Category Archives: Video

A conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Stephen Wolfram at the Wolfram Summer School 2021 | Youtube

Audio only.

Stephen Wolfram plays the role of Salonnière in this new, on-going series of intellectual explorations with special guests. Watch all of the conversations here:

Ioannidis, Tetlock, Summers, Masks, Oil, Russian Roulette, Astrology

From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben | Youtube
Published on Apr 24, 2020
+ Why the crisiss was not a Black Swan.
+ Masks compound (even if primitive)
+ Convexity Ben misleads with his “hedges”

Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (pdf 4/18/2020)

(Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine (pdf 7/31/2018)

The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System | NewYorker

As Taleb told me, “The great danger has always been too much connectivity.” Proliferating global networks, both physical and virtual, inevitably incorporate more fat-tail risks into a more interdependent and “fragile” system: not only risks such as pathogens but also computer viruses, or the hacking of information networks, or reckless budgetary management by financial institutions or state governments, or spectacular acts of terror. Any negative event along these lines can create a rolling, widening collapse—a true black swan—in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid.

Taleb: The Only Man Who Has A Clue | NakedCapitalism

Tutorial: Simple trick to see the effect of power laws | Youtube
Published on Apr 19, 2020
A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution becomes noise.
Once you establish that a variable is in the power law class, some necessary consequences come out.
To debunk that history is dominated by tail events, you must show it does not follow a power law.

@nntaleb So we can infer that the rate of growth is NOT Gaussian, must be in the borderline subexponential class. r can be negative of course. Permalink 12:54 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 12:42 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Math Du Jour: What is the Distribution of Pandemics if the rate of growth follows an exponential distribution with mean 1/\lambda? Explains very simply the result with @DrCirillo Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is the kind of crap dichotomy you hear, as if 1) letting the virus run wild would not kill the economy 2) It is the government that is closing the economy, not pple A segment of libertarians/conservatives have a reasoning defect as they think in binary & static labels.   Permalink 8:41 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb So far, by substitution Permalink 8:24 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a mathematical problem, only for those into math. I block cute comments that are not helpful & distract the readers. Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Quarantine workout Permalink 6:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Larry Summers, advisor? Aside from his hideous track record, Summers was fiercely AGAINST putting skin in the game of decision makers. He even managed to transform my claim that it was “necessary” into “sufficient” & argued on that basis.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Foreseen by @barabasi   Permalink 2:35 AM – 25 Apr 2020

@urcum62 Angela Merkel truly understands the Covid dynamics and the Math behind it. She also understands the diffucilties associated with low probabilities. #AngelaMerkel   Permalink 5:37 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Looks like the govmt is hiring Kroll to investigate #RiadPonzi’s books. Kroll specializes in FRAUD, tracking transfers, etc. Permalink 12:29 PM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add this to the list   Permalink 10:22 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Lebanon: #RiadPonzi Salameh is the most destructive central banker in history. He managed to stick to power for ~30 y through 10 governmnets. He is now trying to make it political. No, it is not because Hezb hates him that he is suddenly competent, honest, & principled. #Lebanon Permalink 10:11 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From the Convexity of Masks to Convexity Ben   via @YouTube Permalink 8:23 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb|twitter&par=sharebar   Permalink 7:39 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The point is not whether it works or not (it may); it is just irresponsible to gamble with citizens under such opacity.   Permalink 6:53 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@hjluks Sarcopenia should be a four-lettered word … If you’re over 40 it’s happening as you read this :-( . So much badness comes from a lack of muscle mass. So much goodness comes from improving your muscle mass.   Permalink 6:32 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@Monsantobuster Best summary, Prof @nntaleb   Permalink 3:06 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@vibinbaburajan [Thread] Nassim Taleb’s 17 best one-line wisdom. @nntalebbot @nntaleb @TalebWisdom 1. The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary. Permalink 2:24 AM – 24 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo.   Permalink 5:40 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@DavidSalazarVir Trying to get my head around fat-tails by studying @nntaleb’s latest technical book. Replicated some plots in #rstats #tidyverse   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:41 PM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I was expecting the #Lindy activists to dig out mask-wearing practices in history. For instance, the Tuareg berber tribes: men wore masks. Permalink 10:53 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Emanuel Derman (who knows something about probability) exposing the dangerous BS by Phil the Rat @PTetlock –whose knowledge of probability is way too primitive.   Permalink 9:26 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo “Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases” using Extreme Value Theory. Advice by non EVT-trained epidemiologists concerning COVID-19th tail risks is no different from advice by a carpenter concerning complex odds at roulette tables.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:20 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From my dispute w/ #NoConvexityBen Meng from CALPERS (currently) largest fund on planet PRINCIPLE: Thou Shalt Not compare convex payoffs (w/ tiny downside) to linear ones (w/yuuge downside). More Basic: Thou Shalt Not Call speculative trades “hedges”.   Permalink 5:04 AM – 23 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The safest policy is to act as if we had NO idea about the consequences of this.   Permalink 2:41 PM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are interested in masks & testing. Not in geopolitics (except on the weekend). Not in spending trillions on nuclear weapons when we can’t even get N95 masks.   Permalink 10:59 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 10:34 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Gambling by governments is irresponsible, even if the result turns out to be favorable. Permalink 10:25 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Our security = testing incoming passengers at JFK, not where trillions were spent: building yuuuge capabilities against very weak nations. Where are the tests? Where are the masks? Spending trillions (literally) because governments don’t understand the real sources of risk.   Permalink 8:41 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paulina N is correct to emphasize the death toll. But it will be much higher as you must integrate future deaths at rate. Also missing morbidity: % of survivors end up with permanent lung & other damage. Finally, even if Sw ends up ahead (it won’t), the move is not responsible.   Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Reduced connectivity Masks Culturally, precaution is respected   Permalink 4:29 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bachelier was right.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:23 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb New hobby thanks to lockdown: Olympic lifts   Permalink 3:17 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom Here is one of my favorite @nntaleb quotes: “Don’t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.” Permalink 1:37 AM – 22 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Joe is good. Very good. Should we start calling him “Sherlock Shipman”?   Permalink 3:39 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb LINDY Quarantine & restriction of mobility are Lindy; they are present in the old testament & in Islam: “If you’re away, & disease breaks out, you stay there. If home, you stay home.”   Permalink 2:19 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@DrAmithaMD Waited for this… such a good analysis on whether #COVID19 was a rare event (it was, but we ignored the signs). “The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System” @nntaleb   via @NewYorker @bavishai Permalink 12:09 PM – 21 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman STATISTICAL INFERENCE PUZZLE @nntaleb Is “2 false positives in 401 trials” consistent with “50 false positives in 3300 trials”? What is a good null hypothesis, and what is the p-value? Permalink 8:05 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Actually slight modification to the great results by “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis. You don’t need Jensen to prove the inequality Permalink 6:51 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The Trump Administration is suspending immigration owing to the Corovirus pandemic after discovering the interesting epidemiological property that (documented) immigrants are highly infectious, but tourists & business visitors are not. Permalink 6:48 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Another grave error in the “Johnny evidence” Ioannidis & friends paper, not too dissimilar to Simpson’s paradox, (also spotted by @gian_rinaldi, private communication): They don’t get the convexity of divisions. If a result doesn’t make sense & comes from nerds, it is wrong.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:37 AM – 21 Apr 2020

@ishirubi Ok I can go rest in peace now: Permalink 3:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3) This is from Dynamic Hedging (1997), with a discussion of fungibility and first deliverable contract. Permalink 12:43 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Oil: The basis is out of whack because of storage. It is like being stuck in traffic in a Bentley, and no possibility of leaving it so you need to pay someone to take it from you. Permalink 12:30 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@paulanawfal من كم شهر رحت لأحضر ندوة ل @nntaleb بالجامعة اليسوعية وما كان في وسعى مبارح حضرت الإعادة وهيدا المقطع هو المفضل الي بالندوة #RamsusRiad Permalink 12:02 PM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Every #RWRI we discuss the situation how *oil above ground* (hence the front oil future) can sqeeze suckers and have a negative value because it can be impossible to store during a glut and impossible to abandon because of EPA. Negative optionality from liability.   Permalink 11:56 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #protectyourpension #CalPERS #tailrisk #tailhedge   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:51 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2015: When people ask me to talk about RISK, I talk about epidemics. Not ISIS, not journalistic BS. [I lost weight and increased by Max DL by 100 lbs since]   via @YouTube Permalink 9:08 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Sorry, I meant he doesn’t get that car accidents are not multiplicative. IOANNIDIS: Here we have someone doing probability & lecturing people on probability errors who like this ignorant Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock has never heard of Chernoff bounds. Permalink 7:54 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis, in his argumentation, reasoning, and demeanor reminds me of what we call “a pre-blown up trader”. He doesn’t get (among other things) that driving 9 to 415 miles is not multiplicative and CONTAGIOUS.   Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is a statistical signal abt HQN to ADDRESS even if Zelenko, like Raoult, doesn’t look like Dr. Could be: samples of large “anecdotes” are biased, or NY & Marseilles hide the dead. Note that the media DOES NOT require a double blind for Gilead. Explain the dual standards.   Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Apr 2020

@balajis Just-the-flu journalists failed across the board. That includes Fox, and the NYT reporter now denouncing Fox. Permalink 3:16 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Compare the richest countries, such as Sweden, making a “tradoff” (which is not even a tradeoff anyway) compared to much poorer places in the East Med, India, or China that wouldn’t even remotely consider a Faustian bargain. Shame. Wealth brings moral degeneracy. Permalink 2:25 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb GERONTICIDE is the sign of moral decay. Indian official explained only “rich” countries make a tradeoff betw lives & “economy” (assuming they are separable). The argument of “lockdown costing lives” is bunk: in the poor country, India, ~nobody starved. The richer, the worse!!! Permalink 1:30 PM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb People are starting to understand stuff. It took a pandemic for that. I never never dreamed that my Russian Roulette argument would be expressed by those against whom I have used it over the past 2 decades. Permalink 10:57 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution is NOISE.   Permalink 10:04 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo on the Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases. Explains our attitude towards the disease; why epidemiological models are largely NOISE.   Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rats will also be liars. “Phil the rat” @PTetlock is misrepresenting the reason I call him a rat. It is for spending years trying to publicly discredit our concern for tail payoff, ergodicity w/o a slightest clue abt the statistical implication of power laws, even probability. Permalink 7:06 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Solution. This friend of mine found the trick. If there is (cc) on Youtube you can see both the subtitles in the original language and the transcript in English. Permalink 4:19 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Add: the IYI was wrong on masks, mobility, multiplicative risks, etc.   Permalink 4:02 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Alternative explanations are 1) ouzo (what we call in the Levant “the milk of lions”), 2) Orthodoxy: Unlike Spain, Greece celebrates Easter on the correct calendar, 3) Greek coffee (a.k.a. Turkish). Otherwise quite convincing.   Permalink 3:20 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@SrinivasR1729 Go down deep enough into anything and you will find mathematics. Permalink 12:12 AM – 19 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Permalink 4:56 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Learned to cook linguini with squid ink. Who needs restaurants when you have 1) internet access, 2) good olive oil, 3) really fresh garlic & parsley, 4) fresh tomatoes, 5) good white wine, 6) salt, etc. Permalink 4:53 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Currently people testing positive (or presumptive positive) are sent home to infect their families. Where is the outrage? There should be other options so that families will be safe. Every community, state and country, should have a “Safe Family” program. Permalink 4:23 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, this friend of mine wants to watch a Greek movie with both Greek and English subtitles. Netflix can do it in other languages, not Greek (he is based in the US). Is there a way to do it? Permalink 3:55 PM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Χριστός Ανέστη ! Permalink 11:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@artemon Seems like a great case of absence of evidence being treated like evidence of absence, plus violating the precautionary principle. Thank you @nntaleb for teaching me to see these clearly.   Permalink 10:35 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nobody realized that for Lebanon, Greece, Cyprus, & Marseilles, the real reason of the low rate of Corona infections/fatalities is the arak/ouzo/pastis. Experiments show you need to drink it during & before every meal for it to be effective. And try the purest you can find. Permalink 8:48 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Bravo #Lebanon. Early paranoia pays! Permalink 4:47 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@nntaleb What is behind, among others, the moniker “Phil the rat” @PTetlock.   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@berndschiffer And also @nntaleb ‘s “new kind of ingratitude” comes to mind. “Who is more valuable, the politician who avoids a war or the one who starts a new one (and is lucky enough to win)?” #COVID19Aus #COVID Permalink 3:11 AM – 18 Apr 2020

@uair01 Nice picture of extremistan versus mediocristan mortality and why ” Covid is different: @nntaleb @trishankkarthik   Permalink 7:40 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@stevenstrogatz Yes, @nntaleb practices what he preaches. On the day we met, he walked me around New York for seven hours and enjoyed a plate of pasta with squid ink.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:28 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Drowning in swimming pools is extremely contagious and multiplicative.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 17 Apr 2020

@nntaleb HITS THE SPOT: “What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists & virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisons and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about.”   Permalink 5:23 PM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb OK, OK. Thanks @yvessmith   Permalink 11:57 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: In Judeo-Arabic Baghdad seems to be spelled בגדד not בעדד(with a gimmel not a ghayn) (unlike more historical غزة-> עזה or Gomorrah עֲמֹרָה not גמֹרָה from transliteration Γομορραν) (pharyngeal [ʕ] not epiglottal [ʢ.) When was the غ lost in Hebrew? Permalink 10:50 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Why you cannot use epidemiological models with point estimates when variables are stochastic. An illustration. You end up with a crazy distribution of outcomes, get fooled. This is our problem with the UK “model”. Permalink 9:36 AM – 16 Apr 2020

@nntaleb This is potentially yuuuuge. Do not miss.   Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I don’t know if he (and those liking the graph) realize that an R-squared of .15 means, if you look at it generously, that almost all the variance is for random reasons, something like ~98% (conventional) or (entropy) >99.9%. @salilstatistics   Permalink 4:52 AM – 14 Apr 2020

@Jac5Connor Nassim asks an important question: Do masks cause earthquakes? I bet this is why the WHO took so long to recommend them.   Permalink 1:14 PM – 13 Apr 2020

@gernelle «Une catégorie de personnes ne cesse d’augmenter(…) plus douées pour expliquer que pour comprendre. Ou plus douées pour expliquer que pour faire.” ⁦@nntaleb⁩ cité par ⁦@sebastienlefol⁩ dans un édito percutant #covid ⁦@LePoint⁩   Permalink 11:40 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Just explained in a lecture that risk management and “science” are not the same thing. Risk is about asymmetries. With .1% error rate, few flight attendants would be alive. Permalink 7:14 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Do not conflate doing science and being nice and polite to scientists. Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Friends, another robust question to get the convexity. How many people contracted COVID while wearing surgical masks? How many w/N95? How many with cowboy scarves? (Assume for now homogeneity. We are looking for convexity, not measurement). Permalink 7:13 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We have a hint: @dzviovich just sent me something useful: comparison of US vs CZ w/a single sign. difference: edict to wear maks. We know masks work (from other combined statistical signals). Now let’s back up the convexity of probability of infection to particle concentration. Permalink 7:06 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb We need to get the probability of getting sick at different concentration of droplets. We could probably back it up (or get a handle on the convexity) from country data (Czech republic). Intuition: reduction of 70% of particles is yuuuge: home masks should work. Plus if 2-way! Permalink 6:53 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb There is something about “ceteris paribus” (everything else being constant) for a marginal property that commentators are not getting. Permalink 5:36 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@spwells An excerpt from my interview with @VanceCrowe discussing why the Coronavirus pandemic isn’t a black swan event. @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 5:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The answer is by @Physical_Prep which maps to the 2/3 scaling exponent found by Geoffrey West. It depends on your level of course as you can see.   Permalink 4:45 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb WEIGHTLIFTING Friends, for every additional 10lbs of say deadlift how many additional pounds of muscle mass would be gained? Approximately of course. Permalink 3:07 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I’ve lost weight since.   Permalink 2:26 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@normonics John Conway lost to coronavirus. That is terrible news. Conway’s game of life is something I always show at #RWRI. NEVER fails to make the floating lightbulbs above everyone’s heads spark on. RIP   Permalink 1:54 PM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday! And, to those on the non-Orthodox calendar, Happy Easter! Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb That’s for an individual. If everyone wore *VERY BAD* masks, I guess the number of deaths would drop by a yuuuge factor, maybe 90%. Why? p is probability of infection, look at 1-p^n because everyone is reducing. For 2 pple masks act a 2-way filter, 1-p^2. Yuuge. Permalink 4:44 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The proof is in   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:30 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to viruses by 30% thanks to an “imperfect” mask does not mean reducing risk of contracting the disease by just 30%. By convexity, it must be more than 30%, can even be 95%. Permalink 4:22 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Treading *absence of evidence* as *evidence of absence* is a form of overoptimization. Permalink 3:52 AM – 12 Apr 2020

@joe_shipman   This is an very evil article. It may not be apparent at first why I make such a serious charge. But I stand by it. It is viciously slanted with sophistical language and manipulative presentation, even though the truth can be discerned anyway. @nntaleb Permalink 7:21 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb and… the NYT and science journos and ignorant “evidence based” epidemiologists who can’t read absence of evidence got us here. Don’t blame mayors who shut down cities, blame misinformation about masks and mobility. Blame the New York Times. Permalink 6:49 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb It’s not the reaction that wrecked the economy. It’s the LACK of INITIAL reaction that wrecked the economy. Proper border controls on Jan 26, plus masks & tests & we’d be fine now. The @CDC, @WHO, UK Gov helped spread disinformation. After 3 m, still no masks & tests!!! Permalink 6:38 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Correction: Does Big Pharma own the media? Permalink 3:22 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Chloroquine: Does Big Pharma owns the media? + Studies are said to be “not rigorous” when it comes to Chloroquine in spite of robust statistical signal + Studies w/less rigor and significance are promoted when it comes to drugs by Gilead Note: Chl was OTC, costs 1 Euro a pack. Permalink 3:19 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Managed to sneak in 2 footnotes for my new book related to COVID before the printing starts.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:57 PM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best therapy; lowers our anxiety and helps organize our minds while facing mild uncertainty. Aesthetic and harmless; unlike economics and social “science”. Discussed in #FooledbyRandomness   Permalink 11:34 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@birdxi1988 This is how @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam and @normonics ‘s Precautionary Principle destroys the evidence-based practices. In January, they specifically warned that the estimated R0 would be biased downwards. Guess what, CDC says that R0 appears to be 5.7 vs. 2.2-2.7 previously thought! Permalink 11:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@davidsarac What Nassim Nicholas Taleb is showing us by his persistent rudeness is that things one is ready to be rude about are worthy of understanding too In terms of evolutionary dynamics, it is a cry of the bird warning other birds predator is approaching Permalink 10:54 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb More elegant. It is hard to live on a planet where the most cited person in epidemiology, John Ioannidis, doesn’t understand exponential, hence multiplication. Yet he tries to make policy. Permalink 8:57 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Wrong. Levantine coast had 5 additional Greek areas. Plus Berytus and Baalbeck spoke mainly Latin owing to Law school and Roman resettlements.   Permalink 7:43 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb John Ioannidis does not get that model uncertainty WORSENS possible outcomes under exponential growth & should lead to MORE reaction. Dangerous ignorance. Here is a derivation from Jensen’s ineq. Permalink 7:26 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@pierrewaters Localism & mafia: news the @nntaleb crew will like:   Permalink 5:28 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@TalebWisdom “Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:18 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@mikeharrisNY Their logic and yours is wrong. Because doors sometimes fail to stop thieves, does it mean we should not have doors? Is this what is proposed? Can someone be so dump? Apparently, yes. Permalink 1:59 AM – 11 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rightwing sociopathic quacks like @BjornLomborg: are ALWAYS on the wrong side of things precautionary, (including climate). Saying “no worse than the flu” was ignorant 3 months ago; saying it after data from the past few weeks is outright malfeasance. @Twitter blocks fakenews.   Permalink 4:02 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb From @RupertRead: states that Precautionary Principle applies ONLY to specific multiplicative things/power law call with alpha<2 Beware misinformaiton by frauds such as the rat @PTetlock & shill @Dgardner making it look like undirected paranoia (Martians invading the planet). Permalink 12:15 PM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Very encouraging to see young Lebanese from all backgrounds attacking the shill #MarcelGhanem for making an antisemitic remark. Things have changed!   Permalink 11:53 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@yaneerbaryam Everyone must see!!!   Permalink 11:23 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@BrankoMilan Indeed, after every seasonal flu, NYC does mass graves… How can people write such easily contradicted things is beyond me to understand.   Permalink 10:42 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Many solutions, mostly @SrinivasR1729 This tidies the whole “ting”. Permalink 10:40 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@eassily Hah ! @nntaleb and @byzantinepower would appreciate this Permalink 6:10 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Weekend distraction. By @SrinivasR1729 Permalink 5:01 AM – 10 Apr 2020

@nntaleb The best part about this is that I can walk in the park without being asked for a selfie (or an autograph) by a graduate student in computer science at the local university.   Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Yes, office transmission is much much much more controlled than cross-geographical superspreaders.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Rest in Peace, real heroes. And criminal neglect by risk-blind “evidence based” bureaucrats. And, friends, in the meanwhile, wear a mask. Again, than you all the Dr Chowdhurys.   Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Serious business (weight trainining): Friends (@GrantSSC & others), how long, after a *true* 5RM or 1RM deadlift (meaning you can’t redo it right away), does it take to recover at 100% and redo it? 20 minutes? 4 hours? 3 days? Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Fat tails. Reduce superspreaders.   Permalink 9:01 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@cdipaola62 @Judgenap thoughts on prospect of class action lawsuits against hospitals/health systems? Will the nurse’s unions put pressure on in other ways? Interested in your opinion. @nntaleb @CalNurses @MassNurses   Permalink 5:25 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Most “evidence based” IYIs use statistical tools they don’t understand AND are deprived of the logical faculties of grandmothers, which explains the explosive blunders of @WHO, “science” journos, @CassSunstein, @R_Thaler, idiots like @PTetlock the rat, etc.   Permalink 5:09 AM – 9 Apr 2020

@nntaleb FAT TAIL PROPERTY 90-98% of the diffusion can be reduced by limiting superspreaders & forcing masks: + Subways/buses + Conferences (especially involving psychologists/behavioral economists) + Planes + Elevators + Bars with bad Negronis + Indoor restaurants/cafés Rest is normal.   Permalink 5:42 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Statistically, you should see much more of this. The system imposes some #Skininthegame: those who inflict risks on others are subjected themselves to the same risks. As with Boris. Sad.   via @nypost Permalink 1:45 PM – 8 Apr 2020

@mncube This is how @nntaleb trades   Permalink 11:17 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb And Mr @david_perell if you need ancestry for my version of “skin in the game”, you don’t go up to Steve Jobs. Try harder and deeper into history: Hammurabi, >3750 years ago. Permalink 11:15 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Nice try, @david_perell He is using the term “skin in the game” as incentive not as risk asymmetry (be responsible for the harm you do). Try again.   Permalink 11:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR February in Chr Aramaic is Shbat,ܫܒܳܛ, “blows” from ” רוח נשבת” (the wind blows, original Accadian Šabātu) hence “windy month”. (Others were ~Babylonian gods). Remarkably the French Revolution renamed “Ventôse” (windy month) the span from Feb ~19-March 19. Permalink 6:58 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@mikeandallie Adding to the prior retweet to say that Nassim’s 2019 paper linked below plus the recent work of @ole_b_peters and @alex_adamou on ergodicity economics have been hugely influential to me not just in thinking about option pricing, but thinking about long-dated risk generally.   Permalink 6:23 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb You did not need recent events to get that the mean-variance based methods, along with RISK PARITY used in finance (by many funds) are a fraud. I explained the details in #TheBlackSwan See paper how we (my friends & I) price options under power laws.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:16 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb In a hospital if you are dealing with patients. But in social life you don’t have the exposure and, critically, BOTH have masks.   Permalink 4:59 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Asymmetry. Never bail out without clawback.   Permalink 4:13 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb I revealed it at the USJ lecture last November, from data from (among others) Toufic Gaspard (live on national TV). #RiadPonzi then launched a smear campaign.   Permalink 4:04 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@GMWatch Powerful condemnation of the UK govt’s failure to follow the #PrecautionaryPrinciple over #COVID19 — by UEA professor @RupertRead, who together with @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @normonics & others, has for months repeatedly been demanding precautionary action to save lives.   Permalink 3:41 AM – 8 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 3)Other fallacy is by the *tradeoff idiots* who don’t get: a) even if governments did nothing, airplanes & restaurants would be bust by now as # pple are doing bottom-up quarantines b)hospitals would be overwhelmed c)millions of young sick (many w/permanent damage) d)+uncertainty Permalink 5:45 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb 2) I meant don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want *your children* to treat you! Actually the “triage” (sacrificing the old) is a new European thing introduced in Italy; Roman society worshiped & protected the elders. Same with Eastern societies. (Senatus=Sheikh=elder). Permalink 5:17 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@nntaleb Aside from the pathetic modeling behind the “herd immunity”: it is morally repulsive. Civilization RESIDES in the enforcement of intergenerational golden (actuallly, silver rules): don’t treat your parents the way you don’t want them to treat you! From #SkinInTheGame #Incerto Permalink 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2020

@spwells Spread of the Olive Tree in the Mediterranean Basin ⁦@PZalloua⁩ ⁦@nntaleb⁩   Permalink 11:25 AM – 7 Apr 2020

#Moralhazard, @SamHarrisOrg, @PTetlock, Ioannidis, India, UBI, @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein, LUNACY IN THE UK,

Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens–Coronavirus: A Note (pdf)
T H E  T E C H N I C A L  I N C E R T O  C O L L E C T I O N (460 pg pdf)
Ethics of Precaution: Individual and Systemic Risk (Sign up to download pdf)
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…”(Sign up to download pdf)

@nntaleb We need a hall of shame in this thread. These people got us here owing to the lack of preparation. Murderous idiots!   Permalink 9:44 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine extends great thanks to ⁦@GrantSSC⁩ and other twitterlifters for helping with this. Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Jaffer of course. Make lemons   Permalink 9:01 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@HarryDCrane Cost how many lives?   Permalink 8:17 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@TMFStoffel By the end of Mar, entire country will be on lockdown. Hope it doesn’t take that long If we had listened to @yaneerbaryam, @normonics, and @nntaleb when they issued their warning (Jan 26th, I believe), this wouldn’t be necessary. IF we have guts to do it, recovery starts May 1 Permalink 7:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There is a suspicion that STAT NEWS which published the Ioannidis article is an Industry shill. It published Henry I. Miller AFTER he was caught working for Monsanto for which he was fired from Stanford and his columns were removed from Forbes.   Permalink 6:30 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Some days I have hordes after me. Some large event happens, and I can do no wrong. Then a quiet period…   Permalink 5:29 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Third conversation with @nntaleb about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is systemic risk / what not to do when a truck is headed your way   Permalink 2:28 PM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb typo: “instead of” contating you. Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Spyros is both an admirable man & a genuine scholar. — When you disagree with @spyrosmakrid, as a friend, you solve it w/Ouzo personally, never in public. Unlike Phil the rat @PTetlock who mocks you on the web before contacting you.   Permalink 11:42 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@spyrosmakrid Nobody can doubt that the world will now spend tens of trillions to fight the coronavirus while spending would have been minimal in Jan, not to mention all the lives that would have been saved and the trillions of stock market losses avoided. I must admit I was wrong. @nntaleb   Permalink 11:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This friend of mine in Atlanta is looking for a barbell to buy for immediate delivery. Permalink 10:36 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Central aspect of the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE at the systemic level: it applies to a very narrow set of conditions, centrally: FAT TAILS from multiplicative effects, w/o circuit breakers. The problem w dangerous BS vendors like @SaPinker/@PTetlock is their half training. 1 /n Permalink 10:28 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My paper on tail option pricing (revealing the equations at UNIVERSA) is under revision by a journal. What happened is not an “outlier” But anyone who after today still says “tail options are expensive” deserves to be put in a sanatorium.   Permalink 9:19 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Ioannidis problem: these pseudoempirical idiots don’t get that INSURANCE is cheaper than catastrophe, which is why under convexity you act early, quickly, and … CHEAPLY. We now spent 2 Trillion when it could have been minimal on Jan 26.   Permalink 8:15 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jeremias_bosch Right, now this is it. I hated you for so long and now I come back to you @nntaleb like a child that has filled all the oil lamps in the house with water and lived in darkness, out of his own stupidity. Keep on giving them what they deserve. Never stop, never! Permalink 7:43 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why my forthcoming textbook has a defect in reasoning named after him: the “Pinker problem”, or pseudo-empiricism with systemic variables or fat-tailed domains.   Permalink 7:37 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CONVEXITY OF ECONOMIC EFFECTS FROM PANDEMICS Why the economic costs from pandemics can still grow exponentially even when infection rates slow down. We live in an overoptimized world. Permalink 6:21 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The UK government is borderline psychopathic. Or maybe not borderline. (If true.)   Permalink 5:16 AM – 20 Mar 2020

@jsferjou Bravo @philippejuvin Les médecins «officiels» qui ont décidé il y a qques semaines q les tests (54€ pièce) étaient inutiles ne veulent ni se déjuger ni «engraisser les labos» (témoignage recueilli sous couvert d’anonymat) Contrairement aux masques il n’y a pourtant pas pénurie   Permalink 3:18 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The intuition of what @wtgowers likes about Yaneer’s article is that you’d rather see islands of concentrated infections (pink) & safer areas than evenly distributed. Simply islands have lower concentration than continents/circuit breakers. @dzviovich can you show the automata?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:07 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking idiot my whole point is the asymmetry: how to behave with things we can’t predict. Permalink 12:11 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb My own review is “Ioannidis mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence /recommends to buy insurance AFTER the harm when we now have evidence”. Risk requires asymmetric evidence. Harry Crane has a longer review   Permalink 12:00 PM – 19 Mar 2020

@JackDav88 I cannot speak for Taleb, but his basic point was the Ioannidis is treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. That’s enough to bring the entire argument down. If you are still arguing for only “data-driven” approaches under uncertainty there is nothing else I can say. Permalink 11:53 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The problem with the Ioannidis article is that it is retweeted by every imbecile in sight as it gives cover to their beliefs.   Permalink 11:51 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2/ Another friend lost his job in the service industry. He immediately found the substitute (what gains from quarantine) & is thriving. He asked to not release the exact industry (for now) so local people don’t take the biz away from him. Permalink 11:33 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntalebbot “It is a very recent disease to mistake the unobserved for the nonexistent; but some are plagued with the worse disease of mistaking the unobserved for the unobservable.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@Firefly_fan @nntaleb commenting John “clueless” Ioannidis:   NAILS IT. Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The paper is here. It blew up on Academia   Permalink 10:41 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb MAKE LEMONADE OUT OF LEMONS! Yuuuge hero is @Jaffer22915438: given a shortage of hand sanitizers so he went looking for idle factories, found one, got the products & is now shipping 18,000 units/day. Think how instead of hunkering down you can get aggressive. #Antifragile 1/n   Permalink 9:23 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam .@nntaleb and I discuss superspreaders, lockdowns and how to stop the outbreak   Permalink 7:10 AM – 19 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Ioannidis got the reasoning completely BACKWARD. I mean reallllllly backward. In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method. That’s the message of the INCERTO.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:29 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Irresponsible claim. Possible but v. v. highly uncertain. One needs to be blind to make such a strong claim while posting this graph. Just look at the points.   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb A review of Ferguson et al., paper using the U.K. standard model for virus risks, w/@yaneerbaryam Paper underestimates the benefits of a LOCKDOWN. As we saw, SIR-type models fail to capture granularity and difference between individuals and AGGREGATES.…_   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:17 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@joe_shipman MATH PUZZLE FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT @nntaleb He is too busy saving countries from listening to credentialed morons. You cut a circular disk of paper radially to make wedges to be taped into conical paper cups. To maximize total volume you do 2 cups; what should the angles be? Permalink 7:51 AM – 17 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Same with insurance models. Loss from hurricanes aren’t what you think are losses from hurricanes, even if your estimate of the intensity is correct. Why? Because the costs of the material goes up nonlinearly owing to (conditional) excess demand. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am the ONLY one who is impolite and crass. Others are polite and well behaved (except that Joe is learning to be rude)   Permalink 5:34 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Something UK modelers (idiots) did not get with hospitalization that we traders and modelers in nonlinearities have know since (1997): The market is a large movie theater with a small door. Same for hospital capacity. Gabish? Permalink 5:29 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Nerds: In 2008, The B of England was managing risk w the “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model” which assumed no banks, NO TAILS & no crises. They got insulted when I called it a fraud. Epidemiologists have similar flaws. No tails from model error. No perturbations.   Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Bravo.   Permalink 3:21 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So we spend >700bn on imaginary risks from listening to IYI geopoliticians & journos when in fact the true enemy is a virus you pick up doing high five with the bartender. Time to fire the Foreign Affairs/Think Tank establishment, close political “science”depts & reset. Reset. Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I laughed so hard people I drank the wrong way & started coughing which scared everyone around me! The “BS Busting” operation seeking to eradicate statistical BS. Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just a reminder that “Risk Parity” is a scam. Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The scoop: @realDonaldTrump’s staff relied on OUR memo from Jan 26 (@normonics & @yaneerbaryam), which gave solid grounds to ignore “academic” naive forecasting models estimating low impact from the China virus. #PrecautionaryPrinciple   Permalink 9:14 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb That was 2010.   Permalink 7:30 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The place where: Ramses II, Nebuchadnezzar, Esarhaddon, Caracalla, Napoleon III, etc. left commemorative Stellae. Preserve Nahrl Kalb! Help protect the site from real-estate fraudsters.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 16 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Long walks. 18000 steps yesterday   Permalink 1:40 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Marks my words: 1) @R_Thaler & @CassSunstein will go down as open dangers to society, 2) Thaler’s models have already been debunked so if he is ever remembered, he will be remembered for his fake research.   Permalink 1:28 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb So the methodology (with heuristics we can even teach at #RWRI) is figuring out potential model impact from simple nonlinearity. Alas, many epi models turn into pure hogwash. Nice representation, but unreliable for decision making. Permalink 1:22 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “You are free in inverse proportion to the number of people to whom you can’t say “fuck you”.” – @nntaleb Permalink 1:06 PM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why you are harming others by not “overreacting”   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:34 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Us vs @sapinker and “evidence based” pseudo-empiricism. From a #RWRI attendant   Permalink 8:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. A #RWRI Sunday strip with @nntaleb & @financequant & Raphael Douady. This strip is included in my newest mini-book Nr. 3 available here:   Previous buyers will get a free update per e-mail ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:42 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb *My profession=finding holes in models by IYIs I selected SIMPLEST SIR modelto check sensitivity to parametrization/convexity to error, common w/3 nonlinear ODEs. Every refinement to nonlinearM creates EXPLOSION of errors,curseofdimensionality (Yan & Chowellfor improvements) Permalink 8:18 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Here is my code, in case I made mistakes. It’s from the elementary SIR differential equations. Permalink 7:02 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Policy is a speculative lunacy. Playing with the toy standard epidemiological SIR model. We have no idea how model parameters cause a yuuuge variation in ourcomes. We don’t even know the central parameters/whether stochastic. Try to add perturbations for “herd immunity”. Permalink 5:47 AM – 15 Mar 2020

@wael_atallah Thank God there is still some sense in the world! Chocolate Hummus not selling despite the panic. Permalink 1:07 PM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK Herd Immunity & ANTIFRAGILITY What drove me bananas is some imbecile who said “it was an antifragile strategy”. NOTHING can be antifragile unless you remove the left tail. I go bananas when people cite me backwards. Permalink 10:42 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Done!   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #zerohedge #notasafehaven #riskyparity @RayDalio   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Joe Norman, @yaneerbaryam & I did not “react” on Jan 26 with out paper. We had been preparing for the statement since the poor understanding of Ebola’s tail risk. This is from Nov 2018. Permalink 10:08 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb I am a risk analyst & probability modeler. Not a virologist. I assumed reinfection possible because of lack of evidence. But if virologists (like this UK a @TheCrisk) state that reinfection is common for other Coronaviruses (this one has too short a life), then CASE CLOSED. Permalink 9:56 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK’s “herd immunity” risk-blind strategy hinges on unempirical psycholophasters’ theory abt “crisis fatigue” & “nudging” BS. Assumes 1) no reinfection 2) hospitals will not be overwhelmed (w secondary deaths), 3) disease must return 4) no vaccine is coming Total IYI Lunacy. Permalink 9:33 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam How to stop an outbreak (and why China won’t have to reimpose restrictions) Squares represent individuals: grey susceptible; yellow latent; red infected and contagious; black deceased or recovered; and light blue are isolated. 1/2   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:43 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb There MUST be laws barring economists from doing regressions, just as there are laws preventing fortune tellers from giving medical advice. @DrCirillo   Permalink 4:41 AM – 14 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And obviously in Aramaic: Syriac and Mishnaic Permalink 2:29 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Apparently there is ستر in Arabic could be cover but so uncommon that I wonder where it is used. Permalink 2:24 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (Proverbs 27.12) Note the Lebanese “setra” from נסתר (apparently not in Arabic); unless we find an Aramaic equivalen it would be Phoenician. Permalink 2:05 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb יב ערום ראה רעה נסתר פתאים עברו נענשו In Lebanese (literal): L 3aa2l lamma yshuf l khatar baddo l stra, L basit bkammel wbyékela In Lebanese (saying) Alf jabén w la alla yer7amo. #PrecautionaryPrinciple Permalink 1:53 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LUNACY IN THE UK Very clear on “herd immunity” assuming immunity is reached, no permanent damage, and NO VARIANCE for the parameters.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:36 PM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Only way to counter the fools at 10 Downing is for team w/@yaneerbaryam & @normonics : 1-Pressure US gov to block travel from UK 2-Issue guidelines for UK citizens to protect themselves from both corona & the gov of Boris-the-dupe @BorisJohnson 3- Show errors in epi studies Permalink 9:48 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Full book is here   Permalink 8:45 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The hardest thing to absorb for a “well educated” IYI is: absence of evidence ≢ evidence of absence   Permalink 7:36 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb About everybody seems to be working under the hypothesis that those who recover from the virus are permanently in the SAME condition as those who never got it. Permalink 7:10 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SKIN IN THE GAME All those in the UK who are in favor of the “herd immunity” BS should self-infect with the virus. Includes ALL decision-makers, science advisors and “Boris no Precaution”. Now. #SkinintheGame is about filtering those with systemic danger out of the system. Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@neilchriss Of course I prefer 90% doors locked to no doors locked. I also prefer Russian roulette with one bullet vs two. Justifying a bad alternative by presenting worse ones is precisely why most people suck at risk. Permalink 6:07 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If you don’t like my style, go follow the Washington Post. Never lecture someone on her or his style! Permalink 5:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 5) Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error. Permalink 5:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error.   Permalink 5:08 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 41 langues.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@Premysl_The_Man Over 1000 volunteers for   will fight this. Lower connectivity, now! @yaneerbaryam Permalink 4:23 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) On Jan 26 when ~1000 infected people we issued our warning on how to handle the pandemic: take no chances, stay ahead of it. Precautionary measures based on symmetry of errors.   Permalink 4:19 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 3) You don’t board a plane w/safety w/p-value of .05 (likely to be miscomputed). If they used their “scientific” approach to risk management no pilot would be alive today. Risk require much more reliability than “evidence based” methods which are backward-looking & flawed. Permalink 4:14 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb UK NUDGE UNIT 1) Just as before the crisis of 2008-9 I was shouting that economic “experts” were no experts, we will sorely discover that behavioral “experts” are even more unreliable. 2) Even psychs admit behavioral papers replicate <½, that is the reliability of astrology. Permalink 4:09 AM – 13 Mar 2020

@nntaleb h/t @sothisispietro Permalink 6:49 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually, it is not obvious. Medication might be accelerating their problems.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:18 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@TalebWisdom “Automation makes otherwise pleasant activities turn into “work”.” – Nassim Taleb #automation #robotics Permalink 5:41 PM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The thick paper Permalink 11:08 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Friends, the PDF for the Technical Incerto (expected >2 volumes) will be free.   Two options: (Note Amazon may list with big discount) Permalink 10:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@GuruAnaerobic Mayoral hopeful @RoryStewartUK has been retweeting @nntaleb   Permalink 10:24 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@okeyego The point of panic is to prevent the virus from spreading in the first place, imbecile, not to help those already infected with surviving. Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@normonics Dear @GovChrisSununu Please see my letter below as well the note we wrote in January that drove the travel restrictions that have bought us time. I submitted this letter on your website as well so you have my contact info there. Please don’t hesitate. Best, Joe Permalink 8:52 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Remember that the US is not a Republic but (still) a Federation. The president can control foreign access, but not what happens in the States/communes. Some States such as NY are ahead of the game; they even ordered their own testing kits. Others so so. #Localism Permalink 8:00 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Psychologists themselves own that >55% of their results don’t replicate. I’ve shown that 100% of what they do in fat tailed domains is exactly backward.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb REMINDER: Psychologists as a collective are probability-ignorant BS vendors publishing unrigorous crap. Just a reminder.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Donaldo: If you own the mahhket on the way up, you will also own it on the way down.   Permalink 6:46 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb SOLUTION: market expects +/- 11.3% swing. This is a classic confusion because operators don’t understand what “volatility” means. Just as psychologists who deal with “correlation” and p-values don’t know what these metrics mean. Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Correct the yuuge error. Hint: in Statistical Consequences of Fat Tail, but won’t tell you where.   Permalink 7:24 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 2) Point is: all we need to do is slow down the growth, CUT THE TAIL–we can’t eliminate it. Unfair to favor the UK but simpler to execute. The virus is already here so the idea is to let it expire. Our proposal of Jan 26. infections were <1% of today’s   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:01 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Trump woke up. He understood that the solution is acting NOW in reducing connectivity. 30 days travel ban from Europe is perfect. Let the states ban public transportation/close all gatherings for 30 days. Permalink 6:20 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb What psychologists like this dangerous fellow @vaughanbell call “evidence” is something that fails 55-60% of the time, and has a p~ .05. With a p~.05 no pilot/flight attendant would be alive. Permalink 6:10 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Someone shd ban psychologists from talking probability. New book counters idiots ignorant of Risk & Extreme Value Theory who talk about “evidence”. Soon in hard copy.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:49 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb CORONA TRICKS Friends pls add suggestions No fasting >20h No bread (can’t disinfect) unless you bake it yslf No sushi/raw meat No intense exercise. DL 80% max, at risk of detraining No public transp., no valet parking No Thaler/Nudge Unit No bars; if you must No nonalchlc bev Permalink 2:18 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ATTENTION Friends in the UK Beware the recommendations of the “Nudge Unit” and “evidence based” BS. They are more risk creators than mitigators. Learn from Korea, Singapore. In the US, Governor Cuomo is doing the right thing. This is the outline of my paper “nudge sinister”. Permalink 12:56 PM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The “nudge unit” & “evidence based” will wreck the U.K.   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Kluuuuuuelessly dangerous. The fellow @vaughanbell is a psychologist. Invokes “evidence based”: you need “evidence” of a crash before putting your seat belt on. The U.K. is doomed by government listening to “tenured” psychologists and nudge operators, like Thaler & other idiots.   Permalink 10:18 AM – 11 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Fucking IMBECILE, this was never presented as a “prediction” but as a warning about the fragility of SOME systems as they globalize. Permalink 1:22 PM – 10 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Lesson: Those who panicked early don’t have to panic today. Permalink 11:01 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Explaining “Black Swans” and their connection to Fat Tails in new technical book. Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Oh no!   Permalink 8:16 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those who need help reading Permalink 7:38 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@mikeharrisNY As this wise man @nntaleb has said #ES_F $SPX Permalink 6:51 AM – 9 Mar 2020

@paulportesi You just haven’t seen the other side of the distribution. @nntaleb This quote has always stuck with me. Its elegance and power. I never forgot it. Well… We are seeing the other side of the distribution. Permalink 7:13 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb How to Panic If You Must: discussion with @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 5:17 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BTW, from The Black Swan, in 2007. Permalink 1:21 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The great Cato-the-wise, Cato Sapiens, Cato Censorius, or (in Staten Island, Cato-no-nonsense) would be turning in his grave & characteristically seething with anger at the misuse of his name by that imbecilic institute. PS-As we explained,deaths *lag* infections because…time   Permalink 12:24 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@pierre_fraser Le #coronavirus et les erreurs journalistiques Dans un tweet dont seul @nntaleb a le secret, ce dernier à souligné que « L’Italie ne met pas à risque son économie pour combattre le virus, mais que […] »   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 12:02 PM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And of course the payment was not made. In spite of pressure by #RiadPonzi & the banksters. Good news.   Permalink 10:44 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@trishankkarthik More reasons not to venerate the cult of the youth:   Permalink 9:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb (No, nothing chemical. They are spraying Greek-Orthodox holy water.) Permalink 9:29 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The gym in Amioun (my ancestral village). Yet no virus in the area. Maybe the precautionary mindset in the genes (or, perhaps from the local olive oil). I guess I should go there. Permalink 9:20 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Solution. Joe Shipman tried (and failed) to ruin my weekend. (deleted previous owing to typos ) Permalink 8:06 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Footnote: I framed the Tennis Problem as if it were the COVFEFE riddle. Permalink 7:35 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Beware Journalistic Fallacies Italy is NOT “risking” the economy to fight the virus. It is lowering the risk for the economy by fighting the virus. If the coronavirus proved something, it is that the half-learned (journalist, psychologist) is the greatest danger for mankind. Permalink 7:15 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@Untiroalaire What pisses IYIs off is realizing how untaggable @nntaleb is, while their whole lives have revolved around labelling others. Aim for untaggability. Permalink 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2020

@koushikp Unfortunately despite all your efforts, many haven’t understood the concept of limiting factor. The capacity of the healthcare system isn’t unlimited. So the mortality rate isn’t a linear number as being spewed out across many IYIs across the internet. Permalink 6:41 PM – 7 Mar 2020

Tetlock, Propagandists, Lebanon, #IndiaEconomicConclave, Villages, Pinker, TENURE, J’ACCUSE, #RiadPonzi, Bret Weinstein, #Localism, GMOs, Arabists, Aramco, Lebanon

On the Statistical Differences between BinaryForecasts and Real World Payoffs (pdf)
The Beirut Banyan EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon (audio, Soundcloud)

@nntaleb BS Busting Showing how ~50 years of psychologists/decisiontheoristas claims that people “irrationally” “overestimate tails” are unrigorous; how being a “good forecaster” means nothing,etc. Some (e.g. Phil the rat @PTetlock) won’t like it Full version at   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:25 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Mediocre minds are outraged by small insults but passive, subdued, and silent in front of very large ones. ” – From Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 4:31 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) I had a bit of a lucky start to my day today seeing this thread. Nassim’s solution – though a solution in a tweet! – is a terrific lesson for calculus students as it is a fantastic use of both the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and also infinite series.   Permalink 3:27 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2:16 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb MATH PUZZLE DU JOUR. For my trip back from India. Permalink 3:09 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Modern dialects called “Arabic” do not descend from “Classical Arabic”, but both they and Fus7a share a common parent; Fus7a appears to be larely manufactured by a bunch of scholars. It is like mistaking your cousin for your grandfather.   Permalink 3:01 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This is, scientifically, fraud. I mean, really fraud.   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Kids get that Antifragile = Convexity. Social scientists can’t get it.   Permalink 11:18 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb He did not get skin in the game. It is filtering. So many people discuss ideas from books they haven’t read. — h/t @imleslahdin   Permalink 9:06 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@marco_m_alves Localism is not “peace on earth” as it creates much more “inconvenient’ day to day (corruption is more visible, disputes are direct, etc). But it’s the trade-off for avoiding system-wide collapse. Permalink 11:17 PM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Granted!   Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb My former student is correct to bring me into line. Propagandists are unconditional in their support, never nuanced, even with the most eggregious actions. And thet are eventually caught. Like now.   Permalink 8:45 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE EAST-MED PHILOLOGY “Spice”, μπαχαρικό (Bahariko) in Greek, بهارات (Bharat) in Levantine (not so much in Classical Ar), and baharat in Turkish originate from the old name for India: Bharat. Simply, the Med had no spices, only herbs. Permalink 8:37 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@yzilber Confusion can help learning   @nntaleb will like this study (2012) Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The way to do it.   Permalink 5:50 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb How to rescale distances on PCA maps for genetics. @WolframResearch Mathematica Code with verification Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will give it a second look.   Permalink 2:30 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@CCavafy “But most incomparable / of all, Antioch boasts that she’s a city / that’s been Greek since Ancient times” – C.P. Cavafy, “Greek Since Ancient Times”, translated by @DAMendelsohnNYC #poetry #cavafy #Greece Permalink 5:05 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:04 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam New paper “An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and its Applications”–“assumes only a high school mathematical and scientific background, so that it may be accessible to … anyone who is interested in systems and society”   Permalink 4:45 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #bureaucracy Permalink 8:50 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb These pseudo-analysts don’t get it. The majority of French & British voters had a yuuuugely favorable opinion about De Gaulle & Churchill respectively but still voted them out of office right after the war ended.   Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you hear “X is incompetent in spite of “elite” education”, you should interpret as “X is incompetent *because* of “elite” education” (Wittgenstein’s Ruler)   Permalink 4:16 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@Nvdwaa Rereading antifragile, my 1st encounter with @nntaleb after about 4years. Discovering depth I missed/ didn’t appreciate 1st time around. Amazing, life-changing stuff. Permalink 9:07 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie [correcting bad link] Exploring Markov chains and Martingales with kids – a project inspired by @gregeganSF @nntaleb and @octonion   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:50 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb His wife left him.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Bad way to visualize information, in the absence of scaling/size. If Rome/Papal States, Istanbul, Beirut were countries, They too… The web teaches people to become fools a la social scientists.   Permalink 5:01 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Brutal honesty and intolerance to BS brings new friends.   Permalink 4:24 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Decorators design to impress other decorators. In the MEA lounge, the electric plugs are out of reach, low on the ground, with the cover opening upwards ; impossible to plug the charger unless you lie on the floor. @skyteam please tell these idiots. #SkinintheGame Permalink 2:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@DavidGibbons “Every plane crash makes the next one less likely, every bank crash makes the next one more likely.” From Antifragile. Maybe my favorite @nntaleb quote – certainly a most important insight. We have built antifragile things but banking is not one of them. Permalink 1:12 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@LieraMarco Will he ever invite real people (i.e. plumbers, taxi drivers, accountants, etc.) to speak at the @wef in Davos? @nntaleb   Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@ETNOWlive Tell us what is the #Nifty return this decade in the comments section and get a chance to win a signed copy of the latest books by @MarkMobiusReal, @SadhguruJV, and @nntaleb. #IndiaEconomicConclave #IEC #quiz #IEC2019 Permalink 12:29 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Liars announce that they are saying the “truth”, without anyone asking them; shills claim they are promoting it. (Remember that “Pravda”, the Soviet organ, meant “truth”) Permalink 2:27 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Auditing Mathematica’s conventions Permalink 2:07 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Which explains why there cannot be such a thing as a global village: you build stronger bonds by meeting one person 5 times than by meeting 5 persons once. Permalink 1:06 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 2) Do you live in a village? Simple trick: how many familiar faces do you encounter daily in your surroundings? Permalink 12:14 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Karagoz/Karakoz in Lebanese   Permalink 12:04 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I never live in cities. Only villages. #localism   Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Another person I thought was revealing truths turns out to be a shill. Disgusting.   Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Turns out that what I called the “Karamata point” and the “Karamata Constant”, while obvious, didn’t have a name. Was told Kara-mata was “black eyed” in Ottoman Greek (Kara black in Turkish, Matis eyes in Turko-Greek) Permalink 5:23 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Presented 3 short papers. Turns out this result (and 2 others) are unknown. Permalink 5:18 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile The ‘slow earthquakes’ that we cannot feel may help protect against the devastating ones   Permalink 5:02 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (3/3) I learned these ideas thanks to @nntaleb and @octonion when they were discussing another famous “word” problem – the COVFEFE problem in 2017:   Permalink 3:31 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Eindhoven Workshop on Heavy Tails, with the usual suspects   Permalink 2:53 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@LaurentMartinez Sometimes you’re so obnoxious that I’m really considering muting you. But you so don’t give a f**** and are so uncompromising with (mostly) insufferable a-holes, that I have to admit it makes you a rare and valuable occurrence in this world. Permalink 1:47 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Pinker is not aware that he is promoting my own work: one of the books is plagiarism of the ##Incerto   Permalink 1:34 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Disagreement: #Lindy requires nonperishability but not all nonperishable is #lindy (nonperishable can be memoryless, with constant expected remaining life). Lindy = power law NonPerishable usually exponential. @ProfSteveFuller Here formalizing Lindy   Permalink 12:20 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Trying to define RIGOROUSLY what is and what is not Racism in PRINCIPIA, away from the verbalistic. Some surprising results. For comments Permalink 12:12 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The saying “lniqua numquam regna perpetuo manent” gives me hope. #Lindy #LebanonProtests #IraqiProtests, etc. Permalink 11:33 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb TENURE IS A TRAP After 30 y tenure in a pseudoscience w/citation ring (socialscience),pple can’t do anything in the real world Unskilled Labor! If Universities can’t take away your tenure, they can make your life miserable,as w/bigot @erasmuse. Like the brother in #Antifragile   Permalink 3:34 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “There is no more unmistakable sign of failure than that of a middle-aged man boasting of his successes in college.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:24 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Probability Proof Du Jour From the “Competitive Mathematics” FB page Permalink 2:04 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb More confusion: Mathematica has two techniques. Dot product for normalized vectors is same as covariance (hence 3 and 1 are same). Which method is used? Permalink 1:37 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Note that I blocked people who polluted the thread Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, some help. I have a question about conventions with PCA maps. Permalink 9:38 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@imleslahdin Why I’m excited about Technical Incerto. Understanding tails & “shadow moments” is crucial in when your algorithm relies on randomness, which is the BEST way we have for the hardest problems ever (NP-problems). I’m not even talking about big data & ML/AI (go to #RWRI for that).   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:10 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Learned that just as the Latin hard “c” becomes a soft affricate /t͡ʃ/ in Italian (Ciao), in S Mesopotamian dialect ك becomes تش Other shifts:ق hard g in Muslim (vs Jewish/Christian) Bagdadi (qeltu vs gilit group)& ء in Levant   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:53 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JT_ZLC I am suggesting a minor change to the front cover. Permalink 6:39 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Almost. The statistical version of the asymmetry: to confirm safety (trader didn’t blowup), n =1000 could be insufficient, to disconfirm safety, n=1 (trader blewup) is sufficient. My technical version of the asymmetry is by examining the Law of Large Numbers under fat tails.   Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JonathanShedler This is why “evidence based therapy” research always seems to involve treatments most people don’t want and most practitioners don’t practice. Research designed to impress journal reviewers and grant reviewers, not provide what patients need.   Permalink 3:22 PM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb J’ACCUSE Depositors in #LEBANON being stiffed! 1-Payment to Eurobond holders, NOT to depositors, & Not enough $$ for fuel imports 2-Depositors should OWN the banks since default! 3- #RiadPonzi is in denial, must be replaced/supervised Must suspend CEDRE! @Jad_Ghosn @EHSANI22 Permalink 7:51 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS, Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Technical Incerto, I) is done. My 7th book.   Should be available in hard copy first Q 2020 ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:46 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Med Again!   Permalink 4:18 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The eugenics crowd has been after since the when I showed the IQ thingy to be a fraud. You can tell at the reactions of a bunch of people.   Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Time to do my “told you so”. You guys are 1 year too late. @Clairlemon et al are nothing but a cover for eugenics.   Permalink 2:08 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The true left gets it. Democrats are getting Donaldo relected.   Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The nightmare   Permalink 10:14 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Thread on Ergodicity & @ole_b_peters work 1) If you optimize on multiperiod payoffs you avoid an absorbing state(0), because multiplicative. ANY such optimization will avoid absorption, not just LOG 2) Growth is a nice summary parameter. 3) Avoiding absorption does same. Permalink 6:48 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb [For those who don’t get it: the point is that some friends are worse than enemies] Permalink 4:54 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Friends, the M5 competition (@spyrosmakrid ) is about inventory prediction using ML or other. I suggested predicting maxima & minima on top of the usual. While extrema are useful in trading (“never cross a river that’s on ave 4f deep”), are they with inventories? Permalink 4:37 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@bmiloy Attending one of these exposes and clears a lot of BS from your thinking. You think you understood the Incerto, maybe even read it a few times, and then you attend and discover that you were missing something essential.   Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see: The hidden moments for a probability distribution. The Lucretius problem in #TheBlackSwan. (Turns out explicit result below is new.) Inspired by a mistake made by that idiot @WGoetzmann (who sees #TheBlackSwan as an “airport book”) . Permalink 3:03 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we gave in. Thanks to @Firsou we have a new #RWRI website   Permalink 1:25 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Clive James, RIP My notes on his book *Cultural Amnesia* Permalink 12:28 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb With friends like me you are guaranteed to never need a single enemy.   Permalink 10:27 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@aleksndr_r “A book review can be far more descriptive of the reviewer than the book itself.” —@nntaleb That you can learn as much about the source of information as its object is one of the most helpful principles I’ve come across recently. Permalink 9:39 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@CIELivestock1 Raffael Zanoli @UnivPoliMarche tells @iSAGE_H2020 #sheep industry mtg in #Wetherby of @nntaleb concept of #antifragility. Beyond #resilience, resulting from challenges in the environment making you more #robust to future challenges. Applies in #farming AND #marketing! Permalink 9:25 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi has reigned over 7 prime ministers, 4 presidents, a dozen finance ministers. If a single person is the perpetrator, it is him. He is the cancer. PS Riad, your “friends”’s smear campaign against me is equivalent to draining the Mediterranean with a teaspoon.   Permalink 6:57 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will be involved in this project with a formal status as “friend”. Hopefully expand it to “The Great East-Med (Graeco-Phoenician) BS-debunking School of Statistics”.   Permalink 4:45 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you encounter Pinker style careerism, remember the following. A book (or a work of scholarship) is something that is read 25 years after publication. What happens in the 25 years doesn’t count. The rest is a combination of noise, promotion, hype & resumé building. #Lindy Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@spyrosmakrid At the Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia we have founded the MOFC (The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center). Its purpose to Advance the Theory and Practice of Forecasting through competitions, conferences, publications and forecasting courses. @polemitis Permalink 1:59 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@BDufournet My wife and I had the same idea for Christmas for each other… @nntaleb’s masterpiece in the deluxe edition! Received today. A very nice present. Permalink 2:53 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb By free I mean morally free, free to be ethical   Permalink 1:58 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Yes! James Scott! Permalink 7:49 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you ask the facilitator of a Ponzi scheme to fix the Ponzi. Salame needs adult supervision.   Permalink 7:04 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 1) The judgment of the free is the only one that counts. The rest has some element of propaganda. 2) Very, very few people are free. 3) In general, the more prominent the person, the less free. The janitor is freer than the politician/CEO. 4) Purity requires freedom. Permalink 6:36 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@OrtolanMagazine This is insanely fucked up and people aren’t talking about it enough at all #crispr #china #gmo @nntaleb   Permalink 5:48 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Aside from BS Vendor extraordinaire @saPinker misrepresenting his own claims (see other posts), @DrCirillo & I have shown that interarrival times betw. large wars >100 y hence 1) his claim on post WW2 is statistical noise 2) he doesn’t get what statistical noise means #BSVendor   Permalink 5:12 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY of PROBABILITY Latest with @DrCirillo now on ArXiv   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:09 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:23 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What drinking with @EmanuelDerman looks like. And that’s before the drift into Spinoza. #OnlyinNewYork Permalink 4:18 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Wealth Inequality Among Snails   Permalink 1:26 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb FAT TONYISM More effective & less risky to improve food distribution than produce GMOs/GoldenRice (food costs=60-94% distrib/decay), but not to *scientism*merchants It costs millions to make train rides more pleasant, billions to make trains just a bit faster, but not to… Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@Prof_BearB I think someone proposed it.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 6:19 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon   via @YouTube Permalink 5:55 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The bullshitter still doesn’t get that BOTH claims have been debunked plus his shoddy statistical claims!   Permalink 1:54 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@DrCirillo Another sophistry. As usual. Given that what he claimed has been shown not to hold, he tries to change his claim ex post. Verba volant, scripta manent.   Permalink 1:32 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The end of Behavioral Economics   Permalink 12:06 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@sean_a_mcclure The general public gets swept up in the labeling of others as “anti-science” without understanding how science actually works. The willing and able are now stepping forward to call BS and set the record straight. I can’t think of a better service to society. #science   Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Statistics is a BS detector, not a BS generator.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit   Offshore books   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:13 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The president, cabinet, central bankers & bankers should be locked 24/7 in a war room/control center discussing options & working hard instead of engaging in courtesy meetings & focusing on shooting messengers.   Permalink 8:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@Firefly_fan Do you know Nassim that every smear campaign (the one that you suffer too) of Monsanto et al about Golden Rice is based (ENTIRELY) on a fallacy?   Table 1. “Misleading Summaries” subgroup “Absence of evidence as evidence of absence”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The author of the article on golden rice used by @sapinker was running a bank that blew up spectacularly; asking him for advice on tail risk is like putting a drunk driver (while drunk) to monitor road safety.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Sorry, error: I carelessly mistook @mona_harb_ (who tried -and failed— to dump on me) for @mona_fawaz. Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics I didbn’t even catch that this is via @quillette. of course. They know the best genes for humans to have AND know the best genes for plants to have eugenics quillette.   Permalink 4:37 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics Same language as last time, copied off a PR sheet I guess Soulless @sapinker Steven Pinker again smears those scientific doubt and reasonable concern for risk, uses the image of dying children to push his agenda   Permalink 4:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Localism implies opposition to US interventionism in world affairs (Syrian “rebels”, Saudi Barbaria-Yemen, etc.) It does not mean supporting interventionism by OTHER regimes. Most shills & low-intellect propagandists promote false dichotomies:”if not green, it must be pink”. Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Although activist @mona_fawaz has tried to dump on me (& got ran over),I MUST fight for her against the smear campaign by fascist propagandists that she’s a “foreign agent” #localists want to run their own lives, not be trapped into US-Iran-Israel-SA globalism #Skininthegame Permalink 3:59 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you ask what pple in #Lebanon want: basic amenities, jobs, education, clean water, transportation, power, etc. #Localism. Not geopolitics US-Iran-Israel-SaudiArabia. Fascists Khalek et al are shilling ag a technocratic government on grounds that it won’t globalize. Permalink 3:26 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RISK MANAGEMENT 101 we teach students: What @sapinker says is 1) wrong, 2) dangerous, 3) unrigorous & primitive *scientism*, with probability approaching 1.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:09 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam The idea that Golden Rice is a useful or necessary solution to nutrition problems does not recognize many alternatives and does not include an understanding of risk. This is a terribly misguided and unscientific frame of reference. @nntaleb   Permalink 7:50 PM – 1 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) Sharing some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas about probability distributions with kids   #math #mathchat Permalink 9:07 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @dan_azzi Permalink 7:37 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @JadChaaban is also a target of the smear campaign. I can hire someone to identify the source. After the Monsanto episode we got to know exactly how these are done. Also easy to sue people involved in the story in NY or LDN if they cover up for losses.   Permalink 6:55 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@digvijoy_c Someone wrote: “Dear Mr Taleb, I like your work but I feel compelled to give you a piece of advice. An intellectual like you would greatly gain in influence if he avoided using foul language.” Answer: “Fuck off.” From @nntaleb facebook page. Holiday season gold from Nassim. Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Also there are mechanisms to sue Global Finance magazine for giving awards to #RiadPonzi, give naive investors & savers a false feeling of security. Also we need @petelx60 to help us investigate how @LebAmUniv gave him an award (before his days). Permalink 5:50 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Signs both #RiadPonzi & Bankers Assoc. hired 2 PR firms to whitewash their image/smear critics including @dan_azz, @Nasser_Saidi. Not successful in the West (nobody is stupid) but # circulating videos in Lebanon. Some shills: @jassemajaka cc:@Jad_Ghosn #lebanonprotest Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb At the “meeting”, #RiadPonzi exhibited a lack of financial proficiency. He said “We issued CDs at 6%, they are now at 20%, so we have profits.” Imagine a CEO saying: we issued bonds/stocks, their value collapsed, we make yuuge profits if we bought them back 50% lower! Permalink 4:57 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RETROSPECTIVE BIGOTEERING 1) no law is retrospective 2) you cannot blame people of a violation of a moral rule (or law) if they could not be possibly aware of such a rule, if such rule came AFTER their actions. This is similar to the retrospective distortion in #TheBlackSwan. Permalink 4:35 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Scale analysis is not mine, elaborated by many many scientists. My contribution is the link between nonlinearity of response, scale, stability and, mostly, the probabilistic implications.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Permalink 5:37 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:08 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb An instance of retrospective bigoteering. Soon he will go after The Hamurabi code.   Permalink 3:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Most people scientists, academics, journalists & other BS vendorss write, talk about, & make claims about what they know. My specialty (Incerto & Technical Incerto) is to show what we don’t know. I stand current approaches to knowledge on their head.   Permalink 1:09 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Corrected. @birdxi1988 Permalink 12:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I am wrong Permalink 9:48 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb New picture. Need to change every decade. Permalink 8:54 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb They reposted the conversation without the edits.   Permalink 8:49 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see:The hidden moments for a probability distribution. What we called shadow mean in paper with @DrCirillo Permalink 7:25 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb By depositors I mean small depositors who put their life savings in the hands of #RiadPonzi Permalink 12:37 PM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I boycott @LOrientLeJour but Triangle have been extremely good at exposing the Ponzi scheme   Permalink 10:21 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@idrissaberkane Il y a des gens qui sont prêts à se créer six comptes pour troller @nntaleb mais vraiment twitter est devenu complètement fou Permalink 8:27 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Le @dr_l_alexandre est un charlatan. Aucune etude genetique sérieuse sur le sujet. Du bidon. Voir   Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is the classical question: “Where are the Customer’s Yachts?” Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A meeting in the Presidential Palace includes a representation of the banking sector. Where are the representatives of depositors? Where? Where? #LebanonProtests @Jad_Ghosn @dan_azzi Permalink 6:05 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb India Economic Conclave Dec 16-17   Permalink 2:57 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Immense gratitude for this country, its people, its system. Permalink 3:09 PM – 28 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – @nntaleb   Permalink 11:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@vtchakarova I use the occasion of #HappyThanksgiving to extent my special gratitude and big thanks to @nntaleb for giving me the unique chance to be part of his amazing #RWRI family this year and to grow immensely as a human and as a spirit! #SITG Permalink 10:39 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A mistake I made. My specialty is nonlinearity of responses. Complex systems have scaling issues from nonlinear responses.   Permalink 10:08 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The precautionary principle.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit   Offshore books   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I solved the quandary: I drink only American wine for Thanksgiving. Yet I want something Lebanese. Compromise: American wine made by Diaspora Lebanese. Permalink 7:59 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb As with IQ “regressions”, all it takes is one single point to change the story. #FooledbyRandomness   Permalink 6:04 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@BitcoinDu Find out more about bitcoin in Lebanon at   Permalink 5:35 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@beirut_banyan We’re joined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb for Episode 81 of The Beirut Banyan, and we discuss the October 17 Revolution and Lebanon’s modern history within the context of complex systems and local structures. Soundcloud:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lebanese Bitcoiners Show How to Talk About Crypto At Thanksgiving   via @coindesk Permalink 3:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The evolution of the reputation of #RiadPonzi   Permalink 3:18 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Never mess with other people’s sacred values. Never.   Permalink 2:15 PM – 27 Nov 2019

@B4DGETT This time of year, reminded of @nntaleb’s illustrative Thanksgiving turkey problem. Permalink 11:36 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@georges_ebel “never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep” illustrated @nntaleb Permalink 7:59 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Buy Lebanese products. They need your dollars. Find a store near you. Permalink 6:15 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@prakashperuvamb He is a role model precisely because of that . Speaks his mind, doesn’t mince word or tolerate crap, and what he says almost always makes abundant sense … Not ur politically correct ninny nanny type @nntaleb Permalink 5:27 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Chapter on Extreme Value Theory with some results Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@MarkMulvey My favorite @nntaleb quote, because most people treat math as a means to an end but he treats it like an artisan or musician: as an means to experience.   Permalink 7:14 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I cannot stand phonies, despicable people like @BretWeinstein who act on bad faith. DESPICABLE!   Permalink 2:43 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@dzviovich Wealth Gap is an emergent property of complex systems where agents interact. If system is not hijacked by rent seekers social mobility will follow as market preferences evolve. A very simple economy model will show these properties in action   Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:21 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fucking coward: I want to see you try to insult other religions as you did with Christianity & people holding Christian beliefs. Coward and phony! Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Attributing the #Iranprotests to fuel prices is similar to attributing the #LebaneseProtests to a tax on WhatsApp. #Verbalism Permalink 8:24 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@normonics Anyone want to place bets how long it takes @BretWeinstein to apologize for telling Christians to shut up about their beliefs?   Permalink 7:02 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Probability Discovery Du Jour: the invisible tail for a power law distribution doesn’t depent on its parametrization. A closed form derivation of thee “invisible tail”. Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@af_rd_ @BrankoMilan citing the Antifragile work by @nntaleb. Didn’t need more incentives. But it happens to be an interesting read indeed – ‘Antifragile states and global cities’   @ips_journal Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hezb now experiencing peacetime dilemmas: 1) cannot side with the protests without upsetting Iran 2) cannot use missiles against its own citizens, so militiary power is useless 3) cannot control hooligans harassing demonstrators 4) cannot afford to lose Shiite/Christian support   Permalink 12:36 PM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Bible in Lebanese/”NeoCannanite”.   Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 5:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain extreme value theory: The Fréchet is surprising simple to rederive. Permalink 4:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@gabrielacunac Brillantemente expresado por @nntaleb Permalink 3:52 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Summary of my point   Permalink 3:17 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The war on the Christian religion by @BretWeinstein shows ignorance of revelation of preferences, a repeat of what the charlatan Harris is spreading. Religion is NOT epistemic, but functional, precautionary, and #LINDY.   Permalink 3:00 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A lunatic… Dangerous… I thought the social planner was a closed problem.   Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Again it is one position to say: “I wish to be with people from my tribe”, it is another one to claim: “I don’t want these people around BECAUSE they are genetically inferior”. This @erasmuse is in that second category which is FAR more dangerous. Permalink 1:13 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Taleb is arrogant. Find out why. Attend #RWRI   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:01 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Taleb #ethics Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb More precise cross-correlations, bounds for transitivity in the Technical Incerto   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:40 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have scholarships open for Lebanese women, plus Iran, Bolivia, Catalonia, HK, etc. Permalink 4:37 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have 5 scholarships open for Lebanese women. Permalink 4:29 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI   Permalink 4:09 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dan Azzi is invited to get the RWRI certificate. Unlike Harvard degrees, it is not taught by professors, empty suits and bullshitters, but by people/real scientists with skin in the game.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 2) Contrary to what idiots-who-think-in-slogans spread at the tim, Proudhon was not against private property. His central idea is the domination of the state. He was fundamentally someone against the coercion of individuals.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:28 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 1) The first #localist is Proudhon. He was both anarchist & federalist, understood the link between distributed power and centralization. “Anarchy is order without power”. He got ran over by Marxists IYIs who fell for Marx’s nonsensical handwaving “scientific” approaches. Permalink 2:14 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Complex systems #Localism   Permalink 3:52 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Eric Rasmusen did produce all manner of personal abuse when my piece on IQ, heritability, etc. came out –I was wondering why, since his statistical comments were random. Turns out the fellow has indeed neo-nazi beliefs and tendencies.   Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The full Triangle paper is here   Permalink 10:31 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@paulportesi Debt and leverage have a @nntaleb dose-response sigmoid characteristics. Simply said, debt and leveraged is similar to drugs. It can be convex initially but will eventually reach an upper limit where it becomes concave an exponentially harmful. Permalink 10:09 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I expect plenty of factories to be built once #RiadPonzi and his policies are terminated. It took 3 years for Egypt and Turkey to build yuuuge reserves after their devaluation. I will make sure Riad Salameh is remembered as the MOST HARMFUL person in the history of #Lebanon. Permalink 6:46 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Some PR machinery is still trying to make people buy the argument that doubting GMOs is anti-science. In fact it is bullshit like this nonscientist journos such as @kittypurrzog that IS anti-science.   Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I am optimistic that once the Ponzi stops, we will have a yuuuuuge boom in #Lebanon. Permalink 6:06 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After my USJ talk on #RiadPonzi & Localism a few “economists” went on MTV to explain I was nonsensical & “arrogant”, it was not a Ponzi, Lebanon is different, etc. Triangle explains where it is a Ponzi: + Use new deposits to pay interest to existing depositors rather than invest! Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Civis Romanus sum The Republic of Koura in Lebanon (Capital Amioun) is closset to Cyprus & Crete.   Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our paper in the philosophy of probability, with @DrCirillo Permalink 4:48 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Note I refuse honors and rank & when introduced as a speaker, I allow only one piece of information: Uber ratings of >4.9 Excellent bullet points for my lecktshur on #Localism at LAU New York.   Permalink 2:38 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The best predictor of a collapse or blow-up => smooth returns” [part 2/2] / co-author @Firsou / inspired by @nntaleb’s #RWRI For more visit   Offshore books   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@DominikWeil Following his activities in Lebanon closely – if his ideas on #localism and #decentralization of power structures can be implemented there… – provides hope & tailwind for other localist movements around the globe #freecityfrankfurt   Permalink 7:58 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The only way one can short it without basis risk is if it lists on the NYSE AND has high volume. Plans to list in the US were cancelled.   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascists anf antilocalists are easily pushed to produce incoherence   Permalink 5:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My approach is not to convince the person but expose publicly his defects in reasoning.   Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascist @asadabukhalil wrote the only commentary on my talk on #Localism below The fascist denies local ancestral Lebanese poetry (Zajal) as a literary form. The unmistakable stamp of fascism all across. Particularly in the denial of the notion of scale.   Permalink 4:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Start tagging Arabists as “facists” nemesis of #Localism They COERCE you into an “identity” Destroy diversity & force a Medieval language w/purity Stamp out Mediterranean culture in Lebanon, & its character as cultural crossroad Example: antilocalist fascist @asadabukhalil Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@marciadabliu .not that these people would be interested but it seems @nntaleb has demolished the concept of IQ measuring let alone that intelligence could ever be inherited.   and yes, ooops some many ethical issues involved Permalink 3:15 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb People in Lebanon are not yet used to see a person entirely free who doesn’t give a fuck about his reputation. Permalink 2:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He made the mistake of pathologizing someone, which to me is a yuuuge intellectual violation. He will pay for it for the rest of his life as I find it egregious: that’s what the Soviets did with dissent. Never pathologize. Permalink 2:07 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is NOT squid ink. Just colored pasta. @adam_sajdak   Permalink 1:57 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or it is quite strange when someone keeps insulting you online, but not in person when they unexpectly meet you in the physical world? In other words talk is cheap online, but costly in real life. #Skininthegame   Permalink 2:12 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics We live in a novel age, no doubt But you have to be blind to believe it is “absolutely” novel Most of what is relevant to us is not new but very old indeed, easy to take for granted I suppose And, what should one “blindly follow”, Bret? The latest trend?   Permalink 1:13 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb From the remarks of the mob @RaniaKhalek is sending my way, there is an ELEMENTARY defect of reasoning both with her & the mob. One can be AGAINST US interventionism yet AGAINST repressive theocracy & AGAINST the massacre of young protesters in Iraq & Iran. Fehménin? Permalink 10:34 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Finishing a paper in philosophy of probability with @DrCirillo Permalink 10:15 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics .@TulsiGabbard expressed the need for local-first and regional-based agriculture model last night This is common sense from every perspective *except* for large scale factory-style industrial agriculture corporations and their lobby. Thank you, Tulsi. Permalink 8:47 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Outside an ancestral environment (or a small village), you cannot be both ethical and striving for people to like you. Permalink 8:42 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb OK, confirmed statistically. 100% of @RaniaKhalek posts are propaganda. There is NO information in the posts of the propagandists, since all you see is cherrypicked. Her “journalism” career is done.   Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@Boswall_Jacob For all depositors at #Lebanese banks, @Li_Haqqi and @nizarghanem have created a Facebook campaign to ensure that small and medium account holders don’t foot the bill of the #economic crisis. #لبنان It’s called #لن_ندفع_الثمن – find your bank here:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I removed from The Black Swan these comment because, at the time, I was stupid enough to listen to editors. “A White Swan not taking place is a Black Swan.” “You look at counterexamples for the usual, verification for the unusual”.   Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb MODERNISM Before the formation of the Greek Nation-State & Nordic historical manufacturing, Greek “identity” was not built ar. Classical Greece,but Greek Orthodoxy Greek Restaurants, now called “Olympic”, Acropolis, wd have been “Agios Nikolaos”, “Ag. Dimitrios”, “Aya Pelagia” Permalink 3:56 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@jbaksht I bought Incerto, can’t wait to reread all of them. Thanks @nntaleb   Permalink 3:55 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dabké Anatolian in origin. East Med imprint. Naples was Neapolis a Greek settlement.   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Life is boring if your online detractors freeze in terror when they run into you in the physical world. I saw a nondeadlifting stranger in a state of yuuge terror as I passed by his table, as if he ran into the Loch Ness Monster. Could be from photo the Arabo-fascist @joeyayoub   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:48 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I told an assembly of prominent farts in Lebanon, the local establishment: I don’t care about you f*cks, so long as your children are reading the INCERTO. And they are. Permalink 8:19 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon wanted power & glory. He liked flashy victories. Cambaceres who *wrote* the Napoleonic code liked influence. Napoleon lost everything but most of the world uses the Cambareces code dubbed “code Napoléon”. The world is run according to C. Gabish?   Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I respect those who seek influence; never those who seek power. Permalink 7:48 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@JamesMarsh79 i think this proves Nassim’s point about size. Permalink 7:33 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb Lebanon: From Ponzi to Localism   Permalink 7:24 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After defending her (benefits of the doubt), I am now nearly certain that @RaniaKhalek is an Iranian regime shill. The Regime is massacring hundreds of youths in Iraq & Iran. It is unpardonable. A shill is always UNCONDITIONALLY on one side of an issue.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@Zzeghedrane Localism taking place and shape strongly on the ground instead of in theory Cc: @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The foundation of the 1/n heuristic is that the law of large numbers cannot be invoked.   Permalink 5:12 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb In other words we get an exponential out of a power law. Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Interesting (and shocking) result. The “missing tail” for a power law follows a thin-tailed distribution. Permalink 2:22 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC MYSTERIOUS PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Seems that qariba قارب (small boat) doesn’t come from קָרוֹב قرب, proximity (to coast) but from the Byzantine Greek καράβι (pl.l καράβια) [same root as”crab”] Could the Byz. Greek originate from the Semitic קָרוֹב via Syrian Greek? Permalink 2:03 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb It feels the riots are more likely to succeed in Iran because: 1- Trump did not claim direct credit 2- Little news coverage 3- It feels like it is about time, I mean about time Permalink 12:35 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@HietanenPaavo More shenanigans by Finnish #Antifragile team w/ @LIHF_Living @STrosterud @Heinonmatti. Discussing hunting, Finnish localism and how more @nntaleb’s localism should be planted to Finnish political soil Permalink 11:25 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi These estimates were close. Got new information, the alpha coefficient is stable. Permalink 9:08 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@VqVoice Our new article is about making good software architecture for hearables, ergodicity, and just a little about Scorsese’s awesome film Casino (with special thanks to @nntaleb and #RWRI ) #technology #startup #softwaredevelopment   Permalink 7:51 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@BrendanJHammer Taking my daily @nntaleb – he nails it here on the proxy wars of couples. #BedOfProcrustes Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I detect that our movement is killing the old Libertarian and anarchist factions. #Localism   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@normonics   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb   Permalink 6:20 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Case closed   Permalink 7:49 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@RickKLN Rediscovered my faith years ago when you blocked me on FB. A Christian that didn’t discuss both sides, and could dismiss questions as BS changed my life. One of these years I will attend #RWRI and say thanks in person. Diplomacy is NOT more effective. BS busting is. Permalink 2:18 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A Sheikh in the Beqaa is saying “we can deliver Switzerland of the East” in 20 days. We do not need the central state.   Permalink 2:07 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese are still shocked by my “in your face” blunt, totally unapologetic, uncompromising, no-BS, “he’s incompetent”/”you’re an idiot” approach, esp when I address IYI “specialists” I threw someone w/unsollicited advice “diplomacy is more effective” out of my house. Permalink 2:06 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Very rough statistical estimatess. Wished the banks told us more. Good news for the small depositor Permalink 1:25 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Key part in PRINCIPIA is that the demarcation left-right has been redrawn by real science, along the lines STATIST-LOCALIST-MINARCHIST When I gave my tawk in Boulder, was told US most localists self-defined as “left”.Super-localist= Libertarian, etc. I prefer the IDIOT-NONIDIOT   Permalink 1:23 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I think the haircut can be milder 200k-1 mil, since the bulk is from accounts>1 mil Permalink 1:12 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb There is a problem w/: Short Aramco Long Oil contracts which maturity? Aramco =~ perpetual maturity The front contracts can be much, much more volatile than the back and decorrelate during squeezes. Discussed in one of the #RWRI   Permalink 11:39 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Solved half Permalink 4:29 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ (Statistical sleuthing) We know that +1% of accts in #Lebanon own 50% of total, $170 bil +accts <$200K represent $20 bil in total (rough numbers) Assume Pareto distr. How many accounts have > 200K, 1 mil, 10 mil ? What’s the weekly drain from 1000$ withdrawal per acct? Permalink 4:09 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@Firsou Anyone in Lebanon that advocates indebting the country in a similar manner should be treated with extreme suspicion.   Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I saw no such posters. My point is that the only way to satisfy Salafis is to give them their own communes. Unless you recommend “killing them all”.   Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism A crowd starts clapping from one single trigger. Revolutions (1848, #LebanonProtest, Iran, Iraq, Chile, H-K, Barcelona) spread spontaneously, “leaderless”, bec. complex systems work by 1 heuristic: once you find the trigger, you get power law behavior. Hard to reverse. Permalink 2:10 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He said “Tripolis is 10% Salafi, mostly in one neighborhood, & there is no alcohol in the whole place out of fear. You need to either increase the subdivisions or force the sectarians into a secular system that will turn them into terrorists out of resentment.” Permalink 1:50 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism at its best!!! Intoxicated by what is happening in Tripolis (Troblos) Tens of simultaneous ORDERLY discussion groups on constitutional, legal, economic matters Shocked to hear someone telling me “Tripoli shd not be one municipality ” because “minority rules”! Permalink 12:57 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Albert Kostanian proposing the equitable haircut proposed on his program: spare small accounts <200K, have a progressive haircut.×270/euqLRKy2IEHnjwzB.mp4?tag=10   Permalink 12:47 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@soonaorlater ‘Bitcoin removes [government] from the transaction…They’re trying to ‘ban bitcoin’ because they’re afraid of it. It’s important for us [the Lebanese] from now on to learn about crypto. Our collective intelligence is greater than the state’s’ – @nntaleb   Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A rioter was explaining the Silver Rule: “Mitl ma bit3omil btet3omal” Permalink 10:03 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Troblos (Tripolis) The epicenter of the Revolution. Permalink 9:56 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@rebeccacollard “From Tehran to Beirut, one revolution that won’t die” Lebanese chanting in support of Iran protests tonight. #LebanonProtests #IranProtests #iran #لبنان_ينتقض Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb II- Also as a bonus you “earn” the country risk since Aramco is located in the Shiite area with an oppressed minority who rightfully believe oil is theirs. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@PZalloua At z Lecture on Localism, Beirut USJ @nntaleb over-filled Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I want to be sued for the defamation of #RiadPonzi   Permalink 6:25 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Pareto 80/20 Estimated share of deposits. I suggest NO HAIRCUT except for acc >500K-1m & progressive beyond. Permalink 5:11 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GEORGIA as a model for #Lebanon MOST successful post-Soviet state. -Fired the entire police dept. Over 7 month w/o law enforcement, crime dropped by 60% (they claim) -Anti-corruption gov : most in their 20s, PM 32. 0 tolerance,$20 bribe=>7y jail #كلن_يعني_كلن @fadyasly Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This tweet puts to rest all possible theories of “Aounist tendencies” on my part. I am intransigent & INDEPENDENT. Always, everywhere, w/ no political loyalties even if I am buddies w/@Gebran_Bassil A judge has no friends. There are NO exceptions. #كلن_يعني_كلن #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Full paper (2nd revision) is here   Permalink 3:47 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Typo: (“incl Gold” shd be “excl. Gold”), but P/L (actual negative bleed) must me much > $5 bn. Ref: Toufic Gaspard’s note. Permalink 5:53 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My talk tomorrow. Riad’s Ponzi has been depleting reserves at a yuuuuge rate & borrowing to preserve a harmful “peg”. BDL has liabilities >$86 bil costing huge carry and assets <$40bil (incl. gold) earning <1%. On top of the fiscal deficit Riad’s Ponzi is costing>$5 bil/year   Permalink 5:32 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Revised the paper on the misfitness of binary predictions in real life (and the nonsense in many psychological claims) @spyrosmakrid Permalink 4:35 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our (non naive) precautionary principle page.   Permalink 2:27 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb You cannot possibly give Aoun the benefit of the doubt. He is, besides, talking to citizens as if they were his SUBJECTS, or a general’s subordinates.   Permalink 2:23 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@normonics There are moments where I almost feel pity on a guy like this But invariably they re-reveal themselves Steven Brainiac Pinker: “If you don’t recite my corporate propaganda you are a mindless killer” What a f**ing piece of trash.   Permalink 9:35 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Aoun seems to see the protests as some transitory annoyance –he appears to be irritated by the messenger. Permalink 7:34 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Optionality and the Intellectual Life: In Gratitude for the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI 12   Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Indeed I listened to his interview. That’s what he said. And, what is worse, what he meant. Permalink 6:09 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb President Michel Aoun You said that those who don’t like the government should emigrate. I am doing the exact reverse. I left 43 years ago. I am now in transit to Beirut, just to make sure YOU emigrate. #LebanonProtests cc:@Gebran_Bassil #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb FORMAL INVITATION. First come first served Permalink 1:27 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Anatomy of a state Ponzi. These are largely accumulated phantom interest earnings. Salameh killed the Lebanese economy. Scammer!!!   Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lesson from Riad Salameh’s incompetence: No central banker should ever try to print money in a foreign currency. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@otrasenda_AC Who else started to DL because reading @nntaleb ? i did   Permalink 11:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Owing to the responses, USJ will be using a different amphitheater >500 pple; a new announcement will be posted tomorrow. [Also note that your twitter response is not a reservation but a market assessment; it is still first come first served] Permalink 9:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@PaulSkallas Here’s some Libanius Permalink 7:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lghtak hiyyé l bt7ké ma3 immak. Msh lghét l sa7ra lb3idé. #Localism #Lma7alliyé Permalink 4:53 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please make sure to confirm attendance. Permalink 3:31 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My lecture, Friday 6 PM “From Ponzi to Localism” USJ School of Medicine Please confirm on Twitter so we can predict attendance. LANGUAGE: Lebanese Permalink 1:46 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Yes, formalized here see my paper on Antifragility in medicine   Permalink 7:22 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@Stefano_Peron kernel Mutual information in cluster matrix. Tnx to @financequant @nntaleb Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb WE MUST STOP SALAMEH NOW! #RiadPonzi Salameh MUST suspend payments on the Eurobond & declare a moratorium. This is outright theft from Lebanese citizens. Send to your friends! Will discuss further on Friday evening 6PM in Beirut #lebanonprotest #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@MauriceMassaad I work in a Leb co. that manufactures steel shelving solutions. 10 y ago we started exporting to difficult countries in Europe, Africa, ME. I personally spent 4 y trying to convince a French company to join us … with success! Now we are not able to deliver. Thank you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you are scared, it is impossible to hide it, no matter how hard you try. Permalink 4:19 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb CURRENT TWITTER ACTIVISM +#Localism & anti geopolitical BS vendors/Arabist fascism), & #lebanonprotest +#RiadPonzi +Pseudostatistics, esp. #Quilletbeciles/Neonazis/Eugenists w IQ claims & other #Alt-Right #Nordicists +#Nudge Finished: #Monsanto, #SaudiBarbaria, #Econometrics Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We don’t have to avoid imports, but the local industry became …just banks. I want #RiadPonzi to pay for it. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh’s Ponzi killed the Lebanese economy: small businesses, anything that could provide exports or mitigate imports has been crowded out. #RiadPonzi #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:50 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh is criminally incompetent. And, of course, a liar. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@OddmundGrotte Skin In The Game: Family/Owner-Operated Companies Perform Better?   Permalink 2:04 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, looking for a Madoff expert to figure out how they finally allocated the losses. #Ponzi #LebanonProtests #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:40 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Wisdom isn’t about understanding things (& people); it is knowing what they can do to you.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #wisdom Permalink 1:10 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Good news that Western newspapers are not reporting on #LebanonProtests. Why? Journos only get geopolitics & this is (still) a localist anti-geopolitical revolt. Trick by BS vendors (eg @tomfriedman) who understand nothing is make things geopolitical. (See #TheBlackSwan) Permalink 12:05 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@justinowings What’s lost in the climate debate? Pushing models and trusting experts _undermines_ the argument for caution. Alternative argument: Set the science aside. Lean on decision making under uncertainty—something everyone understands. “We have only one planet.” So don’t f**k it up.   Permalink 7:35 AM – 10 Nov 2019

@Lekapenos 1) I’m going to continue ridiculing the “muh steppe” quasi-Nordicists here: “The genetic basis of a number of physical features of the Yamnaya people were ascertained by the ancient DNA studies conducted by Haak et al. (2015), Wilde et al. (2014) and Mathieson et al. (2015): Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Nov 2019