Tag Archives: Sunstein

Manhattan, Ioannidis, NUCLEAR, Sunstein, FRAUD!!!!!, Thaler, Omar Sharif, Tetlock, Pinker, IQ, Playboy, BOOK PUBLISHING, Hagia Sophia | Twitter

Published on Jul 27, 2020
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
For transcript and links related to today’s episode: https://www.econtalk.org/nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-the-pandemic/

The Masks Masquerade

Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility

Face Masks May be Necessary and Sufficient to Stop Covid-19
An entrepreneur’s perspective on Nassim Taleb’s conclusions about face masks

Podcast Notes: The Pandemic, Power of Masks, Levels of Risk and More | Nassim Nicholas Taleb on EconTalk

How you will go bust on a favorable bet. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp)
Published on Feb 18, 2020
We explain the Kelly criterion and illustrate why “risk aversion” in Behavioral Finance is Micky Mouse(™) Science.

TLDR: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic A summary of the July 27, 2020 episode of EconTalk.

On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables (pdf)

@nntaleb Fireworks or ammunitions from the initial sparks. Stop the conspiracy theories, for Baal’s sake. No plane. Permalink 2020-08-04 16:38:01

@nntaleb Manhattan is dead & unflaneurable. Astoria Queens is more flaneurable: less pretentious & has much better Greek food, 30% blue collar customers instead of constipated book executives & philistines who read Harari. Even flaneuring can adapt well. Permalink 2020-08-04 14:33:56

@nntaleb Nikos Phililogos Permalink 2020-08-04 14:21:32

@nntaleb Scribe Permalink 2020-08-04 14:20:21

@nntaleb “Arabic”? WTF? Permalink 2020-08-04 14:19:29

@nntaleb Nobody noticed it is the Saint Petersburgh problem? Power law, if uncapped, with infinite mean. There is a Feller theorem about time to cross the origin following a Cauchy Permalink 2020-08-04 13:56:33

@nntaleb Corrected Permalink 2020-08-04 13:29:12

@nntaleb You can easily copy one line, no? Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:53

@nntaleb Typo: m=250/2 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:27:37

@nntaleb And if you cheat (“verify”) by using Monte Carlo you get the same. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:25:29

@nntaleb My solution: 8.3 Permalink 2020-08-04 13:23:16

@nntaleb Not “Greek” olive oil. Lebanese olive oil from the Koura valley, so only ½ Greek. Permalink 2020-08-04 13:03:21

@nntaleb Not quite, my friend. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:27:22

@nntaleb Ok, Ok, Quiz What is the expected longest run generated by a random 250 coin tosses. A run is defined as n heads or n tails. Permalink 2020-08-03 22:24:14

@nntaleb Actually, no. People mistake length of runs for average of runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:25:44

@nntaleb Thanks Zhuo. Visibly your hand one does not have long runs. Permalink 2020-08-03 19:03:08

@nntaleb Using a Markov chain to estimate the expected number of runs. The number of runs of 7 must bet ~2 Permalink 2020-08-03 18:59:00

@nntaleb Why don’t you go give advice to someone else? Permalink 2020-08-03 14:17:33

@nntaleb III A wise decision is one that is sound both prospectively and retrospectively, in both foresight and hindsight. Our best definition of #Precaution Permalink 2020-08-03 13:52:37

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-08-03 13:32:00

@nntaleb Our debate with Ioannidis,II Plus why “forecasting” and “evidence based” are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb HOW TO HANDLE A PANDEMIC Our debate with John Ioannidis. Plus why naive single point “forecasting” and “evidence based” methods are both unscientific and unwise under pandemics. Thanks to @pierrepinson @spyrosmakrid https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.16096.pdf Permalink 2020-08-03 13:12:24

@nntaleb You should detect by eyeballing. Permalink 2020-08-03 10:20:31

@nntaleb פה بالعبراني Permalink 2020-08-03 02:30:13

@nntaleb How many hours for $300? Permalink 2020-08-02 23:59:43

@nntaleb This is not quite a PL. Zifplots are insufficient. You need EVT to prove it. Would love to replicate. Permalink 2020-08-02 20:58:51

@nntaleb BM did not like this http://www.chialvo.net/Curso/UBACurso/DIA3/Papers/SOC1.pdf Permalink 2020-08-02 20:53:38

@nntaleb The sandpile story is controversial & supposedly Bak did not have a proof… Permalink 2020-08-02 19:57:42

@nntaleb Blocked the imbecile. He is just a photographer. Permalink 2020-08-02 19:13:37

@nntaleb I have an inside story of Mandelbrot on Per Bak Permalink 2020-08-02 18:44:27

@nntaleb SYSTEMIC RISK: non-diversifiable. You can in principle break-up into n reactors to get the needed risk diversification/prevent Chernobyl from being too large. Permalink 2020-08-02 18:13:10

@nntaleb Systemic = 1 block. Nuclear is in a diff category (non subexponential) Permalink 2020-08-02 16:57:52

@nntaleb In Principia Politica, there is a rule: No institution without an expiration date. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:45:37

@nntaleb Voshart you imbecile this is how you get coloring, by comparison. An confirmed by genetics: Lybians looked no different from other Mediterraneans. You are an imbecile. Permalink 2020-08-02 15:42:59

@nntaleb He seems clueless about genetics. He is just a photographer using cultural notions. Many fail to get that Southern Mediterraneans are Western Eurasians (the Europe/Africa distinction is not accurate). Permalink 2020-08-02 15:39:28

@nntaleb Voshart, are you a geneticist? Permalink 2020-08-02 15:38:04

@nntaleb Went away recently Permalink 2020-08-02 13:36:59

@nntaleb Aspetta mi, vengo subito prima che la lasagna si raffreddi Permalink 2020-08-02 13:32:06

@nntaleb I will make it very simple for you: I am picking what method I like not the one you like and you can go fuck off. Simple enough? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:28:29

@nntaleb Dove? Permalink 2020-08-02 13:20:27

@nntaleb I am not saying NUCLEAR is not dangerous. It is in a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:35

@nntaleb I am not saying it is not dangerous. Just a different class of risk. Permalink 2020-08-02 12:15:05

@nntaleb NUCLEAR I NEVER said that nuclear energy was safe. I said that it does not fall under the Precautionary Principle as there is ~no systemic risk. Nuclear accidents are additive not multiplicative (unlike GMOs & viruses). The risk (for small reactors) remains local not systemic. Permalink 2020-08-02 11:27:10

@nntaleb Then why education? Now shd I get pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:40:26

@nntaleb Hi there Where did you get it from? Permalink 2020-08-02 01:28:24

@nntaleb Learning to cook from fresh dough. Mystery: Why did Sicily discontinue growing sumac? Permalink 2020-08-01 21:09:43

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuckoff and find yourself a hobby with “utility” before you lecture us? Permalink 2020-08-01 20:28:39

@nntaleb My shoulder bans me from deadlifting… Permalink 2020-08-01 19:16:26

@nntaleb Thanks! What’s best of the 4 options? Pro or Business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:15:56

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink 2020-08-01 19:12:46

@nntaleb Can you do these rooms in business? Permalink 2020-08-01 19:04:54

@nntaleb Charlie can students spontaneously create rooms? Permalink 2020-08-01 14:15:45

@nntaleb Mistake. This is NOT the inquisition. There were trials and sentences were delivered by a (lay) court. This is more like the period of terror during the French Revolution. Soon education will be ONLY delivered by special apolitical institutions like coding camps. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:51:02

@nntaleb We don’t care about costs. We need to be able to create breakout rooms. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:29:14

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-08-01 11:22:23

@nntaleb 80-100 Permalink 2020-08-01 11:20:05

@nntaleb I blame the NYT first. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:19:00

@nntaleb Please do not involve geopolitics, China-US or some conspiracy in a software discussion. The question is precise Zoom for Business of for Education. Do not compare to other methods. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:15:39

@nntaleb This is the Inquisition Permalink 2020-08-01 11:10:51

@nntaleb But a university affiliation is becoming a liability. All downside, no upside. Permalink 2020-08-01 11:08:22

@nntaleb Friends, for #RWRI 14, do you prefer Zoom for Business or Zoom for Education? Thanks Permalink 2020-08-01 10:45:33

@nntaleb No comment for now. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:28:39

@nntaleb That’s another matter. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:24:45

@nntaleb Fuck off Permalink 2020-08-01 02:18:08

@nntaleb Without verification… Anyone getting anywhere close to a US university is a moron. Permalink 2020-08-01 02:14:31

@nntaleb Ovadiah Permalink 2020-07-31 18:21:00

@nntaleb Hi Scott You are missing the CENTRAL point: 1) is fragile what does not like volatility everything concave is fragile And reverse: antifragile = convex between a and b. Permalink 2020-07-31 15:42:14

@nntaleb 5) METASTATIC BUREAUCRACIES If you want an illustration, here is one. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:55:15

@nntaleb 4) CREDENTIALIZATION And note how Tedros mentions Harvard to credentialize Sunstein, which wipes out his defects and ignorance of probability. https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1288951939334574080?s=20 Repeat after me: Delenda WHO est. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:11:30

@nntaleb Nassim, he is a professor in a business school. Intellectual fraud is for them business as usual. Permalink 2020-07-31 14:01:04

@nntaleb 3) The Collection of bureaucrats *who meet* for a living and failed to get the risks of the pandemic early on when WE warned, costs us TRILLIONS. Now what do they do? They ADD more bureaucrats like that fraud Sunstein. Institutions learn via bankruptcy. WHO must be DEFUNDED. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:49:22

@nntaleb 2) Do not forget that @CassSunstein made it irrational to worry about the risks of the pandemic in February! WHO must be closed. Permalink 2020-07-31 13:17:56

@nntaleb FRAUD!!!!! If there is a reason to shut down the WHO, here it is. Cass Sunstein is the poster child of pseudo-empiricism. He failed to get pandemics early on and missed on the difference between additive & multiplicative risks. FRAUD! Permalink 2020-07-31 13:15:18

@nntaleb No to the Bisri Dam project. It is economically a scam, and environmentally a DISASTER. Sign the Petition! Permalink 2020-07-31 12:52:38

@nntaleb You can return it to them and order here Permalink 2020-07-31 12:01:14

@nntaleb Can you return it and reorder from this? Permalink 2020-07-31 12:00:50

@nntaleb Where did you get yours? Permalink 2020-07-31 11:59:22

@nntaleb Here Permalink 2020-07-31 11:50:54

@nntaleb Yes, I was wondering. My SP02 is 98 when active, 94 when inactive and I thought there was a problem but realized there was none as the problem is the other way around. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:32:05

@nntaleb Hi, Who did you buy it from? We stopped the Book Depository. Permalink 2020-07-31 11:29:02

@nntaleb Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2020-07-31 11:23:40

@nntaleb Levantine ethics… Permalink 2020-07-30 23:01:08

@nntaleb Fucking moron what does my argument have anything to do with how conservatives behave? Permalink 2020-07-30 21:47:26

@nntaleb On citation rings Permalink 2020-07-30 21:31:44

@nntaleb Yes, I am a staunch advocate of masks (even when it was unpopular). But anyone gloating on the web about the death of Herman Cain is: + shabby + unprincipled + sordid + despicable De mortuis nihil nisi bonum Permalink 2020-07-30 19:53:21

@nntaleb Time to make this a nontechnical chapter in the new book, Vol2 of the Technical Incerto. How you will go bust on a favorable bet. Or why among other things @R_Thaler is a fraud. (Kelly/Shannon/Thorp) Permalink 2020-07-30 19:39:10

@nntaleb Interesting warning signs of Alzheimer: He stopped playing bridge ~15 years before he was diagnosed with Alzheimer. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:56:58

@nntaleb The point is that I show in my book evidence that economics is just a citation ring. “Prestige” is just a scam. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:37:23

@nntaleb The idea is: Get data. Derive kernel distribution at bandwidth 1 Get MI[1] Derive kernel dist at finer bandwidth Get M[2] You see convergence as gains are smaller and smaller except for \infty Permalink 2020-07-30 17:15:11

@nntaleb No, there is small effect, so long as you do not use points but distributions. You need perfect relationship = infinity. Permalink 2020-07-30 17:07:05

@nntaleb The difference between continuous (differential) entropy and discrete does not extend to MI. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:49:54

@nntaleb This is an imbecilic interpretation. Sorry I block for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-30 16:45:38

@nntaleb Something everybody knows Permalink 2020-07-30 16:10:49

@nntaleb The idea is “is it more useful than temperature”? Permalink 2020-07-30 15:53:22

@nntaleb You’ll never grasp voting patterns & political positions of millennials unless you recognize that a new graduate in about anything theoretical (Bachelor, Master even PhD) earns less than a slightly trained plumber, truck driver, or a carpenter. Reflect & see why Univ. going bust. Permalink 2020-07-30 14:00:49

@nntaleb Many other approaches. Thanks, friends. Permalink 2020-07-30 13:44:54

@nntaleb True Permalink 2020-07-30 12:38:16

@nntaleb He was Levantine. Greek Orthodox. Permalink 2020-07-30 12:18:27

@nntaleb One approach Permalink 2020-07-30 12:09:57

@nntaleb This plus coffee helps you to wake up. [Reminder: non-math related cute comment = block] Permalink 2020-07-30 11:53:13

@nntaleb Genetics show the mummies were Levantine Permalink 2020-07-30 11:04:26

@nntaleb Can detect disease not health Permalink 2020-07-30 10:32:51

@nntaleb FACT DU JOUR Omar Sharif (born Michel Dimitri Shalhoub), an actor with brains: + Elite bridge player + Fluent >5 languages + OK in Greek (like many Alexandrians) + Degree in mathematics + Did not socialize w/actors (except. romance w/actresses) Permalink 2020-07-30 10:31:30

@nntaleb So far I haven’t called anyone a fraud who didn’t turn out to be a fraud. Permalink 2020-07-30 10:10:53

@nntaleb Many people, including some doctors, don’t seem to get what a filter means. https://twitter.com/aashiq/status/1288643170058764289?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-30 02:13:35

@nntaleb Did anyone think SPO2 as instant (5 seconds) filter for Covid-19? Isn’t there more signal than with temperature? Permalink 2020-07-30 00:46:39

@nntaleb The debate with John Ioannidis On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables, with @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Latest version Permalink 2020-07-29 22:08:33

@nntaleb I revise the book every time you read it. Permalink 2020-07-29 21:42:57

@nntaleb ? no idea. Permalink 2020-07-29 20:22:39

@nntaleb Was looking for your address to mail you the book. Permalink 2020-07-29 18:52:20

@nntaleb Pour commence, Argth la Arg tangente hyperbolic, la reciproque de la tanh n’est pas ½ Log… Permalink 2020-07-29 15:22:01

@nntaleb Cet apres-midi. Permalink 2020-07-29 15:12:09

@nntaleb ECONTALK with @EconTalker https://youtu.be/CyOsUbK8PiE via @YouTube Permalink 2020-07-29 15:08:19

@nntaleb Imbecilic remark. What does democracy have to do with your own house? Democracy is about voter participation not letting people troll your private feed. Permalink 2020-07-29 14:22:04

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/ndehouche/status/1288347895993753600 Permalink 2020-07-29 12:59:52

@nntaleb You need to de-discretize your calcs. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:49:24

@nntaleb More “complicated” in statistical domains. Permalink 2020-07-29 12:29:01

@nntaleb And >2 m people visiting and commuting daily Permalink 2020-07-29 12:06:21

@nntaleb For every person you block, you get 10 new followers. Why? Because the quality of your thread improves markedly; comments are worth reading. Protect your thread. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:43:45

@nntaleb In cities, indeed. Permalink 2020-07-29 00:34:38

@nntaleb Διόρθωση: Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο της *ελληνικής γλώσσας* στο Zoom (Current level: Koiné) Σας ευχαριστώ όλους Permalink 2020-07-29 00:13:37

@nntaleb DM please. Thanks Permalink 2020-07-29 00:04:54

@nntaleb Could be 2 separate problems. The old must not pass on charges… Permalink 2020-07-28 22:28:42

@nntaleb Great Summary Permalink 2020-07-28 22:04:09

@nntaleb For a citation, I had to get a copy of @PTetlock’s (🐁”Phil the rat”) *Superforecasting* & it is worse than I thought, from his work. [Co-author is a shill/lobbyist paid by large corporations to play down their “risk”] It has major, major mistakes & flaws. What to do? Permalink 2020-07-28 21:21:25

@nntaleb I peer review ALL my work one way or another. Permalink 2020-07-28 21:11:34

@nntaleb Additive & multiplicative Risks should never be compared to one another. Multiplicative => fat tails. We have limited the precautionary principle ONLY to multiplicative risks: + Pandemics (only 72 in history) + Genetic modifications spread in nature Permalink 2020-07-28 21:09:00

@nntaleb The way it works: readers read what a reliable friend recommends, etc. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:32:49

@nntaleb Hi there Can you return it back to them? Further instructions to follow. Permalink 2020-07-28 20:16:34

@nntaleb My experience since “Skin in The Game” is to leave it to social media: genuine readers commenting for potential genuine readers. No more critics who filter & decide what *lesser* readers should like or avoid. My books are not sent to the media & “intellectuals”. F*** them. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:58:41

@nntaleb Mush me2lé! Mshwé! W iza me2lé bzeit zeitun msh mazolla (bi fakkru atyab bil mazolla) Permalink 2020-07-28 19:45:06

@nntaleb I block for sophistry. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:25:42

@nntaleb Shipping next week. But if in a rush, cancel and get this immediately. Permalink 2020-07-28 19:02:52

@nntaleb Plugged out (injury) so just low weights. Permalink 2020-07-28 18:41:18

@nntaleb On it Permalink 2020-07-28 18:36:36

@nntaleb Once in a while, the reverse helps. Permalink 2020-07-28 17:47:14

@nntaleb How strong are both of you now? Permalink 2020-07-28 16:45:36

@nntaleb I tried 5 sets of 10, doing math btw sets. Permalink 2020-07-28 16:21:56

@nntaleb Takes a week to know the benefits Permalink 2020-07-28 15:34:21

@nntaleb Separate day Permalink 2020-07-28 15:33:12

@nntaleb Also 5 sets of 10 presses Permalink 2020-07-28 15:28:43

@nntaleb Did you try the 5 sets of 10 deadlifts? Permalink 2020-07-28 15:24:31

@nntaleb Necessary Permalink 2020-07-28 14:21:16

@nntaleb My problem with him. Permalink 2020-07-28 12:18:41

@nntaleb This was promoted in my feed. These ideas that are supposed to help your life destroy it. If a book can be summarized it’s not a book; if you get something in 15 minutes it is not worth getting. Permalink 2020-07-28 11:54:26

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Where? Permalink 2020-07-28 11:44:27

@nntaleb of ours Permalink 2020-07-28 03:02:05

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Not at all. The argument is about convexity. Permalink 2020-07-28 02:00:55

@nntaleb Haha Campaign started in March. Permalink 2020-07-28 01:46:08

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile, being “right” means agreeing with you? Permalink 2020-07-27 23:49:26

@nntaleb You are clueless. Permalink 2020-07-27 23:41:43

@nntaleb Attitude? What “attitude”? Permalink 2020-07-27 20:39:36

@nntaleb Will restock up next week or but meanwhile try @zachobront’s link. Permalink 2020-07-27 20:26:38

@nntaleb OK, émtin? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:59:54

@nntaleb Leish ma bte3zemné ana? Permalink 2020-07-27 19:54:55

@nntaleb A reminder from PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-27 19:09:08

@nntaleb Your statement is MORONIC. As you get more information & granularity you target your measures tfor costs and efficacy Permalink 2020-07-27 18:37:52

@nntaleb I wonder why the cancel culture does not go after the chain of retractions instead of innocent idiots like @sapinker Permalink 2020-07-27 18:08:09

@nntaleb “National IQ” is practically an academic fraud. But the fact it went for so long is quite shocking. Permalink 2020-07-27 18:01:20

@nntaleb @ndehouche Permalink 2020-07-27 17:53:16

@nntaleb Squares Permalink 2020-07-27 17:21:25

@nntaleb Reread our paper. Explained there. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:58:28

@nntaleb We have answered that with our degree of fattailedness of certain class of events >>> all others, hence it is not frivilous and generalized worry. Permalink 2020-07-27 16:52:25

@nntaleb I block idiot. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:41:29

@nntaleb NOTHING to do with Regime switching. Permalink 2020-07-27 14:20:21

@nntaleb Was it Amazon or Scribe? Permalink 2020-07-27 14:19:20

@nntaleb I blocked him. I block idiots. Permalink 2020-07-27 13:09:58

@nntaleb It is not the same problem and this is not a highshool problem. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:43:40

@nntaleb Assuming it is an error… Thanks! will investigate. I am always worried when no errors are revealed. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:21:01

@nntaleb The distribution is Uniform below 1. Very very strange. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:16:28

@nntaleb The distribution is uniform below 1 ! Permalink 2020-07-27 12:15:37

@nntaleb Great counterintuitive result in probability. Permalink 2020-07-27 12:10:50

@nntaleb The article is for scientists not for politically driven imbeciles like you. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:13:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-27 02:06:15

@nntaleb Cancel and use our link. Ships immediately. Permalink 2020-07-27 02:04:47

@nntaleb And it feels different: you pull from the nape of the neck Permalink 2020-07-27 02:01:04

@nntaleb Yes Permalink 2020-07-27 01:59:20

@nntaleb É. Koyné ba3ref shwayy. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:19:36

@nntaleb Here it is more, as it is 90% of the 10 max Permalink 2020-07-27 01:18:04

@nntaleb Grazie. Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:11:40

@nntaleb Also, for variery, tried 10 reps deadlift, 5 times today, and the same with presses yesterday. Feels great, like a sprint. Watched elevated hearbeat and saw it crash. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:08:19

@nntaleb That’s the work equivalent of intermittent fasting. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:05:18

@nntaleb No comparison. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:03:45

@nntaleb Much simpler to cut calories. I reach ketosis eating pasta when I do OMAD. Permalink 2020-07-27 01:02:34

@nntaleb Haven’t practiced in 40 years! Permalink 2020-07-26 21:53:21

@nntaleb Rispondera domani. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:51:44

@nntaleb Babbler, not speaker. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:49:50

@nntaleb Αγαπητοί φίλοι και φίλες, Ψάχνω έναν Έλληνα δάσκαλο στο Zoom Permalink 2020-07-26 21:45:10

@nntaleb Link? Permalink 2020-07-26 21:19:54

@nntaleb He never understood convexity. But cities are Lindy by virtue of location. Permalink 2020-07-26 21:17:40

@nntaleb Traders Permalink 2020-07-26 21:15:09

@nntaleb Cities when not monstrously large. Size is bad. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:49:29

@nntaleb In French, same thing. “Valeurs propres”. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:44:20

@nntaleb CITIES ARE FRAGILE Flaneured around NYC for a day. I spent 2/3 of my life in the area. Saaaaaaaad. Idiots claiming cities “more efficient” don’t realize the concavity/fragility to shocks. See #Antifragile: Rome went from 2.2M to few 100K & took >1500 years to come back. Permalink 2020-07-26 20:06:55

@nntaleb The conductor of the USJ (Jesuit Univ.) chorus in Beirut is a Lebanese woman (I assume Muslim from her name). https://twitter.com/USJLiban/status/1287462673551175680 Permalink 2020-07-26 19:30:44

@nntaleb The rarest (and most valuable) thing on this planet: a clear mind. Permalink 2020-07-26 16:59:15

@nntaleb After a lull, research is undergoing a back-migration to the land of grape leaves, thyme, and olive oil: the Republics of the Eastern Mediterranean. Thanks @polemitis for these ambitious projects; more to come. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:28:03

@nntaleb False negatives are a function of contageousness. Permalink 2020-07-26 15:18:39

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-26 14:03:50

@nntaleb Another misunderstood convexity: frequent testing beats precision. A solution is STARING at us. “Evidence based” idiots can’t easily get it because, as with MASKS, they can’t understand cheap alternatives. Permalink 2020-07-26 12:01:04

@nntaleb Cristo in Italiano e Francese (Montecristo, Monte Cristo) Permalink 2020-07-26 10:37:25

@nntaleb Fi PDF? Permalink 2020-07-25 20:31:05

@nntaleb My friend, not the squid ink sauce. Colored pasta. Permalink 2020-07-25 19:03:46

@nntaleb COVID: A central ethical point: intergenerational liability. Like many central points, goes to the footnote. Permalink 2020-07-25 15:38:11

@nntaleb I avoided mentioning Shiism because it is not clear to me. But for Alawis, it is. Permalink 2020-07-25 14:54:30

@nntaleb Imbecile White != Nordic Permalink 2020-07-25 14:41:41

@nntaleb A gracious and very scientific debate with Ioannidis et al., @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo We add: 1- How individual risks do not map to collective risks. 2- The False Dichotomy economy/disease mitigation. For comments (submitting today) Permalink 2020-07-25 12:14:08

@nntaleb 2) Some religions allow “Taqiyya”, i.e. concealing one’s creed or modifying it to the outside: Gnostic religions, Alevis, Alawis, Druze. Never Sunni Islam or Greek Orthodoxy. Religious history becomes muddled. Early East-Med Christians would rather die than deny their religion. Permalink 2020-07-25 11:44:32

@nntaleb BS Permalink 2020-07-25 11:38:36

@nntaleb No. DNA has not changed. Permalink 2020-07-25 10:59:20

@nntaleb Was invited to debate him. Permalink 2020-07-25 01:07:30

@nntaleb Taqiyya! Permalink 2020-07-24 22:53:31

@nntaleb The Marranos were nonChristians who upon the inquisition faked Christianity to aboid persecution. Academic Marranos fake it to avoid being cancelled. Some SJW Marranos will secretly vote Trump. Permalink 2020-07-24 22:47:10

@nntaleb Wrong, it is linear Permalink 2020-07-24 21:47:28

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 20:10:08

@nntaleb Yes, it looks much more elegant in CDF Permalink 2020-07-24 19:37:00

@nntaleb We are debating Ioannidis, thanks to @pierrepinson and @spyrosmakrid Our final answer to him was just completed, to post soon. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:34:53

@nntaleb Not the same thing. I was looking for the density, not the CDF. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:29:14

@nntaleb They should cut the “arabic”, to TUnision, Algerian, etc. Permalink 2020-07-24 19:26:28

@nntaleb Voila Permalink 2020-07-24 17:19:59

@nntaleb Yes, sums of Beta distributed B[1/n,1], with a trick. for n=2, pi/4, verifying the general formula. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:16:53

@nntaleb @PZalloua and I will join the U. (soon). We will force them to change the titles: The Prince in Italian, The Republic in Greek, all in the ORIGINAL language. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:08:36

@nntaleb Right I misread X instead of X^n. It is one transformation before. Permalink 2020-07-24 14:03:18

@nntaleb CORRECTION: S^n-1 in numerator Permalink 2020-07-24 13:43:15

@nntaleb Application Permalink 2020-07-24 13:42:35

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-24 13:39:33

@nntaleb Lyom! Min jéyé? Permalink 2020-07-24 13:13:58

@nntaleb Yes, imbeciles. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:54:20

@nntaleb Voila. Permalink 2020-07-24 12:53:14

@nntaleb INEQUALITY DU JOUR This one is easy enough for morning coffee. Helps start the weekend. [Non-math commentators, please do not pollute the thread] Permalink 2020-07-24 12:15:18

@nntaleb His wife is native Syrian speaking from Turkey. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:28:59

@nntaleb Doesn’t look Lebanese at all. Permalink 2020-07-24 11:15:48

@nntaleb It was never inside the article Permalink 2020-07-23 22:35:48

@nntaleb OK Permalink 2020-07-23 22:28:40

@nntaleb I can put you there. Give me a picture. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:27:26

@nntaleb A Dutcgg photographer clueless about population genetics. Permalink 2020-07-23 22:20:21

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-23 22:17:31

@nntaleb He was Med that’s not Middle Eastern Permalink 2020-07-23 22:16:10

@nntaleb Insufferable… with some… Permalink 2020-07-23 21:47:29

@nntaleb Completamente Permalink 2020-07-23 16:04:50

@nntaleb Which author? Permalink 2020-07-23 11:56:46

@nntaleb And remember the PDF is Free https://researchers.one/article/2020-01-21… https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-23 01:38:29

@nntaleb Unwavering in friendship, unwavery in enmity. Permalink 2020-07-23 01:36:00

@nntaleb Struck a deal Permalink 2020-07-22 16:12:18

@nntaleb That people who asked your type of question should NOT read the book. Permalink 2020-07-22 16:01:13

@nntaleb I was irked at the framing by the NYT Permalink 2020-07-22 15:54:08

@nntaleb Friends, Here is a link where you can order STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe/Asia) should be under $49.95 with the reduced shipping [Next 2 weeks]. https://thescribestore.com/products/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb And remember the PDF is Free https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21 Permalink 2020-07-22 15:53:09

@nntaleb Yes, the outcome & her end “position” is not the question. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:48:15

@nntaleb Actually worse: he was bad to OLD slaves. Permalink 2020-07-22 15:23:05

@nntaleb “Synchronous belief” Permalink 2020-07-22 14:20:40

@nntaleb I like “Mediterranean Studies” or Ancient World Studies since the pillars were Babylon + Egypt Permalink 2020-07-22 14:03:33

@nntaleb Excellent. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:56:20

@nntaleb There is another one, but yours is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:35:47

@nntaleb I saw a commentary on Deuteronomy. There is another one by Rashi but still deciphering. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:24:31

@nntaleb No, imbecile. She was bigottering IN THE article, even if she did not cancel him. Permalink 2020-07-22 13:18:29

@nntaleb 4) Midrash Sefre. Rabbi Yossi HaGalili: אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:14:51

@nntaleb אמר רבי יוסי הגלילי, וכי תעלה על דעתך, שאדם הולך אצל שופט שלא נמצא בימיו? אלא שופט שהוא כשר (ומוחזק) באותן הימים. היה קרוב ונתרחק – כשר. [דבר אחר, אין לך אלא שופט שבימיך.] Permalink 2020-07-22 13:08:44

@nntaleb There is something YOU are not getting, aside from your defective anachronistic reasoning: the NYT DOES NOT publish stuff outside very very narrow parameters (I have 5 Op-Eds there). Permalink 2020-07-22 12:41:17

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:37:20

@nntaleb Thanks but when did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-22 12:11:21

@nntaleb They filter Op-Eds, do refuse mine systematically. I published 5 Op-Eds there in the past when the opinion was lined up to theirs. My point isn’t the opinion but the very idea of having to debate canceling a past figure. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:53:53

@nntaleb 3) The Wahabis destroyed ancient ruins in Saudi Arabia (including Islamic ones) to “prevent” idolatry. Soon we will be bulldozing ruins built by slaves (Great Pyramid/Coliseum), then structures built by labor w/o medical benefits, then those by nonvegetarian architects. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:38:10

@nntaleb (Yes I know the NYT ends up “opposed” to the idea of “cancelling Aristotle”, but the mere fact that they suggest the possibility …) Permalink 2020-07-22 11:22:31

@nntaleb 2/ By retrospective bigotteering, they will end up canceling ALL their ancestors, 99.9% of the contents of libraries and any institution older than 5 years will eventually end up canceling itself. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:17:01

@nntaleb Exactly. Permalink 2020-07-22 11:09:01

@nntaleb Any reference? Permalink 2020-07-22 11:06:37

@nntaleb The NYT suggests cancelling Aristotle. This is retrospective bigotteering; it implies moral values DO NOT evolve. People need to be judged with respect to the morals OF THEIR OWN TIME. (But we can be harsh w/Napoleon who reinstated slavery.) Permalink 2020-07-22 10:53:05

@nntaleb Bingo, Nassim. Saudi/Gulf people despise Levantines and Maghrebis, consider them “impure”. Permalink 2020-07-22 10:36:24

@nntaleb OK same ting Permalink 2020-07-22 00:58:07

@nntaleb Squid ink. A lot of squid ink. Permalink 2020-07-22 00:22:47

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-21 23:58:43

@nntaleb Disagree. CI says roughly you cannot build a function to project over n steps without n-1, and n-1 without n-2. Non analytic, no derivatives, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 23:32:20

@nntaleb TeXpad Permalink 2020-07-21 23:06:26

@nntaleb Alla yer7ama. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:33:18

@nntaleb Tell them Nice try. Permalink 2020-07-21 21:06:58

@nntaleb #RiadPonzi might manage to escape justice for a while, but… where is he going to go? Nice to see one’s villains in a cage, from which they can’t get out. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:30:05

@nntaleb Something tells me that the risk is dose-related, so fewer deaths in the summer, mistakenly attributed to the unavoidable mutation. Permalink 2020-07-21 20:01:20

@nntaleb No cream. Just foam from the beans. Permalink 2020-07-21 19:19:40

@nntaleb The olive smell is intentional. This is the first probability book ever sold in Med grocery stores and luxury olive oil stores. Permalink 2020-07-21 18:46:55

@nntaleb You have the knack of posting videos of me with 20 kg more. Permalink 2020-07-21 17:21:07

@nntaleb Don’t worry if the Lebanese judiciary is frozen. The FT is on the job. This is today. Not a good day to be #RiadPonzi https://www.ft.com/content/d2d63b9b-9669-4ec0-93e9-ed97cbeb9261 via @financialtimes Permalink 2020-07-21 16:54:51

@nntaleb It is all starting now for Lebanese Central Bank Governor #RiadPonzi; we had to wait 10 m after I exposed him at USJ. He tried (& failed) to smear me (but hurt some of my friends) Being #vindictive, I manifest my elation watching the predicted fall of a villain & personal enemy. Permalink 2020-07-21 16:44:19

@nntaleb I don’t think so. Here is the PDF Permalink 2020-07-21 16:04:54

@nntaleb NY Permalink 2020-07-21 16:01:53

@nntaleb Where? Permalink 2020-07-21 14:58:17

@nntaleb We have a note on country IQ to write. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:53:37

@nntaleb THINGS I LEARNED IN 2020 @rorysutherland told me that working outside, in a garden or in a park doesn’t feel like work. So long as it is outside. Works! Trying it for stuff that is *work* & requires colossal effort: s.a. reading emails from NJ, comments from referees, etc. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:37:23

@nntaleb We knew “nudge” (Thaler and Sunstein) relies on a buch of severe errors in probability. It is actually worse: vastly non-empirical claims. Permalink 2020-07-21 14:04:21

@nntaleb Must be Lebanese, Tiyan is Semitic (Tyan = bird in Lebanese, Tuyyoyo = Arab in Syriac) and not found in French. Plus look at the picture Permalink 2020-07-21 12:56:07

@nntaleb I block imbeciles. Sorry. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:27:28

@nntaleb The same people who worry about “costs” of mitigating the pandemic spend trillions on weaponry “for insurance”. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:15:20

@nntaleb Not segregated in the modern sense. Town vs country, educated vs uneducated. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:09:09

@nntaleb Same tools same coffee grind. Never forget cold water after every sip, the East-Med way. Permalink 2020-07-21 12:05:47

@nntaleb @ndehouche can give you lists, St Augustine being the most known Permalink 2020-07-21 11:31:40

@nntaleb How much $$do they charge? Permalink 2020-07-21 11:03:20

@nntaleb How much is Amz UK? Could be OK Permalink 2020-07-21 10:57:49

@nntaleb Indeed the only podcasts I do is with @EconTalker as, over time, I learned refined economic reasoning from him & developed arguments over a 13 y conversation. Permalink 2020-07-21 10:53:56

@nntaleb Vivi in italia? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:07:54

@nntaleb In 2 or 3 days there will be a link to ship to Europe at minimal additional cost. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:05:48

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-21 01:04:54

@nntaleb Grazie. Impari qualcosa ogni giorno. Permalink 2020-07-21 01:02:53

@nntaleb Fuck, no. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:57:48

@nntaleb Which is what I asked @Normonic, no? Or is it different when it is not a price, where you use the plural? In Fr it is “combien” for both Permalink 2020-07-21 00:56:37

@nntaleb In a store how you say “how much”? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:50:54

@nntaleb When you ask for a price, you say “quanto” or “quanti”? Curious Permalink 2020-07-21 00:32:52

@nntaleb You are debating someone I’ve blocked for serious defects in thinking. So keep that in mind when you get spurious arguments about what is or what is not “native”. Permalink 2020-07-21 00:29:33

@nntaleb You mean Central Med. Sicily = Central Med Permalink 2020-07-21 00:22:58

@nntaleb Quanto? 35? Permalink 2020-07-21 00:18:46

@nntaleb That’s the narrative used against Palestinians and used by the French to keep Algeria. Permalink 2020-07-20 22:51:32

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-20 21:38:58

@nntaleb We had 6x capacity, 2 y waiting list. Permalink 2020-07-20 21:22:27

@nntaleb 3indak nbid w Nero di Sepia. Shu baddo l wa7ad gheir shi? Permalink 2020-07-20 20:47:30

@nntaleb 3inna RWRI Permalink 2020-07-20 20:44:06

@nntaleb Mush kll l wa2t blebnén: 3 shor bil sené Permalink 2020-07-20 20:36:05

@nntaleb Fuck, no. The Levant only 2. Different culture/origins/history. Permalink 2020-07-20 20:03:46

@nntaleb WTF do you mean “finally”? Permalink 2020-07-20 19:49:57

@nntaleb If the thing is linear y1=a x, y2=b x, it is the integral of the absolute difference Abs[(b-a) x]. If same sign, =(b-a)(x2^2-x1^2)/2, otherwise pick {x1,x2,x3} and use absolute. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:46:59

@nntaleb False dichotomy: it is an error to ignore that the pandemic itself has economic costs and make a trade-off between health and economics. Permalink 2020-07-20 19:26:50

@nntaleb OK OK libya Permalink 2020-07-20 18:31:03

@nntaleb Lybia and Tunisia had Arabic J1e coming in noncoastal areas because nomads could handle the conditions, similar to Arabis. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:29:21

@nntaleb Most in the North did until the 1600s speak a version of it. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:27:41

@nntaleb Baddna zoom @Decafquest Permalink 2020-07-20 18:26:11

@nntaleb Straw man? leb dialect is treated as a “lahja” and descendant of Dus7a Permalink 2020-07-20 18:20:23

@nntaleb Easier to implement. Lebanese and Western Syrian. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:19:20

@nntaleb Konfirmed. Only Tunisia has Peninsular gene flow. Permalink 2020-07-20 18:17:39

@nntaleb heik 3am bi sir Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:33

@nntaleb Welcome! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:44:02

@nntaleb Ktir burokratiyyé honik. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:41:58

@nntaleb Hi Not recommended. Permalink 2020-07-20 17:40:21

@nntaleb Some historical facts: Algerians (particularly in coastal cities) spoke Latin for CENTURIES before the French learned it & bastardized it into what is now their language. Make the #SouthMed great again! Permalink 2020-07-20 17:39:04

@nntaleb Evidence: 1 min ago Permalink 2020-07-20 16:46:49

@nntaleb Crap. Permalink 2020-07-20 16:45:29

@nntaleb There is no teleological “forward”. There is one condition: very small steps locally (with occasional large payoffs). Permalink 2020-07-20 16:05:39

@nntaleb Interestingly Rimbaud worked for a Lebanese dealer César Tiyyan Permalink 2020-07-20 14:48:03

@nntaleb The difference betw Classical Arabic and Levantine is stark here. Proves one can reach yuuuuuuuuuge linguistic prowess in Lebanese. This poetry that is never taught in school, repressed by the Arabists & the “left” that aims to destroys nonelite/local languages. @Firsou 1/n Permalink 2020-07-20 14:47:22

@nntaleb Not the point: reverse engineering produces compounding errors under dimensionality. Permalink 2020-07-20 14:20:56

@nntaleb Ana tlmizak! Permalink 2020-07-20 13:58:02

@nntaleb Below 70 Permalink 2020-07-20 13:32:16

@nntaleb My explanation why those discussing genetics of intelligence don’t understand basic multivariate statistics. Also applies to the BS claims by @sapinker. Permalink 2020-07-20 13:04:29

@nntaleb Leish hal akl khara? Mshklét l balad 2yura mtlak. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:59:40

@nntaleb Ana mush mtl Twayné W 2asir, 3ndé 3ilé2at ma3 l kll w ma3 l mashri2iyyé… bass msh ma3 l Salafiyyé wl 3urubiyyé Permalink 2020-07-20 12:51:33

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 12:13:54

@nntaleb Ma be2ra illa bil mashr2é (Levantine) Permalink 2020-07-20 11:45:06

@nntaleb Here is what he got confused with Permalink 2020-07-20 11:43:33

@nntaleb There is an “i” too many Permalink 2020-07-20 11:39:00

@nntaleb Ana baddé lézém lé2é jém3a 3a zaw2é bté3zmné. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:36:38

@nntaleb WARNING The Lebanese are citing some dark article by the Washington Post @LizSly If journalists knew anything about anything in business & economics they wouldn’t be journalists. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:33:16

@nntaleb Fi byetrko, fi byeb2o, fi byejo! Ba3d ma @PZalloua 2arrar yb2a bi baladna bhal fatra lse3bé, mfakkar ana erja3, la intemé la jém3a bi Lebnén la 2awwé l ma3nawiyyét (w 3allém l tlémiz Data Science). Permalink 2020-07-20 11:29:26

@nntaleb Salibi was a fraud, I block people who promote frauds. Permalink 2020-07-20 11:02:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-20 11:00:54

@nntaleb In old Arabic, Ajami عجمي meant Persian or foreigner, as there was an expression: “al 3rbu wal 3ajamu”. Seemingly same in Osmali. Permalink 2020-07-20 00:22:20

@nntaleb It seems to me from what little Osmali I can make out, that Acemoglu is “son of the Persian”, Acemi+Oglu Permalink 2020-07-20 00:02:23

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-19 23:09:39

@nntaleb Yes in text explain that the collective is AF at the expense of individual restaurants. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:08:06

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 23:04:12

@nntaleb Never thought that. Restaurants have ALWAYS been fragile. The quality benefits from bankruptcies. Permalink 2020-07-19 23:03:44

@nntaleb I live there 3 mo/year … Permalink 2020-07-19 22:55:58

@nntaleb 2eltello Permalink 2020-07-19 22:40:37

@nntaleb Heik 2elello la 7sein mbére7. Permalink 2020-07-19 22:30:03

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order? Permalink 2020-07-19 21:01:42

@nntaleb @PZalloua is writing one. A real one Permalink 2020-07-19 18:46:41

@nntaleb He knows Classical Arabic but his native language is Levantine, 75% of a language away from Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-19 18:45:24

@nntaleb nitpicking: claim not claims Permalink 2020-07-19 17:21:17

@nntaleb nitpicking: speack IN French Permalink 2020-07-19 17:20:44

@nntaleb GODEL DU JOUR Someone hearing me speak french, – Ah you speak French [in French] Me [in French]: Not at all I am faking it (“je fais semblant”) – Sorry I mistakenly thought you spoke Fr Me [in French]: Everyone makes mistakes. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:15:18

@nntaleb Do you want to be blocked? Permalink 2020-07-19 17:09:25

@nntaleb Yes I blocked for sophistry. Permalink 2020-07-19 17:01:30

@nntaleb The claims that I blocked Saifedean Ammous based on private communication is a lie. I blocked him on the basis of dangerously crankish and conspiratorial public feed. I block all lunatics. Gabish? Permalink 2020-07-19 16:51:29

@nntaleb Leish ya Bourashid ma btktob bil 7 mtlna la nefham bsr3a? Permalink 2020-07-19 13:19:54

@nntaleb Free PDF Permalink 2020-07-19 12:08:57

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 6 Footnotes. a) PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE The quality of hardcover books released now is so bad, as it publishers knew nobody would care about the book after 2 years. b) Few publishers are in for the 3rd wave: Penguin (UK), Knopf, etc. Why? It’s a small market! Permalink 2020-07-19 12:06:06

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 5 So, need to avoid “launches” to avoid the promiscuous 1st wave buyers. My books will not be launched/distributed, just to avoid the buyer who *buys books* rather than someone who wants the specific topic. I started my own publishing for StConsFTails. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:52:01

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 4 I am only interested in the 3rd wave (FBR, INCERTO-1, is ~20 y old); I am in a different business. I shd avoid the First Wave buyer, who doesn’t count long term. They rely on book reviewers (not time), e.g. that BSVendor @EasterbrookG for the NYT. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 3 Most Publishers make $from the First Wave, with increasingly lower quality paper that degrades w/time. Their staff isn’t even equipped for the 3rd Wave as no credits/promotions beyond the first/2nd year when the book is attributed to a specific editor Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 2 Then they move on to the next book & books go to low margin paperback & eventually die. 2nd Wave: Few books survive, only if they have #Lindy attributes, & or if some academic conversation props them up. Third Wave: One in 1,000 -10,000 makes it. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 1 First Wave: Fashion buyers, the class of people who systematically buy NEW “idea books”. The entire book industry organized to sell to them. Books must be “in the conversation”. The hardcover sales is where the $$$are made. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:48:21

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is what I am saying. Tribes and national statism are not the same thing. See PRINCIPIA POLITICA Permalink 2020-07-19 11:26:03

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-19 11:01:04

@nntaleb The dark story of the “enlightenment”. Permalink 2020-07-19 11:00:11

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-19 10:56:22

@nntaleb Just ordered. Thanks. Permalink 2020-07-19 02:24:50

@nntaleb Ktir 2awiyyé Permalink 2020-07-19 00:16:01

@nntaleb Thanks Mansour! mt3addar it is, from Hydra AND, mysteriously, from an old Semitic tale about a donkey that grows heads when you cut one off. [Practically all Greek myth have a more ancient Aegyptian or Semitic counterpart] Te3dir تِعدير = antifragilty Permalink 2020-07-18 20:49:25

@nntaleb mt3addar! the right meaning. Permalink 2020-07-18 20:20:01

@nntaleb How about متلدن from تلدين, annealing? Permalink 2020-07-18 20:09:31

@nntaleb مش كافي Permalink 2020-07-18 20:07:09

@nntaleb Hayda robust Permalink 2020-07-18 20:01:59

@nntaleb 3am nt2arrab! Permalink 2020-07-18 19:58:50

@nntaleb לָֹא, יעני תחססנ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:52:22

@nntaleb In Hebrew was Anti shabir אנטי שביר Permalink 2020-07-18 19:49:41

@nntaleb robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:48:12

@nntaleb يعني اكل دعك… و تحسن Permalink 2020-07-18 19:46:36

@nntaleb منيحا هيده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:45:19

@nntaleb لئ Permalink 2020-07-18 19:44:19

@nntaleb متخبط ؟ كلمه جديده Permalink 2020-07-18 19:43:10

@nntaleb No no no Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:45

@nntaleb No no no ماكن= robust Permalink 2020-07-18 19:33:27

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DISCUSSION Looking for a term close to Antifragile in Levantine (not necessarily Antifragile) for a translation of the article with @HsenAndil and @Zzeghedrane. It does not have to be literal Permalink 2020-07-18 19:19:12

@nntaleb Yes, you are right. This was not published… I didn’t recognize my words as I usually polish before putting in a book. Permalink 2020-07-18 18:37:01

@nntaleb I NEVER wrote this Permalink 2020-07-18 17:16:51

@nntaleb If you want. If so, pls add + ergodicity + IQ + GMO(s) + Brier Permalink 2020-07-18 17:13:48

@nntaleb The Khazar theory is but, was some BS by a political journalist. Permalink 2020-07-18 17:06:55

@nntaleb Hold off might get something better Permalink 2020-07-18 13:52:44

@nntaleb But can’t get the distinct Koura smell. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:45:01

@nntaleb I speculate that, aside from the dimensionality problem, e-books cannot produce odors, so I guess no olive oil. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1284470642180587521 Permalink 2020-07-18 13:43:20

@nntaleb How much is shipping? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:37:47

@nntaleb Yes, of course, many historians are rigorous; which part of “usually” was not clear? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:35:19

@nntaleb We changed supplier. New one delivers immediately. You can cancel and reorder. Permalink 2020-07-18 13:33:50

@nntaleb “Orders” Permalink 2020-07-18 13:31:38

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-18 13:20:35

@nntaleb No, Aleppo: many look like him there. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:41:11

@nntaleb Cannot resist. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:31:40

@nntaleb 2) This is a “mamluk nobleman from Aleppo”. Explain how one could be BOTH slave and nobleman except in a structure similar to Mafia made man. Historians are usually not very bright; their classifications are absurd & they don’t have the guts or intellect to question them. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:25:48

@nntaleb Ingram the distributor is incompetent. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:13:57

@nntaleb No fucking imbecile, this is IN COMPARISON to other populations. Permalink 2020-07-18 12:12:41

@nntaleb HISTORICAL MUSING of the day: MAFIA & MAMELUKS The Mameluks were military “slaves” (oft. Chris. born) who were paradoxically the ruling class. How? Same w/MADE MEN in the Mafia. Once in you can’t get out. You are both owned by the mafia & part owner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamluk Permalink 2020-07-18 12:10:50

@nntaleb Jaffer, block nitpickers. This has nothing to do with the gender of the predator. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:22:56

@nntaleb He is OK but no scholar. Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:57

@nntaleb The biggest BS in discourse is claiming “people are self-interested and *rational*”. No. It is not so “rational” at the individual level; it is rational at the group level to wear mask under multiplicative risks because YOU are part of the multiplication. https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1284190658060668928 Permalink 2020-07-18 10:21:02

@nntaleb When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 23:17:38

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? This is giving moral support to 000s of youth. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:03:20

@nntaleb Fuck, no. I’ve never seen an economist do real world statistics right. Permalink 2020-07-17 20:00:50

@nntaleb The precedent has begun. Detenuring is easy: close depts. Rent-seeking at the expense of middle class parents eventually has an end. Detenured professors in social science are unskilled labor outside citation rings. You can’t use an economist for gardening or moving furniture. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:45:09

@nntaleb The Indicator function gives you Pi. Permalink 2020-07-17 19:37:05

@nntaleb You represent the East Med. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:59:34

@nntaleb Thanks! When did you order it? Permalink 2020-07-17 18:49:57

@nntaleb This is heroic. 1) Zalloua stays in Lebanon to be honorable/not a deserter. 2) Joins the univ. of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch (even better). 3) We are starting the EAST MED DATA SCIENCE CENTER. 4) Balamand is a 12 C Crusader outpost (Belmont), 6 km from Amioun. Permalink 2020-07-17 18:44:18

@nntaleb Siesta. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:16:46

@nntaleb Genetically, Meds are not made for the sun. 6000-3000 years is not enough. Their skin wrinkles. Permalink 2020-07-17 17:05:56

@nntaleb Why do I despise nitpickers? Tautology in LOGIC is a statement that is true by necessity. Do you mind if I block you? Don’t be offended. It is simple discipline: I managed in my life and in my Twitter feed to get rid of nitpickers. Permalink 2020-07-17 16:58:18

@nntaleb Fox News will some day discover that thing commonly known as tautology. https://fxn.ws/30oLmI2 #FoxNews Permalink 2020-07-17 16:10:23

@nntaleb Not always and not for everyone. Money cured my desire for luxuries. Permalink 2020-07-17 15:48:45

@nntaleb Siesta Permalink 2020-07-17 15:22:25

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink 2020-07-17 14:55:50

@nntaleb That fund? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march Permalink 2020-07-17 14:54:54

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-17 13:41:41

@nntaleb Vero Permalink 2020-07-17 13:37:44

@nntaleb @tomsmith585 https://link.medium.com/ZpadefF7b8 Permalink 2020-07-17 13:33:05

@nntaleb I know it’s comedy. Problem is many don’t Permalink 2020-07-17 13:09:18

@nntaleb Weyn l Brikka? Permalink 2020-07-17 13:04:18

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME! Absense of sense of humor is a marker of a total inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, maxbitcoiners, Salafis, Protestant zealots, NYTcopyeditors, CancelCulturistas & others w/seriously defective intellects. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:55:45

@nntaleb Was thinking the SAME thing! Absense of humor is a sign of inability to get nuances, prominent among pseudolibertarians, Salafis, zealots, etc. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:44:52

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people who write nonsense. Nothing personal. Permalink 2020-07-17 12:38:45

@nntaleb Thanks to lax law enforcement in some U.S. cities these strategies might be actually used to promote mask use– a step up from social shaming. Permalink 2020-07-17 11:10:11

@nntaleb Any function of it. Permalink 2020-07-17 10:48:45

@nntaleb Why? This is both true and not racist at all since NonGaussian. Permalink 2020-07-17 01:45:50

@nntaleb And the highest title was “second teacher”, as nobody could reach the level of Aristotle. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Farabi Permalink 2020-07-16 22:30:22

@nntaleb There were tonnnnnnnnns of Greek speaking people in the Khalifate (my ancestors and all educated pple in the coastal Levant). But Arabic language thinkers worshiped Aristotle but relied on “the interpreter” who wrote in Arabic. Permalink 2020-07-16 22:27:52

@nntaleb حلوة يريت استعملتها لما كتبت انتيهشاش Permalink 2020-07-16 22:12:17

@nntaleb Culinarily, America is now a Med colony. Permalink 2020-07-16 19:13:03

@nntaleb Having a lot of Twitter followers… not necessarily Permalink 2020-07-16 18:32:34

@nntaleb “Israeli style”? You mean Lebanese. Permalink 2020-07-16 18:29:43

@nntaleb You said Arabic doesn’t work Permalink 2020-07-16 18:28:53

@nntaleb As usual, they went to Alexandria … then. Athens was a relic. Permalink 2020-07-16 17:16:38

@nntaleb There is a yuuuuuuge Byzantine production repressed by Euro scholars because of Gibbons and the bad press of the enlightenment. Will find Mavroudi’s lecture. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:34:17

@nntaleb Reinvention; read reintroduction into the consciousness but since 3rd C BC Alexandria was the true Greek center. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:17:45

@nntaleb For 1800 years few Greeks discussed Athens. Permalink 2020-07-16 16:09:38

@nntaleb Which is why Hagia Sophia hurts. Greek is Hellenistic, not Classical; Nordics who reinvented a “Greek identity” w/Greek gods on coffeeshop takeout mugs never get it. Nor do Levantines brainwashed by Arab fascism. Athens is a German Disneyland-style reinvention in the early 19C. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:59:40

@nntaleb New York Suburbs. In normal times, this parking lot for commuters to NYC would be full. Sometimes all it takes is one single image to be hit with reality. I am still in disbelief. Permalink 2020-07-16 15:53:13

@nntaleb Maybe they use past record as prior Permalink 2020-07-16 13:33:27

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1267161610243710976?s=21 Permalink 2020-07-16 11:37:30

@nntaleb Mabruk. Weyn? Permalink 2020-07-16 11:23:20

@nntaleb COVID is an economic stress test: the fragile is being destroyed (universities, airlines); the robust will thrive. It’s mostly an intellectual stress test; destroying fake probability: non-EVT epidemiology, naive”evidence based”(Ioannidis), BS vendors (@PTetlock🐁, Sunstein)… Permalink 2020-07-16 10:48:16

@nntaleb When Turkish was written with Arabic characters, they respected the sounds: “c” was “g”, etc. Permalink 2020-07-16 10:14:51

@nntaleb Palestinians from Galilee, particularly Christians, have the same genetics as Greeks and Southern Italians. Are Greeks “brown”? If so, is Aristotle “brown”? How did you get a theology degree being that stupid? Permalink 2020-07-16 01:21:29

@nntaleb Yes they took over and it was more like made men in the mafia: you are now a property of the mafia while being part owner. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:02:26

@nntaleb It’s going to get better. Permalink 2020-07-16 01:01:26

@nntaleb Never Beirut. It was largely migration into, unlike Tyre. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:45:21

@nntaleb Actually Med genetics! Permalink 2020-07-15 21:35:31

@nntaleb With help from Scribe Media @TuckerMax @zachobront Permalink 2020-07-15 21:22:50

@nntaleb Liguria is Med as hell Permalink 2020-07-15 21:19:27

@nntaleb No child sacrifice is fake news. They just buried dead children together. Greeks have plenty of aged persons in statues. Permalink 2020-07-15 21:15:13

@nntaleb Yes and the Jesuits messed it up with casuistry and use of equivocation. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:30:31

@nntaleb Look at the wrinkles! Permalink 2020-07-15 20:25:11

@nntaleb ALL Roman soldiers were free men, no? Same with Arabs. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:24:47

@nntaleb “Meds try to look older; more prestige…” True Trying to do a portrait for the French Incerto. Will look 24 years older and 24 lbs heavier. Why? this is not a diet/life coaching book. https://twitter.com/GregorySMcMuray/status/1283496199300026371?s=20 Permalink 2020-07-15 20:22:54

@nntaleb White lie. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:18:00

@nntaleb Lying (outside of white lies) is a sin, except when some busybody asks you something personal that’s none of their business or not relevant to the discussion. You are then morally obligated to confuse them. When journos ask me for my DoB, I always give Mandelbrot’s, 1924. Permalink 2020-07-15 20:14:41

@nntaleb Soon Permalink 2020-07-15 19:35:37

@nntaleb Permalink 2020-07-15 19:08:18

@nntaleb You can approve it is a different distributor, in stock. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:06:49

@nntaleb Actually it is in from another distributor. So you can wait for old order to be fulfilled or cancel and reorder, but for US only. Permalink 2020-07-15 19:05:40

@nntaleb Could it be Mori? Permalink 2020-07-15 18:59:22

@nntaleb Hi, when did you order? Thanks Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:33

@nntaleb I picked the MOST expensive paper I could find, full color. This is an artisanal book, where I wrote, typeset, formatted. Did the entire thing. Feels like #SoulInTheGame Permalink 2020-07-15 18:56:09

@nntaleb Actually, the Naples version is a pun since “muori” is a town nearby. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:28:05

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:47

@nntaleb The French have a much more concise way to express it: “Voir Naples[Venise] et mourir” Permalink 2020-07-15 18:22:34

@nntaleb Soon you will see more evidence with my notes on the text. Permalink 2020-07-15 18:13:19

@nntaleb Je lis Frédéric Dard pour la langue. Pas d’académie, pas de controle. Permalink 2020-07-15 16:59:28

@nntaleb But those you can’t study for them Permalink 2020-07-15 16:47:29

@nntaleb If you must study for an exam, you will never really know the subject matter. Permalink 2020-07-15 15:49:30

@nntaleb Grant, you can get the class at TJ Max for $6 a pair! Permalink 2020-07-15 13:55:27

@nntaleb “Qui m’ont échappé”, cher compatriote grecophénicien. Permalink 2020-07-15 13:54:33

#RWRI13, Connectivity, endcoronavirus.org, Contact Between People, virucide, Quillettists, #RiadPonzi, John Gray, Conferences, Sunstein, Superspreader, TRUE JUSTICE, Harari, Dawkins, Hanson, Thaler, George Steiner, Bureaucracy, Localism

@Pascallisch Same is true for animals/evolved cognitive systems. Most false positives for predator detection in foliage are without consequence. A single false negative can be fatal. Raw accuracy is not the point. Permalink 9:11 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If the word “panic” means “exaggerated” reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem. We have survived for zillion years thanks to “irrational” “panics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235663235573067777?s=20   Permalink 8:30 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Saying the coronavirus panic is dumb is dumb. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #WittgensteinsRuler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528   Permalink 7:56 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “If you see fraud, & you don’t say fraud, you are a fraud”. I provided a list of #RiadPonzi & the banker’s partisans. They also engaged in smearing those who were opposed to paying. https://twitter.com/Nasser_Saidi/status/1236253217010450432   Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 1) Predictions don’t count. It’s their payoff, what you do w/them (x is not f(x) ). Academics don’t get it. “Speculators are not paid in true or false, but in $) 2) Indeed, I don’t run the account. But I save the tweets as I am too lazy to have a notebook. Thanks, Cetin. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1236080589897375749   Permalink 4:19 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Impressive: he was self-taught in Semitic languages. Like our @HsenAndil “Only autodidacts are free” (#Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/21brbso7PR Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@HomegrownJoan @nntaleb Nurses need help! https://mobile.twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651   https://twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651   Permalink 3:05 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb We hit 400 volunteers! https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719   Permalink 2:53 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb New job https://twitter.com/Imparziale4/status/1236061954772475904   Permalink 2:52 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@paulportesi @nntaleb Wittgenstein ruler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528   Permalink 2:10 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Possibly the most erudite man in history. He taught himself Semitic Languages & translated Arabic proverbs into Latin. He knew Arabic, Greek, Latin, Hebrew, Syriac/Aramaic. He was to Montaigne (then considered a popularizing philistine) what Umberto Eco was to Fox News. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1235995793280163840   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU”>  pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU Permalink 11:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft… Permalink 8:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@dancarna Localism in Seattle: the CDC was taking too long with multiple fumbles getting testing kits to us so we made our own. Now we’re able to test 1000 people per day https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/with-seattle-on-the-front-lines-of-covid-19-epidemic-university-of-washington-lab-given-emergency-approval-to-test-for-coronavirus/   Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@normonics As this thing evolves, remember: we did not hedge. We told you what we saw and what was coming if we failed to take action. Most are too busy hedging to get their head out of the sand. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters New blog post. Probability weighting is one of those supposed cognitive biases that evaporate, as far as I can tell, when we think carefully about how to live within time. https://ergodicityeconomics.com/2020/03/06/probability-weighting-and-ergodicity-economics/   Permalink 6:26 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually we can show this identity is false: Negative log = log[abs[]]+ i \pi is not really a function, when we solve as 1 rather than 2 integrals we get a residual of \frac{\pi^3}{3}. Otherwise the left integral is something like -5/4 i zeta(3) “offset” by the second integral. Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM ! Mervyn King understand that city-states shd deal directly with one another, not via some bureaucrat in Brussels/DC Athens had a deal w/Sidon: full rights in both places (at least in Athens, where resident Sidonese were not metics but citizens) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-06/mervyn-king-city-of-london-should-align-with-new-york-not-eu?srnd=premium   Permalink 5:48 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Friends, Now that you understand multiplicative and systemic effects, you can get why we worry about GMOs –but not small idiosyncratic risks. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO”>  pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO Permalink 3:54 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@MKM_Abdul Precisely what @nntaleb wrote in Antifragile. https://twitter.com/annchildersmd/status/1235632957995372544   Permalink 2:16 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thanks for the help. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Another blue check mark who doesn’t understand 1) multiplicative processes, 2) risk, 3) other stuff. Yet spreading danger. Another one. https://twitter.com/PeterDiamandis/status/1235682503605669888   Permalink 1:58 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why it is SELFISH to not worry more about the virus than other sources of risk even if it does not affect you as much. Individual precaution does not scale to collective precaution. [Adding to PRINCIPIA POLITICA] pic.twitter.com/F7jRKAQ4dz Permalink 12:27 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Maestro Statistician Andrew Gelman going (as usual) after nudgeboy @CassSunstein [If you want to be scared, imagine him or concoctista “Rationality Richard” @Richard_Thaler doing some nudging from the White House if Biden is elected.] https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/03/03/coronavirus-panic-news/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm”>  pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail hedge: he explains the logic of how to make a portfolio ergodic by cutting the left tail. https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1235316588640759808   Permalink 9:27 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb News is misleading. They froze the assets of bank OWNERS & managers. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grrrrrrrreat news! The Cascade has started. Next in line: #RiadPonzi (Fakkét l masb7a!) https://reut.rs/2Tq9FTC   Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/dMOcjFwhmJ Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Those who mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence (like these morons) end up leaving the gene pool, except that here they endanger others. https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1235247099756892162   Permalink 10:39 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) Ricardo got the point but missed on its analytical consequences. pic.twitter.com/CLPZG4aOQS Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Its time to take action to stop COVID-19. Join our volunteers working at local and regional levels to help contain the virus. Email necsivolunteers@gmail.com with your state and county information to join the team @nntaleb Permalink 8:05 PM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And… when you finish one volume, start a new one. Technical Incerto Volume 2 pic.twitter.com/4tTlvPpwJ0 Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Add this smearer @Berti74 pic.twitter.com/KABktMe6hg Permalink 7:22 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Neo-nazis, like Quillettists, are statistically incompetent, parroting buzzwords like “PCA” Even if correct (it’s not),PCAs, 1)reflect recent endogamy, 2)distances need to be corrected. Entropy: If pple LOOK the same, they ARE the same. See my paper: https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn”>  pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn Permalink 6:28 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This music must be coming from deep Anatolia/East Med, before these languages came to the region. https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285?s=21   https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Yaneer explains the payoff from “panic”. If you reduce the connectivity between people the rate drops & we are nonlineaely out of the woods. Hint: the flu season typically starts & ends with the school year. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1234638804725751814   Permalink 5:00 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Ladino version of Jews from Turkey https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=234&v=uSOrl7l9lOg&feature=emb_logo   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU”>  pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU Permalink 1:06 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few Turks are aware of the fact that they are almost entirely converted Greeks/Armenians/Georgians/Levantines. “Languages travel, genes stay” https://twitter.com/C_Westling/status/1234581871142588421?s=20   Permalink 12:52 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Greek version: Ο ΓΙΑΤΡΟΣ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8_fyNHO7q0   Permalink 12:44 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Levantine versions of “Aman Doktor” سكابا يا دموع العين https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoQ53H3wyKU   https://twitter.com/AlfredHarb/status/1234564732423680000?s=20   Permalink 12:09 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb EAST MED In spite of what Nordic supremacists have led people to believe, Greeks, Turks, Western Armenians, Anatolian Kurds, & Northern Syrians are the same people. They have the same soul. https://twitter.com/DIAS/status/1234256857360949249   Permalink 8:23 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@imleslahdin The way @nntaleb writes is the best model in the world. Not just the content, the whole open process. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234439613642682373   Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Came home to find hard copies of the new book. Beautiful. This is print on demand, which costs $20 per copy to print (highest quality paper). The volume version should costs $5-7 to print & will be available in 2 months. Meanwhile PDF is free: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ”>  pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ Permalink 3:25 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb John Gray is the real deal. https://twitter.com/davidsarac/status/1234138190048423937   Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@DIAS In Istanbul, some friends were singing an old Turkish song “Aman Doktor” in a restaurant. A Greek man walks up to the table and starts singing the same song in Greek (Greeks and Turks share many old folk songs) At the end The 2 men showed great respect to eachother wow pic.twitter.com/w2cWaliQyf Permalink 3:19 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb AVOID PSEUDO-EMPIRICISM Just realized that the point about @CassSunstein style of pseudo-empiricism (common to journos/psychologists of risk and “rationality”) is explicit in Skin In the Game, nontechnical! pic.twitter.com/eiUIldB24M Permalink 1:50 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BLOCKING & FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION A twitter feed is NOT an open public forum. It is private. It is like your daily newspaper or your personal classroom. You are free to let in only qualified students. Otherwise noise will overtake your life. Permalink 12:01 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The wisest thing is to preemptively block every journalist — particularly UK and “science” ones. https://twitter.com/CalJamieson/status/1234202323834068993   Permalink 11:55 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Conferences are bad not because of how many people one connects with there, but because they move germs across the planet, de-localize the problem. https://twitter.com/TurgesonFerd/status/1234198348615147521?s=20   Permalink 11:34 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One heuristic. Whenever you hear “evidence based”, expect probabilistic fraud. https://twitter.com/AlfonsoSpencer9/status/1234042331030007808   Permalink 10:57 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Blocked the fellow (among others who dangerously advocate “no worry”). Higher fatality rate can actually lower the risk of the disease, make tails thinner. Why? Simply because dead people tend to not take planes, trains subways, & cruises. Even in California. pic.twitter.com/z32uuRvbzg Permalink 10:18 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@perfexcellent When I see this, the more I wish people would follow @nntaleb’s advice that these bodies should be created with a non-negotiable expiry date. Permalink 8:14 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@KaMiller1 Bottom of page 2 above the comic: @nntaleb provides greatest footnote in the history of footnotes. You made my morning, Sir! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234093143089434624   Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@TulsiGabbard .@realDonaldTrump Remember this? https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/375759718251503616   Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HfkamAmsAl Permalink 4:32 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those still unable to understand that death from multiplicative processes such as corona are NOT to be compared to those from thin-tailed sources, see Chapter 3 of new book: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ”>  pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is not the base rate fucking fallacy. Please stop using names given by ignorant psychologists to statistical phenomena. Permalink 6:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb There is a marked-to-market problem. Low incidence = low testing. Only places that mark to market properly seem to be Singapore and Bella Italia. pic.twitter.com/seSrdFy3X8 Permalink 5:31 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The initial discussion was how intelligent people (in the real sense, that is, people who get stuff) don’t correlate much with those with high IQ scores (IQ scores select for idiots who are good test takers/prone to becoming bureaucrats and slaves of states & large corps). Permalink 4:43 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Why, among public figures, good looking people (actors) are not so intelligent, and intelligent people are not so good looking? (Posed by @joe_shipman) pic.twitter.com/idK1xOfeH2 Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam We are looking for volunteers for the coronavirus outbreak response. Please DM me if you are willing to help. In order for this to be stopped we need to work together to make it happen. Permalink 3:25 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The entire idea of the INCERTO is that uncertainty makes some decisions muuuuuuch easier. If I am “uncertain” about the skills of the pilot, I take another plane. If I am “uncertain” about an investment, I say no, etc. But Nudgeboy @CassSunstein suggests opposite. pic.twitter.com/I3jCFqSV6o Permalink 2:17 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The logical problem with IYIS: we don’t know the risk HENCE let’s ignore it. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1233757564921356290?s=20   Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Most places with “low incidence” are turning out to be places of *low testing*. Includes, of course, the United States. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1233784596241747968   Permalink 9:58 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The rate of infection drops when fewer people are in enclosed spaces. Singapore has too much AC in the summer. https://twitter.com/Kaschat1/status/1233771178357075968   Permalink 7:11 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@ggreenwald This Boston Globe column says Sanders’ attempt to win the Massachusetts primary is “very disrespectful” to Sen. Warren, a form of “major humiliation,” one that reveals an ugly character flaw of “unbridled ambition” that is “exceedingly off-putting” https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-goes-campaign-kill/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr”>  pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@kemaunders Thank you to the brilliant team (@nntaleb, Raphael Douady, @financequant, Alicia Bentham Williams, @normonics, @trishankkarthik, Arié H, and Tom Messina) and my fellow participants who made #RWRI 13 an experience that will touch many parts of life. My immediate to do list… Permalink 2:29 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@seandaken THANK YOU Alicia Bentham-Williams @nntaleb Raphael Douady @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @ariehaziza @vergilden and my fellow participants for an incredible week. Found my people. See you at a future #RWRI #RWRI13 #incerto #oneplusminusalpha #cutthetail Permalink 5:06 PM – 28 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Please use # #RWRI not just #RWRI13 https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232668480153014272   Permalink 9:20 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 How simple rules build complex structures with Mathematica code by ⁦@financequant ⁩ Genome cannot explain the conplexity of life pic.twitter.com/QIMxe8e3aX Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:10 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The hidden mean: you know that real cases are (at best) equal or higher than reported. Reported = lower bound, not estimate. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1232676620667891715   Permalink 6:44 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/leominkus/status/1232419862879842306   Permalink 4:40 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@harshacoach People think of government as an abstract theological entity, not as a collection of individuals without skin in the game @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Tra l’altro, in questo thread qui sotto, la traduzione in italiano di alcuni documenti degli autori sopracitati: https://t.co/NGd4ef8Yc7   https://twitter.com/dellannaluca/status/1231140691020894208?s=21   Permalink 4:23 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@flaneurizer @nntaleb does not say directly, but China has same relationship with Hong Kong, milking it for the last 20 years. IYIs shout about China wanting to “crush” Hong Kong, but that’s BS. Just a mafioso maybe overplaying their hand. https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232325743536984064   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Atheists are just modern versions of religious fundamentalists: they both take religion too literally.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/nachooliveras/status/1232383749616230401   Permalink 4:29 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@RealJamesWoods Thank you, Doug. This is a brilliant assessment of our current situation with the #Wuhan #CoronaVirus. More importantly, as I understand it, taking strong, unpopular steps to implement strategic intervention before the pandemic is catastrophic in America is absolutely critical. https://twitter.com/ComplexSE/status/1232402538189787137   Permalink 12:58 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@bakingVC Forecasters don’t get rich by being right „on average“. Basically, that’s why there are no rich forecasters. #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The exact discussion at #RWRI about people who don’t get that risk taking is good, under some conditions; and how to defeat sophistry like the one bt this ignorant fellow @realYuriOrlov that “no systemic multiplicative tail exposures” is not “take no risks” at all. https://twitter.com/realYuriOrlov/status/1232375927511769088   Permalink 10:59 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@normonics .@nntaleb currently discussing how social media is a return to a more natural communication pattern, a return from central media gatekeepers #RWRI #RWRI13 #lindy https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1188444355922661376   Permalink 8:53 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@JacobGnther1 “I live in a cave. There are no corners in my house…” #RWRI @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/8vE0Ler9gB Permalink 6:27 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@NachoOliveras Day 2 of #rwri13 just taking off! 1/n pic.twitter.com/bfWtYdYAgx Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@ErikByronTaylor Learned yesterday why guy in the slide is NOT irrational. (Took liberty of updating slide to read Corona instead of Ebola to make it more timely #photoshop) #RWRI #rwri13 pic.twitter.com/LT8TeKIc89 Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@seandaken Having a blast at #RWRI in NYC with @nntaleb and ~65 others pic.twitter.com/py5sUuIRyi Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/docroger/status/1231951997298970624   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/DocRoger/status/1231951997298970624   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump @ErikSchatzker #Negotiations #TheArtoftheDeal #hitfirst pic.twitter.com/FOK8ZLvwwj Permalink 6:07 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I mean infections. Permalink 6:46 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The carpenter fallacy. To understand large gains/losses in a Casino roulette, you don’t ask a carpenter, but a probabilist. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1231768196371435520?s=20   Permalink 6:39 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Doctors and the #WHO don’t understand multiplication. They understand medicine (& addition), not multiplication. When we posted this on Jan 26, there were ~1,000 casualties. Today ~79,000. Unless we overreact, at that rate, in 1 month , can reach yuuuge numbers @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 6:38 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam It is time to stop thinking about pandemic response as a medical effort. Physicians are not trained to evaluate economic impacts, to impose actions for cities, and to engage in the social behavioral change that is needed. Permalink 6:29 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia. Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/brucefenton/status/1231753275252318210?s=20   Permalink 5:53 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 5:24 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Permalink 5:23 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Finally ideas on religions as non comparable items are starting to spread. pic.twitter.com/U93Bze7JbC Permalink 4:56 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1231740183206338565?s=20   Permalink 4:47 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU, increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity. https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1231587280449654784   Permalink 4:34 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@Renegade_Masta @save_the_tweet #please Fucking idiot. Worst case =total destruction. Best case = inconvenience + being wrong. You take inconvenience every time. And yes I live in the area. There is no such thing as overreaction. @DellAnnaLuca @nntaleb @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@bantofu “We need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all these things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock” Antifragile-@nntaleb Permalink 8:26 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Be predictable in granting rewards; unpredictable in delivering punishment. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@ntarunkumar The really important persons in your life are the ones you shouldn’t have to impress. (A personal twist to something I read in @nntaleb ‘s insight on ethics – Bed of Procrustes – and dog ownership). Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb (Each in a different field: philosophers, historians, pol scientists) Erratum: Paul Veyne not Jules. Add: Jane Jacobs, James Scott, E Le Roy Ladurie, etc. Permalink 5:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Answer to who are the (recent) thinkers I don’t find BS vendors? In random order Saul Kripke, Derek Parfit, Elinor Ostrom, Fernand Braudel, Jules Veyne, Tom Holland, Peter Frankopan, Jean-François Revel, Michael Okeshott, Isaac Levi, Russ Roberts, Jon Elster, many,many, many! https://twitter.com/AndyPeyton/status/1231488319671934979   Permalink 4:44 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb From Volume 2 of the technical Incerto: Probabilility, Risk, and Convexity. Vol 1 maps to The Black Swan, Vol 2 maps to Antifragile, Vol 3 to Fooled by Randomness & Big Data [so far] https://twitter.com/JosephNWalker/status/1231514700120252416   Permalink 4:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@JosephNWalker Taleb’s problem with Knightian uncertainty is that there’s no such thing as non-Knightian uncertainty: pic.twitter.com/wtvTsIUcDk Permalink 1:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@alexandersquats https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1078655258354741248?s=19   Permalink 3:27 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb TRUE JUSTICE If you really want diversity & protection of minorities suffering workplace prejudice, stop chromo-categorizing — that fake unempirical business. Hire unattractive people. They are the one suffering the most, & deprived of attention. Permalink 3:25 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mistakes: ɕeeb shd be bayy el ɕαrd should be l ɕαrd Permalink 12:14 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb MED PHILOLOGY DUJOUR The Nicene creed in Lebanese… except that these Maronites have the Filoque “L jeeye mn el ɕeeb w el ɕeben” = “qui ex Patre Filioque procedit” Brilliant except for the heresy! https://twitter.com/henrizaq/status/1231296337494396928   Permalink 11:55 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb L’invidia ha gli occhi e la fortuna è cieca Permalink 8:49 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Gross inconsiderate errors: 1) Ghosn didn’t order an espresso in Arabic, but in the Lebanese Semitic dialect, 3/4 of a language away from Arabic. 2) Beirut was not the “Paris of the Middle East” but the Paris of the Mediterranean. https://www.wsj.com/articles/carlos-ghosns-new-life-in-exile-11582347707?shareToken=st2e30ccfa64584bf696da2e691ecca6d7   via @WSJ Permalink 8:45 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Envy is impossible to conceal. It manipulates you; like a tattoo on your forehead, visible to others but not to you. Permalink 8:40 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A common mistranslation: \sigma is not necessarily volatility. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1231227077711552514   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl”>  pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl Permalink 7:46 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Only the hyperparanoid survive.” #RWRI https://twitter.com/richard49step/status/1231234461976735744   Permalink 7:12 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 7) Results are pouring in! For the Pareto IV (The semi Bell Shaped one-tailed power law. pic.twitter.com/ltRkllCOXR Permalink 3:22 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Taking a class on rationality and probability by @sapinker Pinker is equivalent to +Being taught foie gras preparation by a lifetime vegan. +Being taught random matrix theory by one of the Kardashians. https://twitter.com/FischerKing64/status/1230966699907674117   Permalink 1:40 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@EdmondShami That’s why you shouldn’t trust communists (since they call each other “rafiq”) The Bed of Procrustes, NNT pic.twitter.com/SyT1Bfpo4Z Permalink 1:11 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hilarious! https://twitter.com/INVESTMENTSHULK/status/1230872613297229824   Permalink 12:48 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@Extrachelle 1 essential secret of a good cook: Generosity. Stinginess destroys recipes. Permalink 9:58 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters It’s because reality unfolds over time, not over a statistical ensemble. @nntaleb just did a nice illustration of that, using Kelly-type arguments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1229799216312180739   Permalink 9:50 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters Speaking of insurance, here’s how Rothschild and Stiglitz modeled it in 1976. I think @mikeandallie would agree that Berkshire Hathaway would be bankrupt if they were to apply this theory to their insurance business. pic.twitter.com/tbNEzM2ibq Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 6) Predictably, for fat tails it is worrrrrrrrrrrrrrrse!!! pic.twitter.com/mDQgooVx7i Permalink 8:11 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Voila. Sans abonnement. pic.twitter.com/PJJlnm1Qjo Permalink 7:35 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 5) In continuous time: the lower bound for a real fair game, not a Mickey Mouse™ bet like this ignorant Thaler. pic.twitter.com/0xed0n6UQL Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La photo est horrrrrrrible. https://w.lpnt.fr/2363621t   #Postillon via @LePoint Permalink 3:53 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Je descends dans un hôtel à Paris où habitait André Malraux. Pas de plaque. Même les gens de l’hôtel ne le savent pas. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1230818293734346756   Permalink 3:47 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam They let people off Diamond Princess, put them on planes and busses and sent them home. Amazing they thought a 14 day group “quarantine” would help. Instead it spread infection in the group. Shows they don’t understand how infections work. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-two-australians-evacuated-from-diamond-princess-test-positive-in-darwin   https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1230681676617076736   Permalink 6:46 PM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) In other words a single bet per lifetime is linear, more than one bet requires compounding. Nudgeboy Richard Thaler must be stopped from messing with things he does not understand. Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Back in New York after 7 weeks absence. pic.twitter.com/hefmQDpmJy Permalink 5:39 PM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The problem with Bloomberg is not his competence; he has the charisma of a plate of reheated-but-lukewarm unsalted fried cauliflowers. Permalink 9:12 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It does not mean: 1) Take investment advice from anyone who doesn’t have to work for a living. 2) Never take advice from those who work (note the “has to”). I am glad many rigor vigilantes are correcting errors by commentators. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1230035639070056448   Permalink 8:04 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I have been watching reschedulings for 38 years, since the 1982 LatAm debacle. (Remember I specialize in financial crises). No airline had to worry. @dan_azzi should not say these things without some empirical rigor. Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@Lucas_Erik_ Via twitter and his books, @nntaleb has shown me more truth in a month than all my 4 years of college classes combined. He teaches you how to think about something in a way where you can apply it to a different subject entirely. Teaching how to fish instead of giving a fish. https://twitter.com/gnpm72/status/1229539283293409280   Permalink 1:59 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb @beirut_banyan Actually, 1. Permalink 1:06 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@mcsorley_pete “Of what use is a philosopher who doesn’t hurt anybody’s feelings?” —Diogenes of Sinope pic.twitter.com/xh5h2y5qve Permalink 9:29 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) The Mathematica file. pic.twitter.com/WjrSbCvule Permalink 8:07 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb How you *will* eventually go bust on a fair bet: Explaining the Kelly/Shannon/Thorp result & beyond. (& why nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_Thaler has a serious, serious problem, aside from his other mistakes ). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91IOwS0gf3g&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 8:05 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) My heuristic: if a podcast has had someone like Sam Harris @SamHarrisOrg on, I avoid both listening to & participating in, it. It may be imperfect but the trick cleans up scientism, BS, & absence of scholarship. My allergic reactions to BS have been exacerbated with time. Permalink 7:09 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb As I said above in the thread, IYI robin @robinhanson will not infect himself. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1229768012598796288?s=20   Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I did not podcast in 2019; will do 1 in 2020 w/ @EconTalker on “Uninformative (less politely, “BS”) metrics in social science” (stat under fat tails, correlation BS, IQ, etc.), largely bec. of long private 2-way conversations. Will cover the new tech book. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The reason:filtering. I don’t take chances; I block quickly. The minute I smell sloppy reasoning. https://twitter.com/ptbrodie/status/1229489047921287168   Permalink 4:13 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Academics are usually all talk: @robinhanson is a bullshitter; don’t expect him to go infect himself. https://twitter.com/0neof1/status/1229596442098053120?s=20   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 1 million depositors (erratum) Permalink 3:55 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. False claims on my behalf, @dan_azzi My point is quantitative: 12 Bil to pay next 2 y. If you don’t believe in miracles, you will certainly default on a depleted treasury! Meanwhile $4 bil to be paid for rich bondholders satisfy >1 billion depositors (# TK) https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1228983243657162752   Permalink 1:44 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@jaszo “Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star.” -@nntaleb Permalink 1:07 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@kantynho00 Thread by @nntaleb: Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality,exity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead o https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1229066756012085253.html   Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb East Med Philology du Jour: Today is the day of Theodorus of Tyre. Did you ever wonder why the names Atallah and Atiyeh (as in Michael Atiyah) are only used by Levantine Christians)? Theodorus = gift of God. Atiyeh is the Canaanite version of Atallah Note also: Dorothy. pic.twitter.com/3ArgpYsZrt Permalink 4:18 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3ashu natrin? Ken lézeém n3mol rescheduling bi kénun 2bl l Eurobond l sebe2. 3ajjlo ya shabeb 2abl ma tkhrab aktar. https://twitter.com/neematfrem/status/1229045586739027973   Permalink 6:50 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Discovering Permalink 5:35 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Can you explain, @Fontainebleau ? https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1228819678543347712   Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21   https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1229060502984306689   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21   https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Same with bailouts. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1229070350308257792   Permalink 3:26 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari is a quack. https://twitter.com/GonzaQG/status/1229161201000730626?s=20   Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari’s public activities now occupy a staff of twelve. Mine: staff of 0. Why? Simply, I don’t do speaking and interviewing, etc. Except when very bored. pic.twitter.com/3fOdMwjOAI Permalink 1:44 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Indeed my dimenionality/teleology argument converges to the Hayekian argument. https://twitter.com/luciansusanu/status/1229092373176692737?s=20   Permalink 9:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “If something looks irrational —and has been so for a long time —odds are you have a wrong definition of rationality.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) Human societies are multiscale: the properties of single individuals *do not* predict those of groups, something he never got with the selfish gene BS. Permalink 7:36 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality, complexity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead of time *what* to select for. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1228943686953664512   Permalink 7:35 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) For instance Seneca’s fortune was 300M sesterces, which translates into 75 M dinarii… It takes yeaaaaars to clean up these details. pic.twitter.com/1kNHASqgej Permalink 6:17 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Also used the wrong currency (“dirarii”), etc. Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The INCERTO has been continuously modified for (so far minor) errors. 1) ANTIFRAGILE:”Roman engineers forced to sleep under the bridge” was qualified as apocryphal, but architects in Asia Minor were still accountable. 2) Some refs to psych. progressively removed. Permalink 5:25 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Which is my way of announcing that Skin in the Game is out in paperback. https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/0425284646/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1227931283898150912   Permalink 2:27 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Belittling a powerful asshole = iconoclast. Belittling a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 2:23 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Ignore the bullshitters and note: 1) Bond defaults are routine, in 99.9 % of cases creditors help work out a solution. Ignore lurid non-collaborative cases by scaremongers (Argentina). 2) Gold belongs to the BDL, not to the state, which is shielded. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 11:47 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mr. Hanson, I have called people “imbecile” for vastly more intelligent comments. Permalink 8:35 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Before bloviating on the consequences of a default, ask international bonds legal specialists like @camilleasleiman rather than bullshit artists. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Eurobond payment must NOT be made 1) Insult to depositors (lack of symmetry).Phoenicians 2700 y. ago had more sophisticated rules of risk sharing! 2) Harms OTHER bondholders 3) Default is inevitable; fail EARLY, come CLEAN Those advocating payment are shills or LUNATICS Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hanson, @robinhanson, you don’t seem to get what skin in the game means (nor do you have a faintest clue what betting is, another story). Skin in the game REQUIRES you to infect yourself NOW! https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228701801949671425?s=20   Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La bureaucratie est un outil pour couper certaines personnes des conséquences de leur actions. [Meilleure traduction] https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1228703994127712259   Permalink 7:38 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The best argument in favor of skin in the game: it can help us get rid of dangerous lunatics & riskblind IYIs before they harm the rest of mankind. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228400896507367424   Permalink 7:23 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The dynamics above show how nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it: + You MUST turn down most favorable odds because 1) life is not a one period model, and 2) they lead to total bankruptcy. + Mental accounting is an optimal strategy, not “irrational”. Permalink 6:42 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Fixed the colors in the graph pic.twitter.com/yn4BV6hOSS Permalink 4:53 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb What Samuelson didn’t get is that the Kelly point is the UPPER bound not necessarily the target –just as Shannon’s capacity. One can simply cut one’s portfolio in half and satisfy his criticism. https://twitter.com/migueldva/status/1228464540867682304?s=20   Permalink 5:14 PM – 14 Feb 2020

@PavelMordasov “It takes some humanity to feel sympathy for those less fortunate than us; but it takes honor to avoid envying those who are much luckier.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/kGuWIWOSBu Permalink 8:23 AM – 13 Feb 2020

@DrMichaelBonner ‘The Last Empire of Iran’ is now in print! https://twitter.com/gorgiaspress/status/1227608394497974274   Permalink 8:49 AM – 12 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Trust those who are greedy for money a thousand times more than those who are greedy for credentials.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:34 AM – 10 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sometimes you run in daily life into people who heap abuse on the internet: they cower. Absence of #skininthegame is a problem. https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1226523804148600834   Permalink 8:07 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Maybe is also a lack of #skininthegame on social networks… If you act as an asshole in real live you might get a punch in the face pic.twitter.com/NCICnykixp Permalink 7:10 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Maestro A. Al-Jallad @Safaitic offering me his book in a café in Columbus OH. pic.twitter.com/V52ewrEmGK Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matters are those who never had real world experience.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:14 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #Localism (The fellow is making me aware of my own aphorisms) https://twitter.com/talebwisdom/status/1226110049967394816   Permalink 6:15 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb We need more data but that’s the way to do it: estimations from reliable subsamples. https://twitter.com/aledeniz/status/1226103425508790275   Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Getting out of control https://twitter.com/srutunda/status/1226111375426170881   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@imleslahdin Left-Socialism-Brutalism Right-Traditionalist-Classical Polarizing. https://twitter.com/world_classico/status/1225942717374586882   Permalink 12:16 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@RonPaul Did you catch our interview with Democratic Party presidential candidate @TulsiGabbard? Find out what she thinks about her own party shutting her out of the debates: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk   Permalink 3:42 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Behavioral economics can be summarized as follows: “humans are idiots”. My message: “Maybe, but behavioral economists are most certainly idiots”. Permalink 3:03 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You guys are not getting the joke: I like NJ. It is just that I love NY and there are incompatibilities… Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@RonPaul The Only Person That Trump Should Fear On The Debate Stage Is Tulsi Gabbard Watch the whole show with @tulsigabbard here: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD”>  pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD Permalink 11:10 AM – 7 Feb 2020

Pedophrasty, BS Detection, IQ, White Supremacy, Weightlifting, Data Scientists, Behavioral Economics, SUNSTEIN, @TulsiGabbard, Plomin, Kazan, Matheux, Harari, Gelman, Quilletebeciles, Argentina

The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the “diversity” operators Medium

@nntaleb A sample of the fights between instructors https://twitter.com/diomavro/status/1143888289763647488?s=21   Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Scholarships are open for the Oct 28 session, RWRI 12 http://Www.realworldrisk.com   PS @VergilDen is an instructor. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/784063189457797120   Permalink 10:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@NClibbens @nntaleb Cost and time estimates overrun. Where I have I read about that problem? #incerto https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1168853263900467200   Permalink 10:07 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@thousandairefx @nntaleb Rent seekers! https://twitter.com/JakeVeigelMD/status/1168918972055609344   Permalink 9:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@vvv_ilya A few months ago I’ve been traveling to CH considering the opening of a Swiss company. At the airport, I started reading Skin in the Game by @nntaleb and in a few mins met Mr. Taleb! Why I’m telling this story now? Because I just got YouHodler SA registered! It was a sign pic.twitter.com/THuxzDcmyx Permalink 8:09 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@GuruAnaerobic Tony Blair is a psychopath. He’s a psychopath with no shame. He’s a psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy, lying, psychopath with no shame and no morals. https://twitter.com/JonnyGeller/status/1168543086756188160   Permalink 7:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 25 years of Calabrese lessons, ~ 15 lessons a year. pic.twitter.com/fTVZ6JyS9u Permalink 6:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/JB_Goldstein/status/1168846225342435330   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@noemie_issan J’adore quand @nntaleb insulte en français. Cela ne manque pas de sel “Con fini” est une de mes insules preferées, avec “imbécile heureux” https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1168845474406785035   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great news from this is that Malaysia is a Sunni majority country. Extremely encouraging. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1168052854638206976   Permalink 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Can “Yes” in Lebanese (mbala) is come from the Yes in Persian (بله) than the negation in Semitic: (“بلا”=”without”)? Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SITG is not just disincentives but, centrally, FILTERING. It bankrupts incompetent pple and remove them from the system so they stop harming others. https://twitter.com/BzhClair/status/1168541504710893568   Permalink 8:37 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Extreme Value Theory: How Pareto=> Fréchet, a simple demonstration. pic.twitter.com/zrkkykzL1z Permalink 7:20 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile it is all probabilistic so far. The Anatolian hypothesis is just much stronger. pic.twitter.com/3scUh6NXln Permalink 5:50 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 15 That Indo European languages were born in the Eurasian Pontic-Caspian steppes/Northern Caucasus. Much higher possibility they were born in East-Med, Anatolia. pic.twitter.com/avls6ZtvNS Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 4) The theory is that Aramaic entered Egypt with the Persians who used it as a lingua franca. But there were numerous pockets of Aramaic-writing Jews (hence other Levantines/Anatolians). But the DNA story makes everything else fragile! Permalink 4:17 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) Something for master historical detective @Safaitic to help us with. Permalink 3:52 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) Also further coincidences: that the DNA of the mummies is turning out to be Levantine/Anatolian, not Egyptian. And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian. Permalink 3:47 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Things I learned this year: There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic. I was wondering why Egyptian say “mayya” for water & other Levantinisms. pic.twitter.com/XYYcvIzaAD Permalink 3:16 AM – 2 Sep 2019

@nntaleb (“Zamat bi-risho” mush jéyé min rishé bass mnil seryéné “bi raso”, “rish”=ras.) Permalink 10:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Zamatna. Permalink 10:26 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@rorysutherland The reason this ergodicity thing is useful to marketers is that it explains why they often feel lonely: the managerial-financial aggregated snapshot view of a business lies at 90-degrees to the customer’s experience of a business over time. https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1167775571268554752   Permalink 1:55 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Second version pic.twitter.com/G6JZ6DaGKF Permalink 1:51 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@vtchakarova The DNC would rather lose than nominate Tulsi Gabbard. ‘Gabbard actually has skin-in-the-game. She fought for — and earned — everything she’s achieved.’ cc @nntaleb #SITG #TulsiGabbard https://spectator.us/dnc-lose-nominate-tulsi-gabbard/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW”>  pic.twitter.com/uejnoDPZNW Permalink 1:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Is there a nonBS education outside of STEM, say in the humanities? Yes, classical languages + Heb/Aramaic/Ar/Sanscrit. French used to select on skills in Latin, not just because of access to texts. It’s because to be really good at Latin one must have read of lot of #Lindy stuff. Permalink 2:26 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected finally. Thanks friends for the detection! pic.twitter.com/syjpKhIc02 Permalink 1:22 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Most influential story, heard when I was a beginning trader: Big trader M runs into a junior in the bathroom. M:”Whatyoudoing today?” “Just bought this bond, Broker A recommended it” M kept shouting “But he’s a f** broker, a f** broker” & fired the trader while in the bathroom. Permalink 12:40 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The #1 skill set is BS detection. Jaffer @Jaffer22915438 fughodaboudit because it is very, very natural to him. https://twitter.com/Jaffer22915438/status/1167119565106614280   Permalink 12:09 PM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Another 2 mistakes: limits ->0 not 1. Permalink 11:50 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Oops. I changed symbols from \eta to \epsilon when I turned the page. Corrected pic.twitter.com/NFCepkfFbU Permalink 11:36 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Probability du jour: Why you can’t use regression with fat tails. Showing the biases in psychobullshit studies, among others. Added a section to my next book. For error correction. pic.twitter.com/T54cUxjj6v Permalink 11:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@TerrenceMaldick Reading indiscriminately > everything. Best @nntaleb advice ever is: fuck school, just go to a library and “freestyle read” to ur heart’s content. Why? Because reading pre-ordained books makes u only enjoy reading a LITTLE. Freestyle reading teaches u to LOVE reading. Amen Permalink 7:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Autocrat meant, initially, free. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1167726291430326272   Permalink 2:47 AM – 31 Aug 2019

@nntaleb New section in book: Thin Tails + Fat Tails = Fat Tails, no matter the ratios in the mixing. pic.twitter.com/S3YutONHJs Permalink 2:31 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Typo: they are power law distributed low exponent <2. It is easy to find massaging in the data. Permalink 1:37 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@NealPortenza @nntaleb of all the things you’ve taught me (fat tails, barbell distribution, risk etc), the one thing I remain most grateful for? Squid ink. Allora… pic.twitter.com/kfejEs7k7l Permalink 12:52 PM – 30 Aug 2019

@ggalexsava pic.twitter.com/z2FOmcOda9 Permalink 11:57 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man The accuracy of a forecast is measured only in profits. #blackswanman #theblackswanman @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @HillaryClinton #forecasterrors #elections pic.twitter.com/4xiVxiiHOC Permalink 8:08 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Apprenticeship: law was not really a university thing. You learn working with doers. #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/nhLa0fa6ie Permalink 5:40 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Rossy CDG. pic.twitter.com/GFTlqAVA3t Permalink 4:55 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In matters of politics (and love), “never” means “soon”. https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1167384624554749952   Permalink 4:33 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Squared residuals reveal the Winsorizing. They are a power low but someone did something funny to the data. pic.twitter.com/cShdc0KfSD Permalink 3:26 AM – 30 Aug 2019

@Raddish27 @nntaleb jealous much? #Croatia #ink #Vrbosca pic.twitter.com/OQ2TOogfrQ Permalink 1:43 PM – 29 Aug 2019

@BLebnene W hode kamen al3aab kruute bil Libnene: Le3beh 3a Krouteh, Zello ma T2ello, Min El Ghoul (ssuwar min Multiverse, Hamra). pic.twitter.com/GxbCpj3Bnd Permalink 8:15 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Here we go again. The replication crisis is now hitting IQ studies… Used the same approach as I did with fakescholar @sapinker, under recommendation by @yaneerbaryam: first use THEIR own data, then proceed to uncovering theoretical flaws. pic.twitter.com/kQQ3EwFcxh Permalink 1:28 AM – 29 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I find it EXTREMELY racist and offensive to group all non Northern Europeans, or people from non EU members as a single group of “minorities”, where one can substitute for another. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575   Permalink 11:43 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Mystery solved. They “manufactured” IQ scores in the NLS79, from “correlation”. Data invalid, only acceptable one is WLS. pic.twitter.com/IrQz0Dtc3B Permalink 10:57 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who (thankfully) don’t know what Jesuitic casuistry is, see below. (BTW my father and grandfather were educated by Jesuits; it has been my dream —for years — to find a Jesuit casuist for a good Twitter fight). pic.twitter.com/HCVSE4eM41 Permalink 1:51 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Send me a photo?” There was a time my childhood, when Jesuit priests had 1) erudition, 2) scholarship, 3) knew science &, most of all, 4) When they engaged in *jesuit* casuistry, they were VASTLY more refined in argument: simply, they weren’t THAT easy to catch. Permalink 1:38 PM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Fake! St Augustine was a Med. He looked no different from any Sicilian or Maltese. Africa meant “Southern (West) Med”. https://twitter.com/JamesMartinSJ/status/1166701067595407361   Permalink 11:56 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Finally, the IQ question is far, far too simple! Someone incompetent massaged the data at some National Bureau in Washington & psychologists have been using it because it is more favorable to the IQ case. The NLS data is fake. See the blue, compared to Gaussian & Orange (WLS) pic.twitter.com/tVvZ4O9EFD Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Wiki explains Mutual Information more accurately. Key: it works under NONLINEARITIES. And it is additive. And it is concrete in a betting sense. And it is … ergodic! (Enters the Kelly criterion). pic.twitter.com/mDTYxHlG4F Permalink 7:16 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@thackerpd Exclusive: #Monsanto used former top DOJ official involved in Epstein deal to quash felony case by @adamzagorin & @schwellenbach via @YahooNews https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-monsanto-used-former-doj-lawyer-involved-in-epstein-case-to-quash-felony-charges-090028623.html   #Monsanto just can’t stay out of the news. ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA”>  pic.twitter.com/vzDYgfAWeA Permalink 6:08 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb >150 million “Europeans” are Meds. Meds are a different group. https://twitter.com/Philosophy_Net/status/1166677480305909760?s=20   Permalink 4:51 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The term “white supremacy” is a terrible misnomer; 1) white is indicative of purity not color & 2) does not map to what is called “white” (Caucasian/Western Eurasian) or light skinned (many Asians are light skinned), only to NorthWestern Europe. Best term as replacement: Permalink 4:25 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Also, from Zakorsky’s data, turns out that I was correct (in spite of blog posts by incompetent “data scientists”): Correlation is much lower for higher income. Actually not existent. pic.twitter.com/USGKIQHcDY Permalink 4:03 AM – 28 Aug 2019

@arrington “If your anger decreases with time, you did injustice; if it increases you suffered injustice” – @nntaleb Permalink 6:26 PM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Now entropy methods, Mutual Information, i.e. “how much does someone’s IQ tell you about his/her wealth or income?” or “how much more can you bet on Wealth knowing IQ or vice versa). Answer: “zero”. pic.twitter.com/aw5JeeDoXq Permalink 5:26 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb On the NY-Continent flight, only 6-7 h.: people eat dinner, then 4 hours later, are served breakfast “so they get strength”. You even have to request explicitly that they do NOT wake you up for breakfast. Permalink 3:41 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb #Antifragile https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1166093473910415360   Permalink 3:32 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In real weightlifting (no-machines), you largely work out your neural system. It requires yuuuge concentration to push a piece of metal over your head. & it is exhilarating, like a street fight. Low-intensity “routines” on gym treadmills dull your mind, turn you into an academic Permalink 2:30 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am intolerant of BS vendors, even when they are right. And always tolerant of scholars, even when they are wrong. Permalink 1:35 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at the NLS used by Zagorsky, thanks to Beyon Miloyan. Data is invalid, though results similar to ones from WLS. IQ is truncated, income is cooked up. People in Finance learn how to ferret out statistical cooking in <9 minutes of examination. pic.twitter.com/oRAYJM616p Permalink 1:23 AM – 27 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And the jacknife shows my data is clean. pic.twitter.com/dScs8mKiat Permalink 4:01 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And minutes later, Donaldo got into negotiation mode! https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1166007859064266755?s=20   Permalink 3:20 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com/4bQEeoeyb6 Permalink 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@ahshoja Is @realDonaldTrump getting advice from @nntaleb or reading @nntalebbot? https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864?s=21   Permalink 1:15 PM – 26 Aug 2019

@NonMeek .@otrasenda_AC @trishankkarthik @nntaleb @Vasilis48814362 Finally found the time to finish what I promised: “Oliver & Trishank vs Skinny IYI Zombies [#ZIYI].” My interpretation I hope you like it. pic.twitter.com/6ymiRNUxuG Permalink 9:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 9:36 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The best so far! Incentives for peace not tawk! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864   Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS #peace #Vienna #Iran #Hayek #Popper #Freud pic.twitter.com/E7WPHX4S83 Permalink 7:16 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kamén la nfham 3a ba3dan: manna jéyin la n7ké bi shi illa l-lgha. Ma fi 3ila2a bi shghlé l téné (w ktbé). https://twitter.com/BLebnene/status/1165875395666874369   Permalink 6:12 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) Now thanks to raw data, I am uncovering something >> more sinister in IQ research. When the slope is + but R^2 is terrible they only show the slope. When R^2 is high but the slope is ~0, they show R^2. When both are bad, they truncate the data, which increases R^2. Permalink 5:55 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1165945723587895297?s=20   Permalink 5:22 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Just to confirm, the thread by a few IQ “data scientists” (who don’t understand R^2) nitpicking my piece is BS. All noise. https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1165925167798710272?s=20   Permalink 5:21 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who think behavioral economics has been “helpful” (outside consulting fees), some news. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1164138535919718400?s=20   Permalink 3:49 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb To express the trade-off from iatrogenics in a simple heuristic: Take no medicine that does not make you live longer. #antifragile Permalink 3:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Status is zero-sum game. Money is not in free economies. https://twitter.com/naval/status/1165834035601362945   Permalink 12:46 AM – 26 Aug 2019

@MulusewGerb Our 3rd Scientific colloquium titled ‘Antifragile and health care system in Ethiopia’ will be held in October. The idea is based on seminal work of @nntaleb and our speaker will b @MillaAugestine. @Elias_Yesuf @LegeseDadi @ateklu72 #missitnot #antifragile #robustness Permalink 11:47 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Tabula rasa. Let us say someone zapped all books and papers published since 1900 in psychology. Everything. Would it carry the smallest negative impact on your life? Permalink 3:50 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Today’s blog -> Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:37 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb SUNSTEIN, my model for the IYI, w/the rigor of an artichoke. Master BS busting applied statistician Andrew Gelman has been dunking on him. At the bottom, Sunstein believes research in psychology should be like a business franchise, to defend by all means. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/08/24/more-on-why-cass-sunstein-should-be-thanking-not-smearing-people-who-ask-for-replications/   Permalink 12:30 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3)Jewish Aramaic:ambiguous שהד or הדס but no apparent link witness = martyr as in Greek. So must be a Christian tradition; supicion that Greek => Christian Aramaic, not reverse. Now entered Arabic شهيد via Syriac. Note “Kornet L Sawda” is corruption of Kornet Shhodé. pic.twitter.com/EDx7Opjx3b Permalink 12:21 PM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “the best horses lose when they compete with slower ones, and win against better rivals.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) Same in Christian Aramaic: Shhoda=witness and martyr, from the Greek version. Looking for the Jewish/Babylonian Aramaic use. https://twitter.com/aldertrack/status/1165690600504659970?s=20   Permalink 11:29 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Retranslated; “For the Egyptians, no one illiterate can be a witness”. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1165687785790926848   Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The statements: + > 95% of lethal diseases have a genetic etiology. + > 95% of deaths from disease are environmental. are not incompatible. @PZalloua explained that real world #SITG disciplines (Medicine) don’t take the works of “evolutionary”/DNA (pple a la Plomin) v. seriously. Permalink 10:24 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@mikeandallie Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids/   #math #mathchat Permalink 8:08 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb At the geneticist @PZalloua’s place in Marounistan. Not a single Byzantine church in the entire zone! Rumophobic but gorgeous scenery. pic.twitter.com/1peIVF9mzA Permalink 6:10 AM – 25 Aug 2019

@nntaleb The Fundamental Tail Asymmetry: an illustration using the drop in MERVAL, of how you can accept, never really reject fat tails unless you have some physical law bounding deviations. Adding to the book. [It is Popperian falsification applied to inference] pic.twitter.com/9vB1fTYrjL Permalink 3:55 PM – 24 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Usually, when I go after BS vendors on Twitter, they gain followers. Not here. Need a new BS-vending target both as public service & to make my journey between the republics of Tatarstan & Northern Phoenicia more entertaining. Any suggestion? https://twitter.com/Monsantobuster/status/1165002900155850753   Permalink 7:55 AM – 24 Aug 2019

@GaricMoran 1000 PHD’s in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD’s in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates! Permalink 5:13 PM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Orthodox church next to a mosque in Kazan’s Kremlin. pic.twitter.com/m5pY6CAo6e Permalink 9:48 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb They are still looking for holes in my IQ is nonsense argument. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 8:34 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntaleb “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connections imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer. ” PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/evankirstel/status/1164575263293956096   Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@bulat_abdrkhmnv @nntaleb посетил Казань и @WorldSkillsKZN и поделился своим видением взгляда в будущее pic.twitter.com/03i5qkkR5g Permalink 12:57 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@TimurShagivalee Wealth comes from technical skills, not from universities Благосостояние происходит из технических навыков, а не из университетов @nntaleb #WorldSkillsKazan2019 100%! pic.twitter.com/BybvnJDRMG Permalink 12:14 AM – 23 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:31 PM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Olympiads of techné (vs epistemé): no BS real world skills vs college w/humanities lecktshurers. pic.twitter.com/TvKrafX5PH Permalink 11:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb News from Kazan: Russians are opening a new university with an expiration date based on comment in #Antifragile. Starts in 2020, ends in 2035. May restart then under a new adaptive program. #worldskills https://2035.university   Permalink 9:44 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard “As president I’ll end the failed war on drugs, legalize marijuana, end cash bail, and ban private prisons and bring about real criminal justice reform. I’ll crack down on the overreaching intel agencies and big tech monopolies who threaten our civil liberties and free speech.” pic.twitter.com/oDMVxbmFbJ Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb By policy, if my BS detector makes me go after someone very hard, it is BECAUSE I know his/her work. For instance, I read everything from Pinker. Psychs are idiots. It is almost never the reverse. pic.twitter.com/Mt3glSucVO Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Looked at Plomin’s work. 1-Knows 0 abt correlation (misses on linearity, transitivity, etc.) 2-Knows 0 abt error propagation & dimensionality, basically multivariate probability. 3-Grossly overestimates heredity (via pairwise twin studies) 4-Doesn’t get IQ score !=intelligence https://twitter.com/WiringTheBrain/status/1164438700891213824   Permalink 4:57 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@JoostvanderLeij You measure xG for 10K players, then count their goals scored. 2000 of them are dead. Dead players score 0 on xG and 0 on goals. The rest have the xG uncorrelated to the goals. What is the spurious correlation xG/goals? Answer: 37% Adapted from @nntaleb https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 1:23 AM – 22 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. Permalink 9:36 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@financequant Anyone who had attended the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI seminar led by @nntaleb et al. would already know this. The detailed example we give is a simple discrete recursion that reproduces the fractal structure of the human lung. 1/2 https://twitter.com/imleslahdin/status/1164288469545316353   Permalink 3:18 PM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb People aren’t getting my point. Nothing to do with causation. Correlation requires linearity, does’nt allow subsampling and is very nonlinear. https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   Permalink 9:31 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@RandPaul IT SHOULD BE GETTING AUDITED @realDonaldTrump! https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164174364994080768   Permalink 8:28 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I am getting tired of pple lecturing me on “Italian” expressions. “Gabish” is to capisci what “gabagool” is to capicola, and “avangool” to … Permalink 8:23 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@Marvin_3 This has nothing to do with causation. Can you please stop making @nntaleb points for him, sounding like a PARROT. https://www.dropbox.com/s/18pjy7gmz0hl6q7/Correlation.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 6:39 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore. The article has been generalized by eugenists to genetics & heritability. All it can scientifically confirm is the trivial notion that some people are betters than others given same practice in a specific environment. You can’t get to DNA without yuuuge BS. https://twitter.com/mcowartlaw/status/1164148720109268992   Permalink 5:30 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb It is the fundamental metrics that social scientists don’t seem to get but talk abt like PARROTS. What is correlation? It’s the average of 2 normalized variables MULTIPLIED by one another. In some NARROW circumstances it expresses a statistical association. Which ones? Permalink 5:20 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous BS. Very dangerous. pic.twitter.com/nEXvAudTj1 Permalink 4:33 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@nntaleb India, please stay away from Cass Sunstein. He is the person behind my original IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) article. https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   https://twitter.com/BMGFIndia/status/1164109205600526338   Permalink 4:15 AM – 21 Aug 2019

@EricRyderMorgan Didn’t expect to find trail running advocacy in Antifragile @nntaleb ! https://twitter.com/Choosing2Thrive/status/1164009447964008449   Permalink 8:03 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com/vRBlp3Jua3 Permalink 3:06 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Friends, this is the first draft of my forward for Cippola’s Basic Laws of Stupidity. For comments. Thanks. pic.twitter.com/1QtL00EtoB Permalink 2:51 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Edit: 1830. Permalink 12:11 PM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A Must! + Arithmetic didn’t initially develop for scientists, but for traders/accountants + Before 1930 Mathematics was about the real world. Then it got concerned with abstraction + Texts hide experiments in math leading to theorems. Ramanujan did experimental math. Even Euler. https://twitter.com/stephen_wolfram/status/1159131413511311361   Permalink 11:43 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb Permalink 9:31 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2030s? https://twitter.com/Decafquest/status/1163558762575273984   Permalink 8:51 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I spent my life hearing economists telling me “nothing new; we know about convexity”; then they write an rquation missing the fact that a function of an average can’t be an average of functions. Same with fat tails. https://twitter.com/stratiskarad/status/1163832062220148736   Permalink 8:20 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@buchmanster Oh cool another picture of a young @nntaleb from when he traded chicken futures https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1163551872457805825   Permalink 8:01 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@ara_anderson Today’s @mathonco research in progress is a double act from @mathoncbro @StroblMAR on The (anti-)fragility of adaptive therapy! Work inspired by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/FPbAbhy7FE – at Vincent A. Stabile Research Building Permalink 7:15 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I went after Fannie-Mae in 2003 https://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/07/business/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html   Permalink 5:52 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (cont) I am much stronger than I was at 26. I know a lot more than I did at 26, after eliminating news, only #Lindy books. I speak more languages than I did at 26. I am more independent than I was at 26. but, mostly I made so many mistakes I have more scars than I had at 26. pic.twitter.com/kw1sraiM8p Permalink 5:50 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb ANTIFRAGILE https://www.parcodellavaldorcia.com/calendar-event/forme-nel-verde-2019-antifragile-inaugurazione-27-luglio/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S”>  pic.twitter.com/7MJ9qNML8S Permalink 4:54 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Secrets of longevity: bad birth records. Les secrets des 5 régions championnes de la longévité https://w.lpnt.fr/2330574t   Permalink 2:46 AM – 20 Aug 2019

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Taleb #yoga Permalink 2:34 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Long time ago, an option trader without facial hair, deadlifts & a twitter account. pic.twitter.com/T49rJLK0GT Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Simple 1D problem. Assume 25 siblings have a genetic predisposition to Type 2 diabetes. In a hunter gatherer envir, they will show no correlations w/r to diseases. Move them to Kansas city => high correlation, hence “genetic determinism”. Now think how this blows up in higher D. Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb (For the stickler:) matheux= “matheux mais pas mathematicien” Permalink 10:56 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nabilshadman Plausible scenario in jobs without skin in the game. @nntaleb would probably agree. pic.twitter.com/jVKmVbcxMh Permalink 7:44 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Twin studies vastly overestimate heredity: they yield different results from field studies. Reason: they fail to get 2nd order effects & complex interactions, dominant under convexity. Plomin’s studies for IQ are even worse; yuuge flaws mathematically. https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-great-dna-data-deficit/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM”>  pic.twitter.com/NVi7LU5LfM Permalink 5:59 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Scholar with #skininthegame https://twitter.com/moudhy/status/1163104799665139718   Permalink 5:40 AM – 19 Aug 2019

@nntaleb *going into more and more abstract objects.* Permalink 7:25 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 3/ Real mathematicians are obsessed with abstraction, going into more and more abstract. “Matheux” like contact and feedback with the concrete. During the Soviet era, mathematicians were forced to prove *some* connection to things, how they were helping the building of the USSR Permalink 7:00 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@VergilDen “Bullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI Permalink 2:54 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1075785890935513088?s=20   Permalink 2:48 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Make sure you read this twice. Explain the charlatanism in Plomin’s book. Some pple have know for years that higher dimensions cancel predictability (curse of dim). Now they are finally figuring it out in genetics and neuroscience. https://www.quantamagazine.org/new-turmoil-over-predicting-the-effects-of-genes-20190423/   Permalink 2:47 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2/ I learned from a long career in math finance to never hire mathematicians (PhD in math) to solve math problems or toy with actual equations. You get a better payoff with a “matheux” who studied (undergrad) electrical engineering in India, Russia, Lebanon, or Brazil. Permalink 1:55 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 1/ The French have a distinction mathematician vs. “matheux”. + The mathematicia(e)n is like someone who composes music; doesn’t have to perform, be good w/instruments. Invents math. + The matheux is someone who plays an instrument; can be a virtuoso but doesn’t compose music. Permalink 1:45 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68   https://twitter.com/marcos_moret/status/1163174948443164672   Permalink 1:11 PM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Real World Risk Institute We’re opening full and partial scholarships for #RWRI 12. October 28 in NYC. http://www.RealWorldRisk.com   https://twitter.com/VergilDen/status/1163150438121824256   Permalink 11:26 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: governance declines with scale. Some places more than others. The dream of a “strong nation” that plays geopolitics instead of focusing on law, to facilitate services & commerce is a Baathist disease. Permalink 7:06 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb I block anyone who cites Harari as a reference for anything. Worse than Pinker. Gabish? Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR If you introduce unbiased noise in birth records, (keeping average life expectancy the same), you yuuuugely increase the number of fake centenarians. Why? Because the tail doesn’t care about the average as much as the imprecision! https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1   Permalink 6:18 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Michael Gove is correct. I was told that the movie is an excellent subtitute for the book. https://twitter.com/thinkdefence/status/1163065296745353222   Permalink 5:47 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos I’m starting to empathise with @nntaleb in the vicious way he goes after people. Fuck niceties. The people who think fake meat will just get invented sans consequences are either naive ideologues or sociopaths who think it’s fun to tamper with this billions old ecosystem. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162857527358476289   Permalink 5:20 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb P-Hacking and the distribution of p-values, a 3 year old result still not understood by social “scientists”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   Permalink 4:24 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Please stop the “correlation is not causation” mantra. It’s worse: correlation is not correlation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=60s   Permalink 4:03 AM – 18 Aug 2019

@TulsiGabbard We’re at 162,648! Let’s surprise Tulsi when she gets back from National Guard active duty on August 26 by reaching 170,000! Let’s show her how much grassroots support there truly is for her and for her message of peace and prosperity for all! —TeamTulsi #TULSI2020 Permalink 4:51 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb https://math.stackexchange.com/q/3326461/88078?stw=2   Permalink 3:54 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity. Permalink 3:43 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb So many have sent me this tweet; here is my answer. Remember transfats? And another 0000s of these “obviously” safe thingies? I am really scared to live in a society in which people take @sapinker seriously. On anything. That’s all I have to say. pic.twitter.com/PBEs5vMVz6 Permalink 3:34 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@engler_j What a lovely and accurate summary of my work! by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/IU6seSTtJa Permalink 2:27 PM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb My Principia Politica is not out yet. Yet its terminology is having some impact! pic.twitter.com/GMxlIGzxAl Permalink 9:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb This is what people don’t get: smaller states don’t have minorities and majority rules eradicating them. Too much 19th century thinking. Actually France wanted Germany to be fragmented in 1945; they thought a Federation would be “weak”. https://twitter.com/BaalTheGreat/status/1162703300141244416?s=20   Permalink 9:19 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@DrGeneCallahan The Mule: Clint Eastwood becomes cartel’s top drug deliverer by following haphazard schedule. But new guy takes over and makes him follow exact route and timetable. Immediately caught! Over-optimization leads to disaster! @nntaleb Permalink 6:36 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@spyrosmakrid Dr. Sagner @MichaelSagnerMD and I are finalizing a paper on Uncertainty in Medicine, illustrated by the following two studies on treating mild HBP: One showing benefits and the other harm and a third discovering 396 medical reversals. How can lay people can deal with uncertainty? pic.twitter.com/QfwJpOSY25 Permalink 6:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Only #Localism works. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 5:42 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ireland, Czeck Rep., Slovakia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Cyprus… People get along better as neighbors than as roommates. Time for Syrians to understand the large Nation-State with “grandeur” & prestige has failed them, destroyed minorities. Small is beautiful. Permalink 5:07 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, incompetence wins over conspiracy. Always assume incompetence first. (There still may be some conspiracy.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/epstein-died-of-suicide-by-hanging-medical-examiner-says?srnd=premium   Permalink 4:48 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Syria should understand the notion of cutting the cancer & consider some partition East/West (currently taboo). You cannot spend the next decades taking then retaking Jihadi areas. ما حدا قسم و ندم! @EHSANI22 https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/1162588630654869505   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2019

@nntaleb When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1162213923673657351   Permalink 4:50 PM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb And ignore statements about “math geniuses with High IQ”. 1- how many high IQ can do math? 2- Ramanujan, Groethendieck, Mandelbrot were horrrrrrrible at standardized tests… has a mystical link to math… Permalink 8:34 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Reread and you will find it. Permalink 8:08 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb A metric that ONLY detects “below average” will show 80% correlation with performance. (corrected typos) pic.twitter.com/5N0K0mCDpP Permalink 7:51 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@vtchakarova ‘Skin in the Game’ and ‘Fooled by Randomness’ by @nntaleb in Sofia, Bulgaria. pic.twitter.com/TKrYmnGtWq Permalink 7:50 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A clearer presentation showing how a metric for disease can falsely masquerade as a metric for performance because “correlation” is not appropriate (and should NEVER be used) under nonlinearity. Something the Quillettebeciles don’t get. pic.twitter.com/whcdbdcO2M Permalink 7:39 AM – 16 Aug 2019

@garyruskin #Monsanto acts like it has a lot to hide. It had a 20-page #PR plan on how to “minimize impact of” and “minimize media coverage and publicity of” @careygillam’s book Whitewash, about Monsanto, #glyphosate and #Roundup. http://bit.ly/2Kz7oko   Permalink 3:01 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Meanwhile I’ve blocked trolls on both sides. https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1162112002271170560   Permalink 2:39 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Charles Murray is considered a Galileo of the racisticists, someone who provides scientific truths. He is just an intellectual fraud. These mistakes are on a SINGLE page in his book. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS”>  pic.twitter.com/vPm0tIyLNS Permalink 1:56 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman is the #1 BS buster in social science. https://twitter.com/Marvin_3/status/1162074581554872321   Permalink 12:03 PM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Review on Amazon. If you are going to be a BS vendor, make sure to not combine it with “race realism” and eugenics. https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3VL4SLVS56LB9/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X   Permalink 9:47 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@RyanHoliday “You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.” Nassim Taleb Permalink 8:00 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You are wasting time arguing about universal computation/Touring machines with the Quilletebeciles neonazis who interpretet as a blank slate argument. The Quilettebeciles don’t even get that you may bolster their argument since in practice there is a yuuge diff betw processors! Permalink 7:21 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Ignore journos: they can’t property scale moves, put them in perspective. The SP500 is still up >12% on the year. #SkinintheGame: Have to reveal I’ve been short HLF for more than a year. Fear of missing an opportunity, just in case Ackman turns out to be ultimately right. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@ArtOrthodox Dormition of the Theotokos #DormitionoftheTheotokos #JesusChrist #Theotokos #MotherofGod #Saints #byzantineorthodoxart #byzantine #icons #paintings #art #history #artwork #artworks pic.twitter.com/4npa1czwc7 Permalink 4:19 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@byzantinepower Aspirations of this account: – To extol the spiritual power of Orthodoxy & our ability to create Byz 2.0 Tendencies: – Venice bashing – HRE bashing – mocking idiots – foodpoasting Permalink 3:41 AM – 15 Aug 2019

@nntalebbot “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds” – @nntaleb Permalink 4:30 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@sf_LPSP You misunderstand and underestimate Taleb if you think this is any kind of outlierish or burdensome “axe to grind”, or even particularly personal. Taleb’s bread and butter- or rather olive oil- is lopping down logs of bullshit, and the axe is sharp for all comers. Permalink 4:09 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Very safe: I stopped in 2010 having dinners with social scientists. https://twitter.com/profmarkreed/status/1161638008837279745   Permalink 1:54 PM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb 2) You can be fooled by people, and you can be fooled by fields. For instance I was fooled by behavioral economics… pic.twitter.com/Fuh5od8bjB Permalink 11:40 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Why universality trumps IQ by @trishankkarthik https://link.medium.com/qi3xFAYD4Y   Permalink 10:57 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Classifying psychology as “science” reminds me of the Reagan Administration’s classification of Ketchup in school cafeterias as “vegetable”. We need to declassify. Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Asymmetry of BS detector: Friends, there have been many situations where I thought someone was solid, then realized I was mistaken as he turned out to be a bullshitter (e.g. NateS,PT,SP…) Can’t find reverse mistake: pple I thought were bullshitters but turned out to be solid. Permalink 7:45 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”>  pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm”>  pic.twitter.com/y21iI0YVpm Permalink 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Anyone saying 17 sigmas about Argentina has a problem. pic.twitter.com/n8EryQDePU Permalink 3:17 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@OtisManousakos And basically read everything from @nntaleb – His sometimes excessive hostility toward obnoxious academia aside, it’s hard for me to disparage him as he reminds me of every fucking Greek uncle I loved. When that phenotype smells bullshit, they tend to be brutal…and hilarious. Permalink 2:29 AM – 14 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Dear @WolframResearch, what’s the symbol for the MERVAL? Trying to get data …for obvious reasons. Thanks! pic.twitter.com/XqCpKfLkkR Permalink 1:51 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@gmax1mum Am I the only one that wants a full volume expansion of this section of Skin in the Game? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/Gg9LjHi9NS Permalink 1:39 PM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You should prevent Classic Liberalism from being exploited by the eugenists-“race realists” using it from cover for the Sinister agenda, particularly when they use science. Expurgate. Be tough. Liberty doesn’t entail genetic ranking. https://twitter.com/Firsou/status/1161283291137368064   Permalink 9:32 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@Firefly_fan Evolution of “Incerto” by @nntaleb (image 1 and 2). Some “affective” anecdote: the smell of black & golden version is very appealling for my hedonic perspective. It seems alive pic.twitter.com/pEB4vwMDTv Permalink 9:26 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Erudition is whatever is not academic in its acquisition and dispensation. In other words, lively, playful, useful, and nonnerdy. https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1161290791991611392   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@ektrit Explaining how Christianity spread when 99.9% of people were illiterate, it comes to mind that Taleb @nntaleb cannot be understood unless Erudition is understood. Permalink 7:57 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb What does a “(basic) law” mean in economics? Some “laws” seem to be empirical, others normative, some deduced from some arbitrary “principle”, a few pulled out of a hat. Permalink 7:06 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@thebigboulard Via Negativa et Antifragile appliqués à l’IT et à la Transformation digitale http://bit.ly/31KGMD1   via @lemagit @philipducellier @nntaleb Permalink 2:55 AM – 13 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Things are spiraling downward much, much faster than I thought. (This deleted tweet by Lehman Brothers was verified on Google cache; I thought it was a spoof). Next target? Some monstrous BS vending outfit I haven’t targeted yet. pic.twitter.com/OpWkJWAfeX Permalink 6:28 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@normonics No. Life is not a game. A game has explicit rules, constraints, win-states. Life does not. At best, implicit ones, but even then not static, not a given. The IQ obsessed have mistaken their little contrived game world with big messy reality. https://twitter.com/garettjones/status/1161047922793828352   Permalink 4:01 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@MKM_Abdul Meanwhile, a Black Swan quietly landed on Argentina’s stock market with a 48% one-day drop. https://twitter.com/business/status/1161010919008288769   Permalink 2:29 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Voila! Merci bien. pic.twitter.com/FpJv1WWhE9 Permalink 12:35 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla’s def. + stupid: someone who inflicts costs on others while not bringing benefits to himself/herself, even possibly incurring great costs. + bandit: inflicts costs on others but at some benefits to himself/herself. The stupid is vaaaaastly more dangerous than the bandit. Permalink 12:05 PM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/economie/les-etats-unis-doivent-adapter-leur-dispositif-antitrust-aux-geants-d-internet-20190811   (Je n’arrive pas a acheter l’article) Permalink 11:48 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There are always some subtle differences between a book and the corresponding film, owing to the requirements of the medium. https://twitter.com/IMAO_/status/1160658967825178624   Permalink 10:38 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb In other words: Cipolla’s 2nd Law: there is a ratio \sigma of stupid people, in all professions/groups/periods. My Q: is it like econ. inequality, same ratio, but different people? If you came back in 10 y, \sigma has new people (i.e ergodic). Does the stupid survive in group? Permalink 10:22 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Cipolla Permalink 10:00 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Writing a foreword to The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by Cippola: You always underestimate for any time/profession # of incompetent pple. Law: No matter how incompetent an editor is, there will be a pool of readers even more stupid who won’t notice. Q: is stupidity ergodic? https://twitter.com/sobu_18/status/1160946236767264768   Permalink 9:56 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@DonkeyJawPosse Walking via ⁦@nntaleb⁩ pic.twitter.com/dB5VuKgx9n Permalink 6:08 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb You hit on something: collective intelligence (groups) is orthogonal to individual ones because of scale transformation. Permalink 5:19 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@MarekADochnal @nntaleb never disappoints in fighting BS in its every living form. But even he isn’t iPhone-proof: see Murrat in his twit: the hybrid of Murray and Marshal Murat, King of Naples Permalink 4:21 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Murray also manages to BS about mathematics. A scholar! pic.twitter.com/loJG4ctyym Permalink 3:50 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Methods of the loci. If you want to remember math stuff, carry a durable physical notebook with standard theorems/graphs. You will associate the equation with a physical page. Permalink 3:07 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb There is a book by the Russian psychologist Luria about a prodigy who could remember tons. He mentally used maps 2D ->3D where each object to remember would be placed. When I look at a physical book in my library, I remember the contents! Even more when I hold it in my hands. Permalink 2:43 AM – 12 Aug 2019

@nntaleb Harder to remember stuff read on a screen. Needs 1 more dimension. https://twitter.com/jangold_/status/1160836414797492224   Permalink 2:23 AM – 12 Aug 2019

Sunstein, Stephens, Christian Trinity, Russians, Dodd Frank, Pompeo, Klueless Massimo, Hagia Sophia | Twitter

@trishankkarthik “In general, we have a lot of uncertainty about the world, but we have very little uncertainty about what to do.” — Another classic from @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 9:02 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb Mafik téktob el lughat el Europiyyé bil7arf el 3arabé. L Atrak jarrabo l7arf llatiné zabatét ma3on la2nno fi ktir kilmét Europiyyé 3indon, mitl 3inna. Permalink 8:05 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb The traditional mission of the journalist is to 1) be independent, 2) fight power on behalf of citizens. We are getting, with very few exceptions, cowards who worry about their reputation & are afraid to fight the monoculture. Permalink 4:49 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb Ahamm shi bil legha ma ma3rwf min weyn jéyé bas na3rwf weyn banna nekhda! Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb The great Andrew Gelman @StatModeling catches the chronic nudgeboy @CassSunstein in an explosion of BShttp://andrewgelman.com/2018/05/26/click-find-2-top-researchers-hyped-work-nyt-op-ed/   Permalink 3:25 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb Hiyyé lfikra hon latéfhamo ma 3am ni7ké 3arabé bass legha a3ta2 minna ktir.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 2:53 AM – 28 May 2018

@nntaleb Don’t have the courage. It’s all about courage. https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1000757154616197121   Permalink 6:06 PM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb Ma zabatét abl ma3 sa3id 3a2l, halla2 rej3ét lfikra tettabba2, ma3 1) el-social media w 2) mawt mashru3 l 3urubé bi Lebnén (w Suriyya’l gharbiyyé). Wa2ta halla2. “An idea whose time has come”. Permalink 5:11 PM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb This BS Vendor @BretStephensNYT is so mean & stupid that it makes the case for @elonmusk’s project to force journos to have skin in the game.https://twitter.com/bretstephensnyt/status/1000368955532378112   Permalink 10:57 AM – 27 May 2018

@AndrewNoymer Rachel Carson lead us to reckoning with DDT, a component of the first “green revolution”. I hope the day of reckoning is coming for glyphosate, neonicotinoids, etc., and the agricultural GMOs that drive their demand.https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/26/opinion/sunday/insects-bugs-naturalists-scientists.html   Permalink 10:19 AM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb Lfar2 béyn l legha wl lahjé hiyyé bass l kitébé. Ktubo bil lebnéné/Neo-Ken3ané/Neo-Fini2é. Ma tste7o min leghét jdudkon! Ma tste7o! Ana la7 tarjém kitbé 3al Néo-Ken3ané. Permalink 8:59 AM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb Turned out, I was invited, but the invitation was in my unopened mail folder. Maybe I should start reading my mail.https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/status/1000351347395518464   Permalink 6:09 AM – 27 May 2018

@nntaleb To summarize the central problem addressed in my technical book. pic.twitter.com/DvX5BRM05r Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 May 2018

@DrK_W1984 3/3…and I’m hopeful it provides a way to understand and encourage religious/ atheist tolerance. #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com/zXYL5uDiKc Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 May 2018

@RJMourinha “Don’t waste time trying to get an A because you’re not going to remember all that shit.” @nntaleb speaks with @tylercowen for @cowenconvos (via @farnamstreet)https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/tyler-cowen-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-in-the-game-black-swan-104620da8a57?source=userActivityShare-bd38f1557777-1527418371   Permalink 4:05 AM – 27 May 2018

@KarinLitzcke Speaking of this amazing interview, in it, @nntaleb also clarifies the nature of the tensions underlying a pesky, long-standing and ongoing series of conflicts: pic.twitter.com/PRZtQ1CnTu Permalink 2:27 PM – 26 May 2018

@KarinLitzcke In this wide-ranging interview, @nntaleb explains in a single paragraph what armchair academic critics of @jordanbpeterson miss about why he connects w public & they don’t:https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/tyler-cowen-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-in-the-game-black-swan-104620da8a57   Permalink 2:12 PM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb This seems to be a good summary for those of us who lost interest.https://usa.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/for-your-eyes-only-a-short-history-of-democrat-spy-collusion/   Permalink 10:16 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb From Silent Risk pic.twitter.com/pOsJ1UZ3zv Permalink 7:59 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb Something they also don’t get about impatience: survivorship bias. Delaying gratification means also taking much, much more hidden risks (“a bird in the hand”). In human nature vs psychologists, ignore psychologists. See Silent Risk.https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1000161206383009793   Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb “If you want people to buy a book tell them it’s overrated” [Bed of Procrustes] “Buy houses they call overpriced; read books called overrated; invest in markets called irrational; do things you enjoy that they can’t explain.”https://twitter.com/Samueltadros/status/1000099997097037825   Permalink 7:12 AM – 26 May 2018

@lee_alley You know, I’ve read innumerable philosophers, theologians, religious people, authors, for years & no one has gotten the Christian trinity in a one-er as succinctly as ex-trader & something-or-the-other guru @nntaleb https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/tyler-cowen-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-in-the-game-black-swan-104620da8a57   3 sentences to distill 3 Moltmann books! Permalink 5:54 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb Watch out: I block nitpickers, particularly those who nitpick aphorisms. Gabish? Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb (No, the point is that complaining is what losers do.) Permalink 3:51 AM – 26 May 2018

@nntaleb You want your enemies to complain about you. The more they complain, the better. Permalink 3:44 AM – 26 May 2018

@BrankoMilan And I doubt very much self-reported trust indicators (which these studies use) because I think it is only _behavior_ of people which matters not what people say they believe. (Not original; @nntaleb makes the same point.) Permalink 1:49 PM – 25 May 2018

@nntaleb 1) Pinker doesn’t understand statistical significance, bul**ts about it when caught. 2) Science = statistically significant. Gabish?https://twitter.com/j_jason_bell/status/1000005147660087296   Permalink 7:40 AM – 25 May 2018

@nntaleb Russian Keto: pork fat, unapologetic. Helps with both keto and drinking. pic.twitter.com/KKXlCVYsuh Permalink 11:32 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb A little bit of background on why you need to learn to get drunk with Russianshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577?source=linkShare-f138bf5466fe-1527186538   Permalink 11:29 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb Getting drunk with Russians! pic.twitter.com/Iw8t2Gonp7 Permalink 10:14 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb Paper was accepted by a journal. I accidentally submitted it in place of another file and just got the report. Permalink 8:36 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb Saint Petersburgh, todayhttps://twitter.com/IgnacioYbanez/status/999638587657342976   Permalink 8:09 AM – 24 May 2018

@IgnacioYbanez @nntaleb insiste en la fragilidad de las cosas, pero también en la repetición de las cosas. Ahora las tablets han sustituido a los ordenadores que sustituyeron a los libros, pero las tablets nos recuerdan las tablas que utilizaban los antiguos @SPIEF pic.twitter.com/HADimE5ljS Permalink 6:05 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb Riskiere deine Haut oder schweig https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/riskiere-deine-haut-oder-schweig-ld.1387508   via @nzz Permalink 3:11 AM – 24 May 2018

@nntaleb I am game! Under the condition that the public is never anonymous. Skin in the game all the way. Permalink 4:30 PM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb Yuuuuuuge conversation with @tylercowen (but photos don’t show recent 8lbs weight loss!) https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/tyler-cowen-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-in-the-game-black-swan-104620da8a57   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/jo9YnsElKu”>  pic.twitter.com/jo9YnsElKu Permalink 3:35 PM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb Fi ktir ktir amtél bil-lébnéné ghayra.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/999256588396482560   Permalink 3:05 PM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb лучший музей в мире pic.twitter.com/LsiToosq96 Permalink 5:36 AM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb Bye Bye Dodd Frank, good riddance: pages & pages of regulations, nothing about skin in the game. Skin in the game >> all other regulations. pic.twitter.com/b1X90zT2iO Permalink 4:49 AM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb And another truth: linguists use circular definitions. Not science.https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c?source=linkShare-f138bf5466fe-1527061227   Permalink 12:41 AM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb The great truth: in countries whose official language is “Arabic”, Arabic is a 3rd language (except for Peninsula, v. religious pple & scholars): people are triglossic: easier to read/write in English/Turkish/French than in Arabic. Time for countries to use their own language. Permalink 12:22 AM – 23 May 2018

@nntaleb Two GMO campaigners smearing me turned out to be abusers/spouse beaters. I don’t find it ethical to use it against them & their opinions. Likewise if a scientist has crazy ideas on race w/which I disagree, I would excoriate him, but never deny his other contributions. Gabish?https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/998957877577568256   Permalink 9:19 AM – 22 May 2018

@nntaleb Aside from klueless Massimo’s usual unrigorous utterances: car mechanics, dentists, & plumbers are checked by users, can’t BS for a living (#skininthegame), BOTH at the level of individual & profession. Philosophers are checked by one another, hence citation ring & BS vending.https://twitter.com/mpigliucci/status/998610671095951360   Permalink 7:27 AM – 22 May 2018

@nntaleb BUREAUCRAT-WARMONGER CLASS WITHOUT SKIN IN THE GAME Mr Pompeo, these ignorant & agressive actions to “promote peace security” have been promoting instability. Bureaucrats like you never learn from past mistakes, are not subjected to evolutionary selection.https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/996876381983268866   Permalink 4:31 AM – 22 May 2018

@jaolavebo As reiterated in @nntaleb literature… Landmark lawsuit claims Monsanto hid cancer danger of weedkiller for decadeshttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/22/monsanto-trial-cancer-weedkiller-roundup-dewayne-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 3:40 AM – 22 May 2018

@nntaleb Bone marrow pic.twitter.com/Yk6uh4BBG8 Permalink 5:19 PM – 21 May 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule, most “regrets” after one is caught’s aren’t regrets about having committed the action, but regrets about having been caught. Apologies count only when they are spontaneous, coming out of deep principles. Otherwise they are just an expression of submission. Permalink 3:09 PM – 21 May 2018

@ThomasSieckmann @nntaleb is this Fat Tony’s car?https://twitter.com/covenentlite/status/998663143026020352   Permalink 3:07 PM – 21 May 2018

@nntaleb You need to buy a copy of @davidgraeber’s “Bul***t Jobs”, about jobs that, if they didn’t exist, wouldn’t have to be invented. But there are b***t professions that can be eliminated w/o harm (& w/gains) Which is the most “b***t” profession? Permalink 9:45 AM – 20 May 2018

@nntaleb Reviews that get it are starting to come ‘Skin in the Game’: A Political Treatise for Liberty that Turns the Golden Rule Upside-Down | Arnold Kling https://fee.org/articles/skin-in-the-game-a-political-treatise-for-liberty-that-turns-the-golden-rule-upside-down/   via @feeonline Permalink 8:55 AM – 20 May 2018

@nntaleb Complication w/o insight: Taking gloves off in my new technical but antiacademic book: uncensored thanks to pub house w @TuckerMax. Emergence of ProbabilityTwitter w/ @HarryDCrane, @ole_b_peters RealWldRisk co-founder @financequant & others fighting for clarity over nonsense. pic.twitter.com/MOM6aOIczf Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 May 2018

@KourdaN As a government employee, I have to say that I hate everything I am reading in SITG, mostly because it is painfully true. Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 May 2018

@nntaleb Nerds posting about Skin in the Game: “… but he is very, very rude to academics” do not realize that it actually makes people more interested in the book. Permalink 6:55 AM – 20 May 2018

@Castello_F Los aforismos de @nntalebhttp://www.elmundo.es/papel/cultura/2018/04/01/5ac0a99de5fdea620d8b45ab.html   Permalink 3:35 AM – 20 May 2018

@carlcarrie Excellent empirical paper co-authored by forecasting luminary Makridakis (@spyrosmakrid) on Machine Learning prediction – results suggest #ml is still in its infancy with lower relative performance to statistical & naive methods but with great potential http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Mat7JbCWbo”>  pic.twitter.com/Mat7JbCWbo Permalink 5:32 PM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb By contrast I went 2x on a group offsite w/the Swedish King (who is not considered part of the royal thingy in Europe), to discuss the Precautionary Pple. He flew economy w/us, then took a chartered bus. No instruction list. Permalink 4:26 PM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb I was invited for “tea” with a certain member of that royal family. I was handed instructions on how to behave, what to say, how to address him, who eats 1st, meaning to signal at all times that I was inferior. I found it unbearable & humiliating, broke the rules. But still. Permalink 4:14 PM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb I have some trouble figuring out the Brits: they are maximally politically correct & progressive in small things, yet accept to be (nominally) mere subjects of a hereditary royal family. They practically worship their present & future monarch. Permalink 3:28 PM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb The advantage of writing on your own terms: you can fully control the aesthetics. Writing in Latex resembles painting. New model: publishing under “STEM ACADEMIC PRESS”, an outfit for peer-reviewed texts, w/the business aspect controlled by @TuckerMax’s firm. pic.twitter.com/XMAGeqAsiA Permalink 12:41 PM – 19 May 2018

@CMikaelThompson True; @nntaleb gives best explanation of Christological debates in early centuries of the Church.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/997462528576905216   Permalink 10:38 AM – 19 May 2018

@nntaleb Closing in. Slowly. Like a detective story. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-25912-9.pdf   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/olsFGqb5PP”>  pic.twitter.com/olsFGqb5PP Permalink 9:02 AM – 19 May 2018

@ICCS2018 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Real World Risk Institute) has been confirmed as a speaker for #ICCS2018 @nntaleb #complexity #risk #SpeakerSeries Permalink 8:00 AM – 19 May 2018

@MargoWatroba Still on @nntaleb kick – it will be a while till I move on. One of my favorite quotes… “If you have more than one reason to do something (choose a doctor or veterinarian, hire a gardener or an employee, marry a person, go on a trip), just don’t do it.(…)” pic.twitter.com/zr1flH8RXt Permalink 9:03 PM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/DScW7Cv0gf Permalink 5:09 PM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb The genetic prehistory of the Greater Caucasushttps://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/05/16/322347   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb From Skin In the Gamehttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 11:36 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb So if you like the NYT’s advocacy because it fits your orientation, you will give them a free pass for now. But you will overcompensate & distrust them heavily once they diverge ever so slightly from your views. Advocacy is not robust for a newspaper. Permalink 10:17 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb By explicitly choosing a “mission” & advocacy rather than sticking to journalism, the NYT & others have lost their only asset: public trust.https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/997429518867591170   Permalink 9:50 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb Our precautionary principle explained: how to worry ONLY about systemic fat-tails.https://twitter.com/LaurenceScialom/status/997498493458616320   Permalink 8:28 AM – 18 May 2018

@nntaleb Michael Bonner’s review (he is a classical scholar). pic.twitter.com/0crubemWkQ Permalink 6:02 AM – 18 May 2018

@john_f_hamer “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matter are those who’ve never had real world experience.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink 11:17 PM – 17 May 2018

@SamuelGWalters Suppose that g:R -> R is a continuous function on the reals such that g(2x) = 2g(x) for all x. Does it follow that g(3x) = 3g(x) for all x? #math Permalink 8:16 PM – 17 May 2018

@DrMichaelBonner BREAKING NEWS! A draft offprint of my review of @nntaleb’s “Skin in the Game” to appear soon in The Dorchester Review (@DorchesterRev). I always try to take an unusual route into a topic. So I began here w/ the wisdom texts of the Akkadian Empire…https://www.academia.edu/36659057/Aphorisms_from_Antique_Lands   Permalink 6:27 PM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb The PDF will be available for free. Hard cover in color at about $20-30. Permalink 9:39 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb INCERTO’S TECHNICAL COMPANION, Vol 1 is almost complete. Only a matter of fixing the aesthetics, figuring out how to publish. pic.twitter.com/NVJOp583Jh Permalink 8:40 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb Given that @mpigliucci keeps spreading his article, here is the response.https://medium.com/opacity/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 7:34 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb 4) In Mount Lebanon, Maronites & Shiites used to share a (Jewish) Neder (ندر, נדר), a pledge: if one child survives a threatening disease, the family performs some rituals or name child according to the other religion, sometimes even convert. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neder   Permalink 6:49 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb 3) Differentiation of religions is new, caused by communication, exploding w/internet. Doura Europos: same room doubled as temple/synagogue/church. It had human representations. Pple could be all 3, or combination. Religion was much more local than global, pre-Saudi Barbaria. Permalink 6:38 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb 2) Some remnants of gnostic religions: Alevis, Alawis, Druze, etc. still maintain the Pagan practice of substituting religions: each individual can syncretize when in a Christian or Muslim environment. Permalink 6:32 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb 1) Problem w/modern monotheism (including a Protestant heresy called atheism) is the increased integrality, the “either/or”: you can’t be ⅓ Jewish, ⅓ Sunni, ⅓ Prostestant & rotate betw rituals. You can take pre-packaged syncretism: Cath/Orthodoxy/Shias but still indivisible. Permalink 6:24 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb Cuisine MAPS to culture, shows a difference betw “East Med” & “Middle East”. Stop mixing the 2: EAST MED (Turkey, Greece, Levant): olive oil, organo/basil/other herbs, wine, bread, hummus, squid ink, semi-f*** you attitude MIDDLE EAST (Arabia, Iraq, etc.): rarely the above.https://twitter.com/_mmgh/status/997058520867528704   Permalink 3:33 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb Friends, how can one consolidate this tweetstorm with all answers? Thankshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/993144954032619521   Permalink 3:26 AM – 17 May 2018

@nntaleb An interesting result from a problem from @cuttheknot. pic.twitter.com/RJ61FlCvPQ Permalink 5:46 PM – 16 May 2018

@GreenRupertRead BREAKING: The upper house votes by 294 to 244 to preserve the E.U. environmental principles (incl the Precautionary Principle), to legally back animal sentience, and to have a genuinely strong environmental watchdog. >Result!< (Please RT) Permalink 9:24 AM – 16 May 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Amoeba’s survival https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/AmoebaSurvival.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/xv1u2JyHf5″>  pic.twitter.com/xv1u2JyHf5 Permalink 8:58 AM – 16 May 2018

@ektrit Correct. European Historiography is still suffering the invention of the word “Byzantine” and its application retroactively of the previous 15 centuries from the 19th and 20th century for political purposes. We owe to Taleb @nntaleb that discovery in general. Permalink 3:31 AM – 16 May 2018

@ektrit Absolutely believable. I endorse this article.https://twitter.com/Medievalists/status/996654483789766656   Permalink 12:41 AM – 16 May 2018

@nntaleb The worst possible thing you can teach someone is standard statistics without the mathematics of probability to rederive estimators. You end up with all the problems of fooled by randomness: few realize that p values are often BS.https://twitter.com/a_lesniewski/status/996493533216477188   Permalink 2:05 PM – 15 May 2018

@trishankkarthik This is the most interesting Twitter thread I’ve read all week. You have no idea how much I’ve learned about the colour blue this week.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/996389272721772545   Permalink 7:34 AM – 15 May 2018

@nntaleb The Levantine word for “dark” (for skin, shades of color, etc.) is ghami2 is the same as “deep” (diff from Arabic), from Semitic root עָמוֹק. The werb ghammi2 = to go deep underwater or underground. ghame2 غامق becomes عميق (3amiq) in Arabic. Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 May 2018

@nntaleb REVISED OK, OK, needs to be a closed form fuction, with a closed form inverse. pic.twitter.com/D2JLvJGOuu Permalink 5:44 AM – 14 May 2018

@nntaleb @EGHaug and I showed how Financial economists were destroying knowledge as we had a far more sophisticated option trading heuristics (that deal with fat tails) before the standardized bad Gaussian statistics of Black Scholes. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268110001927   Permalink 5:07 AM – 14 May 2018

@nntaleb BREAKING THE CHAIN OF TRANSMISSION In the past people in finance used to learn rich heuristics from elders who picked up from elders, etc. These days they learn from an ignorant B School professor who learned from books. The same with medicine.https://twitter.com/mikeharrisNY/status/995959122217517056   Permalink 2:46 AM – 14 May 2018

@nntaleb Math Explorations: Looking for all members of the class of unbounded monotone increasing concave functions. cc:@CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/i2X7w1JNz9 Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 May 2018

@ektrit Or being Taleb @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/SowellDaily/status/995634188186521601   Permalink 4:59 AM – 13 May 2018

@nntaleb To illustrate that the “health benefits” of the Mediterranean diet aren’t in the diet: people spend their lives climbing stairs and doing intermittent fasts. pic.twitter.com/Fn1cydJZaV Permalink 3:47 AM – 13 May 2018

@nntaleb The health benefits of the “Mediterranean diet” aren’t in the food: people spend their lives climbing stairs and steep hills. Permalink 3:45 AM – 13 May 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with @Twhittermarsh is that Greeks had a very primitive color vocabulary to generate reliable spectral conclusions. No color blue until late. Look at family names: in Levant Aswad/Asmar/Ash2ar, or in France Lenoir, Lebrun, Leblanc, Leblond, etc. Permalink 2:10 AM – 13 May 2018

@nntaleb Attention GMO idiots, “scientism” promoters, & Monsantoists: side effects show up late. There is a methodology to figure out if something has a potentially bad systemic effect. There are zillions of way to deal with nature without messing it up. See http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ucEWPxOnrs”>  pic.twitter.com/ucEWPxOnrs Permalink 2:03 AM – 13 May 2018

@normonics Localism. Localism is not superior due to first-order benefits The contrary, Localism is often superior because it is only in local environments that one has the opportunity to detect and respond to n-order effects Permalink 2:03 PM – 12 May 2018

@CutTheKnotMath An Inequality with Two Variables from Awesome Math https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Algebra/InequalityInTwoVariablesFromAwesomeMath.shtml   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/712HisYgy6″>  pic.twitter.com/712HisYgy6 Permalink 7:52 AM – 12 May 2018

@Rhiju Hey @livemint , not sure if @nntaleb would agree with you depicting ‘Skin in the Game’ as a men’s fashion item in today’s frontpage. pic.twitter.com/vcFsiXWOYY Permalink 1:45 AM – 12 May 2018

@nntaleb Belated posting of the NYU Tandon class party (students and former students). pic.twitter.com/pHwqT4hTeJ Permalink 10:13 AM – 11 May 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese loan words from Turkish, often Persan, Italian or French (Arabists & postcolonial low-IQ types don’t realize many French words came via Turkish) Professions ending with -ji: bustaji, kindarji. Sofra Oda Dukkan Trabzin Franco-Venitian: Nimra Balkon Assenseur Coiffeur Permalink 11:47 PM – 10 May 2018

@nntaleb What happens when you ovelay the autosomal on the J2 haplogroup? Gives us an idea of East Med. Like a detective story. (Very very preliminary). pic.twitter.com/dkjqEmI7xd Permalink 1:28 PM – 10 May 2018

@nntaleb The busiest museum section I’ve ever visited pic.twitter.com/RJrjVjkLgd Permalink 4:48 AM – 10 May 2018

@normonics Centralized, Industrialized Agriculture as epitomized in GMO industry is truly truly top-down-soviet-harvard-style-fragility Something libertarian-minded folks need to understand. # 8,9https://twitter.com/notwokieleaks/status/994301722884542464   Permalink 8:58 PM – 9 May 2018

@TropicalMBA Forget giving your opinion of @nntaleb ‘s newest book (https://amzn.to/2CHg9Sd  ), simply report how many times you’ve read it. (2, and counting…) #skininthegame Permalink 11:21 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb Given what we starting to know about ancient DNA thanks to Reich, @iosif_lazaridis & colleagues, we should start downgrading these verbose, confused, accounts & fabrications by classicists & historians. Greeks then were very, very similar to Greeks (& Western Turks) todayhttps://twitter.com/Twhittermarsh/status/994190192251633664   Permalink 9:49 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/GhassanDahhan/status/994207500214964229   Permalink 8:34 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb The classical world is Western Asia/ Mediterranean. Little to do with “Europe” except for an anachronistic narrative. Permalink 6:13 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/drmichaelbonner/status/993884402265534464?s=21   Permalink 6:11 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/lekapenos/status/993886833363832832?s=21   Permalink 6:10 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb I am standing next to the Bosphorus. The other side is Asia. So if the BBC wanted to do a Mary Beard style historical film, shd they cat pple from Stockholm for this side & pple from Tokyo on the other? “Europe” is a miscategory. Western Eurasia-Med is the proper ecology. pic.twitter.com/GdCyKxjYel Permalink 6:09 AM – 9 May 2018

@DA_Stockman Iran Wants War—You Can Tell By How Close They Put Their Country To Washington’s Military Bases! http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/iran-wants-war-you-can-tell-by-how-close-they-put-their-country-to-washingtons-military-bases/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/upfDmKgMkP”>  pic.twitter.com/upfDmKgMkP Permalink 5:31 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb Only bad news on pilgrimage to Hagia Sophia: 8 columns of porphyry — red marble —taken from the temple of Jupiter in Baalbeck Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/PFHzQYrr3T Permalink 5:25 AM – 9 May 2018

@nntaleb You claim you came for the history; the real reason is the loukums: pic.twitter.com/3LsIeB1YMk Permalink 3:10 AM – 9 May 2018

@Lekapenos Exactly! The concept of Europe is a byproduct of the Classical world which was not limited to Europe ffs under any definition ffshttps://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/993884402265534464   Permalink 9:14 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb Val Giddings @prometheusgreen is documented to be a true evil Monsanto shill. We detected the shoddiness when he poured standard negative comments about our Precautionary paper w/o having read it. Paid to spread msg: “pesticides=science” and smear scientists. Despicable!https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/993845578823069696   Permalink 8:17 AM – 8 May 2018

@elalterego01 Monsanto’s WMD is showing it’s longterm effects in humans https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/08/weedkiller-tests-monsanto-health-dangers-active-ingredient   , thank you @nntaleb for uncover this people Permalink 7:49 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb Lebanese elections: 6 women elected, 2 Christian, 4 Muslim pic.twitter.com/pVzxYuSr5R Permalink 7:45 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb Only 5 lbs! Permalink 7:06 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb Merhaba, Kalamar mürekkebini burada (İstanbul’da) iyi bir lokantada nerede bulabilirim? Teşekkürler Permalink 7:03 AM – 8 May 2018

@nntaleb I lost weight.https://twitter.com/ozge_ozbalaban/status/993740535797112832   Permalink 11:37 PM – 7 May 2018

@zeinshami11 When @nntaleb first started hating the NYT pic.twitter.com/gD71HFe38c Permalink 10:12 AM – 7 May 2018

@nntaleb No, overeducated knuckleheads: If you can’t solve the problem, don’t take tail risks on it. WTF is it so hard to get?https://twitter.com/CodexApulum/status/993402031833575424   Permalink 7:19 AM – 7 May 2018

@nntaleb The nickname for the city Permalink 3:24 AM – 7 May 2018

@nntaleb Dünya güzeli Permalink 3:16 AM – 7 May 2018

@nntaleb 5) The contrast for Wells was betw Michelangelo & the cuckoo clock. Next step: we can contrast grand design (French “enlightenment”) vs something small that works: cuckoo clocks. Permalink 2:51 PM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb 4) CH Cuckoo Clock vs French Terror, starting with: “In CH, they had brotherly love, they had 500y of democracy & peace – and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.” (O.Welles) Next level: universalism vs fractal particularism. Big ideas vs practical ones. Permalink 2:41 PM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb There are no successful and unsuccessful people. A few ones are just trying to be someone else. Permalink 12:28 PM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb And another one, written by a professionalhttps://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/05/14/risk-and-business/   Permalink 10:49 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb 3) is there or has there been any country where power is as distributed as CH? (Consider size of political sub-unit). Permalink 9:36 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, meant CH Permalink 8:09 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Friends, a CHF discussion thread. 1) Is Switzerland the only modern state that was entirely built from the bottom up? What are the main differences with pre-Bismark Germany other than CHF never had a Bismark? Did Napoleon actually DE-Centralize CHF? Permalink 8:06 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Look at this emergence of a lognormal, turning into power law (in progress) pic.twitter.com/KOPLypi5pF Permalink 7:24 AM – 6 May 2018

@dougvk ‘modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsibility’ – @nntaleb Permalink 7:05 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Another one, written by a professionalhttps://swarajyamag.com/magazine/distrust-the-know-it-all-iyi   Permalink 6:28 AM – 6 May 2018

@nntaleb Had lunch w/a student of Marc Kac. Kac & Von Neumann were driving to the airport. VN who was driving fughot to stop at a light. A fierce cop pulled them over. Cop: Where are you going like this? VN: Istanbul The cop, confused, let them off VN: See, it pays to say the truth! Permalink 2:56 PM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb Remarkably, it is still a Mandelbrot set.https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/991948733628731392   Permalink 2:16 PM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule, whenever your intuition conflicts with that of an economist, bet on your intuition. Economists are reverse indicators: they are ~always wrong. pic.twitter.com/RCEoyT9bv6 Permalink 7:13 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb In the process I am discovering that, because of the vowels é and o that don’t exist in Arabic, the Latin (actually Phoenician) script is vastly more effective! We need to set standards that match what pple use on social media. Permalink 6:43 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb Translating the Bed of Procrustes into Neo-Phoenician/Canaanite. For comments pic.twitter.com/KRrVgsxjXz Permalink 6:36 AM – 5 May 2018

@Megadogyourmom4 pic.twitter.com/qJaSCgBTsB Permalink 4:49 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/SecondFoundn/status/992728524241879040   Permalink 4:48 AM – 5 May 2018

@RUGBY_STR_COACH When @Physical_Prep & @RUGBY_STR_COACH meet in argentina to discuss #skininthegame, to deadlift and eat red meat. It can only mean #flanneuringaroundtheworld. Respect to the godfather @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/VlsHdLe1Zg Permalink 4:14 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb The evidence…https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/981790838488485888   Permalink 4:09 AM – 5 May 2018

@nntaleb There is no known instance of an [PUT NAME HERE: Italian, etc.] calling themselves an [PUT NAME HERE: Italian, etc.], particularly if their literature isn’t extant. In fact such a claim abt Phoenicians (Canaanites) is false: see thread.https://twitter.com/bintbattuta/status/992406321591877632   Permalink 4:07 AM – 5 May 2018

@TMFStoffel Never seen the bulk of @nntaleb’s work summed up so cleanlyhttps://mises.org/wire/under-skin#.WuzBKwLdPOQ.twitter   Permalink 7:00 PM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb Now the “organic” book reviews are coming by the load (now that, 3 months later, the press can no longer review the book). Organic book review: written by someone genuinely interested in the topic, not some hack.https://twitter.com/publicsenat/status/992505896902148096   Permalink 2:19 PM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb Every time you give up on Trump, something surprising happens.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/992439127781072896   Permalink 11:17 AM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb Why did @republicofmath get so upset over this? Permalink 11:12 AM – 4 May 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Let them be integers too pic.twitter.com/GlmJ0ib6D6 Permalink 11:06 AM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb #FF Instead of enrolling in a boring math or probability class, follow MathTwitter, particularly Maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 7:35 AM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb I treat my friends as temporary pre-enemies, my enemies as temporary pre-friends, and my post-friends as permanent enemies. Permalink 7:18 AM – 4 May 2018

@nntaleb And, by the way, this is our GMO page http://fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb Fraud: This low-intellect journo, @MJGerson, devoid of scientific reasoning, claims to speaking in the name of *Science* and arbitrate what is pro or anti-science. Good news: idiots like him bring attention to GMOs: tell someone “nothing to worry about” & see how he reacts.https://twitter.com/MJGerson/status/992196603753754624   Permalink 5:59 PM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink pic.twitter.com/leuCdZ5Rtm Permalink 5:00 PM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb No, no, no. The “empirical distribution is NOT empirical. Seehttps://www.academia.edu/36550958/The_Darwin_College_Cambridge_Lecture_Series_on_Extremes   Permalink 1:48 PM – 3 May 2018

@NonMeek Today’s #Offshorecomic with a dash of @nntaleb wisdom sprinkled on top. #academia For more visit http://www.offshorecomic.com   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KEpFnOCJrl”>  pic.twitter.com/KEpFnOCJrl Permalink 10:09 AM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb On #WorldPressFreedomDay let us stand in solidarity with the journalists murdered, tortured, and imprisoned by the Trump administration. Permalink 9:51 AM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb We didn’t break the mafia by reasoning w/its members. Remember: you’ll never break special intrsts, lobbies, journalistic monoculturists & academic rent seekers by convincing them, but 1) by exposing them, 2) working on their customers. Accountability, put Skin in their game. Permalink 5:59 AM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb Closing in even more. How spoken Lebanese is closer to Syriac in structure. Nerd linguists Arabists s.a. @PhDniX or @lameensouag 1) aren’t even fluent in spoken Lebanese or Syriac (#skininthegame) 2) nor able to understand orthogonality to get it.https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/991422390679818241   Permalink 4:27 AM – 3 May 2018

@nntaleb 3) Herodian etc. Are Arabists stupid? Most certainly. pic.twitter.com/ZiPw7rRtFP Permalink 3:30 PM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb 2) Berytus was called Laodicea in Phoenice. We had the 2 provinces Phoenicia Maritima /Phoenicia Libanensis Zaharias pic.twitter.com/D7GOj3byl4 Permalink 3:29 PM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb (cont) To see why social scientists are dangerous & make you do the opposite, look at this BS.https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/955058991662551040   Permalink 2:44 PM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Added a section to explain that Goldman Sachs survived for 149 years by explicitly avoiding SOME tail risks and taking a lot of other risks. pic.twitter.com/Qk2f7GG6Ai Permalink 2:43 PM – 2 May 2018

@animeshs Sometimes you come across lines that carry so much truth in such less words, that you can’t help but wish put them on a frame! Here is one such from #skininthegame from @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/sEiP5N9DTG Permalink 11:10 AM – 2 May 2018

@tlhote « Le rôle de la Presse est de représenter les citoyens face au pouvoir et non pas d’exercer le pouvoir sur les citoyens. La Presse ne joue plus ce rôle. Twitter permet à des citoyens comme moi d’aller contre les pouvoirs. » Et Macron veut contrôler la parole française sur le Webhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/991660644222021632   Permalink 9:24 AM – 2 May 2018

@Musa_alGharbi @nntaleb Ta-Nehisi Coates’ work empowers academics, media types, social elites to revel in a “dystopian fantasy world under the pretense of ‘keeping it real’ — and get all the perks of religious fundamentalism without ever putting any #skininthegame” :https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/05/social-scientists-liberal-bias-creates-narrow-understanding-of-problems/   Permalink 8:35 AM – 2 May 2018

@trishankkarthik Also, funny how journos defend “freedom of information” when it’s revenge porn targeting weak college girls, but not… speech.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/991655262296690688   Permalink 6:50 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Meanwhile, Social Media allows me to make reviewers accountable by exposing the READING COMPREHENSION problems for some reviewers. Reviews come and go, errors by reviewers stay. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/Reviewers.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/KFtcSD69pD”>  pic.twitter.com/KFtcSD69pD Permalink 6:09 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Role of the Press: Represent citizens agst power, not exercize power over citizens. Press lost the role. Twitter allows CITIZENS like me to go against powers: Big Ag (Monsanto) Militarism & Saudi lobbies Social science/Academia BS Bankers & The Press!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/991283306233843712   Permalink 5:48 AM – 2 May 2018

@spyrosmakrid I am organizing a big competition (http://www.m4.unic.ac.cy  ) with 100,000 to determine the relative accuracy of ML versus stat methods. If you do not believe the current paper wait until the end of May Permalink 5:38 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb More and more details showing Charlatan Lynas (@mark_lynas) to be a shoddy character –from his reaction to any threat to the agri-chemical interests and his techniques to smear people & scientists.https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/991656050540429313   Permalink 5:35 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Footnote in SKIN IN THE GAME, on how the Press will self-destruct because it is acting against its own public. pic.twitter.com/IG3KPCqWnc Permalink 5:26 AM – 2 May 2018

@nntaleb Take-away from the Gawker episode: Most of the press sided w/Gawker vs citizens; citizens sided ag. Gawker. Severe agency problem: Press working against citizens! Agency Principle: doctor shd never side w/interests of his profession when they conflict w/those of patients. Permalink 5:18 AM – 2 May 2018

@jordantpine As someone who has often compared hundreds of product *surveys* to product *sales,* I can testify that this axiom from @nntaleb’s #skininthegame is unquestionably true. pic.twitter.com/jywd7xtBr1 Permalink 5:20 PM – 1 May 2018

@SeloSlav @nntaleb’s growing popularity online, especially on Twitter, can be partially explained by the fact that he effectively channels the “esprit de NEET” at a God-tier level.https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/991286192762249216   Permalink 4:41 PM – 1 May 2018

@naval Twitter is television for intellectuals. Permalink 9:19 PM – 30 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This is skin in the gamehttps://twitter.com/chicaderock/status/990991126097285120   Permalink 10:28 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@MimeticValue He that writeth in blood and proverbs doth not want to be read, but learnt by heart. – Nietzsche If there’s one book from the past 50 years I wish to memorize by heart, it’s The Bed of Procrustes by @nntaleb.https://twitter.com/MimeticValue/status/990974125291327488   Permalink 8:35 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The East Med Project is developing: My Hobby w/@PZallouahttps://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics   Permalink 7:22 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@nntaleb This summarizes my entire message. Reflects what every risk taker with skin in the game will tell you. The exact opposite of the logic of BS vendors such as intrusive nudgeboys @R_Thaler, @CassSunstein & other klueless academic rent seekers. cc:@ole_b_peters pic.twitter.com/eOi92xeaKH Permalink 6:26 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@drjohnm Doctors not yet signed on as employees, please read Book 4 (Wolves Amoung Dogs) in @nntaleb Skin in the Game. It’s damning. Helps explain burnout. Cc @RogueRad Permalink 5:52 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@thackerpd Weedkiller found in granola and crackers, internal FDA emails show by @careygillam https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/apr/30/fda-weedkiller-glyphosate-in-food-internal-emails   Someone needs to explain to Tamar Haspel and her editors at @WaPoFood that this is what real journalism looks like. You use documents and interview toxicology experts. Permalink 5:44 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@normonics “the internal documents obtained by the Guardian show the FDA has had trouble finding any food that does not carry traces of the pesticide [glyphosate]”https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/990930396886982656   Permalink 5:32 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The picture is horrible. But OK interview. https://www.esquire.com/lifestyle/money/a19181300/nassim-nicholas-taleb-money-advice/   via @Esquire Permalink 4:48 AM – 30 Apr 2018

@nksky Money has very little to do with you being rich. Important aspect in your life but not the only one. @nntaleb via @maharasiya pic.twitter.com/q93CGVAmjS Permalink 8:20 PM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Have enemies; but make sure that they think about you much, much more than you think about them. Permalink 4:10 PM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb It is also the North blindly copying the Mediterranean (olive oil, wine, civilization…)https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/990685510149472256   Permalink 1:33 PM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A draft of my lecture at Darwin College, Cambridge summarizing all my ideas on Fat Tails without mathematics. http://fooledbyrandomness.com/DarwinCollege.pdf   For comments. cc:@ole_b_peters ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/IZsSNpRyXd”>  pic.twitter.com/IZsSNpRyXd Permalink 11:18 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@WeAreLebanon The colors of sunset in #Beirut By @migeal101 #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com/jZkQvw7YCr Permalink 10:59 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Baddna n7ella: Kif bnéktob l-lebnéné (l-Ken3ané jdid)? El 8 amma gh? (ana bfaddél l gh lan khafféf l-nimràt) El š amma sh? (ana bfaddél l sh lan khafféf l-tén2it) Ba3d fi 2enna el “x” mush mista3mlé. Bin 7itta 3al 3, amma kh, amma 7? Badda jalsé!https://twitter.com/turlevnon/status/990234016942051328   Permalink 10:25 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The point, @jordanbpeterson isn’t Syria or nonSyria, it is a general rule: Avoid using twitter influence to spread material about something you know little or nothing about & can cause harm, such as Syria or systemic tail risks of genetic manipulations.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/990363784987344897   Permalink 7:15 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@Rainmaker1973 Graphical concept of the definition of sine and cosine http://bit.ly/2qgIoFc   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/H1T6xQ8XVl”>  pic.twitter.com/H1T6xQ8XVl Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb #SundayMorning Permalink 4:35 AM – 29 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 4) I do not derive my income from some philantropy or Paltreon where I have to act inspirational & suck up to a crowd of followers cutting me a charity check. I derive my income from financial & business activites in the real world. I don’t owe nothing to nobody. Permalink 7:04 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The imbecile doesn’t get that 1) My judgment of pple has NOTHING to do with whether they like my book 2) Social life, where relationships are nurtured, is for PRIVATE citizens, nothing to do with intellectual life bound to rigor/truth 3) Follow inspirational charlatans not mehttps://twitter.com/Huge_E87/status/990220012802592768   Permalink 6:31 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@ektrit Retweeting this to explain Taleb @nntaleb again, seeing the tweet against Jordan Peterson, but I’m sure only few will understand FREE THINKING.https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/893879793594380289   Permalink 5:59 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Time to upset the Arabists & linguists:https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c   Permalink 5:53 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The wisdom of Salomon: he had to rule between two women both claiming to be the mother of an infant. By offering to split the child in half, he figured out who was the mother: she was the one who cared the most. She had more #SkinintheGame cc: @asymmetricinfohttps://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/989980601653612544   Permalink 5:35 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I was told (but could not verify) that Syrian exports >30% higher than before the war. Factories are busy. If true, people are making things out of necessity. Overcompensation: the reverse of the Saudi disease. The press shows you pictures of war zones, not the rest.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/990018673845899264   Permalink 5:03 AM – 28 Apr 2018

@pravind_paul @nntaleb ‘s idea of neomania and how architects with no skin in the game design buildings they would never live in, and instead choose classical structures as their residence of choicehttps://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/989853160599535616   Permalink 1:30 AM – 28 Apr 2018

Russians, Old Arbat, Academics, Twitter, Sunstein, Friedman, The “LEFT”, Taxes, “irrationality”, Intolerance – Twitter

@nntaleb It is very dangerous for intelligent people to be paranoid. In The Black Swan, 11 years ago pic.twitter.com/De5Di711my Permalink 5:48 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The Russian pathological fixation is such that in the mind of those afflicted EVERYTHING has to have some Russian angle.https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/936035649278406658   Permalink 5:39 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Now when it comes to history, this is the real ting.https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/934752184109027328   Permalink 4:40 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As proof that the Arabic alphabet not adapted to Lebanese, in Garshuni ܐܶ vs in Arabic ايه which is NEVER the correct sound. The Latin Alphabet remains close to the Phoenician alphabet & much more adapted to our sounds. Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@jackrim1 Possibly one of the best book cover quotes ever @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/YaxDIW1sNA Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb GQ is the philosopher John Gray. Permalink 3:20 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanks friends, instead of having endorsements from hotshots we opted for “Joe from Chicago” style blurbs –real not fake readers. pic.twitter.com/XL5OjIK0sm Permalink 3:17 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The code. Argument that 13 has highest probability to follow. pic.twitter.com/M0nYfUmZzC Permalink 12:03 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The water in Moscow makes you more formal with probability. Solving a @CutTheKnotMath problem https://www.dropbox.com/s/yeursepeln1v8kw/GordianNov29Probability.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zf1AcNFU2W”>  pic.twitter.com/zf1AcNFU2W Permalink 12:00 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@Learn_lebanese The Lebanese É does not exist in Arabic. šÉyef fÉyet LebnÉn #LebaneseVsArabic Permalink 6:19 AM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #2: if you are tipsy, there is some elegance you need to maintain. Permalink 1:48 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #1: to get drunk with Russians, train to the following: no shame in being tipsy. It takes some training. Permalink 1:42 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@mdpopescu This. It drives me nuts (one might say it triggers me ) to see scientists take credit for engineers’ work. Scientists tell you that lasers cannot possibly work. Engineers make them work anyway. Scientists come back and claim another victory for science.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/935535056419946496   Permalink 10:10 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the discussion in Antifragile about “academic” discoveries that were in fact made by practitioners. pic.twitter.com/xiLZdPOkzi Permalink 7:45 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Errata: Meant 1 in 100,000. Also note that the net contribution of economics/finance is negative. Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb I need some help. I am in Old Arbat trying to buy trinkets and need a more reliable souvenir shop. Permalink 5:37 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Which explains why, in Georgian restaurants in Moscow, I am greeted like a local cousin until I open my mouth. pic.twitter.com/jqhDlVk12j Permalink 5:31 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The odds of an academic “researcher” producing anything eventually used by society is of the order of .00001%. That includes scientists. The odds for a baker: 100% Permalink 5:08 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People collectively chosen for their misunderstanding of tail risk, both before and after the crisis.https://twitter.com/BarbarianCap/status/935301358227517440   Permalink 2:57 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We face 3 predators: The State, Near-State Institutions (e.g. academia, media) & Large Corporations. Large corps end up destroying themselves (life expec. <10 y in SP500). Others stick and grow.https://twitter.com/RalphNader/status/935189825229152256   Permalink 2:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem with Lebanon is rent-seeking (and the inequality coming from it), not inequality per se. Permalink 2:04 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words Krugman falls for the mistake: “For academics there is no difference between academia and the real world. In the real world there is”. pic.twitter.com/BYujVSb0Nu Permalink 12:48 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Inded ideas don’t have skin in the game if the people holding them don’t.https://twitter.com/AustinEinhorn/status/935299974589382657   Permalink 12:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@maciejolpinski why a 17 year old altcoin trader might be more ‘rational’ than any Twitter crypto-theorist (including myself), opinion without option < option without opinion pic.twitter.com/QZ35RKH4QR Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sloppiness alert: rising “life expectancy” has no effect on social security. It is driven by childhood mortality. You care about conditional life expectancy >65 (or 68). This is very common mistake.https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warning-social-security-faces-a-23-cut-2017-11-27?link=sfmw_tw   Permalink 2:24 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that neither medicine nor engineering are academia-driven pursuits, rather practice and apprenticeship-based. Permalink 2:14 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum 2 Antikhrupkost Permalink 1:03 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Footnote: Lektchuring Birds How to Fly in Antifragile discusses the myth that science -> technology, rather than reverse. Permalink 12:48 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@The_Cyrenian But by all means, send hundreds of millions more to terrorists to keep killing Syrian Christians like me and burning our churches to the ground… pic.twitter.com/mR8b8GaJrh Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Academics, when they leave academia become at best back-office support staff, not decision-makers. Not like the grocery store owner who owns his own risk. Permalink 10:23 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: Москва Permalink 9:59 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb If majority of academics vote Democrat, it is not random: they 1) don’t have skin in the game, (others take risks for them) 2) are not productive members of society but want to lecture others on what to do 3) have steady income etc.https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/934863186494459904   Permalink 9:52 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mockba Many many Russians interested in Antikhtupkim and disorder… Was told there is no Russian recipe for squid ink. pic.twitter.com/gfIIYLjvO4 Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The NYT generalizing: because its friends have problems, ALL men are a problem. Shoddy. Same defensive generalization when I accuse someone w/o skin in the game of being a BS vendor/pseudoexpert: Taleb calls “everybody” a BS vendor/pseudoexpert. Permalink 1:02 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words, such a reasoning would lead to preemptively arrest all vegetarians w/mustache. Permalink 12:19 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The logical fallacy of affirming the consequent. If ALL wars are preceded by tensions, NOT ALL tensions lead to war (empirically, most tensions lead to agreements/parties). If ALL members of the Smith family all tall, NOT ALL tall pple from Smith family.https://twitter.com/TheViewFromLL2/status/934596850895777792   Permalink 12:08 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@TMFStoffel When I read things like this — supporting @nntaleb’s theory of the body’s antifragility and the eventual harm of interventionism — it makes me wonder about ever icing a pulled muscle, taking ibuprofen, etc again https://www.thedailybeast.com/let-it-burn-why-you-should-let-fevers-run-their-course   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ua8SKljKvm”>  pic.twitter.com/ua8SKljKvm Permalink 8:55 PM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb A speculation in Antifragile.https://twitter.com/yzilber/status/934841513787326464   Permalink 10:00 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@romepix A moment in #Naples #Italy pic.twitter.com/9ynFP1a5zn Permalink 5:40 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Finally getting rid of IYIs and Empty Suits.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/934446997288964097   Permalink 4:21 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Twitter getting a taste of its medicine.https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/934504253661630465   Permalink 12:38 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ergodic measures of inequality give a v. different story. Cc: @ole_b_peters Permalink 12:34 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is class-envy driven BS both statistically & philosophically. Unfortunately it is infecting Lebanon.https://twitter.com/karimbitar/status/934660336761888769   Permalink 12:32 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Presence in South England: You can see how an Anatolian/Syrian gene went NorthWest with Roman soldiers (the “diversity” of that ignorant Mary Beard). Permalink 2:12 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 20 years ago…https://twitter.com/murkycwaters/status/934512451617542144   Permalink 1:05 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Attention conspiracists: I am on my way to Moscow. Just letting you know, speculate & theorize. (Last trip was cut short for personal reasons.) Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning.https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/934159382874640386   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning. https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/934159382874640386   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The point is not so much plagiarism as the fact that readers get offended seeing ethical breaches. Permalink 6:56 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Plagiarism alert: by one Luca de Sandro in @StartingFinance. Luckily, readers shout fraud when they see fraud. pic.twitter.com/6s9AG4Kj2y Permalink 6:40 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Statists who want to impose topdown solutions on pple agst their will have the NERVE to talk abt “authoritarianism”. “Nudger” @CassSunstein, clueless abt risk/probability, tried to manipulate citizens under Obama, (s.a. prevent them from knowing they were consuming GMOs). pic.twitter.com/KDKGnu0Xr7 Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The bankruptcy of the NYT? of Monsanto? The collapse of Saudi Barbaria? pic.twitter.com/UYU4uuWV7j Permalink 5:01 PM – 24 Nov 2017

@GabrielSaidR I agree but religion did matter here – it was a Sufi mosque. https://twitter.com/quixoticnada/status/934108668919992320   Permalink 11:50 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@anhistorian In honor of Thomas Friedman’s latest love letter to Saudi here is 70 years of the NY Times describing #Saudi royals in the language of #reform. Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arabic root same as other Semitic ones. pic.twitter.com/juriVuOw6c Permalink 7:20 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the reasoning defect by which Arabist idiots and Western IYIs deem that if word in Levantine has similar Arabic root, it comes FROM Arabic. On Wikipedia Levantine is called “Levantine Arabic” when Arabic came LATER. Permalink 7:14 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: I meant גבר in Heb not גָדוֹל. GVR root. Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algebra is NOT necessarily from Arabic. That’s the problem w/ignorant historians of science. 2 roots: AKKADIAN (Babylon): gabaru =>compute(equivalence betw. solar & lunar._ CANNANITE & ARAMAIC: GBR is to “make bigger” (גָדוֹל in Heb = powerful), gabra= man/strong in Aram.https://twitter.com/Acts17/status/933787306766585858   Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The J2b1 concentration, while hard to reverse-engineer w/the (elementary) probability used by geneticists, is relatively easy to do via Brownian Bridge. pic.twitter.com/3dBUtWofvo Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb New book uses Thomas Friedman @tomfriedman as representative of the criminally stupid no-skin in the game BS vendor/pearshape warmonger who destroys societies. pic.twitter.com/oxXI6a9xfK Permalink 5:08 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Final, with thanks. pic.twitter.com/6LPagRXYUw Permalink 3:47 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My attempt at solution. pic.twitter.com/YqNFE3kdEh Permalink 2:37 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Dear @ehsani22, relax, NYT’s @tomfriedman is the perfect negative indicator; NEVER been right on anything: Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Leb, Trump, globalization, complexity. Means MBS and Saudi Barbaria are doomed.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/933855871653867520   Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@mns Crucial point. Overuse of words we have to describe atrocities not only diminishes victims of those past atrocities, but it blunts the main weapon (language) we have to prevent future atrocitieshttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/933305380544962561   Permalink 3:36 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) Monoculturist. Permalink 9:58 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that I put “LEFT” in quotes. A lot of people on the left w/discernment abilities or civil libertarians, pacifists, nonstatists, localists, communitarians, etc. do not identify w/such a category. Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanksgiving Quiz, continuation of @CutTheKnotMath’s random interval problem. https://twitter.com/CutTheKnotMath/status/933024468527611904   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ShgW12b8XQ”>  pic.twitter.com/ShgW12b8XQ Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The “LEFT”: Repressive. Anti-localist, anti-decentralization. Anti freedom of speech. Warmongering, militarist. Interventionist. Manipulation of pple w/nudges. Elitist/IYI. Anti self-determination of minorities worldwide. Race obsessed. Pro-Salafascists. Anti #SkinintheGame Permalink 6:08 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Decisions are not about epistemic beliefs, but operational ones. Religion is often very rational…https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a   Permalink 12:16 PM – 22 Nov 2017

@AStratelates Nope. As @nntaleb points out, EVEN IF THE SUPERNATURAL DOESN’T EXIST and prayer doesn’t work, it fulfills our intervention tendency without harm. You’re just a bigoted asshole if you’re denigrating people praying.https://twitter.com/ArtturiArtturi/status/933254493373788160   Permalink 9:58 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@DonTravlos As the son of one of the victims of hitler glad someone with the authority of a Taleb finally said it Permalink 9:47 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@garyruskin “The best virtue requires courage,” writes @nntaleb http://bit.ly/2zr7yq7   “If I were to describe the perfect virtuous acts, it would be to take currently frowned upon positions, those penalized by the common discourse (particularly when funded by lobbyists).” ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yW0viTtm4a”>  pic.twitter.com/yW0viTtm4a Permalink 6:42 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Blabbering Pseudolib Idiots Took Over Academia: The idea of comparing someone to Hitler: 1) who doesn’t actively conduct genocide, 2) invade neighbors, 3) muzzles speech , 4) etc. is an insult to the true victims of Hitler.https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/933068639867084800   Permalink 4:05 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@CaesarIpse An inmersive week in philosophy, finance, markets and risk taking from bright practitioners who know their “ting” and awesome peers!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/932985129202520064   Permalink 12:20 PM – 21 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A problem of random intervals https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RandomIntervals.shtml   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Nq0X7BVNbp”>  pic.twitter.com/Nq0X7BVNbp Permalink 9:29 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 12) The Scandinavians (and the Swiss) get it that taxation requires a level of TRUST found in municipalities, possibly regions, never large anonymous states. (Scalability & Skin in the Game)https://twitter.com/liberbabian/status/933006238434058240   Permalink 8:57 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We managed with RWRI a technical education that has no BS no pol correctness &no admin fat. https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10155395509003375   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/4U4LdCwlmn”>  pic.twitter.com/4U4LdCwlmn Permalink 6:52 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 11) As tribes grow, I can understand paying protection money to warriors: Pax Romana/Ottomana/Habsburgianana even Americana to preserve PROPERTY RIGHTS. Historical rate ~2-10%. It is much harder to understand coercive redistribution & subsidies to rent seeking bureaucrats. Permalink 6:28 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 10) SCALING. A- Imagine you’re a hunter. You give a share (say ⅓) to a pool for invalid members of tribe; for social norms & #SITG symmetry. B- Community grows, someone FORCES you to give ⅓ to an administration managed far away, some of it pays salary of P. Krugman. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb You mean this Falkenstein? http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   Permalink 4:41 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mr @_tomazy 1) #Jews went down in Bagdad & Cairo by 100% and 99.99% (not an approximation). If that’s not evidence, I don’t what is. 2) The explicit mission by Qatar/KSA is a Sunni replacement to Alawis. Thank you. Permalink 1:13 PM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 9) CLASS ENVY isn’t from truck driver in South Texas, but from a NY/DC Ivy League educated IYI (Krugman, Stiglitz) w/sense of entitlement upset some “less smart” pple are much richer.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 11:49 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb That’s the problem with Big Government, not one with taxation. Gabish? Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 8) When you disguize CLASS ENVY as an intellectual argument (as Piketty, Krugman, IYIs), it always, always shows. Permalink 7:58 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 7) So we accept tht taxes are collective coersion; we can make it rational by allowing groups to form their own communities w/their own collective rules, as in CHF. This is why the ONLY political orientation I have is LOCALISM. Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 6) I only reply to comments that are wrong, not those that are sufficiently stupid to be “not even wrong”. Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 5) In that sense taxation can be seen as a Punishment ( جزية) on the wealthy for them to be allowed to stay wealthy. Which is OK, but don’t be fooled. Permalink 6:36 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 4) Islamic law gives insights: taxes are separated as 1) Charity ( زكاة, alms) vs. 2) Punishment ( جزية) (on Dhimmis (like me) to be allowed to stay Christian+ خراج). Charity (~2-3%) goes to the poor, Punishment to state coffers/military. Charity implies *thanking* benefactor. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Accept disproportionate taxation, but be no fool: it is the coercive result of 1man-1vote just as in past it was military force. in LCD, it is patronage. In past, taxation was disguized as “Protection” & small, w/~5-15%. Then became “services”. Now “fairness”. Permalink 6:09 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The reason we have “progressive” taxation is the 1 person-1 vote, with the spin that zero-sum, which applies only to IYI jobs.https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 5:24 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fake narrative to justify expropriation: 1% of taxpayers pay ~ half of taxes for SAME services. You want them to pay 110%? 200%?https://twitter.com/B_Ehrenreich/status/931934347699073027   Permalink 4:57 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@bthies_watashi Legibility, explained. https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/07/26/a-big-little-idea-called-legibility/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/C38sFtQIPe”>  pic.twitter.com/C38sFtQIPe Permalink 4:23 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arab League = Sunni League. States that will be outside of it will prosper. Like Malta. Permalink 3:28 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 1st step, Arab states delegitimized their Jews (1940s) 2nd, they deligitimized Copts (1950s) 3rd, they deligitimized Maronites (1970s) 4th, they deligitimized Alawis (2011) Final step, they deligitimized Shiites (2017) Which means good luck to the Sunni League. .https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/932384538239660034   Permalink 3:19 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Exactly my argument “surgeons should not look like surgeons”!!!https://twitter.com/DamnPatriot/status/932351341531451392   Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Problem 4186 from the Crux Mathematicorum Mathematicorum https://www.cut-the-knot.org/m/Calculus/Crux4186.shtml   #FigureThat #math #calculus #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/u76CAdUgyH”>  pic.twitter.com/u76CAdUgyH Permalink 9:15 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Another chapter shows that individual “irrationality” is necessary for collective behavior. Also almost all of Thaler’s work misuses probability distributions.https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3   Permalink 8:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nudging is a mechanism that lead you to act according to Thaler and Sunstein both very ignorant of probability, & increases risk in society.https://twitter.com/timurkuran/status/932285532847124480   Permalink 8:39 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Added this to the final draft: the problem with universalists. pic.twitter.com/tdRAnB829K Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Many pseudolibs & other idiots who replied to the Persian Muslim wife point don’t get it that the ONLY evidence of nonracism is one’s private life.https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Permalink 6:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@BadgerPundit For 99% of us, better to block, not mute. Here’s the classic argument for that: https://www.gadgette.com/2016/05/20/why-its-better-to-mute-your-twitter-trolls-than-block-them  . But Taleb’s in a different situation, as many read his thread, and he needs to block people who ruin them for everyone. A tragedy-of-the-commons problem. Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb NITPICKING: Commenting/debating a point of no relevance to the substance of the argument; whether right or wrong, no effect, while distracting pple. Gabish? Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is a prime example of nitpicking coupled with distortion of my initial statement.https://twitter.com/LouaiWafa/status/932231680240136193   Permalink 5:42 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Should I block this responder?https://twitter.com/PwoodsNY/status/932239710788911104   Permalink 5:33 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sunday Heuristic: Block nitpickers before trolls as they damage the discourse much more effectively by diverting it (pple engage nitpickers more than trolls). Permalink 4:53 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb They don’t mention that Wahabis in Saudi Barbaria currently ban dogs as impure animals.http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/11/these-may-be-world-s-first-images-dogs-and-they-re-wearing-leashes   Permalink 4:28 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Why is it that pple, in 2017, still don’t get the properties of Fat Tails? Is it a reasoning defect or because it is so hard? @DrCirillohttps://twitter.com/ramez/status/916803279362834437   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) And ha! Zaraqu means both BLUE and GREEN! pic.twitter.com/cxTuXtdgUa Permalink 4:44 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) In Aramaic, both Green and Yellow <= ירוק pic.twitter.com/QdPw809iFU Permalink 4:34 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tarjamt Taḱt Prokrustes xal kinxané-jdid (Modern Canaanite). pic.twitter.com/2wl4yhstXF Permalink 12:37 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tit for tat game theoretic Popper’s Paradox: the minute you cease to tolerate, I become intolerant.https://twitter.com/normonics/status/931914784035008513   Permalink 8:37 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Saturday. Recall frm Antifragile that Greeks (and Heb) had no word for color blue. Closest old semitic word for Green is…Erz (->Cedar) or 7ashab (->wood) or ירוק ورق ->paper Permalink 7:31 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@shrykescythe Mike was never even the biggest voice or totally convinced on Pizzagate, yet media decided to do everything to stick the label on him. Brainwashed sheep just parrot “Pizzagate guy” without ever studying the facts. Permalink 6:57 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb When I have drinks w/someone on the left (I do weekly), nobody on the right bothers me. When I have drinks w/someone on the right, the “left” goes wild. (f*** them). #PopperParadox: never, never tolerate intolerance. Permalink 5:45 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In Brazil, I thought kidnappers settled for 10-20% of the NW of the victim. Saudi Arabia: 70%. Corruption Schmoruption: none shd ever invest in Aramco, stock in a country that expropriates to balance budget. #ضد_آل_سعود Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@mikeandallie Finding e by throwing darts: https://mikesmathpage.wordpress.com/2017/11/18/finding-e-by-throwing-darts/   #math #mathchat inspired by @nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath @giohio and @JohnAllenPaulos Permalink 5:17 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Green Brexit push set to continue despite amendments defeat > Yes: we fight on to save the @PrecPrinciple! [Pse RT!]https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/3021199/green-brexit-push-continues-despite-amendments-defeat   Permalink 4:42 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb How do I know that @Cernovich is not racist? #SkinintheGame: He has a Persian Muslim wife (& a half Persian daughter). Ignore talk (by pple & abt pple), observe what people do. Permalink 3:40 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@hichambh Looks like chef Sébastien Bras has read the work of @nntaleb Acclaimed French chef asks to be stripped of three Michelin starshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/20/sebastien-bras-french-chef-three-michelin-stars-le-suquet-laguiole?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lecture on Cybercrime at RWRI 6: Our policy now is to hire instructors from 1) past attendees 2) people who practice exactly what they talk about. No academic should teach anything nonacademic. pic.twitter.com/A81t3glD7E Permalink 6:40 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Mike C @Cernovich pic.twitter.com/ye98U8cCxf Permalink 5:49 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Voila https://www.dropbox.com/s/5n9qosuiqso97cz/GordianNov17.tex?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Ij0TsjQTaI”>  pic.twitter.com/Ij0TsjQTaI Permalink 5:16 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Just a reminder that, as a philosopher @mpigliucci has a problem with Truth.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/comment-on-klueless-massimo-s-comments-massimo-pigliucci-of-the-mary-beard-twitter-debate-4c99a36de40   Permalink 4:19 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@mackthefresh Last day of Real World Risk with @nntaleb. It’s been great! Still waiting for the deadlift demonstration though. pic.twitter.com/a3hVo2Y17K Permalink 8:23 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An inequality in 2+2 variables from SSMA magazine https://www.cut-the-knot.org/arithmetic/algebra/SSMA5454.shtml   #FigureThat #math#algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/qwC7TpSWnG”>  pic.twitter.com/qwC7TpSWnG Permalink 8:03 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thought of the day: never trust the thought & science of anyone who is not free. Being free means no honors, no position, nothing other than one’s own thought. pic.twitter.com/nUZo5gbB3V Permalink 5:30 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Some people get that universalism & globalism lead to monoculture.https://twitter.com/startupdaemon/status/931241391468023808   Permalink 11:24 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My answer is here: SITG vs CONFLICT OF INTEREST pic.twitter.com/F0NeZ4VnUG Permalink 7:46 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@ProbFact Chaos and the beta distribution https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2017/09/27/quadratic-iteration-distribution/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/aNeM4LBDcZ”>  pic.twitter.com/aNeM4LBDcZ Permalink 7:12 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@MaxAbrahms Since the start of the Cold War the strategy of U.S. Mideast proxies has been to sell themselves as strategic assets by constantly adjusting their professed utility depending on the latest geopolitical threat.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/931164578431475712   Permalink 6:22 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead The House of Commons has just voted against retaining the @PrecPrinciple into UK law. Good bye protection; hello recklessness and potential devastation of our posterity. A shameful failure of leadership. [Please RT.]https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/930926163735863296   Permalink 11:57 PM – 15 Nov 2017