Tag Archives: Kashoggi

LOCALISM, Identity Politics, Banksy, Kashoggi, Berlin, Crying In Public, Boulder, Reputation, Popper, Minority Rule, Kasparov, Pinker, Ketogenesis | Twitter


@highnoontide This perfectly explains why @nntaleb once suggested Nobel Prize in Economics be banned. https://twitter.com/j_lovering/status/1049283173866192896   Permalink 9:33 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ethical Inquiries and Discussions pic.twitter.com/dC4Fscoiuv Permalink 8:36 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@spyrosmakrid 2/ People who consumed a diet high in meat and dairy had a 22% decreased risk of heart attack and a 25% decreased risk of early death (28 Aug. 18) https://www.escardio.org/The-ESC/Press-Office/Press-releases/Components-of-heart-healthy-diet-may-differ-from-what-was-previously-thought   #Forecasting #Diet ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/UaahWBBj0i”>  pic.twitter.com/UaahWBBj0i Permalink 6:11 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic All this misses the point about SCALE, a la @nntaleb – “LOCALISM: At Fed level, libertarian; state, Republican; local, Democrat; family/friends, socialist”. https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1048946544551100416   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Oct 2018

@nntaleb If you want someone to read ALL your tweets, block him or her. Permalink 2:12 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Deleted tweets are more informational than regular ones. https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1049039025821155328   Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Just lecktured the Hackers Congress (Prague) via Skype that distorts my face. https://twitter.com/austinmcraig/status/1048981750045528064   Permalink 1:57 PM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Banksy provides a perfect illustration of the potency of *via negativa*. #Antifragile https://twitter.com/alxpr1c3/status/1048635864585310208   Permalink 8:44 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb So it is easy to eliminate Kashoggi because he has no tribal links, people who would seek revenge. https://twitter.com/ZJoureir/status/1048934611299045376   Permalink 7:31 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb ABSTRACT UNIVERSALISMS AND PSEUDOIDENTITIES 1) People conflate differences between groups and difference between individuals. 2) Identity politics leads to stereotyping, no different from racial profiling. pic.twitter.com/CbUVmCrZbn Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb In Turkish, Kaşıkçı means spoon maker. Permalink 6:53 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb An uninteresting twist to the Khashoggi story is that Khashoggi is not a Saudi Arab, but a Turkish-Syrian name. Permalink 6:39 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @elonmusk #antifragile #tesla #blackswanmobile pic.twitter.com/VOAcJ6Q5xf Permalink 6:31 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ethics pic.twitter.com/vkSUEHZv7H Permalink 4:11 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The problem is that people engage shills thinking their arguments will change their minds. You see it with Monsanto shills, with agents of Saudi Barbaria, etc. Permalink 3:57 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@acommonlawyer I’m with @nntaleb on this: income post-public office should not exceed that available in public office. Otherwise, post-office income for previous incumbents ≈ implicit bribe for current incumbent; “stay on our good side and we’ll make you rich when you’re done being president”. https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1048874388874022912   Permalink 3:01 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@HsenAndil I started recently translating Le Petit Prince into Lebanese. This is still a first draft, in terms of the script/orthography, and the translation itself (wording). Feedback from natives would be highly appreciated. Here’s a link to the first chapter: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erV9jAtNdys82F2hy1LAB43BmSW-DK6x/view?usp=sharing   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/T4rwjDfWwy”>  pic.twitter.com/T4rwjDfWwy Permalink 1:46 AM – 7 Oct 2018

@nntaleb How you can tell a Saudi government shill, even without tracking his funding. Some idiots engage him. https://twitter.com/aliShihabi/status/1048684171072327681   Permalink 4:55 PM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Solution with probabilistic approach pic.twitter.com/hKDYjfc5Xc Permalink 6:07 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Note that there is no such thing as a “thinker” who is not a FREE (that is independent) thinker. Gabish? https://twitter.com/sirchappyquiddi/status/1048532476157677568   Permalink 4:22 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A partisan’s (or an ideologue’s) assessment of a situation doesn’t depend on the situation. Permalink 4:01 AM – 6 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Note: I systematically block people with cute remarks on math problems. Permalink 4:34 PM – 5 Oct 2018

@nntaleb A math problem a la @CutTheKnotMath for the weekend. Courtesy Dan Sitaru, the Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/F6HdFanbgM Permalink 3:39 PM – 5 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @Mises #humanaction #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/gx0bCzIGF8 Permalink 7:43 AM – 5 Oct 2018

@marciadabliu “Specifically, Brazil and Argentina often use more than 4.5 kilograms of glyphosate per hectare – three times as much as when GM soya was introduced some 20 years ago.” https://twitter.com/testbiotech/status/1047904942097412097   Permalink 2:16 AM – 5 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, and idiots in labels. Permalink 9:48 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Mathematicians think in proofs, lawyers in constructs, logicians in operators, dancers in movement, artists in impressions, and idiots in labels. Permalink 9:48 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Too many people think in labels. Permalink 12:50 PM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb This is a prime example the genetic fallacy. The internet was founded as a military application. Please avoid sloppy thinking. https://twitter.com/Yehesz/status/1047808343530565634   Permalink 4:25 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The value of a degree is in its RELIABILITY: when ill in a foreign country you can bet the MD has minimal competence. Like a driver’s license. HUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE degrees offer no reliability. If you don’t know what you get, degrees are worthless. The market punishes BS Permalink 12:29 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb The value of a degree is in its RELIABILITY: when ill in a foreign country you can bet the MD has minimal competence. Like a driver’s license. HUMANITIES/SOCIAL SCIENCE degrees offer no reliability. If you don’t know what you get, degrees are worthless. The market punishes BS Permalink 12:29 AM – 4 Oct 2018

@nntaleb (Madrid) Permalink 1:50 PM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Madeid (a brief stop) pic.twitter.com/DxGqa8n3gk Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Please note that I only do book lecktchurs when the book is out in the language, even then. I don’t do book lecktchurs for a living. I prefer technical lectchurs on probability. Permalink 10:13 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Nietzsche #antifragile pic.twitter.com/4ShhS0mDAQ Permalink 9:27 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@asymmetricinfo 1) Almost everyone seems to be missing that this was tax arbitrage, not tax evasion. He was converting estate taxed money into income-taxed income. The size of the net benefit is somewhat uncertain because the conversion lost the benefits of tax deferral until death. Permalink 8:06 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb To understand decentralization/localism. + DC : much higher real estate/hotels prices than most large cities in the US. + Berlin: much cheaper real estate/hotels prices than most large cities in Germany. https://twitter.com/Evansrahal/status/1047476596112801792   Permalink 6:40 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Optimisation -> Fragility ‘I won Olympic Gold but can’t climb stairs’ – Amy Williams, 36 https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/winter-sports/45714174   Permalink 2:11 AM – 3 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Ich bin ein Berliner. https://twitter.com/kungler/status/1047162090815991813   Permalink 9:23 PM – 2 Oct 2018

@kungler Los geht’s mit @nntaleb #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/vauhTwYwIU Permalink 9:31 AM – 2 Oct 2018

@nntaleb No human is more Mediterranean in demeanor, temperament & appearance than Irene Pappas. https://twitter.com/pascal_dorian/status/1044177867784032256   Permalink 5:00 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Page 17 (2 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #gfc #cbot #popper #mises #nietzsche #gnomesofzurich #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/LQ1HJyaDSL Permalink 1:16 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@black_swan_man Page 16 (1 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #gfc #cbot #popper #mises #nietzsche #gnomesofzurich #antifragile #daoofcapital pic.twitter.com/HsKuETuCX9 Permalink 1:15 PM – 1 Oct 2018

@dannyhakim Prominent academic journal issues correction conceding that that “Monsanto Co. didn’t fully disclose its involvement” in articles declaring glyphosate safe. Raises latest questions of transparency in pesticide research. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/monsanto-s-role-in-roundup-safety-study-is-corrected-by-journal   Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Presented the new book to charlatans. The reaction (yellow) https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Vq72bUo9JT”>  pic.twitter.com/Vq72bUo9JT Permalink 3:41 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb After the Macbook MacOS patch, even slower. @WolframResearch pic.twitter.com/hd1Ekt3h23 Permalink 2:54 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@nntaleb Last night I dreamed that I was given The job at the Federal Reserve. I walked in and announced that 1) every economist with an academic origin would be laid off, 2) every statistician who used “variance” in a research paper would be immediately terminated. Permalink 2:25 AM – 1 Oct 2018

@ggreenwald I always genuinely wonder: are DC foreign policy elites like @SamanthaJPower so inebriated with American Exceptionalism that they really believe it’s different when they do it, or do they know it’s the same but cynically view everyone as dupes? Probably differs for each offender. Permalink 11:39 AM – 30 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Duesseldorf The German Publisher put me in a hotel with a fully functional bathtub on the balcony. If these things don’t make you a traditionalist, I don’t know what will. pic.twitter.com/MuvfG17jRy Permalink 6:49 AM – 30 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://mobile.twitter.com/robkopacz/status/1046133861225246721   Permalink 1:49 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The only person who showed spine inthe episode was Lindsey Graham. I hate him. He is a neocon. He is an interventionist. But he showed spine. Permalink 12:44 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb This is not a job interview for auditor in chief at the local utility company. This is a lifetime apptmnt as a justice in the Supreme Court. It entails tough decisions. Very tough decisions. Gabish? Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1046106181683556354   Permalink 11:45 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. https://twitter.com/ryanpflynn/status/1046106181683556354   Permalink 11:45 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-syria/syria-foreign-minister-tells-u-n-country-is-ready-for-refugee-return-idUSKCN1M90IA   Permalink 11:09 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The point is that it is not a good idea for a journalist to abet fraudulent information, particularly that I an vindictive enouth to make their lives miserable for decades. Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Answer: A 4 leg version of Jensen’s inequality. pic.twitter.com/DonVIDZtMB Permalink 5:15 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Joe Wiesenthal, @TheStalwart why are you spreading fake student evaluations by the anonymous @quantian1? Unethical. Permalink 4:04 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Lshghl bekassel l kifr. In praise of idleness. https://twitter.com/blebnene/status/1045947259937050625   Permalink 2:40 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1045927760277966848   Permalink 12:58 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Some Saturday morning Math in the style of @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/nrf10gZST3 Permalink 12:02 AM – 29 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) Not to mention that the employer of @rmslim is the @Middleeastinst paid by Persian Gulf states to promote Salafism & help destroy minorities & localists in Syria. In other words @rmslim is a PAID propagandist for evil Salafi states and some idiots unknowlingly engage her. Permalink 11:46 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The problem of Near East conflicts is that those with skin in the game have been sacrified for the sake of the principles of those with no skin in the game. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 11:40 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) Someone sitting in the comfort of a think tank office (with a fridge full of yoghurt drinks) dictating what aid people on the ground in Syria should receive in order to satisfy her grand principles. #SkinintheGame. https://twitter.com/rmslim/status/1045922250015330304   Permalink 11:39 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@rorysutherland From @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/CpJ1T0nUqF Permalink 1:36 PM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Some of the commentators (#idiots) here don’t get that the two statements: 1) believing that K is a victim and 2) believing that K is weaker than expected are compatible. Gabish? Permalink 10:06 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) I had to coin a word for someone flowing moral values backward in time, 25 centuries: RETROACTIVE BIGOTEERING. https://twitter.com/ProfSimonton/status/1045505514988138496   Permalink 9:34 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The only thing a college teacher of classics can reliably teach you is to become a college teacher of classics. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/923848138493956096   Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) One thing we know: Professors of Spartan history (like this bloke) are no Spartans. The heroes of history were not virtue-signaling library rats. The last person to learn classical values from is career “classicists”. You learn about doers from doers. https://twitter.com/ProfSimonton/status/1045504047879356417   Permalink 8:52 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/773574603205730305   Permalink 8:02 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Crying in public because you saw atrocities and feel sorry for someone else is fine; crying in public because you feel sorry for yourself (& implore others to feel sorry for you) is the greatest marker of weakeness. Permalink 7:18 AM – 28 Sep 2018

@nntaleb SYMMETRY A soldier was accused of stealing someone’s food and eating it. The commander offered the following Solomonic deal. They kill the soldier and look into his stomach. If there is no food as described by the accuser, the accuser is put to death. Permalink 3:22 PM – 27 Sep 2018

@The_Cyrenian Every major UK newspaper also had “irrefutable evidence” that Iraq had “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, too. A million people died because of that lie. The propaganda, bloodlust and war-mongering of you and your Atlantic Council masters never ends, it seems. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1045189449770881024   Permalink 11:05 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Does anyone have an idea of government funding for economic “research”? Grants to universities, etc. Permalink 7:57 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nicolas_sommet The Spirit Level has been cited ≈10K times (≈700 times in 2018). The book is straightforward: It uses cross-sectional data to show negative effects of #IncomeInequality on health. The problem: It does NOT hold up to scrutiny. Thread pic.twitter.com/WWueTIeQN7 Permalink 7:12 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Can someone explain to this moron that 1) progress = substituting what works RELIABLY better to what doesn’t work as well, 2) too fast a rate of evolution cancels out past gains. https://twitter.com/BorisMozer/status/1045307515452477440   Permalink 6:59 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@ggreenwald Left unaddressed in this deeply moving tweet: why didn’t Obama admin “cut off aid” to the Saudis as it destroyed Yemen? More to the point, why did you feed Saudis with arms & intel to help them do it? Perhaps because you have “no concern for loss of life”? https://twitter.com/SamanthaJPower/status/1045077050409848832   Permalink 4:20 AM – 27 Sep 2018

@nntaleb OK, many roads… pic.twitter.com/RruU6HwY0j Permalink 7:33 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb MATH DU JOUR For those who survived the morning riddle, a yuugely interesting one. [Please avoid cute nonmath remarks: someone blocks all authors of polluting remarks on my MathTwitter feed and I cannot do anything about it]. pic.twitter.com/JmOJu74Y1c Permalink 6:57 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If Klueless Massimo @mpigliucci produces BS about anything in sight, can he know anything about operational stoicism? https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 2:18 PM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Note: ALL authors of snide remarks on MathTwitter get automatically blocked. I can’t unblock and can’t stop it. Sorry for the inconvenience. Permalink 10:44 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My approach pic.twitter.com/I0DMdhJWgl Permalink 10:38 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The IYI class & the conviction by these sub-idiots that they are unconditionally smarter than practitioners. Why Stiglitz still unaware he helped wreck FNMAe and Venezuela. “He [Volker] is the best central banker ever…” “Is he smart like us?”, Stiglitz asked Rogoff. pic.twitter.com/UhbGJ98CQI Permalink 10:20 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb @Jonassibony can help with the Semitic root of 3ta pic.twitter.com/WzFrLO7t7D Permalink 9:17 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Someone arabized Michael Atiyah’s father’s name from Atiyyé in Lebanese to the Arabic Atiyah, when he converted from Greek Orthodox to to Protestant. The idea of Arabism is to kill localism in all its forms. https://twitter.com/EricJagr68/status/1044951476584501248   Permalink 7:12 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The reason we don’t use chalk was initially linked to the asbestos problem. Bring back the chalkboard. You can also use the chalk when deadlifting. https://twitter.com/SimonDeDeo/status/1044950108129947648   Permalink 7:06 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@nntaleb A math morning riddle to distract ourselves from Atiyah’s proof. Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/3NOgE1RBTJ Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Sep 2018

@naval Talking live with @nntaleb at @goBLOCKCON on Oct 11. We’ll cover my favorite book of 2018, Skin in the Game, and weave in some crypto. https://www.goblockcon.com/   Permalink 1:53 PM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Institutions don’t like scandals. They are weak. It suffices to have someone STUBBORN like me keep pounding them to fire someone. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/972152554556657664   Permalink 11:17 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Excellent News! Henry I. Miller is no longer at the Hoover Institution. Permalink 11:08 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Kevin Folta (of the Monsanto connection) partook of the smear campaign against anti-Monsanto activist @RachelsNews when she was 15. Let us all applaud Rachel’s courage (she is now 18). https://globalnews.ca/news/2414720/documents-reveal-canadian-teenager-the-target-of-gmo-lobby/   https://twitter.com/RachelsNews/status/1044639812844539904   Permalink 10:36 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I do not give up. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/960317570300735488   Permalink 8:52 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The best test to figure out if people s.a. Mark Lynas or Tamar Haspel are shills: they support BOTH GMOs and Glyphosate –both of which benefit Monsanto. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1044560980758462465   Permalink 7:28 AM – 25 Sep 2018

@_erratica There are designations, like “economist”, “prostitute”, or “consultant”, for which additional characterization doesn’t add information. N N Taleb @nntaleb The Bed of Procrustes. ~ Permalink 10:14 PM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 4) “My understanding is: the LEFT stands against exploitation & coersion of the weak. The chief exploitation of the public isn’t corporations that go bust; it’s the permanence of rent-seeking fake experts such as Krugman, Bernanke & the neocons who inflict risks on others.” Permalink 3:16 PM – 24 Sep 2018

@ektrit Talebism @nntaleb https://twitter.com/Edourdoo/status/1044272191863427072   Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I found “chantage moral” in French which works in some contexts. Permalink 10:12 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR How do you translate ”Bi rabbe7 jmilé” from Leb? Genuinely failed. Permalink 9:58 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@garyruskin When companies bury evidence of harm and pollute the scientific literature with ghostwriting, as the Monsanto Papers show, why should consumers trust them? https://trib.in/2xzELgf   @GregTrotterTrib Background on the #MonsantoPapers: http://bit.ly/2mJSyvq   Permalink 9:50 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@jessefelder In 2006, Nobel Prize–winning economist Joseph Stiglitz praised the economic policies of Hugo Chávez. The Venezuelan president ran one of the “leftist governments” in Latin America that were unfairly “castigated for being populist.” https://www.city-journal.org/joseph-stiglitz-venezuela-16181.html   ht @DiMartinoBooth Permalink 9:32 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb What do we know about David Rothschild @DavMicRot ? He is incompetent in his own subject matter, statistics and pol forecasting. https://twitter.com/davmicrot/status/1043971493334536192   Permalink 9:19 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3) Many are actually IN FAVOR of having “pundits” inflict risks on others with impunity”: those are members of the bureaucratic state. Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of “risk analysis” (debate in Las Vegas). https://twitter.com/fullnelson69/status/1044214702505697284   Permalink 6:31 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) These “leftists” even agreed that”: The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators) Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries Permalink 6:15 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message: + Localism, bottom-up + Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies + No enterprise without #Skininthegame + No abstract scale-free universalism A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist “left” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1043980243843743744   Permalink 5:41 AM – 24 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Localism and Skin in the Game. Boulder pic.twitter.com/9lFtLw28vE Permalink 2:47 PM – 23 Sep 2018

@VergilDen 18 yrs of winnings wipped out in one day. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1043888981354647553   Permalink 8:58 AM – 23 Sep 2018

@nntaleb People don’t learn. Skin in the game has the attribute of removing bad drivers from the system. Systems learn by removing. https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1043814843814490113   Permalink 4:19 AM – 23 Sep 2018

@nntaleb So it looks concave (over the long run) 5 reps outperforms the combinations… Permalink 3:50 PM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The problem with performance metrics. #skininthegame https://twitter.com/mehdi_ir_dc/status/1043518161826525184   Permalink 8:17 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The idea is to see on which side of Jensen’s inequality: (locally) convex or concave? pic.twitter.com/XkX0qLQIcl Permalink 7:00 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Nothing more exhilarating than the press! Just the mental energy required to push the metal over your head. Now let f(.) be the benefit & x the # of reps; ignoring injury risks: f(1)+f(9) > (<) 2 f(5) ? i.e., 2 sets of 5 better or worse than 1 RM + 9 RM? Explain pic.twitter.com/Qi5exdub2e Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb This was written 21 years ago: “professionals” mistaking probability for expectation. From Fooled by Randomness pic.twitter.com/kwzbT2KWLF Permalink 5:49 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: Where the 3-4 Population Tests (left) are the analog to what we know in econometrics as GRANGER CAUSALITY (right) [ignore wikipedia, see scholarpedia below] http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Granger_causality   Meaning we can use cross-entropy metrics! cc: @iosif_lazaridis @PZalloua ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cuDcw7kl96″>  pic.twitter.com/cuDcw7kl96 Permalink 4:36 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Which explains why nobody interested in finance should ever follow twitter finance. https://twitter.com/StockCats/status/1043122635926896645   Permalink 4:18 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@wrathofgnon A perfectly medieval aphorism from @nntaleb. One of my favorites. From the book The Bed Of Procrustes. pic.twitter.com/KNlIWZq6BX Permalink 12:21 AM – 22 Sep 2018

@nntaleb For the hot hand trust the experienced or the real mathematical probabilist. Not the semi-knowlegeable psycholophaster. Half scientists a la @r_thaler are b***tters. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/964657750881046528?s=21   Permalink 4:17 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Unapologetic style… https://twitter.com/BiankaB12/status/1043216606594326529   Permalink 1:03 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Refusing the filter of “experience” is negating evolution. We didn’t make it through zillion of years without helpful statistical intuitions. Permalink 12:18 PM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb It turned out that the “evidence” showing no hot hand in sports is a fiction. Experience trumps pseudostatistics used by social scientists. https://twitter.com/chrisjkuntz/status/1043200573783396352   Permalink 11:13 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@black_swan_man Page 15 (2 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #HumanAction @Mises #nudge #Keynesian #IYIs @R_Thaler @paulkrugman pic.twitter.com/1i4AFYBcFT Permalink 6:05 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@black_swan_man Page 14 (1 of 2)… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #HumanAction @Mises #nudge #Keynesian #IYIs @R_Thaler @paulkrugman pic.twitter.com/wRNB6vCWvY Permalink 6:03 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb New Title, book almost done. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/THE_STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sSCAxhGDNS”>  pic.twitter.com/sSCAxhGDNS Permalink 2:13 AM – 21 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Market Is “Sandbagging Us” – Mark Spitznagel Sees “Deeper & Deeper” Crashes Ahead | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-18/market-sandbagging-us-mark-spitznagel-sees-deeper-deeper-crashes-ahead   Permalink 10:44 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If you need your reputation more than I need mine, I own you. Otherwise you own me. Permalink 10:02 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb In BS vending by tagging some pseudoscientific psychological explanation to a wrong empirical fact, nobody beats Pinker. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1042784921398456320   Permalink 9:42 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Comparing the old Macbook pro (left) to the new one (right) using @WolframResearch’s Mathematica. Looks like the new one is SLOWER for Monte Carlo simulations. pic.twitter.com/cn3i22NXQi Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb How evil firms use mobs https://www.globalresearch.ca/monsanto-accused-of-hiring-army-of-trolls-to-silence-online-dissent-court-papers/5588396   Permalink 6:40 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) Note that evil corporations use social media to bully critics. Monsanto’s smear campaign against scientists is based on internet mobs organized by @KetchumPR. Permalink 6:12 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb If social media scares you, change profession. Now. You can no longer be a scholar or scientist if you don’t have f*** you money or f*** you attitude. Otherwise you’re at the mercy of mob lynching. Ian Buruma abt pple “not convicted by the judiciary but by social media”: pic.twitter.com/sfl7QOb0K9 Permalink 5:57 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Three slides that summarize the problems with risk. https://twitter.com/mZargham/status/1022110281001050112   Permalink 3:16 AM – 20 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My greatest fear is to have someone who just as Soros who got Popper’s Open Society exactly backwards & funded an “Open Society Inst.” for a Platonic bureaucrat-led #skininthegame-free monoculture, starts an *Incerto Institute* promoting Kantian scale-free Universalism. Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Which is the reason I hate interviews; they try to force you to reduce a book to a fortune cookie-compatible expression. https://twitter.com/daviduvaydov/status/1042463961826947075   Permalink 1:47 PM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Minority rule https://twitter.com/justinraimondo/status/1042427028094382080   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Minority rule https://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/1042427028094382080   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid The major finding of the paper The forecasting accuracy of the best ML method was lower than the worst of Stat ones while half the ML methods were less accurate than a random walk was contrary to the beliefs of the Neural Networks journal that rejected it using a false reason pic.twitter.com/hpItW4OaKL Permalink 5:25 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The reason you can’t trust the press is PRECISELY because they give you the illusion of truth by getting the facts right. https://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 4:48 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb People in Lebanon used to rely on timber for heating/cooking (& tax payment to the Ottomans). Fossil fuel allowed the greening across places. It is bad (side effects), but one should NEVER represent a partial picture like this shoddy sensationalist @FranckGenauseau Permalink 4:43 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1) Cedar story is missing the success of new growth across the mountain. 2) @FranckGenauze has never heard of cherry picking/sensationalism/sucker alarmism. pic.twitter.com/iL1mnw7Y0i Permalink 4:37 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Pictures of Leb in 1900 vs today. Clear reforestation. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1028613123157237760   Permalink 4:09 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@nntaleb MISREPRESENTATION of STATISTICAL PICTURE Journos @FranckGenauzeauare clueless & cherrypicking. Lebanon is currently greening, >150,000 additional Cedar trees at higher level plus rising treeline. The planet is undergoing yuuge reforestation. This demoralizes environmentalists https://twitter.com/FranckGenauzeau/status/1042357182023520256   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@ilSaggiatoreEd Le letture del Ministro #Tria? ‘Skin in the game’ di @nntaleb, dall’undici ottobre in libreria grazie al vostro editore preferito. pic.twitter.com/4saQ9lUBTd Permalink 2:09 AM – 19 Sep 2018

@alexisevdox Great Psychology Today article on #AI and #MachineLearning. If it improves as a result of being faced with and solving problems, it’s #antifragile. Love how @nntaleb’s brilliant concept has invaded the lexicon. https://pos.li/2aferk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1QzirulIgq”>  pic.twitter.com/1QzirulIgq Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Math Problem du Jour. Courtesy: Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/iiKnwv0sxc Permalink 2:55 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I meant these principles https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1038934453974790144   Permalink 2:25 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb PS I am not a libertarian but a localist, i.e. libertarian for higher levels of central government. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1042047309478014976   Permalink 2:22 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 1rst stage when I read Hayek. 2nd stage when I read “Nudge” by @CassSunstein & @R_thaler & saw it was pseudoscience in industrial scale & something had to be done about the class of people I later coined “IYIS” (Intellectuals Yet Idiots). 3rd stage w/the Syrian war https://twitter.com/LPNational/status/1042145030406844416   Permalink 2:03 PM – 18 Sep 2018

@mistermircea Actually @nntaleb spells it out in Ch. 17 of Antifragile “The minute I was bored with a book or subject I moved to another one […] The trick is to be bored with a specific book, rather than the act of reading. Avoidance of boredom is the only worthy mode of action.” Permalink 11:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/ClYmMzeuX7 Permalink 7:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The division in politics can be summarized as between + Embedded, complexity-minded, multiscale/fractal localists (politics as an ecology/complex adaptive system) + Abstract one-dimensional universalists & monoculturalists (politics as a top-down engineering project) Permalink 6:46 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Note: When Arabo-Sunni-Islamists want to smear the LOCALISTS & minorities who want bottom-up self-determination, s.a. Christians, Shiites & oth minorities they use tags such as “right wing”, “sectarian”, “fascist”, etc. (Look at behavior of low-IQ fraud-propagandist @shadihamid) Permalink 6:20 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Friends, here is a program for denesting radicals using @WolframResearch’s Mathematica. It doesn’t work here but should in simpler cases. http://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/980264   Permalink 5:23 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The first vol of the INCERTO, Fooled by Randomness, was written ~20 years ago. https://twitter.com/aleksndr_a/status/1041960260846665728   Permalink 3:54 AM – 18 Sep 2018

@ejames_c Hilarious and good: the scent of bad psychology. https://putanumonit.com/2018/09/07/the-scent-of-bad-psychology/   (My favourite bit is probably the one with Nicholas Nassem Taleb’s Grandma). Permalink 7:12 PM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Again, I have NOTHING against chess players. Some have done great things (Nick Patterson, cc: @iosif_lazaridis), many traders, etc. But I have pbm allowing someone who is JUST a chess player to both fail elementary reasoning & use chess for credibility. https://twitter.com/BurntOutCase/status/1041693505326866433   Permalink 7:31 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr @Kasparov63 fails logical thinking/meta at many levels. He derives his “expertise” & fame not from intellectual contribution or risk wizardry, but from moving w/ B&W pieces. So we are entitled to wonder abt transferability of such knowledge to risk. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041528325037064192   Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@normonics If we abolish the electoral college We should also abolish the union 50 free states to manage their own business I say keep the electoral college, a beautiful piece of complex systems engineering enabling multiscale federalism Permalink 5:29 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Nicky the robot from Nicosia. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1041657820523978753   Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Lunch in Northern Phoenicia pic.twitter.com/dqiExl3rpD Permalink 4:11 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 @nntaleb Mr. Kasparov, unlike you Dr. Taleb is a man of integrity. Assad’s father actually blew up his home in one war years ago. But Taleb has principles and knows that these jihadist mercenaries from all over are ruining the area. Permalink 3:02 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr Gary Kasparov, @Kasparov63, I am currently in North Lebanon as I am writing these lines. Would you agree to come LIVE here if Assad is removed? Yes/No please. I am really fed up with bullshitters who don’t pay a price to the consequences of their actions. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041533709369991168   Permalink 2:20 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The only way you can be ethical & famous is if you use your reach to expose frauds in society that are *not* (yet) considered frauds & put your reputation at risk. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/naval/status/1041513555961438208   Permalink 1:22 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb As to numerical tricks pic.twitter.com/xLWf4VzMyu Permalink 12:58 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Bernanke mistook the risks accumulation that lead to the crisis for the “great moderation”, in other words got it backward. Anyone who takes him seriously has an mental problem. https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/1041384873989222400   Permalink 12:01 AM – 17 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Chabris has @cfchabris a study showing the memory of chess players being local to the game. Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Any systematic study? Permalink 3:54 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Friends, what’s the real life performance of chess players? How do they fare in, say science and business? Permalink 3:51 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb muzzled Permalink 12:26 PM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb To answer the usual idiot bringing up Popper https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037273239347703808   Permalink 11:45 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I thought chess players would think in more than one step. Before arguing whether “fascists” should be museled, How do you know if someone is “fascist” if you don’t let him express his opinions? …Or the best way to exercise fascism is to call people fascists to shut them up. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1041376634446782467   Permalink 11:38 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb OK, there is a theorem for the proof of convergence. Herschfelds Convergence Theorem http://mathworld.wolfram.com/HerschfeldsConvergenceTheorem.html   Permalink 10:59 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@doshijatin 2/5 done ? Permalink 10:55 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1041301771556212737   Permalink 8:25 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb SUNDAY MATH RIDDLE, courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. pic.twitter.com/x5ZGSxUMkD Permalink 4:32 AM – 16 Sep 2018

@nntaleb DISCUSSION The *phenomenology* of aging as at least partly from the asymmetry of 1) stuff you put into your body (risk of harm> risk of improvement), 2) the nonlinearity of its dose-response (large vs hormetic small dose). (This is 2 ½ years of meth) #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/6d17dO3osw Permalink 6:21 AM – 15 Sep 2018

@Imamofpeace Some journalists lie even more than politicians. pic.twitter.com/J2Q2R15ICy Permalink 9:51 PM – 14 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen? My report *then*, to the Obama commission. All these talkers are still clueless about the reasons. https://www.academia.edu/37409070/Why_Did_The_Crisis_of_2008_Happen   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/SXP8t3iaMo”>  pic.twitter.com/SXP8t3iaMo Permalink 2:44 AM – 14 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia for some araq and kebbe. pic.twitter.com/tK0b0gB4Hn Permalink 9:50 AM – 13 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Wrong. The Levant coastal areas spoke Greek not Aramaic. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1040190108782215170   Permalink 4:41 AM – 13 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Delenda MONSANTO. Thank you markets. Let the death spiral start. Bayer is down 30% over the past couple of months. There are >8000 lawsuits coming. Never ever build your business messing with science & smearing scientists. It all comes out. Monsanto shills are unprotected. pic.twitter.com/U00l6c2d1j Permalink 5:43 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 3/ Friends, it is thrilling to see a group of rigorous & active Twitter pple correct a journalist on grounds of reason & rationality. The same happened when the Clev Clinic deleted some unempirical medical claims https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1037518226278834177   Our crowd is swelling! Thanks @Twitter! Permalink 3:50 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb KETO DISCUSSION Ketogenesis doesn’t require low-carb consumption. Just infrequent feeding, and not too infrequent at that. Just skip breakfast. (Discussion around Antifragility and Convexity in Medicine) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   cc:@drjasonfung @MichaelSagnerMD @GuruAnaerobic ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/sClNDVOb3c”>  pic.twitter.com/sClNDVOb3c Permalink 1:24 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb And the fool still doesn’t get that people insure the EFFECT not the CAUSE. Why is probability/risk so hard for journalists? https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1039946929214566403   Permalink 12:14 PM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The fact that ~½ taxes are paid by the 1% shd make anyone with ½ brain realize that there is a great deal of redistribution. In fact economists are just rent-seeking parasites w/no economic contribution and it is THEIR relatively high low-risk income that shd be redistributed Permalink 9:13 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb More evidence that economists don’t understand 1) humans, 2) redistribution & its side effects, 3) lack of envy on the part of noneconomists 4) much of anything else https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/1039326885136744449   Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb More Popper on the IYIs, the nudgers, the Platonic “experts”. Even gun control… pic.twitter.com/mt1XbtL9CZ Permalink 5:37 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2) The biggest irony is that what Soros calls his “Open Society” activity is about as un-Popperian as it gets. Permalink 4:45 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Karl Popper, in his Open Society, describes to a “T” the crowd of unelected patronizing “experts” who want to run the lives of people and call those who oppose them “populists”. Beautiful Plato vs Socrates passage. pic.twitter.com/gaTfAnSvZA Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I wonder how much money people have wasted paying for news & BS by journalists. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1039823401790189569   Permalink 3:51 AM – 12 Sep 2018

@nntaleb You can even compute the time to COVFEFE, @QifaNabki https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/937035937485348865   Permalink 6:29 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Actually can be 31 characters and my answer is if you have only 30 and necessarily start with a letter. Permalink 6:21 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Elias, @QifaNabki the literary name is trigintuple or triacontad (30-tuple) in a 140 sized multiset, which should be (if you don’t start with a space) quite sizeable. pic.twitter.com/hhWmvaZ1cE Permalink 6:19 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Exercise in combinatorics. 1t step, use the English alphabet, 26 letters + space, ?,!,@,&, for a total of 30. 140 characters. Treat lower and upper case as equivalent. Second step, Markov Chain. add a ( under the condition that it closes before a period and that it closes. https://twitter.com/QifaNabki/status/1039674231380946944   Permalink 6:03 PM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principle 11: No public institution or agency should be created without an expiration date. pic.twitter.com/xlVD1RrYvD Permalink 4:13 PM – 11 Sep 2018