Tag Archives: Bureaucracy

#RWRI13, Connectivity, endcoronavirus.org, Contact Between People, virucide, Quillettists, #RiadPonzi, John Gray, Conferences, Sunstein, Superspreader, TRUE JUSTICE, Harari, Dawkins, Hanson, Thaler, George Steiner, Bureaucracy, Localism

@Pascallisch Same is true for animals/evolved cognitive systems. Most false positives for predator detection in foliage are without consequence. A single false negative can be fatal. Raw accuracy is not the point. Permalink 9:11 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If the word “panic” means “exaggerated” reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem. We have survived for zillion years thanks to “irrational” “panics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235663235573067777?s=20   Permalink 8:30 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Saying the coronavirus panic is dumb is dumb. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #WittgensteinsRuler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528   Permalink 7:56 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “If you see fraud, & you don’t say fraud, you are a fraud”. I provided a list of #RiadPonzi & the banker’s partisans. They also engaged in smearing those who were opposed to paying. https://twitter.com/Nasser_Saidi/status/1236253217010450432   Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 1) Predictions don’t count. It’s their payoff, what you do w/them (x is not f(x) ). Academics don’t get it. “Speculators are not paid in true or false, but in $) 2) Indeed, I don’t run the account. But I save the tweets as I am too lazy to have a notebook. Thanks, Cetin. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1236080589897375749   Permalink 4:19 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Impressive: he was self-taught in Semitic languages. Like our @HsenAndil “Only autodidacts are free” (#Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/21brbso7PR Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@HomegrownJoan @nntaleb Nurses need help! https://mobile.twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651   https://twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651   Permalink 3:05 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb We hit 400 volunteers! https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719   Permalink 2:53 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb New job https://twitter.com/Imparziale4/status/1236061954772475904   Permalink 2:52 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@paulportesi @nntaleb Wittgenstein ruler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528   Permalink 2:10 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Possibly the most erudite man in history. He taught himself Semitic Languages & translated Arabic proverbs into Latin. He knew Arabic, Greek, Latin, Hebrew, Syriac/Aramaic. He was to Montaigne (then considered a popularizing philistine) what Umberto Eco was to Fox News. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1235995793280163840   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU”>  pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU Permalink 11:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft… Permalink 8:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@dancarna Localism in Seattle: the CDC was taking too long with multiple fumbles getting testing kits to us so we made our own. Now we’re able to test 1000 people per day https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/with-seattle-on-the-front-lines-of-covid-19-epidemic-university-of-washington-lab-given-emergency-approval-to-test-for-coronavirus/   Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@normonics As this thing evolves, remember: we did not hedge. We told you what we saw and what was coming if we failed to take action. Most are too busy hedging to get their head out of the sand. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters New blog post. Probability weighting is one of those supposed cognitive biases that evaporate, as far as I can tell, when we think carefully about how to live within time. https://ergodicityeconomics.com/2020/03/06/probability-weighting-and-ergodicity-economics/   Permalink 6:26 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually we can show this identity is false: Negative log = log[abs[]]+ i \pi is not really a function, when we solve as 1 rather than 2 integrals we get a residual of \frac{\pi^3}{3}. Otherwise the left integral is something like -5/4 i zeta(3) “offset” by the second integral. Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM ! Mervyn King understand that city-states shd deal directly with one another, not via some bureaucrat in Brussels/DC Athens had a deal w/Sidon: full rights in both places (at least in Athens, where resident Sidonese were not metics but citizens) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-06/mervyn-king-city-of-london-should-align-with-new-york-not-eu?srnd=premium   Permalink 5:48 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Friends, Now that you understand multiplicative and systemic effects, you can get why we worry about GMOs –but not small idiosyncratic risks. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO”>  pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO Permalink 3:54 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@MKM_Abdul Precisely what @nntaleb wrote in Antifragile. https://twitter.com/annchildersmd/status/1235632957995372544   Permalink 2:16 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thanks for the help. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Another blue check mark who doesn’t understand 1) multiplicative processes, 2) risk, 3) other stuff. Yet spreading danger. Another one. https://twitter.com/PeterDiamandis/status/1235682503605669888   Permalink 1:58 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why it is SELFISH to not worry more about the virus than other sources of risk even if it does not affect you as much. Individual precaution does not scale to collective precaution. [Adding to PRINCIPIA POLITICA] pic.twitter.com/F7jRKAQ4dz Permalink 12:27 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Maestro Statistician Andrew Gelman going (as usual) after nudgeboy @CassSunstein [If you want to be scared, imagine him or concoctista “Rationality Richard” @Richard_Thaler doing some nudging from the White House if Biden is elected.] https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/03/03/coronavirus-panic-news/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm”>  pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail hedge: he explains the logic of how to make a portfolio ergodic by cutting the left tail. https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1235316588640759808   Permalink 9:27 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb News is misleading. They froze the assets of bank OWNERS & managers. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grrrrrrrreat news! The Cascade has started. Next in line: #RiadPonzi (Fakkét l masb7a!) https://reut.rs/2Tq9FTC   Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/dMOcjFwhmJ Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Those who mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence (like these morons) end up leaving the gene pool, except that here they endanger others. https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1235247099756892162   Permalink 10:39 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) Ricardo got the point but missed on its analytical consequences. pic.twitter.com/CLPZG4aOQS Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Its time to take action to stop COVID-19. Join our volunteers working at local and regional levels to help contain the virus. Email necsivolunteers@gmail.com with your state and county information to join the team @nntaleb Permalink 8:05 PM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And… when you finish one volume, start a new one. Technical Incerto Volume 2 pic.twitter.com/4tTlvPpwJ0 Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Add this smearer @Berti74 pic.twitter.com/KABktMe6hg Permalink 7:22 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Neo-nazis, like Quillettists, are statistically incompetent, parroting buzzwords like “PCA” Even if correct (it’s not),PCAs, 1)reflect recent endogamy, 2)distances need to be corrected. Entropy: If pple LOOK the same, they ARE the same. See my paper: https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn”>  pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn Permalink 6:28 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This music must be coming from deep Anatolia/East Med, before these languages came to the region. https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285?s=21   https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Yaneer explains the payoff from “panic”. If you reduce the connectivity between people the rate drops & we are nonlineaely out of the woods. Hint: the flu season typically starts & ends with the school year. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1234638804725751814   Permalink 5:00 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Ladino version of Jews from Turkey https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=234&v=uSOrl7l9lOg&feature=emb_logo   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU”>  pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU Permalink 1:06 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few Turks are aware of the fact that they are almost entirely converted Greeks/Armenians/Georgians/Levantines. “Languages travel, genes stay” https://twitter.com/C_Westling/status/1234581871142588421?s=20   Permalink 12:52 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Greek version: Ο ΓΙΑΤΡΟΣ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8_fyNHO7q0   Permalink 12:44 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Levantine versions of “Aman Doktor” سكابا يا دموع العين https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoQ53H3wyKU   https://twitter.com/AlfredHarb/status/1234564732423680000?s=20   Permalink 12:09 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb EAST MED In spite of what Nordic supremacists have led people to believe, Greeks, Turks, Western Armenians, Anatolian Kurds, & Northern Syrians are the same people. They have the same soul. https://twitter.com/DIAS/status/1234256857360949249   Permalink 8:23 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@imleslahdin The way @nntaleb writes is the best model in the world. Not just the content, the whole open process. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234439613642682373   Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Came home to find hard copies of the new book. Beautiful. This is print on demand, which costs $20 per copy to print (highest quality paper). The volume version should costs $5-7 to print & will be available in 2 months. Meanwhile PDF is free: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ”>  pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ Permalink 3:25 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb John Gray is the real deal. https://twitter.com/davidsarac/status/1234138190048423937   Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@DIAS In Istanbul, some friends were singing an old Turkish song “Aman Doktor” in a restaurant. A Greek man walks up to the table and starts singing the same song in Greek (Greeks and Turks share many old folk songs) At the end The 2 men showed great respect to eachother wow pic.twitter.com/w2cWaliQyf Permalink 3:19 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb AVOID PSEUDO-EMPIRICISM Just realized that the point about @CassSunstein style of pseudo-empiricism (common to journos/psychologists of risk and “rationality”) is explicit in Skin In the Game, nontechnical! pic.twitter.com/eiUIldB24M Permalink 1:50 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BLOCKING & FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION A twitter feed is NOT an open public forum. It is private. It is like your daily newspaper or your personal classroom. You are free to let in only qualified students. Otherwise noise will overtake your life. Permalink 12:01 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The wisest thing is to preemptively block every journalist — particularly UK and “science” ones. https://twitter.com/CalJamieson/status/1234202323834068993   Permalink 11:55 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Conferences are bad not because of how many people one connects with there, but because they move germs across the planet, de-localize the problem. https://twitter.com/TurgesonFerd/status/1234198348615147521?s=20   Permalink 11:34 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One heuristic. Whenever you hear “evidence based”, expect probabilistic fraud. https://twitter.com/AlfonsoSpencer9/status/1234042331030007808   Permalink 10:57 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Blocked the fellow (among others who dangerously advocate “no worry”). Higher fatality rate can actually lower the risk of the disease, make tails thinner. Why? Simply because dead people tend to not take planes, trains subways, & cruises. Even in California. pic.twitter.com/z32uuRvbzg Permalink 10:18 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@perfexcellent When I see this, the more I wish people would follow @nntaleb’s advice that these bodies should be created with a non-negotiable expiry date. Permalink 8:14 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@KaMiller1 Bottom of page 2 above the comic: @nntaleb provides greatest footnote in the history of footnotes. You made my morning, Sir! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234093143089434624   Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@TulsiGabbard .@realDonaldTrump Remember this? https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/375759718251503616   Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HfkamAmsAl Permalink 4:32 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those still unable to understand that death from multiplicative processes such as corona are NOT to be compared to those from thin-tailed sources, see Chapter 3 of new book: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ”>  pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is not the base rate fucking fallacy. Please stop using names given by ignorant psychologists to statistical phenomena. Permalink 6:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb There is a marked-to-market problem. Low incidence = low testing. Only places that mark to market properly seem to be Singapore and Bella Italia. pic.twitter.com/seSrdFy3X8 Permalink 5:31 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The initial discussion was how intelligent people (in the real sense, that is, people who get stuff) don’t correlate much with those with high IQ scores (IQ scores select for idiots who are good test takers/prone to becoming bureaucrats and slaves of states & large corps). Permalink 4:43 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Why, among public figures, good looking people (actors) are not so intelligent, and intelligent people are not so good looking? (Posed by @joe_shipman) pic.twitter.com/idK1xOfeH2 Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam We are looking for volunteers for the coronavirus outbreak response. Please DM me if you are willing to help. In order for this to be stopped we need to work together to make it happen. Permalink 3:25 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The entire idea of the INCERTO is that uncertainty makes some decisions muuuuuuch easier. If I am “uncertain” about the skills of the pilot, I take another plane. If I am “uncertain” about an investment, I say no, etc. But Nudgeboy @CassSunstein suggests opposite. pic.twitter.com/I3jCFqSV6o Permalink 2:17 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The logical problem with IYIS: we don’t know the risk HENCE let’s ignore it. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1233757564921356290?s=20   Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Most places with “low incidence” are turning out to be places of *low testing*. Includes, of course, the United States. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1233784596241747968   Permalink 9:58 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The rate of infection drops when fewer people are in enclosed spaces. Singapore has too much AC in the summer. https://twitter.com/Kaschat1/status/1233771178357075968   Permalink 7:11 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@ggreenwald This Boston Globe column says Sanders’ attempt to win the Massachusetts primary is “very disrespectful” to Sen. Warren, a form of “major humiliation,” one that reveals an ugly character flaw of “unbridled ambition” that is “exceedingly off-putting” https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-goes-campaign-kill/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr”>  pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@kemaunders Thank you to the brilliant team (@nntaleb, Raphael Douady, @financequant, Alicia Bentham Williams, @normonics, @trishankkarthik, Arié H, and Tom Messina) and my fellow participants who made #RWRI 13 an experience that will touch many parts of life. My immediate to do list… Permalink 2:29 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@seandaken THANK YOU Alicia Bentham-Williams @nntaleb Raphael Douady @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @ariehaziza @vergilden and my fellow participants for an incredible week. Found my people. See you at a future #RWRI #RWRI13 #incerto #oneplusminusalpha #cutthetail Permalink 5:06 PM – 28 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Please use # #RWRI not just #RWRI13 https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232668480153014272   Permalink 9:20 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 How simple rules build complex structures with Mathematica code by ⁦@financequant ⁩ Genome cannot explain the conplexity of life pic.twitter.com/QIMxe8e3aX Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:10 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The hidden mean: you know that real cases are (at best) equal or higher than reported. Reported = lower bound, not estimate. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1232676620667891715   Permalink 6:44 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/leominkus/status/1232419862879842306   Permalink 4:40 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@harshacoach People think of government as an abstract theological entity, not as a collection of individuals without skin in the game @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Tra l’altro, in questo thread qui sotto, la traduzione in italiano di alcuni documenti degli autori sopracitati: https://t.co/NGd4ef8Yc7   https://twitter.com/dellannaluca/status/1231140691020894208?s=21   Permalink 4:23 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@flaneurizer @nntaleb does not say directly, but China has same relationship with Hong Kong, milking it for the last 20 years. IYIs shout about China wanting to “crush” Hong Kong, but that’s BS. Just a mafioso maybe overplaying their hand. https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232325743536984064   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Atheists are just modern versions of religious fundamentalists: they both take religion too literally.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/nachooliveras/status/1232383749616230401   Permalink 4:29 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@RealJamesWoods Thank you, Doug. This is a brilliant assessment of our current situation with the #Wuhan #CoronaVirus. More importantly, as I understand it, taking strong, unpopular steps to implement strategic intervention before the pandemic is catastrophic in America is absolutely critical. https://twitter.com/ComplexSE/status/1232402538189787137   Permalink 12:58 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@bakingVC Forecasters don’t get rich by being right „on average“. Basically, that’s why there are no rich forecasters. #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The exact discussion at #RWRI about people who don’t get that risk taking is good, under some conditions; and how to defeat sophistry like the one bt this ignorant fellow @realYuriOrlov that “no systemic multiplicative tail exposures” is not “take no risks” at all. https://twitter.com/realYuriOrlov/status/1232375927511769088   Permalink 10:59 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@normonics .@nntaleb currently discussing how social media is a return to a more natural communication pattern, a return from central media gatekeepers #RWRI #RWRI13 #lindy https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1188444355922661376   Permalink 8:53 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@JacobGnther1 “I live in a cave. There are no corners in my house…” #RWRI @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/8vE0Ler9gB Permalink 6:27 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@NachoOliveras Day 2 of #rwri13 just taking off! 1/n pic.twitter.com/bfWtYdYAgx Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@ErikByronTaylor Learned yesterday why guy in the slide is NOT irrational. (Took liberty of updating slide to read Corona instead of Ebola to make it more timely #photoshop) #RWRI #rwri13 pic.twitter.com/LT8TeKIc89 Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@seandaken Having a blast at #RWRI in NYC with @nntaleb and ~65 others pic.twitter.com/py5sUuIRyi Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/docroger/status/1231951997298970624   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/DocRoger/status/1231951997298970624   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump @ErikSchatzker #Negotiations #TheArtoftheDeal #hitfirst pic.twitter.com/FOK8ZLvwwj Permalink 6:07 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I mean infections. Permalink 6:46 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The carpenter fallacy. To understand large gains/losses in a Casino roulette, you don’t ask a carpenter, but a probabilist. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1231768196371435520?s=20   Permalink 6:39 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Doctors and the #WHO don’t understand multiplication. They understand medicine (& addition), not multiplication. When we posted this on Jan 26, there were ~1,000 casualties. Today ~79,000. Unless we overreact, at that rate, in 1 month , can reach yuuuge numbers @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 6:38 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam It is time to stop thinking about pandemic response as a medical effort. Physicians are not trained to evaluate economic impacts, to impose actions for cities, and to engage in the social behavioral change that is needed. Permalink 6:29 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia. Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/brucefenton/status/1231753275252318210?s=20   Permalink 5:53 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 5:24 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Permalink 5:23 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Finally ideas on religions as non comparable items are starting to spread. pic.twitter.com/U93Bze7JbC Permalink 4:56 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1231740183206338565?s=20   Permalink 4:47 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU, increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity. https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1231587280449654784   Permalink 4:34 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@Renegade_Masta @save_the_tweet #please Fucking idiot. Worst case =total destruction. Best case = inconvenience + being wrong. You take inconvenience every time. And yes I live in the area. There is no such thing as overreaction. @DellAnnaLuca @nntaleb @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@bantofu “We need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all these things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock” Antifragile-@nntaleb Permalink 8:26 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Be predictable in granting rewards; unpredictable in delivering punishment. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@ntarunkumar The really important persons in your life are the ones you shouldn’t have to impress. (A personal twist to something I read in @nntaleb ‘s insight on ethics – Bed of Procrustes – and dog ownership). Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb (Each in a different field: philosophers, historians, pol scientists) Erratum: Paul Veyne not Jules. Add: Jane Jacobs, James Scott, E Le Roy Ladurie, etc. Permalink 5:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Answer to who are the (recent) thinkers I don’t find BS vendors? In random order Saul Kripke, Derek Parfit, Elinor Ostrom, Fernand Braudel, Jules Veyne, Tom Holland, Peter Frankopan, Jean-François Revel, Michael Okeshott, Isaac Levi, Russ Roberts, Jon Elster, many,many, many! https://twitter.com/AndyPeyton/status/1231488319671934979   Permalink 4:44 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb From Volume 2 of the technical Incerto: Probabilility, Risk, and Convexity. Vol 1 maps to The Black Swan, Vol 2 maps to Antifragile, Vol 3 to Fooled by Randomness & Big Data [so far] https://twitter.com/JosephNWalker/status/1231514700120252416   Permalink 4:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@JosephNWalker Taleb’s problem with Knightian uncertainty is that there’s no such thing as non-Knightian uncertainty: pic.twitter.com/wtvTsIUcDk Permalink 1:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@alexandersquats https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1078655258354741248?s=19   Permalink 3:27 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb TRUE JUSTICE If you really want diversity & protection of minorities suffering workplace prejudice, stop chromo-categorizing — that fake unempirical business. Hire unattractive people. They are the one suffering the most, & deprived of attention. Permalink 3:25 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mistakes: ɕeeb shd be bayy el ɕαrd should be l ɕαrd Permalink 12:14 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb MED PHILOLOGY DUJOUR The Nicene creed in Lebanese… except that these Maronites have the Filoque “L jeeye mn el ɕeeb w el ɕeben” = “qui ex Patre Filioque procedit” Brilliant except for the heresy! https://twitter.com/henrizaq/status/1231296337494396928   Permalink 11:55 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb L’invidia ha gli occhi e la fortuna è cieca Permalink 8:49 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Gross inconsiderate errors: 1) Ghosn didn’t order an espresso in Arabic, but in the Lebanese Semitic dialect, 3/4 of a language away from Arabic. 2) Beirut was not the “Paris of the Middle East” but the Paris of the Mediterranean. https://www.wsj.com/articles/carlos-ghosns-new-life-in-exile-11582347707?shareToken=st2e30ccfa64584bf696da2e691ecca6d7   via @WSJ Permalink 8:45 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Envy is impossible to conceal. It manipulates you; like a tattoo on your forehead, visible to others but not to you. Permalink 8:40 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A common mistranslation: \sigma is not necessarily volatility. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1231227077711552514   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl”>  pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl Permalink 7:46 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Only the hyperparanoid survive.” #RWRI https://twitter.com/richard49step/status/1231234461976735744   Permalink 7:12 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 7) Results are pouring in! For the Pareto IV (The semi Bell Shaped one-tailed power law. pic.twitter.com/ltRkllCOXR Permalink 3:22 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Taking a class on rationality and probability by @sapinker Pinker is equivalent to +Being taught foie gras preparation by a lifetime vegan. +Being taught random matrix theory by one of the Kardashians. https://twitter.com/FischerKing64/status/1230966699907674117   Permalink 1:40 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@EdmondShami That’s why you shouldn’t trust communists (since they call each other “rafiq”) The Bed of Procrustes, NNT pic.twitter.com/SyT1Bfpo4Z Permalink 1:11 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hilarious! https://twitter.com/INVESTMENTSHULK/status/1230872613297229824   Permalink 12:48 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@Extrachelle 1 essential secret of a good cook: Generosity. Stinginess destroys recipes. Permalink 9:58 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters It’s because reality unfolds over time, not over a statistical ensemble. @nntaleb just did a nice illustration of that, using Kelly-type arguments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1229799216312180739   Permalink 9:50 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters Speaking of insurance, here’s how Rothschild and Stiglitz modeled it in 1976. I think @mikeandallie would agree that Berkshire Hathaway would be bankrupt if they were to apply this theory to their insurance business. pic.twitter.com/tbNEzM2ibq Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 6) Predictably, for fat tails it is worrrrrrrrrrrrrrrse!!! pic.twitter.com/mDQgooVx7i Permalink 8:11 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Voila. Sans abonnement. pic.twitter.com/PJJlnm1Qjo Permalink 7:35 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 5) In continuous time: the lower bound for a real fair game, not a Mickey Mouse™ bet like this ignorant Thaler. pic.twitter.com/0xed0n6UQL Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La photo est horrrrrrrible. https://w.lpnt.fr/2363621t   #Postillon via @LePoint Permalink 3:53 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Je descends dans un hôtel à Paris où habitait André Malraux. Pas de plaque. Même les gens de l’hôtel ne le savent pas. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1230818293734346756   Permalink 3:47 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam They let people off Diamond Princess, put them on planes and busses and sent them home. Amazing they thought a 14 day group “quarantine” would help. Instead it spread infection in the group. Shows they don’t understand how infections work. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-two-australians-evacuated-from-diamond-princess-test-positive-in-darwin   https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1230681676617076736   Permalink 6:46 PM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) In other words a single bet per lifetime is linear, more than one bet requires compounding. Nudgeboy Richard Thaler must be stopped from messing with things he does not understand. Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Back in New York after 7 weeks absence. pic.twitter.com/hefmQDpmJy Permalink 5:39 PM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The problem with Bloomberg is not his competence; he has the charisma of a plate of reheated-but-lukewarm unsalted fried cauliflowers. Permalink 9:12 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It does not mean: 1) Take investment advice from anyone who doesn’t have to work for a living. 2) Never take advice from those who work (note the “has to”). I am glad many rigor vigilantes are correcting errors by commentators. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1230035639070056448   Permalink 8:04 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I have been watching reschedulings for 38 years, since the 1982 LatAm debacle. (Remember I specialize in financial crises). No airline had to worry. @dan_azzi should not say these things without some empirical rigor. Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@Lucas_Erik_ Via twitter and his books, @nntaleb has shown me more truth in a month than all my 4 years of college classes combined. He teaches you how to think about something in a way where you can apply it to a different subject entirely. Teaching how to fish instead of giving a fish. https://twitter.com/gnpm72/status/1229539283293409280   Permalink 1:59 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb @beirut_banyan Actually, 1. Permalink 1:06 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@mcsorley_pete “Of what use is a philosopher who doesn’t hurt anybody’s feelings?” —Diogenes of Sinope pic.twitter.com/xh5h2y5qve Permalink 9:29 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) The Mathematica file. pic.twitter.com/WjrSbCvule Permalink 8:07 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb How you *will* eventually go bust on a fair bet: Explaining the Kelly/Shannon/Thorp result & beyond. (& why nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_Thaler has a serious, serious problem, aside from his other mistakes ). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91IOwS0gf3g&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 8:05 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) My heuristic: if a podcast has had someone like Sam Harris @SamHarrisOrg on, I avoid both listening to & participating in, it. It may be imperfect but the trick cleans up scientism, BS, & absence of scholarship. My allergic reactions to BS have been exacerbated with time. Permalink 7:09 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb As I said above in the thread, IYI robin @robinhanson will not infect himself. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1229768012598796288?s=20   Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I did not podcast in 2019; will do 1 in 2020 w/ @EconTalker on “Uninformative (less politely, “BS”) metrics in social science” (stat under fat tails, correlation BS, IQ, etc.), largely bec. of long private 2-way conversations. Will cover the new tech book. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The reason:filtering. I don’t take chances; I block quickly. The minute I smell sloppy reasoning. https://twitter.com/ptbrodie/status/1229489047921287168   Permalink 4:13 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Academics are usually all talk: @robinhanson is a bullshitter; don’t expect him to go infect himself. https://twitter.com/0neof1/status/1229596442098053120?s=20   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 1 million depositors (erratum) Permalink 3:55 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. False claims on my behalf, @dan_azzi My point is quantitative: 12 Bil to pay next 2 y. If you don’t believe in miracles, you will certainly default on a depleted treasury! Meanwhile $4 bil to be paid for rich bondholders satisfy >1 billion depositors (# TK) https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1228983243657162752   Permalink 1:44 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@jaszo “Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star.” -@nntaleb Permalink 1:07 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@kantynho00 Thread by @nntaleb: Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality,exity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead o https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1229066756012085253.html   Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb East Med Philology du Jour: Today is the day of Theodorus of Tyre. Did you ever wonder why the names Atallah and Atiyeh (as in Michael Atiyah) are only used by Levantine Christians)? Theodorus = gift of God. Atiyeh is the Canaanite version of Atallah Note also: Dorothy. pic.twitter.com/3ArgpYsZrt Permalink 4:18 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3ashu natrin? Ken lézeém n3mol rescheduling bi kénun 2bl l Eurobond l sebe2. 3ajjlo ya shabeb 2abl ma tkhrab aktar. https://twitter.com/neematfrem/status/1229045586739027973   Permalink 6:50 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Discovering Permalink 5:35 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Can you explain, @Fontainebleau ? https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1228819678543347712   Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21   https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1229060502984306689   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21   https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Same with bailouts. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1229070350308257792   Permalink 3:26 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari is a quack. https://twitter.com/GonzaQG/status/1229161201000730626?s=20   Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari’s public activities now occupy a staff of twelve. Mine: staff of 0. Why? Simply, I don’t do speaking and interviewing, etc. Except when very bored. pic.twitter.com/3fOdMwjOAI Permalink 1:44 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Indeed my dimenionality/teleology argument converges to the Hayekian argument. https://twitter.com/luciansusanu/status/1229092373176692737?s=20   Permalink 9:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “If something looks irrational —and has been so for a long time —odds are you have a wrong definition of rationality.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) Human societies are multiscale: the properties of single individuals *do not* predict those of groups, something he never got with the selfish gene BS. Permalink 7:36 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality, complexity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead of time *what* to select for. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1228943686953664512   Permalink 7:35 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) For instance Seneca’s fortune was 300M sesterces, which translates into 75 M dinarii… It takes yeaaaaars to clean up these details. pic.twitter.com/1kNHASqgej Permalink 6:17 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Also used the wrong currency (“dirarii”), etc. Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The INCERTO has been continuously modified for (so far minor) errors. 1) ANTIFRAGILE:”Roman engineers forced to sleep under the bridge” was qualified as apocryphal, but architects in Asia Minor were still accountable. 2) Some refs to psych. progressively removed. Permalink 5:25 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Which is my way of announcing that Skin in the Game is out in paperback. https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/0425284646/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1227931283898150912   Permalink 2:27 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Belittling a powerful asshole = iconoclast. Belittling a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 2:23 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Ignore the bullshitters and note: 1) Bond defaults are routine, in 99.9 % of cases creditors help work out a solution. Ignore lurid non-collaborative cases by scaremongers (Argentina). 2) Gold belongs to the BDL, not to the state, which is shielded. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 11:47 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mr. Hanson, I have called people “imbecile” for vastly more intelligent comments. Permalink 8:35 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Before bloviating on the consequences of a default, ask international bonds legal specialists like @camilleasleiman rather than bullshit artists. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Eurobond payment must NOT be made 1) Insult to depositors (lack of symmetry).Phoenicians 2700 y. ago had more sophisticated rules of risk sharing! 2) Harms OTHER bondholders 3) Default is inevitable; fail EARLY, come CLEAN Those advocating payment are shills or LUNATICS Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hanson, @robinhanson, you don’t seem to get what skin in the game means (nor do you have a faintest clue what betting is, another story). Skin in the game REQUIRES you to infect yourself NOW! https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228701801949671425?s=20   Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La bureaucratie est un outil pour couper certaines personnes des conséquences de leur actions. [Meilleure traduction] https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1228703994127712259   Permalink 7:38 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The best argument in favor of skin in the game: it can help us get rid of dangerous lunatics & riskblind IYIs before they harm the rest of mankind. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228400896507367424   Permalink 7:23 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The dynamics above show how nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it: + You MUST turn down most favorable odds because 1) life is not a one period model, and 2) they lead to total bankruptcy. + Mental accounting is an optimal strategy, not “irrational”. Permalink 6:42 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Fixed the colors in the graph pic.twitter.com/yn4BV6hOSS Permalink 4:53 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb What Samuelson didn’t get is that the Kelly point is the UPPER bound not necessarily the target –just as Shannon’s capacity. One can simply cut one’s portfolio in half and satisfy his criticism. https://twitter.com/migueldva/status/1228464540867682304?s=20   Permalink 5:14 PM – 14 Feb 2020

@PavelMordasov “It takes some humanity to feel sympathy for those less fortunate than us; but it takes honor to avoid envying those who are much luckier.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/kGuWIWOSBu Permalink 8:23 AM – 13 Feb 2020

@DrMichaelBonner ‘The Last Empire of Iran’ is now in print! https://twitter.com/gorgiaspress/status/1227608394497974274   Permalink 8:49 AM – 12 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Trust those who are greedy for money a thousand times more than those who are greedy for credentials.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:34 AM – 10 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sometimes you run in daily life into people who heap abuse on the internet: they cower. Absence of #skininthegame is a problem. https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1226523804148600834   Permalink 8:07 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Maybe is also a lack of #skininthegame on social networks… If you act as an asshole in real live you might get a punch in the face pic.twitter.com/NCICnykixp Permalink 7:10 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Maestro A. Al-Jallad @Safaitic offering me his book in a café in Columbus OH. pic.twitter.com/V52ewrEmGK Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matters are those who never had real world experience.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:14 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #Localism (The fellow is making me aware of my own aphorisms) https://twitter.com/talebwisdom/status/1226110049967394816   Permalink 6:15 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb We need more data but that’s the way to do it: estimations from reliable subsamples. https://twitter.com/aledeniz/status/1226103425508790275   Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Getting out of control https://twitter.com/srutunda/status/1226111375426170881   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@imleslahdin Left-Socialism-Brutalism Right-Traditionalist-Classical Polarizing. https://twitter.com/world_classico/status/1225942717374586882   Permalink 12:16 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@RonPaul Did you catch our interview with Democratic Party presidential candidate @TulsiGabbard? Find out what she thinks about her own party shutting her out of the debates: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk   Permalink 3:42 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Behavioral economics can be summarized as follows: “humans are idiots”. My message: “Maybe, but behavioral economists are most certainly idiots”. Permalink 3:03 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You guys are not getting the joke: I like NJ. It is just that I love NY and there are incompatibilities… Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@RonPaul The Only Person That Trump Should Fear On The Debate Stage Is Tulsi Gabbard Watch the whole show with @tulsigabbard here: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD”>  pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD Permalink 11:10 AM – 7 Feb 2020

Bureaucracy, Cliff Asness, Dictator, Monsanto, Boltan, Wolfram, Tillerson, Genealogy, Pi Day, Pompeo | Twitter

@nntaleb On a long flight to Tbilisi, a new book that opens the new science. pic.twitter.com/BUOcIL2tTA Permalink 12:16 PM – 28 Mar 2018

@LorenzTrader “Bureaucracy is a construction by which a person is conveniently separated from the consequences of his/her actions.” @nntaleb #SkinInTheGame pic.twitter.com/oOp9ZCpY14 Permalink 11:38 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@thackerpd I took exact measures of that depth here: Flacking for #GMOs How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media—and Discourages Criticism http://progressive.org/magazine/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media/   One of the reporters, @savortooth, has since inserted his nose even further up academic tuchus Permalink 7:14 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb L’7ayét wa2fét 3izz Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb On a scale of 0 to 100, paternity tests count as 99.99 and written/oral history count for .01. Apply that to populations. That’s plain stat/probability. We are seeing science in action. @iosif_lazaridishttps://twitter.com/iosif_lazaridis/status/978982852514770944   Permalink 6:18 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Book reviewers now have skin in the game: they are now unaware that their review can be turned into a test of reading comprehension –SAT style. For instance you can gauge @EasterbrookG’s reading comprehension level from this.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/944284554168291330   Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb It is the opposite of: religions avoiding to pronounce some holy words spelled out in full on the page. There is a demarcation between the holy and the profane, or the more or less holy and the profane. Permalink 4:33 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Aesthetics. I don’t like to see bulls**t fully spelled on a page, though I don’t mind seeing it on a screen.https://twitter.com/Javermas/status/978866618523639808   Permalink 3:43 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@axgry .@nntaleb is this what you mean by “skin in the game” ?https://twitter.com/BIUK/status/978587443069767680   Permalink 2:26 PM – 27 Mar 2018

@sharbatanu A packed hall listened to Mikhail Gromov quote Nassim Nicholas Taleb as “If you hear a ‘prominent’ economist using the word ‘equilibrium’ or ‘normal distribution’, just put a rat down his shirt” pic.twitter.com/YD4JV3QWts Permalink 10:38 AM – 27 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) There is this great theorem by Dubins and Savage, but I owe the much simpler games example to Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness who mentioned it in 1999 at lunch in NYC.https://www.amazon.com/How-Gamble-You-Must-Inequalities/dp/0486780643   Permalink 2:06 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 4) This is another example where pathologizing mental accounting by the Uberklueless and Verbiagiastic Richard Thaler @r_thaler fails: his model considers such path dependent strategies irrational. Permalink 2:01 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) The general principle #Antifragile is that when the payoff is bigger or you have your back to the wall you go for maximum variance (convexity). When the downside is bigger you go for minimum variance. Why explains why winning teams mark time and losing teams take risks. Permalink 1:50 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@mgpolitis Could be a variant of the theme “Η ημιμάθεια είναι χειρότερη από την αμάθεια”https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/977895229733916673   Permalink 12:43 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) Here is my solution, will generalize showing results across all regimes. Convexity (optionality) beats skills. Any time. #Antifragile @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/C1rBKtmIHW Permalink 12:14 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a grrrrreat case study by Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath showing OPTIONALITY matters more than skills: You can have >53% chance of winning when odds are against you is you have the option of switching between 2 (strategies, both of which have odds against you).https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/975844094374285312   Permalink 12:11 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@MaxMakz #incerto change lives. Thank you / Danke / Спасибо @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/ldqEWW0KkD Permalink 11:15 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@ShapsterD the times and @nntaleb on the same page for once? pic.twitter.com/dMH7xvkTkX Permalink 9:57 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@Cernovich Paging @nntaleb for his excellent article, “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority” https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15  https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/976872173523623936   Permalink 9:32 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The opposite of education isn’t ignorance but miseducation. Permalink 6:09 AM – 25 Mar 2018

@nntaleb That pill has to potential to transforming any regular person into an economist.https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/977641234192777216   Permalink 5:00 AM – 25 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Soul in the game. He died for the sake of others. RIP, with our prayers and greatest respect.https://twitter.com/Gendarmerie/status/977438206550474754   Permalink 3:50 PM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Where revealing that you have skin in the game violates the principle that one should not market virtue (except when taking risk, by taking risk).https://twitter.com/NicGeaman/status/977653272835223553   Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A simple (some say “nasty”) integral https://www.cut-the-knot.org/proofs/YetAnotherSimpleIntegral.shtml   #FigureThat #math #calculus ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TvFl0Ix20P”>  pic.twitter.com/TvFl0Ix20P Permalink 11:14 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@GMWatch Stop #Monsanto’s Secretary of State! Mexican corn products widely contaminated with GMOs & #glyphosate. And other news! https://mailchi.mp/2ee5e230eedd/daily-digest-351849   #gmo ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/kq5cN71V39″>  pic.twitter.com/kq5cN71V39 Permalink 10:45 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never met a Spanish grammar specialist.https://twitter.com/vinates/status/977569730860142594   Permalink 8:54 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Nothing wrong abt dismissing someone as a fool or a bulls***ter, i.e., not solid, not reliable in reasoning & conversation. But when someone’s viewpoint escapes a psychologist’s logic, he will impart some psychological cause to the divergence. Permalink 8:52 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Someone at dinner just asked me to define a “dictator”. Someone who doesn’t buy weapons from your government. Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@greekhistorypod Sicily – Land of the Phoenicians, via @GillianHovellhttps://muddyarchaeologistcouk.wordpress.com/2018/03/21/sicily-land-of-the-phoenicians/   Permalink 2:00 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@LorenzoWVilla In linea con quanto sostiene @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/istbrunoleoni/status/977186224426422272   Permalink 12:02 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved. BTW the technical SILENT RISK shows the plumbing behind The Black Swan. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html  https://twitter.com/dd_ann_61/status/976885542586667010   Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@SyrianLionesss Mothers day mass earlier this week in #Aleppo #Syria pic.twitter.com/ZxCGMV50OZ Permalink 7:54 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@chris_walker_ Inspired by @nntaleb, I tried cuttlefish ink pasta in Venice. I think it was the real thing! pic.twitter.com/zaln6IzAyP Permalink 7:14 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@thackerpd Spinning Science & Silencing Scientists: A Case Study in How the Chemical Industry Attempts to Influence Science https://democrats-science.house.gov/sites/democrats.science.house.gov/files/documents/02.06.18%20-%20Spinning%20Science%20and%20Silencing%20Scientists_0.pdf   Missed this House Report on disinformation created by #Monsanto operatives cc: @MariahCBlake @fastlerner Permalink 5:56 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@BrankoMilan My review of @nntaleb tetralogy http://glineq.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-importance-of-talebs-system-from.html   Permalink 7:13 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb One thing that struck me at NASA-JPL: these were scientists, many PhDs, but were not academics. It hit me that they were BS-free: from contact w/real world, w/results in the micro world. It takes a certain mindset to send a robot to Mars AND make it actually get there.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/976577262202966017   Permalink 6:37 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/976948306927607810   Permalink 4:11 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@JulianAssange 811 WikiLeaks files on John Boltan: https://search.wikileaks.org/?query=%22john+bolton%22+-sweep&exact_phrase=&any_of=&exclude_words=&document_date_start=&document_date_end=&released_date_start=&released_date_end=&include_external_sources=True&new_search=True&order_by=most_relevant#results   Permalink 3:58 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Out understanding of history would be much, much improved if “North Africa” was called “South Med” instead. Too many people think in words. Permalink 1:04 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Witness.https://twitter.com/ss_strength/status/976864370973134848   Permalink 9:59 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@noemie_issan Les honnêtes hommes, ça lit Montaigne et le Talmud. Un petit commentaire sur un narratif talmudique dans le dernier livre de @nntaleb “Jouer sa peau” https://twitter.com/noemie_issan/status/976833003837165569   Permalink 9:32 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@Jevaughn_Brown He ties ancient wisdom to modern insights with mathematical/scientific rigor while making it all accessible to the non-technical AND hilarious at the same time. Just incredible. Permalink 8:22 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb BS vendors usually write popular science/philosophy books, those that tell people what they want to hear. Non BS vendors write anti-popular science/philosophy, those that disturb the maximum number of people. Permalink 6:14 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Unpopular book here means the book should disturb a certain number of people. Permalink 6:07 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The point is not that Sarkozy took money from Gadhafi. The problem is the ingratitude: he tried to eliminate him right after. Ingratitude is the worst trait in a human being.https://twitter.com/AFP/status/976498827459997696   Permalink 6:04 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Ramp is the generator of konveksity. Permalink 2:56 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb BS vendors usually write popular science/philosophy books. Non BS vendors write unpopular science/philosophy. Permalink 2:54 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb JPL lecktchur on Antifragility and Konveksity, in 9 min. pic.twitter.com/E9tU0C17iK Permalink 2:52 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@DaliaGlickman Interjecting as his daughter – my father and Nassim were business colleagues and friends. My father just mentioned Nassim last week and cherished their conversations about all things financial and philosophical. Permalink 7:21 AM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Ended up hiking with @stephen_wolfram (& others at Bezos’ #Mars2018), in the snow on a steep mountain wearing flaneuring shoes (Italian moccasins without socks). pic.twitter.com/6OkwKrS3e2 Permalink 5:47 PM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 6) look at this idiot @marcgunther who fell for ithttps://twitter.com/marcgunther/status/976174470644805634?s=21   Permalink 1:35 PM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot get the open butterfly with sum of sigmoidal functions (they are closed at the ends), but you can with ramp functions. In other words, neural nets can now capture tails of distributions! Permalink 8:31 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) Some thoughts from the Bezos #MARS2018 conference. Why Machine learning methods are very intuitive for option traders. Captures functions better than sigmoids (binaries). pic.twitter.com/OVUYfLH235 Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@embracethetrend Few men who have a handshake worth trusting. I agree with @nntaleb on the importance of honourhttps://twitter.com/voteboudreau/status/975884957993271297   Permalink 7:27 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@The_Cyrenian I am Syrian. In Syria. The “rebels” you and @nikkihaley support have killed many of my friends, and six of my family members – the youngest being two-years-old. Both of you have done nothing but bring death and destruction to us – especially to my community – Syria’s Christians.https://twitter.com/statedeptspox/status/976090852241166336   Permalink 7:26 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Sorely missed. Permalink 6:44 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb RIP Rabbi Tony Glickman, who said “life is long gamma”. You will be missed.https://twitter.com/YUNews/status/975913856605310976   Permalink 6:40 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@TheStoicEmperor Steve Jobs had a very good understanding of @nntaleb’s crucial concept of “skin in the game.” pic.twitter.com/gybIDPWEPC Permalink 11:26 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Wolfram is a mathematician with skin in the game!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/975902401382170624   Permalink 6:12 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@lawrennd Very lucky to spend time with @stephen_wolfram and @nntaleb .. we’re talking about you @matthewsyed pic.twitter.com/FJOdg2HCZq Permalink 6:08 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@mvachhar Sadly this won’t be the last time this happens. No #skininthegame (@nntaleb) means that bad actors are not removed from the ecosystem, leading to bad outcomes over and over again. Permalink 11:22 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Advice given to any young person: “I can’t tell you what to do. I can tell who what I’ve done. I’ve instinctively never gotten into a zero-sum business, such as academia, sports, bureaucracy, etc. The mark of a zero-sum business is hierarchy.” (Academia is a quarter position.) Permalink 7:57 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@kunalb11 “Men destroy each other during war, themselves during peacetime.” ― @nntaleb Permalink 3:26 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Trading prices are minority rules, not average of opinions. If there is wisdom, it’s the wisdom of the minority.https://twitter.com/St011M1/status/975449942603988992   Permalink 12:14 PM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I agree, but social media makes it easy to counter mob with mob. Eventually neutralizes.https://twitter.com/naval/status/975438767283515392   Permalink 11:33 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I know how to select co-authors.https://twitter.com/drcirillo/status/975395548797767686   Permalink 9:45 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@LouisLebbos A few more examples of Beirut architecture from my trip last month pic.twitter.com/Do2HJZ8AOD Permalink 7:40 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Random Numbers And Obtuse Triangle https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ObtuseTriangleInSquare.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eSNkofIVp1″>  pic.twitter.com/eSNkofIVp1 Permalink 6:42 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@Extrachelle #Beirut balconies. pic.twitter.com/7AqTEUZZzR Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb For instance, for a linear payoff, if you predict an event priced at 1% probability, you can be wrong 99% of the time. For the same probability w/ a convex payoff, you can be wrong 999 times out of 1000 and still do very well. Permalink 2:47 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, the predictions that matter are those with a large payoff and little costs. If you predict what other people are predicting, you get nothing (but a nice paper track record). Monoculture works for blabbering academics, not traders & people in the real world. Permalink 12:50 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@HarryDCrane Forecasting is anti-fragile among IYIs. Bad forecasts lead to reverse engineering on how forecasts can be improved for next time — most discussion after election focused on improving for next time, instead of stopping w prediction snake oilhttps://medium.com/@HarryCrane/the-modern-day-snake-oil-salesman-2ca934cc2ab   Permalink 8:35 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame. Permalink 6:31 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@TimTravis2 Just finished reading the chapter in Skin in the Game about the michelin star restaurant versus just getting a pizza and was laughing hysterically because it is so true. Loving the book by the way. One of your best. Permalink 6:26 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb This was with spelt. Works. Permalink 5:49 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@ArcheRomaion Kinds of Greeks: Alexandrians Cosmopolitan, inquisitive, affluent. At the crossroads of civilizations, the flux only began with the founding of the city in 331 BC. Producing philosophers, scientists, theologians & industrialists, most were expelled to #Greece by Nasser in 1956. pic.twitter.com/fjuyCv1JdZ Permalink 5:04 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink. pic.twitter.com/dA9Wi9Ii8P Permalink 5:02 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@orestistsinalis Fantastic interview of @nntaleb with @RalphNader on #SkinInTheGame. It’s so good it makes you think deeper about the book. https://shar.es/1Lj8Dj   Permalink 1:08 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb No chi vuole la mamma carezza la bambina (sorry for the spelling, z3leni)https://twitter.com/z3leni/status/974999881633947648   Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) Effectively the “Monsanto troll army” is a shadow of its former self; either funding dropped or they got more careful. I am scheduled to talk to the German press abt Monsanto & meeting members of the board of Bayer in conjunction w/SITG pub in German. Permalink 6:34 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Debunk fake news, ESPECIALLY if they are on the side of your political opinions. It is the hardest thing to do. And make sure your correction of fake news is as vigorous as the inital annoucement. I dislike Gina Haspel & everything she stands for. But I put TRUTH first. Permalink 6:18 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@Sundaresaganesh @nntaleb a perfect Skin in the game – the last shot pic.twitter.com/h8qKPvzZF4 Permalink 4:07 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Armenians running for elections in Beirut. Wherever they go, Armenians give more than they take. pic.twitter.com/G0DnZGzAph Permalink 4:02 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@AlainPannetier pic.twitter.com/PXFfzI0FCR Permalink 1:11 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The man was destroying the IYI den of the state department. For the first time they had adult supervision.https://twitter.com/amconmag/status/974797462157316097   Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Here is an example of the Monsanto army.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/974737398277005313   Permalink 1:55 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I am aware of that, which is why I have been waiting before exposing Monsanto shills such as @keithkloor and @tamarhaspel when they are defenseless after the Bayer integration. Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) So far I’ve made lemonade out of lemons with my problem with Monsanto. The idea is to use their shills to sell more books. Remember it is typically rejects that become smear campaigners for Monsanto .http://gmwatch.org/en/news/latest-news/16581   Permalink 1:07 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) Monsanto has a policy of leaving nothing unanswered. There are stuff in the court papers.https://www.rt.com/usa/386858-monsanto-hired-trolls-court/   Permalink 1:00 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) As expected, looks like Monsanto Shills are retaliating against my stance ag Monsanto in #SkinIntheGame by gaming Amazon Reviews while claiming they are not shills. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R2S10CFLW3AP3Y/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=042528462X   Permalink 12:57 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb After the Pompeo disaster, is there a possible way to stop Bolton from getting the White House position? Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@vonLichtenfeld At jump school, the guys who folded our parachutes had to take one of them at random each week and use it for their own jump. Given +50 jumps was improbable based on physical req.s, this is the definition of SitG Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@MattPirkowski Couldn’t script a clearer example of @nntaleb’s concept of Skin in the Game. In fact, he’s mentioned the architectural responsibility codes of Hammurabi many times. This would mean death for the architects in question. Fewer bridges would collapse.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/974644470674112512   Permalink 10:41 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb It was obvious Assad had NO GAIN from using gas. Now they are getting it with SOME delay.http://www.newsweek.com/now-mattis-admits-there-was-no-evidence-assad-using-poison-gas-his-people-801542   Permalink 5:53 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The risk-based skeptical empirical approach to CLIMATE is here. pic.twitter.com/RupOpb3BUY Permalink 5:32 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Indeed, @clairlemon, you are undoing centuries of skeptical empiricism. One can approach our climate tragedy without SCIENTISM See our http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf  https://twitter.com/crISIS_mule/status/974617925549199360   Permalink 5:13 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@skiales He @nntaleb either has impecable timing ..! Or is a tails type of a guy..! Bring the engineers at spot where the dead bodies got collapsed by the bridge & well … #hamurabi the SOB’s RITE WHERE THEY committed the. heinous sin of a #skinlessgame #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/moniqueomadan/status/974478688346693632   Permalink 3:34 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@RonPaul ‘Skin In The Game’ – With Special Guest Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIi0eO_oN9U   Permalink 3:00 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@Sapere_vivere Reading the brilliant Skin In The Game by @nntaleb. Four little words that should be in the forefront of your mind when you think about human existence. Permalink 2:49 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 6) Mr @ImaraWaTijara, let me say it in one sentence” One single DNA test offsets 12 hours of b***ting. Gabish? Permalink 2:32 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) We have known since Ruffié and Taleb (1965) [my father’s hobby was scientific genealogy via blood markers] that Koura valley was heavily Macedonian/Western Cypriot & we can see it through DNA. Historians are convinved they can contest paternity tests with tons of verbal BS Permalink 12:05 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 4) As an example of how fabrications work: a Low-IQ Arabist below, @ImaraWaTijara is responding by inventing origins FOR ME and the Greek-Orthodox of the Koura Valley using bogus oral history, when DNA shows no Hawran stock in Koura & in MY OWN DNA (J2b).https://twitter.com/ImaraWaTijara/status/974295061683941377   Permalink 11:59 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel While doing some research into our piece, I found this gem from @nntaleb in the @nytimes Note that it was written…… in 2003! http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/07/business/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/PC1mPY7jP6″>  pic.twitter.com/PC1mPY7jP6 Permalink 11:38 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel Here’s one for all of us to chew on from @nntaleb: “every time you open your mouth in a public forum and you say something: * that is not risky or * is meant to improve your image and reputation, every time you do that you are COMPROMISING YOUR ETHICS.” Permalink 10:47 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb You can’t be an author without attitude; write on your own terms.https://twitter.com/johndurant/status/974167721045671936   Permalink 9:55 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@RonPaul Grab your seat belts! Today’s Liberty Report is joined by @nntaleb to discuss @nytimes bestselling book #skininthegame — and the “interventionists” braying for war! Live @ noon ET on http://youtube.com/ronpaullibertyreport   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wdx0mKmVkt”>  pic.twitter.com/Wdx0mKmVkt Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) The other interesting “hard science” discovery is that a) Modern Greeks are the same as ancient Greeks, b) Greeks are largely Anatolian, c) Canaanites are largely Anatolian. Minority rule chapter in #skininthegame : languages travel, genes not so much. Permalink 6:52 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience. Permalink 6:47 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) @PZalloua (Reich collab) showed Leb Shiites were of Phoenician ancestry, caused a shock, but now slowing building a Canaanite identity. I found from his databse that there is ~3% Arab genes in Lebanon & West. Syria. Arabist Historians s.a. Salibi are largely fabricators. Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb A Lebanese proverb: “If you give a fool a weapon, he will hurt himself”.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/974255026020519936   Permalink 5:13 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb THREAD 1) We are facing a complete and *sudden* rewriting of history using DNA, like paternity tests, disturbs linguists, historians, (recall the Mary Beard affair), archeologists, and Arabists.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/03/ancient-dna-history/554798/?utm_source=twb   Permalink 4:40 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@jordanbpeterson Did you notice, @JustinTrudeau, that a law-abiding Canadian citizen has been DENIED ENTRY by the UK? Do you think she’s more dangerous than the former ISIS fighters you rolled out the welcome mat for in Canada?https://youtu.be/odGiYJdFtE0   Permalink 11:07 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Happy Pi day –and, in the bargain, via Euler’s Identity. “The shortest path between two truths in the real domain passes through the complex domain.” ~ Jacques Hadamardhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/974019574088830976   Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@EmPee78 @nntaleb thank you for writing books that are meaningful pic.twitter.com/tSmzT7eOnp Permalink 3:01 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@RonPaul We are REALLY looking forward to having @nytimes multiple-time bestselling author @nntaleb joining us tomorrow Thursday live on the Liberty Report @noon ET on http://Youtube.com/RonPaulLibertyReport   Be there!!!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/974029403482189824   Permalink 2:11 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I will be discussing the point and inveighing against these depraved interventionistas w/o #skininthegame with @RonPaul and @DanielLMcAdams on Ron Paul’s channel tomorrow at noon. @RonPaulInstituthttps://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/973955597728088067   Permalink 2:08 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@HarryDCrane Data != information Data = information only if you understand it. Collecting more of something you don’t understand only leads to more confusion. Permalink 12:31 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A Trigonometric Identity for the Pi Day https://www.cut-the-knot.org/triangle/TrigonometricIdentityForAPiDay.shtml   #FigureThat #math #geometry #algebra ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/1VvPF4rtZk”>  pic.twitter.com/1VvPF4rtZk Permalink 11:30 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@JulianAssange My article on new US Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeohttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/julian-assange-the-cia-director-is-waging-war-on-truth-tellers-like-wikileaks/2017/04/25/b8aa5cfc-29c7-11e7-a616-d7c8a68c1a66_story.html?utm_term=.d32c33ee90fd   Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@rjboyle Someone anonymously gifted me a copy of latest book from @nntaleb. Thanks to whomever it may be! pic.twitter.com/UreVQHFIz1 Permalink 9:36 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/when-did-lebanese-christians-start-speaking-french-771603969932   Permalink 7:23 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Those in “Colonialism” a la Ed. Said/Arabism studies are Fabricators. The French spent 22 years in Lebanon as military mandate (Italo-French was Christians’ education) The Ottomans spent ~501y The Mamluks spent ~220 y The Arabs spent ~250-350 y WTF is this Euro “colonialism”? Permalink 6:03 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Achrafieh, Taleb Family 1923-1972 pic.twitter.com/Cbx4oqPesh Permalink 5:49 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb MACHINE LEARNING & FORECASTING Announcement: the M4 competition (Makridakis) is open. We will finally figure out how the various machine learning methods fare with time series, without the currently prevailing cherry-picking. https://www.m4.unic.ac.cy   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yjo9MJ987m”>  pic.twitter.com/yjo9MJ987m Permalink 4:09 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@WeAreLebanon Fascinating buildings in #Beirut By @elmaalouf #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/9cRyEYKdGS Permalink 4:02 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@Confusezeus “Foregone Conclusionism” explained – deserves a hashtag: spot the #foregoneconclusionismhttps://twitter.com/neontaster/status/973630518246957056   Permalink 4:37 PM – 13 Mar 2018

@DShaywitz Also from @nntaleb Antifragile: skeptical about Baconian model academia -> applied science&tech ->practice; favors tinkering model, see below (includes contrast w/his take on model 1). cc @JamesBessen pic.twitter.com/uccpgz6MxL Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@normonics 2 things about Pompeo evidenced by DARK act I very much DO NOT like 1) D act was about denying states the ability to determine their own law. centralizer. what is the point of electing a republican if a centralizer?might as well be a dem. 2) D act was a favor to MON-corporatist Permalink 9:14 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb This is a disaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaster.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/973540316656623616   Permalink 6:32 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Decorators are not users. #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/StephenFleming/status/973401515934195712   Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Our Page on GMOs http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 4:34 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto’s fraudulent claims. Show me papers on tail risks of GMOs. Show me.https://twitter.com/Preschel/status/973508207208431616   Permalink 4:17 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel Love this. @RalphNader ‘s host: “@nntaleb sounds a little…Republican.” @RalphNader: “You CANNOT pigeonhole him!!” Permalink 6:04 PM – 12 Mar 2018