Tag Archives: #RiadPonzi

#RWRI13, Connectivity, endcoronavirus.org, Contact Between People, virucide, Quillettists, #RiadPonzi, John Gray, Conferences, Sunstein, Superspreader, TRUE JUSTICE, Harari, Dawkins, Hanson, Thaler, George Steiner, Bureaucracy, Localism

@Pascallisch Same is true for animals/evolved cognitive systems. Most false positives for predator detection in foliage are without consequence. A single false negative can be fatal. Raw accuracy is not the point. Permalink 9:11 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If the word “panic” means “exaggerated” reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem. We have survived for zillion years thanks to “irrational” “panics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235663235573067777?s=20   Permalink 8:30 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Saying the coronavirus panic is dumb is dumb. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #WittgensteinsRuler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528   Permalink 7:56 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “If you see fraud, & you don’t say fraud, you are a fraud”. I provided a list of #RiadPonzi & the banker’s partisans. They also engaged in smearing those who were opposed to paying. https://twitter.com/Nasser_Saidi/status/1236253217010450432   Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 1) Predictions don’t count. It’s their payoff, what you do w/them (x is not f(x) ). Academics don’t get it. “Speculators are not paid in true or false, but in $) 2) Indeed, I don’t run the account. But I save the tweets as I am too lazy to have a notebook. Thanks, Cetin. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1236080589897375749   Permalink 4:19 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Impressive: he was self-taught in Semitic languages. Like our @HsenAndil “Only autodidacts are free” (#Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/21brbso7PR Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@HomegrownJoan @nntaleb Nurses need help! https://mobile.twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651   https://twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651   Permalink 3:05 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb We hit 400 volunteers! https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719   Permalink 2:53 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb New job https://twitter.com/Imparziale4/status/1236061954772475904   Permalink 2:52 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@paulportesi @nntaleb Wittgenstein ruler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528   Permalink 2:10 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Possibly the most erudite man in history. He taught himself Semitic Languages & translated Arabic proverbs into Latin. He knew Arabic, Greek, Latin, Hebrew, Syriac/Aramaic. He was to Montaigne (then considered a popularizing philistine) what Umberto Eco was to Fox News. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1235995793280163840   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU”>  pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU Permalink 11:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft… Permalink 8:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@dancarna Localism in Seattle: the CDC was taking too long with multiple fumbles getting testing kits to us so we made our own. Now we’re able to test 1000 people per day https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/with-seattle-on-the-front-lines-of-covid-19-epidemic-university-of-washington-lab-given-emergency-approval-to-test-for-coronavirus/   Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@normonics As this thing evolves, remember: we did not hedge. We told you what we saw and what was coming if we failed to take action. Most are too busy hedging to get their head out of the sand. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters New blog post. Probability weighting is one of those supposed cognitive biases that evaporate, as far as I can tell, when we think carefully about how to live within time. https://ergodicityeconomics.com/2020/03/06/probability-weighting-and-ergodicity-economics/   Permalink 6:26 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually we can show this identity is false: Negative log = log[abs[]]+ i \pi is not really a function, when we solve as 1 rather than 2 integrals we get a residual of \frac{\pi^3}{3}. Otherwise the left integral is something like -5/4 i zeta(3) “offset” by the second integral. Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM ! Mervyn King understand that city-states shd deal directly with one another, not via some bureaucrat in Brussels/DC Athens had a deal w/Sidon: full rights in both places (at least in Athens, where resident Sidonese were not metics but citizens) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-06/mervyn-king-city-of-london-should-align-with-new-york-not-eu?srnd=premium   Permalink 5:48 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Friends, Now that you understand multiplicative and systemic effects, you can get why we worry about GMOs –but not small idiosyncratic risks. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO”>  pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO Permalink 3:54 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@MKM_Abdul Precisely what @nntaleb wrote in Antifragile. https://twitter.com/annchildersmd/status/1235632957995372544   Permalink 2:16 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thanks for the help. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Another blue check mark who doesn’t understand 1) multiplicative processes, 2) risk, 3) other stuff. Yet spreading danger. Another one. https://twitter.com/PeterDiamandis/status/1235682503605669888   Permalink 1:58 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why it is SELFISH to not worry more about the virus than other sources of risk even if it does not affect you as much. Individual precaution does not scale to collective precaution. [Adding to PRINCIPIA POLITICA] pic.twitter.com/F7jRKAQ4dz Permalink 12:27 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Maestro Statistician Andrew Gelman going (as usual) after nudgeboy @CassSunstein [If you want to be scared, imagine him or concoctista “Rationality Richard” @Richard_Thaler doing some nudging from the White House if Biden is elected.] https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/03/03/coronavirus-panic-news/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm”>  pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail hedge: he explains the logic of how to make a portfolio ergodic by cutting the left tail. https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1235316588640759808   Permalink 9:27 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb News is misleading. They froze the assets of bank OWNERS & managers. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grrrrrrrreat news! The Cascade has started. Next in line: #RiadPonzi (Fakkét l masb7a!) https://reut.rs/2Tq9FTC   Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/dMOcjFwhmJ Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Those who mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence (like these morons) end up leaving the gene pool, except that here they endanger others. https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1235247099756892162   Permalink 10:39 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) Ricardo got the point but missed on its analytical consequences. pic.twitter.com/CLPZG4aOQS Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Its time to take action to stop COVID-19. Join our volunteers working at local and regional levels to help contain the virus. Email necsivolunteers@gmail.com with your state and county information to join the team @nntaleb Permalink 8:05 PM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And… when you finish one volume, start a new one. Technical Incerto Volume 2 pic.twitter.com/4tTlvPpwJ0 Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Add this smearer @Berti74 pic.twitter.com/KABktMe6hg Permalink 7:22 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Neo-nazis, like Quillettists, are statistically incompetent, parroting buzzwords like “PCA” Even if correct (it’s not),PCAs, 1)reflect recent endogamy, 2)distances need to be corrected. Entropy: If pple LOOK the same, they ARE the same. See my paper: https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn”>  pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn Permalink 6:28 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This music must be coming from deep Anatolia/East Med, before these languages came to the region. https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285?s=21   https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Yaneer explains the payoff from “panic”. If you reduce the connectivity between people the rate drops & we are nonlineaely out of the woods. Hint: the flu season typically starts & ends with the school year. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1234638804725751814   Permalink 5:00 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Ladino version of Jews from Turkey https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=234&v=uSOrl7l9lOg&feature=emb_logo   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU”>  pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU Permalink 1:06 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few Turks are aware of the fact that they are almost entirely converted Greeks/Armenians/Georgians/Levantines. “Languages travel, genes stay” https://twitter.com/C_Westling/status/1234581871142588421?s=20   Permalink 12:52 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Greek version: Ο ΓΙΑΤΡΟΣ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8_fyNHO7q0   Permalink 12:44 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Levantine versions of “Aman Doktor” سكابا يا دموع العين https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoQ53H3wyKU   https://twitter.com/AlfredHarb/status/1234564732423680000?s=20   Permalink 12:09 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb EAST MED In spite of what Nordic supremacists have led people to believe, Greeks, Turks, Western Armenians, Anatolian Kurds, & Northern Syrians are the same people. They have the same soul. https://twitter.com/DIAS/status/1234256857360949249   Permalink 8:23 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@imleslahdin The way @nntaleb writes is the best model in the world. Not just the content, the whole open process. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234439613642682373   Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Came home to find hard copies of the new book. Beautiful. This is print on demand, which costs $20 per copy to print (highest quality paper). The volume version should costs $5-7 to print & will be available in 2 months. Meanwhile PDF is free: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ”>  pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ Permalink 3:25 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb John Gray is the real deal. https://twitter.com/davidsarac/status/1234138190048423937   Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@DIAS In Istanbul, some friends were singing an old Turkish song “Aman Doktor” in a restaurant. A Greek man walks up to the table and starts singing the same song in Greek (Greeks and Turks share many old folk songs) At the end The 2 men showed great respect to eachother wow pic.twitter.com/w2cWaliQyf Permalink 3:19 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb AVOID PSEUDO-EMPIRICISM Just realized that the point about @CassSunstein style of pseudo-empiricism (common to journos/psychologists of risk and “rationality”) is explicit in Skin In the Game, nontechnical! pic.twitter.com/eiUIldB24M Permalink 1:50 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BLOCKING & FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION A twitter feed is NOT an open public forum. It is private. It is like your daily newspaper or your personal classroom. You are free to let in only qualified students. Otherwise noise will overtake your life. Permalink 12:01 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The wisest thing is to preemptively block every journalist — particularly UK and “science” ones. https://twitter.com/CalJamieson/status/1234202323834068993   Permalink 11:55 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Conferences are bad not because of how many people one connects with there, but because they move germs across the planet, de-localize the problem. https://twitter.com/TurgesonFerd/status/1234198348615147521?s=20   Permalink 11:34 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One heuristic. Whenever you hear “evidence based”, expect probabilistic fraud. https://twitter.com/AlfonsoSpencer9/status/1234042331030007808   Permalink 10:57 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Blocked the fellow (among others who dangerously advocate “no worry”). Higher fatality rate can actually lower the risk of the disease, make tails thinner. Why? Simply because dead people tend to not take planes, trains subways, & cruises. Even in California. pic.twitter.com/z32uuRvbzg Permalink 10:18 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@perfexcellent When I see this, the more I wish people would follow @nntaleb’s advice that these bodies should be created with a non-negotiable expiry date. Permalink 8:14 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@KaMiller1 Bottom of page 2 above the comic: @nntaleb provides greatest footnote in the history of footnotes. You made my morning, Sir! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234093143089434624   Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@TulsiGabbard .@realDonaldTrump Remember this? https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/375759718251503616   Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HfkamAmsAl Permalink 4:32 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those still unable to understand that death from multiplicative processes such as corona are NOT to be compared to those from thin-tailed sources, see Chapter 3 of new book: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ”>  pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is not the base rate fucking fallacy. Please stop using names given by ignorant psychologists to statistical phenomena. Permalink 6:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb There is a marked-to-market problem. Low incidence = low testing. Only places that mark to market properly seem to be Singapore and Bella Italia. pic.twitter.com/seSrdFy3X8 Permalink 5:31 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The initial discussion was how intelligent people (in the real sense, that is, people who get stuff) don’t correlate much with those with high IQ scores (IQ scores select for idiots who are good test takers/prone to becoming bureaucrats and slaves of states & large corps). Permalink 4:43 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Why, among public figures, good looking people (actors) are not so intelligent, and intelligent people are not so good looking? (Posed by @joe_shipman) pic.twitter.com/idK1xOfeH2 Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam We are looking for volunteers for the coronavirus outbreak response. Please DM me if you are willing to help. In order for this to be stopped we need to work together to make it happen. Permalink 3:25 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The entire idea of the INCERTO is that uncertainty makes some decisions muuuuuuch easier. If I am “uncertain” about the skills of the pilot, I take another plane. If I am “uncertain” about an investment, I say no, etc. But Nudgeboy @CassSunstein suggests opposite. pic.twitter.com/I3jCFqSV6o Permalink 2:17 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The logical problem with IYIS: we don’t know the risk HENCE let’s ignore it. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1233757564921356290?s=20   Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Most places with “low incidence” are turning out to be places of *low testing*. Includes, of course, the United States. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1233784596241747968   Permalink 9:58 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The rate of infection drops when fewer people are in enclosed spaces. Singapore has too much AC in the summer. https://twitter.com/Kaschat1/status/1233771178357075968   Permalink 7:11 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@ggreenwald This Boston Globe column says Sanders’ attempt to win the Massachusetts primary is “very disrespectful” to Sen. Warren, a form of “major humiliation,” one that reveals an ugly character flaw of “unbridled ambition” that is “exceedingly off-putting” https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-goes-campaign-kill/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr”>  pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@kemaunders Thank you to the brilliant team (@nntaleb, Raphael Douady, @financequant, Alicia Bentham Williams, @normonics, @trishankkarthik, Arié H, and Tom Messina) and my fellow participants who made #RWRI 13 an experience that will touch many parts of life. My immediate to do list… Permalink 2:29 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@seandaken THANK YOU Alicia Bentham-Williams @nntaleb Raphael Douady @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @ariehaziza @vergilden and my fellow participants for an incredible week. Found my people. See you at a future #RWRI #RWRI13 #incerto #oneplusminusalpha #cutthetail Permalink 5:06 PM – 28 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Please use # #RWRI not just #RWRI13 https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232668480153014272   Permalink 9:20 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 How simple rules build complex structures with Mathematica code by ⁦@financequant ⁩ Genome cannot explain the conplexity of life pic.twitter.com/QIMxe8e3aX Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:10 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The hidden mean: you know that real cases are (at best) equal or higher than reported. Reported = lower bound, not estimate. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1232676620667891715   Permalink 6:44 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/leominkus/status/1232419862879842306   Permalink 4:40 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@harshacoach People think of government as an abstract theological entity, not as a collection of individuals without skin in the game @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Tra l’altro, in questo thread qui sotto, la traduzione in italiano di alcuni documenti degli autori sopracitati: https://t.co/NGd4ef8Yc7   https://twitter.com/dellannaluca/status/1231140691020894208?s=21   Permalink 4:23 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@flaneurizer @nntaleb does not say directly, but China has same relationship with Hong Kong, milking it for the last 20 years. IYIs shout about China wanting to “crush” Hong Kong, but that’s BS. Just a mafioso maybe overplaying their hand. https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232325743536984064   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Atheists are just modern versions of religious fundamentalists: they both take religion too literally.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/nachooliveras/status/1232383749616230401   Permalink 4:29 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@RealJamesWoods Thank you, Doug. This is a brilliant assessment of our current situation with the #Wuhan #CoronaVirus. More importantly, as I understand it, taking strong, unpopular steps to implement strategic intervention before the pandemic is catastrophic in America is absolutely critical. https://twitter.com/ComplexSE/status/1232402538189787137   Permalink 12:58 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@bakingVC Forecasters don’t get rich by being right „on average“. Basically, that’s why there are no rich forecasters. #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The exact discussion at #RWRI about people who don’t get that risk taking is good, under some conditions; and how to defeat sophistry like the one bt this ignorant fellow @realYuriOrlov that “no systemic multiplicative tail exposures” is not “take no risks” at all. https://twitter.com/realYuriOrlov/status/1232375927511769088   Permalink 10:59 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@normonics .@nntaleb currently discussing how social media is a return to a more natural communication pattern, a return from central media gatekeepers #RWRI #RWRI13 #lindy https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1188444355922661376   Permalink 8:53 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@JacobGnther1 “I live in a cave. There are no corners in my house…” #RWRI @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/8vE0Ler9gB Permalink 6:27 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@NachoOliveras Day 2 of #rwri13 just taking off! 1/n pic.twitter.com/bfWtYdYAgx Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@ErikByronTaylor Learned yesterday why guy in the slide is NOT irrational. (Took liberty of updating slide to read Corona instead of Ebola to make it more timely #photoshop) #RWRI #rwri13 pic.twitter.com/LT8TeKIc89 Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@seandaken Having a blast at #RWRI in NYC with @nntaleb and ~65 others pic.twitter.com/py5sUuIRyi Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/docroger/status/1231951997298970624   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/DocRoger/status/1231951997298970624   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump @ErikSchatzker #Negotiations #TheArtoftheDeal #hitfirst pic.twitter.com/FOK8ZLvwwj Permalink 6:07 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I mean infections. Permalink 6:46 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The carpenter fallacy. To understand large gains/losses in a Casino roulette, you don’t ask a carpenter, but a probabilist. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1231768196371435520?s=20   Permalink 6:39 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Doctors and the #WHO don’t understand multiplication. They understand medicine (& addition), not multiplication. When we posted this on Jan 26, there were ~1,000 casualties. Today ~79,000. Unless we overreact, at that rate, in 1 month , can reach yuuuge numbers @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 6:38 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam It is time to stop thinking about pandemic response as a medical effort. Physicians are not trained to evaluate economic impacts, to impose actions for cities, and to engage in the social behavioral change that is needed. Permalink 6:29 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia. Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/brucefenton/status/1231753275252318210?s=20   Permalink 5:53 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 5:24 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Permalink 5:23 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Finally ideas on religions as non comparable items are starting to spread. pic.twitter.com/U93Bze7JbC Permalink 4:56 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1231740183206338565?s=20   Permalink 4:47 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU, increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity. https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1231587280449654784   Permalink 4:34 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@Renegade_Masta @save_the_tweet #please Fucking idiot. Worst case =total destruction. Best case = inconvenience + being wrong. You take inconvenience every time. And yes I live in the area. There is no such thing as overreaction. @DellAnnaLuca @nntaleb @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@bantofu “We need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all these things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock” Antifragile-@nntaleb Permalink 8:26 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Be predictable in granting rewards; unpredictable in delivering punishment. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@ntarunkumar The really important persons in your life are the ones you shouldn’t have to impress. (A personal twist to something I read in @nntaleb ‘s insight on ethics – Bed of Procrustes – and dog ownership). Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb (Each in a different field: philosophers, historians, pol scientists) Erratum: Paul Veyne not Jules. Add: Jane Jacobs, James Scott, E Le Roy Ladurie, etc. Permalink 5:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Answer to who are the (recent) thinkers I don’t find BS vendors? In random order Saul Kripke, Derek Parfit, Elinor Ostrom, Fernand Braudel, Jules Veyne, Tom Holland, Peter Frankopan, Jean-François Revel, Michael Okeshott, Isaac Levi, Russ Roberts, Jon Elster, many,many, many! https://twitter.com/AndyPeyton/status/1231488319671934979   Permalink 4:44 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb From Volume 2 of the technical Incerto: Probabilility, Risk, and Convexity. Vol 1 maps to The Black Swan, Vol 2 maps to Antifragile, Vol 3 to Fooled by Randomness & Big Data [so far] https://twitter.com/JosephNWalker/status/1231514700120252416   Permalink 4:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@JosephNWalker Taleb’s problem with Knightian uncertainty is that there’s no such thing as non-Knightian uncertainty: pic.twitter.com/wtvTsIUcDk Permalink 1:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@alexandersquats https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1078655258354741248?s=19   Permalink 3:27 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb TRUE JUSTICE If you really want diversity & protection of minorities suffering workplace prejudice, stop chromo-categorizing — that fake unempirical business. Hire unattractive people. They are the one suffering the most, & deprived of attention. Permalink 3:25 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mistakes: ɕeeb shd be bayy el ɕαrd should be l ɕαrd Permalink 12:14 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb MED PHILOLOGY DUJOUR The Nicene creed in Lebanese… except that these Maronites have the Filoque “L jeeye mn el ɕeeb w el ɕeben” = “qui ex Patre Filioque procedit” Brilliant except for the heresy! https://twitter.com/henrizaq/status/1231296337494396928   Permalink 11:55 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb L’invidia ha gli occhi e la fortuna è cieca Permalink 8:49 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Gross inconsiderate errors: 1) Ghosn didn’t order an espresso in Arabic, but in the Lebanese Semitic dialect, 3/4 of a language away from Arabic. 2) Beirut was not the “Paris of the Middle East” but the Paris of the Mediterranean. https://www.wsj.com/articles/carlos-ghosns-new-life-in-exile-11582347707?shareToken=st2e30ccfa64584bf696da2e691ecca6d7   via @WSJ Permalink 8:45 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Envy is impossible to conceal. It manipulates you; like a tattoo on your forehead, visible to others but not to you. Permalink 8:40 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A common mistranslation: \sigma is not necessarily volatility. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1231227077711552514   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl”>  pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl Permalink 7:46 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Only the hyperparanoid survive.” #RWRI https://twitter.com/richard49step/status/1231234461976735744   Permalink 7:12 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 7) Results are pouring in! For the Pareto IV (The semi Bell Shaped one-tailed power law. pic.twitter.com/ltRkllCOXR Permalink 3:22 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Taking a class on rationality and probability by @sapinker Pinker is equivalent to +Being taught foie gras preparation by a lifetime vegan. +Being taught random matrix theory by one of the Kardashians. https://twitter.com/FischerKing64/status/1230966699907674117   Permalink 1:40 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@EdmondShami That’s why you shouldn’t trust communists (since they call each other “rafiq”) The Bed of Procrustes, NNT pic.twitter.com/SyT1Bfpo4Z Permalink 1:11 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hilarious! https://twitter.com/INVESTMENTSHULK/status/1230872613297229824   Permalink 12:48 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@Extrachelle 1 essential secret of a good cook: Generosity. Stinginess destroys recipes. Permalink 9:58 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters It’s because reality unfolds over time, not over a statistical ensemble. @nntaleb just did a nice illustration of that, using Kelly-type arguments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1229799216312180739   Permalink 9:50 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters Speaking of insurance, here’s how Rothschild and Stiglitz modeled it in 1976. I think @mikeandallie would agree that Berkshire Hathaway would be bankrupt if they were to apply this theory to their insurance business. pic.twitter.com/tbNEzM2ibq Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 6) Predictably, for fat tails it is worrrrrrrrrrrrrrrse!!! pic.twitter.com/mDQgooVx7i Permalink 8:11 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Voila. Sans abonnement. pic.twitter.com/PJJlnm1Qjo Permalink 7:35 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 5) In continuous time: the lower bound for a real fair game, not a Mickey Mouse™ bet like this ignorant Thaler. pic.twitter.com/0xed0n6UQL Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La photo est horrrrrrrible. https://w.lpnt.fr/2363621t   #Postillon via @LePoint Permalink 3:53 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Je descends dans un hôtel à Paris où habitait André Malraux. Pas de plaque. Même les gens de l’hôtel ne le savent pas. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1230818293734346756   Permalink 3:47 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam They let people off Diamond Princess, put them on planes and busses and sent them home. Amazing they thought a 14 day group “quarantine” would help. Instead it spread infection in the group. Shows they don’t understand how infections work. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-two-australians-evacuated-from-diamond-princess-test-positive-in-darwin   https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1230681676617076736   Permalink 6:46 PM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) In other words a single bet per lifetime is linear, more than one bet requires compounding. Nudgeboy Richard Thaler must be stopped from messing with things he does not understand. Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Back in New York after 7 weeks absence. pic.twitter.com/hefmQDpmJy Permalink 5:39 PM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The problem with Bloomberg is not his competence; he has the charisma of a plate of reheated-but-lukewarm unsalted fried cauliflowers. Permalink 9:12 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It does not mean: 1) Take investment advice from anyone who doesn’t have to work for a living. 2) Never take advice from those who work (note the “has to”). I am glad many rigor vigilantes are correcting errors by commentators. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1230035639070056448   Permalink 8:04 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I have been watching reschedulings for 38 years, since the 1982 LatAm debacle. (Remember I specialize in financial crises). No airline had to worry. @dan_azzi should not say these things without some empirical rigor. Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@Lucas_Erik_ Via twitter and his books, @nntaleb has shown me more truth in a month than all my 4 years of college classes combined. He teaches you how to think about something in a way where you can apply it to a different subject entirely. Teaching how to fish instead of giving a fish. https://twitter.com/gnpm72/status/1229539283293409280   Permalink 1:59 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb @beirut_banyan Actually, 1. Permalink 1:06 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@mcsorley_pete “Of what use is a philosopher who doesn’t hurt anybody’s feelings?” —Diogenes of Sinope pic.twitter.com/xh5h2y5qve Permalink 9:29 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) The Mathematica file. pic.twitter.com/WjrSbCvule Permalink 8:07 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb How you *will* eventually go bust on a fair bet: Explaining the Kelly/Shannon/Thorp result & beyond. (& why nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_Thaler has a serious, serious problem, aside from his other mistakes ). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91IOwS0gf3g&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 8:05 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) My heuristic: if a podcast has had someone like Sam Harris @SamHarrisOrg on, I avoid both listening to & participating in, it. It may be imperfect but the trick cleans up scientism, BS, & absence of scholarship. My allergic reactions to BS have been exacerbated with time. Permalink 7:09 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb As I said above in the thread, IYI robin @robinhanson will not infect himself. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1229768012598796288?s=20   Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I did not podcast in 2019; will do 1 in 2020 w/ @EconTalker on “Uninformative (less politely, “BS”) metrics in social science” (stat under fat tails, correlation BS, IQ, etc.), largely bec. of long private 2-way conversations. Will cover the new tech book. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The reason:filtering. I don’t take chances; I block quickly. The minute I smell sloppy reasoning. https://twitter.com/ptbrodie/status/1229489047921287168   Permalink 4:13 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Academics are usually all talk: @robinhanson is a bullshitter; don’t expect him to go infect himself. https://twitter.com/0neof1/status/1229596442098053120?s=20   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 1 million depositors (erratum) Permalink 3:55 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. False claims on my behalf, @dan_azzi My point is quantitative: 12 Bil to pay next 2 y. If you don’t believe in miracles, you will certainly default on a depleted treasury! Meanwhile $4 bil to be paid for rich bondholders satisfy >1 billion depositors (# TK) https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1228983243657162752   Permalink 1:44 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@jaszo “Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star.” -@nntaleb Permalink 1:07 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@kantynho00 Thread by @nntaleb: Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality,exity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead o https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1229066756012085253.html   Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb East Med Philology du Jour: Today is the day of Theodorus of Tyre. Did you ever wonder why the names Atallah and Atiyeh (as in Michael Atiyah) are only used by Levantine Christians)? Theodorus = gift of God. Atiyeh is the Canaanite version of Atallah Note also: Dorothy. pic.twitter.com/3ArgpYsZrt Permalink 4:18 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3ashu natrin? Ken lézeém n3mol rescheduling bi kénun 2bl l Eurobond l sebe2. 3ajjlo ya shabeb 2abl ma tkhrab aktar. https://twitter.com/neematfrem/status/1229045586739027973   Permalink 6:50 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Discovering Permalink 5:35 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Can you explain, @Fontainebleau ? https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1228819678543347712   Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21   https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1229060502984306689   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21   https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Same with bailouts. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1229070350308257792   Permalink 3:26 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari is a quack. https://twitter.com/GonzaQG/status/1229161201000730626?s=20   Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari’s public activities now occupy a staff of twelve. Mine: staff of 0. Why? Simply, I don’t do speaking and interviewing, etc. Except when very bored. pic.twitter.com/3fOdMwjOAI Permalink 1:44 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Indeed my dimenionality/teleology argument converges to the Hayekian argument. https://twitter.com/luciansusanu/status/1229092373176692737?s=20   Permalink 9:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “If something looks irrational —and has been so for a long time —odds are you have a wrong definition of rationality.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) Human societies are multiscale: the properties of single individuals *do not* predict those of groups, something he never got with the selfish gene BS. Permalink 7:36 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality, complexity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead of time *what* to select for. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1228943686953664512   Permalink 7:35 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) For instance Seneca’s fortune was 300M sesterces, which translates into 75 M dinarii… It takes yeaaaaars to clean up these details. pic.twitter.com/1kNHASqgej Permalink 6:17 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Also used the wrong currency (“dirarii”), etc. Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The INCERTO has been continuously modified for (so far minor) errors. 1) ANTIFRAGILE:”Roman engineers forced to sleep under the bridge” was qualified as apocryphal, but architects in Asia Minor were still accountable. 2) Some refs to psych. progressively removed. Permalink 5:25 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Which is my way of announcing that Skin in the Game is out in paperback. https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/0425284646/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1227931283898150912   Permalink 2:27 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Belittling a powerful asshole = iconoclast. Belittling a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 2:23 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Ignore the bullshitters and note: 1) Bond defaults are routine, in 99.9 % of cases creditors help work out a solution. Ignore lurid non-collaborative cases by scaremongers (Argentina). 2) Gold belongs to the BDL, not to the state, which is shielded. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 11:47 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mr. Hanson, I have called people “imbecile” for vastly more intelligent comments. Permalink 8:35 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Before bloviating on the consequences of a default, ask international bonds legal specialists like @camilleasleiman rather than bullshit artists. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Eurobond payment must NOT be made 1) Insult to depositors (lack of symmetry).Phoenicians 2700 y. ago had more sophisticated rules of risk sharing! 2) Harms OTHER bondholders 3) Default is inevitable; fail EARLY, come CLEAN Those advocating payment are shills or LUNATICS Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hanson, @robinhanson, you don’t seem to get what skin in the game means (nor do you have a faintest clue what betting is, another story). Skin in the game REQUIRES you to infect yourself NOW! https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228701801949671425?s=20   Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La bureaucratie est un outil pour couper certaines personnes des conséquences de leur actions. [Meilleure traduction] https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1228703994127712259   Permalink 7:38 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The best argument in favor of skin in the game: it can help us get rid of dangerous lunatics & riskblind IYIs before they harm the rest of mankind. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228400896507367424   Permalink 7:23 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The dynamics above show how nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it: + You MUST turn down most favorable odds because 1) life is not a one period model, and 2) they lead to total bankruptcy. + Mental accounting is an optimal strategy, not “irrational”. Permalink 6:42 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Fixed the colors in the graph pic.twitter.com/yn4BV6hOSS Permalink 4:53 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb What Samuelson didn’t get is that the Kelly point is the UPPER bound not necessarily the target –just as Shannon’s capacity. One can simply cut one’s portfolio in half and satisfy his criticism. https://twitter.com/migueldva/status/1228464540867682304?s=20   Permalink 5:14 PM – 14 Feb 2020

@PavelMordasov “It takes some humanity to feel sympathy for those less fortunate than us; but it takes honor to avoid envying those who are much luckier.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/kGuWIWOSBu Permalink 8:23 AM – 13 Feb 2020

@DrMichaelBonner ‘The Last Empire of Iran’ is now in print! https://twitter.com/gorgiaspress/status/1227608394497974274   Permalink 8:49 AM – 12 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Trust those who are greedy for money a thousand times more than those who are greedy for credentials.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:34 AM – 10 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sometimes you run in daily life into people who heap abuse on the internet: they cower. Absence of #skininthegame is a problem. https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1226523804148600834   Permalink 8:07 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Maybe is also a lack of #skininthegame on social networks… If you act as an asshole in real live you might get a punch in the face pic.twitter.com/NCICnykixp Permalink 7:10 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Maestro A. Al-Jallad @Safaitic offering me his book in a café in Columbus OH. pic.twitter.com/V52ewrEmGK Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matters are those who never had real world experience.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:14 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #Localism (The fellow is making me aware of my own aphorisms) https://twitter.com/talebwisdom/status/1226110049967394816   Permalink 6:15 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb We need more data but that’s the way to do it: estimations from reliable subsamples. https://twitter.com/aledeniz/status/1226103425508790275   Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Getting out of control https://twitter.com/srutunda/status/1226111375426170881   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@imleslahdin Left-Socialism-Brutalism Right-Traditionalist-Classical Polarizing. https://twitter.com/world_classico/status/1225942717374586882   Permalink 12:16 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@RonPaul Did you catch our interview with Democratic Party presidential candidate @TulsiGabbard? Find out what she thinks about her own party shutting her out of the debates: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk   Permalink 3:42 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Behavioral economics can be summarized as follows: “humans are idiots”. My message: “Maybe, but behavioral economists are most certainly idiots”. Permalink 3:03 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You guys are not getting the joke: I like NJ. It is just that I love NY and there are incompatibilities… Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@RonPaul The Only Person That Trump Should Fear On The Debate Stage Is Tulsi Gabbard Watch the whole show with @tulsigabbard here: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD”>  pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD Permalink 11:10 AM – 7 Feb 2020

Tetlock, Propagandists, Lebanon, #IndiaEconomicConclave, Villages, Pinker, TENURE, J’ACCUSE, #RiadPonzi, Bret Weinstein, #Localism, GMOs, Arabists, Aramco, Lebanon

On the Statistical Differences between BinaryForecasts and Real World Payoffs (pdf)
The Beirut Banyan EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon (audio, Soundcloud)

@nntaleb BS Busting Showing how ~50 years of psychologists/decisiontheoristas claims that people “irrationally” “overestimate tails” are unrigorous; how being a “good forecaster” means nothing,etc. Some (e.g. Phil the rat @PTetlock) won’t like it Full version at https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/STDMM5E1fT”>  pic.twitter.com/STDMM5E1fT Permalink 6:25 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Mediocre minds are outraged by small insults but passive, subdued, and silent in front of very large ones. ” – From Bed of Procrustes. Permalink 4:31 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) I had a bit of a lucky start to my day today seeing this thread. Nassim’s solution – though a solution in a tweet! – is a terrific lesson for calculus students as it is a fantastic use of both the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and also infinite series. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1207621312006574081   Permalink 3:27 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/LeBjHvSS0y Permalink 3:18 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com/8LkjS7O7oZ Permalink 2:16 AM – 19 Dec 2019

@nntaleb MATH PUZZLE DU JOUR. For my trip back from India. pic.twitter.com/s9StRGpDZ3 Permalink 3:09 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Modern dialects called “Arabic” do not descend from “Classical Arabic”, but both they and Fus7a share a common parent; Fus7a appears to be larely manufactured by a bunch of scholars. It is like mistaking your cousin for your grandfather. https://twitter.com/PhDniX/status/1207431607369502721   Permalink 3:01 PM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb This is, scientifically, fraud. I mean, really fraud. https://twitter.com/WDavidHill/status/1206518159873851394   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Kids get that Antifragile = Convexity. Social scientists can’t get it. https://twitter.com/MamanLunettes/status/1207378173106806786   Permalink 11:18 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@nntaleb He did not get skin in the game. It is filtering. So many people discuss ideas from books they haven’t read. — h/t @imleslahdin https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1207319434957918209   Permalink 9:06 AM – 18 Dec 2019

@marco_m_alves Localism is not “peace on earth” as it creates much more “inconvenient’ day to day (corruption is more visible, disputes are direct, etc). But it’s the trade-off for avoiding system-wide collapse. Permalink 11:17 PM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Granted! https://twitter.com/Jed_Trott/status/1207011658884960258   Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb My former student is correct to bring me into line. Propagandists are unconditional in their support, never nuanced, even with the most eggregious actions. And thet are eventually caught. Like now. https://twitter.com/Mo_Hrmz/status/1206972693737857024   Permalink 8:45 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SPECULATIVE EAST-MED PHILOLOGY “Spice”, μπαχαρικό (Bahariko) in Greek, بهارات (Bharat) in Levantine (not so much in Classical Ar), and baharat in Turkish originate from the old name for India: Bharat. Simply, the Med had no spices, only herbs. Permalink 8:37 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@yzilber Confusion can help learning https://news.nd.edu/news/confusion-can-be-beneficial-for-learning-study/   @nntaleb will like this study (2012) Permalink 6:35 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The way to do it. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/12/15/lebanon-tax-strike-wedeman-pkg-vpx.cnn?fbclid=IwAR1kyuv87g2pke9Y17GSvXyAdRINMPBKAKzmqxoO2stzjUi8dyoxS5iHIyA   Permalink 5:50 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb How to rescale distances on PCA maps for genetics. @WolframResearch Mathematica Code with verification pic.twitter.com/cVfRKS0Y9Y Permalink 3:46 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will give it a second look. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1206713742030860288   Permalink 2:30 AM – 17 Dec 2019

@CCavafy “But most incomparable / of all, Antioch boasts that she’s a city / that’s been Greek since Ancient times” – C.P. Cavafy, “Greek Since Ancient Times”, translated by @DAMendelsohnNYC #poetry #cavafy #Greece pic.twitter.com/8kuwmOY8ww Permalink 5:05 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 5:04 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam New paper “An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and its Applications”–“assumes only a high school mathematical and scientific background, so that it may be accessible to … anyone who is interested in systems and society” https://necsi.edu/an-introduction-to-complex-systems-science-and-its-applications   Permalink 4:45 AM – 16 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #bureaucracy Permalink 8:50 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb These pseudo-analysts don’t get it. The majority of French & British voters had a yuuuugely favorable opinion about De Gaulle & Churchill respectively but still voted them out of office right after the war ended. https://twitter.com/mashabani/status/1203316176740327427   Permalink 4:20 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you hear “X is incompetent in spite of “elite” education”, you should interpret as “X is incompetent *because* of “elite” education” (Wittgenstein’s Ruler) https://twitter.com/rorysutherland/status/1206181699765309441   Permalink 4:16 AM – 15 Dec 2019

@Nvdwaa Rereading antifragile, my 1st encounter with @nntaleb after about 4years. Discovering depth I missed/ didn’t appreciate 1st time around. Amazing, life-changing stuff. pic.twitter.com/BVzeRvhXSC Permalink 9:07 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie [correcting bad link] Exploring Markov chains and Martingales with kids – a project inspired by @gregeganSF @nntaleb and @octonion https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/12/14/33355/   #math #mathchat Permalink 6:50 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb His wife left him. https://twitter.com/geoffdporter/status/1205848006089695233   Permalink 5:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Bad way to visualize information, in the absence of scaling/size. If Rome/Papal States, Istanbul, Beirut were countries, They too… The web teaches people to become fools a la social scientists. https://twitter.com/arcgreek/status/1205500038706802691   Permalink 5:01 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Brutal honesty and intolerance to BS brings new friends. https://twitter.com/paulportesi/status/1205616820612292608   Permalink 4:24 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Decorators design to impress other decorators. In the MEA lounge, the electric plugs are out of reach, low on the ground, with the cover opening upwards ; impossible to plug the charger unless you lie on the floor. @skyteam please tell these idiots. #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/mBlfV1TyZo Permalink 2:57 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@DavidGibbons “Every plane crash makes the next one less likely, every bank crash makes the next one more likely.” From Antifragile. Maybe my favorite @nntaleb quote – certainly a most important insight. We have built antifragile things but banking is not one of them. Permalink 1:12 AM – 14 Dec 2019

@LieraMarco Will he ever invite real people (i.e. plumbers, taxi drivers, accountants, etc.) to speak at the @wef in Davos? @nntaleb https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1205099302676291585   Permalink 4:55 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@ETNOWlive Tell us what is the #Nifty return this decade in the comments section and get a chance to win a signed copy of the latest books by @MarkMobiusReal, @SadhguruJV, and @nntaleb. #IndiaEconomicConclave #IEC #quiz #IEC2019 pic.twitter.com/AOKkXnSqpn Permalink 12:29 AM – 12 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Liars announce that they are saying the “truth”, without anyone asking them; shills claim they are promoting it. (Remember that “Pravda”, the Soviet organ, meant “truth”) pic.twitter.com/irpjNgra7g Permalink 2:27 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Auditing Mathematica’s conventions pic.twitter.com/5Qfdh2olcg Permalink 2:07 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Which explains why there cannot be such a thing as a global village: you build stronger bonds by meeting one person 5 times than by meeting 5 persons once. pic.twitter.com/7zO4MQwyUl Permalink 1:06 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 2) Do you live in a village? Simple trick: how many familiar faces do you encounter daily in your surroundings? Permalink 12:14 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Karagoz/Karakoz in Lebanese https://twitter.com/KBBlack_/status/1204834468822949888   Permalink 12:04 PM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I never live in cities. Only villages. #localism https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1204675247879929856   Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Another person I thought was revealing truths turns out to be a shill. Disgusting. https://twitter.com/veravanhorne/status/1204771551511547905   Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Turns out that what I called the “Karamata point” and the “Karamata Constant”, while obvious, didn’t have a name. Was told Kara-mata was “black eyed” in Ottoman Greek (Kara black in Turkish, Matis eyes in Turko-Greek) pic.twitter.com/Y0s26R7It0 Permalink 5:23 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Presented 3 short papers. Turns out this result (and 2 others) are unknown. pic.twitter.com/KrZOzlxfWr Permalink 5:18 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile The ‘slow earthquakes’ that we cannot feel may help protect against the devastating ones https://phys.org/news/2019-12-earthquakes-devastating.html   Permalink 5:02 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (3/3) I learned these ideas thanks to @nntaleb and @octonion when they were discussing another famous “word” problem – the COVFEFE problem in 2017: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/the-most-interesting-piece-of-math-i-learned-in-2017-the-covfefe-problem/   Permalink 3:31 PM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Eindhoven Workshop on Heavy Tails, with the usual suspects https://www.eurandom.tue.nl/event/workshop-heavy-tails-2/   Permalink 2:53 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@LaurentMartinez Sometimes you’re so obnoxious that I’m really considering muting you. But you so don’t give a f**** and are so uncompromising with (mostly) insufferable a-holes, that I have to admit it makes you a rare and valuable occurrence in this world. Permalink 1:47 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Pinker is not aware that he is promoting my own work: one of the books is plagiarism of the ##Incerto https://fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1204127384817033216   Permalink 1:34 AM – 10 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Disagreement: #Lindy requires nonperishability but not all nonperishable is #lindy (nonperishable can be memoryless, with constant expected remaining life). Lindy = power law NonPerishable usually exponential. @ProfSteveFuller Here formalizing Lindy https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1146214203574968322?s=20   https://twitter.com/ProfSteveFuller/status/1199595280565440512   Permalink 12:20 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Trying to define RIGOROUSLY what is and what is not Racism in PRINCIPIA, away from the verbalistic. Some surprising results. For comments pic.twitter.com/qTNU63hPW5 Permalink 12:12 PM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The saying “lniqua numquam regna perpetuo manent” gives me hope. #Lindy #LebanonProtests #IraqiProtests, etc. Permalink 11:33 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@nntaleb TENURE IS A TRAP After 30 y tenure in a pseudoscience w/citation ring (socialscience),pple can’t do anything in the real world Unskilled Labor! If Universities can’t take away your tenure, they can make your life miserable,as w/bigot @erasmuse. Like the brother in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1198329665078857729   Permalink 3:34 AM – 9 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “There is no more unmistakable sign of failure than that of a middle-aged man boasting of his successes in college.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:24 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Probability Proof Du Jour From the “Competitive Mathematics” FB page pic.twitter.com/gqI3BPTE7q Permalink 2:04 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb More confusion: Mathematica has two techniques. Dot product for normalized vectors is same as covariance (hence 3 and 1 are same). Which method is used? pic.twitter.com/R9ZulSWR8C Permalink 1:37 PM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Note that I blocked people who polluted the thread Permalink 9:58 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, some help. I have a question about conventions with PCA maps. pic.twitter.com/8KxAbkkDwa Permalink 9:38 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@imleslahdin Why I’m excited about Technical Incerto. Understanding tails & “shadow moments” is crucial in when your algorithm relies on randomness, which is the BEST way we have for the hardest problems ever (NP-problems). I’m not even talking about big data & ML/AI (go to #RWRI for that). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1203294669117022208   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kEA0VxgxRf”>  pic.twitter.com/kEA0VxgxRf Permalink 9:10 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Learned that just as the Latin hard “c” becomes a soft affricate /t͡ʃ/ in Italian (Ciao), in S Mesopotamian dialect ك becomes تش Other shifts:ق hard g in Muslim (vs Jewish/Christian) Bagdadi (qeltu vs gilit group)& ء in Levant https://www.instagram.com/tv/B5pvFhjHbZL/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/DR0BlbACVt”>  pic.twitter.com/DR0BlbACVt Permalink 6:53 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JT_ZLC I am suggesting a minor change to the front cover. pic.twitter.com/93hzaGcN7g Permalink 6:39 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Almost. The statistical version of the asymmetry: to confirm safety (trader didn’t blowup), n =1000 could be insufficient, to disconfirm safety, n=1 (trader blewup) is sufficient. My technical version of the asymmetry is by examining the Law of Large Numbers under fat tails. https://twitter.com/sunnyrekhi/status/1203505476958220290   Permalink 4:11 AM – 8 Dec 2019

@JonathanShedler This is why “evidence based therapy” research always seems to involve treatments most people don’t want and most practitioners don’t practice. Research designed to impress journal reviewers and grant reviewers, not provide what patients need. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1203128659806171138   Permalink 3:22 PM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb J’ACCUSE Depositors in #LEBANON being stiffed! 1-Payment to Eurobond holders, NOT to depositors, & Not enough $$ for fuel imports 2-Depositors should OWN the banks since default! 3- #RiadPonzi is in denial, must be replaced/supervised Must suspend CEDRE! @Jad_Ghosn @EHSANI22 Permalink 7:51 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS, Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Technical Incerto, I) is done. My 7th book. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   Should be available in hard copy first Q 2020 ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/J8cioGrEw8″>  pic.twitter.com/J8cioGrEw8 Permalink 4:46 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Make Lebanon Med Again! https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1203280222642221057   Permalink 4:18 AM – 7 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The eugenics crowd has been after since the when I showed the IQ thingy to be a fraud. You can tell at the reactions of a bunch of people. https://link.medium.com/ehxNGI2Zc2   Permalink 2:15 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Time to do my “told you so”. You guys are 1 year too late. @Clairlemon et al are nothing but a cover for eugenics. https://twitter.com/rvawonk/status/1202719842605903872   Permalink 2:08 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The true left gets it. Democrats are getting Donaldo relected. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1202977556292624386   Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The nightmare https://twitter.com/brianabeythomas/status/1202964879067336709   Permalink 10:14 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Thread on Ergodicity & @ole_b_peters work 1) If you optimize on multiperiod payoffs you avoid an absorbing state(0), because multiplicative. ANY such optimization will avoid absorption, not just LOG 2) Growth is a nice summary parameter. 3) Avoiding absorption does same. Permalink 6:48 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb [For those who don’t get it: the point is that some friends are worse than enemies] Permalink 4:54 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@nntaleb DISCUSSION Friends, the M5 competition (@spyrosmakrid ) is about inventory prediction using ML or other. I suggested predicting maxima & minima on top of the usual. While extrema are useful in trading (“never cross a river that’s on ave 4f deep”), are they with inventories? Permalink 4:37 AM – 6 Dec 2019

@bmiloy Attending one of these exposes and clears a lot of BS from your thinking. You think you understood the Incerto, maybe even read it a few times, and then you attend and discover that you were missing something essential. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1202700539886260246   Permalink 4:33 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see: The hidden moments for a probability distribution. The Lucretius problem in #TheBlackSwan. (Turns out explicit result below is new.) Inspired by a mistake made by that idiot @WGoetzmann (who sees #TheBlackSwan as an “airport book”) . pic.twitter.com/IRU9nlgkNa Permalink 3:03 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we gave in. Thanks to @Firsou we have a new #RWRI website http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 1:25 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Clive James, RIP My notes on his book *Cultural Amnesia* pic.twitter.com/Z8dcT5RjSy Permalink 12:28 PM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb With friends like me you are guaranteed to never need a single enemy. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1202574156971331585   Permalink 10:27 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@aleksndr_r “A book review can be far more descriptive of the reviewer than the book itself.” —@nntaleb That you can learn as much about the source of information as its object is one of the most helpful principles I’ve come across recently. Permalink 9:39 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@CIELivestock1 Raffael Zanoli @UnivPoliMarche tells @iSAGE_H2020 #sheep industry mtg in #Wetherby of @nntaleb concept of #antifragility. Beyond #resilience, resulting from challenges in the environment making you more #robust to future challenges. Applies in #farming AND #marketing! pic.twitter.com/HuSPXRRO3v Permalink 9:25 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi has reigned over 7 prime ministers, 4 presidents, a dozen finance ministers. If a single person is the perpetrator, it is him. He is the cancer. PS Riad, your “friends”’s smear campaign against me is equivalent to draining the Mediterranean with a teaspoon. https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1202594727444520966   Permalink 6:57 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb I will be involved in this project with a formal status as “friend”. Hopefully expand it to “The Great East-Med (Graeco-Phoenician) BS-debunking School of Statistics”. https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1202527792027574273   Permalink 4:45 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you encounter Pinker style careerism, remember the following. A book (or a work of scholarship) is something that is read 25 years after publication. What happens in the 25 years doesn’t count. The rest is a combination of noise, promotion, hype & resumé building. #Lindy Permalink 4:18 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@spyrosmakrid At the Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia we have founded the MOFC (The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center). Its purpose to Advance the Theory and Practice of Forecasting through competitions, conferences, publications and forecasting courses. @polemitis pic.twitter.com/zBGMuGK8D2 Permalink 1:59 AM – 5 Dec 2019

@BDufournet My wife and I had the same idea for Christmas for each other… @nntaleb’s masterpiece in the deluxe edition! Received today. A very nice present. pic.twitter.com/44yvVZFWcU Permalink 2:53 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb By free I mean morally free, free to be ethical https://medium.com/incerto/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb   Permalink 1:58 PM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Yes! James Scott! Permalink 7:49 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb When you ask the facilitator of a Ponzi scheme to fix the Ponzi. Salame needs adult supervision. https://twitter.com/adibchristian/status/1202233307729018880   Permalink 7:04 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb 1) The judgment of the free is the only one that counts. The rest has some element of propaganda. 2) Very, very few people are free. 3) In general, the more prominent the person, the less free. The janitor is freer than the politician/CEO. 4) Purity requires freedom. Permalink 6:36 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@OrtolanMagazine This is insanely fucked up and people aren’t talking about it enough at all #crispr #china #gmo @nntaleb https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/dec/04/china-gene-edited-baby-experiment-may-have-created-unintended-mutations   Permalink 5:48 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Aside from BS Vendor extraordinaire @saPinker misrepresenting his own claims (see other posts), @DrCirillo & I have shown that interarrival times betw. large wars >100 y hence 1) his claim on post WW2 is statistical noise 2) he doesn’t get what statistical noise means #BSVendor https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 5:12 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY of PROBABILITY Latest with @DrCirillo now on ArXiv https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.00277.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/84RBISEmiz”>  pic.twitter.com/84RBISEmiz Permalink 4:09 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@TalebWisdom “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:23 AM – 4 Dec 2019

@nntaleb What drinking with @EmanuelDerman looks like. And that’s before the drift into Spinoza. #OnlyinNewYork pic.twitter.com/bvLLy9P5fh Permalink 4:18 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Wealth Inequality Among Snails https://www.improbable.com/2019/10/02/wealth-inequality-among-snails/   Permalink 1:26 PM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb FAT TONYISM More effective & less risky to improve food distribution than produce GMOs/GoldenRice (food costs=60-94% distrib/decay), but not to *scientism*merchants It costs millions to make train rides more pleasant, billions to make trains just a bit faster, but not to… Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@Prof_BearB I think someone proposed it. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iE4zEmoon1″>  pic.twitter.com/iE4zEmoon1 Permalink 6:19 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon https://youtu.be/sGcyA0yB4nY   via @YouTube Permalink 5:55 AM – 3 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The bullshitter still doesn’t get that BOTH claims have been debunked plus his shoddy statistical claims! https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 1:54 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@DrCirillo Another sophistry. As usual. Given that what he claimed has been shown not to hold, he tries to change his claim ex post. Verba volant, scripta manent. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201603375365836804   Permalink 1:32 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The end of Behavioral Economics https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1201547183079772160   Permalink 12:06 PM – 2 Dec 2019

@sean_a_mcclure The general public gets swept up in the labeling of others as “anti-science” without understanding how science actually works. The willing and able are now stepping forward to call BS and set the record straight. I can’t think of a better service to society. #science https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1201458485961117698   Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “Statistics is a BS detector, not a BS generator.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books https://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Yii889CrUQ”>  pic.twitter.com/Yii889CrUQ Permalink 9:13 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The president, cabinet, central bankers & bankers should be locked 24/7 in a war room/control center discussing options & working hard instead of engaging in courtesy meetings & focusing on shooting messengers. http://www.dailystar.com.lb//News/Lebanon-News/2019/Dec-02/496664-aoun-calls-for-prosecution-of-those-who-spread-bad-publicity-about-national-currency.ashx#.XeU7R5tCwxM.twitter   Permalink 8:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@Firefly_fan Do you know Nassim that every smear campaign (the one that you suffer too) of Monsanto et al about Golden Rice is based (ENTIRELY) on a fallacy? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6760066/pdf/12992_2019_Article_495.pdf   Table 1. “Misleading Summaries” subgroup “Absence of evidence as evidence of absence”. Permalink 7:04 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb The author of the article on golden rice used by @sapinker was running a bank that blew up spectacularly; asking him for advice on tail risk is like putting a drunk driver (while drunk) to monitor road safety. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1201504177286983685?s=20   Permalink 6:48 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Sorry, error: I carelessly mistook @mona_harb_ (who tried -and failed— to dump on me) for @mona_fawaz. Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics I didbn’t even catch that this is via @quillette. of course. They know the best genes for humans to have AND know the best genes for plants to have eugenics quillette. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   Permalink 4:37 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@normonics Same language as last time, copied off a PR sheet I guess Soulless @sapinker Steven Pinker again smears those scientific doubt and reasonable concern for risk, uses the image of dying children to push his agenda https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   Permalink 4:29 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb #Localism implies opposition to US interventionism in world affairs (Syrian “rebels”, Saudi Barbaria-Yemen, etc.) It does not mean supporting interventionism by OTHER regimes. Most shills & low-intellect propagandists promote false dichotomies:”if not green, it must be pink”. Permalink 4:22 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Although activist @mona_fawaz has tried to dump on me (& got ran over),I MUST fight for her against the smear campaign by fascist propagandists that she’s a “foreign agent” #localists want to run their own lives, not be trapped into US-Iran-Israel-SA globalism #Skininthegame Permalink 3:59 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb If you ask what pple in #Lebanon want: basic amenities, jobs, education, clean water, transportation, power, etc. #Localism. Not geopolitics US-Iran-Israel-SaudiArabia. Fascists Khalek et al are shilling ag a technocratic government on grounds that it won’t globalize. Permalink 3:26 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RISK MANAGEMENT 101 we teach students: What @sapinker says is 1) wrong, 2) dangerous, 3) unrigorous & primitive *scientism*, with probability approaching 1. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1201345723981160448   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/gb53Lao2u3″>  pic.twitter.com/gb53Lao2u3 Permalink 3:09 AM – 2 Dec 2019

@yaneerbaryam The idea that Golden Rice is a useful or necessary solution to nutrition problems does not recognize many alternatives and does not include an understanding of risk. This is a terribly misguided and unscientific frame of reference. @nntaleb https://necsi.edu/precautionary-principle   Permalink 7:50 PM – 1 Dec 2019

@mikeandallie (1/2) Sharing some of @nntaleb ‘s ideas about probability distributions with kids https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/12/01/sharing-some-of-nassim-talebs-ideas-about-probability-distributions-with-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 9:07 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @dan_azzi Permalink 7:37 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb @JadChaaban is also a target of the smear campaign. I can hire someone to identify the source. After the Monsanto episode we got to know exactly how these are done. Also easy to sue people involved in the story in NY or LDN if they cover up for losses. https://twitter.com/JadChaaban/status/1200863656843661313?s=20   Permalink 6:55 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@digvijoy_c Someone wrote: “Dear Mr Taleb, I like your work but I feel compelled to give you a piece of advice. An intellectual like you would greatly gain in influence if he avoided using foul language.” Answer: “Fuck off.” From @nntaleb facebook page. Holiday season gold from Nassim. Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Also there are mechanisms to sue Global Finance magazine for giving awards to #RiadPonzi, give naive investors & savers a false feeling of security. Also we need @petelx60 to help us investigate how @LebAmUniv gave him an award (before his days). Permalink 5:50 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Signs both #RiadPonzi & Bankers Assoc. hired 2 PR firms to whitewash their image/smear critics including @dan_azz, @Nasser_Saidi. Not successful in the West (nobody is stupid) but # circulating videos in Lebanon. Some shills: @jassemajaka cc:@Jad_Ghosn #lebanonprotest Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb At the “meeting”, #RiadPonzi exhibited a lack of financial proficiency. He said “We issued CDs at 6%, they are now at 20%, so we have profits.” Imagine a CEO saying: we issued bonds/stocks, their value collapsed, we make yuuge profits if we bought them back 50% lower! Permalink 4:57 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb RETROSPECTIVE BIGOTEERING 1) no law is retrospective 2) you cannot blame people of a violation of a moral rule (or law) if they could not be possibly aware of such a rule, if such rule came AFTER their actions. This is similar to the retrospective distortion in #TheBlackSwan. Permalink 4:35 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb Scale analysis is not mine, elaborated by many many scientists. My contribution is the link between nonlinearity of response, scale, stability and, mostly, the probabilistic implications. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1201115448529563648   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/MHDcn8tLex Permalink 5:37 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:08 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb An instance of retrospective bigoteering. Soon he will go after The Hamurabi code. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/inertialobservr/status/1200642160648835072   Permalink 3:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Most people scientists, academics, journalists & other BS vendorss write, talk about, & make claims about what they know. My specialty (Incerto & Technical Incerto) is to show what we don’t know. I stand current approaches to knowledge on their head. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1200798073884233728   Permalink 1:09 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Corrected. @birdxi1988 pic.twitter.com/HJ96ZBuUvX Permalink 12:04 PM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I am wrong Permalink 9:48 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb New picture. Need to change every decade. Permalink 8:54 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb They reposted the conversation without the edits. https://twitter.com/beirut_banyan/status/1200038885125951490   Permalink 8:49 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb What you see and what you don’t see:The hidden moments for a probability distribution. What we called shadow mean in paper with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/rnRBU9YwKn Permalink 7:25 AM – 30 Nov 2019

@nntaleb By depositors I mean small depositors who put their life savings in the hands of #RiadPonzi Permalink 12:37 PM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I boycott @LOrientLeJour but Triangle have been extremely good at exposing the Ponzi scheme https://twitter.com/think_triangle/status/1200334111820460032   Permalink 10:21 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@idrissaberkane Il y a des gens qui sont prêts à se créer six comptes pour troller @nntaleb mais vraiment twitter est devenu complètement fou pic.twitter.com/Bd6R3KvnKE Permalink 8:27 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Le @dr_l_alexandre est un charlatan. Aucune etude genetique sérieuse sur le sujet. Du bidon. Voir https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   https://twitter.com/Ripamontialbert/status/1200129226269233152   Permalink 6:58 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is the classical question: “Where are the Customer’s Yachts?” Permalink 6:17 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A meeting in the Presidential Palace includes a representation of the banking sector. Where are the representatives of depositors? Where? Where? #LebanonProtests @Jad_Ghosn @dan_azzi pic.twitter.com/M3MvlXCGRT Permalink 6:05 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb India Economic Conclave Dec 16-17 https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1200350486441811968   Permalink 2:57 AM – 29 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Immense gratitude for this country, its people, its system. Permalink 3:09 PM – 28 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.” – @nntaleb https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/198481981X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=198481981X&linkCode=as2&tag=getwisertlb-20   Permalink 11:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@vtchakarova I use the occasion of #HappyThanksgiving to extent my special gratitude and big thanks to @nntaleb for giving me the unique chance to be part of his amazing #RWRI family this year and to grow immensely as a human and as a spirit! #SITG Permalink 10:39 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A mistake I made. My specialty is nonlinearity of responses. Complex systems have scaling issues from nonlinear responses. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1200048576900018178   Permalink 10:08 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The precautionary principle.” / inspired by @nntaleb & #RWRI For more visit http://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books http://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PLe4nprr56″>  pic.twitter.com/PLe4nprr56 Permalink 9:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I solved the quandary: I drink only American wine for Thanksgiving. Yet I want something Lebanese. Compromise: American wine made by Diaspora Lebanese. pic.twitter.com/7OPxpti5sV Permalink 7:59 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb As with IQ “regressions”, all it takes is one single point to change the story. #FooledbyRandomness https://twitter.com/crispakarati/status/1200025405354328065   Permalink 6:04 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@BitcoinDu Find out more about bitcoin in Lebanon at http://BitcoinDuliban.org   Permalink 5:35 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@beirut_banyan We’re joined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb for Episode 81 of The Beirut Banyan, and we discuss the October 17 Revolution and Lebanon’s modern history within the context of complex systems and local structures. Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/thebeirutbanyan/episode-81-nassim-nicholas-taleb-local-structures-for-lebanon   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/My8F6fGN8Y”>  pic.twitter.com/My8F6fGN8Y Permalink 5:09 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lebanese Bitcoiners Show How to Talk About Crypto At Thanksgiving https://www.coindesk.com/lebanese-bitcoiners-show-how-to-talk-about-crypto-at-thanksgiving   via @coindesk Permalink 3:40 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The evolution of the reputation of #RiadPonzi https://twitter.com/lukassustala/status/1199949608669106177   Permalink 3:18 AM – 28 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Never mess with other people’s sacred values. Never. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1199458779521331201   Permalink 2:15 PM – 27 Nov 2019

@B4DGETT This time of year, reminded of @nntaleb’s illustrative Thanksgiving turkey problem. pic.twitter.com/EZKxD1AA0f Permalink 11:36 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@georges_ebel “never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep” illustrated @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/hQRQqoOooy Permalink 7:59 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Buy Lebanese products. They need your dollars. Find a store near you. pic.twitter.com/5z6QnBtbS7 Permalink 6:15 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@prakashperuvamb He is a role model precisely because of that . Speaks his mind, doesn’t mince word or tolerate crap, and what he says almost always makes abundant sense … Not ur politically correct ninny nanny type @nntaleb Permalink 5:27 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Chapter on Extreme Value Theory with some results pic.twitter.com/h1XRMTbDxi Permalink 5:17 AM – 27 Nov 2019

@MarkMulvey My favorite @nntaleb quote, because most people treat math as a means to an end but he treats it like an artisan or musician: as an means to experience. https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1199470412465348608   Permalink 7:14 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I cannot stand phonies, despicable people like @BretWeinstein who act on bad faith. DESPICABLE! https://twitter.com/gallenperry/status/1199450736825917441?s=20   Permalink 2:43 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@dzviovich Wealth Gap is an emergent property of complex systems where agents interact. If system is not hijacked by rent seekers social mobility will follow as market preferences evolve. A very simple economy model will show these properties in action https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/1810873   Permalink 2:15 PM – 26 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 10:21 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fucking coward: I want to see you try to insult other religions as you did with Christianity & people holding Christian beliefs. Coward and phony! Permalink 8:36 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Attributing the #Iranprotests to fuel prices is similar to attributing the #LebaneseProtests to a tax on WhatsApp. #Verbalism pic.twitter.com/vskpcNAYOS Permalink 8:24 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@normonics Anyone want to place bets how long it takes @BretWeinstein to apologize for telling Christians to shut up about their beliefs? https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1199189516105314305   Permalink 7:02 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Probability Discovery Du Jour: the invisible tail for a power law distribution doesn’t depent on its parametrization. A closed form derivation of thee “invisible tail”. pic.twitter.com/u1OlFLP75m Permalink 5:30 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@af_rd_ @BrankoMilan citing the Antifragile work by @nntaleb. Didn’t need more incentives. But it happens to be an interesting read indeed – ‘Antifragile states and global cities’ http://bit.ly/2OJz3zX   @ips_journal Permalink 3:06 AM – 26 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Hezb now experiencing peacetime dilemmas: 1) cannot side with the protests without upsetting Iran 2) cannot use missiles against its own citizens, so militiary power is useless 3) cannot control hooligans harassing demonstrators 4) cannot afford to lose Shiite/Christian support https://twitter.com/hmalla72/status/1199023240380895234   Permalink 12:36 PM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Bible in Lebanese/”NeoCannanite”. https://twitter.com/zaqariyya/status/1198979549045886977   Permalink 7:42 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1198957709313368064?s=20   Permalink 5:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Trying to explain extreme value theory: The Fréchet is surprising simple to rederive. pic.twitter.com/9RnRTk84Av Permalink 4:39 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@gabrielacunac Brillantemente expresado por @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/PDcY6klRgy Permalink 3:52 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Summary of my point https://twitter.com/RomanCabanac/status/1198923387764183041?s=20   Permalink 3:17 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The war on the Christian religion by @BretWeinstein shows ignorance of revelation of preferences, a repeat of what the charlatan Harris is spreading. Religion is NOT epistemic, but functional, precautionary, and #LINDY. https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 3:00 AM – 25 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A lunatic… Dangerous… I thought the social planner was a closed problem. https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1198650802107113474   Permalink 2:42 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Again it is one position to say: “I wish to be with people from my tribe”, it is another one to claim: “I don’t want these people around BECAUSE they are genetically inferior”. This @erasmuse is in that second category which is FAR more dangerous. Permalink 1:13 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. pic.twitter.com/bkOqncjRPs Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen’s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ & is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w/the statistics/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse. pic.twitter.com/bkOqncjRPs Permalink 1:04 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Taleb is arrogant. Find out why. Attend #RWRI https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1198574349990715392   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/8VDS4FJ8Mq”>  pic.twitter.com/8VDS4FJ8Mq Permalink 1:01 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.” – Nassim Taleb #ethics Permalink 12:57 PM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb More precise cross-correlations, bounds for transitivity in the Technical Incerto https://twitter.com/ProbFact/status/1196473782191476749   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yWvkoKNC1l”>  pic.twitter.com/yWvkoKNC1l Permalink 4:40 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have scholarships open for Lebanese women, plus Iran, Bolivia, Catalonia, HK, etc. Permalink 4:37 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We have 5 scholarships open for Lebanese women. Permalink 4:29 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI http://realworldrisk.com   Permalink 4:09 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dan Azzi is invited to get the RWRI certificate. Unlike Harvard degrees, it is not taught by professors, empty suits and bullshitters, but by people/real scientists with skin in the game. https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1197660414663909377   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/VJMhme2kRI”>  pic.twitter.com/VJMhme2kRI Permalink 3:55 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 2) Contrary to what idiots-who-think-in-slogans spread at the tim, Proudhon was not against private property. His central idea is the domination of the state. He was fundamentally someone against the coercion of individuals. https://twitter.com/BzhClair/status/1198547693972246528?s=20   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/3vfDHLiRZR”>  pic.twitter.com/3vfDHLiRZR Permalink 2:28 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb 1) The first #localist is Proudhon. He was both anarchist & federalist, understood the link between distributed power and centralization. “Anarchy is order without power”. He got ran over by Marxists IYIs who fell for Marx’s nonsensical handwaving “scientific” approaches. pic.twitter.com/dnh1mboOe1 Permalink 2:14 AM – 24 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Complex systems #Localism https://twitter.com/justinowings/status/1198072930812530688   Permalink 3:52 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntalebbot “A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.” – @nntaleb Permalink 3:30 PM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Eric Rasmusen did produce all manner of personal abuse when my piece on IQ, heritability, etc. came out –I was wondering why, since his statistical comments were random. Turns out the fellow has indeed neo-nazi beliefs and tendencies. https://twitter.com/erasmuse/status/1196917954711080961   Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The full Triangle paper is here http://www.thinktriangle.net/extend-and-pretend-lebanons-financial-house-of-cards-2/   Permalink 10:31 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@paulportesi Debt and leverage have a @nntaleb dose-response sigmoid characteristics. Simply said, debt and leveraged is similar to drugs. It can be convex initially but will eventually reach an upper limit where it becomes concave an exponentially harmful. Permalink 10:09 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I expect plenty of factories to be built once #RiadPonzi and his policies are terminated. It took 3 years for Egypt and Turkey to build yuuuge reserves after their devaluation. I will make sure Riad Salameh is remembered as the MOST HARMFUL person in the history of #Lebanon. Permalink 6:46 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Some PR machinery is still trying to make people buy the argument that doubting GMOs is anti-science. In fact it is bullshit like this nonscientist journos such as @kittypurrzog that IS anti-science. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   https://twitter.com/kittypurrzog/status/1197942231358832641   Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I am optimistic that once the Ponzi stops, we will have a yuuuuuge boom in #Lebanon. Permalink 6:06 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After my USJ talk on #RiadPonzi & Localism a few “economists” went on MTV to explain I was nonsensical & “arrogant”, it was not a Ponzi, Lebanon is different, etc. Triangle explains where it is a Ponzi: + Use new deposits to pay interest to existing depositors rather than invest! pic.twitter.com/0LtlAZsOTb Permalink 6:03 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Civis Romanus sum The Republic of Koura in Lebanon (Capital Amioun) is closset to Cyprus & Crete. https://twitter.com/andrewidy/status/1198010880824369152   Permalink 5:20 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our paper in the philosophy of probability, with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/hc4gyy2qXQ Permalink 4:48 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Note I refuse honors and rank & when introduced as a speaker, I allow only one piece of information: Uber ratings of >4.9 Excellent bullet points for my lecktshur on #Localism at LAU New York. https://twitter.com/JacobGnther1/status/1198149271196983296   Permalink 2:38 AM – 23 Nov 2019

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic. “The best predictor of a collapse or blow-up => smooth returns” [part 2/2] / co-author @Firsou / inspired by @nntaleb’s #RWRI For more visit http://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Offshore books http://buff.ly/32k8OVz   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/5BkxugmfTw”>  pic.twitter.com/5BkxugmfTw Permalink 8:48 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@DominikWeil Following his activities in Lebanon closely – if his ideas on #localism and #decentralization of power structures can be implemented there… – provides hope & tailwind for other localist movements around the globe #freecityfrankfurt https://mobile.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1196790333000077312   Permalink 7:58 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The only way one can short it without basis risk is if it lists on the NYSE AND has high volume. Plans to list in the US were cancelled. https://twitter.com/eddyaccu/status/1197891192471588864   Permalink 7:05 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascists anf antilocalists are easily pushed to produce incoherence https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197870058514665472?s=20   Permalink 5:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My approach is not to convince the person but expose publicly his defects in reasoning. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197864991912796160?s=20   Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Fascist @asadabukhalil wrote the only commentary on my talk on #Localism below The fascist denies local ancestral Lebanese poetry (Zajal) as a literary form. The unmistakable stamp of fascism all across. Particularly in the denial of the notion of scale. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww?view_as=subscriber   Permalink 4:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Start tagging Arabists as “facists” nemesis of #Localism They COERCE you into an “identity” Destroy diversity & force a Medieval language w/purity Stamp out Mediterranean culture in Lebanon, & its character as cultural crossroad Example: antilocalist fascist @asadabukhalil Permalink 4:37 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@marciadabliu .not that these people would be interested but it seems @nntaleb has demolished the concept of IQ measuring let alone that intelligence could ever be inherited. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   and yes, ooops some many ethical issues involved Permalink 3:15 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb People in Lebanon are not yet used to see a person entirely free who doesn’t give a fuck about his reputation. Permalink 2:42 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He made the mistake of pathologizing someone, which to me is a yuuuge intellectual violation. He will pay for it for the rest of his life as I find it egregious: that’s what the Soviets did with dissent. Never pathologize. Permalink 2:07 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This is NOT squid ink. Just colored pasta. @adam_sajdak https://twitter.com/adam_sajdak/status/1197676208907018241   Permalink 1:57 AM – 22 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Is it me or it is quite strange when someone keeps insulting you online, but not in person when they unexpectly meet you in the physical world? In other words talk is cheap online, but costly in real life. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1197255332864647168   Permalink 2:12 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics We live in a novel age, no doubt But you have to be blind to believe it is “absolutely” novel Most of what is relevant to us is not new but very old indeed, easy to take for granted I suppose And, what should one “blindly follow”, Bret? The latest trend? https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1197576604563562499   Permalink 1:13 PM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb From the remarks of the mob @RaniaKhalek is sending my way, there is an ELEMENTARY defect of reasoning both with her & the mob. One can be AGAINST US interventionism yet AGAINST repressive theocracy & AGAINST the massacre of young protesters in Iraq & Iran. Fehménin? Permalink 10:34 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Finishing a paper in philosophy of probability with @DrCirillo pic.twitter.com/TofruImYBO Permalink 10:15 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@normonics .@TulsiGabbard expressed the need for local-first and regional-based agriculture model last night This is common sense from every perspective *except* for large scale factory-style industrial agriculture corporations and their lobby. Thank you, Tulsi. Permalink 8:47 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Outside an ancestral environment (or a small village), you cannot be both ethical and striving for people to like you. Permalink 8:42 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb OK, confirmed statistically. 100% of @RaniaKhalek posts are propaganda. There is NO information in the posts of the propagandists, since all you see is cherrypicked. Her “journalism” career is done. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1197412341874339840?s=20   Permalink 7:27 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@Boswall_Jacob For all depositors at #Lebanese banks, @Li_Haqqi and @nizarghanem have created a Facebook campaign to ensure that small and medium account holders don’t foot the bill of the #economic crisis. #لبنان It’s called #لن_ندفع_الثمن – find your bank here: https://www.facebook.com/LiHaqqi/photos/a.759628340890167/1276672349185761/?type=3&theater   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lR6eggnVUM”>  pic.twitter.com/lR6eggnVUM Permalink 6:37 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I removed from The Black Swan these comment because, at the time, I was stupid enough to listen to editors. “A White Swan not taking place is a Black Swan.” “You look at counterexamples for the usual, verification for the unusual”. https://twitter.com/Heinonmatti/status/1197502130799677440   Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb MODERNISM Before the formation of the Greek Nation-State & Nordic historical manufacturing, Greek “identity” was not built ar. Classical Greece,but Greek Orthodoxy Greek Restaurants, now called “Olympic”, Acropolis, wd have been “Agios Nikolaos”, “Ag. Dimitrios”, “Aya Pelagia” Permalink 3:56 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@jbaksht I bought Incerto, can’t wait to reread all of them. Thanks @nntaleb https://twitter.com/kpaxs/status/1197240014880563202   Permalink 3:55 AM – 21 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Dabké Anatolian in origin. East Med imprint. Naples was Neapolis a Greek settlement. https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1197281616936067072   Permalink 2:36 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Life is boring if your online detractors freeze in terror when they run into you in the physical world. I saw a nondeadlifting stranger in a state of yuuge terror as I passed by his table, as if he ran into the Loch Ness Monster. Could be from photo the Arabo-fascist @joeyayoub https://twitter.com/Decafquest/status/1195762604796502025   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/dUCilXhM0e”>  pic.twitter.com/dUCilXhM0e Permalink 12:48 PM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I told an assembly of prominent farts in Lebanon, the local establishment: I don’t care about you f*cks, so long as your children are reading the INCERTO. And they are. Permalink 8:19 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Napoleon wanted power & glory. He liked flashy victories. Cambaceres who *wrote* the Napoleonic code liked influence. Napoleon lost everything but most of the world uses the Cambareces code dubbed “code Napoléon”. The world is run according to C. Gabish? https://twitter.com/prateekkul/status/1197184716815978497?s=20   Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I respect those who seek influence; never those who seek power. Permalink 7:48 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@JamesMarsh79 i think this proves Nassim’s point about size. pic.twitter.com/fCuYrzuXkv Permalink 7:33 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb Lebanon: From Ponzi to Localism https://youtu.be/53uW9Xd_JRU   Permalink 7:24 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb After defending her (benefits of the doubt), I am now nearly certain that @RaniaKhalek is an Iranian regime shill. The Regime is massacring hundreds of youths in Iraq & Iran. It is unpardonable. A shill is always UNCONDITIONALLY on one side of an issue. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1197125109963776001   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ddbxESnPpu”>  pic.twitter.com/ddbxESnPpu Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:09 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@Zzeghedrane Localism taking place and shape strongly on the ground instead of in theory Cc: @nntaleb https://twitter.com/kassimchahrour/status/1197079385012133889   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KJseJ0J4ZV”>  pic.twitter.com/KJseJ0J4ZV Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The foundation of the 1/n heuristic is that the law of large numbers cannot be invoked. https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1196957373438578688   Permalink 5:12 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb In other words we get an exponential out of a power law. Permalink 3:57 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Interesting (and shocking) result. The “missing tail” for a power law follows a thin-tailed distribution. pic.twitter.com/Uh2RR8ikzF Permalink 2:22 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC MYSTERIOUS PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Seems that qariba قارب (small boat) doesn’t come from קָרוֹב قرب, proximity (to coast) but from the Byzantine Greek καράβι (pl.l καράβια) [same root as”crab”] Could the Byz. Greek originate from the Semitic קָרוֹב via Syrian Greek? Permalink 2:03 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb It feels the riots are more likely to succeed in Iran because: 1- Trump did not claim direct credit 2- Little news coverage 3- It feels like it is about time, I mean about time Permalink 12:35 PM – 19 Nov 2019

@HietanenPaavo More shenanigans by Finnish #Antifragile team w/ @LIHF_Living @STrosterud @Heinonmatti. Discussing hunting, Finnish localism and how more @nntaleb’s localism should be planted to Finnish political soil pic.twitter.com/Vywx3JgEne Permalink 11:25 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi These estimates were close. Got new information, the alpha coefficient is stable. pic.twitter.com/hsgpzkZuOY Permalink 9:08 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@VqVoice Our new article is about making good software architecture for hearables, ergodicity, and just a little about Scorsese’s awesome film Casino (with special thanks to @nntaleb and #RWRI ) #technology #startup #softwaredevelopment https://medium.com/the-science-of-conversation/the-casino-problem-and-hearable-software-architecture-5de2730a42ec?source=friends_link&sk=233bfb8ca47514fb669804146b05eba9   Permalink 7:51 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@BrendanJHammer Taking my daily @nntaleb – he nails it here on the proxy wars of couples. #BedOfProcrustes pic.twitter.com/S8VYxYqWBX Permalink 7:33 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I detect that our movement is killing the old Libertarian and anarchist factions. #Localism https://twitter.com/jed_trott/status/1196791845671653376   Permalink 7:23 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@normonics https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1196790333000077312   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hnp4YKByVy”>  pic.twitter.com/hnp4YKByVy Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/mhaffar/status/1196794602994487296   Permalink 6:20 AM – 19 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Case closed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-18/aramco-failure-to-win-foreign-investors-makes-ipo-a-local-event?srnd=premium-middle-east   Permalink 7:49 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@RickKLN Rediscovered my faith years ago when you blocked me on FB. A Christian that didn’t discuss both sides, and could dismiss questions as BS changed my life. One of these years I will attend #RWRI and say thanks in person. Diplomacy is NOT more effective. BS busting is. Permalink 2:18 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A Sheikh in the Beqaa is saying “we can deliver Switzerland of the East” in 20 days. We do not need the central state. https://twitter.com/HsenAndil/status/1196367753436946432   Permalink 2:07 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese are still shocked by my “in your face” blunt, totally unapologetic, uncompromising, no-BS, “he’s incompetent”/”you’re an idiot” approach, esp when I address IYI “specialists” I threw someone w/unsollicited advice “diplomacy is more effective” out of my house. Permalink 2:06 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Very rough statistical estimatess. Wished the banks told us more. Good news for the small depositor pic.twitter.com/WKp6ptnO9J Permalink 1:25 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Key part in PRINCIPIA is that the demarcation left-right has been redrawn by real science, along the lines STATIST-LOCALIST-MINARCHIST When I gave my tawk in Boulder, was told US most localists self-defined as “left”.Super-localist= Libertarian, etc. I prefer the IDIOT-NONIDIOT https://twitter.com/laurentozon/status/1196347126466396162   Permalink 1:23 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I think the haircut can be milder 200k-1 mil, since the bulk is from accounts>1 mil Permalink 1:12 AM – 18 Nov 2019

@nntaleb There is a problem w/: Short Aramco Long Oil contracts which maturity? Aramco =~ perpetual maturity The front contracts can be much, much more volatile than the back and decorrelate during squeezes. Discussed in one of the #RWRI https://twitter.com/mazen_barbir/status/1196292503743401985?s=20   Permalink 11:39 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Solved half pic.twitter.com/BAJ2Hg9oZv Permalink 4:29 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ (Statistical sleuthing) We know that +1% of accts in #Lebanon own 50% of total, $170 bil +accts <$200K represent $20 bil in total (rough numbers) Assume Pareto distr. How many accounts have > 200K, 1 mil, 10 mil ? What’s the weekly drain from 1000$ withdrawal per acct? Permalink 4:09 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@Firsou Anyone in Lebanon that advocates indebting the country in a similar manner should be treated with extreme suspicion. https://www.africanstand.com/business/china-to-take-over-kenyas-main-port-over-unpaid-huge-chinese-loan/   Permalink 3:53 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I saw no such posters. My point is that the only way to satisfy Salafis is to give them their own communes. Unless you recommend “killing them all”. https://twitter.com/AliSalaam_DTI/status/1196190174906068993   Permalink 2:18 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism A crowd starts clapping from one single trigger. Revolutions (1848, #LebanonProtest, Iran, Iraq, Chile, H-K, Barcelona) spread spontaneously, “leaderless”, bec. complex systems work by 1 heuristic: once you find the trigger, you get power law behavior. Hard to reverse. Permalink 2:10 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb He said “Tripolis is 10% Salafi, mostly in one neighborhood, & there is no alcohol in the whole place out of fear. You need to either increase the subdivisions or force the sectarians into a secular system that will turn them into terrorists out of resentment.” Permalink 1:50 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb #Localism at its best!!! Intoxicated by what is happening in Tripolis (Troblos) Tens of simultaneous ORDERLY discussion groups on constitutional, legal, economic matters Shocked to hear someone telling me “Tripoli shd not be one municipality ” because “minority rules”! pic.twitter.com/kw6Ns9RPmP Permalink 12:57 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Albert Kostanian proposing the equitable haircut proposed on his program: spare small accounts <200K, have a progressive haircut. https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1195895226080120832/pu/vid/480×270/euqLRKy2IEHnjwzB.mp4?tag=10   https://twitter.com/AlbertKostanian/status/1195999663071121410   Permalink 12:47 PM – 17 Nov 2019

@soonaorlater ‘Bitcoin removes [government] from the transaction…They’re trying to ‘ban bitcoin’ because they’re afraid of it. It’s important for us [the Lebanese] from now on to learn about crypto. Our collective intelligence is greater than the state’s’ – @nntaleb https://open.tube/videos/watch/f5813d6f-96d2-4e95-b3b3-a7c6a51abd7f   Permalink 11:24 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb A rioter was explaining the Silver Rule: “Mitl ma bit3omil btet3omal” Permalink 10:03 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Troblos (Tripolis) The epicenter of the Revolution. pic.twitter.com/BFauyzR9CF Permalink 9:56 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@rebeccacollard “From Tehran to Beirut, one revolution that won’t die” Lebanese chanting in support of Iran protests tonight. #LebanonProtests #IranProtests #iran #لبنان_ينتقض pic.twitter.com/V9QydyrU9A Permalink 9:20 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@nntaleb II- Also as a bonus you “earn” the country risk since Aramco is located in the Shiite area with an oppressed minority who rightfully believe oil is theirs. Permalink 8:18 AM – 17 Nov 2019

@PZalloua At z Lecture on Localism, Beirut USJ @nntaleb over-filled pic.twitter.com/LADSCuupyj Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb I want to be sued for the defamation of #RiadPonzi https://twitter.com/aya_majzoub/status/1194563388266823680   Permalink 6:25 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Pareto 80/20 Estimated share of deposits. I suggest NO HAIRCUT except for acc >500K-1m & progressive beyond. pic.twitter.com/JZxgt5Z8HB Permalink 5:11 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb GEORGIA as a model for #Lebanon MOST successful post-Soviet state. -Fired the entire police dept. Over 7 month w/o law enforcement, crime dropped by 60% (they claim) -Anti-corruption gov : most in their 20s, PM 32. 0 tolerance,$20 bribe=>7y jail #كلن_يعني_كلن @fadyasly Permalink 4:17 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb This tweet puts to rest all possible theories of “Aounist tendencies” on my part. I am intransigent & INDEPENDENT. Always, everywhere, w/ no political loyalties even if I am buddies w/@Gebran_Bassil A judge has no friends. There are NO exceptions. #كلن_يعني_كلن #لبنان_ينتفض Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Full paper (2nd revision) is here https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.11162   Permalink 3:47 AM – 15 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Typo: (“incl Gold” shd be “excl. Gold”), but P/L (actual negative bleed) must me much > $5 bn. Ref: Toufic Gaspard’s note. pic.twitter.com/Ip0a0US4BP Permalink 5:53 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My talk tomorrow. Riad’s Ponzi has been depleting reserves at a yuuuuge rate & borrowing to preserve a harmful “peg”. BDL has liabilities >$86 bil costing huge carry and assets <$40bil (incl. gold) earning <1%. On top of the fiscal deficit Riad’s Ponzi is costing>$5 bil/year https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1194968612940996608   Permalink 5:32 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Revised the paper on the misfitness of binary predictions in real life (and the nonsense in many psychological claims) @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com/owoC1TWEjV Permalink 4:35 AM – 14 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Our (non naive) precautionary principle page. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 2:27 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb You cannot possibly give Aoun the benefit of the doubt. He is, besides, talking to citizens as if they were his SUBJECTS, or a general’s subordinates. https://twitter.com/Fadi_Ramadan/status/1194740505713807360?s=20   Permalink 2:23 PM – 13 Nov 2019

@normonics There are moments where I almost feel pity on a guy like this But invariably they re-reveal themselves Steven Brainiac Pinker: “If you don’t recite my corporate propaganda you are a mindless killer” What a f**ing piece of trash. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1194449088185454592   Permalink 9:35 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Aoun seems to see the protests as some transitory annoyance –he appears to be irritated by the messenger. Permalink 7:34 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Optionality and the Intellectual Life: In Gratitude for the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI 12 https://www.frontporchrepublic.com/2019/11/optionality-and-the-intellectual-life-in-gratitude-for-the-real-world-risk-institute/   Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Indeed I listened to his interview. That’s what he said. And, what is worse, what he meant. Permalink 6:09 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb President Michel Aoun You said that those who don’t like the government should emigrate. I am doing the exact reverse. I left 43 years ago. I am now in transit to Beirut, just to make sure YOU emigrate. #LebanonProtests cc:@Gebran_Bassil #لبنان_ينتفض pic.twitter.com/yM2vZybypr Permalink 4:55 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb FORMAL INVITATION. First come first served pic.twitter.com/gNmMthVM5A Permalink 1:27 AM – 13 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Anatomy of a state Ponzi. These are largely accumulated phantom interest earnings. Salameh killed the Lebanese economy. Scammer!!! https://twitter.com/ehsani22/status/1191790897387769856   Permalink 4:21 PM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lesson from Riad Salameh’s incompetence: No central banker should ever try to print money in a foreign currency. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@otrasenda_AC Who else started to DL because reading @nntaleb ? i did https://twitter.com/AntonioSerbia/status/1194295926938095619   Permalink 11:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Owing to the responses, USJ will be using a different amphitheater >500 pple; a new announcement will be posted tomorrow. [Also note that your twitter response is not a reservation but a market assessment; it is still first come first served] Permalink 9:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@PaulSkallas Here’s some Libanius pic.twitter.com/2rQFRZsxeE Permalink 7:23 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Lghtak hiyyé l bt7ké ma3 immak. Msh lghét l sa7ra lb3idé. #Localism #Lma7alliyé Permalink 4:53 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Please make sure to confirm attendance. pic.twitter.com/PCB2KoXbsD Permalink 3:31 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb My lecture, Friday 6 PM “From Ponzi to Localism” USJ School of Medicine Please confirm on Twitter so we can predict attendance. LANGUAGE: Lebanese pic.twitter.com/aFdVZYf5BX Permalink 1:46 AM – 12 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Yes, formalized here see my paper on Antifragility in medicine https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf   https://twitter.com/npandey25/status/1193902978693881857   Permalink 7:22 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@Stefano_Peron kernel Mutual information in cluster matrix. Tnx to @financequant @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9TrhAhdNVR Permalink 6:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb WE MUST STOP SALAMEH NOW! #RiadPonzi Salameh MUST suspend payments on the Eurobond & declare a moratorium. This is outright theft from Lebanese citizens. Send to your friends! Will discuss further on Friday evening 6PM in Beirut #lebanonprotest #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 6:27 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@MauriceMassaad I work in a Leb co. that manufactures steel shelving solutions. 10 y ago we started exporting to difficult countries in Europe, Africa, ME. I personally spent 4 y trying to convince a French company to join us … with success! Now we are not able to deliver. Thank you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb When you are scared, it is impossible to hide it, no matter how hard you try. Permalink 4:19 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb CURRENT TWITTER ACTIVISM +#Localism & anti geopolitical BS vendors/Arabist fascism), & #lebanonprotest +#RiadPonzi +Pseudostatistics, esp. #Quilletbeciles/Neonazis/Eugenists w IQ claims & other #Alt-Right #Nordicists +#Nudge Finished: #Monsanto, #SaudiBarbaria, #Econometrics Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb We don’t have to avoid imports, but the local industry became …just banks. I want #RiadPonzi to pay for it. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh’s Ponzi killed the Lebanese economy: small businesses, anything that could provide exports or mitigate imports has been crowded out. #RiadPonzi #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests Permalink 3:50 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Salameh is criminally incompetent. And, of course, a liar. #لبنان_ينتفض #LebanonProtests https://twitter.com/DailyStarLeb/status/1193854637788545024   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@OddmundGrotte Skin In The Game: Family/Owner-Operated Companies Perform Better? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4303077-skin-game-family-owner-operated-companies-perform-better   Permalink 2:04 AM – 11 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Friends, looking for a Madoff expert to figure out how they finally allocated the losses. #Ponzi #LebanonProtests #لبنان__ينتفض Permalink 3:40 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@TalebWisdom “Wisdom isn’t about understanding things (& people); it is knowing what they can do to you.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #wisdom Permalink 1:10 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@nntaleb Good news that Western newspapers are not reporting on #LebanonProtests. Why? Journos only get geopolitics & this is (still) a localist anti-geopolitical revolt. Trick by BS vendors (eg @tomfriedman) who understand nothing is make things geopolitical. (See #TheBlackSwan) Permalink 12:05 PM – 10 Nov 2019

@justinowings What’s lost in the climate debate? Pushing models and trusting experts _undermines_ the argument for caution. Alternative argument: Set the science aside. Lean on decision making under uncertainty—something everyone understands. “We have only one planet.” So don’t f**k it up. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370   Permalink 7:35 AM – 10 Nov 2019

@Lekapenos 1) I’m going to continue ridiculing the “muh steppe” quasi-Nordicists here: “The genetic basis of a number of physical features of the Yamnaya people were ascertained by the ancient DNA studies conducted by Haak et al. (2015), Wilde et al. (2014) and Mathieson et al. (2015): Permalink 5:56 AM – 10 Nov 2019