Tag Archives: Dawkins

#RWRI13, Connectivity, endcoronavirus.org, Contact Between People, virucide, Quillettists, #RiadPonzi, John Gray, Conferences, Sunstein, Superspreader, TRUE JUSTICE, Harari, Dawkins, Hanson, Thaler, George Steiner, Bureaucracy, Localism

@Pascallisch Same is true for animals/evolved cognitive systems. Most false positives for predator detection in foliage are without consequence. A single false negative can be fatal. Raw accuracy is not the point. Permalink 9:11 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb If the word “panic” means “exaggerated” reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem. We have survived for zillion years thanks to “irrational” “panics”. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235663235573067777?s=20   Permalink 8:30 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Saying the coronavirus panic is dumb is dumb. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #WittgensteinsRuler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528   Permalink 7:56 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb “If you see fraud, & you don’t say fraud, you are a fraud”. I provided a list of #RiadPonzi & the banker’s partisans. They also engaged in smearing those who were opposed to paying. https://twitter.com/Nasser_Saidi/status/1236253217010450432   Permalink 4:32 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 1) Predictions don’t count. It’s their payoff, what you do w/them (x is not f(x) ). Academics don’t get it. “Speculators are not paid in true or false, but in $) 2) Indeed, I don’t run the account. But I save the tweets as I am too lazy to have a notebook. Thanks, Cetin. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1236080589897375749   Permalink 4:19 AM – 7 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Impressive: he was self-taught in Semitic languages. Like our @HsenAndil “Only autodidacts are free” (#Antifragile) pic.twitter.com/21brbso7PR Permalink 3:42 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@HomegrownJoan @nntaleb Nurses need help! https://mobile.twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651   https://twitter.com/NNUBonnie/status/1236019979125915651   Permalink 3:05 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb We hit 400 volunteers! https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719   Permalink 2:53 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb New job https://twitter.com/Imparziale4/status/1236061954772475904   Permalink 2:52 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@paulportesi @nntaleb Wittgenstein ruler https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236029449042198528   Permalink 2:10 PM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Possibly the most erudite man in history. He taught himself Semitic Languages & translated Arabic proverbs into Latin. He knew Arabic, Greek, Latin, Hebrew, Syriac/Aramaic. He was to Montaigne (then considered a popularizing philistine) what Umberto Eco was to Fox News. https://twitter.com/sentantiq/status/1235995793280163840   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU”>  pic.twitter.com/WnvFGd2LXU Permalink 11:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft… Permalink 8:53 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@dancarna Localism in Seattle: the CDC was taking too long with multiple fumbles getting testing kits to us so we made our own. Now we’re able to test 1000 people per day https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/with-seattle-on-the-front-lines-of-covid-19-epidemic-university-of-washington-lab-given-emergency-approval-to-test-for-coronavirus/   Permalink 7:49 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@normonics As this thing evolves, remember: we did not hedge. We told you what we saw and what was coming if we failed to take action. Most are too busy hedging to get their head out of the sand. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 6:39 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@ole_b_peters New blog post. Probability weighting is one of those supposed cognitive biases that evaporate, as far as I can tell, when we think carefully about how to live within time. https://ergodicityeconomics.com/2020/03/06/probability-weighting-and-ergodicity-economics/   Permalink 6:26 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Actually we can show this identity is false: Negative log = log[abs[]]+ i \pi is not really a function, when we solve as 1 rather than 2 integrals we get a residual of \frac{\pi^3}{3}. Otherwise the left integral is something like -5/4 i zeta(3) “offset” by the second integral. Permalink 6:22 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb LOCALISM ! Mervyn King understand that city-states shd deal directly with one another, not via some bureaucrat in Brussels/DC Athens had a deal w/Sidon: full rights in both places (at least in Athens, where resident Sidonese were not metics but citizens) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-06/mervyn-king-city-of-london-should-align-with-new-york-not-eu?srnd=premium   Permalink 5:48 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb OK, Friends, Now that you understand multiplicative and systemic effects, you can get why we worry about GMOs –but not small idiosyncratic risks. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO”>  pic.twitter.com/tuaCvEo9MO Permalink 3:54 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@MKM_Abdul Precisely what @nntaleb wrote in Antifragile. https://twitter.com/annchildersmd/status/1235632957995372544   Permalink 2:16 AM – 6 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Thanks for the help. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1235644497528307719   Permalink 3:18 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Another blue check mark who doesn’t understand 1) multiplicative processes, 2) risk, 3) other stuff. Yet spreading danger. Another one. https://twitter.com/PeterDiamandis/status/1235682503605669888   Permalink 1:58 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Why it is SELFISH to not worry more about the virus than other sources of risk even if it does not affect you as much. Individual precaution does not scale to collective precaution. [Adding to PRINCIPIA POLITICA] pic.twitter.com/F7jRKAQ4dz Permalink 12:27 PM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Maestro Statistician Andrew Gelman going (as usual) after nudgeboy @CassSunstein [If you want to be scared, imagine him or concoctista “Rationality Richard” @Richard_Thaler doing some nudging from the White House if Biden is elected.] https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/03/03/coronavirus-panic-news/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm”>  pic.twitter.com/yE3dwbGdNm Permalink 10:50 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Tail hedge: he explains the logic of how to make a portfolio ergodic by cutting the left tail. https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1235316588640759808   Permalink 9:27 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb News is misleading. They froze the assets of bank OWNERS & managers. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Grrrrrrrreat news! The Cascade has started. Next in line: #RiadPonzi (Fakkét l masb7a!) https://reut.rs/2Tq9FTC   Permalink 6:40 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/dMOcjFwhmJ Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Those who mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence (like these morons) end up leaving the gene pool, except that here they endanger others. https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1235247099756892162   Permalink 10:39 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@nntaleb 4) Ricardo got the point but missed on its analytical consequences. pic.twitter.com/CLPZG4aOQS Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Mar 2020

@yaneerbaryam Its time to take action to stop COVID-19. Join our volunteers working at local and regional levels to help contain the virus. Email necsivolunteers@gmail.com with your state and county information to join the team @nntaleb Permalink 8:05 PM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And… when you finish one volume, start a new one. Technical Incerto Volume 2 pic.twitter.com/4tTlvPpwJ0 Permalink 9:11 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Add this smearer @Berti74 pic.twitter.com/KABktMe6hg Permalink 7:22 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Neo-nazis, like Quillettists, are statistically incompetent, parroting buzzwords like “PCA” Even if correct (it’s not),PCAs, 1)reflect recent endogamy, 2)distances need to be corrected. Entropy: If pple LOOK the same, they ARE the same. See my paper: https://www.academia.edu/41442347/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn”>  pic.twitter.com/2y3vZLjsRn Permalink 6:28 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb ANNOUNCEMENT #Lebanon Why is the most dangerous & incompetent central banker in history, #RiadPonzi, still in power? He owns a few journalists who smear those who mention him. Suspects: مرسيل غانم جورج غانم فيوليت بلعة فيليب ابي عقل موفق حرب ربيع الهبر بسام ابو زيد ميشال قنبور Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This music must be coming from deep Anatolia/East Med, before these languages came to the region. https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285?s=21   https://twitter.com/scmarco69/status/1234760835194593285   Permalink 4:21 AM – 3 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Yaneer explains the payoff from “panic”. If you reduce the connectivity between people the rate drops & we are nonlineaely out of the woods. Hint: the flu season typically starts & ends with the school year. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1234638804725751814   Permalink 5:00 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Ladino version of Jews from Turkey https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=234&v=uSOrl7l9lOg&feature=emb_logo   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU”>  pic.twitter.com/efMUnRAFYU Permalink 1:06 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Few Turks are aware of the fact that they are almost entirely converted Greeks/Armenians/Georgians/Levantines. “Languages travel, genes stay” https://twitter.com/C_Westling/status/1234581871142588421?s=20   Permalink 12:52 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The Greek version: Ο ΓΙΑΤΡΟΣ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8_fyNHO7q0   Permalink 12:44 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb And the Levantine versions of “Aman Doktor” سكابا يا دموع العين https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoQ53H3wyKU   https://twitter.com/AlfredHarb/status/1234564732423680000?s=20   Permalink 12:09 PM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb EAST MED In spite of what Nordic supremacists have led people to believe, Greeks, Turks, Western Armenians, Anatolian Kurds, & Northern Syrians are the same people. They have the same soul. https://twitter.com/DIAS/status/1234256857360949249   Permalink 8:23 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@imleslahdin The way @nntaleb writes is the best model in the world. Not just the content, the whole open process. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234439613642682373   Permalink 3:36 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Came home to find hard copies of the new book. Beautiful. This is print on demand, which costs $20 per copy to print (highest quality paper). The volume version should costs $5-7 to print & will be available in 2 months. Meanwhile PDF is free: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ”>  pic.twitter.com/Cc9Ll5G9FZ Permalink 3:25 AM – 2 Mar 2020

@nntaleb John Gray is the real deal. https://twitter.com/davidsarac/status/1234138190048423937   Permalink 5:58 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@DIAS In Istanbul, some friends were singing an old Turkish song “Aman Doktor” in a restaurant. A Greek man walks up to the table and starts singing the same song in Greek (Greeks and Turks share many old folk songs) At the end The 2 men showed great respect to eachother wow pic.twitter.com/w2cWaliQyf Permalink 3:19 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb AVOID PSEUDO-EMPIRICISM Just realized that the point about @CassSunstein style of pseudo-empiricism (common to journos/psychologists of risk and “rationality”) is explicit in Skin In the Game, nontechnical! pic.twitter.com/eiUIldB24M Permalink 1:50 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb BLOCKING & FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION A twitter feed is NOT an open public forum. It is private. It is like your daily newspaper or your personal classroom. You are free to let in only qualified students. Otherwise noise will overtake your life. Permalink 12:01 PM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb The wisest thing is to preemptively block every journalist — particularly UK and “science” ones. https://twitter.com/CalJamieson/status/1234202323834068993   Permalink 11:55 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Conferences are bad not because of how many people one connects with there, but because they move germs across the planet, de-localize the problem. https://twitter.com/TurgesonFerd/status/1234198348615147521?s=20   Permalink 11:34 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb One heuristic. Whenever you hear “evidence based”, expect probabilistic fraud. https://twitter.com/AlfonsoSpencer9/status/1234042331030007808   Permalink 10:57 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb Blocked the fellow (among others who dangerously advocate “no worry”). Higher fatality rate can actually lower the risk of the disease, make tails thinner. Why? Simply because dead people tend to not take planes, trains subways, & cruises. Even in California. pic.twitter.com/z32uuRvbzg Permalink 10:18 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@perfexcellent When I see this, the more I wish people would follow @nntaleb’s advice that these bodies should be created with a non-negotiable expiry date. Permalink 8:14 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@KaMiller1 Bottom of page 2 above the comic: @nntaleb provides greatest footnote in the history of footnotes. You made my morning, Sir! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1234093143089434624   Permalink 5:47 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@TulsiGabbard .@realDonaldTrump Remember this? https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/375759718251503616   Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/HfkamAmsAl Permalink 4:32 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb For those still unable to understand that death from multiplicative processes such as corona are NOT to be compared to those from thin-tailed sources, see Chapter 3 of new book: https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ”>  pic.twitter.com/iM79LwHxHZ Permalink 4:28 AM – 1 Mar 2020

@nntaleb This is not the base rate fucking fallacy. Please stop using names given by ignorant psychologists to statistical phenomena. Permalink 6:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb There is a marked-to-market problem. Low incidence = low testing. Only places that mark to market properly seem to be Singapore and Bella Italia. pic.twitter.com/seSrdFy3X8 Permalink 5:31 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The initial discussion was how intelligent people (in the real sense, that is, people who get stuff) don’t correlate much with those with high IQ scores (IQ scores select for idiots who are good test takers/prone to becoming bureaucrats and slaves of states & large corps). Permalink 4:43 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR Why, among public figures, good looking people (actors) are not so intelligent, and intelligent people are not so good looking? (Posed by @joe_shipman) pic.twitter.com/idK1xOfeH2 Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam We are looking for volunteers for the coronavirus outbreak response. Please DM me if you are willing to help. In order for this to be stopped we need to work together to make it happen. Permalink 3:25 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The entire idea of the INCERTO is that uncertainty makes some decisions muuuuuuch easier. If I am “uncertain” about the skills of the pilot, I take another plane. If I am “uncertain” about an investment, I say no, etc. But Nudgeboy @CassSunstein suggests opposite. pic.twitter.com/I3jCFqSV6o Permalink 2:17 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The logical problem with IYIS: we don’t know the risk HENCE let’s ignore it. https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1233757564921356290?s=20   Permalink 1:52 PM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Most places with “low incidence” are turning out to be places of *low testing*. Includes, of course, the United States. https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/1233784596241747968   Permalink 9:58 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The rate of infection drops when fewer people are in enclosed spaces. Singapore has too much AC in the summer. https://twitter.com/Kaschat1/status/1233771178357075968   Permalink 7:11 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@ggreenwald This Boston Globe column says Sanders’ attempt to win the Massachusetts primary is “very disrespectful” to Sen. Warren, a form of “major humiliation,” one that reveals an ugly character flaw of “unbridled ambition” that is “exceedingly off-putting” https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-goes-campaign-kill/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr”>  pic.twitter.com/zhetcArYUr Permalink 6:47 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@kemaunders Thank you to the brilliant team (@nntaleb, Raphael Douady, @financequant, Alicia Bentham Williams, @normonics, @trishankkarthik, Arié H, and Tom Messina) and my fellow participants who made #RWRI 13 an experience that will touch many parts of life. My immediate to do list… Permalink 2:29 AM – 29 Feb 2020

@seandaken THANK YOU Alicia Bentham-Williams @nntaleb Raphael Douady @financequant @normonics @trishankkarthik @ariehaziza @vergilden and my fellow participants for an incredible week. Found my people. See you at a future #RWRI #RWRI13 #incerto #oneplusminusalpha #cutthetail Permalink 5:06 PM – 28 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Please use # #RWRI not just #RWRI13 https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232668480153014272   Permalink 9:20 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 How simple rules build complex structures with Mathematica code by ⁦@financequant ⁩ Genome cannot explain the conplexity of life pic.twitter.com/QIMxe8e3aX Permalink 8:33 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Life isn’t about getting forecasts “right”; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 7:10 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The hidden mean: you know that real cases are (at best) equal or higher than reported. Reported = lower bound, not estimate. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1232676620667891715   Permalink 6:44 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/leominkus/status/1232419862879842306   Permalink 4:40 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@harshacoach People think of government as an abstract theological entity, not as a collection of individuals without skin in the game @nntaleb at #RWRI Permalink 4:38 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@DellAnnaLuca Tra l’altro, in questo thread qui sotto, la traduzione in italiano di alcuni documenti degli autori sopracitati: https://t.co/NGd4ef8Yc7   https://twitter.com/dellannaluca/status/1231140691020894208?s=21   Permalink 4:23 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@flaneurizer @nntaleb does not say directly, but China has same relationship with Hong Kong, milking it for the last 20 years. IYIs shout about China wanting to “crush” Hong Kong, but that’s BS. Just a mafioso maybe overplaying their hand. https://twitter.com/NachoOliveras/status/1232325743536984064   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Atheists are just modern versions of religious fundamentalists: they both take religion too literally.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI https://twitter.com/nachooliveras/status/1232383749616230401   Permalink 4:29 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@RealJamesWoods Thank you, Doug. This is a brilliant assessment of our current situation with the #Wuhan #CoronaVirus. More importantly, as I understand it, taking strong, unpopular steps to implement strategic intervention before the pandemic is catastrophic in America is absolutely critical. https://twitter.com/ComplexSE/status/1232402538189787137   Permalink 12:58 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@bakingVC Forecasters don’t get rich by being right „on average“. Basically, that’s why there are no rich forecasters. #RWRI @nntaleb Permalink 12:38 PM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The exact discussion at #RWRI about people who don’t get that risk taking is good, under some conditions; and how to defeat sophistry like the one bt this ignorant fellow @realYuriOrlov that “no systemic multiplicative tail exposures” is not “take no risks” at all. https://twitter.com/realYuriOrlov/status/1232375927511769088   Permalink 10:59 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@normonics .@nntaleb currently discussing how social media is a return to a more natural communication pattern, a return from central media gatekeepers #RWRI #RWRI13 #lindy https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1188444355922661376   Permalink 8:53 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@JacobGnther1 “I live in a cave. There are no corners in my house…” #RWRI @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/8vE0Ler9gB Permalink 6:27 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@NachoOliveras Day 2 of #rwri13 just taking off! 1/n pic.twitter.com/bfWtYdYAgx Permalink 6:02 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@ErikByronTaylor Learned yesterday why guy in the slide is NOT irrational. (Took liberty of updating slide to read Corona instead of Ebola to make it more timely #photoshop) #RWRI #rwri13 pic.twitter.com/LT8TeKIc89 Permalink 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It is practically impossible to be more dangerously incompetent than this fellow. Impossible. https://twitter.com/jassemajaka/status/1232039206098259968   Permalink 4:03 AM – 25 Feb 2020

@seandaken Having a blast at #RWRI in NYC with @nntaleb and ~65 others pic.twitter.com/py5sUuIRyi Permalink 7:41 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/docroger/status/1231951997298970624   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #RWRI 13 https://twitter.com/DocRoger/status/1231951997298970624   Permalink 6:54 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @POTUS @realDonaldTrump @ErikSchatzker #Negotiations #TheArtoftheDeal #hitfirst pic.twitter.com/FOK8ZLvwwj Permalink 6:07 AM – 24 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I mean infections. Permalink 6:46 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The carpenter fallacy. To understand large gains/losses in a Casino roulette, you don’t ask a carpenter, but a probabilist. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1231768196371435520?s=20   Permalink 6:39 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Doctors and the #WHO don’t understand multiplication. They understand medicine (& addition), not multiplication. When we posted this on Jan 26, there were ~1,000 casualties. Today ~79,000. Unless we overreact, at that rate, in 1 month , can reach yuuuge numbers @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208   Permalink 6:38 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam It is time to stop thinking about pandemic response as a medical effort. Physicians are not trained to evaluate economic impacts, to impose actions for cities, and to engage in the social behavioral change that is needed. Permalink 6:29 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia. Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/brucefenton/status/1231753275252318210?s=20   Permalink 5:53 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb https://medium.com/incerto/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e   Permalink 5:24 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Permalink 5:23 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Finally ideas on religions as non comparable items are starting to spread. pic.twitter.com/U93Bze7JbC Permalink 4:56 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1231740183206338565?s=20   Permalink 4:47 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU, increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity. https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1231587280449654784   Permalink 4:34 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@Renegade_Masta @save_the_tweet #please Fucking idiot. Worst case =total destruction. Best case = inconvenience + being wrong. You take inconvenience every time. And yes I live in the area. There is no such thing as overreaction. @DellAnnaLuca @nntaleb @DrCirillo @yaneerbaryam Permalink 3:54 PM – 23 Feb 2020

@bantofu “We need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all these things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock” Antifragile-@nntaleb Permalink 8:26 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Be predictable in granting rewards; unpredictable in delivering punishment. Permalink 8:01 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@ntarunkumar The really important persons in your life are the ones you shouldn’t have to impress. (A personal twist to something I read in @nntaleb ‘s insight on ethics – Bed of Procrustes – and dog ownership). Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb (Each in a different field: philosophers, historians, pol scientists) Erratum: Paul Veyne not Jules. Add: Jane Jacobs, James Scott, E Le Roy Ladurie, etc. Permalink 5:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Answer to who are the (recent) thinkers I don’t find BS vendors? In random order Saul Kripke, Derek Parfit, Elinor Ostrom, Fernand Braudel, Jules Veyne, Tom Holland, Peter Frankopan, Jean-François Revel, Michael Okeshott, Isaac Levi, Russ Roberts, Jon Elster, many,many, many! https://twitter.com/AndyPeyton/status/1231488319671934979   Permalink 4:44 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@nntaleb From Volume 2 of the technical Incerto: Probabilility, Risk, and Convexity. Vol 1 maps to The Black Swan, Vol 2 maps to Antifragile, Vol 3 to Fooled by Randomness & Big Data [so far] https://twitter.com/JosephNWalker/status/1231514700120252416   Permalink 4:28 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@JosephNWalker Taleb’s problem with Knightian uncertainty is that there’s no such thing as non-Knightian uncertainty: pic.twitter.com/wtvTsIUcDk Permalink 1:42 AM – 23 Feb 2020

@alexandersquats https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1078655258354741248?s=19   Permalink 3:27 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb TRUE JUSTICE If you really want diversity & protection of minorities suffering workplace prejudice, stop chromo-categorizing — that fake unempirical business. Hire unattractive people. They are the one suffering the most, & deprived of attention. Permalink 3:25 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mistakes: ɕeeb shd be bayy el ɕαrd should be l ɕαrd Permalink 12:14 PM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb MED PHILOLOGY DUJOUR The Nicene creed in Lebanese… except that these Maronites have the Filoque “L jeeye mn el ɕeeb w el ɕeben” = “qui ex Patre Filioque procedit” Brilliant except for the heresy! https://twitter.com/henrizaq/status/1231296337494396928   Permalink 11:55 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb L’invidia ha gli occhi e la fortuna è cieca Permalink 8:49 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Gross inconsiderate errors: 1) Ghosn didn’t order an espresso in Arabic, but in the Lebanese Semitic dialect, 3/4 of a language away from Arabic. 2) Beirut was not the “Paris of the Middle East” but the Paris of the Mediterranean. https://www.wsj.com/articles/carlos-ghosns-new-life-in-exile-11582347707?shareToken=st2e30ccfa64584bf696da2e691ecca6d7   via @WSJ Permalink 8:45 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Envy is impossible to conceal. It manipulates you; like a tattoo on your forehead, visible to others but not to you. Permalink 8:40 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb A common mistranslation: \sigma is not necessarily volatility. https://twitter.com/mikeandallie/status/1231227077711552514   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl”>  pic.twitter.com/s4sKRf6mCl Permalink 7:46 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Only the hyperparanoid survive.” #RWRI https://twitter.com/richard49step/status/1231234461976735744   Permalink 7:12 AM – 22 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 7) Results are pouring in! For the Pareto IV (The semi Bell Shaped one-tailed power law. pic.twitter.com/ltRkllCOXR Permalink 3:22 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Taking a class on rationality and probability by @sapinker Pinker is equivalent to +Being taught foie gras preparation by a lifetime vegan. +Being taught random matrix theory by one of the Kardashians. https://twitter.com/FischerKing64/status/1230966699907674117   Permalink 1:40 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@EdmondShami That’s why you shouldn’t trust communists (since they call each other “rafiq”) The Bed of Procrustes, NNT pic.twitter.com/SyT1Bfpo4Z Permalink 1:11 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hilarious! https://twitter.com/INVESTMENTSHULK/status/1230872613297229824   Permalink 12:48 PM – 21 Feb 2020

@Extrachelle 1 essential secret of a good cook: Generosity. Stinginess destroys recipes. Permalink 9:58 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters It’s because reality unfolds over time, not over a statistical ensemble. @nntaleb just did a nice illustration of that, using Kelly-type arguments. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1229799216312180739   Permalink 9:50 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@ole_b_peters Speaking of insurance, here’s how Rothschild and Stiglitz modeled it in 1976. I think @mikeandallie would agree that Berkshire Hathaway would be bankrupt if they were to apply this theory to their insurance business. pic.twitter.com/tbNEzM2ibq Permalink 9:43 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 6) Predictably, for fat tails it is worrrrrrrrrrrrrrrse!!! pic.twitter.com/mDQgooVx7i Permalink 8:11 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Voila. Sans abonnement. pic.twitter.com/PJJlnm1Qjo Permalink 7:35 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 5) In continuous time: the lower bound for a real fair game, not a Mickey Mouse™ bet like this ignorant Thaler. pic.twitter.com/0xed0n6UQL Permalink 7:33 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La photo est horrrrrrrible. https://w.lpnt.fr/2363621t   #Postillon via @LePoint Permalink 3:53 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Je descends dans un hôtel à Paris où habitait André Malraux. Pas de plaque. Même les gens de l’hôtel ne le savent pas. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1230818293734346756   Permalink 3:47 AM – 21 Feb 2020

@yaneerbaryam They let people off Diamond Princess, put them on planes and busses and sent them home. Amazing they thought a 14 day group “quarantine” would help. Instead it spread infection in the group. Shows they don’t understand how infections work. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-two-australians-evacuated-from-diamond-princess-test-positive-in-darwin   https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1230681676617076736   Permalink 6:46 PM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) In other words a single bet per lifetime is linear, more than one bet requires compounding. Nudgeboy Richard Thaler must be stopped from messing with things he does not understand. Permalink 6:15 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) The explanation of why a FAIR bet will bankrupt you sequentially: AM-GM inequality and compounded returns are concave. pic.twitter.com/TJ6XwcImbz Permalink 4:49 AM – 20 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Back in New York after 7 weeks absence. pic.twitter.com/hefmQDpmJy Permalink 5:39 PM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The problem with Bloomberg is not his competence; he has the charisma of a plate of reheated-but-lukewarm unsalted fried cauliflowers. Permalink 9:12 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb It does not mean: 1) Take investment advice from anyone who doesn’t have to work for a living. 2) Never take advice from those who work (note the “has to”). I am glad many rigor vigilantes are correcting errors by commentators. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1230035639070056448   Permalink 8:04 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I have been watching reschedulings for 38 years, since the 1982 LatAm debacle. (Remember I specialize in financial crises). No airline had to worry. @dan_azzi should not say these things without some empirical rigor. Permalink 8:01 AM – 19 Feb 2020

@Lucas_Erik_ Via twitter and his books, @nntaleb has shown me more truth in a month than all my 4 years of college classes combined. He teaches you how to think about something in a way where you can apply it to a different subject entirely. Teaching how to fish instead of giving a fish. https://twitter.com/gnpm72/status/1229539283293409280   Permalink 1:59 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb @beirut_banyan Actually, 1. Permalink 1:06 PM – 18 Feb 2020

@mcsorley_pete “Of what use is a philosopher who doesn’t hurt anybody’s feelings?” —Diogenes of Sinope pic.twitter.com/xh5h2y5qve Permalink 9:29 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) The Mathematica file. pic.twitter.com/WjrSbCvule Permalink 8:07 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb How you *will* eventually go bust on a fair bet: Explaining the Kelly/Shannon/Thorp result & beyond. (& why nudgeboy Richard Thaler @R_Thaler has a serious, serious problem, aside from his other mistakes ). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91IOwS0gf3g&feature=youtu.be   Permalink 8:05 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) My heuristic: if a podcast has had someone like Sam Harris @SamHarrisOrg on, I avoid both listening to & participating in, it. It may be imperfect but the trick cleans up scientism, BS, & absence of scholarship. My allergic reactions to BS have been exacerbated with time. Permalink 7:09 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb As I said above in the thread, IYI robin @robinhanson will not infect himself. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1229768012598796288?s=20   Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb I did not podcast in 2019; will do 1 in 2020 w/ @EconTalker on “Uninformative (less politely, “BS”) metrics in social science” (stat under fat tails, correlation BS, IQ, etc.), largely bec. of long private 2-way conversations. Will cover the new tech book. https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21   Permalink 6:00 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The reason:filtering. I don’t take chances; I block quickly. The minute I smell sloppy reasoning. https://twitter.com/ptbrodie/status/1229489047921287168   Permalink 4:13 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Academics are usually all talk: @robinhanson is a bullshitter; don’t expect him to go infect himself. https://twitter.com/0neof1/status/1229596442098053120?s=20   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 1 million depositors (erratum) Permalink 3:55 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb No, no, no. False claims on my behalf, @dan_azzi My point is quantitative: 12 Bil to pay next 2 y. If you don’t believe in miracles, you will certainly default on a depleted treasury! Meanwhile $4 bil to be paid for rich bondholders satisfy >1 billion depositors (# TK) https://twitter.com/dan_azzi/status/1228983243657162752   Permalink 1:44 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@jaszo “Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star.” -@nntaleb Permalink 1:07 PM – 17 Feb 2020

@kantynho00 Thread by @nntaleb: Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality,exity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead o https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1229066756012085253.html   Permalink 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb East Med Philology du Jour: Today is the day of Theodorus of Tyre. Did you ever wonder why the names Atallah and Atiyeh (as in Michael Atiyah) are only used by Levantine Christians)? Theodorus = gift of God. Atiyeh is the Canaanite version of Atallah Note also: Dorothy. pic.twitter.com/3ArgpYsZrt Permalink 4:18 AM – 17 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3ashu natrin? Ken lézeém n3mol rescheduling bi kénun 2bl l Eurobond l sebe2. 3ajjlo ya shabeb 2abl ma tkhrab aktar. https://twitter.com/neematfrem/status/1229045586739027973   Permalink 6:50 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Discovering Permalink 5:35 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Can you explain, @Fontainebleau ? https://twitter.com/vergilden/status/1228819678543347712   Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21   https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1229060502984306689   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Now “Scrivener Richard” Dawkins is discovery casuistry -& as someone who spent three generations trained by Jesuits I find this insultingly amateurish. “I am not saying eugenics is good However, you know…” Who the fuck you tying to fool, Scriv Richard? https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689?s=21   https://twitter.com/richarddawkins/status/1229060502984306689   Permalink 5:24 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Same with bailouts. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1229070350308257792   Permalink 3:26 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari is a quack. https://twitter.com/GonzaQG/status/1229161201000730626?s=20   Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Harari’s public activities now occupy a staff of twelve. Mine: staff of 0. Why? Simply, I don’t do speaking and interviewing, etc. Except when very bored. pic.twitter.com/3fOdMwjOAI Permalink 1:44 PM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Indeed my dimenionality/teleology argument converges to the Hayekian argument. https://twitter.com/luciansusanu/status/1229092373176692737?s=20   Permalink 9:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “If something looks irrational —and has been so for a long time —odds are you have a wrong definition of rationality.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:50 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 2) Human societies are multiscale: the properties of single individuals *do not* predict those of groups, something he never got with the selfish gene BS. Permalink 7:36 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Aside from how morally disgusting (science journalist & BS vendor) @RichardDawkins is, he doesn’t get dimensionality, complexity & teleology: Unlike animals domesticated for a *specific* purpose, we, humans, would never know ahead of time *what* to select for. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1228943686953664512   Permalink 7:35 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 4) For instance Seneca’s fortune was 300M sesterces, which translates into 75 M dinarii… It takes yeaaaaars to clean up these details. pic.twitter.com/1kNHASqgej Permalink 6:17 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb 3) Also used the wrong currency (“dirarii”), etc. Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The INCERTO has been continuously modified for (so far minor) errors. 1) ANTIFRAGILE:”Roman engineers forced to sleep under the bridge” was qualified as apocryphal, but architects in Asia Minor were still accountable. 2) Some refs to psych. progressively removed. Permalink 5:25 AM – 16 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Which is my way of announcing that Skin in the Game is out in paperback. https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/0425284646/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1227931283898150912   Permalink 2:27 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Belittling a powerful asshole = iconoclast. Belittling a regular person = psychologist. Permalink 2:23 PM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Ignore the bullshitters and note: 1) Bond defaults are routine, in 99.9 % of cases creditors help work out a solution. Ignore lurid non-collaborative cases by scaremongers (Argentina). 2) Gold belongs to the BDL, not to the state, which is shielded. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 11:47 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Mr. Hanson, I have called people “imbecile” for vastly more intelligent comments. Permalink 8:35 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Before bloviating on the consequences of a default, ask international bonds legal specialists like @camilleasleiman rather than bullshit artists. #Lebanon #LebanonProtests Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Eurobond payment must NOT be made 1) Insult to depositors (lack of symmetry).Phoenicians 2700 y. ago had more sophisticated rules of risk sharing! 2) Harms OTHER bondholders 3) Default is inevitable; fail EARLY, come CLEAN Those advocating payment are shills or LUNATICS Permalink 8:06 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Hanson, @robinhanson, you don’t seem to get what skin in the game means (nor do you have a faintest clue what betting is, another story). Skin in the game REQUIRES you to infect yourself NOW! https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228701801949671425?s=20   Permalink 7:56 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb La bureaucratie est un outil pour couper certaines personnes des conséquences de leur actions. [Meilleure traduction] https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1228703994127712259   Permalink 7:38 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The best argument in favor of skin in the game: it can help us get rid of dangerous lunatics & riskblind IYIs before they harm the rest of mankind. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228400896507367424   Permalink 7:23 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb The dynamics above show how nudgeboy @R_Thaler can’t get it: + You MUST turn down most favorable odds because 1) life is not a one period model, and 2) they lead to total bankruptcy. + Mental accounting is an optimal strategy, not “irrational”. Permalink 6:42 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Fixed the colors in the graph pic.twitter.com/yn4BV6hOSS Permalink 4:53 AM – 15 Feb 2020

@nntaleb What Samuelson didn’t get is that the Kelly point is the UPPER bound not necessarily the target –just as Shannon’s capacity. One can simply cut one’s portfolio in half and satisfy his criticism. https://twitter.com/migueldva/status/1228464540867682304?s=20   Permalink 5:14 PM – 14 Feb 2020

@PavelMordasov “It takes some humanity to feel sympathy for those less fortunate than us; but it takes honor to avoid envying those who are much luckier.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/kGuWIWOSBu Permalink 8:23 AM – 13 Feb 2020

@DrMichaelBonner ‘The Last Empire of Iran’ is now in print! https://twitter.com/gorgiaspress/status/1227608394497974274   Permalink 8:49 AM – 12 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “Trust those who are greedy for money a thousand times more than those who are greedy for credentials.” – @nntaleb Permalink 12:34 AM – 10 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Sometimes you run in daily life into people who heap abuse on the internet: they cower. Absence of #skininthegame is a problem. https://twitter.com/otrasenda_AC/status/1226523804148600834   Permalink 8:07 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@otrasenda_AC Maybe is also a lack of #skininthegame on social networks… If you act as an asshole in real live you might get a punch in the face pic.twitter.com/NCICnykixp Permalink 7:10 AM – 9 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Maestro A. Al-Jallad @Safaitic offering me his book in a café in Columbus OH. pic.twitter.com/V52ewrEmGK Permalink 2:07 PM – 8 Feb 2020

@TalebWisdom “The only people who think that real world experience doesn’t matters are those who never had real world experience.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:14 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb #Localism (The fellow is making me aware of my own aphorisms) https://twitter.com/talebwisdom/status/1226110049967394816   Permalink 6:15 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb We need more data but that’s the way to do it: estimations from reliable subsamples. https://twitter.com/aledeniz/status/1226103425508790275   Permalink 4:56 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Getting out of control https://twitter.com/srutunda/status/1226111375426170881   Permalink 4:54 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@imleslahdin Left-Socialism-Brutalism Right-Traditionalist-Classical Polarizing. https://twitter.com/world_classico/status/1225942717374586882   Permalink 12:16 AM – 8 Feb 2020

@RonPaul Did you catch our interview with Democratic Party presidential candidate @TulsiGabbard? Find out what she thinks about her own party shutting her out of the debates: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk   Permalink 3:42 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb Behavioral economics can be summarized as follows: “humans are idiots”. My message: “Maybe, but behavioral economists are most certainly idiots”. Permalink 3:03 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@nntaleb You guys are not getting the joke: I like NJ. It is just that I love NY and there are incompatibilities… Permalink 2:00 PM – 7 Feb 2020

@RonPaul The Only Person That Trump Should Fear On The Debate Stage Is Tulsi Gabbard Watch the whole show with @tulsigabbard here: https://youtu.be/SlCeGEkWApk   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD”>  pic.twitter.com/IfMwRFOijD Permalink 11:10 AM – 7 Feb 2020

Evolutionary Biologists, Ayn Rand, Dawkins, Quilettebeciles, Nate Silver, Mosquitos, Bolton, Pinker, Nudgeboy, Pencilwits, Brasil | Twitter


Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference.

Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence (Hattip Dave Lull)

@nntaleb We had DNA evidence that the ancient Egyptian ruling class came from the North. Socks-with-scandals places them somewhere around what is now Central Germany. https://twitter.com/rabihalameddine/status/1176247307341164544   Permalink 2:55 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3) People have no problem getting Nietzsche, Le Bon, & other’s point that crowds composed of sane individuals can go crazy. It is harder to get the reverse: that some groups of unfit individuals can be fitter than others with better individuals. Permalink 2:10 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 2) These simple comments by the 2 fellows destroy +5 decades of evolutionary psychology/biology, etc. I mean really shatter current methods. pic.twitter.com/Q6Opzp6XFF Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Please do not respond to my claim that “(most) evolutionary biologists are dumb” by calling me an egomaniac/some other pathology or “he says everybody but me is dumb”. Rather, try to grasp the below thread w/discussions by @yaneerbaryam etc. You will then see the gravity. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1176190670433857536   Permalink 1:46 PM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Actually this is a chapter in #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com/reC9hrJ8VD Permalink 11:00 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Do not mess with him. https://twitter.com/Extrachelle/status/1175888089367162880   Permalink 10:33 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I would tell him that he should feel lucky. Compare these to the worst possible nightmare: an association with Ayn Rand. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1176107964656234497   Permalink 10:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@MuserMarco His argument is basicallly that because of nonlinear effects the macro (group) cannot be explained by the micro (individual). A group is not just a bunch of individuals. Or in other words, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Permalink 8:13 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Caro Bret, This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs. Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups. @yaneerbaryam Permalink 7:51 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Cheese Galettes with halloumi & kashkaval made by Syrians from Raqqa (Beirut highway). pic.twitter.com/HrwRVoEW0r Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Sep 2019

@ProBucks_ “naive interventionism” proving detrimental in yet another complex system with long lasting unintended effects. @nntaleb https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1175636181515718656   Permalink 10:36 PM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The art and science of drinking with Russians. pic.twitter.com/GIF8al4S8K Permalink 11:09 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vitello tonnato with squid ink. #OnlyinMoscow pic.twitter.com/EWz9zI60Sf Permalink 8:12 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@GeorgeJNasr #Pedophrasty: Argument involving #Children to prop up a rationalization, & make opponents look like assholes. Nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the #news. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B”>  pic.twitter.com/rioKeFcY7B Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Why is it wrong to be a “group selectionist”, @BretWeinstein ? You do not have to defend yourself ag. the BS vendor @sapinker. The 2 journalists Pinker & Dawkins have been barking/bullshitting w/o showing flaws in Nowak, Wilson et al. #Multiscale & aggregation. @yaneerbaryam https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1175592010662567936   Permalink 5:07 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Khatchapuri pic.twitter.com/AUAA39pjc4 Permalink 4:04 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don’t know it. Permalink 12:11 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Pedophrasty is spreading https://twitter.com/mayurshetty01/status/1175624855837925376   Permalink 12:00 AM – 22 Sep 2019

@nntaleb водка pic.twitter.com/Q85lklqq8Y Permalink 1:35 PM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The great John Gray explains that Christianity is, basically, secular humanism. https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1174383075419197441   Permalink 9:15 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dawkins, as exected, another fake scholar. https://twitter.com/gheathwhyte/status/1175081067943997440   Permalink 7:47 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@RickyDelFuego Next phase begins when the kids start reading @nntaleb and realize the reason no one listens to the “educated” is because someone who collected $100,000 in debt to get a PhD in “empathy as communication” or whatever isn’t worth listening to. https://twitter.com/nicgaston/status/1175302556324651009   Permalink 7:14 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@spyrosmakrid https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1170627288947470336   https://twitter.com/spyrosmakrid/status/1166321418432339969   Permalink 4:12 AM – 21 Sep 2019

@PaulSkallas ”If your private life conflicts with your intellectual opinion, it cancels your intellectual ideas, not your private life.” Permalink 5:53 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntaleb And “psychologist”. https://twitter.com/nntalebbot/status/1175190661538226177   Permalink 4:47 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@GuillermoBurr The results are so aberrant and childish that they remind me of Dr Malcolm in the movie Jurasic Park. When he is informed that all dinosaurs are female and that they cannot breed, he answers: life will find a way (sic) Permalink 4:46 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@Vasilis48814362 When I finished black swan, I felt good, but also in panic because I could not believe for once someone was right on pretty much everything. The smear articles online only worsened this panic. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1175185309073625093   Permalink 4:27 PM – 20 Sep 2019

@holland_tom One is a work of Protestant theology. And one is by me! https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1175053970613706753?s=20   Permalink 7:29 AM – 20 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “it is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most convincing evidence that the psychology of happiness is total BS is to meet “happiness” “expert” psychologists in person. https://twitter.com/alexandersquats/status/1174719753283178496   Permalink 9:31 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@normonics looks like I’ve been using “moron” where I should have been using “imbecile” Nassim gets it right again Permalink 7:41 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@RobRastapop Of all writings I love only that which is written in blood. Nietzsche Not everything that happens, happens for a reason. But everything that survives, survives for a reason. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/M4l1VIZitz Permalink 6:04 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@fpingham Fractal localism means skin in the game and personal accountability @nntaleb https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/999927177259892738   Permalink 5:36 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@AssalehAmer The Bed of Procrustes, https://twitter.com/king4judge/status/1174507514358095873   Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A #Lindy drink. So is its (mild) hangover. Permalink 5:34 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@john_f_hamer “Just as dyed hair makes old men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0bJDJ3rLtS Permalink 4:12 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@themintmag “Every time I have questioned these methods I have been abruptly countered with: “they have the Nobel”, which I have found impossible to argue with.” – @nntaleb Hence the need for the #NotTheNobel. Econ is not a science. Vote for a fresh thinker today! https://lght.ly/g1dmja9   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO”>  pic.twitter.com/uhvtHJoUoO Permalink 3:30 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “What they call philosophy I call literature; what they call literature I call journalism; what they call journalism I call gossip; and what they call gossip I call (generously) voyeurism.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 2:13 AM – 19 Sep 2019

@sean_a_mcclure Many lack the scientific literacy needed to understand the IQ debate. I wrote this conceptual article to help those ill-equipped to form an educated opinion on a massively important topic. https://bit.ly/2m0JtAM   @nntaleb @normonics @trishankkarthik #science #psychology ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS”>  pic.twitter.com/hFJQlrqgxS Permalink 3:15 PM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/0sfzemUBsL Permalink 11:25 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nabilshadman @nntaleb said “Learning is rooted in repetition and convexity, meaning that the reading of a single text twice is more profitable than reading two different texts once.” Permalink 11:00 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@birdxi1988 Jus realize this is extremely important. Not only in psychology but also in finance. This debunked various kinds of CAPM related regression. Eg, Fama–MacBeth regression(for risk premium). Same situation as here: return(fat tail) is regressed over beta(thin). E(R^2) is zero! https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1174231033514008576   Permalink 10:18 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Celebrating the Negroni’s 100th anniversary. (in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/GIf8rimtNf Permalink 8:53 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@willianadamczyk “Modernity starts with the state monopoly on violence, and ends with the state’s monopoly on fiscal irresponsability”. @nntaleb , 2012 Permalink 8:02 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@kudra_1 “Pedophrasty,” coined by @nntaleb: Using children to “prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children.” https://twitter.com/jenniferm_q/status/1174308373526929408   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Sep 2019

@JYuter I’m old enough to remember when people called for civility when someone died (and that’s assuming it’s true) https://twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1174098732905881601   Permalink 4:18 PM – 17 Sep 2019

@garyruskin U.S. Right to Know investigates big food and agrichemical companies. We expose what they want to hide. We stand up for our right to know what’s in our food. Please contribute today: https://www.patreon.com/usrtk   Permalink 9:17 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@venksaiyan Something @nntaleb has been saying for long. Theory often follows Invention. https://twitter.com/davidlayden/status/1173712393312059393   Permalink 1:25 AM – 17 Sep 2019

@sjourdan This new edition of #incerto is beautiful. @nntaleb rocks. pic.twitter.com/wTaZ16iHZh Permalink 10:21 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@exergiovanni I thought religion was irrational. Thanks to professor @nntaleb I changed my mind diametrically. Permalink 6:17 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is not an “error”: this is genetics. Higher dimensions are really unpredictable. pic.twitter.com/1CqvZokuiz Permalink 3:25 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “I am never bothered by normal people; it is the bull***tter in the intellectual profession who bothers me.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game Permalink 2:33 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to not realize that so many “noble” pursuits (academia, service, anything where one is paid with “honors”) are zero-sum. And wealth pursuits, outside of rent seeking, aren’t zero-sum. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1173561683870179328   Permalink 12:42 PM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntalebbot “The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Joey Automata: you need the Quilettebeciles to keep posting complaints about you, not the reverse. Keep irritating them, don’t reply TO them. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1173195884236087296   Permalink 9:55 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There are other errors… the person who put the cheat sheet together is not familiar with probability. Permalink 8:17 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “thinking like Nate Silver” part is a red flag. https://twitter.com/KirkDBorne/status/1173511271544586240   Permalink 8:13 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Vegan is Halal, not the opposite. Much more asymmetric that you think. https://twitter.com/naniiyer/status/1173567520860704769   Permalink 6:50 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@sustain05 pic.twitter.com/Np6mErhFuW Permalink 6:12 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@_benoux_ For those who still don’t get it. Let’s use an another example: @nntaleb published an excellent book, “SKIN IN THE GAME”. A figurative title consolidates a background in probability & statistics. He didn’t name it “Enlightened Reason & Science of Risks in Humanism” (Pinker-like). Permalink 5:36 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@TalebWisdom “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile Permalink 4:38 AM – 16 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb SAUDI FIELDS It’s not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded by the Saudi government. Permalink 6:55 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This is the only compliment that counts, not that I actually agree with the designation “ash*” as a proxy for uncompromizing. https://twitter.com/squidbidness/status/1173310545748848641   Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Friends, we need 3 more applicants for women scholarships for RWRI 12 in New York Oct 24. http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 9:29 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@BLebnene L fasel l 20 min kteb Le Petit Prince bil Libnene bil 7arfen l 3arabe wil Letiine! Tarjamit @HsenAndil الفصل ال20 من كتاب Le Petit Prince باللبناني بالحرفين العربي واللاتيني! https://medium.com/bel-lebneene/l-fasel-l-20-l-miir-zzghiir-f58995d8d080   Permalink 8:17 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@zkortbawy باللبناني”خَلّيك هَون Khallik Hawn” = “إبقى هنا Ibka Houna” بالعربي #بتحكي_لبناني_كتوب_لبناني @BLebnene Permalink 2:13 AM – 15 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sample https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLQ0ryLOWik&feature=share   Permalink 2:48 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Northern Lebanese, from Zgharta. https://twitter.com/manwithahammer/status/1172969296189894661   Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@DrMichaelBonner For flexibility and clarity: Greek; For precision: a tie between Latin and Arabic; For sound: a tie between Syriac and Persian; For rhythm: Arabic; For intricacy: Sanskrit; For interesting texts: Greek, Aramaic, Syriac, and Armenian. For sheer mental exertion: Hieroglyphic! https://twitter.com/Bfklin/status/1172964937741869057   Permalink 1:13 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This guy is good. And he knows his stuff. https://twitter.com/DrMichaelBonner/status/1172845055289245696   Permalink 12:03 PM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, Bill Gates doesn’t get that neomania works with software with reversible errors, not with complex systems. https://twitter.com/PaulSkallas/status/1172904846787301377?s=20   Permalink 9:18 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@Jaffer22915438 FWIW: Tulsi Gabbard had more traffic to her website during the Dem debate than any day since the last debate. Permalink 8:30 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@wrathofgnon We know that modern grains are far less nutritious than ancient grains. Turns out even our great-grand parents ate vegetables that were many times as nutritious as what we are eating today. https://twitter.com/mangan150/status/1172843628898578433   Permalink 8:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Of course, the Genetically Modified Mosquito project has gone wrong, with, really, “unforeseen outcomes”. When will IYIs learn that we don’t understand complex systems enough to play with them? Or when will we learn that science is not scientism? pic.twitter.com/YOAZcvKKav Permalink 6:25 AM – 14 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A reminder that neuroscience, psychology, etc. are NOT reliable, not citable, not useable for anything other than tenure & academic rent seeking. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/   Permalink 1:16 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/myKY0meoT6 Permalink 12:47 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR R^2 is expected to be 0 but in small samples it shows much higher value, here .98. Small is anything <10^8. (cont) pic.twitter.com/3EDMSvpbEB Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt   Part 2 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x”>  pic.twitter.com/ouHZcC9T7x Permalink 12:41 PM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Didn’t we put this, @normonics, in our Precautionary Principle paper? Where did it go? pic.twitter.com/aQ1zF0Peki Permalink 11:20 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb You can’t industrialize, commoditize, & scale knowledge without destroying it at is core. Scholarship is fundamentally an artisanal-style pursuit. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@Contrepoints Face au terrorisme, les #neoconservateurs pensent pouvoir utiliser l’hégémonie politique, militaire et diplomatique pour façonner un monde à leur convenance. Pour @nntaleb, ils font trois erreurs constantes que @FredericMasCP nous explique. #Bolton #Trump https://www.contrepoints.org/2019/09/12/353340-donald-trump-limoge-john-bolton-un-revers-pour-les-neoconservateurs   Permalink 11:06 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From experience, I haven’t seen erudites inside academia (few exceptions). By erudition, I mean solid knowledge (ancient languages, history, mathematics, literature-but-not-literary-theories) & naturally exclude knowledge of crap & theories written since 1924 in social “science”. https://twitter.com/T_Libo/status/1172555372982390785   Permalink 10:17 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The association “juzur lubnan” is doing great environmental work; but it is named using loan words from Arabic. Should be renamed “Shlush Lebnén”. #Localism #StandAgainstArabImperialism Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Neomania in #Antifragile https://twitter.com/berensjoshua/status/1172531835454152705   Permalink 8:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The “naturalistic fallacy” is not a fallacy outside the moral domain. Gabish? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I am scared of living in a society that doesn’t find it obvious that things perfected by nature over millions of years are scientifically speaking, safer than things made by some “scientists” in a lab. [Corrected] Statistically, the “large n” of nature makes it > scientific. https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman/status/1139279122516054018   Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb No bureaucrats in peace discussions without some adult supervision. PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   #Blackswanman http://blackswanman.com/#lg=1&slide=41   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ”>  pic.twitter.com/G6Y4xi1QCQ Permalink 5:12 AM – 13 Sep 2019

@nntaleb NEgotiation. Permalink 2:57 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb This was predictive: Black Swan Man tells Trump to have NO bureaucrat involved in ANY peace negociation. No bureaucrat in anything other than record keeping/clerical stuff. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1165991391995940864   Permalink 1:22 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@black_swan_man https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-12/-negative-rates-is-insanity-says-universa-s-spitznagel-video?srnd=styt   Part 1 of 2 #blackswanman #theblackswanman @RayDalio @ErikSchatzker @BloombergTV #bonds #tailrisk #riskparity #riskparody ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT”>  pic.twitter.com/eEFAjGMaoT Permalink 12:51 PM – 12 Sep 2019

@TheBobber Plant-based burgers may be “safe” but they are loaded with crap that Your Grandmother would not recognize and you would be wise (and healthier) to heed the advice of @nntaleb and avoid them. https://twitter.com/GastroHistory/status/1172214307636932608   Permalink 11:39 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The only honest scientific approach to a system as large and complex as the “climate” is one of acknowledging uncertainty, and proceeding with precaution https://fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf   Permalink 6:13 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@normonics The incessant interventionism of @BillGates and his ilk is enabled by the pathological certainty generated by scientism https://twitter.com/argumentwinner/status/1171979948342546432   Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@city_affairs “The intellectual yet idiot is subscribed to the New Yorker” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/DanielleRyanJ/status/1172109337738862592   Permalink 6:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@oskarth @nntaleb Squid ink in Venesia pic.twitter.com/93o0fEx5Ae Permalink 5:53 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 3rd is the Charm. This continues Cirillo & Taleb (2016, 2019), Clauset (2018) showing Pinker @sapinker statement on decline of wars is total BS. @BillGates shd read the scientific literature before peddling Pinker’s flawed journalistic book. https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/1171960638882467845   Permalink 5:06 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Good news: Jon Entine and the Genetics Literary Project are designed to intimidate and smear GMO skeptics. They kept spread articles on yours truly. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1172111865616490496   Permalink 5:00 AM – 12 Sep 2019

@financequant Got a big laugh in my class this afternoon. “In most sciences if reality and the model don’t match, then the model is deemed wrong. In economics that’s taken as evidence that there is something wrong with reality.” Thing is, I wasn’t trying to be funny. Permalink 5:24 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Excellent news. 40 years of sanctions… Enough unnecessary tensions. Had bureaucrats been involved, the 30 year war would have lasted 300 years. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1171812365576409088   Permalink 1:55 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Il faudrait le traduire en francais. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 1:32 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb France is listening to the idea that IQ is largely a fraud. https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1171826033294741505   Permalink 1:00 PM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A French essayist watched me during a twitter fight. pic.twitter.com/SAFf1rdMeO Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In Brazil met a fellow who plants trees for paper; claimed the 000s trees he planted yuuugely help the environment. STATIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book they cut a tree. DYNAMIC ANALYSIS: when you buy a book, they plant a tree for 5-15 years. Use paper! Similar to ergodicity. Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Since @davidgraeber is a target of Quilletbeciles, here is some information about their intellectual standards. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1171507313045209088.html   Permalink 3:37 AM – 11 Sep 2019

@nntaleb I celebrate a certain class of events (Bolton’s demise, Pinker’s new BS) by drinking Советское шампанское, the only think left from the Soviet Union that still makes sense. Or rather, by taking a few celebratory sips then switching to vodka, arak, pastis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetskoye_Shampanskoye   https://twitter.com/tututpouet/status/1171511489871536132   Permalink 4:41 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In one word, you get Steven Pinker @sapinker and the Mickey Mouse version of Western thought. Never read anything about the enlightenment by anyone (1) insufficiently trained in Greek/Latin, (2) not familiar w/medieval thought, (3) not familiar with theology (comes with (2)) https://twitter.com/_benoux_/status/1171520517586636802   Permalink 1:37 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Another reminder that @charlesmurray is a fake scholar, without even going into his Bell Curve. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1162105686848880640   Permalink 1:15 PM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb There goes my diet! Forgot about this plan to have champaign on the day Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/Bardiaexe/status/1171490805283901440?s=20   Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb That’s the NYT. Trump not looking for regime change in Iran. pic.twitter.com/8HwaHJsI7d Permalink 11:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Thank you. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1171452881729228802   Permalink 9:17 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@NonMeek Transitivity of correlation abused. An #Offshorecomic strip idea sparked by @nntaleb #correlation #IQ #transitivity #SocialSciences For more visit https://buff.ly/2FtBAIE   Buy my here https://buff.ly/2NQzbjY   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup”>  pic.twitter.com/OjwHIxzsup Permalink 9:15 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb IQ does not PREDICT career success. Now that I have the data, found the R^2 close to 0. pic.twitter.com/NmZiaK22xN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: Better presented in a Log Log Plot. 15-25 dimensions exceed the computational capacity of the planet. DNA has 000s dimensions. pic.twitter.com/UpK4TW1Dkm Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@satyakatla What contrasts Taleb frm information theorists (ITs), IMHO, is that he does math mystical, finds physical significance, which I don’t see amongst my wireless (who does mechanically) and IT folks. I’ve had learned more math just by following Taleb than any coursework I had taken. Permalink 5:42 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Rates do not reflect probability but expectation: “recessions” can take many values. This is BS. Will add to the paper on the flaws in binarizing forecasts (cc:@spyrosmakrid ) https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1171392223595905024   Permalink 5:19 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@nntaleb THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY: it always shows up. Here I illustrate it with norms. Curse of dimensionality is what I used to show how 1) polygenic scores are a monstrous fraud, 2) GMO analyses don’t work, etc. pic.twitter.com/DAR8M4bTFv Permalink 5:16 AM – 10 Sep 2019

@QuintusCurtius Great thread. See @nntaleb rip into this historically-inaccurate, agenda-driven depiction of St. Augustine, who was of either Punic (i.e., Phoenician) or Berber ancestry. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1166786776259878912   Permalink 10:06 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb 22 years of fighting for that simple point, everyone understands except social scientists, GMO shills, and ignorant risk peddlers . 22 years: How many fraudsters such as nudgeboy @r_thaler or Phil-the-rat Tetlock @PTetlock should we go through before we get that point? Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb From 1997 https://twitter.com/JerryCap/status/1171051074775654401   Permalink 6:28 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Voila The volume increases from 4/3 to 2^3 pic.twitter.com/kY2A3MoFkI Permalink 4:39 AM – 9 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Added the tutorial on norms to the book (Chapter 3) to show what happens with higher moments of distributions. pic.twitter.com/yvxQaalInx Permalink 5:13 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb David Blaine just tore a deck of cards in half —a real deck. pic.twitter.com/JL97MMuiY3 Permalink 3:00 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of pencilwits didn’t get that it does not mean people always do things for money; it just means that those who are doing somthing “not for the money” don’t go out of their way to inform you of that fact. Blocked a bunch. Permalink 2:50 PM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb When someone says “I am not doing it for the money” he (she) is doing it only for the money. Permalink 9:54 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@QustnEverything Over 10 years since the last recession—this is a reason to be cautious; not complacent. From @nntaleb “The Black Swan” pic.twitter.com/Kr86v3xZJC Permalink 9:30 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb The most humiliating moment: had (a long) dinner afterwards with the 3 cousins who spoke no English. Tried babbling in Portuguese, with help from a few Negronis, two caipirinhas &, of course, wine. At the end one of them complimented me: “how come you speak Spanish?” Permalink 1:44 AM – 8 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Because μεράκι I see as “soul in the game” https://twitter.com/GreekEtymology/status/1170467531955609605?s=20   Permalink 3:51 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Is there a connection between the Greek μεράκι , the Lebanese mara2, (meaning enjoying some activity for its own sake, not the Arabic مرق meaning chicken broth), and the Turkish Meraklı? If so, where is the root coming from? Permalink 12:48 PM – 7 Sep 2019

@EmersonSpartz It’s pure laziness to think procrastination is caused by laziness. “Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.” -@nntaleb Permalink 10:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Dunya guzeli https://twitter.com/ahmadzada_ulkar/status/1170239184029782017   Permalink 7:11 AM – 7 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Brazilian cousins Rubens Taleb, Rogerio Taleb, & namesake Nassim Taleb came to the conference. pic.twitter.com/VgwkbXBZ9v Permalink 6:03 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@apas .@nntaleb-like vignette. pic.twitter.com/LOtKNASgk6 Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Sep 2019

@NavariniLorenzo Italian ambassador to Austria, Sergio Barbanti, is citing @nntaleb’s Black Swan for opening a seminar on diplomat Nigra in Vienna! I guess that the lindy effect is, slowly, working pic.twitter.com/7yUTE0zfQJ Permalink 11:03 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@DrGeneCallahan Over-optimizations: Sterilized kitchens Avoidance of all possible allergens with kids Weight machines that isolate a muscle Work schedules with no slack Economies with no downturns @nntaleb Permalink 9:34 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In all fairness from the 70s to the late 90s, NY was not good-but-crap, rather crap-but-great. Permalink 8:08 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@thackerpd 1 5 Switching gears: Brief lecture on how #Monsanto tracks and works to counter reporters such as @sfoucart @stephanehorel @tristanwaleckx @gaellombart Document shows #Monsanto strategy w/ help from PR firm @PublicisGroupe to counter #MonsantoPapers https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6382792-Monsanto-Response-to-LeMonde.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3″>  pic.twitter.com/TJzO8ddpT3 Permalink 4:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb In the “CRAP BUT GOOD” category, there is an expression about Paolo Maluf: “Maluf steals but delivers” as he kept being reelected in spite of accusations of corruption. Electors preferred a good thief who happens to be a doer to an honest idiot IYI. https://twitter.com/JacopoBambino/status/1169927189128777728?s=20   Permalink 4:18 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Keep trying, blind idiots. https://twitter.com/techreview/status/1169921428969480192   Permalink 4:12 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Don’t judge a city by bureaucratic criteria like traffic jams, cleanliness, safety, etc., but by something deeper in the soul of the place. Jobim:“Morar em Nova Iorque é bom, mas é uma merda; morar no Rio é uma merda, mas é bom.” (“NY is good, but crap. Rio is crap but good”) Permalink 3:53 AM – 6 Sep 2019

@nntaleb A lot of (tasty) meat in the Republica Federativa do Brasil. pic.twitter.com/eDBlIoLfg3 Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Churrasco Brasileiro pic.twitter.com/jhwLDIMiWv Permalink 9:23 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Correction: Sao Paolo is pronounced like the French “saon”. Permalink 6:28 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sao Paulo Don’t be fooled by the orthography. “Sao” is pronounced “san”, Joao like the French “jean”, cançao like the French “canson”. pic.twitter.com/iC48aBofAr Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Sidley Austin did nothing “illegal”. But smearing, targeting, mobbing, and lying are UNETHICAL practices. Unacceptable! Boycott/Blacklist Sidley Austin. https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1169556720089214976   Permalink 3:31 AM – 5 Sep 2019

@adrianaleboss @BLebnene pic.twitter.com/H5mLTHRH6i Permalink 10:28 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@JoshHochschild This price is back. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1156891266220773377   Permalink 7:50 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Mangan150 Why is Vegetable Oil in EVERYTHING? | The History and Corruption Behind Processed Oils https://youtu.be/OGLwGOvvWeg   Permalink 5:17 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you have been employed by someone (Trump, Hillary, or Joey The Knife) as a personal assistant, it is yuugely unethical for you to ever divulge what you saw or heard in that capacity. (Except, of course, if you are subpoenaed, witnessed murder, were asked to commit a crime…) Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@ishirubi It’s September now. Usually, habitually I still buy notebooks and pens for myself. This year it’s different. Grabbed the book for a second round, reading preface, chills chills chills. Looks like I forgot a lot since January. Here we go! #rereadincerto #FooledbyRandomness pic.twitter.com/6sGwFyqXZE Permalink 12:59 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@Prof_BearB Following in the footsteps of Cirillo and Taleb (2016) and Clauset (2018), I hasten to note :-) Thank you, and thanks for the shout-out! https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/1169333423380541443   Permalink 12:39 PM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If these finance “academics” could predict they would not be academics. The only thing they know is how to become academics. https://twitter.com/financialtimes/status/1169227337449312257   Permalink 6:49 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/BjRG2tVnuO Permalink 2:54 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb If you lose money, it can be bad luck. It you blow up, it is certainly incompetence. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 2:39 AM – 4 Sep 2019

@nntaleb Exactly. If you lose money, it can be bad luck. If you blow up, it is never bad luck. https://twitter.com/mightykaos41/status/1169061510339014656   Permalink 2:32 AM – 4 Sep 2019

Pinker, Old Twitter, Epstein, @AlanDersh, LTCM, Option Pricing, GENETICS, Nudging, Eddie Hall, #Corporatism, IQ, Dawkins, #RWRI, Psychologists, Principia Politica, @TulsiGabbard | Twitter

@nntaleb Ms @Rania_Masri I wonder if they subjected you to some middle-school elementary reasoning test before you became “professor”? The Lebanese ministry is NOT preventing foreigners taking jobs that the Lebanese don’t wants to perform. @RaniaKhalek https://twitter.com/rania_masri/status/1152239325972783105?s=20   Permalink 10:16 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there are 7 severe logical fallacies in your response (I mean severe, severe defects in reasoning). Can you find at least one? Give it a try. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152226133976518658   Permalink 8:12 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@spyrosmakrid The M4 Competition ended the long forecasting winter A description of the M4, its major findings/conclusions and detail Tables are available in https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.014   Preparations for the M5 that will use high frequency/hierarchical data have started, scientific advisor NN Taleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ExyziTzJ2d”>  pic.twitter.com/ExyziTzJ2d Permalink 6:54 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Oppa! https://twitter.com/creek_mudd/status/1152190401664704512   Permalink 5:57 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn I have disagreed @nntaleb in the past for being too harsh with Pinker, because it seemed to me that Pinker was wrong but not dishonest. I have now revised my opinion Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn An ethical person does not regret telling the truth in a court of law, even when a bad person benefits from it. This is so important that it’s one of the Ten Commandments Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@davidboxenhorn I read Pinker’s letter of defense (linked) and was disgusted. Not because he did a favor for a friend, and not because contributed to Epstein’s defense, but because he now regrets it https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2019/07/12/tarring-steve-pinker-and-others-with-jeffrey-epstein/   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1150780000108457992   Permalink 5:45 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, please go to the UN in NY and shout blames at Iran, Russia, Belarus, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, China, Turkey, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, France, Panama, Romania, Thailand, CH, HK, Malaysia, Mexico, Colombia, Liberia, Ethiopia… for discrimination against foreigners. Permalink 4:55 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152174536118415360   Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ms @RaniaKhalek, there is nothing xenophobic about a government monitoring labor permits from noncitizens. It is downright DISHONEST to accuse the Lebanese government of xenophobia (partic. when swamped with noncitizens displacing locals) and NOT accuse every other government. https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1152174536118415360   Permalink 4:36 AM – 19 Jul 2019

@QuintusCurtius The Roman dictator Sulla composed his own epitaph, which was: “No friend ever served me, and no enemy ever wronged me, whom I have not repaid in full.” There is a reason why he was called Sulla Felix, or Sulla the Happy. Permalink 10:21 PM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Twitter, @twitter, the new Twitter is horrible. Please give us back the old one. Permalink 4:17 PM – 18 Jul 2019

@mikeandallie (1/5 ish) I missed this tweet yesterday, but thankfully it showed up in my feed today thanks to a retweet from @financequant . The topic of the paper is the question a options trader friend asked me for help on 20+ years ago. It is amazingly cool to see the problem solved. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1151571849685454850   Permalink 10:28 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Intellectual fraud. https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1151617534845698049   Permalink 9:56 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Good news about the American justice system. It corrects itself. Epstein gamed it before with his part time “prison” sentence, something the poor could not afford. He used detectives to (legally) expose the private lives of his witnesses. 000s of offenders cannot afford bail. https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1151877502178123777   Permalink 9:05 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Improved (the LTCM blow up story) pic.twitter.com/l3K0ozQsu7 Permalink 7:38 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb BTW, this was explained 20 years ago in Fooled By Randomness but few got the exact point then. People are surprised to discover that the Incerto has a mathematical backbone. pic.twitter.com/hP4uVGjbeK Permalink 6:59 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY OF PROBABILITY Asymmetry of inference: How to reject the Gaussian in favor of a power law. Easier than you think. From a Quiz posted here. Added to my new book https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/0opH4pHgSa”>  pic.twitter.com/0opH4pHgSa Permalink 6:04 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@TheBillfish Mr. Taleb is 100% right. Execs at publicly traded companies are the equivalent of Communist Party Members, blindly and ruthlessly, doing what they are told to protect their station in life. So few add any value at all, and even fewer bring any innovation. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1151660033891024896   Permalink 5:16 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb روحي و روحك يا روحي روحين بروح ان راحت روحك يا روحي روحي بتروح Permalink 4:19 AM – 18 Jul 2019

@nntaleb https://twitter.com/jonboguth/status/1151665693890359297?s=20   Permalink 6:45 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Practically, any CEO who “rose through the ranks” is competent at being an actor. No exception. Entrepreneur or nothing. https://twitter.com/SOhimor/status/1151663542715723776?s=20   Permalink 6:35 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Anyone who does not distinguish between wealth generation via risk taking and rent-seeking will be blocked here. CEOs are rent seekers –so are B-School types. Innovators and entrepreneurs are risk-takers. Small business owners are risk-takers. We need risk takers. #Skininthegame Permalink 6:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb And year after year the rich are different. #ergodocity https://twitter.com/randpaul/status/1151534219027460097   Permalink 5:12 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 3) Solution and methodology pic.twitter.com/wmkNz6MeUR Permalink 3:29 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) SIMILAR PROBLEM: Someone tells you he saw a human 3 meter tall. What is the probability of the person being delusional (and no such thing as a 3m human) vs the probability of the person being sane and indeed there is a 3m human. Wittgenstein’s ruler, again, but in math form. Permalink 3:28 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb You can inverse the prior to a breakeven point. Permalink 1:11 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Let’s revisit the QUIZ more formally (I am adding it to my next book). https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1003029601625485312   Permalink 12:51 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I can curse on Twitter but never on the page and never never inside my library(ies), simple separation holy/profane. You need separations holy/profane. #Lindy https://twitter.com/JT_ZLC/status/1151576128081006592   Permalink 12:39 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Talking skin in the game: the above pricing is what I have done heuristically, not formally, all my career in option trading. Every single person who held that “tails are expensive” have blown up (LTCM, Niederhoffer, bankers and other idiots) We just formalized & made public. Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Great day, finished the paper on option pricing under power laws. Mother of all results. Shows how tails are underpriced, EVEN now, how theories that tails are “expensive” are by sub-imbeciles. PLEASE TRY TO DEBUNK PAPER (but politely). https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/pzzXmvRu9z”>  pic.twitter.com/pzzXmvRu9z Permalink 12:18 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb To understand non-interventionism and skin in the game in international affairs, and what it has to do with multiscale localism https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Eg8vssypvI”>  pic.twitter.com/Eg8vssypvI Permalink 12:08 PM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntalebbot “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment.” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:30 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Your political opinion has no value if you don’t try to act closer to a judge than to an advocate. Your political opinion has no value if you are an unconditional supporter or detractor of a president. Gabish? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   Permalink 11:10 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@CliffordAsness Nassim wouldn’t block me. He doesn’t block you for being wrong, which I might often be, but for being dishonest. Permalink 10:53 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@DanielLMcAdams If I were the neocons I’d resign in protest!! Time to go, boys! https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/17/rand-paul-iran-talks-donald-trump-1418075   Permalink 10:45 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The ancient Mediterranean : before monotheism, people changed and exchanged rites and gods as we do with ethnic food.” – @nntaleb Permalink 7:16 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@encrier Today is the feast day of Saint Marina the Monk, or Marinos, a Lebanese saint and Patron Saint of Amiun in Northern Phoenicia (@nntaleb). She is venerated by Roman Catholics, Greek Orthodox, Maronites and Copts. May her story be an inspiration to those who read it. pic.twitter.com/JntHGmHep0 Permalink 1:12 AM – 17 Jul 2019

@nntaleb But of course the map has mistakes. There were Phoenician colonies in Provence (Ramatuelle= רמת אל, possibly Marseilles ), Ionia (Miletus). Also note the Punic settlements in the South Med all the way to Spain, a route taken by the “Arabic” language, picked up for similarity Permalink 2:07 PM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Interesting for those of us who are both. https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1150824855329288192   Permalink 1:00 PM – 16 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society; the empiricist an imbecile-proof one, or even better, a rationalist-proof one.” – Nassim Taleb Permalink 11:20 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It does not mean you can’t criticize a system; it means you can’t go after the very foundations of the system that got you there –the Godel-Popper rule. Some minorities have minority rules. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15?source=post_stats_page—————————   Permalink 8:14 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Friends, any questions not covered in Principia Politica? https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ixwVWivh8s”>  pic.twitter.com/ixwVWivh8s Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb #yoga Permalink 7:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Even in Technical Schools, administrators have degrees in “Education” hence indocrination & propaganda. These “education experts” are taking over universities & largely responsible for the rise in costs. Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ideas of expropriation are present among educators as they are prone to social envy. They frequent the rich & feel “I am smart why I am not rich” yet have NO hope of making it on their own. It is therefore natural they indoctrinate our children. https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 5:24 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Before listening to Omar & Tlaib, consider than their parents chose to find REFUGE in the US, not another country. It’s a nonrandom choice. Illegals are crossing borders in ONE direction. I myself came to America because of its properties. Preserving them is my duty. Permalink 5:01 AM – 16 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Society is being destroyed by schools and college teachers. Your children are indocrinated by people who are doing what they are doing because of their limited intellect and practical skills. And the costs TO YOU of such indocrination are ballooning. https://twitter.com/professorf/status/1150916425868910593   Permalink 5:20 PM – 15 Jul 2019

@RandPaul Proud that @realDonaldTrump and I argued with you against endless wars! @POTUS made it clear to all of us at the table, we are getting out of the Middle East quagmire. We’ve been there too long. Time to bring our troops home. https://twitter.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/1150542489549336576   Permalink 9:59 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb MATH PROBLEM DU JOUR In honor of Alexander B. who passed a year ago last week by @SamuelGWalters cc:@SvetlanaBogom13 https://twitter.com/SamuelGWalters/status/1142642280387342336   Permalink 9:42 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@Jeffrey_the2nd “My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like “recognition” and “credit” warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry.” @nntaleb Permalink 9:17 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 1) Steven Pinker misrepresented his meeting with me. I merely exchanged email & trivialities. There was NO technical discussion. So you can take with grain of salt what he says abt #epstein. Besides never diss pple who hosted you (dinner, plane). pic.twitter.com/62fOjUyZRG Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@MarkDice YouTube just demonetized my video about my trip to the White House! It was approved last night, and then as soon as it was published, it was demonetized. Really @TeamYouTube? C’mon. What a joke. pic.twitter.com/6pItapZt98 Permalink 7:13 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@LebaneseAlefBet ܒܬܰܥܪܶܦ݂ ܬܶܩܪܐ ܗܰܝܕܰܐ ܠ ܟ݂ܰܛ؟ Bta3ref teqra hayda l 5at? ܐ ܒ ܓ ܕ #ܐܬ Permalink 6:31 AM – 15 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I am nearly certain she is vegetarian, maybe even vegan. https://www.thedailybeast.com/lashana-lynch-will-play-first-female-007-in-new-james-bond-movie-report?source=twitter&via=desktop   via @thedailybeast Permalink 5:46 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never never compromise. Say it the way it is. Permalink 3:51 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No. It’s not by arguing with “kindness & care” that you break academic mafias, criminal organizations, impostors (psychologists) & lobbying groups. It is by exposing them, making their lives miserable & targeting their audience. Never never argue with a paid BS vendor. Gabish? https://twitter.com/learnfromerror/status/1150287002027397120   Permalink 2:33 PM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Unlike correlation, Mutual Information scales to noise. Shows how correlation of .63 is half the information of .795! pic.twitter.com/XJjHmhk9pQ Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb As to language: stop the intellectual fraud. https://medium.com/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c?source=post_stats_page—————————   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Some philology: Ehden does not come from Paradise or Gan Eden with a (ע), but from Adon (same root as Adonis). pic.twitter.com/QrlP71tZ6q Permalink 10:19 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Food is Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Traditional dress in Lebanon is East Med/Balkan not “Arab” Music in Lebanon is East Med not “Arab” Genetics in Leb are East Med not “Arab” Language in Leb is NOT mutually understandable w/Class “Arabic” When will this Arabist fraud stop? pic.twitter.com/GQeueGbOmv Permalink 9:53 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Practically, your excellency @EUAmbLebanon, NO village in Lebanon has an Arabic name. Ehden is from Aramaic. So are ALL other villages in the North, with the exception of a few Greco-Roman names. Let’s stop this Arabism fraud. https://twitter.com/EUAmbLebanon/status/1150315616735301632   Permalink 9:32 AM – 14 Jul 2019

@bmiloy We were observing the overlap between #RWRI crowd and @SS_strength crowd. I got to SS via @nntaleb; Grant got to Antifragile via @CoachRippetoe. The cultures attract: no-nonsense and no tolerance for BS. Permalink 4:43 PM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is the very definition of anachronistic bigoteering, a violation of the code of political expression, in Principia Politica. Soon we will ban every document written between the emergence of writing in Sumer and the Obama presidency as tainded with “prejudice”. https://twitter.com/AyannaPressley/status/1146788737923407872   Permalink 12:42 PM – 13 Jul 2019

@SteveLaudig @nntaleb https://www.psychologicalscience.org/publications/observer/obsonline/textbook-analysis-uncovers-erroneous-explanations-of-statistical-significance.html?utm_source=APS+Emails&utm_campaign=7b5b70fee3-PSU_071219&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d2c7283f04-7b5b70fee3-62670051   Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Something to thicken the plot for @Safaitic: Did Semitic languages go to Ethiopia from Eurasia/the Levant? Ethiopia is clearly a back migration, and a recent one! pic.twitter.com/VPZkLwcWan Permalink 11:33 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@otrasenda_AC Thank you Maestro, since you started with the IQ debunking I stop using correlación, now using Mutual Information. I’ve been suspecting that correlation had a lot of issues but you out it Crystal clear Permalink 9:45 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Not how markets work. If the stock price surged on the news, it means the price (which had been pricing-in the information way before the announcement) was embedding the expectation of a more severe fine. https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1149943366848843777   Permalink 8:24 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Separate people into 2 categories: prostitutes vs. those who do things for love, like Maestro B. did math for love. Academics are mostly prostitutes working for rank, metrics, prestige, etc. Or playing the system a la @sapinker — @MarcosCarreira helped & wrote an epilogue. Permalink 7:17 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb GENETICS (PROBABILITY) DU JOUR Points that appear equidistant in PCAs the way they are presented should not be! It you translate into Mutual information, you get a different story. A correlation of .5 is a lot closer to .4 than it is to .6 ! pic.twitter.com/XKcDeujOdR Permalink 6:42 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@EastMedMonitor Nice one answering NeoOttoman false education…. I wonder what % of “Turks” in Turkey has originated from the Mongol invaders? The rest are islamized Christian population! Do the Turks dare to check if their “history” is substantiated by genetics science?@nntaleb any comments? https://twitter.com/pan_naxos/status/1149039774780579840   Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@EastMedMonitor My comment is not to prove anything nationalistic but to say that the people wish good neibourhood relations,peace and stability and basically we are one race genetically in #EastMed .Prejudice,religion and false education turns one against the other Permalink 6:01 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Maestro B. lived for math, in a nonacademic way. He had a hearing problem & left academia to do math. Luckily he was close to finishing the book compiling the twitter probability riddles. The book is now finished; to be published thanks to @WolframResearch Pict 2 w before. pic.twitter.com/VxmR5q2Dxg Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb A YEAR WITHOUT MAESTRO ALEXANDER B. One Saturday morning, last July when I opened Twitter to engage Maestro Alexander Bogomolny, @CutTheKnotMath, I received a DM from his son saying he was no longer with us. Maestro had built a yuuugely motivated community around his math. Permalink 5:44 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never complain about your enemies. You can insult them, anger them, expose them, but never whine about them. Push them to complain about you. Permalink 4:52 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@spyrosmakrid Is there a better way to predict the next economic downturn? (see https://fortune.com/2019/07/11/economic-downturn-prediction/  ) By looking at the behavior of business cycles the answer is no https://www.nber.org/cycles.html   see also Graph So the best alternative is to accept it https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/why-forecasts-fail-what-to-do-instead/   @nntaleb @mikeharrisNY ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Whm28jd9oK”>  pic.twitter.com/Whm28jd9oK Permalink 12:37 AM – 13 Jul 2019

@oldmanjingles And @nntaleb is twitter’s, and the world’s, most overrated. don’t @ me. Permalink 5:28 PM – 12 Jul 2019

@iosif_lazaridis A misrepresentation of our Haak, Lazaridis et al. (2015) study @SmithsonianMag “They particularly latched onto two studies from 2015 which claimed to show … that predatory bands of young men from the Yamnaya culture of the Eurasian steppe swept…” https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-ancient-dna-gets-politicized-180972639/   Permalink 4:24 PM – 12 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “France took Algeria, hoping for a country to eat cassoulet and instead France is now eating couscous.” – @nntaleb Permalink 10:59 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@normonics As @nntaleb has articulated, the existence of localism is related to the identification of what it is that in fact persists. This is related to Whitehead’s fallacy of misplaced concreteness: we confuse the administrative with the actual A town persists longer than a nation. Permalink 10:31 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@CaseyBHead A huge systemic risk that almost no one talks about, except @nntaleb. Permalink 9:05 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Thanks. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1148774867791175680   Permalink 8:43 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I’ve done numerous podcasts w/@EconTalker: each one is about a specific point; you try to go as deep as possible. It’s not about the person but the narrowly defined subject matter. Permalink 7:19 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Although I agree with libertarians on many points, the rich (Epstein) should never have an advantage w/ JUSTICE over a poorer (or weaker) person. Epstein used $$ to hire detectives & bully his victims & the prosecutors. Hence the Acosta deal. Legally. Permalink 6:35 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@ninconanco21 These yutzes need to read @nntaleb. Augustine was half Berber, who are Mediterraneans, not Arabs and not black Africans. https://twitter.com/scottmgreer/status/1149668167674765312   Permalink 6:18 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb For those not getting it: he inflicted worse than a double injury, a compound one. The girls were victims of abuse & subsequently the targets of a smear campaign. Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The most loathsome thing abt Epstein: he had detectives probe the lives of the girls who accused him, & reveal embarrassing stories in court. Girls were too scared to testify. This may explain Acosta’s deal. @AlanDersh, as his lawyeer, you must have known about these tactics. Permalink 4:41 AM – 12 Jul 2019

@nntaleb It is a mistake to think that science has anything to do with scientists. Science is a mechanism. See SCALE TRANSFORMATION in my new treatise PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Hor7fKldad”>  pic.twitter.com/Hor7fKldad Permalink 1:20 PM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Closed to podcasts; except for those with @EconTalker because it can be two-way Socratic. I learned a lot from him. & his audience is v. sophisticated. If your idea doesn’t grow from the conversation it becomes downright marketing. & painful conversation. TV lasts only 3 minutes. Permalink 10:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb No https://twitter.com/mrbenjohnstone/status/1149353521910878209   Permalink 9:40 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Some people are starting to get from the paper above why psychologists are charlatans https://twitter.com/eduardohorta/status/1102904900768489472?s=20   Permalink 9:10 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@MohajerSia @nntaleb I’ve learned more from reading the Incerto 2X this year than I have from wasting a good portion of my life in formal education. You probably won’t see this tweet but the Incerto helped me learn new ways/tools to better understand my life and the world around me. Permalink 9:07 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb New Draft (related to IQ testing): Common Misapplications and Misinterpretations of Correlation in Social “Science” https://www.academia.edu/39797871/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_   via @academia Permalink 8:24 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Updated my next technical book (Technical Incerto, Vol1). Will soooooon be done. https://www.academia.edu/37221402/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_   via @academia Permalink 6:34 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@MarcGoldich “Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience.” @nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/974280945388965888?s=21   https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1149223504652513281   Permalink 5:04 AM – 11 Jul 2019

@CTrivalle « La modernité nous inflige un châtiment double : vieillir beau- coup plus tôt et mourir beaucoup plus tard. » (@nntaleb ) Permalink 9:36 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard The #1 responsibility our president has is as Commander in Chief. As a soldier for more than 16 years who has deployed twice to the Middle East, I will be ready to be Commander in Chief on day one, and I won’t be listening to the chicken hawks clamoring for more war. #Tulsi2020 pic.twitter.com/YLceDyg5XN Permalink 6:23 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb ENTROPY & GENETIC MAPS The distance between points needs to be scaled differently from correlation methods: covariances do not map to informational distances. We need to redo genetic maps from scratch! @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/OIfNbG0Ka5 Permalink 4:02 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Salafi sheikh in France is banning French students from studying non-Sharia law as “paganism”. Clearly, EU ketchupbrains, Salafism is not a “religion” but an absorbing law. EU ketchupbrains were fighting “terrorism” when that stuff has been funded by Saudi Barbaria/Qatar. https://twitter.com/breakofmilv/status/1095053726249828357   Permalink 2:45 AM – 10 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The smart thing Trump could do is dump him. https://twitter.com/secretaryacosta/status/1148618148490481664   Permalink 7:04 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Squid ink with @auerswald pic.twitter.com/9PDx1nRAwJ Permalink 5:49 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Guru @GuruAnaerobic has a theory that what makes life easy for predators is that there are suckers who walk around with “Sucker” written on their forehead. Below: both the speaker and the audience. https://twitter.com/NESTInsight/status/1146736084413505536?s=20   Permalink 12:19 PM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Laibson at a lecture explained how pple are irrational & need nudging: “this is a great investment strategy guaranteed to make money. Yet people don’t invest much, they need nudge”. Didn’t hit him that citizens can detect that such strategy may be a sucker trap for Harvard profs. Permalink 11:45 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Nudging is the most sinister activity whereby IYIs (who can’t find a coconut on a coconut island) manipulate citizens. Much more sinister than outright state control because you don’t know feel the manipulation. People like Laibson and Thaler need to be exposed. https://twitter.com/NESTInsight/status/1146736084413505536   Permalink 11:35 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR: You can’t fool entropy measures. Mutual information is nonzero for “uncorrelated” fat tails simply because they are uncorrelated but not independent! Also pulls the MI for a Student cc:@ArthurB pic.twitter.com/5Z4NImxNF0 Permalink 7:27 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Deutsche Bank, a summary: The Robert Rubin Trade. Banking is about hiding tail risks and the accumulation of tail exposures. Claims that it is “safe”. Society pays for the blowups. pic.twitter.com/ob1e3PeeLG Permalink 4:40 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@BiankaB12 One of the more valuable lessons I’ve learned in school is that degrees without erudition are not worth the paper they were printed on. Later in life, @nntaleb confirmed this axiom, and his work helped change the course of my life in a lot of ways. https://medium.com/@BiankaB12/on-education-an-institutionalized-destruction-of-virtues-1ba7fd57e3f9   Permalink 4:15 AM – 9 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Random order https://twitter.com/junkiedragon/status/1148368675608682496   Permalink 4:13 PM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2/ Epstein claims his activity is “Managing money for people with net worth > 1 bil”. DUBIOUS. Family office not an easy business; very unprofitable, people underpaid: billionaires have zillions of financiers watching their money. Plus the customer base is narrow. Permalink 1:57 PM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb I once drove Mandelbrot to Epstein’s mansion in NY. Had never heard of him & nobody else knew him yet Epstein was a publicity hog. Warned M. maybe laundering or mafia, not finance, shd avoid him. There are financiers who leave no footprint but those never have public life. https://twitter.com/libertyblitz/status/1148290935148535808   Permalink 11:28 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Those who believe that “statistically the least educated vote Conservative.” means “the most intelligent” need some real world education. https://twitter.com/profamirattaran/status/1148268855413944323   Permalink 10:18 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY yawmiyyé Min wén jéyé klmét “tfingé”? Ma 3am lé2é masdara. Permalink 6:33 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Interventionistas (Iraq, Lybia, Syria) such as Thomas Friedman (@tomfriedman @NYT), thanks to industrial scale, have each caused more deaths than any artisanal serial killer. https://twitter.com/TalebWisdom/status/1148203732720672774   Permalink 6:21 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@john_f_hamer A CELEBRATION OF WHAT WORKS: A conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, and why stated beliefs habitually fail to reveal underlying preferences. https://apple.co/2GQWrY4   @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Wp2rrXPYAR”>  pic.twitter.com/Wp2rrXPYAR Permalink 5:09 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Here is are probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww/videos   Permalink 4:03 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Here is my probability mini-lectures, 5-10 min around technical points of the INCERTO https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww   https://twitter.com/Capeya1/status/1146239661079171072   Permalink 3:51 AM – 8 Jul 2019

@nntaleb This is mostly noise. But read the “correlation” buzzwords BS to see how “Phd” pple don’t know how to think. https://twitter.com/aedmans/status/1147494932183179264   Permalink 4:53 PM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Incidentally, the country IQ for Lebanon is total fraud. It was designed by a fraudulent group [see tweets]. Even proxies don’t compute, since math education level is higher than Western Europe. Permalink 9:47 AM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Everything before the “but” is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the “but” should be ignored by the listener. Bed of Procrustes, 2nd ed. Permalink 5:56 AM – 7 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Determination https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1147674538324267008   Permalink 6:24 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb IQ testing is like making cars compete in a racetrack, and use it to make claims about their ability to cross a dense forest (with unpaved roads) such as the Amazon. Permalink 5:07 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Crossing my fingers. I have some Champagne ready for the day when Bolton is out. https://twitter.com/GarethPorter/status/1147606311326158850   Permalink 1:50 PM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If you are trying to be liked by both the left and the right, you are a demagogue. If you don’t mind being hated by both, you are morally upright. Permalink 8:28 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So Thanks to Maestro @ArmandDAngour we can surmise that people at the hippodrome of Tyre, Lebanon, were shouting “Eλα!” centuries before the very notion of “ya alla” and monotheism could have reached them. @Jonassibony pic.twitter.com/A5TeCJI72E Permalink 5:47 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Ma 7ada min jdudak 7kyo lfs7a, la bin 2arib, w la min b3id. Permalink 5:40 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb LOCALISM,1 Governments come & go, bureaucrats stay. Ministries & agencies aren’t run by ministers & transitory figureheads, but by a “deep local microstate” of civil servants who have been there for decades & “own” the inside. Worse: EPA was run by Monsanto, FAA by Boeing. Permalink 5:02 AM – 6 Jul 2019

@nntaleb In today’s ultra-differentiated ecosystem, being a PROBABILIST is a valuable specialization. It’s all applied nonstandard statistics. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1005490626195017728   Permalink 2:21 PM – 5 Jul 2019

@TulsiGabbard 94,379 unique donors! Keep spreading the word and RT to share with friends. Become a debate donor and help bring our voice to the 3rd debates! http://tulsi.to/the-debates   Permalink 12:40 PM – 5 Jul 2019

@MatthiasGalvin If there’s one thing I’ve learned from @nntaleb it’s that understanding probability theory is yuuuuuugely more useful than understanding tools of statistics Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@BryanAccra “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:08 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@yvespatte “It is vastly more respectable to come to politics rich than come out of it rich” “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connection imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer” – @nntaleb “Principia Politica” https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/lesoirplus/status/1146823037209198598   Permalink 1:30 AM – 5 Jul 2019

@nntaleb More details from real world (finance) applications. Genetics data are Gaussian, making the transformation more robust. pic.twitter.com/FsiWBK28Xt Permalink 4:17 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The Romanian Orthodox Church ows me 2 (re)conversions, at least. https://twitter.com/t_wordy/status/1146873927391514625   Permalink 1:23 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@QuincyMckall @nntaleb explains this better I can https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1015276380416770048?s=19   Permalink 1:08 PM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Shermer, fucking fabricator, you are trying to divert from the fact that the review is about ANOTHER book, skin in the game, which was done in Skeptic AFTER I exposed you as a charlatan. It is an ethical violation to use a journal to settle scores. An ethical violation. Permalink 8:48 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@LebaneseAlefBet Stop Abusing the Lebanese Language, in Lebanese we say LEBNÉNIYÉ not LEBNÉNIYÍN. https://twitter.com/ChristelleNehm4/status/1145624918052225025   Permalink 8:24 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Trying genetic maps: they are misinterpreted. “Linear correlation” is nonlinear to information. But a trick for rescaling works when data is Gaussian. cc @ArthurB pic.twitter.com/LC9BhWVx8J Permalink 7:19 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Il dormire fa come il mangiare (Qui dort dine) Dig deep and all these sayings are Med and #lindy https://twitter.com/Spfannenschmidt/status/1146783770512625667   Permalink 7:16 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Eddie Hall @eddiehallWSM who deadlifted >1000lbs lost weight! Apparently without too much effort. Easier to go from strong and fat to strong and fit than from skinny (or skinny fat) to fit. pic.twitter.com/llQWq2oBwg Permalink 5:57 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@TalebWisdom “The problem with academics is that they really think that nonacademics find them more intelligent than themselves.” – @nntaleb Permalink 5:36 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@Sweetvinny1 Harris and Pinker make monstrous errors and Taleb catches them red handed (with documentation, you know, math, that don’t lie) and they attack his personality not his rebuttal and you support it, you fucking half wit. Permalink 4:01 AM – 4 Jul 2019

@Rhiju “boring is the only very bad thing for a book.” – @nntaleb (You can read this one a hundred times & discover something new everytime) http://amzn.in/1rZ9iwx   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/6fIVTL5ybV”>  pic.twitter.com/6fIVTL5ybV Permalink 11:55 PM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Hammurabi’s code: false accusers are to be treated as if they committed the violation themselves. #skininthegame #symmetry https://twitter.com/assalehamer/status/1146557975844179968   Permalink 4:29 PM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Having lunch with a vegan fellow. He challenged me: produce solid research and he would change his mind. Solution: asked him to follow @Mangan150 for 40 days as well as the conversation around his posts. Permalink 10:10 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The larger the corporation, the more likely it will try to screw citizens. Your local butcher, barber, grocer, and baker aren’t in the business of lobbying/manipulating science. Monsanto, Weapons makers, Pharma live off coersion, manipulation of science, & propaganda #Corporatism Permalink 8:28 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) Monoculture & linguistic formalism cannot be maintained without state coersion. 2nd French Nobel in Literature was to Frederic Mistral who wrote in Provencal. The process started by Jules Ferry managed to get it extinct. Micronationalism (Catalan, Basque) is just localism Permalink 7:13 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Fascism is an absorbing identity: Napoleonic killing all local languages/cultures; Italian unification, Franco, Ataturk. Worst is “Arabism”. + Monoculture + Centralized state + State defined “identity” via “educated elite” + Nonfractal https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   @QifaNabki Permalink 5:15 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Michael Shermer you published a review of #SkinInTheGame in YOUR journal AFTER I exposed you of a charlatan/intellectual fraud. It is unethical: you should reveal that you are using your journal for such purposes. UNETHICAL. Gabish? https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1146202975200784385?s=20   Permalink 4:19 AM – 3 Jul 2019

@nntaleb OK, OK, after all this procratination time to finish the work on the formalization of the #Lindy effect pic.twitter.com/XTVQNvTtws Permalink 5:28 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Shermer doesn’t get that when someone is called charlatan, & it is true, best strategy for @michaelshermer is to stay quiet. People may then scrutinize his “empiricism” & MY claims. & Using one’s journal for personal retaliation is an ethical violation. https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1146169906666151937?s=20   Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@fractalharry Ce moment magique de Twitter où une personne like mon tweet et c’est mon auteur favori @nntaleb auquel j’étais très exactement en train de penser en ecrivant ce même tweet ! (Cf notion de iatrogénie notamment expliquée dans Antifragile.) pic.twitter.com/u9Vc08UC4j Permalink 12:38 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb The journalist Pinker @sapinker, while posing for an arbiter of statistical truths, mistakes data for anecdotes and anecdotes for data. Nobody illustrates pseudo-empiricism better than him & that other charlatan @michaelshermer Anecdotes vs statistical significance https://twitter.com/LorenzoWVilla/status/1145815737925345280   Permalink 12:13 PM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Answer with Monte Carlo to illustrate pic.twitter.com/TTVWkZ7tdA Permalink 11:16 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb If the Iliad survived, it is precisely because it is not summarizable. #Lindy https://twitter.com/shaarsh2/status/1146113480577208320   Permalink 10:49 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ThomasJefferson #liberty #independenceday #GOAT pic.twitter.com/KBD96ZnEy4 Permalink 9:33 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@TheDefenderA My reading choices have changed drastically since reading Incerto. Books by doers (unless it’s a novel, and isn’t a New Age fable i.e. Coelho). Via negtiva – no books by career professors or journalists (w very limited exceptions). Any philosophy – Lindy. Permalink 9:11 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Political discussions violate rigor/ethics. No matter how much you hate Trump, never blame him for stuff for which you didn’t blame others. The code of ethics is in PRINCIPIA POLITICA https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   https://twitter.com/brandondarby/status/1146045973535309825   Permalink 7:54 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@jadabdala Touristification of minds on the way from Athens to Berytus. In the photos – Tourist 1 – Tourist 2 (Coelho, plz no) – Me (fuck you tourists) pic.twitter.com/YTLK2kxgYc Permalink 5:20 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb 2) The entropy/information theory approach to correlation is mutual information, similar to Kelly criterion: How much can I bet on the value of Y knowing X? If Y certain (ρ=1), infinite. If ρ=½, tiny. All IQ psychology is worthless. Permalink 4:36 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@hhlahoud It’s amazing how many words we say, are Syriac in origin! Example: ِدِيرْ=ܕܝܪ =direct بال= ܒܳܐܠܳ = mind زَلمي= ܙܰܠܳܡܳܐ= a fellow Lebanese: ! ديرْ بالك من ها الزَلمي Arabic: ! كن حذراً من هذا الشخص English: Beware of this fellow! Permalink 4:35 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb DataScience 101 #RWRI showed how elementary but nonlinear concepts like “correlation” are poorly understood by pros. One needs to translate ρ into information. See how ρ= ½ is much closer to 0 than to a ρ=1. Yuuge diff betw .9 & .99 Psychologists cluelss for 50 years. 1/n pic.twitter.com/pvnCKJrIwu Permalink 4:32 AM – 2 Jul 2019

@nntaleb On second thoughts, yuuuuuuuuge caution is needed. There is no foreign “revolution” that Soros did not like… So I wonder about this policy. Plus some individuals can be suspect… So guarded optimism. http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/july/01/shocker-charles-koch-and-george-soros-to-team-up-and-form-foreign-policy-institute/   Permalink 3:05 PM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Never allow unsollicited advice from friends. Every time someone gave me a “friendly advice” on 1) writing style, 2) trading strategy, 3) How I should not be weightlifting, 4) Why I shd be nice to Monsanto, etc., I’m glad I did opposite. Be stubborn. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b   https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/1145768968168333312   Permalink 12:22 PM – 1 Jul 2019

@DanielLMcAdams Excellent analytical point. https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1145757977548402695   Permalink 11:19 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb QUIZ on IQ interpretation I wish some IQ psychologist could walk away from the verbalism BS and answer it. pic.twitter.com/IOR6miRIN3 Permalink 11:08 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@RonPaulInstitut Trump Meets Kim In North Korea – Why Are The Democrats Hysterical? – today on the Liberty Report: http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2019/july/01/trump-meets-kim-in-north-korea-why-are-the-democrats-hysterical/   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/7Ce0rEOkxg”>  pic.twitter.com/7Ce0rEOkxg Permalink 10:28 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb So as Maestro @ArmandDAngour has shown Έλα! has been present in Greek 1200 years before the language now called Arabic reached the Med. The distinction “ya alla” and “yalla” is obvious from noncorrelated usage. https://twitter.com/ArmandDAngour/status/1145225927930068992   Permalink 3:46 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@nntaleb Who needs an IQ test when you can detect someone’s coherence, intellectual depth, and ability to reason without circularity in… a single tweet? https://twitter.com/DarrenJBeattie/status/1145529656931758084   Permalink 3:01 AM – 1 Jul 2019

@matthewglickman Please retweet to help #findmaxchung highschooler missing now for 12 days https://twitter.com/nypdmissing/status/1140954238748635136   Permalink 5:51 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Sign me up! Noninterventionism >>> everything else @tparsi https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1145410888612175872   Permalink 1:43 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People don’t get that a publisher in NY selling books written in NY to readers in NY but printing in China needs to obey Chinese censorship. Most annoying is that publishers and authors were wimps: I was the ONLY one to stand up. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/14/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hits-out-at-chinese-printers-censorship-of-his-book   Permalink 1:01 PM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Here is my piece on the circularity of tests among other problems: testing is good for testtakers https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 11:04 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Ther’s a serious mathematical mistake in the podcast. If you give more time to the tortoises you will still get a bell curve. The top 10% will have a different composition, fewer hares. You can’t get 20% in the top 10%: the bell curve is normalized. Otherwise @gladwell is right. https://twitter.com/BigTimHerron/status/1145367373941215233   Permalink 10:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Globalization pic.twitter.com/ar0NsBX0Rg Permalink 9:49 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@Jaffer22915438 1) Real World Business & Marketing: What follows is a Tweetstorm that are real life lessons learned the hard way. This is a mini real world entrepreneurial guide. I included links to blog posts when appropriate. Inspired by RWRI & @nntaleb Permalink 8:44 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Wilson justifiably called @RichardDawkins a “journalist”. Dawkins doesn’t understand complicated probabilistic processes. But he is good at bullshitting & swaying the public. https://twitter.com/UtilaTheEcon/status/1145226870717177856   Permalink 4:09 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@PabloinSilence Lo recomiendo de @nntaleb, muy en línea ( Principios 1, 3 y 10): https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   La fraternidad no tanto como un elemento de una terna sino como una escala necesaria en la organización política. Uno de los errores sería asumir q las políticas son “libres de escala”. Permalink 2:43 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@alxpr1c3 same as Nassim’s “it’s ok to confuse a stone for a bear; not a bear for a stone.” https://twitter.com/KVdP_vliegt/status/1145058876326383617   Permalink 1:48 AM – 30 Jun 2019

@digvijoy_c https://news.bitcoin.com/why-bitcoiners-are-turning-to-unschooling-for-decentralized-education/   people who get localism and decentralization just seek it everywhere . #homeschool Permalink 7:45 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@JamesMarsh79 Modern Science Could Hit Roundup Maker Monsanto Where It Hurts – Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-28/modern-science-could-hit-roundup-maker-monsanto-where-it-hurts   Permalink 5:38 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Only 1% of people in desk professions understand their subject matter. But 99% of prostitutes understand prostitution. #RWRI 11 (#ExpertProblem) Permalink 2:03 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@KVdP_vliegt On my way back home from #RWRI reading @rorysutherland great book Alchemy and just read below quote. It re-iterates @nntaleb point that it is always rational to be paranoic. pic.twitter.com/DQYvhuTVVL Permalink 12:58 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin I wanna thank all the people I met at #RWRI: @nntaleb for making it happen. @Mehdi_IR_DC & @chasechandler for their time. Special thanks to @trishankkarthik for always challenging/embarrassing me and to @famadeo for saving me face All others on and off twitter that I forgot. Permalink 12:16 PM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Philology du jour (more): Yalla! in Lebanese (let’s go!, come!) comes from Έλα! Permalink 9:48 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 14 That funding causes innovation. False. Innovation brings funding. Permalink 8:56 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@JackConnorWoo Still buzzing from #RWRI. Can’t describe in words how intellectually satisfying this course is, nor how good it feels to be around such smart people like @normonics @NiloufarKhavari @diomavro and of course the incredible @nntaleb. But I’m going to try, blog post (coming soon). Permalink 6:38 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The Lebanese Tshbi7 (shabba7) تشبيح comes from the Canaanite/Phoenician שבח, to praise, glorify (teshba7to moryo in Syriac= Praise the Lord). Its current meaning is “produce hot air” or “pontification with extreme exaggeration”. Permalink 6:03 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@amconmag “At the end of the Cold War, we were the lone superpower. Who forfeited our preeminence? Who bled us of 7,000 U.S. lives and $6 trillion in endless wars? Who got us into this Cold War II? Was all this the doing of those damnable isolationists again?” https://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/memo-to-trump-trade-bolton-for-tulsi/   Permalink 5:30 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@mdvex Corporatism is not capitalism. The true cost hasn’t been paid yet. Corporatism is politically postponed bankruptcy. Permalink 2:19 AM – 29 Jun 2019

@caitoz The Forever War Is So Normalized That Opposing It Is “Isolationism” “Under our current Orwellian doublespeak paradigm where forever war is the new normal, the opposite of war is no longer peace, but isolationism.” #war #peace #TulsiGabbard https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/the-forever-war-is-so-normalized-that-opposing-it-is-isolationism-8b4062aed18b   Permalink 6:33 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@YoungSandboxer Unbelievable week #RWRI. Couldn’t recommend more Met intellektual hero of many years @nntaleb, as well as @trishankkarthik & others passionate about complexity + risk So much new knowledge—but the funny thing is, I am even more curious about this stuff than before the class! Permalink 4:12 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik And now, organically-developed heuristics from #RWRI attendees Let’s look at some old ones: “The world is more fat-tailed than you think.” Permalink 1:09 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@diomavro @nntaleb @trishankkarthik, say we should be concave to passwords. And hackers can’t take riskless pictures. #RWRI. pic.twitter.com/FqK93jfjot Permalink 12:38 PM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lunch #RWRI pic.twitter.com/oImidN1PCs Permalink 9:59 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@imleslahdin “If you wanna start Data Science from scratch, start with Information Theory.” -Nassim Taleb @nntaleb #rwri #datascience Permalink 9:08 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Machine learning pic.twitter.com/I70lrsBRnM Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 5th day #RWRI 11 Aerospace pic.twitter.com/tokAvk3lal Permalink 6:31 AM – 28 Jun 2019

@diomavro @trishankkarthik trying to convince us that his bald head is more elegant than Russels axioms. #RWRI pic.twitter.com/dUvEuuCc53 Permalink 11:10 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik “A probability distribution cannot tell you if the realization belongs to it.” Permalink 9:24 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb tawking about how the Masquerade problem (you can reject but not prove something is a Gaussian) is related to Gödelian self-reference… #RWRI Permalink 9:23 AM – 27 Jun 2019

@Jaffer22915438 I wrote a blog post on the plane based on a question Nassim asked me at #RWRI . I will proof tomorrow snd post. Topic? Facebook fraud. Stay tuned Permalink 12:48 PM – 26 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Rule 110 (by @stephen_wolfram) discussed by @financequant #RWRI pic.twitter.com/PfU4QatfPV Permalink 8:41 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@diomavro Raphael interrupting @normonics, and @nntaleb trolling him #RWRI pic.twitter.com/QlxYgorjq5 Permalink 7:26 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Furthermore, such a program should also compensate those who did not borrow. And charge the universities and real estate developers for the costs of the bailout. #Skininthegame https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1143585114968010752   Permalink 1:59 AM – 26 Jun 2019

@paulanawfal Merely two days have passed and I have already learned so much. Let’s see what the next three days shall hold @nntaleb #rwri_11 pic.twitter.com/QEokhcFD0T Permalink 6:01 PM – 25 Jun 2019

@sergesapiens 4m post #RWRI10. If you accept @nntaleb maths anchored in the real world, put your skin in the #RWRI game! As much as you think you’ve got it, you‘ll learn some more and you’ll root yourself deeper in the moat with immediate benefits. Permalink 4:14 AM – 25 Jun 2019

@phl43 In 2008, Science published a paper which found that conservatives had a stronger physiological response to threat (which has since been cited more than 500 times), then more recently desk-rejected a failed replication with a sample size 4 times as large https://slate.com/technology/2019/06/science-replication-conservatives-liberals-reacting-to-threats.amp   Permalink 1:34 PM – 24 Jun 2019

@PaulSkallas I remember when I attended. You leave drained. Beat up. The benefits come later. Parts of it stick with you. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1143190040153153537   Permalink 1:29 PM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Lunch pic.twitter.com/tVG0ximuBz Permalink 10:01 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb #RWRI in new location, RWRI-11 pic.twitter.com/whI5DOpZxJ Permalink 9:11 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Hawks are low-intellect, low-experience, low-skills people; if laid off, unusable in real-life, not even to wash you car. The absence of the #skininthegame filtering degrades decision-making. https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1143011525684322305   Permalink 2:55 AM – 24 Jun 2019

@nntaleb So, far, thanks to twitter, the definition is improving. pic.twitter.com/yfK6QKuoaY Permalink 9:24 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Friends, please tear apart my definition of verbalism. pic.twitter.com/zvDhPcW78X Permalink 7:40 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb FOR DISCUSSION, some definitions: Xenophobia ⧣ racism, even if it correlates. Xenophobia has gradations from indirect (homophilia/love for your family) to direct (state borders). Racism=considering that some races have, genetically, INFERIOR intellectual or moral attributes. Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@nntaleb To repeat: Skin in the Game is not, as Nudgeboy Thaler @R_Thaler & that picklebrain @CFCamerer say, an incentive that makes you perform better. It is, simply, a filter that operates on the collective. https://twitter.com/ArthurB/status/1142719660812591104   Permalink 3:17 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@maxmarotti Important discovery at Amioun #Lebanon by LEB-ITA archeological team coordinated by Universita’ Udine @uniud & funded by @ItalyMFA . Amioun now proven an inhabited city since early bronze age , 3300 BC . @nntaleb @ItalyinLebanon pic.twitter.com/C5RQukAbXv Permalink 3:01 AM – 23 Jun 2019

@LieraMarco The dignity of a Mediterranean man selling his crops in Southern Italy. For centuries these people have taken care of themselves regardless of economic “growth” 1/2 ⁦@nntaleb⁩ pic.twitter.com/YgXP5O2LQc Permalink 3:56 PM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb An example of retrospective bigoteering: flowing today’s standards backward in time, and not realizing it. https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1142431943352623104   Permalink 9:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@Neanderthoughts Yes, making explicit the criteria for exposing hidden assumptions in “verbalism” is essential for minimizing political insanity. Especially now with inflammatory social media. Permalink 7:36 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb For some obscure reason Italian archeologists are interested in Amioun my ancestral village! Progetto Archeologico Libano Settentrionale (PALiS/ NoLeP) https://youtu.be/DecPfJbzWE4   via @YouTube Permalink 7:33 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The 5 volume Incerto is here! Very heavy, you can use for exercise. pic.twitter.com/8kvZbUaMYI Permalink 5:56 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Nobody understand what “racism” & “xenophobia” mean. Everything is SCALE dependent. Arab tribes slaughter groups > (say) 5, welcome groups <5 with yuuge hospitality. Get rid of verbalism in Principia (next book). Avoid Pol Sci/Journo BS. https://www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/uAIzMDmJ7R”>  pic.twitter.com/uAIzMDmJ7R Permalink 5:47 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@diomavro Alright its takeoff time! Going to NY to attend #RWRI for 5 days! Excited to meet @nntaleb in person. Talebs books helped me embrace my Mediterranean attitude and put me back on the Orthodox trail. Hopefully will also get to meet some of the crew I’ve been stalking. Permalink 3:51 AM – 22 Jun 2019

@nntaleb 2) From experiene, I can’t find any (nonweight bearing) exercise that makes you go all out and raises the heart rate as much as running uphill (on a mild hill). And it is exhilarating. Permalink 5:08 PM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb TOPIC FOR DISCUSSION: Run a mile in mildly hilly terrain at least once a week, as fast as you can. Make sure you run completely out of breath on the local top of the hill. Do not run an inch more. Never slowly. Discuss. @GuruAnaerobic @VergilDen Permalink 5:01 PM – 21 Jun 2019

@Wayland_J_Blue @nntaleb you preach statistics in Homeric language. You helped me to understand that what the ancients lacked in sophistry, they had in wisdom 77 fold Permalink 10:40 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@willchamberlain Bush administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Iraq War Obama administration officials are responsible for the catastrophically stupid Libyan intervention And they have the chutzpah to critique Trump for CALLING OFF an Iran strike? Lunatics Permalink 7:06 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb People with skin in the game are fundamentally localist. Empty suits in DC are not. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Some clarity: DEFENSE is when you defend your country at, or near, your borders. Not when you fight people several time zones away. Find another name for this “DEFENSE” spending. Permalink 3:04 PM – 20 Jun 2019

@antemachina “La modélisation ne peut pas être illimitée, car quelle que soit la vitesse et l’architecture de traitement de données d’un ordinateur, l’augmentation des dimensions à paramétrer excède assez vite toute possibilité de calcul.” Sur l’IA. Personne ne va retweeter ce message. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I will the local Orthodox priest… https://twitter.com/vonkronstadt/status/1141772135158992896   Permalink 11:29 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Social scientists use correlation not knowing what it means. Then they say they are “empirical”. pic.twitter.com/eKYodnjxxq Permalink 11:24 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb All psychology is effectively useless. A correlation of .35, even when not circular, reduces uncertainty by 0 adjusting the noise & error propagation. https://twitter.com/meistrephilipos/status/1141541837339090944   Permalink 11:13 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists are spreading a post “debunking my empirical claims” saying “but there is correlation”. They aren’t smart enough to get my claim that data has “correlation”. But It’s meaningless, circular, noisy, nonadditive & under nonlinearitiees, fails. https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39   Permalink 11:07 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@yaneerbaryam How can we prevent ethnic violence? Instead of forcing people to move so that they are mixed or separated, introducing well-defined boundaries that allow for more local autonomy can enable peaceful coexistence. #WorldRefugeeDay https://necsi.edu/solving-ethnic-violence   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/noIZtUHvtJ”>  pic.twitter.com/noIZtUHvtJ Permalink 9:33 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@manukankani One of the best explanation on socialism and capitalism in one minute by @naval cc: @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/LvFd5s3I1z Permalink 1:14 AM – 20 Jun 2019

@Mangan150 Strange how following mainstream health advice like eating plant-based, using seed oils, avoiding the sun, and taking a statin will turn you into a shell of a human being. Can that be a coincidence? Permalink 6:54 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@TalebWisdom “Never argue with people in private (you will not convince them); argue in public to convince others.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink 3:39 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Seed oil is not #Lindy. As with transfats idiots are still using it as “healthy alternative”, particularly in France. Even in Belgium they use it as replacement for tallow. Same mistake twice! https://twitter.com/blakeburris/status/1141404419231113216   Permalink 3:36 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@drjasonfung An Anti-Aging Pill? Think Twice https://nyti.ms/2FkqSq5   Permalink 3:33 PM – 19 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The best training you can offer yourself is detecting circularity. It teaches you to think not just forward in 2nd, 3rd steps, but backward in minus 1st, 2nd steps, etc. Modernity is full of circularities (education, citation rings, journalism, classifications, IQ, psychology…) Permalink 6:00 AM – 19 Jun 2019

@EHSANI22 This book catalogues how a significant part of spoken Arabic in #Aleppo #Syria is originally Assyrian / Aramaic This also covers many the small towns and villages including Afrin , Manbej, Shougour and Ma’ara (All are Assyrian / Aramaic words) The total list is astounding pic.twitter.com/AEbdafgq83 Permalink 4:29 PM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb I am honored to be on the U.S. watchlist. https://twitter.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1140980698486120448   Permalink 6:55 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Most frequent comments when I run into someone: 1) Are you “working on” another book? No, it’s all one book. All Merged. And it’s not work 2) You look thinner in person than in pictures 3) You seem much, much less of an asshole than in your Twitter feed Permalink 5:03 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Psychologists there are frauds. This is the type of work they do. They just show the resulting plot line. pic.twitter.com/3jqftuP116 Permalink 4:59 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Weeks away from shipping Incerto (5-volume Hardcover Box Set) https://www.amazon.com/dp/198481981X/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_U_x_d1mcDbXQGB9AF   Permalink 4:39 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb FORECASTING SHOULD BE IN REAL LIFE Foreword for the @spyrosmakrid M4 competition. We are now working on the M5 competition which should be the mother of all forecasting checks! pic.twitter.com/IGdS7U2iy3 Permalink 3:36 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb In other words, if you took 2 IQ tests there will be a variation. Such variation is BIGGER than the one you’d get from the effect ! (Not counting the circularity that good test takers tend to get degrees so they get some jobs without necessarily performing better). FRAUD Permalink 3:12 AM – 18 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The article is a (naive) fraud. They show a line, not a cloud of points so we don’t see the variance & the gaming. But these idiots (psychologists) proved the following: if in spite of the circularity, the diff betw 55 and 130 is so small for the variance, IQ is just hot air. https://twitter.com/ROBERTO_COLOM/status/1140707195161645056   Permalink 1:52 PM – 17 Jun 2019

@SeyyAli_Mirzaei #Proud to speak @googlecloud on the importance of being #AntiFragile (@nntaleb) learning/growing from chaos at @gcdcislamabad @TensorFlow @googledevs. Thrilled & inspired to see more #women in #Tech space in #Pakistan. T-shirt reads: “Less gender roles, more paratha rolls!” https://twitter.com/CynthiaDRitchie/status/1140671573277495296   Permalink 10:46 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@gbponz Rep. Tulsi Gabbard opposes impeachment and dislikes identity politics. And she’s running for president, writes @mtracey https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-hawaii-democrats-surprising-views-11560714036?shareToken=ste65d586625d3416b994206c9783a1b9c   di @WSJ @nntaleb Permalink 6:19 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Incerto so far is 2000 pages long. It is the summary. I doubt there is a shorter summary of the Incerto than the Incerto. Permalink 4:27 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb There’s no such thing as “scientific evidence showing safety” but somethg called “failure to reject” at some significance which was NEVER done for GMOs as Monsanto spent more energy smearing critics than testing. Journalists are carriers of charlatanism. https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/lhymv1sQdC”>  pic.twitter.com/lhymv1sQdC Permalink 2:22 AM – 17 Jun 2019

@nntaleb This crap was promoted into my feed. If a book can be summarized, it’s not a book but a magazine article; don’t read it and don’t read its summary. https://twitter.com/blinkist/status/1024238241585790976   Permalink 11:42 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Syrians in Lebanon: no advice without skin in the game. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1123192807429169154   Permalink 5:15 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@LieraMarco You don’t need a psychologist to save a guy who wants to commit sucide. A truck driver is much more effective. @nntaleb https://milano.corriere.it/19_giugno_16/gabriel-camionista-che-ha-salvato-ragazzo-cavalcavia-non-sono-eroe-0fd25fe0-8fb3-11e9-88d7-b66be71f5fe3.shtml   Permalink 5:12 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@spectatorindex Oldest cities in the world. 1. Jericho, Palestinian Ter. 2. Byblos, Lebanon 3. Aleppo, Syria 4. Damascus, Syria 5. Susa, Iran 6. Faiyum, Egypt 7. Sidon, Lebanon 8. Plovdiv, Bulgaria 9. Gaziantep, Turkey 10. Beirut, Lebanon (Telegraph) Longer list: https://www.instagram.com/p/ByxJ5aQD7CR/   Permalink 3:56 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb The Lebanese government is always accused of racism by first order bigoteers (with no SITG) whenever they discuss the case of Syrian refugees (close to 20–30% of the population), then put on the defensive having to explain “they are not racist, but”. https://medium.com/incerto/pedophrasty-bigoteering-and-other-modern-scams-c84bd70a29e8?postPublishedType=repub   Permalink 2:49 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@nntaleb Large governments are weapon merchants: UK, US, France, Russia. Foreign “policy” is dictated by weapons manufacturers. The press (@tomfriedman , @BretStephensNYT) are just marketing agents, something effective under the name “democracy”. Which is why we need @TulsiGabbard Permalink 2:07 AM – 16 Jun 2019

@datenverstehen @nntaleb apparently localism is on the rise in UK Permalink 8:01 AM – 15 Jun 2019

TECHNICAL INCERTO, Dawkins, Haass, Friedman, Zakaria, Alexander Bogomolny, GMOs, Ron Paul, Soccer | Twitter

@financequant “I believe that we should read only those books that wound and stab us. If a book we are reading does not rouse us with a blow to the head, then why read it? A book must be the axe for the frozen sea inside us.”–Franz Kafka Permalink 2:43 PM – 20 Jul 2018

@NebojsaMalic You BOMBED Montenegro in 1999 as commander of NATO, you nitwit. https://twitter.com/GeneralClark/status/1019605472205295616   Permalink 10:43 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This time on ….phenomenology! The cartoonist is good but doesn’t get that weightlifters are NOT thin in the waist. https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1020291741994430466   Permalink 6:57 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Since I am typesetting, we have aesthetic questions. Is the format I use for my own books OK? Or fixing the Maestro’s own original fonts? https://www.dropbox.com/s/hslpj8xcqtszmvv/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%202.pdf?dl=0   Please let me know. Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) (Ppple involved: @MarcosCarreira @gcfr20 @mikeandallie @octonion @SvetlanaBogom13 ) My feeling is: we do not need to complete many tutorial appendices since these are standard: pple find them on the web just as they did to solve pblms. (for instance I don’t use one for mine) Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) BOGOMOLNY FRIDAY SYMPOSIUM Alex left us 13 days ago. I have the PDF of the @CutTheKnotMath’s book Probability Riddles; working on completing it posthumously. Need comments on these sections (pics). https://www.dropbox.com/s/wcme0ib93t4bozn/Probability_Riddles.pdf?dl=0   @republicofmath @ProbFact @octonion @erugli ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/S40ItFJMxi”>  pic.twitter.com/S40ItFJMxi Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yarmouk is where the Byzantines lost the battle to the Arabs 13C ago. The new Byzantium has some work to do. https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/1020142300180213760   Permalink 8:43 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He came to talk population genetics/probability. I took him to the gym instead and forced him to deadlift. He had never done it before. He is very confused about the visit. https://twitter.com/pzalloua/status/1020068134886232065   Permalink 3:51 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Never ever criticize anyone (say a politician) for doing something that you would be silent about if someone else did it. You would be insulting your audience, insulting truth, insulting the medium you are using, insulting ethics. Permalink 11:38 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved… https://twitter.com/roguishwisdom/status/1020001246248341504   Permalink 11:03 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yes the seeds of skin in the game in 2002: never read anything on doing by nondoers. https://twitter.com/mc_macro/status/1019973430601322498   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So the TECHNICAL INCERTO is online: VOL1- The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails https://www.dropbox.com/s/bq2lhmoo9v686ap/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%201.pdf?dl=0   VOL2- Convexity, Risk, and Fragility (in progress) https://www.dropbox.com/s/hslpj8xcqtszmvv/Technical%20Incerto%20Vol%202.pdf?dl=0   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/ee2wQ07MVV”>  pic.twitter.com/ee2wQ07MVV Permalink 7:01 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Congrats to @BakhtadzeMamuka for becoming Prime Minister of Georgia, and indeed, let Georgia, the root of Europe and the Mediterranean (i.e. Western Eurasia), become part of modern-day Europe via cultural and economic integration. https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1019916527959707648   Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb My point is: That highly unrigorous science journalist @RichardDawkins can say “Listen I would like to preserve my culture” without insulting other people’s aesthetics. Permalink 5:35 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Note: This is not for my benefit but a public service warning –since I will never set foot there. (Nor was I financially hurt since I was the guest at a business dinner.) Permalink 7:08 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I spent my childhood in the Christian neighborhood in Beirut listening to both the bells (older churches than Dawkins’) and the muezzin in the distance. It taught me that tolerance is when you get that: The Other likes the aesthetics of his rituals as much as you do yours. https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1018933359978909696   Permalink 6:54 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Is it against NYC law to refuse to serve tap water? (Some pple have a rule to never drink nonlocal water) Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Nusr-Et in NY. Never ever again. They don’t even serve local tap water. Overrrrrrrrrrpriced. pic.twitter.com/oBCmFEiQbV Permalink 4:21 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@JeanMessiha En Algérie, des femmes bravent l’obscurantisme avec la modernité du bikini ; en France, des femmes bravent la modernité avec l’obscurantisme du burkini… https://observalgerie.com/actualite-algerie/societe/ces-algeriennes-qui-simposent-en-bikini/   Permalink 11:51 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This is hilarious. Every time someone (of the type to live with their mother at age 52) tells me that “Trump is dumb”… https://twitter.com/Viatcheslavsos3/status/1019631566522322944   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@DaxThoughts Nothing makes me (1) feel worse about myself (2) want to learn a ton of information NOW, Than reading @nntaleb’s papers It’s an extremely humbling process. Permalink 4:18 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And they are still not getting why this “evidence” is pseudoscience. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/health/psychology-studies-stanford-prison.html   Permalink 4:12 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The thread explains why most of the papers with “empirical evidence” using “correlations” and “p-values” are BS. Actually, in some fields, almost all papers are BS but you need to look deep into the statistics. The p-value hacking paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532.pdf   https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1019229442609221632   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2018

@CeddChad Courtesans and Fishcakes opened my eyes to Med culture and how we Northerners are so different. Yours has been the only reference I have ever seen to it. Permalink 11:34 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Journos thrive on wars and tensions (like the press magnate in the Bond movie who fomented wars to sell papers) (Asymmetric payoff: they don’t bear the costs, particularly if harm is in foreign countries) Regular citizens don’t care about geopolitics. https://medium.com/incerto/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac   Permalink 11:06 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And prosperity is best achieved by preventing bureaucrats from interfering with things they will never understand. Permalink 9:50 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that the job of the government is to deliver Peace and Prosperity. Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@marcus_minus Espèce de charlatan incompétent… je vous invite à lire @nntaleb avant de dire de tels conneries. Et dire que nous avons des cancres comme vs pour parler de transhumanisme, d’OGM et d’investissement d’avenir. #charlatan Permalink 7:00 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Based on the reactions, the definition of a “dictator with divergent values” is someone who does not buy weapons from U.S. based arms manufacturers. Permalink 8:06 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@daniel_bilar Pre-asymptotics & fat tails: Operational & heuristic metrics to compare n-summed independent vars under all distributions w finite first moment by @nntaleb http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   [“how much data one needs to make meaningful statements”, ‘speed’ of the law of large numbers] ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cZ3SroVpec”>  pic.twitter.com/cZ3SroVpec Permalink 5:39 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 This is getting ridiculous. What a day. Share values ? I didn’t see you complaining when he sword danced in #Saudi https://twitter.com/newshour/status/1018990464676970496   Permalink 3:59 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It took 5 volumes to get the main point: “The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty about what one should do about it.” pic.twitter.com/XodgKD7QrV Permalink 1:53 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One is allowed to reveal the low IQ of these pseudo-experts s.a. @RichardHaass, @tomfriedman or @FareedZakaria is because, while clueless abt complex interactions & basic properties, they feel empowered to lecture others on what to do. They shd driving Ubers not more. Permalink 12:01 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Actually excellent partying as preliminary preparation to the theorezing. pic.twitter.com/mdR0oQNFPC Permalink 11:49 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The main problem that plague GMO idiots is that they don’t get that 1) interractions in an environment are not predictable 2) that they NEED to be predicted (no organism is isolated) https://twitter.com/freud_fjell/status/1018919146044747776   Permalink 11:07 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Surprised? https://twitter.com/statnews/status/1018873225206525952   Permalink 10:23 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Promoting the ideas of Jane Jacobs (and her books) on organic urbanism —with Minister @HardeepSPuri in charge of building tens of millions of homes in the next 5 years. pic.twitter.com/gV6YwcvhHs Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb To have a real “deep state” you need the intelligence of a Professor Moriarty or the craftiness of a Colbert. Not a collection of hand-to-mouth bureaucrats. Gabish? Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One lesson from recent militarism: 1- There may exist ~a “deep state”, but it isn’t organized, rather a spontaneous league of useful idiots 2- The most representative is that *low-IQ BS Vendor*, @RichardHaass, so you can see it’s composed of real losers https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1018245342989516805   Permalink 6:16 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Like Saudi Arabia. https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1018815528704593920   Permalink 5:00 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends; now the question is whether to use Roman or “Arabic” (Indian) numerals. pic.twitter.com/ncLcWlJYWi Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@Jaffer22915438 One last tweet before I do something more useful. Flashback to when right wingnuts called Reagan a “Useful Idiot” for meeting with Soviet Union…today, Democrats assuming posture: http://articles.latimes.com/1987-12-05/news/mn-6395_1_president-reagan   Permalink 4:19 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Needs to be random. Like IRS audits. https://twitter.com/stianchrister/status/1018585629230170113   Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Make sure your income does not depend on your reputation. 2) Find 4-5 perpetrators and hound them for the rest of their life. Particularly 4 years later when they expect it the least. 3) Let others see what you are doing to the few smearers. Example http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   https://twitter.com/Once_there_was_/status/1018547404931362817   Permalink 12:53 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In the past, the weapons industry would have right wing warmongers shill for them & perpetuate states of bellicosity. They got smarter. They now enlist shills who managed to label themselves on the “left”. Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) And no, @elonmusk/@Tesla are not fully antifragile: they depends on shareholders, which is the reason smear campaigns are active. They are directed at the shareholders. But they can show evidence of smear campaign (there is) using my Tesla/NonTesla test. Permalink 7:55 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The principle in Fooled by Randomness is that we react to 1st order; we are manipulated into seeing events separated from statistical context. For instance: my discipline every time I hear Trump did smthing cruel (e.g. children) to check if NonTrump did same. (Obama did). Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Thread: @ElonMusk, victim of a smear campaign. + @Tesla car catches fire. Nobody reports on >150K yearly nonTesla cars fires? + Musk took public $, not great (returned). How about OTHER companies that got pub. $$? + Musk “is a billionaire”. How abt other billionaires? https://twitter.com/web/status/1018503499091464192   Permalink 7:46 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb cc:@HardeepSPuri https://twitter.com/Jimmy_Rosen/status/1018495695815434241   Permalink 7:15 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 6) Diplomats and politicians with no SITG cause more trouble than they solve with things like Israel/Palestine and Syria. Taleb thinks that people with SITG care more about having good food, drink, and weather at their family parties than geopolitics or grand principles: no SITG Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 1) Recently finished @nntaleb’s Skin in the Game. Like others (@naval) who have had their worldviews shifted by Taleb’s writings on probability, randomness, and society in general, SITG changed how I think about numerous parts of the economy and society. Some takeaways: Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 14 problems coming from the misunderstanding of fat tails by professional statisticians/quants/economists etc. pic.twitter.com/rIFZf89r9i Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One of the last pictures of Maestro, birdwatching (courtesy: his niece). pic.twitter.com/3ym2Jm3QlH Permalink 6:18 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb SUMMARY OF THE BOOK A statistician: Of course we understand fat tails. The author: No you don’t. pic.twitter.com/YqbSvulpfd Permalink 2:42 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INTERDICTS A passage in The Black Swan about how grandmother elephants have authority… A senator is literally an aged person… pic.twitter.com/B7nnQDzK0M Permalink 10:34 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking pple who nitpick aphorisms as if they were literal scientific claims; some call them “gross generalization”; some even complain that there is no backup… Since I’ve been doing it, the quality of my feed/discussions improved considerably. #ViaNegativa https://twitter.com/normonics/status/1018178698242117639   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So for the nomenclatura, ageism is not bigotry (check w/intellectual fraudster @NickCohen4). Aside from selective bigoteering, they haven’t yet discovered that respect for the elder if shared by practically every civilization (Meds, Semites, Chinese,…) for #LindyEffect https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/1017842202263916549   Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters This problem dedicated to the Memory of our friend Alexander Bogomolny. @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math pic.twitter.com/pFepfWfNDb Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb What identity activists & the Stalinist pol police are doing to us is making us see someone as “person from race/gender/orientation (X,Y,Z)” instead of just seeing “Joe”, “Wang”or “Cunégonde”. Nothing short of alienation. #AbstractUniversalism is the arch-enemy of humanism. Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Jul 2018

@Mehdi_IR_DC It’s so funny to see “progressive” ppl being offended by Trump “disrespecting” the Queen; the very person who believes she is superior than the rest cuz of her blood. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The “Black” Kazars the “Northern” Kazars? Avoid confusion. For discussion: @peterfrankopan @GhassanDahhan https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1017815603778867201   Permalink 10:14 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Question: Is there a reason I did not lose followers? Is the process still going? Permalink 6:40 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For Christmas, a formal edition of the INCERTO (gold leaf etc.). Now 5 volumes. Now working on the (so far) 2 volumes of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. pic.twitter.com/KFUzHPl0Qa Permalink 6:11 AM – 12 Jul 2018

@nntaleb While the business of historians is faithful description of the past, @peterfrankopan specializes in faithful descriptions of the future. https://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/1017106103811919872   Permalink 1:44 PM – 11 Jul 2018

@RonPaul *Special Announcement* Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) To Speak At Ron Paul Institute Conference 2018!! pic.twitter.com/PQmzJRmj6e Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@SS_strength “My understanding of this concept has improved, thanks to my friend Nassim Nicholas Taleb, so I thought I’d share it with you.” https://startingstrength.com/article/the-phenomenology-of-barbell-training   Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Oh my Baal! Chased my Monsanto! https://twitter.com/black_swan_man/status/1017074409838927880   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@black_swan_man Page 5… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture #grassfed pic.twitter.com/eaQL6sx4Yg Permalink 8:53 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it. Permalink 5:45 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@mikeandallie (2/4) It is memorable not just for being a good problem but also for illustrating the amazing interaction between Bogomolny and Nassim Taleb. Taleb’s approach always got to the heart of the puzzle quickly and showed me how to share seemingly very advanced problems with kids. pic.twitter.com/csAYIcSXFF Permalink 4:37 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@ClintEhrlich 1st time one reads @nntaleb: Geez, this guy is a dick. So f-ing arrogant! 2nd time: Ok, he’s right. But why does he have to be so rude about it? 3rd time: Taleb is a true gentleman. He makes all the right enemies. https://twitter.com/anandk_00/status/1016694279824031744   Permalink 5:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Something abt Maestro Bogomolny’s @CutTheKnotMath mathematical purity I can now reveal. He had a hearing pblm (0% in ear, ~ in oth.) not remediable using aids. He left academia as he couldn’t communicate. He did math for math, not as a career. He wanted his site to make no $. Permalink 3:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@Steveonomics My favorite LinkedIn comment regarding @SouthwestAir banning peanuts. @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/bYx2vQvdGj Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Whole Book in PRogress https://www.dropbox.com/s/x15o6padci0bwgi/Collected.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 2:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb LIMIT DISTRIBUTIONS, a Tutorial (Chapter in the Technical INCERTO) pic.twitter.com/gyJAQ1g6un Permalink 2:15 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@TheLikevillePod @nntaleb talks with the @TheLikevillePod about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, how intellectual-yet-idiots get us into trouble, and much else. https://overcast.fm/+MApFBBGos   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2EBrLwHsAI”>  pic.twitter.com/2EBrLwHsAI Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Excellent response. Doers and Risk Takers >>>Tawkers. Period. #SkinintheGame https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016731812159254529   Permalink 10:46 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In Russian, competitor is конкурент (as in French “concurrent”, Italian “concorrente” cc: @mathieuhelie ), a co-runner. There is no implication of antagonism. You need a “concurrent” because you do not engage in a race against yourself. Permalink 8:25 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@anandk_00 1st time one reads Taleb: it sounds true. 2nd time: one starts being aware of the concepts in operation in ones life, and in general, the world. 3rd time: one wonders how did he/she not get the beauty in the 1st reading itself. Permalink 7:43 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1016675211729670146   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@ThomasSowell “There is much discussion of the haves and the have-nots, but very little discussion of the doers and the do-nots, those who contribute and those who merely take.” Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters @CutTheKnotMath Alexander, I know that you are up there in heaven and I hear there is a wifi connection set up there. So you should be able to tweet your #Math problems to us. We’re getting desperate down here. @nntaleb Permalink 4:13 PM – 9 Jul 2018

@diomavro I can honestly say I’ve learned more about probability and recursion from Alexander than the accumulation of all my university classes. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1015928573411119104   Permalink 5:45 AM – 9 Jul 2018

@GWeynerowski @Likeville hits it out of the park again. This is another fascinating, entertaining conversation led by @john_f_hamer that will make you see the world anew. And as for you, @nntaleb, quit blowing my mind! https://twitter.com/TheLikevillePod/status/1016100679583174657   Permalink 4:55 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb If someone wants a ride w/me, pls mention. I am leaving from Westchester. Permalink 2:18 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb From the family: All meet at Floral Park Cemetery at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow 7/9/2018, 104 Deans Rhode Hall Road, Monmouth Junction, NJ 08852. Tel 732-297-2336. Then ” everyone is welcome in our house afterwards […], East Brunswick, NJ” Permalink 2:15 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 6) The Anachronistic Fallacy, 2 You cannot flow today’s rules of morality backward in time & judge people THEN based on rules developed later. Morality comes from customs (mores). No law should be retroactive, something the bigoteers don’t get. Permalink 9:56 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Had the fellow applied this formidable cunning & astuteness to business he would have been montrously successful. https://nyti.ms/2KFCcOh   Permalink 8:51 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Soccer is fundamentally a high variance game. https://twitter.com/Mehdi_IR_DC/status/1013792319550705665   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 5) THE ANACHRONISTIC FALLACY Injustice was done in the past with invasions, etc. But justice cannot operate without STATUTES of LIMITATIONS: we can’t invoke the Pilgrims, w/o going back to Bronze Age migrations. Arguments abt who did what >100 y ago are necessarily invalid. Permalink 5:32 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) Immigration requires sacrifice and skin in the game. pic.twitter.com/djbetZXJBP Permalink 5:15 AM – 2 Jul 2018

Piketty, Schmugman, Qatar, Dawkins, British Airways, Saudi Arabia | Twitter

@LorenzoWVilla Very nice ‘probability’ problem from @CutTheKnotMath (http://www.cut-the-knot.org  ): see below @nntaleb ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/YuWaojc9Kg”>  pic.twitter.com/YuWaojc9Kg Permalink 9:50 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In other words, methods used to state that people & investors underestimate tail events by psychologists and economists are severely flawed.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/874227041746509824   Permalink 6:02 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The empirical distribution is … not empirical https://youtu.be/0iw9oqnhVKQ   via @YouTube Permalink 4:29 AM – 12 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Same problem as Fooled by Randomness & Big Data fitting. The degrees of freedom from man -> crime >> those from crime -> man. (corrected)https://twitter.com/AlanDersh/status/874023573148622848   Permalink 6:32 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@jtynen Taleb is right and shows where we went wrong.. USA was supposed to be 50 … … states! Not 50 provinces or admin. districts … states!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/873990014765592577   Permalink 6:28 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Science isn’t what’s right/wrong. It is what you can backup using a certain method. Applying science outside is “scientism”, a fraud. #GMOs Permalink 2:33 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb A scaling property: the larger the state, the more disproportionately powerful the state-within-the-state (a.k.a. deep state). Permalink 12:47 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The sucker overestimates the value of secret information when the important stuff is that huge elephant in front if us all. Permalink 12:25 PM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling: you give with noise, you take quietly.https://twitter.com/KenMcCarthy/status/873938173319147522   Permalink 10:01 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In 19th C converting was not punishable by death: many politicians took the religion of their constituents (Shehabs, Hashem, etc.) Permalink 4:58 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb 150 y ago protestant missionaries started ~AUB in Beirut. They converted exactly 0 Sunnis, only Greek-Orth pple. Preaching does not work. Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb This technical is an appendix for a more general dynamic approach to inequalityhttps://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Polishing a Gini paper… Why Piketty & Schmugman estimations of inequality are fundamentally flawed. Kapish? https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Gini_paper_andrea_version_2%28NNT%29.pdf   Permalink 3:55 PM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Fractal planting patterns yield optimal harvests, without central control http://phy.so/416233569   via @physorg_com Permalink 10:11 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb A large element of the Syrian war is geopolitics (SaudiBarbaria Qatar, US State Dept). That part may be gone.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/873575425037021184   Permalink 9:37 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Indeed, Twitter reveals the person. I have always had mild contempt for “intellectuals”.I now despise them as default, unless proven othrwsehttps://twitter.com/ExMagisterLudi/status/873514934478483456   Permalink 6:13 AM – 10 Jun 2017

@Cernovich No “skin in the game,” as @nntaleb would say. There’s no penalty for being wrong, no job loss, no risk. Must be nice.https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/873131220611321856   Permalink 3:16 PM – 9 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal “Tinkering is better than Pinckering” -d5 #realworldrisk- w/ @nntaleb & Raphael -title & errors fully owned. pic.twitter.com/ClgqQcC4Zq Permalink 10:19 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb Here we go with a functional equation: proof is needed! :) pic.twitter.com/lkCyHFzdBT Permalink 9:35 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@IntheNow_tweet Saudi Arabia ditching Qatar over terrorism is like McDonalds accusing Burger King of selling junk food @AnissaNow pic.twitter.com/rgmHQ3k99D Permalink 8:00 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Philology du jour: Livanos in Greek (frankincense) comes from olibanum, from Hebrew: לבונה [levona] => the white. Permalink 3:33 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@MaxAbrahms No, that’s been clear for a really long time, as I’ve been saying for a really long time.https://twitter.com/guardianus/status/872855071305936896   Permalink 2:13 AM – 9 Jun 2017

@nntaleb j2 Caucasus-> Anatolia-> Levant-> Etruscan-> Graeco-Mediterranean Except for Levant Indo-European linguisticallyhttp://www.eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_J2_Y-DNA.shtml   Permalink 5:37 PM – 8 Jun 2017

@nntaleb J2 statisticallt, the Roman army genehttps://twitter.com/vonkronstadt/status/872942896000978945   Permalink 4:34 PM – 8 Jun 2017

@nntaleb What weakened the mafia was internecine fighting. Mobs always fight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Mafia_War#The_Great_Mafia_War   Permalink 9:21 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb @VergilDen Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb If someone’s insults’ bother you; it is evidence that you respect him. Permalink 9:13 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb RWRI day 3. 55 participants. Raphael will start confusing them with poly probability models. pic.twitter.com/CLzPglfFeH Permalink 6:05 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The true story about Qatar is money when badly needed: They have a tiny fraction of the population of KSA with ~same financial reserves. Permalink 5:32 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@nntaleb It is impressive how Trump hatred can make some people like @KenRoth rational, realistic, & lucid.https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/872116717991931904   Permalink 4:55 AM – 7 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal Lindy effect and implications to technology – day 2 sketch notes /real world risk w/ @nntaleb/ – all errors r mine. pic.twitter.com/mkTZIghj3h Permalink 9:06 PM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb IYI Dawkins doesn’t get that your bathroom is not trying to kill you. We need a filter for “intellectuals”.https://twitter.com/Konstant_V/status/872081628784451584   Permalink 8:02 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@dhavalpanchal Kickass start to day 2 of – real world risk institute – w/ @nntaleb – all mistakes r mine. pic.twitter.com/uWkagPxGlT Permalink 7:02 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@edsanin “The best virtue requires courage; accordingly it needs to be unpopular” https://medium.com/incerto/the-merchandising-of-virtue-b548762658f0   Go read anything from @nntaleb Permalink 5:50 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@holland_tom Although Roman history does suggest that crucifying them along major trunk roads might work as a deterrent…https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/871990040389443584   Permalink 4:56 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@GhassanDahhan I wonder why all the Qatari funded MENA experts have been so quiet since yesterday. They’re independent non-partisan analysts, no? Permalink 4:56 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The most shocking thing about Donald Trump’s Sadiq Khan tweet? He’s righthttps://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/donald-trumps-tweets-sadiq-khan-might-unacceptable-theyre-not-futile/   Permalink 4:08 AM – 6 Jun 2017

@nntaleb You are either deluded or a liar. Show me which probability class taught subexponential/fat tails 15 y ago. Likely to be both! Permalink 2:37 PM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb This Mooc explains why most “rational number crunching” abt terrorism is BS. Terrorism is REAL risk.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 8:00 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Probability du jour: a crisp demarcation betw thin and fat tails via max entropy. pic.twitter.com/88IYxe4oqQ Permalink 4:31 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb You don’t cure terror w/police; you reduce terror by NOT creating monsters, supporting Alqaeda in Syria/Libya & Wahabis in SaudiBarbariahttps://twitter.com/spectator/status/871687235787206656   Permalink 4:24 AM – 5 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Many “moderates” are closet Sunni Salafi defenders. They find a way to mitigate events. Despicable scum, this @OmairTAhmadhttps://twitter.com/OmairTAhmad/status/871375058748424192   Permalink 7:41 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@anonchickenshit The internet allowed impolite but extremely logical intellectuals to find each other and remake the world. 1/x Permalink 7:17 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb To my friends in the UK, some understanding of the minority rule in the midst of all this media BS could help.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15   Permalink 6:33 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Engaging with math on twitter causes unfollows; minimizes the intersection betw my followers & those of BS vendors s.a. @neiltyson .https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/871317257439334400   Permalink 6:06 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The best explanation of the British Airways debacle by Gene Callahan. #Antifragile pic.twitter.com/yWA3l4cVGh Permalink 4:59 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The fellow is a Shiite cleric. He is not an exception: they all say the same thing. They are the ones who suffered the most from Salafism.https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/869386075285856256   Permalink 4:05 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb False analogy: Irish wanted specific point. Salafis want to destroy you and your civilization.https://twitter.com/0xUID/status/831156444821073923   Permalink 3:57 AM – 4 Jun 2017

@nntaleb “If you want people to read a book, tell them it is overrated”. (Bed of Procrustes)https://twitter.com/SubsidiarityMan/status/871059535208820736   Permalink 10:49 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@trishankkarthik Taking an @nntaleb aphorism from BoP: the more the fake left tries to ignore race / gender / etc., the more they are obsessed by it. Permalink 8:34 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The reason genetic distance A⇿B shd not be symmetric (as is diff entropy): How much info to make a Frenchman out of a Greek ≠ Reverse Permalink 6:49 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb ISIS out of Raqqa will go twrds Saudi Arabia. I do not wish to destabilise SA. Just make them stop spreading of Salafism.https://twitter.com/ClancyReports/status/870980158609653760   Permalink 5:39 AM – 3 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The problem isn’t being on a salary. The problem is enjoying it. Permalink 2:45 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The shill is trying to make pple believe that either the Pope (or the Catholic author) is a “Hizbollah guy”. Might work in SaudiBarbaria…https://twitter.com/mohalsulami/status/870723345993650181   Permalink 12:40 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Even @ForeignAffairs now realizes Saudi Arabia is evil hidden under a facade of diplomacy.https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/870716791428857856   Permalink 12:33 PM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb The most pleasant phase is when the book suddenly starts to look like a book. You hold the MS as one & smooth it out pic.twitter.com/N4OXBe8ZNl Permalink 9:04 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Monsanto is doing the same scheme over here with other products, fooling the media & demonizing skeptics. Delenda Monsanto.https://twitter.com/garyruskin/status/870637946105286656   Permalink 6:58 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb In other words EVERY recipient of information has been historically a CONVEYER. Twitter reestablished #LindyEffecthttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 3:51 AM – 2 Jun 2017

@nntaleb Some good news. Papers are not Lindy. Info shd be 2-way as per social media, not controlled by monocultured group.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2624691   Permalink 3:42 AM – 2 Jun 2017