of Arabism is to kill localism in all its forms. https://twitter.com/EricJagr68/status/1044951476584501248   Permalink 7:12 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The reason we don’t use chalk was initially linked to the asbestos problem. Bring back the chalkboard. You can also use the chalk when deadlifting. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1044950108129947648   Permalink 7:06 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb A math morning riddle to distract ourselves from Atiyah’s proof. Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/3NOgE1RBTJ Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@naval Talking live with @nntaleb at @goBLOCKCON on Oct 11. We’ll cover my favorite book of 2018, Skin in the Game, and weave in some crypto. https://www.goblockcon.com/   Permalink 1:53 PM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Institutions don’t like scandals. They are weak. It suffices to have someone STUBBORN like me keep pounding them to fire someone. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972152554556657664   Permalink 11:17 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Excellent News! Henry I. Miller is no longer at the Hoover Institution. Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Kevin Folta (of the Monsanto connection) partook of the smear campaign against anti-Monsanto activist @RachelsNews when she was 15. Let us all applaud Rachel’s courage (she is now 18). https://globalnews.ca/news/2414720/documents-reveal-canadian-teenager-the-target-of-gmo-lobby/   https://twitter.com/RachelsNews/status/1044639812844539904   Permalink 10:36 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I do not give up. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/960317570300735488   Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The best test to figure out if people s.a. Mark Lynas or Tamar Haspel are shills: they support BOTH GMOs and Glyphosate –both of which benefit Monsanto. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1044560980758462465   Permalink 7:28 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@_erratica There are designations, like “economist”, “prostitute”, or “consultant”, for which additional characterization doesn’t add information. N N Taleb @nntaleb The Bed of Procrustes. ~ Permalink 10:14 PM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 4) “My understanding is: the LEFT stands against exploitation & coersion of the weak. The chief exploitation of the public isn’t corporations that go bust; it’s the permanence of rent-seeking fake experts such as Krugman, Bernanke & the neocons who inflict risks on others.” Permalink 3:16 PM – 24 Sep 2018

@ektrit Talebism @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Edourdoo/status/1044272191863427072   Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I found “chantage moral” in French which works in some contexts. Permalink 10:12 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR How do you translate ”Bi rabbe7 jmilé” from Leb? Genuinely failed. Permalink 9:58 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@garyruskin When companies bury evidence of harm and pollute the scientific literature with ghostwriting, as the Monsanto Papers show, why should consumers trust them? https://trib.in/2xzELgf   @GregTrotterTrib Background on the #MonsantoPapers: http://bit.ly/2mJSyvq   Permalink 9:50 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@jessefelder In 2006, Nobel Prize–winning economist Joseph Stiglitz praised the economic policies of Hugo Chávez. The Venezuelan president ran one of the “leftist governments” in Latin America that were unfairly “castigated for being populist.” https://www.city-journal.org/joseph-stiglitz-venezuela-16181.html   ht @DiMartinoBooth Permalink 9:32 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb What do we know about David Rothschild @DavMicRot ? He is incompetent in his own subject matter, statistics and pol forecasting. https://twitter.com/davmicrot/status/1043971493334536192   Permalink 9:19 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) Many are actually IN FAVOR of having “pundits” inflict risks on others with impunity”: those are members of the bureaucratic state. Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of “risk analysis” (debate in Las Vegas). https://twitter.com/fullnelson69/status/1044214702505697284   Permalink 6:31 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) These “leftists” even agreed that”: The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators) Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries Permalink 6:15 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message: + Localism, bottom-up + Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies + No enterprise without #Skininthegame + No abstract scale-free universalism A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist “left” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1043980243843743744   Permalink 5:41 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Localism and Skin in the Game. Boulder pic.twitter.com/9lFtLw28vE Permalink 2:47 PM – 23 Sep 2018

@VergilDen 18 yrs of winnings wipped out in one day. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1043888981354647553   Permalink 8:58 AM – 23 Sep 2018

@nntaleb People don’t learn. Skin in the game has the attribute of removing bad drivers from the system. Systems learn by removing. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1043814843814490113   Permalink 4:19 AM – 23 Sep 2018

@nntaleb So it looks concave (over the long run) 5 reps outperforms the combinations… Permalink 3:50 PM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The problem with performance metrics. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/mehdi_ir_dc/status/1043518161826525184   Permalink 8:17 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The idea is to see on which side of Jensen’s inequality: (locally) convex or concave? pic.twitter.com/XkX0qLQIcl Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Nothing more exhilarating than the press! Just the mental energy required to push the metal over your head. Now let f(.) be the benefit & x the # of reps; ignoring injury risks: f(1)+f(9) > (<) 2 f(5) ? i.e., 2 sets of 5 better or worse than 1 RM + 9 RM? Explain pic.twitter.com/Qi5exdub2e Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb This was written 21 years ago: “professionals” mistaking probability for expectation. From Fooled by Randomness pic.twitter.com/kwzbT2KWLF Permalink 5:49 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: Where the 3-4 Population Tests (left) are the analog to what we know in econometrics as GRANGER CAUSALITY (right) [ignore wikipedia, see scholarpedia below] http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Granger_causality   Meaning we can use cross-entropy metrics! cc: @iosif_lazaridis @PZalloua ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cuDcw7kl96″>  pic.twitter.com/cuDcw7kl96 Permalink 4:36 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Which explains why nobody interested in finance should ever follow twitter finance. https://twitter.com/StockCats/status/1043122635926896645   Permalink 4:18 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@wrathofgnon A perfectly medieval aphorism from @nntaleb. One of my favorites. From the book The Bed Of Procrustes. pic.twitter.com/KNlIWZq6BX Permalink 12:21 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb For the hot hand trust the experienced or the real mathematical probabilist. Not the semi-knowlegeable psycholophaster. Half scientists a la @r_thaler are b***tters. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964657750881046528?s=21   Permalink 4:17 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Unapologetic style… https://twitter.com/BiankaB12/status/1043216606594326529   Permalink 1:03 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Refusing the filter of “experience” is negating evolution. We didn’t make it through zillion of years without helpful statistical intuitions. Permalink 12:18 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb It turned out that the “evidence” showing no hot hand in sports is a fiction. Experience trumps pseudostatistics used by social scientists. https://twitter.com/chrisjkuntz/status/1043200573783396352   Permalink 11:13 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@black_swan_man Page 15 (2 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #HumanAction @Mises #nudge #Keynesian #IYIs @R_Thaler @paulkrugman pic.twitter.com/1i4AFYBcFT Permalink 6:05 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@black_swan_man Page 14 (1 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #HumanAction @Mises #nudge #Keynesian #IYIs @R_Thaler @paulkrugman pic.twitter.com/wRNB6vCWvY Permalink 6:03 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb New Title, book almost done. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sSCAxhGDNS”>  pic.twitter.com/sSCAxhGDNS Permalink 2:13 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Market Is “Sandbagging Us” – Mark Spitznagel Sees “Deeper & Deeper” Crashes Ahead | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-18/market-sandbagging-us-mark-spitznagel-sees-deeper-deeper-crashes-ahead   Permalink 10:44 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If you need your reputation more than I need mine, I own you. Otherwise you own me. Permalink 10:02 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb In BS vending by tagging some pseudoscientific psychological explanation to a wrong empirical fact, nobody beats Pinker. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1042784921398456320   Permalink 9:42 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Comparing the old Macbook pro (left) to the new one (right) using @WolframResearch’s Mathematica. Looks like the new one is SLOWER for Monte Carlo simulations. pic.twitter.com/cn3i22NXQi Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb How evil firms use mobs https://www.globalresearch.ca/monsanto-accused-of-hiring-army-of-trolls-to-silence-online-dissent-court-papers/5588396   Permalink 6:40 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) Note that evil corporations use social media to bully critics. Monsanto’s smear campaign against scientists is based on internet mobs organized by @KetchumPR. Permalink 6:12 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If social media scares you, change profession. Now. You can no longer be a scholar or scientist if you don’t have f*** you money or f*** you attitude. Otherwise you’re at the mercy of mob lynching. Ian Buruma abt pple “not convicted by the judiciary but by social media”: pic.twitter.com/sfl7QOb0K9 Permalink 5:57 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Three slides that summarize the problems with risk. https://twitter.com/mZargham/status/1022110281001050112   Permalink 3:16 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My greatest fear is to have someone who just as Soros who got Popper’s Open Society exactly backwards & funded an “Open Society Inst.” for a Platonic bureaucrat-led #skininthegame-free monoculture, starts an *Incerto Institute* promoting Kantian scale-free Universalism. Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Which is the reason I hate interviews; they try to force you to reduce a book to a fortune cookie-compatible expression. https://twitter.com/daviduvaydov/status/1042463961826947075   Permalink 1:47 PM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Minority rule https://twitter.com/justinraimondo/status/1042427028094382080   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Minority rule https://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/1042427028094382080   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid The major finding of the paper The forecasting accuracy of the best ML method was lower than the worst of Stat ones while half the ML methods were less accurate than a random walk was contrary to the beliefs of the Neural Networks journal that rejected it using a false reason pic.twitter.com/hpItW4OaKL Permalink 5:25 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The reason you can’t trust the press is PRECISELY because they give you the illusion of truth by getting the facts right. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb People in Lebanon used to rely on timber for heating/cooking (& tax payment to the Ottomans). Fossil fuel allowed the greening across places. It is bad (side effects), but one should NEVER represent a partial picture like this shoddy sensationalist @FranckGenauseau Permalink 4:43 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) Cedar story is missing the success of new growth across the mountain. 2) @FranckGenauze has never heard of cherry picking/sensationalism/sucker alarmism. pic.twitter.com/iL1mnw7Y0i Permalink 4:37 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Pictures of Leb in 1900 vs today. Clear reforestation. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1028613123157237760   Permalink 4:09 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb MISREPRESENTATION of STATISTICAL PICTURE Journos @FranckGenauzeauare clueless & cherrypicking. Lebanon is currently greening, >150,000 additional Cedar trees at higher level plus rising treeline. The planet is undergoing yuuge reforestation. This demoralizes environmentalists https://twitter.com/FranckGenauzeau/status/1042357182023520256   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@ilSaggiatoreEd Le letture del Ministro #Tria? ‘Skin in the game’ di @nntaleb, dall’undici ottobre in libreria grazie al vostro editore preferito. pic.twitter.com/4saQ9lUBTd Permalink 2:09 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@alexisevdox Great Psychology Today article on #AI and #MachineLearning. If it improves as a result of being faced with and solving problems, it’s #antifragile. Love how @nntaleb’s brilliant concept has invaded the lexicon. https://pos.li/2aferk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1QzirulIgq”>  pic.twitter.com/1QzirulIgq Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Math Problem du Jour. Courtesy: Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/iiKnwv0sxc Permalink 2:55 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I meant these principles https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1038934453974790144   Permalink 2:25 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PS I am not a libertarian but a localist, i.e. libertarian for higher levels of central government. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1042047309478014976   Permalink 2:22 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1rst stage when I read Hayek. 2nd stage when I read “Nudge” by @CassSunstein & @R_thaler & saw it was pseudoscience in industrial scale & something had to be done about the class of people I later coined “IYIS” (Intellectuals Yet Idiots). 3rd stage w/the Syrian war https://twitter.com/LPNational/status/1042145030406844416   Permalink 2:03 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@mistermircea Actually @nntaleb spells it out in Ch. 17 of Antifragile “The minute I was bored with a book or subject I moved to another one […] The trick is to be bored with a specific book, rather than the act of reading. Avoidance of boredom is the only worthy mode of action.” Permalink 11:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/ClYmMzeuX7 Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The division in politics can be summarized as between + Embedded, complexity-minded, multiscale/fractal localists (politics as an ecology/complex adaptive system) + Abstract one-dimensional universalists & monoculturalists (politics as a top-down engineering project) Permalink 6:46 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Note: When Arabo-Sunni-Islamists want to smear the LOCALISTS & minorities who want bottom-up self-determination, s.a. Christians, Shiites & oth minorities they use tags such as “right wing”, “sectarian”, “fascist”, etc. (Look at behavior of low-IQ fraud-propagandist @shadihamid) Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Friends, here is a program for denesting radicals using @WolframResearch’s Mathematica. It doesn’t work here but should in simpler cases. http://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/980264   Permalink 5:23 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The first vol of the INCERTO, Fooled by Randomness, was written ~20 years ago. https://twitter.com/aleksndr_a/status/1041960260846665728   Permalink 3:54 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@ejames_c Hilarious and good: the scent of bad psychology. https://putanumonit.com/2018/09/07/the-scent-of-bad-psychology/   (My favourite bit is probably the one with Nicholas Nassem Taleb’s Grandma). Permalink 7:12 PM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Again, I have NOTHING against chess players. Some have done great things (Nick Patterson, cc: @iosif_lazaridis), many traders, etc. But I have pbm allowing someone who is JUST a chess player to both fail elementary reasoning & use chess for credibility. https://twitter.com/BurntOutCase/status/1041693505326866433   Permalink 7:31 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr @Kasparov63 fails logical thinking/meta at many levels. He derives his “expertise” & fame not from intellectual contribution or risk wizardry, but from moving w/ B&W pieces. So we are entitled to wonder abt transferability of such knowledge to risk. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041528325037064192   Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@normonics If we abolish the electoral college We should also abolish the union 50 free states to manage their own business I say keep the electoral college, a beautiful piece of complex systems engineering enabling multiscale federalism Permalink 5:29 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Nicky the robot from Nicosia. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1041657820523978753   Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Lunch in Northern Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/dqiExl3rpD Permalink 4:11 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 @nntaleb Mr. Kasparov, unlike you Dr. Taleb is a man of integrity. Assad’s father actually blew up his home in one war years ago. But Taleb has principles and knows that these jihadist mercenaries from all over are ruining the area. Permalink 3:02 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr Gary Kasparov, @Kasparov63, I am currently in North Lebanon as I am writing these lines. Would you agree to come LIVE here if Assad is removed? Yes/No please. I am really fed up with bullshitters who don’t pay a price to the consequences of their actions. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041533709369991168   Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The only way you can be ethical & famous is if you use your reach to expose frauds in society that are *not* (yet) considered frauds & put your reputation at risk. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/naval/status/1041513555961438208   Permalink 1:22 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb As to numerical tricks pic.twitter.com/xLWf4VzMyu Permalink 12:58 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Bernanke mistook the risks accumulation that lead to the crisis for the “great moderation”, in other words got it backward. Anyone who takes him seriously has an mental problem. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1041384873989222400   Permalink 12:01 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Chabris has @cfchabris a study showing the memory of chess players being local to the game. Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Any systematic study? Permalink 3:54 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what’s the real life performance of chess players? How do they fare in, say science and business? Permalink 3:51 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb muzzled Permalink 12:26 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb To answer the usual idiot bringing up Popper https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037273239347703808   Permalink 11:45 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I thought chess players would think in more than one step. Before arguing whether “fascists” should be museled, How do you know if someone is “fascist” if you don’t let him express his opinions? …Or the best way to exercise fascism is to call people fascists to shut them up. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041376634446782467   Permalink 11:38 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb OK, there is a theorem for the proof of convergence. Herschfelds Convergence Theorem http://mathworld.wolfram.com/HerschfeldsConvergenceTheorem.html   Permalink 10:59 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@doshijatin 2/5 done ? Permalink 10:55 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1041301771556212737   Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb SUNDAY MATH RIDDLE, courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/x5ZGSxUMkD Permalink 4:32 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION The *phenomenology* of aging as at least partly from the asymmetry of 1) stuff you put into your body (risk of harm> risk of improvement), 2) the nonlinearity of its dose-response (large vs hormetic small dose). (This is 2 ½ years of meth) #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/6d17dO3osw Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Sep 2018

@Imamofpeace Some journalists lie even more than politicians. pic.twitter.com/J2Q2R15ICy Permalink 9:51 PM – 14 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen? My report *then*, to the Obama commission. All these talkers are still clueless about the reasons. https://www.academia.edu/37409070/Why_Did_The_Crisis_of_2008_Happen   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SXP8t3iaMo”>  pic.twitter.com/SXP8t3iaMo Permalink 2:44 AM – 14 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia for some araq and kebbe. pic.twitter.com/tK0b0gB4Hn Permalink 9:50 AM – 13 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Wrong. The Levant coastal areas spoke Greek not Aramaic. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1040190108782215170   Permalink 4:41 AM – 13 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Delenda MONSANTO. Thank you markets. Let the death spiral start. Bayer is down 30% over the past couple of months. There are >8000 lawsuits coming. Never ever build your business messing with science & smearing scientists. It all comes out. Monsanto shills are unprotected. pic.twitter.com/U00l6c2d1j Permalink 5:43 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3/ Friends, it is thrilling to see a group of rigorous & active Twitter pple correct a journalist on grounds of reason & rationality. The same happened when the Clev Clinic deleted some unempirical medical claims https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037518226278834177   Our crowd is swelling! Thanks @Twitter! Permalink 3:50 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb KETO DISCUSSION Ketogenesis doesn’t require low-carb consumption. Just infrequent feeding, and not too infrequent at that. Just skip breakfast. (Discussion around Antifragility and Convexity in Medicine) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   cc:@drjasonfung @MichaelSagnerMD @GuruAnaerobic ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sClNDVOb3c”>  pic.twitter.com/sClNDVOb3c Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb And the fool still doesn’t get that people insure the EFFECT not the CAUSE. Why is probability/risk so hard for journalists? https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1039946929214566403   Permalink 12:14 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The fact that ~½ taxes are paid by the 1% shd make anyone with ½ brain realize that there is a great deal of redistribution. In fact economists are just rent-seeking parasites w/no economic contribution and it is THEIR relatively high low-risk income that shd be redistributed Permalink 9:13 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb More evidence that economists don’t understand 1) humans, 2) redistribution & its side effects, 3) lack of envy on the part of noneconomists 4) much of anything else https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/1039326885136744449   Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb More Popper on the IYIs, the nudgers, the Platonic “experts”. Even gun control… pic.twitter.com/mt1XbtL9CZ Permalink 5:37 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The biggest irony is that what Soros calls his “Open Society” activity is about as un-Popperian as it gets. Permalink 4:45 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Karl Popper, in his Open Society, describes to a “T” the crowd of unelected patronizing “experts” who want to run the lives of people and call those who oppose them “populists”. Beautiful Plato vs Socrates passage. pic.twitter.com/gaTfAnSvZA Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I wonder how much money people have wasted paying for news & BS by journalists. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1039823401790189569   Permalink 3:51 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb You can even compute the time to COVFEFE, @QifaNabki https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/937035937485348865   Permalink 6:29 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Actually can be 31 characters and my answer is if you have only 30 and necessarily start with a letter. Permalink 6:21 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Elias, @QifaNabki the literary name is trigintuple or triacontad (30-tuple) in a 140 sized multiset, which should be (if you don’t start with a space) quite sizeable. pic.twitter.com/hhWmvaZ1cE Permalink 6:19 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Exercise in combinatorics. 1t step, use the English alphabet, 26 letters + space, ?,!,@,&, for a total of 30. 140 characters. Treat lower and upper case as equivalent. Second step, Markov Chain. add a ( under the condition that it closes before a period and that it closes. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1039674231380946944   Permalink 6:03 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principle 11: No public institution or agency should be created without an expiration date. pic.twitter.com/xlVD1RrYvD Permalink 4:13 PM – 11 Sep 2018

Rabah, Minority Rule, Tesla, Fake Squid Ink, Start a Business, Tracy Alloway, UK Thought Police, Sarsour, Monbiot | Twitter

@nntaleb Done! Changed subtitle again. Now copyediting & fight with copyeditors… pic.twitter.com/jZaathaYVD Permalink 3:03 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah, it seems isn’t just fabricating w/events but faking his resumé. Are others in the chain s.a. @jobahout @BenteScheller also liars? Permalink 1:42 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah, he who lies once is unreliable. Looks like you also misrepresenting your position? Are you a “professor”? https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=i7xThEIAAAAJ&hl=en   Permalink 1:22 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb G., we know Mr Rabah is tot. unreliable, even lunatic. Make the house of cards collapse w/those using him as source.https://twitter.com/GeorgeJNasr/status/908056627219234816   Permalink 1:06 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rabah,consider in replies that followers are v. intelligent &detect your unreliability in the chain of Syria newshttps://twitter.com/makramrabah/status/908043824479571968   Permalink 12:39 PM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb From SITG pic.twitter.com/5kNA2dz5zr Permalink 11:39 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Another “policy” fellow, Joseph Bahout @jobahout (whom I’ve met) at, of all places @CarnegieEndow disseminating from same dubious source. pic.twitter.com/Ig8EYZjFJW Permalink 8:12 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb To show you how messed up our information flow on Syria, see this “policy” specialist @BenteScheller citing a liar. pic.twitter.com/3x6RUEU3Ng Permalink 7:47 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Now that I am done with Mr Makram Rabah (see thread above) beware that his posts and journalism are read as source on the Syrian situation. Permalink 7:03 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Now that I am done with Mr Makram Rabah (see thread above) beware that his posts and journalism are read as source on the Syrian situation. Permalink 7:03 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr Makram Rabah, pls explain why your journalism shd be read when: 1) You misdefine terms, mislabel & don’t care 2) You make up facts Permalink 6:37 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb To assess you need to compare # killed while on autopilot vs # killed w/o autopilot, not just look at one single lurid case.https://twitter.com/gedownie/status/907957444331966471   Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, my participation in the UAE literary festival was pro-bono. Why are you lying about $$? Why are you a Liar? Liar. Permalink 6:15 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, why does your inability to define terms makes you LIE about “Gulf money”? Can you show evidence of $$? Why are you lying? Permalink 6:11 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Scary if true. Looks like it is true.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/907941612625518593   Permalink 5:22 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah are you aware that random labels do not constitute an explanation of why you misdefine very elementary terms? Permalink 4:31 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah you are throwing more random labels to explain the misuse of a label. Can you write down a simple expl., as in 6th grade? Permalink 4:24 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah you are not explaining why one shd heed someone like you or @iyad_elbaghdadi soooo ignorant to misdefine elementary terms. Permalink 4:16 AM – 13 Sep 2017

@nntaleb So Mr @makramrabah if you mislabel something so elementary, why should anyone read your other crap? Please explain. Permalink 1:49 PM – 12 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mr @makramrabah, racism is imparting skills to a race, not studying population migrations. Are all Syrian rebels as ignorant as you? Permalink 1:18 PM – 12 Sep 2017

@RogueRad Why I think doctors should read books by @nntaleb http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2017/09/12/why-doctors-should-read-books-by-nassim-taleb/   cc @drjohnm Permalink 10:34 AM – 12 Sep 2017

@nntaleb If you reject unfounded blame, you must also reject unjustified praise. Permalink 8:53 AM – 12 Sep 2017

@RandPaul Where is the anti-war left demanding the wars end? Where is the constitional conservative right demanding Congress reclaim its war powers? Permalink 4:25 PM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb On my wayhttps://twitter.com/harrydcrane/status/906555847219859459   Permalink 12:31 PM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My take pic.twitter.com/Z3o48RcMvK Permalink 4:57 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Probability Brain Teaser du Jour. cc:@mikeandallie ,@LorenzoWVilla , @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/Uj3p2K2VvJ Permalink 4:27 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@SameeraKhan While we mourn the lives lost 16 yrs ago today, we should also remind ourselves of this gem. Stop funding, arming, & glorifying terrorists. pic.twitter.com/JC1wCl3D9o Permalink 2:39 AM – 11 Sep 2017

@ThomasSowell Quote from Black Rednecks & White Liberals: https://buff.ly/2vk1w8R   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cGIAkn16UA”>  pic.twitter.com/cGIAkn16UA Permalink 10:03 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb When the beard is black, take the reasoning, ignore conclusions. When gray, take both reasoning & conclusions. When white, just conclusions. Permalink 8:18 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Someone in population genetics wd detect the J2 haplogroup, the “Med” gene. I suspect the J2a subclade, coatal (Greco-Phoenician-Roman Army) Permalink 5:11 AM – 10 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My kind of party. Mare Nostrum.https://twitter.com/scaramucci/status/906600491307687937   Permalink 7:32 PM – 9 Sep 2017

@HarryDCrane Full slate for this year’s Foundations of #Probability seminar starting Mon with @nntaleb — Central problems with probability pic.twitter.com/VbJ6k7fN5H Permalink 9:32 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Above & below shd explain why recent paper on 1200+ genes determining intelligence is utter BS cc:@charlesmurrayhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/padzf3mtekuuf76/Error%20and%20Dimensionality.pptx.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 6:02 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Friends, added an Appendix to the minority rule. For comments. Is it easy to grasp? pic.twitter.com/J0fCc91wf5 Permalink 5:31 AM – 9 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 6) You can do history but one needs to qualify conclusions & exclude some class of statements. Permalink 8:19 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 4) Historians have no clue about survivorship bias, so they mistake visible properties for properties. 5) Historians ignore asymmetries. Permalink 8:18 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Historians mistake an upper/lower bound for an absolute date. For instance “earliest settlement found” for earliest settlement” Permalink 7:53 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Practically all data prior to the first war are suspicious. Permalink 7:47 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb War data are pulled out of the hat. Historians are only reliable for (some) anecdotes. Or as we saw with Mary Beard, good at bu***tting.https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/906147773384404992   Permalink 7:14 AM – 8 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This fraudster Julie Gunlock starts from the basis that anti-GMO is anti-science. Not just clueless but dangerous. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/FDRLST/status/905966418063130624   Permalink 6:39 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, wuss! It’s unethical.They will do it to others Select a random few(5) who made false claims,make their lives miserable for 1y Never stop https://twitter.com/TolstoySays/status/905956048778887168   Permalink 6:30 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@NoArtInPolitics Headline sounds like something @nntaleb might sayhttps://twitter.com/wsj/status/905933745529737216   Permalink 4:29 PM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Clear evidence of (statistical) bias Can be attributed to 1) NYT doctors up the list, 2) NYT overweighs cappuccino & latte bookstores.https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/905852971233288192   Permalink 11:11 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Mechanical skills matter less interpreted as Germans have no mechamical skills. In Fooled by Randomness: there is randomness -> itsallrandom Permalink 10:09 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb For a chief investment officer, Mark Yusko makes a 6-year old misinterpretation. Is this typical or an outlier?https://twitter.com/markyusko/status/905836528185643008   Permalink 10:06 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@iMetaldog ex ancillary parts for proper engine functionality there are smaller # of moving part in EM v ICE tho not apple to apple comp to begin with! pic.twitter.com/Uk3SbS8irD Permalink 9:30 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Expertise in roulette gambling requires much more probability than carpentry; Pop genetics require much more probability than biology! Permalink 7:22 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Announcement. For personal reasons, we had to move the Real World Risk 6 to November 13. http://realworldrisk.com/pictorial_view_of_the_program_by_dhaval   Permalink 6:52 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Have you visited a gas station “when power is down everywhere”?https://twitter.com/SFLTVBossMan/status/905773082249494528   Permalink 5:45 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Tesla is computer w/wheels,~5% of moving parts of BMW Mechanical expertise is archaic. I’ve rarely seen softw/hardware designed in Europe.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/905763378437730305   Permalink 5:14 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Show this to your journo friends (if any) to avoid @tracyalloway’s conflation of “criticism” & strawman deformationhttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 4:41 AM – 7 Sep 2017

@alacunha Have you tried this? Choquinhos com tinta. Baby sepia cooked in ink. Typical of algarve. You have to go there for the real deal pic.twitter.com/2KC7bvjkiT Permalink 5:51 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This is real squid ink, tonight. pic.twitter.com/8yfwikdxwj Permalink 4:44 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Last thing we need to hear is French are Meds. They are Reverse-Meds. Only Meds in S. parts that spoke no French (Provencal, Nicois, etc.) Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb There is a discussion of taboos against mixing fish and cheese in Med. I am still confused. https://www.facebook.com/13012333374/posts/10153194618113375   Permalink 2:11 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb My kind of lecture.https://twitter.com/_youhadonejob1/status/905424652595494912   Permalink 1:39 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, no, no, no. Never, never any cheese on Med with fish products. You get deported from Sicily/Calabria (if you are lucky).https://twitter.com/mikaelv80/status/905520302452596736   Permalink 1:27 PM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Those who believe clmate chnge is real Those who explain everything by CC Those for whom policies shdbe precautionary whether CC real or not Permalink 10:27 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 1-Occupations in which one is more dependent on opinion of colleagues than end users or axiomatic base (math) end up rotting. (#SummarySITG) Permalink 7:12 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb 1-Occupations in which one is more dependent on opinion of colleagues than end users degrades. ex: journalism, bureaucr, (#SummarySITG) Permalink 7:06 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Zeus appreciated my sacrifices; is making my wish come true that MSM self-destructs. He invented @kurteichenwald to accelerate the process. pic.twitter.com/MGLTCW6ks9 Permalink 6:19 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@DemosKypros Istanbul pogroms against the Greeks – 6-7 September ’55 #Greece #Turkey #Historyhttp://bit.ly/2gGmDb5   Permalink 6:03 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@HaroonChowdry We need clearer language to help distinguish. “Squid ink pasta” (i.e. squid ink in the pasta dough) vs. “pasta w/ squid ink sauce” Permalink 5:59 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Alert: This is fake squid ink (colored pasta). Real squid ink leaves stain marks on the dish.https://twitter.com/simoncarucci/status/905395836623970304   Permalink 4:49 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Will @kurteichenwald’s climate change “math” also prove a Trump-Russian conspiracy as is; or does it need additional variables?https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/905206621588119552   Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@nntaleb The whole point is that this is not “criticism”. Strawman is NOT criticism. Permalink 3:55 AM – 6 Sep 2017

@Wataizo This Eichenwald character better hope @nntaleb doesn’t get a hold of himhttps://twitter.com/Black999sunday/status/905160233906970624   Permalink 1:12 PM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Certainly @tracyalloway needs a straightforward lesson on the difference between news and fake news.https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 12:54 PM – 5 Sep 2017

@ArgaizR New paper @Cell_Metabolism. Beautiful example of anti-fragility. Volatility yields the best results! @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/8nTvxgEmvT Permalink 11:12 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb How @tracyalloway rigs her votehttps://twitter.com/robinwigg/status/905080835031883778   Permalink 7:52 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb There is more substance/rigor in every line of the INCERTO than what journo @tracyalloway has written all her life https://medium.com/incerto   Permalink 7:21 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Got rich FROM politics +Helped crony capitalism +… Permalink 6:46 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Gave Wall Street the largest bonus pool in history in 2010 +Fought Skin in the Game rules +Fueled Identity Politics +Fed the IYI class Permalink 6:44 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb +Helped AlQaeda/extinction of NE Christians +Tried to destroy federalism +Let IYI bureaucrats “nudge” citizens +Overall enemy of libertyhttps://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/905059454554693632   Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I am calling Ron Paul, “A Roman among Greeks”. (a Pun on dedication of TBS to Benoit Mandelbrot:”A Greek among Romans”) pic.twitter.com/qs6j8V1H0k Permalink 5:53 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb For ergodicity and wealth, see this https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Which is whatIwantedtotalktoyouabout Permalink 5:43 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb I am shuttling from Leb to NY for my Tuesday class. Today is my 1rst lecture on Fat Tails.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/821374183234031616   Permalink 5:01 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb “The Romans judged their political system by asking not whether it made sense but whether it worked.” The clear minded @holland_tom Permalink 4:27 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Some idiot (finance prof) was arguing “had Trump invested his inheritance in market…” No, investors != market!https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 4:17 AM – 5 Sep 2017

@nntaleb No, do not join an NGO to save the world. Just take risks, start a business. https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/taRzkoCSfw”>  pic.twitter.com/taRzkoCSfw Permalink 9:32 AM – 4 Sep 2017

@nntaleb BS vendor @JeffDSachs tweeting to me a narrative betw. Houston flood & Texas climate policy. Economists have a severe difficulty with rigor. Permalink 5:52 AM – 4 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Connecting in an airport lounge in Morocco. Only way I get privacy on phone is speaking in Lebanese dialect. Nobody seems to understand it. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Sep 2017

@bjmdolal @nntaleb only person I can think of that this applies to.https://twitter.com/robertgreene/status/902156853823623168   Permalink 7:10 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb This guy gets it. The value of the lawsuit is in the information you can get out of it. As with the Monsanto papers.https://twitter.com/ConLawWarrior/status/904110967738466308   Permalink 4:02 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Meanwhile my fight ag the UK thought police: I keep insulting them; they tried & tried & tried & failed to stop me, https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-is-broken-in-the-uk-intellectual-sphere-7efc9a1f154a   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/CI0AuYqMoR”>  pic.twitter.com/CI0AuYqMoR Permalink 3:58 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Nothing sad about it. Lawsuits are the ONLY defense mechanism for the individual against powerful groups. Thank you, American legal system!https://twitter.com/charlesmurray/status/904108850596515842   Permalink 3:39 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb You need tail events for the revelation of elementary properties. Visibly only the store knew that people didn’t eat vegan.https://twitter.com/MattOswaltVA/status/903834627768324096   Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Sep 2017

@AD_WHITMAN Roll your big a** down to Venezuela for a year. Come back and tell me how the #VenezuelaDiet (starving due to socialism) worked out for you. pic.twitter.com/r0UUqv4sJC Permalink 10:22 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@VergilDen “Not everything happens for a reason but everything that survives, survives for a reason” NNT Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Exccccccccellent question. Lindy being a noise filtering mechanism lowers every year the probability of spurious survival.https://twitter.com/DoctorLex/status/904000010899132416   Permalink 8:52 AM – 2 Sep 2017

@nntaleb People were not getting that the (alleged) food costs savings by GMOs (at huge risks) were DWARFED by more efficient food distribution. Permalink 7:39 PM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Bezos got that distrib =up to 83% food costs. Focus on distr, not risky “tech” product. Organic cheaper, GMO dead.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-01/amazon-has-twice-many-fulfillment-centers-rest-entire-us-retail-industry   Permalink 7:32 PM – 1 Sep 2017

@GuruAnaerobic “No BS Trader” @nntaleb vs IYI academic, BBC luvvie, “diversity”, imbecillo-bullshito-classico pic.twitter.com/pIuBtauDkv Permalink 8:04 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Friday Semitic Philology. RE @lsarsour: Sarsour means “pimp” in mod. Hebrew frm Aramaic סַרְסוּר (with a Samekh), Cricket with a Tsadeh. pic.twitter.com/wdguyqOlJr Permalink 7:16 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb When someone makes an announcement saying “I have a great relationship with my wife”, you know a divorce is getting close.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/903614451999539200   Permalink 6:50 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@nntaleb Sarsour means cockroach in Arabic. It is very, very unfair to cockroaches.https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/903593280822173698   Permalink 5:22 AM – 1 Sep 2017

@normonics Classic @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/4uru8Ol6bB Permalink 6:26 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb We think alike on this @rorysutherland pic.twitter.com/e242tAeIva Permalink 6:16 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I like to buy products made by egomaniac people. Or, at least people called arrogant. pic.twitter.com/c8W09vsfIK Permalink 6:11 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 13 Coffee Shops Around Phoenicia That Will Charm You https://www.beirut.com/l/52816   via @BeirutCityGuide Permalink 4:58 PM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Some marketing/framing savvy pple figured out that the most effective way to build a fascist movement is to call it: antifascist. Permalink 1:08 AM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Problem w/academic parasites isn’t just disconnect from the real world; it’s their lack of awareness of it. #SkinInTheGamehttps://twitter.com/drtomflynn/status/902647984000827392   Permalink 12:48 AM – 31 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Now if I called Monbiot an idiot, it is because of his promoting AlQaeda propaganda abt the Syrian war & fake stories abt Aleppo. Permalink 8:35 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My idea is to WORRY about our actions on climate out of PRECAUTION, not systematically attribute events to it. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 6:31 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb From Silent Risk: the Lucretius problem. People don’t realize that systems deliver new maxima. pic.twitter.com/xtu5tLeNIp Permalink 5:48 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Point is that idiots like @GeorgeMonbiot are attributing Houston floods to Climate Change, rather than bad understanding of tail probability Permalink 4:59 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Think tanks are natural lobbies w/a facade of “research” Their cover allows them to censor dissent from monoculturehttps://nyti.ms/2whLSts   Permalink 4:43 AM – 30 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nero di seppia ( spaghetti con farro) pic.twitter.com/Hw5yOavHMY Permalink 5:39 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Chapters frm nxt book If the author doesn’t surprise the reader w/something every few pages, books & authors diehttps://medium.com/incerto   Permalink 3:28 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb When people talk about 500 y floods or 100 year rain, they are klueless abt tail distribution. The empirical distribution is NOT empirical! pic.twitter.com/XdrLf1gfgN Permalink 1:40 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I have never read #Antifragile under olive trees. I will try next week.https://twitter.com/petranovskaja/status/901747046113304576   Permalink 12:31 PM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Another benefit of Brexit seen 5 years ago in Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/tophtucker/status/902595164669177860   Permalink 11:35 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb No, and it is not a violation of the First Am. if I block people like you who tweet stupid things to me; private workspace != public. Permalink 6:54 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Freedom of Expression is a central UNCONDITIONAL symmetry: You are allowed speech if I am allowed speech pic.twitter.com/iWeGP21DcO Permalink 6:18 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Main MARKER for group to be fascist-shmascist-smthng_ist regardless of what they call themselves left/right/diagonal: Public Expression Permalink 5:51 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The very idea of freedom of expression is to allow someone to tell others things they do not like to hear. Permalink 5:24 AM – 29 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words, see the surviving population after n generations, here 21 & compare to common processes. Permalink 6:15 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Trying to dabble w/population genetics under fat tails! So far, some intuitions. Some work for us, @DrCirillo cc: @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/zXsGCmow6O Permalink 6:12 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Free speech is so robust intellectually that arguments to try to suspend it are inconsistent w/one another & the rest of the corpus.https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/902252554154762240   Permalink 2:10 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb E bella la lingua italiana: “Chi troppo in alto sal cade sovente precipitevolissimevolmente” Permalink 12:51 PM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Letting someone w a razor is a sign of trust. Permalink 7:09 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Kalabrez’ lesson facima a barba curazol’ pic.twitter.com/73G2rDaIZ6 Permalink 7:07 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This problem came out of the statement (as generalization) that: P/E ratio of the market != weighted average P/E ratio of ind companies.https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/902047463351177216   Permalink 5:43 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Journalist Interrogated, Fired For Story Linking CIA And Syria Weapons Flights | Zero Hedgehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-28/journalist-interrogated-fired-story-linking-cia-and-syria-weapons-flights   Permalink 5:23 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “…nec alte cadere nec graviter potest” Publilius Permalink 5:20 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you want to punish an enemy, help put him on a pedestal. He will hurt himself falling from it. Permalink 4:57 AM – 28 Aug 2017

@JohnJSSoriano .@nntaleb has explained this well. Can’t make projection of worst case based on previous worst event. Wouldn’t have worked for prev event!https://twitter.com/stealthygeek/status/901885696075542531   Permalink 7:05 PM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 2:37 PM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Added to The Logic of Risk Taking. People w skin in the game who take risks don’t like tail risk. https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Bah4FJsiFZ”>  pic.twitter.com/Bah4FJsiFZ Permalink 7:35 AM – 27 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Explains that such probability-risk experiments assume the person will never take risks again. https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/U0dq3iSBeQ”>  pic.twitter.com/U0dq3iSBeQ Permalink 12:17 PM – 26 Aug 2017

@obradovits1 @nntaleb ‘s def of ergodicity is consistent with what I lrnt during my pstgrad stdies. However, @nntaleb provides a new way to thnk. abt it.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/901507397755297792   Permalink 11:31 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This imbecile is digging deeper, using a …1928 def. Mr Ma cKenzie go back to doing what you do and let other people on twitter work. pic.twitter.com/X3UuAJHcfv Permalink 11:11 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The sign of a failed academic is referring to his “thesis” as contribution. Perhaps @ole_b_peters can answer you what is meant by ergodicity Permalink 10:22 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@ole_b_peters Spot-on. Meaningless experiments. Insurance benefits buyer and seller over time, not across the ensemble. http://bit.ly/2s1JuD4   Permalink 9:58 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In which a Microsoft person bull***ts abt work he never read & concepts he knows nothing abt.https://twitter.com/mknz/status/901479974724554756   Permalink 9:52 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes. (Cutting through the BS in social science) pic.twitter.com/1FZF8TxqCM Permalink 9:01 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words: risk aversion is what is needed to make things ergodic.https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 8:55 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “Risk Aversion” is fictional nonsense to employ psychologists. https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/EEjUViSaL7″>  pic.twitter.com/EEjUViSaL7 Permalink 8:54 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@nntaleb LOCALISM “At Fed level, libertarian; state, Republican; local, Democrat; family/friends, socialist.” @geoffreydgraham citing broth. Vincent. Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Aug 2017

@mikeandallie A algebra / geometry project for kids inspired by @nntaleb and @CutTheKnotMath : https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/08/26/a-project-for-kids-inspired-by-nassim-taleb-and-alexander-bogomolny/   #math #mathchat cc: @KelseyAHE Permalink 6:21 AM – 26 Aug 2017

Atlanta, Borat, Minority Rule, Monsanto, Ergodicity, Revolutions, Rationality, Armenians, Betrayal, Tesla, Fermat, @GadSaad | Twitter

@nntaleb OK OK La Grotta pic.twitter.com/2aFM44a2dW Permalink 5:47 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 75% of @newtgingrich’s book (from page 80 on) revolves around the Intellectual Yet Idiot IYI problem.https://twitter.com/AlexPappas/status/901171827799719936   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta coffee conversation w/ @geoffreydgraham @justinno @WhiteSwanof87 @su_js1 (a lot of coffee). pic.twitter.com/oLB5ayZFOR Permalink 10:10 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Logic of Risk Taking”https://medium.com/p/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Rephrase her question to “how many Greco-Roman classics were written by nonWhites” to”How many were written by blonds & nonMeds”.About zero. Permalink 3:08 AM – 25 Aug 2017

@lilbabykeffiyeh @nntaleb might have knowledge on this. Permalink 8:59 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@KennyAngel11 Nassim Taleb looked like Borathttps://abbeylink.wordpress.com/2017/08/24/nassim-taleb-looked-like-borat/   Permalink 12:54 PM – 24 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy Geopolitical Institutions conflate relations between countries with relations between governments @nntalebhttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 9:43 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Languages mutate. We can watch the process of mutation with out own eyes.https://twitter.com/BrittPettibone/status/900707817606094848   Permalink 6:36 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb 2) People don’t get is that you don’t assess a car by *speed* but *change* in speed. (Second order effect, convexity = antifragile) Permalink 6:23 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Minority Rule actually debunks the Aryan vs Semitic theory. Meds are Meds, Nordics are Nordics https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/fZYFV1dvUv”>  pic.twitter.com/fZYFV1dvUv Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Atlanta. Any recommendations? Squid ink, etc. Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb If you want people to pay close attention to your posts, block them on Twitter. Permalink 2:58 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fr: un clou en chasse un autre. Permalink 1:53 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Not a very good day to be Monsanto. An Italian proverb: one needs a nail to displace a nail. Companies, not govt, remove bad apples.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/900454905554579456   Permalink 1:43 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question. Permalink 12:57 PM – 23 Aug 2017

@Acho_Wendy History is largely peace punctuated by wars, rather than wars punctuated by peace @nntaleb cc: @SebGorkahttps://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 10:34 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Common sense wd say that if in the past censorship was seen as a thing of the “right”, those we really need to worry will be on the “left”https://twitter.com/julianassange/status/900308121024954370   Permalink 10:23 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Main advantage of Tesla: for daily life, we benefit more from acceleration (for safety) than max speed, since there are speed limits.https://twitter.com/mjd1735/status/900106814187950081   Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@rmnth “I can use data to disprove a proposition, never to prove one.” ~ @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/ProfFeynman/status/900388591259353092   Permalink 9:17 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The bon pensant Cambridge dons… pic.twitter.com/NLnWyAbipV Permalink 5:57 AM – 23 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The central chapter of Skin in the Game: explaining ergodicity @ole_b_peters Is it easy to get? pic.twitter.com/g6dVDSRILG Permalink 2:18 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@HarrisonSearles The American empire cannot impose a top-down peace on Afghanistan. Peace can only come bottom-up. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   via @nntaleb Permalink 12:22 PM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Logical/statistical error: Revolutions are preceded by resentment, but resentment not nec. followed by revolutions. see #FooledbyRandomnesshttps://twitter.com/alrik3/status/900055165713166337   Permalink 11:13 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb For years I have refused to f. spell expletives in my book, e.g. “f*** you money”, etc. From now on, for consistency, will do so on Twitter. Permalink 10:49 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb She is using Twitter, and, I surmise, a computer and, I also surmise, software.https://twitter.com/greenwoodae/status/900033287648714752   Permalink 9:38 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Problem of the education system: bitter college profs & parasites of the system drill into the head of people that wealth = explotationhttps://twitter.com/DougMartin17/status/900028062200475649   Permalink 9:28 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There should be no privilege for being wealthy. But there should be no shame, no guilt for being wealthy.https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/899989870478856192   Permalink 8:57 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I support @PamelaGeller w/her censorship by PayPal. But she is v. IGNORANT: unlike Salafis, Shiites don’t Christians/Jews as “infidels”. Permalink 8:09 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb BS Busting Du Jour: More fundamental mistakes in Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci high noise /no signal account.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 7:34 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Arabic name for Med was “Baḣr er-Rum”, Roman(Byzantine) sea. Like Persian (->”Arabian”) Gulf, censored from textbooks. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2017

@ExoThinker Your daily does of WTF: Nassim Taleb and other nerds discussing Talmud and Aramaic.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/899267232542453760   Permalink 10:50 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”https://medium.com/p/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “How to be Rational about Rationality”https://medium.com/p/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Is there a Ashura expert in the room? I wonder if my diacritical are right for the poem about skin in the game. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/8uXC3gnhJ4 Permalink 1:48 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Challenge a BSvendorusingscience who uses eclipse to make us believe we know climate: Predict temperature in NYC at 12:PM Oct 21 2017https://twitter.com/MuhammedKambal/status/899718155483979776   Permalink 12:53 PM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Typo! pic.twitter.com/718kTSNTTg Permalink 11:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb LESSON Looking like a “victim” will enbolden your enemies & make your cowardly friends look the other way. Wusses are never good to losers Permalink 10:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Quiz du jour a la @CutTheKnotMath @LorenzoWVilla pic.twitter.com/eSYgojapcs Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Incidentally, classical Arabic has a word, Wiq7, for both rude and right. Permalink 8:56 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@John07331405 It does mean u are rude, I think u are pretty rude. I also think you are right about everything (xcpt some comment a long tm ago about Eire) Permalink 8:24 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Average price/ average earnings != Average( If E>0, P/E)https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/899647893379756032   Permalink 8:17 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I don’t understand English Middle Class English. What does “You are rude” mean? Permalink 7:57 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In Levantine, 3a “to” is from Aramaic or older N Semitic. Arabic/ South Semitic equivalent is “ila”, similar to Heb “la”.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/899605015731601409   Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mary Beard retweets n accusations of “misogyny” & articles in press & claims she never accused me of “misogyny” Historians shdn’t Fabricate! Permalink 5:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb This should refresh your memory. For a “historian”, you keep being caught with misrepresentations. pic.twitter.com/Wv4SlVoYoV Permalink 5:33 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@DaronLarson “Being nice to others reveals character if and only if it is optional.” @nntaleb #kindness #magnanimity Permalink 5:00 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb NOTHING academic in calling pple “misogynists” for dissenting, using Lewinski/Rowling & misrepresenting debate @wmarybeard you’re a shamhttps://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/899597706020007936   Permalink 4:52 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@jasperhamill I’ve seen people’s apologies used against them. Say sorry and you prove your guilt eternally. There is no forgiveness. Permalink 3:58 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Lesson I leared from UK thoughtnazis. Appease/correct them w/”I am not saying…”; they destroy you Be aggressive, disrespect: they freakout Permalink 3:51 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Evidence it is skin ink: stain on plates (and on your teeth), uneven coloring. Otherwise it is just dyed pasta.https://twitter.com/VinceBSbuster/status/899578318701416448   Permalink 3:28 AM – 21 Aug 2017

@nntaleb A project is needed to bring back North Africa to its preArab Mediterranean kultchurhttps://twitter.com/xhos1982/status/899383122009223168   Permalink 2:34 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The patch in Northern Syria is gone. Because Obama. MSM are despicable. pic.twitter.com/ZdXdzpQHm9 Permalink 1:52 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb The Armenians have been victim of a second ethnic cleansing in Aleppo by Obama’s “rebels”. You need to call things by their name.https://twitter.com/humanitasromana/status/899370286231040002   Permalink 1:50 PM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Ron Paul @RonPaul Permalink 11:09 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Donald Trump’s @realDonaldTrump irreversible mistake: betrayal. You can recover from many mistakes. Betrayal you can only do once. Permalink 10:24 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Trying to explain what people don’t get about decentralization, why I loved Brexit! pic.twitter.com/QR87nNHHex Permalink 8:56 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Then here mistranslated should be “when a puny man kills a hero” pic.twitter.com/2gPFBzxVwa Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the Game is not literal, Bava Kama 84a 3ayn ta7ata 3ayn (incidentally, in Aramaic) pic.twitter.com/INkXFj60jT Permalink 6:49 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Unlike Klueless Massimo BSing on scientism, we ACTUALLY looked at what historical data can & cannot say. @DrCirillo https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315   Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Klueless Massimo doesn’t even know what SCIENTISM is. By masturbating w/other philosophers one can’t understand anything in the real world. Permalink 6:04 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb My motto has always been: Debate the audience, not the person. Don’t even try to convince someone that he or she is wrong. Permalink 6:02 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Neither Antisemitic Nordic Supremacists Nor Arab Nationalists Will Like”https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 5:30 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@zzap Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s recent interview on work, slavery, and skin in the game on @EconTalker is sO good http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/08/nassim_nicholas_1.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8xDPmmMB11″>  pic.twitter.com/8xDPmmMB11 Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb One shall not use science outside the strict domains it itself defines. pic.twitter.com/4RrD9t9vQJ Permalink 4:42 AM – 20 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “In investments, better to sell out one year too early than one day too late.” My friend and banker Joe Audi Permalink 1:53 PM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Can someone explain to me why Ibn Khaldoun is not banned in Arabian countries? pic.twitter.com/LI5aSQQTXX Permalink 9:14 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@CharlieHoefer Nassim’s Aryan twitter followers are not happy with him this morning… Permalink 8:58 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb – L’intolleranza vince sempre: il dispotismo della minoranza http://wp.me/p56cLj-3eK   @vocidallestero Permalink 7:47 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb First week of @TeslaMotors. Great to have a gas station at home. MAIN DRAWBACK: no squeegee of windshield when you refill ! pic.twitter.com/JjpE9udB2Z Permalink 7:29 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Lebanese Arabists & Arab Nationalists Will Not Like”.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, point is Phoenicians were genetically close to Greeks. Are all other “White” Supremacists as stupid as you ? Permalink 6:02 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Something Nordic Supremacists Will Not Like”https://medium.com/p/something-nordic-supremacists-will-not-like-44d99e8a4188   Permalink 5:28 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Catholic MEANS secular.https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 3:53 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You can see what killed Mediterraneanism, right there.https://twitter.com/BrilliantMaps/status/898850780333133824   Permalink 3:44 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Even his email was disabled by Google.https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/898730013037477889   Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Of course there are other options, s.a. Burkean “small c”, etc. But that’s not what I am trying to figure out. Permalink 6:37 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb MSM lies, smear Bannon. Bannon was against warmongers! In Syria, Afghanistan, etc. I vouch! He hates INTERVENTIONISTAS w/o #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/ezlmu9dsqC Permalink 4:09 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mediterraneanism pic.twitter.com/1SQaFR4KDc Permalink 3:44 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Which group best represent your political “orientation”? Permalink 3:17 PM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Was asked if am “right” or “left” +No power over citizens, neither Gov nor Corps +Local >Global (Federalism) +particular >Universal +1st Am. Permalink 9:49 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb How to make a weapons lobbying slush fund. No wonder @MiddleEastInst loves war in Syria. https://interc.pt/2vGw0jK   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qpdZQx1Y7I”>  pic.twitter.com/qpdZQx1Y7I Permalink 8:39 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb An illustration of the BIAS-VARIANCE tradeoff or why in some situations being “wrong” is better than being imprecise. (Superstitions) pic.twitter.com/GCSoTGcBg3 Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb You detect Monsanto shills such as Folta (aside frm recent proof of payments): they supports BOTH GMOs & Glyphosate What connects the 2? Permalink 6:17 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb There is nothing IRRATIONAL per se in “believing” in SANTA CLAUS @rorysutherland pic.twitter.com/MJyyRZlzAd Permalink 5:07 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Why “rationality” as described by unrigorous BS vendors is not compatible with axioms of rationality. No rationality without #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/KwD3IpnqFN Permalink 4:58 AM – 18 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Fermat was an amateur, a side activity (he was a lawyer by day). He would have loved the endless supply of brainteasers from @CutTheKnotMathhttps://twitter.com/QuantaMagazine/status/898216622447624192   Permalink 3:18 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Bye2tol 2el 2atil wbyemshe bi-jnezto “He murders then attends the funeral of his victims”https://twitter.com/alarabiya_eng/status/898268838239899649   Permalink 2:25 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Mr Bianchi @WhitesPhD, no ad hominem for “Finance professors” is for bullshitters who 1) can’t “do”& trade, 2) can’t be scientists. Gabish? Permalink 1:01 PM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Notice that it was not terrorists but a van attacking people in #Barcelona. pic.twitter.com/L4VZC56BJY Permalink 11:23 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Salute to @GadSaad for having the highest of virtues: frankness & intellectual courage. Let’s support him in his fight for freedom of speech Permalink 10:17 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Living with an oversensitive BS detector pic.twitter.com/EwrehX7oLS Permalink 8:32 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb “Would”. Same academics who were certain that “If Trump were elected…”https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/898202340791992320   Permalink 8:20 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@normonics is this about it? pic.twitter.com/NwKMvNenSS Permalink 7:15 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@tolzasso media bias: turn the discussion about representativeness in populations into a sexist attack by @nntaleb #wtfhttps://goo.gl/9741Fz   Permalink 6:11 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asinum fricat = الطنجرة لاقت غطاها Permalink 5:51 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Asinus asimum fricate, or, in Fat Tony’s language: bullshitter supports bullshitter.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/896025438694367233   Permalink 5:24 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb In other words, it increases distances when they are small, and decrease the larger ones… Permalink 5:05 AM – 17 Aug 2017

@nntaleb Something about PCA analyses: they preserve order but may not scale distances properly, compared to differential entropy. @iosif_lazaridis pic.twitter.com/HYFVz4zI6L Permalink 5:00 AM – 17 Aug 2017

Left, Received Ideas, Minority Rule, Naive Interventionism, Flamboyance

@nntaleb Statistically, the terrorists who killed the largest number of Americans were from Saudi Barbaria. Just a reminder. Permalink 12:41 PM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Who’s coming to my Cambridge tawk? We can sample potential topic. Permalink 3:32 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Genes and languages don’t line up necessarily! See Turkey, Cyprus, USA, Mexico, Egypt, etc. @Lekapenos @kingdomofvan @ghchammas @PZalloua Permalink 12:43 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Friday, my talk on Fat Tails at Darwin College in Cambridge, UK. Should I change topic & talk abt ancient Med? http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/67301   Permalink 12:10 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb There are as many definitions of “Fat Tails” as… We settled on “true fat tails” (Paretan, hard) & nonParetan (soft) fat tails. @DrCirillo Permalink 12:02 AM – 25 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Much of the population seem to come from the North, the “Aryan” Asia Minor, aside from the sea. @ghchammas @PZalloua Permalink 11:28 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 4) Unlike genetic theories, low-dimensional genetic analyses focusing on Haplogroups for populations very robust statistically. Permalink 11:24 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Linguistic categorizations post Greenberg fail miserably with Semitic languages, owing to cross terms/mutations Permalink 11:24 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) So theory by Salibi is bogus. Myth 2: Contra SciAm (not “scientific”), little Arab origin/blood in Western Levant ~ elsewhere in Med. Permalink 11:23 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) With geneticist @PZalloua, busting a few myths about the Levant. Myth 1: Population of Levant is “Semitic”.PreIslamic population European Permalink 11:19 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Wine in Akkadian @Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/Y321LxOAdA Permalink 12:40 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The word wine comes from Phenician Yayn (Oinos), from Akkadian Inu. But also 7mer (see Ugaritic). @Extrachelle pic.twitter.com/e2FNAubKp3 Permalink 12:38 PM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Basically, resist equating injustice and some static IYI measure of inequality.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46#.357e7qgy0   Permalink 7:46 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb If you’re over 30 and *need* to ever show or use a measure of your IQ, then tautologically it is the wrong measure. Permalink 5:13 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I meant Charlie Munger Permalink 3:58 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A real IQ test is one (Reverse engineered): An old Greek peasant would pass, Hume, Voltaire wd pass, D Munger wd pass, & P Krugman wd fail Permalink 2:46 AM – 24 Jan 2017

@nntaleb NEVER MISREPRESENT AN ENEMY’S POSITION Redeading Hammurabi’s c:false accusations are as punishable as the crime https://www.facebook.com/13012333374/posts/10153441737168375   Permalink 9:07 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Interventionism is such a lunacy (opaque effects) that you end up harming yourself, w/alliances w/future enemies…https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/822438829055496194   Permalink 8:20 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb So IYIs are accusing Trump to be fascist while asserting at the same time that Obama is a better il Duce, better at gathering crowds? Permalink 6:39 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Is this picture real? If so, why the contract with CNN?https://twitter.com/KellerZoe/status/823479934987472896   Permalink 2:46 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot an arbitrage is an arbitrage not a methodology. Violating an arbitrage loses $$. @DGkiranpai Permalink 1:26 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Completed the “How to Predict an Election” thanks to jet lag. For comments. pic.twitter.com/g3TAUYWeEB Permalink 12:59 AM – 23 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2/Pretty much any news operation who performed asychronous comparisons needs to be disqualified as evidence of propaganda Permalink 11:54 PM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Can someone confirm that the pictures of Trump’s and Obama’s inaugurations in comparative panels in MSM were taken at different times? Thx! Permalink 11:43 PM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually ba3den maps to Hebrew/Aramaic Permalink 8:06 AM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today: many Levantine words that don’t map to Aramaic/Hebrew have a Phoenician orgin. Ba3d, Ba3den pic.twitter.com/4adL5aIWF3 Permalink 2:16 AM – 22 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Some people select mystical numbers for good luck. 786 is 4-16 times more likely to be Muslim, pop adjusted. Kapish? @RakeshNarula2 Permalink 5:04 PM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They study economics or psych/social science & end up finding them real because the BS is effortful to learn.https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/822781983621320704   Permalink 4:46 AM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Thing I learned today: In India you can tell someone’s religion at his phone number or car license plate. Muslim: contains 786. Permalink 3:04 AM – 21 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Dictionary of Received Ideas, New Version pic.twitter.com/mheJHAhbO6 Permalink 10:46 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is ironically simple but wrong.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/822590260823687168   Permalink 8:44 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Nobody had “lived under a Trump” 3 h ago outside of his imagination. @CutTheKnotMath @Kasparov63 Permalink 1:12 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I am trying to imagine Fat Tony’s reaction in front of a *vegetarian* burger joint. pic.twitter.com/7AZvTvSlnE Permalink 12:46 PM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb New definition of “left” pic.twitter.com/GPLjyv1OhT Permalink 3:38 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The new Dictionary of Received Ideas pic.twitter.com/oT3E0tSHCd Permalink 3:02 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Where I am discovering is that the *only* thing I have in common with writers is that I write books.https://twitter.com/sonyadc/status/822310433918828544   Permalink 1:57 AM – 20 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Friends needs ome help: what’s the origin of बस (bas = no more) in Hindi? pic.twitter.com/KviEEb7YPA Permalink 11:25 PM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Semitic philology du jour: “ma” used as negation in Hebrew & Akkadian. possible origin “mimma” @lameensouag pic.twitter.com/NKsZpbuCDG Permalink 11:08 PM – 19 Jan 2017

@PenguinIndia The minority rule explained- it’s easier for the majority to adapt to the minorities demands. @nntaleb #PenguinAtJLF pic.twitter.com/XQrmfm2QDd Permalink 1:47 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Where the term “pseudo-left” will be made precise.https://twitter.com/penguinindia/status/822002067631915012   Permalink 12:49 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@PZalloua @nntaleb @Lekapenos @Michael99908062 Split since 10kya based on Y chromosome pic.twitter.com/dUxmYaBS78 Permalink 12:12 AM – 19 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I would check w Pierre Zalloua @PZalloua who found a different genetic imprint for narrow coastal band on Med @Lekapenos @Michael99908062 Permalink 11:45 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My book Skin in the Game, in process (a few chapters) The more I procrastinate, the deeper the book gets!https://medium.com/incerto   Permalink 3:19 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Naive interventionism led to financing terrorists like Binladen, which is as wrong morally as foolish operationally.https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/820779940517969921   Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Male peacock in Jaipur. You don’t win elections by being dull, but by flamboyance & natural signaling. @ZEEJLF pic.twitter.com/kZeACQ5v7u Permalink 3:59 AM – 18 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We will settle on a terminology (whether FatTails incl Heavy Tails or vice versa) @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/Jggq9g3e9g Permalink 7:10 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb To imbeciles who think my Davosphobia comes from “not being invited”:I was invited,once, & I made sure they regretted it. @VeryBritishDude Permalink 7:05 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb When you see “economists say”, read as “those same economists, once again, say” …https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/821274548968550400   Permalink 1:10 AM – 17 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Menu @kringelikrok pic.twitter.com/ARBUdEr2Hj Permalink 12:02 PM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb When people are Lebanese-Armenian they say Lebanese here. When they are Aleppo- Armenian they say Lebanese-Armenian. Permalink 11:56 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Aleppo-Armenian food in Beirut. A long experience since Tigran. pic.twitter.com/I28DvO3TzI Permalink 11:33 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Pple give to charities &feel virtuous by just giving.No #SkinIntheGame IYI workers feel virtuous while misspending Those in need are screwed Permalink 7:25 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@robertwjordway One of the many reasons @nntaleb is my fav. Just moved to DC where few have #SkinInTheGame. Pols should start with #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/7fLGNQ6ElO Permalink 4:57 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Lord Shemesh this morning shining on Mount Lebanon across from writing desk pressuring me to finish #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/wPEVVtLiqs Permalink 12:59 AM – 16 Jan 2017

@nntaleb My ancestors used Greek not Aramaic. That’s the main cultural tension with Maronites and Syriac Orthodox tribes. @herbert_delmont Permalink 10:59 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@GuruAnaerobic The BBC is no longer interested.https://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/820660029913202690   Permalink 10:34 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Paradoxically, the place people travelled safely was on Silk Road thanks to clearing by Genghis et al. See @peterfrankopan @brenwickham Permalink 12:58 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Roman citizenship was before edict of Caracalla~204, limited to former city states. Closed sys @MattheWrite @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb In Ancient Med, bulk of migrations was from 1) slavery, 2) invading armies @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:47 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) Romans had incredibly difficult laws for resident barbarians (nonCitizens) in Empire @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:45 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb This is not, not, not true. It was hard to settle in Athens as a foreigner, except for Sidonians. Metics. @jacoporomei @_md @duarte_vasco Permalink 12:43 PM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No advanced countries are diglossic into a dead language. An Engl/Fr./Sp./It. letter sounds like speech. @alifakharany @thealikhanafer Permalink 11:44 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb .@thealikhanafer Arabs don’t read; those who read are diglossic & don’t do so in Arabic. I sold 100K in Italian! Permalink 11:40 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb People feel that Arabic is an invador’s language. Green-Roman alphabet used for 1000-1200 years before Arabic. #LindyEffect @LaurenceJarvik Permalink 11:04 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb At the first pizza/pasta restaurant in my ancestral village Amioun. Not an Arabic letter on the menu.Extinction of Ar pic.twitter.com/hLIBSJdzUo Permalink 10:41 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I disagree w/”MAY be based on shaky science”. It IS shaky science. Lindy & p-values https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.4c6w8mo54  https://twitter.com/TomChivers/status/820196628594302976   Permalink 9:26 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Ok, he got my weak point.https://twitter.com/strifenjustice/status/820617852738793472   Permalink 5:07 AM – 15 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Fat Tony: “No one ever went bankrupt trading against intellectuals”. Permalink 5:04 AM – 15 Jan 2017

IYI, Minority Rule, Tawk, Lindy Effect, 21, Academia, Dumb Enemies, Salafism | Facebook

[New Version] 9/16/16
The Intellectual Yet Idiot


 It is as irrational to reject all conspiracy theories as it is to accept them. 9/13/16


The classical idea is to build mental capacity, physical strength, and moral fortitude to face the world (Antifragile).

The modern one is to technologically change the world. 9/12/16


https://medium.com/…/where-you-cannot-generalize-from-knowl… 9/11/16
Where You Cannot Generalize from Knowledge of Parts (continuation of the Minority Rule)



There is this formidable scene in the Godfather when the Hollywood executive wakes up with a dead horse in his bed. It was a threat, and not an empty threat.

Threats reveal weakness, except when they are real. The method of conveying real threats was perfected by the sect of the Assassins, an 11th-14th C. sect that specialized in political assassination (they always spared civilians and people who were not directly targeted). Just as with the Godfather scene, legend has it that the head of an army moving against them woke up to find a dagger and a message near his head. It was a “recommendation” to stop the war (he promptly took the advice). They could have killed him, but they were too strong for that and proved it. They supposedly did the same with Saladin, informing him that the cake he was about to eat was poisoned… by them.

The Assassins were often associated with the Templars as they fought frequently on the side of the crusaders –they were part of a branch of Shiite Islam that was violently anti-Sunni.

The method of putting skin-in-the-game in political leaders started with the sicarii who used similar method of targeted assassination by means of a dagger (as opposed to the sword which entails battles).

They were exactly the opposite of Salafi terrorists: as I said, they killed leaders, not civilians, hence unlike wars their methods focusing on precision avoid the civilian “colateral damage”. Comparisons with Jihadis get it backward: they were targeted (Salafis are not discriminating, going after anything that moves, even their own). Much of what we read about the Assassins can be smear by their enemies (including their name linked to Hashish).

And the dagger-near-the-pillow scene is signaling at its best: the most effective way to deal with an enemy is to prove to him that you own him. You are so strong that you keep him alive.



The New York Municipality has been trying for 70 years to change 6th Avenue to “Avenue of the Americas”, unsuccessfully.

Place names are sticky, we should be able to get back 6000 year old languages… from the names. Or the timing of the settlement. I speculate that the placename is likely to correspond to the time of the first settlement and sticks throughout. Cartagena in Spain was a Carthaginian settlement (itself from Kart-7adash). All villages in the Levant bear either ancient Semitic (Canaanite or Aramaic) or Greek names (“Kfar-something”, “Beit-something”). It is when a new settlement is made, such as Laodikeia (during the Seleucids, 3-4th C BC) that a new name appears, or when one part near a small town is rebuilt as a government center such as Caesarea. When the Romans give a placename, it is usually a corruption of the originial: Berytus to Beirut (small well in Canaanite), Apamea from 7ama (though it is not in the same location), etc.

Now let us speculate. Knossos, the Minoan center, maps most certainly to to a Semitic root (meaning gathering, like Knesseth, Knisse, etc.), so I conjecture whether Linear B=>Canaanite or reverse.

I also speculate that there is a deep connection of pre-Canaanite for my ancestral village Amioun: 3am Yawan “the Ionian people’s settlement” in Canaanite (we have same genes and genetic diseases as Cretans).

And Marseilles, in France, while its inhabitants claim a Phocaean origin (Greeks of Asia Minor), makes me suspect a Phoenician connection, since “Marsa” means port in Canaanite and a nearby hilltop village is called Ramatuelle, from “Ramat El”, Hill of God, which is certainly Phoenician placename.


The more you use a metric (“metrify”), the more you will compare yourself to others.

The more you compare yourself to others, whether favorably or unfavorably, the worse off you will be.

(This continues the odometer story). 9/4/16


Someone I know refrained from riding his bicycle because the odometer was broken. He felt that his cycling didn’t count towards his “goal”.

This is what happens with systems that becomes “modernized”. 9/2/16


By the Lindy Effect, you should know 20 times more about history of the past 2000 years than that of the past 100 years.

In fact, not only most people know more about the past 100 years, but they knew even more about the past 100 days.

Further, history is not geopolitics (who met whom) or wars, but an understanding of what people used, ate, produced, thought, and argued about. 9/1/16

Found the picture of my 21y old self that I mentioned in the commencement address. 8/28/16



Academia is (nearly) zero-sum: every position, honor, promotion, rank, and reward is taken from someone else.

Business on the other hand creates business.

That’s the only career advice I feel compelled to give. 8/28/16


 Anger is privilege for the strong, duty for the righteous, and self-harm for the weak. 8/23/16


I speculate that the constant internecine and tribal fights in the absence of external dangers made armies stronger. Which is perhaps why the Greek city states were able to fend off the Persian attacks, but Egypt, with its central order, fell apart when Western Asians came down to invade.

This applies to all scales: Sicilians, Maronites, Cretans, and Corsican families, with their culture of vendetta, fight one another when they run out of enemies. 8/19/16


Dumb enemies are a problem as they can be very hard to predict. 8/19/16


Those who say “I feel sorry for you” mean “I feel envy”. Those who really feel sorry for you don’t say anything. 8/17/16


Refine your mind, keep avoiding BS vendors, journos, & statistical noise to the point when logical flaws and nonsense sound like a jarring notes to a musical ear in a middle of a concert. 8/16/16


The more ritualistic your business life is, the more likely you are to go out of business. Many people just go to the office to go to the office, partake of the rituals of the office, get coffee from the coffee machine, then return home. Some, in order to fill the alloted time, partake of something very structured commonly called a meeting.

So, if you are self employed, the discipline is to be in your office if and only if you have something very, very specific to do. If you are employed, the same works indirectly: the more ritualistic your function, the more probable is your eventual redundancy.

There is another dimension: noise. The shorter the time-scale of information, the more noise you will be getting in the office (or online), relative to the signal. Reducing the physical presence is protective in that sense. 5/15/16


The Most Intolerant Wins 8/14/16

[Trying a new venue to post chapters. ]


In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters 8/13/16



There used to be a distinction between an athlete representing virtus (human-ness*) and ἀρετή (the quality of being what you are made to be) on one hand, and, on the other the circus acrobat selling uniqueness and deformity. Mediterranean ideals, as opposed to the Egypto-Babylonian ones, were about scale and balance: even the Gods were brought down to human scale. (Yet homines sumus, non dei: we are men, not gods)

Today’s Olympics, by dint of specialization and overoptimization, thanks to the media and the huge financing involved, have transformed the athlete into a circus acrobat, a mutant selling deformities.

Let me insist: anything overoptimized, or even barely optimized, is no longer human.

Hominem te esse memento!

* manliness in PC terms.


I never imagined that, in 2016, people selfdefined on the “left” would be in favor of repression, censorship, cronyism, Monsantoism, lobbies, elitism, military interventionsim, and … Salafism ! 8/11/16


That Thing We Call Religion [SKIN IN THE GAME] 8/5/16

The problem of the verbalistic (and the journalistic) is expressed in an aphorism earlier in the Incerto: mathematicians think in (well precisely defined and mapped) objects, philosophers in concepts, jurists in constructs, logicians in operators (…), and idiots in words. We saw that risk and tail risk are mathematically separate objects, conflated by the IYI (intellectual yet idiot) crowd. Two people can be using the same word, meaning different things, yet continue the conversation, which is fine for coffee, but not when making decisions, particularly policy decisions affecting others. But it is easy to trip them, as Socrates did, simply by asking them what they mean by what they said –hence philosophy was born as rigor in discourse and disentanglement of mixed up notions, in precise opposition to the sophist’s promotion of rhetoric. But, since Socrates we have had a long tradition of mathematical science and contract law driven by precision in mapping terms. But we also have had many pronouncements by idiots using labels.

People rarely mean the same thing when they say “religion”, nor do they realize that they don’t mean the same thing. For early Jews and Muslims, religion was law. Din means law in Hebrew and religion in Arabic. For early Jews, religion was also tribal; for early Muslims, it was universal. For the Romans, religion was social events, rituals, and festivals –the word religio was opposition to superstitio, and while present in the Roman zeitgeist had no equivalent concept in the Greek-Byzantine East . Law was procedurally and mechanically its own thing, and early Christianity, thanks to Saint Augustine, stayed relatively away from the law, and, later, remembering its foundations, had an uneasy relation with it. The difference is marked in that Christian Aramaic uses a different word: din for religion and nomous (from the Greek) for law. Jesus, with his imperative “give to Caesar what belongs to Caesar”, separated the holy and the profane: Christianity was for another domain, “the kingdom to come”, only merged with this one in the eschaton. Neither Islam nor Judaism have a marked separation between holy and profane. And of course Christianity moved away from the solely-spiritual domain to embrace the ceremonial and ritualistic, integrating much of the pagan rites of the Levant and Asia Minor.

For Jews today, religion became ethnocultural, without the law –and for many, a nation. Same for Syriacs, Chaldeans, Armenians, Copts, and Maronites. For Orthodox and Catholic Christians religion is aesthetics, pomp and rituals. For Protestants, religion is belief with no aesthetics, pomp or law. Further East, for Buddhists, Shintoists and Hindus, religion is practical and spiritual philosophy, with a code of ethics (and for some, cosmogony). So when Hindu talk about the Hindu “religion” they don’t mean the same thing to a Pakistani as it would to a Hindu, and certainly something different for a Persian.

When the nation-state idea came about, things got more, much more complicated. When an Arab now says “Jew” he largely means something about a creed; to Arabs, a converted Jew is no longer a Jew. But for a Jew, a Jew is someone whose mother is a Jew. But it somewhat merged into nation-state and now means a nation.

In Serbia-Croatia and Lebanon, religion means something at times of peace, and something quite different at times of war.

When someone discusses the “Christian minority” in the Levant, it doesn’t mean (as Arabs tend to think) promoting a Christian theocracy (full theocracies were very few in Christian history, just Byzantium and a short attempt by Calvin). He just means “secular” or wants a marked separation of church and state. Same for the gnostics (Druids, Druze, Mandeans, Alawis).

The problem with the European Union is that the naive IYI bureaucrats (these idiots who can’t find a coconut on Coconut island) are fooled by the label. They treat Salafism as just a religion –with its houses of “worship”—when in fact it is just an intolerant political system, which promotes (or allows) violence and refuses the institutions of the West –those that allow them to operate. As we saw with the minority rule, the intolerant will run over the tolerant; cancer requires being stopped before it becomes metastatic.

We will see in the next chapter that “belief” can be epistemic, or simply procedural (pisteic) –leading to confusions about what sort of beliefs, are religious beliefs and which ones are not, disentangled through signaling. For, on top of the “religion” problem, there is a problem with belief. Some beliefs are largely decorative , some are functional (they help in survival); others are literal. And to revert to our metastatic Salafi problem: when one of these fundamentalists talks to a Christian, he is convinced that the Christian is literal, while the Christian is convinced that the Salafi has the same oft-metaphorical concepts to be taken seriously but not literally –and, often, not very seriously. Religions, such as Christianity, Judaism, and, to some extent Shiite Islam, evolved (or let their members evolve in developing a sophisticated society) precisely by moving away from the literal –in addition to the functional aspect of the metaphorical, the literal doesn’t leave any room for adaptation .

PS We classicists can invoke Graeco-Roman ethics, that is, virtue ethics, and claim wisdom of the ancestors, or distillation of 3000 years of Mediterranean wisdom and benefit from the Lindy effect. The Salafis are trying the same thing (Salafi means ancestral) –and failing to do anything … actually going backward as we keep advancing. Why? Because Graeco-Roman ethics was never literal, but about principles