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Monthly Archives: March 2015

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Public Lecture: “Markers of Country Fragility” with Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Eventbrite

Still 78 tickets left as of hitting the publish button! Public Lecture: “Markers of Country Fragility” with Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Fares Center of Eastern Mediterranean StudiesThursday, March 26, 2015 from 4:00 PM to 5:30 PM (EDT)Medford, MA Ticket Information General Admission 78 Tickets 1d 23h 57m Free via Public Lecture: “Markers of Country […]

If you want strangers to help you, smile…

If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry. via If you want strangers to help you, smile. For… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

My arguments against Value at Risk…

My arguments against Value at Risk (or measurement of tail risks) 18 years ago and the very first article I ever wrote. My arguments have not changed, those of the opponents kept changing. The method is what blew up the banks and FNMA in 2008… I am posting because it generalizes to all sucker risk […]

Fallacy of mechanistic statistics in risk debates…

Fallacy of mechanistic statistics in risk debates: If we wanted planes to be safe “with statistical significance” that is 99% confidence level we’d have between 400 and 2500 crashes a day.The point is that risk management uses a much much higher degree of rigor than statistics, something GMO-idiots are not getting. via Fallacy of mechanistic […]